239 FXUS62 KTAE 131312 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 912 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 906 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 - Patchy fog is possible on Tuesday morning over the Florida Panhandle and Southeast Alabama, mainly west of the Choctawhatchee River. If encountering fog while driving, slow down, use low beam headlights, and increase braking distance. - Little or no rain is expected through this weekend. Drought conditions will worsen. Fire concerns will remain elevated. Use extreme caution with any outdoor burning. Please heed burn bans where they are in effect. - Above normal temperatures will continue through this weekend, with lower 90s likely late this week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 906 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Main change to the forecast was to lower dews a few degrees based on the latest hi-res guidance, resulting in mid-20s RH extending further southwestward through portions of the GA counties and the Eastern FL Panhandle/Big Bend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 141 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Little or no sensible change is expected today. A strong upper ridge will dominate our weather, keeping things warm and dry. Nothing more than flat fair weather cumulus are expected this afternoon. Some fog may form early this morning, then again early Tuesday morning, over the Panhandle and Southeast Alabama, mainly west of the Choctawhatchee River. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 141 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Through Saturday, a strong and amplified 500 mb ridge axis will remain aligned from the Yucatan across the FL Peninsula. Our 500 mb heights will remain high throughout this week, with the ensuing warm dry air aloft strongly capping the atmosphere. Precipitable Water (PW) values of 0.5 to 1.0 inches will be way too dry for any seabreeze convection. Under such a strong upper high, temperatures will run 5-10 degrees above normal, most notably the afternoon highs. Next Sunday, the ridge will flatten as a more significant upper trough progresses across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. A cold front will try to push south across the region, but it will be losing strength as it moves south across our region. Upper support will leave it behind, and it will be moving beneath an increasingly warm and dry mid-level air mass as it pushes south. Most ensemble members keep next Sunday dry. The low percentage that do show some rain keep it quite light... just a few mere hundredths of an inch. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 624 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Abundant high cirrus appears to be inhibiting any fog/low stratus development so far. Judging from dewpoint depressions, ECP and VLD are the only two sites with any such potential through about 13z-14z. Otherwise, the air mass is dry. Expect nothing more during the day than high-based fair weather cumulus, if at all. && .MARINE... Issued at 141 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 An Atlantic ridge axis will extend across South Georgia for most of this week, maintaining gentle to occasionally moderate southeast breezes, with nearshore seabreezes each afternoon. Late in the week, the ridge axis will settle south a little and set up more directly across the waters. Light and gentle southerlies will prevail then. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 141 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 The main story through next weekend will be the continued lack of rain. Drought conditions will continue worsening. Otherwise, a warm and dry air mass will be in place throughout this week. Light southerly flow will prevail, with stronger seabreezes becoming dominant each afternoon. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 141 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Little or no rainfall is expected through the next 7 days. Drought will continue or worsen. Flooding is not expected. For more local drought information & statements, visit the following websites: weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 83 58 86 58 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 79 59 81 61 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 84 56 87 58 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 84 57 87 59 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 85 58 89 59 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 86 57 88 57 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 74 61 76 63 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114- 115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Haner LONG TERM....Haner AVIATION...Haner MARINE...Haner FIRE WEATHER...Haner HYDROLOGY...Haner  566 FXUS61 KOKX 131313 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 913 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Small Craft Advisory has been expanded to include the western Long Island Sound and New York Harbor. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A noticeable warmup begins today. 2) The warmup becomes more widespread into mid week, peaking Wednesday into Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... A warm front pushes through during the first half of today with unsettled conditions remaining primarily north of the region, although some clouds hang around until midday. A return flow out of the SW sets up this afternoon with gusty winds primarily out of the SW, with hybrid sea breeze setting up with more of a pure southerly component to the flow for coastal sections, especially further east. This sets up a wide range in temperatures this afternoon with upper 50s for daytime maxes today for far eastern coastal sections, with upper 70s to around 80 closer to and west of the NYC metro. Northwestern LI and western portions of southern CT will likely get well into the 70s today beginning a significant warm up for the region. .KEY MESSAGE 2... 500 mb height will remain fairly steady state, with 570dm+ likely to remain in place through Thursday. The only question is how much of a southerly component to the sfc winds will take place and for how much of the region. For Tuesday and Wednesday a W to WSW wind should prevail through midday across the entire region. This will allow temperatures to climb quickly both days, even for most coastal sections. Then later during the afternoon hours a sea breeze should develop in response to the rapid warming and the winds at the sfc will become more southerly, and therefore temperatures should fall later in the day for coastal sections, but not before temperatures climb well above normal. Daytime maxes by Wednesday likely get into the upper 80s and maybe even touching 90 in the warmest locations across metro NE NJ. This is supported by 850 mb temperature forecast of 15-16 C. On a side note, the chance of showers and any convection appear to be low through mid week. Some CAM guidance is suggestive of a chance / slight chance of showers and a few thunderstorms late Tuesday into Tuesday evening. However, the best forcing looks to remain north of the region, thus the chances of convection and any impactful thunderstorm activity appear to be rather low at this time. && .AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure will continue to slide offshore overnight while a warm front passes to the north. Low pressure will pass well to the north later today. MVFR cigs should be longer lasting than originally anticipated, lasting until at least 14Z-15Z if not a little longer from the NYC metros north/west, and until 16Z-18Z east. KGON could still lower briefly to IFR for a couple of hrs from 16Z-18Z before low clouds scatter this afternoon. LLWS at KISP/KGON ends early. S winds will become SW 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt early, then WSW 15-20 kt with gusts 25-30 kt late. Peak winds mid to late afternoon could reach 20-25 kt with gusts 30-35 kt at KEWR/KLGA/KJFK. Winds should diminish after 00Z Tue. There could be some patchy fog late tonight but confidence in this scenario is low attm. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Unscheduled AMD possible to fine tune timing of flight categories and increase in winds today. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... Tuesday through Friday: Mainly VFR but with chance of afternoon and evening showers/tstms each day, mainly NW of the NYC metros, with brief flight cat reduction to MVFR. SW winds could gusts 15-20kt each afternoon Tue-Thu as well. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Small craft conditions are expected across all waters today with a gusty WSW to SW flow regime. Later tonight small craft conditions subside, first for the non-ocean waters during the evening, then later at night across the western ocean. By Tuesday AM sub advisory conditions will prevail across all waters. By late in the afternoon and early evening marginal small craft conditions are expected for the ocean and the south shore bays of LI, otherwise sub advisory conditions are expected. Marginal small craft conditions are expected to develop once again for the same locations late Wednesday and late Thursday in association with sea breeze development and a diurnal increase in southerly flow. Sub advisory conditions are anticipated Friday with ocean seas primarily around 3 ft. && .CLIMATE... Daily record high temperatures that could be reached: Wed April 15: KEWR: 88/1960 KBDR: 81/1960 KNYC: 87/1941 KLGA: 86/1941 KJFK: 80/2006 KISP: 78/2024 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331- 335-338. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ332- 340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ355. && $$ DISCUSSION...JE AVIATION...Goodman MARINE...JE/BR  795 FXAK68 PAFC 131315 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 515 AM AKDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)... A broad trough is in place over the Gulf with easterly shortwaves moving into the Copper Basin as a ridge builds over the Bering. This will lead to bimodal weather across southcentral as portions of the Copper Valley continue to get light snow showers while the western areas and Kodiak begin to clear out. Weather on Tuesday looks quite nice and seasonal region wide as a brief shortwave ridge moves overhead, producing sunny skies and temperatures in the 40s. A weak shortwave will ride overtop the ridge on Wednesday, producing some light valley rain and mountain snow ahead of a shift later in the week back to steadier rain and snow as a more significant trough moves in from the west. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Wednesday)... Across Southwest, an upper level trough is beginning to lose influence on surface conditions as it retreats south across the AKPen towards the western Gulf. Scattered snow showers are becoming more sparse, now mostly limited to higher terrain across parts of the Kuskokwim Mountains, Alaska Range and Aleutian Range. To the west, a weakening low moving over the Kamchatka Peninsula is sending a frontal system across much of the western and central Bering Sea today. A shield of cool cloud tops visible on GOES West infrared imagery is fanning out along across a zone of lift and moisture moving into the western Bering along and behind a warm frontal zone progressing northeast with time. Steady rain and gusty south winds are affecting much of the Aleutian Chain, except for the Fox Islands, where a transient surface high remains in place ahead of the approaching front. Looking ahead, the Bering front will be the main focus as it continues to trek across parts of the outlook area through Tuesday. The front will arrive in the Pribilofs later this afternoon, where things still look on track for a short period of snow before warming temperatures transition precipitation to rain later this evening. There could still be a short period of blowing snow and reduced visibility before temperatures rise above freezing, but it will be very short-lived. The front will continue into the AKPen and Southwest on Tuesday as it begins to weaken and occlude, spreading mainly snow across the region from west to east through Tuesday night. Some occasional mixing with rain is possible during the afternoon on Tuesday, especially along the coast. Any accumulation will be light, generally 1 to 3 inches or less through Wednesday morning. In the wake of the weakening front, a series of shortwave troughs will move into the Bering Sea as a more progressive, showery pattern takes hold towards midweek. Clusters of rain and snow showers will move across much of the greater Bering Sea region late Tuesday into Wednesday, especially near a more potent shortwave trough skirting along the Aleutian Chain for Wednesday. -AS && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday)... Days 4 through 7 look to be somewhat on the active side for mid- April with multiple systems bringing precipitation and cloud cover to the region. Broad upper-level troughing stretching from the Bering Sea to mainland Alaska will be in place to begin the period, placing the Aleutians and much of Southern Alaska in active quasi- southwest flow with embedded shortwaves. Kicking off the period on Thursday, precipitation will overspread much of Southcentral AK amid southwest flow. Models begin to really diverge by/after Friday, but ECMWF/CMC solutions are in general agreement with a strong low moving into the Bering from the North Pacific, bringing storm-force winds, waves, and general unsettled weather to the Aleutian Chain by the end of the week and into the weekend. While uncertainty in details is high, an upper-level low in place across mainland Alaska will continue to bring unsettled weather to Southcentral AK over the weekend into the start of next week. Temperatures will generally be near average. && .AVIATION... PANC...VFR conditions are expected today. Occasional gusts 15 to 20 mph are possible through the early morning hours. && $$  998 FXUS63 KIWX 131335 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 935 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Unseasonably warm temperatures expected through the work week with highs in the 70s and even some 80s at times. - There is a Marginal risk of severe storms today mainly from mid to late afternoon through this evening. Isolated large hail and isolated damaging wind gusts would be the main threats if storms develop. - The active period of weather continues Tuesday through Thursday with continued periodic higher chances of showers and storms. There is a Slight Risk of severe storms Tuesday late afternoon through the early overnight hours which represents the period of greatest severe weather potential. All severe hazards are possible including the potential of some locally heavy rainfall. Confidence in severe weather is lower for Wednesday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 935 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 While the overall forecast remains unchanged at the moment, we will be closely monitoring a mid level wave currently moving ne through Missouri with a small area of showers and storms. Several models are hinting at development later this afternoon (after 21Z) of at least isolated storms in association with this feature and an associated EML and steep lapse rates. Degree of destabilization is still in question with pockets of clearing ahead of the wave possibly limiting the threat. Based on the threat, SPC has expanded the slight risk for today into our area (west of I-69 and north of US-24) for a hail/wind threat. This is by no means a slam dunk, but will need to watch trends into this afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 330 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 The combination of a mid level short wave and broad advective forcing has sustained rain showers from west to east across the area this morning. Despite the decent moisture transport this morning, the strength of the low level thermal ridge has allowed for large enough low level dew point depressions to provide some enhancement to surface wind gusts in association with these showers. Fairly strong background flow (~40 knots in lowest gate of KIWX VWP data) has also mixed down fairly efficiently with these showers with some instances of 40-50 mph wind gusts. This potential should gradually wane over next few hours. Higher res guidance does indicate some renewed convective development on southern periphery of departing mid level wave, and where secondary low level theta-e ridge starts to nose into north central IN next few hours. This could yield a cluster of showers with perhaps embedded thunderstorms across northern IN/northwest OH early this morning through daybreak. Additional showers and storms are possible today, and the Storm Prediction Center has continued a Marginal Risk of severe storms for most of the forecast area. Some lull in scattered/showers storms is expected by mid morning, but will need to watch for possibility of weak mid level wave across Kansas as it reaches the western Great Lakes this evening. A renewed surge of stronger low level theta-e advection is expected to accompany this short wave with strongest advective forcing expected across northeast IL. The approach of this Central Plains wave will also mark the leading edge of stronger mid level lapse rates. While synoptic forcing does not appear strong today, destabilizing trends in thermodynamic environment with the steeper mid level lapse rates and the presence of the more distinct low/mid level theta-e boundary could provide a focus for at least an isolated severe threat late this afternoon into this evening. While greatest threat for isolated severe today may be north of US 30 as mid level speed max shifts across southern Great Lakes, hard to discount any location across forecast area given theta-e boundary will likely be hanging back a bit more to the south from northeast Illinois into the local area. MLCAPEs on the order of 1500-2000 J/kg, modest deep layer shear of 30 to 40 knots, and steep low level lapse rates could pose some threat of isolated damaging wind gusts in addition to large hail threat with steep mid level lapse rates. Some lull in thunder chances is expected early overnight, but may need to watch for possibility of remnants of stronger Great Lakes convection to propagate southward to the southern Great Lakes toward daybreak Tuesday. These storms could have some strong wind gusts persisting early Tuesday morning but confidence in this evolution is low. Tuesday/Tuesday night still appears to be the period of greatest concern for scattered severe storms and most of the forecast area remains in an SPC Day 2 Slight Risk for severe storms. The forecast challenge for this event remains on convective initiation portion of the event. Stronger mid/upper level forcing will likely be hanging back to the west across the Rockies as primary upper level wave begins to shear eastward. Best forcing mechanisms for convective initiation will be at nose of stronger low level flow and strong low level moisture convergence across NW IL/SW WI/NE IA. Will need to see if there is any remnant leftover boundary from early Tuesday Great Lakes convection that help overcome some surface based CIN for more of an isolated storm development locally during the early/mid afternoon hours. The expectation is still that discrete storm development across Mid MS Rvr Valley should tend to congeal across western/southern Great Lakes later evening Tuesday with strong component of shear parallel to the boundary. Greatest potential severe risks still appear to be large hail 1-2" in diameter given very steep mid level lapse rates and damaging wind gusts, with greatest potential of hail across the northwest which could be involved in the earlier stages of the event mid- late evening. Some potential of heavy rainfall will also have to be monitored as outflow emanating from this convection may become parallel to environmental shear. A strengthening southwest LLJ south feeding into these potential storms/outflow should also weaken upwind propagation vectors yielding potential of training convection. Wednesday's severe potential will be conditional on convective evolution Tuesday night, and if more mature convective system can develop Tuesday night an effective boundary may get pushed across southern half of the forecast area during the day. Instability magnitudes should be more questionable on Wednesday and stronger synoptic forcing will still likely be lagging back to the west. Some isolated severe potential may evolve (mainly wind), but confidence is lower in comparison to late Tuesday. The primary upper level wave will finally top the ridge across the Great Lakes on Thursday, but slow evolution of this feature will keep thunder chances going into Thursday. Some indications in guidance that better kinematic fields on Thursday could be eastward displaced from better instability hanging back to the west/southwest, so any organized severe threat appears to be low at this time. After brief low level CAA late Thursday, quick rebound of mid level heights and rapid onset of low level WAA will keep the much above normal temps going through Friday (highs possibly back near 80 by Friday). No significant changes made to temp forecast through Friday, with confidence in continued much above normal temperatures and daily highs in the 70s. Medium range guidance continues to struggle with ensemble/deterministic consensus on timing frontal passage with next stronger longwave trough next weekend, but an overall trend to least a brief shot of cooler temperatures still appears on track for late weekend/early next week, along with a potential of more showers/storms first half of weekend with cold frontal passage. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 630 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A cluster of showers with a few embedded storms will depart into north central Ohio to begin this period with just a brief shower possible at KFWA through daybreak. Moist advection has resulted in MVFR cigs overspreading northwest Indiana with a potential of a period of cigs below 2k feet affecting KFWA this morning. Gradual increased mixing late morning/early afternoon should take conditions back to VFR. For this afternoon, attention will turn to another mid level short wave kicking out of northern Missouri with a mid level speed max expected to nose into northwest Indiana mid afternoon. Stronger low/mid level theta-e advective forcing downstream of this wave should build across northeast IL which could yield additional scattered storm development. It will become increasingly unstable this afternoon as sfc warming and steeper mid level lapse rates overspreading the region provide a more favorable environment for storms. Given northern Indiana's proximity to the theta-e gradient, and some indications of the mid level speed max, will add a PROB30 TSRA group this afternoon/early evening for KSBN/KFWA. Additional storms may drop southeast into the southern Great Lakes late tonight with a residual outflow boundary potentially providing focus for additional development/propagation. Confidence in showers and storms late this period is on the low side however. Gusty southwest winds will continue today, with some gusts into the 20 to 25 knot range through much of the period. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...Fisher DISCUSSION...Marsili AVIATION...Marsili  675 FXUS63 KABR 131335 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 835 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Front stalls across central and eastern South Dakota today. Cool to the north, but still mild and dry in central South Dakota with High/Very High Grassland Fire Danger and a Red Flag Warning this afternoon. - Isolated strong storms possible this afternoon. Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather across central/north central and northeast South Dakota. Large hail and strong winds are the main threat. Slight risk (2 of 5) extends just into far eastern South Dakota through central Minnesota with hail 1 to 2 inches in diameter, high winds and low tornado threat. - Strong cold front will bring colder air back into the region Friday/Saturday, with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees below normal. && .UPDATE... Issued at 835 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 The low stratus deck and dense fog have been fairly persistent this morning, and have stuck around longer than originally anticipated. Based on webcams, surface observations, and renewed expectations with how things are playing out this morning, have extended the Dense Fog Advisory to cover a greater area over central and north central South Dakota as well as in time to 16Z this morning. Also have made significant changes to temperatures this morning, dropping highs into the 50s over north central and northeastern South Dakota, as well as western Minnesota. This cloud cover also is creating some potential concerns about the severe weather development later today (or rather the potential lack thereof), but full details will be covered in the discussion this afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 110 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Stratus continues to advect into the region behind a cold front which will stall over central and eastern South Dakota today, setting up a temperature gradient from north to south. CAMS also indicate some fog on the cold side of this boundary, especially for locations that would experience an upslope with northeast winds. There is also a weak wave, a ridge rider, moving up across the area this morning. Its helping generate some elevated showers which will propagate across the CWA this morning. Focus for today is fire weather and convection. With regards to fire weather...no changes to NBM temps/dewpoints today, which puts south central South Dakota well below 20% humidity. HREF probability of exceeding gusts of 25mph is nil though 2pm, increasing and expanding slowly thereafter up across central South Dakota, topping out at 40 to 70% in the warned counties. Getting about the same results looking at NAM BUFKIT soundings (mixed winds about 20kts), and as such winds are somewhat marginal. Then there is the wrinkle of potential elevated convection in the west, with NAM BUFKIT profiles indicating deep enough mixing to support high based convection. The warm front will have started lifting northeast in western/central South Dakota with ample sunshine. About half the CAMS show some weak convection across the western portions of central/north central South Dakota for a few hours in the afternoon. The convective mo from the sounding supports 'dry' thunderstorms with instability above the 0C level and thus a dry microburst risk. Thats associated with a shortwave that moves across northwest South Dakota later today. Theres still the departing wave and near neutral flow aloft in the eastern CWA this afternoon. Storms in the east would have to develop along the stalled front. Major wrinkle here is the stabilizing impact of stratus. NAM/GFS both keep the 950-875mb layer nearly saturated, with BUFKIT profiles in that area supporting a stable boundary layer north of the boundary. NAM/HRRR indicate the best instability has shifted down towards Sioux Falls area. Still the CAMS try to generate convection close to the Highway 14 corridor on the stable side of the boundary. This is in area with a slightly curved hodograph with strong unidirectional flow above 2km. Main concern down that way is storms with supercell type structure with a hail risk before everything passes east into Minnesota. Significant surge in mild air for Thursday, with NAEFS 850mb temperatures a standard deviation above climo, dropping to a standard deviation below climo 00-12Z Saturday. ECMWF actually has 850mb temperatures down as low as -10C, which would be 5C colder in comparison to the NAEFS mean. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 630 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG 300-500 foot ceilings continue at all TAF sites. Although originally forecast to stay north of PIR, the lower ceilings and fog has been able to sink south of PIR this morning. Expect these conditions to continue at PIR through much of the period, mixing briefly and scattering out as shower or thunderstorms develop near or south after 17Z today. Otherwise, look for improving conditions at MBG/PIR/ABR by 19Z before returning again to IFR/MVFR ceilings and visibility this evening at MBG/ABR. Have only mentioned thunderstorms at ATY this afternoon in a PROB30 group, but we will be monitoring and updating the TAFs through the day if storms look more likely. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ this morning for SDZ003>005-007>011-015>017-019>023-033>037. Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for SDZ033-045-048. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...BC DISCUSSION...07 AVIATION...06  425 FXUS66 KMFR 131340 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 639 AM PDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...Updated AVIATION discussion for 12Z TAFs... .DISCUSSION...An upper level trough moves eastward out of the area today, but some incoming shortwave troughs will keep precipitation chances at 40-60% west of and along the Cascades into this afternoon. Snow levels look to remain in the 5000-6000 foot range, but forecast precipitation amounts are light. Higher terrain along and east of the Cascades might see an inch or two of snowfall. Any rainfall to the west looks to be measured in the hundreths of an inch at most. This scattered activity should dissipate by the evening hours. A shortwave ridge will bring daytime temperatures up a few degrees on Tuesday afternoon before a cold front arrives Tuesday night, bringing precipitation into the day Wednesday. The highest rainfall amounts look to be along the coast, where 1 to 1.5 inches are possible through the day Wednesday. The heaviest rainfall along the coast could be on Wednesday morning, which may add some difficulty to morning commutes. Inland west side areas will also see light to moderate rainfall. With the current forecast having snow levels at 4000-4500 feet during this wave of precipitation, the Cascades looks to see periods of moderate to heavy snowfall on Wednesday morning and afternoon. Snowfall rates of between half an inch to an inch are possible. A Winter Storm Watch is in place for parts of the Cascades north of Crater Lake and above 5000 feet to highlight possibly hazardous conditions in these areas on Wednesday into Thursday. Other mountain areas look to see a few inches of snowfall as well. Gusty winds over elevated terrain and especially along and east of the Cascades are also expected as an upper trough follows the cold front. Winds along places like Winter Rim and along the Warner Mountains could have Advisory-level gusts on Wednesday morning and afternoon before speeds decrease into the evening. Snow levels drop to 1500-2000 feet Wednesday night into Thursday morning, but lower elevation snowfall is not a concern as precipitation will decrease quickly into Wednesday evening. Frost and freeze conditions may return to west side valleys on both Wednesday night into Thursday and Thursday night into Friday. A warm, dry period looks possible on Friday and Saturday as an upper ridge moves over the area. Another period of active weather is showing up in long-term deterministic imagery, as both ECMWF and GFS models have a low pressure system approaching the area on Sunday. There's noticeable differences in timing and behavior between the models, so stay tuned for additional details as this possible future activity becomes more clear. -TAD && .AVIATION...13/12Z TAFs...Cloud cover across northern California and southern Oregon is bringing VFR and MVFR ceilings across the area. Showers are light and isolated on radar, and are expected to continue that way through the morning. Showers should be largely absent by the end of the TAF period, with a general mixture of VFR and MVFR continuing into early Tuesday morning. Some west side valleys may see lower ceilings or patchy fog. -TAD && .MARINE...Updated 100 AM PDT Monday, April 13, 2026...Activity eases as a low pressure system moves to the east. Winds and short period northwest swell will support seas staying seas below advisory level through Tuesday morning. Steep seas are possible beginning Tuesday afternoon as a stronger front passes through the region. The front will bring increasing southwest winds as it moves across the waters Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Localized areas of very steep and hazardous seas may be possible north of Coos Bay. Unsettled seas may continue behind the Tuesday-Wednesday front. A thermal trough may bring gusty northerly winds south of Cape Blanco later in the week, and another active system is in the forecast into the weekend. -TAD && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday evening through late Wednesday night for ORZ027. CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None. && $$ TAD/TAD/TAD  921 FXUS63 KIND 131349 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 949 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Active pattern this week with near daily chances for showers and storms - Severe weather is a possibility later today and Tuesday focused mainly across the northwest half of central Indiana. Additional threats for strong to severe storms Wednesday and Saturday - Warm temperatures expected through Saturday with multiple days in the lower to mid 80s. Record temperatures are possible && .FORECAST UPDATE... Issued at 948 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Isolated light showers continue across the far southern forecast area this morning. Skies were partly to mostly cloudy, and temperatures were around 70 at most locations. Some weak forcing may continue across the southern quarter to third of the forecast area into early afternoon, so kept some slight chance PoPs there. Otherwise, chances for rain look very low until mid afternoon to early evening. An upper wave currently generating some convection across Missouri/far western Illinois will move northeast and may generate more convection as instability increases this afternoon. The bulk of the convection would remain north of central Indiana, but some may get into the northern portion of the area. There will be enough instability and shear for isolated severe storms with damaging winds and large hail across the far northern portions of the area. Partly to mostly cloudy skies look to continue today, but there will be enough sun to bring temperatures to around 80. Made no significant changes to forecast highs, but will continue to monitor clouds and adjust temperatures if needed. && .DISCUSSION (Today through Sunday)... Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Scattered showers have been extremely efficient early this morning in pulling strong wind gusts briefly to the surface. Multiple observations of 40 to 50 mph winds have been seen across the northern half of the forecast area since late last evening with even a higher gust to 65mph at KIND around 0530Z. Temperatures remained warm with 06Z readings generally in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Today through Tuesday The ongoing showers are associated with a potent upper level wave traversing the region this morning. The ACARS sounding at KIND continues to show an excellent setup for pulling the 50kt winds at 3kft agl to the surface with any showers as the presence of dry air within the boundary layer and a dry adiabatic flow up to about 700mb has produced an inverted V sounding. Over the most recent ACARS soundings the top level of the dry layer has been slowly falling and as of 06Z resided at around 800mb. Showers will impact the area for a couple more hours with ideal conditions for stronger gusts potentially in excess of 50mph at times. Freshened the SPS to highlight more recent observations and trends with the focus for strongest gusts shifting to the Indy metro and points northeast through about 08-0830Z. The departure of the core of the low level jet to the east and a gradual top down moistening of the boundary layer will end the threat for the strongest gusts within the next couple hours but general wind gusts up to 25 to 30 mph will persist through much of the day. Moisture advection will arrive quickly on the heels of the departing showers and with it will come increasing instability which may be enough to generate additional isolated to scattered convection through daybreak prior to the back edge of the forcing aloft associated with the upper wave shifts away to the east. Much of the rest of the day through mid afternoon will be quiet with a blanket of stratus settling over much of the forecast area as a shallow moisture layer becomes trapped beneath an inversion. The arrival of subtle surface ridging later this afternoon will enable the deck to lift and mix out somewhat. Highs will again be near 80. Scattered convection may redevelop by late day but should be largely focused north of the forecast area in closer proximity to the warm front across the lower Great Lakes. Any convection that does fire into the evening over northern Indiana will carry a severe risk as a narrow band of moderate instability aligns with a rapid increase in shear and SRH within the 0-3km layer. Some of this convection may slip into far northern portions of the forecast area during the evening but the presence of a cap around 750mb should be sufficient to limit most convective development this far south. Much of the rest of the night will be quiet under a muggy airmass with continued breezy southwest winds. Lows will only fall into the mid and upper 60s. Most of Tuesday will be warm and humid with temperatures likely to threaten record highs in the afternoon as readings warm into the lower and mid 80s. A surface wave tracking along the frontal boundary into the upper Midwest will serve as a trigger for robust convective development in the afternoon that will likely migrate E/SE Tuesday evening and night into a modestly unstable airmass with steep mid level lapse rates across the region. Severe weather is a threat focused mainly across the northwest half of the forecast area during the evening as the frontal boundary drifts into northern Indiana and a nocturnal low level jet becomes established. Damaging winds will be the primary threat but all hazards are in play. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible as well although the recent stretch of drier conditions over the last 7 to 10 days will limit any flooding concerns. Showers and storms will continue through the night and likely be ongoing at daybreak Wednesday across far northern portions of the forecast area. Wednesday through Sunday Active weather will continue into the weekend as the aforementioned frontal boundary remains north of the region through late week. A stronger surface low will track into the upper Midwest Saturday and pull the boundary through the area as a cold front. Cooler and drier weather will follow for the second half of the weekend. The front will nudge itself closer to the forecast area Wednesday as low pressure occludes over the upper Mississippi Valley with a more widespread convective threat for the entire area that will persist into Thursday. A few storms may be severe yet again with modest instability across the Ohio Valley especially Wednesday afternoon and evening. The boundary should retreat back north Thursday night into Friday with chances for rain and storms lowering. Signs are pointing towards another risk for severe weather Saturday as a cold front sweeps across the Ohio Valley. Temperatures from the upper 70s to mid 80s will be common this week with Friday likely to be the warmest day. Cooler and drier conditions are expected for Sunday and Monday as high pressure builds in behind the front. The cooldown appears brief as upper level ridging should return to the Ohio Valley by next Tuesday and Wednesday. && .AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 540 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Impacts: - MVFR ceilings expected later this morning through mid afternoon - Wind gusts up to 20 to 25kts likely through this evening - Scattered convection may impact KLAF this evening Discussion: An upper level wave is moving off to the east early this morning but enough forcing aloft lingers as instability and low level moisture increases that scattered convection may redevelop mainly near and south of I-70 over the next few hours. By mid morning moisture will become trapped beneath an inversion leading to an expansion of MVFR stratus into the area for a few hours into the mid afternoon before the deck mixes out and lifts. Southwest winds will remain breezy throughout the day with gusts peaking at near 25kts at times through tonight. There is potential for convection to develop over north central Indiana this evening in closer proximity to a warm front over the lower Great Lakes. Have inserted a VCSH mention for a few hours during the evening at KLAF but confidence remains low on potential impacts. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Within the setup described in the discussion above, near record temperatures are possible at times this week, mainly Tuesday, and Friday. Whether readings get close depends on sky cover and any rain staying away, which keeps confidence lower at this time. Current deterministic model runs are cooler than the records, but the potential exists to get within a few degrees if everything lines up. On Tuesday April 14, Indy's record high is 85, set in 1883. On Friday April 17, Indy's record high is 87, set in 1896. Record high minimum temperatures are also in play at times given the warm and relatively humid airmass. The first opportunity for this comes Monday, when the record high minimum at Indy is 63, set in 2014 and tied in 2018. At the moment, the forecast is for tying that number. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...50 AVIATION...Ryan DISCUSSION...Ryan CLIMATE...50/Ryan  051 FXHW60 PHFO 131358 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 358 AM HST Mon Apr 13 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Light to moderate rain continues across the western portion of the state, as the rain band gradually meanders away from the islands. Light and variable winds will favor some onshore sea breezes through midweek. By the latter half of the weak, light trades and quiet weather return to the forecast for the latter end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Latest radar imagery continues to show remnant showers developing across the smaller Hawaiian Islands. These showers have been showing predominately less than a tenth of an inch per hour across the state, with some locally higher amounts across leeward Big Island. Despite this, opting to cancel the remaining Flood Watch for Kauai through Maui as a result. The threat for widespread flash flooding has decreased across the Hawaiian Islands, therefore, the Flood Watch has been cancelled. However, due to lingering moisture and saturated grounds, some minor flooding may still occur in areas affected by heavy showers. Winds across the state are anticipated to be light and variable beginning tomorrow, favoring onshore sea breezes each afternoon, which may result in some showers as the lingering airmass over the islands remains moisture-rich. Moreover, dewpoints are expected to remain in the upper-60s throughout the week, maintaining high humidity levels that will persist until trades return. As the low pressure system, once anchored north of the islands, finally dislodged and moved northeastward away from the Hawaiian Islands by mid-week -- and with it, the band of rainfall. A broad area of high pressure quickly builds in its wake, opening the door for light trades to make a return by the latter half of the week. Trades remain quite light and are not expected to make much of a profound effect on the local humidity levels. However, for the first time in several weeks, there is no potential event forthcoming for the Hawaiian Islands. && .AVIATION... Low cigs and SHRA will continue over the islands today. MVFR conds possible in heavier SHRA. Winds should remain light. AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc for Kauai to Maui. AIRMET Tango is in effect for mod turb btn 120-FL280. Conds should slowly improve into tomorrow. && .MARINE... A weak surface trough remains draped over the central islands, extending from a low pressure system far north-northwest of the area. Moderate to fresh easterly winds will persist to the east of the trough, while light to moderate southerly winds occur to the west. This weak surface boundary along with an upper level disturbance moving over the region will continue to bring showers and the potential for isolated thunderstorms through mid-week. The surface trough lifts northwest in the latter half of the week and high pressure to the northeast will begin to take over at the surface, causing gentle to moderate easterly trades to gradually develop across the Hawaiian coastal waters by this weekend. A small, medium-period northwest swell will diminish today. However, small surf will be maintained along north and west facing shores by a reinforcing pulse on Tuesday. Following this, northwest swell energy declines through the rest of the week. A medium-period south swell will continue to decline today as well. A new south swell arrives on Tuesday, once again providing a boost to surf along south facing shores through mid week before gradually subsiding into the weekend. Surf along east facing shores will remain below seasonal average with lighter than average trade winds near and upstream of the islands forecast through next week. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Pierce AVIATION...Walsh MARINE...Quesada