725 FXUS63 KFGF 131406 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 906 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms in west- central Minnesota this afternoon. Main hazard will be hail to the size of quarters. - Intervals of precipitation are forecast through the work week. This includes a 30% chance of advisory level winter impacts on Friday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 856 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Update to Key Messages were made. Scattered light rain showers are encroaching upon eastern ND from the west this morning. These showers will continue to push east through the remainder of the morning into the early afternoon, with additional, heavier rain showers forecast this afternoon into evening. Heaping clouds today will limit how warm temperatures get, now forecast to remain in the 40s and 50s with the exception of west-central MN where temperatures push into the 60s. UPDATE Issued at 625 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Patchy fog is being reported across parts of northwest Minnesota and the Red River Valley this morning, with low clouds elsewhere. Expect a continuation of occasional and brief low visibility this morning. Temperatures range from the low to mid 30s north of Highway 200, with 40s to the south. UPDATE Issued at 1149 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026 Continuing to keep the fog mention to patchy with no headlines needed, as visibility has been mostly in the 1 to 2 miles at the lowest. Next round of rain showers look to move in tomorrow morning as a weak vort approaches. Still some instability getting into our far southeastern counties tomorrow afternoon, although the CAMs have been trending further south with the convection they develop. HREF probabilities of around 10 percent clip parts of Grant and Otter Tail counties, and at this point the window for any severe in our area seems pretty narrow. As for winter precip chances with the weekend system, the NBM continues to trend lighter with snow amounts, with probabilities of over 3 inches less than 20 percent. However, the chances for ice have increased to around 20 to 30 percent and any of that can cause impacts so will keep the possibility of advisory messaging the same. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 134 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026 ...Synopsis... The upper flow pattern remains quite amplified with a very high wave number across the CONUS. This afternoon, multiple short and longwave troughs/vort maxes exist across the United States, including one centered over the Northern Plains right now, bringing showers and thunderstorms across the region. This looks to continue through the week as brief breaks in cyclonic vorticity advection will be quickly replaced by another region of synoptic ascent, meaning we will get frequent shots at precipitation. Mean temperatures/thicknesses remain fairly high, so primarily rain can be expected through the week. This changes towards the end of the week as a stronger wave comes through and pushes temperatures back down to where snow arises as a precipitation type once again. Ensemble signals do indicate the potential for advisory level impacts from accumulating snow, generally at around a 30% probability. ...SEVERE STORMS TODAY... This afternoon, a surface low is currently centered around Detroit Lakes and is currently slowly propagating east- northeastward. A tongue of 56-60 degree dewpoints exists along it and stretching southeastward. Moisture advection is fairly limited this afternoon and drier air is looking to pinch off this tongue of moisture over the next few hours. Having said that, attached to the surface low is a warm front where some weak veering aloft exists. As we progress through the remainder of the afternoon, this warm front is expected to propagate north to northeast as the low propagates with it. Along this warm front, some CAMs attempt to initiate deep convection along it thanks to very good lapse rates and flow aloft. Having said that, the bulk of initiation locations are right on our CWA border into DLH's area, which appears to be the most likely scenario at this point as dry air looks like it may cut off the main moisture source in our area. Still, the potential for severe weather exists if initiation occurs prior to cutoff. With the veering and stronger winds aloft, supercells are a hazard with the potential for large damaging hail and tornadoes. The threat will be over with generally around 7 PM tonight. ...SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW... While the bulk of the severe weather threat is south of our area, there is the potential once more for severe thunderstorms in southeast North Dakota and west-central Minnesota. A cold front will move through this evening, largely scouring away the majority of instability. The expectation for tomorrow is recovery in southern Minnesota, intensifying a surface warm front somewhere in that area. North of this warm front, elevated instability should continue to linger through tomorrow, bringing with it at least the potential for elevated supercells capable of large hail. While the surface pattern mostly favors surface based convection tomorrow afternoon well south, any variations in the location of the warm front will drive where impacts will be felt. As such, it is possible for areas like Grant County to have an increasing tornado threat if and only if the warm front is much further north than guidance currently shows. The most likely outcome, however, is for primarily a damaging hail threat from elevated storms. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 625 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 MVFR ceilings prevail at KDVL this morning, with IFR to LIFR ceilings and visibility at all other TAF sites. Low stratus and BR will continue to impact aviation through at least 15Z as IFR stratus remains persistent in the post frontal air mass. Improvement could take shape later this afternoon; however, a broken MVFR deck is likely to develop during the late afternoon, with additional IFR ceilings and scattered showers likely by late evening. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...CJ/Lynch/JR DISCUSSION...Perroux AVIATION...Lynch  421 FXUS63 KBIS 131407 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 907 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal temperatures continue today, with medium to high chances for showers today through tonight. - A few thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon into tonight, with an isolated strong to marginally severe storm possible southwest and south central. - Low chance for a wintry mix across the north this morning, and again tonight into Tuesday morning. - Significant cool down possible for the end of this week, with medium chances for both rain and snow. && .UPDATE... Issued at 857 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 For the morning update we lowered high temperatures, mainly along and south of I-94. Widespread stratus looks like it will remain through the day (also bumped up sky cover) across most if not all of western and central ND. We also adjusted pops just a little. Will continue with mainly chance pops this morning lifting north and east. There have been some light rain showers with the reflectivities lifting north along the I-94 corridor. There is some general upper level ridging, especially this morning and the 12Z Bismarck sounding showed quite a bit of dry air remaining, so qpf with any shower activity this morning is expected to be minimal. Then the south dries out a bit this afternoon, with higher pops lingering in the north. Better chances with the main wave lifting through the area later today and tonight. We also extended the mention of fog through the morning. Updated text products will be transmitted shortly. UPDATE Issued at 652 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A line of showers continues to move from southwest to northeast through across North Dakota at the time of this mid morning update. These showers have been a little less pervasive then suggested by the CAMs, with the 12Z sounding here at the office suggesting a layer of relatively drier air helping to limit how much precipitation is reaching the ground. Short term deterministic models continue to advocate these layer saturating through the mid morning, especially as secondary wave already promoting the development of showers in Montana moves into the west. For the showers that we do have this morning, areas of fog have been observed to develop as they move off to the northeast, with visibilities across portions of the far southwest dropping as low as 1/4 SM at times. Jumping around ND DOT cameras across this are suggest this denser fog is somewhat limited in areal extent, and the expectation is that visibilities should improve through the mid morning as surface winds begin to pick up. Considering the morning commute, we have opted to issue a SPS across much of the southwest due to the potential for rapidly changing visibility. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Southwesterly flow is found across the northern Plains this morning as a Pacific trough over the western CONUS is progged to split and be absorbed into the northern stream through the day today. With this moving across the region as a shortwave perturbation, medium to high chances (40 to 70 percent) for precpitation are expected across much of the forecast area this morning through late tonight. While mainly falling as rain, cooling temperatures tonight into Tuesday could allow for a little snow to mix in with the rain across portions of north central North Dakota, though no snow accumulation is expected. With how pervasive this precpitation will be through this period, much of the forecast area has medium chances (40 to 60 percent) to exceed 0.25" of QPF through Tuesday morning, with a low chance (10 to 30 percent) to exceed 0.50". It's starting to get to the point of the year where we must consider the convective environment as well. With seasonable warm weather lingering across the south today, with highs from the mid 40s north up to the upper 50s and lower 60s south, short term deterministic guidance continues to advertise modest instability becoming available by the mid to late afternoon across portions of the southwest and south central, with model MUCAPE values approaching 500 J/KG. That being said, an interrogation of BUFKIT model soundings during this periods reveals a fairly robust cap across much of the south through the afternoon, so we may struggle to see much more than elevated thunder during this period. That being said, there is a low probability scenario where the early erosion of this cap could allow for a stronger storm to develop, considering the ample of amount of BULK shear advertised by the CAMs around this time (approx 35 to 40 knots). If this scenario does pan out, small hail and an isolated, marginally severe wind gusts up to 60 MPH would be possible. SPC as placed southwestern and south central North Dakota into a level 1 of 5 risk for isolated severe thunderstorms for this afternoon into this evening. Mainly dry conditions are then expected Tuesday and Wednesday as near zonal to slightly southwesterly flow is established above the forecast area. A transient shortwave is progged to pass through the region Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday, promoting another round of light rainfall, though there is fairly strong agreement between ensemble members on this remaining to the south of North Dakota at this time. With the near zonal flow persisting through the mid week, warming highs from the 50s and 60s on Tuesday to the 60s and 70s on Wednesday are expected. A transition back to southwesterly flow is then anticipated late Wednesday into Thursday as a strong upper level low makes landfall in the Pacific Northwest. Chances for precpitation (40 to 60 percent) increase through the day Thursday as a surface low complex moves out of the southern Canadian Prairies and approaches western and central North Dakota. While initially falling as rain through the day Thursday, with lingering highs broadly in the lower 50s northwest to mid 70s southeast, a sharp transition to all snow is expected to occur Thursday night into Friday as a cold front associated with this drops across the area. With this, at least light accumulations of snow can be expected across much of the forecast area, with the NBM advertising a light dusting across the south up to an inch or two along the International Border. Cluster analysis reveals this to the majority solution, with around 55 percent of members favoring a northerly track to the low complex. A minority cluster also exists (45 percent of ensemble members), which has a slightly stronger low complex dipping further to the south than what is advertised by the NBM, allowing for a quicker transition to all snow across the south overnight into Friday. With this scenario, accumulations up to an inch would be possible as far south as Interstate 94. In either scenario, breezy to windy conditions can be expected Thursday and Friday as and pressure gradient sharpens, and CAA increases along and behind the cold front. That being said, the upper end of these winds may be only near to marginally wind advisory criteria due to the timing of the frontal passage and the lack of a strong 850-700mb jet during this period. This thinking seems to fall in line with the lack of any anomalous wind signal in the most recent ECMWF EFI, though we will need to continue monitoring this period moving forward. After the much cooler weather on Friday, there is decent agreement in the ensemble on warming temperatures by the end of the weekend into early next week as longwave ridging builds in behind the trough, though there is some modest disagreement on the timing of this transition back toward warmer weather. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 652 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Widespread IFR to LIFR ceilings and visibility can be found across western and central North Dakota at the start of the 12Z TAF period, and is expected to linger through much of the TAF period. Brief improvement may be found where a band of showers is moving across western and central North Dakota this morning, through low ceilings and areas of fog have rapidly developed behind these showers. Across the southwest, visibility as low as 1/4 SM is expected through the mid morning, though will generally improve as winds begins to pick up. Scattered showers will continue to lift across southwestern North Dakota and expand across the forecast area overnight through much of Monday. Periods of MVFR visibility and LIFR ceilings are possible where ever rain does fall. Late this afternoon into this evening, thunderstorms will also be possible across southwestern into south central North Dakota. Easterly winds this morning are expected to strengthen, becoming breezy with sustained speeds up around 10 to 15 knots and gusts up to 20 knots. Where thunderstorms do develop, gusty and erratic winds are expected. Winds will gradually diminish and turn northeasterly through the evening, become light around 5 to 10 knots. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...TWH DISCUSSION...Adam AVIATION...Adam  522 FXUS61 KLWX 131414 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1014 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Light rain showers continue to track across the forecast area with dry air at the surface limiting the amount of precipitation reaching the ground. Expect mostly virga and drizzle, so increased precipitation chances east of the Blue Ridge where drizzle is expected. Otherwise no changes were made to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Elevated fire danger and near-record warmth expected this week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Elevated fire danger and near-record warmth expected this week. Increasing temperatures will be the main story for this week as highs reach at least the 80s through next weekend. Highs in the 90s are likely in parts of the area Wednesday through Saturday. Dew points in the 50s for most days will keep the heat risk at bay, but expecting several days to be particularly hot as we approach record warmth for April. A few very brief light showers or sprinkles are possible late this morning through mid-afternoon as a lee-side trof moves across the area. It will remain hot and dry through Thursday when upper ridge will crest over the area. A shortwave-trough will traverse the area Thu night knocking down temperatures into the 80s, but not much in the way of precip is expected since it will cross the area at an unfavorable time of day. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A few very brief light showers or sprinkles are possible late this morning through mid afternoon. Otherwise, windy with freq gusts 20-30 mph and peak gusts of 30-35 mph during the afternoon. Hot and dry through Thursday. Not as windy Tue-Fri with gusts 20-25 kt each afternoon. && .MARINE... SCA conditions are expected today with gusts 20-30 kt, strongest during the afternoon hours. Winds drop below SCA levels tonight. Periods of SCA conditions are possible in southerly channeling each afternoon Tuesday through Thursday. && .FIRE WEATHER... An upper level ridge will support well above normal temperatures through the end of the week with record breaking temperatures likely Wednesday and Thursday when temperatures are expected to reach the mid 90s. As a result, wetting rains are not expected through the end of the week. The forecast for today Monday has trended cooler since yesterday with thicker and more widespread cloud cover. As a result, Rh's are not expected to drop as much as previously thought from yesterday or a couple of days ago. A few very brief light showers or sprinkles are possible late this morning through mid afternoon, enough to keep Rh's above critical levels in the 30 to 40 percent. However, winds will be quite gusty during the afternoon with SW winds gusting up to 35 mph. Given the strength of the winds, an SPS is still warranted. Tuesday through Thursday will feature temperatures at or above 90 degrees with marginally low humidities and gusty winds of 20 to 25 mph during the afternoon keeping the fire weather risk elevated. Next week...cooler temperatures and slightly higher chances of precipitation should result in lower fire weather risk. && .CLIMATE... Many daily records are likely to be broken this week, for both high temperatures and warm low temperatures. Some stations could tie or set their all-time high temperature and warm low temperature records for the month of April. April 14 LocationRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW Washington-National (DCA)91F (1960) 65F (2014) Washington-Dulles (IAD) 87F (1960) 63F (2014) Baltimore (BWI) 91F (1941) 65F (2018) Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 90F (1960) 67F (2018) Martinsburg (MRB) 87F (1960) 62F (2014) Charlottesville (CHO) 90F (1945) 67F (1899) Annapolis(NAK) 90F (1941) 65F (1977) Hagerstown (HGR) 86F (2024) 64F (2014) April 15 LocationRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW Washington-National (DCA)89F (1941) 65F (2023) Washington-Dulles (IAD) 87F (1967) 62F (2023) Baltimore (BWI) 88F (1941) 65F (1941) Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 92F (2024) 67F (1960) Martinsburg (MRB) 90F (1941) 63F (1967) Charlottesville (CHO) 92F (2024) 68F (1941) Annapolis(NAK) 91F (1941) 68F (1994) Hagerstown (HGR) 85F (1960) 61F (2023) April 16 LocationRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW Washington-National (DCA)92F (2002) 65F (2017) Washington-Dulles (IAD) 91F (2002) 63F (2017) Baltimore (BWI) 90F (2012) 66F (1941) Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 91F (2012) 65F (2012) Martinsburg (MRB) 90F (2002) 63F (2017) Charlottesville (CHO) 92F (1976) 67F (1941) Annapolis(NAK) 89F (2017) 70F (1994) Hagerstown (HGR) 88F (2002) 62F (2002) April 17 LocationRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW Washington-National (DCA) 95F (2002)65F (2002) Washington-Dulles (IAD) 93F (2002)59F (2024) Baltimore (BWI) 93F (2002)66F (1896) Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 95F (2002)66F (1976) Martinsburg (MRB) 93F (2002)60F (1941) Charlottesville (CHO) 94F (1976)65F (1976) Annapolis(NAK) 90F (1976)68F (1994) Hagerstown (HGR) 90F (2002)64F (2002) All-Time April Record Highs: Washington-National (DCA)95F 4/17/2002, 4/18/1976, 4/23/1960 4/27/1915 Washington-Dulles (IAD) 93F 4/6/2010, 4/17/2002, 4/25/1960 Baltimore (BWI) 94F 4/25/1960, 4/23/1960, 4/20/1941, 4/18/1896 Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 98F 4/26/1990, 4/22/1985 Martinsburg (MRB) 96F 4/21/1941 Charlottesville (CHO) 98F 4/24-25/1925 Annapolis(NAK) 95F 4/20/1941 Hagerstown (HGR) 94F 4/6/2010, 4/18/1976, 4/26/1915 All-Time April Record Warm-Lows: Washington-National (DCA)70F 4/29/2017 Washington-Dulles (IAD) 68F 4/27/2011 Baltimore (BWI) 70F 4/19/1896 Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 76F 4/26/1990 Martinsburg (MRB) 69F 4/19/2025 Charlottesville (CHO) 72F 4/26/1915 Annapolis(NAK) 70F 4/28/1994, 4/16/1994, 4/18/1896 Hagerstown (HGR) 69F 4/27/2009 && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for MDZ008. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ530>543. && $$ DISCUSSION...AVS/LFR/KRR AVIATION...LFR/KRR MARINE...LFR/KRR  302 FXUS63 KDVN 131449 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 949 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered severe risk has increased for this afternoon into early evening, with a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for northwest Illinois. - We continue to have multiple days of severe weather risks this week. There is an Enhanced Risk for severe storms on Tuesday (level 3 of 5). - Warm and seasonably humid conditions are expected through Wednesday this week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 949 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Confidence has increased this morning for a risk of isolated to scattered severe storms this afternoon and early evening. Models are progging a compact mid-level shortwave to lift northeastward over the area this afternoon, along with a strengthening southwesterly 30-40 knot low-level jet, enhancing convergence. Temperatures well into the 70s and near 80 across our south, along with dew points into the mid to upper 60s, should support SBCAPE values between 1500-2500 J/kg this afternoon - ample instability to fuel convection. Additionally, progged mid-level lapse rates appear quite steep, with values around 7-8 C/km. All of this to say that the environment appears ripe for strong to severe storms. SPC has upgraded the severe risk to a Slight (level 2 of 5) for areas along and north of Galena, IL southeast towards Putnam county, IL, along with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) now along and north of a line from Sigourney, IA to south- central Hancock county, IL. Due to the steep mid-level lapse rates, large hail appears to be the primary threat, with damaging winds and a tornado being more of a secondary threat. However, if storms are able to become surface-based, this would help increase the damaging winds/tornado threat. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Broad southwesterly flow aloft from the Desert Southwest into the Central U.S will continue through much of this week, resulting in active weather across the Midwest. A surface low will begin to organize across Nebraska today before tracking northeastward into NW Iowa and eventually central Wisconsin by tonight, placing eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois in the warm sector of this system. Forecast highs are in the upper 70s to lower 80s for most of the outlook area, with gusty southerly winds (20-30 mph) advecting a warm and increasingly humid air mass into the region (with Tds reaching the ~mid 60s). Elevated showers and thunderstorms are possible later this morning through the mid afternoon as increasing southwest winds aloft (850-700mb) lead to a period of lift/WAA and increase in MUCAPE to 1500-2000 J/kg per latest HREF. Gusty winds and hail would be the primary threats with the strongest cells. The main area of convective initiation today will occur across Minnesota into west-central Wisconsin in the vicinity of a warm front. Forecast steering flow (850-300mb mean wind) and forward-prop. Corfidi vectors indicate these strong to severe clusters of storms will track mostly to the east or east- southeast through much of central and into southern Wisconsin this evening/tonight. What we'll have to watch for is if additional storms can fire back to the west near the surface low across NW Iowa. If this happens, then a line of storms could still drop in from the NW late at night, likely after 10 PM. Most models are not showing this scenario. However, the EC has been consistent on bringing at least scattered storms all the way down to central portions of the outlook area. SPC has pushed the Slight Risk for severe storms north of the area and has maintained a Marginal Risk down to the I-80 counties with the primary threats being isolated strong wind gusts and hail. PoPs haven't changed too much either as we are still messaging 20-50% along/north of Highway 34 for late tonight into early Tuesday AM. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Our attention for the long-term period starts right off the bat with another severe storm risk for Tuesday, and this one appears to be more likely to be active for us. The aforementioned warm front from Monday appears to be pulled southward by yet another surface low, this one developing over the central Plains (farther south than the Monday low pressure system). There remain some uncertainty on the influence of previous convection (if any develop) on how things evolve on Tuesday. If the boundary does reach our northwestern CWA by Tuesday afternoon/evening, it will be game on for strong/severe storms, especially considering the volatile thermodynamic and kinematic environment. As high temperatures warm into lower 80s for most, expect instability to be quite high, with the GEFS ensemble probability of SBCAPE of 2000 J/kg or higher around 50-80+ percent across our southeastern 2/3rds of the CWA. SPC has upgraded areas roughly north of Highway 34 to an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5), with all severe hazards possible, including large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. For Wednesday through Friday, the active pattern will only continue as the primary upper-level longwave trough finally moves through the area Wednesday, followed by yet another one on Friday. We continue to be outlooked by SPC for Slight Risks both days in our region. Much uncertainty remains on the timing and severity as prior convection can augment the environment, but the various machine learning severe probability tools suggest these days to be volatile from an environmental perspective, so more to keep an eye on as we approach these portions of the week. Prepare for a busy severe weather week! && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 642 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Low stratus will remain over portions of eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois this morning with some early morning dense fog at CID. Prevailing IFR/LIFR ceilings are anticipated at DBQ and CID. Further south, periods of MVFR are expected at MLI and BRL, with brief IFR possible at MLI. By the afternoon, conditions should improve to MVFR/VFR and gusty southerly winds are expected once again, reaching around 25 kts. There is a chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms late this morning and this afternoon so have mentioned this potential in PROB30s. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ UPDATE...Schultz SHORT TERM...Uttech LONG TERM...Schultz/Uttech AVIATION...Uttech