827 FXUS62 KKEY 131512 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1112 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all Florida Keys coastal waters. Breezy conditions will persist for several more days. - Little to no measurable rain will maintain continued moderate drought conditions in the Florida Keys for the next week. - Temperatures will remain near normal, with highs in the lower 80s, and lows in the lower 70s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1111 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A few light showers can be seen in the nearshore waters of the Florida Keys on KBYX radar. The showers are very light and quick to wax and wane so measurable amounts of rain from them will be a few hundredths at best. GOES-19 Visible Satelitte reveals mostly partly cloudy skies outside of where the showers have formed. This morning's 12z KKEY sounding measured 0.67 inches of precipitable water which is significantly less than the last few days, confirming dry air has taken over our area. Temperatures across the island chain are in the mid to upper 70s with dew points in the mid 60s making for a nice day outside. Along the Reef, marine locations are reporting easterly winds at near 20 knots. The remainder of the day continues to be similar to what we've been getting as high pressure continues to dominate our weather pattern; breezy and dry air limiting shower development. No changes were needed to this update package. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 302 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 The 00z evening sounding at KEY sampled decent shallow moisture up to around 850 mb, capped by a weak temperature inversion. The sounding also detected modest veering with height, and given the continued freshened breezes, isolated to scattered shallow nocturnal showers have been observed across the favored marine zones south of the Island Chain overnight. KBYX reflectivity trends have been downward over the past couple of hours, with only a few isolated showers remaining. Temperatures are generally in the lower 70s at this early Monday morning hour, with mostly clear skies outside of the aforementioned shower activity. The stagnant synoptic pattern will continue for the remainder of the forecast period for the Florida Keys. Gradient wind associated with high pressure centered east of New England will support continued breezy conditions for the next several days. Aloft, an upper- level ridge, characterized by anomalously high 500 mb geopotential heights, along with the lack of any moisture above the boundary layer, will limit any significant measurable rain amounts as well. Most deterministic and ensemble numerical weather prediction guidance suggests the ridge may actually strengthen over the next several days. With the gradient that has supported at least isolated showers slowly collapsing late in the week and into the weekend, along with the increased ridging aloft, mainly dry conditions will likely persist at least for the next seven days. && .MARINE... Issued at 1111 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all of the Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, a high pressure system off the coast of New England will maintain fresh to strong northeast to east breezes through the early portion of this week. Fast-moving light showers cannot be ruled out, especially in the overnight periods. Breezes may briefly lull during the late afternoon and early evening across the Gulf waters due to the heating of South Florida. As the high moves farther eastward and slowly weakens, easterly breezes will modestly slacken for Thursday and Friday. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1111 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period. Some light showers are possible at either terminal but at this time adding VCSH is unnecessary. Near surface winds will continue to be easterly at 10 to 15 knots with frequent gusts of 20 to 25 knots. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...AP Aviation/Nowcasts....AP Data Acquisition.....AP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest  449 FXUS63 KIWX 131517 CCA AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 1117 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Unseasonably warm temperatures expected through the work week with highs in the 70s and even some 80s at times. - There is a Slight Risk of severe storms today mainly from mid to late afternoon through this evening. Isolated large hail and isolated damaging wind gusts would be the main threats if storms develop. - The active period of weather continues Tuesday through Thursday with continued periodic higher chances of showers and storms. There is a Slight Risk of severe storms Tuesday late afternoon through the early overnight hours which represents the period of greatest severe weather potential. All severe hazards are possible including the potential of some locally heavy rainfall. Confidence in severe weather is lower for Wednesday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 935 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 While the overall forecast remains unchanged at the moment, we will be closely monitoring a mid level wave currently moving ne through Missouri with a small area of showers and storms. Several models are hinting at development later this afternoon (after 21Z) of at least isolated storms in association with this feature and an associated EML and steep lapse rates. Degree of destabilization is still in question with pockets of clearing ahead of the wave possibly limiting the threat. Based on the threat, SPC has expanded the slight risk for today into our area (west of I-69 and north of US-24) for a hail/wind threat. This is by no means a slam dunk, but will need to watch trends into this afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 330 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 The combination of a mid level short wave and broad advective forcing has sustained rain showers from west to east across the area this morning. Despite the decent moisture transport this morning, the strength of the low level thermal ridge has allowed for large enough low level dew point depressions to provide some enhancement to surface wind gusts in association with these showers. Fairly strong background flow (~40 knots in lowest gate of KIWX VWP data) has also mixed down fairly efficiently with these showers with some instances of 40-50 mph wind gusts. This potential should gradually wane over next few hours. Higher res guidance does indicate some renewed convective development on southern periphery of departing mid level wave, and where secondary low level theta-e ridge starts to nose into north central IN next few hours. This could yield a cluster of showers with perhaps embedded thunderstorms across northern IN/northwest OH early this morning through daybreak. Additional showers and storms are possible today, and the Storm Prediction Center has continued a Marginal Risk of severe storms for most of the forecast area. Some lull in scattered/showers storms is expected by mid morning, but will need to watch for possibility of weak mid level wave across Kansas as it reaches the western Great Lakes this evening. A renewed surge of stronger low level theta-e advection is expected to accompany this short wave with strongest advective forcing expected across northeast IL. The approach of this Central Plains wave will also mark the leading edge of stronger mid level lapse rates. While synoptic forcing does not appear strong today, destabilizing trends in thermodynamic environment with the steeper mid level lapse rates and the presence of the more distinct low/mid level theta-e boundary could provide a focus for at least an isolated severe threat late this afternoon into this evening. While greatest threat for isolated severe today may be north of US 30 as mid level speed max shifts across southern Great Lakes, hard to discount any location across forecast area given theta-e boundary will likely be hanging back a bit more to the south from northeast Illinois into the local area. MLCAPEs on the order of 1500-2000 J/kg, modest deep layer shear of 30 to 40 knots, and steep low level lapse rates could pose some threat of isolated damaging wind gusts in addition to large hail threat with steep mid level lapse rates. Some lull in thunder chances is expected early overnight, but may need to watch for possibility of remnants of stronger Great Lakes convection to propagate southward to the southern Great Lakes toward daybreak Tuesday. These storms could have some strong wind gusts persisting early Tuesday morning but confidence in this evolution is low. Tuesday/Tuesday night still appears to be the period of greatest concern for scattered severe storms and most of the forecast area remains in an SPC Day 2 Slight Risk for severe storms. The forecast challenge for this event remains on convective initiation portion of the event. Stronger mid/upper level forcing will likely be hanging back to the west across the Rockies as primary upper level wave begins to shear eastward. Best forcing mechanisms for convective initiation will be at nose of stronger low level flow and strong low level moisture convergence across NW IL/SW WI/NE IA. Will need to see if there is any remnant leftover boundary from early Tuesday Great Lakes convection that help overcome some surface based CIN for more of an isolated storm development locally during the early/mid afternoon hours. The expectation is still that discrete storm development across Mid MS Rvr Valley should tend to congeal across western/southern Great Lakes later evening Tuesday with strong component of shear parallel to the boundary. Greatest potential severe risks still appear to be large hail 1-2" in diameter given very steep mid level lapse rates and damaging wind gusts, with greatest potential of hail across the northwest which could be involved in the earlier stages of the event mid- late evening. Some potential of heavy rainfall will also have to be monitored as outflow emanating from this convection may become parallel to environmental shear. A strengthening southwest LLJ south feeding into these potential storms/outflow should also weaken upwind propagation vectors yielding potential of training convection. Wednesday's severe potential will be conditional on convective evolution Tuesday night, and if more mature convective system can develop Tuesday night an effective boundary may get pushed across southern half of the forecast area during the day. Instability magnitudes should be more questionable on Wednesday and stronger synoptic forcing will still likely be lagging back to the west. Some isolated severe potential may evolve (mainly wind), but confidence is lower in comparison to late Tuesday. The primary upper level wave will finally top the ridge across the Great Lakes on Thursday, but slow evolution of this feature will keep thunder chances going into Thursday. Some indications in guidance that better kinematic fields on Thursday could be eastward displaced from better instability hanging back to the west/southwest, so any organized severe threat appears to be low at this time. After brief low level CAA late Thursday, quick rebound of mid level heights and rapid onset of low level WAA will keep the much above normal temps going through Friday (highs possibly back near 80 by Friday). No significant changes made to temp forecast through Friday, with confidence in continued much above normal temperatures and daily highs in the 70s. Medium range guidance continues to struggle with ensemble/deterministic consensus on timing frontal passage with next stronger longwave trough next weekend, but an overall trend to least a brief shot of cooler temperatures still appears on track for late weekend/early next week, along with a potential of more showers/storms first half of weekend with cold frontal passage. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 630 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A cluster of showers with a few embedded storms will depart into north central Ohio to begin this period with just a brief shower possible at KFWA through daybreak. Moist advection has resulted in MVFR cigs overspreading northwest Indiana with a potential of a period of cigs below 2k feet affecting KFWA this morning. Gradual increased mixing late morning/early afternoon should take conditions back to VFR. For this afternoon, attention will turn to another mid level short wave kicking out of northern Missouri with a mid level speed max expected to nose into northwest Indiana mid afternoon. Stronger low/mid level theta-e advective forcing downstream of this wave should build across northeast IL which could yield additional scattered storm development. It will become increasingly unstable this afternoon as sfc warming and steeper mid level lapse rates overspreading the region provide a more favorable environment for storms. Given northern Indiana's proximity to the theta-e gradient, and some indications of the mid level speed max, will add a PROB30 TSRA group this afternoon/early evening for KSBN/KFWA. Additional storms may drop southeast into the southern Great Lakes late tonight with a residual outflow boundary potentially providing focus for additional development/propagation. Confidence in showers and storms late this period is on the low side however. Gusty southwest winds will continue today, with some gusts into the 20 to 25 knot range through much of the period. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...Fisher DISCUSSION...Marsili AVIATION...Marsili  968 FXUS63 KJKL 131529 AAC AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 1129 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Unseasonably warm conditions are expected for much of the next week. - The warmest days are forecast to be Tuesday through Saturday. New daily record high temperatures are possible, if not likely, on the warmest days. - Scattered light rain showers are possible through early this evening, with little in the way of measurable rainfall. - Shower chances and small thunderstorm chances return late tonight and linger into Tuesday. Additional showers/storms are possible at times through this week and into the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1128 AM EDT MON APR 13 2026 Showers were measuring at several locations in Central KY and pops were increased over the next couple of hours across northern portions of the area as that activity moves east across portions of eastern KY. Additional hourly grids have been updated based on recent observation trends. UPDATE Issued at 737 AM EDT MON APR 13 2026 Made additional tweaks to PoPs through the Today period based on latest NBM guidance and current radar trends. These showers are producing little to no measurable rainfall as they are moving quickly and falling from mid-level clouds through a dry low-level environment, and that trend likely continues through early this evening. UPDATE Issued at 530 AM EDT MON APR 13 2026 Pre-dawn update is out with an update to PoPs to match current radar trends. This shower activity is elevated and falling from rather high cloud bases over a deep, dry low-level environment. Would thus expect any rainfall amounts to be a trace just barely measurable, with gusty outflow winds also possible due to evaporational cooling as precipitation falls into the dry low- level environment. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 300 AM EDT MON APR 13 2026 A stagnant mid- and upper-level pattern is in place across the Eastern CONUS, with a broad trough across the western CONUS and a positively-tilted ridge over the Southeast CONUS. Eastern Kentucky resides on the southern and southeastern periphery of an active jet stream that extends from the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes to northern Mid-Atlantic and New England regions. Despite warm advection continuing through the period providing broad yet unfocused forcing for ascent, the mid-level flow over eastern Kentucky remains, and will remain, broadly anticyclonic, with disturbances grazing the area within this overall regime. A shortwave exits the northern Ohio River Valley this morning, leaving warm advection in its wake but weak shortwave ridging through the remainder of the day. Given broad unfocused forcing for ascent with the warm advection, a continued dry lower atmosphere, and little if any instability, ProbThunder grids were reduced significantly and all thunderstorm mentions for this morning through this evening were removed, with only scattered light rain showers falling from mid-level clouds today resulting in only light precipitation. Another shortwave pushes a little better moisture and instability into the area from the west overnight, especially in our northern areas, with low shower and thunderstorm chances increasing again after midnight and continuing into the day Tuesday. The best chance for seeing any isolated to widely scattered activity will be north of KY Highway 80, with areas near the Tennessee border likely missing out yet again. High temperatures will return to the mid- to upper-80s Tuesday under mostly sunny skies after cooling to the upper 70s to lower 80s today under mostly cloudy skies. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 301 AM EDT MON APR 13 2026 Ridging at the surface and aloft over the southeast CONUS will remain persistent during most of the long term period. A mean, positively tilted upper level trough will be situated mainly over the western half of the CONUS, with an associated, wavering frontal boundary from the southern plains to Great Lakes. Ascending flow off the Gulf (with higher moisture content) will be more predominant further to our west and northwest, closer to the aforementioned frontal boundary, and that is where the higher POPs will be in general. However, occasional shortwave troughs pressing into the upper level ridge as they pass through the flow will probably be enough to bring scattered showers/thunderstorms into our area at times. The GFS and ECMWF agree on the two most prominent waves giving us our highest POPs on Thursday into Thursday night, and again on Saturday night into Sunday. Without any cold frontal passages through Saturday, much above temperatures will dominate the period, with temperatures influenced by the potential occurrence of clouds/precip. The most significant wave aloft will be the one next weekend, which is expected to be strong enough to finally bring another cold frontal passage, with somewhat lower temperatures by Sunday. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning) ISSUED AT 729 AM EDT MON APR 13 2026 VFR conditions prevailed at 12z TAF issuance, and this is expected to continue through the TAF period even with light shower activity at times through early this evening, as this activity will be falling from mid-level clouds given the magnitude of dry air remaining in the lower atmosphere. Current and future shower activity will be falling from elevated bases over rather dry lower levels. This will allow for gusty and erratic outflow winds up to 25 kts near in and near any shower activity today. Southwest breezes will increase as surface heating increases through the daytime hours, supporting gusts of 15 to 25 kts this afternoon, highest in the Bluegrass region (i.e, KIOB). Winds will diminish with the loss of daytime heating around sunset this evening. However, a disturbance will push a low-level jet into the area after ~04z this evening, resulting in the development of LLWS at most if not all terminals. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...CMC LONG TERM...HAL/CMC AVIATION...CMC  462 FXUS65 KRIW 131536 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 936 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Windy conditions, with gusts between 20 and 40 mph, are expected through sunset tonight. Gusty winds combined with low humidity will result in elevated to critical fire weather conditions across central and southern Wyoming. - Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible (30-60%) this afternoon and evening across western and northern Wyoming. A strong shower or thunderstorm could produce gusty 20 to 30 mph winds. - A cold weather system is forecast to bring widespread precipitation late Wednesday through Friday, with most locations seeing measurable snowfall by Friday. - A hard freeze (28 degrees or colder) is looking likely (80% + chances) across the area Thursday night and especially Friday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 327 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 It is often said that Wyoming can experience many different seasons in a week. This is especially so during the transition time, and especially during the Spring as the battle between warm air from the south and cold air to the north holding on for dear life. We currently have another in the series of shortwaves rotating around an upper level low now moving into California. It is bringing some showers, mainly to western Wyoming. And some of this is in the form of snow, including at the Jackson Hole airport, where 700 millibar temperatures falling to around minus 4 have dropped snow levels to around 6500 feet. The steadiest precipitation should be over shortly after sunrise, but the chance of showers will linger through the day. Otherwise, things looks somewhat similar to yesterday, with a scattering of showers across the area with a few thunderstorms thrown in. Once again, the best coverage will be in western Wyoming with areas East of the Divide dry most of the day. The chance for strong storms looks less through, with cooler temperatures and less instability. And we have another concern, fire weather. The approaching shortwave will bring gusty to strong wind to portions of the area, mainly in the southwestern Wind Corridor from east of Rock Springs through Natrona County. There is a brief period of 700 millibar wind rising to 50 knots around 9 am in this vicinity. Ensemble guidance also shows a greater than 1 out 2 chance of wind gusts past 50 mph as well. However, at this point, critical fire weather looks to be the greater impact. Temperatures are running cooler than on Sunday. However, with a greater than 1 in 2 chance of relative humidity falling below 15 percent for three hours, we have decided to go with a Red Flag Warning for Natrona County. Elsewhere, relative humidity does not look to reach critical levels. Elevated fire weather is certainly a possibility though. Tuesday still looks to be a driest day across the area. Reasoning is the same as yesterday with the upper level low passing south of the area over Colorado. Models have come into better agreement with keeping the best forcing and moisture south of the area. The chance of greater than a tenth of an inch or precipitation is less than 1 out of 4 except in far southern Sweetwater County and the higher elevations of the northwest. Most areas should have a decent day with somewhat above normal temperatures and much less wind. Attention then turns to the next, stronger system moving in for the end of the week. An upper level low will move onshore in British Columbia on Wednesday and move toward Wyoming Thursday, bring a cold front and a decent amount of moisture. There is somewhat better agreement in regards to timing. A few showers may occur Wednesday afternoon, but any substantial precipitation should hold off until after sunset Wednesday. It will bring some gusty to strong wind though Wednesday into Thursday, following the usual progression of pre frontal Muddy Gap to Casper on Wednesday and Wednesday night pre frontal and transitioning to northwest / cold advection areas on Thursday and Thursday night like Buffalo, the Bighorn Basin and Wind River Basin on Thursday and Thursday night. Many locations have a greater than 1 in 2 chance of wind gusts past 45 mph during this time. However, of greater interest though is what will happen with something we desperately need, precipitation. This system is a fairly wet one, with precipitable waters as much as 150 percent of climatological normals. However, the exact track of the low is still in question as well as some mesoscale features with it. As a result, confidence remains rather low on the resultant placement of the heaviest precipitation and any potential amounts. So, this is when we dive into the wondrous realm of probabilistic and ensemble forecasting. And the National Blend of Models has good news in this regard, with a large majority of the area having a greater than 1 in 2 chance of greater than a quarter of an inch of precipitation from Wednesday night through Friday night. And this will be a cold system following the frontal passage, with snow levels falling to the basin floors Thursday evening. Most areas have at least a 1 in 2 chance of greater than an inch of snow over a similar period. Many of the northerly upslope areas, like Lander, the southern Big Horn Basin and Casper, have a greater than 1 in 2 chance of 4 inches or more. However, this is far from certain. Also, with recent warm temperatures and warm ground, any predicted amounts will likely not be the amount on peoples yards as some will likely melt initially. At this point, the most impactful time would be Thursday night into Friday morning with gradually improving conditions Friday afternoon. This is the best chance for decent moisture we have had in quite a while though. And then we move into the next question, how cold will it get? Thursday night will likely drop into the 20s, but snow and possible travel problems will likely be of greater concern during this time frame. The timeframe we are looking at is Friday night for the coldest temperatures. There are a couple of concerns though. One, the models are split on if it can clear. If it remains cloudy, temperatures may stay a bit warmer. Also, snow cover will be a big factor. If snow is lighter then expected and if the strong April sun can melt it off Friday, it might not get as cold. As we head to the ensemble guidance again, much of the area has at least a 1 in 2 chance of low temperatures falling below 20 degrees. Now, no one should be planting gardens or crops this early in Wyoming, long time residents know this. The main concern is with budding trees, flowers as well as sprinkler systems that may freeze. It is still a long way off, but we will have to watch it. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 518 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A few showers continue to drift across western WY this morning, but these initial showers will are not expected to impact local airports this morning. The next round of showers develops early this afternoon, bringing more restrictions at KJAC mainly after 20Z. Showers will not be as numerous today, and associated wind gusts will be more limited as they pass. Showers are also possible at KBPI/KPNA, but are less likely and will have lesser impacts. Outside of shower activity, southwest winds will be gusty again today, especially east of the divide. Winds at KCPR will gust above 40kts, with peak gusts near 50kts in the afternoon. Winds and shower activity will decrease after sunset. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 327 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A combination of humidity falling below 15 percent, a southwest wind gusting over 50 mph and dry fuels will bring critical fire weather to Natrona County this afternoon. Elsewhere, relative humidity should not reach critical levels. However, gusty wind and humidity falling to 20 percent may bring elevated fire weather this afternoon. Conditions should improve on Tuesday as wind decreases and relative humidity moves somewhat higher. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for WYZ280. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hattings AVIATION...Straub FIRE WEATHER...Hattings  214 FXUS64 KHUN 131539 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1039 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1039 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 - Low RH values and gusty winds may result in elevated fire weather conditions Tuesday through Wednesday. - There is a low chance of thunderstorms on Thursday. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 1039 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 On a large scale upper air view, a troughing west and ridging east pattern was in place across the CONUS. The main polar jet was in place from the northern Baja to the southern Great Lakes. This disturbance laden flow was producing some upglide at times within the 300-305K region (~850-720 mb), mainly with mid-level clouds and a moisture maxima, was producing light showers from the NW Mississippi and Arkansas Delta region, across western and middle Tennessee, and the Ohio Valley. Cloud bases over and around our area were mainly at or above 10000ft AGL. Therefore rain falling from these clouds should mostly evaporate before reaching the ground. The echoes via radar look "intense" enough, so we cannot rule out a few light showers and/or sprinkles the remainder of the morning and this afternoon. Shower activity if it occurs should be confined to parts of NW Alabama and maybe the northern portions of Lincoln, Moore, Franklin counties in Tennessee. Otherwise a mix of clouds and sun (more clouds) are forecast across the area today. With S-SW winds of 5-15 mph, high temperatures later today should rise into the lower 80s. The above mentioned upglide and mid-level moisture axis should be shunted a bit more to the west this evening. Thus cloud coverage tonight should range from mostly clear east to partly cloudy west. With more clouds and milder conditions west, low temperatures should cool from the mid 50s east to lower 60s west with light southerly winds. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday) Issued at 1039 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 High pressure at the surface east of the southeast coast, and upper ridging over the eastern Gulf region will control the general weather situation over and around the Tennessee Valley as we go into the mid week. With more sun and ever so higher heights and thickness values, very warm and dry conditions will continue. As such, high temperatures both Tuesday and Wednesday should top out in the mid 80s, with lows Tuesday night in the mid 50s east to lower 60s west. High temperatures in the mid 80s and dewpoints mainly in the 50s will result in minimum afternoon relative humidities reduced into the lower 30s percent. While these are above critical outdoor fire levels, they are low enough (plus dry antecedent conditions) along with daily winds from the SW 5-15 mph, and gusts over 20 mph in the afternoon, could result in dangerous outdoor fire weather concerns. Area residents are urged to exercise caution regarding outdoor fires, and pay heed to any outside fire restrictions and/or bans. Depending upon local conditions, outdoor fires could grow and spread more rapidly than one anticipates. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 954 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026 Heading into the latter half of the week, an upper wave will run into the ridge that has been hanging onto the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. As the wave lifts into the Upper Midwest Thursday afternoon, another weaker wave seems to develop in the Lower MS Valley. This southern wave will bring a low chance (20-40%) of showers and some thunderstorms on Thursday. We are in desperate need of rainfall, so will take what little amount we can get out of Thursday. Those rainfall chances will be short lived as a ridge builds back into the region on Friday. This will push daytime highs to even more unseasonably warm values than what we have been experiencing this Spring. Some of us could see our first 90 degree reading of the year on Friday afternoon, 15+ degrees above normal! Now this may not be considered hot for Alabama, however it is for mid April, so be sure to be heat smart. Take it slow, seek shade and remain hydrated. Welcomed rain chances return this weekend, sorry it's over the weekend, as a trough digs through the Plains and back up into the Midwest and drags a cold front into the Southeast. Unseasonably warm temps in the upper 80s will linger into Saturday but values will drop on Sunday after the frontal passage. Look for highs that are much cooler, yet seasonable, in the mid to upper 70s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 524 CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the period with SCT/BKN decks of high cirrus clouds passing overhead. Winds may become gusty out of the SSW/SW this afternoon between 10-20 kts, before weakening after sunset. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...RSB SHORT TERM....RSB LONG TERM....JMS AVIATION...AMP.24  131 FXUS61 KBUF 131540 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1140 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Only minor changes to the forecast with this update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Windy with a few showers at times this afternoon. 2) Warm with rounds of showers and thunderstorms through much of the work week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Windy with a few showers at times this afternoon. A mid level shortwave and associated surface trough crossing the eastern Great Lakes will support an area of showers from the Genesee Valley eastward. The rain will only last for a few hours at any one location, ending across the Genesee Valley and western Finger Lakes by early afternoon, then across the eastern Lake Ontario region by mid afternoon. The lake plains will be mainly dry this afternoon as stable lake shadows expand ENE of the lakes. A few more scattered showers may develop through the afternoon and evening away from the lake shadows, mainly across the Southern Tier, Finger Lakes, and higher terrain east of Lake Ontario. There may be just enough instability to support an isolated weak thunderstorm or two, but coverage will be very sparse. Most of the area will be dry through the majority of tonight. Another low level jet segment, increasing moisture transport and warm advection, and elevated instability over the central Great Lakes will approach by daybreak Tuesday. This will support an increasing chance of showers and a few thunderstorms by Tuesday morning. A strong 50-60 knot low level jet will diminish to 40-45 knots this afternoon. The strong winds will partially mix down to the surface with some diurnal mixing, but overall poor lapse rates in cloud cover and showers will prevent full mixing of stronger winds from aloft. Expect gusts in the 30-40 mph range in most areas, and up to 45 mph in the normally windy locations from the Niagara Frontier to Rochester. Winds will quickly diminish early this evening as the low level jet moves away. KEY MESSAGE 2...Warm with rounds of showers and thunderstorms through much of the work week. Large scale upper level trough will be evolving across the western CONUS as we head into Tuesday. This will allow at least some amplification of an eastern CONUS ridge with the center of the upper high located over the eastern Gulf, where it will remain nearly stationary through much of the upcoming work week before getting suppressed a bit further south late in the work week as a stronger/more amplified upper level trough crosses the eastern CONUS. Eastern ridge will be somewhat flat and will provide the conduit for ill-timed pieces of weak shortwave energy to eject out of the base of the western trough and move northeast along the periphery of the eastern ridge, which unfortunately looks to be right over or very near the lower Great Lakes region. Meanwhile at the surface, a generally west-to-east oriented quasi-stationary surface boundary will linger somewhere near the NY/Canadian border, acting as a conduit for surface waves to travel along as they make their way northeast across the CONUS. These waves of low pressure will also cause subtle north/south oscillations of the surface boundary as they approach, then exit the region. The exact position of the surface boundary and timing of shortwave energy aloft will play a large role in our weather this week. With that said, the surface boundary does look like it will remain close to or right over New York State for the Tuesday through at least Wednesday night or Thursday timeframe. Model runs over the past couple of cycles showing the ingredients in place for the possibility of severe weather, especially now that we're getting into the hi-res window. This will ultimately depend on the location of the surface boundary and timing of surface waves and/or shortwave energy aloft. Close proximity of surface boundary makes for a less favorable environment for severe weather as persistent cloud cover and showers will limit instability during the peak heating hours. That said, if the front moves just far enough north allowing the clouds to break, along with shortwave energy moving across the area during peak heating, then chances for severe storms would get much better. PWATs will average around 1.25" which will allow for localized heavy rainfall with any thunderstorms that do develop. Areawide basin average rainfall amounts look to fall in the 1.00" to 2.00" range through Thursday, so although within bank rises will likely be observed on creeks and rivers, the overall threat for more widespread flooding remains low. One other aspect will be the warm and even somewhat humid conditions that we will experience much of this week, with the higher humidity piece the more unusual element during a mid-April warmup. Unlike our neighbors to the south who may experience record or near-record daily highs this week, more persistent cloudiness and showers will likely limit daily high temperatures to the 70s for most areas, with record highs for all three of our climate sites in the 80s. However, this will also limit our daily diurnal temperature range, with overnight lows very mild by mid April standards. In fact, although it looks like we may not break any daily high temperature records, record warm minimum records will be challenged. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A strong 50-60 knot low level jet will remain in place this morning before diminishing somewhat to 40-45 knots this afternoon. This will initially produce low level wind shear early this morning before an increase in boundary layer mixing allows for stronger surface wind gusts. Expect gusts in the 25 to 35 knot range areawide, and locally 35-40 knots northeast of Lake Erie including KBUF, KIAG, and KROC. Winds will quickly diminish early this evening. A mid level shortwave and associated surface trough will cross the eastern Great Lakes this morning, producing a few hours of mainly light showers moving from west to east across the region. The more organized showers will exit the eastern Lake Ontario region by early to mid afternoon. The rest of the afternoon and evening will be mainly dry on the lake plains, with a few additional scattered showers developing across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes, and east of Lake Ontario. There may be an isolated weak thunderstorm or two this afternoon and evening, but coverage will be very sparse. Tonight will be mainly dry, with the chance of showers and a few thunderstorms then increasing again towards Tuesday morning across Western NY as the remnants of upstream convection approach. CIGS will deteriorate to MVFR from west to east today following the arrival of the rain, with some local IFR across higher terrain. IFR stratus may also develop over and just east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario this afternoon through tonight as higher dewpoints cross the cold lake waters and allow a marine layer to develop. Outlook... Tuesday through Thursday...VFR/MVFR with some local IFR at times. Numerous rounds of showers and scattered thunderstorms. Friday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of a few showers. && .MARINE... A strong low level jet will remain in place today as a surface trough crosses the lower Great Lakes. Gusty SSW winds will become more WSW following the passage of the trough, with Small Craft Advisory conditions on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Winds will quickly diminish this evening as the low level jet moves away and the boundary layer stabilizes. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020- 040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for LOZ030. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LOZ042-043. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LOZ044-045. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hitchcock/JM/TMA AVIATION...Hitchcock MARINE...Hitchcock  249 FXUS63 KILX 131542 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1042 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - The stretch of warm weather is expected to last through Friday, with daily temperatures climbing near 80 degrees, and at times, the mid-80s. Breezy winds, occasionally reaching 25-35 mph, will accompany this warm period. - This week will be riddled with thunderstorm potential. Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday currently exhibit the highest probability (15-30%) of severe weather. - There is also potential for substantial accumulative rainfall throughout the week, with our multi- model ensemble predicting a medium (40-60%) chance of exceeding 2 inches through Saturday in areas north of Interstate 72. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1040 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Updated the forecast a few times this morning with increasing chances of convection over the nw half of CWA rest of today, with highest chances over IL river valley. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms were currently over the IL river valley with a cluster of thunderstorms west of Macomb and just north of Keokuk Iowa and tracking ENE. Highs in the low to mid 80s look on track with breezy SSW winds gusting 25-30 mph with more moist dewpoints in the 60s today. SPC day1 update has expanded marginal risk of severe storms this afternoon about as far south as I-72 with slight risk in northeast Marshall county. Per SPC discussion...A subtle mid level short wave was supporting this convection despite a weak cap in place. Steep mid level lapse rates and 30-40 kt effective shear could support initially isolated hail potential, but a more organized surface-based severe risk could manifest if some of the more- aggressive early morning short term guidance trends materialize (HRRR/RAP/RRFS). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 257 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .Pattern Recognition... A strong pattern of low-level warm air advection will usher in a week of weather more typical of early June than mid- April, characterized by hot and humid conditions. High temperatures will generally reach near 80 degrees, and at times, the mid-80s. This pattern is driven by an active upper- level flow, with two vigorous troughs moving inland from the West Coast over the next seven days. With persistent troughing over the western U.S. and a continuous northward surge of Gulf moisture up the Mississippi Valley, intermittent periods of thunderstorm activity are favored. However, significant forecast uncertainty remains regarding the exact timing and location of these storms. Vigilance will be necessary not only for severe weather but also for localized flooding as successive convective events may compound throughout the week. .Monday... Atmospheric instability will increase across the region today due to the advection of a robust Elevated Mixed Layer (EML) across the Central Plains toward the Upper- Mississippi Valley. This will occur atop a veering low-level jet axis extending roughly from central Oklahoma to southeast Wisconsin. Warm and humid surface conditions are anticipated, with surface temperatures near 80 F and dewpoints in the 60s. This boundary layer environment is expected to boost surface-based CAPE to approximately 2000 J/kg, particularly in areas near and west of Interstate 55. Despite the high CAPE, the overall threat for thunderstorms appears low. Residual subsidence and a marginal increase in mid- level height tendencies behind last night's shortwave trough are expected to maintain a strong and persistent cap, as indicated by various model soundings. Given the absence of a robust forcing mechanism, the most likely scenario is no thunderstorm activity today. Only the 00z HRRR and ARW models break the cap, suggesting isolated development north of a Macomb to Bloomington line, primarily across northern Illinois between Noon and 4pm. This area is closer to the low-level jet axis and in the vicinity of the EML/better lapse rates. The chance of storms is low (20-40%), but if the cap erodes in this localized area, the favorable CAPE/shear parameter space would support supercells or multicell clusters capable of producing large hail and damaging thunderstorm winds. .Tuesday... The potential for severe convection on Tuesday is conditional, stemming from moderate instability. This instability is supported by surface temperatures near 85 F, dewpoints in the 60s, and favorable mid-level lapse rates, all of which will align with an intensifying mid-level jet. However, the synoptic forcing remains somewhat nebulous. The main surface front appears north of our forecast area; the position of any convective outflows are currently unknown; and there is no strong shortwave lifting across the region. Mesoscale soundings show a "loaded gun" profile, but the trigger mechanism for storm initiation remains unclear into the afternoon and early evening hours. Consequently, significant uncertainty exists regarding the timing and location of storm development, and CAMs are struggling to accurately depict the initiation and evolution of storms on Tuesday. Global models are indicating the higher probability of widespread convection late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. This activity is tied to a strengthening low-level jet and an initial shortwave disturbance ejecting ahead of a more potent trough tracking across the lee of the Rockies. While the exact path of this leading wave is still uncertain, the favorable CAPE/shear environment is expected to support elevated supercells and multicell clusters over central or northern Illinois. Potential hazards include large hail, isolated downburst winds, and localized heavy rainfall. .Wednesday & Thursday... The forecast for Wednesday is also conditional, largely dependent on the persistence and location of convective outflow/debris from the preceding night. The ECMWF suggests this debris may linger over our area through Wednesday morning, preceding the main upper trough. In contrast, the GFS places the debris further north, closer to the surface front. If our area is largely clear by Wednesday morning, there is a risk of severe weather and localized flash flooding in the afternoon. However, if convective debris covers the area, the risks of severe weather and flash flooding will be significantly reduced. Regardless of the Wednesday outcome, Thursday looks to be a region-wide break from precipitation due to synoptic-scale subsidence moving in behind the departing upper trough. .This Weekend... Thunderstorm activity is then expected to return over the weekend, specifically Friday night into Saturday. This is associated with a compact shortwave trough lifting across the Mid- Mississippi Valley ahead of a pivoting, more vigorous trough and its accompanying cold front. The CAPE/shear parameter space once again appears volatile enough to support an organized severe convective risk, even though the front appears to pass during a diurnally unfavorable time. Following the cold frontal passage, temperatures will cool significantly from Saturday night through Monday as the warm, moist air mass from the previous week is flushed out. The latest NBM deterministic guidance supports Sunday afternoon high temperatures near 60 degrees, with overnight lows around 40 degrees. Frost potential is non-zero during this time, and will need to be monitored with subsequent updates. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 552 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A pair of low pressure systems will track across the northern Great Plains and Great Lakes, keeping central Illinois in a moderately strong southerly gradient throughout the period. MVFR ceilings are expected to become more widespread, building in from the northwest after 12Z and affecting central IL terminals through late morning, before rising above the MVFR threshold and scattering by afternoon. Southwest winds will favor a 180-220 direction and remain gusty, near 25 knots much of the time, although they will become more sporadic overnight. Due to increasing model trends, a PROB30 for TSRA has been introduced for KPIA and KBMI early this afternoon, primarily between 18Z and 22Z. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...MJA UPDATE...07 DISCUSSION...MJA AVIATION...MJA  457 FXUS66 KSEW 131555 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 855 AM PDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Onshore flow today with showers mainly in the interior and Cascades. Cool, wet and windy conditions Tuesday into Wednesday with heavy snow possible in the Cascades. Drier weather is in store Thursday into the weekend with high pressure. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...Onshore flow continues today with showers mainly in the interior and Cascades, especially King and Snohomish counties due to low level convergence. Up in the mountains, snow levels will hover around 5000 ft then lower to around 4000 ft this afternoon. Cool, wet and windy conditions are favored Tuesday and Wednesday as a deep upper low spins down B.C. and into WA. Snow levels will start around 3500 on Tuesday but fall to around 1500 on Wednesday with snow in the Cascades and all passes. Periods of heavy snow is possible - a Winter Storm Watch is in effect. Expect windy conditions on Tuesday with S/SW winds gusting to 20-30 mph (peaking Tuesday evening). Temperatures will track below average both days with lows in the 30s and highs in the 40s to around 50. The air mass is slightly unstable on Wednesday with the cool low overhead and there is also a slight chance of thunderstorms. Precipitation tapers off Wednesday night as the low exits east. 33 && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...Western WA is under dry northerly flow Thursday and Friday as high pressure forms offshore. Low temperatures will remain cool and in the 30s with freezing temperatures (frost) possible around the south sound both mornings. Highs will reach the mid 50s. The ridge slides inland over the weekend for warmer conditions and highs in the interior in the lower 60s. An upper low slowly tracks south through the offshore waters on Sunday with a chance of showers over western WA. 33 && .AVIATION... North to northwesterly flow aloft as weak troughiness remains over western Washington. Mixed conditions with VFR to localized LIFR (KPAE) being observed so far this morning. Areas of low ceilings conditions will likely continue throughout the morning and the first half of the afternoon. Could see conditions pop back and forth from MVFR/VFR throughout the late afternoon. Latest guidance has conditions falling back down to MVFR later in the evening (30-40%) for most terminals in the interior. S/SW winds 8 to 12 knots this morning with a few gusts up to 20 kts possible at times this afternoon as onshore flow continues. KSEA...VFR/MVFR conditions at the terminal so far this morning. These conditions are slated to remain throughout much of the morning and afternoon, with some guidance suggesting a 30% chance of VFR later in the afternoon. Conditions will then lower to MVFR once again in the evening and in the overnight hours. Southwesterly winds 8 to 12 knots with the potential for some gusts up to 20 kts this morning. Winds look to remain above 10 knots throughout the afternoon. Mazurkiewicz/41 && .MARINE... Surface high pressure developing offshore in the northeastern Pacific. Onshore flow continues over the area waters as well for the small craft advisory in the Strait of Juan De Fuca for enhanced westerlies. A stronger frontal system will approach the area waters late Tuesday into Wednesday for breezy conditions and elevated seas. A small craft advisory has been issued for all of the coastal water zones starting early Tuesday as S/SW winds increase ahead of the front. More widespread headlines are likely for the interior waters as we get closer, along with the potential for some gale strength winds especially in the Strait. Coastal seas 6 to 8 feet throughout the remainder of today, with seas increasing upward to 9 to 12 feet by Tuesday afternoon. Seas look to remain above 10 feet through Thursday before decreasing by Friday to 3 to 5 feet. Mazurkiewicz && .HYDROLOGY... No river flooding expected over the next 7 days. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday evening for Cascades of Pierce and Lewis Counties- Cascades of Snohomish and Northern King Counties-Cascades of Southern King County-Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit Counties. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Tuesday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Tuesday to 5 AM PDT Wednesday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm. && $$