318 FXUS64 KTSA 131610 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1110 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1103 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 - Warm, humid, and breezy southerly flow continues for much of the week. Most days will have at least a low chance of precipitation. - A window for higher-end severe weather potential exists Tuesday into Wednesday. - Another chance of showers and thunderstorms is expected Friday to Saturday before cooler air arrives. && .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight ) Issued at 1103 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Deep south to southwest flow will continue across the area today, leading to persistent warm and moist air advection. Lower level clouds will partly clear out by this afternoon with very warm temperatures developing, mainly in the low to mid 80s. Surface winds will gust to 25-35 mph through sundown. Although thermodynamics look favorable, given limiting forcing, we are not expecting any storms to develop today for most areas. But if a storm did pop off (10-20% chance), it could become severe. Mild and breezy conditions will remain overnight, with low temperatures well above normal, generally in the upper 60s to near 70. Low clouds may redevelop, but no rain is expected. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Monday) Issued at 1103 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 An upper level low will approach the area from the west Tuesday into Wednesday. This will put the area under the right entrance region of an upper level jet, helping to increase ascent. This will line up with robust dry line forcing across central Oklahoma and lower level moisture near the 99th percentile for this time of year. Most CAMs are showing storms blowing up along the dry line Tuesday afternoon, moving into the area during the evening and overnight hours. Forecast soundings show robust low level instability, good wind shear, and curving low level hodographs. All of these are consistent with the potential for higher end severe convection. This would include large hail, damaging wind, and isolated tornadoes. Scattered storms will likely continue into Wednesday as a weak boundary approaches the area. Additional strong or severe storms will be possible into Wednesday evening with the potential for all severe hazards. Storm potential will wrap up into Thursday morning as the upper level forcing moves east. Southerly flow reinvigorates Thursday and Friday with very warm and humid conditions remaining in place. Highs will reach the mid to upper 80s. By later Friday the next upper level trough will approach the area, with the upper level jet aligning favorably to enhance forced ascent. Showers and storms will line up along the cold front as it passes through the region. Good instability will pair with sufficient wind shear for at least some potential for severe weather. Behind the front, temperatures will be cooler for a few days with highs in the 60s to low 70s and lows in the 40s to upper 30s. Temperatures will warm back up next week with upper level ridging returning to the area. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 627 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 BKN to OVC MVFR ceilings will persist this morning across all sites, perhaps briefly falling to near IFR category across SE OK, including KMLC. By late morning into the afternoon, low clouds are expected to erode from west to east, with a return to VFR across E OK this afternoon. Low clouds will likely be more stubborn across AR sites, but several hours of VFR remain possible this evening before low clouds are forecast to redevelop into tonight. There is a low chance of a shower or thunderstorm this afternoon, mainly in E OK, but probability remains too low to include in TAF at this time. Sfc winds remain breezy out of the south through the forecast period, with gusts 20-30 kts. The LLJ strengthens again tonight with LLWS developing areawide. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 84 71 84 66 / 10 10 30 70 FSM 82 69 84 67 / 10 20 10 50 MLC 83 69 82 66 / 10 20 20 60 BVO 85 67 86 64 / 10 10 40 60 FYV 79 66 82 64 / 10 10 10 50 BYV 81 68 82 66 / 10 10 20 50 MKO 82 69 81 64 / 0 10 20 70 MIO 82 70 82 65 / 10 10 30 70 F10 84 69 81 64 / 10 20 30 70 HHW 81 66 80 65 / 10 20 10 40 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...06 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...43  550 FXUS64 KBMX 131616 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1116 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1111 AM CDT MON APR 13 2026 - Fire danger will remain elevated through the week due to recent dryness, low relative humidity values, and increased winds at times. Outdoor burning is highly discouraged. - Near-record high temperatures are expected each day this week with no rain chances, causing drought conditions to worsen. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 1111 AM CDT MON APR 13 2026 The forecast remains on track from the overnight shift, with only minor adjustments made. Looking out the window, there's a rare sighting of radar echoes just to our northwest. These echoes are associated with mid to upper-level shortwave impulses riding up and over the 590 decameter ridge centered just to the west of the Florida Peninsula. The KBMX 12z sounding measured a measly 0.55 inches of precipitable water with considerable dry air measured aloft to 700mb. In other words, there's little to no chance of any rainfall moving into the forecast area today. Any radar echoes that happen to move into our far NW counties today will have a very low chance of actually reaching the surface. Mostly to partly cloudy skies will remain in place however, which will keep temperatures from rising above the low to mid 80s across the NW half of the CWA. The SE half closer to the I-85 corridor could approach those upper 80s with clouds more scattered in nature. Surface winds will remain breezy at times from the south due to the strong pressure gradient between the 1030mb ridge dominating over the western Atlantic and storm system moving across the Great Plains. As mentioned over the past several forecast cycles, we'll stay just shy of Red Flag criteria in terms of RH values but highly advise against any burning. Dry ground and fuel conditions would favor rapid fire growth capable of spreading quickly with forecast winds of 10 to 15mph this afternoon. Following a fairly mild overnight period with lows in the 50s to near 60 once again, we'll start to slowly but surely inch closer to the 90 degree mark by the end of the week. Records will certainly be in jeopardy, which are listed in the climate section below for reference. The best chance of hitting 90 degrees will be on Thursday or Friday before the cold front arrives by Saturday night and into Sunday. Global guidance is unfortunately trending drier as the front moves across the region on Sunday due to lack of low-level moisture return and upper level forcing far removed to our north. As drier air moves in on Monday and Tuesday of next week, fire weather concerns could increase once again with drought conditions continuing to worsen. 56/GDG Previous discussion: (Monday through next Sunday) Issued at 1144 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026 An unseasonably strong 590 decameter subtropical ridge will remain centered along the Florida Gulf Coast through Thursday, generally steering a series of shortwaves to the northwest of Central Alabama and resulting in near-record high temperatures each day. At low-levels a Bermuda high will maintain southerly low-level flow. However, the combination of easterly flow trajectories over the eastern Gulf, the shallow nature of the moisture, and strong downward mixing of dry air aloft will maintain a dry air mass, along with dry ground conditions. Weak vorticity maxima in southwest flow aloft will result in just some high clouds today. These clouds and onshore flow may knock a degree or two off of high temperatures, but they will still be well above normal. RH values will be slightly higher today while winds still remain a bit elevated. These will remain shy of red flag thresholds, but fire danger remains elevated nonetheless. Little change in air mass is expected Tuesday and Wednesday. High temperatures will be close to records. RH values will be near critical levels with slightly weaker winds. A shortwave temporarily weakens the ridge a bit on Thursday. Showers and thunderstorm activity off to our west/northwest will weaken as it encounters the dry air mass, with just low chances for showers and storms in our far northwest counties. The center of the ridge retrogrades to the central Gulf by Friday. Meanwhile a mid-level ridge axis also builds back to the north across the Southeast as a deeper trough digs across the western CONUS. Medium probabilities of highs reaching 90F are indicated by the NBM for Friday, which would be the first 90 degree readings of the season for many areas. Low to medium chances of highs reaching 90 continue on Saturday. The western trough pushes eastward over the weekend, with a frontal passage expected Saturday night. Ensemble cluster analysis indicates good agreement on the frontal passage, but some differences regarding the amplitude of the trough that will dictate rain coverage along the front. Rainfall amounts are still unimpressive with the more amplified solutions, however, with limited moisture return and most of the precipitation behind the front. Fire concerns may increase behind the front Sunday, especially in the southeast half of the area which looks to receive little to no rainfall. 32/JDavis && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1111 AM CDT MON APR 13 2026 VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period. Surface winds will prevail around 10 knots with gusts between 15 and 20 knots from the south this afternoon, then become light and variable overnight. 56/GDG && .FIRE WEATHER... Fire danger will remain elevated through this afternoon, getting very close to Red Flag criteria in a few locations. MinRHs are now forecast to drop into the upper 20s to near 30 along and east of the I-65 corridor, with mostly mid 30s elsewhere. 20ft winds are also forecast to gust between 15 and 20mph at times. RH values are forecast to drop Tuesday and Wednesday down to critical thresholds around 25%, while 20ft winds will gust to 10-15 mph. No rainfall is expected through the end of the week. A cold front is forecast to move through Saturday night, which may increase fire weather concerns through the weekend given a lack of significant rainfall expected with the frontal passage. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1102 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026 Record High Temperatures: April 13: KEET: 87/2017 KTCL: 87/1972 KMGM: 88/1972 April 14: KBHM: 89/1981 KEET: 85/2017 KANB: 89/1981 KTCL: 88/2003 KMGM: 89/1972 April 15: KBHM: 88/1936 KEET: 85/2012 KANB: 89/1972 KTCL: 88/1972 KMGM: 91/1972 April 16: KBHM: 89/1977 KEET: 84/2013 KTCL: 90/1955 KMGM: 90/1925 April 17: KBHM: 90/1955 KEET: 86/2013 KTCL: 92/1955 KMGM: 90/1955 April 18: KBHM: 91/2006 KEET: 90/2006 KANB: 90/1955 KMGM: 91/2006 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 84 54 86 55 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 84 57 86 57 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 84 60 87 60 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 84 58 86 57 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 85 57 87 57 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 84 57 86 59 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 86 55 88 57 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 85 55 87 57 / 0 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...56/GDG AVIATION...56/GDG  459 FXUS63 KDDC 131619 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1119 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry conditions through this forecast period with exception of central Kansas Tuesday evening - Above normal temperatures expected through Friday - Low RHs and gusty winds will increase fire danger each afternoon this week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1248 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Dry conditions are expected throughout this forecast with the exception of south central Kansas where a few thunderstorms will be possible in the evening Tuesday. Winds will generally be from the southwest through this forecast period with the exception of Wednesday when a weak cold front moves through briefly shifting winds to the northwest and again late week. Skies will will be clear today with some high clouds tonight. The remainder of the forecast looks to be mostly clear to partly cloudy. The combination of low Relative Humidity and strong winds will increase fire danger this week. Check the latest fire weather headlines for more information. As for temperatures, lows this morning and tomorrow morning will range from the mid 40s west to low 60s east with highs today and tomorrow in the 80s. The probability of reaching over 90 degrees is greater than 50 percent across south central Kansas each day. Lows tomorrow night will range from the upper 30s west to upper 50s east. Expect 70s and 80s through Friday with a dip into the 60s Saturday behind a possible cold front. We quickly rebound into the 70s Sunday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1115 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Very warm and dry conditions will continue on southwest winds this TAF period. Strongest winds this afternoon will be mid to late afternoon/early evening with sustained winds 18 to 23 knots, gusting around 30 knots at times. Widespread VFR flight category will continue through mid-week given absence of low stratus cloud development and/or fog in this warm and dry pattern. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hovorka_42 AVIATION...Umscheid  822 FXUS63 KMKX 131630 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1130 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms may develop this afternoon with low severe potential across portions of southern WI, but the main focus of the activity will be for the storms that develop along the warm front in central WI this evening and overnight. All severe hazards possible along and south of the warm front as well as flash flooding. - Heavy rain this evening and tonight with the storms resulting in localized higher rainfall exceeding 1-3 inches. Thus a Flood Watch is in effect for counties north of I-94 tonight. Also expected rises on area rivers and cresting above flooding stage with the additional rainfall. - Additional windows for heavy rainfall, flooding, and thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday and again later this week. && .UPDATE... Issued 1126 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Continue to see a very active spring pattern today through Wednesday across southern WI. Strong to severe thunderstorm environment will set up across the area each day varying in location and strength. Will also see heavy rainfall associated with this activity and widespread 1-3 inches possible through the middle of the week, but localized higher rainfall greater than forecast will be possible contributing to flooding impacts. First opportunity for severe and flooding potential will be later today/tonight. Will be another window on Tuesday, which has the better potential for more widespread severe activity over the CWA. Then another window will occur on Wednesday, but will be a bit more uncertain as it depends on what happen today and tomorrow. This Afternoon: Environment is looking primed for convection across southern and central WI with a warm front strewn across the central part of the state as a surface low over NE lifts eastward. In the warm sector south of the main boundary over southern WI already seeing SBCAPE exceeding 1000 J/kg and only look to increase toward 1500 J/kg or more through the afternoon. Paired with dewpoints already in the 60s along with a MCV down in MO lifting northeast into southern WI through the afternoon, may be the focus and trigger for convection to develop early this afternoon across southern portions of the CWA. Models do hint at some meager deep layer shear (0-6km) to around 30- 35kt with effective layer shear 40-45kt and may be enough to allow for a few storms to grow a bit taller and produce hail and gusts of winds. Main window will be from 1pm - 6pm. This Evening into Tonight: Any afternoon activity may erode some the instability south of the warm front. Otherwise, the bulk of the severe and flooding activity is looking to develop early this evening through tonight generally along and around the warm front boundary toward the northern half of the CWA (generally north of I-94) as the nose of 40-55kt LLJ noses into WI. Still looking to see a few discrete development along the warm front back in west central WI early this evening where the instability and deep layer shear align with the LLJ. All severe hazards will be possible for discrete development south of the warm front and cannot rule a tornado or two as 0-1km SRH increased to around 200 m2/s2. Might see a few discrete sneak into our northwest, but majority of it looks to remain just outside our CWA. However given the easterly flow parallel to the frontal boundary expect to see this activity gradually merge and cluster more into a linear structure through the evening. This will transition the severe threat more toward wind and flooding. The 12z CAMs continue to trend toward a more southern shift in this activity and looking to impact our northern tier of counties through tonight. While damaging winds will be the primary severe threat, the convection training over the same area and producing locally higher amounts exceeding 1-3 inches over saturated soils may leading to localized flash flooding as well as rises on area rivers. Thus have issued a Flood Watch for the areas with the greatest concerns tonight. Expect this cluster to works its way along the boundary overnight with a bulk of the models having it move off and weaken after midnight through early Tuesday morning. Wagner && .SHORT TERM... Issued 1208 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026 Tonight through Monday night: The widespread light to brief moderate rainfall is expected to end from west to east across ern WI by 07Z, as the shortwave trough responsible for the rain moves away across Lake MI. Meanwhile, farther to the north, cyclogenesis over nrn Ontario and srn Hudson Bay will support a dominant low developing in said region, while its cold front shifts ewd across nrn WI. The front will weaken and stall over central or srn WI by 12Z Mon. The front will then move back to central WI as a warm front during the afternoon as sly winds increase over srn WI. The sly winds are a result of low pressure tracking ewd along the SD and NE border. Very steep mid level lapse rates around 8C/KM will overspread srn WI, capping a very mild and moist airmass. The return of low level moisture beneath the cap will simply result in widespread stratus and possibly even patchy drizzle by later in the day. Have lowered Max temps a bit to account for this. A weak shortwave trough will then track from the central Great Plains to srn MN by 00Z Tue, then across nrn WI Mon nt. This will shift the low pressure area and the nose of a strong low level jet across central WI. The warm sector will be strongly capped but right along and north of the front, convective initiation and severe convection is likely. There are differences among the models on the aforementioned features, but the CAMs and 00Z HREF trended north with the deep, moist convection. Some CAMS then suggest a MCS will slip esewd into central WI and possibly se WI from the late evening into the early morning hours. MUCAPE will range from 1500-2000 J/KG with mdt effective shear present. Damaging winds would be the main threat but cannot rule out the possibility of QLCS tornadoes if the MCS maintains maturity. Gehring && .LONG TERM... Issued 1208 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026 Tuesday through Sunday: A stationary front will reside in the vicinity of srn WI on Tue into Tue evening, while a vorticity maximum approaches in swly flow aloft. In the lower levels, low pressure will track across the central Great Plains into ern NE with the nose of a strong low level jet developing into srn WI. MLCAPE around 2000 J/KG and mdt deep layer shear is expected, and with the aforementioned lift, the cap is expected to erode. Scattered to numerous strong to severe convection will ensue either late afternoon or early evening and continue to expand. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threat with lesser chances for a few tornadoes. A more organized shortwave trough will then approach from the southwest Wed nt, but not before a vorticity maximums lifts nwd ahead of it into se WI by late Wed afternoon. Thus additional rounds of showers and storms are expected from Wed afternoon through the night. Some showers may linger on Thu as the shortwave trough passes in the morning. Yet another larger and stronger upper trough and n-s sfc trough will move out of the Great Plains and into the wrn Great Lakes for Fri nt-Sat. In summary, multiple rounds of showers and storms are forecast from Tue-Sat, with a few inches or more of rain possible. River rises are expected with some flooding possible. Some severe storms will likely occur at times. Gehring && .AVIATION... Issued 530 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 MVFR and IFR flight categories continue into this morning at all terminals, with gradual CIG improvements occurring from late morning into the afternoon hours. Stout layer of warm air aloft will keep at least SCT-BKN cloud coverage around through the entirety of the day. Can't rule out some -DZ from some of these clouds, though confidence in development & location is far too low to support any mentions at this time. Will be watching trends through the day. Significant convective development remains forecast over central and north-central Wisconsin this evening, with impacts currently most likely at SBM. Have inserted prevailing -TSRA mentions in the coming 12Z SBM update. How far south storms make it remain uncertain. Will need to monitor for some activity trying to make it as far south as I-94, though confidence in this occurring is much lower compared to areas further north. Have thus maintained PROB30 groups at MSN, UES and MKE in the 12Z update, with quiet conditions expected further south. Will be watching for LLWS potential once more tonight, with insertions possibly becoming necessary in coming updates. Quigley && .MARINE... Issued 1208 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026 A broad area of low pressure around 29.4 inches over Ontario becoming deeper over southern Hudson Bay early this morning. This will bring breezy south winds to all of Lake Michigan, but with gales expected over the north third into early this morning. A Gale Warning is in effect. Winds will weaken later this morning as the low quickly moves away and the trailing cold front stalls over central Lake Michigan. Then, a couple passing low pressure system along the stalled front will lead to intermittent showers and thunderstorms through the middle of the week. Areas of dense fog will likely occur at times due to a relatively mild and humid airmass over the cold waters. Gehring && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Flood Watch...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-WIZ057-WIZ058- WIZ059-WIZ060...4 PM Monday to 7 AM Tuesday. LM...Dense Fog Advisory...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565- LMZ567-LMZ868 until 7 AM Tuesday. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee  703 FXUS65 KBYZ 131636 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Billings MT 1036 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms through this evening with main threats being wind gusts 40-60 mph, heavy rain, and hail over southeast MT. - Gusty west to southwest winds (30 to 50 mph) over the western foothills today. - Stronger and colder storm system late Wednesday into Friday will bring significantly colder temperatures, high chances (50-90%) for precipitation (including low elevation snow Thursday night) and the potential for heavy mountain snow. && .UPDATE... Updated forecast to increase precipitation potential this morning and into this afternoon over most of the area. Upper low is spinning to the west of the area pushing energy and moisture over southern Montana creating a slow moving deformation zone over the area. This will bring a broader coverage and higher probabilities for precipitation today. Also lowered temperatures just a bit to account for the increased precipitation potential. SPC outlook has continued with a marginal thunderstorm outlook for few strong wind gusts over SE Montana this afternoon. Still looks like storm initiation around 2pm out that direction. An isolated thunderstorm can't be ruled out elsewhere across the forecast area this afternoon/evening but not expecting any impactful threats from this activity other than occasional lightning. Winds are gusting in the 40 to 50 mph range in Livingston at this time and expect gusty winds in the 30 to 45 mph to push east into Big Timber and Harlowton areas around mid-day, possibly moving as far east as Columbus and Lavina. This push of westerly winds will bring an end to precipitation from west to east late in the day and into the evening for western and central zones. Eastern areas will see precipitation chances linger into the overnight hours. Expecting a mostly dry day across the area tomorrow. Chambers && .DISCUSSION... Today through Sunday... The region remains under southwest flow as a low currently over Idaho is expected to push up a disturbance through the area today. Showers are expected to begin this morning over south central MT and move northeast through the morning reaching southeast MT by late morning to early afternoon. The HREF and individual hi-res models have trended up on the instability with MUCAPE values of around 500-750 J/kg and around 30 kts of 0-6 km shear. This will allow for a better environment for thunderstorms than we have seen the past couple days. Forcing and moisture will also be plentiful as the surface low moves over southeast MT and precipitable water values near three quarters of an inch. With this, the concern for heavy rain does arise with any stronger thunderstorms and wherever the low sets up as models are putting out slow storm motion. There is still some uncertainty within individual models on where this will set up, but the general area looks to be in the east central MT vicinity. Outside of the heavy rain threat, small hail and gusty winds 40-50 mph are possible. Currently, there is about a 40% chance for a stronger storm to produce wind gusts to 60 mph. Additionally, a weak pressure gradient over the western foothills will keep breezy west/southwest wind gusts of 30-45 mph today for areas of Livingston to Big Timber. As a more westerly flow builds in for Tuesday, precip chances are minimal (small chances over higher terrain). As a low pressure system moves in from the west late Wednesday, precipitation chances increase (50-80%). There is still some uncertainty on the exact track of this system as ensembles have energy splitting over our region or staying together. This would impact precip placement and totals. Into Thursday evening a push of cooler air moves through, bringing moderate chances for snow across the lower elevations. Currently, there is about a 50-80% chance for at least a quarter inch of precipitation for south central MT/northern WY and 20-40% chance for southeast MT late Wednesday through Friday morning. The Beartooth and Crazy mountains have about a 40-60% chance for at least an inch of liquid precip with about a 50% chance for about a half an inch for the Bighorns/Pryors. The Beartooth/Absarokas have about a 50-70% chance for at least a foot of snow, with a 20-30% chance in the Crazies and Bighorns. Higher heights looks to build in for the weekend, creating warmer and drier conditions. High temperatures for the week look to remain in the 50s and 60s through Wednesday, dropping to the upper 30s and 40s by Friday. Temperatures rebound into the 50s and 60s by the weekend. TS .AVIATION... VFR will prevail into the morning for most areas, with stratus and patchy fog over the east bringing areas of MVFR to IFR conditions from KMLS to KBHK down through K97M through roughly 16z. Patchy fog creating localized vsby reductions will burn off elsewhere through the morning hours. Look for southwest to west winds to increase over the western foothills (KLVM, K6S0, and K3HT) this morning. Another round of isolated to scattered showers will move into the area today. Over far eastern Montana (around KMLS, KBHK, and K97M), isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast during the afternoon and evening as well, with the potential for a few stronger storms with gusty and erratic winds of 40-60 kts, heavy rainfall and small hail being the main threat. Local MVFR conditions are possible with the convection. STP && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 060 039/066 042/067 039/046 026/047 028/058 035/068 6/W 11/U 01/E 59/W 53/J 11/U 01/B LVM 054 034/060 038/059 032/040 021/043 023/054 032/063 3/W 21/N 05/W 99/W 53/J 11/U 01/B HDN 059 037/067 037/070 037/050 025/047 024/059 032/070 5/W 21/B 11/B 49/W 64/J 21/U 11/U MLS 059 039/066 040/069 040/052 024/042 022/054 032/067 7/T 50/U 00/B 35/W 42/J 11/U 00/U 4BQ 059 037/064 039/070 042/058 024/041 023/052 030/067 5/T 21/U 00/U 14/W 63/J 11/U 00/U BHK 057 036/064 037/069 039/058 022/037 019/049 027/062 8/T 71/B 00/U 12/W 52/J 11/U 00/B SHR 055 031/061 033/066 037/051 021/041 020/052 027/065 6/T 12/W 00/B 29/T 86/J 21/U 11/U && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings  058 FXUS62 KMFL 131637 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1237 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1232 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 - Dangerous rip currents will continue at all east coast beaches of South Florida through at least Tuesday evening. - Gusty winds continue across south Florida today, especially along the immediate east coast where gusts up to 25-30 mph are possible. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Tuesday) Issued at 1232 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Stout mid-level ridging remains entrenched across the southeastern United States this afternoon as 500mb pressure heights remain around the 97th-99th percentile when compared to climatological norms. The ridge aloft is also represented nicely in recent ACARS soundings from SoFlo airports as a substantial amount of dry air remains in most of the vertical column with a subsidence inversion at 800- 900mb. At the surface, a sprawling ridge of high pressure remains in place across South Florida and much of the western Atlantic waters resulting in a continued gusty easterly flow at the surface across most of the region as the pressure gradient remains in place. Precipitable water values remain at or just above the 10th percentile for today's date, indicative of an atmosphere that remains anhydrous outside of an isolated sprinkle or two. A narrow layer of greater moisture at 4,000 to 5,000 feet will once again allow for the development of scattered flat-topped cumulus clouds that will remain vertically capped with height, confined to the layer by the subsidence inversion above. Deep-layer ridging will remain the status quo over South Florida tonight into Tuesday as the pressure gradient at the surface gradually relaxes. Precipitable water values will remain between the 10th to 25th percentile during this time period, with a subsidence inversion keeping any clouds vertically capped with height. Still cannot rule out a few brisk moving light showers moving onshore across the east coast metro due to the local maxima of moisture and instability from the Gulfstream waters. Even in a dry environment, the mesoscale moisture source could still spur some non-zero threat of showers as indicated by the HRRR and a few other convective models. Have opted to go above NBM guidance (0% POP) and added in a 10-15% chance of rain along the east coast of SoFlo tomorrow morning. A temperature gradient will continue across the region both during the day and overnight as onshore winds keep temperatures along the east coast cooler during the day and warmer overnight. High temperatures today and tomorrow will range from the upper 70s to low 80s across the east coast metro to upper 80s (even a smattering of low 90s) across the western half of South Florida. Overnight temperatures will range from the low 70s along the immediate east coast to low 60s across inland portions of the region tonight into early Tuesday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1232 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Deep layer ridging and copious amounts of dry air will remain throughout the vertical atmospheric column for much of the upcoming work week. Although surface ridging will remain entrenched across the region over the next several days, a weakening pressure gradient will result in a gradual relaxing of surface winds towards the end of the work week. Subsidence, low precipitable water values compared to historical climatological norms, and a lack of any significant rainfall & sufficient cloud cover will result in a continued warming trend across the majority of the region with the potential of high temperatures in the low 90s across the western half of South Florida by mid- week. An onshore breeze will keep high temperatures slightly cooler along the east coast but temperatures in the middle to upper 80s will be possible across the east coast metro during the second half of the week. Mid-level ridging will gradually elongate and flatten during the second half of the week as transient lobes (troughing) of mid-level vorticity advect eastward across the central United States while a new foci of surface high pressure develops across the southeastern United States. As the mid-level trough axis advects along, 500mb flow will briefly veer northwesterly as a new axis of mid-level ridging develops over the Gulf. A plume of deeper atmospheric moisture in the boundary layer will advect into the region via the anti-cyclonic flow around this feature which will usher in higher precipitable water values and slightly higher rain chances on Sunday into early next week. While spotty showers remain possible during this portion of the extended period, significant rainfall (any substantial drought relief) remains elusive for South Florida over the next several days. Generally speaking though, by the end of the week into the upcoming weekend there may be some low end shower chances along the east coast in the mornings, with some isolated seabreeze convection across the interior and west coast in the afternoons. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 VFR and breezy easterly flow throughout the TAF period at all terminals. Winds may lessen slightly overnight but will once again enhance after daybreak on Tuesday. && .MARINE... Issued at 1232 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Lingering hazardous winds will continue across the Atlantic waters today into Tuesday before improving towards mid-week. ENE winds 20-25 kts with seas of 6-7 feet are expected in the southern Atlantic waters today and may also be seen briefly at times in the northern local Atlantic waters off of the Palm Beach coast. While winds and seas will subside a bit for the remainder of the week after today, cautionary conditions will continue across the Atlantic as winds and gusts likely won't drop below 15 knots through the end of the week. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1232 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 The high risk for deadly rip currents will most likely continue for much of the week as consistent onshore flow continues. The strong onshore flow around the surface ridge will also result in elevated surf today with breakers around 4-6 ft. As winds gradually subside later in the work week, the rip current risk should gradually abate. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 70 81 69 81 / 0 0 0 0 West Kendall 66 83 65 83 / 0 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 69 82 68 82 / 0 0 0 0 Homestead 70 81 69 82 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 71 79 70 79 / 0 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 70 79 69 80 / 0 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 71 84 70 84 / 0 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 69 80 68 80 / 0 0 0 0 Boca Raton 70 80 69 80 / 0 0 0 0 Naples 66 87 65 87 / 0 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ168-172-173. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ630-650-651- 670-671. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hadi LONG TERM....Hadi AVIATION...Hadi  015 FXUS63 KGID 131648 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1148 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Despite a gradual early-spring "green up", continued/long- lasting very dry conditions (especially in the northwest half of our forecast area/CWA) continue to drive heightened fire weather concerns. Fire weather is clearly our main issue over these next 36 hours, and our entire CWA is under a Red Flag Warning for this afternoon, and our KS counties are under a Fire Weather Watch for Tuesday afternoon. - Additional, almost daily fire weather concerns (to at least near-critical levels) will likely continue beyond Tuesday, with Thursday looking like our next possible critical day that might require Warning issuance if trends hold. - Our next thunderstorm chances arrive mainly Tuesday evening into Wed AM (likely isolated/scattered coverage). Although we are not currently "outlooked" by SPC for a formal severe threat (primary threat zone should remain at least slightly to our east), would not be surprised if we end up with a few stronger storms (at least spotty small hail/gusty winds). - After a dry stretch centered on Wed night-Fri AM, our next large-scale system/cold front swing through Fri afternoon- Saturday. We'll have to maybe watch our extreme southeastern zones for a severe storm threat Friday afternoon (main threat zone currently projected barely to our south/east), and we MIGHT even catch a touch of late-season snow late Fri night- Sat AM as temps fall (not a "sure thing" in all model data). - Still several nights away, but with the growing season "ahead of schedule" due to considerable warmth this spring, Sat night-Sun AM might be a possible candidate for our first Frost Advisory and/or Freeze Warning of the season. - Temperatures broad overview: These next 7 days will surely average out warmer-than-normal, with highs most days 60s-80s, and lows mainly 40s/50s until late in the week. The overall- chilliest day looks to be Saturday, but not overly-cold with highs mainly 50s. && .UPDATE... Issued at 503 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 -- FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE, BIG PICTURE COMMENTS, AND ANY ABBREVIATED LONGER-TERM FORECAST NOTES (for beyond Tuesday): - Honestly, no truly "major" changes with the overall-theme of the next 7 days versus previous forecast. For all "big picture" highlights/concerns please refer to Key Messages already outlined above. - As expected, the majority of "forecast focus" this shift was on shorter-term fire weather concerns, with our entire CWA now under a Red Flag Warning for this afternoon (despite somewhat marginal wind speeds for some), and our KS zones now under a Fire Weather Watch for Tuesday afternoon (see separate Fire Weather section below for any further discussion on this topic). -- DETAILED FOCUS SOLELY ON THE SHORTER-TERM/NEXT 48 HOURS (through Tues night): - CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 4 AM: Although a rogue sprinkle might have barely brushed our extreme northern CWA earlier int he night, as expected it's been a dry night under a mix of clear skies and mainly thin high cirrus arriving from the southwest. In the mid-upper levels, water vapor satellite imagery/short term model data depict continued/persistent broad southwesterly flow over the Central Plains...downstream from a larger-scale trough over the western U.S. A very subtle ripple working thorugh our region overnight sparked a smattering of light showers/a few weak storms that passed almost entirely to our north overnight (over northern NE). At the surface, although not as windy as Sat night-Sun AM, it's been another night of steady southerly/southeasterly breezes in most places for most of the night (sustained speeds commonly 10-15 MPH/gusts 15-20+ MPH. That being said, winds especially over our far north/west-central counties have turned quite a bit lighter in recent hours, as the reside along a trough axis extended east-northeast from a roughly 1002 millibar low pressure center currently centered over southwestern NE (24 hours ago it appeared this surface low would track a bit farther north, closer to the SD border). Overnight low temps are eventually expected to bottom out ROUGHLY 5 degrees cooler than yesterday's readings...ranging from near-50 west, to upper 50s-low 60s east where breezes are little stronger/dewpoints a little higher. - TODAY: High confidence in a dry and seasonably-warm day, with any threat for thunderstorms (including severe) focusing well to our north-northeast (especially within the IA/MN/WI border area). Over the course of the day, the aforementioned surface low currently just on the western fringes of our CWA will gradually northeastward...reaching the NE/IA/SD border area by around sunset. As a result of this feature passing by to our north- then-northeast, breezes today will gradually transition from southerly, to southwesterly to more "true" westerly (and maybe even a touch northwesterly especially in western counties this afternoon). Effectively, this is a dryline pushing through, with dewpoints/relative humidity (RH) expected to really drop in its wake, and for temperatures to really jump. Despite a fair amount of high level clouds passing overhead mainly this morning, increasing sun this afternoon will help boost temps well into the mid-upper 80s (most of our CWA aimed 84-89...but short of April the records in the low 90s at Hastings/Grand Island). For most of our CWA, sustained winds this afternoon will average 10-20 MPH/gusts 15-25 MPH, although at least sporadic gusts to 30 MPH are a decent bet given deep mixing in the westerly low- level flow. This all ads up to a decent fire weather threat...with somewhat modest wind speeds being the main mitigating factor from even greater concerns. - THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT: While a rogue sprinkle cannot be totally ruled out, a dry forecast officially continues. At the surface, a shortwave trough passing by to our north will send a weak cold front southward through most of our CWA as the night wears on, its passage marked by a turn to light-but-steady north-northeasterly breezes. By sunrise Tuesday, this boundary is currently expected to very near the NE/KS border. Under mostly clear skies, low temps are expected to drop generally 5-10 degrees cooler than this morning's lows, with most places bottoming out mid 40s to low 50s. - TUESDAY DAYTIME: As our first larger-scale upper trough of the week (the first of two) approaches from the Rockies, the main feature at the surface will be a gradually-strenghening low pressure system developing into the NE/KS/CO border area to our west by late in the day. As this low strengthens, it will likely "tighten up" the aforementioned, generally west-east oriented frontal zone near the NE/KS border to start the day, but if anything perhaps cause it to lift back north a bit. With the exact position of this front a bit uncertain for the afternoon hours, there is some modest uncertainty in various elements, including temperatures, wind direction/speeds and how far north a critical fire weather threat might exist. North of the boundary, winds will surely be more easterly, while south of the front (especially in our KS zones), a breezy southwesterly wind will prevail (gusts at least 25-35 MPH). We may be aiming too warm north of I-80 and perhaps not warm enough into KS, but for now high temps are aimed from mid-upper 70s north, to mid-upper 80s in KS. Precip-wise, while most of the day will surely be dry, we bring some small rain/thunderstorm chances into mainly our northern/western counties during the afternoon. - TUESDAY EVENING-OVERNIGHT: This forecaster's main concern is that we might have a "sneaky" threat for a few strong to perhaps even marginally-severe thunderstorms (despite not being "outlooked" by SPC on the initial Day 2 outlook). While the MAIN severe threat will surely focus to our east (eastern KS up into IA), especially the latest NAM suggests that at least 500-1000 J/kg of mainly elevated instability (CAPE) could materialize, with lift/forcing increasing through the night as the main upper trough arrives from the west...reaching our western CWA by sunrise Wednesday. To be fair, other models (including RAP/HRRR) are less generous with elevated CAPE (except maybe in our southeastern CWA), but simulated reflectivity from higher-res models certainly point to a decent chance for isolated/scattered convection (NOT a widespread soaker, unfortunately), with at least SOME strong to possibly marginally-severe storm threat. In other departments, at the surface the main low pressure system will pass through from west to east, swinging breezes around to more northerly- to-westerly especially by near/after sunrise Wednesday (our forecast speeds may not yet be high enough). Low temps are aimed similar to Monday night (mainly mid-upper 40s with low-mid 50s far east). -- NOTE: - NWS Hastings routinely defines CRITICAL fire weather as the overlap of BOTH 20-percent-or-lower RH and sustained winds/gusts of 20+ MPH/25+ MPH (for 3+ hour duration). - NWS Hastings routinely defines NEAR-CRITICAL fire weather as the overlap of BOTH 25-percent-or-lower RH and sustained winds/gusts 15+MPH/20+ MPH && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1140 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: TAFs are primarily focused on timing of wind shifts and gusts this afternoon and also early Tuesday. There is some indication that low ceilings or even fog could develop into GRI or perhaps even EAR between 10Z-13Z, but at this time it appears more likely to remain VFR. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 503 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 - THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING: A Red Flag Warning has been expanded to now include our entire forecast area (CWA), valid from 12-9 PM. Admittedly, at least parts of this Warning are a little marginal regarding wind speeds (versus criteria), as some areas will probably struggle to realize a 3+ hour period of gusts consistently 25+ MPH out of the west to west-southwest. That being said, at the very least, all areas should see near-critical gusts reach at least 20+ MPH for much of the afternoon-early evening, and especially far southeast counties could see gusts to 30 MPH for at least a few hours. Turning to relative humidity (RH), confidence is very high that all but perhaps the extreme northeast fringes of our CWA will see values bottom out as low as 10-20 percent (solidly meeting critical criteria), as afternoon high temperatures soar into the mid- upper 80s. As a result, and despite the marginal wind gusts expected in some places, it was decided to "err on the side of caution" and expand this Warning to include our entire forecast area...instead of "splitting hairs" and leaving out a handful of counties that might fall slightly short of consistent 25+ MPH gusts. No matter how strong afternoon winds end up being, they should drop off pretty quickly toward sunset, and admittedly the 9 PM "end time" to this Warning is probably a bit generous. - TUESDAY AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING: A Fire Weather Watch has been issued (also valid 12-9 PM), but at least for now, only for our 6 KS counties, as that is where confidence is highest in potentially meeting critical criteria for 3+ hours. The main reason that this Watch does not currently extend north of the NE/KS border is because a fairly sharp, generally west-east oriented surface front is expected to set up somewhere over far southern Nebraska during the afternoon, with higher RH and lighter (generally easterly) winds present north of this boundary. However, south of this boundary (including mainly our KS counties), stronger southwest winds will likely be sustained at least 15-25 MPH/gust at least 25-35 MPH. Due to another round of seasonably-warm afternoon temperatures reaching the mid-upper 80s, RH should easily fall to at least 15-20% near/especially south of the state line. Should later forecasts depict this front lifting farther north into southern Nebraska, a northward expansion of later Watches/possible Warnings may be necessary over the next 12-24 hours. However, for now felt comfortable confining the Watch to only our northern KS zones. - WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY: Will forego any detailed breakdown at this time range for now, but the bottom line is that each afternoon is currently forecast to feature at least near-critical conditions for at least small portions of our area, with a few afternoons forecast to breach outright-critical thresholds in at least limited areas. At least for now, the next day of GREATEST concern for potentially the most widespread critical fire weather potential is Thursday, as breezy south winds develop (gusts at least 25 MPH likely) in the presence of more seasonably-warm temperatures reaching the low- mid 80s...driving RH down into the 10-20% range across most of our CWA. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ039>041- 046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087. KS...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005>007- 017>019. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for KSZ005>007-017>019. && $$ UPDATE...Pfannkuch DISCUSSION...Stump AVIATION...Barjenbruch (OAX) FIRE WEATHER...Pfannkuch  968 FXUS64 KEPZ 131650 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1050 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1005 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 - Breezy to windy conditions again Tuesday, with at least some patchy blowing dust. Lighter winds for Wednesday. - Breezy to windy again Thursday into Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1005 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 The area will be under mid level southwest flow today as a cutoff low tracks across SoCal today. Breezy conditions continue the first few hours after sunset and then will begin to relax. Tuesday will feature another breezy day with southwest winds during the afternoon as the aforementioned trough will make it's way over the Four Corners and into CO. Wind speeds tomorrow look similar to what we'll see today, but just a little weaker. Blowing dust possible again tomorrow. Wednesday will feature the lightest winds of the work week. Wednesday through Friday looks dry. Breezy to windy conditions return Thursday and Friday along with the blowing dust threat. Very dry air and breezy winds will increase the fire weather threat as well. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 453 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 An approaching Pacific trough will increase afternoon winds, and bring enough mid-level moisture for clouds, and showers across the region today. This could have three different impacts for area terminals; winds, dust, and precipitation. Winds will be from the west and increase to the 20-30 kt range, That could mean some blowing dust, especially over eastern areas. However, the isolated to scattered shower activity is likely to be high-based and light, with downburst and outflow winds possible. This will meand periods of stronger winds, and blowing dust late afternoon into early evening. TEMPO groups at DMN and LRU to account for this. Confidence too low at ELP. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1005 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Elevated to near critical fire weather concerns Tuesday due to breezy southwest 20 ft winds at 10-20 mph. Near critical to critical min RHs across a good portion of the lowlands of SW New Mexico with values generally 12-20% (30-40% in the area mountains). Drier air pushes in Wednesday, crashing min RHs down to the single digits (7-10% in the lowlands, 15-20% in mountains). However, winds will be the lightest on Wednesday with speeds of 5-10 mph. Breezy conditions expected Thursday and Friday, combined with critical min RHs will allow for near critical to critical fire weather concerns. Min RHs will still be in the single digits across the lowlands (5-10%) and 10-15% in the area mountains on Thursday. Wind speeds will be 10-20 mph out of the southwest. The Gila region, Black Range, Sierra County, high terrain in the NM Bootheel and even portions of the Sacramento Mtns will have the best chance to see Red Flag conditions. By Friday, will still see critical min RHs across the lowlands with values of 8-11% and 15-20% in the mountains. 20 ft wind speeds will be around 10-20 mph again. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 60 81 52 78 / 10 10 0 0 Sierra Blanca 55 76 49 74 / 0 10 20 0 Las Cruces 52 77 43 74 / 10 10 0 0 Alamogordo 52 76 43 74 / 20 10 10 0 Cloudcroft 38 53 32 51 / 20 10 10 0 Truth or Consequences 52 74 45 74 / 10 0 0 0 Silver City 42 64 36 66 / 40 0 0 0 Deming 50 77 41 76 / 20 10 0 0 Lordsburg 46 72 38 73 / 30 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 60 79 52 77 / 10 10 10 0 Dell City 52 80 47 77 / 0 10 0 0 Fort Hancock 60 84 53 81 / 0 10 10 0 Loma Linda 55 73 48 71 / 10 10 10 0 Fabens 59 82 51 79 / 0 10 10 0 Santa Teresa 56 79 46 76 / 10 10 10 0 White Sands HQ 58 78 50 76 / 10 10 10 0 Jornada Range 50 77 40 75 / 10 10 0 0 Hatch 52 78 40 77 / 10 0 0 0 Columbus 55 80 46 77 / 10 10 0 0 Orogrande 51 77 45 74 / 10 10 10 0 Mayhill 45 66 37 64 / 10 10 10 0 Mescalero 42 64 34 62 / 20 10 10 0 Timberon 41 62 36 60 / 10 10 10 0 Winston 39 65 30 68 / 30 0 0 0 Hillsboro 49 71 40 73 / 20 0 0 0 Spaceport 47 74 38 75 / 10 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 40 64 31 67 / 50 0 0 0 Hurley 42 69 35 70 / 40 0 0 0 Cliff 44 70 34 73 / 40 0 0 0 Mule Creek 40 65 34 70 / 50 0 0 0 Faywood 45 69 38 69 / 30 0 0 0 Animas 49 75 40 75 / 20 0 0 0 Hachita 49 75 40 75 / 20 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 50 76 40 75 / 10 0 0 0 Cloverdale 47 70 40 70 / 10 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...37-Slusher  406 FXUS66 KHNX 131653 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 953 AM PDT Mon Apr 13 2026 && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Precipitation tapering off across the area today, though a chance for thunderstorms remains possible, particularly in the Sierra Nevada, Coastal Range, and foothills. 2. A gradual warming and drying trend expected this week. 3. Another system brings stronger winds and a risk for thunderstorms Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... The upper low that brought active weather this weekend is beginning to exit the area, bringing quieter weather with it for the next few days, though a lingering risk of thunderstorms remains across the area today, particularly in the Sierra Nevada, Coastal Range, and foothills. Probability of thunder is 20-30% in the Sierra Nevada and 10-15% across the rest of the area. Conditions remain windy along the Mojave Desert Slopes, with a 30-40% chance of gusts exceeding 55 mph at Walker pass, increasing to 60-70% near Jawbone. Looking ahead, Tuesday and Wednesday should be mostly quiet as we enter a quasi-zonal pattern with mild ridging, bringing pleasant conditions, with high temperatures in the low- to mid-70s across the Valley. This may cause a minor decrease in air quality Wednesday and Thursday, which may affect sensitive groups. Models are in good agreement that a shortwave trough moving down the west coast of Canada will begin to turn east across the US on Thursday. There is not yet good agreement on how deep the trough will be and how far south it will dig. Regardless, the system is likely to bring strong winds to most of the region, with a 5-10% chance of lightning in the Sierra Nevadas at the moment. This trough will clear the region quickly, allowing mild ridging and warming temperatures to build back into the weekend before another system approaches the area early next week. This will create a minor heat risk over the weekend. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions expected across the area, with local MVFR and IFR in and near thunderstorms. Wind gusts approaching 40 kts in the Mojave Desert Slopes. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ public...AC aviation....AC weather.gov/hanford  893 FXUS63 KUNR 131656 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 1056 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... -Mild through Thursday -Dry most places outside of NW SD today through Wed -Critical fire weather conditions, mainly along and south of I90 today, and again possibly Wednesday and especially Thursday -Much colder and unsettled for the end of the week with rain and snow possible by Friday for parts of the area && .DISCUSSION...(This Afternoon Through Sunday) Issued at 1055 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Central Rockies upper trough will continue to shift east with another stronger trough dropping into the Pac NW. This will support warm and mainly dry weather through most of Thur. Dry SW flow is ongoing across the southern half of the FA. Rockies trough will semi-split with the northern portion supporting a few showers and isolated TS across the far NW this afternoon/evening. However, the rest of the FA will remain dry. Compact jetlet, associated enhanced bulk shear and marginal CAPE may support an isolated strong storm on the southern flank of expected convection today, with small hail and gusty winds. Cool front starts to progress east into the area tonight. The southern portion of the trough will shift east Tues, barely skirting the southeast third of the FA, with maybe a shower or two in southwest to scentral SD. Enough instability may be present over the BH to also support a few showers there with diurnal heating. Shower chances will linger into Wed across scentral SD, as the trough moves fairly slow across the Central Plains. Mild weather will continue through Thur as WAA ensues ahead of the next upper trough Wed, which will advect SE in westerly flow out of the Pac NW. This system will force a strong cold front into the region Thur, with strong CAA and wind expected. However, this trough will split, with limited precip amounts outside of perhaps northeast WY and maybe far SW SD, effectively leaving much of western SD with little to no precip. After a couple days below normal, things quickly then warm back up next week as the next trough drops into the western CONUS and WAA spreads to its east. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Tuesday Morning) Issued At 523 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Mainly VFR conditions are expected from the Black Hills west, and across southern SD for much of the TAF period. Some fog and low ceilings (IFR to LIFR) have advected into northwestern SD, and will persist through the morning hours. This afternoon, thunderstorms will be possible across northeast WY into northwest SD, moving east of the area by 02Z. Hail and strong winds are possible with the heaviest precipitation. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued At 1055 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Gusty southwest winds, extremely dry air, and lack of appreciable green up will support critical fire weather conditions this afternoon mainly along and south of I90. A red flag warning remains in effect into this evening. The most critical areas will be in SW SD where RH will drop to 10 percent with winds gusting to around 45 mph in the afternoon. A cool front will drop into the area tonight with winds diminishing and RH's recovering. Mild on Tue and Wed as an upper level trough skirts south of the area. However, low RH and breezy winds may support critical fire weather conditions once again on Wed and especially Thur in the same locations. A strong cold front will move into the region Thur, with chances for rain and snow Friday, mainly across northeast WY. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening for SDZ320>322-324>326-329-331>335. WY...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for WYZ315-317. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC AVIATION...15 FIRE WEATHER...JC  134 FXUS63 KBIS 131656 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1156 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Medium to high chances for showers today through tonight. - A few thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into tonight, with an isolated strong to marginally severe storm possible far southwest and south central. - Mainly dry and warmer Tuesday and Wednesday. - Wide range in temperatures from northwest to southeast Thursday as a cold front pushes into the State. - Significant cool down for the end of this week, with medium chances for both rain and snow. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1129 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Midday update mainly for pops. An east to west area of showers with a few lightning strikes lifting north along the I-94 corridor, with another area of showers in the far north. Short term models are having a hard time picking up on this so mainly a hand drawn area of pops through the early afternoon. Cams are a little more consistent later this afternoon through tonight with the main wave lifting through bringing another round of showers and maybe a few thunderstorms. An isolated strong to possibly severe storm can not be completely ruled out late this afternoon through this evening in the far south, probabilities look to be quite low. SPC has limited the Marginal Severe threat to only the far southern tier counties with their update late this morning. UPDATE Issued at 857 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 For the morning update we lowered high temperatures, mainly along and south of I-94. Widespread stratus looks like it will remain through the day (also bumped up sky cover) across most if not all of western and central ND. We also adjusted pops just a little. Will continue with mainly chance pops this morning lifting north and east. There have been some light rain showers with the reflectivities lifting north along the I-94 corridor. There is some general upper level ridging, especially this morning and the 12Z Bismarck sounding showed quite a bit of dry air remaining, so qpf with any shower activity this morning is expected to be minimal. Then the south dries out a bit this afternoon, with higher pops lingering in the north. Better chances with the main wave lifting through the area later today and tonight. We also extended the mention of fog through the morning. Updated text products will be transmitted shortly. UPDATE Issued at 652 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A line of showers continues to move from southwest to northeast through across North Dakota at the time of this mid morning update. These showers have been a little less pervasive then suggested by the CAMs, with the 12Z sounding here at the office suggesting a layer of relatively drier air helping to limit how much precipitation is reaching the ground. Short term deterministic models continue to advocate these layer saturating through the mid morning, especially as secondary wave already promoting the development of showers in Montana moves into the west. For the showers that we do have this morning, areas of fog have been observed to develop as they move off to the northeast, with visibilities across portions of the far southwest dropping as low as 1/4 SM at times. Jumping around ND DOT cameras across this are suggest this denser fog is somewhat limited in areal extent, and the expectation is that visibilities should improve through the mid morning as surface winds begin to pick up. Considering the morning commute, we have opted to issue a SPS across much of the southwest due to the potential for rapidly changing visibility. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Southwesterly flow is found across the northern Plains this morning as a Pacific trough over the western CONUS is progged to split and be absorbed into the northern stream through the day today. With this moving across the region as a shortwave perturbation, medium to high chances (40 to 70 percent) for precpitation are expected across much of the forecast area this morning through late tonight. While mainly falling as rain, cooling temperatures tonight into Tuesday could allow for a little snow to mix in with the rain across portions of north central North Dakota, though no snow accumulation is expected. With how pervasive this precpitation will be through this period, much of the forecast area has medium chances (40 to 60 percent) to exceed 0.25" of QPF through Tuesday morning, with a low chance (10 to 30 percent) to exceed 0.50". It's starting to get to the point of the year where we must consider the convective environment as well. With seasonable warm weather lingering across the south today, with highs from the mid 40s north up to the upper 50s and lower 60s south, short term deterministic guidance continues to advertise modest instability becoming available by the mid to late afternoon across portions of the southwest and south central, with model MUCAPE values approaching 500 J/KG. That being said, an interrogation of BUFKIT model soundings during this periods reveals a fairly robust cap across much of the south through the afternoon, so we may struggle to see much more than elevated thunder during this period. That being said, there is a low probability scenario where the early erosion of this cap could allow for a stronger storm to develop, considering the ample of amount of BULK shear advertised by the CAMs around this time (approx 35 to 40 knots). If this scenario does pan out, small hail and an isolated, marginally severe wind gusts up to 60 MPH would be possible. SPC as placed southwestern and south central North Dakota into a level 1 of 5 risk for isolated severe thunderstorms for this afternoon into this evening. Mainly dry conditions are then expected Tuesday and Wednesday as near zonal to slightly southwesterly flow is established above the forecast area. A transient shortwave is progged to pass through the region Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday, promoting another round of light rainfall, though there is fairly strong agreement between ensemble members on this remaining to the south of North Dakota at this time. With the near zonal flow persisting through the mid week, warming highs from the 50s and 60s on Tuesday to the 60s and 70s on Wednesday are expected. A transition back to southwesterly flow is then anticipated late Wednesday into Thursday as a strong upper level low makes landfall in the Pacific Northwest. Chances for precpitation (40 to 60 percent) increase through the day Thursday as a surface low complex moves out of the southern Canadian Prairies and approaches western and central North Dakota. While initially falling as rain through the day Thursday, with lingering highs broadly in the lower 50s northwest to mid 70s southeast, a sharp transition to all snow is expected to occur Thursday night into Friday as a cold front associated with this drops across the area. With this, at least light accumulations of snow can be expected across much of the forecast area, with the NBM advertising a light dusting across the south up to an inch or two along the International Border. Cluster analysis reveals this to the majority solution, with around 55 percent of members favoring a northerly track to the low complex. A minority cluster also exists (45 percent of ensemble members), which has a slightly stronger low complex dipping further to the south than what is advertised by the NBM, allowing for a quicker transition to all snow across the south overnight into Friday. With this scenario, accumulations up to an inch would be possible as far south as Interstate 94. In either scenario, breezy to windy conditions can be expected Thursday and Friday as and pressure gradient sharpens, and CAA increases along and behind the cold front. That being said, the upper end of these winds may be only near to marginally wind advisory criteria due to the timing of the frontal passage and the lack of a strong 850-700mb jet during this period. This thinking seems to fall in line with the lack of any anomalous wind signal in the most recent ECMWF EFI, though we will need to continue monitoring this period moving forward. After the much cooler weather on Friday, there is decent agreement in the ensemble on warming temperatures by the end of the weekend into early next week as longwave ridging builds in behind the trough, though there is some modest disagreement on the timing of this transition back toward warmer weather. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1129 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Expect widespread IFR to LIFR ceilings across western and central ND through tonight. There will be times this afternoon and evening when some MVFR ceilings may be found, but overall, expect low stratus to remain through much of the night. Do expect some improvement in ceiling from west to east Tuesday morning. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible central and south, then mostly in the south tonight. Any thunderstorms will have the capability of producing gusty and erratic winds with low vsbys in heavy downpours. Expect an easterly surface flow today and tonight 5 to 15 Kts, turning south to southwest 5 to 15 Kts on Tuesday. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...TWH DISCUSSION...Adam AVIATION...TWH  869 FXUS64 KOUN 131659 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1158 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 - This week will continue to feature an active pattern with chances for showers and storms most days, some strong to severe. - Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will return several days this week, especially across portions of northwestern and far western Oklahoma. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Monday) Issued at 206 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Another day, another chance for severe storms today. Increased southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the trough approaching southern Nevada will give way to height falls and cooling aloft. The dryline will mix east through the afternoon with some uncertainty in how far east the boundary mixes. Most likely scenario is the dryline sets up in a location similar to yesterday, but there is a potential the dryline mixes farther east near Seymour and northeast along the I-44 corridor. With the upper trough still in the western CONUS, the vast majority for lift to initiate storms will come from the dryline convergence. However, similar to yesterday, there is not a ton of circulation along the dryline with more of a veered surface winds through the day. Winds are not expected to back until the evening hours so the strongest convergence may not be present until surface heating is loss. If winds can back earlier in the afternoon hours with peak heating, any isolated storm that develops will have the likelihood to quickly become strong to severe. All hazards would be in play for any isolated storm that develops this afternoon with a corridor of decent instability east of the dryline. MLCAPE values in excess of 2000+ J/kg and effective shear of 40 to 50 knots will give way to the potential for very large hail and damaging wind gusts. Low-level shear is not expected to increase much until closer to sunset as the low-level jet ramps up an winds back, but the threat for a tornado is non-zero with any isolated storm that develops along the dryline earlier in the afternoon. Most CAMs do not initiate any storms this afternoon for the reasons mentioned above and the storm potential is once again conditional on the mesoscale environmental details that will be closely monitored through the day today. Today will feature dual hazards with fire weather making a return west of the dryline, specifically across portions of northwest and far western Oklahoma. The Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning and expanded a few counties southward for this afternoon and early evening. The low-level thermal ridge will warm today across West Texas and into western Oklahoma with highs in the 80s to lower 90s. RH values will generally be around 10 to 20 percent behind the dryline, but there is a chance for single digit values in the area of the Red Flag Warning this afternoon. Introducing breezy south southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph will give way to near critical to critical fire weather conditions. Not only will conditions be dry and breezy but with a lack of substantial rainfall across most of the previously mentioned area of concern, fuels were only granted a sip of water and needed more to provide any sort of changeover to a green-up. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday night through Wednesday night) Issued at 206 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Tuesday becomes another rinse and repeat day featuring the dual hazards of fire weather in the west and severe weather in the east. Once again, the sloshing dryline will mix east with some uncertainty in exact placement. The biggest difference for Tuesday compared to today will be the upper trough axis approaching the Rockies with even better height falls and cooling aloft. Isolated storms that fire along the dryline will have the potential for large hail, damaging winds and a tornado or two. The storms will grow upscale as they push eastward through the evening and the primary hazards will shift to damaging winds and tornadoes as the low-level jet increases. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for northwest and far western Oklahoma for near critical to critical fire weather conditions through the afternoon and early evening hours. RH values drop as low as 15 to 20 percent west of the dryline and even as low as 10 percent for areas closer to the 100th meridian. Strong lee cyclogenesis with the approaching trough will give way to breezy south southwest winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. Fuels will get no relief today, so continued warmth and drying will only continue to keep fuels susceptible to wildfires. Strong to severe storms may continue overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. The upper trough will finally pass over the forecast area Wednesday afternoon with additional afternoon storm chances along the dryline. However, morning convection could limit the life cycle of storms as they push eastward off the dryline. However, any isolated storm off the dryline will have the potential for all hazards. Exact details for Wednesday are highly contingent on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Elevated fire weather conditions may return as well to portions of northwest and western Oklahoma. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 206 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Brief height rises in the wake of the shortwave Thursday may provide a break from storms. However, with another trough digging into the western CONUS, southwesterly flow will quickly return Thursday night and an increased sub-tropical jet may bring late night showers and storms. As the next shortwave ejects eastward towards the Plains, showers and storms will return again Friday into Saturday morning. A cold frontal passage by Saturday will bring an end to shower and storm chances for next weekend as it scours the moisture and the flow aloft becomes more zonal. Timing of the next wave may change and trends in timing will continue to be monitored. Fire weather conditions may persist through the end of the week and into the weekend, especially where fuels continue to remain driest in western Oklahoma and into western north Texas.&& .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1104 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026 MVFR conditions are currently observed spreading north/west this evening. These conditions are anticipated to lift by mid-morning Monday. LLWS is a concern late tonight and again tomorrow night. Will be monitoring the marginal risk of severe storms that are possible tomorrow afternoon and evening. Thus far, there is significant uncertainty on storm development and have left out of TAFs for now. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1158 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 MVFR ceilings continue to lift and retreat to this east this afternoon, and are expected to build back in toward I-44 again tonight. An area of low level shear will develop overnight into the early morning hours, especially over north central Oklahoma. Winds will remain southerly and gusty through most of the TAF period. Day && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 67 83 63 78 / 20 60 60 60 Hobart OK 65 88 61 84 / 20 50 60 40 Wichita Falls TX 68 85 64 83 / 20 60 80 50 Gage OK 59 89 55 82 / 10 20 30 10 Ponca City OK 67 86 63 79 / 20 40 60 50 Durant OK 67 81 65 78 / 20 40 60 70 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004-005-009- 010-014-021. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for OKZ004-005-009-010-014-021. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...23 SHORT TERM...23 LONG TERM....23 AVIATION...14  917 FXUS64 KTSA 131659 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1159 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1103 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 - Warm, humid, and breezy southerly flow continues for much of the week. Most days will have at least a low chance of precipitation. - A window for higher-end severe weather potential exists Tuesday into Wednesday. - Another chance of showers and thunderstorms is expected Friday to Saturday before cooler air arrives. && .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight ) Issued at 1103 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Deep south to southwest flow will continue across the area today, leading to persistent warm and moist air advection. Lower level clouds will partly clear out by this afternoon with very warm temperatures developing, mainly in the low to mid 80s. Surface winds will gust to 25-35 mph through sundown. Although thermodynamics look favorable, given limiting forcing, we are not expecting any storms to develop today for most areas. But if a storm did pop off (10-20% chance), it could become severe. Mild and breezy conditions will remain overnight, with low temperatures well above normal, generally in the upper 60s to near 70. Low clouds may redevelop, but no rain is expected. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Monday) Issued at 1103 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 An upper level low will approach the area from the west Tuesday into Wednesday. This will put the area under the right entrance region of an upper level jet, helping to increase ascent. This will line up with robust dry line forcing across central Oklahoma and lower level moisture near the 99th percentile for this time of year. Most CAMs are showing storms blowing up along the dry line Tuesday afternoon, moving into the area during the evening and overnight hours. Forecast soundings show robust low level instability, good wind shear, and curving low level hodographs. All of these are consistent with the potential for higher end severe convection. This would include large hail, damaging wind, and isolated tornadoes. Scattered storms will likely continue into Wednesday as a weak boundary approaches the area. Additional strong or severe storms will be possible into Wednesday evening with the potential for all severe hazards. Storm potential will wrap up into Thursday morning as the upper level forcing moves east. Southerly flow reinvigorates Thursday and Friday with very warm and humid conditions remaining in place. Highs will reach the mid to upper 80s. By later Friday the next upper level trough will approach the area, with the upper level jet aligning favorably to enhance forced ascent. Showers and storms will line up along the cold front as it passes through the region. Good instability will pair with sufficient wind shear for at least some potential for severe weather. Behind the front, temperatures will be cooler for a few days with highs in the 60s to low 70s and lows in the 40s to upper 30s. Temperatures will warm back up next week with upper level ridging returning to the area. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1159 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 MVFR cigs will lift and scatter out over the next few hours across the area with VFR conditions prevailing through the rest of the afternoon into the evening. South to southwest winds remain gusty through the whole TAF period with higher gusts during the afternoon hours today around 30 knots. MVFR cigs move back in tonight, especially across SE OK and NW AR sites, while NE OK sites may be more on the periphery through tomorrow morning. Precipitation chances remain too low to mention, but there is still an outside chance of a thunderstorm across NE OK sites late this afternoon or evening in the 00-04Z timeframe. Bowlan && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 71 84 66 77 / 10 30 70 80 FSM 69 84 67 81 / 20 10 50 70 MLC 69 82 66 77 / 20 20 60 80 BVO 67 86 64 79 / 10 40 60 80 FYV 66 82 64 77 / 10 10 50 80 BYV 68 82 66 75 / 10 20 50 70 MKO 69 81 64 75 / 10 20 70 80 MIO 70 82 65 74 / 10 30 70 80 F10 69 81 64 75 / 20 30 70 90 HHW 66 80 65 78 / 20 10 40 60 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...06 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...04