758 FXUS63 KPAH 131700 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1200 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Record or near record warm temperatures are forecast Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday...with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s pretty much all week. - Best rain chances come Wednesday night-Thursday and again next weekend. Storm total average rainfall amounts with each round aggregate in the 0.25-0.75" range. - A marked cooldown closer to seasonal averages with high temps in the 60s and low temps in the 40s will settle in for next Sunday-Monday, after the storm system completes its passage this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1200 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 There are two primary targets of opportunity with our high pressure ridge dominated forecast. The first is Wednesday night-Thursday, when ripples in the steering flow pass overhead and introduce a chance of showers/storms. Then again the coming weekend, as the main synoptic body makes passage. These will offer best storm and heavier rain chances, though at this writing, severe storms are not in the outlook. Average storm total qpf for Wednesday night-Thurdsay is in the 0.25-0.75" range for most of our CWA. The main near term focus is on record or near record high temperatures the next two days, with our highs forecast in the mid 80s. Records are: TuesdayWednesday PAH 87 (2006)88 (1977) EVV 86 (2010)86 (2024) CGI 86 (1992)87 (1992) POF 89 (1925)88 (1936) MDH 85 (2010)87 (2024) Each day will feature warm/breezy south to southwest winds that assist in the warm run. After a transitional Thursday, we're right back to record warmth Friday, which may offer our earliest 90F max temp on record, if we can over-achieve just a little on our forecast mid-upper 80s highs. Another 0.25-0.75" QPF forecast is in store for the weekend storm system passage as well, and after its passage, much cooler and seasonal air will arrive to begin the new week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1200 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 SCT-BKN high end MVFR/low end VFR bases remain possible the entire forecast, with some mid-high level bases as well. South winds prevail in a strictly warm sector environ., with peak daytime gusts in the mid-upr 20s kts. Rain chances are scant enough to preclude their mention at the terminals. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$  889 FXCA62 TJSJ 131704 AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 104 PM AST Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1241 PM AST Mon Apr 13 2026 * Flash flooding likely across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Rapid river rises, urban flooding, and inundated roads are expected, especially over western, interior, and eastern PR and all USVI. * Landslides and significant runoff hazards in Puerto Rico. Saturated soils in mountainous areas increase the risk of landslides, while downstream flooding may impact coastal areas. * Repeated heavy rain and thunderstorms will prolong wet and unstable weather conditions. * Moderate rip current risk and hazardous marine conditions. Beachgoers should exercise caution, and small craft operators are urged to navigate carefully due to rough seas and unsettled weather. && .Short Term(This evening through Wednesday)... Issued at 1241 PM AST Mon Apr 13 2026 As expected, the upper-level trough began to deepen early this morning while sinking southward toward the CWA. During the early morning hours, very active weather was detected over the Atlantic waters by satellite data and Doppler radar, accompanied by heavy showers and thunderstorm activity. The Geostationary Lightning Mapper indicated frequent lightning associated with this activity over the Atlantic waters. Some of this activity moved over northeastern Puerto Rico, prompting a Flood Advisory for Ceiba, Humacao, and Fajardo. For the remainder of the morning, the active area of showers and thunderstorms over the Atlantic waters moved mainly over Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, prompting the issuance of Flood Advisories and Flash Flood Warnings for St. Thomas and St. John. Radar estimates and rain gauges indicate rainfall accumulations of 2 to 3 inches, with locally higher amounts. For this afternoon and evening, active weather is also expected to develop over interior Puerto Rico and gradually move southward. Hi-Res models indicate that strong, organized convection will develop into a wide area in a southwest-to-northeast oriented line, moving over the Caribbean waters and impacting mostly Vieques, Culebra, and the USVI, particularly St. Croix. For the remainder of the short-term period, model guidance suggests the upper-level trough will continue to deepen and strengthen into a cut-off low, reflected at the surface as a low-pressure system just north of Puerto Rico. Although the most active part of the surface low will be located north of Puerto Rico, all variables indicative of a strong trough will be present, such as below-normal 250 mb height fields, cooler-than-normal 500 mb temperatures, steeper low-to-mid-level lapse rates, and well above normal moisture. Therefore, expect periods of heavy showers and thunderstorm activity across the CWA. With this setup, expect excessive runoff to result in an elevated to significant flooding risk, including urban and small stream flooding, flash flooding, rapid river rises, and landslides in areas of steep terrain. Heavy rain from previous days has resulted in saturated soils and elevated stream flows, particularly over the interior and eastern third of Puerto Rico. This will further exacerbate the flooding risk across these areas. Additionally, near-severe thunderstorms could produce frequent lightning and gusty winds. Model guidance suggests that the highest rainfall accumulations are expected over the interior, northern, and eastern portions of Puerto Rico, as well as Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. However, even in areas that might not receive large quantities of rainfall, such as southwestern Puerto Rico, river flooding could still occur as excessive runoff from higher elevations drains downstream into coastal areas near rivers. Please stay tuned for further updates as this event unfolds. && .Long Term(Thursday through next Sunday)... Issued at 1241 PM AST Mon Apr 13 2026 No major changes were made to the long-term forecast, as the wet and unsettled weather pattern is likely to persist into the weekend, gradually improving by the first part of the next workweek. A surface high pressure is expected to build over the Western extending into the Central Atlantic, promoting SE-E winds through Sunday. As a surface trough over the Hispaniola weakens, the pressure gradient will likely increase, with winds gradually strengthening throughout the period, resulting in breezy to windy conditions across the coastal areas of the islands. In the mid to upper levels, the deep-layered trough may linger and deepen into the tropics, with our CWA under the favorable side for convection. From the latest model guidance, moisture content will remain higher for this time of the year, with PWAT values likely between 1.8 and 2.0 inches low chance of higher values. Additionally, the low to mid- level moisture content should remain higher than normal, with model soundings suggesting skinny profiles, particularly on Friday and Saturday. In terms of convection, the influence of the trough will maintain slightly cooler than normal mid-level temperatures (500 mb temperatures around -8 degrees Celsius), a jet streak with 250 mb winds between 60 and 80 knots, and divergence aloft, triggering upper-level dynamics. Under these conditions, forced vertical motion will result in cloud growth and ventilation, favorable for deep convection. Additionally, the Galvez-Davison Index (GDI) continues to suggest the potential for isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the CWA, particularly in the afternoons over interior into north/northwestern Puerto Rico and in the night across regional waters, eastern Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. As mentioned in the previous discussion, the weather event in the short- term forecast may result in saturated soils and higher-than-normal river levels. A factor that may slightly inhibit deeper convection is the winds, which may lead to more progressive showers instead of stationary ones. Nevertheless, with the expected weather forecast through Sunday, showers and thunderstorms over the CWA will increase the flooding and lightning potential. Rainfall accumulations will likely result in urban and small stream flooding, including localized flash floods, including landslides, and rapid river rises. Additionally, thunderstorms may result in gusty winds, reduced visibility, and lightning. Residents and visitors of the islands are encouraged to keep monitoring conditions and the next issuance of the long-term forecast. By Monday, as another surface high pressure builds over the western Atlantic and wind shifts from the NE, the weather pattern should gradually improve with a drier air mass filtering into the region. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 PM AST Mon Apr 13 2026 Unstable weather conds will continue to produce SHRA/TSRA across all terminals with brief MVFR/IFR possible. Recent PIREPs rpt LGT/MOD TURB, especially nr TJSJ/TIST/TISX. TURB may persist through the night at terminal sites and En Route as unsettled weather continues, particularly near areas of strong TS. BKN/OVC cigs FL020–FL070 expected at times. Winds will turn light and vrb aft 13/22Z, shifting more E/ENE at around 10-15 kt with higher gusts and sea breeze aft 14/13z. && .MARINE... Issued at 1241 PM AST Mon Apr 13 2026 A broad surface high pressure across the central Atlantic and a front over the western Atlantic will promote light to moderate trades through the rest of the weekend. Pulses of northerly swell will continue to move through the Atlantic waters and passages, where small craft should continue to exercise caution for the next several days. For today through Wednesday, the combination of the front and associated pre-frontal trough will increase showers and thunderstorms across the local waters, creating locally hazardous marine conditions. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 1241 PM AST Mon Apr 13 2026 A moderate risk of rip currents is in place for most north- and east-facing beaches of Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra, as well as the U.S. Virgin Islands, meaning rip currents are still possible and can be life-threatening. A low risk will likely persist across western Puerto Rico, from Anasco and Mayaguez southward and east along the Caribbean coast through southeastern Puerto Rico, including Patillas, Maunabo, and Yabucoa. Increasing winds early to midweek could lead to a return of more hazardous marine and coastal conditions. Exercise caution at the beach, especially along exposed coasts. Sharing is saving. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1241 PM AST Mon Apr 13 2026 As a mid-to upper-level trough approaches from the northwest, the likelihood of flooding is expected until at least midweek. An elevated to significant flooding risk is forecast through this period. The heaviest activity is anticipated for this evening and Tuesday afternoon. Although a level of uncertainty is still present, the days with the highest potential for flooding are today and Tuesday. However, above normal moisture will persist through late in the week. The likelihood of urban and small stream flooding, isolated flash flooding, landslides and rapid river rises continues to increase. Residents and visitors are urged to remain alert to changing weather conditions and to avoid flooded roadways. A Flood Watch (FFASJU) and an Hydrologic Outlook (ESFSJU) are currently in effect to highlight this flooding potential. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for PRZ001>013. VI...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for VIZ001-002. AM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CVB LONG TERM...MNG MARINE/BEACH FORECAST...MMC HYDROLOGY...ALL  139 FXUS61 KBGM 131707 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 107 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Little change from previous forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Active and warm weather pattern for the coming week as southwest flow steers moisture and shortwaves into our area, bringing rain and thunderstorm chances for much of the week. 2) Threat for severe thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday, with isolated hail and strong wind gusts possible with stronger storms. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A strong ridge is developing across the SE US with NY and PA being on the northern fringe of the high pressure. With the center of the high pressure along and just off the SE US coast, moist flow up into our region out of the Gulf will keep us warm. Being on the north side of the ridge also means that we will be in an active "ring of fire" pattern with frequent 500 mb shortwaves passing through, leading to chances of showers and thunderstorms for portions of the region every day. With a long wave trough setting up on the west coast, this pattern will likely persist with into next weekend, when there is some hints at a more amplified trough tries to dig in and bring in cooler weather once again. With forecast lows at all 3 of our climate sites in the low to mid 60s, record warm lows are possible. Given the SW flow and open Gulf, precipitable water values will be well above average for this time of the year. NAEFS and EPS tables for our CWA are indicating that the pwat anomaly may be 2 to 3 standard deviations above mid April climatology, with model means between 1.25 and 1.5 inches. Ensembles have backed off somewhat of higher amounts of QPF but looking at probabilities of 2.5 inches of rain over the next 7 days, the northern Finger Lakes and along the NY Thruway corridor still has a 30% to 50% chance. Looking at odds of an inch or more of rain, the Southern Tier and northward have high probabilities(>70%) though the Wyoming Valley in NEPA is a low prob (<40%) bullseye so they may stay drier. KEY MESSAGE 2... With this early season heat and humidity, there is increasing confidence in severe weather this week. Right now Tuesday and Wednesday have the best chances. Tuesday, forecast soundings have 700 to 500 mb lapse rates around 7 to 8 C/km which would support vigorous updrafts in any thunderstorm that develops. CAPE values in the afternoon is over 1000 J/kg in many of the deterministic models but if you look at the whole mixed layer, it is closer to 250 to 500 J/kg. Shear of 35 to 45 knots will still be supportive of strong storms especially given the mid level lapse rates. Thee limiting factor will be the depth of the storms as the lapse rates above 500 mb are not as steep so the equilibrium level is relatively low. There could be some larger hail in storms that do develop Tuesday as there is strong winds near the EL and the steep mid level lapse rates into the hail growth zone. Timing of the 500 mb shortwave is still tough to pin down but an afternoon passage would help all the parameters line up. Wednesday is also looking better with higher afternoon dew points helping bump up the CAPE values in models. Deterministic models are showing closer to 1500 J/kg with a few CAMs that go out far enough, as high as 2000 J/kg. MLCAPE is also higher, over 500 mb with shear sufficient, likely in the 40 to 50 knot range. Mid level lapse rates are not as impressive so winds will be the primary threat if storms can get going. There is uncertainty with a trigger for storms as the shortwave passage in models currently are a result of an MCS that develops Tuesday in the plains which are always tough to pin down days in advance. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions this afternoon will slowly drop to MVFR or fuel alternate required after 00Z this evening with persistent restrictions through 12-14Z Tuesday. Conditions will improve to VFR through the late morning hours. Light rain showers are expected to move out of the area this afternoon as a pocket of drier air advances in from the west. The next round of rain is expected to arrive in a scattered nature after 15Z Tue. Winds today will become westerly and breezy with peak gusts of 25 to 30 kts. Winds diminish this evening and then increase again after 16Z Tue out of the south/southwest. Outlook: Tuesday afternoon through Thursday...Restrictions possible from showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Friday...Mainly VFR; low chance for lingering showers and restrictions. Saturday...Additional restrictions look to arrive along with showers and storms late in the day Saturday. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AJG/JTC AVIATION...BJT/KL  716 FXUS64 KOHX 131707 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1207 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1150 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 - Low to medium (<50%) rain chances through the afternoon, but amounts are expected to be light. Medium to high rain chances forecast again on Thursday (30-70%). - Continued unseasonal warmth through the upcoming week. Record highs are possible Tuesday and Wednesday. - Medium rain/storm chances this weekend along a cold front. No severe weather is expected at this time. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Tuesday) Issued at 1150 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A weak disturbance is passing through the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys currently and this is just enough for clouds and light rain across the Mid State. Amounts are very light, but this is certainly moderating temperatures. Rain activity will fade off mid to late afternoon with arrival of drier mid-level air. Tuesday will be another very warm day with ridging taking back over in the wake of the exiting shortwave. Ample sunshine and dry air will be in place with highs well into the 80s. We could approach records, in fact. The main concern tomorrow is continued fire weather concerns due to dryness, low RHs, and afternoon gusts 20-25 mph. Outdoor burning is highly discouraged. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday Night through next Monday) Issued at 1150 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Wednesday looks to be the warmest day of the forecast period with highs once again well into the 80s. The record of 87 degrees in BNA is in certain jeopardy. Thankfully we'll have another shot at rain and clouds on Thursday to help moderate temperatures. This disturbance appears to be more robust than the one moving through the area today which will provide better lift and overall moisture availability. PoPs and QPF have both increased, but this will also be another relatively light rainfall event that will no make significant drought improvements. And with the continued ups and downs, Friday into Saturday should be another brief period of warm, dry weather with synoptic ridging still in place across the Southeast. However, medium-range guidance is still consistent with a fairly potent upper-low and low pressure system moving through the Great Lakes Saturday night. A cold front is forecast to advance across Middle Tennesse bringing at least medium chances for rain and storms. I expect PoPs will continue to increase with this system. With the passage of the cold front, Sunday into early next week looks cooler as this trough/front passage looks to defeat the stubborn ridge in the region. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 640 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 VFR conditions are forecast to prevail across Middle Tennessee airports this morning despite BKN to OVC skies. Current ceilings are above 070 with light S winds. SHRA will be the main impact this morning for BNA, MQY, and CKV. Some vis reduction is possible for any direct rainfall on terminal, but have MVFR vis in the TAFs for now and this is a TEMPO for BNA and MQY. SW winds at 8-12 kts with higher gusts are forecast mid morning through afternoon. Expecting a decrease in clouds this afternoon with calming winds during the evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 82 65 87 64 / 50 10 10 0 Clarksville 82 67 87 66 / 40 10 10 0 Crossville 78 60 82 58 / 20 0 10 0 Columbia 82 64 87 61 / 40 10 0 0 Cookeville 78 62 82 61 / 30 0 10 0 Jamestown 78 60 82 59 / 30 10 10 0 Lawrenceburg 80 63 84 60 / 30 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 82 64 87 62 / 40 10 10 0 Waverly 82 67 87 66 / 50 10 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sizemore LONG TERM....Sizemore AVIATION.....Sizemore  030 FXUS65 KTFX 131708 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1108 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Aviation Section Updated. .KEY MESSAGES... - A few showers and isolated thunderstorms today. - Seasonable temperatures expected for the first half of the work week. - A spring storm expected to arrive late on Wed, with rain changing to snow at all elevations by Thursday, along with much cooler temperatures. - Turning drier and mild over the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... /Issued 529 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026/ - Meteorological Overview: An upper level disturbance continues to move northward through the CWA this morning. Rain showers are diminishing, with some patchy clearing taking place. This could result in some fog developing over Central and North Central MT through the morning hours today. For this afternoon, the airmass becomes slightly unstable with the cold air aloft. This will result in some scattered afternoon showers or an isolated thunderstorm. For tonight through Tuesday, overall expect a drying trend, with showers decreasing, along with seasonable temperatures for Tuesday. Winds will be on the increase along the Rocky Mountain Front and in the Cut Bank area though. Even though it will be windy these areas, wind speeds are expected to remain below warning criteria. For Wednesday into Friday, the next upper level trof starts to approach the CWA by late Wednesday into Wednesday night, with colder air arriving by Thursday morning. Expect rain showers to change to snow at all elevations by Thursday. Snow accumulations look light at lower elevations, with heavier snowfall amounts in the mountains. Afternoon temperatures on Thursday will be about 15 to 20 degrees below normal. The precipitation continues into Friday, but overall, much of the precipitation will end by Friday afternoon. Saturday and Sunday...other than a few mountain showers, generally dry conditions are expected. Additionally, we will have a nice warming trend towards above normal temperatures by Sunday afternoon. Next Monday...mild temperatures continue, but the next upper level disturbance will approach the CWA by Monday afternoon. Expect a return of scattered showers across the CWA by Monday evening. - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: There is less than a 40 percent chance for strong winds Tuesday and Wednesday along the Rocky Mountain Front and in the Cut Bank area. Thus no high wind statements are expected at this time. Overall, right now, the spring storm for Wed night through Friday will be a normal April spring storm in terms of impacts. Overall liquid precipitation will range from a quarter to a half inch over the north...to about 1/2 inch to an inch over the Southwest. The rain will change to snow at all elevations by Thursday, and we will have much below normal temperatures on Thursday. There will be the potential for some heavy snow in the mountains of Southwest MT, especially around Pony, Big Sky and West Yellowstone. Winter statements will likely be needed for this event. Brusda && .AVIATION... 13/18Z TAF Period Initial concern this TAF period will be for patchy lingering low clouds or fog. Concern quickly transitions to showers and a few isolated thunderstorms through early evening. Heading into Tuesday morning, a few instances of fog cannot be ruled out in wind protected areas, otherwise breezy west to southwest winds develop late morning or early afternoon. -AM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 58 38 58 42 / 50 30 0 0 CTB 58 36 54 34 / 40 20 0 0 HLN 57 35 60 37 / 50 20 0 10 BZN 57 31 60 36 / 50 30 0 0 WYS 44 25 47 28 / 70 50 20 10 DLN 53 29 57 35 / 50 20 0 0 HVR 57 37 63 38 / 60 30 0 0 LWT 57 34 60 36 / 40 30 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls  829 FXUS61 KCTP 131709 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 109 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Special Weather Statement for an elevated risk of rapid wildfire spread may be need again for late this morning and this afternoon across Southern PA. * Increased wind gusts by a few knots for this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon as a few upper level disturbance as associated LLVL wind maxes move across New York. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Elevated risk of wildfire spread will be focused across southern PA once again today. 2) Another impressive warm up begins today and continues through the week; near- record warmth on tap for Wednesday and Thursday. 3) Several periods of showers and thunderstorms expected during the upcoming week, with the greatest amount of rainfall likely occurring across northern and western PA. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Elevated risk of wildfire spread will be focused across southern PA once again today. After a few light showers drifted across the region this morning, a mostly dry afternoon is underway.Subtle ridging aloft and low-mid level speed divergence will help suppress most of the showers for the afternoon, with warm temps and a gusty SW wind in the mid 20s to low 30s (KTS). Min RHs in the 30s (Percent) will occur across the South (where the worst drought conditions and driest fine fuels persist). Although Min RHs will be nearly 10 percent higher than Sunday, the other elements will still be conducive to rapid fire spread where ignition occurs. A Special Weather Statement remains in effect until 7PM for much of the southern third of the CWA. ---------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 2: Warm up begins today and continues through the week; near-record warmth on tap for Wednesday and Thursday. LLVL warm advection kicks in today with a moderately gusty southerly flow ushering in a prolonged period of much warmer than normal temperatures through the upcoming week. On the large-scale, our ensemble prediction systems are in good agreement showing a mean upper-level trough across the western CONUS, with downstream upper ridging taking hold from the Gulf states up the eastern seaboard. This will bring a notable warming trend, with daily highs ranging from the 70s-mid 80s across central PA from Tuesday onward. The latest forecast brings near-record temperatures across the region Wednesday morning through Friday morning, with lows both Wednesday and Thursday morning forecast to be warmer than our average highs this time of year (or an incredible 25 to 30 deg F above normal). Highs in the 70s and 80s will accompany lows in the 50s and 60s. Dewpoints will start to approach the 60F mark, so it will feel a bit humid but not overly uncomfortable. ---------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 3: Several periods of showers and thunderstorms expected during the upcoming week, especially in the north and west. In general for the workweek ahead, the storm track will run from SW to NE across the Great Lakes, with several waves of low pressure drifting into Ontario, CA. A frontal boundary will set up generally west to east across New York and keep unsettled weather in place across northwest PA in particular. LLJ will lift across far northern PA western NY this morning, keeping the main focus for any significant convection generally north/west of the region today. For Tuesday, SPC has expanded the MRGL Risk for SVR TSRA over much of the Northern Half of PA for the afternoon and evening as a 35 to 40 kt WSW LLVL wind max advects across that part of the state during peak heating with broad upper level diffluence noted in the westerly flow AOA 500 mb on the southerly flank of an upper level jet max. If you have outdoor plans this week, continue to monitor the forecast - no need to cancel anything yet! The probability for showers/storms will be highest in northwest PA. Locations that have been wet lately will continue to see more rain, while drought- stricken locations across the southeast part of our CWA will see less rainfall. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Ceilings will lower to MVFR at BFD this morning as light rain moves in from the west. These showers are expected to decrease in coverage as they move eastward and ceilings should return to VFR at BFD for the afternoon. Low level wind shear will continue to be a concern through the morning until the stronger winds aloft begin to mix down to the surface. The strongest wind gusts of the day, potentially as strong as 35 to 40 knots, may actually occur from mid morning into the early afternoon with this initial line of showers. Breezy conditions persist through the rest of the afternoon, with gusts of 25 to 30 knots likely. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon, but confidence is low on where they actually set up. Some models suggest that the focus will largely be to the north of Interstate 80, while other models, particularly the HRRR and RRFS, indicate that the majority of the showers and storms may be to the south. PROB30s for -SHRA have been included at all TAF sites for now due to the lingering uncertainty, but this will need to be refined with future TAF issuances. Low clouds should develop once again at BFD after 00Z, with ceilings likely falling to MVFR. VFR conditions are favored at all other TAF sites, though some guidance is showing the potential for patchy fog formation as breaks in the clouds develop and winds decrease. Confidence in any visibility restrictions is low, but MDT and LNS appear to be the most likely to see any fog. Outlook... Tue-Thu...VFR most of the time, but brief restrictions possible in hit and miss showers and thunderstorms, mainly across the north and west. Fri...Restrictions possible early, then improving to VFR in the afternoon. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Banghoff KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Banghoff DISCUSSION...Lambert/Banghoff AVIATION...Bauco  205 FXUS64 KSHV 131710 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1210 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1200 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 - Showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon across much of the ArkLaTex. - There will be a chance for more needed widespread rainfall during midweek and along the cold front arriving on Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1137 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Surface high across the northeast gulf and a low across the Central Plains will maintain an increased pressure gradient across the ArkLaTex today allowing for southwest winds from 10 to 15 mph this afternoon. Southwest flow at all levels will maintain continued Pacific moisture advection allowing for mostly cloudy skies areawide. A decaying convective complex translating northeast across north Louisiana will serve as the catalyst for convection later today across much of the ArkLaTex. Precipitation to diminish this evening with lingering cloud-cover to persist overnight with temperatures forecast to fall into the mid 60s. Overall pattern to remain nearly unchanged through Tuesday. With limited low-level forcing to ignite convection, most of the region to remain precipitation free throughout the day. Highs are forecast to climb into the 80s with portions of northeast Louisiana possibly approaching 90 degrees. An upper-low will swing east across the Midwest on Wednesday evening. Convergence ahead of the trough will enhance the mid- level jet above an already moist and unstable airmass in the vicinity of a weak surface low across Oklahoma. Showers and thunderstorms ongoing across central Oklahoma on Wednesday morning to swing east across the I-30 corridor during the day. Some storms could possibly produce strong gusty winds and small hail during the time of peak heating. Next impactful weather event will occur late Friday night into Saturday as a frontal boundary moves southeast across the region. Widespread rainfall can be expected through much of Saturday across the ArkLaTex. High pressure building behind the front will allow for an overall shift in the weather pattern with dry conditions to prevail through the remainder of the weekend into Monday along with much cooler temperatures ranging from highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s. /05/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 652 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A band of decaying convection over E TX S of I-20 will continue to weaken as it moves into Wrn LA to start the 12Z TAF period, but may affect the LFK/SHV terminals through mid-morning before diminishing. Locally gusty winds to 30kts will be possible just away from this convection, which will disrupt low MVFR cig development across these areas. Away from the convection, low MVFR cigs have developed across the region, and should eventually redevelop over areas currently seeing the convection, and linger through a better part of the morning before lifting/returning to VFR. MVFR cigs may linger though through mid afternoon across E TX/SW AR before becoming VFR, although scattered convection should again redevelop over much of the region around midday, and persist through late afternoon before diminishing around/shortly after 00Z. Have maintained VCSH for most terminals, with VCTS for the SW AR and SHV terminals for the afternoon. Once the convection diminishes, VFR cigs may persist through a portion of the evening over NE TX/SW AR, before more extensive low MVFR/possibly IFR cigs develop by/after 06Z Tuesday over SE and ECntrl TX and quickly spread N across much of the region through the end of the TAF period. These cigs should not reach MLU/ELD until around or shortly after 12Z Tuesday, and not begin to lift until mid to late morning. S winds 10-15kts with gusts to 25kts will diminish to 5-10kts after 00Z. /15/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1240 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Spotter activation should not be needed through tonight. /15/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 66 86 65 86 / 0 0 0 10 MLU 65 88 63 88 / 10 0 0 0 DEQ 62 82 62 80 / 10 10 20 40 TXK 67 86 66 85 / 10 0 0 20 ELD 63 86 61 85 / 10 0 0 10 TYR 68 84 67 84 / 0 10 0 20 GGG 66 84 66 84 / 10 0 0 10 LFK 66 85 66 85 / 0 0 0 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...05 AVIATION...15  767 FXUS63 KDTX 131710 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 110 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Stretch of warm conditions throughout the work week with daytime temperatures in the 70s each day for most locations. - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms develop tonight. Potential exists for isolated severe storms capable of producing wind gusts to 60 mph and large hail. Locally heavy rainfall also possible. - An active pattern will maintain periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday. Each episode brings the possibility for locally heavy rainfall. - There is a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms Tuesday night, mainly between 8 pm and 2 am. Storms will be capable of producing wind gusts to 60 mph, large hail and isolated tornadoes. && .AVIATION... Diurnal mixing expected to support lower VFR ceilings this afternoon- evening with west turning southerly winds gradually diminishing. Active pattern returns tonight as a series of systems cross the Great Lakes. First of this sparks convection over the western Great Lakes this evening with the remnants working across SE MI overnight. Model space is spilt between more northerly tracks (over northern lower MI into the Saginaw Valley) or a more southerly tracks directly across the local area. Trends have been starting to favor the southerly outcomes so have hedged current TAFs in that direction. Initial showers and perhaps a thunderstorm are possible by 01-02Z though main window currently looks to be 03-07Z for widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms. There is a secondary window late early Tuesday morning (08-13Z) for additional upstream decaying convection to roll southeast over the terminal corridor though this carries lower thunderstorm potential. DTW/D21 Convection... Uncertainty remains high tonight in timing and location of convection. There has been a trend toward more southerly convection increasing chances over the airport between 01-05Z. Secondary window for storms early Tuesday morning between roughly 10- 12Z, though this will likely be decaying as it approaches. .DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Moderate for ceilings aob 5000 feet this afternoon-evening, high tonight into early Tuesday. * Low to moderate for thunderstorms tonight into early Tuesday morning. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 311 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 DISCUSSION... Longwave trough over the west coast and ridging over the SE conus continue to remain firmly in place to start the week keeping the central conus up into the Midwest/Great Lakes in a pattern of deep layer southwesterly flow. This will result in warmer than normal temperatures with highs mainly in the 70s (outside of locations along Lake Huron shoreline), gusty daytime winds, daily rain chances, strong to severe storms at times, and a risk of flooding. While consistency in the longwave pattern adds some confidence to the forecast this week, inconsistencies in the short range models resolving mesoscale features (like potential upstream MCS development) still leaves questions about precip timing and QPF placement. Convective nature to most of the precip also brings into question model QPF output which likely will fall on the low side where the storms line up. Helping to dictate placement of showers and storms will be a warm front extending eastward from a surface low setting up over the central/northern Plains. The front will largely be positioned over northern MI with typical fluctuations due to convective complexes. This paints central and northern MI with the highest QPF and highest confidence of these periods of rain/storms as the mid level waves pass over that region as well. Farther south over most of SE MI, we'll have waves of storms pass over with periods of dry in between. I'll highlight higher confidence time windows tied to mid level features, but there will be likely be convective complexes that will be handled with shorter fused forecast updates. For today, SPC has all of lower MI in a Marginal Risk for severe storms. Early morning rain should be ending soon after sunrise this morning with warm and dry conditions most of the day. There are 2 windows for potential showers/storms mainly later this evening and tonight. First from 23-03Z as the potential convection firing over eastern Iowa rides the elevated instability gradient into southern MI. The Canadian hires models are most bullish with bringing widespread stronger convection across the area. Most of the rest of the model suite advertises more scattered activity but something to watch none-the-less. SPC outlook likely more for the later round of storms as a surface low riding the warm front with the nose of the next stronger llj after 05Z. Strong mid level lapse rates and MUCAPE up around 1000 J/kg for both events with strong capping from WAA so elevated storms would be most likely with a hail threat, but there is a wind threat as well. By Tuesday the longwave trough will have crossed the Rockies which will continue eastward passing through the Great Lakes late Thursday. Several more shortwaves will pass through the region during this time. Things are continuing to look like Tuesday evening could get quiet active locally though as the overnight low crossing northern MI strengthens the front stalled across Mid MI while the next strong llj around 50 knots surges into the region. CAPE will rise greater than 2000 J/kg with models soundings showing the instability become surface based. Very strong lapse rates will be present with strong shear. Timing looks most likely after 00Z but carrying through much of the night with an west-east orientation allowing for training storms. Some models are targeting Mid MI for the highest QPF while others suggest earlier convection will push an outflow boundary down to near M59 which will have additional storms focusing down there. SPC Day2 outlook has most of lower MI in a Slight Risk designation with all hazards possible. In addition to the severe chances, we are in a ERO Marginal Risk so rainfall amounts will need to be monitored. Storm chances continue Wed and Thurs as the main upper level trough passes over the region. Friday into Saturday looks dry as shortwave ridging builds overhead but the next longwave trough is already working across the conus and will bring storm chances back to the forecast Saturday and Sunday. Strong cold front looks to pass through the region Sunday dropping highs back into the 50s with lows in the 30s. MARINE... Small Craft Advisories remain in effect this morning for the southern Lake Huron nearshores, in addition to Lake St. Clair and western Lake Erie. Waves are responding to stronger gradient winds, in excess of 20 knots. A few gusts to gales remain possible early this morning until a 65+ knot low-level jet axis exits the central Great Lakes. The main area of concern amidst the constricted southwest flow remains Saginaw Bay, funneling/converging off-shore, but also near The Straits. Conditions quickly improve this evening after shortwave ridging moves in. Several additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely throughout the week due to a series of troughs, low pressure systems, and fronts. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ AVIATION.....KDK DISCUSSION...DRK MARINE.......KGK You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.  694 FXUS62 KTAE 131710 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 110 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 110 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 - Patchy fog is possible on Tuesday morning over the Florida Panhandle and Southeast Alabama, mainly west of the Choctawhatchee River. If encountering fog while driving, slow down, use low beam headlights, and increase braking distance. - Little or no rain is expected through this weekend. Drought conditions will worsen. Fire concerns will remain elevated. Use extreme caution with any outdoor burning. Please heed burn bans where they are in effect. - Above normal temperatures will continue through this weekend, with lower 90s likely late this week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 141 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Little or no sensible change is expected today. A strong upper ridge will dominate our weather, keeping things warm and dry. Nothing more than flat fair weather cumulus are expected this afternoon. Some fog may form early this morning, then again early Tuesday morning, over the Panhandle and Southeast Alabama, mainly west of the Choctawhatchee River. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 141 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Through Saturday, a strong and amplified 500 mb ridge axis will remain aligned from the Yucatan across the FL Peninsula. Our 500 mb heights will remain high throughout this week, with the ensuing warm dry air aloft strongly capping the atmosphere. Precipitable Water (PW) values of 0.5 to 1.0 inches will be way too dry for any seabreeze convection. Under such a strong upper high, temperatures will run 5-10 degrees above normal, most notably the afternoon highs. Next Sunday, the ridge will flatten as a more significant upper trough progresses across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. A cold front will try to push south across the region, but it will be losing strength as it moves south across our region. Upper support will leave it behind, and it will be moving beneath an increasingly warm and dry mid-level air mass as it pushes south. Most ensemble members keep next Sunday dry. The low percentage that do show some rain keep it quite light... just a few mere hundredths of an inch. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 110 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 VFR conditions are being observed for all terminals this afternoon. Skies are largely clear besides some fair-weather cumulus at ECP/TLH and some lingering upper cirrus across the region. Winds generally out of the SE will taper off this afternoon and into tonight. This reduction in winds will help bolster some potential for fog development early tomorrow morning - mostly for DHN and VLD where RH values will likely be maximized. There is also the potential for some patchy fog at ECP tomorrow morning, however confidence is too low at this time to include it in the TAF. && .MARINE... Issued at 141 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 An Atlantic ridge axis will extend across South Georgia for most of this week, maintaining gentle to occasionally moderate southeast breezes, with nearshore seabreezes each afternoon. Late in the week, the ridge axis will settle south a little and set up more directly across the waters. Light and gentle southerlies will prevail then. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 141 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 The main story through next weekend will be the continued lack of rain. Drought conditions will continue worsening. Otherwise, a warm and dry air mass will be in place throughout this week. Light southerly flow will prevail, with stronger seabreezes becoming dominant each afternoon. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 141 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Little or no rainfall is expected through the next 7 days. Drought will continue or worsen. Flooding is not expected. For more local drought information & statements, visit the following websites: weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 58 86 58 87 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 59 81 61 81 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 56 87 58 87 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 57 87 59 88 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 58 89 59 90 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 57 88 57 88 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 61 76 63 76 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114- 115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Haner LONG TERM....Haner AVIATION...Merrifield MARINE...Haner FIRE WEATHER...Haner HYDROLOGY...Haner  405 FXUS63 KLBF 131714 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 1214 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Red Flag Warning has been issued for areas along and north of I-80 today. - A warm front develops south of the area Tuesday. Increasing chances for rain will develop to the north of this front Tuesday night. - Critical fire weather conditions are possible Thursday afternoon across the area. - A strong cold front will bring much cooler temperatures and a threat for precipitation Thursday night into Saturday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 309 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 The Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for areas along and north of I-80 for this afternoon. Very warm temperatures are expected again today, with highs ranging from the mid 70s across the Panhandle to the lower and mid 80s for areas along and east of Highway 83. Regional sounding profiles indicate a very deep mixed layer once again this afternoon. Bufkit sounding profile data from O'Neill and Broken Bow indicate deep mixing, and while winds don't look quite as strong as yesterday, frequent westerly gusts around 25 mph certainly are possible from early this afternoon until around 6 PM CDT or so. After the grass fires yesterday fuels are obviously still ready to burn. Decided with such low relative humidity (Fire Weather Zone (FWZ) 209) needs to be added the Red Flag Warning due to the expected/potential winds. The stronger winds look to remain in the western part of 209, mainly west of Highway 281. Otherwise, the Sandhills and north central Nebraska, as well as the Panhandle should see frequent gusts over 35 mph and potentially in the 40-45 mph range. All of this will combine with very low humidity (as low as 10% across portions of the Sandhills) and 11-18% elsewhere. Did not include areas south of I-80 in today's warning. Winds do increase and could see a few gusts around 25 mph for a brief time around midday. Winds actually decrease slightly this afternoon when humidity is lowest, so left these areas out. If winds end up stronger, then it is possible they may be have to be added. Winds quickly decrease this evening all areas and shift to more northerly by late this evening. Have trimmed an hour off of the warning and will have it expiring at 9 PM CDT due to the rapid decrease in winds. Overall, humidity recovery is poor most areas tonight. The exception will be portions of north central Nebraska around O'Neill where decent recovery between 75-80% is expected. Humidity will remain low Tuesday, but winds look lighter and east to northeast in direction with the area north of a developing warm front. As the warm front develops along the Nebraska/Kansas border through the day Tuesday...surface low pressure will deepen across western Kansas and eastern Colorado. Some pooling of moisture both at the surface and aloft will occur to the north of the boundary by late Tuesday afternoon and especially Tuesday night. A decent shortwave will help to induce large scale lift Tuesday night, with an area of strong mid-level FGEN developing from southwest to northeast across the area north of the frontal boundary. As the lift increases, showers and a few thunderstorms will likely develop. MUCAPE values are on the order of 500 J/KG across the southern Sandhills and into southwest Nebraska. Shear looks strong as well, and could see an isolated stronger storm or two that produce small hail. Probabilities of receiving 1/4" or more of rainfall are decent for areas along and north of I-80 into the Sandhills Tuesday night. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 309 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A frontal boundary will remain stalled out to the southeast of the forecast area Wednesday. At the same time, a mid level disturbance will lift from Colorado into Nebraska, north of the frontal boundary, leading to an increased threat for precipitation. The current NBM forecast has pops on the order of 30 to 60 percent across the area. This seems to agree well with the NBM ensemble probabilities of > 0.01" of precipitation. ATTM, there is a decent threat for measurable precipitation with this system, however, when QPF thresholds are increased to 0.10" probabilities of exceedance fall off considerably. So with this mid week system the threat for a wetting rain looks meager at best. As for highs Wednesday, readings will be in the mid to upper 60s. Temperatures will warm back into the 80s behind the exiting shortwave on Thursday and ahead of an approaching cold front. Widespread minimum RH of 10 to 20 percent looks likely Thursday. With a decent threat for gusty winds ahead of an approaching cold front, near-critical or critical fire weather conditions looks probable Thursday afternoon. A strong cold front will track through the forecast area Thursday night. Behind the front, the threat for precipitation will increase over northwestern Nebraska Thursday night, spreading east into the remainder of the forecast area Friday and Saturday. Currently, the mid range model solutions have divergent solutions with respect to the mid level forcing behind the exiting front. The GFS soln lifts a closed H5 low across North Dakota. With this scenario, the main area of post frontal precipitation will be from North Dakota into Minnesota. The EC soln has a strong shortwave tracking across Nebraska Friday into Friday night with the EC soln being more favorable for precipitation. Why is the mid level forcing so important here. Temperatures behind the front Friday night into Saturday morning appear cold enough to support snow. If the EC verifies, we could see some light accumulations of snow. If the GFS verifies, abundant mid level dry air with severely limit QPF and snow potential. Looking at the EC ensembles with this weekend system, less than half of the members have measurable pcpn for North Platte. The latest NBM ensemble QPF forecast has ~50% chance for measurable pcpn Friday night/Saturday. Again when this threshold is raised to 0.1" percentages drop considerably. Current pops are in the 30 to 50 percent range and this seems like a good place to start. Temperatures will be chilly Saturday and Sunday with highs in the 50s. Widespread sub freezing temperatures appear likely Friday night and Saturday night with readings in the 20s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1213 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Some stronger winds are expected this afternoon across much of north central Nebraska. Westerly wind gusts up to 20 to 25 knots should be expected through the afternoon before diminishing around sunset. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through Tuesday morning as winds remain below 10 knots and ceilings above 6000 feet. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for NEZ204-206-208-209. && $$ SHORT TERM...Taylor LONG TERM...Buttler AVIATION...Kulik  850 FXUS64 KLCH 131716 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1216 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 80s for a majority of the area, with some low 90s possible. -Next good chance for showers and thunderstorms comes in next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 As of 1230CDT, isolated showers are still present on radar, however they will continue to taper over the rest of the overnight period. In some areas, we could see patchy to dense fog which will mainly be dependent on wind speeds tonight. A majority of the forecast period will be a wash, rinse, repeat with no rinsing or washing because rain does not make a significant appearance into the forecast until Saturday. Over the work week, a surface high pressure off to the east will maintain southerly flow and the stream of gulf moisture. Aloft, an upper level high pressure will assist in keeping the area nearly rain free and plenty warm. For the first few days of the work week, temperatures will be in the lower to mid 80s, with mid to upper 80s (and possibly low 90s) in store for us from the mid week period. Overnight conditions will be warm and humid, with low temps forecast to generally be in the mid to upper 60s. This weekend will be our next shot for showers and storms as a cold front moves through the area. Outside of that, it could bring a temporary relief from the heat with temperatures behind it back in the climo normals range. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Scattered to broken cloud deck around 3000ft will continue to stream across the region this afternoon, allowing some sites to occasionally waffle between VFR and MVFR. Southerly winds around 10kts with occasional gusts to around 20kts will persist through the afternoon hours as well. This evening/tonight, winds lighten slightly while ceilings become VFR areawide. Winds will remain light through tomorrow morning, increasing thereafter with more gusts expected. && .MARINE... Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 High pressure over the southeastern U.S. will maintain east to brisk southeast winds across the northern gulf for the next several days with seas remaining consistently between 2-3 feet over the nearshore coastal waters and 3-5 feet over the outer coastal waters. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Southerly winds will continue to be breezy mainly in the afternoon to evening hours over the next few days. Relative humidity values will increase as moisture continues to be transported in from the gulf. Little to no chances for showers are likely during the work week, however rain chances increase this weekend with an incoming cold front. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...87 AVIATION...17  524 FXUS63 KIWX 131718 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 118 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Unseasonably warm temperatures expected through the work week with highs in the 70s and even some 80s at times. - There is a Slight Risk of severe storms today from mid afternoon through this evening. Isolated large hail and isolated damaging wind gusts would be the main threats. - The active period of weather continues Tuesday through Thursday with continued periodic higher chances of showers and storms. There is a Slight Risk of severe storms Tuesday late afternoon through the early overnight hours which represents the period of greatest severe weather potential. All severe hazards are possible including the potential of some locally heavy rainfall. Confidence in severe weather is lower for Wednesday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 935 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 While the overall forecast remains unchanged at the moment, we will be closely monitoring a mid level wave currently moving ne through Missouri with a small area of showers and storms. Several models are hinting at development later this afternoon (after 21Z) of at least isolated storms in association with this feature and an associated EML and steep lapse rates. Degree of destabilization is still in question with pockets of clearing ahead of the wave possibly limiting the threat. Based on the threat, SPC has expanded the slight risk for today into our area (west of I-69 and north of US-24) for a hail/wind threat. This is by no means a slam dunk, but will need to watch trends into this afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 330 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 The combination of a mid level short wave and broad advective forcing has sustained rain showers from west to east across the area this morning. Despite the decent moisture transport this morning, the strength of the low level thermal ridge has allowed for large enough low level dew point depressions to provide some enhancement to surface wind gusts in association with these showers. Fairly strong background flow (~40 knots in lowest gate of KIWX VWP data) has also mixed down fairly efficiently with these showers with some instances of 40-50 mph wind gusts. This potential should gradually wane over next few hours. Higher res guidance does indicate some renewed convective development on southern periphery of departing mid level wave, and where secondary low level theta-e ridge starts to nose into north central IN next few hours. This could yield a cluster of showers with perhaps embedded thunderstorms across northern IN/northwest OH early this morning through daybreak. Additional showers and storms are possible today, and the Storm Prediction Center has continued a Marginal Risk of severe storms for most of the forecast area. Some lull in scattered/showers storms is expected by mid morning, but will need to watch for possibility of weak mid level wave across Kansas as it reaches the western Great Lakes this evening. A renewed surge of stronger low level theta-e advection is expected to accompany this short wave with strongest advective forcing expected across northeast IL. The approach of this Central Plains wave will also mark the leading edge of stronger mid level lapse rates. While synoptic forcing does not appear strong today, destabilizing trends in thermodynamic environment with the steeper mid level lapse rates and the presence of the more distinct low/mid level theta-e boundary could provide a focus for at least an isolated severe threat late this afternoon into this evening. While greatest threat for isolated severe today may be north of US 30 as mid level speed max shifts across southern Great Lakes, hard to discount any location across forecast area given theta-e boundary will likely be hanging back a bit more to the south from northeast Illinois into the local area. MLCAPEs on the order of 1500-2000 J/kg, modest deep layer shear of 30 to 40 knots, and steep low level lapse rates could pose some threat of isolated damaging wind gusts in addition to large hail threat with steep mid level lapse rates. Some lull in thunder chances is expected early overnight, but may need to watch for possibility of remnants of stronger Great Lakes convection to propagate southward to the southern Great Lakes toward daybreak Tuesday. These storms could have some strong wind gusts persisting early Tuesday morning but confidence in this evolution is low. Tuesday/Tuesday night still appears to be the period of greatest concern for scattered severe storms and most of the forecast area remains in an SPC Day 2 Slight Risk for severe storms. The forecast challenge for this event remains on convective initiation portion of the event. Stronger mid/upper level forcing will likely be hanging back to the west across the Rockies as primary upper level wave begins to shear eastward. Best forcing mechanisms for convective initiation will be at nose of stronger low level flow and strong low level moisture convergence across NW IL/SW WI/NE IA. Will need to see if there is any remnant leftover boundary from early Tuesday Great Lakes convection that help overcome some surface based CIN for more of an isolated storm development locally during the early/mid afternoon hours. The expectation is still that discrete storm development across Mid MS Rvr Valley should tend to congeal across western/southern Great Lakes later evening Tuesday with strong component of shear parallel to the boundary. Greatest potential severe risks still appear to be large hail 1-2" in diameter given very steep mid level lapse rates and damaging wind gusts, with greatest potential of hail across the northwest which could be involved in the earlier stages of the event mid- late evening. Some potential of heavy rainfall will also have to be monitored as outflow emanating from this convection may become parallel to environmental shear. A strengthening southwest LLJ south feeding into these potential storms/outflow should also weaken upwind propagation vectors yielding potential of training convection. Wednesday's severe potential will be conditional on convective evolution Tuesday night, and if more mature convective system can develop Tuesday night an effective boundary may get pushed across southern half of the forecast area during the day. Instability magnitudes should be more questionable on Wednesday and stronger synoptic forcing will still likely be lagging back to the west. Some isolated severe potential may evolve (mainly wind), but confidence is lower in comparison to late Tuesday. The primary upper level wave will finally top the ridge across the Great Lakes on Thursday, but slow evolution of this feature will keep thunder chances going into Thursday. Some indications in guidance that better kinematic fields on Thursday could be eastward displaced from better instability hanging back to the west/southwest, so any organized severe threat appears to be low at this time. 108 After brief low level CAA late Thursday, quick rebound of mid level heights and rapid onset of low level WAA will keep the much above normal temps going through Friday (highs possibly back near 80 by Friday). No significant changes made to temp forecast through Friday, with confidence in continued much above normal temperatures and daily highs in the 70s. Medium range guidance continues to struggle with ensemble/deterministic consensus on timing frontal passage with next stronger longwave trough next weekend, but an overall trend to least a brief shot of cooler temperatures still appears on track for late weekend/early next week, along with a potential of more showers/storms first half of weekend with cold frontal passage. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 118 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A general trend to VFR ceilings is anticipated for the afternoon, but cannot completely discount a rogue BKN MVFR ceiling amid fair-weather cumulus. The main question of this TAF period is how do any thunderstorms evolve this afternoon and what impact does that have for the rest of the TAF period. Given the very high PWATs, have opted to bring the visibility down to IFR for TSRA. Storms are trying to remain organized across Illinois. Our local environment appears welcoming to these storms. At this stage, KSBN appears the best candidate to see TSRA, while KFWA would wait until tonight. Confidence is unusually low for these next 24 hours given a lack of model consistency and murky mesoscale factors. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...Fisher DISCUSSION...Marsili AVIATION...Brown  243 FXUS64 KOHX 131719 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1219 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1213 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 - Low to medium (<50%) rain chances through the afternoon, but amounts are expected to be light. Medium to high rain chances forecast again on Thursday (30-70%). - Continued unseasonal warmth through the upcoming week. Record highs are possible Tuesday and Wednesday. - Medium rain/storm chances this weekend along a cold front. No severe weather is expected at this time. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Tuesday) Issued at 1150 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A weak disturbance is passing through the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys currently and this is just enough for clouds and light rain across the Mid State. Amounts are very light, but this is certainly moderating temperatures. Rain activity will fade off mid to late afternoon with arrival of drier mid-level air. Tuesday will be another very warm day with ridging taking back over in the wake of the exiting shortwave. Ample sunshine and dry air will be in place with highs well into the 80s. We could approach records, in fact. The main concern tomorrow is continued fire weather concerns due to dryness, low RHs, and afternoon gusts 20-25 mph. Outdoor burning is highly discouraged. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday Night through next Monday) Issued at 1150 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Wednesday looks to be the warmest day of the forecast period with highs once again well into the 80s. The record of 87 degrees in BNA is in certain jeopardy. Thankfully we'll have another shot at rain and clouds on Thursday to help moderate temperatures. This disturbance appears to be more robust than the one moving through the area today which will provide better lift and overall moisture availability. PoPs and QPF have both increased, but this will also be another relatively light rainfall event that will no make significant drought improvements. And with the continued ups and downs, Friday into Saturday should be another brief period of warm, dry weather with synoptic ridging still in place across the Southeast. However, medium-range guidance is still consistent with a fairly potent upper-low and low pressure system moving through the Great Lakes Saturday night. A cold front is forecast to advance across Middle Tennesse bringing at least medium chances for rain and storms. I expect PoPs will continue to increase with this system. With the passage of the cold front, Sunday into early next week looks cooler as this trough/front passage looks to defeat the stubborn ridge in the region. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 VFR conditions with BKN to OVC mid-level clouds. Light rain will continue through this afternoon which may result in brief MVFR visibilities at BNA and MQY. Otherwise, southwesterly winds will occasionally be gusty through this afternoon at around 15-20 knots. Winds will calm with decreasing clouds this evening and overnight. Southwesterly winds will become gusty again by mid to late Tuesday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 65 87 64 86 / 10 10 0 0 Clarksville 67 87 66 86 / 10 10 0 0 Crossville 60 82 58 83 / 0 10 0 0 Columbia 64 87 61 86 / 10 0 0 0 Cookeville 62 82 61 83 / 0 10 0 0 Jamestown 60 82 59 84 / 10 10 0 0 Lawrenceburg 63 84 60 84 / 0 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 64 87 62 86 / 10 10 0 0 Waverly 67 87 66 86 / 10 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sizemore LONG TERM....Sizemore AVIATION.....Clements  875 FXUS61 KALY 131719 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 119 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Initial batch of showers has diminished across the region this morning with only a few left over the southern Adirondacks. Hourly PoPs update into the late morning. Winds/wind gusts were increased today in the Capital Region/Taconics/portions of the Hudson River Valley with the warm frontal passage with some gusts 30-40 mph possible. PoPs were increased Tue pm from the I-90 corridor northward with the pre- frontal sfc trough. Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across the ALY forecast area on Tue. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Breezy south/southwest winds today with some gusts 30-40 mph as another disturbance brings scattered to numerous showers. 2. Chance of thunderstorms Tue pm/early evening with a few strong to potentially severe across eastern NY and western New England with a Level 1 Marginal Severe Risk. 3. High confidence for above normal temps mid week into the weekend, along with periodic chances for showers and some thunderstorms prior to Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A warm front continues to approach from PA and the Mid Atlantic Region this morning, as a prefrontal sfc trough continues to bring some showers to the Adirondacks and southern VT. The mid and upper level flow continues to be nearly zonal. In the warm advection pattern, south to southeast winds have increased with some gusts 25 to 35 mph in the Capital Region and over the northern Taconics. A southwesterly low-level jet at 850 hPa of 40-55 KT will impact the region today focusing another round of showers with the warm front and a prefrontal sfc trough. Little to no instability is present, so thunder was left out of the forecast. The south to southwest winds will increase to 15-25 mph in the immediate Capital Region, portions of the Hudson River Valley, the north central Taconics, eastern Catskills, and the Berkshires and N-S oriented valleys with some gusts 30-40 mph. We leaned closer to the latest NBM 90% wind/wind gusts for late this morning through the afternoon. The peak gusts will likely be in the early to mid pm with the trough passage. The highest POPs in the 50-90% range will be north and west of the Tri Cities. Highs today with mostly cloudy conditions will be mild with mid 50s to mid 60s over the higher terrain, and mid 60s to mid 70s in the valleys. Showers diminish tonight with some patchy fog developing in the southern Dacks and upper Hudson Valley. Lows will be very mild in the 50s with some mid/upper 40s over the Adirondack Park and southern Greens. KEY MESSAGE 2... On Tuesday, the flow continues to be zonal across the Great Lakes Region into the Northeast with strong ridging over the Southeast and Gulf Region. H850 temps will be running 1 to 2 STDEVs above normal, as max temps on Tue will generally be 15-20 degrees above normal with 60s and 70s with a few lower 80s near I-84. The main frontal boundary will be near northern NY and the Canadian border. A prefrontal sfc trough and weak wave moving along the boundary will bring some late morning/afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The timing is variable on the CAMs, but some of the storms could be tall enough for strong/isolated damaging wind gusts. The latest HREFS forecasts mean SBCAPEs 500-1000 J/kg with 0-6 km deep shear 40-50 KT. Mid level lapse rates will be steep with some of the model sounding showing steep low-level lapse rates. Sfc dewpoints will be in the 50s to lower 60s. A cluster of thunderstorms may impact the region with some isolated damaging wind gusts. SPC has upgraded most of the region into a Level 1 Marginal Risk. The 3-km NAM has a bit more instability with MLCAPEs around 1000 J/kg. Some strong to potentially severe t-storms look possible Tue pm into the early evening. Zonal flow is challenging to time these disturbances. We kept our highest PoPs for showers (60-90%) and a chance of t-storms from the Capital Region north and west. The shower/t-storm activity diminishes prior to midnight with another very mild night with lows in the 50s to lower 60s. Key Message 3... The sensible weather pattern does not change much from the mid to latter portion of the week. Low to mid level west to southwest flow continues with a series of short-wave impulses moving through the northern periphery of the ridge over the Southeast and FL impacting the region. The main frontal boundary remains stationary over nrn NY and northern New England. Another prefrontal disturbance and a wave brings another batch of showers and isolated to widely scattered t-storms. A few could once again be on the strong side north and west of the Capital Region. Max temps in the 70s to lower 80s will be common except over the northern mtns where some 60s are possible. The latest 01Z NBM yields a 40-90% chance for max temps >80F from the Capital District south into the mid Hudson Valley, the southern Taconics and NW CT. As referenced in the previous forecast discussion, the record at KPOU on WED could be tied or broken, and see the climate section below for records. Some signals from the medium guidance and ensembles that the warmest day could be Thu with low and mid level heights increasing. The NBM has 30-50% probabilities are far north as the Mohawk Valley and portions of southern VT for max temps >80F possible...60-90% probabilities are forecasted from the southern Capital Region south and east. Widespread upper 70s and lower 80s are likely on Thu with the best chance for showers/thunderstorms north I-90 Thu-Thu night. A few strong t-storms may be possible depending on the amount of instability. The cold front and a mid and upper level trough continues the April showery weather on Fri with slightly cooler temps in the 60s and 70s. A brief break in the active weather may open the weekend with high pressure building in, but another front and trough brings showers back in to close the weekend. Temps still look above normal by 10-15 degrees for next weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Fast moving disturbance, aided by a weak surface trough, has been allowing for some light rain showers this afternoon. Based on radar trends and CAMs, best chance for additional showers will be across northern areas near KGFL. Recent and nearby surface observations have been showing limited impacts on visibility and ceilings from these showers, due to dry air at low levels and fairly limited forcing, so won't expect much impact on the TAF sites. Will include a brief tempo for MVFR conditions at KGFL over next few hours, otherwise, it should stay VFR through the rest of the afternoon hours. South to southwest winds have been gusty, although not nearby as strong as what was indicated in the previous TAF. Will continue to mention sustained winds of 10 to 15 kts, with some gusts in the 20-26 kt range, mainly for KALB and KPSF through the afternoon hours. These winds should decrease this evening with the loss of daytime mixing. For tonight, flying conditions will generally be VFR. There will be bkn-ovc cigs around 3500-5000 ft for a good portion of the overnight, with some clearing late. A lingering breeze, dry low levels and enough clouds should keep any fog from developing tonight. Westerly winds will gradually lower to around 5 kts by the late night hours. Flying conditions will start VFR for Tuesday, but lowering ceilings are expected by afternoon, as a band of showers and possible thunderstorms approach. Will mention MVFR cigs towards midday with south to southwest winds around 10 kts. Best chance for precip will be towards the end of the TAF period (ending as 18z Tuesday) and into the late afternoon hours. Outlook... Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures(Year Set): Tuesday April 14: Albany: 89(2023) Glens Falls: 84(2023) Poughkeepsie: 91(2023) Wednesday April 15: Albany: 86(2003) Glens Falls: 84(2003) Poughkeepsie: 84(2003) Thursday April 16: Albany: 91(2012) Glens Falls: 89(2002) Poughkeepsie: 91(2012) && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...15 AVIATION...27 CLIMATE...07  105 FXUS65 KPUB 131723 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1123 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - High Fire Danger/Red Flag Warnings continue today and Tuesday - Rain and high mountain snow showers expected late Monday night into Tuesday night, with light to moderate snow accumulations along the Continental Divide - Fire danger increases again Wednesday through Friday, ahead of another chance of precipitation Friday into Saturday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 139 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Warm, dry and windy pattern continues today, with upper trough moving through the Great Basin and strong upper jet across Colorado. Gust potential looks a bit higher than Sun over the mountains and San Luis Valley, and won't be too surprised to see a few 50 mph gusts over/near the Sangres as 7h flow is around 40 kts and 5h winds close to 50 kts. Least windy spots will be near the KS border where surface pressure gradient weakens, and also through portions of Pueblo County, where weak ely gradient keeps deeper mixing at bay until mid-afternoon. Maxes again well above seasonal averages with 80s on the plains. As trough approaches, could see a few showers along the Continental Divide by late day, though heavier precip holds off until after sunset. Upper trough moves through Utah Monday night, then across Colorado Tuesday into Tues night. Snow increases along the Continental Divide Mon night, especially in the San Juans, where some accumulations of up to 3 inches are possible by sunrise Tue, mainly above 9000 feet. Over the remaining high terrain, precip slowly expands eastward starting Tue morning, with scattered to numerous showers over most mountains/valleys through the day. On the plains, strong w-sw flow ahead of the upper trough persists, with winds gusting 35-45 mph and humidity falling off to around 10 percent. Have converted the Fire Weather Watch for Tue to a Red Flag Warning, as we'll have several hours of critical conditions before front arrives late afternoon/early evening. Trough moves overhead Tue night, exiting into the plains Wed morning. Could see at least a chance of showers Tue night over much of the area, highest pops over the central mountains and along the Palmer Divide, where upward motion is slightly stronger, while far southeast plains miss out on most activity. May need a winter wx advisory for San Juans as storm total snow edges upward toward 8 inches, while most remaining higher mountains see lower amounts in the 3-6 inch range. Snow level falls low enough that we could at least see a mix over the Palmer Divide late Tue evening/Wed morning, though not expecting much if any accumulation here. System moves east Wed morning, with just some lingering flurries/sprinkles by sunrise. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 139 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Brief upper ridge builds across srn CO on Wednesday, with perhaps just enough lingering moisture for a sprinkle/flurry over the higher peaks through the day. Main concern Wed is return of near critical fire weather conditions, as lee surface trough deepens on the plains, while areas of gap-flow enhanced winds develop over/near the ern mountains. Have held off on a highlight at this point, as critical conditions look rather spotty and short-lived, though Fremont County could get close to criteria by late day. Thursday looks like a high fire danger day across the entire area, as next upper trough moves into the wrn U.S. and deep w-sw flow redevelops across CO. Trough then swings through the Rockies Fri/Sat, with still some spread in track/timing/strength evident. Models/ensembles in general have trended faster with bringing the cold front through the region on Fri, which could limit critical fire weather conditions somewhat, though still a lot timing changes to go before committing to any solution this far out. Shower chances spread from west to east late Fri into Sat as trough swings through, though a good deal of data suggests a track again slightly too far north for heavy precip over srn CO. System does look substantially colder than the past few, and freezing temperatures may be widespread across srn CO both Sat and Sun mornings. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1122 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 KCOS, KPUB, and KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Winds are expected to become gusty at the start of this TAF period, with gusts to 30 knots expected at all three TAF sites. As diurnal mixing stops this evening, winds are expected to lessen some, though will remain around 10-12 knots. Otherwise, dry conditions with pockets of mid to high level clouds is expected through this TAF period. With that said, KALS may be impacted from showers pushing off of the surrounding higher terrain this evening. Biggest impacts from these showers may be brief reductions in visibility. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ220>222- 224>237. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Tuesday for COZ227>237. && $$ SHORT TERM...PETERSEN LONG TERM...PETERSEN AVIATION...SIMCOE  308 FXUS63 KMPX 131723 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1223 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon and evening. There is a level 3 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms south of a line from Redwood Falls to the Twin Cities and Eau Claire. Large hail is the main threat, but damaging winds and a couple tornadoes are also possible. - Additional chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday/ Wednesday night and Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 350 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Stratus is advancing south from northern Minnesota early this morning behind a cold front. The front will stall near a line from Redwood Falls to the southern Twin Cities metro and Eau Claire a bit later this morning. The low clouds will linger through much of the morning, but should attempt to break up by this afternoon. The differential heating along the boundary will increase baroclinicity. An area of low pressure will track along it this afternoon and evening and the SW-NE oriented LLJ will strengthen to 40-45 kts across Iowa. The increased forcing and low level moisture advection will allow thunderstorms to begin developing after 4 PM along and just north of the stationary front. Effective bulk shear in excess of 45 kts should lead to supercells initially with the potential for very large hail (potentially to tennis ball or baseball size), especially if they can remain discrete. Some tornado threat also exists with any storms anchored on the boundary. Convective coverage will increase further into the early evening as capping continues to erode. This will create a messier scenario when storms may congeal into clusters, reducing the large hail and tornado threats for the rest of the evening. The greatest threat for higher end severe should be contained within about 2 to 3 hours after initiation. Little activity is expected south of the front due to an EML with mid level lapse rates exceeding 8.5 C/km keeping the atmosphere capped. It should be noted the CAMs have shifted much farther south over the last 18 hours and now align closer to the AI guidance, which has proven superior over the last several months with consistency and identifying spatial details such as axes of precipitation. However, it remains to be seen precisely where the front will lay out with mesoscale details yet to play out. the front will resume its trek south behind the system tonight. Tuesday will be dry locally with robust thunderstorm development far to the southeast across Iowa and southern WI. Another shortwave will track northeast from the central Plains Wednesday. The front will return back to the north toward southeastern MN. Showers and thunderstorms will develop Wednesday afternoon and evening, with the greatest coverage from southern/eastern MN into WI. As that wave departs, another system developing over the northern Plains will push east Thursday and Friday. A warm and more humid airmass will return and a strong cold front will pass through during peak heating Friday. There is good model consistency with temporal and spatial features of this system. Thunderstorms should form on the front mid to late afternoon across eastern MN and WI. Mid level lapse rates around 9 C/km will keep the atmosphere capped until that time, but the strength of the cold front should allow the cap to break. A squall line is likely to form quickly after initiation, posing another severe risk through the early evening. Model consistency drops off beyond that point, primarily due to the handling of the mid level low Friday night and Saturday. ECMWF and CMC are much stronger and farther south with this feature, allowing post-frontal rain and snow to develop within a deformation band. The GFS and AI guidance, on the other hand, are weaker and farther north. This keeps the area dry, aside from maybe some flurries or snow showers on the southern fringes of moist cyclonic flow. Regardless which scenario plays out, colder air returns for next weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1203 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A somewhat complicated forecast due to potential TSRA from roughly 20-03z across the area combined with some potential IFR/LIFR visibility concerns post-FROPA after the TSRA is out of the area. Winds favor easterly/southeasterly ahead of the incoming TSRA, becoming light and variable after TSRA heads out of the area with speeds remaining 8kts or lower throughout. The confidence to include gusts within the prob30/TEMPO groups with TSRA was too low, however gusts are certainly a possibility with any TSRA that moves through, the magnitude is just uncertain. The key feature to watch will be the position of the warm front as that will directly relate to the best TSRA potential as well as the position of potential IFR CIGS during the period of TSRA. A period of IFR/LIFR is likely after the TSRA ends from roughly 06-15z depending on location due to low level fog/CIGS, which wraps up quickly after 14-15z. KMSP...Kept the previous TEMPO from 22-01z intact as this period is most likely to see TSRA, with a start time perhaps an hour earlier as far as the first storms to appear. Lingering -SHRA is less certain and could contain brief thunder, however the post TSRA period is less certain with guidance handling it in dramatically different ways. There is solid consensus for a 5-6 hour period of IFR due to fog after 08-09z, ending around 15z. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...MVFR/SHRA early, then VFR. Wind NE 5kts. THU...VFR, chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind N 5-10kts. FRI...MVFR/SHRA likely, chance -TSRA. Wind SE to SW 10-15G25kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Borghoff AVIATION...TDH  309 FXUS64 KMRX 131723 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 123 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 121 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 - A warming trend with above normal temperatures expected through this week. Record highs are possible. - There is very limited chances for light rain through the forecast period. This will result in worsening drought and fire weather conditions. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 121 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A large high pressure ridge will remain over FL/Gulf/western Atlantic through this forecast period, which will provide above normal temperatures and generally dry conditions to the Southern Appalachians and TN Valley. We are seeing a good amount of cloud cover today from a jet streak and shortwave trough passing by to our north, but once that passes to our east tonight, mostly sunny clear will return. High temps tomorrow will approach records for the date, with the same expected on Wednesday. Low RH values will be of concern for fire weather interests, bottoming out in the 25-35% range both days for most locations, but thankfully the SW winds will be mainly in the 5-15 mph range. With these lighter winds, we do not anticipate the need for any Fire Danger statements over the next few days. Models show the ridge drifting southward a bit on Thursday, allowing a mid/upper level trough and jet streak to cross the region. NBM has been trending higher with rain chances, which are now in the chance range north of I-40 Thursday afternoon and evening. Looking at the NAM forecast soundings Thursday afternoon, there is a strong stable and dry layer that will have to be overcome for any measureable precip, leading to skepticism of the NBM PoPs. Don't get your hopes up for any meaingful rainfall just yet. Highs will be pushing near records again on Friday and Saturday as the ridge amplifies northward again. Better rain chances may exist on Sunday as models show a deeper trough developing over the Plains that could push a cold front through our area. Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 04-14 87(2010) 86(1887) 85(1938) 88(2017) 04-15 87(2006) 87(1936) 85(1945) 86(2024) 04-16 89(2002) 87(1896) 87(2002) 88(2002) 04-17 91(1955) 90(1896) 85(2002) 88(1955) 04-18 90(2002) 90(1896) 87(2002) 89(2002) 04-19 91(2002) 90(1941) 90(1941) 90(2002) && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 121 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Gusty winds will be the main aviation impact through this afternoon, reaching around 25 kt. Winds will drop under 10 kt around 21-23Z, then increase again tomorrow around noon, with gusts to 20 kt possible. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 60 87 59 88 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 60 85 60 87 / 0 10 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 58 85 58 87 / 10 10 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 54 83 57 85 / 10 10 0 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...DGS AVIATION...DGS  296 FXUS63 KLSX 131723 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1223 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Well above normal temperatures are expected to persist at least through Friday. - Severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday night, and again Wednesday afternoon and evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats both days. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 339 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 The weather pattern continues to be controlled by a long wave trough over the western United Sates and a ridge over the east. This is producing deep southwest flow over the Mid Mississippi Valley resulting in well above normal temperatures. Forecast soundings show good mixing this afternoon to 850mb or slightly higher with temperatures in the 14-18C range. This mixes down to 81-88 surface temps which agrees well with traditional MAV/MET guidance as well as the deterministic NBM output. Insolation may be limited a bit by clouds so I tended to lean a little lower on that range. Some guidance members develop isolated showers today, mainly over northeast Missouri and west central Illinois. This looks to be in response to weak low level moisture convergence produced by a broad 30-40kt low level jet. Forecast soundings show a very strong inversion above the boundary layer, so deep convection doesn't look likely. However, low level lapse rates below the inversion are very steep and there is a small area of positive energy which could allow for some very shallow showers to develop. Have therefore kept slight chance in the forecast in northeast Missouri and west central Illinois today into the early evening. Mild temperatures will continue tonight due to continuing southwest flow with most locations only dipping into the mid to upper 60s. In fact, there's a chance that St. Louis and Columbia may have their first 70+ degree lows since last September 15th and August 19th respectively. Carney && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 339 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 The long wave trough over the western U.S. moves slowly east on Tuesday and Wednesday which forces low level cyclogenesis over the Great Plains. A dryline pushes ahead of the surface low into eastern Kansas and western Oklahoma Tuesday afternoon providing a focus for convective initiation. Current thinking is that thunderstorms will develop over north central Oklahoma or eastern Kansas and move northeastward off the dryline into Missouri during the evening. GFS and RAP show 3000+ J/Kg SBCAPE Tuesday afternoon extending into Missouri with 35-45kts of 0-6km shear for storms to utilize. However, the strong inversion remains in place over Missouri Tuesday afternoon/evening, and guidance suggests strong afternoon instability will decrease quickly in the evening. It is unclear whether storms which develop during the late afternoon will have enough steam...so to speak...to make it into our forecast area before weakening or even dissipating entirely. The GFS is very wet north of I-44 and west of I-55 Tuesday evening with its tendency for grid-scale convective feedback to carry precip longer than reality. The RAP is virtually dry in the same areas, and I tend to feel this is more realistic as there will be little if any mid- upper level support for convection over the Mid-Mississippi Valley. The bottom line is that IF storms can make it into central and northeast Missouri before the instability wanes during the evening, some will probably be severe, with damaging winds and large hail the most likely threats. However, I feel this threat is very conditional at this time. Wednesday/Wednesday night continues to look like the period which will have the best chance for convection. Mid-upper level support will be much more robust as the trough moves from the Plains into the Midwest. The surface reflection of the wave is forecast to move from eastern Nebraska Wednesday morning to west central Wisconsin by 06Z Thursday. This will push its associated weak cold front into northwest Missouri Wednesday afternoon. GFS and ECMWF are showing 2000+ J/Kg CAPE with 40-50kts 0-6km shear ahead of the front Wednesday afternoon before convective initiation. The convection reinforces the surface boundary and pushes into eastern Missouri and southwest Illinois Wednesday night. Upper level support from the eastward-moving trough should allow the storms to survive into the nighttime. However, like Tuesday evening, instability is forecast to diminish rapidly during the evening. As a result, confidence in the eastward extent of the severe threat is not high. Some showers may linger into Thursday morning as the tail end of the trough moves east of the Mid Mississippi Valley. Upper level ridging builds back over the area by Thursday afternoon, but southwest flow returns by Friday as another long wave trough digs across the Rockies. This late-wek trough looks much more progressive and higher amplitude than the first one with a stronger cold front. Precipitation chances ramp up again Friday afternoon through Saturday as the system sweeps through the Plains and Midwest. Guidance members differ on the timing of the FROPA through our area making the temperature forecast and severe threat a very low confidence forecast. Some of the slower solutions would keep Saturday's temperatures well above normal in the upper 70s to mid 80s ahead of the front, and the 90th percentile SBCAPE from the LREF approaches 2000 J/Kg. The faster solutions show a much cooler and cloudy day with highs only reaching the 60s. The front should be well southeast of the area by Sunday, with high pressure building into the Midwest and temperatures near to a few degrees below normal. Carney && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Gusty southwest winds will persist through the TAF period for most locations. Areas outside of central Missouri, northeast Missouri, and west-central Illinois may see a brief reprieve overnight with gusts falling below 20 kts. A southwesterly low-level jet will intensify tonight in our western and northern areas, but the threat of LLWS will depend on if gusts diminish at all in these areas. As mentioned previously, gusts are forecast to persist. However, if this changes then LLWS will be added to the TAFs for tonight. Jaja && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX  883 FXUS64 KMEG 131724 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1224 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1223 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 - Dry and warm conditions will return Tuesday, followed by a gradual warming trend through late week. By Friday, near record high temperatures are expected. - A passing upper level disturbance and weak surface cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms on Thursday, mainly to areas along and north of Interstate 40. - Following a hot and dry day on Friday, rain chances will return late Saturday, associated with the passage of a cold front. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Sunday) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A fairly static upper air pattern will prevail over the CONUS this week, characterized by an anonymously strong ridge over the Gulf and the Southeast, and negative upper height anomalies over the intermountain west. Through Wednesday, the primary storm track will extend between these two regions, from Texas into the Upper Midwest. By Wednesday night, height falls will begin impinging over the Ozarks, associated with an upper trough lifting through the central Great Plains. Medium range guidance depicts this upper trough deepening as it lifts to the Ohio River Valley by midday Thursday. This feature will bring midlevel height falls to the Midsouth, along with an increase of 0-6km bulk shear to 45 knots to the north of I-40. While depicted kinematics appear supportive of severe storms, the morning timing of height falls and surface boundary passage cast uncertainty on the amount of instability and resultant severe weather threat. Timing may evolve in future model runs, but at this time, the 00Z LREF showed good inter- member timing agreement. A deepening longwave trough will move to the northern and central Rockies on Friday, accompanied by downstream amplification of the upper ridge over the Gulf. Friday will likely be the warmest day of the week, with a high of 90 in Memphis - 1 degree shy of the record set in 2006. The western U.S. upper trough will lift into the Upper Midwest on Saturday. The northerly track notwithstanding, this feature will bring height falls to the Midsouth that are sufficient to drive a surface cold frontal passage. A pre-frontal maritime tropical airmass will provide PWATs between 1.5-1.75 inches - above the 90th percentile for April. Given the expected progressive nature of the front, QPF is currently expected to be less than an inch and certainly not a drought-breaker. A cool and dry day is forecast for Sunday, with highs 3 to 5 degrees below normal. Thereafter, the upper ridge over the Gulf will amplify, ahead of another potential deep upper low over the western U.S. The early part of next week appears warm and humid. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Elevated, as occasionally gusting, south/southwest winds continue as the airspace is situated between high pressure to the southeast and troughing to the west. This favors a mostly VFR regime, but a few brief periods of high MVFR ceilings (between 2500-3000ft) cannot be ruled out for the remaining hours of the afternoon at MKL and TUP. Confidence continues to decrease in late afternoon/early evening shower chances, and even lower confidence in any thunderstorm development. The latest CAMs continue to further isolate coverage later on warranting some prob30 removals. MEM and MKL have the highest chances of seeing a stray shower this evening. Winds may become gusty again as early as overnight, but soundings are showing a nice inversion, and confidence is low in any elevated winds mixing down to the surface. Once the inversion erodes after sunrise, gusty southerly winds and VFR conditions will prevail. DNM && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1223 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Well above normal temperatures will result in minimum relative humidity in the 30 to 40 percent range Tuesday and Wednesday. A weak wind shift will accompany clouds and scattered thunderstorms Thursday. Wetting rainfall will be most likely to occur north of the I-40 corridor. Low minimum relative humidity will return on Friday, as temperatures warm to near 90 degrees. Wetting rainfall chances return late Saturday, associated with a cold frontal passage. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB AVIATION...DNM  314 FXUS66 KMFR 131724 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1024 AM PDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New Aviation Section... .AVIATION (18Z TAFs)... Ceilings are expected to maintain MVFR (or close to it) for the majority of this cycle. Lingering showers today may intermittently impact the terminals with very light rainfall. A frontal passage is expected tomorrow with more widespread rainfall, and this will likely be reflected in subsequent TAF cycles. Otherwise, expecting generally light wind speeds this cycle, but KLMT may see occasional breezy conditions this afternoon. -Guerrero && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 639 AM PDT Mon Apr 13 2026/ ..Updated AVIATION discussion for 12Z TAFs... DISCUSSION...An upper level trough moves eastward out of the area today, but some incoming shortwave troughs will keep precipitation chances at 40-60% west of and along the Cascades into this afternoon. Snow levels look to remain in the 5000-6000 foot range, but forecast precipitation amounts are light. Higher terrain along and east of the Cascades might see an inch or two of snowfall. Any rainfall to the west looks to be measured in the hundreths of an inch at most. This scattered activity should dissipate by the evening hours. A shortwave ridge will bring daytime temperatures up a few degrees on Tuesday afternoon before a cold front arrives Tuesday night, bringing precipitation into the day Wednesday. The highest rainfall amounts look to be along the coast, where 1 to 1.5 inches are possible through the day Wednesday. The heaviest rainfall along the coast could be on Wednesday morning, which may add some difficulty to morning commutes. Inland west side areas will also see light to moderate rainfall. With the current forecast having snow levels at 4000-4500 feet during this wave of precipitation, the Cascades looks to see periods of moderate to heavy snowfall on Wednesday morning and afternoon. Snowfall rates of between half an inch to an inch are possible. A Winter Storm Watch is in place for parts of the Cascades north of Crater Lake and above 5000 feet to highlight possibly hazardous conditions in these areas on Wednesday into Thursday. Other mountain areas look to see a few inches of snowfall as well. Gusty winds over elevated terrain and especially along and east of the Cascades are also expected as an upper trough follows the cold front. Winds along places like Winter Rim and along the Warner Mountains could have Advisory-level gusts on Wednesday morning and afternoon before speeds decrease into the evening. Snow levels drop to 1500-2000 feet Wednesday night into Thursday morning, but lower elevation snowfall is not a concern as precipitation will decrease quickly into Wednesday evening. Frost and freeze conditions may return to west side valleys on both Wednesday night into Thursday and Thursday night into Friday. A warm, dry period looks possible on Friday and Saturday as an upper ridge moves over the area. Another period of active weather is showing up in long-term deterministic imagery, as both ECMWF and GFS models have a low pressure system approaching the area on Sunday. There's noticeable differences in timing and behavior between the models, so stay tuned for additional details as this possible future activity becomes more clear. -TAD AVIATION...13/12Z TAFs...Cloud cover across northern California and southern Oregon is bringing VFR and MVFR ceilings across the area. Showers are light and isolated on radar, and are expected to continue that way through the morning. Showers should be largely absent by the end of the TAF period, with a general mixture of VFR and MVFR continuing into early Tuesday morning. Some west side valleys may see lower ceilings or patchy fog. -TAD MARINE...Updated 100 AM PDT Monday, April 13, 2026...Activity eases as a low pressure system moves to the east. Winds and short period northwest swell will support seas staying seas below advisory level through Tuesday morning. Steep seas are possible beginning Tuesday afternoon as a stronger front passes through the region. The front will bring increasing southwest winds as it moves across the waters Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Localized areas of very steep and hazardous seas may be possible north of Coos Bay. Unsettled seas may continue behind the Tuesday-Wednesday front. A thermal trough may bring gusty northerly winds south of Cape Blanco later in the week, and another active system is in the forecast into the weekend. -TAD && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday evening through late Wednesday night for ORZ027. CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None. && $$  855 FXUS65 KPIH 131724 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 1124 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Sharp Cooling Trend: Afternoon highs will drop into the 50s on Monday, with a much more significant plunge into the 40s arriving by Thursday. - Impactful Mountain Snow: Snow levels drop to 5,000–5,500 feet Monday, bringing 2 to 5 inches to Galena Summit and several inches to the Eastern Highlands. - Potent Midweek Storm: A robust system arrives Wednesday, bringing widespread moisture, gusty winds and eventually light valley snow - Slow Weekend Recovery: Expect a slow trend toward drier and warmer conditions by Sunday, though mountain showers may linger through Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 150 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 As the slow-moving low pressure system currently impacting the region shifts toward central Idaho, we are entering a transition toward a much cooler and more unsettled regime for the week ahead. A cold front associated with this system will clear the area by Monday morning, effectively suppressing afternoon highs into the low to mid 50s for most valley locations. Along with this cooler air mass, precipitation will begin to focus more heavily on the higher terrain. Snow levels are progged to fall between 5,000 and 5,500 feet on Monday, resulting in fresh accumulations for our mountain passes and the Stanley Basin. Specifically, Galena Summit is on track for 2 to 5 inches of new snow, while Emigration Summit could see 2 to 4 inches through tomorrow night. While high-resolution model guidance keeps the bulk of the precipitation focused across the central mountains and eastern highlands today, there is a lingering potential for scattered showers across the Snake Plain and Magic Valley. Much like the past few days, a stray thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, potentially bringing localized gusty winds. A brief reprieve in activity arrives Tuesday as the current system departs to the east, though isolated showers will likely linger across the Eastern Highlands. This break will be short-lived, however, as a secondary, more potent weather system begins to push into the Central Mountains as early as Wednesday morning. This midweek system looks to be a significant moisture producer for the entire forecast area, with precipitation chances increasing from west to east throughout the day. Wednesday will likely be the windiest day of the period, particularly across the upper Snake River Plain, where forecast gusts are already trending toward the 40–45 mph range. A Wind Advisory may eventually be necessary for several zones during the afternoon hours. By Thursday, a much colder, polar air mass will settle over Eastern Idaho, dropping afternoon highs into the low to mid 40s—a nearly 15-degree drop from Wednesday’s values. Breezy conditions will persist with widespread gusts of 30 to 40 mph, adding a significant raw chill to the damp conditions. With these plummeting temperatures, it is increasingly likely that rain will transition to snow even at valley floors during the early morning hours of Thursday and Friday. While valley accumulations should remain light (an inch or less), more impactful snow is expected for the higher terrain, and Winter Weather headlines may be required for the mountains in the coming days. Looking ahead to the weekend, ensemble guidance suggests the cold upper-level trough will finally begin to exit the region. While high pressure may start to build by Saturday, residual moisture and cold air aloft could keep isolated mountain showers in the forecast through the first half of the weekend. Temperatures should begin a slow recovery toward seasonal averages by Sunday. However, confidence remains low regarding the long-term outlook, as the next potential disturbance could arrive as early as the first part of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1121 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Pockets of rain or snow will persist into this evening especially impacting SUN and DIJ. We are maintaining VCSH for the most part, and amending as needed for showers actually impacting a particular airport with MVFR to IFR weather. For tonight and tomorrow morning, it does look like more widespread MVFR to IFR conditions for low clouds. We did include that in this set of forecasts. At SUN, this should not be an issue with a strong enough downvalley wind...but certainly worth watching a bit more closely as it may not take much for it to resurge back into the Wood River Valley. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...McKaughan AVIATION...Keyes  513 FXUS62 KFFC 131725 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 125 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New 18Z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 115 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 - Fire weather concerns will persist this week given the ongoing very dry and warm conditions. A Red Flag Warning is in effect across far north Georgia with a Fire Danger Statement to the south. - Temperatures will remain well above normal through next week. A few locations could approach daily record highs by mid-week. - With little chance of appreciable rainfall over the next 7 days drought conditions are expected to worsen. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 237 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 An expansive high pressure regime will dominate the short term pattern and continue through much of this week. A persistent ridge will remain over the central Gulf and extend northeast towards the mid-Atlantic coast. Expansive surface high pressure under this ridge will overspread the western Atlantic and much of the Southeast CONUS. With no change in this pattern, dry and anomalously warm conditions will continue. Southwesterly winds on the back side of the high will increase to about 8-12 mph this afternoon, with gusts as high as 20-25 mph in far north Georgia. A weakening frontal boundary moving across the Mississippi River Valley will spread increased upper level clouds into the area today, but the high pressure pattern will keep any precipitation from reaching Georgia. Low temperatures this morning will begin in the mid to upper 50s across the forecast area. Highs will be somewhat limited by the cloud cover but will range from 6-10 degrees above normal in central Georgia and 9-13 degrees above normal in north Georgia, rising into the low to mid 80s. Temperatures will a few degrees higher on Tuesday, rising into the mid to upper 80s and approaching 90 in east- central Georgia. A Red Flag Warning is in effect across far north Georgia this afternoon, with a Fire Danger Statement to the south and across the remainder of the CWA. For more details, please refer to the Fire Weather section below... && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 237 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Warm and dry conditions will continue through Friday next week with high pressure and ridging dominating the area. Multiple impulses attempting to push into the area to the west, but ultimately failing to push past the ridging and high pressure over our area. Rain chances will remain at <10% through at least Friday this week. With the above mentioned conditions and already dry fuels as well as the ongoing drought, critical fire weather conditions are expected to continue through the end of the week with RHs already at 25-30% or less and no rain in sight. Another thing to consider will be temperatures with sites likely to either tie or break records by the end of the week as temps reach into the upper 80s to low 90s across the area. There are some indications that portions of central Georgia could reach into the mid 90s by Saturday as well. Pushing into the weekend there seems to be models hinting at a low pressure system tracking eastward that may be able to push in some rain chances into NW GA as the ridge looks to maybe break down. This is at 7-8 days out so would prefer waiting to see as we get closer to see if this pattern sticks around. Otherwise warm and dry conditions continue through the next 7 days. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 115 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 VFR conditions will persist with primarily BKN high cirrus today with FEW/SCT cu 5-7 kft possible through 00Z. FEW/SCT high cirrus will be possible thereafter. Winds will remain SW through the period, 6-10 kts during the afternoons, 5 kts or less overnight. //ATL Confidence...18Z Update... High confidence. RW && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 83 56 87 58 / 0 0 0 0 Atlanta 83 60 86 61 / 0 0 0 0 Blairsville 78 54 82 54 / 0 0 0 0 Cartersville 84 58 87 57 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 84 56 87 57 / 0 0 0 0 Gainesville 82 59 86 60 / 0 0 0 0 Macon 84 56 87 57 / 0 0 0 0 Rome 85 57 87 57 / 0 0 0 0 Peachtree City 83 56 86 56 / 0 0 0 0 Vidalia 85 58 89 60 / 0 0 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ001>009- 011>016-019>021-030. && $$ SHORT TERM...King LONG TERM....Hernandez AVIATION...RW  207 FXUS66 KPDT 131725 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 1025 AM PDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - An upper low will bring widespread lower elevation rain and mountain snow chances across the region late Tuesday through Wednesday - Temperatures will drop to 5 to 10 degrees below normal Wednesday and Thursday, with overnight lows in the mid 20s to mid 30s - Drier conditions return late in the work week, but light precip chances develop across the area over the weekend && .DISCUSSION... Today through Tuesday Morning: Radar and satellite imagery tonight show an upper low centered over central ID with an associated deformation band over northeast OR and southeast WA. The upper low and it's associated deformation band will continue to shift east today in response to a shortwave diving across the PacNW. This will result in low elevation precipitation tapering off by this afternoon, with only mountain showers continuing through the evening. Cold air advection with the shortwave passage will also result in a tightening of the cross-Cascade pressure gradient, resulting in breezy winds 15-25mph and gusts up to 40mph developing through the Cascade gaps and portions of the Columbia Basin and Blue mountain foothills. Strongest winds are expected to develop through the Kittitas valley, with a 50-65% chance of gusts exceeding 45mph late this morning through the afternoon. Later this evening, the shortwave will exit to the southeast of the forecast area, resulting in shower chances retreating to the Cascade crest under a westerly flow aloft. Winds will lighten as the cross-Cascade pressure gradient also weakens with the departure of the shortwave, though breezy conditions are expected to remain through the Cascade gap areas. Light Cascade crest showers with locally breezy conditions will continue into Tuesday. Tuesday Afternoon through Thursday: A strong upper low with a leading cold front dropping out of the Gulf of Alaska will move across the PacNW, bringing with it widespread rain and mountain snow chances (confidence 80-85%). The best precipitation chances in the lower elevations will be associated with the cold front passage Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon, with chances tapering off late Wednesday through Thursday. The upper low and cold front will bring a much colder airmass to the region, resulting in snow levels steadily dropping to between 1.5kft to 2kft by Wednesday evening, limiting light snow impacts to central OR by Wednesday evening. Otherwise, moderate to locally heavy snow showers will develop across the Cascade crest and the northern Blues Tuesday night through Thursday. Over a 48-hr period ending Thursday afternoon, Snoqualmie pass, White pass, and the northern Blues above 4.5kft will see a 65-80% chance of snow accumulations over 6 inches. Further south, Santiam pass is expected to see the heaviest snow accumulations, with >90% chance of accumulations exceeding 10 inches through Thursday. For now, a Winter Storm Watch was issued for the OR Cascade east slopes above 4kft. Breezy winds will continue to impact the region through the midweek as the cold front passage and continued cold air advection into the forecast area result in tightened pressure gradients. Confidence is moderate-high that westerly winds will remain between 15-25mph and gusts 25-40mph through the midweek. Otherwise, temperatures will drop to between 5 to 10 degrees below normal by Wednesday and Thursday. This will result in morning lows in the mid 20s to mid 30s across the lower to mid elevation areas in the forecast area. Of particular concern are the Kittitas and Yakima valleys, where there is 65-85% chance of morning lows below freezing Thursday morning. Friday through the Weekend: Ensemble guidance is in good agreement of upper level ridging sliding across the PacNW with dry conditions and light winds by Friday (confidence 55-65%). The forecast area will remain under the influence of the ridge through Saturday afternoon, but disagreement grows in timing and strength of the next low pressure system arriving to the PacNW. while most solutions favor light rain and high mountain snow returning the region Saturday night through Sunday, some solutions (~29% of ensemble cluster members) favor more moderate snow/precip accumulations through Sunday afternoon. Lawhorn/82 && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... VFR conditions are expected through Tuesday. The main aviation concern will be strong west to northwest winds that will gust in the 20 to 30 kt range with some locations possibly as high as 35 kts. Breezy winds are expected over the next few days. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 57 36 59 42 / 50 0 10 60 ALW 58 40 58 44 / 80 0 20 80 PSC 67 40 61 45 / 20 0 20 30 YKM 63 36 58 38 / 10 0 20 60 HRI 62 39 61 43 / 10 0 10 30 ELN 56 36 52 33 / 10 0 40 60 RDM 54 27 56 35 / 20 0 10 40 LGD 53 32 57 40 / 90 20 10 100 GCD 52 30 58 38 / 80 30 10 70 DLS 60 41 58 42 / 10 0 30 80 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 11 PM PDT Wednesday for WAZ522. OR...Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM Tuesday to 5 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ509. && $$ DISCUSSION...82 AVIATION...77  523 FXUS61 KBOX 131725 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 125 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Summerlike warmth Tue and Wed away from the coast with scattered thunderstorms and a low risk of severe weather. - Backdoor front may bring cooler temperatures Thu-Sat, especially in eastern MA, but uncertainty is high in exactly where it ends up. - More seasonable temperatures early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Summerlike warmth Tue and Wed away from the coast with scattered thunderstorms and a low risk of severe weather. Confidence remains high in summerlike warmth Tue and Wed away from both coasts as a strong upper level ridge builds over region from Gulf. Highs both days should easily reach lower 80s inland while onshore flow keeps immediate coastal areas in 50s to around 60. We also need to watch a backdoor front lurking close to northeast MA which could bring cooler temperatures there as well, perhaps into the 40s or lower 50s, but right now it seems like that front should stay to the north until sometime Wed night or Thu. One thing we are monitoring is the potential for severe storms during afternoon and evening both Tue and Wed, mainly from 2 PM to 10 PM. Trough axis near eastern Great Lakes should provide sufficient lift to generate scattered showers and thunderstorms to our west both days, and some of this activity could survive the trip into interior southern New England given warm airmass in place and more importantly strong westerly flow aloft. Tue actually looks to be the more interesting day with greatest potential for severe storms roughly along and west of I-91. Guidance shows decent instability (1000-1500 J/kg) Tue afternoon along with rather impressive mid level lapse rates (6-7 C/km) that we don't see too often here and sufficient 0-6km shear of 35-40kt. This may be enough to bring storms into southern New England during the afternoon and evening with localized wind damage and hail being the main threats. Note both 3km NAM and RRFS are fairly aggressive in depicting a small line of storms moving SE across interior Tue afternoon, though HREF updraft helicities are focused more in western New England and lightning probabilities are in that area as well. However, CSU machine learning guidance does highlight much of interior southern New England with a low severe potential. Environment still looks favorable for thunderstorms on Wed though several of the high-res models don't show much in way of activity. CSU and SPC HREF expand the low severe risk into more of southern New England, with guidance showing decent instability across more of southern New England (focused north and west of I-95 in CT, RI, and MA) with continued strong 0-6km shear (40-50kt) and better low level moisture (dewpoints into lower 60s). Mid level lapse rates are more marginal however (5-6 C/km) but that could be overcome with sufficient instability. While overall severe threat remains low (and higher to west of New England) we can't rule out a few storms capable of producing localized wind damage or hail. KEY MESSAGE 2...Backdoor front may bring cooler temperatures Thu- Sat, especially in eastern MA, but uncertainty is high in exactly where is ends up. Forecast becomes more uncertain later this week as we deal with another backdoor front potentially dropping south across New England. Details will need to be worked out regarding how far south and exactly how quickly the front will be able to push southward. Typically these fronts end up somewhere from central MA into RI, with summerlike temperatures continuing to its south (Hartford) and much cooler temperatures to the north and east. For now we are basing forecast on a model blend which helps iron out some of the uncertainty, but getting more into time window for higher resolution models will help refine forecast in coming days. Certainly potential for big temperature busts this far out in time. KEY MESSAGE 3...More seasonable temperatures early next week. A stronger cold front is expected to cross region sometime Sun, accompanied by some showers. Much cooler airmass follows behind front early next week with temperatures returning to more typical levels for mid April, generally in 50s to around 60. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 18z TAF Update: High confidence. MVFR ceilings slowly improve to VFR this afternoon along with a few widely scattered showers. Exception is near Cape Cod and Islands where IFR conditions are more likely and will persist through late tonight or early Tue morning. Main concern into the evening is strong SW winds, gusting to 25-35kt along with LLWS due to 020 winds 230/50-60kt. VFR Tue with lighter S/SW winds and coastal sea breezes. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and evening, especially across interior southern New England. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/... Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. High confidence through the end of the week. Fairly strong low level jet will bring frequent 30kt gusts to the waters through the evening with some 35kt gusts likely around Cape Cod and Islands. Maintaining current headlines of SCA and Gale Warnings as a result. Winds and seas gradually diminish tonight and especially Tue and Wed when local sea breezes are expected near shore. The other concern is for areas of fog developing this afternoon and persisting early tonight on south coastal waters due to mild SW winds over colder ocean waters. Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/... Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. Thursday through Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. && .CLIMATE... Upcoming record highs: Tue 4/14 Boston 83 in 2023 Hartford 96 in 2023 Providence 87 in 2023 Worcester 90 in 2023 Wed 4/15 Boston 82 in 1896 Hartford 88 in 1941 Providence 82 in 1938 Worcester 85 in 1941 && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ230- 236. Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ231>234. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ235-237. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ250-251. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ254>256. && $$ DISCUSSION...JWD AVIATION...JWD MARINE...JWD CLIMATE...JWD  270 FXUS64 KMAF 131727 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1227 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1224 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 - Low shower/storm chances (10-20%) today and medium chances (30-60%) Tuesday across the far eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. Damaging winds and large hail remain the primary hazards for the strongest storms. - Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions are expected across southeast New Mexico, the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains, and portions of far west Texas today through at least Wednesday. - Windy conditions expected in the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains today through Tuesday evening. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 329 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A large upper-level trough begins to dig into the southwestern CONUS this afternoon, leaving southeast New Mexico and west Texas under southwest flow aloft. The associated jet streak ahead of this feature begins to move over southeast New Mexico. Meanwhile, southwesterly downslope flow at/near the surface brings drier air into this region, providing steep lapse rates at the lower and middle levels of the troposphere. Not surprisingly, forecast soundings show inverted-V profiles extending up to 600mb. This yields windy conditions in the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains Monday afternoon as momentum is allowed to be transfered to the surface. Breezy conditions can also be seen across the adjacent southeast New Mexico Plains, Davis Mountain Foothills, and Permian Basin with the aid of surface troughing behind the dryline. The dryline is expected to set up across the eastern Permian Basin and extend south through the Lower Trans-Pecos/Big Bend region, providing a source of mesoscale forcing ahead of it. Sufficient instability, moisture, and shear yields a low (10-20%) chance of isolated showers/storms across the Lower Trans-Pecos (including Pecos and Terrel Counties), one or two of which could be strong to severe. The main hazards would be damaging winds and large hail. Should any storms develop, they would quickly move east of our CWA. By Tuesday, the aforementioned upper-level trough continues to track east towards our region, with its associated jet streak expanding and strengthening over southeast New Mexico and west Texas. Meanwhile, the dryline remains situated in the same location as today. Deep mixing west of the dryline will again transfer mid-level momentum to the surface, bringing windy conditions to the same locations Tuesday afternoon. Winds are forecast to reach high wind criteria during this timeframe, prompting us to issue a High Wind Watch for the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains (including the Carlsbad Caverns National Park). Breezy conditions can be expected elsewhere. We are also looking out for fire weather potential Tuesday afternoon across portions of southeast New Mexico (particularly Lea and Chavez Counties) as breezy conditions coupled with drier air and fuels are forecast (see Fire Weather Discussion below for additional details). As such, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for these areas from the early afternoon through early evening on Tuesday. Given stronger large-scale forcing ahead of the dryline, chances (20-50%, up to 60%) of showers and thunderstorms increase across the eastern Permian Basin/Lower Trans-Pecos Tuesday afternoon. A couple of which could become strong to severe once again, with damaging winds and large hail being the main hazards. Shower and thunderstorm chances continue into the evening hours (see Long Term Discussion Below for more details). Greening && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 329 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Southwesterly flow aloft will continue to be prevalent over the region Tuesday night into Wednesday as an upper-level storm system moves across the Rockies. At the surface, a Pacific front arrives in the region Tuesday evening. Medium range guidance has the dryline retrograding further to the west during this time. Both of these features increase the chance for isolated to scattered storms to develop across the eastern half of the forecast area. A few of these storms may become strong to severe where the main threats with the strongest storms will be damaging winds and large hail. Wednesday, long-range guidance has the base of the aforementioned trough passing over the region. Winds are expected to not be as strong compared with Monday and Tuesday, however, breezy conditions are anticipated for similar areas. This will also keep elevated to near- critical fire weather conditions over these locations being on the western periphery of the dryline. The Pacific front looks to slightly cool temperatures on Wednesday with highs ranging from the mid 70s to mid 80s for most locations. Thursday and Friday, subtle upper-level ridging looks to take shape, allowing warmer temperatures in the 80s to low 90s for most. Guidance also has lee cyclogenesis occurring across the Rockies which will provide more breezy conditions both days. Winds increase on Friday as another upper-level storm system approaches, while the surface low lee of the Rockies strengthens. This will once again bring near-critical to critical fire weather concerns across southeast New Mexico and potentially high winds over the Guadalupe Mountains. Guidance shows a cold front sweeping through Friday night into Saturday, supplying cooler conditions throughout the weekend (mid 60s and 70s for most). This front may also provide some rain chances over our eastern portions as it pushes in. Of course, these impacts will depend on exact timing and strength of the cold front. Stay tuned for updates! && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 VFR conditions prevail. Gusty southwesterly winds continue at CNM and HOB until around sunset before diminishing. Elsewhere, southwesterly winds generally between 10-15 kts are expected, with occasional light gusts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1224 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Fire weather conditions begin to increase today especially for areas across southeast New Mexico and far west Texas. Critical MinRHs and breezy to gusty winds are expected over these areas. Cloud cover throughout the morning and afternoon hours may mitigate fire weather concerns, however, coverage is expected to be scattered and thin. Fire weather conditions increase Tuesday as stronger winds and similar MinRHs are expected. Increased cloud cover may mitigate this threat once again and prevent ignition. Most of these areas received little rainfall Saturday (0.01-0.1" generally) so fuels will remain relatively dry early this week promoting the increase of fire weather conditions. Fuels will continue to cure throughout the week over western portions of the forecast area. Another upper-level storm system approaches the region beginning on Thursday. Strong westerly winds with very low MinRHs look to result in critical fire weather conditions for similar areas on Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 89 64 87 61 / 0 20 40 50 Carlsbad 85 58 84 52 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 87 65 84 63 / 20 40 50 50 Fort Stockton 88 61 87 62 / 10 20 30 40 Guadalupe Pass 75 56 74 51 / 0 10 0 0 Hobbs 85 56 84 53 / 0 10 0 10 Marfa 80 49 79 49 / 10 10 10 10 Midland Intl Airport 87 64 87 62 / 0 20 30 40 Odessa 86 64 86 62 / 0 20 20 40 Wink 88 60 87 57 / 0 10 10 20 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. NM...High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for Chaves Plains-Lea. && $$ SHORT TERM...55 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...13  344 FXUS63 KUNR 131730 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 1130 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... -Mild through Thursday -Dry most places outside of NW SD today through Wed -Critical fire weather conditions, mainly along and south of I90 today, and again possibly Wednesday and especially Thursday -Much colder and unsettled for the end of the week with rain and snow possible by Friday for parts of the area && .DISCUSSION...(This Afternoon Through Sunday) Issued at 1055 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Central Rockies upper trough will continue to shift east with another stronger trough dropping into the Pac NW. This will support warm and mainly dry weather through most of Thur. Dry SW flow is ongoing across the southern half of the FA. Rockies trough will semi-split with the northern portion supporting a few showers and isolated TS across the far NW this afternoon/evening. However, the rest of the FA will remain dry. Compact jetlet, associated enhanced bulk shear and marginal CAPE may support an isolated strong storm on the southern flank of expected convection today, with small hail and gusty winds. Cool front starts to progress east into the area tonight. The southern portion of the trough will shift east Tues, barely skirting the southeast third of the FA, with maybe a shower or two in southwest to scentral SD. Enough instability may be present over the BH to also support a few showers there with diurnal heating. Shower chances will linger into Wed across scentral SD, as the trough moves fairly slow across the Central Plains. Mild weather will continue through Thur as WAA ensues ahead of the next upper trough Wed, which will advect SE in westerly flow out of the Pac NW. This system will force a strong cold front into the region Thur, with strong CAA and wind expected. However, this trough will split, with limited precip amounts outside of perhaps northeast WY and maybe far SW SD, effectively leaving much of western SD with little to no precip. After a couple days below normal, things quickly then warm back up next week as the next trough drops into the western CONUS and WAA spreads to its east. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Tuesday) Issued At 1128 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. This afternoon, thunderstorms will be possible across northeast WY into northwest SD, moving east of the area by 02Z. Hail and strong winds are possible with the thunderstorms, and brief MVFR conditions may be possible in heavier precipitation. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued At 1055 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Gusty southwest winds, extremely dry air, and lack of appreciable green up will support critical fire weather conditions this afternoon mainly along and south of I90. A red flag warning remains in effect into this evening. The most critical areas will be in SW SD where RH will drop to 10 percent with winds gusting to around 45 mph in the afternoon. A cool front will drop into the area tonight with winds diminishing and RH's recovering. Mild on Tue and Wed as an upper level trough skirts south of the area. However, low RH and breezy winds may support critical fire weather conditions once again on Wed and especially Thur in the same locations. A strong cold front will move into the region Thur, with chances for rain and snow Friday, mainly across northeast WY. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening for SDZ320>322-324>326-329-331>335. WY...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for WYZ315-317. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC AVIATION...Dye FIRE WEATHER...JC  808 FXUS65 KBOU 131732 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1132 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Critical fire weather conditions again today over the southern portions of the forecast area and the plains near the Wyoming border. - The next system will bring cooler temperatures and a decent chance of precipitation to the forecast area Tuesday into early Wednesday. A few inches of snow for the higher mountains with slick travel possible over the higher passes mainly at night. - Another storm system is possible for the forecast area Thursday night into Saturday. && .DISCUSSION /Through Sunday/... Issued at 1157 PM MDT Sun Apr 12 2026 Satellite pictures are showing mainly upper level cloudiness moving northeastward across Colorado in southwesterly flow aloft. Fairly weak low level drainage winds were in place across the most of CWA late this evening. High temperatures reached the mid 70s to lower 80s across the plains Sunday afternoon, with current readings in the upper 40s and 50s. Models continue to show increasing southwesterly flow aloft for the CWA overnight through Tuesday with jet level speeds getting into the 85 to 110 knot range Monday afternoon through early Tuesday afternoon. Speeds decrease later Tuesday afternoon as an upper trough pushes eastward across the forecast area through mid morning Wednesday. There is fairly strong upward synoptic scale energy with the trough on the QG Omega fields late Monday night through Tuesday morning. Thickness grids now show the main cold front to move across the CWA Tuesday afternoon and evening. On Wednesday, there is weak upper ridging over the CWA, then it's back to southwesterly flow aloft on Thursday ahead of the next system on Friday. There isn't much in the way of synoptic scale energy both Wednesday and Thursday. There is some mid and upper level moisture around on Monday, then deeper moisture associated with the trough is expected to get into the western half of the CWA later Monday night into Tuesday morning. The better moisture finally gets into the eastern half of the forecast area later Tuesday afternoon and evening. Moisture lingers over the mountains into Wednesday morning. Will leave the high pops in the mountains (70-90%s) Tuesday and Tuesday evening. As it still looks pretty warm Tuesday, the freezing level remains fairly high and alpine snowfall amounts and impacts do not look significant enough for highlights at this time. Neighboring office concur. Over the plains will go with 30-70% pops Tuesday afternoon and night. Of note, it still looks like much of the forecast area will see measurable precipitation Tuesday into Wednesday, albeit not significant amounts. Moisture is pretty lean the rest of Wednesday into Thursday morning, then some upper level moisture pushes in Thursday afternoon. For temperatures, highs will continue to be above seasonal normals on Monday with low to mid 70s for the plains. Tuesday's highs now look to be in the upper 50s to upper 60s, with mid 60s to lower 70s Wednesday. and back into the 70s on Thursday. For the later days, Friday through Monday, models are still showing a substantial upper level trough to move across Colorado Friday into Saturday. There is still a cold front with upslope flow over the plains as well as measurable precipitation on the QPF fields. However, it does not look as strong as it did on yesterday's models at this current time. As there are still many model runs to come between now and Friday, it will continue bear watching. Upper ridging moves in late Saturday continuing through Sunday night with southwesterly flow aloft by Monday. The airmass looks pretty dry Saturday through Monday. Temperatures should be below seasonal normals Friday and Saturday, then warm up Sunday and Monday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday/... Issued at 1132 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 VFR to prevail through the TAF period. Wind forecast will be challenging through tonight and into Tuesday. Channels of gusty west winds to 25 knots are expected to the north and south of the Denver area. In between, wind eddies (circulations) will create periods of variable winds. Thus confidence will be low. On Tuesday, northeast winds will prevail during the morning hours, possibly turning east to northeast late morning and afternoon. A wind shift to the northwest is expected 20-21Z Tuesday as showers roll off the foothills. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1157 PM MDT Sun Apr 12 2026 We went with another Red Flag Warning on Monday afternoon for all the southern CWA border zones and for the north central border plains Zones along the Cheyenne Ridge. Fire weather conditions will be critical with humidity levels ranging from 9-16% by afternoon along with winds gusting up to 30 mph. Fuels remain extremely dry in these areas. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ214-216-238- 241-242-246-247. && $$ DISCUSSION...66 AVIATION...12 FIRE WEATHER...66  573 FXUS65 KABQ 131732 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1132 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1118 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 - Gusty southwest to west winds are forecast today and will increase some Tuesday, with a moderate chance (60-70%) of exceeding advisory criteria across northeast and east central NM. Gusty southwest to west winds will return on Thursday and Friday. Hazardous crosswinds will create difficult travel for large and high-profile vehicles. - Areas of critical fire weather conditions return today and Tuesday across eastern and portions of central New Mexico. Critical fire weather conditions are more likely toward the end of the week across central and eastern areas with continued drying. - Gusty virga showers and a dry storm or two will create localized gusty outflow winds in central and northern New Mexico this afternoon. Low potential for new fire starts in receptive fuels. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1217 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Southwest flow aloft will trend up ahead of an approaching upper level low, currently moving southeast over northern NV/CA per the latest water vapor satellite imagery. Pacific moisture advection is already resulting in multiple cloud layers across the area and showers are forecast to develop later today across western NM as the upper low approaches Las Vegas, NV. Showers will favor strong/erratic wind gusts this afternoon vs wetting (>0.10") rainfall given weak forcing and a fairly dry lower boundary layer. Gusty southwest wind are forecast to develop today, especially across northeast NM where a deepening lee side trough will boost speeds. Moistening of the atmosphere will continue across western NM overnight as the upper low moves east toward the Four Corners, providing sufficient forcing for showers and a few thunderstorms favoring the western mountains and the Four Corners area. A couple to a few inches of snow are likely across the higher terrain of the west central and northwest mountains overnight into Tuesday, but impacts will be minimal and relegated to non- populated areas. The upper low will pull northeast over CO on Tuesday and drag a Pacific cold front across our area late day, bringing gusty west and southwest winds. The strongest winds on Tuesday will be across northeast and east central NM, where moderate chances (60-70%) exist to exceed advisory criteria. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1217 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Gusty westerly winds will persist behind the Pacific cold front Tuesday evening, then trend down overnight. Wednesday will be the most pleasant day of the week, with much less wind, plenty of sunshine and temperatures within a few degrees of average. Backing and increasing flow aloft and a deepening lee side trough will be the story on Thursday in advance of an upper level trough/low dropping rapidly southeast out of the Pacific NW. As a result, breezy to locally windy and warmer conditions are forecast Thursday, with low chances (20-30%) for wind speeds to exceed advisory criteria. The potent trough will move east across the southern Rockies and NM on Friday, bringing stronger winds and a cold front. Moderate chances (50-60%) exist for wind speeds to exceed advisory criteria on Friday. The weekend is looking much less active and cooler behind the cold front. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1130 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Southwesterly winds have already increased across much of the area late this morning and these wind speeds will continue to rise through mid afternoon. Gusts between 30 and 40kt will be common across southern and eastern areas through early evening. Meanwhile across northwest and central areas, light showers and a few thunderstorms will develop this afternoon. These showers will be capable of gusty and erratic wind gusts, some of which may reach 35kt. Overnight, showers will be focused over the northern mtns, but another batch of light showers will move into northwest NM Tuesday morning. MVFR cigs will be possible with this latter round of showers around KGUP as well as mountain obscurations across much of north central NM. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1217 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A deepening lee side trough will bring gusty southwest winds to northeast NM today, where areas of critical fire weather conditions are forecast and a Red Flag Warning is in effect. Winds are forecast to strengthen further Tuesday ahead of a Pacific cold front, with even drier conditions. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for much of eastern NM for Tuesday. Higher humidity and chances for wetting precipitation will precede the front Monday night into Tuesday across much of west central and northwest NM. Dry and locally breezy conditions are forecast Wednesday, but more widespread critical fire weather conditions are likely Thursday and Friday as a potent upper level trough and associated cold front approach from the Pacific NW and move over the region. Expect a break from the wind on Saturday behind the cold front, but winds will crank back up by Sunday afternoon and bring back the threat for critical fire weather conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 66 41 59 31 / 20 70 40 0 Dulce........................... 62 31 54 20 / 40 80 70 0 Cuba............................ 61 35 56 27 / 50 60 40 5 Gallup.......................... 62 32 57 23 / 30 50 40 0 El Morro........................ 60 35 55 27 / 30 40 20 0 Grants.......................... 64 34 60 25 / 30 30 20 0 Quemado......................... 62 37 60 29 / 20 20 5 0 Magdalena....................... 66 43 65 35 / 20 10 0 0 Datil........................... 61 40 59 30 / 20 10 5 0 Reserve......................... 67 35 65 26 / 30 40 5 0 Glenwood........................ 73 38 69 30 / 40 50 10 0 Chama........................... 55 31 48 21 / 50 90 70 0 Los Alamos...................... 61 41 57 36 / 40 60 30 5 Pecos........................... 63 37 60 30 / 20 50 10 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 60 36 54 28 / 20 60 30 0 Red River....................... 51 31 44 23 / 20 60 40 5 Angel Fire...................... 57 30 52 20 / 10 50 20 5 Taos............................ 64 34 58 25 / 20 60 30 5 Mora............................ 63 36 59 29 / 10 30 10 5 Espanola........................ 69 41 65 32 / 30 50 30 0 Santa Fe........................ 63 41 60 35 / 20 50 20 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 65 40 63 32 / 20 50 20 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 69 48 68 40 / 20 40 10 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 70 46 69 42 / 20 40 10 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 73 45 71 37 / 20 30 10 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 71 47 69 39 / 20 40 10 0 Belen........................... 74 44 73 34 / 20 30 5 0 Bernalillo...................... 72 46 70 39 / 20 40 10 0 Bosque Farms.................... 73 43 72 32 / 20 30 5 0 Corrales........................ 73 47 71 39 / 20 40 10 0 Los Lunas....................... 73 43 71 35 / 20 30 5 0 Placitas........................ 67 47 65 39 / 20 50 10 0 Rio Rancho...................... 71 48 69 39 / 20 40 10 0 Socorro......................... 78 48 77 40 / 20 20 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 64 44 63 36 / 20 50 10 5 Tijeras......................... 65 44 64 37 / 20 50 10 5 Edgewood........................ 67 42 66 33 / 20 40 10 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 69 38 68 29 / 20 40 5 5 Clines Corners.................. 64 38 64 33 / 10 20 5 5 Mountainair..................... 68 42 67 33 / 20 30 5 0 Gran Quivira.................... 67 43 66 35 / 20 20 5 5 Carrizozo....................... 71 50 69 40 / 10 20 0 5 Ruidoso......................... 64 46 63 38 / 10 20 5 5 Capulin......................... 66 38 64 29 / 0 5 0 0 Raton........................... 69 36 66 29 / 0 5 0 0 Springer........................ 72 37 69 30 / 5 5 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 66 40 64 31 / 10 20 5 0 Clayton......................... 75 48 73 40 / 0 0 0 5 Roy............................. 70 44 69 35 / 5 5 0 5 Conchas......................... 80 48 78 38 / 5 5 5 5 Santa Rosa...................... 75 46 74 39 / 10 10 5 5 Tucumcari....................... 82 51 81 42 / 0 5 5 10 Clovis.......................... 81 51 80 46 / 5 0 5 10 Portales........................ 82 51 81 45 / 5 0 10 10 Fort Sumner..................... 80 48 78 41 / 5 5 0 5 Roswell......................... 83 52 83 47 / 0 0 0 5 Picacho......................... 76 49 75 41 / 5 5 0 0 Elk............................. 74 47 73 38 / 0 5 0 5 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ104-123. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for NMZ104-123-125-126. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...34  638 FXUS64 KHUN 131733 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1233 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1039 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 - Low RH values and gusty winds may result in elevated fire weather conditions Tuesday through Wednesday. - There is a low chance of thunderstorms on Thursday. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 1039 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 On a large scale upper air view, a troughing west and ridging east pattern was in place across the CONUS. The main polar jet was in place from the northern Baja to the southern Great Lakes. This disturbance laden flow was producing some upglide at times within the 300-305K region (~850-720 mb), mainly with mid-level clouds and a moisture maxima, was producing light showers from the NW Mississippi and Arkansas Delta region, across western and middle Tennessee, and the Ohio Valley. Cloud bases over and around our area were mainly at or above 10000ft AGL. Therefore rain falling from these clouds should mostly evaporate before reaching the ground. The echoes via radar look "intense" enough, so we cannot rule out a few light showers and/or sprinkles the remainder of the morning and this afternoon. Shower activity if it occurs should be confined to parts of NW Alabama and maybe the northern portions of Lincoln, Moore, Franklin counties in Tennessee. Otherwise a mix of clouds and sun (more clouds) are forecast across the area today. With S-SW winds of 5-15 mph, high temperatures later today should rise into the lower 80s. The above mentioned upglide and mid-level moisture axis should be shunted a bit more to the west this evening. Thus cloud coverage tonight should range from mostly clear east to partly cloudy west. With more clouds and milder conditions west, low temperatures should cool from the mid 50s east to lower 60s west with light southerly winds. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday) Issued at 1039 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 High pressure at the surface east of the southeast coast, and upper ridging over the eastern Gulf region will control the general weather situation over and around the Tennessee Valley as we go into the mid week. With more sun and ever so higher heights and thickness values, very warm and dry conditions will continue. As such, high temperatures both Tuesday and Wednesday should top out in the mid 80s, with lows Tuesday night in the mid 50s east to lower 60s west. High temperatures in the mid 80s and dewpoints mainly in the 50s will result in minimum afternoon relative humidities reduced into the lower 30s percent. While these are above critical outdoor fire levels, they are low enough (plus dry antecedent conditions) along with daily winds from the SW 5-15 mph, and gusts over 20 mph in the afternoon, could result in dangerous outdoor fire weather concerns. Area residents are urged to exercise caution regarding outdoor fires, and pay heed to any outside fire restrictions and/or bans. Depending upon local conditions, outdoor fires could grow and spread more rapidly than one anticipates. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 954 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026 Heading into the latter half of the week, an upper wave will run into the ridge that has been hanging onto the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. As the wave lifts into the Upper Midwest Thursday afternoon, another weaker wave seems to develop in the Lower MS Valley. This southern wave will bring a low chance (20-40%) of showers and some thunderstorms on Thursday. We are in desperate need of rainfall, so will take what little amount we can get out of Thursday. Those rainfall chances will be short lived as a ridge builds back into the region on Friday. This will push daytime highs to even more unseasonably warm values than what we have been experiencing this Spring. Some of us could see our first 90 degree reading of the year on Friday afternoon, 15+ degrees above normal! Now this may not be considered hot for Alabama, however it is for mid April, so be sure to be heat smart. Take it slow, seek shade and remain hydrated. Welcomed rain chances return this weekend, sorry it's over the weekend, as a trough digs through the Plains and back up into the Midwest and drags a cold front into the Southeast. Unseasonably warm temps in the upper 80s will linger into Saturday but values will drop on Sunday after the frontal passage. Look for highs that are much cooler, yet seasonable, in the mid to upper 70s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 VFR weather should continue for the TAF. A feed of mid-level moisture moving SW-NE could produce a few sprinkles or light showers over NW AL this afternoon. Otherwise scattered to broken mid and high altitude clouds are expected through Tue morning. SW winds of 5-15 kt with gusts above 20kt this afternoon, should become southerly 5-10 kt tonight. S-SW winds of 5-15 kt are expected Tue. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...RSB SHORT TERM....RSB LONG TERM....JMS AVIATION...RSB  385 FXUS61 KRLX 131733 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 133 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Adjusted near term precipitation probabilities to account for convective trends moving out of eastern Kentucky. Minor upward adjustments to surface wind gusts this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1.) Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will track across northern portions of the area late this afternoon into this evening. Some very localized relief from recent dryness possible. 2.) Near-record heat will dominate the work week and into the weekend beneath a stagnant upper level ridge. 3.) Mainly diurnal shower and thunderstorm chances continue through the week, offering little drought relief. A strong cold front approaches next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Regional radar mosaic this afternoon depicts disorganized convection across eastern Kentucky, forced by a mid-level wave traversing the upper Ohio Valley and weak warm advection. This activity is forecast to translate west-to-east across southeast Ohio and northern West Virginia late this afternoon and into the evening. Surface observations across the area indicate a well-mixed boundary layer with temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s and dew points in the upper 40s to lower 50s. This substantial dew point depression will limit precipitation efficiency, with many locations receiving trace amounts or no rain at all. Evaporational cooling within this dry sub-cloud layer will augment downdrafts, supporting localized surface wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph near convective cores, consistent with current ASOS gust reports of 20 to 25 mph outside of precipitation. KEY MESSAGE 2... The synoptic pattern remains highly amplified and stagnant, featuring a persistent H500 ridge anchored over the eastern half of the country. Deep southwesterly flow continues to transport a warm, modified Gulf airmass into the region. This regime will yield unseasonably hot conditions, with high temperatures running 15 to 20 degrees F above climatological normals. Statistical guidance strongly supports maximum temperatures reaching the mid to upper 80s across the lowlands, particularly on Wednesday, Thursday, and Saturday, challenging several daily records. KEY MESSAGE 3... Embedded shortwaves rippling through the southwesterly flow will provide periodic forcing for mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms. Deep layer shear is forecast to maximize on Tuesday at 30 to 35KTs, which could support loosely organized multicell structures. However, the most robust forcing and instability will remain shunted to the northwest of the forecast area. Precipitation totals through the work week will offer little relief to ongoing dry conditions, with ensemble guidance suggesting less than a quarter inch of rain across the southern coalfields and perhaps a half inch across the northwest. Elevated fire weather conditions will remain a concern, especially during peak afternoon heating mid to late week. Minimum relative humidity values are forecast to drop into the 25 to 35 percent range. Combined with gusty southwesterly surface winds of 15 to 25 mph, fine dead fuels will remain receptive to fire. A pattern shift is increasingly likely by next weekend as a robust upper trough encroaches from the west, driving a strong cold front through the region and delivering a better opportunity for widespread wetting rainfall. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions generally prevail across the airspace this afternoon. Southwest surface winds of 10 to 15KTs with gusts of 20 to 25KTs will continue through sunset before decoupling. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will track across the central/northern terminals late this afternoon into the evening. Very brief MVFR visibility restrictions and erratic wind gusts could accompany the heavier cores, but confidence in direct terminal impacts outside of HTS/CRW remain low. Ceilings will lower to 040 to 070 AGL with this activity but should remain VFR. Dry conditions and VFR ceilings return by 06Z Tuesday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Very brief MVFR/IFR conditions are possible with a heavier shower. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... VFR conditions will generally prevail through the work week. However, brief periods of MVFR to IFR restrictions are possible within isolated showers and thunderstorms. && .CLIMATE... Persistent southwesterly flow will yield very warm temperatures for this time of the year through Saturday. Record highs may be challenged on several days. Forecast / Record High Temperatures ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Tue, 4/14 | Wed, 4/15 | Thu, 4/16 | Fri, 4/17 | ------------------------------------------------------------------------ CRW | 85 / 88 (2018) | 89 / 89 (1994) | 87 / 89 (2002) | 84 / 89 (1976) | HTS | 86 / 87 (1941) | 89 / 87 (2024) | 86 / 89 (2024) | 86 / 87 (1976) | CKB | 82 / 87 (2018) | 85 / 83 (1974) | 84 / 86 (2002) | 80 / 88 (1969) | PKB | 84 / 85 (1941) | 87 / 84 (2024) | 86 / 88 (2002) | 83 / 89 (1976) | BKW | 78 / 83 (2018) | 83 / 82 (2012) | 81 / 84 (2002) | 78 / 84 (1976) | EKN | 80 / 85 (2018) | 84 / 81 (2012) | 83 / 85 (2012) | 78 / 87 (1976) | ------------------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------- Sat, 4/18 | --------------------- CRW | 90 / 90 (2019) | HTS | 90 / 89 (1955) | CKB | 86 / 88 (1976) | PKB | 88 / 91 (1976) | BKW | 83 / 86 (1976) | EKN | 85 / 88 (1976) | && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JP AVIATION...JP CLIMATE...JP  820 FXUS62 KCAE 131733 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 133 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Record high temperatures possible next week and into the weekend. Front possible late weekend. Aviation discussion updated for 18z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1. Well above average temperatures, along with dry weather conditions, will continue into next weekend. - 2. Limited chance for rain on Sunday, but rainfall would be light and short-lived. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Well above average temperatures, along with dry weather conditions, will continue into next weekend. Not much has really changed in regards to the expected hot and dry conditions this week and into the upcoming weekend. Upper ridge will be in control through Thursday before weakening slightly Friday as an upper trough passes off to our north. Airmass remains too dry for any chance of seeing rainfall, so a dry forecast remains. Behind that exiting trough for the first part of the weekend, upper ridge builds back in with some of the warmest temperatures of the period possible Saturday. Through Saturday, near record highs will remain possible each day, and multiple days at or above 90 degrees F are likely by mid-week and into the weekend. Key Message 2: Limited chance for rain on Sunday, but rainfall would be light and short-lived. Cooler temperatures possible Sunday onward. Models are showing a small chance for a brief shower on Sunday as another upper level system moves off to the north of the forecast area. At the surface, the upper trough will at least be strong enough to push a cold front into and eventually through the area Sunday into Sunday night. Slightly better moisture could move in ahead of this front, allowing for a slight chance of seeing some light rainfall as it moves through. The best chance for seeing this appears to be over the central/northern Midlands Sunday afternoon, with the southern Midlands and the CSRA potentially remaining dry with this front. The front will be strong enough though to bring slightly cooler temperatures back across the region starting Sunday afternoon and into Monday. Highs in the 70s could be possible on Monday. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions prevail through the period. Winds remain generally between 6 to 10 kts with occasional low-end gusts to around 15 kts this afternoon as a dry air mass holds in place. There is a low chance for shallow fog or stratus to develop once again tonight, mainly confined to the usual fog-prone locations of AGS and OGB. A 20 to 30 kt low-level jet and dry air should limit the extent of any low fog or stratus that does develop tonight, though brief development cannot be ruled out. After daybreak on Tuesday, any patchy restrictions should quickly dissipate with VFR conditions prevailing under clear to mostly clear skies and SW to S winds. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...High pressure to dominate through the upcoming week, the chance for widespread restrictions remains low. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CAL AVIATION...ND  934 FXUS65 KGJT 131734 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1134 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A cold front arrives Monday morning, setting up for multiple days of near or below-normal temperatures. - Valley rain and mountain snow is expected beginning Monday and lasting for the majority of the week. - Travel over the mountain passes could be difficult on Tuesday due to slippery and slushy roads. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1053 PM MDT Sun Apr 12 2026 MONDAY-TUESDAY SYSTEM: Our next system has moved into Northern California this evening, with strong, moist southwesterly flow pushing into eastern Utah and western Colorado. This will keep winds elevated over the next 24-48 hours, as well as advect increasing upper level moisture. Forecast PWATS of 100-150% of normal are expected by mid-day tomorrow, increasing to 150-200% of normal by Tuesday morning. A cold front is expected to reach the region tomorrow, though it looks to stall as the energy in the parent trough splits into a northern-stream trough and southern-stream closed low. This will keep much of the region under pre-frontal southwesterly flow, but notably also keep the surface pressure gradient weaker than initially anticipated. So while winds will be breezy, with gusts up to 35 mph, Wind Advisories appear unneeded. The southern-stream low becomes mobile once more tomorrow night into Tuesday, gradually weakening as it lifts northeast through the area during the day on Tuesday. The surface cold front will push through ahead of the main low, ushering in a much colder airmass. Temperatures will run 5-15 degrees below normal, and snow levels look to lower to 7000-8000 feet. This means accumulating snow at and above pass level, with valley rain showers below. The big question remains how much snow will accumulate, and how impactful it will be. The best forcing moves through during the day Tuesday, meaning that any accumulating snow will be fighting against the high spring sun- angle and the warm surface temperatures. There also remains uncertainties in snow-ratios and QPF. As a result, have opted not to issue any advisories with this package. But if travelling over the mountains on Tuesday, be prepared for sloppy driving conditions. COOLER AND UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK: Wednesday and Thursday look to bring a brief break from the wind and the cooler temperatures, as transient ridging passes through. Temperatures rebound to near or around 5 degrees above normal. However, another system will already be moving into the Pacific Northwest. Model guidance remains bullish on this system bringing another substantial cool-down late week, with blended guidance dropping temperatures back into the 5-15 degrees below normal range. There remains much uncertainty with other factors about this system, such at track, strength, and moisture content. So stay tuned. Taking a look even further out, models look to keep this unsettled pattern in place. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1131 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Clouds will to increase through the afternoon as an approaching system brings more moisture into the region. Midlevel scattered to broken skies will be the rule along with some gusty surface winds, especially near any cells that will form this afternoon. Many PROB30 groups in place for precip later this afternoon with more predominant precip expected around midnight onwards. MVFR will be possible under lower cigs and vis thanks to rain and rainshowers. ILS breakpoints will be met heading towards 12Z and onwards. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning for COZ001-002-007-008-011-020>023. UT...Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning for UTZ024. && $$ DISCUSSION...BGB AVIATION...TGJT  163 FXUS63 KICT 131735 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1235 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Extreme grassland fire danger west of I-135 this afternoon and again on Tuesday afternoon. - A rogue storm may develop along the dryline late this afternoon/evening but probabilities remain too low to mention given a strong capping inversion. - Better chances for severe thunderstorms are expected to arrive on Tuesday and Tuesday night and possibly again late Wednesday. - After a brief break, another round of severe thunderstorms may impact the area on Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 210 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Southwest mid/upper flow continues across the central CONUS while we remain under some subtle ridging within the mid lvl flow. The NAM/RAP/HRRR are all mixing the dryline much further east for this afternoon compared to 24 hrs ago. Some mix the dryline into the Flint Hills this afternoon before it retreats westward into south central Kansas this evening and tonight. Point soundings in the vicinity of the dryline show a strong capping inversion around the H8 level which will likely preclude deep moist convection today and tonight. There is some concern that deeper vertical mixing in the wake of the dryline will mix down higher wind speeds with some gusts of 40-50 mph. Southwest wind speeds and gusts were trended higher for the afternoon in the wake of the dryline but we may still be too low on speeds. Another warm day is anticipated with no changes to the Red flag warning. A shortwave trough over the Southwest is progged to move into the Rockies late on Tuesday. Very strong winds through the column will begin to nose into the Central Plains late in the day. Meanwhile, the persistent dryline will be situated over the area once again and will become a focus for widely scattered thunderstorm development by 21Z. Very steep mid-lvl lapse rates/moderate buoyancy and deep layer shear of 50-60 knots will all be supportive of supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes. As the previous shift mentioned, the dryline is now progged to lie in the southwest to northeast fashion, more similar to the orientation of the deep layer shear vectors which could impact storm mode to some degree. As we move into Wednesday, the frontal boundary will still be hanging around in southeast Kansas. This boundary will become a focus for showers and thunderstorms on Wed afternoon. Low level veered flow may limit convergence on the boundary initially, but shear/buoyancy would continue to support organized storms bringing a threat for severe weather to southeast KS. The low level moisture may try to return NNW Wed night working back into south central KS which could result in renewed storm development but confidence in this scenario remains fairly low at this time. A mid/upper ridge will translate eastward over the central CONUS on Thursday. Breezy southerly winds and dry conditions will return to the area with mild, above normal temperatures prevailing. Another vigorous trough is progged to build over the Rockies late on Friday. A 120 knot upper jet will arrive over the Southern Plains nosing into the Central Plains toward 00Z. A sharp dryline may become a focus for storms late in the day before the cold front overtakes the dryline with a line of storms racing south and east across the area Friday night. We continue to see a strongly sheared environment with moderate instability and steep mid-lvl lapse rates supporting supercells capable all hazards initially, while a line of storms may evolve late along the advancing cold front. Sat-Sun...As the mid/upper trough moves eastward toward the Great Lakes area, drier more stable and seasonably cool air will arrive on Saturday. Surface high pressure will settle over the area early on Sunday with some frost possible. Temperatures will quickly moderate on Sunday with rising heights/increasing thickness and a return to southerly slow level flow late in the period. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail at central and south central KS sites through the end of the period, while MVFR ceilings may impact CNU Tuesday morning. Gusty south/southwest winds are expected to continue through the afternoon hours with sustained speeds around 15 kts and gusts up to 30 kts, especially in central KS. Gusts are anticipated to subside by sunset, though sustained speeds ranging from 10-15 kts will continue overnight with LLWS impacting ICT and CNU through the early morning hours. Finally, increasing low-level moisture along and east of the Kansas Turnpike is expected to result in MVFR ceilings at CNU beginning late tonight and lasting into Tuesday morning. There remains a slight chance (15%) for showers or storms impacting CNU later this afternoon and evening. However, given uncertainty in timing and exact location, decided to leave a mention out for this cycle. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 210 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Extreme grassland fire danger is expected this afternoon and again on Tuesday afternoon along and west of a dryline where afternoon relative humidity may fall into the teens. Deep vertical mixing will also bring the potential gusty southwest winds. The area of concern will be mainly west of I-135. Otherwise, spring green-up and higher humidity values is expected to keep the fire danger in check for most areas, especially areas southeast of the Kansas Turnpike. Breezy southerly winds will return on Thursday and Friday resulting in a very high grassland fire danger for Russell and Barton counties in central Kansas. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033- 047-048-050-067-082-091. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for KSZ032-033-047-048-050-067-082-091. && $$ DISCUSSION...MWM AVIATION...JWK FIRE WEATHER...MWM  851 FXUS64 KLUB 131735 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1235 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 - Fire weather concerns today and again on Tuesday west of a dryline. - Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms, some severe, are possible Tuesday through Friday, mainly off the Caprock. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A quiet afternoon was well underway after yesterday's round of spotty storms. Regional obs at noon showed the dryline was becoming better defined from just east of Childress down to Lake Alan Henry, but this shallow moisture will soon depart our forecast area ahead of breezy SW winds and deeper mixing. Although background ascent is largely muted this afternoon in SW flow, convective temps and/or any stronger dryline circulations could promote very isolated storms just S-E of Stonewall County. A richer and deeper influx of gulf moisture ensues tonight all the while the dryline retreats to near a Brownfield-Lubbock-Silverton line. Sizable CAPE above the nocturnal inversion looks difficult to tap into given neutral ascent in this layer, but we'll keep a sliver of 20 PoPs in/around Stonewall County overnight as a few CAMs support elevated convection with assistance from a 40 knot LLJ and modest isentropic ascent. NBM's PoPs were too generous in coverage and amounts overnight, so these were scaled lower. Tuesday's dryline is likely to mix off the Caprock and stall somewhere in our eastern zones thanks to thicker moisture and backed winds unfolding in the moist sector. These more southerly surface winds are in response to pressure falls farther west preceding an upper trough. As this trough lifts across the Four Corners on Tuesday, southwest winds at 500 mb tick up from about 40 knots today to 65 knots by noon Tuesday in concert with steady height falls. A fair bit of mid and high clouds will accompany this stronger flow, but should not hinder convective temps much as the EML is not progged to strengthen much, if any. So the pros outweigh the cons for a more active dryline Tuesday afternoon off the Caprock. Severe prospects, including a few supercells, are in play given up to 2000 J/kg of SBCAPE embedded with 40 knots of 0-6 km bulk shear. One positive consideration is that storm modes will be swift to the northeast which should keep our severe concerns limited to the first few hours following initiation. West of the dryline, another breezy and very warm afternoon awaits. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Any remaining convection across the Rolling Plains late Tuesday night should be well east of the FA by sunrise Wednesday. The dryline will remain over the eastern Rolling Plains by sunrise Wednesday before pushing eastward as an upper shortwave trough moves over the region. This should help to keep most if not all convection east of the FA Wednesday afternoon and evening. An upper low will travel from the Pacific Northwest Wednesday southeastward to the Central Rockies by Friday morning. A surface lee low is progged to develop ahead of the upper low/trough late Thursday, allowing for breezy conditions to develop area wide. This will be further enhanced as a cold front begins pushing southward Friday afternoon and evening as the upper low/trough pushes eastward towards the Central Plains. A dryline is expected to precede the cold front, with the cold front moving south of the FA by late Saturday morning. Both the dryline and cold front are expected to be dry at this point, though critical to near extreme fire weather danger will be possible behind the dryline due to windy and dry conditions. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 VFR. Marginal LLWS is possible overnight at all sites before gusty SW winds resume around 15Z Tuesday. A dryline will retreat to near a LBB-CDS line by daybreak with a conditional threat for low stratus, mainly south of these terminals. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A critical fire weather danger continues through 8 PM this evening for the far southwest TX Panhandle and northern South Plains. Southwest winds here of 20 to 25 mph with some gusts near 40 mph will push RFTIs up to 4 and 5. A bit less wind for Tuesday will support similar fire concerns for the same areas while locations off the Caprock face chances for afternoon and evening storms. A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for portions of the South Plains and far southern TX Panhandle on Tuesday afternoon and evening. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>024- 027>029. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for TXZ021>031-033>036-039-040. && $$ SHORT TERM...93 LONG TERM....51 AVIATION...93  143 FXUS66 KSGX 131736 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 1036 AM PDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers will continue into this evening from the coast to the mountains. There will be southwest to west winds for the mountains and deserts with gusts to 35 to 45 mph for this afternoon and evening. It will then be dry through next weekend. High temperatures will warm to around average on Wednesday, cool a few degrees on Thursday with gusty west winds for the mountains and deserts, then warm into next weekend with high temperatures for next weekend around 5 to 10 degrees above average. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... .SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)... A low pressure system from the northwest will move into to southern California this morning, then move east of the area late tonight. There will be gusty west winds for the mountains and deserts with gusts to 35 to 45 mph for this afternoon and evening with gusts to 40 to 50 mph along and below the desert slopes of the mountains in San Diego County. Scattered showers will continue at times into this evening with additional rainfall of less than one-tenth inch near the coast to one-tenth to one-quarter inch in the mountains, locally to one- third to one-half inch in the San Diego County mountains. The snow level will fall to 5500 to 6000 feet this morning, then fluctuate in that range through this evening with snowfall of an inch or two above 6000 to 6500 feet. Dry weather will then follow for Tuesday through next weekend. It will be cooler today with high temperatures as much as 20 to 25 degrees below average for the mountains above 6500 feet. High temperatures for today will range from the mid to upper 50s for the far inland valleys to the mid 60s for inland coastal areas and the western valleys with the lower to mid 70s for the lower deserts. There will be drying and warming for Tuesday and Wednesday with Wednesday high temperatures around average. High temperatures on Wednesday will range from the mid to upper 60s near the coast to the 70s for the Inland Empire with the mid to upper 80s for the lower deserts. && .LONG TERM (Thursday through Sunday)... A low pressure system moving into the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday and into the Great Basin on Thursday will bring stronger onshore flow to southwestern California on Thursday. High temperatures on Thursday will be a few degrees cooler with west winds gusting to 35 to 45 mph for the mountains and deserts. There will be warming for Friday and Saturday with weak offshore flow possible on Friday. High temperatures for next weekend will be around 5 to 10 degrees above average with high temperatures ranging from the lower 70s near the coast to the lower to mid 80s for the Inland Empire with the lower deserts around 90. && .AVIATION... 131730Z...Coasts/Valleys...Multiple SCT-BKN cloud layers above 2500 ft MSL expected today. SCT -SHRA could drop cigs to 2000 feet at times. -SHRA will taper off NW to SE around 00Z Tue. Cigs below 3000 ft unlikely for the coast overnight, with 40-50% chance in the valleys, especially near mountain foothills 08-14Z Tue. Any lingering low clouds should SCT by 18Z Tue. .Mountains/Deserts...West to southwest winds gusting 35-45 kt through passes and on to desert slopes through 10Z Tue. MOD up/downdrafts in lee of mountains. SCT SHRA/SNSH possible through 00Z Tue in the mountains. Areas of terrain obscuration below 6000 feet MSL on west/south facing slopes. && .MARINE... Isolated westerly wind gusts will exceed 20 kt this afternoon and evening, generating choppy conditions. No hazardous conditions are expected Tuesday through Friday. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...17 AVIATION/MARINE...CO  347 FXUS63 KIND 131737 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN Issued by National Weather Service Louisville KY 137 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Active pattern this week with near daily chances for showers and storms - Severe weather is a possibility later today and Tuesday focused mainly across the northwest half of central Indiana. Additional threats for strong to severe storms Wednesday and Saturday - Warm temperatures expected through Saturday with multiple days in the lower to mid 80s. Record temperatures are possibleperiod. && .FORECAST UPDATE... Issued at 948 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Isolated light showers continue across the far southern forecast area this morning. Skies were partly to mostly cloudy, and temperatures were around 70 at most locations. Some weak forcing may continue across the southern quarter to third of the forecast area into early afternoon, so kept some slight chance PoPs there. Otherwise, chances for rain look very low until mid afternoon to early evening. An upper wave currently generating some convection across Missouri/far western Illinois will move northeast and may generate more convection as instability increases this afternoon. The bulk of the convection would remain north of central Indiana, but some may get into the northern portion of the area. There will be enough instability and shear for isolated severe storms with damaging winds and large hail across the far northern portions of the area. Partly to mostly cloudy skies look to continue today, but there will be enough sun to bring temperatures to around 80. Made no significant changes to forecast highs, but will continue to monitor clouds and adjust temperatures if needed. && .DISCUSSION (Today through Sunday)... Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Scattered showers have been extremely efficient early this morning in pulling strong wind gusts briefly to the surface. Multiple observations of 40 to 50 mph winds have been seen across the northern half of the forecast area since late last evening with even a higher gust to 65mph at KIND around 0530Z. Temperatures remained warm with 06Z readings generally in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Today through Tuesday The ongoing showers are associated with a potent upper level wave traversing the region this morning. The ACARS sounding at KIND continues to show an excellent setup for pulling the 50kt winds at 3kft agl to the surface with any showers as the presence of dry air within the boundary layer and a dry adiabatic flow up to about 700mb has produced an inverted V sounding. Over the most recent ACARS soundings the top level of the dry layer has been slowly falling and as of 06Z resided at around 800mb. Showers will impact the area for a couple more hours with ideal conditions for stronger gusts potentially in excess of 50mph at times. Freshened the SPS to highlight more recent observations and trends with the focus for strongest gusts shifting to the Indy metro and points northeast through about 08-0830Z. The departure of the core of the low level jet to the east and a gradual top down moistening of the boundary layer will end the threat for the strongest gusts within the next couple hours but general wind gusts up to 25 to 30 mph will persist through much of the day. Moisture advection will arrive quickly on the heels of the departing showers and with it will come increasing instability which may be enough to generate additional isolated to scattered convection through daybreak prior to the back edge of the forcing aloft associated with the upper wave shifts away to the east. Much of the rest of the day through mid afternoon will be quiet with a blanket of stratus settling over much of the forecast area as a shallow moisture layer becomes trapped beneath an inversion. The arrival of subtle surface ridging later this afternoon will enable the deck to lift and mix out somewhat. Highs will again be near 80. Scattered convection may redevelop by late day but should be largely focused north of the forecast area in closer proximity to the warm front across the lower Great Lakes. Any convection that does fire into the evening over northern Indiana will carry a severe risk as a narrow band of moderate instability aligns with a rapid increase in shear and SRH within the 0-3km layer. Some of this convection may slip into far northern portions of the forecast area during the evening but the presence of a cap around 750mb should be sufficient to limit most convective development this far south. Much of the rest of the night will be quiet under a muggy airmass with continued breezy southwest winds. Lows will only fall into the mid and upper 60s. Most of Tuesday will be warm and humid with temperatures likely to threaten record highs in the afternoon as readings warm into the lower and mid 80s. A surface wave tracking along the frontal boundary into the upper Midwest will serve as a trigger for robust convective development in the afternoon that will likely migrate E/SE Tuesday evening and night into a modestly unstable airmass with steep mid level lapse rates across the region. Severe weather is a threat focused mainly across the northwest half of the forecast area during the evening as the frontal boundary drifts into northern Indiana and a nocturnal low level jet becomes established. Damaging winds will be the primary threat but all hazards are in play. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible as well although the recent stretch of drier conditions over the last 7 to 10 days will limit any flooding concerns. Showers and storms will continue through the night and likely be ongoing at daybreak Wednesday across far northern portions of the forecast area. Wednesday through Sunday Active weather will continue into the weekend as the aforementioned frontal boundary remains north of the region through late week. A stronger surface low will track into the upper Midwest Saturday and pull the boundary through the area as a cold front. Cooler and drier weather will follow for the second half of the weekend. The front will nudge itself closer to the forecast area Wednesday as low pressure occludes over the upper Mississippi Valley with a more widespread convective threat for the entire area that will persist into Thursday. A few storms may be severe yet again with modest instability across the Ohio Valley especially Wednesday afternoon and evening. The boundary should retreat back north Thursday night into Friday with chances for rain and storms lowering. Signs are pointing towards another risk for severe weather Saturday as a cold front sweeps across the Ohio Valley. Temperatures from the upper 70s to mid 80s will be common this week with Friday likely to be the warmest day. Cooler and drier conditions are expected for Sunday and Monday as high pressure builds in behind the front. The cooldown appears brief as upper level ridging should return to the Ohio Valley by next Tuesday and Wednesday. && .AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 136 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Impacts: - Low-VFR ceilings this afternoon may briefly fall to MVFR - MVFR CIGs are possible at times after 06Z, at mainly KIND/KLAF - SSW winds gusting to 20-25KT through most of the TAF period - Scattered convection may impact KLAF late today/this evening... with low chances of convection at all terminals after 12Z Tuesday Discussion: Recent MVFR decks have mixed out/lifted to low-VFR over central Indiana terminals...although low chances of high-MVFR ceilings will remain through this evening, especially near any convection after 21Z that will most likely be near KLAF. After 06Z tonight, occasional MVFR is possible at KLAF/KIND. Winds wobbling slightly between southwest and south-southwest through the period will stay breezy to robust, sustained at mainly 10-15KT with gusts up to 20-25KT...and likely stronger flow at KIND Tuesday afternoon. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Within the setup described in the discussion above, near record temperatures are possible at times this week, mainly Tuesday, and Friday. Whether readings get close depends on sky cover and any rain staying away, which keeps confidence lower at this time. Current deterministic model runs are cooler than the records, but the potential exists to get within a few degrees if everything lines up. On Tuesday April 14, Indy's record high is 85, set in 1883. On Friday April 17, Indy's record high is 87, set in 1896. Record high minimum temperatures are also in play at times given the warm and relatively humid airmass. The first opportunity for this comes Monday, when the record high minimum at Indy is 63, set in 2014 and tied in 2018. At the moment, the forecast is for tying that number. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...50 DISCUSSION...Ryan CLIMATE...Ryan AVIATION...NWS IND / NWS LMK  618 FXUS63 KDLH 131737 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1237 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy fog this morning - Conditional severe threat for late afternoon and evening. The greatest threat potential has shifted further south but our southern half of the CWA could still see some large hail develop between 4PM - 1 AM. - Active pattern continues with rain showers across northern MN for Tuesday and more storms possible in NW WI Wednesday. - A bigger system may be on the horizon for Friday which will advect warm and moist air back into the region setting the stage for some severe storms once again. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 235 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Current Conditions: Widespread stratus is sinking in from the north blanketing the region this morning with some areas of patchy fog. Notably is the warm temperatures we still have in place with our current lows at 2 AM sitting in the 40s and 50s. Cloud cover is largely expected to endure through the morning with some scattering possible in the afternoon. Today: Another potentially active day will be on tap as another low pressure infringes on the Northland out of the Central Plains. A warm front will span west to east and slowly march north into our southern counties in the afternoon with dewpoints of 60F knocking on our door step. This corridor of high instability will have bulk shear values of 50-60 kts to help sustain supercell development. Mean storm flow is expected to be out of the southwest leading to some discrete cells initially that will congeal into a linear mode later into the event. High res guidance still shows a lot of variation when it comes to the overall coverage with little run to run consistency. The latest trend has largely shifted the brunt of the impacts further south with SPC pulling the enhanced risk out of our CWA leaving us with a slight risk across our southern counties. This will all be predicated on how the warm front moves. The majority of the guidance keeps the boundary anchored to our south where the better chances for severe weather will be seen. However, even if the boundary stays to our south we could still see some development on its northern periphery with storms forming on the cool side and clustering through the evening hours. The convective parameter space does not look to have changed to much, with LHP values of 16 combined with steep mid level lapse rates of 8.5C/km will be able to generate some large hail around golf ball size. Timing has slightly shifted to later in the afternoon and early evening hours as both ridging aloft and capping will work against convective initiation. While there remains a large spread in solutions the best timing looks to be 4 PM along the boundary (which may be to our south). The end of the threat period is expected to be around 1 AM. The key to this whole forecast will be monitoring the warm front, there is even potential for storms to become surface based along the boundary which could result in a few tornado spin ups and damaging winds. But as of right now most guidance keeps this boundary to our south. Tuesday: Monday's low pressure system broadens and moves into central WI. A trailing inverted surface trough will end up in phase with an upper level trough moving out of the Red River Valley Tuesday morning. This combination with some added divergence aloft from an upper level jet will lead to some rain showers cruising across northern MN. There is some weak instability in the morning so a few rumbles of thunder can't fully be ruled out, but this instability does not linger long as these showers travel east through the afternoon. Overall, not expecting much in the way of impacts from these additional showers. Midweek into the extended forecast: The active pattern doesn't stop on Wednesday with another system working its way across the Midwest. A deeper trough will dig down into the Central Plains as a surface low slides across southern MN. This low will have a warm front branch into our region once again that will help to incite some showers and storms in the afternoon. Early look at the parameter space shows some weak MUCAPE to support some elevated storm development. Bulk shear will be around 45 kts to help sustain some storm development with mid level lapse rates increasing in the late afternoon and evening as the upper level trough pivots. Some hail productions can't be ruled out at this time. By Friday we are looking at a very elongated system moving across the Plains that will likely draw in some gulf moisture. The surge of southerly winds will push our high temps into the 60s and 70s. Early AI NWP outlooks are painting NW WI for potential severe thunderstorms, which seems reasonable given the timing of the frontal passage among the deterministic guidance. On the backside of this system we will see a reintroduction of cold air from the NW with overnight lows dropping below freezing. Lingering moisture could wrap around into some snow showers. Given our warm temperatures through the forecast it is very questionable whether any of this would be able to stick. And even if it does we quickly warm back up into the 40s for Saturday and some 50s for Sunday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 MVFR to IFR conditions continue where stratus lingers this afternoon. Some may see some lifting before a warm front moves north and leads to scattered showers and thunderstorms, accompanied by MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities. Thunderstorms are most likely near HYR, with occasional large hail. All other terminals will likely only see rain showers. Fog and low stratus is expected to redevelop again tonight and will slowly lift once again tomorrow morning. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 235 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Areas of dense fog across the Lake this morning. This is expected to persist until late morning when it starts to erode. A low pressure moving across southern MN into central WI today will lead to an increase in northwesterly winds. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for this evening and go into Tuesday. Primary concerns are northeast winds gusting to 25 kts and building waves to 4 ft. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 235 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 No fire weather concerns at this time. Active weather pattern remains in place with multiple rounds of showers and storms keeping conditions moist through midweek. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 342 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Over the past 72 hrs we have had a few swaths of 0.25-0.50" over our existing snowpack into the Arrowhead and the South Shore. The highest swatch of over 1" ran through Sawyer into southern Ashland and Iron Counties. There is still some potential for storms to develop late this afternoon and evening and move across our Flood Watch counties, but chances have decreased as the warm front that will be the focal point for storm initiation is projected to be farther south. Additional rainfall of around 0.50" will be possible with locally higher amounts should any storms develop. Tuesday's activity also looks to be more light rain focused on northern MN. With this in mind we have opted to shorten the duration of the Flood Watch to Tuesday morning. An impressively warm day for Sunday has help to melt more of the snow pack. The South Shore saw temperatures climb into the 60s and 70s. And even the North Shore got in on some of the warmth action with highs capping out in the 50s. Modeled snow depth across the South Shore saw a significant decrease losing as much as 8" in just 24 hrs. The North Shore's >24" foot print has also been reduced from the Arrowhead to mainly the high terrain of the North Shore. It's hard to know the extent of how much water this has returned to the soil but across the South Shore it is likely in excess of 2". Taking a trip through some of river gauges does show some response to this added liquid from snow melt. Across the MN sites the river heights have increase 0.5-1.0' NW WI where we saw the more impressive melting has seen rises of 2-3' across several rivers. The Tyler Forks River near Mellen WI is still the primary concern with a Flood Warning already in effect. This river is expected to crest on Tuesday morning just below moderate flood stage and move out of minor flooding Thursday. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for WIZ002>004. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 8 AM CDT Tuesday for LSZ140-141. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Tuesday for LSZ142>147-150. && $$ DISCUSSION...Britt AVIATION...KML MARINE...Britt FIRE WEATHER...Britt HYDROLOGY...Britt  546 FXUS63 KTOP 131738 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1238 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... -Elevated fire danger prompts the need for a Red Flag Warning in north-central KS today. -Storms could impact far eastern KS Tuesday evening, bringing a threat for severe weather. -Additional storm chances occur Wednesday and again Friday, with more uncertainty on timing/location. -Cooler weather expected this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 340 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 This morning, surface low pressure sits over south-central Nebraska and a dryline extends southward through central portions of Kansas. A 50kt LLJ is pushing into east-central KS, which is allowing for some isentropic ascent early today. With that, a few small showers or storms may develop prior to sunrise. Forecast soundings show a strong low level inversion, but efficient mixing of the boundary layer into the afternoon will make for a warm and windy day. Temperatures will warm well into the 80s this afternoon and will approach 90 degrees in central KS. The dryline looks to mix eastward which will cause dew points to drop in central KS. The combination of low RH and strong winds has prompted the need for fire headlines for the far western portion of the CWA - see the fire section below for more details. Otherwise, POPs remain less than 15% later today without much in the way of forcing to get storms going. A better chance for storms will occur Tuesday evening as an H5 wave begins to approach the region from the west. Dew points will be highest across far east-central KS ahead of the aforementioned dryline. Forecast soundings ahead of that boundary show steep mid- level lapse rates, over 2500 J/kg of MLCAPE, 1000 J/kg of DCAPE and around 40 kts of effective shear. Storms that form in this environment will be capable of producing large hail and damaging wind. LCL's are a little high, but there is at least a low risk for a tornado. This threat, however, seems confined to a small portion of the area - highest in far east-central KS and moving into MO. For other locations, elevated fire danger conditions will again be a concern behind the dryline, although the threat does not look as extreme as today. A cold front will slowly work across the area on Wednesday as the main upper wave continues to move northeast from the High Plains into the Midwest. Another round of storms could develop along the front in the afternoon, but there are noticeable placement differences between models. The EC is further east into MO with the higher chances for storms while the GFS holds the front back in eastern KS a little longer. Thursday will be sunny and warm with highs in the mid 80s. A longwave trough will then progress over the western CONUS and enter the High Plains late Friday. Thunderstorms could again form in an unstable air mass ahead of a strong cold front Friday afternoon. This will be the next timeframe to watch for severe potential. Much cooler weather is then expected this weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1234 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Any isolated thunderstorms that develop late this afternoon and evening will remain southeast of the terminals. The strong winds of 22 to 30 KTS with gusts to 30 to 40 KTS will continue through the afternoon. Tonight the southerly winds will remain 12 to 18 KTS with gusts of 22 to 30 KTS, so there will only be moderate low-level windshear of 25 to 30 KTS. The next shift will need to monitor sfc winds this evening, if they do diminish then wind shear may need to be added to the TAFs Tonight. Southerly winds will pick up again during the mid morning hours of Tuesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 340 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 While green up of vegetation is underway, a Red Flag Warning has been issued today in north-central KS where gusty winds and low RH will combine to create extreme fire danger. Dew points are forecast to drop this afternoon in this area as a dryline moves east. Minimum RH behind the dryline could quickly fall to around 20 percent. South-southwest winds will be sustained at 15 to 20 mph with gusts as high as 30 mph throughout the afternoon. Similar conditions will be in place behind the dryline (mainly in central KS) on Tuesday, with minimum RH between 20 and 25 percent and continued gusty south-southwest winds. Fire headlines are not currently anticipated Tuesday, but future forecast shifts will have to evaluate the need closely. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008-KSZ020- KSZ034. && $$ DISCUSSION...Teefey AVIATION...Gargan FIRE WEATHER...Teefey  699 FXUS63 KARX 131738 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 1238 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe thunderstorms are expected (>70% chance) across southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin this afternoon and evening. Large hail of 2+ inches, damaging winds of 60-70mph, and heavy rainfall of 1-3" are all possible from these storms. There is narrow window of opportunity for a tornado threat, but if this threat is realized, a stronger tornado (EF2+) cannot be ruled out. - Additional severe storms are likely over northeastern Iowa and southwestern Wisconsin Tuesday afternoon. Large hail of 2+ inches will be the biggest risk with these storms, but wind and heavy rain hazards remain on the table. Where exactly storms form will be dependent on how storms today evolve. - Additional severe weather is possible both Wednesday and Friday. Details will become more clear as we get closer. - Warm week ahead with high temperatures in the upper 60s to upper 70s, cooling down for the upcoming weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1237 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Today: Severe Weather This Afternoon and Evening A surface low sitting over northeast Nebraska continues to make its way northeastward towards northern and eventually northeast Iowa. The low-level jet begins to increase by mid afternoon and reaches its strongest point during the evening with winds of 35 to 45 kts at 850 mb. Theta-e advection increases this afternoon, helping to reduce or knock out any remaining EML by the mid afternoon. This will result in rapid convective initiation along and north of the I- 90 corridor. Recent model trends have also started to show some convective initiation starting earlier this afternoon in northeast Iowa and far southwest Wisconsin. This will be something to monitor to see how it affects the rest of the afternoon. Discrete supercells look to be the dominant storm mode as the event gets underway. With very high mid-level lapse rates of 7.5 to 8.5 C/km and plenty of MUCAPE (2000 to 3000 J/kg), as well as curved and elongated hodographs, large to very large hail will be the primary threat with these initial storms. Right now, these storms appear to be strongest around the I-94 corridor in western Wisconsin and eastern Minnesota. There could always be some sort of wiggle with where exactly these storms end up as where these storms occur will be important for the next round of storms. Once these storms begin to congeal into a line, then the hail threat would diminish, however a wind threat would then be the primary threat. Looking at the tornado risk, the main initial risk will be right along the warm front, however given the favorable shear with a couple counties of the warm front, the tornado threat does remain for those locations, especially if cell mergers or other interactions occur. The early afternoon convection could have a tornado threat too as it rides along an elevated warm front. The one caveat to this is that there remains quite a bit of CIN to overcome to make these storms surface based, therefore the primary risk would be hail with these storms. For the afternoon and early evening, if storms can attach themselves to the warm front and have a somewhat deviant eastward storm motion. With the amount of low level SRH available, these right moving supercells would have the best chance at ingesting the most SRH. Even further south of the warm front provides a decent tornado potential given that by the mid afternoon, there will be little to CIN needed to overcome so any boundary or perturbation that kicks off a supercell would also have a tornado potential. Lastly, as the supercells congeal into a line and shift southeastward across portions of northeast Iowa, southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin the surface low moves up behind this line. This extra lift with a close to perpendicular 0-3km shear vector would indicate a QLCS tornado potential as this line propagates through the forecast area. In addition to this tornado threat, the wind threat would increase as the cold pools begin to form along the line. Make sure to stay tuned as we will have AFD updates during the afternoon and evening. With these repeated rounds of storms, there is also a heavy rain potential. PWATs of 1 to 1.3" are in the 99th percentile based on the NAEFS. This means that there will be plenty of potential moisture for storms to use up. The 12Z HREF LPMM shows a wide swath of 1 to 3" across western Wisconsin from I-94 down towards the I-90 corridor. With this being a convective nature compared to stratiform, there will be potential for the heavy rain corridor to shift. As a result we have issued a Flood Watch for most of western and central Wisconsin given that soils are saturated from the recent and that the 6 hour flash flood guidance from the NCRFC is roughly 2 to 3.5" across the watch area. Tuesday: Severe Weather Potential for Northeast Iowa and Southwest Wisconsin Storms from Monday will be out of the local area by early Tuesday morning. An upper level wave moves over the Upper Midwest and in conjunction with the cold pools from overnight, the moisture gets pushed southeastward setting up a moisture axis in far southwest Wisconsin and into northeast Iowa. The main uncertainty for Tuesday is how far south does the outflow from todays storm reach and if the boundary can shift northward at all. The 15Z RAP shows this via the theta-e advection where the boundary shifts into Grant county and gets pushed slightly further north into Crawford and Richland counties in Wisconsin and Allamakee, Clayton, Fayette counties in Iowa. Similar to today, the mid level lapse rates for Tuesday remain high, around 7.5 to 8.0 C/km, and there will be even more shear than today due to the upper level wave moving overhead. This would indicate a large hail risk being the primary threat. That being said, with the amount of low level SRH available, if a right moving deviant supercell can get going, this will provide a tornado risk. As cold pools develop from the storms in northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin, this would push any severe threat out of the forecast area by the middle of the evening. Wednesday-The Weekend: Warm Week with Multiple Storm Chances Heading into Wednesday, an upper level trough shifts over the central Plains and the Upper Midwest. There will be some morning convection in Iowa and into far southwestern Wisconsin. This may inhibit any severe potential, however a surface low shifts into central and into northern Iowa by the evening providing more lift as theta-e advection increases during the day. Based on the NAM and GFS there is a potential triple point that sets up in northeast Iowa, far southeast Minnesota, and southwest Wisconsin that would introduce a tornado threat near this occlusion. Other than this threat, there will also a be damaging wind and hail threat across the aforementioned areas. Thursday looks to be dry as we begin to transition back to southwest flow by late Thursday evening. The low-level jet increases during Friday afternoon helping to bring in higher PWATs. Based on the NAEFS, the PWATs for Friday are already in the 90th percentile for this time of year. Another severe weather chance is possible as we have this increased moisture ahead of a cold front that moves through the area late Friday night. Temperatures through the week will remain in the 60s and 70s until Saturday. Plenty of stormy weather is expected this week so make sure to stay tuned for further updates regarding todays severe weather threat as we will have updated discussions throughout the afternoon and evening highlighting any changes to the forecast. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1237 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Mostly MVFR to VFR conditions across the area currently with some lingering fog creating some IFR/LIFR CIGs/visibilities across SE Minnesota. All sites should improve to at least MVFR by mid afternoon before we start to see storms develop along a frontal boundary, currently just north of the terminals. Storms will likely create MVFR/IFR CIGs and visibilities as they move east across the region this evening and into tonight. After the storms move out an area of low stratus and fog will redevelop, especially across NE Iowa and SE Minnesota. This will mainly impact the KRST terminal but KLSE could see a few hours of BR, and potentially FG. Conditions should clear out through the morning hours tomorrow. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1237 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Heavy rainfall potential for today as PWATs remain in the 99th percentile. HREF LPMM shows a wide swath of 1 to 3" along and north of I-90. Due to the convective nature of these storms for today, the heavy rain swath could shift. With saturated soils, if 2 to 3" falls, this may cause flooding to occur, especially with 6 hour flash flood guidance of 2 to 3.5". Where the models have the heavy rain band set up right now, would mostly impact the Black and Wisconsin River basins. Another thing to watch out for is mudslides as we have not greened up so any area that has hills alongside a road could be susceptible to a mudslide. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Flood Watch from 4 PM CDT this afternoon through Tuesday morning for WIZ017-029-032>034-041>044-053-055. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cecava AVIATION...Barendse HYDROLOGY...Cecava  505 FXUS61 KPBZ 131739 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 139 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Given how the low level jet earlier today overperformed, decided address the winds for tomorrow as well. The threat for severe tomorrow continues to increase but the timing is still low confidence. Added cloud cover and potential for convection may hinder record highs a bit more than once thought. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Anomalously warm temperatures this week. Daily record high max and minimum temperatures will be challenged and possibly broken. 2) Increasing daily storm chances this week. Marginal Risk of severe weather on Tuesday north and west of Pittsburgh. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... The upper level pattern will continue to feature the ridge building in the east by Tuesday with the main ridge axis setting up over the Ohio Valley by 00Z Wednesday. The strength of the ridge seems to be as such where precip splits half the forecast from, north to south. This also provides an interesting situation where the southern portion of the forecast area could be breaking records rather than locations such as DUJ. This will mean that record heat will not be all encompassing. It is worth noting that warm lows may still be the case in these areas given the diurnal nature to some of the convection. This is further proven by the latest 13Z NBM showing the probability of surpassing 85 degrees, probs drop off significantly north of Allegheny County. The other sites, such as PIT, ZZV, PHD, and MGW have 60% to 80% of surpassing 85 degrees which would break much of the records in place at least on Wednesday. It would seem, Wed and Thu would be the best days to break records. The Saturday timeframe looks like records could be broken as well but Day 6 offers less confidence at this time. KEY MESSAGE 2... The SPC outlook still continues to highlight the northern half of the forecast area. The Marginal area still continues to highlight the wind potential but the hail potential remains still a plausible threat to remain. This is due to how quick the warm layer sets up just above 850MB. Some Hi-res models keep the warm layer in place but show quite a bit of elevated CAPE. This, with the fact that some model soundings are showing a strong right turn hodograph tomorrow afternoon. In analyzing the NBM for tomorrow, the late afternoon data, (21Z - 23Z), the mean for SB CAPE takes it over 1500 J/Kg, but if we have a weak cap in place, the 90th percentile SB CAPE soars over 2500 J/Kg for Tuesday evening over the northern forecast area. Certainly something to monitor. As well, the CWASP mean is already over 70% but at the chance of overperforming, CWASP soars to over 80%. The only concern for this potential is the timing and several hi-res models have different onset times ranging from noon tomorrow to 6pm tomorrow evening to even a round overnight. This will play into how well the warm layer sets up over the area. The rest of the week will be under the influence of rounds of convection each day. The max coverage and probability will be during the day or afternoon each day with some convection lingering into the overnight. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Continued gusty southwest winds up to 20kts to 30kts are most likely for the remainder of the day. Some meager shear and instability may allow for an afternoon shower or even storm, however models have been more bullish than reality thus far, opting to not include with this round with a low confidence of occurrence at any given port. Into tonight, some decoupling is expected, through shear is not expected to be as pronounced as the morning before. There may be a few showers in the vicinity of FKL/DUJ on a weak boundary, and perhaps a rumble of thunder, before the boundary pulls back north and rain chances increase into the early morning, turing slightly over to chances of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Guidance is highly split between the presence of these storms or not tomorrow, so only opted to include PROB30s for thunder at MGW and HLG for now, tied to the convective behavior modeled in the HRRR at this time. These thunderstorm trends are very likely to trend up or down: the forecast remains low confidence until models capture upstream convection from today. Chances of MVFR increase, mostly for FKL and DUJ tomorrow morning with more modeled low moisture. Outlook... There is potential for periodic restrictions and showers/ thunderstorms through Thursday as a surface front approaches and stalls across the Great Lakes region, and as waves of low pressure track along it. && .CLIMATE... See below for record max highs and max lows this week: Tuesday, April 15th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 86F (1883) 64F (1896) Wheeling, WV: 87F (1941) 60F (2014) Morgantown, WV: 86F (2018) 66F (2014) New Philadelphia, OH: 82F (2023) 56F (2006) Zanesville, OH: 87F (1941) 60F (1899) DuBois, PA: 86F (2023) 60F (2014) Wednesday, April 16th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 85F (1883) 61F (1967) Wheeling, WV: 82F (2010) 59F (2002) Morgantown, WV: 86F (1993) 65F (1967) New Philadelphia, OH: 82F (2010) 58F (2023) Zanesville, OH: 85F (1941) 61F (1972) DuBois, PA: 79F (2003) 56F (2002) Thursday, April 17th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 86F (2002) 63F (2017) Wheeling, WV: 86F (1945) 64F (2002) Morgantown, WV: 88F (2002) 64F (2012) New Philadelphia, OH: 85F (2002) 62F (2017) Zanesville, OH: 86F (2002) 65F (1912) DuBois, PA: 82F (2012) 59F (1976) Friday, April 18th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 87F (1896) 63F (1896) Wheeling, WV: 84F (2002) 64F (2002) Morgantown, WV: 89F (1976) 64F (1960) New Philadelphia, OH: 84F (2002) 60F (1982) Zanesville, OH: 88F (1896) 66F (1896) DuBois, PA: 83F (2002) 60F (2002) Saturday, April 19th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 90F (1896) 64F (1896) Wheeling, WV: 85F (2025) 63F (2002) Morgantown, WV: 92F (1976) 64F (2013) New Philadelphia, OH: 86F (1976) 57F (2019) Zanesville, OH: 92F (1896) 66F (1896) DuBois, PA: 87F (1976) 61F (2002) && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Shallenberger AVIATION...Milcarek  266 FXUS64 KEWX 131740 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1240 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New AVIATION (18Z TAFS)... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated late afternoon to evening storms over the southern Edwards Plateau and near the Rio Grande today and Tuesday. - Warm and humid conditions continue throughout the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1235 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 An upper-level shortwave is in the process of moving northeast out of our area, carving out marginally more stable and drier air behind it. Precipitable water values are expected to drop from about 1.8 inches to a still moist but more palatable 1.2-1.4 inches. This should lead to a decrease in shower activity Monday compared to the past few days, but low-level southerly flow and southwesterly flow aloft will still support a generally unsettled weather pattern. Isolated light showers are possible during the late morning hours over the Coastal Plains before mixing out in the afternoon. Later in the day, sufficient heating supports an isolated thunderstorm potential along the dry line over West Texas and Mexico, along with a marginal risk for mainly large hail. Some of these may drift towards the Rio Grande and southern Edwards Plateau near sunset. However, more stable conditions Monday night should keep these storms relatively short-lived with most not making it very far into our area. Conditions Tuesday support a similar evolution to Monday, with initiation along the dry line possible later in Tuesday afternoon over West Texas and the southern Edwards Plateau. The slight difference is that troughing over the western US will be closer to the area, driving more forcing for ascent and favoring an uptick in storm coverage and persistence relative to Monday. Highs both Monday and Tuesday are forecast to be in the 80s to low 90s, with humid air prevailing. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1235 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A prominent portion of vorticity on the leading edge of longwave troughing over the western US is forecast to move across the Central and Southern Plains Wednesday into Thursday. The approach of this disturbance is forecast to increase moisture advection into our area with an accompanying increase in rain and storm chances. The favored area for storm development is focused north of our region, but medium range models show extension of potentially a broken line of storms extending to areas north of the I-10 corridor sometime late Wednesday into early Thursday. Isolated threats for severe weather and excessive rainfall are possible with this activity. While the overall pattern of southwesterly flow continues after this midweek action, brief upper-level ridging in its wake looks to provide a brief window of respite from the active weather on Thursday, with slightly drier air aloft. Towards the end of the week, as the broad western US trough slides farther east, ensembles are in agreement that a decently strong mid-April cold front will approach South-Central Texas Saturday into Sunday. Rain and thunderstorms are probable on this front, but it is too early to gauge the severe weather and heavy rain risk. A period of below- average temperatures is possible behind the front with air spilling south from the Rockies, switching up the airmass over South-Central Texas to a drier and cooler one. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Primary concern will be development of MVFR/IFR CIGS at all sites tonight into late Tuesday morning/early afternoon before VFR returns. Winds will remain south to southeasterly at 5-15 kts through the period. DRT may experience some TSRA at the terminal, so a PROB30 was utilized from 03Z-07Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 69 84 69 85 / 10 0 10 30 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 69 84 67 84 / 10 0 10 30 New Braunfels Muni Airport 68 84 68 85 / 10 0 10 30 Burnet Muni Airport 68 82 66 80 / 10 10 20 40 Del Rio Intl Airport 70 84 69 84 / 50 40 60 30 Georgetown Muni Airport 68 82 67 81 / 10 0 10 40 Hondo Muni Airport 68 84 66 82 / 20 10 20 40 San Marcos Muni Airport 68 84 68 85 / 10 0 10 30 La Grange - Fayette Regional 69 85 69 86 / 0 0 0 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 70 84 69 84 / 10 0 10 40 Stinson Muni Airport 70 85 70 85 / 10 0 10 30 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Tran LONG TERM....Tran AVIATION...MMM  193 FXUS64 KLZK 131740 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1240 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 201 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 -Well above normal temperatures likely through Friday -Occasional chances for showers and thunderstorms will be in the forecast through Saturday -Expected QPF through the period remains low and will not greatly benefit short and long term rainfall deficits in place -A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from mid-week through Saturday, with the main focus across portions of northwest Arkansas && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 201 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible today as some weak shortwave energy traverses the SW flow aloft. Much of this activity will be seen from southwest to central to eastern portions of the state during the afternoon hours, with N/NW Arkansas likely remaining dry. Similar to yesterday's forecast, did lower POPs given expected coverage. Dry conditions will be seen on Tuesday across the state as the H500 ridge over the Gulf expands northward a bit. Well above normal temperatures are expected on Tuesday and through much of this week. Rain chances will increase Wed-Wed night, especially across northwest Arkansas as a stronger H500 shortwave trough lifts northeast from the Four Corners toward the Great Lakes. With the mid- level ridge persisting to the southeast, precip will struggle to expand eastward across AR Wed night through Thursday. But, with this trough being stronger than recent systems the ridge may retreat enough to allow meaningful precip to move across the state. There will be some potential for strong to severe thunderstorms during this timeframe, but the main focus looks to be across far northwest Arkansas and areas just to the west and north. A more robust H500 shortwave trough should move east across the middle of the country Fri-Sat. With a strong cold front at the sfc expected to accompany this system, more widespread precip is expected during this timeframe. In the wake of the trough, N-NW flow aloft will be in place and sfc ridging will build in from the NW. This will provide cooler temperatures by late weekend into the beginning of next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1237 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 For the 18Z TAFs... High MVFR to low VFR cigs are expected to hold over Arkansas over the next 24 hours. In a general sense, cloud heights will increase during the day and lower back down after midnight tonight lagging just behind the sun's daily heating and cooling cycle. Winds will be out of the south-southwest at 10 to 15 mph. There is a chance for a few showers and thunderstorms across central and southern TAF sites this afternoon and evening. Kept mention of weather out of individual TAF sites for now as confidence is too low that any of these storms will directly impact the 5 mile radius around an airport. Cavanaugh && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 68 84 67 84 / 10 10 10 20 Camden AR 63 85 62 84 / 10 0 0 10 Harrison AR 68 83 66 77 / 10 20 40 60 Hot Springs AR 64 82 63 82 / 10 10 10 20 Little Rock AR 66 84 66 84 / 10 10 0 10 Monticello AR 65 86 64 85 / 10 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 65 81 64 79 / 20 10 20 30 Mountain Home AR 68 84 66 80 / 10 20 20 50 Newport AR 68 85 67 85 / 10 10 0 10 Pine Bluff AR 65 86 64 85 / 10 0 0 0 Russellville AR 67 84 65 81 / 10 10 20 30 Searcy AR 65 85 64 84 / 10 10 0 10 Stuttgart AR 67 85 66 84 / 10 0 0 10 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....99 AVIATION...Cavanaugh  440 FXUS63 KGLD 131741 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1141 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Red Flag Warning is in effect for portions of northwest Kansas today, mainly south and east of Goodland where warm/dry conditions and SW winds at 15-25 mph w/gusts to 35 mph may lead to rapid wildfire growth this afternoon. - On Tuesday, continued warm/dry conditions and stronger SW winds may lead to dangerous fire weather over portions of the area during the afternoon and early evening, especially south of Interstate 70. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 225 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Synoptic Overview: Shortwave energy rounding the base of a broad trough along the southern Pacific Coast today will slowly track E across the Intermountain West/Desert Southwest (tonight), the 4-Corners (Tue) and central Rockies (Tue night). An associated mid-latitude cyclone will develop/deepen in the lee of the Colorado Front Range (Tue) and track east Today-Tonight: With relatively little change in the upper level pattern during the past 24-hr, i.e. WSW to SW flow aloft between an east CONUS ridge and a broad west CONUS trough, expect sensible weather conditions similar to Sunday.. including a similar potential for marginally critical fire weather over portions of northwest KS, mainly south and east of Goodland where a Red Flag Warning is in effect this afternoon. Tue-Tue night: Challenging forecast. A tightening MSLP to 850 mb height gradient and deep vertical mixing (possibly up to 550-500 mb or ~12-14 KFT AGL) on the east and southeast periphery of a deepening lee cyclone in Colorado will foster noticeably stronger SW winds over portions of the area, especially south of I-70 in Kansas during the afternoon and early evening when/where forecast soundings via the 00Z 04/13 GFS indicate 30-40 knot SW flow throughout the mixed layer.. even stronger (40-50 knots) with southern extent into southwest KS. However, the northern extent/magnitude of SW winds (and robust/dangerous fire weather) will highly depend on the precise evolution of the lee cyclone, which.. in all likelihood.. will track directly over some portion of the NWS Goodland county warning area during the afternoon and evening. In this particular pattern/setup, guidance suggests that precipitation chances will be far less dependent on the precise evolution of the lee cyclone, i.e. most, if not all, of the Goodland CWA will thoroughly be situated within the dry slot. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 100 PM MDT Sun Apr 12 2026 Shortwave trough axis will be traversing the area on Wednesday with widely scattered light rain showers in the wraparound. Despite the slightly cooler temperatures behind the associated cold front, northwest winds gusting 20-30 mph and afternoon relative humidity in the teens will combine for another possible day of critical fire weather. Main concern would be western and especially southwestern areas where humidity will be lowest (Colorado/Kansas border area). On Thursday will be between systems with a southwest flow aloft. Models not showing any embedded waves at this time so should be dry. The downsloping winds will dry out the low levels and humidity is forecast to drop to near 10% in the entire area. There is also a modest increase in wind speeds with gusts of 25-35 mph, highest south of Interstate 70. So, critical fire weather conditions will once again be possible. Next upper trough will be approaching the Rockies Thursday night and emerge onto the adjacent plains on Friday. Associated surface cold front will be traversing the forecast area at that time. Currently looks to be a dry front with the lead dry line sweeping the deeper moisture and precipitation well east of the area. Ahead of the front critical fire weather conditions will once again be possible. Operational models show the front bisecting the area at 18z lying roughly along Interstate 70, continuing south through the afternoon. North winds will be gusting 35-45 mph behind the front. Wraparound precipitation, in the form of snow, will develop in northeast Colorado Friday afternoon and then move into the area Friday night, but weakening as the upper support moves out. GFS, ECMWF and Canadian ensembles show accumulations of less than one inch. Any snow will be accompanied by gusty north winds of 25-35 mph. May see some lingering light rain/snow showers into Saturday, but not expecting anything significant and would not be surprised if it was dry. North winds continue to be gusty at 35-45 mph, but relative humidity is forecast to stay above 20% so may get a respite from the fire weather. Unfortunately that may not be the case for Sunday with gusty south winds, milder temperatures and lower humidity. Temperature trends for the period will start above normal on Wednesday (70s), then much above normal on Thursday (80s), near normal on Friday north of the front (50s and 60s) but above normal ahead of it (70s and 80s), below normal on Saturday (50s), and slightly above normal on Sunday (60s). Freezing temperatures will be possible both Saturday and Sunday mornings with lows in the 20s, otherwise lows will be in the 30s and 40s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1139 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 VFR conditions remain forecast for this TAF period gusts around 20 knots are forecast through the afternoon before becoming light and variable after sunset before gradually becoming northerly early Tuesday morning. There is potential for some LLWS again for each terminal but confidence is currently too low to include in this TAF. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 225 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Today: Marginally critical fire weather conditions (similar to Sunday) are expected over portions of northwest KS today, mainly south and east of Goodland where temperatures will reach the mid-upper 80's, humidity will bottom-out around 10% and SW winds at 15-25 mph may gust up to 35 mph, at times. For the remainder of the area, light (10-20 mph) WSW to SW winds will limit critical fire weather potential. Tuesday: Increasing potential for robust/dangerous fire weather on Tuesday, especially south of I-70 during the afternoon. Expect similarly warm/dry conditions but with stronger (25-35 G 45 mph) SW winds. Both the northern extent and magnitude of critical fire weather conditions will highly depend on the evolution and track of a deepening low pressure system in Colorado during the day. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for KSZ004-015-016-028-029-041-042. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Vincent LONG TERM...024 AVIATION...Trigg FIRE WEATHER...Vincent  962 FXUS62 KJAX 131741 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 141 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - High Risk of Rip Currents NE FL Beaches Today. Moderate Risk at SE GA Beaches - Fog Potential Each Morning through Friday - Extreme to Exceptional Drought Continues. Dry & Warmer This Week && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main Highlights Today and Tonight: - High Risk of Rip Currents lingers at NE FL beaches - Locally dense fog possible during late night/early morning hours High pressure conditions will continue through today and tonight with calm weather and easterly-southeasterly winds becoming more mild and variable this evening. High level clouds associated with moisture aloft will be in place over the region today, becoming less widespread overnight with a potential for patchy to dense fog developments over inland areas during the early AM hours. High temperatures this afternoon will rise into the mid to upper 80s for inland areas today and in the upper 70s and lower 80s along the coastline. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the mid 50s for inland areas and in the upper 50s and lower 60s for areas nearer to the shore. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Fog potential each morning, especially inland - Dry & warm weather to persist High pressure ridging both near the surface and aloft continues across the region through the next several days, with a mainly southeasterly flow in place and dry conditions with ample subsidence in place. Fire risk will remain elevated with the dry conditions and very warm temperatures. The only other noteworthy weather impact will be patchy to areas of fog each morning, with patchy "superfog" possible near smoke from any ongoing wildfires. High temperatures will into the 80s to around 90 are expected inland, with cooler temps in the upper 70s to mid 80s closer to the coast. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: - Dry weather persists overall with rising temperatures - Morning fog potential to continue each day Stacked high pressure looks to persist through at least the end of the work week and into the start of the weekend, with the building high pressure/subsidence aloft helping temperatures continue to rise towards near record highs, especially inland. High pressure breaks down a bit this weekend and into early next week as a front approaches on Sunday and likely moves through the region around Sunday Night and Monday, though early indications in guidance are a mostly or all dry frontal passage at this time. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... VFR conditions will be in place through the forecast period. Winds will maintain from out of the east this afternoon with sustained winds of about 10 to 15 mph with gusts of up to about 20-25 mph by around 14z-16z. Winds will become calm and variable during the evening and overnight hours, by around 00z-02z. && .MARINE... High pressure ridging will be the prevailing feature through mid to late this week, with flow gradually shifting more southeasterly over the next several days. Rip Currents and Surf: East swells and onshore flow will persist High Risk of rip currents at NE FL beaches today with surf/breakers 3-4 ft, but will lower to Moderate Risk at SE GA beaches with surf/breakers 2-3 ft. Likely will be able to lower to Moderate risk for all beaches from Tuesday through the remainder of the week as surf slowly subsides. && .FIRE WEATHER... - MinRH values near or below 30 percent inland this week Dry and warm conditions will persist through the next several days as high pressure remains in control. Flow will be mainly out of the southeast in the 10-15 mph range over northeast FL and 5-10 mph range across southeast GA during daytime hours, with the overall modest low level flow keeping dispersion values in the good to borderline high range. MinRH values in the upper 20s to low 30s of percent will be common inland through the next several days during peak mixing. Dry conditions and elevated fire danger overall look to continue through the rest of the week, with the next chance for any rain not expected until late this weekend, if at all. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Morning fog possible each day this week. Localized "superfog" possible each morning near the vicinity of any smoke from ongoing wildfires. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures at NE FL/SE GA climate sites: April 13: JAX 92/2001, CRG 91/2001, GNV 93/1922, AMG 88/2001 April 14: JAX 90/2007, CRG 90/2023, GNV 91/2019, AMG 91/2007 April 15: JAX 90/2006, CRG 91/2001, GNV 92/1936, AMG 91/1954 April 16: JAX 90/1972, CRG 91/2011, GNV 90/1967, AMG 92/1967 April 17: JAX 93/1967, CRG 90/2006, GNV 90/1945, AMG 91/1967 April 18: JAX 94/1967, CRG 89/2018, GNV 91/1967, AMG 92/1967 April 19: JAX 92/1995, CRG 91/2013, GNV 94/2011, AMG 91/1968 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 56 88 58 90 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 62 77 61 79 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 58 84 58 86 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 61 79 59 81 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 56 88 56 89 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 58 87 57 88 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ124- 125-138-233-333. GA...None. MARINE...None. && $$  999 FXUS63 KLMK 131741 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 141 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Scattered showers are possible today, with the highest chances (40- 60%) between sunrise and early afternoon. A stray storm cannot be ruled out, but severe weather is not expected. * Well-above normal temperatures continue throughout the upcoming week. A few temperature records may be in jeopardy. * Intermittent chances for showers and storms are expected this week. Best chances for rain and highest rainfall totals are favored along and north of the Ohio River and points northwest. Strong storms are possible Thursday and next weekend, but the probability remains low. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 338 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Today and Tonight... A mid-level shortwave is crossing the Midwest early this morning and is expected to continue off to the northeast later today. A 50-55 kt H85 jet associated with this wave extends from the Ohio Valley northward into the Great Lakes, and this southerly jet is attempting to moisten what is a very dry antecedent column across southern IN and central KY. Top-down saturation will continue later this morning, with HREF mean PW values expected to increase from less than 1" to 1.3-1.5" across the area later today. Between now and sunrise this morning, a low-level theta-E surge across southern IL and central IN will attempt to initiate scattered convection, some of which could drift across our northern counties this morning. A lack of deeper moisture farther to the southeast should cause any convection to weaken, so not expecting more than showers with a few rumbles of thunder possible. While the stronger 850 mb flow remains over the area, any showers could pull down 30-40 mph wind gusts, with this potential expected to diminish after sunrise. Later today, while the stronger forcing associated with the mid- level shortwave will be lifting well to the northeast of the area, the moisture plume brought into the Ohio Valley by this wave should linger overhead. As a result, while overall forcing and instability is very modest, hi-res guidance depicts isolated to scattered showers, with the greatest coverage expected between sunrise and early afternoon. 0Z HREF QPF localized prob.-matched mean suggests that most locations which receive rain today should see less than a few tenths of an inch, with "winners" receiving as much as half an inch. By mid-afternoon, a lack of a reinforcing shot of forcing/moisture should allow some of the moisture to mix out with daytime heating, limiting precipitation chances. However, we'll carry a 10-20% chance for a shower/storm into the evening for any isolated cells which could form thanks to differential heating. With the increased moisture and cloud cover today, we expect temperatures to take a small step down, with highs in the upper 70s and low 80s. South-southwest winds will be breezy through the day, with sustained 10-15 mph winds and gusts of 20-25 mph expected. Tonight, most if not all lingering diurnal cu should clear with scattered mid- and high-level clouds expected overnight. Mild southerly flow is expected to continue, though winds should be less gusty after sunset. Low temperatures will struggle to cool, with lows Tuesday morning expected in the 60s in most areas. Tuesday - Tuesday Night... No significant changes are expected in the synoptic pattern as we head into Tuesday, with warm SW flow continuing across the Ohio Valley. The most likely forecast for Tuesday (80-90% confidence) features dry conditions, as the upper ridge over the SE US is expected to limit convection in spite of elevated llvl moisture (HREF mean dewpoints in the low-mid 60s). However, there is a low chance for a few showers/storms to form in/near the northern CWA depending on what happens with upstream convection over the Great Lakes tonight. If storms are able to push farther south into Indiana before weakening Tuesday morning, there could be enough forcing along residual outflow boundaries to initiate isolated storms Tuesday afternoon. Short-range progs show 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE across southern/central IN Tuesday afternoon, though without notable forcing, the sounding profile would be capped. Otherwise, tomorrow will be very warm with breezy S/SW winds again expected. Mostly sunny skies should allow temperatures to warm into the mid 80s, with a few upper 80s possible along/west of I-65. Rinse and repeat Tuesday night as light S/SW winds should continue overnight, keeping low temperatures in the mid-to-upper 60s in most locations Wednesday morning. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 338 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Wednesday - Thursday Night... An upper-level trough will move from the SE CONUS towards the central Plains Wednesday and to the upper Midwest Thursday. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the trough axis, as well as along the associated surface low's cold front. The first wave will begin to move over the Ohio Valley early Wednesday morning, though the main core of activity will remain to our north. Chances during the morning are fairly low (15-20% for southern Kentucky and less than 15% for Kentucky), though will increase in the afternoon as diurnal heating allows for more showers and scattered thunderstorms to develop. Chances for showers will slightly increase over northern Kentucky and southern Indiana (20- 30%), with the rest of the CWA remaining below 15%. Southwesterly winds will keep our temperatures warm, with highs in the mid 80s. As the pre-frontal showers and storms depart to over northeast, activity Wednesday night will be calm, with lows only dropping into the mid-to-upper 60s. The cold front will move in from the west early Thursday morning, along with decaying showers and thunderstorms, some of which may be gusty. The line will move across the region before departing to our east Thursday night, with LREF guidance having the area get between 0.20" and 0.30" out of this event. Temperatures will be cooler even with winds continuing to prevail from the southwest, with highs in the upper 70s. Thursday night lows will also be cooler, dropping into the low 60s. Friday - Monday... The SE CONUS ridge re-establishes itself on Friday as the upper low departs to the east, with warm southwesterly flow returning to the region. Highs will jump back into the upper 80s during the afternoon, and conditions will be mostly dry. A small shortwave will move over the Ohio Valley Friday night that could skirt the northwest portions of our CWA, providing a quick round of showers and a few thunderstorms. The next point of concern comes on Saturday as the cold front of a strong surface low over the northern Plains moves towards our region, providing another round of showers and thunderstorms. The progression of the front will mainly be dependent on when the SE ridge gives way to the system, letting it progress eastward. Guidance is still uncertain on the timing of the frontal passage, with some models being more progressive and having it enter the area late afternoon, with other models being much slower and having it move through after sunset. This will be something we continue to monitor as the week progresses, as the timing will play a role on how warm we get and the intensity of those showers and storms as they move through. Much calmer and cooler conditions follow behind the front, with dry weather expected for the remainder of the forecast period. Temperatures on Sunday and Monday during the afternoon will only get into the mid-to-upper 60s, with lows in the low 50s Saturday night and dropping into the low 40s Sunday night. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 140 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 VFR conditions are ongoing for the whole area despite lingering rain showers near LEX and over RGA. Showers will clear the area with a small chance of an isolated shower or storm this afternoon, though confidence is so low this was not explicitly included in forecast. Messy cloud decks of SCT-BKN near 10 kft and BKN-OVC near 25 kft will stick around this afternoon with more high level clouds overnight. SW to S winds 5-10 kts will persist throughout the whole period, and wind gusts of 15-25 kts will continue until sunset. From west to east beginning at 05Z, a low level jet will move in with winds from the SW of up to 40kts ending from 11-13Z. BWG may avoid this threat as the jet looks to stay too far north for them. Otherwise, wind gusts of 15-20 MPH return tomorrow morning area wide with VFR conditions expected through Tuesday morning. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CSG LONG TERM...BEN AVIATION...BKF  903 FXUS63 KFSD 131742 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 1242 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated fire danger this afternoon and evening across south central South Dakota with humidity below 20% and west wind gusts around 20 mph. - Thunderstorms return this afternoon and evening. Scattered strong to severe storms expected - greatest risk for southwestern Minnesota into adjacent areas of South Dakota and Iowa. Timing of greatest concern is 3 to 9 PM. - Main hazards are large hail to 2 inches in diameter and wind gusts to 70 mph. A tornado or two are also possible. Have a severe weather plan and multiple ways to receive warnings. - Periodic chances (20-60%) for showers and thunderstorms continue this week. Details remain uncertain at this time. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 243 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026 Fire danger persists this afternoon along and west of I-29. More details can be found in the fire weather discussion below. Breezy westerly winds persist with high temperatures warming to the 70s to low 80s, making for a warm April day. Fire danger will come to an end this evening as temperatures cool and winds weaken. Low temperatures will fall to the upper 40s and 50s overnight. Winds will turn to out of the south/southeast on Monday, resulting in moist southerly flow and moistening dew points back into the 40s, 50s, and even low 60s. High temperatures will warm to the upper 70s and 80s across the area as a warm front pushes northwards. There remains uncertainty in where the warm front sets up. Some of the latest hi-res models bring the warm front to the vicinity of highway- 14. Some push the front just north of the highway while others are just south. This will have a big effect on any severe storm potential during the afternoon hours tomorrow. A stout elevated mixed layer (EML) will be in place. Sounding climatology would place this EML at the very top of climatology for this time of year! This EML will result in capping across the warm sector, limiting more widespread convective coverage. It could completely prohibit any storms from developing across the area though again that depends on where the warm front sets up. This uncertainty also extends to the location of the surface low tied to the warm front. Latest ensembles are in line with the latest hi-res guidance in lifting the surface low through the center of the forecast area. This would then turn surface winds to out of the west both within and behind the low. The westerly winds will advect much drier air into the area. This drier area will make for a much narrower warm sector with the best instability residing just along the warm front itself where moisture is still able to pool. CAPE values look to reach up to 1500 to 2000+ J/kg along the front in tandem with more than sufficient vertical shear in place thanks for an upper level jet sitting over the area. As of now, the best convergence along the warm front is along highway-14 from Brookings, South Dakota to Marshall, Minnesota. This looks to be the main area for convective development as sufficient low level moistening and convergence looks to be just enough to overcome the cap. Should storms develop, it looks to be a smaller number of storms, only about 1 to 3 storms. Thus, large hail up to 2 inches in diameter, 70 mph winds, and an isolated tornado is possible. The main timeframe for convection would be between 3 pm to 10 pm. Tuesday will be a quieter day as Monday's boundary will be pushed off to the southeast. This will keep any instability along with strong to severe storm chances out of the area. However, there remains the potential for some light rain if a deformation zone can set up. Though if it does, any rainfall would be light at a tenth of an inch or less. Tuesday will also be slightly cooler with high temperatures in the upper 60s to upper 70s. Chances for strong to severe storms look to continue through the rest of the week. Wednesday could be the next chance for severe weather as medium range guidance shows another wave pushing through the area. These models do show that this wave may close off which could bring a warm front further north, thus bringing more instability with it. As of now, the ensembles show the low staying south and east of the forecast area. Will still keep an eye on trends over the coming days in case the low comes north. As of now, high temperatures look to warm to the upper 60s to low 70s. Thursday looks to be a quiet day as shortwave ridging pushes through the Plains. A stronger upper level wave looks to eject into the Plains on Friday. A stronger cold front will be tied to this wave. Severe storms could be possible along this front though currently medium range guidance shows the cold front either just about to fully pushing through the forecast area by Friday evening. This could preclude severe weather chances if the front pushes through the forecast area quickly. Something to keep an eye on as we progress through the week. Chances for precipitation could continue through Saturday before dry conditions return for Sunday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1241 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms are expected to develop this afternoon, especially east of I-29 into southern Minnesota and northern Iowa. Enough confidence to at least include a PROB30 group for thunderstorms at KFSD, but it looks like storms should stay largely east of KSUX and KHON. Storms will be capable of large hail and damaging winds. Showers and storms will quickly push off to our east this evening, leading to quieter conditions overnight. Some patchy fog is possible mainly over portions of northwest Iowa and southwest Minnesota Tuesday morning. A frontal system will move across the area today, changing winds from a more southerly direction to a more northerly direction as we head into the evening hours. Winds turn mainly light and variable overnight and stay fairly light through the end of the period. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Meyers AVIATION...Samet  045 FXUS63 KDMX 131742 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 1242 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...Updated for the 18z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Limited storm coverage in Iowa today due to a strong cap, except a conditional Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) over northern Iowa if storms can initiate or move in from the north. - Higher confidence of severe storms and locally heavy rainfall on Tuesday. Portions of central/eastern Iowa upgraded to a Enhanced Risk (Level 3 of 5) with all severe hazards possible. - Additional periods of severe storms and locally heavy rainfall on Wednesday and again on Friday followed by a cooler weekend. - Warm and breezy today through Friday with highs in the 70s and 80s. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 232 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Main point, an active and challenging forecast through Friday! We'll try to break down the key points: Today and tonight...Primary Severe Risk is northern Iowa... A southwesterly upper flow pattern will continue across the upper Midwest with an attendant sfc low developing in the SD/NE/IA tri-state area. Moderate to strong WAA in the 850-700mb layer today will advect a seasonally strong EML across IA through afternoon. Several models try to develop isolated elevated showers/t-storms as the deeper moisture/theta-E returns, which is possible in these WAA regimes. Model consensus then shows Iowa in the "capped" warm sector through early evening, with model soundings indicating the possibility of low level stratus and robust values of MLCIN. The one important change from yesterday is that position of the sfc low and associated warm frontal feature has been nudged southward a bit, with the warm front now extending eastward generally along the MN/IA state line. As noted, due to the magnitude of the CIN, and overall weak background forcing, feel that convective initiation will be difficult to achieve over IA, which is supported by a vast majority of the deterministic and CAM solutions, and the SPC Day 1 Outlook. It should be noted that a few CAM solutions do try to initiate storms across far NW IA or SRN MN, near the triple point of the sfc low, which would then track across far northern IA. If a storm "could" get going, the CAPE/shear parameter space would be favorable for supercells, including very large hail, severe winds, and a possible tornado. At this point, confidence for severe storms in IA is low (<20%). A more likely scenario is late afternoon/evening CI occurring north in SD/MN, with additional convective coverage in the evening and overnight as the nocturnal LLJ strengthens. A few of these storms or convective cluster, could try to advect swd into the instability axis, and scrape the far northern IA counties. Bottom line, key features to watch today are 1) warm front position; 2) stratus development; 3) magnitude of MLCIN. It will be breezy and warm today, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s, assuming breaks in the stratus. Again, not expecting a ton of activity tonight, except perhaps across far northern IA as mentioned above. Tuesday...Highest Severe Risk across central and eastern Iowa... As noted in previous discussions, the convective evolution today/tonight often plays a major role what happens in subsequent days, so details for Tuesday may need to be adjusted. With this in mind, the synoptic pattern is not expected to change much Tuesday. However, a slightly stronger upper shortwave is progged to move across the Midwest on Tuesday afternoon providing more support for lift. In addition the sfc low is expected to reorient and sag southward into western Kansas with the sfc boundary extending newd from NW MO, across central IA, and into the Great Lakes region. Strong destabilization by late afternoon, and frontal convergence should initiate at least scattered storms along the front by evening, aided by the LLJ. The highest potential for storms attm is across east-central Iowa, where the SPC has introduced the Enhanced Risk (Level 3 of 5). Strong instability, steep lapse rates, and very strong winds aloft /0-6km shear of 50-60kts/ would support supercell development and all convective hazards, in particular very large hail per sounding analogs. With high PWATs, locally heavy rainfall is also possible, especially with any training storms. Tuesday is defintely a day to watch closely. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 243 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026 Wednesday...Highest severe risk in the eastern half of Iowa. Many details remain in question for Wednesday due to proceeding days convection. However, latest deterministic and ensemble guidance suggests Wednesday may have a more dynamic shortwave and deeper sfc low (perhaps sub 1000mb), and the triple point over IA. High convective impact ceiling if things evolve badly. Thursday...looking like a "lull" day as the synoptic pattern reorganizes. Friday...Perhaps the strongest upper shortwave and closed low, attendant sfc low, and strong cold front. Many details yet to be determined. Next Weekend...much cooler behind a strong cold front, possible showers. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1241 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A mix of VFR and MVFR CIGs cover Iowa currently and CIGs will continue to improve through the afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected near the IA/MN border this evening, though uncertainty remains in the southward extent so PROB30s are introduced for MCW/ALO. Strong flow off the ground through the overnight will induce LLWS for mainly the KOTM/KALO sites, but marginal LLWS will exist at KDSM as well. This is omitted from the KDSM TAF in this update, but trends in shear magnitude will be monitored. Lastly, increased humidity will fill in behind a front tomorrow morning, bringing in lower ceilings and fog, mainly for KMCW/KALO/KFOD. Fog is expected to be patchy, but IFR thresholds could be crossed for brief periods. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Fowle LONG TERM...Fowle AVIATION...Ansorge/De Bruin  432 FXUS63 KMQT 131742 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 142 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of showers and thunderstorms lifts into the UP tonight through Tuesday morning. There is a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms for the stateline border counties. - Heavy rain will exacerbate ongoing flooding concerns. There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 4) for flash flooding with tonight's rainfall event. - A prolonged period of well above freezing temperatures and higher dewpoints will bring increased snowmelt. This, combined with periods of potential heavy rain and thunderstorms, will accelerate river rises and lead to ponding of water in areas with poor drainage. A Flood Watch remains in place for all of Upper Michigan through Wednesday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 338 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Early morning GOES water vapor imagery reveals a handful of embedded shortwaves lifting through the Great Lakes region within broad southwest flow aloft. At the surface, a weakening ~994 sfc low is lifting north of Lake Superior into James Bay, dragging its sfc cold front across the central UP (at the time of writing this discussion). Some light showers are noted on KMQT radar imagery along this boundary, though they have been slowly tapering off as the front becomes more diffuse and upper level support departs the area. These light showers may continue to skirt along the UP/WI border through this morning with not much more QPF expected. Otherwise, temps remain quite warm, hovering largely in the mid to low 50s though a few 40s are seen closer to the lakeshores and near 60 obs seen across the s-central. Patchy dense fog is also noted on area obs/webcams given the anomalously high moisture content. Impressively dense advection fog seen earlier this morning here at the WFO in Negaunee Township has since diminished, but wouldn't be surprised to see lingering fog come back in as winds diminish through sunrise. Through this afternoon, a brief period of upper level zonal flow and northern Ontario sfc high pressure keep things mostly quiet under cloudy skies. Temps across the south-central and SW climbs into the low to mid 60s while the northern tier of the UP remains in the low to mid 50s, mid to upper 40s closer to Lake Superior. Another round of soaking rain and potentially some marginally severe thunderstorms arrives this evening into the overnight hours as sharp mid-level shortwave lifts out of the Rockies into the Upper Midwest, however, there is uncertainty regarding the spatial coverage of thunderstorms and thus the heaviest QPF axis. Isentropic ascent along and ahead of a surface warm front will be the focal point for showers and thunderstorms lifting northward along the stateline by ~10 PM EDT. Elevated instability between 500-1000 j/kg and effective bulk shear near 40 kts may support a few strong to severe storms capable of producing 0.5-1" hail, mainly closer to the stateline border counties. For this reason, SPC has included a level 2/5 Slight Risk for the UP/WI border counties with a level 1/5 Marginal Risk further north into the central and west where the threat for severe storms is limited. Additionally, given the anomalously high moisture content (PWATs in the 99th percentile of climatology), heavier thunderstorms will be efficient rain makers. With antecedent conditions already primed from recent rain and ongoing snowmelt, flooding concerns remain the greatest threat. WPC holds a level 1/4 Marginal Risk for flash flooding across the entire UP today. As mentioned previously, there remains uncertainty regarding the spatial extent of precip lifting into the UP tonight. Individual CAM guidance differs on the placement of the heaviest QPF axis, with the latest HREF suggesting a 40-60% chance for most of the s-central receiving an additional 1" of rain by Tuesday morning. Meanwhile the NBM (and a few CAMs such as the HRRR) ensemble shunts most of the QPF further south across central WI. Trends in CAM guidance will be closely monitored and the going forecast, which has a widespread 0.5- 1" across the central and eastern UP, may need to be altered. Above normal temperatures and above freezing dewpoints (save for potentially the Keweenaw) remain through the rest of this week as an additional round of precipitation via a shortwave low looks to move into the area on Thursday. Similar flooding concerns are anticipated. Behind this third round of rain, expect the warmest temperatures of the week as highs potentially get into the lower 70s over the interior west by Friday (the NBM shows up to around a 75% chance of high temperatures above 70 for the interior west). With winds also predicted to intensify from the south ahead of a robust cold front, we could see more significant snowmelt across the area where snowpack still remains. Heavy rain showers and thunderstorms could also be seen along the cold front as it passes through the U.P. from west to east too, potentially bringing elevated flooding concerns once more. However, behind the cold front, expect a pattern shift as more normal to below normal temperatures become realized. In addition, we may see the return of light lake enhanced to lake effect snow showers across the northwest wind snow belts next weekend. Should this occur, the colder air from behind the stout cold front will limit snowmelt and help to reduce flooding concerns as we head into next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 142 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Fog, dense at times, and low stratus will continue to impact the TAF sites through the forecast period. IWD and CMX will be mainly MVFR this afternoon. Moist air interacting with the snowpack and upslope flow will continue to result in LIFR and VLIFR at SAW. Showers are also expected to overspread the area tonight, an isolated thunderstorm is also possible. Rainfall, in addition to overnight cooling will help to reinforce the low level moisture with widespread IFR and LIFR developing overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 338 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A passing cold front has largely shifted winds to the NW this morning, diminishing below 25 kts. A Marine Dense Fog Advisory remains in place through this morning and may be extended further into the day based on local observations and trends. Winds remain below 15 kts this afternoon, however, a low pressure lifting through the area kicks up breezy E to NE winds (largely below 25 kts save for the eastern arm of the lake) tonight with a chance for a few strong thunderstorms. Moving through the rest of the week, winds look to mostly stay 20 knots or less across the lake. Another shot at showers and thunderstorms is possible on Thursday. More active marine weather returns next weekend. The latest ensemble guidance suggests a 30-50% chance for Gales to 35 kts Friday through Sunday with the passage of a few stronger systems, though there remains high uncertainty regarding the exact track. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 338 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 In response to the rainfall and widespread above freezing ambient and dewpoint temperatures through the the rest of the workweek, river rises are expected across Upper Michigan as the remaining snowpack melts away. In addition, the heavy rainfall at times may accelerate the liquid entering into the streams, rivers, and waterways of the UP, especially across the south-central UP where expected rainfall tonight in combination with yesterday heavy rain will exacerbate flooding already felt. River observations and forecasts have increased in measured and expected water level heights, with Moderate Flooding still expected for the Paint River in Crystal Falls the Sturgeon River in Alston; the latest River Forecast for Crystal Falls has the Paint River getting up to a height of 8.2 feet, but with the river observations already exceeding the river forecast, its possible record flooding could be seen (9.8 feet). Elsewhere across Upper Michigan, other rivers have been put under a River Flood Advisory as they are expected to get to bankfull; however, uncertainty still remains on whether or not they will achieve flood stage as it will depend on the speed of snowpack melt and rainfall this week. The rivers are: the Black River near Bessemer, the Chocolay River at Harvey, and the Middle Branch of the Escanaba River at Humboldt. As of this morning, the Black River had over a 30% chance of getting into Minor Flood Stage. Meanwhile, the Chocolay at Harvey and the Middle Branch of the Escanaba River at Humboldt have over a 50% chance of reaching Minor Flood Stage later this week. Eastern Delta County has received enough rain yesterday that the latest observations already show the Sturgeon River near Nahma Junction already at bankfull; thus a River Flood Advisory remains for it until further notice. Outside of these spots, others like the East Branch of the Escanaba River at Gwinn and the Michigamme River at Witch Lake could get to bankfull or more later this week. This morning's HEFS guidance suggests there is a 70% chance that the Escanaba River in Gwinn gets to Minor Flood Stage. Outside of these rivers, there may be additional spots where flooding and bankfull stages could be achieved. In addition, expect the saturated soils over the U.P. to potentially keep the poor drainage and low-lying areas inundated with water. Therefore, if you see any flooding please report it to the NWS and go around it; turn around, don't drown. Aside from the expected rainfall tonight, additional chance for precipitation are expected again later this week into the following weekend. With snowmelt continuing until a cold front passes Friday night, flooding concerns continue until colder air arrives by Saturday. With the warmest weather expected on Friday, expect snowmelt to accelerate as winds pick up from the southeast and south and dewpoints reach up to around 50 once again. Thus, we may see river rises intensify late this week as the rainfall along the cold front combined with the snowmelt could exacerbate river rises and flooding across the Upper Peninsula. However, after the cold front passes early Saturday, expect the snowmelt to become limited if not cease entirely as light lake enhance to lake effect snow moves over the northwest wind snow belts. With cooler and drier weather expected this upcoming weekend, we may see flood concerns start to alleviate by the end of the forecast period. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for MIZ001>007-009>014- 084-085. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BW AVIATION...NL MARINE...BW HYDROLOGY...  907 FXUS63 KILX 131743 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1243 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - The stretch of warm weather is expected to last through Friday, with daily temperatures climbing near 80 degrees, and at times, the mid-80s. Breezy winds, occasionally reaching 25-35 mph, will accompany this warm period. - This week will be riddled with thunderstorm potential. Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday currently exhibit the highest probability (15-30%) of severe weather. - There is also potential for substantial accumulative rainfall throughout the week, with our multi- model ensemble predicting a medium (40-60%) chance of exceeding 2 inches through Saturday in areas north of Interstate 72. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1040 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Updated the forecast a few times this morning with increasing chances of convection over the nw half of CWA rest of today, with highest chances over IL river valley. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms were currently over the IL river valley with a cluster of thunderstorms west of Macomb and just north of Keokuk Iowa and tracking ENE. Highs in the low to mid 80s look on track with breezy SSW winds gusting 25-30 mph with more moist dewpoints in the 60s today. SPC day1 update has expanded marginal risk of severe storms this afternoon about as far south as I-72 with slight risk in northeast Marshall county. Per SPC discussion...A subtle mid level short wave was supporting this convection despite a weak cap in place. Steep mid level lapse rates and 30-40 kt effective shear could support initially isolated hail potential, but a more organized surface-based severe risk could manifest if some of the more- aggressive early morning short term guidance trends materialize (HRRR/RAP/RRFS). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 257 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .Pattern Recognition... A strong pattern of low-level warm air advection will usher in a week of weather more typical of early June than mid- April, characterized by hot and humid conditions. High temperatures will generally reach near 80 degrees, and at times, the mid-80s. This pattern is driven by an active upper- level flow, with two vigorous troughs moving inland from the West Coast over the next seven days. With persistent troughing over the western U.S. and a continuous northward surge of Gulf moisture up the Mississippi Valley, intermittent periods of thunderstorm activity are favored. However, significant forecast uncertainty remains regarding the exact timing and location of these storms. Vigilance will be necessary not only for severe weather but also for localized flooding as successive convective events may compound throughout the week. .Monday... Atmospheric instability will increase across the region today due to the advection of a robust Elevated Mixed Layer (EML) across the Central Plains toward the Upper- Mississippi Valley. This will occur atop a veering low-level jet axis extending roughly from central Oklahoma to southeast Wisconsin. Warm and humid surface conditions are anticipated, with surface temperatures near 80 F and dewpoints in the 60s. This boundary layer environment is expected to boost surface-based CAPE to approximately 2000 J/kg, particularly in areas near and west of Interstate 55. Despite the high CAPE, the overall threat for thunderstorms appears low. Residual subsidence and a marginal increase in mid- level height tendencies behind last night's shortwave trough are expected to maintain a strong and persistent cap, as indicated by various model soundings. Given the absence of a robust forcing mechanism, the most likely scenario is no thunderstorm activity today. Only the 00z HRRR and ARW models break the cap, suggesting isolated development north of a Macomb to Bloomington line, primarily across northern Illinois between Noon and 4pm. This area is closer to the low-level jet axis and in the vicinity of the EML/better lapse rates. The chance of storms is low (20-40%), but if the cap erodes in this localized area, the favorable CAPE/shear parameter space would support supercells or multicell clusters capable of producing large hail and damaging thunderstorm winds. .Tuesday... The potential for severe convection on Tuesday is conditional, stemming from moderate instability. This instability is supported by surface temperatures near 85 F, dewpoints in the 60s, and favorable mid-level lapse rates, all of which will align with an intensifying mid-level jet. However, the synoptic forcing remains somewhat nebulous. The main surface front appears north of our forecast area; the position of any convective outflows are currently unknown; and there is no strong shortwave lifting across the region. Mesoscale soundings show a "loaded gun" profile, but the trigger mechanism for storm initiation remains unclear into the afternoon and early evening hours. Consequently, significant uncertainty exists regarding the timing and location of storm development, and CAMs are struggling to accurately depict the initiation and evolution of storms on Tuesday. Global models are indicating the higher probability of widespread convection late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. This activity is tied to a strengthening low-level jet and an initial shortwave disturbance ejecting ahead of a more potent trough tracking across the lee of the Rockies. While the exact path of this leading wave is still uncertain, the favorable CAPE/shear environment is expected to support elevated supercells and multicell clusters over central or northern Illinois. Potential hazards include large hail, isolated downburst winds, and localized heavy rainfall. .Wednesday & Thursday... The forecast for Wednesday is also conditional, largely dependent on the persistence and location of convective outflow/debris from the preceding night. The ECMWF suggests this debris may linger over our area through Wednesday morning, preceding the main upper trough. In contrast, the GFS places the debris further north, closer to the surface front. If our area is largely clear by Wednesday morning, there is a risk of severe weather and localized flash flooding in the afternoon. However, if convective debris covers the area, the risks of severe weather and flash flooding will be significantly reduced. Regardless of the Wednesday outcome, Thursday looks to be a region-wide break from precipitation due to synoptic-scale subsidence moving in behind the departing upper trough. .This Weekend... Thunderstorm activity is then expected to return over the weekend, specifically Friday night into Saturday. This is associated with a compact shortwave trough lifting across the Mid- Mississippi Valley ahead of a pivoting, more vigorous trough and its accompanying cold front. The CAPE/shear parameter space once again appears volatile enough to support an organized severe convective risk, even though the front appears to pass during a diurnally unfavorable time. Following the cold frontal passage, temperatures will cool significantly from Saturday night through Monday as the warm, moist air mass from the previous week is flushed out. The latest NBM deterministic guidance supports Sunday afternoon high temperatures near 60 degrees, with overnight lows around 40 degrees. Frost potential is non-zero during this time, and will need to be monitored with subsequent updates. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1243 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Breezy south-southwest winds will continue through the TAF period as a low pressure system passes by to the north. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are ongoing in west-central Illinois early this afternoon and may linger through at least early this evening. Although confidence remains somewhat low in coverage and timing of storms, the best chances appear to be at northern airfields (KPIA, KBMI, KCMI), which is where PROB30 groups are mentioned. Ceilings outside of shower and storm activity should be VFR through most of the TAF period, with a low to moderate chance (30-50%) for MVFR ceilings spreading in after 12Z. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...MJA UPDATE...07 DISCUSSION...MJA AVIATION...NMA  743 FXUS61 KCLE 131743 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 143 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Overall, no major changes needed with this forecast. There are some concerns of decaying convection moving into the area tonight, although confidence remains low at this point. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Unsettled weather likely as early as tonight and on Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Some storms may be strong to severe late Tuesday into Tuesday night. 2) An active weather pattern will present multiple chances for rain and thunderstorms for mid to late week. 3) Above average temperatures are expected to persist for the next several days. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Unsettled weather is expected through late Tuesday. There's some potential for isolated strong storms tonight, although a greater risk exists for Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Warm/moist southwest flow is expected across the area over the next couple of days as a warm front continues to lift away from the CWA and settles over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. Scattered/periodic light rain showers are likely across the area through the daytime hours today. It will also be quite gusty with southwest wind gusts to 25 to 35 mph likely this morning through this afternoon. By this evening, a weakening complex of storms may approach from the west or northwest, although there is very low confidence in the timing, placement, and coverage of convection due to weak forcing and uncertainty in instability this far southeast. The best coverage of showers/storms will be closer to a frontal boundary to the north/northwest of the CWA. Nonetheless, if storms do manage to move into the area overnight, elevated instability and a LLJ over the region support low-end threat of some isolated gusty winds and hail, primarily across NW OH which is clipped by a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe weather. Attention then turns to Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night as somewhat better upper level support arrives from the west in response to a deepening trough over the Plains. The local area will remain in the warm sector throughout the day Tuesday and expect MLCAPE values of 1500 to as high as 2500 J/kg across much of the area with a strong LLJ will moving into the region late in the day and into the night. Effective bulk shear and 0-6 km shear values will reach about 30 to 40 knots in the northern half of the area as better winds aloft move into the region Tuesday evening, which would support a line or broken line of strong thunderstorms. All hazards will be on the table, although damaging winds and large hail will be the primary concerns. There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather across northern Ohio with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) across the remainder of the CWA. There are several limiting factors that could throw a wrench into things, however. First, any scattered showers or storms early in the day or convective debris from Monday night showers/storms could keep clouds around and limit destabilization. Second, forcing will be somewhat weak with the best forcing to the north of the local area. Third, a capping inversion will likely be in place and this will need to be broken for any stronger convection to develop. And fourth, the evening/night timing of convection would be diurnally unfavorable, resulting in a more stable atmosphere (or perhaps more elevated instability) by the time convection moves into the CWA. Long story short, there's high confidence in scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday into Tuesday night, although confidence in the timing and likelihood of severe weather is quite low at this point and will likely rely on mesoscale features that have not yet been resolved. KEY MESSAGE 2... Periodic showers and thunderstorms will continue throughout the majority of the week as a frontal boundary wavers over the Upper Great Lakes and Upper Midwest and the local area remains in the warm sector. The timing of any showers/storms will rely on the timing of weak disturbances that ripple across the frontal boundary, but as of now it appears that PoPs will peak on Wednesday as low pressure lifts northeast into the Upper Midwest. Confidence in any stronger convection is low at the moment. Precipitable water values will be unseasonably high at 1.2 to 1.5 inches Wednesday into Thursday and there may be a brief period with a swath of higher PWATs across the northern part of the area on Wednesday. This could result in periods of moderate to heavy rainfall rates in showers/storms which could lead to isolated instances of flooding and rises on the most responsive creeks and streams. Fortunately, the recent stretch of drier weather has allowed antecedent conditions to trend a bit drier, which will help mitigate the onset of flooding unless repeated rounds of heavy rain move over the same locations/basins. A brief period of drier weather is likely as the aforementioned frontal boundary finally pushes south of the area, but rain chances will quickly return as the next system approaches from the west late Friday into Saturday. KEY MESSAGE 3... Persistent warm air advection will result in temperatures that are well above normal through the first half of the weekend. Widespread highs in the 70s are expected through Saturday with periods of lower 80s likely across portions of the area. Lows will also be well above normal in the 50s and 60s. For reference, average high temperatures for this time of year are generally in the upper 50s and lower 60s. && .AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/... Low-end VFR is observed across the majority of the terminals with pockets of MVFR ceilings occurring occasionally. Expect to remain VFR through tonight and tomorrow morning ahead of showers/thunderstorms. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty in the spatial extent of the thunderstorms tonight so continued the PROB30 lines. Timing wise, the potential has remain consistent, starting at 01Z for the western sites and then 06Z for the eastern sites. Non-VFR visibility and ceilings will be possible in thunderstorms if they move over stations. Early morning tomorrow, non-VFR ceilings are probable across the region and should persist through the end of the TAF period, though KCLE will rise to VFR given the longer period. There is potential for another round of showers/thunderstorms mid- morning tomorrow, though confidence again is low in the timing and spatial extent so opted to add a PROB30 for those as well. Winds will be gusting up to 25 knots out of the southwest through around 00Z tonight before subsiding. Overnight winds will be sustained around 10-12 knots then begin gusting again in the morning up to 20-25 knots. Little directional change is anticipated, though winds could vary within showers/thunderstorms. Outlook...Occasional non-VFR conditions are expected in periodic showers and thunderstorms through Thursday. && .MARINE... Southwest winds remain elevated at 20-25 knots early this morning before wind speeds diminish from west to east through this afternoon. Small Craft Advisory for the western basin will expire at 10 AM this morning with the remainder of the lake expiring at 4 PM this afternoon. Southerly to southwesterly winds 12-18 knots will remain in place through the end of the week as multiple systems move across the region. Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances will be present through Thursday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LEZ146>149. && $$ DISCUSSION...15 AVIATION...23 MARINE...13  142 FXUS62 KKEY 131744 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 144 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all Florida Keys coastal waters. Breezy conditions will persist for several more days. - Little to no measurable rain will maintain continued moderate drought conditions in the Florida Keys for the next week. - Temperatures will remain near normal, with highs in the lower 80s, and lows in the lower 70s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 142 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period. Some light showers are possible at either terminal though including VCSH is unnecessary due to the light nature. Near surface winds will continue to be easterly at 10 to 15 knots with frequent gusts of 20 to 25 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 1111 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all of the Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, a high pressure system off the coast of New England will maintain fresh to strong northeast to east breezes through the early portion of this week. Fast-moving light showers cannot be ruled out, especially in the overnight periods. Breezes may briefly lull during the late afternoon and early evening across the Gulf waters due to the heating of South Florida. As the high moves farther eastward and slowly weakens, easterly breezes will modestly slacken for Thursday and Friday. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 302 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 The 00z evening sounding at KEY sampled decent shallow moisture up to around 850 mb, capped by a weak temperature inversion. The sounding also detected modest veering with height, and given the continued freshened breezes, isolated to scattered shallow nocturnal showers have been observed across the favored marine zones south of the Island Chain overnight. KBYX reflectivity trends have been downward over the past couple of hours, with only a few isolated showers remaining. Temperatures are generally in the lower 70s at this early Monday morning hour, with mostly clear skies outside of the aforementioned shower activity. The stagnant synoptic pattern will continue for the remainder of the forecast period for the Florida Keys. Gradient wind associated with high pressure centered east of New England will support continued breezy conditions for the next several days. Aloft, an upper- level ridge, characterized by anomalously high 500 mb geopotential heights, along with the lack of any moisture above the boundary layer, will limit any significant measurable rain amounts as well. Most deterministic and ensemble numerical weather prediction guidance suggests the ridge may actually strengthen over the next several days. With the gradient that has supported at least isolated showers slowly collapsing late in the week and into the weekend, along with the increased ridging aloft, mainly dry conditions will likely persist at least for the next seven days. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...AP Aviation/Nowcasts....AP Data Acquisition.....AP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest  843 FXUS62 KRAH 131744 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 145 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 145 PM Monday... * Increased Fire Danger Statement issued for the western Piedmont and Sandhills. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 145 PM Monday... 1) Dry fuels combined with lower humidity and near record heat will promote fire weather concerns through the end of the week. 2) Near record temperatures expected Tuesday through Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... As of 145 PM Monday... KEY MESSAGE 1... Dry fuels combined with lower humidity and near record heat will promote fire weather concerns through the end of the week. The anomalous mid-level ridge will amplify along the eastern seaboard through the end of the week. Associated subsidence over the southeast will promote continued dry conditions at least through Saturday. Precipitation as a percentage of normal over the past 30 days is as low as 5 to 25% for portions of our area worsening the elevated drought conditions. While the combination of RH and wind will not reach typical IFD criteria today or through this week, given the anomalously dry fuels and near-record heat, the NC Forest Service has requested additional messaging along with their current state-wide burn ban. As such, an IFD has been issued for the western Piedmont/Sandhills for the rest of today where gusts will be strongest. An additional IFD for the same footprint will be likely issued this evening for Tuesday. A possible expansion eastward to the coast may be needed from Wednesday through the end of the week, but further details to come. KEY MESSAGE 2... Near record temperatures expected Tuesday through Saturday. As the surface high offshore continues to influence the Mid-Atlantic region with warm south/southwesterly flow through the week expect temperatures to climb into the low 90s by Wednesday. Expect temperatures to continue to be 20-25 degrees above normal through the rest of the week with near record breaking temperatures in the upper 80s to mid 90s expected at all 3 climate sites (GSO/RDU/FAY) each day through the end of the week. The warmest day is expected to be Saturday with highs in the low to mid 90s everywhere. (see climate section below for list of climate records) && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 145 PM Monday... High confidence of mainly VFR conditions through the 24 hour TAF period. High pressure at the surface and aloft will result in generally fair weather with periods of high and mid cloudiness through 18Z Tuesday. A south to southwesterly flow around the high pressure system will continue through the period. Gusty south to southwest winds this afternoon at 8 to 14kts with gusts of 18 to 24 hours this afternoon will become southwest at 6 to 10kts tonight. Southwest winds will pick back up on Tuesday at 8 to 12 kts with gusts of 16 to 20 kts. Outlook: Generally fair weather with VFR conditions are expected into the first part of the weekend as warm air circulates around high pressure just off the Southeast coast. -Blaes && .CLIMATE... All-Time Records for April KGSO: 95 on 4/28/1915 KRDU: 95 on 4/23/1980 and 4/28/1896 KFAY: 96 on 4/12/1930 Record High Temperatures: April 13: KGSO: 88/1930 KRDU: 89/1922 April 14: KGSO: 90/1922 KRDU: 91/1941 KFAY: 93/1922 April 15: KGSO: 90/2006 KRDU: 92/1941 KFAY: 95/2006 April 16: KGSO: 88/2002 KRDU: 92/1941 KFAY: 94/2006 April 17: KGSO: 90/1967 KRDU: 93/1896 KFAY: 92/1941 April 18: KGSO: 90/1976 KRDU: 95/1896 KFAY: 93/1941 Record High Minimum Temperatures: April 13: KGSO: 61/2019 KRDU: 66/1930 April 15: KGSO: 65/2006 KRDU: 64/1993 April 16: KGSO: 66/2006 KRDU: 64/1912 KFAY: 69/1934 April 17: KGSO: 63/2002 KRDU: 67/1896 KFAY: 66/1921 April 18: KGSO: 66/1909 KRDU: 63/1941 KFAY: 67/2002 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NTL/Badgett/CA AVIATION...Blaes CLIMATE...RAH  498 FXUS64 KSJT 131745 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1245 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorm chances will persist Monday into Wednesday, with a threat for severe storms each day. - A cold front is expected on Saturday, bringing low rain chances and considerably cooler temperatures for the upcoming weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 105 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Convective initiation possible again late this afternoon and into the evening, as the dryline develops and sloshes east to near the western borders of the area by late afternoon. Plenty of instability ahead of it with CAPEs of 3000-3500 ahead of it. However, not a ton of upper support for initiation and dryline itself does not look like it will have great convergence. If a storm can develop, it will likely become severe pretty quickly with that type of instability. Just a matter of "if". Will continue to carry small POPs along and ahead of the dryline. Otherwise still warm with highs in the 80s, perhaps inching above 90 degrees for those areas that are west of the dryline for a few hours during the afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Monday) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Upper level trough will be situated over the Desert Southwest on Tuesday and will gradually move east across the southern Rockies and into West Texas by Wednesday. The dryline will be west of the area on Tuesday and then mix east into western portions of the forecast area Wednesday afternoon. Large-scale lift will increase across West Texas Tuesday afternoon and evening, with thunderstorms likely developing along and east of the dryline, especially during the evening hours. The potential for severe storms will exist, as storms move east into the area during the evening/overnight period. The main hazards will be large to very large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. Similar setup on Wednesday with another threat for severe storms, as the dryline mixes into western portions of the area by afternoon. Mainly dry Thursday and Friday, although isolated storms are still possible, primarily across the Big Country. The next upper trough will track across the Rockies and into the Plains Friday into Saturday, with an associated cold front expected to move south across the area on Saturday. For now, low rain chances remain in the forecast over the weekend, along with cooler temperatures. Temperatures will be considerably cooler behind the front, with highs in the 70s on Saturday and in the upper 60s and lower 70s by Sunday. Overnight temperatures will be chilly, with lows mainly in the mid and upper 40s over the weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 An isolated thunderstorm may affect KABI or KSJT late afternoon into early evening, but left out mention due to low potential. Band of stratus with MVFR ceilings affecting KSOA and KBBD at noon will lift to VFR 19-20Z. Stratus with MVFR ceilings otherwise returns toward midnight for KSOA and KJCT, lowering to IFR by daybreak. Ceilings at KSOA may stay IFR through 18Z Tuesday. MVFR stratus returns across the rest of the terminals by daybreak, rising to VFR early afternoon. Gusty south winds will affect KABI and KSJT this afternoon, and again mid morning Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 89 68 81 65 / 20 30 50 80 San Angelo 88 65 79 62 / 10 30 50 70 Junction 86 64 80 62 / 10 20 30 50 Brownwood 86 65 80 63 / 10 10 40 60 Sweetwater 90 68 82 64 / 20 30 50 70 Ozona 85 65 75 62 / 10 30 50 60 Brady 85 66 78 64 / 10 20 30 50 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...04  321 FXUS62 KRAH 131745 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 145 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 145 PM Monday... * Increased Fire Danger Statement issued for the western Piedmont and Sandhills. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 145 PM Monday... 1) Dry fuels combined with lower humidity and near record heat will promote fire weather concerns through the end of the week. 2) Near record temperatures expected Tuesday through Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... As of 145 PM Monday... KEY MESSAGE 1... Dry fuels combined with lower humidity and near record heat will promote fire weather concerns through the end of the week. The anomalous mid-level ridge will amplify along the eastern seaboard through the end of the week. Associated subsidence over the southeast will promote continued dry conditions at least through Saturday. Precipitation as a percentage of normal over the past 30 days is as low as 5 to 25% for portions of our area worsening the elevated drought conditions. While the combination of RH and wind will not reach typical IFD criteria today or through this week, given the anomalously dry fuels and near-record heat, the NC Forest Service has requested additional messaging along with their current state-wide burn ban. As such, an IFD has been issued for the western Piedmont/Sandhills for the rest of today where gusts will be strongest. An additional IFD for the same footprint will be likely issued this evening for Tuesday. A possible expansion eastward to the coast may be needed from Wednesday through the end of the week, but further details to come. KEY MESSAGE 2... Near record temperatures expected Tuesday through Saturday. As the surface high offshore continues to influence the Mid-Atlantic region with warm south/southwesterly flow through the week expect temperatures to climb into the low 90s by Wednesday. Expect temperatures to continue to be 20-25 degrees above normal through the rest of the week with near record breaking temperatures in the upper 80s to mid 90s expected at all 3 climate sites (GSO/RDU/FAY) each day through the end of the week. The warmest day is expected to be Saturday with highs in the low to mid 90s everywhere. (see climate section below for list of climate records) && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 145 PM Monday... High confidence of mainly VFR conditions through the 24 hour TAF period. High pressure at the surface and aloft will result in generally fair weather with periods of high and mid cloudiness through 18Z Tuesday. A south to southwesterly flow around the high pressure system will continue through the period. Gusty south to southwest winds this afternoon at 8 to 14kts with gusts of 18 to 24 hours this afternoon will become southwest at 6 to 10kts tonight. Southwest winds will pick back up on Tuesday at 8 to 12 kts with gusts of 16 to 20 kts. Outlook: Generally fair weather with VFR conditions are expected into the first part of the weekend as warm air circulates around high pressure just off the Southeast coast. -Blaes && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Badgett/CA/Luchetti AVIATION...Blaes  439 FXUS63 KABR 131746 AAB AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1246 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Front stalls across central and eastern South Dakota today. Cool to the north, but still mild and dry in central South Dakota with High/Very High Grassland Fire Danger and a Red Flag Warning this afternoon. - Isolated strong storms possible this afternoon. Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather across central/north central and northeast South Dakota. Large hail and strong winds are the main threat. Slight risk (2 of 5) extends just into far eastern South Dakota through central Minnesota with hail 1 to 2 inches in diameter, high winds and low tornado threat. - Strong cold front will bring colder air back into the region Friday/Saturday, with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees below normal. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Updated for the 18Z Aviation discussion below. UPDATE Issued at 835 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 The low stratus deck and dense fog have been fairly persistent this morning, and have stuck around longer than originally anticipated. Based on webcams, surface observations, and renewed expectations with how things are playing out this morning, have extended the Dense Fog Advisory to cover a greater area over central and north central South Dakota as well as in time to 16Z this morning. Also have made significant changes to temperatures this morning, dropping highs into the 50s over north central and northeastern South Dakota, as well as western Minnesota. This cloud cover also is creating some potential concerns about the severe weather development later today (or rather the potential lack thereof), but full details will be covered in the discussion this afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 110 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Stratus continues to advect into the region behind a cold front which will stall over central and eastern South Dakota today, setting up a temperature gradient from north to south. CAMS also indicate some fog on the cold side of this boundary, especially for locations that would experience an upslope with northeast winds. There is also a weak wave, a ridge rider, moving up across the area this morning. Its helping generate some elevated showers which will propagate across the CWA this morning. Focus for today is fire weather and convection. With regards to fire weather...no changes to NBM temps/dewpoints today, which puts south central South Dakota well below 20% humidity. HREF probability of exceeding gusts of 25mph is nil though 2pm, increasing and expanding slowly thereafter up across central South Dakota, topping out at 40 to 70% in the warned counties. Getting about the same results looking at NAM BUFKIT soundings (mixed winds about 20kts), and as such winds are somewhat marginal. Then there is the wrinkle of potential elevated convection in the west, with NAM BUFKIT profiles indicating deep enough mixing to support high based convection. The warm front will have started lifting northeast in western/central South Dakota with ample sunshine. About half the CAMS show some weak convection across the western portions of central/north central South Dakota for a few hours in the afternoon. The convective mo from the sounding supports 'dry' thunderstorms with instability above the 0C level and thus a dry microburst risk. Thats associated with a shortwave that moves across northwest South Dakota later today. Theres still the departing wave and near neutral flow aloft in the eastern CWA this afternoon. Storms in the east would have to develop along the stalled front. Major wrinkle here is the stabilizing impact of stratus. NAM/GFS both keep the 950-875mb layer nearly saturated, with BUFKIT profiles in that area supporting a stable boundary layer north of the boundary. NAM/HRRR indicate the best instability has shifted down towards Sioux Falls area. Still the CAMS try to generate convection close to the Highway 14 corridor on the stable side of the boundary. This is in area with a slightly curved hodograph with strong unidirectional flow above 2km. Main concern down that way is storms with supercell type structure with a hail risk before everything passes east into Minnesota. Significant surge in mild air for Thursday, with NAEFS 850mb temperatures a standard deviation above climo, dropping to a standard deviation below climo 00-12Z Saturday. ECMWF actually has 850mb temperatures down as low as -10C, which would be 5C colder in comparison to the NAEFS mean. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG The low clouds will be the primary concerns in the next 6 hours, as we're seeing the edge approaching several of the sites, although the distance varies. Tried to hold onto the persistence at most sites for the next 1-3 hours, but then expect at least some scattering at some of the sites. Greatest confidence is at KPIR, while KABR seems to be a longer shot until later this evening. KATY/KMBG both appear to have some gaps in the low clouds nearing, but will the northeasterly flow up the Coteau hold the clouds at KATY. Felt that it's getting close enough to scatter things out at 21Z, but will continue to fine tune. Other item of note is the potential for some rain at KATY, but confidence is too low to go more than a PROB30. For the rest of the period, expect thunderstorms to develop in western SD this afternoon and push towards KMBG in the evening. Continued to show PROB30 for that potential, but left out the thunder mention at this point, as the trends continues to show that storm dissipating as it nears KMBG. For the rest of the sites, expect a return to some MVFR to IFR ceilings tonight over northern and northeast SD. Also included a hint of fog at KATY, but with winds shifting around to a northwesterly direction, wouldn't expect the intensity or persistence that we saw today. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Dense Fog Advisory until 3 PM CDT this afternoon for SDZ007- 011-020-021-023. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for SDZ033-045-048. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...SRF DISCUSSION...07 AVIATION...SRF  913 FXUS65 KVEF 131747 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 1047 AM PDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and evening, with the highest chances north of I-15. * After a break in active weather, the active pattern continues as another system may impact the region late in the week bringing gusty winds and cooler temperatures. && .DISCUSSION...Today through the Weekend. The upper level low that has been sitting over the region the past few days will shift inland today. Meanwhile, a reinforcing shot of energy will dig through the cyclonic flow, which will deepen the low as it moves into Southern Nevada. This will result in strong forcing around the base of the low along with very cold temperatures aloft, which will allow for scattered precipitation to develop. With strong forcing, cold core processes, and weak increases in moisture ahead of the low- much of the area has at least a 20% chance for seeing precipitation today or tonight, with the highest chances north of the I-15. While thunderstorms with sudden gusty winds, small hail, and lightning cannot be ruled out for specific locations, the coldest temperatures aloft, modest instability, and highest mid-level lapse rates will be in central Nye County, Lincoln County, and northern Mohave County. This is where SPC added a risk for general thunderstorms today, which is reasonable given the set up. Even showers could produce sudden gusty winds today given the dry low levels. As the low winds up and lifts into Southwest Utah, strong forcing should allow for an area of precipitation to linger in Lincoln County through northeast Clark and northern Mohave County overnight and Tuesday. Tuesday into Wednesday, there will be a break in impactful weather as ridging builds into the region. Below normal temperatures today will warm to near normal or slightly above normal for Tuesday and Wednesday. After Wednesday, the weather pattern becomes active again as a trough moves through the Northern Plains. Ensembles are coming into better agreement that a trough will move through the region Thursday and Friday, but the strength of the trough is still uncertain. It can be said- precipitation should largely remain north of the area where there is better moisture and forcing. Also, increasing confidence that gusty winds will develop areawide on Thursday with widespread probabilities of about 50% for impactful wind gusts over 40 MPH. As the flow turns north on Friday, gusty winds are expected to linger in the Colorado River Valley on Friday and cooler temperatures return to the region. This will be short lived though as ridging should build back in again for the weekend, ending any leftover gusty winds and warming temperatures back up Saturday and Sunday. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Wind gusts are starting to pick up at issuance, and will increase to around 25KT this afternoon through this evening. After sunset, the frequency of gusts will decrease, with winds gradually becoming light and settling out of typical directional patterns. This afternoon into this evening, a swath of showers and isolated thunderstorms will move east across the area, with a 25% chance for showers to impact the terminal during the late afternoon and early evening. A majority of the activity will remain confined to the higher terrain, though erratic gusty winds and a lightning strike or two cannot be ruled out. In the vicinity of showers, SCT-BKN ceilings around 6-8kft can be expected, with ceilings around 10kft otherwise, improving overnight. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Showers with embedded isolated thunderstorms are expected to move east across the region this afternoon and evening, with the greatest concentration of activity across the southern Great Basin and the higher terrain of southern Nevada and Inyo County. Ceilings around 6-8kft can be expected with this activity, along with erratic gusty winds and the occasional lightning strike, with about a 20-30% chance of occurrence at a given terminal. Southwesterly winds with gusts to 25-30KT are expected across the Las Vegas Valley and the Lower Colorado River Valley through this evening, trending more westerly across the western Mojave, and northwesterly through the Owens Valley. Areawide, gusts diminish overnight with winds becoming light by daybreak with bands of mid- level clouds around 10kft streaming over the area. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Soulat AVIATION...Phillipson For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter  294 FXUS63 KLOT 131747 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 1247 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Late spring to summer-like temperatures will continue through Friday with highs in the 70s and 80s and lows in the 60s. - Several additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms, including a threat for severe weather and flooding, may occur as early as today-tonight, but especially Tuesday and Wednesday. - A brief break in the pattern is expected late Thursday into or through the day on Friday before another storm system arrives in the Friday evening to Saturday timeframe. - In the wake of the Saturday cold front, a brief, potentially sharp, shot of much cooler air could bring frost/freeze concerns into next Sunday and Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 338 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Synopsis: The transition season will live up to its billing and then some over the next week. The advertised late spring to summer-like stormy pattern (with some breaks) will be us through Saturday, followed by much cooler to possibly downright chilly conditions Saturday night through Sunday night. The timeframe of greatest concern for severe weather this week is Tuesday afternoon into the evening, for which SPC introduced a threat level of 3/5 (enhanced risk) in the overnight day 2 outlook. Over the next 48 hours, aggregate troughing will become established across the southwestern United States and reinforce longwave ridging from the Mississippi River Valley toward the East Coast. Northeasterly shortwave shedding will support corresponding episodic surface cyclone development from the Plains through the Upper Great Lakes, altogether reinforcing a broad warm sector with late spring to summer-like temperatures into the region for much of the workweek. Through Tonight: The daytime hours today will start out dry but mostly cloudy, with low clouds near and north of I-80 initially limiting the diurnal temperature rise. This afternoon, there will be competing factors regarding whether any convection (likely rooted above the boundary layer) can materialize. As the aforementioned aggregate troughing strengthens across the southwestern US today, a renewed push of southwesterly mid- level flow will advect a stout EML plume featuring very steep mid-level lapse rates (>8 C/km) into the Great Lakes. The strong capping at the base of the EML plume and expected mid-level height rises typically conceptually point toward dry conditions. However, we can't ignore the signal on some of the overnight CAM guidance for scattered thunderstorms on the nose of the EML this afternoon. Based on an analysis of RAP model fields (which initialize the HRRR), a possible subtle 700 mb wave with a defined wind response and appreciable moisture look to be the key player. Unfortunately, it's a bit too early to tell how realistic this depiction is (satellite and observational trends after sunrise this morning should help). Should the base of the cap be moistened and cooled enough and updraft attempts overcome the lack of large scale forcing, the modeled scenario on some of the high-res guidance may very well come to fruition. Given the competing factors and inherent uncertainty, opted to introduce 30-40% PoPs translating eastward this afternoon. If a few robust thunderstorms are able to develop, effective shear of 30 to 35kt, weak effective inflow, and steep mid-level lapse rates would support a threat for supercells with both damaging winds and hail. The threat level 1/5 of in the initial day 1 SPC outlook appears appropriate for now in light of the highly conditional nature of this setup. Outside of the uncertain convective potential, expect highs in the 70s to around 80F (warmest south of I-80) this afternoon, with southwest winds gusting up to 25-30 mph. Tonight, there may be a short window of continued potential for isolated to widely scattered storms this evening (20-30% PoPs), possibly related to outflow from previous storms (if any indeed occur this afternoon). Otherwise, intense thunderstorm development is favored to occur somewhere from central Minnesota into central Wisconsin as a subtle upper-level shortwave riding within broad upper-level southwesterly flow induces a low-level jet atop the stalled warm frontal zone to our north. In the absence of any convection this evening, attention will turn to likely activity to our north. With the northeasterly terminus of the low-level jet pointing toward the west-to-east oriented instability axis from Wisconsin and eventually central Lower Michigan, any upscale growth into a mesoscale convection system should stay decidedly north of our area. However, should the warm front end up further south than currently in our forecast (as hinted by HRDPS/ECMWF output), part of northern Illinois may get a glancing blow by (likely weakening) storms. Currently don't see this as a particularly likely scenario, so will cap PoPs at 30-40% from the pre-dawn through daybreak hours. Tuesday and Wednesday: Toward the middle of the week, aggregate troughing will shift eastward toward the Four Corners Region leading to a corresponding "nudge" eastward in broad upper-level southwesterly flow into the Great Lakes. The overlap of the plume of steep mid-level lapse rates, stalled frontal zone, a steady feed of low-level moisture advection, and a parade of shortwaves and the eventual ejection of the aggregate trough with associated jet maxima to support deep-layer shear will support a threat for additional waves of severe thunderstorms in the general region. Storm modes ranging from convective clusters to supercells with a threat for all hazards (including very large hail and tornadoes) will be fair game, particularly on Tuesday. While there is low confidence in exactly how Tuesday PM will play out (and how early storms will initiate), the potential is there for a very favorable setup for damaging to even destructive hail, which drove the SPC day 2 outlook upgrade (favoring near and north of I-80). It remains to be seen if locally backed winds can materialize, with respect to a tornado threat. Additional, repeated rounds of storms over the same area may support a threat for flash flooding (possibly even locally significant) into Tuesday night. Prior rounds of convection into Wednesday morning may then muddle the picture convectively speaking for Wednesday PM. Ultimately, pinpointing favored locations and time windows will remain challenging until there is better clarity on exact shortwaves and eventual placements of boundaries. Thursday through Sunday: There's variance regarding the progression of a cold front across the region, with some of the slower solutions holding onto some potential for storms into Thursday afternoon. Thereafter, into Thursday night and at least the start of Friday, ensemble model guidance advertises a brief break in the stormy pattern as shortwave ridging moves through the Great Lakes ahead of a substantial trough digging into the central US. High temperatures look to rebound into the low to even mid 80s by Friday accompanied by another threat for strong to severe thunderstorms Friday night into Saturday. Thereafter, there is a reasonably strong signal in ensemble guidance for a cooldown to start next week. The key aspect for the weekend into early next week cooldown is a recent trend towards a much cooler air mass due to trough amplification over the region. If this comes to pass, parts of the area may flirt with sub-freezing temperatures Saturday night into early Sunday, and again Sunday night into next Monday morning. With the summer-like warmth and rain this week supercharging plant growth and leaf out, the magnitude of the weekend cold shot will be one to watch for agricultural interests. Castro/Borchardt && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1247 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Key Aviation Messages for the current TAF period: - Multiple waves of showers and storms through the evening. Low confidence in coverage. - Gusty southwest winds are expected through the TAF, with a chance of erratic gusty southeast winds for a brief period after 00Z - Low level wind shear expected overnight as a low level jet increases - Another chance for showers and storms closer to day break tomorrow. Low level clouds have lifted to higher-end MVFR cigs for most of the air space. While Chicago terminals are dry at the moment, scattered showers with embedded thunder has crossed the Mississippi River and is quickly moving northeast. Model guidance has struggled with today's event, but surface and radar observations helped justify converting PROB30s to TEMPOs and help give a better estimate for showers and thunder at terminals this afternoon. Winds will remain out of the southwest with gusts 20 to 25 knots, though stronger gusts associated with thunderstorms is possible. While the current trends may be the main show, models (which have already been mentioned as not handling the event well, thus lower confidence in what they are projecting) continue to highlight a second wave of showers and storms after 00Z. PROB30s were maintained for northern terminals given the lower confidence in coverage, but TEMPOs were added for MDW/GYY given the trend in better coverage to the south. Additionally, there could be a brief window of gusty southeast winds with this second round of showers and storms tonight, before returning to the southwest as the showers pass. After 03Z, a low level jet is expected to increase with winds exceeding 50 knots just 2000 ft AGL. The threat for low level wind shear was maintained in the TAF. Most of the region should remain dry overnight, however, the showers and thunderstorms impacting Minnesota and Wisconsin during the day/evening today is projected to move southeast over the airspace tonight. Many models are suggesting most of the showers and storms will push out over Lake Michigan. While there is lower confidence in this final wave of precipitation, it merited a PROB30 inclusion in the TAF. Drier conditions are expected after daybreak tomorrow. MVFR cigs hang on through the morning before eventually lifting to VFR levels. Winds will remain out of the southwest with gusts 20 to 25 knots. There could we a weak wave in the afternoon that provides isolated shower chances, but confidence was too low for mention in the TAF presently. DK && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago  630 FXUS64 KEPZ 131748 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1148 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1142 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 - Breezy to windy conditions again Tuesday, with at least some patchy blowing dust. Lighter winds for Wednesday. - Breezy to windy again Thursday into Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1005 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 The area will be under mid level southwest flow today as a cutoff low tracks across SoCal today. Breezy conditions continue the first few hours after sunset and then will begin to relax. Tuesday will feature another breezy day with southwest winds during the afternoon as the aforementioned trough will make it's way over the Four Corners and into CO. Wind speeds tomorrow look similar to what we'll see today, but just a little weaker. Blowing dust possible again tomorrow. Wednesday will feature the lightest winds of the work week. Wednesday through Friday looks dry. Breezy to windy conditions return Thursday and Friday along with the blowing dust threat. Very dry air and breezy winds will increase the fire weather threat as well. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1142 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Rain showers that are capable of producing gusty outflow winds will start popping up in the next couple hours and looks to die off around 04Z tonight. Very breezy southwest winds will continue to pick up this afternoon. All sites except KTCS could see BLDU today. Best confidence will be KELP and KDMN. Reductions in visibility expected, but not expecting visibilities less than a mile. BLDU from storms could produce even more reductions in visibility. Winds stay somewhat breezy after sunset and then will decrease during the overnight hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1005 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Elevated to near critical fire weather concerns Tuesday due to breezy southwest 20 ft winds at 10-20 mph. Near critical to critical min RHs across a good portion of the lowlands of SW New Mexico with values generally 12-20% (30-40% in the area mountains). Drier air pushes in Wednesday, crashing min RHs down to the single digits (7-10% in the lowlands, 15-20% in mountains). However, winds will be the lightest on Wednesday with speeds of 5-10 mph. Breezy conditions expected Thursday and Friday, combined with critical min RHs will allow for near critical to critical fire weather concerns. Min RHs will still be in the single digits across the lowlands (5-10%) and 10-15% in the area mountains on Thursday. Wind speeds will be 10-20 mph out of the southwest. The Gila region, Black Range, Sierra County, high terrain in the NM Bootheel and even portions of the Sacramento Mtns will have the best chance to see Red Flag conditions. By Friday, will still see critical min RHs across the lowlands with values of 8-11% and 15-20% in the mountains. 20 ft wind speeds will be around 10-20 mph again. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 60 81 52 78 / 10 10 0 0 Sierra Blanca 55 76 49 74 / 0 10 20 0 Las Cruces 52 77 43 74 / 10 10 0 0 Alamogordo 52 76 43 74 / 20 10 10 0 Cloudcroft 38 53 32 51 / 20 10 10 0 Truth or Consequences 52 74 45 74 / 10 0 0 0 Silver City 42 64 36 66 / 40 0 0 0 Deming 50 77 41 76 / 20 10 0 0 Lordsburg 46 72 38 73 / 30 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 60 79 52 77 / 10 10 10 0 Dell City 52 80 47 77 / 0 10 0 0 Fort Hancock 60 84 53 81 / 0 10 10 0 Loma Linda 55 73 48 71 / 10 10 10 0 Fabens 59 82 51 79 / 0 10 10 0 Santa Teresa 56 79 46 76 / 10 10 10 0 White Sands HQ 58 78 50 76 / 10 10 10 0 Jornada Range 50 77 40 75 / 10 10 0 0 Hatch 52 78 40 77 / 10 0 0 0 Columbus 55 80 46 77 / 10 10 0 0 Orogrande 51 77 45 74 / 10 10 10 0 Mayhill 45 66 37 64 / 10 10 10 0 Mescalero 42 64 34 62 / 20 10 10 0 Timberon 41 62 36 60 / 10 10 10 0 Winston 39 65 30 68 / 30 0 0 0 Hillsboro 49 71 40 73 / 20 0 0 0 Spaceport 47 74 38 75 / 10 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 40 64 31 67 / 50 0 0 0 Hurley 42 69 35 70 / 40 0 0 0 Cliff 44 70 34 73 / 40 0 0 0 Mule Creek 40 65 34 70 / 50 0 0 0 Faywood 45 69 38 69 / 30 0 0 0 Animas 49 75 40 75 / 20 0 0 0 Hachita 49 75 40 75 / 20 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 50 76 40 75 / 10 0 0 0 Cloverdale 47 70 40 70 / 10 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...37-Slusher  615 FXUS63 KAPX 131748 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 148 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Flooding concerns through the week as an active pattern consisting of numerous rain chances overlapped saturated soils and / or melting snowpack continues. - A brief reprieve from rain through the day today with peeks of sun in the afternoon. Large temperature contrast with highs near 70 close to Saginaw Bay and in the 40s across parts of eastern upper. - Another series of showers and thunderstorms tonight into Tuesday, and again Tuesday night. Downpours will accompany thunderstorms. Potential for severe thunderstorms later Monday night and again Tuesday night. - Additional rounds of rain expected Wednesday into Thursday, and again Friday night into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 238 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Pattern Synopsis: Active pattern continues through the forecast period, with the setup remaining the same- longwave trough has established itself across the western CONUS, with ejecting Pacific waves riding southern stream flow from the southern Plains into the Great Lakes. Ridging anchored across the eastern seaboard continues to promote a deep moisture connection from the Gulf, which will allow for repeated rounds of rain / convection to impact northern Michigan through the week... which is only going to prolong the ongoing hydro / flooding situation ongoing across this region. Details: Our first big rain event from this pattern will continue to wind down as we head into the morning, with deeper saturation slowly shifting north and east with its attendant shortwave / mid-level mesolow. Most efficient rainfall will occur across a narrow corridor from roughly Cadillac to Alpena (up to an additional localized 0.50" of rainfall through the morning across the region). This corridor will be subject to additional flooding concerns (on top of the already ongoing hydrological situation) through much of the day tomorrow as streams undergo their hydrological responses. Rain should clear out by mid morning, with some peeks of sun building by later in the day. A frontal boundary stalled out across the region leads to temperature contrasts across the area... warm and humid (60s and 70s) south and 40s to near 50 in eastern upper for Monday. The reprieve will be quite short lived as the next shortwave and low level jet (LLJ) intrusion draws in yet another moisture rich airmass to the region. Vigorous convection anticipated to develop over Minnesota and Wisconsin late this afternoon into the evening, with the stalled frontal boundary being the focus for the most intense activity. Plentiful instability and shear may be just enough to allow severe storms capable of producing large hail to materialize late this evening into tonight, on top of the heavy rain threat this will bring. The focus for severe storms and the heaviest rains likely favors areas south of M-32 at this juncture. In this area, it will be possible to observe an additional 1.50 to 3.00"+ of rainfall Monday night into Tuesday as echo training permits repeated downpours within an airmass constituted of PWATs exceeding 1.25. As such, will have to watch this area very closely... we already have dams with open gates on the Manistee (Tippy Dam) and Au Sable (Mio Dam) rivers... and most of these rivers are set to approach or have already exceeded their maximum heights as it is. Adding this rain on top of what is already occurring may create serious issues in areas that flood easily downstream of these dams in what looks to be the inevitable event that they will continue to release water. As far as the Cheboygan basin goes... additional rain is anticipated from this outburst there too... If current trends hold, most of that basin will endure 0.25 to 0.50 inches of rain... but the headwaters of the Sturgeon and Black River in Otsego and Montmorency counties may see a general 0.75 to 1.50"... all of which will quickly flow into the water-logged areas of the basin. Certainly a lot to monitor in the next 36 hours, with even more on the horizon. Another wave is set to pass through Tuesday night along that stationary front, which will drive another vigorous convective response from the Quad Cities , IL / IA area north and east into Michigan. The northward extent of this response is in question... but in the event that the stalled front remains north enough to permit very warm surface temperatures in the southern portion of the CWA (drum up instability), we could be dealing with another outburst of heavy rain and severe thunderstorms over an area that doesn't need it. Perhaps another brief break in the action for Wednesday, but long term guidance wants to continue to initiate convection along that stalled frontal boundary Wednesday evening into Thursday with another LLJ intrusion. Should trend dry later Thursday into Friday... with more rain to follow on Saturday. With this, it should be stated that it will be entirely possible for us to be contending with hydro / flooding concerns over the next week, perhaps longer. This certainly could be a long stretch for northern Michigan. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 148 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 General trends point towards bettering conditions (MVFR to VFR) across terminals this evening ahead of an additional wave of showers and thunderstorms expected to pass through tonight into Tuesday. Winds decrease through the day becoming light and variable around 00z, then increase once again as showers and thunderstorms track through with gusts up to 15 knots possible (higher within any stronger storms). Conditions will deteriorate through the night with melting snow creating areas of BR and FG and showers dropping ceilings and visibilities as well. Thinking it will be similar to what we saw the previous evening with variable MVFR to LIFR condtions possible. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for MIZ016>018-020>036- 041-042-086>088-095-096-099. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...HAD AVIATION...NSC  848 FXUS61 KOKX 131749 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 149 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Small Craft Advisory has been expanded to include the western Long Island Sound and New York Harbor. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A noticeable warmup begins today. 2) The warmup becomes more widespread into mid week, peaking Wednesday into Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... A warm front pushes through during the first half of today with unsettled conditions remaining primarily north of the region, although some clouds hang around until midday. A return flow out of the SW sets up this afternoon with gusty winds primarily out of the SW, with hybrid sea breeze setting up with more of a pure southerly component to the flow for coastal sections, especially further east. This sets up a wide range in temperatures this afternoon with upper 50s for daytime maxes today for far eastern coastal sections, with upper 70s to around 80 closer to and west of the NYC metro. Northwestern LI and western portions of southern CT will likely get well into the 70s today beginning a significant warm up for the region. .KEY MESSAGE 2... 500 mb height will remain fairly steady state, with 570dm+ likely to remain in place through Thursday. The only question is how much of a southerly component to the sfc winds will take place and for how much of the region. For Tuesday and Wednesday a W to WSW wind should prevail through midday across the entire region. This will allow temperatures to climb quickly both days, even for most coastal sections. Then later during the afternoon hours a sea breeze should develop in response to the rapid warming and the winds at the sfc will become more southerly, and therefore temperatures should fall later in the day for coastal sections, but not before temperatures climb well above normal. Daytime maxes by Wednesday likely get into the upper 80s and maybe even touching 90 in the warmest locations across metro NE NJ. This is supported by 850 mb temperature forecast of 15-16 C. On a side note, the chance of showers and any convection appear to be low through mid week. Some CAM guidance is suggestive of a chance / slight chance of showers and a few thunderstorms late Tuesday into Tuesday evening. However, the best forcing looks to remain north of the region, thus the chances of convection and any impactful thunderstorm activity appear to be rather low at this time. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure will continue to slide offshore overnight while a warm front passes to the north. Low pressure will pass well to the north later today. VFR conditions across NYC metros north/west, with KGON still experiencinng MVFR conditions. Clouds should scatter this afternoon. SW 10-15 kt with gusts 25-30 kt this afternoon. Peak winds mid to late afternoon could reach 20-25 kt with gusts 30-35 kt at KEWR/KLGA/KJFK. Winds should diminish after 00Z Tue. There could be some patchy fog late tonight but confidence in this scenario is low attm. VFR conditions expected on Tuesday with SW winds around 10 kt, with a sea breeze likely after 16Z. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Unscheduled AMD possible to fine tune timing of flight categories and increase in winds through this afternoon. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... Wednesday through Saturday: Mainly VFR but with chance of afternoon and evening showers/tstms each day, mainly NW of the NYC metros, with brief flight cat reduction to MVFR. SW winds could gusts 15-20kt each afternoon Wed-Thu as well. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Small craft conditions are expected across all waters today with a gusty WSW to SW flow regime. Later tonight small craft conditions subside, first for the non-ocean waters during the evening, then later at night across the western ocean. By Tuesday AM sub advisory conditions will prevail across all waters. By late in the afternoon and early evening marginal small craft conditions are expected for the ocean and the south shore bays of LI, otherwise sub advisory conditions are expected. Marginal small craft conditions are expected to develop once again for the same locations late Wednesday and late Thursday in association with sea breeze development and a diurnal increase in southerly flow. Sub advisory conditions are anticipated Friday with ocean seas primarily around 3 ft. && .CLIMATE... Daily record high temperatures that could be reached: Wed April 15: KEWR: 88/1960 KBDR: 81/1960 KNYC: 87/1941 KLGA: 86/1941 KJFK: 80/2006 KISP: 78/2024 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331- 332-335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ355. && $$ DISCUSSION...JE AVIATION...20 MARINE...JE/BR  063 FXUS63 KGRB 131750 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1250 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Potential for severe thunderstorms with very large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes has increased for late this afternoon and evening. - Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches will occur south of Hwy 64 late this afternoon into tonight. Given this area already has saturated soils and rising water levels on rivers and streams, a Flood Watch has been issued. - There is a chance of severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds south of a line from Wisconsin Rapids to Sturgeon Bay during the late afternoon and evening on Tuesday. - Minor to moderate river flooding is ongoing or forecast to occur on several area rivers. Expect many rivers to rise this week due to additional rain and runoff from Upper Michigan, with the greatest impacts expected on the Menominee River, where some locations may see major flooding during the mid to late part of the week. - Much above normal temperatures expected through Friday, with highs in the 60s and 70s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 314 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Rain associated with short-wave trough has shifted east of the region, while a weakening band of showers associated with a cold front moved through northern WI. Stratocumulus clouds covered most of the forecast area and post-frontal low stratus was dropping into northwest and north central WI, but some clearing was poised to move into central WI. Temperatures were very mild, in the middle 50s to lower 60s. Forecast concerns include severe thunderstorms with all hazards, heavy rainfall and possible flooding later this afternoon into tonight. Additional severe thunderstorms could clip the southeast part of the forecast area Tuesday afternoon and evening. River flooding will also be ramping up regionwide, with the greatest impacts expected on the Menominee River. Severe Thunderstorm Potential Later this Afternoon into Tonight: the cold front currently moving through the northwest part of the forecast area is expected to set up west to east across central WI this afternoon. Partial clearing near this boundary should allow temperatures to rise into the middle to upper 70s as dew point approach 60 degrees. Surface based CAPE is expected to increase to around 2000 j/kg near the boundary, with substantial elevated instability expected farther north due to steep mid-level lapse rates. CAMs show scattered supercells developing in central WI during the late afternoon, then expanding into a large cluster as a strengthening low-level jet ascends the frontal zone. The initial supercell development near the frontal boundary in the late afternoon/early evening could produce very large hail (2+ inch diameter) and possibly a couple tornadoes, given STP values of 2-3 and 0-1km SRH of 200-300 m2/s2. The greatest potential for tornadic development looks to be southwest of a line from Wausau to Oshkosh, including the Marshfield, Wisconsin Rapids, Stevens Point, Waupaca and Wautoma areas. This impact area may need to be adjusted if the front sets up farther north or south. North of the boundary, the main threat should be large hail, given a more elevated environment, with lower severe probabilities over far northern WI. Heavy Rainfall and Flooding Potential late this Afternoon into Tonight: Have issued a Flood Watch for roughly the southern two- thirds of the forecast area from late this afternoon through tonight. This area is expected to receive 1-3 inches of rain tonight, based on the favored Canadian, Canadian Ensemble mean and HRRR models. The HRRR is quite ominous, as it shows potential for significant training of the storms over the southern part of the forecast area. Much of this region has saturated soils from the 1-2 inches of rain that fell Saturday night into Sunday, and several rivers and streams are already running high or flooding. Additional heavy rainfall could cause significant flooding problems. Severe Potential Tuesday Afternoon and Evening: The front will get shoved south by tonight's convection, and will likely set up just to our southeast Tuesday afternoon and evening. CAMs show strong to possibly severe convection developing over the southeast third of the forecast area (roughly south of a ISW-SUE line) between 21z/Tue-03z/Wed. Large hail would be the primary threat, though damaging winds are also possible. Additional significant rainfall is expected as a low pressure system lifts through the area late Wednesday into Wednesday night, and with a strong cold frontal passage Friday night into Saturday. Milder temperatures are expected through the period, with highs reaching into the 60s and 70s from today through Friday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1251 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Widespread showers and storms will develop late this afternoon into the overnight hours with MFVR/IFR conditions. Initial storms may begin to initiate by 21-22Z today, becoming more widespread this evening. Areas of fog/low clouds will likely persist into Tuesday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 314 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Minor flooding is expected to continue on several area rivers during the week, and will be exacerbated by periodic heavy rainfall (starting with tonight's Flood Watch event, which is detailed above). Runoff from Upper Michigan is still expected to bring moderate to possibly major flooding on the Menominee River, especially during the mid to late part of the week. If you live near a river or stream, keep a close eye on water levels this week and monitor the latest Flood Warnings from the National Weather Service in Green Bay. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Flood Watch from 4 PM CDT this afternoon through Tuesday morning for WIZ013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050- 073-074. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION... AVIATION...JM MARINE... HYDROLOGY...Kieckbusch  606 FXUS64 KSHV 131752 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1252 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1200 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 - Showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon across much of the ArkLaTex. - There will be a chance for more needed widespread rainfall during midweek and along the cold front arriving on Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1137 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Surface high across the northeast gulf and a low across the Central Plains will maintain an increased pressure gradient across the ArkLaTex today allowing for southwest winds from 10 to 15 mph this afternoon. Southwest flow at all levels will maintain continued Pacific moisture advection allowing for mostly cloudy skies areawide. A decaying convective complex translating northeast across north Louisiana will serve as the catalyst for convection later today across much of the ArkLaTex. Precipitation to diminish this evening with lingering cloud-cover to persist overnight with temperatures forecast to fall into the mid 60s. Overall pattern to remain nearly unchanged through Tuesday. With limited low-level forcing to ignite convection, most of the region to remain precipitation free throughout the day. Highs are forecast to climb into the 80s with portions of northeast Louisiana possibly approaching 90 degrees. An upper-low will swing east across the Midwest on Wednesday evening. Convergence ahead of the trough will enhance the mid- level jet above an already moist and unstable airmass in the vicinity of a weak surface low across Oklahoma. Showers and thunderstorms ongoing across central Oklahoma on Wednesday morning to swing east across the I-30 corridor during the day. Some storms could possibly produce strong gusty winds and small hail during the time of peak heating. Next impactful weather event will occur late Friday night into Saturday as a frontal boundary moves southeast across the region. Widespread rainfall can be expected through much of Saturday across the ArkLaTex. High pressure building behind the front will allow for an overall shift in the weather pattern with dry conditions to prevail through the remainder of the weekend into Monday along with much cooler temperatures ranging from highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s. /05/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 For the 13/18Z TAF period, a mix of MVFR and low VFR cigs dominate our airspace early this afternoon cu/stratocu decks slowly lift to around 3Kft. This trend will continue through the remainder of the afternoon with spotty showers and isolated thunderstorms starting to develop with a more unstable atmosphere and ample moisture in place. Convective coverage will generally remain scattered at best so have only included VCSH/VCTS wording in the TAFs this afternoon before diminishing shortly after 14/00Z. Otherwise, look for more low stratus to return overnight through Tuesday morning with MVFR and even some intermittent IFR cigs impacting most terminals with the possible exceptions of KELD/KMLU through mid to late morning before gradually improving by the end of the TAF period. Breezy south winds will prevail this afternoon from 6-12 kts on average with higher gusts near 20 kts, then dropping off after 14/00Z. /19/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1240 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Spotter activation should not be needed through tonight. /15/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 66 86 65 86 / 0 0 0 10 MLU 65 88 63 88 / 10 0 0 0 DEQ 62 82 62 80 / 10 10 20 40 TXK 67 86 66 85 / 10 0 0 20 ELD 63 86 61 85 / 10 0 0 10 TYR 68 84 67 84 / 0 10 0 20 GGG 66 84 66 84 / 10 0 0 10 LFK 66 85 66 85 / 0 0 0 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...05 AVIATION...19  326 FXUS61 KRNK 131753 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 153 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The aviation forecast has been updated. High confidence for multiple days of record or near-record high temperatures this week. A front could bring cooler weather early next week, but no widespread rainfall expected. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A strong upper level ridge will build overhead for the next few days with record heat possible by Wednesday. Little if any relief is expected from the ongoing drought. 2. A potential cool down by early next week as a front approaches the region. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Strong high pressure will be the dominant weather feature through the remainder of the coming week and record breaking heat is likely as early as Wednesday. Little, if any relief is expected from the ongoing drought. Temperatures are expected to 15-25 degrees above average this week in persistent WSW flow. This heat will be well out of normal bounds for this time of year, with the ECMWF EFI, shift- of- tails and the NAEFS Situational Awareness Table indicating this is an unusual and most likely record breaking heat wave for early April. Many records will likely be challenged or broken this week in the Mid Atlantic, see the Climate section below for more info. Periodic cloud cover and a very isolated shower or thunderstorm possible most afternoons in the mountains. Any rainfall will remain very light in this weather pattern, and will do nothing to improve drought conditions in the region. For today, we are outlooked by SPC for critical fire conditions, and a Fire Danger Statement is in effect for all of Virginia and portions of North Carolina. Additional Fire Danger Statements may be needed through the week. Please see fire weather section for more info. KEY MESSAGE 2: A potential cool down by early next week as a front approaches the region. Guidance is beginning to show hints of a cool down by late Sunday and into Monday next week as a strong cold front pushes through the region. If this occurs, this will bring an end to the record breaking heat that is expected to occur this week. Temperatures will fall back closer to April normals. However, widespread rainfall still does not look likely to occur with the frontal passage at this time. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Persistent SCT to BKN conditions across the area, but generally cloud layer at 5kft or higher. Occasional sprinkles possible, but not even enough to mention in TAFs. VFR should be the predominant category through Tuesday. Gusts up to 25 knots are possible from the southwest into this afternoon, but they should fade towards sunset. Winds light to calm overnight. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Mainly dry with VFR conditions throughout the rest of the week. Winds will generally be out of the southwest, and gusts up to 20 knots are possible each afternoon as the boundary layer warms and mixes. The only chances of showers that could temporarily halt the ongoing dry spell occur during the afternoons across the mountains. These will be very isolated and will fade with loss of daytime heating. && .FIRE WEATHER... Unusually warm and dry conditions will take place with record heat possible beginning by midweek. Rainfall appears minimal as any chances of showers or thunderstorms remain limited to southeast West Virginia. Otherwise, drought conditions will worsen as minimum relative humidity values fall towards 20 to 35 percent each afternoon. Some of the southern facing slopes may have minimum relative humidity values drop to 15 to 20 percent with afternoon sunshine and gusty winds due to an unstable atmosphere from the increasing heat. These aforementioned conditions and the increasing warmth will escalate fire danger across the entire region. The anomalous heat and low humidity combined with daytime gusts will only make fire containment increasingly difficult throughout the week. Winds today remain gusty from the southwest through the evening and coupled with very dry fuels, fires could be difficult to suppress. A Fire Danger Statement has been issued for all of Virginia and portions of Virginia. An additional Fire Danger Statement may be needed on Tuesday. && .CLIMATE... Tuesday Station Hi Max T Lo Max T Hi Min T Lo Min T Roanoke 91 in 1945 42 in 1950 67 in 1922 26 in 1950 Lynchburg 91 in 1941 42 in 1943 63 in 2014 26 in 1973 Danville 91 in 1945 45 in 2000 75 in 1922 30 in 1975 Bluefield 83 in 1930 31 in 1950 64 in 1977 20 in 1950 Blacksburg 82 in 1941 38 in 1943 60 in 1941 18 in 1973 Wednesday Station Hi Max T Lo Max T Hi Min T Lo Min T Roanoke 89 in 1936 45 in 1943 67 in 2024 25 in 1950 Lynchburg 89 in 1941 45 in 1943 65 in 1896 28 in 1950 Danville 91 in 2006 48 in 1943 68 in 1922 27 in 1943 Bluefield 89 in 1922 32 in 1943 60 in 2006 21 in 1957 Blacksburg 83 in 1941 38 in 1962 57 in 1954 19 in 1950 && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BMG/PW AVIATION...BMG FIRE WEATHER...BMG/SH CLIMATE...SH  752 FXUS63 KSGF 131753 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1253 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy southerly winds will occur today and Tuesday, with southerly winds gusting up to 30-40 mph at times each afternoon. - There is the potential for severe thunderstorms across the area on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday into Saturday. - Forecast precipitation totals for the week trending down, with decreasing confidence in heavy rainfall and flooding this week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 151 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Current Conditions & Synoptic Overview: A surface low is lifting northeast across Lake Superior early this morning, with a dryline extending south from the low into central Nebraska, where it continues south hugging the entire front range of the High Plains down to the high terrain of the Mexican Plateau. In the upper levels, an energetic longwave trough is moving into the Intermountain West, with lee troughing developing along the Front Range of the Rockies in the mid- and low-levels. This trough is pushing a broad upper ridge to the east as it progresses across the US. Temperatures today are currently forecast to reach into the low 80s as a west-southwesterly wind in the 700-500mb layer brings warm, dry air into the region from the Rockies. Winds are southwesterly in the lower levels, which is tapping into a plume of Gulf moisture riding along the low-level jet to the east of the dryline. This will keep low-level clouds persistent across the area through much of today, which could keep temperatures a few degrees cooler in the upper 70s. These clouds will also make it difficult for the cap created by the warm, dry air aloft to be broken. Model soundings continue to indicate that the "loaded gun" profile will hold through the day, remaining too capped for convection to develop. If the cap is able to break, there is a very low chance that thunderstorms could develop, but kept PoPs <20% due to the anticipated strength of the cap and the lack of significant lifting mechanism for breaking through it. A few models suggest there may be increased chances of As the lee cyclogenesis continues in the Northern Plains and the low begins to track towards Lake Superior again through the day today, the pressure gradient will strengthen and winds will again be gusty. Expect sustained winds 15-25 mph and gusts up to 35-40 mph at times today and tonight, as an additional lee cyclone develops in the same place as the first into the overnight hours tonight. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 151 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Synoptic Evolution: Overall good agreement on evolution of pattern through Friday, but details and timing of individual systems/waves are still being refined, especially later into the week. Overall, the pattern will be a bit repetitive, with lows re-developing along the Front Range and across the Upper Missouri Valley into the Great Lakes region Tuesday and Wednesday and then again on Friday. Aloft, a similarly repetitive pattern unfolds with numerous waves ejecting across the Northern Plains, one on Tuesday night and another on Friday. High confidence in temperatures in the upper 70s/low to mid 80s all week. Tuesday Severe Weather Risk: The timing of the upper-level wave is trending towards the overnight hours, so the primary forcing available for thunderstorms on Tuesday afternoon is the dryline, which will remain fairly stagnant across central Kansas or even retrograde slightly westward. The "loaded gun" profile will again be present on Tuesday, but 3000+ J/kg of SBCAPE will be available to break that cap, which would allow isolated supercell development along and ahead of the dryline. The most likely scenario is that this occurs outside of our area to the west closer to the dryline and moves into our westernmost counties in the evening and overnight hours as storms grow upscale into clusters. The environment for storms will be favorable for large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes as upscale convection moves in from the southwest. Heavy rainfall may also occur Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as the MCS matures. Wednesday Severe Weather Risk: The boundary (dryline remnants/quasi-cold front) will stay roughly in the same place as Tuesday, stalling to our north and west. Convection will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning, which would impact the evolution of Wednesday afternoon's severe risk based on how much the atmosphere can destabilize. Thursday and Friday: Wednesday's evolution also impacts how Friday's potential severe weather risk will play out. While there could be lingering rainfall early Thursday morning based on development Wednesday night, Thursday appears to be a lull in activity for now, with no additional storm development anticipated at this time. Friday may usher in a pattern change with the southward push of a cold front across the area, which would be the focus area for showers and thunderstorms, some of which could be severe as well. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1244 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Windy conditions with intermittent low ceilings this period. Borderline MVFR ceilings to start, becoming VFR through the rest of the day into the overnight. LLWS concerns between 00Z and 12Z with ceilings lowering again to low VFR/high MVFR heights. Ceilings lift to VFR to end the period. Gusty southwest surface winds throughout the period, sustained 15-20 kts and gusting 20-30 kts. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 530 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Record High Temperatures: April 13: KVIH: 87/2025 April 14: KVIH: 87/2006 KUNO: 86/2024 April 16: KSGF: 86/2006 KVIH: 85/2006 April 17: KSGF: 87/1937 KVIH: 86/2004 KUNO: 87/2006 Record High Minimum Temperatures: April 13: KSGF: 65/1890 KJLN: 70/1972 KUNO: 63/1972 KVIH: 62/1981 April 14: KSGF: 67/2006 KJLN: 70/2006 KUNO: 63/2012 KVIH: 63/2006 April 15: KSGF: 63/2006 KJLN: 66/2006 KUNO: 62/2006 KVIH: 63/1976 && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Camden LONG TERM...Camden AVIATION...Nelson CLIMATE...Camden  867 FXUS63 KDVN 131756 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 1256 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered severe risk has increased for this afternoon into early evening, with a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for northwest Illinois. - We continue to have multiple days of severe weather risks this week. There is an Enhanced Risk for severe storms on Tuesday (level 3 of 5). - Warm and seasonably humid conditions are expected through Wednesday this week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 949 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Confidence has increased this morning for a risk of isolated to scattered severe storms this afternoon and early evening. Models are progging a compact mid-level shortwave to lift northeastward over the area this afternoon, along with a strengthening southwesterly 30-40 knot low-level jet, enhancing convergence. Temperatures well into the 70s and near 80 across our south, along with dew points into the mid to upper 60s, should support SBCAPE values between 1500-2500 J/kg this afternoon - ample instability to fuel convection. Additionally, progged mid-level lapse rates appear quite steep, with values around 7-8 C/km. All of this to say that the environment appears ripe for strong to severe storms. SPC has upgraded the severe risk to a Slight (level 2 of 5) for areas along and north of Galena, IL southeast towards Putnam county, IL, along with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) now along and north of a line from Sigourney, IA to south- central Hancock county, IL. Due to the steep mid-level lapse rates, large hail appears to be the primary threat, with damaging winds and a tornado being more of a secondary threat. However, if storms are able to become surface-based, this would help increase the damaging winds/tornado threat. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Broad southwesterly flow aloft from the Desert Southwest into the Central U.S will continue through much of this week, resulting in active weather across the Midwest. A surface low will begin to organize across Nebraska today before tracking northeastward into NW Iowa and eventually central Wisconsin by tonight, placing eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois in the warm sector of this system. Forecast highs are in the upper 70s to lower 80s for most of the outlook area, with gusty southerly winds (20-30 mph) advecting a warm and increasingly humid air mass into the region (with Tds reaching the ~mid 60s). Elevated showers and thunderstorms are possible later this morning through the mid afternoon as increasing southwest winds aloft (850-700mb) lead to a period of lift/WAA and increase in MUCAPE to 1500-2000 J/kg per latest HREF. Gusty winds and hail would be the primary threats with the strongest cells. The main area of convective initiation today will occur across Minnesota into west-central Wisconsin in the vicinity of a warm front. Forecast steering flow (850-300mb mean wind) and forward-prop. Corfidi vectors indicate these strong to severe clusters of storms will track mostly to the east or east- southeast through much of central and into southern Wisconsin this evening/tonight. What we'll have to watch for is if additional storms can fire back to the west near the surface low across NW Iowa. If this happens, then a line of storms could still drop in from the NW late at night, likely after 10 PM. Most models are not showing this scenario. However, the EC has been consistent on bringing at least scattered storms all the way down to central portions of the outlook area. SPC has pushed the Slight Risk for severe storms north of the area and has maintained a Marginal Risk down to the I-80 counties with the primary threats being isolated strong wind gusts and hail. PoPs haven't changed too much either as we are still messaging 20-50% along/north of Highway 34 for late tonight into early Tuesday AM. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Our attention for the long-term period starts right off the bat with another severe storm risk for Tuesday, and this one appears to be more likely to be active for us. The aforementioned warm front from Monday appears to be pulled southward by yet another surface low, this one developing over the central Plains (farther south than the Monday low pressure system). There remain some uncertainty on the influence of previous convection (if any develop) on how things evolve on Tuesday. If the boundary does reach our northwestern CWA by Tuesday afternoon/evening, it will be game on for strong/severe storms, especially considering the volatile thermodynamic and kinematic environment. As high temperatures warm into lower 80s for most, expect instability to be quite high, with the GEFS ensemble probability of SBCAPE of 2000 J/kg or higher around 50-80+ percent across our southeastern 2/3rds of the CWA. SPC has upgraded areas roughly north of Highway 34 to an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5), with all severe hazards possible, including large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. For Wednesday through Friday, the active pattern will only continue as the primary upper-level longwave trough finally moves through the area Wednesday, followed by yet another one on Friday. We continue to be outlooked by SPC for Slight Risks both days in our region. Much uncertainty remains on the timing and severity as prior convection can augment the environment, but the various machine learning severe probability tools suggest these days to be volatile from an environmental perspective, so more to keep an eye on as we approach these portions of the week. Prepare for a busy severe weather week! && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1256 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A mix of VFR to MVFR ceilings, largely due to daytime cumulus cloud coverage, were seen across the area early this afternoon, along with a cluster of showers and storms that will exit the area to the east. Yet another round of storms is possible later this afternoon, most likely for DBQ and MLI, although exact areal coverage remains uncertain. Gusty southerly winds should develop as well, gusting around 20 to 25 knots. Tonight, dry conditions should prevail. However, as gusts diminish, a persistent southwesterly 40 to 50 knot low-level jet should support a period of low-level wind shear for CID, MLI, and BRL. There should also be a period of MVFR fog for CID and DBQ overnight tonight. Some guidance suggests IFR fog for DBQ, but probabilities remain low at this time (20-30% per the latest NBM). && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ UPDATE...Schultz SHORT TERM...Uttech LONG TERM...Schultz/Uttech AVIATION...Schultz  305 FXUS63 KMQT 131756 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 156 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of showers and thunderstorms lifts into the UP tonight through early Tuesday morning. There is a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms across the stateline border counties, although the chances seem to be decreasing as most convection is now predicted south of us in Wisconsin. - Any heavy rainfall received will exacerbate ongoing flooding concerns. There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 4) for flash flooding with tonight into early Tuesday morning's rainfall event. - A prolonged period of well above freezing temperatures and higher dewpoints will bring increased snowmelt. This, combined with periods of potentially heavy rainfall and thunderstorms, will accelerate river rises and lead to ponding of water in areas with poor drainage. A Flood Watch remains in place for all of Upper Michigan through Wednesday morning && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 155 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Satellite imagery shows low-level cloud cover remaining across most of the U.P. early this afternoon as very weak high pressure ridging moves through the area. The low-level clouds are thanks to the warm temperatures and dewpoints moving over the remaining melting snowpack, which has caused some fog problems since yesterday afternoon. However, with sunshine now starting to show itself in southern Menominee County this afternoon, temperatures down that way are rising into the lower 60s. Thinking the 50s to lower 60s will be seen across the area by late this afternoon, with the warmest temperatures in the south central as the cloud cover slowly gives way to sunshine. That being said, another round of rainfall is expected to move through the U.P. tonight through early Tuesday morning. Thankfully for flooding and severe weather purposes, it looks like most of the rainfall and severe weather potential has shifted south of the area into Wisconsin over the past 24 hours. Thus, lower rainfall amounts are generally expected in comparison to 24 hours, as well as the threat being lowered for severe weather. That being said, we could see some spots get to around half an inch of liquid, with maybe an isolated spot or two getting up to 1 inch if some heavier rainfall hangs out for a couple of hours; the heaviest rainfall is still expected in the south central where flooding was and still is being seen from yesterday to now. As of right now, the latest HREF still brings a 10 to 40% chance of greater than 1" of rainfall tonight into Tuesday morning in the interior west, south central, and east, with the highest chances in the south central and interior west. Should the rainier solutions play out, we may see flooding exacerbated over these areas as US-2 and US-41 continue to have water flowing over them in northern Menominee County. In the low (5% or less) chance that we see severe weather, expect damaging hail followed by severe winds. However, with CAMs bringing convection further south, thinking the un-worked airflow into convection going over the south central tonight will be limited, and thus so should the severe weather threat; the area where the chance for severe weather is greatest is Menominee County. Behind the convection tonight into early Tuesday morning, expect a period of generally drier weather conditions as weak ridging builds in from northern Ontario Tuesday through Wednesday. Hopefully the slightly cooler air from northern Ontario and drier conditions will help to reduce the flooding risk across the area for the rest of this week. That being said, a weak shortwave low moving through the Upper Midwest could bring additional showers and thunderstorms to the U.P. late Tuesday into Tuesday night; whether this shortwave brings precipitation into the U.P. or not will depend on the strength of the ridging from northern Ontario. Another shortwave low moving through the Upper Midwest could bring additional rain showers and thunderstorms to the area around the Thursday time period, although with medium range guidance weakening the strength of this shortwave recently, it may only graze the south as it potentially moves through Lower Michigan; again, it will depend on the strength of the remnant high pressure ridging from northern Ontario. The warmest conditions of the weak move in on Friday as a cold air from northern Canada causes a robust cold front to develop across the central CONUS late this week. With PWATs looking to rapidly increase to around 1 inch in the warm sector via Gulf air ahead of the cold front, the NBM brings up to a 90% chance for temperatures greater than 70 to the western half of the U.P. as dewpoints have a 20 to 50% chance of exceeding 50 degrees (highest chances in the south central and interior west). Combined with intensifying southerly winds, this becomes a recipe for accelerating snowmelt on the snowpack that we have left across the area. Now, where guidance diverges for this week is whether or not a shortwave low lifts through the area before and/or after the arrival of the cold front. Expect higher rain totals if a shortwave rolls through the area before the cold front moves through, as the cold front could bring additional showers and storms across the area into early this weekend. However, if a shortwave low rolls through the area immediately behind the cold front (like the latest deterministic Euro is suggesting), then the western half of the U.P. may be in for a significant wet snowfall event. Therefore, while the confidence is low at this time, we will keep an eye out to see if model guidance continues to converge on a solution. Regardless, there is fairly good agreement that colder temperatures and at the very least light snowfall will be seen over the northwest to west wind snow belts behind the cold front to end the weekend. Expect a transition to more normal temperatures early next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 142 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Fog, dense at times, and low stratus will continue to impact the TAF sites through the forecast period. IWD and CMX will be mainly MVFR this afternoon. Moist air interacting with the snowpack and upslope flow will continue to result in LIFR and VLIFR at SAW. Showers are also expected to overspread the area tonight, an isolated thunderstorm is also possible. Rainfall, in addition to overnight cooling will help to reinforce the low level moisture with widespread IFR and LIFR developing overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 338 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A passing cold front has largely shifted winds to the NW this morning, diminishing below 25 kts. A Marine Dense Fog Advisory remains in place through this morning and may be extended further into the day based on local observations and trends. Winds remain below 15 kts this afternoon, however, a low pressure lifting through the area kicks up breezy E to NE winds (largely below 25 kts save for the eastern arm of the lake) tonight with a chance for a few strong thunderstorms. Moving through the rest of the week, winds look to mostly stay 20 knots or less across the lake. Another shot at showers and thunderstorms is possible on Thursday. More active marine weather returns next weekend. The latest ensemble guidance suggests a 30-50% chance for Gales to 35 kts Friday through Sunday with the passage of a few stronger systems, though there remains high uncertainty regarding the exact track. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 338 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 In response to the rainfall and widespread above freezing ambient and dewpoint temperatures through the the rest of the workweek, river rises are expected across Upper Michigan as the remaining snowpack melts away. In addition, the heavy rainfall at times may accelerate the liquid entering into the streams, rivers, and waterways of the UP, especially across the south-central UP where expected rainfall tonight in combination with yesterday heavy rain will exacerbate flooding already felt. River observations and forecasts have increased in measured and expected water level heights, with Moderate Flooding still expected for the Paint River in Crystal Falls the Sturgeon River in Alston; the latest River Forecast for Crystal Falls has the Paint River getting up to a height of 8.2 feet, but with the river observations already exceeding the river forecast, its possible record flooding could be seen (9.8 feet). Elsewhere across Upper Michigan, other rivers have been put under a River Flood Advisory as they are expected to get to bankfull; however, uncertainty still remains on whether or not they will achieve flood stage as it will depend on the speed of snowpack melt and rainfall this week. The rivers are: the Black River near Bessemer, the Chocolay River at Harvey, and the Middle Branch of the Escanaba River at Humboldt. As of this morning, the Black River had over a 30% chance of getting into Minor Flood Stage. Meanwhile, the Chocolay at Harvey and the Middle Branch of the Escanaba River at Humboldt have over a 50% chance of reaching Minor Flood Stage later this week. Eastern Delta County has received enough rain yesterday that the latest observations already show the Sturgeon River near Nahma Junction already at bankfull; thus a River Flood Advisory remains for it until further notice. Outside of these spots, others like the East Branch of the Escanaba River at Gwinn and the Michigamme River at Witch Lake could get to bankfull or more later this week. This morning's HEFS guidance suggests there is a 70% chance that the Escanaba River in Gwinn gets to Minor Flood Stage. Outside of these rivers, there may be additional spots where flooding and bankfull stages could be achieved. In addition, expect the saturated soils over the U.P. to potentially keep the poor drainage and low-lying areas inundated with water. Therefore, if you see any flooding please report it to the NWS and go around it; turn around, don't drown. Aside from the expected rainfall tonight, additional chance for precipitation are expected again later this week into the following weekend. With snowmelt continuing until a cold front passes Friday night, flooding concerns continue until colder air arrives by Saturday. With the warmest weather expected on Friday, expect snowmelt to accelerate as winds pick up from the southeast and south and dewpoints reach up to around 50 once again. Thus, we may see river rises intensify late this week as the rainfall along the cold front combined with the snowmelt could exacerbate river rises and flooding across the Upper Peninsula. However, after the cold front passes early Saturday, expect the snowmelt to become limited if not cease entirely as light lake enhance to lake effect snow moves over the northwest wind snow belts. With cooler and drier weather expected this upcoming weekend, we may see flood concerns start to alleviate by the end of the forecast period. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for MIZ001>007-009>014- 084-085. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TAP AVIATION...NL MARINE...BW HYDROLOGY...TAP/BW  731 FXUS66 KMTR 131756 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1056 AM PDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1136 PM PDT Sun Apr 12 2026 - Slightly cooler to near normal temperatures through Thursday - Periods of gusty winds, especially at higher elevations Wednesday through Friday - Warmer temperatures return Friday into the weekend && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1136 PM PDT Sun Apr 12 2026 (Tonight through Tuesday) The coverage in light shower activity continues to gradually shift south late tonight into early Monday morning. Earlier this evening the KOAK sounding reported a 23.0C temperature at H50 which is in the 10th percentile for this time of the year. That cold core aloft helped support continued light shower activity after sunset from the SF peninsula south to Monterey Bay. The upper low will become more unorganized as it moves farther inland, evolving into a positively tilted upper trough extending from the Great Basin southwest into SoCal today. Lingering offshore scattered light showers will occasionally drift into the Big Sur coastline through mid-morning today with maybe a trace to a few hundredths of rain. Mondays highs at lower elevations will run around 5F-10F degrees below normal, with higher elevations 10F-20F degrees below normal. Cooler than normal temperatures persist tonight into early Tuesday, especially farther inland with cooler than normal air aloft persisting much of the work week. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1136 PM PDT Sun Apr 12 2026 (Tuesday night through next Sunday) A progressive shortwave pattern sets in Tuesday through Thursday behind the exiting trough defining the term 'gradual warming' with most locations seeing an increase of 1 or 2 degrees each day through the middle of the week. A developing trough shifts south from the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday. There is a slight chance for rainfall across the North Bay Wednesday afternoon as the trough axis pivots east and south, but any rainfall will be measured in hundredths of inches with no impacts. Gusty winds will develop on the backside of the exiting trough later Wednesday through Thursday and into the early morning hours of Friday. However, updated deterministic guidance has shifted the disturbance farther east than this time last night with less of an 'inside slider' signal. Winds will still be gusty at times especially at higher elevations but impacts seem low. There is also a signal for the potential of another round of rainfall toward the end of next weekend into the beginning of next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1052 AM PDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Fair weather CU will be the name of the game today with mostly VFR and an occasional MVFR cloud drifting over the terminals. VFR through early this evening. Lower confidence on CIGS tonight, but enough residual moisture and offshore clouds will bring MVFR cigs back late tonight and early Tuesday. Vicinity of SFO...VFR. MVFR cigs return during the Tuesday AM rush around 13-15Z. VFR returns by Tuesday afternoon. SFO Bridge Approach...Less clouds over the Bay today. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR and onshore flow. MVFR cigs return tonight. && .MARINE... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 1052 AM PDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Rain showers linger through the morning before diminishing into the afternoon. Winds stay light through early afternoon, increasing to a moderate to fresh northwesterly breeze through Wednesday. Winds build again on Thursday leading to near gale force gusts into the end of the work week. Moderate seas continue through Wednesday before rough seas arrive on Thursday. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM....JM AVIATION...MM MARINE...RGass Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  260 FXUS66 KPQR 131757 AAA AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 1057 AM PDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Updated Short Term and Aviation Discussions .SYNOPSIS...Scattered light showers continue at times today. However, our focus remains on a stronger frontal system arriving late Tuesday into Wednesday bringing widespread precipitation to the region and a period of heavy Cascade snowfall. As a result have upgraded the Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Storm Warning from late Tuesday into early Thursday above 2500ft. While showers in the wake of the front decrease mid to late week, cooler overnight temperatures quickly follow with increasing frost concerns. At least temperatures trend higher and conditions drier for Saturday. && .MORNING UPDATE...Have upgraded the Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Storm Warning. The incoming system looks to bring 12 to 20 inches of snowfall to the Cascades starting Tuesday afternoon through early Thursday morning, for elevations above 2500 ft. In addition we are keeping an eye on the incoming system as there is a low chance (~5%) of some wet snow accumulations above 1000 ft during the same time period. So, if you are planning on going over the Cascade Passes in the next few days, please keep an eye on road conditions as well as any informational posts made by local officials. /42 .SHORT TERM...Now through Wednesday Night...Today a weak shortwave weather disturbance is expected to move through the region helping to maintain widespread light shower activity. Given the broad WNW flow, showers will be most likely across the Cascades, Coast Range, and foothills where orographic lift will enhance activity. By late this afternoon into Tuesday morning, a transient ridge begins to build overhead. While this may not fully eliminate shower chances, it should lead to decreased coverage across the interior lowlands, with activity becoming more confined to elevated terrain such as the Coast Range, Cascades, and adjacent foothills. Attention then turns to an approaching Pacific frontal system. By Tuesday afternoon, increasing southerly flow ahead of the front will usher in locally breezy conditions, with gusts generally in the 20-35 mph range, strongest along the coast. Confidence is high by the evening hours the cold frontal boundary and steadier stratiform precipitation will be underway continuing to sweep overnight into Wednesday morning. Rainfall amounts appear modest during this period, with 24-hour totals generally ranging from 0.7 to 1.2 inches across the Willamette Valley and Portland metro, 0.9 to 1.8 inches along the coast and Coast Range, and 1.0 to 2.0 inches across the Cascades. However, for the latter region, especially at pass level, the precipitation will likely be falling as snow. That brings us to the primary impact anticipated with this weather disturbance. Cooling temperatures along and behind the front will lower snow levels 2500-3500ft by sunrise Wednesday morning across most of the south Washington and Oregon Cascades significantly increasing the likelihood of winter travel impacts. The latest NBM probabilistic guidance indicates a 55-90% chance of 12+ inches of snowfall at the Cascade passes between Tuesday afternoon and Thursday afternoon (48 hours), highest at Santiam pass. As a result, have upgraded the Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Storm Warning for elevations above 2500 ft in the South Washington Cascades, North Oregon Cascades, Cascades of Marion and Linn Counties, and Cascades of Lane County from 5 PM Tuesday through 5 AM Thursday. Total snow accumulations between 12 to 20 inches are expected, with the highest amounts in the high Cascades from Marion to Lane County. While the warm antecedent conditions may initially stave off road accumulation after the switch to snow, there is high confidence a period of 1-1.5+ in/hr snowfall rates Wednesday morning will overcome any warm pavement conditions. As such, travel related impacts over the mountain passes will be possible through Wednesday and Wednesday night - be prepared to winter driving conditions if you plan to cross the Cascades during the middle of the week. It's also worth pointing out once we shift to the post-frontal shower regime Wednesday afternoon during which the core of the upper-level low passes overhead, convection may be strong enough for some weak thunderstorm activity. The main time period of focus is 2pm to 7pm Wednesday when heating between shower bands may be maximized. With deterministic models suggesting CAPE values around 100-300 j/kg activity will be of the weaker pop-up variety with infrequent lightning, small hail/graupel, moderate and locally gusty winds the main impacts should any occur (10-20% chance). -99 .LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday...With the frontal boundary well out of the region come early Thursday, impacts shift to cooler and potentially clearer conditions behind the system bringing renewed frost concerns to the interior valleys. The first opportunity appears near sunrise Thursday morning, with a 50-80% chance of frost across much of the interior lowlands, except for a 25-45% in the metro and at the coast. Additionally, there is a 70-90% chance of freezing temperatures in the Upper Hood River Valley. Similar conditions may develop again Thursday night into Friday morning, though with slightly lower probabilities (only 10-20% lower). While frost potential starts for most areas Thursday morning, the Upper Hood River Valley will have frost potential sooner and longer, with a 25-50% chance of frost Wednesday morning, 85-95% Thursday and Friday morning, and 60-80% Saturday morning. Chances of frost lower to 10-20% by Sunday morning for the Upper Hood River Valley. Temperatures gradually warm into the weekend, reducing frost concerns. Ensembles hint at a transient right of high pressure moving overhead to start the weekend followed by another low pressure system sometime the second half of the weekend into the following week, although beyond the larger scale pattern the exact detail and impacts remain uncertain at this time. -99/12 && .AVIATION...Northwest flow aloft with diminishing showers today. A mix of VFR to MVFR conditions expected to become predominately VFR by 22z this afternoon, with only a 10-20% chance of MVFR occurring with passing showers through this evening. Westerly surface winds around 10 kt or less continue today. A cold front will approach the region from the northwest Tuesday morning, bringing increasing chances for rain and lower ceilings to the area on Tuesday. Chances for MVFR conditions begin to increase again after 12z Tue at the coast while winds are expected to become more southerly ahead of the front. KPDX AND APPROACHES...Predominately VFR conditions expected through at least 18z Tuesday. There is around a 20-30% chance for MVFR CIGs with passing showers through 22z this afternoon. Northwest winds around 4-6 kt expected to become southerly by 08z Tuesday. /DH && .MARINE...Expect WNW winds to persist today into the evening hours as conditions stay fairly benign while significant wave heights hold in the in the 4 to 7 foot range. Our focus then turns to the next weather system in the form of a cold frontal boundary increasing both winds and seas starting on Tuesday. Small Craft Advisory wind gusts increase across both the inner and outer waters in the morning hours, peaking in the late afternoon and evening hours as the front arrives. When this occurs, there'll be a ~6hr period when gusts could (30-40%) exceed 34 knots and reach into Gale Force category - something to watch. Later Tuesday into Wednesday a fresh swell along with the winds will cause seas to build to around 8-11 feet at 9-10 seconds. Winds begin decreasing Wednesday while the seas remain elevated, decreasing further on Thursday. Wave heights revert back into the 4 to 7 feet range Friday and Saturday before potentially increasing again later next weekend with the arrival of another weather system. -99/03 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM Tuesday to 5 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ126>128. WA...Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM Tuesday to 5 AM PDT Thursday for WAZ211. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Tuesday to 5 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ210-252-253-272-273. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Tuesday to 5 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ251-271. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland  348 FXUS62 KMLB 131759 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 159 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 145 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 - Rough surf and a High Risk for life-threatening rip currents will persist at area beaches today. Entering the hazardous surf is not advised. - Poor to hazardous boating conditions will persist across much of the coastal waters today. - Remaining dry over the next several days, with temperatures continuing to gradually warm through the week and into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 145 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Today-Tonight...High pressure centered offshore the northeast U.S. coast will extend across north Florida today, allowing the pressure gradient to relax slightly. Breezy onshore winds around 15 mph will still develop this afternoon along the coast, south of the Cape, but will range from 10-15 mph elsewhere across east central Florida, with gusts up to 20-25 mph. Ridge aloft and dry airmass (PW values 0.5-0.7") will continue to expand across Florida, keeping rain chances out of the forecast. Onshore winds will keep warmest temps inland, with highs in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees along the coast and low 80s for much of the interior, except Lake County where mid 80s are forecast. Winds then diminish into tonight, but will still be 10-15 mph through this evening at coastal locations south of the Cape. Overnight lows will range from the upper 50s/low 60s across the interior and mid to upper 60s at the coast. A moderate onshore breeze and lingering swells over the waters will maintain rough surf and a High Risk for life-threatening rip currents at area beaches today. Entering the surf is not advised. Tuesday-Sunday...Ridge axis of high pressure over the Atlantic will remain north of the area through much of the week, gradually settling farther southward across central Florida late week and into the weekend. This will allow low level onshore winds to weaken and will combine with ridge aloft to keep a dry weather pattern in place and also continue a gradual warming trend over the next several days. Highs in the low to mid 80s into midweek, will increase to the mid to upper 80s across the interior Thursday, with low 90s then forecast across inland areas Friday and into the weekend. These temperatures will be near record values for inland sites, and can't rule out a tied or broken max temp, mainly at Leesburg Friday through Sunday. Lows each night will fall into the 60s. && .MARINE... Issued at 145 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Today-Tonight...Poor to hazardous boating conditions continue today into tonight, with dry conditions prevailing. Ridge axis of high pressure over the Atlantic will remain just north of the waters today, allowing the pressure gradient to relax slightly. However, easterly winds south of the Cape will still reach as high as 15-20 knots through this morning and again from late afternoon into this evening. Otherwise, onshore winds will generally be 10-15 knots, with seas up to 5-7 feet this morning gradually subsiding to 4-6 feet this afternoon and tonight. In terms of headlines, a Small Craft Advisory continues across the southern Gulf Stream waters through this morning and has been extended slightly for the offshore marine zones of Brevard County and Treasure Coast waters through 10 AM. Small craft will then need to continue to exercise caution across much of the coastal waters through this afternoon and across the southern Gulf Stream waters tonight for seas up to 6 feet. Tuesday-Friday...Ridge axis remains near to north of the waters through the remainder of the week, with onshore flow largely prevailing and decreasing to 5-15 knots. Seas diminish to 3-5 feet Tuesday/Wednesday and 3-4 feet into late week leading to more favorable boating conditions. Dry conditions forecast to continue through the next several days. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 139 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 VFR conditions through the TAF period. Easterly winds of 10-15 KT with gusts to 25 KT this afternoon. Winds then settle back to 5-10 KT after 00Z (closer to 10 KT along the coast from MLB southward). East to southeast winds will increase to 8-12 KT by mid morning with gusts to 15-20 KT, especially along the coast from MLB southward. Dry conditions through the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 145 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Onshore winds decrease slightly through early this week as high pressure ridge settles closer to the area. However, easterly winds will still become breezy this afternoon south of the Cape, around 15 mph, with speeds closer to 10-15 mph elsewhere across east central Florida today and again on Tuesday. Wind gusts will reach up to 20- 25 mph today and around 20 mph on Tuesday. Dry conditions are forecast to prevail through the work week, with a gradual warming trend taking place over the next several days. Min RH values as low as 35-40 percent will be possible across Lake County today and Tuesday, and may then drop to more critical values in the low to mid 30s near to west of the I-4 corridor into mid to late week. However, onshore winds will be even weaker across the interior during this time frame, around 5-10 mph. Dispersion values will be Very Good today and Good to Very Good on Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 63 81 61 81 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 63 84 61 84 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 67 79 66 79 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 65 80 63 80 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 61 86 61 86 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 61 84 60 84 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 63 84 62 85 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 65 80 62 80 / 0 0 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Weitlich AVIATION...Watson  888 FXUS65 KFGZ 131759 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1059 AM MST Mon Apr 13 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Look for windy and cooler weather the early part of the week. The next round of showers is expected this afternoon into Tuesday. Accumulating snow is possible above 6000 feet tonight into Tuesday morning which could lead to slick travel conditions. Near normal temperatures and dry conditions are expected for mid to late week. && .DISCUSSION...A shortwave trough located off the northern California coast this morning will dive southeastward toward Arizona through the day becoming a closed-low over southern California by late this afternoon. As a result, look for strong pressure gradients to develop with southwest winds at 20-30 mph gusting to 35-45 mph by the late morning. Consequently, a Wind Advisory is in effect for much of northern Arizona today into this evening. In addition, ahead of the low center, moisture will be drawn northward and interact with strong upward motion/jet dynamics. Look for an increasing chance of showers through the day with a good chance of showers overnight. The system will be a quick mover which will limit precipitation amounts which will generally be 0.05-0.10 inches at lower elevations and 0.20-0.40 in strong upslope regions such as the Mogollon Rim, Kaibab Plateau, Bradshaw Mountains, Chuska Mountains, etc. This will be a colder system than we have recently experienced with snow levels dropping to 5,500-6,500 feet tonight as the low center moves across Arizona. Areas of accumulating snow are forecast with trace amounts as low a 5,500 feet but with general snow accumulation of 1-3 inches above 6,000 feet. Double that for the very highest mountain peaks. During the day Tuesday...The low rapidly heads eastward. While lingering showers and even a stray thunderstorm are anticipated precipitation amounts will be minimal. Perhaps as much 0.05-0.10 in the Chuska Mountains with a couple hundredths or less elsewhere. Additional snow accumulation will be minimal. Behind the low winds will shift to a west to northwest direction generally 10-20 mph gusting to 30 mph. From Wednesday onward...Generally dry. Temperatures will moderate to near normal on Wednesday and Thursday but see a cooldown on Friday with a passing shortwave trough. On thursday, in advance of the Friday trough, look for another round of strong southwest winds at 15-25 mph gusting to 35-45 mph. Behind the trough we could see some downright cold morning lows Saturday morning. If you live above 6000 feet you may want to think about protecting any outside plants and/or disconnect hoses. Away from Thursday daytime winds will generally remain breezy at 10-20 mph. && .AVIATION...Monday 13/18Z through Tuesday 14/18Z...VFR conditions through 21Z, then MVFR conditions in scattered -SHRA/-SHSN developing from west to east through 12Z, along with periods of IFR conditions possible in SHSN over the higher terrain. Lingering MVFR CIGs possible through Tuesday morning. Winds are S-SW 15-25 kts with gusts 30-40 kts. After 03Z, winds southwest at 10-20 kts. Local gusts in excess of 30 kts possible along a KSOW-KSJN line through the night. OUTLOOK...Tuesday 14/18Z through Thursday 16/18Z...VFR conditions. Isolated showers remain possible through 00Z Tuesday. Winds W 5-15 kts gusting to 20-25 kts on Tuesday, then SW 5-15 kts on Wednesday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Tuesday...Showers will spread across northern Arizona this afternoon through the evening, with snow levels dropping to 5500-6000 ft overnight. General snow accumulations of a trace amounts to 3 inches are anticipated. Showers will linger through Tuesday afternoon ending in the evening. Look for southwest winds at 20-30 mph with gusts 35-45 mph today, then west at 10-20 mph gusting to 30 mph on Tuesday. Wednesday through Friday...Dry. Southwest winds at 5-15 mph are forecast on Wednesday, increasing to 10-20 mph gusting 25-35 mph on Thursday, then shifting to west to northwest on Friday. Minimum RH of 10-20% is expected on Wednesday and Thursday, then 15-25% on Friday. Mild on Wednesday and Thursday, turning cooler on Friday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ009- 012>017-039-040. && $$ PUBLIC...McCollum AVIATION...Lewandowski FIRE WEATHER...McCollum For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff