324 FXUS62 KFFC 131800 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 200 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 149 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 - Fire weather concerns will persist this week given the ongoing very dry and warm conditions. A Red Flag Warning is in effect across far north Georgia with a Fire Danger Statement to the south through this evening. - Temperatures will remain well above normal through the weekend. Some could approach daily record highs by mid-week. - With little chance of appreciable rainfall over the next 7 days drought conditions will worsen. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 149 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 There will be no change with respect to the ongoing hot and dry stretch with temperatures resuming their upward swing on Tuesday. Atlantic high pressure will maintain its grip at the surface while the resurgent ridge will keep any precipitation/frontal boundaries repelled well to our north and west. Without the impact of today's broken high clouds, highs will warm back into the mid to upper 80s on Tuesday with a few 90 degree readings possibly sneaking into parts of central Georgia. Dangerous fire weather conditions will persist with details expounded upon in the Fire Weather section of the AFD below. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday morning through next Sunday) Issued at 149 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Very Warm and Dry Pattern Continues: A strong ridge extending from the Gulf up across the Southeast US will keep very warm and dry conditions in place throughout this week. This persistent weather can be attributed to a textbook omega-block synoptic pattern, with deep troughing on both sides of the ridge. Dry air from the mid to high latitudes wrapping around the east side of the ridge will keep PWAT values over Georgia generally under 0.75-1", resulting in near zero rainfall chances. One exception to this could be late Thursday, as model guidance continues to have a shortwave pushing across the Midwest and TN Valley. Rainfall chances with this feature will depend on how strong it is as crashes into the ridge, but for now it looks like a 10-20% chance for rain showers in very far NW GA. The dry airmass and low rain chances this week will only worsen our ongoing drought conditions, and likely lead to daily fire weather concerns. High and low temperatures during this period will end up around 12-20 degrees above normal. This will translate to high temperatures in the 80s to low 90s through Saturday. Daily records would be in jeopardy with those temps, and we could see our earliest 90 degree day on record for the Atlanta area. Overnight lows will only drop to the low to mid 60s. The one benefit of the lower moisture/humidity is that heat index values would not be a concern during this period. Cooler with Slight Rain Chances Late This Weekend? Confidence in the forecast starts to drop off after Saturday due to a fairly large spread in model guidance, but there continues to be a growing number of ensemble members showing the synoptic pattern finally starting to breakdown and progress. This progression, with the ridge over the Southeast getting kicked out while broad troughing sets up over most of the Eastern US, would initially bring a cold front and rain chances through the area, with cooler and dry conditions to follow for early next week. Unfortunately, most of the latest ensemble members do not have much moisture with this front, and only have a decent chance of 0.10" of rainfall in far NW GA. If this forecast holds, most of the area will continue to remain rain-free through at least early next week, worsening drought conditions even further. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 115 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 VFR conditions will persist with primarily BKN high cirrus today with FEW/SCT cu 5-7 kft possible through 00Z. FEW/SCT high cirrus will be possible thereafter. Winds will remain SW through the period, 6-10 kts during the afternoons, 5 kts or less overnight. //ATL Confidence...18Z Update... High confidence. RW && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 149 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Remainder of today: As critical fire weather thresholds have been adjusted after coordination with our core fire partners given ongoing very dry fuels (critical RH for Fire Danger issuance is now 30% instead of 25%), a Red Flag Warning remains in effect for far north Georgia through this evening where winds are slightly gustier. Elsewhere, a Fire Danger Statement remains in effect. Tuesday: Minimum RH values in the 20-30% range will again support Fire Danger Statement issuance areawide. The wind forecast was adjusted upward slightly for Tuesday afternoon, though even upwardly adjusted winds/gusts look to fall short of Red Flag thresholds at this time. Dangerous fire weather conditions are expected to persist each day through the week ahead. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 149 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Records for 04-14 Max Temperature Min Temperature Station High Low High Low ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 88 1922 44 1907 66 2015 27 1950 1919 KATL 88 1945 49 1913 66 2015 30 1950 1922 1920 1907 KCSG 92 1922 53 2000 67 2015 35 1950 1935 1947 1940 1907 KMCN 90 1922 52 1913 69 2015 34 1950 Records for 04-15 Max Temperature Min Temperature Station High Low High Low ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 89 1936 50 1952 68 1922 28 1943 KATL 87 1972 45 1903 66 1991 31 1950 1936 KCSG 91 1972 53 1952 69 1972 35 1943 1945 1922 KMCN 91 1972 53 1952 69 1922 31 1907 1936 Records for 04-16 Max Temperature Min Temperature Station High Low High Low ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 88 1930 50 1903 62 1982 30 1943 1925 1945 KATL 86 1896 49 1905 64 1945 32 1962 KCSG 92 1925 61 1961 69 1945 32 1950 1928 KMCN 91 1967 56 1905 67 1972 33 2014 2008 Records for 04-17 Max Temperature Min Temperature Station High Low High Low ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 90 1955 55 1949 63 2006 30 1949 1905 1982 1939 KATL 89 1896 44 1904 66 2024 31 1905 1896 KCSG 91 1955 58 1923 69 2006 32 1949 1925 1922 KMCN 92 1955 52 1904 69 2006 34 1949 Records for 04-18 Max Temperature Min Temperature Station High Low High Low ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 90 1942 54 1902 64 1969 32 1936 1927 KATL 87 2002 50 1983 69 1927 33 1997 1937 1896 KCSG 91 2002 60 2014 69 2006 37 1962 1930 1956 1927 KMCN 90 1967 55 1921 66 1922 33 2001 1955 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 56 87 58 88 / 0 0 0 0 Atlanta 60 86 61 87 / 0 0 0 0 Blairsville 54 82 54 85 / 0 0 0 0 Cartersville 58 87 57 89 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 56 87 57 88 / 0 0 0 0 Gainesville 59 86 60 87 / 0 0 0 0 Macon 56 87 57 89 / 0 0 0 0 Rome 57 87 57 89 / 0 0 0 0 Peachtree City 56 86 56 87 / 0 0 0 0 Vidalia 58 89 60 92 / 0 0 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ001>009- 011>016-019>021-030. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM....Culver AVIATION...RW  402 FXUS64 KLIX 131802 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 102 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1130 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 - Sun and temperature related health risks will be the primary concern with sunny skies and warm temperatures on tap through much of the week. Make sure to use sunscreen and drink plenty of water if you intend to be outside enjoying activities like sports and festivals. - Light fog development remains possible each morning particularly near water bodies. Chances for higher coverage of moderate to dense fog exists Tuesday and Wednesday morning, but forecast confidence is low at this time. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Wednesday) Issued at 1130 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 The upcoming days will be largely driven by persistent southeasterly flow on the southwest flank of a strong surface high centered near Bermuda. Temperatures will be strongly driven by diurnal forces and dew point temperatures in the low to mid 60s each day. The recent uptick in low-level moisture as noted by the 1200 UTC LIX sounding this morning does indicate that there will be sufficient moisture for fog development though our positioning away from the center of the surface high will make it more difficult for us to decouple and calm down at the surface, sufficient for fog development. This creates uncertainty in density and coverage of fog development tonight and Tuesday night. SREF/HREF probabilities indicate a medium chance for moderate to dense fog (3 miles to 1/2 mile) Tuesday morning, predominantly focused before and at sunrise, but another forecast cycle is needed to monitor trends and boost forecast confidence of any patch dense fog develop, particularly for southern MS and adjacent parishes. Days will largely start out with patchy, light to moderate fog particularly farther inland in areas of southern MS and Atchafalaya Basin which will quickly dissipate after sunrise. Once any fog clears, a cu field will gradually develop throughout the peak daytime heating hours. A few of these cu may tower a little taller and a stray shower cannot be ruled out. Anomalously warm temperatures aloft due to strong mid-upper ridging in the SE CONUS will also aid in rapid warming of temperatures into the mid 80s away from the immediate coast, around 5 to 10 degrees above normal. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1130 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A toasty end of the work week appears to be ahead with temperatures continuing to trend warmer Thursday through Saturday. The only caveat for Thursday being that the nose of the upper ridge will be eroded some by the passage of a weak shortwave trough across the Mid Mississippi River Valley. Even still, probabilities of temperatures reaching 90F near and northwest of Baton Rouge as well as the Pearl River Basin near and north of Bogalusa are 50-70% for Friday and Saturday. If 90F is reached, this would be about a month earlier than the average first 90F day for Baton Rouge (BTR). Another stronger trough will dig across the SW CONUS before ejecting and lifting through the central CONUS. This will generate a strong mid-latitude cyclone that will lift through the Great Lakes and help to drive colder air and a strong surface high pressure through the Mississippi River Valley this weekend. Uncertainty exists as it pertains to where this trough and surface cyclone eject as that longitude will matter regarding how strong any frontal system will be as it approaches the Gulf Coast around the Sunday timeframe. This would be our best bet at reprieve from the spring heat as well as supply us with our highest chance for rain in the forecast period. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1130 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 VFR prevailing conditions with diurnal cu and southeasterly winds of 8 to 15 knots and a few gusts upwards of 20 knots along coastal terminals this afternoon, expect similar conditions tomorrow. MVFR to IFR fog probabilities are modest at around 40-60% for more inland areas particularly involving BTR and MCB, but also cannot rule out light to moderate fog at HUM, HDC, GPT, and ASD. Confidence in fog development is low at this time. Future forecasts may refine fog timing and density. && .MARINE... Issued at 1130 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Strong surface high pressure from the northeast gulf into the Atlantic continues to produce a moderate easterly to southeasterly fetch over the northern Gulf. Winds have eased to just under 15 kt and should remain there throughout this week. At this time, the onshore fetch appears to be too weak to cause minor coastal flooding, but we will continue to monitor tidal trends as we approach the spring tide phase. Onshore flow will continue through at least Saturday with the potential for offshore flow from a cold front coming on Sunday and into early next week. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TJS LONG TERM....TJS AVIATION...TJS MARINE...TJS  654 FXUS62 KTBW 131802 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 202 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Cautionary-level marine winds evening into overnight through mid week. - Patchy late night/early morning fog possible mainly across the Nature Coast. - Moderate to extreme drought conditions continue. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1236 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Strong surface ridging in the Atlantic will be our main weather factor over much of the next 7 days. This ridge will be keeping us dry through the weekend with PW below 1 inch which is not good for our ongoing drought. The biggest weather concern will be the heat. We will see slowly warming temperatures each day with widespread 90's by Friday. By the weekend we will see near record breaking temperatures with highs topping out in the low to mid 90's. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 VFR conditions with easterly winds throughout the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 1236 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Strong ridging will keep our our winds of an easterly direction through the week with no showers in the forecast. Strong riding early in the week will resulting in speeds between 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20. By Wednesday afternoon those will start to come down and stay between 5 to 10 knots through the rest of the week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1236 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Strong ridging over the area will keep us dry throughout the week. This is not good news for our ongoing drought that we have been dealing with. We will be near critical RH values mainly across the Nature Coast and inland areas from Wednesday through Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 87 65 88 65 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 88 64 89 64 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 86 62 87 61 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 87 64 87 63 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 87 57 89 57 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 87 69 88 68 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley DECISION SUPPORT...Pearce UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Pearce  391 FXUS65 KBOI 131804 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 1204 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread valley rain and mountain snow above 4500 feet on Monday. - Much cooler temperatures with rain and snow showers Wednesday through Friday. - Snow levels will drop to near valley floors Thursday morning, with widespread lower elevation light snow likely. && .SHORT TERM /Through Wednesday Night/... Issued 608 AM MDT MON APR 13 2026 Wraparound moisture is filling in across the region, with rain below about 5500 feet. Nearly 1 inch of rain fell on Sunday across the region, with many locations overachieving significantly on precipitation amounts. As air continues to cool overnight, snow levels will drop to 4500 feet by the early morning, with about 1-3 inches of snow expected near McCall, ID and Idaho City, ID. This snow will likely melt quickly, as highs across the mountain valleys increase to the mid 40s by late morning. Valley rain and mountain snow will continue generally north of Mountain Home, ID overnight into mid morning, with breezy southwesterly winds accompanying the precipitation. The wraparound moisture and low center will move east by Monday afternoon, with precipitation generally tapering off by early afternoon. Graupel showers and a stray thunderstorm will form over over southeast Oregon by early afternoon, moving into southwest Idaho and lessening in coverage by early evening. Clearing Monday night into Tuesday morning will allow for fog formation across area valleys, especially in higher terrain. Dry conditions will continue on Tuesday as cool northwesterly flow aloft moves in. A very cold low pressure system will then move into the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday, bringing a robust cold front to the region on Wednesday evening. Gusty winds, isolated thunderstorms, and another push of widespread precipitation will accompany this frontal passage. Temperatures will drop to below freezing by Wednesday night, with most higher elevation locations changing from rain to snow by early evening. && .LONG TERM /Thursday through Monday/... Issued 608 AM MDT MON APR 13 2026 A cold front will continue to exit our area through Friday, ushering in a colder air mass and gusty west/northwest winds. While widespread precipitation will taper off, colder air aloft will allow for scattered showers to develop across the area. Depending on the exact low track, the West Central Mountains could see persistent additional precipitation on Thursday with the deformation zone of the low overhead. Snow levels will drop to valley floors on Thursday behind this front. Low snow levels, combined with diurnal instability, will support snow/wintry mix and graupel showers area- wide. Additional snowfall amounts of up to 4 inches are expected above 4500 ft MSL Thursday. Southern portions of the western Magic Valley have a 40-50% chance of seeing at least a half inch of snowfall. Elsewhere, little to no accumulations are expected. Winds Thursday afternoon will gust to 25-45 mph, with the strongest gusts in the typical areas east of Mountain Home and in the Camas Prairie. Temperatures Thursday morning will be near freezing throughout the Snake Plain, with widespread temperatures at or below freezing come Friday morning. For those who started their garden early, it may be good to consider covering up plants or bringing them inside. Precipitation chances and winds will taper off Friday, as the system exits our area to the east. This will also mark the start of a warming trend, with temperatures back up to near normal by Saturday as a ridge begins to build in. By Sunday, temperatures will warm to 5-10 degrees above normal. Confidence is increasing on another system digging down from the Gulf of Alaska early next week. While exact timing is uncertain, this will lead to increasing precipitation chances Sunday afternoon, remaining elevated (30-60%) through Monday. && .AVIATION /18Z Monday through Tuesday/... Issued 1152 AM MDT MON APR 13 2026 Widespread steady rain causing MVFR/IFR conditions throughout the area will move east, transitioning to scattered showers ending this evening. Strong showers could produce gusty winds and graupel. Snow levels are right around 6kft MSL. Tonight, after precip ends fog/low stratus become possible in the Snake Plain and mtn valleys. Surface winds: W-NW 5-15 kt with gusts to 20-25 kt, becoming variable up to 10 kt overnight. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-NW 10-20kt. KBOI...Steady rain is transitioning to scattered showers this afternoon. Rain dissipates overnight, with a slight chance of fog/low stratus Mon night/Tue AM. Surface winds: NW 5-10kt. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....JM SHORT TERM...SA LONG TERM....NF  600 FXUS61 KAKQ 131805 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 205 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the forecast at this time. Updated aviation discussion for 18z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Well above-normal temperatures this week, with record to near- record temperatures possible by midweek. 2) Continued dry with fire weather concerns expected for much of the week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 205 PM EDT Monday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Well above-normal temperatures this week, with record to near- record temperatures possible by midweek. Surface high offshore has settled offshore of the northeast coast, and will build south into the western Atlantic through midweek. The resulting persistent return flow will lock in a very warm, dry SSW flow regime for much of the week ahead. This Bermuda High set-up, more typical of early to mid summer, will allow for temperatures to increase to well above normal through the next several days. Highs tomorrow climb into the upper 80s to near 90F tomorrow, with low 90s (to isolated mid 90s) Wednesday into the upcoming weekend. Slightly cooler upper 80s across the Eastern Shore and near the coast through the week. These temperatures are likely to challenge record high temperatures across the area, with the current records at our long-term climate sites noted in the climate section below. With the strong high firmly in place across the area through at least the end of the week, any fronts approaching the region will wash out before reaching our area. Global model ensembles continue to suggest that a stronger front drops across the area late in the upcoming weekend, with at least a slight chance of rain in its wake. Meanwhile, building east coast trough will finally serve to break the heat ridge early next week. KEY MESSAGE 2...Continued dry with fire weather concerns expected for much of the week. With high pressure dominating our weather pattern, and no appreciable precipitation expected through the end of the week, fire weather concerns will remain an issue to monitor for much of the week ahead. After collaboration with state forestry officials and surrounding weather offices, will not be issuing any further Increased Fire Statements at this time. While breezy return flow continues tomorrow, winds/gusts are not quite as high tomorrow. That said, RH values are, and will continue to be dry, averaging 25-30% inland, 30-35% closer to the coast. Overall though, fire wx conditions remain a bit above critical fire wx thresholds tomorrow through midweek. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 205 PM EDT Monday... VFR conditions will continue through tonight, with generally only upper-level clouds expected. Breezy SW flow continues across coastal terminals this afternoon, averaging ~15-18kt with gusts to 20-25kt, with occasional gusts to ~30 kts possible. Winds gradually diminish this evening, relaxing to ~8-10kt overnight/early Tuesday. Becoming gusty again late tomorrow morning, but less so than today, with SSW winds remaining around 10 kt, gusting to ~15-20kt. Outlook: VFR and dry conditions are expected to prevail Tuesday night through Saturday. SSW winds prevail throughout the forecast period, as high pressure settles over the western Atlantic. && .MARINE... As of 245 AM EDT Monday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Chesapeake Bay this evening into tonight and for the northern coastal waters late tonight through Monday. - Generally sub-SCA conditions prevail Tuesday through next week outside of daily, brief surges in the evenings. High pressure is centered offshore early this morning as a weak system tracks well to our north. Southerly winds have increased to 15-20 kt (highest north) with seas of 3-4 ft (perhaps up to 5 ft north but unfortunately buoy 44009 and 44089 aren't reporting attm). SCAs remain in effect for the northern coastal waters and bay north of New Pt Comfort for the ongoing winds. Winds become SW and diminish to ~15 kt by mid morning, but will likely become gusty near the land/water interface and on the rivers during the late morning- afternoon due to daytime mixing over adjacent land areas. Gusts to 20-25 kt are possible for a few hours on the rivers and nearshore on the lower bay with the southwesterly wind direction (peak winds will likely occur between 11 AM-4 PM). Therefore, have issued new SCAs for the rivers and lower bay from 10 AM-6 PM today. The SCAs continue for the northern coastal waters through this evening, but it looks quite marginal with seas only reaching 5 ft closer to 20 nm offshore. SW winds diminish to 10-15 kt tonight. Generally sub-SCA conditions are expected from Tue through the end of the week as a large ridge aloft continues to build across the eastern CONUS. However, occasional periods of elevated winds are possible (mainly in the evenings) through the week. As such, additional marginal SCAs cannot be ruled out. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temps for 4/13 - 4/16 Record Record Record Record High/Year High/Year High/Year High/Year Location 4/13 4/14 4/15 4/16 -------- ---- ----- ------ ------ Richmond 91 (1977) 90 (1977) 92 (1941) 93 (1976) Norfolk 88 (1977) 90 (1941) 90 (2024) 91 (1976) Salisbury 87 (2023) 87 (1941) 87 (1941) 89 (1976) Eliz. City 90 (1948) 90 (1941) 91 (1941) 90 (1941) Record High Min Temps for 4/13 - 4/16 Record Record Record Record High High High High Min T/Year Min T/Year Min T/Year Min T/Year Location 4/13 4/14 4/15 4/16 -------- ---- ----- ------ ------ Richmond 64 (1994) 65 (1899) 64 (2018) 64 (1912) Norfolk 65 (1994) 68 (2019) 68 (1941) 66 (2017) Salisbury 62 (2019) 65 (1945) 64 (2002) 63 (2017) Eliz. City 67 (2019) 68 (2019) 68 (1974) 68 (1994) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER until 6 PM EDT this evening for VAZ048- 060>062-064>069-075-076-079>083-087-088-509>522. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ630>632-634>638. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650-652-654. && $$ DISCUSSION...MAM/NB AVIATION...MAM/NB MARINE...ERI/RMM CLIMATE...MAM  942 FXUS63 KGRR 131806 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 206 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Excessive rainfall/severe threat this week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 233 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 - Excessive rainfall/severe threat this week The threat of excessive rain continues through the end of the week, along with severe storms in the vicinity of a stalled front across central Lower Michigan. There will be a short lull today between the rain moving through early this morning and an expected flare up of convection this evening as another wave of low pressure moves along the baroclinic zone. The CAMs show convection across southern WI/northern IL this afternoon moving east as multicell clusters or bowing lines when they reach southwest Lower Michigan in the evening. Hail and downburst winds are the main threat, along with localized flooding as very moist airmass yields heavy rain rates falling on saturated ground. The process repeats several successive times Tuesday through Saturday as shortwave energy ejects from with western CONUS longwave trough persistent baroclinic zone and southwest flow keeping deep moisture in place. A break in the action may finally come later this weekend as sfc high builds in followed by shortwave upper ridging early next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 205 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 202 Southwest Lower Michigan is in southwest flow at 18z, with a lifting cloud deck generated from last night's rainfall. The ceilings are in the process of lifting from mainly MVFR to VFR. We await additional showers and thunderstorms that will spread in tonight, likely affecting most of if not all of the TAF sites. Confidence is not high in how storms evolve though. We will see a repeat of lower clouds settling in once again with the rain and cooling of the nighttime. The lower ceilings will persist into the morning hours of Tuesday before trying to lift to VFR once again midday Tuesday. && .MARINE... Issued at 233 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 No changes to the SCA. There will be a brief lull this afternoon and evening before winds and waves pick up again tonight so another SCA will probably be needed for tonight and Tuesday when the current SCA expires. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for MIZ037>040-043>046- 050>052. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for LMZ844>849. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ844>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...Ostuno AVIATION...Duke MARINE...Ostuno  828 FXUS64 KMOB 131807 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 107 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 104 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 - Moderate to extreme drought, with little to no rain over the next 7 days, will exacerbate wildfire activity. - Patchy to areas of fog development, some of which could be dense, is possible over the next few nights. - A moderate rip current risk is expected for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches through midweek. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 104 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Through Thursday...an upper ridge stretching northeast from an upper high over the Gulf remains in control of the Southeast. A strong upper level shortwave trough passes well north of the forecast area Thursday/Thursday night, temporarily weakening the upper ridge over the northern half of the eastern Conus, but this only temporarily. A surface ridge stretching west over the Southeast is maintained, keeping the region under southeast to southerly flow through mid week. Subsidence from the upper ridge will keep deep layer moisture levels low (1.0" or less), especially over eastern portions of the forecast area. This will keep the forecast area dry, even with Thursday's passing shortwave trough. The passing shortwave does weaken the surface trough, though, along with bringing a temporary uptick in deep layer moisture levels. There is expected to be enough moisture in boundary for overnight fog development each night through Thursday night. Hard to pin down any dense fog developing where and when, so will have to play this by ear. Temperatures remain above seasonal norms, with high temperatures topping out in the low to mid 80s well inland from the coast, upper 70s to near 80 near and on the coast. Low temperatures see a small uptick through the period, from the mid 50s to around 60 tonight rising to around 60 to mid 60s by Thursday night. Friday through Monday, guidance is advertising a closed upper low moving east over/along the northern US/Ca border Saturday through the weekend, along with some shortwave energy moving through the flow over the southern half of the Conus. A surface cold front moves across the forecast area later Saturday night into Sunday night in response. Significant differences in the path of the major closed upper low is creating significant differences in the strength of the cold front and cold air pushing south over the Southeast. Guidance also varies in the effects of the passing shortwave energy, especially the further south the cold front moves. The current forecast is based upon any decent upper support remaining well north of the forecast any area and PoPs remaining low. Temperatures ahead of the front's passage remain well above seasonal norms, with possible bumping of record highs Friday. Behind, there is a drop in temperatures for the coming week. How much is hard to pin down right now. A steady southeast to southerly flow will keep swell incoming on area beaches. With a low tidal range, am expecting a Moderate Risk of Rip Currents through Friday. Disruption of the surface ridge later in the week will decrease incoming swell and drop the Rip Risk to Low for the coming weekend. /16 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 104 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 VFR conditions are expected to continue through the evening hours. By the overnight hours, fog and low ceilings are expected to develop, primarily over our interior counties. Fog may become dense in spots. At this point the best probabilities for dense fog look to remain north of our local TAF sites (although KMOB could see brief reductions to IFR or lower by around sunrise). Any fog or low ceilings that do develop tonight will dissipate a little after sunrise. A general southerly flow this afternoon will become more light and variable tonight. /96 && .MARINE... Issued at 104 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow is expected through the forecast. /16 && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 104 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Looking at fire weather concerns over the forecast area, with drought conditions, and dry fuels, a Moderate Risk of a Significant Fire Potential is in effect through the week. Winds remain light enough and afternoon relative humidity values a bit too moist to hoist a by the criteria Red Flag Watch/Warning at this time for the next few days. Still, playing this by ear. /16 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 60 82 60 82 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 60 79 63 79 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 62 77 64 78 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 55 86 54 86 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 58 86 57 86 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 56 85 56 85 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 55 85 56 86 / 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$  250 FXUS64 KLCH 131809 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 109 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 80s for a majority of the area, with some low 90s possible. - Next good chance for showers and thunderstorms comes in next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Sunday) Issued at 107 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Midday surface analysis shows high pressure situated off the East Coast, providing a light to moderate onshore flow across the forecast area. Aloft, ridging is situated across much of the eastern CONUS as well. Temperatures will warm into the mid 80s this afternoon beneath partly cloudy skies, while overnight lows fall into the mid to upper 60s. Both surface and upper level ridging will continue to dominate the forecast area as we move through the work week, bringing about a rather repetitive forecast. Highs will continue to warm into the mid to upper 80s, while overnight lows fall into the mid to upper 60s. While no rainfall is expected through the work week thanks to ridging aloft, moisture will continue to pool over the region. We may begin to see some fog issues during the late night/early morning time period later this week, as winds start to relax a bit. Otherwise, hot and dry conditions prevail. By the end of the week, parts of CENLA are expected to reach 90 degrees for the first time this year, feeling much more like summer than mid-spring. Moving into the weekend, a pattern change arrives as a upper level trough diving across the Plains sends a cold front southward and through the forecast area. Frontal passage is expected to occur late Sat into early Sun, and will be accompanied by showers and storms. Still too early to determine if we will see any severe weather with this convection, but if that were to occur it would likely be through the overnight hours Sat. Behind the front, a brief shot of cooler and drier air arrives making for a very pleasant end to the weekend. && .MARINE... Issued at 107 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 High pressure draped across the southeastern US will maintain a moderate southeasterly flow across the Northern Gulf for the next several days with seas remaining consistently between 2-3 feet over the nearshore coastal waters and 3-5 feet over the outer coastal waters. No convection is expected until late in the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 107 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Southerly winds will continue to be breezy mainly in the afternoon to evening hours over the next few days. Relative humidity values will slowly increase through the week as moisture continues to be transported in from the Gulf. Little to no chances for showers are likely during the work week, however rain chances increase this weekend with an incoming cold front. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...17 AVIATION...17  161 FXUS63 KGID 131810 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 110 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Fire weather is a primary hazard to focus on this afternoon, and potentially tomorrow in north central Kansas. Thursday will also be warm, dry, and windy, and could be another day for fire concerns. - There is a chance for a shower or thunderstorm Tuesday evening (20-50% with best chances far southeast and far northwest), but it currently looks more likely that most of the area remains dry, and any precipitation will likely be less than a tenth of an inch. - The next strong storm system arrives late Friday into early Saturday. Expect thunderstorms on the leading edge of this storm with snow on the back side of the storm. The current most likely storm track suggests the best chance for thunderstorms is east of HWY 281, and the greatest chance for rain changing to snow is north of the Platte River. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1221 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A discussion on fire-weather-specific information can be found in the Fire section below. Surface low pressure located near Kearney at mid day will gradually develop northeast toward Albion through this afternoon. Warm and dry air will overspread the entire area this afternoon. One thing to watch this afternoon will be a low-end potential for isolated convection to develop in the wraparound moisture on the west side of the surface low. We most likely should stay precipitation free, but there's about a 10% chance for development in far northern counties of the forecast area around 5 PM, and a better chance farther north. As we get into the overnight hours and the low pressure moves off to the northeast, cooler and moisture air will push south into many of our Nebraska counties while new low pressure develops in northwest KS. This front will likely stall in the vicinity of the KS/NE border and hang out in that area on Tuesday. Expect a good pool of low level moisture immediately on the cool side of the front while areas to the south remain warm and in a dry airmass. While a ribbon of instability is likely to develop near/north of the front, there will be a very strong cap in place and surface based storms are not expected. As we get a bit deeper into the evening, there is some potential for increased convergence along and just north of the boundary to provide a semi-favorable environment for breaking the cap, but would require significant moisture transport and pooling through a pretty good depth and into the warm layer aloft. As of now, forecast soundings are not favorable for thunderstorm development, and if it does happen would stand a better chance with eastward extent. Farther north, closer to the core of a short wave trough with weaker cap and stronger forcing, there is a better chance for showers or a few thunderstorms to develop and skirt across our northern counties, but truthfully that precip potential is greater farther to the north. A few wraparound showers could linger into Wednesday, depending on how quickly the system moves off to the east. Overall, this system does not look particularly rainy for south central NE or north central KS. After a period of mid level ridging on Thursday, there is good model agreement with high probability for a strong storm system tracking from Colorado across KS/NE late Friday into Saturday. This has the look (and the temperature profile) of a classic spring system with thunderstorms ahead of the low, snow on the northwest quadrant, and plenty of wind for everyone. Any severe storm potential will be highly dependent upon timing of the storm system, and current indications suggest a higher likelihood of severe storms east of the local forecast area, so we'll be watching potential for the system to slow down and pull better moisture back to the west. The snow potential will also be highly dependent upon the storm track, and right now the greatest potential appears to be north of the local forecast area. Where it does snow, it will be accompanied by strong winds, and so this too is worth very closely monitoring as it could make for hazardous travel conditions Friday night into Saturday morning. After this system, should see a period of slightly cooler conditions with calmer weather overall...at least into the first couple days of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1140 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: TAFs are primarily focused on timing of wind shifts and gusts this afternoon and also early Tuesday. There is some indication that low ceilings or even fog could develop into GRI or perhaps even EAR between 10Z-13Z, but at this time it appears more likely to remain VFR. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Today: Low pressure moving from near Kearney to near Columbus this afternoon will pull a narrow sector of warm and very dry air across the forecast area today. As temperatures warm, wind speeds will increase this afternoon with gusts to 25 mph, and some potential for a few gusts to 30 mph. Also expect the wind direction to gradually become more westerly as the afternoon progresses...no sharp wind shifts are expected but more of a gradual change. Near sunset, the wind gusts should come to an end with RH slowly recovering into the evening. Overnight, winds will turn out of the northeast in most Nebraska counties as a front slowly drifts southward, but should remain mainly out of the south in Kansas counties. RH will also increase with RH above 80% north of the front overnight into Tuesday morning. Tuesday: For much of the day on Tuesday, a front will extend from near Norton to near Hebron, give or take 30 miles or so. North of that front, winds will be out of the northeast and gusty at times, with RH starting the day around 90% and reaching an afternoon minimum around 40%. South of the front, the airmass will be much drier with southwest or westerly winds. MinRH in these areas will be in the 12-16% range, and while winds may gust 20-25 mph, there is some uncertainty in just how strong the winds will be, and whether or not they will reach Red Flag criteria. At this time, with less confidence in the afternoon wind speeds, will maintain the fire weather watch for KS counties as it stands, with intent to make a warn/no-warn decision late this evening or early Tuesday. WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY: Thursday looks like the best chance for warm, dry, and windy conditions possibly leading to another Red Flag setup. Friday could also feature a dryline scenario with very low afternoon RH in parts of the area, especially southwest, and followed by a cold frontal passage and a wind shift out of the northwest. The best chance for meaningful precipitation appears to arrive late Friday, although far from a guarantee of widespread wetting rain. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ039>041- 046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087. KS...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005>007- 017>019. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for KSZ005>007-017>019. && $$ DISCUSSION...Barjenbruch (OAX) AVIATION...Barjenbruch (OAX) FIRE WEATHER...Barjenbruch (OAX)  396 FXUS64 KJAN 131810 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 110 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Limited fire danger will continue today. - Drought conditions continue to increase across the region due to prolonged dry weather. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 110 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Tonight through Sunday...The main impacts during this forecast period will come Tuesday in the form of some potential for patchy dense fog across namely Southeast Mississippi early in the morning and some continued "limited" fire weather concerns from late morning through the afternoon, Thursday as a disturbance moves through the Mid-South, and over the weekend as a frontal boundary is advertised to push through the CWA. Otherwise, strong high pressure aloft will continue to meander over the central and eastern Gulf of America. This, while high pressure at the surface centered off the coast of the Carolinas, remains wedged into the Deep South from the east. The combination of the two will continue to promote overall quiet conditions and above normal warmth across the forecast area through much of this forecast period. On Tuesday, with increased moisture, mild conditions, and light to calm winds early in the morning, some patchy dense fog is possible across mainly Southeast Mississippi. This will quickly begin dissipating after sunrise. Come late morning and afternoon, some fire weather concerns will persist across the area given the dry fuels from the ongoing drought and breezy southerly winds. Afternoon minimum relative humidity values will again mix into the 35-45% range, especially across eastern portions of the area where they'll hover more in the 35-40% range. Despite the increased humidity levels and greening vegetation, this "limited" fire danger threat for Tuesday will again primarily be driven by the aforementioned breezy winds and very dry soil conditions. Just the combination of these two could lead to some increase in wild fires across the area and the potential for even monitored open burning to potentially get out of hand. There will be a slight increase in rain chances across northern portions of the forecast area on Thursday. While the remainder of the CWA will remain dry, a shortwave lifting northeast across the Mid-South region could spark some isolated showers and storms across mainly the Highway 82 corridor during peak heating hours Thursday afternoon. Any convection that develops during this time, will quickly dissipate in the early evening as day time heating wanes. Finally, a better chance for showers and isolated storms currently exists across the entire forecast area Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. This is as a result of a stronger shortwave that's advertised to push a cold front east into and through the region late Saturday afternoon into early Sunday. While any rain chances are much appreciated and welcomed, unfortunately this front will be in the process of weakening as forcing lifts out to the northeast. This looks to keep the better rain chances during this timeframe across western and northern portions of the forecast area. Therefore, the upcoming weekend is by no means looking to be a washout. However, some relief from the above normal warmth and humid conditions is being advertised for the forecast area on Sunday. /19/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 110 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 VFR flight conditions with lingering stratus clouds and southerly winds near 10-15 kts with 20-25 kt gusts. Stratus clouds are expected to erode late this afternoon into the evening. Clearing will be brief as stratus clouds returns and potential fog develop across the southeast Tuesday morning. MVFR/possible IFR flight condition possible where fog develop, and VFR flight conditions elsewhere. /SW/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 62 86 61 86 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 58 85 57 85 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 63 87 62 87 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 60 86 59 87 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 63 86 62 86 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 66 87 65 86 / 10 0 0 0 Greenwood 65 87 63 86 / 10 0 0 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ 19/SW  164 FXUS61 KBUF 131811 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 211 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes have been made with this update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Warm with rounds of showers and thunderstorms through mid week. 2) Risk for severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall Tuesday and Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Warm with rounds of showers and thunderstorms through mid week. Eastern CONUS ridge will strengthen this week with western and north central New York on the northern fridge of the high centered over the eastern Gulf. Deep layered southwest flow will keep the region warm and moist through mid week. Several shortwaves will pass through the region on the northern periphery of the eastern ridge, leading to chances for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday. This pattern will favorable warmer than normal temperatures, averaging 10 to as much as 20 degrees above mid April normals. While record high temperatures do not look likely with expected cloud cover and rounds showers, record warm lows will be possible. KEY MESSAGE 2...Risk for severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall Tuesday through Thursday. Nearly stationary frontal boundary lying in the vicinity of southern Ontario and northern New York will keep the area within the warm sector through Thursday. Uncertainty exists with the degree of diurnal instability that may be able to develop, with rounds of showers and cloud cover, however cloud breaks and passing shortwaves will increase chances for severe storms in the Tuesday through Thursday time period. Given the broad southwest flow and open gulf, precipitable water values will be well above average for this time of the year. NAEFS and EPS tables indicating that the precipitable water anomaly may be as much as 2 to 3 standard deviations above mid April climatology, with model means around 1.25 inches. This will support the potential for localized heavy rainfall. Areawide basin average rainfall amounts look to fall in the 1.00" to 2.00" range through Thursday, so although within bank rises will likely be observed on creeks and rivers, the overall threat for more widespread flooding remains low. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The back edge of the more organized showers is now in the process of crossing the North Country...with these expected to exit to our east between 18z and 19z. The rest of the day will be mainly dry across the lake plains...while further inland diurnal heating and lingering moisture will support enough instability to support some scattered showers across the Southern Tier/Finger Lakes/North Country...along with the possibility of a couple isolated weak thunderstorms across the Southern Tier and interior of the Finger Lakes. Expect a general mix of MVFR/lower-end VFR ceilings to prevail outside of any precipitation...with any showers/storms capable of briefly reducing visibility to IFR/MVFR. Otherwise still-breezy to windy conditions early this afternoon (featuring gusts to 35-40 knots across the lake plains south of Lake Ontario, and to 25-35 knots elsewhere) will rapidly subside late this afternoon and early this evening. Once we get into the nighttime hours generally dry conditions will prevail through much of the night...before an approaching warm front brings renewed chances for showers and thunderstorms to areas from about the Genesee Valley westward after 09z...and then in a more general areawide sense during Tuesday morning. Ceilings through the early overnight hours will deteriorate to IFR east of Lake Ontario while remaining a general MVFR to VFR mix elsewhere...though some lower (IFR) ceilings may also develop over and just inland from Lake Erie and the Niagara River as our warm/moist airmass crosses the cooler lake waters. Late tonight and Tuesday morning some reductions to IFR/MVFR visibility will become possible again within any heavier showers/storms. Finally...a redeveloping southwesterly low level jet may lead to another round of LLWS at KIAG and possibly at KBUF from late tonight into early Tuesday morning. Outlook... Tuesday afternoon through Thursday night...VFR/MVFR with some local IFR at times. Numerous rounds of showers and scattered thunderstorms. Friday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of a few showers...and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm across the Southern Tier/interior Finger Lakes. Saturday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of mainly afternoon showers. The back edge of the more organized showers is now in the process of crossing the North Country...with these expected to exit to our east between 18z and 19z. The rest of the day will be mainly dry across the lake plains...while further inland diurnal heating and lingering moisture will support enough instability to support some scattered showers across the Southern Tier/Finger Lakes/North Country...along with the possibility of a couple isolated weak thunderstorms across the Southern Tier and interior of the Finger Lakes. Expect a general mix of MVFR/lower-end VFR ceilings to prevail outside of any precipitation...with any showers/storms capable of briefly reducing visibility to IFR/MVFR. Otherwise still-breezy to windy conditions early this afternoon (featuring gusts to 35-40 knots across the lake plains south of Lake Ontario, and to 25-35 knots elsewhere) will rapidly subside late this afternoon and early this evening. Once we get into the nighttime hours generally dry conditions will prevail through much of the night...before an approaching warm front brings renewed chances for showers and thunderstorms to areas from about the Genesee Valley westward after 09z...and then in a more general areawide sense during Tuesday morning. Ceilings through the early overnight hours will deteriorate to IFR east of Lake Ontario while remaining a general MVFR to VFR mix elsewhere...though some lower (IFR) ceilings may also develop over and just inland from Lake Erie and the Niagara River as our warm/moist airmass crosses the cooler lake waters. Late tonight and Tuesday morning some reductions to IFR/MVFR visibility will become possible again within any heavier showers/storms. Finally...a redeveloping southwesterly low level jet may lead to another round of LLWS at KIAG and possibly at KBUF from late tonight into early Tuesday morning. Outlook... Tuesday afternoon through Thursday night...VFR/MVFR with some local IFR at times. Numerous rounds of showers and scattered thunderstorms. Friday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of a few showers...and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm across the Southern Tier/interior Finger Lakes. Saturday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of mainly afternoon showers. && .MARINE... Elevated southwest flow will continue through this afternoon before wind speeds lower considerably by this evening. Small Craft headlines currently in place will drop off from west to east through this evening. South to southwest winds will continue on the lower Great Lakes through the end of the week. There may be periodic upticks to sustained wind speed toward 20 knots, but for the most part speeds should remain at or below 15 knots. Periodic thunderstorm chances will be present through Thursday. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020- 040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for LOZ030. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LOZ042-043. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LOZ044-045. && $$ DISCUSSION...TMA AVIATION...JJR MARINE...TMA  274 FXUS62 KGSP 131811 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 211 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... An SPS for Increased Fire Danger has been issued for the NC Piedmont and is in effect until 8 PM today. The aviation discussion was updated for the 18z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Fire weather concerns continue amid a dry and stagnant weather pattern. A Red Flag Warning is in effect through 8 PM this evening for parts of northeast Georgia. A Fire Danger Statement is in effect through 8 PM for the North Carolina Piedmont as well as those parts of northeast Georgia not included in the Red Flag Warning. 2. Dry and hot through Saturday with daily record highs in jeopardy Tuesday through Saturday. A cold front may finally bring some drought relief Sunday, but that is more uncertain. Seasonable but very dry Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Key message 1: Fire weather concerns continue amid a dry and stagnant weather pattern. A Red Flag Warning is in effect through 8 PM this evening for parts of northeast Georgia. A Fire Danger Statement is in effect through 8 PM for the North Carolina Piedmont as well as those parts of northeast Georgia not included in the Red Flag Warning. Dry conditions continue across the region this afternoon, with only some high-level cirrus across most of the area, and some possible high-based cumulus as we approach peak heating. A robust mixed layer is beginning to develop, as per recent ACARS and NUCAPS data...and this has been accompanied by increasingly frequent wind gusts, as the boundary layer begins tapping into somewhat stronger low-level winds aloft. Expect a breezy afternoon...and in response to dewpoint mixing, RHs seem likely to fall to near 30%...perhaps lower in some locations in the Upstate and Piedmont. The Red Flag Warning for Rabun and Habersham Counties remains in effect through 8 PM. The Fire Danger Statement for other northeast Georgia counties also remains in effect through 8 PM. In addition, the North Carolina Forest Service indicated that fuels were dry enough to warrant a Fire Danger Statement for this afternoon, and so one is now in effect through 8 PM. Concern remains elevated for Tuesday. Although steady SW winds will continue, they'll advect very little additional moisture into the area. Dewpoints should hover within a degree or two of where they are this afternoon, and temperatures will increase at least a category...so RH on Tuesday should bottom out about as dry as today, despite marginally less dry air aloft to mix down. The remainder of the week looks like on-and-off fire wx will remain an issue. Near-critical RHs expected each afternoon through this weekend, with little if any wetting rain and ongoing D2 to D3 drought, will drive continued potential for wildfire development and spread...so more Fire Danger products are probably in the cards. Key message 2: Dry and hot through Saturday with daily record highs in jeopardy Tuesday through Saturday. A cold front may finally bring some drought relief Sunday, but that is more uncertain. Seasonable but very dry Monday. An upper upper ridge and surface Bermuda high will bring summer-like conditions to the area into Saturday. A cold front does approach the area on Thursday but is mainly deflected by the high. Can't rule out isolated showers for the mountains late Thursday or Thursday night, but overall chance is low. While the heat will be summer- like, and near daily record highs, the humidity won't. Relative humidity values will be in the 25 to 30 percent range each afternoon, keeping the potential for high fire danger in place, even winds on the lighter side. That said, gusty winds may develop Thursday and again on Saturday, which could make fire weather conditions worse. There are still questions regarding the amount of moisture available ahead of the cold front on Sunday. The GFS continues to low rain chances for the mountains but little to no rain elsewhere as it keeps the low level flow more westerly limiting any Gulf moisture inflow. The Canadian has trended in this direction as well. The ECMWF remains on the wetter side, but favors NC over the Upstate and NE GA. The model blend is similar to the ECMWF, so chance PoP is limited to NC at this time. Therefore, questions remain on the potential for any significant drought relief. Temps cool on Sunday but remain well above normal. Temps fall to near normal behind the front on Monday, but the airmass is very dry with relative humidity falling back to critically low levels. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Dry and VFR conditions continue for the 12z TAF period. FEW to SCT cirrus still observed over much of the forecast area, but should begin to diminish tonight, with FEW/SKC expected after sunset for most terminals. Winds will remain out of the SW at 6-12kts this afternoon, becoming light and variable overnight. Then come morning, winds will pick up again out of the SW, with some afternoon gusts expected again. Outlook: Dry and VFR conditions persist through at least Wednesday. && .CLIMATE... RECORDS FOR 04-14 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 86 2006 36 1907 62 1922 24 1950 KCLT 89 1941 46 1907 69 1922 27 1950 KGSP 92 1916 48 1901 67 1922 22 1907 RECORDS FOR 04-15 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 89 1972 42 1943 64 1887 23 1907 KCLT 89 1936 46 1889 66 2006 28 1907 KGSP 91 2006 45 1913 69 1922 22 1907 RECORDS FOR 04-16 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 87 2006 42 1905 62 1945 26 1943 KCLT 89 2006 49 1890 64 1998 29 2008 1896 1991 1962 1945 KGSP 88 1888 54 1903 64 1945 24 1907 RECORDS FOR 04-17 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 89 1896 45 1890 63 1927 26 1904 KCLT 94 1896 47 1890 66 1896 30 2018 1949 KGSP 92 2006 51 1904 63 1927 25 1905 RECORDS FOR 04-18 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 90 1896 44 1921 60 1927 28 1905 1891 KCLT 93 1896 45 1983 66 1896 32 2001 KGSP 89 2002 51 1983 66 1927 28 1905 1967 && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ010-017. INCREASED FIRE DANGER until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ018- 026-028-029. NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ036- 037-056-057-068>072-082. SC...None. && $$ MPR/RWH  637 FXUS61 KCAR 131812 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 212 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... - No major changes to the forecast for this update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Above normal temperatures through the end of the week combined with some rainfall will result in river ice continuing to break up, melt, and clear out on the northern rivers. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Above normal temperatures through the end of the week combined with some rainfall will result in river ice continuing to break up, melt, and clear out on the northern rivers. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Per the previous discussion: High temperatures across the north are expected to be in the low 50s through mid-week and in the upper 50s to near 60 late this week. This will result in river ice across the north continuing to melt and break up. So far there has been no ice jam flooding reported and the ice-out has been gentle. However, some of the river gauges across the north including Dickey and Fort Kent on the St. John River have shown some spikes and fluctuations in river level as the ice begins to move. Additional rainfall across the north of around a half inch today and a quarter inch Tuesday night will add to the snow and ice melt contributing to additional rises on the rivers. Significant flooding is currently not anticipated at this time. However, given that the ice is still moving and breaking up, we will have to continue to monitor the potential for some ice jams and continued fluctuation of river levels over the north. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Rest of This Afternoon...IFR/MVFR, trending to VFR at KBGR and KBHB. Showers. S wind 10 to 20 kt with gusts Tonight...MVFR or lower north, VFR KBGR and KBHB. SW wind 5 to 10 kt becoming NW. Tuesday...VFR early, then MVFR/IFR in developing afternoon rain. N wind 5 to 10 kt becoming S. Tuesday night...MVFR or lower. N to NE wind 5 to 10 kt. Wednesday...MVFR dropping to IFR south. IFR north, improving to MVFR late. SE to E wind around 5 kt. Wednesday night...MVFR to VFR north. IFR TO MVFR south. N wind around 5 kt. Thursday...MVFR becoming IFR south. VFR becoming MVFR then IFR north. SE wind 5 to 10 kt. Thursday night...IFR, becoming MVFR late. Light and variable wind. Friday-Saturday...VFR. NW wind around 5 kt. && .MARINE... Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through late tonight for the intra coastal zone and through early Tuesday morning for the outermost waters. Winds/seas are expected to remain below SCA levels Tuesday night. Wind and seas will remain below SCA from mid week this week through the coming weekend. Moist air over the colder waters may result in some fog and mist over the waters and along the coast at times, especially Wednesday and again on Friday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ050-051. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ052. && $$ DISCUSSION...TWD/ARL AVIATION...TWD/ARL  222 FXUS62 KCHS 131812 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 212 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... All sections have been updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Dry weather and above-normal temperatures expected to continue through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry weather and above-normal temperatures expected to continue through the weekend. Overall, no significant change to the forecast thinking for the next 7 days. Prominent ridging aloft and subtropical high pressure at the surface will continue to yield a rain-free forecast with well-above normal temperatures across the region through the weekend. Temperatures will continue to trend upward, with widespread upper 80s and low 90s expected starting Wednesday. In fact, low to mid 90s are expected by Friday. High temperatures could start to come within a few degrees of daily record as early as Tuesday, but the best chances of reaching records will come late this week and into the weekend (see Climate section below). The combination of well above normal temperatures and no rainfall will only serve to further worsen ongoing Extreme (D3) drought conditions highlighted by the US Drought Monitor. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The 18z TAF period begins with VFR conditions at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV. While VFR is expected to mostly prevail through the 18z TAF period, there will be the potential for fog development around sunrise. The best chance for fog and a period of lower visibility will be at KSAV. For now, we have introduced a TEMPO group with MVFR visibility from 10-13z. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR. && .MARINE... Through Saturday: Subtropical high pressure centered to the east will continue to drive persistent south to southwest flow across the local waters this week. Winds will mostly top out in the 10-15 knot range, with some daily local enhancement along the land/sea interface with the sea breeze circulation each afternoon and evening. Seas should stay within the 2-4 ft range through the period. Rip Currents: A Moderate Risk of rip currents continues for the GA beaches through this evening. Tuesday is expected to bring a Low Risk at all beaches. For Wednesday, slightly higher swell and slightly stronger winds are expected to result in a Moderate Risk for the SC beaches. This Moderate Risk for Wednesday could expand to the GA beaches as conditions should be similar. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: April 14: KSAV: 90/1922 April 16: KSAV: 92/1967 April 17: KCHS: 91/1967 KCXM: 86/2006 KSAV: 95/1967 April 18: KCHS: 92/1967 KSAV: 93/1967 April 19: KCHS: 91/1995 KCXM: 90/1917 KSAV: 92/1968 Record High Minimum Temperatures: April 19: KCHS: 66/1975 KCXM: 70/2002 KSAV: 69/1880 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$  327 FXUS63 KMQT 131812 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 212 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of showers and thunderstorms lifts into the UP tonight through early Tuesday morning. There is a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms across the stateline border counties, although the chances seem to be decreasing as most convection is now predicted south of us in Wisconsin. - Any heavy rainfall received will exacerbate ongoing flooding concerns. There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 4) for flash flooding with tonight into early Tuesday morning's rainfall event. - A prolonged period of well above freezing temperatures and higher dewpoints will bring increased snowmelt. This, combined with periods of potentially heavy rainfall and thunderstorms, will accelerate river rises and lead to ponding of water in areas with poor drainage. A Flood Watch remains in place for all of Upper Michigan through Wednesday morning && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 155 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Satellite imagery shows low-level cloud cover remaining across most of the U.P. early this afternoon as very weak high pressure ridging moves through the area. The low-level clouds are thanks to the warm temperatures and dewpoints moving over the remaining melting snowpack, which has caused some fog problems since yesterday afternoon. However, with sunshine now starting to show itself in southern Menominee County this afternoon, temperatures down that way are rising into the lower 60s. Thinking the 50s to lower 60s will be seen across the area by late this afternoon, with the warmest temperatures in the south central as the cloud cover slowly gives way to sunshine. That being said, another round of rainfall is expected to move through the U.P. tonight through early Tuesday morning. Thankfully for flooding and severe weather purposes, it looks like most of the rainfall and severe weather potential has shifted south of the area into Wisconsin over the past 24 hours. Thus, lower rainfall amounts are generally expected in comparison to 24 hours, as well as the threat being lowered for severe weather. That being said, we could see some spots get to around half an inch of liquid, with maybe an isolated spot or two getting up to 1 inch if some heavier rainfall hangs out for a couple of hours; the heaviest rainfall is still expected in the south central where flooding was and still is being seen from yesterday to now. As of right now, the latest HREF still brings a 10 to 40% chance of greater than 1" of rainfall tonight into Tuesday morning in the interior west, south central, and east, with the highest chances in the south central and interior west. Should the rainier solutions play out, we may see flooding exacerbated over these areas as US-2 and US-41 continue to have water flowing over them in northern Menominee County. In the low (5% or less) chance that we see severe weather, expect damaging hail followed by severe winds. However, with CAMs bringing convection further south, thinking the un-worked airflow into convection going over the south central tonight will be limited, and thus so should the severe weather threat; the area where the chance for severe weather is greatest is Menominee County. Behind the convection tonight into early Tuesday morning, expect a period of generally drier weather conditions as weak ridging builds in from northern Ontario Tuesday through Wednesday. Hopefully the slightly cooler air from northern Ontario and drier conditions will help to reduce the flooding risk across the area for the rest of this week. That being said, a weak shortwave low moving through the Upper Midwest could bring additional showers and thunderstorms to the U.P. late Tuesday into Tuesday night; whether this shortwave brings precipitation into the U.P. or not will depend on the strength of the ridging from northern Ontario. Another shortwave low moving through the Upper Midwest could bring additional rain showers and thunderstorms to the area around the Thursday time period, although with medium range guidance weakening the strength of this shortwave recently, it may only graze the south as it potentially moves through Lower Michigan; again, it will depend on the strength of the remnant high pressure ridging from northern Ontario. The warmest conditions of the weak move in on Friday as a cold air from northern Canada causes a robust cold front to develop across the central CONUS late this week. With PWATs looking to rapidly increase to around 1 inch in the warm sector via Gulf air ahead of the cold front, the NBM brings up to a 90% chance for temperatures greater than 70 to the western half of the U.P. as dewpoints have a 20 to 50% chance of exceeding 50 degrees (highest chances in the south central and interior west). Combined with intensifying southerly winds, this becomes a recipe for accelerating snowmelt on the snowpack that we have left across the area. Now, where guidance diverges for this week is whether or not a shortwave low lifts through the area before and/or after the arrival of the cold front. Expect higher rain totals if a shortwave rolls through the area before the cold front moves through, as the cold front could bring additional showers and storms across the area into early this weekend. However, if a shortwave low rolls through the area immediately behind the cold front (like the latest deterministic Euro is suggesting), then the western half of the U.P. may be in for a significant wet snowfall event. Therefore, while the confidence is low at this time, we will keep an eye out to see if model guidance continues to converge on a solution. Regardless, there is fairly good agreement that colder temperatures and at the very least light snowfall will be seen over the northwest to west wind snow belts behind the cold front to end the weekend. Expect a transition to more normal temperatures early next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 142 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Fog, dense at times, and low stratus will continue to impact the TAF sites through the forecast period. IWD and CMX will be mainly MVFR this afternoon. Moist air interacting with the snowpack and upslope flow will continue to result in LIFR and VLIFR at SAW. Showers are also expected to overspread the area tonight, an isolated thunderstorm is also possible. Rainfall, in addition to overnight cooling will help to reinforce the low level moisture with widespread IFR and LIFR developing overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 212 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Light winds of generally 20 knots or less continue through the rest of the workweek as shortwave lows move through the area and bring showers and storms to Lake Superior occasionally between tonight and Thursday. Weak high pressure ridging moving through Tuesday through Wednesday may keep the lake dry, but confidence is low at this point as the precipitation chances will be dependent on the strength of the ridging. Nevertheless, here are the time periods where thunderstorm activity is possible over Lake Superior: tonight/early Tuesday, and Thursday. That being said, the chance for rain showers and thunderstorms on Thursday remains low as the shortwave currently looks to lift too far to the south to impact Lake Superior. In addition to the winds and rain/storm chances, we may see fog form over Lake Superior a few times throughout the week; indeed, marine dense fog is looking increasingly likely tonight and may warrant a Marine Dense Fog Advisory in the near future. The main pattern shift for the period looks to come late this week through this weekend as a cold front approaches from the central CONUS. Expect increasing airflow from the Gulf ahead of the cold front to intensify winds from the south and southeast Friday, with over a 30% chance (highest over the open waters of the east according to the NBM) of increasing to gales of at least 34 knots by Friday night before the cold front moves through the lake around the Saturday time period. Behind the cold front, as the strong cold air advection improves mixing of the higher winds aloft to the sfc, expect the winds to become northwesterly as gale chances increase up to 50% late in the day through Saturday night. In addition to the winds, some thunderstorms may be seen ahead of and along the cold front late Friday into Saturday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 338 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 In response to the rainfall and widespread above freezing ambient and dewpoint temperatures through the the rest of the workweek, river rises are expected across Upper Michigan as the remaining snowpack melts away. In addition, the heavy rainfall at times may accelerate the liquid entering into the streams, rivers, and waterways of the UP, especially across the south-central UP where expected rainfall tonight in combination with yesterday heavy rain will exacerbate flooding already felt. River observations and forecasts have increased in measured and expected water level heights, with Moderate Flooding still expected for the Paint River in Crystal Falls the Sturgeon River in Alston; the latest River Forecast for Crystal Falls has the Paint River getting up to a height of 8.2 feet, but with the river observations already exceeding the river forecast, its possible record flooding could be seen (9.8 feet). Elsewhere across Upper Michigan, other rivers have been put under a River Flood Advisory as they are expected to get to bankfull; however, uncertainty still remains on whether or not they will achieve flood stage as it will depend on the speed of snowpack melt and rainfall this week. The rivers are: the Black River near Bessemer, the Chocolay River at Harvey, and the Middle Branch of the Escanaba River at Humboldt. As of this morning, the Black River had over a 30% chance of getting into Minor Flood Stage. Meanwhile, the Chocolay at Harvey and the Middle Branch of the Escanaba River at Humboldt have over a 50% chance of reaching Minor Flood Stage later this week. Eastern Delta County has received enough rain yesterday that the latest observations already show the Sturgeon River near Nahma Junction already at bankfull; thus a River Flood Advisory remains for it until further notice. Outside of these spots, others like the East Branch of the Escanaba River at Gwinn and the Michigamme River at Witch Lake could get to bankfull or more later this week. This morning's HEFS guidance suggests there is a 70% chance that the Escanaba River in Gwinn gets to Minor Flood Stage. Outside of these rivers, there may be additional spots where flooding and bankfull stages could be achieved. In addition, expect the saturated soils over the U.P. to potentially keep the poor drainage and low-lying areas inundated with water. Therefore, if you see any flooding please report it to the NWS and go around it; turn around, don't drown. Aside from the expected rainfall tonight, additional chance for precipitation are expected again later this week into the following weekend. With snowmelt continuing until a cold front passes Friday night, flooding concerns continue until colder air arrives by Saturday. With the warmest weather expected on Friday, expect snowmelt to accelerate as winds pick up from the southeast and south and dewpoints reach up to around 50 once again. Thus, we may see river rises intensify late this week as the rainfall along the cold front combined with the snowmelt could exacerbate river rises and flooding across the Upper Peninsula. However, after the cold front passes early Saturday, expect the snowmelt to become limited if not cease entirely as light lake enhance to lake effect snow moves over the northwest wind snow belts. With cooler and drier weather expected this upcoming weekend, we may see flood concerns start to alleviate by the end of the forecast period. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for MIZ001>007-009>014- 084-085. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TAP AVIATION...NL MARINE...TAP HYDROLOGY...TAP/BW  010 FXUS62 KMHX 131812 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 212 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Issued a Small Craft Advisory for waters around NOBX. Otherwise, no major changes to the forecast with this update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Above to well above normal temperatures will prevail through the entire week with the potential for record breaking temperatures Tuesday through Saturday. 2) Worsening drought and fire weather conditions anticipated over much of the upcoming week, with the next meaningful chance of rain not until Sunday && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Persistent ridging aloft combined with a warm, southwest flow pattern and warm to anomalously warm low-level thicknesses is expected to support above to well above normal temperatures for the entire week. Some locations may reach, or exceed, record highs (please see the CLIMATE section below for additional information). Based on the latest guidance, the warmest days are expected to be Wednesday, Thursday, and Saturday. On those days, highs are expected to top out in the 90s inland, and 70s to near 80 along the coast. For reference, mid-April highs typically average out to be in the upper 60s along the coast and mid 70s inland. Based on the latest forecast, inland highs should solidly reach 10-20 degrees above normal. The forecast is currently higher than MOS guidance, as we are operating under the belief that an anomalous event like this (EFI values approaching 1.00 and SoT near 1) isn't properly represented by MOS guidance. The forecast is also currently higher than the deterministic NBM, as the raw NBM MaxTs are running at the 10-25 percentile. Summertime warmth with spring humidity means it won't feel as hot as it could with summertime humidity. Even so, the heat risk is forecast to reach moderate impact levels this week. This means impacts will be most prevalent for those without adequate cooling or hydration. A break in the warmth looks to be on the horizon as a cold front is now forecast to move through the area on Sunday, with cooler air arriving early next week. KEY MESSAGE 2...Worsening drought conditions are likely through the foreseeable future with no rain in the forecast through Saturday. The forecast area remains in a Severe Drought (D2), with some pockets of Extreme Drought (D3) emerging over the northern NC coastal plain. Precipitation deficits over the last 60 days range from 3-6 inches, which will only increase in the upcoming rain-free week. Growing vegetation and leaf out will only increase the strain on ground water in the coming weeks. While the forecast currently has conditions not meeting criteria for fire danger statements, the very dry conditions will continue to bring an elevated threat for wildfires. It is also worth noting that breezy afternoon/evening winds will be paired with relative humidities in the 30-40% range. Again, this is above Fire Danger Statement criteria, but given the increased sensitivities, it is worth a mention. The NCFS continues a statewide burn ban until further notice. Late in the weekend, guidance is showing a strong signal for a cold front passage (Sunday into Monday). This front carries a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Pred VFR expected through the TAF period with high pressure in place. The NBM probs for fog or stratus late tonight into Tuesday morning remains low, around 10 percent or less. However, if the winds do decouple, cannot rule out shallow fog development late tonight, similar to last night. SW winds will prevail through the TAF Period with gusts around 15-20 kt late morning and afternoon hours. Outlook: Pred VFR conditions expected through the period with a more summertime pattern persisting through the week. Stronger winds likely in the coming days with tightening thermal gradient, most likely felt in the afternoons and evenings. && .MARINE... A regime more typical of summer is expected across area waters this week. Within this flow, there will be a diurnal max in winds each afternoon and evening thanks to a strengthening thermal gradient. During this time, occasional gusts to 25kt will be possible, especially for waters near NOBX. A short fused small craft advisory has been issued until 3Z Tue for the coastal waters north of Oregon Inlet and the Croatan/Roanoke Sounds as obs this afternoon have started gusting to the low/mid 20 knot range, with further intensification expected into the evening. A similar scenario is possible each day this week, with brief small craft conditions in the vicinity of NOBX. Seas of 3-5 ft will be common through much of the upcoming week for the ENC coastal waters. Outlook: The southwest flow pattern is expected to last into Saturday. On Sunday, a cold front is forecast to move through with a wind shift and the potential for scattered thunderstorms. && .CLIMATE... Record High temps for 4/14 (Tuesday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 89/1948 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 80/1994 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 93/1922 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 80/1996 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 99/1930 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 88/1977 (NCA ASOS) Record High temps for 4/15 (Wednesday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 94/1972 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 84/1922 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 96/1922 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 80/1964 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 92/1941 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 93/2006 (NCA ASOS) Record High temps for 4/16 (Thursday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 92/1972 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 78/1994 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 92/1972 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 82/2006 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 92/2006 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 91/1972 (NCA ASOS) Record High temps for 4/17 (Friday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 91/1976 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 83/2012 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 92/1972 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 82/1976 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 91/1972 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 91/2006 (NCA ASOS) && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RM/RJ AVIATION...SK MARINE...RM/RJ  231 FXAK67 PAJK 131812 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 1012 AM AKDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .UPDATE.../Update to include 18z TAF issuance/... && .SYNOPSIS... Key Messages: - A front moving over the panhandle will continue bringing rain and snow showers through the day Monday. - Tuesday is expected to see a clearing from north to south, with increased chances of sun and warmer temperatures. && .SHORT TERM...The large scale upper level trough over the northern gulf will continue to support an elongated surface low to start the week. While the upper level circulation extends northward into the Yukon Territory seen clearly via satellite imagery, the surface low continues to spin in the NE gulf in the vicinity of the Fairweather Grounds. Steering flow aloft will eventually pull the surface flow southward as it weakens, with the gradient over the panhandle also gradually diminishing late Monday before being replaced by offshore flow. In terms of precipitation, amounts are likely to be highly variable due to the transition to convective showers behind the primary front that pushed in overnight Sunday into Monday morning. Colder air brought down from western Alaska will continue to wrap around the low Monday, further increasing lapse rates and enhancing shower potential through the day. Heavier showers may allow for more snow to mix in with rain at the surface for the central and northern panhandle and cannot be ruled out even for outer coastal communities on PoW. However warming from daytime heating and ground temperatures are expected to limit any snow accumulations, with the exception of higher portions of the Haines and Klondike Highways which are expected to see light accumulations. The primary hazard from these showers is expected to be visibility restrictions in heavier showers due to snow mixing in. Confidence remains low for the potential for lightning strikes with these convective showers, however the showers will be monitored closely through the day. .LONG TERM...The low complex that is dominating the weather pattern in the short term is expected to move SE and be over the southern panhandle by mid week. By late Tuesday/early Wednesday the low will begin to weaken and continue drifting south. As this occurs the northern half of the panhandle as well as the northeast Gulf Coast will get a break from precipitation starting later Tuesday. The southern portions of the area are expected to remain in a showery regime until later Wednesday. With overnight temperatures being in the mid to upper 20s precipitation during the overnight/morning hours could be a rain/snow mix with snow accumulations being minimal if at all. As this low moves out of the area a ridge of high pressure is expected to move over the Gulf of Alaska. Models are well aligned with the amplitude and placement of the ridge remaining over the southern portion of the gulf during the later half of the week. This will result in a weak trough setting up along the North and Eastern Gulf Coast, yielding showery conditions for the area. None of the showers are expected to be particularly impactful. && .AVIATION.../through 18z Tuesday/...Varied flight conditions continue through Monday as rain/snow showers filter through the panhandle. During the daytime hours, showers will continue to drop conditions to MVFR/IFR with CIGs around 1500 ft as they move through. Restricted VIS and low few/scattered CIGs below 1000 ft are expected with heavier showers, and bigger cells are cold enough for precipitation to be predominantly snow which will bring VIS down below 2 SM at times. In between showers, conditions will jump back up to VFR with broken CIGs and blue skies peaking through. Heavier showers may bring increased wind speeds with gusts up to 20 to 25 kts as they pass over. Larger cells may be tall enough to produce lightning, particularly in the southern panhandle, though only a few strikes have been observed within the past few hours. Looking ahead, the panhandle can be generally split up into two sections. Skies in the northern and parts of the central panhandle are expected to steadily clear out overnight as the low offshore starts to shift south. As winds die down and remaining CIGs begin to lift and thin out late Monday night, the potential for fog development through much of these TAFs sites increases. Currently expecting a majority of sites that experience this clearing to develop at least a low fog bank through early Tuesday morning, with potential for dense fog conditions from 12 to 18z for sites such as PAYA, PAGS, and PAJN. For the southern panhandle, showers are expected to continue into Tuesday morning with on/off MVFR to VFR conditions similar to Monday morning. By the very end of the period, showers should be tapering off with clearing skies spreading south as the low continues to dip southward. && .MARINE... Outside Waters: A low in the northern gulf that is currently generating fresh to strong westerly to southwesterly breezes for the eastern gulf will gradually shift south and weaken through Monday night. Long, wide fetches with consistent westerly winds look to build seas from 5 ft up to 10-13 ft at 9 to 10 seconds before diminishing slowly Monday night. Inside Waters: Winds have gradually picked up through the overnight hours as a front associated with the northern gulf low continues to work its way over the panhandle. As of this forecast discussion, winds up to strong breeze (22 to 27 kt) are expected to last through the early morning in both Lynn Canal and Stephens Passage as the front stalls in the far northern panhandle and the gradient tightens. Similar to the outside waters, expecting to see fresh to strong south to southwesterly breezes for Frederick Sound, Sumner Strait, Southern Chatham Strait, and SW-NE channels in Clarence such as Behm Canal. As the low shifts southward, expecting to see a transition of winds from south/southwesterly to more southeasterly. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-641>644-651-661>664-671-672. && $$ SHORT TERM...STJ LONG TERM...Butwin AVIATION...ZTK MARINE...STJ Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau  139 FXUS61 KAKQ 131813 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 213 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the forecast at this time. Updated aviation discussion for 18z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Well above-normal temperatures this week, with record to near- record temperatures possible by midweek. 2) Continued dry with fire weather concerns expected for much of the week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 205 PM EDT Monday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Well above-normal temperatures this week, with record to near- record temperatures possible by midweek. Surface high offshore has settled offshore of the northeast coast, and will build south into the western Atlantic through midweek. The resulting persistent return flow will lock in a very warm, dry SSW flow regime for much of the week ahead. This Bermuda High set-up, more typical of early to mid summer, will allow for temperatures to increase to well above normal through the next several days. Highs tomorrow climb into the upper 80s to near 90F tomorrow, with low 90s (to isolated mid 90s) Wednesday into the upcoming weekend. Slightly cooler upper 80s across the Eastern Shore and near the coast through the week. These temperatures are likely to challenge record high temperatures across the area, with the current records at our long-term climate sites noted in the climate section below. With the strong high firmly in place across the area through at least the end of the week, any fronts approaching the region will wash out before reaching our area. Global model ensembles continue to suggest that a stronger front drops across the area late in the upcoming weekend, with at least a slight chance of rain in its wake. Meanwhile, building east coast trough will finally serve to break the heat ridge early next week. KEY MESSAGE 2...Continued dry with fire weather concerns expected for much of the week. With high pressure dominating our weather pattern, and no appreciable precipitation expected through the end of the week, fire weather concerns will remain an issue to monitor for much of the week ahead. After collaboration with state forestry officials and surrounding weather offices, will not be issuing any further Increased Fire Statements at this time. While breezy return flow continues tomorrow, winds/gusts are not quite as high tomorrow. That said, RH values are, and will continue to be dry, averaging 25-30% inland, 30-35% closer to the coast. Overall though, fire wx conditions remain a bit above critical fire wx thresholds tomorrow through midweek. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 210 PM EDT Monday... VFR conditions will continue through tonight, with generally only upper-level clouds expected. Breezy SW flow continues across coastal terminals this afternoon, averaging ~15-18kt with gusts to 20-25kt, with occasional gusts to ~30 kts possible. Winds gradually diminish this evening, relaxing to ~8-10kt overnight/early Tuesday. LLWS will once again be a concern this evening at KSBY, in association with a lingering LLJ. Cross wind concerns ease considerably at KSBY after 06z/Tuesday. Becoming gusty again late tomorrow morning, but much less so than today, with SSW winds remaining around 10 kt, gusting to ~15-20kt. Outlook: VFR and dry conditions are expected to prevail Tuesday night through Saturday. SSW winds prevail throughout the forecast period, as high pressure settles over the western Atlantic. && .MARINE... As of 245 AM EDT Monday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Chesapeake Bay this evening into tonight and for the northern coastal waters late tonight through Monday. - Generally sub-SCA conditions prevail Tuesday through next week outside of daily, brief surges in the evenings. High pressure is centered offshore early this morning as a weak system tracks well to our north. Southerly winds have increased to 15-20 kt (highest north) with seas of 3-4 ft (perhaps up to 5 ft north but unfortunately buoy 44009 and 44089 aren't reporting attm). SCAs remain in effect for the northern coastal waters and bay north of New Pt Comfort for the ongoing winds. Winds become SW and diminish to ~15 kt by mid morning, but will likely become gusty near the land/water interface and on the rivers during the late morning- afternoon due to daytime mixing over adjacent land areas. Gusts to 20-25 kt are possible for a few hours on the rivers and nearshore on the lower bay with the southwesterly wind direction (peak winds will likely occur between 11 AM-4 PM). Therefore, have issued new SCAs for the rivers and lower bay from 10 AM-6 PM today. The SCAs continue for the northern coastal waters through this evening, but it looks quite marginal with seas only reaching 5 ft closer to 20 nm offshore. SW winds diminish to 10-15 kt tonight. Generally sub-SCA conditions are expected from Tue through the end of the week as a large ridge aloft continues to build across the eastern CONUS. However, occasional periods of elevated winds are possible (mainly in the evenings) through the week. As such, additional marginal SCAs cannot be ruled out. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temps for 4/13 - 4/16 Record Record Record Record High/Year High/Year High/Year High/Year Location 4/13 4/14 4/15 4/16 -------- ---- ----- ------ ------ Richmond 91 (1977) 90 (1977) 92 (1941) 93 (1976) Norfolk 88 (1977) 90 (1941) 90 (2024) 91 (1976) Salisbury 87 (2023) 87 (1941) 87 (1941) 89 (1976) Eliz. City 90 (1948) 90 (1941) 91 (1941) 90 (1941) Record High Min Temps for 4/13 - 4/16 Record Record Record Record High High High High Min T/Year Min T/Year Min T/Year Min T/Year Location 4/13 4/14 4/15 4/16 -------- ---- ----- ------ ------ Richmond 64 (1994) 65 (1899) 64 (2018) 64 (1912) Norfolk 65 (1994) 68 (2019) 68 (1941) 66 (2017) Salisbury 62 (2019) 65 (1945) 64 (2002) 63 (2017) Eliz. City 67 (2019) 68 (2019) 68 (1974) 68 (1994) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER until 6 PM EDT this evening for VAZ048- 060>062-064>069-075-076-079>083-087-088-509>522. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ630>632-634>638. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650-652-654. && $$ DISCUSSION...MAM/NB AVIATION...MAM/NB MARINE...ERI/RMM CLIMATE...MAM  905 FXUS63 KDDC 131813 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 113 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread critical fire weather conditions today and Tuesday ahead of the first storm system. All 27 counties of NWS DDC area will remain in Red Flag Warning today and Fire Weather Watch (to be upgraded to Red Flag Warning) Tuesday. - Additional critical fire weather concerns ahead of the second late week storm system, especially west of Highway 283 where lowest relative humidity will remain. - Severe weather risk across eastern half of NWS Dodge City area Friday ahead of the second, larger and stronger storm system. SPC 15% Probabilistic Outlook for severe storms Friday east of a Coldwater to Larned line. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 104 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Very warm and dry weather will continue out ahead of a large upper level trough centered over California and Nevada late this morning. Broad southwesterly flow through the depth of the troposphere will become most pronounced Tuesday afternoon when the center of the mid level trough axis moves across Colorado, inducing a lower tropospheric low across northwestern Kansas. This will keep the strongest height gradient 850mb through 700mb across much of Kansas into Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Deep mixing through 3km AGL by mid to late afternoon will support fairly frequent southwest wind gusts 35 to 40 knots, so we have continued to favor 75th percentile winds off the NBM for much of our southwest Kansas region. The same goes for afternoon temperatures, favoring 75th percentile given continued very dry condition, resulting in highs Tuesday upper 80s to around 90F across the eastern half of the DDC CWA. On Wednesday, we will see a break in strong winds in between storm systems, but the next incoming storm system will be larger in scope and a bit stronger, so we will begin seeing surface response to the next storm as early as midday Thursday as the leeside trough redevelop and south winds increase again. As the 850mb and 700mb height gradient increases, deep southwesterly winds will increase, and we will see these mix down to the surface in stronger gusts again late in the afternoon, especially across far southwest Kansas. The downslope southwesterlies will be a warm wind, so highs well into the mid 80s are forecast with even some upper 80s/near 90 in the typically hot locations such as the Red Hills. Through all this time today through Thursday, the surface dryline will remain east across south central Kansas into western Oklahoma, but given just enough uncertainty in county-level detail of dryline position, we will keep some small POPs across the Red Hills region for thunderstorms late Tuesday/Tuesday Night until the first storm system fully clears our region. The dryline will push east and eventually become quite diffuse by Thursday as the MSLP pattern undergoes a readjustment in between storms. The dryline is then expected to reform farther west on Friday as the next larger storm takes shape over the Rockies. The reshaped dryline will sharpen up as convergence increases due to deepening surface low by Friday afternoon, setting the stage for a fairly classic looking severe weather episode across the Central Plains, including eastern portions of the DDC CWA. The latest SPC Convective Outlook for Friday includes a 15% outlook for our eastern areas, east of roughly Coldwater to Larned line, for all severe weather risks including possibility of tornadoes. After Friday evening severe weather risk shifts east of southwest and south central Kansas, a strong cold front will sweep south some time Friday Night, ushering in much cooler air. A stable/quiet weekend will follow, albeit windy and chilly Saturday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1115 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Very warm and dry conditions will continue on southwest winds this TAF period. Strongest winds this afternoon will be mid to late afternoon/early evening with sustained winds 18 to 23 knots, gusting around 30 knots at times. Widespread VFR flight category will continue through mid-week given absence of low stratus cloud development and/or fog in this warm and dry pattern. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090. && $$ DISCUSSION...Umscheid AVIATION...Umscheid  513 FXUS65 KSLC 131813 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 1213 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Accumulating snow will continue to impact the higher terrain of central and southern Utah through Tuesday morning. - Freezing conditions will occur across eastern Box Elder County and several central and southern valley locations tonight and again Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. - A strong cold front will bring snow to valley floors across northern and central Utah Thursday evening into Friday morning. Accumulating snow will occur across most locations north of about I-70 and may impact the Friday morning commute. - Very cold temperatures in the wake of this front will bring freezing conditions to most Utah valleys excluding lower Washington County and the communities along the Virgin River near Zion National Park Thursday night into Friday morning and again Friday night into Saturday morning. && .DISCUSSION...An upper level low near LA will continue to shift eastward through the day. This low will be centered near the St. George area by evening and then continue to eject into the central Rockies through the day Tuesday. A band of heavier snow (with rates in excess of 1 inch per hour) on the northwest quadrant of this upper level low will impact the southern mountains in particular after 9 PM tonight through at least dawn Tuesday. Snow will shift toward a more showery mode later Tuesday morning and continue through at least the first part of Tuesday afternoon. Winter weather advisories continue through 3 PM Tuesday and are on track. No additional advisories are needed at this time. In the wake of this system, multiple valleys will see freezing temperatures tonight including eastern Box Elder County, southwest Utah, the Sanpete and Sevier Valleys, and eastern Juab and Millard Counties tonight. With the exception of eastern Box Elder County, the remainder of the areas will see even colder temperatures Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, with the addition of west central Utah, Castle Country, the San Rafael Swell, and western Canyonlands. Freezing Warnings and Watches are in effect for these locations (Warnings for areas with freezes tonight, Watches for areas that will only freeze Tuesday night). A strong, cold upper level trough will shift south and east into the interior West Thursday. A strong cold front will cross northern Utah Thursday, bringing snow levels to valley floors. The current earliest/latest arrival of snow levels to valley floor is 2 PM Thursday to 8 PM Thursday. Expect any rain to quickly change to snow in the wake of this cold front across northern Utah. The best chance for snow to accumulate on area roads will be during the overnight hours Thursday night into early Friday morning. There is an increasing potential accumulating snow will impact the Friday morning commute across the Wasatch Front. With trees in nearly all northern valleys with nearly full to full leaf canopies, this may be a higher impact at lower snowfall rates. For now, the 25th/75th percentile snow totals range from 6 to 12 inches for the northern mountains, 1 to 3 inches for the Wasatch Front valley floor, locally up to 6 inches benches, with 2 to 6 inches for the Wasatch Back. Another wildcard is whether there will be lake enhanced snowfall from the GSL. A lot of details to become more clear as this storm moves from the long term to the near term. && .AVIATION...KSLC...The SLC terminal will see VFR conditions through the evening. Southerly winds are expected to shift to the northwest between 19Z and 20Z, most likely remaining out of that direction tonight into tomorrow. There is a 30 percent chance of a period of light and variable winds overnight, and a 20 percent chance of gusty and erratic winds this afternoon into the early evening due to showers south of the terminal. .REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Southwest Wyoming and the northern third of Utah are expected to see VFR conditions through the evening, with a low chance of gusty winds from showers to south impacting wind directions. Across central and southern Utah, periods of valley rain and mountain snow will result in areas of mountain obscuration as well as IFR conditions in the areas of snow through Tuesday morning. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Tuesday for UTZ103-116-118-119-122. Freeze Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning for UTZ114-115-120-121-130. Freeze Warning from 9 PM Tuesday to 9 AM MDT Wednesday for UTZ116-118-119-122. Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM MDT Tuesday for UTZ117-125. WY...None. && $$ Kruse/Traphagan For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity  286 FXUS65 KRIW 131813 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 1213 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Windy conditions, with gusts between 20 and 40 mph, are expected through sunset tonight. Gusty winds combined with low humidity will result in elevated to critical fire weather conditions across central and southern Wyoming. - Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible (30-60%) this afternoon and evening across western and northern Wyoming. A strong shower or thunderstorm could produce gusty 20 to 30 mph winds. - A cold weather system is forecast to bring widespread precipitation late Wednesday through Friday, with most locations seeing measurable snowfall by Friday. - A hard freeze (28 degrees or colder) is looking likely (80% + chances) across the area Thursday night and especially Friday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 327 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 It is often said that Wyoming can experience many different seasons in a week. This is especially so during the transition time, and especially during the Spring as the battle between warm air from the south and cold air to the north holding on for dear life. We currently have another in the series of shortwaves rotating around an upper level low now moving into California. It is bringing some showers, mainly to western Wyoming. And some of this is in the form of snow, including at the Jackson Hole airport, where 700 millibar temperatures falling to around minus 4 have dropped snow levels to around 6500 feet. The steadiest precipitation should be over shortly after sunrise, but the chance of showers will linger through the day. Otherwise, things looks somewhat similar to yesterday, with a scattering of showers across the area with a few thunderstorms thrown in. Once again, the best coverage will be in western Wyoming with areas East of the Divide dry most of the day. The chance for strong storms looks less through, with cooler temperatures and less instability. And we have another concern, fire weather. The approaching shortwave will bring gusty to strong wind to portions of the area, mainly in the southwestern Wind Corridor from east of Rock Springs through Natrona County. There is a brief period of 700 millibar wind rising to 50 knots around 9 am in this vicinity. Ensemble guidance also shows a greater than 1 out 2 chance of wind gusts past 50 mph as well. However, at this point, critical fire weather looks to be the greater impact. Temperatures are running cooler than on Sunday. However, with a greater than 1 in 2 chance of relative humidity falling below 15 percent for three hours, we have decided to go with a Red Flag Warning for Natrona County. Elsewhere, relative humidity does not look to reach critical levels. Elevated fire weather is certainly a possibility though. Tuesday still looks to be a driest day across the area. Reasoning is the same as yesterday with the upper level low passing south of the area over Colorado. Models have come into better agreement with keeping the best forcing and moisture south of the area. The chance of greater than a tenth of an inch or precipitation is less than 1 out of 4 except in far southern Sweetwater County and the higher elevations of the northwest. Most areas should have a decent day with somewhat above normal temperatures and much less wind. Attention then turns to the next, stronger system moving in for the end of the week. An upper level low will move onshore in British Columbia on Wednesday and move toward Wyoming Thursday, bring a cold front and a decent amount of moisture. There is somewhat better agreement in regards to timing. A few showers may occur Wednesday afternoon, but any substantial precipitation should hold off until after sunset Wednesday. It will bring some gusty to strong wind though Wednesday into Thursday, following the usual progression of pre frontal Muddy Gap to Casper on Wednesday and Wednesday night pre frontal and transitioning to northwest / cold advection areas on Thursday and Thursday night like Buffalo, the Bighorn Basin and Wind River Basin on Thursday and Thursday night. Many locations have a greater than 1 in 2 chance of wind gusts past 45 mph during this time. However, of greater interest though is what will happen with something we desperately need, precipitation. This system is a fairly wet one, with precipitable waters as much as 150 percent of climatological normals. However, the exact track of the low is still in question as well as some mesoscale features with it. As a result, confidence remains rather low on the resultant placement of the heaviest precipitation and any potential amounts. So, this is when we dive into the wondrous realm of probabilistic and ensemble forecasting. And the National Blend of Models has good news in this regard, with a large majority of the area having a greater than 1 in 2 chance of greater than a quarter of an inch of precipitation from Wednesday night through Friday night. And this will be a cold system following the frontal passage, with snow levels falling to the basin floors Thursday evening. Most areas have at least a 1 in 2 chance of greater than an inch of snow over a similar period. Many of the northerly upslope areas, like Lander, the southern Big Horn Basin and Casper, have a greater than 1 in 2 chance of 4 inches or more. However, this is far from certain. Also, with recent warm temperatures and warm ground, any predicted amounts will likely not be the amount on peoples yards as some will likely melt initially. At this point, the most impactful time would be Thursday night into Friday morning with gradually improving conditions Friday afternoon. This is the best chance for decent moisture we have had in quite a while though. And then we move into the next question, how cold will it get? Thursday night will likely drop into the 20s, but snow and possible travel problems will likely be of greater concern during this time frame. The timeframe we are looking at is Friday night for the coldest temperatures. There are a couple of concerns though. One, the models are split on if it can clear. If it remains cloudy, temperatures may stay a bit warmer. Also, snow cover will be a big factor. If snow is lighter then expected and if the strong April sun can melt it off Friday, it might not get as cold. As we head to the ensemble guidance again, much of the area has at least a 1 in 2 chance of low temperatures falling below 20 degrees. Now, no one should be planting gardens or crops this early in Wyoming, long time residents know this. The main concern is with budding trees, flowers as well as sprinkler systems that may freeze. It is still a long way off, but we will have to watch it. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1213 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are again expected today as the area sits just downstream of an upper low to the west. This activity will not be as widespread, however, most focused west of the Divide. KJAC is most favored to see at least brief precipitation impacts this afternoon (TEMPO in place), followed by KBPI and KPNA (PROB30). Wind will be more widespread through the afternoon, with gusts of 20 to 30 mph at most terminals before sunset. Additionally, any shower or thunderstorm could produce outflow wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph. Focus then shifts to KJAC after sunset as temperatures drop and rain showers become snow. This should lead to a period of MVFR ceilings through around 05Z before snow ends. KJAC should then hold on to broken low VFR ceilings through late morning before clouds decrease. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 327 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A combination of humidity falling below 15 percent, a southwest wind gusting over 50 mph and dry fuels will bring critical fire weather to Natrona County this afternoon. Elsewhere, relative humidity should not reach critical levels. However, gusty wind and humidity falling to 20 percent may bring elevated fire weather this afternoon. Conditions should improve on Tuesday as wind decreases and relative humidity moves somewhat higher. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for WYZ280. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hattings AVIATION...Myers FIRE WEATHER...Hattings  566 FXUS61 KBGM 131813 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 213 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes from the previous forecast. A colder pattern is possible late this weekend. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Threat for strong to severe thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday, with isolated hail and strong wind gusts possible along with heavy rain. 2) The warm pattern through the week will break down this weekend and be replaced by much colder air late in the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Main area of concern is centered around the threat for strong to possibly severe thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday. A large scale synoptic pattern is setting up today and will persist into at least the middle of the week. This pattern is largely defined by a building ridge over the southeast US. The air mass within this dome of high pressure will be increasingly warm and humid, and set the stage for a couple days (at least) of thunderstorms. A large plume of deep moisture from the southern MS Valley will advect northward through the Great Lakes and into the Northeast beginning tonight. A series of weak upper level short waves and co-located surface lows will ride east across the region. The first weak one today has produced only light rain across the region, but the second one on Tuesday will be slightly more potent and combine with warmer temperatures and higher humidity. There will likely be a number of conditional elements needed to generate severe storms on Tuesday. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty with respect to the timing of the convection with a number of members indicating a late morning/early afternoon round followed by a later afternoon round of storms. If this solution does develop, the threat of severe storms will highly depend on how quickly the morning convection can exit and allow the boundary layer to destabilize again. There are also some solutions that bring the bulk of the convection well to our north and leave central NY and ne PA with minimal storms. The third solution, holds all of the convection off until later in the day and produces the most intense storms between 5-9 PM. The environment and amount of instability will clearly depend on how much clearing we can realize through the afternoon. There is a consensus among the guidance of anywhere from 500-1500 J/kg of ML CAPE and around 30-40 kt of 0-6km shear. Mid level lapse rates appear favorable, around 6.5 to 7 degC/km...and supportive of deep convection and the threat of some hail. The presence of deep moisture may also preclude the threat of microbursts and localized damaging winds. The one limiting factor with these storms will be the lack of strong dynamical forcing. The upper short wave is very weak and the lack of amplification could limit the amount of forcing for ascent. Some of the convection could be leftover from western Great Lakes convection, and we will need to monitor the threat for any leftover MCS or MCV formation. Storms should diminish in intensity and coverage after sunset and leave just lingering clouds or light rain around into the overnight. The next wave begins to move in earlier on Wednesday with the primary sfc front/trough laying east-west across the region through the day. This will allow for showers and storms to develop along this boundary most of the day on and off. The presence of this nearly stationary boundary combined with an axis of deep moisture (PWs around 1 to 1.5") could lead to a threat of heavy rain and training convection which may lead to some localized flooding issue. The threat for severe storms on Wed looks on the low side given the lower amount of instability, but with the presence of the boundary, the low level shear could be heightened, so this will need to be watched. KEY MESSAGE 2... The large scale pattern is the main concern later in the week, similar to the message above. An upper trough will dig into the central US by Thursday, which will cause the ridge to the east to amplify and push warmer, more humid air into central NY and ne PA Thursday. High temperatures on Wed and Thu will top out in the 70s and 80s...with dew points in the 60s. More scattered showers and storms are expected Thursday ahead of the approaching upper trough that will usher in slightly cooler and drier air by Friday as temperatures drop into the 60s and 70s before climbing back into the mid to upper 70s on Saturday. The pattern will really shift to a colder one starting late in the weekend. An anomalously cold trough is expected to dig into the northern Plains late Sat and rotate to the east across the Northeast US late Sunday into early next week. This system will usher in very colder temperatures, with highs in the 40s and lows in the 30s. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions this afternoon will slowly drop to MVFR or fuel alternate required after 00Z this evening with persistent restrictions through 12-14Z Tuesday. Conditions will improve to VFR through the late morning hours. Light rain showers are expected to move out of the area this afternoon as a pocket of drier air advances in from the west. The next round of rain is expected to arrive in a scattered nature after 15Z Tue. Winds today will become westerly and breezy with peak gusts of 25 to 30 kts. Winds diminish this evening and then increase again after 16Z Tue out of the south/southwest. Outlook: Tuesday afternoon through Thursday...Restrictions possible from showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Friday...Mainly VFR; low chance for lingering showers and restrictions. Saturday...Additional restrictions look to arrive along with showers and storms late in the day Saturday. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BJT AVIATION...BJT  252 FXUS63 KEAX 131813 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 113 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Active weather pattern continues with multiple chances for strong to severe thunderstorms. - Best chance for strong to severe storms Tuesday evening/night, Wednesday afternoon/evening, and Friday afternoon/evening. * Generally seasonally warm and humid through the work week. Cooler and drier (less humid) into the weekend. - Highs upper 70s to 80s through Friday, then mid-50s to 60s into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 403 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 SW large scale flow/pattern is well established through the central CONUS as a western trough continues to down the California coast and toward the SW CONUS. Closer to the immediate area surface pressure continues to build and glide off the Colorado Front Range in response to shortwave moving through the mean flow. This has worked to increase surface/near surface flow locally (gusting into 20s kts currently), and effectively surging additional WAA/moisture up into and through the Southern and Central Plains. While potent ~19-20 deg C cap/EML is being advected into the area currently, a few elevated showers/general thunderstorms will be possible this morning on the nose of a 40-50+kt LLJ and steep lapse rates above the cap/EML. This activity/potential has been seen on GOES Nighttime Microphysics products (convective clouds above the stratus) and most recently with budding returns on local WSR-88D. Nothing to see here given the highly elevated nature and limited instability with which to work with. A few flashes of lightning and rumbles of thunder. This activity drifts NE through the morning, with some potential uptick in coverage as it exits the forecast area into SE Iowa and far NE Missouri. For the remainder of the day, if you just looked at the parameter space there would be concern for some robust convection. Fortunately though, the well advertised strong capping/EML will be in place. There are some indications the cap weakens and in some cases nearly erodes by around 00z, but without a clear mechanism for lift it remains unlikely for any surface based convection to be achieved. Through the day, it is possible to see a few elevated showers with depictions of near dry adiabatic lapse rates atop the cap/EML and ongoing WAA/moisture advection through at least the lower levels. In the unlikely event that something surface based is able to be achieved (strong enough differential heating if prolonged pockets of sunshine are achieved? sun angle too low?), environment will would be supportive of organized and robust convection. Through the day, conditions too will be quite windy and have upped winds over baseline NBM, coming more in line with recent CAM runs/guidance. Current expectation for sustained winds 15-20+ mph and gusts 25-35 mph. Into the overnight surface winds remain up, and a few elevated showers remain possible as LLJ picks up. Instead, Tuesday continues to be the better of the immediate days for strong to severe potential over the area. As the larger SW Conus trough continues to work into the Intermountain West, it will eject another shortwave into the flow and trigger another round of Lee Cyclogenesis. This surface low will move off the Front Range further south than the Monday iteration, building into/tracking over C/NE Kansas. While EML will initially be of similar strength/magnitude, ongoing WAA and typical diurnal mixing will help yield a notably weaker CAP. Surface temps to be a handful degrees warmer than Monday, into the mid 80s. Parameter space wise, hi-res/CAM guidance in fair agreement on >1500-2000 J/kg SB/MLCAPE and >35-40 kts deep shear. Now, will we be able to break the CAP locally and achieve discrete convection... that is the question. There remains a lack of substantial lift locally. And while the dry line moves toward eastern Kansas, guidance is not excited about initiation immediately to our west. Instead,CAM runs remain quite consistent in the CAP breaking over N Oklahoma and S Kansas by around mid-afternoon and that activity moving NE with the mean flow. Should this solution prevail, our severe threat most likely revolves around a wind and hail threat. The northward extent of activity may also be dependent on the evolution of the surface low and how far E/NE the drier air is able to move, and that is of course depicted near the KC Metro in some cases. So we will continue to keep an eye on that. The Slight Risk within the new SPC Day 2 Outlook is very reasonable given the parameter space and the uncertainties at hand. Activity may continue into overnight Tuesday into Wednesday with persistent strong WAA/moisture advection and increasing LLJ, but with more limited severe potential. The strong to severe potential Wednesday hinges largely on how the atmosphere is or is not able to recover/destabilize as overnight activity and cloud cover may/likely continue into the daytime Wednesday. The most likely area of concern may be back near/along the approaching dry line/front and as the western CONUS trough moves out into the Plains and provides more robust lift and deep shear. The SPC Day 3 Slight over much of the area too is reasonable. Quieter, but still warm, conditions prevail Thursday as trough departs eastward and mid-upper ridging moves in behind. But, the hits keep on rolling though as the overall active pattern continues as storms return Friday. Whether it be activity lifting out of the Southern Plains or along/ahead of an approaching cold front. Quick peek at conditions does suggest another at least semi-favorable parameter space and is reflected in the SPC Day 5 15% risk. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1242 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Broken mid level clouds are lingering at the KC metro terminals, but these should be scattering out shortly, with VFR conditions likely to continue through the period. Elevated south southwesterly winds should continue through the period, with gusts up to 30 knots through this afternoon and gusts up to 23 to 27 knots through the overnight and into Tuesday morning. A low level jet is expected to develop around 4z tonight, continuing through around 11z Tuesday morning, with 2000 foot winds up to 50 knots, which may present low level wind shear issues for smaller aircraft. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Curtis AVIATION...BMW  903 FXUS61 KCLE 131816 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 216 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The bulk of the forecast remains unchanged regarding the upcoming systems. It is worth noting that confidence in any severe potential remains low, but is expected to increase with future model runs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Multiple rounds of convection possible in the next 48 hours, but there remains a high level uncertainty in the potential across the area. 2) A strong low pressure system is expected to impact the area late week into the weekend. 3) Above average temperatures are expected to persist through Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A boundary slowly sagging south today should stall just north of the area. Multiple low pressure system are expected to travel along this boundary through Thursday, resulting in multiple chances for precipitation and thunderstorms. There are two notable periods of potential strong to severe storms in the next 48 hours, but there remains little confidence in the evolution of either system. The first push of storms is expected late tonight into Tuesday morning as decaying convection from the northern Great Lakes moves into the area. Given the timing, limited instability will be present, however a strong LLJ of 35-45 knots will assist in maintaining some storms. Cannot rule out a couple strong to severe thunderstorms, but highest confidence in this occurring would be across the northwestern portion of the area. Primary threat will be wind, although hail is not out of the question. Right now, SPC highlights this potential over the area with a D1 Marginal Risk. The tricky part of this forecast is figuring out how quickly this morning convection pushes east and allows the atmosphere to rebound ahead of the next system. Some hi-res guidance, including the HRRR, suggest that there will be two lines of convection in the morning which would result in storms lingering much longer. On the flip side, models such as the ARW having convection moving east of the area by late morning. If the HRRR is correct, thunderstorms will likely still occur overnight but much of the severe potential will remain limited. If the ARW is correct, then strong to severe thunderstorms across the area is possible late Tuesday evening into the overnight hours. With convection departing earlier in the day, ample WAA and deep layer moisture will be able to surge across the area, enhance by daytime heating and increasing instability. This should provide a decent environment for strong to severe storms to occur with the primary concern being strong to damaging winds. The only common thing amongst the spread in models is that the convection that does push into the area will likely be decaying remnants of severe weather expected across the upper Midwest tomorrow. SPC currently has a D2 Slight Risk to highlight this potential threat. Stay tuned for the latest forecast as this system continues to evolve and models hopefully get into a better agreement in handling what will happen in the next 48 hours. KEY MESSAGE 2... A deepening upper level trough is expected to push south across the central CONUS on Friday into the weekend, moving a strongest low pressure system and associated boundaries through the area. This system may once again pose a severe weather risk, although confidence is fairly low this far out. There is high confidence that areawide showers will occur this weekend as a strong cold front moves east. On the backside of that boundary, temperatures will once again dip, although this time to near normal, with highs falling into the 50s by Sunday. KEY MESSAGE 3... Temperatures are expected to remain above normal for the bulk of this week with highs consistently in the 70s, possibly touching 80 at times. Overnight lows will remain mild with temperatures only falling into the 60s. CPC has highlighted the area in a potential for prolonged above average temperatures for the next two week. It is worth noting that after the cold front Saturday, temperatures will briefly fall back to near normal (in the 50s) before once again increasing next week. && .AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/... Low-end VFR is observed across the majority of the terminals with pockets of MVFR ceilings occurring occasionally. Expect to remain VFR through tonight and tomorrow morning ahead of showers/thunderstorms. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty in the spatial extent of the thunderstorms tonight so continued the PROB30 lines. Timing wise, the potential has remain consistent, starting at 01Z for the western sites and then 06Z for the eastern sites. Non-VFR visibility and ceilings will be possible in thunderstorms if they move over stations. Early morning tomorrow, non-VFR ceilings are probable across the region and should persist through the end of the TAF period, though KCLE will rise to VFR given the longer period. There is potential for another round of showers/thunderstorms mid- morning tomorrow, though confidence again is low in the timing and spatial extent so opted to add a PROB30 for those as well. Winds will be gusting up to 25 knots out of the southwest through around 00Z tonight before subsiding. Overnight winds will be sustained around 10-12 knots then begin gusting again in the morning up to 20-25 knots. Little directional change is anticipated, though winds could vary within showers/thunderstorms. Outlook...Occasional non-VFR conditions are expected in periodic showers and thunderstorms through Thursday. && .MARINE... Southwest winds remain elevated at 20-25 knots early this morning before wind speeds diminish from west to east through this afternoon. Small Craft Advisory for the western basin will expire at 10 AM this morning with the remainder of the lake expiring at 4 PM this afternoon. Southerly to southwesterly winds 12-18 knots will remain in place through the end of the week as multiple systems move across the region. Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances will be present through Thursday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LEZ146>149. && $$ DISCUSSION...04 AVIATION...23 MARINE...13  037 FXUS64 KAMA 131820 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 120 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 - Elevated to critical fire weather conditions expected today through Friday due to breezy/gusty winds combined with dry conditions. Gusts 30 to 40 mph with RH values in the teens. - An isolated severe storm cannot be ruled out in the far east to southeastern TX Panhandle Tuesday afternoon into evening. - A potentially strong cold front late Friday is expected to follow another critical fire weather day Friday afternoon. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Southwest flow aloft over the FA can be seen on GOES water vapor imagery at this time. Upstream is a mid to upper level trough axis running from central CA up into western MT. Until this trough reaches the combined Panhandles on Wed, southwest flow will continued to bring some high level moisture from the Pacific while upper level winds induce leeside lows over eastern CO and western KS. The surface lows are expected to bring breezy sustained southwest winds and drier air to the surface with lower Tds in the upper 20s to lower 30s. This means critical fire weather conditions are expected today and tomorrow, as afternoon temperatures reach into the 80s and drop RH values into the teens. Today, winds are not expected to gusts higher than maybe 40 to 45 mph. However, tomorrow as H7 winds increase with the approaching trough, the probability for a gust of 50 mph increase to around 10 percent in the far northwest. Mainly from Texline to Boise City. With the mid to upper moisture seen in the water vapor imagery, it is reasonable to agree with current CAMS that try to produce some very light returns both today and tomorrow. For today, mainly expecting some potential virga showers over the central to western Texas Panhandle. Tomorrow, a potential dryline in the eastern combined Panhandles, mainly the TX Panhandle, is expected bring a slight chance for thunderstorms. There is some uncertainty to the position of the dryline and whether it will retreat back into the TX Panhandle after exiting. If a storm does pop and mature would not rule out a severe threat for large hail and damaging winds. A potential for a tor will increase further east and south of the TX Panhandle. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A mid to upper level trough over CA is expected to arrive in the Panhandles come Wed. This means lower afternoon temperatures in the mid 70s to the northwest, with limited mid 80s in the SE TX Panhandle are expected for Wed afternoon. A surface low just to the north will eject off to the northeast towards western IA Wed afternoon. This is expected to allow the pressure gradient to relax with Wed seeing the calmest winds this week. Elevated fire weather conditions are still expected as westerly downsloping surface winds bring Tds down into the 20s. While surface winds are only expected to be topping out around 15 mph, RH values are expected to drop to around 8-10%. Upper level ridging is expected to return for Thu and Fri, with Fri being under the leading edge of the next upper level trough. Afternoon highs are expected to reach back into the 80s with continued dry air at the surface with minimum RH values dropping out in the 5-10% range. Critical fire weather conditions return as the surface pressure gradient steepens once again causing 20+ kt sustained winds out of the southwest. As the next upper level trough swings into the Rockies and approaches the Great Plains Friday, upper level winds are expected to increase. In turn, winds are expected to be a bit higher on Friday than Thu. Right now the NBM introduces a 10-15% probability of wind gusts exceeding 50 mph in the northwestern Panhandles Friday afternoon. Any potential wildfires that may be occurring Friday afternoon will also, be under the threat of a potentially potent cold front that will bring in windy north winds and changed fire progression to the south. Also, there may be a dryline impacting the far eastern Panhandles with a slight chance for severe storms ahead of the cold front. With this expected cold front, a nice break with the 80s degrees should occur over the weekend with NBM highs being in the 60s for Saturday and 70s for Sunday. However, really low Tds in the single digits are expected. Therefore, RH values are still expected to tank into the teens with at a minimum elevated fire weather conditions being present. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period with gusty southwest winds reaching 30 to 35 kts. Some high clouds may produce some virga showers near KAMA after 22Z. Rain and thunder is not expected to impact the terminal at this time, but if these showers do form they may produce stronger and erratic wind gusts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Continuous dry conditions especially in the central to western combined Panhandles will combined with RH values in the teens tomorrow, single digits Wed onward. Twenty-foot winds are expected to be at the very least 20 to 25 mph for Tuesday with gusts around 35 to 45 mph. As a result an RFTI's of 4 to 6 are expected for much of the combined Panhandles. The exception being the far eastern Panhandles that may be on the moist side of a dryline where a slight chance of thunderstorms exist. Winds are expected to fall off Wed to around 15 mph (20ft). However, RH values are expected to drop to as low as 8 percent as Tds drop off under westerly, downsloping winds. Afternoon temperatures may be cooler in the 70s but due to the Tds dropping off the RH is expected to be lower than today and tomorrow. Therefore, expecting at a minimum, elevated fire weather conditions. Thursday, winds pick back up again to near 20 mph with RH in the single digits. This will lead to an RFTI around 4 to 7. With the higher end of these values being located in the northwestern combined Panhandles. Friday, an approaching upper level system is expected to bring even higher winds for Friday. With a 5 to 10 percent chance for gusts up to 50 mph. The fire weather conditions Friday, west of a dryline feature, will prelude a potentially potent cold front that will bring a wind shift to the north with breezy and gusty winds Friday night. Areas in the western combined Panhandles are looking to have RFTI values in the 6 to 8 range. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>020-317. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for TXZ001>020-317. OK...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001>003. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for OKZ001>003. && $$ SHORT TERM...03 LONG TERM....03 AVIATION...03  165 FXUS64 KHUN 131822 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 122 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New NEAR TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1039 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 - Low RH values and gusty winds may result in elevated fire weather conditions Tuesday through Wednesday. - There is a low chance of thunderstorms on Thursday. && .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 122 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Forecast is still on track for tonight. The few showers that are out in NW AL and Southern Middle TN will come to an end after sunset and cloud cover will decrease thereafter to become partly cloudy west of I-65 to mostly clear east of I-65. Afternoon temps are still expected to reach the lower 80s and will fall into the mid 50s tonight where there is less cloud cover to the lower 60s elsewhere. Southerly winds will be 5-10 mph. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday) Issued at 1039 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 High pressure at the surface east of the southeast coast, and upper ridging over the eastern Gulf region will control the general weather situation over and around the Tennessee Valley as we go into the mid week. With more sun and ever so higher heights and thickness values, very warm and dry conditions will continue. As such, high temperatures both Tuesday and Wednesday should top out in the mid 80s, with lows Tuesday night in the mid 50s east to lower 60s west. High temperatures in the mid 80s and dewpoints mainly in the 50s will result in minimum afternoon relative humidities reduced into the lower 30s percent. While these are above critical outdoor fire levels, they are low enough (plus dry antecedent conditions) along with daily winds from the SW 5-15 mph, and gusts over 20 mph in the afternoon, could result in dangerous outdoor fire weather concerns. Area residents are urged to exercise caution regarding outdoor fires, and pay heed to any outside fire restrictions and/or bans. Depending upon local conditions, outdoor fires could grow and spread more rapidly than one anticipates. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 954 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026 Heading into the latter half of the week, an upper wave will run into the ridge that has been hanging onto the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. As the wave lifts into the Upper Midwest Thursday afternoon, another weaker wave seems to develop in the Lower MS Valley. This southern wave will bring a low chance (20-40%) of showers and some thunderstorms on Thursday. We are in desperate need of rainfall, so will take what little amount we can get out of Thursday. Those rainfall chances will be short lived as a ridge builds back into the region on Friday. This will push daytime highs to even more unseasonably warm values than what we have been experiencing this Spring. Some of us could see our first 90 degree reading of the year on Friday afternoon, 15+ degrees above normal! Now this may not be considered hot for Alabama, however it is for mid April, so be sure to be heat smart. Take it slow, seek shade and remain hydrated. Welcomed rain chances return this weekend, sorry it's over the weekend, as a trough digs through the Plains and back up into the Midwest and drags a cold front into the Southeast. Unseasonably warm temps in the upper 80s will linger into Saturday but values will drop on Sunday after the frontal passage. Look for highs that are much cooler, yet seasonable, in the mid to upper 70s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 VFR weather should continue for the TAF. A feed of mid-level moisture moving SW-NE could produce a few sprinkles or light showers over NW AL this afternoon. Otherwise scattered to broken mid and high altitude clouds are expected through Tue morning. SW winds of 5-15 kt with gusts above 20kt this afternoon, should become southerly 5-10 kt tonight. S-SW winds of 5-15 kt are expected Tue. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...JMS SHORT TERM....RSB LONG TERM....JMS AVIATION...RSB  135 FXUS61 KPHI 131822 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 222 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Small Craft Advisory now includes the Delaware Bay. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Potentially record breaking warmth is possible this week with very warm and above normal temperatures continuing through the upcoming weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Potentially record breaking warmth is possible this week with very warm and above normal temperatures continuing through the upcoming weekend. A significant warm up is expected to continue through the week and into the upcoming weekend with the potential for record breaking temperatures. With high pressure situated over the Atlantic Ocean and the warm front well north of the Mid-Atlantic region, continued warmth is expected. Very warm air aloft coupled with warm air at surface levels will allow temperatures to be as much as 15 to 30 degrees above average this week. As of now, forecast highs are in the low to mid 80s on Tuesday with mid/upper 80s to low 90s on both Wednesday and Thursday, though Thursday may be a touch cooler due to more cloud cover. See Climate Section below regarding potential record breaking temperatures. If temperatures touch 90F, it would be the first 90 degree day of the year and first since early September. As is typical in spring though, temperatures along and near the coast will be significantly cooler due to the colder sea surface temperatures and diurnal sea breeze. While a weak surface front passes through late Thursday night into Friday morning, temperatures will stay well above normal through the weekend with temps mainly in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Not only will it be very warm over the course of the week, but it will also remain mainly dry. This is of elevated concern for ongoing drought/abnormally dry conditions over much of the area, which will likely only get worse after this week. A few weak disturbances will pass by to the north through Thursday, but other than a stray shower or thunderstorm each afternoon north of the I-78 corridor, no significant rainfall is expected. Flow will generally be out of the southwest, which is more favorable in terms of moisture, which likely will hinder the fire weather concerns this week. Winds will generally be light as well, as another limiting factor. So, even though it will be warm and dry, fire weather concerns are minimal. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Rest of today (through 00Z)...VFR. A spotty sprinkle possible across MIV/ACY this afternoon. Southwest winds 10-15 kts with gusts of 20-25 kts. High confidence. Tonight...Primarily VFR. Southwesterly winds around 5-10 kts decreasing to around 5 knots or less late in the overnight hours. High confidence. Tuesday...Prevailing VFR. Southwesterly winds around 10 kts with gusts of 15-20 kts in the afternoon. High confidence. Outlook... Tuesday night...VFR. No significant weather expected. Wednesday through Thursday night...Prevailing VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms (~20-40%) in the afternoon and evening hours each day for the Lehigh Valley and I-95 terminals. Friday through Saturday...VFR. A few showers possible, otherwise no significant weather. && .MARINE... Small Craft Advisory was expanded to include the Delaware Bay. Southwest wind gusts of 25-30 kts will persist through late afternoon and early evening hours. Seas of 4-6 feet will gradually diminish tonight, falling below 5 feet after midnight. Sub-SCA conditions expected for Tuesday. Southwest winds will gust to around 15-20 kts in the afternoon with seas around 2-4 feet. Outlook... Tuesday night through Saturday...No marine headlines expected. Winds will generally remain below 20 kt with seas around 2-4 feet. A few showers possible, otherwise fair weather. && .CLIMATE... Warm temperatures well above normal are expected for the upcoming week. Wednesday is currently projected to be the warmest day, though Tuesday through Thursday could see some records broken depending on the site. Below are record highs and record high minimum temperatures for April 14th through April 16th. Record High Temperatures April 14 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 88/2023 AC Airport (ACY) 86/1945 AC Marina (55N) 90/1941 Georgetown (GED) 87/1977 Mount Pocono (MPO) 84/2023 Philadelphia (PHL) 91/1941 Reading (RDG) 90/1941 Trenton (TTN) 89/1941 Wilmington (ILG) 87/1941 Record Warmest Low Temperatures April 14 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 61/2014 AC Airport (ACY) 63/2023 AC Marina (55N) 60/2023 Georgetown (GED) 65/2019 Mount Pocono (MPO) 56/2014 Philadelphia (PHL) 62/2014 Reading (RDG) 64/2014 Trenton (TTN) 62/2014 Wilmington (ILG) 60/2014 Record High Temperatures April 15 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 86/1941 & 1994 AC Airport (ACY) 90/1967 AC Marina (55N) 86/1941 Georgetown (GED) 86/1960 & 2024 Mount Pocono (MPO) 82/1941 Philadelphia (PHL) 88/1941 Reading (RDG) 86/1941 & 1994 Trenton (TTN) 87/1994 Wilmington (ILG) 86/1896 Record Warmest Low Temperatures April 15 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 59/2002 AC Airport (ACY) 61/2002 AC Marina (55N) 59/2006 Georgetown (GED) 65/2002 Mount Pocono (MPO) 58/2002 Philadelphia (PHL) 64/2002 Reading (RDG) 64/1938 Trenton (TTN) 63/2002 Wilmington (ILG) 62/2002 Record High Temperatures April 16 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 90/2012 AC Airport (ACY) 89/2002 AC Marina (55N) 88/2002 Georgetown (GED) 89/2002 Mount Pocono (MPO) 85/2002 Philadelphia (PHL) 90/2002 Reading (RDG) 90/2012 Trenton (TTN) 91/2012 Wilmington (ILG) 92/1896 Record Warmest Low Temperatures April 16 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 60/1941 AC Airport (ACY) 62/2002 AC Marina (55N) 64/2002 Georgetown (GED) 65/2012 Mount Pocono (MPO) 56/2002 Philadelphia (PHL) 62/2002 Reading (RDG) 65/1941 Trenton (TTN) 62/2002 Wilmington (ILG) 63/2002 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ430- 431. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ450>455. && $$ DISCUSSION...DeSilva/MJL AVIATION...DeSilva/MJL MARINE...DeSilva/MJL  068 FXUS63 KOAX 131824 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 124 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Very high fire danger this afternoon, mainly west of line from Lincoln to Norfolk. Expect southwest winds gusting 20-30 mph and humidity dropping to 15 to 30 percent. - An active weather pattern continues with the potential for precipitation across portions of the area through Saturday morning. A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible, especially Tuesday and Friday. - Cooler temperatures (highs in the 50s and 60s and lows near freezing) are currently in the forecast for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 124 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Satellite shows high cirrus across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa with surface obs indicating some scattered lower stratus gradually clearing out today. Winds are gusting 25 to 35 mph across the area due to a deepening surface low currently sitting over east-central Nebraska. Despite high clouds winds should help with mixing allowing temperatures to warm into the mid-to- upper 80s this afternoon. Humidity will also fall fairly low, dropping to 15 to 25 percent across much of our area. Recent green-up as well as weaker winds in the driest areas toward central Nebraska should keep fire weather conditions from reaching extreme, but it could be close and will be monitored this afternoon into the early evening. The surface low to our west is forecast to track into northeast Nebraska this evening with a couple CAMs showing a storm developing in the return flow on the northwest side of the Low around 7-8pm. Confidence is low that there will be enough moisture for thunderstorm development, so PoPs in that area this evening are 20% or less. The active pattern continues in the southwesterly flow ahead of a deep trough moving into the Rockies on Tuesday. Once the first low exits to the northeast overnight tonight, attention turns to the next low that develops over eastern Colorado and moves into north-central Kansas and south-central Nebraska. This system tracks a little farther south with the warm front developing just north of the Kansas-Nebraska state line. As the surface low deepens and gets closer, we actually see the warm front sink south a bit to the Nebraska-Kansas state line. Convective initiation in this area waits until better forcing arrives with the amplification of the low-level jet around 10pm. Storms rapidly develop along a line on the northwestern flank of the LLJ over far southeast Nebraska and northwest Missouri. Depending on the exact positioning of the warm front at this time, we may see these storms lift northeast into southwest Iowa towards midnight, clearing to the east around 2AM. Model soundings show these storms clearly elevated in nature with a strong inversion in place between around 2000-4000ft. Above this inversion there is ample MUCAPE, around 1200-1400j/kg. Though there is significant low-level shear along the warm front, because of the elevated instability storms should be rooted above the better shear leading to lower potential for any longer-lived supercells. Could see large hail, perhaps damaging winds, but tornado potential is almost zero due to the strong surface inversion. Once storms clear Tuesday night, we await the arrival of the next surface low associated with the upper-level trough on Wednesday. This third low will take a nearly identical track to the Tuesday system, but entrainment of drier air from the southwest will be our limiting factor for severe storms Wednesday afternoon/evening. Showers along the warm front Tuesday morning will likely lift north Wednesday afternoon as the Low moves into eastern Nebraska and we see the drier air get pulled into southeast Nebraska. While showers appear likely where moisture continues to wrap around the north and east side of the Low Wednesday afternoon, dry air will lead to lower PoPs across much of southeast Nebraska. Severe potential seems minimal with any showers and storms Wednesday afternoon and evening with any potential generally limited to our southwest Iowa counties and only for a short window as storms initiate before they exit to the east. We get a break from these systems on Thursday as a transient ridge moves across the region ahead of our next strong upper- level trough bringing a system through on Friday. Temperatures on Thursday will warm back up into the low-to-mid 80s under clearer skies. Thursday night we see strengthening southerly flow ahead of the approaching system. This system will have a stronger clash between warmer air getting pulled up north out of the Gulf, and much cooler air being pulled south out of western Canada. Timing of the cold front will be paramount in determining the western extent of potential for severe storms Friday afternoon. Ahead of the cold front, strong warm-air and moisture advection will lead to warm-humid conditions across much of our area. Winds could be fairly strong starting around mid-morning, with gusts 30 to 40 mph very possible. I won't go into too much detail on timing of this system due to uncertainty, but if some deterministic solutions are correct developing storms ahead of the front during the afternoon into the evening, we could see a good scenario for supercells with potential for large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Monitor this time period closely over the next few days for changes. Cooler air moves in going into the weekend. We could see a few showers linger into Saturday morning, even some light snow on the back side of this system. Precip should clear out by the afternoon with highs warming into the upper 40s to mid 50s, melting anything that may accumulate. We see a ridge push in on Sunday bringing temperatures back up toward normal with highs back in the upper 50s to low 60s Sunday afternoon. Models start to really diverge in the forecast for the upper- level pattern over the weekend going into next week. One thing to watch is that Machine Learning guidance from NSSL utilizing ensemble data indicates return of potential for severe storms Monday-Wednesday next week as well with temperatures expected to rebound back up into the mid 70s to low 80s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 124 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Scattered to broken low clouds around 1500-2500 ft this morning has mostly cleared out from the terminal areas with high cirrus still in place across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. Southerly winds gust 25 to 30kt this afternoon, weakening toward the evening. Storm development expected to mainly stay south and east of the terminals this evening starting around 03Z in far southeast Nebraska and moving into northwest Missouri or far southwest Iowa. Low potential (15-20% chance) for a few showers Tuesday morning impacting KOMA and KOFK, but any lower cigs with showers should stay above 4000 ft. Expect VFR conditions to hold through the end of the TAF period. Winds shift to the north overnight at the terminals turning more northeasterly after daybreak at KOMA and KLNK. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...McCoy AVIATION...McCoy  851 FXUS61 KAKQ 131825 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 225 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the forecast at this time. Updated aviation discussion for 18z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Well above-normal temperatures this week, with record to near- record temperatures possible by midweek. 2) Continued dry with fire weather concerns expected for much of the week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 205 PM EDT Monday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Well above-normal temperatures this week, with record to near- record temperatures possible by midweek. Surface high offshore has settled offshore of the northeast coast, and will build south into the western Atlantic through midweek. The resulting persistent return flow will lock in a very warm, dry SSW flow regime for much of the week ahead. This Bermuda High set-up, more typical of early to mid summer, will allow for temperatures to increase to well above normal through the next several days. Highs tomorrow climb into the upper 80s to near 90F tomorrow, with low 90s (to isolated mid 90s) Wednesday into the upcoming weekend. Slightly cooler upper 80s across the Eastern Shore and near the coast through the week. These temperatures are likely to challenge record high temperatures across the area, with the current records at our long-term climate sites noted in the climate section below. With the strong high firmly in place across the area through at least the end of the week, any fronts approaching the region will wash out before reaching our area. Global model ensembles continue to suggest that a stronger front drops across the area late in the upcoming weekend, with at least a slight chance of rain in its wake. Meanwhile, building east coast trough will finally serve to break the heat ridge early next week. KEY MESSAGE 2...Continued dry with fire weather concerns expected for much of the week. With high pressure dominating our weather pattern, and no appreciable precipitation expected through the end of the week, fire weather concerns will remain an issue to monitor for much of the week ahead. After collaboration with state forestry officials and surrounding weather offices, will not be issuing any further Increased Fire Statements at this time. While breezy return flow continues tomorrow, winds/gusts are not quite as high tomorrow. That said, RH values are, and will continue to be dry, averaging 25-30% inland, 30-35% closer to the coast. Overall though, fire wx conditions remain a bit above critical fire wx thresholds tomorrow through midweek. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 210 PM EDT Monday... VFR conditions will continue through tonight, with generally only upper-level clouds expected. Breezy SW flow continues across coastal terminals this afternoon, averaging ~15-18kt with gusts to 20-25kt, with occasional gusts to ~30 kts possible. Winds gradually diminish this evening, relaxing to ~8-10kt overnight/early Tuesday. LLWS will once again be a concern this evening at KSBY, in association with a lingering LLJ. Cross wind concerns ease considerably at KSBY after 06z/Tuesday. Becoming gusty again late tomorrow morning, but much less so than today, with SSW winds remaining around 10 kt, gusting to ~15-20kt. Outlook: VFR and dry conditions are expected to prevail Tuesday night through Saturday. SSW winds prevail throughout the forecast period, as high pressure settles over the western Atlantic. && .MARINE... As of 225 PM EDT Monday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories remain in effect across the upper rivers, Chesapeake Bay, and northern coastal waters this afternoon. - A period of elevated southwest winds is possible Thursday night. High pressure remains offshore through the week as a ridge aloft builds over the Eastern CONUS. As such, winds remain predominantly SW through the remainder of the week around 10-15 kt. However, a period of stronger SW winds remains ongoing this afternoon with winds of 15-20 kt and gusts up to 25 kt (lower across the southern coastal waters and Currituck Sound). As such, SCAs have been extended until 6 PM across the Ches Bay and upper rivers. SCAs remain in effect until 4 AM Tue across the northern coastal waters due to a combination of 4-5 ft seas and gusts up to 25 kt. Generally sub-SCA conditions are expected from Tue through Thu outside of occasional periods of elevated winds each evening. Another period of SCA conditions is possible Thu evening/Thu night due to elevated SW winds, however, this surge appears marginal at this time. Otherwise, the next best chance for SCA conditions isn't until Sun-Mon as a cold front moves through the region. Waves and seas were 2-3 ft and 3-5 ft respectively this afternoon. Waves and seas subside to 1-2 ft and 2-4 ft respectively later tonight, remaining generally below SCA criteria through late week outside of a brief period of 4-5 ft seas across the northern coastal waters on Thu night. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temps for 4/13 - 4/16 Record Record Record Record High/Year High/Year High/Year High/Year Location 4/13 4/14 4/15 4/16 -------- ---- ----- ------ ------ Richmond 91 (1977) 90 (1977) 92 (1941) 93 (1976) Norfolk 88 (1977) 90 (1941) 90 (2024) 91 (1976) Salisbury 87 (2023) 87 (1941) 87 (1941) 89 (1976) Eliz. City 90 (1948) 90 (1941) 91 (1941) 90 (1941) Record High Min Temps for 4/13 - 4/16 Record Record Record Record High High High High Min T/Year Min T/Year Min T/Year Min T/Year Location 4/13 4/14 4/15 4/16 -------- ---- ----- ------ ------ Richmond 64 (1994) 65 (1899) 64 (2018) 64 (1912) Norfolk 65 (1994) 68 (2019) 68 (1941) 66 (2017) Salisbury 62 (2019) 65 (1945) 64 (2002) 63 (2017) Eliz. City 67 (2019) 68 (2019) 68 (1974) 68 (1994) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER until 6 PM EDT this evening for VAZ048- 060>062-064>069-075-076-079>083-087-088-509>522. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ630>632-634>638. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650-652-654. && $$ DISCUSSION...MAM/NB AVIATION...MAM/NB MARINE...ERI/RMM CLIMATE...MAM  661 FXUS63 KMPX 131825 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 125 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe storms expected along a warm front this afternoon through the evening. Hail is the most likely threat, with secondary threat of tornadoes in southern/southeast Minnesota. - Areas of dense fog in the morning, followed by clearing skies tomorrow with continued warm temperatures. - Multiple chances for rain showers and weak storms throughout the rest of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 124 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Eyes are glued to satellite this afternoon as we await convective initiation within a few hours, with the warm frontal boundary evident over far southeastern South Dakota through the I-90 corridor as a secondary boundary has set up farther north associated with the light showers stretching from central South Dakotas through St. Cloud. The southern boundary is the warm front associated with an incoming low pressure system that is expected to be the locus of severe weather activity later, with the northward extent of the front one of the key things to watch as this will dictate how far north the severe weather threat persists. Forecast soundings from various CAMs showcase extensive low level instability with upwards of 2500+ J/KG SBCAPE with limited CIN along the warm front but extensive 100-200 CIN north of it with a lack of low level winds/shear but extensive 0-6km shear. What this means is elevated storms capable of producing hail will exist north of the primary warm frontal boundary, with the warm front the most likely zone for potential tornadoes as storm interactions and streamwise vorticity will both be maximized within this zone despite the lackluster low level shear. The 17z WoFS run has largely favored a southerly solution for weather potential, keeping the best potential for both tornadoes and hail confined to the region south of the Twin Cities metro and favoring an area from roughly Olmsted County in SE MN to Jackson County in western WI (both covered by NWS La Crosse). The tornado threat is highly contingent on the dew point depression at surface level, as the lack of 0-1km shear means we need incredibly low LCLs below 500ft for the threat to be tangible, which means we need to be highly saturated below 1000ft otherwise the tornado threat may not end up being realized. The hail threat is the most likely overall given the extensive mid level shear and steep lapse rates, and even with lower level capping elevated storms would be capable of producing severe hail. The wind threat is largely relying on precipitation loading/momentum enhancement with limited lower level flow until the low level jet amplifies, however for our area this is not realized until later in the evening when the warm front is already exiting the area to the southeast. Overall, there is still some higher end hail potential and a tornado threat and we will have to closely monitor the position of the warm front as well as overall storm environment over the next few hours. The timing window looks to be CI from 3-4pm, most intense from 4-9pm across the area, diminishing quickly as the front moves southeast after 9pm. As we keep a close eye on the environment over the next few hours, a Watch seems more likely than not at this point, it is more a question of if we have the confidence for a Tornado Watch versus a Severe Thunderstorm Watch given we expect the Tornado threat to be conditional versus the more likely hail threat. A few more elevated storms are possible for a few hours after 8-9pm from cold FROPA with limited potential for severe weather, with light showers and rumbles of thunder more likely as the environment quickly shifts towards some patchy dense fog early tomorrow morning with visibility reductions below 2 miles likely as temperatures drop back to dew points. This fog persists through the morning commute before diminishing rapidly after 9-10am, with another day near 70 tomorrow amidst skies clearing out to become mostly sunny by the afternoon. Another low pressure system developing underneath an incoming shortwave trough by late Tuesday introduces our next chance for showers, with the position of the system favoring areas to our south for severe weather with limited thunderstorm activity north of the MN/IA border. The low is expected to track from Omaha to Milwaukee keeping us on the relatively cooler northern side with showers persisting on and off throughout Wednesday before exiting early Thursday to the east. There is a non-zero chance for some isolated severe weather, however the better environment should remain to our south. Another surface low quickly develops ahead of a broad trough off the lee side of the Rockies by late Thursday tracking across the area on Friday bringing further chances for showers and thunderstorms, with the low becoming broader and weakening as it approaches. The current favored track would take the surface low towards northern Lake Superior by early Saturday, which would wrap in enough cold air from central Canada to introduce snow or wintry mix chances Friday night into Saturday morning. Accumulations are uncertain at this point as it will depend heavily on the track of the system, which is not nailed down just yet as we have a couple of systems before it arrives to get through. We end the period into the 2nd half of the weekend with broad high pressure bringing sunshine and temperatures in the 50s for Sunday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1203 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A somewhat complicated forecast due to potential TSRA from roughly 20-03z across the area combined with some potential IFR/LIFR visibility concerns post-FROPA after the TSRA is out of the area. Winds favor easterly/southeasterly ahead of the incoming TSRA, becoming light and variable after TSRA heads out of the area with speeds remaining 8kts or lower throughout. The confidence to include gusts within the prob30/TEMPO groups with TSRA was too low, however gusts are certainly a possibility with any TSRA that moves through, the magnitude is just uncertain. The key feature to watch will be the position of the warm front as that will directly relate to the best TSRA potential as well as the position of potential IFR CIGS during the period of TSRA. A period of IFR/LIFR is likely after the TSRA ends from roughly 06-15z depending on location due to low level fog/CIGS, which wraps up quickly after 14-15z. KMSP...Kept the previous TEMPO from 22-01z intact as this period is most likely to see TSRA, with a start time perhaps an hour earlier as far as the first storms to appear. Lingering -SHRA is less certain and could contain brief thunder, however the post TSRA period is less certain with guidance handling it in dramatically different ways. There is solid consensus for a 5-6 hour period of IFR due to fog after 08-09z, ending around 15z. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...MVFR/SHRA early, then VFR. Wind NE 5kts. THU...VFR, chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind N 5-10kts. FRI...MVFR/SHRA likely, chance -TSRA. Wind SE to SW 10-15G25kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TDH AVIATION...TDH  669 FXUS65 KPSR 131825 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 1125 AM MST Mon Apr 13 2026 .UPDATE...18Z Aviation Discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - A weather system will swing through the region today and tonight bringing more breezy to locally windy conditions as well as chances for light showers focused over the Arizona high terrain. - Weak high pressure will settle back into the region during the middle of the week leading to drier and slightly warmer conditions. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Current objective analysis shows a large scale trough encompassing the majority of the Western U.S., while two pieces of PV energy are in the process of combining over California. Water vapor imagery continues to show abundant upper level moisture over the Desert Southwest, but also a swath of dry air moving into our region from the west. As we dry out in the upper levels today, the consolidate shortwave trough will finally move into our region from the west beginning this afternoon. Guidance does indicate some modest mid-level moisture advecting in just ahead of the shortwave focusing just ahead and along a weak cold front forecast to move through this evening. Winds will again become quite breezy by this afternoon, but gusts should mostly reach between 20-30 mph. As the cold front and main PV center sweeps eastward across the region this evening through early tonight, Hi-Res CAMs suggest some isolated showers are likely to develop. These showers will be fighting against a dry boundary layer, so the bulk of lower desert locations will at most see a trace while the Arizona higher terrain may see a few hundredths to up to a tenth of an inch in a few spots. As the disturbance continues to weaken and lifts to the northeast on Tuesday, a few light showers may still be possible during the morning hours over far eastern Arizona. Temperatures today are expected to be quite mild with highs only reaching into the mid to upper 70s across southeast California to the upper 70s to around 80 degrees in the Phoenix area. After the cold front moves through this evening, overnight temperatures should dip well into the 50s for the Phoenix metro to as cool as the mid 40s across the western deserts where skies are likely to become clear by late evening. Tuesday's weather should be the pick of the week as the cool air mass remains in place keeping highs mostly in the upper 70s under sunny skies and fairly light winds. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Shortwave ridging will briefly move through the region on Wednesday leading to another quiet day while temperatures warm back into the mid 80s for most lower desert locations. A robust Pacific low pressure system will also move through the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday on its way to the Great Basin by Thursday. Ensembles continue to favor a more northern track with this low across the Great Basin and into the Central Rockies while also weakening. The base of the trough may clip Arizona, but all indications so far keep any system energy and moisture well to our north. However, the fairly close proximity of the system should be enough to bring more breezy to locally windy conditions on Thursday and/or Friday while also leading to a slight dip in temperatures likely for Friday. Looking ahead for next weekend a more significant ridge is expected to move over the Western U.S. with the NBM suggesting a return of highs back into the 90s by Sunday. Fortunately, this warm up may be fairly brief as guidance mostly favors another trough moving in from the west northwest at some point during the first half of next week. && .AVIATION...Updated at 1825Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: The main aviation concern during the TAF period will be breezy conditions during much of the afternoon and evening hours. Speeds will gradually increase over the course of the next few hours, with gusts around 20-25 kts. Although confidence is low, regional virga may cause some sudden and strong wind shifts. If this were to be realized at one of any of the terminals, it is not out of the question that a brief period of reduced VIS in BLDU may be observed A narrow window of higher gusts (25+ kt) will be seen early tonight as a front progresses through the region but winds should begin to calm into the overnight and early morning hours. This boundary will also present the potential for some isolated shower activity, but the the timing is too short and potential too low to warrant inclusion of SHRA in the TAFs at this time. Considerable cloud cover will be present through tonight, with the lowest bases around 6-8 kft. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: The main aviation concerns at both TAF sites will be gusty winds, this afternoon and evening. W'rly and SW'rly winds will be favored through tonight at KIPL and KBLH respectively. Gusts 20-30 kts will be common at both terminals through the afternoon before speeds eventually relax this evening/tonight. SCT to potentially BKN bases around 7-8 kft will be observed during much of the daylight hours before skies clear out. && .FIRE WEATHER... A weather system will pass through the region later today through tonight with chances for mostly high terrain showers, but CWR will be less than 10%. Today will again be quite breezy with afternoon and evening wind gusts between 20-30 mph over much of the area. MinRHs today will rise to 25-30% before lowering to 15-25% Tuesday and 10-15% starting Wednesday as dry air fully encompasses the region. Overall light winds are forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday while temperatures warm back into the normal range by Wednesday. Dry conditions will prevail through the rest of the week, but a passing weather system on Thursday and Friday should bring another round of breezy to windy conditions. The low humidities and the increased winds late week may bring a period of elevated fire weather conditions. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kuhlman LONG TERM...Kuhlman AVIATION...RW FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman  601 FXUS66 KMTR 131827 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1127 AM PDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1125 AM PDT Mon Apr 13 2026 - Slightly cooler to near normal temperatures through Thursday - Periods of gusty winds, especially at higher elevations Wednesday through Friday - Warmer temperatures return Friday and Saturday before unsettled weather returns for early next week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1125 AM PDT Mon Apr 13 2026 (This afternoon through Tuesday) Lingering rain showers persist over the Pacific late this morning with these forecast to diminish through the afternoon and evening. The RRFS (rapid refresh forecast system) and other CAMs (convection- allowing models) indicate the potential for isolated rain showers across the higher terrain of the southern Diablo Range and Santa Lucia Range this afternoon, diminishing as the sunsets. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions return to the region this afternoon with afternoon temperatures forecast to be in the upper 50s to low 60s near the coast and low-to-upper 60s across the interior. However, the highest peaks may not reach much above the upper 40s to low 50s. Tonight, temperatures will be chilly across the interior North Bay Valleys and interior Central Coast with mid-to-upper 30s expected. There is a low end potential for frost, yet widespread coverage in not currently anticipated. Elsewhere, temperatures will range from the low 40s to near 50 degrees F (warmest near the coast). For Tuesday, expecting dry conditions with temperatures warming regionwide by a few degrees as a shortwave ridge builds in wake of the exiting trough. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1125 AM PDT Mon Apr 13 2026 (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Additional warming is expected on Wednesday, but only again by a few degrees. All of this is ahead of an approaching frontal boundary that is forecast to be mostly dry. However, there are chances across far northern Napa and Sonoma counties Wednesday afternoon and evening, generally less than 25%. This said, there very well may be light precipitation as far south as the Central Coast as the front moves across the region late Wednesday evening and into early Thursday morning. Little to no measurable rainfall expected with this system. In wake of this system, offshore winds are forecast to be strongest across the North Bay Mountains and East Bay hills Thursday and into Friday. This will be as the exiting system shifts into the Great Basin and/or Intermountain West. There still is some uncertainty with the exact track of this system, thus less confidence in the strength of offshore winds. However, widespread wetting rainfall across the region has greatly reduced fire weather concerns (at least in the short term). Weak ridging will build in behind the aforementioned system on Friday and Saturday with temperatures returning to near seasonal averages along with dry weather. Unsettled weather looks to return late Saturday and into early next week as another mid/upper level trough drops out of the Gulf of Alaska and approaches the West Coast. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1052 AM PDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Fair weather CU will be the name of the game today with mostly VFR and an occasional MVFR cloud drifting over the terminals. VFR through early this evening. Lower confidence on CIGS tonight, but enough residual moisture and offshore clouds will bring MVFR cigs back late tonight and early Tuesday. Vicinity of SFO...VFR. MVFR cigs return during the Tuesday AM rush around 13-15Z. VFR returns by Tuesday afternoon. SFO Bridge Approach...Less clouds over the Bay today. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR and onshore flow. MVFR cigs return tonight. && .MARINE... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 1052 AM PDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Rain showers linger through the morning before diminishing into the afternoon. Winds stay light through early afternoon, increasing to a moderate to fresh northwesterly breeze through Wednesday. Winds build again on Thursday leading to near gale force gusts into the end of the work week. Moderate seas continue through Wednesday before rough seas arrive on Thursday. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...RGass LONG TERM....RGass AVIATION...MM MARINE...RGass Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  776 FXUS61 KOKX 131828 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 228 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No notable changes with this update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Near-record highs expected Tuesday through Thursday with daily chances for showers and possible thunderstorms. 2) Strong cold front Sunday with temperatures returning to near to slightly below normal Sunday night and Monday. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... After seeing significantly warmer temperatures today, we'll continue the trend through Friday. Near-record highs are expected Tuesday through Thursday, with the warmest day on Wednesday. Even Friday will continue the well-above average trend in temperatures. Tue-Thu highs will be in the mid/upper-80s in NE NJ, NYC metro, and southern sections of the Lower Hudson Valley. A few places touching 90 on Wednesday. Highs become more moderates as you move eastward and along coastal areas. Long Island and coastal CT will see highs in the 70s. All this warm weather is aided in large part by anomalous heights aloft (500mb heights around 575-580 dam) and 850 mb temps more than 10C above average. While we have mainly zonal flow aloft, several subtle shortwaves embedded in the zonal flow will pass to our north through the week's end. This will lead to a series of passing weak lows to our north that bring daily chances for showers this evening through Thursday. Chances remain quite low on Tuesday but better on Wednesday. Thunderstorms appear isolated on Tuesday with most instability situated too far north, but Wednesday seems to have a better shot at seeing thunderstorms. The latest guidance shows more instability on Wednesday and given its our warmest day of the week, daytime heating with help with this. The main issue we have for thunderstorms on Wednesday is a lack of strong lift. .KEY MESSAGE 2... A strong cold front is forecast to move through the region during Sunday, while there are still some timing difference, consenus is for a cold frontal passage Sunday afternoon. Showers will accompany the passage, with a chance of thunder as well. After a prolonged period of above normal temperatures, the cold front passage will return temperatures to near to slightly below normal Sunday night through Monday night. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure will continue to slide offshore overnight while a warm front passes to the north. Low pressure will pass well to the north later today. VFR conditions across NYC metros north/west, with KGON still experiencing MVFR conditions. Clouds should scatter this afternoon. SW 10-15 kt with gusts 25-30 kt this afternoon. Peak winds mid to late afternoon could reach 20-25 kt with gusts 30-35 kt at KEWR/KLGA/KJFK. Winds should diminish after 00Z Tue. There could be some patchy fog late tonight but confidence in this scenario is low attm. VFR conditions expected on Tuesday with SW winds around 10 kt, with a sea breeze likely after 16Z. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Unscheduled AMD possible to fine tune timing of flight categories and increase in winds through this afternoon. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... Wednesday through Saturday: Mainly VFR but with chance of afternoon and evening showers/tstms each day, mainly NW of the NYC metros, with brief flight cat reduction to MVFR. SW winds could gusts 15-20kt each afternoon Wed-Thu as well. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Small craft advisory conditions subside into tonight. First for the non-ocean waters during the evening, then later at night across the western ocean. By Tuesday AM sub advisory conditions will prevail across all waters. Sub-SCA conditions will then remain through Thursday. Sub advisory conditions are expected on all the waters Thursday night through Saturday night. && .CLIMATE... Daily record high temperatures that could be reached: Wed, April 15: KEWR: 88/1960 KBDR: 81/1960 KNYC: 87/1941 KLGA: 86/1941 KJFK: 80/2006 KISP: 78/2024 Daily record high minimum temperatures that could be reached: Tue, April 14: KEWR: 62/2014 KBDR: 54/2023 KNYC: 70/2023 KLGA: 67/2023 KJFK: 55/2023 KISP: 54/2022 Wed, April 15: KEWR: 60/2023 KBDR: 53/2012 KNYC: 67/1941 KLGA: 64/1941 KJFK: 58/1960 KISP: 56/2023 Thu, April 16: KEWR: 64/2002 KBDR: 53/2002 KNYC: 69/2002 KLGA: 68/2002 KJFK: 57/2002 KISP: 55/2012 Fri, April 17: KEWR: 68/2002 KBDR: 57/2002 KNYC: 74/2002 KLGA: 73/2002 KJFK: 60/2002 KISP: 61/2002 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331- 332-335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ355. && $$ DISCUSSION...BR/MET AVIATION...20 MARINE...BR/MET  582 FXUS64 KCRP 131832 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 132 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 121 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 - Moderate Rip Current Risk today through Tuesday. - Minor coastal flooding possible the latter part of the week. - Shower and thunderstorm chances increase this weekend with the arrival of a cold front. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 121 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A few very weak showers will continue to stream northward across S TX this afternoon and again starting early Tuesday morning. These weak showers will likely only produce trace amounts and most locations will remain dry. Otherwise, the work week will generally be dry with above normal temperatures. The next chance of showers and thunderstorms is Saturday and Sunday associated with a cold front. Chances are low to medium (20-45%). Forecasted temperatures behind the front on Sunday will be a few degrees below normal with highs in the 70s area-wide. Due to model discrepancies and this weekend being several days out, confidence is low that the cold front will move through S TX. The forecast will continue to be fine tuned as the weekend approaches. So, stayed tuned! There is a Moderate Rip Current Risk today through Tuesday due to swell periods 6-8 seconds, and southeast winds 10-15 knots. Minor coastal flooding is not expected but can not be ruled out through Wednesday. The PETSS indicates increasing tide levels the latter part of the week, which may lead to water reaching the dunes at high tide starting Thursday. The better chance of coastal flooding is expected behind the weekend cold front. This is due to forecasted winds out of the northeast at 20-25 knots along with an increasing swell period. The swells may also lead to an increasing rip current risk. This all hinges on frontal passage. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 121 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 VFR conditions expected this afternoon lowering to MVFR this evening and overnight due to increasing low clouds. VFR CIGs are expected to resume by mid to late Tuesday morning. S to SE winds gusting to around 25 knots (approaching 30 knots at the CRP TAF site) can be expected through this afternoon, then decreasing this evening. Wind gusts increase again Tuesday, but is expected to be 2-5 knots lower than today. && .MARINE... Issued at 121 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A Moderate to Fresh (BF 4-5) onshore flow will persist through the week. A brief strong (BF 6) breeze will be possible each afternoon from south of Port Aransas to Baffin Bay. A strong onshore flow is expected to develop across all marine zones on Friday with advisory conditions possible. Winds relax Saturday, then shift to the northeast early Sunday followed by an increase to a Fresh to possibly a strong flow in response to a cold front. Low rain chances (<15%) expected through the end of the workweek but increase this weekend as the cold front moves across the region. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 121 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 The chance for wetting rains through the work week are very low (<10%) along with continued above normal temperatures. Moderate onshore flow (10-20 mph) will generally keep minimum RH values above 30-40% range during the period. Based on the forecasted above normal moisture and low ERC values, elevated fire weather is not expected at this time. The chance of thunderstorms increases over the weekend as a cold front moves across South Texas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 71 83 71 84 / 10 10 0 0 Victoria 69 84 69 85 / 10 10 0 0 Laredo 73 92 72 91 / 10 0 10 10 Alice 70 87 70 88 / 10 10 0 10 Rockport 72 82 73 83 / 10 10 0 0 Cotulla 71 90 71 89 / 10 0 10 20 Kingsville 71 85 71 86 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 73 80 73 80 / 10 10 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TE/81 AVIATION...TE/81  029 FXUS65 KGJT 131833 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1233 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler, wetter weather settles in tonight, lasting through Wednesday morning. Sloppy travel conditions are expected above 9,000 feet. - Sub-freezing temperatures are expected for some valleys early Wednesday morning. A Freeze Watch is in effect for the susceptible areas. - After a brief mid-week warm up, cool and unsettled weather returns to the region. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1222 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 INCOMING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM: The forecast remains on track for a low pressure system to track across the Great Basin region over the next 24 hours. As it approaches, strong, moist southwesterly flow continues to advect into eastern Utah and western Colorado. PWATS 100-150% of normal are expected by mid-day today, increasing to 150-200% of normal by Tuesday morning. This pattern will also continue to support gusty surface winds up to 35 mph. The surface cold front will push through ahead of the main low tonight into tomorrow morning, ushering in a much cooler airmass. Temperatures will run 5-15 degrees below normal helping snow levels fall to around 7500 feet. This supports accumulating snow at and above pass level, with valley rain showers below. The big question remains how much snow will accumulate, and how impactful it will be. The best forcing moves through during the day Tuesday, meaning that any accumulating snow will be fighting against the high spring sun- angle and the warm surface temperatures. Snowfall rates are also not that impressive, lowering the likelihood of advisory-level winter storm impacts. Regardless, if travelling over the mountains on Tuesday into Wednesday morning, be prepared for sloppy driving conditions. Some valleys will see temperatures in the upper 20s, low 30s Wednesday morning. As such, a Freeze Watch has been issued. COOLER AND UNSETTLED FRIDAY AND BEYOND: Wednesday and Thursday look to bring a brief break from the wind and the cooler temperatures as transient ridging passes through. Temperatures rebound to near or slightly above normal. However, another low pressure system drops in from the Pacific Northwest late in the week. While the details remain muddled, one can expect a cooler, wetter period as this system passes through. Perhaps most notably, a hard freeze is very likely Saturday morning. Stay tuned throughout the week as we continue to parse out what this system will have in store for eastern Utah and western Colorado. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1131 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Clouds will to increase through the afternoon as an approaching system brings more moisture into the region. Midlevel scattered to broken skies will be the rule along with some gusty surface winds, especially near any cells that will form this afternoon. Many PROB30 groups in place for precip later this afternoon with more predominant precip expected around midnight onwards. MVFR will be possible under lower cigs and vis thanks to rain and rainshowers. ILS breakpoints will be met heading towards 12Z and onwards. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning for COZ001-002-007-008-011-020>023. UT...Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning for UTZ024. && $$ DISCUSSION...TGJT AVIATION...TGJT  387 FXUS61 KILN 131835 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 235 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Added a specific message for severe weather Tuesday evening across west-central Ohio. Also separated the strong cold front this weekend into a separate key message. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Several chances for thunderstorms exist today through Tuesday evening. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday, primarily across west-central Ohio. 2) Well above normal temperatures are expected through the rest of the week. Episodic shower and thunderstorm chances continue. 3) Strong cold front moves through this weekend, bringing cooler temperatures Sunday and Monday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1) Chances for showers and thunderstorms through the rest of the afternoon and evening remain low, but given the Ohio Valley region sits within a broad warm sector, warm and moist air do support the potential. Thunderstorms in northern Illinois this afternoon likely pose the greatest chance for thunderstorm activity to reach the area (west-central Ohio) later this evening. Some of the recent CAM guidance has trended north, with the activity now remaining north of the local area. Otherwise, overnight activity associated with a larger cluster of thunderstorms propagating southeastward through the lower Great Lakes may survive into northern parts of the area into the morning hours on Tuesday. Any activity is expected to remain below severe thresholds, but the boundary provided by this activity could establish a conditional severe threat Tuesday evening across portions of west-central Ohio and perhaps into central Ohio. Currently, the local area remains in a level 1 out of 5 (Marginal Risk) for severe thunderstorms Tuesday. Due to the boundary discussed above, the severe threat may be contingent on meso-scale boundary trends following thunderstorm activity. Using the HRRR as an example, the outflow boundary from overnight Monday helps to pool moisture along a northwest to southeast boundary from Lake Michigan into west-central Ohio. Thunderstorms developing in this region would persist within an environment with backed flow and robust amounts of instability (if the low-level moisture modeled occurs). Curved hodographs and strong updrafts would at least support chances for damaging winds and large hail. A narrow window would also support a tornado or two depending on the ultimate evolution of the thunderstorms. With 24-plus hours before these storms develop, there will be plenty of time to see how the overnight activity evolves into Tuesday afternoon. Looking at Tuesday, records are CVG 84F (1887), CMH 86F (1883), and DAY 82F (1931,1941). Current forecasted highs for Tuesday are CVG 82F, CMH 82F, DAY 83F. KEY MESSAGE 2) Even if thunderstorms occur on Tuesday, the broader synoptic setup remains the same going into Wednesday and Thursday. The mid-level ridge is still in place supporting warm and moist air moving in from the southwest. Additional chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms exist Wednesday, with a more consolidated shortwave moving through the Great Lake and Ohio Valley on Thursday. Despite the stronger forcing with the trough, the severe threat over these two days appears low. Lackluster mid-level lapse rates and non- optimal timing on Thursday, likely decreases the severe potential. The severe threat may remain low, but multiple rounds of thunderstorms within anomalous PWATs could eventually result in high water concerns before drier air works into the region on Friday. KEY MESSAGE 3) The period of drier air on Friday is short-lived as a strong trough digs into the Midwest and Great Lakes. A deep low pressure and strong associated cold front provides the potential for stronger lift. Severe parameters are not significant, but they are also not zero. Forecast sounding indicate enough instability and shear could be present ahead of the front, especially if it crosses during the afternoon or evening. Behind the front, some frost potential exists, but it will depend on how far south the cooler air surges. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Low level clouds continue this afternoon within the warm and moist southwesterly flow. Wind gusts decrease later this evening with a period of LLWS developing overnight. Tuesday is forecast to be fairly similar to today, with low level clouds near MVFR thresholds. If confidence increases, MVFR CIGs may need to be increased from the current SCT. Another round of wind gusts of 20 to 30 knots is expected. Shower and thunderstorm chances remain quite scattered. The best chance likely exists with remnant activity from the lower Great Lakes moving into DAY/CMH/LCK during the morning hours on Tuesday. Chances are currently less than 30 percent. OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions and thunderstorms possible at times through Wednesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...McGinnis AVIATION...McGinnis  373 FXUS63 KLBF 131838 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 138 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - High confidence in critical fire conditions through early this evening. - Moderate confidence in precipitation potential Tuesday night into Wednesday - Low to moderate confidence in a return to near-critical fire conditions on Thursday as dry, warm, and breezy conditions return. - Moderate confidence in precipitation Friday and Friday night, with a low confidence of some light accumulating snow. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 136 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Dry and warm conditions will prevail through the remainder of today as upper level ridging begins to slide off to the east. Increasing precipitation chances returns on Tuesday as a developing low pressure system over the Rockies begins to push eastward. At this time, the main low will remain just to the south along the Nebraska/Kansas border. This should keep the majority of the precipitation, not to mention severe potential, to the south and east. Regardless, some of the hi-res models show some more organized convection developing across portions of southwest Nebraska by late evening. Current thinking is that these storms are not expected to be severe as the better instability and forcing remains to the southeast, but some of the storms could produce some stronger wind gusts up to 50 mph or small hail. Overall, any precipitation we receive on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning will be more stratiform in nature and sub-severe. QPF amounts with these showers will generally be under a quarter inch (0.25 inches), with up to a half inch (0.50 inches) possible in the heavier, more organized storms. The best potential to see any showers/storms will be between mid-afternoon (3pm CT) and late evening (10-11pm CT). Some lingering showers and embedded thunderstorms could continue into the early Wednesday morning hours, but overall coverage and intensity should diminish through the Wednesday morning hours. For temperatures, increasing clouds and precipitation will drop temperatures into the upper 60s to low 70s for both Tuesday and Wednesday. Even though temperatures will fall about 10 degrees from today's highs in the low 80s, these highs will still be nearly 10 degrees above normal. Overnight lows will also remain at least 5 to 10 degrees above normal from tonight through Wednesday night in the upper 30s to low 40s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 136 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A return to dry conditions arrives on Thursday as weak ridging builds back into the central Plains. Warm air advection with 850 mb temperatures in the 12 to 16 C range will allow for surface highs to easily climb back into the low to mid 80s. These highs will be nearly 20 degrees above normal for this time of the year. Latest probability guidance suggests a maximum temperature over 80 degrees to be near 100 percent for locations generally east of US-83. Increasing the probability to over 85 degrees, much of that same area still has a nearly 60 to 70 percent or higher probability. Therefore, confidence is high that these very warm, unseasonable temperatures will occur on Thursday. Would even expect the going forecasted highs to rise another couple degrees over the next few days potentially into the mid to upper 80s for much of the region. The warm and dry conditions will be brief as the next system arrives Friday lasting into Saturday. An upper level low will deepen over Wyoming on Friday and pivot across the northern high Plains into Saturday. This low and associated front will bring some precipitation to the region beginning as early as Friday morning across northwest Nebraska and into the Pine Ridge. Precipitation will gradually push south and east throughout the day. There is still some uncertainty in precip type and where the rain/snow cut off line will be. For the most part, will expect mostly all rain during the day, with the Pine Ridge region possibly seeing snow as temperatures remain cooler in that area. Still, maximum temperatures are expected to rise into the low 40s in the Pine Ridge which may inhibit any snow. Once the sun sets in the evening, any lingering precipitation will transition over to snow. How much snow falls will be highly dependent on the precipitation track and if any precipitation will remain over our area by the time temperatures drop enough for snow to develop. Looking at the latest probabilities, the highest potential (over 50 percent) to see accumulating snow will be across the Pine Ridge and in areas mainly north and west of a Chappell to Valentine line. Accumulations are still uncertain, but will continue to monitor this over the next few days. Beyond Friday night, upper level ridging builds back across the western US with surface high pressure returning to the central Plains allowing for a dry weekend to prevail. Cold air advection will push 850 mb temperatures in the 0 to -6 C range into Nebraska keeping highs only in the 50s on Saturday. Temperatures gradually warm into the mid 60s to low 70s on Sunday and eventually back into the upper 70s to low 80s on Monday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1213 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Some stronger winds are expected this afternoon across much of north central Nebraska. Westerly wind gusts up to 20 to 25 knots should be expected through the afternoon before diminishing around sunset. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through Tuesday morning as winds remain below 10 knots and ceilings above 6000 feet. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 136 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Critical fire weather concerns are expected through this evening as RH values drop and winds remain strong. Humidity will continue to drop over the next few hours before bottoming out near 10 percent by late afternoon. The lowest RH values will generally be across southwest Nebraska into the eastern Panhandle and western Sandhills. Westerly winds are currently gusting near 30 mph already and are anticipated to increase as high as 35 to 40 mph by late afternoon before beginning to diminish after sunset. A Red Flag Warning will remain in effect through mid-evening due to these strong winds, lower RH values, and cured fuels ready to burn. Increased moisture due to precipitation chances on Tuesday eventing and into Wednesday will keep fire concerns low through mid-week. However, a return to dry, warm, and windy conditions will bring a return to near-critical fire concerns on Thursday. Stay tuned to the latest forecasts for additional fire concerns heading into late this week. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for NEZ204-206-208-209. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kulik LONG TERM...Kulik AVIATION...Kulik FIRE WEATHER...Kulik  602 FXUS64 KBRO 131840 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 140 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 140 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Key Messages: - Breezy days continue through the week, with gusts up to 20-30 mph likely each afternoon and early evening. - A moderate risk of rip currents continues through at least Tuesday afternoon and is likely to prevail through most of the week. - A gradual warming trend increases temperatures to around 5 degrees above average, or warmer, by the end of the week. - The next chance of unsettled weather, associated with a mid/upper level trough and cold front, arrives this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 140 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 After a week or two of unsettled weather across Deep South Texas, we’ll return to a more spring-like or summer-like pattern this week with near to above normal temperatures, rain-free, and breezy conditions region wide. Persistent low level southerly to southeasterly flow will maintain warm and humid conditions as mid to upper level southwesterly flow aloft prevails with upper level troughing over the western US. Weak embedded disturbances may traverse along the flow aloft, but will likely remain north of Deep South Texas and result in rain-free conditions. Otherwise, expect daily highs to range from the upper 80s and low to mid 90s and lows in the low to mid 70s. Unsettled weather returns once again this weekend as an upper level trough and attendant surface features translate across the Plains. A cold front is expected to track across Texas heading into the weekend, and may approach Deep South Texas late Saturday or Sunday. In combination with high moisture content and diurnal instability, expect low to medium (20-40%) rain chances region wide Saturday night into Sunday. Details will continue to be ironed out over the next several days as certainty increases. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 140 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Partly to mostly cloudy skies will prevail through the forecast period as well established low level southerly to southeasterly flow persists. Expect VFR/MVFR ceilings through tomorrow. Expect southeast winds ranging from 10-15 knots with occasional gusts to 20-25 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 140 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas will prevail through the end of the week over the Gulf waters and Laguna Madre. A locally enhanced pressure gradient will likely result in Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions each day along the Laguna Madre and nearshore Gulf waters. Otherwise, expect rain-free conditions through the end of the weekend. Low rain chances return this weekend with an approaching cold front. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 73 86 73 87 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 70 88 69 89 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 74 91 74 92 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 72 92 72 92 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 73 79 74 79 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 71 85 71 85 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...22-Garcia LONG TERM....22-Garcia AVIATION...22-Garcia  128 FXUS62 KILM 131841 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 241 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes from the previous forecast with this update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Dry weather and above normal temperatures will continue through the end of the week. 2) A cold front expected to arrive next Sunday will bring a low chance of showers and a cooler airmass early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry weather and above normal temperatures will continue through the end of the week. A 500 mb ridge centered across Florida should expand northward over the next couple of days, leading to sustained dry weather and above normal temperatures across the Carolinas. At the surface, Bermuda high pressure will maintain a warm south to southwesterly surface wind direction. The beaches will remain considerably cooler than inland areas due to onshore flow and daily seabreezes off water temperatures still in the 60s. High temperatures in the 80s each day through Sunday have a reasonably good chance of exceeding 90 degrees inland Friday and Saturday, both days when models suggest the upper ridge will be at its strongest across the eastern Carolinas. There should be too little deep moisture present during the passage of an upper disturbance Thursday night for any rain chances to develop. In addition, increased fire danger is possible starting Wednesday. Wind and relative humidity will be marginal, but coordination with state forestry agencies is expected throughout this week with the extremely dry weather continuing. Record highs within 2 degrees or being tied/broken later this week: Wilmington: Friday Apr 17 record high is 89 from 2006. Florence: Thursday Apr 16 record high is 90 from 2006, and Saturday April 18 record high is 93 from 1981. Lumberton: Friday Apr 17 record high is 91 from 2006, and Saturday Apr 18 record high is 91 from 1941 KEY MESSAGE 2: A cold front expected to arrive next Sunday will bring a low chance of showers and a cooler airmass early next week. The latest GFS, Canadian, and ECMWF are in good agreement showing a strong upper trough moving eastward through the Great Lakes on Sunday, April 19. Height falls ahead of this feature should flatten the Southeast U.S. upper ridge early next week. Given the orientation of the flow ahead of the trough there's only a very limited potential for Gulf inflow ahead of the its passage on Sunday. A surface cold front should move across the eastern Carolinas sometime Sunday, accompanied by what looks to be our only non-zero precipitation chances over the coming seven days. Even then we're only talking about a 20 percent chance Sunday afternoon and evening. Three-week rainfall totals of 0.2 to 0.6 inches are only 10 to 30 percent of normal values. Six month rainfall is 9 inches below normal in Wilmington and almost 11 inches below normal in North Myrtle Beach. Ongoing drought, currently classified across our portion of the Carolinas as D1 (moderate drought) to D2 (severe drought) could worsen in the weeks ahead. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR through the rest of the day. Some stratocu ~4 kft with south to southwest winds ~6-10 kts will stick around through the afternoon until sunset. Inland sights could see a brief shift to southerly later this evening as the sea breeze travels inland but then winds should become lighter late tonight. This will introduce the chance for fog at all sites, but the extent of which is still uncertain at this time. For now, it appears SC may have a better chance for restrictions tonight, but they may remain to our south. While not in the TAFs currently due to uncertainty, would not be surprised if there is a trend towards BR ~06Z with subsequent updates. Expect another seabreeze in the afternoon Tuesday. Extended Forecast...Predominantly VFR through the week due to high pressure. Only exception could be some MVFR or even IFR fog heading into sunrise each morning. && .MARINE... Through Tuesday... Bermuda high pressure remains in control with predominantly SW winds in place. Light SW winds overnight will increase into Tuesday afternoon with the seabreeze. Winds will become more southerly ~13-18 kts. Seas will be largely 2-4 ft with an increasing southerly wind wave in the afternoon and a long period ESE swell, 2-3 ft at 10 seconds. Tuesday Night through Saturday... Not much change in the marine forecast for the rest of the week with dry weather and the S to SW wind direction continuing, with speeds varying from around 10 kt during the mornings to as much as 15-20 kt nearshore during the afternoons and evenings due to daily seabreezes. 2-3 ft seas will consist of an east-southeasterly 9-10 second swell plus local 4-5 second wind waves. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM KEY MESSAGES...ILM DISCUSSION...ILM AVIATION...LEW MARINE...MAS/LEW  936 FXUS61 KGYX 131841 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 241 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... There is a chance for a few strong to severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening across southwest New Hampshire. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Warm with a chance for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across southwest New Hampshire. 2. Above normal temperatures persist into the weekend, along with chances for showers most days. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Low pressure passing north of Maine this afternoon will lift a warm front through the area this evening with the cold front then stalling near the Canadian Border tonight. There will be continued chances for showers this evening with areas south of the mountains turning mostly dry overnight. A warmer air mass combined with partly to mostly sunny skies Tuesday morning will allow for temperatures to climb into the 60s across much of the area with 70s likely across interior western Maine and southern NH. Onshore winds will develop by afternoon keeping coastal areas cooler. Remnant convection from the Midwest will track along the stalled cold front Tuesday and much of the latest NWP guidance brings this activity across northern New England Tuesday afternoon and evening. However, there are timing and trajectory differences amongst CAM solutions which has implications for the potential of strong to severe thunderstorms. The 12Z HREF mean brings 500-1000 J/kg of MU CAPE into portions of southwest New Hampshire with around 40 kts of deep layer shear. The late outlook from SPC brings a Marginal Risk for severe storms into far SW New Hampshire with general thunder across much of the rest of the area. The primary threat from storms will be strong winds and will watch timing and instability trends to better gauge the potential threat. Chances for storms diminish Tuesday night with fog possible along the coastal plain. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... A large ridge persists across the Eastern US through the week and into the weekend. Northern New England finds itself positioned on the northern periphery of the ridge, bringing an increased chance for showers and many warm-up thwarting variables through the week. Southwestern New Hampshire holds the best chance to see the warmest readings each day through the weekend, but uncertainty grows further north and east across the forecast area for the forecast period as to how warm temps will really reach. Each day brings chances for showers as remnant convection from the day before across the Midwest rolls around the ridge and through the area. Clouds and showers from these hinder warmer temperatures chances toward the north. Additionally, seabreezes and southerly flow keep the Maine coast and central Maine on the relatively cooler side. Wednesday holds the best chance for southern New Hampshire to hit 80 degrees this week. 60s and 70s are most likely elsewhere. Then by Thursday a backdoor front likely brings a break in the warm up. The current NBM forecast has mainly 50s to low 60s across Maine, but there remains the chance conditions will end up gloomier than this. Western NH in the CT River Valley holds the best chance to hold onto the warmer temps through the week with 70s more likely. Late week and into the weekend, the warm up likely gets knocked back from a combination of back door fronts and leftover ridge rolling convection before a transition to northwesterly flow behind a passing cold front by early next week. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through Tuesday...Ceilings mainly stay VFR with scattered showers likely not bringing any restrictions. Lower ceilings at KAUG and KRKD may linger into tonight with trends towards VFR. Mainly VFR through early Tuesday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible after 18Z with strong to severe storms possible at KLEB extending to KMHT, KCON, although confidence is low. Showers and storm chances diminish Tuesday night with fog possible along the coastal plain that could bring at least IFR. Outlook... Wednesday-Friday: MVFR likely to continue due to showers. Periods of VFR are more likely across Southern NH terminals. Saturday: Mainly VFR expected. Saturday Night- Sunday: MVFR more likely with showers. && .MARINE... Strong southwest winds continue SCA conditions overnight with winds diminishing towards Tuesday morning. Winds and seas generally stay below SCA threshold Tuesday into Tuesday night. Generally fair conditions are expected mid to late week as a ridge persists across the Gulf of Maine. A backdoor cold front brings northeasterly flow on Thursday. Winds shift between southerly and northeasterly as the front lingers into the weekend. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ150-152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ151- 153. && $$ DISCUSSION...Clair/Schroeter AVIATION...Clair/Schroeter MARINE...Clair/Schroeter  185 FXUS63 KABR 131841 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 141 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Front stalls across central and eastern South Dakota today. Cool to the north, but still mild and dry in central South Dakota. A Red Flag Warning is in effect through 7 PM CDT for Jones, Stanley, and Lyman counties this afternoon. - Isolated strong storms possible this afternoon. Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe weather across north central and northeast South Dakota. Large hail up to 1 inch in diameter and strong wind gusts of 60 mph are the main threat. Slight risk (2 of 5) extends just into far eastern South Dakota through west central Minnesota. Hail of 1 to 1.5 inches in diameter and wind gusts of 60 mph are the main threats in that area. - A warming trend will take place through the week, peaking on Thursday with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s (20 to 25 degrees above mid-April normals). A strong cold front will bring colder air back into the region Friday/Saturday, with temperatures dropping to 10 to 15 degrees below normal. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 136 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Low stratus deck and pockets of dense fog has stuck around longer than expected this morning, leading to an expectation of temperatures much lower than previous forecasts, especially in the north. Central South Dakota may still see temperatures in the 70s, but over north central and northeastern South Dakota as well as western Minnesota the expectation is now that highs may struggle to hit 60 degrees. This temperature reduction will have consequences for this afternoon and evening's fire weather conditions and potential severe weather threat. Tackling the critical fire weather conditions first, the Red Flag Warning is still in place from 18Z this afternoon through 01Z Tuesday for Stanley, Jones, and Lyman counties. With the delay in the low clouds clearing out this morning, the resulting slight high temperature drop compared to previous forecasts will push minimum afternoon humidity up a bit. Parts of Jones and Lyman counties are still expected to reach below 20 percent, but concern further north into Stanley county is beginning to wane due to humidity ranging from 25 to 40 percent across the county now expected. Wind gusts also appear somewhat marginal this afternoon in that area, but a tightening pressure gradient (supporting a flip to a westerly direction) will still get gusts up to 25-30 miles per hour for a couple of hours. So while confidence is decreasing, the area may still still reach Red Flag conditions. Even if Red Flag conditions aren't met to the letter, relatively dry fuels in the area combined with the aforementioned humidity and wind conditions will support High Grassland Fire Danger regardless. There are two main areas of concern for severe weather today, the first of which coming over northeastern South Dakota and western Minnesota. Convection is expected to develop along a frontal boundary, which recent guidance has trended southward. Due to this southward shift, recent runs of CAMs have been much less impressed with the setup, and most keep storm initiation to the southeast of the forecast area. There remains a scenario in which a storm develop along and then up the front, moving north as an elevated storm. Should this occur, the ingredients at the mid- to upper-levels appear to be mostly in place to sustain storms this far to the north. Strong mid-level lapse rates between 7 and 8 C/km and ample shear upwards of 45 knots support favorable hail conditions, but the missing ingredient in the area is the MUCAPE, which remains more favorable closer to the front to the south (reaching at most 1000 J/kg in parts of eastern South Dakota within the Aberdeen forecast area). All this to say that while convective initiation does not appear favorable over the Aberdeen forecast area, still can't rule anything out at this point. Anticipating hail of 1"-1.5" at the most at this point, with damaging winds also possible, though they may have trouble mixing down to the surface with any elevated storms. A secondary severe weather threat is located over north central South Dakota this evening. Hi-res CAMs are almost more impressed by this setup, which is a bit of a reversal in the expectations put forth by previous forecasts. Development is once again expected along the front as it curves back north. With the front in the area convective initiation may be a bit easier, although the limitations from the lingering cloud cover may still prove fatal to prospective storms. Should something get going along the boundary, shear upwards of 40 knots, 500-700mb lapse rates around 7-7.5 C/km, and marginal MUCAPE (again about 500-1000 J/kg at the highest) may sustain a brief hail threat. After detaching from the boundary, MUCAPE will quickly run out as storms push north and east, limiting the expectations for a sustained threat this evening in north central South Dakota. There is once again a signal for fog development overnight tonight, mainly over northeastern and north central South Dakota. Strong humidity recovery combined with light winds provide the favorable conditions, with the main caveat being wind gusts upwards of 10 knots potentially dispelling some of the fog. However if conditions can stay calm (which under a weakening pressure gradient, chances of weaker winds should improve through the night), one mile visibility or lower may develop in the early morning hours. Briefly looking in the extended period, the broad upper-level setup keeps jet streaks and higher wind speeds aloft to the east of the northern plains for the next few days. The possible exception to this is a shortwave clipping eastern South Dakota on Wednesday, but presently precipitation chances peak around 20-30%. Otherwise, a warming trend is expected through Thursday, with highs reaching 20- 25 degrees above normal (highs in the upper 70s to low 80s) by that point. Fire weather may be a concern Thursday as well, with the heat bringing low afternoon humidity, combined with southerly winds gusting to 20-30 miles per hour in the afternoon. Ensemble clusters appear to be in agreement on a favorable setup for an end of week system to move into the northern plains. A longwave trough over the western CONUS will develop a low pressure center into the region. Early looks at ensemble meteograms show that with colder air being allowed to filter in from the trough, snow is very much a possible precipitation type, particularly on the back end of the system with lingering precipitation behind a cold front. Ensemble means show roughly one inch of snow through the weekend. Northwesterly winds will also pick up behind the cold front, with the latest NBM giving a broad roughly 10-30% over the area to reach Wind Advisory criteria of 45 miles per hour. However taking into account known biases in the NBM, those probabilities are likely a bit underdone. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG The low clouds will be the primary concerns in the next 6 hours, as we're seeing the edge approaching several of the sites, although the distance varies. Tried to hold onto the persistence at most sites for the next 1-3 hours, but then expect at least some scattering at some of the sites. Greatest confidence is at KPIR, while KABR seems to be a longer shot until later this evening. KATY/KMBG both appear to have some gaps in the low clouds nearing, but will the northeasterly flow up the Coteau hold the clouds at KATY. Felt that it's getting close enough to scatter things out at 21Z, but will continue to fine tune. Other item of note is the potential for some rain at KATY, but confidence is too low to go more than a PROB30. For the rest of the period, expect thunderstorms to develop in western SD this afternoon and push towards KMBG in the evening. Continued to show PROB30 for that potential, but left out the thunder mention at this point, as the trends continues to show that storm dissipating as it nears KMBG. For the rest of the sites, expect a return to some MVFR to IFR ceilings tonight over northern and northeast SD. Also included a hint of fog at KATY, but with winds shifting around to a northwesterly direction, wouldn't expect the intensity or persistence that we saw today. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Dense Fog Advisory until 3 PM CDT this afternoon for SDZ007- 011-020-021-023. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for SDZ033-045-048. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BC AVIATION...SRF  573 FXUS64 KOUN 131843 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 143 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 128 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 - This week will continue to feature an active pattern with chances for showers and storms most days, some strong to severe. - Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will return several days this week, especially across portions of northwestern and far western Oklahoma. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 128 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Continue to watch eastward progression of the dryline, currently moving east across western OK. Although some uncertainty remains as to how far east it will go before retreating back west this evening. Several models have it running along I-44 across southwest into central OK then north along I-35 by late this afternoon. This is likely to be the focus for any convective development, however there appears to be a lack of strong convergence along with dryline this afternoon as well as a lack of strong mid-level forcing. Although there is a few minor disturbances in the flow that may aid in some isolated activity from central into southwest OK by late this afternoon. The best chance may be to our south with isolated storms moving north toward the Red River this evening before dissipating. However, any storm that does develop will be in a favorable environment for supercell thunderstorms. To the west of the dryline, and especially across northwest OK, where there continues to be a lack of any substantial rainfall to help the transition of the vegetation from dormant to green-up, Fire Weather concerns remain. A Reg Flag Warning continues this afternoon into the early evening hours for that area. As we go through the overnight, the dryline will retreat to the west with an increasing low level jet. Toward Tuesday morning could see uptick in isentropic lift to aid in the development of a few showers and storms, mainly across southern OK into north TX. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 128 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 For Tuesday a rather diffuse dryline will be located across western OK and western north Texas southward into southwest TX. To the west of this line very poor overnight RH recovery will set the stage for elevated to near critical fire weather conditions across northwest OK by late morning, continuing into the early evening hours. Very warm and windy conditions develop by late morning as RH values drop below 20%. Will continue with the Fire Weather Watch for Tuesday afternoon and evening. As for convection, after the morning activity dissipates, much of the day is expected to be dry before additional convection develops by late afternoon. At that time models try to tighten the dryline up across western OK and an embedded wave in the subtropical jet moves northeast across the area. This should be sufficient to get convective development along the dryline across western OK southward into western north Texas. CAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg and deep layer shear of 40-50kts should be sufficient for supercell storms capable of very large hail, damaging winds as well as a tornado or two. This activity will work north and east of the area by late evening. Some models do show another area of convection developing well south of the area, but may hold together overnight and move back into Oklahoma toward Wednesday morning. If this does occur, a few of the storms could be strong to low end severe. Main trough then shifts east across the Southern Plains on Wednesday. As this occurs a dryline will tighten up across western OK and western north Texas with a Pacific front entering northwest OK by afternoon. Although some questions remain with regards to how the morning convection may impact afternoon development, but pockets of moderate instability and favorable shear would be sufficient that any storms that do form to become severe. Severe risk may linger across the eastern third, including our southeast OK counties, overnight. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 206 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Brief height rises in the wake of the shortwave Thursday may provide a break from storms. However, with another trough digging into the western CONUS, southwesterly flow will quickly return Thursday night and an increased sub-tropical jet may bring late night showers and storms. As the next shortwave ejects eastward towards the Plains, showers and storms will return again Friday into Saturday morning. A cold frontal passage by Saturday will bring an end to shower and storm chances for next weekend as it scours the moisture and the flow aloft becomes more zonal. Timing of the next wave may change and trends in timing will continue to be monitored. Fire weather conditions may persist through the end of the week and into the weekend, especially where fuels continue to remain driest in western Oklahoma and into western north Texas.&& .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1104 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026 MVFR conditions are currently observed spreading north/west this evening. These conditions are anticipated to lift by mid-morning Monday. LLWS is a concern late tonight and again tomorrow night. Will be monitoring the marginal risk of severe storms that are possible tomorrow afternoon and evening. Thus far, there is significant uncertainty on storm development and have left out of TAFs for now. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1104 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026 MVFR conditions are currently observed spreading north/west this evening. These conditions are anticipated to lift by mid-morning Monday. LLWS is a concern late tonight and again tomorrow night. Will be monitoring the marginal risk of severe storms that are possible tomorrow afternoon and evening. Thus far, there is significant uncertainty on storm development and have left out of TAFs for now. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 67 83 63 79 / 20 50 60 70 Hobart OK 65 87 61 84 / 10 50 50 50 Wichita Falls TX 67 84 64 82 / 20 50 80 60 Gage OK 60 89 56 83 / 0 20 30 20 Ponca City OK 68 87 62 80 / 10 40 50 70 Durant OK 68 81 66 78 / 20 30 50 80 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004-005-009- 010-014-021. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for OKZ004-005-009-010-014-021. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....23 AVIATION...14  188 FXUS65 KRIW 131846 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 1246 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Windy conditions, with gusts between 25 and 45 mph, are expected through sunset tonight. Gusty winds combined with low humidity will result in elevated to critical fire weather conditions across central and southern Wyoming. - Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible (30-60%) through sunset today across western and northern Wyoming. A strong shower or thunderstorm could produce gusty 30 to 40 mph winds. - A cold weather system is forecast to bring widespread precipitation late Wednesday through Friday, with most locations seeing measurable snowfall by Friday. A hard freeze (28 degrees or below) is looking likely (80% + chances) across the area Thursday night and especially Friday night. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1243 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 18Z satellite water vapor imagery shows two upper level lows, one over southwest Montana and another over central California. Both lows will shift east over the next 24 hours and influence our weather at the surface. The Montana low will slowly make its way into northern Wyoming this afternoon and evening and provide support for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across western and northern Wyoming. Modest instability will be present this afternoon with CAPE values up to 500 J/kg and 25 to 30kts of effective bulk shear. These values, along with terrain influence and 30 to 40 degree dew point depressions are all indicators that a few stronger thunderstorms could produce gusty 30 to 40 mph outflow winds. As for the mountains, light snow is expected to fall with snow levels ranging from 6,300 to 6,500 feet. If snow levels happen to be lower than what is forecast, the western valleys could see a rain/mix with any shower to storm. Shower and thunderstorm chances will come to an end around sunrise this evening as instability wanes and the low moves overhead. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions remain in place across central and southern Wyoming due to gusty 25 to 45 mph winds and relative humidity values below 20%. The Red Flag Warning in effect for portions of Natrona County remains in effect until 8 PM this evening. On Tuesday, light precipitation chances have been maintained across southern and western Wyoming as the aforementioned central California low traverses into Colorado. Light snow can be expected across the mountains Tuesday afternoon with snow levels around 7,000 feet. Beyond Tuesday, all focus continues to be on the winter weather and hard freeze potential Wednesday night through Friday night. Confidence continues to increase in most locations seeing snow by Friday as model guidance has remained consistent from run to run. However, we have opted to not issue any headlines at this time given this system only begins to arrive late Wednesday night and there are still a few uncertainties in amounts and timing. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 327 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 It is often said that Wyoming can experience many different seasons in a week. This is especially so during the transition time, and especially during the Spring as the battle between warm air from the south and cold air to the north holding on for dear life. We currently have another in the series of shortwaves rotating around an upper level low now moving into California. It is bringing some showers, mainly to western Wyoming. And some of this is in the form of snow, including at the Jackson Hole airport, where 700 millibar temperatures falling to around minus 4 have dropped snow levels to around 6500 feet. The steadiest precipitation should be over shortly after sunrise, but the chance of showers will linger through the day. Otherwise, things looks somewhat similar to yesterday, with a scattering of showers across the area with a few thunderstorms thrown in. Once again, the best coverage will be in western Wyoming with areas East of the Divide dry most of the day. The chance for strong storms looks less through, with cooler temperatures and less instability. And we have another concern, fire weather. The approaching shortwave will bring gusty to strong wind to portions of the area, mainly in the southwestern Wind Corridor from east of Rock Springs through Natrona County. There is a brief period of 700 millibar wind rising to 50 knots around 9 am in this vicinity. Ensemble guidance also shows a greater than 1 out 2 chance of wind gusts past 50 mph as well. However, at this point, critical fire weather looks to be the greater impact. Temperatures are running cooler than on Sunday. However, with a greater than 1 in 2 chance of relative humidity falling below 15 percent for three hours, we have decided to go with a Red Flag Warning for Natrona County. Elsewhere, relative humidity does not look to reach critical levels. Elevated fire weather is certainly a possibility though. Tuesday still looks to be a driest day across the area. Reasoning is the same as yesterday with the upper level low passing south of the area over Colorado. Models have come into better agreement with keeping the best forcing and moisture south of the area. The chance of greater than a tenth of an inch or precipitation is less than 1 out of 4 except in far southern Sweetwater County and the higher elevations of the northwest. Most areas should have a decent day with somewhat above normal temperatures and much less wind. Attention then turns to the next, stronger system moving in for the end of the week. An upper level low will move onshore in British Columbia on Wednesday and move toward Wyoming Thursday, bring a cold front and a decent amount of moisture. There is somewhat better agreement in regards to timing. A few showers may occur Wednesday afternoon, but any substantial precipitation should hold off until after sunset Wednesday. It will bring some gusty to strong wind though Wednesday into Thursday, following the usual progression of pre frontal Muddy Gap to Casper on Wednesday and Wednesday night pre frontal and transitioning to northwest / cold advection areas on Thursday and Thursday night like Buffalo, the Bighorn Basin and Wind River Basin on Thursday and Thursday night. Many locations have a greater than 1 in 2 chance of wind gusts past 45 mph during this time. However, of greater interest though is what will happen with something we desperately need, precipitation. This system is a fairly wet one, with precipitable waters as much as 150 percent of climatological normals. However, the exact track of the low is still in question as well as some mesoscale features with it. As a result, confidence remains rather low on the resultant placement of the heaviest precipitation and any potential amounts. So, this is when we dive into the wondrous realm of probabilistic and ensemble forecasting. And the National Blend of Models has good news in this regard, with a large majority of the area having a greater than 1 in 2 chance of greater than a quarter of an inch of precipitation from Wednesday night through Friday night. And this will be a cold system following the frontal passage, with snow levels falling to the basin floors Thursday evening. Most areas have at least a 1 in 2 chance of greater than an inch of snow over a similar period. Many of the northerly upslope areas, like Lander, the southern Big Horn Basin and Casper, have a greater than 1 in 2 chance of 4 inches or more. However, this is far from certain. Also, with recent warm temperatures and warm ground, any predicted amounts will likely not be the amount on peoples yards as some will likely melt initially. At this point, the most impactful time would be Thursday night into Friday morning with gradually improving conditions Friday afternoon. This is the best chance for decent moisture we have had in quite a while though. And then we move into the next question, how cold will it get? Thursday night will likely drop into the 20s, but snow and possible travel problems will likely be of greater concern during this time frame. The timeframe we are looking at is Friday night for the coldest temperatures. There are a couple of concerns though. One, the models are split on if it can clear. If it remains cloudy, temperatures may stay a bit warmer. Also, snow cover will be a big factor. If snow is lighter then expected and if the strong April sun can melt it off Friday, it might not get as cold. As we head to the ensemble guidance again, much of the area has at least a 1 in 2 chance of low temperatures falling below 20 degrees. Now, no one should be planting gardens or crops this early in Wyoming, long time residents know this. The main concern is with budding trees, flowers as well as sprinkler systems that may freeze. It is still a long way off, but we will have to watch it. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1213 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are again expected today as the area sits just downstream of an upper low to the west. This activity will not be as widespread, however, most focused west of the Divide. KJAC is most favored to see at least brief precipitation impacts this afternoon (TEMPO in place), followed by KBPI and KPNA (PROB30). Wind will be more widespread through the afternoon, with gusts of 20 to 30 mph at most terminals before sunset. Additionally, any shower or thunderstorm could produce outflow wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph. Focus then shifts to KJAC after sunset as temperatures drop and rain showers become snow. This should lead to a period of MVFR ceilings through around 05Z before snow ends. KJAC should then hold on to broken low VFR ceilings through late morning before clouds decrease. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 327 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A combination of humidity falling below 15 percent, a southwest wind gusting over 50 mph and dry fuels will bring critical fire weather to Natrona County this afternoon. Elsewhere, relative humidity should not reach critical levels. However, gusty wind and humidity falling to 20 percent may bring elevated fire weather this afternoon. Conditions should improve on Tuesday as wind decreases and relative humidity moves somewhat higher. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for WYZ280. && $$ UPDATE...Gerhardt DISCUSSION...Hattings AVIATION...Myers FIRE WEATHER...Hattings  510 FXUS62 KTAE 131848 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 248 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 246 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 - Patchy fog is possible on Tuesday morning over the Florida Panhandle and Southeast Alabama, mainly west of the Choctawhatchee River. If encountering fog while driving, slow down, use low beam headlights, and increase braking distance. - Little or no rain is expected through this weekend. Drought conditions will worsen. Fire concerns will remain elevated. Use extreme caution with any outdoor burning. Please heed burn bans where they are in effect. - Above normal temperatures will continue through this weekend, with lower 90s likely late this week. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (This Evening through Sunday) Issued at 246 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Surface high pressure extending from the Atlantic and upper-level high pressure spreading from the Yucatan will keep our weather high and dry for the next several days. Afternoon temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s with low 90s possible by the end of the work week. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s and low 60s through the week. As the weekend approaches, an upper level shortwave from the Midwest will bring a "cold" front closer to the Southeast but will weaken upon approach and fall apart. Another front will develop from a surface low over the Midwest and bring the cold front south to our region by Sunday. Little to no rainfall is expected. Temperatures behind this front will return to the mid-80s. During the morning hours, patchy to areas of fog (possibly dense) is may develop in the FL Panhandle and AL Wiregrass region. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 110 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 VFR conditions are being observed for all terminals this afternoon. Skies are largely clear besides some fair-weather cumulus at ECP/TLH and some lingering upper cirrus across the region. Winds generally out of the SE will taper off this afternoon and into tonight. This reduction in winds will help bolster some potential for fog development early tomorrow morning - mostly for DHN and VLD where RH values will likely be maximized. There is also the potential for some patchy fog at ECP tomorrow morning, however confidence is too low at this time to include it in the TAF. && .MARINE... Issued at 246 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A surface high extending from the western Atlantic will keep generally light to gentle southeasterly winds over the waters for the next several days. Seabreezes can be expected to push just inland during the afternoon hours. Later this week, the High will settle a little further south, shifting our winds more southerly. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 246 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Warm and dry conditions will continue through the week. Drought conditions will continue and/or worsen. Transport winds will generally be southerly; swinging from southeasterly to southwesterly at around 5-10 mph. Expect afternoon seabreezes. Dispersions will be moderate, with higher dispersions expected by Wednesday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 246 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 No rain is expected for the next several days. Drought conditions will continue or worsen. For more local drought information & statements, visit the following websites: weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 58 87 57 87 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 59 80 60 81 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 55 86 57 87 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 57 87 58 89 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 58 89 58 90 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 57 88 56 88 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 62 76 62 76 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114- 115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Montgomery LONG TERM....Montgomery AVIATION...Merrifield MARINE...Montgomery FIRE WEATHER...Montgomery HYDROLOGY...Montgomery  128 FXUS63 KIWX 131848 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 248 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - The potential for multiple rounds of showers and storms, possibly strong to severe, exist through Thursday. The most likely period appears to be Tuesday night into Thursday, but confidence remains on the lower side with finer details regarding impacts and intensity. - Hydro concerns could increase for mid to late week depending on tracks of successive convective rounds. - Above normal temperatures will continue into this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 238 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Challenging near and short term forecast through Tuesday night and even into Wednesday with a series of mid level and convectively induced disturbances expected to transverse the region. Certainty is highest in plenty of moisture and instability (steep mid-level lapse rates and SBCAPE of 1K to 2K j/kg) around for any of these waves. Certainty drops considerably with regards to timing and impacts of what could be multiple rounds of convection in some areas. As a result, hard to make any larger, wholesale changes to the forecast into Tuesday as we wait to see how things evolve. Will break things down as best as I can. To kick things off, we are closely monitoring a mid level disturbance moving through western IL with an area of showers and storms attempting to slowly expand which may impact west/northwest areas near/after 20Z. CAMS are all over the place on evolution (or lack thereof) of this area or possibly separate development later this afternoon or evening. As noted above parameters favor at least a threat of stg-svr storms with hail and maybe gusty winds becoming a threat with the stronger activity. Will maintain slgt chc to chc pops for now and adjust as needed based on trends. Some solutions also show development closer to 00Z with a west to east band of convection impacting northern areas. This seems less plausible at this point, but cannot be entirely discounted with both a severe and possibly hydro threat occurring. Confidence is high on development of stg-svr storms across portions of MN and WI in a very favorable environment this evening (SWODY1 Enhanced Risk outlines this). Much like the near term period, CAMs differ considerably on how this area evolves with some solutions tracking the activity due east and others suggesting a SE propagation towards us late tonight into early Tuesday with potential stg-svr storms and possibly some hydro issues (although this should be rather progressive). Again, limited changes to pops for the time being. Overnight convection will play somewhat of a factor wrt the threat for severe storms Tue afternoon-early Wed. Isolated storms could develop during the afternoon and early evening hours on any lingering boundaries, but the greatest focus will start to our west across eastern IA/N IL/S WI during the afternoon hours and then possibly expanding east and continuing to organize. Again, CAM solutions on the evolution of this into our area are all over the place, but signals are strongest for at least some convection Tuesday night into early Wednesday with both a severe and hydro threat quite possible. The new SPCDY2 outlook remains unchanged with the eastern edge of an enhanced risk to our immediate W and N, with the area in a slight risk for mainly a hail and wind threat. Not going to even try to make many updates at this point. The active weather continues Wednesday into Thursday as a somewhat stronger trough pushes into the area, with models somewhat in agreement on more widespread showers and storms with maybe more of a hydro vs severe threat. The area is presently in a Marginal Risk of Severe and Excessive Rainfall Risk. With all the challenges, not even going to try to make changes that far out. In the wake of the trough, one more push of warm air commences with highs Friday well into the 70s and maybe some 80s. Shower/storm chances will increase late Friday night into Saturday ahead of an even stronger trough that will eventually send temps back closer to, if not normal Sunday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 118 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A general trend to VFR ceilings is anticipated for the afternoon, but cannot completely discount a rogue BKN MVFR ceiling amid fair-weather cumulus. The main question of this TAF period is how do any thunderstorms evolve this afternoon and what impact does that have for the rest of the TAF period. Given the very high PWATs, have opted to bring the visibility down to IFR for TSRA. Storms are trying to remain organized across Illinois. Our local environment appears welcoming to these storms. At this stage, KSBN appears the best candidate to see TSRA, while KFWA would wait until tonight. Confidence is unusually low for these next 24 hours given a lack of model consistency and murky mesoscale factors. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Fisher AVIATION...Brown  687 FXUS65 KMSO 131849 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 1249 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Today: Scattered showers and potential for a thunderstorm along the Canadian border. - Wednesday: Pass level snow, potential travel impacts. - Wednesday night/Thursday: Strong cold front with snow levels to valley floors but light valley accumulations. Moderate pass level travel impacts continue. The low pressure system will continue to exit the region this afternoon and evening the majority of the Northern Rockies are expected to receive scattered showers with the best potential for thunderstorms being across northwest Montana, especially along the Canadian border. The shower activity will diminish during the overnight hours. The next fetch of moisture will start to make its way into the Northern Rockies Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday ahead of the next low pressure system. The bulk of the precipitation is expected across north central Idaho into northwest Montana. Snow levels will be hovering around 4500 feet, so any impacts from snow, which should be minimal, will be mainly confined to the higher terrain. Lookout, Marias and Lolo passes could experience a couple of inches of new snow, but accumulations on roadways be fairly limited. A strong cold front associated with the next low pressure system will push through the Northern Rockies Wednesday afternoon and evening. This front will enhance the precipitation and cause snow levels to drop fairly quickly. The latest model runs indicate that the bulk of the precipitation will be associated with the front. The front could also cause snow squall conditions as it moves through southwest Montana during Wednesday evening. Snow on mountain passes could create moderate travel impacts by Thursday morning. The better dynamics associated with a prolonged snow event appears to be north of the forecast area, but some wrap around precipitation could impact Glacier National Park on Thursday. Model guidance is leaning more towards widespread shower activity across the region on Thursday. The valleys should anticipate snowfall from the showers, but accumulations will be fairly minimal. The higher elevations could receive some additional snow accumulations by Friday morning. A ridge of high pressure slides over the region this weekend causing a warming and drying trend, but it will be short lived as another disturbance is expected by the first part of next week. && .AVIATION...Satellite imagery shows an upper level low moving southward towards central Idaho this afternoon. Clouds and shower activity continue to wrap around this low to the north and west, with rain showers focused in Idaho and northwest Montana. The atmosphere will continue to destabilize through early evening, with a 10-20 percent chance of isolated thunderstorms in northwest Montana near the US/Canada border. Shower activity will decrease this evening, ending for most areas after 14/0600Z as the low departs the region. Ceilings/Visibility: Areas of MVFR ceilings and visibility will continue under shower activity through this evening. Lower ceilings will focus along the ID/MT border and in northwest Montana. Surface Winds: West-southwest winds will continue through 14/0000-02000Z this evening, sustained near 10-15 kts. Winds are forecast to diminish significantly after sunset as the boundary layer stabilizes. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$  305 FXUS64 KEWX 131850 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 150 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated storms possible across the Southern Edwards Plateau and near the Rio Grande late this afternoon/evening and again on Tuesday. - Active weather along with Warm and humid conditions to continue throughout the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 1253 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 For the rest of this afternoon expect a mix of sun and clouds with many areas that saw sun already warming into the low 80s. This should help to dry out the majority of our area after the past couple days of rainfall that we had. The atmosphere is a bit more stable across the eastern two thirds of the area today so we aren't expecting as widespread thunderstorm activity with heavy rainfall as we have had the past few days. The one exception is out across the Southern Edwards Plateau as isolated severe storms are possible as a dryline over West TX tries to advance eastward. Most Hi-Res models have backed off on the thunderstorm potential as forcing remains weak and displaced much further north. Nevertheless, any storms that do form over West TX and Mexico have the potential to become severe with main hazards being large hail. As such SPC continues to highlight this area in a level 1 of 5 risk but as mentioned it remains to be seen if these storms form and can make it into our area late this afternoon into this evening. We could have a similar situation for Tuesday as the dry line once again tries to move father east thus helping to spark off additional showers and storms once daytime heating commences, some of which may be severe. The forcing looks slightly better as a western trough pushes further eastward and closer to our area tomorrow. SPC has parts of the Southern Edwards Plateau in a level 2 of 5 risk with a level 1 of 5 risk for the rest of the Southern Edwards Plateau, all severe hazards will be possible. Highs for Tuesday are forecast to be in the 80s to low 90s with lows both nights near 70 degrees along with very humid conditions. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 1253 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 We remain in a very persistent pattern of broad southwesterly flow aloft helping to keep our area on the more active side weather wise. We continue to see impulses eject out west and move across our region with the next one arriving sometime Wednesday into Thursday. As this happens storms are expected to initiate out ahead of this feature with most activity remaining west of the I-35 Corridor. Depending on what happens and how the storms evolve late Tuesday into Tuesday evening will have a major impact on how much energy remains across the area. The more storms that form the less energy leftover and vice versa. Regardless, SPC has the same area in a level 1 of 5 risk of severe weather for Wednesday. By Thursday we get a brief break as upper-level ridging moves overhead and allows drier air to spill in lasting until Friday. This will allow temperatures to warm back up into the upper 80s to perhaps low 90s. By Saturday Global models are hinting at a strong cold front that works its way southward across TX leading to another period of possibly active weather however at this time it's too far out to get into any specifics. Once this front passes both models are hinting at much colder air overspreading the region with highs that were in the upper 80s to low 90s Friday before dropping to the low to mid 70s by Sunday as CAA continues. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Primary concern will be development of MVFR/IFR CIGS at all sites tonight into late Tuesday morning/early afternoon before VFR returns. Winds will remain south to southeasterly at 5-15 kts through the period. DRT may experience some TSRA at the terminal, so a PROB30 was utilized from 03Z-07Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 69 84 69 85 / 10 0 10 30 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 69 84 67 84 / 10 0 10 30 New Braunfels Muni Airport 68 84 68 85 / 10 0 10 30 Burnet Muni Airport 68 82 66 80 / 10 10 20 40 Del Rio Intl Airport 70 84 69 84 / 50 40 60 30 Georgetown Muni Airport 68 82 67 81 / 10 0 10 40 Hondo Muni Airport 68 84 66 82 / 20 10 20 40 San Marcos Muni Airport 68 84 68 85 / 10 0 10 30 La Grange - Fayette Regional 69 85 69 86 / 0 0 0 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 70 84 69 84 / 10 0 10 40 Stinson Muni Airport 70 85 70 85 / 10 0 10 30 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CJM LONG TERM....CJM AVIATION...MMM  891 FXUS65 KCYS 131852 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 1252 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Red Flag Warnings continue for areas east of the Laramie Range through this afternoon due to gusty winds and dry conditions. - High Wind Watches remain in effect for the Arlington area and South Laramie Range into this afternoon. - Precipitation chances increase Tuesday through the end of the week with the threat of thunderstorms and snow. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 202 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Enjoy those mostly sunny skies and above normal temperatures for the daytime hours today because changes are in store Monday night into Tuesday, more on that in a bit. Rinse and repeat, fire weather concerns continue into this afternoon as conditions remain very dry along with gusty winds. A shortwave that slid across the CWA tonight may kick start high winds over the next several hours and persist through 3pm this afternoon for the Arlington and South Laramie Range zones. Dynamics are meager at best, but there is enough of a signal to keep the High Wind Watch out that was issued yesterday for said zones. Winds at 700mb ramp up to around 50 knots through the morning hours, and with enough subsidence aloft, per GFS, these winds may mix down to the surface. In-house guidance indicates a 60 percent chance of high winds, with the peak of high winds later this morning for the areas of concern, mentioned earlier, along I-80. Switching gears to the ongoing fire weather concerns. Southwest flow aloft and a lee-side trough, east of the Laramie Range, will keep winds gusty into the Nebraska Panhandle. This along with an abundance of dry fuels has influenced the SPC to introduce an area of critical fire weather concerns across eastern Wyoming into the Nebraska Panhandle through this afternoon. This area aligns nicely where west to southwest winds 15 to 20 mph, gusting up to 35 mph, will occur along with min RH values dipping down to 8-12 percent. Therefore, the Red Flag Warning that is out will continue through 8pm this afternoon. Locations west of the Laramie Range will escape the fire weather threat as isolated showers are possible for most of today, which is depicted nicely by hi-res guidance. Another shortwave will rotate in over western portions of the CWA, this will keep chances of showers in the forecast, snow at higher elevation (above 7K feet), Monday night through Tuesday. Speaking of Tuesday, a 500mb trough and vort max will slide in and cross the region through the day, this will spread precipitation chances east into the lower elevations, encompassing most of the CWA. This shows up nicely on the hi-res model suite, with precipitation chances along the I-80 corridor initially and spreading east/northeastward throughout the day. Ensembles show at least a 60 percent chance of a tenth of liquid, which will be a welcomed sign as our CWA has been extremely dry this season. Just like with the precipitation Monday night, the higher terrain may see a few inches of late season snow, not reaching advisory criteria at the moment. Temperatures will be a tad cooler with highs in the 50s west of I-25 and mid 50s/60s east of the corridor. Regarding winds, what winds you'll be saying, as winds for Tuesday/Tuesday night will remain relatively calm. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 222 PM MDT Sun Apr 12 2026 The period begins with a departing shortwave trough and building of a weak mid-level ridge downstream of a more amplified trough, which will be the culprit of more active weather later in the week and into the weekend. As a result, mild temperatures will remain in place on both Wednesday and Thursday, followed by an increase in our winds as quasi-zonal 700 mb flow ramps up to 35-40 knots. In-house guidance has 30-40% probabilities of high wind conditions for the usual wind-prone areas starting Wednesday morning before tapering off Thursday night into Friday. While not as impressive as what we have seen in recent, previous events, omega fields continue to show a mountain wave pattern across the Snowy and Laramie Ranges, so will see an increase in our winds during this time at the very least. Ensemble guidance suggests that temperatures will peak in the low to mid-50s west of the Laramie Range, and in the 60s to perhaps 70 degrees east of the I-25 corridor. Thursday is forecast to be our warmest day of the period under warm advection ahead of an advancing cold front that will move across Southern Wyoming and Western Nebraska overnight Thursday into Friday. However if the front and associated surface low trends more progressive, we likely won't warm up as much on Thursday as ensembles are currently showing, as much of our Nebraska counties are showing 50th percentile maximum temperatures in the mid 70s. Friday will feature much cooler temperatures behind the front, with temperatures dropping a good 20-25 degrees relative to Thursday given strong low-level cold air advection in combination with blustery NNW surface flow. As for any beneficial moisture...don't get your hopes up. Current LREF PWAT percentiles are at or below the 50th percentile for Southeastern Wyoming and Western Nebraska through Friday with ensemble mean QPF at or less than 0.1". The only exception are the Snowy and Sierra Madre Ranges where probabilities of exceeding 0.2" of QPF through Saturday afternoon look to be about 60%. Saturday will again feature below-average temperatures primarily in the 30s and 40s which is running around 15-20 degrees below climatological values. Expect temperatures on Sunday to rebound nicely to at or slightly above seasonal values as a weak mid- level ridge will build in from the west. Dry conditions are expected at this time. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1251 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Southwest flow aloft will continue. A weather disturbance and its associated cold front will move into central Wyoming Tuesday morning, producing isolated to scattered rain and snow showers for our terminals. Wyoming TAFS...Scattered clouds from 12000 to 15000 feet will prevail until 01Z, then ceilings will range from 10000 to 12000 feet until late tonight and Tuesday morning, with ceilings likely (70 percent likelihood) becoming near 4000 feet Tuesday morning, and scattered rain and snow showers at Rawlins and Laramie reducing visibilities to 4 miles after 15Z Tuesday, with moderate to high confidence in shower coverage. Winds will gust to 40 knots until 02Z. Nebraska TAFS...Scattered to broken clouds from 12000 to 15000 feet will occur until 15Z, with ceilings most likely (near 70 percent) near 5000 feet after 15Z Tuesday, along with isolated rain showers, 10 to 20 percent coverage, in the vicinity. Winds will gust to 39 knots until 00Z to 03Z. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for WYZ417>419- 430>433. High Wind Warning until 3 PM MDT this afternoon for WYZ110. High Wind Watch until 3 PM MDT this afternoon for WYZ116. NE...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for NEZ434>437. && $$ SHORT TERM...RZ LONG TERM...NB AVIATION...RUBIN  121 FXUS63 KDTX 131852 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 252 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Stretch of warm conditions throughout the work week with daytime temperatures in the 70s each day for most locations. - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms develop tonight. Potential exists for isolated severe storms capable of producing wind gusts to 60 mph and large hail. Locally heavy rainfall also possible. - An active pattern will maintain periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday. Each episode brings the possibility for locally heavy rainfall. - There is a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms Tuesday night, mainly between 8 pm and 2 am. Storms will be capable of producing wind gusts to 60 mph, large hail and isolated tornadoes. && .DISCUSSION... Higher magnitude warmth within breezy southwest wind marking conditions late afternoon. High temperatures again arriving a solid 15 to 20 degrees above normal - mid to upper 70s most locations. General mid level stability will hold into the early evening hours as shortwave upper ridging propagates through, ensuring dry conditions persist into the early evening hours. Attention then turns to two seperate areas of focus for convective development and expansion tonight. Remnant convective cluster evident on water vapor and radar lifting northeast into northern IL now forecast by an increasing number of hi res solutions to maintain some degree of integrity as it ejects across southern lake MI/northern IN. This will occur with the backdrop of another period of nocturnal warm/moist air advection as 850 mb flow strengthens within southwest flow across the warm sector. Forecast now highlights an increasing potential for convective development/expansion within the 00z-06z window as associated ascent works through. Any late evening activity likely to be slightly elevated as nocturnal boundary layer cooling affords a standard stable near surface layer. With that, isolated deeper updrafts plausible given the steepness of lapse rates above the stable layer, with adequate bulk shear for greater organization. This maintains potential for some instances of larger hail and gusty winds, in addition to brief heavy rainfall. Additional convective organization and expansion expected this evening along/north of a frontal boundary extending across central WI. This activity likely to consolidate with time as it spills east/southeast into the early morning hours, but mixed signal yet on both trajectory and scale. Steep mid level lapse rates will maintain a risk for hail with any healthier cores. Latest SPC Day 1 outlook continues to highlight all of Southeast Michigan within a Marginal Risk for severe weather for tonight. The resident airmass remains virtually unchanged heading into Tuesday. Some degree of stability may exist for a portion of the daylight period, pending the coverage and pace of exit of overnight activity. Solid diurnal destabilization likely by afternoon, at least across the south, where MLCAPE pushes 1500+ as temps again climb well into the 70s and dewpoint hovers in the lower 60s. Some evidence of a weak frontal zone or differential heating boundary bisecting the area. This could offer a lower coverage of convection for peak heating. Otherwise, still no evidence of more meaningful forced ascent materializing prior to 00z Tuesday evening. Existing mid level southwest flow ripe with minor perturbations and bouts of greater moist isentropic ascent continue to present a favorable, yet challenging background environment to gauge convective potential locally Tuesday night. There remains strong model evidence for convective initation and expansion to occur in the vicinity of the frontal boundary across northern IL/southern WI and western lower MI Tuesday evening. Very supportive environment will exist for the maintenance and possible upscale growth of this activity into portions of southeast Michigan sometime within the 00z to 04z window. While the nocturnal timing brings lessening instability with time near the surface, MuCape projected to exceed 2000 j/kg. Frontal zone now draped across the Saginaw valley and thumb will offer a greater focus across this region. In fact, noteworthy backed/southeast low level flow at the frontal interface gives pause to the possibility for organized updrafts to rotate. A mix of discreet and multicellular clusters will bring the risk of all hazards - strong winds, large hail and isolated tornadoes. All of Southeast Michigan remains with a Slight Risk for severe weather Tuesday night. Some areas of heavy rainfall also a concern given expectation for efficient rates given high end moisture content /PW near 1.3"/. Mild/moist airmass still entrenched Wednesday and Thursday. Outgoing forecast continues to highlight expectation for a high coverage of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday, but some downward revision in precip chances possible as greater focus may again hold to the south and west during the daylight period. Another nocturnal convective response likely Wed night as moisture transport increases along the nose of the low level jet. Periodic chances for additional showers and thunderstorms lasting into Thursday. Dry and continued mild Friday, then rain chances increase again early next weekend. && .MARINE... Shortwave ridging this afternoon has led to pleasant marine conditions under a modest southwest breeze. Pockets of 25 knot gusts are observed over land, but quickly drop off offshore where profiles are more stable. Attention turns to an upstream cluster of thunderstorms over northern Illinois that will track into southeast Michigan after sunset this evening. These storms will be capable of large hail to an inch, frequent lightning, and isolated gusty winds over 35 knots. This will be the first of several rounds of nocturnal thunderstorms this week as multiple waves of low pressure ripple along a stalled frontal zone. Each round of storms will bring potential for strong to severe storms to the southern half of Lake Huron, Lake St. Clair, and western Lake Erie. The front is forecast to hover around the Saginaw Bay area, with northerly winds emerging north of front and southwest winds for points south. Wind and wave concerns this week will be tied to thunderstorm activity. && .HYDROLOGY... An active pattern will bring periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms tonight through Thursday. Each episode brings the possibility for locally heavy rainfall, particularly where focused areas of thunderstorms develop. Rainfall amounts in excess of half an inch will be possible for a round of rain tonight. Additional rainfall between one and two inches currently forecast to fall between Tuesday and Thursday. While widespread flooding is not expected, some minor flooding of low lying, poor drainage and urban areas along with rises on area rivers are possible. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 110 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 AVIATION... Diurnal mixing expected to support lower VFR ceilings this afternoon- evening with west turning southerly winds gradually diminishing. Active pattern returns tonight as a series of systems cross the Great Lakes. First of this sparks convection over the western Great Lakes this evening with the remnants working across SE MI overnight. Model space is spilt between more northerly tracks (over northern lower MI into the Saginaw Valley) or a more southerly tracks directly across the local area. Trends have been starting to favor the southerly outcomes so have hedged current TAFs in that direction. Initial showers and perhaps a thunderstorm are possible by 01-02Z though main window currently looks to be 03-07Z for widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms. There is a secondary window late early Tuesday morning (08-13Z) for additional upstream decaying convection to roll southeast over the terminal corridor though this carries lower thunderstorm potential. DTW/D21 Convection... Uncertainty remains high tonight in timing and location of convection. There has been a trend toward more southerly convection increasing chances over the airport between 01-05Z. Secondary window for storms early Tuesday morning between roughly 10- 12Z, though this will likely be decaying as it approaches. DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Moderate for ceilings aob 5000 feet this afternoon-evening, high tonight into early Tuesday. * Low to moderate for thunderstorms tonight into early Tuesday morning. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MR MARINE.......MV HYDROLOGY....MR AVIATION.....KDK You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.  513 FXUS65 KBYZ 131853 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 1253 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening with main threat being wind gusts 35 to 45 mph. A few stronger gusts along with small hail and brief heavy rain are possible over SE Montana. - Gusty west to southwest winds (30 to 45 mph) over the western foothills today, diminishing this evening. - Stronger and colder storm system late Wednesday into Friday will bring significantly colder temperatures, high chances (50-90%) for precipitation (including low elevation snow potential Thursday night) and the potential for heavy mountain snow. - Warmer and Dry next Weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Rest of Today through Sunday... This afternoon/evening...Upper level low over ID/W MT will kick more energy over the area this afternoon and evening, producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Any thunderstorms will capable of producing brief gusty winds, while those over SE MT may be able to produce a few 50+ mph gusts along with small hail and brief heavy rainfall. Energy lingers over SE MT well into the evening and slow moving storms there could put down a third to over half an inch of rainfall in a few spots. Other than rain/thunderstorms, the only other impactful weather this afternoon/evening will be gusty winds (30-50mph) over the western foothills that may reach as far east as a Lavina to Columbus. These winds should diminish early this evening. Tuesday looks mainly dry and warmer with zonal flow developing aloft as energy from the synoptic trof to the west splits around our area. Downslope westerly winds will have a warming and drying affect over the region, with temperatures getting back into the mid to upper 60s. Wednesday will be a pre-frontal day as a cold upper low drops southeast out of SW Canada and approaches our area. Ahead of this system downslope winds will increase again along the western foothills with gusts in the 40 to 50 mph range for Livingston, Big Timber, and Harlowton. Expect gusts 20 to 35 mph to be common by afternoon for many areas. The downslope winds will help push afternoon temperatures toward 70 degrees central and east, while increasing cloud cover will hold western zones into the low/mid 60s. The first half of the day will be mainly dry, with shower chances increasing in the afternoon across the western mountains and foothills. With the warm temperatures and increasing dynamics, can't rule out an isolated afternoon thunderstorm for areas from Billings west. Upper low continues to progress southeast Wednesday night into Thursday. Latest models are starting to show a more prominent split with this system as it gets near our area, with the deterministic ECMWF dragging most of the energy with the northern split that would significantly lower our precipitation amounts Thur/Fri. Deterministic GFS is closer to what the models have been showing over the past few days with a split occurring very close to our area with most of the energy taking the southern track putting a good deal of energy over the western half of the forecast area, along with a good low level upslope wind field, thus more precipitation, especially in our mountains. ECMWF EFI does show a shift of tails over the Beartooth/Absaroka for snow/precip on Thursday indicating outlier potential for significant snowfall above the 90th percentile, but the ECMWF and its members are trending drier with this system over the past few runs. The lag built into the NBM will take a bit of time to catch up to recent drier trends in the ECMWF, so the latest NBM guidance remains bullish on precipitation and mountain snowfall. Currently showing around an inch of precipitation in the forecast for all area mountains with more than a foot of snow advertised out of that liquid. Contemplated issuing a Winter Storm Watch for the Crazy and Beartooth/Absaroka mountains with this package, but given the increasing split and in coordination with neighboring offices/WPC elected to hold off one more model run and see if models come to a bit better agreement. Given the heaviest precipitation is Thursday there is still time for a watch to be issued and we will continue to message the potential for precipitation and heavy mountain snow in other products today. Probabilities for a quarter of an inch or more precipitation with this system range from 50-90% over western and central areas, to 20-40% from Rosebud county east. Snow levels trend downward quickly Wednesday into Thursday, dropping from around 7000 feet Wednesday afternoon to around 3500 feet by Thursday afternoon. This brings lower elevation snowfall into play with this system by late in the day Thursday and certainly Thursday night into Friday. Will have to see how the precipitation potential evolves over the next few model runs to get a better handle on how much snow potential lower elevations will have. Current probabilities for 2+ inches of snow are 10% for Billings, 70% Livingston, 40% Lodge Grass, 655 Sheridan, and 10-15% Miles City/Broadus/Baker. Stay tuned if you have outdoor or travel plans Thu-Fri as this system is evolving in the models. Friday looks cool and unsettled. Depending on the behavior of the upper trof there could be lingering precipitation through the day, especially over southern upslope favored areas, or gusty northwest winds could dry things out and it will just be cool and windy. Ridging develops for the weekend with warmer and drier conditions taking hold. Temperatures rebound from the 30s/40s Thur/Fri to the mid to upper 60s by Sunday. Chambers .AVIATION... Another round of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will move through the region this afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms will generally remain east of KBIL. A few stronger storms are possible near the Dakota border, with erratic wind gusts up to 55 kts and heavy rain as the main concerns. Expect localized MVFR conditions with any thunderstorms and the heavier showers. Showers and thunderstorms will lift north and east, exiting the region overnight. Late tonight into Tuesday morning, there is a low chance (20-30%) for fog near KMLS and KBHK. Archer && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 039/066 041/067 040/049 028/047 029/059 034/068 042/071 10/U 11/B 47/O 53/J 21/B 00/U 12/W LVM 034/061 038/060 031/041 021/043 023/054 031/063 037/065 21/N 04/W 89/S 64/J 21/U 01/N 13/W HDN 037/067 037/070 039/053 026/047 024/059 029/069 039/073 21/U 11/B 38/O 64/J 21/B 00/U 12/W MLS 039/065 039/069 041/054 025/042 021/055 028/067 038/072 50/U 11/B 24/O 42/J 11/U 00/U 01/U 4BQ 037/064 038/069 042/060 025/041 021/053 028/066 038/072 10/U 11/U 14/R 73/J 11/B 00/U 01/U BHK 036/064 038/068 040/059 024/039 018/049 024/063 035/069 71/U 11/U 12/R 52/J 11/B 00/U 00/U SHR 031/060 033/066 038/054 022/041 019/052 026/064 034/068 11/U 01/U 19/R 86/J 22/W 00/U 01/U && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings  111 FXUS63 KIND 131858 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN Issued by National Weather Service Louisville KY 258 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 KEY MESSAGES: - Active pattern this week with near daily chances for showers and storms. - Severe weather is a possibility through Tuesday focused mainly across the northwest half of central Indiana. Additional threats for strong to severe storms Wednesday and Saturday. - Warm temperatures expected through Saturday with multiple days in the lower to mid 80s. Record temperatures are possible. && .DISCUSSION (Today through Sunday)... Issued at 258 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Rest of This Afternoon into This Evening... An upper wave, moving in the southwest flow aloft, is generating showers and thunderstorms across Illinois this afternoon. Most if not all of these will remain west of central Indiana. However, still cant rule out a few showers or storms popping up in the unstable atmosphere. Storms across the far northern forecast area could be strong to severe. Overnight tonight through Tuesday night... Thunderstorms generated near the surface front to the north of the area will move southeast overnight into Tuesday morning. Some of these may survive into central Indiana, especially the northeast half of the area. Additional scattered convection may develop Tuesday afternoon, especially north closer to the front. Tuesday night, similar to tonight, convection that develops well north of the could move southeast into the area. Some of the convection from Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night could be severe, mainly across the northern half of the forecast area. Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary threats. Lows tonight in the middle to upper 60s will be near record high minimum temperatures. Highs on Tuesday will depend on any rain as well as sky cover. Drier conditions and lower sky cover could lead to near record highs in the middle 80s, but more rain/sky cover could limit highs to near 80. Wednesday through Saturday... The front will be closer to but still north of the area on Wednesday. With southwest flow continuing aloft, any upper impulse moving through the flow will have the potential to generate scattered convection in an unstable atmosphere. Convection generated by the front to the north could also impact the northern forecast area. Isolated strong to severe convection is possible given expected parameters. Temperatures on Wednesday will depend on sky cover and rain coverage, but for now will go with upper 70s north to middle 80s south. Wednesday night into Thursday, an upper trough will move into the area, providing better forcing. The surface front could move into the area, but there is a decent amount of uncertainty on this. (The NAMs solution of moving the front completely through looks overdone). Will have likely or higher category PoPs all areas at some point Wednesday night into Thursday. Brief upper ridging looks to move in on Friday, providing a dry and warm day. A larger upper trough will move in on Saturday and bring a strong cold front through the area. This will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms. Strong storms are possible, depending on the timing of the front. Sunday and Monday... High pressure will build in and provide quiet weather. Highs will be below normal, with the coldest readings Saturday in the 50s. Lows in the middle to upper 30s will occur Saturday night, so will have to watch for the potential for frost if temperatures trend cooler. && .AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 136 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Impacts: - Low-VFR ceilings this afternoon may briefly fall to MVFR - MVFR CIGs are possible at times after 06Z, at mainly KIND/KLAF - SSW winds gusting to 20-25KT through most of the TAF period - Scattered convection may impact KLAF late today/this evening... with low chances of convection at all terminals after 12Z Tuesday Discussion: Recent MVFR decks have mixed out/lifted to low-VFR over central Indiana terminals...although low chances of high-MVFR ceilings will remain through this evening, especially near any convection after 21Z that will most likely be near KLAF. After 06Z tonight, occasional MVFR is possible at KLAF/KIND. Winds wobbling slightly between southwest and south-southwest through the period will stay breezy to robust, sustained at mainly 10-15KT with gusts up to 20-25KT...and likely stronger flow at KIND Tuesday afternoon. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Within the setup described in the discussion above, near record temperatures are possible at times this week, mainly Tuesday, and Friday. Whether readings get close depends on sky cover and any rain staying away, which keeps confidence lower at this time. Current deterministic model runs are cooler than the records, but the potential exists to get within a few degrees if everything lines up. On Tuesday April 14, Indy's record high is 85, set in 1883. On Friday April 17, Indy's record high is 87, set in 1896. Record high minimum temperatures are also in play at times given the warm and relatively humid airmass. The first opportunity for this comes Monday, when the record high minimum at Indy is 63, set in 2014 and tied in 2018. At the moment, the forecast is for tying that number. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...50 AVIATION...White CLIMATE...Ryan  236 FXUS63 KLSX 131859 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 159 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday night and again Wednesday afternoon into evening. The better chance for severe weather exists on Wednesday. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats each day. - A potent cold front will pass through the region late this week, bringing another chance for strong to severe thunderstorms and an end to the unseasonable warmth. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tuesday Night) Issued at 157 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Water vapor imagery shows an upper-mid level longwave trough over the northwestern third of the CONUS with an upper-low level ridge dominating the remainder of the country. The Mid-Mississippi Valley's weather is being influenced by the northwestern portion of ridge as seen by strong, deep southwest flow throughout the atmospheric column. We're seeing this at the surface in the form of temperatures in the 80s, which is 20 degrees above normal for mid- April. Gulf moisture is also being advected in along the southwesterly flow, as characterized by dewpoints in the 60s. Needless to say, there is an abundance of warmth and moisture in the region. This translates to an abundance of instability as well, which leads us into Tuesday and Wednesday's severe potential. The bottom line for Tuesday is that the potential for severe thunderstorms in our area is low. Despite being located within an open warm sector and an 80% HREF probability of having 2500+ J/kg of SBCAPE in place, a strong capping inversion is expected to keep convective initiation at bay through the afternoon. A lack of any forcing or mid and upper level lift supports at least mostly dry weather as well. Instead, supercells are expected to fire off a dryline in Kansas southward through Texas in the afternoon and become severe as they drive northeast. By the time they reach central Missouri in the evening, daytime instability will be quickly waning and CIN quickly growing. If the mass of thunderstorms is still severe by the time it arrives, the increasingly unfavorable environment it moves into will ensure it won't stay severe for long. If any thunderstorm does remain severe, large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats. A strengthening low-level jet Tuesday night will keep ongoing convection from eroding completely and/or spark new initiation. None of this is expected to be severe, but it may impact the potential for severe thunderstorms on Wednesday especially if it lasts well into the morning. Jaja && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Next Monday) Issued at 157 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 By 1pm Wednesday, the longwave trough currently over the western CONUS will be centered in the High Plains. A jet streak will extend northeastward through the Southern Plains and into the Great Lakes region, skimming our CWA along its extent. Though the best upper level forcing will exist to our northwest, we'll still be in the right entrance region of the jet streak and will be able to take advantage of the more robust upper level support. The same can be said in the mid-levels where forcing increases ahead of an incoming shortwave. In the low-levels, a surface cyclone will be pushing northeast from Nebraska into the Upper Midwest, dragging a cold front into northwestern Missouri to serve as forcing for ascent. This will all make for a much better set-up than Tuesday. The only potentially mitigating factor will be instability. More specifically, how well the boundary layer will recover after Tuesday night's/Wednesday morning's low-level jet driven convection. The latest LREF shows only up to 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE in place by 1pm. This is a much lower value than Tuesday's 2500+ J/kg, but with so much support at all levels, it shouldn't matter. Effective bulk shear will also be in the 35-45 kt range, which is more than enough to support severe weather even given the lower instability. Shear vectors are forecast to be about 45 degrees off of the cold front. This may result in discrete thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds initially before congealing into a line or multi- cell mass. Minor shifts in the bulk shear vectors may change storm mode drastically. More than 45 degrees and supercells will be favored. Less than 45 degrees and a QLCS will likely develop faster with damaging winds being the primary threat. As mentioned, thunderstorms will weaken in the hours after sunset. Two mid-level shortwaves, one in the Upper Midwest and another in the Mid-South, will pass Wednesday night into Thursday, and another low-level jet will ramp up along and ahead of the cold front. These features will offer continued support for ascent, and will keep non- severe convection going until the Mid-South shortwave exits late Thursday. The cold front is not expected to clear the area entirely, but will instead buckle northward as a warm front late Thursday. A lack of cold air behind the front will make its passage and return basically unnoticeable as highs reach the widespread upper 70s and low 80s again Thursday. A much more potent cold front will drive through the region late Friday/early Saturday and will bring a real rush of cool air into the area. Although there's still uncertainty regarding how cool we get, the NBM 75th percentile high temperature forecast for KSTL on Sunday is only 71 degrees. There is another chance of thunderstorms on Friday ahead of the cold front with severe weather possible again. The potential for severe weather will rely on the timing of the cold front, which at this point is still very uncertain. Jaja && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Gusty southwest winds will persist through the TAF period for most locations. Areas outside of central Missouri, northeast Missouri, and west-central Illinois may see a brief reprieve overnight with gusts falling below 20 kts. A southwesterly low-level jet will intensify tonight in our western and northern areas, but the threat of LLWS will depend on if gusts diminish at all in these areas. As mentioned previously, gusts are forecast to persist. However, if this changes then LLWS will be added to the TAFs for tonight. Jaja && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX