427 FXUS62 KRAH 131901 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 300 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 300 PM Monday... * Increased Fire Danger Statement issued for the western Piedmont and Sandhills. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 300 PM Monday... 1) Dry fuels combined with lower humidity and near record heat will promote fire weather concerns through the end of the week. 2) Near record high temperatures are expected Tuesday through Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... As of 300 PM Monday... KEY MESSAGE 1... Dry fuels combined with lower humidity and near record heat will promote fire weather concerns through the end of the week. The anomalous mid-level ridge will amplify along the eastern seaboard through the end of the week. Associated subsidence over the southeast will promote continued dry conditions at least through Saturday. Precipitation as a percentage of normal over the past 30 days is as low as 5 to 25% for portions of our area worsening the elevated drought conditions. While the combination of RH and wind will not reach typical IFD criteria today or through this week, given the anomalously dry fuels and near-record heat, the NC Forest Service has requested additional messaging along with their current state-wide burn ban. As such, an IFD has been issued for the western Piedmont/Sandhills for the rest of today where gusts will be strongest. An additional IFD for the same footprint will be likely issued this evening for Tuesday. A possible expansion eastward to the coast may be needed from Wednesday through the end of the week, but further details to come. KEY MESSAGE 2... Near record high temperatures are expected Tuesday through Saturday. Subtropical ridging will persist over the Southeast US for much of the period from Tuesday through Saturday. At the surface, a Bermuda High will bring warm southwesterly flow to central NC during this time. 1000-850 mb thicknesses are modeled to be around the 95th percentile for this time of year, and forecast maximum and minimum temperatures get close to or reach record highs each day. Tuesday's forecast highs are in the upper-80s with mostly lower-90s each day after that, which is around 20 degrees above normal. Some mid-90s will even be possible on Saturday, which looks to be the hottest day. For reference, this would get close to the hottest temperatures ever recorded any day in the month of April. See the climate section below for more details. Forecast lows are also quite mild, in the lower-to-mid-60s, which is 10-20 degrees above normal. Fortunately, humidity looks tolerable, with dew points bottoming out in the lower- to-mid-50s each day, perhaps even some upper-40s especially in the west. So heat indices will be about 2-4 degrees cooler than the actual air temperatures each day. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 145 PM Monday... High confidence of mainly VFR conditions through the 24 hour TAF period. High pressure at the surface and aloft will result in generally fair weather with periods of high and mid cloudiness through 18Z Tuesday. A south to southwesterly flow around the high pressure system will continue through the period. Gusty south to southwest winds this afternoon at 8 to 14kts with gusts of 18 to 24 hours this afternoon will become southwest at 6 to 10kts tonight. Southwest winds will pick back up on Tuesday at 8 to 12 kts with gusts of 16 to 20 kts. Outlook: Generally fair weather with VFR conditions are expected into the first part of the weekend as warm air circulates around high pressure just off the Southeast coast. -Blaes && .CLIMATE... All-Time Records for April KGSO: 95 on 4/28/1915 KRDU: 95 on 4/23/1980 and 4/28/1896 KFAY: 96 on 4/12/1930 Record High Temperatures: April 13: KGSO: 88/1930 KRDU: 89/1922 KFAY: 92/1916 April 14: KGSO: 90/1922 KRDU: 91/1941 KFAY: 93/1922 April 15: KGSO: 90/2006 KRDU: 92/1941 KFAY: 95/2006 April 16: KGSO: 88/2002 KRDU: 92/1941 KFAY: 94/2006 April 17: KGSO: 90/1967 KRDU: 93/1896 KFAY: 92/1941 April 18: KGSO: 90/1976 KRDU: 95/1896 KFAY: 93/1941 April 19: KFAY: 94/1941 Record High Minimum Temperatures: April 13: KGSO: 61/2019 KRDU: 66/1930 April 15: KGSO: 65/2006 KRDU: 64/1993 April 16: KGSO: 66/2006 KRDU: 64/1912 KFAY: 69/1934 April 17: KGSO: 63/2002 KRDU: 67/1896 KFAY: 66/1921 April 18: KGSO: 66/1909 KRDU: 63/1941 KFAY: 67/2002 April 19: KRDU: 67/1896 KFAY: 67/2002 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Luchetti/Danco AVIATION...Blaes  197 FXUS63 KGRR 131902 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 302 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe thunderstorm and flood potential tonight and late Tuesday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 302 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 - Severe thunderstorm and flood potential tonight and late Tuesday This evening, multiple clusters of storms are favored to develop across Wisconsin, northern Illinois, and Lower Michigan, with low- mid level wind fields and low-level warm/moist advection increasing ahead of a shortwave trough. HREF mean MUCAPE will be around 1000-1500 J/kg with effective bulk shear around 40 knots. Model sounding thermodynamic and kinematic profiles are favorable for some hail- producing cells and scattered swaths of damaging winds especially in the first half of the night, including in southwest Michigan after 6 PM if the storms currently in Illinois maintain strength and organization. Tornado potential is relatively low but not zero, as there could be some curvature in the low-level hodographs and 0-3 km shear near 30 knots, but surface stabilization by later in the evening may tend to be the limiting factor. Tuesday evening, another wave of convection is favored with supercells, clusters, and/or lines in a more potent thermodynamic and kinematic environment. Mean HREF MUCAPE is between 1500-2500 J/kg and curved low-level hodographs and longer upper-level tails (respectable low-level and deep-layer shear) are expected. HREF Significant Tornado Parameter mean is about 2-3 during south of M-46 during the evening before the surface begins stabilizing a couple hours after sunset. Diffuse mesoscale warm-frontogenesis at the surface may also be occurring over the area during the evening. Hail and wind are both expected to be primary hazards. For information on the increasing flood threat, see the Hydrology section below. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 205 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 202 Southwest Lower Michigan is in southwest flow at 18z, with a lifting cloud deck generated from last night's rainfall. The ceilings are in the process of lifting from mainly MVFR to VFR. We await additional showers and thunderstorms that will spread in tonight, likely affecting most of if not all of the TAF sites. Confidence is not high in how storms evolve though. We will see a repeat of lower clouds settling in once again with the rain and cooling of the nighttime. The lower ceilings will persist into the morning hours of Tuesday before trying to lift to VFR once again midday Tuesday. && .MARINE... Issued at 302 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Areas of dense fog in the nearshore will likely persist into tonight and may or may not dissipate after thunderstorms pass through tonight. After a slight lull this evening, hazardous winds and waves for small craft are expected through Tuesday. Thunderstorms, possibly severe thunderstorms with hail and wind, are possible over Lake Michigan this evening/tonight and Tuesday evening/night. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 302 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 The further north you go in the Lower Peninsula, the more significant the flooding situation becomes. Around an inch of rain fell across much of the area along and north of the Muskegon River watershed over the weekend, with a much heavier swath of 2-4 inches across the Manistee River watershed and the headwaters portions of the Muskegon basin. Coming on the heels of one of the wettest springs on record so far, and in the midst of a significantly active (and wet) ongoing weather pattern, the water that's already on the ground is going to produce renewed flooding on the Muskegon River (and many others rivers further north as well). With another 2-3" of rain over the next few days in the Muskegon, we're now expecting the most significant flood on the Muskegon River since the flood of 2018. If the next few days of rains overperform (which is entirely possible), the forecasted crests will go even higher. If you live near the Muskegon river, now is the time to prepare for significant flooding. Meanwhile, further south, conditions in the Grand River basin are in slightly better shape, although water is still high from all of the recent rains. We've finally dropped below stage at all locations in the basin, but that trend will soon reverse as water levels start to climb again throughout the week. With an additional 2-3" of rain expected in this area as well, it's beginning to look like the region will generally repeat the flood levels experienced last week. In addition to the river flooding, some of the thunderstorms we're expecting over the next few days could be very slow moving over the same areas repeatedly. If this happens, some localized rain totals of 4+ inches are possible in the next few days. If this happens over one of the urban areas, significant fast- developing urban flooding is possible. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for MIZ037>040-043>046- 050>052. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for LMZ844>849. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ844>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...CAS AVIATION...Duke MARINE...CAS HYDROLOGY...AMD  222 FXUS61 KCTP 131902 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 302 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Special Weather Statement for an elevated risk of rapid wildfire spread may be need again for late this morning and this afternoon across Southern PA. * Increased wind gusts by a few knots for this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon as a few upper level disturbance as associated LLVL wind maxes move across New York. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Elevated risk of wildfire spread will be focused across southern PA once again today. 2) Another impressive warm up begins today and continues through the week; near- record warmth on tap for Wednesday and Thursday. 3) Several periods of showers and thunderstorms expected during the upcoming week, with the greatest amount of rainfall likely occurring across northern and western PA. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Elevated risk of wildfire spread will be focused across southern PA once again today. After a few light showers drifted across the region this morning, a mostly dry afternoon is underway.Subtle ridging aloft and low-mid level speed divergence will help suppress most of the showers for the afternoon, with warm temps and a gusty SW wind in the mid 20s to low 30s (KTS). Min RHs in the 30s (Percent) will occur across the South (where the worst drought conditions and driest fine fuels persist). Although Min RHs will be nearly 10 percent higher than Sunday, the other elements will still be conducive to rapid fire spread where ignition occurs. A Special Weather Statement remains in effect until 7PM for much of the southern third of the CWA. ---------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 2: Warm up begins today and continues through the week; near-record warmth on tap for Wednesday and Thursday. LLVL warm advection kicks in today with a moderately gusty southerly flow ushering in a prolonged period of much warmer than normal temperatures through the upcoming week. On the large-scale, our ensemble prediction systems are in good agreement showing a mean upper-level trough across the western CONUS, with downstream upper ridging taking hold from the Gulf states up the eastern seaboard. This will bring a notable warming trend, with daily highs ranging from the 70s-mid 80s across central PA from Tuesday onward. The latest forecast brings near-record temperatures across the region Wednesday morning through Friday morning, with lows both Wednesday and Thursday morning forecast to be warmer than our average highs this time of year (or an incredible 25 to 30 deg F above normal). Highs in the 70s and 80s will accompany lows in the 50s and 60s. Dewpoints will start to approach the 60F mark, so it will feel a bit humid but not overly uncomfortable. ---------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 3: Several periods of showers and thunderstorms expected during the upcoming week, especially in the north and west. In general for the workweek ahead, the storm track will run from SW to NE across the Great Lakes, with several waves of low pressure drifting into Ontario, CA. A frontal boundary will set up generally west to east across New York and keep unsettled weather in place across northwest PA in particular. LLJ will lift across far northern PA western NY this morning, keeping the main focus for any significant convection generally north/west of the region today. For Tuesday, SPC has expanded the MRGL Risk for SVR TSRA over much of the Northern Half of PA for the afternoon and evening as a 35 to 40 kt WSW LLVL wind max advects across that part of the state during peak heating with broad upper level diffluence noted in the westerly flow AOA 500 mb on the southerly flank of an upper level jet max. If you have outdoor plans this week, continue to monitor the forecast - no need to cancel anything yet! The probability for showers/storms will be highest in northwest PA. Locations that have been wet lately will continue to see more rain, while drought- stricken locations across the southeast part of our CWA will see less rainfall. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Widespread VFR conditions as of 18Z are likely to continue throughout much of the evening hours. Widely scattered showers are mainly expected across portions of northwestern Pennsylvania in the near-term; however, low-level dry air has trended slightly drier than recent model guidance. Given these observational trends have pulled back mentions this afternoon compared to previous TAF sets; however, there remains a low (~20%) chance of -SHRA at JST through 00Z Tuesday with slightly higher chances at BFD. Increasing low-level moisture overnight (mainly focused in the 06-12Z Tuesday timeframe will bring about increasing odds for sub-VFR conditions at BFD/JST. Recent HREF paints highest probabilities in sub-VFR conditions at BFD where recent model guidance does begin to tank ceilings towards IFR/LIFR thresholds between 08-12Z. The main driver for IFR/LIFR conditions at BFD will be if there is any rainfall, which would bring increasing odds for low cloud development. Recent GLAMP guidance has latched onto a light rain shower solution, so have come closer in line with this thinking for the 18Z TAF cycle. Fog formation at MDT/LNS (~08-12Z Tuesday) looks slightly less likely than previous packages; however, have retained chances with low (~30%) confidence. A better chance for rain comes to central Pennsylvania closer to 12Z Tuesday and into the end of the TAF package with slightly better forcing and moisture returns, especially across the northwestern terminals (BFD/JST/UNV/IPT) after sunrise. Rain is generally expected to be light and not bring a lot in the way of restrictions but have included mentions for this rain potential towards the end of the TAF package. Outlook... Wed-Thu...VFR most of the time, but brief restrictions possible in hit and miss showers and thunderstorms, mainly across the north and west. Fri...Restrictions possible early, then improving to VFR in the afternoon. Sat...Restrictions in SHRA early, drier conditions late. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Banghoff KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Banghoff DISCUSSION...Lambert/Banghoff AVIATION...Beaty  358 FXUS63 KMQT 131904 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 304 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of showers and thunderstorms lifts into the UP tonight through early Tuesday morning. There is a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms across the stateline border counties, although the chances seem to be decreasing as most convection is now predicted south of us in Wisconsin. - Any heavy rainfall received will exacerbate ongoing flooding concerns. There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 4) for flash flooding with tonight into early Tuesday morning's rainfall event. - A prolonged period of well above freezing temperatures and higher dewpoints will bring increased snowmelt. This, combined with periods of potentially heavy rainfall and thunderstorms, will accelerate river rises and lead to ponding of water in areas with poor drainage. A Flood Watch remains in place for all of Upper Michigan through Wednesday morning && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 155 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Satellite imagery shows low-level cloud cover remaining across most of the U.P. early this afternoon as very weak high pressure ridging moves through the area. The low-level clouds are thanks to the warm temperatures and dewpoints moving over the remaining melting snowpack, which has caused some fog problems since yesterday afternoon. However, with sunshine now starting to show itself in southern Menominee County this afternoon, temperatures down that way are rising into the lower 60s. Thinking the 50s to lower 60s will be seen across the area by late this afternoon, with the warmest temperatures in the south central as the cloud cover slowly gives way to sunshine. That being said, another round of rainfall is expected to move through the U.P. tonight through early Tuesday morning. Thankfully for flooding and severe weather purposes, it looks like most of the rainfall and severe weather potential has shifted south of the area into Wisconsin over the past 24 hours. Thus, lower rainfall amounts are generally expected in comparison to 24 hours, as well as the threat being lowered for severe weather. That being said, we could see some spots get to around half an inch of liquid, with maybe an isolated spot or two getting up to 1 inch if some heavier rainfall hangs out for a couple of hours; the heaviest rainfall is still expected in the south central where flooding was and still is being seen from yesterday to now. As of right now, the latest HREF still brings a 10 to 40% chance of greater than 1" of rainfall tonight into Tuesday morning in the interior west, south central, and east, with the highest chances in the south central and interior west. Should the rainier solutions play out, we may see flooding exacerbated over these areas as US-2 and US-41 continue to have water flowing over them in northern Menominee County. In the low (5% or less) chance that we see severe weather, expect damaging hail followed by severe winds. However, with CAMs bringing convection further south, thinking the un-worked airflow into convection going over the south central tonight will be limited, and thus so should the severe weather threat; the area where the chance for severe weather is greatest is Menominee County. Behind the convection tonight into early Tuesday morning, expect a period of generally drier weather conditions as weak ridging builds in from northern Ontario Tuesday through Wednesday. Hopefully the slightly cooler air from northern Ontario and drier conditions will help to reduce the flooding risk across the area for the rest of this week. That being said, a weak shortwave low moving through the Upper Midwest could bring additional showers and thunderstorms to the U.P. late Tuesday into Tuesday night; whether this shortwave brings precipitation into the U.P. or not will depend on the strength of the ridging from northern Ontario. Another shortwave low moving through the Upper Midwest could bring additional rain showers and thunderstorms to the area around the Thursday time period, although with medium range guidance weakening the strength of this shortwave recently, it may only graze the south as it potentially moves through Lower Michigan; again, it will depend on the strength of the remnant high pressure ridging from northern Ontario. The warmest conditions of the weak move in on Friday as a cold air from northern Canada causes a robust cold front to develop across the central CONUS late this week. With PWATs looking to rapidly increase to around 1 inch in the warm sector via Gulf air ahead of the cold front, the NBM brings up to a 90% chance for temperatures greater than 70 to the western half of the U.P. as dewpoints have a 20 to 50% chance of exceeding 50 degrees (highest chances in the south central and interior west). Combined with intensifying southerly winds, this becomes a recipe for accelerating snowmelt on the snowpack that we have left across the area. Now, where guidance diverges for this week is whether or not a shortwave low lifts through the area before and/or after the arrival of the cold front. Expect higher rain totals if a shortwave rolls through the area before the cold front moves through, as the cold front could bring additional showers and storms across the area into early this weekend. However, if a shortwave low rolls through the area immediately behind the cold front (like the latest deterministic Euro is suggesting), then the western half of the U.P. may be in for a significant wet snowfall event. Therefore, while the confidence is low at this time, we will keep an eye out to see if model guidance continues to converge on a solution. Regardless, there is fairly good agreement that colder temperatures and at the very least light snowfall will be seen over the northwest to west wind snow belts behind the cold front to end the weekend. Expect a transition to more normal temperatures early next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 142 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Fog, dense at times, and low stratus will continue to impact the TAF sites through the forecast period. IWD and CMX will be mainly MVFR this afternoon. Moist air interacting with the snowpack and upslope flow will continue to result in LIFR and VLIFR at SAW. Showers are also expected to overspread the area tonight, an isolated thunderstorm is also possible. Rainfall, in addition to overnight cooling will help to reinforce the low level moisture with widespread IFR and LIFR developing overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 212 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Light winds of generally 20 knots or less continue through the rest of the workweek as shortwave lows move through the area and bring showers and storms to Lake Superior occasionally between tonight and Thursday. Weak high pressure ridging moving through Tuesday through Wednesday may keep the lake dry, but confidence is low at this point as the precipitation chances will be dependent on the strength of the ridging. Nevertheless, here are the time periods where thunderstorm activity is possible over Lake Superior: tonight/early Tuesday, and Thursday. That being said, the chance for rain showers and thunderstorms on Thursday remains low as the shortwave currently looks to lift too far to the south to impact Lake Superior. In addition to the winds and rain/storm chances, we may see fog form over Lake Superior a few times throughout the week; indeed, marine dense fog is looking increasingly likely tonight and may warrant a Marine Dense Fog Advisory in the near future. The main pattern shift for the period looks to come late this week through this weekend as a cold front approaches from the central CONUS. Expect increasing airflow from the Gulf ahead of the cold front to intensify winds from the south and southeast Friday, with over a 30% chance (highest over the open waters of the east according to the NBM) of increasing to gales of at least 34 knots by Friday night before the cold front moves through the lake around the Saturday time period. Behind the cold front, as the strong cold air advection improves mixing of the higher winds aloft to the sfc, expect the winds to become northwesterly as gale chances increase up to 50% late in the day through Saturday night. In addition to the winds, some thunderstorms may be seen ahead of and along the cold front late Friday into Saturday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 304 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 In response to the ongoing snowmelt and heavy rainfall that occurred yesterday, river rises and flooding of low-lying areas are expected/are occurring across Upper Michigan, particularly over the south central where rainfall up to 4 inches fell, causing inundation over several roadways (including US-2/US-41) even through today. While much of the area near Wisconsin lost the entirety of their snowpack yesterday through last night, several inches to over a foot(!) of SWE remains over the Keweenaw and higher elevations of the north central U.P., as well as portions of the eastern U.P. upslope from Lake Superior over the northwest wind belts. Thus, while flooding concerns look to start dwindling over the areas near Wisconsin after Tuesday, expect continued snowmelt over the remaining areas to continue river rises over those areas with or downbasin from an area with notable snowpack remaining. Because of this and the rainfall chances expected through the rest of this week (including tonight, which I will touch on in the next paragraph), river flooding to bankfull conditions are being seen across several rivers across Upper Michigan. Starting with the Black River near Bessemer, the quick loss of snowpack with the rainfall yesterday has created Minor Flooding conditions which are forecasted to continue until Tuesday; bankfull conditions for the Black River look to continue until Tuesday night. Moving over to the Sturgeon River at Alston, Minor Flooding is currently being realized; with plenty of snowpack left to melt, expect the river levels to slowly rise the rest of this week into early this weekend. The high river levels at Alston and high flow at Prickett Dam may also bring elevated river levels to Chassell later this week; we will continue to monitor the local observations over there and issue products accordingly should bankfull and/or floodstage be achieved along the Sturgeon River at Chassell. Moving along to the Paint River at Crystal Falls, Moderate Flooding is expected starting late Tuesday as we move into Minor Flood Stage this evening. While not quite looking to get into Major Flood Stage, river heights are currently expected to get up to 8.5", which does start to approach the River Flood of Record. Moving into the Michigamme River basin, some bankfull conditions to Minor River Flooding looks possible at Bangston Bridge and Witch Lake late this week as the snowmelt in the basin progressively melts and increases flows with time. As for the Ford River, we are currently flirting with bankfull conditions this afternoon and could go over tonight given the chances for rainfall (some potentially heavy at times). Moving over to the Escanaba River, bankfull to Minor River Flood conditions are expected over the Middle Branch at Humboldt and the Eastern Branch at Gwinn. Given the recent call with one of the dam operators in Escanaba about the high flows, will continue to keep an eye on the snowmelt in the north central as rainfall moving through tonight could help to push- up cfs to hazardous levels. As for the Sturgeon River (Delta County) at Nahma Junction, the recent heavy rainfall and snowmelt has caused river levels to exceed bankfull; I'd be shocked if the river doesn't go into Minor Flood Stage shortly as even the HEFS shows the river at about 100% for getting into Minor Flood Stage. As for the Manistique River, the increasing snowmelt and heavy rainfall recently (and potentially tonight) could bring above bankfull river levels, potentially causing ponding of water and inundation in low- lying areas near the river Tuesday and beyond; a Flood Advisory may need to be issued for this river's area of influence in the future. One more thing worth mentioning: while the flooding threat looks to progressively decrease in the areas near Wisconsin this week, with model guidance suggesting another round of rain showers and thunderstorms moving (mainly) through the south central tonight into early Tuesday morning, flooding concerns may be significantly increased as the area is still inundated from the previous rainfall and snowmelt. As of now, the south central has up to a 40% chance of receiving over an inch of liquid tonight. With the rainfall potentially being a torrential downpour at times, flooding along the US-2/US-41 corridor between Iron Mountain and Escanaba may worsen; additional roadways and areas may be inundated as the water within in the low-lying areas increases in height. Therefore, a Flood Warning may need to be re-issued for the southeastern Dickinson, northern Menominee, and western Delta county area once again this evening as the rain showers and thunderstorms begin to make there way into the U.P. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for MIZ001>007-009>014- 084-085. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TAP AVIATION...NL MARINE...TAP HYDROLOGY...TAP  646 FXUS65 KPUB 131904 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 104 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Critical fire weather conditions expected tomorrow, and again Thursday. - Snow showers expand in coverage tonight across the mountains and persist through Tuesday. - Additional storm system arrives for the end of the week, bringing cooler temperatures and additional precipitation chances. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 101 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Tonight: Monday night brings active weather for some and quieter weather to others as a storm system approaches south central and southeastern Colorado. A trough will be approaching the region overnight, bringing an increase in both forcing and moisture. With orographic forcing rising, and the uptick in moisture, snow showers are expected along the mountains, with the greatest coverage of snow along the San Juan Mountains given more favorable wind orientation. While the valleys are anticipated to remain dry, some spillage across the valleys can't be ruled out, especially for the upper Arkansas River Valley. Elsewhere, dry conditions are expected. Overnight temperatures will remain above seasonal values with at least weak downsloping winds in place and some cloud cover. With that said, the plains will fall into the 40s, with pockets in the upper 30s, the valleys into the 30s, and the mountains into the upper 10s to 20s. Tomorrow: Heading into Tuesday, active weather continues, with snow for some and fire weather concerns for others. The aforementioned trough will be pushing over south central and southeastern Colorado during this period, though will be shearing out/weakening as it does so. Even so, forcing will remain heightened. While forcing will remained heightened, moisture will start to lessen, especially across the plains as a dry slot advects across this localized area. With that all said, snow showers will persist along the mountains, though will start to lessen in coverage during the later part of the afternoon as the moisture decreases. Dry conditions continue to prevail elsewhere. The exception to this may be across the Pikes Peak region where spillage of showers off the higher terrain will be possible as the trough pushes eastward. Any precipitation from these showers would be minimal at best though, as dry air at the surface limits subcloud layer rainfall. In addition to all of that, fire weather will be a concern across the plains. As winds increase from diurnal mixing, and that aforementioned dry slot starts pushing into the area, conditions are expected to become favorable for fires, with winds gusting to 40 mph and humidity values tanking to around 13 percent. Looking at temperatures, another warm day is in store for the region as downsloping winds develop. Highs for the plains will rise into the upper 60s to low 80s, the valleys into the 50s, and the mountains into the upper 20s to 40s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 101 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Tuesday Night - Wednesday: For the midweek timeframe, a brief period of quieter weather is expected for south central and southeastern Colorado. The wave from Tuesday will be exiting the area Tuesday night and east by Wednesday. With forcing and moisture decreasing on the backside of the wave, lingering showers across the mountains Tuesday evening are expected to dissipate overnight, with dry conditions then prevailing areawide through Wednesday. Along with that, additional showers can't be ruled out along the Palmer Divide as a weak cold front is pulled southward early Tuesday evening, though confidence in shower development is low (20-30%) at this time. Beyond all of that, breezy, though lighter, winds are anticipated, with partly cloudy skies Tuesday night becoming mostly clear through Wednesday. As for temperatures, values will be more seasonal overnight, and slightly above seasonal highs for Wednesday, even despite the cold front passage Tuesday evening. Thursday - Sunday: For the rest of the long term period, active weather makes a return to south central and southeastern Colorado. Synoptically, another trough will approach the region Thursday, push across Friday through Saturday, with ridging returning for Sunday. Overall, confidence is medium to high (60-70%) in this broader pattern, but there are still finer details that will need to be ironed out in the coming days. Regardless though, this pattern may bring another day of fire weather conditions Thursday as winds increase ahead of the system. Then for the end of the week and start of the weekend, precipitation chances increase, especially for the mountains. There is even potential for snow at lower elevations, though this is one of those finer details that is still a bit murky at this time, and should become more clear over the next 2 to 3 days. Dry conditions then return for the end of the weekend areawide. Beyond all of that, winds will remain breezy, especially Thursday and Friday, with at least partly cloudy skies expected. Temperatures during this period will fluctuate a bit, with above seasonal values Thursday, then cooling significantly Friday and Saturday as the storm system passes, and then slowing warming again Sunday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1122 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 KCOS, KPUB, and KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Winds are expected to become gusty at the start of this TAF period, with gusts to 30 knots expected at all three TAF sites. As diurnal mixing stops this evening, winds are expected to lessen some, though will remain around 10-12 knots. Otherwise, dry conditions with pockets of mid to high level clouds is expected through this TAF period. With that said, KALS may be impacted from showers pushing off of the surrounding higher terrain this evening. Biggest impacts from these showers may be brief reductions in visibility. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ220>222- 224>237. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Tuesday for COZ227>237. && $$ SHORT TERM...SIMCOE LONG TERM...SIMCOE AVIATION...SIMCOE  551 FXUS61 KBTV 131904 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 304 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 303 PM EDT Monday... Removed wind advisory and made minor tweaks to temperatures and timing of precip through midweek. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 303 PM EDT Monday... 1. Showers with embedded thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday with a couple of stronger storms possible, mainly south of Route 4. 2. Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected Wednesday and Thursday as boundary remains draped across our forecast area. 3. A more amplified weather pattern will lead to mainly dry and warm conditions early in the weekend, followed by a round of widespread showers and a sharply cooler period Sunday night into Monday. && .DISCUSSION... As of 303 PM EDT Monday... KEY MESSAGE 1: The forecast challenge is amount of clearing and associated sfc heating/instability that can develop on Tues. GOES-19 water vapor imagery shows compact s/w energy moving along the International Border this aftn, while large area of subsidence/dry air aloft is located over the central Great Lake and approaching the SLV. As this moves overhead tonight, expect lowering cloud levels with some patchy fog possible over the northern Dack Valleys. Lows generally in the mid 40s to mid 50s tonight. For Tuesday our s/w energy of interest is currently located over central IA with developing lightning over northern IL/WI. This energy wl quickly move eastward in the fast 700-500mb flow aloft and being located over the eastern Great Lakes by 12z Tues. Upstream satl imagery shows a rather messy warm sector in regards to plenty of clouds and feel this could influence our sfc heating/instability acrs our cwa on Tues. Weak sfc low pres is expected to travel along boundary draped near the International Border on Tues with very warm 925mb to 850mb thermal profiles, but soundings low clouds stuck under the inversion in the morning and mid/upper lvl convective debris clouds developing by early aftn, which wl probably limit sfc heating. HREF shows the greatest potential for sfc based CAPE profiles >500 J/kg south of a SLK to LEB line of 40 to 60%, with highest potential mainly south of Route 4. Meanwhile, the probability of 0 to 6 km shear >50 knots is 80 to 100% near the International Border, indicating strongest winds are north and best deep layer instability is south. NAM 12KM/NAM 3KM solutions are the most aggressive with sfc/mu CAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg into our central/southern cwa, while HRRR/WRF NSSL and RAP are <500 J/kg. This wl become a nowcasting scenario on Tuesday, watching if clouds can dissipate and timing of boundary crossing our cwa for determining how robust convection can develop. For now a few stronger storms are possible mainly Rutland/Windsor counties, but feel greatest action wl be south of our cwa. The latest SPC day2 outlook continues to place part of our cwa in a Marginal Risk (1 out of 5). Temps are very challenging on Tues as 925mb temps would suggest highs well into the mid 70s to lower 80s, but clouds and precip with sharpening boundary wl have significant impacts on highs. Have mid 60s SLV to near 80F VSF. KEY MESSAGE 2: An active pattern is expected for Weds and Thurs as boundary remains draped acrs our cwa with multiple s/w's riding in the westerly flow aloft producing additional chcs for precip. Boundary position and clouds wl have significant impact on temps and sfc instability for both Weds/Thurs. Latest trends indicate additional s/w energy arriving acrs our western cwa by 15z with some instability possible acrs our central/southern fa. Clouds and precip wl impact thermal profiles and associated thermal dynamics. Any stronger/deeper convection wl have the potential to produce localized heavy downpours, especially with pw values approaching 1.5" or 2 to 3 std above normal on Weds. Similar type temp profile as Tuesday with greatest probability of mid 70s acrs Rutland/Windsor counties, with coolest air over the northern SLV/CPV and parts of the NEK. Little change in the large scale synoptic pattern is anticipated on Thursday, as additional s/w dynamics and moisture in the westerly 700 to 500mb flow impacts our cwa. Additional showers with embedded storms are expected, with some localized heavy downpours possible. As always, the instability wl be driving factor on how strong storms can become, but progged 925mb temps are very warm again with values in the 14-18C range. If sun develops highs easily in the 70s, but if clouds prevail with occasional showers, temps mostly hold in the upper 50s to mid 60s. KEY MESSAGE 3: The large scale pattern for Friday shows anticyclonic flow building in while low level temperatures remain well above normal (still near the 90th percentile for 850 millibar temperatures during the afternoon). There is some uncertainty in the position of the incoming ridge and how much northerly flow develops, so temperatures in northern valleys could trend lower. A scenario with low level westerly rather than northerly flow will lead to a warmer day by several degrees (such as a high near 70 rather than low 60s). Said scenario also would lead to some instability (highest values in the cluster mean are near or above 500 J/kg). Therefore, the slight chance of thunder currently indicated in southern portions of Vermont for Friday afternoon looks reasonable. That being said, with the ridging expected and lack of a trigger for showers, precipitation chances should become low from Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon. Think the ensemble probabilities of rain, about 25-50% through this period, are a bit high relative to forecaster thinking. Probabilities of 0.1" or greater, in the 10 to 15% range for most locations, seems like a better estimate of actual rain chances. Widespread showers then are on track to approach the area from the west late Saturday into Sunday in advance of a well defined cold front. A primary low pressure system will far to our northwest; some indications exist that a weak secondary low could develop along the front. Regardless, a heavy rainfall is not expected with even the 90th percentile 24 hour QPF in ensemble guidance below 1" at this time. There is only a weak signal for thunderstorms in machine learning statistical guidance, which would only occur with a slower frontal timing. Better instability will likely be well to our south ahead of the front, and most likely timing seems to be lined up more in the overnight timeframe, limiting potential for surface instability. Temperatures Sunday are highly uncertain due to differences in timing of the anticipated cold front and degree of cooling in its wake. With a slower passage, there is some potential for warm conditions again, although less likely than on Friday or Saturday. By Monday a much colder air mass will likely arrive as a secondary cold front pushes through Sunday night. Any precipitation could be in the form of elevationally dependent snow showers, as 925 millibar northwesterly flow comes with temperatures plunging below the 25th percentile at around -1 to -3 Celsius. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 18Z Tuesday...An area of showers well ahead of a weak cold front is currently moving across the airspace. Note that a belt of about 30 to 40 knots southwest winds about 2 to 4 kft above ground level is helping limit precipitation at PBG and BTV. Associated westerly low level wind shear will be present at most terminals through 23Z to 01Z. Most of the shower activity will clear the airspace by that timeframe. Greatest chances of these showers producing MVFR conditions is at EFK along with MSS and SLK, where ongoing showers have been persistent and moderate at times. After departing, another round of widespread showers will likely enter the airspace tomorrow after 12Z, as winds shift back to southerly ahead of another wave of low pressure. The gusty south-southwest winds present through this evening will briefly trend northerly overnight and become light by 06Z. With regards to IFR chances, MSS and SLK have had ceilings lower a little faster than model guidance had suggested, consistent with upstream observations. As such, some IFR conditions are expected at times now through 00Z. At SLK, low ceilings are more likely to linger overnight. Patchy fog is also possible if clouds scatter. Elsewhere, ceilings will likely lower into the MVFR range with perhaps brief IFR conditions at EFK; other sites probabilities of IFR ceilings is less than 30%. Outlook... Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA. Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Friday: VFR/MVFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA. Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .EQUIPMENT... The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service. This site is not serviced by the NWS. An estimated return to service is May 1st. Please contact us if you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational forecast. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Taber DISCUSSION...Taber/Kutikoff AVIATION...Kutikoff EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV  353 FXUS66 KOTX 131908 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1208 PM PDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light to moderate rains Monday for North Idaho and southeastern Washington. - A robust cold front to deliver valley rain, mountain snow, and gusty winds Tuesday into Wednesday. && .SYNOPSIS... Chances for showers and afternoon thunderstorms continue through Sunday. Areas of continue today for the Idaho Panhandle and southeastern WA. A cold front passage Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday will bring additional light rain in the lowlands, mountain snow, and breezy to windy conditions. Some snow be found in the lowlands on the tail end of that system heading into Thursday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Today and tonight: The Inland NW will remain in an active and fast westerly flow with continue chances for rain, along with breezy conditions and lingering t-storm chances. A deformation axis over the eastern third of WA and ID will continue to be the main focus for precipitation today. That feature gradually shifts east through the period, then start to move out. The steadier rain potential remains over southeast WA and ID, shifting toward NE WA and ID Panhandle this evening and waning overnight. Other precipitation chances continue at the Cascade crest. The best chance for wetting rains will be over Idaho, especially the central and southern Panhandle. Central WA will be largely dry. Afternoon instability will bring a chance for embedded t-storms over NE WA and north ID, with mainly locally heavy rain, gusty winds and small hail. Some light snow is possible int eh mountains, especially the Cascade crest, but amounts are expected to be less than an inch. Lastly winds of 10-20 mph with gusts of 20-30 mph are forecast. Locally stronger gusts are possible near the Waterville Plateau and near the Blue Mountains. Highs will be in the upper 50s and 60s. Tuesday to Thursday: Low pressure in the Gulf of AK drops southward through this period, enveloping the area in colder weather and modest chances for precipitation. Rain and mountain snow chances increase through Tuesday as the low approaches, becoming likely in the Cascades and northern counties by late morning to afternoon and over most of the remaining CWA Tuesday evening into Wednesday. The exception will be over central WA where the shadowing will keep PoPs to around 40-50%, highest Tuesday overnight into early Wednesday. The chances start to wane from the west Wednesday night into Thursday. There is about 10 percent chance for embedded t-storms over the northeast CWA Thursday afternoon. Too small to show up in the official forecast, bu something to watch. It is not until Thursday night that the main chance shift toward the Cascade crest and ID Mountains. Snow levels around 3.5-4.5kft Tuesday afternoon drop to 2-3kft Wednesday afternoon and 1-1.5kft by Thursday morning. So look for mountain snow and lowland rain to start, changing to a lowland mix or even all snow overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning. Precipitation chances start to wane by then, but it still leave the potential for some accumulation in the lowlands that time frame. The biggest snow impacts are expected in the mountain passes. Here are some probabilities from Tuesday to Thursday morning (48-hours): 2 4 6 8 12 Stevens Pass 100% 98% 90% 70% 25% Snoqualmie Pass 96% 80% 65% 45% 15% Lookout Pass 100% 85% 55% 40% 15% Sherman Pass 60% 25% 15% 10% 3% The chance for 0.1 inches at select locations outside the mountains for Wednesday night into Thursday AM: Pullman 60%, Sandpoint 55%, Spokane 20%. Rain amounts around 0.25 to 0.60 inches are forecast around the east third of WA and ID, with high amounts in the higher terrain. This could cause some minor flooding around small streams and creeks and lead to some ponding of water in poor drainage areas and field flooding. Winds will remain breezy/gusty through this period. Southwest winds Tuesday at 10-20 mph with gusts of 25-40 mph. Winds turn more west-northwest Wednesday and Thursday, with similar speeds but gusts around 20-30 mph. Thursday to Sunday: High pressure and drier weather comes in Friday, but another low approaches for the latter part of the weekend increasing rain and mountain rain/snow chances Saturday night into Sunday. The primary low stays off the coast so PoPs are 20-40%, up to near 60% at the immediate Cascade crest. It will be a bit breezy and temperatures will be near normal. /Solveig && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS: IFR to MVFR conditions for KGEG-KSFF-KCOE-KPUW will trend towards VFR this afternoon as precipitation shifts east. Gusty southwest winds will increase into the early afternoon in the Inland northwest gusting around 20-30 kt. There is a 10-20% chance of thunderstorms from 21z-03z for KGEG-KSFF-KCOE. Confidence is too low for thunderstorms in the TAF. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Moderate confidence in VFR conditions later Monday afternoon to evening. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 60 37 52 38 48 29 / 50 10 30 90 70 40 Coeur d'Alene 55 38 50 38 46 30 / 70 20 40 100 80 70 Pullman 53 36 52 39 44 29 / 80 10 10 90 90 70 Lewiston 57 38 58 44 51 34 / 90 10 0 90 90 70 Colville 65 36 53 34 52 28 / 50 20 70 100 60 40 Sandpoint 54 38 47 37 45 29 / 80 50 70 100 90 70 Kellogg 50 37 48 37 42 29 / 90 30 50 100 100 80 Moses Lake 65 37 58 39 55 32 / 10 0 10 30 30 10 Wenatchee 61 42 55 38 52 34 / 0 0 20 50 20 10 Omak 67 39 56 37 54 32 / 0 0 40 60 30 10 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$  610 FXUS66 KSTO 131910 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 1210 PM PDT Mon Apr 13 2026 For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing. .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated mountain shower/thunderstorm chances today, then dry through Wednesday morning. - Quick moving system Wednesday-Thursday brings light mountain rain/snow alongside gusty north winds in the Valley. - Warmer and drier weather expected late week into the weekend followed by additional precipitation chances Sunday into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... ...Today - Tuesday... Lingering mountain shower and isolated thunderstorm chances continue through this evening as the system that brought widespread precipitation impacts to the region through the weekend departs. While additional precipitation totals will remain light, thunderstorm chances sit around 5-15% through tonight, with highest potential across the mountains/foothills south of Highway 50. Dry weather is expected to prevail elsewhere today, with Tuesday remaining dry area wide as well. With weakening winds and clearing skies overnight some 30-50% probabilities exist for patchy Valley fog development on Tuesday morning. ...Midweek... Moving into Wednesday, a quick moving system looks to introduce light mountain rain and snow shower chances by Wednesday morning. Current NBM probabilities of rainfall greater than 0.25" sit around 30-50%, with highest chances across the Sierra/southern Cascades and the Shasta County terrain. Snow levels are expected to remain around 6000 feet through Wednesday evening when the bulk of the precipitation is anticipated. As dry weather continues at lower elevations through this event, increasing north to east winds are looking likely as the system departs on Thursday. Wind gusts 25 to 35 mph are generally expected throughout the Valley, although NBM probabilities of gusts up to 40 mph around 20-40% do exist for the northern and central Sacramento Valley on Thursday. ...Late Week into the Weekend... As the midweek system continues to eject eastward through the end of the week, breezy north winds are likely to persist on Friday before trending lighter by the weekend. Dry weather is expected to persist on Friday and Saturday as a brief period of ridging aloft builds in over the weekend. This will allow temperatures to return to near to above normal through the first half of the weekend. Ensemble guidance does indicate additional periods of active weather as another deepening trough arrives Sunday into early next week. While exact details remain variable at this time, rain/mountain snow, isolated thunderstorm chances, and breezy to gusty onshore winds will all be possible given the current forecast trajectory of the system. At the moment, the trough does look more progressive and quick moving relative to the system that brought widespread, prolonged impacts last week and through the weekend. && .AVIATION... General VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Areas of MVFR/IFR/LIFR conditions are possible in the Valley tomorrow between 10-18Z Tuesday morning due to low clouds and patchy FG/BR. Currently there is a 30 to 50% chance of visibilities less than 1/2 mile in the Central Sacramento Valley tomorrow morning. Chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms continue today over the mountains which may result in areas of MVFR/IFR conditions between 21Z and 06Z. Winds may be erratic with direction and speed in and around thunderstorm activity. Surface winds will be generally 12kts or less, with periodic northwest gusts 15 to 20 kts in the northern San Joaquin Valley and Delta between 22Z and 04Z today. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$  163 FXUS64 KFWD 131912 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 212 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop across parts of North Texas late this afternoon and evening, mainly west of I-35. A few storms could become severe, capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts. - An active pattern will persist all week with storm chances and potential for strong to severe storms both Tuesday and Wednesday. - A strong cold front this weekend is expected to bring much cooler temperatures and dry weather for late weekend into early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 142 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Weak ridging aloft between the departing shortwave and the next western CONUS trough will maintain quieter conditions across much of Central Texas today, but a more favorable setup for isolated convection may evolve across parts of North Texas this afternoon and evening. Morning low clouds are already scattering across portions of western North Texas, and this increased insolation ahead of the dryline should allow for greater destabilization through the afternoon. At the same time, a subtle disturbance lifting out of northern Mexico will approach the dryline and provide a modest increase in ascent during peak heating. This combination should be enough to support isolated thunderstorm development late this afternoon and evening, with the best chances focused across our western North Texas counties including areas near the Big Country. PoPs have been increased across North Texas after 7 PM to account for this evolving signal. If storms develop and mature, steep lapse rates, moderate instability, and 40+ kt of deep-layer shear will support a few supercells capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. The main source of uncertainty will be storm coverage and eastward persistence tonight. While confidence has increased that at least isolated storms could develop near the dryline, it is still less certain how far east activity will survive as it encounters a more weakly forced and stable environment deeper into eastern North Texas. A low chance remains that one or two storms could persist into the I-35 corridor this evening, and if that occurs, an isolated strong storm would remain possible there as well. Otherwise, activity should remain scattered with most locations staying dry. Tuesday will then feature another warm and breezy day with the next, more organized round of storm chances holding off until later in the day and especially at night. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 142 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 The active pattern will take shape in earnest Tuesday night through Wednesday as the main upper trough lifts into the Plains and strengthens southwesterly flow aloft over the Southern Plains. Scattered storms developing along the dryline to our west Tuesday afternoon and evening may spread into our western counties Tuesday night, although confidence in coverage remains tempered by a stout cap and uncertainty in how long storms can survive as they move east. Even so, the environment would support a few strong to severe storms with large hail as the primary hazard, along with damaging winds and a low-end tornado risk if any discrete cells can persist into the richer low-level moisture. Wednesday still appears to offer the better chance for more widespread showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area as the trough axis shifts overhead and the dryline presses farther east. The main source of uncertainty will be any morning convection arriving from the west, as this could limit daytime destabilization and reduce the coverage and intensity of storms later in the day. If enough recovery occurs, moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear would again support organized convection capable of large hail and damaging winds, with the tornado threat increasing somewhat late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening as low-level flow strengthens. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible, though the greater concern at this time appears to be localized swaths of heavier rain rather than a widespread flooding setup. A relative lull in precipitation is expected Thursday as the midweek trough departs and weak ridging builds overhead. Attention then turns to the end of the week as another upper trough approaches from the west. Friday currently looks warm and more capped, which may limit convective development across much of the region despite a favored thermodynamic and kinematic environment on paper. As a result, daytime storm chances may end up even lower than the blended guidance would suggest. Better rain chances should arrive Friday night into Saturday as a strong cold front pushes south through the region. Current indications suggest the front will move through the Metroplex around daybreak Saturday before clearing Central Texas by the afternoon. While showers and thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the boundary, the severe weather potential appears limited for now as instability weakens with time. In the wake of the front, a much cooler and drier air mass will settle into the region for the latter half of the weekend with lows dropping into the 40s/50s and highs held into the upper 60s and 70s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 142 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 VFR conditions have returned across the Metroplex and Waco this afternoon as morning stratus continues to lift and scatter. South winds around 15 to 20 knots will persist through the period, with occasional higher gusts possible this afternoon. The main aviation concern today will be the convective potential this evening across North Texas as isolated storms develop near the dryline and attempt to move east. Given the rapid destabilization occurring amid clearing skies and the subtle disturbance lifting out of northern Mexico, a mention of VCTS/TSRA has been introduced for the D10 terminals. Any storm that reaches a terminal could produce brief visibility reductions, gusty winds, and hail. Storm chances should diminish overnight with a return of low clouds. MVFR ceilings are expected to redevelop around 06-07Z and persist into Tuesday morning, with bases generally near 1500 ft before gradually lifting by late morning into early afternoon. No thunder mention was included at KACT where convective chances remain too low to justify inclusion at this time. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1232 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 68 83 68 81 / 30 20 40 60 Waco 68 80 66 80 / 10 10 20 40 Paris 67 80 66 79 / 20 10 20 50 Denton 66 82 65 79 / 30 30 50 70 McKinney 68 82 67 79 / 20 10 40 60 Dallas 68 82 68 81 / 20 20 30 60 Terrell 68 83 67 82 / 20 10 20 50 Corsicana 69 84 69 84 / 10 10 10 40 Temple 68 83 67 83 / 10 10 20 40 Mineral Wells 67 83 64 79 / 30 40 70 60 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...12  909 FXUS63 KDVN 131915 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 215 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered severe storm risk continues for this afternoon into early evening, with a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) of severe weather remaining for northwest Illinois. - We continue to have multiple days of severe weather risks this week, including an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) for severe storms Tuesday, along with Slight Risks for Wednesday and Friday. - Warm and seasonably humid conditions are expected through much of this week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 214 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Not much change for our severe weather potential this afternoon into early this evening, with a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for areas along and north of Galena, IL southeast towards Galva, IL, and a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) along and north of a line from Sigourney, IA to south-central Hancock county, IL. After any early evening storms dissipate over northwest Illinois, attention will quickly turn to any storms that have developed along a warm front/surface low over northwestern Iowa into southern Minnesota, northwest of our area. The latest high-res CAMs have some slight variation of just how far south the convection will reach. It's possible that our northern CWA could be clipped by this activity, which appears likely to be in a weakening phase but could still pose a locally gusty wind threat. In the wake of this activity, we should also see some fog develop late tonight into early Tuesday morning, owing to the abundant low-level moisture we have in place. Models suggest that once the northern activity moves out, there should be a brief respite from the severe threat Tuesday morning (and perhaps through most, if not all, of the afternoon hours) before yet another round of severe storms develop late in the afternoon through the evening. Tuesday's severe threat is higher for us compared to today due to another approaching surface low over western Iowa, along with a frontal boundary setting up across our region. The environment appears to be primed for severe storms, with the 13.12z HREF ensemble SBCAPE values progged around the 2500-3500 J/kg and deep-layer shear values around 40 to 50 knots. A southwesterly LLJ around 30-40 knots should also help add more lift and theta-e advection to the environment, along with enhancing low- level shear magnitudes. With steep mid-level lapse rates expected, as well, all hazards are expected with this convection. CAMs suggest convective morphology to initially begin as discrete supercells along the boundary, which would be supportive of a large hail and tornado threat. Convection could consolidate into a multicell cluster, which would then support a damaging wind threat by the late evening and Tuesday night period. With this said, SPC maintained the Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) for severe storms along and north of line from southern Putnam county, IL to northern Van Buren county, IA, with a Slight Risk elsewhere. Another thing that could become problematic is a signal in the CAMs for some training convection Tuesday night as storms develop along the boundary. Pwat values are progged around 1 to 1.5 inches, along with a persistent LLJ impinging on the boundary. If rainfall becomes heavy over a single location, especially if it is a more urban area, overnight flash flooding could become a concern. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 214 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 For Wednesday through Friday, the active pattern will only continue as an upper-level longwave trough moves through the area Wednesday, followed by yet another one on Friday. We continue to be outlooked by SPC for Slight Risks both days in our region. Much uncertainty remains on the timing and severity as prior convection can augment the environment, but the various machine learning severe probability tools suggest these days to be volatile from an environmental perspective, so more severe storm potential is expected later this week. Stay up to date on these severe weather threats! A quick look ahead to the upcoming weekend shows a calmer pattern developing for Saturday and Sunday as upper-level ridging develops to the west. A cold front should bring more seasonal temperatures to the area. In fact, we could be dealing with our first bout of frost/freeze conditions during this growing season Saturday night. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1256 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A mix of VFR to MVFR ceilings, largely due to daytime cumulus cloud coverage, were seen across the area early this afternoon, along with a cluster of showers and storms that will exit the area to the east. Yet another round of storms is possible later this afternoon, most likely for DBQ and MLI, although exact areal coverage remains uncertain. Gusty southerly winds should develop as well, gusting around 20 to 25 knots. Tonight, dry conditions should prevail. However, as gusts diminish, a persistent southwesterly 40 to 50 knot low-level jet should support a period of low-level wind shear for CID, MLI, and BRL. There should also be a period of MVFR fog for CID and DBQ overnight tonight. Some guidance suggests IFR fog for DBQ, but probabilities remain low at this time (20-30% per the latest NBM). && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Schultz LONG TERM...Schultz/Uttech AVIATION...Schultz  645 FXUS63 KLOT 131918 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 218 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Late spring to summer-like temperatures will continue through Friday with highs in the 70s and 80s and lows in the 60s. - Several additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms, including a threat for severe weather and flooding, may occur as early as today-tonight, but especially Tuesday and Wednesday. - A brief break in the pattern is expected late Thursday into or through the day on Friday before another storm system arrives in the Friday evening to Saturday timeframe. - In the wake of the Saturday cold front, a brief, potentially sharp, shot of much cooler air could bring frost/freeze concerns into next Sunday and Monday. && .MESOSCALE... Issued at 218 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Moisture advection along the northeastern terminus of an 850 low- level jet favored the early afternoon development of scattered showers and storms across western IL. The expectation is for this cluster of storms to continue sliding east-northeastward across northern IL and into northwestern IN through the afternoon. While the overall severe threat with the storms this afternoon remains in question, the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and ample deep layer shear noted by long straight hodographs suggest conditions will be favorable for supercells capable of producing large hail through early this evening. As of this writing, it appears the best environment supportive of more substantial surface based storms resides south of I-80. This is the area where more persistent insolation through the day has pushed temperatures into the low 80s. Accordingly, in collaboration with the SPC we have issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for this area. More substantial thunderstorms are slated to develop this evening north-northwest of our area across portions of the Upper Midwest in the vicinity of a surface warm front. With time, conglomerate outflow from these storms will support upscale growth into a east-southeastward shifting MCS late this evening and overnight. We will be watching trends with this activity closely through the evening, as it remains plausible that northern parts of our area could get a glancing blow by these storms overnight. Locally strong wind gusts, hail and heavy rainfall would be the main threat with these storms overnight. KJB && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 338 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Synopsis: The transition season will live up to its billing and then some over the next week. The advertised late spring to summer-like stormy pattern (with some breaks) will be us through Saturday, followed by much cooler to possibly downright chilly conditions Saturday night through Sunday night. The timeframe of greatest concern for severe weather this week is Tuesday afternoon into the evening, for which SPC introduced a threat level of 3/5 (enhanced risk) in the overnight day 2 outlook. Over the next 48 hours, aggregate troughing will become established across the southwestern United States and reinforce longwave ridging from the Mississippi River Valley toward the East Coast. Northeasterly shortwave shedding will support corresponding episodic surface cyclone development from the Plains through the Upper Great Lakes, altogether reinforcing a broad warm sector with late spring to summer-like temperatures into the region for much of the workweek. Through Tonight: The daytime hours today will start out dry but mostly cloudy, with low clouds near and north of I-80 initially limiting the diurnal temperature rise. This afternoon, there will be competing factors regarding whether any convection (likely rooted above the boundary layer) can materialize. As the aforementioned aggregate troughing strengthens across the southwestern US today, a renewed push of southwesterly mid- level flow will advect a stout EML plume featuring very steep mid-level lapse rates (>8 C/km) into the Great Lakes. The strong capping at the base of the EML plume and expected mid-level height rises typically conceptually point toward dry conditions. However, we can't ignore the signal on some of the overnight CAM guidance for scattered thunderstorms on the nose of the EML this afternoon. Based on an analysis of RAP model fields (which initialize the HRRR), a possible subtle 700 mb wave with a defined wind response and appreciable moisture look to be the key player. Unfortunately, it's a bit too early to tell how realistic this depiction is (satellite and observational trends after sunrise this morning should help). Should the base of the cap be moistened and cooled enough and updraft attempts overcome the lack of large scale forcing, the modeled scenario on some of the high-res guidance may very well come to fruition. Given the competing factors and inherent uncertainty, opted to introduce 30-40% PoPs translating eastward this afternoon. If a few robust thunderstorms are able to develop, effective shear of 30 to 35kt, weak effective inflow, and steep mid-level lapse rates would support a threat for supercells with both damaging winds and hail. The threat level 1/5 of in the initial day 1 SPC outlook appears appropriate for now in light of the highly conditional nature of this setup. Outside of the uncertain convective potential, expect highs in the 70s to around 80F (warmest south of I-80) this afternoon, with southwest winds gusting up to 25-30 mph. Tonight, there may be a short window of continued potential for isolated to widely scattered storms this evening (20-30% PoPs), possibly related to outflow from previous storms (if any indeed occur this afternoon). Otherwise, intense thunderstorm development is favored to occur somewhere from central Minnesota into central Wisconsin as a subtle upper-level shortwave riding within broad upper-level southwesterly flow induces a low-level jet atop the stalled warm frontal zone to our north. In the absence of any convection this evening, attention will turn to likely activity to our north. With the northeasterly terminus of the low-level jet pointing toward the west-to-east oriented instability axis from Wisconsin and eventually central Lower Michigan, any upscale growth into a mesoscale convection system should stay decidedly north of our area. However, should the warm front end up further south than currently in our forecast (as hinted by HRDPS/ECMWF output), part of northern Illinois may get a glancing blow by (likely weakening) storms. Currently don't see this as a particularly likely scenario, so will cap PoPs at 30-40% from the pre-dawn through daybreak hours. Tuesday and Wednesday: Toward the middle of the week, aggregate troughing will shift eastward toward the Four Corners Region leading to a corresponding "nudge" eastward in broad upper-level southwesterly flow into the Great Lakes. The overlap of the plume of steep mid-level lapse rates, stalled frontal zone, a steady feed of low-level moisture advection, and a parade of shortwaves and the eventual ejection of the aggregate trough with associated jet maxima to support deep-layer shear will support a threat for additional waves of severe thunderstorms in the general region. Storm modes ranging from convective clusters to supercells with a threat for all hazards (including very large hail and tornadoes) will be fair game, particularly on Tuesday. While there is low confidence in exactly how Tuesday PM will play out (and how early storms will initiate), the potential is there for a very favorable setup for damaging to even destructive hail, which drove the SPC day 2 outlook upgrade (favoring near and north of I-80). It remains to be seen if locally backed winds can materialize, with respect to a tornado threat. Additional, repeated rounds of storms over the same area may support a threat for flash flooding (possibly even locally significant) into Tuesday night. Prior rounds of convection into Wednesday morning may then muddle the picture convectively speaking for Wednesday PM. Ultimately, pinpointing favored locations and time windows will remain challenging until there is better clarity on exact shortwaves and eventual placements of boundaries. Thursday through Sunday: There's variance regarding the progression of a cold front across the region, with some of the slower solutions holding onto some potential for storms into Thursday afternoon. Thereafter, into Thursday night and at least the start of Friday, ensemble model guidance advertises a brief break in the stormy pattern as shortwave ridging moves through the Great Lakes ahead of a substantial trough digging into the central US. High temperatures look to rebound into the low to even mid 80s by Friday accompanied by another threat for strong to severe thunderstorms Friday night into Saturday. Thereafter, there is a reasonably strong signal in ensemble guidance for a cooldown to start next week. The key aspect for the weekend into early next week cooldown is a recent trend towards a much cooler air mass due to trough amplification over the region. If this comes to pass, parts of the area may flirt with sub-freezing temperatures Saturday night into early Sunday, and again Sunday night into next Monday morning. With the summer-like warmth and rain this week supercharging plant growth and leaf out, the magnitude of the weekend cold shot will be one to watch for agricultural interests. Castro/Borchardt && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1247 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Key Aviation Messages for the current TAF period: - Multiple waves of showers and storms through the evening. Low confidence in coverage. - Gusty southwest winds are expected through the TAF, with a chance of erratic gusty southeast winds for a brief period after 00Z - Low level wind shear expected overnight as a low level jet increases - Another chance for showers and storms closer to day break tomorrow. Low level clouds have lifted to higher-end MVFR cigs for most of the air space. While Chicago terminals are dry at the moment, scattered showers with embedded thunder has crossed the Mississippi River and is quickly moving northeast. Model guidance has struggled with today's event, but surface and radar observations helped justify converting PROB30s to TEMPOs and help give a better estimate for showers and thunder at terminals this afternoon. Winds will remain out of the southwest with gusts 20 to 25 knots, though stronger gusts associated with thunderstorms is possible. While the current trends may be the main show, models (which have already been mentioned as not handling the event well, thus lower confidence in what they are projecting) continue to highlight a second wave of showers and storms after 00Z. PROB30s were maintained for northern terminals given the lower confidence in coverage, but TEMPOs were added for MDW/GYY given the trend in better coverage to the south. Additionally, there could be a brief window of gusty southeast winds with this second round of showers and storms tonight, before returning to the southwest as the showers pass. After 03Z, a low level jet is expected to increase with winds exceeding 50 knots just 2000 ft AGL. The threat for low level wind shear was maintained in the TAF. Most of the region should remain dry overnight, however, the showers and thunderstorms impacting Minnesota and Wisconsin during the day/evening today is projected to move southeast over the airspace tonight. Many models are suggesting most of the showers and storms will push out over Lake Michigan. While there is lower confidence in this final wave of precipitation, it merited a PROB30 inclusion in the TAF. Drier conditions are expected after daybreak tomorrow. MVFR cigs hang on through the morning before eventually lifting to VFR levels. Winds will remain out of the southwest with gusts 20 to 25 knots. There could we a weak wave in the afternoon that provides isolated shower chances, but confidence was too low for mention in the TAF presently. DK && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago  374 FXUS63 KLMK 131919 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 319 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Well-above normal temperatures continue throughout the upcoming week. A few temperature records may be in jeopardy. * Rain from a quick-hitting shortwave expected Thursday, though rainfall totals likely (80%) remain light under 0.5" in by Friday morning * Friday is very warm with highs in the 80s * Monitoring a cold front with the potential to impact weekend events in Louisville with gusty winds and storms. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 317 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Scattered light showers are ongoing across portions of south-central and eastern KY. These showers are outpacing the instability axis, though there are some pockets of moderate rain due to the relatively higher PWAT axis. This precip activity will end this afternoon, leading to a mostly dry evening due to a lack of any forcing. Temperatures remain warm tonight, which could challenge warm min temps for today if we don't drop into the 60s before midnight. We remain in warm SW flow tomorrow, with ridging over the southeast, and western US troughing. Similar to today, tomorrow is expected to be warm and breezy, though with a bit more sunshine. This will allow temps to be even warmer tomorrow, with afternoon highs in the 80s. Mostly dry conditions are expected throughout the day, though there is a low-end conditional chance for some scattered precip across the northern half of the CWA during the afternoon. Not a lot of confidence in this, and there is not a lot of agreement per the HREF paintballs, but there will be plenty of instability present given the warm temps to at least have some isolated thunder potential. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 317 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Wednesday - Friday Night Wednesday begins warm and quiet with the potential to break warm minimum temperatures in the morning ranging in the mid 60s to near 70 in some areas. Passing clouds will slowly build through the day from a slowly approaching jet streak to our northwest, which may limit some daytime heating ahead of an incoming shortwave or create an isolated shower, though confidence is low for any rain in our northwestern communities (20-30% of measurable rain). Regardless, mid to lower level ridging will be in place, amplifying southwesterly flow. This will boost temperatures well into the low to upper 80s in the afternoon, with the potential to break record highs, especially in warmer southern communities. Broken cloud cover may linger into the overnight as a shortwave rolls in a little closer heading into Thursday morning. With the ample heat from Wednesday, morning lows on Thursday will run high too, with the potential again to break high minimum temperatures in the low to upper 60s. The short term pattern on Thursday changes some, as the approaching shortwave will sweep through from west to east, bringing a round of rain and storms in the afternoon. Confidence with timing is increasing with the front dropping measurable rain near 11am - 2 pm in the west and as late as 5-7 pm in the east (75% of this onset timing). Highs area wide will range in the upper 70s to low 80s, with warmer temperatures further east as they will take the longest for the shortwave to sweep through. Rainfall totals will vary with the placement of heavy downpours from any storms though a general 0.25 - 0.5" in of rain may fall across the area (50-80% of this amount) with isolated 0.75" in (<10%). Ridging returns Friday though with skies clearing during the day. Morning lows will remain mild but probably not record breaking in the upper 50s to low 60s. With a southerly flow returning, Friday should be nice with partly cloudy skies and a slight chance of a shower or storm in the far northwest again (<20%). Highs may be record breaking once again in the mid to upper 80s, and maybe even a few spots reaching 90 degrees. This is all ahead of a larger trough moving in later in the weekend. Friday should remain dry overnight ahead of Saturday's weather. Saturday - Monday Saturday should begin dry with above normal temperatures for morning lows in the mid to upper 60s. S to SW flow will dominate ahead of a strong cold front to move in later in the afternoon bringing highs into the low to mid 80s. Any afternoon plans need to be monitored for potential disruptions as storms are expected to move in by the early afternoon Saturday. Confidence is low on the specific impacts, however threats from gusty winds, and heavy downpours, and lightning are the biggest concerns. The timing of the front is key and current ensemble analysis has the front moving in early in the afternoon, or waiting until after sunset. Whenever the ridge in the southeast US relents and moves further east will determine how quickly storms roll in. Stronger storms could be possible with timing in the afternoon or weaker storms may result with overnight timing. Regardless, everyone will see rain this Saturday and we will monitor this threat over the next few days. Once the front clears, cooler air and some gusty morning winds will move in Sunday as highs may struggle to reach the low 60s. High pressure will reinforce this cooler air leading to quiet weather for Sunday heading into Monday. Calmer weather lingers as long as this high sticks around Monday afternoon as well. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 140 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 VFR conditions are ongoing for the whole area despite lingering rain showers near LEX and over RGA. Showers will clear the area with a small chance of an isolated shower or storm this afternoon, though confidence is so low this was not explicitly included in forecast. Messy cloud decks of SCT-BKN near 10 kft and BKN-OVC near 25 kft will stick around this afternoon with more high level clouds overnight. SW to S winds 5-10 kts will persist throughout the whole period, and wind gusts of 15-25 kts will continue until sunset. From west to east beginning at 05Z, a low level jet will move in with winds from the SW of up to 40kts ending from 11-13Z. BWG may avoid this threat as the jet looks to stay too far north for them. Otherwise, wind gusts of 15-20 MPH return tomorrow morning area wide with VFR conditions expected through Tuesday morning. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CJP LONG TERM...BKF AVIATION...BKF  949 FXUS61 KLWX 131920 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 320 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes were made to the forecast. High temperatures Wednesday and Thursday decreased slightly with near record warmth still expected. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Near-record warm temperatures expected midweek as highs exceed 90 degrees for some. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Near-record warm temperatures expected midweek as highs exceed 90 degrees for some. Surface high pressure remains offshore through midweek with return flow ushering in warm air over the mid-atlantic. Aloft, an upper level ridge moves over the east coast. On Tuesday, high temperatures will be in the 80s for most with only those at higher elevations staying in the 70s. The warmest days of the week will be Wednesday and Thursday, as high temperatures approach record levels. Highs each day will be in the 80s to low 90s with record levels. With the current forecast, the record high will be broken at IAD, DCA, and BWI by 1-2 degrees although highs trended down from yesterday to today. In addition to record highs close to being broken, the record warm low is within a few degrees of the current forecast low temps. Will continue to monitor, but either way, near record warmth is expected this week with a moderate heat risk. Early season heat can be more impactful than mid summer as many are not acclimated to hot temperatures. Temperatures are expected to cool this weekend as a cold front moves across the forecast area. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions continue through midweek with primarily dry conditions expected. An isolated shower cannot be ruled out at KIAD and KMRB Tuesday, although little to no impacts are expected. Southwest wind gusts between 15 and 25 knots continue this afternoon with winds expected to diminish overnight. Winds remain out of the south/southwest Tuesday, with gusts around 15 knots in the afternoon. On Wednesday, southwest winds blow 5 to 10 knots across the terminals with the exception being KMRB and KCHO where gusts near 15 knots are expected. Rain chances on Thursday may lead to deteriorating flight conditions on Thursday, although chances remain low at this time. Southwest winds on Thursday shift to west on Friday, blowing around 10 knots each day. && .MARINE... A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 8PM with southwest winds 10 to 15 knots and gusts up to 30 knots expected. Winds remain out of the west/southwest through Wednesday as high pressure remains offshore. Gusty winds continue Tuesday, but are expected to remain below SCA criteria. Winds diminish Tuesday night and are expected to remain light over the waters on Wednesday. Gusty southwest winds on Thursday afternoon are expected with additional SCA possible in the southern portions of the waters. Winds remain below SCA across all waters on Friday. && .FIRE WEATHER... A cold front moving through the area this afternoon is helping lessen some of the fire weather concerns due to some lower temperatures and abundant cloud cover. Breezy conditions are expected to continue through the afternoon, with peak gusts around 25-30 mph, and up to 30-35 mph in the mountains. Dew points are also much higher than forecast, now in the mid to upper 50s. This is keeping RH values above 40-50pct in most areas. However, as we continue through the rest of this week expect fire weather conditions to become elevated as temperatures reach the 80s to 90s each day. The warmest conditions will be Wednesday and Thursday, where some areas could reach the mid 90s. Winds are going to be less through the middle of the week, but still looking at gusts around 20 mph each afternoon Tuesday and Wednesday. The lowest RH values are going to be around 30-35 pct each afternoon through Friday, with Thursday likely having the lowest RH values around 20-30 pct. Thursday could be the most fire sensitive day of the week due to increasing southwesterly winds. Another cold front moves across the area Friday. This lessens some of the extreme warmth as highs reach the 80s and there could be some showers in the area. However, given the preceding dry conditions and weak nature of the front, not expecting a wetting rain from this for most areas. && .CLIMATE... Many daily records are likely to be broken this week, for both high temperatures and warm low temperatures. Some stations could tie or set their all-time high temperature and warm low temperature records for the month of April. April 14 Location RECORD HIGH RECORD WARM LOW Washington-National (DCA) 91F (1960) 65F (2014) Washington-Dulles (IAD) 87F (1960) 63F (2014) Baltimore (BWI) 91F (1941) 65F (2018) Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 90F (1960) 67F (2018) Martinsburg (MRB) 87F (1960) 62F (2014) Charlottesville (CHO) 90F (1945) 67F (1899) Annapolis(NAK) 90F (1941) 65F (1977) Hagerstown (HGR) 86F (2024) 64F (2014) April 15 Location RECORD HIGH RECORD WARM LOW Washington-National (DCA) 89F (1941) 65F (2023) Washington-Dulles (IAD) 87F (1967) 62F (2023) Baltimore (BWI) 88F (1941) 65F (1941) Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 92F (2024) 67F (1960) Martinsburg (MRB) 90F (1941) 63F (1967) Charlottesville (CHO) 92F (2024) 68F (1941) Annapolis(NAK) 91F (1941) 68F (1994) Hagerstown (HGR) 85F (1960) 61F (2023) April 16 Location RECORD HIGH RECORD WARM LOW Washington-National (DCA) 92F (2002) 65F (2017) Washington-Dulles (IAD) 91F (2002) 63F (2017) Baltimore (BWI) 90F (2012) 66F (1941) Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 91F (2012) 65F (2012) Martinsburg (MRB) 90F (2002) 63F (2017) Charlottesville (CHO) 92F (1976) 67F (1941) Annapolis(NAK) 89F (2017) 70F (1994) Hagerstown (HGR) 88F (2002) 62F (2002) April 17 Location RECORD HIGH RECORD WARM LOW Washington-National (DCA) 95F (2002) 65F (2002) Washington-Dulles (IAD) 93F (2002) 59F (2024) Baltimore (BWI) 93F (2002) 66F (1896) Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 95F (2002) 66F (1976) Martinsburg (MRB) 93F (2002) 60F (1941) Charlottesville (CHO) 94F (1976) 65F (1976) Annapolis(NAK) 90F (1976) 68F (1994) Hagerstown (HGR) 90F (2002) 64F (2002) All-Time April Record Highs: Washington-National (DCA) 95F 4/17/2002, 4/18/1976, 4/23/1960 4/27/1915 Washington-Dulles (IAD) 93F 4/6/2010, 4/17/2002, 4/25/1960 Baltimore (BWI) 94F 4/25/1960, 4/23/1960, 4/20/1941, 4/18/1896 Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 98F 4/26/1990, 4/22/1985 Martinsburg (MRB) 96F 4/21/1941 Charlottesville (CHO) 98F 4/24-25/1925 Annapolis(NAK) 95F 4/20/1941 Hagerstown (HGR) 94F 4/6/2010, 4/18/1976, 4/26/1915 All-Time April Record Warm-Lows: Washington-National (DCA) 70F 4/29/2017 Washington-Dulles (IAD) 68F 4/27/2011 Baltimore (BWI) 70F 4/19/1896 Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 76F 4/26/1990 Martinsburg (MRB) 69F 4/19/2025 Charlottesville (CHO) 72F 4/26/1915 Annapolis(NAK) 70F 4/28/1994, 4/16/1994, 4/18/1896 Hagerstown (HGR) 69F 4/27/2009 && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MDZ008. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ530>543. && $$ DISCUSSION...AVS/KRR AVIATION...AVS MARINE...AVS  023 FXUS66 KSGX 131924 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 1224 PM PDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers are possible through this evening across much of the region. Elevated winds will occur across the mountains and deserts through this evening as well. Drier weather will then take hold the rest of the week as a subtle warming trend occurs. Elevated winds will return to the region by Thursday into Friday. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... An area of low pressure over the southern half of California will continue to move eastward today. This system will continue the chance for scattered showers across the region. Most areas will see a mix of clouds and sun with these showers, though the chance for lower deserts seeing any measurable rainfall is below 15%. West winds will continue to remain elevated as the trough remains in the vicinity. West winds will gust near 25-40 MPH across most mountain and desert areas, with local gusts near 50 MPH in mountain passes. Satellite imagery shows a drying trend offshore. This trend will push onto land through the afternoon with more peaks of sun from north to south into the evening. The weather system will push further inland over the desert southwest by Tuesday. This will lead to all areas warming about 10 degrees than that of today, with highs near to slightly below normal. Remnant clouds may stick around for areas west of the mountains in the morning with most areas clearing by the afternoon. Slight warming with dry and mostly sunny conditions will occur on Wednesday as an area of low pressure tumbles into the Pacific Northwest. This system will traverse the Great Basin by Thursday, ushering in a broad troughing pattern. The system will stay far enough to the north to not provide any major impacts, but high temperatures will be up to 5 degrees cooler with elevated west winds across the mountains and the deserts. Winds will turn offshore late Thursday night into Friday as the system passes further inland, so we will continue to monitor how strong these winds will be which will be dependent on the exact location that this low pressure system goes. Subtle warming looks to occur by the weekend, though a large trough offshore could make things interesting as we head into the latter part of April. && .AVIATION... 131730Z...Coasts/Valleys...Multiple SCT-BKN cloud layers above 2500 ft MSL expected today. SCT -SHRA could drop cigs to 2000 feet at times. -SHRA will taper off NW to SE around 00Z Tue. Cigs below 3000 ft unlikely for the coast overnight, with 40-50% chance in the valleys, especially near mountain foothills 08-14Z Tue. Any lingering low clouds should SCT by 18Z Tue. .Mountains/Deserts...West to southwest winds gusting 35-45 kt through passes and on to desert slopes through 10Z Tue. MOD up/downdrafts in lee of mountains. SCT SHRA/SNSH possible through 00Z Tue in the mountains. Areas of terrain obscuration below 6000 feet MSL on west/south facing slopes. && .MARINE... Isolated westerly wind gusts will exceed 20 kt this afternoon and evening, generating choppy conditions. No hazardous conditions are expected Tuesday through Friday. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...APR AVIATION/MARINE...CO  079 FXUS63 KTOP 131926 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 226 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Red Flag Warning in north-central KS this afternoon and evening. A very high fire danger. -Storms could impact far eastern KS Tuesday evening, bringing a threat for severe weather. -Additional storm chances occur Wednesday and again Friday, with more uncertainty on timing/location. -Cooler weather expected this weekend. Possible freeze and frost early Sunday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 140 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Early this afternoon, water vapor satellite imagery showed an upper level trough extending from the Great Basin southwest into southern CA. Broad southwesterly mid level flow of 40 to to 50 KTS was noted from the base of the Southwest US trough, extending northeast across the Plains, then northeast across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes States. A broad upper level ridge was centered off the FL coast across the eastern Gulf. At the surface, an area of low pressure was located across the northeast NE. A warm front extended east northeast across southern MN. A dryline extended west-southwest across eastern NE, to the far western counties of the CWA, into western OK. Winds ahead of the dryline were south-southwesterly at 15 to 25 MPH and gusts to 40 MPH. West of the dryline, winds veered more to the southwest and dewpoints have dropped down into the mid 30s to lower 40s. This afternoon and Tonight: The dryline will move east to a Washington, to Clay center, to Abilene line late this afternoon. Most CAM soundings do not show much of cap but weak confluence along the dryline will not be enough surface convergence to develop thunderstorms. The 3 KM NAM is showing sfc based storms developing across north central OK late this afternoon, which may develop northeastward during the evening hours but most other CAMs do not show any convection developing along the dryline across the CWA. If isolated storms were able to develop ahead of the dryline they would become severe with wind and hail as the primary hazard given MLCAPES around 2000 J/kg and 35 KTS of effective shear. The low level winds may be too veered for a tornado threat. but the probability for storms is below 14 percent across much of the eastern counties of the CWA. But I may place a 15 percent chance in Anderson county in case the 3K NAM is accurate with dryline storms building northeast up towards the southeast counties. Later shifts may need to update this forecast. Tonight, as the LLJ increases to 40 to 50 KTS across east central KS, I cannot rule out a few elevated storms across portions of east central KS but most of the CAMs do not show storms developing late Tonight into early Tuesday morning. Tuesday through Wednesday night: The upper trough across the southwest US will fill as it lifts northeast across the Plains Wednesday night. Tuesday, the dryline will move east across the central part of the CWA. There will not be as much QG forcing, since the H5 trough will still be farther west across UT/AZ. The surface shows more confluence along the dryline, so most of the area will remain dry. Most CAMs develop surface based storms across northern OK/south central KS and these storms may move northeast along across east central KS. The primary hazards will be large hail and damaging wind gusts but any discrete supercell may spawn a few tornadoes. However, the low-level wind fields looks to be veered, so the chances are much lower. Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night will provide a better chance for thunderstorms as the H5 trough shifts east into the Plains. DCVA ahead of the trough axis will provide for stronger ascent. At the surface a cold front will shift southeast into the northern counties and dryline will push east across the southwest counties. Thunderstorms will develop along the front and possibly south along the dryline. Some of these storms may be severe with the primary hazards being large hail and damaging wind gusts. Through the evening hours a line of storms will congeal along the cold front, and the threat will become isolated damaging wind gusts. The front should push southeast of the CWA during the early morning hours of Thursday. Thursday through Thursday night: Early Thursday, an upper level trough will move onshore across the Pacific northwest and dig southeast into the Great Basin. We may see a break from any thunderstorms as the Pacific front will push east into western MO. Frontolysis will occur through the afternoon hours and westerly winds will diminish and become southerly through Thursday night. Friday through Sunday: The extended range models are in fair agreement. The GFS is a bit more progressive and maybe more favorable for severe thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours.The H5 trough across the Great Basin will dig east-southeast across the central Rockies, then across the Plains Friday night into Saturday Morning. A cold front will push southeast across the northern High plains, then southeast across NE through the day. A surface low and dryline across western KS will shift east. Thunderstorms will develop across central KS through the afternoon hour. If discrete thunderstorms develop within the warm sector where there will be sufficient vertical wind shear and instability for supercell thunderstorms. The hazards from supercell thunderstorms would be large hail, damaging wind gusts, and possibly a few tornadoes. It still remains uncertain if these discrete supercells will remain south of the area Friday afternoon. Though the slightly more progressive GFS solution would provide a better chance for supercell thunderstorms developing ahead of the cold front/dryline during the afternoon hours before the storms congeal into a squall line. The slower ECMWF solution shows most storms developing ahead of the cold front during the mid and late evening hours. If a line of storms develop the the primary hazard would be isolated damaging wind gusts along the squall line. The cold front will move southeast of the CWA during the morning hours of Saturday and the rain and thunderstorms will shift east of the area. We will see a cool down by the weekend with highs in the mid 50s north to lower 60s south. Highs Sunday will be in the lower to mid 60s. Low temperatures early Sunday morning may fall below freezing across the northern counties of the CWA with mid 30s across much of the area. Therefore, a freeze warning and frost of advisory may be needed Saturday night into Sunday morning. An H5 ridge will move towards the Plains next week, which will cause temperatres to warm into the 70s on Monday and the 80s by the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1234 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Any isolated thunderstorms that develop late this afternoon and evening will remain southeast of the terminals. The strong winds of 22 to 30 KTS with gusts to 30 to 40 KTS will continue through the afternoon. Tonight the southerly winds will remain 12 to 18 KTS with gusts of 22 to 30 KTS, so there will only be moderate low-level windshear of 25 to 30 KTS. The next shift will need to monitor sfc winds this evening, if they do diminish then wind shear may need to be added to the TAFs Tonight. Southerly winds will pick up again during the mid morning hours of Tuesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 340 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 While green up of vegetation is underway, a Red Flag Warning will continue across north-central KS, where gusty winds and low RH will combine to create extreme fire danger. Dew points are forecast to drop this afternoon in this area as a dryline moves east. Minimum RH behind the dryline could quickly fall to around 20 percent. South-southwest winds will be sustained at 15 to 20 mph with gusts as high as 30 mph throughout the afternoon. Similar conditions will be in place behind the dryline (mainly in central KS) on Tuesday, with minimum RH between 20 and 25 percent and continued gusty south-southwest winds. Fire headlines are not currently anticipated Tuesday. However, at this time the Range Land Fire Index has only a very high fire danger for north central KS. All Burning should be postponed through midweek. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008-KSZ020- KSZ034. && $$ DISCUSSION...Gargan AVIATION...Gargan FIRE WEATHER...Teefey/Gargan  932 FXUS65 KPIH 131926 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 126 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light snow in the central Idaho mountains north of Mackay and Galena Summit - Much heavier rain and snow begins Tuesday night and continues through Thursday night. Snow returning to Snake River plain and eastern Magic Valley on Thursday morning. - Windy to very windy Tuesday night through Thursday afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1247 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Tonight through Thu afternoon...A weak upper level trough is triggering some light showers and the persistent northwesterly flow is finally bringing colder temperatures back to eastern Idaho. Light snow ends prior to midnight except for the northern half of the ID-WY border, where it continues light snow through Tue afternoon. Then after midnight Tue night, a more vigorous and moisture- laden snow storm arrives and continues over the area into the extended period. Very high likelihood of precipitation, the main forecast problem will be the snow levels and how much of the area will have heavy snow. Right now, most of the Winter Weather Advisories will be in the highlands and mountains, but it would not take much colder air to produce Winter Storm Warnings. This first weak storm has enough cold air behind it to send Snake River plain and eastern Magic Valley temperatures below freezing, as in 20 to 30 degrees tonight. The second storm arrives very quickly on the heels of this storm, and temperatures have no chance to recover. Overnight lows will be slightly warmer, but still widespread 24 to 34. This is due to the second storm's cloud shield. Wed night is also sub-freezing for most, with temperatures down 1 to 3 deg F from the night before. High temperatures will still allow snow melt on Tue and Wed, but mountain locations on Thu afternoon will struggle to get above freezing. This cold front on Wed also packs some wind, currently expecting the wind to reach Advisory level for at least the Arco Desert- Mud Lake region, perhaps more locations. Wind is even stronger on Thu. So, overall, this may be one of the stronger winter storms we have had all season. Thu night through next Mon. By Thu night the snow is limited to the eastern half of the forecast area. Fri continues to see some light snow in higher elevations in the east and southeast highlands. It appears the storm clears out for the weekend, with Sun morning the next low starts affecting Custer County and the western edge. Temperatures behind this front are bitter for this time of year. Single digit lows in the central Idaho mountains, and lows in the Snake River plain/eastern Magic Valley in the lower to middle 20s. Not time to plant your garden yet. The temperatures bottom on Thu night and Fri night, then rebound to staying in the lower to middle 30s by Sat night due to cloud cover from the next incoming low. The warming trend continues through the weekend and Mon is where temperatures level off. This is due to the next low moving through the northern half of the forecast area and dropping rain and high elevation snow. Wind takes a while to turn calmer. Fri continues breezy to windy, then Sat is when it is more light to breezy. Afternoons continue breezy to borderline windy (20-25 mph) through the weekend and into Monday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1121 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Pockets of rain or snow will persist into this evening especially impacting SUN and DIJ. We are maintaining VCSH for the most part, and amending as needed for showers actually impacting a particular airport with MVFR to IFR weather. For tonight and tomorrow morning, it does look like more widespread MVFR to IFR conditions for low clouds. We did include that in this set of forecasts. At SUN, this should not be an issue with a strong enough downvalley wind...but certainly worth watching a bit more closely as it may not take much for it to resurge back into the Wood River Valley. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Messick AVIATION...Keyes  275 FXUS63 KGLD 131927 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 127 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Red Flag Warning is in effect for portions of northwest Kansas today, mainly south and east of Goodland where warm/dry conditions and SW winds at 15-25 mph w/gusts to 35 mph may lead to rapid wildfire growth this afternoon. - Fire Weather Watch for Tuesday for counties south of Interstate 70. Conditions will be dependent on the placement of a low pressure system. - Showers and some storms are forecast north of Interstate 70 late Tuesday afternoon through the evening. A rogue strong storm can't be ruled out. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 123 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Troughing for today has set up further south than what was being seen yesterday as a surface low across Nebraska wound up being further south which has inhibited the strength of the winds for today. Sustained winds of 10-20 mph remain forecasted but wind gusts with the weaker wind field may only support 25-30 mph gusts versus the potential for 40 mph that I was seeing yesterday. With the warm temperatures and humidity values in the upper single digits to low teens, despite the marginal winds will leave the Red Flag Warning in place. Overnight, strong 700-500mb vorticity is forecast to move across the area leading to an increase in mid level moisture. A cold front is also forecast to move in from the north as well which should help provide enough lift to lead to some sprinkles given the very dry air remaining at the surface. With the front an increase in dew points is forecast to occur as well across the north where some stratus and perhaps some fog may be possible as well. Tuesday, a low pressure system is forecast to develop which will send the cold front back north as a warm front. There still remains variability on exactly where the low will set up as the GFS,NAM and RAP all favor a northern location but the ECMWF ensembles and ECWMF AI keep the low further south. Similar to what was mentioned yesterday a further south low would limit the fire weather potential versus a further north would lead to greater coverage of fire weather potential. I did go ahead and issue a fire weather watch for locations south of Interstate 70 where if the northern track of the low did develop this is where the fire weather conditions should occur at. Also did issue to avoid confusion with any fire weather partners as surrounding offices do and have had fire weather products out. I do have concerns that the further south low scenario will pan out as there has been a subtle southern shift in guidance over the past 24 hours and that has been the trend with the systems in reality over the past 24 hours. Currently confidence is around 40- 45% for multiple hours of critical fire weather in the forecast area so just enough to warrant the Fire Weather Watch. Confidence has increased some in rainfall potential for northern portions of the area since confidence is increasing in the southern low scenario. Showers and storms are forecast to increase in coverage Tuesday evening as a 500mb jet stream puts northwest portions of the area in the left exit region of the jet and the increased lift within the developing low pressure system. A warm front should be along the Kansas/Nebraska line where guidance is suggest around 500 j/kg of CAPE which should be enough to lead to some thunderstorms developing. There is slim (less than 5%) chance of severe weather mainly in the form of damaging winds but with unstable lapse rates and very high shear if a updraft could sustain itself then large hail may occur as well. Wednesday, is forecast to be a little cooler on the backside of the low as winds are forecast to remain from the northwest; highs for the day are forecast in the 70s. After any lingering rain in the morning moves out drier air is again forecast to move in from the northwest but leading to perhaps marginal at best fire weather conditions across Yuma and Dundy counties, any rain from Tuesday may be enough to minimize fire weather concerns as well for at least one day. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 100 PM MDT Sun Apr 12 2026 Shortwave trough axis will be traversing the area on Wednesday with widely scattered light rain showers in the wraparound. Despite the slightly cooler temperatures behind the associated cold front, northwest winds gusting 20-30 mph and afternoon relative humidity in the teens will combine for another possible day of critical fire weather. Main concern would be western and especially southwestern areas where humidity will be lowest (Colorado/Kansas border area). On Thursday will be between systems with a southwest flow aloft. Models not showing any embedded waves at this time so should be dry. The downsloping winds will dry out the low levels and humidity is forecast to drop to near 10% in the entire area. There is also a modest increase in wind speeds with gusts of 25-35 mph, highest south of Interstate 70. So, critical fire weather conditions will once again be possible. Next upper trough will be approaching the Rockies Thursday night and emerge onto the adjacent plains on Friday. Associated surface cold front will be traversing the forecast area at that time. Currently looks to be a dry front with the lead dry line sweeping the deeper moisture and precipitation well east of the area. Ahead of the front critical fire weather conditions will once again be possible. Operational models show the front bisecting the area at 18z lying roughly along Interstate 70, continuing south through the afternoon. North winds will be gusting 35-45 mph behind the front. Wraparound precipitation, in the form of snow, will develop in northeast Colorado Friday afternoon and then move into the area Friday night, but weakening as the upper support moves out. GFS, ECMWF and Canadian ensembles show accumulations of less than one inch. Any snow will be accompanied by gusty north winds of 25-35 mph. May see some lingering light rain/snow showers into Saturday, but not expecting anything significant and would not be surprised if it was dry. North winds continue to be gusty at 35-45 mph, but relative humidity is forecast to stay above 20% so may get a respite from the fire weather. Unfortunately that may not be the case for Sunday with gusty south winds, milder temperatures and lower humidity. Temperature trends for the period will start above normal on Wednesday (70s), then much above normal on Thursday (80s), near normal on Friday north of the front (50s and 60s) but above normal ahead of it (70s and 80s), below normal on Saturday (50s), and slightly above normal on Sunday (60s). Freezing temperatures will be possible both Saturday and Sunday mornings with lows in the 20s, otherwise lows will be in the 30s and 40s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1139 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 VFR conditions remain forecast for this TAF period gusts around 20 knots are forecast through the afternoon before becoming light and variable after sunset before gradually becoming northerly early Tuesday morning. There is potential for some LLWS again for each terminal but confidence is currently too low to include in this TAF. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 123 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Tuesday continues to be a very tricky day when it comes to fire weather forecasting. Any fire weather potential will be based on the placement of a low pressure system. Majority of guidance continues to show further north positioning low which would favor multiple hours of fire weather conditions across Cheyenne (CO), Wallace, Greeley and Wichita counties. I do have concerns however of a southern low placement which would mitigate winds and critical fire weather conditions would not occur. Confidence is just barely at 40- 45% for multiple hours of critical fire weather across the watch area. For the potential for confusion for fire partners, if I was not surrounded by Red Flag Warnings I would have held off on the watch as I have been noticing southern trends which would be on par with what the ECMWF ensembles and ECMWF-AI has been hinting at for the past few days and systems the past few days as well have shifted features south which is what is hurting the wind across the Red Flag area today. If the northern positioning of the low were to occur then multiple hours of critical fire weather conditions would occur across the Fire Weather Watch area with wind gusts of 30-40 mph. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for KSZ027>029-041-042. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for KSZ004-015-016-028-029-041-042. CO...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for COZ254. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Trigg LONG TERM...024 AVIATION...Trigg FIRE WEATHER...Trigg  954 FXUS66 KSEW 131927 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 1227 PM PDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Showers will continue through tonight. The next weather system will move into the area on Tuesday, bringing lowland rain, mountain snow, and breezy winds to western Washington. Precipitation will linger into Wednesday, with drier weather expected Thursday into the weekend. Cold, near-freezing morning lows are expected for portions of the south Sound and Chehalis Valley on Thursday. Chances of precipitation return late in the weekend into early next week. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Showery and unsettled conditions will continue through the remainder of the day today. Cloudy conditions and afternoon highs will generally be in the low to mid 50s across the area. The next system will then move into the area on Tuesday, bringing the next round of lowland rain, mountain snow, and breezy winds. Mountain snow will continue into Wednesday and isolated chances of thunderstorms will be possible in the wake of the system. Additional details on the hazards have been outlined below: Winds: Southerly winds will increase across western Washington through the morning hours on Tuesday. Wind gusts will generally be between 25-40 mph, though isolated gusts to 45 mph will be possible at times. With new foliage on trees, tree damage may be possible with any gusts between 35-45 mph. Winds will gradually ease area-wide again late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Mountain Snow: Snow levels will start out between 3000-4000 ft on Tuesday, but will fall to 1000-1500 ft by Wednesday, bringing accumulating snow for the mountains- especially for the Cascade passes. The heaviest snow will occur Tuesday night into Wednesday morning and will be for elevations generally above 2500 ft. Snow will linger through the day Wednesday, before tapering late Wednesday night into Thursday. Rain: This system will bring the next round of lowland rain to the region. The most likely rainfall amounts for the interior lowlands look to be between 0.50-1 inch, with the typical shadowed areas generally expected to see a little less- between 0.25-0.50 inches. Areas along the coast will see the most rain, with rainfall amounts generally expected to range between 1-1.25 inches from Tuesday morning through Wednesday night. Thunderstorms: A slight chance of thunderstorms will be possible in the cool post-frontal airmass on Wednesday. The most likely areas for any thunderstorm development will be along the Pacific Coast. Any isolated thunderstorms that do develop may produce dangerous lightning, gusty winds, small hail, and brief heavy downpours. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Drier conditions are expected the second half of the week with high pressure building back into the region. Clearing skies overnight will allow for temperatures to dip into the low to mid 30s across much of the area by Thursday morning. Most likely spots to approach freezing will be areas around the south Sound and the Chehalis Valley- where frost will also be possible. Dry conditions will persist through Saturday as the ridge of high pressure moves overhead. Afternoon high temperatures will warm a few degrees each day- topping out in the upper 50s to low 60s across the region by Saturday. An upper level low will then approach the region on Sunday, bringing the return of shower chances to the region. Showers then look to linger into early next week. 14 && .AVIATION... Northwest flow becoming westerly tonight into Tuesday as an upper- low tracks along the BC coast. Mostly VFR so far this afternoon but, MVFR to IFR cigs remain for terminals (KBFI and KPAE) impacted by a PSCZ. Guidance also suggests mostly VFR this evening with the exception of KPAE (IFR/LIFR) where a convergence zone will continue to meander. A stout cold front will arrive at the coast around 14- 16z Tuesday and inland 16-18z. Here MVFR and IFR cigs will become more widespread along with gusty winds. 25 to 30 kt gusts are forecast Tuesday afternoon into the evening. KSEA...Low-end VFR cigs this afternoon as a convergence zone meanders just north of the terminal. Breezy SSW winds will produce gusts up to 20 kt before gradually decreasing after 00z. SSW are forecast to increase again Tuesday morning as a cold front enters. Gusts up to 30 kt are likely during the afternoon and early evening. As the front arrives, low ceilings are to accompany it as MVFR conditions manifest as well. 41 && .MARINE... Surface high pressure resides well offshore in the NE PAC. Onshore flow continues over the area waters as well for the small craft advisory in the Strait of Juan De Fuca for enhanced westerlies. A stronger frontal system is still on track to enter the area late tonight into Wednesday morning for breezy conditions and elevated seas. A small craft advisory remains in effect for all of the coastal water zones starting early Tuesday as S/SW winds increase ahead of the front. New SCAs have also been added for the inland water zones of Puget Sound, Admiralty Inlet, and the Northern Inland waters. Can't rule out the brief the potential for gale strength gusts, particularly in the strait. Coastal seas 4 to 6 ft tonight before increasing upward to 9 to 12 feet on Tuesday evening. Seas 8 to 10 ft through Thursday before decreasing by Friday to 3 to 5 feet. 41 && .HYDROLOGY... With rain moving into the area Tuesday into Wednesday, slight rises on area rivers will be possible. The Skokomish River is expected to rise into Action Stage with the additional precipitation. Snow levels will fall mid week to 1000-1500 ft, but no river flooding is expected at this time. 14 && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Winter Storm Warning from 11 AM Tuesday to 11 PM PDT Wednesday for Cascades of Pierce and Lewis Counties-Cascades of Snohomish and Northern King Counties-Cascades of Southern King County-Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit Counties. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Tuesday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Tuesday to 5 AM PDT Wednesday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm. && $$  662 FXUS64 KSJT 131929 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 229 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New SHORT TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorm chances will persist Monday into Wednesday, with a threat for severe storms each day. - A cold front is expected on Saturday, bringing low rain chances and considerably cooler temperatures for the upcoming weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 228 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Dryline extended just west of West Central Texas from near Snyder south to Big Spring to east of Ft Stockton. There was some cumulus developing west of Crockett county and in the Big Country. SPC Day One Convective Outlook has been increased the marginal risk of severe thunderstorms, to a slight risk in the Big Country, which extended southward into Runnels, Coleman and Brown Counties. The best potential for severe storm this afternoon and evening is across the Big Country and western sections of the Concho Valley and Crockett county, where the short term convective models develop isolated thunderstorms. Instability is quite high with MUCAPES of 3000 J/KG, with effective bulk shears of 40-45 KTS, so if a storm does develop, it could become severe, with large hail and damaging winds. Storms movement will be mainly northwest, but stronger storms could take a right turn eastward. Tuesday, shower and thunderstorm chances will increase as an upper shortwave approaches from the west. While the best lift will be Tuesday night, thunderstorms possible earlier in the day. There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across most of West Central Texas Tuesday. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Monday) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Upper level trough will be situated over the Desert Southwest on Tuesday and will gradually move east across the southern Rockies and into West Texas by Wednesday. The dryline will be west of the area on Tuesday and then mix east into western portions of the forecast area Wednesday afternoon. Large-scale lift will increase across West Texas Tuesday afternoon and evening, with thunderstorms likely developing along and east of the dryline, especially during the evening hours. The potential for severe storms will exist, as storms move east into the area during the evening/overnight period. The main hazards will be large to very large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. Similar setup on Wednesday with another threat for severe storms, as the dryline mixes into western portions of the area by afternoon. Mainly dry Thursday and Friday, although isolated storms are still possible, primarily across the Big Country. The next upper trough will track across the Rockies and into the Plains Friday into Saturday, with an associated cold front expected to move south across the area on Saturday. For now, low rain chances remain in the forecast over the weekend, along with cooler temperatures. Temperatures will be considerably cooler behind the front, with highs in the 70s on Saturday and in the upper 60s and lower 70s by Sunday. Overnight temperatures will be chilly, with lows mainly in the mid and upper 40s over the weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 An isolated thunderstorm may affect KABI or KSJT late afternoon into early evening, but left out mention due to low potential. Band of stratus with MVFR ceilings affecting KSOA and KBBD at noon will lift to VFR 19-20Z. Stratus with MVFR ceilings otherwise returns toward midnight for KSOA and KJCT, lowering to IFR by daybreak. Ceilings at KSOA may stay IFR through 18Z Tuesday. MVFR stratus returns across the rest of the terminals by daybreak, rising to VFR early afternoon. Gusty south winds will affect KABI and KSJT this afternoon, and again mid morning Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 68 81 65 82 / 20 40 80 60 San Angelo 65 79 62 82 / 20 40 70 50 Junction 64 80 62 79 / 20 30 50 50 Brownwood 65 80 63 78 / 20 40 60 60 Sweetwater 68 82 64 84 / 20 40 70 40 Ozona 65 75 62 80 / 30 40 60 40 Brady 66 78 64 76 / 20 30 50 50 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...04  673 FXUS63 KSGF 131932 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 232 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy southerly winds will occur today and Tuesday, with southerly winds gusting up to 30-40 mph at times each afternoon. - There is the potential for severe thunderstorms across the area on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday into Saturday. - Marginal excessive rainfall concerns through the week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A chaotic synoptic pattern is evident in satellite products and model data today. In the upper levels, high pressure in the Gulf is creating ridging over the southeast U.S. and southern east coast, with more zonal flow over the upper Midwest/Great Lakes/northern east coast. A deep cutoff low is moving onto the California coast, with several shortwaves coming out of the Pacific northwest. Lower into the midlevels, a low pressure center is evident over Nebraska, which extends down to the surface. Southwest flow across the Ozarks is observed at all levels due to this low to our northwest. As it pushes into western Iowa today and tomorrow, the pressure gradient in southern Missouri tightens (particularly in the west), and we can expect some breezy conditions. Though the southwest flow is streaming plenty of warmth and moisture into our area, the 12Z upper air sounding from this morning clearly shows a very stout inversion around 800 mb that is just not realistically breakable. The convective temperature is 86 degrees, and with plenty of cloud cover todays, highs are expected to top out around 80 degrees. It appears some models are not getting the message, as a few of them try to pop out some isolated showers toward south-central Missouri this afternoon. Some low (<20%) PoPs account for this low-probability scenario. Winds decrease a bit after sunset, but clouds largely stick around, limiting radiational cooling while WAA continues overnight. Temperatures will only cool to around 70 with some mid-60s in lower elevation areas. A dryline extends south from the low pressure center in Nebraska, bisecting Oklahoma and continuing all the way down into Mexico. This will be the feature to blame for our severe weather threat Tuesday. As drylines tend to do, it hangs out here for today, wiggling back and forth a bit with nearly boundary-parallel surface flow. While the inversion/cap is too strong to allow for appreciable convection today, tomorrow looks to overcome the (weaker) cap with a much more moist profile and a little more daytime warming with highs in the mid-80s (convective temperature closer to 80 Tuesday). Instability of 1000-2000+ J/kg, steep lapse rates, and deep layer shear 30-50 kts will support supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and (to a lesser extent) tornadoes. The risk would be highest in the west/northwest and diminish to the east/southeast. This activity is expected to initiate in the afternoon and remain severe into the evening before transitioning to sub-severe convection that lingers into Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Low pressure swings through the area Wednesday, bringing a cold front that disrupts the stagnant dryline. The rain from Tuesday night continues through the day Wednesday, but the extra push from the cold front Wednesday night will bring another round of severe potential. A brief window of uncapped instability focused along the western Missouri border will have the potential to support convection, though this is a bit more uncertain given the morning precipitation. At worst, convection will be capable of large hail and damaging winds. Rain may linger into Thursday morning, ending west to east as the cold front lifts away to the north and support for precipitation ends. Without a true frontal passage, highs Thursday are still around 80. We'll see some clearing and sun Thursday, a welcome break from the rain before a more aggressive cold front swings through Friday night, finally bringing a pattern change from the southwest flow we've had all week. The SPC highlights Slight- equivalent severe potential with this frontal passage, and if this holds, more details on timing and expected severe hazards will be forthcoming. The new airmass will be quite obvious once the rain passes on Saturday, with highs over the weekend only reaching the mid-60s for most. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1244 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Windy conditions with intermittent low ceilings this period. Borderline MVFR ceilings to start, becoming VFR through the rest of the day into the overnight. LLWS concerns between 00Z and 12Z with ceilings lowering again to low VFR/high MVFR heights. Ceilings lift to VFR to end the period. Gusty southwest surface winds throughout the period, sustained 15-20 kts and gusting 20-30 kts. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Record High Temperatures: April 13: KVIH: 87/2025 April 14: KSGF: 88/1936 KVIH: 87/2006 KUNO: 86/2024 April 15: KUNO: 84/9999 April 16: KVIH: 85/2006 April 17: KSGF: 87/1937 KVIH: 86/2004 KUNO: 87/2006 Record High Minimum Temperatures: April 13: KSGF: 65/1890 April 14: KSGF: 67/2006 April 15: KSGF: 63/2006 April 17: KSGF: 66/1976 && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Nelson LONG TERM...Nelson AVIATION...Nelson CLIMATE...Camden  772 FXUS61 KALY 131932 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 332 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes were made with this forecast iteration. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Isolated strong to potentially severe thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening threaten to bring strong to locally damaging wind gusts that could lead to isolated downed trees and/or power lines, power outages, and property damage 2. The threat for impactful weather is low from Wednesday through the end of the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... We have officially become locked into the warm sector of a surface low currently centered in eastern Quebec with a warm front now displaced to our east and a cold front to our west. Scattered showers associated with warm front are presently departing to the east whilst another batch is entering our northwestern CWA boundary in association with a surface trough rounding the base of the low. Dew point depressions on the order of 14 to 20 degrees have greatly limited the amount of rainfall that has been observed at the surface despite sufficient-looking reflectivities observed on the KENX radar throughout much of the morning into this afternoon. In fact, all measurable rainfall has been confined to the higher elevations of the Southern Adirondacks and Eastern Catskills where orographic enhancement has helped to overcome low-level dry air. As the aforementioned surface trough and an upper-level shortwave push through the region this evening, additional scattered showers will track through the region, primarily confined to the Southern Adirondacks and Mid-Hudson Valley. An embedded rumble of thunder is possible in the Eastern Catskills, but with minimal instability, this is very isolated potential. Showers taper off shortly after dark this evening as dry air advects into the region ahead of the cold front. Tomorrow will bring the potential for isolated to highly scattered strong to locally severe thunderstorms as the cold front approaches and stalls across or just north of our northern zones. Still within the warm sector of the aforementioned low, southerly to southwesterly flow will force continued moisture and warm air advection to help initiate and then maintain destabilization. Though upper-level forcing for ascent is weak, there is an embedded shortwave within the zonal flow aloft that will send a weak vorticity maximum through the region tomorrow afternoon. This should help to increase upward ascent as weak surface waves propagate off the boundary. Maximum SBCAPE values on the order of 500-1000 J/kg and isolated, local maximums up to 1500 J/kg will align with steepening mid-level lapse rates and high DCAPE to threaten strong to locally damaging wind gusts as the primary hazard resulting from any severe thunderstorms. This is ultimately what drove the Marginal Risk for severe weather across much of our area from SPC. At this point, the CAMs are still highly varied in their depictions of the coverage of severe storms given the lack of a distinct frontal passage in the lower levels and upper trough aloft. That said, the orientation of the 1 and 6 km shear vectors indicate a cellular storm mode to start with a potential merging or clustering of cells as the event draws onward. SPC HREF ensemble paintball plots seem to indicate the most agreement in individual cells occurring across portions of the Hudson Valley with potential cluster or borderline linear segments developing over the Southern Adirondacks and possibly in the Mid-Hudson Valley and western New England areas. The HRRR seems to be the most representative of this solution at this time so we erred on that element of guidance when developing the forecast. That said, potentially expansive cloud cover amid a moist environment could be a limiting factor to storms becoming severe tomorrow. KEY MESSAGE 2... Above normal temperatures are anticipated throughout much of the remainder of the week and into the weekend with additional rounds of showers and potential thunderstorms as weak shortwaves pulse along the northern periphery of a building ridge in the south. A Marginal Risk for severe weather was just introduced for portions of the Eastern Catskills for Wednesday where an isolated severe thunderstorm with strong to isolated damaging wind gusts cannot be ruled out. However, for the most part, the overall probability of impactful weather Wednesday through the weekend is low given the low severe weather threat and the low amount of rainfall that will not pose any hydro concerns. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Fast moving disturbance, aided by a weak surface trough, has been allowing for some light rain showers this afternoon. Based on radar trends and CAMs, best chance for additional showers will be across northern areas near KGFL. Recent and nearby surface observations have been showing limited impacts on visibility and ceilings from these showers, due to dry air at low levels and fairly limited forcing, so won't expect much impact on the TAF sites. Will include a brief tempo for MVFR conditions at KGFL over next few hours, otherwise, it should stay VFR through the rest of the afternoon hours. South to southwest winds have been gusty, although not nearby as strong as what was indicated in the previous TAF. Will continue to mention sustained winds of 10 to 15 kts, with some gusts in the 20-26 kt range, mainly for KALB and KPSF through the afternoon hours. These winds should decrease this evening with the loss of daytime mixing. For tonight, flying conditions will generally be VFR. There will be bkn-ovc cigs around 3500-5000 ft for a good portion of the overnight, with some clearing late. A lingering breeze, dry low levels and enough clouds should keep any fog from developing tonight. Westerly winds will gradually lower to around 5 kts by the late night hours. Flying conditions will start VFR for Tuesday, but lowering ceilings are expected by afternoon, as a band of showers and possible thunderstorms approach. Will mention MVFR cigs towards midday with south to southwest winds around 10 kts. Best chance for precip will be towards the end of the TAF period (ending as 18z Tuesday) and into the late afternoon hours. Outlook... Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures(Year Set): Tuesday April 14: Albany: 89(2023) Glens Falls: 84(2023) Poughkeepsie: 91(2023) Wednesday April 15: Albany: 86(2003) Glens Falls: 84(2003) Poughkeepsie: 84(2003) Thursday April 16: Albany: 91(2012) Glens Falls: 89(2002) Poughkeepsie: 91(2012) && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...12 AVIATION...27 CLIMATE...07  955 FXHW60 PHFO 131933 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 933 AM HST Mon Apr 13 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Light to moderate rain continues across the western portion of the state as the rain band gradually meanders westward. Light and variable winds will favor daily land and sea breezes through midweek. By the latter half of the weak, gentle trades and quiet weather return to the forecast. && .SHORT TERM UPDATE... Issued at 928 AM HST Mon Apr 13 2026 A band of mostly light showers remains over the western end of the state this morning, with isolated to scattered light showers moving in on the southwest flow elsewhere. Most of the rainfall in the last 3 hours has been focused over Oahu, with a few hundredths to a couple tenths of an inch recorded at most locations. Hi-res model guidance suggests that shower activity will diminish this afternoon, then additional light to moderate showers may reorganize along a weakly convergent boundary near Kauai overnight and persist in the vicinity through Tuesday. For the rest of the island chain, with light winds prevailing, and if diurnal heating is strong enough, land and sea breeze activity may bring interior showers during the day and partial clearing overnight for the rest of the island chain. Otherwise, isolated light showers will move in on the southwest flow. A Wind Advisory was issued for the Big Island summits this morning through the afternoon for a brief uptick in the southwest flow at summit level. Summit winds are expected to trend down by this && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 358 AM HST Mon Apr 13 2026 Latest radar imagery continues to show remnant showers developing across the smaller Hawaiian Islands. These showers have been showing predominately less than a tenth of an inch per hour across the state, with some locally higher amounts across leeward Big Island. Despite this, opting to cancel the remaining Flood Watch for Kauai through Maui as a result. The threat for widespread flash flooding has decreased across the Hawaiian Islands, therefore, the Flood Watch has been cancelled. However, due to lingering moisture and saturated grounds, some minor flooding may still occur in areas affected by heavy showers. Winds across the state are anticipated to be light and variable beginning tomorrow, favoring onshore sea breezes each afternoon, which may result in some showers as the lingering airmass over the islands remains moisture-rich. Moreover, dewpoints are expected to remain in the upper-60s throughout the week, maintaining high humidity levels that will persist until trades return. As the low pressure system, once anchored north of the islands, finally dislodged and moved northeastward away from the Hawaiian Islands by mid-week -- and with it, the band of rainfall. A broad area of high pressure quickly builds in its wake, opening the door for light trades to make a return by the latter half of the week. Trades remain quite light and are not expected to make much of a profound effect on the local humidity levels. However, for the first time in several weeks, there is no potential event forthcoming for the Hawaiian Islands. && .AVIATION... Issued at 928 AM HST Mon Apr 13 2026 Stratiform rain will continue to impact the islands today, however generally VFR conditions are expected due to the light intensity of the rain. MVFR conditions are most likely at more elevated sites such as Molokai and Lanai, as well as under periodic bursts of heavier rain. The forecast generally trends back toward benign trades by the midweek. AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for mountain obscuration for Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, and Lanai. This may be reconsidered later today, however, if ceilings generally remain above 030. AIRMET Tango also remains in effect for moderate turbulence over the islands from 120 to FL350, however this may be altered depending on what PIREPs report later today. Moderate icing is possible so long as this ongoing system remains over the islands. && .MARINE... Issued at 928 AM HST Mon Apr 13 2026 A weak surface trough remains draped across the state, leading to pockets of variable winds over the central islands. Winds may be moderate to locally fresh when enhanced near island terrain, such as southeast near the Big Island or south near Kauai. The surface trough weakens and lifts out the latter half of the week. High pressure begins to take over at the surface, causing gentle to moderate easterly trades to gradually develop across the Hawaiian coastal waters by this weekend. A small, medium-period northwest swell will diminish today. However, small surf will be maintained along north and west facing shores by a reinforcing pulse on Tuesday. Following this, northwest swell energy declines through the rest of the week. A medium-period south swell will continue to decline today as well. A new south swell arrives on Tuesday, once again providing a boost to surf along south facing shores through mid week before gradually subsiding into the weekend. Surf along east facing shores will remain below seasonal average with lighter than average trade winds near and upstream of the islands forecast through next week. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Big Island Summits. && $$ SHORT TERM UPDATE...Farris DISCUSSION...Pierce AVIATION...Evans MARINE...Bravender  376 FXUS63 KILX 131935 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 235 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - The stretch of warm weather is expected to last through at least Friday, with daily temperatures climbing into the upper 70s and lower 80s, with mid 80s likely on Tuesday and Friday. Breezy south to southwest winds, occasionally reaching 25-35 mph, will accompany this warm period this week. - This week will be riddled with thunderstorm potential. Tuesday afternoon and evening, Wednesday afternoon and evening, and Friday night into Saturday morning currently exhibit the highest probability (15-30%) of severe weather. - There is also potential for substantial accumulative rainfall throughout the week, with our multi-model ensemble predicting a medium (40-60%) chance of exceeding 2 inches through Saturday in areas along and north of I-72. .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A subtle mid level short wave lifting ne has scattered convection ne of I-74, with a few strong to severe storms ne of Pontiac with hail where unstable air mass (MUCAPES over 2000 j/kg) and steep mid level lapse rates with 30-40 kt bulk shear values. SPC day 1 update has marginal to slight risk from I-72 north this afternoon for mainly large hail, though the better risk of severe storms appears to have passed ne of CWA at mid afternoon. Still could be a few isolated strong to locally severe cells north of I-74 next few hours for mainly hail chances. Latest CAMs do not show much convection over CWA tonight through early Tue afternoon. Our next best chance of convection will drop down from WI and northern IL into northern CWA during Tue evening and into more of central IL overnight Tue night into Wed morning. SPC Day2 outlook has Marginal risk along and north of I-70 for late Tue afternoon and Tue night, with slight risk along and north of I-72 and enhanced risk far northern CWA north of a Galesburg to Henry line. Areas north of Peoria are outlook for more significant risk of larger hail 2 inch or bigger and EF2 or stronger tornadoes. The 10% or higher risk of tornadoes (EF2 or stronger) just just north of Knox and Stark counties. Very warm highs 82-87F on Tue with moist dewpoints in the 60s and breezy SSW to SW winds gusting to 30 mph. Will be approaching record highs in upper 80s in a few locations Tue and again Friday. The main cold front is nw of IL much of this work week. Surface low pressure ejects ne into the upper MS river valley late Wed afternoon and brings the cold front se into central IL during Wed night. Will likely see a round of showers/thunderstorms along and ahead of this front Wed afternoon into Wed night. SPC Day3 outlook has marginal to slight risk of severe storms Wed afternoon/evening, with the slight risk nw of the IL river. Highs Wed in the upper 70s/lower 80s, with mid 80s far se IL by Lawrenceville. Models differ with convection chances on Thu as Ecmwf keeps high chances of showers/thunderstorms on Thu while NAM mainly has pcpn in southeast IL and GFS and GEM in between. NBM keeps fairly high pops around Thu though severe risk looks low. Thu night and Fri morning looks drier/lull in convection chances. Deepening mid/upper level trof over the Rockies last this week to eject stronger storm system into the Midwest by Fri night into Sat with passage of a stronger cold front. This will likely be our next best chance of convection Fri night into Sat and could be risk of strong to severe storms too, though not in an official SPC outlook yet during this time frame. Much cooler air arrives Sat night and Sunday behind front with highs Sunday 55-60F and lows Sat night in upper 30s/lower 40s and mid to upper 30s Sunday night. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1243 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Breezy south-southwest winds will continue through the TAF period as a low pressure system passes by to the north. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are ongoing in west-central Illinois early this afternoon and may linger through at least early this evening. Although confidence remains somewhat low in coverage and timing of storms, the best chances appear to be at northern airfields (KPIA, KBMI, KCMI), which is where PROB30 groups are mentioned. Ceilings outside of shower and storm activity should be VFR through most of the TAF period, with a low to moderate chance (30-50%) for MVFR ceilings spreading in after 12Z. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...07 DISCUSSION...07 AVIATION...NMA  841 FXUS63 KJKL 131937 AAD AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 337 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Unseasonably warm conditions are expected for much of the next week. - The warmest days are forecast to be Tuesday through Saturday. New daily record high temperatures are possible, if not likely, on the warmest days. - Scattered light rain showers are possible through early this evening, with little in the way of measurable rainfall. - Shower chances and small thunderstorm chances return late tonight and linger into Tuesday. Additional showers/storms are possible at times through this week and into the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1128 AM EDT MON APR 13 2026 Showers were measuring at several locations in Central KY and pops were increased over the next couple of hours across northern portions of the area as that activity moves east across portions of eastern KY. Additional hourly grids have been updated based on recent observation trends. UPDATE Issued at 737 AM EDT MON APR 13 2026 Made additional tweaks to PoPs through the Today period based on latest NBM guidance and current radar trends. These showers are producing little to no measurable rainfall as they are moving quickly and falling from mid-level clouds through a dry low-level environment, and that trend likely continues through early this evening. UPDATE Issued at 530 AM EDT MON APR 13 2026 Pre-dawn update is out with an update to PoPs to match current radar trends. This shower activity is elevated and falling from rather high cloud bases over a deep, dry low-level environment. Would thus expect any rainfall amounts to be a trace just barely measurable, with gusty outflow winds also possible due to evaporational cooling as precipitation falls into the dry low- level environment. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 300 AM EDT MON APR 13 2026 A stagnant mid- and upper-level pattern is in place across the Eastern CONUS, with a broad trough across the western CONUS and a positively-tilted ridge over the Southeast CONUS. Eastern Kentucky resides on the southern and southeastern periphery of an active jet stream that extends from the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes to northern Mid-Atlantic and New England regions. Despite warm advection continuing through the period providing broad yet unfocused forcing for ascent, the mid-level flow over eastern Kentucky remains, and will remain, broadly anticyclonic, with disturbances grazing the area within this overall regime. A shortwave exits the northern Ohio River Valley this morning, leaving warm advection in its wake but weak shortwave ridging through the remainder of the day. Given broad unfocused forcing for ascent with the warm advection, a continued dry lower atmosphere, and little if any instability, ProbThunder grids were reduced significantly and all thunderstorm mentions for this morning through this evening were removed, with only scattered light rain showers falling from mid-level clouds today resulting in only light precipitation. Another shortwave pushes a little better moisture and instability into the area from the west overnight, especially in our northern areas, with low shower and thunderstorm chances increasing again after midnight and continuing into the day Tuesday. The best chance for seeing any isolated to widely scattered activity will be north of KY Highway 80, with areas near the Tennessee border likely missing out yet again. High temperatures will return to the mid- to upper-80s Tuesday under mostly sunny skies after cooling to the upper 70s to lower 80s today under mostly cloudy skies. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 301 AM EDT MON APR 13 2026 Ridging at the surface and aloft over the southeast CONUS will remain persistent during most of the long term period. A mean, positively tilted upper level trough will be situated mainly over the western half of the CONUS, with an associated, wavering frontal boundary from the southern plains to Great Lakes. Ascending flow off the Gulf (with higher moisture content) will be more predominant further to our west and northwest, closer to the aforementioned frontal boundary, and that is where the higher POPs will be in general. However, occasional shortwave troughs pressing into the upper level ridge as they pass through the flow will probably be enough to bring scattered showers/thunderstorms into our area at times. The GFS and ECMWF agree on the two most prominent waves giving us our highest POPs on Thursday into Thursday night, and again on Saturday night into Sunday. Without any cold frontal passages through Saturday, much above temperatures will dominate the period, with temperatures influenced by the potential occurrence of clouds/precip. The most significant wave aloft will be the one next weekend, which is expected to be strong enough to finally bring another cold frontal passage, with somewhat lower temperatures by Sunday. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT MON APR 13 2026 VFR prevailed at TAF issuance time. Showers were moving across the region, though these were not resulting in reductions below VFR. Some gusts from the southwest of 20KT were occurring, with a few briefly stronger gusts on the leading edge of the shower activity. Showers should diminish from west to east/northwest to southeast during the first 6 hours of the period. Southwest winds will average between 6 and 13KT to begin the period, though these should diminish toward with the loss of daytime heating. Winds will increase aloft as a disturbance approaches after about 04Z which will result in a marginal LLWS threat between about 06Z and 12Z. Some shower or thunderstorm activity may affect locations near and north of I-64 including KIOB and KSYM prior to 12Z as the disturbance approaches. This activity should spread southeast to end the period and could bring brief sub VFR reductions. Southwest winds at 5 to 15KT with gusts to around 20KT should return to end the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...CMC LONG TERM...HAL/CMC AVIATION...JP  901 FXUS62 KMLB 131939 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 339 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 300 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 - Remaining dry over the next several days with a warming trend; Near record highs in the lower 90s this weekend over the interior. - Next cold front forecast to cross the area Monday and bring a small chance for showers. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Thru Tonight...Mostly pleasant conditions with easterly wind flow, breezy at times with gusts up to 20 mph, decreasing after sunset. Fair weather stratocumulus clouds will push westward while very high (cirrus) clouds stream eastward at 30-35k ft. Near seasonable temps falling into the upper 50s and lower 60s by morning, except holding in the upper 60s along the immediate coast due to the onshore flow. Tue-Sun...High pressure ridge axis north of the area through mid week will shift southward and reach central FL late this week and into the weekend. This will allow low level onshore winds to weaken. And combined with a persistent high pressure ridge aloft, dry conditions are forecast with a gradual warming trend over the next several days. Highs in the low to mid 80s into midweek, will increase to the mid to upper 80s across the interior Thursday, with near 90/low 90s forecast across inland areas Friday thru Sunday. These above normal temperatures will be near record highs for interior sites, with Leesburg having the best chance to tie or break their daily record on Saturday. Not as warm along the east coast due to the sea breeze which will hold max temps to the mid 80s this weekend. Mon...The next cool front is forecast to cross the area and knock temperatures back down to seasonable levels in the low to mid 80s. NBM shows rain chances at 20 percent which largely splits the difference between the drier ECMWF (10 percent) and relatively wetter GFS (30-35 percent). Both models show a period of gusty/windy NE to E winds developing behind the front and continuing into Tue. && .MARINE... Issued at 300 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Boating conditions are showing gradual improvement as winds begin to decrease especially across the northern and central waters. A little tighter pressure gradient across the southern (Treasure coast) waters will support 15-20 knots into this eve. And seas 5-6 FT will support a Caution headline for the southern waters to start. High pressure ridge axis will slowly press southward and reach central FL and adjacent Altc waters late this week. Onshore flow largely prevailing with speeds 5-15 knots. Seas subside 3-5 FT Tue/Wed, 3-4 FT Thu and 2-3 FT Fri/Sat. Dry conditions forecast to continue for the next 5 days. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 139 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 VFR conditions through the TAF period. Easterly winds of 10-15 KT with gusts to 25 KT this afternoon. Winds then settle back to 5-10 KT after 00Z (closer to 10 KT along the coast from MLB southward). East to southeast winds will increase to 8-12 KT by mid morning with gusts to 15-20 KT, especially along the coast from MLB southward. Dry conditions through the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 300 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 High pressure ridge axis will settle southward and reach central Florida late this week allowing winds to gradually decrease. East winds will still become breezy at the coast Tuesday afternoon behind the sea breeze at 15 to 20 mph. Dry conditions are forecast through at least Friday with a gradual warming trend taking place. Min RH values of 35-40 percent are forecast across Lake County Tuesday, and lower 30-35 percent near and northwest of the I-4 corridor from mid to late week. However, wind speeds will be less than 15 mph there. Dispersion values will be Good to Very Good Tuesday and Wednesday. $$ .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 63 81 61 81 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 63 84 61 84 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 67 79 66 79 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 65 80 63 80 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 61 86 61 86 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 61 84 60 84 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 63 84 62 85 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 65 80 62 80 / 0 0 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kelly AVIATION...Watson  677 FXUS66 KLOX 131942 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 1242 PM PDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .SYNOPSIS...13/1205 AM. Scattered rain and mountain snow showers will continue at times through the afternoon, mainly over the interior and the Central Coast. Dry and warmer weather is expected the rest of this week. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...13/847 AM. ***UPDATE*** The main story today is the potential for lingering showers and thunderstorms as a very cold (for mid April) upper low hangs nearby to the north. Modest instability and strong mid level lapse rates support a 10-30 percent chance of thunderstorms this afternoon to early evening with the highest probability from the LA County mountains and Antelope Valley foothills west to the Ventura County mountains. Main storm hazards will be brief heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and cloud-to-ground lightning. Although a weak/brief tornado cannot be ruled out, especially across eastern LA County, focused across the mountains into the Antelope Valley. Storm motion will generally be south to east 10-30 mph following steering motion aloft, limiting localized flooding concerns, however a few storms could become anchored in place. Peak rainfall rates will generally be around a quarter of an inch or less per hour. However, any training of or anchored storms could produce very localized rates on the order of 0.5-0.75 inches in one hour. ***From Previous Discussion*** Brisk and dry westerly flow is over the area. There are clouds pushed up against the north slopes where some snow flurries may also occur. A weak convergence zone is also bringing some showers to the Long Beach area. Later this morning a weak impulse will move over the area. The high April sun angle and mostly clear morning skies will bring low level heating to the area esp the mtns. The trof will bring cool air aloft and lift. These two things will combine to bring a chc of showers and slight chc of TSTMs late this morning and into the early evening. Additional rainfall will not be much except for isolated heavier amounts under any TSTMs that form. Snow levels will range from 4500 to 5000 ft today. The morning will see snow across the north slopes, but the afternoon will have the showers and TSTMs. These snow levels and the showers and TSTMs along with the gusty winds will create winter weather advisory conditions and the Winter Weather Advisory has been extended until 700 pm this evening. It will be breezier than normal esp in the Antelope Vly. The sunshine will overwhelm the cold air advection and max temps will rise 1 to 3 locally 4 or 5 degrees over most areas. Max temps will still end up 5 to 10 degrees blo normal. Weak ridging will set up on Tuesday and continue into Wednesday. There will be onshore flow to the east. In the north south direction there will be weak offshore flow in the morning and weak onshore flow in the afternoon as the gradients follow the typical diurnal pattern. Skies will be at worst partly cloudy. Max temps will rise both days. Look for 3 to 6 locally 8 degrees on Tue with an additional 1 to 2 degrees on Wednesday. Wednesday's highs will top out in the upper 60s across the csts and in the lower to mid 70s across the vlys. Max temps will still be a couple degrees blo normal. .LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...13/314 AM. An inside slider is expected to work its way down the state line on Thursday, followed by dry NW to N flow on Friday. Thursday morning will feature onshore flow to the east and offshore flow from the north. On Friday there will be weak offshore flow from both the north and east in the morning. There will not be much wind on Thursday, but Thursday night and Friday decent north flow will develop in the mtns with advisory level gusts likely through the I-5 corridor and the Santa Barbara county mountains. Max temps will not change much on Thursday, but the offshore flow will bring 2 to 4 degrees of warming to most of the area on Friday. On Saturday the upper flow turn westerly. There will still be some offshore flow at the sfc, but with no upper support it will only generate sub advisory canyon winds. Max temps will respond to the continued offshore flow and 3 to 5 degrees of additional warm seems likely. This will bring max temps up into the upper 70s to mid 80s for most of csts/vlys which is 4 to 8 degrees above normal. Mdls are struggling a bit with the pattern for Sunday. All mdls show a large upper low spinning somewhere to the NW but there is massive disagreement on the location. For now the forecast is similar to Saturday with just a little cooling across the csts as the offshore flow weakens. && .AVIATION...13/1511Z. At 1530Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer or inversion. Overall, high confidence in 18Z TAF package as VFR conditions are expected for all sites through the period. There is a 20% chance of showers this afternoon/evening at KWJF and KPMD. KLAX...High confidence in 18Z TAF as VFR conditions are expected through the period. No significant easterly wind component is expected. KBUR...High confidence in 18Z TAF as VFR conditions are expected through the period. && .MARINE...13/811 AM. For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Friday, high confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds. On Thursday afternoon and Thursday night, there is a 30-40% chance of GALE force winds. For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Thursday, high confidence in SCA level winds during the afternoon and evening hours. On Friday, the chances for SCA level winds drop to 30-40%. Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through tonight, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds, especially across western portions. For Tuesday through Thursday, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel, but only a 20-30% chance elsewhere across the southern Inner Waters. On Friday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Winter Weather Advisory now in effect until 7 PM PDT this evening for zones 353-376>380. (See LAXWSWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Munroe/Rorke AVIATION...RAT MARINE...RAT SYNOPSIS...Gomberg/Ciliberti weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox  108 FXUS63 KGRB 131944 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 244 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms will develop late this afternoon and continue into the overnight hours with hail in excess of 2 inches, damaging winds and a tornado possible with the strongest storms. The highest risk is across central Wisconsin. - Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches across parts of central into east-central Wisconsin may lead to additional flood concerns through tonight. - An active stretch of weather continues through late week with continued periods of showers and storms. The risk area for severe storms shifts south on Tuesday, but extends north into parts of central and east-central Wisconsin. - Minor to moderate river flooding is ongoing or forecast to occur on several area rivers. Expect many rivers to rise this week due to additional rain and runoff from Upper Michigan, with the greatest impacts expected on the Menominee River, where some locations may see major flooding during the mid to late part of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Tonight: Severe Storms/Heavy Rain Early afternoon surface analysis indicated a surface low over central Nebraska with a warm front snaking eastward across northern Iowa into central Wisconsin. MLCAPE has increased to around 1000 J/kg across central Wisconsin with some inhibition noted. Late this afternoon, expect more focused storm initiation/intensification generally in the vicinity of the warm front and nose of the low- level jet. Surface-based instability is maximized over central Wisconsin (1000-2000 J/kg) by late this afternoon with effective shear around 40-50 kts. Combined with steep lapse rates already sampled by the 18Z GRB RAOB, the environment will be supportive of large to very large hail. The tornado risk likely will be highest along the warm front from west-central Wisconsin into perhaps central Wisconsin as the low-level jet increases early this evening and overlaps the warm front/instability axis. Damaging wind risk will depend on the degree of upscale growth/organization of storms. Overall, the severe weather risk lessens with northward extent. Precipitable water values remain near the top of climatology for mid April. HREF probability matched mean 24-hr rainfall is in the 1 to 3 inch range across parts of central into east-central Wisconsin through tonight, on the nose of the low-level jet. However, rainfall amounts will depend on the organization and degree of training. This rainfall could exacerbate already saturated soils. Areas of fog may also develop overnight behind the storms. Tuesday: Additional storms The front slides south on Tuesday with the instability axis also displaced south. The placement of the boundary will impact the northward extent of severe weather during the afternoon/evening. RAP hodographs show lesser low-level shear although an elongated profile favorable for large hail and winds. Currently the highest risk of severe storms is across southern Wisconsin, but could extend into parts of east-central Wisconsin. Wednesday-Monday: Active into the weekend Southwest flow aloft persists into late week keeping the area in a warm, wet pattern. Another shortwave trough will bring additional shower (40-80%) chances Wednesday into Thursday. A more dynamic trough is slated to impact the region late Friday into the weekend bringing additional widespread rainfall and storms. The northward extent of greater instability is somewhat uncertain with this system, impacting severe weather potential, but this will be something to watch in the coming days. Drier and cooler weather is expected behind this system for early next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1251 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Widespread showers and storms will develop late this afternoon into the overnight hours with MFVR/IFR conditions. Initial storms may begin to initiate by 21-22Z today, becoming more widespread this evening. Areas of fog/low clouds will likely persist into Tuesday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 245 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Flooding is expected to continue on several area rivers during the week, and will be exacerbated by periodic heavy rainfall. Runoff from Upper Michigan is still expected to bring moderate to major flooding along the Menominee River, especially during the mid to late part of the week. If you live near a river or stream, keep a close eye on water levels this week and monitor the latest Flood Warnings from the National Weather Service in Green Bay. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for WIZ013-018>022-030-031- 035>040-045-048>050-073-074. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION...JM HYDROLOGY...Kieckbusch/JM  397 FXUS65 KREV 131944 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1244 PM PDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Dry and seasonable for Tuesday. * Strong cold front brings winds and chances for snowfall Wednesday into Thursday. Widespread hard freezes likely Friday morning. * Quiet weather and seasonable temperatures for the upcoming weekend, followed by another storm Monday-Tuesday next week. && .DISCUSSION... * Instability from cold trough overhead will yield a few snow and pellet showers this afternoon into the early evening. Mainly over the Eastern Sierra from Tahoe to Mammoth. 40-60% odds of seeing at least a dusting of snowfall. Patchy fog late tonight in the usual spots such as Truckee. * Rather impressive looking cold front, not uncommon for April, forecast to roll through the Great Basin on Wednesday night into Thursday. That's our next weather maker. Winds will get breezy ahead of it Wednesday afternoon, but the strongest winds are expected for a 3-6 hour period around FROPA Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. Could approach wind advisory levels with 30-50% chances of gusts exceeding 40 MPH. Post-frontal NW flow Thursday afternoon is favorable for strong winds in Mineral Co and along Hwy 95, which can produce sneaky gusts over 50 MPH. * Precip with this front is tricky. It has the look of an inside slider which tend to overperform what most model QPF indicates with strong frontal forcing. RRFS high-res showing showers all the way west to Reno/Tahoe, with rain changing to snow Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The further east you go, the better odds of seeing snowfall. 20-40% odds of measurable snow for Reno/Tahoe, while Winnemucca has 75% chance. This pattern tends to shadow out the Eastern Sierra around Mammoth. In any case definitely a scenario to watch with potential Thursday morning commute impacts if we get snowfall. * Post-frontal cold air is also notable with thicknesses dropping to 528-534 dm late Thursday. Setting the stage for a rather frigid Friday morning if skies clear and winds lighten. Even urban centers like Reno have 40-60% odds of temps dropping below 28F, with 60-100% chances elsewhere. Any early season vegetation and irrigation systems would need to be protected ahead of time. * Relatively quiet and seasonable weekend, with Saturday being the slight favourite to win "pick of the weekend" since winds will start to kick up Sunday afternoon ahead of our next storm. Decent consensus on a Pacific storm impacting the area Monday-Tuesday next week, but as usual many unknowns on rain vs snow vs wind. * Pattern remains what I'd classify as "noisy" next week, with lots of variability between the AI ensemble systems. Some are showing cooler/showers others are more mild/dry, but none show major storms. With a large typhoon in the W Pac headed up into the mid- latitudes, that does tend to perturb the downstream flow enough to lessen confidence in Week 2-3 projections across the Western US. -Chris && .AVIATION... * Cold air aloft will lead to SCT-BKN VFR-MVFR cumulus and stratocumulus through early evening, then dissipating to mostly clear skies tonight. Good confidence (80%) of freezing fog developing overnight and Tuesday morning at TRK and other favored valleys that had precip over the past weekend. * Diurnal instability driven snow and pellet showers are expected (40-60% odds) over the Sierra TVL-MMH-BIH through early evening. Mainly MVFR conditions with mountain obscuration in those showers, but can't rule out some IFR snow showers with brief light accumulations possible on runways in the Eastern Sierra. * Tuesday generally VFR with SCT high clouds associated with storm impacting the Pac NW. Westerly winds will get a little gusty in the afternoon, but gusts generally under 20 knots. Wednesday will see increased aviation impacts from winds and mountain wave turbulence as that storm and strong cold front approach the area. -Chris && .HYDROLOGY... * The colder storms this past weekend brought non-trivial gains in snow water content to the Sierra, particularly between Donner Pass and Mammoth. 3-day SWE increases of 1 to 3" were seen in many NRCS SNOTELs with 4" at Echo Peak and CSSL near Tahoe and 5.2" at Leavitt Lake near Sonora Pass. * Generally April snowfalls don't benefit water supply outlook as much as mid-winter storms due to quicker melt this time of year with longer days and higher sun angles. But with near to below normal temperatures favored the next 1-2 weeks, this snowfall will stick around longer and contribute to April-July streamflow totals at least a little. For sure it keeps things from getting worse. * This plus the likelihood of at least one more low-moderate end storm next week, should buy us 1-3 weeks of delay in what could have been a historically early meltout in the Sierra. * Elsewhere in the region including much of NE California and far N Nevada, snowfall gains were more meager or non-existant. Also any snow that fell on bare ground, like on Peavine near Reno, won't last too long. -Chris/Tim && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$  945 FXUS63 KILX 131945 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 235 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - The stretch of warm weather is expected to last through at least Friday, with daily temperatures climbing into the upper 70s and lower 80s, with mid 80s likely on Tuesday and Friday. Breezy south to southwest winds, occasionally reaching 25-35 mph, will accompany this warm period this week. - This week will be riddled with thunderstorm potential. Tuesday afternoon and evening, Wednesday afternoon and evening, and Friday night into Saturday morning currently exhibit the highest probability (15-30%) of severe weather. - There is also potential for substantial accumulative rainfall throughout the week, with our multi-model ensemble predicting a medium (40-60%) chance of exceeding 2 inches through Saturday in areas along and north of I-72. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A subtle mid level short wave lifting ne has scattered convection ne of I-74, with a few strong to severe storms ne of Pontiac with hail where unstable air mass (MUCAPES over 2000 j/kg) and steep mid level lapse rates with 30-40 kt bulk shear values. SPC day 1 update has marginal to slight risk from I-72 north this afternoon for mainly large hail, though the better risk of severe storms appears to have passed ne of CWA at mid afternoon. Still could be a few isolated strong to locally severe cells north of I-74 next few hours for mainly hail chances. Latest CAMs do not show much convection over CWA tonight through early Tue afternoon. Our next best chance of convection will drop down from WI and northern IL into northern CWA during Tue evening and into more of central IL overnight Tue night into Wed morning. SPC Day2 outlook has Marginal risk along and north of I-70 for late Tue afternoon and Tue night, with slight risk along and north of I-72 and enhanced risk far northern CWA north of a Galesburg to Henry line. Areas north of Peoria are outlook for more significant risk of larger hail 2 inch or bigger and EF2 or stronger tornadoes. The 10% or higher risk of tornadoes (EF2 or stronger) just just north of Knox and Stark counties. Very warm highs 82-87F on Tue with moist dewpoints in the 60s and breezy SSW to SW winds gusting to 30 mph. Will be approaching record highs in upper 80s in a few locations Tue and again Friday. The main cold front is nw of IL much of this work week. Surface low pressure ejects ne into the upper MS river valley late Wed afternoon and brings the cold front se into central IL during Wed night. Will likely see a round of showers/thunderstorms along and ahead of this front Wed afternoon into Wed night. SPC Day3 outlook has marginal to slight risk of severe storms Wed afternoon/evening, with the slight risk nw of the IL river. Highs Wed in the upper 70s/lower 80s, with mid 80s far se IL by Lawrenceville. Models differ with convection chances on Thu as Ecmwf keeps high chances of showers/thunderstorms on Thu while NAM mainly has pcpn in southeast IL and GFS and GEM in between. NBM keeps fairly high pops around Thu though severe risk looks low. Thu night and Fri morning looks drier/lull in convection chances. Deepening mid/upper level trof over the Rockies last this week to eject stronger storm system into the Midwest by Fri night into Sat with passage of a stronger cold front. This will likely be our next best chance of convection Fri night into Sat and could be risk of strong to severe storms too, though not in an official SPC outlook yet during this time frame. Much cooler air arrives Sat night and Sunday behind front with highs Sunday 55-60F and lows Sat night in upper 30s/lower 40s and mid to upper 30s Sunday night. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1243 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Breezy south-southwest winds will continue through the TAF period as a low pressure system passes by to the north. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are ongoing in west-central Illinois early this afternoon and may linger through at least early this evening. Although confidence remains somewhat low in coverage and timing of storms, the best chances appear to be at northern airfields (KPIA, KBMI, KCMI), which is where PROB30 groups are mentioned. Ceilings outside of shower and storm activity should be VFR through most of the TAF period, with a low to moderate chance (30-50%) for MVFR ceilings spreading in after 12Z. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...07 DISCUSSION...07 AVIATION...NMA  499 FXUS63 KMKX 131949 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 249 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms may develop this afternoon with low severe potential across portions of southern WI, but the main focus of the activity will be for the storms that develop along the warm front in central WI this evening and overnight. All severe hazards possible along and south of the warm front as well as flash flooding. - Heavy rain this evening and tonight with the storms resulting in localized higher rainfall exceeding 1-3 inches. Thus a Flood Watch is in effect for counties north of I-94 tonight. Also expected rises on area rivers and cresting above flooding stage with the additional rainfall. - Additional windows for heavy rainfall, flooding, and thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday and again later this week. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 234 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Tonight through Wednesday: Continue to see a very active spring pattern today through Wednesday across southern WI. Strong to severe thunderstorm environment will set up across the area each day varying in location and strength. Will also see heavy rainfall associated with this activity and widespread 1-3 inches possible through the middle of the week, but localized higher rainfall greater than forecast will be possible contributing to flooding impacts. First opportunity for severe and flooding potential will be later today/tonight. Will be another window on Tuesday, which has the better potential for more widespread severe activity over the CWA. Then another window will occur on Wednesday, but will be a bit more uncertain as it depends on what happen today and tomorrow. Rest of this Afternoon: MCV has stayed south more into IL and produced a couple perky thunderstorms. However, the cap is holding across southern WI this afternoon and anything that is trying grow upscale is not making it at this time. Will continue to monitor, but the better chances for development will be later this evening. This Evening into Tonight: Environment still looking primed for convection across central WI with a warm front strewn across the central part of the state as a surface low over NE lifts eastward. In the warm sector south of the main boundary over southern WI seeing SBCAPE exceeding 1000 J/kg and looking to increase toward 1500 J/kg or more through the remainder of afternoon. Paired steep lapse rates around 7-8C/km, dewpoints already in the 60s, and deep layer shear +45kt all will support development through the evening. The bulk of the severe and flooding activity is looking to develop early this evening through tonight generally along and around the warm front boundary toward the northern half of the CWA (generally north of I-94) as the nose of 40-55kt LLJ noses into WI. Still looking to see a few discrete development along the warm front back in west central WI early this evening where the instability and deep layer shear align with the LLJ. All severe hazards will be possible for discrete development south of the warm front and cannot rule a tornado or two as 0-1km SRH increased to around 200 m2/s2. Might see a few discrete sneak into our northwest, but majority of it looks to remain just outside our CWA. However given the easterly flow parallel to the frontal boundary expect to see this activity gradually merge and cluster more into a linear structure through the evening. This will transition the severe threat more toward wind and flooding. The 12z CAMs continue to trend toward a more southern shift in this activity and looking to impact our northern tier of counties through tonight. While damaging winds will be the primary severe threat, the convection training over the same area and producing locally higher amounts exceeding 1-3 inches over saturated soils may leading to localized flash flooding as well as rises on area rivers. Thus have issued a Flood Watch for the areas with the greatest concerns tonight. Expect this cluster to works its way along the boundary overnight with a bulk of the models having it move off and weaken after midnight through early Tuesday morning. Tuesday- Tuesday Night: Another window for severe weather expected for Tuesday. Overall looks to be a bit better set up for southern WI as the front from today's activity is progged to be draped across our area. The main question will be where will the boundary set up as depending which side of the boundary you are on will dictate the severe impacts. We are beginning to see a trend with the frontal boundary bisecting our CWA on the global models as well as on the 12z HREF. If this continues, looking at the better severe potential to be favored toward the southern portion of the CWA. Wherever the front sets up, expect areas along and north of the warm front to be more susceptible to large hail threat as instability will be more elevated north of the surface boundary. Looking at MUCAPE between 1000-2000 J/kg along and north of the boundary paired with the +40kt deep layer shear. While areas along and south of the boundary will be capable of producing more damaging winds and cannot rule out even a few tornadoes in addition to hail. More favorable surface based instability with +1500 J/kg of SBCAPE aligning with the deep layer shear in the warm sector. CAMs also are pinging on increasing low-level SRH exceeding 150-200 m2/s2 supportive of a tornado or two. Storm mode evolution also looks similar to toady as well with convective initiation being more discrete/isolated convection which will be more supportive of supercells and tornado, but CAMs prog this activity to cluster and merge through the evening and thus transitioning to more of a damaging wind and embedded tornado threat. Lastly given saturate grounds and previous days rainfall any heavier rainfall moving over the same area will be susceptible to flash flooding as well as rises on area river above flood stage. Again there will be limited upper-level synoptic forcing for Tuesday activity and mainly be driving by low-level WAA, LLJ, warm frontal boundary, as well as localized mesoscale lift from upstream MCV or remnant outflow from today's convection. So will continue to monitor the hi-ress models guidance through this evening to have a better picture of where things set up. Wednesday: The active spring pattern continues for Wednesday as well. Again still need to see how things pan out Tuesday for exact locations of this activity. However, seeing more upper-level support with the Wednesday round as an upper-level shortwave trough digs across the Plains and lifts over the region. While more favorable upper-level synoptic forcing will be present, the overall surface low track continues to trend over southern WI. This will set up the a frontal boundary more across southern portions of the area, but could see additional shifts. Nevertheless there will be another opportunity for heavy rainfall and severe potential along this system. Will continue to monitor and see if current trends hold or if things shift. Wagner && .LONG TERM... Issued 234 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Thursday through Monday: Finally get a bit of a break in this active pattern on Thursday as an upper-level ridge builds into the region. However, this looks to be short lived as an upper-level trough begins to deepen across the northern Plains and gradually lift into the upper Midwest later Friday into Saturday. The associated surface low looks to track up the Upper Mississippi River Valley during this time which will place southern WI in the warm sector. Again looking at environment that will support increased shower and thunderstorm activity. Given the current pattern and track, will need to keep an eye on strong to severe potential for our western portions of the CWA, but the latest trends in the models has this system a bit slower, thus the better environment looks to be further west. Will continue to monitor and see if this trend continues for this late week system. Behind this late week system, the pattern looks to settle down as the trough pushes into the eastern CONUS while an upper-level ridge looks to build Sunday through the start of next week. Expect mainly drier and mild conditions at this time through this period. Wagner && .AVIATION... Issued 234 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A band of MVFR stratus remains draped across portions of southern WI this afternoon and looks to continue into the evening. Winds will be southerly across much of southern WI this evening. Otherwise, main flight restriction will be associated with heavy rainfall and thunderstorm development this evening into the overnight. Areas mainly north of I-94 are expected to see thunderstorms develop along the warm front and cluster into a line. Expect lower visibilities, gust winds, and heavy rainfall with any of this activity. At this time SBM, looks to have the better chances for seeing this activity, but MSN, UES, and MKE may get clipped later this evening into the overnight. Much of the rain and storms looks to push through west to east between 06z-09z. Lower ceilings may lingering and increase moisture paired with light winds may allow for some fog to develop as well. VFR then look to return after daybreak Tuesday with increase south-southwesterly winds. There will be another window for heavy rainfall and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening bringing another bout of lower flight conditions. Wagner && .MARINE... Issued 234 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 An active heavy rainfall and thunderstorm pattern is expected across the region this afternoon through Wednesday. Will see frontal boundaries stall across the lake at various location each day with increase thunderstorm activity focused along and around it as well. Overall winds are looking fairly light and may contribute to periods of fog over the open waters. Winds will vary depending on where the fronts set up. Portions of the lake south of the boundaries will see predominantly southerly winds, while more easterly winds are expected north of the boundary. Will see a break in shower and thunderstorm activity for Thursday, but active pattern returns for the end of the week into Saturday. Wagner && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Flood Watch...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-WIZ057-WIZ058- WIZ059-WIZ060 until 7 AM Tuesday. LM...Dense Fog Advisory...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565- LMZ567-LMZ868 until 7 AM Tuesday. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee  669 FXUS63 KFSD 131950 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 250 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms return this afternoon and evening. Scattered strong to severe storms expected - greatest risk for southwestern Minnesota into adjacent areas of South Dakota and northwest Iowa. Timing of greatest concern is 4 to 9 PM. - Main hazards are large hail greater than 2 inches in diameter and wind gusts to 70 mph. A tornado or two are also possible. Have a severe weather plan and multiple ways to receive warnings. - Periodic chances (20-60%) for showers and thunderstorms continue this week. Details remain uncertain at this time. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 238 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Scattered thunderstorms are set to develop over the next few hours, bringing the potential for a few severe storms with large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two. As of 2 pm, a surface low is located over northern Nebraska with a warm front extending northeast of it across far southeastern South Dakota into northwest Iowa. Dew points in the 60s have been gradually spreading northward, and these higher dew points are expected to reach the I-90 corridor over the next couple of hours. This boundary will be the focus of initial storm development, with these storms having access to 35-50 kts of effective bulk shear and 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. There are questions though on how much some high clouds have limited the area from reaching full heating potential, but if a storm can get going then steep mid level lapse rates of 7.5-8.5 degrees C/km and mostly straight, elongated hodographs will favor large hail to around 2 inches in diameter or larger. The secondary threat will be damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph. If a storm can get rooted to the aforementioned surface warm front, then a tornado or two will also be possible. Can't rule out a strong tornado either, primarily over southwest Minnesota. As the low pressure system drift across the area, a few additional showers and storms look to develop farther south across northwest Iowa (down to about IA Highway-3, or just north of US Highway-20) within the warm sector around sunset. These storms could also be on the strong to severe side, with an isolated instance of quarter sized hail and 60 mph as the threats. Showers and storms will exit off to our east by the mid evening hours, leaving mostly quiet conditions in its wake. A few showers may develop in central South Dakota prior to daybreak Tuesday, but dry air should win out and prevent most if not all of this from reaching the ground. Patchy fog will also be possible by early Tuesday morning across portions of northwest Iowa and southwest Minnesota as winds turn light and variable overnight and ample moisture remains in place. Temperatures tonight drop mainly in the 40s, though some 50s are possible in our easternmost areas. Low chances for showers continue into the day on Tuesday, but activity is expected to remain spotty at best as rain continues to battle a dry sub cloud layer. Highs will range from the 60s northwest to 70s southeast. Rain chances look to increase Tuesday night into Wednesday as two shortwave troughs impact our area. The best chances of rain and storms look to be over northwest Iowa and adjacent areas of Nebraska, South Dakota, and Minnesota. At this time, severe weather looks unlikely with this system as the better instability looks to be off to our south and east. Rain and storms exit off to our east by Wednesday night, leading to a dry Thursday. Winds look to increase on Thursday especially west of I-29 closer to a deepening surface low, and winds may take on a southwesterly component especially in south central South Dakota. This could lead to another day with higher fire danger as temperatures will be warm and relative humidity values drop to 25% or below mainly along and west of the James River. Still some uncertainty into how breezy the winds will be, so keep up to date with the latest forecast. Not too much time to look into the extended forecast given the near term severe weather threat, but guidance is in fairly good agreement that the western trough will begin to move into our area by the end of the work week/early weekend. This could bring more rain and storms to our area on Friday and then colder weather into Saturday as guidance indicates a stronger push of cold air advection behind this system. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1241 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms are expected to develop this afternoon, especially east of I-29 into southern Minnesota and northern Iowa. Enough confidence to at least include a PROB30 group for thunderstorms at KFSD, but it looks like storms should stay largely east of KSUX and KHON. Storms will be capable of large hail and damaging winds. Showers and storms will quickly push off to our east this evening, leading to quieter conditions overnight. Some patchy fog is possible mainly over portions of northwest Iowa and southwest Minnesota Tuesday morning. A frontal system will move across the area today, changing winds from a more southerly direction to a more northerly direction as we head into the evening hours. Winds turn mainly light and variable overnight and stay fairly light through the end of the period. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Samet AVIATION...Samet  254 FXUS65 KVEF 131954 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 1254 PM PDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Scattered showers will develop this afternoon and evening, with brief heavy rain, small graupel, and thunder possible with heaviest showers. * Calmer conditions resume Tuesday and Wednesday before gusty winds and cooler temperatures return late in the week. && .DISCUSSION...through early next week. Closed 500mb low with a cold core of -25C mid-level temps will move across the region this afternoon and evening, with increasing showers and a few isolated thunderstorms expected. Early afternoon satellite imagery depicts broad cumulus fields across much of the forecast area, but limited vertical growth so far, however, as cooler air aloft moves in in the coming hours, we expect a quick increase in shower coverage. Given the cold temps aloft, some of the stronger showers could produce small graupel and some rumbles of thunder. Quieter conditions will resume Tuesday and Wednesday as a transient ridge of high pressure builds in with temperatures returning to near normal. The break the weather will be brief however as another shortwave drops south out of the PacNW and into the Great Basin Thursday. This feature will stir up the regional winds by Thursday afternoon and drag a sharp cold front through the area Thursday evening into Friday morning. Cooler temperatures will follow for Friday along with gusty north winds, especially along the Colorado River Valley. High pressure will rebuild over the weekend with warming temps and dry weather expected. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Wind gusts are starting to pick up at issuance, and will increase to around 25KT this afternoon through this evening. After sunset, the frequency of gusts will decrease, with winds gradually becoming light and settling out of typical directional patterns. This afternoon into this evening, a swath of showers and isolated thunderstorms will move east across the area, with a 25% chance for showers to impact the terminal during the late afternoon and early evening. A majority of the activity will remain confined to the higher terrain, though erratic gusty winds and a lightning strike or two cannot be ruled out. In the vicinity of showers, SCT-BKN ceilings around 6-8kft can be expected, with ceilings around 10kft otherwise, improving overnight. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Showers with embedded isolated thunderstorms are expected to move east across the region this afternoon and evening, with the greatest concentration of activity across the southern Great Basin and the higher terrain of southern Nevada and Inyo County. Ceilings around 6-8kft can be expected with this activity, along with erratic gusty winds and the occasional lightning strike, with about a 20-30% chance of occurrence at a given terminal. Southwesterly winds with gusts to 25-30KT are expected across the Las Vegas Valley and the Lower Colorado River Valley through this evening, trending more westerly across the western Mojave, and northwesterly through the Owens Valley. Areawide, gusts diminish overnight with winds becoming light by daybreak with bands of mid- level clouds around 10kft streaming over the area. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Outler AVIATION...Phillipson For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter  323 FXUS63 KDLH 131954 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 254 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A decreased severe threat remains for our far southern Wisconsin areas this evening, with a primary risk of two inch golf ball hail and localized, minor flooding possible along portions of the South Shore. - More storms are expected tomorrow afternoon but will mainly stay to our south, though a few could clip our southeast with small hail. - An active pattern continues, with a couple more chances for showers and thunderstorms and even some light snow over the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 101 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A thick deck of low stratus lingers from morning fog over northeast Minnesota and along the South Shore of northwest Wisconsin. This cloud cover, combined with a small line of light showers currently moving northeast in northwest Wisconsin and soon to reach Pine County, will prevent the favorable severe weather environment from reaching most of the area. However, a targeted severe threat remains this evening for our far southern Wisconsin zones, particularly around Price County. The main hazard will be large hail up to two inches in diameter due to a very deep hail growth layer aloft. The tornado and wind threat has dropped significantly as storms will struggle to remain surface based, but a few strong gusts or a brief tornado cannot be completely ruled out if a storm moves up from the south before elevating. Additionally, a localized flash flood risk continues tonight across the South Shore as more rain falls on saturated soils and remaining existing snowpack. Moving into tomorrow, another round of storms is expected in the afternoon, but the bulk of this activity will remain to our south. A few strong storms could clip our southeastern areas and produce small hail. Meanwhile, a broader upper level trough and surface boundary will bring scattered light rain showers across northern Minnesota throughout the day. Temperatures will remain relatively cool, topping out in the 40s and 50s across the region with light easterly winds shifting to the northwest by the late afternoon. The active weather pattern continues into Wednesday as another deep trough in the Central Plains sends a warm front lifting towards the Northland. This system has shifted south, and most showers and storms will once again stay to our south. However, there is a small chance that some weak instability may reach our southern CWA border, and a few thunderstorms producing small hail cannot be ruled out. Temperatures will begin to moderate, reaching the upper 50s and mid 60s for most locations, accompanied by a steady southeast wind. By Thursday, the region gets a brief and partial break, though a few lingering rain showers remain possible, especially in the morning. Temperatures will continue their upward trend, with afternoon highs reaching the 60s up to 70 degrees under partly sunny skies. Friday looks to be highly dynamic as a large, elongated system pulls Gulf moisture northward into the Upper Midwest. Southerly winds will increase, bringing warm air and pushing high temperatures into the upper 60s and lower 70s. This influx of warm, moist air will lead to widespread rain and another potential round of severe thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours as a strong front passes. A quick change arrives for Friday on the back of the system. Strong northwesterly winds will bring in a much colder airmass, sending overnight lows falling back below freezing Friday night. Lingering moisture wrapping around the departing low will likely transition from rain to scattered snow showers or rain/snow mix into Saturday. Since we've been warm lately, the ground will be warm enough that very little snow accumulation is expected, if any. The exception would be isolated areas of higher snowfall rates, though that remains uncertain at this time. High temperatures will struggle to reach 40 degrees. Fortunately, the chill is short lived, with sunny skies and temperatures rebounding into the 50s by Sunday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 MVFR to IFR conditions continue where stratus lingers this afternoon. Some may see some lifting before a warm front moves north and leads to scattered showers and thunderstorms, accompanied by MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities. Thunderstorms are most likely near HYR, with occasional large hail. All other terminals will likely only see rain showers. Fog and low stratus is expected to redevelop again tonight and will slowly lift once again tomorrow morning. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 101 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Northeast winds will persist over Western Lake Superior into Tuesday as low pressure passes to our south. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect due to wind gusts up to 25 knots and waves building to 4 feet, particularly along the North Shore and Outer Apostle Islands. Winds will gradually ease and become variable by Tuesday night before shifting easterly on Wednesday. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 101 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 No critical fire weather conditions are expected in the near term. An active weather pattern will keep the region wet with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the week. Relative humidity values will remain well above 30%, and winds will generally stay under 15 mph through Thursday before increasing on Friday from the south. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 342 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Over the past 72 hrs we have had a few swaths of 0.25-0.50" over our existing snowpack into the Arrowhead and the South Shore. The highest swatch of over 1" ran through Sawyer into southern Ashland and Iron Counties. There is still some potential for storms to develop late this afternoon and evening and move across our Flood Watch counties, but chances have decreased as the warm front that will be the focal point for storm initiation is projected to be farther south. Additional rainfall of around 0.50" will be possible with locally higher amounts should any storms develop. Tuesday's activity also looks to be more light rain focused on northern MN. With this in mind we have opted to shorten the duration of the Flood Watch to Tuesday morning. An impressively warm day for Sunday has help to melt more of the snow pack. The South Shore saw temperatures climb into the 60s and 70s. And even the North Shore got in on some of the warmth action with highs capping out in the 50s. Modeled snow depth across the South Shore saw a significant decrease losing as much as 8" in just 24 hrs. The North Shore's >24" foot print has also been reduced from the Arrowhead to mainly the high terrain of the North Shore. It's hard to know the extent of how much water this has returned to the soil but across the South Shore it is likely in excess of 2". Taking a trip through some of river gauges does show some response to this added liquid from snow melt. Across the MN sites the river heights have increase 0.5-1.0' NW WI where we saw the more impressive melting has seen rises of 2-3' across several rivers. The Tyler Forks River near Mellen WI is still the primary concern with a Flood Warning already in effect. This river is expected to crest on Tuesday morning just below moderate flood stage and move out of minor flooding Thursday. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for WIZ002>004. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 8 AM CDT Tuesday for LSZ140-141. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Tuesday for LSZ142>147-150. && $$ DISCUSSION...KML AVIATION...KML MARINE...KML FIRE WEATHER...KML HYDROLOGY...Britt  067 FXUS63 KLOT 131955 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 255 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Late spring to summer-like temperatures will continue through Friday with highs in the 70s and 80s and lows in the 60s. - Several additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms, including a threat for severe weather and flooding expected, especially late Tuesday afternoon/evening and again on Wednesday. - A brief break in the pattern is expected late Thursday into or through the day on Friday before another storm system arrives in the Friday evening to Saturday timeframe. - In the wake of the Saturday cold front, a brief, potentially sharp, shot of much cooler air could bring frost/freeze concerns into next Sunday and Monday. && .MESOSCALE... Issued at 218 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Moisture advection along the northeastern terminus of an 850 low- level jet favored the early afternoon development of scattered showers and storms across western IL. The expectation is for this cluster of storms to continue sliding east- northeastward across northern IL and into northwestern IN through the afternoon. While the overall severe threat with the storms this afternoon remains in question, the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and ample deep layer shear noted by long straight hodographs suggest conditions will be favorable for supercells capable of producing large hail through early this evening. As of this writing, it appears the best environment supportive of more substantial surface based storms resides south of I-80. This is the area where more persistent insolation through the day has pushed temperatures into the low 80s. Accordingly, in collaboration with the SPC we have issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for this area. More substantial thunderstorms are slated to develop this evening north-northwest of our area across portions of the Upper Midwest in the vicinity of a surface warm front. With time, conglomerate outflow from these storms will support upscale growth into a east-southeastward shifting MCS late this evening and overnight. We will be watching trends with this activity closely through the evening, as it remains plausible that northern parts of our area could get a glancing blow by these storms overnight. Locally strong wind gusts, hail and heavy rainfall would be the main threat with these storms overnight. KJB && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Tuesday and Wednesday... Tuesday and Wednesday, aggregate mid/upper level troughing across the southwestern U.S. will slide eastward over the Four Corners Region of the Desert Southwest. As this occurs, the enhanced corridor of broad upper-level southwesterly flow from the Plains to the Upper Midwest will be shunted farther eastward into the Great Lakes. This will essentially steer a parade of shortwave impulses northeastward across our area through midweek. Altogether, this in addition to the favorable overlap of the plume of steep mid-level lapse rates, stalled frontal zone, a steady feed of low-level moisture advection and strong deep-layer shear will support a threat for additional waves of severe thunderstorms in the general region. Of particular concern for more severe storms is the late Tuesday afternoon and evening time period. Following any early morning remnant storms, we should see primarily storm free weather for much of the day as the area becomes capped under the EML inversion. Accordingly, this should favor several hours of diurnal heating and destabilization of the moist (dew points in the 60s) low-level airmass through the day. Scattered thunderstorm development then looks favorable in the vicinity of the frontal boundary across eastern IA and southern WI sometime during the mid to late afternoon hours of Tuesday. Given the favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment, supercells capable of very large hail (2"+) will be a favorable, at least with the initial activity. A notable tornado threat may also develop for a few hours late in the afternoon through early evening across eastern IA into northwestern IL. This as strengthening low- level flow leads to enlarged low-level hodographs into early evening. The storm mode does look to ultimately build upscale into forward propagating segments through the evening, so a transition to damaging wind producing storms is likely as the storms progress east into northern IN later in the evening. Hydrology will also become an increased concern Tuesday night, particularly if repeated rounds of storms move over the same area. If this occurs, a notable threat of flash flooding will materialize into Tuesday night. Prior rounds of convection into Wednesday morning may then muddle the picture convectively speaking for Wednesday PM. Ultimately, pinpointing favored locations and time windows will remain challenging until there is better clarity on exact shortwaves and eventual placements of boundaries. KJB Thursday through Sunday: There's variance regarding the progression of a cold front across the region, with some of the slower solutions holding onto some potential for storms into Thursday afternoon. Thereafter, into Thursday night and at least the start of Friday, ensemble model guidance advertises a brief break in the stormy pattern as shortwave ridging moves through the Great Lakes ahead of a substantial trough digging into the central US. High temperatures look to rebound into the low to even mid 80s by Friday accompanied by another threat for strong to severe thunderstorms Friday night into Saturday. Thereafter, there is a reasonably strong signal in ensemble guidance for a cooldown to start next week. The key aspect for the weekend into early next week cooldown is a recent trend towards a much cooler air mass due to trough amplification over the region. If this comes to pass, parts of the area may flirt with sub-freezing temperatures Saturday night into early Sunday, and again Sunday night into next Monday morning. With the summer-like warmth and rain this week supercharging plant growth and leaf out, the magnitude of the weekend cold shot will be one to watch for agricultural interests. Castro/Borchardt && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1247 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Key Aviation Messages for the current TAF period: - Multiple waves of showers and storms through the evening. Low confidence in coverage. - Gusty southwest winds are expected through the TAF, with a chance of erratic gusty southeast winds for a brief period after 00Z - Low level wind shear expected overnight as a low level jet increases - Another chance for showers and storms closer to day break tomorrow. Low level clouds have lifted to higher-end MVFR cigs for most of the air space. While Chicago terminals are dry at the moment, scattered showers with embedded thunder has crossed the Mississippi River and is quickly moving northeast. Model guidance has struggled with today's event, but surface and radar observations helped justify converting PROB30s to TEMPOs and help give a better estimate for showers and thunder at terminals this afternoon. Winds will remain out of the southwest with gusts 20 to 25 knots, though stronger gusts associated with thunderstorms is possible. While the current trends may be the main show, models (which have already been mentioned as not handling the event well, thus lower confidence in what they are projecting) continue to highlight a second wave of showers and storms after 00Z. PROB30s were maintained for northern terminals given the lower confidence in coverage, but TEMPOs were added for MDW/GYY given the trend in better coverage to the south. Additionally, there could be a brief window of gusty southeast winds with this second round of showers and storms tonight, before returning to the southwest as the showers pass. After 03Z, a low level jet is expected to increase with winds exceeding 50 knots just 2000 ft AGL. The threat for low level wind shear was maintained in the TAF. Most of the region should remain dry overnight, however, the showers and thunderstorms impacting Minnesota and Wisconsin during the day/evening today is projected to move southeast over the airspace tonight. Many models are suggesting most of the showers and storms will push out over Lake Michigan. While there is lower confidence in this final wave of precipitation, it merited a PROB30 inclusion in the TAF. Drier conditions are expected after daybreak tomorrow. MVFR cigs hang on through the morning before eventually lifting to VFR levels. Winds will remain out of the southwest with gusts 20 to 25 knots. There could we a weak wave in the afternoon that provides isolated shower chances, but confidence was too low for mention in the TAF presently. DK && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago  665 FXUS64 KSJT 131955 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 255 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorm chances will persist Monday into Wednesday, with a threat for severe storms each day. - A cold front is expected on Saturday, bringing low rain chances and considerably cooler temperatures for the upcoming weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 228 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Dryline extended just west of West Central Texas from near Snyder south to Big Spring to east of Ft Stockton. There was some cumulus developing west of Crockett county and in the Big Country. SPC Day One Convective Outlook has been increased the marginal risk of severe thunderstorms, to a slight risk in the Big Country, which extended southward into Runnels, Coleman and Brown Counties. The best potential for severe storm this afternoon and evening is across the Big Country and western sections of the Concho Valley and Crockett county, where the short term convective models develop isolated thunderstorms. Instability is quite high with MUCAPES of 3000 J/KG, with effective bulk shears of 40-45 KTS, so if a storm does develop, it could become severe, with large hail and damaging winds. Storms movement will be mainly northwest, but stronger storms could take a right turn eastward. Tuesday, shower and thunderstorm chances will increase as an upper shortwave approaches from the west. While the best lift will be Tuesday night, thunderstorms possible earlier in the day. There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across most of West Central Texas Tuesday. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Monday) Issued at 235 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 As mentioned in the short term discussion, a shortwave trough will approach the region from the west in the afternoon and evening. Showers and thunderstorms will develop off the dryline and move eastward into the area in the evening and persist into the overnight hours. Most of west central Texas is now in a slight risk for severe weather during this time. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary hazards given moderate instability and steep lapse rates aloft. Convective evolution is less certain during the day on Wednesday as morning storms could limit destabilization in the afternoon. Did lower PoPs in the afternoon especially across our eastern counties. Isolated storms would likely initiate along the dryline by the late afternoon across our western counties. Large hail and damaging winds would once again be in play. Mainly dry conditions are expected on Thursday and Friday, with highs warming into the mid to upper 80s. A cold front is still forecast to move into the area on Saturday bringing cooler temperatures and a chance of showers for the weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 An isolated thunderstorm may affect KABI or KSJT late afternoon into early evening, but left out mention due to low potential. Band of stratus with MVFR ceilings affecting KSOA and KBBD at noon will lift to VFR 19-20Z. Stratus with MVFR ceilings otherwise returns toward midnight for KSOA and KJCT, lowering to IFR by daybreak. Ceilings at KSOA may stay IFR through 18Z Tuesday. MVFR stratus returns across the rest of the terminals by daybreak, rising to VFR early afternoon. Gusty south winds will affect KABI and KSJT this afternoon, and again mid morning Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 68 81 65 82 / 20 40 80 60 San Angelo 65 79 62 82 / 20 40 70 50 Junction 64 80 62 79 / 20 30 50 50 Brownwood 65 80 63 78 / 20 40 60 60 Sweetwater 68 82 64 84 / 20 40 70 40 Ozona 65 75 62 80 / 30 40 60 40 Brady 66 78 64 76 / 20 30 50 50 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....42 AVIATION...04