028 FXUS65 KBOI 132003 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 203 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread valley rain and mountain snow above 4500 feet on Monday. - Snow levels will drop to near valley floors Thursday morning with cold frontal passage for widespread lower elevation snow likely. - Near to Below freezing morning temperatures likely Thursday through Saturday across the entire area. && .SHORT TERM /Through Wednesday Night/... The active pattern remains in place across southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho. Rain and snow showers continue through the remainder of the afternoon, tapering by mid evening. Significant snow has fallen above 6000 feet today with reports of 14 to 18 inches of snowfall. As of 1 PM MDT today, 2.40 inches of rainfall has been recorded for the month of April 2026 at Boise. This currently ranks as the 9th wettest April on record for the Boise area, with 17 days remaining in the month. For tonight and Tuesday, a brief period of weak ridging will move through the region, providing a short lull in the widespread precipitation seen earlier this week. Light winds, clearing skies, and significant surface moisture will promote the development of patchy fog Tuesday morning, especially across the Long Valley and Treasure Valley. The break is short lived as a strong upper level low currently over Alaska begins to dig south along the Pacific coast late Tuesday afternoon and evening. Clouds will increase from the west as moisture begins to advect into the region ahead of the next system. Light rain showers will develop over the mountains of southeast Oregon late Tuesday, spreading into southwest Idaho overnight. The main weather event arrives Wednesday as the cold front approaches. Strong southwesterly flow ahead of the front will result in breezy conditions Wednesday afternoon, with gusts of 25 to 35 mph possible across the higher terrain and open valleys of southeast Oregon. Widespread rain is expected for the valleys through Wednesday evening, with snow levels initially remaining around 5000 to 6000 feet MSL. The cold frontal passage is timed for late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. This front will bring a sharp transition in the weather. Winds will shift to the northwest and remain gusty. More importantly, a much colder air mass will pour into the region, causing snow levels to plummet toward valley floors by sunrise Thursday. While the bulk of the moisture will be moving east, wrap around moisture and unstable northwesterly flow will support a mix of rain and snow for the Treasure and Magic Valleys, with light snow accumulations possible on grassy surfaces and higher valley benches. In the mountains, lower valleys will see a few inches of snow but areas above 5500 feet could see several inches of new snow Thursday morning, which may impact travel over mountain passes. && .LONG TERM /Thursday through Monday/... Following a strong cold front, temperatures on Thursday cool down to 5-10 degrees below normal. Not exceptionally cold climatologically, but following a long warm spell it will feel like a sudden burst of winter for lower elevations. It's enough for most of the Snake Plain to see sub-freezing morning low temperatures. Again, this isn't climatologically exceptional, however, a green up in the past two weeks has seen many plants begin to bloom or sprout. The freezing morning temperatures threaten this new growth, especially for gardens and crops. For those who started their garden early, it may be wise to consider covering up plants or bringing them inside. Personally, I'm going to be using the time to clean up after late winter and early spring bug hatches. Aside from the cold morning temperatures, as snow tapers off Thursday evening high pressure builds and we head into a warming and drying trend. The drying trend allows morning lows to stay near freezing through Saturday, but afternoon high temperatures will climb back up to near normal. Gusty winds up to 35 mph on Thursday weaken each afternoon, to 30 mph Friday, and 20 mph Saturday. Sunday, temps are about 5 degrees above normal. Sunday night and next Monday models show another strong low diving south along the West Coast, and isolating itself from the jet stream. This will mark the onset of another cool and wet period. && .AVIATION /18Z Monday through Tuesday/... Issued 1152 AM MDT MON APR 13 2026 Widespread steady rain causing MVFR/IFR conditions throughout the area will move east, transitioning to scattered showers ending this evening. Strong showers could produce gusty winds and graupel. Snow levels are right around 6kft MSL. Tonight, after precip ends fog/low stratus become possible in the Snake Plain and mtn valleys. Surface winds: W-NW 5-15 kt with gusts to 20-25 kt, becoming variable up to 10 kt overnight. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-NW 10-20kt. KBOI...Steady rain is transitioning to scattered showers this afternoon. Rain dissipates overnight, with a slight chance of fog/low stratus Mon night/Tue AM. Surface winds: NW 5-10kt. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...JDS LONG TERM....JM AVIATION.....JM  616 FXUS65 KABQ 132004 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 204 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 158 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 - Strong and gusty spring winds will continue through this evening, then return Tuesday, Thursday and Friday, with the strongest winds each day across eastern NM. Hazardous crosswinds will create difficult travel for large and high-profile vehicles. - Critical fire weather conditions with also return to New Mexico several days this week. Critical fire weather conditions will persist this afternoon across northeast NM, then return across portions of the area Tuesday, Thursday and Friday. - Temperatures are expected to drop below freezing Friday night across many areas. Take precautions to protect early blooming plants. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 158 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Strong southwest winds have developed across much of the area today. These winds will persist through early evening before slowly diminishing. Light rain and virga showers are also developing across western NM early this afternoon ahead of the upper level low over SoCal. These will continue to expand, and slightly increase in intensity, through the evening hours. Wetting precipitation remains unlikely through sunset. Showers will continue off and on overnight across the northern mountains. Snow levels will fall to near 8500 feet, so a changeover to snow is expected across the high peaks and a few inches of accumulation is possible at the highest elevations. The upper level low will lift northeastward and weaken on Tuesday as it crosses SE UT and moves into CO. As the system crosses SE UT Tuesday morning, another round of light showers and a few thunderstorms will impact northwest and north central NM. These showers will be brief, then strong southwest to west winds will develop once again. Winds will be a bit stronger on Tuesday than they are today areawide. Northeast NM will see the strongest winds as a sfc low deepens to near 995-998mb across SE CO and some of the H7 flow of 35 to 40kt mixes to the surface. Gusts near 50 mph appear likely, thus have issued a Wind Advisory for much of NE NM between noon and 7pm. Temperatures on Tuesday will fall a few degrees from today's readings, thanks to a Pacific cold front tracking from west to east through the aftn. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 158 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A weak trough, loosely attendant to the main upper low, will cross NM on Wednesday with little fanfare. A few breezes will be noted across east central NM, but far lighter than today or Tuesday. The next storm system will dive southward toward northern UT from the PacNW on Thursday before crossing CO on Friday. Southwest flow will increase on Thursday in response to the approaching system. By late afternoon, H7 winds will be near 30kt, but mixing heights will approach H5 where winds will be closer to 40-45kt. Breezy to windy conditions will be felt areawide, though likely shy of any Wind Advisories. That will change on Friday, however. As the system crosses CO, the base of the trough will cross squarely over NM. In addition to mountain wave activity that morning as H7 winds approach 50kt, daytime mixing and a Pacific front will bring strong and gusty winds to most areas. Strongest winds will be felt across northern NM, and provided the timing remains the same, the strongest gusts may very well be with the frontal passage. Blowing dust will be possible, especially as moisture from recent rainfall will have evaporated after several days of dry and windy conditions. Once the winds relax Friday night, excellent radiational cooling conditions are expected. Many areas are expected to drop below freezing, with hard freezes possible and many northern and western locations. Even portions of the ABQ metro will get close to freezing. Quiet conditions are expected for Saturday. There are some indications that Gulf moisture will begin to seep back into NM on Sunday, though not looking like much precipitation will occur, yet. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1130 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Southwesterly winds have already increased across much of the area late this morning and these wind speeds will continue to rise through mid afternoon. Gusts between 30 and 40kt will be common across southern and eastern areas through early evening. Meanwhile across northwest and central areas, light showers and a few thunderstorms will develop this afternoon. These showers will be capable of gusty and erratic wind gusts, some of which may reach 35kt. Overnight, showers will be focused over the northern mtns, but another batch of light showers will move into northwest NM Tuesday morning. MVFR cigs will be possible with this latter round of showers around KGUP as well as mountain obscurations across much of north central NM. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 158 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Critical fire weather conditions are expected on several days this week. For the remainder of today, strong southwesterly winds will persist through early evening areawide, but the lowest RH values will remain across northeast NM. The Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 7pm. Several locations across Colfax and Union counties received near or less than a tenth of an inch over the weekend, and this moisture has likely already evaporated in the fine fuels. On Tuesday, the Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for eastern NM. Some areas of east central NM received between one half inch and 2 inches of rainfall recently (mainly Curry and Roosevelt counties), so ERCs are quite a bit more marginal in this area. Nonetheless, strong southwest winds will redevelop Tuesday afternoon, and will be somewhat stronger than today with gusts up to 50 mph. RH values will fall to near 15 percent across the area as well. Will let the next shift make the final call on which zones to upgrade. Quieter conditions are expected Wednesday, though locally critical fire weather conditions may develop around Clines Corners in the afternoon. Stronger winds return Thursday and Friday. Breezy to windy conditions will be felt nearly areawide on Thursday, but the strongest winds will be across eastern NM. Much drier conditions are also anticipated with RH values dropping below 10 percent for 6 to 10 hours across eastern NM and portions of central NM. By this time, any moisture that fell over the weekend will have little impact, thus critical fire weather conditions appear likely for eastern NM. Even stronger winds are expected on Friday, with gusts topping 50 mph for many areas near and north of I-40. In fact, Friday will likely feature the strongest winds of the week. RH values will again fall below 10 percent across eastern NM, but sub-15% will be common elsewhere. Widespread critical fire conditions will be likely. Quieter conditions on tap for the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 41 59 31 66 / 70 40 0 0 Dulce........................... 31 54 20 61 / 80 70 0 10 Cuba............................ 35 56 27 60 / 60 40 5 5 Gallup.......................... 32 57 23 63 / 50 40 0 0 El Morro........................ 35 55 27 60 / 40 20 0 0 Grants.......................... 34 60 25 65 / 30 20 0 0 Quemado......................... 37 60 29 62 / 20 5 0 0 Magdalena....................... 43 65 35 65 / 10 0 0 5 Datil........................... 40 59 30 61 / 10 5 0 0 Reserve......................... 35 65 26 68 / 40 5 0 0 Glenwood........................ 38 69 30 73 / 50 10 0 0 Chama........................... 31 48 21 53 / 90 70 0 10 Los Alamos...................... 41 57 36 60 / 60 30 5 5 Pecos........................... 37 60 30 61 / 50 10 5 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 36 54 28 57 / 60 30 0 10 Red River....................... 31 44 23 47 / 60 40 5 20 Angel Fire...................... 30 52 20 54 / 50 20 5 10 Taos............................ 34 58 25 61 / 60 30 5 10 Mora............................ 36 59 29 60 / 30 10 5 10 Espanola........................ 41 65 32 67 / 50 30 0 5 Santa Fe........................ 41 60 35 61 / 50 20 5 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 40 63 32 64 / 50 20 5 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 48 68 40 68 / 40 10 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 46 69 42 69 / 40 10 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 45 71 37 71 / 30 10 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 47 69 39 69 / 40 10 0 0 Belen........................... 44 73 34 72 / 30 5 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 46 70 39 70 / 40 10 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 43 72 32 71 / 30 5 0 0 Corrales........................ 47 71 39 70 / 40 10 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 43 71 35 71 / 30 5 0 0 Placitas........................ 47 65 39 65 / 50 10 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 48 69 39 70 / 40 10 0 0 Socorro......................... 48 77 40 74 / 20 0 0 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 44 63 36 62 / 50 10 5 0 Tijeras......................... 44 64 37 64 / 50 10 5 0 Edgewood........................ 42 66 33 64 / 40 10 5 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 38 68 29 66 / 40 5 5 0 Clines Corners.................. 38 64 33 62 / 20 5 5 0 Mountainair..................... 42 67 33 65 / 30 5 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 43 66 35 65 / 20 5 5 0 Carrizozo....................... 50 69 40 67 / 20 0 5 0 Ruidoso......................... 46 63 38 62 / 20 5 5 0 Capulin......................... 38 64 29 61 / 5 0 0 10 Raton........................... 36 66 29 66 / 5 0 0 10 Springer........................ 37 69 30 68 / 5 0 0 5 Las Vegas....................... 40 64 31 64 / 20 5 0 5 Clayton......................... 48 73 40 70 / 0 0 5 5 Roy............................. 44 69 35 67 / 5 0 5 5 Conchas......................... 48 78 38 76 / 5 5 5 0 Santa Rosa...................... 46 74 39 71 / 10 5 5 0 Tucumcari....................... 51 81 42 77 / 5 5 10 0 Clovis.......................... 51 80 46 76 / 0 5 10 0 Portales........................ 51 81 45 77 / 0 10 10 0 Fort Sumner..................... 48 78 41 76 / 5 0 5 0 Roswell......................... 52 83 47 80 / 0 0 5 0 Picacho......................... 49 75 41 72 / 5 0 0 0 Elk............................. 47 73 38 70 / 5 0 5 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ104-123. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for NMZ104-123-125-126. Wind Advisory from noon to 7 PM MDT Tuesday for NMZ227>231. && $$ SHORT TERM...34 LONG TERM....34 AVIATION...34  875 FXPQ50 PGUM 132010 AFDGUM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tiyan GU 610 AM ChST Tue Apr 14 2026 .Marianas Synopsis... Super Typhoon Sinlaku is east of Guam and is moving northwest toward Tinian and Saipan. Tropical Storm force winds of 39 to 73 mph are spreading across the Marianas. Typhoon force winds of 74 mph and greater are expected to move into Tinian and Saipan this afternoon or evening, likely peaking tonight. Numerous to widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms extend across Guam and the CNMI as rain bands with Super Typhoon Sinlaku move across the Marianas. Ipan buoy shows seas are around 23 feet while Tanapag is around 16 feet. Altimetry shows seas are 25 to 35 feet near the center of Sinlaku, but seas may be even higher and closer to 40 feet. && .Discussion... Super Typhoon Sinlaku continues to move toward Tinian and Saipan in the Marianas, with maximum sustained winds of 175 mph. Based on the 500 AM ChST radar fix, Sinlaku was centered near 13.8N 146.9E, about 145 miles east Guam and 120 miles southeast of Tinian and Saipan. Sinlaku is moving northwest at 9 mph. Sinlaku looks to move through the Marianas over the next 24 hours, likely passing near or over Tinian and Saipan tonight. Observations overnight have reported gusts up to 74 mph (64 knots) at Saipan International Airport and 59 mph (52 knots) at Guam International Airport. Strong tropical storm force winds around 60 mph are expected for Guam, with Rota potentially nearing 70 mph just below typhoon conditions. For Tinian and Saipan, typhoon force winds are expected to move this afternoon or evening, peaking between 130 and 155 mph, with gusts around 175 mph tonight. Along with the winds, the Marianas can also expect heavy rainfall, with numerous heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms moving into the islands through the evening. Widespread heavy showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected over the CNMI this afternoon and into tonight, with scattered thunderstorms found near the eye wall. && .Marine... Tropical storm force winds are increasing across the coastal waters as Super Typhoon Sinlaku moves toward Tinian and Saipan. Winds will be the highest over and near Tinian and Saipan as the forecast track for Sinlaku has the center passing over or near Tinian and Saipan tonight into Wednesday, with the latest forecast having winds near the center being near 125 to 135 kt. In addition to winds, Sinlaku is expected to bring heavy to torrential showers with isolated thunderstorms. Scattered thunderstorms are expected near the center of STY Sinlaku. Combined seas are expected to be around 18 to 26 ft for Guam, 20 to 30 feet for Rota, and 30 to 40 feet for Tinian and Saipan through Wednesday as Sinlaku moves through, then slowly decreasing thereafter. Ipan buoy at Guam has shown seas are reaching around 20 to 23 feet already, while Tanapag buoy near Saipan is around 16 feet but this is expected to increase through tonight. These seas are also producing dangerous surf, deadly rip currents, coastal inundation and beach erosion along north, east and south facing reefs and shorelines. Along with the Tropical Storm and Typhoon Warnings, a High Surf Warning with deadly rip currents and a Coastal Flood Warning remain in effect and will continue for at least the next couple of days. Everyone needs to avoid the coastline and stay out of the water until the surf and rip currents fall below dangerous and hazardous levels. Don't become a statistic! && .Hydrology... The Ensemble Tropical Rainfall Potential (ETRaP) estimates from microwave satellite data that 15 to 25 inches is possible near the center of STY Sinlaku. With the past few forecasts supporting passage near or over Tinian and Saipan, these islands will have the greatest potential for that rainfall. Guam could still see a storm total of 6 to 12 inches, with Rota potentially reaching 10 to 20 inches. Flash Flooding is possible so a Flood Watch remains in effect through Wednesday morning. && .Tropical Systems... As of the 500 AM ChST PGUA radar fix, Super Typhoon Sinlaku was centered near 13.8N 146.9E, about 145 miles east Guam and 120 miles southeast of Tinian and Saipan. Sinlaku is moving northwest at 9 mph toward Tinian and Saipan. Sinlaku looks to move through the Marianas over the next 24 hours, likely passing near or over Tinian and Saipan tonight. Observations overnight have reported gusts up to 74 mph (64 knots) at Saipan International Airport and 59 mph (52 knots) at Guam International Airport. Strong tropical storm force winds around 60 mph are expected for Guam, with Rota potentially nearing 70 mph just below typhoon conditions. For Tinian and Saipan, typhoon force winds are expected to move this afternoon or evening, peaking between 130 and 155 mph, with gusts around 175 mph tonight. For more information, please refer to bulletins from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) under WMO header WTPN31 PGTW and from the National Weather Service under WMO header WTPQ31 PGUM and WTPQ81 PGUM. && .Eastern Micronesia... The forecast remains in good shape. The only change was to extend the advisory for high surf along western reefs at Pohnpei. Altimetry completely missed that area overnight and we didn't want to rely on just model data, thus the need for an extension. Otherwise, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue today and tonight at Majuro, as that region is in an area of better convergence. Otherwise, look for just isolated showers and perhaps at thunderstorm at Pohnpei and Kosrae through tonight. && .Western Micronesia... Satellite imagery partly cloudy to mostly clear across western Micronesia in the wake of Super Typhoon Sinlaku. Altimetry shows combined seas between 10 to 12 feet across Yap and Chuuk, and 6 to 8 feet across Palau. Overall, not much change was made to the forecast. Isolated to low- end (30%) scattered showers will prevail across western Micronesia in the wake of Super Typhoon Sinlaku. Little change in shower coverage is expected over the next several days. Combined seas of 10 to 12 feet continue at Chuuk. Seas are expected to fall below hazardous to small craft conditions this afternoon. An altimetry pass from 09z shows 10 to 12 foot seas have reached Yap's coastal waters. A Small Craft Advisory was issued until Thursday afternoon. Surf looks to remain hazardous until this afternoon for Chuuk and Friday afternoon for Yap. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...Coastal Flood Warning until 5 AM ChST Thursday for GUZ001. Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for GUZ001. High Surf Warning until 6 PM ChST Thursday for GUZ001. Tropical Storm Warning for GUZ001. Typhoon Watch for GUZ001. MP...Coastal Flood Warning until 5 AM ChST Thursday for MPZ001>003. Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for MPZ001>003. High Surf Warning until 6 PM ChST Thursday for MPZ001>003. Typhoon Warning for MPZ001>003. Marianas Waters...Tropical Storm Warning for PMZ151. Typhoon Watch for PMZ151. Typhoon Warning for PMZ152>154. && $$ Marianas/Tropical/Hydrology: Schank East Micronesia: Doll West Micronesia: Williams  102 FXUS64 KHGX 132011 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 311 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and humid conditions continue through the end of the week. - Rain chances increase next weekend as a cold front moves into the region. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 219 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Early afternoon radar imagery shows isolated to scattered rain showers developing over portions of the Brazos Valley and the Piney Woods in association with a shortwave impulse embedded within southwesterly flow aloft along with daytime heating and sufficient instability. We will keep rain chances between 20-40 percent over these areas through the remainder of the afternoon and much lower around 10% near the coast. Isolated to scattered convection should diminish by early this evening. The southwesterly flow pattern aloft will persist across southeast Texas through the end of the week, while light to moderate onshore flow prevails at the surface. Warm and humid conditions will continue each day underneath partly to mostly cloudy skies. Rain chances will overall remain very low with little in the way of forcing expected through Friday, though isolated showers or thunderstorms could clip our far northern counties on Wednesday. An upper level trough is expected to move across the central Plains and the Upper Midwest on Saturday. An associated cold front may approach our forecast area by Saturday afternoon and evening along with an increased chance of showers and thunderstorms through Saturday night. A slight chance of rain showers may continue into the day Sunday behind the frontal passage. Northeasterly winds are expected to increase Saturday night into Sunday behind the cold front, especially over the offshore waters. Temperatures will trend slightly cooler Sunday afternoon. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 617 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 MVFR CIGS this morning should scatter/lift with VFR conditions returning by the late morning/afternoon. Breezy south to southeast winds are expected during the daytime, later easing down this evening. Isolated showers will also be possible throughout the day, though rain chances are too low to warrant a mention in the TAFs. MVFR CIGs fill in again overnight into Tuesday. IFR CIGs could briefly develop during this early morning period as well. 03 && .MARINE... Issued at 219 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A light to moderate onshore flow will persist through midweek with speeds generally around 15 knots from the southeast expected through Wednesday. There may be a brief period where small craft will need to exercise caution offshore Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Water levels may reach up to 2.5-3.0 feet above MLLW near high tide through much of this week. Wave run-up is possible while the rip current risk also remains elevated through the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 68 82 67 84 / 0 0 0 10 Houston (IAH) 70 84 70 84 / 0 0 0 10 Galveston (GLS) 73 79 72 79 / 0 0 0 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Lindsey AVIATION...03 MARINE...Lindsey  895 FXUS65 KFGZ 132013 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 113 PM MST Mon Apr 13 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Windy weather continues today. The next round of showers is expected this afternoon into Tuesday, with the highest chances tonight. Accumulating snow is possible above 6000 feet tonight into Tuesday morning which could lead to slick travel conditions. Another round of windy weather is expected Thursday, followed by cooler temperatures Friday as a weather system passes to our north. && .DISCUSSION...A closed low is dropping into southern California this afternoon, and will move northeastward across our region this evening into early Tuesday morning. Ahead of this low, southwest winds have increased to 15-25 mph with some gusts 30-45 mph. A Wind Advisory continues until 8 PM MST from the Mogollon Rim/White Mtns northeastward. As the low moves closer this afternoon, isolated rain showers are expected to develop. Instability is limited, so only isolated thunderstorms are possible. By later this evening and overnight, the closed low moves across our region, bringing an increase in shower activity from west to east. Colder air with the system will drop snow levels as low as 6000-6500 feet by mid to late evening, including portions of I-40/I-17 and Hwy 180/64 up to the Grand Canyon. Precipitation rates may be briefly heavy, with general snowfall accumulation of 1-3" forecast along the western parts of the Mogollon Rim (Flagstaff region), Kaibab Plateau, and higher parts of the Black Mesa/Chuska Mtns. Forecast amounts farther east along the Mogollon Rim into the White Mtns have trended down, with under an inch in our latest package. By sunrise Tuesday, the low will be in southeast Utah and moving out of our area. Some lingering rain and snow showers are expected mainly along the AZ/UT state line, with isolated showers later in the afternoon down to the Mogollon Rim but impacts will be minimal by that time. Daytime highs Tuesday will be around 10 degrees below normal for mid April. Wednesday - a shortwave ridge moves in, bringing temperatures back near normal and lighter winds. Thursday and Friday - another trough is forecast to pass by to our north, bringing windy (gusts 35-45 mph) but continued mild weather Thursday followed by cooler temperatures Friday. It still looks like the trough passes too far north for precipitation in Arizona, with PoP values less than 10% along the northern border Friday. Very dry air behind this shortwave and decreasing winds could lead to some of the coldest temperatures we've seen in well over a month on Saturday morning at high country locations. For example, our current forecast low Sat AM is 20F at Flagstaff and the last time it was that cold was March 8th. If you live above 6000 feet you may want to think about protecting any outside plants and/or disconnecting hoses. The rest of the weekend looks dry with a warming trend. && .AVIATION...Monday 13/18Z through Tuesday 14/18Z...VFR conditions through 21Z, then MVFR conditions in scattered -SHRA/-SHSN developing from west to east through 12Z, along with periods of IFR conditions possible in SHSN over the higher terrain. Lingering MVFR CIGs possible through Tuesday morning. Winds are S-SW 15-25 kts with gusts 30-40 kts. After 03Z, winds southwest at 10-20 kts. Local gusts in excess of 30 kts possible along a KSOW-KSJN line through the night. OUTLOOK...Tuesday 14/18Z through Thursday 16/18Z...VFR conditions. Isolated showers remain possible through 00Z Tuesday. Winds W 5-15 kts gusting to 20-25 kts on Tuesday, then SW 5-15 kts on Wednesday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Tonight through Wednesday...Showers will spread across northern Arizona this afternoon through the evening, with snow levels dropping to 6000-6500 ft overnight. General snow accumulations of a trace amounts to 3 inches are anticipated. Isolated showers linger through Tuesday afternoon, then dry conditions return on Wednesday. Winds are west at 10-20 mph gusting to 30 mph on Tuesday, then southwest through west 5-15 mph on Wednesday. Thursday through Saturday...Dry through the period. Winds are southwest at 10-20 mph gusting 25-35 mph on Thursday, shifting northwest on Friday, then variable 5-15 mph on Saturday. Minimum RH is 10-20% on Thursday and Friday, then 10-15% on Saturday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ009- 012>017-039-040. && $$ PUBLIC...JJ AVIATION...Lewandowski FIRE WEATHER...Lewandowski For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff  320 FXUS63 KGLD 132014 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 214 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Red Flag Warning is in effect for portions of northwest Kansas today, mainly south and east of Goodland where warm/dry conditions and SW winds at 15-25 mph w/gusts to 35 mph may lead to rapid wildfire growth this afternoon. - Fire Weather Watch for Tuesday for counties south of Interstate 70. Conditions will be dependent on the placement of a low pressure system. - Showers and some storms are forecast north of Interstate 70 late Tuesday afternoon through the evening. A rogue strong storm can't be ruled out. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 123 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Troughing for today has set up further south than what was being seen yesterday as a surface low across Nebraska wound up being further south which has inhibited the strength of the winds for today. Sustained winds of 10-20 mph remain forecasted but wind gusts with the weaker wind field may only support 25-30 mph gusts versus the potential for 40 mph that I was seeing yesterday. With the warm temperatures and humidity values in the upper single digits to low teens, despite the marginal winds will leave the Red Flag Warning in place. Overnight, strong 700-500mb vorticity is forecast to move across the area leading to an increase in mid level moisture. A cold front is also forecast to move in from the north as well which should help provide enough lift to lead to some sprinkles given the very dry air remaining at the surface. With the front an increase in dew points is forecast to occur as well across the north where some stratus and perhaps some fog may be possible as well. Tuesday, a low pressure system is forecast to develop which will send the cold front back north as a warm front. There still remains variability on exactly where the low will set up as the GFS,NAM and RAP all favor a northern location but the ECMWF ensembles and ECWMF AI keep the low further south. Similar to what was mentioned yesterday a further south low would limit the fire weather potential versus a further north would lead to greater coverage of fire weather potential. I did go ahead and issue a fire weather watch for locations south of Interstate 70 where if the northern track of the low did develop this is where the fire weather conditions should occur at. Also did issue to avoid confusion with any fire weather partners as surrounding offices do and have had fire weather products out. I do have concerns that the further south low scenario will pan out as there has been a subtle southern shift in guidance over the past 24 hours and that has been the trend with the systems in reality over the past 24 hours. Currently confidence is around 40- 45% for multiple hours of critical fire weather in the forecast area so just enough to warrant the Fire Weather Watch. Confidence has increased some in rainfall potential for northern portions of the area since confidence is increasing in the southern low scenario. Showers and storms are forecast to increase in coverage Tuesday evening as a 500mb jet stream puts northwest portions of the area in the left exit region of the jet and the increased lift within the developing low pressure system. A warm front should be along the Kansas/Nebraska line where guidance is suggest around 500 j/kg of CAPE which should be enough to lead to some thunderstorms developing. There is slim (less than 5%) chance of severe weather mainly in the form of damaging winds but with unstable lapse rates and very high shear if a updraft could sustain itself then large hail may occur as well. Wednesday, is forecast to be a little cooler on the backside of the low as winds are forecast to remain from the northwest; highs for the day are forecast in the 70s. After any lingering rain in the morning moves out drier air is again forecast to move in from the northwest but leading to perhaps marginal at best fire weather conditions across Yuma and Dundy counties, any rain from Tuesday may be enough to minimize fire weather concerns as well for at least one day. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 208 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Upper-level troughing appears to be favored across the Western United States Thursday morning. Lee cyclogenesis is favored to take place across the North-Central High Plains through the afternoon. Additionally, GEFS guidance suggests an 850-mb high pressure will exist across the Southeastern United States, and back into Mexico and Baja California. These two features look to establish southerly to southwesterly surface flow across the forecast region Thursday afternoon, yielding warm and dry conditions. Forecast highs are currently in the mid-70s to mid-80s, with relative humidities (RH) in the upper single-digits to lower-teens. Critical fire weather conditions may be a concern during the afternoon and evening hours, with wind gusts forecast in the 25-40 mph range across most of the CWA. NBM guidance suggests over a 40% chance for wind gusts to meet criteria for critical fire weather conditions across most locations in the forecast region, with over a 90% chance across portions of Eastern Colorado. Further, LREF guidance suggests over a 90% chance for RH values to meet criteria for the hazard across portions of Eastern Colorado and West-Central Kansas during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Higher end scenarios would be associated with a stronger central low pressure across portions of Eastern Wyoming and Montana, and the Western Dakotas. Confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed Thursday afternoon is currently highest for portions of Eastern Colorado, around 30%. The upper-level trough from the west looks to move across the forecast region Friday, pushing a surface low pressure across the Central High Plains eastward. A strong cold front is favored to begin traversing the forecast region sometime between the afternoon and evening hours. Critical fire weather conditions are possible ahead of the cold front, though a slower eastward progression of the surface low would be required. About 60% of GEFS and EC members are in line with a slower cold front, which could be associated with some critical fire weather conditions across portions of West- Central Kansas and East Central Colorado. However, the 40% of members that show a faster cold front would mitigate the risk across this zone. A freeze, along with some snowfall may also be experienced with this cold front. Current forecast guidance suggests low temperatures in the lower-20s to lower-30s across the forecast region Friday night, with a 40-55% chance of light snow across portions of Eastern Colorado, far Southwest Nebraska, and far Northwest Kansas. NBM guidance suggests a 30-45% chance for the snowfall to be measurable (>0.1 inches) across this zone, with over a 75% chance for sub-freezing temperatures across most of the forecast area Friday night (nearly a 100% chance across portions of West Kansas, far Southwest Nebraska, and Eastern Colorado). Cooler conditions may continue into Saturday, with forecast high temperatures in the mid-50s to mid-60s during the afternoon. Critical fire weather conditions may be experienced Saturday afternoon as well, though is highly in question considering the lower temperatures. LREF guidance suggests about a 40-60% chance for RH values to meet critical fire weather criteria Saturday afternoon across most of Northwest Kansas and Eastern Colorado. By Sunday morning, upper-level troughing looks to be fully off to our east, with upper-level ridging approaching from the Western United States. This pattern favors a return of warm and dry conditions through the end of the forecast period Monday afternoon. Forecast high temperatures are in the low to mid-70s and upper-70s to lower-80s Sunday and Monday respectively. Relative humidities may drop into the low to mid-teens both Sunday and Monday, but is currently more confined to Eastern Colorado, far Southwest Nebraska, and far Northwest Kansas on Monday, as GEFS guidance indicates that the 850-mb high across Mexico and Baja California may erode and allow a better moisture return from the Gulf of America. Forecast wind gusts in the 25-40 mph range both days may indicate further risks for critical fire weather conditions. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1139 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 VFR conditions remain forecast for this TAF period gusts around 20 knots are forecast through the afternoon before becoming light and variable after sunset before gradually becoming northerly early Tuesday morning. There is potential for some LLWS again for each terminal but confidence is currently too low to include in this TAF. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 123 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Tuesday continues to be a very tricky day when it comes to fire weather forecasting. Any fire weather potential will be based on the placement of a low pressure system. Majority of guidance continues to show further north positioning low which would favor multiple hours of fire weather conditions across Cheyenne (CO), Wallace, Greeley and Wichita counties. I do have concerns however of a southern low placement which would mitigate winds and critical fire weather conditions would not occur. Confidence is just barely at 40- 45% for multiple hours of critical fire weather across the watch area. For the potential for confusion for fire partners, if I was not surrounded by Red Flag Warnings I would have held off on the watch as I have been noticing southern trends which would be on par with what the ECMWF ensembles and ECMWF-AI has been hinting at for the past few days and systems the past few days as well have shifted features south which is what is hurting the wind across the Red Flag area today. If the northern positioning of the low were to occur then multiple hours of critical fire weather conditions would occur across the Fire Weather Watch area with wind gusts of 30-40 mph. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for KSZ027>029-041-042. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for KSZ004-015-016-028-029-041-042. CO...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for COZ254. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Trigg LONG TERM...Davis AVIATION...Trigg FIRE WEATHER...Trigg  848 FXUS63 KICT 132014 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 314 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - An isolated severe thunderstorm possible late this afternoon and evening. - Better chances for thunderstorms and associated severe weather Tuesday afternoon-evening, and again late Wednesday. - Additional thunderstorm chances and associated severe weather possible Friday afternoon-evening. - Well above average temperatures through Friday, cool down for next weekend. - Extreme grassland fire danger west of I-135 through Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 312 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 PRECIPITATION: LATE THIS AFTERNOON--EVENING...Today's severe weather threat is conditional, as storm development will likely struggle given only modest dryline convergence and little to no upper forcing for large scale ascent. However, low-level moisture is a bit richer compared to yesterday at this time, which should support weaker convective inhibition. Additionally, there is some CAM support for isolated thunderstorm development. If a storm or two is able to develop, a favorable combination of strong buoyancy and 40-50 kts of effective deep layer shear oriented perpendicular to the dryline would support supercells capable of all severe weather hazards. Area and time would be 5-10 PM generally along/east of the KS Turnpike. TUESDAY AFTERNOON--EVENING...Thunderstorm chances and associated severe weather potential aren't quite as clear cut for late Tuesday, with the overall uncertainty increasing. With the upper wave slowing down some, dryline convergence looks only modest by late Tuesday afternoon, which may prove challenging for widespread convective initiation. However, as the evening progresses large scale forcing increasing from the west in concert with the low-level jet ramping up should support an eventual uptick in thunderstorm coverage. Additionally, any storms that form may tend to evolve toward mixed/messy mode, due to a decent component of the deep layer shear oriented parallel to the NE-SW dryline, which would tend to cut into higher-end severe potential. Despite these uncertainties, we will continue messaging the potential for severe storms given the strong combination of shear/buoyancy ahead of the dryline. Area and time would be generally along/southeast of a line extending from Harper to Wichita to Hillsboro between about 4pm and midnight. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON--EVENING...With model consensus hanging back the parent upper trough, the pre-dryline warm/moist/unstable airmass may should remain intact across the region for additional thunderstorm chances Wednesday afternoon-evening, mainly east of the Kansas Turnpike. However, the quality of the warm sector will be contingent on how widespread Tuesday evening/night thunderstorm activity is. If this scenario pans out, buoyancy and shear combination would favor a severe threat, although strong forcing and shear vectors mostly parallel to the dryline would likely support a mixed/messy/linear storm mode and limit a higher-end severe threat. FRIDAY AFTERNOON--EVENING...Deterministic and ensemble consensus continues to support a reloading warm/moist/unstable sector by late week, as another western CONUS upper trough deepens. A sharpening dryline/cold front combination along with strong instability and shear look to be present. This could support another round of thunderstorms (possibly severe) as we head into late Friday. Still lots of uncertainty this far out regarding timing, placement, and amplitude of synoptic features, stay tuned. TEMPERATURES/WIND: Given rather persistent western CONUS troughing and associated lee troughing over the High Plains, breezy/gusty south winds and above average temperatures look to likely persist through this entire work week. The warmest days look to be today, Tuesday, and Thursday, when low-level thickness supports high temperatures in the 80s for most across the forecast area. As we head into next weekend, model consensus supports a cool down in wake of a strong cold front, with potential below average temperatures Saturday and Sunday, and even possible near freezing temperatures early Sunday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail at central and south central KS sites through the end of the period, while MVFR ceilings may impact CNU Tuesday morning. Gusty south/southwest winds are expected to continue through the afternoon hours with sustained speeds around 15 kts and gusts up to 30 kts, especially in central KS. Gusts are anticipated to subside by sunset, though sustained speeds ranging from 10-15 kts will continue overnight with LLWS impacting ICT and CNU through the early morning hours. Finally, increasing low-level moisture along and east of the Kansas Turnpike is expected to result in MVFR ceilings at CNU beginning late tonight and lasting into Tuesday morning. There remains a slight chance (15%) for showers or storms impacting CNU later this afternoon and evening. However, given uncertainty in timing and exact location, decided to leave a mention out for this cycle. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 312 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 TODAY--TUESDAY...Lower relative humidity and gusty southwest winds just west of a dryline will support VERY HIGH to EXTREME grassland fire danger west of Interstate 135 both today and Tuesday. Red flag warning remains in effect through 9pm this evening west of I-135, and the fire weather watch will be upgraded to a red flag warning Tuesday. Otherwise, spring green-up amidst rather high daytime humidity values should keep grassfire danger in check for most areas generally east of I-135 the next 7 days. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033- 047-048-050-067-082-091. Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ032-033- 047-048-050-067-082-091. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADK AVIATION...JWK FIRE WEATHER...ADK  844 FXUS65 KGGW 132014 AFDGGW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 214 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms with an isolated strong gusts possible through midnight south of HWY 2. - Below normal temperatures with mixed precipitation and gusty NW winds in the afternoon Thursday and Friday. && .DISCUSSION... WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Upper low off the northern California coast will lift through the Great Basin through the early half of the week. Isolated thunderstorms could produce some brief gusty winds. The next upper trough moves from the PCNW into the northern Rockies on Wednesday and into the Plains through Friday. This will lead to another round of showers, and with colder air in the trough, mixed precipitation is possible across much of the region Wednesday night into Friday morning, particularly for elevated areas. Chances for a quarter inch of rain over this time period are about 20 - 60% across northeast Montana. Chances for 1" of snow are between 20 - 30% with highest chances along the Canadian border and over the Little Rockies. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Blended HRRR for day 1 winds, and 33% NBM90 for day 1-2 wind Gusts. Pushed PoPs out of northern zones earlier and increased PoT for Prairie, Dawson, Wibaux counties. HIGH confidence in a tenth of an inch CWA wide Wed night to Friday. LOW confidence in snow across northern CWA day to Thursday night to Friday morning. && .AVIATION... LAST UPDATE: 2000Z FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR - IFR DISCUSSION: Showers are expected to exit the region after 6Z tonight. Some isolated lightning is possible at KGDV and KSDY but remains too limited to place in the TAF directly. IFR ceiling will lift intermittently through the afternoon before fully lifting back to MVFR and patchy VFR by 0Z. But, MVFR ceilings will linger in the east until mid- day Tuesday. WIND: E winds 5 to 10 kts then becoming light and variable for all after midnight. A return to gusty west winds for the day on Tuesday. && .GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow  794 FXUS63 KDMX 132018 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 318 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few severe storms in northern Iowa late this afternoon and evening with large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a tornado possible. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible in far northern Iowa. - Next round of severe storms and locally heavy rainfall on Tuesday afternoon into night, especially central into southern Iowa. - Additional rounds of severe storms and locally heavy rainfall on Wednesday (eastern Iowa) and again on Friday (much of Iowa). - Warm and breezy today through Friday with highs in the 70s and 80s, then temperatures tumble into the 40s and 50s this weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Today is the start of a busy, active stretch of weather with multiple rounds of severe storms and heavy rainfall potential through weeks end. The first round is setting up for later this afternoon into this evening over northern Iowa. Early afternoon GOES-East Day Cloud Phase Distinction has scattered low level cumulus clouds from Siouxland into northern Iowa with a fair amount of clearing south of these clouds in western Iowa. A warm front is where the clearing/scattered cumulus clouds are located from just north of Sioux City to north of Algona to north of Mason City. Forecast soundings initially show a warm capping layer aloft, which will prevent storm development. However, as the triple point/low pressure moves into northwest Iowa late this afternoon, these same soundings show weakening of the cap. This will allow any inhibition to be overcome and for surface based storms to develop in the vicinity/east of the triple point. Proximity soundings show 3000 J/kg or more of entrainment CAPE, more than ample deep layer shear, and steep lapse rates for severe storms. The hodograph is more linear given lack of backed surface flow so large hail and damaging winds are obvious concerns. Uncontaminated 0-1 km storm relative helicity is marginal at around 100 m2/s2, but with the triple point and warm front over our area, think a few tornadoes will be possible as the flow backs more locally ahead of these features that may enhance the low level flow and helicity. Looking at convective allowing model (CAM) guidance, this has been showing up in past runs of the HRRR along with the ARW cores developing over northwest into north central Iowa close to 0z/7pm this evening. Warn on Forecast (WoFS) is running over the area and the 18z paintballs shows initiation between 22-23z/5-6pm and potential for rotating storms in the vicinity of Spencer that then spreads east-northeastward. As one or more storms develop and move to the east-northeast, these should congeal into a line with the main hazards transitioning more to a large hail and damaging wind threat as the storms exit into northeastern Iowa by midnight. While quite limited, National Water Model forced HRRR has shown some rapid onset flooding potential in far northern Iowa near the Minnesota border, but as the hydro discussion outlines below this will be limited to urban areas. For areas outside of northern Iowa/south of roughly Highway 3, the forecast is expected to be dry. The exception, which is shown in the ARW and NAMNest, is the possibility of convection with a hail and wind threat that turns east- southeastward into the instability gradient. While not a likely scenario, it does exist. Severe risks also exist on Tuesday and Wednesday with each subsequent round better determined after the first has occurred. For Tuesday, the boundary will slip into our forecast area with a weak surface low to the west of the state that moves in later in the day or at night. The front should be a focus for possible storm development mid to late afternoon, but there is a variety of times and locations for convective initiation as the location of moisture gradients, the low position, and wind fields all vary greatly amongst the CAMs. This plays a crucial role in what, if any, storms develop in the afternoon, their location and their hazards. While whatever threat develops and moves into eastern Iowa Tuesday evening, a strong low level jet will begin to move up into our area by late evening. This will bring renewed convection into southern and central Iowa by late evening through much of the overnight, which wanes into the daylight hours of Wednesday. The main hazards would be hail and wind. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 As the western CONUS shortwave trough finally lifts into our region, expect a final round of storms across eastern portions of Iowa on Wednesday. Instability and shear parameter space looks favorable for strong to severe storms with large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes all possible. Further, the surface low and warm front could be over central Iowa and may aid in enhancing low level hodographs, but this is a detail to monitor versus be concerned about at this time horizon. As Wednesday's strong synoptic forcing passes by, Thursday is looking like a more tranquil, dry day into Thursday night. However, the next amplified shortwave trough will be trucking towards the region taking on a neutral tilt. With a surface low and cold front moving through the region/state sometime on Friday with highs reaching the 70s and 80s, another round of strong to severe storms will be possible with this highlighted in the day 5 SPC outlook. As the storms move east of the state Friday night, colder air will wrap in behind the departing low and cannot rule out some snowflakes in northern portions of the state early Saturday. Temperatures will tumble into the 40s and 50s with breezy winds from the northwest on Saturday as well. Further, those with early season vegetation will want to monitor the forecast with sub-freezing temperatures forecast Saturday night/Sunday morning. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1241 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A mix of VFR and MVFR CIGs cover Iowa currently and CIGs will continue to improve through the afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected near the IA/MN border this evening, though uncertainty remains in the southward extent so PROB30s are introduced for MCW/ALO. Strong flow off the ground through the overnight will induce LLWS for mainly the KOTM/KALO sites, but marginal LLWS will exist at KDSM as well. This is omitted from the KDSM TAF in this update, but trends in shear magnitude will be monitored. Lastly, increased humidity will fill in behind a front tomorrow morning, bringing in lower ceilings and fog, mainly for KMCW/KALO/KFOD. Fog is expected to be patchy, but IFR thresholds could be crossed for brief periods. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 239 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Multiple rounds of seasonally moderate to heavy rain this week will lead to renewed flooding concerns. Presently the main concern will be possible renewed or additional river flooding. Output from the GFS- and NBM-forced medium-range National Water Model (NWM) and the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System (HEFS) suggest the most likely scenario will be moderate to significant within-bank rises on many rivers and streams, especially across the southeast half of the CWA over the next week. A few locations may see minor river flooding as well. These rises will be due to the additive effect of multiple rounds of rainfall. If rainfall is higher than presently forecast then the risk of several locations seeing minor flooding and a few locations seeing moderate flooding will increase. Flash flooding is less of a concern than river flooding, however the risk is nonzero. The most likely scenario will be ponding of water or low-end flash flooding especially in urban areas or areas that receive repeated heavy rainfall over a relatively short time period. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Ansorge LONG TERM...Ansorge AVIATION...Ansorge/De Bruin HYDROLOGY...Zogg  778 FXUS63 KEAX 132019 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 319 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Active weather pattern continues with multiple chances for strong to severe thunderstorms, specifically Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday. * Warm temperatures (upper 70s to low/mid 80s) are expected to persist through the work week, with cooler and drier conditions expected this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 317 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 An active weather week is in store for the Plains and Midwest with Kansas and Missouri being no exception. Deep-layer southwest flow and theta-e advection has allowed temperatures to climb into the upper 70s and low 80s as of early Monday afternoon. A tight surface pressure gradient has also led to breezy conditions with sustained wind speeds ranging from roughly 15-20 MPH with gusts up to 35-40 MPH. There are two scenarios regarding tonight's activity (or lack thereof). The most likely (>90%) possibility is that no showers or storms are able to develop outside of a rogue elevated, non-severe shower/storm. Recent ACARS soundings from KMCI have continued to show a persistent capping inversion around 800mb, which would largely inhibit the development of strong/severe storms without a lifting mechanism in the vicinity. The second, much less likely possibility (<10%) is that an isolated storm could develop after encountering some forcing, or a storm is able to form further west where inhibition is more limited. With the amount of instability we have available, a storm that is able to overcome the barriers in place could easily become strong/severe. How long a storm would be able to fuel itself in such a heavily capped environment is another question which further reduces confidence in this occurring. Again, this remains a highly unlikely scenario but possible nonetheless. Warm temperatures will stick around on Tuesday with potential for showers and storms beginning late in the afternoon. A low pressure system currently over the southern California coast is progged to lift northeastward later today. As it does so, a lead shortwave will eject out ahead toward the Rockies. Lee cyclogenesis is expected to ensue with the resultant low moving into north central Kansas by early Tuesday morning. A dryline extending south from the cyclone and into Oklahoma and Texas will be important for storm potential locally. CAMs/Hi-Res guidance indicate convective initiation beginning along this boundary in Oklahoma and Kansas. Storms that develop will initially be discrete/semi-discrete before growing upscale into messy clusters and/or quasi-linear segments. Following mean southwest flow, storms would track northeastward; as such, storms that initiate off of the dryline further south and west would be expected to enter our CWA sometime late Tuesday afternoon or early evening. Locally, we look to possess an environment conducive to strong/severe convection: good instability (CAMs narrowing in on a window of >2000 J/kg of CAPE early tomorrow evening) as well as decent deep-layer shear and SRH. However, what we lack is a clear lifting mechanism nearby, and this will limit our chances for discrete convection tomorrow. If the dryline moves further east than currently forecast, or if a discrete storm from northern OK/southeast KS is able to sustain itself long enough without growing upscale, we would be posed with a greater tornado and hail threat. With no clear route for ascent and indications of at least some degree of a cap, though, we expect wind to be the primary/most widespread hazard with non-discrete convection. CAMs have also picked up on convective initiation in northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri late Wednesday evening as the LLJ ramps up; these storms would present a wind threat as well. There is still plenty of uncertainty regarding the evolution of the forecast tomorrow, much of it dependent on the placement of the dry line as well as the surface low. Severe weather potential exists on Wednesday, but the threat looks to be rather conditional, relying upon how the atmosphere is able to recover from the prior day's showers and storms. Model guidance keeps the CWA clouded in over the course of the day with some clearing in eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Overall, there is less instability to work with as well as more capping (at least per model depictions). Regardless, Thursday looks to be calmer, courtesy of mid/upper-level ridging. Strong southwesterly flow will continue to prevail, keeping us warm. Finally, severe weather chances return again on Friday. Deep southwesterly flow aloft looks to run over a moist, unstable airmass provided by daytime theta-e advection as another surface cyclone with an attendant cold front approaches from the leeside of the Rockies. As the cold front nears, storms could develop along or near it. Guidance suggests moderate instability and shear could be available for storms to tap into, though details should become clearer as we continue through the week. Following the passage of the cold front, high temperatures on Saturday could be 20-25F lower. While we will have to bid adieu to 80 degree temperatures for now, the weekend looks to be dry once remnants of showers and storms move out early Saturday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1242 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Broken mid level clouds are lingering at the KC metro terminals, but these should be scattering out shortly, with VFR conditions likely to continue through the period. Elevated south southwesterly winds should continue through the period, with gusts up to 30 knots through this afternoon and gusts up to 23 to 27 knots through the overnight and into Tuesday morning. A low level jet is expected to develop around 4z tonight, continuing through around 11z Tuesday morning, with 2000 foot winds up to 50 knots, which may present low level wind shear issues for smaller aircraft. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Macko AVIATION...Williams  403 FXUS64 KMAF 132023 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 323 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 252 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 - Low to medium shower and thunderstorm chances (20-40%) Tuesday across the far eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. Damaging winds and large hail remain the primary hazards for the strongest storms. - Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions are expected across southeast New Mexico, the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains, and portions of far west Texas through Friday. - Very windy conditions expected in the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains through Tuesday evening. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Tuesday night) Issued at 252 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A broad dryline has developed this afternoon across the eastern Permian Basin. Convergence and instability along this feature is causing a few storms to develop with the help of daytime heating. Shear is marginal but we could see a storm or two become severe with large hail and strong winds the main threats. The dryline retreats back west overnight before surging back east tomorrow in a near carbon copy of what is happening today. Additional lift from an upper trough and jet stream will increase the storm coverage and PoPs increase to 40 to 50 percent in the far eastern counties. Highs will be similar to today reaching the 80s for most locations which is pretty typical for April. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 252 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Westerly flow then dominates for the middle and end of the week, keeping the dryline just far enough east that rain chances should generally remain in the Big Country and Hill Country of central and west-central Texas. Cannot rule out a rogue shower from Big Lake to Snyder but rainfall amounts will be very little. Highs should hold in the 80s to lower 90s throughout this week since there are no upper features moving across the area to provide any change. Friday an upper level trough moves out of the intermountain west and into the Great Plains. Unfortunately the best lift will be north of the area and this system will provide more wind than anything else. It is possible that pressure falls ahead of the trough could hold the dryline far enough west that some of the eastern counties in our CWA could see some rain chances but most of the area will be dry, windy, and quite possibly dusty. The trough moves east of the area and a cold front moves through Saturday bringing quite pleasant temperatures for the weekend with slightly below normal highs in the 70s. Hennig && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 VFR conditions prevail. Gusty southwesterly winds continue at CNM and HOB until around sunset before diminishing. Elsewhere, southwesterly winds generally between 10-15 kts are expected, with occasional light gusts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 252 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Have left the Tuesday Fire Weather Watch in effect for now and will let one more shift look at conditions before making a final decision. At this time, it appears minimum afternoon humidities will be a little to high to warrant a Red Flag Warning but again will wait 12 hours to see if models drop them any. A dryline will push east into the Permian Basin daily bringing elevated fire weather conditions to portions of southeastern New Mexico and the Permian Basin, but the day to watch is Friday. An upper low moving into the Great Plains will bring windy and dry conditions and Friday afternoon should see critical fire weather conditions across a good portion of the area. The limiting factor could be fuel moisture in the eastern basin and lower Trans Pecos. Fire fighters should monitor Friday as the biggest day of concern. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 65 85 62 86 / 20 30 50 20 Carlsbad 59 85 54 81 / 0 10 10 0 Dryden 66 83 63 85 / 30 40 50 20 Fort Stockton 62 87 62 86 / 20 20 30 10 Guadalupe Pass 56 74 52 71 / 0 10 10 0 Hobbs 57 84 54 81 / 10 10 20 0 Marfa 50 80 49 78 / 10 10 20 0 Midland Intl Airport 64 86 62 84 / 20 20 40 10 Odessa 64 86 62 84 / 20 20 40 10 Wink 60 87 60 84 / 10 10 20 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. NM...High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for Chaves Plains-Lea. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...13  956 FXUS65 KTFX 132032 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 232 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated mountain snow and lower elevation rain showers this afternoon and evening. - Gusty winds along the Rocky Mountain Front Tuesday and Wednesday. - A spring storm late Wednesday through Thursday brings impactful mountain snow, with lower elevation snow Thursday. - Drier and milder conditions move in for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... - Meteorological Overview: A small closed low tracking across Idaho through Southwest MT, will keep isolated mountain snow and lower elevation rain showers through the rest of the day today. Weak instability will allow for isolated thunderstorms to develop, but any storms that do develop will remain weak. There will be a break in precipitation Tuesday before the next incoming trough moves through. Increasing westerly flow aloft will allow for some cross barrier flow to move into the Rocky Mountain Front. Gusty winds develops as a result along the Rocky Mountain Front Tuesday through Wednesday morning. A deepening trough from the British Columbia coast begins to move into the Pacific NW Wednesday. Mountain snow with lower elevation rain moves into the region along with breezy winds. A Pacific cold front sweeps across the region beginning late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Strong cold air advection along the front will crash snow levels down to the lower elevations, allowing for some accumulating snow Thursday. Temperatures will also be well below normal Thursday. Snow lingers through the day Thursday before this system exits. Northwest flow Friday keeps isolated rain/snow showers. An upper-level ridge builds in for the weekend, which will bring drier and milder weather besides for a few terrain driven showers. - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: Winds Tuesday and Wednesday: Peak mid level flow looks to move through Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Though this peak 700mb winds look to pass through quickly. Therefore, it will be difficult for high wind warning criteria winds to materialize, but it will still be windy along the immediate Rocky Mountain Front Foothills (55-65 mph). Snow Mid Week: Models show this trough splitting into two waves. This pattern is favoring the bulk of the moisture to Southwest MT. There's a 50-90% chance for 0.5" of moisture for Madison and Gallatin Counties Wednesday through Friday morning, and up to a 60% chance for 1" in the mountains. There is strong cooling aloft with this cold front passage late Wednesday and Thursday will quickly drop snow levels to lower elevations. Frontogenesis and weak CAPE along the front poses a risk for convective snow banding/squalls in Southwest MT. The combination of good moisture and strong forcing gives a 40-60% chance for 9" of snow for Raynolds and Targhee Pass, and along Highway 191 between Big Sky and West Yellowstone. One area to watch will be for the Gallatin and Madison River valleys. Forecast soundings show a rapid change from rain to snow along the front, and heavy snow rates combined with this front moving through at night time can quickly accumulate snow in those valleys. So far there's a 20-50% chance for 6" of snow for the Bozeman/Gallatin Gateway area and Highway 287 in Madison County. Wet moderate to heavy snow can pose a risk to the infrastructure as well. We will continue to monitor impacts in that region. Precipitation amounts across North-Central MT is lower, so probabilities for snow is less. There's a up to a 30-60% chance for 1" of snow at lower elevations. However, depending on how the northern wave of the split trough tracks, the Hi-line could see higher moisture amounts (low confidence). Snowfall amounts for the Continental Divide and Central MT mountains look to be more minor at passes. There's a 60-80% chance for 4" of snow at Marias and Kings Hill Pass and a 30-50% chance for 6". -Wilson && .AVIATION... 13/18Z TAF Period Initial concern this TAF period will be for patchy lingering low clouds or fog. Concern quickly transitions to showers and a few isolated thunderstorms through early evening. Heading into Tuesday morning, a few instances of fog cannot be ruled out in wind protected areas, otherwise breezy west to southwest winds develop late morning or early afternoon. -AM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 38 58 42 59 / 30 0 0 30 CTB 36 54 34 54 / 20 0 0 20 HLN 35 60 37 58 / 20 0 10 60 BZN 31 60 36 59 / 30 0 0 60 WYS 25 47 28 45 / 50 20 10 80 DLN 29 57 35 56 / 20 0 0 40 HVR 37 63 38 61 / 30 0 0 10 LWT 34 60 36 58 / 30 0 0 40 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls  667 FXUS66 KMFR 132034 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 134 PM PDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front will bring precipitation and snow to the higher Cascades Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Minor travel impacts are anticipated above 4000 feet. Colder air will settle into the valleys Wednesday night and Thursday night. .DISCUSSION... A band of showers has started to fill in the radar mainly west of the Cascades this early afternoon. These showers will move farther east into the afternoon as they're likely enhanced by a short wave diving towards the southeast. High pressure will then build Monday night into Tuesday as the relative calm before the storm. It looks like there will be lots of clouds still covering the valleys overnight, except east of the Cascades, which will see pockets of clearing later tonight. Therefore, Klamath Falls could see some fog or perhaps freezing fog in the morning hours. Tuesday will be mostly quiet until the evening hours as this next system descends on the Pacific Northwest. A well defined cold front will progress through the Cascades and Oregon during Tuesday night and eventually pass completely through by Wednesday evening. The main impacts here will be snow in the Cascades and we have went with a winter weather advisory above 4000 feet to communicate this threat. The probability for >12 inches over our 'populated' areas in the high Cascades is roughly 50%. In addition, some warmer ground and melting when the snow hits the ground could mean this probabilities are a little high. Also, the extreme forecast index(EFI) continues to point towards values of 0.8 to 0.9, which denotes a strong snow event for mid April in the high Cascades. Once the front moves through, the cold air will settle into the valleys with snow levels falling down to 1800 feet on Wednesday night. Precipitation will trend lower once this colder relatively dry air settles into the valleys, although the NBM has a 40% chance of precipitation Wednesday night. Don't be surprised to see some trace amounts of snow along the coastal range and some of the valley edges Wednesday night. The near freezing temperatures will also threaten agricultural operations as lows hover right around freezing. The probability of sub-freezing temperatures in Medford is about 40% Wednesday night. We'll see highs in the mid 50's on Thursday with mid 40's east of the Cascades. This cold air is unusually, although not the coldest we can see this time of year. Basically 10 degrees below normal for the middle of April. Again, the valleys will have to deal with freezing temperatures on Thursday night. There will be less sky cover, especially farther south near the California and Oregon border. Mount Shasta City is currently forecast to tie the record minimum temperature of 25 set back in 2018 on Thursday night. Most other sites will be just a tad bit too warm to break a record. Friday and Saturday will likely be quiet before the next system strengthens in the north eastern Pacific off the coast of Washington. We'll likely see a shot of warm moist air before some cooler air settles in as the low moves closer to shore. Still more details to sort out, but we could see some more snow added to the mountains with this next event as well. -Smith && .AVIATION (18Z TAFs)... Ceilings are expected to maintain MVFR (or close to it) for the majority of this cycle. Lingering showers today may intermittently impact the terminals with very light rainfall. A frontal passage is expected tomorrow with more widespread rainfall, and this will likely be reflected in subsequent TAF cycles. Otherwise, expecting generally light wind speeds this cycle, but KLMT may see occasional breezy conditions this afternoon. -Guerrero && .MARINE...Updated 100 PM PDT Monday, April 13, 2026...Seas will stay below advisory level strength through Tuesday morning. A front will pass through the region Tuesday evening. This will result in widespread precipitation, strong winds, and steep seas starting Tuesday evening. Localized areas of very steep and hazardous seas may be possible north of Coos Bay as the front initially starts to transition over the waters. Steep seas will continue behind the front through Thursday afternoon. A thermal trough may bring gusty northerly winds over the outer waters and south of Cape Blanco on Friday. Another active system may bring additional rainfall and steep seas this weekend. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM Tuesday to 5 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ027. CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None. && $$  899 FXUS65 KPSR 132038 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 138 PM MST Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A weather system will swing through the region today and tonight bringing more breezy to locally windy conditions as well as chances for light showers focused over the Arizona high terrain. - Weak high pressure will settle back into the region during the middle of the week leading to drier and slightly warmer conditions. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Large scale troughing continues over much of Western CONUS with upper level moisture being advected into the region from the SW. Following close behind the main troughing feature is another smaller disturbance that has already begun to merge with the main trough and is diving down California's coast, moving closer to the Desert SW. However, a patch of dry air can be seen on GOES water vapor imagery to the regions west, which will dry out the upper levels as it pushes inland along with the aforementioned trough starting this evening and overnight. Hi-Res CAMs suggest some isolated showers likely to develop however will be fighting against a dry boundary layer, so much of the lower deserts will at most see a trace while the Arizona higher terrain may receive a few hundredths to up to a tenth of an inch in localized areas. As the disturbance continues to weaken and lifts to the northeast on Tuesday, a few light showers may still be possible during the morning hours over far eastern Arizona. Otherwise, breezy to windy conditions will continue across the vast majority of the region this afternoon as these systems move through. Wind gusts this afternoon/evening will be between 20-30 mph, with periods of 30-40 mph possible in southeastern California. Winds across most of the region are expected to relax by midnight tonight, with the exception of southeast California, where winds will persist through the morning hours. Thanks to these systems, afternoon high temperatures will be below normal for this time of year. Today's high temperature will be in the mid to upper 70s across southeast California, and in the upper 70s to low 80s in the Phoenix area. By tomorrow, southeast California will begin to warm back up into the upper 70s to low 80s as the system pushes farther eastwards, while the Phoenix area will be in the upper 70s. This will be the coolest day of the week for the Phoenix area. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Shortwave ridging will briefly move through the region on Wednesday leading to another quiet day while temperatures warm back into the mid 80s for most lower desert locations. A robust Pacific low pressure system will also move through the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday on its way to the Great Basin by Thursday. Ensembles continue to favor a more northern track with this low across the Great Basin and into the Central Rockies while also weakening. The base of the trough may clip Arizona, but all indications so far keep any system energy and moisture well to our north. However, the fairly close proximity of the system should be enough to bring more breezy to locally windy conditions on Thursday and/or Friday while also leading to a slight dip in temperatures likely for Friday. Looking ahead for next weekend a more significant ridge is expected to move over the Western U.S. with the NBM suggesting a return of highs back into the 90s by Sunday. Fortunately, this warm up may be fairly brief as guidance mostly favors another trough moving in from the west northwest at some point during the first half of next week. && .AVIATION...Updated at 1825Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: The main aviation concern during the TAF period will be breezy conditions during much of the afternoon and evening hours. Speeds will gradually increase over the course of the next few hours, with gusts around 20-25 kts. Although confidence is low, regional virga may cause some sudden and strong wind shifts. If this were to be realized at one of any of the terminals, it is not out of the question that a brief period of reduced VIS in BLDU may be observed A narrow window of higher gusts (25+ kt) will be seen early tonight as a front progresses through the region but winds should begin to calm into the overnight and early morning hours. This boundary will also present the potential for some isolated shower activity, but the the timing is too short and potential too low to warrant inclusion of SHRA in the TAFs at this time. Considerable cloud cover will be present through tonight, with the lowest bases around 6-8 kft. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: The main aviation concerns at both TAF sites will be gusty winds, this afternoon and evening. W'rly and SW'rly winds will be favored through tonight at KIPL and KBLH respectively. Gusts 20-30 kts will be common at both terminals through the afternoon before speeds eventually relax this evening/tonight. SCT to potentially BKN bases around 7-8 kft will be observed during much of the daylight hours before skies clear out. && .FIRE WEATHER... A weather system will pass through the region this evening through the overnight period, with chances for mostly high terrain showers, but CWR will be less than 10%. Today will again be quite breezy with afternoon and evening wind gusts between 20-30 mph over much of the area. MinRHs today will rise to 25-30% before lowering to 15-25% Tuesday and 10-15% starting Wednesday as dry air fully encompasses the region. Overall light winds are forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday while temperatures warm back into the normal range by Wednesday. Dry conditions will prevail through the rest of the week, but a passing weather system on Thursday and Friday should bring another round of breezy to windy conditions. The low humidities and the increased winds late week may bring a period of elevated fire weather conditions heading into the weekend. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Ryan LONG TERM...Kuhlman AVIATION...RW FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman/Ryan  220 FXUS66 KEKA 132040 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 140 PM PDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Dry weather is expected through Tuesday evening, with chilly overnight temperatures expected tonight for the interior. Rain likely returns by Tuesday night into Wednesday. Near freezing or freezing low temperatures are expected late in the week. More rain possible over the weekend. && .DISCUSSION...Morning clouds were widespread across most areas this morning, but still many of the coldest valleys observed temperatures in the 30s. These clouds will slowly scatter out as high pressure continues to build. Chilly temperatures are likely again tonight, with near-freezing temperatures possible in the coldest valleys. A frost advisory has been issued for northern Mendocino and Lake Counties. Fog in some valleys could keep temperatures slightly higher than forecast, though as we saw this morning, temperatures can still get drop into the 30s despite the cloud cover. Dry weather is expected for the start of Tuesday with warmer temperatures expected for the interior. Many of the valleys could see highs in the 60s. Tuesday night and Wednesday, an upper low moving into Washington is expected drag a front across northern CA and bring some rain. Breezy south winds of 20 to 30 mph are possible. The most rain and strongest winds are mainly expected to impact Del Norte and Humboldt counties. Rainfall amounts have continued to trend upwards in the models for this storm. The current NBM is showing rainfall amounts around an inch for Crescent City and Del Norte, but rapidly diminish as the front moves south and weakens. Around a half inch is expected in Eureka, a quarter inch in Weaverville and northern Mendocino county. Less than a tenth of an inch is expected in southern Mendocino and Lake counties. As usual, the mountains will see more than the valleys. Snow levels are expected to be over 5,000 feet for most of the precip, but may drop below 4,000 feet as the precip comes to an end Wednesday evening. Breezy west winds in excess of 30 mph are possible Wednesday evening in Lake County. Wednesday night into Thursday morning has the potential to be an unseasonably cold morning. The NBM is showing lows in the 20s in northern Lake, northeast Mendocino, and much of Trinity county. While this is certainly possible, fog and low clouds may develop in some of the valleys to limit the radiational cooling. Thursday afternoon, clear skies and dry conditions are expected with highs warming back into the 60s. This will likely set up Thursday night to be the coldest night with lows in the upper 20s to upper 30s across the area. Even the coast may see frost with some weak offshore flow. Friday and Saturday afternoon highs in the interior are expected to warm into the 70s and Saturday morning will likely not be as cold as Friday morning. Saturday night through Monday, more rain is expected. At this point, the probability of over a half inch is less than a 50 percent for any particular 24 hour period. In a 72 hour period, much of the northern half of the area has a 50-70% chance for over 0.5", while the southern half has around a 20-40% chance. Chances for over an inch in 72 hours are around 50% in the mountains of Del Norte and the King Range. Details of this system will become clearer in the coming days. && .AVIATION...Northwest California remains within the cold air of a trough over the western United States. Plenty of moisture within this environment has allowed widespread cumulus to form over the mountainous terrain, though a cap aloft is restricting vertical development. These clouds have spread toward the coast bringing cloud cover to ACV and CEC, but generally remaining just above MVFR today. The terrain induced cumulus will dissipate this evening allowing for overnight cooling and eventually lower ceilings to develop, especially north of Cape Mendocino along the coast. Additional clouds are likely in the interior valleys and UKI may see some overnight IFR conditions as well. /RPA && .MARINE...Northerlies have increased today with the pressure gradient tightening behind a departing frontal system at the same time as high pressure builds off the coast. This has resulted in some small craft conditions in the southern water zones today that will persist into tonight. Winds will decrease on Tuesday as the front/trough continues to move inland and the next storm system approaches the Pacific Northwest. Winds will briefly turn out of the south starting Tuesday into Tuesday night ahead of the next frontal passage. A few areas in the north could see nearly small craft conditions ahead of the front. However, winds will sharply turn back out of the north as the front passes through the waters on Wednesday with small craft and possibly gale conditions developing Wednesday night into Thursday and Thursday night. /RPA && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM PDT Tuesday for CAZ110-111- 114-115. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ455-475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png  917 FXUS66 KOTX 132043 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 143 PM PDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A robust cold front to deliver valley rain, mountain snow, and gusty winds Tuesday through Thursday. - Drier and warmer weather returns Friday into the weekend. && .SYNOPSIS... A cold front passage Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday will bring lowland rain, mountain snow, and breezy to windy conditions. Some snow will make it down to the lowlands Wednesday night into Thursday morning on the tail end of the mid- week system. && .DISCUSSION... Monday afternoon and evening: Monday afternoon and evening will feature breezy westerly winds through the Cascade gaps and across the Columbia Basin into the Central ID Panhandle. In addition to the winds, thunderstorm chances (15 to 25 percent) will linger over northeastern WA (north of a line from Rosalia to Wauconda) and across North ID. Thunderstorms will be widely scattered and short-lived, similar to what we've seen the past couple of days. The main threats with any storms that develop will be locally heavy rain, gusty and erratic winds, and pea- sized hail. Tuesday to Thursday: Low pressure drops southward from the Gulf of AK through this period, enveloping the Inland Northwest in colder air and bringing returning chances for precipitation. Rain and mountain snow chances increase through Tuesday as the low approaches, then stick around through Wednesday night (for the Cascades and Eastern WA) and through Thursday (for the ID Panhandle). The exception will be over Central WA where rain shadowing due to strong westerly flow aloft will keep PoPs lower, between 20 and 40 percent. Snow levels will start out between 3500-4500 feet (lowest near the Cascades) Tuesday afternoon, then will drop to between 1000-1500 feet by Thursday morning. Look for mountain snow and lowland rain to start, followed by a transition to a rain/snow mix or even all snow for some lowland areas overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning. Precipitation chances start to wane by then, but there will still be potential for some lowland accumulations during that time frame. The biggest snow impacts are expected over the mountain passes. Here are some 48-hour snow probabilities of 2 inches, 4 inches, 6 inches, 8 inches, and 12 inches from Tuesday morning to Thursday morning: 2 4 6 8 12 Stevens Pass 100% 100% 100% 75% 25% Snoqualmie Pass 100% 90% 80% 50% 10% Lookout Pass 98% 80% 55% 40% 10% Sherman Pass 75% 45% 25% 15% 1% The chance for 0.1 inches of snow at select lowland locations for Wednesday night into Thursday AM: Pullman 55% Sandpoint 60% Spokane 20% Winds will remain gusty through this Tuesday-Thursday period. Tuesday's winds will be southwest 15-20 mph with gusts of 25-40 mph. Winds turn more west-northwest Wednesday and Thursday, with similar speeds but gusts around 20-30 mph. Friday through Sunday: Conditions trend warmer and drier Friday into the weekend as a weak ridge of high pressure builds in behind the exiting low. && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS: IFR to MVFR conditions for KGEG-KSFF-KCOE-KPUW will trend towards VFR this afternoon as precipitation shifts east. Gusty southwest winds will increase into the early afternoon in the Inland northwest gusting around 20-30 kt. There is a 10-20% chance of thunderstorms from 21z-03z for KGEG-KSFF-KCOE. Confidence is too low for thunderstorms in the TAF. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Moderate confidence in VFR conditions later Monday afternoon to evening. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 37 51 38 47 30 49 / 10 40 90 80 40 30 Coeur d'Alene 37 51 38 45 30 46 / 20 50 100 90 60 60 Pullman 35 51 39 45 29 44 / 10 20 90 100 70 60 Lewiston 37 59 44 52 34 49 / 10 10 90 90 60 50 Colville 35 53 35 50 27 52 / 30 70 90 70 40 30 Sandpoint 37 45 36 40 29 42 / 60 80 100 90 70 70 Kellogg 37 46 38 43 29 41 / 50 50 100 100 70 90 Moses Lake 37 58 40 55 31 57 / 0 20 20 40 10 0 Wenatchee 42 55 39 52 34 55 / 0 40 50 30 10 0 Omak 38 50 36 47 29 51 / 0 50 50 30 10 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 5 PM PDT Wednesday for Okanogan Highlands. Winter Storm Warning from 11 AM Tuesday to 5 AM PDT Wednesday for Western Chelan County. Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 5 AM PDT Wednesday for Western Okanogan County. ID...None. && $$  430 FXUS63 KJKL 132045 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 445 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Unseasonably warm conditions are expected for much of the next week. - The warmest days are forecast to be Tuesday through Saturday. New daily record high temperatures are possible, if not likely, on the warmest days. - Scattered light rain showers are possible through early this evening, with little in the way of measurable rainfall. - Shower chances and small thunderstorm chances return late tonight and linger into Tuesday. Additional showers/storms are possible at times through this week and into the weekend. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 430 PM EDT MON APR 13 2026 Late this afternoon, an upper level ridge was centered in the eastern Gulf and extended across parts of Central America. An upper level low was centered in the Hudson Bay vicinity while an upper level trough extended across western portions of the Conus. This pattern is resulting in southwest flow aloft across eastern KY and the OH Valley region. At the surface, a ridge of high pressure was centered in parts of the Atlantic and extended into the Southeast to Southern Appalachians. Showers were moving across southern portions of the area at this time as well as over Elliott County. Rainfall has ranged from a few sprinkles or a traces in southern portions of the area to as much as third of an inch or so north of the Mountain Parkway. Temperatures as if 4 PM were mainly in the 70s with a few 60s where some of the heavier showers were occurring. Southwest to west southwest flow should dominate through the short term period as upper level ridging remains centered in the eastern Gulf into parts of the southeast and the current western Conus trough moves into the High Plains and nears the Central Conus. This evening and tonight, as the disturbance that is aiding the shower activity across the region moves east of the area this evening, shower chances will diminish and low and mid level clouds should thin at least for a few hours in the evening to the overnight per model time height sections. This should allow for valleys to decouple as the clouds thin and a moderate magnitude ridge/valley split. Lower 50s should occur in the normally colder valleys while ridges settle near 60s. If there is sufficient clearing where some of the heavier rain fell, some fog could form, but confidence was not high enough to include at this point given the recent dryness. Another disturbance in southwest flow between the upper ridge centered over the eastern Gulf to portions of the southeast and an upper trough that moves across portions of the western Conus should approach late tonight and cross the area on Tuesday. In advance of it, an uptick in the LLJ should occur late tonight into early on Tuesday. This could result in shower activity toward dawn, especially in the northwest, though recent CAM runs and have minimal activity late tonight and on Tuesday for that matter. The past two GFS runs have more in the way of activity for that matter while the ECMWF also is more scant with activity. The neutral height tendencies if not slight rises on Tuesday support the idea of minimal activity. For now isolated to scattered pops were carried for Tuesday. With less shower activity and southwest flow leading to warm air advection, temperatures should warm compared to today with widespread highs in the 80 anticipated. Ridging dominates for Tuesday night withe less potential for low and mid level clouds. This should support an even wider ridge valley split of low to mid 50s eastern/southeastern valleys to low to mid 60s on ridgetops and more open terrain locations. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 301 AM EDT MON APR 13 2026 Ridging at the surface and aloft over the southeast CONUS will remain persistent during most of the long term period. A mean, positively tilted upper level trough will be situated mainly over the western half of the CONUS, with an associated, wavering frontal boundary from the southern plains to Great Lakes. Ascending flow off the Gulf (with higher moisture content) will be more predominant further to our west and northwest, closer to the aforementioned frontal boundary, and that is where the higher POPs will be in general. However, occasional shortwave troughs pressing into the upper level ridge as they pass through the flow will probably be enough to bring scattered showers/thunderstorms into our area at times. The GFS and ECMWF agree on the two most prominent waves giving us our highest POPs on Thursday into Thursday night, and again on Saturday night into Sunday. Without any cold frontal passages through Saturday, much above temperatures will dominate the period, with temperatures influenced by the potential occurrence of clouds/precip. The most significant wave aloft will be the one next weekend, which is expected to be strong enough to finally bring another cold frontal passage, with somewhat lower temperatures by Sunday. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT MON APR 13 2026 VFR prevailed at TAF issuance time. Showers were moving across the region, though these were not resulting in reductions below VFR. Some gusts from the southwest of 20KT were occurring, with a few briefly stronger gusts on the leading edge of the shower activity. Showers should diminish from west to east/northwest to southeast during the first 6 hours of the period. Southwest winds will average between 6 and 13KT to begin the period, though these should diminish toward with the loss of daytime heating. Winds will increase aloft as a disturbance approaches after about 04Z which will result in a marginal LLWS threat between about 06Z and 12Z. Some shower or thunderstorm activity may affect locations near and north of I-64 including KIOB and KSYM prior to 12Z as the disturbance approaches. This activity should spread southeast to end the period and could bring brief sub VFR reductions. Southwest winds at 5 to 15KT with gusts to around 20KT should return to end the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...HAL/CMC AVIATION...JP  147 FXUS66 KPDT 132048 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 148 PM PDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy to windy today. - Winter weather and wind returns late Tuesday. Winter weather headlines have been issued for the Cascades. - Near- to sub-freezing morning lows Thursday and Friday for the lowlands. && .DISCUSSION... A deformation band brought copious precipitation to northeast Oregon and southeast Washington late yesterday into this morning. Satellite shows the upper low responsible for the wet weather has tracked east into the Rockies. In its wake, skies have partially cleared, and strong cross-Cascade pressure gradients (~9-11 mb difference between PDX and GEG) in tandem with strong cold air advection (CAA) have driven widespread breezy to windy westerly winds through the Cascade gaps and into the Columbia Basin. Strongest winds have been noted through the exit region of the eastern Columbia River Gorge, lower Columbia Basin of Oregon, Kittitas Valley, and foothills of the northern Blue Mountains of Oregon. Previously, anticipated the winds to slacken by late morning to early afternoon, so opted to highlight the winds with Special Weather Statements. In hindsight, Wind Advisories would have been justified as numerous sites such as PDT, HRI, and ELN have either flirted with or maintained advisory-level sustained winds (30 mph) or gusts (45 mph) into the afternoon hours. Either way, winds should weaken by tonight as the shortwave that is tracking overhead pushes east and pressure gradients slacken. The break in significant weather will be short-lived as another strong weather system is expected (95 percent confidence) to arrive late Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon. Ensemble and deterministic NWP guidance are in excellent agreement that this system, the shortwave trough currently present in the Gulf of Alaska, will drop southeast into the Pacific Northwest with its attendant cold front expected (90 percent confidence) to lower snow levels below mountain pass levels by later Tuesday morning (Washington Cascades) through Tuesday afternoon (Oregon Cascades). Winter weather headlines have been issued for moderate to heavy snowfall for the Cascades. Confidence is high (80 percent) in 4-8 inches of snowfall for the Washington Cascades with 6-12 inches for the Oregon Cascades, locally higher along the crests. The bulk of the snowfall will likely (80 percent confidence) end through Wednesday morning or early afternoon as the front sags southeast, but upslope snow showers will persist through Wednesday night or Thursday morning as the upper low moves overhead. Precipitation for non-mountain areas will be mostly rain below 1500-2000 feet, though uncertainty exists in snowfall between 2000 and 4000 feet. Much of this uncertainty is driven by how long the frontal band lingers over the lowlands, and also in post-frontal snow showers. Widespread breezy to windy southwest winds are expected Tuesday afternoon and night in advance of the cold frontal passage. By Wednesday afternoon, winds will become westerly to northwesterly in the wake of the front and remain diurnally breezy to windy through Thursday. Probabilities of exceeding advisory levels is widely varying (30-80 percent), highest for wind-prone locations of the foothills of the Blue Mountains and north-central Oregon Tuesday then the Kittitas Valley for Wednesday and Thursday. Near- to below-freezing morning temperatures are forecast for many lowland areas Thursday and Friday, just in time for growing season. NBM calibrated probabilities suggest medium-high chances (60-90 percent) of freezing temperatures for the Yakima and Kittitas valleys, medium probabilities (30-70 percent) along the foothills of the Blue Mountains, and low-medium (20-40 percent) for the lowest elevations including the eastern Columbia River Gorge and lower Columbia Basin. An upper-level ridge will likely (80 percent confidence) build into the Pacific Northwest Friday into the weekend, yielding lighter winds and mostly dry conditions. By Sunday, uncertainty in the 500-hPa pattern grows, but some flavor of a 500-hPa closed low or trough is advertised by ensemble clusters. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... VFR conditions are expected through Tuesday. The main aviation concern will be strong west to northwest winds that will gust in the 20 to 30 kt range with some locations possibly as high as 35 kts. Breezy winds are expected over the next few days. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 36 59 42 52 / 0 10 60 90 ALW 40 58 44 52 / 0 20 80 100 PSC 40 61 45 58 / 0 20 30 80 YKM 36 58 38 54 / 0 20 60 40 HRI 39 61 43 56 / 0 10 30 80 ELN 36 52 33 48 / 0 40 60 40 RDM 27 56 35 50 / 0 10 40 90 LGD 32 57 40 49 / 20 10 100 100 GCD 30 58 38 49 / 30 10 70 100 DLS 41 58 42 54 / 0 30 80 80 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 11 PM PDT Wednesday for WAZ522. OR...Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM Tuesday to 5 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ509. && $$ DISCUSSION...86 AVIATION...77  799 FXUS65 KCYS 132048 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 248 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Red Flag Warnings continue for areas east of the Laramie Range through 8PM today due to gusty winds and dry conditions. - Scattered rain and snow showers in Carbon and Albany counties late tonight into Tuesday morning may result in a few slick spots along the I-80 corridor and accumulating snow above about 8500 feet in elevation. - A strong but compact system will bring a chance for rain to the High Plains, mainly Tuesday afternoon and evening. - Warmer and drier weather returns for Wednesday and Thursday, bringing elevated to critical fire weather conditions and marginally high winds in the wind prone areas. - A potent weather disturbance will produce windy, colder and wetter weather for Thursday night and Friday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Warm and dry conditions remain over the area once again today. Breezy to windy conditions are producing widespread critical fire weather conditions. Current GOES water vapor imagery shows a messy synoptic weather pattern across the western CONUS. At least three disorganized upper level lows are circulating over the area. As each of these features traverses east, we will have a complex setup heading into Tuesday. The main player will be the nearly closed low currently over southern California which will move off to the northeast over the next 24 hours, but this will get interference from another upper level low currently over the northern Rockies. Upper level moisture will increase from the southwest, supporting a few virga showers this afternoon and evening. As moisture aloft improves, these will be more likely to reach the ground especially after midnight or so. Look for rain and snow showers to spread across Carbon and Albany counties into Tuesday morning. Snow levels will start out between 6500 and 7500 feet, supporting a rain snow mix along I-80 between Cheyenne and Rawlins. Due to the pre-dawn timing, there could be some light accumulations and slick spots in these areas with daybreak Tuesday, but conditions should improve quickly with the strong April sun. The higher peaks will also benefit from much better orographic lift. Above 10,000 feet or so, probabilities for 6" or more of snow are around 50 to 65%. This could warrant a low end Winter Weather Advisory, but opted to pass on this due to the marginal totals confined only to the highest peaks. Still, travelers in the mountains should prepare for some areas of snow and slick conditions Tuesday morning. Further east, a southwest to northeast oriented low-level convergence boundary is expected to kick off elevated shower activity, but it will be harder to overcome the dry boundary layer east of the Laramie Range. Still, PoPs in the 15 to 40 percent range are present over the area. Surface winds will be all over the place on Tuesday, but speeds should be fairly light with the possible exception of the I-80 corridor between Laramie and Sidney where east to southeast winds may be gusty at times. Heading into Tuesday afternoon, the approaching upper level low will support lee-cyclogenesis over northeast Colorado. The morning convergence boundary supporting the shower activity will get pulled into the strengthening system as it moves off to the northeast. Models show fairly potent mid level frontogenesis as this occurs, and a very narrow TROWAL developing by Tuesday evening as the system departs. The main uncertainty is where exactly this occurs. The overall system will be extremely compact, such that a difference in 50 to 100 miles in the exact location of lee cyclogenesis could mean the difference between beneficial rainfall and nothing at all for the High Plains. In addition to the synoptic forcing, a few hundred J/kg of CAPE are expected to be present, so some isolated embedded thunderstorms will be possible. The most likely scenario tomorrow evening will be a band of moderate rainfall traversing from west to east across the area, with potential for localized areas receiving over 0.25" of rainfall. There are still a few ensemble members (and the deterministic GFS) that keep the forcing for rainfall entirely south of our area, but model consensus is for this to occur somewhere likely south of a Wheatland to Chadron line. Overall confidence is pretty low in precipitation amounts and location, but there will be a high ceiling too due to the strong but narrow forcing and plentiful mid to upper level moisture. Light rain may continue after midnight, but we should be done with this system by Wednesday morning. Ridging will rebound over the area on Wednesday into Thursday, resuming the mild and dry weather pattern that has dominated this season so far. Look for temperatures around 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal averages on Wednesday, climbing closer to 15 degrees above average for Thursday east of the Laramie Range. Expect breezy westerly flow on Wednesday, which will turn southwesterly on Thursday ahead of the next system diving into the Pacific northwest. Widespread elevated to near critical fire weather conditions will be present both days. In addition, we will need to watch for another round of marginally high winds. The wind prone areas have approximately a 30 to 40% chance for high winds on Wednesday. As the flow turns more southwest Thursday, this will decrease to around 10 to 20% for the I-80 summit and Bordeaux areas, but increase to around 50 to 60% for the Arlington and Elk Mountain areas. This may also extend a little further west than usual, perhaps into the Rawlins area. LREF median 700-mb winds are around 45 knots over Rawlins Thursday morning, which gives probabilities around 50 to 60% here as well. As is typical with southwest flow, we will also have to watch Converse county, which currently has a 30% chance for seeing high winds on Wednesday night and Thursday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Thursday night-Friday...A progressive and sharp trough aloft and its associated cold front move from Idaho and Utah Thursday evening, to western Wyoming late Thursday night, with the cold front passing our counties Thursday night. The trough axis aloft tracks across our counties during the day on Friday. Fairly high confidence in scattered to numerous rain and snow showers spreading from west to east Thursday night, with likely to widespread snow showers Friday afternoon. Much cooler and windy on Friday with maximum temperatures in the mid 30s and 40s. Winter weather highlights may be needed for the mountains and nearby locations. Saturday...Snow showers will gradually end from west to east early in the day, as the shortwave trough aloft moves into the northern Great Plains states. Strong low and mid level northwest flow will help produce a windy day, with possible high winds for our wind prone locations. Somewhat warmer than Friday with 700 mb temperatures near 6 Celsius. Sunday...The flow aloft weakens as low amplitude shortwave ridging aloft develops over Wyoming, producing dry conditions and mild temperatures in the upper 50s and 60s with 700 mb temperatures near 2 Celsius. Monday...Ridging aloft moves over our forecast area, with surface lee troughing over our eastern counties, producing a dry and mild day. 700 mb temperatures near 8 Celsius will yield maximum temperatures in the mid 60s west of I-25, with 70s east of I-25. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1251 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Southwest flow aloft will continue. A weather disturbance and its associated cold front will move into central Wyoming Tuesday morning, producing isolated to scattered rain and snow showers for our terminals. Wyoming TAFS...Scattered clouds from 12000 to 15000 feet will prevail until 01Z, then ceilings will range from 10000 to 12000 feet until late tonight and Tuesday morning, with ceilings likely (70 percent likelihood) becoming near 4000 feet Tuesday morning, and scattered rain and snow showers at Rawlins and Laramie reducing visibilities to 4 miles after 15Z Tuesday, with moderate to high confidence in shower coverage. Winds will gust to 40 knots until 02Z. Nebraska TAFS...Scattered to broken clouds from 12000 to 15000 feet will occur until 15Z, with ceilings most likely (near 70 percent) near 5000 feet after 15Z Tuesday, along with isolated rain showers, 10 to 20 percent coverage, in the vicinity. Winds will gust to 39 knots until 00Z to 03Z. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for WYZ417>419- 430>433. High Wind Warning until 3 PM MDT this afternoon for WYZ110. High Wind Watch until 3 PM MDT this afternoon for WYZ116. NE...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for NEZ434>437. && $$ SHORT TERM...MN LONG TERM...RUBIN AVIATION...RUBIN  978 FXUS63 KBIS 132048 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 348 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Medium to high chances for showers through tonight. - A few thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into tonight, with an isolated strong to marginally severe storm possible far southwest and south central. - Mainly dry and warmer Tuesday and Wednesday. - Wide range in temperatures from northwest to southeast Thursday as a cold front pushes into the State. - Significant cool down for the end of this week, with medium chances for rain and snow. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 158 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Chances for showers and thunderstorms through tonight, with a low potential for a few strong to marginally severe storms far south late this afternoon and this evening. Drying out Tuesday, warm Wednesday, then a significant cooldown late in the workweek and into the weekend. Latest satellite imagery and upper level analysis shows upper level circulation along the MT/ID border with additional shortwave energy lifting from WY into southeast MT. Showers and scattered thunderstorms have been on the increase over Northeast WY into southeast MT over the past hour or so. This has resulted in steep low and mid-level lapse rates over this area. Through the remainder of the afternoon as the shortwave propagates east northeast, expect this environment to work into the western Dakotas. SPC has issued a MCD for portions of northwest SD into southeast MT and northeast WY. The problem is, the farther north and east you go, the more stable the environment. We expect convection, some strong, will approach southwest ND this afternoon. The main question is how far can it progress into the forecast area, characterized by a more stable lower level environment, before dissipating. The main threats with the high based convection will be strong wind gusts to 60 mph. Better chances will remain south of the border, but an isolated strong to marginally severe storm can not be ruled out late this afternoon through the evening along the South Dakota border in the southwest and south central. As we then go through the evening and overnight as the mid-upper level circulation tracks from far southwest ND through east central ND. This will support scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms tracking through the forecast area tonight. Late tonight, as the precipitation lifts into northeast ND, there it the potential for a bit of mixed precip around the Turtle Mountains. At this time the warm temperatures should inhibit any significant snow accumulation, but a little accumulation on grassy surfaces can not be ruled out. For the most part warming Tuesday and Wednesday with mostly dry conditions. Our given NBM guidance gave us several hours of splotchy slight chance pops on Tuesday over western ND. There does appear to be a small potential for an afternoon shower or possible thunderstorm. we opted to include a broad brush slight chance pops over the west Tuesday afternoon. It's possible that as we go into the evening, we could see slight chances propagate into central ND. For now we will limit the slight chance pops to mainly along and west of the Highway 83 corridor, Tuesday afternoon. Wednesday looks to be warm and mild. We could see afternoon humidities drop into the 20-25 percent range over southwest ND but winds look to be rather light out of the southwest Wednesday afternoon. In the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe an upper level low in the eastern Pacific drops south and moves onto the Pacific Northwest coast by Thursday. This will result in surface cyclogenesis in the lee of the northern and central Rockies and by Thursday the surface low ejects onto the Plains. At this time it looks like the energy in this upper trough splits with a piece tracking north of the forecast and another tracking well south of the area. Current temperature guidance on Thursday suggest a 30 degree or so difference in temperatures between the far north (mid to upper 40s) and the southern James River Valley (Mid to upper 70s). Should we reach the mid 70s across the south central on Thursday, we could see a period low humidities, possibly into the low to mid 20s in the far south central east into the southern JRV. Winds should not be an too strong during this timeframe. As the upper level trough swings through the northern Plains we will see a period of precipitation, most likely rain initially, then changing to snow. With the split flow pattern there remains quite a bit of uncertainty as to how much qpf we see. Right now, the NBM 24 hour probability of a quarter inch of liquid from Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon remains low across all of western and central ND. Whether that falls as rain, snow or a mix, impacts from qpf amounts look to be low. There will be a period of strong wind with this system, followed by much colder temperatures late in the workweek and into at least the first half of the weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1129 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Expect widespread IFR to LIFR ceilings across western and central ND through tonight. There will be times this afternoon and evening when some MVFR ceilings may be found, but overall, expect low stratus to remain through much of the night. Do expect some improvement in ceiling from west to east Tuesday morning. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible central and south, then mostly in the south tonight. Any thunderstorms will have the capability of producing gusty and erratic winds with low vsbys in heavy downpours. Expect an easterly surface flow today and tonight 5 to 15 Kts, turning south to southwest 5 to 15 Kts on Tuesday. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TWH AVIATION...TWH  789 FXUS65 KCYS 132050 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 250 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Red Flag Warnings continue for areas east of the Laramie Range through 8PM today due to gusty winds and dry conditions. - Scattered rain and snow showers in Carbon and Albany counties late tonight into Tuesday morning may result in a few slick spots along the I-80 corridor and accumulating snow above about 8500 feet in elevation. - A strong but compact system will bring a chance for rain to the High Plains, mainly Tuesday afternoon and evening. - Warmer and drier weather returns for Wednesday and Thursday, bringing elevated to critical fire weather conditions and marginally high winds in the wind prone areas. - A potent weather disturbance will produce windy, colder and wetter weather for Thursday night and Friday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Warm and dry conditions remain over the area once again today. Breezy to windy conditions are producing widespread critical fire weather conditions. Current GOES water vapor imagery shows a messy synoptic weather pattern across the western CONUS. At least three disorganized upper level lows are circulating over the area. As each of these features traverses east, we will have a complex setup heading into Tuesday. The main player will be the nearly closed low currently over southern California which will move off to the northeast over the next 24 hours, but this will get interference from another upper level low currently over the northern Rockies. Upper level moisture will increase from the southwest, supporting a few virga showers this afternoon and evening. As moisture aloft improves, these will be more likely to reach the ground especially after midnight or so. Look for rain and snow showers to spread across Carbon and Albany counties into Tuesday morning. Snow levels will start out between 6500 and 7500 feet, supporting a rain snow mix along I-80 between Cheyenne and Rawlins. Due to the pre-dawn timing, there could be some light accumulations and slick spots in these areas with daybreak Tuesday, but conditions should improve quickly with the strong April sun. The higher peaks will also benefit from much better orographic lift. Above 10,000 feet or so, probabilities for 6" or more of snow are around 50 to 65%. This could warrant a low end Winter Weather Advisory, but opted to pass on this due to the marginal totals confined only to the highest peaks. Still, travelers in the mountains should prepare for some areas of snow and slick conditions Tuesday morning. Further east, a southwest to northeast oriented low-level convergence boundary is expected to kick off elevated shower activity, but it will be harder to overcome the dry boundary layer east of the Laramie Range. Still, PoPs in the 15 to 40 percent range are present over the area. Surface winds will be all over the place on Tuesday, but speeds should be fairly light with the possible exception of the I-80 corridor between Laramie and Sidney where east to southeast winds may be gusty at times. Heading into Tuesday afternoon, the approaching upper level low will support lee-cyclogenesis over northeast Colorado. The morning convergence boundary supporting the shower activity will get pulled into the strengthening system as it moves off to the northeast. Models show fairly potent mid level frontogenesis as this occurs, and a very narrow TROWAL developing by Tuesday evening as the system departs. The main uncertainty is where exactly this occurs. The overall system will be extremely compact, such that a difference in 50 to 100 miles in the exact location of lee cyclogenesis could mean the difference between beneficial rainfall and nothing at all for the High Plains. In addition to the synoptic forcing, a few hundred J/kg of CAPE are expected to be present, so some isolated embedded thunderstorms will be possible. The most likely scenario tomorrow evening will be a band of moderate rainfall traversing from west to east across the area, with potential for localized areas receiving over 0.25" of rainfall. There are still a few ensemble members (and the deterministic GFS) that keep the forcing for rainfall entirely south of our area, but model consensus is for this to occur somewhere likely south of a Wheatland to Chadron line. Overall confidence is pretty low in precipitation amounts and location, but there will be a high ceiling too due to the strong but narrow forcing and plentiful mid to upper level moisture. Light rain may continue after midnight, but we should be done with this system by Wednesday morning. Ridging will rebound over the area on Wednesday into Thursday, resuming the mild and dry weather pattern that has dominated this season so far. Look for temperatures around 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal averages on Wednesday, climbing closer to 15 degrees above average for Thursday east of the Laramie Range. Expect breezy westerly flow on Wednesday, which will turn southwesterly on Thursday ahead of the next system diving into the Pacific northwest. Widespread elevated to near critical fire weather conditions will be present both days. In addition, we will need to watch for another round of marginally high winds. The wind prone areas have approximately a 30 to 40% chance for high winds on Wednesday. As the flow turns more southwest Thursday, this will decrease to around 10 to 20% for the I-80 summit and Bordeaux areas, but increase to around 50 to 60% for the Arlington and Elk Mountain areas. This may also extend a little further west than usual, perhaps into the Rawlins area. LREF median 700-mb winds are around 45 knots over Rawlins Thursday morning, which gives probabilities around 50 to 60% here as well. As is typical with southwest flow, we will also have to watch Converse county, which currently has a 30% chance for seeing high winds on Wednesday night and Thursday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Thursday night-Friday...A progressive and sharp trough aloft and its associated cold front move from Idaho and Utah Thursday evening, to western Wyoming late Thursday night, with the cold front passing our counties Thursday night. The trough axis aloft tracks across our counties during the day on Friday. Fairly high confidence in scattered to numerous rain and snow showers spreading from west to east Thursday night, with likely to widespread snow showers Friday afternoon. Much cooler and windy on Friday with maximum temperatures in the mid 30s and 40s. Winter weather highlights may be needed for the mountains and nearby locations. Saturday...Snow showers will gradually end from west to east early in the day, as the shortwave trough aloft moves into the northern Great Plains states. Strong low and mid level northwest flow will help produce a windy day, with possible high winds for our wind prone locations. Somewhat warmer than Friday with 700 mb temperatures near 6 Celsius. Sunday...The flow aloft weakens as low amplitude shortwave ridging aloft develops over Wyoming, producing dry conditions and mild temperatures in the upper 50s and 60s with 700 mb temperatures near 2 Celsius. Monday...Ridging aloft moves over our forecast area, with surface lee troughing over our eastern counties, producing a dry and mild day. 700 mb temperatures near 8 Celsius will yield maximum temperatures in the mid 60s west of I-25, with 70s east of I-25. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1251 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Southwest flow aloft will continue. A weather disturbance and its associated cold front will move into central Wyoming Tuesday morning, producing isolated to scattered rain and snow showers for our terminals. Wyoming TAFS...Scattered clouds from 12000 to 15000 feet will prevail until 01Z, then ceilings will range from 10000 to 12000 feet until late tonight and Tuesday morning, with ceilings likely (70 percent likelihood) becoming near 4000 feet Tuesday morning, and scattered rain and snow showers at Rawlins and Laramie reducing visibilities to 4 miles after 15Z Tuesday, with moderate to high confidence in shower coverage. Winds will gust to 40 knots until 02Z. Nebraska TAFS...Scattered to broken clouds from 12000 to 15000 feet will occur until 15Z, with ceilings most likely (near 70 percent) near 5000 feet after 15Z Tuesday, along with isolated rain showers, 10 to 20 percent coverage, in the vicinity. Winds will gust to 39 knots until 00Z to 03Z. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for WYZ417>419- 430>433. NE...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for NEZ434>437. && $$ SHORT TERM...MN LONG TERM...RUBIN AVIATION...RUBIN  853 FXUS63 KAPX 132052 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 452 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Ongoing flooding may worsen with additional rain and storms tonight. Highest rainfall expected south of M-72. - Severe thunderstorm chances tonight and again Tuesday evening/Tuesday night with primary hazards of damaging winds and large hail. - Additional rounds of rain and mild temperatures through this week before turning cold late this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 450 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Pattern Synopsis: Southwest mid/upper-level flow will remain draped across the heart of the CONUS through the middle of the week as embedded waves progress trough the main flow. In turn, boundaries laid across portions of the Great Lakes and Midwest will wave north and south across the region as rounds of convection work through. A more amplified shortwave will progress overhead during the second half of the week, followed by brief ridging Friday before a strong, late- season trough digs across the Great Lakes this weekend. Forecast Details: Primary forecast concern in the short term is expected widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms tonight and their impact on ongoing flooding across much of northern Michigan. Current confidence based on latest high-res guidance and radar trends is that storms current firing across portions of Wisconsin will mature and work across the lake south of our area, working to limit higher rainfall potential to a degree across portions of our area. This is due to limited transport/support for an additional line of storms that is expected to form across southern Minnesota and track across the lake into northern Michigan later this evening and tonight. While this will provide our widespread rain/storm chances, expectation is that many areas will be limited to around 0.5-1" of additional rainfall as opposed to much higher amounts with a stronger line of storms working across our area. The exception will potentially be areas south of M-72, and especially south of M-55. Our far southern counties have the best chance of seeing rainfall amounts in excess of 1"+ with the potential for localized amounts of 2"+ should strong storms track across that area. Regardless of amounts, additional rainfall tonight will exacerbate ongoing flooding across the area -- the magnitude/widespread nature of which is impressive for the Northwoods. Specifically, the Au Sable River near Red Oak and the Manistee River near Sherman are forecast to go into major flood stage shortly this afternoon/evening. A few strong storms, especially across far southwest portions of the CWA, will be possible later this evening and tonight. The primary hazards with any strong storms will be damaging winds, large hail, and low chances for a tornado. Additional severe storms will be possible Tuesday evening into Tuesday night with similar hazards possible. Looking ahead, additional rain chances and mild temperatures will continue through the end of the week into this weekend. The aforementioned strong trough will likely tank temperatures late this weekend back down into the 30s and 40s for highs on Sunday with overnight lows in the 20s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 148 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 General trends point towards bettering conditions (MVFR to VFR) across terminals this evening ahead of an additional wave of showers and thunderstorms expected to pass through tonight into Tuesday. Winds decrease through the day becoming light and variable around 00z, then increase once again as showers and thunderstorms track through with gusts up to 15 knots possible (higher within any stronger storms). Conditions will deteriorate through the night with melting snow creating areas of BR and FG and showers dropping ceilings and visibilities as well. Thinking it will be similar to what we saw the previous evening with variable MVFR to LIFR condtions possible. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for MIZ016>018-020>036- 041-042-086>088-095-096-099. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DJC AVIATION...NSC