248 FXUS65 KLKN 132107 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 207 PM PDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Strong cold front moves in from the northwest Wednesday night. Gusty winds and snowfall will produce minor travel impacts, primarily across northern Nevada. * Generally fair weather in place Friday thru Sunday * Next weather system moves in during the Monday timeframe && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Sunday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Fairer weather in place tonight and Tuesday as the forecast area resides in between weather producers. Afternoon instability type showers expecgted over the high terrain of Elko and White Pine Counties Tuesday aftenoon with westerly breezes present across northern Nevada, gusts around 25 mph. Overnight low temperatures will be in the 20s tongiht with upper teens in the typical cold spots. Daytime highs Tuesday reside in the low 50s to low 60s. Increasing west-southwesterly winds Wdnesday as the upper level trof and addendent surface cold front approach from the northwest. Front begins to move in to he forecast area Wednedayu night, exiting to the southeast Thursday night. A band of light to moderate snow will be embedded along the front as it travereses the forecast area. Greatest snowfall amounts look to be situated over northern Elko County, west of US-93. 3 to 6 inches are currently forecast. A skiff to 3 inches are generally expected elswhere. Dry weather expected Friday with northwesterly breezes present as a progressive upper level ridge begins to move into the western U.S. Generally fair weather defined by warming temperatures and afternoon breezes will be present thru the weekend. Numerical model solutions depict a deep upper level trof and cold front to move into the forecast area Monday. This looks to bring additional rain and snowin the region along with gusty southwest winds. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High forecast confidence thru this weekend with moderate confidence pertaining to another frontal passage next week Monday. Minimal deviation form the NBM. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions expected thru the next 24 hours, thru the afternoon Tuesday. Main concern will be westerly afternoon breezes across northern terminals KWMC, KBAM, KEKO, and KENV. Gusts look to be around 20KT. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...92 AVIATION...92  191 FXUS63 KJKL 132107 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 507 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Unseasonably warm conditions are expected for much of the next week. - The warmest days are forecast to be Tuesday through Saturday. New daily record high temperatures are possible, if not likely, on the warmest days. - Scattered light rain showers are possible through early this evening, with little in the way of measurable rainfall. - Shower chances and small thunderstorm chances return late tonight and linger into Tuesday. Additional showers/storms are possible Thursday and Thursday night and again into the weekend. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 430 PM EDT MON APR 13 2026 Late this afternoon, an upper level ridge was centered in the eastern Gulf and extended across parts of Central America. An upper level low was centered in the Hudson Bay vicinity while an upper level trough extended across western portions of the Conus. This pattern is resulting in southwest flow aloft across eastern KY and the OH Valley region. At the surface, a ridge of high pressure was centered in parts of the Atlantic and extended into the Southeast to Southern Appalachians. Showers were moving across southern portions of the area at this time as well as over Elliott County. Rainfall has ranged from a few sprinkles or a traces in southern portions of the area to as much as third of an inch or so north of the Mountain Parkway. Temperatures as if 4 PM were mainly in the 70s with a few 60s where some of the heavier showers were occurring. Southwest to west southwest flow should dominate through the short term period as upper level ridging remains centered in the eastern Gulf into parts of the southeast and the current western Conus trough moves into the High Plains and nears the Central Conus. This evening and tonight, as the disturbance that is aiding the shower activity across the region moves east of the area this evening, shower chances will diminish and low and mid level clouds should thin at least for a few hours in the evening to the overnight per model time height sections. This should allow for valleys to decouple as the clouds thin and a moderate magnitude ridge/valley split. Lower 50s should occur in the normally colder valleys while ridges settle near 60s. If there is sufficient clearing where some of the heavier rain fell, some fog could form, but confidence was not high enough to include at this point given the recent dryness. Another disturbance in southwest flow between the upper ridge centered over the eastern Gulf to portions of the southeast and an upper trough that moves across portions of the western Conus should approach late tonight and cross the area on Tuesday. In advance of it, an uptick in the LLJ should occur late tonight into early on Tuesday. This could result in shower activity toward dawn, especially in the northwest, though recent CAM runs and have minimal activity late tonight and on Tuesday for that matter. The past two GFS runs have more in the way of activity for that matter while the ECMWF also is more scant with activity. The neutral height tendencies if not slight rises on Tuesday support the idea of minimal activity. For now isolated to scattered pops were carried for Tuesday. With less shower activity and southwest flow leading to warm air advection, temperatures should warm compared to today with widespread highs in the 80 anticipated. Ridging dominates for Tuesday night withe less potential for low and mid level clouds. This should support an even wider ridge valley split of low to mid 50s eastern/southeastern valleys to low to mid 60s on ridgetops and more open terrain locations. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 507 PM EDT MON APR 13 2026 An amplified long wave pattern continues through early next week. A strong and persistent ridge will remain planted from central Mexico to Florida through early this weekend. This feature will then pivot more southeast by early next week, as an onslaught of eastern Pacific energy throughout this week finally dislodges it. Model agreement is decent early on, but then becomes less, with greater differences showing up by this weekend and into early next week. Eastern Kentucky will continue to find itself under the influence of the strong ridging to our southeast through Saturday. Well above normal temperatures, nearing record status at times, will remain in place. Highs each day will average in the mid to upper 80s, with a few low 90s possible, especially Wednesday and Friday/Saturday. Lows will average in the 50s and 60s each night. The next decent chance of rain will move in Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, as a well-defined short wave trough tracks east from the middle Mississippi Valley through the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. PoPs will peak in the 40-60% range. Unfortunately, QPF continues to look lean, with most locations likely seeing a tenth of an inch or less, although any thunderstorms could locally overachieve. A much deeper trough will move from the Plains to the eastern CONUS this weekend into early next week, with a surface cold front finally making it across the Commonwealth. QPF could be more substantial and beneficial with this system; however, will await further model trends before getting too optimistic. PoPs peak in the 50-60% range Saturday night, with some chances extending into Sunday, depending on the timing. This cold front will also bring an end to the heatwave, with highs retreating to mainly the 60s for both Sunday and Monday. Some frost potential may follow for Sunday night and perhaps Monday night in the valleys, depending on model trends. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT MON APR 13 2026 VFR prevailed at TAF issuance time. Showers were moving across the region, though these were not resulting in reductions below VFR. Some gusts from the southwest of 20KT were occurring, with a few briefly stronger gusts on the leading edge of the shower activity. Showers should diminish from west to east/northwest to southeast during the first 6 hours of the period. Southwest winds will average between 6 and 13KT to begin the period, though these should diminish toward with the loss of daytime heating. Winds will increase aloft as a disturbance approaches after about 04Z which will result in a marginal LLWS threat between about 06Z and 12Z. Some shower or thunderstorm activity may affect locations near and north of I-64 including KIOB and KSYM prior to 12Z as the disturbance approaches. This activity should spread southeast to end the period and could bring brief sub VFR reductions. Southwest winds at 5 to 15KT with gusts to around 20KT should return to end the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...JKL AVIATION...JP  911 FXUS65 KBOU 132109 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 309 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Critical fire weather conditions again today over the southern portions of the forecast area and the plains near the Wyoming border. Critical fire weather conditions to continue Tuesday, though will be limited to Lincoln County. - Next weather system to bring cooler temperatures and a decent chance of precipitation to the forecast area Tuesday into early Wednesday. A few inches of snow for the higher mountains with slick travel possible over the higher passes mainly Tuesday night. - Another storm system is possible for the forecast area Thursday night into Saturday. - Elevated to critical fire weather conditions possible each afternoon through the week. && .DISCUSSION /Through Monday/... Issued at 101 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Current water vapor imagery shows our next weather system is slowly progressing eastward into the Great Basin this afternoon in the form of an upper-level trough. Meanwhile, above normal temperatures and dry conditions are in place across the forecast area, with breezy surface winds bringing elevated to critical fire weather conditions across much of the forecast area. Today's Red Flag Warning will remain in place through 8 PM this evening for areas along our northern and southern boundaries where relative humidity values ranging from the single digits to low teens are expected to coincide with southwest gusts around 30 mph through the early evening. Outside of the fire weather concerns, things are pretty nice across the forecast area, with afternoon temps expected to warm into the upper 60s to 70s across the plains, and 50s for the mountain valleys. Expect clouds to increase through the night tonight as increasing southwesterly flow is expected to bring Pacific moisture into the region. We could start to see some light rain showers over the higher elevations this afternoon, but chances for snow showers will increase late tonight as deeper moisture moves into the mountains and temperatures drop. The greatest QG lift still looks to be tomorrow afternoon and evening as the trough crosses over the forecast area and a cold front slides across the area. During this time, snowfall rates up to an inch an hour will be possible across the northern mountains that could bring some slick travel conditions, mainly across the high mountain passes where surface temperatures will be coldest. Looking like storm totals between 3 to 9 inches will be possible, mainly for elevations above 9,500 feet, with the northern mountains favored to see the higher amounts. Though elevations as low as 7,500 feet may end up with a few flakes when all is said and done. Across the lower elevations, scattered to numerous rain showers are expected, with even a few thunderstorms possible. The best precipitation chances are expected for the northern plains where the latest NBM shows a 50% chance of greater than .2" of precipitation possible from roughly Fort Morgan northward, dropping to 20-30% for probabilities of QPF over .4" for the same area. Much lighter QPF is expected for areas from roughly Adams County southward, where only a few hundredths are forecast. With the drier conditions expected over Lincoln County, the southern half has been put under a Red Flag Warning for Tuesday where gusty southwesterly winds to 40 mph coinciding with relative humidity values as low as 12% is expected between 11 AM and 8 PM. Showers are expected to diminish from west to east across the plains through Wednesday morning, giving way to warmer temps and dry conditions for Wednesday afternoon under brief upper-level ridging. Temperatures will warm back up for Wednesday afternoon, with 60s and 70s forecast across the plains and 40s and 50s for the mountain valleys. By Thursday, southwesterly flow is expected to return and increase ahead of our next more potent weather system that will drop out of the Pacific Northwest through the day. Winds are expected to increase that will likely lead to elevated to critical fire weather conditions over much of the lower elevations Tuesday afternoon. Much cooler temperatures and another round of mountain snow is expected with this system, and ensembles are currently indicating the potential for even some light snowfall accumulations possible for our lower elevations on Friday. Details still need to be ironed out for specific track and strength of this system, but the latest NBM shows between a 40% to 80% chance for at least .1" of snowfall for our lower elevations on Friday evening (higher chances along the Wyoming border, lower chances southward), as a cold front cools temperatures down to below freezing. Beyond Friday, Saturday looks to remain cooler across the forecast area behind Friday's cold front, with afternoon highs remaining below normal for a change. Beyond this, looks like upper-level ridging will begin to build over the western CONUS and we will return to warmer and drier conditions across the forecast area. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday/... Issued at 1132 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 VFR to prevail through the TAF period. Wind forecast will be challenging through tonight and into Tuesday. Channels of gusty west winds to 25 knots are expected to the north and south of the Denver area. In between, wind eddies (circulations) will create periods of variable winds. Thus confidence will be low. On Tuesday, northeast winds will prevail during the morning hours, possibly turning east to northeast late morning and afternoon. A wind shift to the northwest is expected 20-21Z Tuesday as showers roll off the foothills. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 101 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Above normal temperatures and dry conditions are in place across the forecast area this afternoon, with breezy surface winds bringing elevated to critical fire weather conditions across much of the forecast area. Today's Red Flag Warning will remain in place through 8 PM this evening for areas along our northern and southern boundaries where relative humidity values ranging from the single digits to low teens are expected to coincide with southwest gusts around 30 mph through the early evening. While areas within the RFW are expected to have the most critical fire weather conditions, there will be patchy critical fire weather conditions at times outside of the warned areas. A weather system is expected to move across Colorado on Tuesday that will bring snow to the mountains and scattered to numerous showers to the lower elevations, with a few thunderstorms possible. A cold front is expected to slide across the forecast area, though with its timing expected not to reach the southern extent of the forecast area until the evening, critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop over southern Lincoln County by late morning with wind gusts between 35 to 40 mph and RH as low as 12% expected. Therefore, a Red Flag Warning has been issued from 11 AM to 8 PM for this area. While a brief reprieve from critical fire weather conditions is expected on Wednesday (dependent on how much precip we see Tuesday), things are expected to be warm, dry, and breezy again on Thursday that will likely lead to widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions developing across much of the lower elevations. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ214-216-238- 241-242-246-247. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Tuesday for COZ247. && $$ DISCUSSION...9 AVIATION...12 FIRE WEATHER...9  466 FXUS65 KLKN 132112 RRA AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 207 PM PDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Strong cold front moves in from the northwest Wednesday night. Gusty winds and snowfall will produce minor travel impacts, primarily across northern Nevada. * Generally fair weather in place Friday thru Sunday * Next weather system moves in during the Monday timeframe && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Sunday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Fairer weather in place tonight and Tuesday as the forecast area resides in between weather producers. Afternoon instability type showers expected over the high terrain of Elko and White Pine Counties Tuesday afternoon with westerly breezes present across northern Nevada, gusts around 25 mph. Overnight low temperatures will be in the 20s tonight with upper teens in the typical cold spots. Daytime highs Tuesday reside in the low 50s to low 60s. Increasing west-southwesterly winds Wednesday as the upper level trof and attendant surface cold front approach from the northwest. Front begins to move in to he forecast area Wednesday night, exiting to the southeast Thursday night. A band of light to moderate snow will be embedded along the front as it traverses the forecast area. Greatest snowfall amounts look to be situated over northern Elko County, west of US-93. 3 to 6 inches are currently forecast. A skiff to 3 inches are generally expected elsewhere. Dry weather expected Friday with northwesterly breezes present as a progressive upper level ridge begins to move into the western U.S. Generally fair weather defined by warming temperatures and afternoon breezes will be present thru the weekend. Numerical model solutions depict a deep upper level trof and cold front to move into the forecast area Monday. This looks to bring additional rain and snow in the region along with gusty southwest winds. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High forecast confidence thru this weekend with moderate confidence pertaining to another frontal passage next week Monday. Minimal deviation form the NBM. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions expected thru the next 24 hours, thru the afternoon Tuesday. Main concern will be westerly afternoon breezes across northern terminals KWMC, KBAM, KEKO, and KENV. Gusts look to be around 20KT. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...92 AVIATION...92  451 FXUS61 KCAR 132123 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 523 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... - Multiple reports received that ice has cleared on the Aroostook River. There is a minor jam in place on the Allagash River by the bridge with substantial sheet ice remaining upstream. That is now the only known river ice remaining at this time on northern Maine rivers. Updated the key message 1 discussion to reflect the latest information on river ice. - Update to lower forecast temperatures late this afternoon and evening. The morning run of the NBM is 5 to 15 degrees too warm compared to current observations. - Updates to aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Above normal temperatures through the end of the week combined with some rainfall will result in river ice continuing to break up, melt, and clear out on the northern rivers. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Above normal temperatures through the end of the week combined with some rainfall will result in river ice continuing to break up, melt, and clear out on the northern rivers. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Per the previous discussion: High temperatures across the north are expected to be in the low 50s through mid-week and in the upper 50s to near 60 late this week. This will result in river ice across the north continuing to melt and break up. So far there has been no ice jam flooding reported and the ice-out has been gentle. However, some minor ice jamming is reported on the Allagash River. Additional rainfall across the north of around a quarter inch Tuesday night will add to the snow and ice melt, contributing to additional rises on the rivers. Significant flooding is currently not anticipated at this time. However, given that the ice is still moving and breaking up on the Allagash River, we will have to continue to monitor the potential for some ice jams and continued fluctuation of water levels over the Saint John basin. && .AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... This evening and tonight...MVFR/IFR with -RA, improving to VFR at BGR and BHB and MVFR at northern terminals. LLWS ends from NW to SE through 6z. S winds 5 to 10 kt this evening, shifting NW. Tuesday...MVFR at northern terminals early, otherwise VFR. NW wind 5 to 10 kt in the morning, becoming light and variable. Tuesday night...MVFR or lower with -RA. Light and variable winds. Wednesday...MVFR dropping to IFR south. IFR north, improving to MVFR late. SE to E wind around 5 kt. Wednesday night...MVFR to VFR north. IFR TO MVFR south. N wind around 5 kt. Thursday...MVFR becoming IFR south. VFR becoming MVFR then IFR north. SE wind 5 to 10 kt. Thursday night...IFR, becoming MVFR late. Light and variable wind. Friday-Saturday...VFR. NW wind around 5 kt. && .MARINE... Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through late tonight for the intra coastal zone and through early Tuesday morning for the outermost waters. Winds/seas are expected to remain below SCA levels Tuesday night. Wind and seas will remain below SCA from mid week this week through the coming weekend. Moist air over the colder waters may result in some fog and mist over the waters and along the coast at times, especially Wednesday and again on Friday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ050-051. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ052. && $$ DISCUSSION...TWD/ARL AVIATION...TWD/ARL/MWS  573 FXUS63 KFGF 132124 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 424 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Brief heavy snow may impact the Tuesday morning commute in Devils Lake basin and northern Red River Valley. - There is a 30% chance for advisory level winter impacts from accumulating snow and gusty winds Friday to Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 324 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will remain in place over much of the West to Northern Plains this week. This will house numerous shortwave troughs moving through the exit region of the broader upper trough, with this upper trough's axis finally shifting eastward through the central CONUS late this week. This synoptic pattern will provide intervals of precipitation today and Tuesday, as well as Friday to Saturday. This includes potential for snow and associated winter impacts both Tuesday and later this week. More details on this below. With the upper trough passage through our area around Friday to Saturday increasing chances for precipitation, there is a scenario where increasing instability works its way into Minnesota and/or eastern Dakotas to allow for thunderstorms. At this time, it remains unclear if this will occur as there is much uncertainty in numerous preceding shortwave trough passages through the Plains and Midwest that will dictate this buoyant air mass's location. The upper troughing will be oriented in such a way that above average temperatures will overspread our portion of the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest, with highs in the 60s and 70s currently forecast Wednesday and Thursday. With the incoming upper trough passage late this week, a cooler, more seasonable air mass will envelope Northern Plains into Upper Midwest. ...Potential winter impacts Tuesday morning... There is high confidence in an area of precipitation moving generally southwest to northeast across our area north of I-94 corridor. A large subset of high resolution guidance reveals temperatures in northeast ND into far northwest MN will be close enough to freezing to allow some of this precipitation to fall as snow. In fact, relatively strong ascent with rich moisture feeding into the ascent will allow for heavy snow rates between 1-2 inches per hour. Given the relatively fast forward movement of this precipitation, the time for heavy snow rates to reside over any particular location in these areas will be brief (i.e. 1-3 hours at any location). While majority of high resolution guidance depicts this scenario, there are still differences in where exactly this occurs within these region as the areas potentially impacted by snow will likely be quite narrow. Additionally, there is anticipation of relatively warm surface temperatures leading to melting on contact. Although, these higher snow rates will likely overcome warm surfaces to allow for at least some accumulation on non-grassy surfaces. Anywhere from 1-5 inches is liable to fall, with more than 3 inches more likely to be on grassy surfaces. Heavy snow rates will greatly reduce visibility, and may lead to slippery roads from a slushy accumulation. And with this occuring during the morning commute, we've amplified messaging of this potential via graphical messaging as well as issuing a Special Weather Statement. ...Late week winter impact potential... Ensemble guidance continues to cluster toward a scenario that features heavy snow in one or two more consolidated systems' deformation zones. However, most guidance favors majority of this snow to remain in Canada. There is still a subset of guidance that brings snow into our area, mainly north of Highway 200. This includes snow accumulation up to 5 inches. Snow may also coincide with gusty winds to introduce impacts from blowing snow and reduced visibility into this scenario. Additionally, ensembles now reveal a potential scenario that brings a second wave of precipitation and snow through the region on Saturday. This widens the window of when winter impacts may occur from solely Friday to now Friday into Saturday. Ensemble guidance has also trended some what down on potential for warning level impacts from 6 or more inches of snow to be less than 10%. However, the chance for advisory level winter impacts remains at around 30%. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 324 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Aviation impacts mainly stem from low ceilings, including forecast ceilings into the LIFR to potentially VLIFR. Lingering low ceilings range from the MVFR to IFR categories this afternoon into evening. Additional periods for LIFR to VLIFR comes after 03Z this evening. Visibility reductions to 1SM is also in the forecast due to forecast drizzle/light rain. These ceilings may lingering through much of the evening and Tuesday morning before attempting to lift toward afternoon. As of now, there is no fog in the forecast, but may develop at sites like KBJI and KTVF between 03Z-15Z. Winds will remain on the lighter side under 15 kt throughout the TAF period. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CJ AVIATION...CJ  054 FXUS66 KPQR 132124 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 224 PM PDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Scattered light showers continue at times today. However, our focus remains on a stronger frontal system arriving Tuesday evening through early Thursday morning. This system will bring widespread precipitation to the region and a period of heavy Cascade snowfall. As a result have upgraded the Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Storm Warning from late Tuesday into early Thursday above 2500ft. It should be noted that there is around a 5% chance for wet, heavy snow to be observed along with some accumulation for elevations above 1000 ft during the times mentioned above. Looking beyond, while showers in the wake of the front decrease, cooler overnight temperatures quickly follow with increasing frost concerns. Then, looking towards the end of the week and into the weekend a warming and drying trend briefly returns. && .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday Night...As we move into the evening hours, a weak, transient ridge will continue to build over the area and will likely bring a stop to the majority of showers that have impacted the CWA. While most of the lower elevations will see a brief dry period, that cannot be said for elevated locations with the Coast Range, Cascades, and adjacent foothills as they could see lingering shower activity through the overnight hours. As Tuesday approaches, a rather significant pattern change is expected. Models are currently in excellent agreement that a robust low will dive out of the Gulf of Alaska and into the Pac NW. This system will bring about cooler air, widespread precipitation and some breezy conditions to our CWA. As the leading cold front of this system sweeps into the area, expect breezy southerly winds with gusts up to 25 mph inland and gusts up to 35 mph along the coast. By the late morning/early afternoon, widespread precipitation will be here along with cooler, 850 mb temperatures. Current model and ensemble guidance is showing 850 mb temperatures in the -4 to -5 C range, which will bring snow levels down towards 2000-3000 ft by late Tuesday/early Wednesday. 24 hour rainfall amounts during this period, generally range from 0.80 to 1.30 inches across the Willamette Valley and Portland metro, 1.00 to 2.25 inches along the coast and Coast Range, and 1.10 to 2.30 inches across the Cascades. However, for the latter region, especially at pass level, the precipitation will likely be falling as snow. Speaking of snow, have upgraded the Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Storm Warning. The incoming system looks to bring 12 to 20 inches of snowfall to the Cascades starting Tuesday afternoon through early Thursday morning, for elevations above 2500 ft. Current NBM probabilities show a 75-95% probability of 12 inches or greater snowfall over a 48 hour period (Tuesday afternoon - Thursday afternoon), a 40-60% probability of 20 inches or more for elevations above 4500 ft and a 20-30% chance for 25 inches or more for elevations above 5500 ft. The highest amounts in the high Cascades from Marion to Lane County. So, if you are planning on going over the Cascade Passes in the next few days, please keep an eye on road conditions as well as any informational posts made by local officials. In addition we are keeping an eye on the incoming system as there is a low chance (~5%) of some wet snow accumulations above 1000 ft during the same time period. If this were to occur, wet snow along with the increase in surface area on trees via the green up, could result in impacts occurring. Potential impacts could be down tree branches due to wet snow load and that could lead to power outages. What is more likely to occur (20-30% chance) is that people above 1000 ft in elevation could see visible snow fall (chunky rain) in the sky with no impacts. So, don't be surprised if late Tuesday/early Wednesday morning you observe snow in the air. Looking towards Wednesday and the post frontal environment, overall instability increases as the body of the upper level low treks southeast. The stratiform precipitation of Wednesday morning will become showery as Wednesday afternoon/evening approaches. Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) increases with models showing values of 200-500 j/kg, which is rather robust for our CWA. The main time period of focus is 11AM to 7PM on Wednesday when heating between shower bands may be maximized. Given this information, there is a 15-25% chance for thunderstorms across the majority of our CWA. As a reminder with any thunderstorms expected moderate to heavy rain, infrequent lightning, small hail/graupel, gusty and erratic winds. So, when thunder roars, go indoors or when you see a flash (of lightning), dash inside. /42 .LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday...By Thursday, the upper level low and associated front have left the CWA, but will leave the region cool and moist conditions. Thursday into Friday looks to have overnight lows in the mid 20s to mid 30s. This means that there is the potential for frost development or even freezing temperatures to impact the valley floor. Currently, the Portland/Vancouver Metro there is a 10-40% chance of overnight lows at or below 36 degrees F. From the Portland/Vancouver Metro areas southward towards Salem and Eugene, OR, expect a 45-85% chance of overnight lows at or below 36 degrees F. For locations north of Vancouver, expect a 50-75% chance of overnight lows at or below 36 degrees F. Additionally, there is a 80-95% chance of at least freezing temperatures in the Upper Hood River Valley for Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Similar conditions may develop again Thursday night into Friday morning, though with slightly lower probabilities (only 10-30% lower). While frost potential starts for most areas Thursday morning, the Upper Hood River Valley will have frost potential sooner and longer, with a 45-85% chance of frost Wednesday morning, 90-99% Thursday and Friday morning, and 65-95% Saturday morning. Chances of frost plummet to 10-35% by Sunday morning for the Upper Hood River Valley. Looking towards the weekend, temperatures gradually warm, reducing frost concerns. Ensembles show a shortwave ridge of high pressure moving quickly overhead on Saturday, but being quickly followed by another low pressure system on Sunday originating from the Gulf of Alaska. Now, beyond Sunday and into the start of next week, WPC Cluster Guidance is favoring this low holding just off the OR/WA coast or moving over the inland Pac NW, which means that cooler and moister conditions are favored for the start of next week. /42 && .AVIATION...Northwest flow aloft with diminishing showers today. Predominately VFR conditions expected through tonight, with only a 10-20% chance of MVFR occurring with passing showers through this evening. Westerly surface winds around 10 kt or less continue today. A cold front will approach the region from the northwest Tuesday morning, bringing increasing chances for rain and lower ceilings to the area on Tuesday. Chances for MVFR conditions begin to increase again after 12z Tue at the coast while winds are expected to become more southerly ahead of the front. KPDX AND APPROACHES...Predominately VFR conditions expected through at least 18z Tuesday. Showers will continue to diminish this afternoon. Northwest winds around 4-6 kt expected to become southerly by 08z Tuesday, with south winds increasing to around 10-15 kt later Tue morning. /DH && .MARINE...Relatively calm conditions are expected through this evening as westerly winds persist at around 10 kt or less with seas of around 5 to 7 ft. Southwesterly winds begin to increase later tonight into Tuesday as a strong cold front approaches the waters. Expect southwest winds to gust up to 30 kt across all coastal waters on Tuesday as the front slowly moves south. Winds are expected to be strongest Tuesday afternoon into early Tue evening. During this time, there will be around a 3-6 hour period when gusts could (50% chance) exceed 34 kt, producing marginal Gale Force wind gusts. Have maintained the strongly worded Small Craft Advisory beginning early Tue morning for the northern waters and extending across all waters, including the Columbia River Bar, Tue morning through Tue night. The increased wind waves are expected to build seas to around 10 to 12 ft with a period of around 8-10 seconds. Seas remain steep and choppy through Tue night as well. Winds are expected to abruptly shift to the northwest behind the frontal passage later Tuesday through Tuesday night as the cold front moves south across the coastal waters. Breezy northwest winds continue through Wednesday with gusts increasing back up to 20-25 kt as an area of low pressure drops along the Canadian coast toward the Puget Sound. This will also bring a 15-25% chance of thunderstorms over the waters through Wed evening. Seas are expected to persist at around around 8 to 10 ft on Wednesday, building slightly to around 9 to 11 ft Wed night as a northwest swell moves through the waters. Will likely need to extend the Small Craft Advisory into Thu morning. High pressure then builds over the waters later this week as northerly winds return and seas gradually subside to around 4 to 6 ft Friday into Saturday. There is potential for another weather system to impact the waters later this weekend. /DH && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM Tuesday to 5 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ126>128. WA...Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM Tuesday to 5 AM PDT Thursday for WAZ211. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Tuesday to 5 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ210-252-253-272-273. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Tuesday to 5 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ251-271. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland  764 FXUS63 KDDC 132133 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 433 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...Updated Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread critical fire weather conditions today and Tuesday ahead of the first storm system. All 27 counties of NWS DDC area will remain in Red Flag Warning today and Fire Weather Watch (to be upgraded to Red Flag Warning) Tuesday. - Additional critical fire weather concerns ahead of the second late week storm system, especially west of Highway 283 where lowest relative humidity will remain. - Severe weather risk across eastern half of NWS Dodge City area Friday ahead of the second, larger and stronger storm system. SPC 15% Probabilistic Outlook for severe storms Friday east of a Coldwater to Larned line. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 104 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Very warm and dry weather will continue out ahead of a large upper level trough centered over California and Nevada late this morning. Broad southwesterly flow through the depth of the troposphere will become most pronounced Tuesday afternoon when the center of the mid level trough axis moves across Colorado, inducing a lower tropospheric low across northwestern Kansas. This will keep the strongest height gradient 850mb through 700mb across much of Kansas into Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Deep mixing through 3km AGL by mid to late afternoon will support fairly frequent southwest wind gusts 35 to 40 knots, so we have continued to favor 75th percentile winds off the NBM for much of our southwest Kansas region. The same goes for afternoon temperatures, favoring 75th percentile given continued very dry condition, resulting in highs Tuesday upper 80s to around 90F across the eastern half of the DDC CWA. On Wednesday, we will see a break in strong winds in between storm systems, but the next incoming storm system will be larger in scope and a bit stronger, so we will begin seeing surface response to the next storm as early as midday Thursday as the leeside trough redevelop and south winds increase again. As the 850mb and 700mb height gradient increases, deep southwesterly winds will increase, and we will see these mix down to the surface in stronger gusts again late in the afternoon, especially across far southwest Kansas. The downslope southwesterlies will be a warm wind, so highs well into the mid 80s are forecast with even some upper 80s/near 90 in the typically hot locations such as the Red Hills. Through all this time today through Thursday, the surface dryline will remain east across south central Kansas into western Oklahoma, but given just enough uncertainty in county-level detail of dryline position, we will keep some small POPs across the Red Hills region for thunderstorms late Tuesday/Tuesday Night until the first storm system fully clears our region. The dryline will push east and eventually become quite diffuse by Thursday as the MSLP pattern undergoes a readjustment in between storms. The dryline is then expected to reform farther west on Friday as the next larger storm takes shape over the Rockies. The reshaped dryline will sharpen up as convergence increases due to deepening surface low by Friday afternoon, setting the stage for a fairly classic looking severe weather episode across the Central Plains, including eastern portions of the DDC CWA. The latest SPC Convective Outlook for Friday includes a 15% outlook for our eastern areas, east of roughly Coldwater to Larned line, for all severe weather risks including possibility of tornadoes. After Friday evening severe weather risk shifts east of southwest and south central Kansas, a strong cold front will sweep south some time Friday Night, ushering in much cooler air. A stable/quiet weekend will follow, albeit windy and chilly Saturday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 433 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 VFR/SKC will continue through this TAF period, with variable amounts of cirrus. Strong southwest winds, gusting 30-35 kts as of 2130z, will diminish significantly at sunset. Southwest winds will remain elevated at 10-15 kts through 12z Tue. After 15z Tue, strong southwest winds will return to all airports, averaging near 25 kts, with gusts to near 35 kts. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090. Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ Tuesday for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090. && $$ DISCUSSION...Umscheid AVIATION...Turner  302 FXAK69 PAFG 132141 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 141 PM AKDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Heavy snowfall in the Upper Tanana Valley and Eastern Alaska Range slowly diminishes through Monday night. Some scattered showers will remain through Tuesday morning. Arctic air moves south Monday through Tuesday cooling temperatures across the region, especially so across the North Slope. Snow with periods of mixed rain/snow are expected to return to the West Coast Tuesday and last through the end of the week. Light accumulations are expected with the most consistent precipitation being from the Seward Peninsula south. Coastal winds shift from north-northwest to east-northeast Tuesday and strengthen along the Western Arctic Coast. Another, less certain storm enters the Bering Sea this upcoming weekend bringing additional snow and rain to the area. && .KEY WEATHER MESSAGES... Central and Eastern Interior... - Rain/Snow mix is expected to continue across the Eastern Alaska Range and Upper Tanana Valley through Monday with lighter accumulations lingering into early Tuesday. Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect. Most of the heaviest snow has already fallen. - Light snowfall is expected across the Fortymile Country and White Mountains through Monday evening. North to northeasterly wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph could lead to areas of blowing snow, especially near Eagle Summit. Conditions are expected to improve by Tuesday. - Northerly winds gust up to 40 mph through the Alaska Range Passes Monday. Northwesterly wind gusts up to 30 mph are possible through the Upper Tanana Valley. There may be areas of reduced visibility when paired with falling snow. Near whiteout conditions are locally possible where the strongest gusts and heaviest snow overlap. Winds weaken overnight Monday. - Cooler temperatures remain through the end of the week with highs in the 30s and lows in the 20s for most areas. West Coast and Western Interior... - Breezy north to northwest winds 15 to 25 mph continue along the West Coast. Winds shift more northeasterly Tuesday. - Temperatures cool throughout the week with highs in the 20s and overnight lows in the teens to single digits above zero. - Another round of precipitation approaches the West Coast Tuesday bringing periods of light rain, snow, and mixed precipitation to portions of the West Coast and Western Interior Tuesday through the end of the week. Precipitation will be most consistent for areas south of the Bering Strait along the West Coast and south of Huslia across the Western Interior. North Slope and Brooks Range.. - Scattered snow showers linger across the Brooks Range into next week, especially along southern facing slopes. Travel through Anaktuvuk Pass or Atigun Pass may be slightly impacted by light snowfall and breezy northerly winds. - Temperatures rapidly cool Today and Tuesday and then remain cool through the end of the week. Highs fall to the single digits above zero while overnight lows reach as cold as the teens below zero. - Periods of gusty winds return to the northwest Arctic Coast Tuesday through the end of the week. Gusts as high as 45 mph possible between Point Hope and Point Lay. Periods of blowing snow may reduce visibility and make travel difficult. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued. && .FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION... For Monday through Thursday. At the start of the forecast period monday, a pair of surface lows settled over the northern Gulf of Alaska and just across the Canadian Border east of the Upper Tanana Valley continue to push moisture into Southeastern Alaska. The heaviest period of precipitation already passed with more limited accumulations expected to continue through Monday evening for much of the area, and through Tuesday morning for the Alaska Range. Much of the precipitation in the heaviest areas of the Upper Tanana Valley and Eastern Alaska Range has fallen as snow and snow is expected to remain the dominant P-Type for these areas. Farther west, nearer the Middle Tanana Valley, the precipitation has fallen as a light mix of rain and snow, but warmer temperatures have significantly limited accumulations in the warmer valleys. Similar conditions are expected to continue there through the end of the day Monday. The twin lows weaken and shift east overnight Monday into Tuesday allowing showers to slowly dissipate across the Southeastern Interior. A weak ridge pushes east into the Gulf of Alaska while a shortwave low rotating around a large 483 decameter upper level low in northern Canada pulls very cold air south to the North Slope Tuesday. The next low (~1000 millibars) that rotates through the pattern stalls on the western side of the ridge in the Bering Sea Tuesday and instead pushes a front towards the West Coast from the south that also stalls against the Arctic air that settles over the North Slope. This stalled front quickly occludes and then remains in place late Tuesday through Thursday providing consistent light snow which may shift to rain during the warmer afternoons for the West Coast and Western Interior, primarily from the Seward Peninsula south. Showers occasionally push farther east into the Central Interior. The combination of the Arctic air over the North Slope, the ridging over the Gulf of Alaska, and the occluded front will keep the overall weather pattern quite stagnant with cooler, wetter conditions continuing across the West Coast and Interior and cold conditions remaining across the North Slope through the end of the week. && .EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7... For late Thursday through next Monday. At the start of the extended forecast period, the relatively stagnant pattern keeping areas north of the Brooks Range cold and areas south of the Brooks range cool and damp begins to shift. Another weak ridge pushes the low in the Bering Sea east Thursday night into Friday causing more widespread snow and rain across most of the West Coast and Interior through Saturday. Immediately following the weak ridging is yet another low that moves into the Bering Sea and will continue to bring additional moisture into the region. This low is considerably stronger than the previous one, but its exact location and strength remain less certain. This system takes over the pattern late Saturday and will remain active through early next week. The impacts of this system will largely depend on its northern extent, which itself will depend on how well the warmer, more moist air can displace the colder, Arctic air that will have settled over the northernmost reaches of Alaska. Should this low reach further north in the Bering Sea, then precipitation should be expected across most of the West Coast and Interior. Should this low remain further south, then impacts will be primarily limited to the West Coast from the Seward Peninsula south. Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ801. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ849. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ848-850. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ837. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ834-847. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ836. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-807. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811-817-857. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812-858. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ851. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ854-856. && $$ Stokes  366 FXUS65 KTWC 132156 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 256 PM MST Mon Apr 13 2026 .SYNOPSIS...High temperatures will be below normal through Wednesday. A weather system passing through today will bring breezy winds and chance for rain and a thunderstorm or two from Tucson eastward. After Wednesday temperatures are expected to be around normal with the potential for another round of breezy winds Thursday and Friday. && .DISCUSSION...Gusty day across southeast Arizona with some of the gradient gusts being enhanced by rain showers bringing winds aloft down to the surface. Some peak wind gusts since midnight have been 70 mph at/near Patagonia, 62 mph at Pioneer Airfield west of Ft. Huachuca, 58 mph in the Chiricahua Mtns and 50 mph near San Simon along I-10. Dust hasn't been too much of a problem so far but went ahead anyway to issue a Blowing Dust Advisory for I-10 east of Willcox to the state line which lines up nicely with what El Paso hoisted for their portions of I-10 in Hidalgo county. No fire weather issues with RH values mostly in the 20s. The wind and showers are associated with an upper level trof to our northwest which will pass by to our north over the next 24 hours. Winds easing after sunset with any showers limited to areas NE of Tucson into early Tuesday. Tuesday: Cooler and not as windy with highs mostly 5 to 10 degrees BELOW normal. Wednesday: Temperatures rebound with highs 4 to 9 degrees warmer than Tuesday. Thursday: The next Pacific trof will bring another round of strong southwest winds to the area along with elevated fire weather conditions. Some uncertainty on how strong the winds will be and how much area will potentially be near red flag conditions. Went ahead and used 75th and 90th percentile NBM wind grids to show higher winds versus straight NBM. These winds will be fine tuned over the next 24 hours. Days 4 thru 7 (Friday April 17 to Monday April 20) Less windy Friday than Thursday with typical afternoon gustiness this weekend into Monday. Dry with daily high temperatures showing a gradual warmup through Monday where highs will run up to 5 degrees above normal by Sunday and Monday. The forecast provided by the Weather Prediction Center for this period, using NBM as the initialization, looks good. 8-14 day outlook (April 21-27) Temperature: Near normal. Precipitation: Near normal. & .AVIATION...Valid through 15/00z. SCT-BKN 8-12k ft AGL BKN above 15kt ft AGL thru 14/15z then becoming SKC from W to E thru the end of valid period. Isold -SHRA, SLGT CHC -TSRA possible from Tucson east thru 14/04Z. SFC winds SWLY 12-22 kts with gusts 25-40 kts thru 14/05z. Winds begin to diminish after 14/06Z becoming SLY 8-12 kts. SFC winds after 14/18z WLY 10-20 kts with higher gusts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...A Pacific weather system will bring strong southwest winds into this evening with speeds 15-25 mph and gusts 30 to 50 mph. Cooler temperatures and increased moisture today has kept RH values above critical thresholds. Showers with an embedded thunderstorm or two will be possible from Tucson east into this evening. Thereafter, winds generally 15 mph or less through the middle of next week. Another Pacific system will likely move through later this week with strong gusty winds again possible Thursday and Friday. Some uncertainty on the potential for critical fire weather conditions on Thursday. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook, X, YouTube, and at weather.gov/Tucson