733 FXUS65 KVEF 132200 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 300 PM PDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Scattered showers will develop this afternoon and evening, with brief heavy rain, small graupel, and thunder possible with heaviest showers. * Calmer conditions resume Tuesday and Wednesday before gusty winds and cooler temperatures return late in the week. && .DISCUSSION...through early next week. Closed 500mb low with a cold core of -25C mid-level temps will move across the region this afternoon and evening, with increasing showers and a few isolated thunderstorms expected. Early afternoon satellite imagery depicts broad cumulus fields across much of the forecast area, but limited vertical growth so far, however, as cooler air aloft moves in in the coming hours, we expect a quick increase in shower coverage. Given the cold temps aloft, some of the stronger showers could produce small graupel and some rumbles of thunder. Quieter conditions will resume Tuesday and Wednesday as a transient ridge of high pressure builds in with temperatures returning to near normal. The break the weather will be brief however as another shortwave drops south out of the PacNW and into the Great Basin Thursday. This feature will stir up the regional winds by Thursday afternoon and drag a sharp cold front through the area Thursday evening into Friday morning. Cooler temperatures will follow for Friday along with gusty north winds, especially along the Colorado River Valley. High pressure will rebuild over the weekend with warming temps and dry weather expected. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Southwesterly gusts to 20-25kt will continue through late evening before diminishing overnight. Showers developing over higher terrain will increase in coverage through this evening, with terrain obscuration expected. While most activity will remain anchored to the terrain, erratic gusty winds cannot be ruled out in the Valley. Additionally, while there is a 25% chance of showers impacting the terminal, there is also a low chance of thunder, so an occasional lightning strike will be possible through mid evening. In the vicinity of showers, SCT-BKN ceilings around 6- 8kft can be expected, with showers expected to end late evening. Ceilings improve to around 10-12kft thereafter with light winds expected late tonight onward. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Showers with embedded isolated thunderstorms will continue moving eastward across the area through this evening, with the greatest concentration of activity across the southern Great Basin and the higher terrain of southern Nevada and Inyo County. Ceilings around 6-8kft can be expected with this activity, along with erratic gusty winds and the occasional lightning strike, with about a 20-30% chance of occurrence at a given terminal. Southwesterly winds with gusts to 25KT are expected across the Las Vegas Valley and the Lower Colorado River Valley through this evening, trending more westerly across the western Mojave, and northwesterly through the Owens Valley. Areawide, gusts diminish overnight with winds becoming light by daybreak with bands of mid-level clouds around 10kft streaming over the area. Light diurnal/variable winds are expected Tuesday. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Outler AVIATION...Phillipson For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter  961 FXUS62 KMHX 132218 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 618 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes to the forecast with this update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Above to well above normal temperatures will prevail through the entire week with the potential for record breaking temperatures Tuesday through Saturday. 2) Worsening drought and fire weather conditions anticipated over much of the upcoming week, with the next meaningful chance of rain not until Sunday && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Persistent ridging aloft combined with a warm, southwest flow pattern and warm to anomalously warm low-level thicknesses is expected to support above to well above normal temperatures for the entire week. Some locations may reach, or exceed, record highs (please see the CLIMATE section below for additional information). Based on the latest guidance, the warmest days are expected to be Wednesday, Thursday, and Saturday. On those days, highs are expected to top out in the 90s inland, and 70s to near 80 along the coast. For reference, mid-April highs typically average out to be in the upper 60s along the coast and mid 70s inland. Based on the latest forecast, inland highs should solidly reach 10-20 degrees above normal. The forecast is currently higher than MOS guidance, as we are operating under the belief that an anomalous event like this (EFI values approaching 1.00 and SoT near 1) isn't properly represented by MOS guidance. The forecast is also currently higher than the deterministic NBM, as the raw NBM MaxTs are running at the 10-25 percentile. Summertime warmth with spring humidity means it won't feel as hot as it could with summertime humidity. Even so, the heat risk is forecast to reach moderate impact levels this week. This means impacts will be most prevalent for those without adequate cooling or hydration. A break in the warmth looks to be on the horizon as a cold front is now forecast to move through the area on Sunday, with cooler air arriving early next week. KEY MESSAGE 2...Worsening drought conditions are likely through the foreseeable future with no rain in the forecast through Saturday. The forecast area remains in a Severe Drought (D2), with some pockets of Extreme Drought (D3) emerging over the northern NC coastal plain. Precipitation deficits over the last 60 days range from 3-6 inches, which will only increase in the upcoming rain-free week. Growing vegetation and leaf out will only increase the strain on ground water in the coming weeks. While the forecast currently has conditions not meeting criteria for fire danger statements, the very dry conditions will continue to bring an elevated threat for wildfires. It is also worth noting that breezy afternoon/evening winds will be paired with relative humidities in the 30-40% range. Again, this is above Fire Danger Statement criteria, but given the increased sensitivities, it is worth a mention. The NCFS continues a statewide burn ban until further notice. Late in the weekend, guidance is showing a strong signal for a cold front passage (Sunday into Monday). This front carries a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Pred VFR expected through the TAF period with high pressure in place. The NBM probs for fog or stratus late tonight into Tuesday morning remain low, around 10 percent or less. However, if the winds do decouple, cannot rule out shallow fog development late tonight, similar to last night. SW winds will prevail with gusts around 15-20 kt late morning and afternoon hours. Outlook: Pred VFR conditions expected through the period with a more summertime pattern persisting through the week. Stronger winds likely in the coming days with tightening thermal gradient, most likely felt in the afternoons and evenings. && .MARINE... Latest obs show SW winds 10-20 kt and seas 2-4 ft. A regime more typical of summer is expected across area waters this week. Within this flow, there will be a diurnal max in winds each afternoon and evening thanks to a strengthening thermal gradient. During this time, occasional gusts to 25kt will be possible, especially for waters near NOBX. A short fused small craft advisory has been issued until 3Z Tue for the coastal waters north of Oregon Inlet and the Croatan/Roanoke Sounds as obs this afternoon have started gusting to the low/mid 20 knot range, with further intensification expected into the evening. A similar scenario is possible each day this week, with brief small craft conditions in the vicinity of NOBX. Seas of 3-5 ft will be common through much of the upcoming week for the ENC coastal waters. Outlook: The southwest flow pattern is expected to last into Saturday. On Sunday, a cold front is forecast to move through with a wind shift and the potential for scattered thunderstorms. && .CLIMATE... Record High temps for 4/14 (Tuesday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 89/1948 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 80/1994 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 93/1922 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 80/1996 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 99/1930 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 88/1977 (NCA ASOS) Record High temps for 4/15 (Wednesday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 94/1972 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 84/1922 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 96/1922 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 80/1964 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 92/1941 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 93/2006 (NCA ASOS) Record High temps for 4/16 (Thursday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 92/1972 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 78/1994 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 92/1972 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 82/2006 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 92/2006 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 91/1972 (NCA ASOS) Record High temps for 4/17 (Friday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 91/1976 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 83/2012 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 92/1972 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 82/1976 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 91/1972 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 91/2006 (NCA ASOS) && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ150- 231. && $$ DISCUSSION...RM/RJ AVIATION...CQD/SK MARINE...RM/RJ  901 FXUS65 KRIW 132221 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 421 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Windy conditions, with gusts between 25 and 45 mph, are expected through sunset tonight. Gusty winds combined with low humidity will result in elevated to critical fire weather conditions across central and southern Wyoming. - Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible (30-60%) through sunset today across western and northern Wyoming. A strong shower or thunderstorm could produce gusty 30 to 40 mph winds. - A cold weather system is forecast to bring widespread precipitation late Wednesday through Friday, with most locations seeing measurable snowfall by Friday. A hard freeze (28 degrees or below) is looking likely (80% + chances) across the area Thursday night and especially Friday night. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1243 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 18Z satellite water vapor imagery shows two upper level lows, one over southwest Montana and another over central California. Both lows will shift east over the next 24 hours and influence our weather at the surface. The Montana low will slowly make its way into northern Wyoming this afternoon and evening and provide support for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across western and northern Wyoming. Modest instability will be present this afternoon with CAPE values up to 500 J/kg and 25 to 30kts of effective bulk shear. These values, along with terrain influence and 30 to 40 degree dew point depressions are all indicators that a few stronger thunderstorms could produce gusty 30 to 40 mph outflow winds. As for the mountains, light snow is expected to fall with snow levels ranging from 6,300 to 6,500 feet. If snow levels happen to be lower than what is forecast, the western valleys could see a rain/mix with any shower to storm. Shower and thunderstorm chances will come to an end around sunrise this evening as instability wanes and the low moves overhead. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions remain in place across central and southern Wyoming due to gusty 25 to 45 mph winds and relative humidity values below 20%. The Red Flag Warning in effect for portions of Natrona County remains in effect until 8 PM this evening. On Tuesday, light precipitation chances have been maintained across southern and western Wyoming as the aforementioned central California low traverses into Colorado. Light snow can be expected across the mountains Tuesday afternoon with snow levels around 7,000 feet. Beyond Tuesday, all focus continues to be on the winter weather and hard freeze potential Wednesday night through Friday night. Confidence continues to increase in most locations seeing snow by Friday as model guidance has remained consistent from run to run. However, we have opted to not issue any headlines at this time given this system only begins to arrive late Wednesday night and there are still a few uncertainties in amounts and timing. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 327 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 It is often said that Wyoming can experience many different seasons in a week. This is especially so during the transition time, and especially during the Spring as the battle between warm air from the south and cold air to the north holding on for dear life. We currently have another in the series of shortwaves rotating around an upper level low now moving into California. It is bringing some showers, mainly to western Wyoming. And some of this is in the form of snow, including at the Jackson Hole airport, where 700 millibar temperatures falling to around minus 4 have dropped snow levels to around 6500 feet. The steadiest precipitation should be over shortly after sunrise, but the chance of showers will linger through the day. Otherwise, things looks somewhat similar to yesterday, with a scattering of showers across the area with a few thunderstorms thrown in. Once again, the best coverage will be in western Wyoming with areas East of the Divide dry most of the day. The chance for strong storms looks less through, with cooler temperatures and less instability. And we have another concern, fire weather. The approaching shortwave will bring gusty to strong wind to portions of the area, mainly in the southwestern Wind Corridor from east of Rock Springs through Natrona County. There is a brief period of 700 millibar wind rising to 50 knots around 9 am in this vicinity. Ensemble guidance also shows a greater than 1 out 2 chance of wind gusts past 50 mph as well. However, at this point, critical fire weather looks to be the greater impact. Temperatures are running cooler than on Sunday. However, with a greater than 1 in 2 chance of relative humidity falling below 15 percent for three hours, we have decided to go with a Red Flag Warning for Natrona County. Elsewhere, relative humidity does not look to reach critical levels. Elevated fire weather is certainly a possibility though. Tuesday still looks to be a driest day across the area. Reasoning is the same as yesterday with the upper level low passing south of the area over Colorado. Models have come into better agreement with keeping the best forcing and moisture south of the area. The chance of greater than a tenth of an inch or precipitation is less than 1 out of 4 except in far southern Sweetwater County and the higher elevations of the northwest. Most areas should have a decent day with somewhat above normal temperatures and much less wind. Attention then turns to the next, stronger system moving in for the end of the week. An upper level low will move onshore in British Columbia on Wednesday and move toward Wyoming Thursday, bring a cold front and a decent amount of moisture. There is somewhat better agreement in regards to timing. A few showers may occur Wednesday afternoon, but any substantial precipitation should hold off until after sunset Wednesday. It will bring some gusty to strong wind though Wednesday into Thursday, following the usual progression of pre frontal Muddy Gap to Casper on Wednesday and Wednesday night pre frontal and transitioning to northwest / cold advection areas on Thursday and Thursday night like Buffalo, the Bighorn Basin and Wind River Basin on Thursday and Thursday night. Many locations have a greater than 1 in 2 chance of wind gusts past 45 mph during this time. However, of greater interest though is what will happen with something we desperately need, precipitation. This system is a fairly wet one, with precipitable waters as much as 150 percent of climatological normals. However, the exact track of the low is still in question as well as some mesoscale features with it. As a result, confidence remains rather low on the resultant placement of the heaviest precipitation and any potential amounts. So, this is when we dive into the wondrous realm of probabilistic and ensemble forecasting. And the National Blend of Models has good news in this regard, with a large majority of the area having a greater than 1 in 2 chance of greater than a quarter of an inch of precipitation from Wednesday night through Friday night. And this will be a cold system following the frontal passage, with snow levels falling to the basin floors Thursday evening. Most areas have at least a 1 in 2 chance of greater than an inch of snow over a similar period. Many of the northerly upslope areas, like Lander, the southern Big Horn Basin and Casper, have a greater than 1 in 2 chance of 4 inches or more. However, this is far from certain. Also, with recent warm temperatures and warm ground, any predicted amounts will likely not be the amount on peoples yards as some will likely melt initially. At this point, the most impactful time would be Thursday night into Friday morning with gradually improving conditions Friday afternoon. This is the best chance for decent moisture we have had in quite a while though. And then we move into the next question, how cold will it get? Thursday night will likely drop into the 20s, but snow and possible travel problems will likely be of greater concern during this time frame. The timeframe we are looking at is Friday night for the coldest temperatures. There are a couple of concerns though. One, the models are split on if it can clear. If it remains cloudy, temperatures may stay a bit warmer. Also, snow cover will be a big factor. If snow is lighter then expected and if the strong April sun can melt it off Friday, it might not get as cold. As we head to the ensemble guidance again, much of the area has at least a 1 in 2 chance of low temperatures falling below 20 degrees. Now, no one should be planting gardens or crops this early in Wyoming, long time residents know this. The main concern is with budding trees, flowers as well as sprinkler systems that may freeze. It is still a long way off, but we will have to watch it. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 417 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will continue through the afternoon as the area sits under the influence of the approaching upper low. This has been most focused west of the Divide and across the Bighorn Basin. The main concern with this activity will be the potential for outflow wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph. This activity will wane after sunset for most locations. KJAC will be the exception, with snow showers leading to a short period of MVFR to IFR conditions through around 05Z. KJAC should then hold on to broken low VFR ceilings through late morning before clouds decrease. Tuesday afternoon will see lighter winds and decreased precipitation chances, mostly confined to the mountains. KJAC will be most favored for a stray shower to impact the terminal, though low confidence precludes mention in the TAF for now. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 327 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A combination of humidity falling below 15 percent, a southwest wind gusting over 50 mph and dry fuels will bring critical fire weather to Natrona County this afternoon. Elsewhere, relative humidity should not reach critical levels. However, gusty wind and humidity falling to 20 percent may bring elevated fire weather this afternoon. Conditions should improve on Tuesday as wind decreases and relative humidity moves somewhat higher. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for WYZ280. && $$ UPDATE...Gerhardt DISCUSSION...Hattings AVIATION...Myers FIRE WEATHER...Hattings  723 FXUS63 KTOP 132222 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 522 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Red Flag Warning in north-central KS this afternoon and evening. A very high fire danger. -Storms could impact far eastern KS Tuesday evening, bringing a threat for severe weather. -Additional storm chances occur Wednesday and again Friday, with more uncertainty on timing/location. -Cooler weather expected this weekend. Possible freeze and frost early Sunday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 140 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Early this afternoon, water vapor satellite imagery showed an upper level trough extending from the Great Basin southwest into southern CA. Broad southwesterly mid level flow of 40 to to 50 KTS was noted from the base of the Southwest US trough, extending northeast across the Plains, then northeast across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes States. A broad upper level ridge was centered off the FL coast across the eastern Gulf. At the surface, an area of low pressure was located across the northeast NE. A warm front extended east northeast across southern MN. A dryline extended west-southwest across eastern NE, to the far western counties of the CWA, into western OK. Winds ahead of the dryline were south-southwesterly at 15 to 25 MPH and gusts to 40 MPH. West of the dryline, winds veered more to the southwest and dewpoints have dropped down into the mid 30s to lower 40s. This afternoon and Tonight: The dryline will move east to a Washington, to Clay center, to Abilene line late this afternoon. Most CAM soundings do not show much of cap but weak confluence along the dryline will not be enough surface convergence to develop thunderstorms. The 3 KM NAM is showing sfc based storms developing across north central OK late this afternoon, which may develop northeastward during the evening hours but most other CAMs do not show any convection developing along the dryline across the CWA. If isolated storms were able to develop ahead of the dryline they would become severe with wind and hail as the primary hazard given MLCAPES around 2000 J/kg and 35 KTS of effective shear. The low level winds may be too veered for a tornado threat. but the probability for storms is below 14 percent across much of the eastern counties of the CWA. But I may place a 15 percent chance in Anderson county in case the 3K NAM is accurate with dryline storms building northeast up towards the southeast counties. Later shifts may need to update this forecast. Tonight, as the LLJ increases to 40 to 50 KTS across east central KS, I cannot rule out a few elevated storms across portions of east central KS but most of the CAMs do not show storms developing late Tonight into early Tuesday morning. Tuesday through Wednesday night: The upper trough across the southwest US will fill as it lifts northeast across the Plains Wednesday night. Tuesday, the dryline will move east across the central part of the CWA. There will not be as much QG forcing, since the H5 trough will still be farther west across UT/AZ. The surface shows more confluence along the dryline, so most of the area will remain dry. Most CAMs develop surface based storms across northern OK/south central KS and these storms may move northeast along across east central KS. The primary hazards will be large hail and damaging wind gusts but any discrete supercell may spawn a few tornadoes. However, the low-level wind fields looks to be veered, so the chances are much lower. Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night will provide a better chance for thunderstorms as the H5 trough shifts east into the Plains. DCVA ahead of the trough axis will provide for stronger ascent. At the surface a cold front will shift southeast into the northern counties and dryline will push east across the southwest counties. Thunderstorms will develop along the front and possibly south along the dryline. Some of these storms may be severe with the primary hazards being large hail and damaging wind gusts. Through the evening hours a line of storms will congeal along the cold front, and the threat will become isolated damaging wind gusts. The front should push southeast of the CWA during the early morning hours of Thursday. Thursday through Thursday night: Early Thursday, an upper level trough will move onshore across the Pacific northwest and dig southeast into the Great Basin. We may see a break from any thunderstorms as the Pacific front will push east into western MO. Frontolysis will occur through the afternoon hours and westerly winds will diminish and become southerly through Thursday night. Friday through Sunday: The extended range models are in fair agreement. The GFS is a bit more progressive and maybe more favorable for severe thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours.The H5 trough across the Great Basin will dig east-southeast across the central Rockies, then across the Plains Friday night into Saturday Morning. A cold front will push southeast across the northern High plains, then southeast across NE through the day. A surface low and dryline across western KS will shift east. Thunderstorms will develop across central KS through the afternoon hour. If discrete thunderstorms develop within the warm sector where there will be sufficient vertical wind shear and instability for supercell thunderstorms. The hazards from supercell thunderstorms would be large hail, damaging wind gusts, and possibly a few tornadoes. It still remains uncertain if these discrete supercells will remain south of the area Friday afternoon. Though the slightly more progressive GFS solution would provide a better chance for supercell thunderstorms developing ahead of the cold front/dryline during the afternoon hours before the storms congeal into a squall line. The slower ECMWF solution shows most storms developing ahead of the cold front during the mid and late evening hours. If a line of storms develop the the primary hazard would be isolated damaging wind gusts along the squall line. The cold front will move southeast of the CWA during the morning hours of Saturday and the rain and thunderstorms will shift east of the area. We will see a cool down by the weekend with highs in the mid 50s north to lower 60s south. Highs Sunday will be in the lower to mid 60s. Low temperatures early Sunday morning may fall below freezing across the northern counties of the CWA with mid 30s across much of the area. Therefore, a freeze warning and frost of advisory may be needed Saturday night into Sunday morning. An H5 ridge will move towards the Plains next week, which will cause temperatres to warm into the 70s on Monday and the 80s by the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 520 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 VFR at all TAF sites through the TAF period with gusty southerly wind. Some thunderstorms have developed down near Emporia, but confidence in these making it into the Topeka area are too low right now to place any mention in the TAF. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 340 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 While green up of vegetation is underway, a Red Flag Warning will continue across north-central KS, where gusty winds and low RH will combine to create extreme fire danger. Dew points are forecast to drop this afternoon in this area as a dryline moves east. Minimum RH behind the dryline could quickly fall to around 20 percent. South-southwest winds will be sustained at 15 to 20 mph with gusts as high as 30 mph throughout the afternoon. Similar conditions will be in place behind the dryline (mainly in central KS) on Tuesday, with minimum RH between 20 and 25 percent and continued gusty south-southwest winds. Fire headlines are not currently anticipated Tuesday. However, at this time the Range Land Fire Index has only a very high fire danger for north central KS. All Burning should be postponed through midweek. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008-KSZ020- KSZ034. && $$ DISCUSSION...Gargan AVIATION...Jones FIRE WEATHER...Gargan/Teefey  002 FXUS63 KSGF 132223 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 523 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy southerly winds will occur today and Tuesday, with southerly winds gusting up to 30-40 mph at times each afternoon. - There is the potential for severe thunderstorms across the area on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday into Saturday. - Marginal excessive rainfall concerns through the week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A chaotic synoptic pattern is evident in satellite products and model data today. In the upper levels, high pressure in the Gulf is creating ridging over the southeast U.S. and southern east coast, with more zonal flow over the upper Midwest/Great Lakes/northern east coast. A deep cutoff low is moving onto the California coast, with several shortwaves coming out of the Pacific northwest. Lower into the midlevels, a low pressure center is evident over Nebraska, which extends down to the surface. Southwest flow across the Ozarks is observed at all levels due to this low to our northwest. As it pushes into western Iowa today and tomorrow, the pressure gradient in southern Missouri tightens (particularly in the west), and we can expect some breezy conditions. Though the southwest flow is streaming plenty of warmth and moisture into our area, the 12Z upper air sounding from this morning clearly shows a very stout inversion around 800 mb that is just not realistically breakable. The convective temperature is 86 degrees, and with plenty of cloud cover todays, highs are expected to top out around 80 degrees. It appears some models are not getting the message, as a few of them try to pop out some isolated showers toward south-central Missouri this afternoon. Some low (<20%) PoPs account for this low-probability scenario. Winds decrease a bit after sunset, but clouds largely stick around, limiting radiational cooling while WAA continues overnight. Temperatures will only cool to around 70 with some mid-60s in lower elevation areas. A dryline extends south from the low pressure center in Nebraska, bisecting Oklahoma and continuing all the way down into Mexico. This will be the feature to blame for our severe weather threat Tuesday. As drylines tend to do, it hangs out here for today, wiggling back and forth a bit with nearly boundary-parallel surface flow. While the inversion/cap is too strong to allow for appreciable convection today, tomorrow looks to overcome the (weaker) cap with a much more moist profile and a little more daytime warming with highs in the mid-80s (convective temperature closer to 80 Tuesday). Instability of 1000-2000+ J/kg, steep lapse rates, and deep layer shear 30-50 kts will support supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and (to a lesser extent) tornadoes. The risk would be highest in the west/northwest and diminish to the east/southeast. This activity is expected to initiate in the afternoon and remain severe into the evening before transitioning to sub-severe convection that lingers into Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Low pressure swings through the area Wednesday, bringing a cold front that disrupts the stagnant dryline. The rain from Tuesday night continues through the day Wednesday, but the extra push from the cold front Wednesday night will bring another round of severe potential. A brief window of uncapped instability focused along the western Missouri border will have the potential to support convection, though this is a bit more uncertain given the morning precipitation. At worst, convection will be capable of large hail and damaging winds. Rain may linger into Thursday morning, ending west to east as the cold front lifts away to the north and support for precipitation ends. Without a true frontal passage, highs Thursday are still around 80. We'll see some clearing and sun Thursday, a welcome break from the rain before a more aggressive cold front swings through Friday night, finally bringing a pattern change from the southwest flow we've had all week. The SPC highlights Slight- equivalent severe potential with this frontal passage, and if this holds, more details on timing and expected severe hazards will be forthcoming. The new airmass will be quite obvious once the rain passes on Saturday, with highs over the weekend only reaching the mid-60s for most. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 518 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Breezy conditions will continue through the period, with south-southwesterly surface winds gusting up to 20-30kts at all terminals. VFR conditions should prevail through the majority of the period, with the exception of lowered Ceilings at KJLN between approximately 11Z-17Z. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Record High Temperatures: April 13: KVIH: 87/2025 April 14: KSGF: 88/1936 KVIH: 87/2006 KUNO: 86/2024 April 15: KUNO: 84/9999 April 16: KVIH: 85/2006 April 17: KSGF: 87/1937 KVIH: 86/2004 KUNO: 87/2006 Record High Minimum Temperatures: April 13: KSGF: 65/1890 April 14: KSGF: 67/2006 April 15: KSGF: 63/2006 April 17: KSGF: 66/1976 && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Nelson LONG TERM...Nelson AVIATION...Melto CLIMATE...Camden  287 FXUS62 KMFL 132243 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 643 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 640 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 - Reduced visibilites and air quality will be possible overnight across portions of the Naples metro as smoke from the Newman Fire continues to drift westward. - Dangerous rip currents will continue at all east coast beaches of South Florida through at least Tuesday evening. - Gusty winds continue across south Florida this evening, especially along the immediate east coast where gusts up to 25 mph are possible. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Tuesday) Issued at 1232 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Stout mid-level ridging remains entrenched across the southeastern United States this afternoon as 500mb pressure heights remain around the 97th-99th percentile when compared to climatological norms. The ridge aloft is also represented nicely in recent ACARS soundings from SoFlo airports as a substantial amount of dry air remains in most of the vertical column with a subsidence inversion at 800- 900mb. At the surface, a sprawling ridge of high pressure remains in place across South Florida and much of the western Atlantic waters resulting in a continued gusty easterly flow at the surface across most of the region as the pressure gradient remains in place. Precipitable water values remain at or just above the 10th percentile for today's date, indicative of an atmosphere that remains anhydrous outside of an isolated sprinkle or two. A narrow layer of greater moisture at 4,000 to 5,000 feet will once again allow for the development of scattered flat-topped cumulus clouds that will remain vertically capped with height, confined to the layer by the subsidence inversion above. Deep-layer ridging will remain the status quo over South Florida tonight into Tuesday as the pressure gradient at the surface gradually relaxes. Precipitable water values will remain between the 10th to 25th percentile during this time period, with a subsidence inversion keeping any clouds vertically capped with height. Still cannot rule out a few brisk moving light showers moving onshore across the east coast metro due to the local maxima of moisture and instability from the Gulfstream waters. Even in a dry environment, the mesoscale moisture source could still spur some non-zero threat of showers as indicated by the HRRR and a few other convective models. Have opted to go above NBM guidance (0% POP) and added in a 10-15% chance of rain along the east coast of SoFlo tomorrow morning. A temperature gradient will continue across the region both during the day and overnight as onshore winds keep temperatures along the east coast cooler during the day and warmer overnight. High temperatures today and tomorrow will range from the upper 70s to low 80s across the east coast metro to upper 80s (even a smattering of low 90s) across the western half of South Florida. Overnight temperatures will range from the low 70s along the immediate east coast to low 60s across inland portions of the region tonight into early Tuesday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1232 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Deep layer ridging and copious amounts of dry air will remain throughout the vertical atmospheric column for much of the upcoming work week. Although surface ridging will remain entrenched across the region over the next several days, a weakening pressure gradient will result in a gradual relaxing of surface winds towards the end of the work week. Subsidence, low precipitable water values compared to historical climatological norms, and a lack of any significant rainfall & sufficient cloud cover will result in a continued warming trend across the majority of the region with the potential of high temperatures in the low 90s across the western half of South Florida by mid- week. An onshore breeze will keep high temperatures slightly cooler along the east coast but temperatures in the middle to upper 80s will be possible across the east coast metro during the second half of the week. Mid-level ridging will gradually elongate and flatten during the second half of the week as transient lobes (troughing) of mid-level vorticity advect eastward across the central United States while a new foci of surface high pressure develops across the southeastern United States. As the mid-level trough axis advects along, 500mb flow will briefly veer northwesterly as a new axis of mid-level ridging develops over the Gulf. A plume of deeper atmospheric moisture in the boundary layer will advect into the region via the anti-cyclonic flow around this feature which will usher in higher precipitable water values and slightly higher rain chances on Sunday into early next week. While spotty showers remain possible during this portion of the extended period, significant rainfall (any substantial drought relief) remains elusive for South Florida over the next several days. Generally speaking though, by the end of the week into the upcoming weekend there may be some low end shower chances along the east coast in the mornings, with some isolated seabreeze convection across the interior and west coast in the afternoons. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 640 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 VFR and breezy easterly flow throughout the TAF period at all east coast terminals. Smoke from the Newman Fire in western Collier may result in reduced cig/vis at KAPF overnight. Winds may lessen slightly overnight but will once again enhance after daybreak on Tuesday. && .MARINE... Issued at 1232 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Lingering hazardous winds will continue across the Atlantic waters today into Tuesday before improving towards mid-week. ENE winds 20-25 kts with seas of 6-7 feet are expected in the southern Atlantic waters today and may also be seen briefly at times in the northern local Atlantic waters off of the Palm Beach coast. While winds and seas will subside a bit for the remainder of the week after today, cautionary conditions will continue across the Atlantic as winds and gusts likely won't drop below 15 knots through the end of the week. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1232 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 The high risk for deadly rip currents will most likely continue for much of the week as consistent onshore flow continues. The strong onshore flow around the surface ridge will also result in elevated surf today with breakers around 4-6 ft. As winds gradually subside later in the work week, the rip current risk should gradually abate. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 70 81 69 81 / 10 10 0 0 West Kendall 66 83 65 83 / 10 10 0 0 Opa-Locka 69 82 68 82 / 10 10 0 0 Homestead 70 82 69 81 / 10 10 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 71 79 69 79 / 10 10 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 70 79 69 80 / 10 10 0 0 Pembroke Pines 71 83 69 84 / 10 10 0 0 West Palm Beach 69 79 67 80 / 10 10 0 0 Boca Raton 70 79 69 79 / 10 10 0 0 Naples 66 87 64 86 / 0 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ168-172-173. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ630-650-651- 670-671. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hadi LONG TERM....Hadi AVIATION...Hadi  684 FXUS64 KMAF 132244 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 544 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 543 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 - Low to medium shower and thunderstorm chances (20-40%) Tuesday across the far eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. Damaging winds and large hail remain the primary hazards for the strongest storms. - Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions are expected across southeast New Mexico, the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains, and portions of far west Texas through Friday. - Very windy conditions expected in the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains through Tuesday evening. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Tuesday night) Issued at 252 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A broad dryline has developed this afternoon across the eastern Permian Basin. Convergence and instability along this feature is causing a few storms to develop with the help of daytime heating. Shear is marginal but we could see a storm or two become severe with large hail and strong winds the main threats. The dryline retreats back west overnight before surging back east tomorrow in a near carbon copy of what is happening today. Additional lift from an upper trough and jet stream will increase the storm coverage and PoPs increase to 40 to 50 percent in the far eastern counties. Highs will be similar to today reaching the 80s for most locations which is pretty typical for April. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 252 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Westerly flow then dominates for the middle and end of the week, keeping the dryline just far enough east that rain chances should generally remain in the Big Country and Hill Country of central and west-central Texas. Cannot rule out a rogue shower from Big Lake to Snyder but rainfall amounts will be very little. Highs should hold in the 80s to lower 90s throughout this week since there are no upper features moving across the area to provide any change. Friday an upper level trough moves out of the intermountain west and into the Great Plains. Unfortunately the best lift will be north of the area and this system will provide more wind than anything else. It is possible that pressure falls ahead of the trough could hold the dryline far enough west that some of the eastern counties in our CWA could see some rain chances but most of the area will be dry, windy, and quite possibly dusty. The trough moves east of the area and a cold front moves through Saturday bringing quite pleasant temperatures for the weekend with slightly below normal highs in the 70s. Hennig && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 543 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Storms remain east of the terminals, but outflow will switch winds the the southeast at KMAF and KFST over the next hour with gusts near 30 kts possible. VFR will prevail with southwesterly winds becoming breezy by Tuesday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 252 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Have left the Tuesday Fire Weather Watch in effect for now and will let one more shift look at conditions before making a final decision. At this time, it appears minimum afternoon humidities will be a little to high to warrant a Red Flag Warning but again will wait 12 hours to see if models drop them any. A dryline will push east into the Permian Basin daily bringing elevated fire weather conditions to portions of southeastern New Mexico and the Permian Basin, but the day to watch is Friday. An upper low moving into the Great Plains will bring windy and dry conditions and Friday afternoon should see critical fire weather conditions across a good portion of the area. The limiting factor could be fuel moisture in the eastern basin and lower Trans Pecos. Fire fighters should monitor Friday as the biggest day of concern. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 65 85 62 86 / 20 30 50 20 Carlsbad 59 85 54 81 / 0 10 10 0 Dryden 66 83 63 85 / 30 40 50 20 Fort Stockton 62 87 62 86 / 20 20 30 10 Guadalupe Pass 56 74 52 71 / 0 10 10 0 Hobbs 57 84 54 81 / 10 10 20 0 Marfa 50 80 49 78 / 10 10 20 0 Midland Intl Airport 64 86 62 84 / 20 20 40 10 Odessa 64 86 62 84 / 20 20 40 10 Wink 60 87 60 84 / 10 10 20 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. NM...High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for Chaves Plains-Lea. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...29  381 FXUS61 KCTP 132254 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 654 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Special Weather Statement for an elevated risk of rapid wildfire spread may be need again for late this morning and this afternoon across Southern PA. * Increased wind gusts by a few knots for this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon as a few upper level disturbance as associated LLVL wind maxes move across New York. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Elevated risk of wildfire spread will be focused across southern PA once again today. 2) Another impressive warm up begins today and continues through the week; near- record warmth on tap for Wednesday and Thursday. 3) Several periods of showers and thunderstorms expected during the upcoming week, with the greatest amount of rainfall likely occurring across northern and western PA. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Elevated risk of wildfire spread will be focused across southern PA once again today. After a few light showers drifted across the region this morning, a mostly dry afternoon is underway.Subtle ridging aloft and low-mid level speed divergence will help suppress most of the showers for the afternoon, with warm temps and a gusty SW wind in the mid 20s to low 30s (KTS). Min RHs in the 30s (Percent) will occur across the South (where the worst drought conditions and driest fine fuels persist). Although Min RHs will be nearly 10 percent higher than Sunday, the other elements will still be conducive to rapid fire spread where ignition occurs. A Special Weather Statement remains in effect until 7PM for much of the southern third of the CWA. ---------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 2: Warm up begins today and continues through the week; near-record warmth on tap for Wednesday and Thursday. LLVL warm advection kicks in today with a moderately gusty southerly flow ushering in a prolonged period of much warmer than normal temperatures through the upcoming week. On the large-scale, our ensemble prediction systems are in good agreement showing a mean upper-level trough across the western CONUS, with downstream upper ridging taking hold from the Gulf states up the eastern seaboard. This will bring a notable warming trend, with daily highs ranging from the 70s-mid 80s across central PA from Tuesday onward. The latest forecast brings near-record temperatures across the region Wednesday morning through Friday morning, with lows both Wednesday and Thursday morning forecast to be warmer than our average highs this time of year (or an incredible 25 to 30 deg F above normal). Highs in the 70s and 80s will accompany lows in the 50s and 60s. Dewpoints will start to approach the 60F mark, so it will feel a bit humid but not overly uncomfortable. ---------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 3: Several periods of showers and thunderstorms expected during the upcoming week, especially in the north and west. In general for the workweek ahead, the storm track will run from SW to NE across the Great Lakes, with several waves of low pressure drifting into Ontario, CA. A frontal boundary will set up generally west to east across New York and keep unsettled weather in place across northwest PA in particular. LLJ will lift across far northern PA western NY this morning, keeping the main focus for any significant convection generally north/west of the region today. For Tuesday, SPC has expanded the MRGL Risk for SVR TSRA over much of the Northern Half of PA for the afternoon and evening as a 35 to 40 kt WSW LLVL wind max advects across that part of the state during peak heating with broad upper level diffluence noted in the westerly flow AOA 500 mb on the southerly flank of an upper level jet max. If you have outdoor plans this week, continue to monitor the forecast - no need to cancel anything yet! The probability for showers/storms will be highest in northwest PA. Locations that have been wet lately will continue to see more rain, while drought- stricken locations across the southeast part of our CWA will see less rainfall. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Isolated showers and storms for a few more hours early this evening, mainly near BFD and IPT. Overall most of the area will be dry with VFR conditions into Tuesday. BFD will have the main chance for MVFR and even IFR conditions later tonight into Tuesday morning. For showers on Tuesday, just have them in for BFD and JST. BFD the most likely spot to have one. Most of the area will be south of the warm front, thus not seeing much of a signal for showers and storms prior to 00Z Wed. Most of the week we will be in the warm sector, and not a real high chance for showers or storms. The next strong cold front will be later in the weekend. Outlook... Wed-Thu...VFR most of the time, but brief restrictions possible in hit and miss showers and thunderstorms, mainly across the north and west. Fri...Restrictions possible early, then improving to VFR in the afternoon. Sat...Restrictions in SHRA early, drier conditions late. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Banghoff KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Banghoff DISCUSSION...Lambert/Banghoff AVIATION...Martin/Beaty  152 FXUS63 KDLH 132258 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 558 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A decreased severe threat remains for our far southern Wisconsin areas this evening, with a primary risk of two inch golf ball hail and localized, minor flooding possible along portions of the South Shore. - More storms are expected tomorrow afternoon but will mainly stay to our south, though a few could clip our southeast with small hail. - An active pattern continues, with a couple more chances for showers and thunderstorms and even some light snow over the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 101 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A thick deck of low stratus lingers from morning fog over northeast Minnesota and along the South Shore of northwest Wisconsin. This cloud cover, combined with a small line of light showers currently moving northeast in northwest Wisconsin and soon to reach Pine County, will prevent the favorable severe weather environment from reaching most of the area. However, a targeted severe threat remains this evening for our far southern Wisconsin zones, particularly around Price County. The main hazard will be large hail up to two inches in diameter due to a very deep hail growth layer aloft. The tornado and wind threat has dropped significantly as storms will struggle to remain surface based, but a few strong gusts or a brief tornado cannot be completely ruled out if a storm moves up from the south before elevating. Additionally, a localized flash flood risk continues tonight across the South Shore as more rain falls on saturated soils and remaining existing snowpack. Moving into tomorrow, another round of storms is expected in the afternoon, but the bulk of this activity will remain to our south. A few strong storms could clip our southeastern areas and produce small hail. Meanwhile, a broader upper level trough and surface boundary will bring scattered light rain showers across northern Minnesota throughout the day. Temperatures will remain relatively cool, topping out in the 40s and 50s across the region with light easterly winds shifting to the northwest by the late afternoon. The active weather pattern continues into Wednesday as another deep trough in the Central Plains sends a warm front lifting towards the Northland. This system has shifted south, and most showers and storms will once again stay to our south. However, there is a small chance that some weak instability may reach our southern CWA border, and a few thunderstorms producing small hail cannot be ruled out. Temperatures will begin to moderate, reaching the upper 50s and mid 60s for most locations, accompanied by a steady southeast wind. By Thursday, the region gets a brief and partial break, though a few lingering rain showers remain possible, especially in the morning. Temperatures will continue their upward trend, with afternoon highs reaching the 60s up to 70 degrees under partly sunny skies. Friday looks to be highly dynamic as a large, elongated system pulls Gulf moisture northward into the Upper Midwest. Southerly winds will increase, bringing warm air and pushing high temperatures into the upper 60s and lower 70s. This influx of warm, moist air will lead to widespread rain and another potential round of severe thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours as a strong front passes. A quick change arrives for Friday on the back of the system. Strong northwesterly winds will bring in a much colder airmass, sending overnight lows falling back below freezing Friday night. Lingering moisture wrapping around the departing low will likely transition from rain to scattered snow showers or rain/snow mix into Saturday. Since we've been warm lately, the ground will be warm enough that very little snow accumulation is expected, if any. The exception would be isolated areas of higher snowfall rates, though that remains uncertain at this time. High temperatures will struggle to reach 40 degrees. Fortunately, the chill is short lived, with sunny skies and temperatures rebounding into the 50s by Sunday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 551 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 MVFR cigs linger across portions of northern MN and northwest WI this evening, as a weather system moves through the area. A warm front will lift into northwest WI this evening, bringing rain and thunderstorms northward. Expect most of this activity to remain south and east of HYR. Another area of light rain will move from west to east across portions of north central and northeast MN late tonight and Tuesday morning. This could bring a period of light rain to INL early tomorrow. The larger aviation concern will be low clouds settling over the area this evening and persisting through Tuesday. Drops to IFR and LIFR are expected, with cigs as low as 200-400ft. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 101 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Northeast winds will persist over Western Lake Superior into Tuesday as low pressure passes to our south. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect due to wind gusts up to 25 knots and waves building to 4 feet, particularly along the North Shore and Outer Apostle Islands. Winds will gradually ease and become variable by Tuesday night before shifting easterly on Wednesday. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 101 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 No critical fire weather conditions are expected in the near term. An active weather pattern will keep the region wet with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the week. Relative humidity values will remain well above 30%, and winds will generally stay under 15 mph through Thursday before increasing on Friday from the south. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 342 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Over the past 72 hrs we have had a few swaths of 0.25-0.50" over our existing snowpack into the Arrowhead and the South Shore. The highest swatch of over 1" ran through Sawyer into southern Ashland and Iron Counties. There is still some potential for storms to develop late this afternoon and evening and move across our Flood Watch counties, but chances have decreased as the warm front that will be the focal point for storm initiation is projected to be farther south. Additional rainfall of around 0.50" will be possible with locally higher amounts should any storms develop. Tuesday's activity also looks to be more light rain focused on northern MN. With this in mind we have opted to shorten the duration of the Flood Watch to Tuesday morning. An impressively warm day for Sunday has help to melt more of the snow pack. The South Shore saw temperatures climb into the 60s and 70s. And even the North Shore got in on some of the warmth action with highs capping out in the 50s. Modeled snow depth across the South Shore saw a significant decrease losing as much as 8" in just 24 hrs. The North Shore's >24" foot print has also been reduced from the Arrowhead to mainly the high terrain of the North Shore. It's hard to know the extent of how much water this has returned to the soil but across the South Shore it is likely in excess of 2". Taking a trip through some of river gauges does show some response to this added liquid from snow melt. Across the MN sites the river heights have increase 0.5-1.0' NW WI where we saw the more impressive melting has seen rises of 2-3' across several rivers. The Tyler Forks River near Mellen WI is still the primary concern with a Flood Warning already in effect. This river is expected to crest on Tuesday morning just below moderate flood stage and move out of minor flooding Thursday. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for WIZ002>004. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 8 AM CDT Tuesday for LSZ140-141. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Tuesday for LSZ142>147-150. && $$ DISCUSSION...KML AVIATION...HA MARINE...KML FIRE WEATHER...KML HYDROLOGY...Britt