359 FXUS63 KABR 132300 AAA AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 600 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated strong storms possible this evening. Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe weather across north central and northeast South Dakota. Large hail up to 1 inch in diameter and strong wind gusts of 60 mph are the main threat. Slight risk (2 of 5) extends just into far eastern South Dakota through west central Minnesota. Hail of 1 to 1.5 inches in diameter and wind gusts of 60 mph are the main threats in that area. - A warming trend will take place through the week, peaking on Thursday with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s (20 to 25 degrees above mid-April normals). A strong cold front will bring colder air back into the region Friday/Saturday, with temperatures dropping to 10 to 15 degrees below normal. && .UPDATE... Issued at 556 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Cancelled the Red Flag Warning early this evening as RH in the affected area is above 40 percent and winds have fallen below 20 mph. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 136 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Low stratus deck and pockets of dense fog has stuck around longer than expected this morning, leading to an expectation of temperatures much lower than previous forecasts, especially in the north. Central South Dakota may still see temperatures in the 70s, but over north central and northeastern South Dakota as well as western Minnesota the expectation is now that highs may struggle to hit 60 degrees. This temperature reduction will have consequences for this afternoon and evening's fire weather conditions and potential severe weather threat. Tackling the critical fire weather conditions first, the Red Flag Warning is still in place from 18Z this afternoon through 01Z Tuesday for Stanley, Jones, and Lyman counties. With the delay in the low clouds clearing out this morning, the resulting slight high temperature drop compared to previous forecasts will push minimum afternoon humidity up a bit. Parts of Jones and Lyman counties are still expected to reach below 20 percent, but concern further north into Stanley county is beginning to wane due to humidity ranging from 25 to 40 percent across the county now expected. Wind gusts also appear somewhat marginal this afternoon in that area, but a tightening pressure gradient (supporting a flip to a westerly direction) will still get gusts up to 25-30 miles per hour for a couple of hours. So while confidence is decreasing, the area may still still reach Red Flag conditions. Even if Red Flag conditions aren't met to the letter, relatively dry fuels in the area combined with the aforementioned humidity and wind conditions will support High Grassland Fire Danger regardless. There are two main areas of concern for severe weather today, the first of which coming over northeastern South Dakota and western Minnesota. Convection is expected to develop along a frontal boundary, which recent guidance has trended southward. Due to this southward shift, recent runs of CAMs have been much less impressed with the setup, and most keep storm initiation to the southeast of the forecast area. There remains a scenario in which a storm develop along and then up the front, moving north as an elevated storm. Should this occur, the ingredients at the mid- to upper-levels appear to be mostly in place to sustain storms this far to the north. Strong mid-level lapse rates between 7 and 8 C/km and ample shear upwards of 45 knots support favorable hail conditions, but the missing ingredient in the area is the MUCAPE, which remains more favorable closer to the front to the south (reaching at most 1000 J/kg in parts of eastern South Dakota within the Aberdeen forecast area). All this to say that while convective initiation does not appear favorable over the Aberdeen forecast area, still can't rule anything out at this point. Anticipating hail of 1"-1.5" at the most at this point, with damaging winds also possible, though they may have trouble mixing down to the surface with any elevated storms. A secondary severe weather threat is located over north central South Dakota this evening. Hi-res CAMs are almost more impressed by this setup, which is a bit of a reversal in the expectations put forth by previous forecasts. Development is once again expected along the front as it curves back north. With the front in the area convective initiation may be a bit easier, although the limitations from the lingering cloud cover may still prove fatal to prospective storms. Should something get going along the boundary, shear upwards of 40 knots, 500-700mb lapse rates around 7-7.5 C/km, and marginal MUCAPE (again about 500-1000 J/kg at the highest) may sustain a brief hail threat. After detaching from the boundary, MUCAPE will quickly run out as storms push north and east, limiting the expectations for a sustained threat this evening in north central South Dakota. There is once again a signal for fog development overnight tonight, mainly over northeastern and north central South Dakota. Strong humidity recovery combined with light winds provide the favorable conditions, with the main caveat being wind gusts upwards of 10 knots potentially dispelling some of the fog. However if conditions can stay calm (which under a weakening pressure gradient, chances of weaker winds should improve through the night), one mile visibility or lower may develop in the early morning hours. Briefly looking in the extended period, the broad upper-level setup keeps jet streaks and higher wind speeds aloft to the east of the northern plains for the next few days. The possible exception to this is a shortwave clipping eastern South Dakota on Wednesday, but presently precipitation chances peak around 20-30%. Otherwise, a warming trend is expected through Thursday, with highs reaching 20- 25 degrees above normal (highs in the upper 70s to low 80s) by that point. Fire weather may be a concern Thursday as well, with the heat bringing low afternoon humidity, combined with southerly winds gusting to 20-30 miles per hour in the afternoon. Ensemble clusters appear to be in agreement on a favorable setup for an end of week system to move into the northern plains. A longwave trough over the western CONUS will develop a low pressure center into the region. Early looks at ensemble meteograms show that with colder air being allowed to filter in from the trough, snow is very much a possible precipitation type, particularly on the back end of the system with lingering precipitation behind a cold front. Ensemble means show roughly one inch of snow through the weekend. Northwesterly winds will also pick up behind the cold front, with the latest NBM giving a broad roughly 10-30% over the area to reach Wind Advisory criteria of 45 miles per hour. However taking into account known biases in the NBM, those probabilities are likely a bit underdone. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 556 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG MVFR/IFR stratus persists across the east. While there may be some clearing this evening for a few hours, expect the stratus field to expand again tonight along with some fog redevelopment. An isolated lightning strike cannot be ruled out over the next couple of hours near KATY. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...20 DISCUSSION...BC AVIATION...20  386 FXUS66 KPDT 132302 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 402 PM PDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy to windy today. - Winter weather and wind returns late Tuesday. Winter weather headlines have been issued for the Cascades. - Near- to sub-freezing morning lows Thursday and Friday for the lowlands. && .DISCUSSION... A deformation band brought copious precipitation to northeast Oregon and southeast Washington late yesterday into this morning. Satellite shows the upper low responsible for the wet weather has tracked east into the Rockies. In its wake, skies have partially cleared, and strong cross-Cascade pressure gradients (~9-11 mb difference between PDX and GEG) in tandem with strong cold air advection (CAA) have driven widespread breezy to windy westerly winds through the Cascade gaps and into the Columbia Basin. Strongest winds have been noted through the exit region of the eastern Columbia River Gorge, lower Columbia Basin of Oregon, Kittitas Valley, and foothills of the northern Blue Mountains of Oregon. Previously, anticipated the winds to slacken by late morning to early afternoon, so opted to highlight the winds with Special Weather Statements. In hindsight, Wind Advisories would have been justified as numerous sites such as PDT, HRI, and ELN have either flirted with or maintained advisory-level sustained winds (30 mph) or gusts (45 mph) into the afternoon hours. Either way, winds should weaken by tonight as the shortwave that is tracking overhead pushes east and pressure gradients slacken. The break in significant weather will be short-lived as another strong weather system is expected (95 percent confidence) to arrive late Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon. Ensemble and deterministic NWP guidance are in excellent agreement that this system, the shortwave trough currently present in the Gulf of Alaska, will drop southeast into the Pacific Northwest with its attendant cold front expected (90 percent confidence) to lower snow levels below mountain pass levels by later Tuesday morning (Washington Cascades) through Tuesday afternoon (Oregon Cascades). Winter weather headlines have been issued for moderate to heavy snowfall for the Cascades. Confidence is high (80 percent) in 4-8 inches of snowfall for the Washington Cascades with 6-12 inches for the Oregon Cascades, locally higher along the crests. The bulk of the snowfall will likely (80 percent confidence) end through Wednesday morning or early afternoon as the front sags southeast, but upslope snow showers will persist through Wednesday night or Thursday morning as the upper low moves overhead. Precipitation for non-mountain areas will be mostly rain below 1500-2000 feet, though uncertainty exists in snowfall between 2000 and 4000 feet. Much of this uncertainty is driven by how long the frontal band lingers over the lowlands, and also in post-frontal snow showers. Widespread breezy to windy southwest winds are expected Tuesday afternoon and night in advance of the cold frontal passage. By Wednesday afternoon, winds will become westerly to northwesterly in the wake of the front and remain diurnally breezy to windy through Thursday. Probabilities of exceeding advisory levels is widely varying (30-80 percent), highest for wind-prone locations of the foothills of the Blue Mountains and north-central Oregon Tuesday then the Kittitas Valley for Wednesday and Thursday. Near- to below-freezing morning temperatures are forecast for many lowland areas Thursday and Friday, just in time for growing season. NBM calibrated probabilities suggest medium-high chances (60-90 percent) of freezing temperatures for the Yakima and Kittitas valleys, medium probabilities (30-70 percent) along the foothills of the Blue Mountains, and low-medium (20-40 percent) for the lowest elevations including the eastern Columbia River Gorge and lower Columbia Basin. An upper-level ridge will likely (80 percent confidence) build into the Pacific Northwest Friday into the weekend, yielding lighter winds and mostly dry conditions. By Sunday, uncertainty in the 500-hPa pattern grows, but some flavor of a 500-hPa closed low or trough is advertised by ensemble clusters. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions are expected through Tuesday. The main concern remains the gusty west to northwest winds which will gust in the 20 to 30 kt range through the evening before decreasing. Winds will increase again on Tuesday in the late morning/early afternoon hours and gust around 20 to 25 kts. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 36 59 42 52 / 0 10 60 90 ALW 40 58 44 52 / 0 20 80 100 PSC 40 61 45 58 / 0 20 30 80 YKM 36 58 38 54 / 0 20 60 40 HRI 39 61 43 56 / 0 10 30 80 ELN 36 52 33 48 / 0 40 60 40 RDM 27 56 35 50 / 0 10 40 90 LGD 32 57 40 49 / 20 10 100 100 GCD 30 58 38 49 / 30 10 70 100 DLS 41 58 42 54 / 0 30 80 80 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 11 PM PDT Wednesday for WAZ522. OR...Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM Tuesday to 5 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ509. && $$ DISCUSSION...86 AVIATION...77  621 FXUS62 KMLB 132303 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 703 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 300 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 - Remaining dry over the next several days with a warming trend; Near record highs in the lower 90s this weekend over the interior. - Next cold front forecast to cross the area Monday and bring a small chance for showers. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Thru Tonight...Mostly pleasant conditions with easterly wind flow, breezy at times with gusts up to 20 mph, decreasing after sunset. Fair weather stratocumulus clouds will push westward while very high (cirrus) clouds stream eastward at 30-35k ft. Near seasonable temps falling into the upper 50s and lower 60s by morning, except holding in the upper 60s along the immediate coast due to the onshore flow. Tue-Sun...High pressure ridge axis north of the area through mid week will shift southward and reach central FL late this week and into the weekend. This will allow low level onshore winds to weaken. And combined with a persistent high pressure ridge aloft, dry conditions are forecast with a gradual warming trend over the next several days. Highs in the low to mid 80s into midweek, will increase to the mid to upper 80s across the interior Thursday, with near 90/low 90s forecast across inland areas Friday thru Sunday. These above normal temperatures will be near record highs for interior sites, with Leesburg having the best chance to tie or break their daily record on Saturday. Not as warm along the east coast due to the sea breeze which will hold max temps to the mid 80s this weekend. Mon...The next cool front is forecast to cross the area and knock temperatures back down to seasonable levels in the low to mid 80s. NBM shows rain chances at 20 percent which largely splits the difference between the drier ECMWF (10 percent) and relatively wetter GFS (30-35 percent). Both models show a period of gusty/windy NE to E winds developing behind the front and continuing into Tue. && .MARINE... Issued at 300 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Boating conditions are showing gradual improvement as winds begin to decrease especially across the northern and central waters. A little tighter pressure gradient across the southern (Treasure coast) waters will support 15-20 knots into this eve. And seas 5-6 FT will support a Caution headline for the southern waters to start. High pressure ridge axis will slowly press southward and reach central FL and adjacent Altc waters late this week. Onshore flow largely prevailing with speeds 5-15 knots. Seas subside 3-5 FT Tue/Wed, 3-4 FT Thu and 2-3 FT Fri/Sat. Dry conditions forecast to continue for the next 5 days. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 702 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 VFR conditions continue, but may have to monitor for some patchy ground fog north of I-4 early Tue morning. ERLY winds diminish this evening, though stay elevated up to 10 kts along the immediate Space/Treasure coasts with a few higher gusts. E/ESE winds increase to 8-13 kts again on Tue - highest at the coast with some stronger gusts, esp in assoc with the inland moving sea breeze in the afternoon. Dry conditions through the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 300 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 High pressure ridge axis will settle southward and reach central Florida late this week allowing winds to gradually decrease. East winds will still become breezy at the coast Tuesday afternoon behind the sea breeze at 15 to 20 mph. Dry conditions are forecast through at least Friday with a gradual warming trend taking place. Min RH values of 35-40 percent are forecast across Lake County Tuesday, and lower 30-35 percent near and northwest of the I-4 corridor from mid to late week. However, wind speeds will be less than 15 mph there. Dispersion values will be Good to Very Good Tuesday and Wednesday. $$ .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 63 81 61 81 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 63 84 61 84 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 67 79 66 79 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 65 80 63 80 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 61 86 61 86 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 61 84 60 84 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 63 84 62 85 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 65 80 62 80 / 0 0 0 0 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 63 81 61 81 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 63 84 61 84 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 67 79 66 79 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 65 80 63 80 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 61 86 61 86 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 61 84 60 84 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 63 84 62 85 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 65 80 62 80 / 0 0 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kelly AVIATION...Sedlock  890 FXUS64 KBMX 132303 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 603 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 557 PM CDT MON APR 13 2026 - Fire danger will remain elevated through the week due to recent dryness, low relative humidity values, and increased winds at times. Outdoor burning is highly discouraged. - Near-record high temperatures are expected each day this week with no rain chances, causing drought conditions to worsen. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 1111 AM CDT MON APR 13 2026 The forecast remains on track from the overnight shift, with only minor adjustments made. Looking out the window, there's a rare sighting of radar echoes just to our northwest. These echoes are associated with mid to upper-level shortwave impulses riding up and over the 590 decameter ridge centered just to the west of the Florida Peninsula. The KBMX 12z sounding measured a measly 0.55 inches of precipitable water with considerable dry air measured aloft to 700mb. In other words, there's little to no chance of any rainfall moving into the forecast area today. Any radar echoes that happen to move into our far NW counties today will have a very low chance of actually reaching the surface. Mostly to partly cloudy skies will remain in place however, which will keep temperatures from rising above the low to mid 80s across the NW half of the CWA. The SE half closer to the I-85 corridor could approach those upper 80s with clouds more scattered in nature. Surface winds will remain breezy at times from the south due to the strong pressure gradient between the 1030mb ridge dominating over the western Atlantic and storm system moving across the Great Plains. As mentioned over the past several forecast cycles, we'll stay just shy of Red Flag criteria in terms of RH values but highly advise against any burning. Dry ground and fuel conditions would favor rapid fire growth capable of spreading quickly with forecast winds of 10 to 15mph this afternoon. Following a fairly mild overnight period with lows in the 50s to near 60 once again, we'll start to slowly but surely inch closer to the 90 degree mark by the end of the week. Records will certainly be in jeopardy, which are listed in the climate section below for reference. The best chance of hitting 90 degrees will be on Thursday or Friday before the cold front arrives by Saturday night and into Sunday. Global guidance is unfortunately trending drier as the front moves across the region on Sunday due to lack of low-level moisture return and upper level forcing far removed to our north. As drier air moves in on Monday and Tuesday of next week, fire weather concerns could increase once again with drought conditions continuing to worsen. 56/GDG Previous discussion: (Monday through next Sunday) Issued at 1144 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026 An unseasonably strong 590 decameter subtropical ridge will remain centered along the Florida Gulf Coast through Thursday, generally steering a series of shortwaves to the northwest of Central Alabama and resulting in near-record high temperatures each day. At low-levels a Bermuda high will maintain southerly low-level flow. However, the combination of easterly flow trajectories over the eastern Gulf, the shallow nature of the moisture, and strong downward mixing of dry air aloft will maintain a dry air mass, along with dry ground conditions. Weak vorticity maxima in southwest flow aloft will result in just some high clouds today. These clouds and onshore flow may knock a degree or two off of high temperatures, but they will still be well above normal. RH values will be slightly higher today while winds still remain a bit elevated. These will remain shy of red flag thresholds, but fire danger remains elevated nonetheless. Little change in air mass is expected Tuesday and Wednesday. High temperatures will be close to records. RH values will be near critical levels with slightly weaker winds. A shortwave temporarily weakens the ridge a bit on Thursday. Showers and thunderstorm activity off to our west/northwest will weaken as it encounters the dry air mass, with just low chances for showers and storms in our far northwest counties. The center of the ridge retrogrades to the central Gulf by Friday. Meanwhile a mid-level ridge axis also builds back to the north across the Southeast as a deeper trough digs across the western CONUS. Medium probabilities of highs reaching 90F are indicated by the NBM for Friday, which would be the first 90 degree readings of the season for many areas. Low to medium chances of highs reaching 90 continue on Saturday. The western trough pushes eastward over the weekend, with a frontal passage expected Saturday night. Ensemble cluster analysis indicates good agreement on the frontal passage, but some differences regarding the amplitude of the trough that will dictate rain coverage along the front. Rainfall amounts are still unimpressive with the more amplified solutions, however, with limited moisture return and most of the precipitation behind the front. Fire concerns may increase behind the front Sunday, especially in the southeast half of the area which looks to receive little to no rainfall. 32/JDavis && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 557 PM CDT MON APR 13 2026 VFR conditions and light winds prevail through this TAF window. Moisture will increase slightly across the western half of the state overnight. This may lead to a brief period of MVFR cigs at TCL near sunrise. However, chances are low so have left any mention out of the TAFs at this time. 95/Castillo && .FIRE WEATHER... Fire danger will remain elevated through this afternoon, getting very close to Red Flag criteria in a few locations. MinRHs are now forecast to drop into the upper 20s to near 30 along and east of the I-65 corridor, with mostly mid 30s elsewhere. 20ft winds are also forecast to gust between 15 and 20mph at times. RH values are forecast to drop Tuesday and Wednesday down to critical thresholds around 25%, while 20ft winds will gust to 10-15 mph. No rainfall is expected through the end of the week. A cold front is forecast to move through Saturday night, which may increase fire weather concerns through the weekend given a lack of significant rainfall expected with the frontal passage. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1102 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026 Record High Temperatures: April 13: KEET: 87/2017 KTCL: 87/1972 KMGM: 88/1972 April 14: KBHM: 89/1981 KEET: 85/2017 KANB: 89/1981 KTCL: 88/2003 KMGM: 89/1972 April 15: KBHM: 88/1936 KEET: 85/2012 KANB: 89/1972 KTCL: 88/1972 KMGM: 91/1972 April 16: KBHM: 89/1977 KEET: 84/2013 KTCL: 90/1955 KMGM: 90/1925 April 17: KBHM: 90/1955 KEET: 86/2013 KTCL: 92/1955 KMGM: 90/1955 April 18: KBHM: 91/2006 KEET: 90/2006 KANB: 90/1955 KMGM: 91/2006 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 54 86 55 88 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 57 86 57 87 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 60 87 60 87 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 58 86 57 87 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 57 87 57 87 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 57 86 59 87 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 55 88 57 88 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 55 87 57 88 / 0 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...56/GDG AVIATION...95/Castillo  371 FXUS62 KCHS 132307 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 707 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... All sections have been updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Dry weather and above-normal temperatures expected to continue through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry weather and above-normal temperatures expected to continue through the weekend. Overall, no significant change to the forecast thinking for the next 7 days. Prominent ridging aloft and subtropical high pressure at the surface will continue to yield a rain-free forecast with well-above normal temperatures across the region through the weekend. Temperatures will continue to trend upward, with widespread upper 80s and low 90s expected starting Wednesday. In fact, low to mid 90s are expected by Friday. High temperatures could start to come within a few degrees of daily record as early as Tuesday, but the best chances of reaching records will come late this week and into the weekend (see Climate section below). The combination of well above normal temperatures and no rainfall will only serve to further worsen ongoing Extreme (D3) drought conditions highlighted by the US Drought Monitor. && .AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The 0Z TAFs will feature VFR conditions through much of the period. There is a potential for ground fog at KCHS and KJZI and MVFR fog at KSAV around sunrise Tuesday morning. The KSAV TAF will continue to highlight the fog potential with a TEMPO from 10-13Z. By Tuesday afternoon, guidance indicates that a sea breeze is expected to push across the terminals, following the sea breeze winds should shift from the south and increase to 10 to 15 kts. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR. && .MARINE... Through Saturday: Subtropical high pressure centered to the east will continue to drive persistent south to southwest flow across the local waters this week. Winds will mostly top out in the 10-15 knot range, with some daily local enhancement along the land/sea interface with the sea breeze circulation each afternoon and evening. Seas should stay within the 2-4 ft range through the period. Rip Currents: A Moderate Risk of rip currents continues for the GA beaches through this evening. Tuesday is expected to bring a Low Risk at all beaches. For Wednesday, slightly higher swell and slightly stronger winds are expected to result in a Moderate Risk for the SC beaches. This Moderate Risk for Wednesday could expand to the GA beaches as conditions should be similar. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: April 14: KSAV: 90/1922 April 16: KSAV: 92/1967 April 17: KCHS: 91/1967 KCXM: 86/2006 KSAV: 95/1967 April 18: KCHS: 92/1967 KSAV: 93/1967 April 19: KCHS: 91/1995 KCXM: 90/1917 KSAV: 92/1968 Record High Minimum Temperatures: April 19: KCHS: 66/1975 KCXM: 70/2002 KSAV: 69/1880 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$  878 FXUS64 KFWD 132308 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 608 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated storms may impact our far western counties through late evening with mainly a hail threat. - An active pattern will persist all week with storm chances and potential for strong to severe storms both Tuesday and Wednesday. - A strong cold front this weekend is expected to bring much cooler temperatures and dry weather for late weekend into early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 553 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms have developed along the dryline just to the west of our area this evening. This activity has generally struggled to maintain intensity and coverage likely owing to generally weak flow and veered low level winds. However, there is ample instability to continue to support a severe threat through the late evening. A few of these storms may clip our north and northwest counties, but the overall storm chances farther east toward the I-35 corridor are less than 10%. Weak forcing for ascent will persist through late evening, so we'll continue to monitor for any storm organization, but otherwise it should be a relatively quiet night across North Texas. Dunn && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 142 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Weak ridging aloft between the departing shortwave and the next western CONUS trough will maintain quieter conditions across much of Central Texas today, but a more favorable setup for isolated convection may evolve across parts of North Texas this afternoon and evening. Morning low clouds are already scattering across portions of western North Texas, and this increased insolation ahead of the dryline should allow for greater destabilization through the afternoon. At the same time, a subtle disturbance lifting out of northern Mexico will approach the dryline and provide a modest increase in ascent during peak heating. This combination should be enough to support isolated thunderstorm development late this afternoon and evening, with the best chances focused across our western North Texas counties including areas near the Big Country. PoPs have been increased across North Texas after 7 PM to account for this evolving signal. If storms develop and mature, steep lapse rates, moderate instability, and 40+ kt of deep-layer shear will support a few supercells capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. The main source of uncertainty will be storm coverage and eastward persistence tonight. While confidence has increased that at least isolated storms could develop near the dryline, it is still less certain how far east activity will survive as it encounters a more weakly forced and stable environment deeper into eastern North Texas. A low chance remains that one or two storms could persist into the I-35 corridor this evening, and if that occurs, an isolated strong storm would remain possible there as well. Otherwise, activity should remain scattered with most locations staying dry. Tuesday will then feature another warm and breezy day with the next, more organized round of storm chances holding off until later in the day and especially at night. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 142 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 The active pattern will take shape in earnest Tuesday night through Wednesday as the main upper trough lifts into the Plains and strengthens southwesterly flow aloft over the Southern Plains. Scattered storms developing along the dryline to our west Tuesday afternoon and evening may spread into our western counties Tuesday night, although confidence in coverage remains tempered by a stout cap and uncertainty in how long storms can survive as they move east. Even so, the environment would support a few strong to severe storms with large hail as the primary hazard, along with damaging winds and a low-end tornado risk if any discrete cells can persist into the richer low-level moisture. Wednesday still appears to offer the better chance for more widespread showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area as the trough axis shifts overhead and the dryline presses farther east. The main source of uncertainty will be any morning convection arriving from the west, as this could limit daytime destabilization and reduce the coverage and intensity of storms later in the day. If enough recovery occurs, moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear would again support organized convection capable of large hail and damaging winds, with the tornado threat increasing somewhat late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening as low-level flow strengthens. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible, though the greater concern at this time appears to be localized swaths of heavier rain rather than a widespread flooding setup. A relative lull in precipitation is expected Thursday as the midweek trough departs and weak ridging builds overhead. Attention then turns to the end of the week as another upper trough approaches from the west. Friday currently looks warm and more capped, which may limit convective development across much of the region despite a favored thermodynamic and kinematic environment on paper. As a result, daytime storm chances may end up even lower than the blended guidance would suggest. Better rain chances should arrive Friday night into Saturday as a strong cold front pushes south through the region. Current indications suggest the front will move through the Metroplex around daybreak Saturday before clearing Central Texas by the afternoon. While showers and thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the boundary, the severe weather potential appears limited for now as instability weakens with time. In the wake of the front, a much cooler and drier air mass will settle into the region for the latter half of the weekend with lows dropping into the 40s/50s and highs held into the upper 60s and 70s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 553 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 VFR prevails across the region at this hour with south winds 15 to 25 kt. These breezy southerly winds will continue through the day Tuesday. We'll continue to monitor convective potential through the late evening, with isolated storms generally expected to remain to the west of the major airports. MVFR cigs will overspread the region again tonight and persist into midday Tuesday before scattering out. Scattered thunderstorms are again expected along the dryline to the west on Tuesday and may impact parts of the D10 airspace late Tuesday night. Dunn && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1232 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 69 82 67 79 / 10 10 40 30 Waco 68 82 67 79 / 10 10 10 30 Paris 67 81 66 78 / 10 10 20 30 Denton 66 81 65 78 / 20 10 50 30 McKinney 68 81 67 78 / 10 10 40 30 Dallas 69 83 67 80 / 10 10 30 30 Terrell 68 82 67 80 / 10 10 10 30 Corsicana 69 84 69 84 / 10 10 10 30 Temple 68 83 67 81 / 10 0 20 30 Mineral Wells 67 82 64 80 / 20 10 50 30 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...Dunn  314 FXUS64 KOHX 132308 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 608 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 601 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 - Low to medium (<50%) rain chances through the afternoon, but amounts are expected to be light. Medium to high rain chances forecast again on Thursday (30-70%). - Continued unseasonal warmth through the upcoming week. Record highs are possible Tuesday and Wednesday. - Medium rain/storm chances this weekend along a cold front. No severe weather is expected at this time. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Tuesday) Issued at 1150 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A weak disturbance is passing through the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys currently and this is just enough for clouds and light rain across the Mid State. Amounts are very light, but this is certainly moderating temperatures. Rain activity will fade off mid to late afternoon with arrival of drier mid-level air. Tuesday will be another very warm day with ridging taking back over in the wake of the exiting shortwave. Ample sunshine and dry air will be in place with highs well into the 80s. We could approach records, in fact. The main concern tomorrow is continued fire weather concerns due to dryness, low RHs, and afternoon gusts 20-25 mph. Outdoor burning is highly discouraged. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday Night through next Monday) Issued at 1150 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Wednesday looks to be the warmest day of the forecast period with highs once again well into the 80s. The record of 87 degrees in BNA is in certain jeopardy. Thankfully we'll have another shot at rain and clouds on Thursday to help moderate temperatures. This disturbance appears to be more robust than the one moving through the area today which will provide better lift and overall moisture availability. PoPs and QPF have both increased, but this will also be another relatively light rainfall event that will no make significant drought improvements. And with the continued ups and downs, Friday into Saturday should be another brief period of warm, dry weather with synoptic ridging still in place across the Southeast. However, medium-range guidance is still consistent with a fairly potent upper-low and low pressure system moving through the Great Lakes Saturday night. A cold front is forecast to advance across Middle Tennesse bringing at least medium chances for rain and storms. I expect PoPs will continue to increase with this system. With the passage of the cold front, Sunday into early next week looks cooler as this trough/front passage looks to defeat the stubborn ridge in the region. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 601 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Lingering light showers will impact CSV over the next few hours, but the remainder of Middle TN terminals will remain dry through the period. SCT to BKN cloud cover around 15 kft will be in place tonight with relaxing southerly winds. Winds will shift southwesterly after 15Z with gusts 15-20 kts through Tuesday afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 65 87 64 86 / 10 10 0 0 Clarksville 67 87 66 86 / 10 10 0 0 Crossville 60 82 58 83 / 0 10 0 0 Columbia 64 87 61 86 / 10 0 0 0 Cookeville 62 82 61 83 / 0 10 0 0 Jamestown 60 82 59 84 / 10 10 0 0 Lawrenceburg 63 84 60 84 / 0 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 64 87 62 86 / 10 10 0 0 Waverly 67 87 66 86 / 10 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sizemore LONG TERM....Sizemore AVIATION.....Baggett  803 FXUS63 KEAX 132309 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 609 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...Updated 00z Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... * Active weather pattern continues with multiple chances for strong to severe thunderstorms, specifically Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday. * Warm temperatures (upper 70s to low/mid 80s) are expected to persist through the work week, with cooler and drier conditions expected this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 317 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 An active weather week is in store for the Plains and Midwest with Kansas and Missouri being no exception. Deep-layer southwest flow and theta-e advection has allowed temperatures to climb into the upper 70s and low 80s as of early Monday afternoon. A tight surface pressure gradient has also led to breezy conditions with sustained wind speeds ranging from roughly 15-20 MPH with gusts up to 35-40 MPH. There are two scenarios regarding tonight's activity (or lack thereof). The most likely (>90%) possibility is that no showers or storms are able to develop outside of a rogue elevated, non-severe shower/storm. Recent ACARS soundings from KMCI have continued to show a persistent capping inversion around 800mb, which would largely inhibit the development of strong/severe storms without a lifting mechanism in the vicinity. The second, much less likely possibility (<10%) is that an isolated storm could develop after encountering some forcing, or a storm is able to form further west where inhibition is more limited. With the amount of instability we have available, a storm that is able to overcome the barriers in place could easily become strong/severe. How long a storm would be able to fuel itself in such a heavily capped environment is another question which further reduces confidence in this occurring. Again, this remains a highly unlikely scenario but possible nonetheless. Warm temperatures will stick around on Tuesday with potential for showers and storms beginning late in the afternoon. A low pressure system currently over the southern California coast is progged to lift northeastward later today. As it does so, a lead shortwave will eject out ahead toward the Rockies. Lee cyclogenesis is expected to ensue with the resultant low moving into north central Kansas by early Tuesday morning. A dryline extending south from the cyclone and into Oklahoma and Texas will be important for storm potential locally. CAMs/Hi-Res guidance indicate convective initiation beginning along this boundary in Oklahoma and Kansas. Storms that develop will initially be discrete/semi-discrete before growing upscale into messy clusters and/or quasi-linear segments. Following mean southwest flow, storms would track northeastward; as such, storms that initiate off of the dryline further south and west would be expected to enter our CWA sometime late Tuesday afternoon or early evening. Locally, we look to possess an environment conducive to strong/severe convection: good instability (CAMs narrowing in on a window of >2000 J/kg of CAPE early tomorrow evening) as well as decent deep-layer shear and SRH. However, what we lack is a clear lifting mechanism nearby, and this will limit our chances for discrete convection tomorrow. If the dryline moves further east than currently forecast, or if a discrete storm from northern OK/southeast KS is able to sustain itself long enough without growing upscale, we would be posed with a greater tornado and hail threat. With no clear route for ascent and indications of at least some degree of a cap, though, we expect wind to be the primary/most widespread hazard with non-discrete convection. CAMs have also picked up on convective initiation in northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri late Wednesday evening as the LLJ ramps up; these storms would present a wind threat as well. There is still plenty of uncertainty regarding the evolution of the forecast tomorrow, much of it dependent on the placement of the dry line as well as the surface low. Severe weather potential exists on Wednesday, but the threat looks to be rather conditional, relying upon how the atmosphere is able to recover from the prior day's showers and storms. Model guidance keeps the CWA clouded in over the course of the day with some clearing in eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Overall, there is less instability to work with as well as more capping (at least per model depictions). Regardless, Thursday looks to be calmer, courtesy of mid/upper-level ridging. Strong southwesterly flow will continue to prevail, keeping us warm. Finally, severe weather chances return again on Friday. Deep southwesterly flow aloft looks to run over a moist, unstable airmass provided by daytime theta-e advection as another surface cyclone with an attendant cold front approaches from the leeside of the Rockies. As the cold front nears, storms could develop along or near it. Guidance suggests moderate instability and shear could be available for storms to tap into, though details should become clearer as we continue through the week. Following the passage of the cold front, high temperatures on Saturday could be 20-25F lower. While we will have to bid adieu to 80 degree temperatures for now, the weekend looks to be dry once remnants of showers and storms move out early Saturday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 605 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Between 00z and 04z this evening, the storms over east-central Kansas will continue to move northeastward and enter western Missouri. There is still uncertainty with how long these storms will last, but their presence this evening along with expected low-level jet have warranted placing PROB30 for TSRA into the KC metro terminals. The other story will be strong gradient winds and gust from the southwest that will continue through most of Tuesday. While Tuesday afternoon is expected to remain dry, another round of thunderstorms is expected late in the evening on Tuesday. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Macko AVIATION...Krull  548 FXUS66 KOTX 132309 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 409 PM PDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A robust cold front to deliver valley rain, mountain snow, and gusty winds Tuesday through Thursday. - Drier and warmer weather returns Friday into the weekend. && .SYNOPSIS... A cold front passage Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday will bring lowland rain, mountain snow, and breezy to windy conditions. Some snow will make it down to the lowlands Wednesday night into Thursday morning on the tail end of the mid- week system. && .DISCUSSION... Monday afternoon and evening: Monday afternoon and evening will feature breezy westerly winds through the Cascade gaps and across the Columbia Basin into the Central ID Panhandle. In addition to the winds, thunderstorm chances (15 to 25 percent) will linger over northeastern WA (north of a line from Rosalia to Wauconda) and across North ID. Thunderstorms will be widely scattered and short-lived, similar to what we've seen the past couple of days. The main threats with any storms that develop will be locally heavy rain, gusty and erratic winds, and pea- sized hail. Tuesday to Thursday: Low pressure drops southward from the Gulf of AK through this period, enveloping the Inland Northwest in colder air and bringing returning chances for precipitation. Rain and mountain snow chances increase through Tuesday as the low approaches, then stick around through Wednesday night (for the Cascades and Eastern WA) and through Thursday (for the ID Panhandle). The exception will be over Central WA where rain shadowing due to strong westerly flow aloft will keep PoPs lower, between 20 and 40 percent. Snow levels will start out between 3500-4500 feet (lowest near the Cascades) Tuesday afternoon, then will drop to between 1000-1500 feet by Thursday morning. Look for mountain snow and lowland rain to start, followed by a transition to a rain/snow mix or even all snow for some lowland areas overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning. Precipitation chances start to wane by then, but there will still be potential for some lowland accumulations during that time frame. The biggest snow impacts are expected over the mountain passes. Here are some 48-hour snow probabilities of 2 inches, 4 inches, 6 inches, 8 inches, and 12 inches from Tuesday morning to Thursday morning: 2 4 6 8 12 Stevens Pass 100% 100% 100% 75% 25% Snoqualmie Pass 100% 90% 80% 50% 10% Lookout Pass 98% 80% 55% 40% 10% Sherman Pass 75% 45% 25% 15% 1% The chance for 0.1 inches of snow at select lowland locations for Wednesday night into Thursday AM: Pullman 55% Sandpoint 60% Spokane 20% Winds will remain gusty through this Tuesday-Thursday period. Tuesday's winds will be southwest 15-20 mph with gusts of 25-40 mph. Winds turn more west-northwest Wednesday and Thursday, with similar speeds but gusts around 20-30 mph. Friday through Sunday: Conditions trend warmer and drier Friday into the weekend as a weak ridge of high pressure builds in behind the exiting low. && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFS: IFR to MVFR conditions for KGEG-KSFF-KCOE-KPUW will trend towards VFR this afternoon as precipitation shifts east. Gusty southwest winds will increase into the early afternoon in the Inland northwest gusting around 20-30 kt. There is a 10-20% chance of showers and thunderstorms from 00-03z for KGEG-KSFF- KCOE. Confidence is too low for thunderstorms in the TAF. Late overnight/early Tuesday the potential for some stratus develops for KGEG/SFF/KCOE/KPUW, generally 10-18Z. Shower chances return from the west to east between 18-00Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Moderate to high confidence in VFR conditions this evening; moderate confidence in MVFR conditions at KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW 10-18Z, with HREF showing around 60-70% chance. Low confidence in -tsra this evening at TAF sites. Better risk over the NE WA and N ID counties. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 37 51 38 47 30 49 / 10 40 90 80 40 30 Coeur d'Alene 37 51 38 45 30 46 / 20 50 100 90 60 60 Pullman 35 51 39 45 29 44 / 10 20 90 100 70 60 Lewiston 37 59 44 52 34 49 / 10 10 90 90 60 50 Colville 35 53 35 50 27 52 / 30 70 90 70 40 30 Z TAFS: IFR to MVFR conditions for KGEG-KSFF-KCOE-KPUW will Sandpoint 37 45 36 40 29 42 / 60 80 100 90 70 70 Kellogg 37 46 38 43 29 41 / 50 50 100 100 70 90 Moses Lake 37 58 40 55 31 57 / 0 20 20 40 10 0 Wenatchee 42 55 39 52 34 55 / 0 40 50 30 10 0 Omak 38 50 36 47 29 51 / 0 50 50 30 10 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 5 PM PDT Wednesday for Okanogan Highlands. Winter Storm Warning from 11 AM Tuesday to 5 AM PDT Wednesday for Western Chelan County. Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 5 AM PDT Wednesday for Western Okanogan County. ID...None. && $$  179 FXUS66 KOTX 132312 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 412 PM PDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A robust cold front to deliver valley rain, mountain snow, and gusty winds Tuesday through Thursday. - Drier and warmer weather returns Friday into the weekend. && .SYNOPSIS... A cold front passage Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday will bring lowland rain, mountain snow, and breezy to windy conditions. Some snow will make it down to the lowlands Wednesday night into Thursday morning on the tail end of the mid- week system. && .DISCUSSION... Monday afternoon and evening: Monday afternoon and evening will feature breezy westerly winds through the Cascade gaps and across the Columbia Basin into the Central ID Panhandle. In addition to the winds, thunderstorm chances (15 to 25 percent) will linger over northeastern WA (north of a line from Rosalia to Wauconda) and across North ID. Thunderstorms will be widely scattered and short-lived, similar to what we've seen the past couple of days. The main threats with any storms that develop will be locally heavy rain, gusty and erratic winds, and pea- sized hail. Tuesday to Thursday: Low pressure drops southward from the Gulf of AK through this period, enveloping the Inland Northwest in colder air and bringing returning chances for precipitation. Rain and mountain snow chances increase through Tuesday as the low approaches, then stick around through Wednesday night (for the Cascades and Eastern WA) and through Thursday (for the ID Panhandle). The exception will be over Central WA where rain shadowing due to strong westerly flow aloft will keep PoPs lower, between 20 and 40 percent. Snow levels will start out between 3500-4500 feet (lowest near the Cascades) Tuesday afternoon, then will drop to between 1000-1500 feet by Thursday morning. Look for mountain snow and lowland rain to start, followed by a transition to a rain/snow mix or even all snow for some lowland areas overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning. Precipitation chances start to wane by then, but there will still be potential for some lowland accumulations during that time frame. The biggest snow impacts are expected over the mountain passes. Here are some 48-hour snow probabilities of 2 inches, 4 inches, 6 inches, 8 inches, and 12 inches from Tuesday morning to Thursday morning: 2 4 6 8 12 Stevens Pass 100% 100% 100% 75% 25% Snoqualmie Pass 100% 90% 80% 50% 10% Lookout Pass 98% 80% 55% 40% 10% Sherman Pass 75% 45% 25% 15% 1% The chance for 0.1 inches of snow at select lowland locations for Wednesday night into Thursday AM: Pullman 55% Sandpoint 60% Spokane 20% Winds will remain gusty through this Tuesday-Thursday period. Tuesday's winds will be southwest 15-20 mph with gusts of 25-40 mph. Winds turn more west-northwest Wednesday and Thursday, with similar speeds but gusts around 20-30 mph. Friday through Sunday: Conditions trend warmer and drier Friday into the weekend as a weak ridge of high pressure builds in behind the exiting low. && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFS: IFR to MVFR conditions for KGEG-KSFF-KCOE-KPUW will trend towards VFR this afternoon as precipitation shifts east. Gusty southwest winds will increase into the early afternoon in the Inland northwest gusting around 20-30 kt. There is a 10-20% chance of showers and thunderstorms from 00-03z for KGEG-KSFF- KCOE. Confidence is too low for thunderstorms in the TAF. Late overnight/early Tuesday the potential for some stratus develops for KGEG/SFF/KCOE/KPUW, generally 10-18Z. Shower chances return from the west to east between 18-00Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Moderate to high confidence in VFR conditions this evening; moderate confidence in MVFR conditions at KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW 10-18Z, with HREF showing around 60-70% chance. Low confidence in -tsra this evening at TAF sites. Better risk over the NE WA and N ID counties. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 37 51 38 47 30 49 / 10 40 90 80 40 30 Coeur d'Alene 37 51 38 45 30 46 / 20 50 100 90 60 60 Pullman 35 51 39 45 29 44 / 10 20 90 100 70 60 Lewiston 37 59 44 52 34 49 / 10 10 90 90 60 50 Colville 35 53 35 50 27 52 / 30 70 90 70 40 30 Sandpoint 37 45 36 40 29 42 / 60 80 100 90 70 70 Kellogg 37 46 38 43 29 41 / 50 50 100 100 70 90 Moses Lake 37 58 40 55 31 57 / 0 20 20 40 10 0 Wenatchee 42 55 39 52 34 55 / 0 40 50 30 10 0 Omak 38 50 36 47 29 51 / 0 50 50 30 10 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 5 PM PDT Wednesday for Okanogan Highlands. Winter Storm Warning from 11 AM Tuesday to 5 AM PDT Wednesday for Western Chelan County. Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 5 AM PDT Wednesday for Western Okanogan County. ID...None. && $$  875 FXUS63 KGLD 132313 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 513 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Red Flag Warning is in effect for portions of northwest Kansas today, mainly south and east of Goodland where warm/dry conditions and SW winds at 15-25 mph w/gusts to 35 mph may lead to rapid wildfire growth this afternoon. - Fire Weather Watch for Tuesday for counties south of Interstate 70. Conditions will be dependent on the placement of a low pressure system. - Showers and some storms are forecast north of Interstate 70 late Tuesday afternoon through the evening. A rogue strong storm can't be ruled out. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 123 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Troughing for today has set up further south than what was being seen yesterday as a surface low across Nebraska wound up being further south which has inhibited the strength of the winds for today. Sustained winds of 10-20 mph remain forecasted but wind gusts with the weaker wind field may only support 25-30 mph gusts versus the potential for 40 mph that I was seeing yesterday. With the warm temperatures and humidity values in the upper single digits to low teens, despite the marginal winds will leave the Red Flag Warning in place. Overnight, strong 700-500mb vorticity is forecast to move across the area leading to an increase in mid level moisture. A cold front is also forecast to move in from the north as well which should help provide enough lift to lead to some sprinkles given the very dry air remaining at the surface. With the front an increase in dew points is forecast to occur as well across the north where some stratus and perhaps some fog may be possible as well. Tuesday, a low pressure system is forecast to develop which will send the cold front back north as a warm front. There still remains variability on exactly where the low will set up as the GFS,NAM and RAP all favor a northern location but the ECMWF ensembles and ECWMF AI keep the low further south. Similar to what was mentioned yesterday a further south low would limit the fire weather potential versus a further north would lead to greater coverage of fire weather potential. I did go ahead and issue a fire weather watch for locations south of Interstate 70 where if the northern track of the low did develop this is where the fire weather conditions should occur at. Also did issue to avoid confusion with any fire weather partners as surrounding offices do and have had fire weather products out. I do have concerns that the further south low scenario will pan out as there has been a subtle southern shift in guidance over the past 24 hours and that has been the trend with the systems in reality over the past 24 hours. Currently confidence is around 40- 45% for multiple hours of critical fire weather in the forecast area so just enough to warrant the Fire Weather Watch. Confidence has increased some in rainfall potential for northern portions of the area since confidence is increasing in the southern low scenario. Showers and storms are forecast to increase in coverage Tuesday evening as a 500mb jet stream puts northwest portions of the area in the left exit region of the jet and the increased lift within the developing low pressure system. A warm front should be along the Kansas/Nebraska line where guidance is suggest around 500 j/kg of CAPE which should be enough to lead to some thunderstorms developing. There is slim (less than 5%) chance of severe weather mainly in the form of damaging winds but with unstable lapse rates and very high shear if a updraft could sustain itself then large hail may occur as well. Wednesday, is forecast to be a little cooler on the backside of the low as winds are forecast to remain from the northwest; highs for the day are forecast in the 70s. After any lingering rain in the morning moves out drier air is again forecast to move in from the northwest but leading to perhaps marginal at best fire weather conditions across Yuma and Dundy counties, any rain from Tuesday may be enough to minimize fire weather concerns as well for at least one day. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 208 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Upper-level troughing appears to be favored across the Western United States Thursday morning. Lee cyclogenesis is favored to take place across the North-Central High Plains through the afternoon. Additionally, GEFS guidance suggests an 850-mb high pressure will exist across the Southeastern United States, and back into Mexico and Baja California. These two features look to establish southerly to southwesterly surface flow across the forecast region Thursday afternoon, yielding warm and dry conditions. Forecast highs are currently in the mid-70s to mid-80s, with relative humidities (RH) in the upper single-digits to lower-teens. Critical fire weather conditions may be a concern during the afternoon and evening hours, with wind gusts forecast in the 25-40 mph range across most of the CWA. NBM guidance suggests over a 40% chance for wind gusts to meet criteria for critical fire weather conditions across most locations in the forecast region, with over a 90% chance across portions of Eastern Colorado. Further, LREF guidance suggests over a 90% chance for RH values to meet criteria for the hazard across portions of Eastern Colorado and West-Central Kansas during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Higher end scenarios would be associated with a stronger central low pressure across portions of Eastern Wyoming and Montana, and the Western Dakotas. Confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed Thursday afternoon is currently highest for portions of Eastern Colorado, around 30%. The upper-level trough from the west looks to move across the forecast region Friday, pushing a surface low pressure across the Central High Plains eastward. A strong cold front is favored to begin traversing the forecast region sometime between the afternoon and evening hours. Critical fire weather conditions are possible ahead of the cold front, though a slower eastward progression of the surface low would be required. About 60% of GEFS and EC members are in line with a slower cold front, which could be associated with some critical fire weather conditions across portions of West- Central Kansas and East Central Colorado. However, the 40% of members that show a faster cold front would mitigate the risk across this zone. A freeze, along with some snowfall may also be experienced with this cold front. Current forecast guidance suggests low temperatures in the lower-20s to lower-30s across the forecast region Friday night, with a 40-55% chance of light snow across portions of Eastern Colorado, far Southwest Nebraska, and far Northwest Kansas. NBM guidance suggests a 30-45% chance for the snowfall to be measurable (>0.1 inches) across this zone, with over a 75% chance for sub-freezing temperatures across most of the forecast area Friday night (nearly a 100% chance across portions of West Kansas, far Southwest Nebraska, and Eastern Colorado). Cooler conditions may continue into Saturday, with forecast high temperatures in the mid-50s to mid-60s during the afternoon. Critical fire weather conditions may be experienced Saturday afternoon as well, though is highly in question considering the lower temperatures. LREF guidance suggests about a 40-60% chance for RH values to meet critical fire weather criteria Saturday afternoon across most of Northwest Kansas and Eastern Colorado. By Sunday morning, upper-level troughing looks to be fully off to our east, with upper-level ridging approaching from the Western United States. This pattern favors a return of warm and dry conditions through the end of the forecast period Monday afternoon. Forecast high temperatures are in the low to mid-70s and upper-70s to lower-80s Sunday and Monday respectively. Relative humidities may drop into the low to mid-teens both Sunday and Monday, but is currently more confined to Eastern Colorado, far Southwest Nebraska, and far Northwest Kansas on Monday, as GEFS guidance indicates that the 850-mb high across Mexico and Baja California may erode and allow a better moisture return from the Gulf of America. Forecast wind gusts in the 25-40 mph range both days may indicate further risks for critical fire weather conditions. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 511 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period with generally light winds and occasional mid and high clouds. There is a low chance, less than 20%, for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm at KMCK Tuesday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 123 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Tuesday continues to be a very tricky day when it comes to fire weather forecasting. Any fire weather potential will be based on the placement of a low pressure system. Majority of guidance continues to show further north positioning low which would favor multiple hours of fire weather conditions across Cheyenne (CO), Wallace, Greeley and Wichita counties. I do have concerns however of a southern low placement which would mitigate winds and critical fire weather conditions would not occur. Confidence is just barely at 40- 45% for multiple hours of critical fire weather across the watch area. For the potential for confusion for fire partners, if I was not surrounded by Red Flag Warnings I would have held off on the watch as I have been noticing southern trends which would be on par with what the ECMWF ensembles and ECMWF-AI has been hinting at for the past few days and systems the past few days as well have shifted features south which is what is hurting the wind across the Red Flag area today. If the northern positioning of the low were to occur then multiple hours of critical fire weather conditions would occur across the Fire Weather Watch area with wind gusts of 30-40 mph. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for KSZ027>029-041-042. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for KSZ004-015-016-028-029-041-042. CO...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for COZ254. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Trigg LONG TERM...Davis AVIATION...024 FIRE WEATHER...Trigg  629 FXUS64 KOUN 132314 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 614 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 611 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 - This week will continue to feature an active pattern with chances for showers and storms most days, some strong to severe. - Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will return several days this week, especially across portions of northwestern and far western Oklahoma. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 128 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Continue to watch eastward progression of the dryline, currently moving east across western OK. Although some uncertainty remains as to how far east it will go before retreating back west this evening. Several models have it running along I-44 across southwest into central OK then north along I-35 by late this afternoon. This is likely to be the focus for any convective development, however there appears to be a lack of strong convergence along with dryline this afternoon as well as a lack of strong mid-level forcing. Although there is a few minor disturbances in the flow that may aid in some isolated activity from central into southwest OK by late this afternoon. The best chance may be to our south with isolated storms moving north toward the Red River this evening before dissipating. However, any storm that does develop will be in a favorable environment for supercell thunderstorms. To the west of the dryline, and especially across northwest OK, where there continues to be a lack of any substantial rainfall to help the transition of the vegetation from dormant to green-up, Fire Weather concerns remain. A Reg Flag Warning continues this afternoon into the early evening hours for that area. As we go through the overnight, the dryline will retreat to the west with an increasing low level jet. Toward Tuesday morning could see uptick in isentropic lift to aid in the development of a few showers and storms, mainly across southern OK into north TX. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 128 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 For Tuesday a rather diffuse dryline will be located across western OK and western north Texas southward into southwest TX. To the west of this line very poor overnight RH recovery will set the stage for elevated to near critical fire weather conditions across northwest OK by late morning, continuing into the early evening hours. Very warm and windy conditions develop by late morning as RH values drop below 20%. Will continue with the Fire Weather Watch for Tuesday afternoon and evening. As for convection, after the morning activity dissipates, much of the day is expected to be dry before additional convection develops by late afternoon. At that time models try to tighten the dryline up across western OK and an embedded wave in the subtropical jet moves northeast across the area. This should be sufficient to get convective development along the dryline across western OK southward into western north Texas. CAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg and deep layer shear of 40-50kts should be sufficient for supercell storms capable of very large hail, damaging winds as well as a tornado or two. This activity will work north and east of the area by late evening. Some models do show another area of convection developing well south of the area, but may hold together overnight and move back into Oklahoma toward Wednesday morning. If this does occur, a few of the storms could be strong to low end severe. Main trough then shifts east across the Southern Plains on Wednesday. As this occurs a dryline will tighten up across western OK and western north Texas with a Pacific front entering northwest OK by afternoon. Although some questions remain with regards to how the morning convection may impact afternoon development, but pockets of moderate instability and favorable shear would be sufficient that any storms that do form to become severe. Severe risk may linger across the eastern third, including our southeast OK counties, overnight. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 206 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Brief height rises in the wake of the shortwave Thursday may provide a break from storms. However, with another trough digging into the western CONUS, southwesterly flow will quickly return Thursday night and an increased sub-tropical jet may bring late night showers and storms. As the next shortwave ejects eastward towards the Plains, showers and storms will return again Friday into Saturday morning. A cold frontal passage by Saturday will bring an end to shower and storm chances for next weekend as it scours the moisture and the flow aloft becomes more zonal. Timing of the next wave may change and trends in timing will continue to be monitored. Fire weather conditions may persist through the end of the week and into the weekend, especially where fuels continue to remain driest in western Oklahoma and into western north Texas.&& .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1104 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026 MVFR conditions are currently observed spreading north/west this evening. These conditions are anticipated to lift by mid-morning Monday. LLWS is a concern late tonight and again tomorrow night. Will be monitoring the marginal risk of severe storms that are possible tomorrow afternoon and evening. Thus far, there is significant uncertainty on storm development and have left out of TAFs for now. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 611 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 VFR/MVFR ceilings this TAF period. Storms that developed earlier are currently expected to miss the TAF sites although if one site would be affected this evening it would likely be KSPS. Showers/storms will be possible again starting late Tuesday afternoon. LLWS is expected to develop at several TAF sites later this evening/overnight. Winds will back to the S this evening and then be from the S and SW Tuesday remaining breezy overnight into Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 67 83 63 79 / 20 50 60 70 Hobart OK 65 87 61 84 / 10 50 50 50 Wichita Falls TX 67 84 64 82 / 20 50 80 60 Gage OK 60 89 56 83 / 0 20 30 20 Ponca City OK 68 87 62 80 / 10 40 50 70 Durant OK 68 81 66 78 / 20 30 50 80 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004-005-009- 010-014-021. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for OKZ004-005-009-010-014-021. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....23 AVIATION...25  464 FXUS64 KLCH 132316 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 616 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 80s for a majority of the area, with some low 90s possible. - Next good chance for showers and thunderstorms comes in next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Sunday) Issued at 107 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Midday surface analysis shows high pressure situated off the East Coast, providing a light to moderate onshore flow across the forecast area. Aloft, ridging is situated across much of the eastern CONUS as well. Temperatures will warm into the mid 80s this afternoon beneath partly cloudy skies, while overnight lows fall into the mid to upper 60s. Both surface and upper level ridging will continue to dominate the forecast area as we move through the work week, bringing about a rather repetitive forecast. Highs will continue to warm into the mid to upper 80s, while overnight lows fall into the mid to upper 60s. While no rainfall is expected through the work week thanks to ridging aloft, moisture will continue to pool over the region. We may begin to see some fog issues during the late night/early morning time period later this week, as winds start to relax a bit. Otherwise, hot and dry conditions prevail. By the end of the week, parts of CENLA are expected to reach 90 degrees for the first time this year, feeling much more like summer than mid-spring. Moving into the weekend, a pattern change arrives as a upper level trough diving across the Plains sends a cold front southward and through the forecast area. Frontal passage is expected to occur late Sat into early Sun, and will be accompanied by showers and storms. Still too early to determine if we will see any severe weather with this convection, but if that were to occur it would likely be through the overnight hours Sat. Behind the front, a brief shot of cooler and drier air arrives making for a very pleasant end to the weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 608 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Scattered clouds are located across central Louisiana and southeast Texas. Through the evening conditions will be VFR with high clouds. Winds will be from the south around 10 to 15 knots through the forecast period. && .MARINE... Issued at 107 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 High pressure draped across the southeastern US will maintain a moderate southeasterly flow across the Northern Gulf for the next several days with seas remaining consistently between 2-3 feet over the nearshore coastal waters and 3-5 feet over the outer coastal waters. No convection is expected until late in the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 107 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Southerly winds will continue to be breezy mainly in the afternoon to evening hours over the next few days. Relative humidity values will slowly increase through the week as moisture continues to be transported in from the Gulf. Little to no chances for showers are likely during the work week, however rain chances increase this weekend with an incoming cold front. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...17 AVIATION...14  420 FXUS61 KALY 132317 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 717 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Minor update early this evening to account for low topped convective showers that have developed along a wind shift boundary south of Albany. Will mention widely scattered showers in this area until just after sunset when coverage should wane considerably. 07 && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Isolated strong to potentially severe thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening threaten to bring strong to locally damaging wind gusts that could lead to isolated downed trees and/or power lines, power outages, and property damage. 2. The threat for impactful weather is low from Wednesday through the end of the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Tomorrow will bring the potential for isolated to highly scattered strong to locally severe thunderstorms as the cold front approaches and stalls across or just north of our northern zones. Still within the warm sector of the aforementioned low, southerly to southwesterly flow will force continued moisture and warm air advection to help initiate and then maintain destabilization. Though upper-level forcing for ascent is weak, there is an embedded shortwave within the zonal flow aloft that will send a weak vorticity maximum through the region tomorrow afternoon. This should help to increase upward ascent as weak surface waves propagate off the boundary. Maximum SBCAPE values on the order of 500-1000 J/kg and isolated, local maximums up to 1500 J/kg will align with steepening mid-level lapse rates and high DCAPE to threaten strong to locally damaging wind gusts as the primary hazard resulting from any severe thunderstorms. This is ultimately what drove the Marginal Risk for severe weather across much of our area from SPC. At this point, the CAMs are still highly varied in their depictions of the coverage of severe storms given the lack of a distinct frontal passage in the lower levels and upper trough aloft. That said, the orientation of the 1 and 6 km shear vectors indicate a cellular storm mode to start with a potential merging or clustering of cells as the event draws onward. SPC HREF ensemble paintball plots seem to indicate the most agreement in individual cells occurring across portions of the Hudson Valley with potential cluster or borderline linear segments developing over the Southern Adirondacks and possibly in the Mid-Hudson Valley and western New England areas. The HRRR seems to be the most representative of this solution at this time so we erred on that element of guidance when developing the forecast. That said, potentially expansive cloud cover amid a moist environment could be a limiting factor to storms becoming severe tomorrow. KEY MESSAGE 2... Above normal temperatures are anticipated throughout much of the remainder of the week and into the weekend with additional rounds of showers and potential thunderstorms as weak shortwaves pulse along the northern periphery of a building ridge in the south. A Marginal Risk for severe weather was just introduced for portions of the Eastern Catskills for Wednesday where an isolated severe thunderstorm with strong to isolated damaging wind gusts cannot be ruled out. However, for the most part, the overall probability of impactful weather Wednesday through the weekend is low given the low severe weather threat and the low amount of rainfall that will not pose any hydro concerns. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 00z Wednesday...VFR conditions will prevail this evening. There are widely scattered -SHRA in the KPSF to KPOU corridor, but will not result in conditions lowering so will mention a VCSH at these sites. With an increase in low level moisture, there is the potential for fog at KGFL late tonight if sufficient clearing can develop. Will mention MVFR vsby for now with low confidence in IFR. Upslope clouds may develop at KPSF by around 06z, with cigs expected to be at MVFR levels. These lower clouds should dissipate Tuesday morning. SHRA/TSRA will become likely Tuesday afternoon associated with a frontal system. There is low confidence in timing/coverage as of now, so will mention PROB30 for TSRA with gusty winds and potential IFR/MVFR conditions. Winds will initially be westerly around 5-12 kt early this evening, becoming variable less than 5 kt tonight. Outlook... Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures(Year Set): Tuesday April 14: Albany: 89(2023) Glens Falls: 84(2023) Poughkeepsie: 91(2023) Wednesday April 15: Albany: 86(2003) Glens Falls: 84(2003) Poughkeepsie: 84(2003) Thursday April 16: Albany: 91(2012) Glens Falls: 89(2002) Poughkeepsie: 91(2012) && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...12 AVIATION...07 CLIMATE...07  615 FXUS62 KILM 132318 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 718 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes from the previous forecast with this update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Dry weather and above normal temperatures will continue through the end of the week. 2) A cold front expected to arrive next Sunday will bring a low chance of showers and a cooler airmass early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry weather and above normal temperatures will continue through the end of the week. A 500 mb ridge centered across Florida should expand northward over the next couple of days, leading to sustained dry weather and above normal temperatures across the Carolinas. At the surface, Bermuda high pressure will maintain a warm south to southwesterly surface wind direction. The beaches will remain considerably cooler than inland areas due to onshore flow and daily seabreezes off water temperatures still in the 60s. High temperatures in the 80s each day through Sunday have a reasonably good chance of exceeding 90 degrees inland Friday and Saturday, both days when models suggest the upper ridge will be at its strongest across the eastern Carolinas. There should be too little deep moisture present during the passage of an upper disturbance Thursday night for any rain chances to develop. In addition, increased fire danger is possible starting Wednesday. Wind and relative humidity will be marginal, but coordination with state forestry agencies is expected throughout this week with the extremely dry weather continuing. Record highs within 2 degrees or being tied/broken later this week: Wilmington: Friday Apr 17 record high is 89 from 2006. Florence: Thursday Apr 16 record high is 90 from 2006, and Saturday April 18 record high is 93 from 1981. Lumberton: Friday Apr 17 record high is 91 from 2006, and Saturday Apr 18 record high is 91 from 1941 KEY MESSAGE 2: A cold front expected to arrive next Sunday will bring a low chance of showers and a cooler airmass early next week. The latest GFS, Canadian, and ECMWF are in good agreement showing a strong upper trough moving eastward through the Great Lakes on Sunday, April 19. Height falls ahead of this feature should flatten the Southeast U.S. upper ridge early next week. Given the orientation of the flow ahead of the trough there's only a very limited potential for Gulf inflow ahead of the its passage on Sunday. A surface cold front should move across the eastern Carolinas sometime Sunday, accompanied by what looks to be our only non-zero precipitation chances over the coming seven days. Even then we're only talking about a 20 percent chance Sunday afternoon and evening. Three-week rainfall totals of 0.2 to 0.6 inches are only 10 to 30 percent of normal values. Six month rainfall is 9 inches below normal in Wilmington and almost 11 inches below normal in North Myrtle Beach. Ongoing drought, currently classified across our portion of the Carolinas as D1 (moderate drought) to D2 (severe drought) could worsen in the weeks ahead. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR will prevail through 0z TAF period. There is a chance for brief early morning fog development, but confidence is lower compared to last night due to slightly lower moisture and a bit stronger winds. Have kept any restrictions out of the TAFs. Intermittent high clouds through tomorrow. Light southerly winds overnight turn southwesterly Tuesday morning. Sea breeze will turn winds southerly with gusts 15-20 kts Tuesday afternoon as inland temps reach into the upper 80s. Extended Forecast...Predominantly VFR through the week due to high pressure. Only exception could be some MVFR or even IFR fog heading into sunrise each morning. && .MARINE... Through Tuesday... Bermuda high pressure remains in control with predominantly SW winds in place. Light SW winds overnight will increase into Tuesday afternoon with the seabreeze. Winds will become more southerly ~13-18 kts. Seas will be largely 2-4 ft with an increasing southerly wind wave in the afternoon and a long period ESE swell, 2-3 ft at 10 seconds. Tuesday Night through Saturday... Not much change in the marine forecast for the rest of the week with dry weather and the S to SW wind direction continuing, with speeds varying from around 10 kt during the mornings to as much as 15-20 kt nearshore during the afternoons and evenings due to daily seabreezes. 2-3 ft seas will consist of an east-southeasterly 9-10 second swell plus local 4-5 second wind waves. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM KEY MESSAGES...ILM DISCUSSION...ILM AVIATION...VAO MARINE...MAS/LEW  893 FXUS63 KILX 132319 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 619 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - The stretch of warm weather is expected to last through at least Friday, with daily temperatures climbing into the upper 70s and lower 80s, with mid 80s likely on Tuesday and Friday. Breezy south to southwest winds, occasionally reaching 25-35 mph, will accompany this warm period this week. - This week will be riddled with thunderstorm potential. Tuesday afternoon and evening, Wednesday afternoon and evening, and Friday night into Saturday morning currently exhibit the highest probability (15-30%) of severe weather. - There is also potential for substantial accumulative rainfall throughout the week, with our multi-model ensemble predicting a medium (40-60%) chance of exceeding 2 inches through Saturday in areas along and north of I-72. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A subtle mid level short wave lifting ne has scattered convection ne of I-74, with a few strong to severe storms ne of Pontiac with hail where unstable air mass (MUCAPES over 2000 j/kg) and steep mid level lapse rates with 30-40 kt bulk shear values. SPC day 1 update has marginal to slight risk from I-72 north this afternoon for mainly large hail, though the better risk of severe storms appears to have passed ne of CWA at mid afternoon. Still could be a few isolated strong to locally severe cells north of I-74 next few hours for mainly hail chances. Latest CAMs do not show much convection over CWA tonight through early Tue afternoon. Our next best chance of convection will drop down from WI and northern IL into northern CWA during Tue evening and into more of central IL overnight Tue night into Wed morning. SPC Day2 outlook has Marginal risk along and north of I-70 for late Tue afternoon and Tue night, with slight risk along and north of I-72 and enhanced risk far northern CWA north of a Galesburg to Henry line. Areas north of Peoria are outlook for more significant risk of larger hail 2 inch or bigger and EF2 or stronger tornadoes. The 10% or higher risk of tornadoes (EF2 or stronger) just just north of Knox and Stark counties. Very warm highs 82-87F on Tue with moist dewpoints in the 60s and breezy SSW to SW winds gusting to 30 mph. Will be approaching record highs in upper 80s in a few locations Tue and again Friday. The main cold front is nw of IL much of this work week. Surface low pressure ejects ne into the upper MS river valley late Wed afternoon and brings the cold front se into central IL during Wed night. Will likely see a round of showers/thunderstorms along and ahead of this front Wed afternoon into Wed night. SPC Day3 outlook has marginal to slight risk of severe storms Wed afternoon/evening, with the slight risk nw of the IL river. Highs Wed in the upper 70s/lower 80s, with mid 80s far se IL by Lawrenceville. Models differ with convection chances on Thu as Ecmwf keeps high chances of showers/thunderstorms on Thu while NAM mainly has pcpn in southeast IL and GFS and GEM in between. NBM keeps fairly high pops around Thu though severe risk looks low. Thu night and Fri morning looks drier/lull in convection chances. Deepening mid/upper level trof over the Rockies last this week to eject stronger storm system into the Midwest by Fri night into Sat with passage of a stronger cold front. This will likely be our next best chance of convection Fri night into Sat and could be risk of strong to severe storms too, though not in an official SPC outlook yet during this time frame. Much cooler air arrives Sat night and Sunday behind front with highs Sunday 55-60F and lows Sat night in upper 30s/lower 40s and mid to upper 30s Sunday night. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 618 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Low pressure currently over western IA will track across southern WI overnight. A moderately strong S/SW gradient will remain in place across central Illinois ahead/south of this feature, with gusts in the 20-30 kt range much of the period, albeit more sporadically so overnight. As diurnal cumulus develops Tuesday mid morning, a brief window of MVFR ceilings may occur, especially at PIA/BMI, though confidence is currently too low to include in the TAF. Otherwise we'll have to continue to monitor for some isolated shower/storm potential this evening and again Tuesday afternoon/evening, though low coverage precludes any mention in the TAF. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...07 DISCUSSION...07 AVIATION...Deubelbeiss  326 FXUS64 KJAN 132319 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 619 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Limited fire danger will continue today. - Drought conditions continue to increase across the region due to prolonged dry weather. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 110 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Tonight through Sunday...The main impacts during this forecast period will come Tuesday in the form of some potential for patchy dense fog across namely Southeast Mississippi early in the morning and some continued "limited" fire weather concerns from late morning through the afternoon, Thursday as a disturbance moves through the Mid-South, and over the weekend as a frontal boundary is advertised to push through the CWA. Otherwise, strong high pressure aloft will continue to meander over the central and eastern Gulf of America. This, while high pressure at the surface centered off the coast of the Carolinas, remains wedged into the Deep South from the east. The combination of the two will continue to promote overall quiet conditions and above normal warmth across the forecast area through much of this forecast period. On Tuesday, with increased moisture, mild conditions, and light to calm winds early in the morning, some patchy dense fog is possible across mainly Southeast Mississippi. This will quickly begin dissipating after sunrise. Come late morning and afternoon, some fire weather concerns will persist across the area given the dry fuels from the ongoing drought and breezy southerly winds. Afternoon minimum relative humidity values will again mix into the 35-45% range, especially across eastern portions of the area where they'll hover more in the 35-40% range. Despite the increased humidity levels and greening vegetation, this "limited" fire danger threat for Tuesday will again primarily be driven by the aforementioned breezy winds and very dry soil conditions. Just the combination of these two could lead to some increase in wild fires across the area and the potential for even monitored open burning to potentially get out of hand. There will be a slight increase in rain chances across northern portions of the forecast area on Thursday. While the remainder of the CWA will remain dry, a shortwave lifting northeast across the Mid-South region could spark some isolated showers and storms across mainly the Highway 82 corridor during peak heating hours Thursday afternoon. Any convection that develops during this time, will quickly dissipate in the early evening as day time heating wanes. Finally, a better chance for showers and isolated storms currently exists across the entire forecast area Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. This is as a result of a stronger shortwave that's advertised to push a cold front east into and through the region late Saturday afternoon into early Sunday. While any rain chances are much appreciated and welcomed, unfortunately this front will be in the process of weakening as forcing lifts out to the northeast. This looks to keep the better rain chances during this timeframe across western and northern portions of the forecast area. Therefore, the upcoming weekend is by no means looking to be a washout. However, some relief from the above normal warmth and humid conditions is being advertised for the forecast area on Sunday. /19/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 614 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 VFR flight conditions with southerly winds ranging from 5-15kts Another round of stratus is expected to move in to the HBG area tonight dropping conditions to MVFR with some potential for LIFR/IFR until an hour or two after sunrise. All other times and sites will remain benign and VFR. /OAJ/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 62 85 61 85 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 58 85 57 85 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 63 86 61 86 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 60 85 59 86 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 63 86 61 84 / 0 0 0 10 Greenville 66 86 65 86 / 10 0 0 0 Greenwood 65 87 63 86 / 10 0 0 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ 19/19/OAJ  109 FXUS65 KPIH 132320 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 520 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light snow in the central Idaho mountains north of Mackay and Galena Summit - Much heavier rain and snow begins Tuesday night and continues through Thursday night. Snow returning to Snake River plain and eastern Magic Valley on Thursday morning. - Windy to very windy Tuesday night through Thursday afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1247 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Tonight through Thu afternoon...A weak upper level trough is triggering some light showers and the persistent northwesterly flow is finally bringing colder temperatures back to eastern Idaho. Light snow ends prior to midnight except for the northern half of the ID-WY border, where it continues light snow through Tue afternoon. Then after midnight Tue night, a more vigorous and moisture- laden snow storm arrives and continues over the area into the extended period. Very high likelihood of precipitation, the main forecast problem will be the snow levels and how much of the area will have heavy snow. Right now, most of the Winter Weather Advisories will be in the highlands and mountains, but it would not take much colder air to produce Winter Storm Warnings. This first weak storm has enough cold air behind it to send Snake River plain and eastern Magic Valley temperatures below freezing, as in 20 to 30 degrees tonight. The second storm arrives very quickly on the heels of this storm, and temperatures have no chance to recover. Overnight lows will be slightly warmer, but still widespread 24 to 34. This is due to the second storm's cloud shield. Wed night is also sub-freezing for most, with temperatures down 1 to 3 deg F from the night before. High temperatures will still allow snow melt on Tue and Wed, but mountain locations on Thu afternoon will struggle to get above freezing. This cold front on Wed also packs some wind, currently expecting the wind to reach Advisory level for at least the Arco Desert- Mud Lake region, perhaps more locations. Wind is even stronger on Thu. So, overall, this may be one of the stronger winter storms we have had all season. Thu night through next Mon. By Thu night the snow is limited to the eastern half of the forecast area. Fri continues to see some light snow in higher elevations in the east and southeast highlands. It appears the storm clears out for the weekend, with Sun morning the next low starts affecting Custer County and the western edge. Temperatures behind this front are bitter for this time of year. Single digit lows in the central Idaho mountains, and lows in the Snake River plain/eastern Magic Valley in the lower to middle 20s. Not time to plant your garden yet. The temperatures bottom on Thu night and Fri night, then rebound to staying in the lower to middle 30s by Sat night due to cloud cover from the next incoming low. The warming trend continues through the weekend and Mon is where temperatures level off. This is due to the next low moving through the northern half of the forecast area and dropping rain and high elevation snow. Wind takes a while to turn calmer. Fri continues breezy to windy, then Sat is when it is more light to breezy. Afternoons continue breezy to borderline windy (20-25 mph) through the weekend and into Monday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 516 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Will have periods of rain and snow showers at DIJ with reduced visibility and MVFR ceilings at times through 04Z. Expect some MVFR ceilings to develop late night at PIH, IDA, BYI and DIJ but should lift quickly after sunrise. Will have widespread VFR conditions Wednesday afternoon. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Messick AVIATION...GK  929 FXUS65 KTFX 132321 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 521 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Aviation Section Updated. .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated mountain snow and lower elevation rain showers this afternoon and evening. - Gusty winds along the Rocky Mountain Front Tuesday and Wednesday. - A spring storm late Wednesday through Thursday brings impactful mountain snow, with lower elevation snow Thursday. - Drier and milder conditions move in for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... /Issued 232 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026/ - Meteorological Overview: A small closed low tracking across Idaho through Southwest MT, will keep isolated mountain snow and lower elevation rain showers through the rest of the day today. Weak instability will allow for isolated thunderstorms to develop, but any storms that do develop will remain weak. There will be a break in precipitation Tuesday before the next incoming trough moves through. Increasing westerly flow aloft will allow for some cross barrier flow to move into the Rocky Mountain Front. Gusty winds develops as a result along the Rocky Mountain Front Tuesday through Wednesday morning. A deepening trough from the British Columbia coast begins to move into the Pacific NW Wednesday. Mountain snow with lower elevation rain moves into the region along with breezy winds. A Pacific cold front sweeps across the region beginning late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Strong cold air advection along the front will crash snow levels down to the lower elevations, allowing for some accumulating snow Thursday. Temperatures will also be well below normal Thursday. Snow lingers through the day Thursday before this system exits. Northwest flow Friday keeps isolated rain/snow showers. An upper-level ridge builds in for the weekend, which will bring drier and milder weather besides for a few terrain driven showers. - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: Winds Tuesday and Wednesday: Peak mid level flow looks to move through Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Though this peak 700mb winds look to pass through quickly. Therefore, it will be difficult for high wind warning criteria winds to materialize, but it will still be windy along the immediate Rocky Mountain Front Foothills (55-65 mph). Snow Mid Week: Models show this trough splitting into two waves. This pattern is favoring the bulk of the moisture to Southwest MT. There's a 50-90% chance for 0.5" of moisture for Madison and Gallatin Counties Wednesday through Friday morning, and up to a 60% chance for 1" in the mountains. There is strong cooling aloft with this cold front passage late Wednesday and Thursday will quickly drop snow levels to lower elevations. Frontogenesis and weak CAPE along the front poses a risk for convective snow banding/squalls in Southwest MT. The combination of good moisture and strong forcing gives a 40-60% chance for 9" of snow for Raynolds and Targhee Pass, and along Highway 191 between Big Sky and West Yellowstone. One area to watch will be for the Gallatin and Madison River valleys. Forecast soundings show a rapid change from rain to snow along the front, and heavy snow rates combined with this front moving through at night time can quickly accumulate snow in those valleys. So far there's a 20-50% chance for 6" of snow for the Bozeman/Gallatin Gateway area and Highway 287 in Madison County. Wet moderate to heavy snow can pose a risk to the infrastructure as well. We will continue to monitor impacts in that region. Precipitation amounts across North-Central MT is lower, so probabilities for snow is less. There's a up to a 30-60% chance for 1" of snow at lower elevations. However, depending on how the northern wave of the split trough tracks, the Hi-line could see higher moisture amounts (low confidence). Snowfall amounts for the Continental Divide and Central MT mountains look to be more minor at passes. There's a 60-80% chance for 4" of snow at Marias and Kings Hill Pass and a 30-50% chance for 6". -Wilson && .AVIATION... 14/00Z TAF Period Isolated showers continue through the evening across the region. It is hard to pin point where these showers will develop, therefore it was kept out of some of the TAF sites for now. Dry weather moves in overnight and into Tuesday. Breezy west/southwest winds develop across the region late Tuesday morning. -Wilson && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 38 58 42 59 / 20 0 0 30 CTB 36 53 33 54 / 20 0 0 10 HLN 35 61 38 58 / 20 10 0 60 BZN 31 61 35 60 / 20 0 0 60 WYS 24 47 27 45 / 50 10 10 80 DLN 29 57 35 56 / 20 0 0 50 HVR 37 64 38 62 / 30 0 0 10 LWT 34 60 36 58 / 20 10 0 50 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls  975 FXUS64 KLZK 132322 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 622 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 201 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 -Well above normal temperatures likely through Friday -Occasional chances for showers and thunderstorms will be in the forecast through Saturday -Expected QPF through the period remains low and will not greatly benefit short and long term rainfall deficits in place -A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from mid-week through Saturday, with the main focus across portions of northwest Arkansas && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 201 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible today as some weak shortwave energy traverses the SW flow aloft. Much of this activity will be seen from southwest to central to eastern portions of the state during the afternoon hours, with N/NW Arkansas likely remaining dry. Similar to yesterday's forecast, did lower POPs given expected coverage. Dry conditions will be seen on Tuesday across the state as the H500 ridge over the Gulf expands northward a bit. Well above normal temperatures are expected on Tuesday and through much of this week. Rain chances will increase Wed-Wed night, especially across northwest Arkansas as a stronger H500 shortwave trough lifts northeast from the Four Corners toward the Great Lakes. With the mid- level ridge persisting to the southeast, precip will struggle to expand eastward across AR Wed night through Thursday. But, with this trough being stronger than recent systems the ridge may retreat enough to allow meaningful precip to move across the state. There will be some potential for strong to severe thunderstorms during this timeframe, but the main focus looks to be across far northwest Arkansas and areas just to the west and north. A more robust H500 shortwave trough should move east across the middle of the country Fri-Sat. With a strong cold front at the sfc expected to accompany this system, more widespread precip is expected during this timeframe. In the wake of the trough, N-NW flow aloft will be in place and sfc ridging will build in from the NW. This will provide cooler temperatures by late weekend into the beginning of next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 619 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A low VFR ceilings will continue over the area with isolated rain showers over SW Arkansas for the new few hours. The clouds will dissipate overnight, but a MVFR ceiling will fill in late overnight into the early morning hours along the I35 corridor. This will impact most sites, outside of northern Arkansas with MVFR Ceilings, and possibly some IFR ceilings over HOT/ADF area around sunrise. Winds will stay out of the S-SW with gusts off and on through the evening, then steady tomorrow afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 68 84 67 84 / 10 10 10 20 Camden AR 63 85 62 84 / 10 0 0 10 Harrison AR 68 83 66 77 / 10 20 40 60 Hot Springs AR 64 82 63 82 / 10 10 10 20 Little Rock AR 66 84 66 84 / 10 10 0 10 Monticello AR 65 86 64 85 / 10 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 65 81 64 79 / 20 10 20 30 Mountain Home AR 68 84 66 80 / 10 20 20 50 Newport AR 68 85 67 85 / 10 10 0 10 Pine Bluff AR 65 86 64 85 / 10 0 0 0 Russellville AR 67 84 65 81 / 10 10 20 30 Searcy AR 65 85 64 84 / 10 10 0 10 Stuttgart AR 67 85 66 84 / 10 0 0 10 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...99 AVIATION...BARHAM  374 FXUS63 KLSX 132322 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 622 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday night and again Wednesday afternoon into evening. The better chance for severe weather exists on Wednesday. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats each day. - A potent cold front will pass through the region late this week, bringing another chance for strong to severe thunderstorms and an end to the unseasonable warmth. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tuesday Night) Issued at 157 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Water vapor imagery shows an upper-mid level longwave trough over the northwestern third of the CONUS with an upper-low level ridge dominating the remainder of the country. The Mid-Mississippi Valley's weather is being influenced by the northwestern portion of ridge as seen by strong, deep southwest flow throughout the atmospheric column. We're seeing this at the surface in the form of temperatures in the 80s, which is 20 degrees above normal for mid- April. Gulf moisture is also being advected in along the southwesterly flow, as characterized by dewpoints in the 60s. Needless to say, there is an abundance of warmth and moisture in the region. This translates to an abundance of instability as well, which leads us into Tuesday and Wednesday's severe potential. The bottom line for Tuesday is that the potential for severe thunderstorms in our area is low. Despite being located within an open warm sector and an 80% HREF probability of having 2500+ J/kg of SBCAPE in place, a strong capping inversion is expected to keep convective initiation at bay through the afternoon. A lack of any forcing or mid and upper level lift supports at least mostly dry weather as well. Instead, supercells are expected to fire off a dryline in Kansas southward through Texas in the afternoon and become severe as they drive northeast. By the time they reach central Missouri in the evening, daytime instability will be quickly waning and CIN quickly growing. If the mass of thunderstorms is still severe by the time it arrives, the increasingly unfavorable environment it moves into will ensure it won't stay severe for long. If any thunderstorm does remain severe, large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats. A strengthening low-level jet Tuesday night will keep ongoing convection from eroding completely and/or spark new initiation. None of this is expected to be severe, but it may impact the potential for severe thunderstorms on Wednesday especially if it lasts well into the morning. Jaja && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Next Monday) Issued at 157 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 By 1pm Wednesday, the longwave trough currently over the western CONUS will be centered in the High Plains. A jet streak will extend northeastward through the Southern Plains and into the Great Lakes region, skimming our CWA along its extent. Though the best upper level forcing will exist to our northwest, we'll still be in the right entrance region of the jet streak and will be able to take advantage of the more robust upper level support. The same can be said in the mid-levels where forcing increases ahead of an incoming shortwave. In the low-levels, a surface cyclone will be pushing northeast from Nebraska into the Upper Midwest, dragging a cold front into northwestern Missouri to serve as forcing for ascent. This will all make for a much better set-up than Tuesday. The only potentially mitigating factor will be instability. More specifically, how well the boundary layer will recover after Tuesday night's/Wednesday morning's low-level jet driven convection. The latest LREF shows only up to 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE in place by 1pm. This is a much lower value than Tuesday's 2500+ J/kg, but with so much support at all levels, it shouldn't matter. Effective bulk shear will also be in the 35-45 kt range, which is more than enough to support severe weather even given the lower instability. Shear vectors are forecast to be about 45 degrees off of the cold front. This may result in discrete thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds initially before congealing into a line or multi- cell mass. Minor shifts in the bulk shear vectors may change storm mode drastically. More than 45 degrees and supercells will be favored. Less than 45 degrees and a QLCS will likely develop faster with damaging winds being the primary threat. As mentioned, thunderstorms will weaken in the hours after sunset. Two mid-level shortwaves, one in the Upper Midwest and another in the Mid-South, will pass Wednesday night into Thursday, and another low-level jet will ramp up along and ahead of the cold front. These features will offer continued support for ascent, and will keep non- severe convection going until the Mid-South shortwave exits late Thursday. The cold front is not expected to clear the area entirely, but will instead buckle northward as a warm front late Thursday. A lack of cold air behind the front will make its passage and return basically unnoticeable as highs reach the widespread upper 70s and low 80s again Thursday. A much more potent cold front will drive through the region late Friday/early Saturday and will bring a real rush of cool air into the area. Although there's still uncertainty regarding how cool we get, the NBM 75th percentile high temperature forecast for KSTL on Sunday is only 71 degrees. There is another chance of thunderstorms on Friday ahead of the cold front with severe weather possible again. The potential for severe weather will rely on the timing of the cold front, which at this point is still very uncertain. Jaja && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening) Issued at 622 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Breezy conditions will continue through tonight with gusts more prevalent from KCOU/KJEF northeastward through KUIN. There is a brief duration overnight when gusts may subside. If this occurs, LLWS may need to be considered in later updates/amendments. Gusts subside around the metro terminals, though all terminals will experience sustained wind at or above 10 knots through tonight. VFR conditions persist through the end of the period with gusts returning to all terminals late Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon. A showers or two is possible, but most will stay dry given the isolated nature of coverage. A better chance for thunderstorms arrive around/after 00z Tuesday evening, mainly at KCOU/KJEF. This was not added to the TAF at this time provided timing uncertainty. This potential will be covered in the next full update, as better chances of showers and thunderstorms arrive after 00z tomorrow night. Maples && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX  102 FXUS63 KPAH 132324 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 624 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Record or near record warm temperatures are forecast Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday...with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s pretty much all week. - Best rain chances come Wednesday night-Thursday and again next weekend. Storm total average rainfall amounts with each round aggregate in the 0.25-0.75" range. - A marked cooldown closer to seasonal averages with high temps in the 60s and low temps in the 40s will settle in for next Sunday-Monday, after the storm system completes its passage this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1200 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 There are two primary targets of opportunity with our high pressure ridge dominated forecast. The first is Wednesday night-Thursday, when ripples in the steering flow pass overhead and introduce a chance of showers/storms. Then again the coming weekend, as the main synoptic body makes passage. These will offer best storm and heavier rain chances, though at this writing, severe storms are not in the outlook. Average storm total qpf for Wednesday night-Thurdsay is in the 0.25-0.75" range for most of our CWA. The main near term focus is on record or near record high temperatures the next two days, with our highs forecast in the mid 80s. Records are: TuesdayWednesday PAH 87 (2006)88 (1977) EVV 86 (2010)86 (2024) CGI 86 (1992)87 (1992) POF 89 (1925)88 (1936) MDH 85 (2010)87 (2024) Each day will feature warm/breezy south to southwest winds that assist in the warm run. After a transitional Thursday, we're right back to record warmth Friday, which may offer our earliest 90F max temp on record, if we can over-achieve just a little on our forecast mid-upper 80s highs. Another 0.25-0.75" QPF forecast is in store for the weekend storm system passage as well, and after its passage, much cooler and seasonal air will arrive to begin the new week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 618 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 VFR conditions expected through the end of the period. Left over scattered-few low level day time cumulus will continue to erode overnight. Some mid level cloud cover will continue streaming through the area overnight. Tomorrow morning will see a return of some of that lower cloud cover which will give way to high cirrus during the afternoon. Winds will continue to be slightly elevated overnight with sustained winds of 9-13 kts out of the south and southwest. Winds will continue to be breezy and gusty tomorrow as well. Expect gusts to around 20-25 kts with a few possible 30 kts in there. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION... AVIATION...HICKFORD  100 FXUS65 KPUB 132325 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 525 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Critical fire weather conditions expected tomorrow, and again Thursday. - Snow showers expand in coverage tonight across the mountains and persist through Tuesday. - Additional storm system arrives for the end of the week, bringing cooler temperatures and additional precipitation chances. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 101 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Tonight: Monday night brings active weather for some and quieter weather to others as a storm system approaches south central and southeastern Colorado. A trough will be approaching the region overnight, bringing an increase in both forcing and moisture. With orographic forcing rising, and the uptick in moisture, snow showers are expected along the mountains, with the greatest coverage of snow along the San Juan Mountains given more favorable wind orientation. While the valleys are anticipated to remain dry, some spillage across the valleys can't be ruled out, especially for the upper Arkansas River Valley. Elsewhere, dry conditions are expected. Overnight temperatures will remain above seasonal values with at least weak downsloping winds in place and some cloud cover. With that said, the plains will fall into the 40s, with pockets in the upper 30s, the valleys into the 30s, and the mountains into the upper 10s to 20s. Tomorrow: Heading into Tuesday, active weather continues, with snow for some and fire weather concerns for others. The aforementioned trough will be pushing over south central and southeastern Colorado during this period, though will be shearing out/weakening as it does so. Even so, forcing will remain heightened. While forcing will remained heightened, moisture will start to lessen, especially across the plains as a dry slot advects across this localized area. With that all said, snow showers will persist along the mountains, though will start to lessen in coverage during the later part of the afternoon as the moisture decreases. Dry conditions continue to prevail elsewhere. The exception to this may be across the Pikes Peak region where spillage of showers off the higher terrain will be possible as the trough pushes eastward. Any precipitation from these showers would be minimal at best though, as dry air at the surface limits subcloud layer rainfall. In addition to all of that, fire weather will be a concern across the plains. As winds increase from diurnal mixing, and that aforementioned dry slot starts pushing into the area, conditions are expected to become favorable for fires, with winds gusting to 40 mph and humidity values tanking to around 13 percent. Looking at temperatures, another warm day is in store for the region as downsloping winds develop. Highs for the plains will rise into the upper 60s to low 80s, the valleys into the 50s, and the mountains into the upper 20s to 40s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 101 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Tuesday Night - Wednesday: For the midweek timeframe, a brief period of quieter weather is expected for south central and southeastern Colorado. The wave from Tuesday will be exiting the area Tuesday night and east by Wednesday. With forcing and moisture decreasing on the backside of the wave, lingering showers across the mountains Tuesday evening are expected to dissipate overnight, with dry conditions then prevailing areawide through Wednesday. Along with that, additional showers can't be ruled out along the Palmer Divide as a weak cold front is pulled southward early Tuesday evening, though confidence in shower development is low (20-30%) at this time. Beyond all of that, breezy, though lighter, winds are anticipated, with partly cloudy skies Tuesday night becoming mostly clear through Wednesday. As for temperatures, values will be more seasonal overnight, and slightly above seasonal highs for Wednesday, even despite the cold front passage Tuesday evening. Thursday - Sunday: For the rest of the long term period, active weather makes a return to south central and southeastern Colorado. Synoptically, another trough will approach the region Thursday, push across Friday through Saturday, with ridging returning for Sunday. Overall, confidence is medium to high (60-70%) in this broader pattern, but there are still finer details that will need to be ironed out in the coming days. Regardless though, this pattern may bring another day of fire weather conditions Thursday as winds increase ahead of the system. Then for the end of the week and start of the weekend, precipitation chances increase, especially for the mountains. There is even potential for snow at lower elevations, though this is one of those finer details that is still a bit murky at this time, and should become more clear over the next 2 to 3 days. Dry conditions then return for the end of the weekend areawide. Beyond all of that, winds will remain breezy, especially Thursday and Friday, with at least partly cloudy skies expected. Temperatures during this period will fluctuate a bit, with above seasonal values Thursday, then cooling significantly Friday and Saturday as the storm system passes, and then slowing warming again Sunday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 519 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. Strong southwest flow aloft is over the region and will remain over the region during this period. Gusty southwest winds will last until about 02 UTC this evening then decrease. Winds will crank up after 15 UTC tomorrow and will be quite strong during the afternoon; 30-40 knts from the southwest. There is a very low chance of a passing shower tomorrow, especially at KCOS and KALS. There may be some brief periods of haze due to some possible blowing dust due to the strong southwest winds. Shortly after this forecast period ends, a cold front will cross each taf site. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ220>222- 224>237. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Tuesday for COZ227>237. && $$ SHORT TERM...SIMCOE LONG TERM...SIMCOE AVIATION...HODANISH  375 FXUS64 KLUB 132326 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 626 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 623 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 - Fire weather concerns today and again on Tuesday west of a dryline. - Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms, some severe, are possible Tuesday through Friday, mainly off the Caprock. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A quiet afternoon was well underway after yesterday's round of spotty storms. Regional obs at noon showed the dryline was becoming better defined from just east of Childress down to Lake Alan Henry, but this shallow moisture will soon depart our forecast area ahead of breezy SW winds and deeper mixing. Although background ascent is largely muted this afternoon in SW flow, convective temps and/or any stronger dryline circulations could promote very isolated storms just S-E of Stonewall County. A richer and deeper influx of gulf moisture ensues tonight all the while the dryline retreats to near a Brownfield-Lubbock-Silverton line. Sizable CAPE above the nocturnal inversion looks difficult to tap into given neutral ascent in this layer, but we'll keep a sliver of 20 PoPs in/around Stonewall County overnight as a few CAMs support elevated convection with assistance from a 40 knot LLJ and modest isentropic ascent. NBM's PoPs were too generous in coverage and amounts overnight, so these were scaled lower. Tuesday's dryline is likely to mix off the Caprock and stall somewhere in our eastern zones thanks to thicker moisture and backed winds unfolding in the moist sector. These more southerly surface winds are in response to pressure falls farther west preceding an upper trough. As this trough lifts across the Four Corners on Tuesday, southwest winds at 500 mb tick up from about 40 knots today to 65 knots by noon Tuesday in concert with steady height falls. A fair bit of mid and high clouds will accompany this stronger flow, but should not hinder convective temps much as the EML is not progged to strengthen much, if any. So the pros outweigh the cons for a more active dryline Tuesday afternoon off the Caprock. Severe prospects, including a few supercells, are in play given up to 2000 J/kg of SBCAPE embedded with 40 knots of 0-6 km bulk shear. One positive consideration is that storm modes will be swift to the northeast which should keep our severe concerns limited to the first few hours following initiation. West of the dryline, another breezy and very warm afternoon awaits. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Any remaining convection across the Rolling Plains late Tuesday night should be well east of the FA by sunrise Wednesday. The dryline will remain over the eastern Rolling Plains by sunrise Wednesday before pushing eastward as an upper shortwave trough moves over the region. This should help to keep most if not all convection east of the FA Wednesday afternoon and evening. An upper low will travel from the Pacific Northwest Wednesday southeastward to the Central Rockies by Friday morning. A surface lee low is progged to develop ahead of the upper low/trough late Thursday, allowing for breezy conditions to develop area wide. This will be further enhanced as a cold front begins pushing southward Friday afternoon and evening as the upper low/trough pushes eastward towards the Central Plains. A dryline is expected to precede the cold front, with the cold front moving south of the FA by late Saturday morning. Both the dryline and cold front are expected to be dry at this point, though critical to near extreme fire weather danger will be possible behind the dryline due to windy and dry conditions. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 623 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Relatively strong southwest winds will continue for a few more hours this evening before weakening slightly after sunset. Some transient LLWS is possible overnight mainly at KCDS, but with magnitudes expected to be too weak for TAF mention. Surface winds will then increase once again by mid-morning Tuesday. Some MVFR stratus will also likely develop Tuesday morning, but should remain south of the TAF sites. VFR is expected to prevail otherwise. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A critical fire weather danger continues through 8 PM this evening for the far southwest TX Panhandle and northern South Plains. Southwest winds here of 20 to 25 mph with some gusts near 40 mph will push RFTIs up to 4 and 5. A bit less wind for Tuesday will support similar fire concerns for the same areas while locations off the Caprock face chances for afternoon and evening storms. A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for portions of the South Plains and far southern TX Panhandle on Tuesday afternoon and evening. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>024- 027>029. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for TXZ021>031-033>036-039-040. && $$ SHORT TERM...93 LONG TERM....51 AVIATION...30  318 FXUS64 KAMA 132326 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 626 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 - Elevated to critical fire weather conditions expected today through Friday due to breezy/gusty winds combined with dry conditions. Gusts 30 to 40 mph with RH values in the teens. - An isolated severe storm cannot be ruled out in the far east to southeastern TX Panhandle Tuesday afternoon into evening. - A potentially strong cold front late Friday is expected to follow another critical fire weather day Friday afternoon. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Southwest flow aloft over the FA can be seen on GOES water vapor imagery at this time. Upstream is a mid to upper level trough axis running from central CA up into western MT. Until this trough reaches the combined Panhandles on Wed, southwest flow will continued to bring some high level moisture from the Pacific while upper level winds induce leeside lows over eastern CO and western KS. The surface lows are expected to bring breezy sustained southwest winds and drier air to the surface with lower Tds in the upper 20s to lower 30s. This means critical fire weather conditions are expected today and tomorrow, as afternoon temperatures reach into the 80s and drop RH values into the teens. Today, winds are not expected to gusts higher than maybe 40 to 45 mph. However, tomorrow as H7 winds increase with the approaching trough, the probability for a gust of 50 mph increase to around 10 percent in the far northwest. Mainly from Texline to Boise City. With the mid to upper moisture seen in the water vapor imagery, it is reasonable to agree with current CAMS that try to produce some very light returns both today and tomorrow. For today, mainly expecting some potential virga showers over the central to western Texas Panhandle. Tomorrow, a potential dryline in the eastern combined Panhandles, mainly the TX Panhandle, is expected bring a slight chance for thunderstorms. There is some uncertainty to the position of the dryline and whether it will retreat back into the TX Panhandle after exiting. If a storm does pop and mature would not rule out a severe threat for large hail and damaging winds. A potential for a tor will increase further east and south of the TX Panhandle. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A mid to upper level trough over CA is expected to arrive in the Panhandles come Wed. This means lower afternoon temperatures in the mid 70s to the northwest, with limited mid 80s in the SE TX Panhandle are expected for Wed afternoon. A surface low just to the north will eject off to the northeast towards western IA Wed afternoon. This is expected to allow the pressure gradient to relax with Wed seeing the calmest winds this week. Elevated fire weather conditions are still expected as westerly downsloping surface winds bring Tds down into the 20s. While surface winds are only expected to be topping out around 15 mph, RH values are expected to drop to around 8-10%. Upper level ridging is expected to return for Thu and Fri, with Fri being under the leading edge of the next upper level trough. Afternoon highs are expected to reach back into the 80s with continued dry air at the surface with minimum RH values dropping out in the 5-10% range. Critical fire weather conditions return as the surface pressure gradient steepens once again causing 20+ kt sustained winds out of the southwest. As the next upper level trough swings into the Rockies and approaches the Great Plains Friday, upper level winds are expected to increase. In turn, winds are expected to be a bit higher on Friday than Thu. Right now the NBM introduces a 10-15% probability of wind gusts exceeding 50 mph in the northwestern Panhandles Friday afternoon. Any potential wildfires that may be occurring Friday afternoon will also, be under the threat of a potentially potent cold front that will bring in windy north winds and changed fire progression to the south. Also, there may be a dryline impacting the far eastern Panhandles with a slight chance for severe storms ahead of the cold front. With this expected cold front, a nice break with the 80s degrees should occur over the weekend with NBM highs being in the 60s for Saturday and 70s for Sunday. However, really low Tds in the single digits are expected. Therefore, RH values are still expected to tank into the teens with at a minimum elevated fire weather conditions being present. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 618 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 VFR conditions are expected throughout the 00Z TAF period at all TAF sites. Winds will be out of the southwest at 15-25 kts with gusts to 30 kts at times. Winds will then dissipate to 10-20 kts sustained past 06z. Winds will then pick up past 14-15Z to 20-30 kts sustained with gusts near 40 kts at times, especially at KDHT. Skies will remain mostly clear. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Continuous dry conditions especially in the central to western combined Panhandles will combined with RH values in the teens tomorrow, single digits Wed onward. Twenty-foot winds are expected to be at the very least 20 to 25 mph for Tuesday with gusts around 35 to 45 mph. As a result an RFTI's of 4 to 6 are expected for much of the combined Panhandles. The exception being the far eastern Panhandles that may be on the moist side of a dryline where a slight chance of thunderstorms exist. Winds are expected to fall off Wed to around 15 mph (20ft). However, RH values are expected to drop to as low as 8 percent as Tds drop off under westerly, downsloping winds. Afternoon temperatures may be cooler in the 70s but due to the Tds dropping off the RH is expected to be lower than today and tomorrow. Therefore, expecting at a minimum, elevated fire weather conditions. Thursday, winds pick back up again to near 20 mph with RH in the single digits. This will lead to an RFTI around 4 to 7. With the higher end of these values being located in the northwestern combined Panhandles. Friday, an approaching upper level system is expected to bring even higher winds for Friday. With a 5 to 10 percent chance for gusts up to 50 mph. The fire weather conditions Friday, west of a dryline feature, will prelude a potentially potent cold front that will bring a wind shift to the north with breezy and gusty winds Friday night. Areas in the western combined Panhandles are looking to have RFTI values in the 6 to 8 range. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>020-317. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for TXZ001>020-317. OK...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001>003. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for OKZ001>003. && $$ SHORT TERM...03 LONG TERM....03 AVIATION...29  319 FXUS64 KSHV 132326 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 626 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1200 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 - Showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon across much of the ArkLaTex. - There will be a chance for more needed widespread rainfall during midweek and along the cold front arriving on Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1137 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Surface high across the northeast gulf and a low across the Central Plains will maintain an increased pressure gradient across the ArkLaTex today allowing for southwest winds from 10 to 15 mph this afternoon. Southwest flow at all levels will maintain continued Pacific moisture advection allowing for mostly cloudy skies areawide. A decaying convective complex translating northeast across north Louisiana will serve as the catalyst for convection later today across much of the ArkLaTex. Precipitation to diminish this evening with lingering cloud-cover to persist overnight with temperatures forecast to fall into the mid 60s. Overall pattern to remain nearly unchanged through Tuesday. With limited low-level forcing to ignite convection, most of the region to remain precipitation free throughout the day. Highs are forecast to climb into the 80s with portions of northeast Louisiana possibly approaching 90 degrees. An upper-low will swing east across the Midwest on Wednesday evening. Convergence ahead of the trough will enhance the mid- level jet above an already moist and unstable airmass in the vicinity of a weak surface low across Oklahoma. Showers and thunderstorms ongoing across central Oklahoma on Wednesday morning to swing east across the I-30 corridor during the day. Some storms could possibly produce strong gusty winds and small hail during the time of peak heating. Next impactful weather event will occur late Friday night into Saturday as a frontal boundary moves southeast across the region. Widespread rainfall can be expected through much of Saturday across the ArkLaTex. High pressure building behind the front will allow for an overall shift in the weather pattern with dry conditions to prevail through the remainder of the weekend into Monday along with much cooler temperatures ranging from highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s. /05/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 618 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 For the 14/00Z TAFs, very isolated remnants of early evening showers are dissipating at this hour, with BKN and SCT lower VFR CIGs improving somewhat, giving way to a mix of mid to high level clouds which which will persist through much of the night. As daybreak approaches, another round of MVFR and IFR CIGs will descend on area terminals, gradually lifting and breaking into the day tomorrow. South winds will continue throughout at maximum sustained speeds of 7 to 12 kts, with gusts of up to 20 kts possible. /26/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1240 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Spotter activation should not be needed through tonight. /15/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 66 86 65 86 / 0 0 0 10 MLU 65 88 63 88 / 10 0 0 0 DEQ 62 82 62 80 / 10 10 20 40 TXK 67 86 66 85 / 10 0 0 20 ELD 63 86 61 85 / 10 0 0 10 TYR 68 84 67 84 / 0 10 0 20 GGG 66 84 66 84 / 10 0 0 10 LFK 66 85 66 85 / 0 0 0 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...05 AVIATION...26  017 FXUS64 KBRO 132327 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 627 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 611 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Key Messages: - Breezy days continue through the week, with gusts up to 20-30 mph likely each afternoon and early evening. - A moderate risk of rip currents continues through at least Tuesday afternoon and is likely to prevail through most of the week. - A gradual warming trend increases temperatures to around 5 degrees above average, or warmer, by the end of the week. - The next chance of unsettled weather, associated with a mid/upper level trough and cold front, arrives this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 140 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 After a week or two of unsettled weather across Deep South Texas, we’ll return to a more spring-like or summer-like pattern this week with near to above normal temperatures, rain-free, and breezy conditions region wide. Persistent low level southerly to southeasterly flow will maintain warm and humid conditions as mid to upper level southwesterly flow aloft prevails with upper level troughing over the western US. Weak embedded disturbances may traverse along the flow aloft, but will likely remain north of Deep South Texas and result in rain-free conditions. Otherwise, expect daily highs to range from the upper 80s and low to mid 90s and lows in the low to mid 70s. Unsettled weather returns once again this weekend as an upper level trough and attendant surface features translate across the Plains. A cold front is expected to track across Texas heading into the weekend, and may approach Deep South Texas late Saturday or Sunday. In combination with high moisture content and diurnal instability, expect low to medium (20-40%) rain chances region wide Saturday night into Sunday. Details will continue to be ironed out over the next several days as certainty increases. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 611 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 While VFR conditions will prevail early evening, after 2/3Z ceilings will fall with MVFR conditions at all aerodromes. Winds will remain somewhat elevated overnight with breezy conditions expected on Tuesday. && .MARINE... Issued at 140 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas will prevail through the end of the week over the Gulf waters and Laguna Madre. A locally enhanced pressure gradient will likely result in Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions each day along the Laguna Madre and nearshore Gulf waters. Otherwise, expect rain-free conditions through the end of the weekend. Low rain chances return this weekend with an approaching cold front. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 73 86 73 87 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 70 88 69 89 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 74 91 74 92 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 72 92 72 92 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 73 79 74 79 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 71 85 71 85 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...22 LONG TERM....22 AVIATION...68  438 FXUS63 KAPX 132328 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 728 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Ongoing flooding may worsen with additional rain and storms tonight. Highest rainfall expected south of M-72. - Severe thunderstorm chances tonight and again Tuesday evening/Tuesday night with primary hazards of damaging winds and large hail. - Additional rounds of rain and mild temperatures through this week before turning cold late this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 450 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Pattern Synopsis: Southwest mid/upper-level flow will remain draped across the heart of the CONUS through the middle of the week as embedded waves progress trough the main flow. In turn, boundaries laid across portions of the Great Lakes and Midwest will wave north and south across the region as rounds of convection work through. A more amplified shortwave will progress overhead during the second half of the week, followed by brief ridging Friday before a strong, late- season trough digs across the Great Lakes this weekend. Forecast Details: Primary forecast concern in the short term is expected widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms tonight and their impact on ongoing flooding across much of northern Michigan. Current confidence based on latest high-res guidance and radar trends is that storms current firing across portions of Wisconsin will mature and work across the lake south of our area, working to limit higher rainfall potential to a degree across portions of our area. This is due to limited transport/support for an additional line of storms that is expected to form across southern Minnesota and track across the lake into northern Michigan later this evening and tonight. While this will provide our widespread rain/storm chances, expectation is that many areas will be limited to around 0.5-1" of additional rainfall as opposed to much higher amounts with a stronger line of storms working across our area. The exception will potentially be areas south of M-72, and especially south of M-55. Our far southern counties have the best chance of seeing rainfall amounts in excess of 1"+ with the potential for localized amounts of 2"+ should strong storms track across that area. Regardless of amounts, additional rainfall tonight will exacerbate ongoing flooding across the area -- the magnitude/widespread nature of which is impressive for the Northwoods. Specifically, the Au Sable River near Red Oak and the Manistee River near Sherman are forecast to go into major flood stage shortly this afternoon/evening. A few strong storms, especially across far southwest portions of the CWA, will be possible later this evening and tonight. The primary hazards with any strong storms will be damaging winds, large hail, and low chances for a tornado. Additional severe storms will be possible Tuesday evening into Tuesday night with similar hazards possible. Looking ahead, additional rain chances and mild temperatures will continue through the end of the week into this weekend. The aforementioned strong trough will likely tank temperatures late this weekend back down into the 30s and 40s for highs on Sunday with overnight lows in the 20s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 725 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Another round of showers/embedded thunderstorms and MVFR to IFR producing low cigs/areas of mist expected to develop this evening. While showers end early Tuesday, low clouds and mist will take until late morning and afternoon to lift/scour out. Some gusty winds and brief periods of heavy rain are possible with any stronger storms tonight. Otherwise, winds will remain light. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for MIZ016>018-020>036- 041-042-086>088-095-096-099. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DJC AVIATION...MSB  437 FXUS62 KCAE 132328 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 728 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Previous forecast remains on track, so just an update for 00z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1. Well above average temperatures, along with dry weather conditions, will continue into next weekend. - 2. Limited chance for rain on Sunday, but rainfall would be light and short-lived. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Well above average temperatures, along with dry weather conditions, will continue into next weekend. Not much has really changed in regards to the expected hot and dry conditions this week and into the upcoming weekend. Upper ridge will be in control through Thursday before weakening slightly Friday as an upper trough passes off to our north. Airmass remains too dry for any chance of seeing rainfall, so a dry forecast remains. Behind that exiting trough for the first part of the weekend, upper ridge builds back in with some of the warmest temperatures of the period possible Saturday. Through Saturday, near record highs will remain possible each day, and multiple days at or above 90 degrees F are likely by mid-week and into the weekend. Key Message 2: Limited chance for rain on Sunday, but rainfall would be light and short-lived. Cooler temperatures possible Sunday onward. Models are showing a small chance for a brief shower on Sunday as another upper level system moves off to the north of the forecast area. At the surface, the upper trough will at least be strong enough to push a cold front into and eventually through the area Sunday into Sunday night. Slightly better moisture could move in ahead of this front, allowing for a slight chance of seeing some light rainfall as it moves through. The best chance for seeing this appears to be over the central/northern Midlands Sunday afternoon, with the southern Midlands and the CSRA potentially remaining dry with this front. The front will be strong enough though to bring slightly cooler temperatures back across the region starting Sunday afternoon and into Monday. Highs in the 70s could be possible on Monday. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions prevail through the period. High cirrus continues to pass atop the forecast area, with dry air dominating at pretty much every other layer of the atmosphere. Winds have begun to die down from where they were earlier and are expected to continue to fall towards calm overnight. A strong low-level jet is expected to develop overnight on the order of 20 knots or so, which should keep most fog and stratus at bay (in addition to the dry airmass in place). The one exception is at OGB/AGS where ground fog is typically a problem & was yesterday. Given the airmass has changed very little, expect it to be another problem at those sites as high clouds clear the area. Tomorrow, the low-level jet will quickly mix down to the surface with 10-12 knot winds expected for a few hours between 14z and 18z. Look for winds to slowly diminish again as the day goes along. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...High pressure to dominate through the upcoming week, the chance for widespread restrictions remains low. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...7 AVIATION...PL  237 FXUS65 KCYS 132329 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 529 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Red Flag Warnings continue for areas east of the Laramie Range through 8PM today due to gusty winds and dry conditions. - Scattered rain and snow showers in Carbon and Albany counties late tonight into Tuesday morning may result in a few slick spots along the I-80 corridor and accumulating snow above about 8500 feet in elevation. - A strong but compact system will bring a chance for rain to the High Plains, mainly Tuesday afternoon and evening. - Warmer and drier weather returns for Wednesday and Thursday, bringing elevated to critical fire weather conditions and marginally high winds in the wind prone areas. - A potent weather disturbance will produce windy, colder and wetter weather for Thursday night and Friday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Warm and dry conditions remain over the area once again today. Breezy to windy conditions are producing widespread critical fire weather conditions. Current GOES water vapor imagery shows a messy synoptic weather pattern across the western CONUS. At least three disorganized upper level lows are circulating over the area. As each of these features traverses east, we will have a complex setup heading into Tuesday. The main player will be the nearly closed low currently over southern California which will move off to the northeast over the next 24 hours, but this will get interference from another upper level low currently over the northern Rockies. Upper level moisture will increase from the southwest, supporting a few virga showers this afternoon and evening. As moisture aloft improves, these will be more likely to reach the ground especially after midnight or so. Look for rain and snow showers to spread across Carbon and Albany counties into Tuesday morning. Snow levels will start out between 6500 and 7500 feet, supporting a rain snow mix along I-80 between Cheyenne and Rawlins. Due to the pre-dawn timing, there could be some light accumulations and slick spots in these areas with daybreak Tuesday, but conditions should improve quickly with the strong April sun. The higher peaks will also benefit from much better orographic lift. Above 10,000 feet or so, probabilities for 6" or more of snow are around 50 to 65%. This could warrant a low end Winter Weather Advisory, but opted to pass on this due to the marginal totals confined only to the highest peaks. Still, travelers in the mountains should prepare for some areas of snow and slick conditions Tuesday morning. Further east, a southwest to northeast oriented low-level convergence boundary is expected to kick off elevated shower activity, but it will be harder to overcome the dry boundary layer east of the Laramie Range. Still, PoPs in the 15 to 40 percent range are present over the area. Surface winds will be all over the place on Tuesday, but speeds should be fairly light with the possible exception of the I-80 corridor between Laramie and Sidney where east to southeast winds may be gusty at times. Heading into Tuesday afternoon, the approaching upper level low will support lee-cyclogenesis over northeast Colorado. The morning convergence boundary supporting the shower activity will get pulled into the strengthening system as it moves off to the northeast. Models show fairly potent mid level frontogenesis as this occurs, and a very narrow TROWAL developing by Tuesday evening as the system departs. The main uncertainty is where exactly this occurs. The overall system will be extremely compact, such that a difference in 50 to 100 miles in the exact location of lee cyclogenesis could mean the difference between beneficial rainfall and nothing at all for the High Plains. In addition to the synoptic forcing, a few hundred J/kg of CAPE are expected to be present, so some isolated embedded thunderstorms will be possible. The most likely scenario tomorrow evening will be a band of moderate rainfall traversing from west to east across the area, with potential for localized areas receiving over 0.25" of rainfall. There are still a few ensemble members (and the deterministic GFS) that keep the forcing for rainfall entirely south of our area, but model consensus is for this to occur somewhere likely south of a Wheatland to Chadron line. Overall confidence is pretty low in precipitation amounts and location, but there will be a high ceiling too due to the strong but narrow forcing and plentiful mid to upper level moisture. Light rain may continue after midnight, but we should be done with this system by Wednesday morning. Ridging will rebound over the area on Wednesday into Thursday, resuming the mild and dry weather pattern that has dominated this season so far. Look for temperatures around 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal averages on Wednesday, climbing closer to 15 degrees above average for Thursday east of the Laramie Range. Expect breezy westerly flow on Wednesday, which will turn southwesterly on Thursday ahead of the next system diving into the Pacific northwest. Widespread elevated to near critical fire weather conditions will be present both days. In addition, we will need to watch for another round of marginally high winds. The wind prone areas have approximately a 30 to 40% chance for high winds on Wednesday. As the flow turns more southwest Thursday, this will decrease to around 10 to 20% for the I-80 summit and Bordeaux areas, but increase to around 50 to 60% for the Arlington and Elk Mountain areas. This may also extend a little further west than usual, perhaps into the Rawlins area. LREF median 700-mb winds are around 45 knots over Rawlins Thursday morning, which gives probabilities around 50 to 60% here as well. As is typical with southwest flow, we will also have to watch Converse county, which currently has a 30% chance for seeing high winds on Wednesday night and Thursday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Thursday night-Friday...A progressive and sharp trough aloft and its associated cold front move from Idaho and Utah Thursday evening, to western Wyoming late Thursday night, with the cold front passing our counties Thursday night. The trough axis aloft tracks across our counties during the day on Friday. Fairly high confidence in scattered to numerous rain and snow showers spreading from west to east Thursday night, with likely to widespread snow showers Friday afternoon. Much cooler and windy on Friday with maximum temperatures in the mid 30s and 40s. Winter weather highlights may be needed for the mountains and nearby locations. Saturday...Snow showers will gradually end from west to east early in the day, as the shortwave trough aloft moves into the northern Great Plains states. Strong low and mid level northwest flow will help produce a windy day, with possible high winds for our wind prone locations. Somewhat warmer than Friday with 700 mb temperatures near 6 Celsius. Sunday...The flow aloft weakens as low amplitude shortwave ridging aloft develops over Wyoming, producing dry conditions and mild temperatures in the upper 50s and 60s with 700 mb temperatures near 2 Celsius. Monday...Ridging aloft moves over our forecast area, with surface lee troughing over our eastern counties, producing a dry and mild day. 700 mb temperatures near 8 Celsius will yield maximum temperatures in the mid 60s west of I-25, with 70s east of I-25. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 521 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Southwest flow aloft will continue. A weather disturbance and its associated cold front will move into central Wyoming Tuesday morning, producing isolated to scattered rain and snow showers for our terminals. Wyoming TAFS...Ceilings will vary from 9000 to 12000 feet until late tonight and Tuesday morning, with ceilings likely (70 percent likelihood) becoming 4000 to 6000 feet Tuesday morning, and scattered rain and snow showers at Rawlins and Laramie reducing visibilities to 4 miles from 15Z to 19Z Tuesday, with moderate to high confidence in shower coverage. Winds will gust to 40 knots until 02Z. Nebraska TAFS...Scattered to broken clouds from 12000 to 15000 feet will occur until 15Z, with ceilings most likely (near 70 percent) near 5000 feet after 15Z Tuesday, along with isolated rain showers, 10 to 20 percent coverage in the morning and 30 to 40 percent coverage in the afternoon. Confidence is not high enough to include more than vicinity in the TAFS. Winds will gust to 36 knots until 03Z at Chadron, Alliance and Scottsbluff. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for WYZ417>419- 430>433. NE...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for NEZ434>437. && $$ SHORT TERM...MN LONG TERM...RUBIN AVIATION...RUBIN  657 FXUS64 KEWX 132332 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 632 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated storms possible across the Southern Edwards Plateau and near the Rio Grande late this afternoon/evening and again on Tuesday. - Active weather along with Warm and humid conditions to continue throughout the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 1253 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 For the rest of this afternoon expect a mix of sun and clouds with many areas that saw sun already warming into the low 80s. This should help to dry out the majority of our area after the past couple days of rainfall that we had. The atmosphere is a bit more stable across the eastern two thirds of the area today so we aren't expecting as widespread thunderstorm activity with heavy rainfall as we have had the past few days. The one exception is out across the Southern Edwards Plateau as isolated severe storms are possible as a dryline over West TX tries to advance eastward. Most Hi-Res models have backed off on the thunderstorm potential as forcing remains weak and displaced much further north. Nevertheless, any storms that do form over West TX and Mexico have the potential to become severe with main hazards being large hail. As such SPC continues to highlight this area in a level 1 of 5 risk but as mentioned it remains to be seen if these storms form and can make it into our area late this afternoon into this evening. We could have a similar situation for Tuesday as the dry line once again tries to move father east thus helping to spark off additional showers and storms once daytime heating commences, some of which may be severe. The forcing looks slightly better as a western trough pushes further eastward and closer to our area tomorrow. SPC has parts of the Southern Edwards Plateau in a level 2 of 5 risk with a level 1 of 5 risk for the rest of the Southern Edwards Plateau, all severe hazards will be possible. Highs for Tuesday are forecast to be in the 80s to low 90s with lows both nights near 70 degrees along with very humid conditions. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 1253 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 We remain in a very persistent pattern of broad southwesterly flow aloft helping to keep our area on the more active side weather wise. We continue to see impulses eject out west and move across our region with the next one arriving sometime Wednesday into Thursday. As this happens storms are expected to initiate out ahead of this feature with most activity remaining west of the I-35 Corridor. Depending on what happens and how the storms evolve late Tuesday into Tuesday evening will have a major impact on how much energy remains across the area. The more storms that form the less energy leftover and vice versa. Regardless, SPC has the same area in a level 1 of 5 risk of severe weather for Wednesday. By Thursday we get a brief break as upper-level ridging moves overhead and allows drier air to spill in lasting until Friday. This will allow temperatures to warm back up into the upper 80s to perhaps low 90s. By Saturday Global models are hinting at a strong cold front that works its way southward across TX leading to another period of possibly active weather however at this time it's too far out to get into any specifics. Once this front passes both models are hinting at much colder air overspreading the region with highs that were in the upper 80s to low 90s Friday before dropping to the low to mid 70s by Sunday as CAA continues. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 628 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 All terminals are VFR and will remain VFR through the evening. There are isolated thunderstorms over Mexico west of DRT, and there is a chance that one of these moves into the DRT area later this evening. We have a PROB30 group to account for this. Ceilings will lower to MVFR at all airports late this evening and drop to IFR in San Antonio and Del Rio overnight. VFR conditions will return by early afternoon Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 69 84 69 85 / 10 0 10 30 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 69 84 67 84 / 10 0 10 30 New Braunfels Muni Airport 68 84 68 85 / 10 0 10 30 Burnet Muni Airport 68 82 66 80 / 10 10 20 40 Del Rio Intl Airport 70 84 69 84 / 50 40 60 30 Georgetown Muni Airport 68 82 67 81 / 10 0 10 40 Hondo Muni Airport 68 84 66 82 / 20 10 20 40 San Marcos Muni Airport 68 84 68 85 / 10 0 10 30 La Grange - Fayette Regional 69 85 69 86 / 0 0 0 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 70 84 69 84 / 10 0 10 40 Stinson Muni Airport 70 85 70 85 / 10 0 10 30 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CJM LONG TERM....CJM AVIATION...05  370 FXUS61 KILN 132332 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 732 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Added a specific message for severe weather Tuesday evening across west-central Ohio. Also separated the strong cold front this weekend into a separate key message. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Several chances for thunderstorms exist today through Tuesday evening. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday, primarily across west-central Ohio. 2) Well above normal temperatures are expected through the rest of the week. Episodic shower and thunderstorm chances continue. 3) Strong cold front moves through this weekend, bringing cooler temperatures Sunday and Monday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1) Chances for showers and thunderstorms through the rest of the afternoon and evening remain low, but given the Ohio Valley region sits within a broad warm sector, warm and moist air do support the potential. Thunderstorms in northern Illinois this afternoon likely pose the greatest chance for thunderstorm activity to reach the area (west-central Ohio) later this evening. Some of the recent CAM guidance has trended north, with the activity now remaining north of the local area. Otherwise, overnight activity associated with a larger cluster of thunderstorms propagating southeastward through the lower Great Lakes may survive into northern parts of the area into the morning hours on Tuesday. Any activity is expected to remain below severe thresholds, but the boundary provided by this activity could establish a conditional severe threat Tuesday evening across portions of west-central Ohio and perhaps into central Ohio. Currently, the local area remains in a level 1 out of 5 (Marginal Risk) for severe thunderstorms Tuesday. Due to the boundary discussed above, the severe threat may be contingent on meso-scale boundary trends following thunderstorm activity. Using the HRRR as an example, the outflow boundary from overnight Monday helps to pool moisture along a northwest to southeast boundary from Lake Michigan into west-central Ohio. Thunderstorms developing in this region would persist within an environment with backed flow and robust amounts of instability (if the low-level moisture modeled occurs). Curved hodographs and strong updrafts would at least support chances for damaging winds and large hail. A narrow window would also support a tornado or two depending on the ultimate evolution of the thunderstorms. With 24-plus hours before these storms develop, there will be plenty of time to see how the overnight activity evolves into Tuesday afternoon. Looking at Tuesday, records are CVG 84F (1887), CMH 86F (1883), and DAY 82F (1931,1941). Current forecasted highs for Tuesday are CVG 82F, CMH 82F, DAY 83F. KEY MESSAGE 2) Even if thunderstorms occur on Tuesday, the broader synoptic setup remains the same going into Wednesday and Thursday. The mid-level ridge is still in place supporting warm and moist air moving in from the southwest. Additional chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms exist Wednesday, with a more consolidated shortwave moving through the Great Lake and Ohio Valley on Thursday. Despite the stronger forcing with the trough, the severe threat over these two days appears low. Lackluster mid-level lapse rates and non- optimal timing on Thursday, likely decreases the severe potential. The severe threat may remain low, but multiple rounds of thunderstorms within anomalous PWATs could eventually result in high water concerns before drier air works into the region on Friday. KEY MESSAGE 3) The period of drier air on Friday is short-lived as a strong trough digs into the Midwest and Great Lakes. A deep low pressure and strong associated cold front provides the potential for stronger lift. Severe parameters are not significant, but they are also not zero. Forecast sounding indicate enough instability and shear could be present ahead of the front, especially if it crosses during the afternoon or evening. Behind the front, some frost potential exists, but it will depend on how far south the cooler air surges. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... An area of showers and thunderstorms moving into northwest Ohio this evening will remain north of the TAF sites so expect dry conditions into the overnight hours. However, there is some uncertainty in pcpn chances for later tonight into Tuesday morning as some models are suggesting the potential for some residual showers and embedded thunderstorms to drop down from the northwest. Confidence is too low at this point to include in the TAFs but if this were to occur, it would mainly affect the northern TAF sites. As we head through the afternoon and into Tuesday evening, some additional low end chances for thunderstorms will be possible but again, chances appear too low to include in the TAFs. Southwest winds will decrease somewhat tonight but gusts in the 25 to 30 knot range will be possible at times again during the day on Tuesday. OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions and thunderstorms possible at times through Wednesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...McGinnis AVIATION...JGL  146 FXUS64 KLIX 132332 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 632 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 625 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 - Sun and temperature related health risks will be the primary concern with sunny skies and warm temperatures on tap through much of the week. Make sure to use sunscreen and drink plenty of water if you intend to be outside enjoying activities like sports and festivals. - Light fog development remains possible each morning particularly near water bodies. Chances for higher coverage of moderate to dense fog exists Tuesday and Wednesday morning, but forecast confidence is low at this time. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Wednesday) Issued at 1130 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 The upcoming days will be largely driven by persistent southeast flow on the southwest flank of a strong surface high centered near Bermuda. Temperatures will be strongly driven by diurnal forces and dew point temperatures in the low to mid 60s each day. The recent uptick in low-level moisture as noted by the 1200 UTC LIX sounding this morning does indicate that there will be sufficient moisture for fog development though our positioning away from the center of the surface high will make it more difficult for us to decouple and calm down at the surface, sufficient for fog development. This creates uncertainty in density and coverage of fog development tonight and Tuesday night. SREF/HREF probabilities indicate a medium chance for moderate to dense fog (3 miles to 1/2 mile) Tuesday morning, predominantly focused before and at sunrise, but another forecast cycle is needed to monitor trends and boost forecast confidence of any patch dense fog develop, particularly for southern MS and adjacent parishes. Days will largely start out with patchy, light to moderate fog particularly farther inland in areas of southern MS and Atchafalaya Basin which will quickly dissipate after sunrise. Once any fog clears, a cu field will gradually develop throughout the peak daytime heating hours. A few of these cu may tower a little taller and a stray shower cannot be ruled out. Anomalously warm temperatures aloft due to strong mid-upper ridging in the SE CONUS will also aid in rapid warming of temperatures into the mid 80s away from the immediate coast, around 5 to 10 degrees above normal. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1130 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A toasty end of the work week appears to be ahead with temperatures continuing to trend warmer Thursday through Saturday. The only caveat for Thursday being that the nose of the upper ridge will be eroded some by the passage of a weak shortwave trough across the Mid Mississippi River Valley. Even still, probabilities of temperatures reaching 90F near and northwest of Baton Rouge as well as the Pearl River Basin near and north of Bogalusa are 50-70% for Friday and Saturday. If 90F is reached, this would be about a month earlier than the average first 90F day for Baton Rouge (BTR). Another stronger trough will dig across the SW CONUS before ejecting and lifting through the central CONUS. This will generate a strong mid-latitude cyclone that will lift through the Great Lakes and help to drive colder air and a strong surface high pressure through the Mississippi River Valley this weekend. Uncertainty exists as it pertains to where this trough and surface cyclone eject as that longitude will matter regarding how strong any frontal system will be as it approaches the Gulf Coast around the Sunday timeframe. This would be our best bet at reprieve from the spring heat as well as supply us with our highest chance for rain in the forecast period. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 625 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 All terminals VFR at forecast ussuance time. There were some scattered cumulus clouds with most bases above FL030. Most of these should dissipate with sunset. With southeast surface flow continuing, we'll probably see a few patches of lower cloud during the evening and overnight hours, primarily MVFR. Can't rule out radiation fog entirely, as we won't have the high clouds we had last night. But dew points are in the same range as last night (60-65F), and there wasn't a lot of development, even in areas that didn't have the high clouds. If any fog does develop, it probably won't be much before 10z, and should mix out prior to 14z. Beyond that point, most likely just some fluffy cumulus clouds. Cloud bases by midday probably around FL040. && .MARINE... Issued at 1130 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Strong surface high pressure from the northeast gulf into the Atlantic continues to produce a moderate easterly to southeasterly fetch over the northern Gulf. Winds have eased to just under 15 kt and should remain there throughout this week. At this time, the onshore fetch appears to be too weak to cause minor coastal flooding, but we will continue to monitor tidal trends as we approach the spring tide phase. Onshore flow will continue through at least Saturday with the potential for offshore flow from a cold front coming on Sunday and into early next week. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TJS LONG TERM....TJS AVIATION...RW MARINE...TJS  221 FXUS64 KHGX 132333 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 633 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and humid conditions continue through the end of the week. - Rain chances increase next weekend as a cold front moves into the region. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 219 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Early afternoon radar imagery shows isolated to scattered rain showers developing over portions of the Brazos Valley and the Piney Woods in association with a shortwave impulse embedded within southwesterly flow aloft along with daytime heating and sufficient instability. We will keep rain chances between 20-40 percent over these areas through the remainder of the afternoon and much lower around 10% near the coast. Isolated to scattered convection should diminish by early this evening. The southwesterly flow pattern aloft will persist across southeast Texas through the end of the week, while light to moderate onshore flow prevails at the surface. Warm and humid conditions will continue each day underneath partly to mostly cloudy skies. Rain chances will overall remain very low with little in the way of forcing expected through Friday, though isolated showers or thunderstorms could clip our far northern counties on Wednesday. An upper level trough is expected to move across the central Plains and the Upper Midwest on Saturday. An associated cold front may approach our forecast area by Saturday afternoon and evening along with an increased chance of showers and thunderstorms through Saturday night. A slight chance of rain showers may continue into the day Sunday behind the frontal passage. Northeasterly winds are expected to increase Saturday night into Sunday behind the cold front, especially over the offshore waters. Temperatures will trend slightly cooler Sunday afternoon. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 628 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Lingering showers from this afternoon and early evening have fully dissipated with expectations to not see much more tonight thanks to building high pressure. Instead concerns will be more focused on the cloud cover and the expected CIGs for the overnight period as multiple CAMs suggest a return to MVFR CIGs by around midnight. These conditions are expected to hold for most of the TAF sites through the overnight and morning hours with most CAMS not seeing a return to VFR until around noon tomorrow. Otherwise, look for winds to once again pick up tomorrow afternoon with gusts upwards of 20 to 23 kts possible at the surface. && .MARINE... Issued at 219 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A light to moderate onshore flow will persist through midweek with speeds generally around 15 knots from the southeast expected through Wednesday. There may be a brief period where small craft will need to exercise caution offshore Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Water levels may reach up to 2.5-3.0 feet above MLLW near high tide through much of this week. Wave run-up is possible while the rip current risk also remains elevated through the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 68 82 67 84 / 0 0 0 10 Houston (IAH) 70 84 70 84 / 0 0 0 10 Galveston (GLS) 73 79 72 79 / 0 0 0 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Lindsey AVIATION...Self MARINE...Lindsey  630 FXUS61 KRLX 132334 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 734 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation Forecast Discussion update. Modified POPs this evening as radar trends keep shower activity south and east of the forecast area this evening. Also removed mentions of thunder this evening. 133 PM update... Adjusted near term precipitation probabilities to account for convective trends moving out of eastern Kentucky. Minor upward adjustments to surface wind gusts this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1.) Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will track across northern portions of the area late this afternoon into this evening. Some very localized relief from recent dryness possible. 2.) Near-record heat will dominate the work week and into the weekend beneath a stagnant upper level ridge. 3.) Mainly diurnal shower and thunderstorm chances continue through the week, offering little drought relief. A strong cold front approaches next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Regional radar mosaic this afternoon depicts disorganized convection across eastern Kentucky, forced by a mid-level wave traversing the upper Ohio Valley and weak warm advection. This activity is forecast to translate west-to-east across southeast Ohio and northern West Virginia late this afternoon and into the evening. Surface observations across the area indicate a well-mixed boundary layer with temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s and dew points in the upper 40s to lower 50s. This substantial dew point depression will limit precipitation efficiency, with many locations receiving trace amounts or no rain at all. Evaporational cooling within this dry sub-cloud layer will augment downdrafts, supporting localized surface wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph near convective cores, consistent with current ASOS gust reports of 20 to 25 mph outside of precipitation. KEY MESSAGE 2... The synoptic pattern remains highly amplified and stagnant, featuring a persistent H500 ridge anchored over the eastern half of the country. Deep southwesterly flow continues to transport a warm, modified Gulf airmass into the region. This regime will yield unseasonably hot conditions, with high temperatures running 15 to 20 degrees F above climatological normals. Statistical guidance strongly supports maximum temperatures reaching the mid to upper 80s across the lowlands, particularly on Wednesday, Thursday, and Saturday, challenging several daily records. KEY MESSAGE 3... Embedded shortwaves rippling through the southwesterly flow will provide periodic forcing for mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms. Deep layer shear is forecast to maximize on Tuesday at 30 to 35KTs, which could support loosely organized multicell structures. However, the most robust forcing and instability will remain shunted to the northwest of the forecast area. Precipitation totals through the work week will offer little relief to ongoing dry conditions, with ensemble guidance suggesting less than a quarter inch of rain across the southern coalfields and perhaps a half inch across the northwest. Elevated fire weather conditions will remain a concern, especially during peak afternoon heating mid to late week. Minimum relative humidity values are forecast to drop into the 25 to 35 percent range. Combined with gusty southwesterly surface winds of 15 to 25 mph, fine dead fuels will remain receptive to fire. A pattern shift is increasingly likely by next weekend as a robust upper trough encroaches from the west, driving a strong cold front through the region and delivering a better opportunity for widespread wetting rainfall. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Radar activity this evening shows showers have diminished in coverage and are now south of all terminals. VFR conditions prevail into the overnight hours and beyond into Tuesday. Diurnally driven showers and storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon, but confidence remains low on activity reaching any TAF site. Gusty southwesterly winds this afternoon will gradually peter out this evening, holding steady around 5 to 8 knots overnight. After daybreak Tuesday, surface gusts will once again increase to breezy/gusty levels for the remainder of the valid TAF period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 04/14/26 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY... VFR conditions will generally prevail through the work week. However, brief periods of MVFR to IFR restrictions are possible within isolated showers and thunderstorms. && .Climate... Persistent southwesterly flow will yield very warm temperatures for this time of the year through Saturday. Record highs may be challenged on several days. Forecast / Record High Temperatures ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Tue, 4/14 | Wed, 4/15 | Thu, 4/16 | Fri, 4/17 | ------------------------------------------------------------------------ CRW | 85 / 88 (2018) | 89 / 89 (1994) | 87 / 89 (2002) | 84 / 89 (1976) | HTS | 86 / 87 (1941) | 89 / 87 (2024) | 86 / 89 (2024) | 86 / 87 (1976) | CKB | 82 / 87 (2018) | 85 / 83 (1974) | 84 / 86 (2002) | 80 / 88 (1969) | PKB | 84 / 85 (1941) | 87 / 84 (2024) | 86 / 88 (2002) | 83 / 89 (1976) | BKW | 78 / 83 (2018) | 83 / 82 (2012) | 81 / 84 (2002) | 78 / 84 (1976) | EKN | 80 / 85 (2018) | 84 / 81 (2012) | 83 / 85 (2012) | 78 / 87 (1976) | ------------------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------- Sat, 4/18 | --------------------- CRW | 90 / 90 (2019) | HTS | 90 / 89 (1955) | CKB | 86 / 88 (1976) | PKB | 88 / 91 (1976) | BKW | 83 / 86 (1976) | EKN | 85 / 88 (1976) | && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JP AVIATION...05 CLIMATE...JP  661 FXUS64 KMOB 132334 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 634 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 634 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 - Moderate to extreme drought, with little to no rain over the next 7 days, will exacerbate wildfire activity. - Patchy to areas of fog development, some of which could be dense, is possible over the next few nights. - A moderate rip current risk is expected for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches through midweek. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 104 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Through Thursday...an upper ridge stretching northeast from an upper high over the Gulf remains in control of the Southeast. A strong upper level shortwave trough passes well north of the forecast area Thursday/Thursday night, temporarily weakening the upper ridge over the northern half of the eastern Conus, but this only temporarily. A surface ridge stretching west over the Southeast is maintained, keeping the region under southeast to southerly flow through mid week. Subsidence from the upper ridge will keep deep layer moisture levels low (1.0" or less), especially over eastern portions of the forecast area. This will keep the forecast area dry, even with Thursday's passing shortwave trough. The passing shortwave does weaken the surface trough, though, along with bringing a temporary uptick in deep layer moisture levels. There is expected to be enough moisture in boundary for overnight fog development each night through Thursday night. Hard to pin down any dense fog developing where and when, so will have to play this by ear. Temperatures remain above seasonal norms, with high temperatures topping out in the low to mid 80s well inland from the coast, upper 70s to near 80 near and on the coast. Low temperatures see a small uptick through the period, from the mid 50s to around 60 tonight rising to around 60 to mid 60s by Thursday night. Friday through Monday, guidance is advertising a closed upper low moving east over/along the northern US/Ca border Saturday through the weekend, along with some shortwave energy moving through the flow over the southern half of the Conus. A surface cold front moves across the forecast area later Saturday night into Sunday night in response. Significant differences in the path of the major closed upper low is creating significant differences in the strength of the cold front and cold air pushing south over the Southeast. Guidance also varies in the effects of the passing shortwave energy, especially the further south the cold front moves. The current forecast is based upon any decent upper support remaining well north of the forecast any area and PoPs remaining low. Temperatures ahead of the front's passage remain well above seasonal norms, with possible bumping of record highs Friday. Behind, there is a drop in temperatures for the coming week. How much is hard to pin down right now. A steady southeast to southerly flow will keep swell incoming on area beaches. With a low tidal range, am expecting a Moderate Risk of Rip Currents through Friday. Disruption of the surface ridge later in the week will decrease incoming swell and drop the Rip Risk to Low for the coming weekend. /16 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 634 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 VFR conditions are expected to continue through the evening hours. Fog and low ceilings are expected to first develop along the I-10 corridor and spread to our interior counties overnight. It still looks like the best probabilities for dense fog will remain north of our local TAF sites (although KMOB could see brief reductions to LIFR by around sunrise). Any fog or low ceilings that do develop tonight will dissipate a little after sunrise. A light and variable to light southerly flow tonight will increase to near 10 knots on Tuesday. /22 && .MARINE... Issued at 104 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow is expected through the forecast. /16 && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 104 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Looking at fire weather concerns over the forecast area, with drought conditions, and dry fuels, a Moderate Risk of a Significant Fire Potential is in effect through the week. Winds remain light enough and afternoon relative humidity values a bit too moist to hoist a by the criteria Red Flag Watch/Warning at this time for the next few days. Still, playing this by ear. /16 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 60 82 60 82 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 60 79 63 79 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 62 77 64 78 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 55 86 54 86 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 58 86 57 86 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 56 85 56 85 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 55 85 56 86 / 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None && $$  003 FXUS63 KGID 132335 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 635 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Fire weather is a primary hazard to focus on this afternoon, and potentially tomorrow in north central Kansas. Thursday will also be warm, dry, and windy, and could be another day for fire concerns. - There is a chance for a shower or thunderstorm Tuesday evening (20-50% with best chances far southeast and far northwest), but it currently looks more likely that most of the area remains dry, and any precipitation will likely be less than a tenth of an inch. - The next strong storm system arrives late Friday into early Saturday. Expect thunderstorms on the leading edge of this storm with snow on the back side of the storm. The current most likely storm track suggests the best chance for thunderstorms is east of HWY 281, and the greatest chance for rain changing to snow is north of the Platte River. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1221 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A discussion on fire-weather-specific information can be found in the Fire section below. Surface low pressure located near Kearney at mid day will gradually develop northeast toward Albion through this afternoon. Warm and dry air will overspread the entire area this afternoon. One thing to watch this afternoon will be a low-end potential for isolated convection to develop in the wraparound moisture on the west side of the surface low. We most likely should stay precipitation free, but there's about a 10% chance for development in far northern counties of the forecast area around 5 PM, and a better chance farther north. As we get into the overnight hours and the low pressure moves off to the northeast, cooler and moisture air will push south into many of our Nebraska counties while new low pressure develops in northwest KS. This front will likely stall in the vicinity of the KS/NE border and hang out in that area on Tuesday. Expect a good pool of low level moisture immediately on the cool side of the front while areas to the south remain warm and in a dry airmass. While a ribbon of instability is likely to develop near/north of the front, there will be a very strong cap in place and surface based storms are not expected. As we get a bit deeper into the evening, there is some potential for increased convergence along and just north of the boundary to provide a semi-favorable environment for breaking the cap, but would require significant moisture transport and pooling through a pretty good depth and into the warm layer aloft. As of now, forecast soundings are not favorable for thunderstorm development, and if it does happen would stand a better chance with eastward extent. Farther north, closer to the core of a short wave trough with weaker cap and stronger forcing, there is a better chance for showers or a few thunderstorms to develop and skirt across our northern counties, but truthfully that precip potential is greater farther to the north. A few wraparound showers could linger into Wednesday, depending on how quickly the system moves off to the east. Overall, this system does not look particularly rainy for south central NE or north central KS. After a period of mid level ridging on Thursday, there is good model agreement with high probability for a strong storm system tracking from Colorado across KS/NE late Friday into Saturday. This has the look (and the temperature profile) of a classic spring system with thunderstorms ahead of the low, snow on the northwest quadrant, and plenty of wind for everyone. Any severe storm potential will be highly dependent upon timing of the storm system, and current indications suggest a higher likelihood of severe storms east of the local forecast area, so we'll be watching potential for the system to slow down and pull better moisture back to the west. The snow potential will also be highly dependent upon the storm track, and right now the greatest potential appears to be north of the local forecast area. Where it does snow, it will be accompanied by strong winds, and so this too is worth very closely monitoring as it could make for hazardous travel conditions Friday night into Saturday morning. After this system, should see a period of slightly cooler conditions with calmer weather overall...at least into the first couple days of next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 625 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Dry weather with VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF period. Main uncertainty for this period lies with winds, especially toward the end of the period. Winds this evening are expected to turn more northerly, the northeasterly, remaining that way overnight...with lighter speeds closer to 10 MPH. During the morning hours on Tuesday, a frontal boundary sinks south through the area, bringing a turn to more easterly winds. The afternoon hours bring more uncertainty and low confidence in the wind forecast...as models show this boundary potentially lifting briefly north, possibly bringing a more westerly component to the wind...only to be overtaken by another cool front pushing south through the area, which would switch winds back to the north. Plenty of small details to iron out with the winds during this TAF period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Today: Low pressure moving from near Kearney to near Columbus this afternoon will pull a narrow sector of warm and very dry air across the forecast area today. As temperatures warm, wind speeds will increase this afternoon with gusts to 25 mph, and some potential for a few gusts to 30 mph. Also expect the wind direction to gradually become more westerly as the afternoon progresses...no sharp wind shifts are expected but more of a gradual change. Near sunset, the wind gusts should come to an end with RH slowly recovering into the evening. Overnight, winds will turn out of the northeast in most Nebraska counties as a front slowly drifts southward, but should remain mainly out of the south in Kansas counties. RH will also increase with RH above 80% north of the front overnight into Tuesday morning. Tuesday: For much of the day on Tuesday, a front will extend from near Norton to near Hebron, give or take 30 miles or so. North of that front, winds will be out of the northeast and gusty at times, with RH starting the day around 90% and reaching an afternoon minimum around 40%. South of the front, the airmass will be much drier with southwest or westerly winds. MinRH in these areas will be in the 12-16% range, and while winds may gust 20-25 mph, there is some uncertainty in just how strong the winds will be, and whether or not they will reach Red Flag criteria. At this time, with less confidence in the afternoon wind speeds, will maintain the fire weather watch for KS counties as it stands, with intent to make a warn/no-warn decision late this evening or early Tuesday. WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY: Thursday looks like the best chance for warm, dry, and windy conditions possibly leading to another Red Flag setup. Friday could also feature a dryline scenario with very low afternoon RH in parts of the area, especially southwest, and followed by a cold frontal passage and a wind shift out of the northwest. The best chance for meaningful precipitation appears to arrive late Friday, although far from a guarantee of widespread wetting rain. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ039>041- 046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087. KS...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005>007- 017>019. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for KSZ005>007-017>019. && $$ DISCUSSION...Barjenbruch (OAX) AVIATION...ADP FIRE WEATHER...Barjenbruch (OAX)  550 FXUS61 KCAR 132335 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 735 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... - Multiple reports received that ice has cleared on the Aroostook River. There is a minor jam in place on the Allagash River by the bridge with substantial sheet ice remaining upstream. That is now the only known river ice remaining at this time on northern Maine rivers. Updated the key message 1 discussion to reflect the latest information on river ice. - Update to lower forecast temperatures late this afternoon and evening. The morning run of the NBM is 5 to 15 degrees too warm compared to current observations. - (730 PM Update) Cancelled Small Craft Advisory over the intracoastal waters. Updated marine discussion. Minor update to aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Above normal temperatures through the end of the week combined with some rainfall will result in river ice continuing to break up, melt, and clear out on the northern rivers. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Above normal temperatures through the end of the week combined with some rainfall will result in river ice continuing to break up, melt, and clear out on the northern rivers. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Per the previous discussion: High temperatures across the north are expected to be in the low 50s through mid-week and in the upper 50s to near 60 late this week. This will result in river ice across the north continuing to melt and break up. So far there has been no ice jam flooding reported and the ice-out has been gentle. However, some minor ice jamming is reported on the Allagash River. Additional rainfall across the north of around a quarter inch Tuesday night will add to the snow and ice melt, contributing to additional rises on the rivers. Significant flooding is currently not anticipated at this time. However, given that the ice is still moving and breaking up on the Allagash River, we will have to continue to monitor the potential for some ice jams and continued fluctuation of water levels over the Saint John basin. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Tonight...MVFR/IFR with -RA, improving to VFR at BGR and BHB and MVFR at northern terminals. -RA and LLWS ends from NW to SE by 6z. S winds 5 to 10 kt this evening, shifting NW. Tuesday...MVFR at northern terminals through mid day, otherwise VFR. NW wind 5 to 10 kt in the morning, becoming light and variable. Tuesday night...IFR or lower with -RA. Light and variable winds. Wednesday...MVFR dropping to IFR south. IFR north, improving to MVFR late. SE to E wind around 5 kt. Wednesday night...MVFR to VFR north. IFR TO MVFR south. N wind around 5 kt. Thursday...MVFR becoming IFR south. VFR becoming MVFR then IFR north. SE wind 5 to 10 kt. Thursday night...IFR, becoming MVFR late. Light and variable wind. Friday-Saturday...VFR. NW wind around 5 kt. && .MARINE... Winds and seas below advisory criteria continue across the intracoastal waters. A Small Craft Advisory continues for the outer waters with gusts to 25 kt tapering off shortly, but seas remaining above 5 ft through early Tuesday morning. Winds/seas are expected to remain below SCA levels Tuesday night. Wind and seas will remain below SCA from mid week this week through the coming weekend. Moist air over the colder waters may result in some fog and mist over the waters and along the coast at times, especially Wednesday and again on Friday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ050-051. && $$ DISCUSSION...TWD/ARL/MWS AVIATION...ARL/MWS  078 FXUS63 KJKL 132335 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 735 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Unseasonably warm conditions are expected for much of the next week. - The warmest days are forecast to be Tuesday through Saturday. New daily record high temperatures are possible, if not likely, on the warmest days. - Scattered light rain showers are possible through early this evening, with little in the way of measurable rainfall. - Small shower and thunderstorm chances return on Tuesday. Additional showers/storms are possible Thursday and Thursday night and again into the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 735 PM EDT MON APR 13 2026 An area of lingering light rain over far southeastern Kentucky is gradually diminishing at update time and should depart by ~1Z. Once the rain ends, fair weather can be expected for the remainder of the overnight with temperatures falling back into the 50s to near 60F. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 430 PM EDT MON APR 13 2026 Late this afternoon, an upper level ridge was centered in the eastern Gulf and extended across parts of Central America. An upper level low was centered in the Hudson Bay vicinity while an upper level trough extended across western portions of the Conus. This pattern is resulting in southwest flow aloft across eastern KY and the OH Valley region. At the surface, a ridge of high pressure was centered in parts of the Atlantic and extended into the Southeast to Southern Appalachians. Showers were moving across southern portions of the area at this time as well as over Elliott County. Rainfall has ranged from a few sprinkles or a traces in southern portions of the area to as much as third of an inch or so north of the Mountain Parkway. Temperatures as if 4 PM were mainly in the 70s with a few 60s where some of the heavier showers were occurring. Southwest to west southwest flow should dominate through the short term period as upper level ridging remains centered in the eastern Gulf into parts of the southeast and the current western Conus trough moves into the High Plains and nears the Central Conus. This evening and tonight, as the disturbance that is aiding the shower activity across the region moves east of the area this evening, shower chances will diminish and low and mid level clouds should thin at least for a few hours in the evening to the overnight per model time height sections. This should allow for valleys to decouple as the clouds thin and a moderate magnitude ridge/valley split. Lower 50s should occur in the normally colder valleys while ridges settle near 60s. If there is sufficient clearing where some of the heavier rain fell, some fog could form, but confidence was not high enough to include at this point given the recent dryness. Another disturbance in southwest flow between the upper ridge centered over the eastern Gulf to portions of the southeast and an upper trough that moves across portions of the western Conus should approach late tonight and cross the area on Tuesday. In advance of it, an uptick in the LLJ should occur late tonight into early on Tuesday. This could result in shower activity toward dawn, especially in the northwest, though recent CAM runs and have minimal activity late tonight and on Tuesday for that matter. The past two GFS runs have more in the way of activity for that matter while the ECMWF also is more scant with activity. The neutral height tendencies if not slight rises on Tuesday support the idea of minimal activity. For now isolated to scattered pops were carried for Tuesday. With less shower activity and southwest flow leading to warm air advection, temperatures should warm compared to today with widespread highs in the 80 anticipated. Ridging dominates for Tuesday night withe less potential for low and mid level clouds. This should support an even wider ridge valley split of low to mid 50s eastern/southeastern valleys to low to mid 60s on ridgetops and more open terrain locations. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 507 PM EDT MON APR 13 2026 An amplified long wave pattern continues through early next week. A strong and persistent ridge will remain planted from central Mexico to Florida through early this weekend. This feature will then pivot more southeast by early next week, as an onslaught of eastern Pacific energy throughout this week finally dislodges it. Model agreement is decent early on, but then becomes less, with greater differences showing up by this weekend and into early next week. Eastern Kentucky will continue to find itself under the influence of the strong ridging to our southeast through Saturday. Well above normal temperatures, nearing record status at times, will remain in place. Highs each day will average in the mid to upper 80s, with a few low 90s possible, especially Wednesday and Friday/Saturday. Lows will average in the 50s and 60s each night. The next decent chance of rain will move in Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, as a well-defined short wave trough tracks east from the middle Mississippi Valley through the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. PoPs will peak in the 40-60% range. Unfortunately, QPF continues to look lean, with most locations likely seeing a tenth of an inch or less, although any thunderstorms could locally overachieve. A much deeper trough will move from the Plains to the eastern CONUS this weekend into early next week, with a surface cold front finally making it across the Commonwealth. QPF could be more substantial and beneficial with this system; however, will await further model trends before getting too optimistic. PoPs peak in the 50-60% range Saturday night, with some chances extending into Sunday, depending on the timing. This cold front will also bring an end to the heatwave, with highs retreating to mainly the 60s for both Sunday and Monday. Some frost potential may follow for Sunday night and perhaps Monday night in the valleys, depending on model trends. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT MON APR 13 2026 VFR prevailed at TAF issuance. Light rain over far southeastern Kentucky affecting 1A6 and I35 should depart within an hour. Winds will slacken to variable to southwest around 6 kts or less overnight. However, winds will increase aloft as a disturbance approaches after about 04Z which will result in a marginal LLWS threat through daybreak. Some isolated shower activity is possible on Tuesday but confidence in impacts and timing was too low to retain in the latest TAF issuance. Southwest winds at 5 to 15KT with gusts of 15 to 25KT should return for most of the daylight hours on Tuesday, strongest winds west of I-75 and near/north of I-64. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...GEERTSON SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...JKL AVIATION...GEERTSON  007 FXUS65 KGJT 132336 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 536 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler, wetter weather settles in tonight, lasting through Wednesday morning. Sloppy travel conditions are expected above 9,000 feet. - Sub-freezing temperatures are expected for some valleys early Wednesday morning. A Freeze Watch is in effect for the susceptible areas. - After a brief mid-week warm up, cool and unsettled weather returns to the region. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1222 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 INCOMING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM: The forecast remains on track for a low pressure system to track across the Great Basin region over the next 24 hours. As it approaches, strong, moist southwesterly flow continues to advect into eastern Utah and western Colorado. PWATS 100-150% of normal are expected by mid-day today, increasing to 150-200% of normal by Tuesday morning. This pattern will also continue to support gusty surface winds up to 35 mph. The surface cold front will push through ahead of the main low tonight into tomorrow morning, ushering in a much cooler airmass. Temperatures will run 5-15 degrees below normal helping snow levels fall to around 7500 feet. This supports accumulating snow at and above pass level, with valley rain showers below. The big question remains how much snow will accumulate, and how impactful it will be. The best forcing moves through during the day Tuesday, meaning that any accumulating snow will be fighting against the high spring sun- angle and the warm surface temperatures. Snowfall rates are also not that impressive, lowering the likelihood of advisory-level winter storm impacts. Regardless, if travelling over the mountains on Tuesday into Wednesday morning, be prepared for sloppy driving conditions. Some valleys will see temperatures in the upper 20s, low 30s Wednesday morning. As such, a Freeze Watch has been issued. COOLER AND UNSETTLED FRIDAY AND BEYOND: Wednesday and Thursday look to bring a brief break from the wind and the cooler temperatures as transient ridging passes through. Temperatures rebound to near or slightly above normal. However, another low pressure system drops in from the Pacific Northwest late in the week. While the details remain muddled, one can expect a cooler, wetter period as this system passes through. Perhaps most notably, a hard freeze is very likely Saturday morning. Stay tuned throughout the week as we continue to parse out what this system will have in store for eastern Utah and western Colorado. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 536 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 SCT cloud cover in place late this afternoon with clouds becoming BKN by sunset. Virga showers are leading to enhanced gusty winds in addition to gradient winds with SW gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range expected through the evening, becoming lighter but still breezy at times after sunset. PROB30 groups in place for showers this evening until better chances of wetting precipitation reaching the ground exist after midnight. VFR conditions remain in place until after midnight when MVFR are possible under any shower activity due to lower CIGS and VSBY. ILS breakpoints will be met heading towards 12Z and onwards with prevailing precipitation in many areas. Showers become more scattered after 18Z Tuesday with breezy afternoon winds returning as the system begins to move out and drier air moves back in by late Tuesday afternoon, so back to PROB30 groups after 18Z. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning for COZ001-002-007-008-011-020>023. UT...Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning for UTZ024. && $$ DISCUSSION...TGJT AVIATION...TGJT  440 FXUS64 KTSA 132336 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 636 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 634 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 - Warm, humid, and breezy southerly flow continues for much of the week. Most days will have at least a low chance of precipitation. - A window for higher-end severe weather potential exists Tuesday into Wednesday. - Another chance of showers and thunderstorms is expected Friday to Saturday before cooler air arrives. && .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight ) Issued at 1103 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Deep south to southwest flow will continue across the area today, leading to persistent warm and moist air advection. Lower level clouds will partly clear out by this afternoon with very warm temperatures developing, mainly in the low to mid 80s. Surface winds will gust to 25-35 mph through sundown. Although thermodynamics look favorable, given limiting forcing, we are not expecting any storms to develop today for most areas. But if a storm did pop off (10-20% chance), it could become severe. Mild and breezy conditions will remain overnight, with low temperatures well above normal, generally in the upper 60s to near 70. Low clouds may redevelop, but no rain is expected. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Monday) Issued at 1103 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 An upper level low will approach the area from the west Tuesday into Wednesday. This will put the area under the right entrance region of an upper level jet, helping to increase ascent. This will line up with robust dry line forcing across central Oklahoma and lower level moisture near the 99th percentile for this time of year. Most CAMs are showing storms blowing up along the dry line Tuesday afternoon, moving into the area during the evening and overnight hours. Forecast soundings show robust low level instability, good wind shear, and curving low level hodographs. All of these are consistent with the potential for higher end severe convection. This would include large hail, damaging wind, and isolated tornadoes. Scattered storms will likely continue into Wednesday as a weak boundary approaches the area. Additional strong or severe storms will be possible into Wednesday evening with the potential for all severe hazards. Storm potential will wrap up into Thursday morning as the upper level forcing moves east. Southerly flow reinvigorates Thursday and Friday with very warm and humid conditions remaining in place. Highs will reach the mid to upper 80s. By later Friday the next upper level trough will approach the area, with the upper level jet aligning favorably to enhance forced ascent. Showers and storms will line up along the cold front as it passes through the region. Good instability will pair with sufficient wind shear for at least some potential for severe weather. Behind the front, temperatures will be cooler for a few days with highs in the 60s to low 70s and lows in the 40s to upper 30s. Temperatures will warm back up next week with upper level ridging returning to the area. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 634 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 VFR conditions with gusty winds will continue through the evening with any chance of overnight storms below mention at any specific terminal. Expect MVFR ceilings to develop overnight and through Tuesday morning with SE OK into NW AR having the longer duration impacts. Ceilings likely rise into VFR levels area wide during the afternoon with a chance of storms into NE OK by late afternoon with higher chances beyond this forecast period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 71 84 66 77 / 10 30 70 80 FSM 69 84 67 81 / 10 10 50 70 MLC 69 82 66 77 / 20 20 60 80 BVO 67 86 64 79 / 10 40 60 80 FYV 66 82 64 77 / 10 10 50 80 BYV 68 82 66 75 / 10 20 50 70 MKO 69 81 64 75 / 10 20 70 80 MIO 70 82 65 74 / 10 30 70 80 F10 69 81 64 75 / 20 30 70 90 HHW 66 80 65 78 / 20 10 40 60 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...06 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...07  034 FXUS63 KLMK 132338 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 738 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Well-above normal temperatures continue throughout the upcoming week. A few temperature records may be in jeopardy. * Rain from a quick-hitting shortwave expected Thursday, though rainfall totals likely (80%) remain light under 0.5" in by Friday morning * Friday is very warm with highs in the 80s * Monitoring a cold front with the potential to impact weekend events in Louisville with gusty winds and storms. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 317 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Scattered light showers are ongoing across portions of south-central and eastern KY. These showers are outpacing the instability axis, though there are some pockets of moderate rain due to the relatively higher PWAT axis. This precip activity will end this afternoon, leading to a mostly dry evening due to a lack of any forcing. Temperatures remain warm tonight, which could challenge warm min temps for today if we don't drop into the 60s before midnight. We remain in warm SW flow tomorrow, with ridging over the southeast, and western US troughing. Similar to today, tomorrow is expected to be warm and breezy, though with a bit more sunshine. This will allow temps to be even warmer tomorrow, with afternoon highs in the 80s. Mostly dry conditions are expected throughout the day, though there is a low-end conditional chance for some scattered precip across the northern half of the CWA during the afternoon. Not a lot of confidence in this, and there is not a lot of agreement per the HREF paintballs, but there will be plenty of instability present given the warm temps to at least have some isolated thunder potential. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 317 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Wednesday - Friday Night Wednesday begins warm and quiet with the potential to break warm minimum temperatures in the morning ranging in the mid 60s to near 70 in some areas. Passing clouds will slowly build through the day from a slowly approaching jet streak to our northwest, which may limit some daytime heating ahead of an incoming shortwave or create an isolated shower, though confidence is low for any rain in our northwestern communities (20-30% of measurable rain). Regardless, mid to lower level ridging will be in place, amplifying southwesterly flow. This will boost temperatures well into the low to upper 80s in the afternoon, with the potential to break record highs, especially in warmer southern communities. Broken cloud cover may linger into the overnight as a shortwave rolls in a little closer heading into Thursday morning. With the ample heat from Wednesday, morning lows on Thursday will run high too, with the potential again to break high minimum temperatures in the low to upper 60s. The short term pattern on Thursday changes some, as the approaching shortwave will sweep through from west to east, bringing a round of rain and storms in the afternoon. Confidence with timing is increasing with the front dropping measurable rain near 11am - 2 pm in the west and as late as 5-7 pm in the east (75% of this onset timing). Highs area wide will range in the upper 70s to low 80s, with warmer temperatures further east as they will take the longest for the shortwave to sweep through. Rainfall totals will vary with the placement of heavy downpours from any storms though a general 0.25 - 0.5" in of rain may fall across the area (50-80% of this amount) with isolated 0.75" in (<10%). Ridging returns Friday though with skies clearing during the day. Morning lows will remain mild but probably not record breaking in the upper 50s to low 60s. With a southerly flow returning, Friday should be nice with partly cloudy skies and a slight chance of a shower or storm in the far northwest again (<20%). Highs may be record breaking once again in the mid to upper 80s, and maybe even a few spots reaching 90 degrees. This is all ahead of a larger trough moving in later in the weekend. Friday should remain dry overnight ahead of Saturday's weather. Saturday - Monday Saturday should begin dry with above normal temperatures for morning lows in the mid to upper 60s. S to SW flow will dominate ahead of a strong cold front to move in later in the afternoon bringing highs into the low to mid 80s. Any afternoon plans need to be monitored for potential disruptions as storms are expected to move in by the early afternoon Saturday. Confidence is low on the specific impacts, however threats from gusty winds, and heavy downpours, and lightning are the biggest concerns. The timing of the front is key and current ensemble analysis has the front moving in early in the afternoon, or waiting until after sunset. Whenever the ridge in the southeast US relents and moves further east will determine how quickly storms roll in. Stronger storms could be possible with timing in the afternoon or weaker storms may result with overnight timing. Regardless, everyone will see rain this Saturday and we will monitor this threat over the next few days. Once the front clears, cooler air and some gusty morning winds will move in Sunday as highs may struggle to reach the low 60s. High pressure will reinforce this cooler air leading to quiet weather for Sunday heading into Monday. Calmer weather lingers as long as this high sticks around Monday afternoon as well. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 737 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 VFR conditions are expected to continue through the forecast period for all sites. Mid to high level clouds will persist through tonight with SCT/BKN skies at 25kft. A low level jet will bring LLWS to all sites tonight (05z-12z) with SSW winds near 40kts at 2kft. As we move into tomorrow, wind gusts will return through the day with 20- 25kts gusts. There is a very low probability for isolated rain showers tomorrow afternoon, mainly for HNB and SDF. Tomorrow evening sites will see the gusty conditions taper off and clearing skies for the night. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CJP LONG TERM...BKF AVIATION...CAL  183 FXUS63 KOAX 132339 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 639 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Very high fire danger this afternoon, mainly west of line from Lincoln to Norfolk. Expect southwest winds gusting 20-30 mph and humidity dropping to 15 to 30 percent. - An active weather pattern continues with the potential for precipitation across portions of the area through Saturday morning. A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible, especially Tuesday and Friday. - Cooler temperatures (highs in the 50s and 60s and lows near freezing) are currently in the forecast for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 124 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Satellite shows high cirrus across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa with surface obs indicating some scattered lower stratus gradually clearing out today. Winds are gusting 25 to 35 mph across the area due to a deepening surface low currently sitting over east-central Nebraska. Despite high clouds winds should help with mixing allowing temperatures to warm into the mid-to- upper 80s this afternoon. Humidity will also fall fairly low, dropping to 15 to 25 percent across much of our area. Recent green-up as well as weaker winds in the driest areas toward central Nebraska should keep fire weather conditions from reaching extreme, but it could be close and will be monitored this afternoon into the early evening. The surface low to our west is forecast to track into northeast Nebraska this evening with a couple CAMs showing a storm developing in the return flow on the northwest side of the Low around 7-8pm. Confidence is low that there will be enough moisture for thunderstorm development, so PoPs in that area this evening are 20% or less. The active pattern continues in the southwesterly flow ahead of a deep trough moving into the Rockies on Tuesday. Once the first low exits to the northeast overnight tonight, attention turns to the next low that develops over eastern Colorado and moves into north-central Kansas and south-central Nebraska. This system tracks a little farther south with the warm front developing just north of the Kansas-Nebraska state line. As the surface low deepens and gets closer, we actually see the warm front sink south a bit to the Nebraska-Kansas state line. Convective initiation in this area waits until better forcing arrives with the amplification of the low-level jet around 10pm. Storms rapidly develop along a line on the northwestern flank of the LLJ over far southeast Nebraska and northwest Missouri. Depending on the exact positioning of the warm front at this time, we may see these storms lift northeast into southwest Iowa towards midnight, clearing to the east around 2AM. Model soundings show these storms clearly elevated in nature with a strong inversion in place between around 2000-4000ft. Above this inversion there is ample MUCAPE, around 1200-1400j/kg. Though there is significant low-level shear along the warm front, because of the elevated instability storms should be rooted above the better shear leading to lower potential for any longer-lived supercells. Could see large hail, perhaps damaging winds, but tornado potential is almost zero due to the strong surface inversion. Once storms clear Tuesday night, we await the arrival of the next surface low associated with the upper-level trough on Wednesday. This third low will take a nearly identical track to the Tuesday system, but entrainment of drier air from the southwest will be our limiting factor for severe storms Wednesday afternoon/evening. Showers along the warm front Tuesday morning will likely lift north Wednesday afternoon as the Low moves into eastern Nebraska and we see the drier air get pulled into southeast Nebraska. While showers appear likely where moisture continues to wrap around the north and east side of the Low Wednesday afternoon, dry air will lead to lower PoPs across much of southeast Nebraska. Severe potential seems minimal with any showers and storms Wednesday afternoon and evening with any potential generally limited to our southwest Iowa counties and only for a short window as storms initiate before they exit to the east. We get a break from these systems on Thursday as a transient ridge moves across the region ahead of our next strong upper- level trough bringing a system through on Friday. Temperatures on Thursday will warm back up into the low-to-mid 80s under clearer skies. Thursday night we see strengthening southerly flow ahead of the approaching system. This system will have a stronger clash between warmer air getting pulled up north out of the Gulf, and much cooler air being pulled south out of western Canada. Timing of the cold front will be paramount in determining the western extent of potential for severe storms Friday afternoon. Ahead of the cold front, strong warm-air and moisture advection will lead to warm-humid conditions across much of our area. Winds could be fairly strong starting around mid-morning, with gusts 30 to 40 mph very possible. I won't go into too much detail on timing of this system due to uncertainty, but if some deterministic solutions are correct developing storms ahead of the front during the afternoon into the evening, we could see a good scenario for supercells with potential for large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Monitor this time period closely over the next few days for changes. Cooler air moves in going into the weekend. We could see a few showers linger into Saturday morning, even some light snow on the back side of this system. Precip should clear out by the afternoon with highs warming into the upper 40s to mid 50s, melting anything that may accumulate. We see a ridge push in on Sunday bringing temperatures back up toward normal with highs back in the upper 50s to low 60s Sunday afternoon. Models start to really diverge in the forecast for the upper- level pattern over the weekend going into next week. One thing to watch is that Machine Learning guidance from NSSL utilizing ensemble data indicates return of potential for severe storms Monday-Wednesday next week as well with temperatures expected to rebound back up into the mid 70s to low 80s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 630 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 VFR conditions persist at the terminals through the forecast period. Winds will decrease over the next couple of hours at KOMA and KLNK. An area of low pressure moving across the region will result in winds shifting through the forecast period. Light and variable winds are expected overnight, increasing again tomorrow morning. There will be an isolated chance of a few showers or thunderstorms in the vicinity of KOFK through 10pm. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ050-065- 078. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...McCoy AVIATION...ANW  886 FXUS63 KDVN 132340 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 640 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered severe storm risk continues for this afternoon into early evening, with a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) of severe weather remaining for northwest Illinois. - We continue to have multiple days of severe weather risks this week, including an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) for severe storms Tuesday, along with Slight Risks for Wednesday and Friday. - Warm and seasonably humid conditions are expected through much of this week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 214 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Not much change for our severe weather potential this afternoon into early this evening, with a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for areas along and north of Galena, IL southeast towards Galva, IL, and a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) along and north of a line from Sigourney, IA to south-central Hancock county, IL. After any early evening storms dissipate over northwest Illinois, attention will quickly turn to any storms that have developed along a warm front/surface low over northwestern Iowa into southern Minnesota, northwest of our area. The latest high-res CAMs have some slight variation of just how far south the convection will reach. It's possible that our northern CWA could be clipped by this activity, which appears likely to be in a weakening phase but could still pose a locally gusty wind threat. In the wake of this activity, we should also see some fog develop late tonight into early Tuesday morning, owing to the abundant low-level moisture we have in place. Models suggest that once the northern activity moves out, there should be a brief respite from the severe threat Tuesday morning (and perhaps through most, if not all, of the afternoon hours) before yet another round of severe storms develop late in the afternoon through the evening. Tuesday's severe threat is higher for us compared to today due to another approaching surface low over western Iowa, along with a frontal boundary setting up across our region. The environment appears to be primed for severe storms, with the 13.12z HREF ensemble SBCAPE values progged around the 2500-3500 J/kg and deep-layer shear values around 40 to 50 knots. A southwesterly LLJ around 30-40 knots should also help add more lift and theta-e advection to the environment, along with enhancing low- level shear magnitudes. With steep mid-level lapse rates expected, as well, all hazards are expected with this convection. CAMs suggest convective morphology to initially begin as discrete supercells along the boundary, which would be supportive of a large hail and tornado threat. Convection could consolidate into a multicell cluster, which would then support a damaging wind threat by the late evening and Tuesday night period. With this said, SPC maintained the Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) for severe storms along and north of line from southern Putnam county, IL to northern Van Buren county, IA, with a Slight Risk elsewhere. Another thing that could become problematic is a signal in the CAMs for some training convection Tuesday night as storms develop along the boundary. Pwat values are progged around 1 to 1.5 inches, along with a persistent LLJ impinging on the boundary. If rainfall becomes heavy over a single location, especially if it is a more urban area, overnight flash flooding could become a concern. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 214 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 For Wednesday through Friday, the active pattern will only continue as an upper-level longwave trough moves through the area Wednesday, followed by yet another one on Friday. We continue to be outlooked by SPC for Slight Risks both days in our region. Much uncertainty remains on the timing and severity as prior convection can augment the environment, but the various machine learning severe probability tools suggest these days to be volatile from an environmental perspective, so more severe storm potential is expected later this week. Stay up to date on these severe weather threats! A quick look ahead to the upcoming weekend shows a calmer pattern developing for Saturday and Sunday as upper-level ridging develops to the west. A cold front should bring more seasonal temperatures to the area. In fact, we could be dealing with our first bout of frost/freeze conditions during this growing season Saturday night. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 624 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 VFR conditions with warm south winds gusting to 20-25kts will continue through the early evening tonight. Clouds will be scattered and should allow for a decoupling of the winds after sunset. Warm moist air will continue to stream into the region aloft tonight, and this will be associated with a strong low level jet from the SW/WSW overnight, resulting in a forecast for Low level wind shear overnight, through mid morning Tuesday. Storms will be north of the area this evening, or east, resulting in dry weather until late tonight, when strong storms to the north, could (20-35% chance) drop southeast into eastern Iowa and northern Illinois between 08z and 12Z in the morning. I've included Prob30 at CID and DBQ for this potential, but farther south, left things dry as the odds of it dropping that far south are low. If storms do move into the area overnight, heavy rain and gusty winds would be associated with them. A period of MVFR or even possibly some IFR low clouds and light fog is possible late tonight and through mid morning in this warm moist air spreading in. After these low clouds scatter our by mid morning Tuesday, a warm dry day is expected, until another round of storms arrives towards mid to late afternoon into early evening. This round of storms could be severe with all modes of severe weather possible, including heavy rain, strong winds, hail, and tornadoes. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Schultz LONG TERM...Schultz/Uttech AVIATION...Ervin  227 FXUS63 KFSD 132341 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 641 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms return this afternoon and evening. Scattered strong to severe storms expected - greatest risk for southwestern Minnesota into adjacent areas of South Dakota and northwest Iowa. Timing of greatest concern is 4 to 9 PM. - Main hazards are large hail greater than 2 inches in diameter and wind gusts to 70 mph. A tornado or two are also possible. Have a severe weather plan and multiple ways to receive warnings. - Periodic chances (20-60%) for showers and thunderstorms continue this week. Details remain uncertain at this time. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 238 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Scattered thunderstorms are set to develop over the next few hours, bringing the potential for a few severe storms with large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two. As of 2 pm, a surface low is located over northern Nebraska with a warm front extending northeast of it across far southeastern South Dakota into northwest Iowa. Dew points in the 60s have been gradually spreading northward, and these higher dew points are expected to reach the I-90 corridor over the next couple of hours. This boundary will be the focus of initial storm development, with these storms having access to 35-50 kts of effective bulk shear and 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. There are questions though on how much some high clouds have limited the area from reaching full heating potential, but if a storm can get going then steep mid level lapse rates of 7.5-8.5 degrees C/km and mostly straight, elongated hodographs will favor large hail to around 2 inches in diameter or larger. The secondary threat will be damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph. If a storm can get rooted to the aforementioned surface warm front, then a tornado or two will also be possible. Can't rule out a strong tornado either, primarily over southwest Minnesota. As the low pressure system drift across the area, a few additional showers and storms look to develop farther south across northwest Iowa (down to about IA Highway-3, or just north of US Highway-20) within the warm sector around sunset. These storms could also be on the strong to severe side, with an isolated instance of quarter sized hail and 60 mph as the threats. Showers and storms will exit off to our east by the mid evening hours, leaving mostly quiet conditions in its wake. A few showers may develop in central South Dakota prior to daybreak Tuesday, but dry air should win out and prevent most if not all of this from reaching the ground. Patchy fog will also be possible by early Tuesday morning across portions of northwest Iowa and southwest Minnesota as winds turn light and variable overnight and ample moisture remains in place. Temperatures tonight drop mainly in the 40s, though some 50s are possible in our easternmost areas. Low chances for showers continue into the day on Tuesday, but activity is expected to remain spotty at best as rain continues to battle a dry sub cloud layer. Highs will range from the 60s northwest to 70s southeast. Rain chances look to increase Tuesday night into Wednesday as two shortwave troughs impact our area. The best chances of rain and storms look to be over northwest Iowa and adjacent areas of Nebraska, South Dakota, and Minnesota. At this time, severe weather looks unlikely with this system as the better instability looks to be off to our south and east. Rain and storms exit off to our east by Wednesday night, leading to a dry Thursday. Winds look to increase on Thursday especially west of I-29 closer to a deepening surface low, and winds may take on a southwesterly component especially in south central South Dakota. This could lead to another day with higher fire danger as temperatures will be warm and relative humidity values drop to 25% or below mainly along and west of the James River. Still some uncertainty into how breezy the winds will be, so keep up to date with the latest forecast. Not too much time to look into the extended forecast given the near term severe weather threat, but guidance is in fairly good agreement that the western trough will begin to move into our area by the end of the work week/early weekend. This could bring more rain and storms to our area on Friday and then colder weather into Saturday as guidance indicates a stronger push of cold air advection behind this system. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 641 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 VFR conditions are expected for the majority of the period. Thunderstorms, some severe producing 2+ inch hail, are ongoing east of I-29 in northwest Iowa and southwest Minnesota. These storms will continue to track northeast through about 14.03Z. Some patchy dense fog is possible near daybreak east of I-29. This should burn off by mid morning. A few light rain showers are possible again Wednesday afternoon but confidence is too low to include in the TAFs at this time. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Samet AVIATION...AJP  702 FXUS64 KMEG 132342 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 642 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 642 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 - Dry and warm conditions will return Tuesday, followed by a gradual warming trend through late week. By Friday, near record high temperatures are expected. - A passing upper level disturbance and weak surface cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms on Thursday, mainly to areas along and north of Interstate 40. - Following a hot and dry day on Friday, rain chances will return late Saturday, associated with the passage of a cold front. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Sunday) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A fairly static upper air pattern will prevail over the CONUS this week, characterized by an anonymously strong ridge over the Gulf and the Southeast, and negative upper height anomalies over the intermountain west. Through Wednesday, the primary storm track will extend between these two regions, from Texas into the Upper Midwest. By Wednesday night, height falls will begin impinging over the Ozarks, associated with an upper trough lifting through the central Great Plains. Medium range guidance depicts this upper trough deepening as it lifts to the Ohio River Valley by midday Thursday. This feature will bring midlevel height falls to the Midsouth, along with an increase of 0-6km bulk shear to 45 knots to the north of I-40. While depicted kinematics appear supportive of severe storms, the morning timing of height falls and surface boundary passage cast uncertainty on the amount of instability and resultant severe weather threat. Timing may evolve in future model runs, but at this time, the 00Z LREF showed good inter- member timing agreement. A deepening longwave trough will move to the northern and central Rockies on Friday, accompanied by downstream amplification of the upper ridge over the Gulf. Friday will likely be the warmest day of the week, with a high of 90 in Memphis - 1 degree shy of the record set in 2006. The western U.S. upper trough will lift into the Upper Midwest on Saturday. The northerly track notwithstanding, this feature will bring height falls to the Midsouth that are sufficient to drive a surface cold frontal passage. A pre-frontal maritime tropical airmass will provide PWATs between 1.5-1.75 inches - above the 90th percentile for April. Given the expected progressive nature of the front, QPF is currently expected to be less than an inch and certainly not a drought-breaker. A cool and dry day is forecast for Sunday, with highs 3 to 5 degrees below normal. Thereafter, the upper ridge over the Gulf will amplify, ahead of another potential deep upper low over the western U.S. The early part of next week appears warm and humid. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 642 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 High confidence (>80% chance) for VFR conditions as upper-level ridging builds back in through the 00Z TAF period. The nearby tight pressure gradient will result in elevated south winds. South winds will decrease slightly early this evening but remain elevated through the night. Winds will increase with mixing on Tuesday, sustained between 15-20 kts with gusts approaching 25- 30 kts at MEM and JBR. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1223 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Well above normal temperatures will result in minimum relative humidity in the 30 to 40 percent range Tuesday and Wednesday. A weak wind shift will accompany clouds and scattered thunderstorms Thursday. Wetting rainfall will be most likely to occur north of the I-40 corridor. Low minimum relative humidity will return on Friday, as temperatures warm to near 90 degrees. Wetting rainfall chances return late Saturday, associated with a cold frontal passage. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB AVIATION...CJC  677 FXUS64 KMRX 132342 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 742 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 739 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 - A warming trend with above normal temperatures expected through this week. Record highs are possible. - There is very limited chances for light rain through the forecast period. This will result in worsening drought and fire weather conditions. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 121 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A large high pressure ridge will remain over FL/Gulf/western Atlantic through this forecast period, which will provide above normal temperatures and generally dry conditions to the Southern Appalachians and TN Valley. We are seeing a good amount of cloud cover today from a jet streak and shortwave trough passing by to our north, but once that passes to our east tonight, mostly sunny clear will return. High temps tomorrow will approach records for the date, with the same expected on Wednesday. Low RH values will be of concern for fire weather interests, bottoming out in the 25-35% range both days for most locations, but thankfully the SW winds will be mainly in the 5-15 mph range. With these lighter winds, we do not anticipate the need for any Fire Danger statements over the next few days. Models show the ridge drifting southward a bit on Thursday, allowing a mid/upper level trough and jet streak to cross the region. NBM has been trending higher with rain chances, which are now in the chance range north of I-40 Thursday afternoon and evening. Looking at the NAM forecast soundings Thursday afternoon, there is a strong stable and dry layer that will have to be overcome for any measurable precip, leading to skepticism of the NBM PoPs. Don't get your hopes up for any meaningful rainfall just yet. Highs will be pushing near records again on Friday and Saturday as the ridge amplifies northward again. Better rain chances may exist on Sunday as models show a deeper trough developing over the Plains that could push a cold front through our area. Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 04-14 87(2010) 86(1887) 85(1938) 88(2017) 04-15 87(2006) 87(1936) 85(1945) 86(2024) 04-16 89(2002) 87(1896) 87(2002) 88(2002) 04-17 91(1955) 90(1896) 85(2002) 88(1955) 04-18 90(2002) 90(1896) 87(2002) 89(2002) 04-19 91(2002) 90(1941) 90(1941) 90(2002) && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 739 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 SE ridging will dominate with daytime wind gusts a bit weaker tomorrow compared to this afternoon. VFR and dry to continue with mid to high level CIG. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 59 87 58 88 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 59 85 59 86 / 0 10 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 57 85 56 86 / 10 10 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 54 82 56 84 / 10 10 0 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...DGS AVIATION...KS  929 FXUS62 KFFC 132342 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 742 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New 00Z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 738 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 - Fire weather concerns will persist this week given the ongoing very dry and warm conditions. A Red Flag Warning is in effect across far north Georgia with a Fire Danger Statement to the south through this evening. - Temperatures will remain well above normal through the weekend. Some could approach daily record highs by mid-week. - With little chance of appreciable rainfall over the next 7 days drought conditions will worsen. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 149 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 There will be no change with respect to the ongoing hot and dry stretch with temperatures resuming their upward swing on Tuesday. Atlantic high pressure will maintain its grip at the surface while the resurgent ridge will keep any precipitation/frontal boundaries repelled well to our north and west. Without the impact of today's broken high clouds, highs will warm back into the mid to upper 80s on Tuesday with a few 90 degree readings possibly sneaking into parts of central Georgia. Dangerous fire weather conditions will persist with details expounded upon in the Fire Weather section of the AFD below. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday morning through next Sunday) Issued at 149 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Very Warm and Dry Pattern Continues: A strong ridge extending from the Gulf up across the Southeast US will keep very warm and dry conditions in place throughout this week. This persistent weather can be attributed to a textbook omega-block synoptic pattern, with deep troughing on both sides of the ridge. Dry air from the mid to high latitudes wrapping around the east side of the ridge will keep PWAT values over Georgia generally under 0.75-1", resulting in near zero rainfall chances. One exception to this could be late Thursday, as model guidance continues to have a shortwave pushing across the Midwest and TN Valley. Rainfall chances with this feature will depend on how strong it is as crashes into the ridge, but for now it looks like a 10-20% chance for rain showers in very far NW GA. The dry airmass and low rain chances this week will only worsen our ongoing drought conditions, and likely lead to daily fire weather concerns. High and low temperatures during this period will end up around 12-20 degrees above normal. This will translate to high temperatures in the 80s to low 90s through Saturday. Daily records would be in jeopardy with those temps, and we could see our earliest 90 degree day on record for the Atlanta area. Overnight lows will only drop to the low to mid 60s. The one benefit of the lower moisture/humidity is that heat index values would not be a concern during this period. Cooler with Slight Rain Chances Late This Weekend? Confidence in the forecast starts to drop off after Saturday due to a fairly large spread in model guidance, but there continues to be a growing number of ensemble members showing the synoptic pattern finally starting to breakdown and progress. This progression, with the ridge over the Southeast getting kicked out while broad troughing sets up over most of the Eastern US, would initially bring a cold front and rain chances through the area, with cooler and dry conditions to follow for early next week. Unfortunately, most of the latest ensemble members do not have much moisture with this front, and only have a decent chance of 0.10" of rainfall in far NW GA. If this forecast holds, most of the area will continue to remain rain-free through at least early next week, worsening drought conditions even further. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 738 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 VFR conds to continue with primarily SKC/FEW cigs at 20-25kft. Winds will remain out of the SW at 5-10kts, and may go CALM/VRB at times overnight. //ATL Confidence...00Z Update... High confidence all elements. 96 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 56 86 59 88 / 0 0 0 0 Atlanta 60 86 61 87 / 0 0 0 0 Blairsville 55 82 55 85 / 0 0 0 0 Cartersville 58 87 58 89 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 57 87 58 88 / 0 0 0 0 Gainesville 59 85 60 87 / 0 0 0 0 Macon 55 87 57 89 / 0 0 0 0 Rome 57 87 57 89 / 0 0 0 0 Peachtree City 56 86 57 87 / 0 0 0 0 Vidalia 58 89 60 92 / 0 0 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ001>009- 011>016-019>021-030. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM....Culver AVIATION...96  504 FXUS61 KBTV 132343 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 743 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 303 PM EDT Monday... Removed wind advisory and made minor tweaks to temperatures and timing of precip through midweek. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 303 PM EDT Monday... 1. Showers with embedded thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday with a couple of stronger storms possible, mainly south of Route 4. 2. Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected Wednesday and Thursday as boundary remains draped across our forecast area. 3. A more amplified weather pattern will lead to mainly dry and warm conditions early in the weekend, followed by a round of widespread showers and a sharply cooler period Sunday night into Monday. && .DISCUSSION... As of 303 PM EDT Monday... KEY MESSAGE 1: The forecast challenge is amount of clearing and associated sfc heating/instability that can develop on Tues. GOES-19 water vapor imagery shows compact s/w energy moving along the International Border this aftn, while large area of subsidence/dry air aloft is located over the central Great Lake and approaching the SLV. As this moves overhead tonight, expect lowering cloud levels with some patchy fog possible over the northern Dack Valleys. Lows generally in the mid 40s to mid 50s tonight. For Tuesday our s/w energy of interest is currently located over central IA with developing lightning over northern IL/WI. This energy wl quickly move eastward in the fast 700-500mb flow aloft and being located over the eastern Great Lakes by 12z Tues. Upstream satl imagery shows a rather messy warm sector in regards to plenty of clouds and feel this could influence our sfc heating/instability acrs our cwa on Tues. Weak sfc low pres is expected to travel along boundary draped near the International Border on Tues with very warm 925mb to 850mb thermal profiles, but soundings low clouds stuck under the inversion in the morning and mid/upper lvl convective debris clouds developing by early aftn, which wl probably limit sfc heating. HREF shows the greatest potential for sfc based CAPE profiles >500 J/kg south of a SLK to LEB line of 40 to 60%, with highest potential mainly south of Route 4. Meanwhile, the probability of 0 to 6 km shear >50 knots is 80 to 100% near the International Border, indicating strongest winds are north and best deep layer instability is south. NAM 12KM/NAM 3KM solutions are the most aggressive with sfc/mu CAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg into our central/southern cwa, while HRRR/WRF NSSL and RAP are <500 J/kg. This wl become a nowcasting scenario on Tuesday, watching if clouds can dissipate and timing of boundary crossing our cwa for determining how robust convection can develop. For now a few stronger storms are possible mainly Rutland/Windsor counties, but feel greatest action wl be south of our cwa. The latest SPC day2 outlook continues to place part of our cwa in a Marginal Risk (1 out of 5). Temps are very challenging on Tues as 925mb temps would suggest highs well into the mid 70s to lower 80s, but clouds and precip with sharpening boundary wl have significant impacts on highs. Have mid 60s SLV to near 80F VSF. KEY MESSAGE 2: An active pattern is expected for Weds and Thurs as boundary remains draped acrs our cwa with multiple s/w's riding in the westerly flow aloft producing additional chcs for precip. Boundary position and clouds wl have significant impact on temps and sfc instability for both Weds/Thurs. Latest trends indicate additional s/w energy arriving acrs our western cwa by 15z with some instability possible acrs our central/southern fa. Clouds and precip wl impact thermal profiles and associated thermal dynamics. Any stronger/deeper convection wl have the potential to produce localized heavy downpours, especially with pw values approaching 1.5" or 2 to 3 std above normal on Weds. Similar type temp profile as Tuesday with greatest probability of mid 70s acrs Rutland/Windsor counties, with coolest air over the northern SLV/CPV and parts of the NEK. Little change in the large scale synoptic pattern is anticipated on Thursday, as additional s/w dynamics and moisture in the westerly 700 to 500mb flow impacts our cwa. Additional showers with embedded storms are expected, with some localized heavy downpours possible. As always, the instability wl be driving factor on how strong storms can become, but progged 925mb temps are very warm again with values in the 14-18C range. If sun develops highs easily in the 70s, but if clouds prevail with occasional showers, temps mostly hold in the upper 50s to mid 60s. KEY MESSAGE 3: The large scale pattern for Friday shows anticyclonic flow building in while low level temperatures remain well above normal (still near the 90th percentile for 850 millibar temperatures during the afternoon). There is some uncertainty in the position of the incoming ridge and how much northerly flow develops, so temperatures in northern valleys could trend lower. A scenario with low level westerly rather than northerly flow will lead to a warmer day by several degrees (such as a high near 70 rather than low 60s). Said scenario also would lead to some instability (highest values in the cluster mean are near or above 500 J/kg). Therefore, the slight chance of thunder currently indicated in southern portions of Vermont for Friday afternoon looks reasonable. That being said, with the ridging expected and lack of a trigger for showers, precipitation chances should become low from Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon. Think the ensemble probabilities of rain, about 25-50% through this period, are a bit high relative to forecaster thinking. Probabilities of 0.1" or greater, in the 10 to 15% range for most locations, seems like a better estimate of actual rain chances. Widespread showers then are on track to approach the area from the west late Saturday into Sunday in advance of a well defined cold front. A primary low pressure system will far to our northwest; some indications exist that a weak secondary low could develop along the front. Regardless, a heavy rainfall is not expected with even the 90th percentile 24 hour QPF in ensemble guidance below 1" at this time. There is only a weak signal for thunderstorms in machine learning statistical guidance, which would only occur with a slower frontal timing. Better instability will likely be well to our south ahead of the front, and most likely timing seems to be lined up more in the overnight timeframe, limiting potential for surface instability. Temperatures Sunday are highly uncertain due to differences in timing of the anticipated cold front and degree of cooling in its wake. With a slower passage, there is some potential for warm conditions again, although less likely than on Friday or Saturday. By Monday a much colder air mass will likely arrive as a secondary cold front pushes through Sunday night. Any precipitation could be in the form of elevationally dependent snow showers, as 925 millibar northwesterly flow comes with temperatures plunging below the 25th percentile at around -1 to -3 Celsius. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 00Z Wednesday...A weak trough is approaching the Champlain Valley with scattered showers and there are mostly southwest winds 5 to 10 mph, but some variability. Some visibility reductions and ceilings between 1000-3500 ft agl are present as well. A sharper trough will shift southeast around 02z-04z. Some lower ceilings will be possible. After 06z, winds will trend light and variable. Any breaks in cloud could produce some fog, mainly for KEFK/KSLK/KMPV. At 12-14z, south to southeast winds, except remaining northeast at KMSS, will develop. Ceilings should come up, but it will be short lived as showers shift east between 15z and 00z. There are some timing differences, and there is also the potential for thunder. Given the uncertainty, TAFs show SHRA. Some LLWS is also expected as southwest to west winds at 2000 ft agl increase along the next batch of precipitation. Outlook... Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA. Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Thursday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. NO SIG WX. && .EQUIPMENT... The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service. This site is not serviced by the NWS. An estimated return to service is May 1st. Please contact us if you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational forecast. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Taber DISCUSSION...Taber/Kutikoff AVIATION...Haynes EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV  656 FXUS61 KAKQ 132344 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 744 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the forecast at this time. Updated aviation discussion for 18z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Well above-normal temperatures this week, with record to near- record temperatures possible by midweek. 2) Continued dry with fire weather concerns expected for much of the week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 205 PM EDT Monday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Well above-normal temperatures this week, with record to near- record temperatures possible by midweek. Surface high offshore has settled offshore of the northeast coast, and will build south into the western Atlantic through midweek. The resulting persistent return flow will lock in a very warm, dry SSW flow regime for much of the week ahead. This Bermuda High set-up, more typical of early to mid summer, will allow for temperatures to increase to well above normal through the next several days. Highs tomorrow climb into the upper 80s to near 90F tomorrow, with low 90s (to isolated mid 90s) Wednesday into the upcoming weekend. Slightly cooler upper 80s across the Eastern Shore and near the coast through the week. These temperatures are likely to challenge record high temperatures across the area, with the current records at our long-term climate sites noted in the climate section below. With the strong high firmly in place across the area through at least the end of the week, any fronts approaching the region will wash out before reaching our area. Global model ensembles continue to suggest that a stronger front drops across the area late in the upcoming weekend, with at least a slight chance of rain in its wake. Meanwhile, building east coast trough will finally serve to break the heat ridge early next week. KEY MESSAGE 2...Continued dry with fire weather concerns expected for much of the week. With high pressure dominating our weather pattern, and no appreciable precipitation expected through the end of the week, fire weather concerns will remain an issue to monitor for much of the week ahead. After collaboration with state forestry officials and surrounding weather offices, will not be issuing any further Increased Fire Statements at this time. While breezy return flow continues tomorrow, winds/gusts are not quite as high tomorrow. That said, RH values are, and will continue to be dry, averaging 25-30% inland, 30-35% closer to the coast. Overall though, fire wx conditions remain a bit above critical fire wx thresholds tomorrow through midweek. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 745 PM EDT Monday... High pressure offshore of the region will favor VFR conditions through the TAF period and beyond. Mid-high clouds persist through tonight, before skies become mostly clear/sunny for the day Tuesday. 5-10 kt SW winds are generally expected tonight, along with LLWS at SBY through 07z. Gusty SW winds (to ~20 kt) return Tuesday afternoon, especially after 16/17z or so. Outlook: VFR and dry conditions are expected to prevail through Saturday. S-SW winds also prevail throughout the forecast period, as high pressure settles over the western Atlantic. && .MARINE... As of 225 PM EDT Monday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories remain in effect across the upper rivers, Chesapeake Bay, and northern coastal waters this afternoon. - A period of elevated southwest winds is possible Thursday night. High pressure remains offshore through the week as a ridge aloft builds over the Eastern CONUS. As such, winds remain predominantly SW through the remainder of the week around 10-15 kt. However, a period of stronger SW winds remains ongoing this afternoon with winds of 15-20 kt and gusts up to 25 kt (lower across the southern coastal waters and Currituck Sound). As such, SCAs have been extended until 6 PM across the Ches Bay and upper rivers. SCAs remain in effect until 4 AM Tue across the northern coastal waters due to a combination of 4-5 ft seas and gusts up to 25 kt. Generally sub-SCA conditions are expected from Tue through Thu outside of occasional periods of elevated winds each evening. Another period of SCA conditions is possible Thu evening/Thu night due to elevated SW winds, however, this surge appears marginal at this time. Otherwise, the next best chance for SCA conditions isn't until Sun-Mon as a cold front moves through the region. Waves and seas were 2-3 ft and 3-5 ft respectively this afternoon. Waves and seas subside to 1-2 ft and 2-4 ft respectively later tonight, remaining generally below SCA criteria through late week outside of a brief period of 4-5 ft seas across the northern coastal waters on Thu night. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temps for 4/13 - 4/16 Record Record Record Record High/Year High/Year High/Year High/Year Location 4/13 4/14 4/15 4/16 -------- ---- ----- ------ ------ Richmond 91 (1977) 90 (1977) 92 (1941) 93 (1976) Norfolk 88 (1977) 90 (1941) 90 (2024) 91 (1976) Salisbury 87 (2023) 87 (1941) 87 (1941) 89 (1976) Eliz. City 90 (1948) 90 (1941) 91 (1941) 90 (1941) Record High Min Temps for 4/13 - 4/16 Record Record Record Record High High High High Min T/Year Min T/Year Min T/Year Min T/Year Location 4/13 4/14 4/15 4/16 -------- ---- ----- ------ ------ Richmond 64 (1994) 65 (1899) 64 (2018) 64 (1912) Norfolk 65 (1994) 68 (2019) 68 (1941) 66 (2017) Salisbury 62 (2019) 65 (1945) 64 (2002) 63 (2017) Eliz. City 67 (2019) 68 (2019) 68 (1974) 68 (1994) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650-652. && $$ DISCUSSION...MAM/NB AVIATION...SW MARINE...ERI/RMM CLIMATE...MAM  373 FXUS66 KMTR 132344 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 444 PM PDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1125 AM PDT Mon Apr 13 2026 - Slightly cooler to near normal temperatures through Thursday - Periods of gusty winds, especially at higher elevations Wednesday through Friday - Warmer temperatures return Friday and Saturday before unsettled weather returns for early next week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1125 AM PDT Mon Apr 13 2026 (This afternoon through Tuesday) Lingering rain showers persist over the Pacific late this morning with these forecast to diminish through the afternoon and evening. The RRFS (rapid refresh forecast system) and other CAMs (convection- allowing models) indicate the potential for isolated rain showers across the higher terrain of the southern Diablo Range and Santa Lucia Range this afternoon, diminishing as the sunsets. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions return to the region this afternoon with afternoon temperatures forecast to be in the upper 50s to low 60s near the coast and low-to-upper 60s across the interior. However, the highest peaks may not reach much above the upper 40s to low 50s. Tonight, temperatures will be chilly across the interior North Bay Valleys and interior Central Coast with mid-to-upper 30s expected. There is a low end potential for frost, yet widespread coverage in not currently anticipated. Elsewhere, temperatures will range from the low 40s to near 50 degrees F (warmest near the coast). For Tuesday, expecting dry conditions with temperatures warming regionwide by a few degrees as a shortwave ridge builds in wake of the exiting trough. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1125 AM PDT Mon Apr 13 2026 (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Additional warming is expected on Wednesday, but only again by a few degrees. All of this is ahead of an approaching frontal boundary that is forecast to be mostly dry. However, there are chances across far northern Napa and Sonoma counties Wednesday afternoon and evening, generally less than 25%. This said, there very well may be light precipitation as far south as the Central Coast as the front moves across the region late Wednesday evening and into early Thursday morning. Little to no measurable rainfall expected with this system. In wake of this system, offshore winds are forecast to be strongest across the North Bay Mountains and East Bay hills Thursday and into Friday. This will be as the exiting system shifts into the Great Basin and/or Intermountain West. There still is some uncertainty with the exact track of this system, thus less confidence in the strength of offshore winds. However, widespread wetting rainfall across the region has greatly reduced fire weather concerns (at least in the short term). Weak ridging will build in behind the aforementioned system on Friday and Saturday with temperatures returning to near seasonal averages along with dry weather. Unsettled weather looks to return late Saturday and into early next week as another mid/upper level trough drops out of the Gulf of Alaska and approaches the West Coast. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 444 PM PDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Vicinity of SFO... SFO Bridge Approach... Monterey Bay Terminals... && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 444 PM PDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Rain showers linger through the morning before diminishing into the afternoon. Winds stay light through early afternoon, increasing to a moderate to fresh northwesterly breeze through Wednesday. Winds build again on Thursday leading to near gale force gusts into the end of the work week. Moderate seas continue through Wednesday before rough seas arrive on Thursday. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...RGass LONG TERM....RGass AVIATION...Flynn MARINE...RGass Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  063 FXUS64 KCRP 132344 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 644 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 638 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 - Moderate Rip Current Risk today through Tuesday. - Minor coastal flooding possible the latter part of the week. - Shower and thunderstorm chances increase this weekend with the arrival of a cold front. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 121 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A few very weak showers will continue to stream northward across S TX this afternoon and again starting early Tuesday morning. These weak showers will likely only produce trace amounts and most locations will remain dry. Otherwise, the work week will generally be dry with above normal temperatures. The next chance of showers and thunderstorms is Saturday and Sunday associated with a cold front. Chances are low to medium (20-45%). Forecasted temperatures behind the front on Sunday will be a few degrees below normal with highs in the 70s area-wide. Due to model discrepancies and this weekend being several days out, confidence is low that the cold front will move through S TX. The forecast will continue to be fine tuned as the weekend approaches. So, stayed tuned! There is a Moderate Rip Current Risk today through Tuesday due to swell periods 6-8 seconds, and southeast winds 10-15 knots. Minor coastal flooding is not expected but can not be ruled out through Wednesday. The PETSS indicates increasing tide levels the latter part of the week, which may lead to water reaching the dunes at high tide starting Thursday. The better chance of coastal flooding is expected behind the weekend cold front. This is due to forecasted winds out of the northeast at 20-25 knots along with an increasing swell period. The swells may also lead to an increasing rip current risk. This all hinges on frontal passage. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 638 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through later this evening before falling back to MVFR levels overnight. A return to VFR is forecast to occur around mid to late Tuesday morning. Current breezy SE winds will decouple over the next few hours to below 12 knots, but gusty winds will resume by late Tuesday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 121 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A Moderate to Fresh (BF 4-5) onshore flow will persist through the week. A brief strong (BF 6) breeze will be possible each afternoon from south of Port Aransas to Baffin Bay. A strong onshore flow is expected to develop across all marine zones on Friday with advisory conditions possible. Winds relax Saturday, then shift to the northeast early Sunday followed by an increase to a Fresh to possibly a strong flow in response to a cold front. Low rain chances (<15%) expected through the end of the workweek but increase this weekend as the cold front moves across the region. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 121 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 The chance for wetting rains through the work week are very low (<10%) along with continued above normal temperatures. Moderate onshore flow (10-20 mph) will generally keep minimum RH values above 30-40% range during the period. Based on the forecasted above normal moisture and low ERC values, elevated fire weather is not expected at this time. The chance of thunderstorms increases over the weekend as a cold front moves across South Texas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 71 83 71 84 / 10 10 0 0 Victoria 69 84 69 85 / 10 10 0 0 Laredo 73 92 72 91 / 10 0 10 10 Alice 70 87 70 88 / 10 10 0 10 Rockport 72 82 73 83 / 10 10 0 0 Cotulla 71 90 71 89 / 10 0 10 20 Kingsville 71 85 71 86 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 73 80 73 80 / 10 10 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TE/81 AVIATION...ANM/88  090 FXUS65 KABQ 132345 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 545 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 545 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 - Strong and gusty spring winds will continue through this evening, then return Tuesday, Thursday and Friday, with the strongest winds each day across eastern NM. Hazardous crosswinds will create difficult travel for large and high-profile vehicles. - Critical fire weather conditions with also return to New Mexico several days this week. Critical fire weather conditions will persist this afternoon across northeast NM, then return across portions of the area Tuesday, Thursday and Friday. - Temperatures are expected to drop below freezing Friday night across many areas. Take precautions to protect early blooming plants. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 158 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Strong southwest winds have developed across much of the area today. These winds will persist through early evening before slowly diminishing. Light rain and virga showers are also developing across western NM early this afternoon ahead of the upper level low over SoCal. These will continue to expand, and slightly increase in intensity, through the evening hours. Wetting precipitation remains unlikely through sunset. Showers will continue off and on overnight across the northern mountains. Snow levels will fall to near 8500 feet, so a changeover to snow is expected across the high peaks and a few inches of accumulation is possible at the highest elevations. The upper level low will lift northeastward and weaken on Tuesday as it crosses SE UT and moves into CO. As the system crosses SE UT Tuesday morning, another round of light showers and a few thunderstorms will impact northwest and north central NM. These showers will be brief, then strong southwest to west winds will develop once again. Winds will be a bit stronger on Tuesday than they are today areawide. Northeast NM will see the strongest winds as a sfc low deepens to near 995-998mb across SE CO and some of the H7 flow of 35 to 40kt mixes to the surface. Gusts near 50 mph appear likely, thus have issued a Wind Advisory for much of NE NM between noon and 7pm. Temperatures on Tuesday will fall a few degrees from today's readings, thanks to a Pacific cold front tracking from west to east through the aftn. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 158 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A weak trough, loosely attendant to the main upper low, will cross NM on Wednesday with little fanfare. A few breezes will be noted across east central NM, but far lighter than today or Tuesday. The next storm system will dive southward toward northern UT from the PacNW on Thursday before crossing CO on Friday. Southwest flow will increase on Thursday in response to the approaching system. By late afternoon, H7 winds will be near 30kt, but mixing heights will approach H5 where winds will be closer to 40-45kt. Breezy to windy conditions will be felt areawide, though likely shy of any Wind Advisories. That will change on Friday, however. As the system crosses CO, the base of the trough will cross squarely over NM. In addition to mountain wave activity that morning as H7 winds approach 50kt, daytime mixing and a Pacific front will bring strong and gusty winds to most areas. Strongest winds will be felt across northern NM, and provided the timing remains the same, the strongest gusts may very well be with the frontal passage. Blowing dust will be possible, especially as moisture from recent rainfall will have evaporated after several days of dry and windy conditions. Once the winds relax Friday night, excellent radiational cooling conditions are expected. Many areas are expected to drop below freezing, with hard freezes possible and many northern and western locations. Even portions of the ABQ metro will get close to freezing. Quiet conditions are expected for Saturday. There are some indications that Gulf moisture will begin to seep back into NM on Sunday, though not looking like much precipitation will occur, yet. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 545 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Virga to light rain and mountain peak snow showers will continue to cross western and central NM through this evening tapering off before midnight. Gusty and erratic winds expected from this activity. Elevated south to southwest winds across the higher terrain overnight. A band of rain and mountain snow showers moves into far western NM before sunrise Tuesday. Brief periods of MVFR conditions from these showers, including KGUP and potentialy KFMN. Rain and snow showers taper off during the mid to late morning hours. Gusty southwest winds develop across the area late morning. The strongest winds will favor central and eastern NM with peak gusts around 30 to 45 kts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 158 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Critical fire weather conditions are expected on several days this week. For the remainder of today, strong southwesterly winds will persist through early evening areawide, but the lowest RH values will remain across northeast NM. The Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 7pm. Several locations across Colfax and Union counties received near or less than a tenth of an inch over the weekend, and this moisture has likely already evaporated in the fine fuels. On Tuesday, the Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for eastern NM. Some areas of east central NM received between one half inch and 2 inches of rainfall recently (mainly Curry and Roosevelt counties), so ERCs are quite a bit more marginal in this area. Nonetheless, strong southwest winds will redevelop Tuesday afternoon, and will be somewhat stronger than today with gusts up to 50 mph. RH values will fall to near 15 percent across the area as well. Will let the next shift make the final call on which zones to upgrade. Quieter conditions are expected Wednesday, though locally critical fire weather conditions may develop around Clines Corners in the afternoon. Stronger winds return Thursday and Friday. Breezy to windy conditions will be felt nearly areawide on Thursday, but the strongest winds will be across eastern NM. Much drier conditions are also anticipated with RH values dropping below 10 percent for 6 to 10 hours across eastern NM and portions of central NM. By this time, any moisture that fell over the weekend will have little impact, thus critical fire weather conditions appear likely for eastern NM. Even stronger winds are expected on Friday, with gusts topping 50 mph for many areas near and north of I-40. In fact, Friday will likely feature the strongest winds of the week. RH values will again fall below 10 percent across eastern NM, but sub-15% will be common elsewhere. Widespread critical fire conditions will be likely. Quieter conditions on tap for the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 41 59 31 66 / 70 40 0 0 Dulce........................... 31 54 20 61 / 80 70 0 10 Cuba............................ 35 56 27 60 / 60 40 5 5 Gallup.......................... 32 57 23 63 / 50 40 0 0 El Morro........................ 35 55 27 60 / 40 20 0 0 Grants.......................... 34 60 25 65 / 30 20 0 0 Quemado......................... 37 60 29 62 / 20 5 0 0 Magdalena....................... 43 65 35 65 / 10 0 0 5 Datil........................... 40 59 30 61 / 10 5 0 0 Reserve......................... 35 65 26 68 / 40 5 0 0 Glenwood........................ 38 69 30 73 / 50 10 0 0 Chama........................... 31 48 21 53 / 90 70 0 10 Los Alamos...................... 41 57 36 60 / 60 30 5 5 Pecos........................... 37 60 30 61 / 50 10 5 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 36 54 28 57 / 60 30 0 10 Red River....................... 31 44 23 47 / 60 40 5 20 Angel Fire...................... 30 52 20 54 / 50 20 5 10 Taos............................ 34 58 25 61 / 60 30 5 10 Mora............................ 36 59 29 60 / 30 10 5 10 Espanola........................ 41 65 32 67 / 50 30 0 5 Santa Fe........................ 41 60 35 61 / 50 20 5 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 40 63 32 64 / 50 20 5 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 48 68 40 68 / 40 10 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 46 69 42 69 / 40 10 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 45 71 37 71 / 30 10 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 47 69 39 69 / 40 10 0 0 Belen........................... 44 73 34 72 / 30 5 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 46 70 39 70 / 40 10 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 43 72 32 71 / 30 5 0 0 Corrales........................ 47 71 39 70 / 40 10 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 43 71 35 71 / 30 5 0 0 Placitas........................ 47 65 39 65 / 50 10 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 48 69 39 70 / 40 10 0 0 Socorro......................... 48 77 40 74 / 20 0 0 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 44 63 36 62 / 50 10 5 0 Tijeras......................... 44 64 37 64 / 50 10 5 0 Edgewood........................ 42 66 33 64 / 40 10 5 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 38 68 29 66 / 40 5 5 0 Clines Corners.................. 38 64 33 62 / 20 5 5 0 Mountainair..................... 42 67 33 65 / 30 5 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 43 66 35 65 / 20 5 5 0 Carrizozo....................... 50 69 40 67 / 20 0 5 0 Ruidoso......................... 46 63 38 62 / 20 5 5 0 Capulin......................... 38 64 29 61 / 5 0 0 10 Raton........................... 36 66 29 66 / 5 0 0 10 Springer........................ 37 69 30 68 / 5 0 0 5 Las Vegas....................... 40 64 31 64 / 20 5 0 5 Clayton......................... 48 73 40 70 / 0 0 5 5 Roy............................. 44 69 35 67 / 5 0 5 5 Conchas......................... 48 78 38 76 / 5 5 5 0 Santa Rosa...................... 46 74 39 71 / 10 5 5 0 Tucumcari....................... 51 81 42 77 / 5 5 10 0 Clovis.......................... 51 80 46 76 / 0 5 10 0 Portales........................ 51 81 45 77 / 0 10 10 0 Fort Sumner..................... 48 78 41 76 / 5 0 5 0 Roswell......................... 52 83 47 80 / 0 0 5 0 Picacho......................... 49 75 41 72 / 5 0 0 0 Elk............................. 47 73 38 70 / 5 0 5 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ104-123. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for NMZ104-123-125-126. Wind Advisory from noon to 7 PM MDT Tuesday for NMZ227>231. && $$ SHORT TERM...34 LONG TERM....34 AVIATION...71  389 FXUS63 KICT 132346 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 646 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - An isolated severe thunderstorm possible late this afternoon and evening. - Better chances for thunderstorms and associated severe weather Tuesday afternoon-evening, and again late Wednesday. - Additional thunderstorm chances and associated severe weather possible Friday afternoon-evening. - Well above average temperatures through Friday, cool down for next weekend. - Extreme grassland fire danger west of I-135 through Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 312 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 PRECIPITATION: LATE THIS AFTERNOON--EVENING...Today's severe weather threat is conditional, as storm development will likely struggle given only modest dryline convergence and little to no upper forcing for large scale ascent. However, low-level moisture is a bit richer compared to yesterday at this time, which should support weaker convective inhibition. Additionally, there is some CAM support for isolated thunderstorm development. If a storm or two is able to develop, a favorable combination of strong buoyancy and 40-50 kts of effective deep layer shear oriented perpendicular to the dryline would support supercells capable of all severe weather hazards. Area and time would be 5-10 PM generally along/east of the KS Turnpike. TUESDAY AFTERNOON--EVENING...Thunderstorm chances and associated severe weather potential aren't quite as clear cut for late Tuesday, with the overall uncertainty increasing. With the upper wave slowing down some, dryline convergence looks only modest by late Tuesday afternoon, which may prove challenging for widespread convective initiation. However, as the evening progresses large scale forcing increasing from the west in concert with the low-level jet ramping up should support an eventual uptick in thunderstorm coverage. Additionally, any storms that form may tend to evolve toward mixed/messy mode, due to a decent component of the deep layer shear oriented parallel to the NE-SW dryline, which would tend to cut into higher-end severe potential. Despite these uncertainties, we will continue messaging the potential for severe storms given the strong combination of shear/buoyancy ahead of the dryline. Area and time would be generally along/southeast of a line extending from Harper to Wichita to Hillsboro between about 4pm and midnight. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON--EVENING...With model consensus hanging back the parent upper trough, the pre-dryline warm/moist/unstable airmass may should remain intact across the region for additional thunderstorm chances Wednesday afternoon-evening, mainly east of the Kansas Turnpike. However, the quality of the warm sector will be contingent on how widespread Tuesday evening/night thunderstorm activity is. If this scenario pans out, buoyancy and shear combination would favor a severe threat, although strong forcing and shear vectors mostly parallel to the dryline would likely support a mixed/messy/linear storm mode and limit a higher-end severe threat. FRIDAY AFTERNOON--EVENING...Deterministic and ensemble consensus continues to support a reloading warm/moist/unstable sector by late week, as another western CONUS upper trough deepens. A sharpening dryline/cold front combination along with strong instability and shear look to be present. This could support another round of thunderstorms (possibly severe) as we head into late Friday. Still lots of uncertainty this far out regarding timing, placement, and amplitude of synoptic features, stay tuned. TEMPERATURES/WIND: Given rather persistent western CONUS troughing and associated lee troughing over the High Plains, breezy/gusty south winds and above average temperatures look to likely persist through this entire work week. The warmest days look to be today, Tuesday, and Thursday, when low-level thickness supports high temperatures in the 80s for most across the forecast area. As we head into next weekend, model consensus supports a cool down in wake of a strong cold front, with potential below average temperatures Saturday and Sunday, and even possible near freezing temperatures early Sunday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 641 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A few isolated thunderstorms will remain possible through about 03-04z over eastern Kansas, possibly in the vicinity of CNU, as weak dryline convergence persists. Low-level wind shear will get going later this evening and persist into early Tuesday due to a stout southwesterly low- level jet. MVFR ceilings should gradually fill in from the south generally east of the Kansas Turnpike later tonight, as moisture advection continues in the low-level amidst diurnal cooling. Stout/gusty south-southwest winds will prevail Tuesday, with gusts upwards of 30-40 kts, strongest for RSL and GBD in the afternoon. Finally, scattered thunderstorms are expected after about 21-22z Tuesday as a storm system approaches from the west. Severe thunderstorms are possible. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 312 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 TODAY--TUESDAY...Lower relative humidity and gusty southwest winds just west of a dryline will support VERY HIGH to EXTREME grassland fire danger west of Interstate 135 both today and Tuesday. Red flag warning remains in effect through 9pm this evening west of I-135, and the fire weather watch will be upgraded to a red flag warning Tuesday. Otherwise, spring green-up amidst rather high daytime humidity values should keep grassfire danger in check for most areas generally east of I-135 the next 7 days. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033- 047-048-050-067-082-091. Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ032-033- 047-048-050-067-082-091. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADK AVIATION...ADK FIRE WEATHER...ADK  989 FXUS61 KBUF 132347 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 747 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes have been made with this update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Warm with rounds of showers and thunderstorms through mid week. 2) Risk for severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall Tuesday and Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Warm with rounds of showers and thunderstorms through mid week. Eastern CONUS ridge will strengthen this week with western and north central New York on the northern fridge of the high centered over the eastern Gulf. Deep layered southwest flow will keep the region warm and moist through mid week. Several shortwaves will pass through the region on the northern periphery of the eastern ridge, leading to chances for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday. This pattern will favorable warmer than normal temperatures, averaging 10 to as much as 20 degrees above mid April normals. While record high temperatures do not look likely with expected cloud cover and rounds showers, record warm lows will be possible. KEY MESSAGE 2...Risk for severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall Tuesday through Thursday. Nearly stationary frontal boundary lying in the vicinity of southern Ontario and northern New York will keep the area within the warm sector through Thursday. Uncertainty exists with the degree of diurnal instability that may be able to develop, with rounds of showers and cloud cover, however cloud breaks and passing shortwaves will increase chances for severe storms in the Tuesday through Thursday time period. Given the broad southwest flow and open gulf, precipitable water values will be well above average for this time of the year. NAEFS and EPS tables indicating that the precipitable water anomaly may be as much as 2 to 3 standard deviations above mid April climatology, with model means around 1.25 inches. This will support the potential for localized heavy rainfall. Areawide basin average rainfall amounts look to fall in the 1.00" to 2.00" range through Thursday, so although within bank rises will likely be observed on creeks and rivers, the overall threat for more widespread flooding remains low. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A broken line of showers which extends from the lake plains to the Mohawk Valley is expected to weaken while moving southeast through the evening hours. A few showers may brush up against ROC with a brief period of MVFR conditions. As we move into the nighttime hours, flight conditions will deteriorate to MVFR/IFR with some pockets of LIFR across most of area. VFR conditions will persist across interior locations including the Genesee Valley/Finger Lakes region tonight. An area of low pressure will move into the Upper Great Lakes overnight while a warm front approaches the region. Showers and thunderstorms across western Ohio are expected to reach western NY late tonight through Tuesday morning. In the meantime, low level stratus may develop across the eastern Great Lakes and further increase the probability of MVFR or below conditions at KIAG, KBUF, and KART. A low level jet will strengthen over southern Ontario Tuesday and may produce a period of low level wind shear at KIAG/KBUF and KART. Surface winds will increase through the day, which should allow turbulent mixing. Outlook... Tuesday night through Thursday night...VFR/MVFR with some local IFR at times. Numerous rounds of showers and scattered thunderstorms. Friday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of a few showers...and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm across the Southern Tier/interior Finger Lakes. Saturday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of mainly afternoon showers. && .MARINE... Southwest winds and waves will weaken through the evening hours. Small Craft headlines currently in place will drop off from west to east through this evening. South to southwest winds will continue on the lower Great Lakes through the end of the week. There may be periodic upticks to sustained wind speed toward 20 knots, but for the most part speeds should remain at or below 15 knots. Periodic thunderstorm chances will be present through Thursday. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ040- 041. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LOZ042-043. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LOZ044-045. && $$ DISCUSSION...TMA AVIATION...HSK MARINE...HSK/TMA  676 FXUS64 KSJT 132350 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 650 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorm chances will persist Monday into Wednesday, with a threat for severe storms each day. - A cold front is expected on Saturday, bringing low rain chances and considerably cooler temperatures for the upcoming weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 228 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Dryline extended just west of West Central Texas from near Snyder south to Big Spring to east of Ft Stockton. There was some cumulus developing west of Crockett county and in the Big Country. SPC Day One Convective Outlook has been increased the marginal risk of severe thunderstorms, to a slight risk in the Big Country, which extended southward into Runnels, Coleman and Brown Counties. The best potential for severe storm this afternoon and evening is across the Big Country and western sections of the Concho Valley and Crockett county, where the short term convective models develop isolated thunderstorms. Instability is quite high with MUCAPES of 3000 J/KG, with effective bulk shears of 40-45 KTS, so if a storm does develop, it could become severe, with large hail and damaging winds. Storms movement will be mainly northwest, but stronger storms could take a right turn eastward. Tuesday, shower and thunderstorm chances will increase as an upper shortwave approaches from the west. While the best lift will be Tuesday night, thunderstorms possible earlier in the day. There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across most of West Central Texas Tuesday. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Monday) Issued at 235 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 As mentioned in the short term discussion, a shortwave trough will approach the region from the west in the afternoon and evening. Showers and thunderstorms will develop off the dryline and move eastward into the area in the evening and persist into the overnight hours. Most of west central Texas is now in a slight risk for severe weather during this time. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary hazards given moderate instability and steep lapse rates aloft. Convective evolution is less certain during the day on Wednesday as morning storms could limit destabilization in the afternoon. Did lower PoPs in the afternoon especially across our eastern counties. Isolated storms would likely initiate along the dryline by the late afternoon across our western counties. Large hail and damaging winds would once again be in play. Mainly dry conditions are expected on Thursday and Friday, with highs warming into the mid to upper 80s. A cold front is still forecast to move into the area on Saturday bringing cooler temperatures and a chance of showers for the weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 648 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Isolated storms in the far western and northwestern parts of our area will dissipate later this evening after sunset. Considerable high cloud cover will decrease early tonight. With ample low-level moisture return, expect widespread low cloud development across the area after Midnight. Cloud ceilings will be mostly in the MVFR category overnight into mid-morning Tuesday. With a continued influx of low-level moisture on Tuesday, widespread cloud cover will linger into the afternoon. Ceilings should gradually climb above 3000ft at most of our TAF sites in the 19Z-20Z time frame, and around 22Z at KSOA. South winds will continue tonight at 10-15 knots at KABI and 7-10 knots at our TAF sites farther south. On Tuesday, south winds will increase and become gusty by mid-to- late morning. Expect gusts to be around 20 knots at KABI, KSJT and KBBD. Confidence is too low at this time to include a mention of TSRA at our TAF sites during the day Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 68 81 65 82 / 20 40 80 60 San Angelo 65 79 62 82 / 20 40 70 50 Junction 64 80 62 79 / 20 30 50 50 Brownwood 65 80 63 78 / 20 40 60 60 Sweetwater 68 82 64 84 / 20 40 70 40 Ozona 65 75 62 80 / 30 40 60 40 Brady 66 78 64 76 / 20 30 50 50 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....42 AVIATION...19  280 FXUS66 KMTR 132351 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 451 PM PDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1125 AM PDT Mon Apr 13 2026 - Slightly cooler to near normal temperatures through Thursday - Periods of gusty winds, especially at higher elevations Wednesday through Friday - Warmer temperatures return Friday and Saturday before unsettled weather returns for early next week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1125 AM PDT Mon Apr 13 2026 (This afternoon through Tuesday) Lingering rain showers persist over the Pacific late this morning with these forecast to diminish through the afternoon and evening. The RRFS (rapid refresh forecast system) and other CAMs (convection- allowing models) indicate the potential for isolated rain showers across the higher terrain of the southern Diablo Range and Santa Lucia Range this afternoon, diminishing as the sunsets. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions return to the region this afternoon with afternoon temperatures forecast to be in the upper 50s to low 60s near the coast and low-to-upper 60s across the interior. However, the highest peaks may not reach much above the upper 40s to low 50s. Tonight, temperatures will be chilly across the interior North Bay Valleys and interior Central Coast with mid-to-upper 30s expected. There is a low end potential for frost, yet widespread coverage in not currently anticipated. Elsewhere, temperatures will range from the low 40s to near 50 degrees F (warmest near the coast). For Tuesday, expecting dry conditions with temperatures warming regionwide by a few degrees as a shortwave ridge builds in wake of the exiting trough. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1125 AM PDT Mon Apr 13 2026 (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Additional warming is expected on Wednesday, but only again by a few degrees. All of this is ahead of an approaching frontal boundary that is forecast to be mostly dry. However, there are chances across far northern Napa and Sonoma counties Wednesday afternoon and evening, generally less than 25%. This said, there very well may be light precipitation as far south as the Central Coast as the front moves across the region late Wednesday evening and into early Thursday morning. Little to no measurable rainfall expected with this system. In wake of this system, offshore winds are forecast to be strongest across the North Bay Mountains and East Bay hills Thursday and into Friday. This will be as the exiting system shifts into the Great Basin and/or Intermountain West. There still is some uncertainty with the exact track of this system, thus less confidence in the strength of offshore winds. However, widespread wetting rainfall across the region has greatly reduced fire weather concerns (at least in the short term). Weak ridging will build in behind the aforementioned system on Friday and Saturday with temperatures returning to near seasonal averages along with dry weather. Unsettled weather looks to return late Saturday and into early next week as another mid/upper level trough drops out of the Gulf of Alaska and approaches the West Coast. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 444 PM PDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Fair weather cumulus continue to linger across the Bay Area, although the coverage is gradually decreasing as the sun angle starts to increase. There is a chance for MVFR ceilings across all terminals overnight, but the probability varies depending on location. Otherwise winds will remain onshore while gradually decreasing to a gentle breeze overnight. Vicinity of SFO...Strong onshore winds will gradually ease through the evening hours. The biggest question is if SFO will get a ceiling overnight. GFSLAMP guidance shows a 20-30% chance of MVFR ceilings between 12Z and 16Z. Even if ceilings do form Tuesday morning, there is enough instability to virtually eliminate the risk of anything lower than MVFR conditions. More likely any cloud bases will be in the VFR range. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...The best chances for ceiling impacts are at MRY and SNS overnight. With a reforming deep marine layer, there is very little chance for anything lower than 1,500 feet however. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 444 PM PDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Rain showers linger through the morning before diminishing into the afternoon. Winds stay light through early afternoon, increasing to a moderate to fresh northwesterly breeze through Wednesday. Winds build again on Thursday leading to near gale force gusts into the end of the work week. Moderate seas continue through Wednesday before rough seas arrive on Thursday. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...RGass LONG TERM....RGass AVIATION...Flynn MARINE...RGass Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  128 FXUS66 KSGX 132351 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 451 PM PDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers are possible through this evening across much of the region. Elevated winds will occur across the mountains and deserts through this evening as well. Drier weather will then take hold the rest of the week as a subtle warming trend occurs. Elevated winds will return to the region by Thursday into Friday. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... Updated Aviation and Marine discussion... An area of low pressure over the southern half of California will continue to move eastward today. This system will continue the chance for scattered showers across the region. Most areas will see a mix of clouds and sun with these showers, though the chance for lower deserts seeing any measurable rainfall is below 15%. West winds will continue to remain elevated as the trough remains in the vicinity. West winds will gust near 25-40 MPH across most mountain and desert areas, with local gusts near 50 MPH in mountain passes. Satellite imagery shows a drying trend offshore. This trend will push onto land through the afternoon with more peaks of sun from north to south into the evening. The weather system will push further inland over the desert southwest by Tuesday. This will lead to all areas warming about 10 degrees than that of today, with highs near to slightly below normal. Remnant clouds may stick around for areas west of the mountains in the morning with most areas clearing by the afternoon. Slight warming with dry and mostly sunny conditions will occur on Wednesday as an area of low pressure tumbles into the Pacific Northwest. This system will traverse the Great Basin by Thursday, ushering in a broad troughing pattern. The system will stay far enough to the north to not provide any major impacts, but high temperatures will be up to 5 degrees cooler with elevated west winds across the mountains and the deserts. Winds will turn offshore late Thursday night into Friday as the system passes further inland, so we will continue to monitor how strong these winds will be which will be dependent on the exact location that this low pressure system goes. Subtle warming looks to occur by the weekend, though a large trough offshore could make things interesting as we head into the latter part of April. && .AVIATION... 132350Z...Coasts/Valleys...Multiple SCT-BKN cloud layers above 2,500 ft MSL expected through the TAF period. SCT -SHRA are slowly tapering off but could still drop cigs to 2,000 feet at times. -SHRA is expected to clear the area after 07Z. Cigs are not expected to drop below 3,000 ft MSL overnight along the coast but could get as low as 2,000 ft MSL in the valley areas. Any low clouds should SCT by 18Z-19Z. .Mountains/Deserts...West to southwest winds are expected to continue gusting 35-45 kt through passes and on to desert slopes through 10Z. MOD up/downdrafts in lee of mountains. SCT SHRA/SNSH will be possible through 07Z in the mountains. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail. && .MARINE... Isolated westerly wind gusts will exceed 20 kt at times through this evening, generating choppy conditions. No hazardous conditions are expected Tuesday through Friday. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...APR AVIATION/MARINE...Villafane  143 FXUS63 KUNR 132352 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 552 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... -Mild through Thursday -Dry most places outside of NW SD today through Wed -Critical fire weather conditions, mainly along and south of I90 today, and again possibly Wednesday and especially Thursday -Much colder and unsettled for the end of the week with rain and snow possible by Friday for parts of the area && .DISCUSSION...(This Afternoon Through Sunday) Issued at 1055 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Central Rockies upper trough will continue to shift east with another stronger trough dropping into the Pac NW. This will support warm and mainly dry weather through most of Thur. Dry SW flow is ongoing across the southern half of the FA. Rockies trough will semi-split with the northern portion supporting a few showers and isolated TS across the far NW this afternoon/evening. However, the rest of the FA will remain dry. Compact jetlet, associated enhanced bulk shear and marginal CAPE may support an isolated strong storm on the southern flank of expected convection today, with small hail and gusty winds. Cool front starts to progress east into the area tonight. The southern portion of the trough will shift east Tues, barely skirting the southeast third of the FA, with maybe a shower or two in southwest to scentral SD. Enough instability may be present over the BH to also support a few showers there with diurnal heating. Shower chances will linger into Wed across scentral SD, as the trough moves fairly slow across the Central Plains. Mild weather will continue through Thur as WAA ensues ahead of the next upper trough Wed, which will advect SE in westerly flow out of the Pac NW. This system will force a strong cold front into the region Thur, with strong CAA and wind expected. However, this trough will split, with limited precip amounts outside of perhaps northeast WY and maybe far SW SD, effectively leaving much of western SD with little to no precip. After a couple days below normal, things quickly then warm back up next week as the next trough drops into the western CONUS and WAA spreads to its east. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Tuesday Evening) Issued At 552 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Isolated showers and thunderstorms will exit the area toward central SD over the next hour or two. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Gusty NW winds behind a cold front over the western SD plains will end later this evening. More showers and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued At 1055 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Gusty southwest winds, extremely dry air, and lack of appreciable green up will support critical fire weather conditions this afternoon mainly along and south of I90. A red flag warning remains in effect into this evening. The most critical areas will be in SW SD where RH will drop to 10 percent with winds gusting to around 45 mph in the afternoon. A cool front will drop into the area tonight with winds diminishing and RH's recovering. Mild on Tue and Wed as an upper level trough skirts south of the area. However, low RH and breezy winds may support critical fire weather conditions once again on Wed and especially Thur in the same locations. A strong cold front will move into the region Thur, with chances for rain and snow Friday, mainly across northeast WY. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening for SDZ320>322-324>326-329-331>335. WY...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for WYZ315-317. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC AVIATION...13 FIRE WEATHER...JC  186 FXUS62 KTBW 132353 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 753 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Cautionary-level marine winds evening into overnight through mid week. - Patchy late night/early morning fog possible mainly across the Nature Coast. - Moderate to extreme drought conditions continue. && .UPDATE... Issued at 753 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 High pressure remains in control of the weather pattern with warm temperatures set to rise ever further through the rest of the week under generally easterly flow. The forecast looks on track for the next couple of days, with virtually no chances of rain. No changes are planned for the evening update. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 753 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 VFR conditions will hold through the next 24 hours. Easterly flow should give way to an afternoon sea breeze at terminals near the coast on Tuesday. && .MARINE... Issued at 1236 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Strong ridging will keep our our winds of an easterly direction through the week with no showers in the forecast. Strong riding early in the week will resulting in speeds between 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20. By Wednesday afternoon those will start to come down and stay between 5 to 10 knots through the rest of the && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 66 87 65 87 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 65 87 64 88 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 63 86 62 87 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 64 87 62 86 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 57 88 56 89 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 71 87 69 87 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION...Fleming PREVIOUS MARINE...Shiveley  549 FXUS63 KDMX 132354 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 654 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - A few severe storms in northern Iowa late this afternoon and evening with large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a tornado possible. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible in far northern Iowa. - Next round of severe storms and locally heavy rainfall on Tuesday afternoon into night, especially central into southern Iowa. - Additional rounds of severe storms and locally heavy rainfall on Wednesday (eastern Iowa) and again on Friday (much of Iowa). - Warm and breezy today through Friday with highs in the 70s and 80s, then temperatures tumble into the 40s and 50s this weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Today is the start of a busy, active stretch of weather with multiple rounds of severe storms and heavy rainfall potential through weeks end. The first round is setting up for later this afternoon into this evening over northern Iowa. Early afternoon GOES-East Day Cloud Phase Distinction has scattered low level cumulus clouds from Siouxland into northern Iowa with a fair amount of clearing south of these clouds in western Iowa. A warm front is where the clearing/scattered cumulus clouds are located from just north of Sioux City to north of Algona to north of Mason City. Forecast soundings initially show a warm capping layer aloft, which will prevent storm development. However, as the triple point/low pressure moves into northwest Iowa late this afternoon, these same soundings show weakening of the cap. This will allow any inhibition to be overcome and for surface based storms to develop in the vicinity/east of the triple point. Proximity soundings show 3000 J/kg or more of entrainment CAPE, more than ample deep layer shear, and steep lapse rates for severe storms. The hodograph is more linear given lack of backed surface flow so large hail and damaging winds are obvious concerns. Uncontaminated 0-1 km storm relative helicity is marginal at around 100 m2/s2, but with the triple point and warm front over our area, think a few tornadoes will be possible as the flow backs more locally ahead of these features that may enhance the low level flow and helicity. Looking at convective allowing model (CAM) guidance, this has been showing up in past runs of the HRRR along with the ARW cores developing over northwest into north central Iowa close to 0z/7pm this evening. Warn on Forecast (WoFS) is running over the area and the 18z paintballs shows initiation between 22-23z/5-6pm and potential for rotating storms in the vicinity of Spencer that then spreads east-northeastward. As one or more storms develop and move to the east-northeast, these should congeal into a line with the main hazards transitioning more to a large hail and damaging wind threat as the storms exit into northeastern Iowa by midnight. While quite limited, National Water Model forced HRRR has shown some rapid onset flooding potential in far northern Iowa near the Minnesota border, but as the hydro discussion outlines below this will be limited to urban areas. For areas outside of northern Iowa/south of roughly Highway 3, the forecast is expected to be dry. The exception, which is shown in the ARW and NAMNest, is the possibility of convection with a hail and wind threat that turns east- southeastward into the instability gradient. While not a likely scenario, it does exist. Severe risks also exist on Tuesday and Wednesday with each subsequent round better determined after the first has occurred. For Tuesday, the boundary will slip into our forecast area with a weak surface low to the west of the state that moves in later in the day or at night. The front should be a focus for possible storm development mid to late afternoon, but there is a variety of times and locations for convective initiation as the location of moisture gradients, the low position, and wind fields all vary greatly amongst the CAMs. This plays a crucial role in what, if any, storms develop in the afternoon, their location and their hazards. While whatever threat develops and moves into eastern Iowa Tuesday evening, a strong low level jet will begin to move up into our area by late evening. This will bring renewed convection into southern and central Iowa by late evening through much of the overnight, which wanes into the daylight hours of Wednesday. The main hazards would be hail and wind. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 As the western CONUS shortwave trough finally lifts into our region, expect a final round of storms across eastern portions of Iowa on Wednesday. Instability and shear parameter space looks favorable for strong to severe storms with large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes all possible. Further, the surface low and warm front could be over central Iowa and may aid in enhancing low level hodographs, but this is a detail to monitor versus be concerned about at this time horizon. As Wednesday's strong synoptic forcing passes by, Thursday is looking like a more tranquil, dry day into Thursday night. However, the next amplified shortwave trough will be trucking towards the region taking on a neutral tilt. With a surface low and cold front moving through the region/state sometime on Friday with highs reaching the 70s and 80s, another round of strong to severe storms will be possible with this highlighted in the day 5 SPC outlook. As the storms move east of the state Friday night, colder air will wrap in behind the departing low and cannot rule out some snowflakes in northern portions of the state early Saturday. Temperatures will tumble into the 40s and 50s with breezy winds from the northwest on Saturday as well. Further, those with early season vegetation will want to monitor the forecast with sub-freezing temperatures forecast Saturday night/Sunday morning. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 644 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Added in TEMPO group for KMCW for thunderstorms within the next 6 hours. Added a prob30 for KALO as uncertainty remains in the southern extent of storms. Severe hail over an inch in diameter will be possible with storms. Fog will then settle in with increasing confidence in IFR vsbys after 06z. Thunderstorms will then be possible again after 20z, but have maintained prob30s for now until better certainty on location is achieved. Rain and storms will be more widespread at the conclusion of this TAF period. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 239 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Multiple rounds of seasonally moderate to heavy rain this week will lead to renewed flooding concerns. Presently the main concern will be possible renewed or additional river flooding. Output from the GFS- and NBM-forced medium-range National Water Model (NWM) and the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System (HEFS) suggest the most likely scenario will be moderate to significant within-bank rises on many rivers and streams, especially across the southeast half of the CWA over the next week. A few locations may see minor river flooding as well. These rises will be due to the additive effect of multiple rounds of rainfall. If rainfall is higher than presently forecast then the risk of several locations seeing minor flooding and a few locations seeing moderate flooding will increase. Flash flooding is less of a concern than river flooding, however the risk is nonzero. The most likely scenario will be ponding of water or low-end flash flooding especially in urban areas or areas that receive repeated heavy rainfall over a relatively short time period. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Ansorge LONG TERM...Ansorge AVIATION...Jimenez HYDROLOGY...Zogg  645 FXUS63 KFGF 132356 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 656 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Brief heavy snow may impact the Tuesday morning commute in Devils Lake basin and northern Red River Valley. - There is a 30% chance for advisory level winter impacts from accumulating snow and gusty winds Friday to Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 324 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will remain in place over much of the West to Northern Plains this week. This will house numerous shortwave troughs moving through the exit region of the broader upper trough, with this upper trough's axis finally shifting eastward through the central CONUS late this week. This synoptic pattern will provide intervals of precipitation today and Tuesday, as well as Friday to Saturday. This includes potential for snow and associated winter impacts both Tuesday and later this week. More details on this below. With the upper trough passage through our area around Friday to Saturday increasing chances for precipitation, there is a scenario where increasing instability works its way into Minnesota and/or eastern Dakotas to allow for thunderstorms. At this time, it remains unclear if this will occur as there is much uncertainty in numerous preceding shortwave trough passages through the Plains and Midwest that will dictate this buoyant air mass's location. The upper troughing will be oriented in such a way that above average temperatures will overspread our portion of the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest, with highs in the 60s and 70s currently forecast Wednesday and Thursday. With the incoming upper trough passage late this week, a cooler, more seasonable air mass will envelope Northern Plains into Upper Midwest. ...Potential winter impacts Tuesday morning... There is high confidence in an area of precipitation moving generally southwest to northeast across our area north of I-94 corridor. A large subset of high resolution guidance reveals temperatures in northeast ND into far northwest MN will be close enough to freezing to allow some of this precipitation to fall as snow. In fact, relatively strong ascent with rich moisture feeding into the ascent will allow for heavy snow rates between 1-2 inches per hour. Given the relatively fast forward movement of this precipitation, the time for heavy snow rates to reside over any particular location in these areas will be brief (i.e. 1-3 hours at any location). While majority of high resolution guidance depicts this scenario, there are still differences in where exactly this occurs within these region as the areas potentially impacted by snow will likely be quite narrow. Additionally, there is anticipation of relatively warm surface temperatures leading to melting on contact. Although, these higher snow rates will likely overcome warm surfaces to allow for at least some accumulation on non-grassy surfaces. Anywhere from 1-5 inches is liable to fall, with more than 3 inches more likely to be on grassy surfaces. Heavy snow rates will greatly reduce visibility, and may lead to slippery roads from a slushy accumulation. And with this occuring during the morning commute, we've amplified messaging of this potential via graphical messaging as well as issuing a Special Weather Statement. ...Late week winter impact potential... Ensemble guidance continues to cluster toward a scenario that features heavy snow in one or two more consolidated systems' deformation zones. However, most guidance favors majority of this snow to remain in Canada. There is still a subset of guidance that brings snow into our area, mainly north of Highway 200. This includes snow accumulation up to 5 inches. Snow may also coincide with gusty winds to introduce impacts from blowing snow and reduced visibility into this scenario. Additionally, ensembles now reveal a potential scenario that brings a second wave of precipitation and snow through the region on Saturday. This widens the window of when winter impacts may occur from solely Friday to now Friday into Saturday. Ensemble guidance has also trended some what down on potential for warning level impacts from 6 or more inches of snow to be less than 10%. However, the chance for advisory level winter impacts remains at around 30%. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 656 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A few scattered rain showers from KDVL to KBJI could bring some sprinkles in the next few hours, but the main round of precipitation still looks like it will be later tonight and mainly at KGFK and KDVL. Most sites will drop down to MVFR ceilings later this evening, with IFR possible later in the overnight. Some snow is possible in our forecast area around sunrise but for now think that it will stay north of our airports. Some improvement to MVFR by the end of the period. Winds that are northeasterly around 10 kts will shift to a more north to northwesterly direction in the next 24 hours. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CJ AVIATION...JR  946 FXUS62 KTAE 132357 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 757 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 739 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 - Patchy fog is possible on Tuesday morning over the Florida Panhandle and Southeast Alabama, mainly west of the Choctawhatchee River. If encountering fog while driving, slow down, use low beam headlights, and increase braking distance. - Little or no rain is expected through this weekend. Drought conditions will worsen. Fire concerns will remain elevated. Use extreme caution with any outdoor burning. Please heed burn bans where they are in effect. - Above normal temperatures will continue through this weekend, with lower 90s likely late this week. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (This Evening through Sunday) Issued at 246 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Surface high pressure extending from the Atlantic and upper-level high pressure spreading from the Yucatan will keep our weather high and dry for the next several days. Afternoon temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s with low 90s possible by the end of the work week. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s and low 60s through the week. As the weekend approaches, an upper level shortwave from the Midwest will bring a "cold" front closer to the Southeast but will weaken upon approach and fall apart. Another front will develop from a surface low over the Midwest and bring the cold front south to our region by Sunday. Little to no rainfall is expected. Temperatures behind this front will return to the mid-80s. During the morning hours, patchy to areas of fog (possibly dense) is may develop in the FL Panhandle and AL Wiregrass region. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 739 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Mainly VFR conds thru the TAF period with lgt/calm winds, and another aftn seabreeze tmrw. The only concerns are during the early-morning hrs when patchy fog encroaches on ECP/DHN and perhaps VLD. The highest confidence in reduced vsbys are the western terminals where a 9-13Z TEMPO group is in place for 1/2SM. Guidance is not as excited for fog prospects at VLD, but did not want to completely remove the mention from the 18Z package. As a compromise, the lowest vsby was increased to MVFR. && .MARINE... Issued at 246 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A surface high extending from the western Atlantic will keep generally light to gentle southeasterly winds over the waters for the next several days. Seabreezes can be expected to push just inland during the afternoon hours. Later this week, the High will settle a little further south, shifting our winds more southerly. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 246 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Warm and dry conditions will continue through the week. Drought conditions will continue and/or worsen. Transport winds will generally be southerly; swinging from southeasterly to southwesterly at around 5-10 mph. Expect afternoon seabreezes. Dispersions will be moderate, with higher dispersions expected by Wednesday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 246 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 No rain is expected for the next several days. Drought conditions will continue or worsen. For more local drought information & statements, visit the following websites: weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 58 87 57 87 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 59 80 60 81 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 55 86 57 87 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 57 87 58 89 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 58 89 58 90 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 57 88 56 88 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 62 76 62 76 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ Tuesday for FLZ108-112-114-115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Montgomery LONG TERM....Montgomery AVIATION...IG3 MARINE...Montgomery FIRE WEATHER...Montgomery HYDROLOGY...Montgomery  534 FXUS63 KGRR 132358 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 758 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe thunderstorm and flood potential tonight and late Tuesday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 302 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 - Severe thunderstorm and flood potential tonight and late Tuesday This evening, multiple clusters of storms are favored to develop across Wisconsin, northern Illinois, and Lower Michigan, with low- mid level wind fields and low-level warm/moist advection increasing ahead of a shortwave trough. HREF mean MUCAPE will be around 1000-1500 J/kg with effective bulk shear around 40 knots. Model sounding thermodynamic and kinematic profiles are favorable for some hail- producing cells and scattered swaths of damaging winds especially in the first half of the night, including in southwest Michigan after 6 PM if the storms currently in Illinois maintain strength and organization. Tornado potential is relatively low but not zero, as there could be some curvature in the low-level hodographs and 0-3 km shear near 30 knots, but surface stabilization by later in the evening may tend to be the limiting factor. Tuesday evening, another wave of convection is favored with supercells, clusters, and/or lines in a more potent thermodynamic and kinematic environment. Mean HREF MUCAPE is between 1500-2500 J/kg and curved low-level hodographs and longer upper-level tails (respectable low-level and deep-layer shear) are expected. HREF Significant Tornado Parameter mean is about 2-3 during south of M-46 during the evening before the surface begins stabilizing a couple hours after sunset. Diffuse mesoscale warm-frontogenesis at the surface may also be occurring over the area during the evening. Hail and wind are both expected to be primary hazards. For information on the increasing flood threat, see the Hydrology section below. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 757 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 We are looking at a high impact forecast period for the terminals, especially for the first 12 hours or so with lots of convection and low level wind shear, then evolving to mainly lower clouds on Tuesday for a bit. There are isolated cells out there to start the period. The main one looks to impact the KLAN terminal between 0030 and 02z, so have accounted for that. Otherwise, we will see a few showers over Lake Michigan as of 00z move ENE. These are not expected to do much as they move through over the first 3-4 hours. Our main concern is the convection over Wisconsin that will make a run at the area toward/after midnight. Low level wind shear of 45-55 knots will develop ahead of the line. The convection will affect KMKG the longest with training of cells expected. They will eventually push SE and affect the other terminals over time, but not as long in duration. IFR is expected. The storms should move out of all areas by 12z or so. Then some MVFR clouds will gradually lift to VFR into the afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 302 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Areas of dense fog in the nearshore will likely persist into tonight and may or may not dissipate after thunderstorms pass through tonight. After a slight lull this evening, hazardous winds and waves for small craft are expected through Tuesday. Thunderstorms, possibly severe thunderstorms with hail and wind, are possible over Lake Michigan this evening/tonight and Tuesday evening/night. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 302 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 The further north you go in the Lower Peninsula, the more significant the flooding situation becomes. Around an inch of rain fell across much of the area along and north of the Muskegon River watershed over the weekend, with a much heavier swath of 2-4 inches across the Manistee River watershed and the headwaters portions of the Muskegon basin. Coming on the heels of one of the wettest springs on record so far, and in the midst of a significantly active (and wet) ongoing weather pattern, the water that's already on the ground is going to produce renewed flooding on the Muskegon River (and many others rivers further north as well). With another 2-3" of rain over the next few days in the Muskegon, we're now expecting the most significant flood on the Muskegon River since the flood of 2018. If the next few days of rains overperform (which is entirely possible), the forecasted crests will go even higher. If you live near the Muskegon river, now is the time to prepare for significant flooding. Meanwhile, further south, conditions in the Grand River basin are in slightly better shape, although water is still high from all of the recent rains. We've finally dropped below stage at all locations in the basin, but that trend will soon reverse as water levels start to climb again throughout the week. With an additional 2-3" of rain expected in this area as well, it's beginning to look like the region will generally repeat the flood levels experienced last week. In addition to the river flooding, some of the thunderstorms we're expecting over the next few days could be very slow moving over the same areas repeatedly. If this happens, some localized rain totals of 4+ inches are possible in the next few days. If this happens over one of the urban areas, significant fast- developing urban flooding is possible. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for MIZ037>040-043>046- 050>052. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for LMZ844>849. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ844>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...CAS AVIATION...NJJ MARINE...CAS HYDROLOGY...AMD  163 FXUS63 KIND 132358 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN Issued by National Weather Service Springfield MO 758 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Active pattern this week with near daily chances for showers and storms. - Severe weather is a possibility through Tuesday focused mainly across the northwest half of central Indiana. Additional threats for strong to severe storms Wednesday and Saturday. - Warm temperatures expected through Saturday with multiple days in the lower to mid 80s. Record temperatures are possible. && .DISCUSSION (Today through Sunday)... Issued at 258 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Rest of This Afternoon into This Evening... An upper wave, moving in the southwest flow aloft, is generating showers and thunderstorms across Illinois this afternoon. Most if not all of these will remain west of central Indiana. However, still cant rule out a few showers or storms popping up in the unstable atmosphere. Storms across the far northern forecast area could be strong to severe. Overnight tonight through Tuesday night... Thunderstorms generated near the surface front to the north of the area will move southeast overnight into Tuesday morning. Some of these may survive into central Indiana, especially the northeast half of the area. Additional scattered convection may develop Tuesday afternoon, especially north closer to the front. Tuesday night, similar to tonight, convection that develops well north of the could move southeast into the area. Some of the convection from Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night could be severe, mainly across the northern half of the forecast area. Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary threats. Lows tonight in the middle to upper 60s will be near record high minimum temperatures. Highs on Tuesday will depend on any rain as well as sky cover. Drier conditions and lower sky cover could lead to near record highs in the middle 80s, but more rain/sky cover could limit highs to near 80. Wednesday through Saturday... The front will be closer to but still north of the area on Wednesday. With southwest flow continuing aloft, any upper impulse moving through the flow will have the potential to generate scattered convection in an unstable atmosphere. Convection generated by the front to the north could also impact the northern forecast area. Isolated strong to severe convection is possible given expected parameters. Temperatures on Wednesday will depend on sky cover and rain coverage, but for now will go with upper 70s north to middle 80s south. Wednesday night into Thursday, an upper trough will move into the area, providing better forcing. The surface front could move into the area, but there is a decent amount of uncertainty on this. (The NAMs solution of moving the front completely through looks overdone). Will have likely or higher category PoPs all areas at some point Wednesday night into Thursday. Brief upper ridging looks to move in on Friday, providing a dry and warm day. A larger upper trough will move in on Saturday and bring a strong cold front through the area. This will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms. Strong storms are possible, depending on the timing of the front. Sunday and Monday... High pressure will build in and provide quiet weather. Highs will be below normal, with the coldest readings Saturday in the 50s. Lows in the middle to upper 30s will occur Saturday night, so will have to watch for the potential for frost if temperatures trend cooler. && .AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 755 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Impacts: - Low-VFR ceilings this evening. - MVFR CIGs are possible at times after 05Z, at mainly KIND/KLAF - SSW winds gusting to 20-25KT through most of the TAF period - Scattered convection may impact KLAF this evening... chances of convection at all terminals after 12Z Tuesday at mainly KIND/KLAF. Discussion: Scattered convection has developed across central Illinois this evening and will track to the northeast the rest of this evening. This activity could clip the far northern portions of the area including the KLAF site, but the better chances look to remain just north of the area. There could be some occasional MVFR ceilings overnight across portions of central Indiana. Additional storms have developed across Minnesota into Wisconsin this evening. This activity will develop into a cluster and move southeast tonight into Tuesday morning. It will be weakening as it moves into the area but some convection from this activity will be possible at KIND/KLAF after 12Z Tuesday morning. South to southwest winds will continue through the TAF period and will be gusty at times. The gusts will increase some in the afternoon hours Tuesday generally 10 to 15kt with gusts of 20 to 25kt. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Within the setup described in the discussion above, near record temperatures are possible at times this week, mainly Tuesday, and Friday. Whether readings get close depends on sky cover and any rain staying away, which keeps confidence lower at this time. Current deterministic model runs are cooler than the records, but the potential exists to get within a few degrees if everything lines up. On Tuesday April 14, Indy's record high is 85, set in 1883. On Friday April 17, Indy's record high is 87, set in 1896. Record high minimum temperatures are also in play at times given the warm and relatively humid air mass. The first opportunity for this comes Monday, when the record high minimum at Indy is 63, set in 2014 and tied in 2018. At the moment, the forecast is for tying that number. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...50 AVIATION...SGF CLIMATE...Ryan  797 FXUS61 KBGM 132359 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 759 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes from the previous forecast. A colder pattern is possible late this weekend. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Threat for strong to severe thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday, with isolated hail and strong wind gusts possible along with heavy rain. 2) The warm pattern through the week will break down this weekend and be replaced by much colder air late in the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Main area of concern is centered around the threat for strong to possibly severe thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday. A large scale synoptic pattern is setting up today and will persist into at least the middle of the week. This pattern is largely defined by a building ridge over the southeast US. The air mass within this dome of high pressure will be increasingly warm and humid, and set the stage for a couple days (at least) of thunderstorms. A large plume of deep moisture from the southern MS Valley will advect northward through the Great Lakes and into the Northeast beginning tonight. A series of weak upper level short waves and co-located surface lows will ride east across the region. The first weak one today has produced only light rain across the region, but the second one on Tuesday will be slightly more potent and combine with warmer temperatures and higher humidity. There will likely be a number of conditional elements needed to generate severe storms on Tuesday. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty with respect to the timing of the convection with a number of members indicating a late morning/early afternoon round followed by a later afternoon round of storms. If this solution does develop, the threat of severe storms will highly depend on how quickly the morning convection can exit and allow the boundary layer to destabilize again. There are also some solutions that bring the bulk of the convection well to our north and leave central NY and ne PA with minimal storms. The third solution, holds all of the convection off until later in the day and produces the most intense storms between 5-9 PM. The environment and amount of instability will clearly depend on how much clearing we can realize through the afternoon. There is a consensus among the guidance of anywhere from 500-1500 J/kg of ML CAPE and around 30-40 kt of 0-6km shear. Mid level lapse rates appear favorable, around 6.5 to 7 degC/km...and supportive of deep convection and the threat of some hail. The presence of deep moisture may also preclude the threat of microbursts and localized damaging winds. The one limiting factor with these storms will be the lack of strong dynamical forcing. The upper short wave is very weak and the lack of amplification could limit the amount of forcing for ascent. Some of the convection could be leftover from western Great Lakes convection, and we will need to monitor the threat for any leftover MCS or MCV formation. Storms should diminish in intensity and coverage after sunset and leave just lingering clouds or light rain around into the overnight. The next wave begins to move in earlier on Wednesday with the primary sfc front/trough laying east-west across the region through the day. This will allow for showers and storms to develop along this boundary most of the day on and off. The presence of this nearly stationary boundary combined with an axis of deep moisture (PWs around 1 to 1.5") could lead to a threat of heavy rain and training convection which may lead to some localized flooding issue. The threat for severe storms on Wed looks on the low side given the lower amount of instability, but with the presence of the boundary, the low level shear could be heightened, so this will need to be watched. KEY MESSAGE 2... The large scale pattern is the main concern later in the week, similar to the message above. An upper trough will dig into the central US by Thursday, which will cause the ridge to the east to amplify and push warmer, more humid air into central NY and ne PA Thursday. High temperatures on Wed and Thu will top out in the 70s and 80s...with dew points in the 60s. More scattered showers and storms are expected Thursday ahead of the approaching upper trough that will usher in slightly cooler and drier air by Friday as temperatures drop into the 60s and 70s before climbing back into the mid to upper 70s on Saturday. The pattern will really shift to a colder one starting late in the weekend. An anomalously cold trough is expected to dig into the northern Plains late Sat and rotate to the east across the Northeast US late Sunday into early next week. This system will usher in very colder temperatures, with highs in the 40s and lows in the 30s. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions and isolated rain showers will persist for a few more hours across the area. Restrictions are not expected but a brief, heavy shower hitting a terminal head on may drop visby down to MVFR for a very brief period. The showers are too small and isolated to have any confidence including them in the TAFs for this evening. Winds will become light and variable to calm as the evening progresses. This will allow for some patchy fog to develop across the area. Guidance is showing RME and SYR having a good chance at IFR and below restrictions tonight, and with the rain showers occurring in the area plus the expected westerly winds tonight that will push lake moisture into the area, confidence in these restrictions occurring is high. There are signals for fog developing at all our other terminals, but confidence is not high. BGM may be able to see some IFR restrictions tonight after it rained at the terminal this evening and winds are expected to become southerly, which is upslope flow that could help produce IFR at the terminal for a few hours. Too many other variables are uncertain at this time to put IFR at ELM/ITH/AVP. There is a chance for thunderstorms to develop in the afternoon, but how a MCS evolves over the upper midwest tonight and travels east into our area tomorrow morning will impact the thunder chances. A few hours of PROB30 covers the thunder chances across CNY in the afternoon for now with too much uncertainty at this time for anything more definitive. Outlook: Tuesday evening through Thursday...Restrictions possible from showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Friday...Mainly VFR; low chance for lingering showers and restrictions. Saturday...Additional restrictions look to arrive along with showers and storms late in the day Saturday. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JTC AVIATION...BJT