000 FXUS62 KRAH 140000 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 800 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 800 PM Monday... * Increased Fire Danger Statement reissued for the western Piedmont and Sandhills for Tue. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 300 PM Monday... 1) Dry fuels combined with lower humidity and near record heat will promote fire weather concerns through the end of the week. 2) Near record high temperatures are expected Tuesday through Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... As of 300 PM Monday... KEY MESSAGE 1... Dry fuels combined with lower humidity and near record heat will promote fire weather concerns through the end of the week. The anomalous mid-level ridge will amplify along the eastern seaboard through the end of the week. Associated subsidence over the southeast will promote continued dry conditions at least through Saturday. Precipitation as a percentage of normal over the past 30 days is as low as 5 to 25% for portions of our area worsening the elevated drought conditions. While the combination of RH and wind will not reach typical IFD criteria today or through this week, given the anomalously dry fuels and near-record heat, the NC Forest Service has requested additional messaging along with their current state-wide burn ban. As such, an IFD has been issued for the western Piedmont/Sandhills for the rest of today where gusts will be strongest. An additional IFD for the same footprint will be likely issued this evening for Tuesday. A possible expansion eastward to the coast may be needed from Wednesday through the end of the week, but further details to come. KEY MESSAGE 2... Near record high temperatures are expected Tuesday through Saturday. Subtropical ridging will persist over the Southeast US for much of the period from Tuesday through Saturday. At the surface, a Bermuda High will bring warm southwesterly flow to central NC during this time. 1000-850 mb thicknesses are modeled to be around the 95th percentile for this time of year, and forecast maximum and minimum temperatures get close to or reach record highs each day. Tuesday's forecast highs are in the upper-80s with mostly lower-90s each day after that, which is around 20 degrees above normal. Some mid-90s will even be possible on Saturday, which looks to be the hottest day. For reference, this would get close to the hottest temperatures ever recorded any day in the month of April. See the climate section below for more details. Forecast lows are also quite mild, in the lower-to-mid-60s, which is 10-20 degrees above normal. Fortunately, humidity looks tolerable, with dew points bottoming out in the lower- to-mid-50s each day, perhaps even some upper-40s especially in the west. So heat indices will be about 2-4 degrees cooler than the actual air temperatures each day. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 755 PM Monday... Sub-tropical high pressure extending across the South Atlantic states will favor a high probability of VFR conditions and sswly surface winds that will strengthen and become at least occasionally gusty with daytime heating again on Tue. Outlook: Sub-tropical high pressure will favor warm, dry, and VFR conditions in cntl NC through Sat. && .CLIMATE... All-Time Records for April KGSO: 95 on 4/28/1915 KRDU: 95 on 4/23/1980 and 4/28/1896 KFAY: 96 on 4/12/1930 Record High Temperatures: April 14: KGSO: 90/1922 KRDU: 91/1941 KFAY: 93/1922 April 15: KGSO: 90/2006 KRDU: 92/1941 KFAY: 95/2006 April 16: KGSO: 88/2002 KRDU: 92/1941 KFAY: 94/2006 April 17: KGSO: 90/1967 KRDU: 93/1896 KFAY: 92/1941 April 18: KGSO: 90/1976 KRDU: 95/1896 KFAY: 93/1941 Record High Minimum Temperatures: April 15: KGSO: 65/2006 KRDU: 64/1993 April 16: KGSO: 66/2006 KRDU: 64/1912 KFAY: 69/1934 April 17: KGSO: 63/2002 KRDU: 67/1896 KFAY: 66/1921 April 18: KGSO: 66/1909 KRDU: 63/1941 KFAY: 67/2002 April 19: KRDU: 67/1896 KFAY: 67/2002 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Luchetti/Danco AVIATION...MWS CLIMATE...  131 FXUS61 KBOX 140000 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 800 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Summerlike warmth Tue and Wed away from the coast with scattered thunderstorms and a low risk of severe weather. - Backdoor front may bring cooler temperatures Thu-Sat, especially in eastern MA, but uncertainty is high in exactly where it ends up. - More seasonable temperatures early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Summerlike warmth Tue and Wed away from the coast with scattered thunderstorms and a low risk of severe weather. Confidence remains high in summerlike warmth Tue and Wed away from both coasts as a strong upper level ridge builds over region from Gulf. Highs both days should easily reach lower 80s inland while onshore flow keeps immediate coastal areas in 50s to around 60. We also need to watch a backdoor front lurking close to northeast MA which could bring cooler temperatures there as well, perhaps into the 40s or lower 50s, but right now it seems like that front should stay to the north until sometime Wed night or Thu. One thing we are monitoring is the potential for severe storms during afternoon and evening both Tue and Wed, mainly from 2 PM to 10 PM. Trough axis near eastern Great Lakes should provide sufficient lift to generate scattered showers and thunderstorms to our west both days, and some of this activity could survive the trip into interior southern New England given warm airmass in place and more importantly strong westerly flow aloft. Tue actually looks to be the more interesting day with greatest potential for severe storms roughly along and west of I-91. Guidance shows decent instability (1000-1500 J/kg) Tue afternoon along with rather impressive mid level lapse rates (6-7 C/km) that we don't see too often here and sufficient 0-6km shear of 35-40kt. This may be enough to bring storms into southern New England during the afternoon and evening with localized wind damage and hail being the main threats. Note both 3km NAM and RRFS are fairly aggressive in depicting a small line of storms moving SE across interior Tue afternoon, though HREF updraft helicities are focused more in western New England and lightning probabilities are in that area as well. However, CSU machine learning guidance does highlight much of interior southern New England with a low severe potential. Environment still looks favorable for thunderstorms on Wed though several of the high-res models don't show much in way of activity. CSU and SPC HREF expand the low severe risk into more of southern New England, with guidance showing decent instability across more of southern New England (focused north and west of I-95 in CT, RI, and MA) with continued strong 0-6km shear (40-50kt) and better low level moisture (dewpoints into lower 60s). Mid level lapse rates are more marginal however (5-6 C/km) but that could be overcome with sufficient instability. While overall severe threat remains low (and higher to west of New England) we can't rule out a few storms capable of producing localized wind damage or hail. KEY MESSAGE 2...Backdoor front may bring cooler temperatures Thu- Sat, especially in eastern MA, but uncertainty is high in exactly where is ends up. Forecast becomes more uncertain later this week as we deal with another backdoor front potentially dropping south across New England. Details will need to be worked out regarding how far south and exactly how quickly the front will be able to push southward. Typically these fronts end up somewhere from central MA into RI, with summerlike temperatures continuing to its south (Hartford) and much cooler temperatures to the north and east. For now we are basing forecast on a model blend which helps iron out some of the uncertainty, but getting more into time window for higher resolution models will help refine forecast in coming days. Certainly potential for big temperature busts this far out in time. KEY MESSAGE 3...More seasonable temperatures early next week. A stronger cold front is expected to cross region sometime Sun, accompanied by some showers. Much cooler airmass follows behind front early next week with temperatures returning to more typical levels for mid April, generally in 50s to around 60. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 00z TAF Update: Tonight...High Confidence. VFR conditions for most. IFR possible for Cape/Island terminals before clearing to VFR by 04Z. Periods of fog possible for Cape/Islands 08-12Z. SW winds with gusts diminishing. Gusts 25-30kts possible through 03Z for Cape/Islands along with LLWS due to 020 winds 230/50-60kt. Tuesday...High confidence overall. Moderate for storm chances. VFR with S/SW winds and coastal sea breezes 8-12 kts. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and evening (20-00Z), especially across interior southern New England. Included in TAF as light to moderate showers for east/central terminals for now due to lower confidence in thunderstorm chances/location. PROB30 included for -TSRA for BDL because it is further west (greater risk for tstorms). Brief MVFR possible in any moderate showers or thunderstorms. Winds should most likely lean more SW at 10-15 kts, gusts to 22 kts in the shower/storm timeframe. Locally higher/erratic gusts in any thunderstorms. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/... Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. High confidence through the end of the week. Fairly strong low level jet will bring frequent 30kt gusts to the waters through the evening with some 35kt gusts likely around Cape Cod and Islands. Maintaining current headlines of SCA and Gale Warnings as a result. Winds and seas gradually diminish tonight and especially Tue and Wed when local sea breezes are expected near shore. The other concern is for areas of fog developing this afternoon and persisting early tonight on south coastal waters due to mild SW winds over colder ocean waters. Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/... Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. Thursday through Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. && .CLIMATE... Upcoming record highs: Tue 4/14 Boston 83 in 2023 Hartford 96 in 2023 Providence 87 in 2023 Worcester 90 in 2023 Wed 4/15 Boston 82 in 1896 Hartford 88 in 1941 Providence 82 in 1938 Worcester 85 in 1941 && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ230- 236. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ235-237. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ250-251. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ254>256. && $$ DISCUSSION...JWD AVIATION...Mensch/JWD MARINE...JWD CLIMATE...JWD  679 FXUS63 KLBF 140001 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 701 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - High confidence in critical fire conditions through early this evening. - Moderate confidence in precipitation potential Tuesday night into Wednesday - Low to moderate confidence in a return to near-critical fire conditions on Thursday as dry, warm, and breezy conditions return. - Moderate confidence in precipitation Friday and Friday night, with a low confidence of some light accumulating snow. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 136 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Dry and warm conditions will prevail through the remainder of today as upper level ridging begins to slide off to the east. Increasing precipitation chances returns on Tuesday as a developing low pressure system over the Rockies begins to push eastward. At this time, the main low will remain just to the south along the Nebraska/Kansas border. This should keep the majority of the precipitation, not to mention severe potential, to the south and east. Regardless, some of the hi-res models show some more organized convection developing across portions of southwest Nebraska by late evening. Current thinking is that these storms are not expected to be severe as the better instability and forcing remains to the southeast, but some of the storms could produce some stronger wind gusts up to 50 mph or small hail. Overall, any precipitation we receive on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning will be more stratiform in nature and sub-severe. QPF amounts with these showers will generally be under a quarter inch (0.25 inches), with up to a half inch (0.50 inches) possible in the heavier, more organized storms. The best potential to see any showers/storms will be between mid-afternoon (3pm CT) and late evening (10-11pm CT). Some lingering showers and embedded thunderstorms could continue into the early Wednesday morning hours, but overall coverage and intensity should diminish through the Wednesday morning hours. For temperatures, increasing clouds and precipitation will drop temperatures into the upper 60s to low 70s for both Tuesday and Wednesday. Even though temperatures will fall about 10 degrees from today's highs in the low 80s, these highs will still be nearly 10 degrees above normal. Overnight lows will also remain at least 5 to 10 degrees above normal from tonight through Wednesday night in the upper 30s to low 40s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 136 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A return to dry conditions arrives on Thursday as weak ridging builds back into the central Plains. Warm air advection with 850 mb temperatures in the 12 to 16 C range will allow for surface highs to easily climb back into the low to mid 80s. These highs will be nearly 20 degrees above normal for this time of the year. Latest probability guidance suggests a maximum temperature over 80 degrees to be near 100 percent for locations generally east of US-83. Increasing the probability to over 85 degrees, much of that same area still has a nearly 60 to 70 percent or higher probability. Therefore, confidence is high that these very warm, unseasonable temperatures will occur on Thursday. Would even expect the going forecasted highs to rise another couple degrees over the next few days potentially into the mid to upper 80s for much of the region. The warm and dry conditions will be brief as the next system arrives Friday lasting into Saturday. An upper level low will deepen over Wyoming on Friday and pivot across the northern high Plains into Saturday. This low and associated front will bring some precipitation to the region beginning as early as Friday morning across northwest Nebraska and into the Pine Ridge. Precipitation will gradually push south and east throughout the day. There is still some uncertainty in precip type and where the rain/snow cut off line will be. For the most part, will expect mostly all rain during the day, with the Pine Ridge region possibly seeing snow as temperatures remain cooler in that area. Still, maximum temperatures are expected to rise into the low 40s in the Pine Ridge which may inhibit any snow. Once the sun sets in the evening, any lingering precipitation will transition over to snow. How much snow falls will be highly dependent on the precipitation track and if any precipitation will remain over our area by the time temperatures drop enough for snow to develop. Looking at the latest probabilities, the highest potential (over 50 percent) to see accumulating snow will be across the Pine Ridge and in areas mainly north and west of a Chappell to Valentine line. Accumulations are still uncertain, but will continue to monitor this over the next few days. Beyond Friday night, upper level ridging builds back across the western US with surface high pressure returning to the central Plains allowing for a dry weekend to prevail. Cold air advection will push 850 mb temperatures in the 0 to -6 C range into Nebraska keeping highs only in the 50s on Saturday. Temperatures gradually warm into the mid 60s to low 70s on Sunday and eventually back into the upper 70s to low 80s on Monday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 650 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 VFR conditions will prevail across all of western and north central Nebraska through tonight into Tuesday. A gradual increase in mid-level clouds, 10-12K feet AGL, will occur later tonight through the day Tuesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 136 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Critical fire weather concerns are expected through this evening as RH values drop and winds remain strong. Humidity will continue to drop over the next few hours before bottoming out near 10 percent by late afternoon. The lowest RH values will generally be across southwest Nebraska into the eastern Panhandle and western Sandhills. Westerly winds are currently gusting near 30 mph already and are anticipated to increase as high as 35 to 40 mph by late afternoon before beginning to diminish after sunset. A Red Flag Warning will remain in effect through mid-evening due to these strong winds, lower RH values, and cured fuels ready to burn. Increased moisture due to precipitation chances on Tuesday eventing and into Wednesday will keep fire concerns low through mid-week. However, a return to dry, warm, and windy conditions will bring a return to near-critical fire concerns on Thursday. Stay tuned to the latest forecasts for additional fire concerns heading into late this week. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for NEZ204-206-208-209. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kulik LONG TERM...Kulik AVIATION...Taylor FIRE WEATHER...Kulik  401 FXUS63 KBIS 140003 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 703 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Medium to high chances for showers through tonight. - A few thunderstorms are possible this evening into tonight, with an isolated strong to marginally severe storm possible along the South Dakota border. - Mainly dry and warmer Tuesday and Wednesday. - Wide range in temperatures from northwest to southeast Thursday as a cold front pushes into the state. - Significant cool down for the end of the week, with medium chances for rain and snow. && .UPDATE... Issued at 702 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 The risk for a severe thunderstorm in southwest North Dakota has greatly diminished as the stronger updrafts in northwest South Dakota have taken on a direct eastward trajectory. Most of south central North Dakota should also be in the clear from severe storms, but will still need to monitor the South Dakota convection as it could reach a kinematic environment that could spawn an elevated left-moving supercell later this evening. But that would be a reasonable worst-case scenario, low probability outcome. Isolated non-severe thunderstorms will remain possible across southwest and south central North Dakota through the evening. The fog forecast for this evening into Tuesday morning could prove to be challenging. Dense fog had been plaguing parts of southwest North Dakota for several hours this afternoon, but is now finally starting to lift with the arrival of more persistent rainfall. HRRR/RAP guidance would indicate that fog could develop outside of rain showers across much of western and central North Dakota later tonight. Will leave a patchy fog mention over much of the area and refine later as needed. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 158 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Chances for showers and thunderstorms through tonight, with a low potential for a few strong to marginally severe storms far south late this afternoon and this evening. Drying out Tuesday, warm Wednesday, then a significant cooldown late in the workweek and into the weekend. Latest satellite imagery and upper level analysis shows upper level circulation along the MT/ID border with additional shortwave energy lifting from WY into southeast MT. Showers and scattered thunderstorms have been on the increase over Northeast WY into southeast MT over the past hour or so. This has resulted in steep low and mid-level lapse rates over this area. Through the remainder of the afternoon as the shortwave propagates east northeast, expect this environment to work into the western Dakotas. SPC has issued a MCD for portions of northwest SD into southeast MT and northeast WY. The problem is, the farther north and east you go, the more stable the environment. We expect convection, some strong, will approach southwest ND this afternoon. The main question is how far can it progress into the forecast area, characterized by a more stable lower level environment, before dissipating. The main threats with the high based convection will be strong wind gusts to 60 mph. Better chances will remain south of the border, but an isolated strong to marginally severe storm can not be ruled out late this afternoon through the evening along the South Dakota border in the southwest and south central. As we then go through the evening and overnight as the mid-upper level circulation tracks from far southwest ND through east central ND. This will support scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms tracking through the forecast area tonight. Late tonight, as the precipitation lifts into northeast ND, there it the potential for a bit of mixed precip around the Turtle Mountains. At this time the warm temperatures should inhibit any significant snow accumulation, but a little accumulation on grassy surfaces can not be ruled out. For the most part warming Tuesday and Wednesday with mostly dry conditions. Our given NBM guidance gave us several hours of splotchy slight chance pops on Tuesday over western ND. There does appear to be a small potential for an afternoon shower or possible thunderstorm. we opted to include a broad brush slight chance pops over the west Tuesday afternoon. It's possible that as we go into the evening, we could see slight chances propagate into central ND. For now we will limit the slight chance pops to mainly along and west of the Highway 83 corridor, Tuesday afternoon. Wednesday looks to be warm and mild. We could see afternoon humidities drop into the 20-25 percent range over southwest ND but winds look to be rather light out of the southwest Wednesday afternoon. In the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe an upper level low in the eastern Pacific drops south and moves onto the Pacific Northwest coast by Thursday. This will result in surface cyclogenesis in the lee of the northern and central Rockies and by Thursday the surface low ejects onto the Plains. At this time it looks like the energy in this upper trough splits with a piece tracking north of the forecast and another tracking well south of the area. Current temperature guidance on Thursday suggest a 30 degree or so difference in temperatures between the far north (mid to upper 40s) and the southern James River Valley (Mid to upper 70s). Should we reach the mid 70s across the south central on Thursday, we could see a period low humidities, possibly into the low to mid 20s in the far south central east into the southern JRV. Winds should not be an too strong during this timeframe. As the upper level trough swings through the northern Plains we will see a period of precipitation, most likely rain initially, then changing to snow. With the split flow pattern there remains quite a bit of uncertainty as to how much qpf we see. Right now, the NBM 24 hour probability of a quarter inch of liquid from Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon remains low across all of western and central ND. Whether that falls as rain, snow or a mix, impacts from qpf amounts look to be low. There will be a period of strong wind with this system, followed by much colder temperatures late in the workweek and into at least the first half of the weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 702 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Areas of showers will continue across southern and central North Dakota through this evening, ending from southwest to northeast overnight into Tuesday morning. Mostly expecting MVFR visibility associated with the showers, but some IFR is possible. There is also a risk of a few thunderstorms across southwest and south central North Dakota this evening. Fog continues to impact parts of southwest North Dakota this evening, but think visibility should improve above LIFR levels with the arrival of more persistent rain. Other parts of the state could see patchy fog develop outside of the showers later tonight into Tuesday morning. Various low ceilings begin the 00Z TAF period, generally at IFR or LIFR in the southwest and MVFR from northwest to south central North Dakota, with VFR north central. Expect IFR to LIFR ceilings to spread over most of western and central North Dakota later this evening through tonight, improving from west to east mid Tuesday morning through the early afternoon. Winds are expected to remain around 10 kts or less through the forecast period, primarily at an easterly direction this evening and becoming westerly on Tuesday. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Hollan DISCUSSION...TWH AVIATION...Hollan  642 FXUS63 KLOT 140004 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 704 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Late spring to summer-like temperatures will continue through Friday with highs in the 70s and 80s and lows in the 60s. - Several additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms, including a threat for severe weather and flooding expected, especially late Tuesday afternoon/evening and again on Wednesday. - A brief break in the pattern is expected late Thursday into or through the day on Friday before another storm system arrives in the Friday evening to Saturday timeframe. - In the wake of the Saturday cold front, a brief, potentially sharp, shot of much cooler air could bring frost/freeze concerns into next Sunday and Monday. && .MESOSCALE... Issued at 218 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Moisture advection along the northeastern terminus of an 850 low- level jet favored the early afternoon development of scattered showers and storms across western IL. The expectation is for this cluster of storms to continue sliding east- northeastward across northern IL and into northwestern IN through the afternoon. While the overall severe threat with the storms this afternoon remains in question, the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and ample deep layer shear noted by long straight hodographs suggest conditions will be favorable for supercells capable of producing large hail through early this evening. As of this writing, it appears the best environment supportive of more substantial surface based storms resides south of I-80. This is the area where more persistent insolation through the day has pushed temperatures into the low 80s. Accordingly, in collaboration with the SPC we have issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for this area. More substantial thunderstorms are slated to develop this evening north-northwest of our area across portions of the Upper Midwest in the vicinity of a surface warm front. With time, conglomerate outflow from these storms will support upscale growth into a east-southeastward shifting MCS late this evening and overnight. We will be watching trends with this activity closely through the evening, as it remains plausible that northern parts of our area could get a glancing blow by these storms overnight. Locally strong wind gusts, hail and heavy rainfall would be the main threat with these storms overnight. KJB && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Tuesday and Wednesday... Tuesday and Wednesday, aggregate mid/upper level troughing across the southwestern U.S. will slide eastward over the Four Corners Region of the Desert Southwest. As this occurs, the enhanced corridor of broad upper-level southwesterly flow from the Plains to the Upper Midwest will be shunted farther eastward into the Great Lakes. This will essentially steer a parade of shortwave impulses northeastward across our area through midweek. Altogether, this in addition to the favorable overlap of the plume of steep mid-level lapse rates, stalled frontal zone, a steady feed of low-level moisture advection and strong deep-layer shear will support a threat for additional waves of severe thunderstorms in the general region. Of particular concern for more severe storms is the late Tuesday afternoon and evening time period. Following any early morning remnant storms, we should see primarily storm free weather for much of the day as the area becomes capped under the EML inversion. Accordingly, this should favor several hours of diurnal heating and destabilization of the moist (dew points in the 60s) low-level airmass through the day. Scattered thunderstorm development then looks favorable in the vicinity of the frontal boundary across eastern IA and southern WI sometime during the mid to late afternoon hours of Tuesday. Given the favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment, supercells capable of very large hail (2"+) will be a favorable, at least with the initial activity. A notable tornado threat may also develop for a few hours late in the afternoon through early evening across eastern IA into northwestern IL. This as strengthening low- level flow leads to enlarged low-level hodographs into early evening. The storm mode does look to ultimately build upscale into forward propagating segments through the evening, so a transition to damaging wind producing storms is likely as the storms progress east into northern IN later in the evening. Hydrology will also become an increased concern Tuesday night, particularly if repeated rounds of storms move over the same area. If this occurs, a notable threat of flash flooding will materialize into Tuesday night. Prior rounds of convection into Wednesday morning may then muddle the picture convectively speaking for Wednesday PM. Ultimately, pinpointing favored locations and time windows will remain challenging until there is better clarity on exact shortwaves and eventual placements of boundaries. KJB Thursday through Sunday: There's variance regarding the progression of a cold front across the region, with some of the slower solutions holding onto some potential for storms into Thursday afternoon. Thereafter, into Thursday night and at least the start of Friday, ensemble model guidance advertises a brief break in the stormy pattern as shortwave ridging moves through the Great Lakes ahead of a substantial trough digging into the central US. High temperatures look to rebound into the low to even mid 80s by Friday accompanied by another threat for strong to severe thunderstorms Friday night into Saturday. Thereafter, there is a reasonably strong signal in ensemble guidance for a cooldown to start next week. The key aspect for the weekend into early next week cooldown is a recent trend towards a much cooler air mass due to trough amplification over the region. If this comes to pass, parts of the area may flirt with sub-freezing temperatures Saturday night into early Sunday, and again Sunday night into next Monday morning. With the summer-like warmth and rain this week supercharging plant growth and leaf out, the magnitude of the weekend cold shot will be one to watch for agricultural interests. Castro/Borchardt && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 704 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Key messages for the 00Z TAF period: * Isolated showers and thunderstorms this evening * Rain and storm potential overnight into early Tuesday * MVFR cigs expected late tonight through Tuesday morning * Additional thunder potential Tuesday evening Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue meandering about Chicagoland this evening, especially the earlier half. Confidence is growing in a more widespread system of showers and embedded thunderstorms overnight into early Tuesday. Time window appears to be approx. 08 to 11Z at RFD and 09 to 12Z in Chicagoland. MVFR vsbys will be possible beneath these showers. Most of Tuesday will be dry, although can't rule out an isolated afternoon storm or two. Scattered thunder chances increase again for Tuesday evening. MVFR cigs are anticipated to settle in with the rain overnight and stick around into Tuesday. Return to VFR is favored toward the end of the morning in Chicago and into the afternoon at RFD. SSW winds will continue gusting somewhat frequently to around 20 kt, increasing to closer to 25 kt overnight. Wind direction may get squirrelly for a few hours as showers and storms move through late tonight into early Tuesday. Expect SW winds gusting to 20 to 25 kt during the day on Tuesday. Doom && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago  886 FXUS64 KEPZ 140005 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 605 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 553 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 - Breezy to windy conditions again Tuesday, with at least some patchy blowing dust. Lighter winds for Wednesday. - Breezy to windy again Thursday into Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1005 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 The area will be under mid level southwest flow today as a cutoff low tracks across SoCal today. Breezy conditions continue the first few hours after sunset and then will begin to relax. Tuesday will feature another breezy day with southwest winds during the afternoon as the aforementioned trough will make it's way over the Four Corners and into CO. Wind speeds tomorrow look similar to what we'll see today, but just a little weaker. Blowing dust possible again tomorrow. Wednesday will feature the lightest winds of the work week. Wednesday through Friday looks dry. Breezy to windy conditions return Thursday and Friday along with the blowing dust threat. Very dry air and breezy winds will increase the fire weather threat as well. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 553 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Lots of wind and a little dust this afternoon. What limited dust there is will drop off in the next couple of hours, but the wind gusts will linger well into the evening. But most of the wind gusts will drop off around midnight. The winds tonight will continue from the southwest and we will see more gusty southwest winds on Tuesday. The winds may be a little less on Tuesday, but not by much. The mid and high cloud ceilings will continue tonight and during much of the day on Tuesday. Skies will begin to clear as we head into Tuesday evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1005 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Elevated to near critical fire weather concerns Tuesday due to breezy southwest 20 ft winds at 10-20 mph. Near critical to critical min RHs across a good portion of the lowlands of SW New Mexico with values generally 12-20% (30-40% in the area mountains). Drier air pushes in Wednesday, crashing min RHs down to the single digits (7-10% in the lowlands, 15-20% in mountains). However, winds will be the lightest on Wednesday with speeds of 5-10 mph. Breezy conditions expected Thursday and Friday, combined with critical min RHs will allow for near critical to critical fire weather concerns. Min RHs will still be in the single digits across the lowlands (5-10%) and 10-15% in the area mountains on Thursday. Wind speeds will be 10-20 mph out of the southwest. The Gila region, Black Range, Sierra County, high terrain in the NM Bootheel and even portions of the Sacramento Mtns will have the best chance to see Red Flag conditions. By Friday, will still see critical min RHs across the lowlands with values of 8-11% and 15-20% in the mountains. 20 ft wind speeds will be around 10-20 mph again. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 60 81 52 78 / 10 10 0 0 Sierra Blanca 55 76 49 74 / 0 10 20 0 Las Cruces 52 77 43 74 / 10 10 0 0 Alamogordo 52 76 43 74 / 20 10 10 0 Cloudcroft 38 53 32 51 / 20 10 10 0 Truth or Consequences 52 74 45 74 / 10 0 0 0 Silver City 42 64 36 66 / 40 0 0 0 Deming 50 77 41 76 / 20 10 0 0 Lordsburg 46 72 38 73 / 30 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 60 79 52 77 / 10 10 10 0 Dell City 52 80 47 77 / 0 10 0 0 Fort Hancock 60 84 53 81 / 0 10 10 0 Loma Linda 55 73 48 71 / 10 10 10 0 Fabens 59 82 51 79 / 0 10 10 0 Santa Teresa 56 79 46 76 / 10 10 10 0 White Sands HQ 58 78 50 76 / 10 10 10 0 Jornada Range 50 77 40 75 / 10 10 0 0 Hatch 52 78 40 77 / 10 0 0 0 Columbus 55 80 46 77 / 10 10 0 0 Orogrande 51 77 45 74 / 10 10 10 0 Mayhill 45 66 37 64 / 10 10 10 0 Mescalero 42 64 34 62 / 20 10 10 0 Timberon 41 62 36 60 / 10 10 10 0 Winston 39 65 30 68 / 30 0 0 0 Hillsboro 49 71 40 73 / 20 0 0 0 Spaceport 47 74 38 75 / 10 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 40 64 31 67 / 50 0 0 0 Hurley 42 69 35 70 / 40 0 0 0 Cliff 44 70 34 73 / 40 0 0 0 Mule Creek 40 65 34 70 / 50 0 0 0 Faywood 45 69 38 69 / 30 0 0 0 Animas 49 75 40 75 / 20 0 0 0 Hachita 49 75 40 75 / 20 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 50 76 40 75 / 10 0 0 0 Cloverdale 47 70 40 70 / 10 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...Blowing Dust Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley. && $$ FORECASTER...15-Brice  441 FXUS63 KMQT 140007 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 807 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of showers and thunderstorms lifts into the UP tonight through early Tuesday morning. There is a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms across the stateline border counties, although the chances seem to be decreasing as most convection is now predicted south of us in Wisconsin. - Any heavy rainfall received will exacerbate ongoing flooding concerns. There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 4) for flash flooding with tonight into early Tuesday morning's rainfall event. - A prolonged period of well above freezing temperatures and higher dewpoints will bring increased snowmelt. This, combined with periods of potentially heavy rainfall and thunderstorms, will accelerate river rises and lead to ponding of water in areas with poor drainage. A Flood Watch remains in place for all of Upper Michigan through Wednesday morning && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 155 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Satellite imagery shows low-level cloud cover remaining across most of the U.P. early this afternoon as very weak high pressure ridging moves through the area. The low-level clouds are thanks to the warm temperatures and dewpoints moving over the remaining melting snowpack, which has caused some fog problems since yesterday afternoon. However, with sunshine now starting to show itself in southern Menominee County this afternoon, temperatures down that way are rising into the lower 60s. Thinking the 50s to lower 60s will be seen across the area by late this afternoon, with the warmest temperatures in the south central as the cloud cover slowly gives way to sunshine. That being said, another round of rainfall is expected to move through the U.P. tonight through early Tuesday morning. Thankfully for flooding and severe weather purposes, it looks like most of the rainfall and severe weather potential has shifted south of the area into Wisconsin over the past 24 hours. Thus, lower rainfall amounts are generally expected in comparison to 24 hours, as well as the threat being lowered for severe weather. That being said, we could see some spots get to around half an inch of liquid, with maybe an isolated spot or two getting up to 1 inch if some heavier rainfall hangs out for a couple of hours; the heaviest rainfall is still expected in the south central where flooding was and still is being seen from yesterday to now. As of right now, the latest HREF still brings a 10 to 40% chance of greater than 1" of rainfall tonight into Tuesday morning in the interior west, south central, and east, with the highest chances in the south central and interior west. Should the rainier solutions play out, we may see flooding exacerbated over these areas as US-2 and US-41 continue to have water flowing over them in northern Menominee County. In the low (5% or less) chance that we see severe weather, expect damaging hail followed by severe winds. However, with CAMs bringing convection further south, thinking the un-worked airflow into convection going over the south central tonight will be limited, and thus so should the severe weather threat; the area where the chance for severe weather is greatest is Menominee County. Behind the convection tonight into early Tuesday morning, expect a period of generally drier weather conditions as weak ridging builds in from northern Ontario Tuesday through Wednesday. Hopefully the slightly cooler air from northern Ontario and drier conditions will help to reduce the flooding risk across the area for the rest of this week. That being said, a weak shortwave low moving through the Upper Midwest could bring additional showers and thunderstorms to the U.P. late Tuesday into Tuesday night; whether this shortwave brings precipitation into the U.P. or not will depend on the strength of the ridging from northern Ontario. Another shortwave low moving through the Upper Midwest could bring additional rain showers and thunderstorms to the area around the Thursday time period, although with medium range guidance weakening the strength of this shortwave recently, it may only graze the south as it potentially moves through Lower Michigan; again, it will depend on the strength of the remnant high pressure ridging from northern Ontario. The warmest conditions of the weak move in on Friday as a cold air from northern Canada causes a robust cold front to develop across the central CONUS late this week. With PWATs looking to rapidly increase to around 1 inch in the warm sector via Gulf air ahead of the cold front, the NBM brings up to a 90% chance for temperatures greater than 70 to the western half of the U.P. as dewpoints have a 20 to 50% chance of exceeding 50 degrees (highest chances in the south central and interior west). Combined with intensifying southerly winds, this becomes a recipe for accelerating snowmelt on the snowpack that we have left across the area. Now, where guidance diverges for this week is whether or not a shortwave low lifts through the area before and/or after the arrival of the cold front. Expect higher rain totals if a shortwave rolls through the area before the cold front moves through, as the cold front could bring additional showers and storms across the area into early this weekend. However, if a shortwave low rolls through the area immediately behind the cold front (like the latest deterministic Euro is suggesting), then the western half of the U.P. may be in for a significant wet snowfall event. Therefore, while the confidence is low at this time, we will keep an eye out to see if model guidance continues to converge on a solution. Regardless, there is fairly good agreement that colder temperatures and at the very least light snowfall will be seen over the northwest to west wind snow belts behind the cold front to end the weekend. Expect a transition to more normal temperatures early next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 804 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Widespread IFR/LIFR flight restrictions to persist tonight at all TAF sites as scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms move through the TAF sites. Simultaneously, fog will continue to reduce visibilities, and overnight cooling will help reinforce the IFR/LIFR conditions, possibly dropping as low as VLIFR at times near daybreak tomorrow. Do not expect conditions to improve above IFR at all through this TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 212 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Light winds of generally 20 knots or less continue through the rest of the workweek as shortwave lows move through the area and bring showers and storms to Lake Superior occasionally between tonight and Thursday. Weak high pressure ridging moving through Tuesday through Wednesday may keep the lake dry, but confidence is low at this point as the precipitation chances will be dependent on the strength of the ridging. Nevertheless, here are the time periods where thunderstorm activity is possible over Lake Superior: tonight/early Tuesday, and Thursday. That being said, the chance for rain showers and thunderstorms on Thursday remains low as the shortwave currently looks to lift too far to the south to impact Lake Superior. In addition to the winds and rain/storm chances, we may see fog form over Lake Superior a few times throughout the week; indeed, marine dense fog is looking increasingly likely tonight and may warrant a Marine Dense Fog Advisory in the near future. The main pattern shift for the period looks to come late this week through this weekend as a cold front approaches from the central CONUS. Expect increasing airflow from the Gulf ahead of the cold front to intensify winds from the south and southeast Friday, with over a 30% chance (highest over the open waters of the east according to the NBM) of increasing to gales of at least 34 knots by Friday night before the cold front moves through the lake around the Saturday time period. Behind the cold front, as the strong cold air advection improves mixing of the higher winds aloft to the sfc, expect the winds to become northwesterly as gale chances increase up to 50% late in the day through Saturday night. In addition to the winds, some thunderstorms may be seen ahead of and along the cold front late Friday into Saturday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 304 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 In response to the ongoing snowmelt and heavy rainfall that occurred yesterday, river rises and flooding of low-lying areas are expected/are occurring across Upper Michigan, particularly over the south central where rainfall up to 4 inches fell, causing inundation over several roadways (including US-2/US-41) even through today. While much of the area near Wisconsin lost the entirety of their snowpack yesterday through last night, several inches to over a foot(!) of SWE remains over the Keweenaw and higher elevations of the north central U.P., as well as portions of the eastern U.P. upslope from Lake Superior over the northwest wind belts. Thus, while flooding concerns look to start dwindling over the areas near Wisconsin after Tuesday, expect continued snowmelt over the remaining areas to continue river rises over those areas with or downbasin from an area with notable snowpack remaining. Because of this and the rainfall chances expected through the rest of this week (including tonight, which I will touch on in the next paragraph), river flooding to bankfull conditions are being seen across several rivers across Upper Michigan. Starting with the Black River near Bessemer, the quick loss of snowpack with the rainfall yesterday has created Minor Flooding conditions which are forecasted to continue until Tuesday; bankfull conditions for the Black River look to continue until Tuesday night. Moving over to the Sturgeon River at Alston, Minor Flooding is currently being realized; with plenty of snowpack left to melt, expect the river levels to slowly rise the rest of this week into early this weekend. The high river levels at Alston and high flow at Prickett Dam may also bring elevated river levels to Chassell later this week; we will continue to monitor the local observations over there and issue products accordingly should bankfull and/or floodstage be achieved along the Sturgeon River at Chassell. Moving along to the Paint River at Crystal Falls, Moderate Flooding is expected starting late Tuesday as we move into Minor Flood Stage this evening. While not quite looking to get into Major Flood Stage, river heights are currently expected to get up to 8.5", which does start to approach the River Flood of Record. Moving into the Michigamme River basin, some bankfull conditions to Minor River Flooding looks possible at Bangston Bridge and Witch Lake late this week as the snowmelt in the basin progressively melts and increases flows with time. As for the Ford River, we are currently flirting with bankfull conditions this afternoon and could go over tonight given the chances for rainfall (some potentially heavy at times). Moving over to the Escanaba River, bankfull to Minor River Flood conditions are expected over the Middle Branch at Humboldt and the Eastern Branch at Gwinn. Given the recent call with one of the dam operators in Escanaba about the high flows, will continue to keep an eye on the snowmelt in the north central as rainfall moving through tonight could help to push- up cfs to hazardous levels. As for the Sturgeon River (Delta County) at Nahma Junction, the recent heavy rainfall and snowmelt has caused river levels to exceed bankfull; I'd be shocked if the river doesn't go into Minor Flood Stage shortly as even the HEFS shows the river at about 100% for getting into Minor Flood Stage. As for the Manistique River, the increasing snowmelt and heavy rainfall recently (and potentially tonight) could bring above bankfull river levels, potentially causing ponding of water and inundation in low- lying areas near the river Tuesday and beyond; a Flood Advisory may need to be issued for this river's area of influence in the future. One more thing worth mentioning: while the flooding threat looks to progressively decrease in the areas near Wisconsin this week, with model guidance suggesting another round of rain showers and thunderstorms moving (mainly) through the south central tonight into early Tuesday morning, flooding concerns may be significantly increased as the area is still inundated from the previous rainfall and snowmelt. As of now, the south central has up to a 40% chance of receiving over an inch of liquid tonight. With the rainfall potentially being a torrential downpour at times, flooding along the US-2/US-41 corridor between Iron Mountain and Escanaba may worsen; additional roadways and areas may be inundated as the water within in the low-lying areas increases in height. Therefore, a Flood Warning may need to be re-issued for the southeastern Dickinson, northern Menominee, and western Delta county area once again this evening as the rain showers and thunderstorms begin to make there way into the U.P. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for MIZ001>007-009>014- 084-085. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for LMZ248-250. && $$ DISCUSSION...TAP AVIATION...TDUD MARINE...TAP HYDROLOGY...  750 FXUS61 KRNK 140007 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 807 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The aviation forecast has been updated. High confidence for multiple days of record or near-record high temperatures this week. A front could bring cooler weather early next week, but no widespread rainfall expected. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A strong upper level ridge will build overhead for the next few days with record heat possible by Wednesday. Little if any relief is expected from the ongoing drought. 2. A potential cool down by early next week as a front approaches the region. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Strong high pressure will be the dominant weather feature through the remainder of the coming week and record breaking heat is likely as early as Wednesday. Little, if any relief is expected from the ongoing drought. Temperatures are expected to 15-25 degrees above average this week in persistent WSW flow. This heat will be well out of normal bounds for this time of year, with the ECMWF EFI, shift- of- tails and the NAEFS Situational Awareness Table indicating this is an unusual and most likely record breaking heat wave for early April. Many records will likely be challenged or broken this week in the Mid Atlantic, see the Climate section below for more info. Periodic cloud cover and a very isolated shower or thunderstorm possible most afternoons in the mountains. Any rainfall will remain very light in this weather pattern, and will do nothing to improve drought conditions in the region. For today, we are outlooked by SPC for critical fire conditions, and a Fire Danger Statement is in effect for all of Virginia and portions of North Carolina. Additional Fire Danger Statements may be needed through the week. Please see fire weather section for more info. KEY MESSAGE 2: A potential cool down by early next week as a front approaches the region. Guidance is beginning to show hints of a cool down by late Sunday and into Monday next week as a strong cold front pushes through the region. If this occurs, this will bring an end to the record breaking heat that is expected to occur this week. Temperatures will fall back closer to April normals. However, widespread rainfall still does not look likely to occur with the frontal passage at this time. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions expected through the conclusion of the valid TAF period, 00Z Wed/8PM EDT. A few showers will be possible this evening between KBLF-KJFZ. Winds across the mountains may be gusty to 15 to 20kts through perhaps 01Z, but trend quickly to light and variable, or light west. Winds remain on the light side through mid-day Tuesday when the approach the 7 to 10 kt range. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Mainly dry with VFR conditions throughout the rest of the week. Winds will generally be out of the southwest, and gusts up to 20 knots are possible each afternoon as the boundary layer warms and mixes. The only chances of showers that could temporarily halt the ongoing dry spell occur during the afternoons across the mountains. These will be very isolated and will fade with loss of daytime heating. && .FIRE WEATHER... Unusually warm and dry conditions will take place with record heat possible beginning by midweek. Rainfall appears minimal as any chances of showers or thunderstorms remain limited to southeast West Virginia. Otherwise, drought conditions will worsen as minimum relative humidity values fall towards 20 to 35 percent each afternoon. Some of the southern facing slopes may have minimum relative humidity values drop to 15 to 20 percent with afternoon sunshine and gusty winds due to an unstable atmosphere from the increasing heat. These aforementioned conditions and the increasing warmth will escalate fire danger across the entire region. The anomalous heat and low humidity combined with daytime gusts will only make fire containment increasingly difficult throughout the week. Winds today remain gusty from the southwest through the evening and coupled with very dry fuels, fires could be difficult to suppress. A Fire Danger Statement has been issued for all of Virginia and portions of Virginia. An additional Fire Danger Statement may be needed on Tuesday. && .CLIMATE... Tuesday Station Hi Max TLo Max THi Min TLo Min T Roanoke91 in 194542 in 195067 in 192226 in 1950 Lynchburg91 in 194142 in 194363 in 201426 in 1973 Danville91 in 194545 in 200075 in 192230 in 1975 Bluefield83 in 193031 in 195064 in 197720 in 1950 Blacksburg82 in 194138 in 194360 in 194118 in 1973 Wednesday StationHi Max TLo Max THi Min TLo Min T Roanoke89 in 193645 in 194367 in 202425 in 1950 Lynchburg89 in 194145 in 194365 in 189628 in 1950 Danville91 in 200648 in 194368 in 192227 in 1943 Bluefield89 in 192232 in 194360 in 200621 in 1957 Blacksburg83 in 194138 in 196257 in 195419 in 1950 && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BMG/PW AVIATION...BMG/DS FIRE WEATHER...BMG/SH CLIMATE...SH  745 FXUS65 KBYZ 140011 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Billings MT 611 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain gradually tapers off over eastern Montana this evening into tonight. - Stronger and colder storm system late Wednesday into Friday will bring significantly colder temperatures, high chances (50-90%) for precipitation (including low elevation snow potential Thursday night) and the potential for heavy mountain snow. - Warmer and Dry next Weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Rest of Today through Sunday... This afternoon/evening...Upper level low over ID/W MT will kick more energy over the area this afternoon and evening, producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Any thunderstorms will capable of producing brief gusty winds, while those over SE MT may be able to produce a few 50+ mph gusts along with small hail and brief heavy rainfall. Energy lingers over SE MT well into the evening and slow moving storms there could put down a third to over half an inch of rainfall in a few spots. Other than rain/thunderstorms, the only other impactful weather this afternoon/evening will be gusty winds (30-50mph) over the western foothills that may reach as far east as a Lavina to Columbus. These winds should diminish early this evening. Tuesday looks mainly dry and warmer with zonal flow developing aloft as energy from the synoptic trof to the west splits around our area. Downslope westerly winds will have a warming and drying affect over the region, with temperatures getting back into the mid to upper 60s. Wednesday will be a pre-frontal day as a cold upper low drops southeast out of SW Canada and approaches our area. Ahead of this system downslope winds will increase again along the western foothills with gusts in the 40 to 50 mph range for Livingston, Big Timber, and Harlowton. Expect gusts 20 to 35 mph to be common by afternoon for many areas. The downslope winds will help push afternoon temperatures toward 70 degrees central and east, while increasing cloud cover will hold western zones into the low/mid 60s. The first half of the day will be mainly dry, with shower chances increasing in the afternoon across the western mountains and foothills. With the warm temperatures and increasing dynamics, can't rule out an isolated afternoon thunderstorm for areas from Billings west. Upper low continues to progress southeast Wednesday night into Thursday. Latest models are starting to show a more prominent split with this system as it gets near our area, with the deterministic ECMWF dragging most of the energy with the northern split that would significantly lower our precipitation amounts Thur/Fri. Deterministic GFS is closer to what the models have been showing over the past few days with a split occurring very close to our area with most of the energy taking the southern track putting a good deal of energy over the western half of the forecast area, along with a good low level upslope wind field, thus more precipitation, especially in our mountains. ECMWF EFI does show a shift of tails over the Beartooth/Absaroka for snow/precip on Thursday indicating outlier potential for significant snowfall above the 90th percentile, but the ECMWF and its members are trending drier with this system over the past few runs. The lag built into the NBM will take a bit of time to catch up to recent drier trends in the ECMWF, so the latest NBM guidance remains bullish on precipitation and mountain snowfall. Currently showing around an inch of precipitation in the forecast for all area mountains with more than a foot of snow advertised out of that liquid. Contemplated issuing a Winter Storm Watch for the Crazy and Beartooth/Absaroka mountains with this package, but given the increasing split and in coordination with neighboring offices/WPC elected to hold off one more model run and see if models come to a bit better agreement. Given the heaviest precipitation is Thursday there is still time for a watch to be issued and we will continue to message the potential for precipitation and heavy mountain snow in other products today. Probabilities for a quarter of an inch or more precipitation with this system range from 50-90% over western and central areas, to 20-40% from Rosebud county east. Snow levels trend downward quickly Wednesday into Thursday, dropping from around 7000 feet Wednesday afternoon to around 3500 feet by Thursday afternoon. This brings lower elevation snowfall into play with this system by late in the day Thursday and certainly Thursday night into Friday. Will have to see how the precipitation potential evolves over the next few model runs to get a better handle on how much snow potential lower elevations will have. Current probabilities for 2+ inches of snow are 10% for Billings, 70% Livingston, 40% Lodge Grass, 65% Sheridan, and 10-15% Miles City/Broadus/Baker. Stay tuned if you have outdoor or travel plans Thu-Fri as this system is evolving in the models. Friday looks cool and unsettled. Depending on the behavior of the upper trof there could be lingering precipitation through the day, especially over southern upslope favored areas, or gusty northwest winds could dry things out and it will just be cool and windy. Ridging develops for the weekend with warmer and drier conditions taking hold. Temperatures rebound from the 30s/40s Thur/Fri to the mid to upper 60s by Sunday. Chambers .AVIATION... 00Z Discussion...The area of light to moderate rain near KMLS early this evening will slowly progress east before moving into the Dakotas tonight. While an occasional lightning strike remains possible within this area of precipitation this evening (slight, 15 percent chance), the main threats are gusty and erratic winds and periodic MVFR conditions under heavier showers. After this precipitation comes to an end early Tuesday morning, there is a slight chance (20 percent) for patchy fog mainly over the river valleys of eastern Montana. Any fog that does develop will lift by mid- morning. Look for VFR conditions to prevail Tuesday. Arends && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 039/066 041/067 040/049 028/047 029/059 034/068 042/071 20/U 11/B 47/O 53/J 21/B 00/U 12/W LVM 034/061 038/060 031/041 021/043 023/054 031/063 037/065 21/N 04/W 89/S 64/J 21/U 01/N 13/W HDN 037/067 037/070 039/053 026/047 024/059 029/069 039/073 21/U 11/B 38/O 64/J 21/B 00/U 12/W MLS 039/065 039/069 041/054 025/042 021/055 028/067 038/072 60/U 11/B 24/O 42/J 11/U 00/U 01/U 4BQ 037/064 038/069 042/060 025/041 021/053 028/066 038/072 20/U 11/U 14/R 73/J 11/B 00/U 01/U BHK 036/064 038/068 040/059 024/039 018/049 024/063 035/069 81/U 11/U 12/R 52/J 11/B 00/U 00/U SHR 031/060 033/066 038/054 022/041 019/052 026/064 034/068 11/U 01/U 19/R 86/J 22/W 00/U 01/U && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings  183 FXUS61 KOKX 140012 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 812 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Small Craft Advisories for the non ocean waters cancelled. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Well above normal temperatures forecast through the rest of the work week. Near-record highs expected Tuesday through Thursday with daily chances for showers and possible thunderstorms. 2) Strong cold front Sunday with temperatures returning to near to slightly below normal Sunday night and Monday. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... We will continue a remarkable warming trend through Friday. Near-record highs are expected Tuesday through Thursday, with the warmest day on Wednesday. Even Friday will continue the well-above average trend in temperatures. Tue-Thu highs will be in the mid/upper-80s in NE NJ, NYC metro, and southern sections of the Lower Hudson Valley. A few locations could even see a few temperature readings touching 90 on Wednesday. These warm temperatures are a good 25-30 degrees above normal for this time if year. The highest confidence for reaching 90 degrees will be across portions of NE NJ. If this were to occur, parts of the area could see a moderate heat risk. This means, heat could become an issue for those who are sensitive to heat, especially those without proper cooling/hydration. As you move further east and along the coastal locations, temperatures will be significantly cooler with highs in the 70s. All this warm weather is aided in large part by anomalous heights aloft (500mb heights around 575-580 dam) and 850 mb temps more than 10C above average. While we have mainly zonal flow aloft, several subtle shortwaves embedded in the zonal flow will pass to our north through the week's end. This will lead to a series of passing weak lows to our north that bring daily chances for showers this evening through Thursday. Chances remain quite low on Tuesday but better on Wednesday. Thunderstorms appear isolated on Tuesday with most instability situated too far north, but Wednesday seems to have a better shot at seeing thunderstorms. The latest guidance shows more instability on Wednesday and given its our warmest day of the week, daytime heating with help with this. The main issue we have for thunderstorms on Wednesday is a lack of strong lift. .KEY MESSAGE 2... A strong cold front is forecast to move through the region during Sunday, while there are still some timing difference, consenus is for a cold frontal passage Sunday afternoon. Showers will accompany the passage, with a chance of thunder as well. After a prolonged period of above normal temperatures, the cold front passage will return temperatures to near to slightly below normal Sunday night through Monday night. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure well offshore remains through the TAF period. Mostly VFR forecast expected through the TAF period. However, there are some exceptions. First with some rain showers moving across this evening which could make for brief MVFR visibilities this evening. Second, MVFR/IFR fog will be possible late tonight into early Tuesday morning for some terminals, particularly more eastern terminals. Have a TEMPO group just for KGON and KISP but other terminals could develop fog as well. Regarding winds, they are SW near 10-15 kt this evening with some gusts to near 20-25 kt. Winds diminish overnight with direction becoming more variable. SW winds forecast are near 5-7 kts Tuesday morning. Winds increase Tuesday afternoon out of the SW to near 10-15 kt with gusts near 20-25 kt. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Fog possible at KJFK early Tuesday morning, 08-12Z, MVFR to IFR possible. Timing of gusts could be off by 1-3 hours. For Tuesday afternoon, peak gusts to near 30 kt possible. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... Tuesday night: Mainly VFR. Possible showers/tstms early with brief MVFR possible. SW wind gusts near 20 kt will be diminishing. Wednesday through Saturday: Mainly VFR but with chance of afternoon and evening showers/tstms each day, mainly NW of the NYC metros, with brief flight cat reduction to MVFR. SW winds could gusts 15-20kt each afternoon Wed-Thu as well. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Winds gusts on the non ocean waters have fallen to below 25 knots early this Monday evening, and the Small Craft Advisory has been cancelled. For the ocean waters gusts have diminished early this Monday evening, mainly to 20 knots or less, and lowered the gusts. Seas remain elevated therefore the Small Craft Advisory continues. Conditions subside into tonight, first across the western ocean and into late tonight east of Fire Island Inlet. By Tuesday AM sub advisory conditions will prevail across all waters. Sub- SCA conditions will then remain through Thursday. Sub advisory conditions are expected on all the waters Thursday night through Saturday night. && .CLIMATE... Daily record high temperatures that could be reached: Wed, April 15: KEWR: 88/1960 KBDR: 81/1960 KNYC: 87/1941 KLGA: 86/1941 KJFK: 80/2006 KISP: 78/2024 Daily record high minimum temperatures that could be reached: Tue, April 14: KEWR: 62/2014 KBDR: 54/2023 KNYC: 70/2023 KLGA: 67/2023 KJFK: 55/2023 KISP: 54/2022 Wed, April 15: KEWR: 60/2023 KBDR: 53/2012 KNYC: 67/1941 KLGA: 64/1941 KJFK: 58/1960 KISP: 56/2023 Thu, April 16: KEWR: 64/2002 KBDR: 53/2002 KNYC: 69/2002 KLGA: 68/2002 KJFK: 57/2002 KISP: 55/2012 Fri, April 17: KEWR: 68/2002 KBDR: 57/2002 KNYC: 74/2002 KLGA: 73/2002 KJFK: 60/2002 KISP: 61/2002 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ355. && $$ DISCUSSION...BR/MET/BC AVIATION...JM MARINE...BR/MET  685 FXUS61 KGYX 140015 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 815 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Blended in the latest surface observations and tweaked the near term portion of the forecast. Also, added patchy fog into the forecast for tonight. Finally, let the small craft advisory expire for Casco and western Penobscot Bay. There is a chance for a few strong to severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening across southwest New Hampshire. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Warm with a chance for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across southwest New Hampshire. 2. Above normal temperatures persist into the weekend, along with chances for showers most days. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Low pressure passing north of Maine this afternoon will lift a warm front through the area this evening with the cold front then stalling near the Canadian Border tonight. There will be continued chances for showers this evening with areas south of the mountains turning mostly dry overnight. A warmer air mass combined with partly to mostly sunny skies Tuesday morning will allow for temperatures to climb into the 60s across much of the area with 70s likely across interior western Maine and southern NH. Onshore winds will develop by afternoon keeping coastal areas cooler. Remnant convection from the Midwest will track along the stalled cold front Tuesday and much of the latest NWP guidance brings this activity across northern New England Tuesday afternoon and evening. However, there are timing and trajectory differences amongst CAM solutions which has implications for the potential of strong to severe thunderstorms. The 12Z HREF mean brings 500-1000 J/kg of MU CAPE into portions of southwest New Hampshire with around 40 kts of deep layer shear. The late outlook from SPC brings a Marginal Risk for severe storms into far SW New Hampshire with general thunder across much of the rest of the area. The primary threat from storms will be strong winds and will watch timing and instability trends to better gauge the potential threat. Chances for storms diminish Tuesday night with fog possible along the coastal plain. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... A large ridge persists across the Eastern US through the week and into the weekend. Northern New England finds itself positioned on the northern periphery of the ridge, bringing an increased chance for showers and many warm-up thwarting variables through the week. Southwestern New Hampshire holds the best chance to see the warmest readings each day through the weekend, but uncertainty grows further north and east across the forecast area for the forecast period as to how warm temps will really reach. Each day brings chances for showers as remnant convection from the day before across the Midwest rolls around the ridge and through the area. Clouds and showers from these hinder warmer temperatures chances toward the north. Additionally, seabreezes and southerly flow keep the Maine coast and central Maine on the relatively cooler side. Wednesday holds the best chance for southern New Hampshire to hit 80 degrees this week. 60s and 70s are most likely elsewhere. Then by Thursday a backdoor front likely brings a break in the warm up. The current NBM forecast has mainly 50s to low 60s across Maine, but there remains the chance conditions will end up gloomier than this. Western NH in the CT River Valley holds the best chance to hold onto the warmer temps through the week with 70s more likely. Late week and into the weekend, the warm up likely gets knocked back from a combination of back door fronts and leftover ridge rolling convection before a transition to northwesterly flow behind a passing cold front by early next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through Tuesday...Patchy FG may result in localized restrictions at times tonight but otherwise mainly VFR CIGS are expected through the period with light and variable winds. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible after 18Z with strong to severe storms possible at KLEB extending to KMHT, KCON, although confidence is low. Showers and storm chances diminish Tuesday night with fog possible along the coastal plain that could bring at least IFR. Outlook... Wednesday-Friday: MVFR likely to continue due to showers. Periods of VFR are more likely across Southern NH terminals. Saturday: Mainly VFR expected. Saturday Night- Sunday: MVFR more likely with showers. && .MARINE... Strong southwest winds continue SCA conditions overnight with winds diminishing towards Tuesday morning. Winds and seas generally stay below SCA threshold Tuesday into Tuesday night. Generally fair conditions are expected mid to late week as a ridge persists across the Gulf of Maine. A backdoor cold front brings northeasterly flow on Thursday. Winds shift between southerly and northeasterly as the front lingers into the weekend. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ150-152-154. && $$ Update... Tubbs  343 FXUS62 KGSP 140017 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 817 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... An SPS for Increased Fire Danger has been issued Tuesday for the North Carolina Piedmont and Northeast Georgia from 12 PM to 8 PM. The aviation discussion was updated for the 00Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Fire weather concerns continue amid a dry and stagnant weather pattern. A Fire Danger Statement is in effect from Tuesday from 12 PM to 8 PM for the North Carolina Piedmont and northeast Georgia. 2. Dry and hot through Saturday with daily record highs in jeopardy Tuesday through Saturday. A cold front may finally bring some drought relief Sunday, but that is more uncertain. Seasonable but very dry Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Key message 1: Fire weather concerns continue amid a dry and stagnant weather pattern. A Fire Danger Statement is in effect from Tuesday from 12 PM to 8 PM for the North Carolina Piedmont and northeast Georgia. With fire weather concerns remaining elevated on Tuesday, another Special Weather Statement for Increased Fire Danger was issued for Tuesday across the North Carolina Piedmont and northeast Georgia from 12 PM to 8 PM. Although steady SW winds will continue, they'll advect very little additional moisture into the area. Dewpoints should hover within a degree or two of what we saw this afternoon, and temperatures will increase at least a category...so RH on Tuesday should bottom out about as dry as today, despite marginally less dry air aloft to mix down. The remainder of the week looks like on-and-off fire wx will remain an issue. Near-critical RHs expected each afternoon through this weekend, with little if any wetting rain and ongoing D2 to D3 drought, will drive continued potential for wildfire development and spread...so more Fire Danger products are probably in the cards. Key message 2: Dry and hot through Saturday with daily record highs in jeopardy Tuesday through Saturday. A cold front may finally bring some drought relief Sunday, but that is more uncertain. Seasonable but very dry Monday. An upper upper ridge and surface Bermuda high will bring summer-like conditions to the area into Saturday. A cold front does approach the area on Thursday but is mainly deflected by the high. Can't rule out isolated showers for the mountains late Thursday or Thursday night, but overall chance is low. While the heat will be summer- like, and near daily record highs, the humidity won't. Relative humidity values will be in the 25 to 30 percent range each afternoon, keeping the potential for high fire danger in place, even winds on the lighter side. That said, gusty winds may develop Thursday and again on Saturday, which could make fire weather conditions worse. There are still questions regarding the amount of moisture available ahead of the cold front on Sunday. The GFS continues to low rain chances for the mountains but little to no rain elsewhere as it keeps the low level flow more westerly limiting any Gulf moisture inflow. The Canadian has trended in this direction as well. The ECMWF remains on the wetter side, but favors NC over the Upstate and NE GA. The model blend is similar to the ECMWF, so chance PoP is limited to NC at this time. Therefore, questions remain on the potential for any significant drought relief. Temps cool on Sunday but remain well above normal. Temps fall to near normal behind the front on Monday, but the airmass is very dry with relative humidity falling back to critically low levels. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Continued dry and VFR through the period. SSW winds to become light this evening with just some CI and AC. Throughout Tuesday just some CI and developing high based CU is expected. Winds will remain SSW and develop low-amplitude gusts in the afternoon. Outlook: Dry and VFR conditions persist through at least Wednesday. && .CLIMATE... RECORDS FOR 04-14 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 86 2006 36 1907 62 1922 24 1950 KCLT 89 1941 46 1907 69 1922 27 1950 KGSP 92 1916 48 1901 67 1922 22 1907 RECORDS FOR 04-15 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 89 1972 42 1943 64 1887 23 1907 KCLT 89 1936 46 1889 66 2006 28 1907 KGSP 91 2006 45 1913 69 1922 22 1907 RECORDS FOR 04-16 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 87 2006 42 1905 62 1945 26 1943 KCLT 89 2006 49 1890 64 1998 29 2008 1896 1991 1962 1945 KGSP 88 1888 54 1903 64 1945 24 1907 RECORDS FOR 04-17 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 89 1896 45 1890 63 1927 26 1904 KCLT 94 1896 47 1890 66 1896 30 2018 1949 KGSP 92 2006 51 1904 63 1927 25 1905 RECORDS FOR 04-18 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 90 1896 44 1921 60 1927 28 1905 1891 KCLT 93 1896 45 1983 66 1896 32 2001 KGSP 89 2002 51 1983 66 1927 28 1905 1967 && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029. NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for NCZ036-037-056-057-068>072-082. SC...None. && $$ AR/CSH  339 FXUS65 KPSR 140018 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 518 PM MST Mon Apr 13 2026 .UPDATE...Updated 00Z Aviation Discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - A weather system will swing through the region today and tonight bringing more breezy to locally windy conditions as well as chances for light showers focused over the Arizona high terrain. - Weak high pressure will settle back into the region during the middle of the week leading to drier and slightly warmer conditions. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Large scale troughing continues over much of Western CONUS with upper level moisture being advected into the region from the SW. Following close behind the main troughing feature is another smaller disturbance that has already begun to merge with the main trough and is diving down California's coast, moving closer to the Desert SW. However, a patch of dry air can be seen on GOES water vapor imagery to the regions west, which will dry out the upper levels as it pushes inland along with the aforementioned trough starting this evening and overnight. Hi-Res CAMs suggest some isolated showers likely to develop however will be fighting against a dry boundary layer, so much of the lower deserts will at most see a trace while the Arizona higher terrain may receive a few hundredths to up to a tenth of an inch in localized areas. As the disturbance continues to weaken and lifts to the northeast on Tuesday, a few light showers may still be possible during the morning hours over far eastern Arizona. Otherwise, breezy to windy conditions will continue across the vast majority of the region this afternoon as these systems move through. Wind gusts this afternoon/evening will be between 20-30 mph, with periods of 30-40 mph possible in southeastern California. Winds across most of the region are expected to relax by midnight tonight, with the exception of southeast California, where winds will persist through the morning hours. Thanks to these systems, afternoon high temperatures will be below normal for this time of year. Today's high temperature will be in the mid to upper 70s across southeast California, and in the upper 70s to low 80s in the Phoenix area. By tomorrow, southeast California will begin to warm back up into the upper 70s to low 80s as the system pushes farther eastwards, while the Phoenix area will be in the upper 70s. This will be the coolest day of the week for the Phoenix area. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Shortwave ridging will briefly move through the region on Wednesday leading to another quiet day while temperatures warm back into the mid 80s for most lower desert locations. A robust Pacific low pressure system will also move through the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday on its way to the Great Basin by Thursday. Ensembles continue to favor a more northern track with this low across the Great Basin and into the Central Rockies while also weakening. The base of the trough may clip Arizona, but all indications so far keep any system energy and moisture well to our north. However, the fairly close proximity of the system should be enough to bring more breezy to locally windy conditions on Thursday and/or Friday while also leading to a slight dip in temperatures likely for Friday. Looking ahead for next weekend a more significant ridge is expected to move over the Western U.S. with the NBM suggesting a return of highs back into the 90s by Sunday. Fortunately, this warm up may be fairly brief as guidance mostly favors another trough moving in from the west northwest at some point during the first half of next week. && .AVIATION...Updated at 0015Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: The main aviation concern during the TAF period will be breezy conditions during much of the afternoon and evening hours. Winds have finally become west/southwesterly early this evening with gusts into the upper teens to low 20s. These gusts will continue through most of the night, with a brief period (03-05Z) of some higher gusts into the mid to upper 20s possible as a cold front moves through the region. Winds will taper off into the overnight hours. Confidence remains low, but VCSH/virga, associated with the cold front, will also be possible late this evening (04-06Z). The the timing remains too short and potential remains too low to warrant inclusion of SHRA/VCSH in the TAFs at this time. Wind speeds will taper off overnight tonight, falling to around 10 kt. Confidence is low in a E/SE wind shift overnight/early tomorrow morning and winds may just stay W/SW or go light and variable. If winds were to go SE this looks to occur during the 12-17Z window. Westerly winds will reestablish themselves tomorrow afternoon with wind speeds picking up to around 10 kt. Considerable cloud cover (with bases around 6-9 kft) will continue through this evening before thinning out overnight with mostly clear skies returning tomorrow. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: The main aviation concerns at both TAF sites will be gusty winds, this evening. W'rly winds will be favored at KIPL through the whole TAF period and SW'rly winds will be favored at KBLH through most of the period before going light and variable early tomorrow morning before developing a NE component tomorrow afternoon. Current gusts around 25-30 kt will continue at both TAf sites before speeds lighten to around 10-15 kt later this evening and then go aob 10 kt during the overnight/early morning hours. Skies will slowly clear out this evening with mostly clear skies returning during the overnight hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... A weather system will pass through the region this evening through the overnight period, with chances for mostly high terrain showers, but CWR will be less than 10%. Today will again be quite breezy with afternoon and evening wind gusts between 20-30 mph over much of the area. MinRHs today will rise to 25-30% before lowering to 15-25% Tuesday and 10-15% starting Wednesday as dry air fully encompasses the region. Overall light winds are forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday while temperatures warm back into the normal range by Wednesday. Dry conditions will prevail through the rest of the week, but a passing weather system on Thursday and Friday should bring another round of breezy to windy conditions. The low humidities and the increased winds late week may bring a period of elevated fire weather conditions heading into the weekend. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Ryan LONG TERM...Kuhlman AVIATION...Berislavich/RW FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman/Ryan  455 FXUS64 KOHX 140020 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 720 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 714 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 - Continued unseasonal warmth through the upcoming week. Record highs are possible Tuesday and Wednesday. - Medium to high rain chances forecast on Thursday (30-70%). - Medium rain/storm chances this weekend along a cold front. No severe weather is expected at this time. && .UPDATE... Issued at 714 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 The shower activity is leaving the plateau this evening with dry conditions returning. Rain amounts varied from nothing up to a few hundredths today. Tuesday will be warmer with more sunshine and some stronger ridging influences. Highs will top out in the low to mid 80s. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Tuesday) Issued at 1150 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A weak disturbance is passing through the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys currently and this is just enough for clouds and light rain across the Mid State. Amounts are very light, but this is certainly moderating temperatures. Rain activity will fade off mid to late afternoon with arrival of drier mid-level air. Tuesday will be another very warm day with ridging taking back over in the wake of the exiting shortwave. Ample sunshine and dry air will be in place with highs well into the 80s. We could approach records, in fact. The main concern tomorrow is continued fire weather concerns due to dryness, low RHs, and afternoon gusts 20-25 mph. Outdoor burning is highly discouraged. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday Night through next Monday) Issued at 1150 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Wednesday looks to be the warmest day of the forecast period with highs once again well into the 80s. The record of 87 degrees in BNA is in certain jeopardy. Thankfully we'll have another shot at rain and clouds on Thursday to help moderate temperatures. This disturbance appears to be more robust than the one moving through the area today which will provide better lift and overall moisture availability. PoPs and QPF have both increased, but this will also be another relatively light rainfall event that will no make significant drought improvements. And with the continued ups and downs, Friday into Saturday should be another brief period of warm, dry weather with synoptic ridging still in place across the Southeast. However, medium-range guidance is still consistent with a fairly potent upper-low and low pressure system moving through the Great Lakes Saturday night. A cold front is forecast to advance across Middle Tennesse bringing at least medium chances for rain and storms. I expect PoPs will continue to increase with this system. With the passage of the cold front, Sunday into early next week looks cooler as this trough/front passage looks to defeat the stubborn ridge in the region. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 601 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Lingering light showers will impact CSV over the next few hours, but the remainder of Middle TN terminals will remain dry through the period. SCT to BKN cloud cover around 15 kft will be in place tonight with relaxing southerly winds. Winds will shift southwesterly after 15Z with gusts 15-20 kts through Tuesday afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 65 87 64 86 / 10 10 0 0 Clarksville 66 87 66 86 / 10 10 0 0 Crossville 59 82 59 83 / 0 10 0 0 Columbia 64 87 62 86 / 10 0 0 0 Cookeville 61 82 61 83 / 10 10 0 0 Jamestown 60 83 59 84 / 10 10 0 0 Lawrenceburg 62 84 61 84 / 0 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 64 87 62 86 / 0 10 0 0 Waverly 66 87 66 86 / 10 10 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......Reagan SHORT TERM...Sizemore LONG TERM....Sizemore AVIATION.....Baggett  669 FXUS66 KMFR 140021 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 521 PM PDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .UPDATE...Aviation Discussion updated. && .DISCUSSION.../Issued 134 PM PDT Mon Apr 13 2026/ SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front will bring precipitation and snow to the higher Cascades Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Minor travel impacts are anticipated above 4000 feet. Colder air will settle into the valleys Wednesday night and Thursday night. DISCUSSION... A band of showers has started to fill in the radar mainly west of the Cascades this early afternoon. These showers will move farther east into the afternoon as they're likely enhanced by a short wave diving towards the southeast. High pressure will then build Monday night into Tuesday as the relative calm before the storm. It looks like there will be lots of clouds still covering the valleys overnight, except east of the Cascades, which will see pockets of clearing later tonight. Therefore, Klamath Falls could see some fog or perhaps freezing fog in the morning hours. Tuesday will be mostly quiet until the evening hours as this next system descends on the Pacific Northwest. A well defined cold front will progress through the Cascades and Oregon during Tuesday night and eventually pass completely through by Wednesday evening. The main impacts here will be snow in the Cascades and we have went with a winter weather advisory above 4000 feet to communicate this threat. The probability for >12 inches over our 'populated' areas in the high Cascades is roughly 50%. In addition, some warmer ground and melting when the snow hits the ground could mean this probabilities are a little high. Also, the extreme forecast index(EFI) continues to point towards values of 0.8 to 0.9, which denotes a strong snow event for mid April in the high Cascades. Once the front moves through, the cold air will settle into the valleys with snow levels falling down to 1800 feet on Wednesday night. Precipitation will trend lower once this colder relatively dry air settles into the valleys, although the NBM has a 40% chance of precipitation Wednesday night. Don't be surprised to see some trace amounts of snow along the coastal range and some of the valley edges Wednesday night. The near freezing temperatures will also threaten agricultural operations as lows hover right around freezing. The probability of sub-freezing temperatures in Medford is about 40% Wednesday night. We'll see highs in the mid 50's on Thursday with mid 40's east of the Cascades. This cold air is unusually, although not the coldest we can see this time of year. Basically 10 degrees below normal for the middle of April. Again, the valleys will have to deal with freezing temperatures on Thursday night. There will be less sky cover, especially farther south near the California and Oregon border. Mount Shasta City is currently forecast to tie the record minimum temperature of 25 set back in 2018 on Thursday night. Most other sites will be just a tad bit too warm to break a record. Friday and Saturday will likely be quiet before the next system strengthens in the north eastern Pacific off the coast of Washington. We'll likely see a shot of warm moist air before some cooler air settles in as the low moves closer to shore. Still more details to sort out, but we could see some more snow added to the mountains with this next event as well. -Smith && .AVIATION 00Z TAFs)... Conditions are mainly VFR. However MVFR is expected to develop along the coast tonight and persist into Tuesday. Local MVFR ceilings are possible late tonight and Tuesday morning west of the Cascades. Rain and areas of MVFR will move inland Tuesday afternoon along the coast and into areas from the Cascades west. && .MARINE...Updated 100 PM PDT Monday, April 13, 2026...Seas will stay below advisory level strength through Tuesday morning. A front will pass through the region Tuesday evening. This will result in widespread precipitation, strong winds, and steep seas starting Tuesday evening. Localized areas of very steep and hazardous seas may be possible north of Coos Bay as the front initially starts to transition over the waters. Steep seas will continue behind the front through Thursday afternoon. A thermal trough may bring gusty northerly winds over the outer waters and south of Cape Blanco on Friday. Another active system may bring additional rainfall and steep seas this weekend. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM Tuesday to 5 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ027. CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Tuesday to 5 PM PDT Thursday for PZZ350-356-370-376. && $$  109 FXUS61 KPBZ 140022 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 822 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Update to Aviation Discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Anomalously warm temperatures this week. Daily record high max and minimum temperatures will be challenged and possibly broken. 2) Increasing daily storm chances this week. Marginal Risk of severe weather on Tuesday north and west of Pittsburgh. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... The upper level pattern will continue to feature the ridge building in the east by Tuesday with the main ridge axis setting up over the Ohio Valley by 00Z Wednesday. The strength of the ridge seems to be as such where precip splits half the forecast from, north to south. This also provides an interesting situation where the southern portion of the forecast area could be breaking records rather than locations such as DUJ. This will mean that record heat will not be all encompassing. It is worth noting that warm lows may still be the case in these areas given the diurnal nature to some of the convection. This is further proven by the latest 13Z NBM showing the probability of surpassing 85 degrees, probs drop off significantly north of Allegheny County. The other sites, such as PIT, ZZV, PHD, and MGW have 60% to 80% of surpassing 85 degrees which would break much of the records in place at least on Wednesday. It would seem, Wed and Thu would be the best days to break records. The Saturday timeframe looks like records could be broken as well but Day 6 offers less confidence at this time. KEY MESSAGE 2... The SPC outlook still continues to highlight the northern half of the forecast area. The Marginal area still continues to highlight the wind potential but the hail potential remains still a plausible threat to remain. This is due to how quick the warm layer sets up just above 850MB. Some Hi-res models keep the warm layer in place but show quite a bit of elevated CAPE. This, with the fact that some model soundings are showing a strong right turn hodograph tomorrow afternoon. In analyzing the NBM for tomorrow, the late afternoon data, (21Z - 23Z), the mean for SB CAPE takes it over 1500 J/Kg, but if we have a weak cap in place, the 90th percentile SB CAPE soars over 2500 J/Kg for Tuesday evening over the northern forecast area. Certainly something to monitor. As well, the CWASP mean is already over 70% but at the chance of overperforming, CWASP soars to over 80%. The only concern for this potential is the timing and several hi-res models have different onset times ranging from noon tomorrow to 6pm tomorrow evening to even a round overnight. This will play into how well the warm layer sets up over the area. The rest of the week will be under the influence of rounds of convection each day. The max coverage and probability will be during the day or afternoon each day with some convection lingering into the overnight. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A cluster of showers and thunderstorms over northwestern Ohio is expected to track east and approach the vicinity of FKL/DUJ between 06Z and 08Z. Ahead of this activity, isolated lake- breeze driven showers may also develop north of BVI. Otherwise, most terminals should remain quiet through the overnight period under a ridge axis. Shower and thunderstorm potential from Tuesday into the late evening will hinge on the progression of a low pressure system over the Great Lakes. If the ridge axis weakens sufficiently, a line of showers and storms could move across Lake Erie into western Pennsylvania. Given this uncertainty, many terminals are maintaining PROB30 for convection. Should the ridge hold, precip would remain isolated or even absent, creating prolong VFR conditions. Outlook... Restrictions from showers and thunderstorms will persist into the weekend, largely dependent on convection activity developing over the Great Lakes and Midwest. && .CLIMATE... See below for record max highs and max lows this week: Tuesday, April 15th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 86F (1883) 64F (1896) Wheeling, WV: 87F (1941) 60F (2014) Morgantown, WV: 86F (2018) 66F (2014) New Philadelphia, OH: 82F (2023) 56F (2006) Zanesville, OH: 87F (1941) 60F (1899) DuBois, PA: 86F (2023) 60F (2014) Wednesday, April 16th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 85F (1883) 61F (1967) Wheeling, WV: 82F (2010) 59F (2002) Morgantown, WV: 86F (1993) 65F (1967) New Philadelphia, OH: 82F (2010) 58F (2023) Zanesville, OH: 85F (1941) 61F (1972) DuBois, PA: 79F (2003) 56F (2002) Thursday, April 17th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 86F (2002) 63F (2017) Wheeling, WV: 86F (1945) 64F (2002) Morgantown, WV: 88F (2002) 64F (2012) New Philadelphia, OH: 85F (2002) 62F (2017) Zanesville, OH: 86F (2002) 65F (1912) DuBois, PA: 82F (2012) 59F (1976) Friday, April 18th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 87F (1896) 63F (1896) Wheeling, WV: 84F (2002) 64F (2002) Morgantown, WV: 89F (1976) 64F (1960) New Philadelphia, OH: 84F (2002) 60F (1982) Zanesville, OH: 88F (1896) 66F (1896) DuBois, PA: 83F (2002) 60F (2002) Saturday, April 19th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 90F (1896) 64F (1896) Wheeling, WV: 85F (2025) 63F (2002) Morgantown, WV: 92F (1976) 64F (2013) New Philadelphia, OH: 86F (1976) 57F (2019) Zanesville, OH: 92F (1896) 66F (1896) DuBois, PA: 87F (1976) 61F (2002) && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Shallenberger AVIATION...Hefferan  069 FXUS65 KBOU 140023 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 623 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Critical fire weather conditions again today over the southern portions of the forecast area and the plains near the Wyoming border. Critical fire weather conditions to continue Tuesday, though will be limited to Lincoln County. - Next weather system to bring cooler temperatures and a decent chance of precipitation to the forecast area Tuesday into early Wednesday. A few inches of snow for the higher mountains with slick travel possible over the higher passes mainly Tuesday night. - Another storm system is possible for the forecast area Thursday night into Saturday. - Elevated to critical fire weather conditions possible each afternoon through the week. && .DISCUSSION /Through Monday/... Issued at 101 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Current water vapor imagery shows our next weather system is slowly progressing eastward into the Great Basin this afternoon in the form of an upper-level trough. Meanwhile, above normal temperatures and dry conditions are in place across the forecast area, with breezy surface winds bringing elevated to critical fire weather conditions across much of the forecast area. Today's Red Flag Warning will remain in place through 8 PM this evening for areas along our northern and southern boundaries where relative humidity values ranging from the single digits to low teens are expected to coincide with southwest gusts around 30 mph through the early evening. Outside of the fire weather concerns, things are pretty nice across the forecast area, with afternoon temps expected to warm into the upper 60s to 70s across the plains, and 50s for the mountain valleys. Expect clouds to increase through the night tonight as increasing southwesterly flow is expected to bring Pacific moisture into the region. We could start to see some light rain showers over the higher elevations this afternoon, but chances for snow showers will increase late tonight as deeper moisture moves into the mountains and temperatures drop. The greatest QG lift still looks to be tomorrow afternoon and evening as the trough crosses over the forecast area and a cold front slides across the area. During this time, snowfall rates up to an inch an hour will be possible across the northern mountains that could bring some slick travel conditions, mainly across the high mountain passes where surface temperatures will be coldest. Looking like storm totals between 3 to 9 inches will be possible, mainly for elevations above 9,500 feet, with the northern mountains favored to see the higher amounts. Though elevations as low as 7,500 feet may end up with a few flakes when all is said and done. Across the lower elevations, scattered to numerous rain showers are expected, with even a few thunderstorms possible. The best precipitation chances are expected for the northern plains where the latest NBM shows a 50% chance of greater than .2" of precipitation possible from roughly Fort Morgan northward, dropping to 20-30% for probabilities of QPF over .4" for the same area. Much lighter QPF is expected for areas from roughly Adams County southward, where only a few hundredths are forecast. With the drier conditions expected over Lincoln County, the southern half has been put under a Red Flag Warning for Tuesday where gusty southwesterly winds to 40 mph coinciding with relative humidity values as low as 12% is expected between 11 AM and 8 PM. Showers are expected to diminish from west to east across the plains through Wednesday morning, giving way to warmer temps and dry conditions for Wednesday afternoon under brief upper-level ridging. Temperatures will warm back up for Wednesday afternoon, with 60s and 70s forecast across the plains and 40s and 50s for the mountain valleys. By Thursday, southwesterly flow is expected to return and increase ahead of our next more potent weather system that will drop out of the Pacific Northwest through the day. Winds are expected to increase that will likely lead to elevated to critical fire weather conditions over much of the lower elevations Tuesday afternoon. Much cooler temperatures and another round of mountain snow is expected with this system, and ensembles are currently indicating the potential for even some light snowfall accumulations possible for our lower elevations on Friday. Details still need to be ironed out for specific track and strength of this system, but the latest NBM shows between a 40% to 80% chance for at least .1" of snowfall for our lower elevations on Friday evening (higher chances along the Wyoming border, lower chances southward), as a cold front cools temperatures down to below freezing. Beyond Friday, Saturday looks to remain cooler across the forecast area behind Friday's cold front, with afternoon highs remaining below normal for a change. Beyond this, looks like upper-level ridging will begin to build over the western CONUS and we will return to warmer and drier conditions across the forecast area. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday/... Issued at 621 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Recent observations show that the circulation that was centered southeast of KDEN this afternoon has started to decay and shift east. Winds this evening are expected to stay NW-N before a northeasterly surge arrives at KDEN and KBJC around 04Z-05Z. Wind direction late tonight into tomorrow morning remains a bit uncertain, likely starting out with a NE-E direction before shifting around to northwest by early afternoon. An increase in moisture at the mid levels will bring a chance for a few showers to roll off the foothills and into the plains Tuesday afternoon. Periods of 30-35KT wind gusts will be possible with any downbursts that develop. Winds will then gradually weaken and transition to more of a southwesterly drainage pattern late Tuesday evening. Low ceilings are not a concern through the forecast period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 101 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Above normal temperatures and dry conditions are in place across the forecast area this afternoon, with breezy surface winds bringing elevated to critical fire weather conditions across much of the forecast area. Today's Red Flag Warning will remain in place through 8 PM this evening for areas along our northern and southern boundaries where relative humidity values ranging from the single digits to low teens are expected to coincide with southwest gusts around 30 mph through the early evening. While areas within the RFW are expected to have the most critical fire weather conditions, there will be patchy critical fire weather conditions at times outside of the warned areas. A weather system is expected to move across Colorado on Tuesday that will bring snow to the mountains and scattered to numerous showers to the lower elevations, with a few thunderstorms possible. A cold front is expected to slide across the forecast area, though with its timing expected not to reach the southern extent of the forecast area until the evening, critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop over southern Lincoln County by late morning with wind gusts between 35 to 40 mph and RH as low as 12% expected. Therefore, a Red Flag Warning has been issued from 11 AM to 8 PM for this area. While a brief reprieve from critical fire weather conditions is expected on Wednesday (dependent on how much precip we see Tuesday), things are expected to be warm, dry, and breezy again on Thursday that will likely lead to widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions developing across much of the lower elevations. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ214-216-238- 241-242-246-247. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Tuesday for COZ247. && $$ DISCUSSION...9 AVIATION...AA FIRE WEATHER...9  878 FXUS61 KPHI 140030 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 830 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Small Craft Advisory taken down for Delaware Bay. Minor updates to Near term forecast. Aviation discussion updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Potentially record breaking warmth is possible this week with very warm and above normal temperatures continuing through the upcoming weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Potentially record breaking warmth is possible this week with very warm and above normal temperatures continuing through the upcoming weekend. A significant warm up is expected to continue through the week and into the upcoming weekend with the potential for record breaking temperatures. With high pressure situated over the Atlantic Ocean and the warm front well north of the Mid-Atlantic region, continued warmth is expected. Very warm air aloft coupled with warm air at surface levels will allow temperatures to be as much as 15 to 30 degrees above average this week. As of now, forecast highs are in the low to mid 80s on Tuesday with mid/upper 80s to low 90s on both Wednesday and Thursday, though Thursday may be a touch cooler due to more cloud cover. See Climate Section below regarding potential record breaking temperatures. If temperatures touch 90F, it would be the first 90 degree day of the year and first since early September. As is typical in spring though, temperatures along and near the coast will be significantly cooler due to the colder sea surface temperatures and diurnal sea breeze. While a weak surface front passes through late Thursday night into Friday morning, temperatures will stay well above normal through the weekend with temps mainly in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Not only will it be very warm over the course of the week, but it will also remain mainly dry. This is of elevated concern for ongoing drought/abnormally dry conditions over much of the area, which will likely only get worse after this week. A few weak disturbances will pass by to the north through Thursday, but other than a stray shower or thunderstorm each afternoon north of the I-78 corridor, no significant rainfall is expected. Flow will generally be out of the southwest, which is more favorable in terms of moisture, which likely will hinder the fire weather concerns this week. Winds will generally be light as well, as another limiting factor. So, even though it will be warm and dry, fire weather concerns are minimal. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Tonight...Primarily VFR. Southwest winds around 5-10 kts decreasing to around 5 knots or less late in the overnight hours. A few showers KRDG/KABE thru midnight with VCSH in the TAFs. Medium/High confidence. Tuesday...Prevailing VFR. Southwesterly winds around 10 kts with gusts of 15-20 kts in the afternoon. High confidence. Outlook... Tuesday night...VFR. No significant weather expected. Wednesday through Thursday night...Prevailing VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms (~20-40%) in the afternoon and evening hours each day for the Lehigh Valley and I-95 terminals. Friday through Saturday...VFR. A few showers possible, otherwise no significant weather. && .MARINE... Small Craft Advisory continues for the Ocean zones until 1AM Tuesday. Southwest wind gusts of 25-30 kts will persist through late afternoon and early evening hours. Seas of 4-6 feet will gradually diminish tonight, falling below 5 feet after midnight. Sub-SCA conditions expected for Tuesday. Southwest winds will gust to around 15-20 kts in the afternoon with seas around 2-4 feet. Outlook... Tuesday night through Saturday...No marine headlines expected. Winds will generally remain below 20 kt with seas around 2-4 feet. A few showers possible, otherwise fair weather. && .CLIMATE... Warm temperatures well above normal are expected for the upcoming week. Wednesday is currently projected to be the warmest day, though Tuesday through Thursday could see some records broken depending on the site. Below are record highs and record high minimum temperatures for April 14th through April 16th. Record High Temperatures April 14 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 88/2023 AC Airport (ACY) 86/1945 AC Marina (55N) 90/1941 Georgetown (GED) 87/1977 Mount Pocono (MPO) 84/2023 Philadelphia (PHL) 91/1941 Reading (RDG) 90/1941 Trenton (TTN) 89/1941 Wilmington (ILG) 87/1941 Record Warmest Low Temperatures April 14 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 61/2014 AC Airport (ACY) 63/2023 AC Marina (55N) 60/2023 Georgetown (GED) 65/2019 Mount Pocono (MPO) 56/2014 Philadelphia (PHL) 62/2014 Reading (RDG) 64/2014 Trenton (TTN) 62/2014 Wilmington (ILG) 60/2014 Record High Temperatures April 15 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 86/1941 & 1994 AC Airport (ACY) 90/1967 AC Marina (55N) 86/1941 Georgetown (GED) 86/1960 & 2024 Mount Pocono (MPO) 82/1941 Philadelphia (PHL) 88/1941 Reading (RDG) 86/1941 & 1994 Trenton (TTN) 87/1994 Wilmington (ILG) 86/1896 Record Warmest Low Temperatures April 15 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 59/2002 AC Airport (ACY) 61/2002 AC Marina (55N) 59/2006 Georgetown (GED) 65/2002 Mount Pocono (MPO) 58/2002 Philadelphia (PHL) 64/2002 Reading (RDG) 64/1938 Trenton (TTN) 63/2002 Wilmington (ILG) 62/2002 Record High Temperatures April 16 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 90/2012 AC Airport (ACY) 89/2002 AC Marina (55N) 88/2002 Georgetown (GED) 89/2002 Mount Pocono (MPO) 85/2002 Philadelphia (PHL) 90/2002 Reading (RDG) 90/2012 Trenton (TTN) 91/2012 Wilmington (ILG) 92/1896 Record Warmest Low Temperatures April 16 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 60/1941 AC Airport (ACY) 62/2002 AC Marina (55N) 64/2002 Georgetown (GED) 65/2012 Mount Pocono (MPO) 56/2002 Philadelphia (PHL) 62/2002 Reading (RDG) 65/1941 Trenton (TTN) 62/2002 Wilmington (ILG) 63/2002 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ450>455. && $$ DISCUSSION...DeSilva/MJL/po AVIATION...DeSilva/MJL/po MARINE...DeSilva/MJL/po  605 FXAK68 PAFC 140031 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 431 PM AKDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Thursday)... Generally seasonable weather is expected to continue for Southcentral Alaska over the next few days with a chance or two of precipitation. GOES water vapor imagery shows a large upper-level low currently sliding every so slightly east across the Gulf of Alaska, with northerly and easterly flow aloft across much of the area. Shortwave energy rounding this low will continue to yield mostly light snow across the Copper River Basin for the remainder of today, while areas west, including Anchorage, the Kenai Peninsula, and Mat-Su Valley, will gradually see cloud cover and any lingering precip diminish. Lingering snow in the Copper River Basin will dissipate tonight as shortwave ridging builds in the wake of the departing low. Ridging out of the North Pacific will then amplify and build across the Gulf into Southcentral Alaska on Tuesday, leading to a generally pleasant April day for most of the area. By Wednesday, a series of shortwave troughs amid southwest flow aloft will begin moving atop the ridge and into Southcentral AK. The first front and associated precipitation reaches Kodiak Island Tuesday night before then spreading across the Kenai Peninsula and the rest of the area during the day on Wednesday. Lingering cold air will keep most precipitation as snow with any elevation, but lower elevations (generally <1000ft) will likely experience a mix of rain/snow or even all rain as near-surface and low-level temperatures warm up with April insolation. Precipitation looks to diminish Wednesday night as ridging builds in wake of this system, but another front, tied a more potent low in the eastern Bering, shifts into Southcentral again on Thursday and Thursday night. There remains some timing differences with various model runs, but Kodiak Island looks to get the next wave of precip sometime Thursday morning before the rest of Southcentral gets it later into the day and into the overnight period. Snow levels will be similar to the previous day's system, though perhaps a few hundred feet higher initially due to the timing. Locations at elevation should remain most/all snow with this next wave. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Thursday morning)... A weakening low moving over the Kamchatka Peninsula is sending a frontal system across much of the western and central Bering Sea today. Steady rain and gusty south winds are affecting much of the Aleutian Chain. The front is currently arriving in St. Paul where things still look on track for gusty southeasterly winds and a short period of snow before warming temperatures transition precipitation to rain late this evening. There could still be a some blowing snow and reduced visibility before temperatures rise above freezing, but it will be very short-lived. The front will continue into the AKPen and Southwest on Tuesday as it begins to weaken and occlude, spreading mainly snow across the region from west to east through Tuesday night. Some occasional mixing with rain is possible during the afternoon on Tuesday, especially along the coast. Any accumulation will be light, generally 1 to 3 inches or less through Wednesday morning. In the wake of the weakening front, a series of shortwave troughs will move into the Bering Sea as a more progressive, showery pattern takes hold towards midweek. Clusters of rain and snow showers will move across much of the greater Bering Sea region late Tuesday through Thursday, especially near a more potent shortwave trough skirting along the Aleutian Chain for Wednesday and moving into the N AKPen and Bristol Bay Thursday. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through Sunday)... An active pattern continues for mid-April with multiple systems bringing precipitation and cloud cover to the region. Broad upper- level troughing across the western Bering and coastal mainland will be in place to begin the period, placing the Aleutians and much of Southern Alaska in active quasi- southwest flow with embedded shortwaves. Kicking off the period on Thursday, precipitation will overspread much of Southcentral AK amid southwest flow. On Friday afternoon, the front of a strong North Pacific low lifts across the Bering Sea, bringing mostly rain to the Aleutian Islands and widespread gales to the southern Bering. As the center of the system crosses into the Bering, winds weaken before reaching the mainland, and precipitation evolves into a rain/snow mix to all snow for the Alaska Peninsula and Southwest Coast by Sunday afternoon. While uncertainty remains high concerning details beyond Friday, the upper- level low will remain in place across mainland Alaska, and unsettled weather will continue for Southwest and Southcentral through the start of next week. Temperatures will generally be near average. && .AVIATION... PANC...VFR conditions and light SW to NW winds are expected to prevail through the period. Scattered mid to higher level clouds will gradually dissipate tonight with generally clear conditions expected by Tuesday morning. && $$  922 FXAK67 PAJK 140033 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 433 PM AKDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .SYNOPSIS... - Tuesday is expected to see a clearing from north to south, with increased chances of sun and warmer temperatures. - Showers return late on Wednesday and into Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... A broad area of low pressure in the Gulf is bringing with it rain and snow showers across SE AK, driven by continuing onshore flow and conditional instability. 850 mb temperatures are between -6C and -8C, and 1000 to 850 mb thickness values of 1285-1290 decameters would normally indicate the potential for accumulating snow under these conditions. However, diurnal heating has proven sufficient to hold most of the accumulations at bay, with the bulk of the snow melting almost as quickly as it can falls in areas under heavier bands of showers. Overnight, the low will begin to traverse SE and showers will diminish across the northern half of the area. This will set the stage for fog development for areas north of Sitka. Showers continuing across the southern panhandle could drop minor snow accumulations of less than an inch during the same timeframe as diurnal heating subsides. Tuesday will see showers dwindle across the remainder of the area and drier weather take hold. Some locations will likely climb into the 50s. Tuesday night will see returning chances of fog, this time reaching further into the southern panhandle, but drier weather will continue through most of Wednesday until a shortwave manages to race over the axis of the ridge and into SE AK Wednesday night. .LONG TERM...The low impacting the southern panhandle Tuesday will continue to dip south into Wednesday, allowing for skies over the rest of the panhandle to clear out. A broad upper level ridge develops, with the associated surface level ridging positioned to continue onshore flow into the panhandle. Mid level moisture looks to move into the northern panhandle with a shortwave trough on Wednesday night, allowing for light snow in Yakutat and parts of the far northern panhandle Thursday morning. Snow is not really expected to stick for these locations as temperatures remain around freezing, though higher elevation areas and the Klondike and Haines Highways may see up to an inch. This precipitation will be a mix or all rain for the rest of the northern and central panhandle Wednesday, moving into parts of the southern panhandle through Wednesday night into Thursday. Showers are expected to continue until Thursday night, when a more organized front moves into the panhandle from northwest to southeast. This will bring widespread precipitation to the panhandle Friday into Saturday, though QPF remains on the lower side. Again, Yakutat and the northern highways may see snow with this front, though daytime temperatures should only allow for minimal, if any, accumulation. Precipitation is expected to taper down through Saturday, though it may not completely stop until Sunday. The only real wind issue is expected near the typical hot spots from Thursday into Friday as the front moves inland, with Lynn Canal, southern Stephens Passage near Five Finger Lighthouse, and around Point Couverden potentially seeing small craft advisories through this period. && .AVIATION.../Until 00z Wednesday/... Varied flight conditions continue through Monday as rain/snow showers filter through the panhandle. Throught the afternoon, showers of rain and snow mix will continue to drop conditions to MVFR/IFR with CIGs around 1500 ft as they move through. In between showers, conditions will jump back up to VFR with broken CIGs and blue skies peaking through. As we move into the evening and tonight hours, skies in the northern panhandle will begin to clear, raising ceilings, and bringing potential for fog at PAYA, PAJN, and PAGS from 12z to 18z. There is still a chance for showers overnight at PAHN and PAGY and winds will continue to be sustained from around 5-10kts with a northerly component. The pressure gradient is expected to begin to tighten up in the early morning hours clearing out the fog in some of the northern sites. As the TAF period closes, showers should be tapering off with clearing skies spreading south as the low continues to dip southward. Specifically, for the TAFs in the southern half of the Panhandle, from PASI & southeastward, as the low pushes past the area this afternoon through early Wednesday morning, bringing rain & snow showers, flight conditions will be periodically lowered into the MVFR/IFR category range. This will improve to VFR early to mid-morning as the low pushes past & ridging builds-in & skies begin to clear. Around PAKT, it will be breezy out of the southeast through the evening hours. && .MARINE... Outer Coastal Waters: As a low treks off to the south, winds will turn out of the NW through Monday night. Anticipate winds will strengthen to fresh to strong breezes across the outer coastal waters, with the strongest winds south of Kruzof Island. Waveheights of 5 to 7 ft are expected for areas north of Kruzof, while waveheights of 6 to 9 ft are expected for areas south. Through Wednesday, winds will shift out of the W before becoming SW on Thursday. SW swell with wave periods of 7 to 10 seconds. Inner Channels: Winds in the inner channels remain out of the south through the evening hours on Monday, with fresh to strong breezes, especially for Lynn Canal and Stephen's Passage. As a low tracks south through the night, winds weaken and eventually flip out of the North. Winds will strengthen again to fresh breeze - although this time out of the north - through the day on Tuesday. Winds will flip back out of the S on Thursday as the pressure gradient once more flips. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-031-033-641>644-661>664-671. && $$ SHORT TERM...GFS LONG TERM...ZTK AVIATION...AGP/JLC MARINE...GFS Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau  580 FXUS65 KBOI 140036 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 636 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread valley rain and mountain snow above 4500 feet on Monday. - Snow levels will drop to near valley floors Thursday morning with cold frontal passage for widespread lower elevation snow likely. - Near to Below freezing morning temperatures likely Thursday through Saturday across the entire area. && .SHORT TERM /Through Wednesday Night/... Issued 203 PM MDT MON APR 13 2026 The active pattern remains in place across southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho. Rain and snow showers continue through the remainder of the afternoon, tapering by mid evening. Significant snow has fallen above 6000 feet today with reports of 14 to 18 inches of snowfall. As of 1 PM MDT today, 2.40 inches of rainfall has been recorded for the month of April 2026 at Boise. This currently ranks as the 9th wettest April on record for the Boise area, with 17 days remaining in the month. For tonight and Tuesday, a brief period of weak ridging will move through the region, providing a short lull in the widespread precipitation seen earlier this week. Light winds, clearing skies, and significant surface moisture will promote the development of patchy fog Tuesday morning, especially across the Long Valley and Treasure Valley. The break is short lived as a strong upper level low currently over Alaska begins to dig south along the Pacific coast late Tuesday afternoon and evening. Clouds will increase from the west as moisture begins to advect into the region ahead of the next system. Light rain showers will develop over the mountains of southeast Oregon late Tuesday, spreading into southwest Idaho overnight. The main weather event arrives Wednesday as the cold front approaches. Strong southwesterly flow ahead of the front will result in breezy conditions Wednesday afternoon, with gusts of 25 to 35 mph possible across the higher terrain and open valleys of southeast Oregon. Widespread rain is expected for the valleys through Wednesday evening, with snow levels initially remaining around 5000 to 6000 feet MSL. The cold frontal passage is timed for late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. This front will bring a sharp transition in the weather. Winds will shift to the northwest and remain gusty. More importantly, a much colder air mass will pour into the region, causing snow levels to plummet toward valley floors by sunrise Thursday. While the bulk of the moisture will be moving east, wrap around moisture and unstable northwesterly flow will support a mix of rain and snow for the Treasure and Magic Valleys, with light snow accumulations possible on grassy surfaces and higher valley benches. In the mountains, lower valleys will see a few inches of snow but areas above 5500 feet could see several inches of new snow Thursday morning, which may impact travel over mountain passes. && .LONG TERM /Thursday through Monday/... Issued 203 PM MDT MON APR 13 2026 Following a strong cold front, temperatures on Thursday cool down to 5-10 degrees below normal. Not exceptionally cold climatologically, but following a long warm spell it will feel like a sudden burst of winter for lower elevations. It's enough for most of the Snake Plain to see sub-freezing morning low temperatures. Again, this isn't climatologically exceptional, however, a green up in the past two weeks has seen many plants begin to bloom or sprout. The freezing morning temperatures threaten this new growth, especially for gardens and crops. For those who started their garden early, it may be wise to consider covering up plants or bringing them inside. Personally, I'm going to be using the time to clean up after late winter and early spring bug hatches. Aside from the cold morning temperatures, as snow tapers off Thursday evening high pressure builds and we head into a warming and drying trend. The drying trend allows morning lows to stay near freezing through Saturday, but afternoon high temperatures will climb back up to near normal. Gusty winds up to 35 mph on Thursday weaken each afternoon, to 30 mph Friday, and 20 mph Saturday. Sunday, temps are about 5 degrees above normal. Sunday night and next Monday models show another strong low diving south along the West Coast, and isolating itself from the jet stream. This will mark the onset of another cool and wet period. && .AVIATION /00Z Tuesday through Wednesday/... Issued 628 PM MDT MON APR 13 2026 Scattered showers becoming isolated overnight, creating brief MVFR conditions. Snow levels 5k-6k ft MSL. Mtn obscuration. Fog/low stratus possible in the Snake Plain and mtn valleys early Tue AM. Surface winds: W-N 5-15 kt. Gusts to 20-25 kt in W Magic Valley. Winds becoming variable up to 10 kt overnight. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-NW 15-25 kt. KBOI...Generally VFR. Scattered rain showers ending late tonight. Slight chance (20%) of fog/low stratus Tue AM. Surface winds: NW or variable 4-8 kt. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....SH SHORT TERM...JDS LONG TERM....JM  646 FXUS63 KGRB 140046 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 746 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms will develop late this afternoon and continue into the overnight hours with hail in excess of 2 inches, damaging winds and a tornado possible with the strongest storms. The highest risk is across central Wisconsin. - Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches across parts of central into east-central Wisconsin may lead to additional flood concerns through tonight. - An active stretch of weather continues through late week with continued periods of showers and storms. The risk area for severe storms shifts south on Tuesday, but extends north into parts of central and east-central Wisconsin. - Minor to moderate river flooding is ongoing or forecast to occur on several area rivers. Expect many rivers to rise this week due to additional rain and runoff from Upper Michigan, with the greatest impacts expected on the Menominee River, where some locations may see major flooding during the mid to late part of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Tonight: Severe Storms/Heavy Rain Early afternoon surface analysis indicated a surface low over central Nebraska with a warm front snaking eastward across northern Iowa into central Wisconsin. MLCAPE has increased to around 1000 J/kg across central Wisconsin with some inhibition noted. Late this afternoon, expect more focused storm initiation/intensification generally in the vicinity of the warm front and nose of the low- level jet. Surface-based instability is maximized over central Wisconsin (1000-2000 J/kg) by late this afternoon with effective shear around 40-50 kts. Combined with steep lapse rates already sampled by the 18Z GRB RAOB, the environment will be supportive of large to very large hail. The tornado risk likely will be highest along the warm front from west-central Wisconsin into perhaps central Wisconsin as the low-level jet increases early this evening and overlaps the warm front/instability axis. Damaging wind risk will depend on the degree of upscale growth/organization of storms. Overall, the severe weather risk lessens with northward extent. Precipitable water values remain near the top of climatology for mid April. HREF probability matched mean 24-hr rainfall is in the 1 to 3 inch range across parts of central into east-central Wisconsin through tonight, on the nose of the low-level jet. However, rainfall amounts will depend on the organization and degree of training. This rainfall could exacerbate already saturated soils. Areas of fog may also develop overnight behind the storms. Tuesday: Additional storms The front slides south on Tuesday with the instability axis also displaced south. The placement of the boundary will impact the northward extent of severe weather during the afternoon/evening. RAP hodographs show lesser low-level shear although an elongated profile favorable for large hail and winds. Currently the highest risk of severe storms is across southern Wisconsin, but could extend into parts of east-central Wisconsin. Wednesday-Monday: Active into the weekend Southwest flow aloft persists into late week keeping the area in a warm, wet pattern. Another shortwave trough will bring additional shower (40-80%) chances Wednesday into Thursday. A more dynamic trough is slated to impact the region late Friday into the weekend bringing additional widespread rainfall and storms. The northward extent of greater instability is somewhat uncertain with this system, impacting severe weather potential, but this will be something to watch in the coming days. Drier and cooler weather is expected behind this system for early next week. && .AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance Issued at 746 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Widespread showers and storms will continue to impact AUW/CWA/ATW /GRB/MTW this evening. The strongest storms could contain heavy rain, hail and gusty winds. Some fog will along linger near Lake Michigan. The activity will end west to east from 03-07z. Low clouds and fog will linger overnight, with clouds lifting and scattering out later Tuesday morning and afternoon. Another round of storms is possible at ATW/GRB/MTW Tuesday afternoon. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 245 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Flooding is expected to continue on several area rivers during the week, and will be exacerbated by periodic heavy rainfall. Runoff from Upper Michigan is still expected to bring moderate to major flooding along the Menominee River, especially during the mid to late part of the week. If you live near a river or stream, keep a close eye on water levels this week and monitor the latest Flood Warnings from the National Weather Service in Green Bay. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for WIZ013-018>022-030-031- 035>040-045-048>050-073-074. && $$ DISCUSSION.....JM AVIATION.......Bersch HYDROLOGY......Kieckbusch/JM  796 FXUS61 KLWX 140059 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 859 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes were made to the forecast. Still looking at near-record warmth mid-week, with continued fire weather concerns and worsening drought conditions. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Near-record warm temperatures expected midweek as highs exceed 90 degrees for some. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Near-record warm temperatures expected midweek as highs exceed 90 degrees for some. Surface high pressure remains offshore through midweek with return flow ushering in warm air over the mid-atlantic. Aloft, an upper level ridge moves over the east coast. On Tuesday, high temperatures will be in the 80s for most with only those at higher elevations staying in the 70s. The warmest days of the week will be Wednesday and Thursday, as high temperatures approach record levels. Highs each day will be in the 80s to low 90s with record levels. With the current forecast, the record high will be broken at IAD, DCA, and BWI by 1-2 degrees although highs trended down from yesterday to today. In addition to record highs close to being broken, the record warm low is within a few degrees of the current forecast low temps. Will continue to monitor, but either way, near record warmth is expected this week with a moderate heat risk. Early season heat can be more impactful than mid summer as many are not acclimated to hot temperatures. Temperatures are expected to cool this weekend as a cold front moves across the forecast area. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions continue through midweek with primarily dry conditions expected. An isolated shower cannot be ruled out at KIAD and KMRB Tuesday, although little to no impacts are expected. Gusty winds from late this evening diminish overnight. Winds remain out of the south/southwest Tuesday, with gusts around 15 knots in the afternoon. On Wednesday, southwest winds blow 5 to 10 knots across the terminals with the exception being KMRB and KCHO where gusts near 15 knots are expected. Rain chances on Thursday may lead to deteriorating flight conditions on Thursday, although chances remain low at this time. Southwest winds on Thursday shift to west on Friday, blowing around 10 knots each day. && .MARINE... Winds remain out of the west/southwest through Wednesday as high pressure remains offshore. Gusty winds continue Tuesday, but are expected to remain below SCA criteria. Winds diminish Tuesday night and are expected to remain light over the waters on Wednesday. Gusty southwest winds on Thursday afternoon are expected with SCA conditions possible in the southern portions of the waters. Winds remain below SCA across all waters on Friday. && .FIRE WEATHER... As we continue through the rest of this week expect fire weather conditions to become elevated as temperatures reach the 80s to 90s each day. The warmest conditions will be Wednesday and Thursday, where some areas could reach the mid 90s. Winds are going to be less through the middle of the week, but still looking at gusts around 20 mph each afternoon Tuesday and Wednesday. The lowest RH values are going to be around 30-35 pct each afternoon through Friday, with Thursday likely having the lowest RH values around 20-30 pct. Thursday could be the most fire sensitive day of the week due to increasing southwesterly winds. Another cold front moves across the area Friday. This lessens some of the extreme warmth as highs reach the 80s and there could be some showers in the area. However, given the preceding dry conditions and weak nature of the front, not expecting a wetting rain from this for most areas. && .CLIMATE... Many daily records are likely to be broken this week, for both high temperatures and warm low temperatures. Some stations could tie or set their all-time high temperature and warm low temperature records for the month of April. April 14 LocationRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW Washington-National (DCA)91F (1960) 65F (2014) Washington-Dulles (IAD) 87F (1960) 63F (2014) Baltimore (BWI) 91F (1941) 65F (2018) Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 90F (1960) 67F (2018) Martinsburg (MRB) 87F (1960) 62F (2014) Charlottesville (CHO) 90F (1945) 67F (1899) Annapolis(NAK) 90F (1941) 65F (1977) Hagerstown (HGR) 86F (2024) 64F (2014) April 15 LocationRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW Washington-National (DCA)89F (1941) 65F (2023) Washington-Dulles (IAD) 87F (1967) 62F (2023) Baltimore (BWI) 88F (1941) 65F (1941) Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 92F (2024) 67F (1960) Martinsburg (MRB) 90F (1941) 63F (1967) Charlottesville (CHO) 92F (2024) 68F (1941) Annapolis(NAK) 91F (1941) 68F (1994) Hagerstown (HGR) 85F (1960) 61F (2023) April 16 LocationRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW Washington-National (DCA)92F (2002) 65F (2017) Washington-Dulles (IAD) 91F (2002) 63F (2017) Baltimore (BWI) 90F (2012) 66F (1941) Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 91F (2012) 65F (2012) Martinsburg (MRB) 90F (2002) 63F (2017) Charlottesville (CHO) 92F (1976) 67F (1941) Annapolis(NAK) 89F (2017) 70F (1994) Hagerstown (HGR) 88F (2002) 62F (2002) April 17 LocationRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW Washington-National (DCA) 95F (2002)65F (2002) Washington-Dulles (IAD) 93F (2002)59F (2024) Baltimore (BWI) 93F (2002)66F (1896) Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 95F (2002)66F (1976) Martinsburg (MRB) 93F (2002)60F (1941) Charlottesville (CHO) 94F (1976)65F (1976) Annapolis(NAK) 90F (1976)68F (1994) Hagerstown (HGR) 90F (2002)64F (2002) All-Time April Record Highs: Washington-National (DCA)95F 4/17/2002, 4/18/1976, 4/23/1960 4/27/1915 Washington-Dulles (IAD) 93F 4/6/2010, 4/17/2002, 4/25/1960 Baltimore (BWI) 94F 4/25/1960, 4/23/1960, 4/20/1941, 4/18/1896 Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 98F 4/26/1990, 4/22/1985 Martinsburg (MRB) 96F 4/21/1941 Charlottesville (CHO) 98F 4/24-25/1925 Annapolis(NAK) 95F 4/20/1941 Hagerstown (HGR) 94F 4/6/2010, 4/18/1976, 4/26/1915 All-Time April Record Warm-Lows: Washington-National (DCA)70F 4/29/2017 Washington-Dulles (IAD) 68F 4/27/2011 Baltimore (BWI) 70F 4/19/1896 Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 76F 4/26/1990 Martinsburg (MRB) 69F 4/19/2025 Charlottesville (CHO) 72F 4/26/1915 Annapolis(NAK) 70F 4/28/1994, 4/16/1994, 4/18/1896 Hagerstown (HGR) 69F 4/27/2009 && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AVS/CJL/KRR AVIATION...AVS MARINE...AVS