794 FXUS63 KIWX 140102 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 902 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - The potential for multiple rounds of showers and storms, possibly strong to severe, exist through Thursday. The most likely period appears to be Tuesday night into Thursday, but confidence remains on the lower side with finer details regarding impacts and intensity. - Hydro concerns could increase for mid to late week depending on tracks of successive convective rounds. - Above normal temperatures will continue into this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 238 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Challenging near and short term forecast through Tuesday night and even into Wednesday with a series of mid level and convectively induced disturbances expected to transverse the region. Certainty is highest in plenty of moisture and instability (steep mid-level lapse rates and SBCAPE of 1K to 2K j/kg) around for any of these waves. Certainty drops considerably with regards to timing and impacts of what could be multiple rounds of convection in some areas. As a result, hard to make any larger, wholesale changes to the forecast into Tuesday as we wait to see how things evolve. Will break things down as best as I can. To kick things off, we are closely monitoring a mid level disturbance moving through western IL with an area of showers and storms attempting to slowly expand which may impact west/northwest areas near/after 20Z. CAMS are all over the place on evolution (or lack thereof) of this area or possibly separate development later this afternoon or evening. As noted above parameters favor at least a threat of stg-svr storms with hail and maybe gusty winds becoming a threat with the stronger activity. Will maintain slgt chc to chc pops for now and adjust as needed based on trends. Some solutions also show development closer to 00Z with a west to east band of convection impacting northern areas. This seems less plausible at this point, but cannot be entirely discounted with both a severe and possibly hydro threat occurring. Confidence is high on development of stg-svr storms across portions of MN and WI in a very favorable environment this evening (SWODY1 Enhanced Risk outlines this). Much like the near term period, CAMs differ considerably on how this area evolves with some solutions tracking the activity due east and others suggesting a SE propagation towards us late tonight into early Tuesday with potential stg-svr storms and possibly some hydro issues (although this should be rather progressive). Again, limited changes to pops for the time being. Overnight convection will play somewhat of a factor wrt the threat for severe storms Tue afternoon-early Wed. Isolated storms could develop during the afternoon and early evening hours on any lingering boundaries, but the greatest focus will start to our west across eastern IA/N IL/S WI during the afternoon hours and then possibly expanding east and continuing to organize. Again, CAM solutions on the evolution of this into our area are all over the place, but signals are strongest for at least some convection Tuesday night into early Wednesday with both a severe and hydro threat quite possible. The new SPCDY2 outlook remains unchanged with the eastern edge of an enhanced risk to our immediate W and N, with the area in a slight risk for mainly a hail and wind threat. Not going to even try to make many updates at this point. The active weather continues Wednesday into Thursday as a somewhat stronger trough pushes into the area, with models somewhat in agreement on more widespread showers and storms with maybe more of a hydro vs severe threat. The area is presently in a Marginal Risk of Severe and Excessive Rainfall Risk. With all the challenges, not even going to try to make changes that far out. In the wake of the trough, one more push of warm air commences with highs Friday well into the 70s and maybe some 80s. Shower/storm chances will increase late Friday night into Saturday ahead of an even stronger trough that will eventually send temps back closer to, if not normal Sunday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 820 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A weak front was over northern Indiana at the start of the TAF period. Showers and scattered thunderstorms were developing mainly north of the front from northeast IL into northwest OH. The front will continue to be a focus for this activity through the TAF period with additional activity developing throughout the period. An upper level trof will inject weaker disturbances in southwest flow and will help keep the potential for showers and storms. Kept conditions VFR for now, although brief MVFR is possible late tonight into early Tuesday. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Fisher AVIATION...Skipper  415 FXUS62 KMHX 140107 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 907 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Dropped SCA for the northern waters and sounds. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Above to well above normal temperatures will prevail through the entire week with the potential for record breaking temperatures Tuesday through Saturday. 2) Worsening drought and fire weather conditions anticipated over much of the upcoming week, with the next meaningful chance of rain not until Sunday && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Persistent ridging aloft combined with a warm, southwest flow pattern and warm to anomalously warm low-level thicknesses is expected to support above to well above normal temperatures for the entire week. Some locations may reach, or exceed, record highs (please see the CLIMATE section below for additional information). Based on the latest guidance, the warmest days are expected to be Wednesday, Thursday, and Saturday. On those days, highs are expected to top out in the 90s inland, and 70s to near 80 along the coast. For reference, mid-April highs typically average out to be in the upper 60s along the coast and mid 70s inland. Based on the latest forecast, inland highs should solidly reach 10-20 degrees above normal. The forecast is currently higher than MOS guidance, as we are operating under the belief that an anomalous event like this (EFI values approaching 1.00 and SoT near 1) isn't properly represented by MOS guidance. The forecast is also currently higher than the deterministic NBM, as the raw NBM MaxTs are running at the 10-25 percentile. Summertime warmth with spring humidity means it won't feel as hot as it could with summertime humidity. Even so, the heat risk is forecast to reach moderate impact levels this week. This means impacts will be most prevalent for those without adequate cooling or hydration. A break in the warmth looks to be on the horizon as a cold front is now forecast to move through the area on Sunday, with cooler air arriving early next week. KEY MESSAGE 2...Worsening drought conditions are likely through the foreseeable future with no rain in the forecast through Saturday. The forecast area remains in a Severe Drought (D2), with some pockets of Extreme Drought (D3) emerging over the northern NC coastal plain. Precipitation deficits over the last 60 days range from 3-6 inches, which will only increase in the upcoming rain-free week. Growing vegetation and leaf out will only increase the strain on ground water in the coming weeks. While the forecast currently has conditions not meeting criteria for fire danger statements, the very dry conditions will continue to bring an elevated threat for wildfires. It is also worth noting that breezy afternoon/evening winds will be paired with relative humidities in the 30-40% range. Again, this is above Fire Danger Statement criteria, but given the increased sensitivities, it is worth a mention. The NCFS continues a statewide burn ban until further notice. Late in the weekend, guidance is showing a strong signal for a cold front passage (Sunday into Monday). This front carries a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Pred VFR expected through the TAF period with high pressure in place. The NBM probs for fog or stratus late tonight into Tuesday morning remain low, around 10 percent or less. However, if the winds do decouple, cannot rule out shallow fog development late tonight, similar to last night. SW winds will prevail with gusts around 15-20 kt late morning and afternoon hours. Outlook: Pred VFR conditions expected through the period with a more summertime pattern persisting through the week. Stronger winds likely in the coming days with tightening thermal gradient, most likely felt in the afternoons and evenings. && .MARINE... Latest obs show SW winds 10-20 kt and seas 2-4 ft. A regime more typical of summer is expected across area waters this week. Within this flow, there will be a diurnal max in winds each afternoon and evening thanks to a strengthening thermal gradient. During this time, occasional gusts to 25kt will be possible, especially for waters near NOBX. A similar scenario is possible each day this week, with brief small craft conditions in the vicinity of NOBX. Seas of 2-5 ft will be common through much of the upcoming week for the ENC coastal waters. Outlook: The southwest flow pattern is expected to last into Saturday. On Sunday, a cold front is forecast to move through with a wind shift and the potential for scattered thunderstorms. && .CLIMATE... Record High temps for 4/14 (Tuesday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 89/1948 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 80/1994 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 93/1922 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 80/1996 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 99/1930 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 88/1977 (NCA ASOS) Record High temps for 4/15 (Wednesday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 94/1972 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 84/1922 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 96/1922 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 80/1964 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 92/1941 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 93/2006 (NCA ASOS) Record High temps for 4/16 (Thursday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 92/1972 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 78/1994 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 92/1972 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 82/2006 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 92/2006 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 91/1972 (NCA ASOS) Record High temps for 4/17 (Friday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 91/1976 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 83/2012 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 92/1972 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 82/1976 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 91/1972 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 91/2006 (NCA ASOS) && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 7 AM EDT Tuesday through Tuesday evening for NCZ196-204-205. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RM/RJ AVIATION...CQD/SK MARINE...RM/CQD/RJ  846 FXUS61 KCTP 140108 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 908 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Increased rain chances and thunder probs especially along US-322/I-80 corridor based on latest radar trends and hires model/ensemble guidance && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Bullish signal for rounds of showers and t-storms near the US-322/I-80 corridor into late tonight 2) Another impressive warm up begins today and continues through the week; near- record warmth on tap for Wednesday and Thursday. 3) Several periods of showers and thunderstorms expected during the upcoming week, with the greatest amount of rainfall likely occurring across northern and western PA. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Bullish signal for rounds of showers and t-storms near US-322/I-80 corridor into late tonight Bullish signal via newest CAMS is confirmed by ongoing radar trends showing a notable uptick on showers and storms tracking WNW-ESE near US-322/I-80 corridor along what appears to be a diffuse llvl convergence or outflow boundary. Despite sunset/time of day, temps remain quite mild for this time of year and storm intensities have been neutral to positive (stronger) on the margin with even some small scale bowing type features/structures. Odds continue to favor sub severe storms capable of locally strong max wind gusts ~40kt. ---------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 2: Warm up begins today and continues through the week; near-record warmth on tap for Wednesday and Thursday. LLVL warm advection kicks in today with a moderately gusty southerly flow ushering in a prolonged period of much warmer than normal temperatures through the upcoming week. On the large-scale, our ensemble prediction systems are in good agreement showing a mean upper-level trough across the western CONUS, with downstream upper ridging taking hold from the Gulf states up the eastern seaboard. This will bring a notable warming trend, with daily highs ranging from the 70s-mid 80s across central PA from Tuesday onward. The latest forecast brings near-record temperatures across the region Wednesday morning through Friday morning, with lows both Wednesday and Thursday morning forecast to be warmer than our average highs this time of year (or an incredible 25 to 30 deg F above normal). Highs in the 70s and 80s will accompany lows in the 50s and 60s. Dewpoints will start to approach the 60F mark, so it will feel a bit humid but not overly uncomfortable. ---------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 3: Several periods of showers and thunderstorms expected during the upcoming week, especially in the north and west. In general for the workweek ahead, the storm track will run from SW to NE across the Great Lakes, with several waves of low pressure drifting into Ontario, CA. A frontal boundary will set up generally west to east across New York and keep unsettled weather in place across northwest PA in particular. LLJ will lift across far northern PA western NY this morning, keeping the main focus for any significant convection generally north/west of the region today. For Tuesday, SPC has expanded the MRGL Risk for SVR TSRA over much of the Northern Half of PA for the afternoon and evening as a 35 to 40 kt WSW LLVL wind max advects across that part of the state during peak heating with broad upper level diffluence noted in the westerly flow AOA 500 mb on the southerly flank of an upper level jet max. If you have outdoor plans this week, continue to monitor the forecast - no need to cancel anything yet! The probability for showers/storms will be highest in northwest PA. Locations that have been wet lately will continue to see more rain, while drought- stricken locations across the southeast part of our CWA will see less rainfall. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Isolated showers and storms for a few more hours early this evening, mainly near BFD and IPT. Overall most of the area will be dry with VFR conditions into Tuesday. BFD will have the main chance for MVFR and even IFR conditions later tonight into Tuesday morning. For showers on Tuesday, just have them in for BFD and JST. BFD the most likely spot to have one. Most of the area will be south of the warm front, thus not seeing much of a signal for showers and storms prior to 00Z Wed. Most of the week we will be in the warm sector, and not a real high chance for showers or storms. The next strong cold front will be later in the weekend. Outlook... Wed-Thu...VFR most of the time, but brief restrictions possible in hit and miss showers and thunderstorms, mainly across the north and west. Fri...Restrictions possible early, then improving to VFR in the afternoon. Sat...Restrictions in SHRA early, drier conditions late. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl/Banghoff DISCUSSION...Steinbugl/Banghoff AVIATION...Martin/Beaty  689 FXUS63 KMKX 140109 AAA AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 809 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe storms are still expected late this evening into tonight. All severe hazards possible as well as flash flooding. - Heavy rain this evening and tonight with the storms resulting in localized higher rainfall exceeding 1-3 inches. Thus a Flood Watch is in effect for counties north of I-94 tonight. Also expected rises on area rivers and cresting above flooding stage with the additional rainfall. - Additional windows for heavy rainfall, flooding, and thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday and again later this week. && .UPDATE... Issued 809 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Tonight: Well organized 925-700 mb warm, moist advection and frontogenesis is supporting severe convection from north central IA and srn MN ewd across central WI. The sly 925-850 mb jet of 40-50 kt will actually increase MLCAPE to 1500-2000 J/KG across all of srn WI this evening ahead of the sfc low that will track from wrn IA to ne IA and se MN by 06Z. CAMs suggest the developing MCS north of La Crosse will move esewd across central WI, while another MCS will form across se MN into sw WI. The 2nd MCS will then track to the right of the mean wind (esewd around 35-40 kt) across much of srn WI. 0-3km shear is 250 degrees around 40 kts and oriented mostly parallel to the expected MCS, but any short north to south line segments would have the potential for QLCS tornadoes. Overall though the main threat is damaging winds. 05-06Z is a good estimate from Fond du Lac to Madison then 07-08Z into the MKE metro area. Gehring && .SHORT TERM... Issued 234 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Tonight through Wednesday: Continue to see a very active spring pattern today through Wednesday across southern WI. Strong to severe thunderstorm environment will set up across the area each day varying in location and strength. Will also see heavy rainfall associated with this activity and widespread 1-3 inches possible through the middle of the week, but localized higher rainfall greater than forecast will be possible contributing to flooding impacts. First opportunity for severe and flooding potential will be later today/tonight. Will be another window on Tuesday, which has the better potential for more widespread severe activity over the CWA. Then another window will occur on Wednesday, but will be a bit more uncertain as it depends on what happen today and tomorrow. Rest of this Afternoon: MCV has stayed south more into IL and produced a couple perky thunderstorms. However, the cap is holding across southern WI this afternoon and anything that is trying grow upscale is not making it at this time. Will continue to monitor, but the better chances for development will be later this evening. This Evening into Tonight: Environment still looking primed for convection across central WI with a warm front strewn across the central part of the state as a surface low over NE lifts eastward. In the warm sector south of the main boundary over southern WI seeing SBCAPE exceeding 1000 J/kg and looking to increase toward 1500 J/kg or more through the remainder of afternoon. Paired steep lapse rates around 7-8C/km, dewpoints already in the 60s, and deep layer shear +45kt all will support development through the evening. The bulk of the severe and flooding activity is looking to develop early this evening through tonight generally along and around the warm front boundary toward the northern half of the CWA (generally north of I-94) as the nose of 40-55kt LLJ noses into WI. Still looking to see a few discrete development along the warm front back in west central WI early this evening where the instability and deep layer shear align with the LLJ. All severe hazards will be possible for discrete development south of the warm front and cannot rule a tornado or two as 0-1km SRH increased to around 200 m2/s2. Might see a few discrete sneak into our northwest, but majority of it looks to remain just outside our CWA. However given the easterly flow parallel to the frontal boundary expect to see this activity gradually merge and cluster more into a linear structure through the evening. This will transition the severe threat more toward wind and flooding. The 12z CAMs continue to trend toward a more southern shift in this activity and looking to impact our northern tier of counties through tonight. While damaging winds will be the primary severe threat, the convection training over the same area and producing locally higher amounts exceeding 1-3 inches over saturated soils may leading to localized flash flooding as well as rises on area rivers. Thus have issued a Flood Watch for the areas with the greatest concerns tonight. Expect this cluster to works its way along the boundary overnight with a bulk of the models having it move off and weaken after midnight through early Tuesday morning. Tuesday- Tuesday Night: Another window for severe weather expected for Tuesday. Overall looks to be a bit better set up for southern WI as the front from today's activity is progged to be draped across our area. The main question will be where will the boundary set up as depending which side of the boundary you are on will dictate the severe impacts. We are beginning to see a trend with the frontal boundary bisecting our CWA on the global models as well as on the 12z HREF. If this continues, looking at the better severe potential to be favored toward the southern portion of the CWA. Wherever the front sets up, expect areas along and north of the warm front to be more susceptible to large hail threat as instability will be more elevated north of the surface boundary. Looking at MUCAPE between 1000-2000 J/kg along and north of the boundary paired with the +40kt deep layer shear. While areas along and south of the boundary will be capable of producing more damaging winds and cannot rule out even a few tornadoes in addition to hail. More favorable surface based instability with +1500 J/kg of SBCAPE aligning with the deep layer shear in the warm sector. CAMs also are pinging on increasing low-level SRH exceeding 150-200 m2/s2 supportive of a tornado or two. Storm mode evolution also looks similar to toady as well with convective initiation being more discrete/isolated convection which will be more supportive of supercells and tornado, but CAMs prog this activity to cluster and merge through the evening and thus transitioning to more of a damaging wind and embedded tornado threat. Lastly given saturate grounds and previous days rainfall any heavier rainfall moving over the same area will be susceptible to flash flooding as well as rises on area river above flood stage. Again there will be limited upper-level synoptic forcing for Tuesday activity and mainly be driving by low-level WAA, LLJ, warm frontal boundary, as well as localized mesoscale lift from upstream MCV or remnant outflow from today's convection. So will continue to monitor the hi-ress models guidance through this evening to have a better picture of where things set up. Wednesday: The active spring pattern continues for Wednesday as well. Again still need to see how things pan out Tuesday for exact locations of this activity. However, seeing more upper-level support with the Wednesday round as an upper-level shortwave trough digs across the Plains and lifts over the region. While more favorable upper-level synoptic forcing will be present, the overall surface low track continues to trend over southern WI. This will set up the a frontal boundary more across southern portions of the area, but could see additional shifts. Nevertheless there will be another opportunity for heavy rainfall and severe potential along this system. Will continue to monitor and see if current trends hold or if things shift. Wagner && .LONG TERM... Issued 234 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Thursday through Monday: Finally get a bit of a break in this active pattern on Thursday as an upper-level ridge builds into the region. However, this looks to be short lived as an upper-level trough begins to deepen across the northern Plains and gradually lift into the upper Midwest later Friday into Saturday. The associated surface low looks to track up the Upper Mississippi River Valley during this time which will place southern WI in the warm sector. Again looking at environment that will support increased shower and thunderstorm activity. Given the current pattern and track, will need to keep an eye on strong to severe potential for our western portions of the CWA, but the latest trends in the models has this system a bit slower, thus the better environment looks to be further west. Will continue to monitor and see if this trend continues for this late week system. Behind this late week system, the pattern looks to settle down as the trough pushes into the eastern CONUS while an upper-level ridge looks to build Sunday through the start of next week. Expect mainly drier and mild conditions at this time through this period. Wagner && .AVIATION... Issued 809 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A line of thunderstorms, potentially severe at times, is expected to drop southeast through southern Wisconsin from roughly 05Z to 09Z tonight. Low level wind shear is likely this evening into tonight ahead of the thunderstorms. Lower ceilings (1500 to 3000 ft) and visibilities (2-5 miles) are anticipated as the line of storms move through. A few storms may linger towards daybreak early tomorrow, with dry weather likely through the morning hours. Low clouds may take a good chunk of the morning to improve to VFR. Generally south to southwest winds are expected tomorrow, though a few models do show winds may turn onshore tomorrow near the lake by late morning. Another round of thunderstorms is expected tomorrow by late afternoon or early evening, with the potential for severe storms once again. DDV && .MARINE... Issued 234 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 An active heavy rainfall and thunderstorm pattern is expected across the region this afternoon through Wednesday. Will see frontal boundaries stall across the lake at various location each day with increase thunderstorm activity focused along and around it as well. Overall winds are looking fairly light and may contribute to periods of fog over the open waters. Winds will vary depending on where the fronts set up. Portions of the lake south of the boundaries will see predominantly southerly winds, while more easterly winds are expected north of the boundary. Will see a break in shower and thunderstorm activity for Thursday, but active pattern returns for the end of the week into Saturday. Wagner && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Flood Watch...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-WIZ057-WIZ058- WIZ059-WIZ060 until 7 AM Tuesday. LM...Dense Fog Advisory...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565- LMZ567-LMZ868 until 7 AM Tuesday. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee  662 FXHW60 PHFO 140136 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 336 PM HST Mon Apr 13 2026 .SYNOPSIS... A line of light to moderate showers across the central portion of the state is expected to lift north and dissipate this evening. Light and variable winds will favor some onshore sea breezes through midweek. By the latter half of the weak, light east to southeast winds and quieter weather return to the forecast. This weekend may see a boost in showers as an upper level disturbance approaches from the northwest. && .DISCUSSION... A band of mostly light showers has shifted slightly east over the central islands this afternoon, contrary to what most of the hi- res model guidance was showing this morning, which showed the line shifting westward. Most of the rainfall has been focused over Oahu and Maui County, with a few hundredths of an inch recorded at most locations since this morning. For what it's worth (and it may not be much based on what was already mentioned), hi-res model guidance suggests that shower activity will diminish later this afternoon as the current line lifts north and falls apart, then additional light to moderate showers may reorganize along another weakly convergent boundary near Kauai overnight and persist in the vicinity through at least Tuesday. For the latter part of the week, trades will try to return, but may have a hard time doing so as a nearly stationary surface trough forms and persists northwest of the state, making it hard for the high pressure to the northeast to take over the local winds. Overall, winds are expected to be light east to southeasterly. With light winds prevailing, and if diurnal heating is strong enough, land and sea breeze activity may bring interior showers during the day and partial clearing overnight for the rest of the island chain. Otherwise, isolated light showers will move in on the weak southerly flow for the west half and on the southeasterly flow for the east half that will become light east to southeasterlies across the state for the latter part of the week. With lots of deep moisture sticking around through the forecast period, a mix of low and high clouds will stick around and it won't take much to trigger shower development. Precipitable water values (PWats) are expected to remain between 1.8 and 2 inches through midweek before dropping slightly to 1.5 to 1.8 inches for the latter half. For reference, the average PWats for this time of year is around 1.2 inches. This weekend, an upper level trough will dig down rather close to the state from the northwest. While most of the model guidance doesn't do much with it at this point, it's worth keeping an eye on to see if it will help to enhance shower activity over portions of the state, especially with ample moisture lingering and cooler temperatures moving in aloft. && .AVIATION... Stratiform rain will continue to impact the islands today, however generally VFR conditions are expected due to the light intensity of the rain. MVFR conditions are most likely at more elevated sites such as Molokai and Lanai, as well as under periodic bursts of heavier rain. Winds will generally be driven by land-sea breezes, flowing light at less than 10 kts. The forecast generally trends back toward benign trades by the midweek. AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for mountain obscuration for Kauai and Oahu. This may be scaled back further as the rain gradually lets up heading into tomorrow. Moderate icing is possible so long as this ongoing system remains over the islands. && .MARINE... A weak surface trough remains draped across the state, leading to pockets of light winds over the central islands. Winds may be stronger tonight when enhanced near island terrain, such as southeast near the Big Island or south near Kauai, before diminishing Tuesday. The surface trough weakens and lifts out the latter half of the week. High pressure begins to take over at the surface, causing gentle to moderate easterly trades to gradually develop across the Hawaiian coastal waters by this weekend. A small, medium-period northwest swell has diminished, with small surf persisting along north and west facing shores due to a reinforcing pulse on Tuesday. Following this, northwest swell energy declines through the rest of the week. A new south swell arrives on Tuesday, providing a boost to surf along south facing shores through mid week before gradually subsiding into the weekend. Surf along east facing shores will remain below seasonal average with lighter than average trade winds near and upstream of the islands forecast through next week. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Farris AVIATION...Evans MARINE...Bravender  690 FXZS60 NSTU 140140 AFDPPG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pago Pago AS 240 PM SST Mon Apr 13 2026 .Short term... Satellite imagery throughout the morning and early afternoon shows the trough over the American Samoa islands weakening. A mix of sun and clouds remained over the islands during this time. This trough is forecast to linger through Thursday, but is to remain weak. If showers occur, it will be in the passing form and flash flooding is not expected. Winds have remained around 10 mph from the east/southeast at the WFO American Samoa office today, but is expected to slowly decrease in the overnight hours to eventually become a light and variable breeze by Tuesday afternoon. This light breeze is forecast to remain for the rest of the week. .Long term... For Friday and weekend, the weather pattern is not expected to have major changes. On Friday, the risk of showers increase as the trough strengthens slightly as a low pressure system develops to the southeast, but Flash flooding is still not expected. Otherwise, a weak ridge is to move over the region for the weekend leaving generally favorable weather on Saturday and Sunday. Winds are forecast to increase from the east at 10 to 15 mph throughout the weekend. && .Marine... Seas remained rough and high surf was recorded this morning and early afternoon. Expect surf to remain within High Surf Advisory threshold through the overnight tonight, before gradually diminishing by early Tuesday morning. Seas are also forecast to ease, but will likely remain at least close to Small Craft Advisory levels in the morning before easing to below advisory levels in the afternoon. Seas are to be ideal on Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday. A slight uptick in sea heights are anticipated on Thursday as another round of swell moves through the coastal waters. However, this swell is anticipated to be weaker compared to the past few days and sea heights are to remain below Small Craft Advisory conditions. The gentle to moderate east/southeasterly breeze is forecast to remain overnight, but decrease to a light and variable wind by Tuesday afternoon and to remain through the rest of the week. Seas are anticipated to remain below Small Craft Advisory levels on Friday through the weekend. && .PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... A High Surf Advisory remains in effect tonight. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through Tuesday afternoon. && $$ LaPlante  179 FXUS62 KFFC 140141 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 941 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...Evening Update... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 936 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 - Fire weather concerns will persist this week given the ongoing very dry and warm conditions. A Red Flag Warning is in effect across far north Georgia with a Fire Danger Statement to the south through this evening. - Temperatures will remain well above normal through the weekend. Some could approach daily record highs by mid-week. - With little chance of appreciable rainfall over the next 7 days drought conditions will worsen. && .UPDATE... Issued at 936 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 The Red Flag Warning has been allowed to expire. Winds have slackened, and weak moisture rebounds are expected to continue overnight. Minimum relative humidity values will remain at or below critical thresholds tomorrow, and a Fire Danger Statement has been issued for all of north and central Georgia for Tuesday afternoon and evening amid continued anomalously dry conditions. 96 && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 149 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 There will be no change with respect to the ongoing hot and dry stretch with temperatures resuming their upward swing on Tuesday. Atlantic high pressure will maintain its grip at the surface while the resurgent ridge will keep any precipitation/frontal boundaries repelled well to our north and west. Without the impact of today's broken high clouds, highs will warm back into the mid to upper 80s on Tuesday with a few 90 degree readings possibly sneaking into parts of central Georgia. Dangerous fire weather conditions will persist with details expounded upon in the Fire Weather section of the AFD below. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday morning through next Sunday) Issued at 149 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Very Warm and Dry Pattern Continues: A strong ridge extending from the Gulf up across the Southeast US will keep very warm and dry conditions in place throughout this week. This persistent weather can be attributed to a textbook omega-block synoptic pattern, with deep troughing on both sides of the ridge. Dry air from the mid to high latitudes wrapping around the east side of the ridge will keep PWAT values over Georgia generally under 0.75-1", resulting in near zero rainfall chances. One exception to this could be late Thursday, as model guidance continues to have a shortwave pushing across the Midwest and TN Valley. Rainfall chances with this feature will depend on how strong it is as crashes into the ridge, but for now it looks like a 10-20% chance for rain showers in very far NW GA. The dry airmass and low rain chances this week will only worsen our ongoing drought conditions, and likely lead to daily fire weather concerns. High and low temperatures during this period will end up around 12-20 degrees above normal. This will translate to high temperatures in the 80s to low 90s through Saturday. Daily records would be in jeopardy with those temps, and we could see our earliest 90 degree day on record for the Atlanta area. Overnight lows will only drop to the low to mid 60s. The one benefit of the lower moisture/humidity is that heat index values would not be a concern during this period. Cooler with Slight Rain Chances Late This Weekend? Confidence in the forecast starts to drop off after Saturday due to a fairly large spread in model guidance, but there continues to be a growing number of ensemble members showing the synoptic pattern finally starting to breakdown and progress. This progression, with the ridge over the Southeast getting kicked out while broad troughing sets up over most of the Eastern US, would initially bring a cold front and rain chances through the area, with cooler and dry conditions to follow for early next week. Unfortunately, most of the latest ensemble members do not have much moisture with this front, and only have a decent chance of 0.10" of rainfall in far NW GA. If this forecast holds, most of the area will continue to remain rain-free through at least early next week, worsening drought conditions even further. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 738 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 VFR conds to continue with primarily SKC/FEW cigs at 20-25kft. Winds will remain out of the SW at 5-10kts, and may go CALM/VRB at times overnight. //ATL Confidence...00Z Update... High confidence all elements. 96 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 56 86 59 88 / 0 0 0 0 Atlanta 60 86 61 87 / 0 0 0 0 Blairsville 55 82 55 85 / 0 0 0 0 Cartersville 58 87 58 89 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 57 87 58 88 / 0 0 0 0 Gainesville 59 85 60 87 / 0 0 0 0 Macon 55 87 57 89 / 0 0 0 0 Rome 57 87 57 89 / 0 0 0 0 Peachtree City 56 86 57 87 / 0 0 0 0 Vidalia 58 89 60 92 / 0 0 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM....Culver AVIATION...96  772 FXUS63 KLSX 140143 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 843 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .UPDATE... Issued at 828 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Strong to severe thunderstorms have developed this evening over eastern Kansas, thanks in part to a relatively weak mid/upper level shortwave. This complex continues to move just north of east, bringing it into central Missouri late this evening. Chance PoPs (30%) were added to sections of central Missouri at 04z, tracking just north of I-70 into west-central Illinois just south of Quincy, IL between 06-07z. This cluster of thunderstorms has not been handled well at all by hi-res guidance and may raise questions about the thunderstorm potential over central Missouri. In similar fashion to the last few days, the highest MUCAPE remains oriented north to south through the eastern Plains, quickly trailing off to the east. Low and mid-level height rises, along with decreasing instability is expected to allow this complex to weaken considerably as it enters central Missouri. Remnants (showers/iso. thunderstorms) will continue up to the Mississippi River with little semblance of what is left over as it enters Illinois. Severe weather looks unlikely, especially considering thunderstorms will remain elevated. Maples && .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday night and again Wednesday afternoon into evening. The better chance for severe weather exists on Wednesday. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats each day. - A potent cold front will pass through the region late this week, bringing another chance for strong to severe thunderstorms and an end to the unseasonable warmth. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tuesday Night) Issued at 157 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Water vapor imagery shows an upper-mid level longwave trough over the northwestern third of the CONUS with an upper-low level ridge dominating the remainder of the country. The Mid-Mississippi Valley's weather is being influenced by the northwestern portion of ridge as seen by strong, deep southwest flow throughout the atmospheric column. We're seeing this at the surface in the form of temperatures in the 80s, which is 20 degrees above normal for mid- April. Gulf moisture is also being advected in along the southwesterly flow, as characterized by dewpoints in the 60s. Needless to say, there is an abundance of warmth and moisture in the region. This translates to an abundance of instability as well, which leads us into Tuesday and Wednesday's severe potential. The bottom line for Tuesday is that the potential for severe thunderstorms in our area is low. Despite being located within an open warm sector and an 80% HREF probability of having 2500+ J/kg of SBCAPE in place, a strong capping inversion is expected to keep convective initiation at bay through the afternoon. A lack of any forcing or mid and upper level lift supports at least mostly dry weather as well. Instead, supercells are expected to fire off a dryline in Kansas southward through Texas in the afternoon and become severe as they drive northeast. By the time they reach central Missouri in the evening, daytime instability will be quickly waning and CIN quickly growing. If the mass of thunderstorms is still severe by the time it arrives, the increasingly unfavorable environment it moves into will ensure it won't stay severe for long. If any thunderstorm does remain severe, large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats. A strengthening low-level jet Tuesday night will keep ongoing convection from eroding completely and/or spark new initiation. None of this is expected to be severe, but it may impact the potential for severe thunderstorms on Wednesday especially if it lasts well into the morning. Jaja && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Next Monday) Issued at 157 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 By 1pm Wednesday, the longwave trough currently over the western CONUS will be centered in the High Plains. A jet streak will extend northeastward through the Southern Plains and into the Great Lakes region, skimming our CWA along its extent. Though the best upper level forcing will exist to our northwest, we'll still be in the right entrance region of the jet streak and will be able to take advantage of the more robust upper level support. The same can be said in the mid-levels where forcing increases ahead of an incoming shortwave. In the low-levels, a surface cyclone will be pushing northeast from Nebraska into the Upper Midwest, dragging a cold front into northwestern Missouri to serve as forcing for ascent. This will all make for a much better set-up than Tuesday. The only potentially mitigating factor will be instability. More specifically, how well the boundary layer will recover after Tuesday night's/Wednesday morning's low-level jet driven convection. The latest LREF shows only up to 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE in place by 1pm. This is a much lower value than Tuesday's 2500+ J/kg, but with so much support at all levels, it shouldn't matter. Effective bulk shear will also be in the 35-45 kt range, which is more than enough to support severe weather even given the lower instability. Shear vectors are forecast to be about 45 degrees off of the cold front. This may result in discrete thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds initially before congealing into a line or multi- cell mass. Minor shifts in the bulk shear vectors may change storm mode drastically. More than 45 degrees and supercells will be favored. Less than 45 degrees and a QLCS will likely develop faster with damaging winds being the primary threat. As mentioned, thunderstorms will weaken in the hours after sunset. Two mid-level shortwaves, one in the Upper Midwest and another in the Mid-South, will pass Wednesday night into Thursday, and another low-level jet will ramp up along and ahead of the cold front. These features will offer continued support for ascent, and will keep non- severe convection going until the Mid-South shortwave exits late Thursday. The cold front is not expected to clear the area entirely, but will instead buckle northward as a warm front late Thursday. A lack of cold air behind the front will make its passage and return basically unnoticeable as highs reach the widespread upper 70s and low 80s again Thursday. A much more potent cold front will drive through the region late Friday/early Saturday and will bring a real rush of cool air into the area. Although there's still uncertainty regarding how cool we get, the NBM 75th percentile high temperature forecast for KSTL on Sunday is only 71 degrees. There is another chance of thunderstorms on Friday ahead of the cold front with severe weather possible again. The potential for severe weather will rely on the timing of the cold front, which at this point is still very uncertain. Jaja && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening) Issued at 622 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Breezy conditions will continue through tonight with gusts more prevalent from KCOU/KJEF northeastward through KUIN. There is a brief duration overnight when gusts may subside. If this occurs, LLWS may need to be considered in later updates/amendments. Gusts subside around the metro terminals, though all terminals will experience sustained wind at or above 10 knots through tonight. VFR conditions persist through the end of the period with gusts returning to all terminals late Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon. A showers or two is possible, but most will stay dry given the isolated nature of coverage. A better chance for thunderstorms arrive around/after 00z Tuesday evening, mainly at KCOU/KJEF. This was not added to the TAF at this time provided timing uncertainty. This potential will be covered in the next full update, as better chances of showers and thunderstorms arrive after 00z tomorrow night. Maples && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX  719 FXUS62 KTAE 140143 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 943 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 942 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 - Patchy fog is possible on Tuesday morning over the Florida Panhandle and Southeast Alabama, mainly west of the Choctawhatchee River. If encountering fog while driving, slow down, use low beam headlights, and increase braking distance. - Little or no rain is expected through this weekend. Drought conditions will worsen. Fire concerns will remain elevated. Use extreme caution with any outdoor burning. Please heed burn bans where they are in effect. - Above normal temperatures will continue through this weekend, with lower 90s likely late this week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 942 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 No major changes to tonight's forecast were required. A bubble of 1024-mb high pressure was centered off the Forgotten Coast, per 0Z surface analysis. This feature will allow the boundary layer to decouple overnight and open the door for fog development into early tomorrow morning. The best chances are over the FL Panhandle and SE AL where an afternoon seabreeze has progressed from the Emerald Coast and is currently crossing Dothan. Some of the fog may be locally dense. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (This Evening through Sunday) Issued at 246 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Surface high pressure extending from the Atlantic and upper-level high pressure spreading from the Yucatan will keep our weather high and dry for the next several days. Afternoon temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s with low 90s possible by the end of the work week. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s and low 60s through the week. As the weekend approaches, an upper level shortwave from the Midwest will bring a "cold" front closer to the Southeast but will weaken upon approach and fall apart. Another front will develop from a surface low over the Midwest and bring the cold front south to our region by Sunday. Little to no rainfall is expected. Temperatures behind this front will return to the mid-80s. During the morning hours, patchy to areas of fog (possibly dense) is may develop in the FL Panhandle and AL Wiregrass region. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 739 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Mainly VFR conds thru the TAF period with lgt/calm winds, and another aftn seabreeze tmrw. The only concerns are during the early-morning hrs when patchy fog encroaches on ECP/DHN and perhaps VLD. The highest confidence in reduced vsbys are the western terminals where a 9-13Z TEMPO group is in place for 1/2SM. Guidance is not as excited for fog prospects at VLD, but did not want to completely remove the mention from the 18Z package. As a compromise, the lowest vsby was increased to MVFR. && .MARINE... Issued at 246 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A surface high extending from the western Atlantic will keep generally light to gentle southeasterly winds over the waters for the next several days. Seabreezes can be expected to push just inland during the afternoon hours. Later this week, the High will settle a little further south, shifting our winds more southerly. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 246 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Warm and dry conditions will continue through the week. Drought conditions will continue and/or worsen. Transport winds will generally be southerly; swinging from southeasterly to southwesterly at around 5-10 mph. Expect afternoon seabreezes. Dispersions will be moderate, with higher dispersions expected by Wednesday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 246 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 No rain is expected for the next several days. Drought conditions will continue or worsen. For more local drought information & statements, visit the following websites: weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 58 87 57 87 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 59 80 60 81 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 56 86 57 87 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 57 87 58 89 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 58 89 58 90 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 57 88 56 88 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 62 76 62 76 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ Tuesday for FLZ108-112-114-115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ UPDATE...IG3 SHORT TERM...Montgomery LONG TERM....Montgomery AVIATION...IG3 MARINE...Montgomery FIRE WEATHER...Montgomery HYDROLOGY...Montgomery  259 FXUS63 KLOT 140144 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 844 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Late spring to summer-like temperatures will continue through Friday with highs in the 70s and 80s and lows in the 60s. - Several additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms, including a threat for severe weather and flooding expected, especially late Tuesday afternoon/evening and again on Wednesday. - A brief break in the pattern is expected late Thursday into or through the day on Friday before another storm system arrives in the Friday evening to Saturday timeframe. - In the wake of the Saturday cold front, a brief, potentially sharp, shot of much cooler air could bring frost/freeze concerns into next Sunday and Monday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 844 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 After a couple of stronger thunderstorms traversed the CWA earlier this afternoon, conditions have quieted down this evening and any noteworthy convection now resides well outside of the area as of this writing. A few isolated showers and garden variety storms had just recently moved across the area, but now we're seeing only very light radar returns around the CWA. Skies have largely cleared out to our west toward the Mississippi and no convection currently exists immediately upstream. A comparison of the 18Z and 00Z RAOBS out of DVN shows the EML continues to slide eastward across the region with steepening lapse rates above 850mb into this evening. However, the BL has become markedly more stable owing to some low-mid level dry advection and warming low level temps reinforcing a capping inversion, and forecast soundings suggest the BL will only become more stable through the evening. This is a promising signal for conditions to remain largely quiet into the overnight hours. Can't rule out that a low level jet strengthening overhead (to 50 to 55 kt at 850mb by late evening) promotes additional elevated convection atop the stabilizing BL into the night (as hinted by a few WOFs members), but a big majority of recent CAM guidance keeps conditions dry for the next several hours. In the forecast, maintained broad brush slight chances for isolated storms into the night. Farther up to the north and northwest, a tighly-packed line of supercells stretches from northern IA, through SE MN, and across central WI to the Door Peninsula after having formed along a warm front. As the associated surface low and shortwave impulse get sheared out across northern IA and southern WI late tonight, expectations are for this line of storms to evolve into a southeastward propagating MCS and dive across the CWA late tonight into early Tuesday morning. Confidence in this occurring has risen notably over the past several hours with growing support from CAM guidance and now with the early stages of this transition to an MCS taking place over northern IA. This system looks to move into our northwest around roughly 2 AM and progress toward the southeast before exiting our CWA sometime early to mid Tuesday morning. By this time, storms should be plenty elevated and are not expected to pose a severe risk, but can't rule out some gusty winds or small hail given the elevated instability and strong low level wind field. A number of CAMs suggest some heavy rain will be possible resolving swaths of a few to several quick tenths of an inch of QPF. Coverage around the area remains pretty uncertain with the highest coverage of precip favored generally north of I-80. Beyond any activity lingering into the morning, most of Tuesday looks dry before thunder chances increase again for the late afternoon/evening. For more on tomorrow's storm chances and severe potential, refer to the full discussion below. Doom && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Tuesday and Wednesday... Tuesday and Wednesday, aggregate mid/upper level troughing across the southwestern U.S. will slide eastward over the Four Corners Region of the Desert Southwest. As this occurs, the enhanced corridor of broad upper-level southwesterly flow from the Plains to the Upper Midwest will be shunted farther eastward into the Great Lakes. This will essentially steer a parade of shortwave impulses northeastward across our area through midweek. Altogether, this in addition to the favorable overlap of the plume of steep mid-level lapse rates, stalled frontal zone, a steady feed of low-level moisture advection and strong deep-layer shear will support a threat for additional waves of severe thunderstorms in the general region. Of particular concern for more severe storms is the late Tuesday afternoon and evening time period. Following any early morning remnant storms, we should see primarily storm free weather for much of the day as the area becomes capped under the EML inversion. Accordingly, this should favor several hours of diurnal heating and destabilization of the moist (dew points in the 60s) low-level airmass through the day. Scattered thunderstorm development then looks favorable in the vicinity of the frontal boundary across eastern IA and southern WI sometime during the mid to late afternoon hours of Tuesday. Given the favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment, supercells capable of very large hail (2"+) will be a favorable, at least with the initial activity. A notable tornado threat may also develop for a few hours late in the afternoon through early evening across eastern IA into northwestern IL. This as strengthening low- level flow leads to enlarged low-level hodographs into early evening. The storm mode does look to ultimately build upscale into forward propagating segments through the evening, so a transition to damaging wind producing storms is likely as the storms progress east into northern IN later in the evening. Hydrology will also become an increased concern Tuesday night, particularly if repeated rounds of storms move over the same area. If this occurs, a notable threat of flash flooding will materialize into Tuesday night. Prior rounds of convection into Wednesday morning may then muddle the picture convectively speaking for Wednesday PM. Ultimately, pinpointing favored locations and time windows will remain challenging until there is better clarity on exact shortwaves and eventual placements of boundaries. KJB Thursday through Sunday: There's variance regarding the progression of a cold front across the region, with some of the slower solutions holding onto some potential for storms into Thursday afternoon. Thereafter, into Thursday night and at least the start of Friday, ensemble model guidance advertises a brief break in the stormy pattern as shortwave ridging moves through the Great Lakes ahead of a substantial trough digging into the central US. High temperatures look to rebound into the low to even mid 80s by Friday accompanied by another threat for strong to severe thunderstorms Friday night into Saturday. Thereafter, there is a reasonably strong signal in ensemble guidance for a cooldown to start next week. The key aspect for the weekend into early next week cooldown is a recent trend towards a much cooler air mass due to trough amplification over the region. If this comes to pass, parts of the area may flirt with sub-freezing temperatures Saturday night into early Sunday, and again Sunday night into next Monday morning. With the summer-like warmth and rain this week supercharging plant growth and leaf out, the magnitude of the weekend cold shot will be one to watch for agricultural interests. Castro/Borchardt && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 704 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Key messages for the 00Z TAF period: * Isolated showers and thunderstorms this evening * Rain and storm potential overnight into early Tuesday * MVFR cigs expected late tonight through Tuesday morning * Additional thunder potential Tuesday evening Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue meandering about Chicagoland this evening, especially the earlier half. Confidence is growing in a more widespread system of showers and embedded thunderstorms overnight into early Tuesday. Time window appears to be approx. 08 to 11Z at RFD and 09 to 12Z in Chicagoland. MVFR vsbys will be possible beneath these showers. Most of Tuesday will be dry, although can't rule out an isolated afternoon storm or two. Scattered thunder chances increase again for Tuesday evening. MVFR cigs are anticipated to settle in with the rain overnight and stick around into Tuesday. Return to VFR is favored toward the end of the morning in Chicago and into the afternoon at RFD. SSW winds will continue gusting somewhat frequently to around 20 kt, increasing to closer to 25 kt overnight. Wind direction may get squirrelly for a few hours as showers and storms move through late tonight into early Tuesday. Expect SW winds gusting to 20 to 25 kt during the day on Tuesday. Doom && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for Winthrop Harbor IL to Gary IN. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for Gary to Burns Harbor IN-Burns Harbor to Michigan City IN. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago  450 FXUS65 KRIW 140155 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 755 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers linger into early Tuesday morning. Only a few hold on, mainly over the mountains, for Tuesday afternoon. - A cold weather system is forecast to bring widespread precipitation late Wednesday through Friday, with most locations seeing measurable snowfall by Friday. - Colder air arrives behind a Thursday cold front, which will generate north wind gusting 30 to 45 mph. A hard freeze (28 degrees or colder) looks likely (80% + chances) across the area Thursday night and especially Friday night. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1243 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 18Z satellite water vapor imagery shows two upper level lows, one over southwest Montana and another over central California. Both lows will shift east over the next 24 hours and influence our weather at the surface. The Montana low will slowly make its way into northern Wyoming this afternoon and evening and provide support for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across western and northern Wyoming. Modest instability will be present this afternoon with CAPE values up to 500 J/kg and 25 to 30kts of effective bulk shear. These values, along with terrain influence and 30 to 40 degree dew point depressions are all indicators that a few stronger thunderstorms could produce gusty 30 to 40 mph outflow winds. As for the mountains, light snow is expected to fall with snow levels ranging from 6,300 to 6,500 feet. If snow levels happen to be lower than what is forecast, the western valleys could see a rain/mix with any shower to storm. Shower and thunderstorm chances will come to an end around sunrise this evening as instability wanes and the low moves overhead. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions remain in place across central and southern Wyoming due to gusty 25 to 45 mph winds and relative humidity values below 20%. The Red Flag Warning in effect for portions of Natrona County remains in effect until 8 PM this evening. On Tuesday, light precipitation chances have been maintained across southern and western Wyoming as the aforementioned central California low traverses into Colorado. Light snow can be expected across the mountains Tuesday afternoon with snow levels around 7,000 feet. Beyond Tuesday, all focus continues to be on the winter weather and hard freeze potential Wednesday night through Friday night. Confidence continues to increase in most locations seeing snow by Friday as model guidance has remained consistent from run to run. However, we have opted to not issue any headlines at this time given this system only begins to arrive late Wednesday night and there are still a few uncertainties in amounts and timing. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 327 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 It is often said that Wyoming can experience many different seasons in a week. This is especially so during the transition time, and especially during the Spring as the battle between warm air from the south and cold air to the north holding on for dear life. We currently have another in the series of shortwaves rotating around an upper level low now moving into California. It is bringing some showers, mainly to western Wyoming. And some of this is in the form of snow, including at the Jackson Hole airport, where 700 millibar temperatures falling to around minus 4 have dropped snow levels to around 6500 feet. The steadiest precipitation should be over shortly after sunrise, but the chance of showers will linger through the day. Otherwise, things looks somewhat similar to yesterday, with a scattering of showers across the area with a few thunderstorms thrown in. Once again, the best coverage will be in western Wyoming with areas East of the Divide dry most of the day. The chance for strong storms looks less through, with cooler temperatures and less instability. And we have another concern, fire weather. The approaching shortwave will bring gusty to strong wind to portions of the area, mainly in the southwestern Wind Corridor from east of Rock Springs through Natrona County. There is a brief period of 700 millibar wind rising to 50 knots around 9 am in this vicinity. Ensemble guidance also shows a greater than 1 out 2 chance of wind gusts past 50 mph as well. However, at this point, critical fire weather looks to be the greater impact. Temperatures are running cooler than on Sunday. However, with a greater than 1 in 2 chance of relative humidity falling below 15 percent for three hours, we have decided to go with a Red Flag Warning for Natrona County. Elsewhere, relative humidity does not look to reach critical levels. Elevated fire weather is certainly a possibility though. Tuesday still looks to be a driest day across the area. Reasoning is the same as yesterday with the upper level low passing south of the area over Colorado. Models have come into better agreement with keeping the best forcing and moisture south of the area. The chance of greater than a tenth of an inch or precipitation is less than 1 out of 4 except in far southern Sweetwater County and the higher elevations of the northwest. Most areas should have a decent day with somewhat above normal temperatures and much less wind. Attention then turns to the next, stronger system moving in for the end of the week. An upper level low will move onshore in British Columbia on Wednesday and move toward Wyoming Thursday, bring a cold front and a decent amount of moisture. There is somewhat better agreement in regards to timing. A few showers may occur Wednesday afternoon, but any substantial precipitation should hold off until after sunset Wednesday. It will bring some gusty to strong wind though Wednesday into Thursday, following the usual progression of pre frontal Muddy Gap to Casper on Wednesday and Wednesday night pre frontal and transitioning to northwest / cold advection areas on Thursday and Thursday night like Buffalo, the Bighorn Basin and Wind River Basin on Thursday and Thursday night. Many locations have a greater than 1 in 2 chance of wind gusts past 45 mph during this time. However, of greater interest though is what will happen with something we desperately need, precipitation. This system is a fairly wet one, with precipitable waters as much as 150 percent of climatological normals. However, the exact track of the low is still in question as well as some mesoscale features with it. As a result, confidence remains rather low on the resultant placement of the heaviest precipitation and any potential amounts. So, this is when we dive into the wondrous realm of probabilistic and ensemble forecasting. And the National Blend of Models has good news in this regard, with a large majority of the area having a greater than 1 in 2 chance of greater than a quarter of an inch of precipitation from Wednesday night through Friday night. And this will be a cold system following the frontal passage, with snow levels falling to the basin floors Thursday evening. Most areas have at least a 1 in 2 chance of greater than an inch of snow over a similar period. Many of the northerly upslope areas, like Lander, the southern Big Horn Basin and Casper, have a greater than 1 in 2 chance of 4 inches or more. However, this is far from certain. Also, with recent warm temperatures and warm ground, any predicted amounts will likely not be the amount on peoples yards as some will likely melt initially. At this point, the most impactful time would be Thursday night into Friday morning with gradually improving conditions Friday afternoon. This is the best chance for decent moisture we have had in quite a while though. And then we move into the next question, how cold will it get? Thursday night will likely drop into the 20s, but snow and possible travel problems will likely be of greater concern during this time frame. The timeframe we are looking at is Friday night for the coldest temperatures. There are a couple of concerns though. One, the models are split on if it can clear. If it remains cloudy, temperatures may stay a bit warmer. Also, snow cover will be a big factor. If snow is lighter then expected and if the strong April sun can melt it off Friday, it might not get as cold. As we head to the ensemble guidance again, much of the area has at least a 1 in 2 chance of low temperatures falling below 20 degrees. Now, no one should be planting gardens or crops this early in Wyoming, long time residents know this. The main concern is with budding trees, flowers as well as sprinkler systems that may freeze. It is still a long way off, but we will have to watch it. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 417 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will continue through the afternoon as the area sits under the influence of the approaching upper low. This has been most focused west of the Divide and across the Bighorn Basin. The main concern with this activity will be the potential for outflow wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph. This activity will wane after sunset for most locations. KJAC will be the exception, with snow showers leading to a short period of MVFR to IFR conditions through around 05Z. KJAC should then hold on to broken low VFR ceilings through late morning before clouds decrease. Tuesday afternoon will see lighter winds and decreased precipitation chances, mostly confined to the mountains. KJAC will be most favored for a stray shower to impact the terminal, though low confidence precludes mention in the TAF for now. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 327 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A combination of humidity falling below 15 percent, a southwest wind gusting over 50 mph and dry fuels will bring critical fire weather to Natrona County this afternoon. Elsewhere, relative humidity should not reach critical levels. However, gusty wind and humidity falling to 20 percent may bring elevated fire weather this afternoon. Conditions should improve on Tuesday as wind decreases and relative humidity moves somewhat higher. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Gerhardt DISCUSSION...Hattings AVIATION...Myers FIRE WEATHER...Hattings  758 FXUS64 KJAN 140158 AAB AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 858 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New MESOSCALE UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Limited fire danger will continue today. - Drought conditions continue to increase across the region due to prolonged dry weather. && .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 855 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Forecast remains on track tonight, with mid clouds found throughout central portions of the CWA. Later on, low lying stratus is set to migrate in the south east quandrant of the CWA causing some minor impacts to travel and aviation./OAJ/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 110 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Tonight through Sunday...The main impacts during this forecast period will come Tuesday in the form of some potential for patchy dense fog across namely Southeast Mississippi early in the morning and some continued "limited" fire weather concerns from late morning through the afternoon, Thursday as a disturbance moves through the Mid-South, and over the weekend as a frontal boundary is advertised to push through the CWA. Otherwise, strong high pressure aloft will continue to meander over the central and eastern Gulf of America. This, while high pressure at the surface centered off the coast of the Carolinas, remains wedged into the Deep South from the east. The combination of the two will continue to promote overall quiet conditions and above normal warmth across the forecast area through much of this forecast period. On Tuesday, with increased moisture, mild conditions, and light to calm winds early in the morning, some patchy dense fog is possible across mainly Southeast Mississippi. This will quickly begin dissipating after sunrise. Come late morning and afternoon, some fire weather concerns will persist across the area given the dry fuels from the ongoing drought and breezy southerly winds. Afternoon minimum relative humidity values will again mix into the 35-45% range, especially across eastern portions of the area where they'll hover more in the 35-40% range. Despite the increased humidity levels and greening vegetation, this "limited" fire danger threat for Tuesday will again primarily be driven by the aforementioned breezy winds and very dry soil conditions. Just the combination of these two could lead to some increase in wild fires across the area and the potential for even monitored open burning to potentially get out of hand. There will be a slight increase in rain chances across northern portions of the forecast area on Thursday. While the remainder of the CWA will remain dry, a shortwave lifting northeast across the Mid-South region could spark some isolated showers and storms across mainly the Highway 82 corridor during peak heating hours Thursday afternoon. Any convection that develops during this time, will quickly dissipate in the early evening as day time heating wanes. Finally, a better chance for showers and isolated storms currently exists across the entire forecast area Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. This is as a result of a stronger shortwave that's advertised to push a cold front east into and through the region late Saturday afternoon into early Sunday. While any rain chances are much appreciated and welcomed, unfortunately this front will be in the process of weakening as forcing lifts out to the northeast. This looks to keep the better rain chances during this timeframe across western and northern portions of the forecast area. Therefore, the upcoming weekend is by no means looking to be a washout. However, some relief from the above normal warmth and humid conditions is being advertised for the forecast area on Sunday. /19/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 614 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 VFR flight conditions with southerly winds ranging from 5-15kts Another round of stratus is expected to move in to the HBG area tonight dropping conditions to MVFR with some potential for LIFR/IFR until an hour or two after sunrise. All other times and sites will remain benign and VFR. /OAJ/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 62 85 61 85 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 58 85 57 85 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 63 86 61 86 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 60 85 59 86 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 63 86 61 84 / 0 0 0 10 Greenville 66 86 65 86 / 10 0 0 0 Greenwood 65 87 63 86 / 10 0 0 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ 19/19/OAJ