414 FXUS62 KKEY 140200 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1000 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all Florida Keys coastal waters overnight. Breezy conditions will persist through at least Tuesday evening. - Little to no measurable rain will maintain continued moderate drought conditions in the Florida Keys for the next week. - Temperatures will remain near normal, with highs in the lower 80s, and lows in the lower 70s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1000 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Deep mean layer ridging remains in place across the western North Atlantic. This ridge extends westward through Florida and into the eastern Gulf. Marine observation platforms surrounding the Florida Keys are recording northeast to east breezes near 20 knots as a result. GOES 19 Total Precipitable Water (TPW) products shows estimated PWAT values of 0.60 to 0.8 inches throughout the Florida Keys. This places the PWAT values between the 10th and 25th percentiles for the date. KBYX radar has been void of any activity as a result. GOES 19 Nighttime Microphysics imagery shows stratocumulus dotting the sky across the Keys with these moving in a northeast to southwest direction. Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the mid 70s and dew points are in the lower to mid 60s. .SHORT TERM FORECAST... The 00z evening sounding at KEY sampled decent shallow moisture up to around 850 mb, capped by a more stout temperature inversion than at this time last evening. The air above this inversion was even drier than at this time last evening. The sounding also shows weak backing with height. Winds shift from 080 at 1000 ft to 070 at 3000 ft. The sounding measured a PWAT value of 0.83 inches which is close to the 10th percentile for the date. This is indicative of a very dry atmosphere. Outside of some nocturnal showers due to the continued fresh breezes overnight, no forecast changes are expected with this update. && .MARINE... Issued at 1000 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all the Florida Keys coastal waters overnight. From synopsis, a high pressure system over the central North Atlantic will maintain fresh northeast to east breezes through early Tuesday morning. Occasional fast- moving light showers cannot be ruled out, especially in the overnight periods. Breezes may briefly lull during the late afternoon and early evening across the Gulf waters due to the heating of South Florida. As the high moves farther eastward and slowly weakens, easterly breezes will modestly slacken for Thursday and Friday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1000 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail at both MTH and EYW terminals through the TAF period. Near surface winds will remain mostly easterly between 9 to 15 knots overnight and 12 to 18 knots during the day. Frequent gusts of 20 to 25 knots are mainly expected during the daylight hours again on Tuesday. We also cannot rule out an occasional passing light shower, especially overnight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 82 72 82 73 / 10 10 10 10 Marathon 80 73 81 73 / 10 10 10 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for GMZ031>035- 042>044-052>055-072>075. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...MJV Aviation/Nowcasts....MJV Data Acquisition.....DR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest  665 FXUS66 KLOX 140206 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 706 PM PDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .SYNOPSIS...13/1205 AM. Scattered rain and mountain snow showers will continue at times through the afternoon, mainly over the interior and the Central Coast. Dry and warmer weather is expected the rest of this week. && .SHORT TERM (MON-THU)...13/847 AM. ***UPDATE*** The main story today is the potential for lingering showers and thunderstorms as a very cold (for mid April) upper low hangs nearby to the north. Modest instability and strong mid level lapse rates support a 10-30 percent chance of thunderstorms this afternoon to early evening with the highest probability from the LA County mountains and Antelope Valley foothills west to the Ventura County mountains. Main storm hazards will be brief heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and cloud-to-ground lightning. Although a weak/brief tornado cannot be ruled out, especially across eastern LA County, focused across the mountains into the Antelope Valley. Storm motion will generally be south to east 10-30 mph following steering motion aloft, limiting localized flooding concerns, however a few storms could become anchored in place. Peak rainfall rates will generally be around a quarter of an inch or less per hour. However, any training of or anchored storms could produce very localized rates on the order of 0.5-0.75 inches in one hour. ***From Previous Discussion*** Brisk and dry westerly flow is over the area. There are clouds pushed up against the north slopes where some snow flurries may also occur. A weak convergence zone is also bringing some showers to the Long Beach area. Later this morning a weak impulse will move over the area. The high April sun angle and mostly clear morning skies will bring low level heating to the area esp the mtns. The trof will bring cool air aloft and lift. These two things will combine to bring a chc of showers and slight chc of TSTMs late this morning and into the early evening. Additional rainfall will not be much except for isolated heavier amounts under any TSTMs that form. Snow levels will range from 4500 to 5000 ft today. The morning will see snow across the north slopes, but the afternoon will have the showers and TSTMs. These snow levels and the showers and TSTMs along with the gusty winds will create winter weather advisory conditions and the Winter Weather Advisory has been extended until 700 pm this evening. It will be breezier than normal esp in the Antelope Vly. The sunshine will overwhelm the cold air advection and max temps will rise 1 to 3 locally 4 or 5 degrees over most areas. Max temps will still end up 5 to 10 degrees blo normal. Weak ridging will set up on Tuesday and continue into Wednesday. There will be onshore flow to the east. In the north south direction there will be weak offshore flow in the morning and weak onshore flow in the afternoon as the gradients follow the typical diurnal pattern. Skies will be at worst partly cloudy. Max temps will rise both days. Look for 3 to 6 locally 8 degrees on Tue with an additional 1 to 2 degrees on Wednesday. Wednesday's highs will top out in the upper 60s across the csts and in the lower to mid 70s across the vlys. Max temps will still be a couple degrees blo normal. .LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...13/314 AM. An inside slider is expected to work its way down the state line on Thursday, followed by dry NW to N flow on Friday. Thursday morning will feature onshore flow to the east and offshore flow from the north. On Friday there will be weak offshore flow from both the north and east in the morning. There will not be much wind on Thursday, but Thursday night and Friday decent north flow will develop in the mtns with advisory level gusts likely through the I-5 corridor and the Santa Barbara county mountains. Max temps will not change much on Thursday, but the offshore flow will bring 2 to 4 degrees of warming to most of the area on Friday. On Saturday the upper flow turn westerly. There will still be some offshore flow at the sfc, but with no upper support it will only generate sub advisory canyon winds. Max temps will respond to the continued offshore flow and 3 to 5 degrees of additional warm seems likely. This will bring max temps up into the upper 70s to mid 80s for most of csts/vlys which is 4 to 8 degrees above normal. Mdls are struggling a bit with the pattern for Sunday. All mdls show a large upper low spinning somewhere to the NW but there is massive disagreement on the location. For now the forecast is similar to Saturday with just a little cooling across the csts as the offshore flow weakens. && .AVIATION...14/0206Z. At 2138Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer or inversion. Overall, high confidence in 00Z TAF package as VFR conditions are expected for most sites through the period. There is a 30-40% chance for MVFR cigs at KPRB after 10Z. KLAX...High confidence in 00Z TAF as VFR conditions are expected through the period. No significant easterly wind component is expected. KBUR...High confidence in 00Z TAF as VFR conditions are expected through the period. && .MARINE...13/1208 PM. For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Friday, high confidence in a combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas. On Thursday and Thursday night, there is a 30-40% chance of GALE force winds. For Saturday, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds. For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Thursday, high confidence in SCA level winds during the afternoon and evening hours. On Friday and Saturday, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours. For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through this evening, high confidence in SCA level winds. For Tuesday through Thursday, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel, but only a 20-30% chance of SCA level winds elsewhere. For Friday through Saturday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zones 645-650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT Tuesday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Munroe/Rorke AVIATION...PHILLIPS/RAT MARINE...RAT SYNOPSIS...Gomberg/Ciliberti weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox  397 FXUS65 KCYS 140207 AAA AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 707 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered rain and snow showers in Carbon and Albany counties late tonight into Tuesday morning may result in a few slick spots along the I-80 corridor and accumulating snow above about 8500 feet in elevation. - A strong but compact system will bring a chance for rain to the High Plains, mainly Tuesday afternoon and evening. - Warmer and drier weather returns for Wednesday and Thursday, bringing elevated to critical fire weather conditions and marginally high winds in the wind prone areas. - A potent weather disturbance will produce windy, colder and wetter weather for Thursday night and Friday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Warm and dry conditions remain over the area once again today. Breezy to windy conditions are producing widespread critical fire weather conditions. Current GOES water vapor imagery shows a messy synoptic weather pattern across the western CONUS. At least three disorganized upper level lows are circulating over the area. As each of these features traverses east, we will have a complex setup heading into Tuesday. The main player will be the nearly closed low currently over southern California which will move off to the northeast over the next 24 hours, but this will get interference from another upper level low currently over the northern Rockies. Upper level moisture will increase from the southwest, supporting a few virga showers this afternoon and evening. As moisture aloft improves, these will be more likely to reach the ground especially after midnight or so. Look for rain and snow showers to spread across Carbon and Albany counties into Tuesday morning. Snow levels will start out between 6500 and 7500 feet, supporting a rain snow mix along I-80 between Cheyenne and Rawlins. Due to the pre-dawn timing, there could be some light accumulations and slick spots in these areas with daybreak Tuesday, but conditions should improve quickly with the strong April sun. The higher peaks will also benefit from much better orographic lift. Above 10,000 feet or so, probabilities for 6" or more of snow are around 50 to 65%. This could warrant a low end Winter Weather Advisory, but opted to pass on this due to the marginal totals confined only to the highest peaks. Still, travelers in the mountains should prepare for some areas of snow and slick conditions Tuesday morning. Further east, a southwest to northeast oriented low-level convergence boundary is expected to kick off elevated shower activity, but it will be harder to overcome the dry boundary layer east of the Laramie Range. Still, PoPs in the 15 to 40 percent range are present over the area. Surface winds will be all over the place on Tuesday, but speeds should be fairly light with the possible exception of the I-80 corridor between Laramie and Sidney where east to southeast winds may be gusty at times. Heading into Tuesday afternoon, the approaching upper level low will support lee-cyclogenesis over northeast Colorado. The morning convergence boundary supporting the shower activity will get pulled into the strengthening system as it moves off to the northeast. Models show fairly potent mid level frontogenesis as this occurs, and a very narrow TROWAL developing by Tuesday evening as the system departs. The main uncertainty is where exactly this occurs. The overall system will be extremely compact, such that a difference in 50 to 100 miles in the exact location of lee cyclogenesis could mean the difference between beneficial rainfall and nothing at all for the High Plains. In addition to the synoptic forcing, a few hundred J/kg of CAPE are expected to be present, so some isolated embedded thunderstorms will be possible. The most likely scenario tomorrow evening will be a band of moderate rainfall traversing from west to east across the area, with potential for localized areas receiving over 0.25" of rainfall. There are still a few ensemble members (and the deterministic GFS) that keep the forcing for rainfall entirely south of our area, but model consensus is for this to occur somewhere likely south of a Wheatland to Chadron line. Overall confidence is pretty low in precipitation amounts and location, but there will be a high ceiling too due to the strong but narrow forcing and plentiful mid to upper level moisture. Light rain may continue after midnight, but we should be done with this system by Wednesday morning. Ridging will rebound over the area on Wednesday into Thursday, resuming the mild and dry weather pattern that has dominated this season so far. Look for temperatures around 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal averages on Wednesday, climbing closer to 15 degrees above average for Thursday east of the Laramie Range. Expect breezy westerly flow on Wednesday, which will turn southwesterly on Thursday ahead of the next system diving into the Pacific northwest. Widespread elevated to near critical fire weather conditions will be present both days. In addition, we will need to watch for another round of marginally high winds. The wind prone areas have approximately a 30 to 40% chance for high winds on Wednesday. As the flow turns more southwest Thursday, this will decrease to around 10 to 20% for the I-80 summit and Bordeaux areas, but increase to around 50 to 60% for the Arlington and Elk Mountain areas. This may also extend a little further west than usual, perhaps into the Rawlins area. LREF median 700-mb winds are around 45 knots over Rawlins Thursday morning, which gives probabilities around 50 to 60% here as well. As is typical with southwest flow, we will also have to watch Converse county, which currently has a 30% chance for seeing high winds on Wednesday night and Thursday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Thursday night-Friday...A progressive and sharp trough aloft and its associated cold front move from Idaho and Utah Thursday evening, to western Wyoming late Thursday night, with the cold front passing our counties Thursday night. The trough axis aloft tracks across our counties during the day on Friday. Fairly high confidence in scattered to numerous rain and snow showers spreading from west to east Thursday night, with likely to widespread snow showers Friday afternoon. Much cooler and windy on Friday with maximum temperatures in the mid 30s and 40s. Winter weather highlights may be needed for the mountains and nearby locations. Saturday...Snow showers will gradually end from west to east early in the day, as the shortwave trough aloft moves into the northern Great Plains states. Strong low and mid level northwest flow will help produce a windy day, with possible high winds for our wind prone locations. Somewhat warmer than Friday with 700 mb temperatures near 6 Celsius. Sunday...The flow aloft weakens as low amplitude shortwave ridging aloft develops over Wyoming, producing dry conditions and mild temperatures in the upper 50s and 60s with 700 mb temperatures near 2 Celsius. Monday...Ridging aloft moves over our forecast area, with surface lee troughing over our eastern counties, producing a dry and mild day. 700 mb temperatures near 8 Celsius will yield maximum temperatures in the mid 60s west of I-25, with 70s east of I-25. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 521 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Southwest flow aloft will continue. A weather disturbance and its associated cold front will move into central Wyoming Tuesday morning, producing isolated to scattered rain and snow showers for our terminals. Wyoming TAFS...Ceilings will vary from 9000 to 12000 feet until late tonight and Tuesday morning, with ceilings likely (70 percent likelihood) becoming 4000 to 6000 feet Tuesday morning, and scattered rain and snow showers at Rawlins and Laramie reducing visibilities to 4 miles from 15Z to 19Z Tuesday, with moderate to high confidence in shower coverage. Winds will gust to 40 knots until 02Z. Nebraska TAFS...Scattered to broken clouds from 12000 to 15000 feet will occur until 15Z, with ceilings most likely (near 70 percent) near 5000 feet after 15Z Tuesday, along with isolated rain showers, 10 to 20 percent coverage in the morning and 30 to 40 percent coverage in the afternoon. Confidence is not high enough to include more than vicinity in the TAFS. Winds will gust to 36 knots until 03Z at Chadron, Alliance and Scottsbluff. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MN LONG TERM...RUBIN AVIATION...RUBIN  958 FXUS63 KFSD 140207 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 907 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy dense fog is possible tonight. While the best chances are east of I-29 (40-50%) patchy valley fog is possible as far west as the James River Valley. Fog should burn off by mid to late morning. - Periodic chances (20-60%) for showers and thunderstorms continue this week. Details remain uncertain at this time. - Thursday and Friday Elevated to near Critical Fire Danger is possible, due to gusty winds and low relative humidity. && .UPDATE... Issued at 901 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Showers and thunderstorms have pushed east of our region. Mostly quiet conditions are expected overnight as winds become light and variable. Short term guidance indicates about a 40-50% chance of patchy dense fog development after midnight tonight. While the highest chances for fog are east of I-29, very patchy valley fog may form as far west as the James River Valley. Fog should burn off by mid to late morning. Slightly cooler highs in the upper 60s and 70s Tuesday thanks to CAA behind the departing low pressure. Winds will be slightly breezy out of the north gusting 15-20 mph. While relative humidity values will remain above critical thresholds, High Fire Danger will still be present over south central South Dakota Tuesday afternoon. Please continue to use caution and report any fires immediately. By Tuesday afternoon a wave approaches from the west bringing chances for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. These storms are not expected to be severe and will be very spotty in nature. Most will not see any rain during the day Tuesday. Tuesday evening the surface low approaches from the southwest reinvigorating shower and thunderstorm chances. The better dynamics lay to the southeast of our forecast area, but a few stronger thunderstorms are possible east of I-29 Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. Shower chances hang around through much of the day on Wednesday before clearing out Wednesday afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 238 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Scattered thunderstorms are set to develop over the next few hours, bringing the potential for a few severe storms with large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two. As of 2 pm, a surface low is located over northern Nebraska with a warm front extending northeast of it across far southeastern South Dakota into northwest Iowa. Dew points in the 60s have been gradually spreading northward, and these higher dew points are expected to reach the I-90 corridor over the next couple of hours. This boundary will be the focus of initial storm development, with these storms having access to 35-50 kts of effective bulk shear and 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. There are questions though on how much some high clouds have limited the area from reaching full heating potential, but if a storm can get going then steep mid level lapse rates of 7.5-8.5 degrees C/km and mostly straight, elongated hodographs will favor large hail to around 2 inches in diameter or larger. The secondary threat will be damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph. If a storm can get rooted to the aforementioned surface warm front, then a tornado or two will also be possible. Can't rule out a strong tornado either, primarily over southwest Minnesota. As the low pressure system drift across the area, a few additional showers and storms look to develop farther south across northwest Iowa (down to about IA Highway-3, or just north of US Highway-20) within the warm sector around sunset. These storms could also be on the strong to severe side, with an isolated instance of quarter sized hail and 60 mph as the threats. Showers and storms will exit off to our east by the mid evening hours, leaving mostly quiet conditions in its wake. A few showers may develop in central South Dakota prior to daybreak Tuesday, but dry air should win out and prevent most if not all of this from reaching the ground. Patchy fog will also be possible by early Tuesday morning across portions of northwest Iowa and southwest Minnesota as winds turn light and variable overnight and ample moisture remains in place. Temperatures tonight drop mainly in the 40s, though some 50s are possible in our easternmost areas. Low chances for showers continue into the day on Tuesday, but activity is expected to remain spotty at best as rain continues to battle a dry sub cloud layer. Highs will range from the 60s northwest to 70s southeast. Rain chances look to increase Tuesday night into Wednesday as two shortwave troughs impact our area. The best chances of rain and storms look to be over northwest Iowa and adjacent areas of Nebraska, South Dakota, and Minnesota. At this time, severe weather looks unlikely with this system as the better instability looks to be off to our south and east. Rain and storms exit off to our east by Wednesday night, leading to a dry Thursday. Winds look to increase on Thursday especially west of I-29 closer to a deepening surface low, and winds may take on a southwesterly component especially in south central South Dakota. This could lead to another day with higher fire danger as temperatures will be warm and relative humidity values drop to 25% or below mainly along and west of the James River. Still some uncertainty into how breezy the winds will be, so keep up to date with the latest forecast. Not too much time to look into the extended forecast given the near term severe weather threat, but guidance is in fairly good agreement that the western trough will begin to move into our area by the end of the work week/early weekend. This could bring more rain and storms to our area on Friday and then colder weather into Saturday as guidance indicates a stronger push of cold air advection behind this system. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 641 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 VFR conditions are expected for the majority of the period. Thunderstorms, some severe producing 2+ inch hail, are ongoing east of I-29 in northwest Iowa and southwest Minnesota. These storms will continue to track northeast through about 14.03Z. Some patchy dense fog is possible near daybreak east of I-29. This should burn off by mid morning. A few light rain showers are possible again Wednesday afternoon but confidence is too low to include in the TAFs at this time. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...AJP DISCUSSION...Samet AVIATION...AJP  873 FXUS61 KCLE 140227 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1027 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The bulk of the forecast remains unchanged regarding the upcoming systems. It is worth noting that confidence in any severe potential remains low, but is expected to increase with future model runs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Multiple rounds of convection possible in the next 48 hours, but there remains a high level uncertainty in the potential across the area. 2) A strong low pressure system is expected to impact the area late week into the weekend. 3) Above average temperatures are expected to persist through Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A boundary slowly sagging south today should stall just north of the area. Multiple low pressure system are expected to travel along this boundary through Thursday, resulting in multiple chances for precipitation and thunderstorms. There are two notable periods of potential strong to severe storms in the next 48 hours, but there remains little confidence in the evolution of either system. The first push of storms is expected late tonight into Tuesday morning as decaying convection from the northern Great Lakes moves into the area. Given the timing, limited instability will be present, however a strong LLJ of 35-45 knots will assist in maintaining some storms. Cannot rule out a couple strong to severe thunderstorms, but highest confidence in this occurring would be across the northwestern portion of the area. Primary threat will be wind, although hail is not out of the question. Right now, SPC highlights this potential over the area with a D1 Marginal Risk. The tricky part of this forecast is figuring out how quickly this morning convection pushes east and allows the atmosphere to rebound ahead of the next system. Some hi-res guidance, including the HRRR, suggest that there will be two lines of convection in the morning which would result in storms lingering much longer. On the flip side, models such as the ARW having convection moving east of the area by late morning. If the HRRR is correct, thunderstorms will likely still occur overnight but much of the severe potential will remain limited. If the ARW is correct, then strong to severe thunderstorms across the area is possible late Tuesday evening into the overnight hours. With convection departing earlier in the day, ample WAA and deep layer moisture will be able to surge across the area, enhance by daytime heating and increasing instability. This should provide a decent environment for strong to severe storms to occur with the primary concern being strong to damaging winds. The only common thing amongst the spread in models is that the convection that does push into the area will likely be decaying remnants of severe weather expected across the upper Midwest tomorrow. SPC currently has a D2 Slight Risk to highlight this potential threat. Stay tuned for the latest forecast as this system continues to evolve and models hopefully get into a better agreement in handling what will happen in the next 48 hours. KEY MESSAGE 2... A deepening upper level trough is expected to push south across the central CONUS on Friday into the weekend, moving a strongest low pressure system and associated boundaries through the area. This system may once again pose a severe weather risk, although confidence is fairly low this far out. There is high confidence that areawide showers will occur this weekend as a strong cold front moves east. On the backside of that boundary, temperatures will once again dip, although this time to near normal, with highs falling into the 50s by Sunday. KEY MESSAGE 3... Temperatures are expected to remain above normal for the bulk of this week with highs consistently in the 70s, possibly touching 80 at times. Overnight lows will remain mild with temperatures only falling into the 60s. CPC has highlighted the area in a potential for prolonged above average temperatures for the next two week. It is worth noting that after the cold front Saturday, temperatures will briefly fall back to near normal (in the 50s) before once again increasing next week. && .AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/... The main aviation concerns for this evening TAF update is with the ongoing strong convection that is moving across northern Ohio and NWPA. We have mainly VFR conditions for most of the area outside of the areas being impacted by the showers and storms. There are TEMPO groups through late evening highlighting the potential for a short term impacts for TAF sites due to the scattered convection through 06z ending from west to east during the overnight. Brief MVFR to IFR conditions may be possible with any heavier showers and storms over the airfield. Ceilings will remain VFR to possible MVFR later tonight through late Tuesday morning. Ceilings will lift by midday into the afternoon to VFR on Tuesday. The TAF forecast is somewhat uncertain Tuesday morning through the end of the period as model guidance varies quite a bit on timing and location of the next 1 or 2 rounds of possible convection that may move close or over portions of our area on Tuesday. We will maintain a generic VFR forecast in the TAFs for now until we have better confidence. Southwest winds will remain elevated 10 to 20 knots over the next 18 to 24 hours with gusts 25 to 30 knots likely, especially during the daytime heating mixing down winds on Tuesday. Outlook...Occasional non-VFR conditions are expected in periodic showers and thunderstorms through Thursday. && .MARINE... Southwest winds remain elevated at 20-25 knots early this morning before wind speeds diminish from west to east through this afternoon. Small Craft Advisory for the western basin will expire at 10 AM this morning with the remainder of the lake expiring at 4 PM this afternoon. Southerly to southwesterly winds 12-18 knots will remain in place through the end of the week as multiple systems move across the region. Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances will be present through Thursday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...04 AVIATION...77 MARINE...13  034 FXUS65 KTFX 140230 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 830 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated mountain snow and lower elevation rain showers this evening. - Gusty winds along the Rocky Mountain Front Tuesday and Wednesday. - A spring storm late Wednesday through Thursday brings impactful mountain snow, with lower elevation snow Thursday. - Drier and milder conditions move in for the weekend. && .UPDATE... Updated forecast is out for this evening. Main change was just to freshen pops. Also to add a bit of thunder in Hill/Blaine counties where a few thunderstorms developed this evening. A weak upper level disturbance is moving eastward along the Hi-line this evening in the westerly flow aloft, resulting in just enough instability for a few thunderstorms. Some patchy fog is possible once again later tonight and into Tuesday morning. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast is on track. Brusda && .DISCUSSION... /Issued 300 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026/ - Meteorological Overview: A small closed low tracking across Idaho through Southwest MT, will keep isolated mountain snow and lower elevation rain showers through the rest of the day today. Weak instability will allow for isolated thunderstorms to develop, but any storms that do develop will remain weak. There will be a break in precipitation Tuesday before the next incoming trough moves through. Increasing westerly flow aloft will allow for some cross barrier flow to move into the Rocky Mountain Front. Gusty winds develops as a result along the Rocky Mountain Front Tuesday through Wednesday morning. A deepening trough from the British Columbia coast begins to move into the Pacific NW Wednesday. Mountain snow with lower elevation rain moves into the region along with breezy winds. A Pacific cold front sweeps across the region beginning late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Strong cold air advection along the front will crash snow levels down to the lower elevations, allowing for some accumulating snow Thursday. Temperatures will also be well below normal Thursday. Snow lingers through the day Thursday before this system exits. Northwest flow Friday keeps isolated rain/snow showers. An upper-level ridge builds in for the weekend, which will bring drier and milder weather besides for a few terrain driven showers. - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: Winds Tuesday and Wednesday: Peak mid level flow looks to move through Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Though this peak 700mb winds look to pass through quickly. Therefore, it will be difficult for high wind warning criteria winds to materialize, but it will still be windy along the immediate Rocky Mountain Front Foothills (55-65 mph). Snow Mid Week: Models show this trough splitting into two waves. This pattern is favoring the bulk of the moisture to Southwest MT. There's a 50-90% chance for 0.5" of moisture for Madison and Gallatin Counties Wednesday through Friday morning, and up to a 60% chance for 1" in the mountains. There is strong cooling aloft with this cold front passage late Wednesday and Thursday will quickly drop snow levels to lower elevations. Frontogenesis and weak CAPE along the front poses a risk for convective snow banding/squalls in Southwest MT. The combination of good moisture and strong forcing gives a 40-60% chance for 9" of snow for Raynolds and Targhee Pass, and along Highway 191 between Big Sky and West Yellowstone. One area to watch will be for the Gallatin and Madison River valleys. Forecast soundings show a rapid change from rain to snow along the front, and heavy snow rates combined with this front moving through at night time can quickly accumulate snow in those valleys. So far there's a 20-50% chance for 6" of snow for the Bozeman/Gallatin Gateway area and Highway 287 in Madison County. Wet moderate to heavy snow can pose a risk to the infrastructure as well. We will continue to monitor impacts in that region. Precipitation amounts across North-Central MT is lower, so probabilities for snow is less. There's a up to a 30-60% chance for 1" of snow at lower elevations. However, depending on how the northern wave of the split trough tracks, the Hi-line could see higher moisture amounts (low confidence). Snowfall amounts for the Continental Divide and Central MT mountains look to be more minor at passes. There's a 60-80% chance for 4" of snow at Marias and Kings Hill Pass and a 30-50% chance for 6". -Wilson && .AVIATION... 14/00Z TAF Period Isolated showers continue through the evening across the region. It is hard to pin point where these showers will develop, therefore it was kept out of some of the TAF sites for now. Dry weather moves in overnight and into Tuesday. Breezy west/southwest winds develop across the region late Tuesday morning. -Wilson && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 38 58 42 59 / 20 0 0 30 CTB 36 53 33 54 / 20 0 0 10 HLN 35 61 38 58 / 20 10 0 60 BZN 31 61 35 60 / 20 0 0 60 WYS 24 47 27 45 / 50 10 10 80 DLN 29 57 35 56 / 20 0 0 50 HVR 37 64 38 62 / 30 0 0 10 LWT 34 60 36 58 / 20 10 0 50 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls  629 FXUS63 KAPX 140245 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1045 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Ongoing flooding may worsen with additional rain and storms tonight. Highest rainfall expected south of M-72. - Severe thunderstorm chances tonight and again Tuesday evening/Tuesday night with primary hazards of damaging winds and large hail. - Additional rounds of rain and mild temperatures through this week before turning cold late this weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1045 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Current forecast theme remains in good standing. Warm frontal boundary draped over the southern reaches of the region will remain the focus for convection as we head through the evening into tonight. Better instability remains to our west, with vigorous convection underway across north-central into northeast Wisconsin. Strengthening low level jet will drive an expanding instability axis into areas along and south of M-72. This particular region will be the primary focus for deeper convection, while more efficient stratiform rainfall occurs elsewhere. Severe potential trends are tending to favor southern and western reaches of the APX footprint, with primary hazards being hail and gusty winds (some of which could have an amplified impact with water-logged soils compromising root integrity on trees). The biggest story from this episode of convection is most certainly the flooding potential. Two different modes of flooding may materialize tonight. For areas north of M-32, lighter but still efficient stratiform rainfall on saturated soils and what is left of the snowpack may still lead to elevated water levels... including the highly sensitive Cheboygan River basin in far northern lower Michigan, along with the Chain of Lakes watershed in northwest lower. In general, this area could see 0.50 to 1.25" of rain by Tuesday morning. The farther south one goes (M-32 and south), the potential for repeated rounds of thunderstorms increases considerably. Torrential rainfall rates may drive a potentially higher end impact flash flooding event, as soils will fail to absorb all that water. Low lying and flood prone areas may be subject to rapid inundation from floodwaters in the event that the worst case scenario arises... which would be rainfall in excess of 2.50" in a short period of time. In addition... with the placement of this rainfall potentially encompassing large portions of the Manistee and Au Sable watersheds, river level rises may be in order again... even with these rivers already exceeding record levels. Much to monitor tonight. Rainfall looks to exit across the board into Tuesday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 450 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Pattern Synopsis: Southwest mid/upper-level flow will remain draped across the heart of the CONUS through the middle of the week as embedded waves progress trough the main flow. In turn, boundaries laid across portions of the Great Lakes and Midwest will wave north and south across the region as rounds of convection work through. A more amplified shortwave will progress overhead during the second half of the week, followed by brief ridging Friday before a strong, late- season trough digs across the Great Lakes this weekend. Forecast Details: Primary forecast concern in the short term is expected widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms tonight and their impact on ongoing flooding across much of northern Michigan. Current confidence based on latest high-res guidance and radar trends is that storms current firing across portions of Wisconsin will mature and work across the lake south of our area, working to limit higher rainfall potential to a degree across portions of our area. This is due to limited transport/support for an additional line of storms that is expected to form across southern Minnesota and track across the lake into northern Michigan later this evening and tonight. While this will provide our widespread rain/storm chances, expectation is that many areas will be limited to around 0.5-1" of additional rainfall as opposed to much higher amounts with a stronger line of storms working across our area. The exception will potentially be areas south of M-72, and especially south of M-55. Our far southern counties have the best chance of seeing rainfall amounts in excess of 1"+ with the potential for localized amounts of 2"+ should strong storms track across that area. Regardless of amounts, additional rainfall tonight will exacerbate ongoing flooding across the area -- the magnitude/widespread nature of which is impressive for the Northwoods. Specifically, the Au Sable River near Red Oak and the Manistee River near Sherman are forecast to go into major flood stage shortly this afternoon/evening. A few strong storms, especially across far southwest portions of the CWA, will be possible later this evening and tonight. The primary hazards with any strong storms will be damaging winds, large hail, and low chances for a tornado. Additional severe storms will be possible Tuesday evening into Tuesday night with similar hazards possible. Looking ahead, additional rain chances and mild temperatures will continue through the end of the week into this weekend. The aforementioned strong trough will likely tank temperatures late this weekend back down into the 30s and 40s for highs on Sunday with overnight lows in the 20s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 725 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Another round of showers/embedded thunderstorms and MVFR to IFR producing low cigs/areas of mist expected to develop this evening. While showers end early Tuesday, low clouds and mist will take until late morning and afternoon to lift/scour out. Some gusty winds and brief periods of heavy rain are possible with any stronger storms tonight. Otherwise, winds will remain light. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for MIZ016>018-020>036- 041-042-086>088-095-096-099. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...HAD DISCUSSION...DJC AVIATION...MSB  640 FXUS61 KOKX 140252 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1052 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation discussion updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Well above normal temperatures forecast through the rest of the work week. Near-record highs expected Tuesday through Thursday with daily chances for showers and possible thunderstorms. 2) Strong cold front Sunday with temperatures returning to near to slightly below normal Sunday night and Monday. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... We will continue a remarkable warming trend through Friday. Near-record highs are expected Tuesday through Thursday, with the warmest day on Wednesday. Even Friday will continue the well-above average trend in temperatures. Tue-Thu highs will be in the mid/upper-80s in NE NJ, NYC metro, and southern sections of the Lower Hudson Valley. A few locations could even see a few temperature readings touching 90 on Wednesday. These warm temperatures are a good 25-30 degrees above normal for this time if year. The highest confidence for reaching 90 degrees will be across portions of NE NJ. If this were to occur, parts of the area could see a moderate heat risk. This means, heat could become an issue for those who are sensitive to heat, especially those without proper cooling/hydration. As you move further east and along the coastal locations, temperatures will be significantly cooler with highs in the 70s. All this warm weather is aided in large part by anomalous heights aloft (500mb heights around 575-580 dam) and 850 mb temps more than 10C above average. While we have mainly zonal flow aloft, several subtle shortwaves embedded in the zonal flow will pass to our north through the week's end. This will lead to a series of passing weak lows to our north that bring daily chances for showers this evening through Thursday. Chances remain quite low on Tuesday but better on Wednesday. Thunderstorms appear isolated on Tuesday with most instability situated too far north, but Wednesday seems to have a better shot at seeing thunderstorms. The latest guidance shows more instability on Wednesday and given its our warmest day of the week, daytime heating with help with this. The main issue we have for thunderstorms on Wednesday is a lack of strong lift. .KEY MESSAGE 2... A strong cold front is forecast to move through the region during Sunday, while there are still some timing difference, consenus is for a cold frontal passage Sunday afternoon. Showers will accompany the passage, with a chance of thunder as well. After a prolonged period of above normal temperatures, the cold front passage will return temperatures to near to slightly below normal Sunday night through Monday night. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure well offshore remains through the TAF period. Mostly VFR forecast expected through the TAF period. However, there are some exceptions. First with some rain showers moving across first half of the night which could make for brief MVFR visibilities. Second, MVFR/IFR fog will be possible late tonight into early Tuesday morning for some terminals, particularly more eastern terminals. Have a TEMPO group just for KGON and KISP but other terminals could develop fog as well. Regarding winds, they are decreasing from the SW mainly near 5-10 kt with some gusts to near 20-25 kt. However, the gusts are becoming less as winds overall are still expected to diminish overnight. The wind direction will become more variable going into overnight. SW winds forecast are near 5-7 kts Tuesday morning. Winds increase Tuesday afternoon out of the SW to near 10-15 kt with gusts near 20-25 kt. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Fog possible at KJFK early Tuesday morning, 08-12Z, MVFR to IFR possible. Timing of gusts could be off by 1-3 hours. For Tuesday afternoon, peak gusts to near 30 kt possible. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... Tuesday night: Mainly VFR. Possible showers/tstms early with brief MVFR possible. SW wind gusts near 20 kt will be diminishing. Wednesday through Saturday: Mainly VFR but with chance of afternoon and evening showers/tstms each day, mainly NW of the NYC metros, with brief flight cat reduction to MVFR. SW winds could gust 15-20kt each afternoon Wed-Thu as well. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... OCean seas remain elevated tonight therefore the Small Craft Advisory continues. Conditions subside tonight though, first across the western ocean and into late tonight east of Fire Island Inlet. By Tuesday AM sub advisory conditions will prevail across all waters. Sub-SCA conditions will then remain through Thursday. Sub advisory conditions are expected on all the waters Thursday night through Saturday night. && .CLIMATE... Daily record high temperatures that could be reached: Wed, April 15: KEWR: 88/1960 KBDR: 81/1960 KNYC: 87/1941 KLGA: 86/1941 KJFK: 80/2006 KISP: 78/2024 Daily record high minimum temperatures that could be reached: Tue, April 14: KEWR: 62/2014 KBDR: 54/2023 KNYC: 70/2023 KLGA: 67/2023 KJFK: 55/2023 KISP: 54/2022 Wed, April 15: KEWR: 60/2023 KBDR: 53/2012 KNYC: 67/1941 KLGA: 64/1941 KJFK: 58/1960 KISP: 56/2023 Thu, April 16: KEWR: 64/2002 KBDR: 53/2002 KNYC: 69/2002 KLGA: 68/2002 KJFK: 57/2002 KISP: 55/2012 Fri, April 17: KEWR: 68/2002 KBDR: 57/2002 KNYC: 74/2002 KLGA: 73/2002 KJFK: 60/2002 KISP: 61/2002 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ355. && $$ DISCUSSION...BC/BR/MET AVIATION...JM MARINE...BR/MET  437 FXUS63 KJKL 140256 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 1056 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Unseasonably warm conditions are expected for much of the next week. - The warmest days are forecast to be Tuesday through Saturday. New daily record high temperatures are possible, if not likely, on the warmest days. - Small shower and thunderstorm chances return on Tuesday. Additional showers/storms are possible Thursday and Thursday night and again into the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1056 PM EDT MON APR 13 2026 All is quiet across eastern Kentucky this evening as temperatures dip back into the 60s over the ridges and into 50s through many of the valleys. A little fog is forming in the upper reaches of the Cumberland River Valley where rain fell earlier this evening. Through the remainder of the night, look for the surface pressure gradient to gradually tighten overnight, likely leading to renewed occasional mixing. This should keep valleys from cooling off too much more and in some cases temperatures may actually rise later in the night. There is still a low chance for some more very light rainfall in the morning with a subtle disturbance, primarily after the daybreak as suggested by the lower resolution models. (The CAMs still aren't really latching on the idea yet). UPDATE Issued at 735 PM EDT MON APR 13 2026 An area of lingering light rain over far southeastern Kentucky is gradually diminishing at update time and should depart by ~1Z. Once the rain ends, fair weather can be expected for the remainder of the overnight with temperatures falling back into the 50s to near 60F. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 430 PM EDT MON APR 13 2026 Late this afternoon, an upper level ridge was centered in the eastern Gulf and extended across parts of Central America. An upper level low was centered in the Hudson Bay vicinity while an upper level trough extended across western portions of the Conus. This pattern is resulting in southwest flow aloft across eastern KY and the OH Valley region. At the surface, a ridge of high pressure was centered in parts of the Atlantic and extended into the Southeast to Southern Appalachians. Showers were moving across southern portions of the area at this time as well as over Elliott County. Rainfall has ranged from a few sprinkles or a traces in southern portions of the area to as much as third of an inch or so north of the Mountain Parkway. Temperatures as if 4 PM were mainly in the 70s with a few 60s where some of the heavier showers were occurring. Southwest to west southwest flow should dominate through the short term period as upper level ridging remains centered in the eastern Gulf into parts of the southeast and the current western Conus trough moves into the High Plains and nears the Central Conus. This evening and tonight, as the disturbance that is aiding the shower activity across the region moves east of the area this evening, shower chances will diminish and low and mid level clouds should thin at least for a few hours in the evening to the overnight per model time height sections. This should allow for valleys to decouple as the clouds thin and a moderate magnitude ridge/valley split. Lower 50s should occur in the normally colder valleys while ridges settle near 60s. If there is sufficient clearing where some of the heavier rain fell, some fog could form, but confidence was not high enough to include at this point given the recent dryness. Another disturbance in southwest flow between the upper ridge centered over the eastern Gulf to portions of the southeast and an upper trough that moves across portions of the western Conus should approach late tonight and cross the area on Tuesday. In advance of it, an uptick in the LLJ should occur late tonight into early on Tuesday. This could result in shower activity toward dawn, especially in the northwest, though recent CAM runs and have minimal activity late tonight and on Tuesday for that matter. The past two GFS runs have more in the way of activity for that matter while the ECMWF also is more scant with activity. The neutral height tendencies if not slight rises on Tuesday support the idea of minimal activity. For now isolated to scattered pops were carried for Tuesday. With less shower activity and southwest flow leading to warm air advection, temperatures should warm compared to today with widespread highs in the 80 anticipated. Ridging dominates for Tuesday night withe less potential for low and mid level clouds. This should support an even wider ridge valley split of low to mid 50s eastern/southeastern valleys to low to mid 60s on ridgetops and more open terrain locations. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 507 PM EDT MON APR 13 2026 An amplified long wave pattern continues through early next week. A strong and persistent ridge will remain planted from central Mexico to Florida through early this weekend. This feature will then pivot more southeast by early next week, as an onslaught of eastern Pacific energy throughout this week finally dislodges it. Model agreement is decent early on, but then becomes less, with greater differences showing up by this weekend and into early next week. Eastern Kentucky will continue to find itself under the influence of the strong ridging to our southeast through Saturday. Well above normal temperatures, nearing record status at times, will remain in place. Highs each day will average in the mid to upper 80s, with a few low 90s possible, especially Wednesday and Friday/Saturday. Lows will average in the 50s and 60s each night. The next decent chance of rain will move in Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, as a well-defined short wave trough tracks east from the middle Mississippi Valley through the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. PoPs will peak in the 40-60% range. Unfortunately, QPF continues to look lean, with most locations likely seeing a tenth of an inch or less, although any thunderstorms could locally overachieve. A much deeper trough will move from the Plains to the eastern CONUS this weekend into early next week, with a surface cold front finally making it across the Commonwealth. QPF could be more substantial and beneficial with this system; however, will await further model trends before getting too optimistic. PoPs peak in the 50-60% range Saturday night, with some chances extending into Sunday, depending on the timing. This cold front will also bring an end to the heatwave, with highs retreating to mainly the 60s for both Sunday and Monday. Some frost potential may follow for Sunday night and perhaps Monday night in the valleys, depending on model trends. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT MON APR 13 2026 VFR prevailed at TAF issuance. Light rain over far southeastern Kentucky affecting 1A6 and I35 should depart within an hour. Winds will slacken to variable to southwest around 6 kts or less overnight. However, winds will increase aloft as a disturbance approaches after about 04Z which will result in a marginal LLWS threat through daybreak. Some isolated shower activity is possible on Tuesday but confidence in impacts and timing was too low to retain in the latest TAF issuance. Southwest winds at 5 to 15KT with gusts of 15 to 25KT should return for most of the daylight hours on Tuesday, strongest winds west of I-75 and near/north of I-64. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...GEERTSON SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...JKL AVIATION...GEERTSON