894 FXUS63 KBIS 140304 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1004 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Medium to high chances for showers through tonight. - Mainly dry and warmer Tuesday and Wednesday. - Wide range in temperatures from northwest to southeast Thursday as a cold front pushes into the state. - Significant cool down for the end of the week, with medium chances for rain and snow. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1002 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 At 930 PM CDT, the most concentrated and heaviest shower activity was located over central North Dakota, directly downstream of a 700 mb vort max. A few thunderstorms have been embedded in this activity at times, but no lightning has been observed in the last half hour. With SPC mesoanalysis showing only around 100 J/kg MUCAPE, the risk of thunderstorms appears to be winding down. Another arc of more persistent rain tied to a 500 mb low was pivoting over southwest North Dakota, and the broader area encompassing the two lies under the left exit region of a 300 mb level jet. The mid to upper level forcing will glide northeastward through the night, carrying the rain with it. Latest model guidance continues to show rain could mix with or change over to snow in the Turtle Mountains and Devils Lake Basin areas early Tuesday morning, with little to impacts expected within our forecast area. UPDATE Issued at 702 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 The risk for a severe thunderstorm in southwest North Dakota has greatly diminished as the stronger updrafts in northwest South Dakota have taken on a direct eastward trajectory. Most of south central North Dakota should also be in the clear from severe storms, but will still need to monitor the South Dakota convection as it could reach a kinematic environment that could spawn an elevated left-moving supercell later this evening. But that would be a reasonable worst-case scenario, low probability outcome. Isolated non-severe thunderstorms will remain possible across southwest and south central North Dakota through the evening. The fog forecast for this evening into Tuesday morning could prove to be challenging. Dense fog had been plaguing parts of southwest North Dakota for several hours this afternoon, but is now finally starting to lift with the arrival of more persistent rainfall. HRRR/RAP guidance would indicate that fog could develop outside of rain showers across much of western and central North Dakota later tonight. Will leave a patchy fog mention over much of the area and refine later as needed. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 158 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Chances for showers and thunderstorms through tonight, with a low potential for a few strong to marginally severe storms far south late this afternoon and this evening. Drying out Tuesday, warm Wednesday, then a significant cooldown late in the workweek and into the weekend. Latest satellite imagery and upper level analysis shows upper level circulation along the MT/ID border with additional shortwave energy lifting from WY into southeast MT. Showers and scattered thunderstorms have been on the increase over Northeast WY into southeast MT over the past hour or so. This has resulted in steep low and mid-level lapse rates over this area. Through the remainder of the afternoon as the shortwave propagates east northeast, expect this environment to work into the western Dakotas. SPC has issued a MCD for portions of northwest SD into southeast MT and northeast WY. The problem is, the farther north and east you go, the more stable the environment. We expect convection, some strong, will approach southwest ND this afternoon. The main question is how far can it progress into the forecast area, characterized by a more stable lower level environment, before dissipating. The main threats with the high based convection will be strong wind gusts to 60 mph. Better chances will remain south of the border, but an isolated strong to marginally severe storm can not be ruled out late this afternoon through the evening along the South Dakota border in the southwest and south central. As we then go through the evening and overnight as the mid-upper level circulation tracks from far southwest ND through east central ND. This will support scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms tracking through the forecast area tonight. Late tonight, as the precipitation lifts into northeast ND, there it the potential for a bit of mixed precip around the Turtle Mountains. At this time the warm temperatures should inhibit any significant snow accumulation, but a little accumulation on grassy surfaces can not be ruled out. For the most part warming Tuesday and Wednesday with mostly dry conditions. Our given NBM guidance gave us several hours of splotchy slight chance pops on Tuesday over western ND. There does appear to be a small potential for an afternoon shower or possible thunderstorm. we opted to include a broad brush slight chance pops over the west Tuesday afternoon. It's possible that as we go into the evening, we could see slight chances propagate into central ND. For now we will limit the slight chance pops to mainly along and west of the Highway 83 corridor, Tuesday afternoon. Wednesday looks to be warm and mild. We could see afternoon humidities drop into the 20-25 percent range over southwest ND but winds look to be rather light out of the southwest Wednesday afternoon. In the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe an upper level low in the eastern Pacific drops south and moves onto the Pacific Northwest coast by Thursday. This will result in surface cyclogenesis in the lee of the northern and central Rockies and by Thursday the surface low ejects onto the Plains. At this time it looks like the energy in this upper trough splits with a piece tracking north of the forecast and another tracking well south of the area. Current temperature guidance on Thursday suggest a 30 degree or so difference in temperatures between the far north (mid to upper 40s) and the southern James River Valley (Mid to upper 70s). Should we reach the mid 70s across the south central on Thursday, we could see a period low humidities, possibly into the low to mid 20s in the far south central east into the southern JRV. Winds should not be an too strong during this timeframe. As the upper level trough swings through the northern Plains we will see a period of precipitation, most likely rain initially, then changing to snow. With the split flow pattern there remains quite a bit of uncertainty as to how much qpf we see. Right now, the NBM 24 hour probability of a quarter inch of liquid from Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon remains low across all of western and central ND. Whether that falls as rain, snow or a mix, impacts from qpf amounts look to be low. There will be a period of strong wind with this system, followed by much colder temperatures late in the workweek and into at least the first half of the weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1002 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Areas of showers will continue across southern and central North Dakota through this evening, ending from southwest to northeast overnight into Tuesday morning. Mostly expecting MVFR visibility associated with the showers, but some IFR is possible. There is also a risk for an isolated thunderstorm late this evening. Patchy fog could develop outside of areas of persistent rain overnight into Tuesday morning. Ceilings are variable across western and central North Dakota late this evening. The general expectation is that IFR to LIFR ceilings will spread across most of western and central North Dakota through tonight, improving from west to east mid Tuesday morning through the early afternoon. Winds are expected to remain around 10 kts or less through the forecast period, primarily at an easterly direction this evening and becoming westerly on Tuesday. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Hollan DISCUSSION...TWH AVIATION...Hollan  264 FXUS64 KOUN 140313 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1013 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1011 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 - This week will continue to feature an active pattern with chances for showers and storms most days, some strong to severe. - Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will return several days this week, especially across portions of northwestern and far western Oklahoma. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 128 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Continue to watch eastward progression of the dryline, currently moving east across western OK. Although some uncertainty remains as to how far east it will go before retreating back west this evening. Several models have it running along I-44 across southwest into central OK then north along I-35 by late this afternoon. This is likely to be the focus for any convective development, however there appears to be a lack of strong convergence along with dryline this afternoon as well as a lack of strong mid-level forcing. Although there is a few minor disturbances in the flow that may aid in some isolated activity from central into southwest OK by late this afternoon. The best chance may be to our south with isolated storms moving north toward the Red River this evening before dissipating. However, any storm that does develop will be in a favorable environment for supercell thunderstorms. To the west of the dryline, and especially across northwest OK, where there continues to be a lack of any substantial rainfall to help the transition of the vegetation from dormant to green-up, Fire Weather concerns remain. A Reg Flag Warning continues this afternoon into the early evening hours for that area. As we go through the overnight, the dryline will retreat to the west with an increasing low level jet. Toward Tuesday morning could see uptick in isentropic lift to aid in the development of a few showers and storms, mainly across southern OK into north TX. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 128 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 For Tuesday a rather diffuse dryline will be located across western OK and western north Texas southward into southwest TX. To the west of this line very poor overnight RH recovery will set the stage for elevated to near critical fire weather conditions across northwest OK by late morning, continuing into the early evening hours. Very warm and windy conditions develop by late morning as RH values drop below 20%. Will continue with the Fire Weather Watch for Tuesday afternoon and evening. As for convection, after the morning activity dissipates, much of the day is expected to be dry before additional convection develops by late afternoon. At that time models try to tighten the dryline up across western OK and an embedded wave in the subtropical jet moves northeast across the area. This should be sufficient to get convective development along the dryline across western OK southward into western north Texas. CAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg and deep layer shear of 40-50kts should be sufficient for supercell storms capable of very large hail, damaging winds as well as a tornado or two. This activity will work north and east of the area by late evening. Some models do show another area of convection developing well south of the area, but may hold together overnight and move back into Oklahoma toward Wednesday morning. If this does occur, a few of the storms could be strong to low end severe. Main trough then shifts east across the Southern Plains on Wednesday. As this occurs a dryline will tighten up across western OK and western north Texas with a Pacific front entering northwest OK by afternoon. Although some questions remain with regards to how the morning convection may impact afternoon development, but pockets of moderate instability and favorable shear would be sufficient that any storms that do form to become severe. Severe risk may linger across the eastern third, including our southeast OK counties, overnight. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 206 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Brief height rises in the wake of the shortwave Thursday may provide a break from storms. However, with another trough digging into the western CONUS, southwesterly flow will quickly return Thursday night and an increased sub-tropical jet may bring late night showers and storms. As the next shortwave ejects eastward towards the Plains, showers and storms will return again Friday into Saturday morning. A cold frontal passage by Saturday will bring an end to shower and storm chances for next weekend as it scours the moisture and the flow aloft becomes more zonal. Timing of the next wave may change and trends in timing will continue to be monitored. Fire weather conditions may persist through the end of the week and into the weekend, especially where fuels continue to remain driest in western Oklahoma and into western north Texas.&& .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1104 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026 MVFR conditions are currently observed spreading north/west this evening. These conditions are anticipated to lift by mid-morning Monday. LLWS is a concern late tonight and again tomorrow night. Will be monitoring the marginal risk of severe storms that are possible tomorrow afternoon and evening. Thus far, there is significant uncertainty on storm development and have left out of TAFs for now. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1011 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 MVFR ceilings expected to develop later tonight into Tuesday morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected. Showers/storms will be possible late Tuesday afternoon and evening. Breezy south to southwest winds are expected to continue overnight into Tuesday. LLWS is also expected at several TAF sites overnight into early Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 67 83 63 79 / 10 50 60 70 Hobart OK 65 87 61 84 / 10 50 50 50 Wichita Falls TX 67 84 64 82 / 20 50 80 60 Gage OK 60 89 56 83 / 0 20 30 20 Ponca City OK 68 87 62 80 / 10 40 50 70 Durant OK 68 81 66 78 / 10 30 50 80 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for OKZ004-005-009-010-014-021. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....23 AVIATION...25  634 FXUS64 KBRO 140321 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1021 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1013 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Key Messages: - Breezy conditions will continue this week. - A moderate risk of rip currents will likely to prevail through the week. - Temperatures will continue to warm through the week, with a cool down late this weekend. - Unsettled weather will return this weekend in association with a cold front moving through Texas. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1013 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 High pressure over the Gulf into the southeastern US will maintain warm, breezy, and dry conditions through the week. Temperatures will continue to warm, reaching the 90s for much of the region by Thursday. Coastal areas will remain in the upper 70s into the 80s. As we head into the weekend a cold front will move through Texas bringing with it another chance of rain and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon through Monday. The aforementioned front will move through Deep South Texas on Sunday which will also be the day for our highest rain chances (35-50%). Cooler temperatures are expected in wake of the front, with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s on Sunday and mid 80s on Monday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 611 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 While VFR conditions will prevail early evening, after 2/3Z ceilings will fall with MVFR conditions at all aerodromes. Winds will remain somewhat elevated overnight with breezy conditions expected on Tuesday. && .MARINE... Issued at 1013 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Generally favorable marine conditions are expected on the waters off the lower Texas coast with moderate winds and wave heights. Could see some caution conditions each afternoon, mainly on the Laguna Madre and nearshore waters due to a locally enhanced pressure gradient. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 73 86 73 87 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 70 88 69 89 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 74 91 74 92 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 72 92 72 92 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 73 79 74 79 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 71 85 71 85 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...68 LONG TERM....68 AVIATION...68  150 FXUS66 KLOX 140324 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 824 PM PDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .SYNOPSIS...13/755 PM. Showers over the area have diminished, with just a few isolated light showers this evening. Dry and warmer weather is expected for the remainder of this week. Gusty northerly winds will affect much of the area on Thursday, shifting to northeast and becoming focused over Los Angeles and Ventura Counties on Friday. && .SHORT TERM (MON-THU)...13/823 PM. ***UPDATE*** A cold upper low moved over the area today, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms to the area. LA County was by far the most affected by these storms, with plentiful lightning and brief bursts of heavy rainfall. However, these stronger storms were not widespread, mainly affecting the San Fernando Valley and the mountains. Higher totals ranged from 0.15 to 0.55 inch over the San Gabriels, with 0.15 to 0.20 inch over the San Fernando and Santa Clarita Valleys. Much lighter totals occurred further west, with little to no rain over the northern counties. Gusty westerly winds are affecting many areas behind the storm system this evening, with northwest to north winds over Southwestern Santa Barbara County. The winds will subside overnight, but expect a repeat of gusty Sundowner winds, somewhat stronger than tonight but likely still below Advisory level. In addition, gusty southwest to west winds will affect the interior passes and canyons into the Antelope Valley. Today's highs were below normal, with mid to upper 60s along the coast and valleys, and around 60 over the far interior. Expect a warming and drying trend Tuesday into Wednesday, highs rising 4 to 8 degrees for most areas on Tuesday, with an additional few degrees of warming on Wednesday. .LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...13/314 AM. An inside slider is expected to work its way down the state line on Thursday, followed by dry NW to N flow on Friday. Thursday morning will feature onshore flow to the east and offshore flow from the north. On Friday there will be weak offshore flow from both the north and east in the morning. There will not be much wind on Thursday, but Thursday night and Friday decent north flow will develop in the mtns with advisory level gusts likely through the I-5 corridor and the Santa Barbara county mountains. Max temps will not change much on Thursday, but the offshore flow will bring 2 to 4 degrees of warming to most of the area on Friday. On Saturday the upper flow turn westerly. There will still be some offshore flow at the sfc, but with no upper support it will only generate sub advisory canyon winds. Max temps will respond to the continued offshore flow and 3 to 5 degrees of additional warm seems likely. This will bring max temps up into the upper 70s to mid 80s for most of csts/vlys which is 4 to 8 degrees above normal. Mdls are struggling a bit with the pattern for Sunday. All mdls show a large upper low spinning somewhere to the NW but there is massive disagreement on the location. For now the forecast is similar to Saturday with just a little cooling across the csts as the offshore flow weakens. && .AVIATION...14/0206Z. At 2138Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer or inversion. Overall, high confidence in 00Z TAF package as VFR conditions are expected for most sites through the period. There is a 30-40% chance for MVFR cigs at KPRB after 10Z. KLAX...High confidence in 00Z TAF as VFR conditions are expected through the period. No significant easterly wind component is expected. KBUR...High confidence in 00Z TAF as VFR conditions are expected through the period. && .MARINE...13/1208 PM. For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Friday, high confidence in a combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas. On Thursday and Thursday night, there is a 30-40% chance of GALE force winds. For Saturday, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds. For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Thursday, high confidence in SCA level winds during the afternoon and evening hours. On Friday and Saturday, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours. For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through this evening, high confidence in SCA level winds. For Tuesday through Thursday, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel, but only a 20-30% chance of SCA level winds elsewhere. For Friday through Saturday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 1 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 645-655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 4 AM PDT Tuesday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT Tuesday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Ciliberti/Rorke AVIATION...PHILLIPS/RAT MARINE...RAT SYNOPSIS...Ciliberti weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox  246 FXUS64 KLUB 140330 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1030 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1024 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 - A dryline will bring chances for severe storms to areas off the Caprock Tuesday, with dry and windy conditions west of the escarpment. - Critical fire danger is expected Tuesday afternoon for western portions of the Caprock which have not seen beneficial rainfall over the past week. - Storm chances continue through early Friday, mainly off the Caprock, with drier and cooler weather expected for the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Tuesday night) Issued at 1024 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Water vapor imagery late Monday evening highlights a belt of moist and unsettled southwest flow aloft in place over the West TX region, a pattern which will persist through the short term period as a compact mid/upper level low moves over the Four Corners. The dryline will continue to retreat westward through the rest of the overnight, and will position roughly from Denver City to Plainview to Memphis by sunrise. Overnight storms look unlikely, but we could still see an isolated cell or two develop over the southeastern Rolling Plains during the early morning hours as a modest low level jet focuses within a pocket of elevated instability. The dryline will mix eastward after daybreak Tuesday, especially on the Caprock where moisture will be quite shallow. Another warm and breezy to low end windy day will result west of the dryline as deep mixing taps into ~35kt flow at 700mb and up to 65kt at 500mb, which combined with the warm conditions will result in critical fire danger on the Caprock for areas which have not benefited from rainfall over the past week or so. Despite the strengthening flow aloft, the dryline is expected to slow its eastward progression once it moves east of the Caprock Escarpment given deeper moisture in place there, with dewpoints likely to remain above 50F over most of the Rolling Plains and SE TX Panhandle Tuesday afternoon. In general, it still appears the dryline circulation itself will be relatively weak Tuesday. However, convective temperatures will be easily within reach, and slightly better large scale forcing for ascent compared to Monday should result in a bit higher coverage of storms along and east of the dryline on Tuesday afternoon. Within the moist sector, forecast soundings depict MLCAPE values near or above 1500 J/kg, along with bulk shear magnitudes nearing 50kt. This will be sufficient for a few severe storms Tuesday afternoon over the Rolling Plains and SE TX Panhandle capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts, although this should be a relatively early show with strong flow aloft kicking storms to our east by early evening. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 1024 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Wednesday is expected to be a relatively quiet and warm day as the above-mentioned upper trough exits into the central plains states, with dry westerly surface flow pushing most appreciable near-surface moisture and associated storm chances to our east. That being said, a subset of guidance does keep the dryline barely over our eastern zones, so will maintain low storm chances over the eastern edge of the Rolling Plains through late Wednesday given uncertainty in the dryline positioning. Southwest flow aloft returns by Thursday as the next upper trough deepens over the Great Basin, which will bring enough near-surface moisture northward to result in mainly nocturnal storm chances Thursday night into early Friday courtesy of a strengthening low level jet. However, this period of southwest flow aloft and associated precipitation chances will be relatively short- lived given the progressive nature of the upper trough, which is progged to quickly shift eastward with the trough axis set to be over the Dakotas by early Saturday. This evolution will send a cold front southward through our area sometime in the late Friday to Saturday period, with good consensus among models indicating a drier and cooler period through at least the first half of the weekend. Return flow looks likely to reestablish Sunday and beyond with ensembles in decent agreement bringing low chances for showers and storms back to the region by early next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 623 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Relatively strong southwest winds will continue for a few more hours this evening before weakening slightly after sunset. Some transient LLWS is possible overnight mainly at KCDS, but with magnitudes expected to be too weak for TAF mention. Surface winds will then increase once again by mid-morning Tuesday. Some MVFR stratus will also likely develop Tuesday morning, but should remain south of the TAF sites. VFR is expected to prevail otherwise. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1024 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Strong southwest winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 45 mph are expected across most of the Caprock on Tuesday afternoon. Combined with RH values in the 15 to 20 percent range, RFTI values of 3 to 5 appear likely over the southwestern TX Panhandle and western portions of the Caprock on Tuesday. Critical fire weather conditions are therefore expected in this area given the lack of recent beneficial rainfall compared to locations farther east. Therefore, a Red Flag Warning is in effect from noon to 8 PM Tuesday for the SW TX Panhandle and western Caprock. A Fire Danger Statement is in effect for areas farther east near the edge of the Caprock where slightly higher RH is expected in closer proximity to the dryline. Areas off the Caprock (especially the Rolling Plains) are expected to remain relatively humid east of the dryline, and fire weather concerns will be relatively low for these locations. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ021>025- 027>030-033-034-039. Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ021>023- 027>029. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...30  544 FXUS66 KSEW 140332 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 827 PM PDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Showers persisting tonight. The next weather system will move into the area on Tuesday, bringing lowland rain, mountain snow, and breezy winds to western Washington. Precipitation will linger into Wednesday, with drier weather expected Thursday into the weekend. Cold, near-freezing morning lows are expected for portions of the south Sound and Chehalis Valley on Thursday. Chances of precipitation return late in the weekend into early next week. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Plenty of clouds on latest satellite while there are still some lingering showers on latest radar. The largest patch is currently over Snohomish and Skagit counties but there also appears to be a new wave of activity making its way onto the Olympic Peninsula. This fits well with inherited forecast showing activity ramping up overnight as incoming frontal system draws closer to W WA. That said, since current forecast is handling conditions well, will not need any evening updates tonight. For additional forecast details, please refer to the Previous Discussion section below. 18 From Previous Discussion...Showery and unsettled conditions will continue through the remainder of the day today. Cloudy conditions and afternoon highs will generally be in the low to mid 50s across the area. The next system will then move into the area on Tuesday, bringing the next round of lowland rain, mountain snow, and breezy winds. Mountain snow will continue into Wednesday and isolated chances of thunderstorms will be possible in the wake of the system. Additional details on the hazards have been outlined below: Winds: Southerly winds will increase across western Washington through the morning hours on Tuesday. Wind gusts will generally be between 25-40 mph, though isolated gusts to 45 mph will be possible at times. With new foliage on trees, tree damage may be possible with any gusts between 35-45 mph. Winds will gradually ease area-wide again late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Mountain Snow: Snow levels will start out between 3000-4000 ft on Tuesday, but will fall to 1000-1500 ft by Wednesday, bringing accumulating snow for the mountains- especially for the Cascade passes. The heaviest snow will occur Tuesday night into Wednesday morning and will be for elevations generally above 2500 ft. Snow will linger through the day Wednesday, before tapering late Wednesday night into Thursday. Rain: This system will bring the next round of lowland rain to the region. The most likely rainfall amounts for the interior lowlands look to be between 0.50-1 inch, with the typical shadowed areas generally expected to see a little less- between 0.25-0.50 inches. Areas along the coast will see the most rain, with rainfall amounts generally expected to range between 1-1.25 inches from Tuesday morning through Wednesday night. Thunderstorms: A slight chance of thunderstorms will be possible in the cool post-frontal airmass on Wednesday. The most likely areas for any thunderstorm development will be along the Pacific Coast. Any isolated thunderstorms that do develop may produce dangerous lightning, gusty winds, small hail, and brief heavy downpours. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Drier conditions are expected the second half of the week with high pressure building back into the region. Clearing skies overnight will allow for temperatures to dip into the low to mid 30s across much of the area by Thursday morning. Most likely spots to approach freezing will be areas around the south Sound and the Chehalis Valley- where frost will also be possible. Dry conditions will persist through Saturday as the ridge of high pressure moves overhead. Afternoon high temperatures will warm a few degrees each day- topping out in the upper 50s to low 60s across the region by Saturday. An upper level low will then approach the region on Sunday, bringing the return of shower chances to the region. Showers then look to linger into early next week. 14 && .AVIATION... Northwest flow becoming westerly tonight into Tuesday as an upper- low tracks along the BC coast. Most terminals remain VFR except those under the convergence zone over Snohomish County. Ceilings are beginning to slowly lower across the area this evening. Scattered/occasional MVFR cigs are expected through much of tonight before widespread rain begins to move in across the area tomorrow morning, which will bring more widespread MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibility. This will persist through the remainder of the TAF period. Winds south southwesterly 8 to 12 kt with occasional gusts 15 to 20 kt will remain like so through much of the night, with winds increasing after 18Z up to 15 to 25 kt with gusts 25 kt to 35 kt, primarily between 21Z Mon - 03Z Tue. Winds will begin to ease behind the frontal passage at the very end of the TAF period. KSEA...Low-end VFR cigs will continue to persist this evening, with period of scattered MVFR cigs possible overnight. Rain beings to move over the terminal 15-17Z after which ceilings will more consistently lower to MVFR with lowered visibility in moderate rain as well. S/SW winds 8 to 12 kt with gusts 15 to 25 kt will persist tonight, increasing after 18Z up to 15 to 20 kt with gusts 25 to 35 kt. Winds, rain, and ceilings all look to start improve towards the end of the period after 06Z Tue. 62 && .MARINE... Surface high pressure resides well offshore in the NE PAC. Onshore flow continues over the area waters as well for the small craft advisory in the Strait of Juan De Fuca for enhanced westerlies. A stronger frontal system is still on track to enter the area late tonight into Wednesday morning for breezy conditions and elevated seas. A small craft advisory remains in effect for all of the coastal water zones starting early Tuesday as S/SW winds increase ahead of the front. New SCAs have also been added for the inland water zones of Puget Sound, Admiralty Inlet, and the Northern Inland waters. Can't rule out the brief the potential for gale strength gusts, particularly in the strait. Coastal seas 4 to 6 ft tonight before increasing upward to 9 to 12 feet on Tuesday evening. Seas 8 to 10 ft through Thursday before decreasing by Friday to 3 to 5 feet. 41 && .HYDROLOGY... With rain moving into the area Tuesday into Wednesday, slight rises on area rivers will be possible. The Skokomish River is expected to rise into Action Stage with the additional precipitation. Snow levels will fall mid week to 1000-1500 ft, but no river flooding is expected at this time. 14 && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Winter Storm Warning from 11 AM Tuesday to 11 PM PDT Wednesday for Cascades of Pierce and Lewis Counties-Cascades of Snohomish and Northern King Counties-Cascades of Southern King County-Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit Counties. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Tuesday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Tuesday to 5 AM PDT Wednesday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm. && $$  066 FXUS65 KPIH 140332 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 932 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light snow in the central Idaho mountains north of Mackay and Galena Summit - Much heavier rain and snow begins Tuesday night and continues through Thursday night. Snow returning to Snake River plain and eastern Magic Valley on Thursday morning. - Windy to very windy Tuesday night through Thursday afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1247 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Tonight through Thu afternoon...A weak upper level trough is triggering some light showers and the persistent northwesterly flow is finally bringing colder temperatures back to eastern Idaho. Light snow ends prior to midnight except for the northern half of the ID-WY border, where it continues light snow through Tue afternoon. Then after midnight Tue night, a more vigorous and moisture- laden snow storm arrives and continues over the area into the extended period. Very high likelihood of precipitation, the main forecast problem will be the snow levels and how much of the area will have heavy snow. Right now, most of the Winter Weather Advisories will be in the highlands and mountains, but it would not take much colder air to produce Winter Storm Warnings. This first weak storm has enough cold air behind it to send Snake River plain and eastern Magic Valley temperatures below freezing, as in 20 to 30 degrees tonight. The second storm arrives very quickly on the heels of this storm, and temperatures have no chance to recover. Overnight lows will be slightly warmer, but still widespread 24 to 34. This is due to the second storm's cloud shield. Wed night is also sub-freezing for most, with temperatures down 1 to 3 deg F from the night before. High temperatures will still allow snow melt on Tue and Wed, but mountain locations on Thu afternoon will struggle to get above freezing. This cold front on Wed also packs some wind, currently expecting the wind to reach Advisory level for at least the Arco Desert- Mud Lake region, perhaps more locations. Wind is even stronger on Thu. So, overall, this may be one of the stronger winter storms we have had all season. Thu night through next Mon. By Thu night the snow is limited to the eastern half of the forecast area. Fri continues to see some light snow in higher elevations in the east and southeast highlands. It appears the storm clears out for the weekend, with Sun morning the next low starts affecting Custer County and the western edge. Temperatures behind this front are bitter for this time of year. Single digit lows in the central Idaho mountains, and lows in the Snake River plain/eastern Magic Valley in the lower to middle 20s. Not time to plant your garden yet. The temperatures bottom on Thu night and Fri night, then rebound to staying in the lower to middle 30s by Sat night due to cloud cover from the next incoming low. The warming trend continues through the weekend and Mon is where temperatures level off. This is due to the next low moving through the northern half of the forecast area and dropping rain and high elevation snow. Wind takes a while to turn calmer. Fri continues breezy to windy, then Sat is when it is more light to breezy. Afternoons continue breezy to borderline windy (20-25 mph) through the weekend and into Monday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 932 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Models show low level moisture becoming widespread across the Snake River Plain overnight. Probably too much wind for fog, but MVFR/IFR stratus almost certain. This stratus will probably mix out late morning with gusty conditions developing for afternoon. SUN will probably turn upvalley around midday for a couple hours before switching to a crosswind around mid afternoon. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Messick AVIATION...13  607 FXUS64 KBMX 140349 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1049 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1033 PM CDT MON APR 13 2026 - Fire danger will remain elevated through the week due to recent dryness, low relative humidity values, and increased winds at times. Outdoor burning is highly discouraged. - Near-record high temperatures are expected each day this week with no rain chances, causing drought conditions to worsen. && .DISCUSSION... (Tuesday through next Monday) Issued at 1033 PM CDT MON APR 13 2026 Water vapor imagery late this evening depicts a fairly active picture out to our north and west as a series of shortwaves progress across the Plains. Upper level ridging in place across the southeast is helping to deflect this activity away from the region. At the surface, high pressure remains anchored just off the east coast, leaving us with a southerly flow. Winds will be breezy at times over the next couple of days as the pressure gradient tightens in response to a low pressure system across the Northern Plains. By late Wednesday into Thursday, another H5 shortwave ejects across the Plains and begins to suppress our ridge to the south. This will open a brief window during the day Thursday for a low chance of rain across our NW areas. Confidence is low in this scenario as moisture recovery does not look too impressive. After all, "drought begets drought". Upper ridging quickly moves back into place, keeping us dry as we wrap up the work week. An upper trough lifts out of the Plains towards the Great Lakes Saturday into Sunday while pushing a cold front our way. This boundary looks to move into the area late Saturday night/early Sunday morning, eventually clearing the CWA by the evening hours. Latest guidance is hinting at PWATs ranging from 1.2-1.4" as this front passes through. Therefore, we will hang onto low to medium chances for showers and storms late Saturday night through Sunday afternoon. Rain chances with this system look a bit more promising despite our ongoing drought conditions as we will see more forcing available. Much drier air quickly filters back into the region as we close out the weekend and head into the work week. Our warming trend will continue through the work week. Highs each afternoon will generally climb into the mid 80s. Friday looks to be the warmest day as the entire region has roughly a 40-70% chance of exceeding 90F. It's likely that we see some high temp records broken as we close out the work week. To add confidence here, the ECMWF EFI/SOT guidance is strongly hinting at an anomalous heat event for this time of the year. These warm temps and dry conditions will likely lead to worsening drought conditions over the next week. 95/Castillo && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 557 PM CDT MON APR 13 2026 VFR conditions and light winds prevail through this TAF window. Moisture will increase slightly across the western half of the state overnight. This may lead to a brief period of MVFR cigs at TCL near sunrise. However, chances are low so have left any mention out of the TAFs at this time. 95/Castillo && .FIRE WEATHER... Elevated fire danger conditions will be a concern daily as we head through the week. MinRHs on Tuesday and Wednesday will drop into the 25-35% range. Winds will be a bit breezy with gusts from 10-15 MPH. Outside of a low chance of rain across our northwest areas, dry conditions will remain in place through the work week. A cold front is forecast to move through Saturday night, which will bring a low to medium chance for showers and storms. It will also lead to increased fire weather concerns late this weekend into early next week as much drier air moves back into the region. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1102 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026 Record High Temperatures: April 14: KBHM: 89/1981 KEET: 85/2017 KANB: 89/1981 KTCL: 88/2003 KMGM: 89/1972 April 15: KBHM: 88/1936 KEET: 85/2012 KANB: 89/1972 KTCL: 88/1972 KMGM: 91/1972 April 16: KBHM: 89/1977 KEET: 84/2013 KTCL: 90/1955 KMGM: 90/1925 April 17: KBHM: 90/1955 KEET: 86/2013 KTCL: 92/1955 KMGM: 90/1955 April 18: KBHM: 91/2006 KEET: 90/2006 KANB: 90/1955 KMGM: 91/2006 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 55 84 55 86 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 57 84 57 86 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 60 85 60 86 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 58 85 57 85 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 57 85 57 87 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 58 84 59 85 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 56 86 57 88 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 55 85 57 87 / 0 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...95/Castillo AVIATION...95/Castillo  314 FXUS64 KHUN 140352 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1052 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1052 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 - Low relative humidity values, dry fuels, and gusty winds will result in elevated fire weather conditions Tuesday through Wednesday. - There are medium chances (30-50%) of showers and storms on Thursday. - Medium chances (30-60%) of showers and storms return on Saturday. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of Tonight and Tuesday) Issued at 1052 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Upper level ridging building over the Southeast and surface high pressure planted over the Deep South will keep appreciable precipitation out of the forecast through at least midweek. Also, Hi-Res model guidance indicates that a pocket of drier air will form over northeast Alabama Tuesday afternoon and push northeast over the Appalachians on Wednesday. Overall, it will be dry and warm, as lows tonight merely dip into the upper 50s to lower 60s and highs on Tuesday warm into the mid to upper 80s. To put this into perspective, the record highs for both Huntsville and Muscle Shoals for April 14th is 89 degrees (set in 1917 and 1936 respectively). Our forecast highs approach these values, with 86 degrees for Huntsville and 87 for Muscle Shoals. Therefore, it will be fairly warm for this time of year! If you have outdoor activities or work outside, make sure to drink plenty of water and take breaks in the shade! In addition to these warm temperatures, it will be dry. Forecast relative humidity values drop into the 30 percent range for areas along and west of I-65 and into the mid 20 to lower 30 percent range east of I-65. This, in combination with southwesterly winds around 10-15 mph and gusts to 15-20 mph will keep elevated fire weather danger a concern. While not quite meeting Red Flag criteria, it is still important to remain cautious and take heed of any burn bans in place. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday Night through Thursday Night) Issued at 1052 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Upper level ridging over the region and surface high pressure over the Deep South will maintain their hold through Wednesday. By Thursday morning, both of these features will be shunted to the east as an upper shortwave digs over the Mississippi Valley towards the Ohio Valley and a surface low pressure system from the central Plains slides into the Midwest. A cold front associated with this system may approach the Tennessee Valley during the day and bring medium chances (30-50%) of showers and storms to the local area, mainly for northwest Alabama and up into southern middle Tennessee. There is still a bit of uncertainty with how far south the front will travel and where the best upper dynamics will be for any strong to severe storm potential. At this point, confidence is low in any strong to severe storms for north Alabama and southern middle Tennessee but this will be monitored. As for the much needed rainfall, looking probabilistically, there is a very low chance (10-20%) for areas over southern middle Tennessee and west of I-65 in Alabama to receive greater than a quarter of an inch of rain Thursday evening. Locations farther east have an even lesser chance. Therefore, confidence is low that we receive much rainfall at all on Thursday. However, this won't be our only chance at rain this week. Better chances look to be over this next weekend, so stay tuned and read more below in the Long Term section! As for temperatures through Thursday night, it will continue to be warm with highs generally in the mid 80s and lows in the 60s. Taking a look at record temperatures for April 15th to provide some context, the record highs are 88 degrees for Huntsville and 89 degrees at Muscle Shoals (both set in 2006). Keep that in mind if you have outdoor activities on Wednesday and remember heat safety! Drink plenty of water and take frequent breaks in the shade! Before moisture increases on Thursday ahead of the aforementioned surface front, the dry conditions mentioned in the short term will persist into Wednesday. Relative humidity values are forecast to drop into the upper 20 to lower 30 percent range during the day. In addition, it will also be breezy with another day of southwesterly winds around 10-15 mph and gusts to 15-20 mph. Therefore, elevated fire weather concerns will persist. Please be cautious as any fires that develop will likely spread more rapidly than expected! && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 1052 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 The extended forecast period will begin with a continuation of warm/dry conditions, as a 500-mb ridge builds northeastward in the wake of a low amplitude shortwave trough and weak surface low tracking eastward across the northern Mid-Atlantic states. With only a few high-based cumulus anticipated beneath a strengthening mid- level inversion and light SSW flow in the low-levels, most valley locations will experience highs in the u80s-l90s. Low-level flow will begin to increase on Friday evening as a deepening vort max (embedded within the base of a broader trough extending from southern Canada into the northern Plains) begins to eject northeastward into the MO Valley, resulting in development of a frontal wave that will lift northeastward from KS into WI by 12Z Saturday. Latest model guidance suggests that both the mid-level wave and surface low will undergo substantial intensification as they progress further northeastward into eastern OT/western QC by 12Z Sunday, with showers and thunderstorms expected to develop along the length of the trailing cold front and perhaps a prefrontal surface trough (from IL/IN into the northwestern Gulf Coast) Saturday afternoon. As the cold front begins to overtake the surface trough across the TN Valley Saturday evening, chances for much needed rainfall will increase across our forecast area, but there remains a large amount of uncertainty regarding rainfall amounts (ranging from around 0.05-0.10" as a worst case scenario to 0.5-0.75" as a best case scenario). This is likely due to the combination of substantial amount of lingering CINH noted in forecast soundings and a narrow plume of modified Gulf moisture which will only overspread the entire region immediately in advance of the front. Should the low/mid-level thermodynamic profile improve, rainfall amounts would likely be closer to the best case scenario, and a few strong storms capable of producing gusty winds would also be probable given sufficiently strong WSW flow aloft (45-55 knots) for updraft organization. Regardless, the front appears as if it will be exiting our region early Sunday morning, with any lingering precipitation ending in our southeastern zones around 12Z Sunday. A cooler/drier continental airmass will overspread the region for the remainder of the period, featuring highs in the u60s-l70s Sunday and overnight lows in the l-m 40s Monday morning. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 655 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 VFR conditions will continue through Tuesday afternoon. Southerly winds will decrease to be around 5 knots or less this evening and persist overnight. Expecting winds to increase once again to around 10 knots with gusts to between 15-18 knots by late Tuesday morning/early afternoon. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM....26 LONG TERM....70/DD AVIATION...26  928 FXUS64 KOHX 140353 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1053 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1037 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 - Enhanced fire danger Tuesday and Wednesday due to dry conditions and gusty winds. - Continued unseasonal warmth through the week. Record highs are possible Tuesday and Wednesday. - Medium to high rain/storm chances Thursday and again this weekend. No severe weather is expected at this time. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday Night) Issued at 1037 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Dry conditions return on Tuesday after today's light shower activity as the upper ridge influences strengthen. RH values will drop below 30% along the plateau during the afternoon along with 10-15 mph SSW winds gusting up to 25 mph. This will create increased fire danger. Any rain that may have fallen today was very light and not enough to put much of a dent in fuel moistures. Temperatures on Tuesday will be back into the 80s. Wednesday will be pretty similar with low RH values and gusty SSW winds keeping the enhanced fire conditions in place. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1037 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 The next chance of rain will arrive on Thursday as a shortwave disturbance traverses the area. We have medium to high chances of picking up some measurable rainfall with rainfall amounts of around of less than 0.5". Temperatures rebound behind Thursday's disturbance with highs back in the lower to upper 80s on Friday and Saturday. A cold front will move through on Saturday night bringing more medium to high rain chances. Behind the front, temperatures will be knocked back closer to normal with highs in the 60s and 70s on Sunday and Monday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 601 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Lingering light showers will impact CSV over the next few hours, but the remainder of Middle TN terminals will remain dry through the period. SCT to BKN cloud cover around 15 kft will be in place tonight with relaxing southerly winds. Winds will shift southwesterly after 15Z with gusts 15-20 kts through Tuesday afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 65 87 63 87 / 0 10 0 0 Clarksville 66 88 65 87 / 10 10 0 0 Crossville 59 82 58 83 / 0 10 0 0 Columbia 64 87 62 85 / 0 10 0 0 Cookeville 61 82 60 83 / 10 10 0 0 Jamestown 60 83 59 83 / 0 10 0 0 Lawrenceburg 62 84 61 84 / 0 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 64 87 62 86 / 0 10 0 0 Waverly 66 87 66 86 / 10 10 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Reagan LONG TERM....Reagan AVIATION.....Baggett  834 FXUS64 KMEG 140359 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1059 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1058 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 - Dry and warm conditions will return Tuesday, followed by a gradual warming trend through late week. By Friday, near record high temperatures are expected. - A passing upper level disturbance and weak surface cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms on Thursday, mainly to areas along and north of Interstate 40. - Following a hot and dry day on Friday, rain chances will return late Saturday, associated with the passage of a cold front. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 1058 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Dry conditions are anticipated Tuesday and Wednesday as upper level ridging continues to build into the Mid-South. Above normal temperatures will be in place both days as highs soar into the low and mid 80s. For context, our normal high temperatures for the middle of April are the low 70s. Our next shot at rainfall arrives Thursday as a shortwave moves over the upper Mississippi Valley. Previous forecasts had showers and thunderstorms arriving in the Mid-South late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. However, the latest guidance is featuring a later arrival time with convective activity moving into the area just after sunrise Thursday. A severe storm or two cannot be ruled out at this time, but overall confidence is low. Should storm timing continue to push later into the day, a greater severe weather threat will materialize. The LREF continues to place a 50-80% chance of overlapping severe parameters by 1PM. Damaging wind and large hail would be the primary concerns if storms linger into the afternoon hours. Negligible rainfall totals will fall through the evening hours, resulting in little to no change in the current drought conditions. Friday will likely be the hottest day of the year, thus far, as efficient upper level ridging builds into the Mid-South. The latest NBM suggests a 40-50% chance of temperatures east of the Mississippi River reaching 90 degrees. Should this occur, it will beat our average first 90 degree day by over a month. Elsewhere on Friday, a large upper level trough will form over the Rockies and deepen as it ejects east. This system will approach the Mid- South on Saturday, once again increasing rain chances. Currently, the Storm Prediction Center does not have the Mid-South outlooked for severe storms Saturday. However, a few machine learning models and ensemble suites are beginning to pick up on the potential for storms Saturday afternoon ahead of a cold front. Given anomalously warm temperatures and strong upper level forcing, severe storms will not be out of the question. It remains too early to tell specifics. A brief reprieve from above-average temperatures will arrive on Sunday as the aforementioned front exits the Mid-South. Temperatures Sunday and Monday will be in the 60s and 70s. Long- term forecasts suggest another warming trend by the middle of next week, so get out and enjoy the cooler temperatures while they last. ANS && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1058 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 High confidence (>80% chance) for VFR conditions as upper-level ridging persists through the 06Z TAF period. A nearby tight pressure gradient will result in elevated south winds. South winds will remain elevated through the night. Winds will increase with mixing on Tuesday, sustained between 15-20 kts with gusts approaching 25-30 kts at MEM and JBR, and then decrease to 8- 11 kts by Tuesday evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1058 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Fire weather concerns will be minimal throughout the week as MinRH remains above 30 percent. Wetting rain chances exist on Thursday for areas along and north of I-40. Additional rains are anticipated Saturday. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS AVIATION...CJC