277 FXUS64 KEPZ 140403 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1003 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1003 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 - Breezy to windy conditions again Tuesday, with at least some patchy blowing dust. Lighter winds for Wednesday. - Breezy to windy again Thursday into Friday with elevated to critical fire weather conditions. - The weekend will be cooler with a slight chance for rain on Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1003 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 The upper level trough that brought gusty winds and some patchy blowing dust to the region on Monday, will be slowly making its way across northern New Mexico on Tuesday, so we will see another round of gusty southwest winds and patch blowing dust. The winds may be just slightly slower than we saw on Monday, but not by much. On Wednesday we will be between systems so we will see less winds but Wednesday's high temperatures will run a few degrees below average. For Thursday and Friday, another upper level trough will approach the region and that will mean more winds. Winds both Thursday and Friday look to stay below advisory levels (30 to 40 mph), but the gusty winds could give us more patchy blowing dust. High temperatures both days will be at or a little above average. On Saturday a backdoor cold front will push slightly cooler air into the area. The high temperatures on Saturday will run 2 to 4 degrees below average. Then for Sunday, the southeast winds will help usher in some moisture so we will see a slight chance for rain on Sunday afternoon and evening, mainly east of the Rio Grande. High temperatures on Sunday will run 4 to 6 degrees below average. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1003 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 The dust has settled and the winds are beginning to slow down. We still have gusty winds at KELP and KTCS, but those wind gusts look to drop off in the next couple of hours. Our winds will stay out of the southwest tonight at around 10 mph. More gusty winds return Tuesday afternoon. The wind gusts will be a little lower than we saw on Monday. Also the winds showed drop off a little sooner Tuesday evening. Like today, we may see some patchy blowing dust, but right now it is not looking too impactful. We will continue to have mid and high ceilings tonight of BKN120-250. We may see a break in the ceilings during the morning hours of Tuesday, but by late morning and into the afternoon we will see a return of the mid and high ceilings. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1005 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Elevated to near critical fire weather concerns Tuesday due to breezy southwest 20 ft winds at 10-20 mph. Near critical to critical min RHs across a good portion of the lowlands of SW New Mexico with values generally 12-20% (30-40% in the area mountains). Drier air pushes in Wednesday, crashing min RHs down to the single digits (7-10% in the lowlands, 15-20% in mountains). However, winds will be the lightest on Wednesday with speeds of 5-10 mph. Breezy conditions expected Thursday and Friday, combined with critical min RHs will allow for near critical to critical fire weather concerns. Min RHs will still be in the single digits across the lowlands (5-10%) and 10-15% in the area mountains on Thursday. Wind speeds will be 10-20 mph out of the southwest. The Gila region, Black Range, Sierra County, high terrain in the NM Bootheel and even portions of the Sacramento Mtns will have the best chance to see Red Flag conditions. By Friday, will still see critical min RHs across the lowlands with values of 8-11% and 15-20% in the mountains. 20 ft wind speeds will be around 10-20 mph again. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 61 80 52 77 / 0 10 10 0 Sierra Blanca 55 76 49 75 / 10 10 10 0 Las Cruces 51 76 43 74 / 10 10 10 0 Alamogordo 53 76 43 73 / 10 10 10 0 Cloudcroft 38 52 31 52 / 20 10 10 0 Truth or Consequences 52 74 45 75 / 20 0 0 0 Silver City 43 64 36 67 / 50 0 0 0 Deming 50 77 42 77 / 10 10 0 0 Lordsburg 46 72 38 73 / 20 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 61 79 53 77 / 0 10 10 0 Dell City 53 80 47 78 / 0 10 10 0 Fort Hancock 60 84 53 82 / 10 20 10 0 Loma Linda 55 73 48 70 / 0 10 10 0 Fabens 59 82 52 80 / 0 10 10 0 Santa Teresa 55 78 47 76 / 0 10 10 0 White Sands HQ 58 78 50 75 / 10 10 10 0 Jornada Range 49 76 40 75 / 10 10 10 0 Hatch 52 79 40 78 / 10 0 0 0 Columbus 55 80 47 78 / 10 10 0 0 Orogrande 51 76 44 74 / 10 10 10 0 Mayhill 45 66 37 65 / 10 10 10 0 Mescalero 42 64 34 62 / 20 10 10 0 Timberon 40 61 36 60 / 10 10 10 0 Winston 39 65 30 68 / 20 0 0 0 Hillsboro 49 71 41 73 / 30 0 0 0 Spaceport 47 74 38 75 / 10 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 40 64 31 68 / 50 0 0 0 Hurley 42 69 34 70 / 30 0 0 0 Cliff 43 70 34 74 / 50 0 0 0 Mule Creek 40 66 34 71 / 40 0 0 0 Faywood 45 69 38 70 / 30 0 0 0 Animas 49 75 40 75 / 10 0 0 0 Hachita 49 75 39 74 / 10 10 0 0 Antelope Wells 50 76 40 76 / 10 0 0 0 Cloverdale 47 70 40 70 / 10 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...15-Brice  855 FXUS64 KHGX 140405 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1105 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and humid conditions continue through the end of the week. Heat index values in the 90s at the end of the work week. - Rain chances increase over the weekend as a cold front moves into the region. - Seasonal conditions expected in the wake of the front going into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1105 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Tomorrow (or today depending on when you read this...whichever day April 14th is) is Look Up at the Sky Day. You can start to observe the holiday early by looking up at the sky early Tuesday morning to observe the International Space Station flying over Space City. This is highly dependent on the cloud coverage in your particular area during the 6:04am to 6:10am timeframe...which will be mostly cloudy for a lot of us. If you want to make an attempt at seeing it, look to the southwestern horizon around 6:04am. It'll be a bit low on the horizon though (max altitude of 32 degrees), so you might have to use your imagination. There will be plenty of blue skies to enjoy in the afternoon though as drier air filters in as southwesterly flow remains in place. Looking at 700mb, a pocket of much drier air moves in from the southwest on Tuesday (along with slightly warmer temperatures) leading to the development of a capping inversion aloft. This will keep rain chances slim to none for most of Southeast Texas through the end of the work week. Some under the cap light showers can't be ruled out during the afternoons. The main exception to the slim to no rain chances comes on Wednesday for portions of the Brazos Valley and the Piney Woods. As an upper level trough sweeps through the central CONUS midweek, it will aid in the development of storms off of a dry line over in western Texas. It's not entirely out of the question for a few storms to clip portions of the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods on Wednesday afternoon/evening especially with favorable placement of a jet streak (right entrance region) and a LLJ, but the storms will be fighting an uphill battle if they move this direction due to previously mentioned capping inversion. PW values begin to increase towards the end of the work week, so some isolated streamer showers cannot be ruled out. We'll still have that capping inversion aloft in place, so this potential is on the low side...but not exactly zero. Temperatures will be on an upward trend throughout the work week with highs in the low to mid 80s through midweek. By the end of the work week, 850mb temperatures increase leading to high temperatures peaking in the upper 80s. The probability of high temperatures reaching the 90 degree mark are low on Thursday/Friday, but they aren't zero! Either way, the increased low-level moisture will lead to heat index values in the low to mid 90s. Low temperatures will be mainly in the upper 60s to low 70s through the work week. Going into the weekend is when the forecast gets interesting once again as a cold front approaches. I personally would like to take credit for this cold front (assuming model trends hold) as I recently claimed that our next cold front would be in 7 months. Mother Nature is looking to prove me wrong and I will GLADLY take this L. An upper level trough with an embedded upper low will transition from the Pacific Northwest on Thursday to the Four Corners region by Friday. Surface low pressure subsequently develops through lee cyclogenesis near Oklahoma/Kansas. This low then travels northeastward towards the Great Lakes region, which pushes a cold front into Southeast Texas late Saturday/early Sunday. The exact timing is still a bit uncertain at this time, but there is good consensus on PW values surging near or above the 90th percentile (~1.57"). Showers and storms are likely along and potentially ahead of the frontal boundary as it pushes through the region. Showers may linger into Sunday. Northeasterly winds will be a bit breezy in the wake of the front, especially near the coast through Sunday. It's too early to be too specific on temperatures, but we can take a look at things probabilistically again! The probability of high temperatures below 80 degrees increases sharply to 70-90% for Sunday and Monday. The probability for low temperatures below 60 degrees increases to 50-70% for areas north of I-10 and 20-40% elsewhere for Saturday night. For Sunday night, these probabilities increase to 60- 90% for the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods and 20-50% elsewhere. There's plenty of time for the forecast to change and evolve, but the probabilities for seasonal temperatures are looking good! :D Batiste && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 628 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Lingering showers from this afternoon and early evening have fully dissipated with expectations to not see much more tonight thanks to building high pressure. Instead concerns will be more focused on the cloud cover and the expected CIGs for the overnight period as multiple CAMs suggest a return to MVFR CIGs by around midnight. These conditions are expected to hold for most of the TAF sites through the overnight and morning hours with most CAMS not seeing a return to VFR until around noon tomorrow. Otherwise, look for winds to once again pick up tomorrow afternoon with gusts upwards of 20 to 23 kts possible at the surface. && .MARINE... Issued at 1105 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow throughout the work week. There will be periods where winds increase to the caution flag threshold, especially Tuesday night into Wednesday morning and later in the work week. Due to the persistent onshore flow, slightly elevated water levels remain in the forecast throughout the work week as P-ETSS guidance continues to reflect water levels reaching 2.5-3.0 ft above MLLW during times of high tide. While coastal flooding is not a concern at this time, some wave run-up is certainly possible along Gulf-facing beaches along with increased risk of rip currents. A cold front and associated showers/storms are expected to push offshore late Saturday/early Sunday bringing a period of elevated offshore winds and seas that will likely prompt Small Craft Advisories through the remainder of the weekend. Batiste && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1105 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Still monitoring a few gauges that are either in or forecasted to crest into action stage in the Lavaca/Navidad River basin following Sunday's heavy rainfall event. The Navidad River at Sublime (SBMT2) is crested in action stage Monday afternoon/evening and has already fallen below action stage. The Navidad River at Morales (MRAT2) is forecast to crest into action stage early Tuesday morning, then fall out of it by Wednesday morning. Lastly, the Navidad River at Strane Park (LSNT2) is forecast to crest into action stage Tuesday evening, then fall out of it around Wednesday afternoon. These rises are based on routed flow from upstream. Remember that you can monitor updated river forecasts via the NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) Batiste && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 68 82 67 84 / 0 0 0 10 Houston (IAH) 70 84 70 84 / 0 0 0 10 Galveston (GLS) 73 79 72 79 / 0 0 0 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Batiste AVIATION...Self MARINE...Batiste  529 FXUS63 KDDC 140408 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1108 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread critical fire weather conditions today and Tuesday ahead of the first storm system. All 27 counties of NWS DDC area will remain in Red Flag Warning today and Fire Weather Watch (to be upgraded to Red Flag Warning) Tuesday. - Additional critical fire weather concerns ahead of the second late week storm system, especially west of Highway 283 where lowest relative humidity will remain. - Severe weather risk across eastern half of NWS Dodge City area Friday ahead of the second, larger and stronger storm system. SPC 15% Probabilistic Outlook for severe storms Friday east of a Coldwater to Larned line. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 104 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Very warm and dry weather will continue out ahead of a large upper level trough centered over California and Nevada late this morning. Broad southwesterly flow through the depth of the troposphere will become most pronounced Tuesday afternoon when the center of the mid level trough axis moves across Colorado, inducing a lower tropospheric low across northwestern Kansas. This will keep the strongest height gradient 850mb through 700mb across much of Kansas into Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Deep mixing through 3km AGL by mid to late afternoon will support fairly frequent southwest wind gusts 35 to 40 knots, so we have continued to favor 75th percentile winds off the NBM for much of our southwest Kansas region. The same goes for afternoon temperatures, favoring 75th percentile given continued very dry condition, resulting in highs Tuesday upper 80s to around 90F across the eastern half of the DDC CWA. On Wednesday, we will see a break in strong winds in between storm systems, but the next incoming storm system will be larger in scope and a bit stronger, so we will begin seeing surface response to the next storm as early as midday Thursday as the leeside trough redevelop and south winds increase again. As the 850mb and 700mb height gradient increases, deep southwesterly winds will increase, and we will see these mix down to the surface in stronger gusts again late in the afternoon, especially across far southwest Kansas. The downslope southwesterlies will be a warm wind, so highs well into the mid 80s are forecast with even some upper 80s/near 90 in the typically hot locations such as the Red Hills. Through all this time today through Thursday, the surface dryline will remain east across south central Kansas into western Oklahoma, but given just enough uncertainty in county-level detail of dryline position, we will keep some small POPs across the Red Hills region for thunderstorms late Tuesday/Tuesday Night until the first storm system fully clears our region. The dryline will push east and eventually become quite diffuse by Thursday as the MSLP pattern undergoes a readjustment in between storms. The dryline is then expected to reform farther west on Friday as the next larger storm takes shape over the Rockies. The reshaped dryline will sharpen up as convergence increases due to deepening surface low by Friday afternoon, setting the stage for a fairly classic looking severe weather episode across the Central Plains, including eastern portions of the DDC CWA. The latest SPC Convective Outlook for Friday includes a 15% outlook for our eastern areas, east of roughly Coldwater to Larned line, for all severe weather risks including possibility of tornadoes. After Friday evening severe weather risk shifts east of southwest and south central Kansas, a strong cold front will sweep south some time Friday Night, ushering in much cooler air. A stable/quiet weekend will follow, albeit windy and chilly Saturday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1107 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 VFR conditions will persist throughout the TAF period. Winds have subsided significantly across the area as we continue to move into the late evening and overnight hours. Weaker winds of sustained 10-15 knots will continue through the night. Another day of strong southwesterly winds are expected today, with winds increasing markedly after 14-15z. Expect sustained winds 20-25 knots with gusts 35-40 knots. Winds will again diminish quickly with the sunset after 00z to 10-15 knots sustained. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ Tuesday for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090. && $$ DISCUSSION...Umscheid AVIATION...Bennett  987 FXUS63 KLSX 140411 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1111 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday night and again Wednesday afternoon into evening. The better chance for severe weather exists on Wednesday. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats each day. - A potent cold front will pass through the region late this week, bringing another chance for strong to severe thunderstorms and an end to the unseasonable warmth. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tuesday Night) Issued at 157 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Water vapor imagery shows an upper-mid level longwave trough over the northwestern third of the CONUS with an upper-low level ridge dominating the remainder of the country. The Mid-Mississippi Valley's weather is being influenced by the northwestern portion of ridge as seen by strong, deep southwest flow throughout the atmospheric column. We're seeing this at the surface in the form of temperatures in the 80s, which is 20 degrees above normal for mid- April. Gulf moisture is also being advected in along the southwesterly flow, as characterized by dewpoints in the 60s. Needless to say, there is an abundance of warmth and moisture in the region. This translates to an abundance of instability as well, which leads us into Tuesday and Wednesday's severe potential. The bottom line for Tuesday is that the potential for severe thunderstorms in our area is low. Despite being located within an open warm sector and an 80% HREF probability of having 2500+ J/kg of SBCAPE in place, a strong capping inversion is expected to keep convective initiation at bay through the afternoon. A lack of any forcing or mid and upper level lift supports at least mostly dry weather as well. Instead, supercells are expected to fire off a dryline in Kansas southward through Texas in the afternoon and become severe as they drive northeast. By the time they reach central Missouri in the evening, daytime instability will be quickly waning and CIN quickly growing. If the mass of thunderstorms is still severe by the time it arrives, the increasingly unfavorable environment it moves into will ensure it won't stay severe for long. If any thunderstorm does remain severe, large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats. A strengthening low-level jet Tuesday night will keep ongoing convection from eroding completely and/or spark new initiation. None of this is expected to be severe, but it may impact the potential for severe thunderstorms on Wednesday especially if it lasts well into the morning. Jaja && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Next Monday) Issued at 157 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 By 1pm Wednesday, the longwave trough currently over the western CONUS will be centered in the High Plains. A jet streak will extend northeastward through the Southern Plains and into the Great Lakes region, skimming our CWA along its extent. Though the best upper level forcing will exist to our northwest, we'll still be in the right entrance region of the jet streak and will be able to take advantage of the more robust upper level support. The same can be said in the mid-levels where forcing increases ahead of an incoming shortwave. In the low-levels, a surface cyclone will be pushing northeast from Nebraska into the Upper Midwest, dragging a cold front into northwestern Missouri to serve as forcing for ascent. This will all make for a much better set-up than Tuesday. The only potentially mitigating factor will be instability. More specifically, how well the boundary layer will recover after Tuesday night's/Wednesday morning's low-level jet driven convection. The latest LREF shows only up to 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE in place by 1pm. This is a much lower value than Tuesday's 2500+ J/kg, but with so much support at all levels, it shouldn't matter. Effective bulk shear will also be in the 35-45 kt range, which is more than enough to support severe weather even given the lower instability. Shear vectors are forecast to be about 45 degrees off of the cold front. This may result in discrete thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds initially before congealing into a line or multi- cell mass. Minor shifts in the bulk shear vectors may change storm mode drastically. More than 45 degrees and supercells will be favored. Less than 45 degrees and a QLCS will likely develop faster with damaging winds being the primary threat. As mentioned, thunderstorms will weaken in the hours after sunset. Two mid-level shortwaves, one in the Upper Midwest and another in the Mid-South, will pass Wednesday night into Thursday, and another low-level jet will ramp up along and ahead of the cold front. These features will offer continued support for ascent, and will keep non- severe convection going until the Mid-South shortwave exits late Thursday. The cold front is not expected to clear the area entirely, but will instead buckle northward as a warm front late Thursday. A lack of cold air behind the front will make its passage and return basically unnoticeable as highs reach the widespread upper 70s and low 80s again Thursday. A much more potent cold front will drive through the region late Friday/early Saturday and will bring a real rush of cool air into the area. Although there's still uncertainty regarding how cool we get, the NBM 75th percentile high temperature forecast for KSTL on Sunday is only 71 degrees. There is another chance of thunderstorms on Friday ahead of the cold front with severe weather possible again. The potential for severe weather will rely on the timing of the cold front, which at this point is still very uncertain. Jaja && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night) Issued at 1102 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A complex of showers and thunderstorms has track from eastern Kansas into central Missouri late this evening. The activity is expected to make it into KCOU just before midnight and near KJEF around 06z. The strongest thunderstorms have produced wind gusts up to 70 mph to the west of the TAF sites, though general weakening is expected with eastward movement. Locally heavy rain and gusty winds are possible with these thunderstorms, through approximately 08z. Thunderstorms should continue to weaken as they approach the Mississippi River late tonight. Cloud base remain above VFR level for the most part with localize, briefing dips to MVFR under the strongest cells. MVFR will become less likely as thunderstorms remain elevated and weaken overnight. Gusty conditions are expected to continue much of the time, being more prevalent during the daylight hours after diurnal mixing resumes late Tuesday morning. Isolated to widely scattered showers are possible Tuesday afternoon, but will be hit-or-miss. This was not included in the prevailing group with the high degree of uncertainty at any given terminal. Chances for rain increase late Tuesday night with showers and an isolated thunderstorm. However, widespread thunderstorms are not expected with VFR persisting through the end of the period. Maples && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX  610 FXUS63 KDMX 140412 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 1112 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...Updated for the 06z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - A few severe storms in northern Iowa late this afternoon and evening with large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a tornado possible. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible in far northern Iowa. - Next round of severe storms and locally heavy rainfall on Tuesday afternoon into night, especially central into southern Iowa. - Additional rounds of severe storms and locally heavy rainfall on Wednesday (eastern Iowa) and again on Friday (much of Iowa). - Warm and breezy today through Friday with highs in the 70s and 80s, then temperatures tumble into the 40s and 50s this weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Today is the start of a busy, active stretch of weather with multiple rounds of severe storms and heavy rainfall potential through weeks end. The first round is setting up for later this afternoon into this evening over northern Iowa. Early afternoon GOES-East Day Cloud Phase Distinction has scattered low level cumulus clouds from Siouxland into northern Iowa with a fair amount of clearing south of these clouds in western Iowa. A warm front is where the clearing/scattered cumulus clouds are located from just north of Sioux City to north of Algona to north of Mason City. Forecast soundings initially show a warm capping layer aloft, which will prevent storm development. However, as the triple point/low pressure moves into northwest Iowa late this afternoon, these same soundings show weakening of the cap. This will allow any inhibition to be overcome and for surface based storms to develop in the vicinity/east of the triple point. Proximity soundings show 3000 J/kg or more of entrainment CAPE, more than ample deep layer shear, and steep lapse rates for severe storms. The hodograph is more linear given lack of backed surface flow so large hail and damaging winds are obvious concerns. Uncontaminated 0-1 km storm relative helicity is marginal at around 100 m2/s2, but with the triple point and warm front over our area, think a few tornadoes will be possible as the flow backs more locally ahead of these features that may enhance the low level flow and helicity. Looking at convective allowing model (CAM) guidance, this has been showing up in past runs of the HRRR along with the ARW cores developing over northwest into north central Iowa close to 0z/7pm this evening. Warn on Forecast (WoFS) is running over the area and the 18z paintballs shows initiation between 22-23z/5-6pm and potential for rotating storms in the vicinity of Spencer that then spreads east-northeastward. As one or more storms develop and move to the east-northeast, these should congeal into a line with the main hazards transitioning more to a large hail and damaging wind threat as the storms exit into northeastern Iowa by midnight. While quite limited, National Water Model forced HRRR has shown some rapid onset flooding potential in far northern Iowa near the Minnesota border, but as the hydro discussion outlines below this will be limited to urban areas. For areas outside of northern Iowa/south of roughly Highway 3, the forecast is expected to be dry. The exception, which is shown in the ARW and NAMNest, is the possibility of convection with a hail and wind threat that turns east- southeastward into the instability gradient. While not a likely scenario, it does exist. Severe risks also exist on Tuesday and Wednesday with each subsequent round better determined after the first has occurred. For Tuesday, the boundary will slip into our forecast area with a weak surface low to the west of the state that moves in later in the day or at night. The front should be a focus for possible storm development mid to late afternoon, but there is a variety of times and locations for convective initiation as the location of moisture gradients, the low position, and wind fields all vary greatly amongst the CAMs. This plays a crucial role in what, if any, storms develop in the afternoon, their location and their hazards. While whatever threat develops and moves into eastern Iowa Tuesday evening, a strong low level jet will begin to move up into our area by late evening. This will bring renewed convection into southern and central Iowa by late evening through much of the overnight, which wanes into the daylight hours of Wednesday. The main hazards would be hail and wind. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 As the western CONUS shortwave trough finally lifts into our region, expect a final round of storms across eastern portions of Iowa on Wednesday. Instability and shear parameter space looks favorable for strong to severe storms with large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes all possible. Further, the surface low and warm front could be over central Iowa and may aid in enhancing low level hodographs, but this is a detail to monitor versus be concerned about at this time horizon. As Wednesday's strong synoptic forcing passes by, Thursday is looking like a more tranquil, dry day into Thursday night. However, the next amplified shortwave trough will be trucking towards the region taking on a neutral tilt. With a surface low and cold front moving through the region/state sometime on Friday with highs reaching the 70s and 80s, another round of strong to severe storms will be possible with this highlighted in the day 5 SPC outlook. As the storms move east of the state Friday night, colder air will wrap in behind the departing low and cannot rule out some snowflakes in northern portions of the state early Saturday. Temperatures will tumble into the 40s and 50s with breezy winds from the northwest on Saturday as well. Further, those with early season vegetation will want to monitor the forecast with sub-freezing temperatures forecast Saturday night/Sunday morning. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1110 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 MVFR stratus and fog will again be possible across the north over the next 8 hours, have trended worse on conditions given conditions seen yesterday morning. Adjusted prob30 groups and added prevailing groups for showers and storms tomorrow afternoon. Highest confidence in storms at KALO. Additional storms possible near the end of the TAF period, highest confidence at KOTM at this time. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 239 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Multiple rounds of seasonally moderate to heavy rain this week will lead to renewed flooding concerns. Presently the main concern will be possible renewed or additional river flooding. Output from the GFS- and NBM-forced medium-range National Water Model (NWM) and the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System (HEFS) suggest the most likely scenario will be moderate to significant within-bank rises on many rivers and streams, especially across the southeast half of the CWA over the next week. A few locations may see minor river flooding as well. These rises will be due to the additive effect of multiple rounds of rainfall. If rainfall is higher than presently forecast then the risk of several locations seeing minor flooding and a few locations seeing moderate flooding will increase. Flash flooding is less of a concern than river flooding, however the risk is nonzero. The most likely scenario will be ponding of water or low-end flash flooding especially in urban areas or areas that receive repeated heavy rainfall over a relatively short time period. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Ansorge LONG TERM...Ansorge AVIATION...Jimenez HYDROLOGY...Zogg  886 FXUS63 KPAH 140420 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1120 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Record or near record warm temperatures are forecast Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday...with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s pretty much all week. - Best rain chances come Wednesday night-Thursday and again next weekend. Storm total average rainfall amounts with each round aggregate in the 0.25-0.75" range. - A marked cooldown closer to seasonal averages with high temps in the 60s and low temps in the 40s will settle in for next Sunday-Monday, after the storm system completes its passage this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1200 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 There are two primary targets of opportunity with our high pressure ridge dominated forecast. The first is Wednesday night-Thursday, when ripples in the steering flow pass overhead and introduce a chance of showers/storms. Then again the coming weekend, as the main synoptic body makes passage. These will offer best storm and heavier rain chances, though at this writing, severe storms are not in the outlook. Average storm total qpf for Wednesday night-Thurdsay is in the 0.25-0.75" range for most of our CWA. The main near term focus is on record or near record high temperatures the next two days, with our highs forecast in the mid 80s. Records are: TuesdayWednesday PAH 87 (2006)88 (1977) EVV 86 (2010)86 (2024) CGI 86 (1992)87 (1992) POF 89 (1925)88 (1936) MDH 85 (2010)87 (2024) Each day will feature warm/breezy south to southwest winds that assist in the warm run. After a transitional Thursday, we're right back to record warmth Friday, which may offer our earliest 90F max temp on record, if we can over-achieve just a little on our forecast mid-upper 80s highs. Another 0.25-0.75" QPF forecast is in store for the weekend storm system passage as well, and after its passage, much cooler and seasonal air will arrive to begin the new week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1115 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 VFR conditions expected through the end of the period. Mostly high clouds across portions of the area overnight and tomorrow, though some few-sct mid to low VFR clouds can't be ruled out tomorrow. Winds will remain elevated overnight out of the south and southwest at most of the terminals. Winds will be breezy and gusty again tomorrow. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION... AVIATION...HICKFORD  131 FXUS63 KIWX 140420 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 1220 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - The potential for multiple rounds of showers and storms, possibly strong to severe, exist through Thursday. The most likely period appears to be Tuesday night into Thursday, but confidence remains on the lower side with finer details regarding impacts and intensity. - Hydro concerns could increase for mid to late week depending on tracks of successive convective rounds. - Above normal temperatures will continue into this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 238 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Challenging near and short term forecast through Tuesday night and even into Wednesday with a series of mid level and convectively induced disturbances expected to transverse the region. Certainty is highest in plenty of moisture and instability (steep mid-level lapse rates and SBCAPE of 1K to 2K j/kg) around for any of these waves. Certainty drops considerably with regards to timing and impacts of what could be multiple rounds of convection in some areas. As a result, hard to make any larger, wholesale changes to the forecast into Tuesday as we wait to see how things evolve. Will break things down as best as I can. To kick things off, we are closely monitoring a mid level disturbance moving through western IL with an area of showers and storms attempting to slowly expand which may impact west/northwest areas near/after 20Z. CAMS are all over the place on evolution (or lack thereof) of this area or possibly separate development later this afternoon or evening. As noted above parameters favor at least a threat of stg-svr storms with hail and maybe gusty winds becoming a threat with the stronger activity. Will maintain slgt chc to chc pops for now and adjust as needed based on trends. Some solutions also show development closer to 00Z with a west to east band of convection impacting northern areas. This seems less plausible at this point, but cannot be entirely discounted with both a severe and possibly hydro threat occurring. Confidence is high on development of stg-svr storms across portions of MN and WI in a very favorable environment this evening (SWODY1 Enhanced Risk outlines this). Much like the near term period, CAMs differ considerably on how this area evolves with some solutions tracking the activity due east and others suggesting a SE propagation towards us late tonight into early Tuesday with potential stg-svr storms and possibly some hydro issues (although this should be rather progressive). Again, limited changes to pops for the time being. Overnight convection will play somewhat of a factor wrt the threat for severe storms Tue afternoon-early Wed. Isolated storms could develop during the afternoon and early evening hours on any lingering boundaries, but the greatest focus will start to our west across eastern IA/N IL/S WI during the afternoon hours and then possibly expanding east and continuing to organize. Again, CAM solutions on the evolution of this into our area are all over the place, but signals are strongest for at least some convection Tuesday night into early Wednesday with both a severe and hydro threat quite possible. The new SPCDY2 outlook remains unchanged with the eastern edge of an enhanced risk to our immediate W and N, with the area in a slight risk for mainly a hail and wind threat. Not going to even try to make many updates at this point. The active weather continues Wednesday into Thursday as a somewhat stronger trough pushes into the area, with models somewhat in agreement on more widespread showers and storms with maybe more of a hydro vs severe threat. The area is presently in a Marginal Risk of Severe and Excessive Rainfall Risk. With all the challenges, not even going to try to make changes that far out. In the wake of the trough, one more push of warm air commences with highs Friday well into the 70s and maybe some 80s. Shower/storm chances will increase late Friday night into Saturday ahead of an even stronger trough that will eventually send temps back closer to, if not normal Sunday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1219 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The mid level disturbance and zone of stronger advective forcing responsible for last evenings convective cluster is now drifting across the eastern Great Lakes where some isolated showers exist. Attention is now turning upstream to a more organized convective complex from northeast Iowa into east central Wisconsin. This thunderstorm complex is exhibiting both upwind and downwind propagation with better upwind development and southward propagation becoming more defined over past hour or two across southwest Wisconsin into northeast Iowa. This tendency for southeast propagation into better instability axis/low level inflow should continue overnight, although more vigorous convective elements may remain across northern Illinois based on instability profiles. Nonetheless, would expect some outflow winds and some showers and isolated storms to spread southeast into northern Indiana after 10Z or 11Z this morning with a potential of some wind gusts up to 40 knots. Longevity of this feature is a little unclear in terms of KFWA with some surface based inhibition probably weakening these storms with southeast extent. A remnant outflow boundary from these storms could trigger additional thunderstorms this afternoon, but greater coverage/more organized thunderstorm development is not expected until later Tuesday evening. A period of MVFR cigs will likely accompany the outflow boundary this morning, with improvements to VFR this afternoon. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for LMZ043- 046. && $$ DISCUSSION...Fisher AVIATION...Marsili  313 FXUS66 KSGX 140422 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 922 PM PDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Isolated showers and breezy west winds in the mountains and deserts diminishing tonight. Warmer and drier through Wednesday followed by brief cooling and another round of breezy conditions in the mountains and deserts on Thursday. Warmer and drier again for Friday into the weekend with periods of weak offshore flow. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... Evening update... Isolated light showers remain over the region this evening, ending tonight as the upper level low progresses eastward. West winds gusting to around 25-35 mph in the mountains and deserts will gradually weaken overnight as well. Weak upper level ridging builds in from the west on Tuesday for warmer and drier weather. High temperatures will be as much as 10 to 15 degrees higher than today for inland areas, and around 5 degrees higher near the coast. The building ridge should help re-establish the marine inversion, which was wiped out with the upper low today, for areas of low clouds and fog returning Tuesday night into Wednesday morning over the coastal areas and far western valleys. Previous discussion... Slight warming with dry and mostly sunny conditions will occur on Wednesday as an area of low pressure tumbles into the Pacific Northwest. This system will traverse the Great Basin by Thursday, ushering in a broad troughing pattern. The system will stay far enough to the north to not provide any major impacts, but high temperatures will be up to 5 degrees cooler with elevated west winds across the mountains and the deserts. Winds will turn offshore late Thursday night into Friday as the system passes further inland, so we will continue to monitor how strong these winds will be which will be dependent on the exact location that this low pressure system goes. Subtle warming looks to occur by the weekend, though a large trough offshore could make things interesting as we head into the latter part of April. && .AVIATION... 130400Z...Coasts/Valleys...Isolated SHRA ending by 08Z. Otherwise multiple SCT-BKN cloud layers 2500-5000 ft MSL through 15Z, becoming FEW-SCT after 15Z. There is a 40-60% chance of CIGS with bases near 1500 ft MSL developing along the coast and spreading around 15 mi inland after 08Z Wednesday. Mountains/Deserts...West to southwest winds gusting 25-35 kt through passes and on the desert mountain slopes through 10Z. MOD up/downdrafts over and east of of mountains. Isolated SHRA/SHSN ending by 08Z. Coastal mountain slopes remaining partially obscured in clouds/fog through about 15Z. && .MARINE... Northwest winds gusting to around 20 kt in the outer coastal waters near San Clemente Island Thursday afternoon and evening generating choppy conditions. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...SS AVIATION/MARINE...SS  669 FXUS63 KGLD 140427 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1027 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Red Flag Warning is in effect for portions of the area Tuesday afternoon and evening, mainly along and south of I-70 where warm temps, low humidity and SW winds at 20-30 mph gusting to 45 mph may lead to rapid wildfire growth. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1020 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Recent model guidance/trends suggest that the northern extent of critical fire weather conditions will be located (roughly) along the I-70 corridor. With this in mind, the Fire Weather Watch for Tuesday has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning and expanded slightly northward in area to include the I-70 corridor. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 123 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Troughing for today has set up further south than what was being seen yesterday as a surface low across Nebraska wound up being further south which has inhibited the strength of the winds for today. Sustained winds of 10-20 mph remain forecasted but wind gusts with the weaker wind field may only support 25-30 mph gusts versus the potential for 40 mph that I was seeing yesterday. With the warm temperatures and humidity values in the upper single digits to low teens, despite the marginal winds will leave the Red Flag Warning in place. Overnight, strong 700-500mb vorticity is forecast to move across the area leading to an increase in mid level moisture. A cold front is also forecast to move in from the north as well which should help provide enough lift to lead to some sprinkles given the very dry air remaining at the surface. With the front an increase in dew points is forecast to occur as well across the north where some stratus and perhaps some fog may be possible as well. Tuesday, a low pressure system is forecast to develop which will send the cold front back north as a warm front. There still remains variability on exactly where the low will set up as the GFS,NAM and RAP all favor a northern location but the ECMWF ensembles and ECWMF AI keep the low further south. Similar to what was mentioned yesterday a further south low would limit the fire weather potential versus a further north would lead to greater coverage of fire weather potential. I did go ahead and issue a fire weather watch for locations south of Interstate 70 where if the northern track of the low did develop this is where the fire weather conditions should occur at. Also did issue to avoid confusion with any fire weather partners as surrounding offices do and have had fire weather products out. I do have concerns that the further south low scenario will pan out as there has been a subtle southern shift in guidance over the past 24 hours and that has been the trend with the systems in reality over the past 24 hours. Currently confidence is around 40- 45% for multiple hours of critical fire weather in the forecast area so just enough to warrant the Fire Weather Watch. Confidence has increased some in rainfall potential for northern portions of the area since confidence is increasing in the southern low scenario. Showers and storms are forecast to increase in coverage Tuesday evening as a 500mb jet stream puts northwest portions of the area in the left exit region of the jet and the increased lift within the developing low pressure system. A warm front should be along the Kansas/Nebraska line where guidance is suggest around 500 j/kg of CAPE which should be enough to lead to some thunderstorms developing. There is slim (less than 5%) chance of severe weather mainly in the form of damaging winds but with unstable lapse rates and very high shear if a updraft could sustain itself then large hail may occur as well. Wednesday, is forecast to be a little cooler on the backside of the low as winds are forecast to remain from the northwest; highs for the day are forecast in the 70s. After any lingering rain in the morning moves out drier air is again forecast to move in from the northwest but leading to perhaps marginal at best fire weather conditions across Yuma and Dundy counties, any rain from Tuesday may be enough to minimize fire weather concerns as well for at least one day. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 208 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Upper-level troughing appears to be favored across the Western United States Thursday morning. Lee cyclogenesis is favored to take place across the North-Central High Plains through the afternoon. Additionally, GEFS guidance suggests an 850-mb high pressure will exist across the Southeastern United States, and back into Mexico and Baja California. These two features look to establish southerly to southwesterly surface flow across the forecast region Thursday afternoon, yielding warm and dry conditions. Forecast highs are currently in the mid-70s to mid-80s, with relative humidities (RH) in the upper single- digits to lower-teens. Critical fire weather conditions may be a concern during the afternoon and evening hours, with wind gusts forecast in the 25-40 mph range across most of the CWA. NBM guidance suggests over a 40% chance for wind gusts to meet criteria for critical fire weather conditions across most locations in the forecast region, with over a 90% chance across portions of Eastern Colorado. Further, LREF guidance suggests over a 90% chance for RH values to meet criteria for the hazard across portions of Eastern Colorado and West-Central Kansas during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Higher end scenarios would be associated with a stronger central low pressure across portions of Eastern Wyoming and Montana, and the Western Dakotas. Confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed Thursday afternoon is currently highest for portions of Eastern Colorado, around 30%. The upper-level trough from the west looks to move across the forecast region Friday, pushing a surface low pressure across the Central High Plains eastward. A strong cold front is favored to begin traversing the forecast region sometime between the afternoon and evening hours. Critical fire weather conditions are possible ahead of the cold front, though a slower eastward progression of the surface low would be required. About 60% of GEFS and EC members are in line with a slower cold front, which could be associated with some critical fire weather conditions across portions of West- Central Kansas and East Central Colorado. However, the 40% of members that show a faster cold front would mitigate the risk across this zone. A freeze, along with some snowfall may also be experienced with this cold front. Current forecast guidance suggests low temperatures in the lower-20s to lower-30s across the forecast region Friday night, with a 40-55% chance of light snow across portions of Eastern Colorado, far Southwest Nebraska, and far Northwest Kansas. NBM guidance suggests a 30-45% chance for the snowfall to be measurable (>0.1 inches) across this zone, with over a 75% chance for sub-freezing temperatures across most of the forecast area Friday night (nearly a 100% chance across portions of West Kansas, far Southwest Nebraska, and Eastern Colorado). Cooler conditions may continue into Saturday, with forecast high temperatures in the mid-50s to mid-60s during the afternoon. Critical fire weather conditions may be experienced Saturday afternoon as well, though is highly in question considering the lower temperatures. LREF guidance suggests about a 40-60% chance for RH values to meet critical fire weather criteria Saturday afternoon across most of Northwest Kansas and Eastern Colorado. By Sunday morning, upper-level troughing looks to be fully off to our east, with upper-level ridging approaching from the Western United States. This pattern favors a return of warm and dry conditions through the end of the forecast period Monday afternoon. Forecast high temperatures are in the low to mid-70s and upper-70s to lower-80s Sunday and Monday respectively. Relative humidities may drop into the low to mid-teens both Sunday and Monday, but is currently more confined to Eastern Colorado, far Southwest Nebraska, and far Northwest Kansas on Monday, as GEFS guidance indicates that the 850-mb high across Mexico and Baja California may erode and allow a better moisture return from the Gulf of America. Forecast wind gusts in the 25-40 mph range both days may indicate further risks for critical fire weather conditions. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1020 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 GLD: VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period. Light and variable winds will this evening and overnight will shift to the WSW and increase to 10-15 knots during the mid-late morning.. then back to the SW and further increase to 20-30 knots during the afternoon. Breezy SW to WSW winds will persist through sunset. Winds are likely to shift to the NW or N at some point Tuesday eve/night.. near the end of the 06Z TAF period. MCK: VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period. A broad low pressure system will track eastward across the Tri-State Area on Tue. Low confidence in wind direction at the McCook terminal. Winds may remain variable through much of the 06Z TAF period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1020 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Tuesday: Dangerous fire weather anticipated in southern portions of the area Tuesday afternoon. Expect similarly warm/dry conditions but with stronger SW winds (~20-35 mph gusting to 45 mph), strongest south and east of Goodland. Both the northern extent and magnitude of critical fire weather conditions will highly depend on the evolution and track of a deepening low pressure system in Colorado during the day Tuesday. Recent model guidance/trends suggest that the northern extent of breezy SW winds and critical fire weather conditions will be located roughly along the I-70 corridor. With this in mind, the Fire Weather Watch on Tuesday has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning and expanded slightly northward in area to include the I-70 corridor. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MDT /noon CDT/ to 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ Tuesday for KSZ013>016-027>029-041-042. CO...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Tuesday for COZ253-254. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...Vincent SHORT TERM...Trigg LONG TERM...Davis AVIATION...Vincent FIRE WEATHER...Vincent  081 FXUS65 KRIW 140428 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 1028 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers linger into early Tuesday morning. Only a few hold on, mainly over the mountains, for Tuesday afternoon. - A cold weather system is forecast to bring widespread precipitation late Wednesday through Friday, with most locations seeing measurable snowfall by Friday. - Colder air arrives behind a Thursday cold front, which will generate north wind gusting 30 to 45 mph. A hard freeze (28 degrees or colder) looks likely (80% + chances) across the area Thursday night and especially Friday night. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1243 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 18Z satellite water vapor imagery shows two upper level lows, one over southwest Montana and another over central California. Both lows will shift east over the next 24 hours and influence our weather at the surface. The Montana low will slowly make its way into northern Wyoming this afternoon and evening and provide support for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across western and northern Wyoming. Modest instability will be present this afternoon with CAPE values up to 500 J/kg and 25 to 30kts of effective bulk shear. These values, along with terrain influence and 30 to 40 degree dew point depressions are all indicators that a few stronger thunderstorms could produce gusty 30 to 40 mph outflow winds. As for the mountains, light snow is expected to fall with snow levels ranging from 6,300 to 6,500 feet. If snow levels happen to be lower than what is forecast, the western valleys could see a rain/mix with any shower to storm. Shower and thunderstorm chances will come to an end around sunrise this evening as instability wanes and the low moves overhead. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions remain in place across central and southern Wyoming due to gusty 25 to 45 mph winds and relative humidity values below 20%. The Red Flag Warning in effect for portions of Natrona County remains in effect until 8 PM this evening. On Tuesday, light precipitation chances have been maintained across southern and western Wyoming as the aforementioned central California low traverses into Colorado. Light snow can be expected across the mountains Tuesday afternoon with snow levels around 7,000 feet. Beyond Tuesday, all focus continues to be on the winter weather and hard freeze potential Wednesday night through Friday night. Confidence continues to increase in most locations seeing snow by Friday as model guidance has remained consistent from run to run. However, we have opted to not issue any headlines at this time given this system only begins to arrive late Wednesday night and there are still a few uncertainties in amounts and timing. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 327 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 It is often said that Wyoming can experience many different seasons in a week. This is especially so during the transition time, and especially during the Spring as the battle between warm air from the south and cold air to the north holding on for dear life. We currently have another in the series of shortwaves rotating around an upper level low now moving into California. It is bringing some showers, mainly to western Wyoming. And some of this is in the form of snow, including at the Jackson Hole airport, where 700 millibar temperatures falling to around minus 4 have dropped snow levels to around 6500 feet. The steadiest precipitation should be over shortly after sunrise, but the chance of showers will linger through the day. Otherwise, things looks somewhat similar to yesterday, with a scattering of showers across the area with a few thunderstorms thrown in. Once again, the best coverage will be in western Wyoming with areas East of the Divide dry most of the day. The chance for strong storms looks less through, with cooler temperatures and less instability. And we have another concern, fire weather. The approaching shortwave will bring gusty to strong wind to portions of the area, mainly in the southwestern Wind Corridor from east of Rock Springs through Natrona County. There is a brief period of 700 millibar wind rising to 50 knots around 9 am in this vicinity. Ensemble guidance also shows a greater than 1 out 2 chance of wind gusts past 50 mph as well. However, at this point, critical fire weather looks to be the greater impact. Temperatures are running cooler than on Sunday. However, with a greater than 1 in 2 chance of relative humidity falling below 15 percent for three hours, we have decided to go with a Red Flag Warning for Natrona County. Elsewhere, relative humidity does not look to reach critical levels. Elevated fire weather is certainly a possibility though. Tuesday still looks to be a driest day across the area. Reasoning is the same as yesterday with the upper level low passing south of the area over Colorado. Models have come into better agreement with keeping the best forcing and moisture south of the area. The chance of greater than a tenth of an inch or precipitation is less than 1 out of 4 except in far southern Sweetwater County and the higher elevations of the northwest. Most areas should have a decent day with somewhat above normal temperatures and much less wind. Attention then turns to the next, stronger system moving in for the end of the week. An upper level low will move onshore in British Columbia on Wednesday and move toward Wyoming Thursday, bring a cold front and a decent amount of moisture. There is somewhat better agreement in regards to timing. A few showers may occur Wednesday afternoon, but any substantial precipitation should hold off until after sunset Wednesday. It will bring some gusty to strong wind though Wednesday into Thursday, following the usual progression of pre frontal Muddy Gap to Casper on Wednesday and Wednesday night pre frontal and transitioning to northwest / cold advection areas on Thursday and Thursday night like Buffalo, the Bighorn Basin and Wind River Basin on Thursday and Thursday night. Many locations have a greater than 1 in 2 chance of wind gusts past 45 mph during this time. However, of greater interest though is what will happen with something we desperately need, precipitation. This system is a fairly wet one, with precipitable waters as much as 150 percent of climatological normals. However, the exact track of the low is still in question as well as some mesoscale features with it. As a result, confidence remains rather low on the resultant placement of the heaviest precipitation and any potential amounts. So, this is when we dive into the wondrous realm of probabilistic and ensemble forecasting. And the National Blend of Models has good news in this regard, with a large majority of the area having a greater than 1 in 2 chance of greater than a quarter of an inch of precipitation from Wednesday night through Friday night. And this will be a cold system following the frontal passage, with snow levels falling to the basin floors Thursday evening. Most areas have at least a 1 in 2 chance of greater than an inch of snow over a similar period. Many of the northerly upslope areas, like Lander, the southern Big Horn Basin and Casper, have a greater than 1 in 2 chance of 4 inches or more. However, this is far from certain. Also, with recent warm temperatures and warm ground, any predicted amounts will likely not be the amount on peoples yards as some will likely melt initially. At this point, the most impactful time would be Thursday night into Friday morning with gradually improving conditions Friday afternoon. This is the best chance for decent moisture we have had in quite a while though. And then we move into the next question, how cold will it get? Thursday night will likely drop into the 20s, but snow and possible travel problems will likely be of greater concern during this time frame. The timeframe we are looking at is Friday night for the coldest temperatures. There are a couple of concerns though. One, the models are split on if it can clear. If it remains cloudy, temperatures may stay a bit warmer. Also, snow cover will be a big factor. If snow is lighter then expected and if the strong April sun can melt it off Friday, it might not get as cold. As we head to the ensemble guidance again, much of the area has at least a 1 in 2 chance of low temperatures falling below 20 degrees. Now, no one should be planting gardens or crops this early in Wyoming, long time residents know this. The main concern is with budding trees, flowers as well as sprinkler systems that may freeze. It is still a long way off, but we will have to watch it. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1027 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 West of the Divide...KJAC/KRKS/KPNA/KBPI Terminals A tight, compact shortwave along the western Wyoming border rotates eastward overnight. The leading edge of this shortwave produced a two-hour period of intense snowfall at KJAC, but these are beginning to fade late Monday evening. Isolated snow showers, producing intermittent IFR/MVFR conditions come to an end early in the period as the shortwave fizzles and heads east. However, the now moistened boundary layer could lead to widespread IFR/MVFR ceilings and patchy fog at KJAC overnight and into Tuesday morning. Ceilings gradually rise to VFR after sunrise Tuesday and improve further around midday. A few showers skirt southern Wyoming in the vicinity of KRKS until sunrise Tuesday. All other terminals to be VFR. West-northwest surface wind 12-22kts develops around 19Z/Tuesday at all terminals except KJAC, where a southwest wind 8-11kts begins around midday. All winds decrease between 01Z-02Z/Tuesday. Mountain tops obscured across northwest Wyoming until 20Z/Tuesday. East of the Divide...KCPR/KCOD/KRIW/KLND/KWRL Terminals All terminals to be VFR through the period. Surface wind speeds Tuesday are to be much less than those of the previous few days. After a morning lull, westerly wind 15-25kts mixes to the surface at KCOD between 20Z-22Z/Tuesday, with KRIW seeing west-northwest surface wind 15-25kts developing around 23Z/Tuesday. Otherwise, speeds remain 11kts or less at other terminals. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZLC and ZDV for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Gerhardt DISCUSSION...Hattings AVIATION...CNJ  764 FXUS62 KJAX 140428 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1228 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Moderate Risk of Rip Currents For Area Beaches Tuesday - Extreme to Exceptional Drought Continues. Dry & Warmer This Week. Dry Conditions Will Support Increase Risk of Fire Spread - Fog Potential Each Morning through Friday && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main Highlights Today and Tonight: - Near record warmth inland areas with highs upper 80s/near 90F - Locally dense fog possible during late night/early morning hours - Moderate rip current risk at NE FL/SE GA beaches High pressure conditions will continue through today and tonight with calm weather and easterly to southeasterly flow as the East Coast sea breeze pushes inland during the afternoon hours. The sea breeze will increase winds to 10-15G20 mph as it moves inland. A slightly later arrival of the sea breeze over inland areas today will allow for Max Temps to reach into the mid/upper 80s with a few highs near 90F over far inland areas which will approach near record values at some inland locations. Otherwise expect Max temps in the lower/middle 80s along the I-95 corridor and in the upper 70s/near 80F along the Atlantic Coastal areas prior to the sea breeze pushing inland. Lows generally still in the mid/upper 50s inland and lower 60s inland. Low level moisture and near calm winds towards sunrise both mornings will support patchy/areas of fog, with some locally dense fog possible between the I-95 and US-301 highway corridors. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Fog potential each morning especially inland - Dry & warm weather persist Bermuda high pressure ridging will extend west southwest across the Atlantic waters into the area during the period with daily afternoon seabreeze circulations. Stacked ridging aloft will allow for the Atlantic seabreeze to move well inland Wednesday towards I-75 under sunny skies due to the strong subsidence aloft. Thursday, increasing low to mid level southwest flow well ahead of an upstream trough will shift upper ridging southeast of the area. This will allow the Gulf seabreeze to move further inland to highway 301 along with the Atlantic seabreeze. A subtle increase in moisture will allow for few to scattered flat cumulus clouds Thursday while increasing high level winds bring in more thin wispy cirrus clouds. Light winds in the column, low level moisture from previous day's seabreeze passage, and mostly clear skies will allow for patchy to areas of fog to develop in the early to mid morning hours before lifting soon after sunrise. Highs will rise to the low 90s inland each day with upper 80s along I-95 and upper 70s to near 80 at the coast on Wednesday, then warming to around 90 along I-95 and in the low 80s at the coast Thursday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: - The dry weather will persist, with rising temperatures - Morning fog potential to continue each day. Friday, mid level trough will pass north of the region with west to southwest flow and dry, sunny conditions as the Atlantic seabreeze remains closer to the east coast. Saturday, stacked ridging returns over the FL peninsula with weak southerly flow allowing both Gulf and Atlantic seabreeze to move inland. By Sunday, a deeper mid to upper level trough will move across the deep south, pushing a cold front into the area Sunday night. However, moisture will be limited with the cold front and only have silent pops for the passage and few showers from northeast convergent flow late Monday over the Flagler coast, southern St Johns river basin, and north central FL. West to northwest winds Sunday will become northerly Sunday night and northeasterly and breezy as high pressure builds to the north Monday. Record high temperatures into the low 90s expected Friday and Saturday with isolated mid 90s over the interior, cooling slightly Sunday into the upper 80s, and then to near normal levels behind the cold front Monday. Lows will be a little above normal during the period cooling to near normal Monday night. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... VFR will prevail outside of some patchy, shallow fog that is expected to develop at or near JAX, VQQ, and GNV, and therefore we have forecast brief periods of MVFR to IFR vsby (worst for VQQ) for fog development from 06z to 12Z Tuesday. Otherwise, East to southeast winds will increase to 10G15 knots after 14Z Tuesday, then decreasing to less than 5 knots after sunset (00Z) this evening with VFR conds through the evening hours. && .MARINE... High pressure ridging will be the prevailing feature through mid to late this week, with flow gradually shifting more southeasterly to southerly over the next several days. Next frontal passage is expected Sunday Night with potential for Small Craft Advisory conditions on Monday. Rip Currents and Surf: Solid Moderate Risk of Rips will continue for NE FL/SE GA beaches in the SE/onshore flow the rest of the week with surf/breakers mainly in the 2-3 ft range. && .FIRE WEATHER... - Critical low MinRH values Inland This Afternoon - MinRH values below 30 percent inland this week High pressure ridge over the area today will create dry, sunny, and very warm conditions inland with highs in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees west of US-17. Winds will prevail from the southeast 10-15 mph over northeast FL and 5-10 mph range across inland southeast GA with gusts to 20 mph near the coast. Expect critically low MinRH values of 25-30 percent across Southeast GA locations west of US-17 and inland Northeast FL west of highway 301. Modest transport winds will keep daytime dispersions in the good range. Dry and very warm conditions remain this week due to persistent high pressure ridging into the start of next weekend. Critically low Min RH values inland will repeat each afternoon lowering to the 25-30 percent into Saturday. Wind flow pattern will prevail from the southeast Wednesday, south on Thursday, southwesterly Friday with the Gulf seabreeze moving further inland and the Atlantic seabreeze staying closer to the coast. Dispersions remain in the good range through the week. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Areas of fog will develop early this morning across inland locations with morning fog each day early morning this week. There will be potential for Localized "superfog" each morning near the vicinity of any smoke from ongoing wildfires. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures at NE FL/SE GA climate sites: April 14: JAX 90/2007, CRG 90/2023, GNV 91/2019, AMG 91/2007 April 15: JAX 90/2006, CRG 91/2001, GNV 92/1936, AMG 91/1954 April 16: JAX 90/1972, CRG 91/2011, GNV 90/1967, AMG 92/1967 April 17: JAX 93/1967, CRG 90/2006, GNV 90/1945, AMG 91/1967 April 18: JAX 94/1967, CRG 89/2018, GNV 91/1967, AMG 92/1967 April 19: JAX 92/1995, CRG 91/2013, GNV 94/2011, AMG 91/1968 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 89 56 91 60 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 77 61 79 63 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 85 57 87 59 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 81 58 81 61 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 88 55 90 57 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 88 55 89 58 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None. && $$  128 FXUS64 KTSA 140437 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1137 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1137 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 - A window for higher-end severe weather potential exists today (Tuesday) into Wednesday. - Warm, humid, and breezy southerly flow continues for much of the week. Most days will have at least a low chance of precipitation. - Another chance of showers and thunderstorms, potentially severe, is expected during the day Friday to Saturday before cooler air arrives behind a cold front. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Tuesday Night) Issued at 1137 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Quiet, mild, and breezy weather will persevere overnight tonight and through Tuesday morning. Will maintain very low PoPs (around 10%) area-wide through around midday, with an isolated shower/storm possible. For what its worth, high resolution models (CAMs) show the highest chances of light precipitation occurring in the terrain areas of southeast OK and northwest AR, where orographic lifting may produce a few showers/storms. Most locations should remain dry through at least noon Tuesday. Around midday, a positively tilted mid-level trough will begin to center itself over the Rockies. Low/mid-level ascent and upper- level divergence will overspread the region. At the surface, a sharp dryline will remain anchored across western OK. This dryline is forecast to orient itself more southwest to northeast by the afternoon. Latest CAMs suggest there may be isolated convection west of the forecast area early in the afternoon, but more robust convection is anticipated to initiate along the dryline in central/north-central OK late in the afternoon before moving into the forecast area early in the evening. Exact coverage of storms is still a little nebulous at this time, but current thinking is isolated to widely scattered storms will move into eastern OK around or just before sunset, with best overall severe potential near and north of I-44. A plethora of instability, deep layer shear, and moisture will be in place for the potential of all severe weather hazards, including large hail, damaging wind gusts, and isolated tornadoes. In fact, the atmosphere will be primed for long-track supercells to take place if cells are able to stay discrete. Despite a capping inversion trying to develop after sunset, the tornado threat will remain in place through at least mid-evening as a 40-50 knot low-level jet develops north of I-40, keeping low-level shear elevated. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will continue through the late evening and overnight hours, but at this time, the severe threat is expected to trend lower as storms continue to shift into far eastern OK and northwest AR and away from the better support for strong/severe storms. Another breezy and mild night is forecast Tuesday night, with overnight lows generally in the mid-60s. Mejia && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 1137 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A very similar, unstable weather setup will occur on Wednesday. The mid/upper-level trough from Tuesday will move over the Plains on Wednesday afternoon. Instability, moisture, deep layer shear, and lift will all be sufficient or more than enough for all severe weather hazards to occur, especially during the late afternoon and evening hours. There is still some uncertainty on how things evolve Wednesday and may or may not depend on what happens Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Models show a couple of weak perturbations ejecting ahead of the main trough axis mid-late Wednesday morning, sparking convection across eastern OK and northwestern AR through the early-mid afternoon hours. Models show an uncapped environment with these storms and they would have the potential to become severe. But the main severe potential is still expected to occur late afternoon into the evening as storms initiate off the dryline, which will be situated across central/north-central OK. Better details on the severe weather setup on Wednesday to come over the next 24 hours. The aforementioned trough will finally exit Thursday morning/afternoon. Very warm and humid conditions will continue Thursday and Friday, with afternoon high temperatures reaching the low-mid 80s both days. Another potent upper-level storm system will approach from the west on Friday, introducing the next opportunity of precipitation and will also bring additional severe thunderstorm opportunities to the area during the afternoon and evening. Details are even more indefinite with this system and more information will be added over the next few days. A cold front will push through the forecast area on the backside of the the departing storm system Friday night into Saturday morning. Precipitation chances should end by Saturday afternoon, with dry weather through at least Sunday night. Much cooler and drier weather is anticipated behind the front on Saturday, Sunday and even through the first part of the upcoming workweek, with temperatures dropping closer to seasonal average. Low-end precipitation chances may creep back into the forecast next Monday afternoon/evening as a weak and subtle wave approaches from the west. Mejia && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 634 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 VFR conditions with gusty winds will continue through the evening with any chance of overnight storms below mention at any specific terminal. Expect MVFR ceilings to develop overnight and through Tuesday morning with SE OK into NW AR having the longer duration impacts. Ceilings likely rise into VFR levels area wide during the afternoon with a chance of storms into NE OK by late afternoon with higher chances beyond this forecast period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 71 84 67 77 / 10 50 70 80 FSM 69 84 67 80 / 10 20 50 70 MLC 69 82 66 77 / 10 40 70 80 BVO 67 86 64 78 / 10 50 60 70 FYV 66 82 64 76 / 10 20 60 70 BYV 68 83 66 77 / 10 10 60 70 MKO 69 82 65 76 / 10 40 70 80 MIO 70 83 65 75 / 10 50 70 80 F10 69 82 64 76 / 10 50 70 80 HHW 66 81 65 77 / 10 20 30 60 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...67 LONG TERM....67 AVIATION...07  553 FXUS65 KVEF 140438 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 930 PM PDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Scattered showers will develop this afternoon and evening, with brief heavy rain, small graupel, and thunder possible with heaviest showers. * Calmer conditions resume Tuesday and Wednesday before gusty winds and cooler temperatures return late in the week. && .DISCUSSION...through early next week. Closed 500mb low with a cold core of -25C mid-level temps will move across the region this afternoon and evening, with increasing showers and a few isolated thunderstorms expected. Early afternoon satellite imagery depicts broad cumulus fields across much of the forecast area, but limited vertical growth so far, however, as cooler air aloft moves in in the coming hours, we expect a quick increase in shower coverage. Given the cold temps aloft, some of the stronger showers could produce small graupel and some rumbles of thunder. Quieter conditions will resume Tuesday and Wednesday as a transient ridge of high pressure builds in with temperatures returning to near normal. The break the weather will be brief however as another shortwave drops south out of the PacNW and into the Great Basin Thursday. This feature will stir up the regional winds by Thursday afternoon and drag a sharp cold front through the area Thursday evening into Friday morning. Cooler temperatures will follow for Friday along with gusty north winds, especially along the Colorado River Valley. High pressure will rebuild over the weekend with warming temps and dry weather expected. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...A few isolated wrap-around showers will be possible through 08z, with showers generally remaining light. After 08z, FEW-SCT clouds around 06-08kft with BKN clouds around 10kft will remain through 08z before dissipating. Clouds on Tuesday are expected to be FEW around 10- 15kft. Winds through 08z are expected to be west to occasional northwest, but speeds should remain less than 10 knots. Lighter winds on Tuesday with VRB 6 knots in the morning and southeast winds to around 7 knots in the afternoon. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Isolated light showers will still be possible for the Las Vegas Valley and Lower Colorado River TAF sites through 08z before ending. CIGs around 6-8kft possible near showers, but generally should remain above 10kft. Winds will also diminish overnight over most areas with speeds less than 10 knots. The exception will be near KDAG where wind gusts exceeding 25 knots will remain overnight before decreasing to less than 15 knots after 18z. Clear skies and light winds Tuesday night. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Outler AVIATION...Gorelow For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter  984 FXUS63 KUNR 140441 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 1041 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... -Mild through Thursday -Dry most places outside of NW SD today through Wed -Critical fire weather conditions, mainly along and south of I90 today, and again possibly Wednesday and especially Thursday -Much colder and unsettled for the end of the week with rain and snow possible by Friday for parts of the area && .UPDATE... Issued at 956 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Current sfc analysis shows NW-SE oriented frontal boundary sagging across the CWA with temperatures ranging from the 40s across northwestern SD and northeastern WY to the upper 50s across southwestern into south central SD. Winds across the southern tier of the FA have diminished while humidities rise as temperatures cool off, ending critical fire wx conditions across the area. A few strong to marginally severe storms popped up over northwestern SD this afternoon but that activity has dissipated as upper level impulse pushes to the east of the region. Regional radar shows shower activity in western ND with CAMs indicating some showers are possible across far northwestern SD through the overnight hours. In addition to the showers, forecast soundings show a fairly shallow moist layer over northwestern SD. Thus, have painted in some light PoPs and mentions for patchy fog for far northwestern SD from now until ~03z. Upper trof pushes into the Central Plains tomorrow with the bulk of the forcing and moisture passing to the south of our CWA, though a few light showers can't be ruled out over southern SD during the day on Tuesday with diurnally driven showers over the Black Hills Tuesday afternoon. && .DISCUSSION...(This Afternoon Through Sunday) Issued at 1055 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Central Rockies upper trough will continue to shift east with another stronger trough dropping into the Pac NW. This will support warm and mainly dry weather through most of Thur. Dry SW flow is ongoing across the southern half of the FA. Rockies trough will semi-split with the northern portion supporting a few showers and isolated TS across the far NW this afternoon/evening. However, the rest of the FA will remain dry. Compact jetlet, associated enhanced bulk shear and marginal CAPE may support an isolated strong storm on the southern flank of expected convection today, with small hail and gusty winds. Cool front starts to progress east into the area tonight. The southern portion of the trough will shift east Tues, barely skirting the southeast third of the FA, with maybe a shower or two in southwest to scentral SD. Enough instability may be present over the BH to also support a few showers there with diurnal heating. Shower chances will linger into Wed across scentral SD, as the trough moves fairly slow across the Central Plains. Mild weather will continue through Thur as WAA ensues ahead of the next upper trough Wed, which will advect SE in westerly flow out of the Pac NW. This system will force a strong cold front into the region Thur, with strong CAA and wind expected. However, this trough will split, with limited precip amounts outside of perhaps northeast WY and maybe far SW SD, effectively leaving much of western SD with little to no precip. After a couple days below normal, things quickly then warm back up next week as the next trough drops into the western CONUS and WAA spreads to its east. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Tuesday Evening) Issued At 552 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Isolated showers and thunderstorms will exit the area toward central SD over the next hour or two. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Gusty NW winds behind a cold front over the western SD plains will end later this evening. More showers and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued At 1055 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Gusty southwest winds, extremely dry air, and lack of appreciable green up will support critical fire weather conditions this afternoon mainly along and south of I90. A red flag warning remains in effect into this evening. The most critical areas will be in SW SD where RH will drop to 10 percent with winds gusting to around 45 mph in the afternoon. A cool front will drop into the area tonight with winds diminishing and RH's recovering. Mild on Tue and Wed as an upper level trough skirts south of the area. However, low RH and breezy winds may support critical fire weather conditions once again on Wed and especially Thur in the same locations. A strong cold front will move into the region Thur, with chances for rain and snow Friday, mainly across northeast WY. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ UPDATE...Wong DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC AVIATION...13 FIRE WEATHER...JC  374 FXUS65 KSLC 140445 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 1045 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Accumulating snow will continue to impact the higher terrain of central and southern Utah through Tuesday morning. - Freezing conditions will occur across eastern Box Elder County and several central and southern valley locations tonight and again Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. - Minor snow accumulations are likely across most valleys across northern/central Utah Thursday evening into Friday morning, potentially impacting the Friday morning commute. Lake-effect snow could locally enhance amounts in the central/northern Wasatch Front - Very cold temperatures in the wake of this front will bring freezing conditions to most Utah valleys excluding lower Washington County and the communities along the Virgin River near Zion National Park Thursday night into Friday morning and again Friday night into Saturday morning. && .DISCUSSION...Widespread showers are ongoing across southern Utah this evening under upper-level diffluence just ahead of the closed low centered over Las Vegas. This low will track eastward across southern Utah overnight, with the main area of precipitation exiting to our east by mid-day Tuesday alongside said low. A weak deformation band, which looked more impressive in prior model runs, could still produce snowfall rates in excess of 1"/hr overnight across the southern mountains. Ongoing Winter Weather Advisories cover this threat well. Despite overall quieter conditions tomorrow, weak, isolated showers may still develop statewide during the afternoon as a trailing shortwave quickly traverses the region. As this low brings in a colder air mass, temperatures are expected to drop near or below freezing tonight across many valleys, threatening early season agriculture. This includes Eastern Juab/Millard counties, Sanpete and Sevier valleys, and Southwest Utah, expanding to eastern valleys tomorrow night before a brief warming trend on Wednesday. Our attention then turns to the next, stronger storm system that looks pretty winter-like. Although temperatures rebound on Wednesday under shortwave ridging, a longwave trough will quickly move through the PacNW southward into Utah by Thursday. The baroclinic zone associated with this trough initially looks very impressive with a strong pressure gradient and plummeting snow levels down to valley floors behind the front. This system will also usher in more moisture with the heaviest precipitation expected along and behind the front. Current timing, which actually has pretty decent agreement among model guidance, suggests the cold front moves across the state between Thursday morning and late Thursday night. A minority (~25%) of ensemble members even suggest an earlier progression of the front. After the frontal passage, orographic showers will likely hang on overnight into Friday morning, particularly for areas favored in westerly to northwesterly flow. This timeframe will also bring the best chances for valley snow, particularly after sunset. Lake-effect will also be something to watch, given low-level moisture, steep lapse rates, cold temperatures, and a climatologically warm Great Salt Lake. Still a bit early to tell, but this could locally enhance snowfall totals in the Salt Lake Valley and/or northern Wasatch Front. Speaking of snow totals...current 25th-75th percentile output suggests 6-12 inches in the northern mountains with locally higher amounts in the Upper Cottonwoods. Across northern valleys, amounts will likely remain fairly minor given warm antecedent conditions, around 1-3 inches (2-5 for the Wasatch Back). Freezing temperatures will return for most areas by Friday and Saturday mornings...across all but lower elevations in extreme southern Utah (St. George, Lake Powell, Zion). Late Friday into the weekend, quieter conditions are expected as high pressure rebuilds. However, this may not last long, with model guidance suggesting another storm system early to mid next week. && .AVIATION...KSLC...The SLC terminal will see VFR conditions tonight through Tuesday under mid and high clouds. Light northerly winds are expected to prevail through the night, then strengthen again Tuesday afternoon. However, winds overnight may be variable at times, which could result in brief, light (less than 6kt) southerly winds. .REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Northern Utah and southwest Wyoming are expected to see VFR conditions under mid and high clouds. Across central and southern Utah, periods of valley rain and mountain snow will result in areas of mountain obscuration as well as MVFR to IFR conditions through Tuesday morning. Snow levels are expected to fall as low as 6kft overnight, and as such, southern/central Utah terminals near or above that elevation will have the greatest potential for IFR (or even briefly LIFR) conditions. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT Tuesday for UTZ103-116-118-119-122. Freeze Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning for UTZ114-115-120-121-130. Freeze Warning from 9 PM Tuesday to 9 AM MDT Wednesday for UTZ116-118-119-122. Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM MDT Tuesday for UTZ117-125. WY...None. && $$ Cunningham/Cheng For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity  119 FXUS66 KMTR 140446 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 946 PM PDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1125 AM PDT Mon Apr 13 2026 - Slightly cooler to near normal temperatures through Thursday - Periods of gusty winds, especially at higher elevations Wednesday through Friday - Warmer temperatures return Friday and Saturday before unsettled weather returns for early next week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1125 AM PDT Mon Apr 13 2026 (This afternoon through Tuesday) Lingering rain showers persist over the Pacific late this morning with these forecast to diminish through the afternoon and evening. The RRFS (rapid refresh forecast system) and other CAMs (convection- allowing models) indicate the potential for isolated rain showers across the higher terrain of the southern Diablo Range and Santa Lucia Range this afternoon, diminishing as the sunsets. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions return to the region this afternoon with afternoon temperatures forecast to be in the upper 50s to low 60s near the coast and low-to-upper 60s across the interior. However, the highest peaks may not reach much above the upper 40s to low 50s. Tonight, temperatures will be chilly across the interior North Bay Valleys and interior Central Coast with mid-to-upper 30s expected. There is a low end potential for frost, yet widespread coverage in not currently anticipated. Elsewhere, temperatures will range from the low 40s to near 50 degrees F (warmest near the coast). For Tuesday, expecting dry conditions with temperatures warming regionwide by a few degrees as a shortwave ridge builds in wake of the exiting trough. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1125 AM PDT Mon Apr 13 2026 (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Additional warming is expected on Wednesday, but only again by a few degrees. All of this is ahead of an approaching frontal boundary that is forecast to be mostly dry. However, there are chances across far northern Napa and Sonoma counties Wednesday afternoon and evening, generally less than 25%. This said, there very well may be light precipitation as far south as the Central Coast as the front moves across the region late Wednesday evening and into early Thursday morning. Little to no measurable rainfall expected with this system. In wake of this system, offshore winds are forecast to be strongest across the North Bay Mountains and East Bay hills Thursday and into Friday. This will be as the exiting system shifts into the Great Basin and/or Intermountain West. There still is some uncertainty with the exact track of this system, thus less confidence in the strength of offshore winds. However, widespread wetting rainfall across the region has greatly reduced fire weather concerns (at least in the short term). Weak ridging will build in behind the aforementioned system on Friday and Saturday with temperatures returning to near seasonal averages along with dry weather. Unsettled weather looks to return late Saturday and into early next week as another mid/upper level trough drops out of the Gulf of Alaska and approaches the West Coast. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 935 PM PDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A deep marine layer is trying to reform as the atmosphere re-stabilizes. The most likely impacts will be patchy MVFR stratus at coastal terminals, although there is a decent chance for brief impacts at inland terminals as well. There is very little chance of IFR conditions, however. Vicinity of SFO...Strong onshore wind will continue through the night and through the remainder of the TAF period. There is a 20-30% chance of MVFR ceilings between 12Z and 18Z Tuesday morning before skies clear in the late morning. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR ceilings rolled in earlier than expected at MRY, and will very likely remain through mid morning at least. The bigger question is if and when they reach SNS. The most likely window is from 10Z to 17Z, before the cloud deck starts to mix out. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 935 PM PDT Mon Apr 13 2026 The gradient between high pressure in the East Pacific and lower pressure over California will support a moderate to fresh NW breeze and moderate seas across the exposed coastal waters through Wednesday. A cold front will increase winds to near gale force late Wednesday or early Thursday, building rough seas. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...RGass LONG TERM....RGass AVIATION...Flynn MARINE...Flynn Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  938 FXUS64 KHUN 140447 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1147 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1052 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 - Low relative humidity values, dry fuels, and gusty winds will result in elevated fire weather conditions Tuesday through Wednesday. - There are medium chances (30-50%) of showers and storms on Thursday. - Medium chances (30-60%) of showers and storms return on Saturday. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of Tonight and Tuesday) Issued at 1052 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Upper level ridging building over the Southeast and surface high pressure planted over the Deep South will keep appreciable precipitation out of the forecast through at least midweek. Also, Hi-Res model guidance indicates that a pocket of drier air will form over northeast Alabama Tuesday afternoon and push northeast over the Appalachians on Wednesday. Overall, it will be dry and warm, as lows tonight merely dip into the upper 50s to lower 60s and highs on Tuesday warm into the mid to upper 80s. To put this into perspective, the record highs for both Huntsville and Muscle Shoals for April 14th is 89 degrees (set in 1917 and 1936 respectively). Our forecast highs approach these values, with 86 degrees for Huntsville and 87 for Muscle Shoals. Therefore, it will be fairly warm for this time of year! If you have outdoor activities or work outside, make sure to drink plenty of water and take breaks in the shade! In addition to these warm temperatures, it will be dry. Forecast relative humidity values drop into the 30 percent range for areas along and west of I-65 and into the mid 20 to lower 30 percent range east of I-65. This, in combination with southwesterly winds around 10-15 mph and gusts to 15-20 mph will keep elevated fire weather danger a concern. While not quite meeting Red Flag criteria, it is still important to remain cautious and take heed of any burn bans in place. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday Night through Thursday Night) Issued at 1052 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Upper level ridging over the region and surface high pressure over the Deep South will maintain their hold through Wednesday. By Thursday morning, both of these features will be shunted to the east as an upper shortwave digs over the Mississippi Valley towards the Ohio Valley and a surface low pressure system from the central Plains slides into the Midwest. A cold front associated with this system may approach the Tennessee Valley during the day and bring medium chances (30-50%) of showers and storms to the local area, mainly for northwest Alabama and up into southern middle Tennessee. There is still a bit of uncertainty with how far south the front will travel and where the best upper dynamics will be for any strong to severe storm potential. At this point, confidence is low in any strong to severe storms for north Alabama and southern middle Tennessee but this will be monitored. As for the much needed rainfall, looking probabilistically, there is a very low chance (10-20%) for areas over southern middle Tennessee and west of I-65 in Alabama to receive greater than a quarter of an inch of rain Thursday evening. Locations farther east have an even lesser chance. Therefore, confidence is low that we receive much rainfall at all on Thursday. However, this won't be our only chance at rain this week. Better chances look to be over this next weekend, so stay tuned and read more below in the Long Term section! As for temperatures through Thursday night, it will continue to be warm with highs generally in the mid 80s and lows in the 60s. Taking a look at record temperatures for April 15th to provide some context, the record highs are 88 degrees for Huntsville and 89 degrees at Muscle Shoals (both set in 2006). Keep that in mind if you have outdoor activities on Wednesday and remember heat safety! Drink plenty of water and take frequent breaks in the shade! Before moisture increases on Thursday ahead of the aforementioned surface front, the dry conditions mentioned in the short term will persist into Wednesday. Relative humidity values are forecast to drop into the upper 20 to lower 30 percent range during the day. In addition, it will also be breezy with another day of southwesterly winds around 10-15 mph and gusts to 15-20 mph. Therefore, elevated fire weather concerns will persist. Please be cautious as any fires that develop will likely spread more rapidly than expected! && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 1052 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 The extended forecast period will begin with a continuation of warm/dry conditions, as a 500-mb ridge builds northeastward in the wake of a low amplitude shortwave trough and weak surface low tracking eastward across the northern Mid-Atlantic states. With only a few high-based cumulus anticipated beneath a strengthening mid- level inversion and light SSW flow in the low-levels, most valley locations will experience highs in the u80s-l90s. Low-level flow will begin to increase on Friday evening as a deepening vort max (embedded within the base of a broader trough extending from southern Canada into the northern Plains) begins to eject northeastward into the MO Valley, resulting in development of a frontal wave that will lift northeastward from KS into WI by 12Z Saturday. Latest model guidance suggests that both the mid-level wave and surface low will undergo substantial intensification as they progress further northeastward into eastern OT/western QC by 12Z Sunday, with showers and thunderstorms expected to develop along the length of the trailing cold front and perhaps a prefrontal surface trough (from IL/IN into the northwestern Gulf Coast) Saturday afternoon. As the cold front begins to overtake the surface trough across the TN Valley Saturday evening, chances for much needed rainfall will increase across our forecast area, but there remains a large amount of uncertainty regarding rainfall amounts (ranging from around 0.05-0.10" as a worst case scenario to 0.5-0.75" as a best case scenario). This is likely due to the combination of substantial amount of lingering CINH noted in forecast soundings and a narrow plume of modified Gulf moisture which will only overspread the entire region immediately in advance of the front. Should the low/mid-level thermodynamic profile improve, rainfall amounts would likely be closer to the best case scenario, and a few strong storms capable of producing gusty winds would also be probable given sufficiently strong WSW flow aloft (45-55 knots) for updraft organization. Regardless, the front appears as if it will be exiting our region early Sunday morning, with any lingering precipitation ending in our southeastern zones around 12Z Sunday. A cooler/drier continental airmass will overspread the region for the remainder of the period, featuring highs in the u60s-l70s Sunday and overnight lows in the l-m 40s Monday morning. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1147 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the period with a mostly clear sky. Winds may become gusty out of the SSW/SW this afternoon between 10-15 kts, before weakening after sunset. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...AMP.24 SHORT TERM....26 LONG TERM....70 AVIATION...AMP.24  759 FXUS63 KFGF 140454 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1154 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Brief heavy snow may impact the Tuesday morning commute in Devils Lake basin and northern Red River Valley. - There is a 30% chance for advisory level winter impacts from accumulating snow and gusty winds Friday to Saturday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1154 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Rain showers starting to move into the western Devils Lake Basin as the next shortwave approaches. Also getting a few weak thunderstorms in the southern Red River Valley that are not handled well by CAMs but are with around 250 J/kg of MU CAPE. This activity will continue to push eastward across our area overnight, and many of the ensemble members transition at least part of the precipitation in northeastern ND and northwestern MN over to snow. 00Z HREF has 40 to 50 percent chances for an inch or more of snow, although fairly warm pavement temps will mute the impact. Will keep the SPS going as advisory level impacts seem less than 20 percent. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 324 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will remain in place over much of the West to Northern Plains this week. This will house numerous shortwave troughs moving through the exit region of the broader upper trough, with this upper trough's axis finally shifting eastward through the central CONUS late this week. This synoptic pattern will provide intervals of precipitation today and Tuesday, as well as Friday to Saturday. This includes potential for snow and associated winter impacts both Tuesday and later this week. More details on this below. With the upper trough passage through our area around Friday to Saturday increasing chances for precipitation, there is a scenario where increasing instability works its way into Minnesota and/or eastern Dakotas to allow for thunderstorms. At this time, it remains unclear if this will occur as there is much uncertainty in numerous preceding shortwave trough passages through the Plains and Midwest that will dictate this buoyant air mass's location. The upper troughing will be oriented in such a way that above average temperatures will overspread our portion of the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest, with highs in the 60s and 70s currently forecast Wednesday and Thursday. With the incoming upper trough passage late this week, a cooler, more seasonable air mass will envelope Northern Plains into Upper Midwest. ...Potential winter impacts Tuesday morning... There is high confidence in an area of precipitation moving generally southwest to northeast across our area north of I-94 corridor. A large subset of high resolution guidance reveals temperatures in northeast ND into far northwest MN will be close enough to freezing to allow some of this precipitation to fall as snow. In fact, relatively strong ascent with rich moisture feeding into the ascent will allow for heavy snow rates between 1-2 inches per hour. Given the relatively fast forward movement of this precipitation, the time for heavy snow rates to reside over any particular location in these areas will be brief (i.e. 1-3 hours at any location). While majority of high resolution guidance depicts this scenario, there are still differences in where exactly this occurs within these region as the areas potentially impacted by snow will likely be quite narrow. Additionally, there is anticipation of relatively warm surface temperatures leading to melting on contact. Although, these higher snow rates will likely overcome warm surfaces to allow for at least some accumulation on non-grassy surfaces. Anywhere from 1-5 inches is liable to fall, with more than 3 inches more likely to be on grassy surfaces. Heavy snow rates will greatly reduce visibility, and may lead to slippery roads from a slushy accumulation. And with this occuring during the morning commute, we've amplified messaging of this potential via graphical messaging as well as issuing a Special Weather Statement. ...Late week winter impact potential... Ensemble guidance continues to cluster toward a scenario that features heavy snow in one or two more consolidated systems' deformation zones. However, most guidance favors majority of this snow to remain in Canada. There is still a subset of guidance that brings snow into our area, mainly north of Highway 200. This includes snow accumulation up to 5 inches. Snow may also coincide with gusty winds to introduce impacts from blowing snow and reduced visibility into this scenario. Additionally, ensembles now reveal a potential scenario that brings a second wave of precipitation and snow through the region on Saturday. This widens the window of when winter impacts may occur from solely Friday to now Friday into Saturday. Ensemble guidance has also trended some what down on potential for warning level impacts from 6 or more inches of snow to be less than 10%. However, the chance for advisory level winter impacts remains at around 30%. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1154 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Mostly VFR between this evening's showers and the next system starting to move in. KDVL has already gone down to MVFR and should see some rain by the time the 06Z TAFs are valid. MVFR to IFR ceilings will spread across the forecast area overnight, with the IFR stratus already starting in across southeastern ND. As for visibility, those sites with some rain or even a bit of snow showers could see some drops to 1 or 2 miles, but think the worst vis will stay north of the TAF sites. Winds will be generally range from northeasterly to northwesterly at 8 to 15 kts, eventually decreasing below 8 kts by the end of the period. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...JR DISCUSSION...CJ AVIATION...JR  747 FXUS65 KCYS 140455 AAA AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 1055 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered rain and snow showers in Carbon and Albany counties late tonight into Tuesday morning may result in a few slick spots along the I-80 corridor and accumulating snow above about 8500 feet in elevation. - A strong but compact system will bring a chance for rain to the High Plains, mainly Tuesday afternoon and evening. - Warmer and drier weather returns for Wednesday and Thursday, bringing elevated to critical fire weather conditions and marginally high winds in the wind prone areas. - A potent weather disturbance will produce windy, colder and wetter weather for Thursday night and Friday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Warm and dry conditions remain over the area once again today. Breezy to windy conditions are producing widespread critical fire weather conditions. Current GOES water vapor imagery shows a messy synoptic weather pattern across the western CONUS. At least three disorganized upper level lows are circulating over the area. As each of these features traverses east, we will have a complex setup heading into Tuesday. The main player will be the nearly closed low currently over southern California which will move off to the northeast over the next 24 hours, but this will get interference from another upper level low currently over the northern Rockies. Upper level moisture will increase from the southwest, supporting a few virga showers this afternoon and evening. As moisture aloft improves, these will be more likely to reach the ground especially after midnight or so. Look for rain and snow showers to spread across Carbon and Albany counties into Tuesday morning. Snow levels will start out between 6500 and 7500 feet, supporting a rain snow mix along I-80 between Cheyenne and Rawlins. Due to the pre-dawn timing, there could be some light accumulations and slick spots in these areas with daybreak Tuesday, but conditions should improve quickly with the strong April sun. The higher peaks will also benefit from much better orographic lift. Above 10,000 feet or so, probabilities for 6" or more of snow are around 50 to 65%. This could warrant a low end Winter Weather Advisory, but opted to pass on this due to the marginal totals confined only to the highest peaks. Still, travelers in the mountains should prepare for some areas of snow and slick conditions Tuesday morning. Further east, a southwest to northeast oriented low-level convergence boundary is expected to kick off elevated shower activity, but it will be harder to overcome the dry boundary layer east of the Laramie Range. Still, PoPs in the 15 to 40 percent range are present over the area. Surface winds will be all over the place on Tuesday, but speeds should be fairly light with the possible exception of the I-80 corridor between Laramie and Sidney where east to southeast winds may be gusty at times. Heading into Tuesday afternoon, the approaching upper level low will support lee-cyclogenesis over northeast Colorado. The morning convergence boundary supporting the shower activity will get pulled into the strengthening system as it moves off to the northeast. Models show fairly potent mid level frontogenesis as this occurs, and a very narrow TROWAL developing by Tuesday evening as the system departs. The main uncertainty is where exactly this occurs. The overall system will be extremely compact, such that a difference in 50 to 100 miles in the exact location of lee cyclogenesis could mean the difference between beneficial rainfall and nothing at all for the High Plains. In addition to the synoptic forcing, a few hundred J/kg of CAPE are expected to be present, so some isolated embedded thunderstorms will be possible. The most likely scenario tomorrow evening will be a band of moderate rainfall traversing from west to east across the area, with potential for localized areas receiving over 0.25" of rainfall. There are still a few ensemble members (and the deterministic GFS) that keep the forcing for rainfall entirely south of our area, but model consensus is for this to occur somewhere likely south of a Wheatland to Chadron line. Overall confidence is pretty low in precipitation amounts and location, but there will be a high ceiling too due to the strong but narrow forcing and plentiful mid to upper level moisture. Light rain may continue after midnight, but we should be done with this system by Wednesday morning. Ridging will rebound over the area on Wednesday into Thursday, resuming the mild and dry weather pattern that has dominated this season so far. Look for temperatures around 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal averages on Wednesday, climbing closer to 15 degrees above average for Thursday east of the Laramie Range. Expect breezy westerly flow on Wednesday, which will turn southwesterly on Thursday ahead of the next system diving into the Pacific northwest. Widespread elevated to near critical fire weather conditions will be present both days. In addition, we will need to watch for another round of marginally high winds. The wind prone areas have approximately a 30 to 40% chance for high winds on Wednesday. As the flow turns more southwest Thursday, this will decrease to around 10 to 20% for the I-80 summit and Bordeaux areas, but increase to around 50 to 60% for the Arlington and Elk Mountain areas. This may also extend a little further west than usual, perhaps into the Rawlins area. LREF median 700-mb winds are around 45 knots over Rawlins Thursday morning, which gives probabilities around 50 to 60% here as well. As is typical with southwest flow, we will also have to watch Converse county, which currently has a 30% chance for seeing high winds on Wednesday night and Thursday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Thursday night-Friday...A progressive and sharp trough aloft and its associated cold front move from Idaho and Utah Thursday evening, to western Wyoming late Thursday night, with the cold front passing our counties Thursday night. The trough axis aloft tracks across our counties during the day on Friday. Fairly high confidence in scattered to numerous rain and snow showers spreading from west to east Thursday night, with likely to widespread snow showers Friday afternoon. Much cooler and windy on Friday with maximum temperatures in the mid 30s and 40s. Winter weather highlights may be needed for the mountains and nearby locations. Saturday...Snow showers will gradually end from west to east early in the day, as the shortwave trough aloft moves into the northern Great Plains states. Strong low and mid level northwest flow will help produce a windy day, with possible high winds for our wind prone locations. Somewhat warmer than Friday with 700 mb temperatures near 6 Celsius. Sunday...The flow aloft weakens as low amplitude shortwave ridging aloft develops over Wyoming, producing dry conditions and mild temperatures in the upper 50s and 60s with 700 mb temperatures near 2 Celsius. Monday...Ridging aloft moves over our forecast area, with surface lee troughing over our eastern counties, producing a dry and mild day. 700 mb temperatures near 8 Celsius will yield maximum temperatures in the mid 60s west of I-25, with 70s east of I-25. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1055 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A Pacific disturbance is forecast to push eastward along the Wyoming/Colorado border into late Tuesday afternoon. Scattered to numerous showers, some high elevation snow, and even a few thunderstorms are possible along the Interstate 80 corridor and close to the Colorado border 09z through 00z Wednesday. HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: Low confidence Aviation forecast over the next 18 hours, particularly over the southeast Wyoming terminals and KSNY. Expect VFR conditions to prevail at KCDR, KBFF, and KAIA with maybe a few light showers Tuesday afternoon. Further south, limited confidence in precip coverage and forecast VIS over KRWL and KLAR due to some snowfall or rain/snow mix. Even less confidence for KCYS and KSNY with model solutions showing poor run to run consistency for these two locations. Fow now, will keep the best chance for IFR conditions and brief periods of snow to KLAR even though probabilities for IFR are less than 15%. Added a mention of TSRA for KSNY with high res guidance in somewhat good agreement with thunderstorm activity confined to that region late Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening. Any MVFR or IFR conditions are expected to be brief and/or rapidly fluctuate. Expect clearing skies at all terminals after 03z Wednesday once the disturbance ejects eastward into the Great Plains. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MN LONG TERM...RUBIN AVIATION...TJT  454 FXUS63 KDTX 140455 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1255 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Stretch of warm conditions throughout the work week with daytime temperatures in the 70s each day for most locations. - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms develop tonight. Potential exists for isolated severe storms capable of producing wind gusts to 60 mph and large hail. Locally heavy rainfall also possible. - An active pattern will maintain periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday. Each episode brings the possibility for locally heavy rainfall. - There is a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms Tuesday night, mainly between 8 pm and 2 am. Storms will be capable of producing wind gusts to 60 mph, large hail and isolated tornadoes. && .AVIATION... Ascent provided by low level jet and warm advection will bring showers and thunderstorms to the terminals overnight. Line of convection trailing a center of low pressure is expected to push across Southeast Michigan in the 8-12z timeframe. Timed out TEMPO group for thunderstorms from north to south. Low level saturation and cloud is anticipated early Tuesday, included prevailing MVFR ceilings. Dry conditions for much of Tuesday with another period of thunderstorm activity after 03z 4/15. DTW/D21 Convection...Thunderstorm activity is possible between 10- 14z Tuesday. .DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * High for ceilings aob 5000 feet tonight and Tuesday. * Moderate for thunderstorms early Tuesday morning. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 252 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 DISCUSSION... Higher magnitude warmth within breezy southwest wind marking conditions late afternoon. High temperatures again arriving a solid 15 to 20 degrees above normal - mid to upper 70s most locations. General mid level stability will hold into the early evening hours as shortwave upper ridging propagates through, ensuring dry conditions persist into the early evening hours. Attention then turns to two seperate areas of focus for convective development and expansion tonight. Remnant convective cluster evident on water vapor and radar lifting northeast into northern IL now forecast by an increasing number of hi res solutions to maintain some degree of integrity as it ejects across southern lake MI/northern IN. This will occur with the backdrop of another period of nocturnal warm/moist air advection as 850 mb flow strengthens within southwest flow across the warm sector. Forecast now highlights an increasing potential for convective development/expansion within the 00z-06z window as associated ascent works through. Any late evening activity likely to be slightly elevated as nocturnal boundary layer cooling affords a standard stable near surface layer. With that, isolated deeper updrafts plausible given the steepness of lapse rates above the stable layer, with adequate bulk shear for greater organization. This maintains potential for some instances of larger hail and gusty winds, in addition to brief heavy rainfall. Additional convective organization and expansion expected this evening along/north of a frontal boundary extending across central WI. This activity likely to consolidate with time as it spills east/southeast into the early morning hours, but mixed signal yet on both trajectory and scale. Steep mid level lapse rates will maintain a risk for hail with any healthier cores. Latest SPC Day 1 outlook continues to highlight all of Southeast Michigan within a Marginal Risk for severe weather for tonight. The resident airmass remains virtually unchanged heading into Tuesday. Some degree of stability may exist for a portion of the daylight period, pending the coverage and pace of exit of overnight activity. Solid diurnal destabilization likely by afternoon, at least across the south, where MLCAPE pushes 1500+ as temps again climb well into the 70s and dewpoint hovers in the lower 60s. Some evidence of a weak frontal zone or differential heating boundary bisecting the area. This could offer a lower coverage of convection for peak heating. Otherwise, still no evidence of more meaningful forced ascent materializing prior to 00z Tuesday evening. Existing mid level southwest flow ripe with minor perturbations and bouts of greater moist isentropic ascent continue to present a favorable, yet challenging background environment to gauge convective potential locally Tuesday night. There remains strong model evidence for convective initation and expansion to occur in the vicinity of the frontal boundary across northern IL/southern WI and western lower MI Tuesday evening. Very supportive environment will exist for the maintenance and possible upscale growth of this activity into portions of southeast Michigan sometime within the 00z to 04z window. While the nocturnal timing brings lessening instability with time near the surface, MuCape projected to exceed 2000 j/kg. Frontal zone now draped across the Saginaw valley and thumb will offer a greater focus across this region. In fact, noteworthy backed/southeast low level flow at the frontal interface gives pause to the possibility for organized updrafts to rotate. A mix of discreet and multicellular clusters will bring the risk of all hazards - strong winds, large hail and isolated tornadoes. All of Southeast Michigan remains with a Slight Risk for severe weather Tuesday night. Some areas of heavy rainfall also a concern given expectation for efficient rates given high end moisture content /PW near 1.3"/. Mild/moist airmass still entrenched Wednesday and Thursday. Outgoing forecast continues to highlight expectation for a high coverage of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday, but some downward revision in precip chances possible as greater focus may again hold to the south and west during the daylight period. Another nocturnal convective response likely Wed night as moisture transport increases along the nose of the low level jet. Periodic chances for additional showers and thunderstorms lasting into Thursday. Dry and continued mild Friday, then rain chances increase again early next weekend. MARINE... Shortwave ridging this afternoon has led to pleasant marine conditions under a modest southwest breeze. Pockets of 25 knot gusts are observed over land, but quickly drop off offshore where profiles are more stable. Attention turns to an upstream cluster of thunderstorms over northern Illinois that will track into southeast Michigan after sunset this evening. These storms will be capable of large hail to an inch, frequent lightning, and isolated gusty winds over 35 knots. This will be the first of several rounds of nocturnal thunderstorms this week as multiple waves of low pressure ripple along a stalled frontal zone. Each round of storms will bring potential for strong to severe storms to the southern half of Lake Huron, Lake St. Clair, and western Lake Erie. The front is forecast to hover around the Saginaw Bay area, with northerly winds emerging north of front and southwest winds for points south. Wind and wave concerns this week will be tied to thunderstorm activity. HYDROLOGY... An active pattern will bring periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms tonight through Thursday. Each episode brings the possibility for locally heavy rainfall, particularly where focused areas of thunderstorms develop. Rainfall amounts in excess of half an inch will be possible for a round of rain tonight. Additional rainfall between one and two inches currently forecast to fall between Tuesday and Thursday. While widespread flooding is not expected, some minor flooding of low lying, poor drainage and urban areas along with rises on area rivers are possible. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ AVIATION.....CB DISCUSSION...MR MARINE.......MV HYDROLOGY....MR You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.  375 FXUS62 KFFC 140458 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 1258 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1257 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Fire weather concerns will persist this week given the ongoing very dry and warm conditions. - Temperatures will remain well above normal through the weekend. Some could approach daily record highs by mid-week. - With little chance of appreciable rainfall over the next 7 days drought conditions will worsen. && .UPDATE... Issued at 936 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 The Red Flag Warning has been allowed to expire. Winds have slackened, and weak moisture rebounds are expected to continue overnight. Minimum relative humidity values will remain at or below critical thresholds tomorrow, and a Fire Danger Statement has been issued for all of north and central Georgia for Tuesday afternoon and evening amid continued anomalously dry conditions. 96 && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 149 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 There will be no change with respect to the ongoing hot and dry stretch with temperatures resuming their upward swing on Tuesday. Atlantic high pressure will maintain its grip at the surface while the resurgent ridge will keep any precipitation/frontal boundaries repelled well to our north and west. Without the impact of today's broken high clouds, highs will warm back into the mid to upper 80s on Tuesday with a few 90 degree readings possibly sneaking into parts of central Georgia. Dangerous fire weather conditions will persist with details expounded upon in the Fire Weather section of the AFD below. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday morning through next Sunday) Issued at 149 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Very Warm and Dry Pattern Continues: A strong ridge extending from the Gulf up across the Southeast US will keep very warm and dry conditions in place throughout this week. This persistent weather can be attributed to a textbook omega-block synoptic pattern, with deep troughing on both sides of the ridge. Dry air from the mid to high latitudes wrapping around the east side of the ridge will keep PWAT values over Georgia generally under 0.75-1", resulting in near zero rainfall chances. One exception to this could be late Thursday, as model guidance continues to have a shortwave pushing across the Midwest and TN Valley. Rainfall chances with this feature will depend on how strong it is as crashes into the ridge, but for now it looks like a 10-20% chance for rain showers in very far NW GA. The dry airmass and low rain chances this week will only worsen our ongoing drought conditions, and likely lead to daily fire weather concerns. High and low temperatures during this period will end up around 12-20 degrees above normal. This will translate to high temperatures in the 80s to low 90s through Saturday. Daily records would be in jeopardy with those temps, and we could see our earliest 90 degree day on record for the Atlanta area. Overnight lows will only drop to the low to mid 60s. The one benefit of the lower moisture/humidity is that heat index values would not be a concern during this period. Cooler with Slight Rain Chances Late This Weekend? Confidence in the forecast starts to drop off after Saturday due to a fairly large spread in model guidance, but there continues to be a growing number of ensemble members showing the synoptic pattern finally starting to breakdown and progress. This progression, with the ridge over the Southeast getting kicked out while broad troughing sets up over most of the Eastern US, would initially bring a cold front and rain chances through the area, with cooler and dry conditions to follow for early next week. Unfortunately, most of the latest ensemble members do not have much moisture with this front, and only have a decent chance of 0.10" of rainfall in far NW GA. If this forecast holds, most of the area will continue to remain rain-free through at least early next week, worsening drought conditions even further. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 738 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 VFR conds to continue with primarily SKC/FEW cigs at 20-25kft. Winds will remain out of the SW at 5-10kts, and may go CALM/VRB at times overnight. //ATL Confidence...00Z Update... High confidence all elements. 96 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 59 88 60 87 / 0 0 0 0 Atlanta 61 87 62 86 / 0 0 0 0 Blairsville 55 85 56 83 / 0 0 0 0 Cartersville 58 89 59 88 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 58 88 59 87 / 0 0 0 0 Gainesville 60 87 62 86 / 0 0 0 0 Macon 57 89 59 88 / 0 0 0 0 Rome 57 89 58 87 / 0 0 0 10 Peachtree City 57 87 58 86 / 0 0 0 0 Vidalia 60 92 61 91 / 0 0 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM....Culver AVIATION...96