775 FXUS64 KSJT 140500 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1200 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorm chances will persist Monday into Wednesday, with a threat for severe storms each day. - A cold front is expected on Saturday, bringing low rain chances and considerably cooler temperatures for the upcoming weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 228 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Dryline extended just west of West Central Texas from near Snyder south to Big Spring to east of Ft Stockton. There was some cumulus developing west of Crockett county and in the Big Country. SPC Day One Convective Outlook has been increased the marginal risk of severe thunderstorms, to a slight risk in the Big Country, which extended southward into Runnels, Coleman and Brown Counties. The best potential for severe storm this afternoon and evening is across the Big Country and western sections of the Concho Valley and Crockett county, where the short term convective models develop isolated thunderstorms. Instability is quite high with MUCAPES of 3000 J/KG, with effective bulk shears of 40-45 KTS, so if a storm does develop, it could become severe, with large hail and damaging winds. Storms movement will be mainly northwest, but stronger storms could take a right turn eastward. Tuesday, shower and thunderstorm chances will increase as an upper shortwave approaches from the west. While the best lift will be Tuesday night, thunderstorms possible earlier in the day. There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across most of West Central Texas Tuesday. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Monday) Issued at 235 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 As mentioned in the short term discussion, a shortwave trough will approach the region from the west in the afternoon and evening. Showers and thunderstorms will develop off the dryline and move eastward into the area in the evening and persist into the overnight hours. Most of west central Texas is now in a slight risk for severe weather during this time. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary hazards given moderate instability and steep lapse rates aloft. Convective evolution is less certain during the day on Wednesday as morning storms could limit destabilization in the afternoon. Did lower PoPs in the afternoon especially across our eastern counties. Isolated storms would likely initiate along the dryline by the late afternoon across our western counties. Large hail and damaging winds would once again be in play. Mainly dry conditions are expected on Thursday and Friday, with highs warming into the mid to upper 80s. A cold front is still forecast to move into the area on Saturday bringing cooler temperatures and a chance of showers for the weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1151 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Satellite shows that the low clouds are not developing quite as quickly as they have in previous nights, so will delay the onset a few hours. Still expect most areas to see MVFR cigs by sunrise and persist into the mid/late morning hours before lifting and dissipating. Gusty south winds will also persist and will gust over 20kts at times. Thunderstorm chances are still a question, with considerable uncertainty on timing and location. With at least most of the activity holding off until after 00Z, will go ahead and leave out of the forecast for now and see if some better consensus can be achieved. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 68 82 65 84 / 20 60 80 50 San Angelo 66 81 63 85 / 20 50 60 50 Junction 64 82 62 80 / 20 30 40 60 Brownwood 66 81 64 78 / 10 40 60 70 Sweetwater 67 83 65 87 / 20 50 60 40 Ozona 66 77 63 82 / 20 50 60 40 Brady 66 79 64 77 / 10 30 50 70 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....42 AVIATION...07  035 FXUS63 KOAX 140502 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1202 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this week, particularly Tuesday and Friday. - Thursday will be a drying day as a ridge moves in between systems. - Possible temperature impacts are expected for those with agricultural interests heading into the weekend. Expected lows Saturday and Sunday morning will be in the 20s and 30s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1201 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The forecast period begins with southwest flow over the region and an upper level trough over northwestern Arizona. Low pressure develops on the lee side of the Rockies overnight, lifting into extreme southwestern Nebraska and central Nebraska by daybreak Tuesday. Tuesday morning, a warm front develops as far north as Omaha/Council Bluffs. Temperatures are expected to climb into the 80s behind the front and the 70s to the north of it. Heading further into the day, the front will sag southward a little bit, nudging a little closer to the NE/KS border. Late afternoon into the evening, instability will increase across southeastern Nebraska/southwestern Iowa. SBCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg and MLCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg are expected. Storms are expected to develop along the warm front during the evening, a few of which may become strong to severe. Large hail and damaging wind gusts appear to be the main concerns with any storms that are able to develop. The severe potential could go into the early morning hours. The active weather pattern will continue through the rest of the week with another shortwave trough lifting out of the Four Corners region Tuesday and reaching southern Nebraska/northern Kansas by Wednesday morning. The low will remain over eastern Nebraska Wednesday morning, with a few showers and thunderstorms possible through the day. The low is expected to lift slightly to the north on Wednesday, bringing some wrap around moisture to northern Nebraska. PoPs will decrease southwest to northeast heading into the evening hours as the low exits. A few isolated strong storms may develop in the southeastern part of the CWA Wednesday evening. Thursday is still expected to be a dry out day as a ridge moves across the region. After the brief cool down (highs in the 70s) on Wednesday, warm air advects into the region. Expect widespread 80s for highs Thursday afternoon. Friday will be a day to watch as we get closer to the end of the week. Low pressure develops on the lee side of the Rockies with an attendant cold front moving into the region. An upper level trough over the Four Corners region will lift to the northeast into the area by Friday night. The cold front will be ushering in much cooler air with WAA and moisture advection ahead of it. There is still uncertainty in where the cold front reaches and the timing of everything. Strong to severe storms with this set up are expected, with all hazards possible. There is still considerable uncertainty in some of the forecast details for this period, so continue to monitor the forecast for potential changes. Cooler air pushing in behind the front will result in a cooler weekend. Saturday morning lows will be in the 30s, with low 30s expected from David City to Thurston and areas north. Those with agricultural interests will want to keep an eye on temperatures. Highs will struggle into the 50s for much of the area. A few locations will not make it into the 50s. Saturday night/Sunday morning will be cold once again with lows ranging from the mid-20s to the mid-30s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 630 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 VFR conditions persist at the terminals through the forecast period. Winds will decrease over the next couple of hours at KOMA and KLNK. An area of low pressure moving across the region will result in winds shifting through the forecast period. Light and variable winds are expected overnight, increasing again tomorrow morning. There will be an isolated chance of a few showers or thunderstorms in the vicinity of KOFK through 10pm. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ANW AVIATION...ANW  550 FXUS63 KFSD 140504 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 1204 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy dense fog is possible tonight. While the best chances are east of I-29 (40-50%) patchy valley fog is possible as far west as the James River Valley. Fog should burn off by mid to late morning. - Periodic chances (20-60%) for showers and thunderstorms continue this week. Details remain uncertain at this time. - Thursday and Friday Elevated to near Critical Fire Danger is possible, due to gusty winds and low relative humidity. && .UPDATE... Issued at 901 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Showers and thunderstorms have pushed east of our region. Mostly quiet conditions are expected overnight as winds become light and variable. Short term guidance indicates about a 40-50% chance of patchy dense fog development after midnight tonight. While the highest chances for fog are east of I-29, very patchy valley fog may form as far west as the James River Valley. Fog should burn off by mid to late morning. Slightly cooler highs in the upper 60s and 70s Tuesday thanks to CAA behind the departing low pressure. Winds will be slightly breezy out of the north gusting 15-20 mph. While relative humidity values will remain above critical thresholds, High Fire Danger will still be present over south central South Dakota Tuesday afternoon. Please continue to use caution and report any fires immediately. By Tuesday afternoon a wave approaches from the west bringing chances for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. These storms are not expected to be severe and will be very spotty in nature. Most will not see any rain during the day Tuesday. Tuesday evening the surface low approaches from the southwest reinvigorating shower and thunderstorm chances. The better dynamics lay to the southeast of our forecast area, but a few stronger thunderstorms are possible east of I-29 Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. Shower chances hang around through much of the day on Wednesday before clearing out Wednesday afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 238 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Scattered thunderstorms are set to develop over the next few hours, bringing the potential for a few severe storms with large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two. As of 2 pm, a surface low is located over northern Nebraska with a warm front extending northeast of it across far southeastern South Dakota into northwest Iowa. Dew points in the 60s have been gradually spreading northward, and these higher dew points are expected to reach the I-90 corridor over the next couple of hours. This boundary will be the focus of initial storm development, with these storms having access to 35-50 kts of effective bulk shear and 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. There are questions though on how much some high clouds have limited the area from reaching full heating potential, but if a storm can get going then steep mid level lapse rates of 7.5-8.5 degrees C/km and mostly straight, elongated hodographs will favor large hail to around 2 inches in diameter or larger. The secondary threat will be damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph. If a storm can get rooted to the aforementioned surface warm front, then a tornado or two will also be possible. Can't rule out a strong tornado either, primarily over southwest Minnesota. As the low pressure system drift across the area, a few additional showers and storms look to develop farther south across northwest Iowa (down to about IA Highway-3, or just north of US Highway-20) within the warm sector around sunset. These storms could also be on the strong to severe side, with an isolated instance of quarter sized hail and 60 mph as the threats. Showers and storms will exit off to our east by the mid evening hours, leaving mostly quiet conditions in its wake. A few showers may develop in central South Dakota prior to daybreak Tuesday, but dry air should win out and prevent most if not all of this from reaching the ground. Patchy fog will also be possible by early Tuesday morning across portions of northwest Iowa and southwest Minnesota as winds turn light and variable overnight and ample moisture remains in place. Temperatures tonight drop mainly in the 40s, though some 50s are possible in our easternmost areas. Low chances for showers continue into the day on Tuesday, but activity is expected to remain spotty at best as rain continues to battle a dry sub cloud layer. Highs will range from the 60s northwest to 70s southeast. Rain chances look to increase Tuesday night into Wednesday as two shortwave troughs impact our area. The best chances of rain and storms look to be over northwest Iowa and adjacent areas of Nebraska, South Dakota, and Minnesota. At this time, severe weather looks unlikely with this system as the better instability looks to be off to our south and east. Rain and storms exit off to our east by Wednesday night, leading to a dry Thursday. Winds look to increase on Thursday especially west of I-29 closer to a deepening surface low, and winds may take on a southwesterly component especially in south central South Dakota. This could lead to another day with higher fire danger as temperatures will be warm and relative humidity values drop to 25% or below mainly along and west of the James River. Still some uncertainty into how breezy the winds will be, so keep up to date with the latest forecast. Not too much time to look into the extended forecast given the near term severe weather threat, but guidance is in fairly good agreement that the western trough will begin to move into our area by the end of the work week/early weekend. This could bring more rain and storms to our area on Friday and then colder weather into Saturday as guidance indicates a stronger push of cold air advection behind this system. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1156 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Mainly VFR conditions with occasional MVFR to IFR vsbys are expected this TAF period. Taking a look at satellite imagery, most clear conditions persist tonight. While these conditions should persist for the next few hours, developing fog across northwestern IA and potentially our River Valleys could lead to occasional MVFR to IFR vsbys especially as locally dense patches develop. Otherwise, should any fog gradually erode by mid-morning on Tuesday. Light northerly to northwesterly winds will persist for most of the day. Lastly, a few light sprinkles to showers will be possible near KHON by Tuesday afternoon. However, confidence is too low (<30%) to include in the TAF at this time. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...AJP DISCUSSION...Samet AVIATION...05  005 FXUS63 KILX 140505 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1205 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - The stretch of warm weather is expected to last through at least Friday, with daily temperatures climbing into the upper 70s and lower 80s, with mid 80s likely on Tuesday and Friday. Breezy south to southwest winds, occasionally reaching 25-35 mph, will accompany this warm period this week. - This week will be riddled with thunderstorm potential. Tuesday afternoon and evening, Wednesday afternoon and evening, and Friday night into Saturday morning currently exhibit the highest probability (15-30%) of severe weather. - There is also potential for substantial accumulative rainfall throughout the week, with our multi-model ensemble predicting a medium (40-60%) chance of exceeding 2 inches through Saturday in areas along and north of I-72. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A subtle mid level short wave lifting ne has scattered convection ne of I-74, with a few strong to severe storms ne of Pontiac with hail where unstable air mass (MUCAPES over 2000 j/kg) and steep mid level lapse rates with 30-40 kt bulk shear values. SPC day 1 update has marginal to slight risk from I-72 north this afternoon for mainly large hail, though the better risk of severe storms appears to have passed ne of CWA at mid afternoon. Still could be a few isolated strong to locally severe cells north of I-74 next few hours for mainly hail chances. Latest CAMs do not show much convection over CWA tonight through early Tue afternoon. Our next best chance of convection will drop down from WI and northern IL into northern CWA during Tue evening and into more of central IL overnight Tue night into Wed morning. SPC Day2 outlook has Marginal risk along and north of I-70 for late Tue afternoon and Tue night, with slight risk along and north of I-72 and enhanced risk far northern CWA north of a Galesburg to Henry line. Areas north of Peoria are outlook for more significant risk of larger hail 2 inch or bigger and EF2 or stronger tornadoes. The 10% or higher risk of tornadoes (EF2 or stronger) just just north of Knox and Stark counties. Very warm highs 82-87F on Tue with moist dewpoints in the 60s and breezy SSW to SW winds gusting to 30 mph. Will be approaching record highs in upper 80s in a few locations Tue and again Friday. The main cold front is nw of IL much of this work week. Surface low pressure ejects ne into the upper MS river valley late Wed afternoon and brings the cold front se into central IL during Wed night. Will likely see a round of showers/thunderstorms along and ahead of this front Wed afternoon into Wed night. SPC Day3 outlook has marginal to slight risk of severe storms Wed afternoon/evening, with the slight risk nw of the IL river. Highs Wed in the upper 70s/lower 80s, with mid 80s far se IL by Lawrenceville. Models differ with convection chances on Thu as Ecmwf keeps high chances of showers/thunderstorms on Thu while NAM mainly has pcpn in southeast IL and GFS and GEM in between. NBM keeps fairly high pops around Thu though severe risk looks low. Thu night and Fri morning looks drier/lull in convection chances. Deepening mid/upper level trof over the Rockies last this week to eject stronger storm system into the Midwest by Fri night into Sat with passage of a stronger cold front. This will likely be our next best chance of convection Fri night into Sat and could be risk of strong to severe storms too, though not in an official SPC outlook yet during this time frame. Much cooler air arrives Sat night and Sunday behind front with highs Sunday 55-60F and lows Sat night in upper 30s/lower 40s and mid to upper 30s Sunday night. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1205 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A weak disturbance crossing the region late tonight will bring a 1-2 hour window of low -TSRA chances to central IL. The higher probabilities of this occurring are near/north of the I-74 corridor where a PROB30 group was included. Otherwise, as diurnal heating commences, BKN MVFR ceilings are forecast to develop, especially at KPIA-KBMI-KCMI, with lower probabilities to the south. These should rise above 3k feet by midday. An isolated storm can't be ruled out this afternoon but probabilities are too low to mention in the TAF. Southwest winds will remain gusty through the period, near 25 kt at times. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...07 DISCUSSION...07 AVIATION...25  858 FXUS64 KLIX 140507 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1207 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1111 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 - Sun and temperature related health risks will be the primary concern with sunny skies and warm temperatures on tap through much of the week. Make sure to use sunscreen and drink plenty of water if you intend to be outside enjoying activities like sports and festivals. - Light fog development remains possible each morning particularly near water bodies. Chances for higher coverage of moderate to dense fog exists Wednesday morning, but forecast confidence is low at this time. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Wednesday night) Issued at 1111 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Large scale ridging from the Atlantic continues to hold strong. This is quite common for spring, but the strength of the western periphery of the actual ridge is quite strong for this time of year. This means that most, and lately, all of the precip associated with weaknesses is held farther west and north of our area. This will eventually change, but this is not seen in the short range. A dry, relatively warm, but comfortable temps does help those who are enjoying the outdoors and this time of year is one of the best for our area. But, we all know what is just around the corner, enjoy. && .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through Monday) Issued at 1111 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 An upper ridge is expected to be in control of most of the Gulf Friday evening. A strong trough will move from the northern and central Rockies Friday night to the Appalachians by Sunday night, and into New England by sunset Monday. While the best upper support will be well to the north of our area, it will still push a cold front through the local area, most likely on Saturday night. While forecast soundings show precipitable water values approaching 1.5 inches (90th percentile) across the northern portion of the area Saturday night, low level forcing looks rather weak. While it may rain Saturday night or Sunday morning, it looks like amounts are going to be very light, maybe not even a tenth of an inch. It does appear that the front will reach into the Gulf, but some question as to whether it progresses far enough to clear out the skies Sunday or Monday across most of the area. Current indications are that drying might make it as far south as Interstate 10 or so, before the boundary starts pushing back to the north Monday night or Tuesday. Still looks like temperatures will run 7-10 degrees above normal until the front arrives. The NBM deterministic high for Friday is very close to the NBM 25th percentile, so a 90 degree high at Baton Rouge still looks in play for Friday. Saturday might be a degree or two cooler. Highs Sunday and Monday, unsurprisingly, will depend on cloud cover. If we stay cloudy, highs will need to be lowered, and low temperatures raised, as the GFS solution keeps dew points about 5-10 degrees higher Sunday into Monday. (RW) && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1111 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 VFR conditions through much of this taf cycle. There is a chance of MVFR cigs moving in toward sunrise Wed morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 1111 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Strong surface high pressure from the northeast gulf into the Atlantic continues to produce a moderate easterly to southeasterly fetch over the northern Gulf. Winds will remain 10 to 15 kt throughout the week. Onshore flow will continue through at least Saturday with the potential for offshore flow from a cold front coming on Sunday and into early next week. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TE LONG TERM....TE AVIATION...RW MARINE...TE  601 FXUS65 KGJT 140508 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1108 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler, wetter weather settles in today through Wednesday morning. Sloppy travel conditions are expected above 9,000 feet. - Sub-freezing temperatures are expected for some valleys early Wednesday morning. A Freeze Watch is in effect for the susceptible areas. - After a brief mid-week warm up, colder and unsettled weather returns to the region Thursday night into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1105 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Models are in good agreement with each other and with satellite imagery for the most part. One notable difference is that the satellite imagery shows the shortwave over southeastern Idaho to be deeper, down into the H500 and even H700 levels, and a more wrapped up low than the open wave depicted in the models. Light isolated to scattered showers are increasing in coverage as they move through eastern Utah and Western Colorado. To the west over western Utah, closer to the low, coverage is more widespread with embedded isolated thunderstorms. Look for this activity to start moving into our region around midnight and increasing through the overnight as showers and thunderstorms spread northeast across region. With the low tracking to the northeast across the region through the morning hours, pushing east of the Divide in the afternoon, showers and thunderstorms will diminish through the afternoon and evening with only a few lingering showers mostly through the central Colorado mountains overnight into Wednesday. There is no real defined front with this system, but with cold air advection aloft widespread precipitation, temperatures will cool about ten degrees from Monday's highs, or to five to ten degrees below normal for mid April. With skies clearing out overnight Tuesday, temperatures in many of the lower valleys will drop below the freezing mark. Because there is still uncertainty with the morning low, continued the Freeze Watch across eastern Utah and Western Colorado late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. COLDER SYSTEM FRIDAY AND COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER BEYOND: Wednesday and Thursday will bring a brief warm up, but Thursday will see another round of gusty winds ahead of the next system, another low pressure system that drops in from the Pacific Northwest. This next system looks to have a strong cold front associated with it with temperatures falling 15 to 25 degrees behind the front leading to a hard freeze possible Saturday morning. It's too soon to say how much snow this system will produce, but snow may drop into the lower valleys behind the front. Stay tuned through the next few day as we sort this out. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 536 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 SCT cloud cover in place late this afternoon with clouds becoming BKN by sunset. Virga showers are leading to enhanced gusty winds in addition to gradient winds with SW gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range expected through the evening, becoming lighter but still breezy at times after sunset. PROB30 groups in place for showers this evening until better chances of wetting precipitation reaching the ground exist after midnight. VFR conditions remain in place until after midnight when MVFR are possible under any shower activity due to lower CIGS and VSBY. ILS breakpoints will be met heading towards 12Z and onwards with prevailing precipitation in many areas. Showers become more scattered after 18Z Tuesday with breezy afternoon winds returning as the system begins to move out and drier air moves back in by late Tuesday afternoon, so back to PROB30 groups after 18Z. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning for COZ001-002-007-008-011-020>023. UT...Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning for UTZ024. && $$ DISCUSSION...DB AVIATION...TGJT  958 FXUS65 KPUB 140508 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1108 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Critical fire weather conditions expected tomorrow, and again Thursday. - Snow showers expand in coverage tonight across the mountains and persist through Tuesday. - Additional storm system arrives for the end of the week, bringing cooler temperatures and additional precipitation chances. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 101 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Tonight: Monday night brings active weather for some and quieter weather to others as a storm system approaches south central and southeastern Colorado. A trough will be approaching the region overnight, bringing an increase in both forcing and moisture. With orographic forcing rising, and the uptick in moisture, snow showers are expected along the mountains, with the greatest coverage of snow along the San Juan Mountains given more favorable wind orientation. While the valleys are anticipated to remain dry, some spillage across the valleys can't be ruled out, especially for the upper Arkansas River Valley. Elsewhere, dry conditions are expected. Overnight temperatures will remain above seasonal values with at least weak downsloping winds in place and some cloud cover. With that said, the plains will fall into the 40s, with pockets in the upper 30s, the valleys into the 30s, and the mountains into the upper 10s to 20s. Tomorrow: Heading into Tuesday, active weather continues, with snow for some and fire weather concerns for others. The aforementioned trough will be pushing over south central and southeastern Colorado during this period, though will be shearing out/weakening as it does so. Even so, forcing will remain heightened. While forcing will remained heightened, moisture will start to lessen, especially across the plains as a dry slot advects across this localized area. With that all said, snow showers will persist along the mountains, though will start to lessen in coverage during the later part of the afternoon as the moisture decreases. Dry conditions continue to prevail elsewhere. The exception to this may be across the Pikes Peak region where spillage of showers off the higher terrain will be possible as the trough pushes eastward. Any precipitation from these showers would be minimal at best though, as dry air at the surface limits subcloud layer rainfall. In addition to all of that, fire weather will be a concern across the plains. As winds increase from diurnal mixing, and that aforementioned dry slot starts pushing into the area, conditions are expected to become favorable for fires, with winds gusting to 40 mph and humidity values tanking to around 13 percent. Looking at temperatures, another warm day is in store for the region as downsloping winds develop. Highs for the plains will rise into the upper 60s to low 80s, the valleys into the 50s, and the mountains into the upper 20s to 40s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 101 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Tuesday Night - Wednesday: For the midweek timeframe, a brief period of quieter weather is expected for south central and southeastern Colorado. The wave from Tuesday will be exiting the area Tuesday night and east by Wednesday. With forcing and moisture decreasing on the backside of the wave, lingering showers across the mountains Tuesday evening are expected to dissipate overnight, with dry conditions then prevailing areawide through Wednesday. Along with that, additional showers can't be ruled out along the Palmer Divide as a weak cold front is pulled southward early Tuesday evening, though confidence in shower development is low (20-30%) at this time. Beyond all of that, breezy, though lighter, winds are anticipated, with partly cloudy skies Tuesday night becoming mostly clear through Wednesday. As for temperatures, values will be more seasonal overnight, and slightly above seasonal highs for Wednesday, even despite the cold front passage Tuesday evening. Thursday - Sunday: For the rest of the long term period, active weather makes a return to south central and southeastern Colorado. Synoptically, another trough will approach the region Thursday, push across Friday through Saturday, with ridging returning for Sunday. Overall, confidence is medium to high (60-70%) in this broader pattern, but there are still finer details that will need to be ironed out in the coming days. Regardless though, this pattern may bring another day of fire weather conditions Thursday as winds increase ahead of the system. Then for the end of the week and start of the weekend, precipitation chances increase, especially for the mountains. There is even potential for snow at lower elevations, though this is one of those finer details that is still a bit murky at this time, and should become more clear over the next 2 to 3 days. Dry conditions then return for the end of the weekend areawide. Beyond all of that, winds will remain breezy, especially Thursday and Friday, with at least partly cloudy skies expected. Temperatures during this period will fluctuate a bit, with above seasonal values Thursday, then cooling significantly Friday and Saturday as the storm system passes, and then slowing warming again Sunday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1108 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. Strong southwest flow aloft is over the region and will remain over the region during this period. Gusty southwest winds will crank up after 15 UTC tomorrow and will be quite strong during the afternoon; 30-40 knts from the southwest. Winds will gradually go to northwest late in the afternoon then north-northwest during the evening then decrease. There is a very low chance of a passing shower tomorrow, especially at KCOS and KALS. There may be some brief periods of haze due to some possible blowing dust due to the strong southwest winds. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Tuesday for COZ227>237. && $$ SHORT TERM...SIMCOE LONG TERM...SIMCOE AVIATION...HODANISH  648 FXUS64 KLCH 140509 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1209 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 80s for a majority of the area, with some low 90s possible. - Next good chance for showers and thunderstorms comes in next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Monday) Issued at 1200 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Surface analysis shows strong high pressure off the East Coast that is causing our persistent onshore flow. Aloft, ridging is centered over Georgia and is the main factor for why we are so dry and warm. Our pattern will remain consistent for the rest of the week as the upper-level ridge remains stationary. The day-to-day forecast will be unchanging with a persistence forecast. Afternoon temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s. Parts of central Louisiana could see their first 90-degree days at the end of the week. This would be about a month earlier than normal, but it is not a guarantee, with probabilities around 50% or a coin flip. Even if we don’t hit 90, we are still looking at temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal as our 500 mb heights remain above the 95th percentile. For the rest of the week, rain chances will be near zero with the occasional afternoon shower. Heading into the weekend, we will finally see a change in our pattern as a trough in the upper Plains pushes a cold front to the coast. With the front, we will see a dip in temperatures along with the first decent rain chances in a week. It is still too far out for any specifics, but any rain will be appreciated to help with the ongoing drought conditions. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions are expected to last through the TAF period. Winds will remain from the south. && .MARINE... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Flow will remain onshore for the remainder of the forecast period with winds between 10 to 15 knots. Waves will be below 5 feet. No convection is expected for the rest of the week but a front will impact the area over the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Persistent south winds will continue to keep our minimum RH values above 50% for the rest of the week. Rain chances will stay near zero this week with KBDI values continuing to climb across the most of the CWA between 400 and 500. Rain chances will increase over the weekend with a frontal passage. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...14 AVIATION...14  516 FXUS61 KRNK 140510 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 110 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Temperatures were tweaked to increase the diurnal range given from the model guidance due to dry air in place. Record temperatures are possible for the next three days. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A strong upper level ridge will bring abnormal warmth for the next few days with record heat possible. Some relief from the heat and dryness may come from a cold front by Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: A strong upper level ridge will bring abnormal warmth for the next few days with record heat possible. Some relief from the heat and dryness may come from a cold front by Sunday. An anomalously strong 590 dam upper level ridge centered over Florida combined with high pressure offshore should provide ample warm air advection from a southwest flow. Temperatures should jump 15 to 25 degrees above normal for the middle of April during today through Thursday. It will feel more like summer than spring as record highs and record high minimums, or warmest lows, will be challenged during this timeframe. Make sure to stay hydrated and find shade if outside for long periods. See the Climate section below for more information on the records in jeopardy. With the unusual warmth and ongoing drought conditions expected for the remainder of this week, the fire weather risk continues to rise. A fire danger statement is already in effect for portions of the North Carolina Piedmont today. Relative humidities should fall towards 20 to 30 percent over the next few afternoons, especially east of the Blue Ridge. See the Fire Weather section below for more details. Only small teases of moisture from frontal boundaries passing to the north may bring a chance of showers later this afternoon and again by Thursday night across the mountains. However, confidence remains low on any activity putting a dent into the climbing rainfall deficits. All locations are two to three inches below normal for rain since the beginning of March. By Sunday, a stronger cold front may arrive from the west. Rainfall amounts do not look too impressive from this frontal passage, but it is the next best opportunity for any meaningful relief. The northwest flow behind this front should push temperatures back closer to normal by Monday. && .AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions expected through the conclusion of the valid TAF period, 00Z Wed/8PM EDT. A few showers will be possible this evening between KBLF-KJFZ. Winds across the mountains may be gusty to 15 to 20kts through perhaps 01Z, but trend quickly to light and variable, or light west. Winds remain on the light side through mid-day Tuesday when the approach the 7 to 10 kt range. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Mainly dry with VFR conditions throughout the rest of the week. Winds will generally be out of the southwest, and gusts up to 20 knots are possible each afternoon as the boundary layer warms and mixes. The only chances of showers that could temporarily halt the ongoing dry spell occur during the afternoons across the mountains. These will be very isolated and will fade with loss of daytime heating. && .FIRE WEATHER... Unusually warm and dry conditions will take place with record heat possible over the next three days. Rainfall chances appear low and remain confined to the mountains, which will only prolong the ongoing drought. Relative humidities will fall towards 20 to 30 percent for the next few afternoons, especially east of the Blue Ridge. Some southern-facing slopes may have relative humidities drop below 20 percent with afternoon sunshine and gusty winds due to an unstable atmosphere from the increasing heat. These aforementioned conditions will escalate fire danger across the entire region. The anomalous heat and low humidity combined with daytime gusts will only make fire containment increasingly difficult throughout the rest of this week. A fire danger statement is already in effect for portions of the North Carolina Piedmont today. The next notable chance for any widespread wetting rainfall may not come until Sunday when a cold front arrives to bring some relief. && .CLIMATE... The following record high maximums and record high minimums, or warmest lows, are in jeopardy due to the abnormal warmth over the next three days: Today: Station Hi Max THi Min T Roanoke91 in 194567 in 1922 Lynchburg91 in 194163 in 2014 Danville91 in 194575 in 1922 Bluefield83 in 193064 in 1977 Blacksburg82 in 194160 in 1941 Wednesday: StationHi Max THi Min T Roanoke89 in 193667 in 2024 Lynchburg89 in 194165 in 1896 Danville91 in 200668 in 1922 Bluefield89 in 192260 in 2006 Blacksburg83 in 194157 in 1954 Thursday: StationHi Max THi Min T Roanoke90 in 200261 in 2017 Lynchburg91 in 200265 in 1912 Danville92 in 200264 in 1916 Bluefield81 in 201266 in 2006 Blacksburg82 in 194161 in 1941 && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...PW AVIATION...BMG/DS FIRE WEATHER...PW CLIMATE...PW/SH  281 FXUS63 KLBF 140513 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 1213 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - High confidence in critical fire conditions through early this evening. - Moderate confidence in precipitation potential Tuesday night into Wednesday - Low to moderate confidence in a return to near-critical fire conditions on Thursday as dry, warm, and breezy conditions return. - Moderate confidence in precipitation Friday and Friday night, with a low confidence of some light accumulating snow. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 136 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Dry and warm conditions will prevail through the remainder of today as upper level ridging begins to slide off to the east. Increasing precipitation chances returns on Tuesday as a developing low pressure system over the Rockies begins to push eastward. At this time, the main low will remain just to the south along the Nebraska/Kansas border. This should keep the majority of the precipitation, not to mention severe potential, to the south and east. Regardless, some of the hi-res models show some more organized convection developing across portions of southwest Nebraska by late evening. Current thinking is that these storms are not expected to be severe as the better instability and forcing remains to the southeast, but some of the storms could produce some stronger wind gusts up to 50 mph or small hail. Overall, any precipitation we receive on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning will be more stratiform in nature and sub-severe. QPF amounts with these showers will generally be under a quarter inch (0.25 inches), with up to a half inch (0.50 inches) possible in the heavier, more organized storms. The best potential to see any showers/storms will be between mid-afternoon (3pm CT) and late evening (10-11pm CT). Some lingering showers and embedded thunderstorms could continue into the early Wednesday morning hours, but overall coverage and intensity should diminish through the Wednesday morning hours. For temperatures, increasing clouds and precipitation will drop temperatures into the upper 60s to low 70s for both Tuesday and Wednesday. Even though temperatures will fall about 10 degrees from today's highs in the low 80s, these highs will still be nearly 10 degrees above normal. Overnight lows will also remain at least 5 to 10 degrees above normal from tonight through Wednesday night in the upper 30s to low 40s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 136 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A return to dry conditions arrives on Thursday as weak ridging builds back into the central Plains. Warm air advection with 850 mb temperatures in the 12 to 16 C range will allow for surface highs to easily climb back into the low to mid 80s. These highs will be nearly 20 degrees above normal for this time of the year. Latest probability guidance suggests a maximum temperature over 80 degrees to be near 100 percent for locations generally east of US-83. Increasing the probability to over 85 degrees, much of that same area still has a nearly 60 to 70 percent or higher probability. Therefore, confidence is high that these very warm, unseasonable temperatures will occur on Thursday. Would even expect the going forecasted highs to rise another couple degrees over the next few days potentially into the mid to upper 80s for much of the region. The warm and dry conditions will be brief as the next system arrives Friday lasting into Saturday. An upper level low will deepen over Wyoming on Friday and pivot across the northern high Plains into Saturday. This low and associated front will bring some precipitation to the region beginning as early as Friday morning across northwest Nebraska and into the Pine Ridge. Precipitation will gradually push south and east throughout the day. There is still some uncertainty in precip type and where the rain/snow cut off line will be. For the most part, will expect mostly all rain during the day, with the Pine Ridge region possibly seeing snow as temperatures remain cooler in that area. Still, maximum temperatures are expected to rise into the low 40s in the Pine Ridge which may inhibit any snow. Once the sun sets in the evening, any lingering precipitation will transition over to snow. How much snow falls will be highly dependent on the precipitation track and if any precipitation will remain over our area by the time temperatures drop enough for snow to develop. Looking at the latest probabilities, the highest potential (over 50 percent) to see accumulating snow will be across the Pine Ridge and in areas mainly north and west of a Chappell to Valentine line. Accumulations are still uncertain, but will continue to monitor this over the next few days. Beyond Friday night, upper level ridging builds back across the western US with surface high pressure returning to the central Plains allowing for a dry weekend to prevail. Cold air advection will push 850 mb temperatures in the 0 to -6 C range into Nebraska keeping highs only in the 50s on Saturday. Temperatures gradually warm into the mid 60s to low 70s on Sunday and eventually back into the upper 70s to low 80s on Monday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1213 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Expect scattered to broken high clouds around 20000 FT AGL to persist into the morning hours Tuesday. Ceilings will lower to around 10000 FT AGL Tuesday afternoon with an increased threat for light rain showers across the area. Scattered coverage is expected and will handle mention with a prob 30 group this evening. Ceilings with the showers should fall off to around 5000 FT AGL. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 136 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Critical fire weather concerns are expected through this evening as RH values drop and winds remain strong. Humidity will continue to drop over the next few hours before bottoming out near 10 percent by late afternoon. The lowest RH values will generally be across southwest Nebraska into the eastern Panhandle and western Sandhills. Westerly winds are currently gusting near 30 mph already and are anticipated to increase as high as 35 to 40 mph by late afternoon before beginning to diminish after sunset. A Red Flag Warning will remain in effect through mid-evening due to these strong winds, lower RH values, and cured fuels ready to burn. Increased moisture due to precipitation chances on Tuesday eventing and into Wednesday will keep fire concerns low through mid-week. However, a return to dry, warm, and windy conditions will bring a return to near-critical fire concerns on Thursday. Stay tuned to the latest forecasts for additional fire concerns heading into late this week. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kulik LONG TERM...Kulik AVIATION...Buttler FIRE WEATHER...Kulik  667 FXUS66 KOTX 140513 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1013 PM PDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A robust cold front to deliver valley rain, mountain snow, and gusty winds Tuesday through Thursday. - Drier and warmer weather returns Friday into the weekend. && .SYNOPSIS... A cold front passage Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday will bring lowland rain, mountain snow, and breezy to windy conditions. Some snow will make it down to the lowlands Wednesday night into Thursday morning on the tail end of the mid- week system. && .DISCUSSION... Monday afternoon and evening: Monday afternoon and evening will feature breezy westerly winds through the Cascade gaps and across the Columbia Basin into the Central ID Panhandle. In addition to the winds, thunderstorm chances (15 to 25 percent) will linger over northeastern WA (north of a line from Rosalia to Wauconda) and across North ID. Thunderstorms will be widely scattered and short-lived, similar to what we've seen the past couple of days. The main threats with any storms that develop will be locally heavy rain, gusty and erratic winds, and pea- sized hail. Tuesday to Thursday: Low pressure drops southward from the Gulf of AK through this period, enveloping the Inland Northwest in colder air and bringing returning chances for precipitation. Rain and mountain snow chances increase through Tuesday as the low approaches, then stick around through Wednesday night (for the Cascades and Eastern WA) and through Thursday (for the ID Panhandle). The exception will be over Central WA where rain shadowing due to strong westerly flow aloft will keep PoPs lower, between 20 and 40 percent. Snow levels will start out between 3500-4500 feet (lowest near the Cascades) Tuesday afternoon, then will drop to between 1000-1500 feet by Thursday morning. Look for mountain snow and lowland rain to start, followed by a transition to a rain/snow mix or even all snow for some lowland areas overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning. Precipitation chances start to wane by then, but there will still be potential for some lowland accumulations during that time frame. The biggest snow impacts are expected over the mountain passes. Here are some 48-hour snow probabilities of 2 inches, 4 inches, 6 inches, 8 inches, and 12 inches from Tuesday morning to Thursday morning: 2 4 6 8 12 Stevens Pass 100% 100% 100% 75% 25% Snoqualmie Pass 100% 90% 80% 50% 10% Lookout Pass 98% 80% 55% 40% 10% Sherman Pass 75% 45% 25% 15% 1% The chance for 0.1 inches of snow at select lowland locations for Wednesday night into Thursday AM: Pullman 55% Sandpoint 60% Spokane 20% Winds will remain gusty through this Tuesday-Thursday period. Tuesday's winds will be southwest 15-20 mph with gusts of 25-40 mph. Winds turn more west-northwest Wednesday and Thursday, with similar speeds but gusts around 20-30 mph. Friday through Sunday: Conditions trend warmer and drier Friday into the weekend as a weak ridge of high pressure builds in behind the exiting low. && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: VFR conditions this evening are forecast to give away to MVFR conditions near GEG/SFF/COE/PUW overnight into Tuesday AM as low level moisture expands to stratus. This lifts toward VFR conditions again for the late morning to afternoon, before the next system moves in with rain and a return to MVFR at GEG/SFF/COE/PUW. Rain chances start near the EAT/MWH in the later morning to afternoon and expand toward the east toward early to mid-afternoon, becoming likely toward 23-01Z. Winds will remain breezy through the period, with gusts near 20-30kts possible. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Moderate to high confidence in VFR conditions this evening; moderate confidence in MVFR conditions at GEG/SFF/COE/PUW 10-18Z, with HREF showing around 60-70% chance. Moderate to high confidence in VFR conditions between 18-00Z, then moderate confidence in MVFR conditions at GEG/SFF/COE/PUW 00-06Z. Possible MVFR conditions at EAT/MWH/LWS with rain, but confidence is low. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 37 51 38 47 30 49 / 10 40 90 80 40 30 Coeur d'Alene 37 51 38 45 30 46 / 20 50 100 90 60 60 Pullman 35 51 39 45 29 44 / 10 20 90 100 70 60 Lewiston 37 59 44 52 34 49 / 10 10 90 90 60 50 Colville 35 53 35 50 27 52 / 30 70 90 70 40 30 Sandpoint 37 45 36 40 29 42 / 60 80 100 90 70 70 Kellogg 37 46 38 43 29 41 / 50 50 100 100 70 90 Moses Lake 37 58 40 55 31 57 / 0 20 20 40 10 0 Wenatchee 42 55 39 52 34 55 / 0 40 50 30 10 0 Omak 38 50 36 47 29 51 / 0 50 50 30 10 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 5 PM PDT Wednesday for Okanogan Highlands. Winter Storm Warning from 11 AM Tuesday to 5 AM PDT Wednesday for Western Chelan County. Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 5 AM PDT Wednesday for Western Okanogan County. ID...None. && $$  438 FXUS61 KPHI 140513 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 113 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Small Craft Advisory was allowed to expire. Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Potentially record breaking warmth is possible this week with very warm and above normal temperatures continuing through the upcoming weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Potentially record breaking warmth is possible this week with very warm and above normal temperatures continuing through the upcoming weekend. A significant warm up is expected to continue through the week and into the upcoming weekend with the potential for record breaking temperatures. With high pressure situated over the Atlantic Ocean and the warm front well north of the Mid-Atlantic region, continued warmth is expected. Very warm air aloft coupled with warm air at surface levels will allow temperatures to be as much as 15 to 30 degrees above average this week. As of now, forecast highs are in the low to mid 80s on Tuesday with mid/upper 80s to low 90s on both Wednesday and Thursday, though Thursday may be a touch cooler due to more cloud cover. See Climate Section below regarding potential record breaking temperatures. If temperatures touch 90F, it would be the first 90 degree day of the year and first since early September. As is typical in spring though, temperatures along and near the coast will be significantly cooler due to the colder sea surface temperatures and diurnal sea breeze. While a weak surface front passes through late Thursday night into Friday morning, temperatures will stay well above normal through the weekend with temps mainly in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Not only will it be very warm over the course of the week, but it will also remain mainly dry. This is of elevated concern for ongoing drought/abnormally dry conditions over much of the area, which will likely only get worse after this week. A few weak disturbances will pass by to the north through Thursday, but other than a stray shower or thunderstorm each afternoon north of the I-78 corridor, no significant rainfall is expected. Flow will generally be out of the southwest, which is more favorable in terms of moisture, which likely will hinder the fire weather concerns this week. Winds will generally be light as well, as another limiting factor. So, even though it will be warm and dry, fire weather concerns are minimal. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Through 12z...Primarily VFR. Some scattered showers at KRDG may result in brief MVFR conditions. No significant weather otherwise. Southwest winds around 5 kt. Moderate confidence. Today...Primarily VFR. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms potentially develop in the afternoon. Added VCSH to the TAFs between 21z-03z. Chance of showers is around 30-50% with a 10-20% chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and early evening. Winds out of the southwest through the day around 5-10 kt in the morning, increasing to around 10-15 kt in the afternoon with gusts 20-25 kt. Moderate confidence. Tonight...Primarily VFR. Slight chance (15-20%) of a shower through 03z at KACY/KMIV. No significant weather otherwise. Southwest winds around 5 kt or less. Moderate confidence. Outlook... Wednesday through Thursday night...Prevailing VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms (~20-40%) in the afternoon and evening hours each day for the Lehigh Valley and I-95 terminals. Friday through Saturday...VFR. A few showers possible, otherwise no significant weather. && .MARINE... The Small Craft Advisory was allowed to expire for all marine zones. Sub- SCA conditions expected for Tuesday. Southwest winds will gust to around 15-20 kts in the afternoon with seas around 2-4 feet. Outlook... Tuesday night through Saturday...No marine headlines expected. Winds will generally remain below 20 kt with seas around 2-4 feet. A few showers possible, otherwise fair weather. && .CLIMATE... Warm temperatures well above normal are expected for the upcoming week. Wednesday is currently projected to be the warmest day, though Tuesday through Thursday could see some records broken depending on the site. Below are record highs and record high minimum temperatures for April 14th through April 16th. Record High Temperatures April 14 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 88/2023 AC Airport (ACY) 86/1945 AC Marina (55N) 90/1941 Georgetown (GED) 87/1977 Mount Pocono (MPO) 84/2023 Philadelphia (PHL) 91/1941 Reading (RDG) 90/1941 Trenton (TTN) 89/1941 Wilmington (ILG) 87/1941 Record Warmest Low Temperatures April 14 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 61/2014 AC Airport (ACY) 63/2023 AC Marina (55N) 60/2023 Georgetown (GED) 65/2019 Mount Pocono (MPO) 56/2014 Philadelphia (PHL) 62/2014 Reading (RDG) 64/2014 Trenton (TTN) 62/2014 Wilmington (ILG) 60/2014 Record High Temperatures April 15 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 86/1941 & 1994 AC Airport (ACY) 90/1967 AC Marina (55N) 86/1941 Georgetown (GED) 86/1960 & 2024 Mount Pocono (MPO) 82/1941 Philadelphia (PHL) 88/1941 Reading (RDG) 86/1941 & 1994 Trenton (TTN) 87/1994 Wilmington (ILG) 86/1896 Record Warmest Low Temperatures April 15 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 59/2002 AC Airport (ACY) 61/2002 AC Marina (55N) 59/2006 Georgetown (GED) 65/2002 Mount Pocono (MPO) 58/2002 Philadelphia (PHL) 64/2002 Reading (RDG) 64/1938 Trenton (TTN) 63/2002 Wilmington (ILG) 62/2002 Record High Temperatures April 16 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 90/2012 AC Airport (ACY) 89/2002 AC Marina (55N) 88/2002 Georgetown (GED) 89/2002 Mount Pocono (MPO) 85/2002 Philadelphia (PHL) 90/2002 Reading (RDG) 90/2012 Trenton (TTN) 91/2012 Wilmington (ILG) 92/1896 Record Warmest Low Temperatures April 16 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 60/1941 AC Airport (ACY) 62/2002 AC Marina (55N) 64/2002 Georgetown (GED) 65/2012 Mount Pocono (MPO) 56/2002 Philadelphia (PHL) 62/2002 Reading (RDG) 65/1941 Trenton (TTN) 62/2002 Wilmington (ILG) 63/2002 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DeSilva/MJL AVIATION...DeSilva/Hoeflich/MJL MARINE...DeSilva/Hoeflich/MJL  944 FXUS64 KAMA 140514 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1214 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1213 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Elevated to critical fire weather conditions expected today through Friday due to breezy/gusty winds combined with dry conditions. - Low chance for isolated severe storms in the east to southeastern TX Panhandle this afternoon into evening. - A potentially strong cold front late Friday can bring frost to freezing conditions to much of the panhandles this weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday night) Issued at 1213 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 See fire weather section for detail on the expected upcoming elevated to critical fire weather days. A weather system is currently swinging eastward across the desert southwest which will cause strong gusty winds across the panhandles during the daytime. For today we can expect the southwest winds to gust mainly in the 40s to 50s mph range. Such winds can make travel difficult especially for high profile vehicles. The trajectory of this system is keeping the winds out of the southwest today driving in much drier surface air. The dry air will most likely encompass much of the panhandles only stopping when it meets moist air in the southeast Texas panhandle. This would setup a dry line that has a low chance of sparking off afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms. There is a further low chance for these storms to become strong to severe capable of producing tornados, large hail, and damaging winds. It is questionable that the storms will be able to become strong enough fast enough to produce those impacts within the panhandles. Instead the storms could form over the panhandles before moving into Oklahoma proper before they become severe. Since much of the panhandles will instead see dry and windy conditions critical fire weather conditions are the larger concern so be sure to see the fire weather section. Wednesday the weather system ejects across the southern plains and then moves quickly off to the east. This would server to weaken the pressure gradient over the southern plains leading to weaker winds for the panhandles. Still the direction of the winds will remain southwesterly to westerly which will continue to drive in dry air from the desert southwest. Even with this dry winds limited mid level moisture can continue to linger in the southeastern Texas panhandles. This still allows for a very low chance for high based rain showers and thunderstorms during the early afternoon hours. If these storms form they would still produce more winds than rain. Otherwise the passage of the weather system will bring a small dip in the temperatures. This would make Wednesday mainly a warm and sunny day for much of the panhandles. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 1213 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Thursday and Friday the next weather system swings southeasterly across the intermountain west towards the Great Plains. This has a high chance of making the weather system the dominate weather feature across the southern plains during this time. This will setup a dry southwest flow across the southern plains during this time. The weather system will have a high chance of causing robust winds across the panhandles for both days. The combinations of these two factors would lead to another round of elevated to critical fire weather conditions across the panhandles for both days. Still the trajectory of this system has a low chance of drawing up limited moisture into the southeastern panhandles late on Thursday and more so on Friday. This moisture will allow for a low chance of afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms with there already being hints that some storms can be strong. Saturday the weather system has a moderate to high chance of ejecting out of the intermountain west and moving across the Great Plains. In doing so it would pass a cold front north to south across the panhandles most likely early Saturday. This would stream in cooler air across the panhandles leading to a large drop in the temperatures. If the cold air arrives fast enough then Saturday morning can see frost to freezing temperatures in the northern panhandles. There is a higher chance for Saturday night into Sunday to see more widespread frost to freeze conditions across much of the northern and central panhandles. For early next week the weather system is more likely than not going to depart off to the east with a ridge building across the southern plains. This would draw away the cooler air bringing an increase in temperatures that would cease the risk for frost or freezing weather. Conditions would most likely remain dry under the ridge lending the risk of fire weather conditions for early next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions at all terminals and across the panhandles for the next 24 hours. Tonight there is speed shear at all terminals, just not to the strength to be counted as low level wind shear so it is not currently reflected in the TAFs. This shear will end later morning once the winds become gusty. Today will see strong southwest winds during the daytime hours at all terminals. While the winds may loft some dust and cause some haze this is unlikely to lead to any visibility impairment. These winds will persist until the evening when the weaken for all terminals. There is a low chance for afternoon thunderstorms in the southeastern Texas panhandle. The chance for these storms to impact any terminal are too low to be reflected in any TAF. However there is a low chance for these storms to become strong to severe and be a dangerous in flight risk. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1213 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Today will have widespread strong and gusty southwest winds during the late morning through afternoon. The direction of the winds will remain fairly steady from the southwest through today. Today the sustained winds will be 20s to 30s mph range with the the gusts in the 40s to 50s mph range. This is keeping dry air across the panhandles causing today's min RH to bottom in the teens %. This is creating widespread critical fire weather conditions with RFTI's in the 4 to 6 range with patchy higher RFTI being possible. There is a low chance for thunderstorms in the eastern panhandles this afternoon that can cause localized stronger and erratic winds. These storms can also cause fire starts through lightning as well. Today the weather conditions will be ripe to allow for easy fire starts and rapid spread of any fire that does manage to start. Wednesday can see mainly elevated fire weather conditions across much of the panhandles due to it being very dry. This day will have min RH down to single digits to low tens across much of the panhandles. However the lack of stronger winds will prevent critical fire weather conditions. Although some patchy critical fire weather conditions cannot be ruled out for the far southern Texas panhandle. Further critical fire weather conditions have a high chance of occurring across the panhandles come Thursday and Friday. This will be caused by robust southwest winds and dry conditions across the panhandles. There is the potential for Thursday and Friday to see even worse fire weather conditions that today. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>020-317. Wind Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001-002-006-007-011-012-016-017-317. OK...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001>003. Wind Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001-002. && $$ SHORT TERM...98 LONG TERM....98 AVIATION...98  419 FXUS64 KBMX 140515 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1215 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1213 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026 - Fire danger will remain elevated through the week due to recent dryness, low relative humidity values, and increased winds at times. Outdoor burning is highly discouraged. - Near-record high temperatures are expected each day this week with no rain chances, causing drought conditions to worsen. && .DISCUSSION... (Tuesday through next Monday) Issued at 1033 PM CDT MON APR 13 2026 Water vapor imagery late this evening depicts a fairly active picture out to our north and west as a series of shortwaves progress across the Plains. Upper level ridging in place across the southeast is helping to deflect this activity away from the region. At the surface, high pressure remains anchored just off the east coast, leaving us with a southerly flow. Winds will be breezy at times over the next couple of days as the pressure gradient tightens in response to a low pressure system across the Northern Plains. By late Wednesday into Thursday, another H5 shortwave ejects across the Plains and begins to suppress our ridge to the south. This will open a brief window during the day Thursday for a low chance of rain across our NW areas. Confidence is low in this scenario as moisture recovery does not look too impressive. After all, "drought begets drought". Upper ridging quickly moves back into place, keeping us dry as we wrap up the work week. An upper trough lifts out of the Plains towards the Great Lakes Saturday into Sunday while pushing a cold front our way. This boundary looks to move into the area late Saturday night/early Sunday morning, eventually clearing the CWA by the evening hours. Latest guidance is hinting at PWATs ranging from 1.2-1.4" as this front passes through. Therefore, we will hang onto low to medium chances for showers and storms late Saturday night through Sunday afternoon. Rain chances with this system look a bit more promising despite our ongoing drought conditions as we will see more forcing available. Much drier air quickly filters back into the region as we close out the weekend and head into the work week. Our warming trend will continue through the work week. Highs each afternoon will generally climb into the mid 80s. Friday looks to be the warmest day as the entire region has roughly a 40-70% chance of exceeding 90F. It's likely that we see some high temp records broken as we close out the work week. To add confidence here, the ECMWF EFI/SOT guidance is strongly hinting at an anomalous heat event for this time of the year. These warm temps and dry conditions will likely lead to worsening drought conditions over the next week. 95/Castillo && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026 Will continue with the VFR forecast across all central Alabama TAF sites through the next 24 hours. Will be on the lookout for some light fog or sct low cloudiness at TCL around sunrise. But otherwise, just scattered high cirrus at most. /61/ && .FIRE WEATHER... Elevated fire danger conditions will be a concern daily as we head through the week. MinRHs on Tuesday and Wednesday will drop into the 25-35% range. Winds will be a bit breezy with gusts from 10-15 MPH. Outside of a low chance of rain across our northwest areas, dry conditions will remain in place through the work week. A cold front is forecast to move through Saturday night, which will bring a low to medium chance for showers and storms. It will also lead to increased fire weather concerns late this weekend into early next week as much drier air moves back into the region. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1102 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026 Record High Temperatures: April 14: KBHM: 89/1981 KEET: 85/2017 KANB: 89/1981 KTCL: 88/2003 KMGM: 89/1972 April 15: KBHM: 88/1936 KEET: 85/2012 KANB: 89/1972 KTCL: 88/1972 KMGM: 91/1972 April 16: KBHM: 89/1977 KEET: 84/2013 KTCL: 90/1955 KMGM: 90/1925 April 17: KBHM: 90/1955 KEET: 86/2013 KTCL: 92/1955 KMGM: 90/1955 April 18: KBHM: 91/2006 KEET: 90/2006 KANB: 90/1955 KMGM: 91/2006 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 84 55 86 57 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 84 57 86 58 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 85 60 86 62 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 85 57 85 60 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 85 57 87 58 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 84 59 85 60 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 86 57 88 58 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 85 57 87 56 / 0 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...95/Castillo AVIATION.../61/  627 FXUS63 KUNR 140515 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 1115 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... -Mild through Thursday -Dry most places outside of NW SD today through Wed -Critical fire weather conditions, mainly along and south of I90 today, and again possibly Wednesday and especially Thursday -Much colder and unsettled for the end of the week with rain and snow possible by Friday for parts of the area && .UPDATE... Issued at 956 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Current sfc analysis shows NW-SE oriented frontal boundary sagging across the CWA with temperatures ranging from the 40s across northwestern SD and northeastern WY to the upper 50s across southwestern into south central SD. Winds across the southern tier of the FA have diminished while humidities rise as temperatures cool off, ending critical fire wx conditions across the area. A few strong to marginally severe storms popped up over northwestern SD this afternoon but that activity has dissipated as upper level impulse pushes to the east of the region. Regional radar shows shower activity in western ND with CAMs indicating some showers are possible across far northwestern SD through the overnight hours. In addition to the showers, forecast soundings show a fairly shallow moist layer over northwestern SD. Thus, have painted in some light PoPs and mentions for patchy fog for far northwestern SD from now until ~09z. Upper trof pushes into the Central Plains tomorrow with the bulk of the forcing and moisture passing to the south of our CWA, though a few light showers can't be ruled out over southern SD during the day on Tuesday with diurnally driven showers over the Black Hills Tuesday afternoon. && .DISCUSSION...(This Afternoon Through Sunday) Issued at 1055 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Central Rockies upper trough will continue to shift east with another stronger trough dropping into the Pac NW. This will support warm and mainly dry weather through most of Thur. Dry SW flow is ongoing across the southern half of the FA. Rockies trough will semi-split with the northern portion supporting a few showers and isolated TS across the far NW this afternoon/evening. However, the rest of the FA will remain dry. Compact jetlet, associated enhanced bulk shear and marginal CAPE may support an isolated strong storm on the southern flank of expected convection today, with small hail and gusty winds. Cool front starts to progress east into the area tonight. The southern portion of the trough will shift east Tues, barely skirting the southeast third of the FA, with maybe a shower or two in southwest to scentral SD. Enough instability may be present over the BH to also support a few showers there with diurnal heating. Shower chances will linger into Wed across scentral SD, as the trough moves fairly slow across the Central Plains. Mild weather will continue through Thur as WAA ensues ahead of the next upper trough Wed, which will advect SE in westerly flow out of the Pac NW. This system will force a strong cold front into the region Thur, with strong CAA and wind expected. However, this trough will split, with limited precip amounts outside of perhaps northeast WY and maybe far SW SD, effectively leaving much of western SD with little to no precip. After a couple days below normal, things quickly then warm back up next week as the next trough drops into the western CONUS and WAA spreads to its east. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Tuesday Night) Issued At 1111 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Otherwise VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. More showers and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday afternoon, mainly across the western SD plains. Local MVFR conditions are possible in the heavier precip. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued At 1055 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Gusty southwest winds, extremely dry air, and lack of appreciable green up will support critical fire weather conditions this afternoon mainly along and south of I90. A red flag warning remains in effect into this evening. The most critical areas will be in SW SD where RH will drop to 10 percent with winds gusting to around 45 mph in the afternoon. A cool front will drop into the area tonight with winds diminishing and RH's recovering. Mild on Tue and Wed as an upper level trough skirts south of the area. However, low RH and breezy winds may support critical fire weather conditions once again on Wed and especially Thur in the same locations. A strong cold front will move into the region Thur, with chances for rain and snow Friday, mainly across northeast WY. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ UPDATE...Wong DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC AVIATION...13 FIRE WEATHER...JC  833 FXUS65 KBOI 140517 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 1117 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread valley rain and mountain snow above 4500 feet on Monday. - Snow levels will drop to near valley floors Thursday morning with cold frontal passage for widespread lower elevation snow likely. - Near to Below freezing morning temperatures likely Thursday through Saturday across the entire area. && .SHORT TERM /Through Wednesday Night/... Issued 203 PM MDT MON APR 13 2026 The active pattern remains in place across southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho. Rain and snow showers continue through the remainder of the afternoon, tapering by mid evening. Significant snow has fallen above 6000 feet today with reports of 14 to 18 inches of snowfall. As of 1 PM MDT today, 2.40 inches of rainfall has been recorded for the month of April 2026 at Boise. This currently ranks as the 9th wettest April on record for the Boise area, with 17 days remaining in the month. For tonight and Tuesday, a brief period of weak ridging will move through the region, providing a short lull in the widespread precipitation seen earlier this week. Light winds, clearing skies, and significant surface moisture will promote the development of patchy fog Tuesday morning, especially across the Long Valley and Treasure Valley. The break is short lived as a strong upper level low currently over Alaska begins to dig south along the Pacific coast late Tuesday afternoon and evening. Clouds will increase from the west as moisture begins to advect into the region ahead of the next system. Light rain showers will develop over the mountains of southeast Oregon late Tuesday, spreading into southwest Idaho overnight. The main weather event arrives Wednesday as the cold front approaches. Strong southwesterly flow ahead of the front will result in breezy conditions Wednesday afternoon, with gusts of 25 to 35 mph possible across the higher terrain and open valleys of southeast Oregon. Widespread rain is expected for the valleys through Wednesday evening, with snow levels initially remaining around 5000 to 6000 feet MSL. The cold frontal passage is timed for late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. This front will bring a sharp transition in the weather. Winds will shift to the northwest and remain gusty. More importantly, a much colder air mass will pour into the region, causing snow levels to plummet toward valley floors by sunrise Thursday. While the bulk of the moisture will be moving east, wrap around moisture and unstable northwesterly flow will support a mix of rain and snow for the Treasure and Magic Valleys, with light snow accumulations possible on grassy surfaces and higher valley benches. In the mountains, lower valleys will see a few inches of snow but areas above 5500 feet could see several inches of new snow Thursday morning, which may impact travel over mountain passes. && .LONG TERM /Thursday through Monday/... Issued 203 PM MDT MON APR 13 2026 Following a strong cold front, temperatures on Thursday cool down to 5-10 degrees below normal. Not exceptionally cold climatologically, but following a long warm spell it will feel like a sudden burst of winter for lower elevations. It's enough for most of the Snake Plain to see sub-freezing morning low temperatures. Again, this isn't climatologically exceptional, however, a green up in the past two weeks has seen many plants begin to bloom or sprout. The freezing morning temperatures threaten this new growth, especially for gardens and crops. For those who started their garden early, it may be wise to consider covering up plants or bringing them inside. Personally, I'm going to be using the time to clean up after late winter and early spring bug hatches. Aside from the cold morning temperatures, as snow tapers off Thursday evening high pressure builds and we head into a warming and drying trend. The drying trend allows morning lows to stay near freezing through Saturday, but afternoon high temperatures will climb back up to near normal. Gusty winds up to 35 mph on Thursday weaken each afternoon, to 30 mph Friday, and 20 mph Saturday. Sunday, temps are about 5 degrees above normal. Sunday night and next Monday models show another strong low diving south along the West Coast, and isolating itself from the jet stream. This will mark the onset of another cool and wet period. && .AVIATION /06Z Tuesday through Wednesday/... Issued 1117 PM MDT MON APR 13 2026 Isolated showers overnight, creating brief low VFR/MVFR conditions. Snow levels 4500-5500 ft MSL. Areas of mtn obscuration. Pockets of fog/low clouds in the Snake Plain and mtn valleys through morning. Surface winds: variable up to 12 kt overnight, then SW-NW 5-15 kt in the afternoon. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-SW 15-25 kt. KBOI...Generally VFR. Isolated rain showers in Treasure Valley through the morning, with a 30% chance of MVFR in showers/low clouds between Tue/10Z-15Z. Surface winds: NW or variable around 5 kt. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....SH SHORT TERM...JDS LONG TERM....JM  829 FXUS63 KEAX 140517 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1217 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...06z Aviation Update... .KEY MESSAGES... * Active weather pattern continues with multiple chances for strong to severe thunderstorms, specifically Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday. * Warm temperatures (upper 70s to low/mid 80s) are expected to persist through the work week, with cooler and drier conditions expected this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 317 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 An active weather week is in store for the Plains and Midwest with Kansas and Missouri being no exception. Deep-layer southwest flow and theta-e advection has allowed temperatures to climb into the upper 70s and low 80s as of early Monday afternoon. A tight surface pressure gradient has also led to breezy conditions with sustained wind speeds ranging from roughly 15-20 MPH with gusts up to 35-40 MPH. There are two scenarios regarding tonight's activity (or lack thereof). The most likely (>90%) possibility is that no showers or storms are able to develop outside of a rogue elevated, non-severe shower/storm. Recent ACARS soundings from KMCI have continued to show a persistent capping inversion around 800mb, which would largely inhibit the development of strong/severe storms without a lifting mechanism in the vicinity. The second, much less likely possibility (<10%) is that an isolated storm could develop after encountering some forcing, or a storm is able to form further west where inhibition is more limited. With the amount of instability we have available, a storm that is able to overcome the barriers in place could easily become strong/severe. How long a storm would be able to fuel itself in such a heavily capped environment is another question which further reduces confidence in this occurring. Again, this remains a highly unlikely scenario but possible nonetheless. Warm temperatures will stick around on Tuesday with potential for showers and storms beginning late in the afternoon. A low pressure system currently over the southern California coast is progged to lift northeastward later today. As it does so, a lead shortwave will eject out ahead toward the Rockies. Lee cyclogenesis is expected to ensue with the resultant low moving into north central Kansas by early Tuesday morning. A dryline extending south from the cyclone and into Oklahoma and Texas will be important for storm potential locally. CAMs/Hi-Res guidance indicate convective initiation beginning along this boundary in Oklahoma and Kansas. Storms that develop will initially be discrete/semi-discrete before growing upscale into messy clusters and/or quasi-linear segments. Following mean southwest flow, storms would track northeastward; as such, storms that initiate off of the dryline further south and west would be expected to enter our CWA sometime late Tuesday afternoon or early evening. Locally, we look to possess an environment conducive to strong/severe convection: good instability (CAMs narrowing in on a window of >2000 J/kg of CAPE early tomorrow evening) as well as decent deep-layer shear and SRH. However, what we lack is a clear lifting mechanism nearby, and this will limit our chances for discrete convection tomorrow. If the dryline moves further east than currently forecast, or if a discrete storm from northern OK/southeast KS is able to sustain itself long enough without growing upscale, we would be posed with a greater tornado and hail threat. With no clear route for ascent and indications of at least some degree of a cap, though, we expect wind to be the primary/most widespread hazard with non-discrete convection. CAMs have also picked up on convective initiation in northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri late Wednesday evening as the LLJ ramps up; these storms would present a wind threat as well. There is still plenty of uncertainty regarding the evolution of the forecast tomorrow, much of it dependent on the placement of the dry line as well as the surface low. Severe weather potential exists on Wednesday, but the threat looks to be rather conditional, relying upon how the atmosphere is able to recover from the prior day's showers and storms. Model guidance keeps the CWA clouded in over the course of the day with some clearing in eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Overall, there is less instability to work with as well as more capping (at least per model depictions). Regardless, Thursday looks to be calmer, courtesy of mid/upper-level ridging. Strong southwesterly flow will continue to prevail, keeping us warm. Finally, severe weather chances return again on Friday. Deep southwesterly flow aloft looks to run over a moist, unstable airmass provided by daytime theta-e advection as another surface cyclone with an attendant cold front approaches from the leeside of the Rockies. As the cold front nears, storms could develop along or near it. Guidance suggests moderate instability and shear could be available for storms to tap into, though details should become clearer as we continue through the week. Following the passage of the cold front, high temperatures on Saturday could be 20-25F lower. While we will have to bid adieu to 80 degree temperatures for now, the weekend looks to be dry once remnants of showers and storms move out early Saturday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1213 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions should prevail across the sites for much of the period. Initially, a low VFR/high MVFR stratus deck may clip the metro sites, especially KIXD, as that deck has blossomed in the wake of outflow from storms earlier this evening. Am not confident enough to include prevailing given soundings and strong low level flow, but will monitor. Otherwise, VFR conditions and gusty SW winds prevail across all sites through much of the remainder of the period. After 00z, convection expected to blossom and move up into the area. Given confidence in convection, have included a prevailing TSRA group with a PROB30 for higher intensity/low visibility potential. That activity may carry into the overnight/past the end of this current TAF period. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Macko SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...Curtis  748 FXUS64 KLUB 140518 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1218 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1218 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - A dryline will bring chances for severe storms to areas off the Caprock Tuesday, with dry and windy conditions west of the escarpment. - Critical fire danger is expected Tuesday afternoon for western portions of the Caprock which have not seen beneficial rainfall over the past week. - Storm chances continue through early Friday, mainly off the Caprock, with drier and cooler weather expected for the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Tuesday night) Issued at 1024 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Water vapor imagery late Monday evening highlights a belt of moist and unsettled southwest flow aloft in place over the West TX region, a pattern which will persist through the short term period as a compact mid/upper level low moves over the Four Corners. The dryline will continue to retreat westward through the rest of the overnight, and will position roughly from Denver City to Plainview to Memphis by sunrise. Overnight storms look unlikely, but we could still see an isolated cell or two develop over the southeastern Rolling Plains during the early morning hours as a modest low level jet focuses within a pocket of elevated instability. The dryline will mix eastward after daybreak Tuesday, especially on the Caprock where moisture will be quite shallow. Another warm and breezy to low end windy day will result west of the dryline as deep mixing taps into ~35kt flow at 700mb and up to 65kt at 500mb, which combined with the warm conditions will result in critical fire danger on the Caprock for areas which have not benefited from rainfall over the past week or so. Despite the strengthening flow aloft, the dryline is expected to slow its eastward progression once it moves east of the Caprock Escarpment given deeper moisture in place there, with dewpoints likely to remain above 50F over most of the Rolling Plains and SE TX Panhandle Tuesday afternoon. In general, it still appears the dryline circulation itself will be relatively weak Tuesday. However, convective temperatures will be easily within reach, and slightly better large scale forcing for ascent compared to Monday should result in a bit higher coverage of storms along and east of the dryline on Tuesday afternoon. Within the moist sector, forecast soundings depict MLCAPE values near or above 1500 J/kg, along with bulk shear magnitudes nearing 50kt. This will be sufficient for a few severe storms Tuesday afternoon over the Rolling Plains and SE TX Panhandle capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts, although this should be a relatively early show with strong flow aloft kicking storms to our east by early evening. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 1024 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Wednesday is expected to be a relatively quiet and warm day as the above-mentioned upper trough exits into the central plains states, with dry westerly surface flow pushing most appreciable near-surface moisture and associated storm chances to our east. That being said, a subset of guidance does keep the dryline barely over our eastern zones, so will maintain low storm chances over the eastern edge of the Rolling Plains through late Wednesday given uncertainty in the dryline positioning. Southwest flow aloft returns by Thursday as the next upper trough deepens over the Great Basin, which will bring enough near-surface moisture northward to result in mainly nocturnal storm chances Thursday night into early Friday courtesy of a strengthening low level jet. However, this period of southwest flow aloft and associated precipitation chances will be relatively short- lived given the progressive nature of the upper trough, which is progged to quickly shift eastward with the trough axis set to be over the Dakotas by early Saturday. This evolution will send a cold front southward through our area sometime in the late Friday to Saturday period, with good consensus among models indicating a drier and cooler period through at least the first half of the weekend. Return flow looks likely to reestablish Sunday and beyond with ensembles in decent agreement bringing low chances for showers and storms back to the region by early next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Winds will remain breezy through sunrise at KCDS, KLBB, and KPVW, with winds expected to accelerate by the late morning hours at all terminals. Southwesterly gusts between 30-35 kt will be common this afternoon at all terminals, with BLDU possible at KLBB and KPVW. TSTMs will be possible INVOF KCDS this evening, and a PROB30 group has been introduced with this TAF period. VFR will prevail otherwise at all terminals. Sincavage && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1024 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Strong southwest winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 45 mph are expected across most of the Caprock on Tuesday afternoon. Combined with RH values in the 15 to 20 percent range, RFTI values of 3 to 5 appear likely over the southwestern TX Panhandle and western portions of the Caprock on Tuesday. Critical fire weather conditions are therefore expected in this area given the lack of recent beneficial rainfall compared to locations farther east. Therefore, a Red Flag Warning is in effect from noon to 8 PM Tuesday for the SW TX Panhandle and western Caprock. A Fire Danger Statement is in effect for areas farther east near the edge of the Caprock where slightly higher RH is expected in closer proximity to the dryline. Areas off the Caprock (especially the Rolling Plains) are expected to remain relatively humid east of the dryline, and fire weather concerns will be relatively low for these locations. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>025-027>030-033-034-039. Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>023-027>029. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...09  223 FXUS64 KOHX 140518 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1218 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1217 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Enhanced fire danger Tuesday and Wednesday due to dry conditions and gusty winds. - Continued unseasonal warmth through the week. Record highs are possible Tuesday and Wednesday. - Medium to high rain/storm chances Thursday and again this weekend. No severe weather is expected at this time. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday Night) Issued at 1037 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Dry conditions return on Tuesday after today's light shower activity as the upper ridge influences strengthen. RH values will drop below 30% along the plateau during the afternoon along with 10-15 mph SSW winds gusting up to 25 mph. This will create increased fire danger. Any rain that may have fallen today was very light and not enough to put much of a dent in fuel moistures. Temperatures on Tuesday will be back into the 80s. Wednesday will be pretty similar with low RH values and gusty SSW winds keeping the enhanced fire conditions in place. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1037 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 The next chance of rain will arrive on Thursday as a shortwave disturbance traverses the area. We have medium to high chances of picking up some measurable rainfall with rainfall amounts of around of less than 0.5". Temperatures rebound behind Thursday's disturbance with highs back in the lower to upper 80s on Friday and Saturday. A cold front will move through on Saturday night bringing more medium to high rain chances. Behind the front, temperatures will be knocked back closer to normal with highs in the 60s and 70s on Sunday and Monday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1217 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions for this TAF cycle. Winds will carry the biggest impact with southwest gusts of 20-25 kts from 14-23Z on Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 87 63 87 65 / 10 0 0 0 Clarksville 88 65 87 66 / 10 0 0 10 Crossville 82 58 83 60 / 10 0 0 0 Columbia 87 62 85 64 / 10 0 0 0 Cookeville 82 60 83 63 / 10 0 0 0 Jamestown 83 59 83 60 / 10 0 0 0 Lawrenceburg 84 61 84 63 / 0 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 87 62 86 64 / 10 0 0 0 Waverly 87 66 86 67 / 10 0 0 10 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Reagan LONG TERM....Reagan AVIATION.....Unger  237 FXUS63 KMKX 140520 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1220 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe storms will continue into tonight. Damaging winds and an isolated tornado are the main threats. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible. - A Flood Watch remains in effect for counties north of I-94 tonight. Also expected rises on area rivers and cresting above flooding stage with the additional rainfall. - Additional windows for heavy rainfall, flooding, and severe thunderstorms Tuesday, Wednesday and again later this week. All severe hazards will be possible later Tuesday afternoon into the evening. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 1220 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Tonight through Tuesday night: A line of thunderstorms will roll through the forecast area over the next few hours, as low pressure approaches along a stalled frontal boundary. The main threat through 2-4 am will be damaging winds, though an isolated tornado will be possible. Given sustained instability overnight along with WSW 0-3 km shear around 40 knots, any storm line segments that become more north/south oriented could bow out increasing the wind threat and also producing a QLCS tornado threat. The flooding concern remains overnight as well, as the line of storms across the northern forecast area slowly sags southward tonight, with some back building currently evident over southeast MN and northeast IA. Storms may linger in the southeast forecast area towards around daybreak, with dry weather then likely through the morning hours. Attention then turns to another severe storm threat during the afternoon and evening hours. The stalled frontal boundary will be set up around the far northern forecast area in the afternoon, as another weak surface low and shortwave approach from the west. Plenty of instability is expected across at least the south half of the forecast area, with surface based CAPE of at least 3000 J/KG. Additionally, wind profiles look more than sufficient for severe storms as a 45 kt LLJ noses from the south by late afternoon. All severe hazards will be possible as storms initialize between 3 and 6 pm, with a decent chance for supercell development. Storms will likely eventually organize into line or two, with the severe threat leaning more towards wind and QLCS tornado at that point. Locally heavy rainfall and flooding will be a concern as well, especially if storms roll through the same areas that received the heavier rainfall the last couple days. Adding to this concern as that some of the latest models do show that a line of storms may set up west to east across the southern half of the forecast area tomorrow night, with some training possible. DDV && .LONG TERM... Issued 1220 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Wednesday through Sunday: It is still looking like the frontal boundary could remain far enough north on Wednesday for another severe storm threat. This will somewhat depend on what happens Tuesday/Tuesday night and where the effective front ends up because of that round of storms. Overall though, there is enough confidence to continue to message a severe threat, with locally heavy rainfall also a concern again. Storms may linger Wednesday night into early Thursday, with a break in activity then likely Thu afternoon into at least Friday morning. Yet another round of storms is then possible Friday evening into Saturday morning as a cold front finally pushes through the region. The later timing of this front may somewhat diminish the severe threat, due to the better interaction with peak daytime heating Friday remaining to the west. Plenty of time though for timing to change, so this period remains worth keeping an eye on. Much cooler conditions are expected to settle into the area this weekend behind the departing low and cold front. Highs will likely struggle to get out of the 40s by Sunday. It looks mainly dry Sat afternoon through Sunday, though not out of the question for a few snowflakes in the north Sat night as a shortwave rolls through. DDV && .AVIATION... Issued 1220 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A line of thunderstorms, potentially severe at times, is expected to continue to drop southeast through southern Wisconsin through around 09Z tonight. Damaging winds are the main concern, with a tornado not out of the question. Low level wind shear is likely this evening into tonight ahead of the thunderstorms. Lower ceilings (1500 to 3000 ft) and visibilities (2-5 miles) are anticipated as the line of storms move through. A few storms may linger towards daybreak early Tue, with dry weather likely through the morning hours. Low clouds may take a good chunk of the morning to improve to VFR. Generally south to southwest winds are expected tomorrow, though a few models do show winds may turn onshore tomorrow near the lake by late morning. Another round of thunderstorms is expected tomorrow by late afternoon or early evening, with the potential for severe storms once again. DDV && .MARINE... Issued 1220 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Shower and thunderstorm activity is expected across lake Michigan late into tonight as low pressure of 29.6 inches over southeast Minnesota continues to head northeast. Winds will be easterly north of a frontal boundary across roughly the northern half of the lake, with southerly winds expected in the south. Then expecting another a couple passing low pressure system to develop in the Plains and track across Lake Michigan again on Tuesday and Wednesday. Each system will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms through the middle of the week. Areas of dense fog will likely occur at times due to a relatively mild and humid airmass over the cold waters paired with lighter winds. DDV && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Flood Watch...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-WIZ057-WIZ058- WIZ059-WIZ060 until 7 AM Tuesday. LM...Dense Fog Advisory...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565- LMZ567-LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673- LMZ675-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876 until 7 AM Tuesday. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee  520 FXUS65 KABQ 140522 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1122 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1103 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 - Strong and gusty spring winds will continue through this evening, then return Tuesday, Thursday and Friday, with the strongest winds each day across eastern NM. Hazardous crosswinds will create difficult travel for large and high-profile vehicles. - Critical fire weather conditions with also return to New Mexico several days this week. Critical fire weather conditions will persist this afternoon across northeast NM, then return across portions of the area Tuesday, Thursday and Friday. - Temperatures are expected to drop below freezing Friday night across many areas. Take precautions to protect early blooming plants. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 158 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Strong southwest winds have developed across much of the area today. These winds will persist through early evening before slowly diminishing. Light rain and virga showers are also developing across western NM early this afternoon ahead of the upper level low over SoCal. These will continue to expand, and slightly increase in intensity, through the evening hours. Wetting precipitation remains unlikely through sunset. Showers will continue off and on overnight across the northern mountains. Snow levels will fall to near 8500 feet, so a changeover to snow is expected across the high peaks and a few inches of accumulation is possible at the highest elevations. The upper level low will lift northeastward and weaken on Tuesday as it crosses SE UT and moves into CO. As the system crosses SE UT Tuesday morning, another round of light showers and a few thunderstorms will impact northwest and north central NM. These showers will be brief, then strong southwest to west winds will develop once again. Winds will be a bit stronger on Tuesday than they are today areawide. Northeast NM will see the strongest winds as a sfc low deepens to near 995-998mb across SE CO and some of the H7 flow of 35 to 40kt mixes to the surface. Gusts near 50 mph appear likely, thus have issued a Wind Advisory for much of NE NM between noon and 7pm. Temperatures on Tuesday will fall a few degrees from today's readings, thanks to a Pacific cold front tracking from west to east through the aftn. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 158 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A weak trough, loosely attendant to the main upper low, will cross NM on Wednesday with little fanfare. A few breezes will be noted across east central NM, but far lighter than today or Tuesday. The next storm system will dive southward toward northern UT from the PacNW on Thursday before crossing CO on Friday. Southwest flow will increase on Thursday in response to the approaching system. By late afternoon, H7 winds will be near 30kt, but mixing heights will approach H5 where winds will be closer to 40-45kt. Breezy to windy conditions will be felt areawide, though likely shy of any Wind Advisories. That will change on Friday, however. As the system crosses CO, the base of the trough will cross squarely over NM. In addition to mountain wave activity that morning as H7 winds approach 50kt, daytime mixing and a Pacific front will bring strong and gusty winds to most areas. Strongest winds will be felt across northern NM, and provided the timing remains the same, the strongest gusts may very well be with the frontal passage. Blowing dust will be possible, especially as moisture from recent rainfall will have evaporated after several days of dry and windy conditions. Once the winds relax Friday night, excellent radiational cooling conditions are expected. Many areas are expected to drop below freezing, with hard freezes possible and many northern and western locations. Even portions of the ABQ metro will get close to freezing. Quiet conditions are expected for Saturday. There are some indications that Gulf moisture will begin to seep back into NM on Sunday, though not looking like much precipitation will occur, yet. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1103 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 An upper low currently over Las Vegas, NV is continuing to spin up strong southwesterly winds into New Mexico this evening. This will continue at many locations overnight with gusts of 12 to 20kts continuing. There are however some protected valley locations like KABQ and KSAF seeing wind speeds already abating this hour. Southwesterly winds increase notably Tuesday morning, peaking in strength Tuesday afternoon with widespread gusts of 25 to 35 kts. Precipitation tonight will be relegated mainly to areas along and west of the Continental Divide and north of I-40, including KGUP and KFMN. Have included TEMPOs at these terminals for MVFR conditions during the predawn hours Tuesday morning. Localized IFR conditions can't entirely be ruled out but are currently unlikely. LLWS will also be widespread tonight mainly along the and immediately east of the central mountain chain before subsiding Tuesday morning as stronger winds at the surface pick up. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 158 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Critical fire weather conditions are expected on several days this week. For the remainder of today, strong southwesterly winds will persist through early evening areawide, but the lowest RH values will remain across northeast NM. The Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 7pm. Several locations across Colfax and Union counties received near or less than a tenth of an inch over the weekend, and this moisture has likely already evaporated in the fine fuels. On Tuesday, the Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for eastern NM. Some areas of east central NM received between one half inch and 2 inches of rainfall recently (mainly Curry and Roosevelt counties), so ERCs are quite a bit more marginal in this area. Nonetheless, strong southwest winds will redevelop Tuesday afternoon, and will be somewhat stronger than today with gusts up to 50 mph. RH values will fall to near 15 percent across the area as well. Will let the next shift make the final call on which zones to upgrade. Quieter conditions are expected Wednesday, though locally critical fire weather conditions may develop around Clines Corners in the afternoon. Stronger winds return Thursday and Friday. Breezy to windy conditions will be felt nearly areawide on Thursday, but the strongest winds will be across eastern NM. Much drier conditions are also anticipated with RH values dropping below 10 percent for 6 to 10 hours across eastern NM and portions of central NM. By this time, any moisture that fell over the weekend will have little impact, thus critical fire weather conditions appear likely for eastern NM. Even stronger winds are expected on Friday, with gusts topping 50 mph for many areas near and north of I-40. In fact, Friday will likely feature the strongest winds of the week. RH values will again fall below 10 percent across eastern NM, but sub-15% will be common elsewhere. Widespread critical fire conditions will be likely. Quieter conditions on tap for the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 40 59 34 67 / 70 40 10 0 Dulce........................... 29 54 21 62 / 80 80 10 0 Cuba............................ 36 57 29 61 / 70 40 5 0 Gallup.......................... 30 56 23 65 / 50 50 5 0 El Morro........................ 34 55 29 61 / 40 10 0 0 Grants.......................... 32 61 26 67 / 40 10 0 0 Quemado......................... 35 60 29 63 / 20 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 43 65 36 66 / 10 0 0 0 Datil........................... 38 59 31 62 / 20 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 34 65 26 70 / 40 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 37 69 30 74 / 50 0 0 0 Chama........................... 28 47 21 54 / 90 90 10 5 Los Alamos...................... 41 57 35 60 / 80 20 5 5 Pecos........................... 37 60 31 62 / 60 10 5 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 36 53 29 57 / 70 20 5 5 Red River....................... 31 45 24 48 / 60 20 5 10 Angel Fire...................... 25 52 18 54 / 50 10 5 10 Taos............................ 32 58 24 62 / 70 20 5 5 Mora............................ 35 59 29 60 / 50 10 5 5 Espanola........................ 39 65 32 68 / 70 20 5 0 Santa Fe........................ 40 60 35 62 / 70 10 5 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 40 63 33 65 / 70 10 5 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 48 68 42 68 / 50 5 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 46 70 39 70 / 50 5 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 45 72 38 73 / 50 5 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 48 69 40 70 / 50 5 0 0 Belen........................... 43 74 35 73 / 30 5 5 0 Bernalillo...................... 46 70 39 71 / 60 5 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 42 73 34 73 / 40 5 0 0 Corrales........................ 47 71 39 72 / 50 5 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 43 73 36 73 / 40 5 0 0 Placitas........................ 46 65 40 66 / 60 10 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 47 69 40 70 / 50 5 0 0 Socorro......................... 46 76 40 75 / 10 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 43 63 37 63 / 60 5 5 0 Tijeras......................... 43 64 37 64 / 50 5 5 0 Edgewood........................ 40 65 33 65 / 40 5 5 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 35 67 29 66 / 40 5 5 0 Clines Corners.................. 39 63 32 62 / 30 5 5 0 Mountainair..................... 42 67 33 65 / 30 5 5 0 Gran Quivira.................... 43 66 34 65 / 20 0 5 0 Carrizozo....................... 51 69 40 68 / 20 5 5 0 Ruidoso......................... 46 62 38 61 / 10 5 5 0 Capulin......................... 38 65 29 62 / 0 0 0 10 Raton........................... 33 67 28 66 / 10 0 0 5 Springer........................ 36 70 30 68 / 10 0 0 5 Las Vegas....................... 39 63 31 64 / 30 5 0 5 Clayton......................... 47 74 39 70 / 0 0 0 5 Roy............................. 43 69 35 67 / 5 0 5 5 Conchas......................... 48 78 38 76 / 10 5 5 5 Santa Rosa...................... 46 74 39 71 / 10 5 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 51 81 42 77 / 5 5 5 0 Clovis.......................... 52 80 45 76 / 0 5 10 0 Portales........................ 52 81 45 78 / 0 5 10 0 Fort Sumner..................... 48 79 41 76 / 5 5 0 0 Roswell......................... 53 83 47 80 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 49 74 41 73 / 5 0 0 0 Elk............................. 48 71 39 71 / 5 5 5 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Tuesday for NMZ104-123- 125-126. Wind Advisory from noon to 7 PM MDT Tuesday for NMZ223-226>236- 240. && $$ SHORT TERM...34 LONG TERM....34 AVIATION...24  533 FXUS65 KFGZ 140523 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1023 PM MST Mon Apr 13 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Windy weather continues today. The next round of showers is expected this afternoon into Tuesday, with the highest chances tonight. Accumulating snow is possible above 6000 feet tonight into Tuesday morning which could lead to slick travel conditions. Another round of windy weather is expected Thursday, followed by cooler temperatures Friday as a weather system passes to our north. && .DISCUSSION...A closed low is dropping into southern California this afternoon, and will move northeastward across our region this evening into early Tuesday morning. Ahead of this low, southwest winds have increased to 15-25 mph with some gusts 30-45 mph. A Wind Advisory continues until 8 PM MST from the Mogollon Rim/White Mtns northeastward. As the low moves closer this afternoon, isolated rain showers are expected to develop. Instability is limited, so only isolated thunderstorms are possible. By later this evening and overnight, the closed low moves across our region, bringing an increase in shower activity from west to east. Colder air with the system will drop snow levels as low as 6000-6500 feet by mid to late evening, including portions of I-40/I-17 and Hwy 180/64 up to the Grand Canyon. Precipitation rates may be briefly heavy, with general snowfall accumulation of 1-3" forecast along the western parts of the Mogollon Rim (Flagstaff region), Kaibab Plateau, and higher parts of the Black Mesa/Chuska Mtns. Forecast amounts farther east along the Mogollon Rim into the White Mtns have trended down, with under an inch in our latest package. By sunrise Tuesday, the low will be in southeast Utah and moving out of our area. Some lingering rain and snow showers are expected mainly along the AZ/UT state line, with isolated showers later in the afternoon down to the Mogollon Rim but impacts will be minimal by that time. Daytime highs Tuesday will be around 10 degrees below normal for mid April. Wednesday - a shortwave ridge moves in, bringing temperatures back near normal and lighter winds. Thursday and Friday - another trough is forecast to pass by to our north, bringing windy (gusts 35-45 mph) but continued mild weather Thursday followed by cooler temperatures Friday. It still looks like the trough passes too far north for precipitation in Arizona, with PoP values less than 10% along the northern border Friday. Very dry air behind this shortwave and decreasing winds could lead to some of the coldest temperatures we've seen in well over a month on Saturday morning at high country locations. For example, our current forecast low Sat AM is 20F at Flagstaff and the last time it was that cold was March 8th. If you live above 6000 feet you may want to think about protecting any outside plants and/or disconnecting hoses. The rest of the weekend looks dry with a warming trend. && .AVIATION...Tuesday 14/06Z through Wednesday 15/06Z...Mainly VFR conditions with MVFR conditions in scattered -SHRA/-SHSN through 12Z. Periods of IFR are possible in SHSN over the higher terrain. ISO showers possible through 00Z/Wed. Lingering MVFR CIGs through 15Z, then mainly VFR expected. SW winds 10-20 kts with locally higher gusts of 30-40 kts possible along a KSOW-KSJN line overnight. Winds become W 5-15 kts gusting to 20-25 kts after 16Z. OUTLOOK...Wednesday 15/06Z through Friday 17/06Z...VFR conditions. SW winds 5-15 kts on Wednesday, increasing to 10-20 kts with gusts to 30 kts on Thursday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Tonight through Wednesday...Showers will spread across northern Arizona this afternoon through the evening, with snow levels dropping to 6000-6500 ft overnight. General snow accumulations of a trace amounts to 3 inches are anticipated. Isolated showers linger through Tuesday afternoon, then dry conditions return on Wednesday. Winds are west at 10-20 mph gusting to 30 mph on Tuesday, then southwest through west 5-15 mph on Wednesday. Thursday through Saturday...Dry through the period. Winds are southwest at 10-20 mph gusting 25-35 mph on Thursday, shifting northwest on Friday, then variable 5-15 mph on Saturday. Minimum RH is 10-20% on Thursday and Friday, then 10-15% on Saturday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...JJ AVIATION...Meola FIRE WEATHER...Lewandowski For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff  812 FXUS66 KLOX 140523 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 1023 PM PDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .SYNOPSIS...13/755 PM. Showers over the area have diminished, with just a few isolated light showers this evening. Dry and warmer weather is expected for the remainder of this week. Gusty northerly winds will affect much of the area on Thursday, shifting to northeast and becoming focused over Los Angeles and Ventura Counties on Friday. && .SHORT TERM (MON-THU)...13/823 PM. ***UPDATE*** A cold upper low moved over the area today, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms to the area. LA County was by far the most affected by these storms, with plentiful lightning and brief bursts of heavy rainfall. However, these stronger storms were not widespread, mainly affecting the San Fernando Valley and the mountains. Higher totals ranged from 0.15 to 0.55 inch over the San Gabriels, with 0.15 to 0.20 inch over the San Fernando and Santa Clarita Valleys. Much lighter totals occurred further west, with little to no rain over the northern counties. Gusty westerly winds are affecting many areas behind the storm system this evening, with northwest to north winds over Southwestern Santa Barbara County. The winds will subside overnight, but expect a repeat of gusty Sundowner winds, somewhat stronger than tonight but likely still below Advisory level. In addition, gusty southwest to west winds will affect the interior passes and canyons into the Antelope Valley. Today's highs were below normal, with mid to upper 60s along the coast and valleys, and around 60 over the far interior. Expect a warming and drying trend Tuesday into Wednesday, highs rising 4 to 8 degrees for most areas on Tuesday, with an additional few degrees of warming on Wednesday. .LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...13/314 AM. An inside slider is expected to work its way down the state line on Thursday, followed by dry NW to N flow on Friday. Thursday morning will feature onshore flow to the east and offshore flow from the north. On Friday there will be weak offshore flow from both the north and east in the morning. There will not be much wind on Thursday, but Thursday night and Friday decent north flow will develop in the mtns with advisory level gusts likely through the I-5 corridor and the Santa Barbara county mountains. Max temps will not change much on Thursday, but the offshore flow will bring 2 to 4 degrees of warming to most of the area on Friday. On Saturday the upper flow turn westerly. There will still be some offshore flow at the sfc, but with no upper support it will only generate sub advisory canyon winds. Max temps will respond to the continued offshore flow and 3 to 5 degrees of additional warm seems likely. This will bring max temps up into the upper 70s to mid 80s for most of csts/vlys which is 4 to 8 degrees above normal. Mdls are struggling a bit with the pattern for Sunday. All mdls show a large upper low spinning somewhere to the NW but there is massive disagreement on the location. For now the forecast is similar to Saturday with just a little cooling across the csts as the offshore flow weakens. && .AVIATION...14/0206Z. At 2138Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer or inversion. Overall, high confidence in 00Z TAF package as VFR conditions are expected for most sites through the period. There is a 30-40% chance for MVFR cigs at KPRB after 10Z. KLAX...High confidence in 00Z TAF as VFR conditions are expected through the period. No significant easterly wind component is expected. KBUR...High confidence in 00Z TAF as VFR conditions are expected through the period. && .MARINE...13/1021 PM. For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Friday, high confidence in a combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas. On Thursday and Thursday night, there is a 30-40% chance of GALE force winds. For Saturday, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds. For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Current SCA was extended until 1 AM tonight due to lingering strong winds. Tuesday through Thursday, high confidence in SCA level winds during the afternoon and evening hours. On Friday and Saturday, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours. For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. The current SCA was extended into early Tuesday morning with gusty winds lingering. For Tuesday through Thursday, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel, but only a 20-30% chance of SCA level winds elsewhere. For Friday through Saturday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 1 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 645-655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 4 AM PDT Tuesday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT Tuesday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Ciliberti/Rorke AVIATION...PHILLIPS/RAT MARINE...Phillips/RAT SYNOPSIS...Ciliberti weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox  221 FXUS63 KICT 140525 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1225 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - An isolated severe thunderstorm possible late this afternoon and evening. - Better chances for thunderstorms and associated severe weather Tuesday afternoon-evening, and again late Wednesday. - Additional thunderstorm chances and associated severe weather possible Friday afternoon-evening. - Well above average temperatures through Friday, cool down for next weekend. - Extreme grassland fire danger west of I-135 through Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 312 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 PRECIPITATION: LATE THIS AFTERNOON--EVENING...Today's severe weather threat is conditional, as storm development will likely struggle given only modest dryline convergence and little to no upper forcing for large scale ascent. However, low-level moisture is a bit richer compared to yesterday at this time, which should support weaker convective inhibition. Additionally, there is some CAM support for isolated thunderstorm development. If a storm or two is able to develop, a favorable combination of strong buoyancy and 40-50 kts of effective deep layer shear oriented perpendicular to the dryline would support supercells capable of all severe weather hazards. Area and time would be 5-10 PM generally along/east of the KS Turnpike. TUESDAY AFTERNOON--EVENING...Thunderstorm chances and associated severe weather potential aren't quite as clear cut for late Tuesday, with the overall uncertainty increasing. With the upper wave slowing down some, dryline convergence looks only modest by late Tuesday afternoon, which may prove challenging for widespread convective initiation. However, as the evening progresses large scale forcing increasing from the west in concert with the low-level jet ramping up should support an eventual uptick in thunderstorm coverage. Additionally, any storms that form may tend to evolve toward mixed/messy mode, due to a decent component of the deep layer shear oriented parallel to the NE-SW dryline, which would tend to cut into higher-end severe potential. Despite these uncertainties, we will continue messaging the potential for severe storms given the strong combination of shear/buoyancy ahead of the dryline. Area and time would be generally along/southeast of a line extending from Harper to Wichita to Hillsboro between about 4pm and midnight. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON--EVENING...With model consensus hanging back the parent upper trough, the pre-dryline warm/moist/unstable airmass may should remain intact across the region for additional thunderstorm chances Wednesday afternoon-evening, mainly east of the Kansas Turnpike. However, the quality of the warm sector will be contingent on how widespread Tuesday evening/night thunderstorm activity is. If this scenario pans out, buoyancy and shear combination would favor a severe threat, although strong forcing and shear vectors mostly parallel to the dryline would likely support a mixed/messy/linear storm mode and limit a higher-end severe threat. FRIDAY AFTERNOON--EVENING...Deterministic and ensemble consensus continues to support a reloading warm/moist/unstable sector by late week, as another western CONUS upper trough deepens. A sharpening dryline/cold front combination along with strong instability and shear look to be present. This could support another round of thunderstorms (possibly severe) as we head into late Friday. Still lots of uncertainty this far out regarding timing, placement, and amplitude of synoptic features, stay tuned. TEMPERATURES/WIND: Given rather persistent western CONUS troughing and associated lee troughing over the High Plains, breezy/gusty south winds and above average temperatures look to likely persist through this entire work week. The warmest days look to be today, Tuesday, and Thursday, when low-level thickness supports high temperatures in the 80s for most across the forecast area. As we head into next weekend, model consensus supports a cool down in wake of a strong cold front, with potential below average temperatures Saturday and Sunday, and even possible near freezing temperatures early Sunday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1222 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Low-level wind shear will impact south central and southeast Kansas TAF sites through early Tuesday as the low-level jet ramps up. Some MVFR cigs will be confined to southeast Kansas impacting KCNU through mid-morning before mixing out. Gusty southerly winds may gust around 35-40 knots at times on Tuesday afternoon as the dryline mixes eastward over the area once again. Widely scattered storms will become increasingly likely along and east of the dryline after 21-22Z with severe storms likely. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 312 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 TODAY--TUESDAY...Lower relative humidity and gusty southwest winds just west of a dryline will support VERY HIGH to EXTREME grassland fire danger west of Interstate 135 both today and Tuesday. Red flag warning remains in effect through 9pm this evening west of I-135, and the fire weather watch will be upgraded to a red flag warning Tuesday. Otherwise, spring green-up amidst rather high daytime humidity values should keep grassfire danger in check for most areas generally east of I-135 the next 7 days. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033-047-048-050-067-082-091. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADK AVIATION...MWM FIRE WEATHER...ADK  179 FXUS64 KTSA 140525 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1225 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1225 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - A window for higher-end severe weather potential exists today (Tuesday) into Wednesday. - Warm, humid, and breezy southerly flow continues for much of the week. Most days will have at least a low chance of precipitation. - Another chance of showers and thunderstorms, some potentially severe, is expected during the day Friday to Saturday before cooler air arrives behind a cold front. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Tuesday Night) Issued at 1137 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Quiet, mild, and breezy weather will persevere overnight tonight and through Tuesday morning. Will maintain very low PoPs (around 10%) area-wide through around midday, with an isolated shower/storm possible. For what its worth, high resolution models (CAMs) show the highest chances of light precipitation occurring in the terrain areas of southeast OK and northwest AR, where orographic lifting may produce a few showers/storms. Most locations should remain dry through at least noon Tuesday. Around midday, a positively tilted mid-level trough will begin to center itself over the Rockies. Low/mid-level ascent and upper- level divergence will overspread the region. At the surface, a sharp dryline will remain anchored across western OK. This dryline is forecast to orient itself more southwest to northeast by the afternoon. Latest CAMs suggest there may be isolated convection west of the forecast area early in the afternoon, but more robust convection is anticipated to initiate along the dryline in central/north-central OK late in the afternoon before moving into the forecast area early in the evening. Exact coverage of storms is still a little nebulous at this time, but current thinking is isolated to widely scattered storms will move into eastern OK around or just before sunset, with best overall severe potential near and north of I-44. A plethora of instability, deep layer shear, and moisture will be in place for the potential of all severe weather hazards, including large hail, damaging wind gusts, and isolated tornadoes. In fact, the atmosphere will be primed for long-track supercells to take place if cells are able to stay discrete. Despite a capping inversion trying to develop after sunset, the tornado threat will remain in place through at least mid-evening as a 40-50 knot low-level jet develops north of I-40, keeping low-level shear elevated. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will continue through the late evening and overnight hours, but at this time, the severe threat is expected to trend lower as storms continue to shift into far eastern OK and northwest AR and away from the better support for strong/severe storms. Another breezy and mild night is forecast Tuesday night, with overnight lows generally in the mid-60s. Mejia && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 1137 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A very similar, unstable weather setup will occur on Wednesday. The mid/upper-level trough from Tuesday will move over the Plains on Wednesday afternoon. Instability, moisture, deep layer shear, and lift will all be sufficient or more than enough for all severe weather hazards to occur, especially during the late afternoon and evening hours. There is still some uncertainty on how things evolve Wednesday and may or may not depend on what happens Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Models show a couple of weak perturbations ejecting ahead of the main trough axis mid-late Wednesday morning, sparking convection across eastern OK and northwestern AR through the early-mid afternoon hours. Models show an uncapped environment with these storms and they would have the potential to become severe. But the main severe potential is still expected to occur late afternoon into the evening as storms initiate off the dryline, which will be situated across central/north-central OK. Better details on the severe weather setup on Wednesday to come over the next 24 hours. The aforementioned trough will finally exit Thursday morning/afternoon. Very warm and humid conditions will continue Thursday and Friday, with afternoon high temperatures reaching the low-mid 80s both days. Another potent upper-level storm system will approach from the west on Friday, introducing the next opportunity of precipitation and will also bring additional severe thunderstorm opportunities to the area during the afternoon and evening. Details are even more indefinite with this system and more information will be added over the next few days. A cold front will push through the forecast area on the backside of the the departing storm system Friday night into Saturday morning. Precipitation chances should end by Saturday afternoon, with dry weather through at least Sunday night. Much cooler and drier weather is anticipated behind the front on Saturday, Sunday and even through the first part of the upcoming workweek, with temperatures dropping closer to seasonal average. Low-end precipitation chances may creep back into the forecast next Monday afternoon/evening as a weak and subtle wave approaches from the west. Mejia && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Low clouds will overspread the region over the next several hours, with the highest potential for MVFR cigs from KMLC northeast into NW AR. There is some potential at the NE OK sites, though confidence is lower and have thus continued TEMPO mention from previous forecast. LLWS conditions are expected through around daybreak Tuesday, followed by strong and gusty south winds during the day. Storms are expected to develop on the dryline Tuesday afternoon, but latest CAM guidance does not have much in the way of coverage. Thus, will continue prob30 mention from previous forecast and adjust the timing back just a bit. Lacy && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 84 67 77 62 / 50 70 80 60 FSM 84 67 80 64 / 20 50 70 90 MLC 82 66 77 64 / 40 70 80 70 BVO 86 64 78 57 / 50 60 70 60 FYV 82 64 76 61 / 20 60 70 90 BYV 83 66 77 62 / 10 60 70 90 MKO 82 65 76 61 / 40 70 80 70 MIO 83 65 75 61 / 50 70 80 80 F10 82 64 76 62 / 50 70 80 60 HHW 81 65 77 64 / 20 30 60 80 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...67 LONG TERM....67 AVIATION...30  577 FXUS63 KJKL 140526 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 126 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Unseasonably warm conditions are expected for much of the next week. The warmest days are forecast to be Tuesday through Saturday. New daily record high temperatures are possible, if not likely, on the warmest days. - Small shower and thunderstorm chances return on Tuesday. Additional showers/storms are possible Thursday and Thursday night, and again into the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1056 PM EDT MON APR 13 2026 All is quiet across eastern Kentucky this evening as temperatures dip back into the 60s over the ridges and into 50s through many of the valleys. A little fog is forming in the upper reaches of the Cumberland River Valley where rain fell earlier this evening. Through the remainder of the night, look for the surface pressure gradient to gradually tighten overnight, likely leading to renewed occasional mixing. This should keep valleys from cooling off too much more and in some cases temperatures may actually rise later in the night. There is still a low chance for some more very light rainfall in the morning with a subtle disturbance, primarily after the daybreak as suggested by the lower resolution models. (The CAMs still aren't really latching on the idea yet). UPDATE Issued at 735 PM EDT MON APR 13 2026 An area of lingering light rain over far southeastern Kentucky is gradually diminishing at update time and should depart by ~1Z. Once the rain ends, fair weather can be expected for the remainder of the overnight with temperatures falling back into the 50s to near 60F. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 430 PM EDT MON APR 13 2026 Late this afternoon, an upper level ridge was centered in the eastern Gulf and extended across parts of Central America. An upper level low was centered in the Hudson Bay vicinity while an upper level trough extended across western portions of the Conus. This pattern is resulting in southwest flow aloft across eastern KY and the OH Valley region. At the surface, a ridge of high pressure was centered in parts of the Atlantic and extended into the Southeast to Southern Appalachians. Showers were moving across southern portions of the area at this time as well as over Elliott County. Rainfall has ranged from a few sprinkles or a traces in southern portions of the area to as much as third of an inch or so north of the Mountain Parkway. Temperatures as if 4 PM were mainly in the 70s with a few 60s where some of the heavier showers were occurring. Southwest to west southwest flow should dominate through the short term period as upper level ridging remains centered in the eastern Gulf into parts of the southeast and the current western Conus trough moves into the High Plains and nears the Central Conus. This evening and tonight, as the disturbance that is aiding the shower activity across the region moves east of the area this evening, shower chances will diminish and low and mid level clouds should thin at least for a few hours in the evening to the overnight per model time height sections. This should allow for valleys to decouple as the clouds thin and a moderate magnitude ridge/valley split. Lower 50s should occur in the normally colder valleys while ridges settle near 60s. If there is sufficient clearing where some of the heavier rain fell, some fog could form, but confidence was not high enough to include at this point given the recent dryness. Another disturbance in southwest flow between the upper ridge centered over the eastern Gulf to portions of the southeast and an upper trough that moves across portions of the western Conus should approach late tonight and cross the area on Tuesday. In advance of it, an uptick in the LLJ should occur late tonight into early on Tuesday. This could result in shower activity toward dawn, especially in the northwest, though recent CAM runs and have minimal activity late tonight and on Tuesday for that matter. The past two GFS runs have more in the way of activity for that matter while the ECMWF also is more scant with activity. The neutral height tendencies if not slight rises on Tuesday support the idea of minimal activity. For now isolated to scattered pops were carried for Tuesday. With less shower activity and southwest flow leading to warm air advection, temperatures should warm compared to today with widespread highs in the 80 anticipated. Ridging dominates for Tuesday night withe less potential for low and mid level clouds. This should support an even wider ridge valley split of low to mid 50s eastern/southeastern valleys to low to mid 60s on ridgetops and more open terrain locations. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 507 PM EDT MON APR 13 2026 An amplified long wave pattern continues through early next week. A strong and persistent ridge will remain planted from central Mexico to Florida through early this weekend. This feature will then pivot more southeast by early next week, as an onslaught of eastern Pacific energy throughout this week finally dislodges it. Model agreement is decent early on, but then becomes less, with greater differences showing up by this weekend and into early next week. Eastern Kentucky will continue to find itself under the influence of the strong ridging to our southeast through Saturday. Well above normal temperatures, nearing record status at times, will remain in place. Highs each day will average in the mid to upper 80s, with a few low 90s possible, especially Wednesday and Friday/Saturday. Lows will average in the 50s and 60s each night. The next decent chance of rain will move in Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, as a well-defined short wave trough tracks east from the middle Mississippi Valley through the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. PoPs will peak in the 40-60% range. Unfortunately, QPF continues to look lean, with most locations likely seeing a tenth of an inch or less, although any thunderstorms could locally overachieve. A much deeper trough will move from the Plains to the eastern CONUS this weekend into early next week, with a surface cold front finally making it across the Commonwealth. QPF could be more substantial and beneficial with this system; however, will await further model trends before getting too optimistic. PoPs peak in the 50-60% range Saturday night, with some chances extending into Sunday, depending on the timing. This cold front will also bring an end to the heatwave, with highs retreating to mainly the 60s for both Sunday and Monday. Some frost potential may follow for Sunday night and perhaps Monday night in the valleys, depending on model trends. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2026 VFR conditions prevailed at TAF issuance and are likely to prevail through the period. A disturbance grazing the area has allowed for the formation of a low-level jet and LLWS across the TAF sites during the early morning hours. This will diminish near or shortly after sunrise this morning. Otherwise, some isolated shower and/or thunderstorm activity is possible Tuesday but confidence in impacts and timing was too low to retain in the latest TAF issuance outside of a PROB30 mention. Southwest winds at 5 to 15 kts with gusts of 15 to 25 kts should return for most of the daylight hours on Tuesday, with strongest winds west of I-75 and near/north of I-64. These winds will subside with the loss of daytime heating Tuesday evening. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...GEERTSON SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...JKL AVIATION...CMC  567 FXUS66 KMFR 140526 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1026 PM PDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .UPDATE...Aviation Discussion updated. && .DISCUSSION.../Issued 134 PM PDT Mon Apr 13 2026/ SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front will bring precipitation and snow to the higher Cascades Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Minor travel impacts are anticipated above 4000 feet. Colder air will settle into the valleys Wednesday night and Thursday night. DISCUSSION... A band of showers has started to fill in the radar mainly west of the Cascades this early afternoon. These showers will move farther east into the afternoon as they're likely enhanced by a short wave diving towards the southeast. High pressure will then build Monday night into Tuesday as the relative calm before the storm. It looks like there will be lots of clouds still covering the valleys overnight, except east of the Cascades, which will see pockets of clearing later tonight. Therefore, Klamath Falls could see some fog or perhaps freezing fog in the morning hours. Tuesday will be mostly quiet until the evening hours as this next system descends on the Pacific Northwest. A well defined cold front will progress through the Cascades and Oregon during Tuesday night and eventually pass completely through by Wednesday evening. The main impacts here will be snow in the Cascades and we have went with a winter weather advisory above 4000 feet to communicate this threat. The probability for >12 inches over our 'populated' areas in the high Cascades is roughly 50%. In addition, some warmer ground and melting when the snow hits the ground could mean this probabilities are a little high. Also, the extreme forecast index(EFI) continues to point towards values of 0.8 to 0.9, which denotes a strong snow event for mid April in the high Cascades. Once the front moves through, the cold air will settle into the valleys with snow levels falling down to 1800 feet on Wednesday night. Precipitation will trend lower once this colder relatively dry air settles into the valleys, although the NBM has a 40% chance of precipitation Wednesday night. Don't be surprised to see some trace amounts of snow along the coastal range and some of the valley edges Wednesday night. The near freezing temperatures will also threaten agricultural operations as lows hover right around freezing. The probability of sub-freezing temperatures in Medford is about 40% Wednesday night. We'll see highs in the mid 50's on Thursday with mid 40's east of the Cascades. This cold air is unusually, although not the coldest we can see this time of year. Basically 10 degrees below normal for the middle of April. Again, the valleys will have to deal with freezing temperatures on Thursday night. There will be less sky cover, especially farther south near the California and Oregon border. Mount Shasta City is currently forecast to tie the record minimum temperature of 25 set back in 2018 on Thursday night. Most other sites will be just a tad bit too warm to break a record. Friday and Saturday will likely be quiet before the next system strengthens in the north eastern Pacific off the coast of Washington. We'll likely see a shot of warm moist air before some cooler air settles in as the low moves closer to shore. Still more details to sort out, but we could see some more snow added to the mountains with this next event as well. -Smith && .AVIATION 06Z TAFs)... Conditions are mainly VFR tonight through Tuesday morning. However, MVFR is expected to develop along the coast tonight and persist through Tuesday. Local MVFR ceilings are possible late tonight and Tuesday morning west of the Cascades, including at Roseburg and Medford (20% chance). Tuesday afternoon and evening, rain and areas of MVFR will spread along the coast and into areas from the Cascades west. Conditions may worsen Tuesday evening with a mix of IFR/MVFR conditions in rain for coast areas. && .MARINE...Updated 100 PM PDT Monday, April 13, 2026...Seas will stay below advisory level strength through Tuesday morning. A front will pass through the region Tuesday evening. This will result in widespread precipitation, strong winds, and steep seas starting Tuesday evening. Localized areas of very steep and hazardous seas may be possible north of Coos Bay as the front initially starts to transition over the waters. Steep seas will continue behind the front through Thursday afternoon. A thermal trough may bring gusty northerly winds over the outer waters and south of Cape Blanco on Friday. Another active system may bring additional rainfall and steep seas this weekend. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 521 PM PDT Mon Apr 13 2026/ UPDATE...Aviation Discussion updated. DISCUSSION.../Issued 134 PM PDT Mon Apr 13 2026/ SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front will bring precipitation and snow to the higher Cascades Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Minor travel impacts are anticipated above 4000 feet. Colder air will settle into the valleys Wednesday night and Thursday night. DISCUSSION... A band of showers has started to fill in the radar mainly west of the Cascades this early afternoon. These showers will move farther east into the afternoon as they're likely enhanced by a short wave diving towards the southeast. High pressure will then build Monday night into Tuesday as the relative calm before the storm. It looks like there will be lots of clouds still covering the valleys overnight, except east of the Cascades, which will see pockets of clearing later tonight. Therefore, Klamath Falls could see some fog or perhaps freezing fog in the morning hours. Tuesday will be mostly quiet until the evening hours as this next system descends on the Pacific Northwest. A well defined cold front will progress through the Cascades and Oregon during Tuesday night and eventually pass completely through by Wednesday evening. The main impacts here will be snow in the Cascades and we have went with a winter weather advisory above 4000 feet to communicate this threat. The probability for >12 inches over our 'populated' areas in the high Cascades is roughly 50%. In addition, some warmer ground and melting when the snow hits the ground could mean this probabilities are a little high. Also, the extreme forecast index(EFI) continues to point towards values of 0.8 to 0.9, which denotes a strong snow event for mid April in the high Cascades. Once the front moves through, the cold air will settle into the valleys with snow levels falling down to 1800 feet on Wednesday night. Precipitation will trend lower once this colder relatively dry air settles into the valleys, although the NBM has a 40% chance of precipitation Wednesday night. Don't be surprised to see some trace amounts of snow along the coastal range and some of the valley edges Wednesday night. The near freezing temperatures will also threaten agricultural operations as lows hover right around freezing. The probability of sub-freezing temperatures in Medford is about 40% Wednesday night. We'll see highs in the mid 50's on Thursday with mid 40's east of the Cascades. This cold air is unusually, although not the coldest we can see this time of year. Basically 10 degrees below normal for the middle of April. Again, the valleys will have to deal with freezing temperatures on Thursday night. There will be less sky cover, especially farther south near the California and Oregon border. Mount Shasta City is currently forecast to tie the record minimum temperature of 25 set back in 2018 on Thursday night. Most other sites will be just a tad bit too warm to break a record. Friday and Saturday will likely be quiet before the next system strengthens in the north eastern Pacific off the coast of Washington. We'll likely see a shot of warm moist air before some cooler air settles in as the low moves closer to shore. Still more details to sort out, but we could see some more snow added to the mountains with this next event as well. -Smith AVIATION 00Z TAFs)... Conditions are mainly VFR. However MVFR is expected to develop along the coast tonight and persist into Tuesday. Local MVFR ceilings are possible late tonight and Tuesday morning west of the Cascades. Rain and areas of MVFR will move inland Tuesday afternoon along the coast and into areas from the Cascades west. MARINE...Updated 100 PM PDT Monday, April 13, 2026...Seas will stay below advisory level strength through Tuesday morning. A front will pass through the region Tuesday evening. This will result in widespread precipitation, strong winds, and steep seas starting Tuesday evening. Localized areas of very steep and hazardous seas may be possible north of Coos Bay as the front initially starts to transition over the waters. Steep seas will continue behind the front through Thursday afternoon. A thermal trough may bring gusty northerly winds over the outer waters and south of Cape Blanco on Friday. Another active system may bring additional rainfall and steep seas this weekend. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM Tuesday to 5 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ027. CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Tuesday to 5 PM PDT Thursday for PZZ350-356-370-376. && $$ CC/CC/CC  443 FXUS63 KLMK 140526 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 126 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Well-above normal temperatures continue throughout the upcoming week. A few temperature records may be in jeopardy. * Rain from a quick-hitting shortwave expected Thursday, though rainfall totals likely (80%) remain light under 0.5" in by Friday morning * Friday is very warm with highs in the 80s * Monitoring a cold front with the potential to impact weekend events in Louisville with gusty winds and storms. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 317 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Scattered light showers are ongoing across portions of south-central and eastern KY. These showers are outpacing the instability axis, though there are some pockets of moderate rain due to the relatively higher PWAT axis. This precip activity will end this afternoon, leading to a mostly dry evening due to a lack of any forcing. Temperatures remain warm tonight, which could challenge warm min temps for today if we don't drop into the 60s before midnight. We remain in warm SW flow tomorrow, with ridging over the southeast, and western US troughing. Similar to today, tomorrow is expected to be warm and breezy, though with a bit more sunshine. This will allow temps to be even warmer tomorrow, with afternoon highs in the 80s. Mostly dry conditions are expected throughout the day, though there is a low-end conditional chance for some scattered precip across the northern half of the CWA during the afternoon. Not a lot of confidence in this, and there is not a lot of agreement per the HREF paintballs, but there will be plenty of instability present given the warm temps to at least have some isolated thunder potential. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 317 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Wednesday - Friday Night Wednesday begins warm and quiet with the potential to break warm minimum temperatures in the morning ranging in the mid 60s to near 70 in some areas. Passing clouds will slowly build through the day from a slowly approaching jet streak to our northwest, which may limit some daytime heating ahead of an incoming shortwave or create an isolated shower, though confidence is low for any rain in our northwestern communities (20-30% of measurable rain). Regardless, mid to lower level ridging will be in place, amplifying southwesterly flow. This will boost temperatures well into the low to upper 80s in the afternoon, with the potential to break record highs, especially in warmer southern communities. Broken cloud cover may linger into the overnight as a shortwave rolls in a little closer heading into Thursday morning. With the ample heat from Wednesday, morning lows on Thursday will run high too, with the potential again to break high minimum temperatures in the low to upper 60s. The short term pattern on Thursday changes some, as the approaching shortwave will sweep through from west to east, bringing a round of rain and storms in the afternoon. Confidence with timing is increasing with the front dropping measurable rain near 11am - 2 pm in the west and as late as 5-7 pm in the east (75% of this onset timing). Highs area wide will range in the upper 70s to low 80s, with warmer temperatures further east as they will take the longest for the shortwave to sweep through. Rainfall totals will vary with the placement of heavy downpours from any storms though a general 0.25 - 0.5" in of rain may fall across the area (50-80% of this amount) with isolated 0.75" in (<10%). Ridging returns Friday though with skies clearing during the day. Morning lows will remain mild but probably not record breaking in the upper 50s to low 60s. With a southerly flow returning, Friday should be nice with partly cloudy skies and a slight chance of a shower or storm in the far northwest again (<20%). Highs may be record breaking once again in the mid to upper 80s, and maybe even a few spots reaching 90 degrees. This is all ahead of a larger trough moving in later in the weekend. Friday should remain dry overnight ahead of Saturday's weather. Saturday - Monday Saturday should begin dry with above normal temperatures for morning lows in the mid to upper 60s. S to SW flow will dominate ahead of a strong cold front to move in later in the afternoon bringing highs into the low to mid 80s. Any afternoon plans need to be monitored for potential disruptions as storms are expected to move in by the early afternoon Saturday. Confidence is low on the specific impacts, however threats from gusty winds, and heavy downpours, and lightning are the biggest concerns. The timing of the front is key and current ensemble analysis has the front moving in early in the afternoon, or waiting until after sunset. Whenever the ridge in the southeast US relents and moves further east will determine how quickly storms roll in. Stronger storms could be possible with timing in the afternoon or weaker storms may result with overnight timing. Regardless, everyone will see rain this Saturday and we will monitor this threat over the next few days. Once the front clears, cooler air and some gusty morning winds will move in Sunday as highs may struggle to reach the low 60s. High pressure will reinforce this cooler air leading to quiet weather for Sunday heading into Monday. Calmer weather lingers as long as this high sticks around Monday afternoon as well. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 126 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions are present at all terminals early this morning, and are expected to continue through the current forecast period. Through dawn this morning, LLWS is expected across all forecast sites as a LLJ continues over the region. Once daytime heating can begin, stronger wind gusts should begin to mix down to the surface, with SW winds of 12-18 kt and gusts of 20-27 kt expected during peak heating today. Overall, the chance for any SHRA/TSRA is low (<20%) today, but can't completely rule out an isolated cell through this afternoon. Tonight, wind gusts should ease again as winds are expected to back toward the south around 10 kt through the end of the current forecast period. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CJP LONG TERM...BKF AVIATION...CSG  872 FXUS63 KABR 140527 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1227 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mostly dry through late Thursday. - Temperatures 15 to 25 degrees above normal Thursday (Highs: low 70s to low 80s) and low humidity. This and south winds 25 to 30 mph results in High/Very High Grassland Fire Danger. - Colder Friday/Saturday. Saturday high temperatures 10 to 20 degrees below normal (Highs in the 40s). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1217 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Surface high to the north continues to feed cool stable air into the region around midnight. As such, upslope favored areas with this wind trajectory will again see fog/stratus expand over the next few hours. Towards morning, the pressure gradient is much weaker, winds gradually organizing around to westerly as a surface low lifts northeast across North Dakota. 850mb temperatures are coolest today, ranging between +3 to +9C from northeast to southwest respectively. Will give temperatures a slight bump above deterministic NBM which falls about 3-4 degrees below the NBM mean given the favorable mixing direction, with the expectation that shallow low clouds/fog also mix out with these light west winds. We fall under the influence of a very weak surface high tonight, and on the backside, winds shift back to southerly for Wednesday. We start to see milder air moving in late Wednesday, with the core of the warmest air overhead for Thursday, though with a front positioned just to our northwest. Its another interesting temperature forecast for Thursday with the deterministic NBM again falling close to the 10th percentile for high temperatures, about a difference of 8 degrees between that and the mean. Deterministic model 850mb temperatures run from +16 to +19C with the Canadian being a distinct cool anomaly. The surface flow is around a low that develops over Wyoming with an inverted trough/warm front extending up northeast across South Dakota. This provides for a favorable mixing environment with southwest winds south of the boundary. The big question here is where does this surface feature set up with the main deterministic models having a pretty tight thermal gradient across northwest South Dakota to south central North Dakota and any wobble in the next several runs could translate this gradient elsewhere, and as such could result in a forecast or forecast adjustment bust. Will leave NBM temperatures alone Thursday for now. A side note in regards to these conditions, it is interesting how deep mixing is depicted in NAM BUFKIT profiles, up to approximately 12kft out by Pierre, 10kft for KMBG and 8kft for KABR! Shallow high/surface based altocumulus may result but there is limited CAPE above the deep surface boundary layer, and a substantial dry layer. All this above the 0C layer as well. So maybe add the option for some additional gustiness with dry/snow microburst. That surface low translates southwards, bringing much colder air back into the region for Thursday night/Friday. We go from 850mb temperatures a standard deviation above climo, to a standard deviation below climo for Saturday. Forecast temperatures reflect this with about a 35F drop between Thursday and Friday/Saturday. Precipitation will be pretty meager for the next few days. A mid level deck is depicted in the NAM across south central and far eastern South Dakota today with a deep dry layer. We also see precipitation chances in the NBM increase Friday, as a trough deepens to our west. Most of the model QPF appears to come on the backside of the system as the surface low has moved off well to the east. GFS BUFKIT profiles hint that a deep stratus layer accompanies the change in airmasses, though if this is the case then we'd be looking at more drizzle/sprinkles type precipitation. And while NBM POPs are quite high, overall the QPF is from a few hundreds to maybe 2/10ths. GEFS is in line with this thinking with just a few members showing moisture greater than a tenth of an inch. NBM probability of 0.25 inches or greater is only about 40% across the northern tier of the state, to around 20% from Pierre to Watertown. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1217 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG A decaying gravity wave originating from showers and storms Monday evening is nearing ATY, with winds briefly expected to shift out of the wnw with gusts around 20kts. Ceilings have been difficult to forecast, with VFR to MVFR IFR conditions over the northern third of SD moving at least temporarily over MBG/ABR. Expect the 6SM fog at ATY to expand to IFR by 11Z and remain through mid morning. Expect improving conditions with VFR ceilings/visibility by 16Z at all TAF sites. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...07 AVIATION...06  392 FXUS66 KMFR 140527 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1027 PM PDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .UPDATE...Aviation Discussion updated. && .DISCUSSION.../Issued 134 PM PDT Mon Apr 13 2026/ SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front will bring precipitation and snow to the higher Cascades Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Minor travel impacts are anticipated above 4000 feet. Colder air will settle into the valleys Wednesday night and Thursday night. DISCUSSION... A band of showers has started to fill in the radar mainly west of the Cascades this early afternoon. These showers will move farther east into the afternoon as they're likely enhanced by a short wave diving towards the southeast. High pressure will then build Monday night into Tuesday as the relative calm before the storm. It looks like there will be lots of clouds still covering the valleys overnight, except east of the Cascades, which will see pockets of clearing later tonight. Therefore, Klamath Falls could see some fog or perhaps freezing fog in the morning hours. Tuesday will be mostly quiet until the evening hours as this next system descends on the Pacific Northwest. A well defined cold front will progress through the Cascades and Oregon during Tuesday night and eventually pass completely through by Wednesday evening. The main impacts here will be snow in the Cascades and we have went with a winter weather advisory above 4000 feet to communicate this threat. The probability for >12 inches over our 'populated' areas in the high Cascades is roughly 50%. In addition, some warmer ground and melting when the snow hits the ground could mean this probabilities are a little high. Also, the extreme forecast index(EFI) continues to point towards values of 0.8 to 0.9, which denotes a strong snow event for mid April in the high Cascades. Once the front moves through, the cold air will settle into the valleys with snow levels falling down to 1800 feet on Wednesday night. Precipitation will trend lower once this colder relatively dry air settles into the valleys, although the NBM has a 40% chance of precipitation Wednesday night. Don't be surprised to see some trace amounts of snow along the coastal range and some of the valley edges Wednesday night. The near freezing temperatures will also threaten agricultural operations as lows hover right around freezing. The probability of sub-freezing temperatures in Medford is about 40% Wednesday night. We'll see highs in the mid 50's on Thursday with mid 40's east of the Cascades. This cold air is unusually, although not the coldest we can see this time of year. Basically 10 degrees below normal for the middle of April. Again, the valleys will have to deal with freezing temperatures on Thursday night. There will be less sky cover, especially farther south near the California and Oregon border. Mount Shasta City is currently forecast to tie the record minimum temperature of 25 set back in 2018 on Thursday night. Most other sites will be just a tad bit too warm to break a record. Friday and Saturday will likely be quiet before the next system strengthens in the north eastern Pacific off the coast of Washington. We'll likely see a shot of warm moist air before some cooler air settles in as the low moves closer to shore. Still more details to sort out, but we could see some more snow added to the mountains with this next event as well. -Smith && .AVIATION 06Z TAFs)... Conditions are mainly VFR tonight through Tuesday morning. However, MVFR is expected to develop along the coast tonight and persist through Tuesday. Local MVFR ceilings are possible late tonight and Tuesday morning west of the Cascades, including at Roseburg and Medford (20% chance). Tuesday afternoon and evening, rain and areas of MVFR will spread along the coast and into areas from the Cascades west. Conditions may worsen Tuesday evening with a mix of IFR/MVFR conditions in rain for coast areas. && .MARINE...Updated 100 PM PDT Monday, April 13, 2026...Seas will stay below advisory level strength through Tuesday morning. A front will pass through the region Tuesday evening. This will result in widespread precipitation, strong winds, and steep seas starting Tuesday evening. Localized areas of very steep and hazardous seas may be possible north of Coos Bay as the front initially starts to transition over the waters. Steep seas will continue behind the front through Thursday afternoon. A thermal trough may bring gusty northerly winds over the outer waters and south of Cape Blanco on Friday. Another active system may bring additional rainfall and steep seas this weekend. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM Tuesday to 5 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ027. CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Tuesday to 5 PM PDT Thursday for PZZ350-356-370-376. && $$  354 FXUS65 KGGW 140527 AFDGGW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 1127 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light fog is expected across the northeast in the morning including Plentywood and Scobey. - Below normal temperatures and mixed precipitation Thursday and Friday with gusty NW winds in the afternoons. && .DISCUSSION... WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Early morning fog has moved into the region and settled in across the northeast. While some locations may be reduced further current values have not dropped below about 3 Miles so am holding off of Dense Fog for now. This fog is expected to begin clearing around 8AM and be out of the area by about Noon. The rest of the day The next upper trough moves from the PCNW into the northern Rockies on Wednesday and into the Plains through Friday. This will lead to another round of showers. With colder air in the trough, mixed precipitation is possible across the north with mostly rain elsewhere Wednesday night into Friday morning. Chances across northeast Montana are as follows. QPF: 0.10" (30-90%) 0.25" (15-60%) 0.50" (0-30%) Highest totals focused over the northeast with barely anything over the Yellowstone Valley. Snow: 1" (0-40%) 2" (0-30%) Highest totals focused along the Canadian border with lowest chances (0%) beginning at the Highway 2 and increasing northward. Cool air will remain in place Friday through Saturday with highs in the 40s and 50s and then begin warming rapidly through Monday with Highs in the 70s as a ridge passes through. Ensemble groupings suggest a ridge breakdown Tuesday but this appears to be in flux. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: NBM Deviations include hourly changes to PoP, Sky, and Visibility through the next 12 to 18 hours to account for radar trends and FOG that has developed across the northeast into Tuesday morning. HIGH confidence in fog through 9AM across the northeast this morning. MODERATE confidence in a tenth of an inch CWA wide Wed night to Friday morning. LOW confidence in snow across northern CWA Thursday to Friday morning. GAH && .AVIATION... LAST UPDATE: 0530Z FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR - IFR DISCUSSION: Showers are quickly exiting east to North Dakota late this evening and should be out of the area entirely by about 02Z. However, rain showers from earlier have left behind high humidity areas with fog and LIFR ceilings forming just NE of the KOLF and KSDY terminals. FOG should begin clearing the area around 14Z and out completely by about 18Z. AT which point VFR should be in control through the rest of the cycle. WIND: Light and variable through mid-morning. Becoming W at 10 to 15 kts late morning through the afternoon. Veering SW and reducing to 10 kts or less this evening through tonight. GAH && .GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow  413 FXUS63 KAPX 140528 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 128 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Ongoing flooding may worsen with additional rain and storms tonight. Highest rainfall expected south of M-72. - Severe thunderstorm chances tonight and again Tuesday evening/Tuesday night with primary hazards of damaging winds and large hail. - Additional rounds of rain and mild temperatures through this week before turning cold late this weekend. && .PREVIOUS UPDATE... Issued at 1045 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 This section covers the forecast for the rest of tonight. For latest Area Forecast Discussion addressing the remainder of the forecast period, see the next section. Current forecast theme remains in good standing. Warm frontal boundary draped over the southern reaches of the region will remain the focus for convection as we head through the evening into tonight. Better instability remains to our west, with vigorous convection underway across north-central into northeast Wisconsin. Strengthening low level jet will drive an expanding instability axis into areas along and south of M-72. This particular region will be the primary focus for deeper convection, while more efficient stratiform rainfall occurs elsewhere. Severe potential trends are tending to favor southern and western reaches of the APX footprint, with primary hazards being hail and gusty winds (some of which could have an amplified impact with water-logged soils compromising root integrity on trees). The biggest story from this episode of convection is most certainly the flooding potential. Two different modes of flooding may materialize tonight. For areas north of M-32, lighter but still efficient stratiform rainfall on saturated soils and what is left of the snowpack may still lead to elevated water levels... including the highly sensitive Cheboygan River basin in far northern lower Michigan, along with the Chain of Lakes watershed in northwest lower. In general, this area could see 0.50 to 1.25" of rain by Tuesday morning. The farther south one goes (M-32 and south), the potential for repeated rounds of thunderstorms increases considerably. Torrential rainfall rates may drive a potentially higher end impact flash flooding event, as soils will fail to absorb all that water. Low lying and flood prone areas may be subject to rapid inundation from floodwaters in the event that the worst case scenario arises... which would be rainfall in excess of 2.50" in a short period of time. In addition... with the placement of this rainfall potentially encompassing large portions of the Manistee and Au Sable watersheds, river level rises may be in order again... even with these rivers already exceeding record levels. Much to monitor tonight. Rainfall looks to exit across the board into Tuesday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 128 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Pattern Synopsis: Continued active pattern consisting of troughing over the western CONUS and ridging anchored over the eastern seaboard. This will continue to result in an active, southern stream wave dominant pattern that leads to numerous disturbances riding into the Great Lakes region, focused along a stationary boundary draped over Michigan. A direct Gulf moisture tap will continue to lead to anomalously moist airmasses moving into Michigan, and thus continues a heavy rain and thunderstorm threat through the end of the week. Some signs of a pattern breakdown with cooler weather through the weekend into next week... with perhaps a brief reprieve from the wet conditions as well. Details: Ongoing convection to continue through roughly daybreak. Warm / stationary frontal boundary draped from Frankfort to Harrisville, which will continue to be the focus for deeper convection. Strong low level jet (LLJ) intrusion driving elevated convection north into the Tip of the Mitt as well. Heaviest rainfall rates and severe threat (hail and wind) will still favor areas near and south of M-32, though with the ongoing high water situation across the far northern reaches of northern lower, there will continue to be flooding issues there as well. Rainfall will diminish into the morning hours, giving a temporary break to the area. Dry weather to prevail through Tuesday, with the warm front sliding just south owing to the ongoing convection. Another wave riding this front will traverse lower Michigan. With much more instability to play with, we may be looking at another round of severe storms and heavy rain... but initial thinking from guidance is that this will be suppressed downstate for the most part... perhaps scraping the M- 55 corridor. This will be an all hazards type setup, and unfortunately will have to be refined with time based on where the warm front goes. Nonetheless... it does appear the farther north one goes, there should be a lesser risk of rain and thunderstorms later tonight. Additional waves of energy will barge through the region and deliver more rounds of rainfall. Still a bit fuzzy on the details for the time being... but timing is coming into focus. Additional showers and storms will be possible south on Wednesday, overspreading much of northern lower into Wednesday night - Thursday. Another reprieve likely comes Friday before a larger system passes through the region, delivering yet another round of rain and thunder Friday night through Saturday. This will bring about colder temperatures to the region... with the temperature contrast of colder in eastern upper and mild / 70s south coming to a conclusion. Highs by Sunday will be in the 30s to near 40 across the board with snow chances. The chill will moderate some into midweek next week... with highs possibly reaching back into the 50s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 725 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Another round of showers/embedded thunderstorms and MVFR to IFR producing low cigs/areas of mist expected to develop this evening. While showers end early Tuesday, low clouds and mist will take until late morning and afternoon to lift/scour out. Some gusty winds and brief periods of heavy rain are possible with any stronger storms tonight. Otherwise, winds will remain light. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for MIZ016>018-020>036- 041-042-086>088-095-096-099. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...HAD DISCUSSION...HAD AVIATION...MSB  745 FXUS63 KDLH 140528 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1228 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A decreased severe threat remains for our far southern Wisconsin areas this evening, with a primary risk of two inch golf ball hail and localized, minor flooding possible along portions of the South Shore. - More storms are expected tomorrow afternoon but will mainly stay to our south, though a few could clip our southeast with small hail. - An active pattern continues, with a couple more chances for showers and thunderstorms and even some light snow over the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 101 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A thick deck of low stratus lingers from morning fog over northeast Minnesota and along the South Shore of northwest Wisconsin. This cloud cover, combined with a small line of light showers currently moving northeast in northwest Wisconsin and soon to reach Pine County, will prevent the favorable severe weather environment from reaching most of the area. However, a targeted severe threat remains this evening for our far southern Wisconsin zones, particularly around Price County. The main hazard will be large hail up to two inches in diameter due to a very deep hail growth layer aloft. The tornado and wind threat has dropped significantly as storms will struggle to remain surface based, but a few strong gusts or a brief tornado cannot be completely ruled out if a storm moves up from the south before elevating. Additionally, a localized flash flood risk continues tonight across the South Shore as more rain falls on saturated soils and remaining existing snowpack. Moving into tomorrow, another round of storms is expected in the afternoon, but the bulk of this activity will remain to our south. A few strong storms could clip our southeastern areas and produce small hail. Meanwhile, a broader upper level trough and surface boundary will bring scattered light rain showers across northern Minnesota throughout the day. Temperatures will remain relatively cool, topping out in the 40s and 50s across the region with light easterly winds shifting to the northwest by the late afternoon. The active weather pattern continues into Wednesday as another deep trough in the Central Plains sends a warm front lifting towards the Northland. This system has shifted south, and most showers and storms will once again stay to our south. However, there is a small chance that some weak instability may reach our southern CWA border, and a few thunderstorms producing small hail cannot be ruled out. Temperatures will begin to moderate, reaching the upper 50s and mid 60s for most locations, accompanied by a steady southeast wind. By Thursday, the region gets a brief and partial break, though a few lingering rain showers remain possible, especially in the morning. Temperatures will continue their upward trend, with afternoon highs reaching the 60s up to 70 degrees under partly sunny skies. Friday looks to be highly dynamic as a large, elongated system pulls Gulf moisture northward into the Upper Midwest. Southerly winds will increase, bringing warm air and pushing high temperatures into the upper 60s and lower 70s. This influx of warm, moist air will lead to widespread rain and another potential round of severe thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours as a strong front passes. A quick change arrives for Friday on the back of the system. Strong northwesterly winds will bring in a much colder airmass, sending overnight lows falling back below freezing Friday night. Lingering moisture wrapping around the departing low will likely transition from rain to scattered snow showers or rain/snow mix into Saturday. Since we've been warm lately, the ground will be warm enough that very little snow accumulation is expected, if any. The exception would be isolated areas of higher snowfall rates, though that remains uncertain at this time. High temperatures will struggle to reach 40 degrees. Fortunately, the chill is short lived, with sunny skies and temperatures rebounding into the 50s by Sunday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1227 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Thunderstorm complexes are well off to the southeast this morning with radar showing some scattered rain showers still floating across the Northland, primarily over northern MN. Mostly VFR conditions to start the forecast period but easterly winds off Lake Superior is expected to spread a marine layer over much of the region lowering clouds to LIFR and producing fog. This layer is largely expected to remain in place through the day. There will also be some additional rain that comes through northern MN in the morning. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 101 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Northeast winds will persist over Western Lake Superior into Tuesday as low pressure passes to our south. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect due to wind gusts up to 25 knots and waves building to 4 feet, particularly along the North Shore and Outer Apostle Islands. Winds will gradually ease and become variable by Tuesday night before shifting easterly on Wednesday. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 101 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 No critical fire weather conditions are expected in the near term. An active weather pattern will keep the region wet with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the week. Relative humidity values will remain well above 30%, and winds will generally stay under 15 mph through Thursday before increasing on Friday from the south. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 342 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Over the past 72 hrs we have had a few swaths of 0.25-0.50" over our existing snowpack into the Arrowhead and the South Shore. The highest swatch of over 1" ran through Sawyer into southern Ashland and Iron Counties. There is still some potential for storms to develop late this afternoon and evening and move across our Flood Watch counties, but chances have decreased as the warm front that will be the focal point for storm initiation is projected to be farther south. Additional rainfall of around 0.50" will be possible with locally higher amounts should any storms develop. Tuesday's activity also looks to be more light rain focused on northern MN. With this in mind we have opted to shorten the duration of the Flood Watch to Tuesday morning. An impressively warm day for Sunday has help to melt more of the snow pack. The South Shore saw temperatures climb into the 60s and 70s. And even the North Shore got in on some of the warmth action with highs capping out in the 50s. Modeled snow depth across the South Shore saw a significant decrease losing as much as 8" in just 24 hrs. The North Shore's >24" foot print has also been reduced from the Arrowhead to mainly the high terrain of the North Shore. It's hard to know the extent of how much water this has returned to the soil but across the South Shore it is likely in excess of 2". Taking a trip through some of river gauges does show some response to this added liquid from snow melt. Across the MN sites the river heights have increase 0.5-1.0' NW WI where we saw the more impressive melting has seen rises of 2-3' across several rivers. The Tyler Forks River near Mellen WI is still the primary concern with a Flood Warning already in effect. This river is expected to crest on Tuesday morning just below moderate flood stage and move out of minor flooding Thursday. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for WIZ002>004. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for LSZ140- 141. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ142>147-150. && $$ DISCUSSION...KML AVIATION...Britt MARINE...KML FIRE WEATHER...KML HYDROLOGY...Britt  139 FXUS63 KMQT 140528 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 128 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of showers and thunderstorms lifts into the UP tonight through early Tuesday morning. There is a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms across the stateline border counties, although the chances seem to be decreasing as most convection is now predicted south of us in Wisconsin. - Any heavy rainfall received will exacerbate ongoing flooding concerns. There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 4) for flash flooding with tonight into early Tuesday morning's rainfall event. - A prolonged period of well above freezing temperatures and higher dewpoints will bring increased snowmelt. This, combined with periods of potentially heavy rainfall and thunderstorms, will accelerate river rises and lead to ponding of water in areas with poor drainage. A Flood Watch remains in place for all of Upper Michigan through Wednesday morning && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 155 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Satellite imagery shows low-level cloud cover remaining across most of the U.P. early this afternoon as very weak high pressure ridging moves through the area. The low-level clouds are thanks to the warm temperatures and dewpoints moving over the remaining melting snowpack, which has caused some fog problems since yesterday afternoon. However, with sunshine now starting to show itself in southern Menominee County this afternoon, temperatures down that way are rising into the lower 60s. Thinking the 50s to lower 60s will be seen across the area by late this afternoon, with the warmest temperatures in the south central as the cloud cover slowly gives way to sunshine. That being said, another round of rainfall is expected to move through the U.P. tonight through early Tuesday morning. Thankfully for flooding and severe weather purposes, it looks like most of the rainfall and severe weather potential has shifted south of the area into Wisconsin over the past 24 hours. Thus, lower rainfall amounts are generally expected in comparison to 24 hours, as well as the threat being lowered for severe weather. That being said, we could see some spots get to around half an inch of liquid, with maybe an isolated spot or two getting up to 1 inch if some heavier rainfall hangs out for a couple of hours; the heaviest rainfall is still expected in the south central where flooding was and still is being seen from yesterday to now. As of right now, the latest HREF still brings a 10 to 40% chance of greater than 1" of rainfall tonight into Tuesday morning in the interior west, south central, and east, with the highest chances in the south central and interior west. Should the rainier solutions play out, we may see flooding exacerbated over these areas as US-2 and US-41 continue to have water flowing over them in northern Menominee County. In the low (5% or less) chance that we see severe weather, expect damaging hail followed by severe winds. However, with CAMs bringing convection further south, thinking the un-worked airflow into convection going over the south central tonight will be limited, and thus so should the severe weather threat; the area where the chance for severe weather is greatest is Menominee County. Behind the convection tonight into early Tuesday morning, expect a period of generally drier weather conditions as weak ridging builds in from northern Ontario Tuesday through Wednesday. Hopefully the slightly cooler air from northern Ontario and drier conditions will help to reduce the flooding risk across the area for the rest of this week. That being said, a weak shortwave low moving through the Upper Midwest could bring additional showers and thunderstorms to the U.P. late Tuesday into Tuesday night; whether this shortwave brings precipitation into the U.P. or not will depend on the strength of the ridging from northern Ontario. Another shortwave low moving through the Upper Midwest could bring additional rain showers and thunderstorms to the area around the Thursday time period, although with medium range guidance weakening the strength of this shortwave recently, it may only graze the south as it potentially moves through Lower Michigan; again, it will depend on the strength of the remnant high pressure ridging from northern Ontario. The warmest conditions of the weak move in on Friday as a cold air from northern Canada causes a robust cold front to develop across the central CONUS late this week. With PWATs looking to rapidly increase to around 1 inch in the warm sector via Gulf air ahead of the cold front, the NBM brings up to a 90% chance for temperatures greater than 70 to the western half of the U.P. as dewpoints have a 20 to 50% chance of exceeding 50 degrees (highest chances in the south central and interior west). Combined with intensifying southerly winds, this becomes a recipe for accelerating snowmelt on the snowpack that we have left across the area. Now, where guidance diverges for this week is whether or not a shortwave low lifts through the area before and/or after the arrival of the cold front. Expect higher rain totals if a shortwave rolls through the area before the cold front moves through, as the cold front could bring additional showers and storms across the area into early this weekend. However, if a shortwave low rolls through the area immediately behind the cold front (like the latest deterministic Euro is suggesting), then the western half of the U.P. may be in for a significant wet snowfall event. Therefore, while the confidence is low at this time, we will keep an eye out to see if model guidance continues to converge on a solution. Regardless, there is fairly good agreement that colder temperatures and at the very least light snowfall will be seen over the northwest to west wind snow belts behind the cold front to end the weekend. Expect a transition to more normal temperatures early next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 127 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Widespread IFR/LIFR flight restrictions to persist for duration of TAF period as both fog and low stratus continue to impact TAF sites. Confidence is not high enough to carry mention of VLIFR at this time, but it definitely cannot be ruled out later this morning as overnight cooling and light winds help to reinforce the conditions. && .MARINE... Issued at 212 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Light winds of generally 20 knots or less continue through the rest of the workweek as shortwave lows move through the area and bring showers and storms to Lake Superior occasionally between tonight and Thursday. Weak high pressure ridging moving through Tuesday through Wednesday may keep the lake dry, but confidence is low at this point as the precipitation chances will be dependent on the strength of the ridging. Nevertheless, here are the time periods where thunderstorm activity is possible over Lake Superior: tonight/early Tuesday, and Thursday. That being said, the chance for rain showers and thunderstorms on Thursday remains low as the shortwave currently looks to lift too far to the south to impact Lake Superior. In addition to the winds and rain/storm chances, we may see fog form over Lake Superior a few times throughout the week; indeed, marine dense fog is looking increasingly likely tonight and may warrant a Marine Dense Fog Advisory in the near future. The main pattern shift for the period looks to come late this week through this weekend as a cold front approaches from the central CONUS. Expect increasing airflow from the Gulf ahead of the cold front to intensify winds from the south and southeast Friday, with over a 30% chance (highest over the open waters of the east according to the NBM) of increasing to gales of at least 34 knots by Friday night before the cold front moves through the lake around the Saturday time period. Behind the cold front, as the strong cold air advection improves mixing of the higher winds aloft to the sfc, expect the winds to become northwesterly as gale chances increase up to 50% late in the day through Saturday night. In addition to the winds, some thunderstorms may be seen ahead of and along the cold front late Friday into Saturday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 304 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 In response to the ongoing snowmelt and heavy rainfall that occurred yesterday, river rises and flooding of low-lying areas are expected/are occurring across Upper Michigan, particularly over the south central where rainfall up to 4 inches fell, causing inundation over several roadways (including US-2/US-41) even through today. While much of the area near Wisconsin lost the entirety of their snowpack yesterday through last night, several inches to over a foot(!) of SWE remains over the Keweenaw and higher elevations of the north central U.P., as well as portions of the eastern U.P. upslope from Lake Superior over the northwest wind belts. Thus, while flooding concerns look to start dwindling over the areas near Wisconsin after Tuesday, expect continued snowmelt over the remaining areas to continue river rises over those areas with or downbasin from an area with notable snowpack remaining. Because of this and the rainfall chances expected through the rest of this week (including tonight, which I will touch on in the next paragraph), river flooding to bankfull conditions are being seen across several rivers across Upper Michigan. Starting with the Black River near Bessemer, the quick loss of snowpack with the rainfall yesterday has created Minor Flooding conditions which are forecasted to continue until Tuesday; bankfull conditions for the Black River look to continue until Tuesday night. Moving over to the Sturgeon River at Alston, Minor Flooding is currently being realized; with plenty of snowpack left to melt, expect the river levels to slowly rise the rest of this week into early this weekend. The high river levels at Alston and high flow at Prickett Dam may also bring elevated river levels to Chassell later this week; we will continue to monitor the local observations over there and issue products accordingly should bankfull and/or floodstage be achieved along the Sturgeon River at Chassell. Moving along to the Paint River at Crystal Falls, Moderate Flooding is expected starting late Tuesday as we move into Minor Flood Stage this evening. While not quite looking to get into Major Flood Stage, river heights are currently expected to get up to 8.5", which does start to approach the River Flood of Record. Moving into the Michigamme River basin, some bankfull conditions to Minor River Flooding looks possible at Bangston Bridge and Witch Lake late this week as the snowmelt in the basin progressively melts and increases flows with time. As for the Ford River, we are currently flirting with bankfull conditions this afternoon and could go over tonight given the chances for rainfall (some potentially heavy at times). Moving over to the Escanaba River, bankfull to Minor River Flood conditions are expected over the Middle Branch at Humboldt and the Eastern Branch at Gwinn. Given the recent call with one of the dam operators in Escanaba about the high flows, will continue to keep an eye on the snowmelt in the north central as rainfall moving through tonight could help to push- up cfs to hazardous levels. As for the Sturgeon River (Delta County) at Nahma Junction, the recent heavy rainfall and snowmelt has caused river levels to exceed bankfull; I'd be shocked if the river doesn't go into Minor Flood Stage shortly as even the HEFS shows the river at about 100% for getting into Minor Flood Stage. As for the Manistique River, the increasing snowmelt and heavy rainfall recently (and potentially tonight) could bring above bankfull river levels, potentially causing ponding of water and inundation in low- lying areas near the river Tuesday and beyond; a Flood Advisory may need to be issued for this river's area of influence in the future. One more thing worth mentioning: while the flooding threat looks to progressively decrease in the areas near Wisconsin this week, with model guidance suggesting another round of rain showers and thunderstorms moving (mainly) through the south central tonight into early Tuesday morning, flooding concerns may be significantly increased as the area is still inundated from the previous rainfall and snowmelt. As of now, the south central has up to a 40% chance of receiving over an inch of liquid tonight. With the rainfall potentially being a torrential downpour at times, flooding along the US-2/US-41 corridor between Iron Mountain and Escanaba may worsen; additional roadways and areas may be inundated as the water within in the low-lying areas increases in height. Therefore, a Flood Warning may need to be re-issued for the southeastern Dickinson, northern Menominee, and western Delta county area once again this evening as the rain showers and thunderstorms begin to make there way into the U.P. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for MIZ001>007-009>014- 084-085. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for LMZ248-250. && $$ DISCUSSION...TAP AVIATION...TDUD MARINE...TAP HYDROLOGY...  481 FXUS62 KMFL 140529 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 129 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 125 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Reduced visibilities and air quality will be possible across portions of the Naples metro due to smoke from the Newman Fire. - Dangerous rip currents will continue at all east coast beaches of South Florida through at least Wednesday evening. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 125 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The deep-layer ridging pattern continues to maintain its strength and dominance through the middle of this week. With a drier air mass also remaining in place, there are no changes from the last couple of days in terms as we will see ongoing tranquil weather across the region. Only slight changes will be slowly rising temperatures each day and winds finally weakening as the pressure gradient begins to relax. Daytime high temperatures will continue to reach the low 80s for the east coast metro and upper 80s to near 90 for the Gulf coast region as the easterly regime favors warmer temps for the Gulf region during the day and cooler at night. One other item to monitor is the active Newman Wildfire in Collier County. The quiet weather pattern and breezy winds will allow for smoke to continue to disperse rather quickly to the point where it's generally uncontrollable. The easterly winds will push smoke towards the Gulf shore and other areas around there. As a result of this, local air quality issues are likely and can impact sensitive groups as firefighters continue to work on mitigating the fire. Additionally, smoke can contribute to lower visibilities on roadways and making driving unsafe in certain areas. Caution is advised when driving on the roadways until the fire is controlled, and vulnerable populations should consider limiting time outdoors. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 125 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Long range ensembles show a shortwave trough advecting across the central U.S. for the end of this week and the shortwave attempts to break down the deep-layer ridge over the Southeast U.S. However, with the ridge being highly amplified, it will not break down entirely and rather just 'flatten' out to an extent. As the shortwave trough then curves off northwards, upper level ridging re- amplifies in conjunction with a deep-layer trough forming over the Great Lakes region this weekend. This trough is expected to be strong enough to the point where it forces a frontal boundary and some moisture into northern Florida and weakens the ridging pattern more substantially. However, ensembles still keep 500mb heights around the 75th percentile for this date range (April 18-20), hinting that the high pressure has a good chance to hold onto its control of the local weather. If this trend holds firm, mostly dry weather would be expected to continue minus some isolated shower activity occurring as a result of increased daytime high temperatures under the ridge pattern and an increase in moisture availability. As the frontal boundary washes out after it enters northern Florida, PWATs may rise back to climatological norms over the weekend and into next week (1.2-1.4") which can support some weak shower activity even under a high pressure pattern, particularly as a result of sea breeze circulations. Overall, most ensemble members and clusters at this time favor a drier solution for this weekend and into early next week, and even the wetter solutions do not favor a highly active period with total QPF for each 24-hour period being below 0.5". As a result, the latest forecast keeps conditions predominantly dry with only slight chances for some shower activity at the beginning of next week. High temperatures will continue to rise each day through the end of the week and into this weekend underneath this large ridging pattern as we see highs rise to the mid to upper 80s along the east coast metro, upper 80s to low 90s for the Gulf coast, and low to mid 90s over the interior by Friday and continuing into the weekend. Overnight lows are expected to range each night from the low 60s for the Gulf coast, interior, and lake regions to the upper 60s and low 70s for the east coast metro. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 125 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR and breezy easterly flow continues for the entire 06Z TAF period at all east coast terminals. Smoke from the Newman Fire in western Collier may result in reduced CIGs/VIS at KAPF at times. && .MARINE... Issued at 125 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Winds decrease back to a moderate breeze beginning today, which is expected to last into the end of the week. Cautionary conditions are still expected with winds in the range of 15-20 kts, but advisory criteria is expected to be avoided. Seas of 4-6 feet expected in the local Atlantic waters and 2 feet or less in the Gulf waters. && .BEACHES... Issued at 125 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A high risk for rip currents continues through the middle of this week and may persist into the end of the week as brisk onshore flow continues. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 81 69 81 69 / 10 0 0 0 West Kendall 83 65 83 65 / 10 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 82 68 82 69 / 10 0 0 0 Homestead 82 69 81 69 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 79 69 79 69 / 10 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 79 69 80 69 / 10 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 83 69 84 69 / 10 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 79 67 80 68 / 10 0 0 0 Boca Raton 79 69 79 69 / 10 0 0 0 Naples 87 64 86 65 / 0 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172-173. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ630-650- 651-670-671. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Redman LONG TERM....Redman AVIATION...Redman  484 FXAK67 PAJK 140529 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 929 PM AKDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .UPDATE...Update to the Aviation Section to include the 06z TAFs. && .PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 433 PM AKDT Mon Apr 13... SYNOPSIS... - Tuesday is expected to see a clearing from north to south, with increased chances of sun and warmer temperatures. - Showers return late on Wednesday and into Thursday. SHORT TERM... A broad area of low pressure in the Gulf is bringing with it rain and snow showers across SE AK, driven by continuing onshore flow and conditional instability. 850 mb temperatures are between -6C and -8C, and 1000 to 850 mb thickness values of 1285-1290 decameters would normally indicate the potential for accumulating snow under these conditions. However, diurnal heating has proven sufficient to hold most of the accumulations at bay, with the bulk of the snow melting almost as quickly as it can falls in areas under heavier bands of showers. Overnight, the low will begin to traverse SE and showers will diminish across the northern half of the area. This will set the stage for fog development for areas north of Sitka. Showers continuing across the southern panhandle could drop minor snow accumulations of less than an inch during the same timeframe as diurnal heating subsides. Tuesday will see showers dwindle across the remainder of the area and drier weather take hold. Some locations will likely climb into the 50s. Tuesday night will see returning chances of fog, this time reaching further into the southern panhandle, but drier weather will continue through most of Wednesday until a shortwave manages to race over the axis of the ridge and into SE AK Wednesday night. LONG TERM...The low impacting the southern panhandle Tuesday will continue to dip south into Wednesday, allowing for skies over the rest of the panhandle to clear out. A broad upper level ridge develops, with the associated surface level ridging positioned to continue onshore flow into the panhandle. Mid level moisture looks to move into the northern panhandle with a shortwave trough on Wednesday night, allowing for light snow in Yakutat and parts of the far northern panhandle Thursday morning. Snow is not really expected to stick for these locations as temperatures remain around freezing, though higher elevation areas and the Klondike and Haines Highways may see up to an inch. This precipitation will be a mix or all rain for the rest of the northern and central panhandle Wednesday, moving into parts of the southern panhandle through Wednesday night into Thursday. Showers are expected to continue until Thursday night, when a more organized front moves into the panhandle from northwest to southeast. This will bring widespread precipitation to the panhandle Friday into Saturday, though QPF remains on the lower side. Again, Yakutat and the northern highways may see snow with this front, though daytime temperatures should only allow for minimal, if any, accumulation. Precipitation is expected to taper down through Saturday, though it may not completely stop until Sunday. The only real wind issue is expected near the typical hot spots from Thursday into Friday as the front moves inland, with Lynn Canal, southern Stephens Passage near Five Finger Lighthouse, and around Point Couverden potentially seeing small craft advisories through this period. AVIATION.../Until 06z Wednesday/...Showers across the panhandle continue to bring MVFR down to IFR conditions this evening with rain and snow. These showers have been starting to end from north to south and will continue to diminish through the overnight hours into Tuesday. With the clearing skies, there in an increasing potential for some fog development, especially across the northern panhandle should winds continue to diminish. Farther south, the showers are expected to persist into the morning hours as the low bringing these showers to the area starts to work to the south. With the showers, AAWU forecasts for icing show a broad area for potential icing from FL040 to FL100. This area of icing is expected to decrease in size as over the southern panhandle going into tomorrow morning. MARINE... Outer Coastal Waters: As a low treks off to the south, winds will turn out of the NW through Monday night. Anticipate winds will strengthen to fresh to strong breezes across the outer coastal waters, with the strongest winds south of Kruzof Island. Waveheights of 5 to 7 ft are expected for areas north of Kruzof, while waveheights of 6 to 9 ft are expected for areas south. Through Wednesday, winds will shift out of the W before becoming SW on Thursday. SW swell with wave periods of 7 to 10 seconds. Inner Channels: Winds in the inner channels remain out of the south through the evening hours on Monday, with fresh to strong breezes, especially for Lynn Canal and Stephen's Passage. As a low tracks south through the night, winds weaken and eventually flip out of the North. Winds will strengthen again to fresh breeze - although this time out of the north - through the day on Tuesday. Winds will flip back out of the S on Thursday as the pressure gradient once more flips. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-641>644-661>664-671. && $$ SHORT TERM...GFS LONG TERM...ZTK AVIATION...SF MARINE...GFS Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau  764 FXUS61 KCTP 140531 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 131 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Increased rain chances and thunder probs especially along US-322/I-80 corridor based on latest radar trends and hires model/ensemble guidance && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Bullish signal for rounds of showers and t-storms near the US-322/I-80 corridor into late tonight 2) Another impressive warm up begins today and continues through the week; near- record warmth on tap for Wednesday and Thursday. 3) Several periods of showers and thunderstorms expected during the upcoming week, with the greatest amount of rainfall likely occurring across northern and western PA. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Bullish signal for rounds of showers and t-storms near US-322/I-80 corridor into late tonight Bullish signal via newest CAMS is confirmed by ongoing radar trends showing a notable uptick on showers and storms tracking WNW-ESE near US-322/I-80 corridor along what appears to be a diffuse llvl convergence or outflow boundary. Despite sunset/time of day, temps remain quite mild for this time of year and storm intensities have been neutral to positive (stronger) on the margin with even some small scale bowing type features/structures. Odds continue to favor sub severe storms capable of locally strong max wind gusts ~40kt. ---------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 2: Warm up begins today and continues through the week; near-record warmth on tap for Wednesday and Thursday. LLVL warm advection kicks in today with a moderately gusty southerly flow ushering in a prolonged period of much warmer than normal temperatures through the upcoming week. On the large-scale, our ensemble prediction systems are in good agreement showing a mean upper-level trough across the western CONUS, with downstream upper ridging taking hold from the Gulf states up the eastern seaboard. This will bring a notable warming trend, with daily highs ranging from the 70s-mid 80s across central PA from Tuesday onward. The latest forecast brings near-record temperatures across the region Wednesday morning through Friday morning, with lows both Wednesday and Thursday morning forecast to be warmer than our average highs this time of year (or an incredible 25 to 30 deg F above normal). Highs in the 70s and 80s will accompany lows in the 50s and 60s. Dewpoints will start to approach the 60F mark, so it will feel a bit humid but not overly uncomfortable. ---------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 3: Several periods of showers and thunderstorms expected during the upcoming week, especially in the north and west. In general for the workweek ahead, the storm track will run from SW to NE across the Great Lakes, with several waves of low pressure drifting into Ontario, CA. A frontal boundary will set up generally west to east across New York and keep unsettled weather in place across northwest PA in particular. LLJ will lift across far northern PA western NY this morning, keeping the main focus for any significant convection generally north/west of the region today. For Tuesday, SPC has expanded the MRGL Risk for SVR TSRA over much of the Northern Half of PA for the afternoon and evening as a 35 to 40 kt WSW LLVL wind max advects across that part of the state during peak heating with broad upper level diffluence noted in the westerly flow AOA 500 mb on the southerly flank of an upper level jet max. If you have outdoor plans this week, continue to monitor the forecast - no need to cancel anything yet! The probability for showers/storms will be highest in northwest PA. Locations that have been wet lately will continue to see more rain, while drought- stricken locations across the southeast part of our CWA will see less rainfall. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The best chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms for the rest of the night will be at BFD, with the bulk of the activity expected to remain north of UNV and west of IPT. VFR conditions are favored at all TAF sites through 12Z this morning, but there is a low chance of MVFR ceilings at BFD and JST. The better chance for MVFR ceilings at BFD will come after 12Z. The next round of showers and thunderstorms is expected for the afternoon and evening. PROB30s for -SHRA/-TSRA have been included at all TAF sites to highlight this threat. There is still some uncertainty regarding the timing and coverage of these storms, so this part of the forecast will need to be refined with upcoming TAF issuances. These storms will be capable of producing strong wind gusts, potentially in excess of 40 knots. Winds outside of thunderstorms will be out of the west-southwest at 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 20 to 25 knots likely. Another round of showers and storms appears likely to move into the region from the northwest after 06Z Wednesday. Surface winds will decrease to less than 10 knots after sunset, but winds around 2000 feet will strengthen to around 40 knots over southwestern PA. This will bring a period of LLWS to JST and AOO. Outlook... Wed-Thu...VFR most of the time, but brief restrictions possible in hit and miss showers and thunderstorms, mainly across the north and west. Fri...Restrictions possible early, then improving to VFR in the afternoon. Sat...Restrictions in SHRA early, drier conditions late. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl/Banghoff DISCUSSION...Steinbugl/Banghoff AVIATION...Bauco  221 FXUS63 KBIS 140531 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1231 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Medium to high chances for showers through tonight. - Mainly dry and warmer Tuesday and Wednesday. - Wide range in temperatures from northwest to southeast Thursday as a cold front pushes into the state. - Significant cool down for the end of the week, with medium chances for rain and snow. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1230 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Showers continue across portions of the forecast area at the time of this mid night update. While thunder has generally ended, a very short lived thunderstorm did develop in the north James River Valley in the past half hour. An interrogation of the SPC mesoanalysis page indicates that a bubble of weak instability was previously found over this area, though should continue to continue to exit to the northeast out of our area over the next hour or so. Will continue to monitor model trends, but not really expecting much if any more thunder at this point. Overall, the forecast remains on track. UPDATE Issued at 1002 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 At 930 PM CDT, the most concentrated and heaviest shower activity was located over central North Dakota, directly downstream of a 700 mb vort max. A few thunderstorms have been embedded in this activity at times, but no lightning has been observed in the last half hour. With SPC mesoanalysis showing only around 100 J/kg MUCAPE, the risk of thunderstorms appears to be winding down. Another arc of more persistent rain tied to a 500 mb low was pivoting over southwest North Dakota, and the broader area encompassing the two lies under the left exit region of a 300 mb level jet. The mid to upper level forcing will glide northeastward through the night, carrying the rain with it. Latest model guidance continues to show rain could mix with or change over to snow in the Turtle Mountains and Devils Lake Basin areas early Tuesday morning, with little to impacts expected within our forecast area. UPDATE Issued at 702 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 The risk for a severe thunderstorm in southwest North Dakota has greatly diminished as the stronger updrafts in northwest South Dakota have taken on a direct eastward trajectory. Most of south central North Dakota should also be in the clear from severe storms, but will still need to monitor the South Dakota convection as it could reach a kinematic environment that could spawn an elevated left-moving supercell later this evening. But that would be a reasonable worst-case scenario, low probability outcome. Isolated non-severe thunderstorms will remain possible across southwest and south central North Dakota through the evening. The fog forecast for this evening into Tuesday morning could prove to be challenging. Dense fog had been plaguing parts of southwest North Dakota for several hours this afternoon, but is now finally starting to lift with the arrival of more persistent rainfall. HRRR/RAP guidance would indicate that fog could develop outside of rain showers across much of western and central North Dakota later tonight. Will leave a patchy fog mention over much of the area and refine later as needed. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 158 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Chances for showers and thunderstorms through tonight, with a low potential for a few strong to marginally severe storms far south late this afternoon and this evening. Drying out Tuesday, warm Wednesday, then a significant cooldown late in the workweek and into the weekend. Latest satellite imagery and upper level analysis shows upper level circulation along the MT/ID border with additional shortwave energy lifting from WY into southeast MT. Showers and scattered thunderstorms have been on the increase over Northeast WY into southeast MT over the past hour or so. This has resulted in steep low and mid-level lapse rates over this area. Through the remainder of the afternoon as the shortwave propagates east northeast, expect this environment to work into the western Dakotas. SPC has issued a MCD for portions of northwest SD into southeast MT and northeast WY. The problem is, the farther north and east you go, the more stable the environment. We expect convection, some strong, will approach southwest ND this afternoon. The main question is how far can it progress into the forecast area, characterized by a more stable lower level environment, before dissipating. The main threats with the high based convection will be strong wind gusts to 60 mph. Better chances will remain south of the border, but an isolated strong to marginally severe storm can not be ruled out late this afternoon through the evening along the South Dakota border in the southwest and south central. As we then go through the evening and overnight as the mid-upper level circulation tracks from far southwest ND through east central ND. This will support scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms tracking through the forecast area tonight. Late tonight, as the precipitation lifts into northeast ND, there it the potential for a bit of mixed precip around the Turtle Mountains. At this time the warm temperatures should inhibit any significant snow accumulation, but a little accumulation on grassy surfaces can not be ruled out. For the most part warming Tuesday and Wednesday with mostly dry conditions. Our given NBM guidance gave us several hours of splotchy slight chance pops on Tuesday over western ND. There does appear to be a small potential for an afternoon shower or possible thunderstorm. we opted to include a broad brush slight chance pops over the west Tuesday afternoon. It's possible that as we go into the evening, we could see slight chances propagate into central ND. For now we will limit the slight chance pops to mainly along and west of the Highway 83 corridor, Tuesday afternoon. Wednesday looks to be warm and mild. We could see afternoon humidities drop into the 20-25 percent range over southwest ND but winds look to be rather light out of the southwest Wednesday afternoon. In the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe an upper level low in the eastern Pacific drops south and moves onto the Pacific Northwest coast by Thursday. This will result in surface cyclogenesis in the lee of the northern and central Rockies and by Thursday the surface low ejects onto the Plains. At this time it looks like the energy in this upper trough splits with a piece tracking north of the forecast and another tracking well south of the area. Current temperature guidance on Thursday suggest a 30 degree or so difference in temperatures between the far north (mid to upper 40s) and the southern James River Valley (Mid to upper 70s). Should we reach the mid 70s across the south central on Thursday, we could see a period low humidities, possibly into the low to mid 20s in the far south central east into the southern JRV. Winds should not be an too strong during this timeframe. As the upper level trough swings through the northern Plains we will see a period of precipitation, most likely rain initially, then changing to snow. With the split flow pattern there remains quite a bit of uncertainty as to how much qpf we see. Right now, the NBM 24 hour probability of a quarter inch of liquid from Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon remains low across all of western and central ND. Whether that falls as rain, snow or a mix, impacts from qpf amounts look to be low. There will be a period of strong wind with this system, followed by much colder temperatures late in the workweek and into at least the first half of the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1230 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Variable ceilings can be found across western and central North Dakota to begin the 06Z TAF period. While low stratus generally continues to promote IFR to LIFR ceilings at most terminals, areas of showers moving across the area have promoted improvements to MVFR to even VFR ceilings on their onset at any given TAF site. As showers move off to the northeast overnight, a rapid return to lower ceilings can be anticipated, with some patchy fog possible. A general improvement of ceilings back to VFR conditions are is expected from west to east late this morning through early this afternoon. Winds are expected to remain around 10 kts or less through much of the period, turning out of the east tonight to the west through this morning and afternoon, then out of the south through this evening and the end of the TAF period. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Adam/Hollan DISCUSSION...TWH AVIATION...Adam  753 FXUS62 KMHX 140531 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 131 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Dropped SCA for the northern waters and sounds. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Above to well above normal temperatures will prevail through the entire week with the potential for record breaking temperatures Tuesday through Saturday. 2) Worsening drought and fire weather conditions anticipated over much of the upcoming week, with the next meaningful chance of rain not until Sunday && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Persistent ridging aloft combined with a warm, southwest flow pattern and warm to anomalously warm low-level thicknesses is expected to support above to well above normal temperatures for the entire week. Some locations may reach, or exceed, record highs (please see the CLIMATE section below for additional information). Based on the latest guidance, the warmest days are expected to be Wednesday, Thursday, and Saturday. On those days, highs are expected to top out in the 90s inland, and 70s to near 80 along the coast. For reference, mid-April highs typically average out to be in the upper 60s along the coast and mid 70s inland. Based on the latest forecast, inland highs should solidly reach 10-20 degrees above normal. The forecast is currently higher than MOS guidance, as we are operating under the belief that an anomalous event like this (EFI values approaching 1.00 and SoT near 1) isn't properly represented by MOS guidance. The forecast is also currently higher than the deterministic NBM, as the raw NBM MaxTs are running at the 10-25 percentile. Summertime warmth with spring humidity means it won't feel as hot as it could with summertime humidity. Even so, the heat risk is forecast to reach moderate impact levels this week. This means impacts will be most prevalent for those without adequate cooling or hydration. A break in the warmth looks to be on the horizon as a cold front is now forecast to move through the area on Sunday, with cooler air arriving early next week. KEY MESSAGE 2...Worsening drought conditions are likely through the foreseeable future with no rain in the forecast through Saturday. The forecast area remains in a Severe Drought (D2), with some pockets of Extreme Drought (D3) emerging over the northern NC coastal plain. Precipitation deficits over the last 60 days range from 3-6 inches, which will only increase in the upcoming rain-free week. Growing vegetation and leaf out will only increase the strain on ground water in the coming weeks. While the forecast currently has conditions not meeting criteria for fire danger statements, the very dry conditions will continue to bring an elevated threat for wildfires. It is also worth noting that breezy afternoon/evening winds will be paired with relative humidities in the 30-40% range. Again, this is above Fire Danger Statement criteria, but given the increased sensitivities, it is worth a mention. The NCFS continues a statewide burn ban until further notice. Late in the weekend, guidance is showing a strong signal for a cold front passage (Sunday into Monday). This front carries a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions ongoing across area terminals as high pressure sits over the western Atlantic and extends over much of the southeastern CONUS. Steady southwesterly winds are expected to remain elevated tonight, which is keeping NBM probs for fog and stratus depressed to 10% or less. Still, like last night, if areas decouple low-level moisture is sufficient enough to support some patchy shallow fog - most likely times between 10-12z. Typical warm season pattern tomorrow with increasing southwesterly flow and diurnal cumulus fields developing by midday. Sea breeze will cross late afternoon into early evening ushering a brief period of gusty southerly winds up to 20 kt at times. Outlook: Pred VFR conditions expected through the period with a more summertime pattern persisting through the week. Stronger winds likely in the coming days with tightening thermal gradient, most likely felt in the afternoons and evenings. && .MARINE... Latest obs show SW winds 10-20 kt and seas 2-4 ft. A regime more typical of summer is expected across area waters this week. Within this flow, there will be a diurnal max in winds each afternoon and evening thanks to a strengthening thermal gradient. During this time, occasional gusts to 25kt will be possible, especially for waters near NOBX. A similar scenario is possible each day this week, with brief small craft conditions in the vicinity of NOBX. Seas of 2-5 ft will be common through much of the upcoming week for the ENC coastal waters. Outlook: The southwest flow pattern is expected to last into Saturday. On Sunday, a cold front is forecast to move through with a wind shift and the potential for scattered thunderstorms. && .CLIMATE... Record High temps for 4/14 (Tuesday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 89/1948 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 80/1994 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 93/1922 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 80/1996 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 99/1930 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 88/1977 (NCA ASOS) Record High temps for 4/15 (Wednesday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 94/1972 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 84/1922 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 96/1922 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 80/1964 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 92/1941 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 93/2006 (NCA ASOS) Record High temps for 4/16 (Thursday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 92/1972 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 78/1994 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 92/1972 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 82/2006 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 92/2006 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 91/1972 (NCA ASOS) Record High temps for 4/17 (Friday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 91/1976 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 83/2012 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 92/1972 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 82/1976 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 91/1972 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 91/2006 (NCA ASOS) && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 7 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ196-204-205. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RM/RJ AVIATION...MS MARINE...RM/CQD/RJ  157 FXUS64 KJAN 140531 AAC AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 1231 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Limited fire danger conditions will continue into today. - Drought conditions continue to increase across the region due to prolonged dry weather. && .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 855 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Forecast remains on track tonight, with mid clouds found throughout central portions of the CWA. Later on, low lying stratus is set to migrate in the south east quadrant of the CWA causing some minor impacts to travel and aviation./OAJ/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 110 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Tonight through Sunday...The main impacts during this forecast period will come Tuesday in the form of some potential for patchy dense fog across namely Southeast Mississippi early in the morning and some continued "limited" fire weather concerns from late morning through the afternoon, Thursday as a disturbance moves through the Mid-South, and over the weekend as a frontal boundary is advertised to push through the CWA. Otherwise, strong high pressure aloft will continue to meander over the central and eastern Gulf of America. This, while high pressure at the surface centered off the coast of the Carolinas, remains wedged into the Deep South from the east. The combination of the two will continue to promote overall quiet conditions and above normal warmth across the forecast area through much of this forecast period. On Tuesday, with increased moisture, mild conditions, and light to calm winds early in the morning, some patchy dense fog is possible across mainly Southeast Mississippi. This will quickly begin dissipating after sunrise. Come late morning and afternoon, some fire weather concerns will persist across the area given the dry fuels from the ongoing drought and breezy southerly winds. Afternoon minimum relative humidity values will again mix into the 35-45% range, especially across eastern portions of the area where they'll hover more in the 35-40% range. Despite the increased humidity levels and greening vegetation, this "limited" fire danger threat for Tuesday will again primarily be driven by the aforementioned breezy winds and very dry soil conditions. Just the combination of these two could lead to some increase in wild fires across the area and the potential for even monitored open burning to potentially get out of hand. There will be a slight increase in rain chances across northern portions of the forecast area on Thursday. While the remainder of the CWA will remain dry, a shortwave lifting northeast across the Mid-South region could spark some isolated showers and storms across mainly the Highway 82 corridor during peak heating hours Thursday afternoon. Any convection that develops during this time, will quickly dissipate in the early evening as day time heating wanes. Finally, a better chance for showers and isolated storms currently exists across the entire forecast area Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. This is as a result of a stronger shortwave that's advertised to push a cold front east into and through the region late Saturday afternoon into early Sunday. While any rain chances are much appreciated and welcomed, unfortunately this front will be in the process of weakening as forcing lifts out to the northeast. This looks to keep the better rain chances during this timeframe across western and northern portions of the forecast area. Therefore, the upcoming weekend is by no means looking to be a washout. However, some relief from the above normal warmth and humid conditions is being advertised for the forecast area on Sunday. /19/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions prevail early this morning. Another round of fog or low stratus is possible across southeast MS mainly around daybreak, with categorical reductions possible. VFR conditions should return by mid-morning. Otherwise, southerly winds may be gusty at times during the daylight hours. Another round of fog or low clouds is possible Wed morning. /DL/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 85 61 85 63 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 85 57 85 61 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 86 61 86 64 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 85 59 86 62 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 86 61 84 64 / 0 0 10 0 Greenville 86 65 86 66 / 0 0 0 10 Greenwood 87 63 86 65 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ OAJ/19/DL  336 FXUS61 KAKQ 140532 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 132 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the forecast at this time. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Well above-normal temperatures this week, with record to near- record temperatures possible by midweek. 2) Continued dry with fire weather concerns expected for much of the week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 205 PM EDT Monday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Well above-normal temperatures this week, with record to near- record temperatures possible by midweek. Surface high offshore has settled offshore of the northeast coast, and will build south into the western Atlantic through midweek. The resulting persistent return flow will lock in a very warm, dry SSW flow regime for much of the week ahead. This Bermuda High set-up, more typical of early to mid summer, will allow for temperatures to increase to well above normal through the next several days. Highs tomorrow climb into the upper 80s to near 90F tomorrow, with low 90s (to isolated mid 90s) Wednesday into the upcoming weekend. Slightly cooler upper 80s across the Eastern Shore and near the coast through the week. These temperatures are likely to challenge record high temperatures across the area, with the current records at our long-term climate sites noted in the climate section below. With the strong high firmly in place across the area through at least the end of the week, any fronts approaching the region will wash out before reaching our area. Global model ensembles continue to suggest that a stronger front drops across the area late in the upcoming weekend, with at least a slight chance of rain in its wake. Meanwhile, building east coast trough will finally serve to break the heat ridge early next week. KEY MESSAGE 2...Continued dry with fire weather concerns expected for much of the week. With high pressure dominating our weather pattern, and no appreciable precipitation expected through the end of the week, fire weather concerns will remain an issue to monitor for much of the week ahead. After collaboration with state forestry officials and surrounding weather offices, will not be issuing any further Increased Fire Statements at this time. While breezy return flow continues tomorrow, winds/gusts are not quite as high tomorrow. That said, RH values are, and will continue to be dry, averaging 25-30% inland, 30-35% closer to the coast. Overall though, fire wx conditions remain a bit above critical fire wx thresholds tomorrow through midweek. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 130 AM EDT Tuesday... High pressure offshore of the region will favor VFR conditions through the TAF period and beyond. Skies will be mostly clear outside of high clouds through the period. FEW cumulus could develop in the aftn. Winds remain around 10 kt this morning. Gusty SW winds (to ~20 kt) return during the late morning- afternoon. Outlook: VFR and dry conditions are expected to prevail through Saturday. S-SW winds also prevail throughout the forecast period, as high pressure settles over the western Atlantic. && .MARINE... As of 225 PM EDT Monday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories remain in effect across the upper rivers, Chesapeake Bay, and northern coastal waters this afternoon. - A period of elevated southwest winds is possible Thursday night. High pressure remains offshore through the week as a ridge aloft builds over the Eastern CONUS. As such, winds remain predominantly SW through the remainder of the week around 10-15 kt. However, a period of stronger SW winds remains ongoing this afternoon with winds of 15-20 kt and gusts up to 25 kt (lower across the southern coastal waters and Currituck Sound). As such, SCAs have been extended until 6 PM across the Ches Bay and upper rivers. SCAs remain in effect until 4 AM Tue across the northern coastal waters due to a combination of 4-5 ft seas and gusts up to 25 kt. Generally sub-SCA conditions are expected from Tue through Thu outside of occasional periods of elevated winds each evening. Another period of SCA conditions is possible Thu evening/Thu night due to elevated SW winds, however, this surge appears marginal at this time. Otherwise, the next best chance for SCA conditions isn't until Sun-Mon as a cold front moves through the region. Waves and seas were 2-3 ft and 3-5 ft respectively this afternoon. Waves and seas subside to 1-2 ft and 2-4 ft respectively later tonight, remaining generally below SCA criteria through late week outside of a brief period of 4-5 ft seas across the northern coastal waters on Thu night. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temps for 4/13 - 4/16 Record Record Record Record High/Year High/Year High/Year High/Year Location 4/13 4/14 4/15 4/16 -------- ---- ----- ------ ------ Richmond 91 (1977) 90 (1977) 92 (1941) 93 (1976) Norfolk 88 (1977) 90 (1941) 90 (2024) 91 (1976) Salisbury 87 (2023) 87 (1941) 87 (1941) 89 (1976) Eliz. City 90 (1948) 90 (1941) 91 (1941) 90 (1941) Record High Min Temps for 4/13 - 4/16 Record Record Record Record High High High High Min T/Year Min T/Year Min T/Year Min T/Year Location 4/13 4/14 4/15 4/16 -------- ---- ----- ------ ------ Richmond 64 (1994) 65 (1899) 64 (2018) 64 (1912) Norfolk 65 (1994) 68 (2019) 68 (1941) 66 (2017) Salisbury 62 (2019) 65 (1945) 64 (2002) 63 (2017) Eliz. City 67 (2019) 68 (2019) 68 (1974) 68 (1994) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MAM/NB AVIATION...ERI/SW MARINE...ERI/RMM CLIMATE...MAM  087 FXUS63 KGRR 140532 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 132 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe thunderstorm and flood potential tonight and late Tuesday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 302 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 - Severe thunderstorm and flood potential tonight and late Tuesday This evening, multiple clusters of storms are favored to develop across Wisconsin, northern Illinois, and Lower Michigan, with low- mid level wind fields and low-level warm/moist advection increasing ahead of a shortwave trough. HREF mean MUCAPE will be around 1000-1500 J/kg with effective bulk shear around 40 knots. Model sounding thermodynamic and kinematic profiles are favorable for some hail- producing cells and scattered swaths of damaging winds especially in the first half of the night, including in southwest Michigan after 6 PM if the storms currently in Illinois maintain strength and organization. Tornado potential is relatively low but not zero, as there could be some curvature in the low-level hodographs and 0-3 km shear near 30 knots, but surface stabilization by later in the evening may tend to be the limiting factor. Tuesday evening, another wave of convection is favored with supercells, clusters, and/or lines in a more potent thermodynamic and kinematic environment. Mean HREF MUCAPE is between 1500-2500 J/kg and curved low-level hodographs and longer upper-level tails (respectable low-level and deep-layer shear) are expected. HREF Significant Tornado Parameter mean is about 2-3 during south of M-46 during the evening before the surface begins stabilizing a couple hours after sunset. Diffuse mesoscale warm-frontogenesis at the surface may also be occurring over the area during the evening. Hail and wind are both expected to be primary hazards. For information on the increasing flood threat, see the Hydrology section below. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 132 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Overall and generally, things remain on track as compared to the forecast from 6 hours ago. The main difference is that the showers and storms are further north than previously expected. There have been a few-sct showers and isolated storms in between the terminals. The widespread activity remains well north of the terminals, but will eventually make its way down this south. It looks like the line of storms over Wisconsin will approach KMKG around 08z or so, and press SE thereafter. the majority of sites will see MVFR to LIFR conditions with the visibilities/ceilings with the showers/storms. Conditions will be slow to improve this morning/afternoon after the showers. VFR conditions are likely to return later this afternoon. We will see showers and storms redevelop then toward 23-01z as the next wave of low pressure moves through. We have gone with predominate showers/storms after 23-01z at all sites with LIFR conditions expected. && .MARINE... Issued at 302 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Areas of dense fog in the nearshore will likely persist into tonight and may or may not dissipate after thunderstorms pass through tonight. After a slight lull this evening, hazardous winds and waves for small craft are expected through Tuesday. Thunderstorms, possibly severe thunderstorms with hail and wind, are possible over Lake Michigan this evening/tonight and Tuesday evening/night. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 302 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 The further north you go in the Lower Peninsula, the more significant the flooding situation becomes. Around an inch of rain fell across much of the area along and north of the Muskegon River watershed over the weekend, with a much heavier swath of 2-4 inches across the Manistee River watershed and the headwaters portions of the Muskegon basin. Coming on the heels of one of the wettest springs on record so far, and in the midst of a significantly active (and wet) ongoing weather pattern, the water that's already on the ground is going to produce renewed flooding on the Muskegon River (and many others rivers further north as well). With another 2-3" of rain over the next few days in the Muskegon, we're now expecting the most significant flood on the Muskegon River since the flood of 2018. If the next few days of rains overperform (which is entirely possible), the forecasted crests will go even higher. If you live near the Muskegon river, now is the time to prepare for significant flooding. Meanwhile, further south, conditions in the Grand River basin are in slightly better shape, although water is still high from all of the recent rains. We've finally dropped below stage at all locations in the basin, but that trend will soon reverse as water levels start to climb again throughout the week. With an additional 2-3" of rain expected in this area as well, it's beginning to look like the region will generally repeat the flood levels experienced last week. In addition to the river flooding, some of the thunderstorms we're expecting over the next few days could be very slow moving over the same areas repeatedly. If this happens, some localized rain totals of 4+ inches are possible in the next few days. If this happens over one of the urban areas, significant fast- developing urban flooding is possible. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for MIZ037>040-043>046- 050>052. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for LMZ844>849. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ844>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...CAS AVIATION...NJJ MARINE...CAS HYDROLOGY...AMD  441 FXUS64 KMRX 140533 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 133 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 128 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - A warming trend with above normal temperatures expected through this week. Record highs are possible. - There is very limited chances for light rain through the forecast period. This will result in worsening drought and fire weather conditions. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 121 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A large high pressure ridge will remain over FL/Gulf/western Atlantic through this forecast period, which will provide above normal temperatures and generally dry conditions to the Southern Appalachians and TN Valley. We are seeing a good amount of cloud cover today from a jet streak and shortwave trough passing by to our north, but once that passes to our east tonight, mostly sunny clear will return. High temps tomorrow will approach records for the date, with the same expected on Wednesday. Low RH values will be of concern for fire weather interests, bottoming out in the 25-35% range both days for most locations, but thankfully the SW winds will be mainly in the 5-15 mph range. With these lighter winds, we do not anticipate the need for any Fire Danger statements over the next few days. Models show the ridge drifting southward a bit on Thursday, allowing a mid/upper level trough and jet streak to cross the region. NBM has been trending higher with rain chances, which are now in the chance range north of I-40 Thursday afternoon and evening. Looking at the NAM forecast soundings Thursday afternoon, there is a strong stable and dry layer that will have to be overcome for any measurable precip, leading to skepticism of the NBM PoPs. Don't get your hopes up for any meaningful rainfall just yet. Highs will be pushing near records again on Friday and Saturday as the ridge amplifies northward again. Better rain chances may exist on Sunday as models show a deeper trough developing over the Plains that could push a cold front through our area. Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 04-14 87(2010) 86(1887) 85(1938) 88(2017) 04-15 87(2006) 87(1936) 85(1945) 86(2024) 04-16 89(2002) 87(1896) 87(2002) 88(2002) 04-17 91(1955) 90(1896) 85(2002) 88(1955) 04-18 90(2002) 90(1896) 87(2002) 89(2002) 04-19 91(2002) 90(1941) 90(1941) 90(2002) && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 128 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions prevail. Southwesterly winds around 10kts will return late morning into tomorrow afternoon. Gusts near 20kts possible at TYS. Mid to high level CIGS through the first 2/3rds of the TAF cycle. Skies will clear with light winds returning in the evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 87 58 88 60 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 85 59 86 60 / 10 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 85 56 86 58 / 10 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 82 56 84 56 / 10 0 0 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...DGS AVIATION...KRS  666 FXUS63 KGRB 140534 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1234 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms will develop late this afternoon and continue into the overnight hours with hail in excess of 2 inches, damaging winds and a tornado possible with the strongest storms. The highest risk is across central Wisconsin. - Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches across parts of central into east-central Wisconsin may lead to additional flood concerns through tonight. - An active stretch of weather continues through late week with continued periods of showers and storms. The risk area for severe storms shifts south on Tuesday, but extends north into parts of central and east-central Wisconsin. - Minor to moderate river flooding is ongoing or forecast to occur on several area rivers. Expect many rivers to rise this week due to additional rain and runoff from Upper Michigan, with the greatest impacts expected on the Menominee River, where some locations may see major flooding during the mid to late part of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Tonight: Severe Storms/Heavy Rain Early afternoon surface analysis indicated a surface low over central Nebraska with a warm front snaking eastward across northern Iowa into central Wisconsin. MLCAPE has increased to around 1000 J/kg across central Wisconsin with some inhibition noted. Late this afternoon, expect more focused storm initiation/intensification generally in the vicinity of the warm front and nose of the low- level jet. Surface-based instability is maximized over central Wisconsin (1000-2000 J/kg) by late this afternoon with effective shear around 40-50 kts. Combined with steep lapse rates already sampled by the 18Z GRB RAOB, the environment will be supportive of large to very large hail. The tornado risk likely will be highest along the warm front from west-central Wisconsin into perhaps central Wisconsin as the low-level jet increases early this evening and overlaps the warm front/instability axis. Damaging wind risk will depend on the degree of upscale growth/organization of storms. Overall, the severe weather risk lessens with northward extent. Precipitable water values remain near the top of climatology for mid April. HREF probability matched mean 24-hr rainfall is in the 1 to 3 inch range across parts of central into east-central Wisconsin through tonight, on the nose of the low-level jet. However, rainfall amounts will depend on the organization and degree of training. This rainfall could exacerbate already saturated soils. Areas of fog may also develop overnight behind the storms. Tuesday: Additional storms The front slides south on Tuesday with the instability axis also displaced south. The placement of the boundary will impact the northward extent of severe weather during the afternoon/evening. RAP hodographs show lesser low-level shear although an elongated profile favorable for large hail and winds. Currently the highest risk of severe storms is across southern Wisconsin, but could extend into parts of east-central Wisconsin. Wednesday-Monday: Active into the weekend Southwest flow aloft persists into late week keeping the area in a warm, wet pattern. Another shortwave trough will bring additional shower (40-80%) chances Wednesday into Thursday. A more dynamic trough is slated to impact the region late Friday into the weekend bringing additional widespread rainfall and storms. The northward extent of greater instability is somewhat uncertain with this system, impacting severe weather potential, but this will be something to watch in the coming days. Drier and cooler weather is expected behind this system for early next week. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1234 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 West to east oriented cluster of thunderstorms has sunk south of a OSH to MTW line late this evening, however, periodic lightning strikes are being observed across the Fox Valley within the stratiform rain. Lightning activity should start to wane after after 08-09Z. North of the storms cigs have become mainly IFR/LIFR. Expect these low clouds to remain through Tuesday morning at all terminal. Areas of fog and mist are also expected at most terminals through daybreak Tuesday with the lowest vsbys (1/2 to 1SM) across northern WI, including RHI. Dry conditions should prevail Tuesday morning with cigs lifting to MVFR at most terminals. The next round of rain and thunderstorms will lift into central and east-central WI late Tuesday afternoon (after 4PM). The best chance scattered severe storms will be south of an ISW to GRB line with large hail and damaging wind gusts the main hazards. Once storms depart (after 11PM) another round of fog and low clouds is expected into Wednesday morning. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 245 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Flooding is expected to continue on several area rivers during the week, and will be exacerbated by periodic heavy rainfall. Runoff from Upper Michigan is still expected to bring moderate to major flooding along the Menominee River, especially during the mid to late part of the week. If you live near a river or stream, keep a close eye on water levels this week and monitor the latest Flood Warnings from the National Weather Service in Green Bay. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for WIZ013-018>022-030- 031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074. && $$ DISCUSSION.....JM AVIATION.......GK HYDROLOGY......Kieckbusch/JM  640 FXUS62 KFFC 140536 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 136 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New 06Z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 132 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Fire weather concerns will persist this week given the ongoing very dry and warm conditions. - Temperatures will remain well above normal through the weekend. Some could approach daily record highs by mid-week. - With little chance of appreciable rainfall over the next 7 days drought conditions will worsen. && .UPDATE... Issued at 936 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 The Red Flag Warning has been allowed to expire. Winds have slackened, and weak moisture rebounds are expected to continue overnight. Minimum relative humidity values will remain at or below critical thresholds tomorrow, and a Fire Danger Statement has been issued for all of north and central Georgia for Tuesday afternoon and evening amid continued anomalously dry conditions. 96 && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 149 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 There will be no change with respect to the ongoing hot and dry stretch with temperatures resuming their upward swing on Tuesday. Atlantic high pressure will maintain its grip at the surface while the resurgent ridge will keep any precipitation/frontal boundaries repelled well to our north and west. Without the impact of today's broken high clouds, highs will warm back into the mid to upper 80s on Tuesday with a few 90 degree readings possibly sneaking into parts of central Georgia. Dangerous fire weather conditions will persist with details expounded upon in the Fire Weather section of the AFD below. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday morning through next Sunday) Issued at 149 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Very Warm and Dry Pattern Continues: A strong ridge extending from the Gulf up across the Southeast US will keep very warm and dry conditions in place throughout this week. This persistent weather can be attributed to a textbook omega-block synoptic pattern, with deep troughing on both sides of the ridge. Dry air from the mid to high latitudes wrapping around the east side of the ridge will keep PWAT values over Georgia generally under 0.75-1", resulting in near zero rainfall chances. One exception to this could be late Thursday, as model guidance continues to have a shortwave pushing across the Midwest and TN Valley. Rainfall chances with this feature will depend on how strong it is as crashes into the ridge, but for now it looks like a 10-20% chance for rain showers in very far NW GA. The dry airmass and low rain chances this week will only worsen our ongoing drought conditions, and likely lead to daily fire weather concerns. High and low temperatures during this period will end up around 12-20 degrees above normal. This will translate to high temperatures in the 80s to low 90s through Saturday. Daily records would be in jeopardy with those temps, and we could see our earliest 90 degree day on record for the Atlanta area. Overnight lows will only drop to the low to mid 60s. The one benefit of the lower moisture/humidity is that heat index values would not be a concern during this period. Cooler with Slight Rain Chances Late This Weekend? Confidence in the forecast starts to drop off after Saturday due to a fairly large spread in model guidance, but there continues to be a growing number of ensemble members showing the synoptic pattern finally starting to breakdown and progress. This progression, with the ridge over the Southeast getting kicked out while broad troughing sets up over most of the Eastern US, would initially bring a cold front and rain chances through the area, with cooler and dry conditions to follow for early next week. Unfortunately, most of the latest ensemble members do not have much moisture with this front, and only have a decent chance of 0.10" of rainfall in far NW GA. If this forecast holds, most of the area will continue to remain rain-free through at least early next week, worsening drought conditions even further. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 132 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Patchy fog will be possible in portions of east-central GA in the early morning, with vsby restrictions of 1-2 SM occasionally developing at MCN before sunrise. Otherwise, VFR conditions will persist through the period, with SKC or a few passing upper clouds between 20-25 kft. Winds will be primarily SW, at 4 kts or less in the early morning, increasing to 5-10 kts after 14Z, and diminishing once again after 00Z. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... High confidence on all elements. King && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 59 88 60 87 / 0 0 0 0 Atlanta 61 87 62 86 / 0 0 0 0 Blairsville 55 85 56 83 / 0 0 0 0 Cartersville 58 89 59 88 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 58 88 59 87 / 0 0 0 0 Gainesville 60 87 62 86 / 0 0 0 0 Macon 57 89 59 88 / 0 0 0 0 Rome 57 89 58 87 / 0 0 0 10 Peachtree City 57 87 58 86 / 0 0 0 0 Vidalia 60 92 61 91 / 0 0 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM....Culver AVIATION...King  964 FXUS65 KPSR 140537 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 1037 PM MST Mon Apr 13 2026 .UPDATE...Updated 06Z Aviation Discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - A weather system will swing through the region today and tonight bringing more breezy to locally windy conditions as well as chances for light showers focused over the Arizona high terrain. - Weak high pressure will settle back into the region during the middle of the week leading to drier and slightly warmer conditions. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Large scale troughing continues over much of Western CONUS with upper level moisture being advected into the region from the SW. Following close behind the main troughing feature is another smaller disturbance that has already begun to merge with the main trough and is diving down California's coast, moving closer to the Desert SW. However, a patch of dry air can be seen on GOES water vapor imagery to the regions west, which will dry out the upper levels as it pushes inland along with the aforementioned trough starting this evening and overnight. Hi-Res CAMs suggest some isolated showers likely to develop however will be fighting against a dry boundary layer, so much of the lower deserts will at most see a trace while the Arizona higher terrain may receive a few hundredths to up to a tenth of an inch in localized areas. As the disturbance continues to weaken and lifts to the northeast on Tuesday, a few light showers may still be possible during the morning hours over far eastern Arizona. Otherwise, breezy to windy conditions will continue across the vast majority of the region this afternoon as these systems move through. Wind gusts this afternoon/evening will be between 20-30 mph, with periods of 30-40 mph possible in southeastern California. Winds across most of the region are expected to relax by midnight tonight, with the exception of southeast California, where winds will persist through the morning hours. Thanks to these systems, afternoon high temperatures will be below normal for this time of year. Today's high temperature will be in the mid to upper 70s across southeast California, and in the upper 70s to low 80s in the Phoenix area. By tomorrow, southeast California will begin to warm back up into the upper 70s to low 80s as the system pushes farther eastwards, while the Phoenix area will be in the upper 70s. This will be the coolest day of the week for the Phoenix area. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Shortwave ridging will briefly move through the region on Wednesday leading to another quiet day while temperatures warm back into the mid 80s for most lower desert locations. A robust Pacific low pressure system will also move through the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday on its way to the Great Basin by Thursday. Ensembles continue to favor a more northern track with this low across the Great Basin and into the Central Rockies while also weakening. The base of the trough may clip Arizona, but all indications so far keep any system energy and moisture well to our north. However, the fairly close proximity of the system should be enough to bring more breezy to locally windy conditions on Thursday and/or Friday while also leading to a slight dip in temperatures likely for Friday. Looking ahead for next weekend a more significant ridge is expected to move over the Western U.S. with the NBM suggesting a return of highs back into the 90s by Sunday. Fortunately, this warm up may be fairly brief as guidance mostly favors another trough moving in from the west northwest at some point during the first half of next week. && .AVIATION...Updated at 0535Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: A cold front moved through the area earlier this evening bringing breezy conditions and VCSH to all four terminals. Some residual breeziness (gusts into the upper teens to around 20 kt) remain at all terminals except KIWA, but should subside over the next 1-2 hours. A few areas of VCSH/virga also remain in the Phoenix Metro, but should also exit the area over the next 1-2 hours. After wind speeds subside tonight, winds should generally be around 10 kt or less through the rest of the TAF period, with some occasional gusts into the teens possible tomorrow afternoon. Confidence remains low in a E/SE wind shift overnight/early tomorrow morning and winds may just stay W/SW or go light and variable. If winds were to go SE this looks to occur during the 12-17Z window. Westerly winds will reestablish tomorrow afternoon, with winds returning to their diurnal tendencies, with an E/SE shift expected late tomorrow night. Cloud cover (with bases around 7-9 kft) will gradually clear out overnight with mostly clear skies returning tomorrow morning. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Wind speeds will be aob 10 kt through the TAF period at both terminals. Winds will predominately have a westerly component at KIPL. At KBLH, current southwesterly winds will go northerly late tomorrow morning before going southeasterly tomorrow night. Skies will remain mostly clear. && .FIRE WEATHER... A weather system will pass through the region this evening through the overnight period, with chances for mostly high terrain showers, but CWR will be less than 10%. Today will again be quite breezy with afternoon and evening wind gusts between 20-30 mph over much of the area. MinRHs today will rise to 25-30% before lowering to 15-25% Tuesday and 10-15% starting Wednesday as dry air fully encompasses the region. Overall light winds are forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday while temperatures warm back into the normal range by Wednesday. Dry conditions will prevail through the rest of the week, but a passing weather system on Thursday and Friday should bring another round of breezy to windy conditions. The low humidities and the increased winds late week may bring a period of elevated fire weather conditions heading into the weekend. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Ryan LONG TERM...Kuhlman AVIATION...Berislavich FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman/Ryan  412 FXUS64 KBRO 140537 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1237 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1228 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Key Messages: - Breezy conditions will continue this week. - A moderate risk of rip currents will likely to prevail through the week. - Temperatures will continue to warm through the week, with a cool down late this weekend. - Unsettled weather will return this weekend in association with a cold front moving through Texas. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1013 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 High pressure over the Gulf into the southeastern US will maintain warm, breezy, and dry conditions through the week. Temperatures will continue to warm, reaching the 90s for much of the region by Thursday. Coastal areas will remain in the upper 70s into the 80s. As we head into the weekend a cold front will move through Texas bringing with it another chance of rain and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon through Monday. The aforementioned front will move through Deep South Texas on Sunday which will also be the day for our highest rain chances (35-50%). Cooler temperatures are expected in wake of the front, with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s on Sunday and mid 80s on Monday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A mixture of VFR to MVFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period at all TAF sites. While light winds and some haze could affect the region during the early morning hours. The southeasterly winds should become more gustier by the mid- morning with gusts up to 30 knots possible. By late tonight, the winds should then decrease to being light again, while still being out of the southeast. && .MARINE... Issued at 1013 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Generally favorable marine conditions are expected on the waters off the lower Texas coast with moderate winds and wave heights. Could see some caution conditions each afternoon, mainly on the Laguna Madre and nearshore waters due to a locally enhanced pressure gradient. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 86 73 87 73 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 88 69 89 70 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 91 74 92 74 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 92 72 92 71 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 79 74 79 73 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 85 71 85 71 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...68 LONG TERM....68 AVIATION...64-Katz  757 FXUS63 KMPX 140538 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1238 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe storms expected along a warm front this afternoon through the evening. Hail is the most likely threat, with secondary threat of tornadoes in southern/southeast Minnesota. - Areas of dense fog in the morning, followed by clearing skies tomorrow with continued warm temperatures. - Multiple chances for rain showers and weak storms throughout the rest of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 124 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Eyes are glued to satellite this afternoon as we await convective initiation within a few hours, with the warm frontal boundary evident over far southeastern South Dakota through the I-90 corridor as a secondary boundary has set up farther north associated with the light showers stretching from central South Dakotas through St. Cloud. The southern boundary is the warm front associated with an incoming low pressure system that is expected to be the locus of severe weather activity later, with the northward extent of the front one of the key things to watch as this will dictate how far north the severe weather threat persists. Forecast soundings from various CAMs showcase extensive low level instability with upwards of 2500+ J/KG SBCAPE with limited CIN along the warm front but extensive 100-200 CIN north of it with a lack of low level winds/shear but extensive 0-6km shear. What this means is elevated storms capable of producing hail will exist north of the primary warm frontal boundary, with the warm front the most likely zone for potential tornadoes as storm interactions and streamwise vorticity will both be maximized within this zone despite the lackluster low level shear. The 17z WoFS run has largely favored a southerly solution for weather potential, keeping the best potential for both tornadoes and hail confined to the region south of the Twin Cities metro and favoring an area from roughly Olmsted County in SE MN to Jackson County in western WI (both covered by NWS La Crosse). The tornado threat is highly contingent on the dew point depression at surface level, as the lack of 0-1km shear means we need incredibly low LCLs below 500ft for the threat to be tangible, which means we need to be highly saturated below 1000ft otherwise the tornado threat may not end up being realized. The hail threat is the most likely overall given the extensive mid level shear and steep lapse rates, and even with lower level capping elevated storms would be capable of producing severe hail. The wind threat is largely relying on precipitation loading/momentum enhancement with limited lower level flow until the low level jet amplifies, however for our area this is not realized until later in the evening when the warm front is already exiting the area to the southeast. Overall, there is still some higher end hail potential and a tornado threat and we will have to closely monitor the position of the warm front as well as overall storm environment over the next few hours. The timing window looks to be CI from 3-4pm, most intense from 4-9pm across the area, diminishing quickly as the front moves southeast after 9pm. As we keep a close eye on the environment over the next few hours, a Watch seems more likely than not at this point, it is more a question of if we have the confidence for a Tornado Watch versus a Severe Thunderstorm Watch given we expect the Tornado threat to be conditional versus the more likely hail threat. A few more elevated storms are possible for a few hours after 8-9pm from cold FROPA with limited potential for severe weather, with light showers and rumbles of thunder more likely as the environment quickly shifts towards some patchy dense fog early tomorrow morning with visibility reductions below 2 miles likely as temperatures drop back to dew points. This fog persists through the morning commute before diminishing rapidly after 9-10am, with another day near 70 tomorrow amidst skies clearing out to become mostly sunny by the afternoon. Another low pressure system developing underneath an incoming shortwave trough by late Tuesday introduces our next chance for showers, with the position of the system favoring areas to our south for severe weather with limited thunderstorm activity north of the MN/IA border. The low is expected to track from Omaha to Milwaukee keeping us on the relatively cooler northern side with showers persisting on and off throughout Wednesday before exiting early Thursday to the east. There is a non-zero chance for some isolated severe weather, however the better environment should remain to our south. Another surface low quickly develops ahead of a broad trough off the lee side of the Rockies by late Thursday tracking across the area on Friday bringing further chances for showers and thunderstorms, with the low becoming broader and weakening as it approaches. The current favored track would take the surface low towards northern Lake Superior by early Saturday, which would wrap in enough cold air from central Canada to introduce snow or wintry mix chances Friday night into Saturday morning. Accumulations are uncertain at this point as it will depend heavily on the track of the system, which is not nailed down just yet as we have a couple of systems before it arrives to get through. We end the period into the 2nd half of the weekend with broad high pressure bringing sunshine and temperatures in the 50s for Sunday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1234 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Main concern overnight will be another round of IFR fog that will develop across the area. All terminals will likely see either fog or low stratus develop given the recent rainfall and clearing skies behind yesterday's thunderstorms. LAMP guidance remains most aggressive with visibility reductions across eastern MN/western WI. I've opted to lean on BUFKIT forecast soundings for a slightly less pessimistic look. Low stratus will slowly erode Tuesday AM with most sites returning to VFR by early afternoon. Light and variable winds overnight will turn northwesterly after daybreak between 5-10kts. KMSP...Guidance continues to point towards a window of IFR fog overnight. Fog and low stratus will erode by late morning and return to VFR with northwesterly flow by Tuesday afternoon. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...MVFR/SHRA early, then VFR. Wind NE 5kts. THU...VFR, chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind SE 5-10kts. FRI...MVFR/SHRA likely, chance -TSRA. Wind SE to SW 10-15G25kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TDH AVIATION...BPH  007 FXUS61 KRNK 140538 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 138 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation discussion updated. Temperatures were tweaked to increase the diurnal range given from the model guidance due to dry air in place. Record temperatures are possible for the next three days. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A strong upper level ridge will bring abnormal warmth for the next few days with record heat possible. Some relief from the heat and dryness may come from a cold front by Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: A strong upper level ridge will bring abnormal warmth for the next few days with record heat possible. Some relief from the heat and dryness may come from a cold front by Sunday. An anomalously strong 590 dam upper level ridge centered over Florida combined with high pressure offshore should provide ample warm air advection from a southwest flow. Temperatures should jump 15 to 25 degrees above normal for the middle of April during today through Thursday. It will feel more like summer than spring as record highs and record high minimums, or warmest lows, will be challenged during this timeframe. Make sure to stay hydrated and find shade if outside for long periods. See the Climate section below for more information on the records in jeopardy. With the unusual warmth and ongoing drought conditions expected for the remainder of this week, the fire weather risk continues to rise. A fire danger statement is already in effect for portions of the North Carolina Piedmont today. Relative humidities should fall towards 20 to 30 percent over the next few afternoons, especially east of the Blue Ridge. See the Fire Weather section below for more details. Only small teases of moisture from frontal boundaries passing to the north may bring a chance of showers later this afternoon and again by Thursday night across the mountains. However, confidence remains low on any activity putting a dent into the climbing rainfall deficits. All locations are two to three inches below normal for rain since the beginning of March. By Sunday, a stronger cold front may arrive from the west. Rainfall amounts do not look too impressive from this frontal passage, but it is the next best opportunity for any meaningful relief. The northwest flow behind this front should push temperatures back closer to normal by Monday. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions through the TAF period. Light and variable winds this morning will remain WSW today and increase to 7 to 10 knots with gusts up to 20 kts after noon. Winds trend quickly down to light and variable or calm again tonight. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Mainly dry with VFR conditions throughout the rest of the week. Winds will generally be out of the southwest, and gusts up to 20 knots are possible each afternoon as the boundary layer warms and mixes. The only chances of showers that could temporarily halt the ongoing dry spell occur during the afternoons across the mountains. These will be very isolated and will fade with loss of daytime heating. && .FIRE WEATHER... Unusually warm and dry conditions will take place with record heat possible over the next three days. Rainfall chances appear low and remain confined to the mountains, which will only prolong the ongoing drought. Relative humidities will fall towards 20 to 30 percent for the next few afternoons, especially east of the Blue Ridge. Some southern-facing slopes may have relative humidities drop below 20 percent with afternoon sunshine and gusty winds due to an unstable atmosphere from the increasing heat. These aforementioned conditions will escalate fire danger across the entire region. The anomalous heat and low humidity combined with daytime gusts will only make fire containment increasingly difficult throughout the rest of this week. A fire danger statement is already in effect for portions of the North Carolina Piedmont today. The next notable chance for any widespread wetting rainfall may not come until Sunday when a cold front arrives to bring some relief. && .CLIMATE... The following record high maximums and record high minimums, or warmest lows, are in jeopardy due to the abnormal warmth over the next three days: Today: Station Hi Max THi Min T Roanoke91 in 194567 in 1922 Lynchburg91 in 194163 in 2014 Danville91 in 194575 in 1922 Bluefield83 in 193064 in 1977 Blacksburg82 in 194160 in 1941 Wednesday: StationHi Max THi Min T Roanoke89 in 193667 in 2024 Lynchburg89 in 194165 in 1896 Danville91 in 200668 in 1922 Bluefield89 in 192260 in 2006 Blacksburg83 in 194157 in 1954 Thursday: StationHi Max THi Min T Roanoke90 in 200261 in 2017 Lynchburg91 in 200265 in 1912 Danville92 in 200264 in 1916 Bluefield81 in 201266 in 2006 Blacksburg82 in 194161 in 1941 && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...PW AVIATION...SH FIRE WEATHER...PW CLIMATE...PW/SH  977 FXUS65 KTFX 140538 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1140 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Aviation Section Updated .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated mountain snow and lower elevation rain showers this evening. - Gusty winds along the Rocky Mountain Front Tuesday and Wednesday. - A spring storm late Wednesday through Thursday brings impactful mountain snow, with lower elevation snow Thursday. - Drier and milder conditions move in for the weekend. && .UPDATE... Updated forecast is out for this evening. Main change was just to freshen pops. Also to add a bit of thunder in Hill/Blaine counties where a few thunderstorms developed this evening. A weak upper level disturbance is moving eastward along the Hi-line this evening in the westerly flow aloft, resulting in just enough instability for a few thunderstorms. Some patchy fog is possible once again later tonight and into Tuesday morning. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast is on track. Brusda && .DISCUSSION... /Issued 300 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026/ - Meteorological Overview: A small closed low tracking across Idaho through Southwest MT, will keep isolated mountain snow and lower elevation rain showers through the rest of the day today. Weak instability will allow for isolated thunderstorms to develop, but any storms that do develop will remain weak. There will be a break in precipitation Tuesday before the next incoming trough moves through. Increasing westerly flow aloft will allow for some cross barrier flow to move into the Rocky Mountain Front. Gusty winds develops as a result along the Rocky Mountain Front Tuesday through Wednesday morning. A deepening trough from the British Columbia coast begins to move into the Pacific NW Wednesday. Mountain snow with lower elevation rain moves into the region along with breezy winds. A Pacific cold front sweeps across the region beginning late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Strong cold air advection along the front will crash snow levels down to the lower elevations, allowing for some accumulating snow Thursday. Temperatures will also be well below normal Thursday. Snow lingers through the day Thursday before this system exits. Northwest flow Friday keeps isolated rain/snow showers. An upper-level ridge builds in for the weekend, which will bring drier and milder weather besides for a few terrain driven showers. - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: Winds Tuesday and Wednesday: Peak mid level flow looks to move through Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Though this peak 700mb winds look to pass through quickly. Therefore, it will be difficult for high wind warning criteria winds to materialize, but it will still be windy along the immediate Rocky Mountain Front Foothills (55-65 mph). Snow Mid Week: Models show this trough splitting into two waves. This pattern is favoring the bulk of the moisture to Southwest MT. There's a 50-90% chance for 0.5" of moisture for Madison and Gallatin Counties Wednesday through Friday morning, and up to a 60% chance for 1" in the mountains. There is strong cooling aloft with this cold front passage late Wednesday and Thursday will quickly drop snow levels to lower elevations. Frontogenesis and weak CAPE along the front poses a risk for convective snow banding/squalls in Southwest MT. The combination of good moisture and strong forcing gives a 40-60% chance for 9" of snow for Raynolds and Targhee Pass, and along Highway 191 between Big Sky and West Yellowstone. One area to watch will be for the Gallatin and Madison River valleys. Forecast soundings show a rapid change from rain to snow along the front, and heavy snow rates combined with this front moving through at night time can quickly accumulate snow in those valleys. So far there's a 20-50% chance for 6" of snow for the Bozeman/Gallatin Gateway area and Highway 287 in Madison County. Wet moderate to heavy snow can pose a risk to the infrastructure as well. We will continue to monitor impacts in that region. Precipitation amounts across North-Central MT is lower, so probabilities for snow is less. There's a up to a 30-60% chance for 1" of snow at lower elevations. However, depending on how the northern wave of the split trough tracks, the Hi-line could see higher moisture amounts (low confidence). Snowfall amounts for the Continental Divide and Central MT mountains look to be more minor at passes. There's a 60-80% chance for 4" of snow at Marias and Kings Hill Pass and a 30-50% chance for 6". -Wilson && .AVIATION... 14/06Z TAF Period A few isolated showers will affect the Havre/Harlem areas through about 10z Tue. Some patchy fog is possible where winds remain light tonight, but for now I kept the fog out of the terminals. Otherwise, the other main impact will be increasing surface winds later this morning and through the afternoon hours across the CWA. The windy conditions will continue into Tuesday evening. Brusda && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 38 58 42 59 / 20 0 0 30 CTB 36 53 33 54 / 20 0 0 10 HLN 35 61 38 58 / 20 10 0 60 BZN 31 61 35 60 / 20 0 0 60 WYS 24 47 27 45 / 50 10 10 80 DLN 29 57 35 56 / 20 0 0 50 HVR 37 64 38 62 / 30 0 0 10 LWT 34 60 36 58 / 20 10 0 50 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls  036 FXUS65 KBOI 140539 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 1139 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .UPDATE...Updated key messages. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Snow levels will drop to near valley floors Thursday morning with cold frontal passage for lower elevation snow likely. - Near or below freezing morning temperatures Thursday through Saturday across the entire area. && .SHORT TERM /Through Wednesday Night/... Issued 203 PM MDT MON APR 13 2026 The active pattern remains in place across southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho. Rain and snow showers continue through the remainder of the afternoon, tapering by mid evening. Significant snow has fallen above 6000 feet today with reports of 14 to 18 inches of snowfall. As of 1 PM MDT today, 2.40 inches of rainfall has been recorded for the month of April 2026 at Boise. This currently ranks as the 9th wettest April on record for the Boise area, with 17 days remaining in the month. For tonight and Tuesday, a brief period of weak ridging will move through the region, providing a short lull in the widespread precipitation seen earlier this week. Light winds, clearing skies, and significant surface moisture will promote the development of patchy fog Tuesday morning, especially across the Long Valley and Treasure Valley. The break is short lived as a strong upper level low currently over Alaska begins to dig south along the Pacific coast late Tuesday afternoon and evening. Clouds will increase from the west as moisture begins to advect into the region ahead of the next system. Light rain showers will develop over the mountains of southeast Oregon late Tuesday, spreading into southwest Idaho overnight. The main weather event arrives Wednesday as the cold front approaches. Strong southwesterly flow ahead of the front will result in breezy conditions Wednesday afternoon, with gusts of 25 to 35 mph possible across the higher terrain and open valleys of southeast Oregon. Widespread rain is expected for the valleys through Wednesday evening, with snow levels initially remaining around 5000 to 6000 feet MSL. The cold frontal passage is timed for late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. This front will bring a sharp transition in the weather. Winds will shift to the northwest and remain gusty. More importantly, a much colder air mass will pour into the region, causing snow levels to plummet toward valley floors by sunrise Thursday. While the bulk of the moisture will be moving east, wrap around moisture and unstable northwesterly flow will support a mix of rain and snow for the Treasure and Magic Valleys, with light snow accumulations possible on grassy surfaces and higher valley benches. In the mountains, lower valleys will see a couple inches of snow but areas above 5500 feet could see several inches of new snow Thursday morning, which may impact travel over mountain passes. && .LONG TERM /Thursday through Monday/... Issued 203 PM MDT MON APR 13 2026 Following a strong cold front, temperatures on Thursday cool down to 5-10 degrees below normal. Not exceptionally cold climatologically, but following a long warm spell it will feel like a sudden burst of winter for lower elevations. It's enough for most of the Snake Plain to see sub-freezing morning low temperatures. Again, this isn't climatologically exceptional, however, a green-up in the past two weeks has seen many plants begin to bloom or sprout. The freezing morning temperatures threaten this new growth, especially for gardens and crops. For those who started their garden early, it may be wise to consider covering up plants or bringing them inside. Personally, I'm going to be using the time to clean up after late winter and early spring bug hatches. Aside from the cold morning temperatures, as snow tapers off Thursday evening high pressure builds and we head into a warming and drying trend. The drying trend allows morning lows to stay near freezing through Saturday, but afternoon high temperatures will climb back up to near normal. Gusty winds up to 35 mph on Thursday weaken each afternoon, to 30 mph Friday, and 20 mph Saturday. Sunday, temps are about 5 degrees above normal. Sunday night and next Monday models show another strong low diving south along the West Coast, and isolating itself from the jet stream. This will mark the onset of another cool and wet period. && .AVIATION /06Z Tuesday through Wednesday/... Issued 1117 PM MDT MON APR 13 2026 Isolated showers overnight, creating brief low VFR/MVFR conditions. Snow levels 4500-5500 ft MSL. Areas of mtn obscuration. Pockets of fog/low clouds in the Snake Plain and mtn valleys through morning. Surface winds: variable up to 12 kt overnight, then SW-NW 5-15 kt in the afternoon. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-SW 15-25 kt. KBOI...Generally VFR. Isolated rain showers in Treasure Valley through the morning, with a 30% chance of MVFR in showers/low clouds between Tue/10Z-15Z. Surface winds: NW or variable around 5 kt. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....SH SHORT TERM...JDS LONG TERM....JM  116 FXUS63 KGID 140540 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1240 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Fire weather is a primary hazard to focus on this afternoon, and potentially tomorrow in north central Kansas. Thursday will also be warm, dry, and windy, and could be another day for fire concerns. - There is a chance for a shower or thunderstorm Tuesday evening (20-50% with best chances far southeast and far northwest), but it currently looks more likely that most of the area remains dry, and any precipitation will likely be less than a tenth of an inch. - The next strong storm system arrives late Friday into early Saturday. Expect thunderstorms on the leading edge of this storm with snow on the back side of the storm. The current most likely storm track suggests the best chance for thunderstorms is east of HWY 281, and the greatest chance for rain changing to snow is north of the Platte River. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1221 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A discussion on fire-weather-specific information can be found in the Fire section below. Surface low pressure located near Kearney at mid day will gradually develop northeast toward Albion through this afternoon. Warm and dry air will overspread the entire area this afternoon. One thing to watch this afternoon will be a low-end potential for isolated convection to develop in the wraparound moisture on the west side of the surface low. We most likely should stay precipitation free, but there's about a 10% chance for development in far northern counties of the forecast area around 5 PM, and a better chance farther north. As we get into the overnight hours and the low pressure moves off to the northeast, cooler and moisture air will push south into many of our Nebraska counties while new low pressure develops in northwest KS. This front will likely stall in the vicinity of the KS/NE border and hang out in that area on Tuesday. Expect a good pool of low level moisture immediately on the cool side of the front while areas to the south remain warm and in a dry airmass. While a ribbon of instability is likely to develop near/north of the front, there will be a very strong cap in place and surface based storms are not expected. As we get a bit deeper into the evening, there is some potential for increased convergence along and just north of the boundary to provide a semi-favorable environment for breaking the cap, but would require significant moisture transport and pooling through a pretty good depth and into the warm layer aloft. As of now, forecast soundings are not favorable for thunderstorm development, and if it does happen would stand a better chance with eastward extent. Farther north, closer to the core of a short wave trough with weaker cap and stronger forcing, there is a better chance for showers or a few thunderstorms to develop and skirt across our northern counties, but truthfully that precip potential is greater farther to the north. A few wraparound showers could linger into Wednesday, depending on how quickly the system moves off to the east. Overall, this system does not look particularly rainy for south central NE or north central KS. After a period of mid level ridging on Thursday, there is good model agreement with high probability for a strong storm system tracking from Colorado across KS/NE late Friday into Saturday. This has the look (and the temperature profile) of a classic spring system with thunderstorms ahead of the low, snow on the northwest quadrant, and plenty of wind for everyone. Any severe storm potential will be highly dependent upon timing of the storm system, and current indications suggest a higher likelihood of severe storms east of the local forecast area, so we'll be watching potential for the system to slow down and pull better moisture back to the west. The snow potential will also be highly dependent upon the storm track, and right now the greatest potential appears to be north of the local forecast area. Where it does snow, it will be accompanied by strong winds, and so this too is worth very closely monitoring as it could make for hazardous travel conditions Friday night into Saturday morning. After this system, should see a period of slightly cooler conditions with calmer weather overall...at least into the first couple days of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1220 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Have VFR conditions in for this TAF period...though there is some uncertainty with that as we approach sunrise on into at least the first half of the day, as models show the potential for some lower level clouds to spread into the area. Most guidance keeps things VFR, but will have to monitor trends closely. Light/variable winds continue for a few more hours tonight, expected to turn more northeasterly before sunrise. Mid-morning on through mid-afternoon, there will be the potential for gusts around 25 MPH. Mid-late afternoon, there is some uncertainty and lower confidence in the winds for a few hours, as a frontal boundary tries working its way back north. Have a period of light/variable winds...there is some question with just how far north the front gets, and whether it complicates winds briefly before the next cold front pushes south through the area, switching winds back to the northeast. For the final few hours of this period, there will be the potential for isolated to scattered precipitation to develop, so did insert a PROB30 mention. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Today: Low pressure moving from near Kearney to near Columbus this afternoon will pull a narrow sector of warm and very dry air across the forecast area today. As temperatures warm, wind speeds will increase this afternoon with gusts to 25 mph, and some potential for a few gusts to 30 mph. Also expect the wind direction to gradually become more westerly as the afternoon progresses...no sharp wind shifts are expected but more of a gradual change. Near sunset, the wind gusts should come to an end with RH slowly recovering into the evening. Overnight, winds will turn out of the northeast in most Nebraska counties as a front slowly drifts southward, but should remain mainly out of the south in Kansas counties. RH will also increase with RH above 80% north of the front overnight into Tuesday morning. Tuesday: For much of the day on Tuesday, a front will extend from near Norton to near Hebron, give or take 30 miles or so. North of that front, winds will be out of the northeast and gusty at times, with RH starting the day around 90% and reaching an afternoon minimum around 40%. South of the front, the airmass will be much drier with southwest or westerly winds. MinRH in these areas will be in the 12-16% range, and while winds may gust 20-25 mph, there is some uncertainty in just how strong the winds will be, and whether or not they will reach Red Flag criteria. At this time, with less confidence in the afternoon wind speeds, will maintain the fire weather watch for KS counties as it stands, with intent to make a warn/no-warn decision late this evening or early Tuesday. WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY: Thursday looks like the best chance for warm, dry, and windy conditions possibly leading to another Red Flag setup. Friday could also feature a dryline scenario with very low afternoon RH in parts of the area, especially southwest, and followed by a cold frontal passage and a wind shift out of the northwest. The best chance for meaningful precipitation appears to arrive late Friday, although far from a guarantee of widespread wetting rain. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...Fire Weather Watch from noon CDT today through this evening for KSZ005>007-017>019. && $$ DISCUSSION... AVIATION...ADP FIRE WEATHER...  061 FXUS63 KAPX 140540 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 140 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Ongoing flooding may worsen with additional rain and storms tonight. Highest rainfall expected south of M-72. - Severe thunderstorm chances tonight and again Tuesday evening/Tuesday night with primary hazards of damaging winds and large hail. - Additional rounds of rain and mild temperatures through this week before turning cold late this weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1045 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Current forecast theme remains in good standing. Warm frontal boundary draped over the southern reaches of the region will remain the focus for convection as we head through the evening into tonight. Better instability remains to our west, with vigorous convection underway across north-central into northeast Wisconsin. Strengthening low level jet will drive an expanding instability axis into areas along and south of M-72. This particular region will be the primary focus for deeper convection, while more efficient stratiform rainfall occurs elsewhere. Severe potential trends are tending to favor southern and western reaches of the APX footprint, with primary hazards being hail and gusty winds (some of which could have an amplified impact with water-logged soils compromising root integrity on trees). The biggest story from this episode of convection is most certainly the flooding potential. Two different modes of flooding may materialize tonight. For areas north of M-32, lighter but still efficient stratiform rainfall on saturated soils and what is left of the snowpack may still lead to elevated water levels... including the highly sensitive Cheboygan River basin in far northern lower Michigan, along with the Chain of Lakes watershed in northwest lower. In general, this area could see 0.50 to 1.25" of rain by Tuesday morning. The farther south one goes (M-32 and south), the potential for repeated rounds of thunderstorms increases considerably. Torrential rainfall rates may drive a potentially higher end impact flash flooding event, as soils will fail to absorb all that water. Low lying and flood prone areas may be subject to rapid inundation from floodwaters in the event that the worst case scenario arises... which would be rainfall in excess of 2.50" in a short period of time. In addition... with the placement of this rainfall potentially encompassing large portions of the Manistee and Au Sable watersheds, river level rises may be in order again... even with these rivers already exceeding record levels. Much to monitor tonight. Rainfall looks to exit across the board into Tuesday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 450 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Pattern Synopsis: Southwest mid/upper-level flow will remain draped across the heart of the CONUS through the middle of the week as embedded waves progress trough the main flow. In turn, boundaries laid across portions of the Great Lakes and Midwest will wave north and south across the region as rounds of convection work through. A more amplified shortwave will progress overhead during the second half of the week, followed by brief ridging Friday before a strong, late- season trough digs across the Great Lakes this weekend. Forecast Details: Primary forecast concern in the short term is expected widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms tonight and their impact on ongoing flooding across much of northern Michigan. Current confidence based on latest high-res guidance and radar trends is that storms current firing across portions of Wisconsin will mature and work across the lake south of our area, working to limit higher rainfall potential to a degree across portions of our area. This is due to limited transport/support for an additional line of storms that is expected to form across southern Minnesota and track across the lake into northern Michigan later this evening and tonight. While this will provide our widespread rain/storm chances, expectation is that many areas will be limited to around 0.5-1" of additional rainfall as opposed to much higher amounts with a stronger line of storms working across our area. The exception will potentially be areas south of M-72, and especially south of M-55. Our far southern counties have the best chance of seeing rainfall amounts in excess of 1"+ with the potential for localized amounts of 2"+ should strong storms track across that area. Regardless of amounts, additional rainfall tonight will exacerbate ongoing flooding across the area -- the magnitude/widespread nature of which is impressive for the Northwoods. Specifically, the Au Sable River near Red Oak and the Manistee River near Sherman are forecast to go into major flood stage shortly this afternoon/evening. A few strong storms, especially across far southwest portions of the CWA, will be possible later this evening and tonight. The primary hazards with any strong storms will be damaging winds, large hail, and low chances for a tornado. Additional severe storms will be possible Tuesday evening into Tuesday night with similar hazards possible. Looking ahead, additional rain chances and mild temperatures will continue through the end of the week into this weekend. The aforementioned strong trough will likely tank temperatures late this weekend back down into the 30s and 40s for highs on Sunday with overnight lows in the 20s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 125 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Another round of showers/embedded thunderstorms and MVFR to IFR producing low cigs/areas of mist will continue to pivot east across the area early this morning. While showers do end this morning, low clouds and mist will take until late morning and afternoon to lift/scour out. Perhaps more MVFR producing cigs and showers/thunderstorms return again this evening. Some gusty winds and brief periods of heavy rain are possible with any stronger storms this morning. Otherwise, winds will remain light. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for MIZ016>018-020>036- 041-042-086>088-095-096-099. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...HAD DISCUSSION...HAD AVIATION...MSB  505 FXUS61 KALY 140542 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 142 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Minor update early this evening to account for low topped convective showers that have developed along a wind shift boundary south of Albany. Will mention widely scattered showers in this area until just after sunset when coverage should wane considerably. 07 && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Isolated strong to potentially severe thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening threaten to bring strong to locally damaging wind gusts that could lead to isolated downed trees and/or power lines, power outages, and property damage. 2. The threat for impactful weather is low from Wednesday through the end of the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Tomorrow will bring the potential for isolated to highly scattered strong to locally severe thunderstorms as the cold front approaches and stalls across or just north of our northern zones. Still within the warm sector of the aforementioned low, southerly to southwesterly flow will force continued moisture and warm air advection to help initiate and then maintain destabilization. Though upper-level forcing for ascent is weak, there is an embedded shortwave within the zonal flow aloft that will send a weak vorticity maximum through the region tomorrow afternoon. This should help to increase upward ascent as weak surface waves propagate off the boundary. Maximum SBCAPE values on the order of 500-1000 J/kg and isolated, local maximums up to 1500 J/kg will align with steepening mid-level lapse rates and high DCAPE to threaten strong to locally damaging wind gusts as the primary hazard resulting from any severe thunderstorms. This is ultimately what drove the Marginal Risk for severe weather across much of our area from SPC. At this point, the CAMs are still highly varied in their depictions of the coverage of severe storms given the lack of a distinct frontal passage in the lower levels and upper trough aloft. That said, the orientation of the 1 and 6 km shear vectors indicate a cellular storm mode to start with a potential merging or clustering of cells as the event draws onward. SPC HREF ensemble paintball plots seem to indicate the most agreement in individual cells occurring across portions of the Hudson Valley with potential cluster or borderline linear segments developing over the Southern Adirondacks and possibly in the Mid-Hudson Valley and western New England areas. The HRRR seems to be the most representative of this solution at this time so we erred on that element of guidance when developing the forecast. That said, potentially expansive cloud cover amid a moist environment could be a limiting factor to storms becoming severe tomorrow. KEY MESSAGE 2... Above normal temperatures are anticipated throughout much of the remainder of the week and into the weekend with additional rounds of showers and potential thunderstorms as weak shortwaves pulse along the northern periphery of a building ridge in the south. A Marginal Risk for severe weather was just introduced for portions of the Eastern Catskills for Wednesday where an isolated severe thunderstorm with strong to isolated damaging wind gusts cannot be ruled out. However, for the most part, the overall probability of impactful weather Wednesday through the weekend is low given the low severe weather threat and the low amount of rainfall that will not pose any hydro concerns. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 06z Wednesday...While VFR conditions likely prevail at ALB and POu through tonight, weakening winds at GFL, clearing and an increase in low level moisture will likely support periods of fog and IFR vis at KGFL between 08 and 13 UTC. Show MVFR vsby prevailing during this window with IFR vis in a TEMPO given lower confidence. We continue to see potential for MVFR cigs at PSF from upslope clouds from 08-12 UTC. These lower clouds and fog should dissipate early this morning with VFR prevailing thereafter through early this afternoon. Then, we will need to focus on a potential line of showers showers and thunderstorms tracking from northwest to southeast between 18 and 23 UTC. During any thunderstorm, a brief period of strong, gusty winds are possible along with IFR vis from a period of steady rain. Most of the rain/storms will dissipate by early evening with mid-level clouds lingering overnight. Outlook... Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures(Year Set): Tuesday April 14: Albany: 89(2023) Glens Falls: 84(2023) Poughkeepsie: 91(2023) Wednesday April 15: Albany: 86(2003) Glens Falls: 84(2003) Poughkeepsie: 84(2003) Thursday April 16: Albany: 91(2012) Glens Falls: 89(2002) Poughkeepsie: 91(2012) && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...12 AVIATION...31 CLIMATE...07  838 FXUS63 KTOP 140542 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1242 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Red Flag Warning in north-central KS this afternoon and evening. A very high fire danger. -Storms could impact far eastern KS Tuesday evening, bringing a threat for severe weather. -Additional storm chances occur Wednesday and again Friday, with more uncertainty on timing/location. -Cooler weather expected this weekend. Possible freeze and frost early Sunday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 140 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Early this afternoon, water vapor satellite imagery showed an upper level trough extending from the Great Basin southwest into southern CA. Broad southwesterly mid level flow of 40 to to 50 KTS was noted from the base of the Southwest US trough, extending northeast across the Plains, then northeast across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes States. A broad upper level ridge was centered off the FL coast across the eastern Gulf. At the surface, an area of low pressure was located across the northeast NE. A warm front extended east northeast across southern MN. A dryline extended west-southwest across eastern NE, to the far western counties of the CWA, into western OK. Winds ahead of the dryline were south-southwesterly at 15 to 25 MPH and gusts to 40 MPH. West of the dryline, winds veered more to the southwest and dewpoints have dropped down into the mid 30s to lower 40s. This afternoon and Tonight: The dryline will move east to a Washington, to Clay center, to Abilene line late this afternoon. Most CAM soundings do not show much of cap but weak confluence along the dryline will not be enough surface convergence to develop thunderstorms. The 3 KM NAM is showing sfc based storms developing across north central OK late this afternoon, which may develop northeastward during the evening hours but most other CAMs do not show any convection developing along the dryline across the CWA. If isolated storms were able to develop ahead of the dryline they would become severe with wind and hail as the primary hazard given MLCAPES around 2000 J/kg and 35 KTS of effective shear. The low level winds may be too veered for a tornado threat. but the probability for storms is below 14 percent across much of the eastern counties of the CWA. But I may place a 15 percent chance in Anderson county in case the 3K NAM is accurate with dryline storms building northeast up towards the southeast counties. Later shifts may need to update this forecast. Tonight, as the LLJ increases to 40 to 50 KTS across east central KS, I cannot rule out a few elevated storms across portions of east central KS but most of the CAMs do not show storms developing late Tonight into early Tuesday morning. Tuesday through Wednesday night: The upper trough across the southwest US will fill as it lifts northeast across the Plains Wednesday night. Tuesday, the dryline will move east across the central part of the CWA. There will not be as much QG forcing, since the H5 trough will still be farther west across UT/AZ. The surface shows more confluence along the dryline, so most of the area will remain dry. Most CAMs develop surface based storms across northern OK/south central KS and these storms may move northeast along across east central KS. The primary hazards will be large hail and damaging wind gusts but any discrete supercell may spawn a few tornadoes. However, the low-level wind fields looks to be veered, so the chances are much lower. Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night will provide a better chance for thunderstorms as the H5 trough shifts east into the Plains. DCVA ahead of the trough axis will provide for stronger ascent. At the surface a cold front will shift southeast into the northern counties and dryline will push east across the southwest counties. Thunderstorms will develop along the front and possibly south along the dryline. Some of these storms may be severe with the primary hazards being large hail and damaging wind gusts. Through the evening hours a line of storms will congeal along the cold front, and the threat will become isolated damaging wind gusts. The front should push southeast of the CWA during the early morning hours of Thursday. Thursday through Thursday night: Early Thursday, an upper level trough will move onshore across the Pacific northwest and dig southeast into the Great Basin. We may see a break from any thunderstorms as the Pacific front will push east into western MO. Frontolysis will occur through the afternoon hours and westerly winds will diminish and become southerly through Thursday night. Friday through Sunday: The extended range models are in fair agreement. The GFS is a bit more progressive and maybe more favorable for severe thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours.The H5 trough across the Great Basin will dig east-southeast across the central Rockies, then across the Plains Friday night into Saturday Morning. A cold front will push southeast across the northern High plains, then southeast across NE through the day. A surface low and dryline across western KS will shift east. Thunderstorms will develop across central KS through the afternoon hour. If discrete thunderstorms develop within the warm sector where there will be sufficient vertical wind shear and instability for supercell thunderstorms. The hazards from supercell thunderstorms would be large hail, damaging wind gusts, and possibly a few tornadoes. It still remains uncertain if these discrete supercells will remain south of the area Friday afternoon. Though the slightly more progressive GFS solution would provide a better chance for supercell thunderstorms developing ahead of the cold front/dryline during the afternoon hours before the storms congeal into a squall line. The slower ECMWF solution shows most storms developing ahead of the cold front during the mid and late evening hours. If a line of storms develop the the primary hazard would be isolated damaging wind gusts along the squall line. The cold front will move southeast of the CWA during the morning hours of Saturday and the rain and thunderstorms will shift east of the area. We will see a cool down by the weekend with highs in the mid 50s north to lower 60s south. Highs Sunday will be in the lower to mid 60s. Low temperatures early Sunday morning may fall below freezing across the northern counties of the CWA with mid 30s across much of the area. Therefore, a freeze warning and frost of advisory may be needed Saturday night into Sunday morning. An H5 ridge will move towards the Plains next week, which will cause temperatres to warm into the 70s on Monday and the 80s by the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1236 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Strong winds and a chance for storms are the main aviation hazards this period. South winds with gusts around 25 kts persists tonight. A 55kt LLJ also develops, which could create some LLWS despite gusty winds at the sfc. South-southwest winds increase after sunrise. Chances for TS return during the evening. Convection looks scattered, but most likely to impact terminals after 00Z Wednesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 340 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 While green up of vegetation is underway, a Red Flag Warning will continue across north-central KS, where gusty winds and low RH will combine to create extreme fire danger. Dew points are forecast to drop this afternoon in this area as a dryline moves east. Minimum RH behind the dryline could quickly fall to around 20 percent. South-southwest winds will be sustained at 15 to 20 mph with gusts as high as 30 mph throughout the afternoon. Similar conditions will be in place behind the dryline (mainly in central KS) on Tuesday, with minimum RH between 20 and 25 percent and continued gusty south-southwest winds. Fire headlines are not currently anticipated Tuesday. However, at this time the Range Land Fire Index has only a very high fire danger for north central KS. All Burning should be postponed through midweek. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Gargan AVIATION...Teefey FIRE WEATHER...Gargan/Teefey  697 FXUS64 KMAF 140542 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1242 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1229 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Low to medium shower and thunderstorm chances (20-40%) Tuesday across the far eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. Damaging winds and large hail remain the primary hazards for the strongest storms. - Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions are expected across southeast New Mexico, the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains, and portions of far west Texas through Friday. - Very windy conditions expected in the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains through Tuesday evening. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Tuesday night) Issued at 252 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A broad dryline has developed this afternoon across the eastern Permian Basin. Convergence and instability along this feature is causing a few storms to develop with the help of daytime heating. Shear is marginal but we could see a storm or two become severe with large hail and strong winds the main threats. The dryline retreats back west overnight before surging back east tomorrow in a near carbon copy of what is happening today. Additional lift from an upper trough and jet stream will increase the storm coverage and PoPs increase to 40 to 50 percent in the far eastern counties. Highs will be similar to today reaching the 80s for most locations which is pretty typical for April. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 252 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Westerly flow then dominates for the middle and end of the week, keeping the dryline just far enough east that rain chances should generally remain in the Big Country and Hill Country of central and west-central Texas. Cannot rule out a rogue shower from Big Lake to Snyder but rainfall amounts will be very little. Highs should hold in the 80s to lower 90s throughout this week since there are no upper features moving across the area to provide any change. Friday an upper level trough moves out of the intermountain west and into the Great Plains. Unfortunately the best lift will be north of the area and this system will provide more wind than anything else. It is possible that pressure falls ahead of the trough could hold the dryline far enough west that some of the eastern counties in our CWA could see some rain chances but most of the area will be dry, windy, and quite possibly dusty. The trough moves east of the area and a cold front moves through Saturday bringing quite pleasant temperatures for the weekend with slightly below normal highs in the 70s. Hennig && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions look to prevail through the period. Southerly to southeasterly winds will bring in moisture overnight which may cause low clouds (MVFR) to develop near MAF and FST terminals. There is very low confidence in this occurring, thus, left the lower CIGs out. Strong to breezy southerly and southwesterly winds are expected late this morning throughout the afternoon across all terminals. Rain/storm chances increase late this afternoon into the evening hours especially across FST and MAF sites, however, high uncertainty remains how far west storms will form at the moment. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 252 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Have left the Tuesday Fire Weather Watch in effect for now and will let one more shift look at conditions before making a final decision. At this time, it appears minimum afternoon humidities will be a little to high to warrant a Red Flag Warning but again will wait 12 hours to see if models drop them any. A dryline will push east into the Permian Basin daily bringing elevated fire weather conditions to portions of southeastern New Mexico and the Permian Basin, but the day to watch is Friday. An upper low moving into the Great Plains will bring windy and dry conditions and Friday afternoon should see critical fire weather conditions across a good portion of the area. The limiting factor could be fuel moisture in the eastern basin and lower Trans Pecos. Fire fighters should monitor Friday as the biggest day of concern. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 85 62 86 54 / 30 50 20 0 Carlsbad 85 54 81 49 / 10 10 0 0 Dryden 83 63 85 62 / 40 50 20 10 Fort Stockton 87 62 86 56 / 20 30 10 10 Guadalupe Pass 74 52 71 51 / 10 10 0 0 Hobbs 84 54 81 49 / 10 20 0 0 Marfa 80 49 78 43 / 10 20 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 86 62 84 56 / 20 40 10 0 Odessa 86 62 84 55 / 20 40 10 0 Wink 87 60 84 50 / 10 20 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Wind Watch from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning through this evening for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet- Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. NM...High Wind Watch from 9 AM MDT Tuesday through Tuesday evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for Chaves Plains-Lea. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...11  422 FXUS63 KARX 140542 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 1242 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe thunderstorms are expected (>70% chance) across southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin this afternoon and evening. Large hail of 2+ inches, damaging winds of 60-70mph, and heavy rainfall of 1-3" are all possible from these storms. There is narrow window of opportunity for a tornado threat, but if this threat is realized, a stronger tornado (EF2+) cannot be ruled out. - Additional severe storms are likely over northeastern Iowa and southwestern Wisconsin Tuesday afternoon. Large hail of 2+ inches will be the biggest risk with these storms, but wind and heavy rain hazards remain on the table. Where exactly storms form will be dependent on how storms today evolve. - Additional severe weather is possible both Wednesday and Friday. Details will become more clear as we get closer. - Warm week ahead with high temperatures in the upper 60s to upper 70s, cooling down for the upcoming weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1237 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Today: Severe Weather This Afternoon and Evening A surface low sitting over northeast Nebraska continues to make its way northeastward towards northern and eventually northeast Iowa. The low-level jet begins to increase by mid afternoon and reaches its strongest point during the evening with winds of 35 to 45 kts at 850 mb. Theta-e advection increases this afternoon, helping to reduce or knock out any remaining EML by the mid afternoon. This will result in rapid convective initiation along and north of the I- 90 corridor. Recent model trends have also started to show some convective initiation starting earlier this afternoon in northeast Iowa and far southwest Wisconsin. This will be something to monitor to see how it affects the rest of the afternoon. Discrete supercells look to be the dominant storm mode as the event gets underway. With very high mid-level lapse rates of 7.5 to 8.5 C/km and plenty of MUCAPE (2000 to 3000 J/kg), as well as curved and elongated hodographs, large to very large hail will be the primary threat with these initial storms. Right now, these storms appear to be strongest around the I-94 corridor in western Wisconsin and eastern Minnesota. There could always be some sort of wiggle with where exactly these storms end up as where these storms occur will be important for the next round of storms. Once these storms begin to congeal into a line, then the hail threat would diminish, however a wind threat would then be the primary threat. Looking at the tornado risk, the main initial risk will be right along the warm front, however given the favorable shear with a couple counties of the warm front, the tornado threat does remain for those locations, especially if cell mergers or other interactions occur. The early afternoon convection could have a tornado threat too as it rides along an elevated warm front. The one caveat to this is that there remains quite a bit of CIN to overcome to make these storms surface based, therefore the primary risk would be hail with these storms. For the afternoon and early evening, if storms can attach themselves to the warm front and have a somewhat deviant eastward storm motion. With the amount of low level SRH available, these right moving supercells would have the best chance at ingesting the most SRH. Even further south of the warm front provides a decent tornado potential given that by the mid afternoon, there will be little to CIN needed to overcome so any boundary or perturbation that kicks off a supercell would also have a tornado potential. Lastly, as the supercells congeal into a line and shift southeastward across portions of northeast Iowa, southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin the surface low moves up behind this line. This extra lift with a close to perpendicular 0-3km shear vector would indicate a QLCS tornado potential as this line propagates through the forecast area. In addition to this tornado threat, the wind threat would increase as the cold pools begin to form along the line. Make sure to stay tuned as we will have AFD updates during the afternoon and evening. With these repeated rounds of storms, there is also a heavy rain potential. PWATs of 1 to 1.3" are in the 99th percentile based on the NAEFS. This means that there will be plenty of potential moisture for storms to use up. The 12Z HREF LPMM shows a wide swath of 1 to 3" across western Wisconsin from I-94 down towards the I-90 corridor. With this being a convective nature compared to stratiform, there will be potential for the heavy rain corridor to shift. As a result we have issued a Flood Watch for most of western and central Wisconsin given that soils are saturated from the recent and that the 6 hour flash flood guidance from the NCRFC is roughly 2 to 3.5" across the watch area. Tuesday: Severe Weather Potential for Northeast Iowa and Southwest Wisconsin Storms from Monday will be out of the local area by early Tuesday morning. An upper level wave moves over the Upper Midwest and in conjunction with the cold pools from overnight, the moisture gets pushed southeastward setting up a moisture axis in far southwest Wisconsin and into northeast Iowa. The main uncertainty for Tuesday is how far south does the outflow from todays storm reach and if the boundary can shift northward at all. The 15Z RAP shows this via the theta-e advection where the boundary shifts into Grant county and gets pushed slightly further north into Crawford and Richland counties in Wisconsin and Allamakee, Clayton, Fayette counties in Iowa. Similar to today, the mid level lapse rates for Tuesday remain high, around 7.5 to 8.0 C/km, and there will be even more shear than today due to the upper level wave moving overhead. This would indicate a large hail risk being the primary threat. That being said, with the amount of low level SRH available, if a right moving deviant supercell can get going, this will provide a tornado risk. As cold pools develop from the storms in northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin, this would push any severe threat out of the forecast area by the middle of the evening. Wednesday-The Weekend: Warm Week with Multiple Storm Chances Heading into Wednesday, an upper level trough shifts over the central Plains and the Upper Midwest. There will be some morning convection in Iowa and into far southwestern Wisconsin. This may inhibit any severe potential, however a surface low shifts into central and into northern Iowa by the evening providing more lift as theta-e advection increases during the day. Based on the NAM and GFS there is a potential triple point that sets up in northeast Iowa, far southeast Minnesota, and southwest Wisconsin that would introduce a tornado threat near this occlusion. Other than this threat, there will also a be damaging wind and hail threat across the aforementioned areas. Thursday looks to be dry as we begin to transition back to southwest flow by late Thursday evening. The low-level jet increases during Friday afternoon helping to bring in higher PWATs. Based on the NAEFS, the PWATs for Friday are already in the 90th percentile for this time of year. Another severe weather chance is possible as we have this increased moisture ahead of a cold front that moves through the area late Friday night. Temperatures through the week will remain in the 60s and 70s until Saturday. Plenty of stormy weather is expected this week so make sure to stay tuned for further updates regarding todays severe weather threat as we will have updated discussions throughout the afternoon and evening highlighting any changes to the forecast. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1226 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The main line of storms through Monday evening covers the periphery of the local forecast area from northeast Iowa into southwest and central Wisconsin at 14.06Z TAF issuance. A narrow line of storms persists shifting east behind this main line, progressing just south of KRST TAF site towards KLSE TAF site. Resultant increase in TSRA duration at KLSE given ongoing observations. Subsequent low level saturation causes LIFR-VLIFR ceilings/visibilities with FG/BR into Tuesday morning. As the warm, moist air returns through late Tuesday morning, thunderstorm chances return from southwest to northeast primarily affecting smaller airports from northeast Iowa into southwest Wisconsin. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1226 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Anomalous moisture of the last couple days has resulted in flash flooding where strongest storms result in heavy rainfall. Additional river rises have prompted opening of river gates given expected additional daily precipitation. Highest observations from Monday's storms seen in a band from southeast Minnesota through western and central Wisconsin of 2"+. Therefore, primary area of concern for subsequent flooding would be in these areas should storms progresses as far north Tuesday. Confidence in rainfall reaching farther north into central Wisconsin Wednesday and Friday keeps heightened awareness for flooding concerns. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for WIZ041>044-053-055. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cecava AVIATION...JAR HYDROLOGY...JAR  289 FXUS61 KBGM 140543 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 143 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Added more chances of precipitation for this morning into late morning just in case the line of showers and thunderstorms move through earlier in the day. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Threat for strong to severe thunderstorms today and tomorrow, with isolated hail and strong wind gusts possible along with heavy rain. 2) The warm pattern through the week will break down this weekend and be replaced by much colder air late in the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... The next couple of days will be warm and humid for this time of the year with 30+ knots of shear so there will be chances for some stronger thunderstorms today and tomorrow. The synoptic forcing today is very week with just a subtle 500 mb shortwave passing through so that likely will not be the main driver of the convection but will help supply the shear (35-45 knots) and steeper mid level lapse rates of around 7 C/km. Looking at what happened today in the plains, there was a cluster of supercells that developed in NW Kansas that has developed into an MCS early this morning. This was something that no models had today and even the 0Z models have struggled to handle its evolution. Given that these storms are associated with the mid level wave passing through today, it leads to less confidence in how the evolution of the storms will be today. the HRRR has trended towards an earlier line as the subsequent runs after the 0Z run have slowly started to resolve the MCS a bit better. If this does end up being the case, we may have a line of thunderstorms move through in the morning which would occur before the best CAPE development and would help stabilize the atmosphere leading to a lower end potential. Given the shear in place, a few isolated strong gusts to 50 or 60 mph would be possible with the late morning line of storms. It is possible that the rain moves through early enough for some destabilization in the mid to late afternoon though by then, the steeper mid level lapse rates are moving east. Tomorrow is unfortunately a similar story as today in regards to how the storms may evolve. The synoptic forcing is once again weak with the primary driver of the mid level shortwave is going to be the development of MCS's in the plains this afternoon and overnight. Still, models are in better agreement that there will be more CAPE tomorrow (>1000J/kg of surface cape) and better shear (>40 knots of 0-6 km shear) so if the timing of the mid level wave that triggers the storms is early to mid afternoon, strong thunderstorms are likely and isolated supercells are possible. We will still be in this warm SW flow pattern with frequent shortwaves on Thursday. Models do have more showers and better forcing so that looks to limit CAPE but still will need to be watched with 40+ knots of shear still present. KEY MESSAGE 2... While this warm, early summer like pattern persist through the first half of the weekend, Sunday into early next week has continued to trend cooler. High latitude blocking in Greenland will help a deep late season trough to dig into the Northeast US. The GFS and AIGFS both are bringing 516 to 520 dm 500 mb heights which is well below climatology for mid to late April. 850 mb temperatures also have a high probability of <-5C temperatures for Monday into Tuesday next week, with probabilities >80% for the region and >95% for CNY and north. With the Great Lakes likely warming up some over the rest of this week, it is possible they would be warm enough to generate lake effect snow with this pattern. -10C 850 mb temperature probabilities are even getting to near 50% for the Southern Tier and north and if that occurs, our day time highs may stay in the 30s to low 40s early next week. As of now, the pattern with the cold is looking dry (outside of lake effect) so despite the cold, a widespread snow event is unlikely at this time. There is still time for the pattern to change as the evolution of the Greenland blocking pattern is all over the place but a cooler stretch of weather is likely, just how cold will it get is uncertain. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions and isolated rain showers will persist for a few more hours across the area. Restrictions are not expected but a brief, heavy shower hitting a terminal head on may drop visby down to MVFR for a very brief period. The showers are too small and isolated to have any confidence including them in the TAFs for this evening. Winds will become light and variable to calm as the evening progresses. This will allow for some patchy fog to develop across the area. Guidance is showing RME and SYR having a good chance at IFR and below restrictions tonight, and with the rain showers occurring in the area plus the expected westerly winds tonight that will push lake moisture into the area, confidence in these restrictions occurring is high. There are signals for fog developing at all our other terminals, but confidence is not high. BGM may be able to see some IFR restrictions tonight after it rained at the terminal this evening and winds are expected to become southerly, which is upslope flow that could help produce IFR at the terminal for a few hours. Too many other variables are uncertain at this time to put IFR at ELM/ITH/AVP. There is a chance for thunderstorms to develop in the afternoon, but how a MCS evolves over the upper midwest tonight and travels east into our area tomorrow morning will impact the thunder chances. A few hours of PROB30 covers the thunder chances across CNY in the afternoon for now with too much uncertainty at this time for anything more definitive. Outlook: Tuesday evening through Thursday...Restrictions possible from showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Friday...Mainly VFR; low chance for lingering showers and restrictions. Saturday...Additional restrictions look to arrive along with showers and storms late in the day Saturday. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AJG AVIATION...BJT  280 FXUS64 KMOB 140543 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1243 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1243 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Moderate to extreme drought, with little to no rain over the next 7 days, will exacerbate wildfire activity. - Patchy to areas of fog development, some of which could be dense, is possible over the next few nights. - A moderate rip current risk is expected for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches through midweek. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1243 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Light southerly surface winds will occur through the week as a surface ridge remains intact across the southeast states and much of the Gulf. Atmospheric moisture will remain very low despite the southerly winds off the Gulf with PWATs generally ranging from one- half to eight-tenths of an inch. We should see a slight uptick in moisture on Thursday with PWATs nearing one inch as a shortwave moves east across the Tennessee River Valley, but no rain is expected for our area due to a lack of forcing and deep moisture. In fact, the atmosphere above 810mb remains impressively dry due to strong subsidence under the upper ridge that has gripped our region. The next large upper trough will exit the Rockies on Friday and move over the Great Plains to the Mississippi River by week's end. There are no timing differences between the ECMWF and GFS at this time, but the ECMWF does have a higher amplified trough over the eastern CONUS on Sunday compared to the GFS, with the base further south. We could see some isolated to low-end scattered showers and perhaps a storm or two Saturday night into Sunday as a cold front associated with the upper trough passes through our area. Most of this precipitation will likely be confined to areas northwest of I-65 as the line is expected to quickly dissipate. The light southerly wind flow mentioned earlier persisting all week does maintain some boundary-layer moisture across our area that should result in patchy to areas of late night/early morning fog over the course of the week. Visibilities are expected to lower to between 1 to 3 miles across much of the area late overnight into early morning, with patchy dense fog not being ruled out. Due to low confidence in the specific locations potentially being impacted by areas of dense fog, we will just need to see how thing unfold before needing any Dense Fog Advisories. High temperatures inland will reach the middle 80s today through Thursday and likely reach the upper 80s on Friday and Saturday. These highs will be about 5 to 10 degrees above normal today through Thursday and 7 to 12 degrees above normal on Friday and Saturday. Lows inland will be in the middle 50s to around 60 degrees tonight and in the upper 50s to lower 60s Wednesday night through the remainder of the week. Coastal lows will range from 60 to 65 degrees tonight and then in the middle 60s through the remainder of the week. Cooler temperatures will occur early next week behind the frontal passage with highs on Sunday in the middle 70s to lower 80s, with lows Sunday night dipping into the upper 40s to middle 50s. Beach Forecast: A Moderate Risk of rip currents is expected to continue through Friday. /22 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1243 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions will gradually give way to IFR and eventually LIFR conditions mainly north of I-10. LIFR and even some local VLIFR visbys will be possible just prior to daybreak with coastal areas remaining at VFR to MVFR. Conditions will quickly return to areawide VFR by mid morning. Winds will remain light out of the south becoming light and variable overnight. BB-8 && .MARINE... Issued at 104 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow is expected through the forecast. /16 && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 104 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Looking at fire weather concerns over the forecast area, with drought conditions, and dry fuels, a Moderate Risk of a Significant Fire Potential is in effect through the week. Winds remain light enough and afternoon relative humidity values a bit too moist to hoist a by the criteria Red Flag Watch/Warning at this time for the next few days. Still, playing this by ear. /16 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 82 61 83 64 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 79 63 79 65 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 77 65 77 66 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 87 55 87 56 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 86 57 86 61 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 85 56 85 59 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 85 57 86 56 / 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$  505 FXUS62 KRAH 140544 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 144 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 140 AM Tuesday... * Increased Fire Danger Statement for the western Piedmont and Sandhills through 800 PM today. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 144 AM Tuesday... 1) Dry fuels combined with lower humidity and near record heat will promote fire weather concerns through the end of the week. 2) A highly anomalous mid-level ridge will persist over the southeastern United States through late week, supporting an early- season heat wave with temperatures 15–20F or more above climatology. 3) Late-weekend pattern transition possible with low-end rain chances on Sunday with fropa...followed by cooler temps. && .DISCUSSION... As of 144 AM Tuesday... KEY MESSAGE 1... Dry fuels combined with lower humidity and near record heat will promote fire weather concerns through the end of the week. No changes to the week as far as highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and no rainfall through Saturday. The NC Forest Service has requested additional messaging along with their current state-wide burn ban. We issued an Increased Fire Danger Statement (IFD) the western Piedmont/Sandhills through 800 PM today. More statements will be needed Wednesday and beyond. KEY MESSAGE 2... A highly anomalous mid-level ridge will persist over the southeastern United States through late week, supporting an early-season heat wave with temperatures 15–20F or more above climatology. A highly anomalous mid-level ridge will persist over the southeastern United States through late week, supporting record or near-record heat across central North Carolina. Both the GFS and ECMWF deterministic and ensemble guidance remain in strong agreement depicting a robust 500-mb ridge centered over the Southeast and Mid- Atlantic. During this period, H8 temps are progged in the 15-17C range along with deep-layer thickness values approaching summer-like magnitudes. As a result, high temps will reach the upper 80s to lower 90s basically Wednesday through Friday, with the typically warmer locations southeast of RDU possibly seeing mid 90s. These values are 20F degrees or more above mid-April normals. Hazards associated with this heat may include early-season heat stress (especially vulnerable populations) due to limited acclimatization. See the climate section below for more details about the records that may be threatened with this heat wave. Key message 3...Late-weekend pattern transition possible with low- end rain chances on Sunday with fropa...followed by cooler temps. The ridge will gradually weaken and shift east over the weekend as a trough advances from the Plains. A cold frontal passage is expected on Sunday which may result in low-end rain chances. Behind the front, temps will trend closer to seasonal normals (low-mid 70s) early next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 140 AM Tuesday... Sub-tropical high pressure extending across the South Atlantic states will favor a high probability of VFR conditions and SSW surface winds that will strengthen and become at least occasionally gusty with daytime heating again today 10-20kt. Outlook: Sub-tropical high pressure will favor warm, dry, and VFR conditions in cntl NC through Sat. && .CLIMATE... All-Time Records for April KGSO: 95 on 4/28/1915 KRDU: 95 on 4/23/1980 and 4/28/1896 KFAY: 96 on 4/12/1930 Record High Temperatures: April 14: KGSO: 90/1922 KRDU: 91/1941 KFAY: 93/1922 April 15: KGSO: 90/2006 KRDU: 92/1941 KFAY: 95/2006 April 16: KGSO: 88/2002 KRDU: 92/1941 KFAY: 94/2006 April 17: KGSO: 90/1967 KRDU: 93/1896 KFAY: 92/1941 April 18: KGSO: 90/1976 KRDU: 95/1896 KFAY: 93/1941 Record High Minimum Temperatures: April 15: KGSO: 65/2006 KRDU: 64/1993 April 16: KGSO: 66/2006 KRDU: 64/1912 KFAY: 69/1934 April 17: KGSO: 63/2002 KRDU: 67/1896 KFAY: 66/1921 April 18: KGSO: 66/1909 KRDU: 63/1941 KFAY: 67/2002 April 19: KRDU: 67/1896 KFAY: 67/2002 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Badgett/NP AVIATION...Badgett/MWS CLIMATE...RAH  895 FXUS65 KGJT 140544 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1144 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler, wetter weather settles in today through Wednesday morning. Sloppy travel conditions are expected above 9,000 feet. - Sub-freezing temperatures are expected for some valleys early Wednesday morning. A Freeze Watch is in effect for the susceptible areas. - After a brief mid-week warm up, colder and unsettled weather returns to the region Thursday night into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1105 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Models are in good agreement with each other and with satellite imagery for the most part. One notable difference is that the satellite imagery shows the shortwave over southeastern Idaho to be deeper, down into the H500 and even H700 levels, and a more wrapped up low than the open wave depicted in the models. Light isolated to scattered showers are increasing in coverage as they move through eastern Utah and Western Colorado. To the west over western Utah, closer to the low, coverage is more widespread with embedded isolated thunderstorms. Look for this activity to start moving into our region around midnight and increasing through the overnight as showers and thunderstorms spread northeast across region. With the low tracking to the northeast across the region through the morning hours, pushing east of the Divide in the afternoon, showers and thunderstorms will diminish through the afternoon and evening with only a few lingering showers mostly through the central Colorado mountains overnight into Wednesday. There is no real defined front with this system, but with cold air advection aloft widespread precipitation, temperatures will cool about ten degrees from Monday's highs, or to five to ten degrees below normal for mid April. With skies clearing out overnight Tuesday, temperatures in many of the lower valleys will drop below the freezing mark. Because there is still uncertainty with the morning low, continued the Freeze Watch across eastern Utah and Western Colorado late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. COLDER SYSTEM FRIDAY AND COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER BEYOND: Wednesday and Thursday will bring a brief warm up, but Thursday will see another round of gusty winds ahead of the next system, another low pressure system that drops in from the Pacific Northwest. This next system looks to have a strong cold front associated with it with temperatures falling 15 to 25 degrees behind the front leading to a hard freeze possible Saturday morning. It's too soon to say how much snow this system will produce, but snow may drop into the lower valleys behind the front. Stay tuned through the next few day as we sort this out. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1144 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Scattered to widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms will lead to a complex forecast over the next 18 to 24 hours. Currently most areas are VFR/ILS but as the main storm approaches through the morning hours expect conditions to deteriorate with temporary to PROB30 chances of MVFR and possibly IFR conditions as heavier shower and lower clouds move through. Things do not look to begin to improve until mid to late afternoon with a return to VFR prevailing at most TAF sites again by 15/00Z. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning for COZ001-002-007-008-011-020>023. UT...Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning for UTZ024. && $$ DISCUSSION...DB AVIATION...TGJT  983 FXUS61 KRNK 140545 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 145 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation discussion updated. Temperatures were tweaked to increase the diurnal range given from the model guidance due to dry air in place. Record temperatures are possible for the next three days. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A strong upper level ridge will bring abnormal warmth for the next few days with record heat possible. Some relief from the heat and dryness may come from a cold front by Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: A strong upper level ridge will bring abnormal warmth for the next few days with record heat possible. Some relief from the heat and dryness may come from a cold front by Sunday. An anomalously strong 590 dam upper level ridge centered over Florida combined with high pressure offshore should provide ample warm air advection from a southwest flow. Temperatures should jump 15 to 25 degrees above normal for the middle of April during today through Thursday. It will feel more like summer than spring as record highs and record high minimums, or warmest lows, will be challenged during this timeframe. Make sure to stay hydrated and find shade if outside for long periods. See the Climate section below for more information on the records in jeopardy. With the unusual warmth and ongoing drought conditions expected for the remainder of this week, the fire weather risk continues to rise. A fire danger statement is already in effect for portions of the North Carolina Piedmont today. Relative humidities should fall towards 20 to 30 percent over the next few afternoons, especially east of the Blue Ridge. See the Fire Weather section below for more details. Only small teases of moisture from frontal boundaries passing to the north may bring a chance of showers later this afternoon and again by Thursday night across the mountains. However, confidence remains low on any activity putting a dent into the climbing rainfall deficits. All locations are two to three inches below normal for rain since the beginning of March. By Sunday, a stronger cold front may arrive from the west. Rainfall amounts do not look too impressive from this frontal passage, but it is the next best opportunity for any meaningful relief. The northwest flow behind this front should push temperatures back closer to normal by Monday. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions through the TAF period. Light and variable winds this morning will remain WSW today and increase to 7 to 10 knots with gusts up to 20 kts after noon. Winds trend quickly down to light and variable or calm again tonight. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Mainly dry with VFR conditions throughout the rest of the week. Winds will generally be out of the southwest, and gusts up to 20 knots are possible each afternoon as the boundary layer warms and mixes. The only chances of showers that could temporarily halt the ongoing dry spell occur during the afternoons across the mountains. These will be very isolated and will fade with loss of daytime heating. && .FIRE WEATHER... Unusually warm and dry conditions will take place with record heat possible over the next three days. Rainfall chances appear low and remain confined to the mountains, which will only prolong the ongoing drought. Relative humidities will fall towards 20 to 30 percent for the next few afternoons, especially east of the Blue Ridge. Some southern-facing slopes may have relative humidities drop below 20 percent with afternoon sunshine and gusty winds due to an unstable atmosphere from the increasing heat. These aforementioned conditions will escalate fire danger across the entire region. The anomalous heat and low humidity combined with daytime gusts will only make fire containment increasingly difficult throughout the rest of this week. A fire danger statement is already in effect for portions of the North Carolina Piedmont today. The next notable chance for any widespread wetting rainfall may not come until Sunday when a cold front arrives to bring some relief. && .CLIMATE... The following record high maximums and record high minimums, or warmest lows, are in jeopardy due to the abnormal warmth over the next three days: Today: Station Hi Max T Hi Min T Roanoke 91 in 1945 67 in 1922 Lynchburg 91 in 1941 63 in 2014 Danville 91 in 1945 75 in 1922 Bluefield 83 in 1930 64 in 1977 Blacksburg 82 in 1941 60 in 1941 Wednesday: Station Hi Max T Hi Min T Roanoke 89 in 1936 67 in 2024 Lynchburg 89 in 1941 65 in 1896 Danville 91 in 2006 68 in 1922 Bluefield 89 in 1922 60 in 2006 Blacksburg 83 in 1941 57 in 1954 Thursday: Station Hi Max T Hi Min T Roanoke 90 in 2002 61 in 2017 Lynchburg 91 in 2002 65 in 1912 Danville 92 in 2002 64 in 1916 Bluefield 81 in 2012 66 in 2006 Blacksburg 82 in 1941 61 in 1941 && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...PW AVIATION...SH FIRE WEATHER...PW CLIMATE...PW/SH  399 FXUS66 KPDT 140545 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 1045 PM PDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy to windy today. - Winter weather and wind returns late Tuesday. Winter weather headlines have been issued for the Cascades. - Near- to sub-freezing morning lows Thursday and Friday for the lowlands. && .DISCUSSION... A deformation band brought copious precipitation to northeast Oregon and southeast Washington late yesterday into this morning. Satellite shows the upper low responsible for the wet weather has tracked east into the Rockies. In its wake, skies have partially cleared, and strong cross-Cascade pressure gradients (~9-11 mb difference between PDX and GEG) in tandem with strong cold air advection (CAA) have driven widespread breezy to windy westerly winds through the Cascade gaps and into the Columbia Basin. Strongest winds have been noted through the exit region of the eastern Columbia River Gorge, lower Columbia Basin of Oregon, Kittitas Valley, and foothills of the northern Blue Mountains of Oregon. Previously, anticipated the winds to slacken by late morning to early afternoon, so opted to highlight the winds with Special Weather Statements. In hindsight, Wind Advisories would have been justified as numerous sites such as PDT, HRI, and ELN have either flirted with or maintained advisory-level sustained winds (30 mph) or gusts (45 mph) into the afternoon hours. Either way, winds should weaken by tonight as the shortwave that is tracking overhead pushes east and pressure gradients slacken. The break in significant weather will be short-lived as another strong weather system is expected (95 percent confidence) to arrive late Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon. Ensemble and deterministic NWP guidance are in excellent agreement that this system, the shortwave trough currently present in the Gulf of Alaska, will drop southeast into the Pacific Northwest with its attendant cold front expected (90 percent confidence) to lower snow levels below mountain pass levels by later Tuesday morning (Washington Cascades) through Tuesday afternoon (Oregon Cascades). Winter weather headlines have been issued for moderate to heavy snowfall for the Cascades. Confidence is high (80 percent) in 4-8 inches of snowfall for the Washington Cascades with 6-12 inches for the Oregon Cascades, locally higher along the crests. The bulk of the snowfall will likely (80 percent confidence) end through Wednesday morning or early afternoon as the front sags southeast, but upslope snow showers will persist through Wednesday night or Thursday morning as the upper low moves overhead. Precipitation for non-mountain areas will be mostly rain below 1500-2000 feet, though uncertainty exists in snowfall between 2000 and 4000 feet. Much of this uncertainty is driven by how long the frontal band lingers over the lowlands, and also in post-frontal snow showers. Widespread breezy to windy southwest winds are expected Tuesday afternoon and night in advance of the cold frontal passage. By Wednesday afternoon, winds will become westerly to northwesterly in the wake of the front and remain diurnally breezy to windy through Thursday. Probabilities of exceeding advisory levels is widely varying (30-80 percent), highest for wind-prone locations of the foothills of the Blue Mountains and north-central Oregon Tuesday then the Kittitas Valley for Wednesday and Thursday. Near- to below-freezing morning temperatures are forecast for many lowland areas Thursday and Friday, just in time for growing season. NBM calibrated probabilities suggest medium-high chances (60-90 percent) of freezing temperatures for the Yakima and Kittitas valleys, medium probabilities (30-70 percent) along the foothills of the Blue Mountains, and low-medium (20-40 percent) for the lowest elevations including the eastern Columbia River Gorge and lower Columbia Basin. An upper-level ridge will likely (80 percent confidence) build into the Pacific Northwest Friday into the weekend, yielding lighter winds and mostly dry conditions. By Sunday, uncertainty in the 500-hPa pattern grows, but some flavor of a 500-hPa closed low or trough is advertised by ensemble clusters. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions continue for the TAF sites. Will see precipitation occur for all TAF sites by the afternoon hours along with some breezy to locally windy conditions. Winds could gust up to 35 mph, especially in the Columbia Basin sites including the DLS. Temporary sub-VFR conditions are possible to develop (5-15 percent chance) if more moderate showers develop over TAF areas, lowering VIS and/or CIGs. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 57 36 58 41 / 50 0 10 60 ALW 58 40 58 42 / 80 10 20 80 PSC 67 40 61 44 / 20 0 20 40 YKM 63 35 58 39 / 10 0 20 60 HRI 62 38 60 42 / 10 0 10 40 ELN 56 35 51 32 / 10 0 40 70 RDM 54 26 56 35 / 20 0 10 50 LGD 53 32 56 39 / 90 20 10 90 GCD 52 30 58 38 / 80 30 10 70 DLS 60 41 58 41 / 10 10 40 80 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM Tuesday to 11 PM PDT Wednesday for WAZ030. Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 11 PM PDT Wednesday for WAZ522. OR...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM Tuesday to 11 PM PDT Wednesday for ORZ502. Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM Tuesday to 5 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ509. && $$ DISCUSSION...86 AVIATION...95  794 FXUS63 KIND 140546 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 146 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Active pattern this week with near daily chances for showers and storms. - Severe weather is a possibility through Tuesday focused mainly across the northwest half of central Indiana. Additional threats for strong to severe storms Wednesday and Saturday. - Warm temperatures expected through Saturday with multiple days in the lower to mid 80s. Record temperatures are possible. && .DISCUSSION (Today through Sunday)... Issued at 258 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Rest of This Afternoon into This Evening... An upper wave, moving in the southwest flow aloft, is generating showers and thunderstorms across Illinois this afternoon. Most if not all of these will remain west of central Indiana. However, still cant rule out a few showers or storms popping up in the unstable atmosphere. Storms across the far northern forecast area could be strong to severe. Overnight tonight through Tuesday night... Thunderstorms generated near the surface front to the north of the area will move southeast overnight into Tuesday morning. Some of these may survive into central Indiana, especially the northeast half of the area. Additional scattered convection may develop Tuesday afternoon, especially north closer to the front. Tuesday night, similar to tonight, convection that develops well north of the could move southeast into the area. Some of the convection from Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night could be severe, mainly across the northern half of the forecast area. Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary threats. Lows tonight in the middle to upper 60s will be near record high minimum temperatures. Highs on Tuesday will depend on any rain as well as sky cover. Drier conditions and lower sky cover could lead to near record highs in the middle 80s, but more rain/sky cover could limit highs to near 80. Wednesday through Saturday... The front will be closer to but still north of the area on Wednesday. With southwest flow continuing aloft, any upper impulse moving through the flow will have the potential to generate scattered convection in an unstable atmosphere. Convection generated by the front to the north could also impact the northern forecast area. Isolated strong to severe convection is possible given expected parameters. Temperatures on Wednesday will depend on sky cover and rain coverage, but for now will go with upper 70s north to middle 80s south. Wednesday night into Thursday, an upper trough will move into the area, providing better forcing. The surface front could move into the area, but there is a decent amount of uncertainty on this. (The NAMs solution of moving the front completely through looks overdone). Will have likely or higher category PoPs all areas at some point Wednesday night into Thursday. Brief upper ridging looks to move in on Friday, providing a dry and warm day. A larger upper trough will move in on Saturday and bring a strong cold front through the area. This will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms. Strong storms are possible, depending on the timing of the front. Sunday and Monday... High pressure will build in and provide quiet weather. Highs will be below normal, with the coldest readings Saturday in the 50s. Lows in the middle to upper 30s will occur Saturday night, so will have to watch for the potential for frost if temperatures trend cooler. && .AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 146 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Impacts: - Wind gusts up to 25 to 35kts likely through the period - Scattered convection may impact sites 13-16z then again 21z-03z. Discussion: Satellite imagery and observations show Central Indiana firmly within the warm sector of an elongated area of low pressure in the Central Plains. Low level south-southwesterly flow will continue through the period with gusts of 25-35 kts to continue. Latest IND ACARs sounding still shows a well mixed boundary layer under an inversion at almost 2km agl. This is a fairly deep mixed layer for the overnight hours. With a strengthening nocturnal low level jet overhead, expect these stronger gusts at or above 35 kts to persist into the mid to late morning hours, diminishing some into the 20-25 kt range by the afternoon as the LLJ weakens. Lower confidence forecast regarding convection in this type of pattern as short term hi-res guidance struggles to handle these overnight storm complexes. Watching a complex in both Missouri and Wisconsin which could impact Central Indiana in the 12-16z timeframe. The Missouri complex should weaken as it tracks east, however there's a good possibility that the complex of storms entering Northern Illinois clips portions of Central Indiana later this morning as the atmosphere is conducive for convective maintenance into the area. Best threat for any morning storms would be at KLAF and KIND and points northeast. Confidence is only marginal in this threat, but high enough to include a Prob30 group for showers. Leftover boundaries later this afternoon within a very unstable and moist airmass should result in some afternoon convective development within Central Indiana, mostly likely along and north of I-70 in the 21z-03z timeframe. These storms would have the potential to be severe if they get going. Low confidence in finer details in this pattern. Will be able to determine where the highest threat is later this afternoon once boundaries for storms actually develop. Even when storms do develop, they may be widely scattered, but still think the threat is high enough to include a Prob30 group for storms this evening for the sites along and north of I-70. Cigs and vis should remain VFR for the most part today, with brief periods of MVFR or worse conditions under any shower or thunderstorm. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Within the setup described in the discussion above, near record temperatures are possible at times this week, mainly Tuesday, and Friday. Whether readings get close depends on sky cover and any rain staying away, which keeps confidence lower at this time. Current deterministic model runs are cooler than the records, but the potential exists to get within a few degrees if everything lines up. On Tuesday April 14, Indy's record high is 85, set in 1883. On Friday April 17, Indy's record high is 87, set in 1896. Record high minimum temperatures are also in play at times given the warm and relatively humid air mass. The first opportunity for this comes Monday, when the record high minimum at Indy is 63, set in 2014 and tied in 2018. At the moment, the forecast is for tying that number. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ AVIATION...CM DISCUSSION...50 CLIMATE...Ryan  350 FXUS66 KPQR 140546 AAA AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 1046 PM PDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Updated aviation discussion. && .SYNOPSIS...Scattered light showers continue at times today. However, our focus remains on a stronger frontal system arriving Tuesday evening through early Thursday morning. This system will bring widespread precipitation to the region and a period of heavy Cascade snowfall. As a result have upgraded the Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Storm Warning from late Tuesday into early Thursday above 2500ft. It should be noted that there is around a 5% chance for wet, heavy snow to be observed along with some accumulation for elevations above 1000 ft during the times mentioned above. Looking beyond, while showers in the wake of the front decrease, cooler overnight temperatures quickly follow with increasing frost concerns. Then, looking towards the end of the week and into the weekend a warming and drying trend briefly returns. && .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday Night...As we move into the evening hours, a weak, transient ridge will continue to build over the area and will likely bring a stop to the majority of showers that have impacted the CWA. While most of the lower elevations will see a brief dry period, that cannot be said for elevated locations with the Coast Range, Cascades, and adjacent foothills as they could see lingering shower activity through the overnight hours. As Tuesday approaches, a rather significant pattern change is expected. Models are currently in excellent agreement that a robust low will dive out of the Gulf of Alaska and into the Pac NW. This system will bring about cooler air, widespread precipitation and some breezy conditions to our CWA. As the leading cold front of this system sweeps into the area, expect breezy southerly winds with gusts up to 25 mph inland and gusts up to 35 mph along the coast. By the late morning/early afternoon, widespread precipitation will be here along with cooler, 850 mb temperatures. Current model and ensemble guidance is showing 850 mb temperatures in the -4 to -5 C range, which will bring snow levels down towards 2000-3000 ft by late Tuesday/early Wednesday. 24 hour rainfall amounts during this period, generally range from 0.80 to 1.30 inches across the Willamette Valley and Portland metro, 1.00 to 2.25 inches along the coast and Coast Range, and 1.10 to 2.30 inches across the Cascades. However, for the latter region, especially at pass level, the precipitation will likely be falling as snow. Speaking of snow, have upgraded the Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Storm Warning. The incoming system looks to bring 12 to 20 inches of snowfall to the Cascades starting Tuesday afternoon through early Thursday morning, for elevations above 2500 ft. Current NBM probabilities show a 75-95% probability of 12 inches or greater snowfall over a 48 hour period (Tuesday afternoon - Thursday afternoon), a 40-60% probability of 20 inches or more for elevations above 4500 ft and a 20-30% chance for 25 inches or more for elevations above 5500 ft. The highest amounts in the high Cascades from Marion to Lane County. So, if you are planning on going over the Cascade Passes in the next few days, please keep an eye on road conditions as well as any informational posts made by local officials. In addition we are keeping an eye on the incoming system as there is a low chance (~5%) of some wet snow accumulations above 1000 ft during the same time period. If this were to occur, wet snow along with the increase in surface area on trees via the green up, could result in impacts occurring. Potential impacts could be down tree branches due to wet snow load and that could lead to power outages. What is more likely to occur (20-30% chance) is that people above 1000 ft in elevation could see visible snow fall (chunky rain) in the sky with no impacts. So, don't be surprised if late Tuesday/early Wednesday morning you observe snow in the air. Looking towards Wednesday and the post frontal environment, overall instability increases as the body of the upper level low treks southeast. The stratiform precipitation of Wednesday morning will become showery as Wednesday afternoon/evening approaches. Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) increases with models showing values of 200-500 j/kg, which is rather robust for our CWA. The main time period of focus is 11AM to 7PM on Wednesday when heating between shower bands may be maximized. Given this information, there is a 15-25% chance for thunderstorms across the majority of our CWA. As a reminder with any thunderstorms expected moderate to heavy rain, infrequent lightning, small hail/graupel, gusty and erratic winds. So, when thunder roars, go indoors or when you see a flash (of lightning), dash inside. /42 .LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday...By Thursday, the upper level low and associated front have left the CWA, but will leave the region cool and moist conditions. Thursday into Friday looks to have overnight lows in the mid 20s to mid 30s. This means that there is the potential for frost development or even freezing temperatures to impact the valley floor. Currently, the Portland/Vancouver Metro there is a 10-40% chance of overnight lows at or below 36 degrees F. From the Portland/Vancouver Metro areas southward towards Salem and Eugene, OR, expect a 45-85% chance of overnight lows at or below 36 degrees F. For locations north of Vancouver, expect a 50-75% chance of overnight lows at or below 36 degrees F. Additionally, there is a 80-95% chance of at least freezing temperatures in the Upper Hood River Valley for Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Similar conditions may develop again Thursday night into Friday morning, though with slightly lower probabilities (only 10-30% lower). While frost potential starts for most areas Thursday morning, the Upper Hood River Valley will have frost potential sooner and longer, with a 45-85% chance of frost Wednesday morning, 90-99% Thursday and Friday morning, and 65-95% Saturday morning. Chances of frost plummet to 10-35% by Sunday morning for the Upper Hood River Valley. Looking towards the weekend, temperatures gradually warm, reducing frost concerns. Ensembles show a shortwave ridge of high pressure moving quickly overhead on Saturday, but being quickly followed by another low pressure system on Sunday originating from the Gulf of Alaska. Now, beyond Sunday and into the start of next week, WPC Cluster Guidance is favoring this low holding just off the OR/WA coast or moving over the inland Pac NW, which means that cooler and moister conditions are favored for the start of next week. /42 && .AVIATION...Mainly VFR conditions expected overnight with southwesterly flow turning more southerly ahead of an approaching cold front. Chances for MVFR CIGs along the coast are 20-40% but increase after 12z to 60-80%. Inland terminals will hold on to VFR conditions a bit longer with MVFR probabilities increasing after 18z to 40-60% but may fluctuate until the evening when more uniform cloud cover is expected to move in overhead. Winds will increase along with rain chances as the cold front drops southwest toward the PacNW. Shower activity along the coast is expected to gradually increase ahead of stratiform precipitation which is expected to reach the coast around 16z and eventually spreading inland between 18-21z. Gusty southerly winds are also expected with this system. Expect gusts along the coast to reach 25-30 kt after 18z and 20-25 kt for inland locations. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions through the overnight hours with CIGS hovering around 5 kft. Southerly winds increase after 18z ahead of an approaching cold front. Expect gusts between 20-25 kt through the afternoon and evening. Rain chances increase late in the morning with scattered showers ahead of the main area of stratiform precipitation which is expected to reach inland during the early afternoon. Chances for MVFR conditions increase after 16-18z as precipitation begins to move in with probabilities between 50-80% after 20z. -19 && .MARINE...Relatively calm conditions are expected through this evening as westerly winds persist at around 10 kt or less with seas of around 5 to 7 ft. Southwesterly winds begin to increase later tonight into Tuesday as a strong cold front approaches the waters. Expect southwest winds to gust up to 30 kt across all coastal waters on Tuesday as the front slowly moves south. Winds are expected to be strongest Tuesday afternoon into early Tue evening. During this time, there will be around a 3-6 hour period when gusts could (50% chance) exceed 34 kt, producing marginal Gale Force wind gusts. Have maintained the strongly worded Small Craft Advisory beginning early Tue morning for the northern waters and extending across all waters, including the Columbia River Bar, Tue morning through Tue night. The increased wind waves are expected to build seas to around 10 to 12 ft with a period of around 8-10 seconds. Seas remain steep and choppy through Tue night as well. Winds are expected to abruptly shift to the northwest behind the frontal passage later Tuesday through Tuesday night as the cold front moves south across the coastal waters. Breezy northwest winds continue through Wednesday with gusts increasing back up to 20-25 kt as an area of low pressure drops along the Canadian coast toward the Puget Sound. This will also bring a 15-25% chance of thunderstorms over the waters through Wed evening. Seas are expected to persist at around around 8 to 10 ft on Wednesday, building slightly to around 9 to 11 ft Wed night as a northwest swell moves through the waters. Will likely need to extend the Small Craft Advisory into Thu morning. High pressure then builds over the waters later this week as northerly winds return and seas gradually subside to around 4 to 6 ft Friday into Saturday. There is potential for another weather system to impact the waters later this weekend. /DH && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM Tuesday to 5 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ126>128. WA...Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM Tuesday to 5 AM PDT Thursday for WAZ211. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Tuesday to 5 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ210-252-253-272-273. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Tuesday to 5 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ251-271. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland  315 FXUS64 KEWX 140548 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1248 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated strong to severe possible across the southern Edwards Plateau and near the Rio Grande late this afternoon/evening. - Chance for isolated storms Wednesday north of I-10. - Warm and humid conditions to continue throughout the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 1234 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The atmospheric setup for Tuesday over South-Central Texas will be similar to Monday as moist southerly flow to southeasterly flow continues. Most should stay dry for much of the day beneath a steady capping inversion and a mix of partly to mostly cloudy skies. However, the combination of a weak mid-level shortwave ejecting out of Mexico and broader height falls from a slowly approaching upper- trough will provide a more lift, giving some additional support to isolated storms later in the day over western portions of the region and providing a more conducive environment for their longevity. These storms are expected to form mainly along the dry line over West Texas and Mexico in the late afternoon, potentially crossing into the southern Edwards Plateau or Rio Grande Plains near and after sunset. Edwards, Kinney, and Val Verde counties have the best shot at seeing storm activity, most likely between 5-10 PM. A few models show storms developing as far south as US-57, though those chances are more uncertain given stronger capping in that area. Continued synoptic ascent and a modest 30-kt low level jet could help sustain storms a little longer into the Hill Country, though weakening is expected overnight and the severe risk should lessen quickly by 12 AM midnight Wednesday before the remnant showers fade. Up to a Level 2 of 5 (Slight) risk for severe weather is highlighted, with storms presenting the typical risks for springtime West Texas supercells... large hail, strong winds, and perhaps a brief isolated tornado in the evening. The storms may also produce locally heavy rains, with a quick 1 to 3 inches possible. The broader upper-trough nears our area Wednesday. Most of the rising motion accompanying this disturbance will be displaced well to our north, but the overlap of warm/moist air with residual ascent over our area should facilitate another period of isolated thunderstorms. The hi-res models have not been very consistent with the placement of this activity, but the trough placement would tend to favor the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country during the afternoon to evening hours, with activity possibly extending into the Austin area and less of a potential south of the Balcones Escarpment. A marginal severe and excessive rain risk accompanies these storms. Daytime temperatures today and Wednesday remain roughly seasonably warm, with highs generally in the 80s for most. Afternoon clouds and moist air, along with southeasterly flow, are helping to prevent highs from building farther. However, that moist air is also keeping overnight temperatures unseasonably mild in the 60s to near 70. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 1234 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 After Wednesday's trough passes, an upper-level ridge should provide calmer weather Thursday and Friday. We'll likely see our warmest temperatures of the week during that period as the ridge shapes a warmer airmass over the area, bringing into the upper 80s and low 90s. Despite the quieter weather, it'll still be rather humid as dew points stay at or above the 90th percentile for the rest of the week. Southerly winds should be breezy on Friday in response to a developing low-pressure system over the Central Plains, which could see exposed and elevated terrain experiencing a 20-mph sustained wind during the afternoon with gusts to around 30 mph. An amplified trough is forecast to barrel out of the central Rockies into the Central Plains on Saturday. The deep meridional flow behind the trough is well-suited to bring a stout cold front into our area on Saturday. There will likely be storms along the front as it cycles through the warm Gulf air over South-Central Texas. Most of this activity is likely to be along and ahead of the front on Saturday, though the continued southwesterly flow should allow mid- level moisture to spill behind the front and leave behind some continued cloud cover and chances for showers through at least Monday. Substantially cooler air is expected behind the front. Should the front arrive on schedule, Saturday night and Sunday morning would bring crisp and drier conditions. The latest model average has lows in the 50s, but accounting for the blurriness of model blends at this range, lows in the mid to upper 40s would be reasonable to expect especially north of I-10, as reflected in the statistical guidance. Highs Sunday and Monday are forecast to be below average for mid-April, with highs in the 60s and 70s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 MVFR conditions are forecast for the local area sites overnight through about noon Tuesday. MVFR cigs may take a bit longer or through 22Z for KDRT before VFR cigs return. Breezy southeasterly winds of 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 20 to 25 knots are forecast mainly for the afternoon and evening. Have added PROB30 for KDRT for early this evening as storms move from Mexico into the Rio Grande. MVFR cigs come back around 04Z Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 84 69 84 69 / 10 10 40 30 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 84 67 85 67 / 10 10 30 30 New Braunfels Muni Airport 85 67 85 67 / 0 10 30 20 Burnet Muni Airport 81 67 79 66 / 10 20 40 40 Del Rio Intl Airport 84 69 85 68 / 30 40 30 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 82 67 82 66 / 0 10 40 40 Hondo Muni Airport 86 67 83 65 / 10 20 30 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 84 68 85 67 / 10 10 30 20 La Grange - Fayette Regional 86 69 85 69 / 0 0 10 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 85 69 85 68 / 0 10 30 20 Stinson Muni Airport 86 70 86 69 / 0 10 30 20 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Tran LONG TERM....Tran AVIATION...17  811 FXUS63 KDVN 140548 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 1248 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - We continue to have multiple days of severe weather risks this week, including an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) for severe storms Tuesday, along with Slight Risks for Wednesday and Friday. - Warm and seasonably humid conditions are expected through much of this week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 214 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Not much change for our severe weather potential this afternoon into early this evening, with a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for areas along and north of Galena, IL southeast towards Galva, IL, and a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) along and north of a line from Sigourney, IA to south-central Hancock county, IL. After any early evening storms dissipate over northwest Illinois, attention will quickly turn to any storms that have developed along a warm front/surface low over northwestern Iowa into southern Minnesota, northwest of our area. The latest high-res CAMs have some slight variation of just how far south the convection will reach. It's possible that our northern CWA could be clipped by this activity, which appears likely to be in a weakening phase but could still pose a locally gusty wind threat. In the wake of this activity, we should also see some fog develop late tonight into early Tuesday morning, owing to the abundant low-level moisture we have in place. Models suggest that once the northern activity moves out, there should be a brief respite from the severe threat Tuesday morning (and perhaps through most, if not all, of the afternoon hours) before yet another round of severe storms develop late in the afternoon through the evening. Tuesday's severe threat is higher for us compared to today due to another approaching surface low over western Iowa, along with a frontal boundary setting up across our region. The environment appears to be primed for severe storms, with the 13.12z HREF ensemble SBCAPE values progged around the 2500-3500 J/kg and deep-layer shear values around 40 to 50 knots. A southwesterly LLJ around 30-40 knots should also help add more lift and theta-e advection to the environment, along with enhancing low- level shear magnitudes. With steep mid-level lapse rates expected, as well, all hazards are expected with this convection. CAMs suggest convective morphology to initially begin as discrete supercells along the boundary, which would be supportive of a large hail and tornado threat. Convection could consolidate into a multicell cluster, which would then support a damaging wind threat by the late evening and Tuesday night period. With this said, SPC maintained the Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) for severe storms along and north of line from southern Putnam county, IL to northern Van Buren county, IA, with a Slight Risk elsewhere. Another thing that could become problematic is a signal in the CAMs for some training convection Tuesday night as storms develop along the boundary. Pwat values are progged around 1 to 1.5 inches, along with a persistent LLJ impinging on the boundary. If rainfall becomes heavy over a single location, especially if it is a more urban area, overnight flash flooding could become a concern. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 214 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 For Wednesday through Friday, the active pattern will only continue as an upper-level longwave trough moves through the area Wednesday, followed by yet another one on Friday. We continue to be outlooked by SPC for Slight Risks both days in our region. Much uncertainty remains on the timing and severity as prior convection can augment the environment, but the various machine learning severe probability tools suggest these days to be volatile from an environmental perspective, so more severe storm potential is expected later this week. Stay up to date on these severe weather threats! A quick look ahead to the upcoming weekend shows a calmer pattern developing for Saturday and Sunday as upper-level ridging develops to the west. A cold front should bring more seasonal temperatures to the area. In fact, we could be dealing with our first bout of frost/freeze conditions during this growing season Saturday night. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1240 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Outflow boundary from convection across WI/far northeast IA will pass through KDBQ at the start of the TAFs bringing gusty northwest winds to 30 kt before veering to easterly and diminishing. PROB30 for a shower or storm will also exist behind the boundary for a short time at KDBQ at the start of the period while some lowering of MVFR ceilings looks likely. Across the rest of the terminals, predominantly VFR conditions pre-boundary overnight with gusty south/southwest winds. A strengthening LLJ will bring some marginal LLWS prior to daybreak. There is also a chance (20%) for a few showers/storms after 09z through 12z near/north of KMLI to south of KDBQ. A period of MVFR to possibly localized IFR in low clouds and/or light fog exists Tuesday morning near KDBQ and possibly KCID near/north of the outflow boundary. Elsewhere, predominantly VFR conditions are expected the rest of the day on Tuesday. There is some signal for additional scattered higher based shower and storms late morning and early afternoon. However, this potential is lower confidence as consensus in the CAM guidance is lacking. There is the potential for more storms Tuesday late afternoon and evening, with the signal mainly north of Hwy 30 in closer proximity to the retreating boundary. Will have PROB30 mention at KDBQ where confidence is higher. Elsewhere, a capping inversion and lack of a coherent trigger lends to confidence being too low for any mention. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Schultz LONG TERM...Schultz/Uttech AVIATION...McClure  210 FXUS62 KTAE 140549 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 149 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 147 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Patchy fog is possible on Tuesday morning over the Florida Panhandle and Southeast Alabama, mainly west of the Choctawhatchee River. If encountering fog while driving, slow down, use low beam headlights, and increase braking distance. - Little or no rain is expected through this weekend. Drought conditions will worsen. Fire concerns will remain elevated. Use extreme caution with any outdoor burning. Please heed burn bans where they are in effect. - Above normal temperatures will continue through this weekend, with lower 90s likely late this week. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (This Evening through Sunday) Issued at 246 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Surface high pressure extending from the Atlantic and upper-level high pressure spreading from the Yucatan will keep our weather high and dry for the next several days. Afternoon temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s with low 90s possible by the end of the work week. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s and low 60s through the week. As the weekend approaches, an upper level shortwave from the Midwest will bring a "cold" front closer to the Southeast but will weaken upon approach and fall apart. Another front will develop from a surface low over the Midwest and bring the cold front south to our region by Sunday. Little to no rainfall is expected. Temperatures behind this front will return to the mid-80s. During the morning hours, patchy to areas of fog (possibly dense) is may develop in the FL Panhandle and AL Wiregrass region. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 147 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Mainly VFR conds thru the TAF period with lgt/calm winds, and another aftn seabreeze tmrw. The only concerns are during the early-morning hrs when patchy fog encroaches on ECP/DHN and perhaps VLD. The highest confidence in reduced vsbys are the western terminals where a 9-13Z TEMPO group is in place for 1/2SM. Guidance is not as excited for fog prospects at VLD, but did not want to completely remove the mention in the TAFs. && .MARINE... Issued at 246 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A surface high extending from the western Atlantic will keep generally light to gentle southeasterly winds over the waters for the next several days. Seabreezes can be expected to push just inland during the afternoon hours. Later this week, the High will settle a little further south, shifting our winds more southerly. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 246 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Warm and dry conditions will continue through the week. Drought conditions will continue and/or worsen. Transport winds will generally be southerly; swinging from southeasterly to southwesterly at around 5-10 mph. Expect afternoon seabreezes. Dispersions will be moderate, with higher dispersions expected by Wednesday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 246 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 No rain is expected for the next several days. Drought conditions will continue or worsen. For more local drought information & statements, visit the following websites: weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 87 57 87 58 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 80 60 81 62 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 86 57 87 58 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 87 58 89 60 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 89 58 90 58 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 88 56 88 57 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 76 62 76 63 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ early this morning for FLZ108-112-114-115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Montgomery LONG TERM....Montgomery AVIATION...Dobbs/IG3 MARINE...Montgomery FIRE WEATHER...Montgomery HYDROLOGY...Montgomery  366 FXUS63 KLOT 140549 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 1249 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Late spring to summer-like temperatures will continue through Friday with highs in the 70s and 80s and lows in the 60s. - Several additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms, including a threat for severe weather and flooding expected, especially late Tuesday afternoon/evening and again on Wednesday. - A brief break in the pattern is expected late Thursday into or through the day on Friday before another storm system arrives in the Friday evening to Saturday timeframe. - In the wake of the Saturday cold front, a brief, potentially sharp, shot of much cooler air could bring frost/freeze concerns into next Sunday and Monday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 844 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 After a couple of stronger thunderstorms traversed the CWA earlier this afternoon, conditions have quieted down this evening and any noteworthy convection now resides well outside of the area as of this writing. A few isolated showers and garden variety storms had just recently moved across the area, but now we're seeing only very light radar returns around the CWA. Skies have largely cleared out to our west toward the Mississippi and no convection currently exists immediately upstream. A comparison of the 18Z and 00Z RAOBS out of DVN shows the EML continues to slide eastward across the region with steepening lapse rates above 850mb into this evening. However, the BL has become markedly more stable owing to some low-mid level dry advection and warming low level temps reinforcing a capping inversion, and forecast soundings suggest the BL will only become more stable through the evening. This is a promising signal for conditions to remain largely quiet into the overnight hours. Can't rule out that a low level jet strengthening overhead (to 50 to 55 kt at 850mb by late evening) promotes additional elevated convection atop the stabilizing BL into the night (as hinted by a few WOFs members), but a big majority of recent CAM guidance keeps conditions dry for the next several hours. In the forecast, maintained broad brush slight chances for isolated storms into the night. Farther up to the north and northwest, a tighly-packed line of supercells stretches from northern IA, through SE MN, and across central WI to the Door Peninsula after having formed along a warm front. As the associated surface low and shortwave impulse get sheared out across northern IA and southern WI late tonight, expectations are for this line of storms to evolve into a southeastward propagating MCS and dive across the CWA late tonight into early Tuesday morning. Confidence in this occurring has risen notably over the past several hours with growing support from CAM guidance and now with the early stages of this transition to an MCS taking place over northern IA. This system looks to move into our northwest around roughly 2 AM and progress toward the southeast before exiting our CWA sometime early to mid Tuesday morning. By this time, storms should be plenty elevated and are not expected to pose a severe risk, but can't rule out some gusty winds or small hail given the elevated instability and strong low level wind field. A number of CAMs suggest some heavy rain will be possible resolving swaths of a few to several quick tenths of an inch of QPF. Coverage around the area remains pretty uncertain with the highest coverage of precip favored generally north of I-80. Beyond any activity lingering into the morning, most of Tuesday looks dry before thunder chances increase again for the late afternoon/evening. For more on tomorrow's storm chances and severe potential, refer to the full discussion below. Doom && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Tuesday and Wednesday... Tuesday and Wednesday, aggregate mid/upper level troughing across the southwestern U.S. will slide eastward over the Four Corners Region of the Desert Southwest. As this occurs, the enhanced corridor of broad upper-level southwesterly flow from the Plains to the Upper Midwest will be shunted farther eastward into the Great Lakes. This will essentially steer a parade of shortwave impulses northeastward across our area through midweek. Altogether, this in addition to the favorable overlap of the plume of steep mid-level lapse rates, stalled frontal zone, a steady feed of low-level moisture advection and strong deep-layer shear will support a threat for additional waves of severe thunderstorms in the general region. Of particular concern for more severe storms is the late Tuesday afternoon and evening time period. Following any early morning remnant storms, we should see primarily storm free weather for much of the day as the area becomes capped under the EML inversion. Accordingly, this should favor several hours of diurnal heating and destabilization of the moist (dew points in the 60s) low-level airmass through the day. Scattered thunderstorm development then looks favorable in the vicinity of the frontal boundary across eastern IA and southern WI sometime during the mid to late afternoon hours of Tuesday. Given the favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment, supercells capable of very large hail (2"+) will be a favorable, at least with the initial activity. A notable tornado threat may also develop for a few hours late in the afternoon through early evening across eastern IA into northwestern IL. This as strengthening low- level flow leads to enlarged low-level hodographs into early evening. The storm mode does look to ultimately build upscale into forward propagating segments through the evening, so a transition to damaging wind producing storms is likely as the storms progress east into northern IN later in the evening. Hydrology will also become an increased concern Tuesday night, particularly if repeated rounds of storms move over the same area. If this occurs, a notable threat of flash flooding will materialize into Tuesday night. Prior rounds of convection into Wednesday morning may then muddle the picture convectively speaking for Wednesday PM. Ultimately, pinpointing favored locations and time windows will remain challenging until there is better clarity on exact shortwaves and eventual placements of boundaries. KJB Thursday through Sunday: There's variance regarding the progression of a cold front across the region, with some of the slower solutions holding onto some potential for storms into Thursday afternoon. Thereafter, into Thursday night and at least the start of Friday, ensemble model guidance advertises a brief break in the stormy pattern as shortwave ridging moves through the Great Lakes ahead of a substantial trough digging into the central US. High temperatures look to rebound into the low to even mid 80s by Friday accompanied by another threat for strong to severe thunderstorms Friday night into Saturday. Thereafter, there is a reasonably strong signal in ensemble guidance for a cooldown to start next week. The key aspect for the weekend into early next week cooldown is a recent trend towards a much cooler air mass due to trough amplification over the region. If this comes to pass, parts of the area may flirt with sub-freezing temperatures Saturday night into early Sunday, and again Sunday night into next Monday morning. With the summer-like warmth and rain this week supercharging plant growth and leaf out, the magnitude of the weekend cold shot will be one to watch for agricultural interests. Castro/Borchardt && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1249 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Key messages for the 06Z TAF period: * Gusty southwest winds and LLWS overnight. * A period of gusty SHRA and embedded TS early this morning. * Winds may shift to north-northeast behind an outflow boundary with the SHRA/TS, SE/ESE for a time this morning, before returning to southwesterly. * MVFR CIGs after sunrise until early afternoon. * Additional TSRA expected Tuesday late afternoon into night. Low confidence on exact timing and coverage. A weakening line of showers and embedded thunderstorms should move across the TAF sites early this morning until just after sunrise. Main window of opportunity is 08 to 12Z at RFD and 09 to 13Z in Chicago. If the convection doesn't weaken too much, heavy rainfall and vsby reductions down to MVFR may occur. An southward shifting outflow boundary near the northern MKE suburbs as of this writing may get an assist to surge south as severe storms to the west intersect it. Concern here is for a period of onshore winds (possibly gusty at initially) at the Chicago terminals before returning to southwest by mid morning. MVFR CIGs will likely settle overhead during or just after the rain and persist through the morning Tuesday. Guidance has trended later in the day with a return to VFR with early afternoon now favored. Additional thunderstorms are expected over the airspace later Tuesday, as early as late afternoon with higher chances during the evening and night. Confidence is low on the exact timing and coverage of storms at the terminals, and PROB30s in the latest TAFs correspond to the windows of seemingly greatest potential. However, storms are a possibility anytime after mid-afternoon through the overnight. Severe weather will be possible if TS impact any terminals in the late afternoon-early evening. SW winds will regularly gust between 25 and 30 kt through the pre-dawn hours today, along with LLWS due to ~60 kt winds at about 2kft AGL. Expect SW winds gusting between 20 and 25 kt during the day on Tuesday. Direction could get squirrelly in the vicinity of storms both early this morning (as noted earlier) and again this evening through the overnight. Doom/Castro && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for the IL and IN nearshore waters. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago  940 FXUS61 KBUF 140550 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 150 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes have been made with this update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Warm with rounds of showers and thunderstorms through much of the week. 2) Marginal risk for isolated severe thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall Tuesday and Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Warm with rounds of showers and thunderstorms through much of the week. An area of showers and thunderstorms will continue to drift east across the western Southern Tier through the wee hours of the morning, likely weakening with time and northeast extent as they move away from supporting limited instability. Surface low pressure will move from the central Great Lakes this morning to the Saint Lawrence Valley by early this evening. A period of warm advection and moisture transport will cross the eastern Great Lakes this morning ahead of the low, enhanced on the nose of a 40-50 knot low level jet in the warm sector of the passing low. Isentropic upglide and convergence near the nose of the low level jet will likely support an area of showers and scattered thunderstorms moving northeast across the area this morning. A second line of convection may develop along the weak cold front trailing the low, which will cross the eastern Great Lakes from late morning through late afternoon. Convergence from the passing weak front may combine with convergence along the southern edge of enhanced flow off Lake Erie from the Southern Tier into the Finger Lakes and Central NY, where convection is most likely this afternoon. A gusty southwest wind off the cold Lake Erie and Lake Ontario waters will likely reduce the chance of afternoon storms on the lake plains. Most of the showers and scattered thunderstorms will end early this evening with the exit of the weak cold front and loss of diurnal instability. This will leave mainly dry conditions through the first half of the night. Late tonight, a convectively augmented shortwave will move out of lower Michigan and across southern Ontario, approaching Western NY before daybreak with increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms from west to east during the pre-dawn hours. This cluster of thunderstorms, and the potential for additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms, will continue through Wednesday across the region. Additional showers and sub-severe thunderstorms are likely to continue crossing into WNY and over to the North Country through the remainder of Wednesday night. A deeper, positively tilted mid-level shortwave moving into the Great Lakes from the Midwest will then cause the stalled boundary to briefly lift north of the region with a drying trend south of Lake Ontario as temps remain warm. The surface low attendant to the shortwave will then push a cold front through the forecast area sometime between Thursday and Thursday night with yet another round of showers and embedded thunderstorms. Some mid to long range guidance suggests a secondary sfc wave developing along the boundary which could slow its progression. Uncertainty in this solution leads to PoPs >30% being maintained through Friday, though temps should still cool several degrees compared to the midweek timeframe. KEY MESSAGE 2...Marginal risk for isolated severe thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall Tuesday and Wednesday. Numerous rounds of showers and thunderstorms will cross the eastern Great Lakes today through Wednesday, with a few of these rounds potentially bringing a risk of isolated strong wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall. The first round of convection in the warm advection regime this morning is not likely to become severe, with an initially stable boundary layer keeping instability rooted above the surface and keeping most of the stronger winds aloft. Thunderstorms will produce brief heavy downpours today through tonight with PWAT values reaching or exceeding 1.25", but strong flow and fast storm motions will limit the flood risk unless training convection occurs. A weak cold front will cross the eastern Great Lakes from late morning through the afternoon today. Surface temperatures climbing into the 70s and surface dewpoints rising into the mid to upper 50s will support weak to moderate surface based instability by early afternoon. Strong flow in the 2K to 10K foot layer with largely unidirectional shear profiles will support the risk of isolated strong wind gusts in any stronger storms. Thunderstorms are most probable from late morning through the afternoon from the Southern Tier into the Finger Lakes and Central NY along the southern edge of enhanced flow over and northeast of the lakes. Stable lake shadows will expand northeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario in the afternoon, reducing chances for convection over the lake plains. Any convection that develops this afternoon will end by early evening as the weak cold front exits and the boundary layer stabilizes. A convectively augmented shortwave will move across lower Michigan and southern Ontario overnight, approaching Western NY towards daybreak Wednesday. Forcing and persistent convergence along and east-west frontal zone may allow a cluster of showers and thunderstorms to persist overnight, with these storms moving into Western NY during the pre-dawn hours of Wednesday. A few of these storms may also bring a risk of locally strong wind gusts, particularly if bowing segments are able to persist through the overnight hours. Wednesday, a decaying MCS in the vicinity of the Finger Lakes or North Country around daybreak will likely shuffle east and out of the forecast area by mid-morning. In its wake, the eastern Great Lakes will remain within the warm sector of a nearby stalled frontal boundary, with a short break in the shower activity expected. This should allow the environment to recover to some extent, especially if a few breaks in the cloud cover emerge. Signals from the short to mid-range guidance on convective evolution remain messy with the 18z REFS advertising a 30-65% chance for SBCAPE values >1000J/kg south of I-90 and west of the Finger Lakes, highest across southwestern NY. Steepening lapse rates and strong 0-6km bulk shear values around 45kts overtop the stalled boundary may cause a few strong to severe thunderstorms to develop as the next convective wave tracks into WNY from southern Michigan in the afternoon and evening. At this juncture the primary threat appears to be damaging wind gusts and small to marginally severe hail, though given potentially strong (>20kts) 0-1km shear profiles, cannot completely rule out an isolated tornado. The severe risk appears generally lower north of I-90 and in the North Country. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... An area of showers and thunderstorms will drift east across the western Southern Tier through the wee hours of the morning, with local CIG/VSBY restrictions and brief downpours including near KJHW. Areas of fog and low stratus will continue early this morning east of Lake Ontario with IFR/LIFR conditions. Surface low pressure will move from the central Great Lakes this morning to the Saint Lawrence Valley by this evening. An area of showers and a few thunderstorms will cross the eastern Great Lakes from southwest to northeast this morning, with the greatest coverage likely to be across the northern portion of the area. A few more scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and early evening with daytime heating, mainly from the Southern Tier to the Finger Lakes, Central NY, and Tug Hill region. Any of the showers and storms today will produce brief VSBY/CIG restrictions. Southwest winds off the cold lake waters will reduce the chance of afternoon and evening convection northeast of Lake Erie. A variety of CIGS will continue today through tonight. MVFR/IFR CIGS will occur at times over and downwind of the lakes with high dewpoints over the cold water supporting a marine layer. Lower CIGS will also be found in areas of organized showers and across higher terrain at times. A strong low level jet will remain in place today. This will initially support some low level wind shear early this morning, then gusty winds from mid morning through the afternoon. Expect gusts in the 20-30 knot range in most areas, and up to 35 knots northeast of Lake Erie including KBUF, KIAG, and KROC. Outlook... Wednesday through Thursday night...VFR/MVFR with some local IFR at times. Numerous rounds of showers and scattered thunderstorms. Friday...VFR/MVFR with showers likely. Saturday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers later in the afternoon. && .MARINE... Southwest winds will increase again today as a weak cold front crosses the eastern Great Lakes. The cold lake waters will tend to stabilize the boundary layer over the lakes, with stronger winds focusing on land. The most likely areas to see a period of Small Craft Advisory worthy winds today will be the Niagara River and the western end of Lake Ontario. Rounds of showers and scattered thunderstorms will cross the lower Great Lakes today through Thursday. A few storms may produce locally higher winds and waves along with lightning strikes. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hitchcock/PP AVIATION...Hitchcock MARINE...Hitchcock  547 FXUS63 KOAX 140550 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1250 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this week, particularly Tuesday and Friday. - Thursday will be a drying day as a ridge moves in between systems. - Possible temperature impacts are expected for those with agricultural interests heading into the weekend. Expected lows Saturday and Sunday morning will be in the 20s and 30s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1201 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The forecast period begins with southwest flow over the region and an upper level trough over northwestern Arizona. Low pressure develops on the lee side of the Rockies overnight, lifting into extreme southwestern Nebraska and central Nebraska by daybreak Tuesday. Tuesday morning, a warm front develops as far north as Omaha/Council Bluffs. Temperatures are expected to climb into the 80s behind the front and the 70s to the north of it. Heading further into the day, the front will sag southward a little bit, nudging a little closer to the NE/KS border. Late afternoon into the evening, instability will increase across southeastern Nebraska/southwestern Iowa. SBCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg and MLCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg are expected. Storms are expected to develop along the warm front during the evening, a few of which may become strong to severe. Large hail and damaging wind gusts appear to be the main concerns with any storms that are able to develop. The severe potential could go into the early morning hours. The active weather pattern will continue through the rest of the week with another shortwave trough lifting out of the Four Corners region Tuesday and reaching southern Nebraska/northern Kansas by Wednesday morning. The low will remain over eastern Nebraska Wednesday morning, with a few showers and thunderstorms possible through the day. The low is expected to lift slightly to the north on Wednesday, bringing some wrap around moisture to northern Nebraska. PoPs will decrease southwest to northeast heading into the evening hours as the low exits. A few isolated strong storms may develop in the southeastern part of the CWA Wednesday evening. Thursday is still expected to be a dry out day as a ridge moves across the region. After the brief cool down (highs in the 70s) on Wednesday, warm air advects into the region. Expect widespread 80s for highs Thursday afternoon. Friday will be a day to watch as we get closer to the end of the week. Low pressure develops on the lee side of the Rockies with an attendant cold front moving into the region. An upper level trough over the Four Corners region will lift to the northeast into the area by Friday night. The cold front will be ushering in much cooler air with WAA and moisture advection ahead of it. There is still uncertainty in where the cold front reaches and the timing of everything. Strong to severe storms with this set up are expected, with all hazards possible. There is still considerable uncertainty in some of the forecast details for this period, so continue to monitor the forecast for potential changes. Cooler air pushing in behind the front will result in a cooler weekend. Saturday morning lows will be in the 30s, with low 30s expected from David City to Thurston and areas north. Those with agricultural interests will want to keep an eye on temperatures. Highs will struggle into the 50s for much of the area. A few locations will not make it into the 50s. Saturday night/Sunday morning will be cold once again with lows ranging from the mid-20s to the mid-30s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1250 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions expected overnight with a narrow band of 1500-3000 ft clouds favored to develop near OMA and LNK just after sunrise. Can't completely rule out a brief shower with these, but unlikely to be very impactful. Higher shower and storm chances arrive after 00Z, but confidence is low in any TAF site being impacted, with guidance suggesting an area to the north and an area to the south, with spotty activity in between. Any storms near OMA and LNK could be strong to severe, with hail and damaging winds. Otherwise, direction will be variable at OMA and LNK, northeasterly through Tuesday morning, becoming southwesterly during the afternoon, then a return to northeasterly by the evening. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ANW AVIATION...CA  086 FXUS62 KMLB 140554 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 154 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER, CLIMATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 154 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - A High Risk for rip currents persists at area beaches today. - Remaining mostly dry over the next several days with a warming trend; Near record highs in the lower 90s late this week and into the weekend over the interior. - Next cold front forecast to cross the area Sunday night into early Monday and bring a small chance for showers early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 154 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Today-Tonight...Ridge aloft remains extended across the area as surface ridge axis of high pressure across the Atlantic persists north of central FL. This will continue a warm and mostly dry pattern across the region today, with highs near to slightly above normal, ranging from near 80 degrees at the coast and low to mid 80s across the interior. Despite an overall dry airmass (PW values around 0.7-0.8"), there is enough moisture in the lower levels for the easterly flow to generate a few onshore moving sprinkles, mainly along the Treasure Coast through this morning and into the afternoon. Radar imagery has already shown some very light showers move onshore Martin County. However, not expecting much in the way of measurable rainfall with this activity, so rain chances remain low (10% or less). Models show airmass drying out even further in tonight which should end any of these light showers and sprinkles. Easterly winds increase up to 10-15 mph today, with gusts to around 20 mph. Onshore winds then diminish into tonight with temps falling into the mid 50s to low 60s across the interior, and in the low to mid 60s at the coast. HREF guidance shows a better potential for patchy fog late tonight through early Wednesday morning across to northwest of the I-4 corridor. A High Risk for life-threatening rip currents persists at area beaches today due to a lingering swell. Entering the surf is not advised. Wednesday-Sunday...Ridge axis remains north of the area through Thursday and then model guidance shows it settling southward across the area late week into the weekend, which will weaken the onshore flow. Ridge aloft will remain extended across the area, continuing a warming trend through the period and overall dry conditions. Onshore winds and inland moving sea breeze will continue to keep warmest max temperatures across the interior each day. Highs will remain closer to normal in the upper 70s/low 80s at the coast Wednesday and Thursday, and be warmer than normal inland, in the mid to upper 80s. As temperatures continue to climb into late week and into the weekend, max temps will become above normal area-wide, ranging from the low to mid 80s at the coast and then climbing into the low 90s across the interior. For inland sites, these highs will be nearing record values, but greatest potential for any tied or broken daily records still look to be at Leesburg Friday through Sunday. Monday-Tuesday...A weak cold front is forecast to move through the area Sunday night into early Monday. This will finally lead to a cooling trend into early next week and also bring a return of rain chances. However, for now PoPs remain on the lower end (around 20- 30%), as there remains some differences in overall moisture return and shower coverage between the GFS/ECMWF, with the GFS still slightly wetter than the ECMWF. Both models show a period of breezy to windy northeast to east winds developing behind the front that will continue into Tuesday. && .MARINE... Issued at 154 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Boating conditions will continue to become more favorable the remainder of the week and into the weekend. Ridge axis of high pressure across the Atlantic remains north of the waters through midweek and then settles southward across central Florida late this week and into the weekend. E/SE winds will generally continue over the next several days in the prevailing flow as ridge axis remains to the north, and then into the afternoon/evening hours Friday through Sunday with the developing east coast sea breeze as ridge settles across the area. Wind speeds will range from 5-15 knots, with seas 3-5 feet today and Wednesday falling to 2-4 feet into late week, and then 2-3 feet into the weekend. A few light showers and sprinkles may develop from time to time in the onshore flow, but overall dry conditions are forecast for the next several days. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 154 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Mainly VFR conditions through the TAF period. Very low chances (10% or less) for patchy ground fog north of I-4 early in the morning. E- ESE winds 5-10 kts along the Space/Treasure Coasts and 5 kts or less at northern/inland terminals tonight pick up to 8-13 kts with occasionally stronger gusts in the afternoon, highest along the southern coast behind the sea breeze. ISO -SHRA possible from KMLB- KSUA, but VIS/CIG impacts minimal. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 154 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Prevailing onshore winds will generally continue through Thursday as ridge axis of high pressure across the Atlantic remains just north of the area. Easterly winds will increase up to 10-15 mph each afternoon through midweek, with strongest winds generally at the coast. Gusts to around 20 mph will also be possible today. Dry conditions are forecast to prevail through late week, with a gradual warming trend continuing over the next several days. Onshore flow will keep Min RH values above critical levels in the mid 40s to mid 50s at the coast. However, well inland, across areas near to northwest of I-4, Min RH values as low as 35-40 percent are forecast this afternoon, with more critical values in the low to mid 30s across this far inland portion of east central Florida Wednesday and Thursday. However, wind speeds are forecast to remain below 15 mph across this area where lower RH values occur. Dispersion values will be Good to Very Good both today and Wednesday. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 154 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Record Highs for April 17-19: April 17th April 18th April 19th Daytona Beach 89 2022 92 1967 92 1968 Leesburg 92 1991 90 1990 92 2020 Sanford 92 1967 94 1967 94 2020 Orlando 95 1922 93 1922 94 1922 Melbourne 90 2006 91 2015 93 2015 Vero Beach 91 2021 92 2015 93 1969 Fort Pierce 93 1919 94 2015 92 1988 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 81 60 80 60 / 10 0 0 0 MCO 84 60 84 61 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 80 65 79 65 / 10 0 0 0 VRB 80 63 80 63 / 10 0 0 0 LEE 86 60 87 61 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 84 60 85 60 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 84 61 85 61 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 80 62 80 62 / 10 0 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Weitlich AVIATION...Haley  748 FXUS61 KPBZ 140555 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 155 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Update to Aviation Discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Anomalously warm temperatures this week. Daily record high max and minimum temperatures will be challenged and possibly broken. 2) Increasing daily storm chances this week. Marginal Risk of severe weather on Tuesday north and west of Pittsburgh. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... The upper level pattern will continue to feature the ridge building in the east by Tuesday with the main ridge axis setting up over the Ohio Valley by 00Z Wednesday. The strength of the ridge seems to be as such where precip splits half the forecast from, north to south. This also provides an interesting situation where the southern portion of the forecast area could be breaking records rather than locations such as DUJ. This will mean that record heat will not be all encompassing. It is worth noting that warm lows may still be the case in these areas given the diurnal nature to some of the convection. This is further proven by the latest 13Z NBM showing the probability of surpassing 85 degrees, probs drop off significantly north of Allegheny County. The other sites, such as PIT, ZZV, PHD, and MGW have 60% to 80% of surpassing 85 degrees which would break much of the records in place at least on Wednesday. It would seem, Wed and Thu would be the best days to break records. The Saturday timeframe looks like records could be broken as well but Day 6 offers less confidence at this time. KEY MESSAGE 2... The SPC outlook still continues to highlight the northern half of the forecast area. The Marginal area still continues to highlight the wind potential but the hail potential remains still a plausible threat to remain. This is due to how quick the warm layer sets up just above 850MB. Some Hi-res models keep the warm layer in place but show quite a bit of elevated CAPE. This, with the fact that some model soundings are showing a strong right turn hodograph tomorrow afternoon. In analyzing the NBM for tomorrow, the late afternoon data, (21Z - 23Z), the mean for SB CAPE takes it over 1500 J/Kg, but if we have a weak cap in place, the 90th percentile SB CAPE soars over 2500 J/Kg for Tuesday evening over the northern forecast area. Certainly something to monitor. As well, the CWASP mean is already over 70% but at the chance of overperforming, CWASP soars to over 80%. The only concern for this potential is the timing and several hi-res models have different onset times ranging from noon tomorrow to 6pm tomorrow evening to even a round overnight. This will play into how well the warm layer sets up over the area. The rest of the week will be under the influence of rounds of convection each day. The max coverage and probability will be during the day or afternoon each day with some convection lingering into the overnight. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Earlier convection north of I-80 has largely dissipated, leaving MVFR ceilings in their wake. To the south, VFR conditions prevail. Southwest wind around 10 MPH will persist through the night. Past 12Z, confidence in the overall progression of events is rather low, as mesoscale influences will play a heavy role in the outcome. A few scattered showers appear possible under continued VFR ceilings around 12Z, and these were handled via TEMPO groups. Daytime mixing should once again allow southwest gusts between 20 and 30 knots from late morning through the afternoon. The greatest uncertainty lies with potential convective development this afternoon. This will depend on the breakdown of an upstream ridge and how well a warm layer aloft sets up. A weaker upstream ridge could allow a line of convection to set up to our northwest by midday and sink across the region through the afternoon. However, a stronger ridge and warm layer aloft could suppress convective development either partially or almost totally. In any case, save for ongoing MVFR ceilings into the afternoon north of I-80, VFR should be the predominant condition. Did continue with 3-hour PROB30 groups for the potential afternoon convective line noted above. Again, timing and even occurrence of convection are low to medium confidence at best. Another round of convection may approach after midnight from the north, but elected to leave out mention of that for now to allow today's events to play out. Outlook... Restrictions from showers and thunderstorms will persist into the weekend, largely dependent on convection activity developing over the Great Lakes and Midwest. && .CLIMATE... See below for record max highs and max lows this week: Tuesday, April 15th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 86F (1883) 64F (1896) Wheeling, WV: 87F (1941) 60F (2014) Morgantown, WV: 86F (2018) 66F (2014) New Philadelphia, OH: 82F (2023) 56F (2006) Zanesville, OH: 87F (1941) 60F (1899) DuBois, PA: 86F (2023) 60F (2014) Wednesday, April 16th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 85F (1883) 61F (1967) Wheeling, WV: 82F (2010) 59F (2002) Morgantown, WV: 86F (1993) 65F (1967) New Philadelphia, OH: 82F (2010) 58F (2023) Zanesville, OH: 85F (1941) 61F (1972) DuBois, PA: 79F (2003) 56F (2002) Thursday, April 17th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 86F (2002) 63F (2017) Wheeling, WV: 86F (1945) 64F (2002) Morgantown, WV: 88F (2002) 64F (2012) New Philadelphia, OH: 85F (2002) 62F (2017) Zanesville, OH: 86F (2002) 65F (1912) DuBois, PA: 82F (2012) 59F (1976) Friday, April 18th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 87F (1896) 63F (1896) Wheeling, WV: 84F (2002) 64F (2002) Morgantown, WV: 89F (1976) 64F (1960) New Philadelphia, OH: 84F (2002) 60F (1982) Zanesville, OH: 88F (1896) 66F (1896) DuBois, PA: 83F (2002) 60F (2002) Saturday, April 19th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 90F (1896) 64F (1896) Wheeling, WV: 85F (2025) 63F (2002) Morgantown, WV: 92F (1976) 64F (2013) New Philadelphia, OH: 86F (1976) 57F (2019) Zanesville, OH: 92F (1896) 66F (1896) DuBois, PA: 87F (1976) 61F (2002) && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Shallenberger AVIATION...CL  078 FXUS63 KPAH 140558 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1258 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures will approach or exceed records today and Wednesday and again on Friday. Both record high temperatures and record warm minimum temperatures are expected. - Widespread showers and thunderstorms are likely (70-100%) Thursday morning and afternoon. Beneficial rainfall amounts of 0.50 to 1.0 inches are forecast. - A cold front will bring another good chance (50-70%) of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday. Rainfall amounts will be around 0.10 to 0.25 of an inch, with locally higher amounts possible. - Temperatures will cool back to typical mid-April values Sunday and Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1257 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Stout H5 ridging over the southeast CONUS will keep the region very warm and mainly dry today into most of Wednesday. Cannot rule out a stray shower the far west and northwest parts of the forecast area. As temperatures at 850mb rise to 17-19C (around the 99th percentile), high temperatures today and Wednesday will climb into the middle to upper 80s, with overnight low temperatures only in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Both record high temperatures and record warm minimum temperatures are probable. Wednesday night into Thursday, numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop to our north and west ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. While the cold front will not quite make it into the area, the latest model guidance is indicating that an inverted trough will pass over the region Thursday, which will act to sustain the precipitation. As a result, rainfall totals have increased a bit from yesterday, now roughly 0.5-1.0" by Thursday evening. The timing and messy storm modes do not appear to be favorable for severe thunderstorms at this time. Friday will be see another day of near record warmth as the ridging briefly expands over the region. High temperatures will again reach the middle to upper 80s, and a few locations may reach 90 degrees. The ridge will begin to break down more significantly Saturday into next week, as troughing over the Upper Midwest dips southward into the area. A surface cold front will pass through the area Saturday afternoon and evening, bringing another good chance of showers and thunderstorms (too early to tell if this would pose a severe risk) and more beneficial light to moderate rain. Drier and seasonably mild conditions are forecast Sunday into early next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1115 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 VFR conditions expected through the end of the period. Mostly high clouds across portions of the area overnight and tomorrow, though some few-sct mid to low VFR clouds can't be ruled out tomorrow. Winds will remain elevated overnight out of the south and southwest at most of the terminals. Winds will be breezy and gusty again tomorrow. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1257 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Record high temperatures for today and Wednesday: PAH: 87 (2006) | 88 (1977) EVV: 86 (2010) | 86 (2024) CGI: 86 (1992) | 87 (1992) POF: 89 (1929) | 88 (1936) MDH: 85 (2010) | 87 (2024) && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DWS AVIATION...HICKFORD CLIMATE...DWS