409 FXUS61 KBGM 140601 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 201 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Added more chances of precipitation for this morning into late morning just in case the line of showers and thunderstorms move through earlier in the day. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Threat for strong to severe thunderstorms today and tomorrow, with isolated hail and strong wind gusts possible along with heavy rain. 2) The warm pattern through the week will break down this weekend and be replaced by much colder air late in the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... The next couple of days will be warm and humid for this time of the year with 30+ knots of shear so there will be chances for some stronger thunderstorms today and tomorrow. The synoptic forcing today is very week with just a subtle 500 mb shortwave passing through so that likely will not be the main driver of the convection but will help supply the shear (35-45 knots) and steeper mid level lapse rates of around 7 C/km. Looking at what happened today in the plains, there was a cluster of supercells that developed in NW Kansas that has developed into an MCS early this morning. This was something that no models had today and even the 0Z models have struggled to handle its evolution. Given that these storms are associated with the mid level wave passing through today, it leads to less confidence in how the evolution of the storms will be today. the HRRR has trended towards an earlier line as the subsequent runs after the 0Z run have slowly started to resolve the MCS a bit better. If this does end up being the case, we may have a line of thunderstorms move through in the morning which would occur before the best CAPE development and would help stabilize the atmosphere leading to a lower end potential. Given the shear in place, a few isolated strong gusts to 50 or 60 mph would be possible with the late morning line of storms. It is possible that the rain moves through early enough for some destabilization in the mid to late afternoon though by then, the steeper mid level lapse rates are moving east. Tomorrow is unfortunately a similar story as today in regards to how the storms may evolve. The synoptic forcing is once again weak with the primary driver of the mid level shortwave is going to be the development of MCS's in the plains this afternoon and overnight. Still, models are in better agreement that there will be more CAPE tomorrow (>1000J/kg of surface cape) and better shear (>40 knots of 0-6 km shear) so if the timing of the mid level wave that triggers the storms is early to mid afternoon, strong thunderstorms are likely and isolated supercells are possible. We will still be in this warm SW flow pattern with frequent shortwaves on Thursday. Models do have more showers and better forcing so that looks to limit CAPE but still will need to be watched with 40+ knots of shear still present. KEY MESSAGE 2... While this warm, early summer like pattern persist through the first half of the weekend, Sunday into early next week has continued to trend cooler. High latitude blocking in Greenland will help a deep late season trough to dig into the Northeast US. The GFS and AIGFS both are bringing 516 to 520 dm 500 mb heights which is well below climatology for mid to late April. 850 mb temperatures also have a high probability of <-5C temperatures for Monday into Tuesday next week, with probabilities >80% for the region and >95% for CNY and north. With the Great Lakes likely warming up some over the rest of this week, it is possible they would be warm enough to generate lake effect snow with this pattern. -10C 850 mb temperature probabilities are even getting to near 50% for the Southern Tier and north and if that occurs, our day time highs may stay in the 30s to low 40s early next week. As of now, the pattern with the cold is looking dry (outside of lake effect) so despite the cold, a widespread snow event is unlikely at this time. There is still time for the pattern to change as the evolution of the Greenland blocking pattern is all over the place but a cooler stretch of weather is likely, just how cold will it get is uncertain. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Conditions will be VFR to start but there is potential for fog to develop at the Central NY terminals. Guidance bring restrictions to RME and SYR, though there is some models that bring restrictions to ELM and BGM as well. While ITH seems to be spared, there is uncertainty there as well given that the crossover temp has been reached. For this TAF set, fog was added to all CNY terminals except ITH with IFR restrictions possible at RME, SYR, and ELM. There are some showers that are moving across western-central NY and PA. Models want to dissipate these showers as they move into the region but a couple have popped up. Rain showers were not put into the TAFs for the early morning hours but will be watched closely for any needed tempos. By 12z, the fog should lift and should be followed by some quite hours during through the mid-morning. Then there is potential for two rounds of showers and thunderstorms: one around midday and another later in the afternoon. However, there is uncertainty as some models do not have the earlier round. These lines also weaken by the time they get to AVP. Tempo and Prob30 groups were used to highlight this potential. Additional adjustments will be needed for timing, especially as conditions evolve later today. All shower and thunderstorm activity will wrap up this evening. VFR conditions will continue though MVFR to Fuel Alt ceilings drop into SYR and RME around 00z Wednesday. Winds will be light and variable this morning but will pick up throughout the day. Winds will be southerly to start the day but then become more westerly later this evening. Peak gusts of 20 to 25 kts are expected though higher gusts will be possible in any thunderstorms. Outlook: Wednesday through Friday...Restrictions possible from showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Saturday...Additional restrictions look to arrive along with showers and storms late in the day Saturday. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AJG AVIATION...BTL  957 FXUS66 KHNX 140601 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 1101 PM PDT Mon Apr 13 2026 && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A gradual warming and drying trend expected this week. 2. Another system brings stronger winds to the region by Thursday. 3. Low confidence for another storm system to move through the region by next Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Calm weather is expected to set in as the trough that caused the thunderstorms from the last few days moves further to the east, with strong winds expected along the Mojave Slopes through the early morning. By tomorrow, it will have mostly exited the region and warmer temperatures and drier conditions are expected for our CWA through Thursday. That day will see another trough move through Nevada and lead to strong winds for the Sierra Nevada crest and into the Mojave Desert Slopes as it brushes our area. Slight cooling of temperatures are also expected from this trough, though due to the brief period of time this system will interact with the air aloft, the warming trend is expected to start back up by Friday as ridging takes over from the trough. Looking to next week, a third trough may move through the region by next Monday, potentially more head on than the previous system, though current ensemble model are in low agreement as to where the trough is likely to come in, as well as how deep it might be. If this trough were to make a more direct pass through Central California, most model members have precipitation mainly in the mountains and foothills, with the Valley and Desert fairly dry. Confidence is expected to increase over the next few days, though as of current runs, confidence remains low for additional precipitation for the region next week. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions expected across the area for the next 24 hours. Wind gusts approaching 40 kts in the Mojave Desert Slopes through 12Z Tuesday. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 5 AM PDT Tuesday for CAZ338. && $$ EW weather.gov/hanford  179 FXUS64 KLZK 140603 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 103 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 201 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 -Well above normal temperatures likely through Friday -Occasional chances for showers and thunderstorms will be in the forecast through Saturday -Expected QPF through the period remains low and will not greatly benefit short and long term rainfall deficits in place -A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from mid-week through Saturday, with the main focus across portions of northwest Arkansas && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 201 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible today as some weak shortwave energy traverses the SW flow aloft. Much of this activity will be seen from southwest to central to eastern portions of the state during the afternoon hours, with N/NW Arkansas likely remaining dry. Similar to yesterday's forecast, did lower POPs given expected coverage. Dry conditions will be seen on Tuesday across the state as the H500 ridge over the Gulf expands northward a bit. Well above normal temperatures are expected on Tuesday and through much of this week. Rain chances will increase Wed-Wed night, especially across northwest Arkansas as a stronger H500 shortwave trough lifts northeast from the Four Corners toward the Great Lakes. With the mid- level ridge persisting to the southeast, precip will struggle to expand eastward across AR Wed night through Thursday. But, with this trough being stronger than recent systems the ridge may retreat enough to allow meaningful precip to move across the state. There will be some potential for strong to severe thunderstorms during this timeframe, but the main focus looks to be across far northwest Arkansas and areas just to the west and north. A more robust H500 shortwave trough should move east across the middle of the country Fri-Sat. With a strong cold front at the sfc expected to accompany this system, more widespread precip is expected during this timeframe. In the wake of the trough, N-NW flow aloft will be in place and sfc ridging will build in from the NW. This will provide cooler temperatures by late weekend into the beginning of next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1258 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR CIGs should become MVFR CIGs near 12z due to moisture advection/formation of stratus deck from the W and SW. CIGs should improve mid-day into the early afternoon on Tues. Winds will be Srly around 10-15 kts overnight, increasing to 20-25 kts in the afternoon out of the S/SW. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 84 67 84 66 / 10 10 20 70 Camden AR 85 62 84 63 / 0 0 10 40 Harrison AR 83 66 77 62 / 20 40 60 90 Hot Springs AR 82 63 82 62 / 10 10 20 70 Little Rock AR 84 66 84 65 / 10 0 10 60 Monticello AR 86 64 85 66 / 0 0 0 20 Mount Ida AR 81 64 79 62 / 10 20 30 80 Mountain Home AR 84 66 80 63 / 20 20 50 90 Newport AR 85 67 85 67 / 10 0 10 50 Pine Bluff AR 86 64 85 65 / 0 0 0 30 Russellville AR 84 65 81 64 / 10 20 30 80 Searcy AR 85 64 84 64 / 10 0 10 60 Stuttgart AR 85 66 84 67 / 0 0 10 40 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....99 AVIATION...70  228 FXUS63 KDDC 140604 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 104 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong southwesterly winds today; critical fire weather conditions - Elevated to critical fire conditions Thursday - Varying levels of convective chances this week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 103 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Strong southwesterly winds and a critical fire weather day is expected across the entire forecast area today as strong southwesterly flow will be present with the approach of trough. With efficient mixing, expect area-wide southwesterly winds 25-35 mph with gusts 25-50 mph. The strongest of the winds are expected in southwest zones. This is where travel could become rather difficult for high-profile vehicles and greatest fire spread of any potential fires. See fire weather discussion for details on the fire weather potential today and Thursday. Precipitation chances throughout the forecast period continue to be pretty sparse. However, placement of the dry line will dictate the level of convection that could occur within our eastern forecast area this week. For today, short-range guidance is struggling with the placement of the retreating dry line early this morning, and therefore uncertainty will exist on placement throughout this afternoon. In any case, the greatest chance for any thunderstorms will be in our far east where we currently have 20-30% POPs this afternoon and into tonight. Any severe weather risk will be conditional given the low confidence of storm occurrence. However, if storms are able to develop, the primary risk would be large hail. Another system is expected to eject into the Plains Friday, bringing our next best chance at thunderstorms. Again, dry line placement will be key and POPs are favored in our eastern zones (20-40%). Global ensembles currently have this wave ejecting with a more neutral orientation. This scenario would allow some severe convective potential. Though if this would be able to come out more negative, a higher-end severe risk could be realized. Until then for now, SPC continues to carry a 15% severe probability touching our eastern counties. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1107 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 VFR conditions will persist throughout the TAF period. Winds have subsided significantly across the area as we continue to move into the late evening and overnight hours. Weaker winds of sustained 10-15 knots will continue through the night. Another day of strong southwesterly winds are expected today, with winds increasing markedly after 14-15z. Expect sustained winds 20-25 knots with gusts 35-40 knots. Winds will again diminish quickly with the sunset after 00z to 10-15 knots sustained. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 100 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Red Flag Warning is in effect for the entire forecast area Tuesday. Strong southwesterly winds are expected to increase this afternoon area-wide 25-35 mph with gusts 35-50 mph, with the strongest winds in southwest portions of the forecast area. RH values will be 10-20% across the entire area. Our far eastern zones are a bit more marginal regarding how dry it will be as it will be dependent on where the dry line placement is. Some guidance is a tad further west, but given this uncertainty and the strong winds, keeping everyone in the warning. We look to get a bit of a reprieve on Wednesday from fire weather potential with expected weaker winds, but RH values will still be quite low. Thursday will feature the return of fire weather risk with a Fire Weather Watch now in place for areas west of Route 283. This is the zone with the best overlap of breezy conditions with gusts 25 mph and greater and RH values 15% or less. Given the conditions, both Tuesday and Thursday will have the medium to high chance of any potential fires being able to spread quickly. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081- 084>090. && $$ DISCUSSION...Bennett AVIATION...Bennett FIRE WEATHER...Bennett  034 FXUS65 KBOU 140605 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1205 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Snow expected Tuesday for the high mountains, with a good chance of light rain showers over the rest of the CWA into Tuesday evening. - Critical fire weather conditions for southern lincoln county this afternoon. - Widespread critical fire weather conditions over the plains Thursday afternoon. - Next system moves in Thursday night into Saturday morning with the promise of measurable precipitation for all the forecast area. Perhaps cold enough for snow on the plains. && .DISCUSSION /Through Monday/... Issued at 1159 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Current satellite pictures show the upper closed low centered over the northwestern corner of Arizona at this hour. Currently, there is decent convection over western Colorado, with even a few lightning strikes over the Four Corners. A cold front has pushed westward across all the plains this evening and is currently moving up into the foothills with north and northeasterly winds behind it. However, temperatures across the plains are still in the 50s this late evening. The upper trough is progged to move northeastward slowly across Colorado Tuesday into Wednesday morning. The best synoptic scale energy moves across our CWA from 18Z to about 03Z late Tuesday. The instability is weak according to the soundings. The best QPF with the system starts late Tuesday morning in the mountains and goes into early evening. Snowfall amounts above 9,500 feet could get close to 10 inches total in a couple spots from now through Tuesday evening, but the majority of the higher mountains would only see 3-6 inches. It doesn't warrant any highlights. Over the plains, the system should bring 40-60% chances of rain showers from 18Z to 06Z. The northern border plains could see 0.25 of rain from it at best, with less over the rest of the low lands. Will end the pops over the plains before sunrise Wednesday morning. However, a few alpine showers may linger into Wednesday morning. Temperatures should only reach the 60s for highs over the plains today, warmest over the far eastern border. There is weak upper ridging over the CWA Wednesday with a dry airmass in place and temperatures still in the 60s over most of the plains. Increasing southwesterly flow is expected Thursday with a dry airmass and temperatures warming well into the 70s over the plains. This will increase fire weather conditions significantly by afternoon. The southwesterly flow aloft continues Thursday night well into Friday, with the next upper trough pushing across Colorado Friday afternoon through Friday night. Models still show this system to be stronger with colder air available as well as more moisture and measurable precipitation for all of the CWA Friday and Friday night. Temperatures are warming a tad from previous models, but snow is not out of the question for most areas. We can only hope for some much needed measurable precipitation. For the later days, Saturday through Tuesday, models show west- northwesterly flow aloft behind the exiting trough on Saturday, then upper ridging moves in from Saturday night and continues in place through Monday. Southwesterly flow aloft moves in later Monday through Tuesday as the next upper trough approaches from the west. There may be lingering light showers over the mountains on Saturday, but overall the 4 day period looks pretty dry with temperatures warming up to above seasonal normals, once again, Sunday through Tuesday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday/... Issued at 1159 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Weak frontal passage brought a shift to E-NE winds. Those winds should attempt to become more SE 08Z-12Z in normal post-frontal fashion, but also a 30-40% chance they just go light and VRB. If they becoming light/VRB, we'd expect a return to a more E/SE direction again toward 16Z due to brief diurnal heating before convection starts to mess with the winds. Models are fairly consistent showing showers developing over the Front Range Foothills by 18Z and then pushing E-NE across the plains. Given the dry sub-cloud layer, we expect a gusty W-NW outflow to originate in the foothills and push east ahead of the showers. That shift could reach the airports as early as 18Z or as late as 20Z and is reflected in the TAF. We'll also see a brief shower or two likely but again these will be relatively high based so only light rain for the most part, and gusty VRB winds possible as well. DCAPE is only about 400 J/kg so we'll temper the VRB gusty winds down to 30 kts and that may even be a little heavy handed. The chance of any thunderstorms at the TAF sites is only 10-20% given limited MLCAPE <200 J/kg. Regarding ceilings, it's not entirely impossible we see a passing sprinkle and cloud bases down to 7000 feet with this first wave of moisture 08Z-12Z. There's also a chance cigs drop to 6000-7000 feet with the showers in the area 19Z-02Z, but overall visual landing conditions should persist through that period. Only a 10-20% chance that we drop to less than 6000 feet. Skies will then clear toward 06Z Wednesday. Lighter northerly winds are expected to develop around 00Z-01Z, and then transition to more southwesterly toward 06Z Wednesday as the clearing allows a light drainage/downslope component to develop. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1139 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 In spite of the cooler and more moist airmass expected over the forecast area on Tuesday, southern Lincoln County, Zone 247, still looks to have critical fire weather conditions in place for a few hours during the afternoon hours due to humidity levels dropping into the 12-17 percent range and winds gusting as high as 40 mph. Fuels remain extremely dry in these areas. Looking ahead, critical fire weather conditions look widespread across all the plains Thursday afternoon. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Tuesday for COZ247. && $$ DISCUSSION...66 AVIATION...20 FIRE WEATHER...66  407 FXUS64 KSHV 140606 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 106 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1215 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Quiet overnight with much the same on our Tuesday with mostly cloudy skies becoming partly cloudy are warmer readings. - Chance for some showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday with an upper low riding over the Plains on SW flow. - The weekend cold front is looking earlier on Saturday with more needed rainfall and cooler readings Sunday into Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1215 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A mild overnight period with partly cloudy skies around midnight and more low clouds arriving with daybreak. That SW flow aloft lingers, but without much in the way of lift for any rain on Tuesday except north of I-30. Here a few showers may develop early in the day or with mid to late heating. Coverage will isolated to perhaps SE OK. Little change for tomorrow evening and overnight from what will be going on right now. However, an upper low will slide up along the eastern edge of the long wave troughing over much of the western U.S. and this feature will tighten the gradient with S winds Tuesday veering a bit more to gusty SW on Wednesday. There is a decent chance for showers and thunderstorms overnight for our I-30 corridor and then expanding down over NE TX and much of the area. Deep east Texas and most Parishes will miss out this time around as the big upper ridge has become semi-permanent over the eastern Gulf of America. This low will be filling/weakening and just does not have the same dig as our last push. Rainfall amounts could be near an inch for a loose average over our I-30 corridor. The WPC has a Marginal Risk for excessive amounts over our NW 1/3 of counties. Also the SPC continues a Marginal Risk for their day 3 outlook over similar real estate for our concerns. Much lighter amounts may reach down from Nacogdoches to Shreveport and Bossier up to El Dorado. All very consistent on the mid to short term models runs. Then as that low passes in the SW flow, we will wait again Thursday and Friday with more gusty S/SW winds and mostly dry conditions. Can't rule out a few pop up showers, but we may be capped in the mid levels for little if any. The approaching cold front for Saturday is a little ahead of recent runs, shifting our winds to W/NW late morning for I-30 and around lunch for Shreveport and much of I-20, and clearing our LA Parishes by sunset. Rainfall is still looking good with the WPC outlook carrying close to an inch along and south of I-20 for our entire corridor from TX across LA. Rainfall still looks pre and post frontal, ending early on Sunday. Then the NW winds will usher back cooler and drier air for a run of much closer to average readings, and a few below average for mid April with generally 50s and 70s for a few days. /24/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 For the 14/06Z TAF period... While VFR conditions persist beneath cirrus cigs (and some lingering cu over SW AR), MVFR cigs have begun to develop over SE and ECntrl TX, and will quickly spread NNE into much of the region during the overnight hours, affecting the E TX terminals between 06-10Z, and TXK/SHV/ELD around 11-12Z. While some stratocu will develop farther E after daybreak across NE LA, any cigs will be brief, with the MVFR cigs again slow to lift until late morning before returning to VFR by midday/early afternoon. The cu should eventually scatter out by mid-afternoon, before diminishing around/shortly after 00Z. Some cirrus may linger though through the end of the TAF period across NE TX/SE OK/SW AR/NW LA, but additional low MVFR cigs should again redevelop by 06Z Wednesday over SE TX/SW LA, and quickly spread N into the area through daybreak. S winds 5-10kts overnight will increase to 10-15kts with gusts to 22kts after 15Z. /15/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1240 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Spotter activation will not be needed until late Wednesday. /24/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 65 85 68 86 / 0 10 30 10 MLU 62 88 65 89 / 0 0 10 20 DEQ 62 80 61 83 / 10 40 80 20 TXK 66 84 67 86 / 10 20 60 20 ELD 61 85 64 86 / 0 0 30 30 TYR 67 83 68 86 / 0 30 40 10 GGG 65 84 66 86 / 0 10 40 10 LFK 65 85 66 88 / 0 10 10 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...24 AVIATION...15  048 FXUS61 KCLE 140608 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 208 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The bulk of the forecast remains unchanged regarding the upcoming systems. It is worth noting that confidence in any severe potential remains low, but is expected to increase with future model runs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Multiple rounds of convection possible in the next 48 hours, but there remains a high level uncertainty in the potential across the area. 2) A strong low pressure system is expected to impact the area late week into the weekend. 3) Above average temperatures are expected to persist through Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A boundary slowly sagging south today should stall just north of the area. Multiple low pressure system are expected to travel along this boundary through Thursday, resulting in multiple chances for precipitation and thunderstorms. There are two notable periods of potential strong to severe storms in the next 48 hours, but there remains little confidence in the evolution of either system. The first push of storms is expected late tonight into Tuesday morning as decaying convection from the northern Great Lakes moves into the area. Given the timing, limited instability will be present, however a strong LLJ of 35-45 knots will assist in maintaining some storms. Cannot rule out a couple strong to severe thunderstorms, but highest confidence in this occurring would be across the northwestern portion of the area. Primary threat will be wind, although hail is not out of the question. Right now, SPC highlights this potential over the area with a D1 Marginal Risk. The tricky part of this forecast is figuring out how quickly this morning convection pushes east and allows the atmosphere to rebound ahead of the next system. Some hi-res guidance, including the HRRR, suggest that there will be two lines of convection in the morning which would result in storms lingering much longer. On the flip side, models such as the ARW having convection moving east of the area by late morning. If the HRRR is correct, thunderstorms will likely still occur overnight but much of the severe potential will remain limited. If the ARW is correct, then strong to severe thunderstorms across the area is possible late Tuesday evening into the overnight hours. With convection departing earlier in the day, ample WAA and deep layer moisture will be able to surge across the area, enhance by daytime heating and increasing instability. This should provide a decent environment for strong to severe storms to occur with the primary concern being strong to damaging winds. The only common thing amongst the spread in models is that the convection that does push into the area will likely be decaying remnants of severe weather expected across the upper Midwest tomorrow. SPC currently has a D2 Slight Risk to highlight this potential threat. Stay tuned for the latest forecast as this system continues to evolve and models hopefully get into a better agreement in handling what will happen in the next 48 hours. KEY MESSAGE 2... A deepening upper level trough is expected to push south across the central CONUS on Friday into the weekend, moving a strongest low pressure system and associated boundaries through the area. This system may once again pose a severe weather risk, although confidence is fairly low this far out. There is high confidence that areawide showers will occur this weekend as a strong cold front moves east. On the backside of that boundary, temperatures will once again dip, although this time to near normal, with highs falling into the 50s by Sunday. KEY MESSAGE 3... Temperatures are expected to remain above normal for the bulk of this week with highs consistently in the 70s, possibly touching 80 at times. Overnight lows will remain mild with temperatures only falling into the 60s. CPC has highlighted the area in a potential for prolonged above average temperatures for the next two week. It is worth noting that after the cold front Saturday, temperatures will briefly fall back to near normal (in the 50s) before once again increasing next week. && .AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/... Conditions have improved to VFR behind showers and thunderstorms from earlier this evening. Active stretch of weather expected through the TAF period with multiple possible rounds of thunderstorms, some strong to severe possible. The first round of thunderstorms will enter from the northwest this afternoon around 15Z/Tue and push southeast across terminals through ~19-20Z/Tue. Have timed out impacts to terminals with the initial round of convection using TEMPO groups. The development on the next round of thunderstorms may hinge on what occurs this afternoon. As of right now, these thunderstorms will develop along and east of CLE around 03Z/Wed with a stronger area of thunderstorms pushing southward across Lake Erie starting at ~04-06Z/Wed. For the TAF, opted for a PROB30 group at TOL/FDY and the 30-hour CLE TAF for the evening/overnight possible convection. Strong to damaging wind gusts and IFR/MVFR reductions to cigs/vis will be possible in any stronger thunderstorm that moves over a terminal in this timeframe. Elevated southwesterly winds 12-18 knots with gusts 20-30 knots will remain in place through this evening. Highest wind gusts will occur this afternoon and in any convection. Winds shift southerly tonight and diminish to 10 knots or less through the overnight hours. Outlook...Periods of non-VFR conditions are expected in showers and thunderstorms through Thursday. && .MARINE... Southerly to southwesterly winds remain elevated between 15-20 knots through today. Given the offshore component, the highest wave heights will remain across the open waters of Lake Erie. Southerly to southwesterly winds 12-18 knots will remain across the lake through the end of the week as multiple systems move through the region. Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances will be present through Thursday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...04 AVIATION...13 MARINE...13  242 FXUS64 KSJT 140610 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 110 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorm chances will persist Monday into Wednesday, with a threat for severe storms each day. - A cold front is expected on Saturday, bringing low rain chances and considerably cooler temperatures for the upcoming weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1256 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Another day with isolated to scattered thunderstorms expected to develop this afternoon and evening. A dryline will again shift east to near the western border of the Big Country and Concho Valley, with CAPE values of 3000+ ahead of the dryline. Again though, convergence along the dryline is relatively weak and there are questions on just where and how widespread any convection will be. As we have talked about the last few days, it looks like a weak shortwave may approach the Southern Plains later this afternoon and evening as well, although additional support from it is still uncertain as well. CAMs are all over the place, although most of them show considerably less convection than it looked like a few days ago. With that said, the high model blend POPs (60-80%) just seems overdone for this afternoon and evening with almost none of the CAMs showing convection this widespread. Will decrease POPs back to something in the 30-50% range for most area. Given the instability and much like Monday, any storm that can develop will likely become severe with large to very large hail possible. Low level jet increases to 35-45kts this evening and this may keep any storm alive into the overnight hours. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 1256 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Expect a repeat for Wednesday as a lazy dryline will fire off a few to isolated thunderstorms during the late afternoon and evening hours. The combination of moderate/strong instability and good deep layer shear will result in a few severe storms. Looks like mainly quiet weather for Thursday across the area as weak upper level ridging will be in control. The next strong storm system with a sharper dryline will move into the Central and Southern Plains Friday. Looks like the more organized severe weather will remain north of our area. However, isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across west central Texas during the late afternoon into Friday night. A cold front moves south across the area Saturday with cooler and dry weather this weekend into early next week. Temperatures will be slightly above normal this week. Please keep up with the latest weather information as the month of April is severe weather season. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1151 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Satellite shows that the low clouds are not developing quite as quickly as they have in previous nights, so will delay the onset a few hours. Still expect most areas to see MVFR cigs by sunrise and persist into the mid/late morning hours before lifting and dissipating. Gusty south winds will also persist and will gust over 20kts at times. Thunderstorm chances are still a question, with considerable uncertainty on timing and location. With at least most of the activity holding off until after 00Z, will go ahead and leave out of the forecast for now and see if some better consensus can be achieved. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 82 65 84 60 / 60 80 50 10 San Angelo 81 63 85 60 / 50 60 50 10 Junction 82 62 80 61 / 30 40 60 10 Brownwood 81 64 78 61 / 40 60 70 20 Sweetwater 83 65 87 59 / 50 60 40 0 Ozona 77 63 82 60 / 50 60 40 10 Brady 79 64 77 62 / 30 50 70 20 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION...07  103 FXUS62 KCHS 140612 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 212 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The Aviation Section has been updated for the 06Z TAF issuance. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Dry weather and above-normal temperatures expected to continue through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry weather and above-normal temperatures expected to continue through the weekend. No significant changes to the forecast with prominent ridging aloft and subtropical high pressure at the surface. This setup will yield a rain-free forecast with well-above average temperatures across the region for the next 7 days. Temperatures will range into the mid 80s to low 90s today through the weekend. These values would be on the order of 10 degrees (or more) above normal. High temperatures could approach the daily records this afternoon, with the best chances of reaching records late this week and into the weekend (see Climate section below). The beaches will feel considerably cooler (possibly 10 to 15 degrees cooler) with onshore flow and water temperatures remaining in the mid-60s. The combination of well above normal temperatures and no rainfall will only serve to further worsen ongoing Extreme (D3) drought conditions highlighted by the U.S. Drought Monitor. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 14/06z TAF Discussion: KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR for much of the 06z TAF period. Some shallow ground fog could develop just before daybreak. The highest risk for fog will occur at KSAV and KJZI. No meaningful impacts are expected, although a brief period of MVFR vsbys could occur. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR. && .MARINE... The forecast philosophy remains the same with no major concerns through Saturday. Bermuda high pressure centered well offshore will maintain its influence through the week with a broad southerly flow regime prevailing. This pattern favors sea breeze surges this afternoon, mainly along the land/sea interface and Charleston Harbor. Rip Currents: Today: A low risk for rip currents was maintained for all beaches for today given slightly lower swell heights are anticipated. With sea breeze enhanced winds likely at the beaches with ongoing 10 second periods, the situation is very close to tipping into the moderate risk range. The situation will be monitored throughout the day and an upgrade to a moderate risk may eventually be needed. Wednesday: Slightly higher swell heights are poised to arrive Wednesday with ongoing periods of around 10 seconds, particularly along the Georgia and far southern South Carolina beaches. A moderate risk for rip currents was highlighted for all beaches even though local rip current scores are running right around the low/moderate risk threshold. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: April 14: KSAV: 90/1922 April 16: KSAV: 92/1967 April 17: KCHS: 91/1967 KCXM: 86/2006 KSAV: 95/1967 April 18: KCHS: 92/1967 KSAV: 93/1967 April 19: KCHS: 91/1995 KCXM: 90/1917 KSAV: 92/1968 Record High Minimum Temperatures: April 19: KCHS: 66/1975 KCXM: 70/2002 KSAV: 69/1880 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Dennis  369 FXUS63 KSGF 140613 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 113 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy southerly winds will occur today and Tuesday, with southerly winds gusting up to 30-40 mph at times each afternoon. - There is the potential for severe thunderstorms across the area on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday into Saturday. - Marginal excessive rainfall concerns through the week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A chaotic synoptic pattern is evident in satellite products and model data today. In the upper levels, high pressure in the Gulf is creating ridging over the southeast U.S. and southern east coast, with more zonal flow over the upper Midwest/Great Lakes/northern east coast. A deep cutoff low is moving onto the California coast, with several shortwaves coming out of the Pacific northwest. Lower into the midlevels, a low pressure center is evident over Nebraska, which extends down to the surface. Southwest flow across the Ozarks is observed at all levels due to this low to our northwest. As it pushes into western Iowa today and tomorrow, the pressure gradient in southern Missouri tightens (particularly in the west), and we can expect some breezy conditions. Though the southwest flow is streaming plenty of warmth and moisture into our area, the 12Z upper air sounding from this morning clearly shows a very stout inversion around 800 mb that is just not realistically breakable. The convective temperature is 86 degrees, and with plenty of cloud cover todays, highs are expected to top out around 80 degrees. It appears some models are not getting the message, as a few of them try to pop out some isolated showers toward south-central Missouri this afternoon. Some low (<20%) PoPs account for this low-probability scenario. Winds decrease a bit after sunset, but clouds largely stick around, limiting radiational cooling while WAA continues overnight. Temperatures will only cool to around 70 with some mid-60s in lower elevation areas. A dryline extends south from the low pressure center in Nebraska, bisecting Oklahoma and continuing all the way down into Mexico. This will be the feature to blame for our severe weather threat Tuesday. As drylines tend to do, it hangs out here for today, wiggling back and forth a bit with nearly boundary-parallel surface flow. While the inversion/cap is too strong to allow for appreciable convection today, tomorrow looks to overcome the (weaker) cap with a much more moist profile and a little more daytime warming with highs in the mid-80s (convective temperature closer to 80 Tuesday). Instability of 1000-2000+ J/kg, steep lapse rates, and deep layer shear 30-50 kts will support supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and (to a lesser extent) tornadoes. The risk would be highest in the west/northwest and diminish to the east/southeast. This activity is expected to initiate in the afternoon and remain severe into the evening before transitioning to sub-severe convection that lingers into Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Low pressure swings through the area Wednesday, bringing a cold front that disrupts the stagnant dryline. The rain from Tuesday night continues through the day Wednesday, but the extra push from the cold front Wednesday night will bring another round of severe potential. A brief window of uncapped instability focused along the western Missouri border will have the potential to support convection, though this is a bit more uncertain given the morning precipitation. At worst, convection will be capable of large hail and damaging winds. Rain may linger into Thursday morning, ending west to east as the cold front lifts away to the north and support for precipitation ends. Without a true frontal passage, highs Thursday are still around 80. We'll see some clearing and sun Thursday, a welcome break from the rain before a more aggressive cold front swings through Friday night, finally bringing a pattern change from the southwest flow we've had all week. The SPC highlights Slight- equivalent severe potential with this frontal passage, and if this holds, more details on timing and expected severe hazards will be forthcoming. The new airmass will be quite obvious once the rain passes on Saturday, with highs over the weekend only reaching the mid-60s for most. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1250 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Breezy southwest winds gusting 20-30kts continue through the period, with 25-30kts of LLWS overnight as the nocturnal LLJ strengthens. As temperatures in the low-levels cool overnight, the 2000-3000ft layer will saturate underneath an inversion and a layer of MVFR stratus will develop into the early morning hours. A cluster of showers and thunderstorms in central Missouri have sent an outflow boundary south across southern Missouri, with satellite obs indicating the MVFR layer along/behind the boundary is expanding, hence the choice of prevailing MVFR at KSGF. If this cold air layer does persist to reach KSGF, an amendment to expected MVFR conditions will be needed. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Record High Temperatures: April 13: KVIH: 87/2025 April 14: KSGF: 88/1936 KVIH: 87/2006 KUNO: 86/2024 April 15: KUNO: 84/9999 April 16: KVIH: 85/2006 April 17: KSGF: 87/1937 KVIH: 86/2004 KUNO: 87/2006 Record High Minimum Temperatures: April 13: KSGF: 65/1890 April 14: KSGF: 67/2006 April 15: KSGF: 63/2006 April 17: KSGF: 66/1976 && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Nelson LONG TERM...Nelson AVIATION...Camden CLIMATE...Camden  823 FXUS65 KTFX 140614 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1214 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong and gusty winds along the Rocky Mountain Front today, with strong winds shifting to the north-south orientated valleys of Southwest Montana on Wednesday. - A potent spring storm will bring accumulating snow to the Northern Rockies from Wednesday night through Thursday night, especially to Southwest Montana. - Below normal temperatures expected from Thursday through Friday. && .DISCUSSION... - Meteorological Overview: Unsettled conditions are expected across the Northern Rockies through the remainder of the work week as zonal flow (today) backs to the southwest (tonight and Wednesday) ahead of a potent upper level wave digging into the Pacific Northwest. This upper level wave will continue to dig southeast and over the Great Basin through the day on Thursday before lifting northeast and over the Central Rockies and High Plains on Friday. At the surface a Pacific front will sweep east across the Northern Rockies by Wednesday evening, with a cold front quickly plunging south during the early morning hours on Thursday. Northwest flow will settle in over the Northern Rockies from Friday night through Saturday night before upper level ridging builds back in for the second half of the weekend and start to the work week. - Moldan - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: Strong Winds Today... Lee-side surface trough along the Rocky Mountain Front will begin to sharpen through the day as low pressure develops over Southern Alberta, with the surface pressure gradient peaking at between 0.125 to 0.15 mb/km from the mid-morning through the late afternoon hours across this area. H700 flow per NAEFS analysis will increase and peak at between 40-60kts from the afternoon through evening hours, with BUFKIT soundings for areas along the immediate Rocky Mountain Front over this timeframe supporting ideal thermal profiles for mountian wave activity. With this all in mind the best opportunity for strong winds looks to be from 12-9PM today when the winds will be enhanced from both pressure gradient force, mountain wave activity and overall mixing. While it is possible that these strong winds work east of the US Hwy 89 corridor to areas like Mission Lake over this timeframe, current thinking is that the strongest winds will remain along and west of the US Hwy 89 corridor (i.e. Browning and East Glacier Areas). Latest NBM4.3 probabilities for gusts in excess of 55 mph for Browning and East Glacier are at a 70% and 95% chance respectively, 25% and 65% chance for 65 mph, and 5% and 20% chance for 75 mph. With High Wind Criteria for the Browning and East Glacier Areas being 75 mph we will not be issuing any High Wind highlights at this point in time. High Wind Potential on Wednesday... Climate anomaly indicators such as the ECMWF EFIs and NAEFS support a climatologically unusual to very unusual wind event, with respect to mid-April climatology, within the north-south orientated valleys of Southwest Montana (south of the I-90 corridor) from the late morning through afternoon hours on Wednesday. ECMWF EFIs with respect to sustained wind speeds generally range from 0.6 to 0.8 for these valley locations, with gusts being slightly higher at 0.7 to nearly 0.9. H700 winds per NAEFS analysis peak around 30-40kts during the afternoon hours, which is 2.5 standard deviations above normal. Most critically of all these winds will be orientated parallel with the valleys, which is likely to lead to enhanced speeds due to terrain funneling. Additionally, rain showers developing across Southwest Montana within an environment characterized by inverted-V soundings will be capable of producing strong and erratic winds. Given these factors a High Wind Watch has been issued for the Beaverhead and Madison River Valleys in Southwest Montana from 9AM to 6PM Wednesday. Accumulating Snow from Wednesday afternoon/evening through Thursday night.... Model guidance (deterministic and ensemble) has been consistent over the last 3-4 days in bringing accumulating snow (what) to the Northern Rockies and High Plains over the timeframe (when); however, this consistency has waffled in where the heaviest snow actually falls. Over the past 48 hours the aforementioned guidance has largely settled in on a solution that places the heaviest snow over the Tobacco Root, Gravelly, Centennial, Madison, and Gallatin Ranges from Wednesday evening through Friday morning; however, even mountains and lower elevation location outside of this area across Southwest through North Central Montana will see some accumulating snow. Latest ECMWF EFIs support the potential for a very unusual snowfall for the West Yellowstone Area and southern halves of the Madison and Gallatin Ranges, with unusual snowfall for the remainder of the Southwest Montana mountains and Glacier National Park mountains. NBM4.3 probabilities for snowfall accumulations of 9" or more for the Tobacco Root, Gravelly, Centennial, Madison, and Gallatin Ranges is in excess of a 70% chance, with between a 45-55% chance for Raynolds and Targhee Passes. Given these high probabilities and run-to-run consistency over the past 48 hours a Winter Storm Watch has been issued for the Gallatin and Madison County Mountains and Centennial Mountains; including the cities of Big Sky, West Yellowstone, Targhee Pass, and Raynolds Pass from Wednesday evening through Friday morning. This watch may need to be expanded to include the East Glacier Park Region given similar probabilities; however, given that Marias Pass has only a 35% chance for 9" of snow current thinking is that this area could be covered with a Winter Weather Advisory given that the most impactful snow will occur in GNP where the park is largely still closed. Otherwise, most locations have been trending towards Winter Weather Advisory level snowfall amounts, which can be addressed as the event draws nearer. - Moldan && .AVIATION... 14/06Z TAF Period A few isolated showers will affect the Havre/Harlem areas through about 10z Tue. Some patchy fog is possible where winds remain light tonight, but for now I kept the fog out of the terminals. Otherwise, the other main impact will be increasing surface winds later this morning and through the afternoon hours across the CWA. The windy conditions will continue into Tuesday evening. Brusda && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 59 41 59 29 / 0 20 30 80 CTB 53 33 54 22 / 10 10 10 50 HLN 61 37 59 28 / 0 10 40 90 BZN 61 35 59 28 / 10 10 40 100 WYS 47 27 45 27 / 10 10 90 100 DLN 57 35 57 28 / 0 10 40 100 HVR 64 38 62 28 / 0 10 10 80 LWT 60 36 58 28 / 10 20 50 90 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday evening through late Thursday night for Gallatin and Madison County Mountains and Centennial Mountains. High Wind Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon for Beaverhead and Western Madison below 6000ft- Madison River Valley. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls  000 FXUS61 KILN 140616 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 216 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... - Updated information and timing regarding Tuesday's severe weather threat. - Minor updates to details on episodic storm chances through the remainder of the week and this weekend's strong cold front. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday, primarily across west-central Ohio, with near record high temperatures possible. 2) Well above normal temperatures are expected through the rest of the week. Episodic shower and thunderstorm chances continue. 3) Strong cold front moves through this weekend, bringing cooler temperatures Sunday and Monday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1) A frontal boundary will stall out just to our northwest, providing the focus for multiple disturbances to travel along today through Tuesday. The first disturbance moves through Tuesday morning. Ongoing decaying convection from the overnight is expected to progress east/southeast into the ILN FA after daybreak on Tuesday. There is still high uncertainty on how things will progress as early morning storm maintenance isn't ideal due to lack of SB instability and paltry LL lapse rates. There is a chance that these factors overwhelm the LLJ (mentioned in a moment) and storms dissipate. However, a 40 knot 700mb LLJ stretched from southwest IN through north central OH may do enough for storm maintenance that we could see some convection re-strengthening or even re-developing by the time it reaches the far northwestern portions of ILN by noon-ish (Mercer/Auglaize counties). If storms can survive through noon, by then, SB instability and lapse rates across our CWA should rebound enough (combined with the strong wind profile) to support some stronger, more organized, storms particularly northwest of I-71. Timing would be between noon and 9PM or so. Main hazards on the table would be damaging winds and large hail. Meanwhile, all this uncertainty with storm development (or lack thereof) will have a big impact on temperatures Tuesday. If storms hold together and blow through the region during the afternoon hours, this would inhibit how warm we get and therefore, probably keep us from reaching temperature records. However, if storms struggle to hold together or if timing is pushed later, then we may be able to tickle high temperature records thanks to the strong WAA regime across our area. Tuesday the current records are CVG 84F (1887), CMH 86F (1883), and DAY 82F (1931,1941). Current forecasted highs for Tuesday are CVG 82F, CMH 82F, DAY 83F. As we head into Tuesday evening, a handful of CAMs pull some additional blowoff convection into our northern counties Tuesday overnight into Wednesday. Confidence on this is rather low at the moment, since any afternoon convection would likely turn over the environment and overnight timing would indicate a dissipation of SB instability and LL lapse rates. Though, cannot rule out some blowoff rain showers during the overnight hours along and north of I-70. KEY MESSAGE 2) The broader synoptic setup remains the same going into Wednesday and Thursday. The mid-level ridge will remain in place and will continue to support warm/moist air moving in from the southwest. CAMs once again suggest thunderstorm development along that frontal boundary to our northwest, with decaying storms progressing into our northern counties Wednesday daytime hours. The more robust severe threat looks to remain well to our northwest, though cannot rule out a stronger storm with damaging winds. However, with training storms and showers, cannot rule out an isolated area or two having some runoff or ponding issues with repeated rounds of rainfall, especially in west central Ohio. Wednesday night into Thursday, a cold front finally pulls through our area. This will result in drier conditions Thursday night and Friday. KEY MESSAGE 3) A strong trough digs into the Midwest and Great Lakes region at the end of the work week into the weekend. A strong cold front will pull through the region on Saturday bringing renewed chances for showers and thunderstorms. Strong CAA behind this front will bring much cooler air to the region, with 850mb temps dropping 20 to 25 C in 24 hours. Still a bit early to determine finer details, but early guidance suggests a return to temperatures in the 30s on Sunday night. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions remain in place through the overnight hours into Tuesday. A low level jet in place will keep LLWS in the TAFs through the remainder of the overnight hours. After sunrise, LLWS decreases as surface winds increase. Southwest winds around 15 knots will periodically gust to 30 knots throughout the day on Tuesday. Surface winds decrease by Tuesday evening, though will remain out of the southwest as we head into the overnight. With surface winds decreasing, we once again need to introduce LLWS as the LLJ remains cranking aloft. Now the tricky part... a handful of hi-res guidance suggests development of showers/storms Tuesday afternoon (16z through 00Z or so) as blowoff convection from our northwest moves into our area. Confidence on storm development is medium right now. Have hedged bets toward a short period of storms by incorporating PROB30s and TEMPO -TSRAs and MVFR conditions into all sites throughout the afternoon hours. However, be prepared for additional tweaks to timing as we see how things evolve. OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions and thunderstorms possible at times through Wednesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CA AVIATION...CA  552 FXUS63 KARX 140617 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 117 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe storms possible today, primarily for the southeastern half of the forecast area with large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rain causing flooding as the primary concerns. Secondary concern of isolated tornadoes. - Storm chances continue through Tuesday night and Wednesday, eventually ceasing temporarily through Thursday. Additional strong to severe storm chances return Friday afternoon/evening/night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1243 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Strong to Severe Storm Chances Today: As main line of storms progresses east-southeast of the local forecast area early this morning, return flow is quickly reinvigorating across central Iowa on early morning observations. The 60 degree isodrosotherm roughly collocated with 1" PWATs expected to return through most of the forecast area today aided by Rocky Mountain Low cyclogenesis progressing slightly northeast. Similar to Monday, the initial warm frontal passage increases low precipitation potential through the late morning/early afternoon before additional forcing and instabilitythrough the late afternoon and evening further increases local storm threat. Current confidence for northern extent is farther south than Monday, bifurcating the southeastern half of the forecast area with 1000+ J/kg (max 3000 J/kg) of SBCAPE concurrent with little to no SBCIN. The low loses conformity as it progresses northeast, becoming a meager low level trough bifurcating the forecast area. Resultant straight line hodographs exhibit unidirectional shear values capable of splitting supercells causing large hail and damaging winds primarily with an isolated tornado risk. Storm Chances Tonight Through Wednesday Night: High resolution models disagree on subsequent storm chances with most frequent storm solution seen in most recent HRRR (14.00Z) perpetuating storm chances Tuesday night, Wednesday morning, Wednesday afternoon, and Wednesday evening as the low level jet converges enhanced moisture along the locally lingering boundary until cyclogenesis and a low level trough passes overnight Wednesday into Thursday. While this is the most frequent outlier solution, most other high resolution models suggest some semblance of frequent storms through Wednesday evening. Similar to Today, large hail and damaging winds will be the main concern with isolated tornadoes possible Wednesday afternoon/evening given diurnal influence permitting convection potentially becoming surface based where storms set up. Storm Chances Return Friday: A reprieve in storm and precipitation chances on Thursday ceases Friday as another Rocky Mountain low enhances meridional low level moisture transport, returning strong to severe storm potential for some of the Upper Midwest. While the longer forecast hour limits overall confidence, enhanced cyclogenesis permits increased tapping into the anomalous moisture and accompanying instability, keeping precipitation probabilities high (70%+). && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1226 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The main line of storms through Monday evening covers the periphery of the local forecast area from northeast Iowa into southwest and central Wisconsin at 14.06Z TAF issuance. A narrow line of storms persists shifting east behind this main line, progressing just south of KRST TAF site towards KLSE TAF site. Resultant increase in TSRA duration at KLSE given ongoing observations. Subsequent low level saturation causes LIFR-VLIFR ceilings/visibilities with FG/BR into Tuesday morning. As the warm, moist air returns through late Tuesday morning, thunderstorm chances return from southwest to northeast primarily affecting smaller airports from northeast Iowa into southwest Wisconsin. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1226 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Anomalous moisture of the last couple days has resulted in flash flooding where strongest storms result in heavy rainfall. Additional river rises have prompted opening of river gates given expected additional daily precipitation. Highest observations from Monday's storms seen in a band from southeast Minnesota through western and central Wisconsin of 2"+. Therefore, primary area of concern for subsequent flooding would be in these areas should storms progresses as far north Tuesday. Confidence in rainfall reaching farther north into central Wisconsin Wednesday and Friday keeps heightened awareness for flooding concerns. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for WIZ041>044-053-055. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JAR AVIATION...JAR HYDROLOGY...JAR  271 FXUS62 KILM 140620 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 220 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Concern for adverse fire weather conditions later this week has increased. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Persistent dry weather and near-record warm temperatures may create fire weather hazards this week. 2) A cold front expected to arrive next Sunday will bring a low chance of showers and a cooler airmass early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Persistent dry weather and near-record warm temperatures may create fire weather hazards this week. A 500 mb ridge centered across Florida should expand northward over the next couple of days, leading to continued dry weather and above normal temperatures across the Carolinas. Ridging aloft will support Bermuda high pressure off the East Coast through the period. Model trends over the past 24 hours have shown essentially no change with the predicted 500 mb pattern or predicted 850 mb temperatures, leading to a forecast that looks almost identical to what we constructed this time yesterday. A weak upper trough passing by to our north on Friday could lead to a few more clouds, but warm and dry mid levels should keep the weather dry. High temperatures have a reasonably good chance of reaching 90 degrees inland on Wednesday, then exceeding 90 degrees on Friday and Saturday. Along the coast, south to southwest synoptic winds plus the afternoon seabreeze should keep high temperatures ~5 degrees cooler in Wilmington and ~10 degrees cooler at the beaches compared to inland areas. SPC has included a portion of the Carolinas in their Fire Weather Outlook for Wednesday citing low humidity, a moderate southwest wind, and a unusually high Energy Release Component (ERC: an index utilizing fuel moisture to indicate how energetically heat will be released by burning woody fuels.) Our current forecast has relative humidity bottoming out in the 25-30 percent range along the Interstate 95 corridor Wednesday. Similar conditions are expected again Friday and Saturday. Record highs coming up later this week: ................Wed Apr 15...Thu Apr 16...Fri Apr 17...Sat Apr 18 Wilmington......92 in 2006...90 in 2006...89 in 2006...93 in 1976 Lumberton.......92 in 2006...93 in 1941...91 in 2006...91 in 1941 Florence........94 in 2006...90 in 2006...93 in 2006...93 in 1981 N Myrtle Beach..90 in 2006...87 in 2006...87 in 1995...89 in 1976 KEY MESSAGE 2: A cold front expected to arrive next Sunday will bring a low chance of showers and a cooler airmass early next week. An upper trough pushing eastward across the Great Lakes Sunday will push a surface cold front into the Carolinas on Sunday. The latest GFS, Canadian, and ECMWF all show the front moving through during the afternoon hours, but also show only a tenuous and fading connection to any Gulf moisture. Precipitation along the front may be limited to just a smattering of showers or storms with 0-6 km bulk shear possibly too large for the limited moisture and instability present. Among the dozens of model ensemble members within the NBM, about 30 percent of them show at least .01" of rain across the area associated with Sunday's frontal passage. Increasing the PoP threshold to .10" cuts this to around 20 percent. This system appears unlikely to meaningfully alleviate deteriorating drought conditions across the area. The biggest impact from this front should be the arrival of a cooler airmass for Sunday night into Monday. Monday's predicted highs are in the lower to mid 70s, near to slightly below normal for mid April. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR will prevail through 06z TAF period. There is a chance for brief early morning fog development, but confidence is lower compared to last night due to slightly lower moisture and a bit stronger winds. Have kept any restrictions out of the TAFs. Intermittent high clouds through tomorrow. Winds will remain S-SW. Winds will back slightly and increase with gusts up to 25 kts or so in strong afternoon seabreeze. Extended Forecast...Predominantly VFR through the week due to high pressure. Only exception could be some MVFR or even IFR fog heading into sunrise each morning. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...Bermuda high pressure will remain in control with predominantly SW winds in place. Winds will back slightly in the afternoon to a more southerly direction and become gustier and increase in afternoon sea breeze. Overnight into early morning the winds will veer to a more SW direction and lighten. Seas will be 2 to 4 ft with an increasing southerly wind wave in the afternoon and a longer period ESE swell mixing in. Wednesday night through Saturday...Bermuda high pressure off the East Coast will maintain a south to southwest wind along the Carolina coast through Saturday. Synoptic winds should average 10 to occasionally 15 knots with afternoon seabreezes expected to create localized increases to almost 20 knots during the afternoons and evenings. It's a very summerlike pattern. An east-southeasterly Bermuda swell at a 9 to 10 second period will continue through Saturday, topped off by short period wind chop that could become rough for kayakers and small boats during the afternoons and evenings. Within 20 miles of shore combined seas should average 2-3 feet. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...TRA KEY MESSAGES...TRA DISCUSSION...TRA AVIATION...RGZ MARINE...TRA/RGZ  523 FXUS61 KBOX 140622 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 222 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes, the forecast remains on track. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Summerlike warmth Today and Wednesday away from the coast, with scattered late day/early evening thunderstorms and a low risk of severe weather. - Backdoor front may bring cooler temperatures Thu-Sat, especially in eastern MA, but uncertainty is high in exactly where it ends up. - More seasonable temperatures early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Summerlike warmth Today and Wednesday away from the coast, with scattered thunderstorms & a low risk of severe weather. Confidence remains high in summerlike warmth Today and Wednesday away from both coasts, as strong subtropical ridge builds over the region from the Gulf. All hi res guid has highs both days easily reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s inland (+18C to +20C at 925 mph). Any early morning fog will burn off rapidly. Meanwhile, a weak pressure gradient supports cooling seabreezes for the immediate coastal areas, with temps dropping into the 50s to around 60. However, locations such as Boston and eastern MA, late morning/early afternoon seabreeze may give way to a warmer wind shift to the SSW after 18z/19z, as low level southwest jet traverses the region. This would yield a late day high temp, after 4/5pm. We continue to monitor the potential for severe storms during late afternoon and evening both Tue and Wed, mainly 2 PM to 10 PM (highest probs 4-8pm). Low amplitude s/wvs moving through the westerly flow, only yielding weak forcing for ascent, which is evident by the lack of height falls from each of these s/wvs. However, modest mixed layer CAPE up to 1000 j/kg, modest mid level lapse rates around 6.5C/KM and 0-6km shear up to 45 kt, providing sufficient instability and shear to compensate for the lack of strong forcing. This is reflective by hi res guid offering 2-5km updraft helocity tracks into western-central MA/CT, along with highest probabilities of lightning. Convection will weaken as it traverses eastward into RI and eastern MA. Not expecting a widespread severe weather, but can't rule out a few isolates storms that approach severe in western-central CT/MA. Given the shear and instability, along with steep low level lapse rates, strong to damaging winds will be the main threat. As previous forecaster noted, atmosphere still looks favorable for thunderstorms on Wed, although the high-res models don't show much in way of activity. Severe risk is lower on CSU and SPC HREF with axis shifted farther south into CT/RI and south of the Mass Pike. While overall severe threat remains low, we can't rule out a few storms capable of producing localized wind damage or hail. KEY MESSAGE 2...Backdoor front may bring cooler temperatures Thu- Sat, especially in eastern MA, but uncertainty is high in exactly where is ends up. Temp forecast becomes more uncertain later this week, as short wave energy riding up and over the top of the subtropical ridge, may be strong enough to lower heights and have a backdoor front enter SNE, especially northeast MA. However, at this time range, low predictability regarding the amplitude of individual short waves and attending surface boundaries/backdoor fronts. Thus, certainly potential for big temperature busts this far out in time. Showers and thunderstorms could be more widespread Friday, as multi model guidance suggest a more robust mid level short wave moving across the Northeast into New England. KEY MESSAGE 3...More seasonable temperatures early next week. As expected, difficult to sustain temps 20+ degs warmer than normal in April, thus good multi model agreement (especially at this time range) that a strong cold front is expected to cross region sometime Sun, accompanied by some showers, that could spill into early Monday. Much cooler airmass follows behind front early next week, with temperatures returning to more typical levels for mid April, generally in 50s to around 60. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06z TAF Update: Tuesday...High Confidence overall, moderate on exact timing and southeast extent of T-storms. VFR with S/SW winds and coastal sea breezes 8-12 kts. Sea breezes likely shift to SSW after 18z/19z. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and evening (20- 00Z), especially across interior southern New England. Lower confidence in thunderstorm chances into RI and eastern MA. Brief MVFR possible in any moderate showers or thunderstorms. Winds should most likely lean more SW at 10-15 kts, gusts to 22 kts in the shower/storm timeframe. Locally higher/erratic gusts in any thunderstorms. Tuesday night...high confidence in trends, lower on exact timing of details. Any evening scattered showers/t-storms dissipate by 02z/03z. Mainly VFR and dry thereafter. Although, we will have to watch IFR conditions just offshore, northeast of KBOS. Wednesday...high confidence on trends, lower on exact timing of details. Mainly VFR and dry in the morning, then isolated to scattered afternoon/evening showers/T-storms. Backdoor front may come onshore into northeast MA, including KBOS and possibly accompanied by IFR/LIFR conditions in low clouds/fog. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Early seabreeze develops 14z/15z, then likely shifts to the S after 18z/19z. Showers possibly 21z-02z. Probability of lightning too low to include in the TAF. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Brief -TSRA possible 19z- 00z. Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/... Wednesday Night through Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. Thursday Night through Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 220 AM update... High confidence through the end of the week, except across the northern MA waters, where uncertainty is high regarding the timing and position of backdoor front Wednesday through the end of the week. SCA remains in effect for leftover rough seas. Weak pressure gradient will support subsiding seas along with developing seabreezes near shore beginning late Tue morning. Only other issues will be late night/early morning fog and possible late day/evening brief isolated shower/thunderstorm. Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/... Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. Thursday through Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. && .CLIMATE... Upcoming record highs: Tue 4/14 Boston 83 in 2023 Hartford 96 in 2023 Providence 87 in 2023 Worcester 90 in 2023 Wed 4/15 Boston 82 in 1896 Hartford 88 in 1941 Providence 82 in 1938 Worcester 85 in 1941 && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ235- 237. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ254>256. && $$ DISCUSSION...Nocera AVIATION...Nocera MARINE...Nocera CLIMATE...Nocera  199 FXUS61 KAKQ 140622 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 222 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the forecast at this time. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Record to near-record high temperatures are expected from today through Thursday. 2) Continued dry with fire weather concerns expected for much of the week. 3) Well above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather continue through Saturday. A stronger cold front brings a chance for showers on Sunday, but it does not look at all like a widespread soaking rain. Many areas likely see less than 0.10". && .DISCUSSION... As of 220 AM EDT Tuesday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Record to near-record high temperatures are expected from today through Thursday. Surface high pressure has settled well offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast, with strong upper ridging situated from the Gulf coast to Southeast CONUS. High pressure will build into the western Atlantic during the next day or so. The resulting persistent return flow will lock in a very warm, dry SSW flow regime through Thursday. This Bermuda High setup, more typical of early to mid summer, will allow for record to near record high temperatures through Thursday. Highs today climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s, with low to mid 90s on Wednesday, and mainly low 90s on Thursday. Highs will be a few degrees cooler on the eastern shore. The current records at our long- term climate sites noted in the climate section below. Thunderstorms will develop well to our NW (over WV/PA) this afternoon but are expected to dissipate well before reaching the area this evening as they run into the warmer temps aloft (and lower sfc dew points). KEY MESSAGE 2...Continued dry with fire weather concerns expected for much of the week. With high pressure dominating our weather pattern, and no appreciable precipitation expected through the end of the week, fire weather concerns will remain an issue to monitor for much of the rest of the week. After collaboration with state forestry officials and surrounding weather offices yesterday (Monday), will not be issuing any further Increased Fire Statements for VA/NC at this time. While breezy return flow continues today, winds/gusts are not quite as high as they were yesterday. That said, minimum RH values are, and will continue to be low, averaging 25-30% inland and 30-35% closer to the coast. Overall though, fire wx conditions remain around critical fire wx thresholds through the middle of the week. KEY MESSAGE 3...Well above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather continue through Saturday. A stronger cold front brings a chance for showers on Sunday, but it does not look at all like a widespread soaking rain. Many areas likely see less than 0.10". Slightly cooler (80s) on Friday as a weak shortwave brings more cloud cover to the area. Moisture return ahead of this feature will be meager, so only isolated showers are possible on Friday with that shortwave. Rain amounts will likely be a few hundredths of an inch at best, and most areas will stay dry. Very warm and dry (~90F inland) on Saturday as upper heights build again. Global models and ensembles continue to suggest that a stronger front crosses the area on Sunday as low pressure tracks into Ontario/Quebec. Moisture return ahead of this front will be a little bit better than what is expected on Friday, but it does not look promising for a widespread soaking rain. Isolated to perhaps scattered showers are possible during the day, with a low chc of a tstm. Ensemble probs of 0.10" of rain are 30-60% (highest near the coast). Mild wx returns behind the front early next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 130 AM EDT Tuesday... High pressure offshore of the region will favor VFR conditions through the TAF period and beyond. Skies will be mostly clear outside of high clouds through the period. FEW cumulus could develop in the aftn. Winds remain around 10 kt this morning. Gusty SW winds (to ~20 kt) return during the late morning- afternoon. Outlook: VFR and dry conditions are expected to prevail through Saturday. S-SW winds also prevail throughout the forecast period, as high pressure settles over the western Atlantic. && .MARINE... As of 220 AM EDT Tuesday... - Sub-SCA conditions are expected to prevail through much of the week and into the weekend. - Next round of potential elevated marine conditions return by the end of the weekend. Morning weather analysis shows a 1026mb high pressure sitting off the southeast coast. Due to the location of the high pressure SW winds continue to prevail across all waters. Latest observations are showing winds sustained between 10 to 15 kt. Seas at this time remain benign with waves between 1 to 2 ft across the bay and 3 to 4 ft across the ocean. Through the course of the day and generally through the week winds will remain out of the SW and sub-SCA conditions will prevail as the high pressure off the SE coast locks into place. Winds will generally remain between 10 to 15 kt with perhaps some brief 20 kt gusts across the open ocean. Will note that there is the potential for perhaps a brief period of 20 kt gusts across the bay late Thursday into Friday as a weak cold front pushes out of the north. However, confidence in these 20 kt gusts are low at this time due to the pressure gradient being weak and winds prevailing out of the SW. Seas during this time frame will remain steady with 1-2ft seas across the bay and 3 to 4 ft seas across the ocean. The next best chance for any marine headlines (primarily SCA) will be Sunday into Monday. Recent model guidance continues to show a moderate to strong cold front moving across the area. As this cool and dry airmass moves into place it will allow winds to increase over the waters with gusts potentially between 20-25kt. Trends in the model data will continue to be monitored as the weekend approaches. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temps for 4/14 - 4/16 Record Record Record High/Year High/Year High/Year Location 4/14 4/15 4/16 -------- ---- ----- ------ Richmond 90 (1977) 92 (1941) 93 (1976) Norfolk 90 (1941) 90 (2024) 91 (1976) Salisbury 87 (1941) 87 (1941) 89 (1976) Eliz. City 90 (1941) 91 (1941) 90 (1941) Record High Min Temps for 4/14 - 4/16 Record Record Record High High High Min T/Year Min T/Year Min T/Year Location 4/14 4/15 4/16 -------- ---- ----- ------ Richmond 65 (1899) 64 (2018) 64 (1912) Norfolk 68 (2019) 68 (1941) 66 (2017) Salisbury 65 (1945) 64 (2002) 63 (2017) Eliz. City 68 (2019) 68 (1974) 68 (1994) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ERI/MAM AVIATION...ERI/SW MARINE...HET CLIMATE...MAM  614 FXUS62 KTBW 140626 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 226 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Critical RH values across the region the next few days. - Above average temperatures continue through the week. - Moderate to extreme drought conditions continue. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 223 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Pleasant and warm weather will continue through the week. This is all attributed to persistent upper ridging extending over Florida as well as surface high pressure near Bermuda ridging west- southwestward over Florida and into the eastern Gulf waters. PWAT values will remain below 1 inch through the week and into the weekend resulting in rain-free conditions and well above average temperatures through the week. Daytime highs will top out in the mid to upper 80s the next couple of days, then reaching the 90s in some areas late week and into the weekend. Mild overnight temps with lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s expected through the forecast period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 223 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR and rain-free conditions along with winds less than 12 knots will prevail through the forecast period. && .MARINE... Issued at 223 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 High pressure ridging across Florida and into the eastern Gulf waters will keep a persistent east-southeast wind flow 15 knots or less and seas 2 feet or less over the region through the week and into the weekend. Winds will turn onshore during the afternoon and evening as the sea breeze sets up along the coast. This high pressure will also keep rain-free conditions over the Gulf waters through the forecast period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 223 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 High pressure ridging over the area will keep rain-free conditions over the area through the week. Some critical RH values below 35 percent expected during the week, but light winds below 15 mph will preclude the need for any Red Flag Warnings. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 88 65 88 65 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 88 62 88 64 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 87 61 88 61 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 87 63 85 63 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 88 55 89 56 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 87 68 87 68 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Wynn  510 FXUS61 KGYX 140630 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 230 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes since the previous forecast cycle. An isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorm remains possible across southwestern NH this afternoon and early evening. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Warm with a chance for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across southwest New Hampshire. 2. Generally above normal temperatures persist into the weekend, along with chances for showers most days. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... New England will sit within the warm sector of low pressure to our west today as an advancing frontal boundary approaches from the west. Ahead of this frontal boundary, southerly winds combined with partly cloudy skies will help to warm temperatures into the 60s across much of western ME with middle to upper 70s in southern NH. Temperatures will fall during the afternoon across much of southwestern ME as a sea breeze boundary advances inland while southern NH stays well into the 70s. The SPC REFS shows mean SBCAPE approaching 500-1000 J/KG for a few hours this afternoon across southwestern NH with up to 500 J/KG towards the Nashua-Concord Corridor. Latest CAMS indicate there will be up to around 40 kts of deep layer shear in place as well. Despite steep low-lvl lapse rates, mid-lvl lapse rates currently appear rather weak and this should help mitigate storm intensity some. The latest SPC outlook places portions of southern NH into a MRGL Risk (Level 1 out of 5) with the primary threat being locally strong to damaging winds. Further to the east and north towards ME, instability will drop off quickly due to the marine layer and therefore severe storms are not anticipated in those locations. Any lingering storms in southern NH this evening will end with the loss of daytime heating but scattered showers will remain possible through the first half of the night areawide. Low temperatures will range from the 40s across much of western ME with 50s in NH. Patchy fog is possible through Wednesday morning. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Mid-level ridging is anticipated to continue through the second half of the week, though conditions looked to be more unsettled than not. The unsettled weather, in addition to a backdoor cold front and a seabreeze, will complicate the temperature forecast on Thursday + Friday. A complex frontal boundary looks to pivot across New England Wednesday evening, allowing for a damp afternoon. Upwind from our showers, a region of modest instability, 60kts of mean shear and 800J of MUCAPE allows for convective initiation over central New York. These storms will move eastward with storms that develop likely maintaining strength as they move across southern New Hampshire Wednesday night. This is due to an increase in MUCAPE, despite the development of a strong night-time diurnal cap. These storms look to move progressively but they also could be solid rainmakers as well, with PWATs above the 99th percentile Wednesday night. A low pressure system follows right behind the aforementioned frontal boundary, allowing for more showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and into Friday morning. Conditions may dry a little, but generally overcast and showery weather could continue through the weekend. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 06Z Wednesday: Mainly VFR conditions are expected through 18Z Tuesday, outside of any patchy FG. Winds will be light and variable. S-SE winds will then increase to 10-15 kts, gusts to 20 kts after 18Z Tuesday with an increasing chance for scattered showers across all TAF sites along with lowering ceilings to MVFR-IFR. There is the potential for TSRA at KLEB, KCON, and KMHT between roughly 21Z-00Z with locally gusty winds possible to around 40 kts. Elsewhere, the marine layer will limit the storm threat. Scattered SHRA will remain possible through 06Z Wednesday along with patchy FG. Outlook: Wednesday-Thursday: MVFR due to showers and thunderstorms. Friday-Saturday: MVFR due to showers and thunderstorms, though brief windows of VFR are possible. Sunday: MVFR due to showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Southerly winds and seas generally stay below SCA threshold through tonight, although an occasional gust up to around 25 kts is possible. Sub-SCA conditions continue through the rest of the week. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ150-152-154. && $$ DISCUSSION...Tubbs/Palmer AVIATION...Tubbs/Palmer MARINE...Tubbs/Palmer  879 FXHW60 PHFO 140631 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 831 PM HST Mon Apr 13 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Light to moderate rain persists across the central portion of the state along a weak line of convergence that is expected to lift north and dissipate this evening. Light and variable winds will favor some onshore sea breezes through midweek. By the latter half of the weak, light east to southeast winds and quieter weather return to the forecast. This weekend may see a boost in showers as an upper level disturbance approaches from the northwest. && .SHORT TERM UPDATE... Issued at 820 PM HST Mon Apr 13 2026 Light to moderate band of showers continue across the central portions of the Hawaiian Islands, namely southwest of Oahu and Maui County. Rainfall has been negligible so far, but not anticipating much from any showers forthcoming. Winds remain light and from the southeast, and may result in land and sea breeze. Overall the latest forecast has done an excellent job tracking the current trends and therefore no amendments were necessary for this update. && .PREV DISCUSSION... A band of mostly light showers has shifted slightly east over the central islands this afternoon, contrary to what most of the hi- res model guidance was showing this morning, which showed the line shifting westward. Most of the rainfall has been focused over Oahu and Maui County, with a few hundredths of an inch recorded at most locations since this morning. For what it's worth (and it may not be much based on what was already mentioned), hi-res model guidance suggests that shower activity will diminish later this afternoon as the current line lifts north and falls apart, then additional light to moderate showers may reorganize along another weakly convergent boundary near Kauai overnight and persist in the vicinity through at least Tuesday. For the latter part of the week, trades will try to return, but may have a hard time doing so as a nearly stationary surface trough forms and persists northwest of the state, making it hard for the high pressure to the northeast to take over the local winds. Overall, winds are expected to be light east to southeasterly. With light winds prevailing, and if diurnal heating is strong enough, land and sea breeze activity may bring interior showers during the day and partial clearing overnight for the rest of the island chain. Otherwise, isolated light showers will move in on the weak southerly flow for the west half and on the southeasterly flow for the east half that will become light east to southeasterlies across the state for the latter part of the week. With lots of deep moisture sticking around through the forecast period, a mix of low and high clouds will stick around and it won't take much to trigger shower development. Precipitable water values (PWats) are expected to remain between 1.8 and 2 inches through midweek before dropping slightly to 1.5 to 1.8 inches for the latter half. For reference, the average PWats for this time of year is around 1.2 inches. This weekend, an upper level trough will dig down rather close to the state from the northwest. While most of the model guidance doesn't do much with it at this point, it's worth keeping an eye on to see if it will help to enhance shower activity over portions of the state, especially with ample moisture lingering and cooler temperatures moving in aloft. && .AVIATION... Issued at 820 PM HST Mon Apr 13 2026 Low cigs and scattered SHRA will continue across the islands tonight. MVFR conds possible but VFR should prevail. Winds will generally be driven by land-sea breezes, flowing light at less than 10 kts. The forecast generally trends back toward benign trades by the midweek. Moderate icing is possible so long as this ongoing system remains over the islands. No AIRMETs in effect. && .MARINE... Issued at 820 PM HST Mon Apr 13 2026 Light to locally moderate south to southeast flow will continue through tonight as a weak surface trough remains draped across the state. The trough will move very little the next several days and allow weak easterly flow to persist. There will be passing showers associated with the feature, but not expecting anything heavy. High pressure begins to take over at the surface, causing gentle to moderate easterly trades to gradually develop across the Hawaiian coastal waters by this weekend. A small, medium-period, northwest swell will continue to slowly diminish through the rest of the week. A new south swell arrives on Tuesday, providing a boost to surf along south facing shores through mid week before gradually subsiding into the weekend. Surf along east facing shores will remain below seasonal average with lighter than average trade winds near and upstream of the islands forecast through next week. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM UPDATE...Pierce DISCUSSION...Farris AVIATION...Walsh MARINE...Thomas  184 FXUS64 KMRX 140631 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 231 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 228 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Well above normal temperatures expected through this week into the first half of the weekend. Record highs are possible. - There are limited chances precipitation through the forecast period, with little relief from the worsening drought and fire weather conditions. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 228 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A large ridge of high pressure will remain over the Gulf and SE CONUS at least into the first half of the weekend, keeping moisture very limited over our area and temperatures well above normal for this time of year. Significant cloud cover Monday helped to hold temperatures down a bit, but today and Wednesday will bring fewer clouds, more insolation, and higher temperatures as highs make a run at records both days. Low RH values will be of concern for fire weather interests, bottoming out in the 25-35% range both today and Wednesday for most locations, but for the most part SW winds will not be higher than the 5-15 mph range. Models show the ridge being suppressed on Thursday/Thursday night as a mid/upper level short wave trough crosses the region, although it will still be very warm. The NBM has been trending higher with rain chances, which are now in the chance range for all but the far southern portions of the area in the late Thu/early Thu night time frame. The NAM is more aggressive as is often the case, but overall model/ensemble data suggests moisture will be limited and the better convective energy will be to our west. Some weakening convection will likely approach from the west, but it is still questionable how much will make it into our area. Tempering any expectations for significant rainfall with this system looks prudent for now. The ridge will build back Friday behind the short wave. High temperatures will be at least approaching records both Friday and Saturday. Better rain chances may arrive for Saturday night into Sunday as models show a deeper trough developing over the Plains that could push a cold front through our area as it moves east, but these details are still in flux so uncertainty is high for how much precipitation we may see. It does look a bit cooler at the end of the period as highs should be back closer to normal for Sunday and Monday. Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 04-14 87(2010) 86(1887) 85(1938) 88(2017) 04-15 87(2006) 87(1936) 85(1945) 86(2024) 04-16 89(2002) 87(1896) 87(2002) 88(2002) 04-17 91(1955) 90(1896) 85(2002) 88(1955) 04-18 90(2002) 90(1896) 87(2002) 89(2002) 04-19 91(2002) 90(1941) 90(1941) 90(2002) && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 128 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions prevail. Southwesterly winds around 10kts will return late morning into tomorrow afternoon. Gusts near 20kts possible at TYS. Mid to high level CIGS through the first 2/3rds of the TAF cycle. Skies will clear with light winds returning in the evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 87 59 88 60 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 84 59 86 60 / 10 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 85 57 86 58 / 10 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 82 55 84 58 / 10 0 0 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...99 AVIATION...KRS  230 FXCA62 TJSJ 140632 AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 232 AM AST Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 232 AM AST Tue Apr 14 2026 * Deteriorating weather conditions are expected to continue through the rest of the week as an unsettled pattern promotes periods of showers and thunderstorms across the region. Therefore, a Flash Flood Watch remains in effect until Wednesday afternoon for all of Puerto Rico. * A moderate risk of rip currents will persist across local beaches over the next several days. * Seas are forecast to gradually increase during the latter part of the week, resulting in building wave heights and more hazardous marine conditions for small craft, particularly across the offshore Atlantic waters and passages. * Variable and unstable weather conditions will prevail across the U.S. Virgin Islands, driven by increasing atmospheric instability and shifting wind patterns, which will support the development of scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms. && .Short Term(Today through Thursday)... Issued at 232 AM AST Tue Apr 14 2026 Overnight conditions were mostly cloudy to overcast across the entire forecast area, with skies remaining largely covered through the night. Shower activity over land was limited, with only a few brief and isolated showers observed; however, more persistent shower activity prevailed across the Caribbean and Atlantic waters, occasionally moving near the coastal areas. These cloudier conditions helped keep temperatures relatively mild along the coasts, generally in the mid-70s, while cooler temperatures were observed across the higher elevations due to elevation and cloud cover. Overall, it was a calm but cloudy night with most of the rainfall remaining offshore. A mid-level cut-off low will remain positioned north of the region today, promoting a strong upper-level jet streak of over 90 knots across the local area and supporting enhanced divergence aloft, which will favor convective development. At 500 mb, a low will induce a southwesterly flow around 25 knots, while at the surface, an induced trough will promote variable to east- southeasterly winds across eastern Puerto Rico and surrounding waters, introducing some uncertainty in the focus of showers throughout the day. Moisture will remain abundant, with precipitable water values around the 75th percentile, well above climatological normals, while mid-level relative humidity values between 750–500 mb will exceed two standard deviations above normal early in the day before gradually decreasing. Cold temperatures aloft, ranging between -9 to -10°C at 500 mb, will enhance instability and support the development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms embedded within the broader shower activity. Based on the latest analysis and model guidance, shower activity is expected to start around mid to late morning and then become more widespread across the interior and western sections of Puerto Rico during the afternoon hours, with some showers becoming locally heavy and resulting in urban and small stream flooding. Therefore, a Flood Watch remains in effect for today, with an elevated to significant flooding risk across portions of the islands, although some uncertainty persists regarding the exact placement and movement of the heaviest rainfall due to the variable low-level wind flow associated with the surface trough. For Wednesday, surface conditions will evolve as winds within the 0–3 km layer remain from the southeast while a surface perturbation moves across the forecast area. According to model guidance, the induced surface trough is expected to move east of the CWA earlier in the day; however, the GFS places a more defined low center just northwest of the area, and these discrepancies may introduce some uncertainty in the overall conditions. Nonetheless, sufficient deep moisture, with precipitable water values near 1.8 inches, above-normal relative humidity between 850–700 mb, and slightly colder temperatures at 500 mb will support a convective pattern with better-organized convection, especially during the afternoon as cloudiness interacts with local effects. Given these conditions, an elevated flooding risk is expected, particularly across northwestern sections of the islands, including the San Juan metro area, due to the prevailing wind direction as the induced surface trough moves across the region. For Thursday, conditions become slightly more interesting at 250 mb as the previous cut-off low shifts eastward out of the area, while a deep-layered trough continues to deepen with its axis positioned over Hispaniola, leaving Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands under its influence. As a result, a more unstable and dynamic weather pattern is expected, with abundant moisture and increasing instability combining with favorable upper-level support to promote the development of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the region. Activity will likely begin by late morning and become more widespread through the afternoon, especially across interior and western Puerto Rico, where locally heavy rainfall is expected, supporting efficient rainfall processes and some storm organization, which will increase the risk of urban and small stream flooding along with isolated gusty winds. && .Long Term(Friday through Tuesday)... Issued at 232 AM AST Tue Apr 14 2026 An unsettled weather pattern is expected Friday through the weekend into early next week as a short wave trough sinks into the Caribbean. At the surface, high pressure over the western to central Atlantic will promote moderate to fresh ESE to easterly winds Friday and Saturday, becoming easterly Sunday and slightly ENE by Monday. The pressure gradient will remain uneven, with stronger winds across eastern areas and weaker flow farther west, supporting faster moving showers in the east and slower storm motion in the west. Moisture will increase Friday into the weekend, with PWAT values above normal and at times exceeding climatological maxima, before slightly drier air filters in late Sunday into Monday. Aloft, a jet streak will lift over the area by Monday, while mid level temperatures remain modestly cool. This pattern will support periods of convection and isolated to locally scattered thunderstorm development across the region. Confidence is medium, as details depend on the timing and placement of the trough and deeper moisture. Flooding will be the primary hazard, followed by lightning and breezy conditions. Showers and isolated to locally scattered thunderstorms are expected daily, generally favoring eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands overnight into the morning, then shifting westward each afternoon based on the latest model guidance. The greatest risk will focus over northwestern Puerto Rico Friday and Saturday, western Puerto Rico on Sunday, and southwestern Puerto Rico by Monday. Faster storm motion over eastern areas may limit rainfall totals, but slower moving convection in western sectors could enhance flooding impacts. Breezy conditions will persist due to the general wind flow and may be locally enhanced by thunderstorm downdrafts. Soils may remain saturated, which could further increase the risk of flooding, landslides, and rapid river rises. This pattern will likely disrupt outdoor plans at times. Conditions should gradually improve late Sunday into Monday, though some uncertainty remains. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 232 AM AST Tue Apr 14 2026 Mainly VFR conditions are expected across the local terminals early in the period, deteriorating to MVFR at times due to increasing SHRA and isolated TSRA, particularly across TJSJ, TJBQ, and TJPS between 14/17Z and 14/23Z. Periods of lower ceilings and reduced visibility are likely with the heaviest activity. Winds will remain light and variable through around 14/15Z, then increase from the E-SE at around 10 knots, with higher gusts possible near showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Issued at 232 AM AST Tue Apr 14 2026 A broad surface high pressure across the central Atlantic and a frontal boundary over the western Atlantic will promote light to moderate trades through the rest of the weekend. Pulses of northerly swell will continue to move through the Atlantic waters and passages, where small craft should continue to exercise caution over the next several days. The combination of the front and associated pre-frontal trough will increase showers and thunderstorms across the local waters, creating locally hazardous marine conditions through at least mid-week. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 232 AM AST Tue Apr 14 2026 A moderate risk of rip currents will continue for most north-and east-facing beaches of Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, where rip currents are possible and can be life-threatening. A low risk will likely persist across western and southern Puerto Rico. Increasing winds early to midweek could lead to a return of more hazardous marine and coastal conditions. Residents and visitors are encourage to exercise caution at the beach, especially along the exposed coasts. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for PRZ001>013. VI...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for VIZ001-002. AM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM, KEY MESSAGES & AVIATION...LIS LONG TERM, BEACH FORECAST & MARINE....ICP/GRS  062 FXUS62 KCAE 140635 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 235 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation discussion updated for 06z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1. Well above average temperatures, along with dry weather conditions, will continue into next weekend. - 2. Limited chance for rain on Sunday, but rainfall would be light and short-lived. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Well above average temperatures, along with dry weather conditions, will continue into next weekend. Little change in the forecast thinking for the expected hot and dry conditions this week and into the upcoming weekend. Deep and highly anomalous upper ridge will be in control through the reminder of the week with persistent southwesterly low level winds. The airmass remains too dry for any chance of seeing rainfall, so a dry forecast remains. Through Saturday, near record highs will remain possible each day, and multiple days at or above 90 degrees F are likely by mid-week and into the weekend. NAEFS and EC EFI are consistent across their respective ensemble suites with near record highs and extremely anomalous heights and temps aloft; an outside chance continues for the record April high (96F at CAE) on Saturday. Key Message 2: Limited chance for rain on Sunday, but rainfall would be light and short-lived. A front will finally approach the region on Sunday bringing some rain chances across the area for the first time in several weeks. However, the entire ensemble suite and the synoptic- climatological chance for significant rainfall is low with the surface low pulling well north and a subsequent lack of moisture convergence. A few showers across the area are possible still but the chance of greater than 0.1" remains less than 20%. While rain chances are low, behind this front, much cooler temps looks likely with near or below average temps likely for the early half of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions expected prevail through the period except possible predawn restrictions at prone OGB/AGS. Little change in the overall air mass with high pressure centered over the western Atlantic. Light southerly winds expected overnight with a low level jet in place which should prevent widespread fog concerns. However, river proximity at prone AGS/OGB locations with current dewpoint depressions less than 5 degrees suggest possible river valley fog concerns there. Will keep previous forecast of tempo IFR vsbys in fog at AGS/OGB from 08z-12z time frame opting to go with persistence as it occurred yesterday morning. Otherwise, mainly clear skies or some thin cirrus clouds passing overhead through the period. Winds should pick up from the southwest around 10 knots after 15z before diminishing again around sunset. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...High pressure to dominate through the upcoming week, the chance for widespread restrictions remains low. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...42 AVIATION...23  205 FXUS65 KABQ 140638 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1238 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1233 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Hazardous crosswinds will create difficult travel for large and high-profile vehicles this afternoon and again Thursday and Friday mainly across eastern NM. - Critical fire weather threatening rapid fire spread from any new spark returns to NM today and Thursday mainly across northeastern and east-central NM, and a majority of the state Friday. - A hard freeze is forecast Friday night into Saturday morning across the western and northern third of NM. Take precautions to protect early blooming plants. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 1233 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Unsettled weather continues over the Desert Southwest, highlighted by a 557dm H5 low swirling just east of Las Vegas, NV tonight. Anchored by a sampled 95kt 250mb jetmax on its southeastern periphery, this upper low is bringing convective showers and high elevation snow across northeastern AZ and northwestern NM. Rainfall amounts and snow accumulations will be light and favor west facing slopes of the Chuska and Tusas Mts tonight and early Tuesday morning. The main sensible weather impact will be from strong southwesterly winds currently over the high terrain of central and western NM, but forecast to spread to areas along and east of the central mountain chain Tuesday afternoon. Aided by deep vertical mixing tapping into H7 winds of 35 to 45 kts and a 997mb MSLP surface low over southeastern CO, peak gusts at the surface of 35 to 50 mph will threaten hazardous crosswinds for area highways of eastern NM. A Wind Advisory will be hoisted Tuesday afternoon for these favored areas including the Sacramento Mts (Ruidoso) and areas along and north of I-40 and along and east of I-25, also including Curry and Roosevelt Counties. Rapid fire spread from any new sparks will be possible in these areas as well, see Fire Weather Discussion. Much of the Rio Grande Valley from Socorro to ABQ to Santa Fe and Taos will be stuck in between the unimpressive precipitation to the northwest and stronger winds to the east Tuesday. Winds calm Tuesday night with drier conditions moving in, which will allow for Wednesday morning low temperatures to bottom out near or below freezing for many western and northern areas. Warmer temperatures in the upper 30s and 40s hold onto the middle and lower Rio Grande Valley and eastern plains. Breezy to locally windy conditions are forecast Wednesday. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 1233 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Thursday sees the next Pacific storm system cross into the northwestern CONUS bringing increasing southwesterly winds to NM. Temperatures warm up alongside another bout of hazardous crosswinds for area highways for high profile vehicles Thursday afternoon. Numerical model guidance favors this system opening to a trough with its axis crossing NM Friday. Strong southwesterly to westerly winds will be favored Friday, with widespread gusts of 35 to 45 mph and peak gusts to 50+ mph across the central highlands and northeastern plains will be favored. Any precipitation with this late week system will favor areas to the north in the CO Rockies, leaving much of NM hanging out to dry. A sharp switch to much drier and colder northwesterly and northerly winds will be ushered in behind a potent cold front late Friday. This sets the stage for a sharp cool down Friday night into Saturday morning. There is a high probability for a hard freeze across the western and northern portion of the state, with lows near freezing in Albuquerque and the middle Rio Grande Valley. This will threaten many outdoor plants that underwent their early green up back during March's unprecedented heatwave. Temperatures warm up Sunday after another morning freeze across the western and northern thirds of the state, alongside a modest uptick in moisture arriving Monday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1103 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 An upper low currently over Las Vegas, NV is continuing to spin up strong southwesterly winds into New Mexico this evening. This will continue at many locations overnight with gusts of 12 to 20kts continuing. There are however some protected valley locations like KABQ and KSAF seeing wind speeds already abating this hour. Southwesterly winds increase notably Tuesday morning, peaking in strength Tuesday afternoon with widespread gusts of 25 to 35 kts. Precipitation tonight will be relegated mainly to areas along and west of the Continental Divide and north of I-40, including KGUP and KFMN. Have included TEMPOs at these terminals for MVFR conditions during the predawn hours Tuesday morning. Localized IFR conditions can't entirely be ruled out but are currently unlikely. LLWS will also be widespread tonight mainly along the and immediately east of the central mountain chain before subsiding Tuesday morning as stronger winds at the surface pick up. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1233 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Strong southwesterly winds gusting to 35 to 50 mph alongside marginally critical humidity will produce critical fire weather conditions for areas along and east of the Sangre de Cristo and Sandia/Manzano Mountains Tuesday afternoon. Fine fuels in some areas of the east-central plains may have greened up a bit from last week's localized heavy rainfalls, notably in Roosevelt and Curry Counties. Meanwhile, elevated fire weather conditions will stretch westward into the Rio Grande Valley where winds will be a bit less and humidity a bit higher. Northwestern NM will receive colder temperatures alongside light valley and mid-elevation rain and high elevation snow. Another round of critical fire weather conditions returns Thursday after a brief respite from the winds Wednesday. Very dry southwesterly winds pick up Thursday yielding at least elevated fire weather conditions areawide, with critical favoring the northeastern plains where the strongest winds gusting to 35 to 45 mph will reside. These conditions spread to a majority of NM Friday afternoon as wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph spread alongside humidity falling to near or below 10 percent yet again. The strongest gusts of 45 to 50+ mph will favor the northeastern plains and central highlands again. A potent cold front associated with the main storm system passing just north of NM over the CO Rockies will usher in a sharp cool down behind northwesterly and northerly winds Friday night and Saturday morning. Due to the storm system's forecast track, any precipitation will stay north of the state line with few exceptions in the Tusas and northern Sangre de Cristo Mts Friday. Winds abate Saturday with temperatures warming back up Sunday and higher humidity arriving Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 59 34 67 35 / 40 10 0 0 Dulce........................... 54 21 62 22 / 80 10 0 0 Cuba............................ 57 29 61 31 / 40 5 0 0 Gallup.......................... 56 23 65 25 / 50 5 0 0 El Morro........................ 55 29 61 32 / 10 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 61 26 67 28 / 10 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 60 29 63 30 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 65 36 66 38 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 59 31 62 34 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 65 26 70 29 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 69 30 74 34 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 47 21 54 25 / 90 10 5 0 Los Alamos...................... 57 35 60 38 / 20 5 5 0 Pecos........................... 60 31 62 35 / 10 5 5 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 53 29 57 32 / 20 5 5 0 Red River....................... 45 24 48 28 / 20 5 10 0 Angel Fire...................... 52 18 54 21 / 10 5 10 0 Taos............................ 58 24 62 25 / 20 5 5 0 Mora............................ 59 29 60 33 / 10 5 5 0 Espanola........................ 65 32 68 33 / 20 5 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 60 35 62 38 / 10 5 5 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 63 33 65 35 / 10 5 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 68 42 68 44 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 70 39 70 41 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 72 38 73 38 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 69 40 70 42 / 5 0 0 0 Belen........................... 74 35 73 35 / 5 5 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 70 39 71 41 / 5 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 73 34 73 34 / 5 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 71 39 72 40 / 5 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 73 36 73 36 / 5 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 65 40 66 43 / 10 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 69 40 70 41 / 5 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 76 40 75 40 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 63 37 63 39 / 5 5 0 0 Tijeras......................... 64 37 64 40 / 5 5 0 0 Edgewood........................ 65 33 65 34 / 5 5 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 67 29 66 28 / 5 5 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 63 32 62 35 / 5 5 0 0 Mountainair..................... 67 33 65 35 / 5 5 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 66 34 65 36 / 0 5 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 69 40 68 41 / 5 5 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 62 38 61 40 / 5 5 0 0 Capulin......................... 65 29 62 32 / 0 0 10 0 Raton........................... 67 28 66 29 / 0 0 5 0 Springer........................ 70 30 68 30 / 0 0 5 0 Las Vegas....................... 63 31 64 34 / 5 0 5 0 Clayton......................... 74 39 70 42 / 0 0 5 0 Roy............................. 69 35 67 36 / 0 5 5 0 Conchas......................... 78 38 76 38 / 5 5 5 0 Santa Rosa...................... 74 39 71 39 / 5 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 81 42 77 42 / 5 5 0 0 Clovis.......................... 80 45 76 44 / 5 10 0 0 Portales........................ 81 45 78 43 / 5 10 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 79 41 76 39 / 5 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 83 47 80 43 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 74 41 73 41 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 71 39 71 37 / 5 5 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ104-123-125-126. Wind Advisory from noon today to 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ223-226>236-240. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...24  155 FXUS64 KLZK 140639 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 139 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 138 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 -Active pattern expected across the region...but only limited potential for thunderstorms/rainfall in Arkansas -First decent thunderstorm/rainfall potential for Arkansas late Wednesday night into Thursday morning -Next wave of thunderstorm/rainfall potential late Friday into Saturday as a cold front moves through the region -Cooler/drier weather expected late this weekend into early next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 138 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 An active weather pattern remains the main story through the next several days across the region...but much of AR remains on the ERN/SERN extent of most activity. Initially...only some small chances for isolated/widely scattered convection are forecast today/tonight...mainly for WRN/NWRN sections...with much better chances for more organized activity remaining west. Most areas of the LZK CWA should remain dry into Wed...with highs in the 70s and 80s. By late Wed into early Thu...upper level energy in the SW flow aloft will shift east slightly by Thu morning...with the potential for a bit more organized convection increasing further E/SE. Have increasing POPs for this as a result...with best POPs late Wed night into early Thu afternoon. Given the timing of this activity...the threat for strong/SVR convection looks relatively limited this time. Potential for precip decreases again for most locations late Thu into much of Fri as upper ridging moves over AR. By Sat/Sat night...an upper shortwave will drop SE across the Plains into the Great Lakes region...with a SFC cold front dropping SE across the Plains through AR. Expect increasing potential for convection with this SFC front as it passes SE through AR Sat. The potential for seeing any organized SVR Wx with this front looks fairly uncertain at this time. This will be due to either timing of the FROPA...and/or uncertainty in this timing and upper level features/SFC details. Cooler and more stable air will then settle across the region by late in the weekend into early next week behind this cold front. Temps will drop from the 70s and 80s...potentially some low 90s on Fri for highs...to the 60s and 70s behind the front. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1258 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR CIGs should become MVFR CIGs near 12z due to moisture advection/formation of stratus deck from the W and SW. CIGs should improve mid-day into the early afternoon on Tues. Winds will be Srly around 10-15 kts overnight, increasing to 20-25 kts in the afternoon out of the S/SW. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 85 68 83 66 / 10 10 20 80 Camden AR 86 62 84 64 / 10 0 0 50 Harrison AR 83 67 76 62 / 20 40 60 90 Hot Springs AR 83 64 81 63 / 10 10 20 80 Little Rock AR 85 66 83 66 / 10 10 10 70 Monticello AR 86 65 85 66 / 0 0 0 20 Mount Ida AR 82 64 79 63 / 10 20 30 90 Mountain Home AR 85 67 79 63 / 20 30 50 90 Newport AR 86 68 85 66 / 10 10 10 70 Pine Bluff AR 86 64 84 66 / 10 0 0 50 Russellville AR 84 66 80 64 / 20 20 40 90 Searcy AR 85 65 84 64 / 10 10 10 70 Stuttgart AR 86 67 84 67 / 10 0 0 50 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...62 AVIATION...70  324 FXUS61 KCAR 140640 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 240 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... -Minor jam remains in place on the Allagash River by the bridge with substantial sheet ice remaining upstream. That is now the only known river ice remaining at this time on northern Maine rivers. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Above normal temperatures through the end of the week combined with some rainfall will continue to melt the remaining snow and ice and clear the northern rives. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Above normal temperatures through the end of the week combined with some rainfall will continue to melt the remaining snow and ice and clear the northern rives. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... High temperatures through mid-week will range from around 50 in the north to around 60 over some interior southern spots. Highs over the north will continue to be in the upper 50s to near 60 into late week while highs in the south will continue to warm reaching around 60 on Saturday. This will combine with some light rain events Tuesday night and again Thursday night which together may add an additional quarter to a half inch of rainfall across the area. The warm temperatures, moist air, and rain will continue to erode what remains of the snow and ice, as well as the river ice over the north. River gauges across the north have shown some fluctuations due to ice movement and a minor ice jam has been reported on the Allagash River. Flooding is currently not anticipated. However, we will monitor the fluctuations in river levels and ice movement as the rain, snow melt, and warmer temperatures continue to cause the river ice to break up and erode. It is likely that the most of the northern rivers will be clear by the end of the week with any lingering ice continuing to melt and dissipate over the weekend. && .AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Mix of MVFR/IFR at terminals with MVFR cigs over nrn terminals through early this afternoon. Downeast terminals will vary between VFR and IFR in fog. This afternoon will see VFR at all terminals. NW 5-10kts early becoming light and variable in the afternoon, with ENE winds northern sites and S Downeast terminals. Tonight...MVFR showers move in this evening before conditions drop to IFR at southern sites. Aroostook terminals should remain MVFR with ocnl IFR restrictions overnight. E 5-10kts north, SSE 5kts Downeast terminals. Wednesday...VFR/MVFR early then dropping as rain moves in late afternoon. Light E winds. Wednesday night...IFR to LIFR all sites. Winds NE less than 5 kt. Thursday...IFR. SE to S winds around 5 kt. Thursday night...IFR, possibly improving to MVFR over the north late. S wind around 5 kt becoming W. Friday...VFR. NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Friday night...VFR, possibly lowering to MVFR over the north late. NE to E wind less than 5 kt. Saturday...MVFR becoming VFR over the north. VFR over the south. SE wind 5 to 10 kt. && .MARINE... Seas will continue to lower this morning to below small craft levels. No headlines are anticipated through Wednesday. Cannot rule out patchy fog and possibly a thunderstorm over the waters this afternoon and evening. Winds are expected to be below SCA through the coming weekend and seas around 3 ft. Moist air over the colder waters will likely produce some fog and mist over the waters and along the shore with the best chances for fog Wednesday night and again on Friday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this morning for ANZ050-051. && $$ DISCUSSION...MB/21 AVIATION...MB/21  235 FXUS62 KGSP 140645 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 245 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The aviation discussion was updated for the 06Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Fire weather concerns continue amid a dry and stagnant weather pattern. A Fire Danger Statement is in effect for this afternoon and evening between Noon to 8 PM for the North Carolina Piedmont and northeast Georgia. Temperatures will be very warm with values 10-15 degrees above normal. 2. Hot and dry through Saturday with high temperatures approaching daily records. A cold front may bring some rainfall to our area on Sunday, but any amounts will likely be minimal. Near-normal temperatures expected early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Key message 1: Fire weather concerns continue amid a dry and stagnant weather pattern. A Fire Danger Statement is in effect for this afternoon and evening between Noon to 8 PM for the North Carolina Piedmont and northeast Georgia. Temperatures will be very warm with values 10-15 degrees above normal. Mostly clear and dry tonight will lead to partly to mostly sunny skies during the daytime as a Bermuda surface ridge continues to filter in southwesterly winds across the CWFA. The Southeast upper ridge will hold steady over the next 24-36 hours as anomalously high thicknesses remain in place. In this case, expect afternoon highs to top out in the mid to upper 80s east of the mountains, mid 80s in the major mountain valleys, and 70s in the higher elevations. Vertical profiles show a deep mixing layer during peak heating this afternoon as the boundary layer taps into stronger winds at the top (~825-800mb). Expect some low-end gusts during the afternoon as a result. With some drier air aloft remaining in place, dewpoint mixing combined with temperatures rising a category or so higher compared to Monday will lead to RH values dropping to 25-35% for most locations outside of the mountains despite slightly higher dewpoints as little moisture return accompanies the low-level southwesterly flow. This will continue to elevate fire weather concerns, especially with ongoing drought concerns and higher heat stress with warmer temperatures. The Fire Danger Statement for the North Carolina Piedmont was in coordination with the North Carolina Forest Service and is in effect from Noon to 8 PM today. The Fire Danger Statement for northeast Georgia is for ongoing dry fuels and RH values getting close to the critical threshold of 30%. The Fire Danger Statement for northeast Georgia is also in effect from Noon to 8 PM today. On-and-off fire weather concerns will persist through the week as near-critical RHs and high heat stress are expected each afternoon. This combined with very dry vegetation and low RHs will provide enough of a concern for potential wildfire development, so daily Fire Danger Products throughout the rest of this week remain possible. Key message 2: Hot and dry through Saturday with high temperatures approaching daily records. A cold front may bring some rainfall to our area on Sunday, but any amounts will likely be minimal. Near-normal temperatures expected early next week. Upper ridging will build over the Southeast into Thursday while the Bermuda surface high keeps warm, SLY flow over our area. An embedded upper shortwave trof will move over the Carolinas on Friday, with heights rebounding quickly in its wake. A much more substantial upper trof will pass just to our north late Sunday into Monday and push a robust cold front thru our area on Sunday. A weaker cold front does approach the western Carolinas late Thurs, however it gets pushed northward by the Bermuda high. I can't rule out a few showers over the NC mtns late Thursday into early Friday, but any precipitation amounts would be minimal. The stronger front on Sunday has the potential to bring more widespread showers to our area, but unfortunately the fropa still appears pretty fast and the latest model guidance continues to trend drier overall. It's looking like any precipitation that we get from this system probably won't have much impact on the current drought. While temperatures will be summer-like and approach daily records, the humidity will remain lower. Relative humidity values in the 25 to 35% range are expected each afternoon through the weekend, with values below 20% possible early next week. In addition, gusty winds are expected across our area on Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday which will likely increase fire danger. Temperatures cool to near-normal behind the front on Monday and Tuesday but the airmass remains very dry. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. South to southwesterly winds will persist through the day at 5-10 kts with some low-end gusts possible during peak heating. Can't rule out some spurts of cirrus and fair weather cu, especially during the afternoon. Winds will gradually subside after sunset this evening. Outlook: Dry and VFR conditions persist through at least Thursday. && .CLIMATE... RECORDS FOR 04-14 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 86 2006 36 1907 62 1922 24 1950 KCLT 89 1941 46 1907 69 1922 27 1950 KGSP 92 1916 48 1901 67 1922 22 1907 RECORDS FOR 04-15 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 89 1972 42 1943 64 1887 23 1907 KCLT 89 1936 46 1889 66 2006 28 1907 KGSP 91 2006 45 1913 69 1922 22 1907 RECORDS FOR 04-16 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 87 2006 42 1905 62 1945 26 1943 KCLT 89 2006 49 1890 64 1998 29 2008 1896 1991 1962 1945 KGSP 88 1888 54 1903 64 1945 24 1907 RECORDS FOR 04-17 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 89 1896 45 1890 63 1927 26 1904 KCLT 94 1896 47 1890 66 1896 30 2018 1949 KGSP 92 2006 51 1904 63 1927 25 1905 RECORDS FOR 04-18 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 90 1896 44 1921 60 1927 28 1905 1891 KCLT 93 1896 45 1983 66 1896 32 2001 KGSP 89 2002 51 1983 66 1927 28 1905 1967 && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from noon EDT today through this evening for GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029. NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from noon EDT today through this evening for NCZ036-037-056-057-068>072-082. SC...None. && $$ CAC/JPT  530 FXUS63 KMQT 140645 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 245 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Morning fog may be dense at times, but then diminishes into the afternoon. - A period of generally dry weather is expected today and tonight, though some showers and storms may graze the UP. Additional waves of showers and storms move through Wednesday onwards. - A prolonged period of well above freezing temperatures and higher dewpoints will bring increased snowmelt. This, combined with periods of potentially heavy rainfall and thunderstorms, will accelerate river rises and lead to ponding of water in areas with poor drainage. A Flood Watch remains in place for all of Upper Michigan through Wednesday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 244 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Early this morning, low pressure is analyzed over IA, with a baroclinic zone extending northeast of this all the way through the northern LP. Forcing along this boundary was able to bring in quite a bit of rain to the UP tonight, but this is tapering off from west to east at this time; rain should entirely in the eastern UP into the pre-dawn hours. In its wake, with plenty of low-level moisture and light winds, areas of fog are developing across the UP, dense at times across the central and eastern UP. Otherwise, expect a mild night with temperatures only falling as far as the mid 30s near Lake Superior, and the upper 30s and lower 40s elsewhere. Expect a period of generally drier weather conditions as weak ridging builds in from northern Ontario today through Wednesday. Hopefully the slightly cooler air from northern Ontario and drier conditions will help to reduce the flooding risk across the area for the rest of this week. That being said, a couple of weak shortwaves moving through the Upper Midwest could bring additional showers and thunderstorms to the U.P. later this evening into tonight, the first grazing us to the north and the other to the south. Whether this shortwave brings precipitation into the U.P. or not will depend on the strength of the ridging from northern Ontario. In spite of lackluster QPF, however, flooding concerns will continue at least through today with the ongoing snowmelt and lingering impacts from this past night's rain. Otherwise, expect another warm day as temperatures peak in the 40s near Lake Superior, the 50s inland over the eastern UP, and the lower/mid 60s across the interior of the central and western UP. Temperatures fall back into the mid 30s to mid 40s tonight before peaking again in the 40s and 50s for most on Wednesday. Another shortwave low moving through the Upper Midwest could bring additional rain showers and thunderstorms to the area late Wednesday into Thursday. This remains conditional on the strength of ridging extending from Ontario, which could suppress this feature more to the south over the Lower Peninsula. The warmest conditions of the weak move in on Friday as a cold air from northern Canada causes a robust cold front to develop across the central CONUS late this week. With PWATs looking to rapidly increase to around 1 inch in the warm sector via Gulf air ahead of the cold front, the NBM brings up to a 90% chance for temperatures greater than 70 to the western half of the U.P. as dewpoints have a 20 to 50% chance of exceeding 50 degrees (highest chances in the south central and interior west). Combined with intensifying southerly winds, this becomes a recipe for accelerating snowmelt on the snowpack that we have left across the area. Now, where guidance diverges for this week is whether or not a shortwave low lifts through the area before and/or after the arrival of the cold front. Expect higher rain totals if a shortwave rolls through the area before the cold front moves through, as the cold front could bring additional showers and storms across the area into early this weekend. However, if a shortwave low rolls through the area immediately behind the cold front (like the latest deterministic Euro is suggesting), then the western half of the U.P. may be in for a significant wet snowfall event. Therefore, while the confidence is low at this time, we will keep an eye out to see if model guidance continues to converge on a solution. Regardless, there is fairly good agreement that colder temperatures and at the very least light snowfall will be seen over the northwest to west wind snow belts behind the cold front to end the weekend. Expect a transition to more normal temperatures early next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 127 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Widespread IFR/LIFR flight restrictions to persist for duration of TAF period as both fog and low stratus continue to impact TAF sites. Confidence is not high enough to carry mention of VLIFR at this time, but it definitely cannot be ruled out later this morning as overnight cooling and light winds help to reinforce the conditions. && .MARINE... Issued at 244 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 NE winds continue to gust to around 20kts across the western arm of the lake, but slowly decrease this afternoon. Meanwhile, areas of fog are developing across the lake this morning, and may be dense at times. Fog diminishes into the afternoon ahead of another batch of showers (with some thunder) moving over the lake his evening. Fog develops again tonight into early Wednesday. Otherwise, expect winds generally from the N to NE to remain below 20kts Wednesday through Thursday. The main pattern shift for the period looks to come late this week through this weekend as a cold front approaches from the central CONUS. Winds intensify out of the south and southeast Friday, with over a 30% chance (highest over the open waters of the eastern half of the lake) of increasing to gales of at least 34 knots by Friday night before the cold front moves through the lake around the Saturday time period. Behind the cold front, as the strong cold air advection improves mixing of the higher winds aloft to the sfc, expect the winds to become northwesterly as gale chances increase up to 50% late in the day through Saturday night. In addition to the winds, some thunderstorms may be seen ahead of and along the cold front late Friday into Saturday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 244 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 In response to the ongoing snowmelt and lingering impacts from heavy rainfall that occurred this past night, river rises and flooding of low-lying areas are expected/are occurring across Upper Michigan, particularly over the south central where another 1-2 inches fell. While much of the area near Wisconsin lost the entirety of their snowpack, several inches to over a foot(!) of SWE remains over the Keweenaw and higher elevations of the north central U.P., as well as portions of the eastern U.P. upslope from Lake Superior over the northwest wind belts. Thus, while flooding concerns look to start dwindling over the areas near Wisconsin after Tuesday, expect continued snowmelt over the remaining areas to continue river rises over those areas with or downbasin from an area with notable snowpack remaining. Because of this and the rainfall chances expected through the rest of this week, river flooding to bankfull conditions are being seen across several rivers across Upper Michigan. Starting with the Black River near Bessemer, the quick loss of snowpack with the rainfall yesterday has created Minor Flooding conditions which are forecasted to continue until Tuesday; bankfull conditions for the Black River look to continue until Tuesday night. Moving over to the Sturgeon River at Alston, Minor Flooding is currently being realized; with plenty of snowpack left to melt, expect the river levels to slowly rise the rest of this week into early this weekend. The high river levels at Alston and high flow at Prickett Dam may also bring elevated river levels to Chassell later this week; we will continue to monitor the local observations over there and issue products accordingly should bankfull and/or floodstage be achieved along the Sturgeon River at Chassell. Moving along to the Paint River at Crystal Falls, Moderate Flooding is expected starting late Tuesday as we move into Minor Flood Stage this evening. While not quite looking to get into Major Flood Stage, river heights are currently expected to get up to 8.5", which does start to approach the River Flood of Record. Moving into the Michigamme River basin, some bankfull conditions to Minor River Flooding looks possible at Bangston Bridge and Witch Lake late this week as the snowmelt in the basin progressively melts and increases flows with time. As for the Ford River, we are currently flirting with bankfull conditions this afternoon and could go over tonight given the chances for rainfall (some potentially heavy at times). Moving over to the Escanaba River, bankfull to Minor River Flood conditions are expected over the Middle Branch at Humboldt and the Eastern Branch at Gwinn. Given the recent call with one of the dam operators in Escanaba about the high flows, will continue to keep an eye on the snowmelt in the north central as rainfall moving through tonight could help to push- up cfs to hazardous levels. As for the Sturgeon River (Delta County) at Nahma Junction, the recent heavy rainfall and snowmelt has caused river levels to exceed bankfull; I'd be shocked if the river doesn't go into Minor Flood Stage shortly as even the HEFS shows the river at about 100% for getting into Minor Flood Stage. As for the Manistique River, the increasing snowmelt and heavy rainfall recently (and potentially tonight) could bring above bankfull river levels, potentially causing ponding of water and inundation in low- lying areas near the river Tuesday and beyond; a Flood Advisory may need to be issued for this river's area of influence in the future. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for MIZ001>007-009>014- 084-085. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for LMZ248-250. && $$ DISCUSSION...LC AVIATION...TDUD MARINE...LC HYDROLOGY...  815 FXUS63 KAPX 140649 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 249 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Ongoing flooding may worsen with additional rain and storms tonight. Highest rainfall expected south of M-72. - Severe thunderstorm chances tonight and again Tuesday evening/Tuesday night with primary hazards of damaging winds and large hail. - Additional rounds of rain and mild temperatures through this week before turning cold late this weekend. && .PREVIOUS UPDATE... Issued at 1045 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 This section covers the forecast for the rest of tonight. For latest Area Forecast Discussion addressing the remainder of the forecast period, see the next section. Current forecast theme remains in good standing. Warm frontal boundary draped over the southern reaches of the region will remain the focus for convection as we head through the evening into tonight. Better instability remains to our west, with vigorous convection underway across north-central into northeast Wisconsin. Strengthening low level jet will drive an expanding instability axis into areas along and south of M-72. This particular region will be the primary focus for deeper convection, while more efficient stratiform rainfall occurs elsewhere. Severe potential trends are tending to favor southern and western reaches of the APX footprint, with primary hazards being hail and gusty winds (some of which could have an amplified impact with water-logged soils compromising root integrity on trees). The biggest story from this episode of convection is most certainly the flooding potential. Two different modes of flooding may materialize tonight. For areas north of M-32, lighter but still efficient stratiform rainfall on saturated soils and what is left of the snowpack may still lead to elevated water levels... including the highly sensitive Cheboygan River basin in far northern lower Michigan, along with the Chain of Lakes watershed in northwest lower. In general, this area could see 0.50 to 1.25" of rain by Tuesday morning. The farther south one goes (M-32 and south), the potential for repeated rounds of thunderstorms increases considerably. Torrential rainfall rates may drive a potentially higher end impact flash flooding event, as soils will fail to absorb all that water. Low lying and flood prone areas may be subject to rapid inundation from floodwaters in the event that the worst case scenario arises... which would be rainfall in excess of 2.50" in a short period of time. In addition... with the placement of this rainfall potentially encompassing large portions of the Manistee and Au Sable watersheds, river level rises may be in order again... even with these rivers already exceeding record levels. Much to monitor tonight. Rainfall looks to exit across the board into Tuesday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 450 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Pattern Synopsis: Southwest mid/upper-level flow will remain draped across the heart of the CONUS through the middle of the week as embedded waves progress trough the main flow. In turn, boundaries laid across portions of the Great Lakes and Midwest will wave north and south across the region as rounds of convection work through. A more amplified shortwave will progress overhead during the second half of the week, followed by brief ridging Friday before a strong, late- season trough digs across the Great Lakes this weekend. Forecast Details: Primary forecast concern in the short term is expected widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms tonight and their impact on ongoing flooding across much of northern Michigan. Current confidence based on latest high-res guidance and radar trends is that storms current firing across portions of Wisconsin will mature and work across the lake south of our area, working to limit higher rainfall potential to a degree across portions of our area. This is due to limited transport/support for an additional line of storms that is expected to form across southern Minnesota and track across the lake into northern Michigan later this evening and tonight. While this will provide our widespread rain/storm chances, expectation is that many areas will be limited to around 0.5-1" of additional rainfall as opposed to much higher amounts with a stronger line of storms working across our area. The exception will potentially be areas south of M-72, and especially south of M-55. Our far southern counties have the best chance of seeing rainfall amounts in excess of 1"+ with the potential for localized amounts of 2"+ should strong storms track across that area. Regardless of amounts, additional rainfall tonight will exacerbate ongoing flooding across the area -- the magnitude/widespread nature of which is impressive for the Northwoods. Specifically, the Au Sable River near Red Oak and the Manistee River near Sherman are forecast to go into major flood stage shortly this afternoon/evening. A few strong storms, especially across far southwest portions of the CWA, will be possible later this evening and tonight. The primary hazards with any strong storms will be damaging winds, large hail, and low chances for a tornado. Additional severe storms will be possible Tuesday evening into Tuesday night with similar hazards possible. Looking ahead, additional rain chances and mild temperatures will continue through the end of the week into this weekend. The aforementioned strong trough will likely tank temperatures late this weekend back down into the 30s and 40s for highs on Sunday with overnight lows in the 20s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 125 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Another round of showers/embedded thunderstorms and MVFR to IFR producing low cigs/areas of mist will continue to pivot east across the area early this morning. While showers do end this morning, low clouds and mist will take until late morning and afternoon to lift/scour out. Perhaps more MVFR producing cigs and showers/thunderstorms return again this evening. Some gusty winds and brief periods of heavy rain are possible with any stronger storms this morning. Otherwise, winds will remain light. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for MIZ016>018-020>036- 041-042-086>088-095-096-099. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...HAD DISCUSSION...HAD AVIATION...MSB  795 FXUS62 KFFC 140652 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 252 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...Morning Area Forecast Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 245 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - A Fire Danger Statement is in effect for portions of north and central Georgia this afternoon and evening. Fire weather concerns will persist this week given the ongoing very dry and warm conditions. - Temperatures will remain well above normal through the weekend. Some could approach daily record highs by mid-week. - Appreciable rainfall is very unlikely through this coming weekend, so worsening drought conditions are expected. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 245 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The overall pattern will remain largely unchanged today and Wednesday, with the high pressure regime maintaining its hold over the region. 500 mb level ridging over the northern Gulf extending into the western Atlantic and associated surface high pressure underneath will gradually retrograde through the short term period. The ridge becoming more centered over the Southeast will keep any frontal boundaries and precipitation displaced well to the north of Georgia. The ridge aloft and southwesterly flow from the Gulf on the back side of the high will also promote continued warming. Low temperatures this morning will be in the mid 50s to near 60s. Under mostly clear skies, high temperatures this afternoon will be 9-12 degrees above normal in central Georgia and 12-16 degrees above normal in north Georgia, rising into the mid to upper 80s. With very dry fuels and RH values dropping to between 25-30% this afternoon, a Fire Danger Statement is in effect once again across the forecast area this afternoon. By late Tuesday, the upper level synoptic pattern will reflect a classic omega-block pattern centered over the eastern CONUS, with deep troughing setting up on both sides of the aforementioned ridge. Low temperatures will begin Wednesday morning in the upper 50s and low 60s. Highs will be a few degrees warmer than today, climbing into the upper 80s and even low 90s in portions of east- central Georgia. Many locations across the forecast area could see new daily records be set on Wednesday and into the extended period. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 245 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Staying Warm and Dry for Most through Saturday: The long term period brings the potential for the persistent ridging pattern to finally weaken and thus the potential for rainfall across parts of the County Warning Area (CWA). Unfortunately, this pattern shift will very likely not support the coverage and amount of rainfall necessary to put a dent in the Severe Drought (D2) to Extreme Drought (D3) that covers much of the CWA. Ensemble guidance depicts a shortwave trough pushing across the Ohio River Valley and Mid-Atlantic over the course of Thursday and Friday. How much rain occurs here in north and central Georgia associated with this feature will depend on just how much the shortwave dampens when it interacts with the ridge and to what degree moisture associated with the shortwave is scoured out. Ensemble guidance suggests that Gulf moisture advection will be lacking, and when coupled with some semblance of ridging likely holding on across the Southeast, it seems likely that rain chances will remain low overall. Rain Chances and a Drop in Temperatures on Sunday? Ensemble guidance depicts the passage of a fairly stout longwave trough across the eastern CONUS late Saturday through late Sunday, although the individual ensembles (i.e. GEFS vs. EPS) vary regarding how far south the base of the trough swings. Such differences could impact how much moisture return occurs across the CWA, as well as the placement of favorable dynamics for storm organization/strength. At this time, rain chances are greatest (25% to 30%) north of the Atlanta metro area, with 15% to 20% rain chances across the Atlanta metro area and parts of central Georgia. Appreciable rainfall is highly unlikely, so worsening drought conditions are expected through the weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 132 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Patchy fog will be possible in portions of east-central GA in the early morning, with vsby restrictions of 1-2 SM occasionally developing at MCN before sunrise. Otherwise, VFR conditions will persist through the period, with SKC or a few passing upper clouds between 20-25 kft. Winds will be primarily SW, at 4 kts or less in the early morning, increasing to 5-10 kts after 14Z, and diminishing once again after 00Z. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... High confidence on all elements. King && .CLIMATE... Issued at 245 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Records for 04-14 Max Temperature Min Temperature Station High Low High Low ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 88 1922 44 1907 66 2015 27 1950 1919 KATL 88 1945 49 1913 66 2015 30 1950 1922 1920 1907 KCSG 92 1922 53 2000 67 2015 35 1950 1935 1947 1940 1907 KMCN 90 1922 52 1913 69 2015 34 1950 Records for 04-15 Max Temperature Min Temperature Station High Low High Low ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 89 1936 50 1952 68 1922 28 1943 KATL 87 1972 45 1903 66 1991 31 1950 1936 KCSG 91 1972 53 1952 69 1972 35 1943 1945 1922 KMCN 91 1972 53 1952 69 1922 31 1907 1936 Records for 04-16 Max Temperature Min Temperature Station High Low High Low ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 88 1930 50 1903 62 1982 30 1943 1925 1945 KATL 86 1896 49 1905 64 1945 32 1962 KCSG 92 1925 61 1961 69 1945 32 1950 1928 KMCN 91 1967 56 1905 67 1972 33 2014 2008 Records for 04-17 Max Temperature Min Temperature Station High Low High Low ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 90 1955 55 1949 63 2006 30 1949 1905 1982 1939 KATL 89 1896 44 1904 66 2024 31 1905 1896 KCSG 91 1955 58 1923 69 2006 32 1949 1925 1922 KMCN 92 1955 52 1904 69 2006 34 1949 Records for 04-18 Max Temperature Min Temperature Station High Low High Low ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 90 1942 54 1902 64 1969 32 1936 1927 KATL 87 2002 50 1983 69 1927 33 1997 1937 1896 KCSG 91 2002 60 2014 69 2006 37 1962 1930 1956 1927 KMCN 90 1967 55 1921 66 1922 33 2001 1955 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 86 58 88 60 / 0 0 0 0 Atlanta 85 61 88 62 / 0 0 0 0 Blairsville 82 55 84 57 / 0 0 0 0 Cartersville 87 58 88 59 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 87 59 88 59 / 0 0 0 0 Gainesville 85 60 87 62 / 0 0 0 0 Macon 87 57 89 60 / 0 0 0 0 Rome 87 57 88 59 / 0 0 0 0 Peachtree City 86 57 88 59 / 0 0 0 0 Vidalia 89 60 91 61 / 0 0 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...King LONG TERM....Martin AVIATION...King  240 FXUS62 KTAE 140652 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 252 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 222 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Patchy fog is possible this morning over the Florida Panhandle and Southeast Alabama, mainly west of the Choctawhatchee River. If encountering fog while driving, slow down, use low beam headlights, and increase braking distance. - Little or no rain is expected through this weekend. Drought conditions will worsen. Fire concerns will remain elevated. Use extreme caution with any outdoor burning. Please heed burn bans where they are in effect. - Above normal temperatures will continue through this weekend, with lower 90s likely late this week. && .SHORT AND LONG TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 222 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A large upper level ridge will prevail over the southeast US through the remainder of the week. Under this ridge, surface high pressure will remain dominant with high temperatures well above normal and in the upper 80s. It wouldn't be surprising for some locations to touch the 90s by the upcoming weekend. With the ridge in control, no rainfall is expected through the remainder of the week and potentially into the weekend. Fire concerns will also stay elevated given the dry conditions in place and expected forecast. The ridge will likely begin to break down some late in the weekend and into early next week as a frontal system approaches. However, rainfall amounts will be very small, if any, from this frontal system. The main concerns with this system will be the influx of drier air and potential increase in fire weather concerns given elevated post-frontal winds. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 147 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Mainly VFR conds thru the TAF period with lgt/calm winds, and another aftn seabreeze tmrw. The only concerns are during the early-morning hrs when patchy fog encroaches on ECP/DHN and perhaps VLD. The highest confidence in reduced vsbys are the western terminals where a 9-13Z TEMPO group is in place for 1/2SM. Guidance is not as excited for fog prospects at VLD, but did not want to completely remove the mention in the TAFs. && .MARINE... Issued at 222 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A surface high extending from the western Atlantic will keep generally light to gentle southeasterly winds over the waters for the next several days. Seabreezes can be expected to push just inland during the afternoon hours. Later this week, the High will settle a little further south, shifting our winds more southerly. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 222 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Warm and dry conditions will continue through the week as drought conditions will continue and/or worsen. Transport winds will generally be southerly; swinging from southeasterly to southwesterly at around 5-10 mph. Expect afternoon seabreezes across Florida counties. Dispersions will be moderate, with higher dispersions expected by Wednesday lasting into the weekend. Given antecedent conditions and RHs dropping into the low 30% range most afternoons, expect some fire concerns each day. While uncertainty remains high at these longer lead times, some greater fire weather concerns could develop over the weekend or early next week with the passage of a dry cold front. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 222 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 No rain is expected for the next several days. Drought conditions will continue or worsen. For more local drought information & statements, visit the following websites: weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 87 59 88 58 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 81 61 81 63 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 87 58 88 58 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 88 60 89 60 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 88 59 90 58 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 87 57 88 58 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 76 62 77 63 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114- 115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Dobbs LONG TERM....Dobbs AVIATION...Dobbs MARINE...Dobbs FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs HYDROLOGY...Dobbs  590 FXUS63 KAPX 140656 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 256 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Ongoing flooding may worsen with additional rain and storms through daybreak. Highest rainfall expected south of M-72. - Severe thunderstorm chances tonight and again Tuesday evening/Tuesday night with primary hazards of damaging winds and large hail. - Additional rounds of rain and mild temperatures through this week before turning cold late this weekend. && .PREVIOUS UPDATE... Issued at 1045 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 This section covers the forecast for the rest of tonight. For latest Area Forecast Discussion addressing the remainder of the forecast period, see the next section. Current forecast theme remains in good standing. Warm frontal boundary draped over the southern reaches of the region will remain the focus for convection as we head through the evening into tonight. Better instability remains to our west, with vigorous convection underway across north-central into northeast Wisconsin. Strengthening low level jet will drive an expanding instability axis into areas along and south of M-72. This particular region will be the primary focus for deeper convection, while more efficient stratiform rainfall occurs elsewhere. Severe potential trends are tending to favor southern and western reaches of the APX footprint, with primary hazards being hail and gusty winds (some of which could have an amplified impact with water-logged soils compromising root integrity on trees). The biggest story from this episode of convection is most certainly the flooding potential. Two different modes of flooding may materialize tonight. For areas north of M-32, lighter but still efficient stratiform rainfall on saturated soils and what is left of the snowpack may still lead to elevated water levels... including the highly sensitive Cheboygan River basin in far northern lower Michigan, along with the Chain of Lakes watershed in northwest lower. In general, this area could see 0.50 to 1.25" of rain by Tuesday morning. The farther south one goes (M-32 and south), the potential for repeated rounds of thunderstorms increases considerably. Torrential rainfall rates may drive a potentially higher end impact flash flooding event, as soils will fail to absorb all that water. Low lying and flood prone areas may be subject to rapid inundation from floodwaters in the event that the worst case scenario arises... which would be rainfall in excess of 2.50" in a short period of time. In addition... with the placement of this rainfall potentially encompassing large portions of the Manistee and Au Sable watersheds, river level rises may be in order again... even with these rivers already exceeding record levels. Much to monitor tonight. Rainfall looks to exit across the board into Tuesday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 128 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Pattern Synopsis: Continued active pattern consisting of troughing over the western CONUS and ridging anchored over the eastern seaboard. This will continue to result in an active, southern stream wave dominant pattern that leads to numerous disturbances riding into the Great Lakes region, focused along a stationary boundary draped over Michigan. A direct Gulf moisture tap will continue to lead to anomalously moist airmasses moving into Michigan, and thus continues a heavy rain and thunderstorm threat through the end of the week. Some signs of a pattern breakdown with cooler weather through the weekend into next week... with perhaps a brief reprieve from the wet conditions as well. Details: Ongoing convection to continue through roughly daybreak. Warm / stationary frontal boundary draped from Frankfort to Harrisville, which will continue to be the focus for deeper convection. Strong low level jet (LLJ) intrusion driving elevated convection north into the Tip of the Mitt as well. Heaviest rainfall rates and severe threat (hail and wind) will still favor areas near and south of M-32, though with the ongoing high water situation across the far northern reaches of northern lower, there will continue to be flooding issues there as well. Rainfall will diminish into the morning hours, giving a temporary break to the area. Dry weather to prevail through Tuesday, with the warm front sliding just south owing to the ongoing convection. Another wave riding this front will traverse lower Michigan. With much more instability to play with, we may be looking at another round of severe storms and heavy rain... but initial thinking from guidance is that this will be suppressed downstate for the most part... perhaps scraping the M- 55 corridor. This will be an all hazards type setup, and unfortunately will have to be refined with time based on where the warm front goes. Nonetheless... it does appear the farther north one goes, there should be a lesser risk of rain and thunderstorms later tonight. Additional waves of energy will barge through the region and deliver more rounds of rainfall. Still a bit fuzzy on the details for the time being... but timing is coming into focus. Additional showers and storms will be possible south on Wednesday, overspreading much of northern lower into Wednesday night - Thursday. Another reprieve likely comes Friday before a larger system passes through the region, delivering yet another round of rain and thunder Friday night through Saturday. This will bring about colder temperatures to the region... with the temperature contrast of colder in eastern upper and mild / 70s south coming to a conclusion. Highs by Sunday will be in the 30s to near 40 across the board with snow chances. The chill will moderate some into midweek next week... with highs possibly reaching back into the 50s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 125 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Another round of showers/embedded thunderstorms and MVFR to IFR producing low cigs/areas of mist will continue to pivot east across the area early this morning. While showers do end this morning, low clouds and mist will take until late morning and afternoon to lift/scour out. Perhaps more MVFR producing cigs and showers/thunderstorms return again this evening. Some gusty winds and brief periods of heavy rain are possible with any stronger storms this morning. Otherwise, winds will remain light. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for MIZ016>018-020>036- 041-042-086>088-095-096-099. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...HAD AVIATION...MSB  674 FXUS61 KBTV 140656 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 256 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 303 PM EDT Monday... Removed wind advisory and made minor tweaks to temperatures and timing of precip through midweek. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 254 AM EDT Tuesday... 1. Showers with embedded thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday with a couple of stronger storms possible, mainly south of Route 4. 2. Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected Wednesday and Thursday as boundary remains draped across our forecast area. 3. A more amplified weather pattern and shortwave will lead to unseasonably warm conditions and scattered rain showers at the end of the week. 4. A round of widespread showers Saturday night and Sunday will usher in a sharply cooler period early next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 254 AM EDT Tuesday... KEY MESSAGE 1: The forecast challenge is amount of clearing and associated sfc heating/instability that can develop on Tues. GOES-19 water vapor imagery shows compact s/w energy moving along the International Border this aftn, while large area of subsidence/dry air aloft is located over the central Great Lake and approaching the SLV. As this moves overhead tonight, expect lowering cloud levels with some patchy fog possible over the northern Dack Valleys. Lows generally in the mid 40s to mid 50s tonight. For Tuesday our s/w energy of interest is currently located over central IA with developing lightning over northern IL/WI. This energy wl quickly move eastward in the fast 700-500mb flow aloft and being located over the eastern Great Lakes by 12z Tues. Upstream satl imagery shows a rather messy warm sector in regards to plenty of clouds and feel this could influence our sfc heating/instability acrs our cwa on Tues. Weak sfc low pres is expected to travel along boundary draped near the International Border on Tues with very warm 925mb to 850mb thermal profiles, but soundings low clouds stuck under the inversion in the morning and mid/upper lvl convective debris clouds developing by early aftn, which wl probably limit sfc heating. HREF shows the greatest potential for sfc based CAPE profiles >500 J/kg south of a SLK to LEB line of 40 to 60%, with highest potential mainly south of Route 4. Meanwhile, the probability of 0 to 6 km shear >50 knots is 80 to 100% near the International Border, indicating strongest winds are north and best deep layer instability is south. NAM 12KM/NAM 3KM solutions are the most aggressive with sfc/mu CAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg into our central/southern cwa, while HRRR/WRF NSSL and RAP are <500 J/kg. This wl become a nowcasting scenario on Tuesday, watching if clouds can dissipate and timing of boundary crossing our cwa for determining how robust convection can develop. For now a few stronger storms are possible mainly Rutland/Windsor counties, but feel greatest action wl be south of our cwa. The latest SPC day2 outlook continues to place part of our cwa in a Marginal Risk (1 out of 5). Temps are very challenging on Tues as 925mb temps would suggest highs well into the mid 70s to lower 80s, but clouds and precip with sharpening boundary wl have significant impacts on highs. Have mid 60s SLV to near 80F VSF. KEY MESSAGE 2: An active pattern is expected for Weds and Thurs as boundary remains draped acrs our cwa with multiple s/w's riding in the westerly flow aloft producing additional chcs for precip. Boundary position and clouds wl have significant impact on temps and sfc instability for both Weds/Thurs. Latest trends indicate additional s/w energy arriving acrs our western cwa by 15z with some instability possible acrs our central/southern fa. Clouds and precip wl impact thermal profiles and associated thermal dynamics. Any stronger/deeper convection wl have the potential to produce localized heavy downpours, especially with pw values approaching 1.5" or 2 to 3 std above normal on Weds. Similar type temp profile as Tuesday with greatest probability of mid 70s acrs Rutland/Windsor counties, with coolest air over the northern SLV/CPV and parts of the NEK. Little change in the large scale synoptic pattern is anticipated on Thursday, as additional s/w dynamics and moisture in the westerly 700 to 500mb flow impacts our cwa. Additional showers with embedded storms are expected, with some localized heavy downpours possible. As always, the instability wl be driving factor on how strong storms can become, but progged 925mb temps are very warm again with values in the 14-18C range. If sun develops highs easily in the 70s, but if clouds prevail with occasional showers, temps mostly hold in the upper 50s to mid 60s. KEY MESSAGE 3: A quick-hitting shortwave will bring some rain showers and potential embedded thunderstorms, mainly in southern Vermont, on Friday as guidance indicates 925mb temperatures could reach 13-17 C Friday afternoon. Due to this and decreasing clouds, forecast surface temps are as high as the 60s and lower 70s, with non-zero instability values projected. Probability of measurable precipitation runs about 30-60% Friday afternoon, likely realized as spotty showers everywhere and a few rumbles of thunder in central/southern Vermont. Lows Friday night should remain mild in the 40s and lower 50s, with only a brief period of high pressure between systems late Friday night and Saturday morning. The next chance for precipitation arrives late Saturday afternoon and evening as a larger frontal system approaches. Despite increasing clouds, temperatures are expected to again rise above seasonable normals Saturday, reaching into the 60s in strong southerly flow and modest warm air advection. KEY MESSAGE 4: A large frontal system, centered over Ontario and the Hudson Bay Saturday night, will drag a cold frontal boundary through the forecast area into Sunday. Lows Saturday night in the 40s and lower 50s will fall into the upper 20s to mid 30s on Sunday night, and highs Sunday in the mid 50s to lower 60s become upper 30s to mid 40s Monday as cooler air spills into the region on northwesterly flow behind a secondary cold front. Probabilities of measurable precipitation in six hours are about 50-65% by Sunday afternoon, though probabilities of rainfall 0.50" within 24 hours during this period is around 10-30%. Thunderstorms are most likely Sunday afternoon in northern New York when warmth lingers, but the timing of instability, warmth, and forcing do not align favorably for widespread t-storms in this system as the best forcing occurs at night. Sunday night and Monday, as temperatures fall, there is the potential for some snow showers, mainly at higher elevations, before the arrival of drier air behind a secondary front tapers off precip. High pressure keeps weather quieter and cool toward the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 06Z Wednesday...Showers with embedded thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday with a couple of stronger storms possible. Winds tonight are generally westerly to northwesterly with a few gusts observed in southern Vermont 10-20 knots. In areas seeing a lighter wind and breaks in clouds, some patchy fog may develop over the next few hours. Around 12Z-15Z Tuesday, a southerly wind will develop, except at MSS, which should see more northeasterly to northerly winds. Ceilings throughout the day will likely hover around 2500-3500 feet above ground level, potentially lower in showers crossing west to east across northern New York and Vermont 15Z Tuesday through 00Z Wednesday. Embedded thunderstorms are possible starting at 18Z Tuesday, but when and where t-storms occur is not clear at this time, so TAFs have only SHRA. Also with these showers and t-storms, gusts 30-35 knots are not out of the question. However, like the t- storms, the timing and location of such gusts is of higher uncertainty, so gusts closer to 15-25 knots are in the TAFs. Some LLWS is also expected as southwest to west winds at 2000 ft agl increase along the showers/storms, around 20Z Tuesday onwards. With the passage of the showers/associated frontal boundary, surface winds should turn out of the west-northwest again (except MSS) by around 00Z Wednesday, and ceilings are expected to fall into widespread IFR levels into the evening. Outlook... Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Wednesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Thursday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA. Friday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday: MVFR. Slight chance SHRA. && .EQUIPMENT... The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service. This site is not serviced by the NWS. An estimated return to service is May 1st. Please contact us if you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational forecast. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Taber DISCUSSION...Taber/Storm AVIATION...Storm EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV  901 FXUS61 KPHI 140659 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 259 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Small Craft Advisory was allowed to expire. Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Damaging winds possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms through this afternoon and evening north and west of the I-95 corridor, with an even higher risk from I-80 on north. 2. Potentially record breaking warmth is possible this week with very warm and above normal temperatures continuing through the upcoming weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1....Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly north and west of the I-95 corridor, are anticipated to move in this afternoon and evening. While the severe threat is zero for most of the area, a few strong to severe storms over the northern Lehigh Valley, Poconos, and far northern NJ are possible and could produce damaging wind gusts. A fairly significant change to the forecast this morning for later today and this evening. An MCS over the Great Lakes will continue to push eastward through today and potentially graze our area this afternoon and evening. Convection associated with the MCS will likely re-develop later this afternoon over southern NY and north- central PA. The question remains how much instability builds with daytime heating as the day goes on. Shear, while present, is not overwhelming either. However, still expecting some thunderstorms developing and potentially clustering as they move into the northern half of our region. Main concern is damaging wind gusts as the line or small clusters of storms move through. The best chance for strong to severe thunderstorms will be from the I-95 and I-195 corridor on north and west. SPC has expanded the Marginal Risk (1/5) to include these areas. A Slight Risk was even added north of I-80. Showers and thunderstorms begin to move in by the mid afternoon in the Poconos, moving toward I-95 for the late afternoon/early evening. Convection should weaken as it crosses the Delaware River, with a more stable airmass present over New Jersey. Areas south and east of I-95 could still see some showers, but not expecting much in terms of severe weather. KEY MESSAGE 2...Potentially record breaking warmth is possible this week with very warm and above normal temperatures continuing through the upcoming weekend. We continue on track with increasing confidence in early season heat with a significant warm up expected through the middle of the week and into the upcoming weekend with the potential for record breaking temperatures. With high pressure situated over the Atlantic Ocean and the warm front well north of the Mid-Atlantic region, continued warmth is expected. Very warm air aloft coupled with warm air at surface levels will allow temperatures to be as much as 15 to 30 degrees above average this week. As of now, forecast highs are in the low to mid 80s on Tuesday with mid/upper 80s to low 90s on both Wednesday and Thursday, though Thursday may be a touch cooler due to more cloud cover. See Climate Section below regarding potential record breaking temperatures. At this point, temperatures are expected to reach at least 90 for much urban corridor on Wednesday and a degree or two warmer on Thursday. This would be first 90 degree day of the year and first since early September. As is typical in spring though, temperatures along and near the coast will be significantly cooler due to the colder sea surface temperatures and diurnal sea breeze. While a weak surface front passes through late Thursday night into Friday morning, temperatures will stay well above normal through the weekend with temps mainly in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Not only will it be very warm over the course of the week, but it will also remain mainly dry. This is of elevated concern for ongoing drought/abnormally dry conditions over much of the area, which will likely only get worse after this week. A few weak disturbances will pass by to the north through Thursday, but other than a stray shower or thunderstorm each afternoon north of the I-78 corridor, no significant rainfall is expected. Flow will generally be out of the southwest, which is more favorable in terms of moisture, which likely will hinder the fire weather concerns this week. Winds will generally be light as well, as another limiting factor. So, even though it will be warm and dry, fire weather concerns are minimal. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Through 12z...VFR. Southwest winds around 5 kt. High confidence. Today...Primarily VFR. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms potentially develop in the afternoon. Added VCSH to the TAFs between 21z-03z. Chance of showers is around 30-50% with a 10-20% chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and early evening. Winds out of the southwest through the day around 5-10 kt in the morning, increasing to around 10-15 kt in the afternoon with gusts 20-25 kt. Moderate confidence. Tonight...Primarily VFR. Slight chance (15-20%) of a shower through 03z at KACY/KMIV. No significant weather otherwise. Southwest winds around 5 kt or less. Moderate confidence. Outlook... Wednesday through Thursday night...Prevailing VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms (~20-40%) in the afternoon and evening hours each day for the Lehigh Valley and I-95 terminals. Friday through Saturday...VFR. A few showers possible, otherwise no significant weather. && .MARINE... Tranquil conditions expected on the waters today and tonight with no headlines in place. Southwest winds around 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt and seas 2 to 4 feet. Outlook... Wednesday through Saturday...No marine headlines expected. Winds will generally remain below 20 kt with seas around 2-4 feet. A few showers possible, otherwise fair weather. && .CLIMATE... Warm temperatures well above normal are expected for the upcoming week. Wednesday is currently projected to be the warmest day, though Tuesday through Thursday could see some records broken depending on the site. Below are record highs and record high minimum temperatures for April 14th through April 16th. Record High Temperatures April 14 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 88/2023 AC Airport (ACY) 86/1945 AC Marina (55N) 90/1941 Georgetown (GED) 87/1977 Mount Pocono (MPO) 84/2023 Philadelphia (PHL) 91/1941 Reading (RDG) 90/1941 Trenton (TTN) 89/1941 Wilmington (ILG) 87/1941 Record Warmest Low Temperatures April 14 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 61/2014 AC Airport (ACY) 63/2023 AC Marina (55N) 60/2023 Georgetown (GED) 65/2019 Mount Pocono (MPO) 56/2014 Philadelphia (PHL) 62/2014 Reading (RDG) 64/2014 Trenton (TTN) 62/2014 Wilmington (ILG) 60/2014 Record High Temperatures April 15 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 86/1941 & 1994 AC Airport (ACY) 90/1967 AC Marina (55N) 86/1941 Georgetown (GED) 86/1960 & 2024 Mount Pocono (MPO) 82/1941 Philadelphia (PHL) 88/1941 Reading (RDG) 86/1941 & 1994 Trenton (TTN) 87/1994 Wilmington (ILG) 86/1896 Record Warmest Low Temperatures April 15 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 59/2002 AC Airport (ACY) 61/2002 AC Marina (55N) 59/2006 Georgetown (GED) 65/2002 Mount Pocono (MPO) 58/2002 Philadelphia (PHL) 64/2002 Reading (RDG) 64/1938 Trenton (TTN) 63/2002 Wilmington (ILG) 62/2002 Record High Temperatures April 16 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 90/2012 AC Airport (ACY) 89/2002 AC Marina (55N) 88/2002 Georgetown (GED) 89/2002 Mount Pocono (MPO) 85/2002 Philadelphia (PHL) 90/2002 Reading (RDG) 90/2012 Trenton (TTN) 91/2012 Wilmington (ILG) 92/1896 Record Warmest Low Temperatures April 16 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 60/1941 AC Airport (ACY) 62/2002 AC Marina (55N) 64/2002 Georgetown (GED) 65/2012 Mount Pocono (MPO) 56/2002 Philadelphia (PHL) 62/2002 Reading (RDG) 65/1941 Trenton (TTN) 62/2002 Wilmington (ILG) 63/2002 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Deal/DeSilva/Hoeflich/MJL AVIATION...Deal/DeSilva/Hoeflich MARINE...Deal/DeSilva/Hoeflich CLIMATE...WFO PHI