555 FXUS61 KALY 140700 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 300 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Some patchy fog was added to the Upper Hudson River Valley, Lake George Region and southern Adirondacks this morning. The Storm Prediction Center upgraded eastern NY and western New England to a Slight Risk (Level 2 out of 5) for the potential of severe thunderstorms today into tonight. Minor changes to timing of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into the early evening with the pre-frontal trough and low pressure system passing to the north over northern NY/New England for the threat of strong to severe thunderstorms. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Scattered strong to potentially severe thunderstorms this afternoon into the early evening with damaging wind gusts the main threat to trees, power poles and property. 2. Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday south of the Capital Region. 3. The threat for widespread impactful weather is low from Thu through the end of the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... The mid and upper level flow is nearly zonal over the Northeast this morning with a frontal boundary over upstate NY and New England. The air mass is more humid today and after morning patchy fog burns off, temps should warm quickly from the I-90 corridor south. The boundary drifts back north in the morning. A pre-frontal sfc trough in the warm sector will focus a round of showers and thunderstorms today, some of which could be strong to severe. The latest HREF guidance indicates mean SBCAPEs of 500-1000 J/kg with pockets in excess of 1000 J/kg. The deep layer shear in the 0-6 km layer is 35-45 KT based on the HREF. The winds are strong in the H700-500 layer at about 50 KT. The latest CAM guidance is variable on the timing of initially some discrete cells forming in the late morning/early pm over central NY and west of the Hudson River Valley and then quickly forming into a line impacting most of eastern NY and western New England in the mid-late pm/early evening. The last several runs of the 3-km HRRR are faster with the impact period from about 1-6 pm, whereas the 3-km NAM is slower in the 3 to 7 pm time frame. Some of the model soundings from the 3-km HRRR indicate MLCAPE reaching about 1000 J/kg with DCAPE in the 500-800 J/kg. Both the 3-km HRRR and NAMnest indicated steep low-level lapse rates below 850 hPa from the Capital Region south. The updrafts may extend tall enough and tap into those strong winds in the H700-500 layer for a robust damaging wind potential. SPC upgraded the entire area to a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) with 15% probabilities for damaging winds 50 KT or greater. Bowing segments will be possible with the line. There is some uncertainty if the line will impact locations in our southeast extreme (mid Hudson Valley/NW CT). We tried to take a blended approach based on the NBM and collab with neighbors for the main impact period to be 2 to 8 pm (18Z to 00Z). With the fast flow this could move through quicker though. The damaging winds could knock down trees, break large tree branches, down power poles and lines, and yield some property. Also, CG lightning will be an issue with the thunderstorms. Humidity levels will be moderate with dewpoints in the 50s to lower 60s. Temps will depend on sky cover, but 70s to lower 80s will be possible. The lower 80s will be from Albany south to the I-84 corridor into NW CT. 60s will be common over the southern Greens and the southern Adirondacks. The showers and thunderstorms decrease early tonight with some patchy fog forming especially along and north of the Mohawk River Valley. Lows will be very mild in the 50s to lower 60s. KEY MESSAGE 2... Another wave quickly approaches from the central and eastern Great Lakes Region Wed morning. The short-wave will move along the rim of the ridge centered over the Southeast and Florida. Showers and some isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms impact locations from I-90 northward in the late morning/early pm. One area that may be vulnerable for isolated to widely scattered strong thunderstorms will be near the I-84 corridor (southeast Catskills, mid Hudson Valley and NW CT). Mid-level lapse rates steepen, and the deep shear is still 40 KT with MLCAPEs around 1000 J/kg. A damaging wind and large hail threat is possible and SPC continues most of the area in a Marginal (Level 1 out 5) Risk for severe thunderstorms. Highs 80 to 85F will be common in this area with 60s and 70s further north. The latest 3-km NAMnest indicates some stronger cells may form along and south of the Capital Region with the 00Z 3-km HRRR with less of a threat. KEY MESSAGE 3... Above normal temps conclude the work week and enter the weekend. However, a cold frontal passage on Sunday may keep temps closer to normal and then next week could start with cooler than normal based on the WPC Days 4 to 7 forecast inserted. Backing up, ridging may build in enough for the warmest temps of the week (mid 70s to lower 80s outside the northern mtns) on Thu with NBM probs (40-90%) supporting this. Yet another disturbance moving along the stalled boundary over northern NY and New England will bring scattered to numerous showers with some thunderstorms for Thu with the highest probabilities for precipitation 50-70% from I-90 north with lesser of a threat south. A stronger mid and upper level trough along with the cold front will keep chances of showers on Friday before a brief reprieve of drier weather to open the weekend. The probability of impactful weather Thu through the weekend is low due to the lower severe weather threat and the rainfall being beneficial with no hydro impacts anticipated at this time. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 06z Wednesday...While VFR conditions likely prevail at ALB and POu through tonight, weakening winds at GFL, clearing and an increase in low level moisture will likely support periods of fog and IFR vis at KGFL between 08 and 13 UTC. Show MVFR vsby prevailing during this window with IFR vis in a TEMPO given lower confidence. We continue to see potential for MVFR cigs at PSF from upslope clouds from 08-12 UTC. These lower clouds and fog should dissipate early this morning with VFR prevailing thereafter through early this afternoon. Then, we will need to focus on a potential line of showers showers and thunderstorms tracking from northwest to southeast between 18 and 23 UTC. During any thunderstorm, a brief period of strong, gusty winds are possible along with IFR vis from a period of steady rain. Most of the rain/storms will dissipate by early evening with mid-level clouds lingering overnight. Outlook... Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures(Year Set): Today April 14: Albany: 89(2023) Glens Falls: 84(2023) Poughkeepsie: 91(2023) Wednesday April 15: Albany: 86(2003) Glens Falls: 84(2003) Poughkeepsie: 84(2003) Thursday April 16: Albany: 91(2012) Glens Falls: 89(2002) Poughkeepsie: 91(2012) && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...15 AVIATION...31 CLIMATE...07  869 FXUS63 KICT 140703 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 203 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widely scattered thunderstorms, some severe, are possible this afternoon and tonight and again late Wednesday and Friday. - Extreme grassland fire danger west of I-135 this afternoon and early evening. - A cool-down is expected for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A mid/upper trough over the Southwest is progged to move ENE into the Central Rockies late today before emerging over the Central High Plains late tonight into early Wednesday. Strong southwest winds through the column are progged to develop downstream over the Central Plains. Much like yesterday, the dryline will be on the move and is expected to mix eastward as we move through the day with deep layer unidirectional flow anticipated in a deeply mixed pbl. However, low level winds are progged to back late in the day as the sfc low moves into Central Kansas. This will allow the low level moisture to return across south central and parts of central KS late in the afternoon or early in the evening which makes for a complicated forecast. The better height falls and large-scale forcing for ascent are expected to arrive this evening and tonight when storm coverage may increase as the LLJ ramps up across south central Kansas. The warm/moist sector is progged to have mid 60 dewpoints resulting in 2500+ J/KG of MLCAPE with steep mid-level lapse rates and deep layer shear of 50+ knots which should support some supercell storms in the warm sector. A tornado threat is expected to increase, especially in the early evening as the LLJ ramps up. The threat for severe storms may linger beyond midnight into the early morning hours. Another round of severe storms will be possible on Wednesday afternoon and evening. There is a possibility that we have morning showers and storms which could impact what unfolds during the afternoon hours. But given quality moisture in the warm sector and what appears to be rather weak inhibition, we may not need much of a break before storms redevelop. As the shortwave trough translates eastward away from the area, we will see mid/upper ridging build over the central CONUS on Thursday resulting in mild an dry conditions. Afternoon highs are expected to climb into the 80s areawide. Another mid/upper trough will move out of the Northern Intermountain Region and into the Rockies late in the day on Friday. Ahead of this system, a nocturnal LLJ is expected to nose into south central KS early on Friday where we could see a rogue storm or two during the predawn hours. However, better chances for showers and storms are expected to arrive late in the day and into the evening hours. We continue to see some differences in how this feature will emerge from the Rockies late on Friday which will impact the magnitude and coverage of severe storms with low confidence in the details at this time. Sat-Mon...A stable post-frontal regime is anticipated across the area on Saturday with seasonably cool air expected. Afternoon highs are only expected to climb into the lower 60s for most areas. As high pressure settles over the area Sat night into early Sun we could see some areas of frost develop as low temperatures fall into the 30s. A mid/upper ridge is progged to translate eastward into the central CONUS Sun-Mon with rising heights/increasing thickness supporting rising temperatures across the area. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1222 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Low-level wind shear will impact south central and southeast Kansas TAF sites through early Tuesday as the low-level jet ramps up. Some MVFR cigs will be confined to southeast Kansas impacting KCNU through mid-morning before mixing out. Gusty southerly winds may gust around 35-40 knots at times on Tuesday afternoon as the dryline mixes eastward over the area once again. Widely scattered storms will become increasingly likely along and east of the dryline after 21-22Z with severe storms likely. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Extreme grassland fire danger is expected again today for areas west of Interstate 135 with very dry air and strong southwest winds developing this afternoon. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 9 pm. Dry air will linger across central Kansas through much of the week and with breezy southerly winds returning on Thursday and Friday, a very high grassland fire danger will return for parts of central Kansas. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033-047-048-050-067-082-091. && $$ DISCUSSION...MWM AVIATION...MWM FIRE WEATHER...MWM  091 FXUS63 KJKL 140706 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 306 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Unseasonably warm conditions are expected for much of the next week. The warmest days are forecast to be Tuesday through Saturday. New daily record high temperatures are possible, if not likely, on the warmest days. - There is a low chance of showers and thunderstorms this morning into the afternoon, mainly for northern and western counties, though there is poor agreement on any activity occurring. Additional showers/storms are possible Thursday and Thursday night, and again into the weekend. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 301 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2026 An active jet stream and storm track resides from northwestern Mexico northeast through the Midwest into the Great Lakes region through the period, with strong ridging through all layers of the atmosphere centered over the far southeastern CONUS and adjacent western Atlantic waters. Models depict an increase in moisture and instability impinging on northern and western counties early this morning and lasting into afternoon. This appears to be due to a passing disturbance crossing the southern Great Lakes region increasing the low-level jet across central and northeastern Kentucky, but the GFS does indicate a theta- e gradient extending from the Lower Tennessee Valley northeast into southwestern and central Ohio through 12z-15z this morning. While the vast majority of models keep eastern Kentucky dry, the GFS in particular does indicate a bit of isentropic lift along this boundary this morning which could result in shower activity forming upstream as early as this morning and then moving into the area later this morning into early afternoon. Will thus carry low PoPs across primarily western and northern areas through the afternoon today. It does bear mentioning that as of 07z this morning cloud tops are currently cooling where the GFS progs the weak isentropic lift to be currently. Models depict another theta-e gradient moving from central Tennessee north into central Kentucky this evening into the overnight. This will be the leading edge of a drier low-level air mass, and models suggest isentropic descent along this boundary, at least for the evening period, indicating subsidence. Will thus expect increased ridge-valley splits and clearer skies compared to this morning. For Wednesday, a passing disturbance well north and west of eastern Kentucky will push increasing warm advection and southwesterly flow across the area, with weak isentropic upglide again likely serving as a trigger for any showers and thunderstorms during the day Wednesday. However, these appear to stay northwest of our area, so will keep the forecast dry but with highest PoPs north of Interstate 64. Will thus expect another very warm day in the 80s across the forecast area, with a few 90-degree readings possible in the Big Sandy Basin where a southerly component to the low-level flow will promote some increased downslope warming. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 304 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2026 An amplified long wave pattern continues through early next week. A strong and persistent ridge will remain planted from central Mexico to Florida through early this weekend. This feature will then pivot more southeast by early next week, as an onslaught of eastern Pacific energy throughout this week finally dislodges it. Model agreement is decent early on, but then becomes less, with greater differences showing up by this weekend and into early next week. Eastern Kentucky will continue to find itself under the influence of the strong ridging to our southeast through Saturday. Well above normal temperatures, nearing record status at times, will remain in place. Highs each day will average in the mid to upper 80s, with a few low 90s possible, especially Wednesday and Friday/Saturday. Lows will average in the 50s and 60s each night. The next decent chance of rain will move in Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, as a well-defined short wave trough tracks east from the middle Mississippi Valley through the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. PoPs will peak in the 40-60% range. Unfortunately, QPF continues to look lean, with most locations likely seeing a tenth of an inch or less, although any thunderstorms could locally overachieve. A much deeper trough will move from the Plains to the eastern CONUS this weekend into early next week, with a surface cold front finally making it across the Commonwealth. QPF could be more substantial and beneficial with this system; however, will await further model trends before getting too optimistic. PoPs peak in the 50-60% range Saturday night, with some chances extending into Sunday, depending on the timing. This cold front will also bring an end to the heatwave, with highs retreating to mainly the 60s for both Sunday and Monday. Some frost potential may follow for Sunday night and perhaps Monday night in the valleys, depending on model trends. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2026 VFR conditions prevailed at TAF issuance and are likely to prevail through the period. A disturbance grazing the area has allowed for the formation of a low-level jet and LLWS across the TAF sites during the early morning hours. This will diminish near or shortly after sunrise this morning. Otherwise, some isolated shower and/or thunderstorm activity is possible Tuesday but confidence in impacts and timing was too low to retain in the latest TAF issuance outside of a PROB30 mention. Southwest winds at 5 to 15 kts with gusts of 15 to 25 kts should return for most of the daylight hours on Tuesday, with strongest winds west of I-75 and near/north of I-64. These winds will subside with the loss of daytime heating Tuesday evening. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CMC LONG TERM...JKL AVIATION...CMC  122 FXUS63 KDTX 140706 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 306 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Stretch of warm conditions throughout the work week with daytime temperatures in the 70s each day for most locations. - There is a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms Tuesday night, mainly between 8 pm and 2 am. Storms will be capable of producing wind gusts to 60 mph, large hail and isolated tornadoes. - There is a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms Wednesday and still another round of storms possible Thursday. - Each episode of storms brings the possibility for locally heavy rainfall. && .DISCUSSION... The well advertised, several day long, active stretch of weather is underway. The warm front has become established across northern MI with the broad surface low back over Iowa. The most recent mid level wave ejecting from the longwave trough over the western conus pairing with a strong low level jet has resulted in an expansive line of convection spanning from northern MI back into southern MN early this morning. The best instability and shear remain to the west but as the jet strengthens and pushes east, it will bring increasing levels of shear and instability into southern MI. Forecast starts with Severe Thunderstorm Watch #107 across Mid MI to account for the current upstream activity tracking through the region overnight. This will mostly be for a hail and wind threat. Last of the overnight convection should be east of the area for the most part by 12Z this morning leaving us in a bit of a lull through the early part of the day. Many of the hires models still show hints of precip along the warm front at times this afternoon which wouldn't be out of the question with the strength of warm air advection and wealth of instability (2k J/kg) present, but we'll lack stronger upper level forcing until later this afternoon and evening when the next mid level shortwave and convectively driven surface low ripple along the front through southern MI. SPC continues to have the whole area in a Slight Risk of severe storms which looks to target the 00-06Z window this evening into tonight. With similar overall setup, forcing, low level jet, moisture quality, CAPE, 40 knots of shear, and steep mid level lapse rates, etc to what is going on in the Midwest and Great Lakes tonight, see no reason this risk should change moving forward. Risks will be large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. Even after the initial convective cluster rolls through, the upper level trough will drift over the Midwest by late Tuesday night which will steer additional mid level energy across the area with the stall front still draped across Mid MI. This keeps southern MI in a Marginal Risk for additional severe weather on Wednesday. Additionally, a growing threat will be for possible flooding. With PWATs up around 1.25 inches or more through the period, and surface dewpoints in the 60s, there will be ample moisture for these storms to use. QPF during the period of time from Tuesday night through Wednesday night is around 1.5 inches across the whole CWA. With the potential for convection training over the same locations, some local probabilistic guidance shows the potential for 2 to 4 inches of rainfall during this time. This combined with previous ground soaking rain over the last week and several rivers already running high could lead to flooding concerns. WPC has a portion of the area in a Slight Risk on Tuesday and Marginal Risk on Wednesday. Upper level trough will cross the area on Thursday providing yet another chance for storms. Mild conditions continue on Friday but we should get a break from precip with increasing heights aloft and surface ridging sliding through. This looks to be a short lived break though as the next deep trough is already working east across the Plains which will be additional precip chances through the weekend. && .MARINE... Showers and thunderstorms exit east this morning in favor of drier weather by afternoon. Southwest flow reemerges across the south with a gradual veering trend in wind direction to the north as a warm front settles near Saginaw Bay. This front will be the focus for another round of showers and thunderstorms to develop late this evening and overnight. Some of these storms may be strong to severe, capable of large hail, heavy rain, and wind gusts over 34 knots. This unsettled pattern persist into the mid-week period. Wind and wave concerns will mainly be tied to thunderstorm activity. && .HYDROLOGY... An active pattern will bring periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms tonight through Thursday. Each episode brings the possibility for locally heavy rainfall, particularly where focused areas of thunderstorms develop. Rainfall amounts of half an inch to an inch will be possible for a round of rain tonight. Additional rainfall between a half and one and a half inches currently forecast to fall between Wednesday and Thursday. While widespread flooding is not expected, some minor flooding of low lying, poor drainage and urban areas along with rises on area rivers are possible. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 1255 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 AVIATION... Ascent provided by low level jet and warm advection will bring showers and thunderstorms to the terminals overnight. Line of convection trailing a center of low pressure is expected to push across Southeast Michigan in the 8-12z timeframe. Timed out TEMPO group for thunderstorms from north to south. Low level saturation and cloud is anticipated early Tuesday, included prevailing MVFR ceilings. Dry conditions for much of Tuesday with another period of thunderstorm activity after 03z 4/15. DTW/D21 Convection...Thunderstorm activity is possible between 10- 14z Tuesday. DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * High for ceilings aob 5000 feet tonight and Tuesday. * Moderate for thunderstorms early Tuesday morning. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DRK MARINE.......MV HYDROLOGY....DRK AVIATION.....CB You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.  607 FXUS61 KRLX 140706 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 306 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms has been expanded by the Storm Prediction Center to include northern portions of the forecast area for this afternoon and evening, and far northwestern portions of the forecast area for Wednesday afternoon and evening. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) A summer-like pattern resumes with record to near-record heat, and mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms possible through the week that offer little drought relief. There is a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms across northern portions of the area this afternoon and evening, which then shifts to far northwestern portions of the area for Wednesday afternoon and evening. - 2) Showers and thunderstorms are more likely Thursday night as a system crosses. - 3) Showers and thunderstorms are again likely Saturday night, when a cold front crosses. - 4) The strong cold front will break the summer pattern but provide minimal drought relief, with a stretch of dry, cooler weather to begin the new week. Morning frost is possible. - 5) Minimum afternoon relative humidity percentiles will bottom out in the 20s and 30s through at least the next 7 days. With breezy conditions most days, and only a couple of opportunities for a conditional wetting rain, afternoon and evening fire danger is likely to be enhanced. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A mid/upper-level ridge building slightly through Wednesday, and then rebuilding Friday behind a Thursday/Thursday night system, will resume the summer-like weather, with record to near-record heat through the balance of the week, along with unseasonably mild nights. Weak, flat mid/upper-level short wave troughs will somewhat focus low coverage showers and thunderstorms today, with isolated elevated convection this morning. With a corridor of increased shear and instability to the north and west, thunderstorms this afternoon and evening can become strong to Marginally severe across northern portions of the forecast area, the southward extent aided by west to northwest shear/Corfidi vectors. The primary threat is damaging wind, given marginally adequate shear amid large temperature-dew point spreads. As the ridge builds, isolated to scattered convection becomes more diurnally-driven and shifts farther north and west, perhaps even entirely out of the forecast area tonight into Thursday. The Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms becomes confined to far northwestern portions of the forecast area for Wednesday afternoon and evening, the primary threat again being damaging wind given the marginally adequate shear amid large temperature-dew point spreads. Friday into early Saturday look mainly dry between systems in the next two key messages. KEY MESSAGE 2... A more stout mid/upper-level short wave trough will approach Thursday and cross Thursday night, with showers likely and thunderstorms possible. This short wave is likely to get close enough Thursday afternoon to enhance diurnal convection. Shear is forecast to increase as a result, but the lower CAPE forecast will have to be watched for possible increase with time, which would increase the severe thunderstorm threat given the increased shear. Even with the greater precipitation coverage and severe threat, precipitation amounts are not likely to provide significant drought relief. The approaching short wave may also abbreviated high temperatures a bit Thursday, as well as in its wake on Friday. KEY MESSAGE 3... Showers are likely and thunderstorms possible as a strong cold front crosses Saturday night. This system could again get close enough to enhance diurnal convection. The instability forecast will again need watched given increased shear and ideal to slightly later than ideal diurnal timing with the system. However, this will again provide minimal drought relief, especially given another dry period to follow, next key message. KEY MESSAGE 4... A period of dry, cooler weather will start the new week, as cool Canadian high pressure builds behind a large mid/upper- level long wave but transient trough moves offshore. Frost is possible Monday and especially Tuesday mornings, the latter/later of which is when the high is most likely to be overhead. KEY MESSAGE 5... Minimum afternoon relative humidity percentiles will bottom out in the 20s and 30s through at least the next 7 days. With breezy conditions most days, and only a couple of opportunities for a conditional wetting rain, afternoon and evening fire danger is likely to be enhanced. Even amid the unstable afternoon and evening conditions this week, dew points ranging from the upper 40s southeast to mid 50s to low 60s northwest are lower than typical summer values, which result in the low minimum afternoon relative humidity percentiles given the summer-like high temperatures. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A summer-like pattern continues this period, with patchy VFR stratocumulus and cumulus 4-7 kft, highest with the peak afternoon mixing height. VCTS/CB was included in northern sites PKB and CKB for the possibility of elevated convection this morning, but surface- based convection is possible this afternoon and evening, and there is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms covering these same two locations, PKB and CKB (and near EKN) for this afternoon and evening. Light southwest surface flow early this morning will be gusty again today, into the 20-25 kt range, before becoming light south to southwest again tonight. Flow aloft will be light to moderate west to southwest, with enough low level flow to preclude early morning fog formation. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Thunderstorms may have direct impacts on TAF sites today. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 04/14/26 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... VFR conditions will generally prevail through the week. However, brief periods of MVFR to IFR restrictions are possible within isolated showers and thunderstorms, with a higher likelihood of MVFR to IFR restrictions Thursday night and late Saturday. && .CLIMATE... Forecast / Record High Temperatures ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Tue, 4/14 | Wed, 4/15 | Thu, 4/16 | Fri, 4/17 | ------------------------------------------------------------------------ CRW | 86 / 88 (2018) | 89 / 89 (1994) | 87 / 89 (2002) | 84 / 89 (1976) | HTS | 87 / 87 (1941) | 89 / 87 (2024) | 85 / 89 (2024) | 85 / 87 (1976) | CKB | 83 / 87 (2018) | 86 / 83 (1974) | 83 / 86 (2002) | 79 / 88 (1969) | PKB | 85 / 85 (1941) | 88 / 84 (2024) | 85 / 88 (2002) | 82 / 89 (1976) | BKW | 80 / 83 (2018) | 84 / 82 (2012) | 82 / 84 (2002) | 79 / 84 (1976) | EKN | 82 / 85 (2018) | 85 / 81 (2012) | 82 / 85 (2012) | 77 / 87 (1976) | ------------------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------- Sat, 4/18 | --------------------- CRW | 89 / 90 (2019) | HTS | 88 / 89 (1955) | CKB | 86 / 88 (1976) | PKB | 87 / 91 (1976) | BKW | 83 / 86 (1976) | EKN | 84 / 88 (1976) | --------------------- && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TRM AVIATION...TRM CLIMATE...TRM  688 FXUS63 KGRR 140710 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 310 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe thunderstorms overnight into early Tuesday Morning - Severe Thunderstorms possible late Tuesday into early Wednesday - Flood Potential remains elevated through the week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 259 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Severe thunderstorms overnight into early Tuesday Morning A boundary continues to move through northern lower Michigan overnight through early this morning. Severe storms with large hail have already moved along and north of the US 10 corridor. While there remains some CIN, upwards of -250 J/kg south of that corridor, there is just enough mixed layer CAPE to allow for the strong 0-3KM shear and LLJ to continue storm generation. Latest CAMS, especially the HRRR, have the convection from across Wisconsin swinging through the region This morning with strong to severe storms moving through central Lower Michigan through sunrise. Strongest storms should be north of I 96 with the northern boundary north of US 10. DCAPE with frontal passage will be 600 J/kg at best. However, mid level lapse rates are trending around 7 C/km and the shear vector remains west to east, which could allow stronger winds to mix to the surface around sunrise. So while damaging winds are possible, large hail remains our biggest concern. The line is expected to begin to move into the region around 09, along with the mid level low and corresponding wave. That wave along with the LLJ will move into southern Quebec and to the east by 12Z which will end this morning's threat of severe weather. - Severe Thunderstorms possible late Tuesday into early Wednesday Any tertiary showers this morning should linger to the south and will be in more stable air and not expected to be strong or severe. Latest SPC Day 1 Outlook for later Today into Wednesday continues to have almost all of lower Michigan in a slight risk. The enhanced risk has shifted to cover most of southern Wisconsin. The temperature of Lake Michigan shouldn't impede storms as it should provide a cold pool for them to move over. The persistent southwesterly flow should correspond with warm air advection ahead of the incoming surface low. That should allow the atmosphere to recover by late this afternoon ahead of this afternoon and evening's system. Daytime heating of 70s to low 80s, especially south of I 96 should provide MLCAPE of 1 to 2K J/kg. The wind profiles favor supercell formation. Latest CAMS continue to have storms forming after 22Z and continuing through at least the first half of the overnight period as the strong 850mb jet of upwards of 45 kts should continue to fuel storm generation into early Wednesday. Based on those factors, there remains a good chance for strong to severe storms late Tuesday afternoon with damaging winds and large hail the main threats. However, with low LCL's and strong shear, an isolated tornado is possible. - Flood Potential remains elevated through the week A flood watch will remain into Wednesday. Heavy downpours from the latest storms has QPE of around 2.0 inches of rainfall with QPF to FFG of upwards of 150 percent. The mid level flow has kept the storms to train through the US 10 corridor and that pattern should continue until the above mentioned boundary moves through after 12Z. The heavy downpour threat will shift to south of the I 96 corridor today, however QPF through Thursday remains a widespread 2 to 3 inches. So urban, stream and flash flooding remains a concern. For information on the increasing flood threat, see the Hydrology section below. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 132 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Overall and generally, things remain on track as compared to the forecast from 6 hours ago. The main difference is that the showers and storms are further north than previously expected. There have been a few-sct showers and isolated storms in between the terminals. The widespread activity remains well north of the terminals, but will eventually make its way down this south. It looks like the line of storms over Wisconsin will approach KMKG around 08z or so, and press SE thereafter. the majority of sites will see MVFR to LIFR conditions with the visibilities/ceilings with the showers/storms. Conditions will be slow to improve this morning/afternoon after the showers. VFR conditions are likely to return later this afternoon. We will see showers and storms redevelop then toward 23-01z as the next wave of low pressure moves through. We have gone with predominate showers/storms after 23-01z at all sites with LIFR conditions expected. && .MARINE... Issued at 302 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Special Marine warnings for thunderstorms will continue this morning with hazardous winds and waves for small craft are expected this morning. Strong to severe storms are expected through sunrise. Thunderstorms, possibly severe thunderstorms with hail and wind, are possible over Lake Michigan this evening/tonight and Tuesday evening/night. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 302 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .Update... Based on the fact that another 2 to 3 inches has fallen upstream and should make its way to the Croton gauge later today. ..Previous... The further north you go in the Lower Peninsula, the more significant the flooding situation becomes. Around an inch of rain fell across much of the area along and north of the Muskegon River watershed over the weekend, with a much heavier swath of 2-4 inches across the Manistee River watershed and the headwaters portions of the Muskegon basin. Coming on the heels of one of the wettest springs on record so far, and in the midst of a significantly active (and wet) ongoing weather pattern, the water that's already on the ground is going to produce renewed flooding on the Muskegon River (and many others rivers further north as well). With another 2-3" of rain over the next few days in the Muskegon, we're now expecting the most significant flood on the Muskegon River since the flood of 2018. If the next few days of rains overperform (which is entirely possible), the forecasted crests will go even higher. If you live near the Muskegon river, now is the time to prepare for significant flooding. Meanwhile, further south, conditions in the Grand River basin are in slightly better shape, although water is still high from all of the recent rains. We've finally dropped below stage at all locations in the basin, but that trend will soon reverse as water levels start to climb again throughout the week. With an additional 2-3" of rain expected in this area as well, it's beginning to look like the region will generally repeat the flood levels experienced last week. In addition to the river flooding, some of the thunderstorms we're expecting over the next few days could be very slow moving over the same areas repeatedly. If this happens, some localized rain totals of 4+ inches are possible in the next few days. If this happens over one of the urban areas, significant fast- developing urban flooding is possible. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for MIZ037>040-043>046- 050>052. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for LMZ844>849. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ844>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...Ceru AVIATION...NJJ MARINE...CAS HYDROLOGY...AMD  412 FXUS61 KPBZ 140713 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 313 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Forecasts for the heat and possible record breaking temperatures remained largely in line with the previous cycle. The Marginal Risk for Severe Weather was expanded across the entire region Today. Storms today look to pose a primarily damaging wind threat, possibly in two separate waves. A Slight Risk for Severe Weather has been introduced to areas north of I-70 on Wednesday for what could be more of an all hazards severe weather day. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Anomalously warm temperatures this week. Daily record high max and minimum temperatures will be challenged and possibly broken, especially on Wednesday. 2) Increasing daily storm chances this week with a possible multi- day MCS event. Areawide marginal Risk of severe weather on Tuesday. 3) Severe risk continues Wednesday with a Slight Risk of severe weather north of I-70 and Marginal Risk between I-68 and I-70. Storm chances to continue Thursday as well. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... The ridge anchored across the Southeast and eastern Gulf continues to influence our weather through the week. At its strongest, the ridge will near 590dam (just over 2 standard deviations above normal for this time of year). This abnormally strong ridge will continue to support abnormally high temperatures (over 3 standard deviations above normal) across the region through the work week and possibly as late as Saturday. Our location on the northwestern side of the ridge will continue warm and moist southwesterly flow over the coming days. Locally, heat looks to peak on Wednesday, with 500mb heights hitting 580dam over the city and widespread 850mb temperatures between 14-16C, suggesting that unhindered mixing would see temperatures surge into at least the middle 80s. Probabilities of high temperatures over 80 degrees remain near and over 60% for areas south of I-80 each day from Tuesday- Thursday and then again on Saturday. Friday looks like heating may be interrupted by a rain-laden cold front pushing through the region. This could finally help shake up the pattern before models seem to indicate another Low moving through the Great Lakes early this weekend. Record high max and min temperatures look like they will be tied or set at several sites across our region, especially on Wednesday and Thursday. Daily rain chances look to be the only thing possibly keeping a lid on record challenging runaway heating. These chances are highest north, closer to the periphery of the ridge, and thus probabilities of record setting heat generally decrease from south to north. Each site features at least one day with a >40% chance to set a new record high and PHD (shortest climate record) features 3 days with >70% chance. Concurrently, each site also features at least 2 days with >50% chance of setting new record high minimum temperatures and PIT features 5 straight days with >65% chance of doing so. PIT features several "low hanging fruit" in this category with 3 such daily high minimum temperatures in the 50s. Our forecast for Wednesday lows may break the old record of 58 by a whopping 8 degrees. Minor heat risk continues areawide today through Thursday before retracting some on Friday. Heat impacts will primarily be felt by those who are extremely sensitive to heat and those without cooling/hydration. Speckled moderate risk areas continue to crop up Wednesday and Saturday and are expanding in area, mainly in the Ohio and Mon river valleys. KEY MESSAGE 2... We are at the beginning of what looks like it could be a multi- day MCS event across the Great Lakes and into our region. This pattern owing to our anomalously strong ridge feels much more like a June setup than an April one. Warm and moist southwesterly flow will set the table each afternoon for storms to fire along decaying or residual boundaries left over from the previous nights convection and renewed convection cresting the top of the ridge could press into the forecast area overnight starting the whole process again. This is the kind of setup in which each day could be at least a Marginal Risk day, but severe weather in the region is not a guarantee and model spread is quite large. This low confidence and high spread forecast is due to each day being largely dependent on what happens the night prior and morning of. As such, these will be difficult forecasts to pin down. An ongoing MCS across MI and WI will influence our local forecast today and then continued convection around the periphery of the ridge late this afternoon could impact us again late tonight. At this time, two possible shots at severe weather look in play for us today: 1. The ongoing MCS in WI and MI moves SE through the morning and storms begin to spark again in a rapidly improving thermodynamic environment somewhere across the eastern Ohio river valley early this afternoon. 2. Storms fire late this afternoon near the periphery of the ridge in Michigan, congeal into one or multiple line segments and advance SE towards us into a quickly worsening thermodynamic environment late tonight into Wednesday morning. Both scenarios represent possible severe weather threats but are very different and NEITHER are guaranteed to produce severe weather for us. The early afternoon severe may have a lower likelihood of occurrence requiring some breakdown of the ridge in place, but would have a much higher likelihood of severe. The late night storms may have a slightly higher likelihood of occurrence, but feature a more muted likelihood of severe, possibly with only scattered showers surviving that late and this far southeast. Thermodynamics are far more supportive of early afternoon convection, with the HREF mean CAPE field suggesting we could have between 750-1000 J/kg of CAPE collocated with 25-35 knots of shear. A reasonably more unstable solution (possibly representing a slower approach of the boundary), lying closer to the 90th percentile, could see CAPE values climb as high as 2000 J/kg largely in Ohio. If they occur, storms this afternoon would have a much better chance of being severe, featuring mainly a damaging wind threat. The hail and tornado threats look to be lower, with more muted lapse rates than yesterday's forecast cycle, less CAPE in the -20 to -30C range and relatively high LCL's. Hodographs still do show some low-level curvature depending on your model but it looks highly CAM dependent. Overnight, it looks likely that we decouple in a rapidly worsening environment. Several CAMs depict one or more bowing segments moving across southern MI towards us late tonight. These segments tend to move quicker than modeling suggests but would still likely not enter the region until after 2am or so. By this time it looks unlikely but still possible to see a damaging wind threat from these storms. SPC has expanded the Day 1 Marginal Risk to encompass the entire forecast area. KEY MESSAGE 3... The ridging and shortwave pattern and thus multi-day MCS event continues into Wednesday. Wednesday sees more impressive heating and increasing moisture advection in continued southwesterly flow. As such, model soundings feature well over 2000 J/kg of CAPE across much of the region, very impressive for our region in April. This comes hand in hand with a 5-10kt increase in shear when compared to Tuesday. These elements could allow for isolated to scattered super cellular structures to develop across the region or for a quick reinvigoration of any ongoing MCS/MCV left over from Tuesday night. Multi-day MCS propagation forecasting is very low confidence, with Wednesday's forecast highly dependent on Tuesday night. Storms on Wednesday look like they could bring all severe hazards, with increasing low-level moisture lowering LCLs and more robust CAPE at the SFC and in the -20 to -30C range. SPC has introduced a Marginal Risk to our region north of the Mason- Dixon Line and a Slight Risk north of I-70 on Wednesday. Storms look likely to continue on Thursday, but the pattern breaks down a little as a more meaningful SFC low moves through the Great Lakes. This could end the multi-day MCS event but could bring its own renewed chance for storms along the draping cold front. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Earlier convection north of I-80 has largely dissipated, leaving MVFR ceilings in their wake. To the south, VFR conditions prevail. Southwest wind around 10 MPH will persist through the night. Past 12Z, confidence in the overall progression of events is rather low, as mesoscale influences will play a heavy role in the outcome. A few scattered showers appear possible under continued VFR ceilings around 12Z, and these were handled via TEMPO groups. Daytime mixing should once again allow southwest gusts between 20 and 30 knots from late morning through the afternoon. The greatest uncertainty lies with potential convective development this afternoon. This will depend on the breakdown of an upstream ridge and how well a warm layer aloft sets up. A weaker upstream ridge could allow a line of convection to set up to our northwest by midday and sink across the region through the afternoon. However, a stronger ridge and warm layer aloft could suppress convective development either partially or almost totally. In any case, save for ongoing MVFR ceilings into the afternoon north of I-80, VFR should be the predominant condition. Did continue with 3-hour PROB30 groups for the potential afternoon convective line noted above. Again, timing and even occurrence of convection are low to medium confidence at best. Another round of convection may approach after midnight from the north, but elected to leave out mention of that for now to allow today's events to play out. Outlook... Restrictions from showers and thunderstorms will persist into the weekend, largely dependent on convection activity developing over the Great Lakes and Midwest. && .CLIMATE... See below for record max highs and max lows this week: Tuesday, April 15th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 86F (1883) 64F (1896) Wheeling, WV: 87F (1941) 60F (2014) Morgantown, WV: 86F (2018) 66F (2014) New Philadelphia, OH: 82F (2023) 56F (2006) Zanesville, OH: 87F (1941) 60F (1899) DuBois, PA: 86F (2023) 60F (2014) Wednesday, April 16th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 85F (1883) 61F (1967) Wheeling, WV: 82F (2010) 59F (2002) Morgantown, WV: 86F (1993) 65F (1967) New Philadelphia, OH: 82F (2010) 58F (2023) Zanesville, OH: 85F (1941) 61F (1972) DuBois, PA: 79F (2003) 56F (2002) Thursday, April 17th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 86F (2002) 63F (2017) Wheeling, WV: 86F (1945) 64F (2002) Morgantown, WV: 88F (2002) 64F (2012) New Philadelphia, OH: 85F (2002) 62F (2017) Zanesville, OH: 86F (2002) 65F (1912) DuBois, PA: 82F (2012) 59F (1976) Friday, April 18th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 87F (1896) 63F (1896) Wheeling, WV: 84F (2002) 64F (2002) Morgantown, WV: 89F (1976) 64F (1960) New Philadelphia, OH: 84F (2002) 60F (1982) Zanesville, OH: 88F (1896) 66F (1896) DuBois, PA: 83F (2002) 60F (2002) Saturday, April 19th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 90F (1896) 64F (1896) Wheeling, WV: 85F (2025) 63F (2002) Morgantown, WV: 92F (1976) 64F (2013) New Philadelphia, OH: 86F (1976) 57F (2019) Zanesville, OH: 92F (1896) 66F (1896) DuBois, PA: 87F (1976) 61F (2002) && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AK AVIATION...CL  886 FXUS64 KCRP 140713 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 213 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 209 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Moderate risk of rip currents and periods of minor coastal flooding will persist, increasing towards the end of the week - Very warm to hot conditions and predominately dry through the end of the week across South Texas - A cold front is forecast to move through the region late this weekend && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 209 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Mid-level flow across the region will generally remain southwesterly through much of the forecast period as broad mid-level high pressure persists over the eastern Gulf with several mid-level disturbances and troughing over the western CONUS. A series of weak shortwaves will track well north of the region, keeping South Texas dry for much of the remaining week. At the surface, an elongated high over the western Atlantic will expand over the eastern Gulf and maintain a persistent onshore flow regime through the week, strengthening around the end of the workweek ahead of our next cold front. This will support moisture advection and will promote increasing PWATs with the GEFS ensemble mean reaching 1.75" this upcoming weekend. Another cold front is progged to move across South Texas sometime Saturday/Sunday morning with increasing rain chances (low to moderate) due to above normal moisture but a persistent cap will likely limit vertical development. Lower rain chances may persist into next workweek. Subsidence across the region and stable conditions the rest of this workweek will combine with periods of partly cloudy skies to keep temperature trends above seasonal norms, with highs generally in the mid to upper 80s along the Coastal Bend and upper 80s to mid 90s inland. Overnight lows will generally range from the upper 60s inland to the mid 70s along the coast. Expect cooler conditions behind the front with mid to upper 70s across much of the region Sunday and Monday afternoons. A Moderate rip current risk and potential minor coastal flooding are likely to continue this week driven by persistent onshore flow, longer-period swells up to around 8 seconds, and 4-6 foot wave heights. PETSS guidance has increasing levels heading into the weekend with astronomical tides as we approach a new moon on April 17th. Conditions will continue to be monitored and additional Minor Coastal Flood Advisories may be issued as needed. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 209 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A mix of MVFR/VFR conditions are expected overnight before all sites return to VFR tomorrow morning. Winds will increase once again late tomorrow morning through the afternoon with gusts to 30 knots at times. MVFR is possible again Tuesday night, but due to low confidence did not include in the TAFs at this time. Therefore, just went with a SCT group at the MVFR heights and BKN group just above VFR levels. && .MARINE... Issued at 209 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A Moderate to Fresh (BF 4-5) onshore flow will persist through the week with periods of strong (BF 6) flow. Winds will back to a northeasterly flow with the front, increasing to Fresh to Strong through late this upcoming weekend with Small Craft Advisory conditions likely. Rain-free conditions expected through the end of the workweek but rain/storm chances increase to low to moderate as the front moves across the waters. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 209 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Fire weather concerns remain generally low due to increased low- level moisture promoted by persistent onshore flow and elevated humidity. However, inland areas-particularly across the western Brush Country-may experience afternoon minimum RH values dropping into the 30-40% range during the latter half of the week at times with warmer temperatures and moderate onshore winds (10-20 mph). Despite these factors, abundant moisture and ERC values in the 20- 25th percentile range and RFTI values near or at zero will limit fire weather potential. As a result, elevated fire weather conditions are not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 83 71 83 71 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 84 68 85 69 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 93 72 90 71 / 0 10 10 0 Alice 88 70 88 70 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 82 73 83 73 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 92 71 89 70 / 0 0 20 10 Kingsville 86 70 86 71 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 80 73 80 74 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BF/80 AVIATION...JCP/84  760 FXUS65 KMSO 140715 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 115 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Tonight/Wednesday: Pass level snow, potential minor travel impacts. - Wednesday night/Thursday: Strong cold front with snow levels to valley floors but light valley accumulations. Moderate pass level travel impacts continue. Snow squall potential in Southwest Montana. - Next Weekend: Warmer and drier. Today through Wednesday Morning: A broad, disorganized upper-level trough remains over the region early this morning, producing light remnant showers. Expect a mostly dry day for most populated areas with seasonable temperatures, meanwhile occasional showers continue on the terrain. Breezy southwest winds will develop this afternoon, with gusts reaching 25 mph. The next plume of Pacific moisture will begin moving into the Northern Rockies this evening and continue through Wednesday ahead of an approaching low-pressure system. The heaviest precipitation is expected to focus across north-central Idaho into northwest Montana. Snow levels will hover near 4,500 feet, keeping most snow impacts confined to the higher terrain. While Lookout, Marias, and Lolo passes will likely (60-80% chance) receive a few inches of new snow, accumulations on roadways are expected to be primarily restricted to pass elevations, quickly turning to wet roads just below pass levels. Midweek Cold Front & Snow Squall Potential Wednesday Afternoon- Thursday: A strong cold front associated with the low- pressure system will sweep through the Northern Rockies late Wednesday afternoon and evening. This front will increase precipitation intensity while causing snow levels to drop rapidly. Current model guidance indicates the bulk of the moisture will focus along the frontal boundary. Travelers should be alert for potential snow squalls as the front moves through southwest Montana Wednesday evening. Rapidly deteriorating visibility and slick roads should create moderate travel impacts on mountain passes Wednesday night and Thursday morning. While the strongest dynamics for a prolonged event appear to stay north of our area, wrap-around moisture may impact Glacier National Park through Thursday. There continues to be a minor chance (25%) for a weak closed low to develop over Southwest Montana, enhancing precipitation there, something watch. Widespread shower activity is expected across the region Thursday; valley locations will likely see snow showers, but accumulations will be minimal. High elevations should see light additional accumulations through Friday under northwest flow. The Weekend & Beyond: A ridge of high pressure will shift over the region this weekend, ushering in a warming and drying trend. This reprieve will be short-lived, however, as the next weather disturbance is projected (by 80% of ensemble clusters) to arrive by early next week. && .AVIATION...A broad upper trough remains overhead early this morning with some light remnant showers and mountain obscurations ongoing. VFR conditions will be common at terminals today as ceilings lift but some mountain obscurations will continue, especially across Northwest Montana. Southwest winds will pick up to 10-15 kts with gusts of 20-25 kts at terminal sites this afternoon. Winds will diminish in most valleys from I-90 southward by sunset, but remain elevated in northwest Montana valleys. As precipitation increases tonight, elevated ridgetop winds may occasionally impact terminal sites. Speaking of precipitation, rain/snow will quickly increase along the ID/MT border by early evening and spread eastward overnight. Precipitation in Western Montana valleys will often be lacking because of downsloping conditions. Snow levels will range from 4000-5000 feet by Wednesday morning. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$  642 FXUS64 KFWD 140718 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 218 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered storms may impact our far western counties late this afternoon and evening with a threat for severe hail and wind. - An active pattern with chances for showers and storms will persist this week. There is potential for strong to severe storms again on Wednesday. - A strong cold front on Saturday is expected to bring much cooler temperatures and drier weather to end the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 208 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The rest of this morning will be cloudy and breezy as winds remain elevated and a slug of low-level stratus blankets much of North and Central Texas by daybreak. We'll remain dry going into the early afternoon as lift from our incoming shortwave remains a bit further west. Like yesterday, scattered showers and storms are expected to develop along a dryline draped from the Panhandles down into the Permian Basin in the afternoon in response to upper- level lift spreading into the region, and will spread east through the evening. Latest thinking is that this activity will not reach our northwest and Big Country counties really until the early evening, with scattered storms impacting areas mainly west of the I-35 corridor this evening. With lapse rates near 7.5-8 degC/km, deep layer shear > 40 KT, and plenty of instability, any storm that moves into our area will have a primary threat of large hail and damaging winds. The tornado threat will be non-zero, and may become slightly increased later in the evening as the low-level jet picks up and increases the 0-1 km wind shear and SRH. Additional dryline-induced showers and storms may move in from the southwest overnight into Wednesday morning, but the severe risk with these would decrease the further they get into Central and North Texas due to increasing inhibition. Wednesday afternoon's storm chances remain conditional on just how much activity we observe during the morning. If we see enough in the morning, the atmosphere may be worked over enough to prohibit much additional development in the afternoon, which is what the majority of CAMs are currently outputting. However if there is not much morning convection, then the afternoon environment would be primed for the development of scattered storms as the upper-level shortwave moves across the Plains. Lapse rates ~ 7 degC/km and efficient instability and deep layer shear would promote the potential for some severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds. With uncertainty on the coverage of storms in both the afternoon and evening hours on Wednesday, have lowered forecast PoPs from the NBM. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 208 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 An overall lull in precipitation is expected most of the day Thursday as upper-level ridging moves into the region in between shortwave troughs. With the dryline remaining to our west, afternoon high temperatures will still peak mainly in the 80s across the region. However, isolated showers and storms may occur in North Texas near the Red River on Friday as the ridge gets shoved to the east ahead of our next shortwave. Lee-side troughing out ahead of the incoming shortwave will tighten the pressure gradient, resulting in wind gusts to around 25-30 mph on Friday. The deepening shortwave is expected to cross the Continental Divide Friday into Saturday, shunting the attendant cold front south through the Plains. This front will quickly overtake our resident dryline, moving through North and Central Texas early in the day Saturday. Showers and storms are expected to develop near and along the front as it advances through the region, though severe weather is not anticipated with this activity at this time. Behind the front, expect cooler conditions going into next week with highs in the 60s and 70s both Sunday and Monday. Another chance for precipitation may be possible next Monday as quick moisture return over the cooler post-frontal airmass promotes overrunning precipitation. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 208 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 MVFR cigs are currently spreading across much of North and Central Texas as of 07Z, with ACT already below 2 kft and the clouds now encroaching into eastern D10. All of D10 is expected to drop below 2 kft by 08Z. These cigs and continued breezy south- southeasterly winds will persist through the rest of the morning, gradually lifting above 2 kft around noon, and finally lifting back to VFR by mid-late this afternoon. Sustained speeds and gusts will increase this afternoon at the TAF sites with gusts to around 25 kts not uncommon. There is low potential for some isolated showers this afternoon, but coverage will remain minimal and am not confident enough for inclusion. Similar to yesterday, scattered storm development is expected well west of the TAF sites this afternoon and will spread east tonight, but confidence in how far east the storms will make it is low enough to not include in the TAF for now. Otherwise, expect another stratus intrusion around the same time going into Wednesday morning (~08Z). && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1232 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 83 67 79 66 / 20 50 40 40 Waco 82 67 80 66 / 10 20 40 40 Paris 82 65 79 65 / 10 20 40 40 Denton 82 65 78 64 / 20 50 40 40 McKinney 82 67 78 66 / 10 40 40 40 Dallas 84 67 80 66 / 10 40 40 40 Terrell 82 67 81 66 / 10 20 40 40 Corsicana 84 68 84 69 / 10 10 40 40 Temple 83 67 82 66 / 10 10 40 40 Mineral Wells 83 65 79 63 / 40 50 50 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Prater LONG TERM....Prater AVIATION...Prater  400 FXUS64 KMOB 140719 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 219 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New UPDATE, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 215 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Moderate to extreme drought, with little to no rain over the next 7 days, will exacerbate wildfire activity. - Patchy to areas of fog development, some of which could be dense, is possible over the next few nights. - A moderate rip current risk is expected for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches through midweek. && .UPDATE... Issued at 215 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Current observations and satellite imagery suggests fog has started to expand across the areas mainly north of I-10. Looking at probabilistic guidance, most of the area is flirting in the 60 to 80% of visibilities less than 1/4 mile after about 4 am through around 9 am. As a result, we have wen't ahead and issued a dense for advisory for our area. This looks to be mainly confined to our area underneath the surface high. Fog should quickly mix out after sunrise. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1243 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Light southerly surface winds will occur through the week as a surface ridge remains intact across the southeast states and much of the Gulf. Atmospheric moisture will remain very low despite the southerly winds off the Gulf with PWATs generally ranging from one- half to eight-tenths of an inch. We should see a slight uptick in moisture on Thursday with PWATs nearing one inch as a shortwave moves east across the Tennessee River Valley, but no rain is expected for our area due to a lack of forcing and deep moisture. In fact, the atmosphere above 810mb remains impressively dry due to strong subsidence under the upper ridge that has gripped our region. The next large upper trough will exit the Rockies on Friday and move over the Great Plains to the Mississippi River by week's end. There are no timing differences between the ECMWF and GFS at this time, but the ECMWF does have a higher amplified trough over the eastern CONUS on Sunday compared to the GFS, with the base further south. We could see some isolated to low-end scattered showers and perhaps a storm or two Saturday night into Sunday as a cold front associated with the upper trough passes through our area. Most of this precipitation will likely be confined to areas northwest of I-65 as the line is expected to quickly dissipate. The light southerly wind flow mentioned earlier persisting all week does maintain some boundary-layer moisture across our area that should result in patchy to areas of late night/early morning fog over the course of the week. Visibilities are expected to lower to between 1 to 3 miles across much of the area late overnight into early morning, with patchy dense fog not being ruled out. Due to low confidence in the specific locations potentially being impacted by areas of dense fog, we will just need to see how thing unfold before needing any Dense Fog Advisories. High temperatures inland will reach the middle 80s today through Thursday and likely reach the upper 80s on Friday and Saturday. These highs will be about 5 to 10 degrees above normal today through Thursday and 7 to 12 degrees above normal on Friday and Saturday. Lows inland will be in the middle 50s to around 60 degrees tonight and in the upper 50s to lower 60s Wednesday night through the remainder of the week. Coastal lows will range from 60 to 65 degrees tonight and then in the middle 60s through the remainder of the week. Cooler temperatures will occur early next week behind the frontal passage with highs on Sunday in the middle 70s to lower 80s, with lows Sunday night dipping into the upper 40s to middle 50s. Beach Forecast: A Moderate Risk of rip currents is expected to continue through Friday. /22 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1243 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions will gradually give way to IFR and eventually LIFR conditions mainly north of I-10. LIFR and even some local VLIFR visbys will be possible just prior to daybreak with coastal areas remaining at VFR to MVFR. Conditions will quickly return to areawide VFR by mid morning. Winds will remain light out of the south becoming light and variable overnight. BB-8 && .MARINE... Issued at 215 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow is expected through the forecast. Winds look to turn northerly and increase behind a cold front on Sunday into Sunday night. BB-8 && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 104 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Looking at fire weather concerns over the forecast area, with drought conditions, and dry fuels, a Moderate Risk of a Significant Fire Potential is in effect through the week. Winds remain light enough and afternoon relative humidity values a bit too moist to hoist a by the criteria Red Flag Watch/Warning at this time for the next few days. Still, playing this by ear. /16 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 82 61 83 64 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 79 63 79 65 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 77 65 77 66 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 87 55 87 56 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 86 57 86 61 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 85 56 85 59 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 85 57 86 56 / 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for ALZ051>060- 261>264. FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for FLZ201-203- 205. MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MSZ067-075- 076-078-079. GM...None. && $$  097 FXUS63 KIND 140719 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 319 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Active pattern this week with near daily chances for showers and storms. Friday likely to be the driest day of the week. - Scattered storms possible this afternoon and evening for Central and North Central Indiana, a few of which may be strong to severe. - Near record warm temperatures expected through Saturday with multiple days in the 80s and lows in the 60s. && .DISCUSSION (Today through Monday)... Issued at 319 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Through Tonight... Central Indiana remains firmly within the warm sector of an elongated area of low pressure stretching from Minnesota into the Central Plains. Southwesterly flow remains in place aloft with numerous waves of energy within the mid and upper levels bringing renewed chances for convection in Indiana. While the main storm track over the next 24 hours remains to the west and northwest, closer to the surface fronts and area of low pressure, this pattern does support scattered convection developing or tracking near Central Indiana. A very warm and humid environment with modest shear aloft will support at least a marginal threat for severe weather for the next several days as this same pattern persists. Current satelitte imagery and observations show an overnight MCS along a warm front in Wisconsin and Michigan while a dying area of showers and storms is located near St. Louis. CAMs guidance has a poor handle on the evolution of mesoscale features within this broad southwesterly flow regime within the warm sector; therefore forecast confidence on timing and placement of thunderstorm chances the next several days is fairly low. The greatest storm threat and timing will is all dependent on mesoscale and microscale boundaries which develop as these dying complexes of storms enter Central Indiana. This is a typical warm season set up where the forecast for the next 12 hours all depends on such small minute details which even CAMs struggle to resolve. Therefore, numerous forecast updates will likely occur as the convective set up for each day evolves. Based on current trends early this morning, it appears the southern end of the MCS pushing into Northern Illinois may clip portions of North Central Indiana within the 6am to 9am timeframe as the MCS backbuilds to the southwest under a strong southwesterly LLJ aloft. Elsewhere across Central Indiana, higher clouds will continue to overspread the region from dying storms to the west and the approaching storms to the northwest. Not concerned with severe storms this morning; however based on current soundings showing steep low level lapse rates, any shower has the capability to bring down higher gusts aloft in the 40-55 mph range. A lull in the precipitation chances is likely late morning through early afternoon across Central Indiana; however this is where there is lower confidence in the forecast. Will have to watch where leftover boundaries from this morning's convection set up as this will be where evening storms likely develop. Since Central Indiana is well within the warm sector away from synoptic level fronts, forcing along any leftover boundary will be fairly weak, keeping overall coverage of evening storms widely scattered. However, any storm does have the threat to be severe with all hazards on the table. 2000-3000 J/kg CAPE and 20-35 kts of shear will be enough to support a supercell threat along any of these boundaries. Current thinking is that along and north of I-70 will have the threat for these widely scattered storms 4PM to around 10PM. Will monitor how everything evolves through the day and provide forecast updates as confidence increases on exact locations of potential storm development and associated threats. Outside of storms, deep low level mixing within a warm and humid environment with continued warm air advection will result in near record high temperatures in the 80s today for Central Indiana. Wednesday through Saturday... The overall pattern remains relatively the same going into midweek as the elongated area of low pressure and fronts slowly shift closer to Indiana. With southwest flow continuing aloft, any upper impulse moving through the flow will have the potential to generate scattered convection in an unstable atmosphere. Convection generated by the front to the north could also impact North Central Indiana at times. Isolated strong to severe convection is possible given expected parameters. Temperatures on Wednesday depends on sky cover and rain coverage, but for now will go with upper 70s north to middle 80s south. No matter where convection forms, it will likely feel more like July than Mid April in this type of pattern with such high humidity levels. Wednesday night into Thursday, an upper trough moves into the area, providing better forcing for more widespread storms. The surface front could move into the area, but there is a good amount of uncertainty on timing of greatest coverage for storms Wednesday night into Thursday depending on when the front moves through and also associated smaller shortwaves, which guidance likely can't resolve at this time. While confidence is high in more widespread rain and storm chances, timing and overall extent of the severe threat is still uncertain. Brief upper ridging looks to move in on Friday, providing a dry and warm to hot day. A larger upper trough moves in on Saturday bringing a strong cold front through the area. This will result in another round of showers and thunderstorms, some possibly strong to severe once again. Sunday and Monday... A brief cool down expected for the region latter half of the weekend and into early next week. Longer range guidance continues to hint at upper troughing developing over SE Canada and the NE CONUS going into early next week, allowing for cooler airmasses from Canada to drop southward behind Saturday's front. Still uncertainty on the overall location and track of the incoming high pressure, but confidence remains high in a few days of much cooler weather and the potential for a few frosty mornings in the 30s. Highs will be below normal, with the coldest readings Sunday in the 50s. Lows in the middle to upper 30s may occur Saturday night and Sunday night. Frost potnetial is certainly there but confidence is only marginal at this time as the placement of the high pressure will ultimately determine if optimal conditions for radiational cooling and frost occur over Central Indiana or elsewhere within the Ohio Valley. && .AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 146 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Impacts: - Wind gusts up to 25 to 35kts likely through the period - Scattered convection may impact sites 13-16z then again 21z-03z. Discussion: Satellite imagery and observations show Central Indiana firmly within the warm sector of an elongated area of low pressure in the Central Plains. Low level south-southwesterly flow will continue through the period with gusts of 25-35 kts to continue. Latest IND ACARs sounding still shows a well mixed boundary layer under an inversion at almost 2km agl. This is a fairly deep mixed layer for the overnight hours. With a strengthening nocturnal low level jet overhead, expect these stronger gusts at or above 35 kts to persist into the mid to late morning hours, diminishing some into the 20-25 kt range by the afternoon as the LLJ weakens. Lower confidence forecast regarding convection in this type of pattern as short term hi-res guidance struggles to handle these overnight storm complexes. Watching a complex in both Missouri and Wisconsin which could impact Central Indiana in the 12-16z timeframe. The Missouri complex should weaken as it tracks east, however there's a good possibility that the complex of storms entering Northern Illinois clips portions of Central Indiana later this morning as the atmosphere is conducive for convective maintenance into the area. Best threat for any morning storms would be at KLAF and KIND and points northeast. Confidence is only marginal in this threat, but high enough to include a Prob30 group for showers. Leftover boundaries later this afternoon within a very unstable and moist airmass should result in some afternoon convective development within Central Indiana, mostly likely along and north of I-70 in the 21z-03z timeframe. These storms would have the potential to be severe if they get going. Low confidence in finer details in this pattern. Will be able to determine where the highest threat is later this afternoon once boundaries for storms actually develop. Even when storms do develop, they may be widely scattered, but still think the threat is high enough to include a Prob30 group for storms this evening for the sites along and north of I-70. Cigs and vis should remain VFR for the most part today, with brief periods of MVFR or worse conditions under any shower or thunderstorm. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Within the setup described in the discussion above, near record temperatures are possible at times this week, mainly Tuesday, and Friday. Whether readings get close depends on sky cover and any rain staying away, which keeps confidence lower at this time. Current deterministic model runs are cooler than the records, but the potential exists to get within a few degrees if everything lines up. On Tuesday April 14, Indy's record high is 85, set in 1883. On Friday April 17, Indy's record high is 87, set in 1896. Record high minimum temperatures are also in play at times given the warm and relatively humid air mass. The first opportunity for this comes Monday, when the record high minimum at Indy is 63, set in 2014 and tied in 2018. At the moment, the forecast is for tying that number. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ AVIATION...CM DISCUSSION...CM CLIMATE...Ryan  427 FXUS64 KJAN 140720 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 220 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy fog development is possible this morning and tonight into Wednesday morning, especially south of Interstate 20. - There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms on Thursday, but chances for more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity across the area increase for Saturday into Saturday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 216 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Through This Morning: Moisture return to the region, in conjunction with radiational cooling overnight is creating a fog along the Mississippi and Alabama Gulf Coasts early this morning. HREF probabilities signal the possibility for at least patchy radiation/advection fog to spread up to around the Interstate 20 corridor by sunrise today. For now will highlight the potential for fog with a "Limited" fog threat graphic through the morning hours and monitor for any widespread dense fog development. Today through Monday: Given the returning humidity, will also let the current graphic for hazardous fire weather conditions expire. Dead fuel moisture values are above 15 percent at RAWS sites in the region, and vegetative greenup is underway. That said, cumulative drought stress means that caution should be exercised with dry vegetation on breezy days. Fog development is expected again late tonight into Wednesday morning - again spreading from the Gulf Coast into at least central Mississippi with advection/radiation effects. A dominant surface high and upper-level ridge over the Southeast US will blunt the chance for an approaching cold front to make its way too far south into our area on Thursday, but greater moisture and convergence in the frontal zone will support a 20-40% chance for showers and thunderstorms during the day on Thursday for areas mainly north of Interstate 20. A re-strengthening of the ridge will bring dry conditions back to the forecast, and high temperatures on Friday will even flirt with 90 degrees for most locations in our forecast area. An amplifying upper-level pattern will bring a trough and cooler surface air into the High Plains by Friday night into Saturday. The resulting low pressure system will still be far to our north around the Great Lakes, but a stronger cold front should push through our area Saturday night into Sunday. Expect increased moisture ahead of the frontal passage, with the best chance (60%) of the next 7 days for showers and thunderstorms to impact the area. The surface high behind this system will be fairly strong for mid-April. 1025+ mb is about 1 to 2 standard deviations above normal across the Mid-South. Cooler weather is expected (and dry) in the wake of this frontal passage. Widespread low temperatures in the 40s are achievable Sunday night into Monday. /NF/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions prevail early this morning. Another round of fog or low stratus is possible across southeast MS mainly around daybreak, with categorical reductions possible. VFR conditions should return by mid-morning. Otherwise, southerly winds may be gusty at times during the daylight hours. Another round of fog or low clouds is possible Wed morning. /DL/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 85 61 85 64 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 85 57 85 61 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 87 61 85 64 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 86 60 86 62 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 86 62 85 64 / 0 0 10 0 Greenville 87 65 85 66 / 0 0 0 10 Greenwood 87 63 85 66 / 0 0 0 10 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ NF/DL  521 FXUS65 KLKN 140720 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1220 AM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Strong cold front moves in from the northwest Wednesday night. Gusty winds and snowfall will produce minor travel impacts, primarily across northern Nevada. * Generally fair weather in place Friday thru Sunday * Next weather system moves in during the Monday timeframe && .UPDATE... Issued at 1214 AM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Current forecast is tracking well at this time and no updates are planned. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Sunday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Fairer weather in place tonight and Tuesday as the forecast area resides in between weather producers. Afternoon instability type showers expected over the high terrain of Elko and White Pine Counties Tuesday afternoon with westerly breezes present across northern Nevada, gusts around 25 mph. Overnight low temperatures will be in the 20s tonight with upper teens in the typical cold spots. Daytime highs Tuesday reside in the low 50s to low 60s. Increasing west-southwesterly winds Wednesday as the upper level trof and attendant surface cold front approach from the northwest. Front begins to move in to he forecast area Wednesday night, exiting to the southeast Thursday night. A band of light to moderate snow will be embedded along the front as it traverses the forecast area. Greatest snowfall amounts look to be situated over northern Elko County, west of US-93. 3 to 6 inches are currently forecast. A skiff to 3 inches are generally expected elsewhere. Dry weather expected Friday with northwesterly breezes present as a progressive upper level ridge begins to move into the western U.S. Generally fair weather defined by warming temperatures and afternoon breezes will be present thru the weekend. Numerical model solutions depict a deep upper level trof and cold front to move into the forecast area Monday. This looks to bring additional rain and snow in the region along with gusty southwest winds. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High forecast confidence thru this weekend with moderate confidence pertaining to another frontal passage next week Monday. Minimal deviation form the NBM. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected at all terminals today. Main concern will be westerly afternoon breezes across northern terminals KWMC, KBAM, KEKO, and KENV. Gusts look to be around 20KT. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...92 AVIATION...96  822 FXUS61 KOKX 140722 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 322 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The Small Craft Advisory on the ocean has been extended thru the day from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Well above normal temperatures thru Friday. 2) Some showers and thunderstorms possible thru the period, but the best chances look to be north of the area. 2) Strong cold front Sunday with temperatures returning to near to slightly below normal Sunday night and Monday. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... The fcst remains on track for warm wx this week. The NBM was generally followed, although temps along the coasts of NY and CT were adjusted upwards today and Wed closer to the MAV and MET. It looks like the numbers may be weighted a little to heavily on the 2M model data in those spots. Similar adjustments may need to be made for both Thu and Fri. A lack of strong wly flow limits confidence in these areas torching out, but adjusting towards the MOS seemed fairly safe given the warm airmass building in. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Some shwrs and tstms possible thru the week with the area warm sectored. The main convergence zone however looks to remain N and W of the cwa. In this scenario, would expected initiation to generally occur outside of the cwa, then bleed into the area on storm flow or convectively induced boundaries, especially across the interior, for the late aftn and eve hours before completely falling apart. A shrtwv near the end of the week could provide a better focus for both initiation and intensity, but the timing will need to work out to allow for some instability to work with. Although the 00Z GFS has this feature passing thru during the day on Fri, the quicker AI-GFS produces practically nothing with an early mrng passage. Stuck with the NBM for pops and wx throughout the fcst. .KEY MESSAGE 3... A strong cold front is forecast to move through the region during Sunday, while there are still some timing difference, consenus is for a cold frontal passage Sunday afternoon. Showers will accompany the passage, with a chance of thunder as well. After a prolonged period of above normal temperatures, the cold front passage will return temperatures to near to slightly below normal Sunday night through Monday night. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Offshore high pressure to the south will remain in place. Weak low pressure will pass across upstate New York and New England late this afternoon into this evening, bringing a front closer to the Hudson Valley terminals. Mostly VFR, though have to watch for TEMPO IFR vsby around sunrise from about 10Z-13Z especially across CT/Long Island. A late afternoon tstm possible at KSWF with brief MVFR vsby reduction. Mostly light SW winds will become more southerly today and increase to 10-15kt with gusts 20-25 kt from the NYC metros north/west and 15- 20kt elsewhere. Winds become more SW-W and diminish to 10 kt or less tonight. LLWS possible at KGON/KISP tonight, with WSW flow 35-40 kt at FL020. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Some fog possible from 10Z-13Z. MVFR to IFR possible. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... Late tonight: Mainly VFR. Some patchy fog possible late. Wednesday through Saturday: Mainly VFR, with chance of afternoon and evening showers/tstms each day, mainly NW of the NYC metros, with brief flight cat reduction to MVFR. SW winds could gust 15-20kt each afternoon Wed-Thu as well. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... The SCA for seas was extended thru the day on the ern 2/3 of the ocean, although it could be canceled a bit early if seas subside quick enough this aftn. Elsewhere, winds will be blw SCA lvls. Winds thru the Thu are expected to remain blw SCA lvls on all waters, but seas on the ocean will hover around 4ft, with 5ft waves possible at times. Despite a cold frontal passage on Fri, winds and waves are still expected to remain blw SCA lvls Fri and Sat attm. && .CLIMATE... Daily record high temperatures that could be reached: Wed, April 15: KEWR: 88/1960 KBDR: 81/1960 KNYC: 87/1941 KLGA: 86/1941 KJFK: 80/2006 KISP: 78/2024 Daily record high minimum temperatures that could be reached: Tue, April 14: KEWR: 62/2014 KBDR: 54/2023 KNYC: 70/2023 KLGA: 67/2023 KJFK: 55/2023 KISP: 54/2022 Wed, April 15: KEWR: 60/2023 KBDR: 53/2012 KNYC: 67/1941 KLGA: 64/1941 KJFK: 58/1960 KISP: 56/2023 Thu, April 16: KEWR: 64/2002 KBDR: 53/2002 KNYC: 69/2002 KLGA: 68/2002 KJFK: 57/2002 KISP: 55/2012 Fri, April 17: KEWR: 68/2002 KBDR: 57/2002 KNYC: 74/2002 KLGA: 73/2002 KJFK: 60/2002 KISP: 61/2002 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350- 353. && $$  244 FXUS63 KIWX 140722 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 322 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A complex of showers and thunderstorms will shift southeast across the southern Great Lakes this morning bringing a potential of some gusty winds and brief heavy rain. Some uncertainty persists with how far southeast this band of showers and thunderstorms will survive this morning. - Isolated storms are possible this afternoon, especially across northwest into portions of north central IN. However great chances of thunderstorms will be this evening into the early morning hours Wednesday. There is a Slight Risk of severe storms tonight with damaging wind gusts to 60 mph and hail to 1 to 2 inches in diameter as primary threats. An isolated tornado is possible, but of lower confidence. - Locally heavy rainfall is possible tonight into Wednesday which may result in some renewed areal and river flooding concerns. - Above normal temperatures will continue into this first part of weekend before a cold front brings below normal temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 322 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A complicated forecast over the next 72 hours with several rounds of convection possible. Severe weather is possible each day through Thursday, with greatest confidence in scattered severe storms tonight. A convective complex is ongoing this morning across Wisconsin to the Lake Michigan vicinity with an associated outflow boundary extending from northeast Iowa to far southeast Wisconsin. This convective system has shown signs of both downwind propagation (eastward across east central Wisconsin) and upwind propagation (southeastward across south central Wisconsin). A strong low level jet feeding into this boundary should help sustain additional convection and southeast push of the outflow to southern Lake Michigan this morning. The tendency over next few hours may be for increasing trend in stronger cores to be displaced further behind outflow boundary due to some stronger downstream MLCIN across the southern Great Lakes. May need to watch for potential of isolated severe gust across primarily southern Lower Michigan this morning where more of a forward propagation may be favored, but a higher confidence potential does exist across NW IN/southern Lower MI for some 40+ mph wind gusts this morning. There have been some instances of small scale circulations developing at leading edge of the line across SE Wisconsin in QLCS type setup. If forward propagating system can reach southern Lower Michigan this morning cannot completely rule out similar evolution where westerly 30-35 knot 0-3 km shear vector has a more favorable orientation, but more limited instability with southward extent and more likely more parallel orientation of shear vectors to line through time may limit this potential. Another thing to monitor for today could be possibility of some small scale convectively enhanced short wave kicking northeast out of eastern Missouri this morning which could interact with the southward dropping outflow boundary across northeast or east central Illinois. Timing of this interaction would probably be late morning/midday period in unfavorable timing in terms of peak diurnal instability, but may need to watch for some uptick in convection across far west/southwest late morning given steep mid level lapse rates in place. Overall forecast thinking has not changed greatly for the primary severe weather threat period tonight. The outflow boundary will likely stall from NE Illinois into portions of IWX forecast area this morning, with instability recovery likely by late afternoon as this instability gradient is advected back northward via stronger low/mid level flow associated with convectively enhanced short waves to the southwest. Some isolated stronger storms are possible in vicinity of this instability gradient as it lifts north, but the possibility exists for weak CIN to hold. By this evening low level flow will back some to the southwest in response to a progressive wave across working across the Upper Midwest. This should yield a pocket of strong 925-850 mb moisture convergence from eastern IA into southern WI this evening which looks prime for convection initiation. Some lower confidence still persists in how convection will evolve tonight, whether a coherent cold pool and southeast propagating convective system occurs, or if storms remain just slightly elevated north of the composite boundary. Supercell wind profiles will likely be in place again by this evening as a stronger mid level jet lifts across northeast IL late afternoon with a wind/hail threat. Best combination of shear/instability still looks possible across NW IN/SW Lower MI where all severe hazards would appear more likely, although helicity profiles more favorable for tornadoes may be displaced west across northern IL where shear may be augmented by the low/mid level jet. As mentioned, still uncertainty with details in convective mode tonight, but overall key themes from previous forecast remain intact. Some heavy rain potential may materialize later tonight as potential outflow with southern Great Lakes storms could become more favorably oriented parallel to veering low level westerly flow. It is difficult to get into too much detail regarding severe potential for Wed/Thu as this be highly dependent on previous day's convective evolution and hard to resolve smaller individual smaller scale waves in this pattern. This situation is a complex one as stubbornness of longwave ridging to break down across eastern CONUS results in multiple upstream short waves shearing out as they encounter this ridge, and also an added increased susceptibility to convectively enhanced short waves from southern Plains/lower MS Valley. Instability profiles will likely be more limited for Wednesday and Thursday, although at least Wednesday should still feature respectable wind shear profiles that could allow for at least an isolated severe threat. Some small increase in instability is possible Thursday as upper ridge finally appears to be broken down by stronger mid level wave, but shear profiles may become a bit more marginal by this time. The extended period of above normal temperatures will continue through the first part of the weekend. Medium range guidance is starting to come into a little better agreement in timing frontal passage with next more substantial longwave trough for first part of the weekend. Much too early for details, but some strong/severe threat could accompany frontal convection Saturday depending on timing. May also need to watch for periods of strong synoptic winds this weekend in both pre-frontal and post-frontal environments. Cooler, below normal temperatures should build in for second half of weekend into next Monday, but residence time of this cooler air looks to be limited. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1219 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The mid level disturbance and zone of stronger advective forcing responsible for last evenings convective cluster is now drifting across the eastern Great Lakes where some isolated showers exist. Attention is now turning upstream to a more organized convective complex from northeast Iowa into east central Wisconsin. This thunderstorm complex is exhibiting both upwind and downwind propagation with better upwind development and southward propagation becoming more defined over past hour or two across southwest Wisconsin into northeast Iowa. This tendency for southeast propagation into better instability axis/low level inflow should continue overnight, although more vigorous convective elements may remain across northern Illinois based on instability profiles. Nonetheless, would expect some outflow winds and some showers and isolated storms to spread southeast into northern Indiana after 10Z or 11Z this morning with a potential of some wind gusts up to 40 knots. Longevity of this feature is a little unclear in terms of KFWA with some surface based inhibition probably weakening these storms with southeast extent. A remnant outflow boundary from these storms could trigger additional thunderstorms this afternoon, but greater coverage/more organized thunderstorm development is not expected until later Tuesday evening. A period of MVFR cigs will likely accompany the outflow boundary this morning, with improvements to VFR this afternoon. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for LMZ043- 046. && $$ DISCUSSION...Marsili AVIATION...Marsili  157 FXUS65 KPUB 140722 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 122 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Critical fire weather conditions across the plains today, with rain and snow showers over the mountains - After a break Wednesday, critical fire weather conditions return to much of the region on Thursday and potentially Friday - New storm system arrives Fri/Sat bringing a chance for rain and mountain snow, along with widespread below freezing temperatures possible Saturday and Sunday mornings && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1234 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Upper level low over nrn AZ this morning, with widespread rain and snow showers over the wrn half of Colorado ahead of the system. Web cams show snow over Wolf Creek and Monarch Passes as of 1 am, though roads so far look mostly wet to slushy in spots. With snow showers persisting into the morning, won't be too surprised if passes along the Continental Divide eventually see some slushy/icy roads by sunrise, especially Highway 160 from South Fork up to Wolf Creek. Mountains and valleys east of the Continental Divide will see scattered rain/snow showers through sunrise, though precip here will be fairly spotty and light. Upper low forecast to move across Colorado and weaken today and tonight, with rain/snow showers continuing across the mountains and valleys through the day. Could even be a brief thunderstorm over mainly the higher terrain as lapse rates steepen under the upper low/trough. Accumulating snow looks limited to the higher peaks, especially along the Continental Divide, where storm totals of 3-6 inches are possible by this evening. Along I-25 and across the plains, strong west winds develop late this morning, continuing into the afternoon, as upper jet moves overhead and surface low spins up near the KS border. Expect gusts of 35-45 mph to be common from the Sangres eastward, perhaps a few 50 plus mph gusts in the enhanced gap flow region near Walsenburg. Red Flag Warning will remain in effect for the plains/I-25 for much of the day, as humidity will fall toward 10 percent in the afternoon. Windy across the Sangres and San Luis Valley/Upper Arkansas Valley as well, but relative humidity here will be much higher, tempering fire danger somewhat. Tonight, cold front sweeps through the plains in the evening, ending the critical fire weather threat as humidity increases substantially behind the front. Window for showers along I-25 is fairly small, limited to areas near the Palmer Divide/El Paso County during the evening, with a least a threat of a brief mix or period of snow under any heavier showers near the top of the Divide as snow levels fall toward 7k feet. Shower chances diminish quickly farther south, as best dynamic lift stays north. Precip ends quickly after midnight as low weakens and shifts east, with just a few sprinkles/flurries left by sunrise. On Wednesday, dry, breezy and slightly cooler conditions expected, with a few pockets of elevated fire danger through Fremont County as gap winds increase during the afternoon. Haven't issued a highlight here yet, as duration and areal extent of any critical conditions looks limited. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 1234 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 High fire danger returns to the area on Thursday, as southwest flow aloft strengthens ahead of next upper trough digging into the wrn U.S. Have issued a Fire Weather Watch for most of the region for Thu afternoon/evening, as vast majority of model and statistical guidance suggest wind gusts in the 30-45 mph range over the entire area. Trough then swings through the central Rockies Fri, quickly shifting into the plains on Sat. While system will be colder than the past few, trend in model/ensembles has been for a more northern track, keeping best lift and precip over the nrn half of Colorado, with lighter amounts south. Ahead of the system, may still see some critical fire weather conditions on the plains Fri ahead of the cold front, though frontal timing has slightly accelerated, with boundary near the NM border by late Fri afternoon in some of the 00z deterministic guidance. Still too early for any highlights, but expect another potentially active fire weather day for at least portions of the region. Best window for precip looks to be Fri afternoon/evening, mainly over the mountains, with trend toward a quicker trough ending precip by early Sat. Still looking at the potential for widespread below freezing temps Sat and Sun mornings, with readings in the teens and 20s possible mountains and high valleys, mainly 20s on the plains. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1108 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. Strong southwest flow aloft is over the region and will remain over the region during this period. Gusty southwest winds will crank up after 15 UTC tomorrow and will be quite strong during the afternoon; 30-40 knts from the southwest. Winds will gradually go to northwest late in the afternoon then north-northwest during the evening then decrease. There is a very low chance of a passing shower tomorrow, especially at KCOS and KALS. There may be some brief periods of haze due to some possible blowing dust due to the strong southwest winds. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for COZ220>222-224>237. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ227>237. && $$ SHORT TERM...PETERSEN LONG TERM...PETERSEN AVIATION...HODANISH  024 FXUS66 KMTR 140725 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1225 AM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1216 AM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Slightly cooler to near normal temperatures continue through Thursday - Periods of gusty winds, especially at higher elevations Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning - Warmer temperatures return Friday and Saturday - Confidence is increasing for widespread beneficial rain beginning Sunday into the beginning of next week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1216 AM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 (Today and tonight) The upper level low that brought beneficial rainfall the past few days has exited east with lingering low clouds overnight from the SF Peninsula south into Monterey and the Salinas Valley, and farther inland over the interior mountains of San Benito County. Low clouds will linger across the Bay Area and Central Coast through mid- morning today as a drier mid-level airmass filters in across our area under shortwave ridging aloft, with mostly sunny skies in the afternoon into the evening hours. High temperatures will begin their gradual increase through midweek today, with only slight increases from Mondays highs. Tonight into Wednesday morning will still be on the chilly side of normal with mostly clear skies, relatively light winds, and more efficient radiational cooling. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1216 AM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 (Wednesday through Monday) Temperatures on Wednesday will be similar or slightly higher on the backside of the progressive shortwave ridging. By Wednesday afternoon, onshore flow will increase out ahead of a sharpening trough that will bring gusty winds and a slight chance of rain across northern portions of the North Bay. The better fetch of onshore flow out ahead of the upper trough and associated surface boundary will be short lived but will produce more widespread cloud cover during the day and evening hours. Onshore flow will quickly transition to north/northeast offshore flow overnight into Thursday in the wake of the progressive upper trough. The gusty winds during the day Thursday, especially above 1000ft are not expected to exceed 40 MPH with little impacts. Winds ease Friday, while a still progressive but high amplitude ridge moves onshore producing a more notable jump in temperatures Friday and Saturday to slightly above normal for most locations. The active, progressive longwave pattern continues by the end of the weekend into the beginning of next week with an increasing signal for another round of widespread beneficial rainfall. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 935 PM PDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A deep marine layer is trying to reform as the atmosphere re-stabilizes. The most likely impacts will be patchy MVFR stratus at coastal terminals, although there is a decent chance for brief impacts at inland terminals as well. There is very little chance of IFR conditions, however. Vicinity of SFO...Strong onshore wind will continue through the night and through the remainder of the TAF period. There is a 20-30% chance of MVFR ceilings between 12Z and 18Z Tuesday morning before skies clear in the late morning. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR ceilings rolled in earlier than expected at MRY, and will very likely remain through mid morning at least. The bigger question is if and when they reach SNS. The most likely window is from 10Z to 17Z, before the cloud deck starts to mix out. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 935 PM PDT Mon Apr 13 2026 The gradient between high pressure in the East Pacific and lower pressure over California will support a moderate to fresh NW breeze and moderate seas across the exposed coastal waters through Wednesday. A cold front will increase winds to near gale force late Wednesday or early Thursday, building rough seas. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT early this morning for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM....JM AVIATION...Flynn MARINE...Flynn Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  970 FXUS61 KCLE 140725 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 325 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Confidence in the placement and timing of severe weather potential today remains low relatively low. There's a possibility of an initial round of storms later this morning into early this afternoon and any evening/overnight convection will rely on how things pan out during the day. There is also increasing concern for stronger storms and flooding Wednesday into Thursday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Multiple rounds of storms likely today through Thursday. Storms may be strong to severe at times, best chance this evening into tonight and on Wednesday afternoon/evening. 2) Multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rain may result in flooding, especially on Wednesday. 3) Above normal temperatures expected through Saturday with cooler temperatures returning towards the end of the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Unsettled weather with periodic showers and thunderstorm complexes are expected through Thursday as a frontal boundary wavers to the north of the local area and a series of shortwaves move across the boundary. Given the lack of forcing with the best upper level support to the north of the area, convection over the next couple of days will rely on mesoscale features and the resulting confidence in timing, placement, and strengths of storms remains low at this time. Round 1 (Early Today): The actual first round of storms has exited the area, however the upstream convection over southern Wisconsin and Michigan will need to be monitored through this morning. It's possible that the overnight convection has left some lingering boundaries across the area so will need to keep an eye on the potential for enhanced convergence as this weakening convection moves in. It's possible that the atmosphere is still stabilized due to lingering cloud cover and a mid- level cap, but some elevated instability remains in place. Either way, will need to keep an eye on the potential for elevated storms that could produce gusty winds and hail this morning into this afternoon. Round 2 (This Evening/Tonight): The severe weather potential later this afternoon into tonight will depend on how the early- day convection pans out. Early-day convection may help stabilize things later this evening. On the other hand, the convection could leave behind boundaries and a source for convergence for evening convection maintenance and growth. Additional convection will move in from the northwest this evening into tonight, although there is some potential for scattered showers and storms developing out ahead of the main line of convection at some point early to mid evening. There's quite a bit of disagreement in the forecast amongst CAMs, but overall confidence in the potential for precipitation in general is high for tonight. Despite the unfavorable diurnal timing, relatively high shear values due to a 50 knot LLJ moving into the northern portion of the CWA and deep moisture will result in a favorable environment for thunderstorm maintenance. With this round, damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazard but large hail and a few tornadoes cannot be ruled out given the wind field and lapse rates. Generally expect a weakening trend as the storms move into the area overnight. If stability stays in place, it may be more of a heavy rain scenario (see Key Message 2). There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) of severe weather across northern Ohio with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) over the remainder of the local area. Round 3 (Wednesday): The air mass will change very little on Wednesday and if anything, moisture will increase and forcing may increase slightly as the aforementioned frontal boundary sags a bit further south. Moist and deep west/southwest flow will likely produce sufficient destabilization for scattered showers and storms on Wednesday and CAMs suggest that yet another complex of storms will traverse east across the local area Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. As with previous days, damaging wind gusts and hail will be possible in these storms, although the severe weather threat will depend on mesoscale features that have not yet been resolved. There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) of severe weather across interior NE OH and NW PA with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) elsewhere. Round 4 (Thursday): Additional showers and storms are possible as a cold front pushes east across the local area Thursday into early Friday. Instability may be a bit lower during this timeframe, but the upper level support will allow for potential for organized convection ahead of or along the cold front. There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather on Thursday. A brief break in convection is expected on Friday, but showers and storm chances return on Saturday as a cold front approaches and moves east across the region. Will need to keep an eye on potential for organized storms on Saturday in the upcoming days. KEY MESSAGE 2... Moderate to heavy rainfall rates will accompany thunderstorms through Thursday. The deep, moist west/southwest flow will produce precipitable water values between 1.2 and 1.5 inches (possibly higher at times) through early Thursday. To add some context for how unseasonably high these PWATs are, the 90th percentile for PWATs at surrounding upper air sounding sites for mid-April are generally under an inch with daily maxima of up to about 1.25 inches. Storms should be relatively progressive today into tonight, although the efficient rainfall rates and multiple opportunities for storms could cause some rises on rivers/creeks/streams and cause some minor flooding issues in urban/poor drainage areas. Any precipitation today and tonight will help prime waterways and soils for additional precipitation on Wednesday. As of early this morning, 1-hr FFG values across the area are generally up to 1.5 inches (with locally higher values up to 2 inches) with 3-hr FFG values of generally 1.75-3 inches. Expect these values to decrease with any heavier rainfall this evening/tonight. There's also some potential for backbuilding/training Wednesday into Wednesday night, which would increase flooding concerns for localized areas. Confidence in QPF (especially axes of higher QPF values) is low and will depend on where storms occur, but several CAMs have at least 1 to 2 inches of QPF across portions of the area through early Thursday with locally higher amounts possible where repeated rounds of rain occur. KEY MESSAGE 3... Persistent warm air advection will result in well above normal temperatures through Saturday. Instead of normal lower 60s for highs, highs will be in the 70s with lower 80s possible in areas that clear out a bit today and Wednesday. Cooler temperatures may materialize with persistent cloud cover and precipitation. It will be quite muggy thanks to dew points in the lower 60s. Temperatures will temporarily moderate to below normal values in the 50s Sunday and Monday, but guidance favors a warming trend by the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/... Conditions have improved to VFR behind showers and thunderstorms from earlier this evening. Active stretch of weather expected through the TAF period with multiple possible rounds of thunderstorms, some strong to severe possible. The first round of thunderstorms will enter from the northwest this afternoon around 15Z/Tue and push southeast across terminals through ~19-20Z/Tue. Have timed out impacts to terminals with the initial round of convection using TEMPO groups. The development on the next round of thunderstorms may hinge on what occurs this afternoon. As of right now, these thunderstorms will develop along and east of CLE around 03Z/Wed with a stronger area of thunderstorms pushing southward across Lake Erie starting at ~04-06Z/Wed. For the TAF, opted for a PROB30 group at TOL/FDY and the 30-hour CLE TAF for the evening/overnight possible convection. Strong to damaging wind gusts and IFR/MVFR reductions to cigs/vis will be possible in any stronger thunderstorm that moves over a terminal in this timeframe. Elevated southwesterly winds 12-18 knots with gusts 20-30 knots will remain in place through this evening. Highest wind gusts will occur this afternoon and in any convection. Winds shift southerly tonight and diminish to 10 knots or less through the overnight hours. Outlook...Periods of non-VFR conditions are expected in showers and thunderstorms through Thursday. && .MARINE... Southerly to southwesterly winds remain elevated between 15-20 knots through today. Given the offshore component, the highest wave heights will remain across the open waters of Lake Erie. Southerly to southwesterly winds 12-18 knots will remain across the lake through the end of the week as multiple systems move through the region. Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances will be present through Thursday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...15 AVIATION...13 MARINE...13  845 FXUS66 KEKA 140726 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 1226 AM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Chilly temperatures this morning for the interior. Rain likely returns by Tuesday night into Wednesday, especially for the North Coast. Near freezing to freezing low temperatures expected to return late week. More rain possible over the weekend. && .DISCUSSION...Chilly temperatures have set in for the interior areas, with near-freezing temperatures possible in the coldest valleys. A frost advisory has been issued for northern Mendocino and Lake Counties. Satellite imagery and fire watch cameras show that inner valleys have some fog developing, trapping heat and keeping temperatures above the values needed for frost. When daytime comes around, dry weather is forecasted with pleasant temperatures for the inner valleys. Tuesday night through Wednesday, an upper level trof moving into the interior PacNW will extend southward, leading to windy and rainy conditions for NW CA. Breezy southerly winds up to 30mph are possible for Del Norte and Humboldt counties. Rainfall amounts have continued to trend upwards in the models for this storm system. The current NBM is showing rainfall amounts around 1.00" for Crescent City and Del Norte. The northern area of the CWA will receive the most rain as the front rapidly moves southward and weakens. Rainfall will be light with periods of moderate intensity for the Humboldt Bay area. Lighter rain intensity and totals are forecasted for Trinity and northern Mendocino counties. Less than a tenth of an inch is expected in southern Mendocino and Lake counties. As per usual, the mountain areas will have more rain than the surrounding valleys. The bulk of the colder air for this system is forecasted to be more in southern OR and NE CA. This means that snow levels are still expected to be ~5,000 feet for most of the precip, but may drop below 3,000 feet as the precip comes to an end Wednesday evening. As the frontal system continues southward, breezy west winds in excess of 30 mph are possible Wednesday evening in Lake County. Wednesday night into Thursday morning shows cold air moving over the area lowering snow levels down to 2,000 ft, leading to cold temperatures. The NBM is showing lows in the 20s in northern Lake, northeast Mendocino, and much of Trinity county. While this is certainly possible, fog and low clouds from the added moisture may develop in some of the valleys, limiting the radiational cooling. Thursday afternoon, clear skies and dry conditions are expected with a slight warming trend. This will likely set up Thursday night to be the coldest night as even the coast may see frost. Global models show another frontal system passing on Saturday night through Monday. At this point, model rainfall totals have risen slightly. The probability of rain totals over 0.5" for The weekend is over 75% for Del Norte. Humboldt and Trinity county has around a 50-70% chance for over 0.5", while the southern half has around a 20- 50% chance. Chances for over an inch in 48 hours are around 50% in the mountains of Del Norte and the King Range. Details of this system will continue to become clearer over the coming days. && .AVIATION...(06Z TAFs)...Terrain induced cumulus has dissipated as previous TAF discussions predicted. Light rain at KCEC by noon has low chance but still exists as moisture continues to sweep into the area and likely to clip Del Norte and produce precip for KACV as well KUKI at a lesser amount in the thousandths. Tuesday late night into Wednesday will likely produce decent rain amounts with reduced visibility and ceilings around 5000ft, keeping VFR categories despite steady showers. Saturday and into Sunday looks to be wet as well which cold set up ground fog development next week if the cloud cover is minimal. /EYS && .MARINE...Northerlies have increased today with the pressure gradient tightening behind a departing frontal system at the same time as high pressure builds off the coast. This has resulted in some small craft conditions in the southern water zones today that will persist into tonight. Winds will decrease on Tuesday as the front/trough continues to move inland and the next storm system approaches the Pacific Northwest. Winds will briefly turn out of the south starting Tuesday into Tuesday night ahead of the next frontal passage. A few areas in the north could see nearly small craft conditions ahead of the front. However, winds will sharply turn back out of the north as the front passes through the waters on Wednesday with small craft and possibly gale conditions developing Wednesday night into Thursday and Thursday night. /RPA && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... Frost Advisory until 8 AM PDT this morning for CAZ110-111- 114-115. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT early this morning for PZZ455-475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png  642 FXUS65 KBYZ 140728 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 128 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Localized fog this morning east of Billings. - Stronger and colder storm system late Wednesday into Friday. Widespread rain potentially transitioning to snow over the lower elevations late Thursday. Potential for periods of moderate to heavy snow in the mountains. - Warmer and Dry this Weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Through Monday... As Yesterday's storm system continues to slowly push out of the region, widespread westerly winds are forecast to become dominant. This is the main reason that there is minimal concern for any fog development this morning, however, locations farther away from the downslope impacts of the mountains may see some patchy fog. This includes the river valleys as well as locations near the Dakotas. If any fog were to form it would likely be patchy in nature. After this morning, our attention turns to the potential for an impactful storm mid to late week. Deterministic models are now starting to show more of a split flow event keeping some of the energy up into SK and digging some of the energy down into CO. Some of the latest ensembles are also depicting a split of the energy as well, albeit more modest. This flow would likely result in lee-side cyclogenesis farther south along the front range which will in turn bring the greatest forcing off to our south. The specifics of how far south the trough digs will make a huge difference for some locations snowfall totals. The greatest discrepancies are in the mountains and the foothills on the NE and East sides of the ranges. Previous model runs that show more of a single upper level low dive into WY were showing 2' totals in some locations of the Beartooth/Absarokas whereas these models have recently trended closer to a 12-18". We still are 36 hours out from knowing exactly where this system will end up, however, the trends are for less precipitation. It is worth noting though that some ensemble members are still showing large snow totals in all of the mountains. Even if the main energy ends up having less impacts on our area, this does not mean that we will completely miss out on all precip. The surface low pressure that forms along the MT/AB border will push through NE MT and have a trailing cold front along with it. This brings chances for precipitation to places near and West of Billings as soon as midday Wednesday and the entire CWA by Wednesday evening. While most of the area will start out as rain with snow levels around 6 kft, behind the FROPA the temperature cools rapidly. The exact timing of the cold front remains just as uncertain as the parent feature does but most models have it move through Billings by early afternoon Thursday. A transition to snow may occur as early as Thursday afternoon in Billings and Thursday evening in Sheridan and Miles City. As is common with these systems, the coldest air moves in just as the precip moves out meaning that minimal snowfall is expected for most locations. The exception to the minimal snowfall could be along the foothills near Red Lodge, MT and Story, WY. These locations precip totals will also be highly dependent on the actual track of the low. It does appear that regardless of the exact track that there will be at least a brief period of upslope enhancement into these areas. The timing, intensity, amount of moisture, and snowfall amounts are still very uncertain. The brief period associated with the cold front is looking more likely than the TROWAL with the main surface low advecting in moisture at this time. As of right now it looks like these upslope regions may only see 1" of snow behind the cold front that will have trouble accumulating on warm ground. On the flip side, the NBM 90th percentile is showing roughly 8" for these areas. In short there could be impactful snow or next to nothing. Along with the potential for accumulating snow in Sheridan Co, there may also be a brief period of near blizzard conditions associated with the strong push of winds along and just behind the front. Due to the strong CAA, cool temperatures are forecast to end the work week. While some areas in the plains may be able to push up to their average high temperature Thursday, locations west of the Bighorn River will be 5 to 10 F below average with highs in the 40s. Friday will see highs roughly 10 F below average across the region. Highs in the 40s will be widespread with localized upper 30s. The good news with this event is that regardless of p-type or exact rainfall totals, any additional precip is welcome to help with the drought across the CWA. After this event it looks like an active pattern will continue through the end of the month with repeated chances for precipitation. WMR .AVIATION... There is a slight chance (20 percent) for patchy fog over eastern Montana into this morning. Any fog that does develop will lift by mid-morning. Look for VFR conditions to prevail today for most locations. A few showers are possible over and near the southern mountains/foothills and VC KSHR this afternoon. Local MVFR and some mountain obscurations are possible with the showers. Winds will remain breezy at times along the western foothills through the period, from KLVM to K6S0 and KHWQ. STP && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 066 042/068 038/048 028/048 028/057 033/068 040/075 0/B 11/B 58/W 54/J 21/U 00/U 01/B LVM 062 038/060 030/039 021/042 023/053 029/063 037/069 1/N 05/W 99/J 66/J 30/U 00/U 11/N HDN 067 037/071 038/052 026/047 024/056 028/069 036/077 1/U 01/B 48/W 64/J 31/U 00/U 01/B MLS 066 040/070 040/053 025/042 022/051 027/065 038/074 0/U 00/B 34/W 32/J 11/U 00/U 00/U 4BQ 064 037/071 042/057 025/040 020/049 026/065 037/075 1/B 00/U 14/W 63/J 11/U 00/U 00/U BHK 065 037/068 038/057 023/039 019/046 024/060 033/069 1/U 00/U 12/W 52/J 11/U 00/U 00/U SHR 061 032/066 037/052 023/040 018/049 024/063 033/071 2/W 00/B 29/W 96/J 32/W 00/U 01/B && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Winter Storm Watch in effect from Wednesday evening through late Thursday night FOR ZONE 67. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings  612 FXUS64 KOUN 140732 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 232 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 221 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Strong to severe thunderstorms possible Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday. - Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will return several days this week, especially across portions of northwestern and far western Oklahoma. - Dry and cooler weather this weekend. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Tuesday) Issued at 221 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Drier air will again overspread parts of western and northern Oklahoma today, as a dryline mixes eastward. Naturally, models differ with the position of this feature. We will convert the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning for six counties across northwestern Oklahoma. This area will likely see humidity fall to around 20 percent by mid afternoon with strong wind gusts to 40 mph. There's also the potential for a few high-based showers across this area during the afternoon. Lightning is unlikely, but they could enhance wind gusts. Unlikely yesterday, there will be better upper-level support in the form a lead shortwave trough. This will bring better chances of thunderstorm development along and near a dryline by mid to late afternoon. There will likely be more mid to high clouds that arrive during the day which will limit insolation. Despite this, models suggest near surface instability of at least 2500 J/kg east of the dryline. Instability and deep layer shear is expected to be sufficient for supercell storms with a risk of very large hail and damaging winds. Thunderstorms that develop will move rather quickly to the northeast (30-40 mph) && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday night through Thursday night) Issued at 221 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Thunderstorms are expected to continue into at least the early to mid evening hours with a continued risk of severe weather, especially with any supercells. There should be a lull in thunderstorm develop from the late evening into parts of the overnight hours. However, the main upper trough will be approaching far West Texas Wednesday morning. Model guidance indicates showers and storms may develop by sunrise across portions of southern within an area of mid-level convergence. Confidence in this is not high, but certainly possible. Thunderstorm development during the day Wednesday should be earlier based on the position and movement of the upper trough. A more eastern position of a dryline, should limit severe chance across western Oklahoma and parts of western north Texas. However, central and eastern parts of Oklahoma may be impacted by another round of severe storms by early to mid afternoon. Most of the thunderstorms that form Wednesday afternoon should end by mid to late evening. Most of the day Thursday will be dry. However, near-critcal fire weather conditions may emerge across western Oklahoma and western north Texas Thursday afternoon. Afternoon highs are expected to warm into the upper 80s and lower 90s with afternoon humidity approaching 10-15 percent. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 221 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 On Friday, surface low pressure will deepen quickly, as an upper trough moves across the central and northern Rockies. How far east drier air will mix into far western Oklahoma during the afternoon is uncertain. However, there is the potential for a small area of near- critical to critical fire weather conditions across far western Oklahoma and northern Texas. The bigger story will be the potential for supercell storms to develop along and near a dryline during the afternoon and evening. Better forcing across the northern half of Oklahoma should favor better storm coverage. Still a lot of detail to be worked out, but Friday has the potential for rather impactful storms. Additional storms will likely form along a cold front which is expected to move across most of the area Friday evening and night. The front is expected to push well to our south and east on Saturday, so much of the upcoming weekend is expected to be dry with highs in the 60s to lower 70s. A southerly wind is expected to increase on Monday with most areas remaining dry. The exception may be a few showers across southern Oklahoma. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1104 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026 MVFR conditions are currently observed spreading north/west this evening. These conditions are anticipated to lift by mid-morning Monday. LLWS is a concern late tonight and again tomorrow night. Will be monitoring the marginal risk of severe storms that are possible tomorrow afternoon and evening. Thus far, there is significant uncertainty on storm development and have left out of TAFs for now. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 84 66 79 59 / 60 60 70 30 Hobart OK 88 63 85 53 / 50 60 50 20 Wichita Falls TX 85 67 83 59 / 60 70 60 20 Gage OK 89 56 83 48 / 20 20 20 10 Ponca City OK 87 66 80 56 / 50 50 70 40 Durant OK 82 67 78 64 / 30 50 80 60 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004-005-009-010-014-021. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...06 SHORT TERM...06 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...25  207 FXUS62 KMHX 140744 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 344 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Temperatures have trended warmer for Friday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Above to well above normal temperatures will prevail through the entire week with the potential for record breaking temperatures each day through Saturday. 2) Worsening drought and fire weather conditions anticipated over much of the upcoming week, with the next meaningful chance of rain not until Sunday && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Persistent upper level ridging and a warm southwest low-level flow regime will continue to strongly favor well above normal temperatures through the remainder of the week. Each day will carry at least some potential for record- tying or record-breaking temperatures. For a little context, one of our forecast aids (the ECMWF's Extreme Forecast Index -or- EFI) continues to show a very strong signal for a stretch of highly anomalous temperatures, with a focus from Wednesday through Saturday. While above normal temperatures seem to be a foregone conclusion, there may be some subtle, but important, features that could impact just how hot each day gets. One is cloudcover. The upper level ridge will flatten some today and tomorrow, which will allow convective debris clouds from the Plains to overspread the Carolinas. Like yesterday, that could hold temps down some, preventing them from reaching the full potential of the low-level thicknesses present. By Thursday, the ridge is forecast to amplify again, with more of a southwest flow aloft redeveloping. This suggests that the warmest day of the week may be Thursday if that southwest flow can divert high level clouds away from the area. Another potential caveat is a weak front that may try to edge close to the area on Friday. Given the strength of the ridge, it's unlikely that this front gets this far south, but a small cluster of guidance suggests this may happen. If so, this could put a small dent in temps, and may even allow a very low risk of a few showers. This scenario appears unlikely, but is something we'll be monitoring in guidance through the week. KEY MESSAGE 2...Drought conditions are expected to persist through the foreseeable future with no rain in the forecast until Sunday. Even then, rainfall amounts on Sunday currently look to be less than a half an inch, which won't have much of an impact on the drought. The forecast area remains in a Severe Drought (D2), with some pockets of Extreme Drought (D3) emerging over the northern NC coastal plain. Precipitation deficits over the last 60 days range from 3-6 inches, which will only increase in the upcoming rain-free week. Growing vegetation and leaf out will only increase the strain on ground water in the coming weeks. While the forecast currently has conditions not meeting criteria for fire danger statements, the very dry conditions will continue to bring an elevated threat for wildfires. It is also worth noting that breezy afternoon/evening winds will be paired with relative humidities in the 30-40% range. Again, this is above Fire Danger Statement criteria, but given the increased sensitivities, it is worth a mention. The NCFS continues a statewide burn ban until further notice. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions ongoing across area terminals as high pressure sits over the western Atlantic and extends over much of the southeastern CONUS. Steady southwesterly winds are expected to remain elevated tonight, which is keeping NBM probs for fog and stratus depressed to 10% or less. Still, like last night, if areas decouple low-level moisture is sufficient enough to support some patchy shallow fog - most likely times between 10-12z. Typical warm season pattern tomorrow with increasing southwesterly flow and diurnal cumulus fields developing by midday. Sea breeze will cross late afternoon into early evening ushering a brief period of gusty southerly winds up to 20 kt at times. Outlook: Pred VFR conditions expected through the period with a more summertime pattern persisting through the week. Stronger winds likely in the coming days with tightening thermal gradient, most likely felt in the afternoons and evenings. && .MARINE... A pattern more typical of summer continues, with a daily chance of 20-25kt winds over waters favored in southwest flow where the thermal gradient is the strongest. This includes the Pamlico Sound and nearby rivers and sounds. The hottest days with the strongest thermal gradient may necessitate short-fused Small Craft Advisories, but it appears that today will not be one of those days. For the coastal waters, seas of 2-4 ft will be common through mid- week. Seas may approach 5 ft at times late in the week, especially from Cape Hatteras south. Outlook: A cold front is forecast to move through area waters on Sunday. Ahead of the front, there should be an increased risk of 25kt winds, with an even higher chance behind the front late Sunday into Monday. Of note, some of the stronger guidance suggests the potential for gale-force winds behind the front. Stay tuned for updates on this frontal passage and the potential marine impacts late in the weekend into early next week. && .CLIMATE... Record High temps for 4/14 (Tuesday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 89/1948 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 80/1994 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 93/1922 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 80/1996 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 99/1930 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 88/1977 (NCA ASOS) Record High temps for 4/15 (Wednesday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 94/1972 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 84/1922 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 96/1922 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 80/1964 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 92/1941 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 93/2006 (NCA ASOS) Record High temps for 4/16 (Thursday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 92/1972 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 78/1994 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 92/1972 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 82/2006 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 92/2006 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 91/1972 (NCA ASOS) Record High temps for 4/17 (Friday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 91/1976 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 83/2012 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 92/1972 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 82/1976 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 91/1972 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 91/2006 (NCA ASOS) && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 7 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ196-204-205. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RM/RJ AVIATION...MS MARINE...RM  641 FXUS61 KBTV 140748 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 348 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 344 AM EDT Tuesday... Confidence in severe weather has increased across portions of central and southern Vermont today as a Slight Risk (2 out of 5) has been added by the Storm Prediction Center for possible damaging winds. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 344 AM EDT Tuesday... 1. Showers with embedded thunderstorms likely today, with a couple stronger storms possible, mainly south of US Route 4. Damaging winds will be the main threat with any possible severe storms. 2. Additional precipitation chances and warm temperatures will continue through the end of the work week with some embedded thunderstorm chances in the afternoons. 3. A more amplified weather pattern and shortwave will lead to unseasonably warm conditions and scattered rain showers at the end of the week. 4. A round of widespread showers Saturday night and Sunday will usher in a sharply cooler period early next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 344 AM EDT Tuesday... KEY MESSAGE 1: An area of enhanced convection associated with an MCS is currently tracking across the Great Lakes this morning with widespread lightning as it approaches our area. This area of energy is riding along a nearly stationary boundary that is draped across our region with a weak surface low centered over Lake Michigan. This sfc low will track near the International Border by this afternoon bringing widespread shower and thunderstorm chances. The latest SPC day1 outlook shows a Slight Risk (2 out of 5) south of a line from Saranac Lake, NY to Lebanon, NH, with a Marginal Risk (1 out of 5) for the rest of the region. The main threat with any thunderstorms today will be potentially damaging gusty winds. A cold front associated with the sfc low will begin to organize itself into a broken line of showers as early as noon today across the St. Lawrence Valley. Instability ahead of the line remains somewhat uncertain for most of the region with high clouds and a lack of diurnal heating time as the boundary slides east. HRRR and RRFS models denote an earlier boundary progression between 3 and 5 PM in the CPV, whereas the NAM3k continues to favor a later arrival to the CPV between 6 PM and 8 PM, which the latter would be favorable for stronger storms. Any instability in the warm sector will be maximized in the southern Champlain Valley and southern Vermont where some clearing and higher temperatures into the 70s will allow Sfc CAPE to rise to 400-600J/kg progged in the HRRR, supported by HREF probability maximums of 40-60% across southern Vermont. Furthermore, these warming temperatures will allow lapse rates to rise to 7-8C/km supporting areas of thunderstorms development. A low level jet across the International Border will help support 0 to 6 km shear to 40 to 50 knots mainly north of US 4, but with pockets of embedded 40-50 knots of shear in southern Vermont. This highlights the strongest winds are north and the highest instability is south. These pockets of embedded higher shear will be colocated with curving hodographs and around 200 m2/s2 0 to 3 km SRH which would support some isolated areas of rotation. However, failure modes do exist, with convective blowoff limiting instability potential, LCLs to above 1000 m, and the innate climatology of rotation for our region that would not favor any supercells this time of year. Localized heavy rain cannot be ruled out with Pwats around 1 to 1.25 inches, but progressive storm motion, and lack of training storm signals keeps this threat level low. This will be a nowcasting type of day as we watch how the environment evolves throughout the day to see how robust convection will be. For now the greatest action will likely be across Rutland/Windsor Counties with the potential for damaging wind gusts above 60 MPH, with most of the overall action south of our CWA. KEY MESSAGE 2: An active weather pattern is expected through mid week into late week as a nearly stationary boundary becomes draped across the region north of a ridge over the Southeast. Multiple shortwaves will ride along this ridge under westerly flow producing additional chances for precipitation through the late week. The stationary boundary will likely fluctuate from day to day depending on both mesoscale features like residual convective prior day activity and synoptic flow. These changes will have significant impacts on temperatures and daytime instability for both Wednesday and Thursday. Latest trends indicate the Wednesday system arriving during the late morning into early afternoon with embedded thunderstorms possible. Given the timing thunderstorm chances will be limited, but the best chances will be across central and southern Vermont. This setup will be similar to todays thunderstorm potential, but the boundary may setup a bit south of todays, which would limit the available instability. HRRR/NAM3 profiles show weaker lapse rates with a low LCL and potential strong inversion above 500 ft. There will be little change in the overall airmass with temperatures still rising into the upper 60s to low 70s in southern Vermont and in the upper 50s to low 60s elsewhere. Thursday will will almost be a carbon copy of Wednesday, and as usual, instability will be the driving factor for any thunderstorm potential. Trends for Thursday have been towards some morning convection which will limit the afternoon instability and thunderstorm threat, but with these setups, boundary motion is hard to nail down, and where and if these thunderstorms develop is still uncertain. Regardless, most of the area can expected rounds of showers and embedded thunderstorms and warm temperatures through the late week. KEY MESSAGE 3: A quick-hitting shortwave will bring some rain showers and potential embedded thunderstorms, mainly in southern Vermont, on Friday as guidance indicates 925mb temperatures could reach 13-17 C Friday afternoon. Due to this and decreasing clouds, forecast surface temps are as high as the 60s and lower 70s, with non-zero instability values projected. Probability of measurable precipitation runs about 30-60% Friday afternoon, likely realized as spotty showers everywhere and a few rumbles of thunder in central/southern Vermont. Lows Friday night should remain mild in the 40s and lower 50s, with only a brief period of high pressure between systems late Friday night and Saturday morning. The next chance for precipitation arrives late Saturday afternoon and evening as a larger frontal system approaches. Despite increasing clouds, temperatures are expected to again rise above seasonable normals Saturday, reaching into the 60s in strong southerly flow and modest warm air advection. KEY MESSAGE 4: A large frontal system, centered over Ontario and the Hudson Bay Saturday night, will drag a cold frontal boundary through the forecast area into Sunday. Lows Saturday night in the 40s and lower 50s will fall into the upper 20s to mid 30s on Sunday night, and highs Sunday in the mid 50s to lower 60s become upper 30s to mid 40s Monday as cooler air spills into the region on northwesterly flow behind a secondary cold front. Probabilities of measurable precipitation in six hours are about 50-65% by Sunday afternoon, though probabilities of rainfall 0.50" within 24 hours during this period is around 10-30%. Thunderstorms are most likely Sunday afternoon in northern New York when warmth lingers, but the timing of instability, warmth, and forcing do not align favorably for widespread t-storms in this system as the best forcing occurs at night. Sunday night and Monday, as temperatures fall, there is the potential for some snow showers, mainly at higher elevations, before the arrival of drier air behind a secondary front tapers off precip. High pressure keeps weather quieter and cool toward the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 06Z Wednesday...Showers with embedded thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday with a couple of stronger storms possible. Winds tonight are generally westerly to northwesterly with a few gusts observed in southern Vermont 10-20 knots. In areas seeing a lighter wind and breaks in clouds, some patchy fog may develop over the next few hours. Around 12Z-15Z Tuesday, a southerly wind will develop, except at MSS, which should see more northeasterly to northerly winds. Ceilings throughout the day will likely hover around 2500-3500 feet above ground level, potentially lower in showers crossing west to east across northern New York and Vermont 15Z Tuesday through 00Z Wednesday. Embedded thunderstorms are possible starting at 18Z Tuesday, but when and where t-storms occur is not clear at this time, so TAFs have only SHRA. Also with these showers and t-storms, gusts 30-35 knots are not out of the question. However, like the t- storms, the timing and location of such gusts is of higher uncertainty, so gusts closer to 15-25 knots are in the TAFs. Some LLWS is also expected as southwest to west winds at 2000 ft agl increase along the showers/storms, around 20Z Tuesday onwards. With the passage of the showers/associated frontal boundary, surface winds should turn out of the west-northwest again (except MSS) by around 00Z Wednesday, and ceilings are expected to fall into widespread IFR levels into the evening. Outlook... Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Wednesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Thursday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA. Friday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday: MVFR. Slight chance SHRA. && .CLIMATE... As of 344 AM EDT Tuesday... Incoming warmer air is presently forecast to approach daily record values. The most likely dates for near or broken records will be today with mild overnight air leading to high minimum temperatures. Below are some of the daily records in jeopardy of being broken (current forecast at or within 3 degrees of the record). Record High Minimum Temperatures: April 14: KBTV: 54/2023 KPBG: 51/1964 KSLK: 47/1964 && .EQUIPMENT... The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service. This site is not serviced by the NWS. An estimated return to service is May 1st. Please contact us if you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational forecast. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Danzig DISCUSSION...Storm/Danzig AVIATION...Storm CLIMATE...NWS BTV EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV  231 FXUS63 KLMK 140751 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 351 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Well-above normal temperatures continue throughout the upcoming week. A few temperature records may be in jeopardy today, tomorrow, and Friday. * The next chance for widespread rainfall is expected Thursday. Most likely rainfall amounts range from 0.2-0.5" across the area. The chance for strong storms is relatively low, but cannot be ruled out at this time. * A stronger cold front will bring a chance for showers and storms again on Saturday. Another low-end threat for strong storms exists with this system. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 351 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Today and Tonight... This morning, quiet and mild conditions are present across the Ohio Valley as high clouds from upstream convection pass over the region. There is a fairly notable west-to-east gradient in temperatures and dewpoints this morning as drier low-level air has filtered in over the Cumberland Plateau into east/east central KY this morning. Expect this gradient to hold through mid-morning before daytime heating and moisture advection helps to reduce the temperature and moisture gradient across the region. Today, the persistent large-scale pattern of southeast US upper ridging and western US troughing is expected to continue, with deep SW flow continuing from the Ohio Valley and points NW. Another breezy and warm day is expected today, with more sunshine allowing temperatures to warm 4-8 degrees above persistence, with highs expected in the mid 80s for most of the area. While we have a 35-45 kt 850mb jet over the region this morning, this should weaken later today, though we still expect SW winds of 10-15 mph and wind gusts of 20-25 mph across the area. For the majority of the area, there is a 90+% chance of dry weather today. However, HREF reflectivity paintballs do show a few showers trying to develop across the Bluegrass later this morning. Additionally, upstream convection over central IL/IN may approach our northern and northeast zones, mainly northeast of a line from Salem, IN to Paris, KY. There is only a 10- 20% chance of a storm in these areas, but if upstream convection was able to provide enough forcing for convective initiation, 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and 30 kt of bulk shear could support a conditional strong storm with gusty winds and hail. Dry weather should continue across the area tonight, with the axis of showers and storms expected to remain well northwest of the region. Lows will be mild again Wednesday morning in the 60s in most locations. Wednesday and Wednesday Night... Another warm and breezy day is expected on Wednesday with only small changes expected to the overall pattern. A shortwave disturbance over the Rockies today will eject into the Plains by Wednesday afternoon, with more waves of showers and storms expected from the Plains into the Great Lakes. Some erosion of the upper level ridge will begin tomorrow, which could allow successive waves of convection to get closer to our southern IN counties. There is a 20- 30% chance for precipitation along and north of the river Wednesday; however, a lot of the chance that does exist is dependent on upstream convection, so confidence is low. Otherwise, temperatures should once again rise into the 80s across the area tomorrow. If mid- and high-level clouds are less prevalent than expected, upper 80s would be possible, especially across southern/southeastern KY. Highs should be within 1-3 degrees of daily records. Wednesday night into Thursday morning, additional erosion of the upper ridge should allow showers and storms to approach the area from the west. Current most-likely timing has precipitation arriving west of I-65 around sunrise Thursday, so Wednesday night should remain dry. Near-persistence forecast on low temps is expected, with most areas falling into the 60s Thursday morning. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 351 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Thursday - Friday Night... Thursday continues to look like the next good chance for rain across the area as the above-mentioned upper-level shortwave slides across the region. Showers and a few embedded thunderstorms should move from west to east across southern IN and central KY during the day, with the relatively diffuse forcing likely resulting in multiple waves of precipitation. Machine learning severe convection guidance shows a modest signal (5-15% chance) for strong storms Thursday, and model soundings suggest that ample cloud cover and deep saturation may limit instability. Still, a few strong storms can't be ruled out, with gusty winds and small hail being the main hazards. Ensemble mean rain amounts with Thursday's chance range from a few tenths across Lake Cumberland and the I-75 corridor to around 0.50" in southwest IN/western KY, so it's unlikely that we'll be able to make much of a dent in the drought across south central KY. Temperatures on Thursday should be less warm given the extra clouds and precipitation, with highs generally ranging from 75-80. Shower/storm chances are expected to diminish from west to east Thursday night as upper ridging builds back into the region from the southwest Friday morning. Warmer temperatures and mostly dry weather should return on Friday, with highs again forecast in the low-to-mid 80s. A band of increasing SW flow will nose into the mid-Mississippi Valley Friday afternoon and evening, with this warm advection wing potentially initiating showers and storms Friday night into Saturday morning. At this time, there is a 20-30% chance for showers/storms west of I-65 Friday night, and some strong upstream convection could spill into the area; however, it is still more likely that we remain dry into early Saturday morning. Saturday into Early Next Week... During the day on Saturday, an amplifying upper trough over the Plains will push across the Mississippi Valley, bringing a cold front into the region sometime between Saturday afternoon and early Sunday morning. Saturday should be our last very warm day in this stretch, with highs expected in the upper 70s and low-to-mid 80s. With the sfc low pressure center ejecting well to the north into the Great Lakes, our chance for showers and storms Saturday should come along and just ahead of the cold front, so FROPA timing will be key to shower/storm chances Saturday into Saturday night. Over the past few model runs, a slightly faster trend has been noted in this system, with the highest precipitation chances (60-70%) now occurring in the afternoon hours. A downward trend in PoPs is now featured after sunset Saturday, with winds swinging around from the SW to the W/NW with cold FROPA. The severe setup on Saturday is somewhat similar to Thursday in that instability will be less impressive than areas upstream on Friday due to deep saturation and cloud cover, although forcing along the well-defined cold front will be stronger. Machine learning guidance is relatively similar, showing a 5-15% chance for strong storms across the area. Would also expect similar threats as Thursday, with gusty winds and small hail possible in any stronger storms. Behind the cold front, robust cold advection should send temperatures back to near/slightly-below seasonable levels for Sunday into early next week. Upper troughing is expected to linger across the east coast of the US through early next week, leaving the Ohio Valley under a NW flow pattern. This should bring cool/seasonable temperatures and dry weather for the period Sunday through next Tuesday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 126 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions are present at all terminals early this morning, and are expected to continue through the current forecast period. Through dawn this morning, LLWS is expected across all forecast sites as a LLJ continues over the region. Once daytime heating can begin, stronger wind gusts should begin to mix down to the surface, with SW winds of 12-18 kt and gusts of 20-27 kt expected during peak heating today. Overall, the chance for any SHRA/TSRA is low (<20%) today, but can't completely rule out an isolated cell through this afternoon. Tonight, wind gusts should ease again as winds are expected to back toward the south around 10 kt through the end of the current forecast period. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CSG LONG TERM...CSG AVIATION...CSG  558 FXUS65 KPIH 140752 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 152 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quieter Weather Today: Expect a temporary break in widespread weather today, though isolated showers persist in the Eastern Highlands. - High-Impact Wednesday: A potent storm system brings widespread moisture and high winds, with gusts of 40–45 mph likely across the Snake Plain. - Significant Late-Week Cold: Temperatures plummet Wednesday night. Thursday and Friday will be notably cold with highs in the 30s and 40s and light snow possible on valley floors. - Hard Freeze Likely: Widespread lows in the 20s are expected Friday and Saturday mornings. Due to the early start of the growing season, Freeze Watches/Warnings may be issued to protect vulnerable crops. - Rapid Weekend Recovery: Conditions dry out by Saturday with a significant warming trend returning temperatures to the 60s by Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 141 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A brief reprieve in widespread activity arrives today as the region sits between weather systems. While most of the area will remain dry, high-resolution guidance suggests a few lingering, isolated showers remain possible across the Eastern Highlands throughout the afternoon. This window of relative quiet will be short-lived; a robust weather system is expected to push into the Central Mountains early Wednesday morning, with precipitation chances increasing steadily from west to east as the day progresses. This midweek system appears to be a significant moisture producer for all of Eastern Idaho. Beyond the precipitation, Wednesday is slated to be the windiest day of the week—particularly for the upper Snake River Plain—with gusts of 40–45 mph likely requiring a Wind Advisory in future forecast packages. A strong cold front will sweep through the region late Wednesday into Thursday morning, dropping snow levels rapidly to all valley floors. A much colder air mass will settle in behind the front, driving Thursday's highs into the upper 30s and low 40s—a sharp 15-degree drop from Wednesday. Recent model trends suggest Thursday and Friday may be even chillier than previously anticipated. These plummeting temperatures, combined with persistent gusts of 30 to 40 mph, will create a significant raw chill. Consequently, light snow reaching valley floors is increasingly likely starting Thursday morning. While valley accumulations are expected to be minor (an inch or less), more impactful snow is forecast for the higher terrain, where winter weather headlines may be necessary. The secondary, and perhaps more significant, impact of this cold air mass involves local agriculture. Widespread sub- freezing temperatures are expected Friday and Saturday mornings, with lows dropping into the 20s across primary growing regions and the teens elsewhere. Although it is early in the season for frost/freeze products, the unseasonably warm winter has accelerated plant growth, making it necessary to issue Freeze Watches or Warnings to protect vulnerable crops. Lingering mountain precipitation will persist into Friday, though the region will slowly dry out over the course of the day. Looking ahead to the weekend, ensemble guidance indicates the cold upper-level trough will begin to exit the region. As high pressure builds by Saturday, temperatures will trend back toward seasonal normals before climbing well above normal by Sunday, with 60s likely returning to valley locations. Looking into next week, models suggest another disturbance may approach the Pacific Northwest, with moisture potentially returning as early as Monday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 932 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Models show low level moisture becoming widespread across the Snake River Plain overnight. Probably too much wind for fog, but MVFR/IFR stratus almost certain. This stratus will probably mix out late morning with gusty conditions developing for afternoon. SUN will probably turn upvalley around midday for a couple hours before switching to a crosswind around mid afternoon. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...McKaughan AVIATION...13  401 FXUS63 KDLH 140756 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 256 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cloudy today as clouds emanate from Lake Superior, foggy conditions possible closer to the Lake. - Light rain with a few rumbles of thunder across northern MN today - Better chances for severe weather to return to the Northland on Friday - Snow possible late Friday and into Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 247 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Current Conditions/Today: Thunderstorm activity has pushed well off to our southeast this morning with some scattered rain showers still appearing on radar across the Northland. Later this morning an upper level trough will eject out the Red River Valley and produce some rain showers across northern MN. There is some very weak MUCAPE in the morning that could lead to a few rumbles of thunder but overall not expecting much in way of impactful rain or storms. Look for this area of showers to moves west to east exiting the Arrowhead in the afternoon. Today will also see very cloudy conditions as easterly winds across the region will help spread the influence of Lake Superior through the Northland. Satellite imagery as of 3AM shows this expansive cloud has already engulfed NW WI and is quickly heading towards the Iron Range and the Brainerd Lake Region. Model guidance is in good agreement with keeping this blanket expanding farther east through the day. Foggy conditions will also be prevalent, especially the closer you get to Lake Superior. With this in mind we have dropped high temperatures 2-5F across the region from what the previous forecast package had. Wednesday/Thursday: We get a small reprieve in the active weather pattern for Wednesday and Thursday as the Northland finds itself in between low pressure systems with dry air aloft keeping precipitation at bay. The only exception to this may be our far southeast counties. The 00Z suite of deterministic guidance has trended farther southeast with the system but a quick glance at both the AIGFS and EC-AIFS shows northwest WI still getting clipped as the system tracks towards Lake Michigan. For now, we will keep a mention of low end PoPs of 30-40%. With the surface boundary staying well off to our south some elevated convection would be the primary concern with small hail being the main hazard if any storms do manage to form. The other low pressure to the northwest looks to stay that way with good model consensus propagating it into Ontario. Thursday will be quiet with a stalled out boundary draped across northern MN and a strong southerly push of winds through the day. Highs will climb into the 60s and 70s with the traditional cooler by the Lake type of day. Friday into the Weekend: Friday is still shaping up to be our next active and impactful weather day. An upper level trough digs into the four corners region with an elongated system developing across the Upper Midwest and down into the Central Plains. The northern most low pressure looks to make its way into northern MN with a cold front dropping south across the Brainerd Lakes. Ahead of this boundary will be a broad warm sector that will see increased dewpoints surging into the region. We will also likely see a gulf connection boosting our PWATs and adding fuel to the atmosphere for storms to develop. Current guidance would suggest moderate instability with adequate bulk shear for severe storms to develop. Details will have to be refined as we get closer but at this time it looks like all hazards will be possible ahead of the cold front. As Friday's system departs we will see a plunge of cold air crashing in from the northwest Friday night and lingering into Saturday. Wrap around moisture will fall as snow with some light accumulations overnight possible. However, given how warm we have been our ground temperatures will likely make quick work of this snow. There is a signal for increased rates late Saturday morning into the afternoon as the upper level trough pivots over the region providing a boost to synoptic forcing. The current NBM guidance wants to have a couple of inches of accumulation for Saturday, but not sure that seems reasonable even with the boost in forcing. High temperatures are still expected to get above freezing and the high sun angle for mid April should also work against these totals. SLRs are currently 15- 16:1 which seems way too high for Saturday afternoon, 10:1 max would probably be generous. Further adjustments will likely be needed. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1227 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Thunderstorm complexes are well off to the southeast this morning with radar showing some scattered rain showers still floating across the Northland, primarily over northern MN. Mostly VFR conditions to start the forecast period but easterly winds off Lake Superior is expected to spread a marine layer over much of the region lowering clouds to LIFR and producing fog. This layer is largely expected to remain in place through the day. There will also be some additional rain that comes through northern MN in the morning. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 247 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The gustiest northeast winds across Lake Superior have passed with a few gusts around 20 kts still being observed across the Lake. Small Craft Advisories have been canceled. There is an expansive cloud deck emanating from Lake Superior that is expected to remain in place through today and into tomorrow. This cloud deck may sink lower to the Lake leading to dense fog, however, webcams have not shown this development yet and model guidance is split on whether this will come to fruition. A marine dense fog advisory may be needed at later this morning. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 247 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Low fire weather concerns today and tomorrow as Min RHs largely stay above 40%. A surge of southerly winds on Thursday could lead to some drier and windier conditions. Not expecting winds or RHs to approach Red Flag Criteria. Widespread active weather returns Friday with severe weather possible followed by snow potential late Friday through Saturday. Minimal snow accumulations expected. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 342 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Over the past 72 hrs we have had a few swaths of 0.25-0.50" over our existing snowpack into the Arrowhead and the South Shore. The highest swatch of over 1" ran through Sawyer into southern Ashland and Iron Counties. There is still some potential for storms to develop late this afternoon and evening and move across our Flood Watch counties, but chances have decreased as the warm front that will be the focal point for storm initiation is projected to be farther south. Additional rainfall of around 0.50" will be possible with locally higher amounts should any storms develop. Tuesday's activity also looks to be more light rain focused on northern MN. With this in mind we have opted to shorten the duration of the Flood Watch to Tuesday morning. An impressively warm day for Sunday has help to melt more of the snow pack. The South Shore saw temperatures climb into the 60s and 70s. And even the North Shore got in on some of the warmth action with highs capping out in the 50s. Modeled snow depth across the South Shore saw a significant decrease losing as much as 8" in just 24 hrs. The North Shore's >24" foot print has also been reduced from the Arrowhead to mainly the high terrain of the North Shore. It's hard to know the extent of how much water this has returned to the soil but across the South Shore it is likely in excess of 2". Taking a trip through some of river gauges does show some response to this added liquid from snow melt. Across the MN sites the river heights have increase 0.5-1.0' NW WI where we saw the more impressive melting has seen rises of 2-3' across several rivers. The Tyler Forks River near Mellen WI is still the primary concern with a Flood Warning already in effect. This river is expected to crest on Tuesday morning just below moderate flood stage and move out of minor flooding Thursday. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for WIZ002>004. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Britt AVIATION...Britt MARINE...Britt FIRE WEATHER...Britt HYDROLOGY...Britt  572 FXUS63 KLSX 140757 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 257 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and humid conditions continue through most of this week. The best chances for thunderstorms, some potentially severe, are tonight and Wednesday. - A strong cold front brings seasonably cool temperatures for the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Wednesday Afternoon) Issued at 256 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The overall weather pattern across the US consists of surface high pressure near the southeast US coastline with a rich plume of Gulf moisture (60+ dewpoints) circulating around this high from central Texas northeast to the Chicago area. The western edge of this moisture plume is bounded by a dryline, oscillating back and forth each day with daytime heating and the passage of shortwave troughs aloft. The northern extent is bounded by a quasi-stationary front/trough stretching from Nebraska to Michigan. Looking aloft, upper level ridging is centered over the Gulf with a trough over the Southwest US moving from around Las Vegas to the Four Corners during the day today. Between the Gulf ridge and the Southwest US trough exists a southwesterly jet with embedded shortwave troughs. The rich low level moisture on the edge of the upper level ridge has led to an axis of instability within which multiple patches of thunderstorms will continue to generate over the coming days. Seasonably strong mid level flow combines with the instability to produce conditions favorable for supercell thunderstorms and occasional convective clusters where thunderstorms form. Zooming in on our forecast area, although instability maximizes this afternoon with daytime heating (temperatures nearing 90!), the influence of the ridge aloft is expected to maintain capping through much of the day, inhibiting convective development. We'll be in between disturbances to our northeast and southwest leading to a local minimum in convective potential. The primary focus for development will be more toward the periphery of the ridge and along the surface boundaries: the warm/stationary front to the north and the dryline to the west. High resolution guidance is in good agreement that convection will be suppressed locally during the day today. That said, if we are able to get any local areas of lift along a local convergence zone or in an area of locally maximized low level moisture (reducing capping), then a storm or two could develop. The environment is primed for supercell thunderstorms if this occurs, with large hail and damaging winds the main threats. The better chance for thunderstorms locally will be from leftover storms which formed to our west tracking into our area during the late evening or overnight hours. While wind shear will still be sufficient for organized thunderstorms, surface based instability will be on a downward diurnal trend by the time any such activity reaches our area, limiting the severe weather potential. On Wednesday the southwest trough opens up and lifts northeast through the Plains. This leads to greater mid level lift supporting more widespread showers and thunderstorms across the instability axis including through our region. While we continue to see moderate to strong mid level flow sufficient for storm organization, more widespread cloud cover is expected to limit the development of surface based instability to just patches of stronger instability where cloud cover is less extensive. As a result, our confidence in the timing and location of the severe weather threat on Wednesday is lower, though the threat is likely to favor the afternoon hours when the potential for surface based instability is greatest during the heat of the day. We may not have greater clarity on these points until Wednesday morning when the effects of morning clouds and showers can be a bit better known. Kimble && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night through Monday) Issued at 256 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The passage of the trough Wednesday into Wednesday night will also shove the front southeastward, pulling in some slightly drier air and shifting the instability axis southeastward. Showers and storms may still be ongoing Thursday morning, with the focus for convective activity shifting toward the Ohio Valley with time. Most of our area sees gradually clearing skies with continued warm temperatures near 80 degrees. While ridging briefly builds back in behind Wednesday's departing trough, a stronger trough will be moving out of the Pacific Northwest and into the Plains on Friday. We'll see moisture return northward ahead of this approaching trough setting up the potential for another round of severe thunderstorms. Where that severe weather threat materializes depends on the speed of the front. At the moment, timing of the front favors a greater severe thunderstorm threat to our west as the front moves through our area mostly during the overnight Friday night into the first half of the day on Saturday. However, if the front speeds up a bit, this could shift the threat more into our area. Alternatively, if it slows down a bit, then another threat could develop during peak heating on Saturday. At this stage it's too soon to have much confidence in a severe weather threat locally given the current expected frontal timing, but it's a time period to watch for any changes that could shift the threat into our area. The air mass behind this front is MUCH cooler than what we've been dealing with as of late. This air mass has origins in the Arctic which is still cold this time of year. There remains some uncertainty in how cold it will be by the time it reaches our area, but there is strong confidence that we'll see at least one day of below normal temperatures. NBM interquartile range for high temperatures on Sunday is around 10 degrees, with the warmer end of that range right around normal for mid April while the cooler end is several degrees below normal. Dewpoints also drop into the 20s suggesting that if we were to get a clear, calm night that temperatures could approach levels where a frost or freeze could develop. At this time, NBM probability of 32 degrees or colder is only 5 to 15 percent across the region as the likelihood of seeing the clear, calm conditions necessary to realize this air mass's full potential is low. We will begin to warm back up again early next week as amplified ridging rather quickly replaces this weekend's trough. Kimble && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night) Issued at 1102 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A complex of showers and thunderstorms has track from eastern Kansas into central Missouri late this evening. The activity is expected to make it into KCOU just before midnight and near KJEF around 06z. The strongest thunderstorms have produced wind gusts up to 70 mph to the west of the TAF sites, though general weakening is expected with eastward movement. Locally heavy rain and gusty winds are possible with these thunderstorms, through approximately 08z. Thunderstorms should continue to weaken as they approach the Mississippi River late tonight. Cloud base remain above VFR level for the most part with localize, briefing dips to MVFR under the strongest cells. MVFR will become less likely as thunderstorms remain elevated and weaken overnight. Gusty conditions are expected to continue much of the time, being more prevalent during the daylight hours after diurnal mixing resumes late Tuesday morning. Isolated to widely scattered showers are possible Tuesday afternoon, but will be hit-or-miss. This was not included in the prevailing group with the high degree of uncertainty at any given terminal. Chances for rain increase late Tuesday night with showers and an isolated thunderstorm. However, widespread thunderstorms are not expected with VFR persisting through the end of the period. Maples && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX  896 FXUS61 KLWX 140759 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 359 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Small Craft Advisory has been issued for all the waters for this afternoon into this evening. A Special Weather Statement for elevated fire weather may be required later today. Fire Weather Watches may be required for both Wed and Thu. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Record high minimum and high maximum temperatures expected Wednesday and Thursday with an elevated fire weather risk each afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Record high minimum and high maximum temperatures expected Wednesday and Thursday with an elevated fire weather risk each afternoon. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Hi-res models indicate convection developing late today across Pennsylvania may reach northern MD this evening before dissipating by midnight as it moves east southeast. There is also a slight chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm over the Allegheny and Blue Ridge Mountains due to terrain circulations. Otherwise, upper level ridge will remain the dominant weather feature, cresting over the area Thursday supporting record warmth and dry conditions. While models have shown a slight warm bias in temperatures recently, model trends support 92-93 degs Wed and Thu respectively. Dewpoints will remain in the 50s, which is considerable comfortable. As for convection, very negigible chance of convection Wed and Thu as upper ridge crests over the area. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Gusty afternoon SW winds up to 25 kt between 17Z and 23Z. A slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm, mainly at KMRB. Similar winds Wed and Thu, with no chance of convection. Some risk of convection Fri. && .MARINE... SCA issued for all the waters valid 17Z-00Z. Conditions will likely repeat itself both Wed and Thu. Risk of thunderstorms Fri. && .FIRE WEATHER... Elevated fire weather risk today through Thu due to very warm temperatures, marginally low humidities, and gusty afternoon winds of 20-25 mph. Wed and Thu will have the lowest humidities with values in the mid 20s. An RFW may be needed for both Wed and Thu. && .CLIMATE... Record hi max seem unlikely today, but record hi low seem more likely. Wed and Thu likely to see new records set as highs reach 92-93 degs. Many daily records are likely to be broken this week, for both high temperatures and warm low temperatures. Some stations could tie or set their all-time high temperature and warm low temperature records for the month of April. April 14 LocationRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW Washington-National (DCA)91F (1960) 65F (2014) Washington-Dulles (IAD) 87F (1960) 63F (2014) Baltimore (BWI) 91F (1941) 65F (2018) Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 90F (1960) 67F (2018) Martinsburg (MRB) 87F (1960) 62F (2014) Charlottesville (CHO) 90F (1945) 67F (1899) Annapolis(NAK) 90F (1941) 65F (1977) Hagerstown (HGR) 86F (2024) 64F (2014) April 15 LocationRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW Washington-National (DCA)89F (1941) 65F (2023) Washington-Dulles (IAD) 87F (1967) 62F (2023) Baltimore (BWI) 88F (1941) 65F (1941) Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 92F (2024) 67F (1960) Martinsburg (MRB) 90F (1941) 63F (1967) Charlottesville (CHO) 92F (2024) 68F (1941) Annapolis(NAK) 91F (1941) 68F (1994) Hagerstown (HGR) 85F (1960) 61F (2023) April 16 LocationRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW Washington-National (DCA)92F (2002) 65F (2017) Washington-Dulles (IAD) 91F (2002) 63F (2017) Baltimore (BWI) 90F (2012) 66F (1941) Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 91F (2012) 65F (2012) Martinsburg (MRB) 90F (2002) 63F (2017) Charlottesville (CHO) 92F (1976) 67F (1941) Annapolis(NAK) 89F (2017) 70F (1994) Hagerstown (HGR) 88F (2002) 62F (2002) April 17 LocationRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW Washington-National (DCA) 95F (2002)65F (2002) Washington-Dulles (IAD) 93F (2002)59F (2024) Baltimore (BWI) 93F (2002)66F (1896) Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 95F (2002)66F (1976) Martinsburg (MRB) 93F (2002)60F (1941) Charlottesville (CHO) 94F (1976)65F (1976) Annapolis(NAK) 90F (1976)68F (1994) Hagerstown (HGR) 90F (2002)64F (2002) All-Time April Record Highs: Washington-National (DCA)95F 4/17/2002, 4/18/1976, 4/23/1960 4/27/1915 Washington-Dulles (IAD) 93F 4/6/2010, 4/17/2002, 4/25/1960 Baltimore (BWI) 94F 4/25/1960, 4/23/1960, 4/20/1941, 4/18/1896 Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 98F 4/26/1990, 4/22/1985 Martinsburg (MRB) 96F 4/21/1941 Charlottesville (CHO) 98F 4/24-25/1925 Annapolis(NAK) 95F 4/20/1941 Hagerstown (HGR) 94F 4/6/2010, 4/18/1976, 4/26/1915 All-Time April Record Warm-Lows: Washington-National (DCA)70F 4/29/2017 Washington-Dulles (IAD) 68F 4/27/2011 Baltimore (BWI) 70F 4/19/1896 Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 76F 4/26/1990 Martinsburg (MRB) 69F 4/19/2025 Charlottesville (CHO) 72F 4/26/1915 Annapolis(NAK) 70F 4/28/1994, 4/16/1994, 4/18/1896 Hagerstown (HGR) 69F 4/27/2009 && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this evening for MDZ008. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ530>543. && $$ DISCUSSION...LFR AVIATION...LFR MARINE...LFR