791 FXUS65 KCYS 140800 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 200 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered rain and snow showers in Carbon and Albany counties this morning may result in a few slick spots along the I-80 corridor and accumulating snow above about 8500 feet in elevation. - A strong but compact system will bring a chance for rain to the High Plains, mainly Tuesday afternoon and evening. - Warmer and drier weather returns for Wednesday and Thursday, bringing elevated to critical fire weather conditions and marginally high winds in the wind prone areas. - A potent weather disturbance will produce windy, colder, and wetter weather for Thursday night and Friday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 200 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A weak upper-level trough and associated vort max will slide through the CWA today. This feature and its associated energy will increase the threat of precipitation, first across our western zones and then east/northeastward throughout the day. The suite of deterministic hi- res models depict this activity, albeit a bit disorganized and not with the greatest consensus. Because of this, forecast confidence is low due to this disagreement in solutions. In addition, modeled soundings show that the lower atmosphere is dry which will play a role if precipitation actually hits the ground. With all this being said, if you drew a line from Douglas to Chadron, south of this we have generally a 50% chance of precipitation. The greatest threat will be along I-80 from Rawlins to Sidney. At the latter parts of today, near Sidney, some guidance is showing the potential that there could be a few rumbles of thunder. However, instability parameters are meager at best and confidence if this will actually happen remains low. Peering into the world of ensemble guidance, probs greater than 60% of a location getting a tenth or more of liquid precipitation remains across the higher terrain west of Cheyenne and the Nebraska Panhandle. While here locally, unfortunately, Cheyenne has a 40-60% chance of a tenth of liquid precipitation. For the higher elevations, including Laramie, snow showers are a possibility with little to no accumulations expected. Locations above 8K feet may see a few inches of late season snowfall. This system and any precipitation will exit the CWA by Wednesday morning, then expect a quieter day along with plentiful sunshine throughout Wednesday. Switching gears a bit, lets take a look at temperatures and winds. First temperatures, with 700mb temps in the 0 to -2C range, expect highs this afternoon a tad cooler then previous days with 50s west of I-25 and mid 50s to mid 60s east of the I-25 corridor. And Wednesday, with clearing skies, 700mb temps warm up a bit into the +2 to +4C range, translating to a few degrees warmer across the board. Low temps will reflect a similar pattern, cooler Tuesday night (generally in the 30S) and near 40 for Wednesday night. Regarding winds, mid-level winds today are nothing to write home about, so expect surface winds generally less than 20 mph across the CWA. By early Wednesday morning, the 700mb jet picks right back up to near 50 knots, with the peak over the Laramie Range. However, per the GFS, subsidence is meager so these winds may not mix down to the surface. In-house guidance agrees, and shows generally less than 40% of high winds for our known wind prones along I-25 and I-80. This threat, albeit slim, will be all but over Wednesday afternoon/evening as winds across the region once again will be on a downward trend. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Thursday night-Friday...A progressive and sharp trough aloft and its associated cold front move from Idaho and Utah Thursday evening, to western Wyoming late Thursday night, with the cold front passing our counties Thursday night. The trough axis aloft tracks across our counties during the day on Friday. Fairly high confidence in scattered to numerous rain and snow showers spreading from west to east Thursday night, with likely to widespread snow showers Friday afternoon. Much cooler and windy on Friday with maximum temperatures in the mid 30s and 40s. Winter weather highlights may be needed for the mountains and nearby locations. Saturday...Snow showers will gradually end from west to east early in the day, as the shortwave trough aloft moves into the northern Great Plains states. Strong low and mid level northwest flow will help produce a windy day, with possible high winds for our wind prone locations. Somewhat warmer than Friday with 700 mb temperatures near 6 Celsius. Sunday...The flow aloft weakens as low amplitude shortwave ridging aloft develops over Wyoming, producing dry conditions and mild temperatures in the upper 50s and 60s with 700 mb temperatures near 2 Celsius. Monday...Ridging aloft moves over our forecast area, with surface lee troughing over our eastern counties, producing a dry and mild day. 700 mb temperatures near 8 Celsius will yield maximum temperatures in the mid 60s west of I-25, with 70s east of I-25. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1055 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A Pacific disturbance is forecast to push eastward along the Wyoming/Colorado border into late Tuesday afternoon. Scattered to numerous showers, some high elevation snow, and even a few thunderstorms are possible along the Interstate 80 corridor and close to the Colorado border 09z through 00z Wednesday. HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: Low confidence Aviation forecast over the next 18 hours, particularly over the southeast Wyoming terminals and KSNY. Expect VFR conditions to prevail at KCDR, KBFF, and KAIA with maybe a few light showers Tuesday afternoon. Further south, limited confidence in precip coverage and forecast VIS over KRWL and KLAR due to some snowfall or rain/snow mix. Even less confidence for KCYS and KSNY with model solutions showing poor run to run consistency for these two locations. For now, will keep the best chance for IFR conditions and brief periods of snow to KLAR even though probabilities for IFR are less than 15%. Added a mention of TSRA for KSNY with high res guidance in somewhat good agreement with thunderstorm activity confined to that region late Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening. Any MVFR or IFR conditions are expected to be brief and/or rapidly fluctuate. Expect clearing skies at all terminals after 03z Wednesday once the disturbance ejects eastward into the Great Plains. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RZ LONG TERM...RUBIN AVIATION...TJT  043 FXUS64 KMAF 140800 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 300 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 300 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Low to medium shower and thunderstorm chances (20-40%) today across the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans-Pecos. Damaging winds and large hail remain the primary hazards for the strongest storms. - Near-critical fire weather conditions are expected across southeast New Mexico, the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains, and portions of far west Texas through Friday. - Very windy conditions expected in the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains beginning this morning lasting through the evening. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Current satellite imagery and latest 500mb RAP analysis shows an upper-level low near the Desert Southwest. Strong southwesterly flow aloft over the region allows for strong to breezy winds and another round of storms today. Starting off with the winds, a 500mb jet max is expected to be positioned over central New Mexico. Guidance continues to show a mountain wave signature at both the 500 and 700mb levels across the Guadalupe Mountains. This signature suggests strong winds over these areas, therefore, a High Wind Warning is in effect until Tuesday evening. Strong winds are also anticipated over the Eddy County Plains this afternoon and early evening prompting a Wind Advisory. The dryline looks to advance in the eastern portions of the forecast area, keeping dry conditions for southeast New Mexico allowing elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions during the afternoon. Dense high cloud cover is going to limit the fire weather threat. See the fire weather discussion for more details below! Another round of storms are anticipated once again this afternoon and evening. Storm coverage and chances increase due to the additional lift from the approaching upper-level storm system and Pacific front. Storms look to develop in the mid afternoon hours across the Lower Trans Pecos. Further storm development takes shape as the dryline retreats back west in the early evening hours mainly across the eastern Permian Basin. A couple of storms may become strong to severe with the primary threats being damaging winds and large hail, thanks to sufficient deep-layer wind shear and instability. CAMs seem to be over-estimating instability (1500-3000 J/kg) for eastern portions of the area. Broken cloud coverage throughout the afternoon will limit instability, therefore, limiting the severe weather threat. Nonetheless, the environment is still favorable for a few strong storms to occur. Wednesday, the upper-level storm system moves further east into the Central Plains. This will keep the dryline east enough where low chances (10-20%) for isolated storms exist for far eastern portions during the afternoon and early evening. The aforementioned Pacific front cools temperatures slightly with highs ranging from the upper 70s and 80s for most locations. Lamberson && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Afternoon highs are expected to remain in the 80s and 90s during the latter part of this week, with Friday being the warmest day due to southwesterly downslope flow. The dryline we've been talking about the last several days could stay west enough for a small (10-20%) chance of a shower/storm to develop in the Permian Basin Thursday evening. By Friday, an upper-level trough moves across the Central Rockies and into the Central Great Plains. Meanwhile, the dryline moves back west near the Texas/New Mexico border and extends south towards the Big Bend. However, the best forcing for ascent is expected to be off to our north and wind will be the main impact portions of our area feels from this system. We are keeping a close eye on Friday in terms of fire weather as strong westerly winds, low relative humidity, and dry fuels are forecast across southeast New Mexico (see Fire Weather Discussion below for additional details). By Friday night into Saturday, a strong cold front is forecast to move through the area, resulting in northerly to northeasterly winds and cooler temperatures. We may have to increase winds in our forecast behind the front towards the end of the week as the NBM often handles these systems poorly. Afternoon highs drop into the 70s for most on Saturday, with even cooler temperatures on Sunday. This is due to increased cloud cover, chances of rain (10-40% mainly south of I-20), and easterly upslope flow. Cluster analysis depicts the return of upper-level ridging by early next week, signaling another temperature warmup. However, there is uncertainty in how much of a warmup we should expect as there is currently large spread amongst the ensemble members. This is likely due to differences in model solutions regarding the positioning and strength of the ridge. Greening && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions look to prevail through the period. Southerly to southeasterly winds will bring in moisture overnight which may cause low clouds (MVFR) to develop near MAF and FST terminals. There is very low confidence in this occurring, thus, left the lower CIGs out. Strong to breezy southerly and southwesterly winds are expected late this morning throughout the afternoon across all terminals. Rain/storm chances increase late this afternoon into the evening hours especially across FST and MAF sites, however, high uncertainty remains how far west storms will form at the moment. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Fire weather conditions increase today as stronger winds and MinRHs between 10-15 percent are expected along with drier fuels. Cloudy skies and light fuel loading will be limiting factors in the threat for rapid fire growth. As such, we have cancelled the Fire Weather Watch and opted not to upgrade to a Red Flag Warning, but instead issued a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement. Near-critical fire weather conditions continue through the end of the week for southeastern New Mexico and the northern Permian Basin, with Friday being the day to focus on most as a deep upper-level trough enters the Great Plains. This is expected to bring stronger southwesterly winds which in turn lowers MinRHs into the single digits. Additionally, continued drying fuels raise RFTIs into the 6-8 range across much of southeast New Mexico and portions of northern Culberson County in west Texas. This may result in critical to potentially extreme fire weather conditions on Friday for these areas. However, monitoring the latest forecast is highly suggested as things may change. Friday night into Saturday, winds are expected to shift northerly to northeasterly behind a cold front. As a result, cooler temperatures and improved MinRHs improve fire weather conditions, though winds are expected to be breezy. Greening && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 86 62 86 54 / 40 30 20 0 Carlsbad 86 55 82 48 / 10 0 0 0 Dryden 84 64 87 61 / 40 30 20 10 Fort Stockton 88 62 86 56 / 20 20 10 0 Guadalupe Pass 74 52 72 51 / 10 0 0 0 Hobbs 84 54 81 48 / 10 10 0 0 Marfa 78 48 78 44 / 10 10 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 86 62 85 55 / 20 30 10 0 Odessa 86 62 84 55 / 20 30 10 0 Wink 87 59 85 50 / 10 20 10 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Wind Warning from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning to 11 PM CDT /10 PM MDT/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. NM...High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 10 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County. Wind Advisory from noon today to 7 PM MDT this evening for Eddy County Plains. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....55 AVIATION...11  345 FXUS63 KMPX 140801 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 301 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of dense fog in the morning. - Stretch of unseasonably warm temperatures will continue through Friday. - Additional chances for showers/thunderstorms Wednesday and Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 256 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Regional radar imagery highlights our thunderstorms from yesterday evening are now a decaying MCS over E WI and W MI this morning. Surface observations reveal temperatures in the 40s and 50s with light and variable winds. This combined with the brief period of clear skies behind the frontal passage has led to the formation of areas of dense fog and low stratus across western Wisconsin and southern Minnesota. The area of dense fog will likely spread east across portions of central and western MN overnight. Fog will be slow to erode this morning, but should improve by lunch. On the other hand, cloud cover will stick around much of the day. Temperatures will likely end up in the 60s with a chance of 70 along I-90. Not bad for mid-April but not exactly a great day to spend outdoors. Precipitation chances will be restricted to the I-90 corridor in MN and along/south of I-94 in W WI. Twin Cities and locations N/W will remain dry. Another shortwave will track northeast from the Plains on Wednesday. This will bring another round of showers across the area. Thunderstorm threat should remain south and east of MN and western WI. Highs top out in the 60s. As that wave departs, another system developing over the Plains will begin to push east on Thursday. Speaking of Thursday, current guidance supports a rather nice day. Skies should clear out behind Wednesday's system and warm air advection ramps up ahead of the incoming Plains low. The southerly flow should help temperatures warm back into the mid 70s and looks like the nicest day of the forecast period. On Friday, moisture continues to return across the area as the next system moves through. A rather potent cold front is forecast with this system and will likely lead to another round of thunderstorms Friday afternoon. There is good model consistency with this system. If we take a look at the forecast soundings in the warm sector reveal another impressive early season environment with very steep lapse rates (8.0 to 9.0C/km), moderate instability, and favorable shear profiles. The cold front and it's associated synoptic forcing should be able to overcome the EML capping with convective initiation Friday afternoon. Storm mode should quickly turn linear before tracking east. This squall line would likely pose a severe risk Friday afternoon and early evening. Additionally, CSU ML probabilities would support a severe threat as well. The weekend will turn colder behind the front with highs in the 40s. The Saturday potential wintry mix/snow/slop looks less likely than it did 24 hours ago, notably the 00Z ECMWF & AIFS guidance no longer advertise the snow chance as they're weaker and further north with the system, but interestingly enough the GFS/GEM/ICON now support a brief period of snow. So what does this mean for your weekend forecast? It'll be colder with a chance of some light precipitation on Saturday. Sunday is dry, but remains chilly. It should be a good weekend to stay inside and finish up any projects before the warmer weather arrives for good. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1234 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Main concern overnight will be another round of IFR fog that will develop across the area. All terminals will likely see either fog or low stratus develop given the recent rainfall and clearing skies behind yesterday's thunderstorms. LAMP guidance remains most aggressive with visibility reductions across eastern MN/western WI. I've opted to lean on BUFKIT forecast soundings for a slightly less pessimistic look. Low stratus will slowly erode Tuesday AM with most sites returning to VFR by early afternoon. Light and variable winds overnight will turn northwesterly after daybreak between 5-10kts. KMSP...Guidance continues to point towards a window of IFR fog overnight. Fog and low stratus will erode by late morning and return to VFR with northwesterly flow by Tuesday afternoon. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...MVFR/SHRA early, then VFR. Wind NE 5kts. THU...VFR, chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind SE 5-10kts. FRI...MVFR/SHRA likely, chance -TSRA. Wind SE to SW 10-15G25kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BPH AVIATION...BPH  272 FXUS63 KGRB 140811 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 311 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a risk for severe weather south of a Wisconsin Rapids to Sturgeon Bay line this afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds are the main hazards. There is also an isolated tornado threat south of HWY 10. - Thunderstorms will lead to localized heavy rainfall, greater than 1", this afternoon and evening across central and east- central WI. This will lead to additional flood concerns through tonight. - Minor to moderate river flooding is ongoing or forecast to occur on several area rivers. Expect many rivers to rise this week due to additional rain and runoff from Upper Michigan, with the greatest impacts expected on the Menominee River, where some locations may see major flooding during the mid to late part of the week. - Addtioanl rounds of rain and thunderstorms are expected at times Wednesday through this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 310 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 This morning... Stratiform rain will come to an end from west to east early this morning as a LLJ shifts east. Dry conditions will then prevail through the rest of the morning. Behind the rain areas of fog are expected to develop across much of the region with the lowest visibilities, under 1/2 mile, across northern WI. Severe storm potential late this afternoon/evening... Last nights MCS has layed-out out an outflow boundary along the WI/IL border early this morning. Persistent southwest flow south of the boundary will help lift this boundary north as an effect warm front through the morning and afternoon. CAMs generally show the boundary stalling along HWY 21 this afternoon with SBCAPES increasing to ~2000 J/kg south of boundary. This will provide the focus for convective initiation this afternoon, around 3-5PM. With cloud layer winds out of the southwest storms will cross over to the cool side of the boundary as they move into Fox Vally and east-central WI. This along with straight and elongated hodographs will lead to a large hail (1-2") threat. A damaging wind threat (gusts up to 60 mph) will also be possible this evening if storms grow upscale. Tornado threat will primarily be focused across southern WI where low-level lapse rates will be steeper beneath an eroding EML, however, any storms that can latch onto the boundary and take advantage of the increased low-leve shear may pose a tornado threat, greatest chance would be south of HWY 10. The greatest uncertainty with the severe threat is the positions of the effective warm front, as a shift further north or south would change the areas of focus for severe storms. Convection will also result in localized heavy rainfall. HREF probs show pockets of 50-70% chances for over 1" of rain across the central and east-central WI. With on-going flooding and saturated soils this will exacerbate both aerial and river flooding concerns. Rain and thunderstorms Wednesday-Monday... A surface low is forecast to lift into the western Great Lakes Wednesday bringing another round of rain and possible thunderstorms. There is uncertainty with how much instability will be able to recover from Tuesday evenings convection. Latest CAMs and ML/AI guidance shunts most of the instability south of the CWA. This would limit the severe threat, however, there is a 25-30% chance for another .5" of rain which would cause any ongoing flood concerns to continue. A more dynamic trough is slated to impact the region late Friday into the weekend bringing additional widespread rainfall and storms. The northward extent of greater instability is somewhat uncertain with this system, impacting severe weather potential, but this will be something to watch in the coming days. Drier and cooler weather is expected behind this system for early next week. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1234 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 West to east oriented cluster of thunderstorms has sunk south of a OSH to MTW line late this evening, however, periodic lightning strikes are being observed across the Fox Valley within the stratiform rain. Lightning activity should start to wane after after 08-09Z. North of the storms cigs have become mainly IFR/LIFR. Expect these low clouds to remain through Tuesday morning at all terminal. Areas of fog and mist are also expected at most terminals through daybreak Tuesday with the lowest vsbys (1/2 to 1SM) across northern WI, including RHI. Dry conditions should prevail Tuesday morning with cigs lifting to MVFR at most terminals. The next round of rain and thunderstorms will lift into central and east-central WI late Tuesday afternoon (after 4PM). The best chance scattered severe storms will be south of an ISW to GRB line with large hail and damaging wind gusts the main hazards. Once storms depart (after 11PM) another round of fog and low clouds is expected into Wednesday morning. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 310 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 MRMS QPE from the last 24-hours shows a maximum of 4.5-5.5 inches of rainfall along an axis from Stevens Point to Bonduel with a more broad swath of 1-3" south of HWY 8. The result has been rapidly rising rivers and streams along with on-going flash flooding. An additional 0.5-1" of rain is expected across this area today which will only exacerbate flooding concerns. Runoff from snow melt in Upper Michigan is also still expected to bring moderate to possibly major flooding on the Menominee River, especially during the mid to late part of the week. If you live near a river or stream, keep a close eye on water levels this week and monitor the latest Flood Warnings from the National Weather Service in Green Bay. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for WIZ013-018>022-030- 031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074. && $$ DISCUSSION.....GK AVIATION.......GK HYDROLOGY......GK  821 FXUS63 KLBF 140813 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 313 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A warm front sharpens across the southern parts of the area today. Increasing chances for rain/thunder will develop to the north of this front late this afternoon and tonight. - Scattered showers linger Wednesday morning. Winds shift to the west to southwest during the afternoon. Elevated to perhaps near- critical fire weather concerns appear they will develop Wednesday afternoon. This is especially true west of Highway 61. - Fire weather concerns will increase Thursday with near critical or critical conditions possible. Additional fire weather concerns are possible Saturday afternoon, and again on Sunday and Monday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 313 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A rather complicated scenario today into tonight regarding precipitation chances. As a shortwave approaches the area, a warm front sharpens near the Nebraska/Kansas border this morning and attempts to lift northward into southern Nebraska. All indications are that it will not make it all the way to I-80, and winds will remain east to northeast to the north of the front. A narrow corridor of pooling moisture is noted just north of the front. Several of the CAMs fire at least some isolated convection in this area around the I-80 corridor late this afternoon. This evening as large scale large scale lift overspreads the area with the approaching wave, showers and isolated thunderstorms should become more numerous to the north of I-80 within an area of strong mid- level FGEN developing from southwest to northeast across the area north of the frontal boundary. MUCAPE/elevated values are on the order of 300-600 J/KG across the southern Sandhills and into southwest Nebraska through this evening. Shear is strong, and could see an isolated strong storm or two that produce small hail. Scattered showers linger though the morning hours Wednesday with the threat over by afternoon. A surface trough will mix eastward with humidity values falling rapidly by afternoon. Fire weather concerns appear they will be elevated to perhaps near-critical for areas west of Highway 83 and especially Highway 61. At this time it does not appear that winds will be strong enough to warrant a Fire Weather Watch, but this will have to be monitored closely. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 313 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A strong upper level trough of low pressure will dive southeast from eastern Washington into southern Idaho Thursday. East of this trough, a deepening surface trough of low pressure will develop from eastern Wyoming into northeastern Colorado. East of this feature, gusty southerly and south-southwesterly winds will develop by Thursday afternoon. Decent low level warm air advection will push highs into the lower 80s across the forecast area. Windy conditions will develop with a high likelihood of wind gusts exceeding 25 MPH per the latest NBM ensemble probabilities. Forecast soundings indicate even higher gust potential Thursday afternoon. The combination of gusty winds and highs in the 80s will lead to near critical to critical fire weather conditions across the area Thursday afternoon. The kicker here will be where the cutoff in low level moisture return resides. The latest EC soln, lifts a tongue of low level moisture into south central and eastern Nebraska Thursday afternoon with a dryline on the western periphery of this moisture tongue. Looking at the latest deterministic NAM12 soln tonight has this feature at 21z Thursday roughly along a line from eastern Frontier county, north-northeast into eastern Custer, then southeastern Holt county. With this location, min RH may be too high for a RFW. West of this line, there appears to be a high likelihood of RFW conditions for most of the forecast area Thursday afternoon. ATTM will continue to highlight this critical fire weather threat in the HWO. The upper level trough will move southeast into northeastern Utah Thursday night, forcing a strong cold front through the forecast area. This feature should pass through the forecast area by 12z Friday. Behind the front, highs Friday will range from the lower 40s in the northwest, to lower 60s in the east. Forcing for precipitation will be most favorable across northwestern portions of the forecast area Friday. This forcing will shift east Friday night into Saturday morning. With lows expected to reach into the 20s Friday night, snow will become the predominant ptype Friday night. Precipitation amounts appear light with this system across the forecast area as NBM ensemble probabilities are generally in the 20 to 30% range for exceedance of 0.10". Even if a tenth of an inch were achieved, any snow accumulations would be under an inch at best. Upper level forcing will quickly shift east of the forecast area Saturday morning. In its wake, gusty northerly winds and very dry boundary layer air will push into the area by Saturday afternoon. Even with forecast highs in the 50s the strong northerly winds and minimum RH of 15 to 20 percent may lead to near critical fire weather conditions Saturday afternoon. Across the western forecast area, the NBM initialized with some isolated pops Saturday afternoon. Looking closer, very steep lapse rates and negative, elevated LI's are present in the western half of the FA (per GFS soln). That being said, decided to leave pops for Saturday afternoon in this forecast package. Ridging will build into the Intermountain West Sunday forcing warmer air east onto the high plains. Highs Sunday will reach into the 60s to lower 70s with 70s to lower 80s for Monday. Dry conditions are expected through Monday with the next possible chance of precipitation late Tuesday/Wednesday-April 21, 22. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1213 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Expect scattered to broken high clouds around 20000 FT AGL to persist into the morning hours Tuesday. Ceilings will lower to around 10000 FT AGL Tuesday afternoon with an increased threat for light rain showers across the area. Scattered coverage is expected and will handle mention with a prob 30 group this evening. Ceilings with the showers should fall off to around 5000 FT AGL. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Taylor LONG TERM...Buttler AVIATION...Buttler  991 FXUS63 KILX 140813 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 313 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - The stretch of warm weather is expected to last through Friday, with daily temperatures climbing near 80 degrees, and at times, the mid-80s. Breezy winds, occasionally reaching 25-35 mph, will accompany this warm period. - This week will be riddled with thunderstorm potential. Today, Wednesday, and Friday currently exhibit the highest probability (15-30%) of severe weather. - There is also potential for substantial accumulative rainfall throughout the week, with our multi-model ensemble predicting a medium (30-50%) chance of exceeding 2 inches through Saturday in areas north of Interstate 72. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 301 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Satellite imagery reveals two key areas of convection this morning. First, a cluster of decaying thunderstorms in central Missouri, as shown by warming cloud tops. The associated convectively-augmented shortwave is anticipated to move eastward along the I-70 corridor into central Illinois later this morning. Second, a persistent area of convection is situated further north over northeast Iowa and southern Wisconsin, near the primary surface boundary, with its outflow boundary slowly advancing southward into northern Illinois. The region situated between these two features remains favorable for renewed thunderstorm development. A strong 40-50 knot low- level jet (LLJ) is present, maintaining a healthy sink of MUCAPE (1500-2000 J/kg). Furthermore, the eastward-tracking convectively-augmented shortwave is expected to boost effective layer shear to nearly 40 knots and sustain favorable mid-level lapse rates. Given this combination of sufficient CAPE, shear, and residual forcing mechanisms, the re-ignition of convection into central and east-central Illinois is considered plausible this morning. Model guidance, specifically the HRRR and RRFS, suggests the potential development of an elevated thunderstorm cluster. If this materializes, the primary convective hazard through mid- morning will be hail. Despite the development of a highly volatile atmosphere this afternoon, featuring surface temperatures in the mid-80s, 60s dewpoints, favorable mid-level lapse rates, an intensifying mid- level jet, and robust SBCAPE (2500-3500 J/kg), the potential for thunderstorms remains low. This is primarily due to a persistent cap, maintained by residual subsidence and marginal mid-level height increases following the morning shortwave. This cap, particularly in the 1-3 km layer, could significantly limit, or even prevent, convective development. Synoptic forcing today appears nebulous, compounding the forecast difficulty: the main surface front is expected to stay north; the location of potential convective outflows is unknown; and no strong shortwave is lifting across the area. This has led to substantial uncertainty in the timing and location of storm initiation, with CAMs struggling to accurately predict storm evolution. However, if updrafts manage to breach the cap later this afternoon or early evening, the environment is primed to support significant-severe convective hazards. The profile is a classic "loaded gun", but the trigger (forcing) is largely missing, or at least unknown at the moment. Regardless of today's convective outcome, the likelihood of widespread convection increases significantly by Wednesday morning. This is expected as a low-level jet axis establishes across the region and a preceding shortwave disturbance ejects ahead of a more potent trough tracking across the lee of the Rockies. Additional rounds of storms are then likely through Wednesday evening as the main trough swings across the Mid-Mississippi Valley. A favorable CAPE/shear environment is anticipated to support elevated supercell and multicell structures over central Illinois throughout the day, capable of producing all severe hazards, including localized heavy rainfall. Thursday looks to be a region-wide break from storms due to synoptic-scale subsidence moving in behind the departing upper trough. Thunderstorm activity is then expected to return over the weekend, specifically Friday night into Saturday. This is associated with a compact shortwave trough lifting across the Mid-Mississippi Valley ahead of a pivoting, more vigorous trough and its accompanying cold front. The CAPE/shear parameter space appears volatile enough to support an organized severe convective risk, even though the front appears to pass during a diurnally unfavorable time. Following the cold frontal passage, temperatures will cool significantly from Saturday night through Monday as the warm, moist air mass from the previous week is flushed out. The latest NBM deterministic guidance supports Sunday afternoon high temperatures near 60 degrees, with overnight lows around 40 degrees. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1205 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A weak disturbance crossing the region late tonight will bring a 1-2 hour window of low -TSRA chances to central IL. The higher probabilities of this occurring are near/north of the I-74 corridor where a PROB30 group was included. Otherwise, as diurnal heating commences, BKN MVFR ceilings are forecast to develop, especially at KPIA-KBMI-KCMI, with lower probabilities to the south. These should rise above 3k feet by midday. An isolated storm can't be ruled out this afternoon but probabilities are too low to mention in the TAF. Southwest winds will remain gusty through the period, near 25 kt at times. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 307 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 RECORD HIGHS FOR 4/14: PEORIA: 86 (2024) SPRINGFIELD: 89 (2006) LINCOLN: 87 (2006) NORMAL: 84 (2006) URBANA: 84 (2010) DECATUR: 88 (1941) FORECAST HIGHS FOR 4/14/2026: PEORIA: 84 SPRINGFIELD: 87 LINCOLN: 86 NORMAL: 84 URBANA: 84 DECATUR: 85 && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...MJA DISCUSSION...MJA AVIATION...25 CLIMATE...25/MJA  207 FXUS61 KCTP 140816 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 416 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Slight Risk severe weather outlook introduced for Wednesday north of PA Turnpike && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Summerlike warmth visits the region this week with near-record daily maxes and daily mins on tap for Wednesday and Thursday. 2) Several periods of showers and thunderstorms expected during the upcoming week, with the greatest amount of rainfall likely occurring across northern and western PA. Some storms may be severe, particularly on Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Summerlike warmth visits the region this week with near-record daily maxes and daily mins on tap for Wednesday and Thursday. Ensemble prediction systems are in good agreement showing a mean upper-level trough across the western CONUS, with downstream upper ridging taking hold from the Gulf states up the eastern seaboard. This will bring a notable warming trend, with daily highs ranging from the 70s-mid 80s across central PA from Tuesday onward. The latest forecast brings near-record temperatures across the region Wednesday morning through Friday morning, with lows both Wednesday and Thursday morning forecast to be warmer than our average highs this time of year (25 to 30 deg F above normal). Highs in the 70s and 80s will accompany lows in the 50s and 60s. Dewpoints will start to approach the 60F mark, so it will feel a bit humid but not overly uncomfortable. ---------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 2: Several periods of showers and thunderstorms expected during the upcoming week, with the greatest amount of rainfall likely occurring across northern and western PA. Some storms may be severe, particularly on Wednesday. In general for the workweek ahead, the storm track will run from SW to NE across the Great Lakes, with several waves of low pressure drifting into Ontario, CA. A frontal boundary will set up generally west to east across New York and keep unsettled weather in place across northwest PA in particular. For Tuesday, SPC has expanded the MRGL Risk for SVR TSRA to include all of central PA for the afternoon and evening as a 35 to 40 kt WSW LLVL wind max will be present during peak heating as remnants of an MCS approach from the NW. With SBCAPE fcst in the 500-1000J/kg range, renewed convection is likely to initiate with a marginal threat of damaging winds. The severe weather outlook climbs to Slight Risk for Wednesday, fueled in part by increasing low level heat and humidity as dewpoints rise to near 60F. Cool temps aloft will result in steep lapse rates with SBCAPE progged above 1000J/kg across much of central PA. With about 30 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear, discrete cells and clusters/linear segments will be possible. Over the course of the workweek, the probability for showers/storms will be highest in northwest PA. Locations that have been wet lately will continue to see more rain with 1-2 inches expected by Friday, while drought-stricken locations across the southeast part of our CWA will see less rainfall. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The best chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms for the rest of the night will be at BFD, with the bulk of the activity expected to remain north of UNV and west of IPT. VFR conditions are favored at all TAF sites through 12Z this morning, but there is a low chance of MVFR ceilings at BFD and JST. The better chance for MVFR ceilings at BFD will come after 12Z. The next round of showers and thunderstorms is expected for the afternoon and evening. PROB30s for -SHRA/-TSRA have been included at all TAF sites to highlight this threat. There is still some uncertainty regarding the timing and coverage of these storms, so this part of the forecast will need to be refined with upcoming TAF issuances. These storms will be capable of producing strong wind gusts, potentially in excess of 40 knots. Winds outside of thunderstorms will be out of the west-southwest at 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 20 to 25 knots likely. Another round of showers and storms appears likely to move into the region from the northwest after 06Z Wednesday. Surface winds will decrease to less than 10 knots after sunset, but winds around 2000 feet will strengthen to around 40 knots over southwestern PA. This will bring a period of LLWS to JST and AOO. Outlook... Wed-Thu...VFR most of the time, but brief restrictions possible in hit and miss showers and thunderstorms, mainly across the north and west. Fri...Restrictions possible early, then improving to VFR in the afternoon. Sat...Restrictions in SHRA early, drier conditions late. && .CLIMATE... Record high daily maxes and mins are possible this week as summerlike warmth visits the region. Here's a look at the records as they stand right now, with a * indicating that the forecast is equal to or greater than the record. Record High Daily Max / Daily Min... For Harrisburg: April 15: 87* (1941) / 61* (2023) April 16: 89 (2002) / 63* (1941) April 17: 91 (2002) / 60* (2002) For Williamsport: April 15: 86 (1994) / 57* (2023) April 16: 90 (2002) / 55* (2023) April 17: 91 (2002) / 58* (1896) && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Colbert KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl/Colbert DISCUSSION...Steinbugl/Colbert AVIATION...Bauco CLIMATE...Colbert  336 FXUS64 KHUN 140823 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 323 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New NEAR TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 323 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Low relative humidity values, dry fuels, and gusty winds will result in elevated fire weather conditions today through Wednesday. - There are medium chances (30-50%) of showers and storms on Thursday. - Medium chances (30-60%) of showers and storms return on Saturday. && .NEAR TERM... (Today) Issued at 323 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Mostly clear conditions early this morning, save for a few bands of cirrus passing overhead. With high pressure to the southeast of the region, a broad area of southwesterly flow will redevelop today, reinforcing this very warm air mass. The combination of ample sunshine and these southwesterly winds will push high temperatures into the mid to upper 80s, just a couple degrees below record highs at HSV and MSL (89 degrees in 2017 and 1936 respectively). These very warm temperatures and dewpoints in the upper 40s to mid 50s will knock Min RH values into the 25-35 percent range in most locations by this afternoon. Thankfully, winds will generally be lighter and in the 5-10 MPH range, but a few localized gusts to 15 MPH may occur in the afternoon. Given the very dry fuels, this may result in localized elevated fire weather conditions and caution continues to be urged. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday Night through Thursday Night) Issued at 1052 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Upper level ridging over the region and surface high pressure over the Deep South will maintain their hold through Wednesday. By Thursday morning, both of these features will be shunted to the east as an upper shortwave digs over the Mississippi Valley towards the Ohio Valley and a surface low pressure system from the central Plains slides into the Midwest. A cold front associated with this system may approach the Tennessee Valley during the day and bring medium chances (30-50%) of showers and storms to the local area, mainly for northwest Alabama and up into southern middle Tennessee. There is still a bit of uncertainty with how far south the front will travel and where the best upper dynamics will be for any strong to severe storm potential. At this point, confidence is low in any strong to severe storms for north Alabama and southern middle Tennessee but this will be monitored. As for the much needed rainfall, looking probabilistically, there is a very low chance (10-20%) for areas over southern middle Tennessee and west of I-65 in Alabama to receive greater than a quarter of an inch of rain Thursday evening. Locations farther east have an even lesser chance. Therefore, confidence is low that we receive much rainfall at all on Thursday. However, this won't be our only chance at rain this week. Better chances look to be over this next weekend, so stay tuned and read more below in the Long Term section! As for temperatures through Thursday night, it will continue to be warm with highs generally in the mid 80s and lows in the 60s. Taking a look at record temperatures for April 15th to provide some context, the record highs are 88 degrees for Huntsville and 89 degrees at Muscle Shoals (both set in 2006). Keep that in mind if you have outdoor activities on Wednesday and remember heat safety! Drink plenty of water and take frequent breaks in the shade! Before moisture increases on Thursday ahead of the aforementioned surface front, the dry conditions mentioned in the short term will persist into Wednesday. Relative humidity values are forecast to drop into the upper 20 to lower 30 percent range during the day. In addition, it will also be breezy with another day of southwesterly winds around 10-15 mph and gusts to 15-20 mph. Therefore, elevated fire weather concerns will persist. Please be cautious as any fires that develop will likely spread more rapidly than expected! && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 1052 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 The extended forecast period will begin with a continuation of warm/dry conditions, as a 500-mb ridge builds northeastward in the wake of a low amplitude shortwave trough and weak surface low tracking eastward across the northern Mid-Atlantic states. With only a few high-based cumulus anticipated beneath a strengthening mid- level inversion and light SSW flow in the low-levels, most valley locations will experience highs in the u80s-l90s. Low-level flow will begin to increase on Friday evening as a deepening vort max (embedded within the base of a broader trough extending from southern Canada into the northern Plains) begins to eject northeastward into the MO Valley, resulting in development of a frontal wave that will lift northeastward from KS into WI by 12Z Saturday. Latest model guidance suggests that both the mid-level wave and surface low will undergo substantial intensification as they progress further northeastward into eastern OT/western QC by 12Z Sunday, with showers and thunderstorms expected to develop along the length of the trailing cold front and perhaps a prefrontal surface trough (from IL/IN into the northwestern Gulf Coast) Saturday afternoon. As the cold front begins to overtake the surface trough across the TN Valley Saturday evening, chances for much needed rainfall will increase across our forecast area, but there remains a large amount of uncertainty regarding rainfall amounts (ranging from around 0.05-0.10" as a worst case scenario to 0.5-0.75" as a best case scenario). This is likely due to the combination of substantial amount of lingering CINH noted in forecast soundings and a narrow plume of modified Gulf moisture which will only overspread the entire region immediately in advance of the front. Should the low/mid-level thermodynamic profile improve, rainfall amounts would likely be closer to the best case scenario, and a few strong storms capable of producing gusty winds would also be probable given sufficiently strong WSW flow aloft (45-55 knots) for updraft organization. Regardless, the front appears as if it will be exiting our region early Sunday morning, with any lingering precipitation ending in our southeastern zones around 12Z Sunday. A cooler/drier continental airmass will overspread the region for the remainder of the period, featuring highs in the u60s-l70s Sunday and overnight lows in the l-m 40s Monday morning. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1147 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the period with a mostly clear sky. Winds may become gusty out of the SSW/SW this afternoon between 10-15 kts, before weakening after sunset. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...AMP.24 SHORT TERM....26 LONG TERM....70 AVIATION...AMP  149 FXUS65 KRIW 140829 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 229 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Low pressure passing by will bring a low chance for showers again today, mainly for the western mountains, the Bighorns, and Casper Mountain. Accumulations will be minimal. - A more potent late winter system sweeps into Western Wyoming starting Wednesday and continuing through Friday. Ample cold temperatures will bring snowfall to most of the region, including lower elevations. - A hard freeze is expected east of the Divide Thursday night and Friday night. The likelihood of temperatures falling below 28 degrees is high (>90%), with temperatures possibly falling into the teens. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 145 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Finally a more active pattern across Wyoming trying to bring precipitation! The latest system is a trough ejecting into the central Plains from the Sour Corners region. This system is set a little too far south to bring a significant amount of precip, but still enough energy to produce precip for areas of Casper Mountain, the Bighorns, and higher elevations of the Tetons. But this does set the table for a potent late winter storm diving out of the PacNW into the northern Rockies. This system starts to spread precip into the NW mountains during the day Wednesday before slowly moving east Thursday and Friday. The system will be accompanied by ample moisture, so the potential for meaningful accumulations is improving. The system will also be accompanied by a strong push of colder air, so most precip will be snowfall, especially Thursday night into Friday. This includes most of the lower elevations as well, with the current forecast totals of 2 to 5 inches. Winter Storm Watches have been posted for the northwestern Mountains and YNP for this system, and may need to be expanded is the snow forecast increases with later updates. The other concern with this next system is the significant cold air push coming with and behind the next system. Cold temperatures will arrive during the day Thursday, with lows Thursday night in the low to mid 20s east of the Divide and in the teens west of the Divide. The main core of the cold air then settles in on Friday, with the core of the cold air setting in Friday night. Probabilities of temperatures falling below 28 degrees are high (>90%), with current forecast lows reaching the teens. The complicating factor will be how quickly cloud cover clears out behind the weather system, allowing for radiational cooling. If clouds hold longer, these teens would likely not be achieved. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1027 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 West of the Divide...KJAC/KRKS/KPNA/KBPI Terminals A tight, compact shortwave along the western Wyoming border rotates eastward overnight. The leading edge of this shortwave produced a two-hour period of intense snowfall at KJAC, but these are beginning to fade late Monday evening. Isolated snow showers, producing intermittent IFR/MVFR conditions come to an end early in the period as the shortwave fizzles and heads east. However, the now moistened boundary layer could lead to widespread IFR/MVFR ceilings and patchy fog at KJAC overnight and into Tuesday morning. Ceilings gradually rise to VFR after sunrise Tuesday and improve further around midday. A few showers skirt southern Wyoming in the vicinity of KRKS until sunrise Tuesday. All other terminals to be VFR. West-northwest surface wind 12-22kts develops around 19Z/Tuesday at all terminals except KJAC, where a southwest wind 8-11kts begins around midday. All winds decrease between 01Z-02Z/Tuesday. Mountain tops obscured across northwest Wyoming until 20Z/Tuesday. East of the Divide...KCPR/KCOD/KRIW/KLND/KWRL Terminals All terminals to be VFR through the period. Surface wind speeds Tuesday are to be much less than those of the previous few days. After a morning lull, westerly wind 15-25kts mixes to the surface at KCOD between 20Z-22Z/Tuesday, with KRIW seeing west-northwest surface wind 15-25kts developing around 23Z/Tuesday. Otherwise, speeds remain 11kts or less at other terminals. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZLC and ZDV for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday evening through late Thursday night for WYZ001-002-012. && $$ DISCUSSION...Straub AVIATION...CNJ  974 FXUS63 KLOT 140829 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 329 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Late spring to summer-like temperatures will continue through Friday with highs in the 70s and 80s and lows in the 60s. - Several additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms, including a threat for severe weather and flooding expected, especially late this afternoon/evening and again on Wednesday. - A brief break in the pattern is expected late Thursday into or through the day on Friday before another storm system arrives in the Friday evening to Saturday timeframe. - In the wake of the Saturday cold front, a brief, potentially sharp, shot of much cooler air could bring frost/freeze concerns into next Sunday and Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 328 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Today through Wednesday Night: A weakening MCS will continue drifting across northern Illinois through this morning in a weakening phase with a gusty outflow boundary surging out ahead of it. The OFB passage may bring a temporary period of onshore winds and notably cooler conditions to portions of the lakeshore (especially far NE IL) and perhaps patchy fog as well. Towards and after sunrise this morning, a question will be the extent to which widely scattered elevated convection (showers and isolated non-severe storms) may develop with southward extent behind the outflow boundary. Once any convection this morning fades out, expect the rest of the morning and into the early afternoon to be dry as the area once again becomes capped underneath a strong EML (elevated mixed layer) inversion. A likely key player the rest of this afternoon for the looming PM severe threat will be how far south the outflow boundary from the weakening MCS reaches, before retreating back north as an effective warm front. A farther south remnant outflow boundary could conceivably aid in a bit farther south convective initiation (CI) near the stalled warm front this afternoon than depicted verbatim by most of the CAM guidance. On the other hand, low clouds shifting southward in the wake of the OFB this morning will serve to limit insolation initially, potentially delaying stronger destabilization until the mid afternoon. Conceptually, the area to monitor for explosive CI this afternoon will in closer proximity to the stalled warm front (as previously noted), from northwest Illinois and northeast Iowa into southern Wisconsin. Satellite, observational, and mesoanalysis trends will need to monitored closely for any subtle 700 mb impulses that could help erode the cap as early as 3-5pm. A secondary possible area to watch for isolated storms by the mid to late afternoon will be into portions of central IL as a 500 mb vort lobe translates east-northeast. Ultimately, the lack of stronger large scale forcing (neutral h5 height tendencies) casts some uncertainty/conditionality to this setup. An ensemble of recent CAM solutions does suggest a realistic play for the daylight hours remaining dry across our CWA counties. With the OFB placement wildcard and possibility that subtle upstream impulses can sufficiently erode the cap, we maintained (30-50%) chance PoPs as early as 3-5 PM over the northwest 1/3 to 1/2 of the CWA, and stair-stepping gradually south from there. Once clouds scatter enough early this afternoon, several hours of diurnal heating and destabilization of the moist (dew points in the 60s) low-level air mass topped by very steep lapse rates aloft will yield a very favorable thermodynamic environment for severe storms (MLCAPE possibly at or bit upward of 3k J/kg). In the presence of about 40 kt of deep layer bulk shear, this will be a conditionally volatile environment for supercells capable of very large hail (2"+). If CI occurs into the CWA prior to sunset, somewhat weaker low-level flow and storm relative inflow (especially if sfc winds remain veered) would indeed favor damaging to potentially destructive hail as a primary threat initially. As the low-level jet diurnally intensifies into this evening, a notable tornado threat could also unfold into northeast IA, southern WI, and possibly far northern IL, given enlarged low- level hodographs. Any locally backed surface winds would further enhance SRH. With the above being said, despite the 3/5 severe threat level (enhanced risk) for locations north of I-80 today-tonight (Tuesday-Tuesday night), our confidence is a bit lower in storms effectively tapping into the volatile environment today within our CWA. A later after sunset arrival into far northern Illinois and mid-late evening farther south would give some time for instability to wane. Also, the relatively parallel alignment of the deep layer shear vector to the warm front should lead to a storm mode transition from supercells to upscale growth into forward propagating segments through the evening. Mismatched west-southwesterly 850-300 mb flow vs. propagation vectors towards the east-southeast may limit how far south and east an appreciable damaging wind (and embedded QLCS type tornado threat can reach). All in all, the area of greatest concern for potential significant severe weather is well outlined by the zone of 10% tornado probs in SPC's day 1 outlook, approximately near and north of a Dixon to Highland Park IL line. Additional storms should eventually fill in behind the evening activity overnight, favoring our highest official PoPs of the night into the 60-70% range. Hydrology may become an increased concern later tonight, particularly if repeated rounds of storms move over the same area. If this occurs, a notable threat of flash flooding will materialize, perhaps more than implied by a flood threat level of 1/4 (marginal risk) in WPC's excessive rainfall outlook. Exactly how the event will play out through tonight remains quite uncertain. With so much riding on the effects of prior convection into Wednesday morning, little can be gleaned about Wednesday PM's threat for strong to severe storms with any sort of confidence. It looks quite messy/muddled and we won't be able to sort things out until more is known about the environmental evolution. A 2/5 threat level (slight risk) remains targeted for areas northwest of I-55 in SPC's initial day 2 outlook, with a level 1/5 (marginal risk) I-55 and southeast, including Chicago. At present, independent of where any corridors of severe storms set up, likely veered surface winds, modest low-level flow just off the deck, and mid-level lapse rates not quite as steep, seem to point towards damaging winds as the primary threat after any initial hail threat. Mesoscale evolution may yield a localized enhanced tornado threat, as per the outlook discussion. Castro/KJB Thursday through Monday: There's variance regarding the progression of a cold front across the region, with some of the slower solutions holding onto some potential for storms into Thursday afternoon (particularly southeast ~1/2 of CWA). Thereafter, into Thursday night and at least the start of Friday, ensemble model guidance advertises a brief break in the stormy pattern as shortwave ridging moves through the Great Lakes ahead of a substantial trough digging into the central US. High temperatures look to rebound into the low to even mid 80s by Friday accompanied by another potential threat for strong to severe thunderstorms Friday night into Saturday. Thereafter, there is a reasonably strong signal in ensemble guidance for a cooldown to start next week. The key aspect for the weekend into early next week cooldown is a recent trend towards a much cooler air mass due to trough amplification over the region. If this comes to pass, parts of the area may flirt with sub-freezing temperatures Saturday night into early Sunday, and again Sunday night into next Monday morning. With the summer-like warmth and rain this week supercharging plant growth and leaf out, the magnitude of the weekend cold shot will be one to watch for agricultural interests. Castro/Borchardt && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1249 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Key messages for the 06Z TAF period: * Gusty southwest winds and LLWS overnight. * A period of gusty SHRA and embedded TS early this morning. * Winds may shift to north-northeast behind an outflow boundary with the SHRA/TS, SE/ESE for a time this morning, before returning to southwesterly. * MVFR CIGs after sunrise until early afternoon. * Additional TSRA expected Tuesday late afternoon into night. Low confidence on exact timing and coverage. A weakening line of showers and embedded thunderstorms should move across the TAF sites early this morning until just after sunrise. Main window of opportunity is 08 to 12Z at RFD and 09 to 13Z in Chicago. If the convection doesn't weaken too much, heavy rainfall and vsby reductions down to MVFR may occur. An southward shifting outflow boundary near the northern MKE suburbs as of this writing may get an assist to surge south as severe storms to the west intersect it. Concern here is for a period of onshore winds (possibly gusty at initially) at the Chicago terminals before returning to southwest by mid morning. MVFR CIGs will likely settle overhead during or just after the rain and persist through the morning Tuesday. Guidance has trended later in the day with a return to VFR with early afternoon now favored. Additional thunderstorms are expected over the airspace later Tuesday, as early as late afternoon with higher chances during the evening and night. Confidence is low on the exact timing and coverage of storms at the terminals, and PROB30s in the latest TAFs correspond to the windows of seemingly greatest potential. However, storms are a possibility anytime after mid-afternoon through the overnight. Severe weather will be possible if TS impact any terminals in the late afternoon-early evening. SW winds will regularly gust between 25 and 30 kt through the pre-dawn hours today, along with LLWS due to ~60 kt winds at about 2kft AGL. Expect SW winds gusting between 20 and 25 kt during the day on Tuesday. Direction could get squirrelly in the vicinity of storms both early this morning (as noted earlier) and again this evening through the overnight. Doom/Castro && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for the IL and IN nearshore waters. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago  904 FXUS63 KBIS 140830 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 330 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light precpitation exits to the northeast through the morning. Low chance of light rain across the south overnight. - Mainly dry and warmer today and Wednesday. - Wide range in temperatures from northwest to southeast Thursday as a cold front pushes into the state. - Significant cool down for the end of the week, with medium chances for rain and snow. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The remnants of precpitation overnight continue to exit to the northeast with the inciting low pressure center this morning. While still mainly falling as light rain, some snow may become mixed into this is precpitation in the Turtle Mountains area as cooler air wraps around the low. Little to no snow accumulation is expected. Low stratus and some patchy fog lingers behind the rain, though both are expected to clear from west to east through through the mid morning. Lows are broadly in the 30s to lower 40s. Near zonal to slightly southwesterly flow is expected over the northern Plains as another transient shortwave / closed low cross the region. Short term deterministic models continue to nudge the track of this low slightly further and further north over the past few forecast cycles, skimming across our southern counties late this afternoon and overnight. With this more northerly track, there is some potential for light precpitation across portions of the northwest and north central during this period. An interrogation of BUFKIT model soundings across the south this evening reveals a fairly dry layer near surface layer than any precpitation that does form would need to overcome, thus have opted to limit precpitation to a very low chance (<20 percent). Otherwise, cloud cover across the south central might be a little slow to clear out through today compared to the north and far west with this shortwave. Highs this afternoon are above normal by around 5 to 10 degrees, forecast broadly in the mid 50s east to mid 60s west. Lows tonight are expected to be in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Dry and warm conditions linger through Wednesday, with highs peaking well into the 60s to lower 70s across the forecast area. Flow over the northern Plains is expected to turn increasingly southwesterly through late Wednesday and through the day Thursday as closed upper level Pacific trough and associated surface low makes it way across southwestern Canada. As the influence of this low complex increases through the day on Thursday, a fairly stark gradient in high temperatures is expected in the afternoon, from the lower 40s across the north up to the mid 70s in the far south central. Chances for precpitation will also increase from northwest to southeast through the day Thursday, becoming likely overnight through Friday morning. The ensemble continues to advertise a general transition from mostly rain Thursday to a rain-snow mix or all snow overnight into Friday as the cold front associated with the low complex digs across the forecast area. There remains some disagreement about when and where this transition occurs, with a slight majority of clusters (55 percent) favoring a slightly slower evolution of the system, allowing for a greater amount of the precpitation associated with this wave to fall during the coolest period of the night. With this, light snow accumulations up to an inch or two are possible across much of western and central North Dakota, though the highest amounts would be along the International Border. A minority cluster (45 percent) favors a slightly quicker low, allowing for the bulk of precpitation across the west and south to fall mainly as rain. In this scenario, light snow accumulations would mainly be limited to the far north central. In either scenario, this snow isn't expected to be impactful, or last on the ground very long at all. Otherwise, breezy to windy conditions are expected both Thursday and Friday as a sharp pressure gradient develops across the forecast area. With these winds being gradient driven, we don't expect these winds to be overly impactful, perhaps near advisory at best across portions of the southwest. This thinking is backed by the lack of any highlight in the EFI during this period. Below normal highs in the 30s and 40s can be anticipated both Friday and Saturday with the much cooler airmass situated over the northern Plains, before a developing longwave ridge across much of the western CONUS will help warming temperatures return late in the weekend into early next week. There remains a decent amount of disagreement within the ensemble on timing, resulting in a 15 to 20 degree spread in highs Monday and Tuesday, but all clusters appear to resolve in a brief blocking pattern setting up early next week. With this, dry conditions can also be anticipated during this period. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Variable ceilings can be found across western and central North Dakota to begin the 06Z TAF period. While low stratus generally continues to promote IFR to LIFR ceilings at most terminals, areas of showers moving across the area have promoted improvements to MVFR to even VFR ceilings on their onset at any given TAF site. As showers move off to the northeast overnight, a rapid return to lower ceilings can be anticipated, with some patchy fog possible. A general improvement of ceilings back to VFR conditions are is expected from west to east late this morning through early this afternoon. Winds are expected to remain around 10 kts or less through much of the period, turning out of the east tonight to the west through this morning and afternoon, then out of the south through this evening and the end of the TAF period. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Adam AVIATION...Adam  256 FXUS63 KFSD 140831 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 331 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy and locally dense fog continues through this morning. Visibility below one mile in dense fog. Fog dissipates later this morning. - Periodic chances (20-60%) for showers and thunderstorms continue this week. Isolated strong to severe storms are possible late this afternoon through Wednesday east of Iowa/Minnesota Highway 60, although confidence is low in potential. - Elevated to near critical fire danger is expected Thursday with a break from rainfall, much warmer temperatures, strong winds, and low humidity. Winds may lead to elevated conditions Friday, although shower and storm chances may temper concerns. && .UPDATE... Issued at 329 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Fog and very low stratus continue to develop early this morning. So far, most visibility has remained above 2 miles outside the Chamberlain area (where visibility at the time of the discussion is down to around 1/4 SM). Model probabilities do show moderate (30- 60%) chances areas along the Buffalo Ridge and across northwestern IA to fall below 1 mile through this morning so will continue to monitor for potential headlines. Fog should mix out through the morning hours. Also seeing some returns on radar out across central SD, but have not seen any precipitation reports, likely due to the stout dry layer between the mid clouds and the surface/stratus. Forecast remains on track for the rest of today and into Wednesday. SPC has expanded the Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk back toward IA/MN State Hwy 60 for both today and Wednesday. Some uncertainty in development and timing, as guidance still mostly keeps the better forcing off to the southeast. However, recent runs of larger scale deterministic models are shifting the surface and low level fronts further north today, shifting that instability axis with it. Additionally, storms will need to overcome the cap once again. Storms late today may move out of eastern NE into our forecast area, and would be capable of large hail to 1.5 inches (ping-pong ball sized) and wind gusts to 65 mph. If there is a low level or surface boundary in play, a tornado is possible. Can't rule out a stronger storm into Tuesday night. For Wednesday, will have to wait and see how today plays out with convection with the better instability again off to our south and east. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 238 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Scattered thunderstorms are set to develop over the next few hours, bringing the potential for a few severe storms with large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two. As of 2 pm, a surface low is located over northern Nebraska with a warm front extending northeast of it across far southeastern South Dakota into northwest Iowa. Dew points in the 60s have been gradually spreading northward, and these higher dew points are expected to reach the I-90 corridor over the next couple of hours. This boundary will be the focus of initial storm development, with these storms having access to 35-50 kts of effective bulk shear and 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. There are questions though on how much some high clouds have limited the area from reaching full heating potential, but if a storm can get going then steep mid level lapse rates of 7.5-8.5 degrees C/km and mostly straight, elongated hodographs will favor large hail to around 2 inches in diameter or larger. The secondary threat will be damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph. If a storm can get rooted to the aforementioned surface warm front, then a tornado or two will also be possible. Can't rule out a strong tornado either, primarily over southwest Minnesota. As the low pressure system drift across the area, a few additional showers and storms look to develop farther south across northwest Iowa (down to about IA Highway-3, or just north of US Highway-20) within the warm sector around sunset. These storms could also be on the strong to severe side, with an isolated instance of quarter sized hail and 60 mph as the threats. Showers and storms will exit off to our east by the mid evening hours, leaving mostly quiet conditions in its wake. A few showers may develop in central South Dakota prior to daybreak Tuesday, but dry air should win out and prevent most if not all of this from reaching the ground. Patchy fog will also be possible by early Tuesday morning across portions of northwest Iowa and southwest Minnesota as winds turn light and variable overnight and ample moisture remains in place. Temperatures tonight drop mainly in the 40s, though some 50s are possible in our easternmost areas. Low chances for showers continue into the day on Tuesday, but activity is expected to remain spotty at best as rain continues to battle a dry sub cloud layer. Highs will range from the 60s northwest to 70s southeast. Rain chances look to increase Tuesday night into Wednesday as two shortwave troughs impact our area. The best chances of rain and storms look to be over northwest Iowa and adjacent areas of Nebraska, South Dakota, and Minnesota. At this time, severe weather looks unlikely with this system as the better instability looks to be off to our south and east. Rain and storms exit off to our east by Wednesday night, leading to a dry Thursday. Winds look to increase on Thursday especially west of I-29 closer to a deepening surface low, and winds may take on a southwesterly component especially in south central South Dakota. This could lead to another day with higher fire danger as temperatures will be warm and relative humidity values drop to 25% or below mainly along and west of the James River. Still some uncertainty into how breezy the winds will be, so keep up to date with the latest forecast. Not too much time to look into the extended forecast given the near term severe weather threat, but guidance is in fairly good agreement that the western trough will begin to move into our area by the end of the work week/early weekend. This could bring more rain and storms to our area on Friday and then colder weather into Saturday as guidance indicates a stronger push of cold air advection behind this system. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1156 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Mainly VFR conditions with occasional MVFR to IFR vsbys are expected this TAF period. Taking a look at satellite imagery, most clear conditions persist tonight. While these conditions should persist for the next few hours, developing fog across northwestern IA and potentially our River Valleys could lead to occasional MVFR to IFR vsbys especially as locally dense patches develop. Otherwise, should any fog gradually erode by mid-morning on Tuesday. Light northerly to northwesterly winds will persist for most of the day. Lastly, a few light sprinkles to showers will be possible near KHON by Tuesday afternoon. However, confidence is too low (<30%) to include in the TAF at this time. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...SG DISCUSSION...Samet AVIATION...05  604 FXUS63 KDMX 140839 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 339 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered severe storms (Level 3 of 5) mainly across east- central Iowa this afternoon/evening. All severe weather hazards remain possible. More widespread storms and locally heavy rainfall expected tonight, especially over the southern half of Iowa. - Additional rounds of severe storms and locally heavy rainfall still expected on Wednesday (eastern half of Iowa) and again on Friday (much of Iowa). Details on those events will be fine tuned in future days. - Warm and breezy today through Friday with highs in the 70s and 80s. Much cooler readings in the 40s and 50s by this weekend, hard freeze likely north. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 251 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Day 2 of the active convective weather week, here we go: Today...Highest Severe Threat: East-central Iowa. Timing: Scattered activity late afternoon/evening, more widespread coverage overnight, especially south half of Iowa. Persistent upper pattern remains locked in over the upper Midwest with a broad southwest flow aloft with several weak embedded shortwaves. As expected, the sfc low has shifted swd over KS/NE and will deepen slightly today with model consensus around 998mb by 00z Wed. The attendant sfc front will extend newd from the low across southeast NE, through central IA, and into the Great Lakes region. With the plume of anomalous low level moisture in place, moderate to strong instability, steep mid level lapse rates, and strong winds aloft /0-6km shear of 50-60kts/ would again support supercell development and all convective hazards should this parameter space be realized. The SPC Day 1 Outlook remains largely unchanged with an Enhanced Risk (Level 3 of 5) across east-central Iowa, with lower probabilities south/north. Examining the latest guidance here are the key points worth mentioning and monitoring. 1) Capping - WAA in the 900-700mb layer will maintain the EML, with model soundings continuing to show moderate MLCIN. The question is whether low level convergence along the front and weak H5 height falls can provide enough lift to erode the cap and allow for CI. Some of the 00Z/14 CAMS struggle to initiate storms in the DMX area during the afternoon and evening, with storm coverage possibly higher in far eastern IA. 2) Some guidance /HRRR and RAP/ indicate a pseudo dryline feature pushing quickly eastward across central IA during the day dropping Tds into the 40s and 50s as far east as I-35. Other guidance /NAM, RRFS, ECMWF/ is not as aggressive with the dryline feature. Should this occur, the drier air could impact CI, storm mode and hazards - lesser TOR threat with higher LCLs. Bottom line, now is not the time to let our guard down. The CAMs yesterday under did storm coverage, and this could happen again. We'll provide updates as the day unfolds and details become clearer. Tonight...regardless of what happens during the day, there is higher confidence that a 40-50kt LLJ will restrengthen after 03Z tonight. This will result in strong moisture convergence and hence widespread convection over at least the southern half the CWA. Soundings indicate that these storms are likely to be elevated with the primary threats hail, perhaps wind if a cluster can organize, and locally heavy rainfall /20% to 40% chance of 1" or greater/. This will likely be a messy mode, with lots of storm interactions and mergers. Wednesday...As noted in previous discussions, the convective evolution today and tonight will strongly influence what happens tomorrow, especially in term of warm sector recovery and position of frontal boundaries. What we do know is that another more potent upper shortwave will lift newd through the upper Midwest on Wednesday, inducing yet another sfc low to move through Iowa. Timing, position, and movement of the sfc features will be critical to the convective evolution. One camp of models has the sfc low moving more quickly ewd /e.g. NAM/ which could keep most activity east of this forecast area. The other global models tend to be slower with the evolution, which would move the sfc low and triple point through Iowa during peak heating. Should this occur, robust storm development, including supercells would again be possible, assuming sufficient destabilizaton. Again, specific details regarding the low level wind profiles, moisture content and LCLs, etc, will have an impact on the things like the tornado potential. The SPC has maintained the Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for now and agree that is reasonable pending the details noted above. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 251 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Will keep this discussion brief per the events above. In the wake of Wednesday's system, a brief period of shortwave ridging should move into the region, yielding a "lull" in the action on Thursday. This respite will be short lived however, as the strongest and most amplified upper trough/closed low moves towards the region on Friday. A broad, elongated sfc low developing over the High Plains will re-induce a strong southerly flow over Iowa with a warm and humid airmass surging back northward. Another round of severe storms is looking likely on Friday along strong cold front that will move quickly from west to east across the region. In fact, the SPC has increased severe probabilities to 30% on Day 4 for this reason, as clearly storm development will not be an issue with such a dynamic system. As the storms and cold front move east of the state Friday night, colder air will wrap in behind the departing low and cannot rule out some snowflakes in northern portions of the state early Saturday. Temperatures will tumble into the 40s and 50s with breezy winds from the northwest on Saturday as well. As noted previously, we'll have to keep an eye out for a hard freeze on Saturday night, especially across northern Iowa. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1110 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 MVFR stratus and fog will again be possible across the north over the next 8 hours, have trended worse on conditions given conditions seen yesterday morning. Adjusted prob30 groups and added prevailing groups for showers and storms tomorrow afternoon. Highest confidence in storms at KALO. Additional storms possible near the end of the TAF period, highest confidence at KOTM at this time. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 239 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Multiple rounds of seasonally moderate to heavy rain this week will lead to renewed flooding concerns. Presently the main concern will be possible renewed or additional river flooding. Output from the GFS- and NBM-forced medium-range National Water Model (NWM) and the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System (HEFS) suggest the most likely scenario will be moderate to significant within-bank rises on many rivers and streams, especially across the southeast half of the CWA over the next week. A few locations may see minor river flooding as well. These rises will be due to the additive effect of multiple rounds of rainfall. If rainfall is higher than presently forecast then the risk of several locations seeing minor flooding and a few locations seeing moderate flooding will increase. Flash flooding is less of a concern than river flooding, however the risk is nonzero. The most likely scenario will be ponding of water or low-end flash flooding especially in urban areas or areas that receive repeated heavy rainfall over a relatively short time period. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Fowle LONG TERM...Fowle AVIATION...Jimenez HYDROLOGY...Zogg  716 FXUS65 KVEF 140847 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 147 AM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Clear skies and warming temperatures expected Wednesday and Thursday with gusty winds and cool temperatures return late-week. && .DISCUSSION...Today through Monday. This morning, very light radar returns continue across far southern Nevada and far northwestern Arizona. As the associated area of low pressure continues to push eastward, skies will clear behind it, allowing for a mostly sunny Tuesday. Minor ridging sets up today and Wednesday, allowing temperatures to increase back toward seasonal normals. This will be brief, though, as a closed area of low pressure is expected to drop through the southern Great Basin from the Gulf of Alaska late-week. This system has cold origins, and as a result, will bring along with it a stark temperature drop as its cold front pushes through the region. Along with a drop in temperatures, gusty pre-frontal southwest winds can be expected areawide on Thursday, with wind gusts typically between 35 and 45 mph with greater values in the higher terrain. Expect gusty post- frontal north winds Thursday night and Friday, with strongest wind speeds along north-south valleys, such as along the Colorado River Valley. Will continue to assess the need and timing of wind-related headlines over the next few shifts. Precipitation chances largely remain north of our forecast area, though portions of Lincoln County have a 20 to 30 percent chance of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms on Thursday. Snow levels rapidly drop below 3000 feet, so a dusting of snow in the higher elevations of northern Lincoln County cannot be ruled out. High pressure returns over the weekend, allowing skies to clear and temperatures to rebound back closer to seasonal normals. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...A few isolated wrap-around showers will be possible through 08z, with showers generally remaining light. After 08z, FEW-SCT clouds around 06-08kft with BKN clouds around 10kft will remain through 08z before dissipating. Clouds on Tuesday are expected to be FEW around 10- 15kft. Winds through 08z are expected to be west to occasional northwest, but speeds should remain less than 10 knots. Lighter winds on Tuesday with VRB 6 knots in the morning and southeast winds to around 7 knots in the afternoon. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Isolated light showers will still be possible for the Las Vegas Valley and Lower Colorado River TAF sites through 08z before ending. CIGs around 6-8kft possible near showers, but generally should remain above 10kft. Winds will also diminish overnight over most areas with speeds less than 10 knots. The exception will be near KDAG where wind gusts exceeding 25 knots will remain overnight before decreasing to less than 15 knots after 18z. Clear skies and light winds Tuesday night. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Soulat AVIATION...Gorelow For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter  856 FXUS65 KREV 140850 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 150 AM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Dry and seasonable for today. * Strong cold front brings winds and chances for snowfall Wednesday into Thursday. Widespread hard freezes likely Friday morning. * Quiet weather and seasonable temperatures for the upcoming weekend, followed by another storm Monday-Tuesday next week. && .DISCUSSION... * For today we'll have seasonable temperatures across the region with dry weather. We'll see an increase in high level clouds that are associated with the next storm system by the afternoon. Otherwise, after a chilly morning it will be a quiet, warm April day. * The next storm system will impact the area Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. This system has a strong cold front, which will increase west, pre-frontal winds throughout the region. Latest guidance now shows a 30-70% chance for wind gusts of 45 mph or greater in western NV. As such, Wind Advisories have been issued for Wednesday for the Surprise Valley, northern Washoe, the Sierra Front including the greater Reno metro area, and the inner-basin and range. A Lake Wind Advisory is also in effect for Lake Tahoe as well. * Per latest guidance, there is a 50-70% chance for precipitation by Wednesday morning for the Surprise Valley, Lassen, northern Washoe, Pershing, and Churchill counties. Other areas in western NV have around a 20-40% chance. Meanwhile, the Tahoe Basin has around a 40-60% chance of precipitation by Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning. Mono and Mineral counties have a lower (10-25%) chance for precipitation. This is not looking like a major precipitation maker. QPF amounts are generally between zero to around 0.25", and there is still a 20-40% chance for measurable snowfall in the Sierra. * As the front moves through the area, strong north to northwest winds will develop on Thursday. The strongest gusts are still looking to be in Mineral, Lyon, and Mono counties. This will also possibly lead to new Wind Advisories for those areas, especially for any north-south aligned terrain. * After the front exits the area on Thursday, Friday morning is setting up to be a very cold morning (for mid-April standards). The urban areas, like Reno, have a 50% chance for temperatures dropping to 28 degrees or below. But outside of any urban areas, there is a likely (>60%) chance for temperatures of 28 degrees or colder. Any early season vegetation and irrigation systems would need to be protected ahead of time. * After the Wed-Thur storm system, conditions will be calm for Friday and Saturday. Temperatures will increase back to seasonal readings by Friday through the weekend. Sunday will become windy again ahead of the storm system that will move into the area on Monday into Tuesday. This system will also bring cooler temperatures and chances for precipitation. -McKellar && .AVIATION... * Freezing fog will continue in KTRK through around 16Z. Other favored valleys that had precipitation over the past weekend also have a chance for FZFG this morning. * We'll have mostly VFR with SCT high clouds associated with the next storm system. Westerly winds will get a little gusty in the afternoon, with gusts under 20 knots. * Wednesday will see increased aviation impacts from winds, LLWS, and mountain wave turbulence as that storm and strong cold front approach the area. -McKellar && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Wednesday NVZ003>005. Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Wednesday NVZ002. CA...Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Wednesday CAZ070. Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Wednesday CAZ072. && $$  365 FXUS63 KDVN 140854 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 354 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - We continue with multiple days of severe weather risks the rest of the week, with an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) for severe storms for parts of the area today and again Friday, along with a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) Wednesday. - Above normal temperatures will continue through Friday. - Potential for frost/freeze conditions Saturday night and especially Sunday night. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 334 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Residual outflow boundary from decaying WI MCS extends roughly near a line from Independence, Iowa to Monticello, Iowa to near Sterling, Illinois early this morning. The boundary is markedly slowing as organized convection earlier in WI continues to diminish. 00Z DVN RAOB sampled a well defined EML, which until recently has largely kept precipitation at bay except for portions of Jo Daviess and Stephenson counties atop the lingering low level cool pool north of the outflow boundary. However, low level water vapor imagery loop appears to suggest a cirrus tag denoting a weak impulse lifting up across the area. This along with increasing low to mid level warm advection attendant to a veering 40-50 kt LLJ is fostering some spotty convection into portions of eastern Iowa, and also further south into northeast Missouri on the backside of a well defined convectively augmented wave shifting toward central Illinois. For this morning, we'll maintain spotty convection chances through daybreak attendant to the aforementioned forcing mechanisms. This will be elevated activity and could bring an isolated marginally severe hail threat. Thereafter, there is considerable uncertainty on convective evolution the rest of today. The RAP model is most aggressive on supporting more scattered convection developing mid to late morning through early afternoon, and is mostly an outlier. Mid level water vapor imagery does seem to suggest another potential subtle wave lifting quickly up across OK/s KS, and distance/speed would bring this across this morning. With the EML in place should any convection occur during this timeframe it would remain elevated, but with heating could lead to increased potential for a few marginally severe cores with hail again the main threat. Low confidence exists on this round of precipitation potential late morning into afternoon, but it could have some big implications on what happens later this afternoon into evening. The main focus for deep convection and a more significant severe weather risk it appears will be in the vicinity of the outflow boundary by late afternoon into this evening. However, just where this boundary is located and where the subsequent main corridor for a severe weather risk remains uncertain. If we do end up with more convection festering late morning and afternoon, it could help retard the northward movement of the outflow and bring more of the area north of I-80 in the threat for a few storms by late afternoon into evening with the EML likely limiting storm coverage. If we don't see much convection in the late morning and early afternoon, then we will likely see this boundary lift northward and it could mix or effectively jump northward to Hwy 20 or possibly even further north into s WI and far ne IA just north/northwest of the service area by late afternoon, with any convective threat in our far north or not too far outside of the area. The evolution of the boundary will play a big role in where this chance for later PM/evening severe storms will exist. Effective bulk shear of 40-50+ kt within a moderately unstable atmosphere generally characterized by MLCAPE of 1500-2500+ j/kg will be favorable for supercells, with the supercell vector largely perpendicular to the initiating outflow supporting discrete potential meaning there may not be many storms. The kinematic and thermodynamic environment look to be favorable for significant severe, particularly large to very large hail with large CAPE in the growth zone and steep mid level lapse rates over 8c/km, with also a tornado threat due to any boundary interaction / ingestion of enhanced low level SRH. Aside from the significant severe risk within the vicinity of the remnant outflow late afternoon/evening. The rest of the area is likely to remain dominated by an EML. Later tonight, forcing for ascent is forecast to increase ahead of an approaching shortwave ejecting from the Great Basin area early this morning. Thus, we do anticipate a burgeoning of convection later in the evening and overnight. This looks to largely remain elevated with primarily a large hail threat. However, any congealing of convection in multi-cells could foster some strong, gusty wind potential as well. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 334 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 For Wednesday through Friday, the active pattern will only continue as an upper-level longwave trough moves through the area Wednesday, followed by yet another one on Friday. We continue with a Slight Risk or level 2 of 5 risk areawide on Wednesday. There remains some uncertainty on the timing and severity on Wednesday, mainly due to the likelihood of ongoing convection owing to uncertainty on the extent of airmass recovery/destabilization by afternoon and evening. However, we will have more of a trigger for severe weather with a surface low and attendant cold front. If we can see sufficient destabilization occur then the potential is there for at least scattered storms to develop ahead of the low and cold front by mid to late afternoon through evening. Strong deep layer shear and vector orientation may support discrete supercells with large to very large hail and some tornado threat, before potentially growing upscale into a QLCS with predominantly a damaging wind threat and potential for spin-up tornadoes with any mesovorts. Thursday looks to be a drier and brief respite from the active weather, as a weak surface ridge traverses the region. The break in the quiet is short-lived as the high moves off by Friday and we see strengthening return flow/warm advection on gusty southerly winds. The main focus for convective initiation on Friday is favored to our west ahead of a lifting surface low and attendant cold front. There is some potential for discrete supercells developing and/or propagating into parts of eastern Iowa Friday evening with all hazards possible. However, we may once again see this activity grow upscale into a QLCS with an accompanying damaging wind and spin-up tornado threat by mid to late evening and into the early overnight. Due to the risk for discrete supercells, SPC has introduced a 30% (enhanced) risk for portions of eastern Iowa and northeast Missouri. A look ahead to the upcoming weekend shows a drier pattern developing for Saturday and Sunday as upper-level ridging develops to the west. A cold front should bring notably cooler and more seasonal temperatures to the area on the heels of strong, gusty northwest winds. This could bring our first bout of frost/freeze conditions during this growing season, possibly Saturday night though winds may stay up to limit this to just a freeze potential for parts of the area, while Sunday night could bring about more widespread freeze and frost with lighter winds as high pressure builds in. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1240 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Outflow boundary from convection across WI/far northeast IA will pass through KDBQ at the start of the TAFs bringing gusty northwest winds to 30 kt before veering to easterly and diminishing. PROB30 for a shower or storm will also exist behind the boundary for a short time at KDBQ at the start of the period while some lowering of MVFR ceilings looks likely. Across the rest of the terminals, predominantly VFR conditions pre-boundary overnight with gusty south/southwest winds. A strengthening LLJ will bring some marginal LLWS prior to daybreak. There is also a chance (20%) for a few showers/storms after 09z through 12z near/north of KMLI to south of KDBQ. A period of MVFR to possibly localized IFR in low clouds and/or light fog exists Tuesday morning near KDBQ and possibly KCID near/north of the outflow boundary. Elsewhere, predominantly VFR conditions are expected the rest of the day on Tuesday. There is some signal for additional scattered higher based shower and storms late morning and early afternoon. However, this potential is lower confidence as consensus in the CAM guidance is lacking. There is the potential for more storms Tuesday late afternoon and evening, with the signal mainly north of Hwy 30 in closer proximity to the retreating boundary. Will have PROB30 mention at KDBQ where confidence is higher. Elsewhere, a capping inversion and lack of a coherent trigger lends to confidence being too low for any mention. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...McClure LONG TERM... AVIATION...McClure/Schultz  193 FXUS63 KGLD 140855 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 255 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Red Flag Warning is in effect for portions of the area Tuesday afternoon and evening, mainly along and south of I-70 where warm temps, low humidity and SW winds at 20-30 mph gusting to 45 mph may lead to rapid wildfire growth. - Breezy S to SW winds and critical fire weather possible over portions of the area, yet again, on Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 245 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Synoptic Overview: Shortwave energy approaching the 4-Corners early this morning will slowly/steadily track east across the central Rockies (tonight) and Central Plains (Wed). An associated lee cyclone will deepen over eastern CO and western KS today. The lee cyclone will broaden and weaken as it progresses eastward into central Kansas tonight and E-ENE into eastern Kansas and Nebraska on Wed. Today: Still a challenging forecast. A tightening MSLP to 850 mb height gradient and deep vertical mixing (up to 550-500 mb, ~12-14 KFT AGL) on the east and southeast periphery of the deepening lee cyclone will foster noticeably stronger SW winds over portions of the area, mainly east and south of Goodland during the mid-late afternoon and early evening when/where GFS, HRRR and RAP forecast soundings indicate that ~25-35 knot SW flow will be present throughout the mixed layer. Current guidance suggests that relatively stronger (~35-45 knot) SW flow will largely be confined along/south of Hwy 96 (Tribune/Leoti). Again, the northern extent/magnitude of SW winds (and more robust critical fire weather conditions) will highly depend on the precise evolution of the lee cyclone, which will track directly the NWS Goodland county warning area this aft-eve. In this particular pattern/setup, guidance continues to indicate that precipitation chances will be far less dependent on the precise evolution of the lee cyclone, i.e. most, if not all, of the Goodland CWA will thoroughly be situated within the dry slot. Simulated reflectivity forecasts from current and recent (00/06Z) runs of the HRRR and NAM NEST do suggest that meager (100-250 J/kg) high-based instability will support the development of scattered high-based convection along the Colorado Front Range and portions of the Palmer Divide (west of Limon) at peak heating this afternoon. Deep SW steering flow will, however, shephard activity toward the northeast (largely parallel-to the Goodland CWA), limiting already-limited precip chances to northern portions of Yuma County ~22-02Z (4-8 pm MDT). Tonight-Wed: Shortwave energy traversing the Colorado Front Range may emerge in the form of a modest, compact upper low.. and an ephemeral surface-850 mb reflection.. late tonight and early Wed morning. If this is the case, focused upper forcing and localized low-level convergence/frontogenesis in vicinity of the surface-850 mb low could facilitate the development of precip/showers over portions of northeast CO between midnight and sunrise (~06-12Z Wed). At present, convection allowing guidance suggests that any such activity would largely be confined to the I-76 corridor, possibly as far east as norther Yuma County. Scattered Cu and virga (maybe a shower or two) will accompany the upper wave as it progresses east across northwest KS and southwest NE during the day on Wed. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 208 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Upper-level troughing appears to be favored across the Western United States Thursday morning. Lee cyclogenesis is favored to take place across the North-Central High Plains through the afternoon. Additionally, GEFS guidance suggests an 850-mb high pressure will exist across the Southeastern United States, and back into Mexico and Baja California. These two features look to establish southerly to southwesterly surface flow across the forecast region Thursday afternoon, yielding warm and dry conditions. Forecast highs are currently in the mid-70s to mid-80s, with relative humidities (RH) in the upper single- digits to lower-teens. Critical fire weather conditions may be a concern during the afternoon and evening hours, with wind gusts forecast in the 25-40 mph range across most of the CWA. NBM guidance suggests over a 40% chance for wind gusts to meet criteria for critical fire weather conditions across most locations in the forecast region, with over a 90% chance across portions of Eastern Colorado. Further, LREF guidance suggests over a 90% chance for RH values to meet criteria for the hazard across portions of Eastern Colorado and West-Central Kansas during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Higher end scenarios would be associated with a stronger central low pressure across portions of Eastern Wyoming and Montana, and the Western Dakotas. Confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed Thursday afternoon is currently highest for portions of Eastern Colorado, around 30%. The upper-level trough from the west looks to move across the forecast region Friday, pushing a surface low pressure across the Central High Plains eastward. A strong cold front is favored to begin traversing the forecast region sometime between the afternoon and evening hours. Critical fire weather conditions are possible ahead of the cold front, though a slower eastward progression of the surface low would be required. About 60% of GEFS and EC members are in line with a slower cold front, which could be associated with some critical fire weather conditions across portions of West- Central Kansas and East Central Colorado. However, the 40% of members that show a faster cold front would mitigate the risk across this zone. A freeze, along with some snowfall may also be experienced with this cold front. Current forecast guidance suggests low temperatures in the lower-20s to lower-30s across the forecast region Friday night, with a 40-55% chance of light snow across portions of Eastern Colorado, far Southwest Nebraska, and far Northwest Kansas. NBM guidance suggests a 30-45% chance for the snowfall to be measurable (>0.1 inches) across this zone, with over a 75% chance for sub-freezing temperatures across most of the forecast area Friday night (nearly a 100% chance across portions of West Kansas, far Southwest Nebraska, and Eastern Colorado). Cooler conditions may continue into Saturday, with forecast high temperatures in the mid-50s to mid-60s during the afternoon. Critical fire weather conditions may be experienced Saturday afternoon as well, though is highly in question considering the lower temperatures. LREF guidance suggests about a 40-60% chance for RH values to meet critical fire weather criteria Saturday afternoon across most of Northwest Kansas and Eastern Colorado. By Sunday morning, upper-level troughing looks to be fully off to our east, with upper-level ridging approaching from the Western United States. This pattern favors a return of warm and dry conditions through the end of the forecast period Monday afternoon. Forecast high temperatures are in the low to mid-70s and upper-70s to lower-80s Sunday and Monday respectively. Relative humidities may drop into the low to mid-teens both Sunday and Monday, but is currently more confined to Eastern Colorado, far Southwest Nebraska, and far Northwest Kansas on Monday, as GEFS guidance indicates that the 850-mb high across Mexico and Baja California may erode and allow a better moisture return from the Gulf of America. Forecast wind gusts in the 25-40 mph range both days may indicate further risks for critical fire weather conditions. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1020 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 GLD: VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period. Light and variable winds will this evening and overnight will shift to the WSW and increase to 10-15 knots during the mid-late morning.. then back to the SW and further increase to 20-30 knots during the afternoon. Breezy SW to WSW winds will persist through sunset. Winds are likely to shift to the NW or N at some point Tuesday eve/night.. near the end of the 06Z TAF period. MCK: VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period. A broad low pressure system will track eastward across the Tri-State Area on Tue. Low confidence in wind direction at the McCook terminal. Winds may remain variable through much of the 06Z TAF period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 245 AM MDT Tue Apr 13 2026 Today: Expect warm/dry conditions similar to Monday but with relatively stronger SW winds at 20-35 mph gusting to 45 mph, strongest south and east of Goodland. The northern extent of critical fire weather conditions will highly depend on the precise evolution of a deepening low pressure system in eastern Colorado today. Recent high resolution model guidance/trends suggest that the northern extent of critical fire weather will be along or near the I-70 corridor, where the duration of red flag conditions will be marginal (2-3 hours). The further south you go from I-70, the greater the magnitude and duration of red flag conditions. Thursday: Warmer and much drier with minimum RH readings around 8-13% and 20-30 mph S to SW winds. Much of the Tri-State Area could see a period of red flag conditions. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MDT /noon CDT/ this morning to 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for KSZ013>016-027>029-041- 042. CO...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ253-254. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Vincent LONG TERM...Davis AVIATION...Vincent FIRE WEATHER...Vincent  705 FXUS63 KTOP 140858 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 358 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... -A similar setup to yesterday means another Red Flag Warning behind the dryline and a threat for severe storms east of the boundary today. -Another round of storms is possible Wednesday, mainly in far eastern KS. -A very dynamic system impacts the region Friday, bringing another threat for severe weather. -Much cooler weather is expected this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 344 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A similar setup to yesterday shows an area of low pressure and cold front near the KS/NE border and a dryline extending southward through central portions of KS this morning. The dryline will mix eastward today, causing extreme fire danger conditions again in north-central KS. RH will drop to less than 20 percent with southwest winds gusting 35 to 40 mph. This prompted the need for another Red Flag Warning for the same areas as yesterday. Ahead of the dryline will be another unstable air mass, especially where dew points remain in the 60s across far eastern KS. CAMs are more aggressive today in developing scattered convection ahead of the dryline this evening with some height falls aloft ahead of an approaching H5 wave. Given a similar environment to yesterday, characterized by nearly 3000 J/kg of MLCAPE and around 45 kts of effective shear, storms that develop will be capable of producing very large hail and a few tornadoes. Localized flooding could also occur, especially where heavy rain has occurred in the last few days. A more organized threat for severe storms could occur on Wednesday, mainly in far eastern KS as the H5 wave finally moves over the region, shunting a cold front into western MO. CAMs are in good agreement with storms developing along the cold front near or just southeast of the Kansas Turnpike, then quickly shifting storms in MO. But there could be at least a brief window for a few severe storms with large hail and damaging wind looking to be the main hazards. Thursday should be a day free of precipitation with the region in between storm systems. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s with lighter winds and sunny skies. A vigorous storm system will then approach from the west on Friday. Long range models still show some disagreement on the timing and placement of a strong sfc cold front and thunderstorm initiation, but there could be ample destabilization and deep layer shear in a strongly forced environment to produce severe thunderstorms. Much cooler conditions can be expected behind Friday's fast moving system for the upcoming weekend. We may even have to consider frost/freeze headlines for overnight low temperatures. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1236 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Strong winds and a chance for storms are the main aviation hazards this period. South winds with gusts around 25 kts persists tonight. A 55kt LLJ also develops, which could create some LLWS despite gusty winds at the sfc. South-southwest winds increase after sunrise. Chances for TS return during the evening. Convection looks scattered, but most likely to impact terminals after 00Z Wednesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 345 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Another Red Flag Warning has been issued for today in north- central KS due to low RH and strong south-southwest winds behind the dryline. These conditions will combine to create extreme fire danger again this afternoon. Minimum RH behind the dryline could quickly fall to below 20 percent as dew points drop. South-southwest winds will be sustained at 15 to 20 mph with gusts as high as 40 mph throughout the afternoon. Improvement in conditions is expected tomorrow with higher RH's and lighter winds in central KS. For today, however, burning should be avoided. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008-KSZ020-KSZ034. && $$ DISCUSSION...Teefey AVIATION...Teefey FIRE WEATHER...Teefey