617 FXUS65 KTWC 140903 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 203 AM MST Tue Apr 14 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Lingering breezy winds today east of Tucson along with high temperatures 3-8 degrees below normal. After Wednesday temperatures are expected to be around normal with the potential for another round of breezy winds Thursday and Friday. This weekend temperatures heat back up to above normal. && .DISCUSSION...A shortwave trough is exiting the region moving into the Four Corners with a strong Pacific Low moving into the Pacific Northwest. The Pacific low will travel inland then dig south through the Great Basin Thursday into Friday. The core of the trough will likely stay to the north in Utah. In the wake of the shortwave today temperatures will be 3-8 degree cooler than normal with leftover breezy winds east of Tucson. High temperatures rebound a few degrees Wednesday into Friday with highs generally in the low 80s to upper 70s across the lower elevations. Breezy winds return Thursday and Friday as the trough passes to the north. Expect speeds 12-20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. There is potential that winds could be strong enough to create fire weather concerns, especially on Thursday. Right now deterministic NBM wind grids are below critical thresholds, but 75th-90th percentile winds and other deterministic models show winds have the potential to reach critical thresholds. This weekend brief ridging is expected to take hold, which will lead to a warmup Saturday into the early part of next week. High temperatures will be 3-6 degrees above normal. Sunday looks to be the warmest day with the NBM giving Tucson around a 50 percent chance to hit 90 degrees. & .AVIATION...Valid through 15/12z. BKN clouds 6k-8k ft AGL this morning becoming FEW-SCT this afternoon and evening. After 15/02Z expect SKC conditions. SFC winds SWLY 6-10 kts this morning becoming 12-20 kts with gusts 20-30 kts 14/18Z-15/02Z. The strongest winds will be at KDUG with KTUS and KOLS on the lower end of that range. After 15/02Z winds decrease below 10 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Expect breezy winds mainly east of Tucson with speeds 12-18 mph and gusts 20-30 mph. Wednesday winds will be terrain driven 5 to 10 mph. Another Pacific system will move through Thursday and Friday leading to another round strong gusty winds. Some uncertainty on the potential for critical fire weather conditions on Thursday. It will hinge on how strong the winds are. Right now they are below critical thresholds, but could increase as Thursday gets closer. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Hardin Visit us on Facebook, X, YouTube, and at weather.gov/Tucson  769 FXUS65 KFGZ 140908 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 208 AM MST Tue Apr 14 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Look for gusty winds and mainly isolated showers today as the current storm system moves eastward. Another round of windy weather is expected Thursday, followed by cooler temperatures Friday as a weather system passes to our north. The weekend looks dry with warmer daytime temperatures and well below normal morning lows. && .DISCUSSION...The current low pressure system will rapidly exit Arizona today. The best chance for showers will be toward the Arizona/New Mexico border through mid-morning. There could be an additional inch or two of snow in the higher elevations of the Chuska mountains with rain amounts ranging from 0.10-0.20 at lower elevations. The snow level will range roughly from 6,000-6,500 feet through the early morning hours. For the remainder of the day enough moisture will linger for isolated instability showers which should mainly be light and brief. Behind the low pressure system gradients will weaken so it won't be as windy as was observed on Monday. Consequently, we are looking at primarily west winds at 10-20 mph with a few gusts approaching 30 mph with the higher values mainly located from Flagstaff eastward. On Wednesday...Dry air will move in from the west. Pressure gradients will be much weaker with southwest to west winds at 5-15 mph forecast. The air mass will be milder with temperatures ranging near seasonal averages. For Thursday through Friday...Another trough will deliver a glancing blow to northern Arizona. The main impact will be a return to stronger winds. On Thursday, ahead of the trough axis, winds will become southwest at 15-25 mph gusting to 35-45 mph. Winds will remain gusty Thursday night but gradually weaken and shift to a west to northwest direction as the trough axis moves across the area. Friday will see west to northwest winds at 10-20 mph gusting to 30 mph behind the trough. There will be some dynamics for upward motion along the Arizona/Utah border but with limited moisture the chances for any showers will be slight, mainly Thursday night through the morning Friday. From Saturday onward...Even drier air moves in. With lighter winds and strong radiational cooling there will be the potential for elevations above 6,500 feet to see low temperatures in the teens to mid 20s both Saturday and Sunday mornings. Another trough will approach Arizona from Sunday into early next week with gusty southwest winds returning to begin next week. && .AVIATION...Tuesday 14/06Z through Wednesday 15/06Z...Mainly VFR conditions with MVFR conditions in scattered -SHRA/-SHSN through 12Z. Periods of IFR are possible in SHSN over the higher terrain. ISO showers possible through 00Z/Wed. Lingering MVFR CIGs through 15Z, then mainly VFR expected. SW winds 10-20 kts with locally higher gusts of 30-40 kts possible along a KSOW-KSJN line overnight. Winds become W 5-15 kts gusting to 20-25 kts after 16Z. OUTLOOK...Wednesday 15/06Z through Friday 17/06Z...VFR conditions. SW winds 5-15 kts on Wednesday, increasing to 10-20 kts with gusts to 30 kts on Thursday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Wednesday...Isolated showers will linger today, mainly light and brief. Dry conditions return on Wednesday. Winds west at 10-20 mph gusting to 30 mph today, then diminishing to southwest to west at 5-15 mph on Wednesday. Thursday through Saturday...Dry through the period. Winds southwest at 10-20 mph gusting to 25-35 mph on Thursday, shifting to northwest on Friday, then turning variable at 5-15 mph on Saturday. Minimum RH of 10-20% is forecast for Thursday and Friday, then turning a bit drier at 10-15% on Saturday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...McCollum AVIATION...Meola FIRE WEATHER...McCollum For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff  767 FXUS65 KBOI 140911 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 311 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Drier today with normal temperatures. - Rain and mountain snow Wednesday, then snow level lowering to valley floors before ending late Wednesday night/Thursday morning. - Subfreezing morning temperatures Thursday through Saturday across the entire area. && .SHORT TERM /Through Thursday Night/... Weak ridging aloft from the north Pacific will pass through our CWA today, bringing drier weather with normal temperatures. The next upper trough from the Gulf of Alaska will spread more rain (snow above 5000 feet MSL north to 6500 feet south) into our CWA tonight through Wednesday night. The system's cold front should pass through eastern OR midday Wednesday and western ID Wednesday afternoon/evening, followed by even colder air than the previous system. Snow level will lower to valley floors late Wednesday night but most models show pcpn ending by then. GFS, however, has a band of moisture behind the front that passes through our CWA toward sunrise Thursday morning when the air is easily cold enough to support snow. For now we'll stay with the model consensus suggesting little or no snow in the lower valleys, but we remain ready for any model changes in the next two cycles. For now, we can offer a 20 percent chance of a half- inch snow accumulation in the Treasure valley early Thursday morning, with a 40 percent chance of up to an inch in the Magic Valley. Thursday looks breezy, drier, and cold, as the upper trough passes through. Thursday night will be clearing and calming and quite cold, with lows in the teens and 20s, cold enough to damage new plants unless they are covered. && .LONG TERM /Friday through Tuesday/... Friday will mark the start of a warming and drying trend to end the week. As the system in the short-term period exits to the east, ridging will begin to build in behind it. High temperatures come Friday will still be below normal, but 5-10 degrees warmer than Thursday. The drying trend will allow for overnight valley lows to be at or near freezing through Saturday morning. A 15-50% chance of precipitation will remain over the Boise Mountains and Valley County Friday (highest in northeastern Valley County), associated with lingering wrap-around moisture as the low moves east. Gusty west/northwest winds will persist in the usual windy areas east of Mountain Home, with gusts up to around 30 mph. The warming trend will continue through the weekend, with temperatures leaning above normal again by Sunday. Confidence continues to increase on another low digging down from the Gulf of Alaska early next week, although timing continues to be uncertain on exactly when it will impact our area. However, right now ensembles favor the late Sunday/Monday timeframe. With that, precipitation chances will increase from west to east Saturday afternoon into Monday, reaching 30-60% area-wide come Monday afternoon. Precipitation chances will remain elevated through Tuesday. The exact timing, and therefore best precipitation chances, should become more clear in future forecasts. Regardless of the exact timing of the system, temperatures will cool to be near normal when it impacts our area. Winds will also become breezy/gusty, from the south/ southeast ahead of and north/northwest following the system. && .AVIATION /06Z Tuesday through Wednesday/... Issued 1117 PM MDT MON APR 13 2026 Isolated showers overnight, creating brief low VFR/MVFR conditions. Snow levels 4500-5500 ft MSL. Areas of mtn obscuration. Pockets of fog/low clouds in the Snake Plain and mtn valleys through morning. Surface winds: variable up to 12 kt overnight, then SW-NW 5-15 kt in the afternoon. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-SW 15-25 kt. KBOI...Generally VFR. Isolated rain showers in Treasure Valley through the morning, with a 30% chance of MVFR in showers/low clouds between Tue/10Z-15Z. Surface winds: NW or variable around 5 kt. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...LC LONG TERM....NF AVIATION.....SH  165 FXUS66 KOTX 140913 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 213 AM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A robust cold front to deliver valley rain, mountain snow, and gusty winds today through Thursday. - Drier and more seasonal temperatures Friday and Saturday. - Rain chances return Sunday and Monday. && .SYNOPSIS... A cold front passage this afternoon into Wednesday will bring lowland rain, mountain snow, and breezy to windy conditions. Some snow will make it down to the lowlands Wednesday night into Thursday morning on the tail end of the mid-week system. && .DISCUSSION... Today to Thursday: Low pressure in the Gulf of AK drops into our area through Wednesday and gradually shifts out Thursday. This brings modest chances for precipitation, along with a trend toward cooler temperatures. Highs will largely in the mid 40s and 50s. Lows will be in the mid-30s to low 40s tonight, then drop into the mid-20s to mid-30s Wednesday and Thursday night which means some freezing temperatures. Rain and mountain snow chances increase through today from the west as the low approaches, becoming likely in the Cascades and northern counties by late morning to afternoon and over most of the remaining CWA late Tuesday afternoon/evening into Wednesday. The exception will be over central WA where the shadowing will keep PoPs to around 40-50%, highest Tuesday overnight into early Wednesday. Overall chances start to wane from the west Wednesday night into Thursday and then start to end completely heading into Thursday night. There is about 15 percent chance for embedded t-storms over the northeast CWA Wednesday afternoon/early evening. Snow levels around 3.5-4.5kft Tuesday afternoon drop to 2-3kft Wednesday afternoon and 1-1.5kft by Thursday morning. So look for mountain snow and lowland rain to start, changing to a lowland mix or even all snow overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning. Precipitation chances start to wane by then, but it still leave the potential for some accumulation in the lowlands that time frame. The biggest snow impacts are expected in the mountain passes. Here are some probabilities from Tuesday to Thursday morning (48-hours): 2 4 6 8 12 Stevens Pass 100% 95% 85% 65% 20% Snoqualmie Pass 100% 85% 65% 45% 15% Lookout Pass 100% 80% 50% 35% 10% Sherman Pass 50% 20% 5% 0% 0% Winter storm warnings remain in effect over western Chelan county and Winter Weather Advisories are in place over western Okanogan County this afternoon and tonight; over the higher elevations of the Okanogan Highlands this afternoon through Wednesday, and now over the central ID Panhandle, above 3000 feet, from this evening through Wednesday night. The chance for 0.1 inches of snow at select locations outside the mountains for Wednesday night into Thursday AM: Pullman 60%, Sandpoint 55%, Spokane 20%. Rain amounts around 0.25 to 0.60 inches are forecast around the east third of WA and ID, with higher amounts in the higher terrain. This could cause some minor flooding around small streams and creeks and lead to some ponding of water in poor drainage areas and field flooding. The NWRFC forecast some rises on mainstem rivers into midweek, though none reach action stage. Paradise Creek, however, could approach action stage toward later Wednesday afternoon into evening. So this will be monitored, because it could easily push above action stage (or more). Winds will remain breezy/gusty through this period. Southwest winds today at 10-20 mph with gusts of 25-40 mph. Winds turn more west-northwest Wednesday and Thursday, with similar speeds but gusts around 20-30 mph. Friday to Monday: High pressure and drier weather comes in Friday, but another low approaches for the latter part of the weekend increasing rain and mountain rain/snow chances Saturday night into Monday. The primary low stays off the coast until Monday, so PoPs are 20-40%, up to near 60% at the immediate Cascade crest and central Panhandle Mountains on Monday. It will be a bit breezy and temperatures will be near normal, except Sunday when values are forecast to be slightly above normal. /Solveig && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: VFR conditions this evening are forecast to give away to MVFR conditions near GEG/SFF/COE/PUW overnight into Tuesday AM as low level moisture expands to stratus. This lifts toward VFR conditions again for the late morning to afternoon, before the next system moves in with rain and a return to MVFR at GEG/SFF/COE/PUW. Rain chances start near the EAT/MWH in the later morning to afternoon and expand toward the east toward early to mid-afternoon, becoming likely toward 23-01Z. Winds will remain breezy through the period, with gusts near 20-30kts possible. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Moderate to high confidence in VFR conditions this evening; moderate confidence in MVFR conditions at GEG/SFF/COE/PUW 10-18Z, with HREF showing around 60-70% chance. Moderate to high confidence in VFR conditions between 18-00Z, then moderate confidence in MVFR conditions at GEG/SFF/COE/PUW 00-06Z. Possible MVFR conditions at EAT/MWH/LWS with rain, but confidence is low. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 51 38 49 30 49 29 / 50 90 70 30 30 0 Coeur d'Alene 49 37 46 30 47 29 / 50 100 90 50 50 10 Pullman 51 38 44 29 44 29 / 20 90 100 60 50 10 Lewiston 58 44 52 34 50 34 / 10 80 100 50 40 10 Colville 52 35 51 28 53 26 / 80 90 60 30 30 0 Sandpoint 46 37 44 30 45 28 / 80 100 90 60 70 20 Kellogg 46 37 43 29 41 28 / 60 100 100 70 80 30 Moses Lake 57 40 56 30 58 31 / 30 30 30 10 0 0 Wenatchee 55 37 52 34 55 34 / 40 50 20 10 0 0 Omak 56 37 53 31 58 31 / 60 60 30 10 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM PDT Wednesday for Okanogan Highlands. Winter Storm Warning from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM PDT Wednesday for Western Chelan County. Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM PDT Wednesday for Western Okanogan County. ID...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 5 AM PDT Thursday for Central Panhandle Mountains. && $$  962 FXUS63 KSGF 140913 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 413 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slight (level 2 of 5) Risk of severe weather this afternoon into tonight, generally along and west of I-44. Low confidence in afternoon supercell development (all hazards possible), with higher confidence in window of severe potential associated with storms moving in from KS and OK (hail and wind risks). - Breezy southerly winds will occur again this afternoon, gusting up to 35 mph outside of thunderstorms. - Additional severe weather potential Wednesday afternoon and evening, and again Friday afternoon and overnight into Saturday. - Marginal excessive rainfall concerns through the week in areas that see repeated strong storms. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 133 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: A diffuse area of surface low pressure with two embedded centers of low pressure is located over the Northern Plains early this morning. Several hours ago, a dryline extended southward from this area of low pressure through central Kansas and Oklahoma before arcing back through northwest Texas. Now, the dryline has sagged back south and is attaching onto another developing lee cyclone in western Kansas with more of a cold front connecting the developing low to the established low pressure center over Iowa. This dryline separates a corridor of very moist air from a much drier air mass, which can be seen in the difference in PW values between the 00Z RAOBs at OUN (1.26") and DDC (0.3"). Upstream, an amplified trough with a closed low over the Mojave Desert is keeping flow progressive. Severe Weather This Afternoon Into Tonight: Tricky forecast with a lot of nuance and subtle mesoscale influences that will drive the ultimate outcome. The surface low near Wisconsin (calling this low #1 for the rest of this discussion) will slide east into the Great Lakes area and lee cyclogenesis will continue in western Kansas (calling this low #2). All guidance seems to agree on the general evolution through the day: as low #2 deepens and begins to creep east, the boundary connecting lows #1 and #2 will begin to lift north as a warm front and moisture will pool along it. Low #2 will push the dryline east and create a dry slot that could extend as far east as the Missouri/Kansas line by this evening, when moisture will surge northward along the boundary and begin cutting off off the "dry slot" between the warm front and leading edge of moisture transport. What we know mostly for sure: Storms are expected to initiate along the southern portion of the dryline in Kansas and Oklahoma this evening and push into our area late tonight as the LLJ ramps back up. These storms are expected to initiate as supercells, and long-track supercells could be sustained if they remain discrete into the overnight hours. With widespread initiation along the dryline expected, it is more likely that the storms initially begin discrete and begin forming into clusters and grow upscale as they approach and enter our area. Low confidence, higher-severe scenario: This is a low confidence scenario, but the potential severity deems it worth mentioning. As the theta-e gradient sags south through the dry slot this afternoon, it could serve as a lifting mechanism for potential afternoon thunderstorms. Some models indicate that there is a few hours roughly between 21-01Z where the dry slot sags south and east, which would orient the gradient from west to east in portions eastern Kansas. Due southerly surface flow would suggest that the warmer, more moist air would overrun the dry slot, which could provide another lifting mechanism for storms, further north of the expected primary dryline initiation in OK. Soundings suggest that the cap will be overcome-able by late afternoon in the north and west portions of our area, so this overrunning, in addition to any associated surface convergence that occurs as a result of these air masses interacting, would provide the final ingredient for supercell development. 40-50kts of westerly shear could favor either discrete supercells or a preceding round of multicell clusters with supercell characteristics, depending on location of initiation and the orientation of the mesoscale boundary at that location. In all scenarios, any discrete supercells that develop/track into our area would be capable of damaging winds up to 70 mph, very large hail (up to the size of tennis balls), and tornadoes. Once storms begin to interact with other nearby storms and cold pools become contaminated, the primary risk would be damaging wind gusts (especially with bowing segments) and embedded spin-up tornadoes if any line segments can become balanced. Wednesday Severe Weather Potential: Wednesday will begin with the aforementioned round of thunderstorms moving in from the southwest. There may be a few rounds of multicell clusters that move through the area before the primary MCS arrives, pending development near Wichita, but the main AM system will be the TX/OK dryline development from Tuesday night. REFS and HREF members both depict several different scenarios as far as potential number of rounds or timing, but overall consensus is that the MCS will arrive around 6-8am on Wednesday morning. The duration, intensity, and speed of this MCS will be very influential on how the afternoon plays out. As a shortwave upper trough ejects into the Northern Plains on Wednesday, an additional round of strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday afternoon and night. The warm front between lows #1 and 2 on Tuesday will push back south as a cold front, likely stalling in Northern Missouri, but the dryline will still be in play in eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Between 1500-3500 J/kg of SBCAPE will be available in these areas, which will have the most time to recover from morning convection. Despite the uncertainty, if isolated storms could develop and break through the cap, thermodynamic profiles favor large hail from resulting supercells. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 133 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Thursday: Uncertainty in Wednesday afternoon/night storm evolutions leads to uncertainty in when rain will move out of the area. Most medium-range models indicate rain will linger through the early morning hours, especially into the Eastern Ozarks, so maintained 30-65% PoPs through 12Z (7am) Thursday. Coverage may become more scattered as the storms progress, which would see PoPs decreased in following forecasts. Storm redevelopment is not expected on Thursday afternoon, with the rest of the afternoon remaining dry. Friday will see a more aggressive cold front approach from the northwest, serving as another source for severe weather this week. Synoptic conditions appear similar to Wednesday, except this time the cold front makes it into our area. Storms could initially be more supercellular in the afternoon warm sector, which appears to include our entire forecast area, before growing into a line of storms with the cold frontal passage Friday night. Temperatures will finally drop out of the 80s on Saturday, with mean temperatures in the 60s for this weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1250 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Breezy southwest winds gusting 20-30kts continue through the period, with 25-30kts of LLWS overnight as the nocturnal LLJ strengthens. As temperatures in the low-levels cool overnight, the 2000-3000ft layer will saturate underneath an inversion and a layer of MVFR stratus will develop into the early morning hours. A cluster of showers and thunderstorms in central Missouri have sent an outflow boundary south across southern Missouri, with satellite obs indicating the MVFR layer along/behind the boundary is expanding, hence the choice of prevailing MVFR at KSGF. If this cold air layer does persist to reach KSGF, an amendment to expected MVFR conditions will be needed. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Record High Temperatures: April 13: KVIH: 87/2025 April 14: KSGF: 88/1936 KVIH: 87/2006 KUNO: 86/2024 April 15: KUNO: 84/9999 April 16: KVIH: 85/2006 April 17: KSGF: 87/1937 KVIH: 86/2004 KUNO: 87/2006 Record High Minimum Temperatures: April 13: KSGF: 65/1890 April 14: KSGF: 67/2006 April 15: KSGF: 63/2006 April 17: KSGF: 66/1976 && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Camden LONG TERM...Camden AVIATION...Camden CLIMATE...Camden  505 FXUS63 KEAX 140913 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 413 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Active weather pattern continues with multiple chances for strong to severe thunderstorms, specifically Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday. * Warm temperatures (upper 70s to low/mid 80s) are expected to persist through the work week, with cooler and drier conditions expected this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 412 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Conditions currently much quieter than just a few hours ago. Remnant activity from this evening continues to lift NE through far NE Missouri and into far SE Iowa and west-central Illinois, including additional Severe Thunderstorm Warnings. Synoptic scale conditions favoring active weather remain entrenched across the region. Western CONUS trough has begun to move into Intermountain West, keeping deep SW flow over the central CONUS. This eastward movement of the larger trough and an expected leading piece of shortwave energy will yield another round of Lee Cyclogenesis and an elongated surface low building into and moving across northern Kansas and southern Nebraska. This more southerly placement vs yesterday/Monday will push the dry line closer to and even across portions of the CWA. Hi- res/CAM guidance of late has consistently built/pushed this dry line into SW Iowa by the mid-afternoon and angled back to the SW across NW Missouri, NE Kansas and onward SW. More on this in just a second. The open warm sector will initially be robustly capped once again, but ongoing WAA remains poised to yield highs a handful of degrees warmer today than yesterday, and coupled with diurnal mixing will yield a notably weaker/weak cap by mid-late afternoon. But... we still remain notably lackluster in the synoptic or mesoscale lift depictions. So, back to the dry line. Consistency is also seen in a lack of initiation along the dry line in IA/MO/most of KS with the forecast orientation largely parallel to surface/low level flow. This is notably different in far S Kansas and N Oklahoma where robust convergence into the dry line is anticipated. This "should" be the initiation genesis region, and activity lifting NE toward the forecast area through the late afternoon and evening. As has been noted in previous discussions, this would likely yield a multi- cellular/cluster or linear storm mode for the area. Given what transpired yesterday evening, will certainly note that if we are able to initially convect closer to home or if discrete cells remain, the environment is in many ways similar. Robust CAPE (>2000- 2500 J/kg), supportive deep shear (>35-40 kts 0-6km), and very high near-surface "streamwiseness" noted in hodographs. Regardless, very large hail and damaging winds are the primary concern, with tornadic potential possible with any supercellular structure (though noted LCLs are a bit high). Timing for this would be late afternoon (if we convect closer to home) to evening/night (the more likely KS/OK initial storms moving NE into area). The dry line position will largely determine the N/NW extent of severe threat, which may be near the KC Metro. Sagging frontal boundary catching the dry line and/or LLJ increasing too looks to initiate some more elevated convection, but would generally be in a much less supportive environment by this time (evening/overnight) for strong/severe over NW parts of the CWA. Main things to watch for through the day will be dry line evolution (how far east?) and orientation (areas of greater low level convergence close to home?). SPC New Day 1 Slight Risk remains in place for the area with noted Sig 1 hatching for Hail. Also note Sig 1 hatching for Tornado flirts with far SW forecasts area, noting the best area for discrete storms/supercells. Additional rounds of less potent showers/storms are generally depicted within hi-res/CAM guidance through the overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. A good amount of uncertainty in how this transpires given reliance and upstream convection evolution. For the most part, the greatest ramifications are for how the environment might recover or struggle to recover Wednesday. However, the strong low level flow may limit the bottom end. If we see more sunshine/recovery than cloud cover, another round of very robust convection/storms may be possible. As of now, guidance preference is to initiate along the dry line/cool front hybrid that again may be in the vicinity of the KC Metro and in a NE to SW orientation. Much uncertainty here though, so we shall see how the environment evolves. SPD Day 2 Slight with no noted Sig 1 (or other) hatching into the area. A brief reprieve Thursday as the open wave/trough kicks east, but not really cooler, which helps the area quickly rebound for yet another round of strong to severe weather potential Friday. Of note here, the thermodynamic and kinematic setup is quite impressive in various synoptic guidance. This as another western CONUS trough begins to move out of the Intermountain West and into the Plains. As it does so, takes on a mature/negative tilt orientation, helping yield some of the impressive kinematics. Devil is in the details in how the attendant surface low, general low level features, and timing evolves, so suffice it to say that Friday is absolutely a day/evening to pay attention to. This is also well reflected with the SPC Day 4 bump up to 30% (Enhanced equivalent) over portions of the area. Trough and surface low pivots through Friday night, leaving in its wake notably cooler (more seasonable) and quieter conditions for at least the weekend and early next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1213 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions should prevail across the sites for much of the period. Initially, a low VFR/high MVFR stratus deck may clip the metro sites, especially KIXD, as that deck has blossomed in the wake of outflow from storms earlier this evening. Am not confident enough to include prevailing given soundings and strong low level flow, but will monitor. Otherwise, VFR conditions and gusty SW winds prevail across all sites through much of the remainder of the period. After 00z, convection expected to blossom and move up into the area. Given confidence in convection, have included a prevailing TSRA group with a PROB30 for higher intensity/low visibility potential. That activity may carry into the overnight/past the end of this current TAF period. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Curtis AVIATION...Curtis  633 FXUS61 KBUF 140914 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 514 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes have been made with this update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Warm with rounds of showers and thunderstorms through much of the week. 2) Marginal risk for isolated severe thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall Tuesday and Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Warm with rounds of showers and thunderstorms through much of the week. Surface low pressure will move from the central Great Lakes this morning to the Saint Lawrence Valley by early this evening. A period of warm advection and moisture transport will cross the eastern Great Lakes this morning ahead of the low, enhanced on the nose of a 40-50 knot low level jet in the warm sector of the passing low. Isentropic upglide and convergence near the nose of the low level jet will likely support an area of showers and scattered thunderstorms moving northeast across the area this morning. A second line of convection may develop along the weak cold front trailing the low, which will cross the eastern Great Lakes from late morning through late afternoon. Convergence from the passing weak front may combine with convergence along the southern edge of enhanced flow off Lake Erie from the Southern Tier into the Finger Lakes and Central NY, where convection is most likely this afternoon. A gusty southwest wind off the cold Lake Erie and Lake Ontario waters will likely reduce the chance of afternoon storms on the lake plains. Most of the showers and scattered thunderstorms will end early this evening with the exit of the weak cold front and loss of diurnal instability. This will leave mainly dry conditions through the first half of the night. Late tonight, a convectively augmented shortwave will move out of lower Michigan and across southern Ontario, approaching Western NY before daybreak with increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms from west to east during the pre-dawn hours. This cluster of thunderstorms, and the potential for additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms, will continue through Wednesday across the region. Additional showers and sub-severe thunderstorms are likely to continue crossing into WNY and over to the North Country through the remainder of Wednesday night. A deeper, positively tilted mid-level shortwave moving into the Great Lakes from the Midwest will then cause the stalled boundary to briefly lift north of the region with a drying trend south of Lake Ontario as temps remain warm. The surface low attendant to the shortwave will then push a cold front through the forecast area sometime between Thursday and Thursday night with yet another round of showers and embedded thunderstorms. Some mid to long range guidance suggests a secondary sfc wave developing along the boundary which could slow its progression. Uncertainty in this solution leads to PoPs >30% being maintained through Friday, though temps should still cool several degrees compared to the midweek timeframe. KEY MESSAGE 2...Marginal risk for isolated severe thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall Tuesday and Wednesday. Numerous rounds of showers and thunderstorms will cross the eastern Great Lakes today through Wednesday, with a few of these rounds potentially bringing a risk of isolated strong wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall. The first round of convection in the warm advection regime this morning is not likely to become severe, with an initially stable boundary layer keeping instability rooted above the surface and keeping most of the stronger winds aloft. Thunderstorms will produce brief heavy downpours today through tonight with PWAT values reaching or exceeding 1.25", but strong flow and fast storm motions will limit the flood risk unless training convection occurs. A weak cold front will cross the eastern Great Lakes from late morning through the afternoon today. Surface temperatures climbing into the 70s and surface dewpoints rising into the mid to upper 50s will support weak to moderate surface based instability by early afternoon. Strong flow in the 2K to 10K foot layer with largely unidirectional shear profiles will support the risk of isolated strong wind gusts in any stronger storms. Thunderstorms are most probable from late morning through the afternoon from the Southern Tier into the Finger Lakes and Central NY along the southern edge of enhanced flow over and northeast of the lakes. Stable lake shadows will expand northeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario in the afternoon, reducing chances for convection over the lake plains. Any convection that develops this afternoon will end by early evening as the weak cold front exits and the boundary layer stabilizes. A convectively augmented shortwave will move across lower Michigan and southern Ontario overnight, approaching Western NY towards daybreak Wednesday. Forcing and persistent convergence along and east-west frontal zone may allow a cluster of showers and thunderstorms to persist overnight, with these storms moving into Western NY during the pre-dawn hours of Wednesday. A few of these storms may also bring a risk of locally strong wind gusts, particularly if bowing segments are able to persist through the overnight hours. Wednesday, a decaying MCS in the vicinity of the Finger Lakes or North Country around daybreak will likely shuffle east and out of the forecast area by mid-morning. In its wake, the eastern Great Lakes will remain within the warm sector of a nearby stalled frontal boundary, with a short break in the shower activity expected. This should allow the environment to recover to some extent, especially if a few breaks in the cloud cover emerge. Signals from the short to mid-range guidance on convective evolution remain messy with the 18z REFS advertising a 30-65% chance for SBCAPE values >1000J/kg south of I-90 and west of the Finger Lakes, highest across southwestern NY. Steepening lapse rates and strong 0-6km bulk shear values around 45kts overtop the stalled boundary may cause a few strong to severe thunderstorms to develop as the next convective wave tracks into WNY from southern Michigan in the afternoon and evening. At this juncture the primary threat appears to be damaging wind gusts and small to marginally severe hail, though given potentially strong (>20kts) 0-1km shear profiles, cannot completely rule out an isolated tornado. The severe risk appears generally lower north of I-90 and in the North Country. && .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Areas of fog and low stratus will continue early this morning east of Lake Ontario with IFR/LIFR conditions. Surface low pressure will move from the central Great Lakes this morning to the Saint Lawrence Valley by this evening. An area of showers and a few thunderstorms will cross the eastern Great Lakes from southwest to northeast this morning, with the greatest coverage likely to be across the northern portion of the area. A few more scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and early evening with daytime heating, mainly from the Southern Tier to the Finger Lakes, Central NY, and Tug Hill region. Any of the showers and storms today will produce brief VSBY/CIG restrictions. Southwest winds off the cold lake waters will reduce the chance of afternoon and evening convection northeast of Lake Erie. A variety of CIGS will continue today through tonight. MVFR/IFR CIGS will occur at times over and downwind of the lakes with high dewpoints over the cold water supporting a marine layer. Lower CIGS will also be found in areas of organized showers and across higher terrain at times. A strong low level jet will remain in place today. This will initially support some low level wind shear early this morning, then gusty winds from mid morning through the afternoon. Expect gusts in the 20-30 knot range in most areas, and up to 35 knots northeast of Lake Erie including KBUF, KIAG, and KROC. Outlook... Wednesday through Thursday night...VFR/MVFR with some local IFR at times. Numerous rounds of showers and scattered thunderstorms. Friday...VFR/MVFR with showers likely. Saturday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers later in the afternoon. && .MARINE... Southwest winds will increase again today as a weak cold front crosses the eastern Great Lakes. The cold lake waters will tend to stabilize the boundary layer over the lakes, with stronger winds focusing on land. The most likely areas to see a period of Small Craft Advisory worthy winds today will be the Niagara River and the western end of Lake Ontario. Rounds of showers and scattered thunderstorms will cross the lower Great Lakes today through Thursday. A few storms may produce locally higher winds and waves along with lightning strikes. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for LOZ030-042. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hitchcock/PP AVIATION...Hitchcock MARINE...Hitchcock  292 FXUS65 KVEF 140922 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 222 AM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Clear skies and warming temperatures expected Wednesday and Thursday with gusty winds and cool temperatures return late-week. && .DISCUSSION...Today through Monday. This morning, very light radar returns continue across far southern Nevada and far northwestern Arizona. As the associated area of low pressure continues to push eastward, skies will clear behind it, allowing for a mostly sunny Tuesday. Minor ridging sets up today and Wednesday, allowing temperatures to increase back toward seasonal normals. This will be brief, though, as a closed area of low pressure is expected to drop through the southern Great Basin from the Gulf of Alaska late-week. This system has cold origins, and as a result, will bring along with it a stark temperature drop as its cold front pushes through the region. Along with a drop in temperatures, gusty pre-frontal southwest winds can be expected areawide on Thursday, with wind gusts typically between 35 and 45 mph with greater values in the higher terrain. Expect gusty post- frontal north winds Thursday night and Friday, with strongest wind speeds along north-south valleys, such as along the Colorado River Valley. Will continue to assess the need and timing of wind-related headlines over the next few shifts. Precipitation chances largely remain north of our forecast area, though portions of Lincoln County have a 20 to 30 percent chance of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms on Thursday. Snow levels rapidly drop below 3000 feet, so a dusting of snow in the higher elevations of northern Lincoln County cannot be ruled out. High pressure returns over the weekend, allowing skies to clear and temperatures to rebound back closer to seasonal normals. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Winds at or below 8KT are expected today and tonight. Light and variable winds will become south to southeast this afternoon, then will transition to the southwest after sunset. FEW to SCT clouds will develop this afternoon around 8000-10kft, otherwise clear skies are expected. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Isolated showers in southern Nevada and northwest Arizona will dissipate through the early morning hours, then a dry forecast is expected the rest of the period. Winds will be lighter today across the region and generally favor typical wind directional patterns. Scattered daytime cumulus clouds will develop this afternoon, mainly over southern Nevada and western Arizona, but VFR conditions are expected across the region today and tonight. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Soulat AVIATION...Nickerson For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter  492 FXUS63 KDTX 140923 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 523 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Stretch of warm conditions throughout the work week with daytime temperatures in the 70s each day for most locations. - There is a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms Tuesday night, mainly between 8 pm and 2 am. Storms will be capable of producing wind gusts to 60 mph, large hail and isolated tornadoes. - There is a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms Wednesday and still another round of storms possible Thursday. - Each episode of storms brings the possibility for locally heavy rainfall. && .AVIATION... Showers and thunderstorms exiting the state 11-14z. Borderline MVFR/VFR low clouds leftover for a good portion of the day. A pronounced mid level dry slot is expected to reside over southeast Michigan this afternoon, which should help limit any potential convection from going up. Uncertainty if the low VFR/borderline MVFR clouds will mix out today underneath this general subsidence. Increasing low level southwest flow (gusts 20-30 knots) and instability should once again spawn a thunderstorm complex over or in the vicinity of Southern Wisconsin late in the day with potential arrival over southeast Michigan in the late evening. Activity will likely persist through the night as the southwest low level jet continues to feed moisture and instability into the region. DTW/D21 Convection...Showers and thunderstorm exit shortly after taf time. The bulk of the day looks to be dry before another round of storms develops late this evening and especially overnight. .DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Medium for ceilings aob 5000 feet today, high tonight. * Low for thunderstorms today, then becoming medium late this evening and tonight. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 306 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 DISCUSSION... The well advertised, several day long, active stretch of weather is underway. The warm front has become established across northern MI with the broad surface low back over Iowa. The most recent mid level wave ejecting from the longwave trough over the western conus pairing with a strong low level jet has resulted in an expansive line of convection spanning from northern MI back into southern MN early this morning. The best instability and shear remain to the west but as the jet strengthens and pushes east, it will bring increasing levels of shear and instability into southern MI. Forecast starts with Severe Thunderstorm Watch #107 across Mid MI to account for the current upstream activity tracking through the region overnight. This will mostly be for a hail and wind threat. Last of the overnight convection should be east of the area for the most part by 12Z this morning leaving us in a bit of a lull through the early part of the day. Many of the hires models still show hints of precip along the warm front at times this afternoon which wouldn't be out of the question with the strength of warm air advection and wealth of instability (2k J/kg) present, but we'll lack stronger upper level forcing until later this afternoon and evening when the next mid level shortwave and convectively driven surface low ripple along the front through southern MI. SPC continues to have the whole area in a Slight Risk of severe storms which looks to target the 00-06Z window this evening into tonight. With similar overall setup, forcing, low level jet, moisture quality, CAPE, 40 knots of shear, and steep mid level lapse rates, etc to what is going on in the Midwest and Great Lakes tonight, see no reason this risk should change moving forward. Risks will be large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. Even after the initial convective cluster rolls through, the upper level trough will drift over the Midwest by late Tuesday night which will steer additional mid level energy across the area with the stall front still draped across Mid MI. This keeps southern MI in a Marginal Risk for additional severe weather on Wednesday. Additionally, a growing threat will be for possible flooding. With PWATs up around 1.25 inches or more through the period, and surface dewpoints in the 60s, there will be ample moisture for these storms to use. QPF during the period of time from Tuesday night through Wednesday night is around 1.5 inches across the whole CWA. With the potential for convection training over the same locations, some local probabilistic guidance shows the potential for 2 to 4 inches of rainfall during this time. This combined with previous ground soaking rain over the last week and several rivers already running high could lead to flooding concerns. WPC has a portion of the area in a Slight Risk on Tuesday and Marginal Risk on Wednesday. Upper level trough will cross the area on Thursday providing yet another chance for storms. Mild conditions continue on Friday but we should get a break from precip with increasing heights aloft and surface ridging sliding through. This looks to be a short lived break though as the next deep trough is already working east across the Plains which will be additional precip chances through the weekend. MARINE... Showers and thunderstorms exit east this morning in favor of drier weather by afternoon. Southwest flow reemerges across the south with a gradual veering trend in wind direction to the north as a warm front settles near Saginaw Bay. This front will be the focus for another round of showers and thunderstorms to develop late this evening and overnight. Some of these storms may be strong to severe, capable of large hail, heavy rain, and wind gusts over 34 knots. This unsettled pattern persist into the mid-week period. Wind and wave concerns will mainly be tied to thunderstorm activity. HYDROLOGY... An active pattern will bring periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms tonight through Thursday. Each episode brings the possibility for locally heavy rainfall, particularly where focused areas of thunderstorms develop. Rainfall amounts of half an inch to an inch will be possible for a round of rain tonight. Additional rainfall between a half and one and a half inches currently forecast to fall between Wednesday and Thursday. While widespread flooding is not expected, some minor flooding of low lying, poor drainage and urban areas along with rises on area rivers are possible. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ AVIATION.....SF DISCUSSION...DRK MARINE.......MV HYDROLOGY....DRK You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.  099 FXUS63 KARX 140927 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 427 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe storms possible today, primarily for the southeastern half of the forecast area with large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rain causing flooding as the primary concerns. Secondary concern of isolated tornadoes. - Storm chances continue through Tuesday night and Wednesday, eventually ceasing temporarily through Thursday. Additional strong to severe storm chances return Friday afternoon/evening/night. && .UPDATE... Issued at 425 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 With visibilities dropping to 1/2 to 1/4 of a mile in the wake of our rainfall yesterday, have issued a short dense fog advisory to cover the morning commute window. Stratus building southward from west-central WI and the Twin Cities area, could result in the fog lifting from north south and will adjust the advisory footprint as needed over the next few hours. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1243 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Strong to Severe Storm Chances Today: As main line of storms progresses east-southeast of the local forecast area early this morning, return flow is quickly reinvigorating across central Iowa on early morning observations. The 60 degree isodrosotherm roughly collocated with 1" PWATs expected to return through most of the forecast area today aided by Rocky Mountain Low cyclogenesis progressing slightly northeast. Similar to Monday, the initial warm frontal passage increases low precipitation potential through the late morning/early afternoon before additional forcing and instability through the late afternoon and evening further increases local storm threat. Current confidence for northern extent is farther south than Monday, bifurcating the southeastern half of the forecast area with 1000+ J/kg (max 3000 J/kg) of SBCAPE concurrent with little to no SBCIN. The low loses conformity as it progresses northeast, becoming a meager low level trough bifurcating the forecast area. Resultant straight line hodographs exhibit unidirectional shear values capable of splitting supercells causing large hail and damaging winds primarily with an isolated tornado risk. Storm Chances Tonight Through Wednesday Night: High resolution models disagree on subsequent storm chances with most frequent storm solution seen in most recent HRRR (14.00Z) perpetuating storm chances Tuesday night, Wednesday morning, Wednesday afternoon, and Wednesday evening as the low level jet converges enhanced moisture along the locally lingering boundary until cyclogenesis and a low level trough passes overnight Wednesday into Thursday. While this is the most frequent outlier solution, most other high resolution models suggest some semblance of frequent storms through Wednesday evening. Similar to Today, large hail and damaging winds will be the main concern with isolated tornadoes possible Wednesday afternoon/evening given diurnal influence permitting convection potentially becoming surface based where storms set up. Storm Chances Return Friday: A reprieve in storm and precipitation chances on Thursday ceases Friday as another Rocky Mountain low enhances meridional low level moisture transport, returning strong to severe storm potential for some of the Upper Midwest. While the longer forecast hour limits overall confidence, enhanced cyclogenesis permits increased tapping into the anomalous moisture and accompanying instability, keeping precipitation probabilities high (70%+). && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1226 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The main line of storms through Monday evening covers the periphery of the local forecast area from northeast Iowa into southwest and central Wisconsin at 14.06Z TAF issuance. A narrow line of storms persists shifting east behind this main line, progressing just south of KRST TAF site towards KLSE TAF site. Resultant increase in TSRA duration at KLSE given ongoing observations. Subsequent low level saturation causes LIFR-VLIFR ceilings/visibilities with FG/BR into Tuesday morning. As the warm, moist air returns through late Tuesday morning, thunderstorm chances return from southwest to northeast primarily affecting smaller airports from northeast Iowa into southwest Wisconsin. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1226 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Anomalous moisture of the last couple days has resulted in flash flooding where strongest storms result in heavy rainfall. Additional river rises have prompted opening of river gates given expected additional daily precipitation. Highest observations from Monday's storms seen in a band from southeast Minnesota through western and central Wisconsin of 2"+. Therefore, primary area of concern for subsequent flooding would be in these areas should storms progresses as far north Tuesday. Confidence in rainfall reaching farther north into central Wisconsin Wednesday and Friday keeps heightened awareness for flooding concerns. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for WIZ029- 032>034. MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MNZ079- 086>088-094-095. IA...None. && $$ UPDATE...Skow DISCUSSION...JAR AVIATION...JAR HYDROLOGY...JAR  080 FXUS64 KLUB 140928 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 428 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 428 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - A dryline will bring chances for severe storms to areas off the Caprock Tuesday, with dry and windy conditions west of the escarpment. - Critical fire danger is expected Tuesday afternoon for western portions of the Caprock which have not seen beneficial rainfall over the past week. - Storm chances continue through early Friday, mainly off the Caprock, with drier and cooler weather expected for the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 428 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The previous thinking in the short-term discussion below remains on track, but trends in high-resolution guidance have shown an increasing potential for the development of supercells this evening (00Z/7 PM CDT and beyond) across portions of the Rolling Plains. As the dryline begins to translate westward after 00Z, intensification of the low-level jet will occur atop a corridor strengthening convergence along the retreating dryline. These mesoscale interactions would serve as the impetus for the initiation of surface-based supercells this evening, and if this comes to fruition, then storms may pose a risk for tornadoes across the Rolling Plains into the night. Some of the recent forecast soundings have indicated inflow-layer storm-relative winds intensifying to near 35 kt amidst dewpoints in the middle 60s this evening, the latter of which are already present in the Rolling Plains per recent WTM data. Retreating drylines at night in the presence of low-end windy conditions, such as the case this evening, are worth keeping an eye on when it comes to the potential for tornadoes. Sincavage && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Tuesday night) Issued at 1024 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Water vapor imagery late Monday evening highlights a belt of moist and unsettled southwest flow aloft in place over the West TX region, a pattern which will persist through the short term period as a compact mid/upper level low moves over the Four Corners. The dryline will continue to retreat westward through the rest of the overnight, and will position roughly from Denver City to Plainview to Memphis by sunrise. Overnight storms look unlikely, but we could still see an isolated cell or two develop over the southeastern Rolling Plains during the early morning hours as a modest low level jet focuses within a pocket of elevated instability. The dryline will mix eastward after daybreak Tuesday, especially on the Caprock where moisture will be quite shallow. Another warm and breezy to low end windy day will result west of the dryline as deep mixing taps into ~35kt flow at 700mb and up to 65kt at 500mb, which combined with the warm conditions will result in critical fire danger on the Caprock for areas which have not benefited from rainfall over the past week or so. Despite the strengthening flow aloft, the dryline is expected to slow its eastward progression once it moves east of the Caprock Escarpment given deeper moisture in place there, with dewpoints likely to remain above 50F over most of the Rolling Plains and SE TX Panhandle Tuesday afternoon. In general, it still appears the dryline circulation itself will be relatively weak Tuesday. However, convective temperatures will be easily within reach, and slightly better large scale forcing for ascent compared to Monday should result in a bit higher coverage of storms along and east of the dryline on Tuesday afternoon. Within the moist sector, forecast soundings depict MLCAPE values near or above 1500 J/kg, along with bulk shear magnitudes nearing 50kt. This will be sufficient for a few severe storms Tuesday afternoon over the Rolling Plains and SE TX Panhandle capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts, although this should be a relatively early show with strong flow aloft kicking storms to our east by early evening. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 1024 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Wednesday is expected to be a relatively quiet and warm day as the above-mentioned upper trough exits into the central plains states, with dry westerly surface flow pushing most appreciable near-surface moisture and associated storm chances to our east. That being said, a subset of guidance does keep the dryline barely over our eastern zones, so will maintain low storm chances over the eastern edge of the Rolling Plains through late Wednesday given uncertainty in the dryline positioning. Southwest flow aloft returns by Thursday as the next upper trough deepens over the Great Basin, which will bring enough near-surface moisture northward to result in mainly nocturnal storm chances Thursday night into early Friday courtesy of a strengthening low level jet. However, this period of southwest flow aloft and associated precipitation chances will be relatively short- lived given the progressive nature of the upper trough, which is progged to quickly shift eastward with the trough axis set to be over the Dakotas by early Saturday. This evolution will send a cold front southward through our area sometime in the late Friday to Saturday period, with good consensus among models indicating a drier and cooler period through at least the first half of the weekend. Return flow looks likely to reestablish Sunday and beyond with ensembles in decent agreement bringing low chances for showers and storms back to the region by early next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Winds will remain breezy through sunrise at KCDS, KLBB, and KPVW, with winds expected to accelerate by the late morning hours at all terminals. Southwesterly gusts between 30-35 kt will be common this afternoon at all terminals, with BLDU possible at KLBB and KPVW. TSTMs will be possible INVOF KCDS this evening, and a PROB30 group has been introduced with this TAF period. VFR will prevail otherwise at all terminals. Sincavage && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1024 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Strong southwest winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 45 mph are expected across most of the Caprock on Tuesday afternoon. Combined with RH values in the 15 to 20 percent range, RFTI values of 3 to 5 appear likely over the southwestern TX Panhandle and western portions of the Caprock on Tuesday. Critical fire weather conditions are therefore expected in this area given the lack of recent beneficial rainfall compared to locations farther east. Therefore, a Red Flag Warning is in effect from noon to 8 PM Tuesday for the SW TX Panhandle and western Caprock. A Fire Danger Statement is in effect for areas farther east near the edge of the Caprock where slightly higher RH is expected in closer proximity to the dryline. Areas off the Caprock (especially the Rolling Plains) are expected to remain relatively humid east of the dryline, and fire weather concerns will be relatively low for these locations. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>025-027>030-033-034-039. Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>023-027>029. && $$ UPDATE...09 SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...09  015 FXUS66 KSEW 140935 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 235 AM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Cool, wet and windy conditions Tuesday into Wednesday with periods of heavy snow in the mountains. Drier weather is in store Thursday and Friday with high pressure. Wetter weather returns over the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...Wet and windy conditions on tap today as a strong Pacific storm system sweeps through western WA. The main impact will be periods of heavy mountain snow, including snow at all Cascade passes - Winter Storm Warnings are in effect. Snow levels will hover around 3500 ft today but will drop to 1500-2000 tonight into Wednesday. The bulk of the heavy snow will fall tonight but there will be lingering snow showers moving through Wednesday. Mean 48-hr storm total amounts range from 10 to 20" with highest amounts over the volcanoes. Heavy snow is also possible for the Olympics and a Winter Weather Advisory is also in effect (primarily for today and tonight). In addition, it'll be windy today with gusts to 20-30 mph common across most lowland areas. Winds will peak this evening but still remain in 15-25 mph range overnight. A deep upper low will be overhead on Wednesday with cool and showery conditions. As mentioned above, we'll still see snow showers in the mountains although snow rates will ease. The air mass is slightly unstable with a chance of thunderstorms too, especially near the coast. Showers will taper off Wednesday night as the low opens to a trough and exits east. It's not as windy but will be chilly with morning lows in the 30s and highs in the 40s to around 50. We're under dry northerly flow on Thursday as high pressure forms offshore. Morning temperatures will remain cool and in the 30s with freezing temps and frost possible across the south sound. Highs will be a little warmer and in the 50s with sunbreaks. 33 && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...High pressure will shift inland on Friday for more dry and stable weather. Morning lows will still track on the cool-side with possible frost around the south sound. The ridge departs on Saturday with a return of moist SW flow. Showers associated with an offshore low may clip the coast during the afternoon and evening. Showers will spread inland on Sunday as the low shifts farther east and inland. By Monday, this system shifts to our south, over CA/NV, with a brief break in the weather over western WA. 33 && .AVIATION...A shortwave trough/cold front will swing through the terminals today. Flow aloft will remain westerly with a jet core moving ashore and southward through the day. Showers in the north interior/coast this morning will become widespread and a steady rain later in the day (snow in the mountains above 3,500 ft). There is a 15-20% chance of thunder in the afternoon/evening for coastal terminals, and the north interior (especially with a post-front convergence zone likely to produce localized heavier rain around/east of KPAE). Precipitation post-front wraps up around 10Z. Wednesday's system will produce scattered showers under an unstable airmass/trough (thunder threat is more widespread across the terminals at 20-25%). Ceilings: MVFR ceilings increase in coverage through the morning, with higher likelihood of IFR conditions in mountain/coastal areas in the afternoon/evening, as well as in heavier rain. Visibilities will decrease this afternoon with rain down to 3-5 SM (less than 3 SM along the coast), with localized drops likely in heavier showers. Southwest winds 8-12 kt gusting to 20 kt increase to 10-20 kt gusting to 30 kt from 15Z Tuesday - 06Z Wednesday, then becoming light. KSEA...Showers arriving this morning, becoming a more steady rain later this afternoon/evening. Possible convergence zone to the north of the terminal (around KPAE). MVFR ceilings this morning likely to continue through late tonight/Wednesday before improving to VFR. Visibility drops down to 3-5 SM likely with the steadier precipitation this afternoon/evening. Southwest winds 8-12 kt gusting to 20 kt increases to 10-20 kt gusting to 30 kt from 15-18Z Tuesday through 06Z Wednesday. Thunder threat over the terminal today is less than 10%, but increases to 20-25% Wednesday, with the coverage being more scattered. HPR && .MARINE...A trough/cold front will cut over the waters today with widespread showers/steady rain. There is a 20% chance of thunder for the inner coastal waters, and the north interior waters. Winds have begun to pick up out of the southwest this morning ahead of the front. This will peak in the interior waters late this morning/tonight with winds of 20-30 kt. The coastal waters/Strait of Juan de Fuca will see the strongest winds around the same time from the west, and at around the same magnitude (20-30 kt). Small craft advisories remain in effect in these areas with the frontal passage. The winds decrease Wednesday, although the pattern will remain unsettled with a cool trough producing scattered showers and a 20-25% chance of thunder across all waters. Conditions dry out Thursday through next weekend, with another system Sunday potentially producing gusty winds in the coastal waters. Seas increase from 4-6 ft to 9-12 ft Tuesday, lingering at 8-10 ft through Thursday, then decreasing to 3-5 ft Friday through SUnday before building back to 8-10 ft. HPR && .HYDROLOGY...No river flooding the next 7 days. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Winter Storm Warning from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT Wednesday for Cascades of Pierce and Lewis Counties- Cascades of Snohomish and Northern King Counties-Cascades of Southern King County-Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit Counties. Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for Olympics. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Wednesday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 2 AM PDT Wednesday for Admiralty Inlet-Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 2 AM PDT Wednesday for Puget Sound and Hood Canal. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 5 AM PDT Thursday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm. && $$  535 FXPQ50 PGUM 140952 AFDGUM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tiyan GU 752 PM ChST Tue Apr 14 2026 .Marianas Synopsis... Super Typhoon Sinlaku is seen just south-southeast of Tinian and Saipan this evening. Tropical storm force winds continue across Rota and Guam, with typhoon force winds occurring at Tinian and Saipan. Sinlaku continues to slowly move toward Tinian and Saipan. Numerous to widespread locally heavy showers are seen across the Marianas, with isolated thunderstorms near the eye wall. && .Discussion... Not much has changed from the previous forecast. Super Typhoon Sinlaku continues to track toward Tinian and Saipan. Tropical storm force winds remain from south of Guam to the northern CNMI, with typhoon force winds over Tinian and Saipan. Winds will continue to increase at both Tinian and Saipan, reaching as high as 150 mph with gusts over 180 mph. Therefore, an Extreme Wind Warning was issued for both islands. This warning will be updated through the night until winds look to fall below 115 mph sustained. After eye passage at Tinian and Saipan, winds will gradually subside, but look to remain at or above tropical storm force through Thursday afternoon. For Guam and Rota, winds are peaking or have just peaked and will be slowly subsiding at both locations later tonight, though tropical storm force winds look to continue at Guam Wednesday evening and at Rota until after midnight Wednesday. After STY Sinlaku moves out of the Marianas, a dry pattern will move into the region and persist for several days after. && .Marine... Marine conditions remain dangerous across the Marianas. Seas have peaked over Guam and Rota waters and are expected to slowly subside over the next few days. Seas peaked in Guam at 26 feet, as shown by Ipan buoy in the early morning hours, while remaining around 25 to 30 feet in Rota waters. For Tinian and Saipan, seas continue to increase, with Tanapag buoy showing seas of around 26 feet, while altimetry shows over 35 feet to the east of the eye of Sinlaku. Seas look to peak for Tinian and Saipan at around 40 feet tonight, beginning to subside after Sinlaku moves farther north, away from the islands. Small craft advisory level seas to hazardous seas look to continue into the weekend, possibly falling below 10 feet for Guam and Rota early in the weekend and for Tinian and Saipan late in the weekend. && .Hydrology... The Ensemble Tropical Rainfall Potential (ETRaP) estimates from microwave satellite data shows that 12 to 20 additional inches of rainfall are possible near the center. With the past few forecasts supporting passage near or over Tinian and Saipan, these islands will have the greatest potential for that rainfall. Guam could still see a storm total of 6 to 12 inches, with Rota potentially reaching 10 to 20 inches. Flash Flooding is possible so a Flood Warning was issued for all 4 islands. && .Tropical Systems... As of the 700 PM ChST PGUA radar fix, Super Typhoon Sinlaku was centered near 14.7N 145.9E, or about 25 miles southeast of Tinian airport, 30 miles south-southeast of Saipan airport, and 115 miles northeast of Guam. The latest 6-hourly track shows a steady west- northwest motion of around 5 mph at 300 degrees, with the eye looking to move directly over or just south of Tinian. However, Sinlaku looks to be stalling just southeast of Tinian, remaining nearly stationary over the last hour or two. Radar reflectivity depicts the appearance of concentric eyewalls, with the primary eyewall around 10 to 15 miles across and the secondary eyewall around 50 miles across. Bands of high reflectivity and heavy showers within the outermost eyewall are rotating over Saipan and Tinian this evening as the center of Sinlaku stalls to the southeast, moving west to southwest across the islands. Saipan has begun to see sustained typhoon force winds of 78 mph gusting to 113 mph, while Guam is experiencing sustained winds around 50 mph gusting to 76 mph this evening. As Sinlaku nears Tinian and Saipan, winds will continue to increase, with very dangerous, rapidly worsening conditions tonight as the eyewall begins to move overhead, and sustained Category 4 typhoon force winds develop, with 130 to 150 mph winds gusting to 175 mph. Outside of the eyewall, the highest reflectivities and heaviest showers are presently seen in the outer rain bands between Guam and Rota, west and south of Guam, and just north to northeast of Rota within the secondary eyewall. The latest forecast track from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) maintains a north-northwest passage of Sinlaku over or near Tinian and Saipan late tonight with an increase in forward speed, but potentially passing directly over or south of Tinian if the current track observed on radar holds. Sinlaku's track looks to shift more northward after it crosses Tinian and Saipan, moving through the northern CNMI just west of Alamagan, Pagan, and Agrihan on Wednesday through Thursday night, before making a northeast turn away by the end of the week. Super Typhoon Sinlaku is on a gradual weakening trend through the next few days, but is expected to maintain Category 4 strength as it crosses the Marianas tonight. && .Eastern Micronesia... Satellite imagery late this afternoon shows a broadly unsettled pattern across much of the Marshall Islands and relatively quiet conditions near Pohnpei and Kosrae. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen over much of the RMI including Majuro and Kwajalein Atolls, extending further northwest, passing west of Wake Island, within the broad, trailing convergence into Super Typhoon Sinlaku, far west-northwest of the region. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen south of Pohnpei and Kosrae, within the surface trough extending southwest from STY Sinlaku, passing near Chuuk and south of Pohnpei and Kosrae. The broad area of convergence will gradually shift northward with the movement of Sinlaku and fragment through rest of the week, maintaining scattered to numerous showers for the RMI, including Majuro, over the next few days, while relatively drier conditions persist for Kosrae and Pohnpei. Latest altimetry data shows 6 to 8 foot seas across much of the region. Elevated west to northwest swell will maintain elevated, potentially hazardous surf along west- facing reefs of Pohnpei through at least the next day or two. && .Western Micronesia... Satellite imagery shows partly to mostly cloudy skies and patchy showers across the region as Super Typhoon (STY) Sinlaku continues to move across the Marianas, further distancing itself from the region. The Small Craft Advisory, High Surf Advisory, and the Coastal Flood Statement was allowed to expire for Chuuk as conditions are expected to gradually improve as Sinlaku moves further away. For Yap and Palau, marine and surf conditions will be the main concern this week. Large northeast swell from distant Super Typhoon Sinlaku continues to produce hazardous seas within Yap coastal waters and could peak around 11 to 13 feet before slowly tapering off on Thursday. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for Yap through Thursday afternoon. This long-period swell is also expected to bring hazardous surf along north facing reefs of Yap, possibly reaching hazardous levels of 12 feet for east-facing reefs. Hazardous surf, combined with the higher high tides with the new moon cycle, there may be a concern for some minor coastal inundation along northern and eastern shorelines at times of high tide over the next few days. Hazardous surf is also expected at Palau, likely reaching hazardous levels of at least 9 feet along north facing reefs and 12 feet along east facing reefs overnight. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...Coastal Flood Warning until 5 AM ChST Thursday for GUZ001. Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for GUZ001. High Surf Warning until 6 PM ChST Thursday for GUZ001. Tropical Storm Warning for GUZ001. Typhoon Watch for GUZ001. MP...Coastal Flood Warning until 5 AM ChST Thursday for MPZ001>003. Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for MPZ001>003. High Surf Warning until 6 PM ChST Thursday for MPZ001>003. Typhoon Warning for MPZ001>003. Marianas Waters...Tropical Storm Warning for PMZ151. Typhoon Watch for PMZ151. Typhoon Warning for PMZ152>154. && $$ Marianas: Kleeschulte East Micronesia/Tropical: DeCou/Schank West Micronesia: Cruz/Schank IDSS: Mesa  671 FXUS66 KPDT 140953 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 253 AM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mountain snow returns today through Thursday - Near to sub-freezing temperatures in the lower elevations Thursday and Friday mornings - Drier conditions return Friday into Saturday, but precip chances will develop again by Sunday && .DISCUSSION...Today through Thursday: A strong upper low with a leading cold front dropping out of the Gulf of Alaska will move across the PacNW starting today, bringing with it widespread rain and mountain snow chances (confidence 80-85%). The best precipitation chances in the lower elevations will be associated with the cold front passage late tonight through Wednesday afternoon, with chances tapering off late Wednesday through Thursday. The upper low and cold front will bring a much colder airmass to the region, resulting in snow levels steadily dropping to below pass levels by tonight, and between 1.5kft to 2kft by Wednesday evening. While the bulk of precip will fall before Wednesday evening in the lower elevations, portions of central and north central OR will see light rain transition to light snow. Otherwise, moderate to locally heavy snow showers will develop across the Cascade crest and the northern Blues this evening through Wednesday evening, with snow tapering off through Wednesday night and Thursday. Multiple winter weather headlines are in effect today through Wednesday night in anticipation of impacts from the heavy mountain snow. There remains high confidence (80-85%) in snow accumulations between 6-12 inches for the OR Cascade east slopes above 4000 feet, 4-8 inches for the upper east slopes of the WA Cascade east slopes, and 5-10 inches for the Northern Blues above 4500 feet. The heaviest snow accumulations are expected later tonight as the cold front slides through the region, with upslope snow showers persisting through the remainder of Wednesday. Breezy winds will continue to impact the region through the midweek as the cold front passage and continued cold air advection into the forecast area result in tightened pressure gradients. Confidence is moderate-high (55-85%) that westerly winds will remain between 15-30mph and gusts 25-45mph through the midweek. That said, wind-prone areas in the Columbia Basin and Blue mountain foothills will see a 65-85% chance of gusts exceeding 45 mph each day through Thursday. Otherwise, clearing skies, dry surface conditions, and cold air advection into the region will result in near to below freezing morning temperatures Thursday and Friday. Of particular concern are the Kittitas and Yakima valleys, where there is 65-85% chance of morning lows below freezing Thursday and Friday. Friday through Monday: Ensemble guidance is in good agreement of upper level ridging sliding across the PacNW with dry conditions and light winds by Friday (confidence 60-75%). The forecast area will remain under the influence of the ridge through Saturday afternoon, but ensemble members disagree on the evolution of the synoptic pattern late Saturday into Monday. That said, there is good agreement in some form of upper low bringing another round of precipitation chances to the region Sunday into early next week. Lawhorn/82 && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...VFR conditions continue for the TAF sites. Will see precipitation occur for all TAF sites by the afternoon hours along with some breezy to locally windy conditions. Winds could gust up to 35 mph, especially in the Columbia Basin sites including the DLS. Temporary sub-VFR conditions are possible to develop (5-15 percent chance) if more moderate showers develop over TAF areas, lowering VIS and/or CIGs. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 58 41 52 31 / 10 60 90 40 ALW 58 42 52 34 / 20 80 100 60 PSC 61 44 58 34 / 20 40 70 20 YKM 58 39 55 30 / 20 60 30 10 HRI 60 42 57 33 / 10 40 80 20 ELN 51 32 48 29 / 40 70 30 10 RDM 56 35 49 23 / 10 50 90 30 LGD 56 39 49 29 / 10 90 100 70 GCD 58 38 48 26 / 10 70 100 70 DLS 58 41 54 35 / 40 80 70 20 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT Wednesday for WAZ030. Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT Wednesday for WAZ522. OR...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT Wednesday for ORZ502. Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ509. && $$ DISCUSSION...82 AVIATION...95