791 FXUS61 KRLX 141000 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 600 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms has been expanded by the Storm Prediction Center to include northern portions of the forecast area for this afternoon and evening, and far northwestern portions of the forecast area for Wednesday afternoon and evening. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) A summer-like pattern resumes with record to near-record heat, and mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms possible through the week that offer little drought relief. There is a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms across northern portions of the area this afternoon and evening, which then shifts to far northwestern portions of the area for Wednesday afternoon and evening. - 2) Showers and thunderstorms are more likely Thursday night as a system crosses. - 3) Showers and thunderstorms are again likely Saturday night, when a cold front crosses. - 4) The strong cold front will break the summer pattern but provide minimal drought relief, with a stretch of dry, cooler weather to begin the new week. Morning frost is possible. - 5) Minimum afternoon relative humidity percentiles will bottom out in the 20s and 30s through at least the next 7 days. With breezy conditions most days, and only a couple of opportunities for a conditional wetting rain, afternoon and evening fire danger is likely to be enhanced. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A mid/upper-level ridge building slightly through Wednesday, and then rebuilding Friday behind a Thursday/Thursday night system, will resume the summer-like weather, with record to near-record heat through the balance of the week, along with unseasonably mild nights. Weak, flat mid/upper-level short wave troughs will somewhat focus low coverage showers and thunderstorms today, with isolated elevated convection this morning. With a corridor of increased shear and instability to the north and west, thunderstorms this afternoon and evening can become strong to Marginally severe across northern portions of the forecast area, the southward extent aided by west to northwest shear/Corfidi vectors. The primary threat is damaging wind, given marginally adequate shear amid large temperature-dew point spreads. As the ridge builds, isolated to scattered convection becomes more diurnally-driven and shifts farther north and west, perhaps even entirely out of the forecast area tonight into Thursday. The Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms becomes confined to far northwestern portions of the forecast area for Wednesday afternoon and evening, the primary threat again being damaging wind given the marginally adequate shear amid large temperature-dew point spreads. Friday into early Saturday look mainly dry between systems in the next two key messages. KEY MESSAGE 2... A more stout mid/upper-level short wave trough will approach Thursday and cross Thursday night, with showers likely and thunderstorms possible. This short wave is likely to get close enough Thursday afternoon to enhance diurnal convection. Shear is forecast to increase as a result, but the lower CAPE forecast will have to be watched for possible increase with time, which would increase the severe thunderstorm threat given the increased shear. Even with the greater precipitation coverage and severe threat, precipitation amounts are not likely to provide significant drought relief. The approaching short wave may also abbreviated high temperatures a bit Thursday, as well as in its wake on Friday. KEY MESSAGE 3... Showers are likely and thunderstorms possible as a strong cold front crosses Saturday night. This system could again get close enough to enhance diurnal convection. The instability forecast will again need watched given increased shear and ideal to slightly later than ideal diurnal timing with the system. However, this will again provide minimal drought relief, especially given another dry period to follow, next key message. KEY MESSAGE 4... A period of dry, cooler weather will start the new week, as cool Canadian high pressure builds behind a large mid/upper- level long wave but transient trough moves offshore. Frost is possible Monday and especially Tuesday mornings, the latter/later of which is when the high is most likely to be overhead. KEY MESSAGE 5... Minimum afternoon relative humidity percentiles will bottom out in the 20s and 30s through at least the next 7 days. With breezy conditions most days, and only a couple of opportunities for a conditional wetting rain, afternoon and evening fire danger is likely to be enhanced. Even amid the unstable afternoon and evening conditions this week, dew points ranging from the upper 40s southeast to mid 50s to low 60s northwest are lower than typical summer values, which result in the low minimum afternoon relative humidity percentiles given the summer-like high temperatures. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A summer-like pattern continues this period, with patchy VFR stratocumulus and cumulus 4-7 kft, highest with the peak afternoon mixing height. VCTS/CB was included in northern sites PKB and CKB for the possibility of elevated convection this morning, and then for surface-based convection most sites this afternoon. There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms covering northern sites PKB and CKB (and near EKN) for this afternoon and evening. Light southwest surface flow early this morning will be gusty again today, into the 20-25 kt range, before becoming light south to southwest again tonight. Flow aloft will be light to moderate west to southwest, with enough low level flow to preclude early morning fog formation. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Thunderstorms may have direct impacts on TAF sites today. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 04/14/26 UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 EDT 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... VFR conditions will generally prevail through the week. However, brief periods of MVFR to IFR restrictions are possible within isolated showers and thunderstorms, with a higher likelihood of MVFR to IFR restrictions Thursday night and late Saturday. && .Climate... Forecast / Record High Temperatures ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Tue, 4/14 | Wed, 4/15 | Thu, 4/16 | Fri, 4/17 | ------------------------------------------------------------------------ CRW | 86 / 88 (2018) | 89 / 89 (1994) | 87 / 89 (2002) | 84 / 89 (1976) | HTS | 87 / 87 (1941) | 89 / 87 (2024) | 85 / 89 (2024) | 85 / 87 (1976) | CKB | 83 / 87 (2018) | 86 / 83 (1974) | 83 / 86 (2002) | 79 / 88 (1969) | PKB | 85 / 85 (1941) | 88 / 84 (2024) | 85 / 88 (2002) | 82 / 89 (1976) | BKW | 80 / 83 (2018) | 84 / 82 (2012) | 82 / 84 (2002) | 79 / 84 (1976) | EKN | 82 / 85 (2018) | 85 / 81 (2012) | 82 / 85 (2012) | 77 / 87 (1976) | ------------------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------- Sat, 4/18 | --------------------- CRW | 89 / 90 (2019) | HTS | 88 / 89 (1955) | CKB | 86 / 88 (1976) | PKB | 87 / 91 (1976) | BKW | 83 / 86 (1976) | EKN | 84 / 88 (1976) | --------------------- && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TRM AVIATION...TRM CLIMATE...TRM  454 FXUS66 KLOX 141002 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 302 AM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .SYNOPSIS...13/755 PM. Showers over the area have diminished, with just a few isolated light showers this evening. Dry and warmer weather is expected for the remainder of this week. Gusty northerly winds will affect much of the area on Thursday, shifting to northeast and becoming focused over Los Angeles and Ventura Counties on Friday. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...14/1233 AM. Clear skies and a cool airmass will lead to below normal lows early this morning. Skies will be sunny, save for a grip of upslope clouds along the north slopes near the Kern County line. Plenty of sunshine and rising hgts will bring 3 to 6 locally 8 degrees of warming to the area today. Max temps across the csts/vlys will end up mostly in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Look for advisory level wind gusts to develop across the western portions of the Santa Ynez range and the SBA south coast. A weak ridge will be over the area on Wednesday. Hgts will rise to about 573 dam. At the sfc there will be weak onshore flow to the east and weak offshore flow from the north. There will likely be some morning low clouds with the best chance across the Central Coast. Skies will be partly cloudy in the afternoon as some mid level clouds work their way through the ridge. Max temps will not change much Tuesday's values. The northerly offshore flow will continue Wednesday night. The winds across the SBA south coast will be a little weaker and may not reach advisory levels, but there will be an uptick in the winds through the i-5 corridor. A weak eddy is forecast to bring Low clouds and fog the LA and VTA cst as well as the San Gabriel Vly - this is a pretty low confidence fcst given the northerly offshore push and would not be surprised if the low clouds stay more to the south. An inside slider will start its journey down the CA/NV line on Thursday. Hgts will lower to around 568 dam. Sfc grads will not change much with offshore flow from the north and onshore flow to the east. The northerly offshore flow will bring a few degrees of warming to the csts and vlys, but will cool the far interior by dragging in cooler air from the San Joaquin Vly. Most max temps will end up a degree or two blo normal. .LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...14/234 AM. As is typical with the passage of an inside slider, a Santa Ana wind event will set up. About 4 mb of offshore flow will develop from both the N and E. There is not much upper level support to help the gradients out, but even so there will likely be low end advisory level gusts in the windier locations. Downsloping winds will bring 3 to 5 degrees of warming to most of the csts and vlys. The absence of cool air advection will allow the interior to warm 2 to 4 degrees. Due west flow moves in at the upper levels on Saturday. There will still be 2 to 3 degrees of offshore flow in the morning, but with no upper support it will only generate sub advisory canyon winds. Max temps will continue to warm with the offshore flow and 3 to 5 degrees of additional warm seems likely. This will bring max temps up into the upper 70s to mid 80s for most of csts/vlys which is 4 to 8 degrees above normal. The pattern will shift on Sunday as a large upper low moves closer to the Pacific NW. Srn CA will not feel the effects of the low, but the switch to onshore flow will bring a chc of coastal low clouds along with 2 to 4 degrees of cooling across most of the csts and vlys. Mdls and ensembles continue to struggle with the strength and location of the upper low on Monday. The AI-mdls favor the GFS solution of a slower and colder track. Right now the algorithmically adjusted blended ensemble forecast brings only a slight chc of rain to the north of Point Conception. The AI- solutions along with the GFS would favor a better chc of rain across most of the area. Still its 7 days away and there will be plenty of time to seek mdl convergence. No matter what happens with the rain it will be a much cooler day by as much as 8 degrees. && .AVIATION...14/0603Z. At 0522Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer or inversion. Overall, high confidence in TAFs. There is a 20% chance of MVFR cigs at KPRB after 10Z. KLAX...High confidence in TAF. No significant easterly wind component is expected. KBUR...High confidence in TAF. && .MARINE...14/202 AM. For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Friday, high confidence in a combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas. On Thursday and Thursday night, there is a 30-40% chance of GALE force winds. For Saturday, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds. For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. For today through Thursday, high confidence in SCA level winds during the afternoon and evening hours. On Friday and Saturday, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours. For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. For today through Thursday, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel, but only a 20-30% chance of SCA level winds elsewhere. For Friday through Saturday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 4 AM PDT early this morning for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Rorke AVIATION...Rorke MARINE...RAT/Phillips SYNOPSIS...Ciliberti weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox  893 FXUS66 KSGX 141004 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 304 AM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Today and Wednesday will be dry with weakening winds with Wednesday high temperatures warming to around average. Stronger onshore flow will spreading cooling inland on Thursday with southwest to west winds for the mountains and deserts gusting to 35 to 45 mph. The flow will turn offshore on Friday with warming for the coast and valleys and continued cooling for the mountains and deserts. Northeast winds along and below the coastal slopes of the mountains will gust to 35 to 45 mph. Warmer inland with weaker winds for next weekend with high temperatures warming to around 5 to 10 degrees above average on Sunday. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... .SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)... Onshore flow will weaken today with warming and drying through Wednesday with Wednesday high temperatures warming to around average. High temperatures on Wednesday will range from the mid to upper 60s near the coast to the 70s for the valleys with the lower deserts in the upper 80s. On Thursday, a low pressure system moving inland through the northern Rockies and Great Basin will bring stronger onshore flow to southern California. High temperatures will cool a few to around 5 degrees with high temperatures on Thursday ranging from the mid to upper 60s near the coast to the lower to mid 70s for the Inland Empire with the 80s for the lower deserts. There will be stronger and gusty southwest to west winds for the mountains and deserts with gusts to 35 to 45 mph. There will also be an increase in clouds for late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. && .LONG TERM (Friday through Monday)... The flow will turn offshore on Friday with northeast winds along and below the coastal slopes of the mountains gusting to 35 to 45 mph. High temperatures on Friday will cool a few to around 5 degrees while the coast and valleys warm 5 to 10 degrees. High temperatures on Friday will range from the lower to mid 70s near the coast to the upper 70s to mid 80s for the western valleys and inland coastal areas with the lower deserts in the lower to mid 80s. There will be inland warming with weaker winds for next weekend. High temperatures on Saturday will warm around 5 degrees for the mountains, deserts, and inland valleys with the deserts warming another 5 degrees on Sunday. With the warming, Sunday high temperatures will be around 5 to 10 degrees above average, ranging from around 70 near the coast to the upper 70s to mid 80s for the valleys with the lower deserts in the lower to mid 90s. For early next week, a low pressure system will move to near the West Coast bring cooling and a chance for precipitation with continuing model differences in the timing and amplitude of this system. && .AVIATION... 140930Z...Coasts/Valleys...SCT to locally BKN low clouds between 3000-5000 feet MSL will continue this morning, most likely BKN near inland foothills. Mostly clear skies will prevail after 17Z. Patchy low clouds to gradually form and increase after 08Z overnight into Wednesday. Any cigs that form would be around 1500 feet MSL. Mountains/Deserts...Westerly wind gusts 25-35 kt through passes and on to desert slopes through 14Z. MOD up/downdrafts in lee of mountains. Clouds on coastal slopes between 3000-4500 feet MSL locally obscuring terrain through 17Z. Mostly clear and VFR conditions will prevail thereafter. && .MARINE... No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Saturday. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...17 AVIATION/MARINE...MM  594 FXUS65 KPSR 141005 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 305 AM MST Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Weak high pressure will settle back into the region today into Wednesday leading to drier conditions and eventual warmer temperatures. - Breezy to locally windy conditions are expected Thursday and Friday with elevated Fire Weather conditions focused across the Lower Colorado River Valley. - Above normal temperatures should return by early next week with lower desert highs warming into the low to mid nineties. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A weakening upper level trough is currently moving through the Desert Southwest with the low center across northwest Arizona moving northeastward into Utah. A trailing trough axis is also moving through central Arizona with isolated light showers lingering from north Phoenix into the Mogollon Rim. These showers should move out of our area by sunrise leaving clearing skies and plenty of sunshine for the rest of today. A cooler post-frontal air mass will help to keep daytime highs from reaching 80 degrees across the south-central Arizona lower deserts to at most the lower 80s across the western deserts. Weak upper level ridging is then forecast to move through the region on Wednesday helping to boost temperatures back into at least the mid 80s, or within the normal range. Drying conditions later today and on Wednesday will also lead to surface dew points dropping back into the 20s for most locations. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... By Thursday, a large Pacific weather system is slated to move southeastward through the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin leading to height falls over our region and an increasing pressure gradient. Breezy to locally windy conditions are likely to affect much of the area starting Thursday afternoon and again on Friday as the system moves by just to our north. Advisory level winds may also be possible, particularly across southeast California and the Colorado River Valley. Near normal temperatures Thursday are forecast to dip on Friday as the NBM/WPC shows highs back into a 80-85 degree range. Stronger ridging is then favored to build across the Western U.S. over the weekend pushing daytime highs to near 90 degrees Saturday and then into a 90-95 degree range for Sunday and next Monday. The weather pattern through at least the first half of next week should support continued dry weather along with at least one more weather system passing by to our north creating breezy to windy conditions. && .AVIATION...Updated at 0535Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: A cold front moved through the area earlier this evening bringing breezy conditions and VCSH to all four terminals. Some residual breeziness (gusts into the upper teens to around 20 kt) remain at all terminals except KIWA, but should subside over the next 1-2 hours. A few areas of VCSH/virga also remain in the Phoenix Metro, but should also exit the area over the next 1-2 hours. After wind speeds subside tonight, winds should generally be around 10 kt or less through the rest of the TAF period, with some occasional gusts into the teens possible tomorrow afternoon. Confidence remains low in a E/SE wind shift overnight/early tomorrow morning and winds may just stay W/SW or go light and variable. If winds were to go SE this looks to occur during the 12-17Z window. Westerly winds will reestablish tomorrow afternoon, with winds returning to their diurnal tendencies, with an E/SE shift expected late tomorrow night. Cloud cover (with bases around 7-9 kft) will gradually clear out overnight with mostly clear skies returning tomorrow morning. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Wind speeds will be aob 10 kt through the TAF period at both terminals. Winds will predominately have a westerly component at KIPL. At KBLH, current southwesterly winds will go northerly late tomorrow morning before going southeasterly tomorrow night. Skies will remain mostly clear. && .FIRE WEATHER... A weather system will exit the region today with only lingering chances for isolated light showers across the eastern Arizona high terrain this morning. Weak high pressure and drying conditions will prevail for the rest of today through Wednesday with overall light winds. MinRHs will dip to between 15-20% today and 10-15% on Wednesday as overnight recoveries become poor to fair starting tonight at 30-50%. Another passing weather system late week will likely bring increased winds and even lower RHs resulting in the potential for elevated fire weather conditions on Thursday and Friday. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kuhlman LONG TERM...Kuhlman AVIATION...Berislavich FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman  118 FXUS62 KRAH 141006 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 607 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 140 AM Tuesday... * Increased Fire Danger Statement for the western Piedmont and Sandhills through 800 PM today. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 144 AM Tuesday... 1) Dry fuels combined with lower humidity and near record heat will promote fire weather concerns through the end of the week. 2) A highly anomalous mid-level ridge will persist over the southeastern United States through late week, supporting an early- season heat wave with temperatures 15–20F or more above climatology. 3) Late-weekend pattern transition possible with low-end rain chances on Sunday with fropa...followed by cooler temps. && .DISCUSSION... As of 144 AM Tuesday... KEY MESSAGE 1... Dry fuels combined with lower humidity and near record heat will promote fire weather concerns through the end of the week. No changes to the week as far as highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and no rainfall through Saturday. The NC Forest Service has requested additional messaging along with their current state-wide burn ban. We issued an Increased Fire Danger Statement (IFD) the western Piedmont/Sandhills through 800 PM today. More statements will be needed Wednesday and beyond. KEY MESSAGE 2... A highly anomalous mid-level ridge will persist over the southeastern United States through late week, supporting an early-season heat wave with temperatures 15–20F or more above climatology. A highly anomalous mid-level ridge will persist over the southeastern United States through late week, supporting record or near-record heat across central North Carolina. Both the GFS and ECMWF deterministic and ensemble guidance remain in strong agreement depicting a robust 500-mb ridge centered over the Southeast and Mid- Atlantic. During this period, H8 temps are progged in the 15-17C range along with deep-layer thickness values approaching summer-like magnitudes. As a result, high temps will reach the upper 80s to lower 90s basically Wednesday through Friday, with the typically warmer locations southeast of RDU possibly seeing mid 90s. These values are 20F degrees or more above mid-April normals. Hazards associated with this heat may include early-season heat stress (especially vulnerable populations) due to limited acclimatization. See the climate section below for more details about the records that may be threatened with this heat wave. Key message 3...Late-weekend pattern transition possible with low- end rain chances on Sunday with fropa...followed by cooler temps. The ridge will gradually weaken and shift east over the weekend as a trough advances from the Plains. A cold frontal passage is expected on Sunday which may result in low-end rain chances. Behind the front, temps will trend closer to seasonal normals (low-mid 70s) early next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 607 AM Tuesday... Sub-tropical high pressure extending across the South Atlantic states will favor a high probability of VFR conditions through most of the week. SSW surface winds that will strengthen and become occasionally gusty with daytime heating again today 10-20 kt. Winds will become light at 5-10 kt. tonight. Outlook: Sub-tropical high pressure will favor warm, dry, and VFR conditions in cntl NC through Sat. && .CLIMATE... All-Time Records for April KGSO: 95 on 4/28/1915 KRDU: 95 on 4/23/1980 and 4/28/1896 KFAY: 96 on 4/12/1930 Record High Temperatures: April 14: KGSO: 90/1922 KRDU: 91/1941 KFAY: 93/1922 April 15: KGSO: 90/2006 KRDU: 92/1941 KFAY: 95/2006 April 16: KGSO: 88/2002 KRDU: 92/1941 KFAY: 94/2006 April 17: KGSO: 90/1967 KRDU: 93/1896 KFAY: 92/1941 April 18: KGSO: 90/1976 KRDU: 95/1896 KFAY: 93/1941 Record High Minimum Temperatures: April 15: KGSO: 65/2006 KRDU: 64/1993 April 16: KGSO: 66/2006 KRDU: 64/1912 KFAY: 69/1934 April 17: KGSO: 63/2002 KRDU: 67/1896 KFAY: 66/1921 April 18: KGSO: 66/1909 KRDU: 63/1941 KFAY: 67/2002 April 19: KRDU: 67/1896 KFAY: 67/2002 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Badgett/NP AVIATION...Badgett/MWS CLIMATE...RAH  193 FXUS63 KDDC 141009 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 509 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong southwesterly winds today; critical fire weather conditions - Elevated to critical fire conditions Thursday - Varying levels of convective chances this week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 103 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Strong southwesterly winds and a critical fire weather day is expected across the entire forecast area today as strong southwesterly flow will be present with the approach of trough. With efficient mixing, expect area-wide southwesterly winds 25-35 mph with gusts 25-50 mph. The strongest of the winds are expected in southwest zones. This is where travel could become rather difficult for high-profile vehicles and greatest fire spread of any potential fires. See fire weather discussion for details on the fire weather potential today and Thursday. Precipitation chances throughout the forecast period continue to be pretty sparse. However, placement of the dry line will dictate the level of convection that could occur within our eastern forecast area this week. For today, short-range guidance is struggling with the placement of the retreating dry line early this morning, and therefore uncertainty will exist on placement throughout this afternoon. In any case, the greatest chance for any thunderstorms will be in our far east where we currently have 20-30% POPs this afternoon and into tonight. Any severe weather risk will be conditional given the low confidence of storm occurrence. However, if storms are able to develop, the primary risk would be large hail. Another system is expected to eject into the Plains Friday, bringing our next best chance at thunderstorms. Again, dry line placement will be key and POPs are favored in our eastern zones (20-40%). Global ensembles currently have this wave ejecting with a more neutral orientation. This scenario would allow some severe convective potential. Though if this would be able to come out more negative, a higher-end severe risk could be realized. Until then for now, SPC continues to carry a 15% severe probability touching our eastern counties. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 507 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Southwest winds will increase to 25 to 30 knots today between 15Z and 18Z today as a surface low deepens over northeast Colorado/northwest Kansas and stronger winds in the lower levels mix down to the surface. Wind gusts could reach 40 to 45 knots at times this afternoon. These strong southwest winds will decrease this evening and are currently expected to fall to 10 to 15 knots between 03Z and 06Z Wednesday as the wind shifts west. VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 100 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Red Flag Warning is in effect for the entire forecast area Tuesday. Strong southwesterly winds are expected to increase this afternoon area-wide 25-35 mph with gusts 35-50 mph, with the strongest winds in southwest portions of the forecast area. RH values will be 10-20% across the entire area. Our far eastern zones are a bit more marginal regarding how dry it will be as it will be dependent on where the dry line placement is. Some guidance is a tad further west, but given this uncertainty and the strong winds, keeping everyone in the warning. We look to get a bit of a reprieve on Wednesday from fire weather potential with expected weaker winds, but RH values will still be quite low. Thursday will feature the return of fire weather risk with a Fire Weather Watch now in place for areas west of Route 283. This is the zone with the best overlap of breezy conditions with gusts 25 mph and greater and RH values 15% or less. Given the conditions, both Tuesday and Thursday will have the medium to high chance of any potential fires being able to spread quickly. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081- 084>090. Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for KSZ061>063-074>077-084>087. && $$ DISCUSSION...Bennett AVIATION...Burgert FIRE WEATHER...Bennett  908 FXUS61 KILN 141009 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 609 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... - Updated information and timing regarding Tuesday's severe weather threat. - Minor updates to details on episodic storm chances through the remainder of the week and this weekend's strong cold front. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday, primarily across west-central Ohio, with near record high temperatures possible. 2) Well above normal temperatures are expected through the rest of the week. Episodic shower and thunderstorm chances continue. 3) Strong cold front moves through this weekend, bringing cooler temperatures Sunday and Monday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1) A frontal boundary will stall out just to our northwest, providing the focus for multiple disturbances to travel along today through Tuesday. The first disturbance moves through Tuesday morning. Ongoing decaying convection from the overnight is expected to progress east/southeast into the ILN FA after daybreak on Tuesday. There is still high uncertainty on how things will progress as early morning storm maintenance isn't ideal due to lack of SB instability and paltry LL lapse rates. There is a chance that these factors overwhelm the LLJ (mentioned in a moment) and storms dissipate. However, a 40 knot 700mb LLJ stretched from southwest IN through north central OH may do enough for storm maintenance that we could see some convection re-strengthening or even re-developing by the time it reaches the far northwestern portions of ILN by noon-ish (Mercer/Auglaize counties). If storms can survive through noon, by then, SB instability and lapse rates across our CWA should rebound enough (combined with the strong wind profile) to support some stronger, more organized, storms particularly northwest of I-71. Timing would be between noon and 9PM or so. Main hazards on the table would be damaging winds and large hail. Meanwhile, all this uncertainty with storm development (or lack thereof) will have a big impact on temperatures Tuesday. If storms hold together and blow through the region during the afternoon hours, this would inhibit how warm we get and therefore, probably keep us from reaching temperature records. However, if storms struggle to hold together or if timing is pushed later, then we may be able to tickle high temperature records thanks to the strong WAA regime across our area. Tuesday the current records are CVG 84F (1887), CMH 86F (1883), and DAY 82F (1931,1941). Current forecasted highs for Tuesday are CVG 82F, CMH 82F, DAY 83F. As we head into Tuesday evening, a handful of CAMs pull some additional blowoff convection into our northern counties Tuesday overnight into Wednesday. Confidence on this is rather low at the moment, since any afternoon convection would likely turn over the environment and overnight timing would indicate a dissipation of SB instability and LL lapse rates. Though, cannot rule out some blowoff rain showers during the overnight hours along and north of I-70. KEY MESSAGE 2) The broader synoptic setup remains the same going into Wednesday and Thursday. The mid-level ridge will remain in place and will continue to support warm/moist air moving in from the southwest. CAMs once again suggest thunderstorm development along that frontal boundary to our northwest, with decaying storms progressing into our northern counties Wednesday daytime hours. The more robust severe threat looks to remain well to our northwest, though cannot rule out a stronger storm with damaging winds. However, with training storms and showers, cannot rule out an isolated area or two having some runoff or ponding issues with repeated rounds of rainfall, especially in west central Ohio. Wednesday night into Thursday, a cold front finally pulls through our area. This will result in drier conditions Thursday night and Friday. KEY MESSAGE 3) A strong trough digs into the Midwest and Great Lakes region at the end of the work week into the weekend. A strong cold front will pull through the region on Saturday bringing renewed chances for showers and thunderstorms. Strong CAA behind this front will bring much cooler air to the region, with 850mb temps dropping 20 to 25 C in 24 hours. Still a bit early to determine finer details, but early guidance suggests a return to temperatures in the 30s on Sunday night. && .AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... LLWS this morning as surface winds increase. Southwest winds around 15 knots will periodically gust to 30 knots throughout the day on Tuesday. Surface winds decrease again this evening, though will remain out of the southwest as we head into the overnight. With surface winds decreasing, we once again need to introduce LLWS as the LLJ remains cranking aloft. Now the tricky part... a handful of hi-res guidance suggests development of showers/storms Tuesday afternoon (16z through 00Z or so). Confidence on storm development is medium right now. Have hedged bets toward a short period of storms by incorporating PROB30s and TEMPO -TSRAs and MVFR conditions into all sites throughout the afternoon hours. However, be prepared for additional tweaks to timing as we see how things evolve. Storms move out of the region this evening and we should scatter out. As previously mentioned, LLWS is reintroduced during the overnight. OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions and thunderstorms possible at times through Wednesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CA AVIATION...CA  644 FXUS62 KCHS 141012 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 612 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The Aviation Section has been updated for the 14/12z TAF issuance. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Dry weather and above-normal temperatures expected to continue through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry weather and above-normal temperatures expected to continue through the weekend. No significant changes to the forecast with prominent ridging aloft and subtropical high pressure at the surface. This setup will yield a rain-free forecast with well-above average temperatures across the region for the next 7 days. Temperatures will range into the mid 80s to low 90s today through the weekend. These values would be on the order of 10 degrees (or more) above normal. High temperatures could approach the daily records this afternoon, with the best chances of reaching records late this week and into the weekend (see Climate section below). The beaches will feel considerably cooler (possibly 10 to 15 degrees cooler) with onshore flow and water temperatures remaining in the mid-60s. The combination of well above normal temperatures and no rainfall will only serve to further worsen ongoing Extreme (D3) drought conditions highlighted by the U.S. Drought Monitor. && .AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 14/12z TAF Discussion: KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: Shallow ground fog at the terminals will quickly mix out after daybreak. VFR will prevail for much of the 14/12z TAF period. Another round of shallow ground fog could occur at the terminals during the early morning hours Wednesday. Extended Aviation Outlook: There are no concerns. && .MARINE... The forecast philosophy remains the same with no major concerns through Saturday. Bermuda high pressure centered well offshore will maintain its influence through the week with a broad southerly flow regime prevailing. This pattern favors sea breeze surges this afternoon, mainly along the land/sea interface and Charleston Harbor. Rip Currents: Today: A low risk for rip currents was maintained for all beaches for today given slightly lower swell heights are anticipated. With sea breeze enhanced winds likely at the beaches with ongoing 10 second periods, the situation is very close to tipping into the moderate risk range. The situation will be monitored throughout the day and an upgrade to a moderate risk may eventually be needed. Wednesday: Slightly higher swell heights are poised to arrive Wednesday with ongoing periods of around 10 seconds, particularly along the Georgia and far southern South Carolina beaches. A moderate risk for rip currents was highlighted for all beaches even though local rip current scores are running right around the low/moderate risk threshold. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: April 14: KSAV: 90/1922 April 16: KSAV: 92/1967 April 17: KCHS: 91/1967 KCXM: 86/2006 KSAV: 95/1967 April 18: KCHS: 92/1967 KSAV: 93/1967 April 19: KCHS: 91/1995 KCXM: 90/1917 KSAV: 92/1968 Record High Minimum Temperatures: April 19: KCHS: 66/1975 KCXM: 70/2002 KSAV: 69/1880 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Dennis  703 FXUS64 KEWX 141014 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 514 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated strong to severe possible across the southern Edwards Plateau and near the Rio Grande late this afternoon/evening. - Chance for isolated storms Wednesday north of I-10. - Warm and humid conditions to continue throughout the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 1234 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The atmospheric setup for Tuesday over South-Central Texas will be similar to Monday as moist southerly flow to southeasterly flow continues. Most should stay dry for much of the day beneath a steady capping inversion and a mix of partly to mostly cloudy skies. However, the combination of a weak mid-level shortwave ejecting out of Mexico and broader height falls from a slowly approaching upper- trough will provide a more lift, giving some additional support to isolated storms later in the day over western portions of the region and providing a more conducive environment for their longevity. These storms are expected to form mainly along the dry line over West Texas and Mexico in the late afternoon, potentially crossing into the southern Edwards Plateau or Rio Grande Plains near and after sunset. Edwards, Kinney, and Val Verde counties have the best shot at seeing storm activity, most likely between 5-10 PM. A few models show storms developing as far south as US-57, though those chances are more uncertain given stronger capping in that area. Continued synoptic ascent and a modest 30-kt low level jet could help sustain storms a little longer into the Hill Country, though weakening is expected overnight and the severe risk should lessen quickly by 12 AM midnight Wednesday before the remnant showers fade. Up to a Level 2 of 5 (Slight) risk for severe weather is highlighted, with storms presenting the typical risks for springtime West Texas supercells... large hail, strong winds, and perhaps a brief isolated tornado in the evening. The storms may also produce locally heavy rains, with a quick 1 to 3 inches possible. The broader upper-trough nears our area Wednesday. Most of the rising motion accompanying this disturbance will be displaced well to our north, but the overlap of warm/moist air with residual ascent over our area should facilitate another period of isolated thunderstorms. The hi-res models have not been very consistent with the placement of this activity, but the trough placement would tend to favor the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country during the afternoon to evening hours, with activity possibly extending into the Austin area and less of a potential south of the Balcones Escarpment. A marginal severe and excessive rain risk accompanies these storms. Daytime temperatures today and Wednesday remain roughly seasonably warm, with highs generally in the 80s for most. Afternoon clouds and moist air, along with southeasterly flow, are helping to prevent highs from building farther. However, that moist air is also keeping overnight temperatures unseasonably mild in the 60s to near 70. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 1234 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 After Wednesday's trough passes, an upper-level ridge should provide calmer weather Thursday and Friday. We'll likely see our warmest temperatures of the week during that period as the ridge shapes a warmer airmass over the area, bringing into the upper 80s and low 90s. Despite the quieter weather, it'll still be rather humid as dew points stay at or above the 90th percentile for the rest of the week. Southerly winds should be breezy on Friday in response to a developing low-pressure system over the Central Plains, which could see exposed and elevated terrain experiencing a 20-mph sustained wind during the afternoon with gusts to around 30 mph. An amplified trough is forecast to barrel out of the central Rockies into the Central Plains on Saturday. The deep meridional flow behind the trough is well-suited to bring a stout cold front into our area on Saturday. There will likely be storms along the front as it cycles through the warm Gulf air over South-Central Texas. Most of this activity is likely to be along and ahead of the front on Saturday, though the continued southwesterly flow should allow mid- level moisture to spill behind the front and leave behind some continued cloud cover and chances for showers through at least Monday. Substantially cooler air is expected behind the front. Should the front arrive on schedule, Saturday night and Sunday morning would bring crisp and drier conditions. The latest model average has lows in the 50s, but accounting for the blurriness of model blends at this range, lows in the mid to upper 40s would be reasonable to expect especially north of I-10, as reflected in the statistical guidance. Highs Sunday and Monday are forecast to be below average for mid-April, with highs in the 60s and 70s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 510 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 MVFR conditions are forecast for the local area sites to about noon today. MVFR cigs may take a bit longer or through 20Z for KDRT before VFR cigs return. Breezy southeasterly winds of 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 20 to 25 knots are forecast mainly for the afternoon and evening periods. Kept the PROB30 for KDRT for early this evening as storms move from Mexico into the Rio Grande. MVFR cigs come back around 04Z Wednesday for the I-35 Corridor airports. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 84 69 84 69 / 10 10 40 30 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 84 67 85 67 / 10 10 30 30 New Braunfels Muni Airport 85 67 85 67 / 0 10 30 20 Burnet Muni Airport 81 67 79 66 / 10 20 40 40 Del Rio Intl Airport 84 69 85 68 / 30 40 30 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 82 67 82 66 / 0 10 40 40 Hondo Muni Airport 86 67 83 65 / 10 20 30 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 84 68 85 67 / 10 10 30 20 La Grange - Fayette Regional 86 69 85 69 / 0 0 10 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 85 69 85 68 / 0 10 30 20 Stinson Muni Airport 86 70 86 69 / 0 10 30 20 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Tran LONG TERM....Tran AVIATION...17  830 FXUS63 KGID 141021 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 521 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Fire weather today: the overall-highest fire weather concerns will target our NE/KS counties along and south of the state line, where outright-critical conditions are likely due to the combination of stronger southwest winds gusting at least 25-35 MPH, and relative humidity falling to at least 15-20 percent. As a result, a Red Flag Warning has been issued from Noon until 9 PM for most of our counties along and south of the Nebraska-Kansas border. - Spotty thunderstorms this evening-tonight ("sneaky" severe?): Isolated to perhaps scattered thunderstorms will be possible almost anywhere in our forecast area. While the vast majority of this hit-or-miss activity should be fairly weak, a few storms could MAYBE become strong to marginally-severe, capable of producing hail up to around the size of quarters, and/or wind gusts up to around 60 MPH. However, the vast majority of potential severe weather this evening and overnight will surely focus slightly east of our forecast area altogether. - On the very edge of another severe storm risk Friday: Another chance for thunderstorms arrives Friday afternoon and evening for mainly the eastern half of our forecast area. It is still too early to determine whether any threat for severe storms might exist for our area, or instead concentrate slightly off to our south and east. - Strong north-northwest winds Friday into Friday night: Our entire forecast area will have strong north-northwest winds Friday into Friday night, with sustained speeds of at least 30 MPH and gusts of at least 40 MPH likely. - Almost daily fire weather concerns Thurs onward: Each afternoon between Thursday and Monday, at least near-critical fire weather conditions are forecast develop within at least parts of our forecast area. A few days could also see fire weather conditions reach critical levels, including already on Thursday. - Slightly sub-freezing temperatures possible this weekend: For those who already have concerns for freezing temperatures and impacts to gardening or irrigation systems, at least slightly sub-freezing temperatures appear possible Saturday morning, but are probably more likely Sunday morning. && .UPDATE... Issued at 520 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 -- FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE, BIG PICTURE COMMENTS, AND ANY ABBREVIATED LONGER-TERM FORECAST NOTES (for beyond Wednesday): - In the interest of time, really going to keep the focus here on these first 36 hours. For anything beyond that, the highlights are covered in KEY MESSAGES above. - That being said, one thing worth pointing out in the longer term is the CONSIDERABLE uncertainty that still exists for Friday's strong cold frontal passage timing, and the resultant impact on high temperatures, severe thunderstorm potential etc. At this time, the NAM/ECMWF are noticeably faster with this frontal passage than the GFS, which if the faster solution were to verify could render our currently-forecast high temps at least 10+ degrees too warm, and also more solidly shunt any severe storm risk in the afternoon- evening at least slightly south- through east of our CWA (SPC officially barely clips our southeast edges with their latest Day 4 "Slight Risk equivalent/15% area). - For all fire-weather related concerns (including today's Red Flag Warning), see separate Fire Weather section below for more details. -- FOCUS SOLELY ON THE SHORTER-TERM/NEXT 36 HOURS (through late Wed afternoon/early evening): - CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 4 AM/general comments: Although a rogue strong thunderstorm developed late yesterday afternoon/early evening in our far northern CWA (affecting mainly Greeley County), as expected we remained both well- southwest and well-northwest of the main rounds of severe storms in the greater region. We will likely remain very slightly west of the main threat areas over these next 24-36 hours, but close enough to at least modest elevated instability that a few "surprise" strong to even marginally-severe storms cannot be ruled out. Early this morning, all is quiet across the CWA, as we reside under almost entirely clear skies. In the mid-upper levels, water vapor satellite imagery and short term model data confirm continued broad southwesterly flow aloft, with the first of two primary/large-scale upper troughs of the week very slowly approaching from the Intermountain West/Rockies. At the surface, a weak but fairly well defined low pressure center (around 1002 millibars) resides over our KS zones. Due to the position of this low, a west-southwest to east-northeast oriented quasi- stationary front bisects our southern CWA, separating light-but steady northerly breezes to its north, from light and generally southerly breezes to its south. Low temps are on track to bottom out within a few degrees either side of 50 most areas (except closer to 60 far southeast around Mitchell County KS). - TODAY (through around 6-7 PM): Although we bring in some small chances (mainly 20-30%) for spotty showers/thunderstorms late this afternoon, odds strongly favor the vast majority of our CWA staying rain-free through at least 6-7 PM. Aloft, the main upper system will approach from the CO area, causing another surface low pressure center to take shape over mainly northwest KS by late in the day. The trickiest part of today's forecast really boils down to the exact position of the aforementioned quasi-stationary front, which is expected to remain very near the NE/KS border through much of the day, but perhaps TRY lifting north up toward Highway 6. To the north of the front, generally east-northeasterly breezes 10-20 MPH will prevail with high temperatures mainly in the 70s-low 80s, while south of the boundary, gusty southwest winds will develop (gusts easily 25-35 MPH especially in KS), allowing temps to soar into the mid-upper 80s and promoting resultant fire weather concerns. - THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT: As the night wears on, the main upper trough/mid level closed low will track closer, reaching the NE/KS/CO border area by sunrise Wednesday. At the surface, another low pressure center will track eastward through our southern CWA, reaching roughly the Hebron area by sunrise. As this low tracks through, it will keep that same generally west-east frontal boundary in place through much of the night, with northeasterly winds prevailing over most of our CWA to its north, and southerly breezes into at least the first part of the night in our far south, but even there eventually turning more northerly/northwesterly as the surface low tracks east. In terms of convective/rain potential, high-res models such as from HRRR/NAMNest clearly keep the main threat for any severe storms (especially surface-based ones) slightly east-through- southeast of our CWA..more within the main low-level instability axis and low-level jet axis. However, this forecaster is still a little concerned that we get see a rogue strong to marginally- severe storm or two overnight (likely of the elevated variety), as the increased lift from the approaching trough interacts with pockets of at least 500-1000 J/kg elevated CAPE (possibly upward of 1500 J/kg in our far southeast), in the presence of very strong deep-layer shear on the order of 60-70+KT. In theory, any spotty severe in our area would favor our extreme southeast fringes (where SPC did introduce a Marginal Risk/level 1), but feel that almost anywhere (even our west) could see a rogue, marginally-severe hail threat as lift impinges upon the elevated instability. All that being said, the actual COVERAGE of storms in our CWA this evening-overnight will be isolated-to-scattered at best, and thus kept PoPs fairly modest. Low temps tonight are aimed fairly similar to this morning...most places upper 40s-low 50s. - WEDNESDAY DAYTIME: Over the course of the day, the main upper low/trough axis tracks directly through the heart of our CWA/general region from west-to-east, reaching the IA/NE border area by sunset. As the associated surface low tracks east in tandem, our breezes will turn more west-northwesterly at generally 10-15 MPH with some higher gusts. Precip/storm-wise, "in theory" we do not have a severe threat, and the coverage of any showers/storms should again be isolates/scattered at best. HOWEVER, pockets of lingering instability to at least 500 J/kg, aided by cooling aloft from the deep trough passing overhead, have been known to produce "surprise" marginally-severe storms with perhaps a hail threat or even a random funnel cloud (probably not reaching the ground) in these kind of setups around here, so that probably cannot be totally ruled out. Kept modest PoPs going across much of our CWA, but overall-highest chances currently appear to focus/near north of I-80. Any lingering activity should depart our far eastern counties by 5-7 PM. In other departments, high temps were nudged down slightly...most places aimed between 71-75 degrees. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1221 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A discussion on fire-weather-specific information can be found in the Fire section below. Surface low pressure located near Kearney at mid day will gradually develop northeast toward Albion through this afternoon. Warm and dry air will overspread the entire area this afternoon. One thing to watch this afternoon will be a low-end potential for isolated convection to develop in the wraparound moisture on the west side of the surface low. We most likely should stay precipitation free, but there's about a 10% chance for development in far northern counties of the forecast area around 5 PM, and a better chance farther north. As we get into the overnight hours and the low pressure moves off to the northeast, cooler and moisture air will push south into many of our Nebraska counties while new low pressure develops in northwest KS. This front will likely stall in the vicinity of the KS/NE border and hang out in that area on Tuesday. Expect a good pool of low level moisture immediately on the cool side of the front while areas to the south remain warm and in a dry airmass. While a ribbon of instability is likely to develop near/north of the front, there will be a very strong cap in place and surface based storms are not expected. As we get a bit deeper into the evening, there is some potential for increased convergence along and just north of the boundary to provide a semi-favorable environment for breaking the cap, but would require significant moisture transport and pooling through a pretty good depth and into the warm layer aloft. As of now, forecast soundings are not favorable for thunderstorm development, and if it does happen would stand a better chance with eastward extent. Farther north, closer to the core of a short wave trough with weaker cap and stronger forcing, there is a better chance for showers or a few thunderstorms to develop and skirt across our northern counties, but truthfully that precip potential is greater farther to the north. A few wraparound showers could linger into Wednesday, depending on how quickly the system moves off to the east. Overall, this system does not look particularly rainy for south central NE or north central KS. After a period of mid level ridging on Thursday, there is good model agreement with high probability for a strong storm system tracking from Colorado across KS/NE late Friday into Saturday. This has the look (and the temperature profile) of a classic spring system with thunderstorms ahead of the low, snow on the northwest quadrant, and plenty of wind for everyone. Any severe storm potential will be highly dependent upon timing of the storm system, and current indications suggest a higher likelihood of severe storms east of the local forecast area, so we'll be watching potential for the system to slow down and pull better moisture back to the west. The snow potential will also be highly dependent upon the storm track, and right now the greatest potential appears to be north of the local forecast area. Where it does snow, it will be accompanied by strong winds, and so this too is worth very closely monitoring as it could make for hazardous travel conditions Friday night into Saturday morning. After this system, should see a period of slightly cooler conditions with calmer weather overall...at least into the first couple days of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1220 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Have VFR conditions in for this TAF period...though there is some uncertainty with that as we approach sunrise on into at least the first half of the day, as models show the potential for some lower level clouds to spread into the area. Most guidance keeps things VFR, but will have to monitor trends closely. Light/variable winds continue for a few more hours tonight, expected to turn more northeasterly before sunrise. Mid-morning on through mid-afternoon, there will be the potential for gusts around 25 MPH. Mid-late afternoon, there is some uncertainty and lower confidence in the winds for a few hours, as a frontal boundary tries working its way back north. Have a period of light/variable winds...there is some question with just how far north the front gets, and whether it complicates winds briefly before the next cold front pushes south through the area, switching winds back to the northeast. For the final few hours of this period, there will be the potential for isolated to scattered precipitation to develop, so did insert a PROB30 mention. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 520 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING: Unlike yesterday's more widespread critical fire weather conditions that affected most of our CWA, today's main threat area will be more focused near and especially south of the NE/KS border...to the south of a relatively sharp, west- southwest to east- northeast oriented quasi-stationary front. South of this front, a hot/deeply mixed airmass will exist with temps at least mid-upper 80s and southwest winds gusting at least 25-35 MPH (40 MPH probably cannot be ruled out, especially in KS). Given these winds and relative humidity (RH) expected to crash down between 15-20%, critical fire weather conditions are likely to develop. As a result, the previous Fire Weather Watch was "upgraded" to a Red Flag Warning for our 6 KS counties, and we also tacked on most of our adjacent Nebraska counties along the state line. At least near-critical conditions with slightly higher RH/slightly lighter winds will probably extend another 1-2 counties north of the Warning (at least getting into some of our Highway 6 counties in Nebraska). - THURSDAY: Following somewhat of a break in fire weather concerns on Wednesday due to slightly cooler temps/lighter winds, concerns return in earnest already Thursday afternoon-early evening as high temperatures again jump into at least the low-mid 80s in the presence of southerly winds sustained around 20 MPH/gusting at least 25 MPH (probably higher). Relative humidity is currently forecast to fall to as low as 10-20% for most of our CWA, making this a decent candidate for our next Warning day...particularly in the western half of our area. FRIDAY-MONDAY: Despite cooler temperatures than the last few days and those on Thursday, each of these days will likely feature at least limited coverage of near- critical conditions, with pockets of outright- critical possible. More details will be provided as these days get closer in time. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ083>087. KS...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005>007-017>019. && $$ UPDATE...Pfannkuch DISCUSSION... AVIATION...ADP FIRE WEATHER...Pfannkuch  282 FXUS62 KILM 141022 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 622 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Concern for adverse fire weather conditions later this week has increased. Aviation discussion updated for 12z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Persistent dry weather and near-record warm temperatures may create fire weather hazards this week. 2) A cold front expected to arrive next Sunday will bring a low chance of showers and a cooler airmass early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Persistent dry weather and near-record warm temperatures may create fire weather hazards this week. A 500 mb ridge centered across Florida should expand northward over the next couple of days, leading to continued dry weather and above normal temperatures across the Carolinas. Ridging aloft will support Bermuda high pressure off the East Coast through the period. Model trends over the past 24 hours have shown essentially no change with the predicted 500 mb pattern or predicted 850 mb temperatures, leading to a forecast that looks almost identical to what we constructed this time yesterday. A weak upper trough passing by to our north on Friday could lead to a few more clouds, but warm and dry mid levels should keep the weather dry. High temperatures have a reasonably good chance of reaching 90 degrees inland on Wednesday, then exceeding 90 degrees on Friday and Saturday. Along the coast, south to southwest synoptic winds plus the afternoon seabreeze should keep high temperatures ~5 degrees cooler in Wilmington and ~10 degrees cooler at the beaches compared to inland areas. SPC has included a portion of the Carolinas in their Fire Weather Outlook for Wednesday citing low humidity, a moderate southwest wind, and a unusually high Energy Release Component (ERC: an index utilizing fuel moisture to indicate how energetically heat will be released by burning woody fuels.) Our current forecast has relative humidity bottoming out in the 25-30 percent range along the Interstate 95 corridor Wednesday. Similar conditions are expected again Friday and Saturday. Record highs coming up later this week: .............Wed Apr 15...Thu Apr 16...Fri Apr 17...Sat Apr 18 Wilmington......92 in 2006...90 in 2006...89 in 2006...93 in 1976 Lumberton.......92 in 2006...93 in 1941...91 in 2006...91 in 1941 Florence........94 in 2006...90 in 2006...93 in 2006...93 in 1981 N Myrtle Beach..90 in 2006...87 in 2006...87 in 1995...89 in 1976 KEY MESSAGE 2: A cold front expected to arrive next Sunday will bring a low chance of showers and a cooler airmass early next week. An upper trough pushing eastward across the Great Lakes Sunday will push a surface cold front into the Carolinas on Sunday. The latest GFS, Canadian, and ECMWF all show the front moving through during the afternoon hours, but also show only a tenuous and fading connection to any Gulf moisture. Precipitation along the front may be limited to just a smattering of showers or storms with 0-6 km bulk shear possibly too large for the limited moisture and instability present. Among the dozens of model ensemble members within the NBM, about 30 percent of them show at least .01" of rain across the area associated with Sunday's frontal passage. Increasing the PoP threshold to .10" cuts this to around 20 percent. This system appears unlikely to meaningfully alleviate deteriorating drought conditions across the area. The biggest impact from this front should be the arrival of a cooler airmass for Sunday night into Monday. Monday's predicted highs are in the lower to mid 70s, near to slightly below normal for mid April. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR will prevail through 06z TAF period. Have kept any restrictions out of the TAFs. Intermittent high clouds through tomorrow. Winds will remain S-SW. Winds will back slightly and increase with gusts up to 25 kts or so in strong afternoon seabreeze. Increased confidence that brief early morning fog development should not affect the terminals heading into Wed due to slightly lower moisture and a bit stronger winds. Extended Forecast...Predominantly VFR through the week due to high pressure. Only exception could be some MVFR or even IFR fog heading into sunrise each morning. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...Bermuda high pressure will remain in control with predominantly SW winds in place. Winds will back slightly in the afternoon to a more southerly direction and become gustier and increase in afternoon sea breeze. Overnight into early morning the winds will veer to a more SW direction and lighten. Seas will be 2 to 4 ft with an increasing southerly wind wave in the afternoon and a longer period ESE swell mixing in. Wednesday night through Saturday...Bermuda high pressure off the East Coast will maintain a south to southwest wind along the Carolina coast through Saturday. Synoptic winds should average 10 to occasionally 15 knots with afternoon seabreezes expected to create localized increases to almost 20 knots during the afternoons and evenings. It's a very summerlike pattern. An east-southeasterly Bermuda swell at a 9 to 10 second period will continue through Saturday, topped off by short period wind chop that could become rough for kayakers and small boats during the afternoons and evenings. Within 20 miles of shore combined seas should average 2-3 feet. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...TRA/RGZ KEY MESSAGES...TRA DISCUSSION...TRA AVIATION...RGZ MARINE...TRA/RGZ  649 FXUS61 KPHI 141024 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 624 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Damaging winds possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms through this afternoon and evening north and west of the I-95 corridor, with an even higher risk from I-80 on north. 2. Potentially record breaking warmth is possible this week with very warm and above normal temperatures continuing through the upcoming weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1....Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly north and west of the I-95 corridor, are anticipated to move in this afternoon and evening. While the severe threat is zero for most of the area, a few strong to severe storms over the northern Lehigh Valley, Poconos, and far northern NJ are possible and could produce damaging wind gusts. A fairly significant change to the forecast this morning for later today and this evening. An MCS over the Great Lakes will continue to push eastward through today and potentially graze our area this afternoon and evening. Convection associated with the MCS will likely re-develop later this afternoon over southern NY and north- central PA. The question remains how much instability builds with daytime heating as the day goes on. Shear, while present, is not overwhelming either. However, still expecting some thunderstorms developing and potentially clustering as they move into the northern half of our region. Main concern is damaging wind gusts as the line or small clusters of storms move through. The best chance for strong to severe thunderstorms will be from the I-95 and I-195 corridor on north and west. SPC has expanded the Marginal Risk (1/5) to include these areas. A Slight Risk was even added north of I-80. Showers and thunderstorms begin to move in by the mid afternoon in the Poconos, moving toward I-95 for the late afternoon/early evening. Convection should weaken as it crosses the Delaware River, with a more stable airmass present over New Jersey. Areas south and east of I-95 could still see some showers, but not expecting much in terms of severe weather. KEY MESSAGE 2...Potentially record breaking warmth is possible this week with very warm and above normal temperatures continuing through the upcoming weekend. We continue on track with increasing confidence in early season heat with a significant warm up expected through the middle of the week and into the upcoming weekend with the potential for record breaking temperatures. With high pressure situated over the Atlantic Ocean and the warm front well north of the Mid-Atlantic region, continued warmth is expected. Very warm air aloft coupled with warm air at surface levels will allow temperatures to be as much as 15 to 30 degrees above average this week. As of now, forecast highs are in the low to mid 80s on Tuesday with mid/upper 80s to low 90s on both Wednesday and Thursday, though Thursday may be a touch cooler due to more cloud cover. See Climate Section below regarding potential record breaking temperatures. At this point, temperatures are expected to reach at least 90 for much urban corridor on Wednesday and a degree or two warmer on Thursday. This would be first 90 degree day of the year and first since early September. As is typical in spring though, temperatures along and near the coast will be significantly cooler due to the colder sea surface temperatures and diurnal sea breeze. While a weak surface front passes through late Thursday night into Friday morning, temperatures will stay well above normal through the weekend with temps mainly in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Not only will it be very warm over the course of the week, but it will also remain mainly dry. This is of elevated concern for ongoing drought/abnormally dry conditions over much of the area, which will likely only get worse after this week. A few weak disturbances will pass by to the north through Thursday, but other than a stray shower or thunderstorm each afternoon north of the I-78 corridor, no significant rainfall is expected. Flow will generally be out of the southwest, which is more favorable in terms of moisture, which likely will hinder the fire weather concerns this week. Winds will generally be light as well, as another limiting factor. So, even though it will be warm and dry, fire weather concerns are minimal. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Today...Primarily VFR. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms potentially develop in the afternoon. Added VCTS to the TAFs between 20-21z to 23-00z for KRDG/KABE and kept the VCSH at all other sites as showers and thunderstorms should be more concentrated over the northern Lehigh Valley and northern NJ. Cannot rule out some storms making it to the I-95 corridor though between 22z-01z. Winds out of the southwest this morning around 5-10 kt, increasing to around 10-15 kt in the afternoon with gusts 20-25 kt. Moderate confidence. Tonight...Primarily VFR. Slight chance (15-20%) of a shower through 03z at KACY/KMIV. Added some patchy fog to the KABE/KRDG TAF which could reduce visibilities down to IFR/MVFR. Higher chance for fog depending on if rain impacts any terminals this afternoon and evening. Light southwest winds 5 kt or less. Low confidence. Outlook... Wednesday through Thursday night...Prevailing VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms (~20-40%) in the afternoon and evening hours each day for the Lehigh Valley and I-95 terminals. Friday through Saturday...VFR. A few showers possible, otherwise no significant weather. && .MARINE... Tranquil conditions expected on the waters today and tonight with no headlines in place. Southwest winds around 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt and seas 2 to 4 feet. Outlook... Wednesday through Saturday...No marine headlines expected. Winds will generally remain below 20 kt with seas around 2-4 feet. A few showers possible, otherwise fair weather. && .CLIMATE... Warm temperatures well above normal are expected for the upcoming week. Wednesday is currently projected to be the warmest day, though Tuesday through Thursday could see some records broken depending on the site. Below are record highs and record high minimum temperatures for April 14th through April 16th. Record High Temperatures April 14 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 88/2023 AC Airport (ACY) 86/1945 AC Marina (55N) 90/1941 Georgetown (GED) 87/1977 Mount Pocono (MPO) 84/2023 Philadelphia (PHL) 91/1941 Reading (RDG) 90/1941 Trenton (TTN) 89/1941 Wilmington (ILG) 87/1941 Record Warmest Low Temperatures April 14 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 61/2014 AC Airport (ACY) 63/2023 AC Marina (55N) 60/2023 Georgetown (GED) 65/2019 Mount Pocono (MPO) 56/2014 Philadelphia (PHL) 62/2014 Reading (RDG) 64/2014 Trenton (TTN) 62/2014 Wilmington (ILG) 60/2014 Record High Temperatures April 15 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 86/1941 & 1994 AC Airport (ACY) 90/1967 AC Marina (55N) 86/1941 Georgetown (GED) 86/1960 & 2024 Mount Pocono (MPO) 82/1941 Philadelphia (PHL) 88/1941 Reading (RDG) 86/1941 & 1994 Trenton (TTN) 87/1994 Wilmington (ILG) 86/1896 Record Warmest Low Temperatures April 15 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 59/2002 AC Airport (ACY) 61/2002 AC Marina (55N) 59/2006 Georgetown (GED) 65/2002 Mount Pocono (MPO) 58/2002 Philadelphia (PHL) 64/2002 Reading (RDG) 64/1938 Trenton (TTN) 63/2002 Wilmington (ILG) 62/2002 Record High Temperatures April 16 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 90/2012 AC Airport (ACY) 89/2002 AC Marina (55N) 88/2002 Georgetown (GED) 89/2002 Mount Pocono (MPO) 85/2002 Philadelphia (PHL) 90/2002 Reading (RDG) 90/2012 Trenton (TTN) 91/2012 Wilmington (ILG) 92/1896 Record Warmest Low Temperatures April 16 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 60/1941 AC Airport (ACY) 62/2002 AC Marina (55N) 64/2002 Georgetown (GED) 65/2012 Mount Pocono (MPO) 56/2002 Philadelphia (PHL) 62/2002 Reading (RDG) 65/1941 Trenton (TTN) 62/2002 Wilmington (ILG) 63/2002 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Deal/DeSilva/Hoeflich/MJL AVIATION...Deal/DeSilva/Hoeflich MARINE...Deal/DeSilva/Hoeflich  966 FXUS64 KFWD 141025 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 525 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered storms may impact our far western counties late this afternoon and evening with a threat for severe hail and wind. - An active pattern with chances for showers and storms will persist this week. There is potential for strong to severe storms again on Wednesday. - A strong cold front on Saturday is expected to bring much cooler temperatures and drier weather to end the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Wednesday) Issued at 208 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The rest of this morning will be cloudy and breezy as winds remain elevated and a slug of low-level stratus blankets much of North and Central Texas by daybreak. We'll remain dry going into the early afternoon as lift from our incoming shortwave remains a bit further west. Like yesterday, scattered showers and storms are expected to develop along a dryline draped from the Panhandles down into the Permian Basin in the afternoon in response to upper- level lift spreading into the region, and will spread east through the evening. Latest thinking is that this activity will not reach our northwest and Big Country counties really until the early evening, with scattered storms impacting areas mainly west of the I-35 corridor this evening. With lapse rates near 7.5-8 degC/km, deep layer shear > 40 KT, and plenty of instability, any storm that moves into our area will have a primary threat of large hail and damaging winds. The tornado threat will be non-zero, and may become slightly increased later in the evening as the low-level jet picks up and increases the 0-1 km wind shear and SRH. Additional dryline-induced showers and storms may move in from the southwest overnight into Wednesday morning, but the severe risk with these would decrease the further they get into Central and North Texas due to increasing inhibition. Wednesday afternoon's storm chances remain conditional on just how much activity we observe during the morning. If we see enough in the morning, the atmosphere may be worked over enough to prohibit much additional development in the afternoon, which is what the majority of CAMs are currently outputting. However if there is not much morning convection, then the afternoon environment would be primed for the development of scattered storms as the upper-level shortwave moves across the Plains. Lapse rates ~ 7 degC/km and efficient instability and deep layer shear would promote the potential for some severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds. With uncertainty on the coverage of storms in both the afternoon and evening hours on Wednesday, have lowered forecast PoPs from the NBM. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 208 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 An overall lull in precipitation is expected most of the day Thursday as upper-level ridging moves into the region in between shortwave troughs. With the dryline remaining to our west, afternoon high temperatures will still peak mainly in the 80s across the region. However, isolated showers and storms may occur in North Texas near the Red River on Friday as the ridge gets shoved to the east ahead of our next shortwave. Lee-side troughing out ahead of the incoming shortwave will tighten the pressure gradient, resulting in wind gusts to around 25-30 mph on Friday. The deepening shortwave is expected to cross the Continental Divide Friday into Saturday, shunting the attendant cold front south through the Plains. This front will quickly overtake our resident dryline, moving through North and Central Texas early in the day Saturday. Showers and storms are expected to develop near and along the front as it advances through the region, though severe weather is not anticipated with this activity at this time. Behind the front, expect cooler conditions going into next week with highs in the 60s and 70s both Sunday and Monday. Another chance for precipitation may be possible next Monday as quick moisture return over the cooler post-frontal airmass promotes overrunning precipitation. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 523 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 MVFR cigs continue to blanket the TAF sites, and will persist before gradually lifting back to VFR over early-mid afternoon. There continues to be low potential for warm sector showers and storms this afternoon ahead of the dryline, but coverage and location remains uncertain enough to forego inclusion in the 12Z TAFs. We will continue to keep an eye on this potential for future amendments. Overnight, expect another round of MVFR stratus to impact the airports. Additional showers and storms may move SW to NE overnight into Wednesday morning, but there continues to be discord among guidance and enough uncertainty on the coverage of morning development to not add in VCTS/VCSH with this issuance. Otherwise, breezy southerly winds with occasional higher gusts are expected to continue through the TAF period. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1232 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 83 67 79 66 / 20 50 40 40 Waco 82 67 80 66 / 10 20 40 40 Paris 82 65 79 65 / 10 20 40 40 Denton 82 65 78 64 / 20 50 40 40 McKinney 82 67 78 66 / 10 40 40 40 Dallas 84 67 80 66 / 10 40 40 40 Terrell 82 67 81 66 / 10 20 40 40 Corsicana 84 68 84 69 / 10 10 40 40 Temple 83 67 82 66 / 10 10 40 40 Mineral Wells 83 65 79 63 / 40 50 50 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Prater LONG TERM....Prater AVIATION...Prater  830 FXUS62 KFFC 141025 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 625 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New 12Z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 624 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - A Fire Danger Statement is in effect for portions of north and central Georgia this afternoon and evening. Fire weather concerns will persist this week given the ongoing very dry and warm conditions. - Temperatures will remain well above normal through the weekend. Some could approach daily record highs by mid-week. - Appreciable rainfall is very unlikely through this coming weekend, so worsening drought conditions are expected. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 245 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The overall pattern will remain largely unchanged today and Wednesday, with the high pressure regime maintaining its hold over the region. 500 mb level ridging over the northern Gulf extending into the western Atlantic and associated surface high pressure underneath will gradually retrograde through the short term period. The ridge becoming more centered over the Southeast will keep any frontal boundaries and precipitation displaced well to the north of Georgia. The ridge aloft and southwesterly flow from the Gulf on the back side of the high will also promote continued warming. Low temperatures this morning will be in the mid 50s to near 60s. Under mostly clear skies, high temperatures this afternoon will be 9-12 degrees above normal in central Georgia and 12-16 degrees above normal in north Georgia, rising into the mid to upper 80s. With very dry fuels and RH values dropping to between 25-30% this afternoon, a Fire Danger Statement is in effect once again across the forecast area this afternoon. By late Tuesday, the upper level synoptic pattern will reflect a classic omega-block pattern centered over the eastern CONUS, with deep troughing setting up on both sides of the aforementioned ridge. Low temperatures will begin Wednesday morning in the upper 50s and low 60s. Highs will be a few degrees warmer than today, climbing into the upper 80s and even low 90s in portions of east- central Georgia. Many locations across the forecast area could see new daily records be set on Wednesday and into the extended period. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 245 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Staying Warm and Dry for Most through Saturday: The long term period brings the potential for the persistent ridging pattern to finally weaken and thus the potential for rainfall across parts of the County Warning Area (CWA). Unfortunately, this pattern shift will very likely not support the coverage and amount of rainfall necessary to put a dent in the Severe Drought (D2) to Extreme Drought (D3) that covers much of the CWA. Ensemble guidance depicts a shortwave trough pushing across the Ohio River Valley and Mid-Atlantic over the course of Thursday and Friday. How much rain occurs here in north and central Georgia associated with this feature will depend on just how much the shortwave dampens when it interacts with the ridge and to what degree moisture associated with the shortwave is scoured out. Ensemble guidance suggests that Gulf moisture advection will be lacking, and when coupled with some semblance of ridging likely holding on across the Southeast, it seems likely that rain chances will remain low overall. Rain Chances and a Drop in Temperatures on Sunday? Ensemble guidance depicts the passage of a fairly stout longwave trough across the eastern CONUS late Saturday through late Sunday, although the individual ensembles (i.e. GEFS vs. EPS) vary regarding how far south the base of the trough swings. Such differences could impact how much moisture return occurs across the CWA, as well as the placement of favorable dynamics for storm organization/strength. At this time, rain chances are greatest (25% to 30%) north of the Atlanta metro area, with 15% to 20% rain chances across the Atlanta metro area and parts of central Georgia. Appreciable rainfall is highly unlikely, so worsening drought conditions are expected through the weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 624 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Patchy fog will be possible in portions of central GA in the early morning, with vsby restrictions of 2-3 SM occasionally developing to the south of MCN/CSG before 13Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions will persist through the period, with SKC or a few passing upper clouds between 20-25 kft. Winds will be primarily SW, at 4 kts or less in the early morning, increasing to 5-10 kts after 14Z, and diminishing once again after 00Z. //ATL Confidence...12Z Update... High confidence on all elements. King && .CLIMATE... Issued at 245 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Records for 04-14 Max Temperature Min Temperature Station High Low High Low ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 88 1922 44 1907 66 2015 27 1950 1919 KATL 88 1945 49 1913 66 2015 30 1950 1922 1920 1907 KCSG 92 1922 53 2000 67 2015 35 1950 1935 1947 1940 1907 KMCN 90 1922 52 1913 69 2015 34 1950 Records for 04-15 Max Temperature Min Temperature Station High Low High Low ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 89 1936 50 1952 68 1922 28 1943 KATL 87 1972 45 1903 66 1991 31 1950 1936 KCSG 91 1972 53 1952 69 1972 35 1943 1945 1922 KMCN 91 1972 53 1952 69 1922 31 1907 1936 Records for 04-16 Max Temperature Min Temperature Station High Low High Low ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 88 1930 50 1903 62 1982 30 1943 1925 1945 KATL 86 1896 49 1905 64 1945 32 1962 KCSG 92 1925 61 1961 69 1945 32 1950 1928 KMCN 91 1967 56 1905 67 1972 33 2014 2008 Records for 04-17 Max Temperature Min Temperature Station High Low High Low ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 90 1955 55 1949 63 2006 30 1949 1905 1982 1939 KATL 89 1896 44 1904 66 2024 31 1905 1896 KCSG 91 1955 58 1923 69 2006 32 1949 1925 1922 KMCN 92 1955 52 1904 69 2006 34 1949 Records for 04-18 Max Temperature Min Temperature Station High Low High Low ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 90 1942 54 1902 64 1969 32 1936 1927 KATL 87 2002 50 1983 69 1927 33 1997 1937 1896 KCSG 91 2002 60 2014 69 2006 37 1962 1930 1956 1927 KMCN 90 1967 55 1921 66 1922 33 2001 1955 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 86 58 88 60 / 0 0 0 0 Atlanta 85 61 88 62 / 0 0 0 0 Blairsville 82 55 84 57 / 0 0 0 0 Cartersville 87 58 88 59 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 87 59 88 59 / 0 0 0 0 Gainesville 85 60 87 62 / 0 0 0 0 Macon 87 57 89 60 / 0 0 0 0 Rome 87 57 88 59 / 0 0 0 0 Peachtree City 86 57 88 59 / 0 0 0 0 Vidalia 89 60 91 61 / 0 0 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...King LONG TERM....Martin AVIATION...King  640 FXUS63 KPAH 141026 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 526 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures will approach or exceed records today and Wednesday and again on Friday. Both record high temperatures and record warm minimum temperatures are expected. - Widespread showers and thunderstorms are likely (70-100%) Thursday morning and afternoon. Beneficial rainfall amounts of 0.50 to 1.0 inches are forecast. - A cold front will bring another good chance (50-70%) of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday. Rainfall amounts will be around 0.10 to 0.25 of an inch, with locally higher amounts possible. - Temperatures will cool back to typical mid-April values Sunday and Monday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 525 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Updated Aviation discussion for the 12z TAF issuance. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1257 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Stout H5 ridging over the southeast CONUS will keep the region very warm and mainly dry today into most of Wednesday. Cannot rule out a stray shower the far west and northwest parts of the forecast area. As temperatures at 850mb rise to 17-19C (around the 99th percentile), high temperatures today and Wednesday will climb into the middle to upper 80s, with overnight low temperatures only in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Both record high temperatures and record warm minimum temperatures are probable. Wednesday night into Thursday, numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop to our north and west ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. While the cold front will not quite make it into the area, the latest model guidance is indicating that an inverted trough will pass over the region Thursday, which will act to sustain the precipitation. As a result, rainfall totals have increased a bit from yesterday, now roughly 0.5-1.0" by Thursday evening. The timing and messy storm modes do not appear to be favorable for severe thunderstorms at this time. Friday will be see another day of near record warmth as the ridging briefly expands over the region. High temperatures will again reach the middle to upper 80s, and a few locations may reach 90 degrees. The ridge will begin to break down more significantly Saturday into next week, as troughing over the Upper Midwest dips southward into the area. A surface cold front will pass through the area Saturday afternoon and evening, bringing another good chance of showers and thunderstorms (too early to tell if this would pose a severe risk) and more beneficial light to moderate rain. Drier and seasonably mild conditions are forecast Sunday into early next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 525 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Breezy S to SW winds will continue through the forecast period. The strongest winds will be between roughly 14-01z, when they will be sustained at 12-16 kts with gusts of 20-25 kts before relaxing tonight. Sky cover will be a mix of mid-level bases between 2500 and 5000ft (with cigs remaining VFR)this morning and afternoon and high cirrus tonight. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1257 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Record high temperatures for today and Wednesday: PAH: 87 (2006) | 88 (1977) EVV: 86 (2010) | 86 (2024) CGI: 86 (1992) | 87 (1992) POF: 89 (1929) | 88 (1936) MDH: 85 (2010) | 87 (2024) && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ UPDATE...DWS DISCUSSION...DWS AVIATION...DWS CLIMATE...DWS  955 FXUS64 KHUN 141028 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 528 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 323 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Low relative humidity values, dry fuels, and gusty winds will result in elevated fire weather conditions today through Wednesday. - There are medium chances (30-50%) of showers and storms on Thursday. - Medium chances (30-60%) of showers and storms return on Saturday. && .NEAR TERM... (Today) Issued at 323 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Mostly clear conditions early this morning, save for a few bands of cirrus passing overhead. With high pressure to the southeast of the region, a broad area of southwesterly flow will redevelop today, reinforcing this very warm air mass. The combination of ample sunshine and these southwesterly winds will push high temperatures into the mid to upper 80s, just a couple degrees below record highs at HSV and MSL (89 degrees in 2017 and 1936 respectively). These very warm temperatures and dewpoints in the upper 40s to mid 50s will knock Min RH values into the 25-35 percent range in most locations by this afternoon. Thankfully, winds will generally be lighter and in the 5-10 MPH range, but a few localized gusts to 15 MPH may occur in the afternoon. Given the very dry fuels, this may result in localized elevated fire weather conditions and caution continues to be urged. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday Night through Thursday Night) Issued at 1052 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Upper level ridging over the region and surface high pressure over the Deep South will maintain their hold through Wednesday. By Thursday morning, both of these features will be shunted to the east as an upper shortwave digs over the Mississippi Valley towards the Ohio Valley and a surface low pressure system from the central Plains slides into the Midwest. A cold front associated with this system may approach the Tennessee Valley during the day and bring medium chances (30-50%) of showers and storms to the local area, mainly for northwest Alabama and up into southern middle Tennessee. There is still a bit of uncertainty with how far south the front will travel and where the best upper dynamics will be for any strong to severe storm potential. At this point, confidence is low in any strong to severe storms for north Alabama and southern middle Tennessee but this will be monitored. As for the much needed rainfall, looking probabilistically, there is a very low chance (10-20%) for areas over southern middle Tennessee and west of I-65 in Alabama to receive greater than a quarter of an inch of rain Thursday evening. Locations farther east have an even lesser chance. Therefore, confidence is low that we receive much rainfall at all on Thursday. However, this won't be our only chance at rain this week. Better chances look to be over this next weekend, so stay tuned and read more below in the Long Term section! As for temperatures through Thursday night, it will continue to be warm with highs generally in the mid 80s and lows in the 60s. Taking a look at record temperatures for April 15th to provide some context, the record highs are 88 degrees for Huntsville and 89 degrees at Muscle Shoals (both set in 2006). Keep that in mind if you have outdoor activities on Wednesday and remember heat safety! Drink plenty of water and take frequent breaks in the shade! Before moisture increases on Thursday ahead of the aforementioned surface front, the dry conditions mentioned in the short term will persist into Wednesday. Relative humidity values are forecast to drop into the upper 20 to lower 30 percent range during the day. In addition, it will also be breezy with another day of southwesterly winds around 10-15 mph and gusts to 15-20 mph. Therefore, elevated fire weather concerns will persist. Please be cautious as any fires that develop will likely spread more rapidly than expected! && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 1052 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 The extended forecast period will begin with a continuation of warm/dry conditions, as a 500-mb ridge builds northeastward in the wake of a low amplitude shortwave trough and weak surface low tracking eastward across the northern Mid-Atlantic states. With only a few high-based cumulus anticipated beneath a strengthening mid- level inversion and light SSW flow in the low-levels, most valley locations will experience highs in the u80s-l90s. Low-level flow will begin to increase on Friday evening as a deepening vort max (embedded within the base of a broader trough extending from southern Canada into the northern Plains) begins to eject northeastward into the MO Valley, resulting in development of a frontal wave that will lift northeastward from KS into WI by 12Z Saturday. Latest model guidance suggests that both the mid-level wave and surface low will undergo substantial intensification as they progress further northeastward into eastern OT/western QC by 12Z Sunday, with showers and thunderstorms expected to develop along the length of the trailing cold front and perhaps a prefrontal surface trough (from IL/IN into the northwestern Gulf Coast) Saturday afternoon. As the cold front begins to overtake the surface trough across the TN Valley Saturday evening, chances for much needed rainfall will increase across our forecast area, but there remains a large amount of uncertainty regarding rainfall amounts (ranging from around 0.05-0.10" as a worst case scenario to 0.5-0.75" as a best case scenario). This is likely due to the combination of substantial amount of lingering CINH noted in forecast soundings and a narrow plume of modified Gulf moisture which will only overspread the entire region immediately in advance of the front. Should the low/mid-level thermodynamic profile improve, rainfall amounts would likely be closer to the best case scenario, and a few strong storms capable of producing gusty winds would also be probable given sufficiently strong WSW flow aloft (45-55 knots) for updraft organization. Regardless, the front appears as if it will be exiting our region early Sunday morning, with any lingering precipitation ending in our southeastern zones around 12Z Sunday. A cooler/drier continental airmass will overspread the region for the remainder of the period, featuring highs in the u60s-l70s Sunday and overnight lows in the l-m 40s Monday morning. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 528 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the period with a mostly clear sky. Winds may become gusty out of the SSW/SW this afternoon between 10-15 kts, before weakening after sunset. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...AMP SHORT TERM....26 LONG TERM....70 AVIATION...AMP.24  501 FXUS61 KBGM 141030 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 630 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Added more chances of precipitation for this morning into late morning just in case the line of showers and thunderstorms move through earlier in the day. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Threat for strong to severe thunderstorms today and tomorrow, with isolated hail and strong wind gusts possible along with heavy rain. 2) The warm pattern through the week will break down this weekend and be replaced by much colder air late in the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... The next couple of days will be warm and humid for this time of the year with 30+ knots of shear so there will be chances for some stronger thunderstorms today and tomorrow. The synoptic forcing today is very week with just a subtle 500 mb shortwave passing through so that likely will not be the main driver of the convection but will help supply the shear (35-45 knots) and steeper mid level lapse rates of around 7 C/km. Looking at what happened today in the plains, there was a cluster of supercells that developed in NW Kansas that has developed into an MCS early this morning. This was something that no models had today and even the 0Z models have struggled to handle its evolution. Given that these storms are associated with the mid level wave passing through today, it leads to less confidence in how the evolution of the storms will be today. The HRRR has trended towards an earlier line as the subsequent runs after the 0Z run have slowly started to resolve the MCS a bit better. If this does end up being the case, we may have a line of thunderstorms move through in the morning which would occur before the best CAPE development and would help stabilize the atmosphere leading to a lower end potential. Given the shear in place, a few isolated strong gusts to 50 or 60 mph would be possible with the late morning line of storms. It is possible that the rain moves through early enough for some destabilization in the mid to late afternoon though by then, the steeper mid level lapse rates are moving east. Tomorrow is unfortunately a similar story as today in regards to how the storms may evolve. The synoptic forcing is once again weak with the primary driver of the mid level shortwave is going to be the development of MCS's in the plains this afternoon and overnight. Still, models are in better agreement that there will be more CAPE tomorrow (>1000J/kg of surface cape) and better shear (>40 knots of 0-6 km shear) so if the timing of the mid level wave that triggers the storms is early to mid afternoon, strong thunderstorms are likely and isolated supercells are possible. We will still be in this warm SW flow pattern with frequent shortwaves on Thursday. Models do have more showers and better forcing so that looks to limit CAPE but still will need to be watched with 40+ knots of shear still present. KEY MESSAGE 2... While this warm, early summer like pattern persist through the first half of the weekend, Sunday into early next week has continued to trend cooler. High latitude blocking in Greenland will help a deep late season trough to dig into the Northeast US. The GFS and AIGFS both are bringing 516 to 520 dm 500 mb heights which is well below climatology for mid to late April. 850 mb temperatures also have a high probability of <-5C temperatures for Monday into Tuesday next week, with probabilities >80% for the region and >95% for CNY and north. With the Great Lakes likely warming up some over the rest of this week, it is possible they would be warm enough to generate lake effect snow with this pattern. -10C 850 mb temperature probabilities are even getting to near 50% for the Southern Tier and north and if that occurs, our day time highs may stay in the 30s to low 40s early next week. As of now, the pattern with the cold is looking dry (outside of lake effect) so despite the cold, a widespread snow event is unlikely at this time. There is still time for the pattern to change as the evolution of the Greenland blocking pattern is all over the place but a cooler stretch of weather is likely, just how cold will it get is uncertain. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Conditions have improved back to VFR at all terminals with fog clearing out. Scattered showers across north-central NY will be possible this morning, mainly impacting SYR and RME though no restrictions are expected. There is potential for two rounds of showers and thunderstorms: one around midday and another later in the afternoon. While there continues to be uncertainty with how showers and storms will develop, the potential first line is looking less potent for most terminals and should be just showers. With any thunderstorms, there may be brief restrictions. As with the previous update, AVP looks to be too far south for thunderstorms today but could still have a shower or two pass over late today. The rain and storms will wrap up this evening. Shower chances increase early Wednesday morning but confidence was too low to include at this time. Overnight, guidance is favoring low ceilings and some fog at the Central NY terminals. A lot of this will be based on rainfall as the added moisture would certainly lead to fog as observed early this morning. Similarly to how conditions developed this morning, fog was added to SYR and RME starting around 06z Wednesday. MVFR ceilings were added to ITH, ELM, and BGM for around that same time. Winds will be light and variable this morning but will pick up throughout the day. Winds will be southerly to start the day but then become more westerly later this evening. Peak gusts of 20 to 25 kts are expected though higher gusts will be possible in any thunderstorms. Winds will then become light and variable once again tonight. Outlook: Wednesday through Friday...Restrictions possible from showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Saturday...Additional restrictions look to arrive along with showers and storms late in the day Saturday. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AJG AVIATION...BTL  006 FXUS62 KGSP 141031 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 631 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The aviation discussion was updated for the 12Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Fire weather concerns continue amid a dry and stagnant weather pattern. A Fire Danger Statement is in effect for this afternoon and evening between Noon to 8 PM for the North Carolina Piedmont and northeast Georgia. Temperatures will be very warm with values 10-15 degrees above normal. 2. Hot and dry through Saturday with high temperatures approaching daily records. A cold front may bring some rainfall to our area on Sunday, but any amounts will likely be minimal. Near-normal temperatures expected early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Key message 1: Fire weather concerns continue amid a dry and stagnant weather pattern. A Fire Danger Statement is in effect for this afternoon and evening between Noon to 8 PM for the North Carolina Piedmont and northeast Georgia. Temperatures will be very warm with values 10-15 degrees above normal. Mostly clear and dry tonight will lead to partly to mostly sunny skies during the daytime as a Bermuda surface ridge continues to filter in southwesterly winds across the CWFA. The Southeast upper ridge will hold steady over the next 24-36 hours as anomalously high thicknesses remain in place. In this case, expect afternoon highs to top out in the mid to upper 80s east of the mountains, mid 80s in the major mountain valleys, and 70s in the higher elevations. Vertical profiles show a deep mixing layer during peak heating this afternoon as the boundary layer taps into stronger winds at the top (~825-800mb). Expect some low-end gusts during the afternoon as a result. With some drier air aloft remaining in place, dewpoint mixing combined with temperatures rising a category or so higher compared to Monday will lead to RH values dropping to 25-35% for most locations outside of the mountains despite slightly higher dewpoints as little moisture return accompanies the low-level southwesterly flow. This will continue to elevate fire weather concerns, especially with ongoing drought concerns and higher heat stress with warmer temperatures. The Fire Danger Statement for the North Carolina Piedmont was in coordination with the North Carolina Forest Service and is in effect from Noon to 8 PM today. The Fire Danger Statement for northeast Georgia is for ongoing dry fuels and RH values getting close to the critical threshold of 30%. The Fire Danger Statement for northeast Georgia is also in effect from Noon to 8 PM today. On-and-off fire weather concerns will persist through the week as near-critical RHs and high heat stress are expected each afternoon. This combined with very dry vegetation and low RHs will provide enough of a concern for potential wildfire development, so daily Fire Danger Products throughout the rest of this week remain possible. Key message 2: Hot and dry through Saturday with high temperatures approaching daily records. A cold front may bring some rainfall to our area on Sunday, but any amounts will likely be minimal. Near-normal temperatures expected early next week. Upper ridging will build over the Southeast into Thursday while the Bermuda surface high keeps warm, SLY flow over our area. An embedded upper shortwave trof will move over the Carolinas on Friday, with heights rebounding quickly in its wake. A much more substantial upper trof will pass just to our north late Sunday into Monday and push a robust cold front thru our area on Sunday. A weaker cold front does approach the western Carolinas late Thurs, however it gets pushed northward by the Bermuda high. I can't rule out a few showers over the NC mtns late Thursday into early Friday, but any precipitation amounts would be minimal. The stronger front on Sunday has the potential to bring more widespread showers to our area, but unfortunately the fropa still appears pretty fast and the latest model guidance continues to trend drier overall. It's looking like any precipitation that we get from this system probably won't have much impact on the current drought. While temperatures will be summer-like and approach daily records, the humidity will remain lower. Relative humidity values in the 25 to 35% range are expected each afternoon through the weekend, with values below 20% possible early next week. In addition, gusty winds are expected across our area on Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday which will likely increase fire danger. Temperatures cool to near-normal behind the front on Monday and Tuesday but the airmass remains very dry. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. South to southwesterly winds will persist through the day at 5-10 kts with some low-end gusts possible during peak heating. A deck of high clouds are moving across the terminals. Can't rule out some spurts of fair weather cu during the afternoon. Winds will gradually subside after sunset this evening. Outlook: Dry and VFR conditions persist through at least Thursday. && .CLIMATE... RECORDS FOR 04-14 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 86 2006 36 1907 62 1922 24 1950 KCLT 89 1941 46 1907 69 1922 27 1950 KGSP 92 1916 48 1901 67 1922 22 1907 RECORDS FOR 04-15 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 89 1972 42 1943 64 1887 23 1907 KCLT 89 1936 46 1889 66 2006 28 1907 KGSP 91 2006 45 1913 69 1922 22 1907 RECORDS FOR 04-16 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 87 2006 42 1905 62 1945 26 1943 KCLT 89 2006 49 1890 64 1998 29 2008 1896 1991 1962 1945 KGSP 88 1888 54 1903 64 1945 24 1907 RECORDS FOR 04-17 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 89 1896 45 1890 63 1927 26 1904 KCLT 94 1896 47 1890 66 1896 30 2018 1949 KGSP 92 2006 51 1904 63 1927 25 1905 RECORDS FOR 04-18 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 90 1896 44 1921 60 1927 28 1905 1891 KCLT 93 1896 45 1983 66 1896 32 2001 KGSP 89 2002 51 1983 66 1927 28 1905 1967 && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from noon EDT today through this evening for GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029. NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from noon EDT today through this evening for NCZ036-037-056-057-068>072-082. SC...None. && $$ CAC/JPT  294 FXUS63 KDLH 141035 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 535 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cloudy today as clouds emanate from Lake Superior, foggy conditions possible closer to the Lake. - Light rain with a few rumbles of thunder across northern MN today - Better chances for severe weather to return to the Northland on Friday - Snow possible late Friday and into Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 247 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Current Conditions/Today: Thunderstorm activity has pushed well off to our southeast this morning with some scattered rain showers still appearing on radar across the Northland. Later this morning an upper level trough will eject out the Red River Valley and produce some rain showers across northern MN. There is some very weak MUCAPE in the morning that could lead to a few rumbles of thunder but overall not expecting much in way of impactful rain or storms. Look for this area of showers to moves west to east exiting the Arrowhead in the afternoon. Today will also see very cloudy conditions as easterly winds across the region will help spread the influence of Lake Superior through the Northland. Satellite imagery as of 3AM shows this expansive cloud has already engulfed NW WI and is quickly heading towards the Iron Range and the Brainerd Lake Region. Model guidance is in good agreement with keeping this blanket expanding farther east through the day. Foggy conditions will also be prevalent, especially the closer you get to Lake Superior. With this in mind we have dropped high temperatures 2-5F across the region from what the previous forecast package had. Wednesday/Thursday: We get a small reprieve in the active weather pattern for Wednesday and Thursday as the Northland finds itself in between low pressure systems with dry air aloft keeping precipitation at bay. The only exception to this may be our far southeast counties. The 00Z suite of deterministic guidance has trended farther southeast with the system but a quick glance at both the AIGFS and EC-AIFS shows northwest WI still getting clipped as the system tracks towards Lake Michigan. For now, we will keep a mention of low end PoPs of 30-40%. With the surface boundary staying well off to our south some elevated convection would be the primary concern with small hail being the main hazard if any storms do manage to form. The other low pressure to the northwest looks to stay that way with good model consensus propagating it into Ontario. Thursday will be quiet with a stalled out boundary draped across northern MN and a strong southerly push of winds through the day. Highs will climb into the 60s and 70s with the traditional cooler by the Lake type of day. Friday into the Weekend: Friday is still shaping up to be our next active and impactful weather day. An upper level trough digs into the four corners region with an elongated system developing across the Upper Midwest and down into the Central Plains. The northern most low pressure looks to make its way into northern MN with a cold front dropping south across the Brainerd Lakes. Ahead of this boundary will be a broad warm sector that will see increased dewpoints surging into the region. We will also likely see a gulf connection boosting our PWATs and adding fuel to the atmosphere for storms to develop. Current guidance would suggest moderate instability with adequate bulk shear for severe storms to develop. Details will have to be refined as we get closer but at this time it looks like all hazards will be possible ahead of the cold front. As Friday's system departs we will see a plunge of cold air crashing in from the northwest Friday night and lingering into Saturday. Wrap around moisture will fall as snow with some light accumulations overnight possible. However, given how warm we have been our ground temperatures will likely make quick work of this snow. There is a signal for increased rates late Saturday morning into the afternoon as the upper level trough pivots over the region providing a boost to synoptic forcing. The current NBM guidance wants to have a couple of inches of accumulation for Saturday, but not sure that seems reasonable even with the boost in forcing. High temperatures are still expected to get above freezing and the high sun angle for mid April should also work against these totals. SLRs are currently 15- 16:1 which seems way too high for Saturday afternoon, 10:1 max would probably be generous. Further adjustments will likely be needed. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1227 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Thunderstorm complexes are well off to the southeast this morning with radar showing some scattered rain showers still floating across the Northland, primarily over northern MN. Mostly VFR conditions to start the forecast period but easterly winds off Lake Superior is expected to spread a marine layer over much of the region lowering clouds to LIFR and producing fog. This layer is largely expected to remain in place through the day. There will also be some additional rain that comes through northern MN in the morning. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 247 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The gustiest northeast winds across Lake Superior have passed with a few gusts around 20 kts still being observed across the Lake. Small Craft Advisories have been canceled. There is an expansive cloud deck emanating from Lake Superior that is expected to remain in place through today and into tomorrow. This cloud deck may sink lower to the Lake leading to dense fog, however, webcams have not shown this development yet and model guidance is split on whether this will come to fruition. A marine dense fog advisory may be needed at later this morning. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 247 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Low fire weather concerns today and tomorrow as Min RHs largely stay above 40%. A surge of southerly winds on Thursday could lead to some drier and windier conditions. Not expecting winds or RHs to approach Red Flag Criteria. Widespread active weather returns Friday with severe weather possible followed by snow potential late Friday through Saturday. Minimal snow accumulations expected. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 535 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Recent snowmelt combined with pockets of moderate to heavy rain have led to rising and high rivers across the Northland. Pretty much every river gauge one can look at across NE MN and NW WI has seen some rise. Across the Iron Range, Brainerd Lakes, I-35 corridor, and into NW WI (outside of the South Shore), rises have been fairly controlled and minor. On the North Shore, antecedent colder snowpack and a tempered return to warmer spring temperatures has meant the melt is still getting going. Most observed river level trends still on the up swing here. The Beaver River near Beaver Bay is just starting to flirt with action stage this morning, with water expected to be just coming out of banks at this stage with some possible wet spots along the Superior Hiking Trail. Other North Shore streams are following that lead with high flows expected for most waterways in Lake and Cook County through this week as daily temperatures above freezing keep the melt going. On the South Shore, recent notable rises across the Bad River watershed have started to turn over. On the Bad, Tyler Forks, and Potato Rivers, a crest was observed overnight with downward trends this morning. As all these rivers are feeding from a similar snowpack this suggests that the peak of snowmelt rates has come and gone. Some snow remains which may result in an overall downward trend in river stage but with an embedded diurnal rise as snowmelt is enhanced in the afternoon. Because the near term threat of widespread rain-on-snow flooding appears to be past for the time being, the Flood Watch will be allowed to expire this morning, with lingering Flood Warnings for the Tyler Forks and Montreal Rivers. While some passing showers are possible through the week, it's not until Friday-Saturday that a better chance for thunderstorms and widespread rain return to the area. This should allow for remaining snowmelt to keep working through area waterways. By the time Friday rolls around, it seems most plausible that the only significant snowpack remaining would probably be along the North Shore with some pockets of snow lingering in the higher terrain of Bayfield, Ashland, and Iron Counties. Flooding concerns could be two-fold on Friday: rain-on-snow along the North Shore adding onto persisting high flows, and pluvial flash flooding in areas where conditions are already saturated (mostly NW WI). && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for WIZ002>004. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Britt AVIATION...Britt MARINE...Britt FIRE WEATHER...Britt HYDROLOGY...Levens  308 FXUS62 KMHX 141037 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 637 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Temperatures have trended warmer for Friday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Above to well above normal temperatures will prevail through the entire week with the potential for record breaking temperatures each day through Saturday. 2) Worsening drought and fire weather conditions anticipated over much of the upcoming week, with the next meaningful chance of rain not until Sunday && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Persistent upper level ridging and a warm southwest low-level flow regime will continue to strongly favor well above normal temperatures through the remainder of the week. Each day will carry at least some potential for record- tying or record-breaking temperatures. For a little context, one of our forecast aids (the ECMWF's Extreme Forecast Index -or- EFI) continues to show a very strong signal for a stretch of highly anomalous temperatures, with a focus from Wednesday through Saturday. While above normal temperatures seem to be a foregone conclusion, there may be some subtle, but important, features that could impact just how hot each day gets. One is cloudcover. The upper level ridge will flatten some today and tomorrow, which will allow convective debris clouds from the Plains to overspread the Carolinas. Like yesterday, that could hold temps down some, preventing them from reaching the full potential of the low-level thicknesses present. By Thursday, the ridge is forecast to amplify again, with more of a southwest flow aloft redeveloping. This suggests that the warmest day of the week may be Thursday if that southwest flow can divert high level clouds away from the area. Another potential caveat is a weak front that may try to edge close to the area on Friday. Given the strength of the ridge, it's unlikely that this front gets this far south, but a small cluster of guidance suggests this may happen. If so, this could put a small dent in temps, and may even allow a very low risk of a few showers. This scenario appears unlikely, but is something we'll be monitoring in guidance through the week. KEY MESSAGE 2...Drought conditions are expected to persist through the foreseeable future with no rain in the forecast until Sunday. Even then, rainfall amounts on Sunday currently look to be less than a half an inch, which won't have much of an impact on the drought. The forecast area remains in a Severe Drought (D2), with some pockets of Extreme Drought (D3) emerging over the northern NC coastal plain. Precipitation deficits over the last 60 days range from 3-6 inches, which will only increase in the upcoming rain-free week. Growing vegetation and leaf out will only increase the strain on ground water in the coming weeks. While the forecast currently has conditions not meeting criteria for fire danger statements, the very dry conditions will continue to bring an elevated threat for wildfires. It is also worth noting that breezy afternoon/evening winds will be paired with relative humidities in the 30-40% range. Again, this is above Fire Danger Statement criteria, but given the increased sensitivities, it is worth a mention. The NCFS continues a statewide burn ban until further notice. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Apart from some very shallow mist at OAJ, VFR conditions ongoing across area terminals as high pressure sits over the western Atlantic and extends over much of the southeastern CONUS. Typical warm season pattern continues today with increasing southwesterly flow and diurnal cumulus fields developing by midday. Sea breeze will cross late afternoon into early evening ushering a brief period of gusty southerly winds up to 20 kt at times. Shortly after midnight, winds will return more southwesterly at around 5 kt. Like the past couple nights, if localized decoupling occurs some patchy shallow fog may develop around the hours of 10-12z Wed morning. Outlook: Pred VFR conditions expected through the period with a more summertime pattern persisting through the week. Stronger winds likely in the coming days with tightening thermal gradient, most likely felt in the afternoons and evenings. && .MARINE... A pattern more typical of summer continues, with a daily chance of 20-25kt winds over waters favored in southwest flow where the thermal gradient is the strongest. This includes the Pamlico Sound and nearby rivers and sounds. The hottest days with the strongest thermal gradient may necessitate short-fused Small Craft Advisories, but it appears that today will not be one of those days. For the coastal waters, seas of 2-4 ft will be common through mid- week. Seas may approach 5 ft at times late in the week, especially from Cape Hatteras south. Outlook: A cold front is forecast to move through area waters on Sunday. Ahead of the front, there should be an increased risk of 25kt winds, with an even higher chance behind the front late Sunday into Monday. Of note, some of the stronger guidance suggests the potential for gale-force winds behind the front. Stay tuned for updates on this frontal passage and the potential marine impacts late in the weekend into early next week. && .CLIMATE... Record High temps for 4/14 (Tuesday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 89/1948 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 80/1994 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 93/1922 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 80/1996 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 99/1930 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 88/1977 (NCA ASOS) Record High temps for 4/15 (Wednesday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 94/1972 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 84/1922 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 96/1922 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 80/1964 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 92/1941 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 93/2006 (NCA ASOS) Record High temps for 4/16 (Thursday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 92/1972 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 78/1994 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 92/1972 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 82/2006 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 92/2006 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 91/1972 (NCA ASOS) Record High temps for 4/17 (Friday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 91/1976 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 83/2012 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 92/1972 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 82/1976 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 91/1972 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 91/2006 (NCA ASOS) && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ196-204- 205. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RM/RJ AVIATION...MS MARINE...RM  147 FXUS63 KIND 141038 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 638 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Active pattern this week with near daily chances for showers and storms. Friday likely to be the driest day of the week. - Scattered storms possible this afternoon and evening for Central and North Central Indiana, a few of which may be strong to severe. - Near record warm temperatures expected through Saturday with multiple days in the 80s and lows in the 60s. && .DISCUSSION (Today through Monday)... Issued at 319 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Through Tonight... Central Indiana remains firmly within the warm sector of an elongated area of low pressure stretching from Minnesota into the Central Plains. Southwesterly flow remains in place aloft with numerous waves of energy within the mid and upper levels bringing renewed chances for convection in Indiana. While the main storm track over the next 24 hours remains to the west and northwest, closer to the surface fronts and area of low pressure, this pattern does support scattered convection developing or tracking near Central Indiana. A very warm and humid environment with modest shear aloft will support at least a marginal threat for severe weather for the next several days as this same pattern persists. Current satelitte imagery and observations show an overnight MCS along a warm front in Wisconsin and Michigan while a dying area of showers and storms is located near St. Louis. CAMs guidance has a poor handle on the evolution of mesoscale features within this broad southwesterly flow regime within the warm sector; therefore forecast confidence on timing and placement of thunderstorm chances the next several days is fairly low. The greatest storm threat and timing will is all dependent on mesoscale and microscale boundaries which develop as these dying complexes of storms enter Central Indiana. This is a typical warm season set up where the forecast for the next 12 hours all depends on such small minute details which even CAMs struggle to resolve. Therefore, numerous forecast updates will likely occur as the convective set up for each day evolves. Based on current trends early this morning, it appears the southern end of the MCS pushing into Northern Illinois may clip portions of North Central Indiana within the 6am to 9am timeframe as the MCS backbuilds to the southwest under a strong southwesterly LLJ aloft. Elsewhere across Central Indiana, higher clouds will continue to overspread the region from dying storms to the west and the approaching storms to the northwest. Not concerned with severe storms this morning; however based on current soundings showing steep low level lapse rates, any shower has the capability to bring down higher gusts aloft in the 40-55 mph range. A lull in the precipitation chances is likely late morning through early afternoon across Central Indiana; however this is where there is lower confidence in the forecast. Will have to watch where leftover boundaries from this morning's convection set up as this will be where evening storms likely develop. Since Central Indiana is well within the warm sector away from synoptic level fronts, forcing along any leftover boundary will be fairly weak, keeping overall coverage of evening storms widely scattered. However, any storm does have the threat to be severe with all hazards on the table. 2000-3000 J/kg CAPE and 20-35 kts of shear will be enough to support a supercell threat along any of these boundaries. Current thinking is that along and north of I-70 will have the threat for these widely scattered storms 4PM to around 10PM. Will monitor how everything evolves through the day and provide forecast updates as confidence increases on exact locations of potential storm development and associated threats. Outside of storms, deep low level mixing within a warm and humid environment with continued warm air advection will result in near record high temperatures in the 80s today for Central Indiana. Wednesday through Saturday... The overall pattern remains relatively the same going into midweek as the elongated area of low pressure and fronts slowly shift closer to Indiana. With southwest flow continuing aloft, any upper impulse moving through the flow will have the potential to generate scattered convection in an unstable atmosphere. Convection generated by the front to the north could also impact North Central Indiana at times. Isolated strong to severe convection is possible given expected parameters. Temperatures on Wednesday depends on sky cover and rain coverage, but for now will go with upper 70s north to middle 80s south. No matter where convection forms, it will likely feel more like July than Mid April in this type of pattern with such high humidity levels. Wednesday night into Thursday, an upper trough moves into the area, providing better forcing for more widespread storms. The surface front could move into the area, but there is a good amount of uncertainty on timing of greatest coverage for storms Wednesday night into Thursday depending on when the front moves through and also associated smaller shortwaves, which guidance likely can't resolve at this time. While confidence is high in more widespread rain and storm chances, timing and overall extent of the severe threat is still uncertain. Brief upper ridging looks to move in on Friday, providing a dry and warm to hot day. A larger upper trough moves in on Saturday bringing a strong cold front through the area. This will result in another round of showers and thunderstorms, some possibly strong to severe once again. Sunday and Monday... A brief cool down expected for the region latter half of the weekend and into early next week. Longer range guidance continues to hint at upper troughing developing over SE Canada and the NE CONUS going into early next week, allowing for cooler airmasses from Canada to drop southward behind Saturday's front. Still uncertainty on the overall location and track of the incoming high pressure, but confidence remains high in a few days of much cooler weather and the potential for a few frosty mornings in the 30s. Highs will be below normal, with the coldest readings Sunday in the 50s. Lows in the middle to upper 30s may occur Saturday night and Sunday night. Frost potnetial is certainly there but confidence is only marginal at this time as the placement of the high pressure will ultimately determine if optimal conditions for radiational cooling and frost occur over Central Indiana or elsewhere within the Ohio Valley. && .AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 638 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Impacts: - Wind gusts up to 25 to 35 kts likely through the period - Scattered convection may impact sites 13-16z then again 21z-02z. Discussion: Satellite imagery and observations show Central Indiana firmly within the warm sector of an elongated area of low pressure in the Central Plains. Low level south-southwesterly flow will continue through the period with gusts of 25-35 kts to continue. Latest IND ACARs sounding still shows a well mixed boundary layer under an inversion at almost 2km agl. This is a fairly deep mixed layer for the early morning hours. With a strong nocturnal low level jet overhead, expect these stronger gusts at or above 35 kts to persist into the mid to late morning hours, diminishing some into the 20-25 kt range by the afternoon as the LLJ weakens. Lower confidence forecast regarding convection in this type of pattern as short term hi-res guidance struggles to handle these early morning storm complexes. Watching two complexes of storms in Illinois with which could impact Central Indiana in the 12-16z timeframe. The northern complex which moved into Northern Illinois has a gust front pushing southward into Central Illinois with convection developing on the backside of the boundary. This gust front moving south in addition to a subtle MCV has enhanced convection in Central Illinois as well. As these complexes essentially merge and continue east, these storms should enter portions of north Central Indiana within the next couple hours. Expect the best chance for storms in the 13-15z timeframe before the low level jet weakens. There isn't much forcing to sustain these storms further east other than the LLJ, so as the LLJ weakens after 15z, these storms should quickly dissipate. KLAF has the best chance at seeing a storm, while KIND may get clipped as the storms are weakening. Kept a Prob30 group in for -TSRA. Brief periods of heavy rain, MVFR or worse cigs and vis likely under any shower or storm. Leftover boundaries later this afternoon within a very unstable and moist airmass should result in some afternoon convective development within Central Indiana, mostly likely along and north of I-70 in the 20z-02z timeframe. These storms would have the potential to be severe if they get going. Low confidence in finer details in this pattern. Will be able to determine where the highest threat is later this afternoon once boundaries for storms actually develop. Even when storms do develop, they may be widely scattered, but still think the threat is high enough to include a Prob30 group for storms this evening for the sites along and north of I-70. Cigs and vis should be largely VFR for the most part today, with brief periods of MVFR or worse conditions under any shower or thunderstorm. Brief periods of MVFR cigs this morning as a BKN025- BKN030 deck has developed within such a moist low level environment. Expect cigs to bounce between MVFR and low VFR this morning with convection in the vicinity. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Within the setup described in the discussion above, near record temperatures are possible at times this week, mainly Tuesday, and Friday. Whether readings get close depends on sky cover and any rain staying away, which keeps confidence lower at this time. Current deterministic model runs are cooler than the records, but the potential exists to get within a few degrees if everything lines up. On Tuesday April 14, Indy's record high is 85, set in 1883. On Friday April 17, Indy's record high is 87, set in 1896. Record high minimum temperatures are also in play at times given the warm and relatively humid air mass. The first opportunity for this comes Monday, when the record high minimum at Indy is 63, set in 2014 and tied in 2018. At the moment, the forecast is for tying that number. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ AVIATION...CM DISCUSSION...CM CLIMATE...Ryan  125 FXUS63 KIWX 141040 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 640 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A complex of showers and thunderstorms will shift southeast across the southern Great Lakes this morning bringing a potential of some gusty winds and brief heavy rain. Some uncertainty persists with how far southeast this band of showers and thunderstorms will survive this morning. - Isolated storms are possible this afternoon, especially across northwest into portions of north central IN. However great chances of thunderstorms will be this evening into the early morning hours Wednesday. There is a Slight Risk of severe storms tonight with damaging wind gusts to 60 mph and hail to 1 to 2 inches in diameter as primary threats. An isolated tornado is possible, but of lower confidence. - Locally heavy rainfall is possible tonight into Wednesday which may result in some renewed areal and river flooding concerns. - Above normal temperatures will continue into this first part of weekend before a cold front brings below normal temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 322 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A complicated forecast over the next 72 hours with several rounds of convection possible. Severe weather is possible each day through Thursday, with greatest confidence in scattered severe storms tonight. A convective complex is ongoing this morning across Wisconsin to the Lake Michigan vicinity with an associated outflow boundary extending from northeast Iowa to far southeast Wisconsin. This convective system has shown signs of both downwind propagation (eastward across east central Wisconsin) and upwind propagation (southeastward across south central Wisconsin). A strong low level jet feeding into this boundary should help sustain additional convection and southeast push of the outflow to southern Lake Michigan this morning. The tendency over next few hours may be for increasing trend in stronger cores to be displaced further behind outflow boundary due to some stronger downstream MLCIN across the southern Great Lakes. May need to watch for potential of isolated severe gust across primarily southern Lower Michigan this morning where more of a forward propagation may be favored, but a higher confidence potential does exist across NW IN/southern Lower MI for some 40+ mph wind gusts this morning. There have been some instances of small scale circulations developing at leading edge of the line across SE Wisconsin in QLCS type setup. If forward propagating system can reach southern Lower Michigan this morning cannot completely rule out similar evolution where westerly 30-35 knot 0-3 km shear vector has a more favorable orientation, but more limited instability with southward extent and more likely more parallel orientation of shear vectors to line through time may limit this potential. Another thing to monitor for today could be possibility of some small scale convectively enhanced short wave kicking northeast out of eastern Missouri this morning which could interact with the southward dropping outflow boundary across northeast or east central Illinois. Timing of this interaction would probably be late morning/midday period in unfavorable timing in terms of peak diurnal instability, but may need to watch for some uptick in convection across far west/southwest late morning given steep mid level lapse rates in place. Overall forecast thinking has not changed greatly for the primary severe weather threat period tonight. The outflow boundary will likely stall from NE Illinois into portions of IWX forecast area this morning, with instability recovery likely by late afternoon as this instability gradient is advected back northward via stronger low/mid level flow associated with convectively enhanced short waves to the southwest. Some isolated stronger storms are possible in vicinity of this instability gradient as it lifts north, but the possibility exists for weak CIN to hold. By this evening low level flow will back some to the southwest in response to a progressive wave across working across the Upper Midwest. This should yield a pocket of strong 925-850 mb moisture convergence from eastern IA into southern WI this evening which looks prime for convection initiation. Some lower confidence still persists in how convection will evolve tonight, whether a coherent cold pool and southeast propagating convective system occurs, or if storms remain just slightly elevated north of the composite boundary. Supercell wind profiles will likely be in place again by this evening as a stronger mid level jet lifts across northeast IL late afternoon with a wind/hail threat. Best combination of shear/instability still looks possible across NW IN/SW Lower MI where all severe hazards would appear more likely, although helicity profiles more favorable for tornadoes may be displaced west across northern IL where shear may be augmented by the low/mid level jet. As mentioned, still uncertainty with details in convective mode tonight, but overall key themes from previous forecast remain intact. Some heavy rain potential may materialize later tonight as potential outflow with southern Great Lakes storms could become more favorably oriented parallel to veering low level westerly flow. It is difficult to get into too much detail regarding severe potential for Wed/Thu as this be highly dependent on previous day's convective evolution and hard to resolve smaller individual smaller scale waves in this pattern. This situation is a complex one as stubbornness of longwave ridging to break down across eastern CONUS results in multiple upstream short waves shearing out as they encounter this ridge, and also an added increased susceptibility to convectively enhanced short waves from southern Plains/lower MS Valley. Instability profiles will likely be more limited for Wednesday and Thursday, although at least Wednesday should still feature respectable wind shear profiles that could allow for at least an isolated severe threat. Some small increase in instability is possible Thursday as upper ridge finally appears to be broken down by stronger mid level wave, but shear profiles may become a bit more marginal by this time. The extended period of above normal temperatures will continue through the first part of the weekend. Medium range guidance is starting to come into a little better agreement in timing frontal passage with next more substantial longwave trough for first part of the weekend. Much too early for details, but some strong/severe threat could accompany frontal convection Saturday depending on timing. May also need to watch for periods of strong synoptic winds this weekend in both pre-frontal and post-frontal environments. Cooler, below normal temperatures should build in for second half of weekend into next Monday, but residence time of this cooler air looks to be limited. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 628 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 An outflow boundary from the organized convective complex across Wisconsin has lost much of its momentum this morning across north central Indiana. An additional convectively enhanced short wave lifting out of northern Missouri will likely interact with this lingering outflow for additional storms in vicinity of the boundary and in a more elevated sense behind it. This greater precip threat should diminish late morning/midday. There is a potential for an isolated storm along the old outflow boundary this afternoon, although some capping and weaker large scale forcing should limit this overall threat. It still appears as though favored convective initiation should occur across nrn IL/srn WI later tonight and likely propagating into northern Indiana late evening. Still some uncertainty persists regarding convective mode and whether storms may develop a cold pool and sink south, or remain mainly confined across far northern Indiana for much of the night. Given this uncertainty will keep PROB30 TSRA mention going at this forecast distance. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for LMZ043- 046. && $$ DISCUSSION...Marsili AVIATION...Marsili  148 FXUS61 KCTP 141040 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 640 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Slight Risk severe weather outlook introduced for Wednesday north of PA Turnpike && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Summerlike warmth visits the region this week with near-record daily maxes and daily mins on tap for Wednesday and Thursday. 2) Several periods of showers and thunderstorms expected during the upcoming week, with the greatest amount of rainfall likely occurring across northern and western PA. Some storms may be severe, particularly on Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Summerlike warmth visits the region this week with near-record daily maxes and daily mins on tap for Wednesday and Thursday. Ensemble prediction systems are in good agreement showing a mean upper-level trough across the western CONUS, with downstream upper ridging taking hold from the Gulf states up the eastern seaboard. This will bring a notable warming trend, with daily highs ranging from the 70s-mid 80s across central PA from Tuesday onward. The latest forecast brings near-record temperatures across the region Wednesday morning through Friday morning, with lows both Wednesday and Thursday morning forecast to be warmer than our average highs this time of year (25 to 30 deg F above normal). Highs in the 70s and 80s will accompany lows in the 50s and 60s. Dewpoints will start to approach the 60F mark, so it will feel a bit humid but not overly uncomfortable. ---------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 2: Several periods of showers and thunderstorms expected during the upcoming week, with the greatest amount of rainfall likely occurring across northern and western PA. Some storms may be severe, particularly on Wednesday. In general for the workweek ahead, the storm track will run from SW to NE across the Great Lakes, with several waves of low pressure drifting into Ontario, CA. A frontal boundary will set up generally west to east across New York and keep unsettled weather in place across northwest PA in particular. For Tuesday, SPC has expanded the MRGL Risk for SVR TSRA to include all of central PA for the afternoon and evening as a 35 to 40 kt WSW LLVL wind max will be present during peak heating as remnants of an MCS approach from the NW. With SBCAPE fcst in the 500-1000J/kg range, renewed convection is likely to initiate with a marginal threat of damaging winds. The severe weather outlook climbs to Slight Risk for Wednesday, fueled in part by increasing low level heat and humidity as dewpoints rise to near 60F. Cool temps aloft will result in steep lapse rates with SBCAPE progged above 1000J/kg across much of central PA. With about 30 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear, discrete cells and clusters/linear segments will be possible. Over the course of the workweek, the probability for showers/storms will be highest in northwest PA. Locations that have been wet lately will continue to see more rain with 1-2 inches expected by Friday, while drought-stricken locations across the southeast part of our CWA will see less rainfall. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Outside of a few showers around BFD, mainly dry conditions are expected for much of the morning. VFR conditions should continue everywhere except for BFD, where most guidance continues to show MVFR ceilings developing for the late morning/early afternoon. The next round of widespread showers and thunderstorms is expected to move in for the afternoon and evening. PROB30s for -SHRA/-TSRA have been included at all TAF sites to highlight this threat. There is still some uncertainty regarding the timing and coverage of these storms, so this part of the forecast will need to be refined with upcoming TAF issuances. These storms will be capable of producing strong wind gusts, potentially in excess of 40 knots. Winds outside of thunderstorms will be out of the west-southwest at 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 20 to 25 knots likely. Another round of showers and storms appears likely to move into the region from the northwest after 06Z Wednesday. Surface winds will decrease to less than 10 knots after sunset, but winds around 2000 feet will strengthen to around 40 knots over southwestern PA. This will bring a period of LLWS to JST and AOO. VFR conditions should continue across most of the region overnight, but MVFR ceilings likely redevelop at BFD after 06Z. Outlook... Wed-Thu...VFR most of the time, but brief restrictions possible in hit and miss showers and thunderstorms, mainly across the north and west. Fri...Restrictions possible early, then improving to VFR in the afternoon. Sat...Restrictions in SHRA early, drier conditions late. && .CLIMATE... Record high daily maxes and mins are possible this week as summerlike warmth visits the region. Here's a look at the records as they stand right now, with a * indicating that the forecast is equal to or greater than the record. Record High Daily Max / Daily Min... For Harrisburg: April 15: 87* (1941) / 61* (2023) April 16: 89 (2002) / 63* (1941) April 17: 91 (2002) / 60* (2002) For Williamsport: April 15: 86 (1994) / 57* (2023) April 16: 90 (2002) / 55* (2023) April 17: 91 (2002) / 58* (1896) && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Colbert KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl/Colbert DISCUSSION...Steinbugl/Colbert AVIATION...Bauco CLIMATE...Colbert  625 FXUS61 KGYX 141042 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 642 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes since the previous forecast cycle. An isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorm remains possible across southwestern NH this afternoon and early evening. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Warm with a chance for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across southwest New Hampshire. 2. Generally above normal temperatures persist into the weekend, along with chances for showers most days. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... New England will sit within the warm sector of low pressure to our west today as an advancing frontal boundary approaches from the west. Ahead of this frontal boundary, southerly winds combined with partly cloudy skies will help to warm temperatures into the 60s across much of western ME with middle to upper 70s in southern NH. Temperatures will fall during the afternoon across much of southwestern ME as a sea breeze boundary advances inland while southern NH stays well into the 70s. The SPC REFS shows mean SBCAPE approaching 500-1000 J/KG for a few hours this afternoon across southwestern NH with up to 500 J/KG towards the Nashua-Concord Corridor. Latest CAMS indicate there will be up to around 40 kts of deep layer shear in place as well. Despite steep low-lvl lapse rates, mid-lvl lapse rates currently appear rather weak and this should help mitigate storm intensity some. The latest SPC outlook places portions of southern NH into a MRGL Risk (Level 1 out of 5) with the primary threat being locally strong to damaging winds. Further to the east and north towards ME, instability will drop off quickly due to the marine layer and therefore severe storms are not anticipated in those locations. Any lingering storms in southern NH this evening will end with the loss of daytime heating but scattered showers will remain possible through the first half of the night areawide. Low temperatures will range from the 40s across much of western ME with 50s in NH. Patchy fog is possible through Wednesday morning. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Mid-level ridging is anticipated to continue through the second half of the week, though conditions looked to be more unsettled than not. The unsettled weather, in addition to a backdoor cold front and a seabreeze, will complicate the temperature forecast on Thursday + Friday. A complex frontal boundary looks to pivot across New England Wednesday evening, allowing for a damp afternoon. Upwind from our showers, a region of modest instability, 60kts of mean shear and 800J of MUCAPE allows for convective initiation over central New York. These storms will move eastward with storms that develop likely maintaining strength as they move across southern New Hampshire Wednesday night. This is due to an increase in MUCAPE, despite the development of a strong night-time diurnal cap. These storms look to move progressively but they also could be solid rainmakers as well, with PWATs above the 99th percentile Wednesday night. A low pressure system follows right behind the aforementioned frontal boundary, allowing for more showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and into Friday morning. Conditions may dry a little, but generally overcast and showery weather could continue through the weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 12Z Wednesday: Local IFR or lower in some valley fog this morning. At this time only affecting RKD for TAF sites. That fog will scatter out in the next hour or two as daytime heating begins to mix the boundary layer. Otherwise VFR conditions expected until showers/storms arrive along the cold front late this afternoon/early this evening. These are most likely to affect TAF sites in NH, but some elevated thunderstorms are possible near PWM. Timing is generally between 21z and 01z, from northwest to southeast. Across southwestern NH I cannot rule out locally strong to severe wind gusts up to 50 kt. As the front approaches the coast model guidance also wants to bring in marine layer fog/stratus. This could lead to widespread areas of IFR or lower conditions overnight. Outlook: Wednesday-Thursday: MVFR due to showers and thunderstorms. Friday-Saturday: MVFR due to showers and thunderstorms, though brief windows of VFR are possible. Sunday: MVFR due to showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Southerly winds and seas generally stay below SCA threshold through tonight, although an occasional gust up to around 25 kts is possible. Sub-SCA conditions continue through the rest of the week. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Palmer/Tubbs AVIATION...Legro/Palmer/Tubbs MARINE...Palmer/Tubbs  822 FXUS62 KTAE 141042 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 642 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 639 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Patchy fog is possible this morning over the Florida Panhandle and Southeast Alabama, mainly west of the Choctawhatchee River. If encountering fog while driving, slow down, use low beam headlights, and increase braking distance. - Little or no rain is expected through this weekend. Drought conditions will worsen. Fire concerns will remain elevated. Use extreme caution with any outdoor burning. Please heed burn bans where they are in effect. - Above normal temperatures will continue through this weekend, with lower 90s likely late this week. && .SHORT AND LONG TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 222 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A large upper level ridge will prevail over the southeast US through the remainder of the week. Under this ridge, surface high pressure will remain dominant with high temperatures well above normal and in the upper 80s. It wouldn't be surprising for some locations to touch the 90s by the upcoming weekend. With the ridge in control, no rainfall is expected through the remainder of the week and potentially into the weekend. Fire concerns will also stay elevated given the dry conditions in place and expected forecast. The ridge will likely begin to break down some late in the weekend and into early next week as a frontal system approaches. However, rainfall amounts will be very small, if any, from this frontal system. The main concerns with this system will be the influx of drier air and potential increase in fire weather concerns given elevated post-frontal winds. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 639 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. The lone exception could be brief patchy MVFR/IFR fog this morning at ECP but these conditions should improve quickly to VFR by 14z. Similar conditions are possible tonight, with most fog/ceiling restriction being limited to ECP/DHN. && .MARINE... Issued at 222 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A surface high extending from the western Atlantic will keep generally light to gentle southeasterly winds over the waters for the next several days. Seabreezes can be expected to push just inland during the afternoon hours. Later this week, the High will settle a little further south, shifting our winds more southerly. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 222 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Warm and dry conditions will continue through the week as drought conditions will continue and/or worsen. Transport winds will generally be southerly; swinging from southeasterly to southwesterly at around 5-10 mph. Expect afternoon seabreezes across Florida counties. Dispersions will be moderate, with higher dispersions expected by Wednesday lasting into the weekend. Given antecedent conditions and RHs dropping into the low 30% range most afternoons, expect some fire concerns each day. While uncertainty remains high at these longer lead times, some greater fire weather concerns could develop over the weekend or early next week with the passage of a dry cold front. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 222 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 No rain is expected for the next several days. Drought conditions will continue or worsen. For more local drought information & statements, visit the following websites: weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 87 59 88 58 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 81 61 81 63 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 87 58 88 58 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 88 60 89 60 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 88 59 90 58 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 87 57 88 58 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 76 62 77 63 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114- 115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Dobbs LONG TERM....Dobbs AVIATION...Dobbs MARINE...Dobbs FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs HYDROLOGY...Dobbs  991 FXUS66 KMFR 141043 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 343 AM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .DISCUSSION...A shortwave ridge passing over northern California and southern Oregon will allow for a period of calm this morning and afternoon. Daytime highs will warm slightly from Monday's temperatures, and clouds will linger through the afternoon west of the Cascades while east side areas may see some clear skies. A cold front will bring some coastal showers this evening, with more widespread rainfall expected on Wednesday. Coastal cities look to see 1 to 1.5 inches of rainfall, while coastal ranges could see around 2 inches. Rainfall in the Umpqua Valley is forecast to be between 0.75 and 1 inch, with other valleys and basins seeing lower amounts through Wednesday. With snow levels expected to hover at 4500-5500 feet from the front's arrival through Wednesday morning, winter impacts look to be limited to the Cascades. A Winter Weather Advisory is in place for areas near and north of Crater Lake and at elevations above 5000 feet from Wednesday morning through Thursday morning, given that snowfall in this area is expected to make travel hazardous. Snowfall amounts of 12 to 16 inches are forecast over the Cascades on Wednesday. Current SPC guidance shows 50-90% chances for snowfall rates of 1 inch per hour late Wednesday morning into early in the afternoon. Gusty winds are expected over elevated terrain on Wednesday, especially east of the Cascades. Gusts along Winter Rim and the Warner Mountains have 50-80% chances to reach 45 mph in that late Wednesday morning-early afternoon timeframe, per HREF probabilistic guidance. Gusts of 20-30 mph are more widespread across east side areas. Activity across the area eases on Wednesday evening, but a cold air mass looks to bring impactful overnight low temperatures for west side valleys. The Rogue, Applegate, Illinois, and western Klamath County valleys are all forecast to see lows from the mid 20s to low 30s on these nights. These temperatures would bring chances of frost or freezing conditions. East of the Cascades, overnight lows look to be in the mid teens to low 20s. Chilly nights aside, Thursday looks to be a quieter day. While snow levels drop to 1500-2000 feet in the morning, declining activity will minimize the chance of impactful winter conditions at lower elevations. Another shortwave ridge looks to bring warmer temperatures and dry conditions on Friday and Saturday. Long-term deterministic imagery is showing more agreement of a low pressure system approaching the area from the northwest, bringing periods of southwest or southerly flow. While details are still coarse, the tight pressure gradients aloft in imagery tend to indicate stronger winds, and southerly flow patterns tend to deliver moderate to heavy precipitation to the Mount Shasta area and coastal terrain. Details remain coarse for this timeframe, so stay tuned for additional details on continuing active weather. -TAD && .AVIATION 06Z TAFs)... Conditions are mainly VFR tonight through Tuesday morning. However, MVFR is expected to develop along the coast tonight and persist through Tuesday. Local MVFR ceilings are possible late tonight and Tuesday morning west of the Cascades, including at Roseburg and Medford (20% chance). Tuesday afternoon and evening, rain and areas of MVFR will spread along the coast and into areas from the Cascades west. Conditions may worsen Tuesday evening with a mix of IFR/MVFR conditions in rain for coast areas. && .MARINE...Updated 100 AM PDT Tuesday, April 14, 2026...Seas will stay below advisory level strength through this morning. A front will start passing through the region later today. This will result in widespread precipitation, strong winds, and steep seas this evening and into Wednesday. Localized areas of very steep and hazardous seas may be possible north of Coos Bay as the front initially starts to transition over the waters. Steep seas will continue behind the front through Thursday afternoon. A thermal trough may bring gusty northerly winds over the outer waters and south of Cape Blanco on Friday. Another active system may bring additional rainfall and steep seas this weekend. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ027. CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM PDT Thursday for PZZ350-356-370-376. && $$  692 FXUS61 KAKQ 141044 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 644 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the forecast at this time. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Record to near-record high temperatures are expected from today through Thursday. 2) Continued dry with fire weather concerns expected for much of the week. 3) Well above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather continue through Saturday. A stronger cold front brings a chance for showers on Sunday, but it does not look at all like a widespread soaking rain. Many areas likely see less than 0.10". && .DISCUSSION... As of 220 AM EDT Tuesday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Record to near-record high temperatures are expected from today through Thursday. Surface high pressure has settled well offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast, with strong upper ridging situated from the Gulf coast to Southeast CONUS. High pressure will build into the western Atlantic during the next day or so. The resulting persistent return flow will lock in a very warm, dry SSW flow regime through Thursday. This Bermuda High setup, more typical of early to mid summer, will allow for record to near record high temperatures through Thursday. Highs today climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s, with low to mid 90s on Wednesday, and mainly low 90s on Thursday. Highs will be a few degrees cooler on the eastern shore. The current records at our long- term climate sites noted in the climate section below. Thunderstorms will develop well to our NW (over WV/PA) this afternoon but are expected to dissipate well before reaching the area this evening as they run into the warmer temps aloft (and lower sfc dew points). KEY MESSAGE 2...Continued dry with fire weather concerns expected for much of the week. With high pressure dominating our weather pattern, and no appreciable precipitation expected through the end of the week, fire weather concerns will remain an issue to monitor for much of the rest of the week. After collaboration with state forestry officials and surrounding weather offices yesterday (Monday), will not be issuing any further Increased Fire Statements for VA/NC at this time. While breezy return flow continues today, winds/gusts are not quite as high as they were yesterday. That said, minimum RH values are, and will continue to be low, averaging 25-30% inland and 30-35% closer to the coast. Overall though, fire wx conditions remain around critical fire wx thresholds through the middle of the week. KEY MESSAGE 3...Well above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather continue through Saturday. A stronger cold front brings a chance for showers on Sunday, but it does not look at all like a widespread soaking rain. Many areas likely see less than 0.10". Slightly cooler (80s) on Friday as a weak shortwave brings more cloud cover to the area. Moisture return ahead of this feature will be meager, so only isolated showers are possible on Friday with that shortwave. Rain amounts will likely be a few hundredths of an inch at best, and most areas will stay dry. Very warm and dry (~90F inland) on Saturday as upper heights build again. Global models and ensembles continue to suggest that a stronger front crosses the area on Sunday as low pressure tracks into Ontario/Quebec. Moisture return ahead of this front will be a little bit better than what is expected on Friday, but it does not look promising for a widespread soaking rain. Isolated to perhaps scattered showers are possible during the day, with a low chc of a tstm. Ensemble probs of 0.10" of rain are 30-60% (highest near the coast). Mild wx returns behind the front early next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 645 AM EDT Tuesday... High pressure offshore of the region will favor VFR conditions through the TAF period and beyond. Skies will be mostly clear outside of high clouds through the period. FEW cumulus could develop in the aftn. Winds remain around 10 kt this morning. Gusty SW winds (to ~20 kt) return during the late morning- afternoon. Outlook: VFR and dry conditions are expected to prevail through Saturday. S-SW winds also prevail throughout the forecast period, as high pressure settles over the western Atlantic. && .MARINE... As of 220 AM EDT Tuesday... - Sub-SCA conditions are expected to prevail through much of the week and into the weekend. - Next round of potential elevated marine conditions return by the end of the weekend. Morning weather analysis shows a 1026mb high pressure sitting off the southeast coast. Due to the location of the high pressure SW winds continue to prevail across all waters. Latest observations are showing winds sustained between 10 to 15 kt. Seas at this time remain benign with waves between 1 to 2 ft across the bay and 3 to 4 ft across the ocean. Through the course of the day and generally through the week winds will remain out of the SW and sub-SCA conditions will prevail as the high pressure off the SE coast locks into place. Winds will generally remain between 10 to 15 kt with perhaps some brief 20 kt gusts across the open ocean. Will note that there is the potential for perhaps a brief period of 20 kt gusts across the bay late Thursday into Friday as a weak cold front pushes out of the north. However, confidence in these 20 kt gusts are low at this time due to the pressure gradient being weak and winds prevailing out of the SW. Seas during this time frame will remain steady with 1-2ft seas across the bay and 3 to 4 ft seas across the ocean. The next best chance for any marine headlines (primarily SCA) will be Sunday into Monday. Recent model guidance continues to show a moderate to strong cold front moving across the area. As this cool and dry airmass moves into place it will allow winds to increase over the waters with gusts potentially between 20-25kt. Trends in the model data will continue to be monitored as the weekend approaches. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temps for 4/14 - 4/16 Record Record Record High/Year High/Year High/Year Location 4/14 4/15 4/16 -------- ---- ----- ------ Richmond 90 (1977) 92 (1941) 93 (1976) Norfolk 90 (1941) 90 (2024) 91 (1976) Salisbury 87 (1941) 87 (1941) 89 (1976) Eliz. City 90 (1941) 91 (1941) 90 (1941) Record High Min Temps for 4/14 - 4/16 Record Record Record High High High Min T/Year Min T/Year Min T/Year Location 4/14 4/15 4/16 -------- ---- ----- ------ Richmond 65 (1899) 64 (2018) 64 (1912) Norfolk 68 (2019) 68 (1941) 66 (2017) Salisbury 65 (1945) 64 (2002) 63 (2017) Eliz. City 68 (2019) 68 (1974) 68 (1994) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ERI/MAM AVIATION...ERI MARINE...HET/RMM CLIMATE...MAM  507 FXUS65 KFGZ 141046 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 346 AM MST Tue Apr 14 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Look for gusty winds and mainly isolated showers today as the current storm system moves eastward. Another round of windy weather is expected Thursday, followed by cooler temperatures Friday as a weather system passes to our north. The weekend looks dry with warmer daytime temperatures and well below normal morning lows. && .DISCUSSION...The current low pressure system will rapidly exit Arizona today. The best chance for showers will be toward the Arizona/New Mexico border through mid-morning. There could be an additional inch or two of snow in the higher elevations of the Chuska mountains with rain amounts ranging from 0.10-0.20 at lower elevations. The snow level will range roughly from 6,000-6,500 feet through the early morning hours. For the remainder of the day enough moisture will linger for isolated instability showers which should mainly be light and brief. Behind the low pressure system gradients will weaken so it won't be as windy as was observed on Monday. Consequently, we are looking at primarily west winds at 10-20 mph with a few gusts approaching 30 mph with the higher values mainly located from Flagstaff eastward. On Wednesday...Dry air will move in from the west. Pressure gradients will be much weaker with southwest to west winds at 5-15 mph forecast. The air mass will be milder with temperatures ranging near seasonal averages. For Thursday through Friday...Another trough will deliver a glancing blow to northern Arizona. The main impact will be a return to stronger winds. On Thursday, ahead of the trough axis, winds will become southwest at 15-25 mph gusting to 35-45 mph. Winds will remain gusty Thursday night but gradually weaken and shift to a west to northwest direction as the trough axis moves across the area. Friday will see west to northwest winds at 10-20 mph gusting to 30 mph behind the trough. There will be some dynamics for upward motion along the Arizona/Utah border but with limited moisture the chances for any showers will be slight, mainly Thursday night through the morning Friday. From Saturday onward...Even drier air moves in. With lighter winds and strong radiational cooling there will be the potential for elevations above 6,500 feet to see low temperatures in the teens to mid 20s both Saturday and Sunday mornings. Another trough will approach Arizona from Sunday into early next week with gusty southwest winds returning to begin next week. && .AVIATION...Tuesday 14/12Z through Wednesday 15/12Z...Mainly VFR conditions with only isolated -SHRA/-SHSN and MVFR conditions through 00Z. Winds primarily west at 10-20 kts. Gusts to 25-30 kts east of KFLG. Winds becoming light and variable at less than 10 kts overnight. OUTLOOK...Wednesday 15/12Z through Friday 17/12Z...VFR conditions are forecast. Winds southwest to west at 5-15 kts on Wednesday, becoming southwest at 15-25 kts gusting to 30-40 kts on Thursday. Winds remaining locally gusty Thursday night. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Wednesday...Isolated showers will linger today, mainly light and brief. Dry conditions return on Wednesday. Winds west at 10-20 mph gusting to 30 mph today, then diminishing to southwest to west at 5-15 mph on Wednesday. Thursday through Saturday...Dry through the period. Winds southwest at 10-20 mph gusting to 25-35 mph on Thursday, shifting to northwest on Friday, then turning variable at 5-15 mph on Saturday. Minimum RH of 10-20% is forecast for Thursday and Friday, then turning a bit drier at 10-15% on Saturday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...McCollum AVIATION...McCollum FIRE WEATHER...McCollum For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff  804 FXUS64 KLIX 141046 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 546 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 445 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Sun and temperature related health risks will be the primary concern with sunny skies and warm temperatures on tap through much of the week. Make sure to use sunscreen and drink plenty of water if you intend to be outside enjoying activities like sports and festivals. - Light fog development remains possible each morning particularly near water bodies. Chances for higher coverage of moderate to dense fog exists Wednesday morning, but forecast confidence is low at this time. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Wednesday night) Issued at 1111 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Large scale ridging from the Atlantic continues to hold strong. This is quite common for spring, but the strength of the western periphery of the actual ridge is quite strong for this time of year. This means that most, and lately, all of the precip associated with weaknesses is held farther west and north of our area. This will eventually change, but this is not seen in the short range. A dry, relatively warm, but comfortable temps does help those who are enjoying the outdoors and this time of year is one of the best for our area. But, we all know what is just around the corner, enjoy. && .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through Monday) Issued at 1111 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 An upper ridge is expected to be in control of most of the Gulf Friday evening. A strong trough will move from the northern and central Rockies Friday night to the Appalachians by Sunday night, and into New England by sunset Monday. While the best upper support will be well to the north of our area, it will still push a cold front through the local area, most likely on Saturday night. While forecast soundings show precipitable water values approaching 1.5 inches (90th percentile) across the northern portion of the area Saturday night, low level forcing looks rather weak. While it may rain Saturday night or Sunday morning, it looks like amounts are going to be very light, maybe not even a tenth of an inch. It does appear that the front will reach into the Gulf, but some question as to whether it progresses far enough to clear out the skies Sunday or Monday across most of the area. Current indications are that drying might make it as far south as Interstate 10 or so, before the boundary starts pushing back to the north Monday night or Tuesday. Still looks like temperatures will run 7-10 degrees above normal until the front arrives. The NBM deterministic high for Friday is very close to the NBM 25th percentile, so a 90 degree high at Baton Rouge still looks in play for Friday. Saturday might be a degree or two cooler. Highs Sunday and Monday, unsurprisingly, will depend on cloud cover. If we stay cloudy, highs will need to be lowered, and low temperatures raised, as the GFS solution keeps dew points about 5-10 degrees higher Sunday into Monday. (RW) && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 445 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The largest terminals are VFR, with exception of MCB, in both cigs and vis but there are some MVFR and IFR vis and cigs impacting smaller sites. This could occur at the larger terminals for a very short duration this morning but the chances of it occurring is low enough to not show in current taf pack. There is a chance of MVFR cigs moving in toward sunrise Wed morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 1111 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Strong surface high pressure from the northeast gulf into the Atlantic continues to produce a moderate easterly to southeasterly fetch over the northern Gulf. Winds will remain 10 to 15 kt throughout the week. Onshore flow will continue through at least Saturday with the potential for offshore flow from a cold front coming on Sunday and into early next week. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TE LONG TERM....TE AVIATION...RW MARINE...TE  372 FXUS61 KCAR 141048 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 648 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... -Minor jam remains in place on the Allagash River by the bridge with substantial sheet ice remaining upstream. That is now the only known river ice remaining at this time on northern Maine rivers. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Above normal temperatures through the end of the week combined with some rainfall will continue to melt the remaining snow and ice and clear the northern rives. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Above normal temperatures through the end of the week combined with some rainfall will continue to melt the remaining snow and ice and clear the northern rives. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... High temperatures through mid-week will range from around 50 in the north to around 60 over some interior southern spots. Highs over the north will continue to be in the upper 50s to near 60 into late week while highs in the south will continue to warm reaching around 60 on Saturday. This will combine with some light rain events Tuesday night and again Thursday night which together may add an additional quarter to a half inch of rainfall across the area. The warm temperatures, moist air, and rain will continue to erode what remains of the snow and ice, as well as the river ice over the north. River gauges across the north have shown some fluctuations due to ice movement and a minor ice jam has been reported on the Allagash River. Flooding is currently not anticipated. However, we will monitor the fluctuations in river levels and ice movement as the rain, snow melt, and warmer temperatures continue to cause the river ice to break up and erode. It is likely that the most of the northern rivers will be clear by the end of the week with any lingering ice continuing to melt and dissipate over the weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Today...MVFR cigs at northern terminals this morning, improving to VFR. Downeast terminals will vary between VFR and IFR in early morning fog, improving to VFR. NW 5-10kts early becoming light and variable in the afternoon, with ENE winds northern sites and S Downeast terminals. Tonight...IFR restrictions at all terminals tonight in cigs and fog. LIFR fog possible at BHB late in the period. E 5-10kts north, SSE 5kts Downeast terminals. Wednesday...VFR/MVFR early then dropping as rain moves in late afternoon. Light E winds. Wednesday night...IFR to LIFR all sites. Winds NE less than 5 kt. Thursday...IFR. SE to S winds around 5 kt. Thursday night...IFR, possibly improving to MVFR over the north late. S wind around 5 kt becoming W. Friday...VFR. NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Friday night...VFR, possibly lowering to MVFR over the north late. NE to E wind less than 5 kt. Saturday...MVFR becoming VFR over the north. VFR over the south. SE wind 5 to 10 kt. && .MARINE... Seas will continue to lower this morning to below small craft levels. No headlines are anticipated through Wednesday. Cannot rule out patchy fog and possibly a thunderstorm over the waters this afternoon and evening. Winds are expected to be below SCA through the coming weekend and seas around 3 ft. Moist air over the colder waters will likely produce some fog and mist over the waters and along the shore with the best chances for fog Wednesday night and again on Friday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ050- 051. && $$ DISCUSSION...MB/21 AVIATION...MB/21  670 FXUS63 KJKL 141050 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 650 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Unseasonably warm conditions are expected for much of the next week. The warmest days are forecast to be Tuesday through Saturday. New daily record high temperatures are possible, if not likely, on the warmest days. - There is a low chance of showers and thunderstorms this morning into the afternoon, mainly for northern and western counties, though there is poor agreement on any activity occurring. Additional showers/storms are possible Thursday and Thursday night, and again into the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 648 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2026 Minor updates were made to Sky grids and hourly temperatures in the very near term. Otherwise, there are no significant changes to the forecast. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 301 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2026 An active jet stream and storm track resides from northwestern Mexico northeast through the Midwest into the Great Lakes region through the period, with strong ridging through all layers of the atmosphere centered over the far southeastern CONUS and adjacent western Atlantic waters. Models depict an increase in moisture and instability impinging on northern and western counties early this morning and lasting into afternoon. This appears to be due to a passing disturbance crossing the southern Great Lakes region increasing the low-level jet across central and northeastern Kentucky, but the GFS does indicate a theta- e gradient extending from the Lower Tennessee Valley northeast into southwestern and central Ohio through 12z-15z this morning. While the vast majority of models keep eastern Kentucky dry, the GFS in particular does indicate a bit of isentropic lift along this boundary this morning which could result in shower activity forming upstream as early as this morning and then moving into the area later this morning into early afternoon. Will thus carry low PoPs across primarily western and northern areas through the afternoon today. It does bear mentioning that as of 07z this morning cloud tops are currently cooling where the GFS progs the weak isentropic lift to be currently. Models depict another theta-e gradient moving from central Tennessee north into central Kentucky this evening into the overnight. This will be the leading edge of a drier low-level air mass, and models suggest isentropic descent along this boundary, at least for the evening period, indicating subsidence. Will thus expect increased ridge-valley splits and clearer skies compared to this morning. For Wednesday, a passing disturbance well north and west of eastern Kentucky will push increasing warm advection and southwesterly flow across the area, with weak isentropic upglide again likely serving as a trigger for any showers and thunderstorms during the day Wednesday. However, these appear to stay northwest of our area, so will keep the forecast dry but with highest PoPs north of Interstate 64. Will thus expect another very warm day in the 80s across the forecast area, with a few 90-degree readings possible in the Big Sandy Basin where a southerly component to the low-level flow will promote some increased downslope warming. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 304 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2026 An amplified long wave pattern continues through early next week. A strong and persistent ridge will remain planted from central Mexico to Florida through early this weekend. This feature will then pivot more southeast by early next week, as an onslaught of eastern Pacific energy throughout this week finally dislodges it. Model agreement is decent early on, but then becomes less, with greater differences showing up by this weekend and into early next week. Eastern Kentucky will continue to find itself under the influence of the strong ridging to our southeast through Saturday. Well above normal temperatures, nearing record status at times, will remain in place. Highs each day will average in the mid to upper 80s, with a few low 90s possible, especially Wednesday and Friday/Saturday. Lows will average in the 50s and 60s each night. The next decent chance of rain will move in Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, as a well-defined short wave trough tracks east from the middle Mississippi Valley through the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. PoPs will peak in the 40-60% range. Unfortunately, QPF continues to look lean, with most locations likely seeing a tenth of an inch or less, although any thunderstorms could locally overachieve. A much deeper trough will move from the Plains to the eastern CONUS this weekend into early next week, with a surface cold front finally making it across the Commonwealth. QPF could be more substantial and beneficial with this system; however, will await further model trends before getting too optimistic. PoPs peak in the 50-60% range Saturday night, with some chances extending into Sunday, depending on the timing. This cold front will also bring an end to the heatwave, with highs retreating to mainly the 60s for both Sunday and Monday. Some frost potential may follow for Sunday night and perhaps Monday night in the valleys, depending on model trends. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) ISSUED AT 650 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2026 VFR conditions prevailed at TAF issuance and are likely to prevail through the period. Winds have already started to increase at the more exposed sites this morning as a low-level jet begins to exit the area. Southwest winds at 5 to 15 kts with gusts of 15 to 25 kts can be expected for most of the daylight hours today, with strongest winds west of I-75 and near/north of I-64. These winds will subside with the loss of daytime heating this evening. Otherwise, some isolated shower and/or thunderstorm activity is possible today but confidence in impacts and timing was too low to retain in the latest TAF issuance outside of a PROB30 mention. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...CMC SHORT TERM...CMC LONG TERM...JKL AVIATION...CMC  443 FXUS64 KLUB 141051 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 551 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 551 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - A dryline will bring chances for severe storms to areas off the Caprock Tuesday, with dry and windy conditions west of the escarpment. - Critical fire danger is expected Tuesday afternoon for western portions of the Caprock which have not seen beneficial rainfall over the past week. - Storm chances continue through early Friday, mainly off the Caprock, with drier and cooler weather expected for the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 428 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The previous thinking in the short-term discussion below remains on track, but trends in high-resolution guidance have shown an increasing potential for the development of supercells this evening (00Z/7 PM CDT and beyond) across portions of the Rolling Plains. As the dryline begins to translate westward after 00Z, intensification of the low-level jet will occur atop a corridor strengthening convergence along the retreating dryline. These mesoscale interactions would serve as the impetus for the initiation of surface-based supercells this evening, and if this comes to fruition, then storms may pose a risk for tornadoes across the Rolling Plains into the night. Some of the recent forecast soundings have indicated inflow-layer storm-relative winds intensifying to near 35 kt amidst dewpoints in the middle 60s this evening, the latter of which are already present in the Rolling Plains per recent WTM data. Retreating drylines at night in the presence of low-end windy conditions, such as the case this evening, are worth keeping an eye on when it comes to the potential for tornadoes. Sincavage && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Tuesday night) Issued at 1024 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Water vapor imagery late Monday evening highlights a belt of moist and unsettled southwest flow aloft in place over the West TX region, a pattern which will persist through the short term period as a compact mid/upper level low moves over the Four Corners. The dryline will continue to retreat westward through the rest of the overnight, and will position roughly from Denver City to Plainview to Memphis by sunrise. Overnight storms look unlikely, but we could still see an isolated cell or two develop over the southeastern Rolling Plains during the early morning hours as a modest low level jet focuses within a pocket of elevated instability. The dryline will mix eastward after daybreak Tuesday, especially on the Caprock where moisture will be quite shallow. Another warm and breezy to low end windy day will result west of the dryline as deep mixing taps into ~35kt flow at 700mb and up to 65kt at 500mb, which combined with the warm conditions will result in critical fire danger on the Caprock for areas which have not benefited from rainfall over the past week or so. Despite the strengthening flow aloft, the dryline is expected to slow its eastward progression once it moves east of the Caprock Escarpment given deeper moisture in place there, with dewpoints likely to remain above 50F over most of the Rolling Plains and SE TX Panhandle Tuesday afternoon. In general, it still appears the dryline circulation itself will be relatively weak Tuesday. However, convective temperatures will be easily within reach, and slightly better large scale forcing for ascent compared to Monday should result in a bit higher coverage of storms along and east of the dryline on Tuesday afternoon. Within the moist sector, forecast soundings depict MLCAPE values near or above 1500 J/kg, along with bulk shear magnitudes nearing 50kt. This will be sufficient for a few severe storms Tuesday afternoon over the Rolling Plains and SE TX Panhandle capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts, although this should be a relatively early show with strong flow aloft kicking storms to our east by early evening. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 1024 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Wednesday is expected to be a relatively quiet and warm day as the above-mentioned upper trough exits into the central plains states, with dry westerly surface flow pushing most appreciable near-surface moisture and associated storm chances to our east. That being said, a subset of guidance does keep the dryline barely over our eastern zones, so will maintain low storm chances over the eastern edge of the Rolling Plains through late Wednesday given uncertainty in the dryline positioning. Southwest flow aloft returns by Thursday as the next upper trough deepens over the Great Basin, which will bring enough near-surface moisture northward to result in mainly nocturnal storm chances Thursday night into early Friday courtesy of a strengthening low level jet. However, this period of southwest flow aloft and associated precipitation chances will be relatively short- lived given the progressive nature of the upper trough, which is progged to quickly shift eastward with the trough axis set to be over the Dakotas by early Saturday. This evolution will send a cold front southward through our area sometime in the late Friday to Saturday period, with good consensus among models indicating a drier and cooler period through at least the first half of the weekend. Return flow looks likely to reestablish Sunday and beyond with ensembles in decent agreement bringing low chances for showers and storms back to the region by early next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 551 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Winds will continue to steadily veer towards the southwest and become strong this afternoon, with frequent gusts to 30-35 kt expected at KCDS, KLBB, and KPVW. BLDU will be possible at KLBB and KPVW, but VSBYs will remain VFR. Severe-caliber TSTMs may affect KCDS this afternoon and evening, with the PROB30 group being maintained with this TAF cycle. Expect localized reductions to CIGs and VSBYs should TSTMs impact KCDS. Winds will gradually diminish overnight into Wednesday morning, with VFR otherwise. Sincavage && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1024 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Strong southwest winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 45 mph are expected across most of the Caprock on Tuesday afternoon. Combined with RH values in the 15 to 20 percent range, RFTI values of 3 to 5 appear likely over the southwestern TX Panhandle and western portions of the Caprock on Tuesday. Critical fire weather conditions are therefore expected in this area given the lack of recent beneficial rainfall compared to locations farther east. Therefore, a Red Flag Warning is in effect from noon to 8 PM Tuesday for the SW TX Panhandle and western Caprock. A Fire Danger Statement is in effect for areas farther east near the edge of the Caprock where slightly higher RH is expected in closer proximity to the dryline. Areas off the Caprock (especially the Rolling Plains) are expected to remain relatively humid east of the dryline, and fire weather concerns will be relatively low for these locations. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>025-027>030-033-034-039. Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>023-027>029. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...09  237 FXUS64 KBMX 141052 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 552 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 548 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026 - Fire danger will remain elevated through the week due to recent dryness, low relative humidity values, and increased winds at times. Outdoor burning is highly discouraged. - Near-record high temperatures are expected each day this week with no rain chances, causing drought conditions to worsen. && .DISCUSSION... (Tuesday through next Monday) Issued at 1033 PM CDT MON APR 13 2026 Water vapor imagery late this evening depicts a fairly active picture out to our north and west as a series of shortwaves progress across the Plains. Upper level ridging in place across the southeast is helping to deflect this activity away from the region. At the surface, high pressure remains anchored just off the east coast, leaving us with a southerly flow. Winds will be breezy at times over the next couple of days as the pressure gradient tightens in response to a low pressure system across the Northern Plains. By late Wednesday into Thursday, another H5 shortwave ejects across the Plains and begins to suppress our ridge to the south. This will open a brief window during the day Thursday for a low chance of rain across our NW areas. Confidence is low in this scenario as moisture recovery does not look too impressive. After all, "drought begets drought". Upper ridging quickly moves back into place, keeping us dry as we wrap up the work week. An upper trough lifts out of the Plains towards the Great Lakes Saturday into Sunday while pushing a cold front our way. This boundary looks to move into the area late Saturday night/early Sunday morning, eventually clearing the CWA by the evening hours. Latest guidance is hinting at PWATs ranging from 1.2-1.4" as this front passes through. Therefore, we will hang onto low to medium chances for showers and storms late Saturday night through Sunday afternoon. Rain chances with this system look a bit more promising despite our ongoing drought conditions as we will see more forcing available. Much drier air quickly filters back into the region as we close out the weekend and head into the work week. Our warming trend will continue through the work week. Highs each afternoon will generally climb into the mid 80s. Friday looks to be the warmest day as the entire region has roughly a 40-70% chance of exceeding 90F. It's likely that we see some high temp records broken as we close out the work week. To add confidence here, the ECMWF EFI/SOT guidance is strongly hinting at an anomalous heat event for this time of the year. These warm temps and dry conditions will likely lead to worsening drought conditions over the next week. 95/Castillo && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 548 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026 Satellite early this morning actually shows some low clouds and fog trying to creep up into central Alabama from the south, especially on the west side. We'll have to watch this development through the rest of the early morning, but I don't think there is enough time for these lower ceilings and visibilities to reach TCL or MGM before it starts to burn off after sunrise. If that remains the case, then that means VFR conditions will continue across the area through at least the next 20 or so hours. /61/ && .FIRE WEATHER... Elevated fire danger conditions will be a concern daily as we head through the week. MinRHs on Tuesday and Wednesday will drop into the 25-35% range. Winds will be a bit breezy with gusts from 10-15 MPH. Outside of a low chance of rain across our northwest areas, dry conditions will remain in place through the work week. A cold front is forecast to move through Saturday night, which will bring a low to medium chance for showers and storms. It will also lead to increased fire weather concerns late this weekend into early next week as much drier air moves back into the region. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1102 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026 Record High Temperatures: April 14: KBHM: 89/1981 KEET: 85/2017 KANB: 89/1981 KTCL: 88/2003 KMGM: 89/1972 April 15: KBHM: 88/1936 KEET: 85/2012 KANB: 89/1972 KTCL: 88/1972 KMGM: 91/1972 April 16: KBHM: 89/1977 KEET: 84/2013 KTCL: 90/1955 KMGM: 90/1925 April 17: KBHM: 90/1955 KEET: 86/2013 KTCL: 92/1955 KMGM: 90/1955 April 18: KBHM: 91/2006 KEET: 90/2006 KANB: 90/1955 KMGM: 91/2006 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 84 55 86 57 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 84 57 86 58 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 85 60 86 62 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 85 57 85 60 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 85 57 87 58 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 84 59 85 60 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 86 57 88 58 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 85 57 87 56 / 0 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...95/Castillo AVIATION.../61/  763 FXUS64 KOHX 141052 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 552 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 551 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Enhanced fire danger today and Wednesday due to dry conditions, low RH values and gusty winds. - Continued unseasonal warmth through the week. Record highs are possible today and Wednesday. - Medium to high rain/storm chances Thursday and again this weekend. No severe weather is expected at this time. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday Night) Issued at 1037 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Dry conditions return on Tuesday after today's light shower activity as the upper ridge influences strengthen. RH values will drop below 30% along the plateau during the afternoon along with 10-15 mph SSW winds gusting up to 25 mph. This will create increased fire danger. Any rain that may have fallen today was very light and not enough to put much of a dent in fuel moistures. Temperatures on Tuesday will be back into the 80s. Wednesday will be pretty similar with low RH values and gusty SSW winds keeping the enhanced fire conditions in place. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1037 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 The next chance of rain will arrive on Thursday as a shortwave disturbance traverses the area. We have medium to high chances of picking up some measurable rainfall with rainfall amounts of around of less than 0.5". Temperatures rebound behind Thursday's disturbance with highs back in the lower to upper 80s on Friday and Saturday. A cold front will move through on Saturday night bringing more medium to high rain chances. Behind the front, temperatures will be knocked back closer to normal with highs in the 60s and 70s on Sunday and Monday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 551 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions for this TAF cycle. Winds will carry the biggest impact with southwest gusts of 20-25 kts from 14-23Z today. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 87 63 87 65 / 0 0 0 0 Clarksville 88 65 87 66 / 0 0 0 10 Crossville 82 58 83 60 / 0 0 0 0 Columbia 87 62 85 64 / 0 0 0 0 Cookeville 82 60 83 63 / 0 0 0 0 Jamestown 83 59 83 60 / 0 0 0 0 Lawrenceburg 84 61 84 63 / 0 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 87 62 86 64 / 0 0 0 0 Waverly 87 66 86 67 / 0 0 0 10 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Reagan LONG TERM....Reagan AVIATION.....Unger  013 FXUS63 KGRR 141053 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 653 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe thunderstorms overnight into early Tuesday Morning - Severe Thunderstorms possible late Tuesday into early Wednesday - Flood Potential remains elevated through the week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 259 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Severe thunderstorms overnight into early Tuesday Morning A boundary continues to move through northern lower Michigan overnight through early this morning. Severe storms with large hail have already moved along and north of the US 10 corridor. While there remains some CIN, upwards of -250 J/kg south of that corridor, there is just enough mixed layer CAPE to allow for the strong 0-3KM shear and LLJ to continue storm generation. Latest CAMS, especially the HRRR, have the convection from across Wisconsin swinging through the region This morning with strong to severe storms moving through central Lower Michigan through sunrise. Strongest storms should be north of I 96 with the northern boundary north of US 10. DCAPE with frontal passage will be 600 J/kg at best. However, mid level lapse rates are trending around 7 C/km and the shear vector remains west to east, which could allow stronger winds to mix to the surface around sunrise. So while damaging winds are possible, large hail remains our biggest concern. The line is expected to begin to move into the region around 09, along with the mid level low and corresponding wave. That wave along with the LLJ will move into southern Quebec and to the east by 12Z which will end this morning's threat of severe weather. - Severe Thunderstorms possible late Tuesday into early Wednesday Any tertiary showers this morning should linger to the south and will be in more stable air and not expected to be strong or severe. Latest SPC Day 1 Outlook for later Today into Wednesday continues to have almost all of lower Michigan in a slight risk. The enhanced risk has shifted to cover most of southern Wisconsin. The temperature of Lake Michigan shouldn't impede storms as it should provide a cold pool for them to move over. The persistent southwesterly flow should correspond with warm air advection ahead of the incoming surface low. That should allow the atmosphere to recover by late this afternoon ahead of this afternoon and evening's system. Daytime heating of 70s to low 80s, especially south of I 96 should provide MLCAPE of 1 to 2K J/kg. The wind profiles favor supercell formation. Latest CAMS continue to have storms forming after 22Z and continuing through at least the first half of the overnight period as the strong 850mb jet of upwards of 45 kts should continue to fuel storm generation into early Wednesday. Based on those factors, there remains a good chance for strong to severe storms late Tuesday afternoon with damaging winds and large hail the main threats. However, with low LCL's and strong shear, an isolated tornado is possible. - Flood Potential remains elevated through the week A flood watch will remain into Wednesday. Heavy downpours from the latest storms has QPE of around 2.0 inches of rainfall with QPF to FFG of upwards of 150 percent. The mid level flow has kept the storms to train through the US 10 corridor and that pattern should continue until the above mentioned boundary moves through after 12Z. The heavy downpour threat will shift to south of the I 96 corridor today, however QPF through Thursday remains a widespread 2 to 3 inches. So urban, stream and flash flooding remains a concern. For information on the increasing flood threat, see the Hydrology section below. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 645 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Showers continue to move to the east with MVFR lingering at JXN. Any restrictions should lift this morning. We will see showers and storms redevelop then toward 23-01z as the next wave of low pressure moves through. We have gone with predominate showers/storms after 23-01z at all sites with LIFR conditions expected. There should be several periods of showers and storms that could linger into the overnight hours. Due to the confidence in timing have put some in PROB30s accordingly with improvements overnight, mainly after 10Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 302 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Special Marine warnings for thunderstorms will continue this morning with hazardous winds and waves for small craft are expected this morning. Strong to severe storms are expected through sunrise. Thunderstorms, possibly severe thunderstorms with hail and wind, are possible over Lake Michigan this evening/tonight and Tuesday evening/night. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 302 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .Update... Another 2 to 3 inches has fallen upstream and should make its way to the Croton gauge later today. ..Previous... The further north you go in the Lower Peninsula, the more significant the flooding situation becomes. Around an inch of rain fell across much of the area along and north of the Muskegon River watershed over the weekend, with a much heavier swath of 2-4 inches across the Manistee River watershed and the headwaters portions of the Muskegon basin. Coming on the heels of one of the wettest springs on record so far, and in the midst of a significantly active (and wet) ongoing weather pattern, the water that's already on the ground is going to produce renewed flooding on the Muskegon River (and many others rivers further north as well). With another 2-3" of rain over the next few days in the Muskegon, we're now expecting the most significant flood on the Muskegon River since the flood of 2018. If the next few days of rains overperform (which is entirely possible), the forecasted crests will go even higher. If you live near the Muskegon river, now is the time to prepare for significant flooding. Meanwhile, further south, conditions in the Grand River basin are in slightly better shape, although water is still high from all of the recent rains. We've finally dropped below stage at all locations in the basin, but that trend will soon reverse as water levels start to climb again throughout the week. With an additional 2-3" of rain expected in this area as well, it's beginning to look like the region will generally repeat the flood levels experienced last week. In addition to the river flooding, some of the thunderstorms we're expecting over the next few days could be very slow moving over the same areas repeatedly. If this happens, some localized rain totals of 4+ inches are possible in the next few days. If this happens over one of the urban areas, significant fast- developing urban flooding is possible. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for MIZ037>040-043>046- 050>052. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ844>849. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ844>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...Ceru AVIATION...NJJ/Ceru MARINE...CAS HYDROLOGY...AMD  093 FXUS63 KARX 141055 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 555 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe storms possible today, primarily for the southeastern half of the forecast area with large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rain causing flooding as the primary concerns. Secondary concern of isolated tornadoes. - Storm chances continue through Tuesday night and Wednesday, eventually ceasing temporarily through Thursday. Additional strong to severe storm chances return Friday afternoon/evening/night. && .UPDATE... Issued at 425 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 With visibilities dropping to 1/2 to 1/4 of a mile in the wake of our rainfall yesterday, have issued a short dense fog advisory to cover the morning commute window. Stratus building southward from west-central WI and the Twin Cities area, could result in the fog lifting from north south and will adjust the advisory footprint as needed over the next few hours. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1243 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Strong to Severe Storm Chances Today: As main line of storms progresses east-southeast of the local forecast area early this morning, return flow is quickly reinvigorating across central Iowa on early morning observations. The 60 degree isodrosotherm roughly collocated with 1" PWATs expected to return through most of the forecast area today aided by Rocky Mountain Low cyclogenesis progressing slightly northeast. Similar to Monday, the initial warm frontal passage increases low precipitation potential through the late morning/early afternoon before additional forcing and instability through the late afternoon and evening further increases local storm threat. Current confidence for northern extent is farther south than Monday, bifurcating the southeastern half of the forecast area with 1000+ J/kg (max 3000 J/kg) of SBCAPE concurrent with little to no SBCIN. The low loses conformity as it progresses northeast, becoming a meager low level trough bifurcating the forecast area. Resultant straight line hodographs exhibit unidirectional shear values capable of splitting supercells causing large hail and damaging winds primarily with an isolated tornado risk. Storm Chances Tonight Through Wednesday Night: High resolution models disagree on subsequent storm chances with most frequent storm solution seen in most recent HRRR (14.00Z) perpetuating storm chances Tuesday night, Wednesday morning, Wednesday afternoon, and Wednesday evening as the low level jet converges enhanced moisture along the locally lingering boundary until cyclogenesis and a low level trough passes overnight Wednesday into Thursday. While this is the most frequent outlier solution, most other high resolution models suggest some semblance of frequent storms through Wednesday evening. Similar to Today, large hail and damaging winds will be the main concern with isolated tornadoes possible Wednesday afternoon/evening given diurnal influence permitting convection potentially becoming surface based where storms set up. Storm Chances Return Friday: A reprieve in storm and precipitation chances on Thursday ceases Friday as another Rocky Mountain low enhances meridional low level moisture transport, returning strong to severe storm potential for some of the Upper Midwest. While the longer forecast hour limits overall confidence, enhanced cyclogenesis permits increased tapping into the anomalous moisture and accompanying instability, keeping precipitation probabilities high (70%+). && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 550 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 IFR to LIFR stratus and fog along and north of an MCW to ISW line slowly burn off through the daytime hours with a SCT/BKN MVFR CU deck to the south of this line. Showers and storms are expected in this southern corridor as well this afternoon, which could bring large hail and IFR restrictions at times. The clouds look to clear out in the evening with IFR/LIFR fog likely to form overnight in most locales. Winds will generally be light and variable at 10 kts or less. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1226 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Anomalous moisture of the last couple days has resulted in flash flooding where strongest storms result in heavy rainfall. Additional river rises have prompted opening of river gates given expected additional daily precipitation. Highest observations from Monday's storms seen in a band from southeast Minnesota through western and central Wisconsin of 2"+. Therefore, primary area of concern for subsequent flooding would be in these areas should storms progresses as far north Tuesday. Confidence in rainfall reaching farther north into central Wisconsin Wednesday and Friday keeps heightened awareness for flooding concerns. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for WIZ029- 032>034. MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MNZ079- 086>088-094-095. IA...None. && $$ UPDATE...Skow DISCUSSION...JAR AVIATION...Skow HYDROLOGY...JAR  377 FXUS63 KDLH 141058 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 558 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cloudy today as clouds emanate from Lake Superior, foggy conditions possible closer to the Lake. - Light rain with a few rumbles of thunder across northern MN today - Better chances for severe weather to return to the Northland on Friday - Snow possible late Friday and into Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 247 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Current Conditions/Today: Thunderstorm activity has pushed well off to our southeast this morning with some scattered rain showers still appearing on radar across the Northland. Later this morning an upper level trough will eject out the Red River Valley and produce some rain showers across northern MN. There is some very weak MUCAPE in the morning that could lead to a few rumbles of thunder but overall not expecting much in way of impactful rain or storms. Look for this area of showers to moves west to east exiting the Arrowhead in the afternoon. Today will also see very cloudy conditions as easterly winds across the region will help spread the influence of Lake Superior through the Northland. Satellite imagery as of 3AM shows this expansive cloud has already engulfed NW WI and is quickly heading towards the Iron Range and the Brainerd Lake Region. Model guidance is in good agreement with keeping this blanket expanding farther east through the day. Foggy conditions will also be prevalent, especially the closer you get to Lake Superior. With this in mind we have dropped high temperatures 2-5F across the region from what the previous forecast package had. Wednesday/Thursday: We get a small reprieve in the active weather pattern for Wednesday and Thursday as the Northland finds itself in between low pressure systems with dry air aloft keeping precipitation at bay. The only exception to this may be our far southeast counties. The 00Z suite of deterministic guidance has trended farther southeast with the system but a quick glance at both the AIGFS and EC-AIFS shows northwest WI still getting clipped as the system tracks towards Lake Michigan. For now, we will keep a mention of low end PoPs of 30-40%. With the surface boundary staying well off to our south some elevated convection would be the primary concern with small hail being the main hazard if any storms do manage to form. The other low pressure to the northwest looks to stay that way with good model consensus propagating it into Ontario. Thursday will be quiet with a stalled out boundary draped across northern MN and a strong southerly push of winds through the day. Highs will climb into the 60s and 70s with the traditional cooler by the Lake type of day. Friday into the Weekend: Friday is still shaping up to be our next active and impactful weather day. An upper level trough digs into the four corners region with an elongated system developing across the Upper Midwest and down into the Central Plains. The northern most low pressure looks to make its way into northern MN with a cold front dropping south across the Brainerd Lakes. Ahead of this boundary will be a broad warm sector that will see increased dewpoints surging into the region. We will also likely see a gulf connection boosting our PWATs and adding fuel to the atmosphere for storms to develop. Current guidance would suggest moderate instability with adequate bulk shear for severe storms to develop. Details will have to be refined as we get closer but at this time it looks like all hazards will be possible ahead of the cold front. As Friday's system departs we will see a plunge of cold air crashing in from the northwest Friday night and lingering into Saturday. Wrap around moisture will fall as snow with some light accumulations overnight possible. However, given how warm we have been our ground temperatures will likely make quick work of this snow. There is a signal for increased rates late Saturday morning into the afternoon as the upper level trough pivots over the region providing a boost to synoptic forcing. The current NBM guidance wants to have a couple of inches of accumulation for Saturday, but not sure that seems reasonable even with the boost in forcing. High temperatures are still expected to get above freezing and the high sun angle for mid April should also work against these totals. SLRs are currently 15- 16:1 which seems way too high for Saturday afternoon, 10:1 max would probably be generous. Further adjustments will likely be needed. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 558 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Widespread LIFR ceilings are expected to be a mainstay through the forecast period. Fog will be possible this morning with some erosion possible this afternoon. However, fog will return later this evening. Additionally, scattered rain showers with a few thunderstorms will be possible across northern MN beginning later this morning. This activity will track east through the forecast period and exit the Arrowhead in the afternoon hours. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 247 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The gustiest northeast winds across Lake Superior have passed with a few gusts around 20 kts still being observed across the Lake. Small Craft Advisories have been canceled. There is an expansive cloud deck emanating from Lake Superior that is expected to remain in place through today and into tomorrow. This cloud deck may sink lower to the Lake leading to dense fog, however, webcams have not shown this development yet and model guidance is split on whether this will come to fruition. A marine dense fog advisory may be needed at later this morning. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 247 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Low fire weather concerns today and tomorrow as Min RHs largely stay above 40%. A surge of southerly winds on Thursday could lead to some drier and windier conditions. Not expecting winds or RHs to approach Red Flag Criteria. Widespread active weather returns Friday with severe weather possible followed by snow potential late Friday through Saturday. Minimal snow accumulations expected. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 535 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Recent snowmelt combined with pockets of moderate to heavy rain have led to rising and high rivers across the Northland. Pretty much every river gauge one can look at across NE MN and NW WI has seen some rise. Across the Iron Range, Brainerd Lakes, I-35 corridor, and into NW WI (outside of the South Shore), rises have been fairly controlled and minor. On the North Shore, antecedent colder snowpack and a tempered return to warmer spring temperatures has meant the melt is still getting going. Most observed river level trends still on the up swing here. The Beaver River near Beaver Bay is just starting to flirt with action stage this morning, with water expected to be just coming out of banks at this stage with some possible wet spots along the Superior Hiking Trail. Other North Shore streams are following that lead with high flows expected for most waterways in Lake and Cook County through this week as daily temperatures above freezing keep the melt going. On the South Shore, recent notable rises across the Bad River watershed have started to turn over. On the Bad, Tyler Forks, and Potato Rivers, a crest was observed overnight with downward trends this morning. As all these rivers are feeding from a similar snowpack this suggests that the peak of snowmelt rates has come and gone. Some snow remains which may result in an overall downward trend in river stage but with an embedded diurnal rise as snowmelt is enhanced in the afternoon. Because the near term threat of widespread rain-on-snow flooding appears to be past for the time being, the Flood Watch will be allowed to expire this morning, with lingering Flood Warnings for the Tyler Forks and Montreal Rivers. While some passing showers are possible through the week, it's not until Friday-Saturday that a better chance for thunderstorms and widespread rain return to the area. This should allow for remaining snowmelt to keep working through area waterways. By the time Friday rolls around, it seems most plausible that the only significant snowpack remaining would probably be along the North Shore with some pockets of snow lingering in the higher terrain of Bayfield, Ashland, and Iron Counties. Flooding concerns could be two-fold on Friday: rain-on-snow along the North Shore adding onto persisting high flows, and pluvial flash flooding in areas where conditions are already saturated (mostly NW WI). && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for WIZ002>004. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Britt AVIATION...Britt MARINE...Britt FIRE WEATHER...Britt HYDROLOGY...Levens  869 FXUS63 KLMK 141058 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 658 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Well-above normal temperatures continue throughout the upcoming week. A few temperature records may be in jeopardy today, tomorrow, and Friday. * The next chance for widespread rainfall is expected Thursday. Most likely rainfall amounts range from 0.2-0.5" across the area. The chance for strong storms is relatively low, but cannot be ruled out at this time. * A stronger cold front will bring a chance for showers and storms again on Saturday. Another low-end threat for strong storms exists with this system. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 351 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Today and Tonight... This morning, quiet and mild conditions are present across the Ohio Valley as high clouds from upstream convection pass over the region. There is a fairly notable west-to-east gradient in temperatures and dewpoints this morning as drier low-level air has filtered in over the Cumberland Plateau into east/east central KY this morning. Expect this gradient to hold through mid-morning before daytime heating and moisture advection helps to reduce the temperature and moisture gradient across the region. Today, the persistent large-scale pattern of southeast US upper ridging and western US troughing is expected to continue, with deep SW flow continuing from the Ohio Valley and points NW. Another breezy and warm day is expected today, with more sunshine allowing temperatures to warm 4-8 degrees above persistence, with highs expected in the mid 80s for most of the area. While we have a 35-45 kt 850mb jet over the region this morning, this should weaken later today, though we still expect SW winds of 10-15 mph and wind gusts of 20-25 mph across the area. For the majority of the area, there is a 90+% chance of dry weather today. However, HREF reflectivity paintballs do show a few showers trying to develop across the Bluegrass later this morning. Additionally, upstream convection over central IL/IN may approach our northern and northeast zones, mainly northeast of a line from Salem, IN to Paris, KY. There is only a 10- 20% chance of a storm in these areas, but if upstream convection was able to provide enough forcing for convective initiation, 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and 30 kt of bulk shear could support a conditional strong storm with gusty winds and hail. Dry weather should continue across the area tonight, with the axis of showers and storms expected to remain well northwest of the region. Lows will be mild again Wednesday morning in the 60s in most locations. Wednesday and Wednesday Night... Another warm and breezy day is expected on Wednesday with only small changes expected to the overall pattern. A shortwave disturbance over the Rockies today will eject into the Plains by Wednesday afternoon, with more waves of showers and storms expected from the Plains into the Great Lakes. Some erosion of the upper level ridge will begin tomorrow, which could allow successive waves of convection to get closer to our southern IN counties. There is a 20- 30% chance for precipitation along and north of the river Wednesday; however, a lot of the chance that does exist is dependent on upstream convection, so confidence is low. Otherwise, temperatures should once again rise into the 80s across the area tomorrow. If mid- and high-level clouds are less prevalent than expected, upper 80s would be possible, especially across southern/southeastern KY. Highs should be within 1-3 degrees of daily records. Wednesday night into Thursday morning, additional erosion of the upper ridge should allow showers and storms to approach the area from the west. Current most-likely timing has precipitation arriving west of I-65 around sunrise Thursday, so Wednesday night should remain dry. Near-persistence forecast on low temps is expected, with most areas falling into the 60s Thursday morning. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 351 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Thursday - Friday Night... Thursday continues to look like the next good chance for rain across the area as the above-mentioned upper-level shortwave slides across the region. Showers and a few embedded thunderstorms should move from west to east across southern IN and central KY during the day, with the relatively diffuse forcing likely resulting in multiple waves of precipitation. Machine learning severe convection guidance shows a modest signal (5-15% chance) for strong storms Thursday, and model soundings suggest that ample cloud cover and deep saturation may limit instability. Still, a few strong storms can't be ruled out, with gusty winds and small hail being the main hazards. Ensemble mean rain amounts with Thursday's chance range from a few tenths across Lake Cumberland and the I-75 corridor to around 0.50" in southwest IN/western KY, so it's unlikely that we'll be able to make much of a dent in the drought across south central KY. Temperatures on Thursday should be less warm given the extra clouds and precipitation, with highs generally ranging from 75-80. Shower/storm chances are expected to diminish from west to east Thursday night as upper ridging builds back into the region from the southwest Friday morning. Warmer temperatures and mostly dry weather should return on Friday, with highs again forecast in the low-to-mid 80s. A band of increasing SW flow will nose into the mid-Mississippi Valley Friday afternoon and evening, with this warm advection wing potentially initiating showers and storms Friday night into Saturday morning. At this time, there is a 20-30% chance for showers/storms west of I-65 Friday night, and some strong upstream convection could spill into the area; however, it is still more likely that we remain dry into early Saturday morning. Saturday into Early Next Week... During the day on Saturday, an amplifying upper trough over the Plains will push across the Mississippi Valley, bringing a cold front into the region sometime between Saturday afternoon and early Sunday morning. Saturday should be our last very warm day in this stretch, with highs expected in the upper 70s and low-to-mid 80s. With the sfc low pressure center ejecting well to the north into the Great Lakes, our chance for showers and storms Saturday should come along and just ahead of the cold front, so FROPA timing will be key to shower/storm chances Saturday into Saturday night. Over the past few model runs, a slightly faster trend has been noted in this system, with the highest precipitation chances (60-70%) now occurring in the afternoon hours. A downward trend in PoPs is now featured after sunset Saturday, with winds swinging around from the SW to the W/NW with cold FROPA. The severe setup on Saturday is somewhat similar to Thursday in that instability will be less impressive than areas upstream on Friday due to deep saturation and cloud cover, although forcing along the well-defined cold front will be stronger. Machine learning guidance is relatively similar, showing a 5-15% chance for strong storms across the area. Would also expect similar threats as Thursday, with gusty winds and small hail possible in any stronger storms. Behind the cold front, robust cold advection should send temperatures back to near/slightly-below seasonable levels for Sunday into early next week. Upper troughing is expected to linger across the east coast of the US through early next week, leaving the Ohio Valley under a NW flow pattern. This should bring cool/seasonable temperatures and dry weather for the period Sunday through next Tuesday. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 657 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the current forecast period. The main impact today should be gusty SW winds with sustained winds of 12-17 kt and gusts of 20-26 kt expected mainly between 14-22Z. Also expect a stratocu layer to develop later this morning, with CIGs generally around 4-6k ft. There is still a low (10%) chance for TSRA at HNB/SDF/LEX this afternoon, but we will keep this out of the forecast due to low confidence. Tonight, winds should become less gusty as the nighttime inversion sets up. There is another chance for LLWS overnight into Wednesday morning; however, it appears marginal enough to leave out of the forecast at this time. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CSG LONG TERM...CSG AVIATION...CSG  733 FXUS61 KALY 141059 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 659 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Some patchy fog was added to the Upper Hudson River Valley, Lake George Region and southern Adirondacks this morning. The Storm Prediction Center upgraded eastern NY and western New England to a Slight Risk (Level 2 out of 5) for the potential of severe thunderstorms today into tonight. Minor changes to timing of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into the early evening with the pre-frontal trough and low pressure system passing to the north over northern NY/New England for the threat of strong to severe thunderstorms. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Scattered strong to potentially severe thunderstorms this afternoon into the early evening with damaging wind gusts the main threat to trees, power poles and property. 2. Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday south of the Capital Region. 3. The threat for widespread impactful weather is low from Thu through the end of the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... The mid and upper level flow is nearly zonal over the Northeast this morning with a frontal boundary over upstate NY and New England. The air mass is more humid today and after morning patchy fog burns off, temps should warm quickly from the I-90 corridor south. The boundary drifts back north in the morning. A pre-frontal sfc trough in the warm sector will focus a round of showers and thunderstorms today, some of which could be strong to severe. The latest HREF guidance indicates mean SBCAPEs of 500-1000 J/kg with pockets in excess of 1000 J/kg. The deep layer shear in the 0-6 km layer is 35-45 KT based on the HREF. The winds are strong in the H700-500 layer at about 50 KT. The latest CAM guidance is variable on the timing of initially some discrete cells forming in the late morning/early pm over central NY and west of the Hudson River Valley and then quickly forming into a line impacting most of eastern NY and western New England in the mid-late pm/early evening. The last several runs of the 3-km HRRR are faster with the impact period from about 1-6 pm, whereas the 3-km NAM is slower in the 3 to 7 pm time frame. Some of the model soundings from the 3-km HRRR indicate MLCAPE reaching about 1000 J/kg with DCAPE in the 500-800 J/kg. Both the 3-km HRRR and NAMnest indicated steep low-level lapse rates below 850 hPa from the Capital Region south. The updrafts may extend tall enough and tap into those strong winds in the H700-500 layer for a robust damaging wind potential. SPC upgraded the entire area to a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) with 15% probabilities for damaging winds 50 KT or greater. Bowing segments will be possible with the line. There is some uncertainty if the line will impact locations in our southeast extreme (mid Hudson Valley/NW CT). We tried to take a blended approach based on the NBM and collab with neighbors for the main impact period to be 2 to 8 pm (18Z to 00Z). With the fast flow this could move through quicker though. The damaging winds could knock down trees, break large tree branches, down power poles and lines, and yield some property. Also, CG lightning will be an issue with the thunderstorms. Humidity levels will be moderate with dewpoints in the 50s to lower 60s. Temps will depend on sky cover, but 70s to lower 80s will be possible. The lower 80s will be from Albany south to the I-84 corridor into NW CT. 60s will be common over the southern Greens and the southern Adirondacks. The showers and thunderstorms decrease early tonight with some patchy fog forming especially along and north of the Mohawk River Valley. Lows will be very mild in the 50s to lower 60s. KEY MESSAGE 2... Another wave quickly approaches from the central and eastern Great Lakes Region Wed morning. The short-wave will move along the rim of the ridge centered over the Southeast and Florida. Showers and some isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms impact locations from I-90 northward in the late morning/early pm. One area that may be vulnerable for isolated to widely scattered strong thunderstorms will be near the I-84 corridor (southeast Catskills, mid Hudson Valley and NW CT). Mid-level lapse rates steepen, and the deep shear is still 40 KT with MLCAPEs around 1000 J/kg. A damaging wind and large hail threat is possible and SPC continues most of the area in a Marginal (Level 1 out 5) Risk for severe thunderstorms. Highs 80 to 85F will be common in this area with 60s and 70s further north. The latest 3-km NAMnest indicates some stronger cells may form along and south of the Capital Region with the 00Z 3-km HRRR with less of a threat. KEY MESSAGE 3... Above normal temps conclude the work week and enter the weekend. However, a cold frontal passage on Sunday may keep temps closer to normal and then next week could start with cooler than normal based on the WPC Days 4 to 7 forecast inserted. Backing up, ridging may build in enough for the warmest temps of the week (mid 70s to lower 80s outside the northern mtns) on Thu with NBM probs (40-90%) supporting this. Yet another disturbance moving along the stalled boundary over northern NY and New England will bring scattered to numerous showers with some thunderstorms for Thu with the highest probabilities for precipitation 50-70% from I-90 north with lesser of a threat south. A stronger mid and upper level trough along with the cold front will keep chances of showers on Friday before a brief reprieve of drier weather to open the weekend. The probability of impactful weather Thu through the weekend is low due to the lower severe weather threat and the rainfall being beneficial with no hydro impacts anticipated at this time. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 12z Wednesday...Early fog and MVFR cigs at GFL, PSF and POU will trend back to VFR by 12 - 15 UTC. Then, VFR conditions prevail thereafter through early this afternoon before a potential line of showers and thunderstorms track from northwest to southeast between 19 and 00 UTC. Timing has shifted slightly later compared to our 06 UTC TAF issuance. During any thunderstorm, a brief period of strong, gusty winds are possible along with IFR vis from a period of steady rain. Higher confidence for this at GFL, ALB and PSF and lower at POU as showers/storms may not arrive until early evening. Most of the rain/storms will dissipate by early evening with mid-level clouds lingering overnight. MVFR cigs look to develop at ALB, GFL, and PSF late tonight as low-level moisture remains in place and a boundary settles overhead. Outlook... Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures(Year Set): Today April 14: Albany: 89(2023) Glens Falls: 84(2023) Poughkeepsie: 91(2023) Wednesday April 15: Albany: 86(2003) Glens Falls: 84(2003) Poughkeepsie: 84(2003) Thursday April 16: Albany: 91(2012) Glens Falls: 89(2002) Poughkeepsie: 91(2012) && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...15 AVIATION...31 CLIMATE...07