115 FXUS64 KMEG 141101 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 601 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 600 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Dry and warm conditions will return Tuesday, followed by a gradual warming trend through late week. By Friday, near record high temperatures are expected. - A passing upper level disturbance and weak surface cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms on Thursday, mainly to areas along and north of Interstate 40. - Following a hot and dry day on Friday, rain chances will return late Saturday, associated with the passage of a cold front. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 1058 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Dry conditions are anticipated Tuesday and Wednesday as upper level ridging continues to build into the Mid-South. Above normal temperatures will be in place both days as highs soar into the low and mid 80s. For context, our normal high temperatures for the middle of April are the low 70s. Our next shot at rainfall arrives Thursday as a shortwave moves over the upper Mississippi Valley. Previous forecasts had showers and thunderstorms arriving in the Mid-South late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. However, the latest guidance is featuring a later arrival time with convective activity moving into the area just after sunrise Thursday. A severe storm or two cannot be ruled out at this time, but overall confidence is low. Should storm timing continue to push later into the day, a greater severe weather threat will materialize. The LREF continues to place a 50-80% chance of overlapping severe parameters by 1PM. Damaging wind and large hail would be the primary concerns if storms linger into the afternoon hours. Negligible rainfall totals will fall through the evening hours, resulting in little to no change in the current drought conditions. Friday will likely be the hottest day of the year, thus far, as efficient upper level ridging builds into the Mid-South. The latest NBM suggests a 40-50% chance of temperatures east of the Mississippi River reaching 90 degrees. Should this occur, it will beat our average first 90 degree day by over a month. Elsewhere on Friday, a large upper level trough will form over the Rockies and deepen as it ejects east. This system will approach the Mid- South on Saturday, once again increasing rain chances. Currently, the Storm Prediction Center does not have the Mid-South outlooked for severe storms Saturday. However, a few machine learning models and ensemble suites are beginning to pick up on the potential for storms Saturday afternoon ahead of a cold front. Given anomalously warm temperatures and strong upper level forcing, severe storms will not be out of the question. It remains too early to tell specifics. A brief reprieve from above-average temperatures will arrive on Sunday as the aforementioned front exits the Mid-South. Temperatures Sunday and Monday will be in the 60s and 70s. Long- term forecasts suggest another warming trend by the middle of next week, so get out and enjoy the cooler temperatures while they last. ANS && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 600 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 High confidence (>90% chance) for VFR conditions as upper-level ridging persists through the period. A tight pressure gradient will result in elevated SSW winds. Winds will increase to 14-20 kts with gusts approaching 23-30 kts at MEM, MKL, and JBR this morning, and then decrease to 8-10 kts by this evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1058 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Fire weather concerns will be minimal throughout the week as MinRH remains above 30 percent. Wetting rain chances exist on Thursday for areas along and north of I-40. Additional rains are anticipated Saturday. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS AVIATION...SJM  726 FXUS66 KHNX 141101 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 401 AM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .UPDATE... && && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A gradual warming and drying trend expected this week. 2. Another system brings stronger winds to the region by Thursday. 3. Low confidence for another storm system to move through the region by next Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Calm weather is expected to set in as the trough that caused the thunderstorms from the last few days moves further to the east, with strong winds expected along the Mojave Slopes through the early morning. By tomorrow, it will have mostly exited the region and warmer temperatures and drier conditions are expected for our CWA through Thursday. That day will see another trough move through Nevada and lead to strong winds for the Sierra Nevada crest and into the Mojave Desert Slopes as it brushes our area. Slight cooling of temperatures are also expected from this trough, though due to the brief period of time this system will interact with the air aloft, the warming trend is expected to start back up by Friday as ridging takes over from the trough. Looking to next week, a third trough may move through the region by next Monday, potentially more head on than the previous system, though current ensemble model are in low agreement as to where the trough is likely to come in, as well as how deep it might be. If this trough were to make a more direct pass through Central California, most model members have precipitation mainly in the mountains and foothills, with the Valley and Desert fairly dry. Confidence is expected to increase over the next few days, though as of current runs, confidence remains low for additional precipitation for the region next week. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions expected across the area for the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ public...EW aviation....JPK weather.gov/hanford  691 FXUS63 KLSX 141101 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 601 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and humid conditions continue through most of this week. The best chances for thunderstorms, some potentially severe, are tonight and Wednesday. - A strong cold front brings seasonably cool temperatures for the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Wednesday Afternoon) Issued at 256 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The overall weather pattern across the US consists of surface high pressure near the southeast US coastline with a rich plume of Gulf moisture (60+ dewpoints) circulating around this high from central Texas northeast to the Chicago area. The western edge of this moisture plume is bounded by a dryline, oscillating back and forth each day with daytime heating and the passage of shortwave troughs aloft. The northern extent is bounded by a quasi-stationary front/trough stretching from Nebraska to Michigan. Looking aloft, upper level ridging is centered over the Gulf with a trough over the Southwest US moving from around Las Vegas to the Four Corners during the day today. Between the Gulf ridge and the Southwest US trough exists a southwesterly jet with embedded shortwave troughs. The rich low level moisture on the edge of the upper level ridge has led to an axis of instability within which multiple patches of thunderstorms will continue to generate over the coming days. Seasonably strong mid level flow combines with the instability to produce conditions favorable for supercell thunderstorms and occasional convective clusters where thunderstorms form. Zooming in on our forecast area, although instability maximizes this afternoon with daytime heating (temperatures nearing 90!), the influence of the ridge aloft is expected to maintain capping through much of the day, inhibiting convective development. We'll be in between disturbances to our northeast and southwest leading to a local minimum in convective potential. The primary focus for development will be more toward the periphery of the ridge and along the surface boundaries: the warm/stationary front to the north and the dryline to the west. High resolution guidance is in good agreement that convection will be suppressed locally during the day today. That said, if we are able to get any local areas of lift along a local convergence zone or in an area of locally maximized low level moisture (reducing capping), then a storm or two could develop. The environment is primed for supercell thunderstorms if this occurs, with large hail and damaging winds the main threats. The better chance for thunderstorms locally will be from leftover storms which formed to our west tracking into our area during the late evening or overnight hours. While wind shear will still be sufficient for organized thunderstorms, surface based instability will be on a downward diurnal trend by the time any such activity reaches our area, limiting the severe weather potential. On Wednesday the southwest trough opens up and lifts northeast through the Plains. This leads to greater mid level lift supporting more widespread showers and thunderstorms across the instability axis including through our region. While we continue to see moderate to strong mid level flow sufficient for storm organization, more widespread cloud cover is expected to limit the development of surface based instability to just patches of stronger instability where cloud cover is less extensive. As a result, our confidence in the timing and location of the severe weather threat on Wednesday is lower, though the threat is likely to favor the afternoon hours when the potential for surface based instability is greatest during the heat of the day. We may not have greater clarity on these points until Wednesday morning when the effects of morning clouds and showers can be a bit better known. Kimble && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night through Monday) Issued at 256 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The passage of the trough Wednesday into Wednesday night will also shove the front southeastward, pulling in some slightly drier air and shifting the instability axis southeastward. Showers and storms may still be ongoing Thursday morning, with the focus for convective activity shifting toward the Ohio Valley with time. Most of our area sees gradually clearing skies with continued warm temperatures near 80 degrees. While ridging briefly builds back in behind Wednesday's departing trough, a stronger trough will be moving out of the Pacific Northwest and into the Plains on Friday. We'll see moisture return northward ahead of this approaching trough setting up the potential for another round of severe thunderstorms. Where that severe weather threat materializes depends on the speed of the front. At the moment, timing of the front favors a greater severe thunderstorm threat to our west as the front moves through our area mostly during the overnight Friday night into the first half of the day on Saturday. However, if the front speeds up a bit, this could shift the threat more into our area. Alternatively, if it slows down a bit, then another threat could develop during peak heating on Saturday. At this stage it's too soon to have much confidence in a severe weather threat locally given the current expected frontal timing, but it's a time period to watch for any changes that could shift the threat into our area. The air mass behind this front is MUCH cooler than what we've been dealing with as of late. This air mass has origins in the Arctic which is still cold this time of year. There remains some uncertainty in how cold it will be by the time it reaches our area, but there is strong confidence that we'll see at least one day of below normal temperatures. NBM interquartile range for high temperatures on Sunday is around 10 degrees, with the warmer end of that range right around normal for mid April while the cooler end is several degrees below normal. Dewpoints also drop into the 20s suggesting that if we were to get a clear, calm night that temperatures could approach levels where a frost or freeze could develop. At this time, NBM probability of 32 degrees or colder is only 5 to 15 percent across the region as the likelihood of seeing the clear, calm conditions necessary to realize this air mass's full potential is low. We will begin to warm back up again early next week as amplified ridging rather quickly replaces this weekend's trough. Kimble && .AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning) Issued at 600 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Gusty SSW winds are expected area wide today under VFR clouds. The main questions regard the potential for thunderstorms and the timing at each terminal. For the most part, the day should be dry, although there's an outside chance (less than 20 percent) of thunderstorms popping up this afternoon. The better chance will be with storms moving into the region from the southwest during the overnight hours. This is most likely to affect COU, JEF, and UIN while the St Louis area's thunderstorm chances are too low to mention in the TAF at this time. Kimble && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX  660 FXUS62 KMFL 141101 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 701 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 700 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Reduced visibilities and air quality will be possible across portions of the Naples metro due to smoke from the Newman Fire. - Dangerous rip currents will continue at all east coast beaches of South Florida through at least Wednesday evening. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 125 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The deep-layer ridging pattern continues to maintain its strength and dominance through the middle of this week. With a drier air mass also remaining in place, there are no changes from the last couple of days in terms as we will see ongoing tranquil weather across the region. Only slight changes will be slowly rising temperatures each day and winds finally weakening as the pressure gradient begins to relax. Daytime high temperatures will continue to reach the low 80s for the east coast metro and upper 80s to near 90 for the Gulf coast region as the easterly regime favors warmer temps for the Gulf region during the day and cooler at night. One other item to monitor is the active Newman Wildfire in Collier County. The quiet weather pattern and breezy winds will allow for smoke to continue to disperse rather quickly to the point where it's generally uncontrollable. The easterly winds will push smoke towards the Gulf shore and other areas around there. As a result of this, local air quality issues are likely and can impact sensitive groups as firefighters continue to work on mitigating the fire. Additionally, smoke can contribute to lower visibilities on roadways and making driving unsafe in certain areas. Caution is advised when driving on the roadways until the fire is controlled, and vulnerable populations should consider limiting time outdoors. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 125 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Long range ensembles show a shortwave trough advecting across the central U.S. for the end of this week and the shortwave attempts to break down the deep-layer ridge over the Southeast U.S. However, with the ridge being highly amplified, it will not break down entirely and rather just 'flatten' out to an extent. As the shortwave trough then curves off northwards, upper level ridging re- amplifies in conjunction with a deep-layer trough forming over the Great Lakes region this weekend. This trough is expected to be strong enough to the point where it forces a frontal boundary and some moisture into northern Florida and weakens the ridging pattern more substantially. However, ensembles still keep 500mb heights around the 75th percentile for this date range (April 18-20), hinting that the high pressure has a good chance to hold onto its control of the local weather. If this trend holds firm, mostly dry weather would be expected to continue minus some isolated shower activity occurring as a result of increased daytime high temperatures under the ridge pattern and an increase in moisture availability. As the frontal boundary washes out after it enters northern Florida, PWATs may rise back to climatological norms over the weekend and into next week (1.2-1.4") which can support some weak shower activity even under a high pressure pattern, particularly as a result of sea breeze circulations. Overall, most ensemble members and clusters at this time favor a drier solution for this weekend and into early next week, and even the wetter solutions do not favor a highly active period with total QPF for each 24-hour period being below 0.5". As a result, the latest forecast keeps conditions predominantly dry with only slight chances for some shower activity at the beginning of next week. High temperatures will continue to rise each day through the end of the week and into this weekend underneath this large ridging pattern as we see highs rise to the mid to upper 80s along the east coast metro, upper 80s to low 90s for the Gulf coast, and low to mid 90s over the interior by Friday and continuing into the weekend. Overnight lows are expected to range each night from the low 60s for the Gulf coast, interior, and lake regions to the upper 60s and low 70s for the east coast metro. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 700 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Easterly winds 10-15 kts with gusts of 20-25 kts today. An afternoon westerly Gulf breeze is expected at APF. Smoke from a wildfire in Collier county may impact visibility near APF this morning before the westerly wind shift. && .MARINE... Issued at 125 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Winds decrease back to a moderate breeze beginning today, which is expected to last into the end of the week. Cautionary conditions are still expected with winds in the range of 15-20 kts, but advisory criteria is expected to be avoided. Seas of 4-6 feet expected in the local Atlantic waters and 2 feet or less in the Gulf waters. && .BEACHES... Issued at 125 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A high risk for rip currents continues through the middle of this week and may persist into the end of the week as brisk onshore flow continues. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 80 68 80 69 / 0 0 0 0 West Kendall 83 65 83 65 / 0 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 82 67 82 69 / 0 0 0 0 Homestead 82 68 81 69 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 79 69 79 70 / 0 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 79 68 80 69 / 0 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 83 69 83 70 / 0 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 80 67 80 68 / 0 0 0 0 Boca Raton 80 68 80 69 / 0 0 0 0 Naples 87 64 85 65 / 0 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for FLZ168-172- 173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Redman LONG TERM....Redman AVIATION...CMF  337 FXUS63 KILX 141102 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 602 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - The stretch of warm weather is expected to last through Friday, with daily temperatures climbing near 80 degrees, and at times, the mid-80s. Breezy winds, occasionally reaching 25-35 mph, will accompany this warm period. - This week will be riddled with thunderstorm potential. Today, Wednesday, and Friday currently exhibit the highest probability (15-30%) of severe weather. - There is also potential for substantial accumulative rainfall throughout the week, with our multi-model ensemble predicting a medium (30-50%) chance of exceeding 2 inches through Saturday in areas north of Interstate 72. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 301 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Satellite imagery reveals two key areas of convection this morning. First, a cluster of decaying thunderstorms in central Missouri, as shown by warming cloud tops. The associated convectively-augmented shortwave is anticipated to move eastward along the I-70 corridor into central Illinois later this morning. Second, a persistent area of convection is situated further north over northeast Iowa and southern Wisconsin, near the primary surface boundary, with its outflow boundary slowly advancing southward into northern Illinois. The region situated between these two features remains favorable for renewed thunderstorm development. A strong 40-50 kt low- level jet (LLJ) is present, maintaining a healthy sink of MUCAPE (1500-2000 J/kg). Furthermore, the eastward-tracking convectively-augmented shortwave is expected to boost effective layer shear to nearly 40 knots and sustain favorable mid-level lapse rates. Given this combination of sufficient CAPE, shear, and residual forcing mechanisms, the re-ignition of convection into central and east-central Illinois is considered plausible this morning. Model guidance, specifically the HRRR and RRFS, suggests the potential development of an elevated thunderstorm cluster. If this materializes, the primary convective hazard through mid- morning will be hail. Despite the development of a highly volatile atmosphere this afternoon, featuring surface temperatures in the mid-80s, 60s dewpoints, favorable mid-level lapse rates, an intensifying mid- level jet, and robust SBCAPE (2500-3500 J/kg), the potential for thunderstorms remains low. This is primarily due to a persistent cap, maintained by residual subsidence and marginal mid-level height increases following the morning shortwave. This cap, particularly in the 1-3 km layer, could significantly limit, or even prevent, convective development. Synoptic forcing today appears nebulous, compounding the forecast difficulty: the main surface front is expected to stay north; the location of potential convective outflows is unknown; and no strong shortwave is lifting across the area. This has led to substantial uncertainty in the timing and location of storm initiation, with CAMs struggling to accurately predict storm evolution. However, if updrafts manage to breach the cap later this afternoon or early evening, the environment is primed to support significant-severe convective hazards. The profile is a classic "loaded gun", but the trigger (forcing) is largely missing, or at least unknown at the moment. Regardless of today's convective outcome, the likelihood of widespread convection increases significantly by Wednesday morning. This is expected as a low-level jet axis establishes across the region and a preceding shortwave disturbance ejects ahead of a more potent trough tracking across the lee of the Rockies. Additional rounds of storms are then likely through Wednesday evening as the main trough swings across the Mid-Mississippi Valley. A favorable CAPE/shear environment is anticipated to support elevated supercell and multicell structures over central Illinois throughout the day, capable of producing all severe hazards, including localized heavy rainfall. Thursday looks to be a region-wide break from storms due to synoptic-scale subsidence moving in behind the departing upper trough. Thunderstorm activity is then expected to return over the weekend, specifically Friday night into Saturday. This is associated with a compact shortwave trough lifting across the Mid-Mississippi Valley ahead of a pivoting, more vigorous trough and its accompanying cold front. The CAPE/shear parameter space appears volatile enough to support an organized severe convective risk, even though the front appears to pass during a diurnally unfavorable time. Following the cold frontal passage, temperatures will cool significantly from Saturday night through Monday as the warm, moist air mass from the previous week is flushed out. The latest NBM deterministic guidance supports Sunday afternoon high temperatures near 60 degrees, with overnight lows around 40 degrees. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 551 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Isolated thunderstorms are ongoing to start this TAF period, but will gradually diminish in coverage from west to east through 15z. Broken MVFR ceilings are currently observed upstream across northeast Missouri and southeast Iowa, and will likely overspread the KPIA- KBMI- KCMI terminals, with lower probabilities to the south. These are forecast to lift above 3 kft AGL by midday, with VFR conditions prevailing for the remainder of the TAF period. An isolated storm cannot be ruled out this afternoon, but confidence and coverage remain too low to mention in the TAF at this time. The better chance for widespread thunderstorms arrives between 06z-12z, and we have introduced a PROB30 mention during this timeframe across all terminals. Southwest winds will remain gusty through the period, near 25 kts at times. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 307 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 RECORD HIGHS FOR 4/14: PEORIA: 86 (2024) SPRINGFIELD: 89 (2006) LINCOLN: 87 (2006) NORMAL: 84 (2006) URBANA: 84 (2010) DECATUR: 88 (1941) FORECAST HIGHS FOR 4/14/2026: PEORIA: 84 SPRINGFIELD: 87 LINCOLN: 86 NORMAL: 84 URBANA: 84 DECATUR: 85 && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...MJA DISCUSSION...MJA AVIATION...MJA CLIMATE...25/MJA  707 FXUS61 KBTV 141104 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 704 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 344 AM EDT Tuesday... Confidence in severe weather has increased across portions of central and southern Vermont today as a Slight Risk (2 out of 5) has been added by the Storm Prediction Center for possible damaging winds. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 344 AM EDT Tuesday... 1. Showers with embedded thunderstorms likely today, with a couple stronger storms possible, mainly south of US Route 4. Damaging winds will be the main threat with any possible severe storms. 2. Additional precipitation chances and warm temperatures will continue through the end of the work week with some embedded thunderstorm chances in the afternoons. 3. A more amplified weather pattern and shortwave will lead to unseasonably warm conditions and scattered rain showers at the end of the week. 4. A round of widespread showers Saturday night and Sunday will usher in a sharply cooler period early next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 344 AM EDT Tuesday... KEY MESSAGE 1: An area of enhanced convection associated with an MCS is currently tracking across the Great Lakes this morning with widespread lightning as it approaches our area. This area of energy is riding along a nearly stationary boundary that is draped across our region with a weak surface low centered over Lake Michigan. This sfc low will track near the International Border by this afternoon bringing widespread shower and thunderstorm chances. The latest SPC day1 outlook shows a Slight Risk (2 out of 5) south of a line from Saranac Lake, NY to Lebanon, NH, with a Marginal Risk (1 out of 5) for the rest of the region. The main threat with any thunderstorms today will be potentially damaging gusty winds. A cold front associated with the sfc low will begin to organize itself into a broken line of showers as early as noon today across the St. Lawrence Valley. Instability ahead of the line remains somewhat uncertain for most of the region with high clouds and a lack of diurnal heating time as the boundary slides east. HRRR and RRFS models denote an earlier boundary progression between 3 and 5 PM in the CPV, whereas the NAM3k continues to favor a later arrival to the CPV between 6 PM and 8 PM, which the latter would be favorable for stronger storms. Any instability in the warm sector will be maximized in the southern Champlain Valley and southern Vermont where some clearing and higher temperatures into the 70s will allow Sfc CAPE to rise to 400-600J/kg progged in the HRRR, supported by HREF probability maximums of 40-60% across southern Vermont. Furthermore, these warming temperatures will allow lapse rates to rise to 7-8C/km supporting areas of thunderstorms development. A low level jet across the International Border will help support 0 to 6 km shear to 40 to 50 knots mainly north of US 4, but with pockets of embedded 40-50 knots of shear in southern Vermont. This highlights the strongest winds are north and the highest instability is south. These pockets of embedded higher shear will be colocated with curving hodographs and around 200 m2/s2 0 to 3 km SRH which would support some isolated areas of rotation. However, failure modes do exist, with convective blowoff limiting instability potential, LCLs to above 1000 m, and the innate climatology of rotation for our region that would not favor any supercells this time of year. Localized heavy rain cannot be ruled out with Pwats around 1 to 1.25 inches, but progressive storm motion, and lack of training storm signals keeps this threat level low. This will be a nowcasting type of day as we watch how the environment evolves throughout the day to see how robust convection will be. For now the greatest action will likely be across Rutland/Windsor Counties with the potential for damaging wind gusts above 60 MPH, with most of the overall action south of our CWA. KEY MESSAGE 2: An active weather pattern is expected through mid week into late week as a nearly stationary boundary becomes draped across the region north of a ridge over the Southeast. Multiple shortwaves will ride along this ridge under westerly flow producing additional chances for precipitation through the late week. The stationary boundary will likely fluctuate from day to day depending on both mesoscale features like residual convective prior day activity and synoptic flow. These changes will have significant impacts on temperatures and daytime instability for both Wednesday and Thursday. Latest trends indicate the Wednesday system arriving during the late morning into early afternoon with embedded thunderstorms possible. Given the timing thunderstorm chances will be limited, but the best chances will be across central and southern Vermont. This setup will be similar to todays thunderstorm potential, but the boundary may setup a bit south of todays, which would limit the available instability. HRRR/NAM3 profiles show weaker lapse rates with a low LCL and potential strong inversion above 500 ft. There will be little change in the overall airmass with temperatures still rising into the upper 60s to low 70s in southern Vermont and in the upper 50s to low 60s elsewhere. Thursday will will almost be a carbon copy of Wednesday, and as usual, instability will be the driving factor for any thunderstorm potential. Trends for Thursday have been towards some morning convection which will limit the afternoon instability and thunderstorm threat, but with these setups, boundary motion is hard to nail down, and where and if these thunderstorms develop is still uncertain. Regardless, most of the area can expected rounds of showers and embedded thunderstorms and warm temperatures through the late week. KEY MESSAGE 3: A quick-hitting shortwave will bring some rain showers and potential embedded thunderstorms, mainly in southern Vermont, on Friday as guidance indicates 925mb temperatures could reach 13-17 C Friday afternoon. Due to this and decreasing clouds, forecast surface temps are as high as the 60s and lower 70s, with non-zero instability values projected. Probability of measurable precipitation runs about 30-60% Friday afternoon, likely realized as spotty showers everywhere and a few rumbles of thunder in central/southern Vermont. Lows Friday night should remain mild in the 40s and lower 50s, with only a brief period of high pressure between systems late Friday night and Saturday morning. The next chance for precipitation arrives late Saturday afternoon and evening as a larger frontal system approaches. Despite increasing clouds, temperatures are expected to again rise above seasonable normals Saturday, reaching into the 60s in strong southerly flow and modest warm air advection. KEY MESSAGE 4: A large frontal system, centered over Ontario and the Hudson Bay Saturday night, will drag a cold frontal boundary through the forecast area into Sunday. Lows Saturday night in the 40s and lower 50s will fall into the upper 20s to mid 30s on Sunday night, and highs Sunday in the mid 50s to lower 60s become upper 30s to mid 40s Monday as cooler air spills into the region on northwesterly flow behind a secondary cold front. Probabilities of measurable precipitation in six hours are about 50-65% by Sunday afternoon, though probabilities of rainfall 0.50" within 24 hours during this period is around 10-30%. Thunderstorms are most likely Sunday afternoon in northern New York when warmth lingers, but the timing of instability, warmth, and forcing do not align favorably for widespread t-storms in this system as the best forcing occurs at night. Sunday night and Monday, as temperatures fall, there is the potential for some snow showers, mainly at higher elevations, before the arrival of drier air behind a secondary front tapers off precip. High pressure keeps weather quieter and cool toward the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 12Z Wednesday...Low clouds and fog will disperse and lift this morning. Showers with embedded thunderstorms are likely today, with a couple stronger storms possible. Damaging winds will be the main threat with any severe storms. An area of enhanced convection is currently tracking across the Great Lakes this morning with widespread lightning as it approaches our area from the west. Question remains on how much clouds clear up throughout the day today. Most likely seeing cigs lift to widespread VFR levels until showers and thunderstorms come through this afternoon and evening, lowering cigs back to MVFR and potentially IFR. Vis will also be limited in showers and t-storms, though confidence is lower on the exact timing of t-storms and their lowered visibilities. Wind gusts out of the southwest 15-25 knots for most sites are likely with the passage of the showers and t-storms in the afternoon. Some LLWS is also expected as southwest to west winds at 2000 ft agl increase along the showers/storms, around 16Z-20Z Tuesday onwards. After the showers/storms pass through each site, ceilings are expected to lower to widespread IFR by around 00Z Wednesday. Outlook... Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Wednesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Thursday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA. Friday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday: MVFR. Slight chance SHRA. && .CLIMATE... As of 344 AM EDT Tuesday... Incoming warmer air is presently forecast to approach daily record values. The most likely dates for near or broken records will be today with mild overnight air leading to high minimum temperatures. Below are some of the daily records in jeopardy of being broken (current forecast at or within 3 degrees of the record). Record High Minimum Temperatures: April 14: KBTV: 54/2023 KPBG: 51/1964 KSLK: 47/1964 && .EQUIPMENT... The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service. This site is not serviced by the NWS. An estimated return to service is May 1st. Please contact us if you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational forecast. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Danzig DISCUSSION...Storm/Danzig AVIATION...Storm CLIMATE...NWS BTV EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV  163 FXUS65 KTFX 141104 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 504 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Aviation Section Updated. .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong and gusty winds along the Rocky Mountain Front today, with strong winds shifting to the north-south orientated valleys of Southwest Montana on Wednesday. - A potent spring storm will bring accumulating snow to the Northern Rockies from Wednesday night through Thursday night, especially to Southwest Montana. - Below normal temperatures expected from Thursday through Friday. && .DISCUSSION... /Issued 1214 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026/ - Meteorological Overview: Unsettled conditions are expected across the Northern Rockies through the remainder of the work week as zonal flow (today) backs to the southwest (tonight and Wednesday) ahead of a potent upper level wave digging into the Pacific Northwest. This upper level wave will continue to dig southeast and over the Great Basin through the day on Thursday before lifting northeast and over the Central Rockies and High Plains on Friday. At the surface a Pacific front will sweep east across the Northern Rockies by Wednesday evening, with a cold front quickly plunging south during the early morning hours on Thursday. Northwest flow will settle in over the Northern Rockies from Friday night through Saturday night before upper level ridging builds back in for the second half of the weekend and start to the work week. - Moldan - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: Strong Winds Today... Lee-side surface trough along the Rocky Mountain Front will begin to sharpen through the day as low pressure develops over Southern Alberta, with the surface pressure gradient peaking at between 0.125 to 0.15 mb/km from the mid-morning through the late afternoon hours across this area. H700 flow per NAEFS analysis will increase and peak at between 40-60kts from the afternoon through evening hours, with BUFKIT soundings for areas along the immediate Rocky Mountain Front over this timeframe supporting ideal thermal profiles for mountian wave activity. With this all in mind the best opportunity for strong winds looks to be from 12-9PM today when the winds will be enhanced from both pressure gradient force, mountain wave activity and overall mixing. While it is possible that these strong winds work east of the US Hwy 89 corridor to areas like Mission Lake over this timeframe, current thinking is that the strongest winds will remain along and west of the US Hwy 89 corridor (i.e. Browning and East Glacier Areas). Latest NBM4.3 probabilities for gusts in excess of 55 mph for Browning and East Glacier are at a 70% and 95% chance respectively, 25% and 65% chance for 65 mph, and 5% and 20% chance for 75 mph. With High Wind Criteria for the Browning and East Glacier Areas being 75 mph we will not be issuing any High Wind highlights at this point in time. High Wind Potential on Wednesday... Climate anomaly indicators such as the ECMWF EFIs and NAEFS support a climatologically unusual to very unusual wind event, with respect to mid-April climatology, within the north-south orientated valleys of Southwest Montana (south of the I-90 corridor) from the late morning through afternoon hours on Wednesday. ECMWF EFIs with respect to sustained wind speeds generally range from 0.6 to 0.8 for these valley locations, with gusts being slightly higher at 0.7 to nearly 0.9. H700 winds per NAEFS analysis peak around 30-40kts during the afternoon hours, which is 2.5 standard deviations above normal. Most critically of all these winds will be orientated parallel with the valleys, which is likely to lead to enhanced speeds due to terrain funneling. Additionally, rain showers developing across Southwest Montana within an environment characterized by inverted-V soundings will be capable of producing strong and erratic winds. Given these factors a High Wind Watch has been issued for the Beaverhead and Madison River Valleys in Southwest Montana from 9AM to 6PM Wednesday. Accumulating Snow from Wednesday afternoon/evening through Thursday night.... Model guidance (deterministic and ensemble) has been consistent over the last 3-4 days in bringing accumulating snow (what) to the Northern Rockies and High Plains over the timeframe (when); however, this consistency has waffled in where the heaviest snow actually falls. Over the past 48 hours the aforementioned guidance has largely settled in on a solution that places the heaviest snow over the Tobacco Root, Gravelly, Centennial, Madison, and Gallatin Ranges from Wednesday evening through Friday morning; however, even mountains and lower elevation location outside of this area across Southwest through North Central Montana will see some accumulating snow. Latest ECMWF EFIs support the potential for a very unusual snowfall for the West Yellowstone Area and southern halves of the Madison and Gallatin Ranges, with unusual snowfall for the remainder of the Southwest Montana mountains and Glacier National Park mountains. NBM4.3 probabilities for snowfall accumulations of 9" or more for the Tobacco Root, Gravelly, Centennial, Madison, and Gallatin Ranges is in excess of a 70% chance, with between a 45-55% chance for Raynolds and Targhee Passes. Given these high probabilities and run-to-run consistency over the past 48 hours a Winter Storm Watch has been issued for the Gallatin and Madison County Mountains and Centennial Mountains; including the cities of Big Sky, West Yellowstone, Targhee Pass, and Raynolds Pass from Wednesday evening through Friday morning. This watch may need to be expanded to include the East Glacier Park Region given similar probabilities; however, given that Marias Pass has only a 35% chance for 9" of snow current thinking is that this area could be covered with a Winter Weather Advisory given that the most impactful snow will occur in GNP where the park is largely still closed. Otherwise, most locations have been trending towards Winter Weather Advisory level snowfall amounts, which can be addressed as the event draws nearer. - Moldan && .AVIATION... 14/12Z TAF Period Increasing southwest to west surface winds can be expected across most terminals from 15z this morning through 03z this evening, with the strongest winds occurring along the eastern slopes of the Continental Divide. Mountain wave activity is likely along and west of the I-15 corridor across Central and North Central Montana over this same timeframe. Otherwise low-VFR/VFR conditions will prevail throughout the 1412/1512 TAF period, with mountain obscuration along the Continental Divide for much of the next 24 hours. - Moldan && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 59 41 59 29 / 0 20 30 80 CTB 53 33 54 22 / 10 10 10 50 HLN 61 37 59 28 / 0 10 40 90 BZN 61 35 59 28 / 10 10 40 100 WYS 47 27 45 27 / 10 10 90 100 DLN 57 35 57 28 / 0 10 40 100 HVR 64 38 62 28 / 0 10 10 80 LWT 60 36 58 28 / 10 20 50 90 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday evening through late Thursday night for Gallatin and Madison County Mountains and Centennial Mountains. High Wind Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon for Beaverhead and Western Madison below 6000ft- Madison River Valley. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls  562 FXUS63 KMPX 141107 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 607 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of dense fog in the morning. - Stretch of unseasonably warm temperatures will continue through Friday. - Additional chances for showers/thunderstorms Wednesday and Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 256 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Regional radar imagery highlights our thunderstorms from yesterday evening are now a decaying MCS over E WI and W MI this morning. Surface observations reveal temperatures in the 40s and 50s with light and variable winds. This combined with the brief period of clear skies behind the frontal passage has led to the formation of areas of dense fog and low stratus across western Wisconsin and southern Minnesota. The area of dense fog will likely spread east across portions of central and western MN overnight. Fog will be slow to erode this morning, but should improve by lunch. On the other hand, cloud cover will stick around much of the day. Temperatures will likely end up in the 60s with a chance of 70 along I-90. Not bad for mid-April but not exactly a great day to spend outdoors. Precipitation chances will be restricted to the I-90 corridor in MN and along/south of I-94 in W WI. Twin Cities and locations N/W will remain dry. Another shortwave will track northeast from the Plains on Wednesday. This will bring another round of showers across the area. Thunderstorm threat should remain south and east of MN and western WI. Highs top out in the 60s. As that wave departs, another system developing over the Plains will begin to push east on Thursday. Speaking of Thursday, current guidance supports a rather nice day. Skies should clear out behind Wednesday's system and warm air advection ramps up ahead of the incoming Plains low. The southerly flow should help temperatures warm back into the mid 70s and looks like the nicest day of the forecast period. On Friday, moisture continues to return across the area as the next system moves through. A rather potent cold front is forecast with this system and will likely lead to another round of thunderstorms Friday afternoon. There is good model consistency with this system. If we take a look at the forecast soundings in the warm sector reveal another impressive early season environment with very steep lapse rates (8.0 to 9.0C/km), moderate instability, and favorable shear profiles. The cold front and it's associated synoptic forcing should be able to overcome the EML capping with convective initiation Friday afternoon. Storm mode should quickly turn linear before tracking east. This squall line would likely pose a severe risk Friday afternoon and early evening. Additionally, CSU ML probabilities would support a severe threat as well. The weekend will turn colder behind the front with highs in the 40s. The Saturday potential wintry mix/snow/slop looks less likely than it did 24 hours ago, notably the 00Z ECMWF & AIFS guidance no longer advertise the snow chance as they're weaker and further north with the system, but interestingly enough the GFS/GEM/ICON now support a brief period of snow. So what does this mean for your weekend forecast? It'll be colder with a chance of some light precipitation on Saturday. Sunday is dry, but remains chilly. It should be a good weekend to stay inside and finish up any projects before the warmer weather arrives for good. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 603 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 All terminals outside of AXN and RWF will see IFR or LIFR cigs to start the period. Cigs will improve slowly to MVFR by late morning and VFR by early afternoon. Winds will start light and variable before turning to the west-northwest by late morning. Winds will turn light and variable again tonight. This will likely lead to yet another round of fog and low stratus Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. KMSP... LIFR cigs to start at 400'. Could briefly lower to sub 300' so opted for a SCT002 OVC004. VSBY will likely decrease to MVFR or IFR levels, too. Gradual improvement with cigs to MVFR by late morning and VFR by early afternoon when NW winds arrive. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...MVFR/SHRA early, then VFR. Wind NE 5kts. THU...VFR, chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind SE 5-10kts. FRI...MVFR/SHRA likely, chance -TSRA. Wind SE to SW 10-15G25kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for Anoka-Blue Earth-Chisago-Dakota-Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue-Isanti- Kanabec-Le Sueur-Martin-Rice-Scott-Sherburne-Steele- Waseca-Washington-Watonwan-Wright. WI...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for Barron- Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix. && $$ DISCUSSION...BPH AVIATION...BPH  527 FXUS63 KOAX 141107 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 607 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this week, particularly Tuesday and Friday. - Thursday will be a drying day as a ridge moves in between systems. - Possible temperature impacts are expected for those with agricultural interests heading into the weekend. Expected lows Saturday and Sunday morning will be in the 20s and 30s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1201 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The forecast period begins with southwest flow over the region and an upper level trough over northwestern Arizona. Low pressure develops on the lee side of the Rockies overnight, lifting into extreme southwestern Nebraska and central Nebraska by daybreak Tuesday. Tuesday morning, a warm front develops as far north as Omaha/Council Bluffs. Temperatures are expected to climb into the 80s behind the front and the 70s to the north of it. Heading further into the day, the front will sag southward a little bit, nudging a little closer to the NE/KS border. Late afternoon into the evening, instability will increase across southeastern Nebraska/southwestern Iowa. SBCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg and MLCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg are expected. Storms are expected to develop along the warm front during the evening, a few of which may become strong to severe. Large hail and damaging wind gusts appear to be the main concerns with any storms that are able to develop. The severe potential could go into the early morning hours. The active weather pattern will continue through the rest of the week with another shortwave trough lifting out of the Four Corners region Tuesday and reaching southern Nebraska/northern Kansas by Wednesday morning. The low will remain over eastern Nebraska Wednesday morning, with a few showers and thunderstorms possible through the day. The low is expected to lift slightly to the north on Wednesday, bringing some wrap around moisture to northern Nebraska. PoPs will decrease southwest to northeast heading into the evening hours as the low exits. A few isolated strong storms may develop in the southeastern part of the CWA Wednesday evening. Thursday is still expected to be a dry out day as a ridge moves across the region. After the brief cool down (highs in the 70s) on Wednesday, warm air advects into the region. Expect widespread 80s for highs Thursday afternoon. Friday will be a day to watch as we get closer to the end of the week. Low pressure develops on the lee side of the Rockies with an attendant cold front moving into the region. An upper level trough over the Four Corners region will lift to the northeast into the area by Friday night. The cold front will be ushering in much cooler air with WAA and moisture advection ahead of it. There is still uncertainty in where the cold front reaches and the timing of everything. Strong to severe storms with this set up are expected, with all hazards possible. There is still considerable uncertainty in some of the forecast details for this period, so continue to monitor the forecast for potential changes. Cooler air pushing in behind the front will result in a cooler weekend. Saturday morning lows will be in the 30s, with low 30s expected from David City to Thurston and areas north. Those with agricultural interests will want to keep an eye on temperatures. Highs will struggle into the 50s for much of the area. A few locations will not make it into the 50s. Saturday night/Sunday morning will be cold once again with lows ranging from the mid-20s to the mid-30s. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 607 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Some patchy fog has developed near and east of the Missouri River, but thinking it should stay out of OMA. Guidance continues to hint at some 2000-3000 ft clouds developing near OMA and LNK, but maybe moreso FEW/SCT instead BKN now, so VFR conditions are now favored through the day. Winds at OFK will remain persistently out of the northeast, with perhaps a few gusts of 18 kts. However, they'll be much more variable at OMA and LNK, starting northeast and turning clockwise basically throughout the period. Expect southeasterly then southwestelry winds this afternoon, followed by northerly to northeasterly this evening and overnight. LNK could see some gusts of 20-25 kts at times. Finally, still expect storms to move through the area tonight, likely after 03Z, but guidance continues to suggest they'll be somewhat hit or miss, with areas northwest and southeast of the TAF sites more likely to see anything. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ078-088. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ANW AVIATION...CA  636 FXUS66 KPQR 141108 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 408 AM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .SYNOPSIS...A strong frontal boundary arrives today and tonight ushering in widespread rainfall across the coast through the inland valleys, and heavy snowfall to the Cascades. Due to the expected snowfall impacts for the latter area, a Winter Storm Warning is in effect. In the wake of the front showers and a slight chance (15-25%) for thunderstorms follow on Wednesday then concerns shift to cooler overnight temperatures and frost to end the week. After a brief stint of dry and warmer weather on Saturday, precipitation chances return by early next week. && .SHORT TERM...Now through Wednesday night...This morning satellite and radar observations show moisture associated with our next potent weather disturbance streaming into far northern Washington and Vancouver Island, the first signs of a rather significant pattern change anticipated to occur later today into the middle of the week. the robust upper-level low helping to steer this frontal boundary is slated to continue its dive out of the Gulf of Alaska bringing a swath of widespread precipitation and eventually cooler conditions. QPF values have changed little with the latest forecast guidance amounts from today through Wednesday generally ranging from 0.75 to 1.25 inches across the Willamette Valley and Portland metro, 1.00 to 2.25 inches along the coast and Coast Range, and 1.10 to 2.30 inches across the Cascades. However, for the latter region, especially at pass level, the precipitation will likely be falling as snow for a good chunk of this event. Speaking of snow the incoming system looks to bring roughly 10 to 22 inches of snowfall to the Cascades starting this afternoon through early Thursday morning mainly above 3500-4000 ft although, snow levels likely bottom out around 2000-3000ft on Wednesday just behind the front - higher elevation, more impacts. The latest NBM probabilities show a 60-90% probability of 12 inches or greater snowfall over a 48 hour period from today through Thursday afternoon at Santiam level and Willamette Pass, slightly lower (30-40%) at Government Camp. Overall the highest amounts likely fall in the high Cascades from Marion to Lane County. The period to watch as far the greatest travel impacts are will be from 4-10am on Wednesday when snowfall rates in the heavier precipitation bands right along the front may exceed 1-1.5 in/hr. So, if you are planning to travel over the Cascades passes, particularly Wednesday morning, please prepare for winter-like travel conditions. One other interesting facet of the forecast we're watching is the potential for 1-3 hr period of dynamic cooling temporarily punching snow levels into the 500-1500ft range near sunrise Wednesday morning. This has been a feature hinted at by the last several runs of the higher resolution guidance like the HRRR and NAMNEST right on the back edge of the cold-frontal boundary where persistent heavier precipitation combined with cold air just above the surface (-5C at 850mb) could facilitate this process, assuming all the proper variables align. The areas of particular interest are southwest Washington into the Portland Metro and the higher coast range/Cascade valleys. If this were to occur elevations as low as 500ft could see a rain/snow mix or "chunky rain" for an hour or two with no impacts. The chances for a light slush-up in the grass gets higher once you reach 1500ft, particularly in the Cascade foothills/valleys, but due to the warm antecedent conditions most impacts remain 2000ft+. Progressing through Wednesday a showery post frontal environment quickly overtakes the region coupled with increasing instability during the afternoon thanks to the core of the upper level low moving overhead. Most models show Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) values peaking around 200-500 j/kg, which is decent for our post-frontal environment weak thunderstorm set-ups. The main time period of focus is 11AM to 7PM on Wednesday when heating between shower bands may be maximized. Given this information, there is a 15-25% chance for thunderstorms across the majority of our CWA. Any of these pop- up thunderstorms may produce moderate to heavy rain, infrequent lightning, small hail/graupel, gusty and erratic winds. So, when thunder roars, go indoors or when you see a flash (of lightning), dash inside. With the loss of daytime heating thunderstorm chances decrease Wednesday night although showers likely persist. -99/42 .LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...By Thursday, the upper level low and associated front have left the CWA, but will leave the region under cooler conditions with increasing clearing. Thursday into Friday looks to have overnight lows below normal bottoming out in the mid 30s across the lowlands and spelling a potential for frost. Below freezing temperatures are even forecast for the higher coast range/Cascade valleys, including the Hood River Valley. Currently, the Portland/Vancouver Metro there is a 10-40% chance of overnight lows at or below 36 degrees F. From the Portland/Vancouver Metro areas southward towards Salem and Eugene, OR, expect a 45-85% chance of overnight lows at or below 36 degrees F. For locations north of Vancouver, expect a 50-75% chance of overnight lows at or below 36 degrees F. Additionally, there is a 80-95% chance of at least freezing temperatures in the Upper Hood River Valley for Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Similar conditions may develop again Thursday night into Friday morning, though with slightly lower probabilities (only 10-30% lower). Looking towards the weekend, temperatures gradually warm, reducing these morning frost concerns. Ensembles show a shortwave ridge of high pressure moving quickly overhead on Saturday, but being quickly followed by another low pressure system on Sunday originating from the Gulf of Alaska. Now, beyond Sunday and into the start of next week, WPC Cluster Guidance is favoring this low holding just off the OR/WA coast or moving over the inland Pac NW, which means that cooler and moister conditions are favored for the start of next week. -99/42 && .AVIATION...Conditions are generally VFR across the region this morning with increasing southerly flow ahead of a quickly approaching cold-frontal system. Chances for MVFR CIGs along the coast quickly increase to 70-80% by 14-16z this morning as rain moves overhead with a 40-60% chance for IFR conditions during the afternoon and evening. Inland terminals will hold on to VFR conditions a bit longer with MVFR probabilities increasing after 18z to 40-60% as rain increases, but CIGs may fluctuate until the later afternoon and evening when more uniform cloud cover is expected to move in overhead and MVFR conditions likely settle in. Along with rain, winds will increase also increase today with gusts along the coast reaching to 25-35 kt after 18z and 20-25 kt for inland locations. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions likely persist through the morning hours however stratiform rainfall increases midday into the mid afternoon. CIGs are expected to respond in-kind with chances for MVFR conditions rising after 16-18z - probabilities between 70-80% after 20z. Southerly winds also increase during the afternoon with gusts between 20-25 knots persisting through the evening. -99 && .MARINE...The focus today remains on the arrival of a robust cold-frontal boundary slowly spreading across the waters north to south. As a result expect southwest winds to increase with gusts up to 30 kt across all coastal waters. Winds are expected to be strongest this afternoon into early Tue evening. During this time, there will be around a 3-6 hour period when gusts could (30-50% chance) exceed 34 kt, producing marginal Gale Force wind gusts. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect across the inner and outer waters including the Columbia River Bar starting this morning. The increased wind waves are expected to build seas to around 7 to 10 ft with a period of around 8-10 seconds. Seas remain steep and choppy through Tue night as well. Behind the frontal boundary Tuesday night winds abruptly shift northwest with gusts increasing back up to 20-25 kt as an area of low pressure drops along the Canadian coast toward the Puget Sound. This will also bring a 15-25% chance of thunderstorms over the waters through Wed evening. Seas are expected to persist at around around 8 to 10 ft on Wednesday, building slightly to around 9 to 11 ft Wed night as a northwest swell moves through the waters. Given these seas the Small Craft Advisory was extended out into Thursday morning. High pressure then builds over the waters later this week as northerly winds return and seas gradually subside to around 3 to 6 ft Friday into Saturday. There is potential for another weather system to impact the waters the second half of the weekend into early next week likely increasing winds and seas yet again. -99/DH && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ126>128. WA...Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Thursday for WAZ211. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 5 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ210. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 5 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ251-271. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 5 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ252-253-272-273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland  795 FXUS64 KSJT 141109 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 609 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorm chances will persist Monday into Wednesday, with a threat for severe storms each day. - A cold front is expected on Saturday, bringing low rain chances and considerably cooler temperatures for the upcoming weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1256 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Another day with isolated to scattered thunderstorms expected to develop this afternoon and evening. A dryline will again shift east to near the western border of the Big Country and Concho Valley, with CAPE values of 3000+ ahead of the dryline. Again though, convergence along the dryline is relatively weak and there are questions on just where and how widespread any convection will be. As we have talked about the last few days, it looks like a weak shortwave may approach the Southern Plains later this afternoon and evening as well, although additional support from it is still uncertain as well. CAMs are all over the place, although most of them show considerably less convection than it looked like a few days ago. With that said, the high model blend POPs (60-80%) just seems overdone for this afternoon and evening with almost none of the CAMs showing convection this widespread. Will decrease POPs back to something in the 30-50% range for most area. Given the instability and much like Monday, any storm that can develop will likely become severe with large to very large hail possible. Low level jet increases to 35-45kts this evening and this may keep any storm alive into the overnight hours. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 1256 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Expect a repeat for Wednesday as a lazy dryline will fire off a few to isolated thunderstorms during the late afternoon and evening hours. The combination of moderate/strong instability and good deep layer shear will result in a few severe storms. Looks like mainly quiet weather for Thursday across the area as weak upper level ridging will be in control. The next strong storm system with a sharper dryline will move into the Central and Southern Plains Friday. Looks like the more organized severe weather will remain north of our area. However, isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across west central Texas during the late afternoon into Friday night. A cold front moves south across the area Saturday with cooler and dry weather this weekend into early next week. Temperatures will be slightly above normal this week. Please keep up with the latest weather information as the month of April is severe weather season. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 605 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Its a little patchy in some locations, but overall MVFR cigs have spread across most West Central Texas terminals early this morning. As has been the case the last several days these should persist into the the mid/late morning hours before lifting into a low end VFR deck and then eventually scattering out. Added a PROB30 into the KSJT, KABI, and KSOA terminals with the latest CAMs showing a little more certainty in timing on where storms may begin to develop this afternoon. This timing of course will need to be better defined as we get later in the day. South to southeast winds will prevail and will continue to be gusty at times. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 82 65 84 60 / 50 50 50 10 San Angelo 81 63 85 60 / 40 50 50 10 Junction 82 62 80 61 / 20 40 60 10 Brownwood 81 64 78 61 / 40 50 70 20 Sweetwater 83 65 87 59 / 40 50 40 0 Ozona 77 63 82 60 / 40 50 40 10 Brady 79 64 77 62 / 20 40 70 20 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION...07  638 FXUS63 KAPX 141111 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 711 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Ongoing flooding may worsen with additional rain and storms through daybreak. Highest rainfall expected south of M-72. - Severe thunderstorm chances tonight and again Tuesday evening/Tuesday night with primary hazards of damaging winds and large hail. - Additional rounds of rain and mild temperatures through this week before turning cold late this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 128 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Pattern Synopsis: Continued active pattern consisting of troughing over the western CONUS and ridging anchored over the eastern seaboard. This will continue to result in an active, southern stream wave dominant pattern that leads to numerous disturbances riding into the Great Lakes region, focused along a stationary boundary draped over Michigan. A direct Gulf moisture tap will continue to lead to anomalously moist airmasses moving into Michigan, and thus continues a heavy rain and thunderstorm threat through the end of the week. Some signs of a pattern breakdown with cooler weather through the weekend into next week... with perhaps a brief reprieve from the wet conditions as well. Details: Ongoing convection to continue through roughly daybreak. Warm / stationary frontal boundary draped from Frankfort to Harrisville, which will continue to be the focus for deeper convection. Strong low level jet (LLJ) intrusion driving elevated convection north into the Tip of the Mitt as well. Heaviest rainfall rates and severe threat (hail and wind) will still favor areas near and south of M-32, though with the ongoing high water situation across the far northern reaches of northern lower, there will continue to be flooding issues there as well. Rainfall will diminish into the morning hours, giving a temporary break to the area. Dry weather to prevail through Tuesday, with the warm front sliding just south owing to the ongoing convection. Another wave riding this front will traverse lower Michigan. With much more instability to play with, we may be looking at another round of severe storms and heavy rain... but initial thinking from guidance is that this will be suppressed downstate for the most part... perhaps scraping the M- 55 corridor. This will be an all hazards type setup, and unfortunately will have to be refined with time based on where the warm front goes. Nonetheless... it does appear the farther north one goes, there should be a lesser risk of rain and thunderstorms later tonight. Additional waves of energy will barge through the region and deliver more rounds of rainfall. Still a bit fuzzy on the details for the time being... but timing is coming into focus. Additional showers and storms will be possible south on Wednesday, overspreading much of northern lower into Wednesday night - Thursday. Another reprieve likely comes Friday before a larger system passes through the region, delivering yet another round of rain and thunder Friday night through Saturday. This will bring about colder temperatures to the region... with the temperature contrast of colder in eastern upper and mild / 70s south coming to a conclusion. Highs by Sunday will be in the 30s to near 40 across the board with snow chances. The chill will moderate some into midweek next week... with highs possibly reaching back into the 50s. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 711 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 LIFR cigs/visbys to continue this morning; some lingering rain possible. May try to improve around 15-18z into 21z with potential for some MVFR to even VFR at times... with potential for -RA and TSRA returning after 23/0z thru at least 9z...esp for TVC/MBL but could reach to PLN and APN. Return to LIFR expected after 0-3z. Winds may start vrb or northerly this morning, and turn more easterly or vrb this afternoon, generally 6kts or less. Not impossible some LLWS may try to develop this afternoon and esp this evening/tonight. Think a subtle front may try to drift through tonight which could transition winds back to NW-ish late. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for MIZ016>018-020>036- 041-042-086>088-095-096-099. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...HAD AVIATION...FEF  012 FXUS64 KMAF 141112 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 612 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 601 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Low to medium shower and thunderstorm chances (10-40%) today across the Permian Basin and Lower Trans-Pecos. Damaging winds and large hail remain the primary hazards for the strongest storms. - Near-critical fire weather conditions are expected across southeast New Mexico, the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains, and portions of far west Texas through Friday. - Very windy conditions expected in the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains beginning this morning lasting through the evening. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Current satellite imagery and latest 500mb RAP analysis shows an upper-level low near the Desert Southwest. Strong southwesterly flow aloft over the region allows for strong to breezy winds and another round of storms today. Starting off with the winds, a 500mb jet max is expected to be positioned over central New Mexico. Guidance continues to show a mountain wave signature at both the 500 and 700mb levels across the Guadalupe Mountains. This signature suggests strong winds over these areas, therefore, a High Wind Warning is in effect until Tuesday evening. Strong winds are also anticipated over the Eddy County Plains this afternoon and early evening prompting a Wind Advisory. The dryline looks to advance in the eastern portions of the forecast area, keeping dry conditions for southeast New Mexico allowing elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions during the afternoon. Dense high cloud cover is going to limit the fire weather threat. See the fire weather discussion for more details below! Another round of storms are anticipated once again this afternoon and evening. Storm coverage and chances increase due to the additional lift from the approaching upper-level storm system and Pacific front. Storms look to develop in the mid afternoon hours across the Lower Trans Pecos. Further storm development takes shape as the dryline retreats back west in the early evening hours mainly across portions of the Permian Basin. A couple of storms may become strong to severe with the primary threats being damaging winds and large hail, thanks to sufficient deep-layer wind shear and instability. CAMs seem to be over-estimating instability (1500-3000 J/kg) for eastern portions of the area. Broken cloud coverage throughout the afternoon will limit instability, therefore, limiting the severe weather threat. Nonetheless, the environment is still favorable for a few strong storms to occur. Wednesday, the upper-level storm system moves further east into the Central Plains. This will keep the dryline east enough where low chances (10-20%) for isolated storms exist for far eastern portions during the afternoon and early evening. The aforementioned Pacific front cools temperatures slightly with highs ranging from the upper 70s and 80s for most locations. Lamberson && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Afternoon highs are expected to remain in the 80s and 90s during the latter part of this week, with Friday being the warmest day due to southwesterly downslope flow. The dryline we've been talking about the last several days could stay west enough for a small (10-20%) chance of a shower/storm to develop in the Permian Basin Thursday evening. By Friday, an upper-level trough moves across the Central Rockies and into the Central Great Plains. Meanwhile, the dryline moves back west near the Texas/New Mexico border and extends south towards the Big Bend. However, the best forcing for ascent is expected to be off to our north and wind will be the main impact portions of our area feels from this system. We are keeping a close eye on Friday in terms of fire weather as strong westerly winds, low relative humidity, and dry fuels are forecast across southeast New Mexico (see Fire Weather Discussion below for additional details). By Friday night into Saturday, a strong cold front is forecast to move through the area, resulting in northerly to northeasterly winds and cooler temperatures. We may have to increase winds in our forecast behind the front towards the end of the week as the NBM often handles these systems poorly. Afternoon highs drop into the 70s for most on Saturday, with even cooler temperatures on Sunday. This is due to increased cloud cover, chances of rain (10-40% mainly south of I-20), and easterly upslope flow. Cluster analysis depicts the return of upper-level ridging by early next week, signaling another temperature warmup. However, there is uncertainty in how much of a warmup we should expect as there is currently large spread amongst the ensemble members. This is likely due to differences in model solutions regarding the positioning and strength of the ridge. Greening && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 601 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Light southerly and southwesterly winds increase by the late morning to early afternoon hours across all terminals. Occasional gusts up to 40 kts may occur at CNM, while areas elsewhere with gusts up to 30 kts. Winds are expected to decrease after sunset. Included -TSRA PROB30 at FST due to increasing confidence of storm development. Opted to not include a PROB30 for MAF at this time, though amendments may be needed in the next package. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Fire weather conditions increase today as stronger winds and MinRHs between 10-15 percent are expected along with drier fuels. Cloudy skies and light fuel loading will be limiting factors in the threat for rapid fire growth. As such, we have cancelled the Fire Weather Watch and opted not to upgrade to a Red Flag Warning, but instead issued a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement. Near-critical fire weather conditions continue through the end of the week for southeastern New Mexico and the northern Permian Basin, with Friday being the day to focus on most as a deep upper-level trough enters the Great Plains. This is expected to bring stronger southwesterly winds which in turn lowers MinRHs into the single digits. Additionally, continued drying fuels raise RFTIs into the 6-8 range across much of southeast New Mexico and portions of northern Culberson County in west Texas. This may result in critical to potentially extreme fire weather conditions on Friday for these areas. However, monitoring the latest forecast is highly suggested as things may change. Friday night into Saturday, winds are expected to shift northerly to northeasterly behind a cold front. As a result, cooler temperatures and improved MinRHs improve fire weather conditions, though winds are expected to be breezy. Greening && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 86 62 86 54 / 40 30 20 0 Carlsbad 86 55 82 48 / 10 0 0 0 Dryden 84 64 87 61 / 40 30 20 10 Fort Stockton 88 62 86 56 / 20 20 10 0 Guadalupe Pass 74 52 72 51 / 10 0 0 0 Hobbs 84 54 81 48 / 10 10 0 0 Marfa 78 48 78 44 / 10 10 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 86 62 85 55 / 20 30 10 0 Odessa 86 62 84 55 / 20 30 10 0 Wink 87 59 85 50 / 10 20 10 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Wind Warning from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning to 11 PM CDT /10 PM MDT/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. NM...High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 10 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County. Wind Advisory from noon today to 7 PM MDT this evening for Eddy County Plains. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....55 AVIATION...11  076 FXUS63 KGRB 141113 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 613 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a risk for severe weather south of a Wisconsin Rapids to Sturgeon Bay line this afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds are the main hazards. There is also an isolated tornado threat south of HWY 10. - Thunderstorms will lead to localized heavy rainfall, greater than 1", this afternoon and evening across central and east- central WI. This will lead to additional flood concerns through tonight. - Minor to moderate river flooding is ongoing or forecast to occur on several area rivers. Expect many rivers to rise this week due to additional rain and runoff from Upper Michigan, with the greatest impacts expected on the Menominee River, where some locations may see major flooding during the mid to late part of the week. - Addtioanl rounds of rain and thunderstorms are expected at times Wednesday through this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 310 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 This morning... Stratiform rain will come to an end from west to east early this morning as a LLJ shifts east. Dry conditions will then prevail through the rest of the morning. Behind the rain areas of fog are expected to develop across much of the region with the lowest visibilities, under 1/2 mile, across northern WI. Severe storm potential late this afternoon/evening... Last nights MCS has layed-out out an outflow boundary along the WI/IL border early this morning. Persistent southwest flow south of the boundary will help lift this boundary north as an effect warm front through the morning and afternoon. CAMs generally show the boundary stalling along HWY 21 this afternoon with SBCAPES increasing to ~2000 J/kg south of boundary. This will provide the focus for convective initiation this afternoon, around 3-5PM. With cloud layer winds out of the southwest storms will cross over to the cool side of the boundary as they move into Fox Vally and east-central WI. This along with straight and elongated hodographs will lead to a large hail (1-2") threat. A damaging wind threat (gusts up to 60 mph) will also be possible this evening if storms grow upscale. Tornado threat will primarily be focused across southern WI where low-level lapse rates will be steeper beneath an eroding EML, however, any storms that can latch onto the boundary and take advantage of the increased low-leve shear may pose a tornado threat, greatest chance would be south of HWY 10. The greatest uncertainty with the severe threat is the positions of the effective warm front, as a shift further north or south would change the areas of focus for severe storms. Convection will also result in localized heavy rainfall. HREF probs show pockets of 50-70% chances for over 1" of rain across the central and east-central WI. With on-going flooding and saturated soils this will exacerbate both aerial and river flooding concerns. Rain and thunderstorms Wednesday-Monday... A surface low is forecast to lift into the western Great Lakes Wednesday bringing another round of rain and possible thunderstorms. There is uncertainty with how much instability will be able to recover from Tuesday evenings convection. Latest CAMs and ML/AI guidance shunts most of the instability south of the CWA. This would limit the severe threat, however, there is a 25-30% chance for another .5" of rain which would cause any ongoing flood concerns to continue. A more dynamic trough is slated to impact the region late Friday into the weekend bringing additional widespread rainfall and storms. The northward extent of greater instability is somewhat uncertain with this system, impacting severe weather potential, but this will be something to watch in the coming days. Drier and cooler weather is expected behind this system for early next week. && .AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance Issued at 613 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A blanket of LIFR status has developed across much of the region along with areas of fog creating locally reduced visibility under 1SM. Cigs should gradually rise this morning with most terminals becoming MVFR by early afternoon. Next round of rain and thunderstorms will lift into central and east-central WI late this afternoon (after 4PM). The best chance scattered severe storms will be south of an ISW to GRB to SUE line with large hail and damaging wind gusts the main hazards. Once storms depart (after 11PM) another round of fog and low clouds is expected into Wednesday morning. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 310 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 MRMS QPE from the last 24-hours shows a maximum of 4.5-5.5 inches of rainfall along an axis from Stevens Point to Bonduel with a more broad swath of 1-3" south of HWY 8. The result has been rapidly rising rivers and streams along with on-going flash flooding. An additional 0.5-1" of rain is expected across this area today which will only exacerbate flooding concerns. Runoff from snow melt in Upper Michigan is also still expected to bring moderate to possibly major flooding on the Menominee River, especially during the mid to late part of the week. If you live near a river or stream, keep a close eye on water levels this week and monitor the latest Flood Warnings from the National Weather Service in Green Bay. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for WIZ022-035>040-045- 048>050. && $$ DISCUSSION.....GK AVIATION.......GK HYDROLOGY......GK  532 FXUS61 KPBZ 141114 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 714 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Forecasts for the heat and possible record breaking temperatures remained largely in line with the previous cycle. The Marginal Risk for Severe Weather was expanded across the entire region Today. Storms today look to pose a primarily damaging wind threat, possibly in two separate waves. A Slight Risk for Severe Weather has been introduced to areas north of I-70 on Wednesday for what could be more of an all hazards severe weather day. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Anomalously warm temperatures this week. Daily record high max and minimum temperatures will be challenged and possibly broken, especially on Wednesday. 2) Increasing daily storm chances this week with a possible multi- day MCS event. Areawide marginal Risk of severe weather on Tuesday. 3) Severe risk continues Wednesday with a Slight Risk of severe weather north of I-70 and Marginal Risk between I-68 and I-70. Storm chances to continue Thursday as well. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... The ridge anchored across the Southeast and eastern Gulf continues to influence our weather through the week. At its strongest, the ridge will near 590dam (just over 2 standard deviations above normal for this time of year). This abnormally strong ridge will continue to support abnormally high temperatures (over 3 standard deviations above normal) across the region through the work week and possibly as late as Saturday. Our location on the northwestern side of the ridge will continue warm and moist southwesterly flow over the coming days. Locally, heat looks to peak on Wednesday, with 500mb heights hitting 580dam over the city and widespread 850mb temperatures between 14-16C, suggesting that unhindered mixing would see temperatures surge into at least the middle 80s. Probabilities of high temperatures over 80 degrees remain near and over 60% for areas south of I-80 each day from Tuesday- Thursday and then again on Saturday. Friday looks like heating may be interrupted by a rain-laden cold front pushing through the region. This could finally help shake up the pattern before models seem to indicate another Low moving through the Great Lakes early this weekend. Record high max and min temperatures look like they will be tied or set at several sites across our region, especially on Wednesday and Thursday. Daily rain chances look to be the only thing possibly keeping a lid on record challenging runaway heating. These chances are highest north, closer to the periphery of the ridge, and thus probabilities of record setting heat generally decrease from south to north. Each site features at least one day with a >40% chance to set a new record high and PHD (shortest climate record) features 3 days with >70% chance. Concurrently, each site also features at least 2 days with >50% chance of setting new record high minimum temperatures and PIT features 5 straight days with >65% chance of doing so. PIT features several "low hanging fruit" in this category with 3 such daily high minimum temperatures in the 50s. Our forecast for Wednesday lows may break the old record of 58 by a whopping 8 degrees. Minor heat risk continues areawide today through Thursday before retracting some on Friday. Heat impacts will primarily be felt by those who are extremely sensitive to heat and those without cooling/hydration. Speckled moderate risk areas continue to crop up Wednesday and Saturday and are expanding in area, mainly in the Ohio and Mon river valleys. KEY MESSAGE 2... We are at the beginning of what looks like it could be a multi- day MCS event across the Great Lakes and into our region. This pattern owing to our anomalously strong ridge feels much more like a June setup than an April one. Warm and moist southwesterly flow will set the table each afternoon for storms to fire along decaying or residual boundaries left over from the previous nights convection and renewed convection cresting the top of the ridge could press into the forecast area overnight starting the whole process again. This is the kind of setup in which each day could be at least a Marginal Risk day, but severe weather in the region is not a guarantee and model spread is quite large. This low confidence and high spread forecast is due to each day being largely dependent on what happens the night prior and morning of. As such, these will be difficult forecasts to pin down. An ongoing MCS across MI and WI will influence our local forecast today and then continued convection around the periphery of the ridge late this afternoon could impact us again late tonight. At this time, two possible shots at severe weather look in play for us today: 1. The ongoing MCS in WI and MI moves SE through the morning and storms begin to spark again in a rapidly improving thermodynamic environment somewhere across the eastern Ohio river valley early this afternoon. 2. Storms fire late this afternoon near the periphery of the ridge in Michigan, congeal into one or multiple line segments and advance SE towards us into a quickly worsening thermodynamic environment late tonight into Wednesday morning. Both scenarios represent possible severe weather threats but are very different and NEITHER are guaranteed to produce severe weather for us. The early afternoon severe may have a lower likelihood of occurrence requiring some breakdown of the ridge in place, but would have a much higher likelihood of severe. The late night storms may have a slightly higher likelihood of occurrence, but feature a more muted likelihood of severe, possibly with only scattered showers surviving that late and this far southeast. Thermodynamics are far more supportive of early afternoon convection, with the HREF mean CAPE field suggesting we could have between 750-1000 J/kg of CAPE collocated with 25-35 knots of shear. A reasonably more unstable solution (possibly representing a slower approach of the boundary), lying closer to the 90th percentile, could see CAPE values climb as high as 2000 J/kg largely in Ohio. If they occur, storms this afternoon would have a much better chance of being severe, featuring mainly a damaging wind threat. The hail and tornado threats look to be lower, with more muted lapse rates than yesterday's forecast cycle, less CAPE in the -20 to -30C range and relatively high LCL's. Hodographs still do show some low-level curvature depending on your model but it looks highly CAM dependent. Overnight, it looks likely that we decouple in a rapidly worsening environment. Several CAMs depict one or more bowing segments moving across southern MI towards us late tonight. These segments tend to move quicker than modeling suggests but would still likely not enter the region until after 2am or so. By this time it looks unlikely but still possible to see a damaging wind threat from these storms. SPC has expanded the Day 1 Marginal Risk to encompass the entire forecast area. KEY MESSAGE 3... The ridging and shortwave pattern and thus multi-day MCS event continues into Wednesday. Wednesday sees more impressive heating and increasing moisture advection in continued southwesterly flow. As such, model soundings feature well over 2000 J/kg of CAPE across much of the region, very impressive for our region in April. This comes hand in hand with a 5-10kt increase in shear when compared to Tuesday. These elements could allow for isolated to scattered super cellular structures to develop across the region or for a quick reinvigoration of any ongoing MCS/MCV left over from Tuesday night. Multi-day MCS propagation forecasting is very low confidence, with Wednesday's forecast highly dependent on Tuesday night. Storms on Wednesday look like they could bring all severe hazards, with increasing low-level moisture lowering LCLs and more robust CAPE at the SFC and in the -20 to -30C range. SPC has introduced a Marginal Risk to our region north of the Mason- Dixon Line and a Slight Risk north of I-70 on Wednesday. Storms look likely to continue on Thursday, but the pattern breaks down a little as a more meaningful SFC low moves through the Great Lakes. This could end the multi-day MCS event but could bring its own renewed chance for storms along the draping cold front. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR with a few isolated showers are expected through 15z, though a quick cu development within the MVFR levels around KBVI/KFKL/KDUJ can't be ruled out. Hi-res modeling shows greater consensus on a broken line of showers and thunderstorms dropping southeast through the area between 16z-23z. The lack of higher instability (mean values likely to be less than 1000 J/kg with its passage) kept TAF mention as lighter rain/restrictions in a thunderstorms with minimal gustiness. However, small sections could be strong enough to create MVFR cigs/IFR visibilities in heavier rain along with a gusty wind out of the NW (or whichever angle the line develops). Generally VFR with clearing post-convective cloud decks is expected by 00z and lasting through the end of the TAF period. Northwest PA near FKL/DUJ may see MVFR cigs develop due to moisture convergence amid moist return flow; additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms may also reach these locations by 12z from weakening clusters exiting the Great Lakes area. Outlook... The Upper Ohio River Valley will remain positioned near the upper ridge axis throughout the week and make it liable for multiple shortwave crossing to foster periodic showers/thunderstorms and precip-driven restrictions. A pattern shift is unlikely to occur until late Sunday into Monday before confidence becomes high again on a prolonged period of dry, VFR weather. && .CLIMATE... See below for record max highs and max lows this week: Today, April 15th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 86F (1883) 64F (1896) Wheeling, WV: 87F (1941) 60F (2014) Morgantown, WV: 86F (2018) 66F (2014) New Philadelphia, OH: 82F (2023) 56F (2006) Zanesville, OH: 87F (1941) 60F (1899) DuBois, PA: 86F (2023) 60F (2014) Wednesday, April 16th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 85F (1883) 61F (1967) Wheeling, WV: 82F (2010) 59F (2002) Morgantown, WV: 86F (1993) 65F (1967) New Philadelphia, OH: 82F (2010) 58F (2023) Zanesville, OH: 85F (1941) 61F (1972) DuBois, PA: 79F (2003) 56F (2002) Thursday, April 17th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 86F (2002) 63F (2017) Wheeling, WV: 86F (1945) 64F (2002) Morgantown, WV: 88F (2002) 64F (2012) New Philadelphia, OH: 85F (2002) 62F (2017) Zanesville, OH: 86F (2002) 65F (1912) DuBois, PA: 82F (2012) 59F (1976) Friday, April 18th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 87F (1896) 63F (1896) Wheeling, WV: 84F (2002) 64F (2002) Morgantown, WV: 89F (1976) 64F (1960) New Philadelphia, OH: 84F (2002) 60F (1982) Zanesville, OH: 88F (1896) 66F (1896) DuBois, PA: 83F (2002) 60F (2002) Saturday, April 19th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 90F (1896) 64F (1896) Wheeling, WV: 85F (2025) 63F (2002) Morgantown, WV: 92F (1976) 64F (2013) New Philadelphia, OH: 86F (1976) 57F (2019) Zanesville, OH: 92F (1896) 66F (1896) DuBois, PA: 87F (1976) 61F (2002) && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AK AVIATION...Frazier  335 FXUS64 KHGX 141115 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 615 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and humid conditions continue through the end of the week. Heat index values in the 90s at the end of the work week. - Rain chances increase over the weekend as a cold front moves into the region. - Seasonal conditions expected in the wake of the front going into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1105 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Tomorrow (or today depending on when you read this...whichever day April 14th is) is Look Up at the Sky Day. You can start to observe the holiday early by looking up at the sky early Tuesday morning to observe the International Space Station flying over Space City. This is highly dependent on the cloud coverage in your particular area during the 6:04am to 6:10am timeframe...which will be mostly cloudy for a lot of us. If you want to make an attempt at seeing it, look to the southwestern horizon around 6:04am. It'll be a bit low on the horizon though (max altitude of 32 degrees), so you might have to use your imagination. There will be plenty of blue skies to enjoy in the afternoon though as drier air filters in as southwesterly flow remains in place. Looking at 700mb, a pocket of much drier air moves in from the southwest on Tuesday (along with slightly warmer temperatures) leading to the development of a capping inversion aloft. This will keep rain chances slim to none for most of Southeast Texas through the end of the work week. Some under the cap light showers can't be ruled out during the afternoons. The main exception to the slim to no rain chances comes on Wednesday for portions of the Brazos Valley and the Piney Woods. As an upper level trough sweeps through the central CONUS midweek, it will aid in the development of storms off of a dry line over in western Texas. It's not entirely out of the question for a few storms to clip portions of the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods on Wednesday afternoon/evening especially with favorable placement of a jet streak (right entrance region) and a LLJ, but the storms will be fighting an uphill battle if they move this direction due to previously mentioned capping inversion. PW values begin to increase towards the end of the work week, so some isolated streamer showers cannot be ruled out. We'll still have that capping inversion aloft in place, so this potential is on the low side...but not exactly zero. Temperatures will be on an upward trend throughout the work week with highs in the low to mid 80s through midweek. By the end of the work week, 850mb temperatures increase leading to high temperatures peaking in the upper 80s. The probability of high temperatures reaching the 90 degree mark are low on Thursday/Friday, but they aren't zero! Either way, the increased low-level moisture will lead to heat index values in the low to mid 90s. Low temperatures will be mainly in the upper 60s to low 70s through the work week. Going into the weekend is when the forecast gets interesting once again as a cold front approaches. I personally would like to take credit for this cold front (assuming model trends hold) as I recently claimed that our next cold front would be in 7 months. Mother Nature is looking to prove me wrong and I will GLADLY take this L. An upper level trough with an embedded upper low will transition from the Pacific Northwest on Thursday to the Four Corners region by Friday. Surface low pressure subsequently develops through lee cyclogenesis near Oklahoma/Kansas. This low then travels northeastward towards the Great Lakes region, which pushes a cold front into Southeast Texas late Saturday/early Sunday. The exact timing is still a bit uncertain at this time, but there is good consensus on PW values surging near or above the 90th percentile (~1.57"). Showers and storms are likely along and potentially ahead of the frontal boundary as it pushes through the region. Showers may linger into Sunday. Northeasterly winds will be a bit breezy in the wake of the front, especially near the coast through Sunday. It's too early to be too specific on temperatures, but we can take a look at things probabilistically again! The probability of high temperatures below 80 degrees increases sharply to 70-90% for Sunday and Monday. The probability for low temperatures below 60 degrees increases to 50-70% for areas north of I-10 and 20-40% elsewhere for Saturday night. For Sunday night, these probabilities increase to 60- 90% for the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods and 20-50% elsewhere. There's plenty of time for the forecast to change and evolve, but the probabilities for seasonal temperatures are looking good! :D Batiste && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 612 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 MVFR and few pockets of IFR CIGs should scatter & lift later this morning/early in the afternoon. Gusty south to southeast winds are expected throughout the day, diminishing once again this evening. Expect another round of MVFR CIGs overnight with pockets of IFR CIGs possible early Wednesday morning. 03 && .MARINE... Issued at 1105 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow throughout the work week. There will be periods where winds increase to the caution flag threshold, especially Tuesday night into Wednesday morning and later in the work week. Due to the persistent onshore flow, slightly elevated water levels remain in the forecast throughout the work week as P-ETSS guidance continues to reflect water levels reaching 2.5-3.0 ft above MLLW during times of high tide. While coastal flooding is not a concern at this time, some wave run-up is certainly possible along Gulf-facing beaches along with increased risk of rip currents. A cold front and associated showers/storms are expected to push offshore late Saturday/early Sunday bringing a period of elevated offshore winds and seas that will likely prompt Small Craft Advisories through the remainder of the weekend. Batiste && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1105 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Still monitoring a few gauges that are either in or forecasted to crest into action stage in the Lavaca/Navidad River basin following Sunday's heavy rainfall event. The Navidad River at Sublime (SBMT2) is crested in action stage Monday afternoon/evening and has already fallen below action stage. The Navidad River at Morales (MRAT2) is forecast to crest into action stage early Tuesday morning, then fall out of it by Wednesday morning. Lastly, the Navidad River at Strane Park (LSNT2) is forecast to crest into action stage Tuesday evening, then fall out of it around Wednesday afternoon. These rises are based on routed flow from upstream. Remember that you can monitor updated river forecasts via the NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) Batiste && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 84 68 84 69 / 0 0 10 20 Houston (IAH) 84 70 85 71 / 0 0 10 0 Galveston (GLS) 79 73 80 74 / 0 0 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Wednesday morning for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375. && $$ DISCUSSION...Batiste AVIATION...03 MARINE...Batiste  806 FXUS63 KLBF 141115 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 615 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A warm front sharpens across the southern parts of the area today. Increasing chances for rain/thunder will develop to the north of this front late this afternoon and tonight. - Scattered showers linger Wednesday morning. Winds shift to the west to southwest during the afternoon. Elevated to perhaps near- critical fire weather concerns appear they will develop Wednesday afternoon. This is especially true west of Highway 61. - Fire weather concerns will increase Thursday with near critical or critical conditions possible. Additional fire weather concerns are possible Saturday afternoon, and again on Sunday and Monday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 313 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A rather complicated scenario today into tonight regarding precipitation chances. As a shortwave approaches the area, a warm front sharpens near the Nebraska/Kansas border this morning and attempts to lift northward into southern Nebraska. All indications are that it will not make it all the way to I-80, and winds will remain east to northeast to the north of the front. A narrow corridor of pooling moisture is noted just north of the front. Several of the CAMs fire at least some isolated convection in this area around the I-80 corridor late this afternoon. This evening as large scale large scale lift overspreads the area with the approaching wave, showers and isolated thunderstorms should become more numerous to the north of I-80 within an area of strong mid- level FGEN developing from southwest to northeast across the area north of the frontal boundary. MUCAPE/elevated values are on the order of 300-600 J/KG across the southern Sandhills and into southwest Nebraska through this evening. Shear is strong, and could see an isolated strong storm or two that produce small hail. Scattered showers linger though the morning hours Wednesday with the threat over by afternoon. A surface trough will mix eastward with humidity values falling rapidly by afternoon. Fire weather concerns appear they will be elevated to perhaps near-critical for areas west of Highway 83 and especially Highway 61. At this time it does not appear that winds will be strong enough to warrant a Fire Weather Watch, but this will have to be monitored closely. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 313 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A strong upper level trough of low pressure will dive southeast from eastern Washington into southern Idaho Thursday. East of this trough, a deepening surface trough of low pressure will develop from eastern Wyoming into northeastern Colorado. East of this feature, gusty southerly and south-southwesterly winds will develop by Thursday afternoon. Decent low level warm air advection will push highs into the lower 80s across the forecast area. Windy conditions will develop with a high likelihood of wind gusts exceeding 25 MPH per the latest NBM ensemble probabilities. Forecast soundings indicate even higher gust potential Thursday afternoon. The combination of gusty winds and highs in the 80s will lead to near critical to critical fire weather conditions across the area Thursday afternoon. The kicker here will be where the cutoff in low level moisture return resides. The latest EC soln, lifts a tongue of low level moisture into south central and eastern Nebraska Thursday afternoon with a dryline on the western periphery of this moisture tongue. Looking at the latest deterministic NAM12 soln tonight has this feature at 21z Thursday roughly along a line from eastern Frontier county, north-northeast into eastern Custer, then southeastern Holt county. With this location, min RH may be too high for a RFW. West of this line, there appears to be a high likelihood of RFW conditions for most of the forecast area Thursday afternoon. ATTM will continue to highlight this critical fire weather threat in the HWO. The upper level trough will move southeast into northeastern Utah Thursday night, forcing a strong cold front through the forecast area. This feature should pass through the forecast area by 12z Friday. Behind the front, highs Friday will range from the lower 40s in the northwest, to lower 60s in the east. Forcing for precipitation will be most favorable across northwestern portions of the forecast area Friday. This forcing will shift east Friday night into Saturday morning. With lows expected to reach into the 20s Friday night, snow will become the predominant ptype Friday night. Precipitation amounts appear light with this system across the forecast area as NBM ensemble probabilities are generally in the 20 to 30% range for exceedance of 0.10". Even if a tenth of an inch were achieved, any snow accumulations would be under an inch at best. Upper level forcing will quickly shift east of the forecast area Saturday morning. In its wake, gusty northerly winds and very dry boundary layer air will push into the area by Saturday afternoon. Even with forecast highs in the 50s the strong northerly winds and minimum RH of 15 to 20 percent may lead to near critical fire weather conditions Saturday afternoon. Across the western forecast area, the NBM initialized with some isolated pops Saturday afternoon. Looking closer, very steep lapse rates and negative, elevated LI's are present in the western half of the FA (per GFS soln). That being said, decided to leave pops for Saturday afternoon in this forecast package. Ridging will build into the Intermountain West Sunday forcing warmer air east onto the high plains. Highs Sunday will reach into the 60s to lower 70s with 70s to lower 80s for Monday. Dry conditions are expected through Monday with the next possible chance of precipitation late Tuesday/Wednesday-April 21, 22. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 615 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Skies will be broken to overcast over the next 24 hours. Ceilings will be VFR ranging from 10000 to 20000 FT AGL today and this afternoon, falling to 6000 to 12000 FT AGL tonight. There is a threat for scattered showers mainly this evening for both the KLBF and KVTN terminals. The greatest threat is from 00z to 06z Wednesday for the KVTN terminal and 02z to 08z for the KLBF terminal. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Taylor LONG TERM...Buttler AVIATION...Buttler  192 FXUS64 KLZK 141116 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 616 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 138 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 -Active pattern expected across the region...but only limited potential for thunderstorms/rainfall in Arkansas -First decent thunderstorm/rainfall potential for Arkansas late Wednesday night into Thursday morning -Next wave of thunderstorm/rainfall potential late Friday into Saturday as a cold front moves through the region -Cooler/drier weather expected late this weekend into early next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 138 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 An active weather pattern remains the main story through the next several days across the region...but much of AR remains on the ERN/SERN extent of most activity. Initially...only some small chances for isolated/widely scattered convection are forecast today/tonight...mainly for WRN/NWRN sections...with much better chances for more organized activity remaining west. Most areas of the LZK CWA should remain dry into Wed...with highs in the 70s and 80s. By late Wed into early Thu...upper level energy in the SW flow aloft will shift east slightly by Thu morning...with the potential for a bit more organized convection increasing further E/SE. Have increasing POPs for this as a result...with best POPs late Wed night into early Thu afternoon. Given the timing of this activity...the threat for strong/SVR convection looks relatively limited this time. Potential for precip decreases again for most locations late Thu into much of Fri as upper ridging moves over AR. By Sat/Sat night...an upper shortwave will drop SE across the Plains into the Great Lakes region...with a SFC cold front dropping SE across the Plains through AR. Expect increasing potential for convection with this SFC front as it passes SE through AR Sat. The potential for seeing any organized SVR Wx with this front looks fairly uncertain at this time. This will be due to either timing of the FROPA...and/or uncertainty in this timing and upper level features/SFC details. Cooler and more stable air will then settle across the region by late in the weekend into early next week behind this cold front. Temps will drop from the 70s and 80s...potentially some low 90s on Fri for highs...to the 60s and 70s behind the front. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 614 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR CIGs should become MVFR CIGs between 12-16z due to moisture advection/formation of stratus deck from the W and SW. CIGs should improve mid-day into the early afternoon on Tues. Winds will increase to 20-25 kts in the afternoon out of the S/SW. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 85 68 83 66 / 10 10 20 80 Camden AR 86 62 84 64 / 10 0 0 50 Harrison AR 83 67 76 62 / 20 40 60 90 Hot Springs AR 83 64 81 63 / 10 10 20 80 Little Rock AR 85 66 83 66 / 10 10 10 70 Monticello AR 86 65 85 66 / 0 0 0 20 Mount Ida AR 82 64 79 63 / 10 20 30 90 Mountain Home AR 85 67 79 63 / 20 30 50 90 Newport AR 86 68 85 66 / 10 10 10 70 Pine Bluff AR 86 64 84 66 / 10 0 0 50 Russellville AR 84 66 80 64 / 20 20 40 90 Searcy AR 85 65 84 64 / 10 10 10 70 Stuttgart AR 86 67 84 67 / 10 0 0 50 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....99 AVIATION...70  462 FXUS65 KRIW 141116 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 516 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Low pressure passing by will bring a low chance for showers again today, mainly for the western mountains, the Bighorns, and Casper Mountain. Accumulations will be minimal. - A more potent late winter system sweeps into Western Wyoming starting Wednesday and continuing through Friday. Ample cold temperatures will bring snowfall to most of the region, including lower elevations. - A hard freeze is expected east of the Divide Thursday night and Friday night. The likelihood of temperatures falling below 28 degrees is high (>90%), with temperatures possibly falling into the teens. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 145 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Finally a more active pattern across Wyoming trying to bring precipitation! The latest system is a trough ejecting into the central Plains from the Sour Corners region. This system is set a little too far south to bring a significant amount of precip, but still enough energy to produce precip for areas of Casper Mountain, the Bighorns, and higher elevations of the Tetons. But this does set the table for a potent late winter storm diving out of the PacNW into the northern Rockies. This system starts to spread precip into the NW mountains during the day Wednesday before slowly moving east Thursday and Friday. The system will be accompanied by ample moisture, so the potential for meaningful accumulations is improving. The system will also be accompanied by a strong push of colder air, so most precip will be snowfall, especially Thursday night into Friday. This includes most of the lower elevations as well, with the current forecast totals of 2 to 5 inches. Winter Storm Watches have been posted for the northwestern Mountains and YNP for this system, and may need to be expanded is the snow forecast increases with later updates. The other concern with this next system is the significant cold air push coming with and behind the next system. Cold temperatures will arrive during the day Thursday, with lows Thursday night in the low to mid 20s east of the Divide and in the teens west of the Divide. The main core of the cold air then settles in on Friday, with the core of the cold air setting in Friday night. Probabilities of temperatures falling below 28 degrees are high (>90%), with current forecast lows reaching the teens. The complicating factor will be how quickly cloud cover clears out behind the weather system, allowing for radiational cooling. If clouds hold longer, these teens would likely not be achieved. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 510 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 West of the Divide...KJAC/KRKS/KPNA/KBPI Terminals The main concern this morning is in vicinity of KJAC where evening snow showers have brought areas of fog, occasional IFR to LIFR ceilings will be possible until around 14Z this morning when fog should burn off with VFR conditions returning by 16Z. VFR conditions are expected to prevail elsewhere. There is around a 1 in 5 chance of a shower across southern Sweetwater County in vicinity of KRKS, but not enough confidence to include in the TAFs at this time. A gusty breeze develops after 16Z today at all terminals except KJAC with gusts over 20 knots possible. East of the Divide...KCPR/KCOD/KRIW/KLND/KWRL Terminals All terminals to be VFR through the period. Surface wind speeds are to be much less than those of the previous few days. After a morning lull, westerly wind of 15 to 25 knots mixes is likely at KCOD between 20Z-22Z on Tuesday, with KRIW seeing west- northwest surface wind of 15 to 25 knots developing after 22 to 23Z this afternoon. Otherwise, speeds remain 11kts or less at other terminals. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZLC and ZDV for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday evening through late Thursday night for WYZ001-002-012. && $$ DISCUSSION...Straub AVIATION...Hattings  639 FXUS64 KEPZ 141117 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 517 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 435 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Breezy to windy conditions again Tuesday, with at least some patchy blowing dust. Lighter winds for Wednesday. - Breezy to windy again Thursday into Friday with elevated to critical fire weather conditions. - The weekend will be cooler with a slight chance for rain on Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1003 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 The upper level trough that brought gusty winds and some patchy blowing dust to the region on Monday, will be slowly making its way across northern New Mexico on Tuesday, so we will see another round of gusty southwest winds and patch blowing dust. The winds may be just slightly slower than we saw on Monday, but not by much. On Wednesday we will be between systems so we will see less winds but Wednesday's high temperatures will run a few degrees below average. For Thursday and Friday, another upper level trough will approach the region and that will mean more winds. Winds both Thursday and Friday look to stay below advisory levels (30 to 40 mph), but the gusty winds could give us more patchy blowing dust. High temperatures both days will be at or a little above average. On Saturday a backdoor cold front will push slightly cooler air into the area. The high temperatures on Saturday will run 2 to 4 degrees below average. Then for Sunday, the southeast winds will help usher in some moisture so we will see a slight chance for rain on Sunday afternoon and evening, mainly east of the Rio Grande. High temperatures on Sunday will run 4 to 6 degrees below average. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 435 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions expected through the period. Breezy SW winds will develop once again this afternoon at 18-23 knots sustained with gusts to 28-33 knots. An AWW is in effect for KELP from 20Z to 04Z this evening. Winds will remain breezy through the evening, slowly decreasing after 03Z. Widespread blowing dust is not likely throughout the period. However, isolated instances of VIS dropping to 5 SM will be possible, confidence is low so no mention in TAF. Skies through the period will be BKN-OVC at 15-20 kft, becoming SCT-BKN through the afternoon and eventually SKC to FEW this evening and into the overnight timeframe. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 435 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 For Tuesday, upper level system over the Great Basin and Four Corners Region will overlay deep southwest flow aloft across the region. Decent mid to upper level sub-tropical jet will continue streaming in high level moisture across the region will scattered to broken clouds throughout the Tuesday period. That said, Min RH values will 10 to 15 percent across the lowlands along and west of the Rio Grande, 15 to 25-plus elsewhere. Temps this afternoon will be very similar to yesterday, trending a few degrees cooler. Breezy winds will develop during the afternoon out of the southwest at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 to 35 mph. Deep afternoon mixing will promote excellent smoke ventilation rates. Elevated to near- critical fire weather conditions will continue through the work week with very good to excellent smoke ventilation rates. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 52 77 51 84 / 10 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 48 75 46 81 / 10 0 0 0 Las Cruces 43 74 43 79 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 43 73 44 79 / 10 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 31 52 34 57 / 10 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 45 75 46 78 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 35 67 41 71 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 41 77 41 81 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 38 73 40 78 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 52 77 52 82 / 10 0 0 0 Dell City 47 78 41 84 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 53 82 48 88 / 10 0 0 0 Loma Linda 48 70 48 76 / 10 0 0 0 Fabens 51 80 47 86 / 10 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 46 76 45 81 / 10 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 50 75 51 81 / 10 0 0 0 Jornada Range 40 75 42 80 / 10 0 0 0 Hatch 40 78 41 82 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 47 78 46 83 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 44 74 44 79 / 10 0 0 0 Mayhill 37 65 37 70 / 10 0 0 0 Mescalero 33 62 36 67 / 10 0 0 0 Timberon 35 60 38 66 / 10 0 0 0 Winston 30 68 33 72 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 41 73 44 76 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 38 75 39 79 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 31 68 37 71 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 35 70 38 75 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 34 74 38 77 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 34 71 39 74 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 38 70 42 74 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 40 75 42 78 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 40 74 40 78 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 41 76 43 78 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 41 70 46 72 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...38-Rogers  641 FXUS63 KFSD 141118 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 618 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy and locally dense fog continues through this morning. Visibility below one mile in dense fog. Fog dissipates later this morning. - Periodic chances (20-60%) for showers and thunderstorms continue this week. Isolated strong to severe storms are possible late this afternoon through Wednesday east of Iowa/Minnesota Highway 60, although confidence is low in potential. - Elevated to near critical fire danger is expected Thursday with a break from rainfall, much warmer temperatures, strong winds, and low humidity. Winds may lead to elevated conditions Friday, although shower and storm chances may temper concerns. && .UPDATE... Issued at 329 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Fog and very low stratus continue to develop early this morning. So far, most visibility has remained above 2 miles outside the Chamberlain area (where visibility at the time of the discussion is down to around 1/4 SM). Model probabilities do show moderate (30- 60%) chances areas along the Buffalo Ridge and across northwestern IA to fall below 1 mile through this morning so will continue to monitor for potential headlines. Fog should mix out through the morning hours. Also seeing some returns on radar out across central SD, but have not seen any precipitation reports, likely due to the stout dry layer between the mid clouds and the surface/stratus. Forecast remains on track for the rest of today and into Wednesday. SPC has expanded the Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk back toward IA/MN State Hwy 60 for both today and Wednesday. Some uncertainty in development and timing, as guidance still mostly keeps the better forcing off to the southeast. However, recent runs of larger scale deterministic models are shifting the surface and low level fronts further north today, shifting that instability axis with it. Additionally, storms will need to overcome the cap once again. Storms late today may move out of eastern NE into our forecast area, and would be capable of large hail to 1.5 inches (ping-pong ball sized) and wind gusts to 65 mph. If there is a low level or surface boundary in play, a tornado is possible. Can't rule out a stronger storm into Tuesday night. For Wednesday, will have to wait and see how today plays out with convection with the better instability again off to our south and east. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 238 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Scattered thunderstorms are set to develop over the next few hours, bringing the potential for a few severe storms with large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two. As of 2 pm, a surface low is located over northern Nebraska with a warm front extending northeast of it across far southeastern South Dakota into northwest Iowa. Dew points in the 60s have been gradually spreading northward, and these higher dew points are expected to reach the I-90 corridor over the next couple of hours. This boundary will be the focus of initial storm development, with these storms having access to 35-50 kts of effective bulk shear and 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. There are questions though on how much some high clouds have limited the area from reaching full heating potential, but if a storm can get going then steep mid level lapse rates of 7.5-8.5 degrees C/km and mostly straight, elongated hodographs will favor large hail to around 2 inches in diameter or larger. The secondary threat will be damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph. If a storm can get rooted to the aforementioned surface warm front, then a tornado or two will also be possible. Can't rule out a strong tornado either, primarily over southwest Minnesota. As the low pressure system drift across the area, a few additional showers and storms look to develop farther south across northwest Iowa (down to about IA Highway-3, or just north of US Highway-20) within the warm sector around sunset. These storms could also be on the strong to severe side, with an isolated instance of quarter sized hail and 60 mph as the threats. Showers and storms will exit off to our east by the mid evening hours, leaving mostly quiet conditions in its wake. A few showers may develop in central South Dakota prior to daybreak Tuesday, but dry air should win out and prevent most if not all of this from reaching the ground. Patchy fog will also be possible by early Tuesday morning across portions of northwest Iowa and southwest Minnesota as winds turn light and variable overnight and ample moisture remains in place. Temperatures tonight drop mainly in the 40s, though some 50s are possible in our easternmost areas. Low chances for showers continue into the day on Tuesday, but activity is expected to remain spotty at best as rain continues to battle a dry sub cloud layer. Highs will range from the 60s northwest to 70s southeast. Rain chances look to increase Tuesday night into Wednesday as two shortwave troughs impact our area. The best chances of rain and storms look to be over northwest Iowa and adjacent areas of Nebraska, South Dakota, and Minnesota. At this time, severe weather looks unlikely with this system as the better instability looks to be off to our south and east. Rain and storms exit off to our east by Wednesday night, leading to a dry Thursday. Winds look to increase on Thursday especially west of I-29 closer to a deepening surface low, and winds may take on a southwesterly component especially in south central South Dakota. This could lead to another day with higher fire danger as temperatures will be warm and relative humidity values drop to 25% or below mainly along and west of the James River. Still some uncertainty into how breezy the winds will be, so keep up to date with the latest forecast. Not too much time to look into the extended forecast given the near term severe weather threat, but guidance is in fairly good agreement that the western trough will begin to move into our area by the end of the work week/early weekend. This could bring more rain and storms to our area on Friday and then colder weather into Saturday as guidance indicates a stronger push of cold air advection behind this system. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 612 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 MVFR and lower fog/stratus lingers through roughly 14-15z this morning. Once this lifts, expect a return to VFR conditions. Scattered showers and storms are expected later today and continue through the period; however, with uncertainty in coverage have continued to omit mention from all sites at this time. An isolated stronger storm is possible late this afternoon into tonight east of IA/MN Hwy 60, but confidence is low. Winds through the period will vary in direction, but remain on the lighter side with gusts topping out around 20 knots. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...SG DISCUSSION...Samet AVIATION...SG  802 FXUS63 KTOP 141118 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 618 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... -A similar setup to yesterday means another Red Flag Warning behind the dryline and a threat for severe storms east of the boundary today. -Another round of storms is possible Wednesday, mainly in far eastern KS. -A very dynamic system impacts the region Friday, bringing another threat for severe weather. -Much cooler weather is expected this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 344 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A similar setup to yesterday shows an area of low pressure and cold front near the KS/NE border and a dryline extending southward through central portions of KS this morning. The dryline will mix eastward today, causing extreme fire danger conditions again in north-central KS. RH will drop to less than 20 percent with southwest winds gusting 35 to 40 mph. This prompted the need for another Red Flag Warning for the same areas as yesterday. Ahead of the dryline will be another unstable air mass, especially where dew points remain in the 60s across far eastern KS. CAMs are more aggressive today in developing scattered convection ahead of the dryline this evening with some height falls aloft ahead of an approaching H5 wave. Given a similar environment to yesterday, characterized by nearly 3000 J/kg of MLCAPE and around 45 kts of effective shear, storms that develop will be capable of producing very large hail and a few tornadoes. Localized flooding could also occur, especially where heavy rain has occurred in the last few days. A more organized threat for severe storms could occur on Wednesday, mainly in far eastern KS as the H5 wave finally moves over the region, shunting a cold front into western MO. CAMs are in good agreement with storms developing along the cold front near or just southeast of the Kansas Turnpike, then quickly shifting storms in MO. But there could be at least a brief window for a few severe storms with large hail and damaging wind looking to be the main hazards. Thursday should be a day free of precipitation with the region in between storm systems. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s with lighter winds and sunny skies. A vigorous storm system will then approach from the west on Friday. Long range models still show some disagreement on the timing and placement of a strong sfc cold front and thunderstorm initiation, but there could be ample destabilization and deep layer shear in a strongly forced environment to produce severe thunderstorms. Much cooler conditions can be expected behind Friday's fast moving system for the upcoming weekend. We may even have to consider frost/freeze headlines for overnight low temperatures. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 616 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Southerly winds remain gusty today, with gusts of 30 kts common through midday and early afternoon. Scattered storms could develop late this afternoon or early this evening. Have included a PROB30 group at all terminals to account for this possibility. Confidence in exact placement and timing of storms is still not overly high, especially since storms could be scattered in coverage. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 345 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Another Red Flag Warning has been issued for today in north- central KS due to low RH and strong south-southwest winds behind the dryline. These conditions will combine to create extreme fire danger again this afternoon. Minimum RH behind the dryline could quickly fall to below 20 percent as dew points drop. South-southwest winds will be sustained at 15 to 20 mph with gusts as high as 40 mph throughout the afternoon. Improvement in conditions is expected tomorrow with higher RH's and lighter winds in central KS. For today, however, burning should be avoided. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008-KSZ020-KSZ034. && $$ DISCUSSION...Teefey AVIATION...Teefey FIRE WEATHER...Teefey  394 FXUS63 KABR 141118 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 618 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mostly dry through late Thursday. - Temperatures 15 to 25 degrees above normal Thursday (Highs: low 70s to low 80s) and low humidity. This and south winds 25 to 30 mph results in High/Very High Grassland Fire Danger. - Colder Friday/Saturday. Saturday high temperatures 10 to 20 degrees below normal (Highs in the 40s). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1217 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Surface high to the north continues to feed cool stable air into the region around midnight. As such, upslope favored areas with this wind trajectory will again see fog/stratus expand over the next few hours. Towards morning, the pressure gradient is much weaker, winds gradually organizing around to westerly as a surface low lifts northeast across North Dakota. 850mb temperatures are coolest today, ranging between +3 to +9C from northeast to southwest respectively. Will give temperatures a slight bump above deterministic NBM which falls about 3-4 degrees below the NBM mean given the favorable mixing direction, with the expectation that shallow low clouds/fog also mix out with these light west winds. We fall under the influence of a very weak surface high tonight, and on the backside, winds shift back to southerly for Wednesday. We start to see milder air moving in late Wednesday, with the core of the warmest air overhead for Thursday, though with a front positioned just to our northwest. Its another interesting temperature forecast for Thursday with the deterministic NBM again falling close to the 10th percentile for high temperatures, about a difference of 8 degrees between that and the mean. Deterministic model 850mb temperatures run from +16 to +19C with the Canadian being a distinct cool anomaly. The surface flow is around a low that develops over Wyoming with an inverted trough/warm front extending up northeast across South Dakota. This provides for a favorable mixing environment with southwest winds south of the boundary. The big question here is where does this surface feature set up with the main deterministic models having a pretty tight thermal gradient across northwest South Dakota to south central North Dakota and any wobble in the next several runs could translate this gradient elsewhere, and as such could result in a forecast or forecast adjustment bust. Will leave NBM temperatures alone Thursday for now. A side note in regards to these conditions, it is interesting how deep mixing is depicted in NAM BUFKIT profiles, up to approximately 12kft out by Pierre, 10kft for KMBG and 8kft for KABR! Shallow high/surface based altocumulus may result but there is limited CAPE above the deep surface boundary layer, and a substantial dry layer. All this above the 0C layer as well. So maybe add the option for some additional gustiness with dry/snow microburst. That surface low translates southwards, bringing much colder air back into the region for Thursday night/Friday. We go from 850mb temperatures a standard deviation above climo, to a standard deviation below climo for Saturday. Forecast temperatures reflect this with about a 35F drop between Thursday and Friday/Saturday. Precipitation will be pretty meager for the next few days. A mid level deck is depicted in the NAM across south central and far eastern South Dakota today with a deep dry layer. We also see precipitation chances in the NBM increase Friday, as a trough deepens to our west. Most of the model QPF appears to come on the backside of the system as the surface low has moved off well to the east. GFS BUFKIT profiles hint that a deep stratus layer accompanies the change in airmasses, though if this is the case then we'd be looking at more drizzle/sprinkles type precipitation. And while NBM POPs are quite high, overall the QPF is from a few hundreds to maybe 2/10ths. GEFS is in line with this thinking with just a few members showing moisture greater than a tenth of an inch. NBM probability of 0.25 inches or greater is only about 40% across the northern tier of the state, to around 20% from Pierre to Watertown. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 618 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG Morning fog has fallen to around 1SM at ABR, but improved to 5SM or higher at other sites at least temporarily. IFR ceilings at ABR/ATY will improve to MVFR to VFR by 15Z as the lower ceilings. 10kt or less winds will continue through the period. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for SDZ004-005- 007>011-016-017-019-020-034-036-037. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...07 AVIATION...06  788 FXUS64 KBRO 141119 AAB AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 619 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 612 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Key Messages: - Breezy conditions will continue this week. - A moderate risk of rip currents will likely to prevail through the week. - Temperatures will continue to warm through the week, with a cool down late this weekend. - Unsettled weather will return this weekend in association with a cold front moving through Texas. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1013 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 High pressure over the Gulf into the southeastern US will maintain warm, breezy, and dry conditions through the week. Temperatures will continue to warm, reaching the 90s for much of the region by Thursday. Coastal areas will remain in the upper 70s into the 80s. As we head into the weekend a cold front will move through Texas bringing with it another chance of rain and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon through Monday. The aforementioned front will move through Deep South Texas on Sunday which will also be the day for our highest rain chances (35-50%). Cooler temperatures are expected in wake of the front, with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s on Sunday and mid 80s on Monday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 612 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A mixture of VFR to MVFR ceilings are expected for the TAF period. While some MVFR ceilings are expected for the next couple of hours, as the southeasterly winds pick up, so should the ceilings as well. This will allow for generally VFR conditions to take over for the rest of the daytime hours. As mentioned before, the southeasterly winds could gust up to 30 knots today. Winds should weaken again tonight. && .MARINE... Issued at 1013 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Generally favorable marine conditions are expected on the waters off the lower Texas coast with moderate winds and wave heights. Could see some caution conditions each afternoon, mainly on the Laguna Madre and nearshore waters due to a locally enhanced pressure gradient. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 86 73 87 73 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 89 70 89 69 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 92 74 91 74 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 93 73 92 71 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 79 73 80 74 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 84 71 85 72 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...68 LONG TERM....68 AVIATION...64-Katz  171 FXUS63 KUNR 141119 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 519 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... -Mild through Thursday -Dry most places outside of NW SD today through Wed -Critical fire weather conditions, mainly along and south of I90 today, and again possibly Wednesday and especially Thursday -Much colder and unsettled for the end of the week with rain and snow possible by Friday for parts of the area && .UPDATE... Issued at 956 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Current sfc analysis shows NW-SE oriented frontal boundary sagging across the CWA with temperatures ranging from the 40s across northwestern SD and northeastern WY to the upper 50s across southwestern into south central SD. Winds across the southern tier of the FA have diminished while humidities rise as temperatures cool off, ending critical fire wx conditions across the area. A few strong to marginally severe storms popped up over northwestern SD this afternoon but that activity has dissipated as upper level impulse pushes to the east of the region. Regional radar shows shower activity in western ND with CAMs indicating some showers are possible across far northwestern SD through the overnight hours. In addition to the showers, forecast soundings show a fairly shallow moist layer over northwestern SD. Thus, have painted in some light PoPs and mentions for patchy fog for far northwestern SD from now until ~09z. Upper trof pushes into the Central Plains tomorrow with the bulk of the forcing and moisture passing to the south of our CWA, though a few light showers can't be ruled out over southern SD during the day on Tuesday with diurnally driven showers over the Black Hills Tuesday afternoon. && .DISCUSSION...(This Afternoon Through Sunday) Issued at 1055 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Central Rockies upper trough will continue to shift east with another stronger trough dropping into the Pac NW. This will support warm and mainly dry weather through most of Thur. Dry SW flow is ongoing across the southern half of the FA. Rockies trough will semi-split with the northern portion supporting a few showers and isolated TS across the far NW this afternoon/evening. However, the rest of the FA will remain dry. Compact jetlet, associated enhanced bulk shear and marginal CAPE may support an isolated strong storm on the southern flank of expected convection today, with small hail and gusty winds. Cool front starts to progress east into the area tonight. The southern portion of the trough will shift east Tues, barely skirting the southeast third of the FA, with maybe a shower or two in southwest to scentral SD. Enough instability may be present over the BH to also support a few showers there with diurnal heating. Shower chances will linger into Wed across scentral SD, as the trough moves fairly slow across the Central Plains. Mild weather will continue through Thur as WAA ensues ahead of the next upper trough Wed, which will advect SE in westerly flow out of the Pac NW. This system will force a strong cold front into the region Thur, with strong CAA and wind expected. However, this trough will split, with limited precip amounts outside of perhaps northeast WY and maybe far SW SD, effectively leaving much of western SD with little to no precip. After a couple days below normal, things quickly then warm back up next week as the next trough drops into the western CONUS and WAA spreads to its east. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Wednesday Morning) Issued At 516 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. More rain showers are expected this afternoon and evening, mainly from the Black Hills area into south central SD. Local MVFR conditions are possible in the heavier precip. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued At 1055 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Gusty southwest winds, extremely dry air, and lack of appreciable green up will support critical fire weather conditions this afternoon mainly along and south of I90. A red flag warning remains in effect into this evening. The most critical areas will be in SW SD where RH will drop to 10 percent with winds gusting to around 45 mph in the afternoon. A cool front will drop into the area tonight with winds diminishing and RH's recovering. Mild on Tue and Wed as an upper level trough skirts south of the area. However, low RH and breezy winds may support critical fire weather conditions once again on Wed and especially Thur in the same locations. A strong cold front will move into the region Thur, with chances for rain and snow Friday, mainly across northeast WY. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ UPDATE...Wong DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC AVIATION...15 FIRE WEATHER...JC  288 FXUS64 KCRP 141121 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 621 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 619 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Moderate risk of rip currents and periods of minor coastal flooding will persist, increasing towards the end of the week - Very warm to hot conditions and predominately dry through the end of the week across South Texas - A cold front is forecast to move through the region late this weekend && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 209 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Mid-level flow across the region will generally remain southwesterly through much of the forecast period as broad mid-level high pressure persists over the eastern Gulf with several mid-level disturbances and troughing over the western CONUS. A series of weak shortwaves will track well north of the region, keeping South Texas dry for much of the remaining week. At the surface, an elongated high over the western Atlantic will expand over the eastern Gulf and maintain a persistent onshore flow regime through the week, strengthening around the end of the workweek ahead of our next cold front. This will support moisture advection and will promote increasing PWATs with the GEFS ensemble mean reaching 1.75" this upcoming weekend. Another cold front is progged to move across South Texas sometime Saturday/Sunday morning with increasing rain chances (low to moderate) due to above normal moisture but a persistent cap will likely limit vertical development. Lower rain chances may persist into next workweek. Subsidence across the region and stable conditions the rest of this workweek will combine with periods of partly cloudy skies to keep temperature trends above seasonal norms, with highs generally in the mid to upper 80s along the Coastal Bend and upper 80s to mid 90s inland. Overnight lows will generally range from the upper 60s inland to the mid 70s along the coast. Expect cooler conditions behind the front with mid to upper 70s across much of the region Sunday and Monday afternoons. A Moderate rip current risk and potential minor coastal flooding are likely to continue this week driven by persistent onshore flow, longer-period swells up to around 8 seconds, and 4-6 foot wave heights. PETSS guidance has increasing levels heading into the weekend with astronomical tides as we approach a new moon on April 17th. Conditions will continue to be monitored and additional Minor Coastal Flood Advisories may be issued as needed. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 619 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A mix of MVFR/VFR conditions are expected this morning before all sites return to VFR by mid-morning. Winds will increase once again late this morning and continue through the afternoon with gusts to 30 knots at times. With confidence increasing since the last forecast, introduced MVFR ceilings for tonight starting between 04-08z. && .MARINE... Issued at 209 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A Moderate to Fresh (BF 4-5) onshore flow will persist through the week with periods of strong (BF 6) flow. Winds will back to a northeasterly flow with the front, increasing to Fresh to Strong through late this upcoming weekend with Small Craft Advisory conditions likely. Rain-free conditions expected through the end of the workweek but rain/storm chances increase to low to moderate as the front moves across the waters. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 209 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Fire weather concerns remain generally low due to increased low- level moisture promoted by persistent onshore flow and elevated humidity. However, inland areas-particularly across the western Brush Country-may experience afternoon minimum RH values dropping into the 30-40% range during the latter half of the week at times with warmer temperatures and moderate onshore winds (10-20 mph). Despite these factors, abundant moisture and ERC values in the 20- 25th percentile range and RFTI values near or at zero will limit fire weather potential. As a result, elevated fire weather conditions are not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 83 71 83 71 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 84 68 85 69 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 93 72 90 71 / 0 10 10 0 Alice 88 70 88 70 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 82 73 83 73 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 92 71 89 70 / 0 0 20 10 Kingsville 86 70 86 71 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 80 73 80 74 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BF/80 AVIATION...JCP/84  660 FXUS65 KABQ 141121 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 521 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 459 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Hazardous crosswinds will create difficult travel for large and high-profile vehicles this afternoon and again Thursday and Friday mainly across eastern NM. - Critical fire weather threatening rapid fire spread from any new spark returns to NM today and Thursday mainly across northeastern and east-central NM, and a majority of the state Friday. - A hard freeze is forecast Friday night into Saturday morning across the western and northern third of NM. Take precautions to protect early blooming plants. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 1233 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Unsettled weather continues over the Desert Southwest, highlighted by a 557dm H5 low swirling just east of Las Vegas, NV tonight. Anchored by a sampled 95kt 250mb jetmax on its southeastern periphery, this upper low is bringing convective showers and high elevation snow across northeastern AZ and northwestern NM. Rainfall amounts and snow accumulations will be light and favor west facing slopes of the Chuska and Tusas Mts tonight and early Tuesday morning. The main sensible weather impact will be from strong southwesterly winds currently over the high terrain of central and western NM, but forecast to spread to areas along and east of the central mountain chain Tuesday afternoon. Aided by deep vertical mixing tapping into H7 winds of 35 to 45 kts and a 997mb MSLP surface low over southeastern CO, peak gusts at the surface of 35 to 50 mph will threaten hazardous crosswinds for area highways of eastern NM. A Wind Advisory will be hoisted Tuesday afternoon for these favored areas including the Sacramento Mts (Ruidoso) and areas along and north of I-40 and along and east of I-25, also including Curry and Roosevelt Counties. Rapid fire spread from any new sparks will be possible in these areas as well, see Fire Weather Discussion. Much of the Rio Grande Valley from Socorro to ABQ to Santa Fe and Taos will be stuck in between the unimpressive precipitation to the northwest and stronger winds to the east Tuesday. Winds calm Tuesday night with drier conditions moving in, which will allow for Wednesday morning low temperatures to bottom out near or below freezing for many western and northern areas. Warmer temperatures in the upper 30s and 40s hold onto the middle and lower Rio Grande Valley and eastern plains. Breezy to locally windy conditions are forecast Wednesday. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 1233 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Thursday sees the next Pacific storm system cross into the northwestern CONUS bringing increasing southwesterly winds to NM. Temperatures warm up alongside another bout of hazardous crosswinds for area highways for high profile vehicles Thursday afternoon. Numerical model guidance favors this system opening to a trough with its axis crossing NM Friday. Strong southwesterly to westerly winds will be favored Friday, with widespread gusts of 35 to 45 mph and peak gusts to 50+ mph across the central highlands and northeastern plains will be favored. Any precipitation with this late week system will favor areas to the north in the CO Rockies, leaving much of NM hanging out to dry. A sharp switch to much drier and colder northwesterly and northerly winds will be ushered in behind a potent cold front late Friday. This sets the stage for a sharp cool down Friday night into Saturday morning. There is a high probability for a hard freeze across the western and northern portion of the state, with lows near freezing in Albuquerque and the middle Rio Grande Valley. This will threaten many outdoor plants that underwent their early green up back during March's unprecedented heatwave. Temperatures warm up Sunday after another morning freeze across the western and northern thirds of the state, alongside a modest uptick in moisture arriving Monday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 459 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 An upper level storm system is crossing the Four Corners region this morning, bringing MVFR and localized IFR conditions to the area. Will maintain TEMPO groups for lowered visibility and ceilings at KFMN and KGUP thru to 13Z and 14Z. LLWS continues for areas along and immediately east of the central mountain chain, but this will lessen thru the morning as stronger southwesterly winds expand to lower elevations. Widespread gusts of 25 to 30kts can be expected from late morning thru the afternoon today, with locally stronger gusts of 35 to 40kts along and east of the central mountain chain. Winds subside past sunset as the main storm system begins to exit the region. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1233 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Strong southwesterly winds gusting to 35 to 50 mph alongside marginally critical humidity will produce critical fire weather conditions for areas along and east of the Sangre de Cristo and Sandia/Manzano Mountains Tuesday afternoon. Fine fuels in some areas of the east-central plains may have greened up a bit from last week's localized heavy rainfalls, notably in Roosevelt and Curry Counties. Meanwhile, elevated fire weather conditions will stretch westward into the Rio Grande Valley where winds will be a bit less and humidity a bit higher. Northwestern NM will receive colder temperatures alongside light valley and mid-elevation rain and high elevation snow. Another round of critical fire weather conditions returns Thursday after a brief respite from the winds Wednesday. Very dry southwesterly winds pick up Thursday yielding at least elevated fire weather conditions areawide, with critical favoring the northeastern plains where the strongest winds gusting to 35 to 45 mph will reside. These conditions spread to a majority of NM Friday afternoon as wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph spread alongside humidity falling to near or below 10 percent yet again. The strongest gusts of 45 to 50+ mph will favor the northeastern plains and central highlands again. A potent cold front associated with the main storm system passing just north of NM over the CO Rockies will usher in a sharp cool down behind northwesterly and northerly winds Friday night and Saturday morning. Due to the storm system's forecast track, any precipitation will stay north of the state line with few exceptions in the Tusas and northern Sangre de Cristo Mts Friday. Winds abate Saturday with temperatures warming back up Sunday and higher humidity arriving Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 59 34 67 35 / 40 10 0 0 Dulce........................... 54 21 62 22 / 80 10 0 0 Cuba............................ 57 29 61 31 / 40 5 0 0 Gallup.......................... 56 23 65 25 / 50 5 0 0 El Morro........................ 55 29 61 32 / 10 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 61 26 67 28 / 10 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 60 29 63 30 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 65 36 66 38 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 59 31 62 34 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 65 26 70 29 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 69 30 74 34 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 47 21 54 25 / 90 10 5 0 Los Alamos...................... 57 35 60 38 / 20 5 5 0 Pecos........................... 60 31 62 35 / 10 5 5 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 53 29 57 32 / 20 5 5 0 Red River....................... 45 24 48 28 / 20 5 10 0 Angel Fire...................... 52 18 54 21 / 10 5 10 0 Taos............................ 58 24 62 25 / 20 5 5 0 Mora............................ 59 29 60 33 / 10 5 5 0 Espanola........................ 65 32 68 33 / 20 5 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 60 35 62 38 / 10 5 5 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 63 33 65 35 / 10 5 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 68 42 68 44 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 70 39 70 41 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 72 38 73 38 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 69 40 70 42 / 5 0 0 0 Belen........................... 74 35 73 35 / 5 5 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 70 39 71 41 / 5 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 73 34 73 34 / 5 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 71 39 72 40 / 5 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 73 36 73 36 / 5 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 65 40 66 43 / 10 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 69 40 70 41 / 5 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 76 40 75 40 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 63 37 63 39 / 5 5 0 0 Tijeras......................... 64 37 64 40 / 5 5 0 0 Edgewood........................ 65 33 65 34 / 5 5 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 67 29 66 28 / 5 5 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 63 32 62 35 / 5 5 0 0 Mountainair..................... 67 33 65 35 / 5 5 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 66 34 65 36 / 0 5 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 69 40 68 41 / 5 5 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 62 38 61 40 / 5 5 0 0 Capulin......................... 65 29 62 32 / 0 0 10 0 Raton........................... 67 28 66 29 / 0 0 5 0 Springer........................ 70 30 68 30 / 0 0 5 0 Las Vegas....................... 63 31 64 34 / 5 0 5 0 Clayton......................... 74 39 70 42 / 0 0 5 0 Roy............................. 69 35 67 36 / 0 5 5 0 Conchas......................... 78 38 76 38 / 5 5 5 0 Santa Rosa...................... 74 39 71 39 / 5 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 81 42 77 42 / 5 5 0 0 Clovis.......................... 80 45 76 44 / 5 10 0 0 Portales........................ 81 45 78 43 / 5 10 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 79 41 76 39 / 5 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 83 47 80 43 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 74 41 73 41 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 71 39 71 37 / 5 5 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ104-123-125-126. Wind Advisory from noon today to 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ223-226>236-240. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...24  878 FXUS65 KPSR 141122 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 422 AM MST Tue Apr 14 2026 .UPDATE...Updated Aviation Discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Weak high pressure will settle back into the region today into Wednesday leading to drier conditions and eventual warmer temperatures. - Breezy to locally windy conditions are expected Thursday and Friday with elevated Fire Weather conditions focused across the Lower Colorado River Valley. - Above normal temperatures should return by early next week with lower desert highs warming into the low to mid nineties. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A weakening upper level trough is currently moving through the Desert Southwest with the low center across northwest Arizona moving northeastward into Utah. A trailing trough axis is also moving through central Arizona with isolated light showers lingering from north Phoenix into the Mogollon Rim. These showers should move out of our area by sunrise leaving clearing skies and plenty of sunshine for the rest of today. A cooler post-frontal air mass will help to keep daytime highs from reaching 80 degrees across the south-central Arizona lower deserts to at most the lower 80s across the western deserts. Weak upper level ridging is then forecast to move through the region on Wednesday helping to boost temperatures back into at least the mid 80s, or within the normal range. Drying conditions later today and on Wednesday will also lead to surface dew points dropping back into the 20s for most locations. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... By Thursday, a large Pacific weather system is slated to move southeastward through the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin leading to height falls over our region and an increasing pressure gradient. Breezy to locally windy conditions are likely to affect much of the area starting Thursday afternoon and again on Friday as the system moves by just to our north. Advisory level winds may also be possible, particularly across southeast California and the Colorado River Valley. Near normal temperatures Thursday are forecast to dip on Friday as the NBM/WPC shows highs back into a 80-85 degree range. Stronger ridging is then favored to build across the Western U.S. over the weekend pushing daytime highs to near 90 degrees Saturday and then into a 90-95 degree range for Sunday and next Monday. The weather pattern through at least the first half of next week should support continued dry weather along with at least one more weather system passing by to our north creating breezy to windy conditions. && .AVIATION...Updated at 1120Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: Spotty -SHRA activity lingers mostly to the east of the Phoenix airspace early this morning, with skies clearing west to east. Anticipate winds to favor a westerly component through at least early this evening, with speeds peaking during the afternoon around 8-10 kts and some higher gusts into the mid teens possible. Periods of variability cannot be ruled out between now and 17Z, however, confidence is low that a full easterly wind shift will occur this morning. Winds this evening will eventually switch out of their typical nocturnal E/SE directions. Mostly clear skies will prevail through the TAF period, but cumulus are likely to become prevalent over the northern AZ higher terrain during the afternoon. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Wind speeds will generally remain AOB 10 kts through the TAF period at both terminals, under SKC skies. Confidence in wind directions is low at KBLH, though a north/northeast component looks to be favored during the afternoon. Winds at KIPL will vary between west and northwest, with periods of variability, especially late this afternoon into this evening. A period with westerly gusts into the mid to upper teens cannot be ruled out at KIPL late this evening into the early overnight hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... A weather system will exit the region today with only lingering chances for isolated light showers across the eastern Arizona high terrain this morning. Weak high pressure and drying conditions will prevail for the rest of today through Wednesday with overall light winds. MinRHs will dip to between 15-20% today and 10-15% on Wednesday as overnight recoveries become poor to fair starting tonight at 30-50%. Another passing weather system late week will likely bring increased winds and even lower RHs resulting in the potential for elevated fire weather conditions on Thursday and Friday. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kuhlman LONG TERM...Kuhlman AVIATION...Whittock FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman  037 FXUS65 KGJT 141123 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 523 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler, wetter weather settles in today through Wednesday morning. Sloppy travel conditions are expected above 9,000 feet. - Sub-freezing temperatures are expected for some valleys early Wednesday morning. A Freeze Watch is in effect for the susceptible areas. - After a brief mid-week warm up, colder and unsettled weather returns to the region Thursday night into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1105 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Models are in good agreement with each other and with satellite imagery for the most part. One notable difference is that the satellite imagery shows the shortwave over southeastern Idaho to be deeper, down into the H500 and even H700 levels, and a more wrapped up low than the open wave depicted in the models. Light isolated to scattered showers are increasing in coverage as they move through eastern Utah and Western Colorado. To the west over western Utah, closer to the low, coverage is more widespread with embedded isolated thunderstorms. Look for this activity to start moving into our region around midnight and increasing through the overnight as showers and thunderstorms spread northeast across region. With the low tracking to the northeast across the region through the morning hours, pushing east of the Divide in the afternoon, showers and thunderstorms will diminish through the afternoon and evening with only a few lingering showers mostly through the central Colorado mountains overnight into Wednesday. There is no real defined front with this system, but with cold air advection aloft widespread precipitation, temperatures will cool about ten degrees from Monday's highs, or to five to ten degrees below normal for mid April. With skies clearing out overnight Tuesday, temperatures in many of the lower valleys will drop below the freezing mark. Because there is still uncertainty with the morning low, continued the Freeze Watch across eastern Utah and Western Colorado late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. COLDER SYSTEM FRIDAY AND COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER BEYOND: Wednesday and Thursday will bring a brief warm up, but Thursday will see another round of gusty winds ahead of the next system, another low pressure system that drops in from the Pacific Northwest. This next system looks to have a strong cold front associated with it with temperatures falling 15 to 25 degrees behind the front leading to a hard freeze possible Saturday morning. It's too soon to say how much snow this system will produce, but snow may drop into the lower valleys behind the front. Stay tuned through the next few day as we sort this out. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 522 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Scattered to widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms will lead to a complex forecast over the next 12 to 18 hours. A mixture of VFR and MVFR conditions are in place and expect temporary to PROB30 chances of IFR/LIFR are possible as heavier showers and lower clouds develop. Things do not look to begin to improve until mid to late afternoon with a return to VFR prevailing at most TAF sites again by 15/00Z. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Wednesday morning for COZ001-002-007-008-011-020>023. UT...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Wednesday morning for UTZ024. && $$ DISCUSSION...DB AVIATION...TGJT  018 FXUS64 KMOB 141123 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 623 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 621 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Moderate to extreme drought, with little to no rain over the next 7 days, will exacerbate wildfire activity. - Patchy to areas of fog development, some of which could be dense, is possible over the next few nights. - A moderate rip current risk is expected for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches through midweek. && .UPDATE... Issued at 215 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Current observations and satellite imagery suggests fog has started to expand across the areas mainly north of I-10. Looking at probabilistic guidance, most of the area is flirting in the 60 to 80% of visibilities less than 1/4 mile after about 4 am through around 9 am. As a result, we have wen't ahead and issued a dense for advisory for our area. This looks to be mainly confined to our area underneath the surface high. Fog should quickly mix out after sunrise. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1243 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Light southerly surface winds will occur through the week as a surface ridge remains intact across the southeast states and much of the Gulf. Atmospheric moisture will remain very low despite the southerly winds off the Gulf with PWATs generally ranging from one- half to eight-tenths of an inch. We should see a slight uptick in moisture on Thursday with PWATs nearing one inch as a shortwave moves east across the Tennessee River Valley, but no rain is expected for our area due to a lack of forcing and deep moisture. In fact, the atmosphere above 810mb remains impressively dry due to strong subsidence under the upper ridge that has gripped our region. The next large upper trough will exit the Rockies on Friday and move over the Great Plains to the Mississippi River by week's end. There are no timing differences between the ECMWF and GFS at this time, but the ECMWF does have a higher amplified trough over the eastern CONUS on Sunday compared to the GFS, with the base further south. We could see some isolated to low-end scattered showers and perhaps a storm or two Saturday night into Sunday as a cold front associated with the upper trough passes through our area. Most of this precipitation will likely be confined to areas northwest of I-65 as the line is expected to quickly dissipate. The light southerly wind flow mentioned earlier persisting all week does maintain some boundary-layer moisture across our area that should result in patchy to areas of late night/early morning fog over the course of the week. Visibilities are expected to lower to between 1 to 3 miles across much of the area late overnight into early morning, with patchy dense fog not being ruled out. Due to low confidence in the specific locations potentially being impacted by areas of dense fog, we will just need to see how thing unfold before needing any Dense Fog Advisories. High temperatures inland will reach the middle 80s today through Thursday and likely reach the upper 80s on Friday and Saturday. These highs will be about 5 to 10 degrees above normal today through Thursday and 7 to 12 degrees above normal on Friday and Saturday. Lows inland will be in the middle 50s to around 60 degrees tonight and in the upper 50s to lower 60s Wednesday night through the remainder of the week. Coastal lows will range from 60 to 65 degrees tonight and then in the middle 60s through the remainder of the week. Cooler temperatures will occur early next week behind the frontal passage with highs on Sunday in the middle 70s to lower 80s, with lows Sunday night dipping into the upper 40s to middle 50s. Beach Forecast: A Moderate Risk of rip currents is expected to continue through Friday. /22 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 621 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 LIFR to VLIFR conditions mainly north of I-10 across interior southwestern Alabama and southeastern Mississippi will gradually improve throughout the morning to VFR. Elsewhere VFR conditions should remain throughout the forecast with a light southerly wind. Another round of LIFR to VLIFR visbys will be possible after midnight tonight as fog re-develops over many of the same areas. BB-8 && .MARINE... Issued at 215 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow is expected through the forecast. Winds look to turn northerly and increase behind a cold front on Sunday into Sunday night. BB-8 && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 104 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Looking at fire weather concerns over the forecast area, with drought conditions, and dry fuels, a Moderate Risk of a Significant Fire Potential is in effect through the week. Winds remain light enough and afternoon relative humidity values a bit too moist to hoist a by the criteria Red Flag Watch/Warning at this time for the next few days. Still, playing this by ear. /16 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 82 61 83 64 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 79 63 79 65 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 77 65 77 66 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 87 55 87 56 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 86 57 86 61 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 85 56 85 59 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 85 57 86 56 / 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for ALZ051>060- 261>264. FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for FLZ201-203- 205. MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MSZ067-075- 076-078-079. GM...None. && $$  787 FXUS64 KAMA 141124 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 624 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1213 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Elevated to critical fire weather conditions expected today through Friday due to breezy/gusty winds combined with dry conditions. - Low chance for isolated severe storms in the east to southeastern TX Panhandle this afternoon into evening. - A potentially strong cold front late Friday can bring frost to freezing conditions to much of the panhandles this weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday night) Issued at 1213 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 See fire weather section for detail on the expected upcoming elevated to critical fire weather days. A weather system is currently swinging eastward across the desert southwest which will cause strong gusty winds across the panhandles during the daytime. For today we can expect the southwest winds to gust mainly in the 40s to 50s mph range. Such winds can make travel difficult especially for high profile vehicles. The trajectory of this system is keeping the winds out of the southwest today driving in much drier surface air. The dry air will most likely encompass much of the panhandles only stopping when it meets moist air in the southeast Texas panhandle. This would setup a dry line that has a low chance of sparking off afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms. There is a further low chance for these storms to become strong to severe capable of producing tornados, large hail, and damaging winds. It is questionable that the storms will be able to become strong enough fast enough to produce those impacts within the panhandles. Instead the storms could form over the panhandles before moving into Oklahoma proper before they become severe. Since much of the panhandles will instead see dry and windy conditions critical fire weather conditions are the larger concern so be sure to see the fire weather section. Wednesday the weather system ejects across the southern plains and then moves quickly off to the east. This would server to weaken the pressure gradient over the southern plains leading to weaker winds for the panhandles. Still the direction of the winds will remain southwesterly to westerly which will continue to drive in dry air from the desert southwest. Even with this dry winds limited mid level moisture can continue to linger in the southeastern Texas panhandles. This still allows for a very low chance for high based rain showers and thunderstorms during the early afternoon hours. If these storms form they would still produce more winds than rain. Otherwise the passage of the weather system will bring a small dip in the temperatures. This would make Wednesday mainly a warm and sunny day for much of the panhandles. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 1213 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Thursday and Friday the next weather system swings southeasterly across the intermountain west towards the Great Plains. This has a high chance of making the weather system the dominate weather feature across the southern plains during this time. This will setup a dry southwest flow across the southern plains during this time. The weather system will have a high chance of causing robust winds across the panhandles for both days. The combinations of these two factors would lead to another round of elevated to critical fire weather conditions across the panhandles for both days. Still the trajectory of this system has a low chance of drawing up limited moisture into the southeastern panhandles late on Thursday and more so on Friday. This moisture will allow for a low chance of afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms with there already being hints that some storms can be strong. Saturday the weather system has a moderate to high chance of ejecting out of the intermountain west and moving across the Great Plains. In doing so it would pass a cold front north to south across the panhandles most likely early Saturday. This would stream in cooler air across the panhandles leading to a large drop in the temperatures. If the cold air arrives fast enough then Saturday morning can see frost to freezing temperatures in the northern panhandles. There is a higher chance for Saturday night into Sunday to see more widespread frost to freeze conditions across much of the northern and central panhandles. For early next week the weather system is more likely than not going to depart off to the east with a ridge building across the southern plains. This would draw away the cooler air bringing an increase in temperatures that would cease the risk for frost or freezing weather. Conditions would most likely remain dry under the ridge lending the risk of fire weather conditions for early next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 622 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions at all terminals and across the Panhandles for the next 24 hours. Today, we'll see strong southwest winds during the daytime hours at all terminals. While the winds may loft some dust and cause some haze this is unlikely to lead to any visibility impairment. These winds will persist until the evening when the weaken for all terminals. Later tomorrow morning, wind speeds will even become light and last that way through the end of the 12Z TAF period. Rangel && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1213 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Today will have widespread strong and gusty southwest winds during the late morning through afternoon. The direction of the winds will remain fairly steady from the southwest through today. Today the sustained winds will be 20s to 30s mph range with the the gusts in the 40s to 50s mph range. This is keeping dry air across the panhandles causing today's min RH to bottom in the teens %. This is creating widespread critical fire weather conditions with RFTI's in the 4 to 6 range with patchy higher RFTI being possible. There is a low chance for thunderstorms in the eastern panhandles this afternoon that can cause localized stronger and erratic winds. These storms can also cause fire starts through lightning as well. Today the weather conditions will be ripe to allow for easy fire starts and rapid spread of any fire that does manage to start. Wednesday can see mainly elevated fire weather conditions across much of the panhandles due to it being very dry. This day will have min RH down to single digits to low tens across much of the panhandles. However the lack of stronger winds will prevent critical fire weather conditions. Although some patchy critical fire weather conditions cannot be ruled out for the far southern Texas panhandle. Further critical fire weather conditions have a high chance of occurring across the panhandles come Thursday and Friday. This will be caused by robust southwest winds and dry conditions across the panhandles. There is the potential for Thursday and Friday to see even worse fire weather conditions that today. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>020-317. Wind Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001-002-006-007-011-012-016-017-317. OK...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001>003. Wind Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001-002. && $$ SHORT TERM...98 LONG TERM....98 AVIATION...55  462 FXUS64 KTSA 141125 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 625 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 620 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - A window for higher-end severe weather potential exists today (Tuesday) into Wednesday. - Warm, humid, and breezy southerly flow continues for much of the week. Most days will have at least a low chance of precipitation. - Another chance of showers and thunderstorms, some potentially severe, is expected during the day Friday to Saturday before cooler air arrives behind a cold front. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Tuesday Night) Issued at 1137 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Quiet, mild, and breezy weather will persevere overnight tonight and through Tuesday morning. Will maintain very low PoPs (around 10%) area-wide through around midday, with an isolated shower/storm possible. For what its worth, high resolution models (CAMs) show the highest chances of light precipitation occurring in the terrain areas of southeast OK and northwest AR, where orographic lifting may produce a few showers/storms. Most locations should remain dry through at least noon Tuesday. Around midday, a positively tilted mid-level trough will begin to center itself over the Rockies. Low/mid-level ascent and upper- level divergence will overspread the region. At the surface, a sharp dryline will remain anchored across western OK. This dryline is forecast to orient itself more southwest to northeast by the afternoon. Latest CAMs suggest there may be isolated convection west of the forecast area early in the afternoon, but more robust convection is anticipated to initiate along the dryline in central/north-central OK late in the afternoon before moving into the forecast area early in the evening. Exact coverage of storms is still a little nebulous at this time, but current thinking is isolated to widely scattered storms will move into eastern OK around or just before sunset, with best overall severe potential near and north of I-44. A plethora of instability, deep layer shear, and moisture will be in place for the potential of all severe weather hazards, including large hail, damaging wind gusts, and isolated tornadoes. In fact, the atmosphere will be primed for long-track supercells to take place if cells are able to stay discrete. Despite a capping inversion trying to develop after sunset, the tornado threat will remain in place through at least mid-evening as a 40-50 knot low-level jet develops north of I-40, keeping low-level shear elevated. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will continue through the late evening and overnight hours, but at this time, the severe threat is expected to trend lower as storms continue to shift into far eastern OK and northwest AR and away from the better support for strong/severe storms. Another breezy and mild night is forecast Tuesday night, with overnight lows generally in the mid-60s. Mejia && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 1137 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A very similar, unstable weather setup will occur on Wednesday. The mid/upper-level trough from Tuesday will move over the Plains on Wednesday afternoon. Instability, moisture, deep layer shear, and lift will all be sufficient or more than enough for all severe weather hazards to occur, especially during the late afternoon and evening hours. There is still some uncertainty on how things evolve Wednesday and may or may not depend on what happens Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Models show a couple of weak perturbations ejecting ahead of the main trough axis mid-late Wednesday morning, sparking convection across eastern OK and northwestern AR through the early-mid afternoon hours. Models show an uncapped environment with these storms and they would have the potential to become severe. But the main severe potential is still expected to occur late afternoon into the evening as storms initiate off the dryline, which will be situated across central/north-central OK. Better details on the severe weather setup on Wednesday to come over the next 24 hours. The aforementioned trough will finally exit Thursday morning/afternoon. Very warm and humid conditions will continue Thursday and Friday, with afternoon high temperatures reaching the low-mid 80s both days. Another potent upper-level storm system will approach from the west on Friday, introducing the next opportunity of precipitation and will also bring additional severe thunderstorm opportunities to the area during the afternoon and evening. Details are even more indefinite with this system and more information will be added over the next few days. A cold front will push through the forecast area on the backside of the the departing storm system Friday night into Saturday morning. Precipitation chances should end by Saturday afternoon, with dry weather through at least Sunday night. Much cooler and drier weather is anticipated behind the front on Saturday, Sunday and even through the first part of the upcoming workweek, with temperatures dropping closer to seasonal average. Low-end precipitation chances may creep back into the forecast next Monday afternoon/evening as a weak and subtle wave approaches from the west. Mejia && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 625 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 MVFR cigs should scatter out or become VFR this afternoon. The latest CAM guidance suggests NE OK, and especially KBVO, stands the best chance for storms through tonight. Used TEMPO at KBVO and PROB30s at the other NE OK sites. Also used some PROB30 mention over in far NW AR toward Wed morning with some hints of showers or isolated storms there. MVFR cigs are expected to return to some sites toward the tail end of this forecast. Lacy && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 84 67 77 62 / 50 70 80 60 FSM 84 67 80 64 / 20 50 70 90 MLC 82 66 77 64 / 40 70 80 70 BVO 86 64 78 57 / 50 60 70 60 FYV 82 64 76 61 / 20 60 70 90 BYV 83 66 77 62 / 10 60 70 90 MKO 82 65 76 61 / 40 70 80 70 MIO 83 65 75 61 / 50 70 80 80 F10 82 64 76 62 / 50 70 80 60 HHW 81 65 77 64 / 20 30 60 80 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...67 LONG TERM....67 AVIATION...30  667 FXUS65 KPIH 141126 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 526 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quieter Weather Today: Expect a temporary break in widespread weather today, though isolated showers persist in the Eastern Highlands. - High-Impact Wednesday: A potent storm system brings widespread moisture and high winds, with gusts of 40–45 mph likely across the Snake Plain. - Significant Late-Week Cold: Temperatures plummet Wednesday night. Thursday and Friday will be notably cold with highs in the 30s and 40s and light snow possible on valley floors. - Hard Freeze Likely: Widespread lows in the 20s are expected Friday and Saturday mornings. Due to the early start of the growing season, Freeze Watches/Warnings may be issued to protect vulnerable crops. - Rapid Weekend Recovery: Conditions dry out by Saturday with a significant warming trend returning temperatures to the 60s by Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 141 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A brief reprieve in widespread activity arrives today as the region sits between weather systems. While most of the area will remain dry, high-resolution guidance suggests a few lingering, isolated showers remain possible across the Eastern Highlands throughout the afternoon. This window of relative quiet will be short-lived; a robust weather system is expected to push into the Central Mountains early Wednesday morning, with precipitation chances increasing steadily from west to east as the day progresses. This midweek system appears to be a significant moisture producer for all of Eastern Idaho. Beyond the precipitation, Wednesday is slated to be the windiest day of the week—particularly for the upper Snake River Plain—with gusts of 40–45 mph likely requiring a Wind Advisory in future forecast packages. A strong cold front will sweep through the region late Wednesday into Thursday morning, dropping snow levels rapidly to all valley floors. A much colder air mass will settle in behind the front, driving Thursday's highs into the upper 30s and low 40s—a sharp 15-degree drop from Wednesday. Recent model trends suggest Thursday and Friday may be even chillier than previously anticipated. These plummeting temperatures, combined with persistent gusts of 30 to 40 mph, will create a significant raw chill. Consequently, light snow reaching valley floors is increasingly likely starting Thursday morning. While valley accumulations are expected to be minor (an inch or less), more impactful snow is forecast for the higher terrain, where winter weather headlines may be necessary. The secondary, and perhaps more significant, impact of this cold air mass involves local agriculture. Widespread sub- freezing temperatures are expected Friday and Saturday mornings, with lows dropping into the 20s across primary growing regions and the teens elsewhere. Although it is early in the season for frost/freeze products, the unseasonably warm winter has accelerated plant growth, making it necessary to issue Freeze Watches or Warnings to protect vulnerable crops. Lingering mountain precipitation will persist into Friday, though the region will slowly dry out over the course of the day. Looking ahead to the weekend, ensemble guidance indicates the cold upper-level trough will begin to exit the region. As high pressure builds by Saturday, temperatures will trend back toward seasonal normals before climbing well above normal by Sunday, with 60s likely returning to valley locations. Looking into next week, models suggest another disturbance may approach the Pacific Northwest, with moisture potentially returning as early as Monday. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 521 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Early morning satellite imagery and surface observations show areas of low stratus impacting the Snake Plain terminals. Satellite trends suggest that KBYI is next within the next hour or so. This should lead to some prolonged MVFR CIGs that are currently forecast to linger until late morning before some gradual clearing is expected. Once again, winds will increase in the valley terminals to around 15-20 kts by midday but it does look like there won't be much precip to contend with today aside from perhaps an isolated shower chance around KDIJ later this afternoon. Late in the period, clouds will be on the increase as we start to feel the effects from our next weather system. KSUN will be the first to see lowering CIGs and increasing precip potential as it gradually overspreads the rest of eastern Idaho just beyond 15/12Z. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...McKaughan AVIATION...McKaughan  679 FXUS64 KLUB 141128 CCA AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Lubbock TX 628 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 551 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - A dryline will bring chances for severe storms to areas off the Caprock Tuesday, with dry and windy conditions west of the escarpment. - Critical fire danger is expected Tuesday afternoon for western portions of the Caprock which have not seen beneficial rainfall over the past week. - Storm chances continue through early Friday, mainly off the Caprock, with drier and cooler weather expected for the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 428 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The previous thinking in the short-term discussion below remains on track, but trends in high-resolution guidance have shown an increasing potential for the development of supercells this evening (00Z/7 PM CDT and beyond) across portions of the Rolling Plains. As the dryline begins to translate westward after 00Z, intensification of the low-level jet will occur atop a corridor of strengthening convergence along the retreating dryline. These mesoscale interactions would serve as the impetus for the initiation of surface-based supercells this evening, and if this comes to fruition, then storms may pose a risk for tornadoes across the Rolling Plains into the night. Some of the recent forecast soundings have indicated inflow-layer storm-relative winds intensifying to near 35 kt amidst dewpoints in the middle 60s this evening, the latter of which are already present in the Rolling Plains per recent WTM data. Retreating drylines at night in the presence of low-end windy conditions, such as the case this evening, are worth keeping an eye on when it comes to the potential for tornadoes. Sincavage && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Tuesday night) Issued at 1024 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Water vapor imagery late Monday evening highlights a belt of moist and unsettled southwest flow aloft in place over the West TX region, a pattern which will persist through the short term period as a compact mid/upper level low moves over the Four Corners. The dryline will continue to retreat westward through the rest of the overnight, and will position roughly from Denver City to Plainview to Memphis by sunrise. Overnight storms look unlikely, but we could still see an isolated cell or two develop over the southeastern Rolling Plains during the early morning hours as a modest low level jet focuses within a pocket of elevated instability. The dryline will mix eastward after daybreak Tuesday, especially on the Caprock where moisture will be quite shallow. Another warm and breezy to low end windy day will result west of the dryline as deep mixing taps into ~35kt flow at 700mb and up to 65kt at 500mb, which combined with the warm conditions will result in critical fire danger on the Caprock for areas which have not benefited from rainfall over the past week or so. Despite the strengthening flow aloft, the dryline is expected to slow its eastward progression once it moves east of the Caprock Escarpment given deeper moisture in place there, with dewpoints likely to remain above 50F over most of the Rolling Plains and SE TX Panhandle Tuesday afternoon. In general, it still appears the dryline circulation itself will be relatively weak Tuesday. However, convective temperatures will be easily within reach, and slightly better large scale forcing for ascent compared to Monday should result in a bit higher coverage of storms along and east of the dryline on Tuesday afternoon. Within the moist sector, forecast soundings depict MLCAPE values near or above 1500 J/kg, along with bulk shear magnitudes nearing 50kt. This will be sufficient for a few severe storms Tuesday afternoon over the Rolling Plains and SE TX Panhandle capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts, although this should be a relatively early show with strong flow aloft kicking storms to our east by early evening. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 1024 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Wednesday is expected to be a relatively quiet and warm day as the above-mentioned upper trough exits into the central plains states, with dry westerly surface flow pushing most appreciable near-surface moisture and associated storm chances to our east. That being said, a subset of guidance does keep the dryline barely over our eastern zones, so will maintain low storm chances over the eastern edge of the Rolling Plains through late Wednesday given uncertainty in the dryline positioning. Southwest flow aloft returns by Thursday as the next upper trough deepens over the Great Basin, which will bring enough near-surface moisture northward to result in mainly nocturnal storm chances Thursday night into early Friday courtesy of a strengthening low level jet. However, this period of southwest flow aloft and associated precipitation chances will be relatively short- lived given the progressive nature of the upper trough, which is progged to quickly shift eastward with the trough axis set to be over the Dakotas by early Saturday. This evolution will send a cold front southward through our area sometime in the late Friday to Saturday period, with good consensus among models indicating a drier and cooler period through at least the first half of the weekend. Return flow looks likely to reestablish Sunday and beyond with ensembles in decent agreement bringing low chances for showers and storms back to the region by early next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 551 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Winds will continue to steadily veer towards the southwest and become strong this afternoon, with frequent gusts to 30-35 kt expected at KCDS, KLBB, and KPVW. BLDU will be possible at KLBB and KPVW, but VSBYs will remain VFR. Severe-caliber TSTMs may affect KCDS this afternoon and evening, with the PROB30 group being maintained with this TAF cycle. Expect localized reductions to CIGs and VSBYs should TSTMs impact KCDS. Winds will gradually diminish overnight into Wednesday morning, with VFR otherwise. Sincavage && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1024 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Strong southwest winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 45 mph are expected across most of the Caprock on Tuesday afternoon. Combined with RH values in the 15 to 20 percent range, RFTI values of 3 to 5 appear likely over the southwestern TX Panhandle and western portions of the Caprock on Tuesday. Critical fire weather conditions are therefore expected in this area given the lack of recent beneficial rainfall compared to locations farther east. Therefore, a Red Flag Warning is in effect from noon to 8 PM Tuesday for the SW TX Panhandle and western Caprock. A Fire Danger Statement is in effect for areas farther east near the edge of the Caprock where slightly higher RH is expected in closer proximity to the dryline. Areas off the Caprock (especially the Rolling Plains) are expected to remain relatively humid east of the dryline, and fire weather concerns will be relatively low for these locations. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>025-027>030-033-034-039. Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>023-027>029. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...09  645 FXUS64 KMRX 141129 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 729 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 727 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Well above normal temperatures expected through this week into the first half of the weekend. Record highs are possible. - There are limited chances precipitation through the forecast period, with little relief from the worsening drought and fire weather conditions. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 228 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A large ridge of high pressure will remain over the Gulf and SE CONUS at least into the first half of the weekend, keeping moisture very limited over our area and temperatures well above normal for this time of year. Significant cloud cover Monday helped to hold temperatures down a bit, but today and Wednesday will bring fewer clouds, more insolation, and higher temperatures as highs make a run at records both days. Low RH values will be of concern for fire weather interests, bottoming out in the 25-35% range both today and Wednesday for most locations, but for the most part SW winds will not be higher than the 5-15 mph range. Models show the ridge being suppressed on Thursday/Thursday night as a mid/upper level short wave trough crosses the region, although it will still be very warm. The NBM has been trending higher with rain chances, which are now in the chance range for all but the far southern portions of the area in the late Thu/early Thu night time frame. The NAM is more aggressive as is often the case, but overall model/ensemble data suggests moisture will be limited and the better convective energy will be to our west. Some weakening convection will likely approach from the west, but it is still questionable how much will make it into our area. Tempering any expectations for significant rainfall with this system looks prudent for now. The ridge will build back Friday behind the short wave. High temperatures will be at least approaching records both Friday and Saturday. Better rain chances may arrive for Saturday night into Sunday as models show a deeper trough developing over the Plains that could push a cold front through our area as it moves east, but these details are still in flux so uncertainty is high for how much precipitation we may see. It does look a bit cooler at the end of the period as highs should be back closer to normal for Sunday and Monday. Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 04-14 87(2010) 86(1887) 85(1938) 88(2017) 04-15 87(2006) 87(1936) 85(1945) 86(2024) 04-16 89(2002) 87(1896) 87(2002) 88(2002) 04-17 91(1955) 90(1896) 85(2002) 88(1955) 04-18 90(2002) 90(1896) 87(2002) 89(2002) 04-19 91(2002) 90(1941) 90(1941) 90(2002) && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 727 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions prevail. Mid to upper level clouds expected for the first half of the period will transition to mostly clear skies tonight. Southwesterly winds around 10kts late morning into the afternoon. Gusts near 20kts most likely at KTYS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 87 59 88 60 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 84 59 86 60 / 10 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 85 57 86 58 / 10 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 82 55 84 58 / 10 0 0 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...99 AVIATION...KRS  149 FXUS65 KCYS 141130 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 530 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered rain and snow showers in Carbon and Albany counties this morning may result in a few slick spots along the I-80 corridor and accumulating snow above about 8500 feet in elevation. - A strong but compact system will bring a chance for rain to the High Plains, mainly Tuesday afternoon and evening. - Warmer and drier weather returns for Wednesday and Thursday, bringing elevated to critical fire weather conditions and marginally high winds in the wind prone areas. - A potent weather disturbance will produce windy, colder, and wetter weather for Thursday night and Friday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 200 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A weak upper-level trough and associated vort max will slide through the CWA today. This feature and its associated energy will increase the threat of precipitation, first across our western zones and then east/northeastward throughout the day. The suite of deterministic hi- res models depict this activity, albeit a bit disorganized and not with the greatest consensus. Because of this, forecast confidence is low due to this disagreement in solutions. In addition, modeled soundings show that the lower atmosphere is dry which will play a role if precipitation actually hits the ground. With all this being said, if you drew a line from Douglas to Chadron, south of this we have generally a 50% chance of precipitation. The greatest threat will be along I-80 from Rawlins to Sidney. At the latter parts of today, near Sidney, some guidance is showing the potential that there could be a few rumbles of thunder. However, instability parameters are meager at best and confidence if this will actually happen remains low. Peering into the world of ensemble guidance, probs greater than 60% of a location getting a tenth or more of liquid precipitation remains across the higher terrain west of Cheyenne and the Nebraska Panhandle. While here locally, unfortunately, Cheyenne has a 40-60% chance of a tenth of liquid precipitation. For the higher elevations, including Laramie, snow showers are a possibility with little to no accumulations expected. Locations above 8K feet may see a few inches of late season snowfall. This system and any precipitation will exit the CWA by Wednesday morning, then expect a quieter day along with plentiful sunshine throughout Wednesday. Switching gears a bit, lets take a look at temperatures and winds. First temperatures, with 700mb temps in the 0 to -2C range, expect highs this afternoon a tad cooler then previous days with 50s west of I-25 and mid 50s to mid 60s east of the I-25 corridor. And Wednesday, with clearing skies, 700mb temps warm up a bit into the +2 to +4C range, translating to a few degrees warmer across the board. Low temps will reflect a similar pattern, cooler Tuesday night (generally in the 30S) and near 40 for Wednesday night. Regarding winds, mid-level winds today are nothing to write home about, so expect surface winds generally less than 20 mph across the CWA. By early Wednesday morning, the 700mb jet picks right back up to near 50 knots, with the peak over the Laramie Range. However, per the GFS, subsidence is meager so these winds may not mix down to the surface. In-house guidance agrees, and shows generally less than 40% of high winds for our known wind prones along I-25 and I-80. This threat, albeit slim, will be all but over Wednesday afternoon/evening as winds across the region once again will be on a downward trend. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Thursday night-Friday...A progressive and sharp trough aloft and its associated cold front move from Idaho and Utah Thursday evening, to western Wyoming late Thursday night, with the cold front passing our counties Thursday night. The trough axis aloft tracks across our counties during the day on Friday. Fairly high confidence in scattered to numerous rain and snow showers spreading from west to east Thursday night, with likely to widespread snow showers Friday afternoon. Much cooler and windy on Friday with maximum temperatures in the mid 30s and 40s. Winter weather highlights may be needed for the mountains and nearby locations. Saturday...Snow showers will gradually end from west to east early in the day, as the shortwave trough aloft moves into the northern Great Plains states. Strong low and mid level northwest flow will help produce a windy day, with possible high winds for our wind prone locations. Somewhat warmer than Friday with 700 mb temperatures near 6 Celsius. Sunday...The flow aloft weakens as low amplitude shortwave ridging aloft develops over Wyoming, producing dry conditions and mild temperatures in the upper 50s and 60s with 700 mb temperatures near 2 Celsius. Monday...Ridging aloft moves over our forecast area, with surface lee troughing over our eastern counties, producing a dry and mild day. 700 mb temperatures near 8 Celsius will yield maximum temperatures in the mid 60s west of I-25, with 70s east of I-25. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 530 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Tricky TAF forecast over the next 12 hours with a system moving through the region, due to poor run to run model consistency. KRWL and KCDR may miss the bulk of the storm and remain VFR through this TAF period. Overall, low confidence in coverage of precipitation, so there are PROB30 groups for KBFF and KAIA. Initially, KCYS and KSNY have PROB30 groups, but since these terminals are closer to the storm, confidence grows with precipitation impacting aviation operations. KLAR, overall, has the best chance of seeing precip, some of which will be snow. Thunderstorms are possible for KSNY this afternoon/evening, if one goes over the terminal, expect gusty and erratic winds. After 03Z Wednesday, conditions will improve as the storm system moves out of the region. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RZ LONG TERM...RUBIN AVIATION...RZ  425 FXUS66 KLOX 141132 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 432 AM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .SYNOPSIS...13/755 PM. Showers over the area have diminished, with just a few isolated light showers this evening. Dry and warmer weather is expected for the remainder of this week. Gusty northerly winds will affect much of the area on Thursday, shifting to northeast and becoming focused over Los Angeles and Ventura Counties on Friday. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...14/1233 AM. Clear skies and a cool airmass will lead to below normal lows early this morning. Skies will be sunny, save for a grip of upslope clouds along the north slopes near the Kern County line. Plenty of sunshine and rising hgts will bring 3 to 6 locally 8 degrees of warming to the area today. Max temps across the csts/vlys will end up mostly in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Look for advisory level wind gusts to develop across the western portions of the Santa Ynez range and the SBA south coast. A weak ridge will be over the area on Wednesday. Hgts will rise to about 573 dam. At the sfc there will be weak onshore flow to the east and weak offshore flow from the north. There will likely be some morning low clouds with the best chance across the Central Coast. Skies will be partly cloudy in the afternoon as some mid level clouds work their way through the ridge. Max temps will not change much Tuesday's values. The northerly offshore flow will continue Wednesday night. The winds across the SBA south coast will be a little weaker and may not reach advisory levels, but there will be an uptick in the winds through the i-5 corridor. A weak eddy is forecast to bring Low clouds and fog the LA and VTA cst as well as the San Gabriel Vly - this is a pretty low confidence fcst given the northerly offshore push and would not be surprised if the low clouds stay more to the south. An inside slider will start its journey down the CA/NV line on Thursday. Hgts will lower to around 568 dam. Sfc grads will not change much with offshore flow from the north and onshore flow to the east. The northerly offshore flow will bring a few degrees of warming to the csts and vlys, but will cool the far interior by dragging in cooler air from the San Joaquin Vly. Most max temps will end up a degree or two blo normal. .LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...14/234 AM. As is typical with the passage of an inside slider, a Santa Ana wind event will set up. About 4 mb of offshore flow will develop from both the N and E. There is not much upper level support to help the gradients out, but even so there will likely be low end advisory level gusts in the windier locations. Downsloping winds will bring 3 to 5 degrees of warming to most of the csts and vlys. The absence of cool air advection will allow the interior to warm 2 to 4 degrees. Due west flow moves in at the upper levels on Saturday. There will still be 2 to 3 degrees of offshore flow in the morning, but with no upper support it will only generate sub advisory canyon winds. Max temps will continue to warm with the offshore flow and 3 to 5 degrees of additional warm seems likely. This will bring max temps up into the upper 70s to mid 80s for most of csts/vlys which is 4 to 8 degrees above normal. The pattern will shift on Sunday as a large upper low moves closer to the Pacific NW. Srn CA will not feel the effects of the low, but the switch to onshore flow will bring a chc of coastal low clouds along with 2 to 4 degrees of cooling across most of the csts and vlys. Mdls and ensembles continue to struggle with the strength and location of the upper low on Monday. The AI-mdls favor the GFS solution of a slower and colder track. Right now the algorithmically adjusted blended ensemble forecast brings only a slight chc of rain to the north of Point Conception. The AI- solutions along with the GFS would favor a better chc of rain across most of the area. Still its 7 days away and there will be plenty of time to seek mdl convergence. No matter what happens with the rain it will be a much cooler day by as much as 8 degrees. && .AVIATION...14/1130Z. At 0831Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer or inversion. High confidence in TAFs. KSBP, KSMX, KLGB and KLAX have a 30 percent chc of IFR cigs aft 15/11Z. KLAX...High confidence in TAF. There is a 30 percent chc of BKN008 conds 15/12Z-15/17Z. No significant easterly wind component is expected. KBUR...High confidence in TAF. && .MARINE...14/202 AM. For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Friday, high confidence in a combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas. On Thursday and Thursday night, there is a 30-40% chance of GALE force winds. For Saturday, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds. For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. For today through Thursday, high confidence in SCA level winds during the afternoon and evening hours. On Friday and Saturday, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours. For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. For today through Thursday, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel, but only a 20-30% chance of SCA level winds elsewhere. For Friday through Saturday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Rorke AVIATION...Rorke MARINE...RAT/Phillips SYNOPSIS...Ciliberti weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox  770 FXUS62 KJAX 141135 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 735 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Moderate Risk of Rip Currents For Area Beaches Tuesday - Extreme to Exceptional Drought Continues. Dry & Warmer This Week. Critically Low Minimum Humidity Values inland each day. Dry Conditions Will Support Increase Risk of Fire Spread - Fog Potential Each Morning through Friday && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... IFR/MVFR patchy, shallow fog and stratus at or near JAX, VQQ, and SSI reducing vsbys less than 3 SM will dissipate between 12Z and 13z this morning. Otherwise, east to southeast winds will increase to 10G15 knots after 14Z, then decreasing to less than 5 knots after sunset (00Z) this evening with VFR conds through 06z. After 06z tonight, patchy fog is expected to develop once again for most terminals and continuing through 12z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 89 56 91 60 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 80 60 80 62 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 85 57 87 59 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 81 58 81 61 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 88 55 90 57 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 88 55 89 58 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None. && $$  479 FXUS63 KEAX 141135 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO Issued by National Weather Service Paducah KY 635 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Active weather pattern continues with multiple chances for strong to severe thunderstorms, specifically Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday. * Warm temperatures (upper 70s to low/mid 80s) are expected to persist through the work week, with cooler and drier conditions expected this weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 635 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Updated Aviation discussion for the 12z TAF issuance. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 412 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Conditions currently much quieter than just a few hours ago. Remnant activity from this evening continues to lift NE through far NE Missouri and into far SE Iowa and west-central Illinois, including additional Severe Thunderstorm Warnings. Synoptic scale conditions favoring active weather remain entrenched across the region. Western CONUS trough has begun to move into Intermountain West, keeping deep SW flow over the central CONUS. This eastward movement of the larger trough and an expected leading piece of shortwave energy will yield another round of Lee Cyclogenesis and an elongated surface low building into and moving across northern Kansas and southern Nebraska. This more southerly placement vs yesterday/Monday will push the dry line closer to and even across portions of the CWA. Hi- res/CAM guidance of late has consistently built/pushed this dry line into SW Iowa by the mid-afternoon and angled back to the SW across NW Missouri, NE Kansas and onward SW. More on this in just a second. The open warm sector will initially be robustly capped once again, but ongoing WAA remains poised to yield highs a handful of degrees warmer today than yesterday, and coupled with diurnal mixing will yield a notably weaker/weak cap by mid-late afternoon. But... we still remain notably lackluster in the synoptic or mesoscale lift depictions. So, back to the dry line. Consistency is also seen in a lack of initiation along the dry line in IA/MO/most of KS with the forecast orientation largely parallel to surface/low level flow. This is notably different in far S Kansas and N Oklahoma where robust convergence into the dry line is anticipated. This "should" be the initiation genesis region, and activity lifting NE toward the forecast area through the late afternoon and evening. As has been noted in previous discussions, this would likely yield a multi- cellular/cluster or linear storm mode for the area. Given what transpired yesterday evening, will certainly note that if we are able to initially convect closer to home or if discrete cells remain, the environment is in many ways similar. Robust CAPE (>2000- 2500 J/kg), supportive deep shear (>35-40 kts 0-6km), and very high near-surface "streamwiseness" noted in hodographs. Regardless, very large hail and damaging winds are the primary concern, with tornadic potential possible with any supercellular structure (though noted LCLs are a bit high). Timing for this would be late afternoon (if we convect closer to home) to evening/night (the more likely KS/OK initial storms moving NE into area). The dry line position will largely determine the N/NW extent of severe threat, which may be near the KC Metro. Sagging frontal boundary catching the dry line and/or LLJ increasing too looks to initiate some more elevated convection, but would generally be in a much less supportive environment by this time (evening/overnight) for strong/severe over NW parts of the CWA. Main things to watch for through the day will be dry line evolution (how far east?) and orientation (areas of greater low level convergence close to home?). SPC New Day 1 Slight Risk remains in place for the area with noted Sig 1 hatching for Hail. Also note Sig 1 hatching for Tornado flirts with far SW forecasts area, noting the best area for discrete storms/supercells. Additional rounds of less potent showers/storms are generally depicted within hi-res/CAM guidance through the overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. A good amount of uncertainty in how this transpires given reliance and upstream convection evolution. For the most part, the greatest ramifications are for how the environment might recover or struggle to recover Wednesday. However, the strong low level flow may limit the bottom end. If we see more sunshine/recovery than cloud cover, another round of very robust convection/storms may be possible. As of now, guidance preference is to initiate along the dry line/cool front hybrid that again may be in the vicinity of the KC Metro and in a NE to SW orientation. Much uncertainty here though, so we shall see how the environment evolves. SPD Day 2 Slight with no noted Sig 1 (or other) hatching into the area. A brief reprieve Thursday as the open wave/trough kicks east, but not really cooler, which helps the area quickly rebound for yet another round of strong to severe weather potential Friday. Of note here, the thermodynamic and kinematic setup is quite impressive in various synoptic guidance. This as another western CONUS trough begins to move out of the Intermountain West and into the Plains. As it does so, takes on a mature/negative tilt orientation, helping yield some of the impressive kinematics. Devil is in the details in how the attendant surface low, general low level features, and timing evolves, so suffice it to say that Friday is absolutely a day/evening to pay attention to. This is also well reflected with the SPC Day 4 bump up to 30% (Enhanced equivalent) over portions of the area. Trough and surface low pivots through Friday night, leaving in its wake notably cooler (more seasonable) and quieter conditions for at least the weekend and early next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 635 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The back edge of widespread MVFR low stratus will shift east of the terminals over the next 1-2 hours, and should be clear of Highway 65 by 16-17z. Winds outside of thunderstorm activity will be from the S around 15-20 kts with gusts of 25-35 kts. Quiet weather with only passing high cirrus is expected through 00z Wednesday, but scattered convection will erupt along the dry line in eastern Kansas around 23-01z. The greatest confidence in convective impacts will be along and south of I-70, so have introduced TEMPO group for IFR vsby TSRA impacts from heavy rain and winds to MKC and IXD between 00-03z. At MCI and STJ, continued with PROB30 groups starting around 01-02z through 06-08z for more impactful TSRA. Depending on how short-term model guidance trends, TEMPO TSRA impacts could be introduced at MCI and STJ with future forecast packages. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ UPDATE...WFO PAH DISCUSSION...Curtis AVIATION...WFO PAH  551 FXUS62 KMLB 141136 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 736 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 154 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - A High Risk for rip currents persists at area beaches today. - Remaining mostly dry over the next several days with a warming trend; Near record highs in the lower 90s late this week and into the weekend over the interior. - Next cold front forecast to cross the area Sunday night into early Monday and bring a small chance for showers early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 154 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Today-Tonight...Ridge aloft remains extended across the area as surface ridge axis of high pressure across the Atlantic persists north of central FL. This will continue a warm and mostly dry pattern across the region today, with highs near to slightly above normal, ranging from near 80 degrees at the coast and low to mid 80s across the interior. Despite an overall dry airmass (PW values around 0.7-0.8"), there is enough moisture in the lower levels for the easterly flow to generate a few onshore moving sprinkles, mainly along the Treasure Coast through this morning and into the afternoon. Radar imagery has already shown some very light showers move onshore Martin County. However, not expecting much in the way of measurable rainfall with this activity, so rain chances remain low (10% or less). Models show airmass drying out even further in tonight which should end any of these light showers and sprinkles. Easterly winds increase up to 10-15 mph today, with gusts to around 20 mph. Onshore winds then diminish into tonight with temps falling into the mid 50s to low 60s across the interior, and in the low to mid 60s at the coast. HREF guidance shows a better potential for patchy fog late tonight through early Wednesday morning across to northwest of the I-4 corridor. A High Risk for life-threatening rip currents persists at area beaches today due to a lingering swell. Entering the surf is not advised. Wednesday-Sunday...Ridge axis remains north of the area through Thursday and then model guidance shows it settling southward across the area late week into the weekend, which will weaken the onshore flow. Ridge aloft will remain extended across the area, continuing a warming trend through the period and overall dry conditions. Onshore winds and inland moving sea breeze will continue to keep warmest max temperatures across the interior each day. Highs will remain closer to normal in the upper 70s/low 80s at the coast Wednesday and Thursday, and be warmer than normal inland, in the mid to upper 80s. As temperatures continue to climb into late week and into the weekend, max temps will become above normal area-wide, ranging from the low to mid 80s at the coast and then climbing into the low 90s across the interior. For inland sites, these highs will be nearing record values, but greatest potential for any tied or broken daily records still look to be at Leesburg Friday through Sunday. Monday-Tuesday...A weak cold front is forecast to move through the area Sunday night into early Monday. This will finally lead to a cooling trend into early next week and also bring a return of rain chances. However, for now PoPs remain on the lower end (around 20- 30%), as there remains some differences in overall moisture return and shower coverage between the GFS/ECMWF, with the GFS still slightly wetter than the ECMWF. Both models show a period of breezy to windy northeast to east winds developing behind the front that will continue into Tuesday. && .MARINE... Issued at 154 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Boating conditions will continue to become more favorable the remainder of the week and into the weekend. Ridge axis of high pressure across the Atlantic remains north of the waters through midweek and then settles southward across central Florida late this week and into the weekend. E/SE winds will generally continue over the next several days in the prevailing flow as ridge axis remains to the north, and then into the afternoon/evening hours Friday through Sunday with the developing east coast sea breeze as ridge settles across the area. Wind speeds will range from 5-15 knots, with seas 3-5 feet today and Wednesday falling to 2-4 feet into late week, and then 2-3 feet into the weekend. A few light showers and sprinkles may develop from time to time in the onshore flow, but overall dry conditions are forecast for the next several days. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 730 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Mainly VFR conditions at all ECFL terminals today. ISO onshore moving -SHRA possible through the day, but chances (10% or less) and coverage not high enough for even VCSH mention. Otherwise dry conditions continue. ESE winds pick up to 8-13 kts with occasionally stronger gusts in the late morning, highest along the Space/Treasure Coasts in the afternoon behind the sea breeze. Winds then settle to 5-10 kts after around 00Z, and become light later in the night. Conditions become slightly more favorable for fog development late tonight into early Wednesday morning. HREF has a typical 10-30% chance for IFR VIS reductions driven by a handful of members, from KMCO- KTIX northward, while NBM/LAMP chances are 5% or less at all ECFL terminals. Given the low chances from the latter keeping TAFs VFR for this package, and will monitor trends. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 154 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Prevailing onshore winds will generally continue through Thursday as ridge axis of high pressure across the Atlantic remains just north of the area. Easterly winds will increase up to 10-15 mph each afternoon through midweek, with strongest winds generally at the coast. Gusts to around 20 mph will also be possible today. Dry conditions are forecast to prevail through late week, with a gradual warming trend continuing over the next several days. Onshore flow will keep Min RH values above critical levels in the mid 40s to mid 50s at the coast. However, well inland, across areas near to northwest of I-4, Min RH values as low as 35-40 percent are forecast this afternoon, with more critical values in the low to mid 30s across this far inland portion of east central Florida Wednesday and Thursday. However, wind speeds are forecast to remain below 15 mph across this area where lower RH values occur. Dispersion values will be Good to Very Good both today and Wednesday. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 154 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Record Highs for April 17-19: April 17th April 18th April 19th Daytona Beach 89 2022 92 1967 92 1968 Leesburg 92 1991 90 1990 92 2020 Sanford 92 1967 94 1967 94 2020 Orlando 95 1922 93 1922 94 1922 Melbourne 90 2006 91 2015 93 2015 Vero Beach 91 2021 92 2015 93 1969 Fort Pierce 93 1919 94 2015 92 1988 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 81 60 80 60 / 10 0 0 0 MCO 84 60 84 61 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 80 65 79 65 / 10 0 0 0 VRB 80 63 80 63 / 10 0 0 0 LEE 86 60 87 61 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 84 60 85 60 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 84 61 85 61 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 80 62 80 62 / 10 0 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Weitlich AVIATION...Haley  806 FXUS65 KPUB 141138 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 538 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Critical fire weather conditions across the plains today, with rain and snow showers over the mountains - After a break Wednesday, critical fire weather conditions return to much of the region on Thursday and potentially Friday - New storm system arrives Fri/Sat bringing a chance for rain and mountain snow, along with widespread below freezing temperatures possible Saturday and Sunday mornings && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1234 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Upper level low over nrn AZ this morning, with widespread rain and snow showers over the wrn half of Colorado ahead of the system. Web cams show snow over Wolf Creek and Monarch Passes as of 1 am, though roads so far look mostly wet to slushy in spots. With snow showers persisting into the morning, won't be too surprised if passes along the Continental Divide eventually see some slushy/icy roads by sunrise, especially Highway 160 from South Fork up to Wolf Creek. Mountains and valleys east of the Continental Divide will see scattered rain/snow showers through sunrise, though precip here will be fairly spotty and light. Upper low forecast to move across Colorado and weaken today and tonight, with rain/snow showers continuing across the mountains and valleys through the day. Could even be a brief thunderstorm over mainly the higher terrain as lapse rates steepen under the upper low/trough. Accumulating snow looks limited to the higher peaks, especially along the Continental Divide, where storm totals of 3-6 inches are possible by this evening. Along I-25 and across the plains, strong west winds develop late this morning, continuing into the afternoon, as upper jet moves overhead and surface low spins up near the KS border. Expect gusts of 35-45 mph to be common from the Sangres eastward, perhaps a few 50 plus mph gusts in the enhanced gap flow region near Walsenburg. Red Flag Warning will remain in effect for the plains/I-25 for much of the day, as humidity will fall toward 10 percent in the afternoon. Windy across the Sangres and San Luis Valley/Upper Arkansas Valley as well, but relative humidity here will be much higher, tempering fire danger somewhat. Tonight, cold front sweeps through the plains in the evening, ending the critical fire weather threat as humidity increases substantially behind the front. Window for showers along I-25 is fairly small, limited to areas near the Palmer Divide/El Paso County during the evening, with a least a threat of a brief mix or period of snow under any heavier showers near the top of the Divide as snow levels fall toward 7k feet. Shower chances diminish quickly farther south, as best dynamic lift stays north. Precip ends quickly after midnight as low weakens and shifts east, with just a few sprinkles/flurries left by sunrise. On Wednesday, dry, breezy and slightly cooler conditions expected, with a few pockets of elevated fire danger through Fremont County as gap winds increase during the afternoon. Haven't issued a highlight here yet, as duration and areal extent of any critical conditions looks limited. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 1234 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 High fire danger returns to the area on Thursday, as southwest flow aloft strengthens ahead of next upper trough digging into the wrn U.S. Have issued a Fire Weather Watch for most of the region for Thu afternoon/evening, as vast majority of model and statistical guidance suggest wind gusts in the 30-45 mph range over the entire area. Trough then swings through the central Rockies Fri, quickly shifting into the plains on Sat. While system will be colder than the past few, trend in model/ensembles has been for a more northern track, keeping best lift and precip over the nrn half of Colorado, with lighter amounts south. Ahead of the system, may still see some critical fire weather conditions on the plains Fri ahead of the cold front, though frontal timing has slightly accelerated, with boundary near the NM border by late Fri afternoon in some of the 00z deterministic guidance. Still too early for any highlights, but expect another potentially active fire weather day for at least portions of the region. Best window for precip looks to be Fri afternoon/evening, mainly over the mountains, with trend toward a quicker trough ending precip by early Sat. Still looking at the potential for widespread below freezing temps Sat and Sun mornings, with readings in the teens and 20s possible mountains and high valleys, mainly 20s on the plains. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 538 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions are anticipated across much of the area over the next 24 hours, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS. Main concerns across the forecast area will once again be increasing southwest surface winds affecting TAF sites, with gusts of 35-40 kts possible starting around 15z at KALS, and 17z at KCOS and KPUB - and lasting through around 03z. Winds will gradually shift NW northwest late afternoon, then NW through the evening before lessening late. Included VCSH wording for KALS this morning through 15z. Farther west, snow with IFR to LIFR conditions expected along the CONTDVD through the forecast period. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for COZ220>222-224>237. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ227>237. && $$ SHORT TERM...PETERSEN LONG TERM...PETERSEN AVIATION...MOORE  993 FXUS66 KPDT 141139 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 439 AM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mountain snow returns today through Thursday - Near to sub-freezing temperatures in the lower elevations Thursday and Friday mornings - Drier conditions return Friday into Saturday, but precip chances will develop again by Sunday && .DISCUSSION... Today through Thursday: A strong upper low with a leading cold front dropping out of the Gulf of Alaska will move across the PacNW starting today, bringing with it widespread rain and mountain snow chances (confidence 80-85%). The best precipitation chances in the lower elevations will be associated with the cold front passage late tonight through Wednesday afternoon, with chances tapering off late Wednesday through Thursday. The upper low and cold front will bring a much colder airmass to the region, resulting in snow levels steadily dropping to below pass levels by tonight, and between 1.5kft to 2kft by Wednesday evening. While the bulk of precip will fall before Wednesday evening in the lower elevations, portions of central and north central OR will see light rain transition to light snow. Otherwise, moderate to locally heavy snow showers will develop across the Cascade crest and the northern Blues this evening through Wednesday evening, with snow tapering off through Wednesday night and Thursday. Multiple winter weather headlines are in effect today through Wednesday night in anticipation of impacts from the heavy mountain snow. There remains high confidence (80-85%) in snow accumulations between 6-12 inches for the OR Cascade east slopes above 4000 feet, 4-8 inches for the upper east slopes of the WA Cascade east slopes, and 5-10 inches for the Northern Blues above 4500 feet. The heaviest snow accumulations are expected later tonight as the cold front slides through the region, with upslope snow showers persisting through the remainder of Wednesday. Breezy winds will continue to impact the region through the midweek as the cold front passage and continued cold air advection into the forecast area result in tightened pressure gradients. Confidence is moderate-high (55-85%) that westerly winds will remain between 15-30mph and gusts 25-45mph through the midweek. That said, wind-prone areas in the Columbia Basin and Blue mountain foothills will see a 65-85% chance of gusts exceeding 45 mph each day through Thursday. Otherwise, clearing skies, dry surface conditions, and cold air advection into the region will result in near to below freezing morning temperatures Thursday and Friday. Of particular concern are the Kittitas and Yakima valleys, where there is 65-85% chance of morning lows below freezing Thursday and Friday. Friday through Monday: Ensemble guidance is in good agreement of upper level ridging sliding across the PacNW with dry conditions and light winds by Friday (confidence 60-75%). The forecast area will remain under the influence of the ridge through Saturday afternoon, but ensemble members disagree on the evolution of the synoptic pattern late Saturday into Monday. That said, there is good agreement in some form of upper low bringing another round of precipitation chances to the region Sunday into early next week. Lawhorn/82 && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...VFR conditions to prevail through the period. An upper level system will bring rain impacts to sites beginning late this afternoon, with shower chances developing at sites PDT/ALW/PSC between 23Z and 6Z. Light rain will develop at site DLS after 6Z and persist into the end of the period. Winds will increase to 12-20kts with gusts 20-30kts at all sites today, with winds becoming light at sites DLS/RDM/YKM around 2-3Z. Otherwise, winds will remain elevated at all other sites through the period. Lawhorn/82 && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 58 41 52 31 / 10 60 90 40 ALW 58 42 52 34 / 20 80 100 60 PSC 61 44 58 34 / 20 40 70 20 YKM 58 39 55 30 / 20 60 30 10 HRI 60 42 57 33 / 10 40 80 20 ELN 51 32 48 29 / 40 70 30 10 RDM 56 35 49 23 / 10 50 90 30 LGD 56 39 49 29 / 10 90 100 70 GCD 58 38 48 26 / 10 70 100 70 DLS 58 41 54 35 / 40 80 70 20 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT Wednesday for WAZ030. Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT Wednesday for WAZ522. OR...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT Wednesday for ORZ502. Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ509. && $$ DISCUSSION...82 AVIATION...82  978 FXUS65 KBOU 141139 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 539 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Snow expected Tuesday for the high mountains, with a good chance of light rain showers over the rest of the CWA into Tuesday evening. - Critical fire weather conditions for southern lincoln county this afternoon. - Widespread critical fire weather conditions over the plains Thursday afternoon. - Next system moves in Thursday night into Saturday morning with the promise of measurable precipitation for all the forecast area. Perhaps cold enough for snow on the plains. && .DISCUSSION /Through Monday/... Issued at 1159 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Current satellite pictures show the upper closed low centered over the northwestern corner of Arizona at this hour. Currently, there is decent convection over western Colorado, with even a few lightning strikes over the Four Corners. A cold front has pushed westward across all the plains this evening and is currently moving up into the foothills with north and northeasterly winds behind it. However, temperatures across the plains are still in the 50s this late evening. The upper trough is progged to move northeastward slowly across Colorado Tuesday into Wednesday morning. The best synoptic scale energy moves across our CWA from 18Z to about 03Z late Tuesday. The instability is weak according to the soundings. The best QPF with the system starts late Tuesday morning in the mountains and goes into early evening. Snowfall amounts above 9,500 feet could get close to 10 inches total in a couple spots from now through Tuesday evening, but the majority of the higher mountains would only see 3-6 inches. It doesn't warrant any highlights. Over the plains, the system should bring 40-60% chances of rain showers from 18Z to 06Z. The northern border plains could see 0.25 of rain from it at best, with less over the rest of the low lands. Will end the pops over the plains before sunrise Wednesday morning. However, a few alpine showers may linger into Wednesday morning. Temperatures should only reach the 60s for highs over the plains today, warmest over the far eastern border. There is weak upper ridging over the CWA Wednesday with a dry airmass in place and temperatures still in the 60s over most of the plains. Increasing southwesterly flow is expected Thursday with a dry airmass and temperatures warming well into the 70s over the plains. This will increase fire weather conditions significantly by afternoon. The southwesterly flow aloft continues Thursday night well into Friday, with the next upper trough pushing across Colorado Friday afternoon through Friday night. Models still show this system to be stronger with colder air available as well as more moisture and measurable precipitation for all of the CWA Friday and Friday night. Temperatures are warming a tad from previous models, but snow is not out of the question for most areas. We can only hope for some much needed measurable precipitation. For the later days, Saturday through Tuesday, models show west- northwesterly flow aloft behind the exiting trough on Saturday, then upper ridging moves in from Saturday night and continues in place through Monday. Southwesterly flow aloft moves in later Monday through Tuesday as the next upper trough approaches from the west. There may be lingering light showers over the mountains on Saturday, but overall the 4 day period looks pretty dry with temperatures warming up to above seasonal normals, once again, Sunday through Tuesday. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday/... Issued at 539 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Winds had become light and VRB this morning, with a weak pressure northerly pressure gradient and mid level clouds offsetting normal drainage winds. We do think there should be a transition to NE-E 15Z-18Z, with possibility (30% chance) of going SE. But speeds should be 10 kts or less. Models have slowed somewhat with the upper level disturbance, but are still fairly consistent showing more organized showers developing over the Front Range Foothills by 18Z (scattered lighter showers before that) and then pushing E-NE across the plains through at least 00Z. Given the dry sub-cloud layer, we expect a gusty W-NW outflow to originate in the foothills and push east ahead of the more organized period of showers. That shift could reach the airports as early as 19Z or as late as 22Z and is reflected in the TAF. We'll eventually see a shower or two likely at the airports but again these will be relatively high based so only light rain for the most part. We have opted to take out the gusty VRB winds however, since DCAPE is <400 J/kg and typically these types of events have the strongest outflow coming off the foothills. The chance of any thunderstorms at the TAF sites is only 10-20% given limited MLCAPE <200 J/kg. Regarding ceilings, the slower movement of the upper trough means more moisture availability. Therefore, we've reduced the ceilings a bit more to reflect more shower coverage and latest data. There's now about a 50-60% chance we'll have IMC at some point 22Z-05Z, with ceilings 6000 feet AGL or less. Skies will be slower to clear as well, and thus the transition from northerly winds to drainage S-SW winds will likely be delayed til 08Z-12Z Wednesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1139 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 In spite of the cooler and more moist airmass expected over the forecast area on Tuesday, southern Lincoln County, Zone 247, still looks to have critical fire weather conditions in place for a few hours during the afternoon hours due to humidity levels dropping into the 12-17 percent range and winds gusting as high as 40 mph. Fuels remain extremely dry in these areas. Looking ahead, critical fire weather conditions look widespread across all the plains Thursday afternoon. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ247. && $$ DISCUSSION...66 AVIATION...20 FIRE WEATHER...66  559 FXUS66 KOTX 141140 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 440 AM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A robust cold front to deliver valley rain, mountain snow, and gusty winds today through Thursday. - Drier and more seasonal temperatures Friday and Saturday. - Rain chances return Sunday and Monday. && .SYNOPSIS... A cold front passage this afternoon into Wednesday will bring lowland rain, mountain snow, and breezy to windy conditions. Some snow will make it down to the lowlands Wednesday night into Thursday morning on the tail end of the mid-week system. && .DISCUSSION... Today to Thursday: Low pressure in the Gulf of AK drops into our area through Wednesday and gradually shifts out Thursday. This brings modest chances for precipitation, along with a trend toward cooler temperatures. Highs will largely in the mid 40s and 50s. Lows will be in the mid-30s to low 40s tonight, then drop into the mid-20s to mid-30s Wednesday and Thursday night which means some freezing temperatures. Rain and mountain snow chances increase through today from the west as the low approaches, becoming likely in the Cascades and northern counties by late morning to afternoon and over most of the remaining CWA late Tuesday afternoon/evening into Wednesday. The exception will be over central WA where the shadowing will keep PoPs to around 40-50%, highest Tuesday overnight into early Wednesday. Overall chances start to wane from the west Wednesday night into Thursday and then start to end completely heading into Thursday night. There is about 15 percent chance for embedded t-storms over the northeast CWA Wednesday afternoon/early evening. Snow levels around 3.5-4.5kft Tuesday afternoon drop to 2-3kft Wednesday afternoon and 1-1.5kft by Thursday morning. So look for mountain snow and lowland rain to start, changing to a lowland mix or even all snow overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning. Precipitation chances start to wane by then, but it still leave the potential for some accumulation in the lowlands that time frame. The biggest snow impacts are expected in the mountain passes. Here are some probabilities from Tuesday to Thursday morning (48-hours): 2 4 6 8 12 Stevens Pass 100% 95% 85% 65% 20% Snoqualmie Pass 100% 85% 65% 45% 15% Lookout Pass 100% 80% 50% 35% 10% Sherman Pass 50% 20% 5% 0% 0% Winter storm warnings remain in effect over western Chelan county and Winter Weather Advisories are in place over western Okanogan County this afternoon and tonight; over the higher elevations of the Okanogan Highlands this afternoon through Wednesday, and now over the central ID Panhandle, above 3000 feet, from this evening through Wednesday night. The chance for 0.1 inches of snow at select locations outside the mountains for Wednesday night into Thursday AM: Pullman 60%, Sandpoint 55%, Spokane 20%. Rain amounts around 0.25 to 0.60 inches are forecast around the east third of WA and ID, with higher amounts in the higher terrain. This could cause some minor flooding around small streams and creeks and lead to some ponding of water in poor drainage areas and field flooding. The NWRFC forecast some rises on mainstem rivers into midweek, though none reach action stage. Paradise Creek, however, could approach action stage toward later Wednesday afternoon into evening. So this will be monitored, because it could easily push above action stage (or more). Winds will remain breezy/gusty through this period. Southwest winds today at 10-20 mph with gusts of 25-40 mph. Winds turn more west-northwest Wednesday and Thursday, with similar speeds but gusts around 20-30 mph. Friday to Monday: High pressure and drier weather comes in Friday, but another low approaches for the latter part of the weekend increasing rain and mountain rain/snow chances Saturday night into Monday. The primary low stays off the coast until Monday, so PoPs are 20-40%, up to near 60% at the immediate Cascade crest and central Panhandle Mountains on Monday. It will be a bit breezy and temperatures will be near normal, except Sunday when values are forecast to be slightly above normal. /Solveig && .AVIATION... 12Z TAFS: The next system moves in today with rain and a return to MVFR at GEG/SFF/COE/PUW. Rain chances start near the EAT/MWH in the early afternoon and expand toward the east toward early to mid-afternoon, becoming likely toward 23-01Z. Winds will remain breezy through the period, with gusts near 20-30kts possible. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Moderate confidence in MVFR conditions at GEG/SFF/COE/PUW 00-06Z. Possible MVFR conditions at LWS with rain, but confidence is low. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 51 38 49 30 49 29 / 50 90 70 30 30 0 Coeur d'Alene 49 37 46 30 47 29 / 50 100 90 50 50 10 Pullman 51 38 44 29 44 29 / 20 90 100 60 50 10 Lewiston 58 44 52 34 50 34 / 10 80 100 50 40 10 Colville 52 35 51 28 53 26 / 80 90 60 30 30 0 Sandpoint 46 37 44 30 45 28 / 80 100 90 60 70 20 Kellogg 46 37 43 29 41 28 / 60 100 100 70 80 30 Moses Lake 57 40 56 30 58 31 / 30 30 30 10 0 0 Wenatchee 55 37 52 34 55 34 / 40 50 20 10 0 0 Omak 56 37 53 31 58 31 / 60 60 30 10 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM PDT Wednesday for Okanogan Highlands. Winter Storm Warning from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM PDT Wednesday for Western Chelan County. Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM PDT Wednesday for Western Okanogan County. ID...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 5 AM PDT Thursday for Central Panhandle Mountains. && $$  123 FXUS63 KSGF 141142 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 642 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slight (level 2 of 5) Risk of severe weather this afternoon into tonight, generally along and west of I-44. Low confidence in afternoon supercell development (all hazards possible), with higher confidence in window of severe potential associated with storms moving in from KS and OK (hail and wind risks). - Breezy southerly winds will occur again this afternoon, gusting up to 35 mph outside of thunderstorms. - Additional severe weather potential Wednesday afternoon and evening, and again Friday afternoon and overnight into Saturday. - Marginal excessive rainfall concerns through the week in areas that see repeated strong storms. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 133 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: A diffuse area of surface low pressure with two embedded centers of low pressure is located over the Northern Plains early this morning. Several hours ago, a dryline extended southward from this area of low pressure through central Kansas and Oklahoma before arcing back through northwest Texas. Now, the dryline has sagged back south and is attaching onto another developing lee cyclone in western Kansas with more of a cold front connecting the developing low to the established low pressure center over Iowa. This dryline separates a corridor of very moist air from a much drier air mass, which can be seen in the difference in PW values between the 00Z RAOBs at OUN (1.26") and DDC (0.3"). Upstream, an amplified trough with a closed low over the Mojave Desert is keeping flow progressive. Severe Weather This Afternoon Into Tonight: Tricky forecast with a lot of nuance and subtle mesoscale influences that will drive the ultimate outcome. The surface low near Wisconsin (calling this low #1 for the rest of this discussion) will slide east into the Great Lakes area and lee cyclogenesis will continue in western Kansas (calling this low #2). All guidance seems to agree on the general evolution through the day: as low #2 deepens and begins to creep east, the boundary connecting lows #1 and #2 will begin to lift north as a warm front and moisture will pool along it. Low #2 will push the dryline east and create a dry slot that could extend as far east as the Missouri/Kansas line by this evening, when moisture will surge northward along the boundary and begin cutting off off the "dry slot" between the warm front and leading edge of moisture transport. What we know mostly for sure: Storms are expected to initiate along the southern portion of the dryline in Kansas and Oklahoma this evening and push into our area late tonight as the LLJ ramps back up. These storms are expected to initiate as supercells, and long-track supercells could be sustained if they remain discrete into the overnight hours. With widespread initiation along the dryline expected, it is more likely that the storms initially begin discrete and begin forming into clusters and grow upscale as they approach and enter our area. Low confidence, higher-severe scenario: This is a low confidence scenario, but the potential severity deems it worth mentioning. As the theta-e gradient sags south through the dry slot this afternoon, it could serve as a lifting mechanism for potential afternoon thunderstorms. Some models indicate that there is a few hours roughly between 21-01Z where the dry slot sags south and east, which would orient the gradient from west to east in portions eastern Kansas. Due southerly surface flow would suggest that the warmer, more moist air would overrun the dry slot, which could provide another lifting mechanism for storms, further north of the expected primary dryline initiation in OK. Soundings suggest that the cap will be overcome-able by late afternoon in the north and west portions of our area, so this overrunning, in addition to any associated surface convergence that occurs as a result of these air masses interacting, would provide the final ingredient for supercell development. 40-50kts of westerly shear could favor either discrete supercells or a preceding round of multicell clusters with supercell characteristics, depending on location of initiation and the orientation of the mesoscale boundary at that location. In all scenarios, any discrete supercells that develop/track into our area would be capable of damaging winds up to 70 mph, very large hail (up to the size of tennis balls), and tornadoes. Once storms begin to interact with other nearby storms and cold pools become contaminated, the primary risk would be damaging wind gusts (especially with bowing segments) and embedded spin-up tornadoes if any line segments can become balanced. Wednesday Severe Weather Potential: Wednesday will begin with the aforementioned round of thunderstorms moving in from the southwest. There may be a few rounds of multicell clusters that move through the area before the primary MCS arrives, pending development near Wichita, but the main AM system will be the TX/OK dryline development from Tuesday night. REFS and HREF members both depict several different scenarios as far as potential number of rounds or timing, but overall consensus is that the MCS will arrive around 6-8am on Wednesday morning. The duration, intensity, and speed of this MCS will be very influential on how the afternoon plays out. As a shortwave upper trough ejects into the Northern Plains on Wednesday, an additional round of strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday afternoon and night. The warm front between lows #1 and 2 on Tuesday will push back south as a cold front, likely stalling in Northern Missouri, but the dryline will still be in play in eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Between 1500-3500 J/kg of SBCAPE will be available in these areas, which will have the most time to recover from morning convection. Despite the uncertainty, if isolated storms could develop and break through the cap, thermodynamic profiles favor large hail from resulting supercells. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 133 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Thursday: Uncertainty in Wednesday afternoon/night storm evolutions leads to uncertainty in when rain will move out of the area. Most medium-range models indicate rain will linger through the early morning hours, especially into the Eastern Ozarks, so maintained 30-65% PoPs through 12Z (7am) Thursday. Coverage may become more scattered as the storms progress, which would see PoPs decreased in following forecasts. Storm redevelopment is not expected on Thursday afternoon, with the rest of the afternoon remaining dry. Friday will see a more aggressive cold front approach from the northwest, serving as another source for severe weather this week. Synoptic conditions appear similar to Wednesday, except this time the cold front makes it into our area. Storms could initially be more supercellular in the afternoon warm sector, which appears to include our entire forecast area, before growing into a line of storms with the cold frontal passage Friday night. Temperatures will finally drop out of the 80s on Saturday, with mean temperatures in the 60s for this weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 633 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Scattered low stratus in the 2-3kft layer to start the period, with only localized parts of Missouri recording enough coverage to create MVFR ceilings. Satellite trends suggest the transient nature of these clouds at the SGF and BBG sites should keep prevailing conditions largely VFR, though brief reductions to MVFR cigs will be possible through the critical TAF period. Otherwise, chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms (likely strong to severe, if they materialize) late this afternoon into this evening. Lots of remaining uncertainty into details (especially coverage and timing) but KJLN is most likely to see impacts and would likely see storms earlier than other sites. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 530 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Record High Temperatures: April 14: KSGF: 88/1936 KVIH: 87/2006 KUNO: 86/2024 April 15: KUNO: 84/9999 April 16: KVIH: 85/2006 April 17: KSGF: 87/1937 KVIH: 86/2004 KUNO: 87/2006 Record High Minimum Temperatures: April 14: KSGF: 67/2006 KJLN: 70/2006 KUNO: 63/2012 KVIH: 63/2006 April 15: KSGF: 63/2006 KJLN: 66/2006 KUNO: 62/2006 KVIH: 63/1976 April 17: KSGF: 66/1976 && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Camden LONG TERM...Camden AVIATION...Camden CLIMATE...Camden  745 FXUS61 KCLE 141143 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 743 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Confidence in the placement and timing of severe weather potential today remains low relatively low. There's a possibility of an initial round of storms later this morning into early this afternoon and any evening/overnight convection will rely on how things pan out during the day. There is also increasing concern for stronger storms and flooding Wednesday into Thursday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Multiple rounds of storms likely today through Thursday. Storms may be strong to severe at times, best chance this evening into tonight and on Wednesday afternoon/evening. 2) Multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rain may result in flooding, especially on Wednesday. 3) Above normal temperatures expected through Saturday with cooler temperatures returning towards the end of the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Unsettled weather with periodic showers and thunderstorm complexes are expected through Thursday as a frontal boundary wavers to the north of the local area and a series of shortwaves move across the boundary. Given the lack of forcing with the best upper level support to the north of the area, convection over the next couple of days will rely on mesoscale features and the resulting confidence in timing, placement, and strengths of storms remains low at this time. Round 1 (Early Today): The actual first round of storms has exited the area, however the upstream convection over southern Wisconsin and Michigan will need to be monitored through this morning. It's possible that the overnight convection has left some lingering boundaries across the area so will need to keep an eye on the potential for enhanced convergence as this weakening convection moves in. It's possible that the atmosphere is still stabilized due to lingering cloud cover and a mid- level cap, but some elevated instability remains in place. Either way, will need to keep an eye on the potential for elevated storms that could produce gusty winds and hail this morning into this afternoon. Round 2 (This Evening/Tonight): The severe weather potential later this afternoon into tonight will depend on how the early- day convection pans out. Early-day convection may help stabilize things later this evening. On the other hand, the convection could leave behind boundaries and a source for convergence for evening convection maintenance and growth. Additional convection will move in from the northwest this evening into tonight, although there is some potential for scattered showers and storms developing out ahead of the main line of convection at some point early to mid evening. There's quite a bit of disagreement in the forecast amongst CAMs, but overall confidence in the potential for precipitation in general is high for tonight. Despite the unfavorable diurnal timing, relatively high shear values due to a 50 knot LLJ moving into the northern portion of the CWA and deep moisture will result in a favorable environment for thunderstorm maintenance. With this round, damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazard but large hail and a few tornadoes cannot be ruled out given the wind field and lapse rates. Generally expect a weakening trend as the storms move into the area overnight. If stability stays in place, it may be more of a heavy rain scenario (see Key Message 2). There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) of severe weather across northern Ohio with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) over the remainder of the local area. Round 3 (Wednesday): The air mass will change very little on Wednesday and if anything, moisture will increase and forcing may increase slightly as the aforementioned frontal boundary sags a bit further south. Moist and deep west/southwest flow will likely produce sufficient destabilization for scattered showers and storms on Wednesday and CAMs suggest that yet another complex of storms will traverse east across the local area Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. As with previous days, damaging wind gusts and hail will be possible in these storms, although the severe weather threat will depend on mesoscale features that have not yet been resolved. There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) of severe weather across interior NE OH and NW PA with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) elsewhere. Round 4 (Thursday): Additional showers and storms are possible as a cold front pushes east across the local area Thursday into early Friday. Instability may be a bit lower during this timeframe, but the upper level support will allow for potential for organized convection ahead of or along the cold front. There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather on Thursday. A brief break in convection is expected on Friday, but showers and storm chances return on Saturday as a cold front approaches and moves east across the region. Will need to keep an eye on potential for organized storms on Saturday in the upcoming days. KEY MESSAGE 2... Moderate to heavy rainfall rates will accompany thunderstorms through Thursday. The deep, moist west/southwest flow will produce precipitable water values between 1.2 and 1.5 inches (possibly higher at times) through early Thursday. To add some context for how unseasonably high these PWATs are, the 90th percentile for PWATs at surrounding upper air sounding sites for mid-April are generally under an inch with daily maxima of up to about 1.25 inches. Storms should be relatively progressive today into tonight, although the efficient rainfall rates and multiple opportunities for storms could cause some rises on rivers/creeks/streams and cause some minor flooding issues in urban/poor drainage areas. Any precipitation today and tonight will help prime waterways and soils for additional precipitation on Wednesday. As of early this morning, 1-hr FFG values across the area are generally up to 1.5 inches (with locally higher values up to 2 inches) with 3-hr FFG values of generally 1.75-3 inches. Expect these values to decrease with any heavier rainfall this evening/tonight. There's also some potential for backbuilding/training Wednesday into Wednesday night, which would increase flooding concerns for localized areas. Confidence in QPF (especially axes of higher QPF values) is low and will depend on where storms occur, but several CAMs have at least 1 to 2 inches of QPF across portions of the area through early Thursday with locally higher amounts possible where repeated rounds of rain occur. KEY MESSAGE 3... Persistent warm air advection will result in well above normal temperatures through Saturday. Instead of normal lower 60s for highs, highs will be in the 70s with lower 80s possible in areas that clear out a bit today and Wednesday. Cooler temperatures may materialize with persistent cloud cover and precipitation. It will be quite muggy thanks to dew points in the lower 60s. Temperatures will temporarily moderate to below normal values in the 50s Sunday and Monday, but guidance favors a warming trend by the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/... Active stretch of weather expected through the TAF period with multiple possible rounds of thunderstorms, some strong to severe possible. The first round of showers with some embedded thunder will enter from the northwest this morning. Guidance has trended a bit earlier so have -TSRA or -SHRA begin ~12Z and exit this afternoon ~18Z. Have timed out impacts to terminals with the initial round of convection using PROB30 groups across western terminals and TEMPO groups for -SHRA across eastern terminals. The development on the next round of thunderstorms may hinge on what occurs this morning and early afternoon. As of right now, these thunderstorms will develop along and east of CLE around 03Z/Wed with a stronger area of thunderstorms pushing southward across Lake Erie starting at ~04-06Z/Wed. For the TAF, opted for a PROB30 group at all TAF sites for the evening/overnight possible convection. Strong to damaging wind gusts and IFR/MVFR reductions to cigs/vis will be possible in any stronger thunderstorm that moves over a terminal in this later timeframe. Elevated southwesterly winds 12-18 knots with gusts 20-30 knots will remain in place through this evening. Highest wind gusts will occur this afternoon and in any convection. Winds shift southerly tonight and diminish to 10 knots or less through the overnight hours. Outlook...Periods of non-VFR conditions are expected in showers and thunderstorms through Thursday. && .MARINE... Southerly to southwesterly winds remain elevated between 15-20 knots through today. Given the offshore component, the highest wave heights will remain across the open waters of Lake Erie. Southerly to southwesterly winds 12-18 knots will remain across the lake through the end of the week as multiple systems move through the region. Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances will be present through Thursday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...15 AVIATION...13 MARINE...13  610 FXUS63 KDMX 141144 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 644 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...Updated for the 12z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered severe storms (Level 3 of 5) mainly across east- central Iowa this afternoon/evening. All severe weather hazards remain possible. More widespread storms and locally heavy rainfall expected tonight, especially over the southern half of Iowa. - Additional rounds of severe storms and locally heavy rainfall still expected on Wednesday (eastern half of Iowa) and again on Friday (much of Iowa). Details on those events will be fine tuned in future days. - Warm and breezy today through Friday with highs in the 70s and 80s. Much cooler readings in the 40s and 50s by this weekend, hard freeze likely north. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 251 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Day 2 of the active convective weather week, here we go: Today...Highest Severe Threat: East-central Iowa. Timing: Scattered activity late afternoon/evening, more widespread coverage overnight, especially south half of Iowa. Persistent upper pattern remains locked in over the upper Midwest with a broad southwest flow aloft with several weak embedded shortwaves. As expected, the sfc low has shifted swd over KS/NE and will deepen slightly today with model consensus around 998mb by 00z Wed. The attendant sfc front will extend newd from the low across southeast NE, through central IA, and into the Great Lakes region. With the plume of anomalous low level moisture in place, moderate to strong instability, steep mid level lapse rates, and strong winds aloft /0-6km shear of 50-60kts/ would again support supercell development and all convective hazards should this parameter space be realized. The SPC Day 1 Outlook remains largely unchanged with an Enhanced Risk (Level 3 of 5) across east-central Iowa, with lower probabilities south/north. Examining the latest guidance here are the key points worth mentioning and monitoring. 1) Capping - WAA in the 900-700mb layer will maintain the EML, with model soundings continuing to show moderate MLCIN. The question is whether low level convergence along the front and weak H5 height falls can provide enough lift to erode the cap and allow for CI. Some of the 00Z/14 CAMS struggle to initiate storms in the DMX area during the afternoon and evening, with storm coverage possibly higher in far eastern IA. 2) Some guidance /HRRR and RAP/ indicate a pseudo dryline feature pushing quickly eastward across central IA during the day dropping Tds into the 40s and 50s as far east as I-35. Other guidance /NAM, RRFS, ECMWF/ is not as aggressive with the dryline feature. Should this occur, the drier air could impact CI, storm mode and hazards - lesser TOR threat with higher LCLs. Bottom line, now is not the time to let our guard down. The CAMs yesterday under did storm coverage, and this could happen again. We'll provide updates as the day unfolds and details become clearer. Tonight...regardless of what happens during the day, there is higher confidence that a 40-50kt LLJ will restrengthen after 03Z tonight. This will result in strong moisture convergence and hence widespread convection over at least the southern half the CWA. Soundings indicate that these storms are likely to be elevated with the primary threats hail, perhaps wind if a cluster can organize, and locally heavy rainfall /20% to 40% chance of 1" or greater/. This will likely be a messy mode, with lots of storm interactions and mergers. Wednesday...As noted in previous discussions, the convective evolution today and tonight will strongly influence what happens tomorrow, especially in term of warm sector recovery and position of frontal boundaries. What we do know is that another more potent upper shortwave will lift newd through the upper Midwest on Wednesday, inducing yet another sfc low to move through Iowa. Timing, position, and movement of the sfc features will be critical to the convective evolution. One camp of models has the sfc low moving more quickly ewd /e.g. NAM/ which could keep most activity east of this forecast area. The other global models tend to be slower with the evolution, which would move the sfc low and triple point through Iowa during peak heating. Should this occur, robust storm development, including supercells would again be possible, assuming sufficient destabilizaton. Again, specific details regarding the low level wind profiles, moisture content and LCLs, etc, will have an impact on the things like the tornado potential. The SPC has maintained the Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for now and agree that is reasonable pending the details noted above. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 251 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Will keep this discussion brief per the events above. In the wake of Wednesday's system, a brief period of shortwave ridging should move into the region, yielding a "lull" in the action on Thursday. This respite will be short lived however, as the strongest and most amplified upper trough/closed low moves towards the region on Friday. A broad, elongated sfc low developing over the High Plains will re-induce a strong southerly flow over Iowa with a warm and humid airmass surging back northward. Another round of severe storms is looking likely on Friday along strong cold front that will move quickly from west to east across the region. In fact, the SPC has increased severe probabilities to 30% on Day 4 for this reason, as clearly storm development will not be an issue with such a dynamic system. As the storms and cold front move east of the state Friday night, colder air will wrap in behind the departing low and cannot rule out some snowflakes in northern portions of the state early Saturday. Temperatures will tumble into the 40s and 50s with breezy winds from the northwest on Saturday as well. As noted previously, we'll have to keep an eye out for a hard freeze on Saturday night, especially across northern Iowa. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 637 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Variable and challenging aviation conditions today. As in previous mornings, fog has developed at KFOD/KMCW with VSBYs bouncing as low as 1/4SM at times. Expect this fog will dissipate between 13-14Z. Also seeing pockets of MVFR status around the state, but its disorganized. Lower CIGs have remained in the vicinity of KDSM/KOTM, but have largely avoided the airfields. By later this AM, better mixing will yield a mostly VFR SCT/BKN deck around 4-5k feet. Still looking at the potential for scattered thunderstorms this afternoon, generally after 20-21z. Coverage looks relatively low through evening, so opted to keep the PROB30 for now until confidence increases. Later tonight, another round of showers and thunderstorms will develop associated with the LLJ, this could also result in periods of at least MVFR CIGs and VSBYs. Winds today will favor a southerly direction in the south, with variable or northerly winds at KALO/KFOD/KMCW. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 239 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Multiple rounds of seasonally moderate to heavy rain this week will lead to renewed flooding concerns. Presently the main concern will be possible renewed or additional river flooding. Output from the GFS- and NBM-forced medium-range National Water Model (NWM) and the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System (HEFS) suggest the most likely scenario will be moderate to significant within-bank rises on many rivers and streams, especially across the southeast half of the CWA over the next week. A few locations may see minor river flooding as well. These rises will be due to the additive effect of multiple rounds of rainfall. If rainfall is higher than presently forecast then the risk of several locations seeing minor flooding and a few locations seeing moderate flooding will increase. Flash flooding is less of a concern than river flooding, however the risk is nonzero. The most likely scenario will be ponding of water or low-end flash flooding especially in urban areas or areas that receive repeated heavy rainfall over a relatively short time period. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Fowle LONG TERM...Fowle AVIATION...Jimenez/Fowle HYDROLOGY...Zogg  748 FXUS63 KBIS 141146 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 646 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light precpitation exits to the northeast through the morning. Low chance of light rain across the south overnight. - Mainly dry and warmer today and Wednesday. - Wide range in temperatures from northwest to southeast Thursday as a cold front pushes into the state. - Significant cool down for the end of the week, with medium chances for rain and snow. && .UPDATE... Issued at 645 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Showers are found over north central North Dakota at the time of this early morning update. The heaviest precpitation occurring over Pierce and Rolette counties, where rain has transitioned to snow over the past few hours. Visibilities over this area have been consistently around 1/2 to 2 miles while snow has been falling, so we wouldn't be surprised to see accumulations on grass and elevated surfaces once the sun rises. Precpitation will generally end over the next few hours as the inciting low continues to exit to the northeast. Otherwise this morning, fog has developed where precpitation has ceased across the west and south central. A tour of NDDOT camera reveals it to be fairly patchy, except over the far south central where it has been a little more consistently socked in. Fog is generally expected to lift through the mid morning. With this update, have made tweaks to the PoPs and sky grids to account for the latest model trends, and bumped up fog in the far south central. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track at this time. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The remnants of precpitation overnight continue to exit to the northeast with the inciting low pressure center this morning. While still mainly falling as light rain, some snow may become mixed into this is precpitation in the Turtle Mountains area as cooler air wraps around the low. Little to no snow accumulation is expected. Low stratus and some patchy fog lingers behind the rain, though both are expected to clear from west to east through through the mid morning. Lows are broadly in the 30s to lower 40s. Near zonal to slightly southwesterly flow is expected over the northern Plains as another transient shortwave / closed low cross the region. Short term deterministic models continue to nudge the track of this low slightly further and further north over the past few forecast cycles, skimming across our southern counties late this afternoon and overnight. With this more northerly track, there is some potential for light precpitation across portions of the northwest and north central during this period. An interrogation of BUFKIT model soundings across the south this evening reveals a fairly dry layer near surface layer than any precpitation that does form would need to overcome, thus have opted to limit precpitation to a very low chance (<20 percent). Otherwise, cloud cover across the south central might be a little slow to clear out through today compared to the north and far west with this shortwave. Highs this afternoon are above normal by around 5 to 10 degrees, forecast broadly in the mid 50s east to mid 60s west. Lows tonight are expected to be in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Dry and warm conditions linger through Wednesday, with highs peaking well into the 60s to lower 70s across the forecast area. Flow over the northern Plains is expected to turn increasingly southwesterly through late Wednesday and through the day Thursday as closed upper level Pacific trough and associated surface low makes it way across southwestern Canada. As the influence of this low complex increases through the day on Thursday, a fairly stark gradient in high temperatures is expected in the afternoon, from the lower 40s across the north up to the mid 70s in the far south central. Chances for precpitation will also increase from northwest to southeast through the day Thursday, becoming likely overnight through Friday morning. The ensemble continues to advertise a general transition from mostly rain Thursday to a rain-snow mix or all snow overnight into Friday as the cold front associated with the low complex digs across the forecast area. There remains some disagreement about when and where this transition occurs, with a slight majority of clusters (55 percent) favoring a slightly slower evolution of the system, allowing for a greater amount of the precpitation associated with this wave to fall during the coolest period of the night. With this, light snow accumulations up to an inch or two are possible across much of western and central North Dakota, though the highest amounts would be along the International Border. A minority cluster (45 percent) favors a slightly quicker low, allowing for the bulk of precpitation across the west and south to fall mainly as rain. In this scenario, light snow accumulations would mainly be limited to the far north central. In either scenario, this snow isn't expected to be impactful, or last on the ground very long at all. Otherwise, breezy to windy conditions are expected both Thursday and Friday as a sharp pressure gradient develops across the forecast area. With these winds being gradient driven, we don't expect these winds to be overly impactful, perhaps near advisory at best across portions of the southwest. This thinking is backed by the lack of any highlight in the EFI during this period. Below normal highs in the 30s and 40s can be anticipated both Friday and Saturday with the much cooler airmass situated over the northern Plains, before a developing longwave ridge across much of the western CONUS will help warming temperatures return late in the weekend into early next week. There remains a decent amount of disagreement within the ensemble on timing, resulting in a 15 to 20 degree spread in highs Monday and Tuesday, but all clusters appear to resolve in a brief blocking pattern setting up early next week. With this, dry conditions can also be anticipated during this period. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 645 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Mainly MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibility can be found to begin the 12Z TAF period. Ceilings have been fairly variable overnight, occasionally dipping down to LIFR levels, though they are expected to start improving to VFR conditions from west to east through the morning into the early afternoon. An area of showers continues to move across north central North Dakota this morning, falling mostly as rain with some snow mixing in across the Turtle Mountains area, though precipitation is no longer expected at any terminals. Winds are expected to remain around 10 kts or less through much of the period, turning out of the east this morning to the west this afternoon, then out of the south tonight. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Adam DISCUSSION...Adam AVIATION...Adam  274 FXUS64 KSHV 141146 AAA AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Shreveport LA 646 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1215 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Quiet overnight with much the same on our Tuesday with mostly cloudy skies becoming partly cloudy are warmer readings. - Chance for some showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday with an upper low riding over the Plains on SW flow. - The weekend cold front is looking earlier on Saturday with more needed rainfall and cooler readings Sunday into Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1215 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A mild overnight period with partly cloudy skies around midnight and more low clouds arriving with daybreak. That SW flow aloft lingers, but without much in the way of lift for any rain on Tuesday except north of I-30. Here a few showers may develop early in the day or with mid to late heating. Coverage will isolated to perhaps SE OK. Little change for tomorrow evening and overnight from what will be going on right now. However, an upper low will slide up along the eastern edge of the long wave troughing over much of the western U.S. and this feature will tighten the gradient with S winds Tuesday veering a bit more to gusty SW on Wednesday. There is a decent chance for showers and thunderstorms overnight for our I-30 corridor and then expanding down over NE TX and much of the area. Deep east Texas and most Parishes will miss out this time around as the big upper ridge has become semi-permanent over the eastern Gulf of America. This low will be filling/weakening and just does not have the same dig as our last push. Rainfall amounts could be near an inch for a loose average over our I-30 corridor. The WPC has a Marginal Risk for excessive amounts over our NW 1/3 of counties. Also the SPC continues a Marginal Risk for their day 3 outlook over similar real estate for our concerns. Much lighter amounts may reach down from Nacogdoches to Shreveport and Bossier up to El Dorado. All very consistent on the mid to short term models runs. Then as that low passes in the SW flow, we will wait again Thursday and Friday with more gusty S/SW winds and mostly dry conditions. Can't rule out a few pop up showers, but we may be capped in the mid levels for little if any. The approaching cold front for Saturday is a little ahead of recent runs, shifting our winds to W/NW late morning for I-30 and around lunch for Shreveport and much of I-20, and clearing our LA Parishes by sunset. Rainfall is still looking good with the WPC outlook carrying close to an inch along and south of I-20 for our entire corridor from TX across LA. Rainfall still looks pre and post frontal, ending early on Sunday. Then the NW winds will usher back cooler and drier air for a run of much closer to average readings, and a few below average for mid April with generally 50s and 70s for a few days. /24/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 646 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Extensive areas of low MVFR cigs have overspread much of the region this morning, and will persist through late morning before slowly returning to VFR by late morning/midday. Cu cigs should linger through the afternoon though across much of E TX/NW LA/SW AR before scattering out, but will scatter out a bit sooner over SCntrl AR/NCntrl LA, before eventually dissipating around/shortly after 00Z. While some thin cirrus will linger across the region this evening, low MVFR cigs should redevelop over SE TX by 06Z, and quickly spread NNE across the region overnight, before lifting again/returning to VFR by late morning/midday Wednesday. S winds will increase to 10-15kts with gusts to 22kts before diminishing to 5-10kts after 00Z. /15/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1240 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Spotter activation will not be needed until late Wednesday. /24/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 86 65 85 68 / 0 0 10 30 MLU 88 62 88 65 / 0 0 0 10 DEQ 82 62 80 61 / 10 10 40 80 TXK 86 66 84 67 / 10 10 20 60 ELD 87 61 85 64 / 0 0 0 30 TYR 84 67 83 68 / 10 0 30 40 GGG 84 65 84 66 / 0 0 10 40 LFK 86 65 85 66 / 0 0 10 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...24 AVIATION...15  138 FXUS62 KCAE 141147 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 747 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation discussion updated for 12z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1. Well above average temperatures, along with dry weather conditions, will continue into next weekend. - 2. Limited chance for rain on Sunday, but rainfall would be light and short-lived. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Well above average temperatures, along with dry weather conditions, will continue into next weekend. Not much has really changed in regards to the expected hot and dry conditions this week and into the upcoming weekend. Upper ridge will be in control through Thursday before weakening slightly Friday as an upper trough passes off to our north. Airmass remains too dry for any chance of seeing rainfall, so a dry forecast remains. Behind that exiting trough for the first part of the weekend, upper ridge builds back in with some of the warmest temperatures of the period possible Saturday. Through Saturday, near record highs will remain possible each day, and multiple days at or above 90 degrees F are likely by mid-week and into the weekend. Key Message 2: Limited chance for rain on Sunday, but rainfall would be light and short-lived. Cooler temperatures possible Sunday onward. Models are showing a small chance for a brief shower on Sunday as another upper level system moves off to the north of the forecast area. At the surface, the upper trough will at least be strong enough to push a cold front into and eventually through the area Sunday into Sunday night. Slightly better moisture could move in ahead of this front, allowing for a slight chance of seeing some light rainfall as it moves through. The best chance for seeing this appears to be over the central/northern Midlands Sunday afternoon, with the southern Midlands and the CSRA potentially remaining dry with this front. The front will be strong enough though to bring slightly cooler temperatures back across the region starting Sunday afternoon and into Monday. Highs in the 70s could be possible on Monday. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions generally expected. Some predawn river fog has impacted OGB and may linger through 13z but should return to VFR by 13z. Little change in the overall air mass with high pressure centered over the western Atlantic. Light southwesterly winds expected to pick up to around 10 knots after 15z before diminishing again around sunset. Otherwise, mainly clear skies or some thin cirrus clouds passing overhead through the period. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...High pressure to dominate through the upcoming week, the chance for widespread restrictions remains low. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...42 AVIATION...23  838 FXUS63 KDVN 141147 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 647 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - We continue with multiple days of severe weather risks the rest of the week, with an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) for severe storms for parts of the area today and again Friday, along with a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) Wednesday. - Above normal temperatures will continue through Friday. - Potential for frost/freeze conditions Saturday night and especially Sunday night. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 334 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Residual outflow boundary from decaying WI MCS extends roughly near a line from Independence, Iowa to Monticello, Iowa to near Sterling, Illinois early this morning. The boundary is markedly slowing as organized convection earlier in WI continues to diminish. 00Z DVN RAOB sampled a well defined EML, which until recently has largely kept precipitation at bay except for portions of Jo Daviess and Stephenson counties atop the lingering low level cool pool north of the outflow boundary. However, low level water vapor imagery loop appears to suggest a cirrus tag denoting a weak impulse lifting up across the area. This along with increasing low to mid level warm advection attendant to a veering 40-50 kt LLJ is fostering some spotty convection into portions of eastern Iowa, and also further south into northeast Missouri on the backside of a well defined convectively augmented wave shifting toward central Illinois. For this morning, we'll maintain spotty convection chances through daybreak attendant to the aforementioned forcing mechanisms. This will be elevated activity and could bring an isolated marginally severe hail threat. Thereafter, there is considerable uncertainty on convective evolution the rest of today. The RAP model is most aggressive on supporting more scattered convection developing mid to late morning through early afternoon, and is mostly an outlier. Mid level water vapor imagery does seem to suggest another potential subtle wave lifting quickly up across OK/s KS, and distance/speed would bring this across this morning. With the EML in place should any convection occur during this timeframe it would remain elevated, but with heating could lead to increased potential for a few marginally severe cores with hail again the main threat. Low confidence exists on this round of precipitation potential late morning into afternoon, but it could have some big implications on what happens later this afternoon into evening. The main focus for deep convection and a more significant severe weather risk it appears will be in the vicinity of the outflow boundary by late afternoon into this evening. However, just where this boundary is located and where the subsequent main corridor for a severe weather risk remains uncertain. If we do end up with more convection festering late morning and afternoon, it could help retard the northward movement of the outflow and bring more of the area north of I-80 in the threat for a few storms by late afternoon into evening with the EML likely limiting storm coverage. If we don't see much convection in the late morning and early afternoon, then we will likely see this boundary lift northward and it could mix or effectively jump northward to Hwy 20 or possibly even further north into s WI and far ne IA just north/northwest of the service area by late afternoon, with any convective threat in our far north or not too far outside of the area. The evolution of the boundary will play a big role in where this chance for later PM/evening severe storms will exist. Effective bulk shear of 40-50+ kt within a moderately unstable atmosphere generally characterized by MLCAPE of 1500-2500+ j/kg will be favorable for supercells, with the supercell vector largely perpendicular to the initiating outflow supporting discrete potential meaning there may not be many storms. The kinematic and thermodynamic environment look to be favorable for significant severe, particularly large to very large hail with large CAPE in the growth zone and steep mid level lapse rates over 8c/km, with also a tornado threat due to any boundary interaction / ingestion of enhanced low level SRH. Aside from the significant severe risk within the vicinity of the remnant outflow late afternoon/evening. The rest of the area is likely to remain dominated by an EML. Later tonight, forcing for ascent is forecast to increase ahead of an approaching shortwave ejecting from the Great Basin area early this morning. Thus, we do anticipate a burgeoning of convection later in the evening and overnight. This looks to largely remain elevated with primarily a large hail threat. However, any congealing of convection in multi-cells could foster some strong, gusty wind potential as well. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 334 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 For Wednesday through Friday, the active pattern will only continue as an upper-level longwave trough moves through the area Wednesday, followed by yet another one on Friday. We continue with a Slight Risk or level 2 of 5 risk areawide on Wednesday. There remains some uncertainty on the timing and severity on Wednesday, mainly due to the likelihood of ongoing convection owing to uncertainty on the extent of airmass recovery/destabilization by afternoon and evening. However, we will have more of a trigger for severe weather with a surface low and attendant cold front. If we can see sufficient destabilization occur then the potential is there for at least scattered storms to develop ahead of the low and cold front by mid to late afternoon through evening. Strong deep layer shear and vector orientation may support discrete supercells with large to very large hail and some tornado threat, before potentially growing upscale into a QLCS with predominantly a damaging wind threat and potential for spin-up tornadoes with any mesovorts. Thursday looks to be a drier and brief respite from the active weather, as a weak surface ridge traverses the region. The break in the quiet is short-lived as the high moves off by Friday and we see strengthening return flow/warm advection on gusty southerly winds. The main focus for convective initiation on Friday is favored to our west ahead of a lifting surface low and attendant cold front. There is some potential for discrete supercells developing and/or propagating into parts of eastern Iowa Friday evening with all hazards possible. However, we may once again see this activity grow upscale into a QLCS with an accompanying damaging wind and spin-up tornado threat by mid to late evening and into the early overnight. Due to the risk for discrete supercells, SPC has introduced a 30% (enhanced) risk for portions of eastern Iowa and northeast Missouri. A look ahead to the upcoming weekend shows a drier pattern developing for Saturday and Sunday as upper-level ridging develops to the west. A cold front should bring notably cooler and more seasonal temperatures to the area on the heels of strong, gusty northwest winds. This could bring our first bout of frost/freeze conditions during this growing season, possibly Saturday night though winds may stay up to limit this to just a freeze potential for parts of the area, while Sunday night could bring about more widespread freeze and frost with lighter winds as high pressure builds in. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 633 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Thunderstorms this morning have pushed to the east of all TAF sites with lingering mid level clouds at KBRL and KMLI. Low stratus is moving northeastward from Missouri and may impact KCID and KBRL this morning but otherwise VFR ceilings are expected through the day. Thunderstorms are possible between 21 and 03 UTC mainly impacting KCID and KDBQ but confidence remains low on the exact location so used a prob30 at both locations with MVFR conditions expected. Another round of thunderstorms is possible at KBRL and KMLI after 06 UTC and and used a prob30 at both locations to account for that. Winds will be south to southwesterly through the period with speeds of 10 to 20 knots and gusts up to 25 to 30 knots with the highest gusts during the afternoon. Winds will diminish after 00 UTC Wednesday. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...McClure LONG TERM...McClure AVIATION...Cousins  098 FXUS66 KMTR 141147 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 447 AM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1216 AM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Slightly cooler to near normal temperatures continue through Thursday - Periods of gusty winds, especially at higher elevations Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning - Warmer temperatures return Friday and Saturday - Confidence is increasing for widespread beneficial rain beginning Sunday into the beginning of next week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1216 AM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 (Today and tonight) The upper level low that brought beneficial rainfall the past few days has exited east with lingering low clouds overnight from the SF Peninsula south into Monterey and the Salinas Valley, and farther inland over the interior mountains of San Benito County. Low clouds will linger across the Bay Area and Central Coast through mid- morning today as a drier mid-level airmass filters in across our area under shortwave ridging aloft, with mostly sunny skies in the afternoon into the evening hours. High temperatures will begin their gradual increase through midweek today, with only slight increases from Mondays highs. Tonight into Wednesday morning will still be on the chilly side of normal with mostly clear skies, relatively light winds, and more efficient radiational cooling. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1216 AM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 (Wednesday through Monday) Temperatures on Wednesday will be similar or slightly higher on the backside of the progressive shortwave ridging. By Wednesday afternoon, onshore flow will increase out ahead of a sharpening trough that will bring gusty winds and a slight chance of rain across northern portions of the North Bay. The better fetch of onshore flow out ahead of the upper trough and associated surface boundary will be short lived but will produce more widespread cloud cover during the day and evening hours. Onshore flow will quickly transition to north/northeast offshore flow overnight into Thursday in the wake of the progressive upper trough. The gusty winds during the day Thursday, especially above 1000ft are not expected to exceed 40 MPH with little impacts. Winds ease Friday, while a still progressive but high amplitude ridge moves onshore producing a more notable jump in temperatures Friday and Saturday to slightly above normal for most locations. The active, progressive longwave pattern continues by the end of the weekend into the beginning of next week with an increasing signal for another round of widespread beneficial rainfall. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 447 AM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Pockets of fog are affecting the North Bay terminals while MVFR CIGs are building for the rest of the TAF sites. CIGs and fog will erode into the mid to late morning leading to widespread VFR for the afternoon. Expect building winds into the afternoon, becoming moderate to breezy. These winds reduce into the evening and early night. MVFR-level CIGs return to the coast and HAF into the night. These CIGs will be slower to build inland, but CIGs will be expected at LVK, MRY, and SJC into the late night and early Wednesday. Vicinity of SFO...Spotty MVFR CIGs linger into the mid morning before eroding. Expect mostly moderate winds through the morning and into the afternoon before breezy west winds build in the mid afternoon. Winds reduce into the night, but remain moderate through the end of the TAF period. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR CIGs last into the late morning with mostly light winds. Expect CIGs to erode as winds build in the late morning and early afternoon. Moderate west winds look to last into the evening before reducing as scattered low clouds build into the area. MVFR CIGs look to fill over MRY into the late night. && .MARINE... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 447 AM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Moderate to fresh NW breezes and moderate build seas across the exposed coastal waters into the mid week. A cold front will increase winds to near gale force late Wednesday or early Thursday, building rough seas. Winds and seas ease into the weekend, but build again into the next work week with some chances for rain. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Wednesday to 3 AM PDT Thursday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Wednesday to 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM....JM AVIATION...Murdock MARINE...Murdock Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  003 FXUS61 KOKX 141153 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 753 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The Small Craft Advisory on the ocean has been extended thru the day from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Well above normal temperatures thru Friday. 2) Some showers and thunderstorms possible thru the period, but the best chances look to be north of the area. 2) Strong cold front Sunday with temperatures returning to near to slightly below normal Sunday night and Monday. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... The fcst remains on track for warm wx this week. The NBM was generally followed, although temps along the coasts of NY and CT were adjusted upwards today and Wed closer to the MAV and MET. It looks like the numbers may be weighted a little to heavily on the 2M model data in those spots. Similar adjustments may need to be made for both Thu and Fri. A lack of strong wly flow limits confidence in these areas torching out, but adjusting towards the MOS seemed fairly safe given the warm airmass building in. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Some shwrs and tstms possible thru the week with the area warm sectored. The main convergence zone however looks to remain N and W of the cwa. In this scenario, would expected initiation to generally occur outside of the cwa, then bleed into the area on storm flow or convectively induced boundaries, especially across the interior, for the late aftn and eve hours before completely falling apart. A shrtwv near the end of the week could provide a better focus for both initiation and intensity, but the timing will need to work out to allow for some instability to work with. Although the 00Z GFS has this feature passing thru during the day on Fri, the quicker AI-GFS produces practically nothing with an early mrng passage. Stuck with the NBM for pops and wx throughout the fcst. .KEY MESSAGE 3... A strong cold front is forecast to move through the region during Sunday, while there are still some timing difference, consenus is for a cold frontal passage Sunday afternoon. Showers will accompany the passage, with a chance of thunder as well. After a prolonged period of above normal temperatures, the cold front passage will return temperatures to near to slightly below normal Sunday night through Monday night. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Offshore high pressure to the south will remain in place. Weak low pressure will pass across upstate New York and New England late this afternoon into this evening, bringing a front closer to the Hudson Valley terminals. Mainly VFR through this evening. A late afternoon tstm possible at KSWF, also early evening at the NYC metros, with brief MVFR vsby reduction. Confidence high enough only to mention at KSWF. Fog is possible late tonight at the NYC metros and along the coast. Mostly light SW winds will become more southerly today and increase to 10-15kt with gusts 20-25 kt from the NYC metros north/west and 15- 20kt elsewhere. Winds become more SW-W and diminish to 10 kt or less tonight. LLWS possible at KGON/KISP tonight, with WSW flow 35-40 kt at FL020. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Some fog possible from 10Z-13Z. MVFR to IFR possible. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... Wednesday through Saturday: Mainly VFR, with chance of afternoon and evening showers/tstms each day, mainly NW of the NYC metros, with brief flight cat reduction to MVFR. SW winds could gust 15-20kt each afternoon Wed-Thu as well. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... The SCA for seas was extended thru the day on the ern 2/3 of the ocean, although it could be canceled a bit early if seas subside quick enough this aftn. Elsewhere, winds will be blw SCA lvls. Winds thru the Thu are expected to remain blw SCA lvls on all waters, but seas on the ocean will hover around 4ft, with 5ft waves possible at times. Despite a cold frontal passage on Fri, winds and waves are still expected to remain blw SCA lvls Fri and Sat attm. && .CLIMATE... Daily record high temperatures that could be reached: Wed, April 15: KEWR: 88/1960 KBDR: 81/1960 KNYC: 87/1941 KLGA: 86/1941 KJFK: 80/2006 KISP: 78/2024 Daily record high minimum temperatures that could be reached: Tue, April 14: KEWR: 62/2014 KBDR: 54/2023 KNYC: 70/2023 KLGA: 67/2023 KJFK: 55/2023 KISP: 54/2022 Wed, April 15: KEWR: 60/2023 KBDR: 53/2012 KNYC: 67/1941 KLGA: 64/1941 KJFK: 58/1960 KISP: 56/2023 Thu, April 16: KEWR: 64/2002 KBDR: 53/2002 KNYC: 69/2002 KLGA: 68/2002 KJFK: 57/2002 KISP: 55/2012 Fri, April 17: KEWR: 68/2002 KBDR: 57/2002 KNYC: 74/2002 KLGA: 73/2002 KJFK: 60/2002 KISP: 61/2002 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350- 353. && $$ DISCUSSION... AVIATION... MARINE...  941 FXUS64 KOUN 141155 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 655 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 640 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Strong to severe thunderstorms possible Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday. - Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will return several days this week, especially across portions of northwestern and far western Oklahoma. - Dry and cooler weather this weekend. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Tuesday) Issued at 221 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Drier air will again overspread parts of western and northern Oklahoma today, as a dryline mixes eastward. Naturally, models differ with the position of this feature. We will convert the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning for six counties across northwestern Oklahoma. This area will likely see humidity fall to around 20 percent by mid afternoon with strong wind gusts to 40 mph. There's also the potential for a few high-based showers across this area during the afternoon. Lightning is unlikely, but they could enhance wind gusts. Unlikely yesterday, there will be better upper-level support in the form a lead shortwave trough. This will bring better chances of thunderstorm development along and near a dryline by mid to late afternoon. There will likely be more mid to high clouds that arrive during the day which will limit insolation. Despite this, models suggest near surface instability of at least 2500 J/kg east of the dryline. Instability and deep layer shear is expected to be sufficient for supercell storms with a risk of very large hail and damaging winds. Thunderstorms that develop will move rather quickly to the northeast (30-40 mph) && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday night through Thursday night) Issued at 221 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Thunderstorms are expected to continue into at least the early to mid evening hours with a continued risk of severe weather, especially with any supercells. There should be a lull in thunderstorm develop from the late evening into parts of the overnight hours. However, the main upper trough will be approaching far West Texas Wednesday morning. Model guidance indicates showers and storms may develop by sunrise across portions of southern within an area of mid-level convergence. Confidence in this is not high, but certainly possible. Thunderstorm development during the day Wednesday should be earlier based on the position and movement of the upper trough. A more eastern position of a dryline, should limit severe chance across western Oklahoma and parts of western north Texas. However, central and eastern parts of Oklahoma may be impacted by another round of severe storms by early to mid afternoon. Most of the thunderstorms that form Wednesday afternoon should end by mid to late evening. Most of the day Thursday will be dry. However, near-critcal fire weather conditions may emerge across western Oklahoma and western north Texas Thursday afternoon. Afternoon highs are expected to warm into the upper 80s and lower 90s with afternoon humidity approaching 10-15 percent. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 221 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 On Friday, surface low pressure will deepen quickly, as an upper trough moves across the central and northern Rockies. How far east drier air will mix into far western Oklahoma during the afternoon is uncertain. However, there is the potential for a small area of near- critical to critical fire weather conditions across far western Oklahoma and northern Texas. The bigger story will be the potential for supercell storms to develop along and near a dryline during the afternoon and evening. Better forcing across the northern half of Oklahoma should favor better storm coverage. Still a lot of detail to be worked out, but Friday has the potential for rather impactful storms. Additional storms will likely form along a cold front which is expected to move across most of the area Friday evening and night. The front is expected to push well to our south and east on Saturday, so much of the upcoming weekend is expected to be dry with highs in the 60s to lower 70s. A southerly wind is expected to increase on Monday with most areas remaining dry. The exception may be a few showers across southern Oklahoma. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 640 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 MVFR ceilings are filling in across southeast Oklahoma including sites like DUA and OUN. There is a chance these low ceilings continue to spread northeastward into OKC, SPS, LAW this morning. Therefore MVFR ceilings were introduced at previously mentioned sites. The low clouds will lift later this morning and sites will return to VFR. Scattered severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening with all hazards possible. PROB30 was used at most sites given the uncertainty on exact location of storm development this afternoon. WWR has the lowest chances for any storms as it will likely remain west of the dryline, but CSM may also stay just west of the dryline. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 84 66 79 59 / 60 60 70 30 Hobart OK 88 63 85 53 / 50 60 50 20 Wichita Falls TX 85 67 83 59 / 60 70 60 20 Gage OK 89 56 83 48 / 20 20 20 10 Ponca City OK 87 66 80 56 / 50 50 70 40 Durant OK 82 67 78 64 / 30 50 80 60 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004-005-009-010-014-021. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...06 SHORT TERM...06 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...23  238 FXUS63 KLOT 141159 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 659 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Late spring to summer-like temperatures will continue through Friday with highs in the 70s and 80s and lows in the 60s. - Several additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms, including a threat for severe weather and flooding expected, especially late this afternoon/evening and again on Wednesday. - A brief break in the pattern is expected late Thursday into or through the day on Friday before another storm system arrives in the Friday evening to Saturday timeframe. - In the wake of the Saturday cold front, a brief, potentially sharp, shot of much cooler air could bring frost/freeze concerns into next Sunday and Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 328 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Today through Wednesday Night: A weakening MCS will continue drifting across northern Illinois through this morning in a weakening phase with a gusty outflow boundary surging out ahead of it. The OFB passage may bring a temporary period of onshore winds and notably cooler conditions to portions of the lakeshore (especially far NE IL) and perhaps patchy fog as well. Towards and after sunrise this morning, a question will be the extent to which widely scattered elevated convection (showers and isolated non-severe storms) may develop with southward extent behind the outflow boundary. Once any convection this morning fades out, expect the rest of the morning and into the early afternoon to be dry as the area once again becomes capped underneath a strong EML (elevated mixed layer) inversion. A likely key player the rest of this afternoon for the looming PM severe threat will be how far south the outflow boundary from the weakening MCS reaches, before retreating back north as an effective warm front. A farther south remnant outflow boundary could conceivably aid in a bit farther south convective initiation (CI) near the stalled warm front this afternoon than depicted verbatim by most of the CAM guidance. On the other hand, low clouds shifting southward in the wake of the OFB this morning will serve to limit insolation initially, potentially delaying stronger destabilization until the mid afternoon. Conceptually, the area to monitor for explosive CI this afternoon will in closer proximity to the stalled warm front (as previously noted), from northwest Illinois and northeast Iowa into southern Wisconsin. Satellite, observational, and mesoanalysis trends will need to monitored closely for any subtle 700 mb impulses that could help erode the cap as early as 3-5pm. A secondary possible area to watch for isolated storms by the mid to late afternoon will be into portions of central IL as a 500 mb vort lobe translates east-northeast. Ultimately, the lack of stronger large scale forcing (neutral h5 height tendencies) casts some uncertainty/conditionality to this setup. An ensemble of recent CAM solutions does suggest a realistic play for the daylight hours remaining dry across our CWA counties. With the OFB placement wildcard and possibility that subtle upstream impulses can sufficiently erode the cap, we maintained (30-50%) chance PoPs as early as 3-5 PM over the northwest 1/3 to 1/2 of the CWA, and stair-stepping gradually south from there. Once clouds scatter enough early this afternoon, several hours of diurnal heating and destabilization of the moist (dew points in the 60s) low-level air mass topped by very steep lapse rates aloft will yield a very favorable thermodynamic environment for severe storms (MLCAPE possibly at or bit upward of 3k J/kg). In the presence of about 40 kt of deep layer bulk shear, this will be a conditionally volatile environment for supercells capable of very large hail (2"+). If CI occurs into the CWA prior to sunset, somewhat weaker low-level flow and storm relative inflow (especially if sfc winds remain veered) would indeed favor damaging to potentially destructive hail as a primary threat initially. As the low-level jet diurnally intensifies into this evening, a notable tornado threat could also unfold into northeast IA, southern WI, and possibly far northern IL, given enlarged low- level hodographs. Any locally backed surface winds would further enhance SRH. With the above being said, despite the 3/5 severe threat level (enhanced risk) for locations north of I-80 today-tonight (Tuesday-Tuesday night), our confidence is a bit lower in storms effectively tapping into the volatile environment today within our CWA. A later after sunset arrival into far northern Illinois and mid-late evening farther south would give some time for instability to wane. Also, the relatively parallel alignment of the deep layer shear vector to the warm front should lead to a storm mode transition from supercells to upscale growth into forward propagating segments through the evening. Mismatched west-southwesterly 850-300 mb flow vs. propagation vectors towards the east-southeast may limit how far south and east an appreciable damaging wind (and embedded QLCS type tornado threat can reach). All in all, the area of greatest concern for potential significant severe weather is well outlined by the zone of 10% tornado probs in SPC's day 1 outlook, approximately near and north of a Dixon to Highland Park IL line. Additional storms should eventually fill in behind the evening activity overnight, favoring our highest official PoPs of the night into the 60-70% range. Hydrology may become an increased concern later tonight, particularly if repeated rounds of storms move over the same area. If this occurs, a notable threat of flash flooding will materialize, perhaps more than implied by a flood threat level of 1/4 (marginal risk) in WPC's excessive rainfall outlook. Exactly how the event will play out through tonight remains quite uncertain. With so much riding on the effects of prior convection into Wednesday morning, little can be gleaned about Wednesday PM's threat for strong to severe storms with any sort of confidence. It looks quite messy/muddled and we won't be able to sort things out until more is known about the environmental evolution. A 2/5 threat level (slight risk) remains targeted for areas northwest of I-55 in SPC's initial day 2 outlook, with a level 1/5 (marginal risk) I-55 and southeast, including Chicago. At present, independent of where any corridors of severe storms set up, likely veered surface winds, modest low-level flow just off the deck, and mid-level lapse rates not quite as steep, seem to point towards damaging winds as the primary threat after any initial hail threat. Mesoscale evolution may yield a localized enhanced tornado threat, as per the outlook discussion. Castro/KJB Thursday through Monday: There's variance regarding the progression of a cold front across the region, with some of the slower solutions holding onto some potential for storms into Thursday afternoon (particularly southeast ~1/2 of CWA). Thereafter, into Thursday night and at least the start of Friday, ensemble model guidance advertises a brief break in the stormy pattern as shortwave ridging moves through the Great Lakes ahead of a substantial trough digging into the central US. High temperatures look to rebound into the low to even mid 80s by Friday accompanied by another potential threat for strong to severe thunderstorms Friday night into Saturday. Thereafter, there is a reasonably strong signal in ensemble guidance for a cooldown to start next week. The key aspect for the weekend into early next week cooldown is a recent trend towards a much cooler air mass due to trough amplification over the region. If this comes to pass, parts of the area may flirt with sub-freezing temperatures Saturday night into early Sunday, and again Sunday night into next Monday morning. With the summer-like warmth and rain this week supercharging plant growth and leaf out, the magnitude of the weekend cold shot will be one to watch for agricultural interests. Castro/Borchardt && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 658 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Main Concern: - Timing of next rounds of TS later this afternoon into Wednesday morning, with the highest threat for severe weather through this evening. - Wind direction trends this morning and in/near TS this afternoon-evening onward. The clusters of showers and thunderstorms moving across the Chicago area as of this writing will exit east by ~13z (possibly a bit later for GYY). In the wake of this morning convection, currently east and southeast winds should take a couple hours to fully return to breezy southwesterly. It remains highly uncertain if/when additional storms will affect the terminals later today. Overall, it appears RFD has the highest chance to be directly impacted prior to mid evening. With that said, we certainly can't rule out TS as early as mid-late afternoon at any TAF site. Given the uncertainty, maintained PROB30s in the TAFs. Sufficiently early TS impacts would include a threat for large to destructive hail as the main severe threat, with RFD having the overall highest chance (as well as a +FC threat). There's a bit better signal for showers and embedded TS to fill in later in the evening and especially overnight. Confidence is still on the lower side for this period, and opted for a broad brushed -SHRA VCTS mention with MVFR VSBY. Fairly widespread showers with low (but likely not zero) embedded TS coverage appear likely on Wednesday morning. Withheld any additional PROB30 TS mention in this window, with better chances favored south of the terminals. Lighter southwest winds are likely outside of convective effects tonight. Any direct impacts from TS will likely cause erratic and strong/gusty winds through this evening, with wind direction and speed variability to follow overnight and possibly into Wednesday morning. Finally, some patchy 2-3kft CIGs may develop tonight-Wednesday morning. Castro && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago