168 FXUS63 KGID 141201 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 701 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...Aviation Update... .KEY MESSAGES... - Fire weather today: the overall-highest fire weather concerns will target our NE/KS counties along and south of the state line, where outright-critical conditions are likely due to the combination of stronger southwest winds gusting at least 25-35 MPH, and relative humidity falling to at least 15-20 percent. As a result, a Red Flag Warning has been issued from Noon until 9 PM for most of our counties along and south of the Nebraska-Kansas border. - Spotty thunderstorms this evening-tonight ("sneaky" severe?): Isolated to perhaps scattered thunderstorms will be possible almost anywhere in our forecast area. While the vast majority of this hit-or-miss activity should be fairly weak, a few storms could MAYBE become strong to marginally-severe, capable of producing hail up to around the size of quarters, and/or wind gusts up to around 60 MPH. However, the vast majority of potential severe weather this evening and overnight will surely focus slightly east of our forecast area altogether. - On the very edge of another severe storm risk Friday: Another chance for thunderstorms arrives Friday afternoon and evening for mainly the eastern half of our forecast area. It is still too early to determine whether any threat for severe storms might exist for our area, or instead concentrate slightly off to our south and east. - Strong north-northwest winds Friday into Friday night: Our entire forecast area will have strong north-northwest winds Friday into Friday night, with sustained speeds of at least 30 MPH and gusts of at least 40 MPH likely. - Almost daily fire weather concerns Thurs onward: Each afternoon between Thursday and Monday, at least near-critical fire weather conditions are forecast develop within at least parts of our forecast area. A few days could also see fire weather conditions reach critical levels, including already on Thursday. - Slightly sub-freezing temperatures possible this weekend: For those who already have concerns for freezing temperatures and impacts to gardening or irrigation systems, at least slightly sub-freezing temperatures appear possible Saturday morning, but are probably more likely Sunday morning. && .UPDATE... Issued at 520 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 -- FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE, BIG PICTURE COMMENTS, AND ANY ABBREVIATED LONGER-TERM FORECAST NOTES (for beyond Wednesday): - In the interest of time, really going to keep the focus here on these first 36 hours. For anything beyond that, the highlights are covered in KEY MESSAGES above. - That being said, one thing worth pointing out in the longer term is the CONSIDERABLE uncertainty that still exists for Friday's strong cold frontal passage timing, and the resultant impact on high temperatures, severe thunderstorm potential etc. At this time, the NAM/ECMWF are noticeably faster with this frontal passage than the GFS, which if the faster solution were to verify could render our currently-forecast high temps at least 10+ degrees too warm, and also more solidly shunt any severe storm risk in the afternoon- evening at least slightly south- through east of our CWA (SPC officially barely clips our southeast edges with their latest Day 4 "Slight Risk equivalent/15% area). - For all fire-weather related concerns (including today's Red Flag Warning), see separate Fire Weather section below for more details. -- FOCUS SOLELY ON THE SHORTER-TERM/NEXT 36 HOURS (through late Wed afternoon/early evening): - CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 4 AM/general comments: Although a rogue strong thunderstorm developed late yesterday afternoon/early evening in our far northern CWA (affecting mainly Greeley County), as expected we remained both well- southwest and well-northwest of the main rounds of severe storms in the greater region. We will likely remain very slightly west of the main threat areas over these next 24-36 hours, but close enough to at least modest elevated instability that a few "surprise" strong to even marginally-severe storms cannot be ruled out. Early this morning, all is quiet across the CWA, as we reside under almost entirely clear skies. In the mid-upper levels, water vapor satellite imagery and short term model data confirm continued broad southwesterly flow aloft, with the first of two primary/large-scale upper troughs of the week very slowly approaching from the Intermountain West/Rockies. At the surface, a weak but fairly well defined low pressure center (around 1002 millibars) resides over our KS zones. Due to the position of this low, a west-southwest to east-northeast oriented quasi- stationary front bisects our southern CWA, separating light-but steady northerly breezes to its north, from light and generally southerly breezes to its south. Low temps are on track to bottom out within a few degrees either side of 50 most areas (except closer to 60 far southeast around Mitchell County KS). - TODAY (through around 6-7 PM): Although we bring in some small chances (mainly 20-30%) for spotty showers/thunderstorms late this afternoon, odds strongly favor the vast majority of our CWA staying rain-free through at least 6-7 PM. Aloft, the main upper system will approach from the CO area, causing another surface low pressure center to take shape over mainly northwest KS by late in the day. The trickiest part of today's forecast really boils down to the exact position of the aforementioned quasi-stationary front, which is expected to remain very near the NE/KS border through much of the day, but perhaps TRY lifting north up toward Highway 6. To the north of the front, generally east-northeasterly breezes 10-20 MPH will prevail with high temperatures mainly in the 70s-low 80s, while south of the boundary, gusty southwest winds will develop (gusts easily 25-35 MPH especially in KS), allowing temps to soar into the mid-upper 80s and promoting resultant fire weather concerns. - THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT: As the night wears on, the main upper trough/mid level closed low will track closer, reaching the NE/KS/CO border area by sunrise Wednesday. At the surface, another low pressure center will track eastward through our southern CWA, reaching roughly the Hebron area by sunrise. As this low tracks through, it will keep that same generally west-east frontal boundary in place through much of the night, with northeasterly winds prevailing over most of our CWA to its north, and southerly breezes into at least the first part of the night in our far south, but even there eventually turning more northerly/northwesterly as the surface low tracks east. In terms of convective/rain potential, high-res models such as from HRRR/NAMNest clearly keep the main threat for any severe storms (especially surface-based ones) slightly east-through- southeast of our CWA..more within the main low-level instability axis and low-level jet axis. However, this forecaster is still a little concerned that we get see a rogue strong to marginally- severe storm or two overnight (likely of the elevated variety), as the increased lift from the approaching trough interacts with pockets of at least 500-1000 J/kg elevated CAPE (possibly upward of 1500 J/kg in our far southeast), in the presence of very strong deep-layer shear on the order of 60-70+KT. In theory, any spotty severe in our area would favor our extreme southeast fringes (where SPC did introduce a Marginal Risk/level 1), but feel that almost anywhere (even our west) could see a rogue, marginally-severe hail threat as lift impinges upon the elevated instability. All that being said, the actual COVERAGE of storms in our CWA this evening-overnight will be isolated-to-scattered at best, and thus kept PoPs fairly modest. Low temps tonight are aimed fairly similar to this morning...most places upper 40s-low 50s. - WEDNESDAY DAYTIME: Over the course of the day, the main upper low/trough axis tracks directly through the heart of our CWA/general region from west-to-east, reaching the IA/NE border area by sunset. As the associated surface low tracks east in tandem, our breezes will turn more west-northwesterly at generally 10-15 MPH with some higher gusts. Precip/storm-wise, "in theory" we do not have a severe threat, and the coverage of any showers/storms should again be isolates/scattered at best. HOWEVER, pockets of lingering instability to at least 500 J/kg, aided by cooling aloft from the deep trough passing overhead, have been known to produce "surprise" marginally-severe storms with perhaps a hail threat or even a random funnel cloud (probably not reaching the ground) in these kind of setups around here, so that probably cannot be totally ruled out. Kept modest PoPs going across much of our CWA, but overall-highest chances currently appear to focus/near north of I-80. Any lingering activity should depart our far eastern counties by 5-7 PM. In other departments, high temps were nudged down slightly...most places aimed between 71-75 degrees. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1221 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A discussion on fire-weather-specific information can be found in the Fire section below. Surface low pressure located near Kearney at mid day will gradually develop northeast toward Albion through this afternoon. Warm and dry air will overspread the entire area this afternoon. One thing to watch this afternoon will be a low-end potential for isolated convection to develop in the wraparound moisture on the west side of the surface low. We most likely should stay precipitation free, but there's about a 10% chance for development in far northern counties of the forecast area around 5 PM, and a better chance farther north. As we get into the overnight hours and the low pressure moves off to the northeast, cooler and moisture air will push south into many of our Nebraska counties while new low pressure develops in northwest KS. This front will likely stall in the vicinity of the KS/NE border and hang out in that area on Tuesday. Expect a good pool of low level moisture immediately on the cool side of the front while areas to the south remain warm and in a dry airmass. While a ribbon of instability is likely to develop near/north of the front, there will be a very strong cap in place and surface based storms are not expected. As we get a bit deeper into the evening, there is some potential for increased convergence along and just north of the boundary to provide a semi-favorable environment for breaking the cap, but would require significant moisture transport and pooling through a pretty good depth and into the warm layer aloft. As of now, forecast soundings are not favorable for thunderstorm development, and if it does happen would stand a better chance with eastward extent. Farther north, closer to the core of a short wave trough with weaker cap and stronger forcing, there is a better chance for showers or a few thunderstorms to develop and skirt across our northern counties, but truthfully that precip potential is greater farther to the north. A few wraparound showers could linger into Wednesday, depending on how quickly the system moves off to the east. Overall, this system does not look particularly rainy for south central NE or north central KS. After a period of mid level ridging on Thursday, there is good model agreement with high probability for a strong storm system tracking from Colorado across KS/NE late Friday into Saturday. This has the look (and the temperature profile) of a classic spring system with thunderstorms ahead of the low, snow on the northwest quadrant, and plenty of wind for everyone. Any severe storm potential will be highly dependent upon timing of the storm system, and current indications suggest a higher likelihood of severe storms east of the local forecast area, so we'll be watching potential for the system to slow down and pull better moisture back to the west. The snow potential will also be highly dependent upon the storm track, and right now the greatest potential appears to be north of the local forecast area. Where it does snow, it will be accompanied by strong winds, and so this too is worth very closely monitoring as it could make for hazardous travel conditions Friday night into Saturday morning. After this system, should see a period of slightly cooler conditions with calmer weather overall...at least into the first couple days of next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 700 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: High confidence in VFR ceiling/visibility through the period, although increasing mid-level clouds could bring a ceiling down into the 5-10K ft. range this evening-overnight, along with a fairly small (generally 30%) chance for a passing shower/thunderstorm or two. Severe storms are fairly unlikely in any pass through, but small hail probably cannot be ruled out. Given the fairly low probability of occurrence, have continued to handle thunderstorm chances with PROB30 groups. As for winds, they will remain steady...breezy at times...but not overly-strong throughout the period. Sustained speeds will commonly be 10-15KT/gusts 15-20KT...possibly 20+KT especially 16-20Z time frame. Direction will remain fairly consistent, mainly varying between northeasterly to northerly, as both KGRI/KEAR remain north of a frontal boundary positioned roughly near the NE/KS border. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 520 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING: Unlike yesterday's more widespread critical fire weather conditions that affected most of our CWA, today's main threat area will be more focused near and especially south of the NE/KS border...to the south of a relatively sharp, west- southwest to east- northeast oriented quasi-stationary front. South of this front, a hot/deeply mixed airmass will exist with temps at least mid-upper 80s and southwest winds gusting at least 25-35 MPH (40 MPH probably cannot be ruled out, especially in KS). Given these winds and relative humidity (RH) expected to crash down between 15-20%, critical fire weather conditions are likely to develop. As a result, the previous Fire Weather Watch was "upgraded" to a Red Flag Warning for our 6 KS counties, and we also tacked on most of our adjacent Nebraska counties along the state line. At least near-critical conditions with slightly higher RH/slightly lighter winds will probably extend another 1-2 counties north of the Warning (at least getting into some of our Highway 6 counties in Nebraska). - THURSDAY: Following somewhat of a break in fire weather concerns on Wednesday due to slightly cooler temps/lighter winds, concerns return in earnest already Thursday afternoon-early evening as high temperatures again jump into at least the low-mid 80s in the presence of southerly winds sustained around 20 MPH/gusting at least 25 MPH (probably higher). Relative humidity is currently forecast to fall to as low as 10-20% for most of our CWA, making this a decent candidate for our next Warning day...particularly in the western half of our area. FRIDAY-MONDAY: Despite cooler temperatures than the last few days and those on Thursday, each of these days will likely feature at least limited coverage of near- critical conditions, with pockets of outright- critical possible. More details will be provided as these days get closer in time. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ083>087. KS...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005>007-017>019. && $$ UPDATE...Pfannkuch DISCUSSION...Barjenbruch (OAX) AVIATION...Pfannkuch FIRE WEATHER...Pfannkuch  728 FXUS65 KBOI 141202 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 602 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Drier today with normal temperatures. - Rain and mountain snow Wednesday, then snow level lowering to valley floors before ending late Wednesday night/Thursday morning. - Subfreezing morning temperatures Thursday through Saturday across the entire area. && .SHORT TERM /Through Thursday Night/... Issued 311 AM MDT TUE APR 14 2026 Weak ridging aloft from the north Pacific will pass through our CWA today, bringing drier weather with normal temperatures. The next upper trough from the Gulf of Alaska will spread more rain (snow above 5000 feet MSL north to 6500 feet south) into our CWA tonight through Wednesday night. The system's cold front should pass through eastern OR midday Wednesday and western ID Wednesday afternoon/evening, followed by even colder air than the previous system. Snow level will lower to valley floors late Wednesday night but most models show pcpn ending by then. GFS, however, has a band of moisture behind the front that passes through our CWA toward sunrise Thursday morning when the air is easily cold enough to support snow. For now we'll stay with the model consensus suggesting little or no snow in the lower valleys, but we remain ready for any model changes in the next two cycles. For now, we can offer a 20 percent chance of a half- inch snow accumulation in the Treasure valley early Thursday morning, with a 40 percent chance of up to an inch in the Magic Valley. Thursday looks breezy, drier, and cold, as the upper trough passes through. Thursday night will be clearing and calming and quite cold, with lows in the teens and 20s, cold enough to damage new plants unless they are covered. && .LONG TERM /Friday through Tuesday/... Issued 311 AM MDT TUE APR 14 2026 Friday will mark the start of a warming and drying trend to end the week. As the system in the short-term period exits to the east, ridging will begin to build in behind it. High temperatures come Friday will still be below normal, but 5-10 degrees warmer than Thursday. The drying trend will allow for overnight valley lows to be at or near freezing through Saturday morning. A 15-50% chance of precipitation will remain over the Boise Mountains and Valley County Friday (highest in northeastern Valley County), associated with lingering wrap-around moisture as the low moves east. Gusty west/northwest winds will persist in the usual windy areas east of Mountain Home, with gusts up to around 30 mph. The warming trend will continue through the weekend, with temperatures leaning above normal again by Sunday. Confidence continues to increase on another low digging down from the Gulf of Alaska early next week, although timing continues to be uncertain on exactly when it will impact our area. However, right now ensembles favor the late Sunday/Monday timeframe. With that, precipitation chances will increase from west to east Saturday afternoon into Monday, reaching 30-60% area-wide come Monday afternoon. Precipitation chances will remain elevated through Tuesday. The exact timing, and therefore best precipitation chances, should become more clear in future forecasts. Regardless of the exact timing of the system, temperatures will cool to be near normal when it impacts our area. Winds will also become breezy/gusty, from the south/ southeast ahead of and north/northwest following the system. && .AVIATION /12Z Tuesday through Wednesday/... Issued 602 AM MDT TUE APR 14 2026 Generally VFR. Isolated showers this morning. Areas of fog/low stratus resulting in localized MVFR-LIFR conditions this morning. Areas of mtn obscuration. Showers increasing from W-E early Wed/AM. Snow Levels: 3.5-5.5 kft MSL this morning, 5-6.5 kft MSL by early Wed/AM. Surface winds: SW-NW 5-15 kt this afternoon with gusts up to 25 kt near KTWF/KJER. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-NW 5-20 kt KBOI...Generally VFR. Brief MVFR ceilings possible (25% chance) between Mon/13-15z. Rain showers returning early Wed/AM with increasing clouds and lowering ceilings. Surface winds: Becoming NW 5-10 kt late this morning, then variable leaning SE under 10kt overnight tonight. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....NF SHORT TERM...LC LONG TERM....NF  032 FXUS63 KMKX 141209 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 709 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Significant severe weather event remains forecast this afternoon & evening (peak intensity 3-10 PM). All severe weather hazards, including very large hail greater than golf ball size and tornadoes, are possible. Seek immediate shelter if a warning is issued for your area later today. - Additional severe storms possible Wednesday afternoon if a front remains stalled across the area. If the front sets up south of the area, severe potential will greatly decrease. - Heavy rainfall could lead to additional periods of flooding this afternoon into Wednesday. Additional Flood Watches are possible. - Additional windows for heavy rainfall, flooding, and severe thunderstorms Friday into Saturday. All severe hazards will be possible later Tuesday afternoon into the evening. && .UPDATE... Issued 710 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Quiet weather and sunny weather prevails through this morning, which unfortunately bodes poorly for severe weather potential later today. Expecting an abundance of sunshine to allow a warm front to return back into the area by mid-day, which will be further ushered northward by a broad area of low pressure over northeast Iowa/southeastern Minnesota. Northward return of the front, in addition to an abundance of sunshine, will allow for ample instability to build back into the area by late afternoon. Guidance suggests that rapid convective initiation will occur by mid-late afternoon as falling surface pressures begin to encroach upon an uncapping boundary layer. Extent of initiation appears to be at least scattered in coverage, with more numerous development possible if the lake breeze also gets active. Shear profiles will be supportive for initially discrete/supercellular development as storms form, with very unstable conditions aloft being supportive for large to very large hail exceeding the size of golf balls. Straight line wind threat & some tornado potential will also accompany the discrete storm development, although modest low level flow through mid-late afternoon (~2-6 PM) & shorter hodographs pose some uncertainty as to how widespread any tornado potential will be through the beginning phases of the event. How long a discrete mode will be able to maintain will depend upon the extent of convective development, with more widespread initiation making cell mergers & upscale growth increasingly favored by early evening. In the event initiation stays more scattered & storms remain well-separated from one another, discrete modes will remain favored into early evening. A potentially concerning phase of the event then begins near/after 6 PM, and will continue into at least the middle portions of the evening hours (~9-10 PM). A southwesterly low level jet will be steadily increasing to & through 40 kts during this time period, which will act to enhance previously modest low level hodograph curvature in advance of thunderstorms. This will create an increasingly favorable environment for low level rotation & potential tornadoes in storms. Have concerns for this potential even if storms have upscaled into one or more clusters, as low level thermodynamics and wind shear will be plenty conducive for QLCS-type tornadoes. Additional wind and hail potential will accompany the tornado threat. Storms then look to push out over Lake Michigan between 11 PM and 2 AM. Above set-up aside, the last trend to monitor will be the evolution of the returning warm sector as it comes back toward the area from Iowa & western Illinois this afternoon. Majority of available guidance suggests that unstable air will make it into the area uncontaminated, putting the entirety of the region in line for storm development by late afternoon. If, however, storms fire earlier in the day in the returning warm/moist air mass over eastern Iowa & northwest Illinois, the northern extent of severe potential could be curbed in our area. This scenario is currently a strong minority in available guidance, and is thus being treated as outlier for the time-being, but is one to be aware of nonetheless. Will be monitoring trends regarding all of the above very closely through today. Given the potential for widespread severe weather, have multiple ways of receiving warning information, including methods that will be available in the event of power outages. Move to shelter immediately if a warning is issued for your area. Quigley && .SHORT TERM... Issued 1220 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Tonight through Tuesday night: A line of thunderstorms will roll through the forecast area over the next few hours, as low pressure approaches along a stalled frontal boundary. The main threat through 2-4 am will be damaging winds, though an isolated tornado will be possible. Given sustained instability overnight along with WSW 0-3 km shear around 40 knots, any storm line segments that become more north/south oriented could bow out increasing the wind threat and also producing a QLCS tornado threat. The flooding concern remains overnight as well, as the line of storms across the northern forecast area slowly sags southward tonight, with some back building currently evident over southeast MN and northeast IA. Storms may linger in the southeast forecast area towards around daybreak, with dry weather then likely through the morning hours. Attention then turns to another severe storm threat during the afternoon and evening hours. The stalled frontal boundary will be set up around the far northern forecast area in the afternoon, as another weak surface low and shortwave approach from the west. Plenty of instability is expected across at least the south half of the forecast area, with surface based CAPE of at least 3000 J/KG. Additionally, wind profiles look more than sufficient for severe storms as a 45 kt LLJ noses from the south by late afternoon. All severe hazards will be possible as storms initialize between 3 and 6 pm, with a decent chance for supercell development. Storms will likely eventually organize into line or two, with the severe threat leaning more towards wind and QLCS tornado at that point. Locally heavy rainfall and flooding will be a concern as well, especially if storms roll through the same areas that received the heavier rainfall the last couple days. Adding to this concern as that some of the latest models do show that a line of storms may set up west to east across the southern half of the forecast area tomorrow night, with some training possible. DDV && .LONG TERM... Issued 1220 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Wednesday through Sunday: It is still looking like the frontal boundary could remain far enough north on Wednesday for another severe storm threat. This will somewhat depend on what happens Tuesday/Tuesday night and where the effective front ends up because of that round of storms. Overall though, there is enough confidence to continue to message a severe threat, with locally heavy rainfall also a concern again. Storms may linger Wednesday night into early Thursday, with a break in activity then likely Thu afternoon into at least Friday morning. Yet another round of storms is then possible Friday evening into Saturday morning as a cold front finally pushes through the region. The later timing of this front may somewhat diminish the severe threat, due to the better interaction with peak daytime heating Friday remaining to the west. Plenty of time though for timing to change, so this period remains worth keeping an eye on. Much cooler conditions are expected to settle into the area this weekend behind the departing low and cold front. Highs will likely struggle to get out of the 40s by Sunday. It looks mainly dry Sat afternoon through Sunday, though not out of the question for a few snowflakes in the north Sat night as a shortwave rolls through. DDV && .AVIATION... Issued 710 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR flight categories continue through this morning, with strong to severe storm development this afternoon. Reduced CIGs and VIS readings will accompany the storms. Quigley && .MARINE... Issued 1220 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Shower and thunderstorm activity is expected across lake Michigan late into tonight as low pressure of 29.6 inches over southeast Minnesota continues to head northeast. Winds will be easterly north of a frontal boundary across roughly the northern half of the lake, with southerly winds expected in the south. Then expecting another a couple passing low pressure system to develop in the Plains and track across Lake Michigan again on Tuesday and Wednesday. Each system will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms through the middle of the week. Areas of dense fog will likely occur at times due to a relatively mild and humid airmass over the cold waters paired with lighter winds. DDV && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Flood Watch...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-WIZ057-WIZ058- WIZ059-WIZ060 until 7 AM Tuesday. LM...Dense Fog Advisory...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565- LMZ567-LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673- LMZ675-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876 until 7 AM Wednesday. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee  319 FXUS63 KMQT 141218 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 818 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Morning fog may be dense at times, but then diminishes into the afternoon. - A period of generally dry weather is expected today and tonight, though some showers and storms may graze the UP. Additional waves of showers and storms move through Wednesday onwards. - A prolonged period of well above freezing temperatures and higher dewpoints will bring increased snowmelt. This, combined with periods of potentially heavy rainfall and thunderstorms, will accelerate river rises and lead to ponding of water in areas with poor drainage. A Flood Watch remains in place for all of Upper Michigan through Wednesday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 244 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Early this morning, low pressure is analyzed over IA, with a baroclinic zone extending northeast of this all the way through the northern LP. Forcing along this boundary was able to bring in quite a bit of rain to the UP tonight, but this is tapering off from west to east at this time; rain should entirely in the eastern UP into the pre-dawn hours. In its wake, with plenty of low-level moisture and light winds, areas of fog are developing across the UP, dense at times across the central and eastern UP. Otherwise, expect a mild night with temperatures only falling as far as the mid 30s near Lake Superior, and the upper 30s and lower 40s elsewhere. Expect a period of generally drier weather conditions as weak ridging builds in from northern Ontario today through Wednesday. Hopefully the slightly cooler air from northern Ontario and drier conditions will help to reduce the flooding risk across the area for the rest of this week. That being said, a couple of weak shortwaves moving through the Upper Midwest could bring additional showers and thunderstorms to the U.P. later this evening into tonight, the first grazing us to the north and the other to the south. Whether this shortwave brings precipitation into the U.P. or not will depend on the strength of the ridging from northern Ontario. In spite of lackluster QPF, however, flooding concerns will continue at least through today with the ongoing snowmelt and lingering impacts from this past night's rain. Otherwise, expect another warm day as temperatures peak in the 40s near Lake Superior, the 50s inland over the eastern UP, and the lower/mid 60s across the interior of the central and western UP. Temperatures fall back into the mid 30s to mid 40s tonight before peaking again in the 40s and 50s for most on Wednesday. Another shortwave low moving through the Upper Midwest could bring additional rain showers and thunderstorms to the area late Wednesday into Thursday. This remains conditional on the strength of ridging extending from Ontario, which could suppress this feature more to the south over the Lower Peninsula. The warmest conditions of the weak move in on Friday as a cold air from northern Canada causes a robust cold front to develop across the central CONUS late this week. With PWATs looking to rapidly increase to around 1 inch in the warm sector via Gulf air ahead of the cold front, the NBM brings up to a 90% chance for temperatures greater than 70 to the western half of the U.P. as dewpoints have a 20 to 50% chance of exceeding 50 degrees (highest chances in the south central and interior west). Combined with intensifying southerly winds, this becomes a recipe for accelerating snowmelt on the snowpack that we have left across the area. Now, where guidance diverges for this week is whether or not a shortwave low lifts through the area before and/or after the arrival of the cold front. Expect higher rain totals if a shortwave rolls through the area before the cold front moves through, as the cold front could bring additional showers and storms across the area into early this weekend. However, if a shortwave low rolls through the area immediately behind the cold front (like the latest deterministic Euro is suggesting), then the western half of the U.P. may be in for a significant wet snowfall event. Therefore, while the confidence is low at this time, we will keep an eye out to see if model guidance continues to converge on a solution. Regardless, there is fairly good agreement that colder temperatures and at the very least light snowfall will be seen over the northwest to west wind snow belts behind the cold front to end the weekend. Expect a transition to more normal temperatures early next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 818 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Widespread IFR/LIFR continues today with soupy weather as weak upslope flow combines with ample low level moisture moving across the cold waters of Lake Superior and snowpack. Expect VLIFR this morning at SAW and CMX but vsby and cigs should lift to LIFR this afternoon with daytime heating. Expecting a repeat again tonight with overnight cooling and continued moist, weak flow. && .MARINE... Issued at 244 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 NE winds continue to gust to around 20kts across the western arm of the lake, but slowly decrease this afternoon. Meanwhile, areas of fog are developing across the lake this morning, and may be dense at times. Fog diminishes into the afternoon ahead of another batch of showers (with some thunder) moving over the lake his evening. Fog develops again tonight into early Wednesday. Otherwise, expect winds generally from the N to NE to remain below 20kts Wednesday through Thursday. The main pattern shift for the period looks to come late this week through this weekend as a cold front approaches from the central CONUS. Winds intensify out of the south and southeast Friday, with over a 30% chance (highest over the open waters of the eastern half of the lake) of increasing to gales of at least 34 knots by Friday night before the cold front moves through the lake around the Saturday time period. Behind the cold front, as the strong cold air advection improves mixing of the higher winds aloft to the sfc, expect the winds to become northwesterly as gale chances increase up to 50% late in the day through Saturday night. In addition to the winds, some thunderstorms may be seen ahead of and along the cold front late Friday into Saturday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 244 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 In response to the ongoing snowmelt and lingering impacts from heavy rainfall that occurred this past night, river rises and flooding of low-lying areas are expected/are occurring across Upper Michigan, particularly over the south central where another 1-2 inches fell. While much of the area near Wisconsin lost the entirety of their snowpack, several inches to over a foot(!) of SWE remains over the Keweenaw and higher elevations of the north central U.P., as well as portions of the eastern U.P. upslope from Lake Superior over the northwest wind belts. Thus, while flooding concerns look to start dwindling over the areas near Wisconsin after Tuesday, expect continued snowmelt over the remaining areas to continue river rises over those areas with or downbasin from an area with notable snowpack remaining. Because of this and the rainfall chances expected through the rest of this week, river flooding to bankfull conditions are being seen across several rivers across Upper Michigan. Starting with the Black River near Bessemer, the quick loss of snowpack with the rainfall yesterday has created Minor Flooding conditions which are forecasted to continue until Tuesday; bankfull conditions for the Black River look to continue until Tuesday night. Moving over to the Sturgeon River at Alston, Minor Flooding is currently being realized; with plenty of snowpack left to melt, expect the river levels to slowly rise the rest of this week into early this weekend. The high river levels at Alston and high flow at Prickett Dam may also bring elevated river levels to Chassell later this week; we will continue to monitor the local observations over there and issue products accordingly should bankfull and/or floodstage be achieved along the Sturgeon River at Chassell. Moving along to the Paint River at Crystal Falls, Moderate Flooding is expected starting late Tuesday as we move into Minor Flood Stage this evening. While not quite looking to get into Major Flood Stage, river heights are currently expected to get up to 8.5", which does start to approach the River Flood of Record. Moving into the Michigamme River basin, some bankfull conditions to Minor River Flooding looks possible at Bangston Bridge and Witch Lake late this week as the snowmelt in the basin progressively melts and increases flows with time. As for the Ford River, we are currently flirting with bankfull conditions this afternoon and could go over tonight given the chances for rainfall (some potentially heavy at times). Moving over to the Escanaba River, bankfull to Minor River Flood conditions are expected over the Middle Branch at Humboldt and the Eastern Branch at Gwinn. Given the recent call with one of the dam operators in Escanaba about the high flows, will continue to keep an eye on the snowmelt in the north central as rainfall moving through tonight could help to push- up cfs to hazardous levels. As for the Sturgeon River (Delta County) at Nahma Junction, the recent heavy rainfall and snowmelt has caused river levels to exceed bankfull; I'd be shocked if the river doesn't go into Minor Flood Stage shortly as even the HEFS shows the river at about 100% for getting into Minor Flood Stage. As for the Manistique River, the increasing snowmelt and heavy rainfall recently (and potentially tonight) could bring above bankfull river levels, potentially causing ponding of water and inundation in low- lying areas near the river Tuesday and beyond; a Flood Advisory may need to be issued for this river's area of influence in the future. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for MIZ001>007-009>014- 084-085. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...LC AVIATION...BW/NL MARINE...LC HYDROLOGY...  756 FXUS64 KLCH 141223 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 723 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 80s for a majority of the area, with some low 90s possible. - Next good chance for showers and thunderstorms comes in next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Monday) Issued at 1200 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Surface analysis shows strong high pressure off the East Coast that is causing our persistent onshore flow. Aloft, ridging is centered over Georgia and is the main factor for why we are so dry and warm. Our pattern will remain consistent for the rest of the week as the upper-level ridge remains stationary. The day-to-day forecast will be unchanging with a persistence forecast. Afternoon temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s. Parts of central Louisiana could see their first 90-degree days at the end of the week. This would be about a month earlier than normal, but it is not a guarantee, with probabilities around 50% or a coin flip. Even if we dont hit 90, we are still looking at temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal as our 500 mb heights remain above the 95th percentile. For the rest of the week, rain chances will be near zero with the occasional afternoon shower. Heading into the weekend, we will finally see a change in our pattern as a trough in the upper Plains pushes a cold front to the coast. With the front, we will see a dip in temperatures along with the first decent rain chances in a week. It is still too far out for any specifics, but any rain will be appreciated to help with the ongoing drought conditions. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 719 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Pilots flying in and out of the SE Texas and south Louisiana airports can expect VFR conditions over the next 24 hours. There are some low ceilings in spots across the region, however, any ceilings that are sub VFR should lift within the next 30 minutes or so. South breezes will persist through the afternoon, with gusts possibly reaching 15 to 20 knots at times. Chances favor little to no rain through Saturday afternoon. Safe Travels. && .MARINE... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Flow will remain onshore for the remainder of the forecast period with winds between 10 to 15 knots. Waves will be below 5 feet. No convection is expected for the rest of the week but a front will impact the area over the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Persistent south winds will continue to keep our minimum RH values above 50% for the rest of the week. Rain chances will stay near zero this week with KBDI values continuing to climb across the most of the CWA between 400 and 500. Rain chances will increase over the weekend with a frontal passage. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...14 AVIATION...29  398 FXUS63 KIWX 141227 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 827 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A complex of showers and thunderstorms will shift southeast across the southern Great Lakes this morning bringing a potential of some gusty winds and brief heavy rain. Some uncertainty persists with how far southeast this band of showers and thunderstorms will survive this morning. - Isolated storms are possible this afternoon, especially across northwest into portions of north central IN. However great chances of thunderstorms will be this evening into the early morning hours Wednesday. There is a Slight Risk of severe storms tonight with damaging wind gusts to 60 mph and hail to 1 to 2 inches in diameter as primary threats. An isolated tornado is possible, but of lower confidence. - Locally heavy rainfall is possible tonight into Wednesday which may result in some renewed areal and river flooding concerns. - Above normal temperatures will continue into this first part of weekend before a cold front brings below normal temperatures. && .UPDATE... Issued at 821 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Quick update to the grids to increase pops this morning based on current radar trends. The outflow boundary that was responsible for the uptick in overnight showers/storms has accelerated south, ending the threat of convection with that feature for the time being. An area of showers and storms was working through NE IL into NW Indiana with some new development ahead of it. It still remains uncertain how far east this will make it before weakening. No severe threat is expected with this activity, with locally heavy rain and maybe some gusty winds the main concern. Pops are highest in the west with a decreasing trend eastward with everything done by 18Z (if not before). Most likely the afternoon and early evening hours will be precip free as it will take time to destabilize once again. The outflow boundary is likely to modulate back north and could be a focus for some isolated storms. However, the greatest concerns still exist later this evening into the overnight hours with some signals indicating a somewhat increased threat for damaging winds as the upstream convection races east. Something to sort out in the afternoon package. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 322 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A complicated forecast over the next 72 hours with several rounds of convection possible. Severe weather is possible each day through Thursday, with greatest confidence in scattered severe storms tonight. A convective complex is ongoing this morning across Wisconsin to the Lake Michigan vicinity with an associated outflow boundary extending from northeast Iowa to far southeast Wisconsin. This convective system has shown signs of both downwind propagation (eastward across east central Wisconsin) and upwind propagation (southeastward across south central Wisconsin). A strong low level jet feeding into this boundary should help sustain additional convection and southeast push of the outflow to southern Lake Michigan this morning. The tendency over next few hours may be for increasing trend in stronger cores to be displaced further behind outflow boundary due to some stronger downstream MLCIN across the southern Great Lakes. May need to watch for potential of isolated severe gust across primarily southern Lower Michigan this morning where more of a forward propagation may be favored, but a higher confidence potential does exist across NW IN/southern Lower MI for some 40+ mph wind gusts this morning. There have been some instances of small scale circulations developing at leading edge of the line across SE Wisconsin in QLCS type setup. If forward propagating system can reach southern Lower Michigan this morning cannot completely rule out similar evolution where westerly 30-35 knot 0-3 km shear vector has a more favorable orientation, but more limited instability with southward extent and more likely more parallel orientation of shear vectors to line through time may limit this potential. Another thing to monitor for today could be possibility of some small scale convectively enhanced short wave kicking northeast out of eastern Missouri this morning which could interact with the southward dropping outflow boundary across northeast or east central Illinois. Timing of this interaction would probably be late morning/midday period in unfavorable timing in terms of peak diurnal instability, but may need to watch for some uptick in convection across far west/southwest late morning given steep mid level lapse rates in place. Overall forecast thinking has not changed greatly for the primary severe weather threat period tonight. The outflow boundary will likely stall from NE Illinois into portions of IWX forecast area this morning, with instability recovery likely by late afternoon as this instability gradient is advected back northward via stronger low/mid level flow associated with convectively enhanced short waves to the southwest. Some isolated stronger storms are possible in vicinity of this instability gradient as it lifts north, but the possibility exists for weak CIN to hold. By this evening low level flow will back some to the southwest in response to a progressive wave across working across the Upper Midwest. This should yield a pocket of strong 925-850 mb moisture convergence from eastern IA into southern WI this evening which looks prime for convection initiation. Some lower confidence still persists in how convection will evolve tonight, whether a coherent cold pool and southeast propagating convective system occurs, or if storms remain just slightly elevated north of the composite boundary. Supercell wind profiles will likely be in place again by this evening as a stronger mid level jet lifts across northeast IL late afternoon with a wind/hail threat. Best combination of shear/instability still looks possible across NW IN/SW Lower MI where all severe hazards would appear more likely, although helicity profiles more favorable for tornadoes may be displaced west across northern IL where shear may be augmented by the low/mid level jet. As mentioned, still uncertainty with details in convective mode tonight, but overall key themes from previous forecast remain intact. Some heavy rain potential may materialize later tonight as potential outflow with southern Great Lakes storms could become more favorably oriented parallel to veering low level westerly flow. It is difficult to get into too much detail regarding severe potential for Wed/Thu as this be highly dependent on previous day's convective evolution and hard to resolve smaller individual smaller scale waves in this pattern. This situation is a complex one as stubbornness of longwave ridging to break down across eastern CONUS results in multiple upstream short waves shearing out as they encounter this ridge, and also an added increased susceptibility to convectively enhanced short waves from southern Plains/lower MS Valley. Instability profiles will likely be more limited for Wednesday and Thursday, although at least Wednesday should still feature respectable wind shear profiles that could allow for at least an isolated severe threat. Some small increase in instability is possible Thursday as upper ridge finally appears to be broken down by stronger mid level wave, but shear profiles may become a bit more marginal by this time. The extended period of above normal temperatures will continue through the first part of the weekend. Medium range guidance is starting to come into a little better agreement in timing frontal passage with next more substantial longwave trough for first part of the weekend. Much too early for details, but some strong/severe threat could accompany frontal convection Saturday depending on timing. May also need to watch for periods of strong synoptic winds this weekend in both pre-frontal and post-frontal environments. Cooler, below normal temperatures should build in for second half of weekend into next Monday, but residence time of this cooler air looks to be limited. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 628 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 An outflow boundary from the organized convective complex across Wisconsin has lost much of its momentum this morning across north central Indiana. An additional convectively enhanced short wave lifting out of northern Missouri will likely interact with this lingering outflow for additional storms in vicinity of the boundary and in a more elevated sense behind it. This greater precip threat should diminish late morning/midday. There is a potential for an isolated storm along the old outflow boundary this afternoon, although some capping and weaker large scale forcing should limit this overall threat. It still appears as though favored convective initiation should occur across nrn IL/srn WI later tonight and likely propagating into northern Indiana late evening. Still some uncertainty persists regarding convective mode and whether storms may develop a cold pool and sink south, or remain mainly confined across far northern Indiana for much of the night. Given this uncertainty will keep PROB30 TSRA mention going at this forecast distance. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...Fisher DISCUSSION...Marsili AVIATION...Marsili  798 FXUS62 KTAE 141234 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 834 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 833 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Patchy fog is possible this morning over the Florida Panhandle and Southeast Alabama, mainly west of the Choctawhatchee River. If encountering fog while driving, slow down, use low beam headlights, and increase braking distance. - Little or no rain is expected through this weekend. Drought conditions will worsen. Fire concerns will remain elevated. Use extreme caution with any outdoor burning. Please heed burn bans where they are in effect. - Above normal temperatures will continue through this weekend, with lower 90s likely late this week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 833 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The previous forecast appears to be on track. No updates were needed. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 222 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A large upper level ridge will prevail over the southeast US through the remainder of the week. Under this ridge, surface high pressure will remain dominant with high temperatures well above normal and in the upper 80s. It wouldn't be surprising for some locations to touch the 90s by the upcoming weekend. With the ridge in control, no rainfall is expected through the remainder of the week and potentially into the weekend. Fire concerns will also stay elevated given the dry conditions in place and expected forecast. The ridge will likely begin to break down some late in the weekend and into early next week as a frontal system approaches. However, rainfall amounts will be very small, if any, from this frontal system. The main concerns with this system will be the influx of drier air and potential increase in fire weather concerns given elevated post-frontal winds. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 639 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. The lone exception could be brief patchy MVFR/IFR fog this morning at ECP but these conditions should improve quickly to VFR by 14z. Similar conditions are possible tonight, with most fog/ceiling restriction being limited to ECP/DHN. && .MARINE... Issued at 222 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A surface high extending from the western Atlantic will keep generally light to gentle southeasterly winds over the waters for the next several days. Seabreezes can be expected to push just inland during the afternoon hours. Later this week, the High will settle a little further south, shifting our winds more southerly. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 222 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Warm and dry conditions will continue through the week as drought conditions will continue and/or worsen. Transport winds will generally be southerly; swinging from southeasterly to southwesterly at around 5-10 mph. Expect afternoon seabreezes across Florida counties. Dispersions will be moderate, with higher dispersions expected by Wednesday lasting into the weekend. Given antecedent conditions and RHs dropping into the low 30% range most afternoons, expect some fire concerns each day. While uncertainty remains high at these longer lead times, some greater fire weather concerns could develop over the weekend or early next week with the passage of a dry cold front. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 222 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 No rain is expected for the next several days. Drought conditions will continue or worsen. For more local drought information & statements, visit the following websites: weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 87 59 88 58 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 81 61 81 63 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 87 58 88 58 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 88 60 89 60 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 88 59 90 58 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 87 57 88 58 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 76 62 77 63 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114- 115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Dobbs LONG TERM....Dobbs AVIATION...Dobbs MARINE...Dobbs FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs HYDROLOGY...Dobbs  064 FXUS63 KFGF 141239 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 739 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a 30% chance for advisory level winter impacts from accumulating snow and gusty winds Friday to Saturday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 735 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The 500 mb wave circulation went from just north of Bismarck thru Devils Lake area to Cavalier. Main deformation zone precip was just west of the upper low where rain then snow fell with pocket of heavy snow Rugby to Rolla and northern Towner county ND and northwest Cavalier county ND. 6 inches northeast of Rolla. That band of precip is moving out, with lingering rain showers to the south and east of the upper low in the north valley and far NW MN moving out midday. Thinking any snow risk is now in Canada. UPDATE Issued at 1154 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Rain showers starting to move into the western Devils Lake Basin as the next shortwave approaches. Also getting a few weak thunderstorms in the southern Red River Valley that are not handled well by CAMs but are with around 250 J/kg of MU CAPE. This activity will continue to push eastward across our area overnight, and many of the ensemble members transition at least part of the precipitation in northeastern ND and northwestern MN over to snow. 00Z HREF has 40 to 50 percent chances for an inch or more of snow, although fairly warm pavement temps will mute the impact. Will keep the SPS going as advisory level impacts seem less than 20 percent. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 324 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will remain in place over much of the West to Northern Plains this week. This will house numerous shortwave troughs moving through the exit region of the broader upper trough, with this upper trough's axis finally shifting eastward through the central CONUS late this week. This synoptic pattern will provide intervals of precipitation today and Tuesday, as well as Friday to Saturday. This includes potential for snow and associated winter impacts both Tuesday and later this week. More details on this below. With the upper trough passage through our area around Friday to Saturday increasing chances for precipitation, there is a scenario where increasing instability works its way into Minnesota and/or eastern Dakotas to allow for thunderstorms. At this time, it remains unclear if this will occur as there is much uncertainty in numerous preceding shortwave trough passages through the Plains and Midwest that will dictate this buoyant air mass's location. The upper troughing will be oriented in such a way that above average temperatures will overspread our portion of the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest, with highs in the 60s and 70s currently forecast Wednesday and Thursday. With the incoming upper trough passage late this week, a cooler, more seasonable air mass will envelope Northern Plains into Upper Midwest. ...Potential winter impacts Tuesday morning... There is high confidence in an area of precipitation moving generally southwest to northeast across our area north of I-94 corridor. A large subset of high resolution guidance reveals temperatures in northeast ND into far northwest MN will be close enough to freezing to allow some of this precipitation to fall as snow. In fact, relatively strong ascent with rich moisture feeding into the ascent will allow for heavy snow rates between 1-2 inches per hour. Given the relatively fast forward movement of this precipitation, the time for heavy snow rates to reside over any particular location in these areas will be brief (i.e. 1-3 hours at any location). While majority of high resolution guidance depicts this scenario, there are still differences in where exactly this occurs within these region as the areas potentially impacted by snow will likely be quite narrow. Additionally, there is anticipation of relatively warm surface temperatures leading to melting on contact. Although, these higher snow rates will likely overcome warm surfaces to allow for at least some accumulation on non-grassy surfaces. Anywhere from 1-5 inches is liable to fall, with more than 3 inches more likely to be on grassy surfaces. Heavy snow rates will greatly reduce visibility, and may lead to slippery roads from a slushy accumulation. And with this occuring during the morning commute, we've amplified messaging of this potential via graphical messaging as well as issuing a Special Weather Statement. ...Late week winter impact potential... Ensemble guidance continues to cluster toward a scenario that features heavy snow in one or two more consolidated systems' deformation zones. However, most guidance favors majority of this snow to remain in Canada. There is still a subset of guidance that brings snow into our area, mainly north of Highway 200. This includes snow accumulation up to 5 inches. Snow may also coincide with gusty winds to introduce impacts from blowing snow and reduced visibility into this scenario. Additionally, ensembles now reveal a potential scenario that brings a second wave of precipitation and snow through the region on Saturday. This widens the window of when winter impacts may occur from solely Friday to now Friday into Saturday. Ensemble guidance has also trended some what down on potential for warning level impacts from 6 or more inches of snow to be less than 10%. However, the chance for advisory level winter impacts remains at around 30%. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 735 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A mess this morning with aviation with some partly cloudy pockets, mixed in with VFR clouds and areas of IFR fog and low clouds. Upper low in far northeast ND currently will move northeast and winds turning north-northwest all areas today 5-15 kts. Sky cover may remain chaotic in terms of height above the ground, but for the most part settle into the MVFR range going toward noon and afternoon. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Riddle/JR DISCUSSION...CJ AVIATION...Riddle  696 FXUS66 KMFR 141246 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 546 AM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .DISCUSSION...A shortwave ridge passing over northern California and southern Oregon will allow for a period of calm this morning and afternoon. Daytime highs will warm slightly from Monday's temperatures, and clouds will linger through the afternoon west of the Cascades while east side areas may see some clear skies. A cold front will bring some coastal showers this evening, with more widespread rainfall expected on Wednesday. Coastal cities look to see 1 to 1.5 inches of rainfall, while coastal ranges could see around 2 inches. Rainfall in the Umpqua Valley is forecast to be between 0.75 and 1 inch, with other valleys and basins seeing lower amounts through Wednesday. With snow levels expected to hover at 4500-5500 feet from the front's arrival through Wednesday morning, winter impacts look to be limited to the Cascades. A Winter Weather Advisory is in place for areas near and north of Crater Lake and at elevations above 5000 feet from Wednesday morning through Thursday morning, given that snowfall in this area is expected to make travel hazardous. Snowfall amounts of 12 to 16 inches are forecast over the Cascades on Wednesday. Current SPC guidance shows 50-90% chances for snowfall rates of 1 inch per hour late Wednesday morning into early in the afternoon. Gusty winds are expected over elevated terrain on Wednesday, especially east of the Cascades. Gusts along Winter Rim and the Warner Mountains have 50-80% chances to reach 45 mph in that late Wednesday morning-early afternoon timeframe, per HREF probabilistic guidance. Gusts of 20-30 mph are more widespread across east side areas. Activity across the area eases on Wednesday evening, but a cold air mass looks to bring impactful overnight low temperatures for west side valleys. The Rogue, Applegate, Illinois, and western Klamath County valleys are all forecast to see lows from the mid 20s to low 30s on these nights. These temperatures would bring chances of frost or freezing conditions. East of the Cascades, overnight lows look to be in the mid teens to low 20s. Chilly nights aside, Thursday looks to be a quieter day. While snow levels drop to 1500-2000 feet in the morning, declining activity will minimize the chance of impactful winter conditions at lower elevations. Another shortwave ridge looks to bring warmer temperatures and dry conditions on Friday and Saturday. Long-term deterministic imagery is showing more agreement of a low pressure system approaching the area from the northwest, bringing periods of southwest or southerly flow. While details are still coarse, the tight pressure gradients aloft in imagery tend to indicate stronger winds, and southerly flow patterns tend to deliver moderate to heavy precipitation to the Mount Shasta area and coastal terrain. Details remain coarse for this timeframe, so stay tuned for additional details on continuing active weather. -TAD && .AVIATION...14/12Z TAFs...VFR levels continue across northern California and southern Oregon under mid to high level ceilings. These levels are expected to continue through this afternoon. An approaching cold front will bring rainfall over west side areas, with the possibility of MVFR (or locally lower) ceilings and visibilities. The highest precipitation amounts will be along the Oregon coast and over the Cascades. Snow showers are expected to develop over the Cascades, and rainfall will start to develop east of the Cascades towards the end of the TAF period. -TAD && .MARINE...Updated 100 AM PDT Tuesday, April 14, 2026...Seas will stay below advisory level strength through this morning. A front will start passing through the region later today. This will result in widespread precipitation, strong winds, and steep seas this evening and into Wednesday. Localized areas of very steep and hazardous seas may be possible north of Coos Bay as the front initially starts to transition over the waters. Steep seas will continue behind the front through Thursday afternoon. A thermal trough may bring gusty northerly winds over the outer waters and south of Cape Blanco on Friday. Another active system may bring additional rainfall and steep seas this weekend. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ027. CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM PDT Thursday for PZZ350-356-370-376. && $$  328 FXUS62 KTBW 141248 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 848 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Critical RH values across the region the next few days. - Above average temperatures continue through the week. - Moderate to extreme drought conditions continue. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 223 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Pleasant and warm weather will continue through the week. This is all attributed to persistent upper ridging extending over Florida as well as surface high pressure near Bermuda ridging west- southwestward over Florida and into the eastern Gulf waters. PWAT values will remain below 1 inch through the week and into the weekend resulting in rain-free conditions and well above average temperatures through the week. Daytime highs will top out in the mid to upper 80s the next couple of days, then reaching the 90s in some areas late week and into the weekend. Mild overnight temps with lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s expected through the forecast period. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 824 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions through the period with winds generally staying below 15 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 223 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 High pressure ridging across Florida and into the eastern Gulf waters will keep a persistent east-southeast wind flow 15 knots or less and seas 2 feet or less over the region through the week and into the weekend. Winds will turn onshore during the afternoon and evening as the sea breeze sets up along the coast. This high pressure will also keep rain-free conditions over the Gulf waters through the forecast period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 223 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 High pressure ridging over the area will keep rain-free conditions over the area through the week. Some critical RH values below 35 percent expected during the week, but light winds below 15 mph will preclude the need for any Red Flag Warnings. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 88 65 88 65 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 88 62 88 64 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 87 61 88 61 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 87 63 85 63 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 88 55 89 56 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 87 68 87 68 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley DECISION SUPPORT...Flannery UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Flannery