056 FXAK68 PAFC 141308 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 508 AM AKDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)... Ridging out of the North Pacific has amplified and built across Southwest and will push into Southcentral today, leading to a beautiful day across the region. Starting tomorrow, a series of shortwave troughs amid southwest flow aloft will begin moving atop the ridge and into Southcentral. The first front and associated precipitation reaches Kodiak Island Tuesday night before then spreading across the Kenai Peninsula and the rest of the area during the day on Wednesday. Lingering cold air will keep most precipitation as snow during the morning hours, but expect lingering precipitation, mainly in the Susitna Valley, to mix with rain in the afternoon. The Copper Valley will also get snow in the afternoon, so expect a quick drop in temperatures in the afternoon for areas under snow showers. Amounts will be very light with most locations outside of the mountains not expecting more than a few hundredths to one tenth of an inch liquid equivalent or trace to an inch of snow. Precipitation looks to diminish Wednesday night as ridging builds in wake of this system, but another front, tied a more potent low in the eastern Bering, shifts into Southcentral again on Thursday and Thursday night. There remains some timing differences with various model runs, but Kodiak Island looks to get the next wave of precip sometime Thursday morning before the rest of Southcentral gets it later into the day and into the overnight period. Snow levels will be similar to the previous day's system, though perhaps a few hundred feet higher initially due to the timing. Locations at elevation should remain most/all snow with this next wave. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Friday morning)... A front is currently passing through the East Bering. This front is bringing a band of precipitation along as it pushes eastward. Precipitation will initially be snowfall, but due to warm air advection snow will transition to a rain/snow mix or rain at the back end of the front. Also behind the front over the Bering, low stratus/fog is possible. As the front pushes inland by this afternoon, snowfall will spread out across the Southwest Mainland. Due to a cooler airmass in the mainland, precipitation will remain mostly snowfall until Wednesday afternoon. Snow amounts range from 1 to 3 inches before precipitation chances dwindle and snow transitions to a mix of rain and snow on Wednesday. Additional shortwaves will drift in behind the front, allowing for mixed precipitation in the Bering and the Southwest Mainland through Friday morning. Wind speeds will remain elevated, but remain sub-small craft through Thursday night. Overnight snowfall will allow for an additional 0.5 to 1 inch of snowfall across the mainland Thursday night, but this will likely melt by the day as temperatures warm above freezing. Meanwhile, a ridge will set up over the Bering by Friday morning, which will diminish precipitation chances and decrease wind speeds. However, a strong North Pacific Low looks to rise into the western Aleutians late Friday morning, which could bring strong gusty winds and moderate to heavy precipitation. -JAR && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through Sunday)... An active pattern continues for mid-April with multiple systems bringing precipitation and cloud cover to the region. Broad upper- level troughing across the western Bering and coastal mainland will be in place to begin the period, placing the Aleutians and much of Southern Alaska in active quasi- southwest flow with embedded shortwaves. Kicking off the period on Thursday, precipitation will overspread much of Southcentral AK amid southwest flow. On Friday afternoon, the front of a strong North Pacific low lifts across the Bering Sea, bringing mostly rain to the Aleutian Islands and widespread gales to the southern Bering. As the center of the system crosses into the Bering, winds weaken before reaching the mainland, and precipitation evolves into a rain/snow mix to all snow for the Alaska Peninsula and Southwest Coast by Sunday afternoon. While uncertainty remains high concerning details beyond Friday, the upper- level low will remain in place across mainland Alaska, and unsettled weather will continue for Southwest and Southcentral through the start of next week. Temperatures will generally be near average. && .AVIATION... PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. Clouds above 5000 ft roll back in late tonight. PA && $$  050 FXUS63 KABR 141311 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 811 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mostly dry through late Thursday. - Temperatures 15 to 25 degrees above normal Thursday (Highs: low 70s to low 80s) and low humidity. This and south winds 25 to 30 mph results in High/Very High Grassland Fire Danger. - Colder Friday/Saturday. Saturday high temperatures 10 to 20 degrees below normal (Highs in the 40s). && .UPDATE... Issued at 806 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Dense fog has once again stuck around early this morning, and surface observations show lingering areas of visibility below a quarter of a mile, particularly in the James River Valley and the Prairie Coteau areas. Expecting conditions to improve more quickly than they did yesterday with westerly winds gradually increasing to about 10 miles per hour gusting to 15 over the next couple of hours and helping to dispell the fog. Part of the Dense Fog Advisory has been extended to 15Z to match the new expectations. Other than visibility adjustments to better line up with surface observations, no significant changes have been made to the forecast at this point. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1217 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Surface high to the north continues to feed cool stable air into the region around midnight. As such, upslope favored areas with this wind trajectory will again see fog/stratus expand over the next few hours. Towards morning, the pressure gradient is much weaker, winds gradually organizing around to westerly as a surface low lifts northeast across North Dakota. 850mb temperatures are coolest today, ranging between +3 to +9C from northeast to southwest respectively. Will give temperatures a slight bump above deterministic NBM which falls about 3-4 degrees below the NBM mean given the favorable mixing direction, with the expectation that shallow low clouds/fog also mix out with these light west winds. We fall under the influence of a very weak surface high tonight, and on the backside, winds shift back to southerly for Wednesday. We start to see milder air moving in late Wednesday, with the core of the warmest air overhead for Thursday, though with a front positioned just to our northwest. Its another interesting temperature forecast for Thursday with the deterministic NBM again falling close to the 10th percentile for high temperatures, about a difference of 8 degrees between that and the mean. Deterministic model 850mb temperatures run from +16 to +19C with the Canadian being a distinct cool anomaly. The surface flow is around a low that develops over Wyoming with an inverted trough/warm front extending up northeast across South Dakota. This provides for a favorable mixing environment with southwest winds south of the boundary. The big question here is where does this surface feature set up with the main deterministic models having a pretty tight thermal gradient across northwest South Dakota to south central North Dakota and any wobble in the next several runs could translate this gradient elsewhere, and as such could result in a forecast or forecast adjustment bust. Will leave NBM temperatures alone Thursday for now. A side note in regards to these conditions, it is interesting how deep mixing is depicted in NAM BUFKIT profiles, up to approximately 12kft out by Pierre, 10kft for KMBG and 8kft for KABR! Shallow high/surface based altocumulus may result but there is limited CAPE above the deep surface boundary layer, and a substantial dry layer. All this above the 0C layer as well. So maybe add the option for some additional gustiness with dry/snow microburst. That surface low translates southwards, bringing much colder air back into the region for Thursday night/Friday. We go from 850mb temperatures a standard deviation above climo, to a standard deviation below climo for Saturday. Forecast temperatures reflect this with about a 35F drop between Thursday and Friday/Saturday. Precipitation will be pretty meager for the next few days. A mid level deck is depicted in the NAM across south central and far eastern South Dakota today with a deep dry layer. We also see precipitation chances in the NBM increase Friday, as a trough deepens to our west. Most of the model QPF appears to come on the backside of the system as the surface low has moved off well to the east. GFS BUFKIT profiles hint that a deep stratus layer accompanies the change in airmasses, though if this is the case then we'd be looking at more drizzle/sprinkles type precipitation. And while NBM POPs are quite high, overall the QPF is from a few hundreds to maybe 2/10ths. GEFS is in line with this thinking with just a few members showing moisture greater than a tenth of an inch. NBM probability of 0.25 inches or greater is only about 40% across the northern tier of the state, to around 20% from Pierre to Watertown. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 618 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG Morning fog has fallen to around 1SM at ABR, but improved to 5SM or higher at other sites at least temporarily. IFR ceilings at ABR/ATY will improve to MVFR to VFR by 15Z as the lower ceilings. 10kt or less winds will continue through the period. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for SDZ006>008- 011-016-018>021-034. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...BC DISCUSSION...07 AVIATION...06  515 FXUS61 KAKQ 141316 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 916 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Added an Increased Fire Danger Statement for portions of central and eastern VA through 7 PM this evening. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Record to near-record high temperatures are expected from today through Thursday. 2) Continued dry with fire weather concerns expected for much of the week. 3) Well above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather continue through Saturday. A stronger cold front brings a chance for showers on Sunday, but it does not look at all like a widespread soaking rain. Many areas likely see less than 0.10". && .DISCUSSION... As of 915 AM EDT Tuesday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Record to near-record high temperatures are expected from today through Thursday. Surface high pressure has settled well offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast, with strong upper ridging situated from the Gulf coast to Southeast CONUS. High pressure will build into the western Atlantic during the next day or so. The resulting persistent return flow will lock in a very warm, dry SSW flow regime through Thursday. This Bermuda High setup, more typical of early to mid summer, will allow for record to near record high temperatures through Thursday. The primary difference from summer will be MUCH lower dew pts which will keep apparent temperatures at or below actual air temperatures, which is far more comfortable than typical summertime conditions. Highs today climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s, with low to mid 90s on Wednesday, and mainly low 90s on Thursday. Highs will be a few degrees cooler on the eastern shore. The current records at our long- term climate sites noted in the climate section below. Thunderstorms will develop well to our NW (over WV/PA) this afternoon but are expected to dissipate well before reaching the area this evening as they run into the warmer temps aloft (and lower sfc dew points). KEY MESSAGE 2...Continued dry with fire weather concerns expected for much of the week. With high pressure dominating our weather pattern, and no appreciable precipitation expected through the end of the week, fire weather concerns will remain an issue to monitor for much of the rest of the week. After collaboration with VA State Forestry, have issued an Increased Fire Danger Statement for portions of VA where aftn gusts to around 20 mph are co-located with min RH values at or below 30%, along with highs around 90F. This generally includes all of central and east central. Minimum RH values are, and will continue to be low, averaging 25-30% inland and 30-35% closer to the coast through Thursday, keeping fire wx conditions around critical fire wx thresholds through much of the week. KEY MESSAGE 3...Well above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather continue through Saturday. A stronger cold front brings a chance for showers on Sunday, but it does not look at all like a widespread soaking rain. Many areas likely see less than 0.10". Slightly cooler (80s) on Friday as a weak shortwave brings more cloud cover to the area. Moisture return ahead of this feature will be meager, so only isolated showers are possible on Friday with that shortwave. Rain amounts will likely be a few hundredths of an inch at best, and most areas will stay dry. Very warm and dry (~90F inland) on Saturday as upper heights build again. Global models and ensembles continue to suggest that a stronger front crosses the area on Sunday as low pressure tracks into Ontario/Quebec. Moisture return ahead of this front will be a little bit better than what is expected on Friday, but it does not look promising for a widespread soaking rain. Isolated to perhaps scattered showers are possible during the day, with a low chc of a tstm. Ensemble probs of 0.10" of rain are 30-60% (highest near the coast). Mild wx returns behind the front early next week. && .AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 645 AM EDT Tuesday... High pressure offshore of the region will favor VFR conditions through the TAF period and beyond. Skies will be mostly clear outside of high clouds through the period. FEW cumulus could develop in the aftn. Winds remain around 10 kt this morning. Gusty SW winds (to ~20 kt) return during the late morning- afternoon. Outlook: VFR and dry conditions are expected to prevail through Saturday. S-SW winds also prevail throughout the forecast period, as high pressure settles over the western Atlantic. && .MARINE... As of 220 AM EDT Tuesday... - Sub-SCA conditions are expected to prevail through much of the week and into the weekend. - Next round of potential elevated marine conditions return by the end of the weekend. Morning weather analysis shows a 1026mb high pressure sitting off the southeast coast. Due to the location of the high pressure SW winds continue to prevail across all waters. Latest observations are showing winds sustained between 10 to 15 kt. Seas at this time remain benign with waves between 1 to 2 ft across the bay and 3 to 4 ft across the ocean. Through the course of the day and generally through the week winds will remain out of the SW and sub-SCA conditions will prevail as the high pressure off the SE coast locks into place. Winds will generally remain between 10 to 15 kt with perhaps some brief 20 kt gusts across the open ocean. Will note that there is the potential for perhaps a brief period of 20 kt gusts across the bay late Thursday into Friday as a weak cold front pushes out of the north. However, confidence in these 20 kt gusts are low at this time due to the pressure gradient being weak and winds prevailing out of the SW. Seas during this time frame will remain steady with 1-2ft seas across the bay and 3 to 4 ft seas across the ocean. The next best chance for any marine headlines (primarily SCA) will be Sunday into Monday. Recent model guidance continues to show a moderate to strong cold front moving across the area. As this cool and dry airmass moves into place it will allow winds to increase over the waters with gusts potentially between 20-25kt. Trends in the model data will continue to be monitored as the weekend approaches. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temps for 4/14 - 4/16 Record Record Record High/Year High/Year High/Year Location 4/14 4/15 4/16 -------- ---- ----- ------ Richmond 90 (1977) 92 (1941) 93 (1976) Norfolk 90 (1941) 90 (2024) 91 (1976) Salisbury 87 (1941) 87 (1941) 89 (1976) Eliz. City 90 (1941) 91 (1941) 90 (1941) Record High Min Temps for 4/14 - 4/16 Record Record Record High High High Min T/Year Min T/Year Min T/Year Location 4/14 4/15 4/16 -------- ---- ----- ------ Richmond 65 (1899) 64 (2018) 64 (1912) Norfolk 68 (2019) 68 (1941) 66 (2017) Salisbury 65 (1945) 64 (2002) 63 (2017) Eliz. City 68 (2019) 68 (1974) 68 (1994) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER until 7 PM EDT this evening for VAZ048- 060>062-064>069-075>085-087>090-509>522. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ERI/LKB AVIATION...ERI MARINE...HET/RMM CLIMATE...MAM  629 FXAK67 PAJK 141330 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 530 AM AKDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Key Messages: - Tuesday is expected to see a clearing from north to south, with increased chances of sun and warmer temperatures. - Showers return late on Wednesday and into Thursday. && .SHORT TERM.../ Through Tuesday night / Low over the south central panhandle through Wednesday, and this had been keeping most of showers limited to the southern panhandle. There are a few clusters of showers, one is moving into western Prince of Wales island about 5 am and there is a second cluster out over the southeast gulf, and that will probably make land fall between 8 and 11 am in the same are. Some these could be stronger showers, with some locally gust winds, and possibly sleet. As the low weakens and pulls to the southeast, look for clearing for the northern portion of the panhandle through the afternoon and evening. The only issue for the northern panhandle is a trough between Yakutat and Glacier Bay that has clouds streaming Southwest out to the gulf. Closer to the surface the trough positions may lead to some upslope on the Canadian side of the border but could spread some light snow into the northern Lynn Canal area Tuesday morning. The moving ridge over the gulf nudges some clearing/drying conditions for Wednesday. .LONG TERM...The low impacting the southern panhandle Tuesday will continue to dip south into Wednesday, allowing for skies over the rest of the panhandle to clear out. A broad upper level ridge develops, with the associated surface level ridging positioned to continue onshore flow into the panhandle. Mid level moisture looks to move into the northern panhandle with a shortwave trough on Wednesday night, allowing for light snow in Yakutat and parts of the far northern panhandle Thursday morning. Snow is not really expected to stick for these locations as temperatures remain around freezing, though higher elevation areas and the Klondike and Haines Highways may see up to an inch. This precipitation will be a mix or all rain for the rest of the northern and central panhandle Wednesday, moving into parts of the southern panhandle through Wednesday night into Thursday. Showers are expected to continue until Thursday night, when a more organized front moves into the panhandle from northwest to southeast. This will bring widespread precipitation to the panhandle Friday into Saturday, though QPF remains on the lower side. Again, Yakutat and the northern highways may see snow with this front, though daytime temperatures should only allow for minimal, if any, accumulation. Precipitation is expected to taper down through Saturday, though it may not completely stop until Sunday. The only real wind issue is expected near the typical hot spots from Thursday into Friday as the front moves inland, with Lynn Canal, southern Stephens Passage near Five Finger Lighthouse, and around Point Couverden potentially seeing small craft advisories through this period. && .AVIATION...Showers have largely come to an end across a majority of the panhandle Tuesday morning with clearing north of Sitka. Some patchy fog may develop but should quickly dissipate with daytime heating. Some isolated showers remain possible over the next few hours primarily for the southern panhandle, but overall improving trend throughout the day Tuesday. && .MARINE... Outside Waters: A general trough extends form the southern panhandle towards Prince William Sound Tuesday as a low over the southern panhandle falls apart. Long, wide fetches with consistent westerly winds look to build seas from 5 ft up to 10-13 ft at 9 to 10 seconds before diminishing slowly Tuesday night. Inside Waters: A low positioned between Sumner Strait and Frederick Sounds this morning will see this low weaken and slide SE through day falling apart by afternoon. Winds for the northern channels in the 10 to 15 kt range. The southern panhandle winds look to lighter today, although wider portions of Clarence Strait may see a more Southwest direction for the wind. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641-642-661>663. && $$ SHORT TERM...Bezenek LONG TERM...ZTK AVIATION...STJ MARINE...Bezenek Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau  304 FXAK69 PAFG 141340 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 540 AM AKDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Majority of the snowfall has tapered off across most of the Interior. However, lingering moisture may allow for isolated chances throughout the day. A colder airmass will continue to build up over the North Slope as an upper level low moves south from the Arctic. Another front will begin to move over the YK- Delta from the Bering Sea by this afternoon. Most of the precipitation, today, will be snow. Precipitation types will become more diurnally driven tomorrow, and for the rest of the week, as warmer air moves in from the SW. Light showers will persist along this front as it eventually sets up in a E-W orientation on a line from the souther Yukon Flats to the southern Seward Peninsula. Another, slightly stronger, surface low will follow behind this front and set up just off the coast of the YK- Delta. This will help set up a northeasterly gradient across the West Coast which will result in gusty winds through the Bering Strait and NW Arctic Coast through the end of the week. && .KEY WEATHER MESSAGES... Central and Eastern Interior... - Cooler temperatures remain through the end of the week with highs in the 30s and lows in the 20s for most areas. - Scattered snow showers may continue to linger across the Central Interior and higher elevations across the Eastern Interior today. Little to no accumulation is expected. - An E-W oriented front sets up, from Eilson to Nome, by Wednesday afternoon. This will bring another round of widespread rain/snow showers across the Interior. Precipitation types will be dynamically driven with a rain/snow mix during the day, mostly rain at lower elevations, and mostly snow during the overnight hours. - Total snowfall accumulations through the end of the week from this front are expected to be between 1" and 3". West Coast and Western Interior... - Breezy northeasterly winds will continue throughout the day today, with the strongest winds from the Bering Strait to St. Lawrence Island. Gusts are expected to be between 25 and 35 mph. - Another round of precipitation approaches the West Coast today bringing periods of light rain, snow, and mixed precipitation to portions of the West Coast and Western Interior through the end of the week. Precipitation will be most consistent for areas south of the Bering Strait along the West Coast and south of Huslia across the Western Interior. - Precipitation will be mostly snow today and become more diurnally driven by Wednesday afternoon with a rain/snow mix during the day, mostly rain at lower elevations, and mostly snow during the overnight hours. - Temperatures cool throughout the week with highs in the 20s and overnight lows in the teens to single digits above zero. North Slope and Brooks Range.. - Scattered snow showers linger across the Brooks Range into next week, especially along southern facing slopes. Travel through Anaktuvuk Pass or Atigun Pass may be slightly impacted by light snowfall and breezy northerly winds. - Periods of gusty winds return to the northwest Arctic Coast today through the end of the week. Gusts as high as 45 mph possible between Point Hope and Point Lay. Periods of blowing snow may reduce visibility and make travel difficult. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued. - Temperatures continue to rapidly cool and are expected to remain cool through the end of the week. Highs fall to the single digits above zero while overnight lows reach as cold as the teens below zero. && .FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION... For Tuesday through Friday. Little to no change has been made to the overall forecast as persistence continues to hold strong. Satellite images from this morning shows a low, previously in the northern Gulf of Alaska, weakening and shifting SE down the Alaska Panhandle. Over the Bering, a ridge continues to build. behind this ridge is a defined front that is expected to move over the state by the start of the afternoon. With the building ridge in the Bering, this has allowed for quieter weather over the West Coast, however some low clouds and scattered patches of fog continue to linger from the previous system. Over the Arctic, a distinctive trough is beginning to push farther south toward the northern Arctic Coast, providing most of the north slope with a shallow cloud deck, scattered snow showers, and patchy fog. The short term portion of the forecast will be largely driven by the front in the Bering and the trough digging south over the Arctic. Depending on how fast the trough is able to move south, will determine how far north the front will be able to push before stalling. Latest guidance shows the front's associated shortwave moving W/NW over the YK-Delta by this afternoon. While over the Bering, an E-W oriented 522 decameter low sets up over the North Slope. As the front moves over the YK-Delta, the front will get stretch zonally across the central portion of the state and stalling along a line from the southern Yukon Flats to the southern Seward Peninsula. Most of the precipitation with this system will start off as snow. However, the associated shortwave moving across the state will result in westerly/southwesterly flow aloft. This will allow for slightly warmer temperatures to move in from the tropics. By the time Wednesday rolls around, precipitation types will become diurnally driven with a rain/snow mix during the day, mostly rain at lower elevations, and mostly snow during the overnight hours. Precipitation chances will be widespread across most of the southern half of the state by Wednesday and lasting through the end of the week. A surface low will be slowing pushing east behind this front as it sets up across the central portion of the state. Meanwhile, a surface high will already have been set up in the northern Chukchi. This will allow for the gradient to tighten as the low moves toward the YK-Delta, resulting in gusty NE winds across a majority of the West Coast. The strongest winds are expected over the NW Arctic Coast, with slightly weaker winds through the Bering Strait to St. Lawrence Island. Winds will begin to peak by this evening, allowing for blowing snow potential to return over the Lisburne Peninsula. With the Arctic Trough moving over the North Slope, this will allow for temperatures to remain on the cooler side, allowing for better chances for blowing snow. The short term portion of the forecast comes to an end with the surface low continuing to progress inland over the YK-Delta. This will set up the, all to familiar, "troughiness" pattern across a good portion of the state. A more pronounce upper level trough will also begin to move south from the Arctic, which may continue to support the troughiness pattern and colder temperatures to continue to the start of the weekend. && .EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7... For late Friday through next Tuesday. Compared to yesterday's discussion, a decent bit of model disagreement creeps in early in the extended forecast period. All of the global models show a pronounced trough to form over the state, with a ridge building over the Bering by the start of the weekend. They also show the potential for another upper level low to move north from the western Aleutians by the mid weekend. Beyond this, model agreement begins to decline. The GFS and Canadian are in agreement in showing a ridge becoming more pronounced and extending farther north into the Chukchi. This would push the upper level trough, that was previously over the Arctic Plains, east of the Al-Can boarder. Meanwhile, the ECMWF does not have this strong more pronounced ridge building in and having the low from the western Aleutians moving over Bristol Bay. It also shows an additional shortwave working its way south along the West Coast and getting wrapped into this low as it continues to shift east. The GFS and Canadian show a system moving along a similar trajectory, although this is from a shortwave that gets wrapped into the broad trough, over the state, from the low over the western Aleutians. The EC solution shows a more widespread area of precipitation across the state as it pushes east, compared to the GFS and the Canadian. By the time the end of the weekend rolls around, all of the models are showing northerly flow setting up over the West Coast. This will have to continue to be watched as this may bring another round of seasonably colder temperatures back across the state by the mid-week. Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ801. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811-856>858. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ817. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ851. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ854. && $$ Twombly  385 FXHW60 PHFO 141341 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 341 AM HST Tue Apr 14 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Light to moderate rain continues over the western portion of the state as the main band of showers gradually drifts eastward across Maui County and the Alenuihaha Channel. Periods of showery, somewhat unstable conditions are expected to persist through much of the week. Light and variable winds may also promote localized land and sea breeze development. By the latter half of the week, a return to light east to southeast winds will bring generally quieter weather, however, shower activity could increase by the weekend as an upper-level trough approaches from the northwest. && .DISCUSSION... The main shower band has drifted eastward from the previous forecast and is now located over Maui County and the Alenuihaha Channel. Rainfall rates from these showers have been producing below a tenth of an inch per hour. The subtropical jet, currently located just north of the Hawaiian Islands and drifting southward, will help steer these intermittent shower bands over the region for the next several days. Cloud coverage will also be maintained through much of the week, ensuring dewpoints remain high in the upper-60s, leading to noticeably humid conditions. With the lighter surface winds in the forecast, initially from the southeast before becoming variable, any diurnal heating will be enough to trigger land and sea breeze activity. This may bring leeward and interior showers throughout the day, and partial clearing overnight for most of the islands. Otherwise, these weak, intermittent shower bands will persist as they ride the subtropical jet following the southwesterly flow aloft. Toward the latter half of the week, the surface low pressure system, once anchored just north of the islands, will finally dislodge and move northeastward opening the doors for high pressure to quickly build in its place. Light trades attempt to develop in response, however, latest model guidance depicts an upper-level trough digging down into the vicinity of the state from the northwest. While not overly impressive, nor super impactful currently, it is expected to limit the strength of the trades. That being said, it is worth keeping an eye on the evolution of the upper-level trough to determine if it enhances the ongoing shower activity (especially with the lingering moisture-laden airmass across the state), or if it is simply passing through. && .AVIATION... Low cigs and isol SHRA will continue across the islands. MVFR conds possible but VFR should prevail. Winds will generally be driven by land-sea breezes. The forecast generally trends back toward trades tomorrow into Thursday. No AIRMETs in effect. && .MARINE... A weak surface trough will reside just west of the state through Thursday. This will allow for gentle southeast flow across the waters and locally moderate easterly flow in the typical windy channels surrounding Maui and the Big Island. Surface high pressure building far north of the region will help tighten the pressure gradient and bring moderate to locally fresh easterly trades across the Hawaiian coastal waters Friday into this weekend. A small, short-period, northwest swell will continue to slowly diminish through the rest of the week and into the weekend. A small, medium-period, south swell has arrived at the near shore buoys and should provide a boost to surf along south facing shores through late week before gradually subsiding into the weekend. Surf along east facing shores will remain below seasonal average with lighter than average trade winds near and upstream of the islands forecast through late this week. A slight bump up in surf may occur Friday into this weekend with the increase of easterly flow. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Pierce AVIATION...Walsh MARINE...Thomas  312 FXUS63 KIND 141344 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 944 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Active pattern this week with near daily chances for showers and storms. Friday likely to be the driest day of the week. - Scattered storms possible this afternoon and evening for Central and North Central Indiana, a few of which may be strong to severe. - Near record warm temperatures expected through Saturday with multiple days in the 80s and lows in the 60s. && .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 944 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 An MCV moving into northwest Indiana and a boundary stretching from it southwest into Illinois is generating scattered convection across northwest central Indiana into central Illinois this morning. SPC Mesoanalysis shows that the convection across the area is in a relative minimum in instability, but the storms have produced small hail in east central Illinois. Instability will continue to increase across the southern and eastern forecast area this morning as partial sunshine works on an already warm and moist atmosphere. Thus, the storms may increase in coverage and intensity later this morning into early afternoon. The 12Z HRRR agrees and shows this happening. If storms intensify, damaging winds and large hail would be the primary threat. However, with a boundary involved, will have to watch for rotation and the possibility of isolated tornadoes. Will have to monitor how well the atmosphere recovers later this afternoon and for the boundary's movement north in response to increasing southwest winds aloft. && .DISCUSSION (Today through Monday)... Issued at 319 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Through Tonight... Central Indiana remains firmly within the warm sector of an elongated area of low pressure stretching from Minnesota into the Central Plains. Southwesterly flow remains in place aloft with numerous waves of energy within the mid and upper levels bringing renewed chances for convection in Indiana. While the main storm track over the next 24 hours remains to the west and northwest, closer to the surface fronts and area of low pressure, this pattern does support scattered convection developing or tracking near Central Indiana. A very warm and humid environment with modest shear aloft will support at least a marginal threat for severe weather for the next several days as this same pattern persists. Current satelitte imagery and observations show an overnight MCS along a warm front in Wisconsin and Michigan while a dying area of showers and storms is located near St. Louis. CAMs guidance has a poor handle on the evolution of mesoscale features within this broad southwesterly flow regime within the warm sector; therefore forecast confidence on timing and placement of thunderstorm chances the next several days is fairly low. The greatest storm threat and timing will is all dependent on mesoscale and microscale boundaries which develop as these dying complexes of storms enter Central Indiana. This is a typical warm season set up where the forecast for the next 12 hours all depends on such small minute details which even CAMs struggle to resolve. Therefore, numerous forecast updates will likely occur as the convective set up for each day evolves. Based on current trends early this morning, it appears the southern end of the MCS pushing into Northern Illinois may clip portions of North Central Indiana within the 6am to 9am timeframe as the MCS backbuilds to the southwest under a strong southwesterly LLJ aloft. Elsewhere across Central Indiana, higher clouds will continue to overspread the region from dying storms to the west and the approaching storms to the northwest. Not concerned with severe storms this morning; however based on current soundings showing steep low level lapse rates, any shower has the capability to bring down higher gusts aloft in the 40-55 mph range. A lull in the precipitation chances is likely late morning through early afternoon across Central Indiana; however this is where there is lower confidence in the forecast. Will have to watch where leftover boundaries from this morning's convection set up as this will be where evening storms likely develop. Since Central Indiana is well within the warm sector away from synoptic level fronts, forcing along any leftover boundary will be fairly weak, keeping overall coverage of evening storms widely scattered. However, any storm does have the threat to be severe with all hazards on the table. 2000-3000 J/kg CAPE and 20-35 kts of shear will be enough to support a supercell threat along any of these boundaries. Current thinking is that along and north of I-70 will have the threat for these widely scattered storms 4PM to around 10PM. Will monitor how everything evolves through the day and provide forecast updates as confidence increases on exact locations of potential storm development and associated threats. Outside of storms, deep low level mixing within a warm and humid environment with continued warm air advection will result in near record high temperatures in the 80s today for Central Indiana. Wednesday through Saturday... The overall pattern remains relatively the same going into midweek as the elongated area of low pressure and fronts slowly shift closer to Indiana. With southwest flow continuing aloft, any upper impulse moving through the flow will have the potential to generate scattered convection in an unstable atmosphere. Convection generated by the front to the north could also impact North Central Indiana at times. Isolated strong to severe convection is possible given expected parameters. Temperatures on Wednesday depends on sky cover and rain coverage, but for now will go with upper 70s north to middle 80s south. No matter where convection forms, it will likely feel more like July than Mid April in this type of pattern with such high humidity levels. Wednesday night into Thursday, an upper trough moves into the area, providing better forcing for more widespread storms. The surface front could move into the area, but there is a good amount of uncertainty on timing of greatest coverage for storms Wednesday night into Thursday depending on when the front moves through and also associated smaller shortwaves, which guidance likely can't resolve at this time. While confidence is high in more widespread rain and storm chances, timing and overall extent of the severe threat is still uncertain. Brief upper ridging looks to move in on Friday, providing a dry and warm to hot day. A larger upper trough moves in on Saturday bringing a strong cold front through the area. This will result in another round of showers and thunderstorms, some possibly strong to severe once again. Sunday and Monday... A brief cool down expected for the region latter half of the weekend and into early next week. Longer range guidance continues to hint at upper troughing developing over SE Canada and the NE CONUS going into early next week, allowing for cooler airmasses from Canada to drop southward behind Saturday's front. Still uncertainty on the overall location and track of the incoming high pressure, but confidence remains high in a few days of much cooler weather and the potential for a few frosty mornings in the 30s. Highs will be below normal, with the coldest readings Sunday in the 50s. Lows in the middle to upper 30s may occur Saturday night and Sunday night. Frost potnetial is certainly there but confidence is only marginal at this time as the placement of the high pressure will ultimately determine if optimal conditions for radiational cooling and frost occur over Central Indiana or elsewhere within the Ohio Valley. && .AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 638 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Impacts: - Wind gusts up to 25 to 35 kts likely through the period - Scattered convection may impact sites 13-16z then again 21z-02z. Discussion: Satellite imagery and observations show Central Indiana firmly within the warm sector of an elongated area of low pressure in the Central Plains. Low level south-southwesterly flow will continue through the period with gusts of 25-35 kts to continue. Latest IND ACARs sounding still shows a well mixed boundary layer under an inversion at almost 2km agl. This is a fairly deep mixed layer for the early morning hours. With a strong nocturnal low level jet overhead, expect these stronger gusts at or above 35 kts to persist into the mid to late morning hours, diminishing some into the 20-25 kt range by the afternoon as the LLJ weakens. Lower confidence forecast regarding convection in this type of pattern as short term hi-res guidance struggles to handle these early morning storm complexes. Watching two complexes of storms in Illinois with which could impact Central Indiana in the 12-16z timeframe. The northern complex which moved into Northern Illinois has a gust front pushing southward into Central Illinois with convection developing on the backside of the boundary. This gust front moving south in addition to a subtle MCV has enhanced convection in Central Illinois as well. As these complexes essentially merge and continue east, these storms should enter portions of north Central Indiana within the next couple hours. Expect the best chance for storms in the 13-15z timeframe before the low level jet weakens. There isn't much forcing to sustain these storms further east other than the LLJ, so as the LLJ weakens after 15z, these storms should quickly dissipate. KLAF has the best chance at seeing a storm, while KIND may get clipped as the storms are weakening. Kept a Prob30 group in for -TSRA. Brief periods of heavy rain, MVFR or worse cigs and vis likely under any shower or storm. Leftover boundaries later this afternoon within a very unstable and moist airmass should result in some afternoon convective development within Central Indiana, mostly likely along and north of I-70 in the 20z-02z timeframe. These storms would have the potential to be severe if they get going. Low confidence in finer details in this pattern. Will be able to determine where the highest threat is later this afternoon once boundaries for storms actually develop. Even when storms do develop, they may be widely scattered, but still think the threat is high enough to include a Prob30 group for storms this evening for the sites along and north of I-70. Cigs and vis should be largely VFR for the most part today, with brief periods of MVFR or worse conditions under any shower or thunderstorm. Brief periods of MVFR cigs this morning as a BKN025- BKN030 deck has developed within such a moist low level environment. Expect cigs to bounce between MVFR and low VFR this morning with convection in the vicinity. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Within the setup described in the discussion above, near record temperatures are possible at times this week, mainly Tuesday, and Friday. Whether readings get close depends on sky cover and any rain staying away, which keeps confidence lower at this time. Current deterministic model runs are cooler than the records, but the potential exists to get within a few degrees if everything lines up. On Tuesday April 14, Indy's record high is 85, set in 1883. On Friday April 17, Indy's record high is 87, set in 1896. Record high minimum temperatures are also in play at times given the warm and relatively humid air mass. The first opportunity for this comes Monday, when the record high minimum at Indy is 63, set in 2014 and tied in 2018. At the moment, the forecast is for tying that number. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ MESOSCALE...50 AVIATION...CM DISCUSSION...CM CLIMATE...Ryan  431 FXUS65 KRIW 141349 CCA AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 516 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Low pressure passing by will bring a low chance for showers again today, mainly for the western mountains, the Bighorns, and Casper Mountain. Accumulations will be minimal. - A more potent late winter system sweeps into Western Wyoming starting Wednesday and continuing through Friday. Ample cold temperatures will bring snowfall to most of the region, including lower elevations. - A hard freeze is expected east of the Divide Thursday night and Friday night. The likelihood of temperatures falling below 28 degrees is high (>90%), with temperatures possibly falling into the teens. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 145 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Finally a more active pattern across Wyoming trying to bring precipitation! The latest system is a trough ejecting into the central Plains from the Four Corners region. This system is set a little too far south to bring a significant amount of precip, but still enough energy to produce precip for areas of Casper Mountain, the Bighorns, and higher elevations of the Tetons. But this does set the table for a potent late winter storm diving out of the PacNW into the northern Rockies. This system starts to spread precip into the NW mountains during the day Wednesday before slowly moving east Thursday and Friday. The system will be accompanied by ample moisture, so the potential for meaningful accumulations is improving. The system will also be accompanied by a strong push of colder air, so most precip will be snowfall, especially Thursday night into Friday. This includes most of the lower elevations as well, with the current forecast totals of 2 to 5 inches. Winter Storm Watches have been posted for the northwestern Mountains and YNP for this system, and may need to be expanded is the snow forecast increases with later updates. The other concern with this next system is the significant cold air push coming with and behind the next system. Cold temperatures will arrive during the day Thursday, with lows Thursday night in the low to mid 20s east of the Divide and in the teens west of the Divide. The main core of the cold air then settles in on Friday, with the core of the cold air setting in Friday night. Probabilities of temperatures falling below 28 degrees are high (>90%), with current forecast lows reaching the teens. The complicating factor will be how quickly cloud cover clears out behind the weather system, allowing for radiational cooling. If clouds hold longer, these teens would likely not be achieved. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 510 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 West of the Divide...KJAC/KRKS/KPNA/KBPI Terminals The main concern this morning is in vicinity of KJAC where evening snow showers have brought areas of fog, occasional IFR to LIFR ceilings will be possible until around 14Z this morning when fog should burn off with VFR conditions returning by 16Z. VFR conditions are expected to prevail elsewhere. There is around a 1 in 5 chance of a shower across southern Sweetwater County in vicinity of KRKS, but not enough confidence to include in the TAFs at this time. A gusty breeze develops after 16Z today at all terminals except KJAC with gusts over 20 knots possible. East of the Divide...KCPR/KCOD/KRIW/KLND/KWRL Terminals All terminals to be VFR through the period. Surface wind speeds are to be much less than those of the previous few days. After a morning lull, westerly wind of 15 to 25 knots mixes is likely at KCOD between 20Z-22Z on Tuesday, with KRIW seeing west- northwest surface wind of 15 to 25 knots developing after 22 to 23Z this afternoon. Otherwise, speeds remain 11kts or less at other terminals. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZLC and ZDV for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday evening through late Thursday night for WYZ001-002-012. && $$ DISCUSSION...Straub AVIATION...Hattings  249 FXUS61 KCLE 141353 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 953 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Convection has developed along a line extending from near Erie, PA southwest towards Marion, OH. This line has developed along a theta-e gradient and is expected to push out of the area over the next few hours. There is not expected to be any severe storms with this line. In addition, SPC has extended the enhanced risk into the far reaches of NWOH, clipping Lucas County in our area. This risk is primarily concerning the overnight convection as models are slowly coming into more agreement that an MCS will develop over WI/MI and push east-southeast overnight. The decaying remnants of this MCS may clip the northern portion of the CWA, which is where the highest concern for severe weather is. Will continue to monitor the 12Z guidance for additional changes to the forecast. As of now, all hazards will be at play tonight with strong winds the biggest concern. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Multiple rounds of storms likely today through Thursday. Storms may be strong to severe at times, best chance this evening into tonight and on Wednesday afternoon/evening. 2) Multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rain may result in flooding, especially on Wednesday. 3) Above normal temperatures expected through Saturday with cooler temperatures returning towards the end of the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Unsettled weather with periodic showers and thunderstorm complexes are expected through Thursday as a frontal boundary wavers to the north of the local area and a series of shortwaves move across the boundary. Given the lack of forcing with the best upper level support to the north of the area, convection over the next couple of days will rely on mesoscale features and the resulting confidence in timing, placement, and strengths of storms remains low at this time. Round 1 (Early Today): The actual first round of storms has exited the area, however the upstream convection over southern Wisconsin and Michigan will need to be monitored through this morning. It's possible that the overnight convection has left some lingering boundaries across the area so will need to keep an eye on the potential for enhanced convergence as this weakening convection moves in. It's possible that the atmosphere is still stabilized due to lingering cloud cover and a mid- level cap, but some elevated instability remains in place. Either way, will need to keep an eye on the potential for elevated storms that could produce gusty winds and hail this morning into this afternoon. Round 2 (This Evening/Tonight): The severe weather potential later this afternoon into tonight will depend on how the early- day convection pans out. Early-day convection may help stabilize things later this evening. On the other hand, the convection could leave behind boundaries and a source for convergence for evening convection maintenance and growth. Additional convection will move in from the northwest this evening into tonight, although there is some potential for scattered showers and storms developing out ahead of the main line of convection at some point early to mid evening. There's quite a bit of disagreement in the forecast amongst CAMs, but overall confidence in the potential for precipitation in general is high for tonight. Despite the unfavorable diurnal timing, relatively high shear values due to a 50 knot LLJ moving into the northern portion of the CWA and deep moisture will result in a favorable environment for thunderstorm maintenance. With this round, damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazard but large hail and a few tornadoes cannot be ruled out given the wind field and lapse rates. Generally expect a weakening trend as the storms move into the area overnight. If stability stays in place, it may be more of a heavy rain scenario (see Key Message 2). There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) of severe weather across northern Ohio with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) over the remainder of the local area. Round 3 (Wednesday): The air mass will change very little on Wednesday and if anything, moisture will increase and forcing may increase slightly as the aforementioned frontal boundary sags a bit further south. Moist and deep west/southwest flow will likely produce sufficient destabilization for scattered showers and storms on Wednesday and CAMs suggest that yet another complex of storms will traverse east across the local area Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. As with previous days, damaging wind gusts and hail will be possible in these storms, although the severe weather threat will depend on mesoscale features that have not yet been resolved. There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) of severe weather across interior NE OH and NW PA with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) elsewhere. Round 4 (Thursday): Additional showers and storms are possible as a cold front pushes east across the local area Thursday into early Friday. Instability may be a bit lower during this timeframe, but the upper level support will allow for potential for organized convection ahead of or along the cold front. There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather on Thursday. A brief break in convection is expected on Friday, but showers and storm chances return on Saturday as a cold front approaches and moves east across the region. Will need to keep an eye on potential for organized storms on Saturday in the upcoming days. KEY MESSAGE 2... Moderate to heavy rainfall rates will accompany thunderstorms through Thursday. The deep, moist west/southwest flow will produce precipitable water values between 1.2 and 1.5 inches (possibly higher at times) through early Thursday. To add some context for how unseasonably high these PWATs are, the 90th percentile for PWATs at surrounding upper air sounding sites for mid-April are generally under an inch with daily maxima of up to about 1.25 inches. Storms should be relatively progressive today into tonight, although the efficient rainfall rates and multiple opportunities for storms could cause some rises on rivers/creeks/streams and cause some minor flooding issues in urban/poor drainage areas. Any precipitation today and tonight will help prime waterways and soils for additional precipitation on Wednesday. As of early this morning, 1-hr FFG values across the area are generally up to 1.5 inches (with locally higher values up to 2 inches) with 3-hr FFG values of generally 1.75-3 inches. Expect these values to decrease with any heavier rainfall this evening/tonight. There's also some potential for backbuilding/training Wednesday into Wednesday night, which would increase flooding concerns for localized areas. Confidence in QPF (especially axes of higher QPF values) is low and will depend on where storms occur, but several CAMs have at least 1 to 2 inches of QPF across portions of the area through early Thursday with locally higher amounts possible where repeated rounds of rain occur. KEY MESSAGE 3... Persistent warm air advection will result in well above normal temperatures through Saturday. Instead of normal lower 60s for highs, highs will be in the 70s with lower 80s possible in areas that clear out a bit today and Wednesday. Cooler temperatures may materialize with persistent cloud cover and precipitation. It will be quite muggy thanks to dew points in the lower 60s. Temperatures will temporarily moderate to below normal values in the 50s Sunday and Monday, but guidance favors a warming trend by the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/... Active stretch of weather expected through the TAF period with multiple possible rounds of thunderstorms, some strong to severe possible. The first round of showers with some embedded thunder will enter from the northwest this morning. Guidance has trended a bit earlier so have -TSRA or -SHRA begin ~12Z and exit this afternoon ~18Z. Have timed out impacts to terminals with the initial round of convection using PROB30 groups across western terminals and TEMPO groups for -SHRA across eastern terminals. The development on the next round of thunderstorms may hinge on what occurs this morning and early afternoon. As of right now, these thunderstorms will develop along and east of CLE around 03Z/Wed with a stronger area of thunderstorms pushing southward across Lake Erie starting at ~04-06Z/Wed. For the TAF, opted for a PROB30 group at all TAF sites for the evening/overnight possible convection. Strong to damaging wind gusts and IFR/MVFR reductions to cigs/vis will be possible in any stronger thunderstorm that moves over a terminal in this later timeframe. Elevated southwesterly winds 12-18 knots with gusts 20-30 knots will remain in place through this evening. Highest wind gusts will occur this afternoon and in any convection. Winds shift southerly tonight and diminish to 10 knots or less through the overnight hours. Outlook...Periods of non-VFR conditions are expected in showers and thunderstorms through Thursday. && .MARINE... Southerly to southwesterly winds remain elevated between 15-20 knots through today. Given the offshore component, the highest wave heights will remain across the open waters of Lake Erie. Southerly to southwesterly winds 12-18 knots will remain across the lake through the end of the week as multiple systems move through the region. Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances will be present through Thursday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...04/15 AVIATION...13 MARINE...13