327 FXUS62 KKEY 141405 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1005 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all Florida Keys coastal waters overnight. Breezy conditions will persist through at least Tuesday evening. - Little to no measurable rain will maintain continued moderate drought conditions in the Florida Keys for the next week. - Temperatures will remain near normal, with highs in the lower 80s, and lows in the lower 70s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 959 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 High pressure centered between the Atlantic Bight and Bermuda supports fresh northeast to east breezes across the Florida Keys this morning. Dewpoints are in the upper 50s to near 60, making for a relatively comfortable mid-April morning. The 12Z KKEY RAOB sampled a 6.0 degC inversion near 820 mb, with a shallow mixed layer barely capable of small patches of drizzle. The forecast calls for slight rain chances (10% or less) and highs in the lower 80s. The only needed modification this morning was an update to the Fire Weather Forecast that highlights moderate Fire Danger Risk and 20 ft winds greater than 15 mph. With dewpoints in the upper 50s, some areas may see RH values fall into the upper 30s. && .MARINE... Issued at 959 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A high pressure system over the central North Atlantic will maintain fresh northeast to east breezes. Occasional fast- moving light showers cannot be ruled out, especially in the overnight periods. Breezes may briefly lull during the late afternoon and early evening across the Gulf waters due to the heating of South Florida. As the high moves farther eastward and slowly weakens, easterly breezes will modestly slacken for Thursday and Friday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 959 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR and gusty easterly breezes will prevail at the EYW and MTH terminals through the afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 82 73 82 73 / 10 10 10 10 Marathon 80 72 80 73 / 10 10 10 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for GMZ052>055-072>075. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...CLR Aviation/Nowcasts....CLR Data Acquisition.....DR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest  517 FXUS61 KOKX 141412 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1012 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The Small Craft Advisory on the ocean has been extended thru the day from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Well above normal temperatures thru Friday. 2) Some showers and thunderstorms possible thru the period, but the best chances look to be north of the area. 2) Strong cold front Sunday with temperatures returning to near to slightly below normal Sunday night and Monday. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... The fcst remains on track for warm wx this week. The NBM was generally followed, although temps along the coasts of NY and CT were adjusted upwards today and Wed closer to the MAV and MET. It looks like the numbers may be weighted a little to heavily on the 2M model data in those spots. Similar adjustments may need to be made for both Thu and Fri. A lack of strong wly flow limits confidence in these areas torching out, but adjusting towards the MOS seemed fairly safe given the warm airmass building in. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Some shwrs and tstms possible thru the week with the area warm sectored. The main convergence zone however looks to remain N and W of the cwa. In this scenario, would expected initiation to generally occur outside of the cwa, then bleed into the area on storm flow or convectively induced boundaries, especially across the interior, for the late aftn and eve hours before completely falling apart. A shrtwv near the end of the week could provide a better focus for both initiation and intensity, but the timing will need to work out to allow for some instability to work with. Although the 00Z GFS has this feature passing thru during the day on Fri, the quicker AI-GFS produces practically nothing with an early mrng passage. Stuck with the NBM for pops and wx throughout the fcst. .KEY MESSAGE 3... A strong cold front is forecast to move through the region during Sunday, while there are still some timing difference, consenus is for a cold frontal passage Sunday afternoon. Showers will accompany the passage, with a chance of thunder as well. After a prolonged period of above normal temperatures, the cold front passage will return temperatures to near to slightly below normal Sunday night through Monday night. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Offshore high pressure to the south will remain in place. Weak low pressure will pass across upstate New York and New England late this afternoon into this evening, bringing a front closer to the Hudson Valley terminals. Mainly VFR through this evening. A late afternoon tstm possible at KSWF, also early evening at the NYC metros, with brief MVFR vsby reduction. Confidence high enough only to mention at KSWF. Fog is possible late tonight at the NYC metros and along the coast. Mostly light SW winds will become more southerly today and increase to 10-15kt with gusts 20-25 kt from the NYC metros north/west and 15- 20kt elsewhere. Winds become more SW-W and diminish to 10 kt or less tonight. LLWS possible at KGON/KISP tonight, with WSW flow 35-40 kt at FL020. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Low chance of a shower reaching the NYC terminals. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... Wednesday through Saturday: Mainly VFR, with chance of afternoon and evening showers/tstms each day, mainly NW of the NYC metros, with brief flight cat reduction to MVFR. SW winds could gust 15-20kt each afternoon Wed-Thu as well. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... The SCA for seas was extended thru the day on the ern 2/3 of the ocean, although it could be canceled a bit early if seas subside quick enough this aftn. Elsewhere, winds will be blw SCA lvls. Winds thru the Thu are expected to remain blw SCA lvls on all waters, but seas on the ocean will hover around 4ft, with 5ft waves possible at times. Despite a cold frontal passage on Fri, winds and waves are still expected to remain blw SCA lvls Fri and Sat attm. && .CLIMATE... Daily record high temperatures that could be reached: Wed, April 15: KEWR: 88/1960 KBDR: 81/1960 KNYC: 87/1941 KLGA: 86/1941 KJFK: 80/2006 KISP: 78/2024 Daily record high minimum temperatures that could be reached: Tue, April 14: KEWR: 62/2014 KBDR: 54/2023 KNYC: 70/2023 KLGA: 67/2023 KJFK: 55/2023 KISP: 54/2022 Wed, April 15: KEWR: 60/2023 KBDR: 53/2012 KNYC: 67/1941 KLGA: 64/1941 KJFK: 58/1960 KISP: 56/2023 Thu, April 16: KEWR: 64/2002 KBDR: 53/2002 KNYC: 69/2002 KLGA: 68/2002 KJFK: 57/2002 KISP: 55/2012 Fri, April 17: KEWR: 68/2002 KBDR: 57/2002 KNYC: 74/2002 KLGA: 73/2002 KJFK: 60/2002 KISP: 61/2002 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350- 353. && $$  415 FXUS61 KLWX 141425 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1025 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Fire Weather SPS was issued for portions of central VA and the Shenandoah Valley through this afternoon. SPC Marginal Risk stretches across the northern half of the forecast area. Rain chances increased a bit, may need to increase more, as 12Z high res guidance comes in. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Record high minimum and high maximum temperatures expected Wednesday and Thursday with an elevated fire weather risk each afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Record high minimum and high maximum temperatures expected Wednesday and Thursday with an elevated fire weather risk each afternoon. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Well above normal temperatures today as highs reach well into the 80s across the area, and 70s in the mountain. As in previous days, breezy southwest winds develop this afternoon with gusts around 20-25 mph. Would not be surprised if a few spots reach 90F. The latest 12Z guidance is a bit more robust when it comes to convection moving across the northern half of the area this afternoon to evening. Given the dry low-level airmass, not expecting widespread convection. Still, steep low level lapse rates and sufficient instability, the few thunderstorms that do develop could become strong. Some of the hig res models indicate wind gusts of 40-50kt are possible. SPC has a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) along and north of a line from Baltimore to Winchester to Petersburg. Upper level ridge will remain the dominant weather feature, cresting over the area Thursday supporting record warmth and dry conditions. While models have shown a slight warm bias in temperatures recently, model trends support 92-93 degs Wed and Thu respectively. Dewpoints will remain in the 50s, which is considerable comfortable. As for convection, very negligible chance of convection Wed and Thu as upper ridge crests over the area. && .AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Gusty afternoon SW winds up to 25 kt between 17Z and 23Z. A slight chance of a showers or thunderstorms at MRB, BWI, MTN, and maybe DCA/IAD. Will evaluate the new guidance to see if PROB30 for TSRA needs to be added for the 18Z TAFs. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the rest of this week with dry conditions. Some risk of convection Friday. && .MARINE... SCA issued for all the waters valid 17Z-00Z. Conditions will likely repeat itself both Wed and Thu. Risk of thunderstorms Fri. && .FIRE WEATHER... Elevated fire weather risk today through Thu due to very warm temperatures, marginally low humidities, and gusty afternoon winds of 20-25 mph. Wed and Thu will have the lowest humidities with values in the mid 20s. An RFW may be needed for both Wed and Thu. && .CLIMATE... Record hi max seem unlikely today, but record hi low seem more likely. Wed and Thu likely to see new records set as highs reach 92-93 degs. Many daily records are likely to be broken this week, for both high temperatures and warm low temperatures. Some stations could tie or set their all-time high temperature and warm low temperature records for the month of April. April 14 Location RECORD HIGH RECORD WARM LOW Washington-National (DCA) 91F (1960) 65F (2014) Washington-Dulles (IAD) 87F (1960) 63F (2014) Baltimore (BWI) 91F (1941) 65F (2018) Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 90F (1960) 67F (2018) Martinsburg (MRB) 87F (1960) 62F (2014) Charlottesville (CHO) 90F (1945) 67F (1899) Annapolis(NAK) 90F (1941) 65F (1977) Hagerstown (HGR) 86F (2024) 64F (2014) April 15 Location RECORD HIGH RECORD WARM LOW Washington-National (DCA) 89F (1941) 65F (2023) Washington-Dulles (IAD) 87F (1967) 62F (2023) Baltimore (BWI) 88F (1941) 65F (1941) Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 92F (2024) 67F (1960) Martinsburg (MRB) 90F (1941) 63F (1967) Charlottesville (CHO) 92F (2024) 68F (1941) Annapolis(NAK) 91F (1941) 68F (1994) Hagerstown (HGR) 85F (1960) 61F (2023) April 16 Location RECORD HIGH RECORD WARM LOW Washington-National (DCA) 92F (2002) 65F (2017) Washington-Dulles (IAD) 91F (2002) 63F (2017) Baltimore (BWI) 90F (2012) 66F (1941) Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 91F (2012) 65F (2012) Martinsburg (MRB) 90F (2002) 63F (2017) Charlottesville (CHO) 92F (1976) 67F (1941) Annapolis(NAK) 89F (2017) 70F (1994) Hagerstown (HGR) 88F (2002) 62F (2002) April 17 Location RECORD HIGH RECORD WARM LOW Washington-National (DCA) 95F (2002) 65F (2002) Washington-Dulles (IAD) 93F (2002) 59F (2024) Baltimore (BWI) 93F (2002) 66F (1896) Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 95F (2002) 66F (1976) Martinsburg (MRB) 93F (2002) 60F (1941) Charlottesville (CHO) 94F (1976) 65F (1976) Annapolis(NAK) 90F (1976) 68F (1994) Hagerstown (HGR) 90F (2002) 64F (2002) All-Time April Record Highs: Washington-National (DCA) 95F 4/17/2002, 4/18/1976, 4/23/1960 4/27/1915 Washington-Dulles (IAD) 93F 4/6/2010, 4/17/2002, 4/25/1960 Baltimore (BWI) 94F 4/25/1960, 4/23/1960, 4/20/1941, 4/18/1896 Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 98F 4/26/1990, 4/22/1985 Martinsburg (MRB) 96F 4/21/1941 Charlottesville (CHO) 98F 4/24-25/1925 Annapolis(NAK) 95F 4/20/1941 Hagerstown (HGR) 94F 4/6/2010, 4/18/1976, 4/26/1915 All-Time April Record Warm-Lows: Washington-National (DCA) 70F 4/29/2017 Washington-Dulles (IAD) 68F 4/27/2011 Baltimore (BWI) 70F 4/19/1896 Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 76F 4/26/1990 Martinsburg (MRB) 69F 4/19/2025 Charlottesville (CHO) 72F 4/26/1915 Annapolis(NAK) 70F 4/28/1994, 4/16/1994, 4/18/1896 Hagerstown (HGR) 69F 4/27/2009 && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ530>543. && $$ DISCUSSION...LFR/KRR AVIATION...LFR/KRR MARINE...LFR  632 FXUS61 KBTV 141439 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1039 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 1030 AM EDT Tuesday... Updated to adjust pops/temps and severe wording based on latest surface trends/radar imagery and 12z guidance. This include mentioning small hail, gusty winds and heavy rainfall along and south of a SLK to BTV to MPV line between 17z and 23z today. SPC has expanded the slight risk northward toward the International Border with 1230 UTC update. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 1030 AM EDT Tuesday... 1. Strong to severe thunderstorm potential has expanded slightly northward, but greatest probability is Essex County NY into Addison/Orange Counties and south. Primary threat is gusty winds, but small hail and brief tornado is possible. 2. Additional precipitation chances and warm temperatures will continue through the end of the work week with some embedded thunderstorm chances in the afternoons. 3. A more amplified weather pattern and shortwave will lead to unseasonably warm conditions and scattered rain showers at the end of the week. 4. A round of widespread showers Saturday night and Sunday will usher in a sharply cooler period early next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 1030 AM EDT Tuesday... KEY MESSAGE 1: Surface analysis shows low pres north of Lake Erie with greatest 3hr pres falls toward the Ottawa Valley, while a shallow terrain driven boundary remains draped acrs our cwa this morning. As low pres tracks to our north, this boundary should lift northward and temps will quickly warm, especially south of a SLK to Middlebury to LEB line this aftn. This warming bl wl result in sfc based CAPE values climbing into the 500-1000 J/kg range, which combined with favorable deep layer shear of 40 to 50 knots, wl result in strong to locally severe thunderstorms possibilities as s/w energy arrives this aftn. Given the boundary and low level turning of wind fields, a small/weak tornado is possible, this is supported by 0-1km SRH of 100-200 m^2/s^2 and 0-3km values >300. Greatest threat based on analysis would be central Addison County btwn 18z-21z this aftn. Otherwise, still some uncertainty on amount of clearing/instability that can develop, especially further north from a BTV to 1V4 line. We did place small hail, gusty winds and heavy rainfall into the fcst to cover strong thunderstorm potential for our central/southern cwa this aftn. Also, made some minor tweaks to pops and temps as warming has been delayed due to clouds this morning. Previous Discussion below: An area of enhanced convection associated with an MCS is currently tracking across the Great Lakes this morning with widespread lightning as it approaches our area. This area of energy is riding along a nearly stationary boundary that is draped across our region with a weak surface low centered over Lake Michigan. This sfc low will track near the International Border by this afternoon bringing widespread shower and thunderstorm chances. The latest SPC day1 outlook shows a Slight Risk (2 out of 5) south of a line from Saranac Lake, NY to Lebanon, NH, with a Marginal Risk (1 out of 5) for the rest of the region. The main threat with any thunderstorms today will be potentially damaging gusty winds. A cold front associated with the sfc low will begin to organize itself into a broken line of showers as early as noon today across the St. Lawrence Valley. Instability ahead of the line remains somewhat uncertain for most of the region with high clouds and a lack of diurnal heating time as the boundary slides east. HRRR and RRFS models denote an earlier boundary progression between 3 and 5 PM in the CPV, whereas the NAM3k continues to favor a later arrival to the CPV between 6 PM and 8 PM, which the latter would be favorable for stronger storms. Any instability in the warm sector will be maximized in the southern Champlain Valley and southern Vermont where some clearing and higher temperatures into the 70s will allow Sfc CAPE to rise to 400-600J/kg progged in the HRRR, supported by HREF probability maximums of 40-60% across southern Vermont. Furthermore, these warming temperatures will allow lapse rates to rise to 7-8C/km supporting areas of thunderstorms development. A low level jet across the International Border will help support 0 to 6 km shear to 40 to 50 knots mainly north of US 4, but with pockets of embedded 40-50 knots of shear in southern Vermont. This highlights the strongest winds are north and the highest instability is south. These pockets of embedded higher shear will be colocated with curving hodographs and around 200 m2/s2 0 to 3 km SRH which would support some isolated areas of rotation. However, failure modes do exist, with convective blowoff limiting instability potential, LCLs to above 1000 m, and the innate climatology of rotation for our region that would not favor any supercells this time of year. Localized heavy rain cannot be ruled out with Pwats around 1 to 1.25 inches, but progressive storm motion, and lack of training storm signals keeps this threat level low. This will be a nowcasting type of day as we watch how the environment evolves throughout the day to see how robust convection will be. For now the greatest action will likely be across Rutland/Windsor Counties with the potential for damaging wind gusts above 60 MPH, with most of the overall action south of our CWA. KEY MESSAGE 2: An active weather pattern is expected through mid week into late week as a nearly stationary boundary becomes draped across the region north of a ridge over the Southeast. Multiple shortwaves will ride along this ridge under westerly flow producing additional chances for precipitation through the late week. The stationary boundary will likely fluctuate from day to day depending on both mesoscale features like residual convective prior day activity and synoptic flow. These changes will have significant impacts on temperatures and daytime instability for both Wednesday and Thursday. Latest trends indicate the Wednesday system arriving during the late morning into early afternoon with embedded thunderstorms possible. Given the timing thunderstorm chances will be limited, but the best chances will be across central and southern Vermont. This setup will be similar to todays thunderstorm potential, but the boundary may setup a bit south of todays, which would limit the available instability. HRRR/NAM3 profiles show weaker lapse rates with a low LCL and potential strong inversion above 500 ft. There will be little change in the overall airmass with temperatures still rising into the upper 60s to low 70s in southern Vermont and in the upper 50s to low 60s elsewhere. Thursday will will almost be a carbon copy of Wednesday, and as usual, instability will be the driving factor for any thunderstorm potential. Trends for Thursday have been towards some morning convection which will limit the afternoon instability and thunderstorm threat, but with these setups, boundary motion is hard to nail down, and where and if these thunderstorms develop is still uncertain. Regardless, most of the area can expected rounds of showers and embedded thunderstorms and warm temperatures through the late week. KEY MESSAGE 3: A quick-hitting shortwave will bring some rain showers and potential embedded thunderstorms, mainly in southern Vermont, on Friday as guidance indicates 925mb temperatures could reach 13-17 C Friday afternoon. Due to this and decreasing clouds, forecast surface temps are as high as the 60s and lower 70s, with non-zero instability values projected. Probability of measurable precipitation runs about 30-60% Friday afternoon, likely realized as spotty showers everywhere and a few rumbles of thunder in central/southern Vermont. Lows Friday night should remain mild in the 40s and lower 50s, with only a brief period of high pressure between systems late Friday night and Saturday morning. The next chance for precipitation arrives late Saturday afternoon and evening as a larger frontal system approaches. Despite increasing clouds, temperatures are expected to again rise above seasonable normals Saturday, reaching into the 60s in strong southerly flow and modest warm air advection. KEY MESSAGE 4: A large frontal system, centered over Ontario and the Hudson Bay Saturday night, will drag a cold frontal boundary through the forecast area into Sunday. Lows Saturday night in the 40s and lower 50s will fall into the upper 20s to mid 30s on Sunday night, and highs Sunday in the mid 50s to lower 60s become upper 30s to mid 40s Monday as cooler air spills into the region on northwesterly flow behind a secondary cold front. Probabilities of measurable precipitation in six hours are about 50-65% by Sunday afternoon, though probabilities of rainfall 0.50" within 24 hours during this period is around 10-30%. Thunderstorms are most likely Sunday afternoon in northern New York when warmth lingers, but the timing of instability, warmth, and forcing do not align favorably for widespread t-storms in this system as the best forcing occurs at night. Sunday night and Monday, as temperatures fall, there is the potential for some snow showers, mainly at higher elevations, before the arrival of drier air behind a secondary front tapers off precip. High pressure keeps weather quieter and cool toward the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 12Z Wednesday...Low clouds and fog will disperse and lift this morning. Showers with embedded thunderstorms are likely today, with a couple stronger storms possible. Damaging winds will be the main threat with any severe storms. An area of enhanced convection is currently tracking across the Great Lakes this morning with widespread lightning as it approaches our area from the west. Question remains on how much clouds clear up throughout the day today. Most likely seeing cigs lift to widespread VFR levels until showers and thunderstorms come through this afternoon and evening, lowering cigs back to MVFR and potentially IFR. Vis will also be limited in showers and t-storms, though confidence is lower on the exact timing of t-storms and their lowered visibilities. Wind gusts out of the southwest 15-25 knots for most sites are likely with the passage of the showers and t-storms in the afternoon. Some LLWS is also expected as southwest to west winds at 2000 ft agl increase along the showers/storms, around 16Z-20Z Tuesday onwards. After the showers/storms pass through each site, ceilings are expected to lower to widespread IFR by around 00Z Wednesday. Outlook... Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. && .CLIMATE... As of 344 AM EDT Tuesday... Incoming warmer air is presently forecast to approach daily record values. The most likely dates for near or broken records will be today with mild overnight air leading to high minimum temperatures. Below are some of the daily records in jeopardy of being broken (current forecast at or within 3 degrees of the record). Record High Minimum Temperatures: April 14: KBTV: 54/2023 KPBG: 51/1964 KSLK: 47/1964 && .EQUIPMENT... The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service. This site is not serviced by the NWS. An estimated return to service is May 1st. Please contact us if you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational forecast. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Taber DISCUSSION...Danzig/Taber/Storm AVIATION...Storm CLIMATE...NWS BTV EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV  773 FXUS64 KTSA 141452 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 952 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 951 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - A window for higher-end severe weather potential exists today into Wednesday. - Warm, humid, and breezy southerly flow continues for much of the week. Most days will have at least a low chance of precipitation. - Another chance of showers and thunderstorms, some potentially severe, is expected during the day Friday to Saturday before cooler air arrives behind a cold front. && .UPDATE... Issued at 951 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The overall forecast is in good shape, with the main adjustments being to POPs this afternoon, to delay the eastward spread of the higher values into the overnight period. A mention of severe thunderstorms has also been added from 21Z today though 06Z Wednesday. Expectations for later today remain consistent from the last couple of days, with the severe weather threat highest in areas north and west of Tulsa beginning late afternoon into early evening. The overall threat looks to be dominated by the potential for very large hail and damaging winds to 75 mph given forecast soundings, although they are also supportive of a low tornado threat. Prior to these stronger storms, isolated shower and sub- severe storm development remains possible to the east beginning early afternoon, where slight chance POPs will be maintained. Updated forecast already out. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Tuesday Night) Issued at 1137 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Quiet, mild, and breezy weather will persevere overnight tonight and through Tuesday morning. Will maintain very low PoPs (around 10%) area-wide through around midday, with an isolated shower/storm possible. For what its worth, high resolution models (CAMs) show the highest chances of light precipitation occurring in the terrain areas of southeast OK and northwest AR, where orographic lifting may produce a few showers/storms. Most locations should remain dry through at least noon Tuesday. Around midday, a positively tilted mid-level trough will begin to center itself over the Rockies. Low/mid-level ascent and upper- level divergence will overspread the region. At the surface, a sharp dryline will remain anchored across western OK. This dryline is forecast to orient itself more southwest to northeast by the afternoon. Latest CAMs suggest there may be isolated convection west of the forecast area early in the afternoon, but more robust convection is anticipated to initiate along the dryline in central/north-central OK late in the afternoon before moving into the forecast area early in the evening. Exact coverage of storms is still a little nebulous at this time, but current thinking is isolated to widely scattered storms will move into eastern OK around or just before sunset, with best overall severe potential near and north of I-44. A plethora of instability, deep layer shear, and moisture will be in place for the potential of all severe weather hazards, including large hail, damaging wind gusts, and isolated tornadoes. In fact, the atmosphere will be primed for long-track supercells to take place if cells are able to stay discrete. Despite a capping inversion trying to develop after sunset, the tornado threat will remain in place through at least mid-evening as a 40-50 knot low-level jet develops north of I-40, keeping low-level shear elevated. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will continue through the late evening and overnight hours, but at this time, the severe threat is expected to trend lower as storms continue to shift into far eastern OK and northwest AR and away from the better support for strong/severe storms. Another breezy and mild night is forecast Tuesday night, with overnight lows generally in the mid-60s. Mejia && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 1137 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A very similar, unstable weather setup will occur on Wednesday. The mid/upper-level trough from Tuesday will move over the Plains on Wednesday afternoon. Instability, moisture, deep layer shear, and lift will all be sufficient or more than enough for all severe weather hazards to occur, especially during the late afternoon and evening hours. There is still some uncertainty on how things evolve Wednesday and may or may not depend on what happens Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Models show a couple of weak perturbations ejecting ahead of the main trough axis mid-late Wednesday morning, sparking convection across eastern OK and northwestern AR through the early-mid afternoon hours. Models show an uncapped environment with these storms and they would have the potential to become severe. But the main severe potential is still expected to occur late afternoon into the evening as storms initiate off the dryline, which will be situated across central/north-central OK. Better details on the severe weather setup on Wednesday to come over the next 24 hours. The aforementioned trough will finally exit Thursday morning/afternoon. Very warm and humid conditions will continue Thursday and Friday, with afternoon high temperatures reaching the low-mid 80s both days. Another potent upper-level storm system will approach from the west on Friday, introducing the next opportunity of precipitation and will also bring additional severe thunderstorm opportunities to the area during the afternoon and evening. Details are even more indefinite with this system and more information will be added over the next few days. A cold front will push through the forecast area on the backside of the the departing storm system Friday night into Saturday morning. Precipitation chances should end by Saturday afternoon, with dry weather through at least Sunday night. Much cooler and drier weather is anticipated behind the front on Saturday, Sunday and even through the first part of the upcoming workweek, with temperatures dropping closer to seasonal average. Low-end precipitation chances may creep back into the forecast next Monday afternoon/evening as a weak and subtle wave approaches from the west. Mejia && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 625 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 MVFR cigs should scatter out or become VFR this afternoon. The latest CAM guidance suggests NE OK, and especially KBVO, stands the best chance for storms through tonight. Used TEMPO at KBVO and PROB30s at the other NE OK sites. Also used some PROB30 mention over in far NW AR toward Wed morning with some hints of showers or isolated storms there. MVFR cigs are expected to return to some sites toward the tail end of this forecast. Lacy && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 84 67 77 62 / 30 70 80 60 FSM 84 67 80 64 / 20 50 70 90 MLC 82 66 77 64 / 20 70 80 70 BVO 86 64 78 57 / 40 60 70 60 FYV 82 64 76 61 / 20 60 70 90 BYV 83 66 77 62 / 20 60 70 90 MKO 82 65 76 61 / 30 70 80 70 MIO 83 65 75 61 / 30 70 80 80 F10 82 64 76 62 / 30 70 80 60 HHW 81 65 77 64 / 20 30 60 80 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...67 LONG TERM....67 AVIATION...30  954 FXUS63 KBIS 141452 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 952 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Low chance of light rain across the south tonight. - Mainly dry and warmer today and Wednesday. - Wide range in temperatures from northwest to southeast Thursday as a cold front pushes into the state. - Significant cool down for the end of the week, with medium chances for rain and snow. && .UPDATE... Issued at 947 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Rain and snow has exited the forecast area. Still a couple areas of patchy dense fog, but vsbys look to be improving. We do have a SPS continuing through 10:30 AM for the Highway 2 corridor in the northwest. For the morning update we increased sky cover through this morning for most areas. The low stratus has cleared in the southwest. UPDATE Issued at 645 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Showers are found over north central North Dakota at the time of this early morning update. The heaviest precpitation occurring over Pierce and Rolette counties, where rain has transitioned to snow over the past few hours. Visibilities over this area have been consistently around 1/2 to 2 miles while snow has been falling, so we wouldn't be surprised to see accumulations on grass and elevated surfaces once the sun rises. Precpitation will generally end over the next few hours as the inciting low continues to exit to the northeast. Otherwise this morning, fog has developed where precpitation has ceased across the west and south central. A tour of NDDOT camera reveals it to be fairly patchy, except over the far south central where it has been a little more consistently socked in. Fog is generally expected to lift through the mid morning. With this update, have made tweaks to the PoPs and sky grids to account for the latest model trends, and bumped up fog in the far south central. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track at this time. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The remnants of precpitation overnight continue to exit to the northeast with the inciting low pressure center this morning. While still mainly falling as light rain, some snow may become mixed into this is precpitation in the Turtle Mountains area as cooler air wraps around the low. Little to no snow accumulation is expected. Low stratus and some patchy fog lingers behind the rain, though both are expected to clear from west to east through through the mid morning. Lows are broadly in the 30s to lower 40s. Near zonal to slightly southwesterly flow is expected over the northern Plains as another transient shortwave / closed low cross the region. Short term deterministic models continue to nudge the track of this low slightly further and further north over the past few forecast cycles, skimming across our southern counties late this afternoon and overnight. With this more northerly track, there is some potential for light precpitation across portions of the northwest and north central during this period. An interrogation of BUFKIT model soundings across the south this evening reveals a fairly dry layer near surface layer than any precpitation that does form would need to overcome, thus have opted to limit precpitation to a very low chance (<20 percent). Otherwise, cloud cover across the south central might be a little slow to clear out through today compared to the north and far west with this shortwave. Highs this afternoon are above normal by around 5 to 10 degrees, forecast broadly in the mid 50s east to mid 60s west. Lows tonight are expected to be in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Dry and warm conditions linger through Wednesday, with highs peaking well into the 60s to lower 70s across the forecast area. Flow over the northern Plains is expected to turn increasingly southwesterly through late Wednesday and through the day Thursday as closed upper level Pacific trough and associated surface low makes it way across southwestern Canada. As the influence of this low complex increases through the day on Thursday, a fairly stark gradient in high temperatures is expected in the afternoon, from the lower 40s across the north up to the mid 70s in the far south central. Chances for precpitation will also increase from northwest to southeast through the day Thursday, becoming likely overnight through Friday morning. The ensemble continues to advertise a general transition from mostly rain Thursday to a rain-snow mix or all snow overnight into Friday as the cold front associated with the low complex digs across the forecast area. There remains some disagreement about when and where this transition occurs, with a slight majority of clusters (55 percent) favoring a slightly slower evolution of the system, allowing for a greater amount of the precpitation associated with this wave to fall during the coolest period of the night. With this, light snow accumulations up to an inch or two are possible across much of western and central North Dakota, though the highest amounts would be along the International Border. A minority cluster (45 percent) favors a slightly quicker low, allowing for the bulk of precpitation across the west and south to fall mainly as rain. In this scenario, light snow accumulations would mainly be limited to the far north central. In either scenario, this snow isn't expected to be impactful, or last on the ground very long at all. Otherwise, breezy to windy conditions are expected both Thursday and Friday as a sharp pressure gradient develops across the forecast area. With these winds being gradient driven, we don't expect these winds to be overly impactful, perhaps near advisory at best across portions of the southwest. This thinking is backed by the lack of any highlight in the EFI during this period. Below normal highs in the 30s and 40s can be anticipated both Friday and Saturday with the much cooler airmass situated over the northern Plains, before a developing longwave ridge across much of the western CONUS will help warming temperatures return late in the weekend into early next week. There remains a decent amount of disagreement within the ensemble on timing, resulting in a 15 to 20 degree spread in highs Monday and Tuesday, but all clusters appear to resolve in a brief blocking pattern setting up early next week. With this, dry conditions can also be anticipated during this period. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 645 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Mainly MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibility can be found to begin the 12Z TAF period. Ceilings have been fairly variable overnight, occasionally dipping down to LIFR levels, though they are expected to start improving to VFR conditions from west to east through the morning into the early afternoon. An area of showers continues to move across north central North Dakota this morning, falling mostly as rain with some snow mixing in across the Turtle Mountains area, though precipitation is no longer expected at any terminals. Winds are expected to remain around 10 kts or less through much of the period, turning out of the east this morning to the west this afternoon, then out of the south tonight. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...TWH DISCUSSION...Adam AVIATION...Adam