847 FXUS64 KHUN 141510 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1010 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM... Friday .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1010 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Low relative humidity values, dry fuels, and gusty winds will result in elevated fire weather conditions today through Wednesday. - There are medium chances (30-40%) of showers and storms on Thursday. - Medium chances (30-60%) of showers and storms return on Saturday. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 1010 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The upper level pattern remains unchanged with ridging east and troughing west. Current satellite imagery shows high level cirrus moving from west to east across the area, but otherwise mostly sunny skies are forecast today. High pressure centered near the GA/FL state line will reinforce the dry and warm airmass with southerly flow throughout the day. As a result, dewpoints are expected to mix out this afternoon from the upper 50s down into the upper 40s to lower 50s with the lowest values in NE AL. With afternoon highs forecast to rise into the mid 80s, this would drop RH values into the 25-35 percent range. The good news is that winds will remain below red flag criteria with gusts this afternoon around 15 mph. Given the very dry fuels, this may result in localized elevated fire weather conditions and caution continues to be urged. Tranquil conditions continue tonight with overnight lows dropping down into the upper 50s to lower 60s. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Thursday Night) Issued at 1010 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Near record warmth is forecast through the short term period with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s on Wednesday and Thursday. These temperatures are around 10 degrees above climatological normals for this time of year. Locally, not much change is in store as high pressure along the Southeast coast continues to be the main factor in our local weather pattern. One thing to watch is on Thursday as a shortwave riding along the trough to our west will push eastward towards the Tennessee River Valley. This will bring a low to medium chance (20-40%) of showers and thunderstorms Thursday evening. Unfortunately, overall rain amounts will remain quite low and will not put much of a dent into our deficit this Spring. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 1052 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 The extended forecast period will begin with a continuation of warm/dry conditions, as a 500-mb ridge builds northeastward in the wake of a low amplitude shortwave trough and weak surface low tracking eastward across the northern Mid-Atlantic states. With only a few high-based cumulus anticipated beneath a strengthening mid- level inversion and light SSW flow in the low-levels, most valley locations will experience highs in the u80s-l90s. Low-level flow will begin to increase on Friday evening as a deepening vort max (embedded within the base of a broader trough extending from southern Canada into the northern Plains) begins to eject northeastward into the MO Valley, resulting in development of a frontal wave that will lift northeastward from KS into WI by 12Z Saturday. Latest model guidance suggests that both the mid-level wave and surface low will undergo substantial intensification as they progress further northeastward into eastern OT/western QC by 12Z Sunday, with showers and thunderstorms expected to develop along the length of the trailing cold front and perhaps a prefrontal surface trough (from IL/IN into the northwestern Gulf Coast) Saturday afternoon. As the cold front begins to overtake the surface trough across the TN Valley Saturday evening, chances for much needed rainfall will increase across our forecast area, but there remains a large amount of uncertainty regarding rainfall amounts (ranging from around 0.05-0.10" as a worst case scenario to 0.5-0.75" as a best case scenario). This is likely due to the combination of substantial amount of lingering CINH noted in forecast soundings and a narrow plume of modified Gulf moisture which will only overspread the entire region immediately in advance of the front. Should the low/mid-level thermodynamic profile improve, rainfall amounts would likely be closer to the best case scenario, and a few strong storms capable of producing gusty winds would also be probable given sufficiently strong WSW flow aloft (45-55 knots) for updraft organization. Regardless, the front appears as if it will be exiting our region early Sunday morning, with any lingering precipitation ending in our southeastern zones around 12Z Sunday. A cooler/drier continental airmass will overspread the region for the remainder of the period, featuring highs in the u60s-l70s Sunday and overnight lows in the l-m 40s Monday morning. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 528 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the period with a mostly clear sky. Winds may become gusty out of the SSW/SW this afternoon between 10-15 kts, before weakening after sunset. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...GH SHORT TERM....GH LONG TERM....70 AVIATION...AMP  128 FXUS65 KRIW 141519 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 919 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light snow shower chances (20%) exist through 6PM MDT across the western mountains, the Bighorns, and Casper Mountain. A light drizzle cannot be ruled out in Casper. - A potent winter storm is forecast to bring widespread precipitation, wind, and freezing temperatures to the entire area beginning late Wednesday until Friday evening. Confidence in measurable snowfall continues to increase for low elevations. - There is high (90% +) confidence in a hard freeze (28 degrees or below) across low elevations Friday morning and Saturday morning, with the potential for widespread lows in the teens on Saturday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 145 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Finally a more active pattern across Wyoming trying to bring precipitation! The latest system is a trough ejecting into the central Plains from the Four Corners region. This system is set a little too far south to bring a significant amount of precip, but still enough energy to produce precip for areas of Casper Mountain, the Bighorns, and higher elevations of the Tetons. But this does set the table for a potent late winter storm diving out of the PacNW into the northern Rockies. This system starts to spread precip into the NW mountains during the day Wednesday before slowly moving east Thursday and Friday. The system will be accompanied by ample moisture, so the potential for meaningful accumulations is improving. The system will also be accompanied by a strong push of colder air, so most precip will be snowfall, especially Thursday night into Friday. This includes most of the lower elevations as well, with the current forecast totals of 2 to 5 inches. Winter Storm Watches have been posted for the northwestern Mountains and YNP for this system, and may need to be expanded is the snow forecast increases with later updates. The other concern with this next system is the significant cold air push coming with and behind the next system. Cold temperatures will arrive during the day Thursday, with lows Thursday night in the low to mid 20s east of the Divide and in the teens west of the Divide. The main core of the cold air then settles in on Friday, with the core of the cold air setting in Friday night. Probabilities of temperatures falling below 28 degrees are high (>90%), with current forecast lows reaching the teens. The complicating factor will be how quickly cloud cover clears out behind the weather system, allowing for radiational cooling. If clouds hold longer, these teens would likely not be achieved. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 510 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 West of the Divide...KJAC/KRKS/KPNA/KBPI Terminals The main concern this morning is in vicinity of KJAC where evening snow showers have brought areas of fog, occasional IFR to LIFR ceilings will be possible until around 14Z this morning when fog should burn off with VFR conditions returning by 16Z. VFR conditions are expected to prevail elsewhere. There is around a 1 in 5 chance of a shower across southern Sweetwater County in vicinity of KRKS, but not enough confidence to include in the TAFs at this time. A gusty breeze develops after 16Z today at all terminals except KJAC with gusts over 20 knots possible. East of the Divide...KCPR/KCOD/KRIW/KLND/KWRL Terminals All terminals to be VFR through the period. Surface wind speeds are to be much less than those of the previous few days. After a morning lull, westerly wind of 15 to 25 knots mixes is likely at KCOD between 20Z-22Z on Tuesday, with KRIW seeing west- northwest surface wind of 15 to 25 knots developing after 22 to 23Z this afternoon. Otherwise, speeds remain 11kts or less at other terminals. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZLC and ZDV for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday evening through late Thursday night for WYZ001-002-012. && $$ DISCUSSION...Straub AVIATION...Hattings  797 FXUS64 KOHX 141548 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1048 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1029 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - There is an enhanced fire danger on Wednesday due to dry fuels, low RH values and gusty winds. - Expect unseasonal warmth to last through Saturday. - There are medium to high rain/storm chances Thursday and Thursday evening, and again this weekend. No severe weather is anticipated. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 1029 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Middle Tennessee finds itself under the influence of an early- season Bermuda High pattern today, and this will continue through tomorrow. There will be an elevated fire danger on Wednesday owing to dry fuels, afternoon RH values bottoming out in the 30-35% range most areas, and gusty winds. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1029 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A quasi-stationary surface boundary currently is situated to our northwest, and this will eventually bring rain and storm chances to the region on Thursday and Thursday evening. We can expect some instability with this environment, especially over northwest portions of the mid state, but the risk of any severe storms is very low, and, unfortunately, QPF values don't bring much hope that our burgeoning drought conditions will abate. Indeed, the frontal boundary will dry out considerably as it comes through Middle Tennessee, and so expected rainfall totals taper off from northwest to southeast. A stronger cold front is poised to sweep across the region on Saturday and Saturday evening. Again, QPF values won't move the needle much regarding the drought. In fact, the pre-frontal air mass will be so dry that the bulk of the convection that develops from this system will be post-frontal, so that will definitely limit the severe potential. However, temperatures behind the fropa will be considerably cooler, and that will be primary impact from our weekend cold front. Low temperatures Sunday night/Monday morning will range primarily from the upper 30s to low 40s; a few of our higher elevation spots may even wake up to a light frost. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 551 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions for this TAF cycle. Winds will carry the biggest impact with southwest gusts of 20-25 kts from 14-23Z today. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 87 64 86 65 / 0 0 0 10 Clarksville 88 66 86 66 / 0 0 0 40 Crossville 82 57 82 59 / 0 0 0 10 Columbia 86 62 85 63 / 0 0 0 10 Cookeville 82 60 82 62 / 0 0 0 10 Jamestown 83 60 83 59 / 0 0 0 10 Lawrenceburg 84 60 84 62 / 0 0 0 10 Murfreesboro 86 61 86 63 / 0 0 0 10 Waverly 87 66 86 67 / 0 0 0 30 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rose LONG TERM....Rose AVIATION.....Unger