307 FXUS66 KLOX 141612 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 912 AM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .SYNOPSIS...14/902 AM. Dry and warmer weather is expected for the remainder of this week. Gusty northerly winds will develop over much of the area on Thursday, shifting to northeast and becoming focused over Los Angeles and Ventura Counties on Friday. The next chance of rain will be next Monday. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...14/911 AM. ***UPDATE*** A mostly quiet weather day today as the storm has shifted east and weak high pressure nudges into California. Temperatures will be warmer than yesterday but still a few degrees below normal. One area of mild concern today is the western portion of southern Santa Barbara County where increasing north winds are expected this afternoon which may require some low end wind advisories. Not quite as strong winds Wednesday evening but still possibly requiring wind advisories. Still looking at a likely Santa Ana wind event Friday, potentially moderate to locally strong as some of the ensemble gradients are approaching 8mb and the NAM came in this morning with 50kt of upper air support. ***From Previous Discussion*** A weak ridge will be over the area on Wednesday. Hgts will rise to about 573 dam. At the sfc there will be weak onshore flow to the east and weak offshore flow from the north. There will likely be some morning low clouds with the best chance across the Central Coast. Skies will be partly cloudy in the afternoon as some mid level clouds work their way through the ridge. Max temps will not change much Tuesday's values. The northerly offshore flow will continue Wednesday night. The winds across the SBA south coast will be a little weaker and may not reach advisory levels, but there will be an uptick in the winds through the i-5 corridor. A weak eddy is forecast to bring Low clouds and fog the LA and VTA cst as well as the San Gabriel Vly - this is a pretty low confidence fcst given the northerly offshore push and would not be surprised if the low clouds stay more to the south. An inside slider will start its journey down the CA/NV line on Thursday. Hgts will lower to around 568 dam. Sfc grads will not change much with offshore flow from the north and onshore flow to the east. The northerly offshore flow will bring a few degrees of warming to the csts and vlys, but will cool the far interior by dragging in cooler air from the San Joaquin Vly. Most max temps will end up a degree or two blo normal. .LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...14/234 AM. As is typical with the passage of an inside slider, a Santa Ana wind event will set up. About 4 mb of offshore flow will develop from both the N and E. There is not much upper level support to help the gradients out, but even so there will likely be low end advisory level gusts in the windier locations. Downsloping winds will bring 3 to 5 degrees of warming to most of the csts and vlys. The absence of cool air advection will allow the interior to warm 2 to 4 degrees. Due west flow moves in at the upper levels on Saturday. There will still be 2 to 3 degrees of offshore flow in the morning, but with no upper support it will only generate sub advisory canyon winds. Max temps will continue to warm with the offshore flow and 3 to 5 degrees of additional warm seems likely. This will bring max temps up into the upper 70s to mid 80s for most of csts/vlys which is 4 to 8 degrees above normal. The pattern will shift on Sunday as a large upper low moves closer to the Pacific NW. Srn CA will not feel the effects of the low, but the switch to onshore flow will bring a chc of coastal low clouds along with 2 to 4 degrees of cooling across most of the csts and vlys. Mdls and ensembles continue to struggle with the strength and location of the upper low on Monday. The AI-mdls favor the GFS solution of a slower and colder track. Right now the algorithmically adjusted blended ensemble forecast brings only a slight chc of rain to the north of Point Conception. The AI- solutions along with the GFS would favor a better chc of rain across most of the area. Still its 7 days away and there will be plenty of time to seek mdl convergence. No matter what happens with the rain it will be a much cooler day by as much as 8 degrees. && .AVIATION...14/1445Z. At 1500Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer or inversion. For the 18Z TAF package, moderate to high confidence in current forecasts. Through this evening, high confidence in CAVU conditions for all sites. Late tonight, there is a 50% chance of LIFR/VLIFR conditions at KSMX, KSMO, KLAX and KLGB. Timing of this potential return is low. KLAX...Overall, moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Through this evening, high confidence in CAVU conditions. For late tonight, there is a 50% chance that CIG/VSBY restrictions do not develop. No significant easterly wind component is expected. KBUR...High confidence in 18Z TAF as CAVU conditions are expected through the period. && .MARINE...14/745 AM. For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Friday, high confidence in a combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas. On Thursday and Thursday night, there is a 30-40% chance of GALE force winds. For Saturday, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds. For Saturday, there is a 50-60% chance of SCA level winds. For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. For today through Thursday, high confidence in SCA level winds during the afternoon and evening hours. On Friday and Saturday, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours. For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. For today through Wednesday, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel with high confidence in conditions remaining below SCA elsewhere. For Thursday, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds across all western sections. For Friday and Saturday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 2 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT Wednesday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...MW/Rorke AVIATION...RAT MARINE...RAT SYNOPSIS...MW weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox  579 FXUS63 KDDC 141616 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1116 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong southwesterly winds today; critical fire weather conditions - Elevated to critical fire conditions Thursday - Varying levels of convective chances this week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 103 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Strong southwesterly winds and a critical fire weather day is expected across the entire forecast area today as strong southwesterly flow will be present with the approach of trough. With efficient mixing, expect area-wide southwesterly winds 25-35 mph with gusts 25-50 mph. The strongest of the winds are expected in southwest zones. This is where travel could become rather difficult for high-profile vehicles and greatest fire spread of any potential fires. See fire weather discussion for details on the fire weather potential today and Thursday. Precipitation chances throughout the forecast period continue to be pretty sparse. However, placement of the dry line will dictate the level of convection that could occur within our eastern forecast area this week. For today, short-range guidance is struggling with the placement of the retreating dry line early this morning, and therefore uncertainty will exist on placement throughout this afternoon. In any case, the greatest chance for any thunderstorms will be in our far east where we currently have 20-30% POPs this afternoon and into tonight. Any severe weather risk will be conditional given the low confidence of storm occurrence. However, if storms are able to develop, the primary risk would be large hail. Another system is expected to eject into the Plains Friday, bringing our next best chance at thunderstorms. Again, dry line placement will be key and POPs are favored in our eastern zones (20-40%). Global ensembles currently have this wave ejecting with a more neutral orientation. This scenario would allow some severe convective potential. Though if this would be able to come out more negative, a higher-end severe risk could be realized. Until then for now, SPC continues to carry a 15% severe probability touching our eastern counties. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1112 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The prolonged period of dry and warm southwest winds will continue through early this evening. Wind speeds will drop off by sunset with a gradual shift to the west or west-northwest, particularly at GCK and LBL. Light westerly winds will continue through the night, picking back up in speed mid-morning Wednesday. All four airports GCK, DDC, LBL, and HYS will remain west of the dryline, so VFR flight category will continue along with near-zero thunderstorm chances. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090. Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for KSZ061>063-074>077-084>087. && $$ DISCUSSION...Bennett AVIATION...Umscheid  456 FXUS63 KUNR 141642 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 1042 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... -Mild through Thursday -Dry most places outside of NW SD today through Wed -Critical fire weather conditions, mainly along and south of I90 today, and again possibly Wednesday and especially Thursday -Much colder and unsettled for the end of the week with rain and snow possible by Friday for parts of the area && .UPDATE... Issued at 956 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Current sfc analysis shows NW-SE oriented frontal boundary sagging across the CWA with temperatures ranging from the 40s across northwestern SD and northeastern WY to the upper 50s across southwestern into south central SD. Winds across the southern tier of the FA have diminished while humidities rise as temperatures cool off, ending critical fire wx conditions across the area. A few strong to marginally severe storms popped up over northwestern SD this afternoon but that activity has dissipated as upper level impulse pushes to the east of the region. Regional radar shows shower activity in western ND with CAMs indicating some showers are possible across far northwestern SD through the overnight hours. In addition to the showers, forecast soundings show a fairly shallow moist layer over northwestern SD. Thus, have painted in some light PoPs and mentions for patchy fog for far northwestern SD from now until ~09z. Upper trof pushes into the Central Plains tomorrow with the bulk of the forcing and moisture passing to the south of our CWA, though a few light showers can't be ruled out over southern SD during the day on Tuesday with diurnally driven showers over the Black Hills Tuesday afternoon. && .DISCUSSION...(This Afternoon Through Sunday) Issued at 1055 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Central Rockies upper trough will continue to shift east with another stronger trough dropping into the Pac NW. This will support warm and mainly dry weather through most of Thur. Dry SW flow is ongoing across the southern half of the FA. Rockies trough will semi-split with the northern portion supporting a few showers and isolated TS across the far NW this afternoon/evening. However, the rest of the FA will remain dry. Compact jetlet, associated enhanced bulk shear and marginal CAPE may support an isolated strong storm on the southern flank of expected convection today, with small hail and gusty winds. Cool front starts to progress east into the area tonight. The southern portion of the trough will shift east Tues, barely skirting the southeast third of the FA, with maybe a shower or two in southwest to scentral SD. Enough instability may be present over the BH to also support a few showers there with diurnal heating. Shower chances will linger into Wed across scentral SD, as the trough moves fairly slow across the Central Plains. Mild weather will continue through Thur as WAA ensues ahead of the next upper trough Wed, which will advect SE in westerly flow out of the Pac NW. This system will force a strong cold front into the region Thur, with strong CAA and wind expected. However, this trough will split, with limited precip amounts outside of perhaps northeast WY and maybe far SW SD, effectively leaving much of western SD with little to no precip. After a couple days below normal, things quickly then warm back up next week as the next trough drops into the western CONUS and WAA spreads to its east. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Wednesday) Issued At 1040 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the period. Isolated/scattered rain showers will fall from southwest into south-central SD through 15/06z as they move east/northeast. Local MVFR conditions are possible in the strongest showers. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued At 1055 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Gusty southwest winds, extremely dry air, and lack of appreciable green up will support critical fire weather conditions this afternoon mainly along and south of I90. A red flag warning remains in effect into this evening. The most critical areas will be in SW SD where RH will drop to 10 percent with winds gusting to around 45 mph in the afternoon. A cool front will drop into the area tonight with winds diminishing and RH's recovering. Mild on Tue and Wed as an upper level trough skirts south of the area. However, low RH and breezy winds may support critical fire weather conditions once again on Wed and especially Thur in the same locations. A strong cold front will move into the region Thur, with chances for rain and snow Friday, mainly across northeast WY. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ UPDATE...Wong DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC AVIATION...Helgeson FIRE WEATHER...JC  848 FXUS61 KPBZ 141644 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1244 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Forecasts for the heat and possible record breaking temperatures remained largely in line with the previous cycle. The warm layer seems to be more of a hindrance that the past forecast led on. Some evaporative cooling to erode the cap will be needed today for significant severe storms. The Slight risk is still in line for tomorrow. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Anomalously warm temperatures this week. Daily record high max and minimum temperatures will be challenged and possibly broken, especially on Wednesday. 2) Increasing daily storm chances this week with a possible multi- day MCS event. Areawide marginal Risk of severe weather today. 3) Severe risk continues Wednesday with a Slight Risk of severe weather north of I-70 and Marginal Risk between I-68 and I-70. Storm chances to continue Thursday as well. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... The ridge anchored across the Southeast and eastern Gulf continues to influence our weather through the week. At its strongest, the ridge will near 590dam (just over 2 standard deviations above normal for this time of year). This abnormally strong ridge will continue to support abnormally high temperatures (over 3 standard deviations above normal) across the region through the work week and possibly as late as Saturday. Our location on the northwestern side of the ridge will continue warm and moist southwesterly flow over the coming days. Locally, heat looks to peak on Wednesday, with 500mb heights hitting 580dam over the city and widespread 850mb temperatures between 14-16C, suggesting that unhindered mixing would see temperatures surge into at least the middle 80s. Probabilities of high temperatures over 80 degrees remain near and over 60% for areas south of I-80 each day from Tuesday- Thursday and then again on Saturday. Friday looks like heating may be interrupted by a rain-laden cold front pushing through the region. This could finally help shake up the pattern before models seem to indicate another Low moving through the Great Lakes early this weekend. Record high max and min temperatures look like they will be tied or set at several sites across our region, especially on Wednesday and Thursday. Daily rain chances look to be the only thing possibly keeping a lid on record challenging runaway heating. These chances are highest north, closer to the periphery of the ridge, and thus probabilities of record setting heat generally decrease from south to north. Each site features at least one day with a >40% chance to set a new record high and PHD (shortest climate record) features 3 days with >70% chance. Concurrently, each site also features at least 2 days with >50% chance of setting new record high minimum temperatures and PIT features 5 straight days with >65% chance of doing so. PIT features several "low hanging fruit" in this category with 3 such daily high minimum temperatures in the 50s. Our forecast for Wednesday lows may break the old record of 58 by a whopping 8 degrees. Minor heat risk continues areawide today through Thursday before retracting some on Friday. Heat impacts will primarily be felt by those who are extremely sensitive to heat and those without cooling/hydration. Speckled moderate risk areas continue to crop up Wednesday and Saturday and are expanding in area, mainly in the Ohio and Mon river valleys. KEY MESSAGE 2... We are at the beginning of what looks like it could be a multi- day MCS event across the Great Lakes and into our region. This pattern owing to our anomalously strong ridge feels much more like a June setup than an April one. Warm and moist southwesterly flow will set the table each afternoon for storms to fire along decaying or residual boundaries left over from the previous nights convection and renewed convection cresting the top of the ridge could press into the forecast area overnight starting the whole process again. Todays convection is having a difficult time eroding the warm layer. As seen on the 12Z southing, strong capping was present at 700MB and below that. Thus storms are having a difficult time of developing and getting some depth. Early showers and thunderstorms have likely weaken the cap a bit. With afternoon heating, it will remain to be seen if deeper convection is realized as at this time, CAMs are struggling to develop anything now. Thus, it is likely that the development this afternoon will be subsevere. Certainly, a 40 mph gust can't be ruled out with an overperforming strong storm. Overnight, it looks likely that we decouple in a rapidly worsening environment. Several CAMs depict one or more bowing segments moving across southern MI towards us late tonight. These segments tend to move quicker than modeling suggests but would still likely not enter the region until after 2am or so. By this time it looks unlikely but still possible to see a damaging wind threat from these storms. KEY MESSAGE 3... The ridging and shortwave pattern and thus multi-day MCS event continues into Wednesday. Wednesday sees more impressive heating and increasing moisture advection in continued southwesterly flow. As such, model soundings feature well over 2000 J/kg of CAPE across much of the region, very impressive for our region in April. This comes hand in hand with a 5-10kt increase in shear when compared to Tuesday. These elements could allow for isolated to scattered super cellular structures to develop across the region or for a quick reinvigoration of any ongoing MCS/MCV left over from Tuesday night. Multi-day MCS propagation forecasting is very low confidence, with Wednesday's forecast highly dependent on Tuesday night. Storms on Wednesday look like they could bring all severe hazards, with increasing low-level moisture lowering LCLs and more robust CAPE at the SFC and in the -20 to -30C range. SPC has introduced a Marginal Risk to our region north of the Mason- Dixon Line and a Slight Risk north of I-70 on Wednesday. Timing for this seems to point more toward the 16Z to 20Z timeframe with additional convection after 23Z. Both time periods currently have a decent potential for development of severe storms. Storms look likely to continue on Thursday, but the pattern breaks down a little as a more meaningful SFC low moves through the Great Lakes. This could end the multi-day MCS event but could bring its own renewed chance for storms along the draping cold front. && .AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR with a few isolated showers are expected through 15z, though a quick cu development within the MVFR levels around KBVI/KFKL/KDUJ can't be ruled out. Hi-res modeling shows greater consensus on a broken line of showers and thunderstorms dropping southeast through the area between 16z-23z. The lack of higher instability (mean values likely to be less than 1000 J/kg with its passage) kept TAF mention as lighter rain/restrictions in a thunderstorms with minimal gustiness. However, small sections could be strong enough to create MVFR cigs/IFR visibilities in heavier rain along with a gusty wind out of the NW (or whichever angle the line develops). Generally VFR with clearing post-convective cloud decks is expected by 00z and lasting through the end of the TAF period. Northwest PA near FKL/DUJ may see MVFR cigs develop due to moisture convergence amid moist return flow; additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms may also reach these locations by 12z from weakening clusters exiting the Great Lakes area. Outlook... The Upper Ohio River Valley will remain positioned near the upper ridge axis throughout the week and make it liable for multiple shortwave crossing to foster periodic showers/thunderstorms and precip-driven restrictions. A pattern shift is unlikely to occur until late Sunday into Monday before confidence becomes high again on a prolonged period of dry, VFR weather. && .CLIMATE... See below for record max highs and max lows this week: Thursday, April 15th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 86F (1883) 64F (1896) Wheeling, WV: 87F (1941) 60F (2014) Morgantown, WV: 86F (2018) 66F (2014) New Philadelphia, OH: 82F (2023) 56F (2006) Zanesville, OH: 87F (1941) 60F (1899) DuBois, PA: 86F (2023) 60F (2014) Wednesday, April 16th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 85F (1883) 61F (1967) Wheeling, WV: 82F (2010) 59F (2002) Morgantown, WV: 86F (1993) 65F (1967) New Philadelphia, OH: 82F (2010) 58F (2023) Zanesville, OH: 85F (1941) 61F (1972) DuBois, PA: 79F (2003) 56F (2002) Thursday, April 17th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 86F (2002) 63F (2017) Wheeling, WV: 86F (1945) 64F (2002) Morgantown, WV: 88F (2002) 64F (2012) New Philadelphia, OH: 85F (2002) 62F (2017) Zanesville, OH: 86F (2002) 65F (1912) DuBois, PA: 82F (2012) 59F (1976) Friday, April 18th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 87F (1896) 63F (1896) Wheeling, WV: 84F (2002) 64F (2002) Morgantown, WV: 89F (1976) 64F (1960) New Philadelphia, OH: 84F (2002) 60F (1982) Zanesville, OH: 88F (1896) 66F (1896) DuBois, PA: 83F (2002) 60F (2002) Saturday, April 19th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 90F (1896) 64F (1896) Wheeling, WV: 85F (2025) 63F (2002) Morgantown, WV: 92F (1976) 64F (2013) New Philadelphia, OH: 86F (1976) 57F (2019) Zanesville, OH: 92F (1896) 66F (1896) DuBois, PA: 87F (1976) 61F (2002) && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Shallenberger/AK AVIATION...Frazier  228 FXUS63 KIWX 141650 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 1250 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated storms are expected this afternoon, especially along the US 24 corridor in Indiana. This evening and overnight, additional severe thunderstorms are expected. All hazards are possible. - Locally heavy rainfall is possible tonight into Wednesday which may result in some renewed areal and river flooding concerns. - Above normal temperatures will continue into this first part of weekend before a cold front brings below normal temperatures. && .UPDATE... Issued at 821 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Quick update to the grids to increase pops this morning based on current radar trends. The outflow boundary that was responsible for the uptick in overnight showers/storms has accelerated south, ending the threat of convection with that feature for the time being. An area of showers and storms was working through NE IL into NW Indiana with some new development ahead of it. It still remains uncertain how far east this will make it before weakening. No severe threat is expected with this activity, with locally heavy rain and maybe some gusty winds the main concern. Pops are highest in the west with a decreasing trend eastward with everything done by 18Z (if not before). Most likely the afternoon and early evening hours will be precip free as it will take time to destabilize once again. The outflow boundary is likely to modulate back north and could be a focus for some isolated storms. However, the greatest concerns still exist later this evening into the overnight hours with some signals indicating a somewhat increased threat for damaging winds as the upstream convection races east. Something to sort out in the afternoon package. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 322 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A complicated forecast over the next 72 hours with several rounds of convection possible. Severe weather is possible each day through Thursday, with greatest confidence in scattered severe storms tonight. A convective complex is ongoing this morning across Wisconsin to the Lake Michigan vicinity with an associated outflow boundary extending from northeast Iowa to far southeast Wisconsin. This convective system has shown signs of both downwind propagation (eastward across east central Wisconsin) and upwind propagation (southeastward across south central Wisconsin). A strong low level jet feeding into this boundary should help sustain additional convection and southeast push of the outflow to southern Lake Michigan this morning. The tendency over next few hours may be for increasing trend in stronger cores to be displaced further behind outflow boundary due to some stronger downstream MLCIN across the southern Great Lakes. May need to watch for potential of isolated severe gust across primarily southern Lower Michigan this morning where more of a forward propagation may be favored, but a higher confidence potential does exist across NW IN/southern Lower MI for some 40+ mph wind gusts this morning. There have been some instances of small scale circulations developing at leading edge of the line across SE Wisconsin in QLCS type setup. If forward propagating system can reach southern Lower Michigan this morning cannot completely rule out similar evolution where westerly 30-35 knot 0-3 km shear vector has a more favorable orientation, but more limited instability with southward extent and more likely more parallel orientation of shear vectors to line through time may limit this potential. Another thing to monitor for today could be possibility of some small scale convectively enhanced short wave kicking northeast out of eastern Missouri this morning which could interact with the southward dropping outflow boundary across northeast or east central Illinois. Timing of this interaction would probably be late morning/midday period in unfavorable timing in terms of peak diurnal instability, but may need to watch for some uptick in convection across far west/southwest late morning given steep mid level lapse rates in place. Overall forecast thinking has not changed greatly for the primary severe weather threat period tonight. The outflow boundary will likely stall from NE Illinois into portions of IWX forecast area this morning, with instability recovery likely by late afternoon as this instability gradient is advected back northward via stronger low/mid level flow associated with convectively enhanced short waves to the southwest. Some isolated stronger storms are possible in vicinity of this instability gradient as it lifts north, but the possibility exists for weak CIN to hold. By this evening low level flow will back some to the southwest in response to a progressive wave across working across the Upper Midwest. This should yield a pocket of strong 925-850 mb moisture convergence from eastern IA into southern WI this evening which looks prime for convection initiation. Some lower confidence still persists in how convection will evolve tonight, whether a coherent cold pool and southeast propagating convective system occurs, or if storms remain just slightly elevated north of the composite boundary. Supercell wind profiles will likely be in place again by this evening as a stronger mid level jet lifts across northeast IL late afternoon with a wind/hail threat. Best combination of shear/instability still looks possible across NW IN/SW Lower MI where all severe hazards would appear more likely, although helicity profiles more favorable for tornadoes may be displaced west across northern IL where shear may be augmented by the low/mid level jet. As mentioned, still uncertainty with details in convective mode tonight, but overall key themes from previous forecast remain intact. Some heavy rain potential may materialize later tonight as potential outflow with southern Great Lakes storms could become more favorably oriented parallel to veering low level westerly flow. It is difficult to get into too much detail regarding severe potential for Wed/Thu as this be highly dependent on previous day's convective evolution and hard to resolve smaller individual smaller scale waves in this pattern. This situation is a complex one as stubbornness of longwave ridging to break down across eastern CONUS results in multiple upstream short waves shearing out as they encounter this ridge, and also an added increased susceptibility to convectively enhanced short waves from southern Plains/lower MS Valley. Instability profiles will likely be more limited for Wednesday and Thursday, although at least Wednesday should still feature respectable wind shear profiles that could allow for at least an isolated severe threat. Some small increase in instability is possible Thursday as upper ridge finally appears to be broken down by stronger mid level wave, but shear profiles may become a bit more marginal by this time. The extended period of above normal temperatures will continue through the first part of the weekend. Medium range guidance is starting to come into a little better agreement in timing frontal passage with next more substantial longwave trough for first part of the weekend. Much too early for details, but some strong/severe threat could accompany frontal convection Saturday depending on timing. May also need to watch for periods of strong synoptic winds this weekend in both pre-frontal and post-frontal environments. Cooler, below normal temperatures should build in for second half of weekend into next Monday, but residence time of this cooler air looks to be limited. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1243 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 An outflow boundary, depicted on satellite as the interface of mid- level cirrus and sprouting fair-weather cumulus, will be the focus for isolated severe thunderstorms this afternoon. These storms may drift into KFWA near 00z. Not enough confidence in this scenario to move beyond PROB30. Additional TSRA, likely in a weakening state, is anticipated later in the period as a line storms drops southeast from MI. MVFR ceilings may linger beyond daybreak Wednesday. At KSBN, greater confidence in the timing of TSRA there which does pose a gusty wind threat. This will need to be monitored. Additional showers and perhaps a thunderstorm are possible near daybreak Wednesday as activity departs Illinois. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...Fisher DISCUSSION...Marsili AVIATION...Brown  750 FXUS64 KTSA 141651 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1151 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1146 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - A window for higher-end severe weather potential exists today into Wednesday. - Warm, humid, and breezy southerly flow continues for much of the week. Most days will have at least a low chance of precipitation. - Another chance of showers and thunderstorms, some potentially severe, is expected during the day Friday to Saturday before cooler air arrives behind a cold front. && .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight ) Issued at 1146 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Warm and humid southerly flow remains in place across the area. Southerly winds will continue to gust to 25-35 mph today. High temperatures will remain well above normal (in the 80s). As upper level winds/lift from a positively tilted trough spread across the dry line later today, thunderstorms are expected to develop over central Oklahoma. These storms will then move northeast into the area. Initial storm formation will probably be in the late afternoon, moving into the forecast area during the evening. Most CAMs quickly show upscale growth into a line, or perhaps a few lines. This implies that an initial severe hail dominant threat will shift to wind dominant with time. This makes sense given the very large instability and favorable dynamics for robust cold pool development. A couple of tornados are also possible, particularly early on before cold pools become mature. Of course, if storms remain discrete for longer or into the evening when the LLJ ramps up, the tornado threat could end up higher than it currently appears. With continued forcing along the dry line, additional rounds of showers and storms are possible overnight. These storms may also be severe, but the threat will generally decline with time as well as the further east you go. Locally heavy rain may also occur. For these later rounds, the threat may start to sag south and east, but generally still in the northwest half of the forecast area. Low temperatures overnight will be in the 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Tuesday) Issued at 1146 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Warm and humid southerly flow will persist Wednesday, with the best lift from an approaching trough moving overhead. CAM guidance is fairly messy on Wednesday with multiple rounds of weaker storms developing through the day across the forecast area. The CAMS finally develop stronger storms in the afternoon and evening hours. It storms are too widespread and frequent earlier during the day, it could suppress severe weather in the evening. With that said, ample moisture, shear, and instability are all present. The potential is certainly there for severe weather even if failure modes also exist. Most likely, hail and wind will be the dominant threats, but like today, an couple of tornados remain possible as well. Upper level forcing will move east on Thursday with a reprieve from the stormy conditions. Highs will reach the mid 80s with humid and breezy conditions remaining in place. A strong cold front will push through the area Friday night into Saturday. The airmass will be quite moist and unstable. Hodographs look to be long and mostly straight. Given that the shear vector will be roughly parallel to the frontal forcing, storms should consolidate into lines, with damaging wind being the primary hazard. But since this is a few days away, this is just speculation for now. Much cooler and drier conditions are expected Sunday into early next week behind the front. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 625 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 MVFR cigs should scatter out or become VFR this afternoon. The latest CAM guidance suggests NE OK, and especially KBVO, stands the best chance for storms through tonight. Used TEMPO at KBVO and PROB30s at the other NE OK sites. Also used some PROB30 mention over in far NW AR toward Wed morning with some hints of showers or isolated storms there. MVFR cigs are expected to return to some sites toward the tail end of this forecast. Lacy && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 84 65 78 61 / 30 80 70 70 FSM 83 67 80 64 / 20 60 50 90 MLC 81 66 77 64 / 20 70 70 70 BVO 85 64 79 56 / 40 80 70 70 FYV 81 63 76 61 / 20 60 70 90 BYV 83 65 76 61 / 20 60 60 90 MKO 82 64 76 62 / 30 70 70 80 MIO 83 64 76 60 / 30 80 70 80 F10 83 65 77 62 / 30 70 70 70 HHW 81 65 78 64 / 20 40 60 70 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...06 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...30  331 FXUS63 KDTX 141655 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1255 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Stretch of warm conditions throughout the work week with daytime temperatures in the 70s each day for most locations. - Potential exists for thunderstorms to develop tonight, mainly between 8 pm and 3 am. Storms may become severe, capable of producing wind gusts to 60 mph, large hail and isolated tornadoes. - There is a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms Wednesday and still another round of storms possible Thursday. - Each episode of storms brings the possibility for locally heavy rainfall. A Flood Watch is in effect for all areas tonight through Thursday night. && .AVIATION... Broad region of subsidence entrenched within a thicker high based cloud will maintain VFR conditions with limited convective potential through early this evening. Late day winds holding from the west to southwest, with some intervals of gustiness into the 25 knot range. Thunderstorm initiation and expansion expected upstream again early tonight. This activity will shift into lower Michigan overnight, most likely within the 03z to 08z window for an arrival locally. Overall scale and magnitude still carries some uncertainty, but enough confidence in tsra occurrence to highlight at all locations. Forecast will allow for dry conditions to emerge within the immediate wake for the latter half of the morning, but some renewed expansion in showers and thunderstorms will be possible depending on convective evolves tonight. DTW/D21 Convection...Dry conditions favored into the evening hours. Highest likelihood for thunderstorms will exist between 04z and 09z tonight. .DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Low for ceilings aob 5000 ft through this evening. High tonight. Low again Wednesday morning. * Medium for thunderstorms tonight between 04z and 09z. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 306 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 DISCUSSION... The well advertised, several day long, active stretch of weather is underway. The warm front has become established across northern MI with the broad surface low back over Iowa. The most recent mid level wave ejecting from the longwave trough over the western conus pairing with a strong low level jet has resulted in an expansive line of convection spanning from northern MI back into southern MN early this morning. The best instability and shear remain to the west but as the jet strengthens and pushes east, it will bring increasing levels of shear and instability into southern MI. Forecast starts with Severe Thunderstorm Watch #107 across Mid MI to account for the current upstream activity tracking through the region overnight. This will mostly be for a hail and wind threat. Last of the overnight convection should be east of the area for the most part by 12Z this morning leaving us in a bit of a lull through the early part of the day. Many of the hires models still show hints of precip along the warm front at times this afternoon which wouldn't be out of the question with the strength of warm air advection and wealth of instability (2k J/kg) present, but we'll lack stronger upper level forcing until later this afternoon and evening when the next mid level shortwave and convectively driven surface low ripple along the front through southern MI. SPC continues to have the whole area in a Slight Risk of severe storms which looks to target the 00-06Z window this evening into tonight. With similar overall setup, forcing, low level jet, moisture quality, CAPE, 40 knots of shear, and steep mid level lapse rates, etc to what is going on in the Midwest and Great Lakes tonight, see no reason this risk should change moving forward. Risks will be large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. Even after the initial convective cluster rolls through, the upper level trough will drift over the Midwest by late Tuesday night which will steer additional mid level energy across the area with the stall front still draped across Mid MI. This keeps southern MI in a Marginal Risk for additional severe weather on Wednesday. Additionally, a growing threat will be for possible flooding. With PWATs up around 1.25 inches or more through the period, and surface dewpoints in the 60s, there will be ample moisture for these storms to use. QPF during the period of time from Tuesday night through Wednesday night is around 1.5 inches across the whole CWA. With the potential for convection training over the same locations, some local probabilistic guidance shows the potential for 2 to 4 inches of rainfall during this time. This combined with previous ground soaking rain over the last week and several rivers already running high could lead to flooding concerns. WPC has a portion of the area in a Slight Risk on Tuesday and Marginal Risk on Wednesday. Upper level trough will cross the area on Thursday providing yet another chance for storms. Mild conditions continue on Friday but we should get a break from precip with increasing heights aloft and surface ridging sliding through. This looks to be a short lived break though as the next deep trough is already working east across the Plains which will be additional precip chances through the weekend. MARINE... Showers and thunderstorms exit east this morning in favor of drier weather by afternoon. Southwest flow reemerges across the south with a gradual veering trend in wind direction to the north as a warm front settles near Saginaw Bay. This front will be the focus for another round of showers and thunderstorms to develop late this evening and overnight. Some of these storms may be strong to severe, capable of large hail, heavy rain, and wind gusts over 34 knots. This unsettled pattern persist into the mid-week period. Wind and wave concerns will mainly be tied to thunderstorm activity. HYDROLOGY... An active pattern will bring periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms tonight through Thursday. Each episode brings the possibility for locally heavy rainfall, particularly where focused areas of thunderstorms develop. Rainfall amounts of half an inch to an inch will be possible for a round of rain tonight. Additional rainfall between a half and one and a half inches currently forecast to fall between Wednesday and Thursday. While widespread flooding is not expected, some minor flooding of low lying, poor drainage and urban areas along with rises on area rivers are possible. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through late Thursday night for MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ AVIATION.....MR DISCUSSION...DRK MARINE.......MV HYDROLOGY....DRK You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.  305 FXUS65 KRIW 141659 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 1059 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light snow shower chances (20%) exist through 6PM MDT across the western mountains, the Bighorns, and Casper Mountain. A light drizzle cannot be ruled out in Casper. - A potent winter storm is forecast to bring widespread precipitation, wind, and freezing temperatures to the entire area beginning late Wednesday until Friday evening. Confidence in measurable snowfall continues to increase for low elevations. - There is high (90% +) confidence in a hard freeze (28 degrees or below) across low elevations Friday morning and Saturday morning, with the potential for widespread lows in the teens on Saturday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 145 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Finally a more active pattern across Wyoming trying to bring precipitation! The latest system is a trough ejecting into the central Plains from the Four Corners region. This system is set a little too far south to bring a significant amount of precip, but still enough energy to produce precip for areas of Casper Mountain, the Bighorns, and higher elevations of the Tetons. But this does set the table for a potent late winter storm diving out of the PacNW into the northern Rockies. This system starts to spread precip into the NW mountains during the day Wednesday before slowly moving east Thursday and Friday. The system will be accompanied by ample moisture, so the potential for meaningful accumulations is improving. The system will also be accompanied by a strong push of colder air, so most precip will be snowfall, especially Thursday night into Friday. This includes most of the lower elevations as well, with the current forecast totals of 2 to 5 inches. Winter Storm Watches have been posted for the northwestern Mountains and YNP for this system, and may need to be expanded is the snow forecast increases with later updates. The other concern with this next system is the significant cold air push coming with and behind the next system. Cold temperatures will arrive during the day Thursday, with lows Thursday night in the low to mid 20s east of the Divide and in the teens west of the Divide. The main core of the cold air then settles in on Friday, with the core of the cold air setting in Friday night. Probabilities of temperatures falling below 28 degrees are high (>90%), with current forecast lows reaching the teens. The complicating factor will be how quickly cloud cover clears out behind the weather system, allowing for radiational cooling. If clouds hold longer, these teens would likely not be achieved. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1057 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail across nearly all terminals through much of the TAF period. The one exception to this currently is KJAC where some linger low level clouds persist. Conditions should continue to improve shortly after the start of the period with VFR conditions likely to return. A shower or two cannot be ruled out around 21Z Tuesday nearby KJAC. Due to low confidence in direct impacts at the terminal only a VCSH group has been added. Winds gradually increase this afternoon with nearly all terminals seeing winds of 15 to 25 knots. These winds should dissipate shortly after sunset with light winds around 5 to 10 knots persisting through the overnight. A nearing disturbance will start to usher in more cloud coverage for Wednesday. Winds will begin to increase near the end of the TAF period mainly across northern and western terminals. Mountain obscuration will linger mainly across western mountain ranges as low clouds continue to burn through the early afternoon with improvement expected by the mid afternoon. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday evening through late Thursday night for WYZ001-002-012. && $$ DISCUSSION...Straub AVIATION...Dziewaltowski