806 FXUS63 KPAH 141700 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1200 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - More record/near record warmth is forecast Wednesday and Friday. - Rainfall for Wednesday night-Thursday is a near certainty (90+%) with storm total averages from 0.25-0.75" expected. A strong to potentially severe storm cannot be ruled out. - More rainfall Friday night-Saturday is likely (70+%) with storm total averages from 0.25-0.50" expected. A strong to potentially severe storm cannot be ruled out. - Temperatures will cool to seasonal mid April norms to begin the new week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1200 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Balmy warmth more typical of the Gulf Coast this time of year continues. Record to near record highs in the mid 80s are anticipated again tmrw, here are the existing records: Wednesday PAH 88 (1977) EVV 86 (2024) CGI 87 (1992) POF 88 (1936) MDH 87 (2024) Weak ripples in the flow move in/overtop the area late Wednesday night-Thursday. The NBM is up to near certainty pops for the event, and with increasing shear, SPC now outlooks a MRGNL risk SVR for Thursday afternoon-evening. That's going to be highly dependent on our ability to destabilize then, after the morning bout of rain/denser associated cloud. The better chance looks shifted eastward, but it cannot be ruled out in whole here either. After convective recovery, Friday looks to be the warmest day yet. The NBM has consistently forecast record high temps in the upper 80s. If we over-achieve just a little, we can potentially yield our (PAH) earliest 90F high temperature on record; the LREF Grand Ensemble suggests the chance that 90F will be reached is about 10%. Here are Friday's record highs and our earliest recorded 90F highs: FridayEarliest 90F High PAH 87 (1977) April 21, 1987 (90F) EVV 88 (1977) April 16, 1987 (90F) CGI 86 (1977) April 20, 1987 (90F) POF 89 (1977) March 24, 1929 (92F) MDH 89 (1977) March 23, 1910 (93F) The system makes robust passage Saturday with our next best chance of rain likely (70+%) to include potential for strong- severe storms and additional storm total averages of 0.25-0.50" rainfall. After fropa, we cool back to more seasonal mid April highs/lows to start out the new week. Cumulative average storm total rainfall for the two main rounds of the week adds up to 0.50-1.25". The NBM extended probabilities suggest a 30-50% chance that total exceeds 1", which if it is realized, would offer some needed relief for our drought parched grounds. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1200 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Breezy south to southwest winds peak with gusts during the daylight hours both today-tmrw. SCT-BKN bases, mainly VFR, will hold thru the package in the warm sector environ. Pcpn chances are small enough to mostly preclude from mention, but PROB30s do introduce over the back half of the package at KMVN. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$  903 FXUS62 KMFL 141703 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 103 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 102 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Reduced visibilities and air quality will be possible across portions of the Naples metro due to smoke from the Newman Fire. - Dangerous rip currents will continue at all east coast beaches of South Florida through at least Wednesday evening. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 125 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The deep-layer ridging pattern continues to maintain its strength and dominance through the middle of this week. With a drier air mass also remaining in place, there are no changes from the last couple of days in terms as we will see ongoing tranquil weather across the region. Only slight changes will be slowly rising temperatures each day and winds finally weakening as the pressure gradient begins to relax. Daytime high temperatures will continue to reach the low 80s for the east coast metro and upper 80s to near 90 for the Gulf coast region as the easterly regime favors warmer temps for the Gulf region during the day and cooler at night. One other item to monitor is the active Newman Wildfire in Collier County. The quiet weather pattern and breezy winds will allow for smoke to continue to disperse rather quickly to the point where it's generally uncontrollable. The easterly winds will push smoke towards the Gulf shore and other areas around there. As a result of this, local air quality issues are likely and can impact sensitive groups as firefighters continue to work on mitigating the fire. Additionally, smoke can contribute to lower visibilities on roadways and making driving unsafe in certain areas. Caution is advised when driving on the roadways until the fire is controlled, and vulnerable populations should consider limiting time outdoors. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 125 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Long range ensembles show a shortwave trough advecting across the central U.S. for the end of this week and the shortwave attempts to break down the deep-layer ridge over the Southeast U.S. However, with the ridge being highly amplified, it will not break down entirely and rather just 'flatten' out to an extent. As the shortwave trough then curves off northwards, upper level ridging re- amplifies in conjunction with a deep-layer trough forming over the Great Lakes region this weekend. This trough is expected to be strong enough to the point where it forces a frontal boundary and some moisture into northern Florida and weakens the ridging pattern more substantially. However, ensembles still keep 500mb heights around the 75th percentile for this date range (April 18-20), hinting that the high pressure has a good chance to hold onto its control of the local weather. If this trend holds firm, mostly dry weather would be expected to continue minus some isolated shower activity occurring as a result of increased daytime high temperatures under the ridge pattern and an increase in moisture availability. As the frontal boundary washes out after it enters northern Florida, PWATs may rise back to climatological norms over the weekend and into next week (1.2-1.4") which can support some weak shower activity even under a high pressure pattern, particularly as a result of sea breeze circulations. Overall, most ensemble members and clusters at this time favor a drier solution for this weekend and into early next week, and even the wetter solutions do not favor a highly active period with total QPF for each 24-hour period being below 0.5". As a result, the latest forecast keeps conditions predominantly dry with only slight chances for some shower activity at the beginning of next week. High temperatures will continue to rise each day through the end of the week and into this weekend underneath this large ridging pattern as we see highs rise to the mid to upper 80s along the east coast metro, upper 80s to low 90s for the Gulf coast, and low to mid 90s over the interior by Friday and continuing into the weekend. Overnight lows are expected to range each night from the low 60s for the Gulf coast, interior, and lake regions to the upper 60s and low 70s for the east coast metro. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 102 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR prevails at all terminals during the next 24 hours as high pressure remains in control of the area. Winds remain gusty from the ENE through 00-01Z, then remaining moderate overnight. Another round of ENE breezy periods is expected after 15-16Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 125 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Winds decrease back to a moderate breeze beginning today, which is expected to last into the end of the week. Cautionary conditions are still expected with winds in the range of 15-20 kts, but advisory criteria is expected to be avoided. Seas of 4-6 feet expected in the local Atlantic waters and 2 feet or less in the Gulf waters. && .BEACHES... Issued at 125 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A high risk for rip currents continues through the middle of this week and may persist into the end of the week as brisk onshore flow continues. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 68 80 69 82 / 0 0 0 0 West Kendall 65 83 65 84 / 0 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 67 82 69 84 / 0 0 0 0 Homestead 68 81 69 83 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 69 79 70 81 / 0 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 68 80 69 81 / 0 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 69 83 70 85 / 0 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 67 80 68 81 / 0 0 0 0 Boca Raton 68 80 69 81 / 0 0 0 0 Naples 64 85 65 86 / 0 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for FLZ168-172- 173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Redman LONG TERM....Redman AVIATION...17  878 FXUS62 KRAH 141705 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 105 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 104 PM Tuesday... * Updated Aviation Discussion && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 144 AM Tuesday... 1) Dry fuels combined with lower humidity and near record heat will promote fire weather concerns through the end of the week. 2) A highly anomalous mid-level ridge will persist over the southeastern United States through late week, supporting an early- season heat wave with temperatures 15–20F or more above climatology. 3) Late-weekend pattern transition possible with low-end rain chances on Sunday with fropa...followed by cooler temps. && .DISCUSSION... As of 144 AM Tuesday... KEY MESSAGE 1... Dry fuels combined with lower humidity and near record heat will promote fire weather concerns through the end of the week. No changes to the week as far as highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and no rainfall through Saturday. The NC Forest Service has requested additional messaging along with their current state-wide burn ban. We issued an Increased Fire Danger Statement (IFD) the western Piedmont/Sandhills through 800 PM today. More statements will be needed Wednesday and beyond. KEY MESSAGE 2... A highly anomalous mid-level ridge will persist over the southeastern United States through late week, supporting an early-season heat wave with temperatures 15–20F or more above climatology. A highly anomalous mid-level ridge will persist over the southeastern United States through late week, supporting record or near-record heat across central North Carolina. Both the GFS and ECMWF deterministic and ensemble guidance remain in strong agreement depicting a robust 500-mb ridge centered over the Southeast and Mid- Atlantic. During this period, H8 temps are progged in the 15-17C range along with deep-layer thickness values approaching summer-like magnitudes. As a result, high temps will reach the upper 80s to lower 90s basically Wednesday through Friday, with the typically warmer locations southeast of RDU possibly seeing mid 90s. These values are 20F degrees or more above mid-April normals. Hazards associated with this heat may include early-season heat stress (especially vulnerable populations) due to limited acclimatization. See the climate section below for more details about the records that may be threatened with this heat wave. Key message 3...Late-weekend pattern transition possible with low- end rain chances on Sunday with fropa...followed by cooler temps. The ridge will gradually weaken and shift east over the weekend as a trough advances from the Plains. A cold frontal passage is expected on Sunday which may result in low-end rain chances. Behind the front, temps will trend closer to seasonal normals (low-mid 70s) early next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... As of 104 PM Tuesday... VFR conditions will persist through the 24 hr TAF period. Sswly sfc flow will remain light this afternoon, with a few gusts of up to 20 kts possible at KFAY/KRWI this afternoon. Similar light sswly sfc flow is expected Wednesday. Outlook: Sub-tropical high pressure will favor warm, dry, and VFR conditions in cntl NC through Sat. A cold front will bring a low-end chance of showers to central NC on Sunday. && .CLIMATE... All-Time Records for April KGSO: 95 on 4/28/1915 KRDU: 95 on 4/23/1980 and 4/28/1896 KFAY: 96 on 4/12/1930 Record High Temperatures: April 14: KGSO: 90/1922 KRDU: 91/1941 KFAY: 93/1922 April 15: KGSO: 90/2006 KRDU: 92/1941 KFAY: 95/2006 April 16: KGSO: 88/2002 KRDU: 92/1941 KFAY: 94/2006 April 17: KGSO: 90/1967 KRDU: 93/1896 KFAY: 92/1941 April 18: KGSO: 90/1976 KRDU: 95/1896 KFAY: 93/1941 Record High Minimum Temperatures: April 15: KGSO: 65/2006 KRDU: 64/1993 April 16: KGSO: 66/2006 KRDU: 64/1912 KFAY: 69/1934 April 17: KGSO: 63/2002 KRDU: 67/1896 KFAY: 66/1921 April 18: KGSO: 66/1909 KRDU: 63/1941 KFAY: 67/2002 April 19: KRDU: 67/1896 KFAY: 67/2002 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Badgett/NP AVIATION...Luchetti/Badgett CLIMATE...RAH  511 FXUS63 KEAX 141705 AAA AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO Issued by National Weather Service Paducah KY 1205 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Active weather pattern continues with multiple chances for strong to severe thunderstorms, specifically Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday. * Warm temperatures (upper 70s to low/mid 80s) are expected to persist through the work week, with cooler and drier conditions expected this weekend. && DISCUSSION... Issued at 412 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Conditions currently much quieter than just a few hours ago. Remnant activity from this evening continues to lift NE through far NE Missouri and into far SE Iowa and west-central Illinois, including additional Severe Thunderstorm Warnings. Synoptic scale conditions favoring active weather remain entrenched across the region. Western CONUS trough has begun to move into Intermountain West, keeping deep SW flow over the central CONUS. This eastward movement of the larger trough and an expected leading piece of shortwave energy will yield another round of Lee Cyclogenesis and an elongated surface low building into and moving across northern Kansas and southern Nebraska. This more southerly placement vs yesterday/Monday will push the dry line closer to and even across portions of the CWA. Hi- res/CAM guidance of late has consistently built/pushed this dry line into SW Iowa by the mid-afternoon and angled back to the SW across NW Missouri, NE Kansas and onward SW. More on this in just a second. The open warm sector will initially be robustly capped once again, but ongoing WAA remains poised to yield highs a handful of degrees warmer today than yesterday, and coupled with diurnal mixing will yield a notably weaker/weak cap by mid-late afternoon. But... we still remain notably lackluster in the synoptic or mesoscale lift depictions. So, back to the dry line. Consistency is also seen in a lack of initiation along the dry line in IA/MO/most of KS with the forecast orientation largely parallel to surface/low level flow. This is notably different in far S Kansas and N Oklahoma where robust convergence into the dry line is anticipated. This "should" be the initiation genesis region, and activity lifting NE toward the forecast area through the late afternoon and evening. As has been noted in previous discussions, this would likely yield a multi- cellular/cluster or linear storm mode for the area. Given what transpired yesterday evening, will certainly note that if we are able to initially convect closer to home or if discrete cells remain, the environment is in many ways similar. Robust CAPE (>2000- 2500 J/kg), supportive deep shear (>35-40 kts 0-6km), and very high near-surface "streamwiseness" noted in hodographs. Regardless, very large hail and damaging winds are the primary concern, with tornadic potential possible with any supercellular structure (though noted LCLs are a bit high). Timing for this would be late afternoon (if we convect closer to home) to evening/night (the more likely KS/OK initial storms moving NE into area). The dry line position will largely determine the N/NW extent of severe threat, which may be near the KC Metro. Sagging frontal boundary catching the dry line and/or LLJ increasing too looks to initiate some more elevated convection, but would generally be in a much less supportive environment by this time (evening/overnight) for strong/severe over NW parts of the CWA. Main things to watch for through the day will be dry line evolution (how far east?) and orientation (areas of greater low level convergence close to home?). SPC New Day 1 Slight Risk remains in place for the area with noted Sig 1 hatching for Hail. Also note Sig 1 hatching for Tornado flirts with far SW forecasts area, noting the best area for discrete storms/supercells. Additional rounds of less potent showers/storms are generally depicted within hi-res/CAM guidance through the overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. A good amount of uncertainty in how this transpires given reliance and upstream convection evolution. For the most part, the greatest ramifications are for how the environment might recover or struggle to recover Wednesday. However, the strong low level flow may limit the bottom end. If we see more sunshine/recovery than cloud cover, another round of very robust convection/storms may be possible. As of now, guidance preference is to initiate along the dry line/cool front hybrid that again may be in the vicinity of the KC Metro and in a NE to SW orientation. Much uncertainty here though, so we shall see how the environment evolves. SPD Day 2 Slight with no noted Sig 1 (or other) hatching into the area. A brief reprieve Thursday as the open wave/trough kicks east, but not really cooler, which helps the area quickly rebound for yet another round of strong to severe weather potential Friday. Of note here, the thermodynamic and kinematic setup is quite impressive in various synoptic guidance. This as another western CONUS trough begins to move out of the Intermountain West and into the Plains. As it does so, takes on a mature/negative tilt orientation, helping yield some of the impressive kinematics. Devil is in the details in how the attendant surface low, general low level features, and timing evolves, so suffice it to say that Friday is absolutely a day/evening to pay attention to. This is also well reflected with the SPC Day 4 bump up to 30% (Enhanced equivalent) over portions of the area. Trough and surface low pivots through Friday night, leaving in its wake notably cooler (more seasonable) and quieter conditions for at least the weekend and early next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1205 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Residual scattered cloud deck at 2500-3000 ft should mix out in the next hour or so. VFR conditions are then expected until an area of showers and thunderstorms moves in from the southwest in the late afternoon/early evening. IFR visibility and strong gusty winds (40-50 kt) can be expected with any storms that impact airfields. Light rain showers likely persist behind any thunderstorms amid prevailing VFR conditions. VFR conditions are expected through tomorrow until showers and thunderstorms redevelop in the early to late afternoon, after the end of the current TAF period. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Curtis AVIATION...WFO PAH  960 FXUS61 KPBZ 141706 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 106 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Forecasts for the heat and possible record breaking temperatures remained largely in line with the previous cycle. The warm layer seems to be more of a hindrance that the past forecast led on. Some evaporative cooling to erode the cap will be needed today for significant severe storms. The Slight risk is still in line for tomorrow. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Anomalously warm temperatures this week. Daily record high max and minimum temperatures will be challenged and possibly broken, especially on Wednesday. 2) Increasing daily storm chances this week with a possible multi- day MCS event. Areawide marginal Risk of severe weather today. 3) Severe risk continues Wednesday with a Slight Risk of severe weather north of I-70 and Marginal Risk between I-68 and I-70. Storm chances to continue Thursday as well. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... The ridge anchored across the Southeast and eastern Gulf continues to influence our weather through the week. At its strongest, the ridge will near 590dam (just over 2 standard deviations above normal for this time of year). This abnormally strong ridge will continue to support abnormally high temperatures (over 3 standard deviations above normal) across the region through the work week and possibly as late as Saturday. Our location on the northwestern side of the ridge will continue warm and moist southwesterly flow over the coming days. Locally, heat looks to peak on Wednesday, with 500mb heights hitting 580dam over the city and widespread 850mb temperatures between 14-16C, suggesting that unhindered mixing would see temperatures surge into at least the middle 80s. Probabilities of high temperatures over 80 degrees remain near and over 60% for areas south of I-80 each day from Tuesday- Thursday and then again on Saturday. Friday looks like heating may be interrupted by a rain-laden cold front pushing through the region. This could finally help shake up the pattern before models seem to indicate another Low moving through the Great Lakes early this weekend. Record high max and min temperatures look like they will be tied or set at several sites across our region, especially on Wednesday and Thursday. Daily rain chances look to be the only thing possibly keeping a lid on record challenging runaway heating. These chances are highest north, closer to the periphery of the ridge, and thus probabilities of record setting heat generally decrease from south to north. Each site features at least one day with a >40% chance to set a new record high and PHD (shortest climate record) features 3 days with >70% chance. Concurrently, each site also features at least 2 days with >50% chance of setting new record high minimum temperatures and PIT features 5 straight days with >65% chance of doing so. PIT features several "low hanging fruit" in this category with 3 such daily high minimum temperatures in the 50s. Our forecast for Wednesday lows may break the old record of 58 by a whopping 8 degrees. Minor heat risk continues areawide today through Thursday before retracting some on Friday. Heat impacts will primarily be felt by those who are extremely sensitive to heat and those without cooling/hydration. Speckled moderate risk areas continue to crop up Wednesday and Saturday and are expanding in area, mainly in the Ohio and Mon river valleys. KEY MESSAGE 2... We are at the beginning of what looks like it could be a multi- day MCS event across the Great Lakes and into our region. This pattern owing to our anomalously strong ridge feels much more like a June setup than an April one. Warm and moist southwesterly flow will set the table each afternoon for storms to fire along decaying or residual boundaries left over from the previous nights convection and renewed convection cresting the top of the ridge could press into the forecast area overnight starting the whole process again. Todays convection is having a difficult time eroding the warm layer. As seen on the 12Z southing, strong capping was present at 700MB and below that. Thus storms are having a difficult time of developing and getting some depth. Early showers and thunderstorms have likely weaken the cap a bit. With afternoon heating, it will remain to be seen if deeper convection is realized as at this time, CAMs are struggling to develop anything now. Thus, it is likely that the development this afternoon will be subsevere. Certainly, a 40 mph gust can't be ruled out with an overperforming strong storm. Overnight, it looks likely that we decouple in a rapidly worsening environment. Several CAMs depict one or more bowing segments moving across southern MI towards us late tonight. These segments tend to move quicker than modeling suggests but would still likely not enter the region until after 2am or so. By this time it looks unlikely but still possible to see a damaging wind threat from these storms. KEY MESSAGE 3... The ridging and shortwave pattern and thus multi-day MCS event continues into Wednesday. Wednesday sees more impressive heating and increasing moisture advection in continued southwesterly flow. As such, model soundings feature well over 2000 J/kg of CAPE across much of the region, very impressive for our region in April. This comes hand in hand with a 5-10kt increase in shear when compared to Tuesday. These elements could allow for isolated to scattered super cellular structures to develop across the region or for a quick reinvigoration of any ongoing MCS/MCV left over from Tuesday night. Multi-day MCS propagation forecasting is very low confidence, with Wednesday's forecast highly dependent on Tuesday night. Storms on Wednesday look like they could bring all severe hazards, with increasing low-level moisture lowering LCLs and more robust CAPE at the SFC and in the -20 to -30C range. SPC has introduced a Marginal Risk to our region north of the Mason- Dixon Line and a Slight Risk north of I-70 on Wednesday. Timing for this seems to point more toward the 16Z to 20Z timeframe with additional convection after 23Z. Both time periods currently have a decent potential for development of severe storms. Storms look likely to continue on Thursday, but the pattern breaks down a little as a more meaningful SFC low moves through the Great Lakes. This could end the multi-day MCS event but could bring its own renewed chance for storms along the draping cold front. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Approaching MCV may spawn more widespread convection this afternoon into the early evening as it travels east, but confidence in storm coverage and timing is low as current convection and its progress are poorly modeled. The likelihood of seeing gusty and erratic winds does appears lower as increased cloud cover will limit heating and destabilization. VFR is favored in the wake of the MCV as storms diminish; however, linger storms or additional lift showers may keep storms longer near FKL/DUJ while also fostering late night MVFR cigs but confidence in this outcome is low. Additionally, upstream convection through Michigan may dive southeast after 09z but its ability to maintain strength (or even dive southward) remains a mystery. Wednesday's outlook is eerily similar with potential for thunderstorms that produce gusty winds but a wide range of timing/coverage solutions in play. Outlook... The Upper Ohio River Valley will remain positioned near the upper ridge axis throughout the week and make it liable for multiple shortwave crossing to foster periodic showers/thunderstorms and precip-driven restrictions. A pattern shift is unlikely to occur until late Sunday into Monday before confidence becomes high again on a prolonged period of dry, VFR weather. && .CLIMATE... See below for record max highs and max lows this week: Today, April 14th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 86F (1883) 64F (1896) Wheeling, WV: 87F (1941) 60F (2014) Morgantown, WV: 86F (2018) 66F (2014) New Philadelphia, OH: 82F (2023) 56F (2006) Zanesville, OH: 87F (1941) 60F (1899) DuBois, PA: 86F (2023) 60F (2014) Wednesday, April 15th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 85F (1883) 61F (1967) Wheeling, WV: 82F (2010) 59F (2002) Morgantown, WV: 86F (1993) 65F (1967) New Philadelphia, OH: 82F (2010) 58F (2023) Zanesville, OH: 85F (1941) 61F (1972) DuBois, PA: 79F (2003) 56F (2002) Thursday, April 16th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 86F (2002) 63F (2017) Wheeling, WV: 86F (1945) 64F (2002) Morgantown, WV: 88F (2002) 64F (2012) New Philadelphia, OH: 85F (2002) 62F (2017) Zanesville, OH: 86F (2002) 65F (1912) DuBois, PA: 82F (2012) 59F (1976) Friday, April 17th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 87F (1896) 63F (1896) Wheeling, WV: 84F (2002) 64F (2002) Morgantown, WV: 89F (1976) 64F (1960) New Philadelphia, OH: 84F (2002) 60F (1982) Zanesville, OH: 88F (1896) 66F (1896) DuBois, PA: 83F (2002) 60F (2002) Saturday, April 18th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 90F (1896) 64F (1896) Wheeling, WV: 85F (2025) 63F (2002) Morgantown, WV: 92F (1976) 64F (2013) New Philadelphia, OH: 86F (1976) 57F (2019) Zanesville, OH: 92F (1896) 66F (1896) DuBois, PA: 87F (1976) 61F (2002) && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Shallenberger/AK AVIATION...Frazier  087 FXUS64 KHUN 141707 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1207 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1010 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Low relative humidity values, dry fuels, and gusty winds will result in elevated fire weather conditions today through Wednesday. - There are medium chances (30-40%) of showers and storms on Thursday. - Medium chances (30-60%) of showers and storms return on Saturday. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 1010 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The upper level pattern remains unchanged with ridging east and troughing west. Current satellite imagery shows high level cirrus moving from west to east across the area, but otherwise mostly sunny skies are forecast today. High pressure centered near the GA/FL state line will reinforce the dry and warm airmass with southerly flow throughout the day. As a result, dewpoints are expected to mix out this afternoon from the upper 50s down into the upper 40s to lower 50s with the lowest values in NE AL. With afternoon highs forecast to rise into the mid 80s, this would drop RH values into the 25-35 percent range. The good news is that winds will remain below red flag criteria with gusts this afternoon around 15 mph. Given the very dry fuels, this may result in localized elevated fire weather conditions and caution continues to be urged. Tranquil conditions continue tonight with overnight lows dropping down into the upper 50s to lower 60s. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Thursday Night) Issued at 1010 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Near record warmth is forecast through the short term period with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s on Wednesday and Thursday. These temperatures are around 10 degrees above climatological normals for this time of year. Locally, not much change is in store as high pressure along the Southeast coast continues to be the main factor in our local weather pattern. One thing to watch is on Thursday as a shortwave riding along the trough to our west will push eastward towards the Tennessee River Valley. This will bring a low to medium chance (20-40%) of showers and thunderstorms Thursday evening. Unfortunately, overall rain amounts will remain quite low and will not put much of a dent into our deficit this Spring. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 1052 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 The extended forecast period will begin with a continuation of warm/dry conditions, as a 500-mb ridge builds northeastward in the wake of a low amplitude shortwave trough and weak surface low tracking eastward across the northern Mid-Atlantic states. With only a few high-based cumulus anticipated beneath a strengthening mid- level inversion and light SSW flow in the low-levels, most valley locations will experience highs in the u80s-l90s. Low-level flow will begin to increase on Friday evening as a deepening vort max (embedded within the base of a broader trough extending from southern Canada into the northern Plains) begins to eject northeastward into the MO Valley, resulting in development of a frontal wave that will lift northeastward from KS into WI by 12Z Saturday. Latest model guidance suggests that both the mid-level wave and surface low will undergo substantial intensification as they progress further northeastward into eastern OT/western QC by 12Z Sunday, with showers and thunderstorms expected to develop along the length of the trailing cold front and perhaps a prefrontal surface trough (from IL/IN into the northwestern Gulf Coast) Saturday afternoon. As the cold front begins to overtake the surface trough across the TN Valley Saturday evening, chances for much needed rainfall will increase across our forecast area, but there remains a large amount of uncertainty regarding rainfall amounts (ranging from around 0.05-0.10" as a worst case scenario to 0.5-0.75" as a best case scenario). This is likely due to the combination of substantial amount of lingering CINH noted in forecast soundings and a narrow plume of modified Gulf moisture which will only overspread the entire region immediately in advance of the front. Should the low/mid-level thermodynamic profile improve, rainfall amounts would likely be closer to the best case scenario, and a few strong storms capable of producing gusty winds would also be probable given sufficiently strong WSW flow aloft (45-55 knots) for updraft organization. Regardless, the front appears as if it will be exiting our region early Sunday morning, with any lingering precipitation ending in our southeastern zones around 12Z Sunday. A cooler/drier continental airmass will overspread the region for the remainder of the period, featuring highs in the u60s-l70s Sunday and overnight lows in the l-m 40s Monday morning. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1206 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period at KHSV and KMSL. Southwesterly gusts will slack shortly after sunset but they will pick back up to 15kts after sunrise tomorrow. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...GH SHORT TERM....GH LONG TERM....70 AVIATION...JMS  665 FXUS63 KABR 141707 AAB AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1207 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mostly dry through late Thursday. - Temperatures 15 to 25 degrees above normal Thursday (Highs: low 70s to low 80s) and low humidity. This and south winds 25 to 30 mph results in High/Very High Grassland Fire Danger. - Colder Friday/Saturday. Saturday high temperatures 10 to 20 degrees below normal (Highs in the 40s). && .UPDATE... Issued at 1206 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Aviation discussion below has been updated in accordance with the 18Z TAF issuance. UPDATE Issued at 806 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Dense fog has once again stuck around early this morning, and surface observations show lingering areas of visibility below a quarter of a mile, particularly in the James River Valley and the Prairie Coteau areas. Expecting conditions to improve more quickly than they did yesterday with westerly winds gradually increasing to about 10 miles per hour gusting to 15 over the next couple of hours and helping to dispell the fog. Part of the Dense Fog Advisory has been extended to 15Z to match the new expectations. Other than visibility adjustments to better line up with surface observations, no significant changes have been made to the forecast at this point. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1217 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Surface high to the north continues to feed cool stable air into the region around midnight. As such, upslope favored areas with this wind trajectory will again see fog/stratus expand over the next few hours. Towards morning, the pressure gradient is much weaker, winds gradually organizing around to westerly as a surface low lifts northeast across North Dakota. 850mb temperatures are coolest today, ranging between +3 to +9C from northeast to southwest respectively. Will give temperatures a slight bump above deterministic NBM which falls about 3-4 degrees below the NBM mean given the favorable mixing direction, with the expectation that shallow low clouds/fog also mix out with these light west winds. We fall under the influence of a very weak surface high tonight, and on the backside, winds shift back to southerly for Wednesday. We start to see milder air moving in late Wednesday, with the core of the warmest air overhead for Thursday, though with a front positioned just to our northwest. Its another interesting temperature forecast for Thursday with the deterministic NBM again falling close to the 10th percentile for high temperatures, about a difference of 8 degrees between that and the mean. Deterministic model 850mb temperatures run from +16 to +19C with the Canadian being a distinct cool anomaly. The surface flow is around a low that develops over Wyoming with an inverted trough/warm front extending up northeast across South Dakota. This provides for a favorable mixing environment with southwest winds south of the boundary. The big question here is where does this surface feature set up with the main deterministic models having a pretty tight thermal gradient across northwest South Dakota to south central North Dakota and any wobble in the next several runs could translate this gradient elsewhere, and as such could result in a forecast or forecast adjustment bust. Will leave NBM temperatures alone Thursday for now. A side note in regards to these conditions, it is interesting how deep mixing is depicted in NAM BUFKIT profiles, up to approximately 12kft out by Pierre, 10kft for KMBG and 8kft for KABR! Shallow high/surface based altocumulus may result but there is limited CAPE above the deep surface boundary layer, and a substantial dry layer. All this above the 0C layer as well. So maybe add the option for some additional gustiness with dry/snow microburst. That surface low translates southwards, bringing much colder air back into the region for Thursday night/Friday. We go from 850mb temperatures a standard deviation above climo, to a standard deviation below climo for Saturday. Forecast temperatures reflect this with about a 35F drop between Thursday and Friday/Saturday. Precipitation will be pretty meager for the next few days. A mid level deck is depicted in the NAM across south central and far eastern South Dakota today with a deep dry layer. We also see precipitation chances in the NBM increase Friday, as a trough deepens to our west. Most of the model QPF appears to come on the backside of the system as the surface low has moved off well to the east. GFS BUFKIT profiles hint that a deep stratus layer accompanies the change in airmasses, though if this is the case then we'd be looking at more drizzle/sprinkles type precipitation. And while NBM POPs are quite high, overall the QPF is from a few hundreds to maybe 2/10ths. GEFS is in line with this thinking with just a few members showing moisture greater than a tenth of an inch. NBM probability of 0.25 inches or greater is only about 40% across the northern tier of the state, to around 20% from Pierre to Watertown. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1206 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG Lingering morning fog has dissipated, although a few minor visibility reductions may linger for another hour or so in the early afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the rest of the period. Some scattered low clouds will stick around this afternoon, but bases are expected to be above MVFR levels. Light and variable winds are expected late tonight before solidifying in a southerly direction Wednesday morning. There is some signal in model guidance for some minor visibility reductions from fog, but confidence is low on anything widespread or any visibility reductions to MVFR status or lower. Therefore, no mention has been put into the TAFs at this time. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...BC DISCUSSION...07 AVIATION...BC  247 FXUS63 KIND 141707 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 107 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Active pattern this week with near daily chances for showers and storms. Friday likely to be the driest day of the week. - Scattered storms possible this afternoon and evening for Central and North Central Indiana, a few of which may be strong to severe. - Near record warm temperatures expected through Saturday with multiple days in the 80s and lows in the 60s. && .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 944 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 An MCV moving into northwest Indiana and a boundary stretching from it southwest into Illinois is generating scattered convection across northwest central Indiana into central Illinois this morning. SPC Mesoanalysis shows that the convection across the area is in a relative minimum in instability, but the storms have produced small hail in east central Illinois. Instability will continue to increase across the southern and eastern forecast area this morning as partial sunshine works on an already warm and moist atmosphere. Thus, the storms may increase in coverage and intensity later this morning into early afternoon. The 12Z HRRR agrees and shows this happening. If storms intensify, damaging winds and large hail would be the primary threat. However, with a boundary involved, will have to watch for rotation and the possibility of isolated tornadoes. Will have to monitor how well the atmosphere recovers later this afternoon and for the boundary's movement north in response to increasing southwest winds aloft. && .DISCUSSION (Today through Monday)... Issued at 319 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Through Tonight... Central Indiana remains firmly within the warm sector of an elongated area of low pressure stretching from Minnesota into the Central Plains. Southwesterly flow remains in place aloft with numerous waves of energy within the mid and upper levels bringing renewed chances for convection in Indiana. While the main storm track over the next 24 hours remains to the west and northwest, closer to the surface fronts and area of low pressure, this pattern does support scattered convection developing or tracking near Central Indiana. A very warm and humid environment with modest shear aloft will support at least a marginal threat for severe weather for the next several days as this same pattern persists. Current satelitte imagery and observations show an overnight MCS along a warm front in Wisconsin and Michigan while a dying area of showers and storms is located near St. Louis. CAMs guidance has a poor handle on the evolution of mesoscale features within this broad southwesterly flow regime within the warm sector; therefore forecast confidence on timing and placement of thunderstorm chances the next several days is fairly low. The greatest storm threat and timing will is all dependent on mesoscale and microscale boundaries which develop as these dying complexes of storms enter Central Indiana. This is a typical warm season set up where the forecast for the next 12 hours all depends on such small minute details which even CAMs struggle to resolve. Therefore, numerous forecast updates will likely occur as the convective set up for each day evolves. Based on current trends early this morning, it appears the southern end of the MCS pushing into Northern Illinois may clip portions of North Central Indiana within the 6am to 9am timeframe as the MCS backbuilds to the southwest under a strong southwesterly LLJ aloft. Elsewhere across Central Indiana, higher clouds will continue to overspread the region from dying storms to the west and the approaching storms to the northwest. Not concerned with severe storms this morning; however based on current soundings showing steep low level lapse rates, any shower has the capability to bring down higher gusts aloft in the 40-55 mph range. A lull in the precipitation chances is likely late morning through early afternoon across Central Indiana; however this is where there is lower confidence in the forecast. Will have to watch where leftover boundaries from this morning's convection set up as this will be where evening storms likely develop. Since Central Indiana is well within the warm sector away from synoptic level fronts, forcing along any leftover boundary will be fairly weak, keeping overall coverage of evening storms widely scattered. However, any storm does have the threat to be severe with all hazards on the table. 2000-3000 J/kg CAPE and 20-35 kts of shear will be enough to support a supercell threat along any of these boundaries. Current thinking is that along and north of I-70 will have the threat for these widely scattered storms 4PM to around 10PM. Will monitor how everything evolves through the day and provide forecast updates as confidence increases on exact locations of potential storm development and associated threats. Outside of storms, deep low level mixing within a warm and humid environment with continued warm air advection will result in near record high temperatures in the 80s today for Central Indiana. Wednesday through Saturday... The overall pattern remains relatively the same going into midweek as the elongated area of low pressure and fronts slowly shift closer to Indiana. With southwest flow continuing aloft, any upper impulse moving through the flow will have the potential to generate scattered convection in an unstable atmosphere. Convection generated by the front to the north could also impact North Central Indiana at times. Isolated strong to severe convection is possible given expected parameters. Temperatures on Wednesday depends on sky cover and rain coverage, but for now will go with upper 70s north to middle 80s south. No matter where convection forms, it will likely feel more like July than Mid April in this type of pattern with such high humidity levels. Wednesday night into Thursday, an upper trough moves into the area, providing better forcing for more widespread storms. The surface front could move into the area, but there is a good amount of uncertainty on timing of greatest coverage for storms Wednesday night into Thursday depending on when the front moves through and also associated smaller shortwaves, which guidance likely can't resolve at this time. While confidence is high in more widespread rain and storm chances, timing and overall extent of the severe threat is still uncertain. Brief upper ridging looks to move in on Friday, providing a dry and warm to hot day. A larger upper trough moves in on Saturday bringing a strong cold front through the area. This will result in another round of showers and thunderstorms, some possibly strong to severe once again. Sunday and Monday... A brief cool down expected for the region latter half of the weekend and into early next week. Longer range guidance continues to hint at upper troughing developing over SE Canada and the NE CONUS going into early next week, allowing for cooler airmasses from Canada to drop southward behind Saturday's front. Still uncertainty on the overall location and track of the incoming high pressure, but confidence remains high in a few days of much cooler weather and the potential for a few frosty mornings in the 30s. Highs will be below normal, with the coldest readings Sunday in the 50s. Lows in the middle to upper 30s may occur Saturday night and Sunday night. Frost potnetial is certainly there but confidence is only marginal at this time as the placement of the high pressure will ultimately determine if optimal conditions for radiational cooling and frost occur over Central Indiana or elsewhere within the Ohio Valley. && .AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 107 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Impacts: - Wind gusts up to 25 to 30kt likely through the period - Scattered convection at times, especially during the afternoon and evening hours Discussion: Scattered to broken low VFR cumulus will be around to start the period, but bases will rise during the afternoon. Scattered low level clouds will continue through the period, with some possibility of broken low VFR conditions returning Wednesday morning. Multiple boundaries through the period lead to a very uncertain convection forecast. Will put some PROB30s for a couple of periods where odds are higher. On Wednesday, the northern sites will have the most likely odds of convection. MVFR and worse conditions are possible in convection. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Within the setup described in the discussion above, near record temperatures are possible at times this week, mainly Tuesday, and Friday. Whether readings get close depends on sky cover and any rain staying away, which keeps confidence lower at this time. Current deterministic model runs are cooler than the records, but the potential exists to get within a few degrees if everything lines up. On Tuesday April 14, Indy's record high is 85, set in 1883. On Friday April 17, Indy's record high is 87, set in 1896. Record high minimum temperatures are also in play at times given the warm and relatively humid air mass. The first opportunity for this comes Monday, when the record high minimum at Indy is 63, set in 2014 and tied in 2018. At the moment, the forecast is for tying that number. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ AVIATION...50 DISCUSSION...CM CLIMATE...Ryan  184 FXUS63 KBIS 141707 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1207 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Low chance of light rain across the south tonight. - Mainly dry and warmer today and Wednesday. - Wide range in temperatures from northwest to southeast Thursday as a cold front pushes into the state. - Significant cool down for the end of the week, with medium chances for rain and snow. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1158 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Adjusted sky cover with the midday update. Low stratus continues to diminish, but may hang for a good part of the afternoon over eastern portions of central ND. Updated text products will be sent shortly. UPDATE Issued at 947 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Rain and snow has exited the forecast area. Still a couple areas of patchy dense fog, but vsbys look to be improving. We do have a SPS continuing through 10:30 AM for the Highway 2 corridor in the northwest. For the morning update we increased sky cover through this morning for most areas. The low stratus has cleared in the southwest. UPDATE Issued at 645 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Showers are found over north central North Dakota at the time of this early morning update. The heaviest precpitation occurring over Pierce and Rolette counties, where rain has transitioned to snow over the past few hours. Visibilities over this area have been consistently around 1/2 to 2 miles while snow has been falling, so we wouldn't be surprised to see accumulations on grass and elevated surfaces once the sun rises. Precpitation will generally end over the next few hours as the inciting low continues to exit to the northeast. Otherwise this morning, fog has developed where precpitation has ceased across the west and south central. A tour of NDDOT camera reveals it to be fairly patchy, except over the far south central where it has been a little more consistently socked in. Fog is generally expected to lift through the mid morning. With this update, have made tweaks to the PoPs and sky grids to account for the latest model trends, and bumped up fog in the far south central. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track at this time. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The remnants of precpitation overnight continue to exit to the northeast with the inciting low pressure center this morning. While still mainly falling as light rain, some snow may become mixed into this is precpitation in the Turtle Mountains area as cooler air wraps around the low. Little to no snow accumulation is expected. Low stratus and some patchy fog lingers behind the rain, though both are expected to clear from west to east through through the mid morning. Lows are broadly in the 30s to lower 40s. Near zonal to slightly southwesterly flow is expected over the northern Plains as another transient shortwave / closed low cross the region. Short term deterministic models continue to nudge the track of this low slightly further and further north over the past few forecast cycles, skimming across our southern counties late this afternoon and overnight. With this more northerly track, there is some potential for light precpitation across portions of the northwest and north central during this period. An interrogation of BUFKIT model soundings across the south this evening reveals a fairly dry layer near surface layer than any precpitation that does form would need to overcome, thus have opted to limit precpitation to a very low chance (<20 percent). Otherwise, cloud cover across the south central might be a little slow to clear out through today compared to the north and far west with this shortwave. Highs this afternoon are above normal by around 5 to 10 degrees, forecast broadly in the mid 50s east to mid 60s west. Lows tonight are expected to be in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Dry and warm conditions linger through Wednesday, with highs peaking well into the 60s to lower 70s across the forecast area. Flow over the northern Plains is expected to turn increasingly southwesterly through late Wednesday and through the day Thursday as closed upper level Pacific trough and associated surface low makes it way across southwestern Canada. As the influence of this low complex increases through the day on Thursday, a fairly stark gradient in high temperatures is expected in the afternoon, from the lower 40s across the north up to the mid 70s in the far south central. Chances for precpitation will also increase from northwest to southeast through the day Thursday, becoming likely overnight through Friday morning. The ensemble continues to advertise a general transition from mostly rain Thursday to a rain-snow mix or all snow overnight into Friday as the cold front associated with the low complex digs across the forecast area. There remains some disagreement about when and where this transition occurs, with a slight majority of clusters (55 percent) favoring a slightly slower evolution of the system, allowing for a greater amount of the precpitation associated with this wave to fall during the coolest period of the night. With this, light snow accumulations up to an inch or two are possible across much of western and central North Dakota, though the highest amounts would be along the International Border. A minority cluster (45 percent) favors a slightly quicker low, allowing for the bulk of precpitation across the west and south to fall mainly as rain. In this scenario, light snow accumulations would mainly be limited to the far north central. In either scenario, this snow isn't expected to be impactful, or last on the ground very long at all. Otherwise, breezy to windy conditions are expected both Thursday and Friday as a sharp pressure gradient develops across the forecast area. With these winds being gradient driven, we don't expect these winds to be overly impactful, perhaps near advisory at best across portions of the southwest. This thinking is backed by the lack of any highlight in the EFI during this period. Below normal highs in the 30s and 40s can be anticipated both Friday and Saturday with the much cooler airmass situated over the northern Plains, before a developing longwave ridge across much of the western CONUS will help warming temperatures return late in the weekend into early next week. There remains a decent amount of disagreement within the ensemble on timing, resulting in a 15 to 20 degree spread in highs Monday and Tuesday, but all clusters appear to resolve in a brief blocking pattern setting up early next week. With this, dry conditions can also be anticipated during this period. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1158 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 IFR ceilings at most TAF sites to begin the 18Z TAF period. KDIK has just cleared from the low stratus. Fog has dissipated and stratus will continue to clear through the afternoon, with KMOT and KJMS holding on to the stratus longer. KBIS and KXWA should clear out in the next couple of hours. Once stratus clears, expect VFR conditions for the remainder of the TAF period. The exception is patchy fog possible in the James River Valley overnight, including KJMS, but probabilities are too low to include in the KJMS TAF. An isolated evening/overnight shower is possible southwest and south central tonight but coverage is too isolated to include in TAFS. Surface flow variable from westerly to southerly through the TAF period generally 15 knots or less. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...TWH DISCUSSION...Adam AVIATION...TWH  722 FXUS62 KTAE 141709 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 109 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 108 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Little or no rain is expected through this weekend. Drought conditions will worsen. Fire concerns will remain elevated. Use extreme caution with any outdoor burning. Please heed burn bans where they are in effect. - Above normal temperatures will continue through this weekend, with lower 90s likely late this week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 833 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The previous forecast appears to be on track. No updates were needed. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 222 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A large upper level ridge will prevail over the southeast US through the remainder of the week. Under this ridge, surface high pressure will remain dominant with high temperatures well above normal and in the upper 80s. It wouldn't be surprising for some locations to touch the 90s by the upcoming weekend. With the ridge in control, no rainfall is expected through the remainder of the week and potentially into the weekend. Fire concerns will also stay elevated given the dry conditions in place and expected forecast. The ridge will likely begin to break down some late in the weekend and into early next week as a frontal system approaches. However, rainfall amounts will be very small, if any, from this frontal system. The main concerns with this system will be the influx of drier air and potential increase in fire weather concerns given elevated post-frontal winds. && .LONG TERM... && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 108 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period, with the exception of brief MVFR/IFR fog possible tonight, with most being limited to ECP/DHN. && .MARINE... Issued at 222 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A surface high extending from the western Atlantic will keep generally light to gentle southeasterly winds over the waters for the next several days. Seabreezes can be expected to push just inland during the afternoon hours. Later this week, the High will settle a little further south, shifting our winds more southerly. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 222 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Warm and dry conditions will continue through the week as drought conditions will continue and/or worsen. Transport winds will generally be southerly; swinging from southeasterly to southwesterly at around 5-10 mph. Expect afternoon seabreezes across Florida counties. Dispersions will be moderate, with higher dispersions expected by Wednesday lasting into the weekend. Given antecedent conditions and RHs dropping into the low 30% range most afternoons, expect some fire concerns each day. While uncertainty remains high at these longer lead times, some greater fire weather concerns could develop over the weekend or early next week with the passage of a dry cold front. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 222 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 No rain is expected for the next several days. Drought conditions will continue or worsen. For more local drought information & statements, visit the following websites: weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 87 59 88 58 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 81 61 81 63 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 87 58 88 58 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 88 60 89 60 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 88 59 90 58 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 87 57 88 58 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 76 62 77 63 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ114-115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Dobbs LONG TERM....Dobbs AVIATION...LF MARINE...Dobbs FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs HYDROLOGY...Dobbs  151 FXUS61 KBOX 141711 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 111 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes, the forecast remains on track. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Summerlike warmth Today and Wednesday away from the coast, with scattered late day/early evening thunderstorms and a low risk of severe weather. - Backdoor front may bring cooler temperatures Thu-Sat, especially in eastern MA, but uncertainty is high in exactly where it ends up. - More seasonable temperatures early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Summerlike warmth Today and Wednesday away from the coast, with scattered thunderstorms & a low risk of severe weather. Confidence remains high in summerlike warmth Today and Wednesday away from both coasts, as strong subtropical ridge builds over the region from the Gulf. All hi res guid has highs both days easily reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s inland (+18C to +20C at 925 mph). Any early morning fog will burn off rapidly. Meanwhile, a weak pressure gradient supports cooling seabreezes for the immediate coastal areas, with temps dropping into the 50s to around 60. However, locations such as Boston and eastern MA, late morning/early afternoon seabreeze may give way to a warmer wind shift to the SSW after 18z/19z, as low level southwest jet traverses the region. This would yield a late day high temp, after 4/5pm. We continue to monitor the potential for severe storms during late afternoon and evening both Tue and Wed, mainly 2 PM to 10 PM (highest probs 4-8pm). Low amplitude s/wvs moving through the westerly flow, only yielding weak forcing for ascent, which is evident by the lack of height falls from each of these s/wvs. However, modest mixed layer CAPE up to 1000 j/kg, modest mid level lapse rates around 6.5C/KM and 0-6km shear up to 45 kt, providing sufficient instability and shear to compensate for the lack of strong forcing. This is reflective by hi res guid offering 2-5km updraft helocity tracks into western-central MA/CT, along with highest probabilities of lightning. Convection will weaken as it traverses eastward into RI and eastern MA. Not expecting a widespread severe weather, but can't rule out a few isolates storms that approach severe in western-central CT/MA. Given the shear and instability, along with steep low level lapse rates, strong to damaging winds will be the main threat. As previous forecaster noted, atmosphere still looks favorable for thunderstorms on Wed, although the high-res models don't show much in way of activity. Severe risk is lower on CSU and SPC HREF with axis shifted farther south into CT/RI and south of the Mass Pike. While overall severe threat remains low, we can't rule out a few storms capable of producing localized wind damage or hail. KEY MESSAGE 2...Backdoor front may bring cooler temperatures Thu- Sat, especially in eastern MA, but uncertainty is high in exactly where is ends up. Temp forecast becomes more uncertain later this week, as short wave energy riding up and over the top of the subtropical ridge, may be strong enough to lower heights and have a backdoor front enter SNE, especially northeast MA. However, at this time range, low predictability regarding the amplitude of individual short waves and attending surface boundaries/backdoor fronts. Thus, certainly potential for big temperature busts this far out in time. Showers and thunderstorms could be more widespread Friday, as multi model guidance suggest a more robust mid level short wave moving across the Northeast into New England. KEY MESSAGE 3...More seasonable temperatures early next week. As expected, difficult to sustain temps 20+ degs warmer than normal in April, thus good multi model agreement (especially at this time range) that a strong cold front is expected to cross region sometime Sun, accompanied by some showers, that could spill into early Monday. Much cooler airmass follows behind front early next week, with temperatures returning to more typical levels for mid April, generally in 50s to around 60. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. This Afternoon and Tonight...Moderate confidence in areal coverage of TSRA and timing. VFR. A cold front brings hit-and-miss thunderstorms to areas across western New England late this afternoon into the early evening. This could lead to brief MVFR ceilings and IFR visibilities. It bank of low stratus/fog develops off the east coast of MA, which should remain off shore the first half of the night, before inching on shore early Wednesday morning, here flight categories fall to MVFR. SW to S wind today, periodically gusty 15-20 knots. Wind speeds ease overnight, becoming calm in protected areas. Wednesday and Wednesday Night... Moderate Confidence. Becoming VFR. A frontal boundary remains in the vicinity of SNE and have moderate confidence this remains across NE MA. North of the boundary MVFR with winds E to E. South of the boundary VFR and winds are SW. Showers and thunderstorms develop along the boundary between 18z-00z. Overnight becoming IFR to MVFR across most of the region, the only area that could remain low-end VFR is be the lower CT River Valley and points SW. Light southwest wind. KBOS Terminal... Moderate confidence in TAF. Have moderate confidence in the chance of TSRA and lower clouds Wednesday morning. Will have LLWS tonight between 02z-08z. KBDL Terminal... Moderate confidence in TAF. Have moderate confidence in the timing and coverage of TSRA this afternoon/evening. Outlook /Wednesday Night through Sunday/... Wednesday Night through Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. Thursday Night through Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 220 AM update... High confidence through the end of the week, except across the northern MA waters, where uncertainty is high regarding the timing and position of backdoor front Wednesday through the end of the week. SCA remains in effect for leftover rough seas. Weak pressure gradient will support subsiding seas along with developing seabreezes near shore beginning late Tue morning. Only other issues will be late night/early morning fog and possible late day/evening brief isolated shower/thunderstorm. Outlook /Wednesday Night through Sunday/... Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. Thursday through Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. && .CLIMATE... Upcoming record highs: Tue 4/14 Boston 83 in 2023 Hartford 96 in 2023 Providence 87 in 2023 Worcester 90 in 2023 Wed 4/15 Boston 82 in 1896 Hartford 88 in 1941 Providence 82 in 1938 Worcester 85 in 1941 && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ254>256. && $$ DISCUSSION...Nocera AVIATION...KJC/Loconto/Dooley MARINE...Nocera CLIMATE...Nocera  292 FXUS64 KOHX 141713 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1213 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1212 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - There is an enhanced fire danger on Wednesday due to dry fuels, low RH values and gusty winds. - Expect unseasonal warmth to last through Saturday. - There are medium to high rain/storm chances Thursday and Thursday evening, and again this weekend. No severe weather is anticipated. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 1029 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Middle Tennessee finds itself under the influence of an early- season Bermuda High pattern today, and this will continue through tomorrow. There will be an elevated fire danger on Wednesday owing to dry fuels, afternoon RH values bottoming out in the 30-35% range most areas, and gusty winds. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1029 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A quasi-stationary surface boundary currently is situated to our northwest, and this will eventually bring rain and storm chances to the region on Thursday and Thursday evening. We can expect some instability with this environment, especially over northwest portions of the mid state, but the risk of any severe storms is very low, and, unfortunately, QPF values don't bring much hope that our burgeoning drought conditions will abate. Indeed, the frontal boundary will dry out considerably as it comes through Middle Tennessee, and so expected rainfall totals taper off from northwest to southeast. A stronger cold front is poised to sweep across the region on Saturday and Saturday evening. Again, QPF values won't move the needle much regarding the drought. In fact, the pre-frontal air mass will be so dry that the bulk of the convection that develops from this system will be post-frontal, so that will definitely limit the severe potential. However, temperatures behind the fropa will be considerably cooler, and that will be primary impact from our weekend cold front. Low temperatures Sunday night/Monday morning will range primarily from the upper 30s to low 40s; a few of our higher elevation spots may even wake up to a light frost. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1212 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. Southwesterly winds gusting around 20 knots will taper off around 00Z, but will become gusty again late Wednesday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 64 86 65 83 / 0 0 10 60 Clarksville 66 86 66 83 / 0 0 40 80 Crossville 57 82 59 81 / 0 0 10 30 Columbia 62 85 63 84 / 0 0 10 50 Cookeville 60 82 62 80 / 0 0 10 40 Jamestown 60 83 59 81 / 0 0 10 40 Lawrenceburg 60 84 62 83 / 0 0 10 40 Murfreesboro 61 86 63 84 / 0 0 10 50 Waverly 66 86 67 83 / 0 0 30 70 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rose LONG TERM....Rose AVIATION.....Clements  093 FXUS64 KLCH 141714 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1214 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm, humid conditions will continue through the end of the week with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s. - A cold front will move through the region Saturday evening into early Sunday morning accompanied by showers and thunderstorms. - Cooler, drier air will move into the region Sunday through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Monday) Issued at 1201 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 High pressure centered over the southeastern gulf will maintain breezy southerly winds and above normal temperatures through the rest of the week. Afternoon highs are expected to approach and possibly eclipse 90 across parts of central Louisiana and interior southeast Texas Thursday and Friday afternoons. This, combined with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s, will produce a noticeable heat index for the first time this year. A cold front is expected to push through the area Saturday evening into Sunday morning bringing the next appreciable chance of precipitation. While most areas are likely to see at least some rainfall, totals are expected to be meager ranging between a quarter and three quarters of an inch. Noticeably cooler air will filter into the region behind the front with afternoon highs Sunday and Monday in the mid 70s and overnight lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. A gradual warmup will begin Tuesday into the middle of next week. Jones && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1201 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through afternoon. Breezy southerly winds between 10-15 knots will persist through the afternoon before diminishing after 01Z this evening. Some patchy ground fog will be possible early Wednesday morning between 07 and 13Z, but probabilities are not high enough to explicitly include in tafs at present. Any fog that develops will diminish no later than 14Z with VFR conditions to prevail thereafter. Jones && .MARINE... Issued at 1201 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 High pressure over the southeastern gulf will maintain steady onshore winds between 10-15 knots through Saturday. A cold front will move through the coastal waters Saturday night accompanied by showers and thunderstorms. Strong offshore winds of 25-30 knots will develop in the wake of the front Sunday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1201 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 High pressure over the southeastern gulf will maintain breezy southerly winds today through Saturday. Minimum RH values each afternoon will range from 40-60%. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...66 AVIATION...66  932 FXUS61 KALY 141715 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 115 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Some patchy fog was added to the Upper Hudson River Valley, Lake George Region and southern Adirondacks this morning. The Storm Prediction Center upgraded eastern NY and western New England to a Slight Risk (Level 2 out of 5) for the potential of severe thunderstorms today into tonight. Minor changes to timing of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into the early evening with the pre-frontal trough and low pressure system passing to the north over northern NY/New England for the threat of strong to severe thunderstorms. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Scattered strong to potentially severe thunderstorms this afternoon into the early evening with damaging wind gusts the main threat to trees, power poles and property. 2. Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday south of the Capital Region. 3. The threat for widespread impactful weather is low from Thu through the end of the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... The mid and upper level flow is nearly zonal over the Northeast this morning with a frontal boundary over upstate NY and New England. The air mass is more humid today and after morning patchy fog burns off, temps should warm quickly from the I-90 corridor south. The boundary drifts back north in the morning. A pre-frontal sfc trough in the warm sector will focus a round of showers and thunderstorms today, some of which could be strong to severe. The latest HREF guidance indicates mean SBCAPEs of 500-1000 J/kg with pockets in excess of 1000 J/kg. The deep layer shear in the 0-6 km layer is 35-45 KT based on the HREF. The winds are strong in the H700-500 layer at about 50 KT. The latest CAM guidance is variable on the timing of initially some discrete cells forming in the late morning/early pm over central NY and west of the Hudson River Valley and then quickly forming into a line impacting most of eastern NY and western New England in the mid-late pm/early evening. The last several runs of the 3-km HRRR are faster with the impact period from about 1-6 pm, whereas the 3-km NAM is slower in the 3 to 7 pm time frame. Some of the model soundings from the 3-km HRRR indicate MLCAPE reaching about 1000 J/kg with DCAPE in the 500-800 J/kg. Both the 3-km HRRR and NAMnest indicated steep low-level lapse rates below 850 hPa from the Capital Region south. The updrafts may extend tall enough and tap into those strong winds in the H700-500 layer for a robust damaging wind potential. SPC upgraded the entire area to a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) with 15% probabilities for damaging winds 50 KT or greater. Bowing segments will be possible with the line. There is some uncertainty if the line will impact locations in our southeast extreme (mid Hudson Valley/NW CT). We tried to take a blended approach based on the NBM and collab with neighbors for the main impact period to be 2 to 8 pm (18Z to 00Z). With the fast flow this could move through quicker though. The damaging winds could knock down trees, break large tree branches, down power poles and lines, and yield some property. Also, CG lightning will be an issue with the thunderstorms. Humidity levels will be moderate with dewpoints in the 50s to lower 60s. Temps will depend on sky cover, but 70s to lower 80s will be possible. The lower 80s will be from Albany south to the I-84 corridor into NW CT. 60s will be common over the southern Greens and the southern Adirondacks. The showers and thunderstorms decrease early tonight with some patchy fog forming especially along and north of the Mohawk River Valley. Lows will be very mild in the 50s to lower 60s. KEY MESSAGE 2... Another wave quickly approaches from the central and eastern Great Lakes Region Wed morning. The short-wave will move along the rim of the ridge centered over the Southeast and Florida. Showers and some isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms impact locations from I-90 northward in the late morning/early pm. One area that may be vulnerable for isolated to widely scattered strong thunderstorms will be near the I-84 corridor (southeast Catskills, mid Hudson Valley and NW CT). Mid-level lapse rates steepen, and the deep shear is still 40 KT with MLCAPEs around 1000 J/kg. A damaging wind and large hail threat is possible and SPC continues most of the area in a Marginal (Level 1 out 5) Risk for severe thunderstorms. Highs 80 to 85F will be common in this area with 60s and 70s further north. The latest 3-km NAMnest indicates some stronger cells may form along and south of the Capital Region with the 00Z 3-km HRRR with less of a threat. KEY MESSAGE 3... Above normal temps conclude the work week and enter the weekend. However, a cold frontal passage on Sunday may keep temps closer to normal and then next week could start with cooler than normal based on the WPC Days 4 to 7 forecast inserted. Backing up, ridging may build in enough for the warmest temps of the week (mid 70s to lower 80s outside the northern mtns) on Thu with NBM probs (40-90%) supporting this. Yet another disturbance moving along the stalled boundary over northern NY and New England will bring scattered to numerous showers with some thunderstorms for Thu with the highest probabilities for precipitation 50-70% from I-90 north with lesser of a threat south. A stronger mid and upper level trough along with the cold front will keep chances of showers on Friday before a brief reprieve of drier weather to open the weekend. The probability of impactful weather Thu through the weekend is low due to the lower severe weather threat and the rainfall being beneficial with no hydro impacts anticipated at this time. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 18z Wednesday...VFR conditions at all terminals as of 1:15 PM EDT should prevail through the next few hours. Then, chances for scattered showers/thunderstorms increase later this afternoon and evening. Confidence remains fairly low on coverage of showers/storms, but we did attempt to narrow down the timing of showers/storms from the previous TAF issuance. Given current observations and trends, GFL still has the best chance to see a shower/storm, but chances for ALB/PSF/POU look slightly lower than when the 12z TAFs were issued, so we have made some adjustments to tempo and prob30 groups to reflect this. Gusty winds and IFR vsbys possible with any showers/storms. Showers/storms come to and end this evening by 00-02z. Then, mainly VFR conditions through the first half of the night with SCT to BKN mid-level clouds. Cigs trend down to MVFR at ALB/GFL/PSF for the second half of the night. If any of these terminals see a shower/storm with appreciable rainfall this evening, then some localized fog/mist and IFR conditions can't be ruled out later tonight. Flying conditions trend back up to VFR for most of tomorrow morning, outside of a batch of showers that could bring some MVFR vsbys/cigs towards the end of the TAF period. Outlook... Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures(Year Set): Today April 14: Albany: 89(2023) Glens Falls: 84(2023) Poughkeepsie: 91(2023) Wednesday April 15: Albany: 86(2003) Glens Falls: 84(2003) Poughkeepsie: 84(2003) Thursday April 16: Albany: 91(2012) Glens Falls: 89(2002) Poughkeepsie: 91(2012) && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...15 AVIATION...35 CLIMATE...07  907 FXUS63 KGLD 141716 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1116 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Red Flag Warning is in effect for portions of the area Tuesday afternoon and evening, mainly along and south of I-70 where warm temps, low humidity and SW winds at 20-30 mph gusting to 45 mph may lead to rapid wildfire growth. - Breezy S to SW winds and critical fire weather possible over portions of the area, yet again, on Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 245 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Synoptic Overview: Shortwave energy approaching the 4-Corners early this morning will slowly/steadily track east across the central Rockies (tonight) and Central Plains (Wed). An associated lee cyclone will deepen over eastern CO and western KS today. The lee cyclone will broaden and weaken as it progresses eastward into central Kansas tonight and E-ENE into eastern Kansas and Nebraska on Wed. Today: Still a challenging forecast. A tightening MSLP to 850 mb height gradient and deep vertical mixing (up to 550-500 mb, ~12-14 KFT AGL) on the east and southeast periphery of the deepening lee cyclone will foster noticeably stronger SW winds over portions of the area, mainly east and south of Goodland during the mid-late afternoon and early evening when/where GFS, HRRR and RAP forecast soundings indicate that ~25-35 knot SW flow will be present throughout the mixed layer. Current guidance suggests that relatively stronger (~35-45 knot) SW flow will largely be confined along/south of Hwy 96 (Tribune/Leoti). Again, the northern extent/magnitude of SW winds (and more robust critical fire weather conditions) will highly depend on the precise evolution of the lee cyclone, which will track directly the NWS Goodland county warning area this aft-eve. In this particular pattern/setup, guidance continues to indicate that precipitation chances will be far less dependent on the precise evolution of the lee cyclone, i.e. most, if not all, of the Goodland CWA will thoroughly be situated within the dry slot. Simulated reflectivity forecasts from current and recent (00/06Z) runs of the HRRR and NAM NEST do suggest that meager (100-250 J/kg) high-based instability will support the development of scattered high-based convection along the Colorado Front Range and portions of the Palmer Divide (west of Limon) at peak heating this afternoon. Deep SW steering flow will, however, shephard activity toward the northeast (largely parallel-to the Goodland CWA), limiting already-limited precip chances to northern portions of Yuma County ~22-02Z (4-8 pm MDT). Tonight-Wed: Shortwave energy traversing the Colorado Front Range may emerge in the form of a modest, compact upper low.. and an ephemeral surface-850 mb reflection.. late tonight and early Wed morning. If this is the case, focused upper forcing and localized low-level convergence/frontogenesis in vicinity of the surface-850 mb low could facilitate the development of precip/showers over portions of northeast CO between midnight and sunrise (~06-12Z Wed). At present, convection allowing guidance suggests that any such activity would largely be confined to the I-76 corridor, possibly as far east as norther Yuma County. Scattered Cu and virga (maybe a shower or two) will accompany the upper wave as it progresses east across northwest KS and southwest NE during the day on Wed. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 208 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Upper-level troughing appears to be favored across the Western United States Thursday morning. Lee cyclogenesis is favored to take place across the North-Central High Plains through the afternoon. Additionally, GEFS guidance suggests an 850-mb high pressure will exist across the Southeastern United States, and back into Mexico and Baja California. These two features look to establish southerly to southwesterly surface flow across the forecast region Thursday afternoon, yielding warm and dry conditions. Forecast highs are currently in the mid-70s to mid-80s, with relative humidities (RH) in the upper single- digits to lower-teens. Critical fire weather conditions may be a concern during the afternoon and evening hours, with wind gusts forecast in the 25-40 mph range across most of the CWA. NBM guidance suggests over a 40% chance for wind gusts to meet criteria for critical fire weather conditions across most locations in the forecast region, with over a 90% chance across portions of Eastern Colorado. Further, LREF guidance suggests over a 90% chance for RH values to meet criteria for the hazard across portions of Eastern Colorado and West-Central Kansas during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Higher end scenarios would be associated with a stronger central low pressure across portions of Eastern Wyoming and Montana, and the Western Dakotas. Confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed Thursday afternoon is currently highest for portions of Eastern Colorado, around 30%. The upper-level trough from the west looks to move across the forecast region Friday, pushing a surface low pressure across the Central High Plains eastward. A strong cold front is favored to begin traversing the forecast region sometime between the afternoon and evening hours. Critical fire weather conditions are possible ahead of the cold front, though a slower eastward progression of the surface low would be required. About 60% of GEFS and EC members are in line with a slower cold front, which could be associated with some critical fire weather conditions across portions of West- Central Kansas and East Central Colorado. However, the 40% of members that show a faster cold front would mitigate the risk across this zone. A freeze, along with some snowfall may also be experienced with this cold front. Current forecast guidance suggests low temperatures in the lower-20s to lower-30s across the forecast region Friday night, with a 40-55% chance of light snow across portions of Eastern Colorado, far Southwest Nebraska, and far Northwest Kansas. NBM guidance suggests a 30-45% chance for the snowfall to be measurable (>0.1 inches) across this zone, with over a 75% chance for sub-freezing temperatures across most of the forecast area Friday night (nearly a 100% chance across portions of West Kansas, far Southwest Nebraska, and Eastern Colorado). Cooler conditions may continue into Saturday, with forecast high temperatures in the mid-50s to mid-60s during the afternoon. Critical fire weather conditions may be experienced Saturday afternoon as well, though is highly in question considering the lower temperatures. LREF guidance suggests about a 40-60% chance for RH values to meet critical fire weather criteria Saturday afternoon across most of Northwest Kansas and Eastern Colorado. By Sunday morning, upper-level troughing looks to be fully off to our east, with upper-level ridging approaching from the Western United States. This pattern favors a return of warm and dry conditions through the end of the forecast period Monday afternoon. Forecast high temperatures are in the low to mid-70s and upper-70s to lower-80s Sunday and Monday respectively. Relative humidities may drop into the low to mid-teens both Sunday and Monday, but is currently more confined to Eastern Colorado, far Southwest Nebraska, and far Northwest Kansas on Monday, as GEFS guidance indicates that the 850-mb high across Mexico and Baja California may erode and allow a better moisture return from the Gulf of America. Forecast wind gusts in the 25-40 mph range both days may indicate further risks for critical fire weather conditions. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1113 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A warm front is forecast to retreat through each terminal this afternoon which will lead to a period of light and variable winds; the front is forecast to move through GLD enough that winds are forecast to become a bit more southwesterly with gusts around 25 knots. A developing low pressure system late this afternoon and evening will lead to increase rain chances and continued breezy winds, before the breezy winds develop LLWS will be a concern. Rain chances at favored at KMCK Wednesday morning. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for KSZ013>016-027>029-041-042. CO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ253-254. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Vincent LONG TERM...Davis AVIATION...Trigg  534 FXUS64 KMRX 141717 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 117 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 115 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Well above normal temperatures expected through this week into the first half of the weekend. Record highs are possible. - Chance of showers Thursday evening, but light amounts will mean little relief from the worsening drought and fire weather conditions. - Increasing confidence of showers with a cold front passage Saturday night/Sunday morning, followed by cooler temperatues next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 115 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Hot and dry conditions continue to be the main weather story for the area, thanks to a large ridge of high pressure over the Gulf and SE CONUS. Today and Wednesday, high temperatures will be close to record highs with a SW flow, subsidence under the ridge, and limited cloud cover. Low RH values will be of concern for fire weather interests, bottoming out in the 25-35% range both today and Wednesday for most locations, but for the most part SW winds will not be higher than the 5-15 mph range. The mid/upper ridge axis gets pushed east on Thrusday as a shortwave trough approaches from the west. This system brings a chance of showers Thursday evening, but weak dynaimc forcing and limited moisture will result in light QPF amounts (< 0.1 on average) and little impact on the ongoing drought conditions and wildfires. There is some elevated instability that will support some thunderstorms, mainly in our Plateau counties. The ridge will build back Friday behind the exiting shortwave trough. High temperatures will be approaching records again on Friday and Saturday. Better rain chances may arrive for Saturday night into Sunday as models show a deep trough developing over the Plains that could push a cold front through our area. Model agreement, run-to-run consistency, and jet-induced dynamic forcing lead to increasing confidence of rain chances. Behind the front, cooler temperatures are expected as highs should be closer to normal, or slightly below, for Sunday and Monday. Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 04-14 87(2010) 86(1887) 85(1938) 88(2017) 04-15 87(2006) 87(1936) 85(1945) 86(2024) 04-16 89(2002) 87(1896) 87(2002) 88(2002) 04-17 91(1955) 90(1896) 85(2002) 88(1955) 04-18 90(2002) 90(1896) 87(2002) 89(2002) && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 115 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Winds through the afternoon will be 10-15 kt with some gusts up to 20 kt, decreasing around 23-00Z. Southwest winds tomorrow will be lighter, mainly 5-10 kt. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 59 88 60 87 / 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 59 86 60 85 / 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 57 86 58 85 / 0 0 0 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 55 84 58 84 / 0 0 0 10 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...DGS AVIATION...DGS  650 FXUS66 KHNX 141718 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 1018 AM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A gradual warming and drying trend expected this week with near seasonal to slightly above average temperatures. 2. Another low system brings strong winds and a risk for thunderstorms Thursday within the Sierra Nevada Mountains. 3. An elevated risk for fire starts exists by the end of this week in eastern Kern County due to low humidity and increased winds. && .DISCUSSION... Calm conditions prevail within the San Joaquin Valley today and tomorrow as the low pressure system exits out towards the east. With this exit, drier and warmer conditions will prevail until Thursday. By then, another trough skirts through Northern California and into Nevada. This will bring windy conditions to the Mojave Desert Slopes and the Sierra Nevada Mountain crest. There is high confidence (65-90 percent probability) along the Mojave Desert Slopes and a medium confidence (40-50 percent probability) for these areas to reach gusts 55 mph or higher. Friday into the weekend will have temperatures begin to climb back up again. Friday, expect temperatures to range from the low 70's (90 percent chance and best case scenario) to the high 70's (10 percent chance and worst case scenario) within the valley. The foothills will be much more mild as it ranges from the low to mid 60s through the low 70's. As we go into Saturday, the valley will be above normal temperatures once again. Expect the range of temperatures to be the high 70's (90 percent chance) through the mid 80's (10 percent chance). There is another trough that is coming through on Monday, which will help drop those temperatures down once again. However, there is low confidence regarding where the trough will hit. For now, the current runs are hinting at more precipitation and thunderstorm chances within the foothills and the Sierra Nevada. The confidence regarding the next system will increase over the next few days. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions expected across the area for the next 24 hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Calm conditions Tuesday and Wednesday. By Thursday, windy conditions through Eastern Kern County. Expect gusts upwards of 40 mph with sustained winds around 20 mph coming from the north west. Minimal RH values throughout Eastern Kern County over the weekend and continued gusty conditions have triggered an elevated risk for fire starts. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ public...BB aviation....BB fire weather...BB weather.gov/hanford  648 FXUS64 KOUN 141718 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1211 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Strong to severe thunderstorms possible Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday. - Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will return several days this week, especially across portions of northwestern and far western Oklahoma. - Dry and cooler weather this weekend. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Tuesday) Issued at 221 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Drier air will again overspread parts of western and northern Oklahoma today, as a dryline mixes eastward. Naturally, models differ with the position of this feature. We will convert the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning for six counties across northwestern Oklahoma. This area will likely see humidity fall to around 20 percent by mid afternoon with strong wind gusts to 40 mph. There's also the potential for a few high-based showers across this area during the afternoon. Lightning is unlikely, but they could enhance wind gusts. Unlikely yesterday, there will be better upper-level support in the form a lead shortwave trough. This will bring better chances of thunderstorm development along and near a dryline by mid to late afternoon. There will likely be more mid to high clouds that arrive during the day which will limit insolation. Despite this, models suggest near surface instability of at least 2500 J/kg east of the dryline. Instability and deep layer shear is expected to be sufficient for supercell storms with a risk of very large hail and damaging winds. Thunderstorms that develop will move rather quickly to the northeast (30-40 mph) && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday night through Thursday night) Issued at 221 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Thunderstorms are expected to continue into at least the early to mid evening hours with a continued risk of severe weather, especially with any supercells. There should be a lull in thunderstorm develop from the late evening into parts of the overnight hours. However, the main upper trough will be approaching far West Texas Wednesday morning. Model guidance indicates showers and storms may develop by sunrise across portions of southern within an area of mid-level convergence. Confidence in this is not high, but certainly possible. Thunderstorm development during the day Wednesday should be earlier based on the position and movement of the upper trough. A more eastern position of a dryline, should limit severe chance across western Oklahoma and parts of western north Texas. However, central and eastern parts of Oklahoma may be impacted by another round of severe storms by early to mid afternoon. Most of the thunderstorms that form Wednesday afternoon should end by mid to late evening. Most of the day Thursday will be dry. However, near-critcal fire weather conditions may emerge across western Oklahoma and western north Texas Thursday afternoon. Afternoon highs are expected to warm into the upper 80s and lower 90s with afternoon humidity approaching 10-15 percent. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 221 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 On Friday, surface low pressure will deepen quickly, as an upper trough moves across the central and northern Rockies. How far east drier air will mix into far western Oklahoma during the afternoon is uncertain. However, there is the potential for a small area of near- critical to critical fire weather conditions across far western Oklahoma and northern Texas. The bigger story will be the potential for supercell storms to develop along and near a dryline during the afternoon and evening. Better forcing across the northern half of Oklahoma should favor better storm coverage. Still a lot of detail to be worked out, but Friday has the potential for rather impactful storms. Additional storms will likely form along a cold front which is expected to move across most of the area Friday evening and night. The front is expected to push well to our south and east on Saturday, so much of the upcoming weekend is expected to be dry with highs in the 60s to lower 70s. A southerly wind is expected to increase on Monday with most areas remaining dry. The exception may be a few showers across southern Oklahoma. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1211 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 One or more waves of storms is expected to develop in western Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas this afternoon, and progress eastward (with northeastward storm motions) through the evening. Keeping prob30s for now given the line is expected to be broken and there remain some uncertainties in timing. Clouds are remaining more persistent then previously expected, but some lifting is still expected. As on previous mornings, MVFR stratus will develop again in the morning up toward I-44 and along I-35. Winds will remain southerly and mostly gusty, aside from a wind shift in northwest Oklahoma toward morning. Day && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 66 79 59 85 / 60 70 30 0 Hobart OK 63 85 53 90 / 60 50 20 0 Wichita Falls TX 67 83 59 89 / 70 60 20 0 Gage OK 56 83 48 89 / 20 20 10 0 Ponca City OK 66 80 56 84 / 50 70 40 0 Durant OK 67 78 64 86 / 50 80 60 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004-005-009- 010-014-021. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...06 SHORT TERM...06 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...14  309 FXUS63 KLMK 141719 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 119 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Well-above normal temperatures continue throughout the upcoming week. A few temperature records may be in jeopardy today, tomorrow, and Friday. * The next chance for widespread rainfall is expected Thursday. Most likely rainfall amounts range from 0.2-0.5" across the area. The chance for strong storms is relatively low, but cannot be ruled out at this time. * A stronger cold front will bring a chance for showers and storms again on Saturday. Another low-end threat for strong storms exists with this system. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 351 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Today and Tonight... This morning, quiet and mild conditions are present across the Ohio Valley as high clouds from upstream convection pass over the region. There is a fairly notable west-to-east gradient in temperatures and dewpoints this morning as drier low-level air has filtered in over the Cumberland Plateau into east/east central KY this morning. Expect this gradient to hold through mid-morning before daytime heating and moisture advection helps to reduce the temperature and moisture gradient across the region. Today, the persistent large-scale pattern of southeast US upper ridging and western US troughing is expected to continue, with deep SW flow continuing from the Ohio Valley and points NW. Another breezy and warm day is expected today, with more sunshine allowing temperatures to warm 4-8 degrees above persistence, with highs expected in the mid 80s for most of the area. While we have a 35-45 kt 850mb jet over the region this morning, this should weaken later today, though we still expect SW winds of 10-15 mph and wind gusts of 20-25 mph across the area. For the majority of the area, there is a 90+% chance of dry weather today. However, HREF reflectivity paintballs do show a few showers trying to develop across the Bluegrass later this morning. Additionally, upstream convection over central IL/IN may approach our northern and northeast zones, mainly northeast of a line from Salem, IN to Paris, KY. There is only a 10- 20% chance of a storm in these areas, but if upstream convection was able to provide enough forcing for convective initiation, 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and 30 kt of bulk shear could support a conditional strong storm with gusty winds and hail. Dry weather should continue across the area tonight, with the axis of showers and storms expected to remain well northwest of the region. Lows will be mild again Wednesday morning in the 60s in most locations. Wednesday and Wednesday Night... Another warm and breezy day is expected on Wednesday with only small changes expected to the overall pattern. A shortwave disturbance over the Rockies today will eject into the Plains by Wednesday afternoon, with more waves of showers and storms expected from the Plains into the Great Lakes. Some erosion of the upper level ridge will begin tomorrow, which could allow successive waves of convection to get closer to our southern IN counties. There is a 20- 30% chance for precipitation along and north of the river Wednesday; however, a lot of the chance that does exist is dependent on upstream convection, so confidence is low. Otherwise, temperatures should once again rise into the 80s across the area tomorrow. If mid- and high-level clouds are less prevalent than expected, upper 80s would be possible, especially across southern/southeastern KY. Highs should be within 1-3 degrees of daily records. Wednesday night into Thursday morning, additional erosion of the upper ridge should allow showers and storms to approach the area from the west. Current most-likely timing has precipitation arriving west of I-65 around sunrise Thursday, so Wednesday night should remain dry. Near-persistence forecast on low temps is expected, with most areas falling into the 60s Thursday morning. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 351 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Thursday - Friday Night... Thursday continues to look like the next good chance for rain across the area as the above-mentioned upper-level shortwave slides across the region. Showers and a few embedded thunderstorms should move from west to east across southern IN and central KY during the day, with the relatively diffuse forcing likely resulting in multiple waves of precipitation. Machine learning severe convection guidance shows a modest signal (5-15% chance) for strong storms Thursday, and model soundings suggest that ample cloud cover and deep saturation may limit instability. Still, a few strong storms can't be ruled out, with gusty winds and small hail being the main hazards. Ensemble mean rain amounts with Thursday's chance range from a few tenths across Lake Cumberland and the I-75 corridor to around 0.50" in southwest IN/western KY, so it's unlikely that we'll be able to make much of a dent in the drought across south central KY. Temperatures on Thursday should be less warm given the extra clouds and precipitation, with highs generally ranging from 75-80. Shower/storm chances are expected to diminish from west to east Thursday night as upper ridging builds back into the region from the southwest Friday morning. Warmer temperatures and mostly dry weather should return on Friday, with highs again forecast in the low-to-mid 80s. A band of increasing SW flow will nose into the mid-Mississippi Valley Friday afternoon and evening, with this warm advection wing potentially initiating showers and storms Friday night into Saturday morning. At this time, there is a 20-30% chance for showers/storms west of I-65 Friday night, and some strong upstream convection could spill into the area; however, it is still more likely that we remain dry into early Saturday morning. Saturday into Early Next Week... During the day on Saturday, an amplifying upper trough over the Plains will push across the Mississippi Valley, bringing a cold front into the region sometime between Saturday afternoon and early Sunday morning. Saturday should be our last very warm day in this stretch, with highs expected in the upper 70s and low-to-mid 80s. With the sfc low pressure center ejecting well to the north into the Great Lakes, our chance for showers and storms Saturday should come along and just ahead of the cold front, so FROPA timing will be key to shower/storm chances Saturday into Saturday night. Over the past few model runs, a slightly faster trend has been noted in this system, with the highest precipitation chances (60-70%) now occurring in the afternoon hours. A downward trend in PoPs is now featured after sunset Saturday, with winds swinging around from the SW to the W/NW with cold FROPA. The severe setup on Saturday is somewhat similar to Thursday in that instability will be less impressive than areas upstream on Friday due to deep saturation and cloud cover, although forcing along the well-defined cold front will be stronger. Machine learning guidance is relatively similar, showing a 5-15% chance for strong storms across the area. Would also expect similar threats as Thursday, with gusty winds and small hail possible in any stronger storms. Behind the cold front, robust cold advection should send temperatures back to near/slightly-below seasonable levels for Sunday into early next week. Upper troughing is expected to linger across the east coast of the US through early next week, leaving the Ohio Valley under a NW flow pattern. This should bring cool/seasonable temperatures and dry weather for the period Sunday through next Tuesday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 118 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR weather is ongoing this afternoon with a mix of diurnal cu and upper level clouds. Winds are gusting up to 25kts, but these are expected to subside by this evening. Otherwise, there remains a low chance for a shower or storm to pass by SDF/LEX this afternoon, but confidence remains too low to include in TAF at this time. Overnight, scattered upper level clouds will continue to stream across the region. A LLJ will be located to our northwest, but could support very brief and marginal LLWS. VFR continues tomorrow. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CSG LONG TERM...CSG AVIATION...CJP  048 FXUS63 KFSD 141721 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 1221 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy and locally dense fog continues through this morning. Visibility below one mile in dense fog. Fog dissipates later this morning. - Periodic chances (20-60%) for showers and thunderstorms continue this week. Isolated strong to severe storms are possible late this afternoon through Wednesday east of Iowa/Minnesota Highway 60, although confidence is low in potential. - Elevated to near critical fire danger is expected Thursday with a break from rainfall, much warmer temperatures, strong winds, and low humidity. Winds may lead to elevated conditions Friday, although shower and storm chances may temper concerns. && .UPDATE... Issued at 329 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Fog and very low stratus continue to develop early this morning. So far, most visibility has remained above 2 miles outside the Chamberlain area (where visibility at the time of the discussion is down to around 1/4 SM). Model probabilities do show moderate (30- 60%) chances areas along the Buffalo Ridge and across northwestern IA to fall below 1 mile through this morning so will continue to monitor for potential headlines. Fog should mix out through the morning hours. Also seeing some returns on radar out across central SD, but have not seen any precipitation reports, likely due to the stout dry layer between the mid clouds and the surface/stratus. Forecast remains on track for the rest of today and into Wednesday. SPC has expanded the Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk back toward IA/MN State Hwy 60 for both today and Wednesday. Some uncertainty in development and timing, as guidance still mostly keeps the better forcing off to the southeast. However, recent runs of larger scale deterministic models are shifting the surface and low level fronts further north today, shifting that instability axis with it. Additionally, storms will need to overcome the cap once again. Storms late today may move out of eastern NE into our forecast area, and would be capable of large hail to 1.5 inches (ping-pong ball sized) and wind gusts to 65 mph. If there is a low level or surface boundary in play, a tornado is possible. Can't rule out a stronger storm into Tuesday night. For Wednesday, will have to wait and see how today plays out with convection with the better instability again off to our south and east. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 238 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Scattered thunderstorms are set to develop over the next few hours, bringing the potential for a few severe storms with large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two. As of 2 pm, a surface low is located over northern Nebraska with a warm front extending northeast of it across far southeastern South Dakota into northwest Iowa. Dew points in the 60s have been gradually spreading northward, and these higher dew points are expected to reach the I-90 corridor over the next couple of hours. This boundary will be the focus of initial storm development, with these storms having access to 35-50 kts of effective bulk shear and 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. There are questions though on how much some high clouds have limited the area from reaching full heating potential, but if a storm can get going then steep mid level lapse rates of 7.5-8.5 degrees C/km and mostly straight, elongated hodographs will favor large hail to around 2 inches in diameter or larger. The secondary threat will be damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph. If a storm can get rooted to the aforementioned surface warm front, then a tornado or two will also be possible. Can't rule out a strong tornado either, primarily over southwest Minnesota. As the low pressure system drift across the area, a few additional showers and storms look to develop farther south across northwest Iowa (down to about IA Highway-3, or just north of US Highway-20) within the warm sector around sunset. These storms could also be on the strong to severe side, with an isolated instance of quarter sized hail and 60 mph as the threats. Showers and storms will exit off to our east by the mid evening hours, leaving mostly quiet conditions in its wake. A few showers may develop in central South Dakota prior to daybreak Tuesday, but dry air should win out and prevent most if not all of this from reaching the ground. Patchy fog will also be possible by early Tuesday morning across portions of northwest Iowa and southwest Minnesota as winds turn light and variable overnight and ample moisture remains in place. Temperatures tonight drop mainly in the 40s, though some 50s are possible in our easternmost areas. Low chances for showers continue into the day on Tuesday, but activity is expected to remain spotty at best as rain continues to battle a dry sub cloud layer. Highs will range from the 60s northwest to 70s southeast. Rain chances look to increase Tuesday night into Wednesday as two shortwave troughs impact our area. The best chances of rain and storms look to be over northwest Iowa and adjacent areas of Nebraska, South Dakota, and Minnesota. At this time, severe weather looks unlikely with this system as the better instability looks to be off to our south and east. Rain and storms exit off to our east by Wednesday night, leading to a dry Thursday. Winds look to increase on Thursday especially west of I-29 closer to a deepening surface low, and winds may take on a southwesterly component especially in south central South Dakota. This could lead to another day with higher fire danger as temperatures will be warm and relative humidity values drop to 25% or below mainly along and west of the James River. Still some uncertainty into how breezy the winds will be, so keep up to date with the latest forecast. Not too much time to look into the extended forecast given the near term severe weather threat, but guidance is in fairly good agreement that the western trough will begin to move into our area by the end of the work week/early weekend. This could bring more rain and storms to our area on Friday and then colder weather into Saturday as guidance indicates a stronger push of cold air advection behind this system. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1218 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions expected this afternoon into this evening with northerly winds turning light and variable into tonight. A few thunderstorms will move towards the Highway 20 corridor in northwest Iowa by daybreak into Wednesday morning, though uncertainty remains on just how far north these storms will make it. Enough confidence to at least include a PROB30 group at KSUX for -TSRA, but trends will be monitored. Winds will remain mostly light and variable into the day on Wednesday. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...SG DISCUSSION...Samet AVIATION...Samet  802 FXUS61 KBGM 141721 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 121 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Added more chances of precipitation for this morning into late morning just in case the line of showers and thunderstorms move through earlier in the day. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Threat for strong to severe thunderstorms today and tomorrow, with isolated hail and strong wind gusts possible along with heavy rain. 2) The warm pattern through the week will break down this weekend and be replaced by much colder air late in the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... The next couple of days will be warm and humid for this time of the year with 30+ knots of shear so there will be chances for some stronger thunderstorms today and tomorrow. The synoptic forcing today is very week with just a subtle 500 mb shortwave passing through so that likely will not be the main driver of the convection but will help supply the shear (35-45 knots) and steeper mid level lapse rates of around 7 C/km. Looking at what happened today in the plains, there was a cluster of supercells that developed in NW Kansas that has developed into an MCS early this morning. This was something that no models had today and even the 0Z models have struggled to handle its evolution. Given that these storms are associated with the mid level wave passing through today, it leads to less confidence in how the evolution of the storms will be today. The HRRR has trended towards an earlier line as the subsequent runs after the 0Z run have slowly started to resolve the MCS a bit better. If this does end up being the case, we may have a line of thunderstorms move through in the morning which would occur before the best CAPE development and would help stabilize the atmosphere leading to a lower end potential. Given the shear in place, a few isolated strong gusts to 50 or 60 mph would be possible with the late morning line of storms. It is possible that the rain moves through early enough for some destabilization in the mid to late afternoon though by then, the steeper mid level lapse rates are moving east. Tomorrow is unfortunately a similar story as today in regards to how the storms may evolve. The synoptic forcing is once again weak with the primary driver of the mid level shortwave is going to be the development of MCS's in the plains this afternoon and overnight. Still, models are in better agreement that there will be more CAPE tomorrow (>1000J/kg of surface cape) and better shear (>40 knots of 0-6 km shear) so if the timing of the mid level wave that triggers the storms is early to mid afternoon, strong thunderstorms are likely and isolated supercells are possible. We will still be in this warm SW flow pattern with frequent shortwaves on Thursday. Models do have more showers and better forcing so that looks to limit CAPE but still will need to be watched with 40+ knots of shear still present. KEY MESSAGE 2... While this warm, early summer like pattern persist through the first half of the weekend, Sunday into early next week has continued to trend cooler. High latitude blocking in Greenland will help a deep late season trough to dig into the Northeast US. The GFS and AIGFS both are bringing 516 to 520 dm 500 mb heights which is well below climatology for mid to late April. 850 mb temperatures also have a high probability of <-5C temperatures for Monday into Tuesday next week, with probabilities >80% for the region and >95% for CNY and north. With the Great Lakes likely warming up some over the rest of this week, it is possible they would be warm enough to generate lake effect snow with this pattern. -10C 850 mb temperature probabilities are even getting to near 50% for the Southern Tier and north and if that occurs, our day time highs may stay in the 30s to low 40s early next week. As of now, the pattern with the cold is looking dry (outside of lake effect) so despite the cold, a widespread snow event is unlikely at this time. There is still time for the pattern to change as the evolution of the Greenland blocking pattern is all over the place but a cooler stretch of weather is likely, just how cold will it get is uncertain. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and move west to east across central NY. Timing looks to be in the 19-00Z range. Included TEMPOS to account for the scattered nature and slight timing uncertainity with any thunderstorms. Any potential for thunderstorms decreases sharply after 00Z. High confidence at KRME and KSYR for the formation of MVFR/IFR ceilings overnight with a lower potential at KITH and KBGM. Any ceiling restrictions should lift out between 12-16Z Wednesday. Outlook: Wednesday afternoon through Friday...Restrictions possible from showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Saturday...Additional restrictions look to arrive along with showers and storms late in the day Saturday. Sunday... Restrictions possible from showers. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AJG AVIATION...MWG  493 FXUS63 KMKX 141722 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1222 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Significant severe weather event remains forecast this afternoon & evening (peak intensity 3-10 PM). All severe weather hazards, including very large hail greater than golf ball size and tornadoes, are possible. Seek immediate shelter if a warning is issued for your area later today. - Additional severe storms possible Wednesday afternoon if a front remains stalled across the area. If the front sets up south of the area, severe potential will greatly decrease. - Heavy rainfall could lead to additional periods of flooding this afternoon into Wednesday. Additional Flood Watches are possible. - Additional windows for heavy rainfall, flooding, and severe thunderstorms Friday into Saturday. All severe hazards will be possible later Tuesday afternoon into the evening. && .UPDATE... Issued 1209 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Morning mesoanalysis and surface observations depict excellent southerly return flow over the Upper MS Valley. Surface level warming and moistening ahead of an approaching surface low near Omaha has led to dew points in the upper 60s to 70 degrees amid air temperatures in the upper 70s over eastern IA and NW IL. This warming and moistening is expected to prime our severe environment this afternoon as the air mass advects northward. Additionally, lingering cloud cover has dampened any mixing and drying of the boundary layer, which will further aid our low level instability. 12Z runs of the CAMs have depicted storms forming perhaps a bit farther west than previously forecast, with storms now forming along and just west of the Mississippi Valley and then tracking east into southern WI this afternoon. There also seems to be a dampening of the signal for storms along the lake breeze this afternoon. Otherwise, the environment these storms will move into remains relatively unchanged from previous runs. The ingredients will be marked by moderate to high instability of >3000 J/kg SBCAPE amid effective shear of 50 knots, with mid level lapse rates >7 C/km. Initial storms will be discrete supercells and will be explosive. Low level 0-3km CAPE will be in excess of 100 J/kg with low level turning in the hodographs. These supercells will support all severe hazards and sig tor threat from initiation during the mid afternoon into the early evening as they track over southern WI. As the evening progresses, there may be some tendency for storms to conglomerate into a line and sink southeast, mainly between 7PM and 10PM, but a strengthening LLJ will support larger hodograph curvature and the tornado threat may transition from supercellular to QLCS. The SPC maintained an enhanced risk for this afternoon with their 1630Z update, but have gone ahead and broadened the CIG 2 contour over pretty much all of our CWA for both its tornado and hail categories. This delinates a 30% chance for a tornado of EF2 or greater today, and a 25% chance of seeing hail greater than or equal 2 inches in diameter within 25 miles of any point over southern Wisconsin. CMiller && .SHORT TERM... Issued 1220 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Tonight through Tuesday night: A line of thunderstorms will roll through the forecast area over the next few hours, as low pressure approaches along a stalled frontal boundary. The main threat through 2-4 am will be damaging winds, though an isolated tornado will be possible. Given sustained instability overnight along with WSW 0-3 km shear around 40 knots, any storm line segments that become more north/south oriented could bow out increasing the wind threat and also producing a QLCS tornado threat. The flooding concern remains overnight as well, as the line of storms across the northern forecast area slowly sags southward tonight, with some back building currently evident over southeast MN and northeast IA. Storms may linger in the southeast forecast area towards around daybreak, with dry weather then likely through the morning hours. Attention then turns to another severe storm threat during the afternoon and evening hours. The stalled frontal boundary will be set up around the far northern forecast area in the afternoon, as another weak surface low and shortwave approach from the west. Plenty of instability is expected across at least the south half of the forecast area, with surface based CAPE of at least 3000 J/KG. Additionally, wind profiles look more than sufficient for severe storms as a 45 kt LLJ noses from the south by late afternoon. All severe hazards will be possible as storms initialize between 3 and 6 pm, with a decent chance for supercell development. Storms will likely eventually organize into line or two, with the severe threat leaning more towards wind and QLCS tornado at that point. Locally heavy rainfall and flooding will be a concern as well, especially if storms roll through the same areas that received the heavier rainfall the last couple days. Adding to this concern as that some of the latest models do show that a line of storms may set up west to east across the southern half of the forecast area tomorrow night, with some training possible. DDV && .LONG TERM... Issued 1220 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Wednesday through Sunday: It is still looking like the frontal boundary could remain far enough north on Wednesday for another severe storm threat. This will somewhat depend on what happens Tuesday/Tuesday night and where the effective front ends up because of that round of storms. Overall though, there is enough confidence to continue to message a severe threat, with locally heavy rainfall also a concern again. Storms may linger Wednesday night into early Thursday, with a break in activity then likely Thu afternoon into at least Friday morning. Yet another round of storms is then possible Friday evening into Saturday morning as a cold front finally pushes through the region. The later timing of this front may somewhat diminish the severe threat, due to the better interaction with peak daytime heating Friday remaining to the west. Plenty of time though for timing to change, so this period remains worth keeping an eye on. Much cooler conditions are expected to settle into the area this weekend behind the departing low and cold front. Highs will likely struggle to get out of the 40s by Sunday. It looks mainly dry Sat afternoon through Sunday, though not out of the question for a few snowflakes in the north Sat night as a shortwave rolls through. DDV && .AVIATION... Issued 710 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR flight categories continue through this morning, with strong to severe storm development this afternoon. Reduced CIGs and VIS readings will accompany the storms. Quigley && .MARINE... Issued 1220 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Shower and thunderstorm activity is expected across lake Michigan late into tonight as low pressure of 29.6 inches over southeast Minnesota continues to head northeast. Winds will be easterly north of a frontal boundary across roughly the northern half of the lake, with southerly winds expected in the south. Then expecting another a couple passing low pressure system to develop in the Plains and track across Lake Michigan again on Tuesday and Wednesday. Each system will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms through the middle of the week. Areas of dense fog will likely occur at times due to a relatively mild and humid airmass over the cold waters paired with lighter winds. DDV && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...Dense Fog Advisory...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565- LMZ567-LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872 until 7 AM Wednesday. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee  875 FXUS61 KRNK 141722 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 122 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... 18Z Aviation discussion updated. A few showers/maybe a rumble of thunder possible this afternoon in southeast WV. No other major changes beyond this afternoon. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A strong upper level ridge will bring abnormal warmth for the next few days with record heat possible. 2. A cool down arrives by early next week as a cold front moves through the region. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: A strong upper level ridge will bring abnormal warmth for the next few days with record heat possible. Slight increase in instability and minor shortwave passing across the mid-Atlantic may bring a few showers to southeast WV this afternoon but coverage looks isolated with better coverage further north/west. A rumble of thunder also possible. Otherwise, still looking at strong upper ridge over the southeast into Thursday, though models showing a decent shortwave trough arriving by Thursday night into Friday which could bring at least some showers/few storms to the mountains with less coverage east. Ridge rebuilds behind this system before the pattern changes early next week. So overall expecting above normal temperatures, though Friday could be cooler but still above normal compared to the rest of the week. See climate and fire weather sections below for details on records and fire danger. Key Message 2: A cool down arrives by early next week as a cold front moves through the region. Guidance is beginning to show hints of a cool down by late Sunday and into Monday next week as a strong cold front pushes through the region. If this occurs, this will bring an end to the record breaking heat that is expected to occur this week. Temperatures will fall back closer to April normals. Some rain will be possible with the frontal passage, but amounts appear to be light and unlikely to aid in helping with the current drought. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions through the TAF period. Wind will be WSW through the period, a few gusts 15-20kts possible this afternoon. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Mainly dry with VFR conditions into Saturday. There is a front/upper disturbance arriving Thu night-Friday that may bring showers and sub-VFR to the mountains. The pattern changes Sunday with a stronger front and better chance of showers and potential for sub-VFR cigs/vbsy. Winds behind this system will be gusty Sunday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Unusually warm and dry conditions will take place with record heat possible through Thursday. Rainfall chances appear low and remain confined to the mountains, which will only prolong the ongoing drought. Relative humidities will fall towards 20 to 30 percent for the next few afternoons, especially east of the Blue Ridge. Some southern-facing slopes may have relative humidities drop below 20 percent with afternoon sunshine and gusty winds due to an unstable atmosphere from the increasing heat. These aforementioned conditions will escalate fire danger across the entire region. The anomalous heat and low humidity combined with daytime gusts will only make fire containment increasingly difficult throughout the rest of this week. The next notable chance for any widespread wetting rainfall may not come until Sunday when a cold front arrives to bring some relief. && .CLIMATE... The following record high maximums and record high minimums, or warmest lows, are in jeopardy due to the abnormal warmth over the next three days: Today: Station Hi Max T Hi Min T Roanoke 91 in 1945 67 in 1922 Lynchburg 91 in 1941 63 in 2014 Danville 91 in 1945 75 in 1922 Bluefield 83 in 1930 64 in 1977 Blacksburg 82 in 1941 60 in 1941 Wednesday: Station Hi Max T Hi Min T Roanoke 89 in 1936 67 in 2024 Lynchburg 89 in 1941 65 in 1896 Danville 91 in 2006 68 in 1922 Bluefield 89 in 1922 60 in 2006 Blacksburg 83 in 1941 57 in 1954 Thursday: Station Hi Max T Hi Min T Roanoke 90 in 2002 61 in 2017 Lynchburg 91 in 2002 65 in 1912 Danville 92 in 2002 64 in 1916 Bluefield 81 in 2012 66 in 2006 Blacksburg 82 in 1941 61 in 1941 && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...PW/WP/BG AVIATION...SH/WP FIRE WEATHER...PW/WP CLIMATE...PW/SH  285 FXUS62 KFFC 141724 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 124 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New 18Z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 102 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - A Fire Danger Statement is in effect for portions of north and central Georgia this afternoon and evening. Fire weather concerns will persist this week given the ongoing very dry and warm conditions. - Temperatures will remain well above normal through the weekend. Some could approach daily record highs by mid-week. - Appreciable rainfall is very unlikely through this coming weekend, so worsening drought conditions are expected. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 245 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The overall pattern will remain largely unchanged today and Wednesday, with the high pressure regime maintaining its hold over the region. 500 mb level ridging over the northern Gulf extending into the western Atlantic and associated surface high pressure underneath will gradually retrograde through the short term period. The ridge becoming more centered over the Southeast will keep any frontal boundaries and precipitation displaced well to the north of Georgia. The ridge aloft and southwesterly flow from the Gulf on the back side of the high will also promote continued warming. Low temperatures this morning will be in the mid 50s to near 60s. Under mostly clear skies, high temperatures this afternoon will be 9-12 degrees above normal in central Georgia and 12-16 degrees above normal in north Georgia, rising into the mid to upper 80s. With very dry fuels and RH values dropping to between 25-30% this afternoon, a Fire Danger Statement is in effect once again across the forecast area this afternoon. By late Tuesday, the upper level synoptic pattern will reflect a classic omega-block pattern centered over the eastern CONUS, with deep troughing setting up on both sides of the aforementioned ridge. Low temperatures will begin Wednesday morning in the upper 50s and low 60s. Highs will be a few degrees warmer than today, climbing into the upper 80s and even low 90s in portions of east- central Georgia. Many locations across the forecast area could see new daily records be set on Wednesday and into the extended period. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 245 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Staying Warm and Dry for Most through Saturday: The long term period brings the potential for the persistent ridging pattern to finally weaken and thus the potential for rainfall across parts of the County Warning Area (CWA). Unfortunately, this pattern shift will very likely not support the coverage and amount of rainfall necessary to put a dent in the Severe Drought (D2) to Extreme Drought (D3) that covers much of the CWA. Ensemble guidance depicts a shortwave trough pushing across the Ohio River Valley and Mid-Atlantic over the course of Thursday and Friday. How much rain occurs here in north and central Georgia associated with this feature will depend on just how much the shortwave dampens when it interacts with the ridge and to what degree moisture associated with the shortwave is scoured out. Ensemble guidance suggests that Gulf moisture advection will be lacking, and when coupled with some semblance of ridging likely holding on across the Southeast, it seems likely that rain chances will remain low overall. Rain Chances and a Drop in Temperatures on Sunday? Ensemble guidance depicts the passage of a fairly stout longwave trough across the eastern CONUS late Saturday through late Sunday, although the individual ensembles (i.e. GEFS vs. EPS) vary regarding how far south the base of the trough swings. Such differences could impact how much moisture return occurs across the CWA, as well as the placement of favorable dynamics for storm organization/strength. At this time, rain chances are greatest (25% to 30%) north of the Atlanta metro area, with 15% to 20% rain chances across the Atlanta metro area and parts of central Georgia. Appreciable rainfall is highly unlikely, so worsening drought conditions are expected through the weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 102 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions prevail under mostly clear skies with FEW cu in the 5-7 kft range each day. Winds remain WSW to SW at 6-10 kts during afternoon, less than 5 kts to near calm overnight. //ATL Confidence...18Z Update... High confidence. RW && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 86 58 88 60 / 0 0 0 0 Atlanta 85 61 88 62 / 0 0 0 0 Blairsville 82 55 84 57 / 0 0 0 0 Cartersville 87 58 88 59 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 87 59 88 59 / 0 0 0 0 Gainesville 85 60 87 62 / 0 0 0 0 Macon 87 57 89 60 / 0 0 0 0 Rome 87 57 88 59 / 0 0 0 0 Peachtree City 86 57 88 59 / 0 0 0 0 Vidalia 89 60 91 61 / 0 0 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...King LONG TERM....Martin AVIATION...RW  537 FXUS64 KBRO 141725 AAB AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1225 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1219 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Key Messages: - Breezy conditions will continue this week. - A moderate risk of rip currents will likely to prevail through the week. - Temperatures will continue to warm through the week, with a cool down late this weekend. - Unsettled weather will return this weekend in association with a cold front moving through Texas. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1013 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 High pressure over the Gulf into the southeastern US will maintain warm, breezy, and dry conditions through the week. Temperatures will continue to warm, reaching the 90s for much of the region by Thursday. Coastal areas will remain in the upper 70s into the 80s. As we head into the weekend a cold front will move through Texas bringing with it another chance of rain and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon through Monday. The aforementioned front will move through Deep South Texas on Sunday which will also be the day for our highest rain chances (35-50%). Cooler temperatures are expected in wake of the front, with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s on Sunday and mid 80s on Monday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Partly cloudy skies will leave primarily VFR conditions for the rest of Tuesday afternoon and evening, although brief MVFR cannot be ruled out under patches of denser cloud cover around 3000 ft AGL. Southeasterly winds between 15 to 20 kts with gusts to 30 kts will continue into the evening. MVFR ceilings will build overnight and persist into Wednesday morning. Winds decrease overnight, with gusts around 20 kt, before increasing again mid morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 1013 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Generally favorable marine conditions are expected on the waters off the lower Texas coast with moderate winds and wave heights. Could see some caution conditions each afternoon, mainly on the Laguna Madre and nearshore waters due to a locally enhanced pressure gradient. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 73 87 73 87 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 70 89 70 90 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 74 91 74 92 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 72 92 72 94 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 73 79 74 79 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 71 85 71 86 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...68 LONG TERM....68 AVIATION...69-HK  282 FXUS64 KEWX 141727 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1227 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated strong to severe possible across the southern Edwards Plateau and near the Rio Grande late this afternoon/evening. - Chance for isolated storms Wednesday north of I-10. - Warm and humid conditions to continue throughout the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 1234 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The atmospheric setup for Tuesday over South-Central Texas will be similar to Monday as moist southerly flow to southeasterly flow continues. Most should stay dry for much of the day beneath a steady capping inversion and a mix of partly to mostly cloudy skies. However, the combination of a weak mid-level shortwave ejecting out of Mexico and broader height falls from a slowly approaching upper- trough will provide a more lift, giving some additional support to isolated storms later in the day over western portions of the region and providing a more conducive environment for their longevity. These storms are expected to form mainly along the dry line over West Texas and Mexico in the late afternoon, potentially crossing into the southern Edwards Plateau or Rio Grande Plains near and after sunset. Edwards, Kinney, and Val Verde counties have the best shot at seeing storm activity, most likely between 5-10 PM. A few models show storms developing as far south as US-57, though those chances are more uncertain given stronger capping in that area. Continued synoptic ascent and a modest 30-kt low level jet could help sustain storms a little longer into the Hill Country, though weakening is expected overnight and the severe risk should lessen quickly by 12 AM midnight Wednesday before the remnant showers fade. Up to a Level 2 of 5 (Slight) risk for severe weather is highlighted, with storms presenting the typical risks for springtime West Texas supercells... large hail, strong winds, and perhaps a brief isolated tornado in the evening. The storms may also produce locally heavy rains, with a quick 1 to 3 inches possible. The broader upper-trough nears our area Wednesday. Most of the rising motion accompanying this disturbance will be displaced well to our north, but the overlap of warm/moist air with residual ascent over our area should facilitate another period of isolated thunderstorms. The hi-res models have not been very consistent with the placement of this activity, but the trough placement would tend to favor the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country during the afternoon to evening hours, with activity possibly extending into the Austin area and less of a potential south of the Balcones Escarpment. A marginal severe and excessive rain risk accompanies these storms. Daytime temperatures today and Wednesday remain roughly seasonably warm, with highs generally in the 80s for most. Afternoon clouds and moist air, along with southeasterly flow, are helping to prevent highs from building farther. However, that moist air is also keeping overnight temperatures unseasonably mild in the 60s to near 70. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 1234 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 After Wednesday's trough passes, an upper-level ridge should provide calmer weather Thursday and Friday. We'll likely see our warmest temperatures of the week during that period as the ridge shapes a warmer airmass over the area, bringing into the upper 80s and low 90s. Despite the quieter weather, it'll still be rather humid as dew points stay at or above the 90th percentile for the rest of the week. Southerly winds should be breezy on Friday in response to a developing low-pressure system over the Central Plains, which could see exposed and elevated terrain experiencing a 20-mph sustained wind during the afternoon with gusts to around 30 mph. An amplified trough is forecast to barrel out of the central Rockies into the Central Plains on Saturday. The deep meridional flow behind the trough is well-suited to bring a stout cold front into our area on Saturday. There will likely be storms along the front as it cycles through the warm Gulf air over South-Central Texas. Most of this activity is likely to be along and ahead of the front on Saturday, though the continued southwesterly flow should allow mid- level moisture to spill behind the front and leave behind some continued cloud cover and chances for showers through at least Monday. Substantially cooler air is expected behind the front. Should the front arrive on schedule, Saturday night and Sunday morning would bring crisp and drier conditions. The latest model average has lows in the 50s, but accounting for the blurriness of model blends at this range, lows in the mid to upper 40s would be reasonable to expect especially north of I-10, as reflected in the statistical guidance. Highs Sunday and Monday are forecast to be below average for mid-April, with highs in the 60s and 70s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 MVFR ceilings may linger for another hour over KSAT/KAUS and into the mid-afternoon for KDRT, though VFR conditions will be short- lived with redevelopment of MVFR to IFR ceilings again tonight into Wednesday morning. South to southeast wind may gust from 20-25 knots across the area through the evening. Models have been consistent in initiating storms near KDRT near 00Z today and have opted to include a TEMPO group for this possibility. Storm development may hinder the timing of low ceilings in the west tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 69 85 69 89 / 10 30 20 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 68 85 68 89 / 0 20 20 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 68 85 67 89 / 0 20 10 0 Burnet Muni Airport 67 81 66 85 / 20 50 30 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 69 86 69 89 / 60 20 10 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 68 82 67 88 / 10 30 30 0 Hondo Muni Airport 67 84 65 88 / 20 30 10 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 68 85 68 89 / 0 20 20 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 69 86 70 89 / 0 10 10 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 70 85 68 89 / 10 20 10 0 Stinson Muni Airport 70 86 70 90 / 0 20 10 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Tran LONG TERM....Tran AVIATION...27  975 FXUS64 KTSA 141728 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1228 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1146 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - A window for higher-end severe weather potential exists today into Wednesday. - Warm, humid, and breezy southerly flow continues for much of the week. Most days will have at least a low chance of precipitation. - Another chance of showers and thunderstorms, some potentially severe, is expected during the day Friday to Saturday before cooler air arrives behind a cold front. && .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight) Issued at 1146 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Warm and humid southerly flow remains in place across the area. Southerly winds will continue to gust to 25-35 mph today. High temperatures will remain well above normal (in the 80s). As upper level winds/lift from a positively tilted trough spread across the dry line later today, thunderstorms are expected to develop over central Oklahoma. These storms will then move northeast into the area. Initial storm formation will probably be in the late afternoon, moving into the forecast area during the evening. Most CAMs quickly show upscale growth into a line, or perhaps a few lines. This implies that an initial severe hail dominant threat will shift to wind dominant with time. This makes sense given the very large instability and favorable dynamics for robust cold pool development. A couple of tornados are also possible, particularly early on before cold pools become mature. Of course, if storms remain discrete for longer or into the evening when the LLJ ramps up, the tornado threat could end up higher than it currently appears. With continued forcing along the dry line, additional rounds of showers and storms are possible overnight. These storms may also be severe, but the threat will generally decline with time as well as the further east you go. Locally heavy rain may also occur. For these later rounds, the threat may start to sag south and east, but generally still in the northwest half of the forecast area. Low temperatures overnight will be in the 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Tuesday) Issued at 1146 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Warm and humid southerly flow will persist Wednesday, with the best lift from an approaching trough moving overhead. CAM guidance is fairly messy on Wednesday with multiple rounds of weaker storms developing through the day across the forecast area. The CAMS finally develop stronger storms in the afternoon and evening hours. It storms are too widespread and frequent earlier during the day, it could suppress severe weather in the evening. With that said, ample moisture, shear, and instability are all present. The potential is certainly there for severe weather even if failure modes also exist. Most likely, hail and wind will be the dominant threats, but like today, an couple of tornados remain possible as well. Upper level forcing will move east on Thursday with a reprieve from the stormy conditions. Highs will reach the mid 80s with humid and breezy conditions remaining in place. A strong cold front will push through the area Friday night into Saturday. The airmass will be quite moist and unstable. Hodographs look to be long and mostly straight. Given that the shear vector will be roughly parallel to the frontal forcing, storms should consolidate into lines, with damaging wind being the primary hazard. But since this is a few days away, this is just speculation for now. Much cooler and drier conditions are expected Sunday into early next week behind the front. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Thunderstorm impacts are likely at all terminals except FSM, with the main threat windows for NE OK this evening and again early Wed morning, for NW AR early Wed morning and for MLC mid to late Wed morning. IFR conditions and potential for VRB gusty winds will be most likely at the NE OK sites this evening. MVFR ceilings will expand Wed morning across all terminals, with a low chance of IFR in NW AR that is not mentioned for now. Gusty prevailing winds will exist at most sites through the entire period, with FSM the most likely to see more typical lower wind speeds and easterly directions overnight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 65 78 61 86 / 80 70 70 10 FSM 67 80 64 85 / 60 50 90 20 MLC 66 77 64 85 / 70 70 70 10 BVO 64 79 56 85 / 80 70 70 10 FYV 63 76 61 82 / 60 70 90 20 BYV 65 76 61 82 / 60 60 90 30 MKO 64 76 62 84 / 70 70 80 10 MIO 64 76 60 82 / 80 70 80 10 F10 65 77 62 85 / 70 70 70 10 HHW 65 78 64 84 / 40 60 70 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...06 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...22  721 FXUS61 KBOX 141728 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 128 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes, the forecast remains on track. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered late day and evening showers and thunderstorms with a low risk of severe weather. - Summerlike warmth continues Wednesday away from the coast, but backdoor front will bring cooler temps to portions of eastern MA. Another round of scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms with a low risk for severe weather. - Backdoor front may bring cooler temperatures Thu-Sat, especially in eastern MA, but uncertainty is high in exactly where it ends up. - More seasonable temperatures early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Scattered late day and evening showers and thunderstorms with a low risk of severe weather. Latest hi-res guidance has delayed onset of scattered convection moving into SNE to late in the day and this evening. We still have height rises into early afternoon then weak height falls developing late today and this evening as a weak shortwave passes to the north. There are favorable mid level lapse rates approaching 7 C/km and there is sufficient 0-6km shear for storm organization. However, instability is marginal with MLCAPES generally 500-1000 J/kg and with potential convection delayed into the evening instability will be diminishing. Also forcing for ascent is marginal as well. So while there are some conflicting signals for severe weather, if robust convection can get going to the north and west later this afternoon favorable deep layer shear should be enough to support a few strong to severe storms with the timing mainly from 5-10 pm across northern and western MA where HREF is showing some updraft helicity tracks. Strong to damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat but can't rule out some hail given steep mid level lapse rates and favorable deep layer shear. KEY MESSAGE 2...Summerlike warmth likely to continue Wednesday away from the coast, but backdoor front will bring cooler temps to portions of eastern MA. Another round of scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms with a low risk for severe weather. Backdoor front expected to slip southward into NE MA Wed morning and eventually move through rest of eastern MA by late afternoon but timing is uncertain. 925 mb temps 20-21C south and west of the boundary which will result in temps reaching low-mid 80s, especially across CT and portions of central/W MA which will remain on the warm side of the boundary. Meanwhile, temps will likely fall into the 50s in NE MA with temp forecast uncertainty highest across interior E and SE MA which will be close to the boundary. It is possible temps here warm well into the 70s and possibly lower 80s before the front moves through then falling sharply by late afternoon but this will depend on the timing of the front. Another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms expected Wed afternoon into the evening as another low amplitude shortwave approaches. Environment is fairly similar to today with MLCAPES 500- 1000 J/kg although mid level lapse rates are less favorable. 0-6 km shear is up to 40 kt which is quite favorable for storm organization. Hi-res CAMs do show varying areal coverage of convection developing into the afternoon in the interior then eventually becoming focused near the south coast during Wed night. CSU machine learning probs and Nadocast showing low risk for severe across the interior so can't rule out a few strong to severe storms again with damaging wind the primary threat. HREF severe wind probs are a bit lower tomorrow and focused across CT. KEY MESSAGE 3...Backdoor front may bring cooler temperatures Thu- Sat, especially in eastern MA, but uncertainty is high in exactly where is ends up. Temp forecast becomes more uncertain later this week, as short wave energy riding up and over the top of the subtropical ridge, may be strong enough to lower heights and have a backdoor front enter SNE, especially northeast MA. However, at this time range, low predictability regarding the amplitude of individual short waves and attending surface boundaries/backdoor fronts. Thus, certainly potential for big temperature busts this far out in time. Showers and thunderstorms could be more widespread Friday, as multi model guidance suggest a more robust mid level short wave moving across the Northeast into New England. KEY MESSAGE 4...More seasonable temperatures early next week. As expected, difficult to sustain temps 20+ degs warmer than normal in April, thus good multi model agreement (especially at this time range) that a strong cold front is expected to cross region sometime Sun, accompanied by some showers, that could spill into early Monday. Much cooler airmass follows behind front early next week, with temperatures returning to more typical levels for mid April, generally in 50s to around 60. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. This Afternoon and Tonight...Moderate confidence in areal coverage of TSRA and timing. VFR. A cold front brings hit-and-miss thunderstorms to areas across western New England late this afternoon into the early evening. This could lead to brief MVFR ceilings and IFR visibilities. It bank of low stratus/fog develops off the east coast of MA, which should remain off shore the first half of the night, before inching on shore early Wednesday morning, here flight categories fall to MVFR. SW to S wind today, periodically gusty 15-20 knots. Wind speeds ease overnight, becoming calm in protected areas. Wednesday and Wednesday Night... Moderate Confidence. Becoming VFR. A frontal boundary remains in the vicinity of SNE and have moderate confidence this remains across NE MA. North of the boundary MVFR with winds E to E. South of the boundary VFR and winds are SW. Showers and thunderstorms develop along the boundary between 18z-00z. Overnight becoming IFR to MVFR across most of the region, the only area that could remain low-end VFR is be the lower CT River Valley and points SW. Light southwest wind. KBOS Terminal... Moderate confidence in TAF. Have moderate confidence in the chance of TSRA and lower clouds Wednesday morning. Will have LLWS tonight between 02z-08z. KBDL Terminal... Moderate confidence in TAF. Have moderate confidence in the timing and coverage of TSRA this afternoon/evening. Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/... Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. SCA for outer southern waters through tonight for marginal seas. S- SW winds will gust to 20+ kt at times, shifting to E over NE MA waters during Wed with SW flow persisting over southern waters. Variable winds Wed night less than 20 kt, mostly N-NE over NE MA waters and SW over southern waters. Late night and early morning fog possible. Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/... Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. Saturday through Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. && .CLIMATE... Upcoming record highs: Tue 4/14 Boston 83 in 2023 Hartford 96 in 2023 Providence 87 in 2023 Worcester 90 in 2023 Wed 4/15 Boston 82 in 1896 Hartford 88 in 1941 Providence 82 in 1938 Worcester 85 in 1941 && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ254. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ255-256. && $$ DISCUSSION...KJC/Loconto AVIATION...Dooley MARINE...KJC CLIMATE...Nocera  806 FXUS65 KABQ 141728 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1128 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1116 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Hazardous crosswinds will create difficult travel for large and high-profile vehicles this afternoon and again Thursday and Friday mainly across eastern NM. - Critical fire weather threatening rapid fire spread from any new spark returns to NM today and Thursday mainly across northeastern and east-central NM, and a majority of the state Friday. - A hard freeze is forecast Friday night into Saturday morning across the western and northern third of NM. Take precautions to protect early blooming plants. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 1233 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Unsettled weather continues over the Desert Southwest, highlighted by a 557dm H5 low swirling just east of Las Vegas, NV tonight. Anchored by a sampled 95kt 250mb jetmax on its southeastern periphery, this upper low is bringing convective showers and high elevation snow across northeastern AZ and northwestern NM. Rainfall amounts and snow accumulations will be light and favor west facing slopes of the Chuska and Tusas Mts tonight and early Tuesday morning. The main sensible weather impact will be from strong southwesterly winds currently over the high terrain of central and western NM, but forecast to spread to areas along and east of the central mountain chain Tuesday afternoon. Aided by deep vertical mixing tapping into H7 winds of 35 to 45 kts and a 997mb MSLP surface low over southeastern CO, peak gusts at the surface of 35 to 50 mph will threaten hazardous crosswinds for area highways of eastern NM. A Wind Advisory will be hoisted Tuesday afternoon for these favored areas including the Sacramento Mts (Ruidoso) and areas along and north of I-40 and along and east of I-25, also including Curry and Roosevelt Counties. Rapid fire spread from any new sparks will be possible in these areas as well, see Fire Weather Discussion. Much of the Rio Grande Valley from Socorro to ABQ to Santa Fe and Taos will be stuck in between the unimpressive precipitation to the northwest and stronger winds to the east Tuesday. Winds calm Tuesday night with drier conditions moving in, which will allow for Wednesday morning low temperatures to bottom out near or below freezing for many western and northern areas. Warmer temperatures in the upper 30s and 40s hold onto the middle and lower Rio Grande Valley and eastern plains. Breezy to locally windy conditions are forecast Wednesday. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 1233 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Thursday sees the next Pacific storm system cross into the northwestern CONUS bringing increasing southwesterly winds to NM. Temperatures warm up alongside another bout of hazardous crosswinds for area highways for high profile vehicles Thursday afternoon. Numerical model guidance favors this system opening to a trough with its axis crossing NM Friday. Strong southwesterly to westerly winds will be favored Friday, with widespread gusts of 35 to 45 mph and peak gusts to 50+ mph across the central highlands and northeastern plains will be favored. Any precipitation with this late week system will favor areas to the north in the CO Rockies, leaving much of NM hanging out to dry. A sharp switch to much drier and colder northwesterly and northerly winds will be ushered in behind a potent cold front late Friday. This sets the stage for a sharp cool down Friday night into Saturday morning. There is a high probability for a hard freeze across the western and northern portion of the state, with lows near freezing in Albuquerque and the middle Rio Grande Valley. This will threaten many outdoor plants that underwent their early green up back during March's unprecedented heatwave. Temperatures warm up Sunday after another morning freeze across the western and northern thirds of the state, alongside a modest uptick in moisture arriving Monday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1116 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Light showers continue across north central NM late this morning. These showers will continue to gradually diminish in coverage through the afternoon, though mountain obscurations will remain possible. MVFR cigs around KGUP earlier this morning will continue to gradually rise. Strong southwest winds have already developed across the area and will persist through early evening. Gusts between 35 and 45kt will be common along and east of the Central Mountain Chain, while gusts up to 30kt will be common along and west of the Rio Grande Valley. Less wind is on tap for Wednesday, though breezy westerly winds will be favored across east central NM in the afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1233 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Strong southwesterly winds gusting to 35 to 50 mph alongside marginally critical humidity will produce critical fire weather conditions for areas along and east of the Sangre de Cristo and Sandia/Manzano Mountains Tuesday afternoon. Fine fuels in some areas of the east-central plains may have greened up a bit from last week's localized heavy rainfalls, notably in Roosevelt and Curry Counties. Meanwhile, elevated fire weather conditions will stretch westward into the Rio Grande Valley where winds will be a bit less and humidity a bit higher. Northwestern NM will receive colder temperatures alongside light valley and mid-elevation rain and high elevation snow. Another round of critical fire weather conditions returns Thursday after a brief respite from the winds Wednesday. Very dry southwesterly winds pick up Thursday yielding at least elevated fire weather conditions areawide, with critical favoring the northeastern plains where the strongest winds gusting to 35 to 45 mph will reside. These conditions spread to a majority of NM Friday afternoon as wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph spread alongside humidity falling to near or below 10 percent yet again. The strongest gusts of 45 to 50+ mph will favor the northeastern plains and central highlands again. A potent cold front associated with the main storm system passing just north of NM over the CO Rockies will usher in a sharp cool down behind northwesterly and northerly winds Friday night and Saturday morning. Due to the storm system's forecast track, any precipitation will stay north of the state line with few exceptions in the Tusas and northern Sangre de Cristo Mts Friday. Winds abate Saturday with temperatures warming back up Sunday and higher humidity arriving Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 59 31 65 33 / 60 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 52 23 61 22 / 80 5 0 0 Cuba............................ 57 28 61 31 / 50 5 0 0 Gallup.......................... 57 24 64 25 / 40 5 0 0 El Morro........................ 54 28 60 30 / 20 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 60 26 65 26 / 20 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 59 31 61 30 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 65 36 65 37 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 59 32 61 33 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 64 30 68 28 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 68 34 73 32 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 45 23 53 25 / 70 0 5 0 Los Alamos...................... 57 36 60 40 / 30 0 5 0 Pecos........................... 60 30 61 35 / 10 5 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 53 28 58 33 / 30 0 10 0 Red River....................... 43 24 48 26 / 30 0 10 0 Angel Fire...................... 51 22 54 21 / 20 0 5 5 Taos............................ 57 25 62 25 / 30 0 5 0 Mora............................ 58 29 61 33 / 5 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 64 34 68 33 / 20 0 5 0 Santa Fe........................ 59 34 62 37 / 20 5 5 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 62 33 66 34 / 20 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 66 41 68 43 / 5 5 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 69 42 70 42 / 5 5 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 70 38 72 39 / 5 5 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 68 40 71 40 / 10 5 0 0 Belen........................... 73 37 73 34 / 5 5 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 68 39 70 40 / 10 5 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 71 35 73 34 / 5 5 0 0 Corrales........................ 69 40 72 40 / 10 5 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 71 36 72 36 / 5 5 0 0 Placitas........................ 64 39 66 41 / 10 5 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 67 41 71 41 / 10 5 0 0 Socorro......................... 75 42 74 40 / 5 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 60 37 63 39 / 10 5 0 0 Tijeras......................... 63 37 64 39 / 10 5 0 0 Edgewood........................ 63 35 65 34 / 5 5 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 67 29 66 27 / 5 5 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 62 33 62 35 / 5 5 0 0 Mountainair..................... 67 33 65 35 / 5 5 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 66 35 64 36 / 0 5 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 69 41 67 41 / 0 5 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 63 38 61 41 / 10 10 0 0 Capulin......................... 63 29 61 31 / 0 0 5 0 Raton........................... 67 29 67 30 / 0 0 10 0 Springer........................ 68 30 67 29 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 62 31 64 34 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 73 40 68 41 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 68 35 67 36 / 0 0 5 0 Conchas......................... 78 39 76 39 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 74 40 71 39 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 81 42 78 43 / 0 5 0 0 Clovis.......................... 80 45 77 44 / 10 10 0 0 Portales........................ 82 45 78 42 / 5 10 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 79 42 76 39 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 83 47 81 43 / 0 5 0 0 Picacho......................... 74 42 73 41 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 70 38 71 37 / 10 5 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ104-123-125- 126. Wind Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ223-226>236-240. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...34  636 FXUS63 KARX 141728 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 1228 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe storms possible today, primarily for the southeastern half of the forecast area with large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rain causing flooding as the primary concerns. Secondary concern of isolated tornadoes. - Storm chances continue through Tuesday night and Wednesday, eventually ceasing temporarily through Thursday. Additional strong to severe storm chances return Friday afternoon/evening/night. && .UPDATE... Issued at 425 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 With visibilities dropping to 1/2 to 1/4 of a mile in the wake of our rainfall yesterday, have issued a short dense fog advisory to cover the morning commute window. Stratus building southward from west-central WI and the Twin Cities area, could result in the fog lifting from north south and will adjust the advisory footprint as needed over the next few hours. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1243 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Strong to Severe Storm Chances Today: As main line of storms progresses east-southeast of the local forecast area early this morning, return flow is quickly reinvigorating across central Iowa on early morning observations. The 60 degree isodrosotherm roughly collocated with 1" PWATs expected to return through most of the forecast area today aided by Rocky Mountain Low cyclogenesis progressing slightly northeast. Similar to Monday, the initial warm frontal passage increases low precipitation potential through the late morning/early afternoon before additional forcing and instability through the late afternoon and evening further increases local storm threat. Current confidence for northern extent is farther south than Monday, bifurcating the southeastern half of the forecast area with 1000+ J/kg (max 3000 J/kg) of SBCAPE concurrent with little to no SBCIN. The low loses conformity as it progresses northeast, becoming a meager low level trough bifurcating the forecast area. Resultant straight line hodographs exhibit unidirectional shear values capable of splitting supercells causing large hail and damaging winds primarily with an isolated tornado risk. Storm Chances Tonight Through Wednesday Night: High resolution models disagree on subsequent storm chances with most frequent storm solution seen in most recent HRRR (14.00Z) perpetuating storm chances Tuesday night, Wednesday morning, Wednesday afternoon, and Wednesday evening as the low level jet converges enhanced moisture along the locally lingering boundary until cyclogenesis and a low level trough passes overnight Wednesday into Thursday. While this is the most frequent outlier solution, most other high resolution models suggest some semblance of frequent storms through Wednesday evening. Similar to Today, large hail and damaging winds will be the main concern with isolated tornadoes possible Wednesday afternoon/evening given diurnal influence permitting convection potentially becoming surface based where storms set up. Storm Chances Return Friday: A reprieve in storm and precipitation chances on Thursday ceases Friday as another Rocky Mountain low enhances meridional low level moisture transport, returning strong to severe storm potential for some of the Upper Midwest. While the longer forecast hour limits overall confidence, enhanced cyclogenesis permits increased tapping into the anomalous moisture and accompanying instability, keeping precipitation probabilities high (70%+). && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1228 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 IFR and MVFR ceilings will become VFR by mid-afternoon. Scattered storms will develop along and south of the Interstate 90 by mid-afternoon and then move south by late afternoon. Some of these storms could be strong to severe. Dense fog will develop tonight and continue into the mid-morning of Wednesday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1226 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Anomalous moisture of the last couple days has resulted in flash flooding where strongest storms result in heavy rainfall. Additional river rises have prompted opening of river gates given expected additional daily precipitation. Highest observations from Monday's storms seen in a band from southeast Minnesota through western and central Wisconsin of 2"+. Therefore, primary area of concern for subsequent flooding would be in these areas should storms progresses as far north Tuesday. Confidence in rainfall reaching farther north into central Wisconsin Wednesday and Friday keeps heightened awareness for flooding concerns. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ UPDATE...Skow DISCUSSION...JAR AVIATION...Boyne HYDROLOGY...JAR  365 FXUS64 KBMX 141728 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1228 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1225 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026 - Fire danger will remain elevated through the week due to recent dryness, low relative humidity values, and increased winds at times. Outdoor burning is highly discouraged. - Near-record high temperatures are expected each day this week with only minimal rain chances in the forecast. Drought conditions will worsen. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 1225 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026 A broad 590dam mid-level ridge is in place over Florida today with a Bermuda High at the surface with axis extending west through the Deep South. This stubborn setup continues to deflect the active weather to our north and west, leaving us with sunny/mostly clear conditions and warming temperatures. As we progress through the week, a shortwave trough and associated weak cold front will attempt to advance into the area as a surface low tracks across the Great Lakes region on Thursday. Forcing along the front will be weakening with eastward extent and the lack of moisture across the area will only result in maybe a few sprinkles or light showers in our far northwest, but really nothing appreciable as the ridge looks to maintain dominance through the end of the week. In fact, a few areas will warm to near record highs on Friday. A stronger system will rotate across the Upper Plains on Saturday then lift across Ontario on Sunday. This longwave trough should do a better job of dampening the ridge across the Southeast, and chances continue to look favorable for at least medium chances of rain and some thunderstorms across the northwestern half of Central Alabama Saturday night into Sunday morning as another cold front moves into the region. Once again, however, the front will be moving into less favorable conditions (less available moisture) with eastward extend. Therefore, the greatest chances of seeing measurable rainfall will be focused in areas generally northwest of I-20/59 where there are low to medium chances of rainfall amounts up to 0.5" with much lesser amounts forecast to the southeast of there. The front will move east of the area by Sunday afternoon with a more seasonable to even slightly below average temperature profile expected to start next week as dry conditions resume. Expect drought conditions to continue to deteriorate across Central Alabama with some locations forecast to experience rapid onset drought due to the lack of meaningful rainfall in the forecast. In association with this, fire danger will remain elevated, and outdoor burning is discouraged. 86/Martin && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026 High pressure over the region will promote another set of VFR TAFs. The main consideration will be occasional gusts from the south- southwest up to 15-18 kts this afternoon. Calm to light winds expected by 00-01Z then increasing again to 5-8 kts by 15Z. Advection fog is forecast to develop along the coast again tonight, moving inland during the early morning hours tomorrow. Will be watching trends closely as it advects towards TCL, but expecting the fog deck to remain south of the terminal before it mixes out after sunrise tomorrow. 86/Martin && .FIRE WEATHER... Elevated fire danger conditions will be a concern daily as we head through the week. MinRHs today and Wednesday will drop into the 25-35% range. Winds will be a bit breezy with gusts from 10-15 MPH. Outside of a low chance of rain across our northwest areas, dry conditions will remain in place through the work week. A cold front is forecast to move through Saturday night, which will bring a low to medium chance for showers and storms. It will also lead to increased fire weather concerns late this weekend into early next week as much drier air moves back into the region. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1102 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026 Record High Temperatures: April 14: KBHM: 89/1981 KEET: 85/2017 KANB: 89/1981 KTCL: 88/2003 KMGM: 89/1972 April 15: KBHM: 88/1936 KEET: 85/2012 KANB: 89/1972 KTCL: 88/1972 KMGM: 91/1972 April 16: KBHM: 89/1977 KEET: 84/2013 KTCL: 90/1955 KMGM: 90/1925 April 17: KBHM: 90/1955 KEET: 86/2013 KTCL: 92/1955 KMGM: 90/1955 April 18: KBHM: 91/2006 KEET: 90/2006 KANB: 90/1955 KMGM: 91/2006 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 54 86 56 85 / 0 0 0 10 Anniston 57 86 58 85 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 60 86 61 85 / 0 0 0 10 Tuscaloosa 57 85 59 85 / 0 0 0 10 Calera 57 86 58 85 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 59 85 59 85 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 56 87 58 87 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 56 86 57 86 / 0 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...86/Martin AVIATION...86/Martin  638 FXUS66 KPDT 141729 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED AVIATION. National Weather Service Pendleton OR 1029 AM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mountain snow returns today through Thursday - Near to sub-freezing temperatures in the lower elevations Thursday and Friday mornings - Drier conditions return Friday into Saturday, but precip chances will develop again by Sunday && .DISCUSSION... Today through Thursday: A strong upper low with a leading cold front dropping out of the Gulf of Alaska will move across the PacNW starting today, bringing with it widespread rain and mountain snow chances (confidence 80-85%). The best precipitation chances in the lower elevations will be associated with the cold front passage late tonight through Wednesday afternoon, with chances tapering off late Wednesday through Thursday. The upper low and cold front will bring a much colder airmass to the region, resulting in snow levels steadily dropping to below pass levels by tonight, and between 1.5kft to 2kft by Wednesday evening. While the bulk of precip will fall before Wednesday evening in the lower elevations, portions of central and north central OR will see light rain transition to light snow. Otherwise, moderate to locally heavy snow showers will develop across the Cascade crest and the northern Blues this evening through Wednesday evening, with snow tapering off through Wednesday night and Thursday. Multiple winter weather headlines are in effect today through Wednesday night in anticipation of impacts from the heavy mountain snow. There remains high confidence (80-85%) in snow accumulations between 6-12 inches for the OR Cascade east slopes above 4000 feet, 4-8 inches for the upper east slopes of the WA Cascade east slopes, and 5-10 inches for the Northern Blues above 4500 feet. The heaviest snow accumulations are expected later tonight as the cold front slides through the region, with upslope snow showers persisting through the remainder of Wednesday. Breezy winds will continue to impact the region through the midweek as the cold front passage and continued cold air advection into the forecast area result in tightened pressure gradients. Confidence is moderate-high (55-85%) that westerly winds will remain between 15-30mph and gusts 25-45mph through the midweek. That said, wind-prone areas in the Columbia Basin and Blue mountain foothills will see a 65-85% chance of gusts exceeding 45 mph each day through Thursday. Otherwise, clearing skies, dry surface conditions, and cold air advection into the region will result in near to below freezing morning temperatures Thursday and Friday. Of particular concern are the Kittitas and Yakima valleys, where there is 65-85% chance of morning lows below freezing Thursday and Friday. Friday through Monday: Ensemble guidance is in good agreement of upper level ridging sliding across the PacNW with dry conditions and light winds by Friday (confidence 60-75%). The forecast area will remain under the influence of the ridge through Saturday afternoon, but ensemble members disagree on the evolution of the synoptic pattern late Saturday into Monday. That said, there is good agreement in some form of upper low bringing another round of precipitation chances to the region Sunday into early next week. Lawhorn/82 && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...VFR conditions currently prevail with concerns revolving around winds the next 24- hrs and deteriorating flight categories 12Z on tomorrow associated with a cold front. This active 24-hr window will see persistant breezy winds with elevated winds continuing overnight. This will be followed by a modest wind shift between 12Z-18Z tomorrow at terminals tomorrow with peak gusts expected around 25-35 kts. While there are low chance ahead of it this afternoon (23Z-04Z) at KALW and KPSC terminals, more robust chances (60% and higher) will be seen after 9Z tomorrow morning at terminals from west to east and north to south. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 58 41 52 31 / 10 60 90 40 ALW 58 42 52 34 / 20 80 100 60 PSC 61 44 58 34 / 20 40 70 20 YKM 58 39 55 30 / 20 60 30 10 HRI 60 42 57 33 / 10 40 80 20 ELN 51 32 48 29 / 40 70 30 10 RDM 56 35 49 23 / 10 50 90 30 LGD 56 39 49 29 / 10 90 100 70 GCD 58 38 48 26 / 10 70 100 70 DLS 58 41 54 35 / 40 80 70 20 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT Wednesday for WAZ030. Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT Wednesday for WAZ522. OR...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT Wednesday for ORZ502. Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ509. && $$ DISCUSSION...82 AVIATION...82  216 FXUS64 KSHV 141728 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1228 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1215 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Chance for some showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday with an upper low riding over the Plains on SW flow. - The weekend cold front is looking earlier on Saturday with more needed rainfall and cooler readings Sunday into Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1137 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Surface ridge across the Atlantic Ocean extending westward across the northern gulf coast combined with a low across the Kansas will maintain increased southerly flow of gulf moisture through the middle of the weekend. An eastward moving upper-level trough across the Desert Southwest into the Central Plains will lead to steepening lapse rates across eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas this evening and overnight as heights gradually fall across these areas. The combination of a moist boundary layer and increasing instability aloft could allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms across northeast Texas and southeast Oklahoma overnight. Although the ArkLaTex is outside of the SPC Day 1 severe weather threat outlook, a few strong storms could venture into portions of southeast Oklahoma allowing for gusty winds and possibly small hail near daybreak. Another shortwave trough to swing east across the Texas panhandle into Oklahoma on Wednesday evening allowing for another round of convection across southeast Oklahoma and Arkansas into the overnight hours. A few strong storms may be possible across portions of southeast Oklahoma with widespread rainfall expanding into Arkansas as upper forcing wanes. Conditions to improve on Thursday as weak upper-level ridging builds across the region. However, southwest flow to return by Friday allowing for increased instability ahead of a frontal boundary that will move across the region on Saturday. Could see widespread showers and thunderstorms across the entirety of the ArkLaTex on Saturday, lingering across areas south of Intestate 20 into Saturday evening. Otherwise, cool and dry high pressure to build areawide by Sunday with highs in the lower 70s and lows Monday morning in the mid to upper 40s. /05/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 646 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Extensive areas of low MVFR cigs have overspread much of the region this morning, and will persist through late morning before slowly returning to VFR by late morning/midday. Cu cigs should linger through the afternoon though across much of E TX/NW LA/SW AR before scattering out, but will scatter out a bit sooner over SCntrl AR/NCntrl LA, before eventually dissipating around/shortly after 00Z. While some thin cirrus will linger across the region this evening, low MVFR cigs should redevelop over SE TX by 06Z, and quickly spread NNE across the region overnight, before lifting again/returning to VFR by late morning/midday Wednesday. S winds will increase to 10-15kts with gusts to 22kts before diminishing to 5-10kts after 00Z. /15/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1240 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Spotter activation will not be needed until late Wednesday. /24/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 65 85 67 87 / 0 0 20 20 MLU 63 88 66 89 / 0 0 10 20 DEQ 63 80 62 83 / 20 40 80 30 TXK 67 85 67 86 / 10 20 60 20 ELD 62 85 64 86 / 0 0 30 30 TYR 67 84 68 86 / 0 30 40 10 GGG 66 84 67 86 / 0 20 30 10 LFK 65 85 67 88 / 0 10 10 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...05 AVIATION...15  729 FXUS63 KLBF 141729 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 1229 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A warm front sharpens across the southern parts of the area today. Increasing chances for rain/thunder will develop to the north of this front late this afternoon and tonight. - Scattered showers linger Wednesday morning. Winds shift to the west to southwest during the afternoon. Elevated to perhaps near- critical fire weather concerns appear they will develop Wednesday afternoon. This is especially true west of Highway 61. - Fire weather concerns will increase Thursday with near critical or critical conditions possible. Additional fire weather concerns are possible Saturday afternoon, and again on Sunday and Monday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 313 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A rather complicated scenario today into tonight regarding precipitation chances. As a shortwave approaches the area, a warm front sharpens near the Nebraska/Kansas border this morning and attempts to lift northward into southern Nebraska. All indications are that it will not make it all the way to I-80, and winds will remain east to northeast to the north of the front. A narrow corridor of pooling moisture is noted just north of the front. Several of the CAMs fire at least some isolated convection in this area around the I-80 corridor late this afternoon. This evening as large scale large scale lift overspreads the area with the approaching wave, showers and isolated thunderstorms should become more numerous to the north of I-80 within an area of strong mid- level FGEN developing from southwest to northeast across the area north of the frontal boundary. MUCAPE/elevated values are on the order of 300-600 J/KG across the southern Sandhills and into southwest Nebraska through this evening. Shear is strong, and could see an isolated strong storm or two that produce small hail. Scattered showers linger though the morning hours Wednesday with the threat over by afternoon. A surface trough will mix eastward with humidity values falling rapidly by afternoon. Fire weather concerns appear they will be elevated to perhaps near-critical for areas west of Highway 83 and especially Highway 61. At this time it does not appear that winds will be strong enough to warrant a Fire Weather Watch, but this will have to be monitored closely. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 313 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A strong upper level trough of low pressure will dive southeast from eastern Washington into southern Idaho Thursday. East of this trough, a deepening surface trough of low pressure will develop from eastern Wyoming into northeastern Colorado. East of this feature, gusty southerly and south-southwesterly winds will develop by Thursday afternoon. Decent low level warm air advection will push highs into the lower 80s across the forecast area. Windy conditions will develop with a high likelihood of wind gusts exceeding 25 MPH per the latest NBM ensemble probabilities. Forecast soundings indicate even higher gust potential Thursday afternoon. The combination of gusty winds and highs in the 80s will lead to near critical to critical fire weather conditions across the area Thursday afternoon. The kicker here will be where the cutoff in low level moisture return resides. The latest EC soln, lifts a tongue of low level moisture into south central and eastern Nebraska Thursday afternoon with a dryline on the western periphery of this moisture tongue. Looking at the latest deterministic NAM12 soln tonight has this feature at 21z Thursday roughly along a line from eastern Frontier county, north-northeast into eastern Custer, then southeastern Holt county. With this location, min RH may be too high for a RFW. West of this line, there appears to be a high likelihood of RFW conditions for most of the forecast area Thursday afternoon. ATTM will continue to highlight this critical fire weather threat in the HWO. The upper level trough will move southeast into northeastern Utah Thursday night, forcing a strong cold front through the forecast area. This feature should pass through the forecast area by 12z Friday. Behind the front, highs Friday will range from the lower 40s in the northwest, to lower 60s in the east. Forcing for precipitation will be most favorable across northwestern portions of the forecast area Friday. This forcing will shift east Friday night into Saturday morning. With lows expected to reach into the 20s Friday night, snow will become the predominant ptype Friday night. Precipitation amounts appear light with this system across the forecast area as NBM ensemble probabilities are generally in the 20 to 30% range for exceedance of 0.10". Even if a tenth of an inch were achieved, any snow accumulations would be under an inch at best. Upper level forcing will quickly shift east of the forecast area Saturday morning. In its wake, gusty northerly winds and very dry boundary layer air will push into the area by Saturday afternoon. Even with forecast highs in the 50s the strong northerly winds and minimum RH of 15 to 20 percent may lead to near critical fire weather conditions Saturday afternoon. Across the western forecast area, the NBM initialized with some isolated pops Saturday afternoon. Looking closer, very steep lapse rates and negative, elevated LI's are present in the western half of the FA (per GFS soln). That being said, decided to leave pops for Saturday afternoon in this forecast package. Ridging will build into the Intermountain West Sunday forcing warmer air east onto the high plains. Highs Sunday will reach into the 60s to lower 70s with 70s to lower 80s for Monday. Dry conditions are expected through Monday with the next possible chance of precipitation late Tuesday/Wednesday-April 21, 22. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1229 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Some stronger northeast winds with gusts up to 25 knots are expected this afternoon across portions of southwest Nebraska. Otherwise, the main aviation concern will be the potential for some scattered rain showers across much of the region into tonight. Isolated showers will begin to impact portions of northern Nebraska and into the Panhandle by mid to late afternoon. Shower activity will slowly spread eastward into the evening and overnight hours. Main threats with these storms will be some minor visibility restrictions, small hail, and briefly gusty winds. Conditions gradually improve around sunrise Wednesday and through the morning hours. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for NEZ204-206-208>210-219. && $$ SHORT TERM...Taylor LONG TERM...Buttler AVIATION...Kulik  143 FXUS65 KPSR 141729 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 1029 AM MST Tue Apr 14 2026 .UPDATE...Updated 18Z Aviation Discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Weak high pressure will settle back into the region today into Wednesday leading to drier conditions and eventual warmer temperatures. - Breezy to locally windy conditions are expected Thursday and Friday with elevated Fire Weather conditions focused across the Lower Colorado River Valley. - Above normal temperatures should return by early next week with lower desert highs warming into the low to mid nineties. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A weakening upper level trough is currently moving through the Desert Southwest with the low center across northwest Arizona moving northeastward into Utah. A trailing trough axis is also moving through central Arizona with isolated light showers lingering from north Phoenix into the Mogollon Rim. These showers should move out of our area by sunrise leaving clearing skies and plenty of sunshine for the rest of today. A cooler post-frontal air mass will help to keep daytime highs from reaching 80 degrees across the south-central Arizona lower deserts to at most the lower 80s across the western deserts. Weak upper level ridging is then forecast to move through the region on Wednesday helping to boost temperatures back into at least the mid 80s, or within the normal range. Drying conditions later today and on Wednesday will also lead to surface dew points dropping back into the 20s for most locations. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... By Thursday, a large Pacific weather system is slated to move southeastward through the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin leading to height falls over our region and an increasing pressure gradient. Breezy to locally windy conditions are likely to affect much of the area starting Thursday afternoon and again on Friday as the system moves by just to our north. Advisory level winds may also be possible, particularly across southeast California and the Colorado River Valley. Near normal temperatures Thursday are forecast to dip on Friday as the NBM/WPC shows highs back into a 80-85 degree range. Stronger ridging is then favored to build across the Western U.S. over the weekend pushing daytime highs to near 90 degrees Saturday and then into a 90-95 degree range for Sunday and next Monday. The weather pattern through at least the first half of next week should support continued dry weather along with at least one more weather system passing by to our north creating breezy to windy conditions. && .AVIATION...Updated at 1728Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: No major aviation concerns are expected throughout the TAF period. Winds will begin to follow typical diurnal trends today with speeds aob 10kts through out the period. Easterly shift is expected around midnight tonight for the overnight period. Otherwise, clear skies will prevail through the rest of the TAF period. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No major aviation concerns are expected throughout the TAF period. Wind speeds will generally remain AOB 10 kts through the TAF period at both terminals. KIPL will stay out of the NW through the afternoon, going VRB by the evening hours then quickly settling back out of the west for the overnight hours, and KBLH will be mostly VRB with a period of NNE winds this afternoon. Clear skies will persist through the TAF period. && .FIRE WEATHER... A weather system will exit the region today with only lingering chances for isolated light showers across the eastern Arizona high terrain this morning. Weak high pressure and drying conditions will prevail for the rest of today through Wednesday with overall light winds. MinRHs will dip to between 15-20% today and 10-15% on Wednesday as overnight recoveries become poor to fair starting tonight at 30-50%. Another passing weather system late week will likely bring increased winds and even lower RHs resulting in the potential for elevated fire weather conditions on Thursday and Friday. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kuhlman LONG TERM...Kuhlman AVIATION...Ryan FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman  712 FXUS64 KLUB 141732 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1232 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1227 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - A dryline will bring chances for severe storms to areas off the Caprock this afternoon and evening, with dry and windy conditions west of the escarpment. - Critical fire danger is expected this afternoon for western portions of the Caprock which have not seen beneficial rainfall over the past week. - Elevated to critical fire weather may return on Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 1227 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The lack of substantial large scale ascent overhead will continue to make today's forecast highly uncertain. However, all other thermodynamic parameters will be in place to support severe thunderstorms from this afternoon through early evening. A positively tilted trough will continue to move eastward across the Intermountain West this afternoon with the trough axis stretching into the southwestern US. There may be a weak short wave or two late this afternoon or evening moving through the southwest flow aloft. However, nothing is discernible currently on water vapor imagery. Furthermore, much of the lift from this trough will not arrive until late this evening into early Wednesday morning. An eastward moving dryline this afternoon will keep the deeper moisture off the caprock but there is little convergence on this low level feature. Therefore, there is no one favored location for convective development off the caprock this afternoon. Low level moisture will continue to be drawn up into the area early this evening as the dryline begins to retreat back westward. Although some CAM guidance convects on the dryline, the lack of ample large scale ascent and weak convergence along the dryline would only favor a few storms. As mentioned above, thermodynamic profiles will be favorable for severe storms. Afternoon storms will favor a large hail and damaging wind threat. Steep mid level lapse rates under a well mixed and warm near surface layer will yield mixed layer CAPE values anywhere between 1500 and 2500 J/kg off the caprock. High level cloud cover will at least somewhat inhibit mixing for the rest of the afternoon. This is also evident in latest CAM guidance waffling on convective initiation. The tornado potential will be low with afternoon convection due to the weak convergence along the dryline and nearly straight line hodographs. There will be very little curvature in the forecast low level hodographs supporting this low tornado threat. During the late afternoon into the early evening, the retreating dryline will see a higher chance for tornadoes as the low level jet rapidly increases. Low level turning will greatly increase during this time period contributing to the increased tornado threat along with the continued large hail and damaging wind threat. A pacific cold front will begin to impinge on the extreme southwestern Texas Panhandle early Wednesday morning and slowly progress across the FA through the morning and early afternoon hours. We will see deep boundary layer mixing on Wednesday tapping into a broad region of winds of 30-35kt at 700mb. The deep mixing will allow for relative humidity values to drastically drop on Wednesday afternoon, possibly into the single digits. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1227 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 At the moment, the long term forecast is trending drier. From Thursday into Friday the next short wave trough will be diving across the Intermountain West but remaining well north of the region. As this shortwave emerges onto the northern and central Plains on Friday, low level moisture will make a return. However, the far northern latitude of this trough will more likely bring fire weather conditions. The dryline should quickly mix eastward on Friday leaving the FA with very dry and breezy conditions. A fairly potent cold front will follow sometime late Friday into early Saturday which will bring much cooler temperatures for the weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Breezy to windy southwest winds will continue at all terminals through sunset, with speeds around 20-20G40KTs. Overall VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all TAF sites through the period. However, there remains a slight chance for -TSRA at KCDS this evening, which could bring brief MVFR CIGs to the terminal. If any storms develop localized strong gusty winds and heavy rainfall could lead visibility restrictions. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>025- 027>030-033-034-039. Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>023-027>029. && $$ SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...12  799 FXUS63 KAPX 141732 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 132 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Ongoing flooding may worsen with additional rain and storms through daybreak. Highest rainfall expected south of M-72. - Severe thunderstorm chances tonight and again Tuesday evening/Tuesday night with primary hazards of damaging winds and large hail. - Additional rounds of rain and mild temperatures through this week before turning cold late this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 128 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Pattern Synopsis: Continued active pattern consisting of troughing over the western CONUS and ridging anchored over the eastern seaboard. This will continue to result in an active, southern stream wave dominant pattern that leads to numerous disturbances riding into the Great Lakes region, focused along a stationary boundary draped over Michigan. A direct Gulf moisture tap will continue to lead to anomalously moist airmasses moving into Michigan, and thus continues a heavy rain and thunderstorm threat through the end of the week. Some signs of a pattern breakdown with cooler weather through the weekend into next week... with perhaps a brief reprieve from the wet conditions as well. Details: Ongoing convection to continue through roughly daybreak. Warm / stationary frontal boundary draped from Frankfort to Harrisville, which will continue to be the focus for deeper convection. Strong low level jet (LLJ) intrusion driving elevated convection north into the Tip of the Mitt as well. Heaviest rainfall rates and severe threat (hail and wind) will still favor areas near and south of M-32, though with the ongoing high water situation across the far northern reaches of northern lower, there will continue to be flooding issues there as well. Rainfall will diminish into the morning hours, giving a temporary break to the area. Dry weather to prevail through Tuesday, with the warm front sliding just south owing to the ongoing convection. Another wave riding this front will traverse lower Michigan. With much more instability to play with, we may be looking at another round of severe storms and heavy rain... but initial thinking from guidance is that this will be suppressed downstate for the most part... perhaps scraping the M- 55 corridor. This will be an all hazards type setup, and unfortunately will have to be refined with time based on where the warm front goes. Nonetheless... it does appear the farther north one goes, there should be a lesser risk of rain and thunderstorms later tonight. Additional waves of energy will barge through the region and deliver more rounds of rainfall. Still a bit fuzzy on the details for the time being... but timing is coming into focus. Additional showers and storms will be possible south on Wednesday, overspreading much of northern lower into Wednesday night - Thursday. Another reprieve likely comes Friday before a larger system passes through the region, delivering yet another round of rain and thunder Friday night through Saturday. This will bring about colder temperatures to the region... with the temperature contrast of colder in eastern upper and mild / 70s south coming to a conclusion. Highs by Sunday will be in the 30s to near 40 across the board with snow chances. The chill will moderate some into midweek next week... with highs possibly reaching back into the 50s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 132 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 General trends point towards bettering conditions (MVFR to high end IFR) across terminals this afternoon/evening ahead of an additional wave of showers and thunderstorms expected to pass through tonight generally after 00z. Conditions will deteriorate through the night with melting snow creating areas of BR and FG and showers dropping ceilings and visibilities as well. Thinking it will be similar to what we saw this morning. Wind gusts up to 15 knots will be possible through the period (higher within any stronger storms, especially TVC and MBL). && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for MIZ016>018-020>036- 041-042-086>088-095-096-099. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...HAD AVIATION...NSC  796 FXUS64 KMAF 141732 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1232 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1224 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Low to medium shower and thunderstorm chances (10-40%) today across the Permian Basin and Lower Trans-Pecos. Damaging winds and large hail remain the primary hazards for the strongest storms. - Near-critical fire weather conditions are expected across southeast New Mexico, the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains, and portions of far west Texas through Friday. - Very windy conditions expected in the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains beginning this morning lasting through the evening. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Current satellite imagery and latest 500mb RAP analysis shows an upper-level low near the Desert Southwest. Strong southwesterly flow aloft over the region allows for strong to breezy winds and another round of storms today. Starting off with the winds, a 500mb jet max is expected to be positioned over central New Mexico. Guidance continues to show a mountain wave signature at both the 500 and 700mb levels across the Guadalupe Mountains. This signature suggests strong winds over these areas, therefore, a High Wind Warning is in effect until Tuesday evening. Strong winds are also anticipated over the Eddy County Plains this afternoon and early evening prompting a Wind Advisory. The dryline looks to advance in the eastern portions of the forecast area, keeping dry conditions for southeast New Mexico allowing elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions during the afternoon. Dense high cloud cover is going to limit the fire weather threat. See the fire weather discussion for more details below! Another round of storms are anticipated once again this afternoon and evening. Storm coverage and chances increase due to the additional lift from the approaching upper-level storm system and Pacific front. Storms look to develop in the mid afternoon hours across the Lower Trans Pecos. Further storm development takes shape as the dryline retreats back west in the early evening hours mainly across portions of the Permian Basin. A couple of storms may become strong to severe with the primary threats being damaging winds and large hail, thanks to sufficient deep-layer wind shear and instability. CAMs seem to be over-estimating instability (1500-3000 J/kg) for eastern portions of the area. Broken cloud coverage throughout the afternoon will limit instability, therefore, limiting the severe weather threat. Nonetheless, the environment is still favorable for a few strong storms to occur. Wednesday, the upper-level storm system moves further east into the Central Plains. This will keep the dryline east enough where low chances (10-20%) for isolated storms exist for far eastern portions during the afternoon and early evening. The aforementioned Pacific front cools temperatures slightly with highs ranging from the upper 70s and 80s for most locations. Lamberson && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Afternoon highs are expected to remain in the 80s and 90s during the latter part of this week, with Friday being the warmest day due to southwesterly downslope flow. The dryline we've been talking about the last several days could stay west enough for a small (10-20%) chance of a shower/storm to develop in the Permian Basin Thursday evening. By Friday, an upper-level trough moves across the Central Rockies and into the Central Great Plains. Meanwhile, the dryline moves back west near the Texas/New Mexico border and extends south towards the Big Bend. However, the best forcing for ascent is expected to be off to our north and wind will be the main impact portions of our area feels from this system. We are keeping a close eye on Friday in terms of fire weather as strong westerly winds, low relative humidity, and dry fuels are forecast across southeast New Mexico (see Fire Weather Discussion below for additional details). By Friday night into Saturday, a strong cold front is forecast to move through the area, resulting in northerly to northeasterly winds and cooler temperatures. We may have to increase winds in our forecast behind the front towards the end of the week as the NBM often handles these systems poorly. Afternoon highs drop into the 70s for most on Saturday, with even cooler temperatures on Sunday. This is due to increased cloud cover, chances of rain (10-40% mainly south of I-20), and easterly upslope flow. Cluster analysis depicts the return of upper-level ridging by early next week, signaling another temperature warmup. However, there is uncertainty in how much of a warmup we should expect as there is currently large spread amongst the ensemble members. This is likely due to differences in model solutions regarding the positioning and strength of the ridge. Greening && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions prevail at most sites through the period. Breezy southwest winds are expected this afternoon, tapering down during the evening. Strongest winds will be at HOB and CNM (occasional gusts between 30-40 kts). Isolated showers and storms develop later this afternoon, heading eastward through the evening hours. Best (~30%) rain chances lie over MAF and FST. Have included a PROB30 at FST, holding of on MAF at the moment. Amendments shall be made as necessary. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Fire weather conditions increase today as stronger winds and MinRHs between 10-15 percent are expected along with drier fuels. Cloudy skies and light fuel loading will be limiting factors in the threat for rapid fire growth. As such, we have cancelled the Fire Weather Watch and opted not to upgrade to a Red Flag Warning, but instead issued a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement. Near-critical fire weather conditions continue through the end of the week for southeastern New Mexico and the northern Permian Basin, with Friday being the day to focus on most as a deep upper-level trough enters the Great Plains. This is expected to bring stronger southwesterly winds which in turn lowers MinRHs into the single digits. Additionally, continued drying fuels raise RFTIs into the 6-8 range across much of southeast New Mexico and portions of northern Culberson County in west Texas. This may result in critical to potentially extreme fire weather conditions on Friday for these areas. However, monitoring the latest forecast is highly suggested as things may change. Friday night into Saturday, winds are expected to shift northerly to northeasterly behind a cold front. As a result, cooler temperatures and improved MinRHs improve fire weather conditions, though winds are expected to be breezy. Greening && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 62 86 54 88 / 30 20 0 10 Carlsbad 55 82 48 87 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 64 87 61 87 / 30 20 10 10 Fort Stockton 62 86 56 89 / 20 10 0 10 Guadalupe Pass 52 72 51 77 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 54 81 48 86 / 10 0 0 0 Marfa 48 78 44 83 / 10 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 62 85 55 87 / 30 10 0 10 Odessa 62 84 55 86 / 30 10 0 10 Wink 59 85 50 89 / 20 10 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Wind Warning until 11 PM CDT /10 PM MDT/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. NM...High Wind Warning until 10 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County. Wind Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for Eddy County Plains. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....55 AVIATION...95  502 FXUS63 KLOT 141733 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 1233 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Late spring to summer-like temperatures will continue through Friday with highs in the 70s and 80s and lows in the 60s. - Several additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms, including a threat for severe weather and flooding expected, especially late this afternoon/evening and again on Wednesday. - A brief break in the pattern is expected late Thursday into or through the day on Friday before another storm system arrives in the Friday evening to Saturday timeframe. - In the wake of the Saturday cold front, a brief, potentially sharp, shot of much cooler air could bring frost/freeze concerns into next Sunday and Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 328 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Today through Wednesday Night: A weakening MCS will continue drifting across northern Illinois through this morning in a weakening phase with a gusty outflow boundary surging out ahead of it. The OFB passage may bring a temporary period of onshore winds and notably cooler conditions to portions of the lakeshore (especially far NE IL) and perhaps patchy fog as well. Towards and after sunrise this morning, a question will be the extent to which widely scattered elevated convection (showers and isolated non-severe storms) may develop with southward extent behind the outflow boundary. Once any convection this morning fades out, expect the rest of the morning and into the early afternoon to be dry as the area once again becomes capped underneath a strong EML (elevated mixed layer) inversion. A likely key player the rest of this afternoon for the looming PM severe threat will be how far south the outflow boundary from the weakening MCS reaches, before retreating back north as an effective warm front. A farther south remnant outflow boundary could conceivably aid in a bit farther south convective initiation (CI) near the stalled warm front this afternoon than depicted verbatim by most of the CAM guidance. On the other hand, low clouds shifting southward in the wake of the OFB this morning will serve to limit insolation initially, potentially delaying stronger destabilization until the mid afternoon. Conceptually, the area to monitor for explosive CI this afternoon will in closer proximity to the stalled warm front (as previously noted), from northwest Illinois and northeast Iowa into southern Wisconsin. Satellite, observational, and mesoanalysis trends will need to monitored closely for any subtle 700 mb impulses that could help erode the cap as early as 3-5pm. A secondary possible area to watch for isolated storms by the mid to late afternoon will be into portions of central IL as a 500 mb vort lobe translates east-northeast. Ultimately, the lack of stronger large scale forcing (neutral h5 height tendencies) casts some uncertainty/conditionality to this setup. An ensemble of recent CAM solutions does suggest a realistic play for the daylight hours remaining dry across our CWA counties. With the OFB placement wildcard and possibility that subtle upstream impulses can sufficiently erode the cap, we maintained (30-50%) chance PoPs as early as 3-5 PM over the northwest 1/3 to 1/2 of the CWA, and stair-stepping gradually south from there. Once clouds scatter enough early this afternoon, several hours of diurnal heating and destabilization of the moist (dew points in the 60s) low-level air mass topped by very steep lapse rates aloft will yield a very favorable thermodynamic environment for severe storms (MLCAPE possibly at or bit upward of 3k J/kg). In the presence of about 40 kt of deep layer bulk shear, this will be a conditionally volatile environment for supercells capable of very large hail (2"+). If CI occurs into the CWA prior to sunset, somewhat weaker low-level flow and storm relative inflow (especially if sfc winds remain veered) would indeed favor damaging to potentially destructive hail as a primary threat initially. As the low-level jet diurnally intensifies into this evening, a notable tornado threat could also unfold into northeast IA, southern WI, and possibly far northern IL, given enlarged low- level hodographs. Any locally backed surface winds would further enhance SRH. With the above being said, despite the 3/5 severe threat level (enhanced risk) for locations north of I-80 today-tonight (Tuesday-Tuesday night), our confidence is a bit lower in storms effectively tapping into the volatile environment today within our CWA. A later after sunset arrival into far northern Illinois and mid-late evening farther south would give some time for instability to wane. Also, the relatively parallel alignment of the deep layer shear vector to the warm front should lead to a storm mode transition from supercells to upscale growth into forward propagating segments through the evening. Mismatched west-southwesterly 850-300 mb flow vs. propagation vectors towards the east-southeast may limit how far south and east an appreciable damaging wind (and embedded QLCS type tornado threat can reach). All in all, the area of greatest concern for potential significant severe weather is well outlined by the zone of 10% tornado probs in SPC's day 1 outlook, approximately near and north of a Dixon to Highland Park IL line. Additional storms should eventually fill in behind the evening activity overnight, favoring our highest official PoPs of the night into the 60-70% range. Hydrology may become an increased concern later tonight, particularly if repeated rounds of storms move over the same area. If this occurs, a notable threat of flash flooding will materialize, perhaps more than implied by a flood threat level of 1/4 (marginal risk) in WPC's excessive rainfall outlook. Exactly how the event will play out through tonight remains quite uncertain. With so much riding on the effects of prior convection into Wednesday morning, little can be gleaned about Wednesday PM's threat for strong to severe storms with any sort of confidence. It looks quite messy/muddled and we won't be able to sort things out until more is known about the environmental evolution. A 2/5 threat level (slight risk) remains targeted for areas northwest of I-55 in SPC's initial day 2 outlook, with a level 1/5 (marginal risk) I-55 and southeast, including Chicago. At present, independent of where any corridors of severe storms set up, likely veered surface winds, modest low-level flow just off the deck, and mid-level lapse rates not quite as steep, seem to point towards damaging winds as the primary threat after any initial hail threat. Mesoscale evolution may yield a localized enhanced tornado threat, as per the outlook discussion. Castro/KJB Thursday through Monday: There's variance regarding the progression of a cold front across the region, with some of the slower solutions holding onto some potential for storms into Thursday afternoon (particularly southeast ~1/2 of CWA). Thereafter, into Thursday night and at least the start of Friday, ensemble model guidance advertises a brief break in the stormy pattern as shortwave ridging moves through the Great Lakes ahead of a substantial trough digging into the central US. High temperatures look to rebound into the low to even mid 80s by Friday accompanied by another potential threat for strong to severe thunderstorms Friday night into Saturday. Thereafter, there is a reasonably strong signal in ensemble guidance for a cooldown to start next week. The key aspect for the weekend into early next week cooldown is a recent trend towards a much cooler air mass due to trough amplification over the region. If this comes to pass, parts of the area may flirt with sub-freezing temperatures Saturday night into early Sunday, and again Sunday night into next Monday morning. With the summer-like warmth and rain this week supercharging plant growth and leaf out, the magnitude of the weekend cold shot will be one to watch for agricultural interests. Castro/Borchardt && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1233 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Key Aviation Messages for the current TAF period: - Chance for showers and storms this afternoon, with another wave of showers and storms expected this evening, potentially becoming severe - MVFR/IFR conditions possible with any stronger storms, particularly this evening/overnight - Gusty southwest winds expected for much of the TAF period, though erratic directions and stronger gusts possible with any thunderstorms Regional radar mosaic shows showers have developed in southeast Iowa/western Illinois moving northeastward. While the sun is currently filtering through the BKN VFR cloud deck, showers are expected to move in this afternoon with a chance for embedded thunderstorms. Maintained a PROB30 for thunder this afternoon given the uncertainty on when/if thunder develops, but will amend as needed depending on radar trends. There are better chances for showers and thunder around and after 00Z this evening, thus converting the PROB30 to a TEMPO for this second round. Strong and potentially severe storms are possible during this wave. MVFR cigs are possible with IFR vis possible with the heaviest downpours. There is still a signal for showers and embedded thunder to drop down out of Wisconsin during the overnight. However, confidence still remains on the lower side depending on what develops this evening. Opted to maintain the -SHRA VCTS mention with MVFR conditions through just before daybreak. The threat for thunder diminishes tomorrow morning, but chances for rain and showers remain through the day tomorrow. DK && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago  572 FXUS65 KFGZ 141734 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1034 AM MST Tue Apr 14 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Look for gusty winds and mainly isolated showers today as the current storm system moves eastward. Another round of windy weather is expected Thursday, followed by cooler temperatures Friday as a weather system passes to our north. The weekend looks dry with warmer daytime temperatures and well below normal morning lows. && .DISCUSSION...The current low pressure system will rapidly exit Arizona today. The best chance for showers will be toward the Arizona/New Mexico border through mid-morning. There could be an additional inch or two of snow in the higher elevations of the Chuska mountains with rain amounts ranging from 0.10-0.20 at lower elevations. The snow level will range roughly from 6,000-6,500 feet through the early morning hours. For the remainder of the day enough moisture will linger for isolated instability showers which should mainly be light and brief. Behind the low pressure system gradients will weaken so it won't be as windy as was observed on Monday. Consequently, we are looking at primarily west winds at 10-20 mph with a few gusts approaching 30 mph with the higher values mainly located from Flagstaff eastward. On Wednesday...Dry air will move in from the west. Pressure gradients will be much weaker with southwest to west winds at 5-15 mph forecast. The air mass will be milder with temperatures ranging near seasonal averages. For Thursday through Friday...Another trough will deliver a glancing blow to northern Arizona. The main impact will be a return to stronger winds. On Thursday, ahead of the trough axis, winds will become southwest at 15-25 mph gusting to 35-45 mph. Winds will remain gusty Thursday night but gradually weaken and shift to a west to northwest direction as the trough axis moves across the area. Friday will see west to northwest winds at 10-20 mph gusting to 30 mph behind the trough. There will be some dynamics for upward motion along the Arizona/Utah border but with limited moisture the chances for any showers will be slight, mainly Thursday night through the morning Friday. From Saturday onward...Even drier air moves in. With lighter winds and strong radiational cooling there will be the potential for elevations above 6,500 feet to see low temperatures in the teens to mid 20s both Saturday and Sunday mornings. Another trough will approach Arizona from Sunday into early next week with gusty southwest winds returning to begin next week. && .AVIATION...Tuesday 14/18Z through Wednesday 15/18Z...Mainly VFR, with lingering MVFR CIGs this morning and isolated -SHRA through 03Z. Winds primarily west at 10-20 kts. Gusts to 25-30 kts east of KFLG. Winds becoming light and variable at less than 10 kts overnight. OUTLOOK...Wednesday 15/18Z through Friday 17/18Z...VFR conditions. Winds southwest to west at 5-15 kts on Wednesday, becoming southwest at 15-25 kts gusting to 30-40 kts on Thursday. Winds remaining locally gusty Thursday night. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Wednesday...Isolated showers will linger today, mainly light and brief. Dry conditions return on Wednesday. Winds west at 10-20 mph gusting to 30 mph today, then diminishing to southwest to west at 5-15 mph on Wednesday. Thursday through Saturday...Dry through the period. Winds southwest at 10-20 mph gusting to 25-35 mph on Thursday, shifting to northwest on Friday, then turning variable at 5-15 mph on Saturday. Minimum RH of 10-20% is forecast for Thursday and Friday, then turning a bit drier at 10-15% on Saturday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...McCollum AVIATION...Lewandowski FIRE WEATHER...McCollum For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff  500 FXUS64 KLZK 141734 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1234 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 138 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 -Active pattern expected across the region...but only limited potential for thunderstorms/rainfall in Arkansas -First decent thunderstorm/rainfall potential for Arkansas late Wednesday night into Thursday morning -Next wave of thunderstorm/rainfall potential late Friday into Saturday as a cold front moves through the region -Cooler/drier weather expected late this weekend into early next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 138 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 An active weather pattern remains the main story through the next several days across the region...but much of AR remains on the ERN/SERN extent of most activity. Initially...only some small chances for isolated/widely scattered convection are forecast today/tonight...mainly for WRN/NWRN sections...with much better chances for more organized activity remaining west. Most areas of the LZK CWA should remain dry into Wed...with highs in the 70s and 80s. By late Wed into early Thu...upper level energy in the SW flow aloft will shift east slightly by Thu morning...with the potential for a bit more organized convection increasing further E/SE. Have increasing POPs for this as a result...with best POPs late Wed night into early Thu afternoon. Given the timing of this activity...the threat for strong/SVR convection looks relatively limited this time. Potential for precip decreases again for most locations late Thu into much of Fri as upper ridging moves over AR. By Sat/Sat night...an upper shortwave will drop SE across the Plains into the Great Lakes region...with a SFC cold front dropping SE across the Plains through AR. Expect increasing potential for convection with this SFC front as it passes SE through AR Sat. The potential for seeing any organized SVR Wx with this front looks fairly uncertain at this time. This will be due to either timing of the FROPA...and/or uncertainty in this timing and upper level features/SFC details. Cooler and more stable air will then settle across the region by late in the weekend into early next week behind this cold front. Temps will drop from the 70s and 80s...potentially some low 90s on Fri for highs...to the 60s and 70s behind the front. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Mostly calm and dry conditions are expected through the period. Some light rain chances will be possible across northern Arkansas. MVFR conditions are expected to begin the period this afternoon with VFR conditions likely overnight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 68 83 66 82 / 10 20 80 70 Camden AR 62 84 64 85 / 0 0 50 40 Harrison AR 67 76 62 81 / 40 60 90 50 Hot Springs AR 64 81 63 83 / 10 20 80 40 Little Rock AR 66 83 66 83 / 10 10 70 60 Monticello AR 65 85 66 85 / 0 0 20 40 Mount Ida AR 64 79 63 83 / 20 30 90 30 Mountain Home AR 67 79 63 81 / 30 50 90 60 Newport AR 68 85 66 82 / 10 10 70 70 Pine Bluff AR 64 84 66 84 / 0 0 50 50 Russellville AR 66 80 64 83 / 20 40 90 40 Searcy AR 65 84 64 82 / 10 10 70 70 Stuttgart AR 67 84 67 83 / 0 0 50 60 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...99 AVIATION...73  114 FXUS63 KSGF 141734 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1234 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slight (level 2 of 5) Risk of severe weather this afternoon into tonight, generally along and west of I-44. Low confidence in afternoon supercell development (all hazards possible), with higher confidence in window of severe potential associated with storms moving in from KS and OK (hail and wind risks). - Breezy southerly winds will occur again this afternoon, gusting up to 35 mph outside of thunderstorms. - Additional severe weather potential Wednesday afternoon and evening, and again Friday afternoon and overnight into Saturday. - Marginal excessive rainfall concerns through the week in areas that see repeated strong storms. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 133 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: A diffuse area of surface low pressure with two embedded centers of low pressure is located over the Northern Plains early this morning. Several hours ago, a dryline extended southward from this area of low pressure through central Kansas and Oklahoma before arcing back through northwest Texas. Now, the dryline has sagged back south and is attaching onto another developing lee cyclone in western Kansas with more of a cold front connecting the developing low to the established low pressure center over Iowa. This dryline separates a corridor of very moist air from a much drier air mass, which can be seen in the difference in PW values between the 00Z RAOBs at OUN (1.26") and DDC (0.3"). Upstream, an amplified trough with a closed low over the Mojave Desert is keeping flow progressive. Severe Weather This Afternoon Into Tonight: Tricky forecast with a lot of nuance and subtle mesoscale influences that will drive the ultimate outcome. The surface low near Wisconsin (calling this low #1 for the rest of this discussion) will slide east into the Great Lakes area and lee cyclogenesis will continue in western Kansas (calling this low #2). All guidance seems to agree on the general evolution through the day: as low #2 deepens and begins to creep east, the boundary connecting lows #1 and #2 will begin to lift north as a warm front and moisture will pool along it. Low #2 will push the dryline east and create a dry slot that could extend as far east as the Missouri/Kansas line by this evening, when moisture will surge northward along the boundary and begin cutting off off the "dry slot" between the warm front and leading edge of moisture transport. What we know mostly for sure: Storms are expected to initiate along the southern portion of the dryline in Kansas and Oklahoma this evening and push into our area late tonight as the LLJ ramps back up. These storms are expected to initiate as supercells, and long-track supercells could be sustained if they remain discrete into the overnight hours. With widespread initiation along the dryline expected, it is more likely that the storms initially begin discrete and begin forming into clusters and grow upscale as they approach and enter our area. Low confidence, higher-severe scenario: This is a low confidence scenario, but the potential severity deems it worth mentioning. As the theta-e gradient sags south through the dry slot this afternoon, it could serve as a lifting mechanism for potential afternoon thunderstorms. Some models indicate that there is a few hours roughly between 21-01Z where the dry slot sags south and east, which would orient the gradient from west to east in portions eastern Kansas. Due southerly surface flow would suggest that the warmer, more moist air would overrun the dry slot, which could provide another lifting mechanism for storms, further north of the expected primary dryline initiation in OK. Soundings suggest that the cap will be overcome-able by late afternoon in the north and west portions of our area, so this overrunning, in addition to any associated surface convergence that occurs as a result of these air masses interacting, would provide the final ingredient for supercell development. 40-50kts of westerly shear could favor either discrete supercells or a preceding round of multicell clusters with supercell characteristics, depending on location of initiation and the orientation of the mesoscale boundary at that location. In all scenarios, any discrete supercells that develop/track into our area would be capable of damaging winds up to 70 mph, very large hail (up to the size of tennis balls), and tornadoes. Once storms begin to interact with other nearby storms and cold pools become contaminated, the primary risk would be damaging wind gusts (especially with bowing segments) and embedded spin-up tornadoes if any line segments can become balanced. Wednesday Severe Weather Potential: Wednesday will begin with the aforementioned round of thunderstorms moving in from the southwest. There may be a few rounds of multicell clusters that move through the area before the primary MCS arrives, pending development near Wichita, but the main AM system will be the TX/OK dryline development from Tuesday night. REFS and HREF members both depict several different scenarios as far as potential number of rounds or timing, but overall consensus is that the MCS will arrive around 6-8am on Wednesday morning. The duration, intensity, and speed of this MCS will be very influential on how the afternoon plays out. As a shortwave upper trough ejects into the Northern Plains on Wednesday, an additional round of strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday afternoon and night. The warm front between lows #1 and 2 on Tuesday will push back south as a cold front, likely stalling in Northern Missouri, but the dryline will still be in play in eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Between 1500-3500 J/kg of SBCAPE will be available in these areas, which will have the most time to recover from morning convection. Despite the uncertainty, if isolated storms could develop and break through the cap, thermodynamic profiles favor large hail from resulting supercells. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 133 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Thursday: Uncertainty in Wednesday afternoon/night storm evolutions leads to uncertainty in when rain will move out of the area. Most medium-range models indicate rain will linger through the early morning hours, especially into the Eastern Ozarks, so maintained 30-65% PoPs through 12Z (7am) Thursday. Coverage may become more scattered as the storms progress, which would see PoPs decreased in following forecasts. Storm redevelopment is not expected on Thursday afternoon, with the rest of the afternoon remaining dry. Friday will see a more aggressive cold front approach from the northwest, serving as another source for severe weather this week. Synoptic conditions appear similar to Wednesday, except this time the cold front makes it into our area. Storms could initially be more supercellular in the afternoon warm sector, which appears to include our entire forecast area, before growing into a line of storms with the cold frontal passage Friday night. Temperatures will finally drop out of the 80s on Saturday, with mean temperatures in the 60s for this weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1219 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Scattered to broken stratocumulus was moving across the region this afternoon with high end MVFR to VFR ceilings. With slowly increasing low level moisture continuing to filter into the region cloud cover is expected to continue. Ceilings are expected to lift to VFR, from 6 to 8 kft this evening. However, showers and thunderstorms will also be on the increase across the region this evening. Where showers or storms do occur, MVFR to locally IFR flight conditions will be possible. Surface winds will remain breezy and gusty with peak gusts from 25 to 35kts at times. Winds will remain southerly through the period. With increasing winds aloft, periods of low level wind shear will occur overnight into Wednesday morning as the boundary layer decouples from the surface flow. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 530 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Record High Temperatures: April 14: KSGF: 88/1936 KVIH: 87/2006 KUNO: 86/2024 April 15: KUNO: 84/9999 April 16: KVIH: 85/2006 April 17: KSGF: 87/1937 KVIH: 86/2004 KUNO: 87/2006 Record High Minimum Temperatures: April 14: KSGF: 67/2006 KJLN: 70/2006 KUNO: 63/2012 KVIH: 63/2006 April 15: KSGF: 63/2006 KJLN: 66/2006 KUNO: 62/2006 KVIH: 63/1976 April 17: KSGF: 66/1976 && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Camden LONG TERM...Camden AVIATION...Hatch CLIMATE...Camden  591 FXUS63 KOAX 141735 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1235 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this week, particularly Tuesday and Friday. - Thursday will be a drying day as a ridge moves in between systems. - Possible temperature impacts are expected for those with agricultural interests heading into the weekend. Expected lows Saturday and Sunday morning will be in the 20s and 30s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1201 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The forecast period begins with southwest flow over the region and an upper level trough over northwestern Arizona. Low pressure develops on the lee side of the Rockies overnight, lifting into extreme southwestern Nebraska and central Nebraska by daybreak Tuesday. Tuesday morning, a warm front develops as far north as Omaha/Council Bluffs. Temperatures are expected to climb into the 80s behind the front and the 70s to the north of it. Heading further into the day, the front will sag southward a little bit, nudging a little closer to the NE/KS border. Late afternoon into the evening, instability will increase across southeastern Nebraska/southwestern Iowa. SBCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg and MLCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg are expected. Storms are expected to develop along the warm front during the evening, a few of which may become strong to severe. Large hail and damaging wind gusts appear to be the main concerns with any storms that are able to develop. The severe potential could go into the early morning hours. The active weather pattern will continue through the rest of the week with another shortwave trough lifting out of the Four Corners region Tuesday and reaching southern Nebraska/northern Kansas by Wednesday morning. The low will remain over eastern Nebraska Wednesday morning, with a few showers and thunderstorms possible through the day. The low is expected to lift slightly to the north on Wednesday, bringing some wrap around moisture to northern Nebraska. PoPs will decrease southwest to northeast heading into the evening hours as the low exits. A few isolated strong storms may develop in the southeastern part of the CWA Wednesday evening. Thursday is still expected to be a dry out day as a ridge moves across the region. After the brief cool down (highs in the 70s) on Wednesday, warm air advects into the region. Expect widespread 80s for highs Thursday afternoon. Friday will be a day to watch as we get closer to the end of the week. Low pressure develops on the lee side of the Rockies with an attendant cold front moving into the region. An upper level trough over the Four Corners region will lift to the northeast into the area by Friday night. The cold front will be ushering in much cooler air with WAA and moisture advection ahead of it. There is still uncertainty in where the cold front reaches and the timing of everything. Strong to severe storms with this set up are expected, with all hazards possible. There is still considerable uncertainty in some of the forecast details for this period, so continue to monitor the forecast for potential changes. Cooler air pushing in behind the front will result in a cooler weekend. Saturday morning lows will be in the 30s, with low 30s expected from David City to Thurston and areas north. Those with agricultural interests will want to keep an eye on temperatures. Highs will struggle into the 50s for much of the area. A few locations will not make it into the 50s. Saturday night/Sunday morning will be cold once again with lows ranging from the mid-20s to the mid-30s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1227 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A warm front draped across the region will make for a tricky wind forecast this afternoon. KOMA and KLNK currently reside right along the front, with light and variable winds. Expect the front to push farther north this afternoon, bringing southwesterly winds with occasional gusts up to 20 kts. Scattered showers and storms will be possible this evening and overnight. While the best chance for strong to severe storms will likely remain south and east of the TAF sites, a few weaker storms could develop farther north. The best chance for thunder at KOMA, KLNK, and KOFK will likely be after 06Z tonight and into Wednesday morning, however confidence in storm location is too low to include a mention at this time. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ078-088. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ANW AVIATION...KG  617 FXUS66 KSEW 141736 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 1036 AM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Cool, wet and windy conditions Tuesday into Wednesday with periods of heavy snow in the mountains. Drier weather is in store Thursday and Friday with high pressure. Wetter weather returns over the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...Rain continues to increase across Western Washington this morning. The primary change to the forecast was to issue a Wind Advisory for the Grays Harbor County coast, as well as the Admiralty Inlet and Everett region. Wind gusts will approach 40 to 45 MPH in these areas, with localized power outages possible. Previous discussion below: Wet and windy conditions on tap today as a strong Pacific storm system sweeps through western WA. The main impact will be periods of heavy mountain snow, including snow at all Cascade passes - Winter Storm Warnings are in effect. Snow levels will hover around 3500 ft today but will drop to 1500-2000 tonight into Wednesday. The bulk of the heavy snow will fall tonight but there will be lingering snow showers moving through Wednesday. Mean 48-hr storm total amounts range from 10 to 20" with highest amounts over the volcanoes. Heavy snow is also possible for the Olympics and a Winter Weather Advisory is also in effect (primarily for today and tonight). In addition, it'll be windy today with gusts to 20-30 mph common across most lowland areas. Winds will peak this evening but still remain in 15-25 mph range overnight. A deep upper low will be overhead on Wednesday with cool and showery conditions. As mentioned above, we'll still see snow showers in the mountains although snow rates will ease. The air mass is slightly unstable with a chance of thunderstorms too, especially near the coast. Showers will taper off Wednesday night as the low opens to a trough and exits east. It's not as windy but will be chilly with morning lows in the 30s and highs in the 40s to around 50. We're under dry northerly flow on Thursday as high pressure forms offshore. Morning temperatures will remain cool and in the 30s with freezing temps and frost possible across the south sound. Highs will be a little warmer and in the 50s with sunbreaks. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...High pressure will shift inland on Friday for more dry and stable weather. Morning lows will still track on the cool-side with possible frost around the south sound. The ridge departs on Saturday with a return of moist SW flow. Showers associated with an offshore low may clip the coast during the afternoon and evening. Showers will spread inland on Sunday as the low shifts farther east and inland. By Monday, this system shifts to our south, over CA/NV, with a brief break in the weather over western WA. 33 && .AVIATION...A frontal system will continue to push into the region today, producing a mixed bag of generally MVFR to localized LIFR conditions as precipitation and low clouds spread inland. Visibilities will deteriorate in heavier rain this afternoon, with widespread MVFR/IFR ceilings. Stratiform rain will shift southeastward of the area this evening, with a Puget Sound Convergence Zone favored to develop and showers streaming inland later tonight into Wednesday. Southwest surface winds will become breezy this afternoon/evening as the front passes, becoming generally 10-20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Winds will gradually taper overnight into Wednesday becoming south to southwest 5-10 kt. Thunder is possible (low 15% chance) this afternoon for the coastal terminals and in the convergence zone, with increasing chances (20% chance) along the coast Wednesday, but confidence not high enough to include in the TAFs. KSEA...MVFR this morning in low ceilings and reduced visibility as rain spreads over the terminal. Rain will taper off this evening with showers overnight. MVFR conditions are favored to continue at the terminal through late tonight before VFR conditions develop Wednesday morning. A post-frontal convergence zone is favored to develop later this afternoon, but will likely stay north of the terminal. South to southwest surface winds will continue to increase this morning into the afternoon to 15-20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Winds will ease after 06z Wed becoming south to southeast overnight. A lightning strike or two is possible at the terminal if convergence zone activity drifts southward, but is unlikely. Chances for thunder increase into Wed. 15 && .MARINE...A cold front will move across the waters through today resulting in strong southerly winds. Have issued Gale Warnings for portions of the Coastal Waters, as well as Puget Sound and Admiralty Inlet, due to the probability of gale force wind gusts ranging between 60 to 90 percent. South winds will be strongest near Everett and Admiralty Inlet for the inner waters. Small Craft Advisory winds are expected elsewhere as well. South winds will peak through this evening. West winds will increase through the Strait of Juan de Fuca this evening into tonight. SCA west winds are expected for the central and eastern Strait during this period, but will need to monitor the potential for gale gusts as well. Winds will decrease on Wednesday with onshore flow. Unsettled weather on Wednesday will result in a slight chance for thunderstorms over the waters. Drier weather returns Thursday through Saturday. Seas increase from 4-6 ft to 9-12 ft Tuesday, lingering at 8-10 ft through Thursday, then decreasing to 3-5 ft Friday through Sunday before building back to 8-10 ft. JD/HPR && .HYDROLOGY...No river flooding the next 7 days. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM PDT Wednesday for Cascades of Pierce and Lewis Counties-Cascades of Snohomish and Northern King Counties-Cascades of Southern King County- Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit Counties. Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for Olympics. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM PDT Wednesday for Grays Harbor Bar. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Wednesday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Wednesday for Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands. Small Craft Advisory until noon PDT today for Admiralty Inlet. Gale Warning from noon today to 11 PM PDT this evening for Admiralty Inlet. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for Puget Sound and Hood Canal. Gale Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT this evening for Puget Sound and Hood Canal. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm. Gale Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm- Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 5 AM PDT Thursday for Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm. && $$  067 FXUS62 KKEY 141736 AAA AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Key West FL 136 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all Florida Keys coastal waters overnight. Breezy conditions will persist through at least Tuesday evening. - Little to no measurable rain will maintain continued moderate drought conditions in the Florida Keys for the next week. - Temperatures will remain near normal, with highs in the lower 80s, and lows in the lower 70s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 133 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR and gusty easterly breezes will prevail at the EYW and MTH terminals through the evening. Nocturnal stabilization will result in decreased gusts after 04Z, only to return by mid morning (~14Z) on Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 959 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 High pressure centered between the Atlantic Bight and Bermuda supports fresh northeast to east breezes across the Florida Keys this morning. Dewpoints are in the upper 50s to near 60, making for a relatively comfortable mid-April morning. The 12Z KKEY RAOB sampled a 6.0 degC inversion near 820 mb, with a shallow mixed layer barely capable of small patches of drizzle. The forecast calls for slight rain chances (10% or less) and highs in the lower 80s. The only needed modification this morning was an update to the Fire Weather Forecast that highlights moderate Fire Danger Risk and 20 ft winds greater than 15 mph. With dewpoints in the upper 50s, some areas may see RH values fall into the upper 30s. && .MARINE... Issued at 959 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A high pressure system over the central North Atlantic will maintain fresh northeast to east breezes. Occasional fast- moving light showers cannot be ruled out, especially in the overnight periods. Breezes may briefly lull during the late afternoon and early evening across the Gulf waters due to the heating of South Florida. As the high moves farther eastward and slowly weakens, easterly breezes will modestly slacken for Thursday and Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 82 73 82 73 / 10 10 10 10 Marathon 80 72 80 73 / 10 10 10 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for GMZ052>055-072>075. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...CLR Aviation/Nowcasts....CLR Data Acquisition.....DR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest  932 FXUS63 KDMX 141736 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 1236 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...Updated for the 18z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered severe storms (Level 3 of 5) mainly across east- central Iowa this afternoon/evening. All severe weather hazards remain possible. More widespread storms and locally heavy rainfall expected tonight, especially over the southern half of Iowa. - Additional rounds of severe storms and locally heavy rainfall still expected on Wednesday (eastern half of Iowa) and again on Friday (much of Iowa). Details on those events will be fine tuned in future days. - Warm and breezy today through Friday with highs in the 70s and 80s. Much cooler readings in the 40s and 50s by this weekend, hard freeze likely north. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 251 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Day 2 of the active convective weather week, here we go: Today...Highest Severe Threat: East-central Iowa. Timing: Scattered activity late afternoon/evening, more widespread coverage overnight, especially south half of Iowa. Persistent upper pattern remains locked in over the upper Midwest with a broad southwest flow aloft with several weak embedded shortwaves. As expected, the sfc low has shifted swd over KS/NE and will deepen slightly today with model consensus around 998mb by 00z Wed. The attendant sfc front will extend newd from the low across southeast NE, through central IA, and into the Great Lakes region. With the plume of anomalous low level moisture in place, moderate to strong instability, steep mid level lapse rates, and strong winds aloft /0-6km shear of 50-60kts/ would again support supercell development and all convective hazards should this parameter space be realized. The SPC Day 1 Outlook remains largely unchanged with an Enhanced Risk (Level 3 of 5) across east-central Iowa, with lower probabilities south/north. Examining the latest guidance here are the key points worth mentioning and monitoring. 1) Capping - WAA in the 900-700mb layer will maintain the EML, with model soundings continuing to show moderate MLCIN. The question is whether low level convergence along the front and weak H5 height falls can provide enough lift to erode the cap and allow for CI. Some of the 00Z/14 CAMS struggle to initiate storms in the DMX area during the afternoon and evening, with storm coverage possibly higher in far eastern IA. 2) Some guidance /HRRR and RAP/ indicate a pseudo dryline feature pushing quickly eastward across central IA during the day dropping Tds into the 40s and 50s as far east as I-35. Other guidance /NAM, RRFS, ECMWF/ is not as aggressive with the dryline feature. Should this occur, the drier air could impact CI, storm mode and hazards - lesser TOR threat with higher LCLs. Bottom line, now is not the time to let our guard down. The CAMs yesterday under did storm coverage, and this could happen again. We'll provide updates as the day unfolds and details become clearer. Tonight...regardless of what happens during the day, there is higher confidence that a 40-50kt LLJ will restrengthen after 03Z tonight. This will result in strong moisture convergence and hence widespread convection over at least the southern half the CWA. Soundings indicate that these storms are likely to be elevated with the primary threats hail, perhaps wind if a cluster can organize, and locally heavy rainfall /20% to 40% chance of 1" or greater/. This will likely be a messy mode, with lots of storm interactions and mergers. Wednesday...As noted in previous discussions, the convective evolution today and tonight will strongly influence what happens tomorrow, especially in term of warm sector recovery and position of frontal boundaries. What we do know is that another more potent upper shortwave will lift newd through the upper Midwest on Wednesday, inducing yet another sfc low to move through Iowa. Timing, position, and movement of the sfc features will be critical to the convective evolution. One camp of models has the sfc low moving more quickly ewd /e.g. NAM/ which could keep most activity east of this forecast area. The other global models tend to be slower with the evolution, which would move the sfc low and triple point through Iowa during peak heating. Should this occur, robust storm development, including supercells would again be possible, assuming sufficient destabilizaton. Again, specific details regarding the low level wind profiles, moisture content and LCLs, etc, will have an impact on the things like the tornado potential. The SPC has maintained the Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for now and agree that is reasonable pending the details noted above. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 251 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Will keep this discussion brief per the events above. In the wake of Wednesday's system, a brief period of shortwave ridging should move into the region, yielding a "lull" in the action on Thursday. This respite will be short lived however, as the strongest and most amplified upper trough/closed low moves towards the region on Friday. A broad, elongated sfc low developing over the High Plains will re-induce a strong southerly flow over Iowa with a warm and humid airmass surging back northward. Another round of severe storms is looking likely on Friday along strong cold front that will move quickly from west to east across the region. In fact, the SPC has increased severe probabilities to 30% on Day 4 for this reason, as clearly storm development will not be an issue with such a dynamic system. As the storms and cold front move east of the state Friday night, colder air will wrap in behind the departing low and cannot rule out some snowflakes in northern portions of the state early Saturday. Temperatures will tumble into the 40s and 50s with breezy winds from the northwest on Saturday as well. As noted previously, we'll have to keep an eye out for a hard freeze on Saturday night, especially across northern Iowa. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1236 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Cumulus clouds are developing across much of the area this afternoon and will produce periods of MVFR ceilings in the next few hours, mainly at FOD/MCW/ALO, before rising to VFR. In addition, scattered thunderstorms are forecast this afternoon and evening, then later tonight into Wednesday morning. Confidence in timing and placement is low, but warrants PROB30 groups during the most likely time windows at each terminal. Lowered ceilings and visibilities and gusty winds will be possible in and near any storms. Expect amendments and refinements to the TAFs later today through tonight. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 239 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Multiple rounds of seasonally moderate to heavy rain this week will lead to renewed flooding concerns. Presently the main concern will be possible renewed or additional river flooding. Output from the GFS- and NBM-forced medium-range National Water Model (NWM) and the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System (HEFS) suggest the most likely scenario will be moderate to significant within-bank rises on many rivers and streams, especially across the southeast half of the CWA over the next week. A few locations may see minor river flooding as well. These rises will be due to the additive effect of multiple rounds of rainfall. If rainfall is higher than presently forecast then the risk of several locations seeing minor flooding and a few locations seeing moderate flooding will increase. Flash flooding is less of a concern than river flooding, however the risk is nonzero. The most likely scenario will be ponding of water or low-end flash flooding especially in urban areas or areas that receive repeated heavy rainfall over a relatively short time period. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Fowle LONG TERM...Fowle AVIATION...Lee HYDROLOGY...Zogg  080 FXUS62 KCAE 141737 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 137 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation discussion updated for 18z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1. Well above average temperatures, along with dry weather conditions, will continue into the weekend. - 2. Continued with a limited chance for rain on Sunday, but rainfall would be light and short-lived. - 3. Refreshingly cooler but very dry start to next week. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1: Well above average temperatures, along with dry weather conditions, will continue into the weekend. Getting harder to say the same things, but reality is there is not much that has changed. Upper ridge remains in control through Thursday, then will weaken slightly for Friday as an upper trough passes north of the region. Unfortunately the best moisture tracks northward with that upper trough. The ridge then builds back in for Saturday. This continues to keep hot and dry weather across the region into the early part of this weekend. Temperatures climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s through the end of the week, and can not rule out approaching or breaking a daily record high at some point. Hottest days should be Friday and Saturday, with guidance into the low to middle 90s for most areas. I guess on the bright side, the latest blends appear to keep the highest temperatures through the period below the all time April record highs, which are 96 degrees at both Columbia, SC and Augusta, GA. Key Message 2: Continued with a limited chance for rain on Sunday, but rainfall would be light and short-lived. Upper ridge breaks down by Sunday as a deeper upper trough digs into the eastern portions of the U.S. This will help to drive a cold front into and through the area Sunday. There should be a slight increase in moisture ahead of the front, but not enough to bring widespread needed rain. What may develop and move through is expected to be somewhat scattered and rather light from late morning through the afternoon. The best chance for seeing this still appears as if it will be over the central/northern Midlands Sunday afternoon, with the southern Midlands and the CSRA potentially remaining dry with this front. Key Message 3: Refreshingly cooler but very dry start to next week. Behind the cold front, a break from the Summerlike temperatures will occur as a refreshingly cooler airmass moves into the region to start off next week. We go from temperatures being well above normal, to readings generally near normal for a bit. In addition, a return of much drier air will also be occurring with this airmass. Highs both Monday and Tuesday next week will potentially be in the low to middle 70s. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions generally expected. Southwesterly to South winds around 6-12 kts will persist through this afternoon, with occasional low-end gusts possible during peak heating. Skies will remain mostly clear, aside from passing thin cirrus and a few afternoon fair-weather cumulus. Winds will gradually subside after sunset this evening under mostly clear skies. Similar conditions expected on Wednesday, with winds starting to pick back up shortly after daybreak from the SW to S with mostly clear skies. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...High pressure to dominate through the upcoming week, the chance for widespread restrictions remains low. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CAL AVIATION...ND  204 FXUS66 KOTX 141738 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1038 AM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A robust cold front to deliver valley rain, mountain snow, and gusty winds today through Thursday. - Drier and more seasonal temperatures Friday and Saturday. - Rain chances return Sunday and Monday. && .SYNOPSIS... A cold front passage this afternoon into Wednesday will bring lowland rain, mountain snow, and breezy to windy conditions. Some snow will make it down to the lowlands Wednesday night into Thursday morning on the tail end of the mid-week system. && .DISCUSSION... Today to Thursday: Low pressure in the Gulf of AK drops into our area through Wednesday and gradually shifts out Thursday. This brings modest chances for precipitation, along with a trend toward cooler temperatures. Highs will largely in the mid 40s and 50s. Lows will be in the mid-30s to low 40s tonight, then drop into the mid-20s to mid-30s Wednesday and Thursday night which means some freezing temperatures. Rain and mountain snow chances increase through today from the west as the low approaches, becoming likely in the Cascades and northern counties by late morning to afternoon and over most of the remaining CWA late Tuesday afternoon/evening into Wednesday. The exception will be over central WA where the shadowing will keep PoPs to around 40-50%, highest Tuesday overnight into early Wednesday. Overall chances start to wane from the west Wednesday night into Thursday and then start to end completely heading into Thursday night. There is about 15 percent chance for embedded t-storms over the northeast CWA Wednesday afternoon/early evening. Snow levels around 3.5-4.5kft Tuesday afternoon drop to 2-3kft Wednesday afternoon and 1-1.5kft by Thursday morning. So look for mountain snow and lowland rain to start, changing to a lowland mix or even all snow overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning. Precipitation chances start to wane by then, but it still leave the potential for some accumulation in the lowlands that time frame. The biggest snow impacts are expected in the mountain passes. Here are some probabilities from Tuesday to Thursday morning (48-hours): 2 4 6 8 12 Stevens Pass 100% 95% 85% 65% 20% Snoqualmie Pass 100% 85% 65% 45% 15% Lookout Pass 100% 80% 50% 35% 10% Sherman Pass 50% 20% 5% 0% 0% Winter storm warnings remain in effect over western Chelan county and Winter Weather Advisories are in place over western Okanogan County this afternoon and tonight; over the higher elevations of the Okanogan Highlands this afternoon through Wednesday, and now over the central ID Panhandle, above 3000 feet, from this evening through Wednesday night. The chance for 0.1 inches of snow at select locations outside the mountains for Wednesday night into Thursday AM: Pullman 60%, Sandpoint 55%, Spokane 20%. Rain amounts around 0.25 to 0.60 inches are forecast around the east third of WA and ID, with higher amounts in the higher terrain. This could cause some minor flooding around small streams and creeks and lead to some ponding of water in poor drainage areas and field flooding. The NWRFC forecast some rises on mainstem rivers into midweek, though none reach action stage. Paradise Creek, however, could approach action stage toward later Wednesday afternoon into evening. So this will be monitored, because it could easily push above action stage (or more). Winds will remain breezy/gusty through this period. Southwest winds today at 10-20 mph with gusts of 25-40 mph. Winds turn more west-northwest Wednesday and Thursday, with similar speeds but gusts around 20-30 mph. Friday to Monday: High pressure and drier weather comes in Friday, but another low approaches for the latter part of the weekend increasing rain and mountain rain/snow chances Saturday night into Monday. The primary low stays off the coast until Monday, so PoPs are 20-40%, up to near 60% at the immediate Cascade crest and central Panhandle Mountains on Monday. It will be a bit breezy and temperatures will be near normal, except Sunday when values are forecast to be slightly above normal. /Solveig && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS: The next system moves in today into tonight with rain and a return to MVFR at GEG/SFF/COE/PUW. Downslope flow off the Cascades will keep conditions VFR at KEAT/KMWH, while similar effects off the Blue Mountains keep LWS VFR until after the cold front passage Wednesday morning. CIGS are expected to degrade further as well for KPUW, becoming IFR around 15z Wed. The system will also usher in gusty west-southwest winds through the TAF period, shifting to west-northwest behind the cold front in Central WA Wednesday morning. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Moderate confidence in CIGS dropping to MVFR for KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW tonight. Moderate confidence in KPUW dropping to IFR 15-18z Wed. High confidence that VFR conditions persist through the TAF period at KEAT/KMWH. JW ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 51 38 49 30 49 29 / 50 90 70 30 30 0 Coeur d'Alene 49 37 46 30 47 29 / 50 100 90 50 50 10 Pullman 51 38 44 29 44 29 / 20 90 100 60 50 10 Lewiston 58 44 52 34 50 34 / 10 80 100 50 40 10 Colville 52 35 51 28 53 26 / 80 90 60 30 30 0 Sandpoint 46 37 44 30 45 28 / 80 100 90 60 70 20 Kellogg 46 37 43 29 41 28 / 60 100 100 70 80 30 Moses Lake 57 40 56 30 58 31 / 30 30 30 10 0 0 Wenatchee 55 37 52 34 55 34 / 40 50 20 10 0 0 Omak 56 37 53 31 58 31 / 60 60 30 10 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM PDT Wednesday for Okanogan Highlands. Winter Storm Warning from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM PDT Wednesday for Western Chelan County. Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM PDT Wednesday for Western Okanogan County. ID...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 5 AM PDT Thursday for Central Panhandle Mountains. && $$  444 FXUS63 KICT 141739 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1239 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widely scattered thunderstorms, some severe, are possible this afternoon and tonight and again late Wednesday and Friday. - Extreme grassland fire danger west of I-135 this afternoon and early evening. - A cool-down is expected for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A mid/upper trough over the Southwest is progged to move ENE into the Central Rockies late today before emerging over the Central High Plains late tonight into early Wednesday. Strong southwest winds through the column are progged to develop downstream over the Central Plains. Much like yesterday, the dryline will be on the move and is expected to mix eastward as we move through the day with deep layer unidirectional flow anticipated in a deeply mixed pbl. However, low level winds are progged to back late in the day as the sfc low moves into Central Kansas. This will allow the low level moisture to return across south central and parts of central KS late in the afternoon or early in the evening which makes for a complicated forecast. The better height falls and large-scale forcing for ascent are expected to arrive this evening and tonight when storm coverage may increase as the LLJ ramps up across south central Kansas. The warm/moist sector is progged to have mid 60 dewpoints resulting in 2500+ J/KG of MLCAPE with steep mid-level lapse rates and deep layer shear of 50+ knots which should support some supercell storms in the warm sector. A tornado threat is expected to increase, especially in the early evening as the LLJ ramps up. The threat for severe storms may linger beyond midnight into the early morning hours. Another round of severe storms will be possible on Wednesday afternoon and evening. There is a possibility that we have morning showers and storms which could impact what unfolds during the afternoon hours. But given quality moisture in the warm sector and what appears to be rather weak inhibition, we may not need much of a break before storms redevelop. As the shortwave trough translates eastward away from the area, we will see mid/upper ridging build over the central CONUS on Thursday resulting in mild an dry conditions. Afternoon highs are expected to climb into the 80s areawide. Another mid/upper trough will move out of the Northern Intermountain Region and into the Rockies late in the day on Friday. Ahead of this system, a nocturnal LLJ is expected to nose into south central KS early on Friday where we could see a rogue storm or two during the predawn hours. However, better chances for showers and storms are expected to arrive late in the day and into the evening hours. We continue to see some differences in how this feature will emerge from the Rockies late on Friday which will impact the magnitude and coverage of severe storms with low confidence in the details at this time. Sat-Mon...A stable post-frontal regime is anticipated across the area on Saturday with seasonably cool air expected. Afternoon highs are only expected to climb into the lower 60s for most areas. As high pressure settles over the area Sat night into early Sun we could see some areas of frost develop as low temperatures fall into the 30s. A mid/upper ridge is progged to translate eastward into the central CONUS Sun-Mon with rising heights/increasing thickness supporting rising temperatures across the area. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1239 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail in central KS through the end of the period, while sites in south central and southeast KS may see MVFR ceilings tonight into Wednesday morning. Gusty south/southwest winds will continue this afternoon into the overnight period before weakening Wednesday morning and turning more to the west, especially at central KS sites. Chances for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon will begin in south central KS with an eastward progression through the evening and overnight. There remains some uncertainty as to how far west storms develop; as such, maintained the PROB30 groups for ICT and CNU with this cycle with slight changes to expected window for impacts. Storms may even develop as far west as HUT, though confidence is too low for a mention there for the 18Z issuance. Finally, low-level moisture flowing into southeast KS through the overnight period is forecast to bring MVFR to near-IFR ceilings to CNU early Wednesday morning. Short-term models give these low chances (20%) for impacting ICT, so stay tuned to upcoming forecast cycles as more information becomes available. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Extreme grassland fire danger is expected again today for areas west of Interstate 135 with very dry air and strong southwest winds developing this afternoon. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 9 pm. Dry air will linger across central Kansas through much of the week and with breezy southerly winds returning on Thursday and Friday, a very high grassland fire danger will return for parts of central Kansas. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033- 047-048-050-067-082-091. && $$ DISCUSSION...MWM AVIATION...JWK FIRE WEATHER...ADK  011 FXUS63 KDLH 141740 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN Issued by National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1240 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cloudy today as clouds emanate from Lake Superior, foggy conditions possible closer to the Lake. - Light rain with a few rumbles of thunder across northern MN today - Better chances for severe weather to return to the Northland on Friday - Snow possible late Friday and into Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 247 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Current Conditions/Today: Thunderstorm activity has pushed well off to our southeast this morning with some scattered rain showers still appearing on radar across the Northland. Later this morning an upper level trough will eject out the Red River Valley and produce some rain showers across northern MN. There is some very weak MUCAPE in the morning that could lead to a few rumbles of thunder but overall not expecting much in way of impactful rain or storms. Look for this area of showers to moves west to east exiting the Arrowhead in the afternoon. Today will also see very cloudy conditions as easterly winds across the region will help spread the influence of Lake Superior through the Northland. Satellite imagery as of 3AM shows this expansive cloud has already engulfed NW WI and is quickly heading towards the Iron Range and the Brainerd Lake Region. Model guidance is in good agreement with keeping this blanket expanding farther east through the day. Foggy conditions will also be prevalent, especially the closer you get to Lake Superior. With this in mind we have dropped high temperatures 2-5F across the region from what the previous forecast package had. Wednesday/Thursday: We get a small reprieve in the active weather pattern for Wednesday and Thursday as the Northland finds itself in between low pressure systems with dry air aloft keeping precipitation at bay. The only exception to this may be our far southeast counties. The 00Z suite of deterministic guidance has trended farther southeast with the system but a quick glance at both the AIGFS and EC-AIFS shows northwest WI still getting clipped as the system tracks towards Lake Michigan. For now, we will keep a mention of low end PoPs of 30-40%. With the surface boundary staying well off to our south some elevated convection would be the primary concern with small hail being the main hazard if any storms do manage to form. The other low pressure to the northwest looks to stay that way with good model consensus propagating it into Ontario. Thursday will be quiet with a stalled out boundary draped across northern MN and a strong southerly push of winds through the day. Highs will climb into the 60s and 70s with the traditional cooler by the Lake type of day. Friday into the Weekend: Friday is still shaping up to be our next active and impactful weather day. An upper level trough digs into the four corners region with an elongated system developing across the Upper Midwest and down into the Central Plains. The northern most low pressure looks to make its way into northern MN with a cold front dropping south across the Brainerd Lakes. Ahead of this boundary will be a broad warm sector that will see increased dewpoints surging into the region. We will also likely see a gulf connection boosting our PWATs and adding fuel to the atmosphere for storms to develop. Current guidance would suggest moderate instability with adequate bulk shear for severe storms to develop. Details will have to be refined as we get closer but at this time it looks like all hazards will be possible ahead of the cold front. As Friday's system departs we will see a plunge of cold air crashing in from the northwest Friday night and lingering into Saturday. Wrap around moisture will fall as snow with some light accumulations overnight possible. However, given how warm we have been our ground temperatures will likely make quick work of this snow. There is a signal for increased rates late Saturday morning into the afternoon as the upper level trough pivots over the region providing a boost to synoptic forcing. The current NBM guidance wants to have a couple of inches of accumulation for Saturday, but not sure that seems reasonable even with the boost in forcing. High temperatures are still expected to get above freezing and the high sun angle for mid April should also work against these totals. SLRs are currently 15- 16:1 which seems way too high for Saturday afternoon, 10:1 max would probably be generous. Further adjustments will likely be needed. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Challenging forecast with light winds, low clouds, and pockets of fog lingering across the region. For the rest of today, expect MVFR/IFR stratus to persist across the Minnesota TAF sites, but could have a few hours of VFR conditions this afternoon at KHYR. Overnight a weak area of high pressure will linger across the region, meaning similar weather conditions, so brought back the IFR/LIFR ceilings and visbys tonight into Wednesday morning. The precipitation chances have ended, so did not include any mention of rain in the TAFs. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 247 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The gustiest northeast winds across Lake Superior have passed with a few gusts around 20 kts still being observed across the Lake. Small Craft Advisories have been canceled. There is an expansive cloud deck emanating from Lake Superior that is expected to remain in place through today and into tomorrow. This cloud deck may sink lower to the Lake leading to dense fog, however, webcams have not shown this development yet and model guidance is split on whether this will come to fruition. A marine dense fog advisory may be needed at later this morning. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Britt AVIATION...WFO MPX MARINE...Britt  339 FXUS65 KVEF 141742 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 1042 AM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Clear skies and warming temperatures expected Wednesday and Thursday with gusty winds and cool temperatures return late-week. && .DISCUSSION...Today through Monday. This morning, very light radar returns continue across far southern Nevada and far northwestern Arizona. As the associated area of low pressure continues to push eastward, skies will clear behind it, allowing for a mostly sunny Tuesday. Minor ridging sets up today and Wednesday, allowing temperatures to increase back toward seasonal normals. This will be brief, though, as a closed area of low pressure is expected to drop through the southern Great Basin from the Gulf of Alaska late-week. This system has cold origins, and as a result, will bring along with it a stark temperature drop as its cold front pushes through the region. Along with a drop in temperatures, gusty pre-frontal southwest winds can be expected areawide on Thursday, with wind gusts typically between 35 and 45 mph with greater values in the higher terrain. Expect gusty post- frontal north winds Thursday night and Friday, with strongest wind speeds along north-south valleys, such as along the Colorado River Valley. Will continue to assess the need and timing of wind-related headlines over the next few shifts. Precipitation chances largely remain north of our forecast area, though portions of Lincoln County have a 20 to 30 percent chance of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms on Thursday. Snow levels rapidly drop below 3000 feet, so a dusting of snow in the higher elevations of northern Lincoln County cannot be ruled out. High pressure returns over the weekend, allowing skies to clear and temperatures to rebound back closer to seasonal normals. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Through Wednesday morning, winds will generally follow typical daily directional patterns with speeds remaining under 8KT. Late morning, winds are expected to settle out of the south around 8-10KT, before veering to the southwest and becoming elevated and at least intermittently gusty toward the end of the forecast period. VFR conditions prevail, though FEW-SCT clouds around 8-10kft are expected this afternoon, clearing out tonight, with increasing mid-level and high clouds expected across the area Wednesday afternoon. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...The next 24 hours, winds across the region will generally follow typical daily directional patterns with speeds around 5-10KT. The main exception will be across the western Mojave Desert, including KDAG, where westerly winds will hover between 10-15KT through early Wednesday morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail with FEW-SCT clouds around 8-12kft this afternoon expected to gradually lift and clear out overnight. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Soulat AVIATION...Phillipson For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter  313 FXUS64 KMOB 141743 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1243 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1237 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Moderate to extreme drought, with little to no rain over the next 7 days, will exacerbate wildfire activity. - Patchy to areas of fog development, some of which could be dense, is possible over the next few nights. - A moderate rip current risk is expected for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches through midweek. && .UPDATE... Issued at 215 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Current observations and satellite imagery suggests fog has started to expand across the areas mainly north of I-10. Looking at probabilistic guidance, most of the area is flirting in the 60 to 80% of visibilities less than 1/4 mile after about 4 am through around 9 am. As a result, we have wen't ahead and issued a dense for advisory for our area. This looks to be mainly confined to our area underneath the surface high. Fog should quickly mix out after sunrise. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1243 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Light southerly surface winds will occur through the week as a surface ridge remains intact across the southeast states and much of the Gulf. Atmospheric moisture will remain very low despite the southerly winds off the Gulf with PWATs generally ranging from one- half to eight-tenths of an inch. We should see a slight uptick in moisture on Thursday with PWATs nearing one inch as a shortwave moves east across the Tennessee River Valley, but no rain is expected for our area due to a lack of forcing and deep moisture. In fact, the atmosphere above 810mb remains impressively dry due to strong subsidence under the upper ridge that has gripped our region. The next large upper trough will exit the Rockies on Friday and move over the Great Plains to the Mississippi River by week's end. There are no timing differences between the ECMWF and GFS at this time, but the ECMWF does have a higher amplified trough over the eastern CONUS on Sunday compared to the GFS, with the base further south. We could see some isolated to low-end scattered showers and perhaps a storm or two Saturday night into Sunday as a cold front associated with the upper trough passes through our area. Most of this precipitation will likely be confined to areas northwest of I-65 as the line is expected to quickly dissipate. The light southerly wind flow mentioned earlier persisting all week does maintain some boundary-layer moisture across our area that should result in patchy to areas of late night/early morning fog over the course of the week. Visibilities are expected to lower to between 1 to 3 miles across much of the area late overnight into early morning, with patchy dense fog not being ruled out. Due to low confidence in the specific locations potentially being impacted by areas of dense fog, we will just need to see how thing unfold before needing any Dense Fog Advisories. High temperatures inland will reach the middle 80s today through Thursday and likely reach the upper 80s on Friday and Saturday. These highs will be about 5 to 10 degrees above normal today through Thursday and 7 to 12 degrees above normal on Friday and Saturday. Lows inland will be in the middle 50s to around 60 degrees tonight and in the upper 50s to lower 60s Wednesday night through the remainder of the week. Coastal lows will range from 60 to 65 degrees tonight and then in the middle 60s through the remainder of the week. Cooler temperatures will occur early next week behind the frontal passage with highs on Sunday in the middle 70s to lower 80s, with lows Sunday night dipping into the upper 40s to middle 50s. Beach Forecast: A Moderate Risk of rip currents is expected to continue through Friday. /22 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1237 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions prevail through early this evening. Occasional gusts of 20-25 knots will accompany the southerly to south- southeasterly winds of 10-15 knots this afternoon before turning calm overnight. Another round of LIFR to VLIFR visibility is possible after midnight as fog re-develops across inland areas. Conditions at the coastal terminals will likely be MVFR to IFR around sunrise. 07/mb && .MARINE... Issued at 215 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow is expected through the forecast. Winds look to turn northerly and increase behind a cold front on Sunday into Sunday night. BB-8 && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 104 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Looking at fire weather concerns over the forecast area, with drought conditions, and dry fuels, a Moderate Risk of a Significant Fire Potential is in effect through the week. Winds remain light enough and afternoon relative humidity values a bit too moist to hoist a by the criteria Red Flag Watch/Warning at this time for the next few days. Still, playing this by ear. /16 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 82 61 83 64 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 79 63 79 65 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 77 65 77 66 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 87 55 87 56 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 86 57 86 61 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 85 56 85 59 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 85 57 86 56 / 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$  606 FXUS63 KFGF 141744 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1244 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a 30% chance for advisory level winter impacts from accumulating snow and gusty winds Friday to Saturday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 735 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The 500 mb wave circulation went from just north of Bismarck thru Devils Lake area to Cavalier. Main deformation zone precip was just west of the upper low where rain then snow fell with pocket of heavy snow Rugby to Rolla and northern Towner county ND and northwest Cavalier county ND. 6 inches northeast of Rolla. That band of precip is moving out, with lingering rain showers to the south and east of the upper low in the north valley and far NW MN moving out midday. Thinking any snow risk is now in Canada. UPDATE Issued at 1154 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Rain showers starting to move into the western Devils Lake Basin as the next shortwave approaches. Also getting a few weak thunderstorms in the southern Red River Valley that are not handled well by CAMs but are with around 250 J/kg of MU CAPE. This activity will continue to push eastward across our area overnight, and many of the ensemble members transition at least part of the precipitation in northeastern ND and northwestern MN over to snow. 00Z HREF has 40 to 50 percent chances for an inch or more of snow, although fairly warm pavement temps will mute the impact. Will keep the SPS going as advisory level impacts seem less than 20 percent. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 324 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will remain in place over much of the West to Northern Plains this week. This will house numerous shortwave troughs moving through the exit region of the broader upper trough, with this upper trough's axis finally shifting eastward through the central CONUS late this week. This synoptic pattern will provide intervals of precipitation today and Tuesday, as well as Friday to Saturday. This includes potential for snow and associated winter impacts both Tuesday and later this week. More details on this below. With the upper trough passage through our area around Friday to Saturday increasing chances for precipitation, there is a scenario where increasing instability works its way into Minnesota and/or eastern Dakotas to allow for thunderstorms. At this time, it remains unclear if this will occur as there is much uncertainty in numerous preceding shortwave trough passages through the Plains and Midwest that will dictate this buoyant air mass's location. The upper troughing will be oriented in such a way that above average temperatures will overspread our portion of the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest, with highs in the 60s and 70s currently forecast Wednesday and Thursday. With the incoming upper trough passage late this week, a cooler, more seasonable air mass will envelope Northern Plains into Upper Midwest. ...Potential winter impacts Tuesday morning... There is high confidence in an area of precipitation moving generally southwest to northeast across our area north of I-94 corridor. A large subset of high resolution guidance reveals temperatures in northeast ND into far northwest MN will be close enough to freezing to allow some of this precipitation to fall as snow. In fact, relatively strong ascent with rich moisture feeding into the ascent will allow for heavy snow rates between 1-2 inches per hour. Given the relatively fast forward movement of this precipitation, the time for heavy snow rates to reside over any particular location in these areas will be brief (i.e. 1-3 hours at any location). While majority of high resolution guidance depicts this scenario, there are still differences in where exactly this occurs within these region as the areas potentially impacted by snow will likely be quite narrow. Additionally, there is anticipation of relatively warm surface temperatures leading to melting on contact. Although, these higher snow rates will likely overcome warm surfaces to allow for at least some accumulation on non-grassy surfaces. Anywhere from 1-5 inches is liable to fall, with more than 3 inches more likely to be on grassy surfaces. Heavy snow rates will greatly reduce visibility, and may lead to slippery roads from a slushy accumulation. And with this occuring during the morning commute, we've amplified messaging of this potential via graphical messaging as well as issuing a Special Weather Statement. ...Late week winter impact potential... Ensemble guidance continues to cluster toward a scenario that features heavy snow in one or two more consolidated systems' deformation zones. However, most guidance favors majority of this snow to remain in Canada. There is still a subset of guidance that brings snow into our area, mainly north of Highway 200. This includes snow accumulation up to 5 inches. Snow may also coincide with gusty winds to introduce impacts from blowing snow and reduced visibility into this scenario. Additionally, ensembles now reveal a potential scenario that brings a second wave of precipitation and snow through the region on Saturday. This widens the window of when winter impacts may occur from solely Friday to now Friday into Saturday. Ensemble guidance has also trended some what down on potential for warning level impacts from 6 or more inches of snow to be less than 10%. However, the chance for advisory level winter impacts remains at around 30%. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1244 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Precipitation and fog have ended, however low stratus (MVFR and pockets of IFR) over eastern ND and northwest MN. There is an expected clearing trend in this stratus layer from SD into southeast ND and eventually northeast ND through the afternoon and early evening (south to north), however northern and eastern locations in ND and west central MN may see stratus linger into the early evening. Additional stratus and the potential for light fog may redevelop late in the evening/overnight period over north central MN (best chances at KBJI). Increasing southerly winds late tonight into Thursday morning over eastern ND should help keep VFR conditions in place for those locations (limiting the potential for radiational fog/stratus). && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Riddle/JR DISCUSSION...CJ AVIATION...DJR  862 FXUS66 KSGX 141744 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 1044 AM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Today and Wednesday will be dry with weakening winds with Wednesday high temperatures warming to around average. Stronger onshore flow will spreading cooling inland on Thursday with southwest to west winds for the mountains and deserts gusting to 35 to 45 mph. The flow will turn offshore on Friday with warming for the coast and valleys and continued cooling for the mountains and deserts. Northeast winds along and below the coastal slopes of the mountains will gust to 35 to 45 mph. Warmer inland with weaker winds for next weekend with high temperatures warming to around 5 to 10 degrees above average on Sunday. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... .SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)... Onshore flow will weaken today with warming and drying through Wednesday with Wednesday high temperatures warming to around average. High temperatures on Wednesday will range from the mid to upper 60s near the coast to the 70s for the valleys with the lower deserts in the upper 80s. On Thursday, a low pressure system moving inland through the northern Rockies and Great Basin will bring stronger onshore flow to southern California. High temperatures will cool a few to around 5 degrees with high temperatures on Thursday ranging from the mid to upper 60s near the coast to the lower to mid 70s for the Inland Empire with the 80s for the lower deserts. There will be stronger and gusty southwest to west winds for the mountains and deserts with gusts to 35 to 45 mph. There will also be an increase in clouds for late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. && .LONG TERM (Friday through Monday)... The flow will turn offshore on Friday with northeast winds along and below the coastal slopes of the mountains gusting to 35 to 45 mph. High temperatures on Friday will cool a few to around 5 degrees while the coast and valleys warm 5 to 10 degrees. High temperatures on Friday will range from the lower to mid 70s near the coast to the upper 70s to mid 80s for the western valleys and inland coastal areas with the lower deserts in the lower to mid 80s. There will be inland warming with weaker winds for next weekend. High temperatures on Saturday will warm around 5 degrees for the mountains, deserts, and inland valleys with the deserts warming another 5 degrees on Sunday. With the warming, Sunday high temperatures will be around 5 to 10 degrees above average, ranging from around 70 near the coast to the upper 70s to mid 80s for the valleys with the lower deserts in the lower to mid 90s. For early next week, a low pressure system will move to near the West Coast bring cooling and a chance for precipitation with continuing model differences in the timing and amplitude of this system. && .AVIATION... 141745Z...Coasts/Valleys...SCT clouds above 3000 ft MSL through the afternoon. Patchy low clouds to gradually form and increase after 10Z Wed. Any cigs that form would be around 1500 feet MSL. Low clouds will scatter out 16-18Z Wed. Mountains/Deserts...Mostly clear with VFR conditions will prevail into Wed. && .MARINE... Wind gusts could briefly reach 20 kt Thursday afternoon and evening. Otherwise, no hazardous marine conditions are expected through Sunday. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...17 AVIATION/MARINE...CO  208 FXUS63 KGRR 141744 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 144 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe thunderstorms overnight into early Tuesday Morning - Severe Thunderstorms possible late Tuesday into early Wednesday - Flood Potential remains elevated through the week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 259 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Severe thunderstorms overnight into early Tuesday Morning A boundary continues to move through northern lower Michigan overnight through early this morning. Severe storms with large hail have already moved along and north of the US 10 corridor. While there remains some CIN, upwards of -250 J/kg south of that corridor, there is just enough mixed layer CAPE to allow for the strong 0-3KM shear and LLJ to continue storm generation. Latest CAMS, especially the HRRR, have the convection from across Wisconsin swinging through the region This morning with strong to severe storms moving through central Lower Michigan through sunrise. Strongest storms should be north of I 96 with the northern boundary north of US 10. DCAPE with frontal passage will be 600 J/kg at best. However, mid level lapse rates are trending around 7 C/km and the shear vector remains west to east, which could allow stronger winds to mix to the surface around sunrise. So while damaging winds are possible, large hail remains our biggest concern. The line is expected to begin to move into the region around 09, along with the mid level low and corresponding wave. That wave along with the LLJ will move into southern Quebec and to the east by 12Z which will end this morning's threat of severe weather. - Severe Thunderstorms possible late Tuesday into early Wednesday Any tertiary showers this morning should linger to the south and will be in more stable air and not expected to be strong or severe. Latest SPC Day 1 Outlook for later Today into Wednesday continues to have almost all of lower Michigan in a slight risk. The enhanced risk has shifted to cover most of southern Wisconsin. The temperature of Lake Michigan shouldn't impede storms as it should provide a cold pool for them to move over. The persistent southwesterly flow should correspond with warm air advection ahead of the incoming surface low. That should allow the atmosphere to recover by late this afternoon ahead of this afternoon and evening's system. Daytime heating of 70s to low 80s, especially south of I 96 should provide MLCAPE of 1 to 2K J/kg. The wind profiles favor supercell formation. Latest CAMS continue to have storms forming after 22Z and continuing through at least the first half of the overnight period as the strong 850mb jet of upwards of 45 kts should continue to fuel storm generation into early Wednesday. Based on those factors, there remains a good chance for strong to severe storms late Tuesday afternoon with damaging winds and large hail the main threats. However, with low LCL's and strong shear, an isolated tornado is possible. - Flood Potential remains elevated through the week A flood watch will remain into Wednesday. Heavy downpours from the latest storms has QPE of around 2.0 inches of rainfall with QPF to FFG of upwards of 150 percent. The mid level flow has kept the storms to train through the US 10 corridor and that pattern should continue until the above mentioned boundary moves through after 12Z. The heavy downpour threat will shift to south of the I 96 corridor today, however QPF through Thursday remains a widespread 2 to 3 inches. So urban, stream and flash flooding remains a concern. For information on the increasing flood threat, see the Hydrology section below. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 140 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions will prevail over West Michigan through this afternoon, along with SW breezes gusting to near 20 kts and SCT-BKN 4-5kft CU/SC. This tranquil weather will not last. Thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across parts of WI/IL/IA. These storms will likely congeal into one or perhaps two solid lines of strong-severe thunderstorms as they race eastward across Lake Michigan. Storms will arrive at MKG around 01Z, GRR/AZO/BTL roughly 01-02Z, and LAN/JXN around 03Z. Strong gusty winds and IFR conditions will accompany these storms. The storms will subside overnight, though MVFR conditions and a chance for showers will persist through Wednesday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 302 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Special Marine warnings for thunderstorms will continue this morning with hazardous winds and waves for small craft are expected this morning. Strong to severe storms are expected through sunrise. Thunderstorms, possibly severe thunderstorms with hail and wind, are possible over Lake Michigan this evening/tonight and Tuesday evening/night. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 302 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .Update... Another 2 to 3 inches has fallen upstream and should make its way to the Croton gauge later today. ..Previous... The further north you go in the Lower Peninsula, the more significant the flooding situation becomes. Around an inch of rain fell across much of the area along and north of the Muskegon River watershed over the weekend, with a much heavier swath of 2-4 inches across the Manistee River watershed and the headwaters portions of the Muskegon basin. Coming on the heels of one of the wettest springs on record so far, and in the midst of a significantly active (and wet) ongoing weather pattern, the water that's already on the ground is going to produce renewed flooding on the Muskegon River (and many others rivers further north as well). With another 2-3" of rain over the next few days in the Muskegon, we're now expecting the most significant flood on the Muskegon River since the flood of 2018. If the next few days of rains overperform (which is entirely possible), the forecasted crests will go even higher. If you live near the Muskegon river, now is the time to prepare for significant flooding. Meanwhile, further south, conditions in the Grand River basin are in slightly better shape, although water is still high from all of the recent rains. We've finally dropped below stage at all locations in the basin, but that trend will soon reverse as water levels start to climb again throughout the week. With an additional 2-3" of rain expected in this area as well, it's beginning to look like the region will generally repeat the flood levels experienced last week. In addition to the river flooding, some of the thunderstorms we're expecting over the next few days could be very slow moving over the same areas repeatedly. If this happens, some localized rain totals of 4+ inches are possible in the next few days. If this happens over one of the urban areas, significant fast- developing urban flooding is possible. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Flood Watch through late Thursday night for MIZ037>040-043>046- 050>052. Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through late Thursday night for MIZ056>059-064>067-071>074. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ844>846. Dense Fog Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ848-849. && $$ DISCUSSION...Ceru AVIATION...Smith MARINE...CAS HYDROLOGY...AMD  317 FXUS66 KMFR 141744 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1044 AM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New Aviation Section... .AVIATION (18Z TAFs)... A front will pass through the region this evening. This will result in widespread precipitation chances through tonight into Wednesday afternoon. As a result, MVFR conditions will likely become common across the area. Probabilities are not high enough to include IFR ceilings, but rainfall intensity along the coast could bring visibilities down to IFR conditions. Probabilities were not high enough to include IFR (ceilings/visibilities) for inland sites at this time, but there is an 8%-18% chance for IFR conditions inland. -Guerrero && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 546 AM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026/ DISCUSSION...A shortwave ridge passing over northern California and southern Oregon will allow for a period of calm this morning and afternoon. Daytime highs will warm slightly from Monday's temperatures, and clouds will linger through the afternoon west of the Cascades while east side areas may see some clear skies. A cold front will bring some coastal showers this evening, with more widespread rainfall expected on Wednesday. Coastal cities look to see 1 to 1.5 inches of rainfall, while coastal ranges could see around 2 inches. Rainfall in the Umpqua Valley is forecast to be between 0.75 and 1 inch, with other valleys and basins seeing lower amounts through Wednesday. With snow levels expected to hover at 4500-5500 feet from the front's arrival through Wednesday morning, winter impacts look to be limited to the Cascades. A Winter Weather Advisory is in place for areas near and north of Crater Lake and at elevations above 5000 feet from Wednesday morning through Thursday morning, given that snowfall in this area is expected to make travel hazardous. Snowfall amounts of 12 to 16 inches are forecast over the Cascades on Wednesday. Current SPC guidance shows 50-90% chances for snowfall rates of 1 inch per hour late Wednesday morning into early in the afternoon. Gusty winds are expected over elevated terrain on Wednesday, especially east of the Cascades. Gusts along Winter Rim and the Warner Mountains have 50-80% chances to reach 45 mph in that late Wednesday morning-early afternoon timeframe, per HREF probabilistic guidance. Gusts of 20-30 mph are more widespread across east side areas. Activity across the area eases on Wednesday evening, but a cold air mass looks to bring impactful overnight low temperatures for west side valleys. The Rogue, Applegate, Illinois, and western Klamath County valleys are all forecast to see lows from the mid 20s to low 30s on these nights. These temperatures would bring chances of frost or freezing conditions. East of the Cascades, overnight lows look to be in the mid teens to low 20s. Chilly nights aside, Thursday looks to be a quieter day. While snow levels drop to 1500-2000 feet in the morning, declining activity will minimize the chance of impactful winter conditions at lower elevations. Another shortwave ridge looks to bring warmer temperatures and dry conditions on Friday and Saturday. Long-term deterministic imagery is showing more agreement of a low pressure system approaching the area from the northwest, bringing periods of southwest or southerly flow. While details are still coarse, the tight pressure gradients aloft in imagery tend to indicate stronger winds, and southerly flow patterns tend to deliver moderate to heavy precipitation to the Mount Shasta area and coastal terrain. Details remain coarse for this timeframe, so stay tuned for additional details on continuing active weather. -TAD AVIATION...14/12Z TAFs...VFR levels continue across northern California and southern Oregon under mid to high level ceilings. These levels are expected to continue through this afternoon. An approaching cold front will bring rainfall over west side areas, with the possibility of MVFR (or locally lower) ceilings and visibilities. The highest precipitation amounts will be along the Oregon coast and over the Cascades. Snow showers are expected to develop over the Cascades, and rainfall will start to develop east of the Cascades towards the end of the TAF period. -TAD MARINE...Updated 100 AM PDT Tuesday, April 14, 2026...Seas will stay below advisory level strength through this morning. A front will start passing through the region later today. This will result in widespread precipitation, strong winds, and steep seas this evening and into Wednesday. Localized areas of very steep and hazardous seas may be possible north of Coos Bay as the front initially starts to transition over the waters. Steep seas will continue behind the front through Thursday afternoon. A thermal trough may bring gusty northerly winds over the outer waters and south of Cape Blanco on Friday. Another active system may bring additional rainfall and steep seas this weekend. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ350-356-370-376. && $$  920 FXUS64 KLIX 141745 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1245 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1245 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Sun and temperature related health risks will be the primary concern with sunny skies and warm temperatures on tap through much of the week. Make sure to use sunscreen and drink plenty of water if you intend to be outside enjoying activities like sports and festivals. - Light fog development remains possible each morning particularly near water bodies and inland Mississippi. Chances for higher coverage of moderate to dense fog exists Wednesday morning, but forecast confidence is low at this time. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Friday Night) Issued at 1245 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The short term pattern will be mostly driven by the H5 ridge over the eastern and central Gulf through the entire period. Eventually, the ridge does slide to the west a bit allowing for heights to increase over the CWFA from midweek through the end of the workweek. This will continue to promote not only a dry forecast, but a much warmer one as well as temperatures toward the end of the cycle will be much above average with some locations across interior sections of the region approaching 90F. Outside of temperatures, morning fog, especially across the interior Wednesday morning may become an issue. At this juncture it appears widespread visibilities north of I10/12 will be above dense fog thresholds...at least that is as of now. However, it wouldn't be impossible to need a short fused advisory if fog materializes a bit more dense. (Frye) && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Monday) Issued at 1245 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Going into the weekend eyes will turn to the northeast as a front and parent trough move east across the Red River Valley and eventually in the lower MS River Valley late Saturday and into Sunday morning. QPF signal among the globals and respective ensembles has been lackluster and continues to remain that way. Timing of the frontal passage looks rather close, especially considering the range. However, despite needing some rainfall across the region this frontal passage will not be very fruitful...at least as it stands now. The best chance of measurable rainfall will be along and west of the I55 corridor late Saturday and early Sunday. Otherwise, the upper ridge flattens out thanks to the parent upper level trough. This will lower heights and thicknesses and bring down temperatures slightly late week and early next week, to more average values. Otherwise, outside of cooler/drier air at the surface and a wind shift that's about it behind the frontal boundary. (Frye) && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1245 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions this afternoon and through much of the evening and overnight hours. Terminals along and north of the I10/12 corridor will likely experience some VIS/CIG reductions overnight as there could be areas of fog develop across the interior. Additionally, some fog may be possible along the river, which may have some localized impacts to MSY. Any reductions will improve later in the morning. Otherwise, expect mostly light southerly or southeasterly winds through the cycle. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 1245 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Strong surface high pressure from the northeast gulf into the Atlantic continues to produce a moderate easterly to southeasterly fetch over the northern Gulf. Winds will remain 10 to 15 kt throughout the week. Onshore flow will continue through at least Saturday with the potential for offshore flow from a cold front coming on Sunday and into early next week where more hazardous marine conditions may develop leading to cautionary headlines or even Small Craft Advisories. (Frye) && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RDF LONG TERM....RDF AVIATION...RDF MARINE...RDF  383 FXUS61 KPHI 141745 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 145 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Damaging winds possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms through this afternoon and evening north and west of the I-95 corridor, with an even higher risk from I-80 on north. 2. Potentially record breaking warmth is possible this week with very warm and above normal temperatures continuing through the upcoming weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1....Damaging winds possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms through this afternoon and evening north and west of the I-95 corridor, with an even higher risk from I-80 on north. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly north and west of the I-95 corridor, are anticipated to move in this afternoon and evening. While the severe threat is zero for most of the area, a few strong to severe storms over the northern Lehigh Valley, Poconos, and far northern NJ are possible and could produce damaging wind gusts. A fairly significant change to the forecast this morning for later today and this evening. An MCS over the Great Lakes will continue to push eastward through today and potentially graze our area this afternoon and evening. Convection associated with the MCS will likely re-develop later this afternoon over southern NY and north- central PA. The question remains how much instability builds with daytime heating as the day goes on. Shear, while present, is not overwhelming either. However, still expecting some thunderstorms developing and potentially clustering as they move into the northern half of our region. Main concern is damaging wind gusts as the line or small clusters of storms move through. The best chance for strong to severe thunderstorms will be from the I-95 and I-195 corridor on north and west. SPC has expanded the Marginal Risk (1/5) to include these areas. A Slight Risk was even added north of I-80. Showers and thunderstorms begin to move in by the mid afternoon in the Poconos, moving toward I-95 for the late afternoon/early evening. Convection should weaken as it crosses the Delaware River, with a more stable airmass present over New Jersey. Areas south and east of I-95 could still see some showers, but not expecting much in terms of severe weather. KEY MESSAGE 2...Potentially record breaking warmth is possible this week with very warm and above normal temperatures continuing through the upcoming weekend. We continue on track with increasing confidence in early season heat with a significant warm up expected through the middle of the week and into the upcoming weekend with the potential for record breaking temperatures. With high pressure situated over the Atlantic Ocean and the warm front well north of the Mid-Atlantic region, continued warmth is expected. Very warm air aloft coupled with warm air at surface levels will allow temperatures to be as much as 15 to 30 degrees above average this week. As of now, forecast highs are in the low to mid 80s on Tuesday with mid/upper 80s to low 90s on both Wednesday and Thursday, though Thursday may be a touch cooler due to more cloud cover. See Climate Section below regarding potential record breaking temperatures. At this point, temperatures are expected to reach at least 90 for much urban corridor on Wednesday and a degree or two warmer on Thursday. This would be first 90 degree day of the year and first since early September. As is typical in spring though, temperatures along and near the coast will be significantly cooler due to the colder sea surface temperatures and diurnal sea breeze. While a weak surface front passes through late Thursday night into Friday morning, temperatures will stay well above normal through the weekend with temps mainly in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Not only will it be very warm over the course of the week, but it will also remain mainly dry. This is of elevated concern for ongoing drought/abnormally dry conditions over much of the area, which will likely only get worse after this week. A few weak disturbances will pass by to the north through Thursday, but other than a stray shower or thunderstorm each afternoon north of the I-78 corridor, no significant rainfall is expected. Flow will generally be out of the southwest, which is more favorable in terms of moisture, which likely will hinder the fire weather concerns this week. Winds will generally be light as well, as another limiting factor. So, even though it will be warm and dry, fire weather concerns are minimal. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Rest of Today...VFR. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible at KRDG and KABE, so have kept VCSH mention but have removed VCTS as confidence in occurrence in quite low. Removed VCSH from I-95 terminals, since confidence in occurrence has declined in those spots. Southwest winds around 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt possible. Moderate-high confidence. Tonight...Prevailing VFR. A slight chance of showers at Lehigh Valley and I-95 terminals, but confidence in occurrence remains low. Some fog is possible, if any rain occurs, but have left this mention out as well. Southwest winds around 4-8 kt. Moderate confidence. Wednesday...VFR. A slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm for the Lehigh Valley and I-95 terminals late in the late afternoon, mainly after 21Z. Southwest winds around 10-15 kt. Moderate confidence. Outlook... Wednesday night through Thursday night...Prevailing VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms (~20-40%) in the afternoon and evening hours each day for the Lehigh Valley and I-95 terminals. Friday through Saturday...VFR. A few showers possible, otherwise no significant weather. && .MARINE... Tranquil conditions expected on the waters today and tonight with no headlines in place. Southwest winds around 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt and seas 2 to 4 feet. Outlook... Wednesday through Saturday...No marine headlines expected. Winds will generally remain below 20 kt with seas around 2-4 feet. A few showers possible, otherwise fair weather. && .CLIMATE... Warm temperatures well above normal are expected for the upcoming week. Wednesday is currently projected to be the warmest day, though Tuesday through Thursday could see some records broken depending on the site. Below are record highs and record high minimum temperatures for April 14th through April 16th. Record High Temperatures April 14 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 88/2023 AC Airport (ACY) 86/1945 AC Marina (55N) 90/1941 Georgetown (GED) 87/1977 Mount Pocono (MPO) 84/2023 Philadelphia (PHL) 91/1941 Reading (RDG) 90/1941 Trenton (TTN) 89/1941 Wilmington (ILG) 87/1941 Record Warmest Low Temperatures April 14 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 61/2014 AC Airport (ACY) 63/2023 AC Marina (55N) 60/2023 Georgetown (GED) 65/2019 Mount Pocono (MPO) 56/2014 Philadelphia (PHL) 62/2014 Reading (RDG) 64/2014 Trenton (TTN) 62/2014 Wilmington (ILG) 60/2014 Record High Temperatures April 15 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 86/1941 & 1994 AC Airport (ACY) 90/1967 AC Marina (55N) 86/1941 Georgetown (GED) 86/1960 & 2024 Mount Pocono (MPO) 82/1941 Philadelphia (PHL) 88/1941 Reading (RDG) 86/1941 & 1994 Trenton (TTN) 87/1994 Wilmington (ILG) 86/1896 Record Warmest Low Temperatures April 15 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 59/2002 AC Airport (ACY) 61/2002 AC Marina (55N) 59/2006 Georgetown (GED) 65/2002 Mount Pocono (MPO) 58/2002 Philadelphia (PHL) 64/2002 Reading (RDG) 64/1938 Trenton (TTN) 63/2002 Wilmington (ILG) 62/2002 Record High Temperatures April 16 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 90/2012 AC Airport (ACY) 89/2002 AC Marina (55N) 88/2002 Georgetown (GED) 89/2002 Mount Pocono (MPO) 85/2002 Philadelphia (PHL) 90/2002 Reading (RDG) 90/2012 Trenton (TTN) 91/2012 Wilmington (ILG) 92/1896 Record Warmest Low Temperatures April 16 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 60/1941 AC Airport (ACY) 62/2002 AC Marina (55N) 64/2002 Georgetown (GED) 65/2012 Mount Pocono (MPO) 56/2002 Philadelphia (PHL) 62/2002 Reading (RDG) 65/1941 Trenton (TTN) 62/2002 Wilmington (ILG) 63/2002 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Deal/DeSilva/Hoeflich/MJL AVIATION...Deal/DeSilva/Hoeflich MARINE...Deal/DeSilva/Hoeflich  025 FXUS63 KDVN 141745 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 1245 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - We continue with multiple days of severe weather risks the rest of the week, with an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) for severe storms for parts of the area today and again Friday, along with a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) Wednesday. - Above normal temperatures will continue through Friday. - Potential for frost/freeze conditions Saturday night and especially Sunday night. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 334 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Residual outflow boundary from decaying WI MCS extends roughly near a line from Independence, Iowa to Monticello, Iowa to near Sterling, Illinois early this morning. The boundary is markedly slowing as organized convection earlier in WI continues to diminish. 00Z DVN RAOB sampled a well defined EML, which until recently has largely kept precipitation at bay except for portions of Jo Daviess and Stephenson counties atop the lingering low level cool pool north of the outflow boundary. However, low level water vapor imagery loop appears to suggest a cirrus tag denoting a weak impulse lifting up across the area. This along with increasing low to mid level warm advection attendant to a veering 40-50 kt LLJ is fostering some spotty convection into portions of eastern Iowa, and also further south into northeast Missouri on the backside of a well defined convectively augmented wave shifting toward central Illinois. For this morning, we'll maintain spotty convection chances through daybreak attendant to the aforementioned forcing mechanisms. This will be elevated activity and could bring an isolated marginally severe hail threat. Thereafter, there is considerable uncertainty on convective evolution the rest of today. The RAP model is most aggressive on supporting more scattered convection developing mid to late morning through early afternoon, and is mostly an outlier. Mid level water vapor imagery does seem to suggest another potential subtle wave lifting quickly up across OK/s KS, and distance/speed would bring this across this morning. With the EML in place should any convection occur during this timeframe it would remain elevated, but with heating could lead to increased potential for a few marginally severe cores with hail again the main threat. Low confidence exists on this round of precipitation potential late morning into afternoon, but it could have some big implications on what happens later this afternoon into evening. The main focus for deep convection and a more significant severe weather risk it appears will be in the vicinity of the outflow boundary by late afternoon into this evening. However, just where this boundary is located and where the subsequent main corridor for a severe weather risk remains uncertain. If we do end up with more convection festering late morning and afternoon, it could help retard the northward movement of the outflow and bring more of the area north of I-80 in the threat for a few storms by late afternoon into evening with the EML likely limiting storm coverage. If we don't see much convection in the late morning and early afternoon, then we will likely see this boundary lift northward and it could mix or effectively jump northward to Hwy 20 or possibly even further north into s WI and far ne IA just north/northwest of the service area by late afternoon, with any convective threat in our far north or not too far outside of the area. The evolution of the boundary will play a big role in where this chance for later PM/evening severe storms will exist. Effective bulk shear of 40-50+ kt within a moderately unstable atmosphere generally characterized by MLCAPE of 1500-2500+ j/kg will be favorable for supercells, with the supercell vector largely perpendicular to the initiating outflow supporting discrete potential meaning there may not be many storms. The kinematic and thermodynamic environment look to be favorable for significant severe, particularly large to very large hail with large CAPE in the growth zone and steep mid level lapse rates over 8c/km, with also a tornado threat due to any boundary interaction / ingestion of enhanced low level SRH. Aside from the significant severe risk within the vicinity of the remnant outflow late afternoon/evening. The rest of the area is likely to remain dominated by an EML. Later tonight, forcing for ascent is forecast to increase ahead of an approaching shortwave ejecting from the Great Basin area early this morning. Thus, we do anticipate a burgeoning of convection later in the evening and overnight. This looks to largely remain elevated with primarily a large hail threat. However, any congealing of convection in multi-cells could foster some strong, gusty wind potential as well. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 334 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 For Wednesday through Friday, the active pattern will only continue as an upper-level longwave trough moves through the area Wednesday, followed by yet another one on Friday. We continue with a Slight Risk or level 2 of 5 risk areawide on Wednesday. There remains some uncertainty on the timing and severity on Wednesday, mainly due to the likelihood of ongoing convection owing to uncertainty on the extent of airmass recovery/destabilization by afternoon and evening. However, we will have more of a trigger for severe weather with a surface low and attendant cold front. If we can see sufficient destabilization occur then the potential is there for at least scattered storms to develop ahead of the low and cold front by mid to late afternoon through evening. Strong deep layer shear and vector orientation may support discrete supercells with large to very large hail and some tornado threat, before potentially growing upscale into a QLCS with predominantly a damaging wind threat and potential for spin-up tornadoes with any mesovorts. Thursday looks to be a drier and brief respite from the active weather, as a weak surface ridge traverses the region. The break in the quiet is short-lived as the high moves off by Friday and we see strengthening return flow/warm advection on gusty southerly winds. The main focus for convective initiation on Friday is favored to our west ahead of a lifting surface low and attendant cold front. There is some potential for discrete supercells developing and/or propagating into parts of eastern Iowa Friday evening with all hazards possible. However, we may once again see this activity grow upscale into a QLCS with an accompanying damaging wind and spin-up tornado threat by mid to late evening and into the early overnight. Due to the risk for discrete supercells, SPC has introduced a 30% (enhanced) risk for portions of eastern Iowa and northeast Missouri. A look ahead to the upcoming weekend shows a drier pattern developing for Saturday and Sunday as upper-level ridging develops to the west. A cold front should bring notably cooler and more seasonal temperatures to the area on the heels of strong, gusty northwest winds. This could bring our first bout of frost/freeze conditions during this growing season, possibly Saturday night though winds may stay up to limit this to just a freeze potential for parts of the area, while Sunday night could bring about more widespread freeze and frost with lighter winds as high pressure builds in. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1234 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 MVFR ceilings will occur at all sites through the early afternoon. Thunderstorms are possible between 21 and 03 UTC mainly impacting KCID and KDBQ but confidence remains low on the exact location so used a prob30 at both locations with MVFR conditions expected with any storms. Another round of thunderstorms is possible at KCID, KBRL and KMLI after 06 UTC and and used a prob30 at both locations to account for that. Winds will be south to southwesterly through the period with speeds of 10 to 20 knots and gusts up to 25 to 30 knots this afternoon into the early evening. Winds will diminish after 00 UTC Wednesday. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...McClure LONG TERM...McClure AVIATION...Cousins  735 FXUS63 KTOP 141745 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1245 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... -A similar setup to yesterday means another Red Flag Warning behind the dryline and a threat for severe storms east of the boundary today. -Another round of storms is possible Wednesday, mainly in far eastern KS. -A very dynamic system impacts the region Friday, bringing another threat for severe weather. -Much cooler weather is expected this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 344 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A similar setup to yesterday shows an area of low pressure and cold front near the KS/NE border and a dryline extending southward through central portions of KS this morning. The dryline will mix eastward today, causing extreme fire danger conditions again in north-central KS. RH will drop to less than 20 percent with southwest winds gusting 35 to 40 mph. This prompted the need for another Red Flag Warning for the same areas as yesterday. Ahead of the dryline will be another unstable air mass, especially where dew points remain in the 60s across far eastern KS. CAMs are more aggressive today in developing scattered convection ahead of the dryline this evening with some height falls aloft ahead of an approaching H5 wave. Given a similar environment to yesterday, characterized by nearly 3000 J/kg of MLCAPE and around 45 kts of effective shear, storms that develop will be capable of producing very large hail and a few tornadoes. Localized flooding could also occur, especially where heavy rain has occurred in the last few days. A more organized threat for severe storms could occur on Wednesday, mainly in far eastern KS as the H5 wave finally moves over the region, shunting a cold front into western MO. CAMs are in good agreement with storms developing along the cold front near or just southeast of the Kansas Turnpike, then quickly shifting storms in MO. But there could be at least a brief window for a few severe storms with large hail and damaging wind looking to be the main hazards. Thursday should be a day free of precipitation with the region in between storm systems. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s with lighter winds and sunny skies. A vigorous storm system will then approach from the west on Friday. Long range models still show some disagreement on the timing and placement of a strong sfc cold front and thunderstorm initiation, but there could be ample destabilization and deep layer shear in a strongly forced environment to produce severe thunderstorms. Much cooler conditions can be expected behind Friday's fast moving system for the upcoming weekend. We may even have to consider frost/freeze headlines for overnight low temperatures. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1238 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 There will be a better chance for thunderstorms this evening across the KTOP and KFOE terminals, so I left in the prob30 for thunderstorms between 00Z-04Z. I placed in VCTS for MHK for this evening. Winds should stay remain from the south-southwest through the 24 hours taf period in the 12 to 22 KTS with gusts of 22 to 28 KTS. So, I will not place in low-level windshear. There may be a few hours of BKN MVFR ceilings betweeen 11Z and 14Z WED. But confidence is low to place in the TAF. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 345 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Another Red Flag Warning has been issued for today in north- central KS due to low RH and strong south-southwest winds behind the dryline. These conditions will combine to create extreme fire danger again this afternoon. Minimum RH behind the dryline could quickly fall to below 20 percent as dew points drop. South-southwest winds will be sustained at 15 to 20 mph with gusts as high as 40 mph throughout the afternoon. Improvement in conditions is expected tomorrow with higher RH's and lighter winds in central KS. For today, however, burning should be avoided. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008-KSZ020- KSZ034. && $$ DISCUSSION...Teefey AVIATION...Gargan FIRE WEATHER...Teefey  907 FXUS65 KPIH 141745 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 1145 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quieter Weather Today: Expect a temporary break in widespread weather today, though isolated showers persist in the Eastern Highlands. - High-Impact Wednesday: A potent storm system brings widespread moisture and high winds, with gusts of 40–45 mph likely across the Snake Plain. - Significant Late-Week Cold: Temperatures plummet Wednesday night. Thursday and Friday will be notably cold with highs in the 30s and 40s and light snow possible on valley floors. - Hard Freeze Likely: Widespread lows in the 20s are expected Friday and Saturday mornings. Due to the early start of the growing season, Freeze Watches/Warnings may be issued to protect vulnerable crops. - Rapid Weekend Recovery: Conditions dry out by Saturday with a significant warming trend returning temperatures to the 60s by Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 141 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A brief reprieve in widespread activity arrives today as the region sits between weather systems. While most of the area will remain dry, high-resolution guidance suggests a few lingering, isolated showers remain possible across the Eastern Highlands throughout the afternoon. This window of relative quiet will be short-lived; a robust weather system is expected to push into the Central Mountains early Wednesday morning, with precipitation chances increasing steadily from west to east as the day progresses. This midweek system appears to be a significant moisture producer for all of Eastern Idaho. Beyond the precipitation, Wednesday is slated to be the windiest day of the week—particularly for the upper Snake River Plain—with gusts of 40–45 mph likely requiring a Wind Advisory in future forecast packages. A strong cold front will sweep through the region late Wednesday into Thursday morning, dropping snow levels rapidly to all valley floors. A much colder air mass will settle in behind the front, driving Thursday's highs into the upper 30s and low 40s—a sharp 15-degree drop from Wednesday. Recent model trends suggest Thursday and Friday may be even chillier than previously anticipated. These plummeting temperatures, combined with persistent gusts of 30 to 40 mph, will create a significant raw chill. Consequently, light snow reaching valley floors is increasingly likely starting Thursday morning. While valley accumulations are expected to be minor (an inch or less), more impactful snow is forecast for the higher terrain, where winter weather headlines may be necessary. The secondary, and perhaps more significant, impact of this cold air mass involves local agriculture. Widespread sub- freezing temperatures are expected Friday and Saturday mornings, with lows dropping into the 20s across primary growing regions and the teens elsewhere. Although it is early in the season for frost/freeze products, the unseasonably warm winter has accelerated plant growth, making it necessary to issue Freeze Watches or Warnings to protect vulnerable crops. Lingering mountain precipitation will persist into Friday, though the region will slowly dry out over the course of the day. Looking ahead to the weekend, ensemble guidance indicates the cold upper-level trough will begin to exit the region. As high pressure builds by Saturday, temperatures will trend back toward seasonal normals before climbing well above normal by Sunday, with 60s likely returning to valley locations. Looking into next week, models suggest another disturbance may approach the Pacific Northwest, with moisture potentially returning as early as Monday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1136 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Widespread lower clouds continue to decrease, although we are pockets of low and mid clouds moving through central and eastern Idaho. We may be in and out of MVFR/IFR conditions for the lower clouds for a little while this afternoon. We will see low clouds returning early to mid morning Wednesday, as the next storm arrives. We should stay VFR or flirt with high end MVFR at PIH, IDA, and BYI as any precipitation and lower FR weather arriving in the afternoon. At DIJ, we are expecting VCSH with the same ceiling issues during that period. We do expect a mix of rain and snow to impact SUN not too long after sunrise and continue through the rest of the day, with a likely full switchover during the afternoon. We are expecting MVFR to IFR conditions impacting the airport once the precipitation arrives. The other concern will be increasing wind with gusts of 15-30kts tomorrow, strongest at PIH and especially IDA. This will be outside of any showers, storms, or bands of precipitation that form. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...McKaughan AVIATION...Keyes  062 FXUS65 KGJT 141746 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1146 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler, wetter weather continues through Wednesday morning with valley rain and mountain snow. Slick travel conditions are expected above 10,000 feet. - Sub-freezing temperatures are expected for most valleys tonight into Wednesday morning where the Freeze Watch was upgraded to a Freeze Warning. A Freeze Watch is in effect for a few valleys Wednesday night into Thursday morning as well. - After a brief mid-week warm up, colder and unsettled weather returns to the region Thursday night into Saturday morning with widespread hard freeze possible as well as mountain and high valley snow. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1146 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 WET WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY: The low pressure system providing the beneficial moisture is currently seen spinning over east-central Utah and tracking northeast into west-central Colorado late this morning, with showers moving southwest to northeast. We have been seeing a steady light precipitation with some pockets of moderate to heavy rates dependent on stronger convective showers. Lightning appears more isolated at the moment but could see better coverage of thunderstorms this afternoon as hi-res CAMs are indicating some pockets of 200 to 300 J/kg of CAPE. Gusty winds and small hail are possible with convection that does form as we've seen already this morning. Across the higher terrain, some snow is falling but roadways remain wet due to the milder temperatures associated with this particular low pressure system. We could still see slushy and slick conditions at the higher passes and low visibility with falling snow despite the mostly wet roads but impacts will be more localized to the higher passes above 10,000 feet. Caution still urged if traveling. Shower activity will continue into the evening but should begin to lessen in coverage after sunset as the shortwave trough exits to the east and drier northwest flow moves in behind it. Showers appear confined to the divide after midnight through Wednesday morning. FREEZE POTENTIAL: As the system moves out this evening, sub-freezing temperatures appear likely tonight through Wednesday morning for most lower valleys with exception of the Grand Valley and valleys of east- central and southeast Utah. Therefore, upgraded the Freeze Watch to a Freeze Warning for those areas. The growing season is well underway for all lower valleys so protect plants and sensitive vegetation if you are impacted. Temperatures begin to warm Wednesday and Thursday with dry conditions expected but we still have potential for below freezing temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday morning for the southwest Colorado valleys and the Central Colorado River Basin (valleys east of New Castle and south of Glenwood Springs to Carbondale), so issued a Freeze Watch for those areas Wednesday night. More widespread freeze potential arrives with the next colder system Thursday night and especially Friday night into Saturday morning, so stay up to date on the latest as more freeze highlights are likely. MUCH COLDER SYSTEM FRIDAY AND LOOKING AHEAD: In addition to the warmer temperatures Thursday (5 to 10 degrees above normal), southwest winds increase Thursday ahead of a more potent and colder low pressure system with potential for gusts in the 30 to 45 mph range. Critical fire weather conditions are possible across central and southern valleys due to combination of low relative humidity and gusty winds...all dependent on fuel status. This next system looks to have a strong cold front associated with it with temperatures falling 15 to 25 degrees behind the front leading to a widespread hard freeze possible Friday night into Saturday morning. It's too soon to say how much snow this system will produce, but snow may drop into the lower valleys behind the front. At this time, it does at least appear like the mountains and higher valleys of northwest Colorado and northeast Utah are favored for better accumulations. Looking beyond Saturday, a high pressure ridge builds back in this weekend into early next week, resulting in a return back up towards above normal warmth as the rollercoaster spring weather continues. However, another storm system potentially looms for mid to late next week, so we still look to remain in this progressive pattern. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1146 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Scattered to widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms will lead to a complex forecast over the next 6 to 10 hours. A mixture of VFR and MVFR conditions are in place and expect periodic IFR/LIFR conditions as heavier showers and lower clouds move over terminals. Things do not look to begin to improve until this evening with a return to VFR prevailing at most TAF sites. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Wednesday for COZ001-002-007-008-011-020>023. Freeze Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday morning for COZ008-021>023. UT...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Wednesday for UTZ024. && $$ DISCUSSION...MDA/DB AVIATION...TGJT  154 FXUS63 KILX 141748 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1248 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - The stretch of warm weather is expected to last through Friday, with daily temperatures climbing near 80 degrees, and at times, the mid-80s. Breezy winds, occasionally reaching 25-35 mph, will accompany this warm period. - This week will be riddled with thunderstorm potential. Today, Wednesday, and Friday currently exhibit the highest probability (15-30%) of severe weather. - There is also potential for substantial accumulative rainfall throughout the week, with our multi-model ensemble predicting a medium (30-50%) chance of exceeding 2 inches through Saturday in areas north of Interstate 72. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 301 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Satellite imagery reveals two key areas of convection this morning. First, a cluster of decaying thunderstorms in central Missouri, as shown by warming cloud tops. The associated convectively-augmented shortwave is anticipated to move eastward along the I-70 corridor into central Illinois later this morning. Second, a persistent area of convection is situated further north over northeast Iowa and southern Wisconsin, near the primary surface boundary, with its outflow boundary slowly advancing southward into northern Illinois. The region situated between these two features remains favorable for renewed thunderstorm development. A strong 40-50 kt low- level jet (LLJ) is present, maintaining a healthy sink of MUCAPE (1500-2000 J/kg). Furthermore, the eastward-tracking convectively-augmented shortwave is expected to boost effective layer shear to nearly 40 knots and sustain favorable mid-level lapse rates. Given this combination of sufficient CAPE, shear, and residual forcing mechanisms, the re-ignition of convection into central and east-central Illinois is considered plausible this morning. Model guidance, specifically the HRRR and RRFS, suggests the potential development of an elevated thunderstorm cluster. If this materializes, the primary convective hazard through mid- morning will be hail. Despite the development of a highly volatile atmosphere this afternoon, featuring surface temperatures in the mid-80s, 60s dewpoints, favorable mid-level lapse rates, an intensifying mid- level jet, and robust SBCAPE (2500-3500 J/kg), the potential for thunderstorms remains low. This is primarily due to a persistent cap, maintained by residual subsidence and marginal mid-level height increases following the morning shortwave. This cap, particularly in the 1-3 km layer, could significantly limit, or even prevent, convective development. Synoptic forcing today appears nebulous, compounding the forecast difficulty: the main surface front is expected to stay north; the location of potential convective outflows is unknown; and no strong shortwave is lifting across the area. This has led to substantial uncertainty in the timing and location of storm initiation, with CAMs struggling to accurately predict storm evolution. However, if updrafts manage to breach the cap later this afternoon or early evening, the environment is primed to support significant-severe convective hazards. The profile is a classic "loaded gun", but the trigger (forcing) is largely missing, or at least unknown at the moment. Regardless of today's convective outcome, the likelihood of widespread convection increases significantly by Wednesday morning. This is expected as a low-level jet axis establishes across the region and a preceding shortwave disturbance ejects ahead of a more potent trough tracking across the lee of the Rockies. Additional rounds of storms are then likely through Wednesday evening as the main trough swings across the Mid-Mississippi Valley. A favorable CAPE/shear environment is anticipated to support elevated supercell and multicell structures over central Illinois throughout the day, capable of producing all severe hazards, including localized heavy rainfall. Thursday looks to be a region-wide break from storms due to synoptic-scale subsidence moving in behind the departing upper trough. Thunderstorm activity is then expected to return over the weekend, specifically Friday night into Saturday. This is associated with a compact shortwave trough lifting across the Mid-Mississippi Valley ahead of a pivoting, more vigorous trough and its accompanying cold front. The CAPE/shear parameter space appears volatile enough to support an organized severe convective risk, even though the front appears to pass during a diurnally unfavorable time. Following the cold frontal passage, temperatures will cool significantly from Saturday night through Monday as the warm, moist air mass from the previous week is flushed out. The latest NBM deterministic guidance supports Sunday afternoon high temperatures near 60 degrees, with overnight lows around 40 degrees. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1241 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Isolated (20-30% coverage) thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon, potentially impacting any of the airfields from roughly 19z to 02z. These could be severe and produce high winds and large hail, though confidence in a direct impact at any given location was too low to add a mention of GR or 50+kt gusts in the TAFs. Tonight into Wednesday morning, periods of isolated, though less intense, showers and storms are forecast. There is a 20% chance that a period of gusty winds impacts PIA, SPI, and BMI between 05z and 09z as a decaying storm complex approaches from the southwest, though again confidence was too low to add this to the TAFs. Outside of storms, winds will predominantly blow from the SSW around 12-15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt throughout the period. MVFR ceilings at the northern terminals early this afternoon should lift and/or break up by 20z. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 307 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 RECORD HIGHS FOR 4/14: PEORIA: 86 (2024) SPRINGFIELD: 89 (2006) LINCOLN: 87 (2006) NORMAL: 84 (2006) URBANA: 84 (2010) DECATUR: 88 (1941) FORECAST HIGHS FOR 4/14/2026: PEORIA: 84 SPRINGFIELD: 87 LINCOLN: 86 NORMAL: 84 URBANA: 84 DECATUR: 85 && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...MJA DISCUSSION...MJA AVIATION...Bumgardner CLIMATE...25/MJA  517 FXUS61 KRLX 141749 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 149 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms has been expanded south to include the Metro Valley for this afternoon and evening. A slight risk now encompasses a portion of Perry County. Minor adjustments have been made to timing for Thursday night and Saturday night precipitation. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1.) Isolated to scattered strong thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening, primarily across southeast Ohio and northern West Virginia. A few storms may produce marginally severe wind gusts or hail. 2.) Record to near-record heat will persist through Saturday with afternoon highs reaching the mid to upper 80s, and isolated 90s possible mid-week. 3.) Elevated fire danger continues through the week due to anomalous heat, afternoon relative humidity values in the 20 to 30 percent range, breezy conditions and antecedent dry dead fuels. 4.) A strong cold front Saturday night into Sunday will end the heatwave, bringing a period of beneficial rain followed by much cooler temperatures and potential frost by Monday morning. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Deep-layer shear is increasing to modest levels near 35KT this afternoon as a weak shortwave impulse traverses the periphery of the southeastern ridge. While capping remains a concern near H700, diurnal heating is expected to erode inhibition across the north. Mixed-layer CAPE values are forecast to reach 500-1000 J/kg, supportive of multicell clusters. Given steep low-level lapse rates and a substantially dry sub-cloud layer with surface-to-H500 dewpoint depressions, marginally severe downburst winds are the primary threat, though semi-discrete cells could produce isolated large hail. The greatest risk area extends from the northern border south to the Metro Valley. Convection will diminish tonight with the loss of heating. KEY MESSAGE 2... An amplified long-wave pattern remains established with a strong 590dam ridge anchored over the Gulf and Florida. This will maintain an unseasonably warm airmass across the region through Saturday. High temperatures will average in the mid to upper 80s daily, roughly 15 to 20 degrees above normal. Record highs are specifically challenged Wednesday and again Friday/Saturday when H850 temperatures peak between 14C and 16C, supporting surface values near 90. Should stay mainly dry Wednesday, Friday and Saturday, a shortwave Thursday could bring some precipitation chances, but probably tough sledding for anything to survive when encountering the ridge and associated substantially dry low levels. Maintained what are probably a little optimistic central guidance PoPs. KEY MESSAGE 3... Fire danger remains enhanced through the week as drought conditions worsen with the lack of widespread rainfall. Afternoon minimum relative humidity will bottom out in the 20s and 30s through Saturday (minus today). Combined with daily southwest gusts of 20-25 mph and very dry fine fuels, rapid fire spread in leaf litter and dead grasses is possible. This will be somewhat mitigated by rapidly increased canopy coverage across the lowlands. KEY MESSAGE 4... A significant pattern shift occurs this weekend as a deep trough moves into the eastern U.S.. A strong cold front is timed to cross the area Saturday night, with PoPs peaking in the 50-60 percent range. While QPF has looked lean in previous runs, this system offers the best chance for meaningful rain in the next 7 days. Strong cold advection follows, with H850 temperatures dropping significantly by Sunday night. Highs will retreat to the 60s for Sunday and Monday, with areas subject to cold air drainage away from major rivers seeing frost potential by Monday morning. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions will generally prevail through the next 24 hours. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon (18Z-00Z) may produce brief MVFR/IFR restrictions and erratic wind gusts, particularly for northern terminals like PKB and CKB. Included a Mix of TEMPO/PROB30 TSRA and VCTS depending on confidence of impact at any given terminal. Outside of convection, southwest winds of 10-15KTs with gusts to 22KTs are expected this afternoon, subsiding to 5KTs or less after 00Z. No significant fog is expected tonight due to maintaining low- level flow and dry boundary layer conditions. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Thunderstorms may have direct impacts on TAF sites this afternoon/evening. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... VFR conditions will generally prevail through the week. However, brief periods of MVFR to IFR restrictions are possible within isolated showers and thunderstorms, with a higher likelihood of MVFR to IFR restrictions Thursday night and late Saturday. && .CLIMATE... Unseasonably warm conditions continue through Friday with daytime highs challenged at least Wednesday and Saturday. Forecast / Record High Temperatures ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Tue, 4/14 | Wed, 4/15 | Thu, 4/16 | Fri, 4/17 | ------------------------------------------------------------------------ CRW | 83 / 88 (2018) | 89 / 89 (1994) | 86 / 89 (2002) | 84 / 89 (1976) | HTS | 84 / 87 (1941) | 88 / 87 (2024) | 85 / 89 (2024) | 86 / 87 (1976) | CKB | 83 / 87 (2018) | 87 / 83 (1974) | 84 / 86 (2002) | 79 / 88 (1969) | PKB | 82 / 85 (1941) | 87 / 84 (2024) | 85 / 88 (2002) | 81 / 89 (1976) | BKW | 76 / 83 (2018) | 82 / 82 (2012) | 80 / 84 (2002) | 78 / 84 (1976) | EKN | 80 / 85 (2018) | 85 / 81 (2012) | 81 / 85 (2012) | 78 / 87 (1976) | ------------------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------- Sat, 4/18 | --------------------- CRW | 89 / 90 (2019) | HTS | 89 / 89 (1955) | CKB | 85 / 88 (1976) | PKB | 87 / 91 (1976) | BKW | 84 / 86 (1976) | EKN | 84 / 88 (1976) | --------------------- && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JP AVIATION...JP CLIMATE...JP  626 FXUS62 KMHX 141750 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 150 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Temperatures have trended warmer through the rest of the week. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Above to well above normal temperatures will prevail through the entire week with the potential for record breaking temperatures each day through Saturday. 2) Worsening drought and fire weather conditions anticipated over much of the upcoming week, with the next meaningful chance of rain not until Sunday && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Persistent upper level ridging and a warm southwest low-level flow regime will continue to strongly favor well above normal temperatures through the remainder of the week. Each day will carry at least some potential for record- tying or record-breaking temperatures. For a little context, one of our forecast aids (the ECMWF's Extreme Forecast Index -or- EFI) continues to show a very strong signal for a stretch of highly anomalous temperatures, with a focus from Wednesday through Saturday. While above normal temperatures seem to be a foregone conclusion, there may be some subtle, but important, features that could impact just how hot each day gets. One is cloudcover. The upper level ridge will flatten some today and tomorrow, which may allow convective debris clouds from the Plains to overspread the Carolinas. Like yesterday, that could hold temps down some, preventing them from reaching the full potential of the low-level thicknesses present. By Thursday, the ridge is forecast to amplify again, with more of a southwest flow aloft redeveloping. This suggests that the warmest day of the week may be Thursday if that southwest flow can divert high level clouds away from the area. Cloudcover will be a caveat again on Friday as a shortwave moves through aloft. This could put a small dent in temps, and may even allow a very low risk of a few isolated showers. This scenario appears unlikely, but is something we'll be monitoring in guidance through the week. KEY MESSAGE 2...Drought conditions are expected to persist through the foreseeable future with no rain in the forecast until Sunday. Even then, rainfall amounts on Sunday currently look to be less than a half an inch. The forecast area remains in a Severe Drought (D2), with some pockets of Extreme Drought (D3) emerging over the northern NC coastal plain. Precipitation deficits over the last 60 days range from 3-6 inches, which will only increase in the upcoming rain-free week. Growing vegetation and leaf out will only increase the strain on ground water in the coming weeks. While the forecast currently has conditions not meeting criteria for fire danger statements, the very dry conditions will continue to bring an elevated threat for wildfires. It is also worth noting that breezy afternoon/evening winds will be paired with relative humidities in the 30-40% range. Again, this does not meet Fire Danger Statement criteria, but given the increased sensitivities, it is worth a mention. The NCFS continues a statewide burn ban until further notice. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Pred VFR expected through the TAF period with high pressure remaining in control. Probabilities for fog tonight remain very low, near zero percent, but if localized decoupling occurs some patchy shallow fog may develop around the hours of 10-12z Wed morning. Winds will primarily be out of the SW with gusts around 15-20 kt beginning mid to late morning as deeper mixing ensues. An active sea breeze bringing a shift to Sly winds as it pushes inland through the afternoon and early evening hours. Outlook: Pred VFR conditions expected through the period with a more summertime pattern persisting through the week. Stronger winds likely in the coming days with tightening thermal gradient, most likely felt in the afternoons and evenings. && .MARINE... A pattern more typical of summer continues, with a daily chance of 20-25 kt winds over waters favored in southwest flow where the thermal gradient is the strongest. This includes the Pamlico Sound and nearby rivers and sounds. The hottest days with the strongest thermal gradient may necessitate short-fused Small Craft Advisories, but the frequency and coverage of 25 kt gusts in the forecast is too slim for any headlines at this time. For the coastal waters, seas of 2-4 ft will be common through mid-week. Seas may approach 5 ft at times late in the week, especially for the waters off of Cape Hatteras and Core Banks. Outlook: A cold front is forecast to move through area waters on Sunday. Ahead of the front, there should be an increased risk of 25 kt winds, with an even higher chance behind the front late Sunday into Monday. Of note, some of the stronger guidance suggests the potential for gale-force winds behind the front. Stay tuned for updates on this frontal passage and the potential marine impacts late in the weekend into early next week. && .CLIMATE... Record High temps for 4/14 (Tuesday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 89/1948 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 80/1994 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 93/1922 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 80/1996 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 99/1930 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 88/1977 (NCA ASOS) Record High temps for 4/15 (Wednesday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 94/1972 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 84/1922 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 96/1922 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 80/1964 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 92/1941 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 93/2006 (NCA ASOS) Record High temps for 4/16 (Thursday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 92/1972 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 78/1994 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 92/1972 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 82/2006 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 92/2006 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 91/1972 (NCA ASOS) Record High temps for 4/17 (Friday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 91/1976 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 83/2012 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 92/1972 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 82/1976 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 91/1972 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 91/2006 (NCA ASOS) && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196- 204-205. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RM/OJC AVIATION...SK MARINE...RM/OJC  090 FXUS65 KCYS 141751 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 1151 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered rain and snow showers in Carbon and Albany counties this morning may result in a few slick spots along the I-80 corridor and accumulating snow above about 8500 feet in elevation. - A strong but compact system will bring a chance for rain to the High Plains, mainly Tuesday afternoon and evening. - Warmer and drier weather returns for Wednesday and Thursday, bringing elevated to critical fire weather conditions and marginally high winds in the wind prone areas. - A potent weather disturbance will produce windy, colder, and wetter weather for Thursday night and Friday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 200 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A weak upper-level trough and associated vort max will slide through the CWA today. This feature and its associated energy will increase the threat of precipitation, first across our western zones and then east/northeastward throughout the day. The suite of deterministic hi- res models depict this activity, albeit a bit disorganized and not with the greatest consensus. Because of this, forecast confidence is low due to this disagreement in solutions. In addition, modeled soundings show that the lower atmosphere is dry which will play a role if precipitation actually hits the ground. With all this being said, if you drew a line from Douglas to Chadron, south of this we have generally a 50% chance of precipitation. The greatest threat will be along I-80 from Rawlins to Sidney. At the latter parts of today, near Sidney, some guidance is showing the potential that there could be a few rumbles of thunder. However, instability parameters are meager at best and confidence if this will actually happen remains low. Peering into the world of ensemble guidance, probs greater than 60% of a location getting a tenth or more of liquid precipitation remains across the higher terrain west of Cheyenne and the Nebraska Panhandle. While here locally, unfortunately, Cheyenne has a 40-60% chance of a tenth of liquid precipitation. For the higher elevations, including Laramie, snow showers are a possibility with little to no accumulations expected. Locations above 8K feet may see a few inches of late season snowfall. This system and any precipitation will exit the CWA by Wednesday morning, then expect a quieter day along with plentiful sunshine throughout Wednesday. Switching gears a bit, lets take a look at temperatures and winds. First temperatures, with 700mb temps in the 0 to -2C range, expect highs this afternoon a tad cooler then previous days with 50s west of I-25 and mid 50s to mid 60s east of the I-25 corridor. And Wednesday, with clearing skies, 700mb temps warm up a bit into the +2 to +4C range, translating to a few degrees warmer across the board. Low temps will reflect a similar pattern, cooler Tuesday night (generally in the 30S) and near 40 for Wednesday night. Regarding winds, mid-level winds today are nothing to write home about, so expect surface winds generally less than 20 mph across the CWA. By early Wednesday morning, the 700mb jet picks right back up to near 50 knots, with the peak over the Laramie Range. However, per the GFS, subsidence is meager so these winds may not mix down to the surface. In-house guidance agrees, and shows generally less than 40% of high winds for our known wind prones along I-25 and I-80. This threat, albeit slim, will be all but over Wednesday afternoon/evening as winds across the region once again will be on a downward trend. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Thursday night-Friday...A progressive and sharp trough aloft and its associated cold front move from Idaho and Utah Thursday evening, to western Wyoming late Thursday night, with the cold front passing our counties Thursday night. The trough axis aloft tracks across our counties during the day on Friday. Fairly high confidence in scattered to numerous rain and snow showers spreading from west to east Thursday night, with likely to widespread snow showers Friday afternoon. Much cooler and windy on Friday with maximum temperatures in the mid 30s and 40s. Winter weather highlights may be needed for the mountains and nearby locations. Saturday...Snow showers will gradually end from west to east early in the day, as the shortwave trough aloft moves into the northern Great Plains states. Strong low and mid level northwest flow will help produce a windy day, with possible high winds for our wind prone locations. Somewhat warmer than Friday with 700 mb temperatures near 6 Celsius. Sunday...The flow aloft weakens as low amplitude shortwave ridging aloft develops over Wyoming, producing dry conditions and mild temperatures in the upper 50s and 60s with 700 mb temperatures near 2 Celsius. Monday...Ridging aloft moves over our forecast area, with surface lee troughing over our eastern counties, producing a dry and mild day. 700 mb temperatures near 8 Celsius will yield maximum temperatures in the mid 60s west of I-25, with 70s east of I-25. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1150 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Looking at satellite and Airport observations further southwest into the CO/UT area, Cloud ceilings are going to bounce between MVFR and VFR today with a chance for KLAR to drop to around 1,000ft with those afternoon showers. These showers are expected to move northeast throughout the day with the possibility of some thunderstorms after 00z for KSNY. The low to mid level clouds should start clearing out by 06z leaving some transient high clouds to push through. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RZ LONG TERM...RUBIN AVIATION...MM  650 FXUS65 KBOI 141753 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 1153 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Drier today with normal temperatures. - Rain and mountain snow Wednesday, then snow level lowering to valley floors before ending late Wednesday night/Thursday morning. - Subfreezing morning temperatures Thursday through Saturday across the entire area. && .SHORT TERM /Through Thursday Night/... Issued 311 AM MDT TUE APR 14 2026 Weak ridging aloft from the north Pacific will pass through our CWA today, bringing drier weather with normal temperatures. The next upper trough from the Gulf of Alaska will spread more rain (snow above 5000 feet MSL north to 6500 feet south) into our CWA tonight through Wednesday night. The system's cold front should pass through eastern OR midday Wednesday and western ID Wednesday afternoon/evening, followed by even colder air than the previous system. Snow level will lower to valley floors late Wednesday night but most models show pcpn ending by then. GFS, however, has a band of moisture behind the front that passes through our CWA toward sunrise Thursday morning when the air is easily cold enough to support snow. For now we'll stay with the model consensus suggesting little or no snow in the lower valleys, but we remain ready for any model changes in the next two cycles. For now, we can offer a 20 percent chance of a half- inch snow accumulation in the Treasure valley early Thursday morning, with a 40 percent chance of up to an inch in the Magic Valley. Thursday looks breezy, drier, and cold, as the upper trough passes through. Thursday night will be clearing and calming and quite cold, with lows in the teens and 20s, cold enough to damage new plants unless they are covered. && .LONG TERM /Friday through Tuesday/... Issued 311 AM MDT TUE APR 14 2026 Friday will mark the start of a warming and drying trend to end the week. As the system in the short-term period exits to the east, ridging will begin to build in behind it. High temperatures come Friday will still be below normal, but 5-10 degrees warmer than Thursday. The drying trend will allow for overnight valley lows to be at or near freezing through Saturday morning. A 15-50% chance of precipitation will remain over the Boise Mountains and Valley County Friday (highest in northeastern Valley County), associated with lingering wrap-around moisture as the low moves east. Gusty west/northwest winds will persist in the usual windy areas east of Mountain Home, with gusts up to around 30 mph. The warming trend will continue through the weekend, with temperatures leaning above normal again by Sunday. Confidence continues to increase on another low digging down from the Gulf of Alaska early next week, although timing continues to be uncertain on exactly when it will impact our area. However, right now ensembles favor the late Sunday/Monday timeframe. With that, precipitation chances will increase from west to east Saturday afternoon into Monday, reaching 30-60% area-wide come Monday afternoon. Precipitation chances will remain elevated through Tuesday. The exact timing, and therefore best precipitation chances, should become more clear in future forecasts. Regardless of the exact timing of the system, temperatures will cool to be near normal when it impacts our area. Winds will also become breezy/gusty, from the south/ southeast ahead of and north/northwest following the system. && .AVIATION /18Z Tuesday through Wednesday/... Issued 1152 AM MDT TUE APR 14 2026 VFR today. Band of SCT-BKN high clouds moving in from west. Cold front will bring showers from W-E early Wednesday morning, with MVFR- IFR conditions and mtn obscuration in showers/low ceilings. Snow Levels will be 5-6.5 kft MSL today through Wednesday morning. Surface winds: SW-NW 5-15 kt this afternoon with gusts up to 25 kt near KTWF/KJER. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-NW 10-20 kt KBOI...VFR. Rain showers returning early Wednesday morning with increasing clouds and lowering ceilings. Surface winds: W-NW 5-10 kt this afternoon, then SE 5-10kt this evening. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....JY SHORT TERM...LC LONG TERM....NF  834 FXUS63 KMPX 141753 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1253 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of dense fog in the morning. - Stretch of unseasonably warm temperatures will continue through Friday. - Additional chances for showers/thunderstorms Wednesday and Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 256 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Regional radar imagery highlights our thunderstorms from yesterday evening are now a decaying MCS over E WI and W MI this morning. Surface observations reveal temperatures in the 40s and 50s with light and variable winds. This combined with the brief period of clear skies behind the frontal passage has led to the formation of areas of dense fog and low stratus across western Wisconsin and southern Minnesota. The area of dense fog will likely spread east across portions of central and western MN overnight. Fog will be slow to erode this morning, but should improve by lunch. On the other hand, cloud cover will stick around much of the day. Temperatures will likely end up in the 60s with a chance of 70 along I-90. Not bad for mid-April but not exactly a great day to spend outdoors. Precipitation chances will be restricted to the I-90 corridor in MN and along/south of I-94 in W WI. Twin Cities and locations N/W will remain dry. Another shortwave will track northeast from the Plains on Wednesday. This will bring another round of showers across the area. Thunderstorm threat should remain south and east of MN and western WI. Highs top out in the 60s. As that wave departs, another system developing over the Plains will begin to push east on Thursday. Speaking of Thursday, current guidance supports a rather nice day. Skies should clear out behind Wednesday's system and warm air advection ramps up ahead of the incoming Plains low. The southerly flow should help temperatures warm back into the mid 70s and looks like the nicest day of the forecast period. On Friday, moisture continues to return across the area as the next system moves through. A rather potent cold front is forecast with this system and will likely lead to another round of thunderstorms Friday afternoon. There is good model consistency with this system. If we take a look at the forecast soundings in the warm sector reveal another impressive early season environment with very steep lapse rates (8.0 to 9.0C/km), moderate instability, and favorable shear profiles. The cold front and it's associated synoptic forcing should be able to overcome the EML capping with convective initiation Friday afternoon. Storm mode should quickly turn linear before tracking east. This squall line would likely pose a severe risk Friday afternoon and early evening. Additionally, CSU ML probabilities would support a severe threat as well. The weekend will turn colder behind the front with highs in the 40s. The Saturday potential wintry mix/snow/slop looks less likely than it did 24 hours ago, notably the 00Z ECMWF & AIFS guidance no longer advertise the snow chance as they're weaker and further north with the system, but interestingly enough the GFS/GEM/ICON now support a brief period of snow. So what does this mean for your weekend forecast? It'll be colder with a chance of some light precipitation on Saturday. Sunday is dry, but remains chilly. It should be a good weekend to stay inside and finish up any projects before the warmer weather arrives for good. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1238 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Low stratus continues to push east, allowing for sites to gradually clear out as the afternoon progresses. SCT coverage is expected from late this afternoon through this evening, then another round of fog/low stratus is expected overnight through daybreak Wednesday morning. Conditions expected to drop to IFR for central-eastern MN through western WI, potentially into LIFR/VLIFR around sunrise. Conditions will then gradually improve through the late morning hours to VFR by late morning to early afternoon. Light NW winds will drop to light/variable, if not calm, overnight which will aid in fog development. KMSP...VFR to start and remain as such into the early morning hours before conditions become degraded due to fog and low stratus. Ceilings expected to drop to around 600', and potentially as low as 200' around sunrise. Improvement expected from late morning onward and eventually back to VFR by Wednesday afternoon. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR. Wind SE 5-10kts. FRI...MVFR/SHRA likely, chance -TSRA. Wind SE to SW 10-15G25kts. SAT...MVFR ceilings. Chance IFR/-RASN. Wind NW 15G25-30kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BPH AVIATION...JPC  956 FXUS63 KARX 141755 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 1255 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe storms possible today, primarily for the southeastern half of the forecast area with large hail, damaging winds, a few tornadoes as the primary threats. Heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding remains a secondary threat with overall fast storm motions expected. - Storm chances continue through Tuesday night and Wednesday, eventually ceasing temporarily through Thursday. Additional strong to severe storm chances return Friday afternoon/evening/night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1254 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Severe Storms Today If you didn't get a slice of the action yesterday, have no fear because we're in for another round of potentially higher end severe weather again today. The main locations under the gun today will be Northeastern Iowa into SW/Central Wisconsin. An outflow boundary from last night/this mornings convection is expected to lift north as an effective warm front. Current guidance is in good consensus that this will stall out across NE Iowa into Central Wisconsin by mid-afternoon. Satellite imagery is already showing this boundary clearly across Central Iowa where skies have cleared early this afternoon. Convective inhibition will erode through the coming hours with daytime heating and ascent ahead of a shortwave upper trough ejecting into the Upper Midwest will support initiation by mid-afternoon. The airmass will be plenty unstable with 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE present on area soundings once the cap finally erodes. Supercells are expected to go up quickly with steep mid level lapse rates and abundant effective bulk shear across the region (30-50+ kts). All hazards will be in play with these storms but the main threats look to be large to very large hail and a few tornadoes (potentially strong). The parameter space is thermodynamically supportive of large hail. Hodographs show a fairly straight, elongated hodograph with a little bit of low level curvature. Think the best threat for tornadoes will be along and near the boundary where low level helicity can be maximized. The supercells are expected to move quickly off to the east and grow upscale into a more linear feature where damaging winds will take over as the primary threat. Luckily, hydro concerns remain limited as storms are expected to form in areas that didn't see significant rainfall from yesterday's batch of storms. These storms should also be moving at a good clip which will limit the impacts of heavy rainfall in a given area. The environment is certainly favorable for some significant storms this afternoon and early evening with the Day 1 Enhanced Risk in place with significant hail and tornado probabilities in place across southwestern Wisconsin and northeastern Iowa. Severe Storm Potential Wednesday The severe threat for Wednesday will hinge a lot upon how much the airmass can recover from this afternoon/evening's storms. The airmass will remain persistently warm and moist as yet another surface low will move into Iowa, likely putting southeastern portions of our area in the warm sector - again. Ongoing showers and storms may inhibit how much we can destabilize by the afternoon. If we can destabilize and get enough diurnal heating, the environment would be supportive of strong to severe storms with around 1000 J/kg of CAPE. Shear profiles this far north don't look particularly impressive but low level helicity near the warm front may be enough to support a low tornado risk. Again, this will depend heavily on lingering convection tonight and into tomorrow morning with hopefully better consensus among models with the 00Z and 06Z suites. Storms Ramp Back Up Friday After a brief lull in activity for Thursday, we ramp back up into severe chances for Friday. A deep trough is expected to take shape over the Rockies late in the week. As this slides east, southwesterly flow is expected to increase across the area. At the surface, a bit of a complicated pattern is set to take shape with two semi-weak surface lows, one over the Northern Plains and another over the Central Plains. Out ahead of these lows, a broad warm sector will develop across much of the Mississippi River Valley. With increasing ascent from the upper trough and surface lift from a cold front that moves east, a line of storms is expected to develop sometime Friday west of our area. Steep mid level lapse rates and a strengthening low/mid level jet at 40-60 kts will support initial supercell development before storms form into a QLCS. Thermodynamic profiles show a broad area of 2000-3000 J/kg across our area with slightly curved and elongated hodographs. With all of this coming together, SPC has put our area in a Day 4 Slight Risk with an Enhanced Risk just off to our south and west, where shear and overall forcing looks a bit more robust. Snow Showers This Weekend? As the aforementioned surface low(s) move off to the north and east into Ontario by 12Z Saturday, the long draping cold front will have finally made its way through the area. With the low strengthening slightly, the pressure gradient will remain tight enough to allow strong cold air advection into the area early Saturday. While high temperatures Friday will be in the 70s areawide, highs by Saturday will have fallen 20-30 degrees into the low 40s to mid 50s. Model guidance is even indicating some the precipitation on the back side of the low could be a rain/snow mix or just all light snow. Which is a wild thing to think about after a week of 70+ degree temperatures but such is life in the midwest during spring. Any snow should not be impactful with no accumulations expected given that ground temperatures should support melting on contact. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1228 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 IFR and MVFR ceilings will become VFR by mid-afternoon. Scattered storms will develop along and south of the Interstate 90 by mid-afternoon and then move south by late afternoon. Some of these storms could be strong to severe. Dense fog will develop tonight and continue into the mid-morning of Wednesday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1254 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Widespread hydrologic concerns are not expected with this afternoon and evenings activity given the fast expected storm motion and overall impacted location being south of where the heaviest rain for yesterday's event has fallen. Given that SW Wisconsin is under threat, the main basin of concern would be the Kickapoo as it's notoriously flashy and could see rises into Action/Minor with this activity. Flood watches and warnings continue for locations along the Black and Trempealeau Rivers primarily with other locations impacted including the Yellow River at Necedah and various spots along the Wisconsin River. The larger basins seem more at risk as we move through the rest of the week with continued chances for rain today, tomorrow, and Friday. None of these events look to provide particularly heavy rain but the repeated activity will likely cause river rises along area basins. Flash flooding is not of great concern either but rain rates with the strongest thunderstorms may support local ponding. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Barendse AVIATION...Boyne HYDROLOGY...Barendse  148 FXUS62 KMLB 141755 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 155 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 154 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - A High Risk for rip currents persists at area beaches today. - Remaining mostly dry over the next several days with a warming trend; Near record highs in the lower 90s late this week and into the weekend over the interior. - Next cold front forecast to cross the area Sunday night into early Monday and bring a small chance for showers early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 154 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Today-Tonight...Ridge aloft remains extended across the area as surface ridge axis of high pressure across the Atlantic persists north of central FL. This will continue a warm and mostly dry pattern across the region today, with highs near to slightly above normal, ranging from near 80 degrees at the coast and low to mid 80s across the interior. Despite an overall dry airmass (PW values around 0.7-0.8"), there is enough moisture in the lower levels for the easterly flow to generate a few onshore moving sprinkles, mainly along the Treasure Coast through this morning and into the afternoon. Radar imagery has already shown some very light showers move onshore Martin County. However, not expecting much in the way of measurable rainfall with this activity, so rain chances remain low (10% or less). Models show airmass drying out even further in tonight which should end any of these light showers and sprinkles. Easterly winds increase up to 10-15 mph today, with gusts to around 20 mph. Onshore winds then diminish into tonight with temps falling into the mid 50s to low 60s across the interior, and in the low to mid 60s at the coast. HREF guidance shows a better potential for patchy fog late tonight through early Wednesday morning across to northwest of the I-4 corridor. A High Risk for life-threatening rip currents persists at area beaches today due to a lingering swell. Entering the surf is not advised. Wednesday-Sunday...Ridge axis remains north of the area through Thursday and then model guidance shows it settling southward across the area late week into the weekend, which will weaken the onshore flow. Ridge aloft will remain extended across the area, continuing a warming trend through the period and overall dry conditions. Onshore winds and inland moving sea breeze will continue to keep warmest max temperatures across the interior each day. Highs will remain closer to normal in the upper 70s/low 80s at the coast Wednesday and Thursday, and be warmer than normal inland, in the mid to upper 80s. As temperatures continue to climb into late week and into the weekend, max temps will become above normal area-wide, ranging from the low to mid 80s at the coast and then climbing into the low 90s across the interior. For inland sites, these highs will be nearing record values, but greatest potential for any tied or broken daily records still look to be at Leesburg Friday through Sunday. Monday-Tuesday...A weak cold front is forecast to move through the area Sunday night into early Monday. This will finally lead to a cooling trend into early next week and also bring a return of rain chances. However, for now PoPs remain on the lower end (around 20- 30%), as there remains some differences in overall moisture return and shower coverage between the GFS/ECMWF, with the GFS still slightly wetter than the ECMWF. Both models show a period of breezy to windy northeast to east winds developing behind the front that will continue into Tuesday. && .MARINE... Issued at 154 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Boating conditions will continue to become more favorable the remainder of the week and into the weekend. Ridge axis of high pressure across the Atlantic remains north of the waters through midweek and then settles southward across central Florida late this week and into the weekend. E/SE winds will generally continue over the next several days in the prevailing flow as ridge axis remains to the north, and then into the afternoon/evening hours Friday through Sunday with the developing east coast sea breeze as ridge settles across the area. Wind speeds will range from 5-15 knots, with seas 3-5 feet today and Wednesday falling to 2-4 feet into late week, and then 2-3 feet into the weekend. A few light showers and sprinkles may develop from time to time in the onshore flow, but overall dry conditions are forecast for the next several days. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 145 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions through the TAF period. Mostly dry conditions today, but an isolated sprinkle can not be ruled out. However, since confidence is so low (rain chances 10 percent or less), VCSH is not included in the TAF. ESE winds of 8-12 KT with gusts to 20 KT this afternoon will decrease to 5-10 KT after 00/01Z before becoming light later in the overnight hours. ESE winds will increase to 8-12 KT once again by mid morning Wednesday with occasional gusts to 20 KT in the afternoon, mainly along the coast from VRB southward, as winds become enhanced behind the east coast sea breeze. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 154 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Prevailing onshore winds will generally continue through Thursday as ridge axis of high pressure across the Atlantic remains just north of the area. Easterly winds will increase up to 10-15 mph each afternoon through midweek, with strongest winds generally at the coast. Gusts to around 20 mph will also be possible today. Dry conditions are forecast to prevail through late week, with a gradual warming trend continuing over the next several days. Onshore flow will keep Min RH values above critical levels in the mid 40s to mid 50s at the coast. However, well inland, across areas near to northwest of I-4, Min RH values as low as 35-40 percent are forecast this afternoon, with more critical values in the low to mid 30s across this far inland portion of east central Florida Wednesday and Thursday. However, wind speeds are forecast to remain below 15 mph across this area where lower RH values occur. Dispersion values will be Good to Very Good both today and Wednesday. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 154 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Record Highs for April 17-19: April 17th April 18th April 19th Daytona Beach 89 2022 92 1967 92 1968 Leesburg 92 1991 90 1990 92 2020 Sanford 92 1967 94 1967 94 2020 Orlando 95 1922 93 1922 94 1922 Melbourne 90 2006 91 2015 93 2015 Vero Beach 91 2021 92 2015 93 1969 Fort Pierce 93 1919 94 2015 92 1988 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 60 80 59 82 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 61 84 61 86 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 65 79 65 80 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 63 79 63 80 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 60 86 60 88 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 60 84 59 86 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 62 84 62 87 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 62 79 62 81 / 0 0 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Weitlich AVIATION...Watson  344 FXUS64 KSJT 141755 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1255 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorm chances will persist into Wednesday, with a threat for severe storms each day. - A cold front is expected on Saturday, bringing low rain chances and considerably cooler temperatures for the upcoming weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1256 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Another day with isolated to scattered thunderstorms expected to develop this afternoon and evening. A dryline will again shift east to near the western border of the Big Country and Concho Valley, with CAPE values of 3000+ ahead of the dryline. Again though, convergence along the dryline is relatively weak and there are questions on just where and how widespread any convection will be. As we have talked about the last few days, it looks like a weak shortwave may approach the Southern Plains later this afternoon and evening as well, although additional support from it is still uncertain as well. CAMs are all over the place, although most of them show considerably less convection than it looked like a few days ago. With that said, the high model blend POPs (60-80%) just seems overdone for this afternoon and evening with almost none of the CAMs showing convection this widespread. Will decrease POPs back to something in the 30-50% range for most area. Given the instability and much like Monday, any storm that can develop will likely become severe with large to very large hail possible. Low level jet increases to 35-45kts this evening and this may keep any storm alive into the overnight hours. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 1256 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Expect a repeat for Wednesday as a lazy dryline will fire off a few to isolated thunderstorms during the late afternoon and evening hours. The combination of moderate/strong instability and good deep layer shear will result in a few severe storms. Looks like mainly quiet weather for Thursday across the area as weak upper level ridging will be in control. The next strong storm system with a sharper dryline will move into the Central and Southern Plains Friday. Looks like the more organized severe weather will remain north of our area. However, isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across west central Texas during the late afternoon into Friday night. A cold front moves south across the area Saturday with cooler and dry weather this weekend into early next week. Temperatures will be slightly above normal this week. Please keep up with the latest weather information as the month of April is severe weather season. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1247 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 MVFR stratus will dissipate this afternoon, holding on the longest in southern terminals, including KSOA and KJCT until mid afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms may affect the terminals tonight, mainly after 00Z/Wednesday. IFR stratus otherwise returns along to KSOA and KJCT toward or just after midnight, with MVFR stratus returning late tonight across the rest of the terminals. IFR/MVFR stratus scatters out mid/late morning at KABI and KSJT, but may persist into early afternoon for southern terminals. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 83 65 84 62 / 20 50 30 10 San Angelo 81 63 84 61 / 30 40 30 10 Junction 83 62 79 60 / 20 40 40 10 Brownwood 81 64 80 62 / 20 50 50 20 Sweetwater 83 65 86 61 / 40 50 20 0 Ozona 78 63 82 61 / 50 50 30 20 Brady 81 64 79 62 / 20 50 40 20 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION...04  252 FXUS64 KMEG 141756 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1256 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1255 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Daytime high temperatures through Friday will be more typical of early June, as a strong upper level high pressure ridge continues to dominate the Midsouth's weather. Friday will likely be the warmest day of the week, with highs near 90 along and south of Interstate 40. - Despite the presence of the upper ridge, a passing disturbance will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday. - A cold front will pass through the Midsouth on Saturday, bringing another chance of showers and thunderstorms. Sunny, cool and less humid conditions will prevail for Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Monday) Issued at 1255 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The primary weather story through Friday remains the well-above normal temperatures. The near-record warmth is courtesy of an anonymously strong upper level ridge extending from the Gulf through the Southeast. Over the Midsouth, EPS shows forecast 500mb temperatures between the 95th and 99th percentile of model climatology, indicative of the upper ridge's strength. Friday will likely bring the warmest surface temperatures, with highs around 90 along and south of I-40. This would be a normal high temperature for Memphis in early/mid June. The stagnant upper air pattern will finally break down late this week. A positively-tilted upper trough will lift from the 4- corners area this afternoon to the upper Midwest by Thursday afternoon. This feature will suppress midlevel heights over the Midsouth and provide up to 50kt of 0-6km bulk shear around sunrise. Deep layer shear will decrease to 30 to 40kt Thursday afternoon, in advance of a trailing southern branch shortwave. 00Z LREF joint probabilities of 1000+ J/kg CAPE and 30+ kt of deep layer sheer exceed 50 percent for most of the Midsouth Thursday afternoon. Model soundings depict relatively straight hodographs and steep (7-7.5C/km) midlevel lapse rates, suggestive of large hail potential. This would particularly be the case along and north of the I-40 corridor, where deep layer shear is strongest. Transitory shortwave ridging will build into the Midsouth Thursday night. The ridge axis will be east of the Midsouth by Friday afternoon, while low level warm advection strengthens under diffluent flow aloft. A high amplitude northern branch trough axis will pivot through the Central Plains early Saturday morning, driving heights down over the mid-Mississippi River Valley, and over the Midsouth later on Saturday morning. A relatively strong surface cold front will follow the midlevel height falls, with passage through the Midsouth expected from late morning through late afternoon/early evening. This front will provide a break from the early summer-like heat, with highs Sunday generally in the upper 60s. Dewpoints will cool to the lower 30s, driving minimum RH levels below 30 percent Sunday afternoon, increasing fire danger for areas that don't receive wetting rainfall on Saturday. Temperatures will return to above normal early next week. Beyond then, substantial differences between the GEFS and EPS begin to emerge over the western CONUS, adding uncertainty beyond day 7 of the forecast. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1255 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 High confidence (>90% chance) for VFR conditions as upper-level ridging persists through the period. Elevated S/SW winds will continue to be gusty through sunset with gusts diminishing shortly thereafter. Another inversion looks to keep gusty winds from mixing down to the surface overnight, but gusts will resume shortly after 12z tomorrow. DNM && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1255 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Fire weather concerns will be minimal throughout the week as MinRH remains above 30 percent. Wetting rain chances exist on Thursday for areas along and north of I-40. A cold front will bring additional rainfall anticipated Saturday, across a broad portion of the Midsouth. Despite cool temperatures on Sunday, MinRH values Sunday afternoon are expected to drop below 30 percent over the majority of the Midsouth. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB AVIATION...DNM  916 FXUS62 KJAX 141758 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 158 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Moderate Risk of Rip Currents For Area Beaches Today and Wednesday - Extreme to Exceptional Drought Continues. Dry & Warmer This Week. Critically Low Minimum Humidity Values inland each day. Dry Conditions Will Support Increase Risk of Fire Spread - Fog Potential Each Morning through Friday && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main Highlights Today and Tonight: - Near record warmth inland areas with highs upper 80s/near 90F - Locally dense fog possible during late night/early morning hours - Moderate rip current risk at NE FL/SE GA beaches Dry, sunny, and warm weather continues today with high pressure dominating over the area. This morning's sounding and current GOES- 19 Total Precipitable Water analysis shows PWATs around 0.6" today. Elevated fire danger persists today with low minimum relative humidity values over inland locations. High temperatures will range today, with an onshore breeze keeping coastal temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s, hotter as you go inland with some locations reaching 90 degrees today before the Atlantic sea breeze pushes inland later this afternoon. Enough moisture coupled with calm winds overnight will prompt inland fog development over most of northeast Florida and southeast Georgia, with highest chances for patchy dense fog just west of I-95. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Fog potential each morning especially inland - Dry & warm weather persist Surface high pressure centered over Bermuda will continue to extend WSW across the FL peninsula as upper ridging remains over the SE US Wednesday into Thursday. Dry conditions, sunny skies and above seasonable temperatures are expected under strong subsidence. Highs will range from the upper 70s/low 80s along the coast to the upper 80s/low 90s inland. Fire risk will remain elevated with the dry conditions and very warm temperatures. The only other noteworthy weather impact will be patchy to areas of fog inland each morning, with patchy "superfog" possible near smoke from any ongoing wildfires. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s to low 60s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: - The dry weather will persist, with potential record highs Fri/Sat - Morning fog potential to continue each day. Friday, mid level trough will pass north of the region with west to southwest flow and dry, sunny conditions as the Atlantic seabreeze remains closer to the east coast. Saturday, stacked ridging returns over the FL peninsula with weak southerly flow allowing both Gulf and Atlantic seabreeze to move inland. By Sunday, a deeper mid to upper level trough will move across the deep south, pushing a cold front into the area Sunday night. However, moisture will be limited resulting in a dry frontal passage. Breezy northeast winds and another dry airmass develop in the wake of the front for early next week. Record high temperatures into the low 90s expected Friday and Saturday with isolated mid 90s over the interior, cooling slightly Sunday into the upper 80s, and then to near normal levels behind the cold front Monday. Lows will be a little above normal during the period cooling to near normal Monday night. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... VFR through late this evening. Patchy inland fog will develop after midnight, likely impacting our inland sites (JAX, VQQ, and GNV) closer to just before sunrise. At this time, MVFR conditions are expected. && .MARINE... High pressure ridging will be the prevailing feature through mid to late this week, with flow gradually shifting more southeasterly to southerly over the next several days. Next frontal passage is expected Sunday Night with potential for Small Craft Advisory conditions on Monday. Rip Currents and Surf: Solid Moderate Risk of Rips will continue for NE FL/SE GA beaches in the SE/onshore flow the rest of the week with surf/breakers mainly in the 2-3 ft range. && .FIRE WEATHER... - Low Inland Min RH Values Each Day This Week High pressure over the area will create dry, sunny, and very warm conditions inland through the weekend. This, combined with the exceptional/extreme drought, will continue the elevated fire risk across the area. Critically low Min RH values inland will repeat each afternoon lowering to the mid 20s to low 30s into Saturday. Wind flow pattern will prevail from the southeast Wednesday, south on Thursday, southwesterly Friday with the Gulf seabreeze moving further inland and the Atlantic seabreeze staying closer to the coast. Dispersions remain in the good range through the week. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy inland fog will develop each morning this week. There will be potential for Localized "superfog" each morning near the vicinity of any smoke from ongoing wildfires. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures at NE FL/SE GA climate sites: April 14: JAX 90/2007, CRG 90/2023, GNV 91/2019, AMG 91/2007 April 15: JAX 90/2006, CRG 91/2001, GNV 92/1936, AMG 91/1954 April 16: JAX 90/1972, CRG 91/2011, GNV 90/1967, AMG 92/1967 April 17: JAX 93/1967, CRG 90/2006, GNV 90/1945, AMG 91/1967 April 18: JAX 94/1967, CRG 89/2018, GNV 91/1967, AMG 92/1967 April 19: JAX 92/1995, CRG 91/2013, GNV 94/2011, AMG 91/1968 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 89 56 91 60 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 80 60 80 62 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 85 57 87 59 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 81 58 81 61 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 88 55 90 57 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 88 55 89 58 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None. && $$  444 FXUS63 KMQT 141758 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 158 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A period of generally dry weather is expected today and tonight, though some showers and storms may graze the UP. Additional waves of showers and storms move through Wednesday onwards. - A prolonged period of well above freezing temperatures and higher dewpoints will bring increased snowmelt. This, combined with periods of potentially heavy rainfall and thunderstorms, will accelerate river rises and lead to ponding of water in areas with poor drainage. A Flood Watch remains in place for all of Upper Michigan through Wednesday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 244 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Early this morning, low pressure is analyzed over IA, with a baroclinic zone extending northeast of this all the way through the northern LP. Forcing along this boundary was able to bring in quite a bit of rain to the UP tonight, but this is tapering off from west to east at this time; rain should entirely in the eastern UP into the pre-dawn hours. In its wake, with plenty of low-level moisture and light winds, areas of fog are developing across the UP, dense at times across the central and eastern UP. Otherwise, expect a mild night with temperatures only falling as far as the mid 30s near Lake Superior, and the upper 30s and lower 40s elsewhere. Expect a period of generally drier weather conditions as weak ridging builds in from northern Ontario today through Wednesday. Hopefully the slightly cooler air from northern Ontario and drier conditions will help to reduce the flooding risk across the area for the rest of this week. That being said, a couple of weak shortwaves moving through the Upper Midwest could bring additional showers and thunderstorms to the U.P. later this evening into tonight, the first grazing us to the north and the other to the south. Whether this shortwave brings precipitation into the U.P. or not will depend on the strength of the ridging from northern Ontario. In spite of lackluster QPF, however, flooding concerns will continue at least through today with the ongoing snowmelt and lingering impacts from this past night's rain. Otherwise, expect another warm day as temperatures peak in the 40s near Lake Superior, the 50s inland over the eastern UP, and the lower/mid 60s across the interior of the central and western UP. Temperatures fall back into the mid 30s to mid 40s tonight before peaking again in the 40s and 50s for most on Wednesday. Another shortwave low moving through the Upper Midwest could bring additional rain showers and thunderstorms to the area late Wednesday into Thursday. This remains conditional on the strength of ridging extending from Ontario, which could suppress this feature more to the south over the Lower Peninsula. The warmest conditions of the weak move in on Friday as a cold air from northern Canada causes a robust cold front to develop across the central CONUS late this week. With PWATs looking to rapidly increase to around 1 inch in the warm sector via Gulf air ahead of the cold front, the NBM brings up to a 90% chance for temperatures greater than 70 to the western half of the U.P. as dewpoints have a 20 to 50% chance of exceeding 50 degrees (highest chances in the south central and interior west). Combined with intensifying southerly winds, this becomes a recipe for accelerating snowmelt on the snowpack that we have left across the area. Now, where guidance diverges for this week is whether or not a shortwave low lifts through the area before and/or after the arrival of the cold front. Expect higher rain totals if a shortwave rolls through the area before the cold front moves through, as the cold front could bring additional showers and storms across the area into early this weekend. However, if a shortwave low rolls through the area immediately behind the cold front (like the latest deterministic Euro is suggesting), then the western half of the U.P. may be in for a significant wet snowfall event. Therefore, while the confidence is low at this time, we will keep an eye out to see if model guidance continues to converge on a solution. Regardless, there is fairly good agreement that colder temperatures and at the very least light snowfall will be seen over the northwest to west wind snow belts behind the cold front to end the weekend. Expect a transition to more normal temperatures early next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 157 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 While SAW and IWD start the 18Z TAF period out with low end MVFR cigs and VFR vis, CMX will continue to observe upslope LIFR to IFR fog and low cigs. All sites are expected to deteriorate to VLIFR tonight as widespread dense fog sets up over the region courtesy of ample low level moisture with weak flow. && .MARINE... Issued at 244 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 NE winds continue to gust to around 20kts across the western arm of the lake, but slowly decrease this afternoon. Meanwhile, areas of fog are developing across the lake this morning, and may be dense at times. Fog diminishes into the afternoon ahead of another batch of showers (with some thunder) moving over the lake his evening. Fog develops again tonight into early Wednesday. Otherwise, expect winds generally from the N to NE to remain below 20kts Wednesday through Thursday. The main pattern shift for the period looks to come late this week through this weekend as a cold front approaches from the central CONUS. Winds intensify out of the south and southeast Friday, with over a 30% chance (highest over the open waters of the eastern half of the lake) of increasing to gales of at least 34 knots by Friday night before the cold front moves through the lake around the Saturday time period. Behind the cold front, as the strong cold air advection improves mixing of the higher winds aloft to the sfc, expect the winds to become northwesterly as gale chances increase up to 50% late in the day through Saturday night. In addition to the winds, some thunderstorms may be seen ahead of and along the cold front late Friday into Saturday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 244 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 In response to the ongoing snowmelt and lingering impacts from heavy rainfall that occurred this past night, river rises and flooding of low-lying areas are expected/are occurring across Upper Michigan, particularly over the south central where another 1-2 inches fell. While much of the area near Wisconsin lost the entirety of their snowpack, several inches to over a foot(!) of SWE remains over the Keweenaw and higher elevations of the north central U.P., as well as portions of the eastern U.P. upslope from Lake Superior over the northwest wind belts. Thus, while flooding concerns look to start dwindling over the areas near Wisconsin after Tuesday, expect continued snowmelt over the remaining areas to continue river rises over those areas with or downbasin from an area with notable snowpack remaining. Because of this and the rainfall chances expected through the rest of this week, river flooding to bankfull conditions are being seen across several rivers across Upper Michigan. Starting with the Black River near Bessemer, the quick loss of snowpack with the rainfall yesterday has created Minor Flooding conditions which are forecasted to continue until Tuesday; bankfull conditions for the Black River look to continue until Tuesday night. Moving over to the Sturgeon River at Alston, Minor Flooding is currently being realized; with plenty of snowpack left to melt, expect the river levels to slowly rise the rest of this week into early this weekend. The high river levels at Alston and high flow at Prickett Dam may also bring elevated river levels to Chassell later this week; we will continue to monitor the local observations over there and issue products accordingly should bankfull and/or floodstage be achieved along the Sturgeon River at Chassell. Moving along to the Paint River at Crystal Falls, Moderate Flooding is expected starting late Tuesday as we move into Minor Flood Stage this evening. While not quite looking to get into Major Flood Stage, river heights are currently expected to get up to 8.5", which does start to approach the River Flood of Record. Moving into the Michigamme River basin, some bankfull conditions to Minor River Flooding looks possible at Bangston Bridge and Witch Lake late this week as the snowmelt in the basin progressively melts and increases flows with time. As for the Ford River, we are currently flirting with bankfull conditions this afternoon and could go over tonight given the chances for rainfall (some potentially heavy at times). Moving over to the Escanaba River, bankfull to Minor River Flood conditions are expected over the Middle Branch at Humboldt and the Eastern Branch at Gwinn. Given the recent call with one of the dam operators in Escanaba about the high flows, will continue to keep an eye on the snowmelt in the north central as rainfall moving through tonight could help to push- up cfs to hazardous levels. As for the Sturgeon River (Delta County) at Nahma Junction, the recent heavy rainfall and snowmelt has caused river levels to exceed bankfull; I'd be shocked if the river doesn't go into Minor Flood Stage shortly as even the HEFS shows the river at about 100% for getting into Minor Flood Stage. As for the Manistique River, the increasing snowmelt and heavy rainfall recently (and potentially tonight) could bring above bankfull river levels, potentially causing ponding of water and inundation in low- lying areas near the river Tuesday and beyond; a Flood Advisory may need to be issued for this river's area of influence in the future. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for MIZ001>007-009>014- 084-085. Lake Superior... Dense Fog Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ265>267. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...LC AVIATION...77 MARINE...LC HYDROLOGY...  079 FXUS61 KCLE 141758 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 158 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Convection has developed along a line extending from near Erie, PA southwest towards Marion, OH. This line has developed along a theta-e gradient and is expected to push out of the area over the next few hours. There is not expected to be any severe storms with this line. In addition, SPC has extended the enhanced risk into the far reaches of NWOH, clipping Lucas County in our area. This risk is primarily concerning the overnight convection as models are slowly coming into more agreement that an MCS will develop over WI/MI and push east-southeast overnight. The decaying remnants of this MCS may clip the northern portion of the CWA, which is where the highest concern for severe weather is. Will continue to monitor the 12Z guidance for additional changes to the forecast. As of now, all hazards will be at play tonight with strong winds the biggest concern. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Multiple rounds of storms likely today through Thursday. Storms may be strong to severe at times, best chance this evening into tonight and on Wednesday afternoon/evening. 2) Multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rain may result in flooding, especially on Wednesday. 3) Above normal temperatures expected through Saturday with cooler temperatures returning towards the end of the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Unsettled weather with periodic showers and thunderstorm complexes are expected through Thursday as a frontal boundary wavers to the north of the local area and a series of shortwaves move across the boundary. Given the lack of forcing with the best upper level support to the north of the area, convection over the next couple of days will rely on mesoscale features and the resulting confidence in timing, placement, and strengths of storms remains low at this time. Round 1 (Early Today): The actual first round of storms has exited the area, however the upstream convection over southern Wisconsin and Michigan will need to be monitored through this morning. It's possible that the overnight convection has left some lingering boundaries across the area so will need to keep an eye on the potential for enhanced convergence as this weakening convection moves in. It's possible that the atmosphere is still stabilized due to lingering cloud cover and a mid- level cap, but some elevated instability remains in place. Either way, will need to keep an eye on the potential for elevated storms that could produce gusty winds and hail this morning into this afternoon. Round 2 (This Evening/Tonight): The severe weather potential later this afternoon into tonight will depend on how the early- day convection pans out. Early-day convection may help stabilize things later this evening. On the other hand, the convection could leave behind boundaries and a source for convergence for evening convection maintenance and growth. Additional convection will move in from the northwest this evening into tonight, although there is some potential for scattered showers and storms developing out ahead of the main line of convection at some point early to mid evening. There's quite a bit of disagreement in the forecast amongst CAMs, but overall confidence in the potential for precipitation in general is high for tonight. Despite the unfavorable diurnal timing, relatively high shear values due to a 50 knot LLJ moving into the northern portion of the CWA and deep moisture will result in a favorable environment for thunderstorm maintenance. With this round, damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazard but large hail and a few tornadoes cannot be ruled out given the wind field and lapse rates. Generally expect a weakening trend as the storms move into the area overnight. If stability stays in place, it may be more of a heavy rain scenario (see Key Message 2). There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) of severe weather across northern Ohio with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) over the remainder of the local area. Round 3 (Wednesday): The air mass will change very little on Wednesday and if anything, moisture will increase and forcing may increase slightly as the aforementioned frontal boundary sags a bit further south. Moist and deep west/southwest flow will likely produce sufficient destabilization for scattered showers and storms on Wednesday and CAMs suggest that yet another complex of storms will traverse east across the local area Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. As with previous days, damaging wind gusts and hail will be possible in these storms, although the severe weather threat will depend on mesoscale features that have not yet been resolved. There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) of severe weather across interior NE OH and NW PA with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) elsewhere. Round 4 (Thursday): Additional showers and storms are possible as a cold front pushes east across the local area Thursday into early Friday. Instability may be a bit lower during this timeframe, but the upper level support will allow for potential for organized convection ahead of or along the cold front. There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather on Thursday. A brief break in convection is expected on Friday, but showers and storm chances return on Saturday as a cold front approaches and moves east across the region. Will need to keep an eye on potential for organized storms on Saturday in the upcoming days. KEY MESSAGE 2... Moderate to heavy rainfall rates will accompany thunderstorms through Thursday. The deep, moist west/southwest flow will produce precipitable water values between 1.2 and 1.5 inches (possibly higher at times) through early Thursday. To add some context for how unseasonably high these PWATs are, the 90th percentile for PWATs at surrounding upper air sounding sites for mid-April are generally under an inch with daily maxima of up to about 1.25 inches. Storms should be relatively progressive today into tonight, although the efficient rainfall rates and multiple opportunities for storms could cause some rises on rivers/creeks/streams and cause some minor flooding issues in urban/poor drainage areas. Any precipitation today and tonight will help prime waterways and soils for additional precipitation on Wednesday. As of early this morning, 1-hr FFG values across the area are generally up to 1.5 inches (with locally higher values up to 2 inches) with 3-hr FFG values of generally 1.75-3 inches. Expect these values to decrease with any heavier rainfall this evening/tonight. There's also some potential for backbuilding/training Wednesday into Wednesday night, which would increase flooding concerns for localized areas. Confidence in QPF (especially axes of higher QPF values) is low and will depend on where storms occur, but several CAMs have at least 1 to 2 inches of QPF across portions of the area through early Thursday with locally higher amounts possible where repeated rounds of rain occur. KEY MESSAGE 3... Persistent warm air advection will result in well above normal temperatures through Saturday. Instead of normal lower 60s for highs, highs will be in the 70s with lower 80s possible in areas that clear out a bit today and Wednesday. Cooler temperatures may materialize with persistent cloud cover and precipitation. It will be quite muggy thanks to dew points in the lower 60s. Temperatures will temporarily moderate to below normal values in the 50s Sunday and Monday, but guidance favors a warming trend by the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/... There are thunderstorms moving through central Ohio this currently that are bringing visibility down to IFR and LIFR in the heaviest portions. This line should continue eastward and impact KMFD,KCAK, and KYNG over the next few hours. It will be fairly quick moving so non-VFR conditions won't last long. Thunderstorms may impact KCLE as the top portion of the line moves through, though conditions should not deteriorate as much that far north. Winds with the line have gusted up to 35 knots out of the west-southwest though up to 40 knots is possible as well. After this line moves through, VFR conditions are expected until 05-08Z tomorrow morning when a line of thunderstorms will move in from the north. There is some uncertainty as to the spatial extent and when the line will reach the area, so opted for a PROB30 at this time. This will need to be refined in the coming TAF package this evening. Winds are currently 10-15 knots sustained gusting around 20-30 knots out of the southwest. Winds at the surface will diminish tonight by 00-02Z down around 12 knots. There may be some turbulent air in the lower levels, but LLWS concerns should be minimal with lower level winds at around 30 knots. By early tomorrow morning, winds will start gusting up to 20 knots and continue through the end of the TAF period. Outlook...Periods of non-VFR conditions are expected in showers and thunderstorms through Thursday. && .MARINE... Winds across Lake Erie remain between 10-20 knots out of the south to southwest today. As with previous days, the resultant waves of 3-5 feet will be higher in the open waters and towards Canada. Generally, winds will remain out of the southwest at 10-15 knots across the lake through Friday. High pressure will build into the region on Friday and winds will become light at around 5 knots and variable. By Saturday, winds will increase again out of the south to 15-20 knots as a warm front moves north across the lake. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through Thursday morning for OHZ003-006>009-018-019. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...04/15 AVIATION...23 MARINE...23  660 FXUS65 KPUB 141759 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1159 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Critical fire weather conditions across the plains today, with rain and snow showers over the mountains - After a break Wednesday, critical fire weather conditions return to much of the region on Thursday and potentially Friday - New storm system arrives Fri/Sat bringing a chance for rain and mountain snow, along with widespread below freezing temperatures possible Saturday and Sunday mornings && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1234 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Upper level low over nrn AZ this morning, with widespread rain and snow showers over the wrn half of Colorado ahead of the system. Web cams show snow over Wolf Creek and Monarch Passes as of 1 am, though roads so far look mostly wet to slushy in spots. With snow showers persisting into the morning, won't be too surprised if passes along the Continental Divide eventually see some slushy/icy roads by sunrise, especially Highway 160 from South Fork up to Wolf Creek. Mountains and valleys east of the Continental Divide will see scattered rain/snow showers through sunrise, though precip here will be fairly spotty and light. Upper low forecast to move across Colorado and weaken today and tonight, with rain/snow showers continuing across the mountains and valleys through the day. Could even be a brief thunderstorm over mainly the higher terrain as lapse rates steepen under the upper low/trough. Accumulating snow looks limited to the higher peaks, especially along the Continental Divide, where storm totals of 3-6 inches are possible by this evening. Along I-25 and across the plains, strong west winds develop late this morning, continuing into the afternoon, as upper jet moves overhead and surface low spins up near the KS border. Expect gusts of 35-45 mph to be common from the Sangres eastward, perhaps a few 50 plus mph gusts in the enhanced gap flow region near Walsenburg. Red Flag Warning will remain in effect for the plains/I-25 for much of the day, as humidity will fall toward 10 percent in the afternoon. Windy across the Sangres and San Luis Valley/Upper Arkansas Valley as well, but relative humidity here will be much higher, tempering fire danger somewhat. Tonight, cold front sweeps through the plains in the evening, ending the critical fire weather threat as humidity increases substantially behind the front. Window for showers along I-25 is fairly small, limited to areas near the Palmer Divide/El Paso County during the evening, with a least a threat of a brief mix or period of snow under any heavier showers near the top of the Divide as snow levels fall toward 7k feet. Shower chances diminish quickly farther south, as best dynamic lift stays north. Precip ends quickly after midnight as low weakens and shifts east, with just a few sprinkles/flurries left by sunrise. On Wednesday, dry, breezy and slightly cooler conditions expected, with a few pockets of elevated fire danger through Fremont County as gap winds increase during the afternoon. Haven't issued a highlight here yet, as duration and areal extent of any critical conditions looks limited. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 1234 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 High fire danger returns to the area on Thursday, as southwest flow aloft strengthens ahead of next upper trough digging into the wrn U.S. Have issued a Fire Weather Watch for most of the region for Thu afternoon/evening, as vast majority of model and statistical guidance suggest wind gusts in the 30-45 mph range over the entire area. Trough then swings through the central Rockies Fri, quickly shifting into the plains on Sat. While system will be colder than the past few, trend in model/ensembles has been for a more northern track, keeping best lift and precip over the nrn half of Colorado, with lighter amounts south. Ahead of the system, may still see some critical fire weather conditions on the plains Fri ahead of the cold front, though frontal timing has slightly accelerated, with boundary near the NM border by late Fri afternoon in some of the 00z deterministic guidance. Still too early for any highlights, but expect another potentially active fire weather day for at least portions of the region. Best window for precip looks to be Fri afternoon/evening, mainly over the mountains, with trend toward a quicker trough ending precip by early Sat. Still looking at the potential for widespread below freezing temps Sat and Sun mornings, with readings in the teens and 20s possible mountains and high valleys, mainly 20s on the plains. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1141 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions remain expected at COS, PUB and ALS over the next 24 hours. Winds at COS and PUB will become gusty south to southwest 20-30kt through the early afternoon, as prefrontal trough deepens across the plains. COS could see a brief -shra through the late afternoon, before passing upper trough sends front across the plains with gusty north to northwest winds developing at COS and PUB through the early evening. Winds diminish remaining generally north to northwest through the overnight hours. Winds at ALS to remain gusty west to southwest 25-35kt through the late afternoon, becoming breezy west to northwest into the early evening, before diminishing overnight. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for COZ220>222-224>237. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ227>237. && $$ SHORT TERM...PETERSEN LONG TERM...PETERSEN AVIATION...MW