422 FXUS65 KTFX 141801 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1201 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Aviation Section Updated. .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong and gusty winds along the Rocky Mountain Front today, with strong winds shifting to the north-south orientated valleys of Southwest Montana on Wednesday. - A potent spring storm will bring accumulating snow to the Northern Rockies from Wednesday night through Thursday night, especially to Southwest Montana. - Below normal temperatures expected from Thursday through Friday. && .DISCUSSION... /Issued 504 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026/ - Meteorological Overview: Unsettled conditions are expected across the Northern Rockies through the remainder of the work week as zonal flow (today) backs to the southwest (tonight and Wednesday) ahead of a potent upper level wave digging into the Pacific Northwest. This upper level wave will continue to dig southeast and over the Great Basin through the day on Thursday before lifting northeast and over the Central Rockies and High Plains on Friday. At the surface a Pacific front will sweep east across the Northern Rockies by Wednesday evening, with a cold front quickly plunging south during the early morning hours on Thursday. Northwest flow will settle in over the Northern Rockies from Friday night through Saturday night before upper level ridging builds back in for the second half of the weekend and start to the work week. - Moldan - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: Strong Winds Today... Lee-side surface trough along the Rocky Mountain Front will begin to sharpen through the day as low pressure develops over Southern Alberta, with the surface pressure gradient peaking at between 0.125 to 0.15 mb/km from the mid-morning through the late afternoon hours across this area. H700 flow per NAEFS analysis will increase and peak at between 40-60kts from the afternoon through evening hours, with BUFKIT soundings for areas along the immediate Rocky Mountain Front over this timeframe supporting ideal thermal profiles for mountian wave activity. With this all in mind the best opportunity for strong winds looks to be from 12-9PM today when the winds will be enhanced from both pressure gradient force, mountain wave activity and overall mixing. While it is possible that these strong winds work east of the US Hwy 89 corridor to areas like Mission Lake over this timeframe, current thinking is that the strongest winds will remain along and west of the US Hwy 89 corridor (i.e. Browning and East Glacier Areas). Latest NBM4.3 probabilities for gusts in excess of 55 mph for Browning and East Glacier are at a 70% and 95% chance respectively, 25% and 65% chance for 65 mph, and 5% and 20% chance for 75 mph. With High Wind Criteria for the Browning and East Glacier Areas being 75 mph we will not be issuing any High Wind highlights at this point in time. High Wind Potential on Wednesday... Climate anomaly indicators such as the ECMWF EFIs and NAEFS support a climatologically unusual to very unusual wind event, with respect to mid-April climatology, within the north-south orientated valleys of Southwest Montana (south of the I-90 corridor) from the late morning through afternoon hours on Wednesday. ECMWF EFIs with respect to sustained wind speeds generally range from 0.6 to 0.8 for these valley locations, with gusts being slightly higher at 0.7 to nearly 0.9. H700 winds per NAEFS analysis peak around 30-40kts during the afternoon hours, which is 2.5 standard deviations above normal. Most critically of all these winds will be orientated parallel with the valleys, which is likely to lead to enhanced speeds due to terrain funneling. Additionally, rain showers developing across Southwest Montana within an environment characterized by inverted-V soundings will be capable of producing strong and erratic winds. Given these factors a High Wind Watch has been issued for the Beaverhead and Madison River Valleys in Southwest Montana from 9AM to 6PM Wednesday. Accumulating Snow from Wednesday afternoon/evening through Thursday night.... Model guidance (deterministic and ensemble) has been consistent over the last 3-4 days in bringing accumulating snow (what) to the Northern Rockies and High Plains over the timeframe (when); however, this consistency has waffled in where the heaviest snow actually falls. Over the past 48 hours the aforementioned guidance has largely settled in on a solution that places the heaviest snow over the Tobacco Root, Gravelly, Centennial, Madison, and Gallatin Ranges from Wednesday evening through Friday morning; however, even mountains and lower elevation location outside of this area across Southwest through North Central Montana will see some accumulating snow. Latest ECMWF EFIs support the potential for a very unusual snowfall for the West Yellowstone Area and southern halves of the Madison and Gallatin Ranges, with unusual snowfall for the remainder of the Southwest Montana mountains and Glacier National Park mountains. NBM4.3 probabilities for snowfall accumulations of 9" or more for the Tobacco Root, Gravelly, Centennial, Madison, and Gallatin Ranges is in excess of a 70% chance, with between a 45-55% chance for Raynolds and Targhee Passes. Given these high probabilities and run-to-run consistency over the past 48 hours a Winter Storm Watch has been issued for the Gallatin and Madison County Mountains and Centennial Mountains; including the cities of Big Sky, West Yellowstone, Targhee Pass, and Raynolds Pass from Wednesday evening through Friday morning. This watch may need to be expanded to include the East Glacier Park Region given similar probabilities; however, given that Marias Pass has only a 35% chance for 9" of snow current thinking is that this area could be covered with a Winter Weather Advisory given that the most impactful snow will occur in GNP where the park is largely still closed. Otherwise, most locations have been trending towards Winter Weather Advisory level snowfall amounts, which can be addressed as the event draws nearer. - Moldan && .AVIATION... 14/18Z TAF Period Breezy west to southwest winds pick up this afternoon, with the strongest winds along the Rocky Mountain Front. Wind gusts of up to 45kts will be possible at KCTB through 15/03z. Winds will decrease overnight but will pick back up again mid to late Wednesday morning. A Pacific whether system will bring in mountain snow Wednesday morning and light isolated showers at lower elevations. The isolated nature of the showers makes it difficult to pin point start times in the TAFs, as better chances arrive later Wednesday. -Wilson && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 59 41 59 29 / 0 0 40 90 CTB 53 33 54 22 / 0 10 20 60 HLN 61 37 59 28 / 0 10 80 90 BZN 61 35 59 28 / 10 10 60 100 WYS 47 27 45 27 / 20 10 90 100 DLN 57 35 57 28 / 0 0 50 100 HVR 64 38 62 28 / 0 0 20 80 LWT 60 36 58 28 / 10 10 60 90 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday evening through late Thursday night for Gallatin and Madison County Mountains and Centennial Mountains. High Wind Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon for Beaverhead and Western Madison below 6000ft- Madison River Valley. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls  209 FXUS61 KILN 141802 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 202 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... - Delayed any cold frontal passage until the weekend, with episodic precipitation chances until then. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening, primarily across west-central Ohio, with near record high temperatures possible. 2) Well above normal temperatures are expected through the rest of the week. Shower and thunderstorm chances continue. 3) Strong cold front moves through this weekend, bringing cooler temperatures Sunday and Monday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1) Broad mid-level ridging is in place today across the middle Ohio Valley with decaying showers and storms moving east across northern Indiana into northwest Ohio. A stationary front stretching from Iowa across southern Wisconsin into central lower Michigan will continue to keep the focus of precipitation to our north. Latest HRRR runs have dried up any convection across our area this afternoon... likely based on the downward trend of the decaying showers to our west. However, a remnant outflow boundary along the I-70 corridor will provide a non-zero risk of a damaging wind gust or two this afternoon as 1500 J/kg of CAPE develops. Main risk is generally from Dayton to Columbus. Mesoanalysis shows the eastern edge of an EML moving into our west- central Ohio counties this evening, with elevated showers and storms moving into this area after 8PM, perhaps as far south as Dayton. Effective bulk shear remains rather low (less than 25 knots) through the afternoon, with some increase to the 30-35 knot range after sunset when a modest southwesterly LLJ forms. If these showers and storms develop this evening, main risk would be locally heavy rain. Have collaborated with neighboring counties to the north and will hold off on issuing a Flood Watch at this time. Will need to monitor trends though through the afternoon. KEY MESSAGE 2) Will need to continue to watch for storms moving across the northern edge of the mid-level ridge on Wednesday. Similar to today, our hazardous weather threats depend on mesoscale evolution as disturbances shift east across our northern counties. May need to include an HWO mention of a severe storm or two and locally heavy rain. A more significant shortwave moves through the CWA Thursday afternoon and evening. This leads to an increase in PoPs. SPC has a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms with this disturbance. While low-level flow will be rather light, mid-level winds will bring 30-40 knots of shear will provide the chance of a damaging wind gust. KEY MESSAGE 3) Anomalous warmth will end as a strong cold front shifts east through the middle Ohio Valley late Saturday. CAA and gusty westerly winds are likely Sunday with low temperatures dipping into the 30s Sunday night as the surface high moves into our area. If these trends continue, frost may become a concern this night. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... There is relatively low confidence in the TAFs this update regarding the timing of thunderstorm chances over the next 24 hours. High resolution members of the HREF show a variety of solutions as various members develop linear clusters of storms at different times over different areas. Have leaned toward the HRRR with PROB30 groups during time periods with some modicum of consensus. Will be poised to amend as better detail becomes available. The main idea is for a chance of storms this evening as convection forming over Illinois this afternoon moves into the Ohio Valley. Beyond this, a few CAMs show potential clusters of storms later in the night and again Wednesday morning. Have decided to not include PROB30 groups for these later clusters due to uncertainty. Gusty winds this afternoon will ease a bit tonight with LLWS developing. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible at times through Thursday, then again Saturday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION... AVIATION...  283 FXUS64 KEPZ 141805 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1205 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1205 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Windy conditions again this afternoon, with some patchy blowing dust possible. - Breezy again Thursday into Friday with elevated to critical fire weather conditions. - The weekend will be cooler with a slight chance for rain on Sunday and Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1205 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Plenty of mid/high level moisture still streaming across the CWA with the sub-tropical jet. Main upper trough extending from SW Arizona through NW New Mexico will continue sweeping east and eventually clear the moisture/clouds late this evening. In the mean time, a moderate lee-side low will form over SE Colorado next few hours and help increase winds across our area this afternoon. Expect west winds of 15-25 mph with gusts to 40 mph. Blowing dust producing has been unreliable all season, but trajectories today would bring any dust into the El Paso metro area. As mentioned above, upper trough coming through tonight should clear the skies and usher in a period of dry west/southwest flow aloft into the weekend. Next upper low/trough just off the British Columbia coast will sweep across the northern and central Rockies Thursday and Friday. Very few in any clouds with this feature but it does produce decent lee-side troughs each day, creating breezy conditions Thu/Fri. This trough will eventually push a side door cool front through the area Saturday morning for a cooler weekend. Looking further out...a new Pacific low drops down off the NoCal coast Sunday, increasing southerly flow aloft. Lower level winds turn southeast, with the Gulf of America moisture seeping toward our area. As usual, models differ significantly on amount of moisture (dewpoint) moving up, with the GFS/CMC most bullish and ECMWF more bearish on pcpn. So slight chances of rain in the grids for Sun/Mon. The east push bringing the moisture in will also bring quite breezy east winds in on Sunday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions expected through the period. SCT150 BKN-OVC250 through about 03Z, then becoming SKC-SCT250 overnight. Surface winds west 18-23G35 knots through 01Z, diminishing to west/northwest AOB 8 knots through the late evening. Patchy 3-5SM BLDU possible between 20Z-23Z along southern counties bordering the International Border. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1205 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Elevated fire conditions again today as we see afternoon winds of west 15-25 mph with gusts to 40 mph, combined with min RHs in the 15-23% range. Remaining dry through at least Saturday, with breezy afternoons again Thu/Fri, and back to elevated to near-critical fire conditions with much lower humidity. Min RH: Lowlands 7-12% through Saturday, increasing to 18-28% Sunday and Monday. Mountains 8-18% through Saturday, increasing to 20-35% Sunday/Monday. Vent rates very-excellent through Friday, then fair-good Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 52 78 50 83 / 10 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 49 76 46 82 / 10 0 0 0 Las Cruces 43 75 44 80 / 10 0 0 0 Alamogordo 42 74 42 79 / 10 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 31 52 34 60 / 10 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 45 75 46 79 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 36 66 41 71 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 41 77 42 82 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 38 73 41 79 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 52 77 52 82 / 10 0 0 0 Dell City 47 79 41 83 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 52 83 48 88 / 10 0 0 0 Loma Linda 48 72 48 77 / 10 0 0 0 Fabens 51 80 48 86 / 10 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 46 76 45 82 / 10 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 50 77 51 82 / 10 0 0 0 Jornada Range 39 76 40 80 / 10 0 0 0 Hatch 40 79 39 83 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 47 79 45 84 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 44 74 41 80 / 10 0 0 0 Mayhill 37 66 37 73 / 10 0 0 0 Mescalero 34 63 36 71 / 10 0 0 0 Timberon 36 61 37 68 / 10 0 0 0 Winston 30 68 34 73 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 41 74 44 77 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 38 75 38 79 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 32 69 36 72 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 34 69 38 75 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 36 74 38 78 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 32 70 35 74 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 38 71 42 75 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 39 75 42 79 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 39 74 40 80 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 40 76 44 80 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 40 70 46 73 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...17-Hefner  256 FXUS63 KGID 141807 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 107 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Fire weather today: the overall-highest fire weather concerns will target our NE/KS counties along and south of the state line, where outright-critical conditions are likely due to the combination of stronger southwest winds gusting at least 25-35 MPH, and relative humidity falling to at least 15-20 percent. As a result, a Red Flag Warning has been issued from Noon until 9 PM for most of our counties along and south of the Nebraska-Kansas border. - Spotty thunderstorms this evening-tonight ("sneaky" severe?): Isolated to perhaps scattered thunderstorms will be possible almost anywhere in our forecast area. While the vast majority of this hit-or-miss activity should be fairly weak, a few storms could MAYBE become strong to marginally-severe, capable of producing hail up to around the size of quarters, and/or wind gusts up to around 60 MPH. However, the vast majority of potential severe weather this evening and overnight will surely focus slightly east of our forecast area altogether. - On the very edge of another severe storm risk Friday: Another chance for thunderstorms arrives Friday afternoon and evening for mainly the eastern half of our forecast area. It is still too early to determine whether any threat for severe storms might exist for our area, or instead concentrate slightly off to our south and east. - Strong north-northwest winds Friday into Friday night: Our entire forecast area will have strong north-northwest winds Friday into Friday night, with sustained speeds of at least 30 MPH and gusts of at least 40 MPH likely. - Almost daily fire weather concerns Thurs onward: Each afternoon between Thursday and Monday, at least near-critical fire weather conditions are forecast develop within at least parts of our forecast area. A few days could also see fire weather conditions reach critical levels, including already on Thursday. - Slightly sub-freezing temperatures possible this weekend: For those who already have concerns for freezing temperatures and impacts to gardening or irrigation systems, at least slightly sub-freezing temperatures appear possible Saturday morning, but are probably more likely Sunday morning. && .UPDATE... Issued at 520 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 -- FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE, BIG PICTURE COMMENTS, AND ANY ABBREVIATED LONGER-TERM FORECAST NOTES (for beyond Wednesday): - In the interest of time, really going to keep the focus here on these first 36 hours. For anything beyond that, the highlights are covered in KEY MESSAGES above. - That being said, one thing worth pointing out in the longer term is the CONSIDERABLE uncertainty that still exists for Friday's strong cold frontal passage timing, and the resultant impact on high temperatures, severe thunderstorm potential etc. At this time, the NAM/ECMWF are noticeably faster with this frontal passage than the GFS, which if the faster solution were to verify could render our currently-forecast high temps at least 10+ degrees too warm, and also more solidly shunt any severe storm risk in the afternoon- evening at least slightly south- through east of our CWA (SPC officially barely clips our southeast edges with their latest Day 4 "Slight Risk equivalent/15% area). - For all fire-weather related concerns (including today's Red Flag Warning), see separate Fire Weather section below for more details. -- FOCUS SOLELY ON THE SHORTER-TERM/NEXT 36 HOURS (through late Wed afternoon/early evening): - CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 4 AM/general comments: Although a rogue strong thunderstorm developed late yesterday afternoon/early evening in our far northern CWA (affecting mainly Greeley County), as expected we remained both well- southwest and well-northwest of the main rounds of severe storms in the greater region. We will likely remain very slightly west of the main threat areas over these next 24-36 hours, but close enough to at least modest elevated instability that a few "surprise" strong to even marginally-severe storms cannot be ruled out. Early this morning, all is quiet across the CWA, as we reside under almost entirely clear skies. In the mid-upper levels, water vapor satellite imagery and short term model data confirm continued broad southwesterly flow aloft, with the first of two primary/large-scale upper troughs of the week very slowly approaching from the Intermountain West/Rockies. At the surface, a weak but fairly well defined low pressure center (around 1002 millibars) resides over our KS zones. Due to the position of this low, a west-southwest to east-northeast oriented quasi- stationary front bisects our southern CWA, separating light-but steady northerly breezes to its north, from light and generally southerly breezes to its south. Low temps are on track to bottom out within a few degrees either side of 50 most areas (except closer to 60 far southeast around Mitchell County KS). - TODAY (through around 6-7 PM): Although we bring in some small chances (mainly 20-30%) for spotty showers/thunderstorms late this afternoon, odds strongly favor the vast majority of our CWA staying rain-free through at least 6-7 PM. Aloft, the main upper system will approach from the CO area, causing another surface low pressure center to take shape over mainly northwest KS by late in the day. The trickiest part of today's forecast really boils down to the exact position of the aforementioned quasi-stationary front, which is expected to remain very near the NE/KS border through much of the day, but perhaps TRY lifting north up toward Highway 6. To the north of the front, generally east-northeasterly breezes 10-20 MPH will prevail with high temperatures mainly in the 70s-low 80s, while south of the boundary, gusty southwest winds will develop (gusts easily 25-35 MPH especially in KS), allowing temps to soar into the mid-upper 80s and promoting resultant fire weather concerns. - THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT: As the night wears on, the main upper trough/mid level closed low will track closer, reaching the NE/KS/CO border area by sunrise Wednesday. At the surface, another low pressure center will track eastward through our southern CWA, reaching roughly the Hebron area by sunrise. As this low tracks through, it will keep that same generally west-east frontal boundary in place through much of the night, with northeasterly winds prevailing over most of our CWA to its north, and southerly breezes into at least the first part of the night in our far south, but even there eventually turning more northerly/northwesterly as the surface low tracks east. In terms of convective/rain potential, high-res models such as from HRRR/NAMNest clearly keep the main threat for any severe storms (especially surface-based ones) slightly east-through- southeast of our CWA..more within the main low-level instability axis and low-level jet axis. However, this forecaster is still a little concerned that we get see a rogue strong to marginally- severe storm or two overnight (likely of the elevated variety), as the increased lift from the approaching trough interacts with pockets of at least 500-1000 J/kg elevated CAPE (possibly upward of 1500 J/kg in our far southeast), in the presence of very strong deep-layer shear on the order of 60-70+KT. In theory, any spotty severe in our area would favor our extreme southeast fringes (where SPC did introduce a Marginal Risk/level 1), but feel that almost anywhere (even our west) could see a rogue, marginally-severe hail threat as lift impinges upon the elevated instability. All that being said, the actual COVERAGE of storms in our CWA this evening-overnight will be isolated-to-scattered at best, and thus kept PoPs fairly modest. Low temps tonight are aimed fairly similar to this morning...most places upper 40s-low 50s. - WEDNESDAY DAYTIME: Over the course of the day, the main upper low/trough axis tracks directly through the heart of our CWA/general region from west-to-east, reaching the IA/NE border area by sunset. As the associated surface low tracks east in tandem, our breezes will turn more west-northwesterly at generally 10-15 MPH with some higher gusts. Precip/storm-wise, "in theory" we do not have a severe threat, and the coverage of any showers/storms should again be isolates/scattered at best. HOWEVER, pockets of lingering instability to at least 500 J/kg, aided by cooling aloft from the deep trough passing overhead, have been known to produce "surprise" marginally-severe storms with perhaps a hail threat or even a random funnel cloud (probably not reaching the ground) in these kind of setups around here, so that probably cannot be totally ruled out. Kept modest PoPs going across much of our CWA, but overall-highest chances currently appear to focus/near north of I-80. Any lingering activity should depart our far eastern counties by 5-7 PM. In other departments, high temps were nudged down slightly...most places aimed between 71-75 degrees. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1221 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A discussion on fire-weather-specific information can be found in the Fire section below. Surface low pressure located near Kearney at mid day will gradually develop northeast toward Albion through this afternoon. Warm and dry air will overspread the entire area this afternoon. One thing to watch this afternoon will be a low-end potential for isolated convection to develop in the wraparound moisture on the west side of the surface low. We most likely should stay precipitation free, but there's about a 10% chance for development in far northern counties of the forecast area around 5 PM, and a better chance farther north. As we get into the overnight hours and the low pressure moves off to the northeast, cooler and moisture air will push south into many of our Nebraska counties while new low pressure develops in northwest KS. This front will likely stall in the vicinity of the KS/NE border and hang out in that area on Tuesday. Expect a good pool of low level moisture immediately on the cool side of the front while areas to the south remain warm and in a dry airmass. While a ribbon of instability is likely to develop near/north of the front, there will be a very strong cap in place and surface based storms are not expected. As we get a bit deeper into the evening, there is some potential for increased convergence along and just north of the boundary to provide a semi-favorable environment for breaking the cap, but would require significant moisture transport and pooling through a pretty good depth and into the warm layer aloft. As of now, forecast soundings are not favorable for thunderstorm development, and if it does happen would stand a better chance with eastward extent. Farther north, closer to the core of a short wave trough with weaker cap and stronger forcing, there is a better chance for showers or a few thunderstorms to develop and skirt across our northern counties, but truthfully that precip potential is greater farther to the north. A few wraparound showers could linger into Wednesday, depending on how quickly the system moves off to the east. Overall, this system does not look particularly rainy for south central NE or north central KS. After a period of mid level ridging on Thursday, there is good model agreement with high probability for a strong storm system tracking from Colorado across KS/NE late Friday into Saturday. This has the look (and the temperature profile) of a classic spring system with thunderstorms ahead of the low, snow on the northwest quadrant, and plenty of wind for everyone. Any severe storm potential will be highly dependent upon timing of the storm system, and current indications suggest a higher likelihood of severe storms east of the local forecast area, so we'll be watching potential for the system to slow down and pull better moisture back to the west. The snow potential will also be highly dependent upon the storm track, and right now the greatest potential appears to be north of the local forecast area. Where it does snow, it will be accompanied by strong winds, and so this too is worth very closely monitoring as it could make for hazardous travel conditions Friday night into Saturday morning. After this system, should see a period of slightly cooler conditions with calmer weather overall...at least into the first couple days of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1254 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: The wind for the most part should remain out of the northeast at KEAR and KGRI through the evening with the strongest winds this afternoon. Eventually the wind will become northerly late tonight into Wednesday morning as a surface low tracks south of the area. Eventually we expect breezy northwesterly winds by Wednesday afternoon after the low pressure system passes by. The primary aviation concern is the chance for showers and thunderstorms mainly tonight into Wednesday morning with the most likely time frame being late Wednesday morning through around the noon hour as the surface low passes through. Will continue with the VFR conditions for now, but can not rule out periods of MVFR ceilings Wednesday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 520 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING: Unlike yesterday's more widespread critical fire weather conditions that affected most of our CWA, today's main threat area will be more focused near and especially south of the NE/KS border...to the south of a relatively sharp, west- southwest to east- northeast oriented quasi-stationary front. South of this front, a hot/deeply mixed airmass will exist with temps at least mid-upper 80s and southwest winds gusting at least 25-35 MPH (40 MPH probably cannot be ruled out, especially in KS). Given these winds and relative humidity (RH) expected to crash down between 15-20%, critical fire weather conditions are likely to develop. As a result, the previous Fire Weather Watch was "upgraded" to a Red Flag Warning for our 6 KS counties, and we also tacked on most of our adjacent Nebraska counties along the state line. At least near-critical conditions with slightly higher RH/slightly lighter winds will probably extend another 1-2 counties north of the Warning (at least getting into some of our Highway 6 counties in Nebraska). - THURSDAY: Following somewhat of a break in fire weather concerns on Wednesday due to slightly cooler temps/lighter winds, concerns return in earnest already Thursday afternoon-early evening as high temperatures again jump into at least the low-mid 80s in the presence of southerly winds sustained around 20 MPH/gusting at least 25 MPH (probably higher). Relative humidity is currently forecast to fall to as low as 10-20% for most of our CWA, making this a decent candidate for our next Warning day...particularly in the western half of our area. FRIDAY-MONDAY: Despite cooler temperatures than the last few days and those on Thursday, each of these days will likely feature at least limited coverage of near- critical conditions, with pockets of outright- critical possible. More details will be provided as these days get closer in time. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ083>087. KS...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005>007- 017>019. && $$ UPDATE...Pfannkuch DISCUSSION... AVIATION...Wesely FIRE WEATHER...Pfannkuch  176 FXUS64 KAMA 141808 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 108 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1213 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Elevated fire weather conditions expected Wednesday with very low RH values in the 5 to 10 percent range. Critical fire weather conditions return Thu and Fri as winds ramp back up. - There is a low chance for a severe storm to develop in the southeast Texas Panhandle this late afternoon evening. - Severe storm chances remain in the far southeastern to eastern Panhandles today and again Friday, depending on the position of a dryline. -Cooler, near normal temperatures are expected over the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 1213 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Current GOES water vapor imagery shows a closed mid to upper level low pressure system over UT near the Four Corners Region. A stream of mid to upper level moisture can also be seen on satellite traveling up into FA from the southwest on the leading edge of the associated trough. As of this writing the far northwest corner of the combined Panhandles is the area that does not have moisture shown on water vapor. It is this system that is helping to increase the winds today as the leading edge of the trough is producing higher winds aloft. The EC and GFS both suggest 60kts at H5 overhead currently. Though wind gusts are expected to hold short of 50 kts at the surface, the northwest clear of any cloud cover this afternoon may see gusts up to 43 kts, or 50 mph. Also, depending on where a dryline positions may introduce some 20 to 30 PoPs for the SE TX Panhandle. Current thoughts are some storms may PoP in the SE TX Panhandle, with the potential for them becoming severe will be higher to the east and southeast of the Panhandles as the dryline mix east. With the upper level moisture some models suggest showery type activity further west, maybe as far as Amarillo. However, at the surface it will remain dry leading to only virga. The best timing for this is looking to be after sunset but before midnight. Tomorrow, when this trough comes across the Southern Great Plains and the leading edge winds exit off to the east, so will the associated surface low winds. This will decrease the winds, however, it will also introduce much drier air with Tds expected to drop into the teens. The trough may also introduce some very slightly cooler temperatures with highs around 4 to 5 degrees cooler. With the lower Tds though, RH values are expected to be much lower around 8 percent. At a minimum elevated fire weather conditions are expected for Wed afternoon. Depending on how the winds perform, there may still be some spotty critical conditions for a short time in the afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 1213 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Temporary ridging returns for Thu and Fri with increasing winds and afternoon temperatures returning to the 80s. At the surface dry air continues for the majority of the combined Panhandles with maybe the far eastern Panhandles finding themselves on the moist side of the dryline. The dry air and increasing surface winds are expected to provide critical fire weather conditions west of the dryline. East of the dryline may see conditions favorable for thunderstorms with the potential for some severe storms. This will mainly be on Friday when the dryline is expected to retreat back into the eastern Panhandles. Thu, this dryline should be mixed well enough east that even the eastern Panhandles are expected to see RH values as low as 7 percent. Friday should have the highest winds of the two days as another upper level trough digs down the Intermountain West and approaches the area. Winds on the leading edge of the H5 trough are progged to be 50 to 70 kts inducing a fairly potent leeside low in eastern CO/western KS. Gradient surface winds may be upwards of 30 mph sustained from this system. Friday night, this leeside low ejects off to the east/northeast and a fairly potent cold front is expected fill in behind it. Timing of this cold front is in question. If it can come in sooner, it could potentially shut down critical fire weather. If not it will pose a problem for any holdover fires with a drastic northerly winds shift. Even the north winds just behind the front at looking to be 20 mph gusting 30 mph, maybe even higher. As far as the potential for storms in the eastern Panhandles ahead of the front, current model guidance suggest that the dryline could be mixed well east of the Panhandles eliminating any chances for storms. Will have to evaluate further over the next couple of days. Post front, Sat and Sun are looking to have much cooler temps. Instead of highs in the 80s, highs are progged to be near normal on Sat in the 60s and only gradually warmer Sun in the 70s. Critical fire weather conditions may return Sun in the northwest as winds return to the southwest and pick back up. Saturday through Monday, conditions are progged to remain dry, free from any significant rainfall. Temperatures are only expected to be a couple degrees warmer on Monday compared to Sunday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period with breezy and gusty southwest winds. Gust may exceed 30 kts but should remain less than 40 kts. Winds are not expected to drop off until after 00Z with winds potentially falling below 10 kts after 06Z Wednesday. High clouds are expected to continue with a slight chance for some virga in the area around KAMA and KGUY now through 03Z Wed. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1213 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Winds are expected to drop off for tomorrow. However, southwest to west winds will help bring in lower Tds. Temperatures are expected to be a few degrees cooler tomorrow, however with such low Tds moving in min RH is expected to bottom out near 7 percent for Wed leading to elevated fire weather conditions at a minimum. Winds should stay low enough to not need a Red Flag Warning for Wed. Winds do pick back up for Thu increasing the chances for critical fire weather conditions as RH values see a poor recovery Wed night and drop back to the 5-10 percent range on Thu afternoon. Fuels are expected to degraded and become even more volatile with so many dry and windy days this week. Thu night a dryline may retreat into the southeast combined Panhandles making RH recoveries better a portion of the eastern Panhandles. Areas west of this dryline feature may only see RH recover to the 30-40% range. An approaching system Friday will introduce even higher southwest to west winds around 30 mph sustained with gusts potentially up to 50 mph. RH values are looking to once again drop into the 8 to 12 percent range Friday afternoon after a dryline mixes east out of the area. This system approaching Fri is expected to also bring a fairly robust cold front with 20 to 30 mph sustained winds just behind the front Friday night. The front has been expected to show up later in the day Friday, however, there are some models that suggest it could show up early and even be through Amarillo by noon. Will have to watch and see, cause humidity will recover quite a bit behind the front and limit overall fire weather conditions despite having some strong winds. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>020-317. Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001-002-006-007- 011-012-016-017-317. OK...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001>003. Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001-002. && $$ SHORT TERM...03 LONG TERM....03 AVIATION...03  340 FXUS63 KGRB 141810 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 110 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a risk for severe weather south of a Wisconsin Rapids to Sturgeon Bay line this afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds are the main hazards. There is also an isolated tornado threat south of HWY 10. - Thunderstorms will lead to localized heavy rainfall, greater than 1", this afternoon and evening across central and east- central WI. This will lead to additional flood concerns through tonight. - Minor to moderate river flooding is ongoing or forecast to occur on several area rivers. Expect many rivers to rise this week due to additional rain and runoff from Upper Michigan, with the greatest impacts expected on the Menominee River, where some locations may see major flooding during the mid to late part of the week. - Additional rounds of rain and thunderstorms are expected at times Wednesday through this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 310 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 This morning... Stratiform rain will come to an end from west to east early this morning as a LLJ shifts east. Dry conditions will then prevail through the rest of the morning. Behind the rain areas of fog are expected to develop across much of the region with the lowest visibilities, under 1/2 mile, across northern WI. Severe storm potential late this afternoon/evening... Last nights MCS has layed-out out an outflow boundary along the WI/IL border early this morning. Persistent southwest flow south of the boundary will help lift this boundary north as an effect warm front through the morning and afternoon. CAMs generally show the boundary stalling along HWY 21 this afternoon with SBCAPES increasing to ~2000 J/kg south of boundary. This will provide the focus for convective initiation this afternoon, around 3-5PM. With cloud layer winds out of the southwest storms will cross over to the cool side of the boundary as they move into Fox Vally and east-central WI. This along with straight and elongated hodographs will lead to a large hail (1-2") threat. A damaging wind threat (gusts up to 60 mph) will also be possible this evening if storms grow upscale. Tornado threat will primarily be focused across southern WI where low-level lapse rates will be steeper beneath an eroding EML, however, any storms that can latch onto the boundary and take advantage of the increased low-leve shear may pose a tornado threat, greatest chance would be south of HWY 10. The greatest uncertainty with the severe threat is the positions of the effective warm front, as a shift further north or south would change the areas of focus for severe storms. Convection will also result in localized heavy rainfall. HREF probs show pockets of 50-70% chances for over 1" of rain across the central and east-central WI. With on-going flooding and saturated soils this will exacerbate both aerial and river flooding concerns. Rain and thunderstorms Wednesday-Monday... A surface low is forecast to lift into the western Great Lakes Wednesday bringing another round of rain and possible thunderstorms. There is uncertainty with how much instability will be able to recover from Tuesday evenings convection. Latest CAMs and ML/AI guidance shunts most of the instability south of the CWA. This would limit the severe threat, however, there is a 25-30% chance for another .5" of rain which would cause any ongoing flood concerns to continue. A more dynamic trough is slated to impact the region late Friday into the weekend bringing additional widespread rainfall and storms. The northward extent of greater instability is somewhat uncertain with this system, impacting severe weather potential, but this will be something to watch in the coming days. Drier and cooler weather is expected behind this system for early next week. && .AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance Issued at 109 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A mix of MVFR and IFR cigs prevailed across the region early this afternoon, with the exception of LIFR cigs and 1/4 mile vsbys at MTW. These conditions are expected to continue until around 00z Wed. Low stratus with LIFR cigs with fog of 1/2 mile or as low as 1/4 mile will then expand across the area after 00z Wed reaching all terminals. Anticipate these conditions to continue through early Wednesday morning before gradually improving by the afternoon. Additionally, the next chances for showers and thunderstorms arrives around 23z at the central and east-central WI TAF sites. Confidence is highest for thunderstorms at the east-central WI TAF sites between 23z Tue and 02z Wed, which are expressed with TEMPO groups. A brief period of LLWS is also anticipated at the east- central WI TAF sites during this time as well. Lower confidence for showers and thunderstorms at the central WI TAF sites, so used PROB30 groups. Some of the strongest storms could produce large hail and damaging wind gusts. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 310 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 MRMS QPE from the last 24-hours shows a maximum of 4.5-5.5 inches of rainfall along an axis from Stevens Point to Bonduel with a more broad swath of 1-3" south of HWY 8. The result has been rapidly rising rivers and streams along with on-going flash flooding. An additional 0.5-1" of rain is expected across this area today which will only exacerbate flooding concerns. Runoff from snow melt in Upper Michigan is also still expected to bring moderate to possibly major flooding on the Menominee River, especially during the mid to late part of the week. If you live near a river or stream, keep a close eye on water levels this week and monitor the latest Flood Warnings from the National Weather Service in Green Bay. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for WIZ022-035>040-045- 048>050. && $$ DISCUSSION.....GK AVIATION.......Kruk HYDROLOGY......GK  161 FXUS63 KLSX 141810 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 110 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and humid conditions continue through most of this week. The best chances for thunderstorms, some potentially severe, are tonight and Wednesday. - A strong cold front brings seasonably cool temperatures for the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Wednesday Afternoon) Issued at 256 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The overall weather pattern across the US consists of surface high pressure near the southeast US coastline with a rich plume of Gulf moisture (60+ dewpoints) circulating around this high from central Texas northeast to the Chicago area. The western edge of this moisture plume is bounded by a dryline, oscillating back and forth each day with daytime heating and the passage of shortwave troughs aloft. The northern extent is bounded by a quasi-stationary front/trough stretching from Nebraska to Michigan. Looking aloft, upper level ridging is centered over the Gulf with a trough over the Southwest US moving from around Las Vegas to the Four Corners during the day today. Between the Gulf ridge and the Southwest US trough exists a southwesterly jet with embedded shortwave troughs. The rich low level moisture on the edge of the upper level ridge has led to an axis of instability within which multiple patches of thunderstorms will continue to generate over the coming days. Seasonably strong mid level flow combines with the instability to produce conditions favorable for supercell thunderstorms and occasional convective clusters where thunderstorms form. Zooming in on our forecast area, although instability maximizes this afternoon with daytime heating (temperatures nearing 90!), the influence of the ridge aloft is expected to maintain capping through much of the day, inhibiting convective development. We'll be in between disturbances to our northeast and southwest leading to a local minimum in convective potential. The primary focus for development will be more toward the periphery of the ridge and along the surface boundaries: the warm/stationary front to the north and the dryline to the west. High resolution guidance is in good agreement that convection will be suppressed locally during the day today. That said, if we are able to get any local areas of lift along a local convergence zone or in an area of locally maximized low level moisture (reducing capping), then a storm or two could develop. The environment is primed for supercell thunderstorms if this occurs, with large hail and damaging winds the main threats. The better chance for thunderstorms locally will be from leftover storms which formed to our west tracking into our area during the late evening or overnight hours. While wind shear will still be sufficient for organized thunderstorms, surface based instability will be on a downward diurnal trend by the time any such activity reaches our area, limiting the severe weather potential. On Wednesday the southwest trough opens up and lifts northeast through the Plains. This leads to greater mid level lift supporting more widespread showers and thunderstorms across the instability axis including through our region. While we continue to see moderate to strong mid level flow sufficient for storm organization, more widespread cloud cover is expected to limit the development of surface based instability to just patches of stronger instability where cloud cover is less extensive. As a result, our confidence in the timing and location of the severe weather threat on Wednesday is lower, though the threat is likely to favor the afternoon hours when the potential for surface based instability is greatest during the heat of the day. We may not have greater clarity on these points until Wednesday morning when the effects of morning clouds and showers can be a bit better known. Kimble && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night through Monday) Issued at 256 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The passage of the trough Wednesday into Wednesday night will also shove the front southeastward, pulling in some slightly drier air and shifting the instability axis southeastward. Showers and storms may still be ongoing Thursday morning, with the focus for convective activity shifting toward the Ohio Valley with time. Most of our area sees gradually clearing skies with continued warm temperatures near 80 degrees. While ridging briefly builds back in behind Wednesday's departing trough, a stronger trough will be moving out of the Pacific Northwest and into the Plains on Friday. We'll see moisture return northward ahead of this approaching trough setting up the potential for another round of severe thunderstorms. Where that severe weather threat materializes depends on the speed of the front. At the moment, timing of the front favors a greater severe thunderstorm threat to our west as the front moves through our area mostly during the overnight Friday night into the first half of the day on Saturday. However, if the front speeds up a bit, this could shift the threat more into our area. Alternatively, if it slows down a bit, then another threat could develop during peak heating on Saturday. At this stage it's too soon to have much confidence in a severe weather threat locally given the current expected frontal timing, but it's a time period to watch for any changes that could shift the threat into our area. The air mass behind this front is MUCH cooler than what we've been dealing with as of late. This air mass has origins in the Arctic which is still cold this time of year. There remains some uncertainty in how cold it will be by the time it reaches our area, but there is strong confidence that we'll see at least one day of below normal temperatures. NBM interquartile range for high temperatures on Sunday is around 10 degrees, with the warmer end of that range right around normal for mid April while the cooler end is several degrees below normal. Dewpoints also drop into the 20s suggesting that if we were to get a clear, calm night that temperatures could approach levels where a frost or freeze could develop. At this time, NBM probability of 32 degrees or colder is only 5 to 15 percent across the region as the likelihood of seeing the clear, calm conditions necessary to realize this air mass's full potential is low. We will begin to warm back up again early next week as amplified ridging rather quickly replaces this weekend's trough. Kimble && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon) Issued at 109 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A low chance (20%) for an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm exists for the area this afternoon/evening, but was not mentioned in the TAF because of the lower confidence of occurrence. Even though the chance is low, it is important to note, that if an isolated thunderstorm is able to form this afternoon/evening and directly impact a local terminal, IFR/below airport minimum visibilities along with damaging winds and hail would be possible. Confidence is higher in a remnant system of thunderstorms moving eastward out of KS/OK later this evening, potentially impacting local terminals by the late evening/overnight timeframe. If stronger thunderstorms persist with this system and directly impact a terminal, IFR/below airport minimum visibilities along with damaging winds and hail are certainly possible. Confidence is once again lower in conditions beyond the early morning with potential for some remaining showers/convection beyond what is indicated by the current TAF. Otherwise, gusty (20-30kts) southerly winds continue into early tonight before slackening off tomorrow morning, possibly gusting again by tomorrow afternoon. Peine && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX  349 FXUS65 KBOU 141810 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1210 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Snow expected Tuesday for the high mountains, with a good chance of light rain showers over the rest of the CWA into Tuesday evening. - Critical fire weather conditions for southern lincoln county this afternoon. - Widespread critical fire weather conditions over the plains Thursday afternoon. - Next system moves in Thursday night into Saturday morning with the promise of measurable precipitation for all the forecast area. Perhaps cold enough for snow on the plains. && .DISCUSSION /Through Monday/... Issued at 1159 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Current satellite pictures show the upper closed low centered over the northwestern corner of Arizona at this hour. Currently, there is decent convection over western Colorado, with even a few lightning strikes over the Four Corners. A cold front has pushed westward across all the plains this evening and is currently moving up into the foothills with north and northeasterly winds behind it. However, temperatures across the plains are still in the 50s this late evening. The upper trough is progged to move northeastward slowly across Colorado Tuesday into Wednesday morning. The best synoptic scale energy moves across our CWA from 18Z to about 03Z late Tuesday. The instability is weak according to the soundings. The best QPF with the system starts late Tuesday morning in the mountains and goes into early evening. Snowfall amounts above 9,500 feet could get close to 10 inches total in a couple spots from now through Tuesday evening, but the majority of the higher mountains would only see 3-6 inches. It doesn't warrant any highlights. Over the plains, the system should bring 40-60% chances of rain showers from 18Z to 06Z. The northern border plains could see 0.25 of rain from it at best, with less over the rest of the low lands. Will end the pops over the plains before sunrise Wednesday morning. However, a few alpine showers may linger into Wednesday morning. Temperatures should only reach the 60s for highs over the plains today, warmest over the far eastern border. There is weak upper ridging over the CWA Wednesday with a dry airmass in place and temperatures still in the 60s over most of the plains. Increasing southwesterly flow is expected Thursday with a dry airmass and temperatures warming well into the 70s over the plains. This will increase fire weather conditions significantly by afternoon. The southwesterly flow aloft continues Thursday night well into Friday, with the next upper trough pushing across Colorado Friday afternoon through Friday night. Models still show this system to be stronger with colder air available as well as more moisture and measurable precipitation for all of the CWA Friday and Friday night. Temperatures are warming a tad from previous models, but snow is not out of the question for most areas. We can only hope for some much needed measurable precipitation. For the later days, Saturday through Tuesday, models show west- northwesterly flow aloft behind the exiting trough on Saturday, then upper ridging moves in from Saturday night and continues in place through Monday. Southwesterly flow aloft moves in later Monday through Tuesday as the next upper trough approaches from the west. There may be lingering light showers over the mountains on Saturday, but overall the 4 day period looks pretty dry with temperatures warming up to above seasonal normals, once again, Sunday through Tuesday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday/... Issued at 1210 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Virga showers have been passing over/near all three TAF sites this morning. The chance for virga showers continues through this afternoon. These showers could cause gusty winds at all three sites- gusts could reach 20 to 25 kts with any of these outflows, mainly favoring a southerly component. As the afternoon progress, the lower atmosphere will start to moisten up as noted in model soundings leading to a chance for showers/precipitation reaching the ground. Have added in TEMPO and PROB30 groups from around 21z to 06z tonight to account for this possibility. There is a low chance (approximately 10%) for a thunderstorm, but CAPE values are expected to be low. Gusty winds between 20 and 30 kts will remain possible this afternoon. These shower chances will also bring the potential for lowering ceilings to near 6000 feet AGL, especially this evening. Overnight, winds will become VRB before eventually become W to NW by tomorrow morning. A drainage component is possible, especially at KAPA. Cloud ceilings will rise as the night progresses with no ceiling issues expected after around 08z. Winds by tomorrow afternoon should be between 10 to 15 kts starting around 18z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1139 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 In spite of the cooler and more moist airmass expected over the forecast area on Tuesday, southern Lincoln County, Zone 247, still looks to have critical fire weather conditions in place for a few hours during the afternoon hours due to humidity levels dropping into the 12-17 percent range and winds gusting as high as 40 mph. Fuels remain extremely dry in these areas. Looking ahead, critical fire weather conditions look widespread across all the plains Thursday afternoon. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ247. && $$ DISCUSSION...66 AVIATION...MV FIRE WEATHER...66  099 FXUS63 KJKL 141812 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 212 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures should average 15 or more degrees above normal through the end of the week. Record or near record high temperatures are forecast Wednesday, Friday, and Saturday. - A passing disturbance could result in isolated showers or a stray storm through early this evening across northern and eastern portions of the area. - Additional showers/storms are forecast Thursday and Thursday night with a passing disturbance, with potentially greater chances this weekend with a cold front. && .UPDATE... Issued at 155 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2026 Hourly grids, mainly temperatures, dewpoints, and winds, were freshened up based on recent observations and trends. A few showers were moving across the southeastern portions of the area at this time. Some of the convective allowing models have redevelopment of showers with perhaps a storm for northeastern and eastern sections of the area during the afternoon to early evening. The previous pops had this scenario covered so no changes to pops were made at this time. UPDATE Issued at 648 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2026 Minor updates were made to Sky grids and hourly temperatures in the very near term. Otherwise, there are no significant changes to the forecast. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 301 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2026 An active jet stream and storm track resides from northwestern Mexico northeast through the Midwest into the Great Lakes region through the period, with strong ridging through all layers of the atmosphere centered over the far southeastern CONUS and adjacent western Atlantic waters. Models depict an increase in moisture and instability impinging on northern and western counties early this morning and lasting into afternoon. This appears to be due to a passing disturbance crossing the southern Great Lakes region increasing the low-level jet across central and northeastern Kentucky, but the GFS does indicate a theta- e gradient extending from the Lower Tennessee Valley northeast into southwestern and central Ohio through 12z-15z this morning. While the vast majority of models keep eastern Kentucky dry, the GFS in particular does indicate a bit of isentropic lift along this boundary this morning which could result in shower activity forming upstream as early as this morning and then moving into the area later this morning into early afternoon. Will thus carry low PoPs across primarily western and northern areas through the afternoon today. It does bear mentioning that as of 07z this morning cloud tops are currently cooling where the GFS progs the weak isentropic lift to be currently. Models depict another theta-e gradient moving from central Tennessee north into central Kentucky this evening into the overnight. This will be the leading edge of a drier low-level air mass, and models suggest isentropic descent along this boundary, at least for the evening period, indicating subsidence. Will thus expect increased ridge-valley splits and clearer skies compared to this morning. For Wednesday, a passing disturbance well north and west of eastern Kentucky will push increasing warm advection and southwesterly flow across the area, with weak isentropic upglide again likely serving as a trigger for any showers and thunderstorms during the day Wednesday. However, these appear to stay northwest of our area, so will keep the forecast dry but with highest PoPs north of Interstate 64. Will thus expect another very warm day in the 80s across the forecast area, with a few 90-degree readings possible in the Big Sandy Basin where a southerly component to the low-level flow will promote some increased downslope warming. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 304 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2026 An amplified long wave pattern continues through early next week. A strong and persistent ridge will remain planted from central Mexico to Florida through early this weekend. This feature will then pivot more southeast by early next week, as an onslaught of eastern Pacific energy throughout this week finally dislodges it. Model agreement is decent early on, but then becomes less, with greater differences showing up by this weekend and into early next week. Eastern Kentucky will continue to find itself under the influence of the strong ridging to our southeast through Saturday. Well above normal temperatures, nearing record status at times, will remain in place. Highs each day will average in the mid to upper 80s, with a few low 90s possible, especially Wednesday and Friday/Saturday. Lows will average in the 50s and 60s each night. The next decent chance of rain will move in Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, as a well-defined short wave trough tracks east from the middle Mississippi Valley through the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. PoPs will peak in the 40-60% range. Unfortunately, QPF continues to look lean, with most locations likely seeing a tenth of an inch or less, although any thunderstorms could locally overachieve. A much deeper trough will move from the Plains to the eastern CONUS this weekend into early next week, with a surface cold front finally making it across the Commonwealth. QPF could be more substantial and beneficial with this system; however, will await further model trends before getting too optimistic. PoPs peak in the 50-60% range Saturday night, with some chances extending into Sunday, depending on the timing. This cold front will also bring an end to the heatwave, with highs retreating to mainly the 60s for both Sunday and Monday. Some frost potential may follow for Sunday night and perhaps Monday night in the valleys, depending on model trends. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2026 VFR conditions prevailed at TAF issuance and should prevail through the period. The region will remain in the warm sector between a sfc ridge of high pressure extending from the Southeast to the western Atlantic and a frontal zone from New England across the Great Lakes and into the Plains. Meanwhile, upper level ridging should remain from the eastern Gulf into the southeast and parts of the Atlantic while the axis of an upper trough moves into the Central Conus. A passing disturbance could bring a shower or stray storm with brief sub VFR conditions during the first few hours of the period to KSYM, KIOB, KJKL, and KSJS. Otherwise, in between the sfc systems, south to southwest winds should average between 5 and 15KT with some gusts to around 20KT for the first few hours of the period. Low and mid level clouds are expected to decrease this evening while winds should also diminish around 00Z with the loss of daytime heating. South to southwest winds should pick up again into the 5 to 12KT range from around 14Z to the end of the period as the nocturnal inversion mixes out. A few gusts to around 20KT are also possible. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...CMC LONG TERM...JKL AVIATION...JP  365 FXUS63 KEAX 141813 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO Issued by National Weather Service Paducah KY 113 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Active weather pattern continues with multiple chances for strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon, tomorrow and again Friday night. * Warm temperatures (upper 70s to low/mid 80s) are expected to persist through the work week, with cooler and drier conditions expected this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 113 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Residual cloud cover has mostly mixed out this afternoon with strong surface heating sending temperatures into the low to mid 80s. Strong/deep mixing is starting and dewpoints are starting to drop at Topeka and into east central Kansas. This for now is leading to a fairly diffuse dryline and poor low level convergence. Although high clouds streaming in over Kansas and Oklahoma show at least some signal for an increase in modest large scale ascent in a few hours. ACARS soundings show a modest inversion and modified RAP soundings with ACARS input show a convective temp around 85 to 87 F. Most high resolution guidance sets the strongest part of the dryline up from about Ottawa, KS to St. Joseph, MO by 3 to 5 pm but it looks too diffuse to be a slam-dunk zone for convective initiation. Most CAM guidance initiates convection along the leading edge of an upper level ripple (likely shown by the high clouds in KS/OK) in southeast Kansas by 4 to 5 pm and sends it northeastward into the forecast area in the late afternoon and evening - and that appears to be the most likely scenario. By that time T/Td spreads will be about 25 to 30 degrees with lower level flow at 20 to 30 kts out of the southwest. CAM guidance (again probably reasonably) favors multi-cell clusters that try to organized into a few isolated bowing segments as they move northeastward. This would pose a threat for damaging wind with deeper cores producing a large hail threat given the fairly steep mid level lapse rates and available deep layer shear. Hodographs are favorable enough for some tornado threat, particularly if any cells maintain discrete elements. Rain chances then look to decrease through the overnight. Wednesday the shortwave trough axis currently over the Rockies pushes through the region and sends the cold front currently lagging back over the high Plains towards the area. This looks to create much better shower/storm coverage, as well as sparking things off earlier in the day, with showers and storms becoming more likely by early to mid afternoon. Some severe threat (wind/hail) looks to accompany this activity as well. Although instability/diurnal heating will be more limited by cloud cover and the time of day which may mitigate the threat. The cold front clears the area Wednesday night but we get back into return flow almost immediately on Thursday with dewpoints reloading into the mid 60s. Light low level warm air advection may spark a shower or two in this period but the main focus will be on Friday night into Saturday. A strong/sharp shortwave trough interacts with the exit region of a 120kt or so southwesterly jet maxima moving out of the southern Plains, creating strong ascent and spinning up a 991mb or so surface low in the lee of the Rockies that quickly moves northeastward into the western Great Lakes. There appears to be yet another severe weather threat with this period (SPC maintains a 30% Day 4 risk). Convective mode may be messy however due to strong large scale ascent and low-level kinematics. What does appear likely to be in place is strong deep layer and low-level shear (850 mb winds 50-55kts) with sufficient instability. This period will need to continue to be monitored for the potential for all-modes of severe weather before a strong cold front finally sends the region back to a cooler and more stable pattern through most of the rest of the forecast period. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1205 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Residual scattered cloud deck at 2500-3000 ft should mix out in the next hour or so. VFR conditions are then expected until an area of showers and thunderstorms moves in from the southwest in the late afternoon/early evening. IFR visibility and strong gusty winds (40-50 kt) can be expected with any storms that impact airfields. Light rain showers likely persist behind any thunderstorms amid prevailing VFR conditions. VFR conditions are expected through tomorrow until showers and thunderstorms redevelop in the early to late afternoon, after the end of the current TAF period. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JGG AVIATION...JGG  397 FXUS62 KTBW 141813 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 213 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Critical RH values across the region the next few days. - Above average temperatures continue through the week. - Moderate to extreme drought conditions continue. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 206 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The story through the week will be the dry and hot weather. This is all thanks to a strong ridging across much of the southeast that will remain till Sunday. Each day high temperatures will increase by a few degrees topping out in the low to mid 90's on the weekend. A weak cold front is expected to push through on Monday. Sadly we not expecting much rain with the system with only about a 10 or 20 percent chance. However it should help to bring temperatures back down near average by next Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 206 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions through the period with winds out of an easterly direction. && .MARINE... Issued at 206 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Strong ridging over the area will keep our winds out of an easterly direction through Saturday. Winds will be little higher today and tomorrow around 10 to 15 knots. These winds will calm down for Thursday through Saturday and sit around 5 to 10 knots. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 206 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Strong ridging is bringing drier air across much of the southeast. We will see RH get down to around critical levels for on inland locations during the afternoon from Wednesday through Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 88 65 86 65 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 89 63 87 63 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 87 61 87 62 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 86 63 85 63 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 89 56 88 56 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 88 70 87 70 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley DECISION SUPPORT...Flannery UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Flannery  963 FXUS62 KGSP 141814 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 214 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes to forecast trends over the next several days. Key messages were reordered simply to better explain our thinking. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Hot and dry through Saturday with high temperatures near daily records. A cold front may bring some rainfall to our area on Sunday, but any accumulation is likely to be too small to improve drought conditions. Near-normal temperatures expected early next week. 2. Fire weather concerns continue amid a dry and stagnant weather pattern. A Fire Danger Statement is in effect through 8 PM Tue for the North Carolina Piedmont and northeast Georgia. Critically low relative humidity is likely to occur each of the next several afternoons. && .DISCUSSION... Key message 1: Hot and dry through Saturday with high temperatures near daily records. A cold front may bring some rainfall to our area on Sunday, but any accumulation is likely to be too small to improve drought conditions. Near-normal temperatures expected early next week. Anomalously deep ridge will remain centered over the coastal Southeast thru Thursday, with Bermuda High extending inland at the surface. 500mb heights gradually trend higher through early Thursday, peaking above the 95th percentile of climo, while southwesterly flow continues in low levels. Temps trend warmer thru Wednesday. Subsidence aloft will maintain a very dry profile, and lapse rates unfavorable for any deep diurnal convection anyway. A shortwave associated with a Midwest cyclone will lead to a brief period of height falls late Thursday and bring a very weak front up to the Appalachians, leading to somewhat more favorable lapse rates and moistening aloft near the TN/NC border around Thursday evening. Model QPF response is minimal but the thermodynamic changes can justify slight-chance PoPs along the immediate border; if precip develops at all only a couple hundredths of rain accum could be expected at that time. Though the passage of the shortwave will lead to lower heights over our area Friday, it turns winds downslope in low levels, and with no airmass change expected, that plus further modification should lead to still warmer max temps Friday afternoon. Warming trend should continue Saturday as the SW flow regime redevelops by then. NBM bias correction appears to be lowering the operational NBM max temps such that they fall below the 25th percentile of the NBM distribution, but even the operational NBM values are within a degree or two of daily records. Recent days we've tied daily max temp records, the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index for MaxT has peaked above 0.9 in our CWA, and the Shift-of-Tails has exceeded 1. These EFI/SoT criteria are met each day Wed-Sat, giving confidence that records could at least be tied at one or more of our climate sites (CLT, GSP, AVL) at some point in that period. High-min records could be in jeopardy also, though the generally clear and dry nights make that a bit more questionable with radiational cooling likely to be better than average. A substantially stronger trough will induce cyclogenesis over the northern Plains by Friday, and should bring a cold front across the lower MS Valley thru Saturday, and then across our CWA early Sunday. A narrow moisture plume is progged to accompany the front into our area along with modest upper divergence. The major global models basically have maintained consistency with their earlier runs in their depictions of precip along and east of the Appalachians; the 14/12z GFS did increase QPF slightly over the Piedmont though that model overall has been drier than concurrent runs of the ECMWF. Likewise EC Ensemble probs of any measurable (> 0.01") rainfall are higher than from the GEFS; neither ensemble suggests much potential for 0.10" for the Piedmont. Thus for now we continue to expect little to no improvement in either soil or fuel moisture from the front and thus no lasting relief from either drought or fire danger. Cooler, near to slightly below normal temperatures do look to result behind the front Sunday and Monday. A freeze is possible in some portions of the mountains Sunday night. Key message 2: Fire weather concerns continue amid a dry and stagnant weather pattern. A Fire Danger Statement is in effect through 8 PM Tue for the North Carolina Piedmont and northeast Georgia. Critically low relative humidity is likely to occur each of the next several afternoons. Even with southwesterly flow continuing over the area from this afternoon through Thursday, the source airmass over the Gulf and Deep South is subsident and dry. Mixing depth will be limited by poor lapse rates aloft, though during peak heating the top of the boundary layer should reach into exceptionally dry midlevel air, so dewpoints should dip several degrees each afternoon. Coupled with unusually warm, early summer-like temperatures, relative humidity is likely to dip below 30 percent in many areas over the next few afternoons, particularly Wednesday and Thursday. Breezy afternoon winds may exhibit a few gusts to near 20 mph, and objective meteorological criteria for Increased Fire Danger statements could be met at least on a local scale. Even where not met objectively, the combination of near-critical RH and wind with dry vegetation will provide enough of a concern for potential wildfire development, so daily Fire Danger Products remain possible throughout the rest of this week. The Fire Danger Statement for the North Carolina Piedmont was in coordination with the North Carolina Forest Service and is in effect until 8 PM today (Tuesday). The Fire Danger Statement for northeast Georgia is for ongoing dry fuels and RH values getting close to the critical threshold of 30%. The Fire Danger Statement for northeast Georgia is also in effect through 8 PM today. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: FEW-SCT low-VFR cumulus this afternoon mainly near the Appalachians, warranting a mention at KAVL and KHKY. Aside from those, just FEW cirrus or SKC thru the period. As far as winds, except for KAVL, predominantly SW with a few gusts of 15-20 kt this aftn. Winds largely turn light and may even go calm/VRB in the very early morning. KAVL instead may see VRB this afternoon as often occurs in light SW flow, with NW likely for a time late tonight. Given slow setup of daytime wind regime and light speeds, just went VRB at KAVL late Wed morning. Outlook: VFR prevails into the weekend. A few low VFR clouds, and perhaps stray SHRA, are possible late Thu or Thu night over the Appalachians. && .CLIMATE... RECORDS FOR 04-14 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 86 2006 36 1907 62 1922 24 1950 KCLT 89 1941 46 1907 69 1922 27 1950 KGSP 92 1916 48 1901 67 1922 22 1907 RECORDS FOR 04-15 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 89 1972 42 1943 64 1887 23 1907 KCLT 89 1936 46 1889 66 2006 28 1907 KGSP 91 2006 45 1913 69 1922 22 1907 RECORDS FOR 04-16 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 87 2006 42 1905 62 1945 26 1943 KCLT 89 2006 49 1890 64 1998 29 2008 1896 1991 1962 1945 KGSP 88 1888 54 1903 64 1945 24 1907 RECORDS FOR 04-17 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 89 1896 45 1890 63 1927 26 1904 KCLT 94 1896 47 1890 66 1896 30 2018 1949 KGSP 92 2006 51 1904 63 1927 25 1905 RECORDS FOR 04-18 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 90 1896 44 1921 60 1927 28 1905 1891 KCLT 93 1896 45 1983 66 1896 32 2001 KGSP 89 2002 51 1983 66 1927 28 1905 1967 && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ010- 017-018-026-028-029. NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ036- 037-056-057-068>072-082. SC...None. && $$ JCW  529 FXCA62 TJSJ 141815 AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 215 PM AST Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 209 PM AST Tue Apr 14 2026 * An unstable weather pattern will persist this afternoon, with showers and thunderstorms developing across portions of Puerto Rico and the USVI. The Flood Watch remains in effect through Wednesday morning. * A wet pattern, associated with the remnants of the trough, will likely continue each afternoon through the weekend. * A high risk of rip currents is present along the northwestern, north, and east-facing beaches of Puerto Rico, including Culebra, through at least Wednesday afternoon. * Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, variable and unsettled weather conditions will prevail, driven by increasing atmospheric instability and shifting wind patterns. && .Short Term(This evening through Thursday)... Issued at 209 PM AST Tue Apr 14 2026 As mentioned in previous forecast discussions, the forecast for this unsettled and wet weather pattern associated with a deepening cut- off low has been challenging, mostly due to the positioning and timing of the heaviest rainfall activity. However, Vieques, Culebra, the USVI, and southwestern/southern Puerto Rico have received between 2 and 4 inches of rain over the last 24 hours. The Rio Guanajibo went out of its banks late last night, flooding roads in areas of Hormigueros and Cabo Rojo. During the morning hours, a line of strong showers and thunderstorms developed just offshore from San Juan through Fajardo, but later moved over the waters and continued to converge and redevelop in areas between Vieques, Culebra, and the USVI. For the rest of the afternoon, expect these areas to remain active. However, satellite data showed cloud clearing during the morning hours. This allowed the sea breeze to develop, which has led to showers and isolated thunderstorms over interior Puerto Rico. Expect this activity to persist through the evening hours. The positioning of the upper-level trough places the western part of the forecast area near the boundary between subsidence and favorable dynamics. Therefore, the strength of convection will depend on the exact placement of that subsidence boundary. However, strong thunderstorms developed between Caguas and the San Juan/Carolina metro area, where a Special Weather Statement was issued early this afternoon. Despite the forecast challenges, antecedent conditions with saturated soils and elevated streamflows continue to increase the flooding threat, as any persistent heavy rain will quickly result in rapid river rises and excessive runoff that could lead to urban and river flooding, with possible flash flooding and landslides, particularly over interior and southwestern Puerto Rico. However, this activity is not expected to be widespread and should remain more localized in nature. For the remainder of the short-term forecast, the trough will meander over the area and combine with above-normal moisture. With this setup, active afternoons are likely, with the development of strong thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rain, frequent lightning, and gusty winds. As mentioned earlier, soils are saturated and streamflows remain elevated; therefore, any additional persistent heavy rain will maintain an elevated flooding risk. Please continue to monitor the forecast throughout the week. && .Long Term(Friday through next Monday)... Issued at 209 PM AST Tue Apr 14 2026 An unsettled weather pattern is expected Friday through the weekend into early next week as a short wave trough sinks into the Caribbean. At the surface, high pressure over the western to central Atlantic will promote moderate to fresh ESE to easterly winds Friday and Saturday, becoming easterly Sunday and slightly ENE by Monday. The pressure gradient will remain uneven, with stronger winds across eastern areas and weaker flow farther west, supporting faster moving showers in the east and slower storm motion in the west. Moisture will increase Friday into the weekend, with PWAT values above normal and at times exceeding climatological maxima, before slightly drier air filters in late Sunday into Monday. Aloft, a jet streak will lift over the area by Monday, while mid level temperatures remain modestly cool. This pattern will support periods of convection and isolated to locally scattered thunderstorm development across the region. Confidence is medium, as details depend on the timing and placement of the trough and deeper moisture. Flooding will be the primary hazard, followed by lightning and breezy conditions. Showers and isolated to locally scattered thunderstorms are expected daily, generally favoring eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands overnight into the morning, then shifting westward each afternoon based on the latest model guidance. The greatest risk will focus over northwestern Puerto Rico Friday and Saturday, western Puerto Rico on Sunday, and southwestern Puerto Rico by Monday. Faster storm motion over eastern areas may limit rainfall totals, but slower moving convection in western sectors could enhance flooding impacts. Breezy conditions will persist due to the general wind flow and may be locally enhanced by thunderstorm downdrafts. Soils may remain saturated, which could further increase the risk of flooding, landslides, and rapid river rises. This pattern will likely disrupt outdoor plans at times. Conditions should gradually improve late Sunday into Monday, though some uncertainty remains. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 209 PM AST Tue Apr 14 2026 MVFR condt across most TAF sites from 14/18Z through 14/22Z, except TJPS. Unstable weather conds will continue to produce SHRA/TSRA across TJSJ and TJBQ. VCTS near TIST and TISX through 15/03Z. Recent PIREPs rpt LGT/MOD TURB, especially nr TJSJ/TIST/TISX. TURB may persist through the night at terminal sites. Winds will remain light and vrb with higher gusts at times. && .MARINE... Issued at 209 PM AST Tue Apr 14 2026 A surface high pressure system over the eastern to central Atlantic, interacting with a stationary frontal boundary north of the region, will promote light to gentle winds tonight. Pulses of northerly swell spreading across the Atlantic waters are maintaining seas around 5 to 6 feet across exposed areas, where small craft should exercise caution over the next several days. The combination of the front and the trough is increasing showers and thunderstorms across the local waters, creating locally hazardous marine conditions through at least midweek. Winds are expected to become gentle to moderate from the east to southeast from Wednesday onward. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 209 PM AST Tue Apr 14 2026 Based on current buoy observations, the forecast has been adjusted, and a high risk of rip currents is now in effect for the northwestern, north, and east-facing beaches of Puerto Rico, including Culebra. The Rip Current Statement is in effect from now through at least 6 PM AST Wednesday (tomorrow) due to energy arriving from pulses of a northerly swell. Beachgoers are urged to heed the advice of lifeguards, as well as beach patrol flags and posted signs. Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, a moderate risk of rip currents persists where rip currents are still possible, while a low risk remains along the southern beaches of the islands. Increasing winds from midweek onward could lead to a moderate risk of rip currents persisting along north-exposed beaches through at least next Saturday. Residents and visitors are encouraged to exercise caution, especially along exposed coasts. For more specific area details, refer to weather.gov/beach/sju. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for PRZ001>013. High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for PRZ001-002- 005-008-010-012. VI...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for VIZ001-002. AM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CVB/MMC LONG TERM...ICP AVIATION...MMC MARINE/BEACH FORECAST...YZR  696 FXUS65 KSLC 141815 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 1215 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Freezing conditions will occur across central and southern valley locations tonight into Wednesday morning. - A strong cold front will bring accumulating valley snow to northern Utah Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, with snow showers continuing into Friday morning. Snow may impact both the Thursday evening and Friday morning commutes along the Wasatch Front. - Very cold temperatures in the teens to upper 20s will occur across most valleys of Utah Thursday night into Friday morning and each subsequent overnight period through Sunday morning. Temperatures this cold can freeze sprinkler systems and cause widespread fruit orchard blossom death. Consider re-winterizing sprinkler systems to avoid property damage. && .DISCUSSION...An upper level low that brought widespread mountain snow and even a few inches to southern valley locations such as Cedar City will continue to pull away from the region this afternoon. With a colder airmass in place under generally clear skies, one more night of freezing temperatures will occur in many central and southern Utah valleys. Freeze Warnings remain in effect for these locations. Attention then turns to a very cold, robust trough dropping south and east into the Interior West on Thursday. The associated cold front will cross into northern Utah late Thursday morning into early Thursday afternoon…reaching Salt Lake City between 3 and 6 PM. Any rain will quickly change to snow as snow levels fall to valley floors. This will likely bring accumulating snow to a portion of the evening commute across the Wasatch Front, as well as impact any outdoor activities across the region. There are some indications in the guidance that this front may be strong enough to have a very intense band of precipitation for 1-2 hours and then a period of subsidence for several hours before snow showers fill back in. These types of fronts tend to limit widespread valley accumulations to around 1-2 inches for the valley floors with higher amounts for the benches. Current NBM 25th to 75th percentile snow totals support these amounts, around 1-2 inches for the valley floors of the Wasatch Front, up to 6 inches benches. Additional snow accumulations will occur in any areas that are impacted by lake enhanced snow showers overnight Thursday into Friday morning. This part of the puzzle is always difficult to discern this far out with how sensitive lake enhancement is to drying in the boundary layer and wind direction. Something to monitor that could allow for higher snow accumulations. Areas south of about Utah County will see far less precipitation as forcing shifts east as the front reaches these locations. One question mark for locally enhanced totals would be the Nephi to Cedar City corridor, where some ensemble members are suggesting heavier, orographically forced snowfall. Areas remaining ahead of the front through the afternoon across central and southern Utah will see strong, gusty south to southwest winds up to 45-50 mph. Current ensemble members suggest there is a 50% chance wind gusts will exceed 45 mph for 3+ hours in many of these valleys, which may eventually require a wind advisory as this portion of the forecast shifts to the near-term. Outside of the fact that the Wasatch Front is experiencing a historically low snow total for the water year and so a few inches of snow will be unusual this year, the portion of the storm that could have even more impact is the very cold temperatures behind the front Thursday night into Sunday. Overnight lows will reach temperatures cold enough in some locations to freeze sprinkler systems that were turned on for the spring during the exceptionally warm spring as well as cause blossom death in fruit orchards. Those who turned on their sprinkler systems across much of Utah may consider re-winterizing, especially those with shallow or above ground pipes. && .AVIATION...KSLC...Operational concerns will remain minimal at the KSLC terminal through the valid TAF period. VFR conditions will be maintained under largely clear skies. Northwesterly winds in place are expected to return to a light southeast between 02-04z per norm. .REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Mountain obscuration will continue through this afternoon across the mountains of central and southern Utah, but cloud cover will rapidly thin this evening and overnight allowing VFR conditions for all areas. In large, northwesterly winds across the airspace will become light overnight, prior to increasing from the south mid morning Wednesday. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Wednesday for UTZ114>116-118>122-130. Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM MDT this afternoon for UTZ117- 125. WY...None. && $$ Kruse/Merrill For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity  733 FXUS61 KOKX 141816 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 216 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The Small Craft Advisory on the ocean has been extended thru the day from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Well above normal temperatures through Friday. 2) Showers and thunderstorms possible through Friday, mainly each afternoon. 3) Strong cold front Sunday with temperatures returning to slightly below normal Sunday night through Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... A large upper level ridge over the East Coast and Western Atlantic is providing for surface temperatures that are and will continue to be well above normal through Friday. High pressure to the southeast is allowing for a generally SW flow advecting in a warmer airmass that sits over the area this week. Given the generally ample sunshine expected today through Thursday, temperatures quickly rise each morning with overall highs in the 80s expected. Some locations in and around NE NJ and perhaps the NYC metro may approach 90 degrees each afternoon into Thursday. Highs closer to the coast will be a bit cooler, generally in the 70s, but uncertainty in temperatures along the coast remains a bit higher than normal as temperatures may exceed current forecast highs depending on subtle shifts in wind direction and speed due to a cold ocean. Temperatures generally begin to moderate a bit by Friday given more cloud cover with highs in the 70s and then even moreso into the weekend with highs in the 60s. .KEY MESSAGE 2... A stationary front well north of the area will generally the focus of several weak mid-level disturbances to push east over the next several days. This should be the main forcing mechanism for any shower and thunderstorm development. Each day, any showers or thunderstorms that develop to the north and west may approach the area into the later afternoon and evening, though uncertainty as to the coverage remains fairly high, despite a fair amount of instability for inland areas. The main threats for any thunderstorms are heavy rainfall but strong to damaging wind gusts remain possible as well, mainly today and Wednesday. As the front sags a bit further south late Thursday into Friday, more showery activity is expected rather than thunderstorms, though an embedded storm can't be ruled out. .KEY MESSAGE 3... A strong cold front is forecast to move through the region during Sunday, while there are still some timing difference, consenus is for a cold frontal passage Sunday afternoon. Showers will accompany the passage, with a chance of thunder as well. After a prolonged period of above normal temperatures, the cold front passage will return temperatures to several degrees below normal Sunday night through Tuesday. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Offshore high pressure will remain south of the terminals through the TAF period. Weak low pressure will move across upstate New York and New England late this afternoon into this evening, bringing a front closer to the area. Mainly VFR through this evening. A late afternoon/evening shower or thunderstorm will be possible. The best chances for thunder will be at KSWF, with just a shower at KHPN, the NYC terminals and possibly KBDR. Will leave out of the KISP and KGON TAF where confidence is low. Can not rule out a brief period of MVFR vsbys early Wednesday morning as some patchy fog may develop. Another round of showers/thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday afternoon, once again with the best chances north of NYC. South winds 10-15kt with gusts 20-25 kt this afternoon. Winds diminish to 10kt or less with more of a SW-W flow. Some of the terminals may even see wind go light and variable. Winds become S once again on Wednesday 10-15kt in the afternoon. Some gusts to near 20kt will also be possible. LLWS possible at KGON tonight, with WSW flow 40 kt at FL020. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Low chance of a shower reaching the NYC terminals. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... Wednesday through Friday: Mainly VFR, with chance of afternoon and evening showers/tstms each day, mainly NW of the NYC metros, with brief flight cat reduction to MVFR. SW winds could gust 15-20kt each afternoon Wed-Thu as well. Saturday: Mainly VFR. Easterly winds around 10kt. Sunday: Chance of showers and thunderstorms, with MVFR conditions possible. S-SW winds 5-15kt. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Small craft advisories that were in effect have been cancelled as wave heights have fallen below 5 feet. There may an occasional gust near 25 kt or a wave height near 5 feet into this evening but it will be short lived. Otherwise sub-SCA conditions expected on all the waters through Sunday. With the passage of a strong cold front Sunday, and high pressure building in from the west, westerly winds and gusts increase Sunday night, with SCA conditions developing on the ocean waters out to 20 nm but late Sunday night, and continuing into Monday. During Monday west to northwest gusts may reach advisory levels across the non ocean waters. && .CLIMATE... Daily record high temperatures that could be reached: Wed, April 15: KEWR: 88/1960 KBDR: 81/1960 KNYC: 87/1941 KLGA: 86/1941 KJFK: 80/2006 KISP: 78/2024 Daily record high minimum temperatures that could be reached: Tue, April 14: KEWR: 62/2014 KBDR: 54/2023 KNYC: 70/2023 KLGA: 67/2023 KJFK: 55/2023 KISP: 54/2022 Wed, April 15: KEWR: 60/2023 KBDR: 53/2012 KNYC: 67/1941 KLGA: 64/1941 KJFK: 58/1960 KISP: 56/2023 Thu, April 16: KEWR: 64/2002 KBDR: 53/2002 KNYC: 69/2002 KLGA: 68/2002 KJFK: 57/2002 KISP: 55/2012 Fri, April 17: KEWR: 68/2002 KBDR: 57/2002 KNYC: 74/2002 KLGA: 73/2002 KJFK: 60/2002 KISP: 61/2002 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MET/MW AVIATION...BC MARINE...MET/MW  523 FXUS64 KSJT 141816 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 116 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorm chances will persist into Wednesday, with a threat for severe storms each day. - A cold front is expected on Saturday, bringing low rain chances and considerably cooler temperatures for the upcoming weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1256 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Another day with isolated to scattered thunderstorms expected to develop this afternoon and evening. A dryline will again shift east to near the western border of the Big Country and Concho Valley, with CAPE values of 3000+ ahead of the dryline. Again though, convergence along the dryline is relatively weak and there are questions on just where and how widespread any convection will be. As we have talked about the last few days, it looks like a weak shortwave may approach the Southern Plains later this afternoon and evening as well, although additional support from it is still uncertain as well. CAMs are all over the place, although most of them show considerably less convection than it looked like a few days ago. With that said, the high model blend POPs (60-80%) just seems overdone for this afternoon and evening with almost none of the CAMs showing convection this widespread. Will decrease POPs back to something in the 30-50% range for most area. Given the instability and much like Monday, any storm that can develop will likely become severe with large to very large hail possible. Low level jet increases to 35-45kts this evening and this may keep any storm alive into the overnight hours. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 116 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 There is a slight chance for isolated thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. Although we will likely cap rain chances at 20% with this activity without much in the way of forcing, or upper level support in our area. There is a better chance of more widespread coverage to our north, and in fact there is a Slight Risk for severe weather north of Interstate 20 in our area, with a Marginal Risk for the rest of the CWA. The main concerns with any storms tomorrow afternoon/evening will be large hail and damaging wind gusts. Thursday and Friday look to be quieter than the past few days, with weaker upper level, and only weak upper level shortwave energy moving through. In addition to the lack of rainfall, temperatures will surge into the mid to upper 80s. Friday night into Saturday, a strong upper level trough will move through the northern and central plains and then into the Great Lakes region. A strong cold front will move into west-central Texas after midnight, moving south of I-10 by mid morning Saturday. Although upper level support for convection will be north of our area, the lift along the cold front may be enough to support a line of showers and thunderstorms along and behind the front as it moves through. Much cooler temperatures are expected Saturday through early next week. After highs in the mid 80s to around 90 degrees on Saturday, we are expecting highs in the mid 60s to around 70 Saturday through Monday. Could see additional precipitation chances by next Monday as upper level shortwave energy moves through and interacts with warm air advection starting back up. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1247 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 MVFR stratus will dissipate this afternoon, holding on the longest in southern terminals, including KSOA and KJCT until mid afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms may affect the terminals tonight, mainly after 00Z/Wednesday. IFR stratus otherwise returns along to KSOA and KJCT toward or just after midnight, with MVFR stratus returning late tonight across the rest of the terminals. IFR/MVFR stratus scatters out mid/late morning at KABI and KSJT, but may persist into early afternoon for southern terminals. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 65 84 62 87 / 50 30 10 0 San Angelo 63 84 61 87 / 40 30 10 10 Junction 62 79 60 86 / 40 40 10 10 Brownwood 64 80 62 86 / 50 50 20 0 Sweetwater 65 86 61 88 / 50 20 0 0 Ozona 63 82 61 84 / 50 30 20 10 Brady 64 79 62 84 / 50 40 20 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....20 AVIATION...04  268 FXUS62 KCHS 141816 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 216 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... All sections have been updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Dry weather and above-normal temperatures will continue through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry weather and above-normal temperatures will continue through the weekend. Prominent ridging aloft and subtropical high pressure at the surface will continue to support dry weather and above normal temperatures through the weekend. The biggest story will be temperatures as upper 80s and low 90s are expected Wednesday and Thursday, followed by low to mid 90s for Friday and Saturday. Values along the immediate coast will be cooler thanks to the daily sea breeze, with the highest temperatures further inland. The best chance of threatening daily record highs will come Friday and Saturday. See the Climate section below for more information. Unfortunately, no rainfall is expected which will only serve to worsen the ongoing drought across the region. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions are expected to prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 18z Wednesday. There could again be a period of shallow ground fog around sunrise on Wednesday and we have maintained the mention of shallow fog at all 3 sites in the TAF's. Southwest winds will turn southerly with modest breezes into the 15-20 kt range with the sea breeze. This has already occurred at KJZI and should take place at KCHS and KSAV by around 20z. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR. && .MARINE... Overall, still no significant change to the forecast through Sunday across the local waters. Subtropical high pressure to the east will be the primary feature, driving south to southwest flow across the waters with speeds mostly in the 10-15 knot range. There will be some local enhancement along the land/sea interface and in Charleston Harbor each afternoon and evening with the sea breeze. A cold front will approach from the west late in the weekend and could produce some modestly stronger flow ahead of it Saturday and Sunday. However, it looks like the front will likely pass through the waters Sunday night and into Monday meaning that any significant surge will likely occur just beyond the current marine forecast time period. Seas should remain within the 2-4 ft range. Rip Currents: A Moderate Risk of rip currents is expected at all beaches Wednesday and Thursday. The combination of 2-3 ft swell with a period of ~10 seconds and moderate onshore flow should be enough to increase the rip risk a bit. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: April 14: KSAV: 90/1922 April 16: KSAV: 92/1967 April 17: KCHS: 91/1967 KCXM: 86/2006 KSAV: 95/1967 April 18: KCHS: 92/1967 KSAV: 93/1967 April 19: KCHS: 91/1995 KCXM: 90/1917 KSAV: 92/1968 Record High Minimum Temperatures: April 19: KCHS: 66/1975 KCXM: 70/2002 KSAV: 69/1880 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$  794 FXUS63 KDDC 141819 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 119 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Red Flag Warning continues through early this evening on strong southwest winds and RH's down to 15% - Increased fire weather risk Thursday to at least Near-Critical conditions as dry south winds resume west of Highway 283. - A more significant Critical Fire day likely west of the dryline on Friday (especially west of Highway 283) with severe weather risk east of the dryline (15% combined severe outlook east of Coldwater to Great Bend line) - Sub-freezing temperatures likely Saturday and/or Sunday morning as cold air mass drives south behind significant spring storm system. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 114 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Spring storm system #1 of 2 continued its approach on the Central Plains, centered near the Utah-Colorado line as of 1730Z. The enhanced, larger scale upward vertical motion with the approaching wave will allow the dryline to sharpen across south central KS into OK by late afternoon/evening, and the dryline will be very close to the southeastern corner of our DDC CWA (southeastern Barber County) such that we will need to keep some slight chance POPs in for strong/severe storm potential -- especially if any left-moving splits off of any supercells across northern OK clips Barber County. Any convective threat should end by mid-late evening as the larger scale storm system continues its push east tonight. On Wednesday behind the storm, models have trended a bit deeper/farther south with the upper wave, such that low level pressure gradient will remain tight enough to keep west-northwest winds higher than previously forecast, thus have collaborated with neighboring offices to bump winds up above NBM baseline to NBM75th percentile with a little bit of 90th percentile influence much of the day (resulting in sustained wind forecast of 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts). On Thursday, the low levels will begin responding to the next storm system -- a larger scale system with deeper surface low which will fully mature by Friday. A much colder air mass will also be involved with Friday's storm up across the northern High Plains, which will drive south toward northwest Kansas Friday afternoon. Meanwhile, a reshaped dryline will develop across southwest/south central KS (likely positioned somewhere between Dodge City and Pratt) by late afternoon. A coupled upper level jet structure will take shape over the warm/moist air mass, allowing large scale forcing for ascent to result in further cyclogenesis/frontogenesis -- setting the stage for what looks to be a rather significant severe weather outbreak across the eastern half of Kansas and much of Oklahoma. The western edge/early development of this potential severe weather outbreak will likely include at least the eastern/southeastern one-third of the DDC CWA, and SPC has maintained a 15% outlook from roughly Coldwater to Great Bend and points east (higher 30% outlook just east of our DDC CWA). An intense cold front with very sharp temperature and significant pressure rises will move across western Kansas Friday evening, and models are certainly suggestive of at least a 1 to 3 hour period of potential high wind at the onset of frontal passage. The official forecast does not yet reflect this, but look for the wind forecast to continue to increase in strength (perhaps significantly) as confidence in timing and strength of the cold front increases. Fairly strong northwest winds will continue through at least the first half of Saturday behind the intense spring storm, but sensible weather will improve by later Saturday afternoon. Cooler temperatures will certainly be noticed with afternoon highs Saturday in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Given the expected magnitude of the cold air mass, we will have to watch for possible freeze headlines Saturday and/or Sunday morning. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1112 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The prolonged period of dry and warm southwest winds will continue through early this evening. Wind speeds will drop off by sunset with a gradual shift to the west or west-northwest, particularly at GCK and LBL. Light westerly winds will continue through the night, picking back up in speed mid-morning Wednesday. All four airports GCK, DDC, LBL, and HYS will remain west of the dryline, so VFR flight category will continue along with near-zero thunderstorm chances. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090. Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for KSZ061>063-074>077-084>087. && $$ DISCUSSION...Umscheid AVIATION...Umscheid  048 FXUS61 KCTP 141820 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 220 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Slight Risk severe weather outlook introduced for Wednesday north of PA Turnpike && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Summerlike warmth visits the region this week with near-record daily maxes and daily mins on tap for Wednesday and Thursday. 2) Several periods of showers and thunderstorms expected during the upcoming week, with the greatest amount of rainfall likely occurring across northern and western PA. Some storms may be severe, particularly on Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Summerlike warmth visits the region this week with near-record daily maxes and daily mins on tap for Wednesday and Thursday. Ensemble prediction systems are in good agreement showing a mean upper-level trough across the western CONUS, with downstream upper ridging taking hold from the Gulf states up the eastern seaboard. This will bring a notable warming trend, with daily highs ranging from the 70s-mid 80s across central PA from Tuesday onward. The latest forecast brings near-record temperatures across the region Wednesday morning through Friday morning, with lows both Wednesday and Thursday morning forecast to be warmer than our average highs this time of year (25 to 30 deg F above normal). Highs in the 70s and 80s will accompany lows in the 50s and 60s. Dewpoints will start to approach the 60F mark, so it will feel a bit humid but not overly uncomfortable. ---------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 2: Several periods of showers and thunderstorms expected during the upcoming week, with the greatest amount of rainfall likely occurring across northern and western PA. Some storms may be severe, particularly on Wednesday. In general for the workweek ahead, the storm track will run from SW to NE across the Great Lakes, with several waves of low pressure drifting into Ontario, CA. A frontal boundary will set up generally west to east across New York and keep unsettled weather in place across northwest PA in particular. For Tuesday, SPC has expanded the MRGL Risk for SVR TSRA to include all of central PA for the afternoon and evening as a 35 to 40 kt WSW LLVL wind max will be present during peak heating as remnants of an MCS approach from the NW. With SBCAPE fcst in the 500-1000J/kg range, renewed convection is likely to initiate with a marginal threat of damaging winds. The severe weather outlook climbs to Slight Risk for Wednesday, fueled in part by increasing low level heat and humidity as dewpoints rise to near 60F. Cool temps aloft will result in steep lapse rates with SBCAPE progged above 1000J/kg across much of central PA. With about 30 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear, discrete cells and clusters/linear segments will be possible. Over the course of the workweek, the probability for showers/storms will be highest in northwest PA. Locations that have been wet lately will continue to see more rain with 1-2 inches expected by Friday, while drought-stricken locations across the southeast part of our CWA will see less rainfall. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Showers and thunderstorms earlier have diminished; however, increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms across the area in the near term (mainly through 03-04Z Wednesday) with the remnants of an MCS approaching from the west. Airfields under the gun for thunderstorms at this time mainly look to be BFD/JST and potentially AOO/UNV/IPT; however, highest odds for the airfields closest to NW PA. Timing has been been brought in to encompass tighter timing windows compared to previous TAF packages; however, there does remain some uncertainty with respect to coverage/timing. A secondary wave of showers and thunderstorms will be expected overnight (~08-13Z Wed); however, coverage on this looks more limited so have kept mentions to BFD/JST based on recent RAP/HREF/NBM model guidance. Slightly lower confidence in any lingering elevated instability so have no mentions of TSRA, but not totally out of the question some TSRA at BFD/JST for this secondary timeframe. Lowest ceilings look to be just above MVFR thresholds across all airfields outside of BFD, where more low-level moisture in recent RAP soundings outline the potential for MVFR-to-IFE ceilings overnight. Previous forecast also had these mentions and main changes came with respect to timing of low-level deck onset. After sunrise, all model guidance points towards VFR conditions area wide with a scattered low-to-mid level deck across the region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be on the docket for tomorrow as well; however, most mentions will not be coming until after 18Z Wed so no mentions towards the end of this TAF package at this juncture. Outlook... Thu...VFR most of the time, but brief restrictions possible in hit and miss showers and thunderstorms, mainly across the north and west. Fri...Restrictions possible early, then improving to VFR in the afternoon. Sat-Sun...Restrictions in SHRA possible. && .CLIMATE... Record high daily maxes and mins are possible this week as summerlike warmth visits the region. Here's a look at the records as they stand right now, with a * indicating that the forecast is equal to or greater than the record. Record High Daily Max / Daily Min... For Harrisburg: April 15: 87* (1941) / 61* (2023) April 16: 89 (2002) / 63* (1941) April 17: 91 (2002) / 60* (2002) For Williamsport: April 15: 86 (1994) / 57* (2023) April 16: 90 (2002) / 55* (2023) April 17: 91 (2002) / 58* (1896) && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Colbert KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl/Colbert DISCUSSION...Steinbugl/Colbert AVIATION...Bauco/Beaty CLIMATE...Colbert  033 FXUS64 KJAN 141820 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 120 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Limited threat for dense fog development Wednesday morning, particularly across south and east Mississippi. - Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly north of Interstate 20 Thursday afternoon. - Chances for more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity exists areawide Saturday afternoon and night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 116 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Tonight through next Monday...Strong high pressure aloft will continue to meander over the central and eastern Gulf of America through the end of the week. This, while high pressure at the surface centered off the coast of the Carolinas, remains wedged into the region from the east. The combination of the two will continue to promote overall quiet conditions and above normal warmth across the forecast area through the remainder of this week and into the start of the upcoming weekend. With increased moisture, mild conditions, and light to calm winds overnight into early Wednesday morning, fog is again possible across mainly south and east Mississippi. A "limited" threat of dense fog is possible here again as well, with visibilities reduced to a half mile or less at times. Any fog that develops will begin eroding after sunrise. Otherwise, look for a quiet night with some low stratus again developing across portions of the area, as lows range from the upper 50s to middle 60s. There will be a slight increase in rain chances across northern portions of the forecast area on Thursday. While the remainder of the CWA will remain dry, a shortwave lifting northeast across the Mid-South region could spark some isolated showers and storms across mainly the Highway 82 corridor during peak heating hours Thursday afternoon. Any convection that develops during this time, will quickly dissipate in the early evening as day time heating wanes. A better chance for showers and isolated storms currently exists across the entire forecast area Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. This is as a result of a stronger shortwave that's advertised to push a cold front east into and through the region late Saturday afternoon into early Sunday. While any rain chances are certainly welcomed, unfortunately this front will be in the process of weakening as forcing lifts out to the northeast. This looks to keep the better rain chances during this timeframe across western and northern portions of the forecast area. Therefore, the upcoming weekend is by no means looking to be a washout. In the wake of the front Sunday into Monday, some relief from the above normal warmth and humid conditions is expected. Highs both days currently look to struggle to climb out of the 70s. While lows both Sunday and Monday night will be cool as they generally fall into the upper 40s and low to middle 50s. /19/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 116 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR flight conditions with southerly winds near 15 kts with gusts around 25kt over the period. Winds will gradually decrease to 8-10 kts over the evening. Dense fog and low stratus after 09Z Wednesday may result in MVFR/IFR with possible LIFR conditions south of I-20, primarily near southeast MS. Flight conditions will return to VFR after 14-15Z Wednesday as fog/stratus dissipate. /SW/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 61 84 64 86 / 0 0 0 10 Meridian 57 85 61 86 / 0 0 0 10 Vicksburg 61 85 64 88 / 0 0 0 10 Hattiesburg 60 85 62 87 / 0 0 0 10 Natchez 62 85 64 88 / 0 0 0 10 Greenville 64 85 67 86 / 0 0 10 20 Greenwood 63 85 66 86 / 0 0 10 20 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ 19/SW  720 FXUS62 KFFC 141826 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 226 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 223 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - A Fire Danger Statement remains in effect for north and central Georgia through this evening. Fire weather concerns will persist this week given the ongoing very dry and warm conditions. - Temperatures will remain well above normal through Saturday. Some daily record highs may be broken. - Appreciable rainfall is very unlikely through this coming weekend, so worsening drought conditions are expected. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 223 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Expansive ridging remains in place through midweek, keeping things high and dry. Temperatures will remain well above normal, and forecast highs are at or within a couple of degrees of daily record highs at the four main climate sites (ATL, AHN, MCN, CSG) on Wednesday. Fire danger continues to be a concern, discussed further in the "Fire Weather" section below... && .LONG TERM... (Thursday morning through next Monday) Issued at 223 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Staying Warm, and Dry for Most through Saturday: The extended periods begin right where the short term leaves off with dry and warm conditions continuing. With zero precip chances Thu, Fri, and Sat, temps expected to rise well above seasonal norms with highs in the middle 80s to middle 90s across north and central GA. The models are showing the ridge over the region weakening Sat as a weak frontal boundary nears NW GA Sat night. the biggest issue is the atmosphere is extremely dry ahead of this front so as it pushes into GA it dries out and most of the area will only see increased cloud cover. Portions of NW GA will see some light showers Sat night into Sun morning but only expecting 0.1" to 0.25" total for area North and West of Carrollton, to Atlanta, to Gainesville line. Unfortunately, even with this frontal boundary moving through it is very likely not going to support the coverage and amount of rainfall necessary to put a dent in the Severe (D2) to Extreme Drought (D3) that covers much of the CWA. The front is expected to move south and east of the area Sun night bringing in a cooler airmass for the beginning of next week. Temps Mon morning will be down into the 40s with highs Mon mainly in the 70s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 102 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions prevail under mostly clear skies with FEW cu in the 5-7 kft range each day. Winds remain WSW to SW at 6-10 kts during afternoon, less than 5 kts to near calm overnight. //ATL Confidence...18Z Update... High confidence. RW && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 223 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Remainder of today: A Fire Danger Statement remains in effect through this evening given low RH values (<30%) and very dry fuels. Wednesday: Similar conditions are expected on Wednesday with forecast minimum RH values largely in the 25-30% range, so an additional Fire Danger Statement is likely areawide. Winds will remain below Red Flag thresholds on Wednesday. Dangerous fire weather conditions are expected to persist each day through the week ahead. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 223 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Records for 04-15 Max Temperature Min Temperature Station High Low High Low ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 89 1936 50 1952 68 1922 28 1943 KATL 87 1972 45 1903 66 1991 31 1950 1936 KCSG 91 1972 53 1952 69 1972 35 1943 1945 1922 KMCN 91 1972 53 1952 69 1922 31 1907 1936 Records for 04-16 Max Temperature Min Temperature Station High Low High Low ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 88 1930 50 1903 62 1982 30 1943 1925 1945 KATL 86 1896 49 1905 64 1945 32 1962 KCSG 92 1925 61 1961 69 1945 32 1950 1928 KMCN 91 1967 56 1905 67 1972 33 2014 2008 Records for 04-17 Max Temperature Min Temperature Station High Low High Low ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 90 1955 55 1949 63 2006 30 1949 1905 1982 1939 KATL 89 1896 44 1904 66 2024 31 1905 1896 KCSG 91 1955 58 1923 69 2006 32 1949 1925 1922 KMCN 92 1955 52 1904 69 2006 34 1949 Records for 04-18 Max Temperature Min Temperature Station High Low High Low ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 90 1942 54 1902 64 1969 32 1936 1927 KATL 87 2002 50 1983 69 1927 33 1997 1937 1896 KCSG 91 2002 60 2014 69 2006 37 1962 1930 1956 1927 KMCN 90 1967 55 1921 66 1922 33 2001 1955 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 58 88 61 87 / 0 0 0 0 Atlanta 61 87 63 86 / 0 0 0 0 Blairsville 54 83 56 83 / 0 0 0 0 Cartersville 57 87 59 87 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 58 88 59 87 / 0 0 0 0 Gainesville 60 86 62 85 / 0 0 0 0 Macon 57 89 60 88 / 0 0 0 0 Rome 56 88 59 87 / 0 0 0 0 Peachtree City 57 87 58 86 / 0 0 0 0 Vidalia 60 91 61 91 / 0 0 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...RW  947 FXUS61 KCTP 141827 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 227 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Slight Risk severe weather outlook introduced for Wednesday north of PA Turnpike && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Summerlike warmth visits the region this week with near-record daily maxes and daily mins on tap for Wednesday and Thursday. 2) Several periods of showers and thunderstorms expected during the upcoming week, with the greatest amount of rainfall likely occurring across northern and western PA. Some storms may be severe, particularly on Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Summerlike warmth visits the region this week with near-record daily maxes and daily mins on tap for Wednesday and Thursday. Ensemble prediction systems are in good agreement showing a mean upper-level trough across the western CONUS, with downstream upper ridging taking hold from the Gulf states up the eastern seaboard. This will bring a notable warming trend, with daily highs ranging from the 70s-mid 80s across central PA from today onward. The latest forecast brings near-record temperatures across the region Wednesday morning through Friday morning, with lows both Wednesday and Thursday morning forecast to be warmer than our average highs this time of year (25 to 30 deg F above normal). Highs in the 70s and 80s will accompany lows in the 50s and 60s. Dewpoints will start to approach the 60F mark, so it will feel a bit humid but not overly uncomfortable. ---------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 2: Several periods of showers and thunderstorms expected during the upcoming week, with the greatest amount of rainfall likely occurring across northern and western PA. Some storms may be severe, particularly on Wednesday. In general for the workweek ahead, the storm track will run from SW to NE across the Great Lakes, with several waves of low pressure drifting into Ontario, CA. A frontal boundary will set up generally west to east across New York and keep unsettled weather in place across northwest PA in particular. This afternoon and evening, a few clusters of thunderstorms could tap into 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE to produce isolated pockets of damaging wind gusts. A lack of upper level forcing over Central PA means we will be dependent on surface-based organization associated with a potential MCS to produce a significant/sustained wind threat. The SPC issued an MCD around 2PM for a developing MCS over northeast Ohio. That complex will make its way into Central PA between 5 and 8PM, which is the most likely window for severe weather. The severe weather outlook climbs to Slight Risk for Wednesday, fueled in part by increasing low level heat and humidity as dewpoints rise to near 60F. Cool temps aloft will result in steep lapse rates with SBCAPE progged above 1000J/kg across much of central PA. With about 30 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear, discrete cells and clusters/linear segments will be possible. Over the course of the workweek, the probability for showers/storms will be highest in northwest PA. Locations that have been wet lately will continue to see more rain with 1-2 inches expected by Friday, while drought-stricken locations across the southeast part of our CWA will see less rainfall. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Showers and thunderstorms earlier have diminished; however, increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms across the area in the near term (mainly through 03-04Z Wednesday) with the remnants of an MCS approaching from the west. Airfields under the gun for thunderstorms at this time mainly look to be BFD/JST and potentially AOO/UNV/IPT; however, highest odds for the airfields closest to NW PA. Timing has been been brought in to encompass tighter timing windows compared to previous TAF packages; however, there does remain some uncertainty with respect to coverage/timing. A secondary wave of showers and thunderstorms will be expected overnight (~08-13Z Wed); however, coverage on this looks more limited so have kept mentions to BFD/JST based on recent RAP/HREF/NBM model guidance. Slightly lower confidence in any lingering elevated instability so have no mentions of TSRA, but not totally out of the question some TSRA at BFD/JST for this secondary timeframe. Lowest ceilings look to be just above MVFR thresholds across all airfields outside of BFD, where more low-level moisture in recent RAP soundings outline the potential for MVFR-to-IFE ceilings overnight. Previous forecast also had these mentions and main changes came with respect to timing of low-level deck onset. After sunrise, all model guidance points towards VFR conditions area wide with a scattered low-to-mid level deck across the region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be on the docket for tomorrow as well; however, most mentions will not be coming until after 18Z Wed so no mentions towards the end of this TAF package at this juncture. Outlook... Thu...VFR most of the time, but brief restrictions possible in hit and miss showers and thunderstorms, mainly across the north and west. Fri...Restrictions possible early, then improving to VFR in the afternoon. Sat-Sun...Restrictions in SHRA possible. && .CLIMATE... Record high daily maxes and mins are possible this week as summerlike warmth visits the region. Here's a look at the records as they stand right now, with a * indicating that the forecast is equal to or greater than the record. Record High Daily Max / Daily Min... For Harrisburg: April 15: 87* (1941) / 61* (2023) April 16: 89 (2002) / 63* (1941) April 17: 91 (2002) / 60* (2002) For Williamsport: April 15: 86 (1994) / 57* (2023) April 16: 90 (2002) / 55* (2023) April 17: 91 (2002) / 58* (1896) && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Banghoff KEY MESSAGES...Banghoff/Colbert DISCUSSION...Banghoff/Colbert AVIATION...Bauco/Beaty CLIMATE...Colbert  758 FXUS61 KBGM 141828 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 228 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Only minor adjustments to the forecast were made with this update; overall the forecast remains on track. There remains a slight risk for scattered severe thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening across a large portion of the forecast area. Another risk for isolated to scattered strong or severe storms will be across the area Wednesday afternoon and evening, and perhaps even again on Thursday as the warm and humid air mass remains in place. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) There remains a threat for strong to severe thunderstorms this evening and again tomorrow afternoon and evening, with strong wind gusts, isolated hail and locally heavy rainfall. 2) The warm pattern through the week will break down late in the weekend. Much colder air arrives Sunday evening into early next week, with a chance for mixed snow and rain showers. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... The next couple of days will be warm and humid for this time of the year with 30+ knots of shear so there will be chances for some strong to isolated severe thunderstorms today and tomorrow. The synoptic forcing today is very week with just a subtle 500 mb shortwave passing through so that likely will not be the main driver of the convection but will help supply the shear (35-45 knots) and steeper mid level lapse rates of around 7 C/km are moving into the area from the west late this afternoon. Instability is beginning to build as surface temperatures rise into the mid-70s to lower 80s and surface dew points hover in the mid to upper 50s. Surface based CAPE early this afternoon is already reaching 500-1000 J/kg, but 100mb mixed layer CAPE is much lower thus far only 250 to 500 J/kg. Bulk 0- 6km shear is increasing, as expected, now between 35-45 kts, with effective layer shear in that same range. Latest visible satellite loop shower some cumulus build up beginning to occur, along with broken mid to high cloud layer over the region. There is a weak shortwave pushing into western NY at this time, that will likely be the main trigger for scattered thunderstorms to develop late this afternoon and evening. SPC maintains the Slight Risk over the eastern half of the forecast area, where the main threat will continue to be isolated severe storms that could produce damaging winds. SPC has also introduced a 2% chance for an isolated tornado or large hail up across Oneida County along a weak warm frontal feature. The main timeframe for storm potential looks to be from about 4-8 PM across our Central NY areas...and a little later, from about 6-10 PM in NE PA...this is based off the latest CAMs such as the 17z HRRR run. Overnight it should quiet down, under partly cloudy skies and very mild temperatures in the mid-50s to lower 60s. Late at night into early Wednesday morning a remnant MCS looks to approach bringing renewed chances for showers and embedded thunderstorms. Wednesday is unfortunately a similar story as today in regards to how the storms may evolve. The synoptic forcing is once again weak with the primary driver of the mid level shortwave is going to be the development of MCS's in the plains this afternoon and overnight. Still, models are in better agreement that there will be more CAPE tomorrow (>1000J/kg of surface cape) and better shear (>40 knots of 0-6 km shear) so if the timing of the mid level wave that triggers the storms is like the current model guidance is showing (in the late afternoon to evening), strong to severe thunderstorms are likely and isolated supercells are possible. SPC maintains a Marginal risk across most of Central NY and NE PA for this potential, with a Slight Risk nearby in Central PA. The main potential threats with Wednesday's Storms will be isolated damaging winds,large hail and training of heavy downpours. WPC has introduced a Marginal Risk for excessive rain, and isolated flash flooding across most of the forecast area Wednesday into Wednesday night. We will still be in this warm SW flow pattern with frequent shortwaves on Thursday. Models are showing scattered showers in the morning, but better forcing arrives late in the day along an incoming cold front. There is uncertainty in the amount of CAPE that ultimately materializes, but with temperatures back in the mid-70s to low 80s and dew points in the low 60s instability could again reach moderate levels (1000 J/kg +). This time period will need to be watched closely as 0-6km shear remains elevated between 40-50 kts once again over the region. The highest parameters look to be across the Twin Tiers down into Northeast PA at this time, so this may be the area to watch for more organized and stronger convection. After the cold front pushes through Thursday night into Friday morning there will be some lingering showers and a chance for a few thunderstorms through the day on Friday. However, overall instability and shear are forecast to be much lower on Friday. Temperatures will also come down some, with highs in the mid-60s to mid-70s expected. KEY MESSAGE 2... While this warm, early summer like pattern persist through the first half of the weekend, Sunday into early next week has continued to trend cooler. High latitude blocking in Greenland will help a deep late season trough to dig into the Northeast US. The GFS and AIGFS both are bringing 516 to 520 dm 500 mb heights on Monday which is well below climatology for mid to late April. 850 mb temperatures also have a high probability of reaching -12C Monday morning and only gradually moderating back toward 0C by Tuesday. With the Great Lakes likely warming up some over the rest of this week, it is possible they would be warm enough to generate lake effect snow shower activity with this pattern, as temperature differentials exceed 15C from the lake surface up to the 850mb level. With the anomalously cold air mass in place it appears daytime highs may stay in the 30s to low 40s on Monday. Very cold overnight lows in the 20s are then expected Monday night into Tuesday morning. It then appears a gradual moderating trend will take hold Tuesday into the middle of next week. As of now, the pattern with the cold is looking dry (outside of lake effect) so despite the cold, a widespread snow event is unlikely at this time. There is still time for the pattern to change as the evolution of the Greenland blocking pattern is all over the place but a cooler stretch of weather is likely, just how cold will it get is uncertain. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and move west to east across central NY. Timing looks to be in the 19-00Z range. Included TEMPOS to account for the scattered nature and slight timing uncertainity with any thunderstorms. Any potential for thunderstorms decreases sharply after 00Z. High confidence at KRME and KSYR for the formation of MVFR/IFR ceilings overnight with a lower potential at KITH and KBGM. Any ceiling restrictions should lift out between 12-16Z Wednesday. Outlook: Wednesday afternoon through Friday...Restrictions possible from showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Saturday...Additional restrictions look to arrive along with showers and storms late in the day Saturday. Sunday... Restrictions possible from showers. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AJG/MJM AVIATION...MWG  002 FXUS63 KDLH 141828 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN Issued by National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 128 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Additional dense fog possible overnight into Wednesday morning, especially near the Lake Shore. - Scattered thunderstorms likely on Friday. A few storms could be strong to severe. - Colder late Friday and into Saturday, with rain changing to snow possible. Any snow accumulation would be light. The chance for travel impacts is low. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1259 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Current Conditions/Today and Tonight: Early afternoon radar and and satellite imagery showed an area of showers with embedded thunderstorms across the arrowhead of Minnesota. These were located ahead of a compact little shortwave trough that was skirting along the MN/CA border. For the rest of the afternoon and evening, expect dry conditions as this system exits to the east. Meanwhile, wind remain fairly light under the influence of a baggy pressure gradient, and that will set the stage for another night of low clouds and fog. Wednesday/Thursday: A couple of days of dry and warm weather are in store for the Northland on Wednesday and Thursday. Wednesday could start out cloudy and foggy, so temperatures depend on how quickly we can clear out. On Thursday, an area of low pressure will organize across the High Plains, and this will bring southerly winds across the region. Current humidity forecast is around 30 to 35 percent, so will have to watch the trends for fire weather concerns. Otherwise expect spring-like weather with highs in the 60s to near 70, except along Lake Superior. Friday/Monday: This low pressure system across the High Plains will track eastward on Friday as a longwave trough amplifies over the central CONUS. That will bring surge of warm and moist air across the Upper Midwest, while drier moves on top of it. This will set the stage for thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening ahead of an approaching cold front. As of now, the most likely area for storms is along I-35 and east. A few storms could be strong to severe owing to the favorable deep layer shear and 1000 to 2000 J/kg of instability. The primary threat will probably be severe hail, but there is a wind threat given the unidirectional shear profile. In the wake of this front, expect much cooler temperatures as northwest wind ushers a return arctic air. Meanwhile the overall storm system will become better organized, and an area of deformation precipitation will develop Friday night into Saturday. Thermal profiles support a rain-to-snow transition. Any snow accumulation should be less than an inch of slushy wet snow on grassy surfaces. One would expect lesser snow amounts if this falls during the day on Saturday given the April sun angle and warm pavement temperatures. Snow will end Saturday night, but the cool air will last through the weekend with highs in the lower 40s Sunday and lower 50s Monday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Challenging forecast with light winds, low clouds, and pockets of fog lingering across the region. For the rest of today, expect MVFR/IFR stratus to persist across the Minnesota TAF sites, but could have a few hours of VFR conditions this afternoon at KHYR. Overnight a weak pressure gradient will linger across the region, meaning light winds and similar weather conditions, so brought back the IFR/LIFR ceilings and visbys tonight into Wednesday morning. The precipitation chances have ended, so did not include any mention of rain in the TAFs. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 247 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The gustiest northeast winds across Lake Superior have passed with a few gusts around 20 kts still being observed across the Lake. Small Craft Advisories have been canceled. There is an expansive cloud deck emanating from Lake Superior that is expected to remain in place through today and into tomorrow. This cloud deck may sink lower to the Lake leading to dense fog, however, webcams have not shown this development yet and model guidance is split on whether this will come to fruition. A marine dense fog advisory may be needed at later this morning. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...WFO MPX AVIATION...WFO MPX MARINE...Britt  884 FXUS62 KRAH 141828 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 228 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 225 PM Tuesday... * None at this time. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 225 PM Tuesday... 1) Dry fuels combined with lower humidity and near record heat will promote fire weather concerns through the end of the week. 2) An early-season heat wave will result in near record high temperatures from Wednesday through Saturday. 3) A late-weekend pattern transition is expected with a cold frontal passage. Low-end rain chances are expected on Sunday, followed by much cooler temperatures early next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 225 PM Tuesday... KEY MESSAGE 1... Dry fuels combined with lower humidity and near record heat will promote fire weather concerns through the end of the week. No changes to the week as far as highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and no rainfall through Saturday. The NC Forest Service has requested additional messaging along with their current state-wide burn ban. We issued an Increased Fire Danger Statement (IFD) the western Piedmont/Sandhills through 800 PM today. More statements will be needed Wednesday and beyond. KEY MESSAGE 2... An early-season heat wave will result in near record high temperatures from Wednesday through Saturday. Anomalously strong subtropical ridging will persist over the Southeast US for much of the period from Wednesday through Saturday, other than a brief dry shortwave passage on Friday. At the surface, a Bermuda High will bring warm southwesterly flow to central NC during this time. 1000-850 mb thicknesses are modeled to be around the 95th percentile for this time of year, and forecast maximum and minimum temperatures get close to or reach record highs each day. Mostly lower-90s for highs and lower-to-mid-60s for lows are expected, which is around 15-20 degrees above normal. Can't rule out some mid-90s on Saturday, which looks to be the hottest day. For reference, this would get close to the hottest temperatures ever recorded any day in the month of April. See the climate section below for more details. Fortunately, humidity looks tolerable, with dew points mostly bottoming out in the lower-to-mid-50s each day, perhaps even some 40s especially in the west. So heat indices will be about 2-4 degrees cooler than the actual air temperatures each day. Still, several days of highs in the lower-90s could result in heat stress for sensitive individuals and those working and exercising outdoors. KEY MESSAGE 3... A late-weekend pattern transition is expected with a cold frontal passage. Low-end rain chances are expected on Sunday, followed by much cooler temperatures early next week. A broad mid/upper trough will advance into the Eastern US from the Plains this weekend. An associated cold front will move across central NC on Sunday. This may result in showers and isolated storms, but at this time both the GFS and ECMWF and most of their ensembles move it through too early in the day for much instability to develop (a few hundred J/kg of CAPE at most). This combined with the best forcing and moisture from the trough focused to our north mean rainfall amounts look light, with ensemble means only a tenth of an inch or less. So there will be very little if any relief from the drought. It will turn significantly cooler on Monday and Tuesday with below-normal temperatures (highs mainly in the upper-60s to lower-70s, lows in the 40s). && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... As of 104 PM Tuesday... VFR conditions will persist through the 24 hr TAF period. Sswly sfc flow will remain light this afternoon, with a few gusts of up to 20 kts possible at KFAY/KRWI this afternoon. Similar light sswly sfc flow is expected Wednesday. Outlook: Sub-tropical high pressure will favor warm, dry, and VFR conditions in cntl NC through Sat. A cold front will bring a low-end chance of showers to central NC on Sunday. && .CLIMATE... All-Time Records for April KGSO: 95 on 4/28/1915 KRDU: 95 on 4/23/1980 and 4/28/1896 KFAY: 96 on 4/12/1930 Record High Temperatures: April 14: KGSO: 90/1922 KRDU: 91/1941 KFAY: 93/1922 April 15: KGSO: 90/2006 KRDU: 92/1941 KFAY: 95/2006 April 16: KGSO: 88/2002 KRDU: 92/1941 KFAY: 94/2006 April 17: KGSO: 90/1967 KRDU: 93/1896 KFAY: 92/1941 April 18: KGSO: 90/1976 KRDU: 95/1896 KFAY: 93/1941 April 19: KFAY: 94/1941 Record High Minimum Temperatures: April 15: KGSO: 65/2006 KRDU: 64/1993 April 16: KGSO: 66/2006 KRDU: 64/1912 KFAY: 69/1934 April 17: KGSO: 63/2002 KRDU: 67/1896 KFAY: 66/1921 April 18: KGSO: 66/1909 KRDU: 63/1941 KFAY: 67/2002 April 19: KRDU: 67/1896 KFAY: 67/2002 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Danco/Badgett AVIATION...Luchetti/Badgett CLIMATE...RAH  421 FXUS62 KILM 141829 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 229 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes from the previous forecast with this update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Persistent dry weather and near-record warm temperatures may create fire weather hazards this week. 2) A cold front expected to arrive next Sunday will bring a low chance of showers and a cooler airmass early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Persistent dry weather and near-record warm temperatures may create fire weather hazards this week. A 500 mb ridge centered across Florida should expand northward over the next couple of days, leading to continued dry weather and above normal temperatures across the Carolinas. Ridging aloft will support Bermuda high pressure off the East Coast through the period. Dry soils and deep low level mixing will produce afternoon minimum RH in the low 30s or upper 20s. High temperatures have a reasonably good chance of reaching 90 degrees inland tomorrow, then exceeding 90 degrees on Friday and Saturday. Along the coast, south to southwest synoptic winds plus the afternoon seabreeze should keep high temperatures ~5 degrees cooler in Wilmington and ~10 degrees cooler at the beaches compared to inland areas. SPC has included a portion of the Carolinas in their Fire Weather Outlook tomorrow citing low humidity, a moderate southwest wind, and a unusually high Energy Release Component (ERC: an index utilizing fuel moisture to indicate how energetically heat will be released by burning woody fuels.) Similar conditions are expected through the weekend. Record highs coming up later this week: ................Wed Apr 15...Thu Apr 16...Fri Apr 17...Sat Apr 18 Wilmington......92 in 2006...90 in 2006...89 in 2006...93 in 1976 Lumberton.......92 in 2006...93 in 1941...91 in 2006...91 in 1941 Florence........94 in 2006...90 in 2006...93 in 2006...93 in 1981 N Myrtle Beach..90 in 2006...87 in 2006...87 in 1995...89 in 1976 KEY MESSAGE 2: A cold front expected to arrive next Sunday will bring a low chance of showers and a cooler airmass early next week. An upper trough pushing eastward across the Great Lakes Sunday will push a surface cold front into the Carolinas on Sunday. The latest GFS, Canadian, and ECMWF all show the front moving through during the afternoon hours, but also show only a tenuous and fading connection to any Gulf moisture. Precipitation along the front may be limited to just a smattering of showers or storms with 0-6 km bulk shear possibly too large for the limited moisture and instability present. Among the dozens of model ensemble members within the NBM, about 30 percent of them show at least .01" of rain across the area associated with Sunday's frontal passage. Increasing the PoP threshold to .10" cuts this to around 20 percent. This system appears unlikely to meaningfully alleviate deteriorating drought conditions across the area. The biggest impact from this front should be the arrival of a cooler airmass for Sunday night into Monday. Monday's predicted highs are in the low 70s, near to slightly below normal for mid April. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR. Winds turn southerly and gusts increase this afternoon behind a sea breeze. Smoke from area wildfires could impact visibility on Wednesday morning, prior to late morning mixing deepens enough for any restrictions to become VFR haze. Confidence is low regarding the severity of restrictions. Extended Forecast... Predominantly VFR through the week due to high pressure. Only exception could be some MVFR or even IFR fog heading into sunrise each morning. && .MARINE... Through Wednesday... Summer-like Bermuda high maintains quiet conditions today and Wednesday. Near the coast, winds will be enhanced by an afternoon sea breeze and gusts up to 20 knots. Inlets could be choppy. Seas 2-3 feet, up to 4 on the 20 nm periphery of the forecast zone due to a lingering 3-foot easterly swell and southerly wind wave. Wednesday night through Sunday... Not much change in the marine forecast for the rest of the week with dry weather and the S to SW wind direction continuing, with speeds varying from around 10 kt during the mornings to as much as 15-20 kt nearshore during the afternoons and evenings due to daily seabreezes. 2-3 ft seas will consist of an east-southeasterly 8-9 second swell plus local 4-5 second wind waves. Next chance of low rain chances and SCA conditions arrives late Sunday into Sunday night with gusts up to 25-30 kt with a cold fropa. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM KEY MESSAGES...ILM DISCUSSION...ILM AVIATION...21 MARINE...MAS/21  594 FXUS64 KOUN 141829 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 129 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 126 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Strong to severe thunderstorms possible Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday. - Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will return several days this week, especially across portions of northwestern and far western Oklahoma. - Dry and cooler weather this weekend. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 126 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A dryline is expected to mix towards the east today, with the potential for multifaceted hazards across the area. To the west of the dryline across western and northwestern Oklahoma, near critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected to materialize. RH values are expected to get down well into the teens across the aforementioned area, in addition to west- southwest winds of 20-30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. Along and east of the dryline, the environment will be characterized by dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s, which will foster instability values over 3000 J/kg. An approaching mid-level trough will continue to move across the Desert Southwest today, with southwesterly flow aloft overspreading the southern Plains. With the aforementioned approaching wave, mid-level heights are expected decrease, which is a good indication of large scale ascent. The 12Z RAOB at OUN indicated a very unstable and slightly capped environment. The anticipation is for daytime heating to mix out any additional inhibition by this afternoon, which will prime the environment for storm development. That being said, storms are likely to develop along the dryline this afternoon and spread eastwards through the evening and overnight hours. The downstream environment will support severe weather, especially as initial storms develop. The main hazards for storms this afternoon and evening will be very large hail (potentially up to 4 inches), damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes. The tornado potential will increase after 00Z, especially for locations north of I-40, where a 50-60 kt LLJ is expected into Wednesday morning. There is some short term guidance that would suggest additional rounds of storms overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Confidence in this is not high, but certainly possible. Bunker && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 126 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The aforementioned wave approaches the area Wednesday, with additional strong to severe storms expected across much of the area. A dryline will once again mix eastward Wednesday afternoon, potentially near the Highway 81 corridor. Any storms that do form along this boundary will have the potential to become severe. All hazards will be possible with the strongest storms that develop. Storms generally should move off to the south and east during the evening hours. Most of the day Thursday will be dry. However, near-critcal fire weather conditions may emerge across western Oklahoma and western north Texas Thursday afternoon. Afternoon highs are expected to warm into the upper 80s and lower 90s with afternoon humidity approaching 10-15 percent. Bunker && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 221 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 On Friday, surface low pressure will deepen quickly, as an upper trough moves across the central and northern Rockies. How far east drier air will mix into far western Oklahoma during the afternoon is uncertain. However, there is the potential for a small area of near- critical to critical fire weather conditions across far western Oklahoma and northern Texas. The bigger story will be the potential for supercell storms to develop along and near a dryline during the afternoon and evening. Better forcing across the northern half of Oklahoma should favor better storm coverage. Still a lot of detail to be worked out, but Friday has the potential for rather impactful storms. Additional storms will likely form along a cold front which is expected to move across most of the area Friday evening and night. The front is expected to push well to our south and east on Saturday, so much of the upcoming weekend is expected to be dry with highs in the 60s to lower 70s. A southerly wind is expected to increase on Monday with most areas remaining dry. The exception may be a few showers across southern Oklahoma. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1211 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 One or more waves of storms is expected to develop in western Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas this afternoon, and progress eastward (with northeastward storm motions) through the evening. Keeping prob30s for now given the line is expected to be broken and there remain some uncertainties in timing. Clouds are remaining more persistent then previously expected, but some lifting is still expected. As on previous mornings, MVFR stratus will develop again in the morning up toward I-44 and along I-35. Winds will remain southerly and mostly gusty, aside from a wind shift in northwest Oklahoma toward morning. Day && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 64 79 59 85 / 60 60 40 0 Hobart OK 62 85 52 89 / 60 40 20 0 Wichita Falls TX 65 84 60 90 / 70 50 20 0 Gage OK 53 82 46 89 / 20 10 10 0 Ponca City OK 63 80 56 85 / 60 60 50 0 Durant OK 65 79 64 86 / 80 80 50 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004-005-009- 010-014-021. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...13 SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...14  268 FXUS64 KFWD 141830 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 130 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered storms may impact our far western counties late this afternoon and evening with a threat for severe hail and wind. - An active pattern with chances for showers and storms will persist this week. There is potential for strong to severe storms again on Wednesday. - A strong cold front on Saturday is expected to bring much cooler temperatures and drier weather to end the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 1045 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 While there is a threat of strong to severe storms today and tomorrow, the threat in our forecast area will be isolated and largely confined to areas northwest of D/FW. Our entire forecast area is in an expansive open warm sector with a dryline over West Texas. Ahead of the dryline, an open gulf is promoting dense stratus that has pooled underneath a hearty cap that was based around 880 mb on this morning's sounding. Modest lift from heating will deepen the boundary layer this afternoon (latest aircraft sounding now has the cap around 860 mb), but the absence of a more robust source of lift will limit deep convection to areas near the dryline later today and this evening. The dryline is forecast advance as far east as about Fredrick to Snyder even down to the Big Bend region of Texas this afternoon by the time thunderstorms initiate. Above the cap, quite steep lapse rates and sufficient shear exist for supercells to develop quickly, well to the west of our forecast area. The storms should advance east-northeast off the boundary, likely growing upscale into a few clusters or bowing segments overnight. These are the storms that should move into the western parts of our forecast area this evening, not the robust initial supercells that are driving SPC's Enhanced risk to our northwest. The storms that move into our area this evening will be driven by their own cold pools and moving into an increasingly stable environment, particularly after about 10 pm local. So while a few storms/clusters will be able to break the cap with the help of their own cold pool, expect storms to decay as they advance east toward the I-35 corridor. While not explicitly mentioned above, we will also have to watch storms currently near the Big Bend area that could move into Western Central Texas late tonight/early tomorrow morning. The same caveats about moving into an increasingly stable environment also apply to these storms. Another warm and humid night, under dense gulf stratus, is forecast tonight as the dryline retreats west. There is a chance of scattered elevated showers, perhaps a few thunderstorms, across North Texas tomorrow morning. The lift causing these storms should be diffuse and broad, so pinpointing the exact location of this activity is difficult, even at this time range. Given how steep the lapse rates aloft are, we can't rule out a few instances of large hail if robust updrafts are able to organize. There should be a lull in activity in the late morning into early afternoon before thunderstorm activity ramps back up later in the day. The dryline is forecast to nudge a little further east tomorrow, stalling near Wichita Falls to Abilene with a triple point in SW Oklahoma. We expect another round of storms to develop near/east of the dryline (especially near the triple point) that move east-northeast through the evening, weakening overnight. A majority of the CAMs initiate simulated reflectivity returns, that appear to be thunderstorms, in the open warm sector tomorrow afternoon along and east of the I-35 corridor, but forecast soundings don't really support deep/surface-based convection. It appears that most of the simulated reflectivity blobs are showers initiated within the boundary layer, while the deepest/strongest convection remains to our west/northwest near the dryline. We'll be watching to see if the low-level stratus thins out and promotes stronger surface heating, which would help a few more updrafts break the cap ahead of the dryline. The chance of this is around 10-20% if I had to put a number on it. All of this to say, while there is another threat of strong to severe storms again tomorrow, the severe threat in our area should be isolated and largely confined to areas northwest of D/FW. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1045 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Subtle ridging aloft is forecast to move over the state on Thursday, choking thunderstorm chances as we head into Thursday. Even though the surface pattern remains unchanged (staying in the warm sector with a dryline to our west), we do not have any precip mentioned in the forecast Thursday. As a result, it should be a warm to hot day with high temps in the upper 80s and heat index values in the low 90s. Similar weather is forecast Friday, but a little cooler high temperatures as the wind field backs out out of the south-southeast. A cold front is forecast to slide down the plains Friday night, moving through North and Central Texas Saturday. This will be a rather strong cold front for this time of the year, lowering highs from the upper 80s on Thursday to the low 70s/upper 60s Saturday and Sunday. After about a week of sustained southerly flow, the front will be able to squeeze some rain out of the atmosphere. Most of the activity will develop near the front and last for only a couple hours before moving south. Average rain amounts Saturday are generally less than 0.25" due to the quick-moving and light nature of the precip. A reinforcing high pressure system will move into the region Sunday night and Monday, keeping below-normal temperatures in place early next week. Southerly flow returns by Tuesday, bringing temperatures to near the seasonal norms by the middle parts of next week. We'll have to watch for quick-moving systems moving across the region that develop precip, but those details will come into focus a little later. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1045 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A blanket of high MVFR/low VFR ceilings overspreads all TAF sites at this time. Expect the ceilings to slowly lift over the course of the afternoon, becoming VFR at all terminals in the hour or two near sunset. Scattered storms are forecast to develop well west of the D10 terminals that may impact Bowie arrivals and potentially Glen Rose arrivals this evening, but we expect the storms to dissipate before reaching D10. Another round of low MVFR stratus is expected tonight/tomorrow morning. Although we did not include it in the TAF, there is a ~30% chance of high IFR ceilings between ~12-16Z. We did not include any precip in the TAFs for tomorrow. The large scale sources of lift are too displaced from the TAF sites and we simply do not have enough confidence of direct terminal impacts at this time. Future TAFs will monitor the trends and add precip as warranted. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1232 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 83 69 81 67 / 20 40 50 40 Waco 82 68 79 67 / 10 10 40 30 Paris 81 67 79 65 / 20 30 50 70 Denton 81 67 80 65 / 20 50 60 30 McKinney 81 68 80 66 / 20 40 50 50 Dallas 84 69 81 67 / 20 30 50 40 Terrell 82 68 81 66 / 20 10 50 50 Corsicana 84 69 84 68 / 20 10 40 40 Temple 83 68 83 67 / 10 10 30 30 Mineral Wells 82 66 81 64 / 20 50 60 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Bonnette LONG TERM....Bonnette AVIATION...Bonnette  687 FXUS62 KTAE 141830 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 230 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 227 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Patchy fog is possible Wednesday morning over the Florida Panhandle and Southeast Alabama, mainly for areas west of the Ochlockonee River. If encountering fog while driving, slow down, use low beam headlights, and increase braking distance. - Little or no rain is expected through this weekend. Drought conditions will worsen. Fire concerns will remain elevated. Use extreme caution with any outdoor burning. Please heed burn bans where they are in effect. - Above normal temperatures will continue through this weekend, with lower 90s likely late this week. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Wednesday) Issued at 227 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Upper level ridging is firmly in place over much of the SE, with little change expected in the positioning of this ridge through the next couple of days. Under this dominant ridge, daytime high temperatures will be well-above average in the upper 80s. Some locations will likely reach and/or exceed 90F later this week, especially in our eastern counties away from the coast. Overnight low temperatures this week will be consistently in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Patchy fog is likely the next couple of mornings as winds drop to near calm overnight under the ridge. Otherwise, hot and dry conditions in addition to the ongoing drought will lead to increased fire weather concerns this week, even if surface winds underneath the ridge will be low. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 227 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The first indications of a pattern change comes later this week. A weakening trough will swing well to our north on Friday, helping to start to break down the SE ridge. A much more energetic trough follows a similar path late this weekend, fully pushing out the SE ridge this time. The associated frontal passage with the latter of the two systems will bring lower temperatures early next week, with daytime highs likely in the upper-70s/lower-80s on Monday. Despite the increased troughing, little-to-no precipitation is currently expected with either system as the greatest forcing will remain well to our north and the airmass overtop of the region will be very dry. Drought conditions will persist or worsen through the forecast period. While still far out at this time, model guidance is indicating an extremely dry post-frontal environment starting next Monday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 108 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period, with the exception of brief MVFR/IFR fog possible tonight, with most being limited to ECP/DHN. && .MARINE... Issued at 227 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Surface high pressure will firmly be in place over the next few days. Light to gentle winds out of the south/southeast are expected over the waters this week, with wave heights at around 1 to 2 feet. Seabreezes will likely develop and push inland each afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 227 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Hot and dry conditions will characterize the rest of the work week as strong upper level ridging persists over the region. Transport winds will be light (5-10mph) and out of the south/southwest through the forecast period. Dispersions will be moderate today but will increase on Wednesday, primarily for the western half of the CWA. Higher dispersions on Thursday are limited to our northernmost counties with moderate dispersions elsewhere. Afternoon minimum RHs will likely dip into the high-20%/low-30% each day this week. Considering this alongside the antecedent drought conditions and hot high temperatures expected, fire weather concerns can be expected each day despite the weak transport winds. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 227 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 No rain is expected for the next several days. Drought conditions will continue or worsen. For more local drought information & statements, visit the following websites: weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 58 88 58 88 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 61 81 63 81 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 58 87 58 86 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 59 89 60 88 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 58 90 58 90 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 57 88 56 87 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 62 77 63 77 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Wednesday for FLZ114-115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Montgomery LONG TERM....Montgomery AVIATION...LF MARINE...Montgomery FIRE WEATHER...Montgomery HYDROLOGY...Montgomery  990 FXUS64 KBRO 141833 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 133 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 127 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Key Messages: - Breezy conditions will continue this week. - A moderate risk of rip currents will likely prevail through the week. - Temperatures above average through this week with a cool down late this weekend. - Unsettled weather will return this weekend in association with a cold front moving through Texas. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 127 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 High pressure over the Gulf will maintain warm, dry, and breezy weather through the remainder of this week. Above average temperatures with highs around 90 (80s near the coast) and morning lows in the low 70s will continue through Saturday. Breezy southeasterly winds will continue, with gusts of 30-35 mph possible each afternoon, with the breeziest afternoon being Friday. These should stay below Wind Advisory criteria, but Friday in particular will continue to be monitored. Rain chances are 10% or less through Saturday. At local beaches, there is a Moderate Risk of Rip Currents through at least Wednesday. Gusty winds in conjunction with Friday's new moon will likely keep the risk elevated through the week. Persistent southeasterly flow will allow moisture to build into this weekend. Ensemble PWAT values are forecasted to be greater than the 90th percentile of climatological normals (1.7- 1.9"). A cold front expected to sweep through deep South Texas late Saturday into Sunday will bring cooler temperatures and be able to tap into this moisture, increasing rain chances Saturday night through Monday. The greatest chance of rain at this time is Sunday, with moderate chances (40-60%) region wide. Check back for updates as we continue to refine the forecast. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Partly cloudy skies will leave primarily VFR conditions for the rest of Tuesday afternoon and evening, although brief MVFR cannot be ruled out under patches of denser cloud cover around 3000 ft AGL. Southeasterly winds between 15 to 20 kts with gusts to 30 kts will continue into the evening. MVFR ceilings will build overnight and persist into Wednesday morning. Winds decrease overnight, with gusts around 20 kt, before increasing again mid morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 127 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A moderate to fresh onshore breeze will maintain moderate seas into this weekend. An enhanced pressure gradient will bring periods of strong gusts on the Laguna Madre and nearshore Gulf waters out to 20 nm. This will likely result in Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines each afternoon, with brief gusts 20 kts or more possible over the Laguna Madre. This weekend, Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible behind a cold front with rough seas Sunday into Monday. There is an increased chance of rain and thunderstorms Saturday night through Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 73 87 73 88 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 70 89 70 90 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 74 91 74 93 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 72 92 72 94 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 73 79 74 80 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 71 85 71 85 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...69-HK LONG TERM....69-HK AVIATION...69-HK  797 FXUS64 KSHV 141833 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 133 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1215 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Chance for some showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday with an upper low riding over the Plains on SW flow. - The weekend cold front is looking earlier on Saturday with more needed rainfall and cooler readings Sunday into Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1137 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Surface ridge across the Atlantic Ocean extending westward across the northern gulf coast combined with a low across the Kansas will maintain increased southerly flow of gulf moisture through the middle of the weekend. An eastward moving upper-level trough across the Desert Southwest into the Central Plains will lead to steepening lapse rates across eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas this evening and overnight as heights gradually fall across these areas. The combination of a moist boundary layer and increasing instability aloft could allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms across northeast Texas and southeast Oklahoma overnight. Although the ArkLaTex is outside of the SPC Day 1 severe weather threat outlook, a few strong storms could venture into portions of southeast Oklahoma allowing for gusty winds and possibly small hail near daybreak. Another shortwave trough to swing east across the Texas panhandle into Oklahoma on Wednesday evening allowing for another round of convection across southeast Oklahoma and Arkansas into the overnight hours. A few strong storms may be possible across portions of southeast Oklahoma with widespread rainfall expanding into Arkansas as upper forcing wanes. Conditions to improve on Thursday as weak upper-level ridging builds across the region. However, southwest flow to return by Friday allowing for increased instability ahead of a frontal boundary that will move across the region on Saturday. Could see widespread showers and thunderstorms across the entirety of the ArkLaTex on Saturday, lingering across areas south of Intestate 20 into Saturday evening. Otherwise, cool and dry high pressure to build areawide by Sunday with highs in the lower 70s and lows Monday morning in the mid to upper 40s. /05/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 For the 14/18Z TAF period, low VFR cigs dominate our airspace early this afternoon with cu/stratocu slowly lifting above 3Kft. This trend will continue through the remainder of the afternoon with any convection remaining very sparse in coverage. Otherwise, look for more low stratus to return overnight through Wednesday morning with MVFR and even some intermittent IFR cigs impacting several terminals through mid to late morning before gradually improving by the end of the TAF period. Breezy south winds will prevail this afternoon from 6-12 kts on average with higher gusts near 20 kts, then dropping off after 15/00Z. /19/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1240 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Spotter activation will not be needed until late Wednesday. /24/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 65 85 67 87 / 0 0 20 20 MLU 63 88 66 89 / 0 0 10 20 DEQ 63 80 62 83 / 20 40 80 30 TXK 67 85 67 86 / 10 20 60 20 ELD 62 85 64 86 / 0 0 30 30 TYR 67 84 68 86 / 0 30 40 10 GGG 66 84 67 86 / 0 20 30 10 LFK 65 85 67 88 / 0 10 10 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...05 AVIATION...19  699 FXUS61 KCLE 141835 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 235 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Additional storms have developed across northern Ohio this afternoon as a MCV adds support to a destabilizing atmosphere. Additional rounds of storms are likely throughout today with increasing potential for severe weather tonight. An Enhanced Risk now clips far NW OH with strong winds the primary concern, but large hail and a tornado or two still possible. Confidence continues to increase in the heavy rainfall potential trough Wednesday night. A Flood Watch has been issued across NW OH from 00Z Wednesday to 12Z Thursday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Multiple rounds of severe weather are possible through Thursday with an additional potential on Saturday as the active pattern continues. All hazards are at play. 2) There is increasing concern about the potential for flooding across the area. A Flood Watch has been issued for portions Northwest Ohio. 3) Above normal temperatures will continue through Saturday before cooler temperatures return Sunday into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A very active pattern will bring the potential for multiple rounds of severe weather today, Wednesday, Thursday and again on Saturday. Focusing on the remainder of today/tonight first, there is currently a Slight Risk across much of the area (Marginal risk in NWPA) for the potential of strong to severe storms producing strong winds, large hail, and non-zero potential for tornadoes. The atmosphere appears to be destabilizing quickly this afternoon after the morning round of convection moved east. Dewpoints have climbed into the 60s with strong southwest WAA. Patches of clearly skies are also being observed, further enhancing the daytime heating. As a result, SBCAPE has already climbed to 1000 to 2000 J/kg across the western counties, allowing for an area of storms to develop. These storms may continue to ride the theta-e gradient towards the northeast, but are expected to weaken as the environment becomes less conducive. With that being said, these pop up showers will likely be possible through much of the afternoon, even with an overall lack of large scale support. The larger concern for severe weather across northern Ohio will be tonight as a LLJ and mid-level shortwave traverse the region. These components should enhance ongoing convection upstream of the area, which will ultimately push east. Best thought on timing at this point is onset near Toledo between 3-5Z Wednesday, gradually spreading east. The path of the system should closely mirror the warm front that will be established north of the area, keeping the greatest severe potential along and north of US30. With that being said, strong outflow colliding with an unstable atmosphere further south will have the potential for additional convection to develop along those boundaries, which is the primary reason SPC has shifted the Day 1 Severe Outlook further south. Through tonight there will be many moving parts that will have to be monitored, making this forecast extremely tricky and maintaining rather low confidence at this point. All hazards will be at play, although the tornado threat should be isolated to any storms that develop ahead of the main MCS. Now shifting to the remainder of the week. Multiple shortwaves and surface low pressures are expected to traverse the region, bringing the potential for additional severe weather on both Wednesday and Thursday. Both days, the severe potential will be highly dependent on how well the atmosphere recovers after overnight/early morning convection. On Wednesday, right now the best timing looks to be in the afternoon and evening with the primary hazard being strong winds, although large hail and a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. SPC has highlighted much of the area in a Day 2 Slight Risk. On Thursday, a slightly more defined, yet still weak cold front will push east early in the day. This frontal boundary would likely be the focus of any convection and to highlight this SPC has pus the western portion of the area in a Marginal Risk. Last but not least, there is also a severe weather potential on Saturday as a deepening upper level trough pushes into the region with strong synoptic support and a strong cold front pushing east. Given this is rather far out, not going to dive into the details as they will likely change, but to highlight this risk SPC has highlight much of the CWA in a 15% probability of severe weather on Day 5. TLDR: There are multiple chances of severe weather through Thursday with all hazards at play. Timing and intensity remain uncertain at this point. A potent trough will push east this weekend, moving a strong cold front east on Saturday and resulting in another potential round of severe weather. SPC has highlighted all of these concerns in the various severe weather outlooks. KEY MESSAGE 2... With this very warm and moist airmass, similar more to late spring/early summer conditions, heavy rainfall associated with convection is likely. Modeled PWAT values of 1.25-2" are expected to persist into Thursday as sustain southwesterly flow continues to stream deep layer moisture across the region. Although QPF totals remain very uncertain, especially given the uncertainty in the various rounds of convection, there is a good chance of very efficient rainfall rates of 1-2" per hour in the strongest storms. These rates are supported by a deepening warm cloud layer and periods where a skinny CAPE profile are predominant in modeled soundings. In addition, some of the convection should be enhanced by a strengthening LLJ that nudges northeast into the region, which will further enhance heavy rainfall potential. These conditions combined with recent heavy precipitation across the area may result in localized flooding and rises in streams and rivers, especially in areas that receive multiple rounds of convection. Given the increasing confidence in the heavy rainfall potential, a Flood Watch has been issued for portions of NW OH beginning at 00Z Wednesday through 12Z Thursday. Will have to continue to monitor the evolution of storms over the next 48 hours to determine any additional hydrologic headline needed. KEY MESSAGE 3... As recently discussed in most of the AFDs, northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania continue to reside in a pattern of above average temperatures with daily highs into the 70s and overnight lows in the 60s. These temperatures will persist through Saturday before a strong cold front pushes east and cools temperatures back to near average for this time of year. High temperatures on Sunday and into early next week will only climb into the 50s with overnight lows dropping into the 30s. Given the prolonged warmth the area has seen this week, the growing season has officially begun for all of the Ohio Counties in the CWA. With the cool down expected, will have to monitor for any frost potential early next week. && .AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/... There are thunderstorms moving through central Ohio this currently that are bringing visibility down to IFR and LIFR in the heaviest portions. This line should continue eastward and impact KMFD,KCAK, and KYNG over the next few hours. It will be fairly quick moving so non-VFR conditions won't last long. Thunderstorms may impact KCLE as the top portion of the line moves through, though conditions should not deteriorate as much that far north. Winds with the line have gusted up to 35 knots out of the west-southwest though up to 40 knots is possible as well. After this line moves through, VFR conditions are expected until 05-08Z tomorrow morning when a line of thunderstorms will move in from the north. There is some uncertainty as to the spatial extent and when the line will reach the area, so opted for a PROB30 at this time. This will need to be refined in the coming TAF package this evening. Winds are currently 10-15 knots sustained gusting around 20-30 knots out of the southwest. Winds at the surface will diminish tonight by 00-02Z down around 12 knots. There may be some turbulent air in the lower levels, but LLWS concerns should be minimal with lower level winds at around 30 knots. By early tomorrow morning, winds will start gusting up to 20 knots and continue through the end of the TAF period. Outlook...Periods of non-VFR conditions are expected in showers and thunderstorms through Thursday. && .MARINE... Winds across Lake Erie remain between 10-20 knots out of the south to southwest today. As with previous days, the resultant waves of 3-5 feet will be higher in the open waters and towards Canada. Generally, winds will remain out of the southwest at 10-15 knots across the lake through Friday. High pressure will build into the region on Friday and winds will become light at around 5 knots and variable. By Saturday, winds will increase again out of the south to 15-20 knots as a warm front moves north across the lake. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through Thursday morning for OHZ003-006>009-018-019. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...04 AVIATION...23 MARINE...23  189 FXUS63 KILX 141837 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 137 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Periods of thunderstorms will continue through early Saturday. A 15-30% risk for severe weather exists this afternoon, tomorrow night, and late Friday into Saturday. The primary risks this afternoon will be large hail and damaging winds. - With any training storms, heavy rainfall may result in localized flooding. There is a level 2 of 5 (slight) risk for excessive rainfall this evening northeast of a roughly Galesburg to Mattoon line. - After a warm work week, conditions will turn sharply cooler on Saturday. There will be a low (20-30%) chance for frost Saturday night north of I-70, and a higher chance area-wide Sunday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 133 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ***** BOOM OR BUST CONVECTIVE SCENARIO THIS AFTERNOON ***** At 1pm, a warm airmass was in place across central and southeast Illinois with temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s. Gulf moisture continues to surge into the region on 15-20 (gusting to 30) mph southwest breezes, with dewpoints currently in the mid 60s. Consequently, the airmass is becoming increasingly unstable with RAP mesoanalysis indicating 1500-3000 J/kg SBCAPE. A capping inversion should prevent convective initiation unless and until a trigger lifts parcels to the LFC, which at this point remains unclear. Recent iterations of the HRRR and several members of the 12z REFS suggest that cap will break, resulting in explosive convective development and scattered severe weather across the CWA by mid afternoon. However, about 60-70% of CAMs keep the cap in place throughout the evening - maintaining warm and breezy conditions. The 18z raob confirms this notion, depicting a 3 degC capping inversion around 800mb which would take a lot of forcing to overcome. Given the parameter space for severe weather is forecast to become volatile over the next few hours, with SBCAPEs climbing to 2500-4000 J/kg, 700-500 lapse rates reaching 8-8.5C/km, and 45-55 kt effective bulk wind shear, any storms that form would pose a risk for severe weather, especially large hail where storm relative inflow (from the SSW/SW) is unimpeded in right- moving supercells (favored by clockwise curved hodographs). In addition, a few of the more bullish models show localized pockets of 3+ inches of rain falling in a few hours with training storms, which could result in some hydrological issues; accordingly, WPC has expanded the level 2 of 5 (slight) risk for excessive rainfall southward into much of our CWA. We'll be keeping a close eye on mesoscale trends this afternoon to assess the potential and issue any necessary warnings. ***** MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW ***** We'll likely (50-70% chance) have a few more storms overnight tonight as a weakening MCS lifts up into our area from northeast Missouri. We may end up needing some short-fused wind headline if the HRRR and RRFS are correct in their depiction of a meso-high feature impacting our west/southwest counties between 11pm and 4am, though confidence in this scenario is also low. The upper level low will slowly approach our area tomorrow, with continued warm advection ahead of it bringing waves of thunderstorms through the Prairie State. It appears instability will be a bit weaker tomorrow due to widespread clouds and scattered storms limiting surface heating, though the risk for severe weather will increase during the late evening or early overnight period (8pm-2am) west of I-55 where a few CAMs bring a weakening line of storms capable of locally severe winds. ***** DRY THURSDAY(?), STORMS RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT ***** A weak cold front will settle across the district on Thursday, bringing a moment's repose from the active pattern. However, the front will lift back north Thursday night into Friday, when instability will build ahead of a more potent kinematic system. As with today, we'll be in the warm sector on Friday, so a volatile thermodynamic environment would support severe weather if a trigger ruptures the capping inversion. Otherwise, more numerous showers and storms will pass through the area along the cold front sometime late Friday night or Saturday morning. While this is not a diurnally favorable period for severe weather, the strong forcing with the cold front and 45-55 kt deep layer shear could result in at least scattered severe winds if a mature line of storms enters our area from the west Friday night...or develops along the cold front in eastern Illinois on Saturday. ***** COOLER WEATHER RETURNS SATURDAY ***** A cold front will cross the area sometime on Saturday, with stiff west winds ushering in a more seasonably cool airmass for the second half of the weekend. NBM indicates a 30-50% chance low temperatures by Saturday night fall to 36 deg or cooler north of I-70, though winds should remain elevated to prevent frost formation. The better opportunity will be Sunday night, when NBM chances are 30-60% area- wide for sub 37 degF lows and winds should be calm with surface high pressure parked across the CWA. Protective action may be needed to prevent frost from damaging tender vegetation. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1241 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Isolated (20-30% coverage) thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon, potentially impacting any of the airfields from roughly 19z to 02z. These could be severe and produce high winds and large hail, though confidence in a direct impact at any given location was too low to add a mention of GR or 50+kt gusts in the TAFs. Tonight into Wednesday morning, periods of isolated, though less intense, showers and storms are forecast. There is a 20% chance that a period of gusty winds impacts PIA, SPI, and BMI between 05z and 09z as a decaying storm complex approaches from the southwest, though again confidence was too low to add this to the TAFs. Outside of storms, winds will predominantly blow from the SSW around 12-15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt throughout the period. MVFR ceilings at the northern terminals early this afternoon should lift and/or break up by 20z. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 307 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 RECORD HIGHS FOR 4/14: PEORIA: 86 (2024) SPRINGFIELD: 89 (2006) LINCOLN: 87 (2006) NORMAL: 84 (2006) URBANA: 84 (2010) DECATUR: 88 (1941) FORECAST HIGHS FOR 4/14/2026: PEORIA: 84 SPRINGFIELD: 87 LINCOLN: 86 NORMAL: 84 URBANA: 84 DECATUR: 85 && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...Bumgardner DISCUSSION...Bumgardner AVIATION...Bumgardner CLIMATE...25/MJA  727 FXUS61 KBOX 141837 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 237 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes, the forecast remains on track. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered late day and evening showers and thunderstorms with a low risk of severe weather. - Summerlike warmth continues Wednesday away from the coast, but backdoor front will bring cooler temps to portions of eastern MA. Another round of scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms with a low risk for severe weather. - Temperatures trend milder western MA/CT and cooler in eastern MA/RI Thurs-Sat, with periods of showers/t-storms mainly focused on Fri. - Strong cold frontal passage Sunday ushers in cooler temperatures for early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Scattered late day and evening showers and thunderstorms with a low risk of severe weather. Latest hi-res guidance has delayed onset of scattered convection moving into SNE to late in the day and this evening. We still have height rises into early afternoon then weak height falls developing late today and this evening as a weak shortwave passes to the north. There are favorable mid level lapse rates approaching 7 C/km and there is sufficient 0-6km shear for storm organization. However, instability is marginal with MLCAPES generally 500-1000 J/kg and with potential convection delayed into the evening instability will be diminishing. Also forcing for ascent is marginal as well. So while there are some conflicting signals for severe weather, if robust convection can get going to the north and west later this afternoon favorable deep layer shear should be enough to support a few strong to severe storms with the timing mainly from 5-10 pm across northern and western MA where HREF is showing some updraft helicity tracks. Strong to damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat but can't rule out some hail given steep mid level lapse rates and favorable deep layer shear. KEY MESSAGE 2...Summerlike warmth likely to continue Wednesday away from the coast, but backdoor front will bring cooler temps to portions of eastern MA. Another round of scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms with a low risk for severe weather. Backdoor front expected to slip southward into NE MA Wed morning and eventually move through rest of eastern MA by late afternoon but timing is uncertain. 925 mb temps 20-21C south and west of the boundary which will result in temps reaching low-mid 80s, especially across CT and portions of central/W MA which will remain on the warm side of the boundary. Meanwhile, temps will likely fall into the 50s in NE MA with temp forecast uncertainty highest across interior E and SE MA which will be close to the boundary. It is possible temps here warm well into the 70s and possibly lower 80s before the front moves through then falling sharply by late afternoon but this will depend on the timing of the front. Another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms expected Wed afternoon into the evening as another low amplitude shortwave approaches. Environment is fairly similar to today with MLCAPES 500- 1000 J/kg although mid level lapse rates are less favorable. 0-6 km shear is up to 40 kt which is quite favorable for storm organization. Hi-res CAMs do show varying areal coverage of convection developing into the afternoon in the interior then eventually becoming focused near the south coast during Wed night. CSU machine learning probs and Nadocast showing low risk for severe across the interior so can't rule out a few strong to severe storms again with damaging wind the primary threat. HREF severe wind probs are a bit lower tomorrow and focused across CT. KEY MESSAGE 3...Temperatures trend milder western MA/CT and cooler in eastern MA/RI Thurs-Sat, with periods of showers/t-storms mainly focused on Fri. Challenging temperature and rain chances forecast Thurs and Fri as unseasonably warm temperature profiles aloft are met with quasi- zonal mid-level flow with several hard-to-time impulses (some convectively-influenced) moving through the WSW flow. There is also the potential for a backdoor frontal boundary to bring significantly cooler temperatures to at least eastern and northeast MA, but potentially as far westward as central MA and RI. Ended up keeping a rather generic/broad-brush to PoPs, with lesser chances on Thurs and most of the day could be dry. Better chances could exist on Fri with NWP showing a stronger/more-coherent shortwave disturbance moving in. For temps, modified NBM highs Fri and Sat to bring cooler temps (mid 60s to low 70s) along the eastern MA coast to RI/central MA, but highs should end up well into the 70s to lower 80s in western MA/CT under SW winds. Highs are somewhat cooler on Fri with more cloud cover and periods of showers/t-storms, in the 60s to low 70s. By Sat, we become more entrenched in cooler onshore flow with highs in the 50s to mid 60s. The potential exists for large temperature busts given placement of the backdoor frontal boundary. KEY MESSAGE 4...Strong cold frontal passage Sunday ushers in cooler temperatures for early next week. Strong cold front moves in for the latter half of the weekend bringing a risk for showers and thunderstorms for Sunday. Passage of this front will usher in an unseasonably cool airmass (850 mb temps as low as -8C Mon). Expect cool temperatures more typical of early/mid March vs mid-April, with highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s, but blustery conditions will make it feel quite a bit cooler. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. This Afternoon and Tonight...Moderate confidence in areal coverage of TSRA and timing. VFR. A cold front brings hit-and-miss thunderstorms to areas across western New England late this afternoon into the early evening. This could lead to brief MVFR ceilings and IFR visibilities. It bank of low stratus/fog develops off the east coast of MA, which should remain off shore the first half of the night, before inching on shore early Wednesday morning, here flight categories fall to MVFR. SW to S wind today, periodically gusty 15-20 knots. Wind speeds ease overnight, becoming calm in protected areas. Wednesday and Wednesday Night... Moderate Confidence. Becoming VFR. A frontal boundary remains in the vicinity of SNE and have moderate confidence this remains across NE MA. North of the boundary MVFR with winds E to E. South of the boundary VFR and winds are SW. Showers and thunderstorms develop along the boundary between 18z-00z. Overnight becoming IFR to MVFR across most of the region, the only area that could remain low-end VFR is be the lower CT River Valley and points SW. Light southwest wind. KBOS Terminal... Moderate confidence in TAF. Have moderate confidence in the chance of TSRA and lower clouds Wednesday morning. Will have LLWS tonight between 02z-08z. KBDL Terminal... Moderate confidence in TAF. Have moderate confidence in the timing and coverage of TSRA this afternoon/evening. Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/... Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. SCA for outer southern waters through tonight for marginal seas. S- SW winds will gust to 20+ kt at times, shifting to E over NE MA waters during Wed with SW flow persisting over southern waters. Variable winds Wed night less than 20 kt, mostly N-NE over NE MA waters and SW over southern waters. Late night and early morning fog possible. Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/... Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. Saturday through Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. && .CLIMATE... Upcoming record highs: Tue 4/14 Boston 83 in 2023 Hartford 96 in 2023 Providence 87 in 2023 Worcester 90 in 2023 Wed 4/15 Boston 82 in 1896 Hartford 88 in 1941 Providence 82 in 1938 Worcester 85 in 1941 && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ254. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ255-256. && $$ DISCUSSION...KJC/Loconto AVIATION...Dooley MARINE...KJC CLIMATE...Nocera  414 FXUS61 KLWX 141837 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 237 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Monitoring the potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon to evening, mostly in the Potomac Highlands and northern MD. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Near-record April heat through Thursday as elevated fire weather conditions persist through Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Near-record April heat through Thursday as elevated fire weather conditions persist through Saturday. A weak cold front will brush the area this evening, bringing the chance for a few showers and thunderstorms. Latest high res guidance has low coverage, which is expected since greater forcing will remain to our north. Still, the steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient instability could support a strong storm or two capable of producing damaging wind gusts. This is most likely in the Potomac Highlands and northern MD. Some guidance indicates outflow boundaries from convection in PA reaching north/northeast MD this evening. If that happens it could touch off a few additional showers, but confidence for that is low, and any impacts look to be minimal. Near-record April heat and mostly dry conditions are forecast Wednesday and Thursday. Highs will reach the upper 80s to low 90s across the area both days. Humidity will be on the low side, so heat indices are going to be the same (or lower) than air temperatures. Still, those who are sensitive to heat should take steps to avoid heat-related illnesses. There will be showers and thunderstorms in PA tomorrow as another front approaches, but all of the guidance keeps convection north of our area for tomorrow. The next front arrives Thursday night into Friday, but it won't bring any relief from the heat as temps will still be in the 80s Friday. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible early Friday, but rain amounts will be meager at less than 0.10" for any given area. Saturday looks to be the last day of well above normal temps before a stronger cold front arrives. A deep upper-level trough centered over the northern Great Plains will form later this week, and will begin to make its way towards the East Coast by late this weekend. The 12z model runs are currently well aligned on a Sunday timeframe for a strong cold front stemming from this trough to track through the Mid-Atlantic. After several days of near-record temperatures in the 80s and 90s, expect a sharp drop in daily highs once this system moves through, with early model runs suggesting a 10-20 degree overall drop in temperatures between Saturday and Monday. Widespread rainfall is likely to accompany this front; thunderstorm chances also return at this time, with ensemble runs showing some convective signatures and NCAR's AI Convective Hazards forecast currently placing the area under a 15-30% likelihood for convection on Sunday. High pressure moves into the area afterwards, allowing for cooler temperatures to persist for a bit once this system moves offshore. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions are expected to prevail through at least Saturday morning. Breezy conditions possible each afternoon, with south to southwest winds gusting around 20-25 knots for several hours. A few thunderstorms are possible this evening, and again Thursday night into Friday, but coverage and impacts are forecast to be low. && .MARINE... SCA conditions are possible each afternoon through Saturday as southerly channeling produces a few hours of wind gusts around 20 knots. Outside of that, winds remain generally at or below 10 knots. Some thunderstorms will be possible Thursday night into Friday, then again over the weekend as cold fronts track through the area. && .FIRE WEATHER... Elevated fire weather conditions are likely to continue across most of the area through Saturday. Each afternoon will bring well above normal temperatures in the 80s to low 90s, southwest winds gusting around 20-25 mph, and minimum RH values around 25-35 percent. Fire weather SPSs will likely be needed each day, with coordination from local fire partners and surrounding NWS offices to hone in on areas that are most sensitive. The ongoing lack of rain is going to continue to dry fine fuels, with fuel moistures decreasing a bit each successive day. Thursday looks to be the most fire sensitive day due to a combination of RH values around 20-30 percent and wind gust around 20-25 mph in the afternoon. There is the potential for very dry air to mix down to the surface, this could possibly drop RH values below 20 percent in some areas. If these low RH values come to fruition, it is possible we could be close to Red Flag conditions. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday night into Friday, but coverage will be too low for any beneficial wetting rain. A strong cold front is set to cross the area Sunday, with cooler temperatures into next week. However, there is uncertainty regarding whether most of the area sees a wetting rain, it could be limited rainfall from this front. && .CLIMATE... Many daily records are likely to be broken this week, for both high temperatures and warm low temperatures. Some stations could tie or set their all-time high temperature and warm low temperature records for the month of April. April 14 LocationRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW Washington-National (DCA)91F (1960) 65F (2014) Washington-Dulles (IAD) 87F (1960) 63F (2014) Baltimore (BWI) 91F (1941) 65F (2018) Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 90F (1960) 67F (2018) Martinsburg (MRB) 87F (1960) 62F (2014) Charlottesville (CHO) 90F (1945) 67F (1899) Annapolis(NAK) 90F (1941) 65F (1977) Hagerstown (HGR) 86F (2024) 64F (2014) April 15 LocationRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW Washington-National (DCA)89F (1941) 65F (2023) Washington-Dulles (IAD) 87F (1967) 62F (2023) Baltimore (BWI) 88F (1941) 65F (1941) Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 92F (2024) 67F (1960) Martinsburg (MRB) 90F (1941) 63F (1967) Charlottesville (CHO) 92F (2024) 68F (1941) Annapolis(NAK) 91F (1941) 68F (1994) Hagerstown (HGR) 85F (1960) 61F (2023) April 16 LocationRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW Washington-National (DCA)92F (2002) 65F (2017) Washington-Dulles (IAD) 91F (2002) 63F (2017) Baltimore (BWI) 90F (2012) 66F (1941) Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 91F (2012) 65F (2012) Martinsburg (MRB) 90F (2002) 63F (2017) Charlottesville (CHO) 92F (1976) 67F (1941) Annapolis(NAK) 89F (2017) 70F (1994) Hagerstown (HGR) 88F (2002) 62F (2002) April 17 LocationRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW Washington-National (DCA) 95F (2002)65F (2002) Washington-Dulles (IAD) 93F (2002)59F (2024) Baltimore (BWI) 93F (2002)66F (1896) Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 95F (2002)66F (1976) Martinsburg (MRB) 93F (2002)60F (1941) Charlottesville (CHO) 94F (1976)65F (1976) Annapolis(NAK) 90F (1976)68F (1994) Hagerstown (HGR) 90F (2002)64F (2002) All-Time April Record Highs: Washington-National (DCA)95F 4/17/2002, 4/18/1976, 4/23/1960 4/27/1915 Washington-Dulles (IAD) 93F 4/6/2010, 4/17/2002, 4/25/1960 Baltimore (BWI) 94F 4/25/1960, 4/23/1960, 4/20/1941, 4/18/1896 Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 98F 4/26/1990, 4/22/1985 Martinsburg (MRB) 96F 4/21/1941 Charlottesville (CHO) 98F 4/24-25/1925 Annapolis(NAK) 95F 4/20/1941 Hagerstown (HGR) 94F 4/6/2010, 4/18/1976, 4/26/1915 All-Time April Record Warm-Lows: Washington-National (DCA)70F 4/29/2017 Washington-Dulles (IAD) 68F 4/27/2011 Baltimore (BWI) 70F 4/19/1896 Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 76F 4/26/1990 Martinsburg (MRB) 69F 4/19/2025 Charlottesville (CHO) 72F 4/26/1915 Annapolis(NAK) 70F 4/28/1994, 4/16/1994, 4/18/1896 Hagerstown (HGR) 69F 4/27/2009 && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ530>543. && $$ DISCUSSION...KRR/SRT AVIATION...KRR MARINE...KRR  787 FXUS63 KDMX 141840 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 140 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered severe storms (Level 3 of 5) this afternoon and evening. All severe weather hazards remain possible. More widespread storms and locally heavy rainfall expected tonight, especially over the southern half of Iowa, but with a lower severe weather threat overall. - Additional rounds of severe storms and locally heavy rainfall still expected on Wednesday afternoon and evening, and again on Friday afternoon and evening. Details on those events will be fine tuned in subsequent updates. - Warm and breezy today through Friday with highs in the 70s and 80s. Much cooler readings in the 40s and 50s by this weekend, with a hard freeze likely north Saturday night. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 140 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A broad 500 MB trough is moving over the U.S. Rockies today, and is not well coalesced with several vorticity maxima strung out along its loose axis. Ahead of the trough, Iowa remains beneath southwesterly steering flow resulting in, relative to the season, warm and quite humid conditions across the state. A surface low pressure center is slowly developing ahead of the 500 MB trough, near the Colorado/Kansas border, with a nearly stationary front extending northeastward over roughly the northern half of Iowa. Satellite imagery shows agitated cumulus clouds developing along and near the frontal zone, and forecast soundings indicate a weakening EML in place that could break at any time. All CAMs initiate convection and form scattered thunderstorms within the next couple hours, most likely near the front roughly north of I-80. Instability is seasonally strong with SBCAPE in excess of 3000 J/KG south of the boundary, and impressive bulk shear values of 40-60 KT are overspreading the area. Wind profiles do show somewhat unidirectional flow in most of the column so this is nearly all speed shear, which mitigates the tornado threat somewhat. Nevertheless, surface-based convection is likely to initiate very soon and continue into the evening. Tornadoes will be possible in any localized backed flow or storms with deviant motion, most likely near the frontal boundary. In addition, any storms will be capable of large hail given the relatively cool mid-levels, strong speed shear, and impressive instability, and the stronger winds aloft will be easy to transport down to the surface with any cold pools. Thus, all modes of severe weather will be possible with the storms this afternoon and early evening. Later this evening and tonight, a subtle shortwave impulse will eject out of the broader approaching trough and move across northern Missouri and Iowa, in conjunction with a developing nocturnal low- level jet. This will provide the impetus for renewed convection tonight, with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms especially over the southern two thirds or so of Iowa. Several high- res model solutions indicate that the surface frontal boundary will be lingering in our southeastern counties this evening, roughly south of a Creston to Grinnell line, with instability pooling along it and modest convergence providing extra focus for initiation. As a result, these solutions depict stronger thunderstorms developing in that area, with forecast soundings indicating strong instability and deep- layer shear supportive of large hail and damaging wind gusts. This threat should be confined to areas near and south of the boundary, with instability waning rapidly to the north toward central Iowa. On Wednesday the broad trough over the Rockies will kick out eastward into the Midwest, with the associated surface low gradually tightening up and moving northeastward to near the Nebraska/Iowa border by the evening. Within the warm sector ahead of and wrapping into the surface low, instability will likely increase significantly during the day. However, there is considerable uncertainty in convective timing and evolution due to the after-effects of overnight storms tonight. In fact, many 12Z model runs from this morning depict additional redevelopment of elevated storms mid-to-late Wednesday morning, which would carry some threat of large hail per forecast soundings and further complicate the forecast for the afternoon and evening. Even so, the degree of destabilization during the afternoon should support more rigorous development later in the day, and once again strong instability and deep-layer shear may be very supportive of a severe weather threat. This will be particularly true as the surface low and triple point approach from the west late Wednesday afternoon/early evening, with backing flow and boundaries tied into the low supporting some enhancement of the tornado threat. These storms will surge eastward out of our forecast area by late evening, though a few weaker storms may develop later, in association with the main 500 MB trough moving through, around Wednesday night. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 1239 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 On Thursday a weak ridge will move through Iowa, providing a most welcome respite in the form of a dry, mostly sunny, and mild day with highs roughly in the 75-80 degree range and modest breezes. By Thursday night however, an even deeper longitudinal 500 MB trough will be moving into the Rockies, heralding more active weather to end the week. A surface cyclone will develop in the Southern High Plains with a long inverted trough and sharp baroclinic zone extending northeastward across the Midwest. By Friday morning this front will span from central Kansas, across northwestern Iowa, and into western Wisconsin. Destabilization will occur ahead of the front during the day Friday, and by the afternoon CAPE of 1500-2500 J/KG is likely in at least parts of our area, mainly the southern half. Deep-layer shear will be fairly modest and mostly in the form of speed shear, however the strong dynamic forcing ahead of the approaching trough, convergence along the front, and increasing instability will combine with this shear to be more than sufficient to support severe weather potential Friday afternoon and evening, as outlined by SPC outlooks. The storm system will push quickly through Friday night and clear us out, though there may be some light wraparound precipitation in our northern counties lingering into Saturday as the final lobe of the 500 MB trough moves by. With much colder air surging in behind the late Friday front and temperatures expected to fall into the 30s across much of our area by early Saturday, a few flakes of snow cannot be ruled out in northern Iowa but no real accumulation or impact would be expected. Highs on Saturday will be nearly 30 degrees cooler than on Friday, ranging in the mid-40s to mid-50s, then falling even further Saturday night into Sunday morning with lows in the upper 20s to mid-30s across Iowa resulting in a frost/freeze in many areas. The good news is this cooler weather will be short- lived, as a ridging pattern sets up in the first half of next week supporting a gradual warming trend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1236 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Cumulus clouds are developing across much of the area this afternoon and will produce periods of MVFR ceilings in the next few hours, mainly at FOD/MCW/ALO, before rising to VFR. In addition, scattered thunderstorms are forecast this afternoon and evening, then later tonight into Wednesday morning. Confidence in timing and placement is low, but warrants PROB30 groups during the most likely time windows at each terminal. Lowered ceilings and visibilities and gusty winds will be possible in and near any storms. Expect amendments and refinements to the TAFs later today through tonight. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 119 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Multiple rounds of seasonally moderate to heavy rain this week will lead to renewed flooding concerns. Concerns will include possible renewed or additional river flooding as well as flash flooding. Output from the GFS- and NBM-forced medium-range National Water Model (NWM) and the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System (HEFS) suggest the most likely scenario will be moderate to significant within-bank rises on many rivers and streams across the CWA over the next week, especially across the southeast half. Some locations may see minor river flooding as well. These rises will be due to the additive effect of multiple rounds of rainfall. If rainfall is higher than presently forecast then the risk of several locations seeing minor flooding and a few locations seeing moderate flooding will increase. Flash flooding is less of a concern than river flooding, however the risk is nonzero. The additive effect of rain events will result in a slightly higher risk of flash flooding from Friday into Saturday. The most likely scenario through the end of this week will be ponding of water or low-end flash flooding especially in urban areas or areas that receive repeated heavy rainfall over a relatively short time period. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lee LONG TERM...Lee AVIATION...Lee HYDROLOGY...Zogg  190 FXUS63 KDVN 141842 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 142 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe storms are likely (some significant severe possible) through the later afternoon and evening, with highest confidence in coverage along the Highway 20 corridor and lower confidence on the southern extent. We have an Enhanced (level 3/5) Risk for Severe Weather for our north, and Slight Risk (level 2/5) south. - Widespread showers and storms are expected Wednesday, with multiple rounds possible. Severe weather will be possible again, especially in the afternoon and evening. SPC highlighted the whole area in a Slight Risk (level 2/5) for severe weather. - A stronger surface low and cold front will work through the region on Friday, bringing along another potential bout of severe weather. SPC currently has much of our area in an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) for severe weather. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 An active forecast lies ahead, with current SPC outlooks highlighting areas along/north of Interstate 80 in an Enhanced (level 3/5) Risk for severe weather, with a Slight Risk (level 2/5) south. Features that we are watching as potential points for convective initiation will be subtle outflow boundaries over the area, resulting from overnight convection. Also, we will have a stationary boundary draped over/near our northern counties along Highway 20. This stationary boundary will be the area of most concern, as it will provide the necessary surface forcing for convective initiation. Further, we will see the LLJ increase in magnitude later this afternoon and through the evening, converging near that boundary. Thus, there will be plenty of forcing in our north for thunderstorm potential. We are looking at the potential for discrete supercell storms, where coverage may increase in the evening hours owing to the strengthening LLJ. Below, we will dive into timing and environmental details. The main forecast challenge lies with the location and timing of convection, owing to the cap in place over the area. Best chances to see storms this afternoon/evening will be along and north of the Highway 20 corridor, where we will see the best forcing to overcome the cap. Although, our whole outlook is highlighted for severe weather for a reason. Even though areas south of the Highway 20 corridor are capped, there are ways in which we can break through that cap. Looking at 12z CAMs, the cap does seem to be a little weaker than initially forecast, where some CAMs are starting to hint at late afternoon storms developing farther south than the Highway 20 corridor. Further, the latest runs of the HRRR and other high-res CAMs are starting to indicate more coverage of potential supercells, especially closer to the I-80 corridor. This is generally showing the possibility of a broken line of supercells moving west to east from mid-afternoon and through the evening. Thus, mesoscale analysis through the afternoon will be crucial, closely monitoring the extent of surface heating, moisture, along with any sources of mesoscale lift. As was mentioned, an outflow boundary from the morning convection can be in play. This has generally set up along the Interstate 80 corridor this morning, which may be a potential source of forcing necessary. This feature has become more diffuse, but still may serve as a point for initiation, especially with a strengthening LLJ. Timing wise, we are generally looking at the potential for storms to develop as early as 3PM and the severe threat lasting until around 10PM. Storms are expected to move west- east through the evening. Now, let's dive into the environment that we have in place. As was mentioned, initiation will largely be conditional on surface forcing, with best forcing in our north along the stationary front. Along and south of that boundary, the open warm sector is primed for severe convection, with the cap being the limiting factor. We will see deep layer shear around 45-55 KTs. This will couple with instability around 2500-3500+ CAPE, favorable for organized strong/severe convection. The environment is favoring supercell thunderstorms as the main convective mode. The decreased upper level support should help keep these more discrete at least through the afternoon, with a strengthening LLJ late in the afternoon increasing coverage. This CAPE profile is also quite large in the hail growth layer, with midlevel lapse rates of 7.5-8.5 C/km favoring large hail potential, with some very large hail possible. This increased hail potential has been noted by the SPC. Otherwise, while the deep layer shear is moderate-high, much of this will be seen in the lowest 3km, where the best curvature in model hodographs are seen. Thus, strong LLVL shear will also be favorable for tornadoes as well, some of which could be stronger and longer lived. In the end, all hazards are in play, with hail and tornadoes being the primary threat. A quick look at our 18z sounding would indicate higher instability is in place, with CAPE around 4000+, along with shear nearing 50 KTs. Thus, a supercell environment is in place. Along with that, our lapse rates are around 9.5 just above the cap, which is more than favorable for severe hail, some of which may be significantly severe. Now, as was forecast, a cap does remain in place. Although, it is not a strong cap, with CIN sitting around -50. Any further heating and mesoscale forcing should be able to overcome this cap. This has been hinted in latest runs in CAMs, showing an increased coverage of storms later this afternoon and evening. Tonight, we will continue to see the potential for showers/storms as the LLJ remains overhead and better forcing aloft moves in. Cloud cover will remain through the night, moderating temperatures in the 60s. While the overall severe threat will be lower overnight, some guidance hints at some wind/hail potential, but confidence is low. Tomorrow, we will see another chance for severe weather, with a Slight Risk (level 2/5) for the whole area. A similar environment will be in place tomorrow, but a little less on the instability owing to more cloud cover. Although, it will remain sufficient for convection. The main difference tomorrow will be the surface low and associated cold front passing through. Thus, plenty of surface forcing and better upper level support moving in. With such forcing in play, we are expecting more coverage of storms, especially in the afternoon and evening hours. Storm mode looks to be mixed, with initial supercells eventually growing upscale into line segments, with the main line of convection coming with the cold front that evening/night. Overall, with such forcing, the radar presentation tomorrow may look quite messy through the day. Showers/Storms may be possible through the day, but the better severe threat seems to be the afternoon and evening. All hazards will be in play, but hail and wind seem to be the primary threats at this time. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Upper wave that brought impacts to the area on Wednesday will have since pushed east of the area on Thursday, with weak upper ridging moving in. With this, we will see a surface high pass through the area, resulting in a quiet weather day. We should be geared to have quite a pleasant day, with temperatures increasing into the 70s, a westerly breeze, and decreasing cloud cover. This break of quiet weather will be short-lived though, as Thursday night into Friday, strong southwesterly flow sets up ahead of the next shortwave trough. Strong vort max will approach the area Friday afternoon and evening, with a surface low dragging a seasonally strong cold front through the area. Thus, plenty of forcing in play for storms. A brief look at the environment would indicate sufficient shear and instability in place ahead of the front, favorable for organized convection, some of which could be strong to severe. Environment would be favorable for supercell thunderstorms being the initial storm mode, which may be discrete. Although, as the day goes on and the strongest part of the LLJ core moves in ahead of the cold front, upscale growth is likely. This would lead to a QLCS event for the late afternoon and evening on Friday, where all hazards will be possible. Will refrain from further details, as much can change between now and then. SPC also has their eyes on this system, highlighting much of our area in a 15% or 30% risk for severe weather, which equates to a Slight/Enhanced Risk (level 2/3 of 5) for severe weather. A look ahead to the upcoming weekend shows a drier pattern developing for Saturday and Sunday as upper-level ridging develops to the west. A cold front should bring notably cooler and more seasonal temperatures to the area on the heels of strong, gusty northwest winds. This could bring our first bout of frost/freeze conditions during this growing season, possibly Saturday night, though winds may stay up to limit this to just a freeze potential for parts of the area, while Sunday night could bring about more widespread freeze and frost with lighter winds as high pressure builds in. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1234 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 MVFR ceilings will occur at all sites through the early afternoon. Thunderstorms are possible between 21 and 03 UTC mainly impacting KCID and KDBQ but confidence remains low on the exact location so used a prob30 at both locations with MVFR conditions expected with any storms. Another round of thunderstorms is possible at KCID, KBRL and KMLI after 06 UTC and and used a prob30 at both locations to account for that. Winds will be south to southwesterly through the period with speeds of 10 to 20 knots and gusts up to 25 to 30 knots this afternoon into the early evening. Winds will diminish after 00 UTC Wednesday. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gunkel LONG TERM...Gunkel/McClure AVIATION...Cousins  051 FXUS66 KMTR 141843 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1143 AM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1216 AM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Slightly cooler to near normal temperatures continue through Thursday - Periods of gusty winds, especially at higher elevations Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning - Warmer temperatures return Friday and Saturday - Confidence is increasing for widespread beneficial rain beginning Sunday into the beginning of next week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1216 AM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 (Today and tonight) The upper level low that brought beneficial rainfall the past few days has exited east with lingering low clouds overnight from the SF Peninsula south into Monterey and the Salinas Valley, and farther inland over the interior mountains of San Benito County. Low clouds will linger across the Bay Area and Central Coast through mid- morning today as a drier mid-level airmass filters in across our area under shortwave ridging aloft, with mostly sunny skies in the afternoon into the evening hours. High temperatures will begin their gradual increase through midweek today, with only slight increases from Mondays highs. Tonight into Wednesday morning will still be on the chilly side of normal with mostly clear skies, relatively light winds, and more efficient radiational cooling. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1216 AM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 (Wednesday through Monday) Temperatures on Wednesday will be similar or slightly higher on the backside of the progressive shortwave ridging. By Wednesday afternoon, onshore flow will increase out ahead of a sharpening trough that will bring gusty winds and a slight chance of rain across northern portions of the North Bay. The better fetch of onshore flow out ahead of the upper trough and associated surface boundary will be short lived but will produce more widespread cloud cover during the day and evening hours. Onshore flow will quickly transition to north/northeast offshore flow overnight into Thursday in the wake of the progressive upper trough. The gusty winds during the day Thursday, especially above 1000ft are not expected to exceed 40 MPH with little impacts. Winds ease Friday, while a still progressive but high amplitude ridge moves onshore producing a more notable jump in temperatures Friday and Saturday to slightly above normal for most locations. The active, progressive longwave pattern continues by the end of the weekend into the beginning of next week with an increasing signal for another round of widespread beneficial rainfall. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1144 AM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Low level lift and ample moisture led to a strato-cu kinda day. Onshore flow and persistent cloud feed from the Pacific will keep a mix of MVFR (2000-3000 FT CIGS) to VFR through the 19-20Z time period. It will take some time, but do expect mostly VFR this afternoon with a few lingering CU. Tonight will be lower conf given lingering low moisture increasing high level clouds. For STS/APC did not include dense fog like this AM....thinking increasing high clouds will limit radiational cooling (10-20% chc). For the Wed AM rush do have some MVFR CIGS returning 1500-2500 FT. Winds are forecast to increase throughout the day into the evening before tapering down through the night. HAF is an exception as it will maintain moderate winds with some embedded gusts through the TAF period due to its close proximity to the coastline. Vicinity of SFO...Strato-cu is slow to mix out. Trending later in the 19-20Z block for the Bay. Do expect an uptick with onshore winds this afternoon with better clearing. Gusts 20-25 kt. SFO Bridge Approach...Solid deck of strato-cu. May clear a little later than SFO terminal. Monterey Bay Terminals...Gradual thinning of strato-cu with similar clearing in the 19-20Z. Onshore flow will bring some MVFR cigs back again tonight. && .MARINE... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 1059 AM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 High pressure off the California coast will maintain moderate to fresh northerly breezes over the coastal waters today. Locally stronger gusts will occur near Point Reyes and Point Sur regions. A cold front will increase winds to near gale force late Wednesday or early Thursday, building rough seas. Winds and seas ease into the weekend, but build again into the next work week with some chances for rain. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Wednesday to 3 AM PDT Thursday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Wednesday to 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM....JM AVIATION...MM/AN MARINE...MM Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  091 FXUS62 KRAH 141846 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 246 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 225 PM Tuesday... * None at this time. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 245 PM Tuesday... 1) Dry fuels combined with lower humidity and near record heat will promote fire weather concerns through the weekend. 2) An early-season heat wave will result in near record high temperatures from Wednesday through Saturday. 3) A late-weekend pattern transition is expected with a cold frontal passage. Low-end rain chances are expected on Sunday, followed by much cooler temperatures early next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 245 PM Tuesday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry fuels combined with lower humidity and near record heat will promote fire weather concerns through the weekend. The anomalous mid-level ridge will amplify along the eastern seaboard through the end of the week. Associated subsidence over the southeast will promote continued dry conditions at least through Saturday. Precipitation as a percentage of normal over the past 30 days is as low as 5 to 25% for portions of our area worsening the elevated drought conditions. As such, fuels have been anomalously dry for some time. Winds will remain light Wednesday through Saturday, but with temperatures increasing into the lower to mid 90s, along with fairly deep mixing heights (and decreasing PWAT), RH should dip into the mid to upper 20 percent range each afternoon. A little bump in gustiness may be possible Thursday afternoon with the passage of a dry short-wave and again on Sunday ahead of and behind a cold front. Overall though, meteorological conditions (combined RH and wind) should largely remain sub-IFD criteria. However, given persistent dry fuels, near record temps, and poor overnight recovery for much of central NC, the NC Forest Service may request additional IFDs for portions of central NC to help with messaging their current state- wide burn ban. KEY MESSAGE 2... An early-season heat wave will result in near record high temperatures from Wednesday through Saturday. Anomalously strong subtropical ridging will persist over the Southeast US for much of the period from Wednesday through Saturday, other than a brief dry shortwave passage on Friday. At the surface, a Bermuda High will bring warm southwesterly flow to central NC during this time. 1000-850 mb thicknesses are modeled to be around the 95th percentile for this time of year, and forecast maximum and minimum temperatures get close to or reach record highs each day. Mostly lower-90s for highs and lower-to-mid-60s for lows are expected, which is around 15-20 degrees above normal. Can't rule out some mid-90s on Saturday, which looks to be the hottest day. For reference, this would get close to the hottest temperatures ever recorded any day in the month of April. See the climate section below for more details. Fortunately, humidity looks tolerable, with dew points mostly bottoming out in the lower-to-mid-50s each day, perhaps even some 40s especially in the west. So heat indices will be about 2-4 degrees cooler than the actual air temperatures each day. Still, several days of highs in the lower-90s could result in heat stress for sensitive individuals and those working and exercising outdoors. KEY MESSAGE 3... A late-weekend pattern transition is expected with a cold frontal passage. Low-end rain chances are expected on Sunday, followed by much cooler temperatures early next week. A broad mid/upper trough will advance into the Eastern US from the Plains this weekend. An associated cold front will move across central NC on Sunday. This may result in showers and isolated storms, but at this time both the GFS and ECMWF and most of their ensembles move it through too early in the day for much instability to develop (a few hundred J/kg of CAPE at most). This combined with the best forcing and moisture from the trough focused to our north mean rainfall amounts look light, with ensemble means only a tenth of an inch or less. So there will be very little if any relief from the drought. It will turn significantly cooler on Monday and Tuesday with below-normal temperatures (highs mainly in the upper-60s to lower-70s, lows in the 40s). && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... As of 104 PM Tuesday... VFR conditions will persist through the 24 hr TAF period. Sswly sfc flow will remain light this afternoon, with a few gusts of up to 20 kts possible at KFAY/KRWI this afternoon. Similar light sswly sfc flow is expected Wednesday. Outlook: Sub-tropical high pressure will favor warm, dry, and VFR conditions in cntl NC through Sat. A cold front will bring a low-end chance of showers to central NC on Sunday. && .CLIMATE... All-Time Records for April KGSO: 95 on 4/28/1915 KRDU: 95 on 4/23/1980 and 4/28/1896 KFAY: 96 on 4/12/1930 Record High Temperatures: April 14: KGSO: 90/1922 KRDU: 91/1941 KFAY: 93/1922 April 15: KGSO: 90/2006 KRDU: 92/1941 KFAY: 95/2006 April 16: KGSO: 88/2002 KRDU: 92/1941 KFAY: 94/2006 April 17: KGSO: 90/1967 KRDU: 93/1896 KFAY: 92/1941 April 18: KGSO: 90/1976 KRDU: 95/1896 KFAY: 93/1941 April 19: KFAY: 94/1941 Record High Minimum Temperatures: April 15: KGSO: 65/2006 KRDU: 64/1993 April 16: KGSO: 66/2006 KRDU: 64/1912 KFAY: 69/1934 April 17: KGSO: 63/2002 KRDU: 67/1896 KFAY: 66/1921 April 18: KGSO: 66/1909 KRDU: 63/1941 KFAY: 67/2002 April 19: KRDU: 67/1896 KFAY: 67/2002 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Luchetti/Danco/Badgett AVIATION...Luchetti/Badgett CLIMATE...RAH  588 FXUS63 KMPX 141846 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 146 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few thunderstorms possible in southern Minnesota from late afternoon to evening. Most storms stay to the southeast in northeast Iowa and southern Wisconsin. - Isolated showers possible Wednesday, becoming more likely in southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin Wednesday night. - Another larger system arrives Friday and lingers into Saturday. Initial thunderstorms could be strong to severe, with cooler temperatures on the western side of the system bringing a chance for a wintry mix of rain/snow into Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A broad line of weak showers that have mostly resulted in virga is stretched across south-central Minnesota from Marshall through the northern Metro, with pockets of clearing amidst what is otherwise mostly cloudy skies this afternoon. Satellite imagery shows some agitated cumulus clouds along a warm front from central to northeastern Iowa which is expected to be the focus for another round of severe weather later today. Unlike yesterday, the warm front is not going to make it to Minnesota except for perhaps the far southeastern corner, with our environment less favorable due to northerly winds and weak subsidence stemming from the backing wind profile. The only way we see a few storms this far north would be storms forming in north-central Iowa and progressing northwards, rather than forming in our area and moving out. HRRR forecast soundings from Albert Lea around 21z closest to the warm front (for our area) show meager few hundreds of J/KG SBCAPE with a lack of a defined mixed layer, with low level shear in the single digits. Much like yesterday, we do have some upper level shear thanks to increasing winds aloft, however this is in direct competition with the northerly cooling/drying winds in the lower levels. Lapse rates are less favorable than yesterday coinciding with the weaker instability, on the order of around 7 degrees/km from 850-500mb. Overall, the environment is significantly less favorable for our area than yesterday thanks to the position of the warm front and competing forcings over us, resulting in a much lower chance for both strength and frequency of storms. Patchy dense fog is once again possible overnight, however should be less in terms of both coverage and peak intensity compared to this morning thanks to slightly stronger surface winds and stronger radiational cooling needed to produce the truly dense fog, which seems less likely given persistent lower level cloud cover overnight. Weak rain chances linger in southern Minnesota tomorrow into Thursday stemming from a quick moving shortwave trough sliding west to east across the area, however lack of a surface response and therefore limited moisture advection means we likely miss any showers for the majority of the area. Thursday looks to be the best overall day for outdoor activities this week with temperatures in the 70s and partly to mostly sunny skies ahead of our next system incoming on Friday. Speaking of which, an upper level trough spanning most of the western American Rockies will spin up a surface low over Colorado by early Friday morning, ejecting into the plains before tracking towards Iowa and southern Minnesota. There are still some pretty significant wobbles possible within the track, however the current consensus would bring the broad surface low directly towards our CWA, resulting in lower level warm air and moisture advection northwards Friday morning. This will enhance instability and chances for thunderstorms, and we could end up seeing some severe weather given the strong forcing from the synoptic scale features as long as they end up phasing with the surface low. The lingering uncertainty is due to the track of the low as well as how broad it ends up being, with a broader low resulting in weaker forcing and an overall less favorable environment, so we will be watching the next few days of model runs closely to see how things evolve over time. The best chance for storms looks to be along and just ahead of the surface low, timing wise mid morning to evening Friday. Most guidance attempts to eject the surface low towards northern Lake Superior, which would then wrap cooler central Canadian air back towards the region and could even introduce a wintry mix of rain/snow as temperatures rapidly cool behind the cold front Friday night into Saturday. Surface temperatures overnight look to drop to near freezing but rebound back into at least the 40s on Saturday/Sunday, meaning any wintry mix would be melting during the day and does not look to stick. Based off the longer range outlook, this would look to be our last flakes of the season with temperatures near normal through the end of the month on the GEFS/EPS. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1238 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Low stratus continues to push east, allowing for sites to gradually clear out as the afternoon progresses. SCT coverage is expected from late this afternoon through this evening, then another round of fog/low stratus is expected overnight through daybreak Wednesday morning. Conditions expected to drop to IFR for central-eastern MN through western WI, potentially into LIFR/VLIFR around sunrise. Conditions will then gradually improve through the late morning hours to VFR by late morning to early afternoon. Light NW winds will drop to light/variable, if not calm, overnight which will aid in fog development. KMSP...VFR to start and remain as such into the early morning hours before conditions become degraded due to fog and low stratus. Ceilings expected to drop to around 600', and potentially as low as 200' around sunrise. Improvement expected from late morning onward and eventually back to VFR by Wednesday afternoon. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR. Wind SE 5-10kts. FRI...MVFR/SHRA likely, chance -TSRA. Wind SE to SW 10-15G25kts. SAT...MVFR ceilings. Chance IFR/-RASN. Wind NW 15G25-30kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TDH AVIATION...JPC  182 FXUS65 KGGW 141849 AFDGGW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 1249 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Below normal temperatures and mixed precipitation Thursday and Friday with gusty NW winds in the afternoons. - Rain mainly Wednesday night and Thursday with snow mainly Thursday. - Snow amount could be advisory criteria most of Phillips, northern Valley and Daniels counties. && .DISCUSSION... WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Surface low pressure over the southern Prairie provinces will remain to our north through Wednesday morning. An upper trough dropping into the Pacific Northwest will help to redevelop the surface low over central/eastern Montana Wednesday evening. this will allow colder air to drop into Montana while a moisture stream punches northeast through Montana. Rainfall is expected to begin over the NW zones Wednesday evening with snow beginning over the NW zones Thursday morning then the north-central zones Thursday afternoon. The deterministic models were wetter with this latest run and thus slightly higher snow totals. Advisory snowfall is possible across most of Phillips, northern Valley and Daniels counties. System moves out Thursday night with QPF footprints over southern Sask and SE Montana. Temps Thursday night drop into the teens north, low 20s south, about 15 degrees below normal. Surface high will lock in the cold over the area Friday with high temps only reaching the 30s to low 40s, possibly only upper 20s near spots along the Canadian border. Surface high drops to our south while upper ridge moves in for Saturday. Temps should rebound into the 40s east to the 50s west (for highs). The warming trend continues into Sunday with highs mainly in the 60s. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: NBM deviations include: - Increased winds Thursday and Thursday evening - Lowered temps Thursday Confidence in 2 inch snowfall is increasing but remains at Moderate at best. TFJ && .AVIATION... LAST UPDATE: 1850Z FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR DISCUSSION: Scattered VFR clouds with light winds are expected through Wednesday. The next system moves in Wednesday night with lowering clouds and some rain, mainly at KGGW and KOLF. TFJ && .GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow  274 FXUS61 KBUF 141849 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 249 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes have been made with this update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Warm with rounds of showers and thunderstorms through much of the week. 2) Marginal risk for isolated severe thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall through Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Warm with rounds of showers and thunderstorms through much of the week. Broad ridging will remain in place across the eastern CONUS through the end of the week...with a parade of shortwave impulses (some convectively-enhanced) rippling northeastward along the periphery this ridge and across our region. In the process...these features and their associated weak to modest surface lows will track northeastward along a persistent frontal zone draped across the Great Lakes and Northeast...causing this boundary to waver north and south while also generating frequent rounds of showers and scattered thunderstorms. Digging more into the forecast details...the first in the series of these waves is now in the process of Southern Ontario...with the last of its initial round of convection now in the process of crossing the North Country. As we push through the afternoon and the attendant surface low pushes east into the Saint Lawrence Valley... it will swing its trailing cold front southeastward across our area. Coupled with convergence along a lake breeze boundary setting up to the lee of Lake Erie and diurnal heating...this will likely lead to another round of convection from the Southern Tier northeastward across the Finger Lakes and into central New York...while further north the stabilizing flow off the cooler waters of Lakes Erie and Ontario should lead to a much lower chance of storms across the lake plains. This next round of convection should then die out fairly quickly early this evening with the loss of heating/departure of the cold front and collapse of the lake breeze boundary...with a relative lull then following for the balance of the evening. Overnight and Wednesday we'll get to do things all over again as yet another convectively enhanced shortwave and surface low/attendant warm frontal segment makes its way across the central Great Lakes and southern Ontario. This will bring another round of fairly widespread warm-frontal showers and scattered thunderstorms that will cross our region from west to east between later tonight and the first part of Wednesday morning. Following the passage of these we can expect another relative lull between the mid morning and early afternoon hours...before the trailing cold front/developing lake breeze boundaries/diurnal destabilization lead to another round of showers/scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon...with the greatest convective potential again likely to lie across areas inland from lake breeze boundaries. Wednesday night through Thursday night it'll be more of the same as a stronger mid-level shortwave trough and surface low will track from the Upper Midwest to southern Ontario, then into New England... resulting in yet another warm frontal/cold frontal passage with each of these features accompanied by additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms. By Friday...the guidance diverges some with how quickly this system departs...with it possible that at least some showers/a few storms could linger into at least part of Friday... especially across eastern portions of the area. KEY MESSAGE 2...Marginal risk for isolated severe thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall through Wednesday. Numerous rounds of showers and thunderstorms will cross our region through Wednesday, with a few of these rounds potentially bringing a risk of isolated strong wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall. The next of these should affect areas primarily from the southern Tier northeastward across the Finger Lakes into central New York... along and ahead of an advancing weak cold front and to the lee of more stable lake shadows off both lakes. Within this area... developing weak to moderate surface-based instability and strong/ largely unidriectional flow aloft may support a low risk for some isolated strong wind gusts. This round of convection and any severe risk will end by early this evening with the departure of the cold front/collapse of any lake breeze boundaries and diminishing instability. Later tonight and Wednesday morning...the next convectively-enhanced shortwave/surface low and warm frontal segment will approach and cross our area from west to east along with another round of widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms. While not at a favorable time of day...a few of the above storms could still pose a risk of locally strong wind gusts if any bowing segments from upstream manage to persist as these cross our region. In the wake of this round of convection...diurnal heating should again allow weak to moderate instability to develop inland from developing lake shadows...with the associated lake breeze boundaries and the approach of yet another weak cold front combining with this to yield yet another round of showers/storms during the afternoon. The greatest coverage of these will again likely lie from the Southern Tier across the Finger Lakes...with a strong and mostly unidirectional flow aloft again supporting a risk for mainly isolated strong/damaging wind gusts. This said...low level shear will be a bit greater than today and may support a low...but also nonzero risk of an isolated tornado across the Southern Tier...where available instability looks to be the greatest. Finally...PWATs will be in the 1.25-1.50 inch range at points. While a continued fast flow aloft should help to keep any storms moving along and any flooding risk on the lower side...any training of storms could result in a localized flash flood risk should the latter develop. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across the area today, with brief heavy downpours at times as well. CIGs/VSBY to IFR and possibly LIFR at times within heavier showers/storms. Thunderstorms will have the potential to produce gusty winds and hail at times through the evening. Outside of showers/storms mainly VFR or higher end MVFR for the afternoon hours. Tonight, scattered showers and thunderstorm potential will continue through the evening. A batch of showers and thunderstorms will move through the area during the second half of the night. Moderate to at times heavy downpours will be possible with any showers/storm. Flight conditions through the evening and early overnight mainly in the higher end MVFR to VFR is expected. Flight categories will lower to IFR and at times LIFR will be possible with the steadier showers/storms during the second half of the night. Again, any storms could produce some gusty winds and locally heavier downpours at times. Outlook... Wednesday through Thursday night...VFR/MVFR with some local IFR at times. Numerous rounds of showers and scattered thunderstorms. Friday...VFR/MVFR with showers possible. Saturday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers later in the afternoon. Sunday...A mixture of MVFR/IFR with rain showers mixing with and changing to snow through the day. && .MARINE... SCA-level conditions across eastern Lake Erie...the Niagara River...and western Lake Ontario will diminish quickly late this afternoon and early evening as the pressure gradient across our region weakens. Rounds of showers and scattered thunderstorms will cross the lower Great Lakes today through Thursday. A few storms may produce locally higher winds and waves along with lightning strikes. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020- 040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for LOZ030-042. && $$ DISCUSSION...JJR AVIATION...SW MARINE...JJR  806 FXUS64 KMAF 141849 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 149 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 124 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Low to medium shower and thunderstorm chances (10-40%) today across the Permian Basin and Lower Trans-Pecos. Damaging winds and large hail remain the primary hazards for the strongest storms. - Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected across southeast New Mexico, the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains, and portions of far west Texas through Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Wednesday night) Issued at 124 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Isolated thunderstorms along a dryline cutting north-south across the central Permian Basin will develop over the next few hours and progress eastward by this evening. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main hazards that the strongest storms will be capable of producing. Storms will decay after sunset tonight and much of the area should see mainly clear conditions. A High Wind Warning continues for the Guadalupe Mountains where strong winds are expected through the early evening. A Wind Advisory also continues for the Eddy County Plains where gusty winds are expected. Localized areas of blowing dust may sharply reduce visibilities. Winds decrease by tonight. The aforementioned dryline retreats to the west tonight and keeps areas east of the TX/NM border in the upper 50s to low 60s. To the west, drier air allows for more efficient cooling and some spots dip into the upper 40s. For Wednesday, another warm day is expected with areawide temperatures reaching into the 80s. Big Bend will be the hot spot with highs in the 90s, particularly across the low desert. Isolated storms will once again be possible over the eastern most reaches of the CWA, generally east of a line from Big Spring south into eastern Pecos County. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 124 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Heading into Wednesday night, any afternoon convection from earlier that day should decay or move off to the east of the area. Drier air filters in and much of the area ends up several degrees cooler compared to the night before with many in the 50s to upper 40s. Low (10-20%) rain chances exist for the eastern Permian Basin and down towards Terrell County both Thursday and Friday afternoons. Both days will see highs reaching into the 80s to low 90s. At the same time, low RHs and increasing winds to the west of Midland/Odessa, will lead to critical fire weather conditions. A cold front is pushed through the area late Friday and into Saturday bringing temperatures below normal for Saturday. Another disturbance looks to move through on Sunday bringing cloudy and rainy conditions to areas mainly south of I-20. Rain amounts look to be low, but stay tuned to changes in the forecast. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions prevail at most sites through the period. Breezy southwest winds are expected this afternoon, tapering down during the evening. Strongest winds will be at HOB and CNM (occasional gusts between 30-40 kts). Isolated showers and storms develop later this afternoon, heading eastward through the evening hours. Best (~30%) rain chances lie over MAF and FST. Have included a PROB30 at FST, holding of on MAF at the moment. Amendments shall be made as necessary. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 124 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A Rangeland Fire Danger Statement continues this afternoon for areas across southeast New Mexico and adjacent West Texas counties. Similar areas will be monitored for future RFDs through Thursday as similar conditions (elevated winds, minRHs below 15%, and dry fuels) are expected each afternoon. The focus shifts to Friday as a larger area of critical RHs, increased winds, and dry fuels will be assessed for a future Fire Weather Watch. An upper level disturbance makes its way into the region early Friday increasing winds and bringing a front to the area later that day and into evening. Recent rains and better RHs have improved the fuel landscape in Texas, but areas in southeast New Mexico have seen less rain and will see critically dry conditions through the rest of this week. A cold front moves through the region late Friday and into Saturday that will shift from the west and southwest to northerly. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 62 86 54 88 / 30 20 0 10 Carlsbad 55 82 48 87 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 64 87 61 87 / 30 20 10 10 Fort Stockton 62 86 56 89 / 20 10 0 10 Guadalupe Pass 52 72 51 77 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 54 81 48 86 / 10 0 0 0 Marfa 48 78 44 83 / 10 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 62 85 55 87 / 30 10 0 10 Odessa 62 84 55 86 / 30 10 0 10 Wink 59 85 50 89 / 20 10 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Wind Warning until 11 PM CDT /10 PM MDT/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. NM...High Wind Warning until 10 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County. Wind Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for Eddy County Plains. && $$ SHORT TERM...93 LONG TERM....93 AVIATION...95  143 FXUS63 KJKL 141849 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 249 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures should average 15 or more degrees above normal through the end of the week. Record or near record high temperatures are forecast Wednesday, Friday, and Saturday. - A passing disturbance could result in isolated showers or a stray storm through early this evening across northern and eastern portions of the area. - Additional showers/storms are forecast Thursday and Thursday night with a passing disturbance, with potentially greater chances this weekend with a cold front. && .UPDATE... Issued at 155 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2026 Hourly grids, mainly temperatures, dewpoints, and winds, were freshened up based on recent observations and trends. A few showers were moving across the southeastern portions of the area at this time. Some of the convective allowing models have redevelopment of showers with perhaps a storm for northeastern and eastern sections of the area during the afternoon to early evening. The previous pops had this scenario covered so no changes to pops were made at this time. UPDATE Issued at 648 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2026 Minor updates were made to Sky grids and hourly temperatures in the very near term. Otherwise, there are no significant changes to the forecast. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 301 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2026 An active jet stream and storm track resides from northwestern Mexico northeast through the Midwest into the Great Lakes region through the period, with strong ridging through all layers of the atmosphere centered over the far southeastern CONUS and adjacent western Atlantic waters. Models depict an increase in moisture and instability impinging on northern and western counties early this morning and lasting into afternoon. This appears to be due to a passing disturbance crossing the southern Great Lakes region increasing the low-level jet across central and northeastern Kentucky, but the GFS does indicate a theta- e gradient extending from the Lower Tennessee Valley northeast into southwestern and central Ohio through 12z-15z this morning. While the vast majority of models keep eastern Kentucky dry, the GFS in particular does indicate a bit of isentropic lift along this boundary this morning which could result in shower activity forming upstream as early as this morning and then moving into the area later this morning into early afternoon. Will thus carry low PoPs across primarily western and northern areas through the afternoon today. It does bear mentioning that as of 07z this morning cloud tops are currently cooling where the GFS progs the weak isentropic lift to be currently. Models depict another theta-e gradient moving from central Tennessee north into central Kentucky this evening into the overnight. This will be the leading edge of a drier low-level air mass, and models suggest isentropic descent along this boundary, at least for the evening period, indicating subsidence. Will thus expect increased ridge-valley splits and clearer skies compared to this morning. For Wednesday, a passing disturbance well north and west of eastern Kentucky will push increasing warm advection and southwesterly flow across the area, with weak isentropic upglide again likely serving as a trigger for any showers and thunderstorms during the day Wednesday. However, these appear to stay northwest of our area, so will keep the forecast dry but with highest PoPs north of Interstate 64. Will thus expect another very warm day in the 80s across the forecast area, with a few 90-degree readings possible in the Big Sandy Basin where a southerly component to the low-level flow will promote some increased downslope warming. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 249 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2026 The long term period opens Thursday with a shortwave over the Mid- Mississippi Valley and Upper Great Lakes. As this system lifts northeast throughout Thursday shower and thunderstorm chances increase heading into the late afternoon and early evening. Southwesterly winds and warm air advection allow for temperatures to warm into the 80s through the afternoon, some 10-15 degrees above normal. As showers taper off heading into Friday morning, temperatures cool into the low to mid 50s in valleys, and low 60s along ridge tops. A ridge of high pressure briefly builds over the area ahead of a deepening trough over the Rockies and Northern Plains. Relatively quiet weather is expected, with a mix of sun and clouds, and temperatures warming into the 80s. Because of the approaching system, clouds begin to increase overnight and through Saturday. Low temperatures Friday night cool into the 50s and low 60s. Saturday, the upper level trough will be over the Upper Great Lakes, with a warm front extending through the Great Lakes into the Mid- Atlantic, while a trailing cold front will extend through the Upper MidWest, the Mid and Lower Mississippi valleys, with showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of it. Shower and storm chances will increase over Eastern Kentucky from northwest to southeast through the afternoon into the evening and overnight hours. Showers and storms are then expected to taper off from northwest to southeast through Sunday. Temperatures Saturday, ahead of the cold front, will warm into mid to upper 80s for most, under southwesterly winds. At night, with winds becoming west to northwesterly, cold air advecting in behind the cold front will cool temperatures into the mid to upper 40s. Sunday, as remaining showers taper off, the cold front is modeled southeast of the area. Temperatures will be much cooler across the area, some 20-25 degrees cooler in fact, ranging in the low to mid 60s. Clouds should diminish through the afternoon as the trough begins to depart the area. However, Eastern Kentucky looks to be on the backside of the trough heading into Sunday night. With cold air still advecting in under light northwesterly winds and clearing skies, temperatures are expected to drop into the mid to upper 30s in the valleys and lower 40s elsewhere. High rises look to occur Monday, leading to mostly sunny skies, and highs in the low to mid 60s. Temperatures remain depressed under northwesterly winds. At night, temperatures cool into the upper 30s to near 40. Tuesday, a shortwave looks to skirt through the Upper Great Lakes and its main effects should remain north of the area. conditions will feature a mix of sun and clouds under southerly winds and seasonable temperatures warming into the low 70s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2026 VFR conditions prevailed at TAF issuance and should prevail through the period. The region will remain in the warm sector between a sfc ridge of high pressure extending from the Southeast to the western Atlantic and a frontal zone from New England across the Great Lakes and into the Plains. Meanwhile, upper level ridging should remain from the eastern Gulf into the southeast and parts of the Atlantic while the axis of an upper trough moves into the Central Conus. A passing disturbance could bring a shower or stray storm with brief sub VFR conditions during the first few hours of the period to KSYM, KIOB, KJKL, and KSJS. Otherwise, in between the sfc systems, south to southwest winds should average between 5 and 15KT with some gusts to around 20KT for the first few hours of the period. Low and mid level clouds are expected to decrease this evening while winds should also diminish around 00Z with the loss of daytime heating. South to southwest winds should pick up again into the 5 to 12KT range from around 14Z to the end of the period as the nocturnal inversion mixes out. A few gusts to around 20KT are also possible. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...CMC LONG TERM...GINNICK AVIATION...JP  884 FXUS63 KGRR 141850 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 250 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Risk for Severe Thunderstorms and Flooding Tonight - Continued Thunderstorms Chances Wednesday - Active Stretch of Weather Continues into Weekend && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 250 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Risk for Severe Thunderstorms and Flooding Tonight Severe thunderstorms with the risk of damaging winds, large hail, tornadoes, and heavy rain expected largely between 7PM tonight to 4AM early Wednesday. Significant clearing has occurred across the area allowing for instability to build this afternoon. HREF is highlighting around 2000 J/kg of surface based cape largely along and south of I-96 with similar MUCAPE values extending further north. Upper level divergence will be in play along with low level jet convergence as it moves in between 7PM-10PM this evening. It is in this window we expect storms to develop. Effective shear of around 40-50 knots will aid in storms becoming more organized with 0-1km storm relative helicity values of 200 m2/s2 largely along and south of I-96 and mid level lapse rates around 7-8 C/km. With this setup all hazards are in play. The highest risk for tornadoes will be along and south of I-96 due the greater storm relative helicity values and surface based CAPE. Storms may begin isolated before congealing into a line that moves southeastward through the state. Quick spin-up tornadoes and damaging winds will be possible with the line. Corfidi vectors may aid in some backbuilding behind storms this evening which would increase the flooding potential. HREF highlights local probability matched mean amounts of 2 to 4 inches in portions of western, central, and southern Michigan. With these signals the flood watch has been extended to the entire area. - Continued Thunderstorms and Flooding Chances Wednesday Conditional risk for severe thunderstorms Wednesday late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. The low level jet should help sustain rain and thunderstorms into Wednesday morning, especially for areas along and south of I-94. The threat for severe thunderstorms later Wednesday will be directly tied to if we are able to recover from the morning convection. If we aren't able to recover enough, garden variety thunderstorms with heavy rain are expected. If we are able to recover, damaging winds and tornadoes will be possible. Mean HREF values currently have surface based CAPE values improve to around 500 to 1000 J/kg. Meanwhile minimum surface based CAPE values are 500 less than 500 J/kg and maximum values are 2000 J/kg or greater along and south of I-96. This large spread points to the large uncertainty with how tomorrow will play out. However, with any rainfall, the flooding risk will continue due to the already saturated conditions from the previous rounds of rainfall. Check the HYDROLOGY section for more information. - Active Stretch of Weather Continues into Weekend An upper level low moves through the region Thursday, continuing rain and thunderstorm chances into Thursday evening. Pressure heights increase Thursday night into Friday, giving the area a brief break in the rainfall. However, southwest flow returns ahead of a deep trough, bringing rain and thunderstorm chances back to the area Friday night into Saturday. There is a potential for severe thunderstorms as well, which is outlined in the SPC day 5 outlook. Colder air moves in behind the low Saturday with lows Saturday night into Sunday dropping into the 30s. This could result in some snow mixing in on the backside. Highs Sunday are only expected to be in the 40s, and with breezy west to northwest winds, this will probably keep wind chills in the upper 20s to 30s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 140 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions will prevail over West Michigan through this afternoon, along with SW breezes gusting to near 20 kts and SCT-BKN 4-5kft CU/SC. This tranquil weather will not last. Thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across parts of WI/IL/IA. These storms will likely congeal into one or perhaps two solid lines of strong-severe thunderstorms as they race eastward across Lake Michigan. Storms will arrive at MKG around 01Z, GRR/AZO/BTL roughly 01-02Z, and LAN/JXN around 03Z. Strong gusty winds and IFR conditions will accompany these storms. The storms will subside overnight, though MVFR conditions and a chance for showers will persist through Wednesday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 250 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Wave heights will continue to fall below Small Craft Advisory conditions this afternoon, therefore the Advisory has been cancelled. Dense fog is slowly clearing as well. Will keep the dense fog advisory for now, but it could be cancelled early if conditions continue to improve. Thunderstorms are expected tonight with the potential for damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes. Higher waves will also be possible with any thunderstorm. Thunderstorms will gradually taper off in the southern zones Wednesday morning, but there is a chance they could linger through the day. Otherwise thunderstorm chances return late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 250 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Bottom line: The most significant flood in recent years is likely upcoming on the Muskegon River, with several locations expected to pass Major flood stage. Another 1-2 inches of rain fell last night, primarily in upper/headwaters portions of the Muskegon River Watershed. This joins the previous 2-5 inches of rain in the area that is all finding its way toward the river. A significant and impactful flood on the Muskegon River will be developing over the next few days, with a crest expected in the Friday timeframe. Meanwhile, additional rounds of heavy rain are expected to shift south a bit starting today, with the Grand River basin the more likely to be impacted. With 1-2" across a large area, and locally 3"+ bullseyes expected, we are expecting some localized flooding to develop overnight tonight, especially if the thunderstorms track over urban areas repeatedly. This will also eventually get the Grand River water levels increasing again over the next few days. Currently, this looks like we'll largely repeat the minor flooding (on the Grand River and tributaries) that occurred in the last few weeks. Further south, the Kalamazoo River has been a bit drier lately, so no flooding is expected to develop there, though urban and poor-drainage area flooding will definitely be possible over the next day or two as the thunderstorms move through. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Flood Watch through late Thursday night for MIZ037>040-043>046- 050>052. Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through late Thursday night for MIZ056>059-064>067-071>074. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ848-849. && $$ DISCUSSION...RAH AVIATION...Smith MARINE...RAH HYDROLOGY...AMD  410 FXUS65 KMSO 141852 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 1252 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Tonight/Wednesday: Pass level snow, potential minor travel impacts. - A potent cold front drops snow levels to the valley floors Wednesday night and Thursday, bringing the potential for sudden snow squalls in southwest Montana and travel impacts over mountain passes. - A brief warmup with drier weather is expected for the upcoming weekend before active weather returns. Expect breezy west winds this afternoon, gusting around 25 mph. Tonight, a stronger low-pressure system and a plume of Pacific moisture will begin moving into the Northern Rockies. The heaviest precipitation will focus across north-central Idaho and northwest Montana. Snow levels will hover around 4,500 feet, so impacts will mostly be confined to higher terrain. Lookout, Marias, and Lolo passes have a high chance (60 to 80 percent) of seeing a few inches of new snow, though roads just below the passes should remain mostly wet. A strong cold front will sweep across the region Wednesday, continuing pass level snow and valley showers. By Wednesday afternoon and evening this front will cause a burst of heavier precipitation and rapidly falling snow levels, dropping all the way to the valley floors. Be on alert for sudden snow squalls as the front moves through southwest Montana on Wednesday evening, which can cause rapidly dropping visibility and slick roads. This will create moderate travel impacts on mountain passes Wednesday night and Thursday morning. There is still some uncertainty regarding how much snow will ultimately accumulate in the valleys. Current models show the bulk of the moisture arriving directly along the cold front, which typically limits valley accumulations, but heavy bursts are still possible. Furthermore, there is a 25 percent chance that a weak, closed low-pressure system could develop over southwest Montana. If this happens, precipitation amounts in that area would be enhanced, leading to higher snow totals than currently forecast. Finally, we will closely monitor the potential for snow squalls Wednesday evening, as their exact timing and intensity are highly localized and complex to pin down in advance. Showery conditions will remain through Thursday with the trough over the region, and lingering mountain snow showers will taper off through Friday. A ridge of high pressure will build over the region this weekend, bringing a brief but welcome return to warmer and drier weather. However, this break will be short-lived, as another weather disturbance is currently expected to arrive by early next week. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions will generally prevail today, though some mountain obscuration will continue, especially across northwest Montana. Southwest winds will increase to 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 20 to 25 knots at terminal sites this afternoon. Winds will relax in most valleys south of the I-90 corridor by sunset but will remain elevated in northwest Montana. Precipitation (rain and high-elevation snow) will quickly increase along the Idaho/Montana border by early evening and spread eastward overnight. Downsloping winds will limit precipitation in many western Montana valleys. Snow levels will lower to 4,000 to 5,000 feet by Wednesday morning. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Wednesday to 9 AM MDT Thursday for Butte/Blackfoot Region...Potomac/Seeley Lake Region. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Thursday for Lower Clark Fork Region...West Glacier Region. Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Wednesday to 9 AM MDT Thursday for Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains. ID...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM MDT /5 PM PDT/ Wednesday to 9 AM MDT /8 AM PDT/ Thursday for Eastern Lemhi County... Northern Clearwater Mountains...Southern Clearwater Mountains...Western Lemhi County. && $$  212 FXUS61 KGYX 141857 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 257 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Confidence has increased for the severe potential across New Hampshire and western Maine this afternoon and evening. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A few strong to severe storms are possible through the evening hours across New Hampshire and western Maine today. 2. Another warm day with scattered showers and storms is expected on Wednesday. 3. Low pressure is likely to move across northern New England on Thursday and Friday, bringing more rain and storms to New Hampshire and Maine. 4. Above average temperatures start to subside and lead way to cooler temperatures through this weekend and early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... The forecast remains on track for the chance of some strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, mainly across New Hampshire and western Maine. Overall temperatures have ended up warmer than forecasted today, adding confidence to the severe potential. Southwest New Hampshire has the greatest severe potential, with wind being the main concern. A non zero chance of a tornado, and some hail are also possible. These storms move through during the evening hours, and gradually weaken as they move through the marine layer across Maine and the NH Seacoast. The remnant showers and storms push offshore by late evening, with a few scattered showers lingering into the overnight hours. Areas of fog and low clouds are likely along the coast tonight as the marine layer moves ashore. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Wednesday's weather looks somewhat similar to today's, but overall cooler across Maine and eastern New Hampshire with a cloudier start to the day. Temps likely warm into the mid to upper 70s across south central and western New Hampshire tomorrow afternoon. Another remnant MCS drifts eastward from the Midwest tomorrow afternoon, bringing another chance for showers during the afternoon hours. With enough daytime heating, thunderstorms are possible across southwest New Hampshire again tomorrow afternoon, but the severe potential looks to be much more limited. Late Wednesday and Wednesday night, a back door front stalls near the Maine/NH border. Overall the progression of this front has been reduced since yesterday, and will be difficult to discern from an average sea breeze front going into Thursday. More fog and low marine clouds will be possible tomorrow night near and east of this boundary KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... Thursday morning, a warm front turns stationary over northern New England. With the frontal boundary stationary, persistent showers and maybe a thunderstorm looks to move in Thursday afternoon. Scattered to numerous showers and storms could continue through Thursday night and into Friday. A northward pivot of the front on Friday may allow for skies to clear in the south. If this is the case, convective initiation is likely Friday afternoon, with thunderstorms in the forecast again for southern New Hampshire. By the end of the evening, the low moves out of the area. A break in the unsettled weather looks likely on Saturday, though rain re- enters the picture on Sunday in the form of a cold front. KEY MESSAGE 4 DESCRIPTION... Temperature-wise, a strong mid-level ridge is keeping temperatures generally pretty warm for this time of year. Temperatures on Thursday will still vary greatly. Highs are forecast in the lower 70s across southern and central New Hampshire. A sea breeze and backdoor cold front both will likely keep coastal areas and Maine at least 10-15F cooler than New Hampshire on Thursday and Friday. The first drop off in temperatures occurs on Saturday, as the aforementioned low on Friday ushers in cooler air and starts to flatten the mid-level ridge. Temperatures over the weekend look to be in the upper 50s and lower 60s. The second drop-off in temperatures occurs Sunday afternoon with the previously mentioned cold front. This front could have some more potent arctic air behind it and may bring high temperatures early next week into the upper 40s and lower 50s. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Mainly VFR prevails at LEB, MHT, and CON, except some brief restrictions in showers and possibly a thunderstorm this evening. Elsewhere, periods of MVFR due to ceilings and showers are likely by this evening, with IFR in low ceilings more likely at PSM, PWM, RKD, and AUG tonight. Improvement to MVFR and VFR is likely tomorrow, then MVFR and showers are possible again Wednesday afternoon. IFR with low ceilings is possible again along coastal terminals Wednesday night. Outlook: Thursday-Friday: MVFR due to showers and thunderstorms. Saturday: VFR expected. Sunday-Monday: MVFR due to showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Generally fair winds and seas are expected through Wednesday night as a backdoor front stalls near the coast late Wednesday. Areas of fog will be possible each night. Sub-SCA conditions are expected through the end of this weekend, with variable winds and seas of around 2-5ft. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Clair/Palmer AVIATION...Clair/Palmer MARINE...Clair/Palmer