994 FXUS63 KUNR 141900 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 100 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions Wednesday and Thursday; a Fire Weather Watch is in effect Thursday. - Cooler with rain/snow behind cold front late Thursday through Friday. - Trending warmer Saturday through early next week. && .DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Tuesday) Issued at 1256 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Active southwesterly flow continues across the central US. Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough pushing through the Northern Plains and an upper low ejecting out of the Central Rockies along with an active southern stream as moisture streams into the Southern Plains. Surface low pressure is centered over southeastern NE with a weak gradient over the forecast area. Light showers/sprinkles continue across southwestern SD into south- central SD, although a dry boundary layer and lack of appreciable mid-level moisture will limit precipitation amounts. Showers will taper off this afternoon and early evening as subsidence overspreads the region. Warmer and dry tomorrow with temperatures in the upper 60s to upper 70s across the plains. Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions are expected with RH falling into the teens to low 20s, particularly portions of NE WY and SW SD, although there is some uncertainty regarding boundary layer winds/if frequent gusts > 25 mph will develop. Even warmer (along and south of I90 in SD) and drier Thursday ahead of a cold front with critical conditions possible; a Fire Weather Watch is in effect from the Weston County plains through southern SD. Cold front arrives Thursday evening bringing cooler air and potential for rain and snow. Upper trough will eject out of the Central Rockies, although recent guidance shows split flow developing. Pacific moisture advects into the region ahead of this trough, although appreciable moisture is lacking (precipitable water values ~100-125% of normal). Best chance of measurable precipitation across NE WY and the northern Black Hills (NBM prob QPF >0.25" ~30-55%). Warm air advection returns Saturday with temperatures trending warmer through the weekend into early next week with elevated fire weather conditions expected. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Wednesday) Issued At 1040 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the period. Isolated/scattered rain showers will fall from southwest into south-central SD through 15/06z as they move east/northeast. Local MVFR conditions are possible in the strongest showers. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued At 1256 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions expected tomorrow (Wed) across much of the area as RH falls into the teens to low 20s. Best overlap of low RH and stronger winds forecast across southern Campbell and Weston Counties in WY through southwestern SD into the southern Black Hills and foothills. Some uncertainty remains whether winds will reach critical thresholds to warrant a RFW; will continue to monitor. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect Thursday for the Weston County plains through southern SD as stronger southwest winds will develop ahead of a cold front. Daytime minimum RH will fall as low as 12-14 percent Thursday. Mid-level clouds ahead of the front and spotty high-based showers may complicate things Thursday by keeping temperatures a bit cooler and RH higher. However, plan for at least elevated to near-critical conditions Thursday (and Wednesday). && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for SDZ321-322-325-326-332>335. WY...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for WYZ317. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...SE AVIATION...Helgeson FIRE WEATHER...SE  205 FXUS65 KRIW 141901 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 101 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light snow shower chances (20%) exist through 6PM MDT across the western mountains, the Bighorns, and Casper Mountain. - A potent winter storm system is forecast to bring widespread precipitation, wind, and freezing temperatures to the entire area beginning late Wednesday until Friday evening. Confidence in measurable snowfall continues to increase for low elevations. - There is high (90% +) confidence in a hard freeze (28 degrees or below) across low elevations Friday morning and Saturday morning, with the potential for widespread lows in the teens on Saturday morning. && .UPDATE... Issued at 100 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Today's weather is on track to be the last tranquil day across the area before the upcoming weather system. Weak flow with relatively dry mid-level air will be present behind the departing trough and allow for mostly sunny skies this afternoon. Expect highs to be in the 60s east of the Divide and in the 40s to 50s west of the Divide. As mentioned in the morning discussion, isolated light snow shower chances (20%) exist this afternoon across higher elevations as a weak disturbance traverses the state. Breezy conditions are expected west of the Divide as this disturbance passes over this afternoon. All attention continues to be focused on the upcoming winter weather system that is forecast to impact the region Wednesday night through Friday. This system, a strong cold front, is expected to bring widespread wind, precipitation, and cold. As the trough and associated cold front makes its way into the northern Rockies on Wednesday, expect strong southwest winds Wednesday afternoon as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the cold front. Frequent wind gusts of 25 mph to 40 mph can be expected across most of the area and result in elevated fire weather conditions. Relative humidity values are expected (70-90%) to remain above 20 percent. The first push of the winter weather arrives across western Wyoming Wednesday afternoon. Across the western mountains, the most likely period of heavy snow will occur early Wednesday evening through midday Thursday as the cold front makes its push east. Snow totals have also trended up across the Wind River Mountains beginning Wednesday evening, so this area has been added to the Winter Storm Watch. Precipitation will then spread east across the rest of Wyoming Thursday afternoon, most likely as rain. The cold push currently looks to not arrive until after sunset on Thursday for most low elevations. Thanks to strong cold air advection, this will feel like a good punch of cold behind the front with 700mb temperatures rapidly dropping from positive 2 celsius to near negative 10 celsius in a matter of hours. This strong northerly push will also result in gusty winds, especially near Buffalo where there is an 85% chance of 45+ mph gusts. Given the moisture content with this system and the cold temperatures, there is fairly high confidence (80%+) in most low elevation areas seeing measurable snowfall by Friday morning. However, no highlights will be issued at this time for locations east of the Divide due to the greatest impacts occurring in 2+ days (Thursday night into Friday midday). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 145 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Finally a more active pattern across Wyoming trying to bring precipitation! The latest system is a trough ejecting into the central Plains from the Four Corners region. This system is set a little too far south to bring a significant amount of precip, but still enough energy to produce precip for areas of Casper Mountain, the Bighorns, and higher elevations of the Tetons. But this does set the table for a potent late winter storm diving out of the PacNW into the northern Rockies. This system starts to spread precip into the NW mountains during the day Wednesday before slowly moving east Thursday and Friday. The system will be accompanied by ample moisture, so the potential for meaningful accumulations is improving. The system will also be accompanied by a strong push of colder air, so most precip will be snowfall, especially Thursday night into Friday. This includes most of the lower elevations as well, with the current forecast totals of 2 to 5 inches. Winter Storm Watches have been posted for the northwestern Mountains and YNP for this system, and may need to be expanded is the snow forecast increases with later updates. The other concern with this next system is the significant cold air push coming with and behind the next system. Cold temperatures will arrive during the day Thursday, with lows Thursday night in the low to mid 20s east of the Divide and in the teens west of the Divide. The main core of the cold air then settles in on Friday, with the core of the cold air setting in Friday night. Probabilities of temperatures falling below 28 degrees are high (>90%), with current forecast lows reaching the teens. The complicating factor will be how quickly cloud cover clears out behind the weather system, allowing for radiational cooling. If clouds hold longer, these teens would likely not be achieved. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1057 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail across nearly all terminals through much of the TAF period. The one exception to this currently is KJAC where some linger low level clouds persist. Conditions should continue to improve shortly after the start of the period with VFR conditions likely to return. A shower or two cannot be ruled out around 21Z Tuesday nearby KJAC. Due to low confidence in direct impacts at the terminal only a VCSH group has been added. Winds gradually increase this afternoon with nearly all terminals seeing winds of 15 to 25 knots. These winds should dissipate shortly after sunset with light winds around 5 to 10 knots persisting through the overnight. A nearing disturbance will start to usher in more cloud coverage for Wednesday. Winds will begin to increase near the end of the TAF period mainly across northern and western terminals. Mountain obscuration will linger mainly across western mountain ranges as low clouds continue to burn through the early afternoon with improvement expected by the mid afternoon. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday evening through late Thursday night for WYZ001-002-012. Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday evening through Friday afternoon for WYZ014-015. && $$ UPDATE...Gerhardt DISCUSSION...Straub AVIATION...Dziewaltowski  530 FXUS65 KTWC 141901 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 1201 PM MST Tue Apr 14 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Breezy winds this afternoon east of Tucson along with high temperatures 3-8 degrees below normal. Temperatures remain just below normal Wednesday, then returning to near to slightly above normal levels Thursday and Friday, though some breezy winds are expected both days. Temperatures warm up to above normal levels this weekend with more breezes Sunday into early next work week. && .DISCUSSION...Mostly sunny skies across southeast Arizona this afternoon as below normal temperatures make it a cool April day. With the upper low near the Four Corners and and weak trough axis extending into Arizona, breezes will continue especially east of Tucson. Over the upcoming period, we're seeing a typical April pattern with the main storm track generally to our north with periods of increased breezes/winds as each respective system passes to our north. In the near term, Wednesday will have light winds as shortwave ridging traverses through southeast Arizona. Temperatures will warm about 3 to 8 degrees compares to today (less warming east, more west). Another system will move through the Great Basin Thursday and into the central Rockies Friday resulting in another period of increased breezes for all of southeast Arizona Thursday and Friday. Some locales, especially across Graham/Greenlee/Cochise County on Thursday and Friday will approach critical fire weather thresholds. While we're confident that RH values will meet critical levels, it's the winds that are more borderline in nature. Official forecast wind speeds have been increased to around NBM 75th percentile during this period, but that still is a little bit below widespread critical thresholds, so we'll continue to monitor trends over upcoming shifts for potential fire weather headlines. Meanwhile, temperatures will nudge briefly higher Thursday to slightly above normal, then cool to near normal levels Friday. Another shortwave ridge is expected Saturday so that will result in some lighter winds before ensembles show increasing southwest flow around Sunday and Monday resulting in another uptick in breezes. Temperatures warm to above normal levels this weekend into early next week. & .AVIATION...Valid through 16/00z. FEW-SCT clouds 6-10k ft AGL thru 15/02Z, then expect SKC conditions. SFC winds SWLY 10-20 kts with gusts 20-30 kts thru 15/02Z with the strongest winds at KDUG. Wind speeds at KTUS and KOLS on the lower end of that range. After 15/02Z winds decrease below 10 kts and become variable, then remain 10 kts or less with winds becoming WLY/NWLY aft 15/19Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Expect breezy winds mainly east of Tucson with speeds 12-18 mph and gusts 20-30 mph this afternoon. Wednesday winds will be mostly light and terrain driven 5 to 10 mph. Another Pacific system will move to our north Thursday and Friday leading to another round strong gusty winds. While RH values are expected to meet critical thresholds, uncertainty continues on whether wind speeds will be strong enough to warrant Red Flag headlines. Regardless, at least near critical fire weather conditions are expected during this periods. As trends evolve, confidence will increase on the potential for fire weather headlines. Light winds return Saturday before an increase in breezes again around Sunday and into early next work week. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Hardin Visit us on Facebook, X, YouTube, and at weather.gov/Tucson  859 FXUS64 KEWX 141901 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 201 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated strong to severe storms with heavy rainfall possible across the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande late this afternoon/evening. - Another chance for isolated severe storms tomorrow - Warm and humid conditions to continue throughout the week as our active weather pattern continues. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 1229 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Current visible satellite imagery shows quite an extensive cloud deck over the area that's just now finally starting to erode from south to north. We even had some areas of drizzle form which isnt surprising as the atmosphere remains extremely moist across the area. Most should remain dry through late this afternoon as we continue to mix up the atmosphere remaining capped. Our attention then turns to the west where an approaching dryline and attendant mid-level shortwave approach the area helping to ignite convection along and ahead of this boundary. Most Hi-Res model guidance is in fairly good agreement that initiation of convection should commence over northern Mexico and push across the border into Val Verde county by later this afternoon. SPC currently has a level 2 of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms across Val Verde, Kinney, parts of Maverick and most of Edwards counties. The main risk being for large to very large (potentially 3+ inches) hail and sporadic damaging gusts. Additionally, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. A level 1 of 5 risk is places along and west of the I-35 Corridor. Agree with this as the most recent sounding at DRT shows the presence of steep mid- level lapse rates atop very moist low- level moisture just along and east of the dryline. Likewise models continue to hint at MUCAPE values of 1500 to 2500 J/kg along with 50-65kt of effective bulk wind shear and steep mid level lapse rates of 7-7.5 C/km building by this afternoon. All these factors continue to support and increase ones confidence that should convection form along this boundary we could see some very large hail late this afternoon and into this evening. Convection should then begin to spread east northeastward into parts of the Southern Edwards Plateau before weakening and perhaps reaching the western Hill Country by late this evening. Most activity is expected to wane significantly after midnight as we lose mixing potential and storms begin to encounter more stable air to the east. Additionally, any convection that forms will have rich moisture to work with and will be capable of producing torrential rainfall with a quick 1-3 inches an hour not out of the question. As a result, WPC has an area along and west of a Llano to Kerrville to Carrizo Springs in a level 1 of 4 risk for excessive rainfall. Depending on tonights convective evolution and how far east these storms make it will greatly impact our next shot for active weather tomorrow. Less storms tonight generally means more active weather for tomorrow with the opposite being true if we end up seeing storms progress further east as the atmosphere will need time to recover and reload. As such, SPC continues to keep us in a level 1 of 5 risk for the same areas as today with main risks being damaging wind gusts and large hail. Most Hi-Res models continue to struggle on the exact placement convection will occur and this is likely due to the uncertainty surrounding the evolution of the convection tonight. Regardless, with the upper level trough nearing our area Wednesday the more likely scenario would be convection forming over the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country and pushing off to the northeast. Most activity should be well off to the north and east by overnight Wednesday as upper-level ridging starts to build in allowing many to finally dry out and warm up. Regarding high temperatures Wednesday, most should expect to find themselves in the mid 80s with areas that see more sun possibly nearing 90 degrees. Lows tonight and tomorrow night will remain abnormally warm with many not dropping below 70 degrees. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1229 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 As alluded to briefly in the short term, upper-level ridging builds across the area by early Thursday and continues into Friday before a deep trough is forecast to bring an attendant cold front through most of North Central and South Central TX. As this happens expect convection to blossom out and ahead of this front as southerly low-level flow along with southwesterly flow aloft should help funnel in rich moisture from the Gulf. Expect convection to take advantage of this setup with WPC once again highlighting a level 1 of 4 risk in an area along and north of a Fredericksburg to Buda to La Grange line. Once this front passes we should see much colder air spill in behind it with highs Thursday and Friday near 90 dropping into the 70s by Sunday. Additionally, expect some off and on showers Sunday into Monday as mid-level southwesterly flow remains. By Monday we should see the peak of this CAA with areas perhaps not making it out of the 60s especially across the Hill Country with a gradual warmup expected as southerly low-level flow finally returns by Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 MVFR ceilings may linger for another hour over KSAT/KAUS and into the mid-afternoon for KDRT, though VFR conditions will be short- lived with redevelopment of MVFR to IFR ceilings again tonight into Wednesday morning. South to southeast wind may gust from 20-25 knots across the area through the evening. Models have been consistent in initiating storms near KDRT near 00Z today and have opted to include a TEMPO group for this possibility. Storm development may hinder the timing of low ceilings in the west tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 69 85 69 89 / 10 30 20 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 68 85 68 89 / 0 20 20 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 68 85 67 89 / 0 20 10 0 Burnet Muni Airport 67 81 66 85 / 20 50 30 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 69 86 69 89 / 60 20 10 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 68 82 67 88 / 10 30 30 0 Hondo Muni Airport 67 84 65 88 / 20 30 10 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 68 85 68 89 / 0 20 20 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 69 86 70 89 / 0 10 10 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 70 85 68 89 / 10 20 10 0 Stinson Muni Airport 70 86 70 90 / 0 20 10 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CJM LONG TERM....CJM AVIATION...27  944 FXUS64 KHUN 141902 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 202 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New NEAR TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1010 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Low relative humidity values, dry fuels, and gusty winds will result in elevated fire weather conditions today through Wednesday. - There are medium chances (30-40%) of showers and storms on Thursday. - Medium chances (30-60%) of showers and storms return on Saturday. && .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 201 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A line of broken to scattered mid-level clouds have been lingering across northwest AL all day with mainly sunny skies elsewhere. This hasn't prevented temps from warming up into the upper 70s to lower 80s thanks to WAA from breezy southwesterly winds. Gusts have been reaching 15-20kts, but keeping below 25kts (a Red Flag Warning threshold). RH values are also remaining out of RFW criteria , generally around 30%. Regardless, with conditions so dry across the TN Valley, ensure you are fire smart and caution continues to be emphasized. Gusts will slack after sunset and under a mostly clear skies, temps will fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Thursday Night) Issued at 1010 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Near record warmth is forecast through the short term period with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s on Wednesday and Thursday. These temperatures are around 10 degrees above climatological normals for this time of year. Locally, not much change is in store as high pressure along the Southeast coast continues to be the main factor in our local weather pattern. One thing to watch is on Thursday as a shortwave riding along the trough to our west will push eastward towards the Tennessee River Valley. This will bring a low to medium chance (20-40%) of showers and thunderstorms Thursday evening. Unfortunately, overall rain amounts will remain quite low and will not put much of a dent into our deficit this Spring. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 1052 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 The extended forecast period will begin with a continuation of warm/dry conditions, as a 500-mb ridge builds northeastward in the wake of a low amplitude shortwave trough and weak surface low tracking eastward across the northern Mid-Atlantic states. With only a few high-based cumulus anticipated beneath a strengthening mid- level inversion and light SSW flow in the low-levels, most valley locations will experience highs in the u80s-l90s. Low-level flow will begin to increase on Friday evening as a deepening vort max (embedded within the base of a broader trough extending from southern Canada into the northern Plains) begins to eject northeastward into the MO Valley, resulting in development of a frontal wave that will lift northeastward from KS into WI by 12Z Saturday. Latest model guidance suggests that both the mid-level wave and surface low will undergo substantial intensification as they progress further northeastward into eastern OT/western QC by 12Z Sunday, with showers and thunderstorms expected to develop along the length of the trailing cold front and perhaps a prefrontal surface trough (from IL/IN into the northwestern Gulf Coast) Saturday afternoon. As the cold front begins to overtake the surface trough across the TN Valley Saturday evening, chances for much needed rainfall will increase across our forecast area, but there remains a large amount of uncertainty regarding rainfall amounts (ranging from around 0.05-0.10" as a worst case scenario to 0.5-0.75" as a best case scenario). This is likely due to the combination of substantial amount of lingering CINH noted in forecast soundings and a narrow plume of modified Gulf moisture which will only overspread the entire region immediately in advance of the front. Should the low/mid-level thermodynamic profile improve, rainfall amounts would likely be closer to the best case scenario, and a few strong storms capable of producing gusty winds would also be probable given sufficiently strong WSW flow aloft (45-55 knots) for updraft organization. Regardless, the front appears as if it will be exiting our region early Sunday morning, with any lingering precipitation ending in our southeastern zones around 12Z Sunday. A cooler/drier continental airmass will overspread the region for the remainder of the period, featuring highs in the u60s-l70s Sunday and overnight lows in the l-m 40s Monday morning. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1206 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period at KHSV and KMSL. Southwesterly gusts will slack shortly after sunset but they will pick back up to 15kts after sunrise tomorrow. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...JMS SHORT TERM....GH LONG TERM....70 AVIATION...JMS  234 FXUS61 KCAR 141904 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 304 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... -No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Some rain is expected this evening. This combined with above normal temperatures through Wednesday will continue to erode any remaining ice on northern rivers. 2) Warming temperatures through the end of the week, along with rainfall, will continue melting the remaining snow and ice in norther Maine. 3) Slight chance for some thunderstorms Downeast Thursday evening into Friday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Some rain is expected this evening. This combined with above normal temperatures through Wednesday will continue to erode any remaining ice on northern rivers. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...A brief period of rain is expected early this evening before ending later this evening. Rainfall through tonight is expected to range from one quarter to around a half inch. A stray clap of thunder is not totally out of the question for mainly Downeast, especially the coast. Continued unseasonably warm temperatures combined with any rainfall will continue to erode any remaining ice on the St John river in far northern Maine. KEY MESSAGE 2...Warming temperatures through the end of the week, along with rainfall, will continue melting the remaining snow and ice in norther Maine. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...Temperatures above normal throughout the rest of the week. generally with daytime highs in the 50s throughout northern and eastern Maine. Overnight lows generally in the 40s, and creep back into the mid-to-upper 30s by the end of the week. This extended period of warming temperatures, along with some potential rain Thursday night, will continue eroding snow/ice, and northern Maine river ice. KEY MESSAGE 3...Very slight chance for some thunderstorms Downeast Thursday evening into Friday. KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... Shortwave and low pressure system moves through late Thursday into Friday morning. Moisture advection, alongside weak frontal passage, with decent lapse rates and shear, work in favor of some minor thunderstorms developing. That being said, there is a deep inversion a few hundred feet above the surface, that would cap any storm development in the region. Decided to keep a slight chance for storms in the forecast, but temperatures would need to warm up for chance of a rumble of thunder. The chance of thunder is under 15 percent. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Rest of this afternoon...Mainly VFR. Light variable wind becoming SE. Tonight...MVFR/IFR, rain this evening. Patchy fog. Light E to SE wind. Wednesday through Wednesday night...MVFR, Scattered showers. E to SE wind 5 to 10 kt. Thursday...MVFR/IFR with rain showers. Winds from the SE around 5 kt. Thursday night...MVFR/IFR, with rain and with a chance of patchy fog. SE wind around 5 kt shifting to the NE by daybreak. Friday...MVFR/IFR in rain showers. NW/N winds around 5kts. Friday night...MVFR as rain showers start to weaken. Winds from the N, shifting to the NE, at 5kts. Saturday...Generally VFR. E, shifting to SE, winds at 5 - 10 kts. && .MARINE... Winds/seas will remain below SCA levels through Wednesday night. Conditions below Small Craft criteria through the end of the week. Rain showers Thursday into Friday. Patchy fog Thursday night. Seas generally 3ft and below Thursday into Friday. Winds from the E on Thursday, shifting to the SE Thursday evening, then shifting NE by Friday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ASB/TWD AVIATION...ASB/TWD  399 FXUS66 KMFR 141904 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1204 PM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .DISCUSSION...A shortwave ridge passing over northern California and southern Oregon will produce calm, mostly clear weather for the rest of today. Daytime highs will warm slightly from Monday's temperatures, but clouds will steadily increase across the area as the next system approaches. As this cold front approaches, some coastal showers will begin to move into the area this evening, which we can already see in Radar imagery offshore this afternoon. More widespread rainfall is expected on Wednesday. Coastal cities look to see 1 to 1.5 inches of rainfall, while coastal ranges could see around 2 inches. Rainfall in the Umpqua Valley is forecast to be between 0.75 and 1 inch, with other valleys and basins seeing lower amounts through Wednesday. With snow levels expected to hover at 4500-5500 feet from the front's arrival through Wednesday morning, winter impacts look to be limited to the Cascades. A Winter Weather Advisory is in place for areas near and north of Crater Lake and at elevations above 5000 feet from Wednesday morning through Thursday morning, given that snowfall in this area is expected to make travel hazardous. Snowfall amounts of 12 to 16 inches are forecast over the Cascades on Wednesday. Current SPC guidance shows around a 90 percent chance for snowfall rates of 1 inch per hour Wednesday morning into early in the afternoon, and 40 to 50 percent chance for a brief period of 2 inches per hour late in the morning. Also, gusty winds are expected over elevated terrain and the usual exposed areas on Wednesday, especially east of the Cascades. With mid-level model winds approaching 55 kts, gusts along Winter Rim/Summer Lake and the Warner Mountains could reach up to 55 mph in that late Wednesday morning-early afternoon timeframe. Gusts of 30-40 mph are expected to be more widespread across east side areas. Activity across the area eases on Wednesday evening, but a cold air mass looks to bring impactful overnight low temperatures for west side valleys. The Rogue, Applegate, Illinois, and western Klamath County valleys are all forecast to see lows from the mid 20s to low 30s on these nights. These temperatures would bring chances of frost or freezing conditions. East of the Cascades, overnight lows look to be in the mid teens to low 20s. Chilly nights aside, Thursday looks to be a quieter day. While snow levels drop to 1500-2000 feet in the morning, declining activity will minimize the chance of impactful winter conditions at lower elevations. Another shortwave ridge looks to bring warmer temperatures and dry conditions on Friday and Saturday. Long-term deterministic imagery is showing more agreement of a low pressure system approaching the area from the northwest late this weekend into early next week, bringing periods of southwest or southerly flow. While details are still coarse, the tight pressure gradients aloft in imagery tend to indicate stronger winds, and southerly flow patterns tend to deliver moderate to heavy precipitation to the Mount Shasta area and coastal terrain. Details remain coarse for this timeframe, so stay tuned for additional details on continuing active weather. && .AVIATION (18Z TAFs)... A front will pass through the region this evening. This will result in widespread precipitation chances through tonight into Wednesday afternoon. As a result, MVFR conditions will likely become common across the area. Probabilities are not high enough to include IFR ceilings, but rainfall intensity along the coast could bring visibilities down to IFR conditions. Probabilities were not high enough to include IFR (ceilings/visibilities) for inland sites at this time, but there is an 8%-18% chance for IFR conditions inland. -Guerrero && .MARINE...Updated 1200 PM PDT Tuesday, April 14, 2026...Seas will remain below advisory level through early this afternoon. However, a front will start passing through the region later today. This will result in widespread precipitation, strong winds, and steep seas starting late this afternoon/early evening. Localized areas of very steep and hazardous seas may be briefly possible north of Coos Bay as the front initially starts to transition over the waters. Steep seas will continue behind the front through Thursday afternoon. A weak thermal trough may bring gusty northerly winds over the outer waters and south of Cape Blanco on Friday. Another active system may bring additional rainfall and steep seas this weekend. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Wednesday for ORZ030-031. Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ027. CA...Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ085. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM PDT Thursday for PZZ350-356-370-376. && $$  783 FXUS63 KABR 141904 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 204 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A warming trend will continue over the next few days, peaking on Thursday. Highs Thursday afternoon will reach the upper 70s to mid 80s, roughly 20 to 25 degrees above mid-April normals. - The combination of warm temperatures and southerly winds of 25 to 30 miles per hour result in High to Very High Grassland Fire Danger. - A cold front will move through the area Friday, leading to below normal temperatures (highs in the 40s) and precipitation Friday and Saturday. Precipitation starts out as rain Friday afternoon before transitioning to snow as colder air moves in. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 202 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Above normal temperatures take hold this afternoon, with gentle winds across much of the forecast area. The broader setup in place is such that a jet streak aloft on the front side of a ridge clips the eastern part of the forecast area, leading to some potential for some isolated precipitation development over eastern South Dakota through Wednesday. Little to no accumulation is expected out of any development, as drier air near the surface will limit the ability of these rain showers to reach the surface. The warming trend will continue over the next couple of days, peaking on Thursday. Southerly flow into the area bring an additional boost of warm air advection, and will push 85-mb temperatures to roughly 15-19 degrees Celsius, well above the 90th percentile for this time of year. This translates to highs reaching the low to mid 80s across most of the forecast area Thursday. These surface temps are about 25 degrees above normal for mid-April, but all climate sites currently look like they will fall short of any record highs. The heat will help create elevated fire weather conditions over much of the area on Thursday when combined with gusty southerly winds. High to Very High Grassland Fire Danger is expected, and it remains entirely possible that a Red Flag Warning will be warranted. A longwave trough will develop over the western CONUS, developing a low pressure system into the Northern Great Plains Friday into Saturday. Precipitation is expected with this system, developing along and behind a cold front. The last couple of NBM runs have trended the heaviest precipitation northward and out of the Aberdeen forecast area, but still looking at ensemble median values around a tenth of an inch through Saturday. Temperatures out ahead of the front will be warm enough to support rain, but as the front brings colder air into the region a transition to snow will occur. A well- saturated profile will support snow to liquid ratios around 10:1 or higher, but QPF is limited after the precipitation type transition so only a couple of tenths of snowfall accumulation is currently expected. Behind the cold front, winds turn northwesterly and increase Friday afternoon. NBM probability of Wind Advisory criteria of 45 mile per hour gusts is holding steady for the moment, at a broad 10-30% chance. These post-frontal northwesterly flow regimes tend to be underdone, so the given probabilities are likely a bit low. On the other hand, current model guidance doesn't resolve much 40+ knot support in the upper levels until Saturday rolls around, so gusts mixing to the surface Friday may still be sub-advisory level. NBM chances Saturday afternoon are fairly similar to Friday's (10-30% chance of Wind Advisory criteria), but with slightly better upper- level wind speeds it may be more realistic to actually reach 45 mph at the surface. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1206 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG Lingering morning fog has dissipated, although a few minor visibility reductions may linger for another hour or so in the early afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the rest of the period. Some scattered low clouds will stick around this afternoon, but bases are expected to be above MVFR levels. Light and variable winds are expected late tonight before solidifying in a southerly direction Wednesday morning. There is some signal in model guidance for some minor visibility reductions from fog, but confidence is low on anything widespread or any visibility reductions to MVFR status or lower. Therefore, no mention has been put into the TAFs at this time. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BC AVIATION...BC  776 FXUS61 KPHI 141904 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 304 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Isolated severe threat persists today, but confidence in occurrence is lower than before. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible later this afternoon into this evening which may be capable of producing damaging winds north and west of the I-95 corridor. Another threat for isolated thunderstorms is possible later Wednesday into Wednesday night. 2. Potentially record breaking warmth is possible this week with very warm and above normal temperatures continuing through the upcoming weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1....Isolated showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening may be capable of producing damaging winds north and west of the I-95 corridor. Another threat for isolated thunderstorms is possible later Wednesday into Wednesday night. A round of isolated showers and thunderstorms remains possible later this afternoon into this evening, but confidence is lower than before with regards to this potential threat. While there is a non- zero chance of a rogue severe thunderstorm north and west of the I- 95 corridor which may produce damaging wind gusts, the overall threat remains low. The remnant MCS across the Great Lakes from this morning has since weakened, however as diurnal heating continues some re-organization and strengthening is expected later this afternoon. Suspect convection will initiate over western/central NY and western PA near lake front boundaries this afternoon and track east-southeast as the afternoon and evening progresses. At this time, many of the CAMs now show that any convective activity will not reach our area until at least after 5 PM, possibly even as late as 9 PM. By this point, the biggest factor will be how much instability remains as storms approach. With the later timing, it seems that the severe threat will be a bit lower than previously thought. However, it is worth noting that the outlook by the Storm Prediction Center has not changed, maintaining a Marginal Risk for severe weather north and west of I-95 and a Slight Risk for areas north of I-80. All in all, isolated damaging winds are possible, but confidence in occurrence at any given location is lower. Any convective activity should wane through the evening hours and conclude overnight. For Wednesday, there is another chance for isolated severe weather across portions of eastern PA and northwest NJ where a Marginal Risk is now in place for some isolated damaging winds and small hail. However, it is worth noting that this threat is highly conditional depending on how convection evolves from upstream and with any remaining boundaries. Much of the latest available forecast guidance depicts a MCS tracking across the Great Lakes region tonight before fizzling near the Appalachian region. Similar to today, diurnal heating will likely contribute to some reinvigorating of convection in the afternoon. For now, the threat for severe weather is similar today, but will ultimately depend on how upstream convection evolves. Forecast guidance notoriously struggles with these types of scenarios, so confidence on Wednesday's threat is low. KEY MESSAGE 2...Potentially record breaking warmth is possible this week with very warm and above normal temperatures continuing through the upcoming weekend. High confidence remains in early season heat with a significant warm up expected through the middle of the week and into the upcoming weekend with the potential for record breaking temperatures. With high pressure situated over the Atlantic Ocean and the warm front well north of the Mid-Atlantic region, continued warmth is expected. Very warm air aloft coupled with warm air at surface levels will allow temperatures to be as much as 15 to 30 degrees above average this week. As of now, forecast highs are in the mid/upper 80s to low 90s on both Wednesday and Thursday, though Thursday may be a touch cooler due to more cloud cover. See Climate Section below regarding potential record breaking temperatures through Thursday. At this point, temperatures are expected to reach at least 90F for much urban corridor on Wednesday and Thursday. This would be first 90 degree day of the year and first since early September. As is typical in spring though, temperatures along/near the coast will be significantly cooler due to the colder sea surface temperatures and diurnal sea breeze. While a weak surface front passes through early Friday morning, temperatures will stay well above normal through the weekend with temps mainly in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Temperatures finally appear to cool back toward seasonable levels early next week. Not only will it be very warm over the course of the week, but it will also remain mainly dry. This is of elevated concern for ongoing drought/abnormally dry conditions over much of the area, which will likely only get worse after this week. A few weak disturbances will pass by to the north through Thursday, but other than a stray shower or thunderstorm each afternoon north of the I-95 corridor, no significant rainfall is expected. Flow will generally be out of the southwest, which is more favorable in terms of moisture, which will likely hinder the fire weather concerns this week. Winds will generally be light as well, as another limiting factor. So, even though it will be warm and dry, fire weather concerns are minimal. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Rest of Today (through 00Z)...VFR. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible at KRDG and KABE, so have kept VCSH mention but have removed VCTS as confidence in occurrence in quite low. Removed VCSH from I-95 terminals, since confidence in occurrence has declined in those spots. Southwest winds around 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt possible. Moderate-high confidence. Tonight...Prevailing VFR. A slight chance of showers at Lehigh Valley and I-95 terminals, but confidence in occurrence remains low. Some fog is possible, if any rain occurs, but have left this mention out as well. Southwest winds around 4-8 kt. Moderate confidence. Wednesday...VFR. A slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm for the Lehigh Valley and I-95 terminals late in the late afternoon, mainly after 21Z. Southwest winds around 10-15 kt. Moderate confidence. Outlook... Wednesday night through Friday...Prevailing VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms (~20-50%) in the afternoon and evening hours each day for the Lehigh Valley and I-95 terminals. Friday night through Sunday...VFR. A few showers possible through the weekend, otherwise no significant weather. && .MARINE... No marine headlines are in effect through Wednesday. South-southwest winds around 10-15 kt with gusts around 20 kt are expected with seas around 2-4 feet. Fair weather. Outlook... Wednesday night through Saturday night...No marine headlines expected. Winds generally remain below 20 kt with seas around 2-4 feet. A few showers possible. Sunday...Small Craft Advisories possible due to wind gusts around 25 kt and seas around 3-5 feet. Showers likely. && .CLIMATE... Warm temperatures well above normal are expected for the upcoming week. Wednesday is currently projected to be the warmest day, though Tuesday through Thursday could see some records broken depending on the site. Below are record highs and record high minimum temperatures for April 14th through April 16th. Record High Temperatures April 14 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 88/2023 AC Airport (ACY) 86/1945 AC Marina (55N) 90/1941 Georgetown (GED) 87/1977 Mount Pocono (MPO) 84/2023 Philadelphia (PHL) 91/1941 Reading (RDG) 90/1941 Trenton (TTN) 89/1941 Wilmington (ILG) 87/1941 Record Warmest Low Temperatures April 14 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 61/2014 AC Airport (ACY) 63/2023 AC Marina (55N) 60/2023 Georgetown (GED) 65/2019 Mount Pocono (MPO) 56/2014 Philadelphia (PHL) 62/2014 Reading (RDG) 64/2014 Trenton (TTN) 62/2014 Wilmington (ILG) 60/2014 Record High Temperatures April 15 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 86/1941 & 1994 AC Airport (ACY) 90/1967 AC Marina (55N) 86/1941 Georgetown (GED) 86/1960 & 2024 Mount Pocono (MPO) 82/1941 Philadelphia (PHL) 88/1941 Reading (RDG) 86/1941 & 1994 Trenton (TTN) 87/1994 Wilmington (ILG) 86/1896 Record Warmest Low Temperatures April 15 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 59/2002 AC Airport (ACY) 61/2002 AC Marina (55N) 59/2006 Georgetown (GED) 65/2002 Mount Pocono (MPO) 58/2002 Philadelphia (PHL) 64/2002 Reading (RDG) 64/1938 Trenton (TTN) 63/2002 Wilmington (ILG) 62/2002 Record High Temperatures April 16 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 90/2012 AC Airport (ACY) 89/2002 AC Marina (55N) 88/2002 Georgetown (GED) 89/2002 Mount Pocono (MPO) 85/2002 Philadelphia (PHL) 90/2002 Reading (RDG) 90/2012 Trenton (TTN) 91/2012 Wilmington (ILG) 92/1896 Record Warmest Low Temperatures April 16 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 60/1941 AC Airport (ACY) 62/2002 AC Marina (55N) 64/2002 Georgetown (GED) 65/2012 Mount Pocono (MPO) 56/2002 Philadelphia (PHL) 62/2002 Reading (RDG) 65/1941 Trenton (TTN) 62/2002 Wilmington (ILG) 63/2002 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DeSilva AVIATION...DeSilva MARINE...DeSilva  797 FXUS63 KIND 141905 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 305 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Active pattern this week with near daily chances for showers and storms. Friday likely to be the driest day of the week. - Scattered storms possible this afternoon and evening for Central and North Central Indiana, scattered severe possible. - Near record warm temperatures expected through Saturday with multiple days in the 80s and lows in the 60s. && .DISCUSSION (This evening through Tuesday)... Issued at 303 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 An MCS over the upper Mississippi Valley decayed over central IL early this morning, but its outflow boundary continued to push through central Indiana, of which led to isolated thunderstorms and showers north and west of Indianapolis. This boundary is now stalling over central IL as it interacts with modest SW flow ahead of a developing low pressure system. Visible satellite imagery is starting to define this boundary, of which is currently along a line from Bloomington to Terre Haute; this is supported by the mass fields in the surface analysis. North/East of this boundary there is still signals of some mid-level stability both in the cloud features and from ACAR sounding analysis at KIND. However to its South/West, modest moisture advection is aiding in quick destabilization showcased by areas of "popcorn" cumulus. Convective initiation is expected to begin over the next few hours over this area, quickly pushing eastward, reaching central Indiana between 4 and 6PM. Cells initially could begin elevated, but should quickly erode the weak cap and become surface based with progression. Parameter spacing for severe weather is rather robust today with an expected 2-3 kJ/kg of CAPE and greater than 40kt of effective shear. This should allow for organized/strong updrafts to develop with a broad risk of damaging wind gusts and large hail. While tornadoes are not the primary threat, there will be a chance of isolated tornadoes this evening. The primary concern will be with cells that become highly deviant along the aforementioned boundary and brief spin-ups within cell mergers. The severe threat should wane after 02Z as subsidence on the backside of the MCS increases convective inhibition. Focus will then turn to upstream convection over the western Great Lakes. The primary threat will likely stay well to the north overnight, but residual outflow boundaries tomorrow could focus initiation over northern portions of the area in the morning and early afternoon, with the thunderstorm threat continuing into the early evening. Confidence in specific locations for thunderstorms is low, and will greatly depend on the evolution and progression of upstream convection tonight. Instability will remain high tomorrow but shear will not be quite as organized leading to a lower overall severe threat, with a marginal threat of damaging winds and large hail for most of central Indiana. The active pattern will continue into the weekend with multiple waves bringing additional chances for storms then upper ridging expected to bring drier and cooler air for the start of the new week. Wednesday night will start off with an upper short wave tracking from the central plains to the Great Lakes with showers and storms along and ahead of the associated cold front. Main threats with this system will be lightning and stronger wind gusts mixing down within stronger storms. The persistent SW flow will prolong the above normal temperatures through Saturday as highs will range from the 70s to mid 80s and lows in the 50s to 60s. Friday will see a break in rain chances then a deep trough will prompt another round storms for Saturday. Models show that the surface low with this system will be unaligned and tracking ahead of its upper component. This will potentially make Saturday's system more diurnally driven rather than synoptically forced. At this time, strong deep layer flow will be parallel to the cold front which could be enough to form a line of storms with damaging winds being the main concern. Outside of storms, stronger gusts are likely Saturday and into Sunday since the elevated portion of the system will be lagging behind. General gusts Saturday could reach as high as 35-40 mph and around 25 mph on Sunday. There are still some differences on when the associated cold front would exit, but likely sometime late Saturday into the overnight hours, behind which cooler and below normal temperatures will return at least for the first couple of days of the new week. Lows Monday morning could be approaching near freezing to mid-30s. Surface high pressure behind the front looks to track over the Ohio Valley, allowing for dry weather for the start of the new week as well. && .AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 107 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Impacts: - Wind gusts up to 25 to 30kt likely through the period - Scattered convection at times, especially during the afternoon and evening hours Discussion: Scattered to broken low VFR cumulus will be around to start the period, but bases will rise during the afternoon. Scattered low level clouds will continue through the period, with some possibility of broken low VFR conditions returning Wednesday morning. Multiple boundaries through the period lead to a very uncertain convection forecast. Will put some PROB30s for a couple of periods where odds are higher. On Wednesday, the northern sites will have the most likely odds of convection. MVFR and worse conditions are possible in convection. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ AVIATION...50 DISCUSSION...KF/Updike  452 FXUS62 KMFL 141906 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 306 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New SHORT TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 305 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Reduced visibilities and air quality will be possible across portions of the Naples metro due to smoke from the Newman Fire. - Dangerous rip currents will continue at all east coast beaches of South Florida through at least Wednesday evening. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 305 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Model guidance show a rather complex weather pattern affecting the central and northern portions of the CONUS, while a contrasting broad/widespread ridging continues to dominate the SE CONUS and the Florida peninsula. The sfc ridge remains firmly in place around northern Florida. Overall, expect the ongoing warm and dry conditions to continue at least through the rest of the work week. 00Z MFL sounding and model sounding keep PWATs below 1 inch for the next several days. But latest radar data shows potential for a few, very shallow marine showers to make it into the east coast metro areas at times. These will be very brief and light. Also, periods of breezy ENE winds are also likely through early this evening, especially along Atlantic coastal locations. The prevailing easterly winds may push smoke from the Newman wildfire towards the Gulf shore and other surrounding areas. As a result of this, local air quality issues are likely and can impact sensitive groups as firefighters continue to work on mitigating the fire. Additionally, smoke can contribute to lower visibilities on roadways. Afternoon temps are expected to reach the low 80s for the Atlantic side of SoFlo, while interior and western portions should reach the upper 80s to low 90s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 125 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Long range ensembles show a shortwave trough advecting across the central U.S. for the end of this week and the shortwave attempts to break down the deep-layer ridge over the Southeast U.S. However, with the ridge being highly amplified, it will not break down entirely and rather just 'flatten' out to an extent. As the shortwave trough then curves off northwards, upper level ridging re- amplifies in conjunction with a deep-layer trough forming over the Great Lakes region this weekend. This trough is expected to be strong enough to the point where it forces a frontal boundary and some moisture into northern Florida and weakens the ridging pattern more substantially. However, ensembles still keep 500mb heights around the 75th percentile for this date range (April 18-20), hinting that the high pressure has a good chance to hold onto its control of the local weather. If this trend holds firm, mostly dry weather would be expected to continue minus some isolated shower activity occurring as a result of increased daytime high temperatures under the ridge pattern and an increase in moisture availability. As the frontal boundary washes out after it enters northern Florida, PWATs may rise back to climatological norms over the weekend and into next week (1.2-1.4") which can support some weak shower activity even under a high pressure pattern, particularly as a result of sea breeze circulations. Overall, most ensemble members and clusters at this time favor a drier solution for this weekend and into early next week, and even the wetter solutions do not favor a highly active period with total QPF for each 24-hour period being below 0.5". As a result, the latest forecast keeps conditions predominantly dry with only slight chances for some shower activity at the beginning of next week. High temperatures will continue to rise each day through the end of the week and into this weekend underneath this large ridging pattern as we see highs rise to the mid to upper 80s along the east coast metro, upper 80s to low 90s for the Gulf coast, and low to mid 90s over the interior by Friday and continuing into the weekend. Overnight lows are expected to range each night from the low 60s for the Gulf coast, interior, and lake regions to the upper 60s and low 70s for the east coast metro. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 102 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR prevails at all terminals during the next 24 hours as high pressure remains in control of the area. Winds remain gusty from the ENE through 00-01Z, then remaining moderate overnight. Another round of ENE breezy periods is expected after 15-16Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 125 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Winds decrease back to a moderate breeze beginning today, which is expected to last into the end of the week. Cautionary conditions are still expected with winds in the range of 15-20 kts, but advisory criteria is expected to be avoided. Seas of 4-6 feet expected in the local Atlantic waters and 2 feet or less in the Gulf waters. && .BEACHES... Issued at 125 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A high risk for rip currents continues through the middle of this week and may persist into the end of the week as brisk onshore flow continues. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 68 80 69 83 / 0 0 0 0 West Kendall 64 82 65 85 / 0 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 68 81 69 84 / 0 0 0 0 Homestead 68 80 69 83 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 69 79 70 81 / 0 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 68 79 70 81 / 0 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 69 83 70 85 / 0 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 67 79 67 81 / 0 0 0 0 Boca Raton 68 79 70 81 / 0 0 0 0 Naples 64 86 64 85 / 0 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for FLZ168-172- 173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Redman LONG TERM....Redman AVIATION...17  651 FXUS63 KGLD 141907 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 107 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Red Flag Warning is in effect for portions of the area Tuesday afternoon and evening, mainly along and south of I-70 where warm temps, low humidity and SW winds at 20-30 mph gusting to 45 mph may lead to rapid wildfire growth. - Rain showers and isolated storms are possible late this afternoon and evening mainly across the Tri-State border counties. Severe weather is unlikely but there is a 10% or less chance of a rogue wind gusts around 60 mph. - Breezy S to SW winds and critical fire weather possible over portions of the area, yet again, on Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 101 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Front is pushing south through the area with dew points increasing behind it. This front is forecast to start retreating back north through the day as a warm front. A developing surface low across Colorado will be the dictating feature that will determine when and the northern extent of this. Red Flag Warning will remain but have significant concerns for the duration of the northern and eastern extent of the warning due to timing of the retreating warm front. The strongest of the winds will be to the south of the warm front where winds remain from the WSW and winds gust around 40 mph. Late this afternoon and evening rainfall chances still look to increase with the warm front, additional lift due to the low and an approaching 500mb shortwave and associated jet streak. The favored area is across Yuma, Dundy and Cheyenne (KS) this evening where high based showers characterized by inverted v soundings are in place. I do have some concern for 50-60+ mph winds with any downdrafts. Winds also may be able to mix from pressure rises on its own as well as RAP and HRRR suggest 6-8mb rises over 3 hours with the GFS being the strongest at 10mb over 3 hours. Rain chances may extend a little further south but again will be dependent on the placement of the low and where the dry slot will set up. Guidance suggests that deep saturation and perhaps even the most favorable timeframe from light rain will occur early Wednesday morning through the early afternoon as the low continues to move through the area so have increased rain chances through the morning hours. Northwest flow is forecast to be in place through the day on Wednesday with high temperatures in the 70s. Guidance is coming into agreement on a tighter pressure gradient in wake of the low with wind gusts around 30 mph across the entire area. Due to the progression of the low am forecasting these winds to ease up in magnitude as the afternoon goes on. Thursday, surface troughing is forecast to be in place across the area. A very dry airmass is also forecast to be in place as well along with warm temperatures as high temperatures reach the 80s across the area. The combination of this is leading to high confidence in single digit humidity values for most if not all of the forecast area. Do have concerns for critical fire weather but at this time winds look to be fairly marginal. Am opting to forego any fire weather highlights at this time to ensure that the signal for winds remains and does not degrade which has been the trend over the past few days. Thursday night and into the extended period a strong cold front is forecast to move into the area shifting winds to the north. If there is a fire ongoing that is something to be aware of. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 208 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Upper-level troughing appears to be favored across the Western United States Thursday morning. Lee cyclogenesis is favored to take place across the North-Central High Plains through the afternoon. Additionally, GEFS guidance suggests an 850-mb high pressure will exist across the Southeastern United States, and back into Mexico and Baja California. These two features look to establish southerly to southwesterly surface flow across the forecast region Thursday afternoon, yielding warm and dry conditions. Forecast highs are currently in the mid-70s to mid-80s, with relative humidities (RH) in the upper single- digits to lower-teens. Critical fire weather conditions may be a concern during the afternoon and evening hours, with wind gusts forecast in the 25-40 mph range across most of the CWA. NBM guidance suggests over a 40% chance for wind gusts to meet criteria for critical fire weather conditions across most locations in the forecast region, with over a 90% chance across portions of Eastern Colorado. Further, LREF guidance suggests over a 90% chance for RH values to meet criteria for the hazard across portions of Eastern Colorado and West-Central Kansas during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Higher end scenarios would be associated with a stronger central low pressure across portions of Eastern Wyoming and Montana, and the Western Dakotas. Confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed Thursday afternoon is currently highest for portions of Eastern Colorado, around 30%. The upper-level trough from the west looks to move across the forecast region Friday, pushing a surface low pressure across the Central High Plains eastward. A strong cold front is favored to begin traversing the forecast region sometime between the afternoon and evening hours. Critical fire weather conditions are possible ahead of the cold front, though a slower eastward progression of the surface low would be required. About 60% of GEFS and EC members are in line with a slower cold front, which could be associated with some critical fire weather conditions across portions of West- Central Kansas and East Central Colorado. However, the 40% of members that show a faster cold front would mitigate the risk across this zone. A freeze, along with some snowfall may also be experienced with this cold front. Current forecast guidance suggests low temperatures in the lower-20s to lower-30s across the forecast region Friday night, with a 40-55% chance of light snow across portions of Eastern Colorado, far Southwest Nebraska, and far Northwest Kansas. NBM guidance suggests a 30-45% chance for the snowfall to be measurable (>0.1 inches) across this zone, with over a 75% chance for sub-freezing temperatures across most of the forecast area Friday night (nearly a 100% chance across portions of West Kansas, far Southwest Nebraska, and Eastern Colorado). Cooler conditions may continue into Saturday, with forecast high temperatures in the mid-50s to mid-60s during the afternoon. Critical fire weather conditions may be experienced Saturday afternoon as well, though is highly in question considering the lower temperatures. LREF guidance suggests about a 40-60% chance for RH values to meet critical fire weather criteria Saturday afternoon across most of Northwest Kansas and Eastern Colorado. By Sunday morning, upper-level troughing looks to be fully off to our east, with upper-level ridging approaching from the Western United States. This pattern favors a return of warm and dry conditions through the end of the forecast period Monday afternoon. Forecast high temperatures are in the low to mid-70s and upper-70s to lower-80s Sunday and Monday respectively. Relative humidities may drop into the low to mid-teens both Sunday and Monday, but is currently more confined to Eastern Colorado, far Southwest Nebraska, and far Northwest Kansas on Monday, as GEFS guidance indicates that the 850-mb high across Mexico and Baja California may erode and allow a better moisture return from the Gulf of America. Forecast wind gusts in the 25-40 mph range both days may indicate further risks for critical fire weather conditions. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1113 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A warm front is forecast to retreat through each terminal this afternoon which will lead to a period of light and variable winds; the front is forecast to move through GLD enough that winds are forecast to become a bit more southwesterly with gusts around 25 knots. A developing low pressure system late this afternoon and evening will lead to increase rain chances and continued breezy winds, before the breezy winds develop LLWS will be a concern. Rain chances at favored at KMCK Wednesday morning. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for KSZ013>016-027>029-041-042. CO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ253-254. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Trigg LONG TERM...Davis AVIATION...Trigg  680 FXUS61 KBTV 141908 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 308 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 307 PM EDT Tuesday... Rutland and Windsor counties are in a severe thunderstorm watch until 02 UTC and updated with enhanced wording. Reduced areal coverage of small hail/gusty wind wording across our central area, given the lack of instability and clouds. Also, added fog into the grids tonight. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 307 PM EDT Tuesday... 1. Monitoring the potential for strong to locally severe thunderstorms across Rutland and Windsor counties thru 8 PM this evening. 2. Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected Wednesday through Friday, as boundary remains draped across our forecast area. 3. Warm and breezy weather for Saturday, then rainy Saturday night through Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... As of 307 PM EDT Tuesday... KEY MESSAGE 1: Radar imagery shows clutter of moderate showers with embedded rumbles moving into the CPV, while Rutland/Windsor counties are in the warm sector with temps well into the mid/upper 70s. A sharp boundary remains draped acrs our cwa this aftn, which is separating temps in the 50s north to mid 70s south, along with favorable llvl convergence and turning of wind profiles. GOES-19 mid lvl water vapor imagery indicates embedded 700-500mb vort approaching the SLV attm, with strong synoptic scale ascent helping with the development of cooler/higher cloud tops. Meso-analysis shows sfc based CAPE values in the 500 to 800 J/kg over Rutland/Windsor Counties, while best 0-1km SRH and 0-3KM SRH values are located just north over central VT, closer to the stronger wind fields and llvl boundary. Given the limited areal coverage of instability and extensive cloud cover, feel the best potential for a strong to severe thunderstorm is over Rutland/Windsor Counties thru 7 PM this evening. Primary threat would be isolated damaging wind gusts, but there still is a non zero threat for a potential weak/isolated tornado acrs the southern CPV thru early this evening. Pw values are btwn 1.0 to 1.4" range, so localized heavy downpours are likely with rainfall amounts in the 0.25 to 0.75" range, but isolated spots near 1.0. Tonight, any shower activity should be east of our cwa by 9 PM with strong subsidence inversion developing behind s/w energy. This large area of drying evident on water vapor wl result in plenty of low level stratus clouds overnight with some areas of fog likely, especially in climo favored areas. Even some fog is possible in the CPV, as strong blocked flow develops with light north winds behind rain this evening, which wl act to saturate boundary layer conditions. Lows similar to last night in the mid 40s to mid 50s. KEY MESSAGE 2: Little change is expected in the large scale synoptic pattern acrs the Great Lakes into the NE CONUS for Weds thru Friday, as westerly flow aloft with embedded s/w's continue to impact our fa. Mid/upper lvl ridge prevails over the SE CONUS, while trof is lingering over central-eastern Canada, helping to enhance fast 700- 500mb flow acrs our cwa. Given limited amplification, expect stationary boundary to remained draped acrs our cwa, supporting warmest temps over Rutland/Windsor Counties and coolest near the International Border. Always challenging to determine amount of cloud cover/instability in the pattern, as soundings show plenty of llvl moisture below 850mb lingering on Weds and again on Thurs for most of the day. Greatest potential for a few embedded rumbles of thunder wl be Essex County, NY into central/southern VT each aftn. The latest trends have better probability of sfc based CAPE values >500 J/kg mostly south of our cwa on Weds, as deep layer moisture prevails acrs our cwa. Temps mainly in the mid 50s MSS to mid 70s VSF, but this could be high, as outflow from this evenings convection and clouds could produce cooler temps in the CT River Valley on Weds. Little change in temps are expected on Thurs as another embedded s/w and weak 1004mb low pres tracks along llvl thermal boundary to produce more showers and embedded thunderstorms. If more sun develops than anticipated temps could be well into the 70s on Thurs, especially given progged 925mb temps in the 12-17C range. Pw values in the 1.0 to 1.30" does support localized heavy downpours are possible, both Weds and Thurs afternoon, and given multiple rounds of precip, combined with some additional high elevation snowmelt, some sharp rises on central/northern waterways are likely thru Friday. No flooding is expected, but high flows wl need to be watched. KEY MESSAGE 3: The weather pattern remains active going into the weekend, but any threat for hazardous conditions remains low. The next system to impact our area will take the form of a strengthening surface low lifting northeastward through southeastern Canada. Ahead of the low, temperatures will be warmer than normal for Saturday amid the increasing southerly flow, especially over our western counties. High temps will be in the mid 60s to low 70s, with breezy south winds increasing through the day. The best window for increased south winds will occur late Saturday into Saturday night, before the steady rain begins. The south/southwest orientation of the low-level jet will favor gusty winds over the Saint Lawrence Valley, off the northern slopes of the Adirondacks, and channelled up the northern Champlain Valley, where gusts in the range of 20 to 30+ knots are possible...locally higher over the Saint Lawrence Valley. The cold front will move through from west to east Saturday night into Sunday, bringing a widespread soaking rainfall. The timing of the frontal passage will limit destabilization, thus limiting in turn thunderstorm potential. National Blend of Models thunderstorm probabilities cap out on Sunday under 10%. While our QPF forecast does not extend through Sunday, probabilistic data points to the most likely QPF range from Saturday night through Sunday between 0.25 and 0.5 inch, which would not create widespread hydro concerns. A look at the MMEFS ensemble river forecasts for the longer range show rises in rivers towards the end of the week into the weekend, but these rises remain well within banks. Given the multiple chances for rain coming up, we will continue to keep a close eye on rivers but no issues are currently anticipated. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 18Z Wednesday...Showers with embedded thunderstorms will continue to move through the forecast area this afternoon into this evening. The highest instability remains over our southern counties, so have limited mention of thunderstorms to just the KRUT and KSLK TAFs, where confidence is the highest. Thunderstorm threat will be highest through 21Z at KRUT, and through 20Z at KSLK, afterwhich showers will continue but thunderstorm threat diminishes. Showers will generally come to an end between 22Z and 04Z, followed by lowering ceilings through the remainder of the night as low-level moisture is trapped under a inversion. This will lead to widespread IFR ceilings between 08Z and 14Z, with some areas of LIFR ceilings possible. Visibilities may also lower with some mist around, but confidence is lower on reduced visibilities than reduced ceilings. Nevertheless, cannot alltogether rule out some visibilities below 1SM, especially between 09Z and 12Z at KSLK and/or KMPV. Winds will be quite variable across the forecast area with a slow moving frontal boundary draped overhead. Most TAF sites will see winds initially start from the south around 5-10 knots, becoming southwest/west toward 00Z, and then light and variable towards 12Z. Some gusts 15 to 20 knots are expected through 00Z. One exception will be KMSS, where lightnortheast/north winds will prevail the entire TAF period. Another exception will be the northern Champlain Valley including KBTV and KPBG, which are starting off with winds from the northwest and northeast respectively, but will both see winds trend light and variable after 00Z. Outlook... Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday: MVFR. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHRA. Sunday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA. && .CLIMATE... As of 344 AM EDT Tuesday... Incoming warmer air is presently forecast to approach daily record values. The most likely dates for near or broken records will be today with mild overnight air leading to high minimum temperatures. Below are some of the daily records in jeopardy of being broken (current forecast at or within 3 degrees of the record). Record High Minimum Temperatures: April 14: KBTV: 54/2023 KPBG: 51/1964 KSLK: 47/1964 && .EQUIPMENT... The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service. This site is not serviced by the NWS. An estimated return to service is May 1st. Please contact us if you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational forecast. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Taber DISCUSSION...Duell/Taber AVIATION...Duell CLIMATE...NWS BTV EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV  446 FXUS63 KDTX 141912 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 312 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Stretch of warm conditions throughout the work week with daytime temperatures in the 70s each day for most locations. - Potential exists for thunderstorms to develop tonight, mainly between 8 pm and 3 am. Storms may become severe, capable of producing wind gusts to 60 mph, large hail and isolated tornadoes. - There is a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms Wednesday and still another round of storms possible Thursday. - Each episode of storms brings the possibility for locally heavy rainfall. A Flood Watch is in effect for all areas tonight through Thursday night. && .DISCUSSION... Evening/Early Tonight Severe Storm Potential- Enhanced risk south of I-69, Slight Risk north of I-69: Remnant MCV over northern Indiana that generated a few light showers near the state border is pushing east of the region this afternoon and most importantly, its associated cloud shield is likewise peeling away. Increasing insolation supports destabilization through the late afternoon-early evening period with CAMs advertising a southwesterly gradient from Grand Rapids to Detroit where 1000-2000 J/kg of SBCAPE to develops along/south. Additionally stalled frontal boundary is lingering near the northern portions of the Saginaw Valley this evening. These two features are the first to watch before the arrival of then ongoing upstream convection from WI/IA late evening. For the southern CAPE gradient, the fairly weak cap looks to effectively erode between 00-02Z supporting isolated to perhaps scattered convective initiation over areas south of M-59. For the stalled Tri-Cities frontal boundary, its associated initiation depends on enough instability lifting that north which favors a window more 01-03Z. Discrete storms that do manage to fire in either region occur early enough to be fully surface based and be working with at least 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE (likely more for the southern storms) and very steep mid-level lapse rates between 7.5- 8C/km. Additionally wind profiles/hodographs show healthy curvature in the lowest 1-2kft leading to between 100-200 m2/s2 of SRH and 0- 1km bulk shear values nearing 25kts. All together, near-sunset environment is favorable for surface-based storms with all hazards in play, though exactly how much initiation actually occurs is unclear. While the above is (potentially) occuring, upstream convection undergoes upscale growth while crossing from WI into west MI feed by a 45-55kt southwesterly LLJ congealing into a line of storms (wind feed isn't particularly strong true MCS development). Line motion is favored to trend southerly given the CAPE gradient and southwesterly inflow. Worth noting there is a subset of CAMs like the 06Z HRDPS and 12Z ARW that favor more robust development along the southerly flank resulting in the main line push dropping southeast over northern IL/IN instead of SE MI. That said, current forecast remains with the main line dropping NW-SE across the local area late evening-early tonight, 03-07Z. Overnight arrival lends concern for the ability for the line to maintain itself both in strength and a surface layer root due to decreasing available nocturnal instability and only modest inflow winds. Should anything maintain a surface connection, damaging wind gusts and an isolated QLCS tornado would be the main hazards as low level winds maintain favorable curvature in advance of the line. Wednesday- Marginal Risk of Severe: Exactly how Wednesday morning plays out depends on the behavior of this evening's convection and where the line eventually peters out- either over far southern SE MI or over OH. The line pushing fully into OH keeps the first half of the morning drier. Regardless, the local area remains entrenched in this mild/moist airmass with continuing deep layer southwesterly flow. No strong forcing mechanism to speak of Wednesday with embedded PV anomalies instead lifting into the state and spurring clusters of showers and thunderstorms. Airmass is conducive for instability to rebound back near 1000 J/kg by afternoon with bulk shear remaining near 30-40kts offering a shot an isolated storm borderline severe storm. Damaging wind gusts are main hazard, hail threat is hampered by anemic mid- level lapse rates near or below 6C/km. Thursday- Marginal Risk south of M-59: Central Plains mid-level trough eventually lifts into the central Great Lakes providing stronger synoptic support for increasing shower coverage late Wednesday night-Thursday morning. Wave provides stronger wind profiles pushing shear values towards 40-45kts. Inhibiting factor for storms is overnight arrival of the wave with showers ongoing through the day reducing diurnal destabilization potential. Peak CAPE generally favored to hold in the 500-1000 J/kg range and focused towards the state border where 'best' chances for an isolated strong storm will reside. Shortwave eventually kicks east Thursday night tapering off lingering showers. Flooding Concerns- Flood Watch for all SE MI till Thursday night: Spring thus far has already been quite wet for much of the area with all 3 climate sites sitting above normal since March 1st: Saginaw +4.30", Flint +3.78", Detroit +0.88". In the past 10 days, all but the southern portions of Lenawee/Monroe have seen between 1.5-4.5", highest values north of M-59 where areal/river flooding occurred last week. Humid airmass maintains PWAT values around 1.3" tonight through the day Wednesday before nudging higher towards 1.5-1.6" Wednesday night-Thursday. With multiple additional rounds of showers and storms this evening through Thursday evening, QPF forecasts within that timeframe are between 1-3" though higher amounts around 4" are possible depending on thunderstorm coverage and tracks. Given the antecedent conditions with this forecast, a Flood Watch has been issued for all of SE MI through Thursday evening. Late Week: Mid-level ridging works across the central Great Lakes daytime Friday finally provides a reprieve from rainy weather. This however is shortlived as a broad mid-upper trough digs out of the northern Rockies into the upper Midwest/northern Great Lakes. Attendant surface low sends a respectable cold front through the local area Saturday-Saturday night. Additional showers and thunderstorms are likely in advance with afternoon arrival currently favored. Region is outlooked in a Day 5 15% risk due to the strong wind profile and modest diurnal destabilization potential. Much cooler air follows as 850mb temps fall from +14C Saturday to -8C by Sunday morning and eventually -10 Sunday night as the core of thermal troughing crosses. This results in overnight lows Sunday night below freezing in the upper 20s to around 30F. Given the warm stretch this week, growing season is likely to have started for most of the area which would warrant frost/freeze headlines. && .MARINE... Surface warm front has lifted back toward Saginaw Bay, with southwest flow to the south of the front and east flow for points north. Patchy fog persists over portions of Lake Huron north of the front, but overall dry weather is in place. The next round of thunderstorms is expected to develop over northern IL/WI late this afternoon and track east-southeast into the local waterways overnight as a line. Strong to severe storms are expected mainly after 04z (midnight local time), with potential for damaging wind gusts over 50 knots, large hail over 1 inch, and isolated waterspouts. This line of storms exits east around sunrise Wednesday, but unsettled conditions are expected to continue into the weekend. Each round of thunderstorm activity brings potential for localized erratic waves and gusty winds. Widespread headlines are not expected. && .HYDROLOGY... Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms start this evening and continue off-on through Thursday evening. Each episode brings the possibility for locally heavy rainfall, particularly where focused areas of thunderstorms develop, which offers flooding concerns given the already wet spring and saturated soils. Forecast rainfall totals from tonight to Thursday night range 1-3" across SE MI with potential for 4" dependent on coverage/track of thunderstorms each episode. A Flood Watch is in effect for the entirety of the region into late Thursday night as a result. Widespread flooding chances are tied if areas see repeated thunderstorms and carry low confidence in occurrence, however flooding of low-lying, poor drainage, and urban areas are likely as is creek and river flooding. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 1255 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 AVIATION... Broad region of subsidence entrenched within a thicker high based cloud will maintain VFR conditions with limited convective potential through early this evening. Late day winds holding from the west to southwest, with some intervals of gustiness into the 25 knot range. Thunderstorm initiation and expansion expected upstream again early tonight. This activity will shift into lower Michigan overnight, most likely within the 03z to 08z window for an arrival locally. Overall scale and magnitude still carries some uncertainty, but enough confidence in tsra occurrence to highlight at all locations. Forecast will allow for dry conditions to emerge within the immediate wake for the latter half of the morning, but some renewed expansion in showers and thunderstorms will be possible depending on convective evolves tonight. DTW/D21 Convection...Dry conditions favored into the evening hours. Highest likelihood for thunderstorms will exist between 04z and 09z tonight. DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Low for ceilings aob 5000 ft through this evening. High tonight. Low again Wednesday morning. * Medium for thunderstorms tonight between 04z and 09z. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through late Thursday night for MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KDK MARINE.......MV HYDROLOGY....KDK AVIATION.....MR You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.  738 FXUS66 KSTO 141913 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 1213 PM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing. .KEY MESSAGES... - Quick moving system Wednesday-Thursday brings light mountain rain/snow, followed by gusty north winds in the Valley on Thursday. - Dry weather late week into the weekend with near to above normal temperatures. - Next weather system brings increasing rain/mountain snow chances and breezy to gusty winds Sunday into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... ...Today... As NorCal sits between the departing trough from the weekend and an approaching trough digging across the Pacific Northwest, a period of dry weather and breezy southerly winds remains on track for the remainder of today. Despite mostly sunny skies, high temperatures look to remain below normal, with upper 60s to low 70s across the Valley and 50s to low 60s at higher elevations. A slight chance for a light shower or two will be possible this evening across northern Shasta County with the approaching trough, but minimal impacts are expected. ...Midweek... Moving into Wednesday, shower chances are expected to gradually increase across Shasta County and the surrounding terrain by mid morning, with rain and light mountain snow showers spreading toward mountain locations north of Highway 50 throughout the day. Snow levels look to remain above 6000 feet through Wednesday, rapidly falling overnight into Thursday morning. Despite this, most precipitation is anticipated through Wednesday evening. Given the progressive nature of the system, NBM probabilities of rainfall greater than 0.25" remain around 30-50%, highest across the Shasta County terrain. Accumulating snowfall of a dusting to an inch will generally be confined to locations above 6000 feet. As dry weather continues at lower elevations through this event, increasing north to east winds are looking likely as the system departs on Thursday. Current forecast trends indicate a slight southward shift in the expected midweek trough, which is expected to introduce a slight uptick in winds further southward to include the entire Sacramento Valley and the Delta. Wind gusts 25 to 35 mph are generally expected, although NBM probabilities of gusts up to 40 mph around 30-50% do exist for locations along and west of the Interstate 5 corridor and north of Highway 50. ...Late Week into the Weekend... As the midweek system continues to eject eastward through the end of the week, breezy north winds are likely to persist on Friday before trending lighter by the weekend. Dry weather is expected to persist on Friday and Saturday as a brief period of ridging aloft builds in over the weekend. This will allow temperatures to return to near to above normal through the first half of the weekend with some Minor HeatRisk possible on Saturday from Sacramento southward. Ensemble guidance does indicate another deepening trough arriving Sunday into early next week. While ensemble guidance is in general agreement that this system will introduce additional periods of active weather, there remain some notable timing differences on when precipitation impacts are expected to begin a this time. Regardless, increasing chances for rain/mountain snow, isolated thunderstorms, and periods of breezy onshore winds are anticipated by at least early next week. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours. Surface winds in the Valley will be breezy out of the west to southwest in the Sacramento Valley and north to northwest in the northern San Joaquin Valley until around 06Z Wednesday. Surface winds then expected below 12kts. There is a 10-20% chance of low clouds developing in the central/southern Sacramento Valley tomorrow morning between 14-18Z, however confidence is low. A weak system will introduce isolated light precipitation over the northern Sacramento Valley and mountains/foothills after 18Z Wednesday with a 5-10% chance for isolated mountain thunderstorms which may lead to periods of MVFR/IFR conditions. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$  745 FXUS64 KSJT 141914 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 214 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New SHORT TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorm chances will persist into Wednesday, with a threat for severe storms each day. - A cold front is expected on Saturday, bringing low rain chances and considerably cooler temperatures for the upcoming weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 213 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...Severe Storms possible this afternoon and evening.. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop off a dryline...in the eastern Permian Basin south to the Big Bend this afternoon. These storms have the potential for severe weather as they move northeast and east into the evening. A mesoscale discussion has been issued by SPC that includes portions of the Big Country, Concho Valley and Crockett county for an 80 percent chance of a watch. Instability is high at 3000 J/KG. Very large hail of 2-3 inch diameter and severe winds possible along with isolated tornadoes. Later tonight after midnight, some of the shortterm convective models also have a second group of showers and thunderstorms, probably with an upper level disturbance. These storms become isolated by Wednesday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 116 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 There is a slight chance for isolated thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. Although we will likely cap rain chances at 20% with this activity without much in the way of forcing, or upper level support in our area. There is a better chance of more widespread coverage to our north, and in fact there is a Slight Risk for severe weather north of Interstate 20 in our area, with a Marginal Risk for the rest of the CWA. The main concerns with any storms tomorrow afternoon/evening will be large hail and damaging wind gusts. Thursday and Friday look to be quieter than the past few days, with weaker upper level, and only weak upper level shortwave energy moving through. In addition to the lack of rainfall, temperatures will surge into the mid to upper 80s. Friday night into Saturday, a strong upper level trough will move through the northern and central plains and then into the Great Lakes region. A strong cold front will move into west-central Texas after midnight, moving south of I-10 by mid morning Saturday. Although upper level support for convection will be north of our area, the lift along the cold front may be enough to support a line of showers and thunderstorms along and behind the front as it moves through. Much cooler temperatures are expected Saturday through early next week. After highs in the mid 80s to around 90 degrees on Saturday, we are expecting highs in the mid 60s to around 70 Saturday through Monday. Could see additional precipitation chances by next Monday as upper level shortwave energy moves through and interacts with warm air advection starting back up. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1247 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 MVFR stratus will dissipate this afternoon, holding on the longest in southern terminals, including KSOA and KJCT until mid afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms may affect the terminals tonight, mainly after 00Z/Wednesday. IFR stratus otherwise returns along to KSOA and KJCT toward or just after midnight, with MVFR stratus returning late tonight across the rest of the terminals. IFR/MVFR stratus scatters out mid/late morning at KABI and KSJT, but may persist into early afternoon for southern terminals. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 65 84 62 87 / 50 30 10 0 San Angelo 63 84 61 87 / 40 30 10 10 Junction 62 79 60 86 / 40 40 10 10 Brownwood 64 80 62 86 / 50 50 20 0 Sweetwater 65 86 61 88 / 50 20 0 0 Ozona 63 82 61 84 / 50 30 20 10 Brady 64 79 62 84 / 50 40 20 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....20 AVIATION...04  927 FXUS63 KDLH 141915 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN Issued by National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 215 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Additional dense fog possible overnight into Wednesday morning, especially near the Lake Shore. - Scattered thunderstorms likely on Friday. A few storms could be strong to severe. - Colder late Friday and into Saturday, with rain changing to snow possible. Any snow accumulation would be light. The chance for travel impacts is low. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1259 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Current Conditions/Today and Tonight: Early afternoon radar and and satellite imagery showed an area of showers with embedded thunderstorms across the arrowhead of Minnesota. These were located ahead of a compact little shortwave trough that was skirting along the MN/CA border. For the rest of the afternoon and evening, expect dry conditions as this system exits to the east. Meanwhile, wind remain fairly light under the influence of a baggy pressure gradient, and that will set the stage for another night of low clouds and fog. Wednesday/Thursday: A couple of days of dry and warm weather are in store for the Northland on Wednesday and Thursday. Wednesday could start out cloudy and foggy, so temperatures depend on how quickly we can clear out. On Thursday, an area of low pressure will organize across the High Plains, and this will bring southerly winds across the region. Current humidity forecast is around 30 to 35 percent, so will have to watch the trends for fire weather concerns. Otherwise expect spring-like weather with highs in the 60s to near 70, except along Lake Superior. Friday/Monday: This low pressure system across the High Plains will track eastward on Friday as a longwave trough amplifies over the central CONUS. That will bring surge of warm and moist air across the Upper Midwest, while drier moves on top of it. This will set the stage for thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening ahead of an approaching cold front. As of now, the most likely area for storms is along I-35 and east. A few storms could be strong to severe owing to the favorable deep layer shear and 1000 to 2000 J/kg of instability. The primary threat will probably be severe hail, but there is a wind threat given the unidirectional shear profile. In the wake of this front, expect much cooler temperatures as northwest wind ushers a return arctic air. Meanwhile the overall storm system will become better organized, and an area of deformation precipitation will develop Friday night into Saturday. Thermal profiles support a rain-to-snow transition. Any snow accumulation should be less than an inch of slushy wet snow on grassy surfaces. One would expect lesser snow amounts if this falls during the day on Saturday given the April sun angle and warm pavement temperatures. Snow will end Saturday night, but the cool air will last through the weekend with highs in the lower 40s Sunday and lower 50s Monday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Challenging forecast with light winds, low clouds, and pockets of fog lingering across the region. For the rest of today, expect MVFR/IFR stratus to persist across the Minnesota TAF sites, but could have a few hours of VFR conditions this afternoon at KHYR. Overnight a weak pressure gradient will linger across the region, meaning light winds and similar weather conditions, so brought back the IFR/LIFR ceilings and visbys tonight into Wednesday morning. The precipitation chances have ended, so did not include any mention of rain in the TAFs. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 212 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Scattered rain and thunderstorms are no longer expected today, as they have shifted to the northeast. There is still dense fog. For the next few days, winds will be light. Waves will be less than 2 feet both Wednesday and Thursday. On Friday, southerly winds will bring high waves along the north shore. A strong cold front will bring northwest winds Friday night into Saturday, with waves 3 to 5 feet or higher, especially along the south shore on Saturday. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 212 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The fire weather risk is low today and Wednesday. The rest of today will have high RH today due to low clouds and high RH. On Wednesday, RH will be a bit lower, but winds will remain light. On Thursday, southerly winds will increase to around 20 mph and RH values will drop to around 30 to 35 percent. Southerly winds will be stronger on Friday, but humidity will increase. A cold front will pass through on Saturday and bring northwest winds and cooler temperatures for the weekend. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...WFO MPX AVIATION...WFO MPX MARINE...WFO DLH FIRE WEATHER...WFO DLH  706 FXUS65 KBYZ 141915 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 115 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Storm system late Wednesday into Friday. Widespread rain potentially transitioning to snow over the lower elevations Thursday. An inch or less of snow expected for lower elevations. - Moderate to heavy snow for area mountain ranges. 40-90% chance for greater than 12 inches of snow for the Absaroka/Beartooth and Crazy mountains. <10% chance for the Bighorn Mountains. - Warmer and Dry this Weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Through Tuesday... Breezy winds are expected over the foothills west of Billings Wednesday as 40 kt upper level winds mix to the surface. These locations have a 20-60% chance of seeing a wind gust over 50 mph with the highest chances being in the Livingston area. Breezy winds then spread across the region Thursday with all locations seeing wind gusts in the 30s and 40s mph. Upper level troughing moves into the region bringing a range of impacts late Wednesday through Friday. Some details are more certain while others are less certain with this system. Among the things that are more certain include a cold frontal passage Thursday changing precipitation from rain to snow (or rain/snow mix), and the highest precipitation amounts over the mountains and foothills. Less certain is exactly when the cold front will occur and how much temperatures will drop. This will determine when the change to snow will occur and if it will be snow or a rain/snow mix. Heavy snow is expected for the Absaroka/Beartooth and Crazy mountains as they have a 40-90% chance of getting greater than 12 inches of snow. Lower snowfall totals are expected for the Bighorn mountains as they have a 70-90% chance of getting greater than 6 inches of snow. Lower elevations are not expected to receive heavy snow with these areas having a less than 20% chance of getting greater than 2 inches of snow. Overall, minor winter impacts are expected for the lower elevations. Lingering precipitation chances exit the region by Friday night as warmer and drier conditions return for the weekend. After having high temperatures in the 40s F Thursday and Friday, 60s F are expected by Sunday with 70s F Monday and Tuesday with continued dry conditions. Torgerson .AVIATION... A few showers are possible over and near the southern mountains/foothills and VC KSHR this afternoon. Local MVFR and some mountain obscurations are possible with the showers. Winds will remain breezy at times along the western foothills through the period, from KLVM to K6S0 and KHWQ. Wednesday morning, snow showers will move in over the Absaroka/Beartooth mountains causing occasional mountain obscuration. STP/Archer && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 041/067 038/047 026/046 027/057 035/069 040/077 045/072 01/B 58/W 44/J 21/U 00/U 01/B 13/W LVM 038/060 029/041 021/043 023/054 030/064 037/070 041/067 05/W 99/J 56/J 20/U 00/U 01/B 24/W HDN 037/070 038/050 025/046 024/056 028/069 036/079 042/075 11/B 48/W 54/J 21/U 00/U 00/U 13/W MLS 039/067 039/050 024/041 021/051 027/065 037/075 043/074 01/B 25/W 31/B 01/U 00/U 00/U 11/U 4BQ 037/068 041/056 025/040 020/048 027/065 036/076 045/074 00/U 14/W 63/J 11/U 00/U 00/U 12/W BHK 037/068 039/054 023/038 019/046 025/063 034/070 041/071 00/U 03/W 52/J 01/U 00/U 00/U 01/B SHR 032/066 037/049 023/038 019/049 025/064 034/073 039/071 00/B 29/W 87/J 21/U 00/U 00/U 13/W && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Winter Storm Watch in effect from Wednesday evening through late Thursday night FOR ZONE 67. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings  268 FXUS63 KTOP 141915 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 215 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... -A similar setup to yesterday means another Red Flag Warning behind the dryline and a threat for severe storms east of the boundary today. -Another round of storms is possible Wednesday, mainly in far eastern KS. -A very dynamic system impacts the region Friday, bringing another threat for severe weather. -Much cooler weather is expected this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 151 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Early this afternoon, water vapor satellite imagery showed an upper level trough extending from the central Rockies, southwest across AZ. A broad area of southwesterly mid-level flow of 45 to 60 KTS extended from northern Mexico, northeast across NM/west TX into the Plains and upper Midwest. Late this morning, a cold front extended from eastern MN, south- southwest across eastern NE, then southwest into eastern CO. A dryline line extended south-southwest from the cold front in eastern NE, to east of Marysville, to near ABI, then south-southwest to west of Anthony, KS, then southwest across far western OK. Ahead of the dryline dewpoints were in the lower to mid 60s, with upper 60 to lower 70 dewpoints across southeast KS. West of the dryline, dewpoints were in the lower 40s to lower 50s. Thia afternoon through Tonight: Interesting that the most CAMs are showing the richer moisture mixing out ahead of the dryline along and north of I-70. The richer surface moisture may only extend from near ICT, northeast across the southeast counties of the CWA, to the southeast of I-35. However, the NSSL-WRF and 4KM NAM shows thunderstorms developing along the dryline between Seneca and MHK. The other CAMs show thunderstorms developing along the dryline across north central OK/south central KS, then tracking northeast along and southeast of I-35. A surface low will deepen across western KS, thus the dryline will probably reach a Seneca, to MHK, to Abilene line by 5 PM before retrograding west this evening. Any discrete supercell that develops along the dryline late this afternoon and early evening will produce large hail, 2 inches or greater, localized damaging wind gusts, along with possible tornadoes. The environment ahead of the dryline south of I-70, will posses MLCAPES of 3000-3500 J/kg, effective shear of 50 KTS, and curved low-level hodographs that will produce stream-wise horizontal vorticity in the sfc-1KM depth for strong low-level vertical vorticity, once a storm's updraft tilts the horizontal vorticity into the vertical, then stretched. We will be doing a 19Z special sounding to see if some of the CAMs are correct in mixing out the richer moisture north of I-70 ahead of the dryline. Overall, I would say storm coverage will be greater south of I-70 with initial discrete supercells late this afternoon into the early evening, then line segments developing as scattered supercells merge, along with line segments from merging supercells across south central/north central OK that will move northeast across the southeast counties during the mid and late evening hours. Tonight, the dryline will retrograde west into north central and central KS. I can't rule out some isolated elevated thunderstorms late tonight into early Wednesday, as a 50 to 60 KT LLJ develops through the early morning hours, which could provide enough ascent for a few elevated storms. Wednesday through Wednesday night: The H5 trough across the central Rockies and southwest US will lift northeast across the Plains but will dampen as it moves east. The surface low will move northeast along the border into west central IA by 00Z. A Pacific cold front will overtake the dryline. The question will be how fast will the Pacific front shift east across the CWA. The NAM, ECMWF, and GFS show the Pacific front across most of the CWA by 21Z. Thunderstorms may develop across the southeast counties, but veering surface winds will probably cause a line of storms to develop. This line may produce isolated severe wind gusts in the southeast counties but most of the severe weather will be east of the CWA. Thursday, we will see a break in the thunderstorms, as an amplified H5 trough digs southeast from the Pacific northwest into the west central US. A down stream H5 ridge will move east across the Plains. The Pacific front will undergo frontolysis across southeast KS and northern OK on Thursday. The winds will become southerly through the day on Thursday. Friday through Saturday morning: The H5 trough across the west central US will dig southeast across the Plains Friday night into Saturday morning. Ahead of the H5 trough in the warm sector, thunderstorms will develop along the cold front and dryline during the afternoon hours. MLCAPE will probably be above 2000 J/KG and there will be good vertical wind shear as the the surface low deepens across west central KS during the afternoon hours. All the longer range models are in agreement though the GFS is a bit more amplified and progressive over the ECMWF and Canadian. The question will be the strength of forcing ahead of the H5 Trough. Strong ascent may allow for numerous storms to develop and these storms may congeal into a line of storms during the afternoon and evening hours. The line will move east out of the CWA late Friday night into Early Saturday morning. The weekend will be cooler behind the front with highs Saturday in the mid to upper 50s. There may be some light rain showers through the morning until the H5 trough shifts east of KS. More insolation will help high temperatures to warm into the mid 60s to around 70 degrees. Sunday morning there may be a freeze across the northern counties with lows of 29-30 degrees. The remainder of The CWA may see frost develop with lows of 33 to 36 degrees. An H5 ridge will move east across the Plains Monday and Tuesday. Expect a warm-up with highs in the lower to mid 70s Monday and mid 70s to around 80 on Tuesday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1238 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 There will be a better chance for thunderstorms this evening across the KTOP and KFOE terminals, so I left in the prob30 for thunderstorms between 00Z-04Z. I placed in VCTS for MHK for this evening. Winds should stay remain from the south-southwest through the 24 hours taf period in the 12 to 22 KTS with gusts of 22 to 28 KTS. So, I will not place in low-level windshear. There may be a few hours of BKN MVFR ceilings betweeen 11Z and 14Z WED. But confidence is low to place in the TAF. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 345 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The Red Flag Warning has been issued for today in north- central KS due to low RH and strong south-southwest winds behind the dryline. These conditions will combine to create extreme fire danger again this afternoon. Minimum RH behind the dryline could quickly fall to below 20 percent as dew points drop. South- southwest winds will be sustained at 15 to 20 mph with gusts as high as 40 mph throughout the afternoon. Tomorrow a Pacific cold front will move through north central KS. The dewpoints will only be around 30 percent during the afternoon hours and westerly winds will be lighter. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008-KSZ020- KSZ034. && $$ DISCUSSION...Gargan AVIATION...Gargan FIRE WEATHER...Teefey/Gargan  455 FXUS64 KCRP 141917 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 217 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 214 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Moderate Rip Current Risk today through Wednesday and may continue into the weekend. - Minor coastal flooding possible the latter part of the week into the weekend. - Shower and thunderstorm chances increase this weekend with the arrival of a cold front. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 214 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Isolated weak showers currently streaming northward across the Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads will diminish this afternoon the redevelop starting early Wednesday morning. These weak showers will likely only produce trace amounts and most locations will remain dry. An isolated shower or thunderstorm could clip the area around Cotulla on Wednesday as a storm system tracks across north and central Texas. Overall, the work week still looks to be generally dry with above normal temperatures and breezy afternoons. The strongest S-SE winds are expected Friday, which will usher deeper moisture across S TX. The next chance of showers and thunderstorms with measurable rainfall is Saturday and Sunday. This is due to a cold front approaching the area Saturday, moving through S TX Saturday night, then overrunning conditions setting up behind the front Sunday. A few elevated embedded storms remain possible on Sunday. As for the probability, chances are low (10-20%) across the northern portions of the Brush Country and Victoria Crossroads Saturday afternoon, then chances increase to 25-45% Saturday night into Sunday. A 20-30% chance of mainly showers continues into Monday. Forecasted temperatures behind the front on Sunday will be a few degrees below normal with highs in the 70s area-wide with similar highs Monday. Lows generally in the upper 50s to mid 60s are expected. Confidence is increasing as the NBM has been consistent with the weekend cold front and associated convection. In addition, the deterministic models are in good agreement with this scenario. The forecast will continue to be fine tuned as the weekend approaches. So, stayed tuned! There is a Moderate Rip Current Risk today through Wednesday due to swell periods 6-8 seconds, and southeast winds 10-15 knots. This may continue through the work week as onshore winds increase over the gulf waters through Friday. Minor coastal flooding is not expected but could be close tonight through mid week. Will continue to monitor for potential Coastal Flood Advisory. The PETSS indicates increasing tide levels the latter part of the week, which is more likely for water to reach the dunes at high tide and warranting a Coastal Flood Advisory. The best chance of coastal flooding is expected behind the weekend cold front. This is due to forecasted winds out of the northeast at 20-25 knots along with an increasing swell period. The swells may also lead to an increasing rip current risk but will be offset by the "along-shore" winds. These conditions are dependent on frontal passage timing and strength. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 214 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions with CIGs above 3500kft will continue through the afternoon. A mix of VFR and MVFR CIGs are expected between 02-04Z for ALI, CRP and VCT and between 05-08Z for LRD and VCT, becoming more prevalent overnight. VFR CIGs are expected to resume by mid to late Wednesday morning. VSBYs are expected to remain generally at VFR levels but could briefly drop to MVFR Wednesday morning for mainly VCT. S to SE winds gusting to around 25 knots (approaching 30 knots at the CRP TAF site) can be expected through this afternoon, then decreasing this evening. Wind gusts increase again Wednesday beginning by mid to late morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 214 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A Moderate to Fresh (BF 4-5) onshore flow will persist through Thursday. A strong (BF 6)onshore flow is expected to develop across all marine zones on Friday with advisory conditions possible. Winds relax Saturday, then shift to the northeast and become strong late Saturday night into early Sunday in the wake of a cold front. Low rain chances (<~15%) expected through the end of the workweek but increase this weekend as the cold front moves across the region. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 214 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The chance for wetting rains through the work week are very low (<10%) along with continued above normal temperatures. Minimum RH values will remain generally above 30-40% through the period. South to southeast winds are expected to strengthen across South Texas Friday, but based on the forecasted above normal moisture and low ERC values, elevated fire weather is not expected at this time. The chance of thunderstorms with measurable rainfall increases over the weekend as a cold front moves across South Texas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 71 84 72 85 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 68 85 69 87 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 73 91 72 95 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 70 87 70 90 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 73 83 73 83 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 71 89 70 94 / 10 10 10 0 Kingsville 70 86 70 88 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 73 80 73 80 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TE/81 AVIATION...TE/81  337 FXUS65 KPIH 141917 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 117 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Winter Weather Advisories start late tonight in the central Idaho mountains, Wednesday afternoon in the eastern and southeastern highlands. - Wind Advisories in the Arco Desert-Mud Lake region and Beaverhead-Lemhi highlands. - Snow Wednesday night and Thursday morning down to Snake River plain elevations. - Well below freezing temperatures Thursday and Friday nights. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1250 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Tonight through Fri will be payback for the mild winter eastern Idaho had experienced for the most part. Incoming low with a vigorous cold front will bring moderate to heavy snow in the high elevations, and lighter snow below about 6500ft elevation. Based on current temperature expectations, the snow above 7000ft elevation in the central Idaho mountains will be moderate to heavy up to 8500ft elevation. Lighter snow below that. Most affected zones are in the southern end, where the southwest flow has its best precipitation production. Elsewhere, moderate to heavy accumulations above 6500ft elevation should occur in the Island Park region in the northeast corner, and in the Bear River Range down at the Utah border. Elsewhere, expect light to moderate snowfall. Wed night and Thu morning will also bring some light snow to the Snake River plain/eastern Magic Valley, but it should stay below 2 inches and melt at least partially on Thu afternoon and completely by Fri afternoon. Temperatures will remain mild with the increase in cloud cover tonight and the southerly air flow, but a strong cool down is expected in highs and lows, with winter like overnight lows in the single digits and teens, and lower to middle 20s in the Snake River plain/eastern Magic Valley for Thu night. Finally, this storm and its surface cold front will bring strong wind that will produce windy to very windy conditions Wed afternoon and evening in the Arco Desert and Mud Lake region. It will extend northward into the Lemhi highlands for a portion of that time as well. On Thu, the high wind will shift southward as the wind shifts to northwesterly and so there will be better alignment in the eastern Magic Valley and lower Snake River plain. At least windy conditions (20 to 30 mph with gusts staying below 45 mph) should redevelop on Fri afternoon in these lower elevations. Fri night through next Tue afternoon...A transient upper level ridge moves in at the beginning of this period, allowing strong warming on Sat and Sun. There is a 60-40 split on if this ridge will break down on Sun night, with 60 percent of the clusters saying no. But by Mon afternoon the trough should pass through, bringing more rain and overnight high elevation snow that lasts to the end of the forecast week. Overnight lows appear to say 5 to 10 deg F below normal for the time of year through Sun night, so it will be no time to plant your garden. The shift to southwest flow and the return of cloud cover warms up overnight lows on Mon night. And despite the cloud cover, temperatures in the southerly air flow continue to warm for Mon and Tue. Afternoon wind continues breezy to windy during the afternoons, with Sat being the lightest. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1136 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Widespread lower clouds continue to decrease, although we are pockets of low and mid clouds moving through central and eastern Idaho. We may be in and out of MVFR/IFR conditions for the lower clouds for a little while this afternoon. We will see low clouds returning early to mid morning Wednesday, as the next storm arrives. We should stay VFR or flirt with high end MVFR at PIH, IDA, and BYI as any precipitation and lower FR weather arriving in the afternoon. At DIJ, we are expecting VCSH with the same ceiling issues during that period. We do expect a mix of rain and snow to impact SUN not too long after sunrise and continue through the rest of the day, with a likely full switchover during the afternoon. We are expecting MVFR to IFR conditions impacting the airport once the precipitation arrives. The other concern will be increasing wind with gusts of 15-30kts tomorrow, strongest at PIH and especially IDA. This will be outside of any showers, storms, or bands of precipitation that form. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for IDZ052-067. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Wednesday to 6 AM MDT Friday for IDZ060-066. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon MDT Thursday for IDZ071>074. && $$ DISCUSSION...Messick AVIATION...Keyes  491 FXUS63 KOAX 141918 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 218 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this week, particularly tonight and Friday. - Thursday will be a drying day as a ridge moves in between systems. - Possible temperature impacts are expected for those with agricultural interests heading into the weekend. Expected lows Saturday and Sunday morning will be in the 20s and 30s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 215 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Today and Tonight... A warm front bisected the region today, from Friend, NE, to Lincoln, Omaha, and over into Harlan, IA. North of the front, a pesky cloud deck of low clouds developed, helping maintain temperatures in the low to mid 70s. South of the front, gusty southwest winds brought warmer temperatures into the low to mid 80s. The winds also brought plenty of dry air, with minimum relative humidities falling to 20-30 percent across far southeast Nebraska. The combination of warm temps, dry air, and gusty winds led to Very High to Extreme fire danger across parts of southeast Nebraska. A Red Flag Warning, will remain in effect for Jefferson and Saline counties, where conditions are worst, until 9 PM tonight. The good news is, moisture is expected to surge back north into the forecast area tonight. The bad news is, this could increase our risk for a few strong to severe storms developing across far southeast Nebraska. However, the other good news is latest CAM runs have pushed the best chance for storm development just southeast of the forecast area, into northern parts of Kansas and Missouri. If storms do manage to develop over southeast Nebraska tonight, they will have a lot of dry air to contend with throughout the column, which could hinder their growth. If storms do manage to win out against the entrainment of dry air, steep lapse rates, and strong unidirectional shear could allow storms to become severe. Large hail and damaging wind gusts appear to be the main concerns with any storms that are able to develop. The severe potential may linger into the early morning hours. Wednesday and Thursday... The low associated with the previously mentioned warm front will move northeast into north-central Kansas/southeast Nebraska Wednesday morning, brining additional chances for showers and storms through the region. The low is expected to lift slightly to the north on Wednesday, bringing some wrap around moisture to northern Nebraska. PoPs will decrease southwest to northeast heading into the evening hours as the low exits. A few isolated strong to severe storms may develop as the low moves out late Wednesday afternoon/evening. Thursday is still expected to remain dry as a ridge moves across the region. After the brief cool down (highs in the 70s) on Wednesday, warm air advects into the region. Expect widespread 80s for highs Thursday afternoon. Friday and Beyond... Friday will be a day to watch as we get closer to the end of the week. Low pressure develops on the lee side of the Rockies with an attendant cold front moving into the region. An upper level trough over the Four Corners region will lift to the northeast into the area by Friday night. The cold front will be ushering in much cooler air with WAA and moisture advection ahead of it. There is still uncertainty in where the cold front reaches and the timing of everything. Strong to severe storms with this set up are expected, with all hazards possible. There is still considerable uncertainty in some of the forecast details for this period, so continue to monitor the forecast for potential changes. Cooler air will push in behind the front for the upcoming weekend. Saturday morning lows will be in the upper 20s and low 30s over north of a line from Columbus, NE to Onawa, IA. Lows will fall to the mid and upper 30s across the rest of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. Those with agricultural interests will want to keep an eye on temperatures. Highs will struggle into the 50s for much of the area. A few locations will not make it into the 50s. Saturday night/Sunday morning will be cold once again with lows ranging from the mid-20s to the mid-30s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1227 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A warm front draped across the region will make for a tricky wind forecast this afternoon. KOMA and KLNK currently reside right along the front, with light and variable winds. Expect the front to push farther north this afternoon, bringing southwesterly winds with occasional gusts up to 20 kts. Scattered showers and storms will be possible this evening and overnight. While the best chance for strong to severe storms will likely remain south and east of the TAF sites, a few weaker storms could develop farther north. The best chance for thunder at KOMA, KLNK, and KOFK will likely be after 06Z tonight and into Wednesday morning, however confidence in storm location is too low to include a mention at this time. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ078-088. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KG AVIATION...KG  810 FXUS64 KHGX 141920 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 220 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and humid conditions continue through the end of the week. Heat index values in the 90s at the end of the work week. - Rain chances increase over the weekend as a cold front moves into the region. - Seasonal conditions expected in the wake of the front going into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 220 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A southwesterly flow pattern aloft remains prevalent across the region between an upper level ridge over the Gulf and an upper level trough lifting across the vicinity of the Four Corners. A persistent southerly to southeasterly surface flow also continues between ridging over the southeastern U.S. and adjacent Gulf and a trough of low pressure over the Plains. A resultant warm and muggy pattern continues with partly to mostly cloudy skies and temperatures mostly in the lower to mid 80s this afternoon. Very weak lift associated with the persistent southerly to southeasterly flow could result in a few sprinkles or a light rain shower this afternoon into early this evening, but the overall chance of measurable rainfall remains less than 10% through tonight. The upper level trough will move across the central Plains on Wednesday. The bulk of moisture and lift within the southwesterly flow aloft ahead of this system will remain to our northwest and north over central and northern portions of the state of Texas, where better chances of showers and thunderstorms will be favored Wednesday afternoon into early Wednesday evening. An isolated shower or thunderstorm may develop as far south as the Brazos Valley or Piney Woods Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening, but coverage looks to remain less than 20%. The warm and humid weather pattern will continue through the middle to latter part of the week underneath the persistent southwesterly flow aloft, along with continued southeasterly to southerly surface flow. The probability for measurable rainfall remains around 10% or less through Friday. The next large scale trough is still forecast to translate over the central and northern CONUS on Saturday. A potent shortwave rounding the base of this feature will quickly clip across the central Plains into the Upper Midwest Friday through Saturday afternoon. An associated cold front is forecast to push through Southeast Texas Saturday afternoon and evening, bringing a wind shift to the north. Increased ascent with shortwave impulses embedded with west- southwest flow aloft and also along the cold front will bring an increasing chance (up to 40-60%) of showers and thunderstorms to our forecast area Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Rain chances currently look to diminish going into Sunday morning, though a few showers could persist along our southern and southwestern zones. Temperatures will trend cooler behind the front with lows on Saturday night forecast to range in the 50s over our central and northern counties and in the lower 60s along the coast. Highs on Sunday look to range in the lower to mid 70s. Another shortwave impulse embedded within zonal flow aloft may bring another low (20- 30%) chance of showers and thunderstorms to portions of our area on Monday. The relatively cooler temperatures otherwise look to continue Sunday night into Monday with overnight lows in the 50s inland to 60s along the coast, with highs on Monday afternoon forecast to range from around 70 degrees to the mid 70s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 612 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 MVFR and few pockets of IFR CIGs should scatter & lift later this morning/early in the afternoon. Gusty south to southeast winds are expected throughout the day, diminishing once again this evening. Expect another round of MVFR CIGs overnight with pockets of IFR CIGs possible early Wednesday morning. 03 && .MARINE... Issued at 220 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A moderate onshore flow will generally continue through the week and small craft operators will need to exercise caution at times. The persistent onshore flow will keep water levels elevated through the week with values up to 2.5-3.0 ft above MLLW around times of high tide. The onshore flow and increased water levels may result in wave run-up along Gulf facing beaches as well as an increased risk of rip currents. A cold front with an associated chance of showers and thunderstorms will push offshore late Saturday into early Sunday. Strong offshore winds and increased seas will likely prompt the issuance of Small Craft Advisories by late this weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 68 84 69 88 / 0 10 10 0 Houston (IAH) 70 84 70 88 / 0 10 0 10 Galveston (GLS) 73 79 72 80 / 0 10 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Wednesday morning for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375. && $$ DISCUSSION...Lindsey AVIATION...03 MARINE...Lindsey  265 FXUS66 KSGX 141921 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 1221 PM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Today and Wednesday will be dry with weakening winds with Wednesday high temperatures warming to around average. Stronger onshore flow will spreading cooling inland on Thursday with southwest to west winds for the mountains and deserts gusting to 35 to 45 mph. The flow will turn offshore on Friday with warming for the coast and valleys and continued cooling for the mountains and deserts. Northeast winds along and below the coastal slopes of the mountains will gust to 35 to 45 mph. Warmer inland with weaker winds for next weekend with high temperatures warming to around 5 to 10 degrees above average on Sunday. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... Drier and cooler air is in place after the passage of Monday's low pressure system, which now is spinning over the Four Corners region. The last of the moisture remains over the coastal basin in the form of cumulus clouds from earlier this morning, which will mostly clear throughout the afternoon. Slightly warmer weather will be seen on Wednesday as the system departs into the Great Plains and an area of low pressure stays far to the north along the West Coast and U.S. - Canada border. High temperatures will be close to normal for this time of year by Wednesday afternoon with highs in the 70s for much of the coastal basin and high desert with 50s and 60s across the mountain areas. The area of low pressure over the Pacific Northwest will descend into the Great Basin on Thursday, generating an increase in onshore flow across the region. Gusty west winds will occur in the mountains and deserts, with the exact speeds given by the location of the low and how tight the pressure gradient becomes. There is about a 10-15 MPH spread in wind gusts values from the NBM's 25th to 75th percentiles, indicating some uncertainty. A combination of high resolution models and NBM guidance in yields gusts 30-45 MPH across the deserts with local gusts over 50 MPH in the mountain passes. As the base of the trough passes closer to SoCal and over the Desert Southwest, winds will transition to a Santa Ana wind pattern by Friday. This will bring north and east gusty winds to coastal slope and western valley locations. Again, the exact track of the low will determine how windy it becomes, but wind speeds do look similar to that of Thursday in these regions, probably closer to 20-35 MPH across valleys of Orange County and the Inland Empire. The Santa Ana wind regime will bring a slight warm up to the coastal basin with slightly cooler weather across the deserts. A transient ridge enters the picture by this coming weekend, bringing less wind and warmer weather across the board. This will bring highs near to slightly above average with 70s and 80s west of the mountains and reaching into the 90s across the lower deserts. Another large area of low pressure system will move closer to the West Coast by early next week. Model guidance continues to show differences in timing, strength, and placement of this system. This will bring cooler and windier weather with the increased chance of precipitation. How much precip and what time (if any) occurs, is still...up in the air. Confidence continues to increase that this weekend will be dry, but we will continue to watch a change in the forecast pattern slated for early next week. && .AVIATION... 141745Z...Coasts/Valleys...SCT clouds above 3000 ft MSL through the afternoon. Patchy low clouds to gradually form and increase after 10Z Wed. Any cigs that form would be around 1500 feet MSL. Low clouds will scatter out 16-18Z Wed. Mountains/Deserts...Mostly clear with VFR conditions will prevail into Wed. && .MARINE... Wind gusts could briefly reach 20 kt Thursday afternoon and evening. Otherwise, no hazardous marine conditions are expected through Sunday. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...APR AVIATION/MARINE...CO  027 FXUS65 KVEF 141925 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 1225 PM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Clear skies and warming temperatures expected through tomorrow before gusty winds and cool temperatures return late-week. && .DISCUSSION...Through Monday. Temperatures will increase a few more degrees today and tomorrow as heights aloft increase. Tomorrow's highs will be within a few degrees of normal for mid-April, which for Las Vegas means highs in the low 80s. A change in the weather pattern arrives on Thursday as an area of closed low pressure, currently located off the coast of British Columbia, dives southeast into the Great Basin. The primary concern with this system is wind. Southwesterly prefrontal winds ramp up in the Mojave Desert while northwesterly postfrontal winds start to increase in the southern Great Basin on Thursday morning. These winds include gusts between 35 and 45 mph, the strongest of which should occur over high terrain. Winds remain elevated and gradually shift north on Thursday night as the front moves south. The strongest winds with this system are expected to occur on Friday in the Colorado River Valley as a favorable north to south pressure gradient develops. There is a greater than 80 percent probability of wind gusts reaching 40 mph in that area and a 40 to 50 percent probability of gusts reaching 58 mph in a localized area near Bullhead City. Will continue to monitor model trends and assess the need and timing of wind-related headlines. Besides wind, cold air and lowering heights aloft bring a 10 to 15 degree temperature decrease between Wednesday and Friday. Most moisture associated with this system remains the north of the forecast area, but there is a 20 to 40 percent probability of light precipitation in Lincoln County on Thursday and early Friday. Snow levels fall to between 2000 and 3000 feet on Thursday night as cold air moves in, meaning a dusting of snow cannot be ruled out. Temperatures will rebound and dry conditions return as ridging builds again this weekend, but breezy southerly winds may continue for some of the area. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Through Wednesday morning, winds will generally follow typical daily directional patterns with speeds remaining under 8KT. Late morning, winds are expected to settle out of the south around 8-10KT, before veering to the southwest and becoming elevated and at least intermittently gusty toward the end of the forecast period. VFR conditions prevail, though FEW-SCT clouds around 8-10kft are expected this afternoon, clearing out tonight, with increasing mid-level and high clouds expected across the area Wednesday afternoon. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...The next 24 hours, winds across the region will generally follow typical daily directional patterns with speeds around 5-10KT. The main exception will be across the western Mojave Desert, including KDAG, where westerly winds will hover between 10-15KT through early Wednesday morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail with FEW-SCT clouds around 8-12kft this afternoon expected to gradually lift and clear out overnight. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Meltzer AVIATION...Phillipson For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter  011 FXUS63 KIWX 141925 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 325 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - While confidence is high for multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms into Wednesday, it remains lower regarding timing, placement and impacts in any given area. All modes of severe weather are possible, with heightened concerns either side of the MI/IN state line. - Additional chances for showers and storms exist Wednesday night into Saturday, but each days risk will key in on the previous days outcomes. - Increasing concerns for at least some hydro issues with swaths of locally heavy rain expected on already saturated grounds and high river and lake levels. A Flood Watch has been issued for portions of the area where the greatest confidence exists at this time. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 324 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A very challenging forecast is in store over the next couple of days as the active pattern continues. The focus for this package will reside on the next 24 to 36 hours with minimal changes or discussion on later periods.While CAMs vary considerably on evolution of convection through tonight there is 2 general areas to keep an eye on for both a severe threat and possibly a heavy rain threat. Skies have generally cleared out behind the morning area of showers and storms, allowing for destabilization across the area (SPC Meso indicating SBCAPE of 1500-2500 j/kg with higher levels to the west). 18Z soundings from KILX and KDVN show a powder keg waiting with a strong cap/EML to be overcome. Our first area of concern will be storms that fire most likely in central IL, but could also start along/south of US-24 along a remnant outflow from this mornings convection. Plenty of shear and steep lapse rates will result in rapid intensification of the storms which then move generally east with time. Large hail would be the main threat, but strong winds and possibly some tornado concerns are in play as well. The window for this looks to be from 20Z to maybe 2Z. SWOMCD #422 goes into greater detail on concerns. Have went with chc pops for now in the south until we see how the convection sets up. Heavy rain would also be a concern with plenty of moisture in place. Focus then shifts to expected rapid storm development somewhere in the NE IA/NW IL area in the near future. Specifics can be found in SWOMCD #419 highlighting an eventual Tornado watch as far east as the Chicago area. It is this activity that will become our concern late this evening into the overnight hours with CAMs all over the place on the handling of it. Sufficient signals do exist for the northern third to half of the area most likely in the crosshairs of 1 or 2 batches of storms and an increased threat for severe weather and heavy rainfall. SPC upgraded locations N of US-6 earlier today to Enhanced with all modes possible (trending towards damaging winds with time). The copious amount of rainfall expected could cause a greater overall flood concern than the south given a longer potential duration. A Flood Watch was issued earlier for the northern half of the area where confidence in cover and intensity is greater. That does NOT mean southern areas are not at risk for flooding concerns. WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook placed the entire area in a Slight risk to highlight the concerns. Limited changes have been made into Wednesday and Wednesday night as final evolution and impacts of overnight convection may dictate later chances. SPC has the area in a Marginal Risk for severe storms, with the focus likely being the afternoon or evening hours. Hydro concerns could also be there (hence the watch in effect through 8 pm Wed. A trough moves through with renewed chances for showers and thunderstorms. The severe threat doesn't appear to be as high at this point (Marginal risk for the time being), but something to watch. The trough will quickly exit with an increasing SW flow behind it again as a much deeper trough moved across the Plains are into the area this weekend. Additional severe storms appear possible Saturday with DY6 outlook placing a 15% prob for severe over the area. Behind the front, a shot of colder air and gusty winds arrives for Sunday and Monday as highs drop into the 50s (some 40s?) before moderation starts. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1243 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 An outflow boundary, depicted on satellite as the interface of mid- level cirrus and sprouting fair-weather cumulus, will be the focus for isolated severe thunderstorms this afternoon. These storms may drift into KFWA near 00z. Not enough confidence in this scenario to move beyond PROB30. Additional TSRA, likely in a weakening state, is anticipated later in the period as a line storms drops southeast from MI. MVFR ceilings may linger beyond daybreak Wednesday. At KSBN, greater confidence in the timing of TSRA there which does pose a gusty wind threat. This will need to be monitored. Additional showers and perhaps a thunderstorm are possible near daybreak Wednesday as activity departs Illinois. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening through Wednesday evening for INZ005>009-012-014-103-104-116-203- 204-216. OH...Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through Wednesday evening for OHZ001-002-004-005. MI...Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through Wednesday evening for MIZ078>081-177-277. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Fisher AVIATION...Brown  766 FXUS61 KAKQ 141926 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 326 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Added additional daily records for 4/17 (Fri), 4/18 (Sat) to the Climate Section. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Record to near-record high temperatures prevail through Thursday. 2) Continued dry with fire weather concerns expected for much of the week. 3) Well above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather continue through Saturday. A stronger cold front brings a chance for showers on Sunday, but it does not look at all like a widespread soaking rain. Many areas likely see less than 0.10". && .DISCUSSION... As of 315 PM EDT Tuesday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Record to near-record high temperatures prevail through Thursday. Surface high pressure has settled well offshore of the Carolina coast, with strong upper ridging situated from the Gulf coast to Southeast CONUS. High pressure will build into the western Atlantic during the next day or so. The resulting persistent return flow will lock in a very warm, dry SSW flow regime through Thursday. This Bermuda High setup, more typical of early to mid summer, will allow for record to near record high temperatures through Thursday. The primary difference from summer will be MUCH lower dew pts which will keep apparent temperatures at or below actual air temperatures, which is far more comfortable than typical summertime conditions. As of mid aftn, temperatures are primarily ranging through the mid to upper 80s with dew pts in the 50s and corresponding apparent T values in the 80s. Some places will likely reach ~90F for highs which would challenge daily records. Lows tonight will be in the low-mid 60s for most, with highs Wed-Thu a few degrees above today's values (into the low-mid 90s) given increasing 925-850 mb temperatures and continued deep mixing. Highs will be a few degrees cooler on the eastern shore. The current records at our long- term climate sites noted in the climate section below. KEY MESSAGE 2...Continued dry with fire weather concerns expected for much of the week. With high pressure dominating our weather pattern, and no appreciable precipitation expected through the end of the week, fire weather concerns will remain an issue to monitor for much of the rest of the week. After collaboration with VA State Forestry, have issued an Increased Fire Danger Statement for portions of VA where aftn gusts to around 20 mph are co-located with min RH values at or below 30%, along with highs around 90F. This generally includes all of central and east central. Similar conditions are likely Wed-Thu with minimum RH values averaging 25-30% inland and 30-35% closer to the coast through Thursday, keeping fire wx conditions around critical fire wx thresholds through much of the week. KEY MESSAGE 3...Well above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather continue through Saturday. A stronger cold front brings a chance for showers on Sunday, but it does not look at all like a widespread soaking rain. Many areas likely see less than 0.10". Slightly cooler mid 80s to around 90F on Friday as a weak shortwave brings more cloud cover to the area. Moisture return ahead of this feature will be meager, so only isolated showers are possible on Friday with that shortwave (mainly confined to the far N). Rain amounts will likely be a few hundredths of an inch at best, and most areas will stay dry (latest 12Z models are drier than last night's 00Z runs as well). Very warm/hot and dry (lower 90s inland) for Saturday as upper heights build again. The global models and ensembles show continuity and high confidence that a stronger front crosses the area on Sunday as low pressure tracks into Ontario/Quebec. While moisture return ahead of this front will be better than what is expected on Friday, it does not look promising for a widespread soaking rain. Isolated to perhaps scattered showers are possible during the day, with a low chc of a tstm. Ensemble probs of 0.10"+ of rain are 40-60% across the NE 1/2 of the area, and even lower for interior NE NC and south central VA. Cooler wx returns behind the front early next week, with highs mainly in the 60s to near 70F and lows down into the upper 30s to mid 40s for Mon night/Tue AM. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 200 PM EDT Tuesday... High pressure offshore of the region will favor VFR conditions through the TAF period and beyond. Skies will be mostly clear outside of high clouds through the period. Aftn winds will be SW at 10-12 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, then 5-10 kt overnight. Outlook: VFR and dry conditions are expected to prevail through Saturday. Mainly S-SW winds also prevail throughout the forecast period, as high pressure settles over the western Atlantic. && .MARINE... As of 245 PM EDT Tuesday... -Generally sub-SCA through the end of the week with a brief surge in winds Thurs night -Stronger, more prolonged SCA conditions possible late in the weekend into early next week. High pressure anchored offshore and ridging in over the east coast will remain more or less in place for the next few days. Benign marine conditions prevail today and through the rest of the mid week period. SW-S winds will stay at 10-15kt through at least Thurs evening. Daytime heating and mixing will lead to winds becoming gustier over land, so nearshore waters will also be gusty during the day with gusts up to 20kt. Seas will stay around 3ft during this time period with waves in the bay/rivers at 1-2ft. A weak cold front moves in over the waters Thurs night into Friday. Pressure gradient tightens slightly ahead of it, resulting in a brief bump up in the winds overnight. Expecting winds to pick up to 15-20kt with highest winds over the open ocean. Seas will build to 4ft and perhaps 5ft out near 20nm. Cannot rule out a brief SCA Thurs night, but confidence is low given the unimpressive front and marginal conditions that are forecast. And on that note, not expecting a post-frontal surge either. Looking ahead to the weekend, forecasting benign conditions Friday and Saturday. A stronger front is expected Sunday that may bring strong SCA conditions. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temps for 4/14 - 4/18 Record Record Record RecordRecord High/Yr High/Yr High/Yr High/Yr High/Yr Location 4/14 4/15 4/16 4/174/18 -------- ---- ----- ------ ------ ------ Richmond 90 (1977) 92 (1941) 93 (1976) 96 (1976) 95 (1976) Norfolk 90 (1941) 90 (2024) 91 (1976) 93 (2002) 95 (1896) Salisbury 87 (1941) 87 (1941) 89 (1976) 92 (2002) 90 (1976) Eliz. City 90 (1941) 91 (1941) 90 (1941) 92 (1976) 91 (1941) Record High Min Temps for 4/14 - 4/18 Record Record Record Record Record High High High High High Min T/Yr Min T/Yr Min T/Yr Min T/Yr Min T/Yr Location 4/14 4/15 4/16 -------- ---- ----- ------ Richmond 65 (1899) 64 (2018) 64 (1912) 65 (1912) 64 (2002) Norfolk 68 (2019) 68 (1941) 66 (2017) 68 (2002) 68 (2002) Salisbury 65 (1945) 64 (2002) 63 (2017) 64 (2002) 65 (1918) Eliz. City 68 (2019) 68 (1974) 68 (1994) 68 (1945) 65 (2002) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER until 7 PM EDT this evening for VAZ048- 060>062-064>069-075>085-087>090-509>522. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ERI/LKB AVIATION...ERI/LKB MARINE...AC/HET CLIMATE...MAM  652 FXUS63 KICT 141929 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 229 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe thunderstorm threat this afternoon-evening, and again Wednesday afternoon-evening. - Additional thunderstorm chances and associated severe weather possible Friday afternoon-evening. - Well above average temperatures through Friday, cool down for the weekend. - Very high to extreme grassland fire danger west of I-135 today, and possibly again Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 220 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 THUNDERSTORMS: THIS AFTERNOON--EVENING...Scattered to at times numerous thunderstorms are possible after about 3-4pm, generally along/east of a line extending from Medicine Lodge to Hutchinson to McPherson, as low-level convergence drastically increases in response to a currently veered out dryline retreating rapidly back to the northwest. Of note...thick mid and upper level clouds are streaming in from the southwest (more widespread than forecast), which may limit peak heating, increase capping, support a later initiation time, and raise questions on how many thunderstorms are able to breach the cap. Nevertheless, a strong combination of buoyancy and deep layer shear will support supercells capable of all severe hazards with any storms that can form. Thinking the tornado threat will be greatest between roughly 5/6pm and 9/10pm with any discrete or semi-discrete supercells, as the low-level jet ramps up increasing low-level shear/SRH. Regarding storm mode/type...while an adequate component of the deep layer shear is oriented perpendicular to the dryline, there is a modest component oriented parallel as well, which should favor a gradual transition to mixed/linear storm mode as the evening progresses and with eastward extent, especially if storm coverage proves fairly numerous/widespread. Overnight, with increasing large scale ascent ahead of an approaching shortwave trough and the potential for decreasing convective inhibition, there could be additional thunderstorm development as far west as central KS in wake of this evening's departing activity. If capping doesn't prove too detrimental, shear/buoyancy combination would favor a continued severe weather threat. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON--EVENING...Despite the potential for numerous thunderstorms overnight, strong southerly flow ahead of the potent shortwave approaching from the west should be enough to adequately recover the pre-dryline airmass for additional thunderstorm chances Wednesday afternoon-evening, mainly east of the Kansas Turnpike. Given the stronger forcing, thinking storm initiation could be as early as 2-3pm. Another strong combination of buoyancy and deep layer shear should favor a severe threat, although we're thinking the strong forcing in concert with the shear vectors oriented mostly parallel to the dryline would likely support a mixed/messy/linear storm mode, which could tend to limit a higher-end severe threat. FRIDAY AFTERNOON--EVENING...Deterministic and ensemble consensus continues to support a reloading warm/moist/unstable sector by late week, as another western CONUS upper trough deepens. A sharpening dryline/cold front combination along with strong instability and strong shear look to be present. This could support another round of strong to severe thunderstorms as we head into late Friday. Still lots of uncertainty this far out regarding timing, placement, and amplitude of synoptic features, stay tuned. TEMPERATURES/WIND: Given rather persistent western CONUS troughing and associated lee troughing over the High Plains, breezy/gusty south winds and above average temperatures will persist through this entire work week. The warmest days look to be today, Thursday, and Friday when low-level thickness supports high temperatures in the 80s for most across the forecast area. As we head into the weekend, model consensus continues to support a cool down in wake of a strong cold front, with potential below average temperatures Saturday and Sunday, and even possible near freezing temperatures early Sunday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1239 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail in central KS through the end of the period, while sites in south central and southeast KS may see MVFR ceilings tonight into Wednesday morning. Gusty south/southwest winds will continue this afternoon into the overnight period before weakening Wednesday morning and turning more to the west, especially at central KS sites. Chances for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon will begin in south central KS with an eastward progression through the evening and overnight. There remains some uncertainty as to how far west storms develop; as such, maintained the PROB30 groups for ICT and CNU with this cycle with slight changes to expected window for impacts. Storms may even develop as far west as HUT, though confidence is too low for a mention there for the 18Z issuance. Finally, low-level moisture flowing into southeast KS through the overnight period is forecast to bring MVFR to near-IFR ceilings to CNU early Wednesday morning. Short-term models give these low chances (20%) for impacting ICT, so stay tuned to upcoming forecast cycles as more information becomes available. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 220 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 TODAY...Low relative humidity and gusty southwest winds just west of a dryline will support VERY HIGH to EXTREME grassland fire danger west of Interstate 135. A red flag warning remains in effect through 8pm this evening west of I-135. FRIDAY...Another round of very high grassland fire danger is possible Friday afternoon generally west of Salina to Hutchinson. Stay tuned as we refine forecast details in the coming days. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033- 047-048-050-067-082-091. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADK AVIATION...JWK FIRE WEATHER...ADK  010 FXUS62 KMLB 141929 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 329 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Remaining mostly dry over the next several days with a warming trend under deep layer high pressure - Near record highs in the lower 90s late this week and into the weekend over the interior. - Next cold front forecast to cross the area Sunday night into early Monday and bring a small chance for showers early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Thru tonight...Scattered marine stratocu has spit out some sprinkles/light showers along portions of the coast today and this should diminish tonight. Noticeably less cirrus today and the diurnal cu field will diminish after sunset esp over the interior with skies becoming mostly clear there. With lighter winds, there is a little better chance for patchy fog across northern sections (Orlando north and west) toward sunrise as indicated by the HRRR on several consecutive runs. Though NBM probs remain low at less than 20%. Wed-Sun...Low level ridge axis remains north of the area through Thursday and then model guidance shows it settling southward across the area late week and south FL by Sunday. Winds will gradually weaken and veer in response to this ridge axis. Meanwhile, ridge axis aloft will remain across the area, resulting in a warming trend through the period and overall dry conditions. Onshore winds and inland moving sea breeze will continue to keep warmest max temperatures across the interior each day. Highs will remain closer to normal in the upper 70s/low 80s at the coast Wednesday and Thursday, and be warmer than normal inland, in the mid to upper 80s. As temperatures continue to climb into late week and into the weekend, max temps will become above normal area-wide, ranging from the low to mid 80s at the coast and climbing into the low 90s across the interior. For inland sites, these highs will be nearing record values. The greatest potential for any tied or broken daily records still looks to be at Leesburg, especially Saturday (see record highs below). Mon-Tue...A weak cold front is forecast to move through the area Sunday night into early Monday. This will finally lead to a cooling trend early next week with slightly below normal max temps on Tue. There will be some increase in rain chances, however moisture looks meager and the 12Z GFS is trending toward the drier ECWMF. So PoPs remain on the low end (around 20-30%), focused on central/southern sections Mon. Both models show a period of breezy to windy northeast to east winds developing behind the front that will continue into Tuesday. && .MARINE... Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Boating conditions will continue to become more favorable the remainder of the week and into the weekend. Ridge axis of high pressure across the Atlantic remains north of the waters through Wed and then settles southward across central Florida late this week, then south of the local waters Sun. This will produce a gradual veering wind flow becoming more SE and S and then finally SW-W on Sunday. Each afternoon though there will be 10-14 knots E/SE sea breeze near the coast. Primary contribution to seas will be an east swell with a bit of wind wave. Combined seas will fall below 5 FT Wed and range 2-3 FT Fri-Sun. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 145 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions through the TAF period. Mostly dry conditions today, but an isolated sprinkle can not be ruled out. However, since confidence is so low (rain chances 10 percent or less), VCSH is not included in the TAF. ESE winds of 8-12 KT with gusts to 20 KT this afternoon will decrease to 5-10 KT after 00/01Z before becoming light later in the overnight hours. ESE winds will increase to 8-12 KT once again by mid morning Wednesday with occasional gusts to 20 KT in the afternoon, mainly along the coast from VRB southward, as winds become enhanced behind the east coast sea breeze. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Prevailing onshore winds will continue through Thursday as ridge axis of high pressure across the Atlantic remains just north of the area. Easterly winds will increase 10 to 15 mph each afternoon behind the sea breeze. Gusts up to 20 mph will be possible along the coast. Dry conditions are forecast to prevail through late week, with a gradual warming trend. Onshore flow will keep Min RH values above critical levels in the mid 40s to mid 50s at the coast. However, well inland, roughly Kissimmee northward, min RH values will fall as low as 30-35 percent Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. Wind speeds are forecast to remain below 15 mph across this area where lower RH values occur so Red Flag conditions are not forecast. Dispersion values will be Good to Very Good Wednesday and generally Good Thursday. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Record Highs for Friday-Sunday (17th-19th): April 17th April 18th April 19th Daytona Beach 89 2022 92 1967 92 1968 Leesburg 92 1991 90 1990 92 2020 Sanford 92 1967 94 1967 94 2020 Orlando 95 1922 93 1922 94 1922 Melbourne 90 2006 91 2015 93 2015 Vero Beach 91 2021 92 2015 93 1969 Fort Pierce 93 1919 94 2015 92 1988 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 60 80 59 82 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 61 84 61 86 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 65 79 65 80 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 63 79 63 80 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 60 86 60 88 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 60 84 59 86 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 62 84 62 87 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 62 79 62 81 / 0 0 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kelly AVIATION...Watson  011 FXUS61 KALY 141930 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 330 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has maintained the Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe weather across eastern New York and western New England for this afternoon into this evening. But what was originally issued primarily for a damaging wind threat, now includes low probabilities of large hail (at least 1" in diameter) and an isolated tornado, mainly for areas within and north of Albany. Now that confidence has increased in the likelihood of scattered severe thunderstorms across the region this afternoon through this evening, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been collaborated and issued for all of eastern New York and western New England. The primary threats will be damaging wind gusts and large hail, but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out particularly north of Albany. We have added the mention of severe thunderstorms and the primary threats of damaging wind gusts and large hail to the forecast for this afternoon and this evening across the region. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms this afternoon into this evening threaten to bring locally damaging wind gusts and large hail that could cause property damage and possible power outages. 2. Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday south of the Capital Region. 3. The threat for widespread impactful weather is low from Thursday through the end of the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... The latest SPC hourly mesoscale analysis page shows a mid-level, relatively compact shortwave trough just north of the eastern Great Lakes, embedded within quasi-zonal flow. At the surface, a weak wave/low rests along a quasi-stationary boundary oriented horizontally across northern New York, just outside our northern CWA boundary. The core of the surface wave/low currently resides just on the opposite side of the international border in deep, southeast Ontario with an anticipated eastward trajectory along the boundary through this evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have already entered and swiftly departed the Southern Adirondacks late this morning into early this afternoon as a result of an initial surface wave/lake-shore boundary off Lake Ontario, though an overall lack of instability and forcing led quickly to their demise before vertical growth was sufficient enough to allow them to pose any concern. Quite frankly, that is our primary concern with the overall severe threat across the region this afternoon into this evening: lack of forcing. While areas south of the Southern Adirondacks have, with moisture advection and breaks of sun amid an already anomalously warm airmass, attained SBCAPE values on the order of 500 to 1000 J/kg, the lack of strong forcing may ultimately win out over sufficient destabilization for widespread non-severe and severe convection. Amid extensive data interpretation, including that of latest radar trends, the conclusion has been drawn that the best opportunity, or threat, for severe-level convection comes mid this afternoon into this evening when the eastward track of the aforementioned shortwave will intersect that of the surface wave along the northern boundary. As these two features further approach our region, some of the HiRes guidance has indicated that a local vorticity maximum, though a weakening one at that, will also slide eastward, increasing the vertical stretching and subsequently the upward lift along and just south of the boundary. Increased surface convergence from both the boundary and the eastward-propogating surface wave should align well with this vort max to provide sufficient forcing for ascent for areas along and just south of the boundary. However, with the surface wave extending well off the boundary and the upper shortwave sinking slightly farther south along its eastward progression, forcing for ascent across the unstable environment will subsequently increase, aiding in maintaining any developing convection much farther south. Should the surface wave extend farther, hence expanding the risk for developing and sustaining convection, SBCAPE values rising widely to 1000 J/kg, if not pockets of values in excess of that, 0-6km bulk shear on the order of 40-50 kt, and steep mid-level lapse rates of about 6-7 C/km will be supportive of severe thunderstorm development. In fact, an isolated supercell thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out particularly within and north of the Capital District. 1 and 6 km shear vectors oriented nearly 45 degrees and parallel to environmental hodographs respectively indicate that storm mode should initially begin cellular before potentially congealing further downstream into clusters, if not line segments. The latest scans of the KENX radar support this thought, as cellular structures can be seen pulsing through the Southern Adirondacks. Certainly, should any strong cells or supercells form, cool outflow could enhance cold pools and help create some nearby bowing of clusters or linear segments should they be adjacent enough to tap into those environments. Additionally, any developing outflow boundaries could also be a focus for additional convection further downstream. Within supercellular convection, large hail and damaging winds are going to be the primary threats. Should an updraft be sufficient enough (strong enough) to loft hailstones for prolonged periods of time, there could certainly be come 1" hailstones in some areas. The limiting factor here is shorter upper-level segments of the environment hodographs which indicate there may be a short shelf life of stones within the updraft. Inverted-V soundings from well-mixed environments as well as high DCAPE (~300-800 J/kg) and aforementioned steep mid-level lapse rates also indicate the potential for damaging wind gusts. An isolated tornado closer to the boundary, or within the Southern Adirondacks, also cannot be ruled out as storm relative helicity is on the moderate side and convergent, low-level winds could drive some low and mid-level turning. Should supercells develop, mid-level mesocyclones could drop given lower LCLs. But, as previously stated, this is much more of an isolated threat. Now, for those reasons, scattered severe convection is favored across the region this afternoon into this evening. However, the lack of slabular forcing from a true frontal passage and upper- level dynamic forcing in the absence of a large scale or even more potent shortwave trough, should significantly limit the spatial extent or coverage of severe storms during the aforementioned target time. Additionally, there remains uncertainty as to how far south the surface wave will extend. If it is shunted farther north, severe-level convection will be very difficult to attain. Or, rather, will be very difficult to maintain much farther south of the boundary despite the favorable environmental indices. We are monitoring the trends of the situation closely and will ultimately issue any severe thunderstorm warnings as necessary. KEY MESSAGE 2... Another shortwave trough will track through the mean, zonal flow tomorrow, bringing additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms. With today's quasi-stationary boundary still present, just a bit further south, and another surface wave riding along it, there could be some isolated severe thunderstorms, particularly in the Eastern Catskills where a Marginal Risk for severe weather currently exists. The primary threat with these will also be strong to locally damaging wind gusts, but the threat looks much more subdued compared to today. KEY MESSAGE 3... Additional disturbances will force a rinse-and-repeat type pattern through the end of the week with rounds of additional showers and non-severe thunderstorms amid a persistent, warm environment. Temperatures will continue to run above normal until late this weekend into early next week when a fairly potent cold front sweeps through the region and brings us actually to below-normal levels by Monday. That said, the overall probability for impactful weather is low from Thursday through early next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 18z Wednesday...VFR conditions at all terminals as of 1:15 PM EDT should prevail through the next few hours. Then, chances for scattered showers/thunderstorms increase later this afternoon and evening. Confidence remains fairly low on coverage of showers/storms, but we did attempt to narrow down the timing of showers/storms from the previous TAF issuance. Given current observations and trends, GFL still has the best chance to see a shower/storm, but chances for ALB/PSF/POU look slightly lower than when the 12z TAFs were issued, so we have made some adjustments to tempo and prob30 groups to reflect this. Gusty winds and IFR vsbys possible with any showers/storms. Showers/storms come to and end this evening by 00-02z. Then, mainly VFR conditions through the first half of the night with SCT to BKN mid-level clouds. Cigs trend down to MVFR at ALB/GFL/PSF for the second half of the night. If any of these terminals see a shower/storm with appreciable rainfall this evening, then some localized fog/mist and IFR conditions can't be ruled out later tonight. Flying conditions trend back up to VFR for most of tomorrow morning, outside of a batch of showers that could bring some MVFR vsbys/cigs towards the end of the TAF period. Outlook... Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Sunday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures(Year Set): Today April 14: Albany: 89(2023) Glens Falls: 84(2023) Poughkeepsie: 91(2023) Wednesday April 15: Albany: 86(2003) Glens Falls: 84(2003) Poughkeepsie: 84(2003) Thursday April 16: Albany: 91(2012) Glens Falls: 89(2002) Poughkeepsie: 91(2012) && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...12 AVIATION...35 CLIMATE...07  297 FXUS65 KABQ 141931 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 131 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 122 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Hazardous crosswinds will create difficult travel for large and high-profile vehicles this afternoon and again Thursday and Friday mainly across eastern NM. - Critical fire weather conditions will increase the threat for rapid fire spread from any new fires through this evening. These conditions return Thursday across northeast and east central NM, as well as a majority of the state Friday. - A hard freeze is forecast Friday night into Saturday morning across portions of central, western and northern NM. Take precautions to protect early blooming plants. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 122 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Strong southwesterly winds will slowly decrease this evening across northern and central New Mexico. As the parent storm system slides eastward across Colorado through the overnight hours, an associated cold front will bring cooler temperatures to NM. On average, low temperatures will be around 10 degrees cooler than last night. In addition to mountain areas and common colder locations across west central NM, a few other lower elevation areas, including Farmington, the Santa Fe Metro, and Moriarty will see temperatures fall below freezing for an hour or two early Wednesday morning. A trailing trough will continue to cross the state on Wednesday. Though this will pass with little fanfare, breezy westerly winds will return to east central NM with gusts near 25 or 30 mph. High temperatures will be near to just shy of normal. Winds will taper off Wednesday evening. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 122 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Flow will back to the southwest on Thursday in advance of an strong upper level trough diving southward toward UT. H7 flow will increase to between 25 and 30kt by the late afternoon hours and H5 flow will only be marginally stronger. Nonetheless, strong mixing and a deepening lee side trough will allow surface winds to increase areawide with gusts between 25 and 40 mph. High temps will warm 5 to 10 degrees areawide. On Friday, the system will cross the central and northern Rockies with the base of the trough crossing northern NM. The NAM appears to be the outlier showing a slower progression. H7 winds will increase to between 40 and 50kt while a surface low deepens near the CO/OK/NM border. This will bring strong winds to much of the area once again, with the strongest winds across north central and northeast NM. Additionally, a Pacific cold front will race from west to east, and the strongest gusts of the day are most likely to occur with the frontal passage. Temperatures will cool quickly behind the front. Areas across NW NM will be upwards of 20 degrees cooler on Friday than on Thursday. Areas of blowing dust may develop, especially in areas that have received little rainfall as of late. After the winds decrease Friday evening, excellent radiational cooling will allow temperatures to drop like a rock. A hard freeze (<=28 degrees) is on tap for much of northern and western NM, plus areas around Moriarty and Clines Corners. This would be a damaging freeze for any budding or blooming plants. However, even areas across the Albuquerque Metro will see low temperatures fall near or just below the freezing mark. Quieter conditions with weak ridging will be the rule on Saturday. Surface winds will veer around to the southeast and south, slowly drawing up Gulf moisture Saturday night into Sunday. At least for now, nothing more than sprinkles is expected for Sunday. Instead, southerly winds will increase Sunday and breezy to windy conditions are expected across much of eastern NM during the afternoon. Though the upper level pattern is uncertain on Monday, it appears that low level moisture will continue to creep in from the south, though storms still look to be scarce. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1116 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Light showers continue across north central NM late this morning. These showers will continue to gradually diminish in coverage through the afternoon, though mountain obscurations will remain possible. MVFR cigs around KGUP earlier this morning will continue to gradually rise. Strong southwest winds have already developed across the area and will persist through early evening. Gusts between 35 and 45kt will be common along and east of the Central Mountain Chain, while gusts up to 30kt will be common along and west of the Rio Grande Valley. Less wind is on tap for Wednesday, though breezy westerly winds will be favored across east central NM in the afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 122 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Critical fire weather conditions will persist through early evening across eastern NM. Lighter winds are expected on Wednesday, though locally critical conditions remain on tap for the Clines Corners area. Critical fire weather conditions will return for Thursday and Friday. A dry slot will cross the state on Thursday, and strong mixing will bring the drier air as well as stronger winds to the surface. Several hours of single digit RH, generally between 5 and 10 hours, are expected across all but the high terrain. Southwest winds will not be as strong as today, but will be above critical thresholds, especially across eastern NM. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for all of northeast and east central NM for Thursday afternoon and evening. Wind and RH thresholds are also being met near Gallup/western portions of Zone 105, but this area just received wetting rainfall and ERC values are quite marginal, so have held off on a watch. Winds will turn more westerly and northwesterly on Friday and increase as the base of an upper level trough crosses northern NM. An associated cold front will also cross the state, dropping temperatures and inching RH values upward. Critical fire weather conditions will be favored across eastern NM, but a few hours of critical conditions will also impact portions of central and western NM. Quieter conditions on Saturday, but critical conditions look to return to northeast NM on Sunday as strong southerly winds return. Less confidence exists for Monday as moisture will be increasing, but near- critical conditions are not out of the question for northeast NM. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 31 65 33 73 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 23 61 22 67 / 5 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 28 61 31 68 / 5 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 24 64 25 69 / 5 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 28 60 30 66 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 26 65 26 71 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 31 61 30 67 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 36 65 37 71 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 32 61 33 67 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 30 68 28 70 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 34 73 32 76 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 23 53 25 60 / 0 5 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 36 60 40 67 / 0 5 0 0 Pecos........................... 30 61 35 67 / 5 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 28 58 33 63 / 0 10 0 0 Red River....................... 24 48 26 53 / 0 10 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 22 54 21 61 / 0 5 5 0 Taos............................ 25 62 25 68 / 0 5 0 0 Mora............................ 29 61 33 67 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 34 68 33 73 / 0 5 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 34 62 37 68 / 5 5 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 33 66 34 71 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 41 68 43 74 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 42 70 42 76 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 38 72 39 79 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 40 71 40 77 / 5 0 0 0 Belen........................... 37 73 34 79 / 5 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 39 70 40 77 / 5 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 35 73 34 78 / 5 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 40 72 40 78 / 5 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 36 72 36 78 / 5 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 39 66 41 72 / 5 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 41 71 41 76 / 5 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 42 74 40 80 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 37 63 39 68 / 5 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 37 64 39 70 / 5 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 35 65 34 71 / 5 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 29 66 27 73 / 5 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 33 62 35 69 / 5 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 33 65 35 71 / 5 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 35 64 36 71 / 5 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 41 67 41 72 / 5 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 38 61 41 67 / 10 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 29 61 31 69 / 0 5 0 0 Raton........................... 29 67 30 74 / 0 10 0 0 Springer........................ 30 67 29 75 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 31 64 34 70 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 40 68 41 79 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 35 67 36 75 / 0 5 0 0 Conchas......................... 39 76 39 82 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 40 71 39 79 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 42 78 43 85 / 5 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 45 77 44 83 / 10 0 0 0 Portales........................ 45 78 42 83 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 42 76 39 82 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 47 81 43 86 / 5 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 42 73 41 79 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 38 71 37 76 / 5 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ104-123-125- 126. Wind Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ223-226>236-240. Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for NMZ104-123-125-126. && $$ SHORT TERM...34 LONG TERM....34 AVIATION...34  230 FXUS63 KLMK 141934 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 334 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Well-above normal temperatures continue throughout the upcoming week. A few temperature records may be in jeopardy tomorrow. * Mostly dry through Wednesday. The next chance for widespread rainfall is expected Thursday, with some strong storms possible. * A stronger cold front will bring a chance for showers and storms again on Saturday. Another low-end threat for strong storms exists with this system. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 334 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s and lower 80s this afternoon under a mix of sun and clouds. Sfc winds have been gusty today due to steep low level lapse rates, with peak gusts between 20- 30 mph. We remain under the southeastern ridge, which has kept most precip off to our north and west. There are a few cells developing in a WAA zone with deeper moisture convergence and steeper lapse rates across IL, and the latest WoFs paintball runs support isolated to scattered convection across central IL and IN the remaining afternoon, with some potential for a few storms to approach our northernmost corner of the forecast area. According to mesoanalysis, we have destabilized to around 1500 J/kg of SBCAPE across along and north of the Ohio River. With effective bulk shear between 35-40kts, the environment is supportive for thunderstorms, but we lack any trigger to initiate. Will watch for any storms that sneak near the area, and monitor any development along any outflow. SPC has kept the marginal risk clipped in our northern corner, but any severe potential near our area will really be for central IN and OH. Dry weather is expected overnight, with mild temps only getting down into the 60s as we remain in a WAA pattern. Another warm and breezy day tomorrow, with highs in the mid to upper 80s, and gusty southwest winds up to 25 mph or so. The southeastern ridge will remain through tomorrow, keeping the axis of moisture transport and the parade of convection to our north and west as a shortwave pivots across the central US. We remain mostly dry tomorrow, with only an isolated to scattered chance for precip north of the Ohio River through the afternoon. By Wednesday night, that southeastern ridge will begin to erode, which will allow for PoPs to begin to creep eastward through the night. While most will remain dry until Thursday, some precip chances begin to arrive in our west overnight. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 334 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ===== Thursday through Friday ===== The southeastern ridge will break down toward the end of the week, which will open the corridor for higher precip chances in deep southwesterly flow. On Thursday, showers and storms are expected as an upper shortwave pivots across the Ohio Valley. While shower and storms are expected, there remains lower confidence on severe potential. SPC introduced a Marginal Risk, but there remains plenty of uncertainty to limit confidence. Model soundings show rather thick cloud cover and plenty of saturation in the column. Additionally, some model guidance indicates morning shower and storm activity, which could hinder afternoon destabilization for severe potential. However, effective bulk shear near 40kts will support some organization with any redevelopment through the day, so at least some storms will remain possible. Drier conditions are expected for most of Friday as brief upper ridging moves across the lower Ohio Valley. Temperatures are expected to reach the mid to upper 80s. By Friday night, another upper wave will move across the Plains, with a trailing cold front across the central Plains. This will result in a strengthening LLJ and moisture transport axis ahead of the front to support increasing precip chances. Not everyone will see rain Friday night, with the best chances across all of southern IN, but isolated chances along and north of the WK/BG Pkwys. ===== Weekend Outlook ===== The upper trough will likely amplify through the weekend, leading to higher confidence on a cold front to sweep through the forecast area sometime between Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning. WAA ahead of the front, combined with SW gusty gradient sfc winds, will help temps reach the 80s for most again, especially in our east where longer diurnal heating will occur as the front moves in from the west. Our highest chance for showers and storms through the day will arrive along or just ahead of the cold front. While upstream saturation and cloud cover will help limit instability parameters, strong forcing along the eastward-advancing front combined with favorable deep-layer flow will likely lead to a line of convection passing through sometime during the afternoon. The GEFS and GEPS ensembles indicate a 25-35% chance for SBCAPE values to exceed 750 J/kg Saturday afternoon. Additionally, deep layer shear parameters and steep low level lapse also add to the confidence in storm potential on Saturday. With a line of convection expected, mainly looking at a damaging wind threat on Saturday. Behind FROPA, expect tapering precip chances and winds shifting out of the northwest. Cooler post-frontal air will also be filtering in, leading to temps to drop into the 40s by Sunday morning. Precip chances will linger into Sunday morning, but are expected to fully exit the area by the middle of the day. We should also see increasing sunshine throughout the day as the front departs to the east. ===== Early Next Week ===== The upper trough will swing through sometime Sunday night or on Monday, though we will remain in a NW upper flow for the start of next week. Sfc high pressure will build across the area, leading to another dry stretch at least for Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures will be cool during this time, with highs on Monday in the 60s and highs on Tuesday in the low 70s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 118 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR weather is ongoing this afternoon with a mix of diurnal cu and upper level clouds. Winds are gusting up to 25kts, but these are expected to subside by this evening. Otherwise, there remains a low chance for a shower or storm to pass by SDF/LEX this afternoon, but confidence remains too low to include in TAF at this time. Overnight, scattered upper level clouds will continue to stream across the region. A LLJ will be located to our northwest, but could support very brief and marginal LLWS. VFR continues tomorrow. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CJP LONG TERM...CJP AVIATION...CJP  685 FXUS61 KALY 141938 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 338 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has maintained the Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe weather across eastern New York and western New England for this afternoon into this evening. But what was originally issued primarily for a damaging wind threat, now includes low probabilities of large hail (at least 1" in diameter) and an isolated tornado, mainly for areas within and north of Albany. Now that confidence has increased in the likelihood of scattered severe thunderstorms across the region this afternoon through this evening, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been collaborated and issued for all of eastern New York and western New England. The primary threats will be damaging wind gusts and large hail, but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out particularly north of Albany. We have added the mention of severe thunderstorms and the primary threats of damaging wind gusts and large hail to the forecast for this afternoon and this evening across the region. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms this afternoon into this evening threaten to bring locally damaging wind gusts and large hail that could cause property damage and possible power outages. 2. Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday south of the Capital Region. 3. The threat for widespread impactful weather is low from Thursday through the end of the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... The latest SPC hourly mesoscale analysis page shows a mid-level, relatively compact shortwave trough just north of the eastern Great Lakes, embedded within quasi-zonal flow. At the surface, a weak wave/low rests along a quasi-stationary boundary oriented horizontally across northern New York, just outside our northern CWA boundary. The core of the surface wave/low currently resides just on the opposite side of the international border in deep, southeast Ontario with an anticipated eastward trajectory along the boundary through this evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have already entered and swiftly departed the Southern Adirondacks late this morning into early this afternoon as a result of an initial surface wave/lake-shore boundary off Lake Ontario, though an overall lack of instability and forcing led quickly to their demise before vertical growth was sufficient enough to allow them to pose any concern. Quite frankly, that is our primary concern with the overall severe threat across the region this afternoon into this evening: lack of forcing. While areas south of the Southern Adirondacks have, with moisture advection and breaks of sun amid an already anomalously warm airmass, attained SBCAPE values on the order of 500 to 1000 J/kg, the lack of strong forcing may ultimately win out over sufficient destabilization for widespread non-severe and severe convection. Amid extensive data interpretation, including that of latest radar trends, the conclusion has been drawn that the best opportunity, or threat, for severe-level convection comes mid this afternoon into this evening when the eastward track of the aforementioned shortwave will intersect that of the surface wave along the northern boundary. As these two features further approach our region, some of the HiRes guidance has indicated that a local vorticity maximum, though a weakening one at that, will also slide eastward, increasing the vertical stretching and subsequently the upward lift along and just south of the boundary. Increased surface convergence from both the boundary and the eastward-propogating surface wave should align well with this vort max to provide sufficient forcing for ascent for areas along and just south of the boundary. However, with the surface wave extending well off the boundary and the upper shortwave sinking slightly farther south along its eastward progression, forcing for ascent across the unstable environment will subsequently increase, aiding in maintaining any developing convection much farther south. Should the surface wave extend farther, hence expanding the risk for developing and sustaining convection, SBCAPE values rising widely to 1000 J/kg, if not pockets of values in excess of that, 0-6km bulk shear on the order of 40-50 kt, and steep mid-level lapse rates of about 6-7 C/km will be supportive of severe thunderstorm development. In fact, an isolated supercell thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out particularly within and north of the Capital District. 1 and 6 km shear vectors oriented nearly 45 degrees and parallel to environmental hodographs respectively indicate that storm mode should initially begin cellular before potentially congealing further downstream into clusters, if not line segments. The latest scans of the KENX radar support this thought, as cellular structures can be seen pulsing through the Southern Adirondacks. Certainly, should any strong cells or supercells form, cool outflow could enhance cold pools and help create some nearby bowing of clusters or linear segments should they be adjacent enough to tap into those environments. Additionally, any developing outflow boundaries could also be a focus for additional convection further downstream. Within supercellular convection, large hail and damaging winds are going to be the primary threats. Should an updraft be sufficient enough (strong enough) to loft hailstones for prolonged periods of time, there could certainly be come 1" hailstones in some areas. The limiting factor here is shorter upper-level segments of the environment hodographs which indicate there may be a short shelf life of stones within the updraft. Inverted-V soundings from well-mixed environments as well as high DCAPE (~300-800 J/kg) and aforementioned steep mid-level lapse rates also indicate the potential for damaging wind gusts. An isolated tornado closer to the boundary, or within the Southern Adirondacks, also cannot be ruled out as storm relative helicity is on the moderate side and convergent, low-level winds could drive some low and mid-level turning. Should supercells develop, mid-level mesocyclones could drop given lower LCLs. But, as previously stated, this is much more of an isolated threat. Now, for those reasons, scattered severe convection is favored across the region this afternoon into this evening. However, the lack of slabular forcing from a true frontal passage and upper- level dynamic forcing in the absence of a large scale or even more potent shortwave trough, should significantly limit the spatial extent or coverage of severe storms during the aforementioned target time. Additionally, there remains uncertainty as to how far south the surface wave will extend. If it is shunted farther north, severe-level convection will be very difficult to attain. Or, rather, will be very difficult to maintain much farther south of the boundary despite the favorable environmental indices. Finally, as currently seen on the SPC hourly mesoscale analysis page, the rain-cooled air and cool outflow from storms could also stabilize the environment, hindering further development later if we cannot destabilize again in these areas. But, we are monitoring the trends of the situation closely and will ultimately issue any severe thunderstorm warnings as necessary. KEY MESSAGE 2... Another shortwave trough will track through the mean, zonal flow tomorrow, bringing additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms. With today's quasi-stationary boundary still present, just a bit further south, and another surface wave riding along it, there could be some isolated severe thunderstorms, particularly in the Eastern Catskills where a Marginal Risk for severe weather currently exists. The primary threat with these will also be strong to locally damaging wind gusts, but the threat looks much more subdued compared to today. KEY MESSAGE 3... Additional disturbances will force a rinse-and-repeat type pattern through the end of the week with rounds of additional showers and non-severe thunderstorms amid a persistent, warm environment. Temperatures will continue to run above normal until late this weekend into early next week when a fairly potent cold front sweeps through the region and brings us actually to below-normal levels by Monday. That said, the overall probability for impactful weather is low from Thursday through early next week. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 18z Wednesday...VFR conditions at all terminals as of 1:15 PM EDT should prevail through the next few hours. Then, chances for scattered showers/thunderstorms increase later this afternoon and evening. Confidence remains fairly low on coverage of showers/storms, but we did attempt to narrow down the timing of showers/storms from the previous TAF issuance. Given current observations and trends, GFL still has the best chance to see a shower/storm, but chances for ALB/PSF/POU look slightly lower than when the 12z TAFs were issued, so we have made some adjustments to tempo and prob30 groups to reflect this. Gusty winds and IFR vsbys possible with any showers/storms. Showers/storms come to and end this evening by 00-02z. Then, mainly VFR conditions through the first half of the night with SCT to BKN mid-level clouds. Cigs trend down to MVFR at ALB/GFL/PSF for the second half of the night. If any of these terminals see a shower/storm with appreciable rainfall this evening, then some localized fog/mist and IFR conditions can't be ruled out later tonight. Flying conditions trend back up to VFR for most of tomorrow morning, outside of a batch of showers that could bring some MVFR vsbys/cigs towards the end of the TAF period. Outlook... Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Sunday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures(Year Set): Today April 14: Albany: 89(2023) Glens Falls: 84(2023) Poughkeepsie: 91(2023) Wednesday April 15: Albany: 86(2003) Glens Falls: 84(2003) Poughkeepsie: 84(2003) Thursday April 16: Albany: 91(2012) Glens Falls: 89(2002) Poughkeepsie: 91(2012) && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...12 AVIATION...35 CLIMATE...07  057 FXUS63 KLBF 141941 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 241 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Moderate confidence in precipitation potential tonight into Wednesday - Moderate to high confidence in a return to near-critical fire conditions on Thursday as dry, warm, and breezy conditions return. - Moderate confidence in precipitation Friday and Friday night, with a low confidence of some light accumulating snow. - Moderate confidence in a cooler start to the weekend with temperatures returning to well above normal by early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Current radar imagery shows some widely scattered showers already occurring across portions of the Sandhills and into northern Nebraska this afternoon. A better potential for showers and isolated thunderstorms are still expected to develop late this afternoon and into the evening as a developing low pressure system over the Rockies begins to push eastward. At this time, the main low will remain just to the south along the Nebraska/Kansas border. This should keep the majority of the precipitation, not to mention severe potential, to the south and east. Some solutions still show some more organized convection developing across portions of southwest Nebraska by late evening. Current thinking is that these storms are not expected to be severe as the better instability and forcing remains to the southeast, some stronger wind gusts up to 50 mph or small hail cannot be ruled out. Overall, any precipitation we receive tonight and Wednesday morning will have limited QPF amounts... generally be under a quarter inch (0.25 inches), with up to a half inch (0.50 inches) possible in the heavier, more organized storms. The best potential to see any showers/storms will be between this evening, although some light showers may continue through sunrise. Lingering showers and embedded thunderstorms could continue into the early Wednesday morning hours, but overall coverage and intensity should diminish through the Wednesday morning hours and the main axis of precipitation moving off to the east through the afternoon. For temperatures, increasing clouds and precipitation will drop temperatures into the upper 60s to low 70s for Wednesday. Despite these cooler highs, they will still be nearly 10 degrees above normal. Overnight lows will also remain slightly above normal tonight through Wednesday night in the upper 30s to mid 40s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A return to dry conditions arrives on Thursday as weak ridging builds back into the central Plains. Warm air advection with 850 mb temperatures in the 12 to 16 C range will allow for surface highs to easily climb back into the low to mid 80s. These highs will be nearly 20 degrees above normal for this time of the year. Latest probability guidance suggests a maximum temperature over 80 degrees to be near 100 percent for locations generally east of US-83. Increasing the probability to over 85 degrees, much of that same area still has a nearly 70 to 80 percent or higher probability. In addition, looking at the latest EFI/SoT guidance, the EFI remain high (0.7 to 0.8), but SoT is fairly low. Therefore confidence is high that there may be some very warm, unseasonable temperatures, but not necessarily record-breaking high temperatures on Thursday. Would even expect the going forecasted highs to rise another couple degrees over the next few days potentially into the mid to upper 80s for much of the region. The drier conditions will be brief as the next system arrives Thursday night lasting into Saturday. An upper level trough will dig south along the Rockies Thursday night, pushing into the High Plains by Friday and into the central Plains by Saturday. This trough and associated front will bring some precipitation to the region beginning as early as Thursday night across northwest Nebraska and into the Pine Ridge. Precipitation will gradually push south and east during the day Friday. There is still some uncertainty in precip type and where the rain/snow cut off line will be. For the most part, after a brief period of rain Thursday night, will expect mostly all snow across the Pine Ridge as temperatures remain cooler in this region. Still, maximum temperatures are expected to rise into the low 40s by Friday afternoon in the Pine Ridge which may inhibit any snow or at least make accumulations more difficult. Further to the south and east, precipitation will start off as all rain, but as the trough pushes east and colder air behind it filters into the region, a gradual change over to snow is expected. Once the sun sets in the evening and temperatures drop into the low to mid 30s, any lingering precipitation will transition over to snow. How much snow falls will be highly dependent on the precipitation track and if any precipitation will remain over our area by the time temperatures drop enough for snow to accumulate. Looking at the latest probabilities, the highest potential (over 50 percent) to see accumulating snow will be across the Pine Ridge and in areas mainly north and west of a Ogallala to Valentine line which seems to line up well with where the coldest temperatures are expected. Accumulations are still uncertain, but will continue to monitor this over the next few days. Heading into the weekend, upper level ridging builds back across the western US with surface high pressure returning to the central Plains allowing for a dry weekend to prevail. There is some low end chance PoPs of some light lingering snow across portions of the Sandhills and into north central Nebraska on Saturday morning and early afternoon. Confidence is low in any precipitation development at this time and not expecting any significant impacts from snow if it does develop. Cold air advection will push 850 mb temperatures in the 0 to -6 C range into Nebraska keeping highs only in the 50s on Saturday. Overnight lows will also remain chilly int he low to mid 20s both Friday and Saturday nights. Temperatures gradually warm into the mid 60s to low 70s on Sunday and eventually back into the low to mid 80s by Tuesday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1229 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Some stronger northeast winds with gusts up to 25 knots are expected this afternoon across portions of southwest Nebraska. Otherwise, the main aviation concern will be the potential for some scattered rain showers across much of the region into tonight. Isolated showers will begin to impact portions of northern Nebraska and into the Panhandle by mid to late afternoon. Shower activity will slowly spread eastward into the evening and overnight hours. Main threats with these storms will be some minor visibility restrictions, small hail, and briefly gusty winds. Conditions gradually improve around sunrise Wednesday and through the morning hours. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for NEZ204-206-208>210-219. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kulik LONG TERM...Kulik AVIATION...Kulik  112 FXUS65 KPSR 141945 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 1245 PM MST Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Weak high pressure will settle over the region through the middle portion of the week providing warming temperatures and dry conditions. - Breezy to locally windy conditions will return for the back half of the work week with elevated Fire Weather conditions focused around the Lower Colorado River Valley - Widespread above normal temperatures are expected by the end of the weekend and the start of next week with readings warming into the low to mid 90s. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Positively titled troughing has begun to push out of the Desert Southwest with the center of this feature now located near the Colorado/Utah border. However, the trailing axis still extends down through much of Arizona, keeping negative height anomalies overhead. This cooler airmass, combined the dry air that moved in behind the Monday night cold front will provide a very pleasant day across the region has temperatures are expected to run around 5 degrees below normal for this point in April. That translates to highs for the lower deserts from the upper 70s to lower 80s, while higher terrain readings will be closer to the upper 60s to lower 70s. Low amplitude ridging will build in the wake of the exiting system, providing at least a modest warm up for Wednesday with highs rebounding back to right around normal. Afternoon readings for lower desert locales will be generally in the middle to upper 80s, with perhaps a few spots, mainly out in SE California seeing a return to the 90s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... By Thursday, a large Pacific weather system is slated to move southeastward through the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin leading to height falls over our region and an increasing pressure gradient. Breezy to locally windy conditions are likely to affect much of the area starting Thursday afternoon and again on Friday as the system moves by just to our north. Advisory level winds may also be possible, particularly across southeast California and the Colorado River Valley. Near normal temperatures Thursday are forecast to dip on Friday as the NBM/WPC shows highs back into a 80-85 degree range. Stronger ridging is then favored to build across the Western U.S. over the weekend pushing daytime highs to near 90 degrees Saturday and then into a 90-95 degree range for Sunday and next Monday. The weather pattern through at least the first half of next week should support continued dry weather along with at least one more weather system passing by to our north creating breezy to windy conditions. && .AVIATION...Updated at 1728Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: No major aviation concerns are expected throughout the TAF period. Winds will begin to follow typical diurnal trends today with speeds aob 10kts through out the period. Easterly shift is expected around midnight tonight for the overnight period. Otherwise, clear skies will prevail through the rest of the TAF period. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No major aviation concerns are expected throughout the TAF period. Wind speeds will generally remain AOB 10 kts through the TAF period at both terminals. KIPL will stay out of the NW through the afternoon, going VRB by the evening hours then quickly settling back out of the west for the overnight hours, and KBLH will be mostly VRB with a period of NNE winds this afternoon. Clear skies will persist through the TAF period. && .FIRE WEATHER... A weather system will exit the region today with only lingering chances for isolated light showers across the eastern Arizona high terrain this morning. Weak high pressure and drying conditions will prevail for the rest of today through Wednesday with overall light winds. MinRHs will dip to between 15-20% today and 10-15% on Wednesday as overnight recoveries become poor to fair starting tonight at 30-50%. Another passing weather system late week will likely bring increased winds and even lower RHs resulting in the potential for elevated fire weather conditions on Thursday and Friday. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kuhlman LONG TERM...Kuhlman AVIATION...Ryan FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman  968 FXUS65 KFGZ 141947 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1247 PM MST Tue Apr 14 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Isolated showers continue into Tuesday evening as the current storm system moves eastward. Another round of windy weather is expected Thursday, followed by cooler temperatures Friday as a weather system passes to our north. The weekend looks dry with warmer daytime temperatures and well below normal morning lows. && .DISCUSSION...Much cooler weather has arrived following the passage of last night's low pressure system. Mid day temperatures were in the 40s at mountain locations with 50s at lower elevations. Although the main low has moved into western Colorado, a trailing shortwave will bring the potential for isolated showers for the remainder of the afternoon and well into the evening from around the Mogollon Rim northward. Any rain showers that develop could be mixed with graupel down to near 6000 feet elevation. Wednesday - a shortwave ridge moves in briefly, bringing temperatures back near normal and lighter southwest winds of 10-15 mph. Thursday and Friday - another trough is forecast to pass by to our north, bringing southwest winds gusting to 35-45 mph and continued mild weather Thursday, followed by much cooler temperatures Friday. Friday's winds will shift to northwesterly gusting 25-35 mph. In the latest model guidance, the trough passes too far north for precipitation in Arizona, with PoP values less than 10% along the northern border Thursday night/Friday. Very dry air behind this shortwave and decreasing winds could lead to some of the coldest temperatures we've seen in well over a month on Saturday morning at high country locations. If you live above 5000 feet you should plan on protecting any outside plants and/or disconnecting hoses. The rest of the weekend looks dry with a warming trend. Southwest winds may increase again early next week as another low approaches the southwest United States, but there is still plenty of spread in the track and timing of the system so confidence is low right now. && .AVIATION...Tuesday 14/18Z through Wednesday 15/18Z...Mainly VFR, with lingering MVFR CIGs this morning and isolated -SHRA through 03Z. Winds primarily west at 10-20 kts. Gusts to 25-30 kts east of KFLG. Winds becoming light and variable at less than 10 kts overnight. OUTLOOK...Wednesday 15/18Z through Friday 17/18Z...VFR conditions. Winds southwest to west at 5-15 kts on Wednesday, becoming southwest at 15-25 kts gusting to 30-40 kts on Thursday. Winds remaining locally gusty Thursday night. && .FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday...Dry conditions with seasonable temperatures. Winds are southwest through west 5-15 mph on Wednesday, then increase to 15-25 mph gusting 30-45 mph on Thursday. Minimum RH is 10-20% each day. Friday through Sunday...Dry through the period. Winds northwest through west 10-20 mph gusting 25-35 mph on Friday, becoming variable at 5-15 mph on Saturday, then turning south through southwest on Sunday. Minimum RH is 10-20% on Friday, then a bit drier at 10-15% on Saturday and Sunday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...JJ AVIATION...Lewandowski FIRE WEATHER...Lewandowski For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff  405 FXUS63 KMQT 141950 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 350 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread fog, dense at times, and drizzle is expected to develop tonight as temperatures cool and weak, moist flow remains in place. - The threat for flooding continues through the week due to snowmelt and potential showers and thunderstorms. A Flood Watch is in effect for the entire U.P., ending Wednesday morning over the far west and Thursday night elsewhere. - A prolonged period of well above freezing temperatures and higher dewpoints will continue to bring increased snowmelt, especially Thursday into Friday. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday night but the main contributor for potential flooding over the next few days will be snowmelt. - Showers and Thunderstorms are expected with a cold front Friday night into Saturday early morning. This will bring the potential for heavier rainfall, there is a 10-30% chance for 1" or more of rainfall. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 350 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 This afternoon an expansive area of low clouds was over the U.P. with upslope flow bringing fog into the Keweenaw. Winds had turned southerly bringing warmer, moist air northwards into northern WI, approaching the far western U.P. Between the mess of low, mid and upper level clouds there were a few breaks starting and wouldn't be surprised for locations closer to the MI/WI state line to see some sunshine this afternoon. Temperatures were in the 40s to low 50s across the U.P. but still expecting the south and west to rise into the 60s by late afternoon or early evening. The warmest air was over central and southern WI where a warm front was stalled. Fog and drizzle this morning had diminished with the exception of the Keweenaw. Rivers were still slowly rising over the central and eastern U.P. but a trend downwards was starting in the far west where much of the snowpack has eroded. Though most of the snowpack was also gone in the south-central heavy rainfall over the last several days continued to cause flooding. The warm front will move very little through Wednesday with the U.P. remaining on the cooler side of the boundary. The biggest impacts to the weather through tomorrow will continue to be warmer temperatures and higher dew points leading to increased snowmelt, with potential flooding of river, small streams, creeks and low lying areas. With the low level moisture and weak flow expect that fog, dense at times, will become widespread tonight along with drizzle as the saturated layer reaches upwards of 3 kft. There will be elevated instability over the area and a few showers, possibly a thunderstorm far south, could get kicked off as a shortwave and upper level jet move across the region tonight. However, the better dynamics will be further south in WI so not expecting strong or severe thunderstorms tonight. Rainfall amounts should generally be light with any showers that do form. Wednesday will start out foggy with drizzle but expect conditions to improve through the day, we could even see a rare appearance of the sun over the central and west during the afternoon. Much like today temperatures will vary greatly across the U.P, with low 40s in the far north to the low 60s south. A few showers are possible in the afternoon as a shortwave approaches the area. The chance for showers will increase Wednesday night, especially over the south and east as the shortwave passes through the area. Precip amounts look to be less than a quarter of an inch though cant rule out locally higher amounts should thunderstorms form in the south and east. A warmer stretch is expected for Thursday into Friday as a deep trough moves into the western U.S. Easterly winds will develop on Thursday, becoming southerly by Friday. This will bring the potential for some of the warmest temperatures thus far this spring, reaching into the 70s over the west (90% chance for temperatures over 70). The strengthening southerly winds, warm temperatures and higher dew points will accelerate the melting of the snowpack further with continued flooding concerns. More uncertainly exists for the weekend as the low pressure moves east along or north of Lake Superior. Slower solutions keep warmer air in the U.P. well into Saturday while faster solutions would bring a front through and much cooler temperatures by Saturday morning. Another round of rain and thunderstorms is likely to accompany the front. Behind the front it will be much cooler with snow showers possible Saturday night into Sunday. Some guidance still suggests a wet snowfall for the western U.P. NBM probabilities for 2" or more of wet snow in the west are around 20-40% Saturday night into Sunday. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 157 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 While SAW and IWD start the 18Z TAF period out with low end MVFR cigs and VFR vis, CMX will continue to observe upslope LIFR to IFR fog and low cigs. All sites are expected to deteriorate to VLIFR tonight as widespread dense fog sets up over the region courtesy of ample low level moisture with weak flow. && .MARINE... Issued at 350 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Light, stable flow is expected through Thursday with a weak pressure gradient over the area. Dense fog is expected to expand tonight over much of the lake and continue into Wednesday morning. There is low confidence in how quickly the fog will erode on Wednesday. Southerly winds will develop and increase on Friday ahead of a deepening low pressure, 30% chance for gales over the eastern lake. This low will push through over the weekend bringing a cold front and the potential for northwesterly gales (around 50% chance Saturday night into Sunday). && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 350 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 NOHRSC analysis showed the the snowpack had eroded over much of the southern and far western U.P. Over the north and east several inches to over a foot of SWE remained, greatest in the higher terrain. Snowmelt will continue through the week and accelerate late in the week as a warm, moist airmass moves into the U.P. Additional rain chances continue, mainly Wednesday night and Friday night. Rainfall Wednesday night will likely be less than a quarter inch but heavier rainfall is possible for Friday night. NBM has a 10-30% chance for an inch of more of rainfall Friday night. Colder weather is expected for Saturday night and Sunday which should slow the melt of any remaining snow. Flooding in the wake of snowmelt and multiple heavy rain events continued over the south-central U.P. today. Though the snowpack is mostly gone in the south-central; swamps, creeks, low lying areas and rivers remain full/high and additional showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday night. This could exacerbate the ongoing flooding though widespread heavy rainfall is not expected. For the north and east snowmelt and potential rainfall will continue the flooding threat though the week with the analysis and observations showing over a foot of SWE in the higher terrain. Rivers in the far western U.P. were beginning to fall and anticipate that the Flood Watch will be able to expire Wednesday morning. Will be extending the Flood Watch for all but the far western U.P. until Thursday night. This may need to be extended further in time with future updates as even warmer temperatures and higher dew points, along with increasing winds are expected for Thursday and Friday. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for MIZ001-003>007- 010>014-084-085. Dense Fog Advisory from 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening to 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Wednesday for MIZ001>007-009>014-084- 085. Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for MIZ002-009. Lake Superior... Dense Fog Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ265>267. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NL AVIATION...77 MARINE...NL HYDROLOGY...  384 FXUS65 KPSR 141954 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 1254 PM MST Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Weak high pressure will settle over the region through the middle portion of the week providing warming temperatures and dry conditions. - Breezy to locally windy conditions will return for the back half of the work week with elevated Fire Weather conditions focused around the Lower Colorado River Valley - Widespread above normal temperatures are expected by the end of the weekend and the start of next week with readings warming into the low to mid 90s. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Positively titled troughing has begun to push out of the Desert Southwest with the center of this feature now located near the Colorado/Utah border. However, the trailing axis still extends down through much of Arizona, keeping negative height anomalies overhead. This cooler airmass, combined the dry air that moved in behind the Monday night cold front will provide a very pleasant day across the region has temperatures are expected to run around 5 degrees below normal for this point in April. That translates to highs for the lower deserts from the upper 70s to lower 80s, while higher terrain readings will be closer to the upper 60s to lower 70s. Low amplitude ridging will build in the wake of the exiting system, providing at least a modest warm up for Wednesday with highs rebounding back to right around normal. Afternoon readings for lower desert locales will be generally in the middle to upper 80s, with perhaps a few spots, mainly out in SE California seeing a return to the 90s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... By Thursday, a large Pacific weather system is slated to move southeastward through the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin leading to height falls over our region and an increasing pressure gradient. Breezy to locally windy conditions are likely to affect much of the area starting Thursday afternoon and again on Friday as the system moves by just to our north. Advisory level winds may also be possible, particularly across southeast California and the Colorado River Valley. Near normal temperatures Thursday are forecast to dip on Friday as the NBM/WPC shows highs back into a 80-85 degree range. Stronger ridging is then favored to build across the Western U.S. over the weekend pushing daytime highs to near 90 degrees Saturday and then into a 90-95 degree range for Sunday and next Monday. The weather pattern through at least the first half of next week should support continued dry weather along with at least one more weather system passing by to our north creating breezy to windy conditions. && .AVIATION...Updated at 1728Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: No major aviation concerns are expected throughout the TAF period. Winds will begin to follow typical diurnal trends today with speeds aob 10kts through out the period. Easterly shift is expected around midnight tonight for the overnight period. Otherwise, clear skies will prevail through the rest of the TAF period. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No major aviation concerns are expected throughout the TAF period. Wind speeds will generally remain AOB 10 kts through the TAF period at both terminals. KIPL will stay out of the NW through the afternoon, going VRB by the evening hours then quickly settling back out of the west for the overnight hours, and KBLH will be mostly VRB with a period of NNE winds this afternoon. Clear skies will persist through the TAF period. && .FIRE WEATHER... A weather system will exit the region today with only lingering chances for isolated light showers across the eastern Arizona high terrain this morning. Weak high pressure and drying conditions will prevail for the rest of today through Wednesday with overall light winds. MinRHs will dip to between 15-20% today and 10-15% on Wednesday as overnight recoveries become poor to fair starting tonight at 30-50%. Another passing weather system late week will likely bring increased winds and even lower RHs resulting in the potential for elevated fire weather conditions on Thursday and Friday. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM...Kuhlman AVIATION...Ryan FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman  631 FXUS63 KFSD 141955 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 255 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated strong to severe storms are possible mainly Wednesday afternoon along and east of a Spencer to Sioux City line. Ping pong ball sized hail and 60 mph winds will be the main threats. - Elevated to near critical fire danger is expected Thursday with a break from rainfall, much warmer temperatures, strong winds, and low humidity. Winds may lead to elevated conditions Friday, although shower and storm chances may temper concerns. - Strong to severe storms will be possible again on Friday, though uncertainty in the timing of a cold frontal passage leads to a lower confidence forecast regarding the extent of the severe weather threat. As of now, areas near and east of I-29 are favored for stronger storms. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 233 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Radar is picking up on a stripe of showers extending from roughly Marshall, MN to Gregory, SD this afternoon, but most of this will not be reaching the ground due high cloud heights and dry air beneath said clouds. Scattered showers and storms will continue to develop off to our south and west over the next hour or so where the greater surface moisture is. Can't entirely rule out an elevated thunderstorm over northwest Iowa as soundings show a few hundred J/kg of CAPE lifted from around 750 mb this afternoon, but likely not enough for severe weather. However, small hail would be possible with mid level lapse rates around 7-7.5 C/km and 50-60 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear if a thunderstorm can develop. A boundary will be lifting northward across the region late tonight into Wednesday morning. The NAMNest is the fastest with this boundary arrival, bringing in storms to the Highway 20 corridor just before sunrise Wednesday, but this remains an outlier. What's more likely to occur is showers and storms not developing until the afternoon as the boundary continues drifting northward and instability increases due to daytime heating. Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible given mid level lapse rates greater than 8 C/km and bulk shear in the 45-55 kt range. The main threat with any of these afternoon storms would be large hail up to ping pong ball in size followed by damaging wind gusts to 60 mph. If we do get morning showers or storms tomorrow, then that may limit the ability for the atmosphere to recover in the afternoon, thus less afternoon instability. The best chance of an isolated severe storm Wednesday afternoon will be roughly along and east of a Spencer to Sioux City line. Any storms will push east of the area heading into Wednesday evening as the surface low and upper wave move out of the area. We are dry for Thursday, but this may come with the potential for critical fire danger in parts of the area. Southwesterly winds look to return for areas mainly along and west of I-29, which will help drop relative humidity values down to 25% and below Thursday afternoon. With temperatures in the 80s and winds gusting to 25 to 30 mph, a very high fire danger can be expected for most of the area. Uncertainty remains on how strong the winds will get and how far east these stronger winds make it, and if the grasses are starting to green up enough to prevent more widespread fire weather concerns. With that, held off on fire weather headlines for now until certainty grows. The main western US trough that has been helping to send all these impulses across the area over the past couple of days will finally move eastward heading into Friday, pushing a strong cold front into the area. Ahead of the front, warm and moister air will be favorable for thunderstorms, some of which could be strong to severe mainly east of I-29. Timing of the cold front will play a role in how much coverage of storms can be expected, with a faster passage meaning a lower threat and a slower passage leading to a greater threat of stronger storms. One thing is for more certain is the colder air that will follow this system, with lows expected to drop below freezing for most of the area by Saturday morning. This means some rain with this system may at least briefly turn to snow as the precipitation exits the area, but confidence is very low on this potential. Either way, expect much cooler temperatures heading into the Friday night through Sunday morning time frame. After this push of colder air, ridging aloft looks to return and thus a quick warming trend looks possible into early next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1218 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions expected this afternoon into this evening with northerly winds turning light and variable into tonight. A few thunderstorms will move towards the Highway 20 corridor in northwest Iowa by daybreak into Wednesday morning, though uncertainty remains on just how far north these storms will make it. Enough confidence to at least include a PROB30 group at KSUX for -TSRA, but trends will be monitored. Winds will remain mostly light and variable into the day on Wednesday. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Samet AVIATION...Samet  932 FXUS64 KMOB 141956 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 256 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 241 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Moderate to extreme drought, with little to no rain over the next 7 days, will exacerbate wildfire activity. - Patchy to areas of fog development, some of which could be dense, is possible over the next few nights. - A moderate rip current risk is expected for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches through the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 241 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A strong upper-level ridge is expected to maintain its hold over the southeast US through Saturday. This ridge, along with high pressure anchored over the western Atlantic, will help to maintain warm and dry conditions through the remainder of the week and into Saturday. The only feature that does attempt to pass near the local area over the next few days is a weakening shortwave that pushes across the Tennessee River Valley on Thursday. At this point, any forcing associated with this shortwave looks to remain to our north and overall deep moisture values continue to remain rather limited, so no rain is anticipated. Highs through Saturday will generally range from the upper 70s to low 80s along the coast to the mid to upper 80s inland. Would not be surprised to see one or two inland locations crack the 90 degree mark by late week. Lows will generally range from the upper 50s to mid 60s. With strong ridging in place, along with light winds and saturated boundary layer conditions, fog development continues to remain likely over the next several nights. Probabilistic guidance suggests that interior counties will have the best potential to see dense fog. The pattern finally begins to break down by Sunday as a longwave trough pushes eastward across the CONUS. This will allow for a cold front to approach and pass trough the local area. Overall moisture and forcing are rather meager with this frontal passage, however, we may be able to squeeze out a few isolated to widely scattered showers (and possibly a storm) late Saturday night into Sunday as the front passes through. After its passage, high pressure builds in to our north, allowing for drier and slightly cooler air to filter in for the start of next week. Highs Sunday and Monday will reach the mid to upper 70s and lows will range from the mid to upper 40s north to the low to mid 50s south. A Moderate Risk of rip currents will continue through the week. RCMOS probabilistic guidance suggests that we may drop to a low risk by this weekend. /96 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1237 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions prevail through early this evening. Occasional gusts of 20-25 knots will accompany the southerly to south- southeasterly winds of 10-15 knots this afternoon before turning calm overnight. Another round of LIFR to VLIFR visibility is possible after midnight as fog re-develops across inland areas. Conditions at the coastal terminals will likely be MVFR to IFR around sunrise. 07/mb && .MARINE... Issued at 241 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A light to moderate southeasterly flow continues through Wednesday, becoming more southerly by Thursday. Moderate to occasionally strong offshore flow returns by Sunday in the wake of a cold front. Small Craft Advisories may become necessary for Sunday and into Monday. /96 && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 241 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Little to no relief is expected for our ongoing drought situation as mainly dry conditions continue over the next 7 days. Although afternoon humidity values and 20 foot wind speeds remain below Red Flag criteria, the worsening drought will continue to lead to an elevated fire risk across the area through Saturday. We will have to monitor conditions closely by Sunday and into early next week after a cold front passes through the area. We could get very close to Red Flag criteria by Monday/Tuesday timeframe as humidity values drop into the low 20% range and winds increase. /96 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 61 83 64 84 / 0 0 0 10 Pensacola 63 80 64 81 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 64 78 65 78 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 55 87 57 86 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 57 86 61 86 / 0 0 0 10 Camden 55 86 59 85 / 0 0 0 10 Crestview 57 86 57 85 / 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$  414 FXUS61 KAKQ 141957 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 357 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Added additional daily records for 4/17 (Fri), 4/18 (Sat) to the Climate Section. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Record to near-record high temperatures prevail through Thursday. 2) Continued dry with fire weather concerns expected for much of the week. 3) Well above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather continue through Saturday. A stronger cold front brings a chance for showers on Sunday, but it does not look at all like a widespread soaking rain. Many areas likely see less than 0.10". && .DISCUSSION... As of 315 PM EDT Tuesday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Record to near-record high temperatures prevail through Thursday. Surface high pressure has settled well offshore of the Carolina coast, with strong upper ridging situated from the Gulf coast to Southeast CONUS. High pressure will build into the western Atlantic during the next day or so. The resulting persistent return flow will lock in a very warm, dry SSW flow regime through Thursday. This Bermuda High setup, more typical of early to mid summer, will allow for record to near record high temperatures through Thursday. The primary difference from summer will be MUCH lower dew pts which will keep apparent temperatures at or below actual air temperatures, which is far more comfortable than typical summertime conditions. As of mid aftn, temperatures are primarily ranging through the mid to upper 80s with dew pts in the 50s and corresponding apparent T values in the 80s. Some places will likely reach ~90F for highs which would challenge daily records. Lows tonight will be in the low-mid 60s for most, with highs Wed-Thu a few degrees above today's values (into the low-mid 90s) given increasing 925-850 mb temperatures and continued deep mixing. Highs will be a few degrees cooler on the eastern shore. The current records at our long- term climate sites noted in the climate section below. KEY MESSAGE 2...Continued dry with fire weather concerns expected for much of the week. With high pressure dominating our weather pattern, and no appreciable precipitation expected through the end of the week, fire weather concerns will remain an issue to monitor for much of the rest of the week. After collaboration with VA State Forestry, have issued an Increased Fire Danger Statement for portions of VA where aftn gusts to around 20 mph are co-located with min RH values at or below 30%, along with highs around 90F. This generally includes all of central and east central. Similar conditions are likely Wed-Thu with minimum RH values averaging 25-30% inland and 30-35% closer to the coast through Thursday, keeping fire wx conditions around critical fire wx thresholds through much of the week. KEY MESSAGE 3...Well above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather continue through Saturday. A stronger cold front brings a chance for showers on Sunday, but it does not look at all like a widespread soaking rain. Many areas likely see less than 0.10". Slightly cooler mid 80s to around 90F on Friday as a weak shortwave brings more cloud cover to the area. Moisture return ahead of this feature will be meager, so only isolated showers are possible on Friday with that shortwave (mainly confined to the far N). Rain amounts will likely be a few hundredths of an inch at best, and most areas will stay dry (latest 12Z models are drier than last night's 00Z runs as well). Very warm/hot and dry (lower 90s inland) for Saturday as upper heights build again. The global models and ensembles show continuity and high confidence that a stronger front crosses the area on Sunday as low pressure tracks into Ontario/Quebec. While moisture return ahead of this front will be better than what is expected on Friday, it does not look promising for a widespread soaking rain. Isolated to perhaps scattered showers are possible during the day, with a low chc of a tstm. Ensemble probs of 0.10"+ of rain are 40-60% across the NE 1/2 of the area, and even lower for interior NE NC and south central VA. Cooler wx returns behind the front early next week, with highs mainly in the 60s to near 70F and lows down into the upper 30s to mid 40s for Mon night/Tue AM. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 200 PM EDT Tuesday... High pressure offshore of the region will favor VFR conditions through the TAF period and beyond. Skies will be mostly clear outside of high clouds through the period. Aftn winds will be SW at 10-12 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, then 5-10 kt overnight. Outlook: VFR and dry conditions are expected to prevail through Saturday. Mainly S-SW winds also prevail throughout the forecast period, as high pressure settles over the western Atlantic. && .MARINE... As of 245 PM EDT Tuesday... -Generally sub-SCA through the end of the week with a brief surge in winds Thurs night -Stronger, more prolonged SCA conditions possible late in the weekend into early next week. High pressure anchored offshore and ridging in over the east coast will remain more or less in place for the next few days. Benign marine conditions prevail today and through the rest of the mid week period. SW-S winds will stay at 10-15kt through at least Thurs evening. Daytime heating and mixing will lead to winds becoming gustier over land, so nearshore waters will also be gusty during the day with gusts up to 20kt. Seas will stay around 3ft during this time period with waves in the bay/rivers at 1-2ft. A weak cold front moves in over the waters Thurs night into Friday. Pressure gradient tightens slightly ahead of it, resulting in a brief bump up in the winds overnight. Expecting winds to pick up to 15-20kt with highest winds over the open ocean. Seas will build to 4ft and perhaps 5ft out near 20nm. Cannot rule out a brief SCA Thurs night, but confidence is low given the unimpressive front and marginal conditions that are forecast. And on that note, not expecting a post-frontal surge either. Looking ahead to the weekend, forecasting benign conditions Friday and Saturday. A stronger front is expected Sunday that may bring strong SCA conditions. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temps for 4/14 - 4/18 Record Record Record Record Record High/Yr High/Yr High/Yr High/Yr High/Yr Location 4/14 4/15 4/16 4/17 4/18 -------- ---- ----- ------ ------ ------ Richmond 90 (1977) 92 (1941) 93 (1976) 96 (1976) 95 (1976) Norfolk 90 (1941) 90 (2024) 91 (1976) 93 (2002) 95 (1896) Salisbury 87 (1941) 87 (1941) 89 (1976) 92 (2002) 90 (1976) Eliz. City 90 (1941) 91 (1941) 90 (1941) 92 (1976) 91 (1941) Record High Min Temps for 4/14 - 4/18 Record Record Record Record Record High High High High High Min T/Yr Min T/Yr Min T/Yr Min T/Yr Min T/Yr Location 4/14 4/15 4/16 -------- ---- ----- ------ Richmond 65 (1899) 64 (2018) 64 (1912) 65 (1912) 64 (2002) Norfolk 68 (2019) 68 (1941) 66 (2017) 68 (2002) 68 (2002) Salisbury 65 (1945) 64 (2002) 63 (2017) 64 (2002) 65 (1918) Eliz. City 68 (2019) 68 (1974) 68 (1994) 68 (1945) 65 (2002) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER until 7 PM EDT this evening for VAZ048- 060>062-064>069-075>085-087>090-509>522. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ERI/LKB AVIATION...ERI/LKB MARINE...AC CLIMATE...MAM  984 FXUS65 KCYS 141959 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 159 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered showers and the occasional thunderstorm are possible this afternoon. Main concern with any storms that form will be gusty winds. Severe weather not expected. - A High Wind Watch has been issued for the typical wind prone locations of southeast Wyoming from 6 AM through 3 PM Wednesday. - A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for most locations east of the Laramie Range from noon to 8 PM on Thursday. - A potent weather disturbance will produce windy, colder, and wetter weather for Thursday night and Friday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 1255 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Another round of showers and storms is possible this afternoon as current GOES-18 Satellite Imagery shows a low spinning over the Colorado/Utah border, near Grand Junction. Low-level and mid-level clouds are spewing out ahead of the low and starting to cover much of southeast Wyoming in clouds. Current radar suggests a few isolated to scattered showers mainly west of the Laramie Range at this time. Showers will become more widespread throughout the afternoon and evening hours as the low continues to traverse slowly to the east. A decent cumulus field has started to develop across the western Nebraska Panhandle where mid- and upper-level clouds have briefly cleared earlier this morning. Upper-level water vapor imagery shows the upper-level trough positioned across much of the Intermountain West with a distinct, positive tilt to the trough itself. As this upper-level trough continues its eastward progression today, the CWA will main under the right entrance region of the upper-level jet, suggesting continued synoptic lift across the region and increasing precipitation chances. Warm air advection is weakly in place overhead at the 700mb level, but not overly impressive for stronger storms this afternoon. HIRES model guidance suggest isolated pockets of MUCAPE up to about 500 J/kg for areas east of the Laramie Range, with MLCAPE lower and more capped. Given some instability in the area, an isolated thunderstorm or two cannot be completely ruled out, especially as temperatures across the Panhandle increase into the mid-60s. However, forecast RAP soundings suggest a stout inverted-V signature, suggesting a higher potential for gusty winds with and showers and storms that form this afternoon. Therefore, severe weather is not expected, but isolated thunderstorms with some lightning are expected, especially across the western Nebraska Panhandle where warmer temperatures are located. Precipitation chances slowly come to an end overnight, with Sidney potentially seeing showers through the early morning hours before the trough departs the region and subsidence returns in its wake. Wednesday will be a transition day across the region as precipitation chances end and a brief ridge develops ahead of the next incoming system for Thursday into the long term forecast. The 700mb flow suggests that while a transition period is expected, it will potentially be filled with strong to near-high wind criteria winds in the typical wind prone areas of southeast Wyoming and gusty conditions elsewhere. At 700mb, as the initial system starts to deepen, height gradients increase across western portions of the CWA through the early to late morning hours. Then, increasing gradients are expected in the mid- to late-afternoon hours as the next 700mb trough begins to deepen across central Montana. As this system deepens, a 50 to 55kt 700mb jet kicks up across the Laramie Range with GFS Omega values suggesting modest to strong subsidence across the Laramie Range and near the Arlington/Elk Mountain area. As a result, a lower-confidence High Wind Watch has been issued for the typical wind prone areas of southeast Wyoming from 6 AM to 3 PM Wednesday, with gusts up to 60mph possible. While some parameters, namely the Craig to Casper gradients, are not super onboard with high winds, enough evidence exists to suggest the need the for a Watch. Luckily, with strong subsident flow, highs in the mid-50s to low-70s are expected Thursday with clearing skies behind the departing trough. Precipitation is not expected for most areas. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 1255 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Our ridge starts to become flattened and pushed off to the east Thursday. A cold low pressure system will start to push into the Intermountain west as it dives southeast from the Saskatchewan/Albertan Providences bringing a colder airmass with it. A cold front will start push through the Southeast Wyoming area late afternoon to early evening. Models show it being a pretty stout front with temps in the 50's in front and 30's behind it. However, due to the timing of the front a fire weather watch was issued for Goshen, Platte, Laramie, and the Nebraska Panhandle counties as RH values look likely to drop between 10 and 15 percent for the afternoon coupled with the breezy winds between 20 to 25 mph. Converse and Niobrara weren't included because there is uncertainty with how low the RH will drop before the cold front pushes through raising the humidity above possible threshold values. There will be some showers associated with this front as well. Looking at the model soundings the mid-levels will saturate first and produce virga at first. But the virga should reach the ground into the overnight period and likely come down as snow as we saturate the lower levels and below freezing. 700mb temperatures look to drop to about -13C making it for a colder Wyoming Friday with temps in the 30's while the Panhandle looks to be in the low 40's. The snow showers will continue into Friday as the pressure system start to makes its way into the Northern Plains. Friday night will be the peak of the cold airmass as overnight temperatures drop into the teens and twenties. Another ridge will also start to push into the Intermountain west late Friday afternoon keeping us in Northwesterly flow filtering in that colder air from the North and tightening our pressure gradient creating a cold breezy wind as well. Total accumulations from the Thursday/Friday system looks to be around 3-4 inches in areas west of the I-25 corridor, 2-3 inches along the I-25 corridor, and about 1-2 inches east of the corridor. For the Nebraska Panhandle it looks to be roughly 0.5 to 1 inch of snow with some 1-2 inch areas closer to the WY/NE border. By Saturday morning the system should be far enough east to stop snowing while the ridge moves further east as well. The airmass over the intermountain west will gradually warm up but the Saturday temps will still be in the 40's and 50's. Sunday, warm temps in the 60/70's east of I-25 return with mostly clear skies in the afternoon. This warmer ridge is currently expected to last until Tuesday morning before another shortwave could possibly hit the Intermountain West again. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1150 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Looking at satellite and Airport observations further southwest into the CO/UT area, Cloud ceilings are going to bounce between MVFR and VFR today with a chance for KLAR to drop to around 1,000ft with those afternoon showers. These showers are expected to move northeast throughout the day with the possibility of some thunderstorms after 00z for KSNY. The low to mid level clouds should start clearing out by 06z leaving some transient high clouds to push through. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for WYZ430>433. High Wind Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon for WYZ106-110-116-117. NE...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for NEZ434>437. && $$ SHORT TERM...AM LONG TERM...MM AVIATION...MM