864 FXUS63 KAPX 142002 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 402 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Ongoing flooding may worsen with additional rain and storms through daybreak. Highest rainfall expected south of M-72. - Severe thunderstorm chances tonight and again Tuesday evening/Tuesday night with primary hazards of damaging winds and large hail. - Additional rounds of rain and mild temperatures through this week before turning cold late this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 400 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Pattern Synopsis: Subtle shortwave/jet max embedded in southwest mid/upper-level flow will punch overhead this evening and tonight. At the surface, a stationary boundary draped across the middle of the state and back across portions of the Midwest will provide the focus for thunderstorms over the next several hours. Little substantial airmass change should allow these boundaries to hang across the area into Thursday before eventually working south. Ridging looks to slide overhead for a brief time Friday before strong troughing digs across the central CONUS and Great Lakes this weekend. Forecast Details: Primary concern will be another expected round of thunderstorms later this evening and early tonight. Current confidence is that storms will fire much further upstream across parts of the Midwest this afternoon and eventually work east into Michigan -- similar to last night. That said, expectation is that strongest storms and heaviest rainfall will track slightly further south than what was observed last night. Highest threat area for strong storms and associated heavy rainfall will be south of M-72, and specifically along and south of M-55. This corridor has the potential to see additional rainfall totals of 1"+ overnight. Rainfall amounts taper off from south to north, ranging from 0.25"-0.5" near M-72 to around 0.10" across the Tip of the Mitt. Locally higher amounts are possible with any stray storms that track across this area. Any additional rainfall tonight will only exacerbate ongoing flooding across northern Michigan -- the magnitude and widespread nature of which is particularly impressive for the area. Storms this evening will also carry the potential of producing severe weather. The most likely corridor of potential strong/severe storms will also be along/south of M-72 between 8 PM and 1 AM Wednesday. The primary concerns with any strong storms this evening on top of additional flooding will be damaging winds and large hail. Storm chances look to move out a few hours after midnight. After tonight, patchy dense fog will be possible Wednesday morning again along with isolated light rain chances through most of the day before much better rain/storm chances return again late Wednesday into Thursday. A break in rain chances is anticipated on Friday with aforementioned ridging before more showers and storms are expected again on Saturday. Unfortunately for those across impacted flood areas, additional rain chances will likely only prolong impacts over the next several days as water levels try to come down. Now for the exciting part -- after a stretch of mild temperatures in the 60s and 70s, snow chances make a triumphant return on Sunday as temperatures plunge back into the 20s and 30s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 132 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 General trends point towards bettering conditions (MVFR to high end IFR) across terminals this afternoon/evening ahead of an additional wave of showers and thunderstorms expected to pass through tonight generally after 00z. Conditions will deteriorate through the night with melting snow creating areas of BR and FG and showers dropping ceilings and visibilities as well. Thinking it will be similar to what we saw this morning. Wind gusts up to 15 knots will be possible through the period (higher within any stronger storms, especially TVC and MBL). && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Flood Watch through late Thursday night for MIZ016>018-020>036- 041-042-086>088-095-096-099. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DJC AVIATION...NSC  099 FXUS63 KFGF 142006 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 306 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a 20% chance for advisory level winter impacts from accumulating snow and gusty winds Friday into Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 306 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...Synopsis... Large scale pattern features a split in zonal flow over the Northern Plains, with a mid level shortwave east of our region. Surface high pressure is in place with stratus slowly starting to break up. Additional fog/stratus may redevelop later tonight after the current low clouds clear, with better chances for mainly aviation impacts in north central MN. Deeper westerly flow aloft will support deepening low pressure on the Lee side of the Northern Rockies and increasing southerly flow/WAA Wednesday through Thursday morning. A deepening mid/upper level trough over the Pacific Northwest builds eastward late this week into the weekend. The initial cold front arrives late in the day Thursday and may result in a large spread in potential high temperatures north to south (low 50s to near 80F depending on timing within our CWA). It will also bring chances for rain and snow back to our region from Friday through Saturday. As that trough passes, there is a strong consensus in mid/upper level ridging arriving by early next week, with rising heights reflective of increasing temperatures (60s/70s by Tuesday). This pattern also lowers the probability of measurable precipitation, though the orientation of the ridge/flow aloft may still allow for fast moving shortwave trough passages near our CWA. ...Winter travel impact potential Friday into Saturday... As stronger synoptic ascent and WAA in the 850-700 MB layer overspread our CWA several periods of light to moderate precipitation (mainly rain) should move west to east through our CWA Friday into Saturday morning. All ensembles at this time support the main closed 700MB low tracking over Manitoba, placing the potential for stronger frontogensis to the north, while most precipitation in our CWA will be driven by WAA or broader deformation on the back side of the 500MB low. While there is overall strong consensus on the larger scale track, smaller scale features at the surface (low track/frontal timing) still play a role in the potential for winter impacts. A larger number of ensemble members generally keep temperature profiles in place supportive of liquid with surface temperatures above freezing outside of the overnight/morning periods for most locations (limiting potential for accumulating snow or a wintry mix). In this scenario (80% chance) most areas would see little to no accumulation (better chance for 1" in the Devils Lake Basin). There is still a subset of members (20%) that support more organized deformation while temperature profiles are cold enough for all snow and have better chance for snow totals greater than 3". As ground temperatures are warmer, most of this will tend to be on grassy/elevated surfaces that may limit impacts outside of snow rates/wind reducing visibility where moderate/brief heavy snow would track. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1244 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Precipitation and fog have ended, however low stratus (MVFR and pockets of IFR) over eastern ND and northwest MN. There is an expected clearing trend in this stratus layer from SD into southeast ND and eventually northeast ND through the afternoon and early evening (south to north), however northern and eastern locations in ND and west central MN may see stratus linger into the early evening. Additional stratus and the potential for light fog may redevelop late in the evening/overnight period over north central MN (best chances at KBJI). Increasing southerly winds late tonight into Thursday morning over eastern ND should help keep VFR conditions in place for those locations (limiting the potential for radiational fog/stratus). && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DJR AVIATION...DJR  774 FXCA62 TJSJ 142009 AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 409 PM AST Tue Apr 14 2026 .UPDATE... Rainfall activity have decreased across the region as patches of drier air from the subsident side of the upper-level trough moves over the region. However, the development of additional rainfall activity may result localized flooding each afternoon, especially across the interior and western Puerto Rico. At this time, the Flood Watch is cancelled for all of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 215 PM AST Tue Apr 14 2026/ .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 400 PM AST Tue Apr 14 2026 * An unstable weather pattern will persist this afternoon, with showers and thunderstorms developing across portions of Puerto Rico and the USVI. The Flood Watch remains in effect through Wednesday morning. * A wet pattern, associated with the remnants of the trough, will likely continue each afternoon through the weekend. * A high risk of rip currents is present along the northwestern, north, and east-facing beaches of Puerto Rico, including Culebra, through at least Wednesday afternoon. * Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, variable and unsettled weather conditions will prevail, driven by increasing atmospheric instability and shifting wind patterns. && .Short Term (This evening through Thursday)... Issued at 400 PM AST Tue Apr 14 2026 As mentioned in previous forecast discussions, the forecast for this unsettled and wet weather pattern associated with a deepening cut- off low has been challenging, mostly due to the positioning and timing of the heaviest rainfall activity. However, Vieques, Culebra, the USVI, and southwestern/southern Puerto Rico have received between 2 and 4 inches of rain over the last 24 hours. The Rio Guanajibo went out of its banks late last night, flooding roads in areas of Hormigueros and Cabo Rojo. During the morning hours, a line of strong showers and thunderstorms developed just offshore from San Juan through Fajardo, but later moved over the waters and continued to converge and redevelop in areas between Vieques, Culebra, and the USVI. For the rest of the afternoon, expect these areas to remain active. However, satellite data showed cloud clearing during the morning hours. This allowed the sea breeze to develop, which has led to showers and isolated thunderstorms over interior Puerto Rico. Expect this activity to persist through the evening hours. The positioning of the upper-level trough places the western part of the forecast area near the boundary between subsidence and favorable dynamics. Therefore, the strength of convection will depend on the exact placement of that subsidence boundary. However, strong thunderstorms developed between Caguas and the San Juan/Carolina metro area, where a Special Weather Statement was issued early this afternoon. Despite the forecast challenges, antecedent conditions with saturated soils and elevated streamflows continue to increase the flooding threat, as any persistent heavy rain will quickly result in rapid river rises and excessive runoff that could lead to urban and river flooding, with possible flash flooding and landslides, particularly over interior and southwestern Puerto Rico. However, this activity is not expected to be widespread and should remain more localized in nature. For the remainder of the short-term forecast, the trough will meander over the area and combine with above-normal moisture. With this setup, active afternoons are likely, with the development of strong thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rain, frequent lightning, and gusty winds. As mentioned earlier, soils are saturated and streamflows remain elevated; therefore, any additional persistent heavy rain will maintain an elevated flooding risk. Please continue to monitor the forecast throughout the week. && .Long Term (Friday through next Monday)... Issued at 400 PM AST Tue Apr 14 2026 An unsettled weather pattern is expected Friday through the weekend into early next week as a short wave trough sinks into the Caribbean. At the surface, high pressure over the western to central Atlantic will promote moderate to fresh ESE to easterly winds Friday and Saturday, becoming easterly Sunday and slightly ENE by Monday. The pressure gradient will remain uneven, with stronger winds across eastern areas and weaker flow farther west, supporting faster moving showers in the east and slower storm motion in the west. Moisture will increase Friday into the weekend, with PWAT values above normal and at times exceeding climatological maxima, before slightly drier air filters in late Sunday into Monday. Aloft, a jet streak will lift over the area by Monday, while mid level temperatures remain modestly cool. This pattern will support periods of convection and isolated to locally scattered thunderstorm development across the region. Confidence is medium, as details depend on the timing and placement of the trough and deeper moisture. Flooding will be the primary hazard, followed by lightning and breezy conditions. Showers and isolated to locally scattered thunderstorms are expected daily, generally favoring eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands overnight into the morning, then shifting westward each afternoon based on the latest model guidance. The greatest risk will focus over northwestern Puerto Rico Friday and Saturday, western Puerto Rico on Sunday, and southwestern Puerto Rico by Monday. Faster storm motion over eastern areas may limit rainfall totals, but slower moving convection in western sectors could enhance flooding impacts. Breezy conditions will persist due to the general wind flow and may be locally enhanced by thunderstorm downdrafts. Soils may remain saturated, which could further increase the risk of flooding, landslides, and rapid river rises. This pattern will likely disrupt outdoor plans at times. Conditions should gradually improve late Sunday into Monday, though some uncertainty remains. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 400 PM AST Tue Apr 14 2026 MVFR condt across most TAF sites from 14/18Z through 14/22Z, except TJPS. Unstable weather conds will continue to produce SHRA/TSRA across TJSJ and TJBQ. VCTS near TIST and TISX through 15/03Z. Recent PIREPs rpt LGT/MOD TURB, especially nr TJSJ/TIST/TISX. TURB may persist through the night at terminal sites. Winds will remain light and vrb with higher gusts at times. && .MARINE... Issued at 400 PM AST Tue Apr 14 2026 A surface high pressure system over the eastern to central Atlantic, interacting with a stationary frontal boundary north of the region, will promote light to gentle winds tonight. Pulses of northerly swell spreading across the Atlantic waters are maintaining seas around 5 to 6 feet across exposed areas, where small craft should exercise caution over the next several days. The combination of the front and the trough is increasing showers and thunderstorms across the local waters, creating locally hazardous marine conditions through at least midweek. Winds are expected to become gentle to moderate from the east to southeast from Wednesday onward. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 400 PM AST Tue Apr 14 2026 Based on current buoy observations, the forecast has been adjusted, and a high risk of rip currents is now in effect for the northwestern, north, and east-facing beaches of Puerto Rico, including Culebra. The Rip Current Statement is in effect from now through at least 6 PM AST Wednesday (tomorrow) due to energy arriving from pulses of a northerly swell. Beachgoers are urged to heed the advice of lifeguards, as well as beach patrol flags and posted signs. Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, a moderate risk of rip currents persists where rip currents are still possible, while a low risk remains along the southern beaches of the islands. Increasing winds from midweek onward could lead to a moderate risk of rip currents persisting along north-exposed beaches through at least next Saturday. Residents and visitors are encouraged to exercise caution, especially along exposed coasts. For more specific area details, refer to weather.gov/beach/sju. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for PRZ001-002- 005-008-010-012. VI...None. AM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CVB LONG TERM....ICP AVIATION...MMC  319 FXUS63 KAPX 142009 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 409 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Ongoing flooding may worsen with additional rain and storms this evening and tonight. Heaviest rain expected south of M-72, especially along/south of M-55 where 1"+ is possible. - Strong to severe storms are possible again this evening into tonight. Primary hazards will be damaging winds and large hail. - Additional rounds of rain and mild temperatures through this week before turning cold late this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 400 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Pattern Synopsis: Subtle shortwave/jet max embedded in southwest mid/upper-level flow will punch overhead this evening and tonight. At the surface, a stationary boundary draped across the middle of the state and back across portions of the Midwest will provide the focus for thunderstorms over the next several hours. Little substantial airmass change should allow these boundaries to hang across the area into Thursday before eventually working south. Ridging looks to slide overhead for a brief time Friday before strong troughing digs across the central CONUS and Great Lakes this weekend. Forecast Details: Primary concern will be another expected round of thunderstorms later this evening and early tonight. Current confidence is that storms will fire much further upstream across parts of the Midwest this afternoon and eventually work east into Michigan -- similar to last night. That said, expectation is that strongest storms and heaviest rainfall will track slightly further south than what was observed last night. Highest threat area for strong storms and associated heavy rainfall will be south of M-72, and specifically along and south of M-55. This corridor has the potential to see additional rainfall totals of 1"+ overnight. Rainfall amounts taper off from south to north, ranging from 0.25"-0.5" near M-72 to around 0.10" across the Tip of the Mitt. Locally higher amounts are possible with any stray storms that track across this area. Any additional rainfall tonight will only exacerbate ongoing flooding across northern Michigan -- the magnitude and widespread nature of which is particularly impressive for the area. Storms this evening will also carry the potential of producing severe weather. The most likely corridor of potential strong/severe storms will also be along/south of M-72 between 8 PM and 1 AM Wednesday. The primary concerns with any strong storms this evening on top of additional flooding will be damaging winds and large hail. Storm chances look to move out a few hours after midnight. After tonight, patchy dense fog will be possible Wednesday morning again along with isolated light rain chances through most of the day before much better rain/storm chances return again late Wednesday into Thursday. A break in rain chances is anticipated on Friday with aforementioned ridging before more showers and storms are expected again on Saturday. Unfortunately for those across impacted flood areas, additional rain chances will likely only prolong impacts over the next several days as water levels try to come down. Now for the exciting part -- after a stretch of mild temperatures in the 60s and 70s, snow chances make a triumphant return on Sunday as temperatures plunge back into the 20s and 30s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 132 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 General trends point towards bettering conditions (MVFR to high end IFR) across terminals this afternoon/evening ahead of an additional wave of showers and thunderstorms expected to pass through tonight generally after 00z. Conditions will deteriorate through the night with melting snow creating areas of BR and FG and showers dropping ceilings and visibilities as well. Thinking it will be similar to what we saw this morning. Wind gusts up to 15 knots will be possible through the period (higher within any stronger storms, especially TVC and MBL). && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Flood Watch through late Thursday night for MIZ016>018-020>036- 041-042-086>088-095-096-099. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DJC AVIATION...NSC  681 FXUS63 KLOT 142012 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 312 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Late spring to summer-like temperatures continue through Friday with highs in the 70s and 80s and lows in the 60s. - Significant all hazards severe weather threat this evening, particularly north of I-80. - Heavy rain and flash flooding threat from repeated rounds of thunderstorms tonight into Wednesday. - A brief break in the pattern is expected late Thursday into or through the day on Friday before another storm system arrives in the Friday evening to Saturday timeframe. - In the wake of the Saturday cold front, a brief, potentially sharp, shot of much cooler air could bring frost/freeze concerns into next Sunday and Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 312 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Through Wednesday night... The primary weather focus in the near continues to revolve around the continued threat for a significant severe weather event this evening. This includes the threat of tornadoes, instances of very large hail (2"+ diameter) and damaging winds in excess of 70 mph. The threat of flash flooding is also of increasing concern tonight into Wednesday, due to repeated rounds of very heavy rain producing storms. A recent surface analysis indicates that the stalled west-to- east oriented frontal boundary continues to reside north of the area this afternoon, generally from northeastern IA eastward across southern WI. Meanwhile, the outflow boundary from this mornings convective has largely washed out, with a notable airmass recovery across northeastern IL, noted by temperatures rebounding into the low 80s amidst surface dewpoints in the mid 60s. Interestingly, while this afternoon airmass recovery beneath a corridor of very steep mid-level lapse rates has resulted in moderate to strong MLCAPE values in excess of 3,000 j/kg, a notable capping EML inversion remains in place. This is apparent on the 18Z DVN RAOB, with a share EML inversion noted around 800 mb. While this cap is currently curtailing convective development, the sampled thermodynamic and kinematic environment is quiet volatile and will be supportive of significant severe weather as we head through the evening. While some isolated to widely scattered supercells capable of producing large hail will be possible this afternoon as a subtle impulse continues to slide eastward across central and eastern IL into northwestern IN, the primary severe thunderstorm threat continues to be this evening, particularly across northern IL and southern Wisconsin. Initial severe storm development is expected near the stalled frontal boundary in northeastern IA within the next hour or two. In fact, current satellite and radar imagery indicate several convective attempts already underway in this area. As development occurs, storm modes will initially favor supercells, though a eventual upscale growth is anticipated through the evening. Very steep mid-level lapse rates and long straight hodographs will favor instances of very large destructive hail with these initial supercells. However, strengthening low- level flow and the associated enlarging low- level hodographs into early this evening will will support a notable tornado threat for a few hours this evening (6-9 pm). This tornado threat is expected to be the highest across far northern IL into southern WI (generally along and north of I-88). Upscale growth into a severe wind producing MCS, with potential embedded QLCS tornadoes is then likely to occur through the evening as this activity progresses eastward through southern WI and far northern IL. Accordingly, the main severe threats look to transition to damaging wind gusts in excess of 70 mph and isolated tornadoes later this evening. Increasingly confidence has prompted the recent issuance of a tornado watch for most of northern IL through this evening. While the severe threat should largely wane by midnight tonight, the threat for training showers and thunderstorms may continue across parts of northern IL into the overnight hours. A veering low-level jet overnight may set up favorable conditions for training and backbuilding storms as the flow offsets the easterly movement. This adds concern for flash flooding, particularly given that this activity could train over the urban areas of Chicago. At this time we have opted to hold off on a flash flood watch, though as trends become more clear this evening one may be needed. We did highlight the threat for possible flooding concerns in a Hydro outlook (ESF), but again, messaging may need to be ramped up to a Watch this evening. Additional waves of showers and thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday. The amount of cloud cover and periods of rain does make it unclear as to the extent and coverage of severe storms due to questions of diurnal destabilization. Nevertheless, a level 1 to 2 out of 5 severe weather threat continues on Wednesday afternoon and evening. Regardless of the overall severe threat, flooding and flash flooding will continue to be of concern Wednesday into Wednesday night, owing to the repeated instances of very heavy rainfall. Accordingly, a future flood watch may be needed for the tonight through Wednesday time period. Thursday onward... A short period of drier weather is expected late Thursday into Friday morning following the eastward departure of the mid- level impulse ejecting out of the Desert Southwest. However, yet another storm system and associated cold front is favored to shift across the central CONUS Friday night into Saturday morning. Locally, another threat of strong to severe thunderstorms will exist in advance of cold front, which should move across our area sometime Saturday morning. In the wake of this cold front, a period of much cooler weather will move in across the area Sunday into Monday. The magnitude of this colder airmass may result in freezing overnight low temperatures and afternoon highs only in the low 50s for Sunday. KJB && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1233 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Key Aviation Messages for the current TAF period: - Chance for showers and storms this afternoon, with another wave of showers and storms expected this evening, potentially becoming severe - MVFR/IFR conditions possible with any stronger storms, particularly this evening/overnight - Gusty southwest winds expected for much of the TAF period, though erratic directions and stronger gusts possible with any thunderstorms Regional radar mosaic shows showers have developed in southeast Iowa/western Illinois moving northeastward. While the sun is currently filtering through the BKN VFR cloud deck, showers are expected to move in this afternoon with a chance for embedded thunderstorms. Maintained a PROB30 for thunder this afternoon given the uncertainty on when/if thunder develops, but will amend as needed depending on radar trends. There are better chances for showers and thunder around and after 00Z this evening, thus converting the PROB30 to a TEMPO for this second round. Strong and potentially severe storms are possible during this wave. MVFR cigs are possible with IFR vis possible with the heaviest downpours. There is still a signal for showers and embedded thunder to drop down out of Wisconsin during the overnight. However, confidence still remains on the lower side depending on what develops this evening. Opted to maintain the -SHRA VCTS mention with MVFR conditions through just before daybreak. The threat for thunder diminishes tomorrow morning, but chances for rain and showers remain through the day tomorrow. DK && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago  308 FXUS63 KSGF 142013 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 313 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe storms are expected this evening into the overnight. Very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes will all be possible. The highest risk is in far southwest Missouri/southeast Kansas and along/north of I-44. - Additional severe weather potential Wednesday afternoon and evening, and again Friday afternoon and overnight into Saturday. - Marginal excessive rainfall concerns through the week in areas that see repeated strong storms and/or training precipitation. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 256 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 It's breezy out there today as the trough pushes into our area and the surface pressure gradient remains tight. Southwest winds have been observed at 20-25 mph with gusts 30-35 mph. Temperatures have climbed into the upper 70s to low 80s despite a good amount of cloud cover. There are a few hours of warming left, so we're still on track to reach the predicted highs in the 80s today. The low encroaching on western Missouri has an attendant dryline that extends south and west across western Oklahoma and down into Texas. Convective initiation is expected along this dryline in the next couple of hours. Headed into the evening, these initial supercells are expected to line up as they move east-northeast across Kansas and Oklahoma on their way to us. The northeastern-most end of the line will reach us first, and may feature some development out ahead in west-central Missouri as early as 5-6 p.m. The main line looks to reach our area closer to 7-8 p.m., moving generally west-to-east with a northeast component. These supercells will look very scary as they move through Oklahoma, where they will be riding a moisture/instability gradient and tapping into all the moisture and warmth that has streamed into the region with the last several days of southerly flow. However, as they move eastward into our area and out of the better instability, they will become less organized/discrete. They are still very much expected to be severe, just not as severe as what may be seen in central Oklahoma, so keep this in mind when monitoring upstream. The stronger/more discrete cells in the line will be capable of very large hail up to 2-3", damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph, and tornadoes (particularly in our Kansas counties). With the line as a whole/line segments, hail up to quarters and damaging winds will be possible. Again, storms decrease in severity as they move east due to the loss of daytime heating and storms quickly gobbling up the favorable environment. The area with the highest risk for these hazards (SPC Slight risk, level 2/5) is roughly the northwestern half of the CWA, or a Cassville-Springfield- Lebanon-Vichy line. The severe risk will come to an end in the early morning hours, but there will be little break in the rainfall as a cold front impinging on the dryline from the west continues to force precipitation in eastern Oklahoma that tracks northeast into SWMO. Wednesday will be rainy and dreary the majority of the day. The dryline/cold front situation makes a final push Wednesday night, and should have just enough oomph from 1000-3000 J/Kg of MLCAPE, 30-50 kts of shear, steep lapse rates, moisture, and all a severe storm's favorite things to bring another round of severe convection in the afternoon and evening. All severe hazards will be possible with this activity as well, and the risk will end after midnight. With the multiple rounds of rain, one might wonder about the flash flood risk. While there is a marginal risk for excessive rainfall Tuesday and Wednesday, given that the expected storm total QPF forecast over the course of two days still remains lower than 1-hr flash flood guidance, it would take hours worth of training and/or strong cells to create a flash flood hazard. This risk is considered secondary to the hail/wind/tornado risk both days. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 256 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The cold front lifts to the north rather than moving through Wednesday night, keeping us in the southerly flow regime for the time being. Rain will gradually end from west to east Thursday morning, and we'll enjoy some sunshine in the afternoon with highs in the low 80s. The winds settle down as well, with no disturbances nearby for the first time in several days. Friday, a deep trough finally pushes a cold front through the area. This looks like a very classic severe setup, and we are included in an Enhanced equivalent (level 3/5) outlook from the SPC. Based on the expected environmental conditions, supercells capable of large hail and tornadoes are expected for our area, which grow upscale into a squall line as they progress toward the Mississippi valley. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1219 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Scattered to broken stratocumulus was moving across the region this afternoon with high end MVFR to VFR ceilings. With slowly increasing low level moisture continuing to filter into the region cloud cover is expected to continue. Ceilings are expected to lift to VFR, from 6 to 8 kft this evening. However, showers and thunderstorms will also be on the increase across the region this evening. Where showers or storms do occur, MVFR to locally IFR flight conditions will be possible. Surface winds will remain breezy and gusty with peak gusts from 25 to 35kts at times. Winds will remain southerly through the period. With increasing winds aloft, periods of low level wind shear will occur overnight into Wednesday morning as the boundary layer decouples from the surface flow. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Record High Temperatures: April 14: KVIH: 87/2006 KUNO: 86/2024 April 15: KUNO: 84/9999 April 17: KSGF: 87/1937 KVIH: 86/2004 KUNO: 87/2006 Record High Minimum Temperatures: April 14: KSGF: 67/2006 April 15: KSGF: 63/2006 April 16: KSGF: 66/1963 April 17: KSGF: 66/1976 && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Nelson LONG TERM...Nelson AVIATION...Hatch CLIMATE...Camden  202 FXUS63 KMKX 142013 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 313 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Significant severe weather event remains forecast this afternoon & evening (peak intensity 3-10 PM). All severe weather hazards, including very large hail greater than golf ball size and tornadoes, are possible. Seek immediate shelter if a warning is issued for your area later today. - Additional severe storms possible Wednesday afternoon if a front remains stalled across the area. If the front sets up south of the area, severe potential will greatly decrease but flash flooding will remain possible due to training convection. - Heavy rainfall could lead to additional periods of flooding this afternoon into Wednesday. Additional Flood Watches are possible especially tomorrow. - Additional windows for heavy rainfall, flooding, and severe thunderstorms Friday into Saturday. All severe hazards will be possible later Tuesday afternoon into the evening. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 309 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Tonight through Wednesday night: Storms have begun to fire this afternoon over central to NW Iowa. This corroborates a westward shift in initiation trends in recent runs of the HRRR model. Current runs of the WoFS support two main areas of storms this afternoon with a cluster of storms over central WI through Sauk, Columbia, Green Lake, and Marquette Counties that will then track east to the lakeshore and a cluster that will move through southwest Wisconsin and east to the lake. These storms are projected to be supercells when they enter our area but may cluster into a line with eastward extent An 18z sounding from Davenport supports a very unstable environment supportive of 4000 J/kg held by a cap at 800mb. With the cap eroding to our west, explosive supercell development is expected, leading to the corridors of storms in southern WI mentioned in the previous paragraph. All hazards will be possible during the supercell mode, as mid level lapse rates ~8 C/km and hodograph curvature will support large hail, and curvature in the low levels of the hodographs and 3CAPE >150J/kg will support 0-1 km SRH >200 m2/s2 and low level stretching for tornado formation. As we head into the evening, there may be some potential for these storms to become linear, leading to a damaging wind and QLCS tornado threat, especially as the LLJ increases near sunset and lengthens the low level hodographs. Todays severe weather hazards are expected to be high end and should not be taken lightly. Have multiple ways to receive warnings. Storms are largely expected to be out of the area after 10PM, and may push a surface boundary through our area. If this happens, storms tomorrow will be less severe though flash flooding will still be a threat. Runs of the CAMs depict a west to east oriented line of storms that may set up along the WI/IL border during the late afternoon into the evening, capable of heavy rain. The wind, hail, and tornado threat with the storms tomorrow will be far less than today. CMiller && .LONG TERM... Issued 245 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Thursday through Tuesday: A shortwave trough will track across southern WI Thursday morning. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected with this feature, especially in the morning with deeper moisture still in place over the region. The chance for showers and thunderstorms will linger into the afternoon. As the deeper moisture departs during this time and we heat up, the low level lapse rates will increase to allow for instability (up to 1000 j/kg) to develop. A lake breeze should push inland and help to trigger some of the showers/storms. Look for the precip chances to exit by sunset. High pressure will pass through Thursday night and lows will dip into the 40s wherever the lake breeze hit, so bisecting southern WI from east to west. Friday morning and early afternoon look quiet, but we will be getting primed for the next system to arrive Friday late afternoon and night. Low pressure tracking across the northern Plains on Friday, in response to a high-amplitude upper trough, will cross Lake Superior Friday night. A strong cold front will slide across WI from west to east late Friday night through Saturday morning. Showers are thunderstorms are expected within the warm sector Friday afternoon/evening and also along the cold front. Scattered showers are possible behind the front during the day Saturday. Strong cold air advection will follow, so low temps should dip down to around or below freezing Saturday night on brisk westerly winds. The models dry out the atmosphere quickly, but if there happens to be any lingering moisture, the precip type would chance to flurries/snow. Brisk westerly winds will persist through Sunday. Finally, high pressure will dominate and give us dry weather through Monday or Tuesday. The weather pattern has a large degree of uncertainty beyond Monday between the models. Cronce && .AVIATION... Issued 236 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Severe storms are expected this evening across all of southern Wisconsin. These storms will be capable of all severe weather hazards. The storms should track from west to east across the area between 21Z and 03Z tonight. Higher surface moisture has supported low VFR to high MVFR BKN to SCT conditions and those cigs should largely continue into tonight. Ambient, background flow should be southerly to southwesterly with breezes from 15 to 20 knots. After storms move through tonight, winds should briefly become light and variable for a time before southerly winds return. Fog may also form over south central WI. CMiller && .MARINE... Issued 245 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A stationary front will remain parked over the middle third of the lake into tomorrow, slowly sinking south to the southern end of the lake by Thursday morning. Winds will remain southerly south of the front and modestly breezy, while winds north of the front will remain light and variable to northerly during this time. Today, severe storms are expected over the southern half to southern two thirds of the lake. Hail and gusty winds will be possible and waterspouts may occur with any tornadic storms from land that move over the waters. This will be most likely near the shoreline of Wisconsin and Illinois. The front will clear the lake as a cold front Friday, before low pressure of 29.6 inches approaches from the west. CMiller && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...Dense Fog Advisory...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565- LMZ567-LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872 until 7 AM Wednesday. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee  787 FXUS63 KJKL 142015 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 415 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures should average 15 or more degrees above normal through the end of the week. Record or near record high temperatures are forecast Wednesday, Friday, and Saturday. - A passing disturbance could result in isolated showers or a stray storm through early this evening across northern and eastern portions of the area. - Additional showers/storms are forecast Thursday and Thursday night with a passing disturbance, with potentially greater chances this weekend with a cold front. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 410 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2026 As of mid afternoon, an upper level ridge was centered in the eastern Gulf and extended into the Southeast as well as into portions of the Atlantic. Meanwhile, southwest to west southwest flow aloft was in place across the OH Valley with a couple of disturbances passing within this flow. This southwest to west southwest flow was occurring between the ridging to the east and southeast of the Commonwealth and an upper trough entering portions of the Northern Plains to Central Rockies to Four Corners regions. At the surface, a frontal zone extends from New England to the Great Lakes to the Central Plains to CO. Meanwhile a sfc ridge of high pressure was centered in the Atlantic into the Southeast and north into the Southern Appalachians. A few showers were exiting Pike County and into WV and VA at this time associated with a disturbance in southwest flow. Some convective allowing models have had some redevelopment through early this evening in the north and east, though recent HRRR runs have backed off on that idea. At this point, opted to maintain slight chance pops roughly east of an Irvine to Hazard to Whitesburg line for the next few hours. Chances for any convection wane with the loss of daytime heating as mid level heights rise for late evening into a part of the overnight with neutral height tendencies to end the night. The sfc high will also remain in place tonight. As the night progresses and into the day on Wednesday, the upper ridge will remain from the Gulf into the Southeast to the coast of the Carolinas and VA while the mid and upper trough progresses into the Plains and Central Conus. This will leave eastern KY in the warm sector south of the frontal zone from the Northeast to the Great Lakes into the Central Conus with multiple waves moving along it. This mid and upper trough will continue to approach the region on Wednesday night as the axis of the mid and upper ridge shifts east. At the same time, sfc high pressure also remains in place into the Southeast and the Southern Appalachians. Clearing skies should occur during the evening into tonight, especially in regard to low and mid level clouds. This is favored by the pattern and 12Z HREF ensemble means. This should set the stage for a moderate ridge/valley split as sfc and upper ridging dominates. With afternoon dewpoints mainly in the mid to upper 50s, fog development appears more probable in the valleys than recent nights, especially if the forecast low to mid 50s low temperatures materialize. Any fog should lift and dissipate within a couple of hours after sunrise on Wednesday and give way to a milder day compared to today. The airmass should also be drier overall and min rh should trend down. Currently, forecast max temperatures of 86 at JKL and 85 at LOZ would tie records for the date. Another moderate magnitude ridge/valley temperature split follows for Wednesday night with sfc high pressure centered in the Atlantic, but extending into the Southeast and Southern Appalachians dominating. Low should again be in the low to mid 50s for valleys and low to mid mid 60s for ridges. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 249 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2026 The long term period opens Thursday with a shortwave over the Mid- Mississippi Valley and Upper Great Lakes. As this system lifts northeast throughout Thursday shower and thunderstorm chances increase heading into the late afternoon and early evening. Southwesterly winds and warm air advection allow for temperatures to warm into the 80s through the afternoon, some 10-15 degrees above normal. As showers taper off heading into Friday morning, temperatures cool into the low to mid 50s in valleys, and low 60s along ridge tops. A ridge of high pressure briefly builds over the area ahead of a deepening trough over the Rockies and Northern Plains. Relatively quiet weather is expected, with a mix of sun and clouds, and temperatures warming into the 80s. Because of the approaching system, clouds begin to increase overnight and through Saturday. Low temperatures Friday night cool into the 50s and low 60s. Saturday, the upper level trough will be over the Upper Great Lakes, with a warm front extending through the Great Lakes into the Mid- Atlantic, while a trailing cold front will extend through the Upper MidWest, the Mid and Lower Mississippi valleys, with showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of it. Shower and storm chances will increase over Eastern Kentucky from northwest to southeast through the afternoon into the evening and overnight hours. Showers and storms are then expected to taper off from northwest to southeast through Sunday. Temperatures Saturday, ahead of the cold front, will warm into mid to upper 80s for most, under southwesterly winds. At night, with winds becoming west to northwesterly, cold air advecting in behind the cold front will cool temperatures into the mid to upper 40s. Sunday, as remaining showers taper off, the cold front is modeled southeast of the area. Temperatures will be much cooler across the area, some 20-25 degrees cooler in fact, ranging in the low to mid 60s. Clouds should diminish through the afternoon as the trough begins to depart the area. However, Eastern Kentucky looks to be on the backside of the trough heading into Sunday night. With cold air still advecting in under light northwesterly winds and clearing skies, temperatures are expected to drop into the mid to upper 30s in the valleys and lower 40s elsewhere. High rises look to occur Monday, leading to mostly sunny skies, and highs in the low to mid 60s. Temperatures remain depressed under northwesterly winds. At night, temperatures cool into the upper 30s to near 40. Tuesday, a shortwave looks to skirt through the Upper Great Lakes and its main effects should remain north of the area. conditions will feature a mix of sun and clouds under southerly winds and seasonable temperatures warming into the low 70s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2026 VFR conditions prevailed at TAF issuance and should prevail through the period. The region will remain in the warm sector between a sfc ridge of high pressure extending from the Southeast to the western Atlantic and a frontal zone from New England across the Great Lakes and into the Plains. Meanwhile, upper level ridging should remain from the eastern Gulf into the southeast and parts of the Atlantic while the axis of an upper trough moves into the Central Conus. A passing disturbance could bring a shower or stray storm with brief sub VFR conditions during the first few hours of the period to KSYM, KIOB, KJKL, and KSJS. Otherwise, in between the sfc systems, south to southwest winds should average between 5 and 15KT with some gusts to around 20KT for the first few hours of the period. Low and mid level clouds are expected to decrease this evening while winds should also diminish around 00Z with the loss of daytime heating. South to southwest winds should pick up again into the 5 to 12KT range from around 14Z to the end of the period as the nocturnal inversion mixes out. A few gusts to around 20KT are also possible. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...GINNICK AVIATION...JP  604 FXHW60 PHFO 142016 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 1016 AM HST Tue Apr 14 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Light to moderate rain continues over the western portion of the state. Periods of showery, somewhat unstable conditions are expected to persist through much of the week. Light and variable winds may also promote localized land and sea breeze development. By the latter half of the week, a return to light east to southeast winds will bring generally quieter weather, however, shower activity could increase by the weekend as an upper-level trough approaches from the northwest. && .SHORT TERM UPDATE... Issued at 1010 AM HST Tue Apr 14 2026 This morning's REFS model continues to show an increase of showers over Kauai today especially during the afternoon and evening. While rain is expected to increase, rainfall rates will likely remain modest due to the lack of atmospheric dynamics. Even with the lack of dynamics, a few inches of rain will be possible over the next 24 hours for Kauai. Elsewhere across the state, sea breezes will develop by mid day today and we should see clouds and showers develop over interior areas this afternoon. With precipitable water values higher than normal, some brief downpours are expected at times this afternoon and evening. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 341 AM HST Tue Apr 14 2026 The main shower band has drifted eastward from the previous forecast and is now located over Maui County and the Alenuihaha Channel. Rainfall rates from these showers have been producing below a tenth of an inch per hour. The subtropical jet, currently located just north of the Hawaiian Islands and drifting southward, will help steer these intermittent shower bands over the region for the next several days. Cloud coverage will also be maintained through much of the week, ensuring dewpoints remain high in the upper-60s, leading to noticeably humid conditions. With the lighter surface winds in the forecast, initially from the southeast before becoming variable, any diurnal heating will be enough to trigger land and sea breeze activity. This may bring leeward and interior showers throughout the day, and partial clearing overnight for most of the islands. Otherwise, these weak, intermittent shower bands will persist as they ride the subtropical jet following the southwesterly flow aloft. Toward the latter half of the week, the surface low pressure system, once anchored just north of the islands, will finally dislodge and move northeastward opening the doors for high pressure to quickly build in its place. Light trades attempt to develop in response, however, latest model guidance depicts an upper-level trough digging down into the vicinity of the state from the northwest. While not overly impressive, nor super impactful currently, it is expected to limit the strength of the trades. That being said, it is worth keeping an eye on the evolution of the upper-level trough to determine if it enhances the ongoing shower activity (especially with the lingering moisture-laden airmass across the state), or if it is simply passing through. .AVIATION... Issued at 341 AM HST Tue Apr 14 2026 Low cigs and isol SHRA will continue across the islands. MVFR conds possible but VFR should prevail. Winds will generally be driven by land-sea breezes. The forecast generally trends back toward trades tomorrow into Thursday. No AIRMETs in effect. && .MARINE... Issued at 341 AM HST Tue Apr 14 2026 A weak surface trough will reside just west of the state through Thursday. This will allow for gentle southeast flow across the waters and locally moderate easterly flow in the typical windy channels surrounding Maui and the Big Island. Surface high pressure building far north of the region will help tighten the pressure gradient and bring moderate to locally fresh easterly trades across the Hawaiian coastal waters Friday into this weekend. A small, short-period, northwest swell will continue to slowly diminish through the rest of the week and into the weekend. A small, medium-period, south swell has arrived at the near shore buoys and should provide a boost to surf along south facing shores through late week before gradually subsiding into the weekend. Surf along east facing shores will remain below seasonal average with lighter than average trade winds near and upstream of the islands forecast through late this week. A slight bump up in surf may occur Friday into this weekend with the increase of easterly flow. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Kino DISCUSSION...Pierce AVIATION...Walsh MARINE...Thomas  645 FXUS63 KLOT 142024 CCA AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 312 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Late spring to summer-like temperatures continue through Friday with highs in the 70s and 80s and lows in the 60s. - Significant all hazards severe weather threat this evening, particularly north of I-80. - Heavy rain and flash flooding threat from repeated rounds of thunderstorms tonight into Wednesday. - A brief break in the pattern is expected late Thursday into or through the day on Friday before another storm system arrives in the Friday evening to Saturday timeframe. - In the wake of the Saturday cold front, a brief, potentially sharp, shot of much cooler air could bring frost/freeze concerns into next Sunday and Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 312 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Through Wednesday night... The primary weather focus in the near term continues to revolve around the continued threat for a significant severe weather event this evening. This includes the threat of tornadoes, instances of very large hail (2"+ diameter) and damaging winds in excess of 70 mph. The threat of flash flooding is also of increasing concern tonight into Wednesday, due to repeated rounds of very heavy rain producing storms. A recent surface analysis indicates that the stalled west-to- east oriented frontal boundary continues to reside north of the area this afternoon, generally from northeastern IA eastward across southern WI. Meanwhile, the outflow boundary from this mornings convection has largely washed out, with a notable airmass recovery across northeastern IL, noted by temperatures rebounding into the low 80s amidst surface dewpoints in the mid 60s. Interestingly, while this afternoon's airmass recovery beneath a corridor of very steep mid-level lapse rates has resulted in moderate to strong MLCAPE values in excess of 3,000 j/kg, a notable capping EML inversion remains in place. This is apparent on the 18Z DVN RAOB, with a sharp EML inversion noted around 800 mb. While this cap is currently curtailing convective development, the sampled thermodynamic and kinematic environment is quite volatile and will be supportive of significant severe weather as we head through the evening. While some isolated to widely scattered supercells capable of producing large hail will be possible this afternoon as a subtle impulse continues to slide eastward across central and eastern IL into northwestern IN, the primary severe thunderstorm threat continues to be this evening, particularly across northern IL and southern Wisconsin. Initial severe storm development is expected near the stalled frontal boundary in northeastern IA within the next hour or two. In fact, current satellite and radar imagery indicate several convective attempts already underway in this area. As development occurs, storm modes will initially favor supercells, though a eventual upscale growth is anticipated through the evening. Very steep mid-level lapse rates and long straight hodographs will favor instances of very large destructive hail with these initial supercells. However, strengthening low- level flow and the associated enlarging low- level hodographs into early this evening will will support a notable tornado threat for a few hours this evening (6-9 pm). This tornado threat is expected to be the highest across far northern IL into southern WI (generally along and north of I-88). Upscale growth into a severe wind producing MCS, with potential embedded QLCS tornadoes is then likely to occur through the evening as this activity progresses eastward through southern WI and far northern IL. Accordingly, the main severe threats look to transition to damaging wind gusts in excess of 70 mph and isolated tornadoes later this evening. Increasingly confidence has prompted the recent issuance of a tornado watch for most of northern IL through this evening. While the severe threat should largely wane by midnight tonight, the threat for training showers and thunderstorms may continue across parts of northern IL into the overnight hours. A veering low-level jet overnight may set up favorable conditions for training and backbuilding storms as the flow offsets the easterly movement. This adds concern for flash flooding, particularly given that this activity could train over the urban areas of Chicago. At this time we have opted to hold off on a flash flood watch, though as trends become more clear this evening one may be needed. We did highlight the threat for possible flooding concerns in a Hydro outlook (ESF), but again, messaging may need to be ramped up to a Watch this evening. Additional waves of showers and thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday. The amount of cloud cover and periods of rain does make it unclear as to the extent and coverage of severe storms due to questions of diurnal destabilization. Nevertheless, a level 1 to 2 out of 5 severe weather threat continues on Wednesday afternoon and evening. Regardless of the overall severe threat, flooding and flash flooding will continue to be of concern Wednesday into Wednesday night, owing to the repeated instances of very heavy rainfall. Accordingly, a future flood watch may be needed for the tonight through Wednesday time period. Thursday onward... A short period of drier weather is expected late Thursday into Friday morning following the eastward departure of the mid- level impulse ejecting out of the Desert Southwest. However, yet another storm system and associated cold front is favored to shift across the central CONUS Friday night into Saturday morning. Locally, another threat of strong to severe thunderstorms will exist in advance of cold front, which should move across our area sometime Saturday morning. In the wake of this cold front, a period of much cooler weather will move in across the area Sunday into Monday. The magnitude of this colder airmass may result in freezing overnight low temperatures and afternoon highs only in the low 50s for Sunday. KJB && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1233 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Key Aviation Messages for the current TAF period: - Chance for showers and storms this afternoon, with another wave of showers and storms expected this evening, potentially becoming severe - MVFR/IFR conditions possible with any stronger storms, particularly this evening/overnight - Gusty southwest winds expected for much of the TAF period, though erratic directions and stronger gusts possible with any thunderstorms Regional radar mosaic shows showers have developed in southeast Iowa/western Illinois moving northeastward. While the sun is currently filtering through the BKN VFR cloud deck, showers are expected to move in this afternoon with a chance for embedded thunderstorms. Maintained a PROB30 for thunder this afternoon given the uncertainty on when/if thunder develops, but will amend as needed depending on radar trends. There are better chances for showers and thunder around and after 00Z this evening, thus converting the PROB30 to a TEMPO for this second round. Strong and potentially severe storms are possible during this wave. MVFR cigs are possible with IFR vis possible with the heaviest downpours. There is still a signal for showers and embedded thunder to drop down out of Wisconsin during the overnight. However, confidence still remains on the lower side depending on what develops this evening. Opted to maintain the -SHRA VCTS mention with MVFR conditions through just before daybreak. The threat for thunder diminishes tomorrow morning, but chances for rain and showers remain through the day tomorrow. DK && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago  881 FXUS65 KBOU 142027 AAC AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 227 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Numerous rain showers with snow showers above 7000-8000 feet MSL will continue through this evening. Rain showers linger overnight across the northeast plains. - Locally critical fire weather conditions over the plains Thursday afternoon. - Next system moves in Friday with much colder temperatures and snow for most locations. - Hard freeze likely Friday night and into Saturday morning with lows in the upper teens to mid 20s. && .DISCUSSION /Through Tuesday/... Issued at 227 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Water vapor satellite imagery shows the upper level trough tracking east across Utah. The trough will continue tracking eastward through tonight. Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue ahead of the trough. Rain and snow showers will taper off this evening over the higher terrain and along the Front Range as the trough shifts over northeast Colorado. The snow level will be between 7,000 and 8,000 feet MSL. An additional 2 to 6 inches of snow is expected in the mountains. The rain showers will linger through the night over the northeast plains. Locally, up to half an inch of rainfall is possible over the northeast plains under the deformation zone. Cool northwest flow aloft will prevail Wednesday behind the exiting trough. High temperatures will reach the mid 60s to lower 70s across northeast Colorado. Flow aloft backs to the southwest Thursday ahead of the next storm system. This will bring warmer temperatures and continued dry conditions. South to southwest winds will increase as flow aloft increases and a surface low forms over Wyoming/northeast Colorado. The strongest winds, with gusts up to 40 mph, are expected over the mountains.  Over the plains, the stronger winds will be found south of I-70. An upper level trough will track across the Central Rockies on Friday. Models are in good agreement that this trough will bring widespread light precipitation (less than half an inch) and cold temperatures. There are slight differences between the models regarding strength and timing, which could nudge amounts up or down. Precipitation may begin as rain across the plains, but the airmass quickly cools with snow expected Friday afternoon. Temperatures at 700mb fall to -8 to -12C, which is plenty cold enough for snow. As previously discussed, precipitation amounts are generally expected to be light with snowfall amounts less than 3 inches across the plains. In addition to the needed precipitation, this system will be very cold. Overnight lows are expected to fall into the lower to mid 20s. Low lying areas will likely see colder temperatures, with readings in the 15 to 20 degree range. Saturday morning temperatures will be the coldest since mid March. Above-ground irrigation lines may be damaged Friday night and Saturday morning due to the hard freeze. It's best (safest) to disconnect hoses and drain above ground irrigation lines ahead of time. The upper level trough shifts east of the region by Saturday morning, leaving a dry northwest flow aloft in its wake. After Saturday morning's cold start, temperatures climbed into the 50s across northeast Colorado. A little below average for this time of year.  Sunday through Tuesday, upper level ridging builds over the Central Rockies for Sunday and possibly into Monday. Once the ridge shifts east of the region late Monday or Tuesday, southwest flow aloft will prevail. All three days are expected to be warm and dry. Sunday will be the coolest with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Slow warming continues early next week and by Tuesday highs over northeast Colorado are expected to reach the upper 70s to lower 80s. Windy conditions are not expected under this pattern, but if they occur, they would raise fire weather concerns. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday/... Issued at 1210 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Virga showers have been passing over/near all three TAF sites this morning. The chance for virga showers continues through this afternoon. These showers could cause gusty winds at all three sites- gusts could reach 20 to 25 kts with any of these outflows, mainly favoring a southerly component. As the afternoon progress, the lower atmosphere will start to moisten up as noted in model soundings leading to a chance for showers/precipitation reaching the ground. Have added in TEMPO and PROB30 groups from around 21z to 06z tonight to account for this possibility. There is a low chance (approximately 10%) for a thunderstorm, but CAPE values are expected to be low. Gusty winds between 20 and 30 kts will remain possible this afternoon. These shower chances will also bring the potential for lowering ceilings to near 6000 feet AGL, especially this evening. Overnight, winds will become VRB before eventually become W to NW by tomorrow morning. A drainage component is possible, especially at KAPA. Cloud ceilings will rise as the night progresses with no ceiling issues expected after around 08z. Winds by tomorrow afternoon should be between 10 to 15 kts starting around 18z. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ247. && $$ DISCUSSION...12 AVIATION...MV  866 FXPQ50 PGUM 142028 AFDGUM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tiyan GU 628 AM ChST Wed Apr 15 2026 .Marianas Update... Typhoon Sinlaku is moving slowly and at times it has become nearly stationary. This is continuing devastating winds of 115 mph or greater over Tinian and Saipan. While heavy rain bands continue across Guam and Rota, bringing strong gusts to around 70 mph (see tropical systems section below). Due to the slow motion and large size of Sinlaku, the Flood Watch was extended through tonight. For Guam and Rota, westerly winds are driving the highest surf and inundation along west facing reefs and wrapping around to north and south facing reefs, while relaxing somewhat along east facing reefs. For Tinian and Saipan, winds have shifted to the southeast and south as the center is now west-northwest of the islands. This is placing the highest surf along east, south and west facing reefs, but at Sinlaku move away to the northwest, the northwest swell will increasing, rebuilding surf along north facing reefs across the islands. Coastal Flood Warning continues through Thursday morning, with High Surf Warning through Thursday afternoon. && Tropical Systems Update... As of 5AM ChST position and 1 AM ChST forecast from JTWC, Typhoon Sinlaku had max winds of 145 mph and was about 20 miles northwest of Tinian, 25 miles west-northwest of Saipan, 70 miles north of Rota, and 125 miles north-northeast of Guam. The forward motion was northwest at 5 mph overnight, but recent satellite imagery suggest forward speed has decreased again and Sinlaku was nearly stationary early this morning. This is keeping Saipan and Tinian near the eastern eyewall where devastating winds of 115 mph or greater are occurring, and potentially peaking at 145 mph. Rota and Guam are still well within the tropical storm force winds, with observations on Guam reporting winds around 46 mph with gusts of 71 mph, especially as heavy rain bands continue to move over the islands. It will take a long time for decrease in the winds across Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan due Sinlaku's slow motion and large size as tropical storm winds extend up to 265 miles from the center. Winds will be increasing at Alamagan, Pagan, and Agrihan as Sinlaku moves northwest, then northerly and passes to the west of the northern islands, bringing strong tropical storm and potentially low-end category 1 to 2 typhoon winds toward the end of the week. For more information, please refer to bulletins from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) under WMO header WTPN31 PGTW and from the National Weather Service under WMO header WTPQ31 PGUM and WTPQ81 PGUM. && .Eastern Micronesia Update... Satellite imagery this morning shows a broadly unsettled pattern across much of the Marshall Islands with numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms, while relatively quiet conditions near Pohnpei and Kosrae. The convection by the Marshall Islands looks to be along convergent flow that is along the trade winds around the Marshall Islands and the southwest flow south of Typhoon Sinlaku that still just pushing into Pohnpei. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen south of Pohnpei and Kosrae, near the Equator, within the surface trough extending southwest from STY Sinlaku, passing near Chuuk and south of Pohnpei and Kosrae. The broad area of convergence will gradually shift northward with the movement of Sinlaku and fragmenting through rest of the week, maintaining scattered to numerous showers for the RMI, including Majuro, over the next few days, while relatively drier conditions persist for Kosrae and Pohnpei. Latest altimetry data shows 6 to 8 foot seas across much of the region. Elevated west to northwest swell will maintain elevated, potentially near hazardous surf along west and north facing reefs of Pohnpei through at least the next day or two. && .Western Micronesia Update... Satellite imagery shows partly to mostly cloudy skies across Palau, Yap, and Chuuk with showers still patchy as drier air is being pulled int the region south of Typhoon Sinlaku as it continues to move northwest just west of Tinian and Saipan. For Chuuk, northwest to southwest swell are keeping surf and seas elevated but so far model guidance and altimetry data suggest seas and surf below hazardous thresholds, and guidance supports a slow decrease in seas and surf as Sinlaku continues away and gradually weakens over the next few days. For Yap and Palau, marine and surf conditions will be the main concern this week. Large northeast swell from distant Typhoon Sinlaku continues to produce hazardous seas within Yap coastal waters and could peak around 11 to 13 feet before slowly tapering off on Thursday. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for Yap through Thursday afternoon. This long-period swell is also expected to bring hazardous surf along north and east facing reefs facing reefs of Yap, reaching to around 9 to 13 ft. Hazardous surf, combined with the higher high tides with the new moon cycle, there may be a concern for some minor coastal inundation along northern and eastern shorelines at times of high tide over the next few days. Hazardous surf has also developed at Palau along north and east facing reefs with surf around 9 to 13 feet. Similar to Yap, minor coastal inundation along northern and eastern reefs could also be an issue during high tide. && .Prev discussion... /issued 752 PM ChST Tue Apr 14 2026/ Marianas Synopsis... Super Typhoon Sinlaku is seen just south-southeast of Tinian and Saipan this evening. Tropical storm force winds continue across Rota and Guam, with typhoon force winds occurring at Tinian and Saipan. Sinlaku continues to slowly move toward Tinian and Saipan. Numerous to widespread locally heavy showers are seen across the Marianas, with isolated thunderstorms near the eye wall. Discussion... Not much has changed from the previous forecast. Super Typhoon Sinlaku continues to track toward Tinian and Saipan. Tropical storm force winds remain from south of Guam to the northern CNMI, with typhoon force winds over Tinian and Saipan. Winds will continue to increase at both Tinian and Saipan, reaching as high as 150 mph with gusts over 180 mph. Therefore, an Extreme Wind Warning was issued for both islands. This warning will be updated through the night until winds look to fall below 115 mph sustained. After eye passage at Tinian and Saipan, winds will gradually subside, but look to remain at or above tropical storm force through Thursday afternoon. For Guam and Rota, winds are peaking or have just peaked and will be slowly subsiding at both locations later tonight, though tropical storm force winds look to continue at Guam Wednesday evening and at Rota until after midnight Wednesday. After STY Sinlaku moves out of the Marianas, a dry pattern will move into the region and persist for several days after. Marine... Marine conditions remain dangerous across the Marianas. Seas have peaked over Guam and Rota waters and are expected to slowly subside over the next few days. Seas peaked in Guam at 26 feet, as shown by Ipan buoy in the early morning hours, while remaining around 25 to 30 feet in Rota waters. For Tinian and Saipan, seas continue to increase, with Tanapag buoy showing seas of around 26 feet, while altimetry shows over 35 feet to the east of the eye of Sinlaku. Seas look to peak for Tinian and Saipan at around 40 feet tonight, beginning to subside after Sinlaku moves farther north, away from the islands. Small craft advisory level seas to hazardous seas look to continue into the weekend, possibly falling below 10 feet for Guam and Rota early in the weekend and for Tinian and Saipan late in the weekend. Hydrology... The Ensemble Tropical Rainfall Potential (ETRaP) estimates from microwave satellite data shows that 12 to 20 additional inches of rainfall are possible near the center. With the past few forecasts supporting passage near or over Tinian and Saipan, these islands will have the greatest potential for that rainfall. Guam could still see a storm total of 6 to 12 inches, with Rota potentially reaching 10 to 20 inches. Flash Flooding is possible so a Flood Warning was issued for all 4 islands. Tropical Systems... As of the 700 PM ChST PGUA radar fix, Super Typhoon Sinlaku was centered near 14.7N 145.9E, or about 25 miles southeast of Tinian airport, 30 miles south-southeast of Saipan airport, and 115 miles northeast of Guam. The latest 6-hourly track shows a steady west- northwest motion of around 5 mph at 300 degrees, with the eye looking to move directly over or just south of Tinian. However, Sinlaku looks to be stalling just southeast of Tinian, remaining nearly stationary over the last hour or two. Radar reflectivity depicts the appearance of concentric eyewalls, with the primary eyewall around 10 to 15 miles across and the secondary eyewall around 50 miles across. Bands of high reflectivity and heavy showers within the outermost eyewall are rotating over Saipan and Tinian this evening as the center of Sinlaku stalls to the southeast, moving west to southwest across the islands. Saipan has begun to see sustained typhoon force winds of 78 mph gusting to 113 mph, while Guam is experiencing sustained winds around 50 mph gusting to 76 mph this evening. As Sinlaku nears Tinian and Saipan, winds will continue to increase, with very dangerous, rapidly worsening conditions tonight as the eyewall begins to move overhead, and sustained Category 4 typhoon force winds develop, with 130 to 150 mph winds gusting to 175 mph. Outside of the eyewall, the highest reflectivities and heaviest showers are presently seen in the outer rain bands between Guam and Rota, west and south of Guam, and just north to northeast of Rota within the secondary eyewall. The latest forecast track from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) maintains a north-northwest passage of Sinlaku over or near Tinian and Saipan late tonight with an increase in forward speed, but potentially passing directly over or south of Tinian if the current track observed on radar holds. Sinlaku's track looks to shift more northward after it crosses Tinian and Saipan, moving through the northern CNMI just west of Alamagan, Pagan, and Agrihan on Wednesday through Thursday night, before making a northeast turn away by the end of the week. Super Typhoon Sinlaku is on a gradual weakening trend through the next few days, but is expected to maintain Category 4 strength as it crosses the Marianas tonight. Eastern Micronesia... Satellite imagery late this afternoon shows a broadly unsettled pattern across much of the Marshall Islands and relatively quiet conditions near Pohnpei and Kosrae. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen over much of the RMI including Majuro and Kwajalein Atolls, extending further northwest, passing west of Wake Island, within the broad, trailing convergence into Super Typhoon Sinlaku, far west-northwest of the region. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen south of Pohnpei and Kosrae, within the surface trough extending southwest from STY Sinlaku, passing near Chuuk and south of Pohnpei and Kosrae. The broad area of convergence will gradually shift northward with the movement of Sinlaku and fragment through rest of the week, maintaining scattered to numerous showers for the RMI, including Majuro, over the next few days, while relatively drier conditions persist for Kosrae and Pohnpei. Latest altimetry data shows 6 to 8 foot seas across much of the region. Elevated west to northwest swell will maintain elevated, potentially hazardous surf along west- facing reefs of Pohnpei through at least the next day or two. Western Micronesia... Satellite imagery shows partly to mostly cloudy skies and patchy showers across the region as Super Typhoon (STY) Sinlaku continues to move across the Marianas, further distancing itself from the region. The Small Craft Advisory, High Surf Advisory, and the Coastal Flood Statement was allowed to expire for Chuuk as conditions are expected to gradually improve as Sinlaku moves further away. For Yap and Palau, marine and surf conditions will be the main concern this week. Large northeast swell from distant Super Typhoon Sinlaku continues to produce hazardous seas within Yap coastal waters and could peak around 11 to 13 feet before slowly tapering off on Thursday. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for Yap through Thursday afternoon. This long-period swell is also expected to bring hazardous surf along north facing reefs of Yap, possibly reaching hazardous levels of 12 feet for east-facing reefs. Hazardous surf, combined with the higher high tides with the new moon cycle, there may be a concern for some minor coastal inundation along northern and eastern shorelines at times of high tide over the next few days. Hazardous surf is also expected at Palau, likely reaching hazardous levels of at least 9 feet along north facing reefs and 12 feet along east facing reefs overnight. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...Coastal Flood Warning until 5 AM ChST Thursday for GUZ001. Flood Watch through late tonight for GUZ001. High Surf Warning until 6 PM ChST Thursday for GUZ001. Tropical Storm Warning for GUZ001. Typhoon Watch for GUZ001. MP...Coastal Flood Warning until 5 AM ChST Thursday for MPZ001>003. Flood Watch through late tonight for MPZ001>003. High Surf Warning until 6 PM ChST Thursday for MPZ001>003. Typhoon Warning for MPZ001>003. Marianas Waters...Tropical Storm Warning for PMZ151. Typhoon Watch for PMZ151. Typhoon Warning for PMZ152>154. && $$ Marianas: Kleeschulte East Micronesia/Tropical: DeCou/Schank West Micronesia: Cruz/Schank IDSS: Mesa  964 FXUS66 KMTR 142029 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 129 PM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 124 PM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Near normal temperatures continue through Thursday before temperatures warm heading into the weekend - Periods of gusty offshore winds, especially at higher elevations, Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning - Increasing confidence for widespread beneficial rain Sunday into the beginning of next week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 124 PM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 (This evening through Wednesday) Low level stratus is breaking up across the Bay Area with sunny skies to continue into the afternoon/evening. Another round of stratus is expected tonight along the coast and portions of the SF Bay Shoreline. Locally patchy fog remains possible tonight across the interior valleys, particularly across the North Bay Valleys and southern Salinas Valley. The upper level pattern remains fairly stable in the short term as a deep upper level trough moves into the PNW and more meridional flow (becoming slightly troughy on Wednesday) prevails over California. This will result in Tuesday looking fairly similar to Monday with coastal highs in the 50s to 60s, interior highs in the 60s, and portions of the interior Central Coast in the low 70s. Morning low temperatures will be in the 40s to low 50s with portions of the interior Central Coast and the elevated terrain dropping into the upper 30s. Diurnally breezy onshore winds continue through Wednesday with gusts to around 20 to 30 mph across favored gaps/passes and along the coast in the afternoon/evening. There is some potential for coastal drizzle on Wednesday but if any does occur no accumulation is expected. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 124 PM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 (Wednesday night through next Monday) There is a slight pattern change Wednesday night into Thursday as a high amplitude ridge moves into the West Coast. This will bring gusty offshore (northerly) winds across the region with gusts between 30-40 mph across the highest peaks. Winds will be strongest across the North Bay Interior Mountains and the interior East Bay. Fire concerns remain minimal thanks to the recent wetting rains across the region last weekend. Winds shift onshore again by Saturday and continue through the remainder of the Long Term Forecast. High temperatures will see a gradual warming trend Thursday into the weekend with highs building back into the mid to upper 70s across the interior and 60s along the coastline. By Sunday, the upper level ridge will have progressed eastward and another deep upper level trough will move into the West Coast. This low is coming from the Gulf of Alaska and will bring us our next round of rain. The highest rain totals look to be in the coastal mountain ranges with lower amounts expected across the rest of the Bay Area and Central Coast. Temperatures will cool Sunday and Monday with interior highs in the 60s to low 70s on Sunday dropping into the low to mid 60s on Monday. Coastal high temperatures will remain in the 50s to 60s. Gusty onshore winds are possible Sunday into Monday as this next system arrives but it does not meet Wind Advisory Criteria. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1144 AM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Low level lift and ample moisture led to a strato-cu kinda day. Onshore flow and persistent cloud feed from the Pacific will keep a mix of MVFR (2000-3000 FT CIGS) to VFR through the 19-20Z time period. It will take some time, but do expect mostly VFR this afternoon with a few lingering CU. Tonight will be lower conf given lingering low moisture increasing high level clouds. For STS/APC did not include dense fog like this AM....thinking increasing high clouds will limit radiational cooling (10-20% chc). For the Wed AM rush do have some MVFR CIGS returning 1500-2500 FT. Winds are forecast to increase throughout the day into the evening before tapering down through the night. HAF is an exception as it will maintain moderate winds with some embedded gusts through the TAF period due to its close proximity to the coastline. Vicinity of SFO...Strato-cu is slow to mix out. Trending later in the 19-20Z block for the Bay. Do expect an uptick with onshore winds this afternoon with better clearing. Gusts 20-25 kt. SFO Bridge Approach...Solid deck of strato-cu. May clear a little later than SFO terminal. Monterey Bay Terminals...Gradual thinning of strato-cu with similar clearing in the 19-20Z. Onshore flow will bring some MVFR cigs back again tonight. && .MARINE... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 1059 AM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 High pressure off the California coast will maintain moderate to fresh northerly breezes over the coastal waters today. Locally stronger gusts will occur near Point Reyes and Point Sur regions. A cold front will increase winds to near gale force late Wednesday or early Thursday, building rough seas. Winds and seas ease into the weekend, but build again into the next work week with some chances for rain. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay- Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Wednesday to 3 AM PDT Thursday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Wednesday to 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kennedy LONG TERM....Kennedy AVIATION...MM MARINE...MM Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  384 FXUS63 KLSX 142029 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 329 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A low chance (20%) exists for an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm this afternoon/evening. A better chance (40-60%) for a round of strong to severe thunderstorms exists overnight. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary threat. - An additional chance for strong to severe thunderstorms exists Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. Once again, the primary threats are large hail and damaging winds with lower potential for tornadoes. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Wednesday Night) Issued at 324 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Analysis of recent GOES-East mid-level water vapor imagery reveals longwave troughing near the Four Corners Region with ridging across the eastern U.S., placing our area under a southwesterly regime. Strong and persistent southerly flow, continuing to advect Gulf moisture into the region, has helped to boost instability, with MLCAPE values well over 2,000 J/kg (99th climatological percentile) for much of the area. The latest ACARS soundings out of KSTL (18Z) reveals a slightly capped environment, with MLCIN around -20 J/kg correlated with an 800mb capping inversion. A few isolated showers, with occasional flashes of lightning have been pushing eastward across IL this afternoon, struggling to intensify. With the past behavior of these showers, indication is that a weak cap is still in place for the time being, supporting the KSTL ACARS sounding. Some high-res guidance fires an isolated thunderstorm or two across the area this afternoon/evening across an environment that is favorable to support supercells, should a storm overcome the inversion, tapping into the anomalous instability available. As a result, confidence is low in an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm this afternoon/evening. The best chance for this would be the result of a subtle mid-level forcing mechanism (shortwave) passing over and/or localized areas of surface and moisture convergence occur. All of which even high-resolution guidance can't resolve with detail or accuracy, lending to the lower confidence. Lastly, if scattered convective initiation occurs, storms that form would have potential to become severe with large hail and damaging winds the primary hazards. Further upstream, across OK/KS, CAMs are keying in on convective initiation this afternoon/evening, with eventual upscale growth leading to a remnant convective system approaching the region later this evening into the overnight hours. Model guidance reveals that this convection will be initiating off a more apparent mid-level shortwave within the southwesterly flow. With a larger scale feature at play that models are able to resolve, confidence is high in convective initiation across OK/KS and eventual upscale growth of storms into our area. Atmospheric instability across our area will steadily be decreasing with the loss of insolation, which is indicated well by forecast model soundings. As a result, this complex of thunderstorms is forecast to gradually weaken with time/eastward extent. However, these storms still has good potential to be severe across our area since HREF mean SBCAPE values are around 1,000-1,500 J/kg when these storms are modeled to enter the area. Any remaining severe thunderstorms would be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds, with a lower threat for tornadoes. On Wednesday, model guidance reveals a few subtle shortwaves propagating northeastward across the region on Wednesday that could result in a messier setup with more abundant showers and convection. Confidence is low in the potential regarding any lingering convection or additional rounds of storms originating upstream from OK/KS Wednesday morning and into the day. The evolution of daytime convection across our area will have a great influence on the severe weather threat that is realized Wednesday afternoon/evening. Kinematically speaking, Wednesday will feature greater shear as the mid/upper-level longwave trough out west ejects into the Plains by Wednesday afternoon. As a result, HREF mean 0-6km Bulk Shear steadily increases from Wednesday morning until Wednesday night/early Thursday, when it peaks around 40-45kts as the longwave trough advances over the area. Our greatest threat for severe weather is still forecast to be Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night as a cold front moves through northwest-southeast. As of now, the main hazards associated with this severe threat are large hail and damaging winds with a low risk for tornadoes. A severe weather threat may linger into early Thursday across parts of southeast MO/southwest IL, as that is where the cold front will take the longest to exit. Peine && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Next Tuesday) Issued at 324 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 NAM/GFS are in general agreement that a shortwave trough will move east of the area early in the day on Thursday. An attendant surface cold front/trough will move across Missouri/Illinois with only weak convergence along it will be enough to generate showers and scattered thunderstorms, mainly over the southeastern half of CWA (60-80% chance) of the CWA during the morning before shortwave ridging begins moving in from the west. Then it looks like there will be a period of dry weather on Thursday night as the ridge moves across the area before southwesterly flow sets up over the area on Friday ahead of trough that be moving across the Plains. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase late in the day Friday and especially Friday night as ascent from the trough and forcing from the associated surface front will move into the CWA during the night in an unstable and sheared environment. These storms look to be the result of upscale growth from storms that will develop in the Mid Missouri Valley on Friday afternoon and evening. There is good agreement in the medium range models with little spread in the LREF. This front is currently on track to move through the area on Saturday which would bring an end to the showers and thunderstorms from west to east. Even with this said, if the trough/front does speed up on Friday, then there will be a greater chance for severe weather here on Friday vs if is slows down, there would be the possibility we could see strong/severe thunderstorms on Saturday. By early next week, mainly dry weather is expected as northwesterly flow sets up over the area and a large surface high moves across the area. Very few (<10%) of the LREF members are producing precipitation over the area early next week. High temperatures will be in the 70s and 80s through Friday ahead of the front before temperatures drop to around 60 degrees on Sunday behind the front. There will be some rebound in highs by Monday and Tuesday as they climb back into the 70s. Britt && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon) Issued at 109 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A low chance (20%) for an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm exists for the area this afternoon/evening, but was not mentioned in the TAF because of the lower confidence of occurrence. Even though the chance is low, it is important to note, that if an isolated thunderstorm is able to form this afternoon/evening and directly impact a local terminal, IFR/below airport minimum visibilities along with damaging winds and hail would be possible. Confidence is higher in a remnant system of thunderstorms moving eastward out of KS/OK later this evening, potentially impacting local terminals by the late evening/overnight timeframe. If stronger thunderstorms persist with this system and directly impact a terminal, IFR/below airport minimum visibilities along with damaging winds and hail are certainly possible. Confidence is once again lower in conditions beyond the early morning with potential for some remaining showers/convection beyond what is indicated by the current TAF. Otherwise, gusty (20-30kts) southerly winds continue into early tonight before slackening off tomorrow morning, possibly gusting again by tomorrow afternoon. Peine && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX  704 FXUS65 KPUB 142031 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 231 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Passing system to bring showers to the Northern and Central mountains tonight, with a few showers possible across Pikes Peak region and northern portions of the southeast plains. - A dry and seasonal Wednesday with spotty elevated fire danger. - Breezy and warm Thursday with the return of widespread critical fire weather conditions - Next storm system brings cooler and unsettled weather for Friday and Saturday, along with the potential for widespread sub-freezing temperatures Saturday and Sunday mornings. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 231 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Water vapor imagery and satellite data indicates upper low currently spinning across west central Colorado, with drier air within the moderate southwest flow aloft starting to filter across southern Colorado. Regional radars indicating scattered showers, and a few embedded thunderstorms spreading across the higher terrain at this time. Strengthening lee trough across the plains has helped to develop breezy south to southwest winds across southern portions of the plains at this time, with gusty southwest winds in place across the higher terrain. Latest model data remains in good agreement of said upper low weakening as it continues to lift out into northeastern Colorado this evening, with a broad upper trough then continuing into the Northern High Plains through the day on Wednesday. This will keep showers and a few embedded thunderstorms spreading out across the the Northern and Central mtns this afternoon, with a few possible showers across the Pikes Peak region and Palmer Dvd region through the evening as the passing waves cold front pushes south and east through the late evening and into early Wednesday morning. Passing showers could produce a quick inch or two of snow, with snow levels down to around 7500 feet this evening with the passing wave. Gusty southwest winds of 20 to 40 mph across the plains this afternoon become more west to northwest through the evening before diminishing behind said cold front overnight. This will keep critical fire weather conditions in place through the early evening, with current Red Flag Warning in place through 8 pm MDT. Cooler air associated with the passing wave will bring in cooler overnight lows mainly in the 30s across the plains, with teens and 20s expected across the higher terrain. Drier air within the the moderating west to northwest flow aloft will keep dry conditions in place tomorrow, save for a few possible showers across the Central mtns, with temperatures expected to be at to slightly above seasonal norms in the 60s to low 70s across the plains, and mainly in the 40s and 50s across the higher terrain. Afternoon westerly breezes could bring some spotty elevated fire danger to the interior valleys and gap prone areas, however coverage will not be enough to warrant any fire weather highlights. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 231 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Latest model data is also in good agreement of increasing west to southwest flow aloft across the region on Thursday, as the next upper trough out the Pacific Northwest digs across the Intermountain West. This will keep warm and dry conditions in place, and with gusty westerly winds, support more widespread critical fire weather conditions on Thursday, with current Fire Weather Watch for most of south central and southeast Colorado remain in place. Models are trending faster the broad upper trough translating across the Rockies through the day on Friday, bringing a quick shot of precipitation to the region Friday into Friday night. This system is progged to be colder than previous systems, with snow levels down to between 6000-7000 on Friday. The quicker movement of the system and associated cold front early Friday morning looks to keep critical fire weather conditions at bay on Friday, with high temperatures across the plains likely being reached early in the day, with cooling and breezy northerly winds being progged behind the front. With the colder air in place behind the passing system, overnight lows look to be well below freezing in the teens and 20s into Saturday morning. Those who may have already turned on irrigation systems or planted will need to monitor the forecast and may want to take proactive steps to prevent any damage from the projected sub-freezing temperatures. Dry conditions with below seasonal temperatures in the 50s and 60s can be expected on Saturday across the plains, with highs in the 40s and 50s across the higher terrain. Another period of at and below freezing temperatures in the 20s and 30s is expected Saturday night into Sunday morning, will lead to warming trend into early next week, as upper level ridging builds back across the Rockies. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1141 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions remain expected at COS, PUB and ALS over the next 24 hours. Winds at COS and PUB will become gusty south to southwest 20-30kt through the early afternoon, as prefrontal trough deepens across the plains. COS could see a brief -shra through the late afternoon, before passing upper trough sends front across the plains with gusty north to northwest winds developing at COS and PUB through the early evening. Winds diminish remaining generally north to northwest through the overnight hours. Winds at ALS to remain gusty west to southwest 25-35kt through the late afternoon, becoming breezy west to northwest into the early evening, before diminishing overnight. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for COZ220>222-224>237. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ227>237. && $$ SHORT TERM...MW LONG TERM...MW AVIATION...MW  837 FXUS65 KBOI 142032 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 232 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain, mountain snow and gusty winds on Wednesday, then snow level lowering to valley floors Thursday morning. - Subfreezing morning temperatures Thursday through Saturday across the entire area. - Warmer temperatures over the weekend with another chance of precipitation early next week. && .SHORT TERM /Through Thursday Night/... An upper trough dropping south along the BC coast will push into the region later tonight bringing valley rain and mountain snow. Precipitation will develop across SE Oregon by late this evening, spreading into SW Idaho overnight. Snow levels of 5000-6500 feet will support snow or a rain/snow mix across mountain valley floors with any minor accumulation melting off by late morning. Precipitation mixes with or changes to rain below 6000 feet with a heavy, wet snow continuing in the higher mountains through Wednesday evening. Liquid equivalent totals over the mountains is 0.75-1.5" over the 24h period from late this evening through Wednesday evening. Above 6500 feet this will translate to 10-20" of snow, with high end amounts of up to 2 feet. Lower elevations will see periods of rain on Wednesday. By late morning strong southwest flow aloft (30-50 mph at ~10kft) will mix to the surface bringing gusty winds to higher terrain outside of the Snake Plain. The windiest locations will be southern Harney, Malhuer, and Owyhee counties where gusts of 40-45 mph are expected. A cold front will push into the region Wednesday evening bringing a chance of thunderstorms, more gusty winds and lower snow levels. Areas that don't tap into the stronger winds during the day, will see a period of stronger gusts with the frontal passage. This is mostly in the Snake Plain and Weiser Basin. Snow levels will drop to valley floors behind the front as precipitation scatters out. Though it will remain breezy, lower elevations will briefly flirt with freezing temperatures Thursday morning. The upper low passes overhead on Thursday, keeping a chance of rain/snow/graupel showers at lower elevations with snow showers in the mountains. Daytime instability will support heavier showers and possible thunderstorms in the mountains which could drop brief heavy snow. Thursday night will see drying conditions and clearing skies as the low exits eastward. This will allow for a widespread freeze, and for many locations a hard freeze (28 degrees or less). && .LONG TERM /Friday through Tuesday/... Strong northwest flow from the back end of the eastward moving trough will continue breezy conditions Friday, with elevated gusts up to 30 mph mainly over Magic Valley and Camas Prairie. The west-central ID mountains will see a 20-30% chance of snow showers from remnant upper moisture on Friday. Nighttime temperatures will be expected to stay on the colder end, below freezing through Saturday morning. Otherwise, a warming and drying trend will settle in for the weekend as a ridge builds in from the northwest coast. Peak temperatures will hover slightly above normal on Saturday and 5-10 degrees above normal on Sunday. Long-range guidance continues to favor another low digging down from the Gulf of Alaska early next week, although considerable uncertainty remains over its arrival timing for our area. However, ensembles still favor the late Sunday/Monday time frame. With that, precipitation chances will increase from west to east early Sunday into Monday, reaching 30-60% area-wide by Monday afternoon. Precipitation chances will remain elevated through midweek. The south-southwest flow from this system will keep temperatures near normal when it impacts our area. Gusty winds can be expected ahead of and behind the system passage. && .AVIATION /18Z Tuesday through Wednesday/... Issued 1152 AM MDT TUE APR 14 2026 VFR today. Band of SCT-BKN high clouds moving in from west. Cold front will bring showers from W-E early Wednesday morning, with MVFR- IFR conditions and mtn obscuration in showers/low ceilings. Snow Levels will be 5-6.5 kft MSL today through Wednesday morning. Surface winds: SW-NW 5-15 kt this afternoon with gusts up to 25 kt near KTWF/KJER. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-NW 10-20 kt KBOI...VFR. Rain showers returning early Wednesday morning with increasing clouds and lowering ceilings. Surface winds: W-NW 5-10 kt this afternoon, then SE 5-10kt this evening. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...DG LONG TERM....JY AVIATION.....JY  437 FXUS63 KGLD 142034 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 234 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Red Flag Warning is in effect for portions of the area Tuesday afternoon and evening, mainly along and south of I-70 where warm temps, low humidity and SW winds at 20-30 mph gusting to 45 mph may lead to rapid wildfire growth. - Rain showers and isolated storms are possible late this afternoon and evening mainly across the Tri-State border counties. Severe weather is unlikely but there is a 10% or less chance of a rogue wind gusts around 60 mph. - Breezy S to SW winds and critical fire weather possible over portions of the area, yet again, on Thursday. - A strong cold front Friday afternoon may drop temperatures below freezing overnight Friday and Saturday. Light snowfall may occur behind the front as well. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 101 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Front is pushing south through the area with dew points increasing behind it. This front is forecast to start retreating back north through the day as a warm front. A developing surface low across Colorado will be the dictating feature that will determine when and the northern extent of this. Red Flag Warning will remain but have significant concerns for the duration of the northern and eastern extent of the warning due to timing of the retreating warm front. The strongest of the winds will be to the south of the warm front where winds remain from the WSW and winds gust around 40 mph. Late this afternoon and evening rainfall chances still look to increase with the warm front, additional lift due to the low and an approaching 500mb shortwave and associated jet streak. The favored area is across Yuma, Dundy and Cheyenne (KS) this evening where high based showers characterized by inverted v soundings are in place. I do have some concern for 50-60+ mph winds with any downdrafts. Winds also may be able to mix from pressure rises on its own as well as RAP and HRRR suggest 6-8mb rises over 3 hours with the GFS being the strongest at 10mb over 3 hours. Rain chances may extend a little further south but again will be dependent on the placement of the low and where the dry slot will set up. Guidance suggests that deep saturation and perhaps even the most favorable timeframe from light rain will occur early Wednesday morning through the early afternoon as the low continues to move through the area so have increased rain chances through the morning hours. Northwest flow is forecast to be in place through the day on Wednesday with high temperatures in the 70s. Guidance is coming into agreement on a tighter pressure gradient in wake of the low with wind gusts around 30 mph across the entire area. Due to the progression of the low am forecasting these winds to ease up in magnitude as the afternoon goes on. Thursday, surface troughing is forecast to be in place across the area. A very dry airmass is also forecast to be in place as well along with warm temperatures as high temperatures reach the 80s across the area. The combination of this is leading to high confidence in single digit humidity values for most if not all of the forecast area. Do have concerns for critical fire weather but at this time winds look to be fairly marginal. Am opting to forego any fire weather highlights at this time to ensure that the signal for winds remains and does not degrade which has been the trend over the past few days. Thursday night and into the extended period a strong cold front is forecast to move into the area shifting winds to the north. If there is a fire ongoing that is something to be aware of. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 218 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A high amplitude shortwave upper-level trough looks to be making its way across the Rocky Mountains beginning Friday morning, with a modest 50-70 kt jet streak at 500-mb across the Four-Corners Region. A broad surface low pressure is favored to already exist from the Midwest back into Eastern Colorado in association with these upper- level features, and may continue to deepen throughout the day, particularly across portions of the Central and South-Central High Plains where lee cyclogenesis is favored. A strong cold front looks to begin traversing the forecast region sometime Friday afternoon, though there are some issues as to the exact timing. This matters because critical fire weather conditions may be experienced ahead of the cold front. Current forecast guidance shows mid to upper-teen relative humidities (RH) across portions of East-Central Colorado and West-Central Kansas, with wind gusts in the 25-40 mph range possible during the early to mid-afternoon. Critical fire weather conditions could be mitigated with a faster progression of the cold front, or enhanced by a slower progression. LREF guidance currently shows a large amount of variance in wind direction across portions of Northwest Kansas and Eastern Colorado Friday morning, highlighting issues regarding the front's timing. Around 60% of GEFS and EC members show a scenario where the cold front progresses faster, and thus, would mitigate the critical fire weather risk. LREF guidance would seem to support this solution, suggesting at best a 1 in 3 chance for RH values to meet critical fire weather criteria across portions of Western Kansas, and less for the rest of the region. Confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed Friday afternoon sits at around 5%. Friday evening may be accompanied by a freeze overnight behind the cold front, in addition to an opportunity for snowfall. Lows are currently forecast in the lower-20s to lower-30s Friday night across the region, with as high as a 60% chance for light snowfall across portions of Northeastern Colorado and far Southwest Nebraska. NBM guidance suggests over a 40% chance across this zone that the snowfall is measurable (>0.1 inches). Reduced visibilities due to blowing snow may also be experienced, as NBM guidance indicates that sustained winds over 25 mph can't be ruled out. Cooler conditions could last into Saturday, with highs forecast in the mid-50s to lower-60s. Critical fire weather conditions may once again be experienced across portions of Eastern Colorado and West-Central Kansas, where RH values are forecast in the mid to upper-teens, and wind gusts in the 25-40 mph range. NBM guidance suggests a 60-80% chance for wind gusts to meet criteria for critical fire weather conditions across this zone, with LREF guidance giving RH values a 50-70% chance. Even so, confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed across this zone is only about 5% due to the strength and duration of the cold front from Friday into Saturday, which may keep RH values a bit more elevated. While deterministic model guidance is a lot more divergent past Sunday morning, GEFS and EC 500-mb height mean-spread guidance suggests ridging is favored across the forecast region Sunday morning through the end of the period. Conditions look to be warm and dry, with highs in the 70s on Sunday, and 80s Monday and Tuesday. RH values continue to be forecast on the lower end, with upper single-digits to lower-teens on Sunday, and low to mid-teens Monday and Tuesday. Critical fire weather conditions may be experienced all three days, though confidence decreases for Monday and Tuesday due to timing issues of a slow-moving upper-level trough from the west. Sunday's risk seems highest, as LREF guidance suggests a 3 in 4 chance for RH values to meet criteria across most of the area, with NBM guidance yielding over 50% probabilities for wind gusts to meet criteria. Confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed Sunday is around 10%. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1113 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A warm front is forecast to retreat through each terminal this afternoon which will lead to a period of light and variable winds; the front is forecast to move through GLD enough that winds are forecast to become a bit more southwesterly with gusts around 25 knots. A developing low pressure system late this afternoon and evening will lead to increase rain chances and continued breezy winds, before the breezy winds develop LLWS will be a concern. Rain chances at favored at KMCK Wednesday morning. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for KSZ013>016-027>029-041-042. CO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ253-254. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Trigg LONG TERM...Davis AVIATION...Trigg  101 FXUS65 KTFX 142041 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 241 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - It will be windy this afternoon along the Northern Rocky Mountain Front. - It will be windy in Southwestern Montana on Wednesday. - Widespread precipitation returns Wednesday evening through Friday morning with colder temperatures on Thursday and Friday. && .DISCUSSION... - Meteorological Overview: This afternoon there will be upper-level zonal flow over North- central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will keep warm weather over the area. Due to a strong surface pressure gradient this afternoon it will be windy along the Northern Rocky Mountain Front and plains west of I-15. This evening due to an upper-level shortwave there will be snow along the Northern Rocky Mountain Front. On Wednesday there is an upper-level ridge ahead of an approaching upper-level trough over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This combined with the southerly winds aloft will bring warm temperatures to the area with windy conditions in the valleys of Southwestern Montana. Due to the warm temperatures and southerly flow aloft instability will increase and isolated locations could see a rumble of thunder Wednesday afternoon. See the Forecast Confidence & Scenarios Section for details. On Wednesday snow will continue along the Northern Rocky Mountain Front. Wednesday afternoon/evening a Pacific Front will move across North- central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will bring a heavy band of snow along the I-90 Corridor late Wednesday afternoon through early Wednesday evening. Wednesday afternoon and early evening across North-central and Central Montana initially there will be rain showers before transitioning to snow showers Wednesday night. On Thursday an upper-level trough is over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This combined with the cold front will bring well-below seasonal averages for temperatures on Thursday. During the day on Thursday there will be snow showers across North- central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. On Friday the upper- level trough remains over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. On Friday due to the upper-level trough it will be cold in the morning with temperatures warming up some in the afternoon with mostly dry weather. On Saturday and Sunday an upper-level ridge moves over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will bring warm and dry weather to the area for the weekend. -IG - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: Across southwestern Montana there is greater than an 80% chance for snowfall rates in excess of 1 inch per hour Wednesday evening. Along the I-90 corridor Wednesday afternoon/early evening there is greater than a 50% chance for surface instability combined with a tenth of an inch of snowfall accumulation (i.e. a snow squall). The greatest risk from any snow squall will be a sudden reduction in visibility. On Wednesday south of the Montana Highway 200 Corridor there is a 15 - 30% chance for thunder. From Wednesday tonight through Friday morning there is greater than a 90% chance for 9 inches of snow or greater across the Madison and Gallatin Mountains. As a result a Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for those areas from Wednesday evening through Friday morning. From tonight through Thursday morning there is greater than a 50% chance for 6 inches of snow or greater along the Northern Rocky Mountain Front. As a result a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the Northern Rocky Mountain Front from midnight tonight through Thursday morning. Across the valleys of Southwestern Montana from Wednesday evening through Thursday evening there is a greater than a 50% chance for 2 inches of snow or greater. Across the lower- elevations of North-central and Central Montana from Wednesday evening through Thursday evening there is greater than a 35% chance for 1 inch of snow or greater. Wednesday evening through Thursday evening across the Little Belts, Highwoods, and Southern Rocky Mountain Front there is greater than a 75% chance for 4 inches of snow or greater. On Wednesday there is a 30 - 60% chance for wind gusts of 55 mph or greater across the valleys of Southwestern Montana. As a result across the Madison and the Beaverhead River Valleys a High Wind Watch remains in effect during the day on Wednesday. Friday morning there is greater than a 50% chance for a low temperatures of 15 degrees or colder along the Hi-Line. -IG && .AVIATION... 14/18Z TAF Period Breezy west to southwest winds pick up this afternoon, with the strongest winds along the Rocky Mountain Front. Wind gusts of up to 45kts will be possible at KCTB through 15/03z. Winds will decrease overnight but will pick back up again mid to late Wednesday morning. A Pacific whether system will bring in mountain snow Wednesday morning and light isolated showers at lower elevations. The isolated nature of the showers makes it difficult to pin point start times in the TAFs, as better chances arrive later Wednesday. -Wilson && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 41 59 27 37 / 0 40 90 60 CTB 34 54 20 31 / 10 20 60 50 HLN 38 58 27 39 / 10 80 90 80 BZN 36 59 27 38 / 10 60 100 80 WYS 28 45 26 33 / 10 90 100 100 DLN 36 57 26 36 / 0 50 100 80 HVR 39 61 25 35 / 0 20 80 50 LWT 37 58 26 35 / 10 60 90 60 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Thursday for East Glacier Park Region. Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday evening through late Thursday night for Gallatin and Madison County Mountains and Centennial Mountains. High Wind Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon for Beaverhead and Western Madison below 6000ft- Madison River Valley. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls  143 FXUS63 KBIS 142047 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 347 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Low chance of light rain across the south tonight. - Dry and warmer on Wednesday. - Wide range in temperatures from northwest to southeast Thursday as a cold front pushes into the state. - Turning colder with periods of rain and snow Thursday night through Friday with medium to high chances for light accumulating snow. - Well below normal temperatures Friday through Saturday, followed by a gradual warm-up into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 345 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A digging western U.S trough will bring a chance of rain and snow followed by much colder temperatures late in the workweek and into the weekend. Currently, stratus has cleared in the west and continues to erode over central and eastern ND. Afternoon CU has developed over portions of western ND however. For the rest of this afternoon and tonight, there remains a low probability of an isolated shower due to the combination of daytime heating and forcing from an approaching shortwave currently over northeast Wyoming. Forecast soundings show a shallow and narrow region of instability so thunder is not anticipated and any weak shower activity that does develop will likely produce little if any qpf reaching the ground. Quasi-zonal upper level flow continues through the day Wednesday before backing to the southwest in response to the upper level trough dropping into the Pacific Northwest. Wednesday should be an very pleasant day with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s with not a lot of wind by North Dakota standards. The upper trough tracks into the northern Rockies Wednesday night bringing the initial chances for precipitation to northwest ND late Wednesday night. Thursday through Friday...The upper trough moves into the Northern High Plains Thursday, then traverses the forecast area Thursday nigh through Friday. At the surface a surface low develops over the Mondak region and is situated along the ND/SD border at 12Z Thursday. The low pushes east during the day with an elongated surface low from northern Minnesota into northeast Colorado by 00Z Friday. This will produce a very tight temperature gradient from northwest to southeast Thursday. Highs are expected to range from the lower 40s far north to the mid 70s far southeast. Winds will also be picking up during the day from northwest to southeast as the surface trough pushes east. There are some (mainly) chance pops in the west and far north Thursday but only the far northwest looks to be the most likely area to see more than a trace, maybe a few hundredths of an inch of rain. The best precipitation chances will occur Thursday night through Friday as the upper level trough moves through the forecast area. A cluster analysis shows that there's a 60/40 split between a more compact wave moving through the forecast area versus a split wave with better energy north and south of the forecast area. It looks cold enough that both solutions will bring snow. It also looks like the forcing and moisture available are limited enough that qpf is pretty light with a broad swath of 0.10 to 0.15 from southwest ND into north central to northeast ND. The more compact wave would yield a more widespread swath of QPF, but overall the differing impacts between the two solutions looks to be minimal. Our latest NBM guidance is depicting a medium probability for an inch of snow extending from southwest into northwest and north central ND, with low to very low probabilities elsewhere. This is the 24 hour probability ending at 18Z Friday. Two inch probabilities then taper to low for this same area. Probabilities for at least a hundredth of an inch of snow are medium to high across all of western and central ND, so most will likely see a little light snow with this system. It will breezy to windy as the rain changes to snow and temperatures will drop well below freezing over much of western and north central ND, so even though snow accumulations are not expected to amount to much, there could be some minor impacts to travel Thursday night into Friday morning where we do see the combination of snow and winds with freezing surfaces. Once the snow ends on Friday the rest of the weekend into early next week looks to remain dry as upper level ridging builds over the region. It will be cold again Friday night into Saturday morning with Saturday morning lows possibly into the teens over parts of the west and north and highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s. We do begin a gradual warm-up Saturday through early next week with highs climbing back into the 60s and lower 70s by Monday and Tuesday. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1158 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 IFR ceilings at most TAF sites to begin the 18Z TAF period. KDIK has just cleared from the low stratus. Fog has dissipated and stratus will continue to clear through the afternoon, with KMOT and KJMS holding on to the stratus longer. KBIS and KXWA should clear out in the next couple of hours. Once stratus clears, expect VFR conditions for the remainder of the TAF period. The exception is patchy fog possible in the James River Valley overnight, including KJMS, but probabilities are too low to include in the KJMS TAF. An isolated evening/overnight shower is possible southwest and south central tonight but coverage is too isolated to include in TAFS. Surface flow variable from westerly to southerly through the TAF period generally 15 knots or less. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TWH AVIATION...TWH  278 FXUS66 KOTX 142052 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 152 PM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A robust cold front to deliver valley rain, mountain snow, and gusty winds through Thursday. - Drier and more seasonal temperatures Friday and Saturday. - Rain chances return Sunday and Monday. && .SYNOPSIS... A cold front passage this afternoon into Wednesday will bring lowland rain, mountain snow, and breezy to windy conditions. Some snow will make it down to the lowlands Wednesday night into Thursday morning on the tail end of the mid-week system. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Thursday: A Gulf of Alaska Low continues pushing a decent amount of moisture and cooler air into the Inland Northwest. Precipitable water amounts are around half an inch (120-140 percent above normal). The colder air will drop the snow levels from 4000ft to 2000ft through Wednesday. Mountain snow will continue with valleys along the Cascades and northern valleys changing from rain to rain/snow mix or snow by early Wednesday morning. Snow accumulation will be confined to above 3500ft as ground surface temperatures will be too warm for snow accumulation. Winter weather advisories and a warning have been issued for many of the regions mountain passes through Thursday. Stevens Pass has a 25-75 percent probability snow range of 11-13 inches. Sherman has a 4-5 inches range. Lookout has a 9-14 inch range. Snoqualmie Pass has a 12-14 inch range. Models are indicating weak convection over the higher terrains of the region. The strongest chance for thunder is over Northeast Washington and North Idaho. There is not enough confidence to include thunder for the Cascades. The Low is also tightening the pressure gradient as it swings through the region. It will lead to breezy conditions through the period. Strongest winds will be tonight with gusts into the 30-40 mph range across the Basin. Winds will remain breezy with gusts 15-25 mph. Sustained winds will be in the teens. Overnight temperatures are also expected to dip. While the highs will mainly be in the 40s to low 50s. The lows will drop into the upper 20s and 30s Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Portions of the Columbia Basin have reached early growing season. Cold sensitive vegetation could be impacted. If winds remain breezy, it will lower the potential for frost/freeze impacts. Friday through Tuesday: High pressure fills in behind the exiting Low. A dry warning trend is expected through the weekend and into the start of next week. Something to keep an eye is a Low moving near coast of Southern Oregon on Monday. Depending on the strength and placement, it could lead to light showers returning to the region for the start of the week. /JDC && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS: The next system moves in today into tonight with rain and a return to MVFR at GEG/SFF/COE/PUW. Downslope flow off the Cascades will keep conditions VFR at KEAT/KMWH, while similar effects off the Blue Mountains keep LWS VFR until after the cold front passage Wednesday morning. CIGS are expected to degrade further as well for KPUW, becoming IFR around 15z Wed. The system will also usher in gusty west-southwest winds through the TAF period, shifting to west-northwest behind the cold front in Central WA Wednesday morning. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Moderate confidence in CIGS dropping to MVFR for KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW tonight. Moderate confidence in KPUW dropping to IFR 15-18z Wed. High confidence that VFR conditions persist through the TAF period at KEAT/KMWH. JW ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 38 49 29 50 29 54 / 80 70 30 30 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 37 47 30 48 29 51 / 100 90 50 50 10 10 Pullman 37 44 29 45 29 50 / 90 90 60 50 10 10 Lewiston 43 51 34 50 34 55 / 80 90 50 40 10 0 Colville 34 52 27 54 26 59 / 90 60 30 30 0 0 Sandpoint 37 45 30 46 29 51 / 100 90 60 70 20 20 Kellogg 36 42 28 42 29 46 / 100 90 70 80 30 40 Moses Lake 39 56 30 58 30 60 / 30 20 10 0 0 0 Wenatchee 37 51 33 55 34 59 / 50 20 10 0 0 0 Omak 35 53 31 58 32 61 / 50 20 10 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Freeze Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday morning for Moses Lake Area-Upper Columbia Basin- Wenatchee Area. Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM PDT Wednesday for Okanogan Highlands. Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM PDT Wednesday for Western Chelan County. Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM PDT Wednesday for Western Okanogan County. ID...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 5 AM PDT Thursday for Central Panhandle Mountains. && $$  921 FXUS66 KPDT 142055 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 155 PM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mountain snow today into Thursday - Breezy to windy through Thursday - Near- to sub-freezing morning lows Thursday and Friday for the lowlands && .DISCUSSION... Ensemble and deterministic NWP guidance are in excellent agreement that the next weather system to affect the region, an upper-level closed low currently centered over southeast Alaska, will continue to track along the coast of British Columbia and eventually into the Pacific Northwest through Thursday. Its attendant cold front is expected (99 percent confidence) to slowly traverse the forecast area overnight (Washington Cascades) through Wednesday afternoon (far northeast Oregon), lowering snow levels below mountain pass elevations. Winter weather headlines remain in effect, and confidence is high (80 percent) in 4-8 inches of snowfall for the Washington Cascades, 6-12 inches for the Oregon Cascades, and 5-10 inches for the northern Blue Mountains with locally higher totals along the crests. The bulk of the snowfall will likely (80 percent confidence) end by Wednesday morning (Washington Cascades) to Wednesday afternoon (Oregon Cascades and Blues) as the front sags southeast, but snow showers will persist through Wednesday night or Thursday morning as the aforementioned upper low moves overhead. Precipitation associated with the cold front in non-mountain areas will be mostly rain below 1500-2000 feet, though uncertainty still exists in snowfall between 2000 and 4000 feet. Much of this uncertainty is driven by how long the frontal band lingers over the lowlands (i.e. how much precipitation falls and how much rate-driven cooling will occur within the band), and also in the location/magnitude of post-frontal snow showers. Widespread breezy to windy southwesterly to westerly winds are expected this afternoon and tonight in advance of the cold frontal passage. Confidence was too low (50 percent) in widespread advisory-level sustained winds or wind gusts to issue any wind headlines. By Wednesday afternoon, winds will become westerly to northwesterly in the wake of the front and remain diurnally breezy to windy through Thursday. NBM probabilities of exceeding advisory levels vary widely (30-80 percent) across the lower elevations each day, highest for wind-prone locations of the foothills of the Blue Mountains and north-central Oregon as well as the Kittitas Valley. The cold air mass associated with the upper low Thursday morning has prompted concerns for near- to below-freezing morning temperatures. NBM calibrated probabilities suggest medium-high chances (60-90 percent) of freezing temperatures for the Yakima and Kittitas valleys, medium probabilities (30-70 percent) along the foothills of the Blue Mountains, and low- medium-medium (20-50 percent) for the lowest elevations including the eastern Columbia River Gorge and lower Columbia Basin. Have opted to issue a Freeze Watch where chances of freezing are highest (Kittitas and Yakima valleys and the foothills of the northern Blue Mountains of Oregon), but will note there are still a lot of moving parts to the forecast with uncertainty in how much cloud cover will persist and how windy conditions will remain overnight into the morning hours. Also worthy mentioning, with the notable exception of several CAMs (and perhaps a few other inputs not examined), raw inputs to the NBM are largely not supportive of sub-freezing temperatures while bias-corrected inputs are. This is not uncommon, but when conditions are not calm, raw inputs are more likely to have their warmer temperatures verify than when radiational cooling is efficient and guidance struggles to resolve cold pools. An upper-level ridge will likely (80 percent confidence) build into the Pacific Northwest Friday into the weekend, yielding lighter winds and mostly dry conditions. The main headline- worthy consideration for Friday will be near- to sub-freezing temperatures for the lowlands. This set-up looks more favorable for mostly clear to clear skies and lighter winds relative to Thursday morning, so while the coldest air mass will have exited the region to the east, radiational cooling should be more efficient. By Sunday through Monday, uncertainty in the 500-hPa pattern grows, but some flavor of a 500-hPa closed low (~85 percent of members) or trough (~15 percent of members) is advertised by all ensemble clusters to be in the vicinity of, or over, the Pacific Northwest. Will note the trend in 12Z ensembles has been towards the offshore cut-off low, a solution that anecdotally materializes more often relative to the more progressive solutions. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions currently prevail with concerns revolving around winds the next 24- hrs and deteriorating flight categories 12Z on tomorrow associated with a cold front. This active 24-hr window will see persistent breezy winds with elevated winds continuing overnight. This will be followed by a modest wind shift between 12Z-18Z tomorrow at terminals tomorrow with peak gusts expected around 25-35 kts. While there are low chance ahead of it this afternoon (23Z-04Z) at KALW and KPSC terminals, more robust chances (60% and higher) will be seen after 9Z tomorrow morning at terminals from west to east and north to south. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 41 52 31 53 / 50 90 40 20 ALW 42 52 34 53 / 80 90 60 30 PSC 44 58 34 61 / 30 70 30 0 YKM 38 55 30 59 / 60 40 10 0 HRI 42 56 32 59 / 30 80 20 0 ELN 32 48 29 52 / 60 30 10 0 RDM 34 48 23 49 / 40 80 30 0 LGD 39 48 29 46 / 90 100 80 60 GCD 38 49 26 45 / 70 100 70 60 DLS 41 53 35 57 / 80 80 20 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT Wednesday for WAZ030. Freeze Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning for WAZ026-027. Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM PDT Wednesday for WAZ522. OR...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT Wednesday for ORZ502. Freeze Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning for ORZ507. Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ509. && $$ DISCUSSION...86 AVIATION...80  723 FXUS63 KGID 142056 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 356 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Red Flag Warning through 9 PM for most of our counties along and south of the Nebraska-Kansas border (RH 15-25%, WSW wind gusts 25-35 mph) - Severe thunderstorms will be possible this evening mainly within a corridor from Kearney and Holdrege and points to the northeast towards York and Fullerton. The main threats will be quarter size hail and wind gusts to 60 mph through around or just after sunset. - Another round of thunderstorms Wednesday morning through 3 PM across south central Nebraska could also become severe with the primary threats being large hail and damaging winds. - Friday's storm system will likely send a cold front through early in the day resulting in morning highs, strong northerly winds, and colder temperatures than currently forecast (likely not a nice day). But this will probably keep the severe weather threat east of our forecast area. - Strong north-northwest winds Friday into Friday night: Our entire forecast area will have strong north-northwest winds Friday into Friday night, with sustained speeds of at least 30 MPH and gusts of at least 40 MPH likely. (Not a nice day) - Almost daily fire weather concerns Thurs onward: Each afternoon between Thursday and Monday, at least near-critical fire weather conditions are forecast develop within at least parts of our forecast area. A few days could also see fire weather conditions reach critical levels, including already on Thursday. - Slightly sub-freezing temperatures possible this weekend: Some areas will fall below freezing already Saturday morning with most areas around or below freezing by Sunday morning. Did you already plant your tomatoes (better cover them). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 251 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Today... The SPC expanded the marginal severe weather risk area into our forecast area along the nearly stationary boundary running from Kearney towards York. We have seen vertical development in the CU field around the Tri-Cities and are getting close to possible thunderstorm development. We could see a few isolated thunderstorms in this narrow frontal zone where moisture has been pooling allowing dewpoints to climb to around 50F. These will mainly be elevated thunderstorms taking advantage of the steep lapse rates, modest MUCAPE values to around 1000 J/KG, and very strong 0-6 km shear (65 kts). Quarter sized hail is the primary threat, but larger DCAPE values over 1200 J/KG suggest that strong wind gusts to 60 mph will also be possible with any of these thunderstorms. Tonight... We could see some scattered showers or even an isolated thunderstorm, but most areas will likely stay dry. However, things could get more interesting during the day on Wednesday. Wednesday... The last two runs (12Z and 18Z) of the RRFS have been indicating thunderstorm development across our western zones around dawn. These thunderstorms then track northeast through the morning, could impact the Tri-Cities, and exit our northeastern forecast area early Wednesday afternoon (likely before 3 PM). Although our forecast area is not currently outlooked for severe weather, it is possible that the severe weather threat area may need to be expanded to include some of our Nebraska counties. The main threat will again be hail and wind through early afternoon. Breezy northwesterly winds in the afternoon along with cooler 60s behind the storm system may result in it feeling not as nice as one might expect. Thursday... This is a high confidence warm day with highs back into the 80s. It should be dry and we have some fire weather concerns, please see the fire weather section below. Friday Through next Weekend... A big open wave upper trough will race across the plains, but the timing is not favorable for our area to see much if any precipitation. An expected Friday morning frontal passage will likely result in falling temperatures on Friday. Our forecast is probably too warm and would not be surprised if see some areas falling into the 40s Friday afternoon. Even if it starts out nice Friday morning across our southeastern zones, it probably won't end very nice behind that cold front. Fire weather is again a concern. Please see the fire weather section below. Monday and Tuesday... The cold will be short lived and we should quickly see a warmer weather pattern return ahead of a developing western United States Trough. That trough could bring us some mid week rain. We'll have to see as it's still a long ways off. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1254 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: The wind for the most part should remain out of the northeast at KEAR and KGRI through the evening with the strongest winds this afternoon. Eventually the wind will become northerly late tonight into Wednesday morning as a surface low tracks south of the area. Eventually we expect breezy northwesterly winds by Wednesday afternoon after the low pressure system passes by. The primary aviation concern is the chance for showers and thunderstorms mainly tonight into Wednesday morning with the most likely time frame being late Wednesday morning through around the noon hour as the surface low passes through. Will continue with the VFR conditions for now, but can not rule out periods of MVFR ceilings Wednesday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 520 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING: Red flag conditions are ongoing south of the nearly stationary boundary. This includes our Nebraska counties along the NE/KS border as well as all of our north central Kansas counties. Red flag conditions are expected to continue until around sunset. Higher dewpoints just north of the stationary boundary will limit the fire danger along the I80 (Tri-Cities) area. THURSDAY: We will get a break in the fire weather conditions on Wednesday due to cooler weather and scattered showers. However, the heat, drier RH, and southerly winds will return on Thursday afternoon- early evening as high temperatures again jump into the 80s with southerly winds sustained around 20 MPH/gusting at least 25 MPH. Relative humidity will tank to around 10-20% in the afternoon. We may need fire weather headlines for Thursday afternoon, but wanted to get through today's Red Flag Warning first before issuing for Thursday. FRIDAY-MONDAY: There is less certainty during this time frame and it will get cooler. The airmass behind Friday's system is dry and RH values will continue to be at least near critical. There could be enough wind to result in possible fire weather headlines during this period for some areas. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ083>087. KS...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005>007- 017>019. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wesely AVIATION...Wesely FIRE WEATHER...Wesely