947 FXUS65 KLKN 142103 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 203 PM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Strong cold front moves in from the northwest Wednesday night. Gusty winds and snowfall will produce minor travel impacts, primarily across northern Nevada. * Generally fair weather in place Friday thru Sunday, though breezes will be present Sunday * Next weather system moves in during the Monday timeframe && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Monday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Fair weather in place tonight with overnight lows in the mid 20s to mid 30s, low 20s in the typical cold spots. Increasing west-southwesterly winds Wednesday as the upper level trof and attendant surface cold front approach from the northwest. Isolated light showers are expected by Wednesday afternoon ahead of the front, though showers look to be relegated to the high terrain. Front begins to move into the forecast area Wednesday night, exiting to the southeast Thursday night. A band of light to moderate snow will be embedded along the front as it traverses the forecast area. Greatest snowfall amounts look to be situated over northern Elko County, west of US-93. 3 to 5 inches are currently forecast. A skiff to 3 inches is generally expected elsewhere. Minor travel inconveniences should be expected, especially during the morning commute Thursday across northern Nevada, based on the timing of the front. Though given that this is a spring season storm and sub-surface soil temperatures are relatively warm. Any slush ups or snow that sticks to the road will do so under heavier snowfall rates. Winds shift northwesterly post frontal and remain breezy. Dry weather expected Friday with lighter winds as a progressive upper level ridge begins to move into the western U.S. Generally fair weather defined by warming temperatures and afternoon breezes, especially Sunday afternoon with notably stronger southwesterly gusts present ahead of the next upper level low and dynamic surface cold front that are still expected to move into the forecast area Monday from the west. This looks to bring additional rain and snow to the region along with continued elevated winds. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in a cold front moving thru the forecast area Wednesday night thru Thursday night. Continued high confidence in this weekends weather becoming moderate in regard to the next weather event and cold front passage in the Monday time frame. Significant change to NBM PoP and weather grids this afternoon with the NBM coming in much too early with regard to the weather event Wednesday. Utilized various model blends and WPC guidance. NBM also coming in much lower than previous with snow amount. Manually edited to maintain the snow amount forecast previously which is in line with latest model diagnostics and ensemble model forecast snow amounts. Maintained NBM forecast elsewhere. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected at all terminals tonight and thru the day Wednesday. Breezes across northern NEvada will ease this evening, though southwesterly winds will become strong on Wednesday ahead of a strong surface cold front that will move thru the forecast area from the northwest beginning Wednesday night. Widespread wind gusts 25KT to 30KT or more will be present at all terminals. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Wednesday NVZ030. && $$ DISCUSSION...92 AVIATION...92  196 FXUS63 KGRB 142105 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 405 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a risk for strong to severe thunderstorms south of line roughly from Merrill to Carter to Amberg this afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds are the main hazards. There is also an isolated tornado threat mainly south of HWY 10. - Thunderstorms will lead to localized heavy rainfall, greater than 1", this afternoon and evening across central and east- central WI. This will lead to additional flooding concerns in urban, low-lying, and poor drainage areas through tonight. - Minor to moderate river flooding is ongoing or forecast to occur on several area rivers. Expect many rivers to rise this week due to additional rain and runoff from Upper Michigan, with the greatest impacts expected on the Menominee River, where some locations may see major flooding during the mid to late part of the week. - Additional rounds of rain and thunderstorms are expected at times Wednesday through this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 405 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Severe Storm Potential Late This Afternoon/Evening...A surface boundary (warm front) was orientated west-east just on the southern edge of the forecast area this afternoon. This boundary will gradually lift north into the southern portion of the forecast area this afternoon due to persistent southwesterly flow, ushering in moist, unstable air. The atmosphere will be primed across the southern portion of the forecast area with steep mid- level lapse rates, 50-60 kts of deep-layer shear, and around 1000 to 2000 J/kg of MUCAPE, supporting the potential for severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds being the main hazards. However, just along the southern portion of the forecast area, CAMs and current surface analysis indicate some surface- based CAPE of 1000 to 1500 J/kg, effective SRH of 100-200 m2/s2, and steep low-level lapse rates, favoring a tornado threat in addition to the large hail and damaging winds. After coordination with SPC and surrounding offices, a Tornado Watch was issued for Waushara, Winnebago, Calumet, and Manitowoc counties until 10 PM tonight (Tuesday). Depending on how far north the boundary lifts, the tornado threat could reach into the next northern tier of counties. PWATs of 1-1.25 inches are forecast with these storms, causing a risk of at least additional flooding in urban, low- lying, and poor drainage areas, and a risk of flash flooding, especially where ongoing flooding impacts from Monday evening's storms remain. Possible Dense Fog Tonight...Following this evening's showers and thunderstorms, models indicate low-level moisture/stratus expanding into the area from the northeast. Given the low-level moisture and the ongoing low-level moisture over the area already, fog is likely going to occur. Models indicate visibilities may drop as low as 1/4 mile at times. A Dense Fog Advisory may be needed late tonight into Wednesday morning. Rain and Thunderstorms Wednesday-Monday...A surface low is forecast to lift into the Upper Mississippi Valley Wednesday into Thursday, bringing another round of rain and possible thunderstorms. MUCAPE of 200-400 J/kg looks to stay confined to the southern portions of the forecast area leaving a marginal risk for severe storms. Although rainfall amounts with this system look less impressive, any additional rainfall will still add to the ongoing flooding risk. A more dynamic trough is slated to impact the region late Friday into early Saturday, bringing additional widespread rainfall and storms. The northward extent of greater instability is somewhat uncertain with this system, impacting severe weather potential, but this will be something to watch in the coming days. Cooler air will trail behind this system, which may bring potential for snow across the far north on Saturday associated with the wrap-around moisture from the main low pressure system. && .AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance Issued at 109 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A mix of MVFR and IFR cigs prevailed across the region early this afternoon, with the exception of LIFR cigs and 1/4 mile vsbys at MTW. These conditions are expected to continue until around 00z Wed. Low stratus with LIFR cigs with fog of 1/2 mile or as low as 1/4 mile will then expand across the area after 00z Wed reaching all terminals. Anticipate these conditions to continue through early Wednesday morning before gradually improving by the afternoon. Additionally, the next chances for showers and thunderstorms arrives around 23z at the central and east-central WI TAF sites. Confidence is highest for thunderstorms at the east-central WI TAF sites between 23z Tue and 02z Wed, which are expressed with TEMPO groups. A brief period of LLWS is also anticipated at the east- central WI TAF sites during this time as well. Lower confidence for showers and thunderstorms at the central WI TAF sites, so used PROB30 groups. Some of the strongest storms could produce large hail and damaging wind gusts. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 405 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Despite no precipitation falling from this morning through early this afternoon, several locations across east-central WI were still dealing with flooding impacts where a maximum of 4.5-5.5 inches of rainfall fell from Monday's storms along an axis from Stevens Point to Bonduel, with a more broad swath of 1-3" south of HWY 8. An additional 0.5-1" of rain is expected across east- central WI this afternoon/evening, which will only exacerbate flooding concerns. Runoff from snow melt in Upper Michigan is also still expected to bring moderate to possibly major flooding on the Menominee River, especially during the mid to late part of the week. If you live near a river or stream, keep a close eye on water levels this week and monitor the latest Flood Warnings from the National Weather Service in Green Bay. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for WIZ022-035>040-045- 048>050. && $$ DISCUSSION.....Kruk AVIATION.......Kruk HYDROLOGY......Kruk  219 FXUS66 KPQR 142106 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 206 PM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .SYNOPSIS...A strong frontal boundary will move across the CWA through tonight, bringing widespread rainfall to the coast and the inland valleys. This front will also push snow levels down towards 2000-3500 ft and bring heavy snowfall to the Cascades and portions of the Cascade Foothills. Due to the expected snowfall impacts for the Cascades, have issued some winter weather hazard products, which start early this evening. Behind the front showers return along with a 15-30% chance for thunderstorms starting late Wednesday morning through Wednesday night. Afterwards, concerns shift to cooler overnight temperatures and possible frost/freeze conditions to round out the week. After a brief stint of dry and warmer weather Saturday, precipitation chances return by early next week. && .SHORT TERM...Now through Wednesday night...Current radar and satellite observations this afternoon show widespread cloud cover with rain moving east and south across our CWA. The source of the rain and clouds is a low pressure system, that is slowly moving southeastward from the Gulf of Alaska and towards the Pac NW. As this system continues to trek towards the region, precipitation as well as cooler conditions will slowly start to take hold. This will result in widespread rain for the lower elevations and the coast, along with wet snow for the Cascades. QPF values have changed very little over the past 24 hours and generally show a 36 hour QPF totals through Wednesday night of 0.75 to 1.25 inches across the Willamette Valley and Portland metro, 1.00 to 2.75 inches along the coast and Coast Range, and 1.20 to 3.00 inches across the Cascades. However, for the latter region, especially at pass level, the precipitation will likely be falling as snow for a good chunk of this event. So, lets talk about snow. The incoming system looks to push snow levels down towards 2000-2500 ft by very early Thursday morning and given that a robust slug of moisture will accompany the cold air, that means that snow is in the forecast for the Cascades and parts of the Cascade Foothills. Focusing on the Cascades above 3500 ft, roughly 12 to 22 inches of snow accumulation is expected. This looks to start around 5PM this afternoon through early Thursday morning. Highest snowfall totals are expected mainly above 3500-4000 ft. As for the Cascade Foothills, the primary area in question is the Clackamas County Cascade Foothills. 1 to 4 inches of snow accumulation is expected, with the highest accumulations above 1500 ft, this includes Mt. Hood Village and Zigzag, OR. 1 inch or less for locations around 1000 ft, which includes Sandy, OR. The time of concern for the Clackamas County Cascade Foothills is from 3AM to 11AM Wednesday. The latest NBM probabilities show a 75-90% probability of 12 inches or greater snowfall over a 48 hour period from this afternoon through Thursday afternoon at Santiam level and Willamette Pass, slightly lower (35-45%) at Government Camp. Overall, the highest amounts likely fall in the high Cascades from Marion to Lane County. The period to watch as far the greatest travel impacts are will be from 3AM to 11AM on Wednesday when snowfall rates in the heavier precipitation bands right along the front may exceed 1-1.5 in/hr. So, if you are planning to travel over the Cascades passes, particularly Wednesday morning, please prepare for winter-like travel conditions. One other interesting facet of the forecast we're watching is the potential for 1-3 hr period of dynamic cooling temporarily punching snow levels into the 500-1500ft range near sunrise Wednesday morning. This has been a feature hinted at by the last several runs of the higher resolution guidance like the HRRR and NAMNEST right on the back edge of the cold-frontal boundary where persistent heavier precipitation combined with cold air just above the surface (-5C at 850mb) could facilitate this process, assuming all the proper variables align. The areas of particular interest are southwest Washington into the Portland Metro and the higher coast range/Cascade valleys. If this were to occur elevations as low as 500ft could see a rain/snow mix or "chunky rain" for an hour or two with no impacts. The chances for a light slush-up in the grass gets higher once you reach 1500ft, particularly in the Cascade foothills/valleys, but due to the warm antecedent conditions most impacts remain 2000ft+. Progressing through Wednesday a showery post frontal environment quickly overtakes the region coupled with increasing instability during the afternoon as the core of the upper level low moves over the region. Most models show Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) values peaking around 200 to 500 j/kg, with very little Convective Inhibition (CIN) around -5 to 10 j/kg. These conditions are resulting in a 15-30% chance for thunderstorm development within the post-frontal environment across the CWA. The main time period of focus is 11AM to 7PM on Wednesday when heating between shower bands may be maximized. Convective Allowing Model (CAM) soundings are showing a skinny CAPE profile and along with cooler temperatures aloft, this does support tiny hail/graupel development with any thunderstorms that develop and given that when spring time thunderstorms develop within our CWA, they have a tendency to produce a lot of tiny 0.10-0.25" diameter (pea size) hail. Also, while hail/graupel might blanket surfaces, it will typically not linger, once the cell that produced it moves out of the area. To summarize, any of these pop-up thunderstorms may produce moderate to heavy rain, infrequent lightning, small hail/graupel, along with gusty and erratic winds. So, when thunder roars, go indoors or when you see a flash (of lightning), dash inside. With the loss of daytime heating thunderstorm chances decrease Wednesday night although showers likely persist. /42-99 .LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...By Thursday, the upper level low and associated front have left the CWA, but will leave the region under cooler conditions with increasing clearing. Thursday into Friday looks to have overnight lows below normal bottoming out in the mid 30s across the lowlands and spelling a potential for frost. Below freezing temperatures are even forecast for the higher coast range/Cascade valleys, including the Hood River Valley. The latest NBM probabilities for temperatures below 36 degrees F Wednesday night into Thursday morning for the Portland/Vancouver Metro is 10-30% chance. From the Portland/Vancouver Metro areas southward towards Salem and Eugene, OR, expect a 15-75% chance. For locations north of Vancouver, expect a 15-60%. Additionally, there is a 80-95% chance of at least freezing temperatures in the Upper Hood River Valley for Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Similar conditions may develop again Thursday night into Friday morning, though with similar probabilities. Looking towards the weekend, temperatures gradually warm, reducing these morning frost concerns. Ensembles show a shortwave ridge of high pressure moving quickly overhead on Saturday, but being quickly followed by another low pressure system on Sunday originating from the Gulf of Alaska. Now, beyond Sunday and into the start of next week, WPC Cluster Guidance is favoring this low holding just off the OR/WA coast or moving over the inland Pac NW, which means that cooler and moister conditions are favored for the start of next week. /42-99 && .AVIATION...Westerly flow aloft ahead of an upper level trough today as a cold front pushes across the area with rainfall increasing later this afternoon through tonight. As of 20z, conditions remain a mix of MVFR and VFR with CIGS around FL025-FL035, along with rain reducing visibility at the coast to around 3-5 SM. Chances for widespread MVFR inland quickly increase to 50-70% later this afternoon/evening, after 00z Wed; while chances for IFR at the coast increase to around 30-40% around the same time. Southerly winds are also expected to remain breezy through this evening, with gusts up to 30 kt likely. The cold front is expected to slide southward across the area overnight, with winds behind the front shifting to the WNW and steady rain quickly decreasing, with the front exiting the area by 18z Wed. Conditions are likely (70-80% chance) to return to VFR by around 15z Wed, followed by increasing showers later Wed morning. KPDX AND APPROACHES...As of 20z, lower VFR CIGs with light rain. Conditions are expected to deteriorate as a cold front pushes increasing rain across the area. Probs for MVFR increase to around 60-80% by 00z Wed, and continue through at least 10-12z Wed. Southerly winds are expected to remain breezy with gusts up to 25-30 kt through at least 08z tonight. Around 10-12z Wed, expect the front to push through with west to northwest winds and a return to VFR conditions likely. /DH && .MARINE...Gusty southwest winds continue to increase this afternoon as a strong cold front approaches the coastal waters. Latest guidance increased winds enough to warrant a Gale Warning for the northern coastal waters, as well as the inner central waters and the Columbia River Bar. Expect southwest wind gusts up to 35 kt there, while elsewhere, widespread gusts to 30 kt is expected, with isolated gusts up to 35 kt possible, especially over the inner waters as the front impinges along the coast. The increased wind waves are expected to build seas to around 8 to 10 ft with a period of around 8-10 seconds. Seas remain steep and choppy through tonight. Behind the frontal boundary, expect an abrupt shift to the northwest as the front drops south overnight. Breezy northwest winds with gusts up to 20-25 kt continue through Wednesday as an area of low pressure drops along the Canadian coast toward the Puget Sound. This will also bring a 15-25% chance of thunderstorms over the waters through Wed evening. Seas are expected to persist at around around 8 to 10 ft on Wednesday, building slightly to around 10 to 12 ft Wed night as a northwest swell moves through the waters. The Small Craft Advisory remains in place into Thursday morning. High pressure then builds over the waters later this week as northerly winds return and seas gradually subside to around 3 to 6 ft Friday into Saturday. There is potential for another weather system to impact the waters later this weekend, possibly increasing winds and seas. /DH && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 11 AM PDT Wednesday for ORZ123. Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ126>128. WA...Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Thursday for WAZ211. PZ...Gale Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for PZZ210-251-252-271. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 5 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ210. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 5 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ251-252-271. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ253-272-273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland  896 FXUS61 KOKX 142115 CCA AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service New York NY 515 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The Small Craft Advisory on the ocean has been extended thru the day from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Well above normal temperatures through Friday. 2) Showers and thunderstorms possible through Friday, mainly each afternoon. 3) Strong cold front Sunday with temperatures returning to below normal Sunday night through Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... A large upper level ridge over the East Coast and Western Atlantic is providing for surface temperatures that are and will continue to be well above normal through Friday. High pressure to the southeast is allowing for a generally SW flow advecting in a warmer airmass that sits over the area this week. Given the generally ample sunshine expected today through Thursday, temperatures quickly rise each morning with overall highs in the 80s expected. Some locations in and around NE NJ and perhaps the NYC metro may approach 90 degrees each afternoon into Thursday. Highs closer to the coast will be a bit cooler, generally in the 70s, but uncertainty in temperatures along the coast remains a bit higher than normal as temperatures may exceed current forecast highs depending on subtle shifts in wind direction and speed due to a cold ocean. Temperatures generally begin to moderate a bit by Friday given more cloud cover with highs in the 70s and then even moreso into the weekend with highs in the 60s. .KEY MESSAGE 2... A stationary front well north of the area will generally the focus of several weak mid-level disturbances to push east over the next several days. This should be the main forcing mechanism for any shower and thunderstorm development. Each day, any showers or thunderstorms that develop to the north and west may approach the area into the later afternoon and evening, though uncertainty as to the coverage remains fairly high, despite a fair amount of instability for inland areas. The main threats for any thunderstorms are heavy rainfall but strong to damaging wind gusts remain possible as well, mainly today and Wednesday. As the front sags a bit further south late Thursday into Friday, more showery activity is expected rather than thunderstorms, though an embedded storm can't be ruled out. .KEY MESSAGE 3... A strong cold front is forecast to move through the region during Sunday, while there are still some timing difference, consenus is for a cold frontal passage Sunday afternoon. Showers will accompany the passage, with a chance of thunder as well. After a prolonged period of above normal temperatures, the cold front passage will return temperatures to several degrees below normal Sunday night through Tuesday. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Offshore high pressure will remain south of the terminals through the TAF period. Weak low pressure will move across upstate New York and New England late this afternoon into this evening, bringing a front closer to the area. Mainly VFR through this evening. A late afternoon/evening shower or thunderstorm will be possible. The best chances for thunder will be at KSWF, with just a shower at KHPN, the NYC terminals and possibly KBDR. Will leave out of the KISP and KGON TAF where confidence is low. Can not rule out a brief period of MVFR vsbys early Wednesday morning as some patchy fog may develop. Another round of showers/thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday afternoon, once again with the best chances north of NYC. South winds 10-15kt with gusts 20-25 kt this afternoon. Winds diminish to 10kt or less with more of a SW-W flow. Some of the terminals may even see wind go light and variable. Winds become S once again on Wednesday 10-15kt in the afternoon. Some gusts to near 20kt will also be possible. LLWS possible at KGON tonight, with WSW flow 40 kt at FL020. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Low chance of a shower reaching the NYC terminals. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... Wednesday through Friday: Mainly VFR, with chance of afternoon and evening showers/tstms each day, mainly NW of the NYC metros, with brief flight cat reduction to MVFR. SW winds could gust 15-20kt each afternoon Wed-Thu as well. Saturday: Mainly VFR. Easterly winds around 10kt. Sunday: Chance of showers and thunderstorms, with MVFR conditions possible. S-SW winds 5-15kt. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Small craft advisories that were in effect have been cancelled as wave heights have fallen below 5 feet. There may an occasional gust near 25 kt or a wave height near 5 feet into this evening but it will be short lived. Otherwise sub-SCA conditions expected on all the waters through Sunday. With the passage of a strong cold front Sunday, and high pressure building in from the west, westerly winds and gusts increase Sunday night, with SCA conditions developing on the ocean waters out to 20 nm by late Sunday night, and continuing into Monday. During Monday west to northwest gusts may reach advisory levels across the non ocean waters. && .CLIMATE... Daily record high temperatures that could be reached: Wed, April 15: KEWR: 88/1960 KBDR: 81/1960 KNYC: 87/1941 KLGA: 86/1941 KJFK: 80/2006 KISP: 78/2024 Daily record high minimum temperatures that could be reached: Tue, April 14: KEWR: 62/2014 KBDR: 54/2023 KNYC: 70/2023 KLGA: 67/2023 KJFK: 55/2023 KISP: 54/2022 Wed, April 15: KEWR: 60/2023 KBDR: 53/2012 KNYC: 67/1941 KLGA: 64/1941 KJFK: 58/1960 KISP: 56/2023 Thu, April 16: KEWR: 64/2002 KBDR: 53/2002 KNYC: 69/2002 KLGA: 68/2002 KJFK: 57/2002 KISP: 55/2012 Fri, April 17: KEWR: 68/2002 KBDR: 57/2002 KNYC: 74/2002 KLGA: 73/2002 KJFK: 60/2002 KISP: 61/2002 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MET/MW AVIATION...BC MARINE...MET/MW  979 FXUS66 KEKA 142117 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 217 PM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Rain will return tonight and continue into Wednesday, especially for the North Coast. Near freezing to freezing low temperatures expected to return late week. More rain possible late weekend. && .DISCUSSION...Tonight through Wednesday, an upper level trough moving into the interior PacNW will extend southward, leading to windy and rainy conditions for NW CA. Breezy southerly winds up to 30mph are possible for Del Norte and Humboldt counties. Del Norte and northern Humboldt, along with the King Range, is forecast to receive the most rain as the front rapidly moves southward and weakens. The current NBM indicates a 40 to 70 percent chance for 24 hour rainfall amounts greater than 1 inch for Del Norte County (the highest percentages are on windward facing, higher terrain areas). Northern Humboldt has a 60 to 80 percent chance for 24 hour rainfall totals of greater than 0.5 inches. Rainfall will be light with periods of moderate intensity for the Humboldt Bay area (70 to 80 percent chance for greater than 0.25 inches in a 24 hour period). Lighter rain intensity and totals are forecasted for Trinity and northern Mendocino counties. Less than a tenth of an inch is expected in southern Mendocino and Lake counties. As per usual, the mountain areas will have more rain than the surrounding valleys. The bulk of the colder air for this system is forecast to be in southern OR and NE CA. This means that snow levels are still expected to be ~5,000 feet for most of the precip, but may drop below 3,000 feet as the precip comes to an end Wednesday evening. As the frontal system continues southward, breezy west winds in excess of 30 mph are possible Wednesday evening in Lake County. Wednesday night into Thursday morning shows cold air moving over the area lowering snow levels down to 2,000 ft, leading to cold temperatures. The NBM is showing lows in the 20s in northern Lake, northeast Mendocino, and much of Trinity county. While this is certainly possible, fog and low clouds from the added moisture may develop in some of the valleys, limiting the radiational cooling. Thursday afternoon, clear skies and dry conditions are expected with a slight warming trend. This will likely set up Thursday night to be the coldest night as even the coast may see frost. Global models show another frontal system passing on Saturday night through Monday. At this point, model rainfall totals have risen slightly. Details of this system will continue to become clearer over the coming days. && .AVIATION...(18z TAFs)...An upper trough approaches Northwest California tonight, bringing widespread cloud cover. Most of the rain will affect terminals in Del Norte and Humboldt. Gusty southerly winds can be expected for coastal terminals of Del Norte and Humboldt and terminals in higher terrain areas. MVFR to higher end IFR ceilings may accompany heavier periods of rain very early Wednesday morning. Low VFR ceilings could be possible very early Wednesday morning for KUKI. && .MARINE...Winds continue to decrease today as the previous system continues to move inland and the next storm system approaches the Pacific Northwest. Winds will briefly turn out of the south starting today and into tonight ahead of the next frontal passage. A few areas in the north could see nearly small craft conditions ahead of the front. However, winds will sharply turn back out of the north as the front passes through the waters on Wednesday with small craft and possibly gale conditions developing Wednesday night into Thursday and Thursday night. /RPA && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... None. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png  175 FXUS66 KLOX 142124 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 224 PM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .SYNOPSIS...14/125 PM. Dry and warmer weather is expected for the remainder of this week. Gusty northerly winds will develop over much of the area on Thursday, shifting to northeast and becoming focused over Los Angeles and Ventura Counties on Friday. The next chance of rain will be next Monday. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...14/200 PM. Some gusty Sundowner winds expected across southwest Santa Barbara County this evening and a wind advisory is in effect there. Otherwise, just clear with cool temperatures overnight with lows mostly in the 40s, except 50s along the LA Coast. Another quiet day of weather on tap Wednesday with heights slowly rising following the departure of the recent storm. Daytime temperatures will increase 1-3 degrees but otherwise not much change from today. An upper low will take an inside track through the Great Basin Wednesday night into Thursday. Initially this will create gusty north to northeast winds through the mountains early Thursday morning. Will likely need some wind advisories for those. And some winds will filter down into the Santa Clarita Valley and northern portion of the San Fernando Valley as well as the Antelope Valley. That inside slider system will move into Utah Friday setting up a Santa Ana wind event across LA/Ventura Counties. Deterministic gradients are on the lower side, mostly under 4mb offshore, however many of the ensembles are as much as twice that and the NAM is showing 50kt of northeast wind at 850mb. And the lower res Euro ensemble is indicating 30-50mph winds across the typical Santa Ana wind areas. Expecting to see the deterministic solutions to nudge towards the stronger ensembles over the next day or two. So Friday should be a warm and dry day with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s and gusty Santa Ana winds across portions of LA/Ventura Counties. .LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...14/223 PM. Friday's Santa Ana is expected to mainly be a one day event, though offshore flow will linger into Saturday. Upper support will be mostly gone as well so any left over offshore winds will be isolated and of minimal impact. Temperatures will still be climbing Saturday, with some warmer valleys reaching the upper 80s intermediate areas like Downtown LA in the low to mid 80s. Most coastal areas will be in the upper 60s and 70s. On Sunday offshore flow will be turning onshore as another cold and at least partially cut off upper low approaches northern California. Still another warm day inland with highs in the 80s but cooler near the coast with an earlier sea breeze arrival. This is going to be a tricky system to forecast as models are struggling to figure out how far south it will move and at what speed. There is still a chance of rain Monday, though it could slip to as late as Tuesday or Wednesday, or miss the area all together. Cooler temperatures are expected through the first half of next week, though the rate of cooling will depend on the movement of the upper low. && .AVIATION...14/1445Z. At 1500Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer or inversion. For the 18Z TAF package, moderate to high confidence in current forecasts. Through this evening, high confidence in CAVU conditions for all sites. Late tonight, there is a 50% chance of LIFR/VLIFR conditions at KSMX, KSMO, KLAX and KLGB. Timing of this potential return is low. KLAX...Overall, moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Through this evening, high confidence in CAVU conditions. For late tonight, there is a 50% chance that CIG/VSBY restrictions do not develop. No significant easterly wind component is expected. KBUR...High confidence in 18Z TAF as CAVU conditions are expected through the period. && .MARINE...14/112 PM. For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Friday, high confidence in a combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas. On Thursday and Thursday night, there is a 40-50% chance of GALE force winds, mainly south of Point Conception. For Saturday through Sunday, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds. For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Thursday, high confidence in SCA level winds during the afternoon and evening hours. For Friday through Sunday, there is a 20-30% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours. For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Thursday night, high confidence in SCA level winds for the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel with winds and seas remaining below SCA levels elsewhere. On Friday, there is a 50-70% chance of SCA level northeast winds from Ventura south to Santa Monica and across the San Pedro Channel. For Saturday through Sunday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels for all areas. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT Wednesday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...MW AVIATION...RAT MARINE...RAT SYNOPSIS...MW weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox  057 FXUS62 KILM 142130 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 530 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... An Air Quality Alert has been issued for Horry County for fine particulates due to the large wildfire in southern Marion County. The AQA is in effect through tomorrow/Wednesday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Persistent dry weather and near-record warm temperatures may create fire weather hazards this week. 2) A cold front expected to arrive next Sunday will bring a low chance of showers and a cooler airmass early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Persistent dry weather and near-record warm temperatures may create fire weather hazards this week. A 500 mb ridge centered across Florida should expand northward over the next couple of days, leading to continued dry weather and above normal temperatures across the Carolinas. Ridging aloft will support Bermuda high pressure off the East Coast through the period. Dry soils and deep low level mixing will produce afternoon minimum RH in the low 30s or upper 20s. High temperatures have a reasonably good chance of reaching 90 degrees inland tomorrow, then exceeding 90 degrees on Friday and Saturday. Along the coast, south to southwest synoptic winds plus the afternoon seabreeze should keep high temperatures ~5 degrees cooler in Wilmington and ~10 degrees cooler at the beaches compared to inland areas. SPC has included a portion of the Carolinas in their Fire Weather Outlook tomorrow citing low humidity, a moderate southwest wind, and a unusually high Energy Release Component (ERC: an index utilizing fuel moisture to indicate how energetically heat will be released by burning woody fuels.) Similar conditions are expected through the weekend. Record highs coming up later this week: .............Wed Apr 15...Thu Apr 16...Fri Apr 17...Sat Apr 18 Wilmington......92 in 2006...90 in 2006...89 in 2006...93 in 1976 Lumberton.......92 in 2006...93 in 1941...91 in 2006...91 in 1941 Florence........94 in 2006...90 in 2006...93 in 2006...93 in 1981 N Myrtle Beach..90 in 2006...87 in 2006...87 in 1995...89 in 1976 KEY MESSAGE 2: A cold front expected to arrive next Sunday will bring a low chance of showers and a cooler airmass early next week. An upper trough pushing eastward across the Great Lakes Sunday will push a surface cold front into the Carolinas on Sunday. The latest GFS, Canadian, and ECMWF all show the front moving through during the afternoon hours, but also show only a tenuous and fading connection to any Gulf moisture. Precipitation along the front may be limited to just a smattering of showers or storms with 0-6 km bulk shear possibly too large for the limited moisture and instability present. Among the dozens of model ensemble members within the NBM, about 30 percent of them show at least .01" of rain across the area associated with Sunday's frontal passage. Increasing the PoP threshold to .10" cuts this to around 20 percent. This system appears unlikely to meaningfully alleviate deteriorating drought conditions across the area. The biggest impact from this front should be the arrival of a cooler airmass for Sunday night into Monday. Monday's predicted highs are in the low 70s, near to slightly below normal for mid April. && .AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR. Winds turn southerly and gusts increase this afternoon behind a sea breeze. Smoke from area wildfires could impact visibility on Wednesday morning, prior to late morning mixing deepens enough for any restrictions to become VFR haze. Confidence is low regarding the severity of restrictions. Extended Forecast... Predominantly VFR through the week due to high pressure. Only exception could be some MVFR or even IFR fog heading into sunrise each morning. && .MARINE... Through Wednesday... Summer-like Bermuda high maintains quiet conditions today and Wednesday. Near the coast, winds will be enhanced by an afternoon sea breeze and gusts up to 20 knots. Inlets could be choppy. Seas 2-3 feet, up to 4 on the 20 nm periphery of the forecast zone due to a lingering 3-foot easterly swell and southerly wind wave. Wednesday night through Sunday... Not much change in the marine forecast for the rest of the week with dry weather and the S to SW wind direction continuing, with speeds varying from around 10 kt during the mornings to as much as 15-20 kt nearshore during the afternoons and evenings due to daily seabreezes. 2-3 ft seas will consist of an east-southeasterly 8-9 second swell plus local 4-5 second wind waves. Next chance of low rain chances and SCA conditions arrives late Sunday into Sunday night with gusts up to 25-30 kt with a cold fropa. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Wednesday night for SCZ054-058-059. MARINE...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...VAO KEY MESSAGES...ILM DISCUSSION...ILM AVIATION...21 MARINE...MAS/21  501 FXUS66 KEKA 142132 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 232 PM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Rain will return tonight and continue into Wednesday, especially for the North Coast. Near freezing to freezing low temperatures expected to return late week. More rain possible late weekend. && .DISCUSSION...Tonight through Wednesday, an upper level trough moving into the interior PacNW will extend southward, leading to windy and rainy conditions for NW CA. Breezy southerly winds up to 30mph are possible for Del Norte and Humboldt counties. Del Norte and northern Humboldt, along with the King Range, is forecast to receive the most rain as the front rapidly moves southward and weakens. The current NBM indicates a 40 to 70 percent chance for 24 hour rainfall amounts greater than 1 inch for Del Norte County (the highest percentages are on windward facing, higher terrain areas). Northern Humboldt has a 60 to 80 percent chance for 24 hour rainfall totals of greater than 0.5 inches. Rainfall will be light with periods of moderate intensity for the Humboldt Bay area (70 to 80 percent chance for greater than 0.25 inches in a 24 hour period). Lighter rain intensity and totals are forecasted for Trinity and northern Mendocino counties. Less than a tenth of an inch is expected in southern Mendocino and Lake counties. As per usual, the mountain areas will have more rain than the surrounding valleys. The bulk of the colder air for this system is forecast to be in southern OR and NE CA. This means that snow levels are still expected to be ~5,000 feet for most of the precip, but may drop below 3,000 feet as the precip comes to an end Wednesday evening. As the frontal system continues southward, breezy west winds in excess of 30 mph are possible Wednesday evening in Lake County. Wednesday night into Thursday morning shows cold air moving over the area lowering snow levels down to 2,000 ft, leading to cold temperatures. The NBM is showing lows in the 20s in northern Lake, northeast Mendocino, and much of Trinity county. While this is certainly possible, fog and low clouds from the added moisture may develop in some of the valleys, limiting the radiational cooling. Thursday afternoon, clear skies and dry conditions are expected with a slight warming trend. This will likely set up Thursday night to be the coldest night as even the coast may see frost. Global models show another frontal system passing on Saturday night through Monday. At this point, model rainfall totals have risen slightly. Details of this system will continue to become clearer over the coming days. && .AVIATION...(18z TAFs)...An upper trough approaches Northwest California tonight, bringing widespread cloud cover. Most of the rain will affect terminals in Del Norte and Humboldt. Gusty southerly winds can be expected for coastal terminals of Del Norte and Humboldt and terminals in higher terrain areas. MVFR to higher end IFR ceilings may accompany heavier periods of rain very early Wednesday morning. Low VFR ceilings could be possible very early Wednesday morning for KUKI. && .MARINE...Winds continue to decrease today as the previous system continues to move inland and the next storm system approaches the Pacific Northwest. Winds will briefly turn out of the south starting today and into tonight ahead of the next frontal passage. A few areas in the north could see nearly small craft conditions ahead of the front. However, winds will sharply turn back out of the north as the front passes through the waters on Wednesday with small craft and possibly gale conditions developing Wednesday night into Thursday and Thursday night. /RPA && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Wednesday to 3 PM PDT Thursday for PZZ470-475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png  222 FXUS66 KSEW 142142 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 242 PM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .SYNOPSIS...A frontal system will continue to move across Western Washington through today with lowland rain, breezy winds, and mountain snowfall. Unsettled conditions continue on Wednesday. Drier, cool weather Thursday and Friday. A system will approach the area offshore over the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...A frontal system continues to move across western Washington this afternoon. Steady rain through this evening with a brief convergence zone progressing across central Puget Sound tonight. South winds will remain breezy, peaking this afternoon and evening. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for the Grays Harbor County coast, as well as Admiralty Inlet and Everett region, with gusts of 35 to 45 MPH in these areas. Winds remain breezy elsewhere, with gusts ranging 25 to 40 MPH. Increasing foliage will make trees more susceptible to damage, which may result in localized power outages. Snow levels around 4000 feet this afternoon will fall to 1500 feet by Wednesday morning, resulting in snow for the Cascades and Olympics, including the Passes. Snow will continue at times for the Cascades through Wednesday. Total snowfall amounts of 8 to 14 inches are expected for Snoqualmie and Stevens Passes, with locally higher amounts near 18" around White Pass and Mount Baker. A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect. Snow will subside Wednesday night. An upper low will move across the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday. This will result in colder temperatures aloft, and increasing instability. Scattered showers will be around Wednesday, with the threat for isolated thunderstorms. The probabilities for thunderstorms peak between 15 to 25 percent, primarily during the afternoon. Lightning, breezy winds, as well as small hail may accompany any heavier showers. Drier conditions will develop Wednesday night as conditions begin to clear for some areas. Temperatures by Thursday morning will fall into the low to mid 30s, resulting in potential frost concerns. Will also need to monitor freeze conditions for portions of south Sound. Otherwise, increasing sunshine is expected during the afternoon Thursday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...Weak upper ridging brings drier conditions on Friday. Will need to monitor the frost potential once again, mainly from Olympia southwards Friday AM. An upper low will track towards the west coast over the weekend. Uncertainty remains in ensembles in the location of the upper low by Sunday, which impacts the eastward extent of precipitation over the weekend. At this time, the highest probability for rain over the weekend is along the Olympic Peninsula, but precipitation chances extend through Puget Sound, especially by Sunday. The bulk of the energy then moves towards California by early next week, which may result in drier conditions for western Washington. However, slight chance of precipitation remains in the forecast at this time. A warming trend exists over the weekend with highs reaching the low to mid 60s. JD && .AVIATION...A frontal system will continue to push across the region today, with most locations seeing MVFR to IFR cigs with 3-6 SM visibilities in light to moderate rainfall. The front will reach the coast around 00Z Wed, moving inland across the area after 06Z. Behind the frontal passage, conditions should improve to VFR. Scattered showers will move in behind the front, and a convergence zone is expected to develop behind the front late this evening into Wednesday. It will likely start north of the metro then slowly move southward during the day Wednesday. Outside of these areas, expecting mostly VFR conditions with a broken cloud deck for much of the day. In these showers and the convergence zone, there will be a 15-25% chance for some of these to be thunderstorms (highest probabilities Wednesday afternoon), but currently there is not high enough confidence to include this in any of the TAFs at this time. Southwest winds 15-25 kt with gusts 25-35 kt will continue this afternoon as the front moves through. Winds will gradually taper overnight into Wednesday becoming south to southwest 5-10 kt through the overnight period. KPAE may temporarily change to N between around 03-12Z Tue. KSEA...MVFR conditions continue with low ceilings and temporary reductions in visibility in light to moderate rain. Rain will cease this evening behind the frontal passage at around 03-05Z Tue. Clouds should lift and break apart for low-end VFR conditions. MVFR conditions are then favored to develop early Wednesday morning before VFR conditions return late-morning and through the remainder of the day Wednesday. Scattered showers will continue throughout the day in the vicinity of the terminal. A post-frontal convergence zone is favored to develop overnight into Wednesday, but will likely stay north of the terminal until later in the day on Wednesday. 15-25% chance of thunder as well on Wednesday, through currently confidence too low to include in the TAF. S winds 12-15 kt with gusts 25-30 kt will continue until around 06Z Wed, after which winds will ease and begin to turn more SE overnight. SW winds prevail during the day on Wednesday at 5-10 kt. 62 && .MARINE...Stronger south winds continue through this evening as a weather system moves across the waters. Gale force wind gusts are expected at times for the Coastal Waters, as well as Puget Sound and Admiralty Inlet through this evening. SCA winds are expected for other waters into the evening. Onshore flow increases this evening into tonight with a strong westerly push through the Strait of Juan de Fuca. Gale Warnings have been issued for the central and eastern portions of the Strait of Juan de Fuca this evening into tonight, with gale force west wind gusts expected. Winds will slowly subside late tonight into Wednesday for the majority of waters. Northwest winds increase for the outer Coastal Waters late Wednesday before subsiding through Friday. Another weather system will approach the waters offshore over the weekend, resulting in increased southerly winds for the Coastal Waters. Seas will build to 9 to 12 feet this evening. Seas will remain around 8 to 10 feet Wednesday before building to 10 to 13 feet Wednesday night. Seas will subside Thursday through Friday. JD && .HYDROLOGY...No river flooding the next 7 days. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM PDT Wednesday for Cascades of Pierce and Lewis Counties-Cascades of Snohomish and Northern King Counties-Cascades of Southern King County- Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit Counties. Wind Advisory until 7 PM PDT this evening for Downtown Everett / Marysville Area-Island County-Lowlands of Western Skagit and Northwestern Snohomish Counties-Shoreline / Lynnwood / South Everett Area. Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for Olympics. Wind Advisory until 6 PM PDT this evening for Grays Harbor County Coast. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Wednesday for Grays Harbor Bar. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Wednesday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Gale Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for Admiralty Inlet. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for Puget Sound and Hood Canal. Gale Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for Puget Sound and Hood Canal. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm. Gale Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm- Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 5 AM PDT Thursday for Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm. && $$  922 FXUS65 KVEF 142158 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 258 PM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Clear skies and warming temperatures expected through tomorrow before gusty winds and cool temperatures return late-week. && .DISCUSSION...Through Monday. Temperatures will increase a few more degrees today and tomorrow as heights aloft increase. Tomorrow's highs will be within a few degrees of normal for mid-April, which for Las Vegas means highs in the low 80s. A change in the weather pattern arrives on Thursday as an area of closed low pressure, currently located off the coast of British Columbia, dives southeast into the Great Basin. The primary concern with this system is wind. Southwesterly prefrontal winds ramp up in the Mojave Desert while northwesterly postfrontal winds start to increase in the southern Great Basin on Thursday morning. These winds include gusts between 35 and 45 mph, the strongest of which should occur over high terrain. Winds remain elevated and gradually shift north on Thursday night as the front moves south. The strongest winds with this system are expected to occur on Friday in the Colorado River Valley as a favorable north to south pressure gradient develops. There is a greater than 80 percent probability of wind gusts reaching 40 mph in that area and a 40 to 50 percent probability of gusts reaching 58 mph in a localized area near Bullhead City. Will continue to monitor model trends and assess the need and timing of wind-related headlines. Besides wind, cold air and lowering heights aloft bring a 10 to 15 degree temperature decrease between Wednesday and Friday. Most moisture associated with this system remains the north of the forecast area, but there is a 20 to 40 percent probability of light precipitation in Lincoln County on Thursday and early Friday. Snow levels fall to between 2000 and 3000 feet on Thursday night as cold air moves in, meaning a dusting of snow cannot be ruled out. Temperatures will rebound and dry conditions return as ridging builds again this weekend, but breezy southerly winds may continue for some of the area. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Through Wednesday morning, winds will generally follow typical daily directional patterns with speeds remaining under 8KT. Late morning, winds are expected to settle out of the south around 8-10KT and then veer to the southwest becoming elevated and at least intermittently gusty late afternoon through early evening. Gusts to around 20KT can be expected, with these gusts diminishing quickly after sunset. Mid-level clouds this afternoon will clear out this evening, with clear skies expected through mid to late morning when additional clouds between 10-20kft begin streaming over the area. VFR conditions prevail. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Winds across the region will generally follow typical daily directional patterns with speeds around 5-10KT into Wednesday afternoon. Late in the period, southwesterly winds ramp up across the Las Vegas Valley, with sustained speeds increasing to around 12KT with gusts to 20-22KT expected on at least an intermittent basis. Additionally, across the western Mojave Desert, including KDAG, westerly winds will hover between 10-15KT through early morning, with a lull expected through mid afternoon when gusty winds return. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail with skies gradually clearing tonight before additional mid-level and high clouds arrive Wednesday. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Meltzer AVIATION...Phillipson For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter