487 FXUS63 KDDC 142200 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 500 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Red Flag Warning continues through early this evening on strong southwest winds and RH's down to 15% - Increased fire weather risk Thursday to at least Near-Critical conditions as dry south winds resume west of Highway 283. - A more significant Critical Fire day likely west of the dryline on Friday (especially west of Highway 283) with severe weather risk east of the dryline (15% combined severe outlook east of Coldwater to Great Bend line) - Sub-freezing temperatures likely Saturday and/or Sunday morning as cold air mass drives south behind significant spring storm system. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 114 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Spring storm system #1 of 2 continued its approach on the Central Plains, centered near the Utah-Colorado line as of 1730Z. The enhanced, larger scale upward vertical motion with the approaching wave will allow the dryline to sharpen across south central KS into OK by late afternoon/evening, and the dryline will be very close to the southeastern corner of our DDC CWA (southeastern Barber County) such that we will need to keep some slight chance POPs in for strong/severe storm potential -- especially if any left-moving splits off of any supercells across northern OK clips Barber County. Any convective threat should end by mid-late evening as the larger scale storm system continues its push east tonight. On Wednesday behind the storm, models have trended a bit deeper/farther south with the upper wave, such that low level pressure gradient will remain tight enough to keep west-northwest winds higher than previously forecast, thus have collaborated with neighboring offices to bump winds up above NBM baseline to NBM75th percentile with a little bit of 90th percentile influence much of the day (resulting in sustained wind forecast of 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts). On Thursday, the low levels will begin responding to the next storm system -- a larger scale system with deeper surface low which will fully mature by Friday. A much colder air mass will also be involved with Friday's storm up across the northern High Plains, which will drive south toward northwest Kansas Friday afternoon. Meanwhile, a reshaped dryline will develop across southwest/south central KS (likely positioned somewhere between Dodge City and Pratt) by late afternoon. A coupled upper level jet structure will take shape over the warm/moist air mass, allowing large scale forcing for ascent to result in further cyclogenesis/frontogenesis -- setting the stage for what looks to be a rather significant severe weather outbreak across the eastern half of Kansas and much of Oklahoma. The western edge/early development of this potential severe weather outbreak will likely include at least the eastern/southeastern one-third of the DDC CWA, and SPC has maintained a 15% outlook from roughly Coldwater to Great Bend and points east (higher 30% outlook just east of our DDC CWA). An intense cold front with very sharp temperature and significant pressure rises will move across western Kansas Friday evening, and models are certainly suggestive of at least a 1 to 3 hour period of potential high wind at the onset of frontal passage. The official forecast does not yet reflect this, but look for the wind forecast to continue to increase in strength (perhaps significantly) as confidence in timing and strength of the cold front increases. Fairly strong northwest winds will continue through at least the first half of Saturday behind the intense spring storm, but sensible weather will improve by later Saturday afternoon. Cooler temperatures will certainly be noticed with afternoon highs Saturday in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Given the expected magnitude of the cold air mass, we will have to watch for possible freeze headlines Saturday and/or Sunday morning. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 500 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR is expected through TAF pd. Gusty southwest winds will weaken 10-15 kt between 00Z-03Z tonight. Light southwest winds are expected through the overnight period. Winds will eventually become west to northwest through the day tomorrow. No major aviation impacts are expected through the next 24 hours. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090. Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for KSZ061>063-074>077-084>087. && $$ DISCUSSION...Umscheid AVIATION...Sugden  008 FXUS63 KLOT 142204 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 504 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Late spring to summer-like temperatures continue through Friday with highs in the 70s and 80s and lows in the 60s. - Significant all hazards severe weather threat this evening, particularly north of I-80. - Heavy rain and flash flooding threat from repeated rounds of thunderstorms tonight into Wednesday. - A brief break in the pattern is expected late Thursday into or through the day on Friday before another storm system arrives in the Friday evening to Saturday timeframe. - In the wake of the Saturday cold front, a brief, potentially sharp, shot of much cooler air could bring frost/freeze concerns into next Sunday and Monday. && .MESOSCALE... Issued at 505 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Convection has taken off over IN in advance of that subtle shortwave that brought some scattered showers and storms to our southern CWA. In the wake of this shortwave, there has been evidence of subsidence, both in satellite imagery and in the ILX 12z to 18z soundings. The 18z soundings from DVN and ILX both have MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg, but with a pronounced capping inversion on both soundings. That strong cap suggests that we it will likely be another couple-few hours before the threat of convection makes it into our area. Convection has been increasing in coverage across Wisconsin closer to the warm front as well as across central/eastern IA near the sfc low and south along the dryline. Strong deep layer shear and strong instability will continue to support supercells with potential for large to very large hail with this activity in the near term. Given the intense nature of the convection already, plus a glancing shot of synoptic ascent associated with a shortwave pass well to our northwest, this convection should survive and break through the capping inversion as it progresses east toward and across the MS River early this evening. As sunset approaches, developing nocturnal low level jet should result in a rapid increase in low level shear in advance of this convection across northern IL and southern WI. This will result in storms moving into a much more favorable environment for tornadoes, potentially strong as they get into southwest WI and northwest IL. By this point, there are uncertainties regarding storm mode, but the strong cap in advance of these storms could slow the upscale growth into a QLCS. If any well developed supercell(s) move into this environment the potential would exist for strong tornado(s) for at least a couple of hours. Eventually, there are indications that this convection should congeal into more of a QLCS with severe threat transitioning to more of a damaging wind with an attendant QLCS tornado threat. Given the very strong low level shear, the threat for a strong tornado or two could even persist even after the convective mode transitions to QLCS. It still appears the areas most at risk in our CWA is near/north of I-88/I-290 corridors. Given its current motion, the storms over IA may not reach our CWA until after 0100 or 0130z. - Izzi && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 312 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Through Wednesday night... The primary weather focus in the near term continues to revolve around the continued threat for a significant severe weather event this evening. This includes the threat of tornadoes, instances of very large hail (2"+ diameter) and damaging winds in excess of 70 mph. The threat of flash flooding is also of increasing concern tonight into Wednesday, due to repeated rounds of very heavy rain producing storms. A recent surface analysis indicates that the stalled west-to- east oriented frontal boundary continues to reside north of the area this afternoon, generally from northeastern IA eastward across southern WI. Meanwhile, the outflow boundary from this mornings convection has largely washed out, with a notable airmass recovery across northeastern IL, noted by temperatures rebounding into the low 80s amidst surface dewpoints in the mid 60s. Interestingly, while this afternoon's airmass recovery beneath a corridor of very steep mid-level lapse rates has resulted in moderate to strong MLCAPE values in excess of 3,000 j/kg, a notable capping EML inversion remains in place. This is apparent on the 18Z DVN RAOB, with a sharp EML inversion noted around 800 mb. While this cap is currently curtailing convective development, the sampled thermodynamic and kinematic environment is quite volatile and will be supportive of significant severe weather as we head through the evening. While some isolated to widely scattered supercells capable of producing large hail will be possible this afternoon as a subtle impulse continues to slide eastward across central and eastern IL into northwestern IN, the primary severe thunderstorm threat continues to be this evening, particularly across northern IL and southern Wisconsin. Initial severe storm development is expected near the stalled frontal boundary in northeastern IA within the next hour or two. In fact, current satellite and radar imagery indicate several convective attempts already underway in this area. As development occurs, storm modes will initially favor supercells, though a eventual upscale growth is anticipated through the evening. Very steep mid-level lapse rates and long straight hodographs will favor instances of very large destructive hail with these initial supercells. However, strengthening low- level flow and the associated enlarging low- level hodographs into early this evening will will support a notable tornado threat for a few hours this evening (6-9 pm). This tornado threat is expected to be the highest across far northern IL into southern WI (generally along and north of I-88). Upscale growth into a severe wind producing MCS, with potential embedded QLCS tornadoes is then likely to occur through the evening as this activity progresses eastward through southern WI and far northern IL. Accordingly, the main severe threats look to transition to damaging wind gusts in excess of 70 mph and isolated tornadoes later this evening. Increasingly confidence has prompted the recent issuance of a tornado watch for most of northern IL through this evening. While the severe threat should largely wane by midnight tonight, the threat for training showers and thunderstorms may continue across parts of northern IL into the overnight hours. A veering low-level jet overnight may set up favorable conditions for training and backbuilding storms as the flow offsets the easterly movement. This adds concern for flash flooding, particularly given that this activity could train over the urban areas of Chicago. At this time we have opted to hold off on a flash flood watch, though as trends become more clear this evening one may be needed. We did highlight the threat for possible flooding concerns in a Hydro outlook (ESF), but again, messaging may need to be ramped up to a Watch this evening. Additional waves of showers and thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday. The amount of cloud cover and periods of rain does make it unclear as to the extent and coverage of severe storms due to questions of diurnal destabilization. Nevertheless, a level 1 to 2 out of 5 severe weather threat continues on Wednesday afternoon and evening. Regardless of the overall severe threat, flooding and flash flooding will continue to be of concern Wednesday into Wednesday night, owing to the repeated instances of very heavy rainfall. Accordingly, a future flood watch may be needed for the tonight through Wednesday time period. Thursday onward... A short period of drier weather is expected late Thursday into Friday morning following the eastward departure of the mid- level impulse ejecting out of the Desert Southwest. However, yet another storm system and associated cold front is favored to shift across the central CONUS Friday night into Saturday morning. Locally, another threat of strong to severe thunderstorms will exist in advance of cold front, which should move across our area sometime Saturday morning. In the wake of this cold front, a period of much cooler weather will move in across the area Sunday into Monday. The magnitude of this colder airmass may result in freezing overnight low temperatures and afternoon highs only in the low 50s for Sunday. KJB && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1233 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Key Aviation Messages for the current TAF period: - Chance for showers and storms this afternoon, with another wave of showers and storms expected this evening, potentially becoming severe - MVFR/IFR conditions possible with any stronger storms, particularly this evening/overnight - Gusty southwest winds expected for much of the TAF period, though erratic directions and stronger gusts possible with any thunderstorms Regional radar mosaic shows showers have developed in southeast Iowa/western Illinois moving northeastward. While the sun is currently filtering through the BKN VFR cloud deck, showers are expected to move in this afternoon with a chance for embedded thunderstorms. Maintained a PROB30 for thunder this afternoon given the uncertainty on when/if thunder develops, but will amend as needed depending on radar trends. There are better chances for showers and thunder around and after 00Z this evening, thus converting the PROB30 to a TEMPO for this second round. Strong and potentially severe storms are possible during this wave. MVFR cigs are possible with IFR vis possible with the heaviest downpours. There is still a signal for showers and embedded thunder to drop down out of Wisconsin during the overnight. However, confidence still remains on the lower side depending on what develops this evening. Opted to maintain the -SHRA VCTS mention with MVFR conditions through just before daybreak. The threat for thunder diminishes tomorrow morning, but chances for rain and showers remain through the day tomorrow. DK && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago  605 FXUS65 KREV 142214 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 314 PM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Dry and seasonable with typical afternoon breezes today. * Strong cold front brings winds and chances for snowfall Wednesday into Thursday. Widespread hard freezes likely Friday morning. * Quiet weather and seasonable temperatures for the upcoming weekend, with active weather possible next week. && .DISCUSSION... Looking at current satellite imagery, there's just a few cumulus clouds across the region. Further north, we can see our next system moving into the Pacific NW. Temperatures today and tomorrow will remain fairly warm before they take a pretty hefty hit on Thursday. The main weather event that we're focused on this week is a cold front moving through Wednesday night into thursday morning. Winds ahead of the front Wednesday afternoon may gust up to 45 mph across western NV and NE CA. Stronger winds with a 50-80% chance of gusts exceeding 55 mph may be seen further north over northern Washoe County and Surprise Valley Wednesday afternoon. Current CAMs have the frontal passage along the Sierra Front (Reno, Carson, Minden) anywhere from 1AM to 5AM Thursday morning. During that time, we may see a brief burst of gusty winds (up to 45 mph) as the front is passing through. Otherwise, not much precipitation is expected with this front. From US-50 northward, there's about a 20% chance to see 2" or more, so 80% chance up to 2" in the higher elevations. Lower valleys like Reno, Fallon, and Susanville have a 30-50% chance to see a trace of snow. Timing on the precip will be 5-8PM Wednesday in Lassen County and northern Washoe County, 10PM-7AM for western NV and the Tahoe Basin, 7-9AM Thursday for Mineral County. Once this front passes through, it's going to leave us with some pretty chilly temperatures. Highs on Thursday will be in the low 40s in the Sierra and close to 50 in lower NV valleys. Then comes Friday morning. Better bundle up and preheat your car for Friday morning's commute. Low temperatures Friday morning will be below freezing(>90% chance) for most of the CWA. Locations that may be exceptions to this are Pyramid Lake, Walker Lake, and Chalfant Valley. High pressure sets in Friday through the weekend, allowing us to dry out and warm up back to seasonal averages. -Justin && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will continue today, except for KTRK which has a 20% chance to see FZFG again tonight. Westerly breezes with gusts 10-20kt are expected this afternoon for all terminals. A cold front will be passing through Wednesday night, creating some pre-frontal wind gusts in the afternoon up to 35kt. A wind shift from west to north will likely happen between 08-12Z Thursday morning for terminals around the Tahoe Basin and Sierra Front. There will be a 20-30% chance for light snow showers Thursday morning between 05-14Z, though accumulations will be minimal (60-70% chance up to 0.1"). -Justin && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Wednesday NVZ005. Lake Wind Advisory from 2 PM Wednesday to 7 AM PDT Thursday NVZ002. Wind Advisory from 2 PM Wednesday to 7 AM PDT Thursday NVZ004. CA...Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Wednesday CAZ070. Lake Wind Advisory from 2 PM Wednesday to 7 AM PDT Thursday CAZ072. && $$  990 FXUS63 KSGF 142220 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 520 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe storms are expected this evening into the overnight. Very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes will all be possible. The highest risk is in far southwest Missouri/southeast Kansas and along/north of I-44. - Additional severe weather potential Wednesday afternoon and evening, and again Friday afternoon and overnight into Saturday. - Marginal excessive rainfall concerns through the week in areas that see repeated strong storms and/or training precipitation. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 256 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 It's breezy out there today as the trough pushes into our area and the surface pressure gradient remains tight. Southwest winds have been observed at 20-25 mph with gusts 30-35 mph. Temperatures have climbed into the upper 70s to low 80s despite a good amount of cloud cover. There are a few hours of warming left, so we're still on track to reach the predicted highs in the 80s today. The low encroaching on western Missouri has an attendant dryline that extends south and west across western Oklahoma and down into Texas. Convective initiation is expected along this dryline in the next couple of hours. Headed into the evening, these initial supercells are expected to line up as they move east-northeast across Kansas and Oklahoma on their way to us. The northeastern-most end of the line will reach us first, and may feature some development out ahead in west-central Missouri as early as 5-6 p.m. The main line looks to reach our area closer to 7-8 p.m., moving generally west-to-east with a northeast component. These supercells will look very scary as they move through Oklahoma, where they will be riding a moisture/instability gradient and tapping into all the moisture and warmth that has streamed into the region with the last several days of southerly flow. However, as they move eastward into our area and out of the better instability, they will become less organized/discrete. They are still very much expected to be severe, just not as severe as what may be seen in central Oklahoma, so keep this in mind when monitoring upstream. The stronger/more discrete cells in the line will be capable of very large hail up to 2-3", damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph, and tornadoes (particularly in our Kansas counties). With the line as a whole/line segments, hail up to quarters and damaging winds will be possible. Again, storms decrease in severity as they move east due to the loss of daytime heating and storms quickly gobbling up the favorable environment. The area with the highest risk for these hazards (SPC Slight risk, level 2/5) is roughly the northwestern half of the CWA, or a Cassville-Springfield- Lebanon-Vichy line. The severe risk will come to an end in the early morning hours, but there will be little break in the rainfall as a cold front impinging on the dryline from the west continues to force precipitation in eastern Oklahoma that tracks northeast into SWMO. Wednesday will be rainy and dreary the majority of the day. The dryline/cold front situation makes a final push Wednesday night, and should have just enough oomph from 1000-3000 J/Kg of MLCAPE, 30-50 kts of shear, steep lapse rates, moisture, and all a severe storm's favorite things to bring another round of severe convection in the afternoon and evening. All severe hazards will be possible with this activity as well, and the risk will end after midnight. With the multiple rounds of rain, one might wonder about the flash flood risk. While there is a marginal risk for excessive rainfall Tuesday and Wednesday, given that the expected storm total QPF forecast over the course of two days still remains lower than 1-hr flash flood guidance, it would take hours worth of training and/or strong cells to create a flash flood hazard. This risk is considered secondary to the hail/wind/tornado risk both days. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 256 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The cold front lifts to the north rather than moving through Wednesday night, keeping us in the southerly flow regime for the time being. Rain will gradually end from west to east Thursday morning, and we'll enjoy some sunshine in the afternoon with highs in the low 80s. The winds settle down as well, with no disturbances nearby for the first time in several days. Friday, a deep trough finally pushes a cold front through the area. This looks like a very classic severe setup, and we are included in an Enhanced equivalent (level 3/5) outlook from the SPC. Based on the expected environmental conditions, supercells capable of large hail and tornadoes are expected for our area, which grow upscale into a squall line as they progress toward the Mississippi valley. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 520 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Cumulus clouds have developed across the region with cloud bases around 3500 to 5000ft this afternoon and will remain over the area this evening. Mid and high level clouds will also increase across the area this evening. Convection is developing in north central Texas and south central Oklahoma early this evening and additional convection development is expected to develop across Kansas this evening. This activity will move northeast this evening and tonight. Convection could move into the area as early as the mid to late evening hours, with additional convection possible tonight into Wednesday. Another system will then start to move east on the area on Wednesday with additional storms expected across the area possibly as early as Wednesday afternoon but more likely Wednesday evening just after this TAF period. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Record High Temperatures: April 14: KVIH: 87/2006 KUNO: 86/2024 April 15: KUNO: 84/9999 April 17: KSGF: 87/1937 KVIH: 86/2004 KUNO: 87/2006 Record High Minimum Temperatures: April 14: KSGF: 67/2006 April 15: KSGF: 63/2006 April 16: KSGF: 66/1963 April 17: KSGF: 66/1976 && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Nelson LONG TERM...Nelson AVIATION...Wise CLIMATE...Camden  446 FXUS65 KRIW 142237 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 437 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light snow shower chances (20%) exist through 6PM MDT across the western mountains, the Bighorns, and Casper Mountain. - A potent winter storm system is forecast to bring widespread precipitation, wind, and freezing temperatures to the entire area beginning late Wednesday until Friday evening. Confidence in measurable snowfall continues to increase for low elevations. - There is high (90% +) confidence in a hard freeze (28 degrees or below) across low elevations Friday morning and Saturday morning, with the potential for widespread lows in the teens on Saturday morning. && .UPDATE... Issued at 100 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Today's weather is on track to be the last tranquil day across the area before the upcoming weather system. Weak flow with relatively dry mid-level air will be present behind the departing trough and allow for mostly sunny skies this afternoon. Expect highs to be in the 60s east of the Divide and in the 40s to 50s west of the Divide. As mentioned in the morning discussion, isolated light snow shower chances (20%) exist this afternoon across higher elevations as a weak disturbance traverses the state. Breezy conditions are expected west of the Divide as this disturbance passes over this afternoon. All attention continues to be focused on the upcoming winter weather system that is forecast to impact the region Wednesday night through Friday. This system, a strong cold front, is expected to bring widespread wind, precipitation, and cold. As the trough and associated cold front makes its way into the northern Rockies on Wednesday, expect strong southwest winds Wednesday afternoon as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the cold front. Frequent wind gusts of 25 mph to 40 mph can be expected across most of the area and result in elevated fire weather conditions. Relative humidity values are expected (70-90%) to remain above 20 percent. The first push of the winter weather arrives across western Wyoming Wednesday afternoon. Across the western mountains, the most likely period of heavy snow will occur early Wednesday evening through midday Thursday as the cold front makes its push east. Snow totals have also trended up across the Wind River Mountains beginning Wednesday evening, so this area has been added to the Winter Storm Watch. Precipitation will then spread east across the rest of Wyoming Thursday afternoon, most likely as rain. The cold push currently looks to not arrive until after sunset on Thursday for most low elevations. Thanks to strong cold air advection, this will feel like a good punch of cold behind the front with 700mb temperatures rapidly dropping from positive 2 celsius to near negative 10 celsius in a matter of hours. This strong northerly push will also result in gusty winds, especially near Buffalo where there is an 85% chance of 45+ mph gusts. Given the moisture content with this system and the cold temperatures, there is fairly high confidence (80%+) in most low elevation areas seeing measurable snowfall by Friday morning. However, no highlights will be issued at this time for locations east of the Divide due to the greatest impacts occurring in 2+ days (Thursday night into Friday midday). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 145 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Finally a more active pattern across Wyoming trying to bring precipitation! The latest system is a trough ejecting into the central Plains from the Four Corners region. This system is set a little too far south to bring a significant amount of precip, but still enough energy to produce precip for areas of Casper Mountain, the Bighorns, and higher elevations of the Tetons. But this does set the table for a potent late winter storm diving out of the PacNW into the northern Rockies. This system starts to spread precip into the NW mountains during the day Wednesday before slowly moving east Thursday and Friday. The system will be accompanied by ample moisture, so the potential for meaningful accumulations is improving. The system will also be accompanied by a strong push of colder air, so most precip will be snowfall, especially Thursday night into Friday. This includes most of the lower elevations as well, with the current forecast totals of 2 to 5 inches. Winter Storm Watches have been posted for the northwestern Mountains and YNP for this system, and may need to be expanded is the snow forecast increases with later updates. The other concern with this next system is the significant cold air push coming with and behind the next system. Cold temperatures will arrive during the day Thursday, with lows Thursday night in the low to mid 20s east of the Divide and in the teens west of the Divide. The main core of the cold air then settles in on Friday, with the core of the cold air setting in Friday night. Probabilities of temperatures falling below 28 degrees are high (>90%), with current forecast lows reaching the teens. The complicating factor will be how quickly cloud cover clears out behind the weather system, allowing for radiational cooling. If clouds hold longer, these teens would likely not be achieved. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 436 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals through the TAF period. Some clouds have begun to develop across western terminals with clearing expected overnight. A nearing disturbance will start to usher in more cloud coverage and lower ceilings for Wednesday morning. Wind should gradually decrease by sunset across all terminals with KRIW, KRKS, and KCOD being the only exceptions. These terminals are likely to see breezy wind of 15 to 25 knots linger through about 06-07Z Wednesday. Wind will begin to increase across all terminals by the mid to late morning Wednesday. Widespread gusts of 20 to 30 knots will be possible beginning late morning Wednesday into the end of the TAF period. Terminals should remain dry through the period with KJAC possibly seeing some showers developing around 18Z into the end of the period. Mountain obscuration will likely increase late Wednesday morning across western ranges ahead of an incoming weather system. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday evening through late Thursday night for WYZ001-002-012. Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday evening through Friday afternoon for WYZ014-015. && $$ UPDATE...Gerhardt DISCUSSION...Straub AVIATION...Dziewaltowski/Rowe  754 FXUS62 KFFC 142239 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 639 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New 00Z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 635 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - A Fire Danger Statement remains in effect for north and central Georgia through this evening. Fire weather concerns will persist this week given the ongoing very dry and warm conditions. - Temperatures will remain well above normal through Saturday. Some daily record highs may be broken. - Appreciable rainfall is very unlikely through this coming weekend, so worsening drought conditions are expected. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 223 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Expansive ridging remains in place through midweek, keeping things high and dry. Temperatures will remain well above normal, and forecast highs are at or within a couple of degrees of daily record highs at the four main climate sites (ATL, AHN, MCN, CSG) on Wednesday. Fire danger continues to be a concern, discussed further in the "Fire Weather" section below... && .LONG TERM... (Thursday morning through next Monday) Issued at 223 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Staying Warm, and Dry for Most through Saturday: The extended periods begin right where the short term leaves off with dry and warm conditions continuing. With zero precip chances Thu, Fri, and Sat, temps expected to rise well above seasonal norms with highs in the middle 80s to middle 90s across north and central GA. The models are showing the ridge over the region weakening Sat as a weak frontal boundary nears NW GA Sat night. the biggest issue is the atmosphere is extremely dry ahead of this front so as it pushes into GA it dries out and most of the area will only see increased cloud cover. Portions of NW GA will see some light showers Sat night into Sun morning but only expecting 0.1" to 0.25" total for area North and West of Carrollton, to Atlanta, to Gainesville line. Unfortunately, even with this frontal boundary moving through it is very likely not going to support the coverage and amount of rainfall necessary to put a dent in the Severe (D2) to Extreme Drought (D3) that covers much of the CWA. The front is expected to move south and east of the area Sun night bringing in a cooler airmass for the beginning of next week. Temps Mon morning will be down into the 40s with highs Mon mainly in the 70s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 635 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR through period. Skies mostly clear with few cu 5 - 7kft to few cirrus. Winds calm to light and vrb becoming SW at 3 to 8 kts after tmrw morn. Return to light winds tmrw night. //ATL Confidence...00Z Update... High confidence all elements. SM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 58 88 61 87 / 0 0 0 0 Atlanta 61 87 63 86 / 0 0 0 0 Blairsville 54 83 56 83 / 0 0 0 0 Cartersville 57 87 59 87 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 58 88 59 87 / 0 0 0 0 Gainesville 60 86 62 85 / 0 0 0 0 Macon 57 89 60 88 / 0 0 0 0 Rome 56 88 59 87 / 0 0 0 0 Peachtree City 57 87 58 86 / 0 0 0 0 Vidalia 60 91 61 91 / 0 0 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...SM  121 FXUS64 KHGX 142252 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 552 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and humid conditions continue through the end of the week. Heat index values in the 90s at the end of the work week. - Rain chances increase over the weekend as a cold front moves into the region. - Seasonal conditions expected in the wake of the front going into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 220 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A southwesterly flow pattern aloft remains prevalent across the region between an upper level ridge over the Gulf and an upper level trough lifting across the vicinity of the Four Corners. A persistent southerly to southeasterly surface flow also continues between ridging over the southeastern U.S. and adjacent Gulf and a trough of low pressure over the Plains. A resultant warm and muggy pattern continues with partly to mostly cloudy skies and temperatures mostly in the lower to mid 80s this afternoon. Very weak lift associated with the persistent southerly to southeasterly flow could result in a few sprinkles or a light rain shower this afternoon into early this evening, but the overall chance of measurable rainfall remains less than 10% through tonight. The upper level trough will move across the central Plains on Wednesday. The bulk of moisture and lift within the southwesterly flow aloft ahead of this system will remain to our northwest and north over central and northern portions of the state of Texas, where better chances of showers and thunderstorms will be favored Wednesday afternoon into early Wednesday evening. An isolated shower or thunderstorm may develop as far south as the Brazos Valley or Piney Woods Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening, but coverage looks to remain less than 20%. The warm and humid weather pattern will continue through the middle to latter part of the week underneath the persistent southwesterly flow aloft, along with continued southeasterly to southerly surface flow. The probability for measurable rainfall remains around 10% or less through Friday. The next large scale trough is still forecast to translate over the central and northern CONUS on Saturday. A potent shortwave rounding the base of this feature will quickly clip across the central Plains into the Upper Midwest Friday through Saturday afternoon. An associated cold front is forecast to push through Southeast Texas Saturday afternoon and evening, bringing a wind shift to the north. Increased ascent with shortwave impulses embedded with west- southwest flow aloft and also along the cold front will bring an increasing chance (up to 40-60%) of showers and thunderstorms to our forecast area Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Rain chances currently look to diminish going into Sunday morning, though a few showers could persist along our southern and southwestern zones. Temperatures will trend cooler behind the front with lows on Saturday night forecast to range in the 50s over our central and northern counties and in the lower 60s along the coast. Highs on Sunday look to range in the lower to mid 70s. Another shortwave impulse embedded within zonal flow aloft may bring another low (20- 30%) chance of showers and thunderstorms to portions of our area on Monday. The relatively cooler temperatures otherwise look to continue Sunday night into Monday with overnight lows in the 50s inland to 60s along the coast, with highs on Monday afternoon forecast to range from around 70 degrees to the mid 70s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 552 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Gusty southeasterly winds will continue over the next few hours and gradually decrease after sunset this evening. Intermittent periods of MVFR ceilings are already ongoing across the region, but will become increasingly widespread overnight into Wednesday morning. Ceilings lift back to VFR by the late morning/early afternoon with another round of gusty southerly to southeasterly winds. Expect sustained winds in the 10-15 kt range with 20-25 kt gusts through the afternoon. Sporadic light showers will be possible in the late morning/early afternoon, but the probability is not high enough to include it in any of the TAFs. Additionally, there is low-end potential for a shower/storm in the late afternoon/evening around CLL from convection developing out in west/central TX. Another round of MVFR ceilings expected Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Batiste && .MARINE... Issued at 220 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A moderate onshore flow will generally continue through the week and small craft operators will need to exercise caution at times. The persistent onshore flow will keep water levels elevated through the week with values up to 2.5-3.0 ft above MLLW around times of high tide. The onshore flow and increased water levels may result in wave run-up along Gulf facing beaches as well as an increased risk of rip currents. A cold front with an associated chance of showers and thunderstorms will push offshore late Saturday into early Sunday. Strong offshore winds and increased seas will likely prompt the issuance of Small Craft Advisories by late this weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 68 84 69 88 / 0 10 10 0 Houston (IAH) 70 84 70 88 / 0 10 0 10 Galveston (GLS) 73 79 72 80 / 0 10 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Wednesday morning for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375. && $$ DISCUSSION...Lindsey AVIATION...Batiste MARINE...Lindsey  420 FXUS62 KJAX 142257 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 657 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Moderate Risk of Rip Currents For Area Beaches Today and - Extreme to Exceptional Drought Continues. Dry & Warmer This Week. Critically Low Minimum Humidity Values inland each day. Dry Conditions Will Support Increase Risk of Fire Spread - Fog Potential Each Morning through Friday && .UPDATE... Quiet weather continues with large diurnal ranges in temperature with the dry air in place. Patchy fog, though likely shallow in nature, is expected to develop along the coast where a sufficiently moistened (by the sea breeze) airmass will be. Lows again will rang from the mid 50s to low 60s. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... Main Highlights Today and Tonight: - Near record warmth inland areas with highs upper 80s/near 90F - Locally dense fog possible during late night/early morning hours - Moderate rip current risk at NE FL/SE GA beaches Dry, sunny, and warm weather continues today with high pressure dominating over the area. This morning's sounding and current GOES- 19 Total Precipitable Water analysis shows PWATs around 0.6" today. Elevated fire danger persists today with low minimum relative humidity values over inland locations. High temperatures will range today, with an onshore breeze keeping coastal temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s, hotter as you go inland with some locations reaching 90 degrees today before the Atlantic sea breeze pushes inland later this afternoon. Enough moisture coupled with calm winds overnight will prompt inland fog development over most of northeast Florida and southeast Georgia, with highest chances for patchy dense fog just west of I-95. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Fog potential each morning especially inland - Dry & warm weather persist Surface high pressure centered over Bermuda will continue to extend WSW across the FL peninsula as upper ridging remains over the SE US Wednesday into Thursday. Dry conditions, sunny skies and above seasonable temperatures are expected under strong subsidence. Highs will range from the upper 70s/low 80s along the coast to the upper 80s/low 90s inland. Fire risk will remain elevated with the dry conditions and very warm temperatures. The only other noteworthy weather impact will be patchy to areas of fog inland each morning, with patchy "superfog" possible near smoke from any ongoing wildfires. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s to low 60s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: - The dry weather will persist, with potential record highs Fri/Sat - Morning fog potential to continue each day. Friday, mid level trough will pass north of the region with west to southwest flow and dry, sunny conditions as the Atlantic seabreeze remains closer to the east coast. Saturday, stacked ridging returns over the FL peninsula with weak southerly flow allowing both Gulf and Atlantic seabreeze to move inland. By Sunday, a deeper mid to upper level trough will move across the deep south, pushing a cold front into the area Sunday night. However, moisture will be limited resulting in a dry frontal passage. Breezy northeast winds and another dry airmass develop in the wake of the front for early next week. Record high temperatures into the low 90s expected Friday and Saturday with isolated mid 90s over the interior, cooling slightly Sunday into the upper 80s, and then to near normal levels behind the cold front Monday. Lows will be a little above normal during the period cooling to near normal Monday night. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Predominantly VFR conditions forecast, though patchy and shallow fog may develop at coastal airfields as wind calms, leading to temporary restrictions to IFR through 12z. Light diurnal winds will begin with a southwesterly flow at or below 10 knots, shifting east to southeasterly through around 10 knots with the sea breeze. Expect the sea breeze wind shift around 17z at the coast, 18z at KCRG, and around 19z at KJAX and KVQQ with gusts around 15 knots. && .MARINE... High pressure ridging will be the prevailing feature through mid to late this week, with flow gradually shifting more southeasterly to southerly over the next several days. Next frontal passage is expected Sunday Night with potential for Small Craft Advisory conditions on Monday. Rip Currents and Surf: Solid Moderate Risk of Rips will continue for NE FL/SE GA beaches in the SE/onshore flow the rest of the week with surf/breakers mainly in the 2-3 ft range. && .FIRE WEATHER... - Low Inland Min RH Values Each Day This Week High pressure over the area will create dry, sunny, and very warm conditions inland through the weekend. This, combined with the exceptional/extreme drought, will continue the elevated fire risk across the area. Critically low Min RH values inland will repeat each afternoon lowering to the mid 20s to low 30s into Saturday. Wind flow pattern will prevail from the southeast Wednesday, south on Thursday, southwesterly Friday with the Gulf seabreeze moving further inland and the Atlantic seabreeze staying closer to the coast. Dispersions remain in the good range through the week. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy inland fog will develop each morning this week. There will be potential for Localized "superfog" each morning near the vicinity of any smoke from ongoing wildfires. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures at NE FL/SE GA climate sites: April 15: JAX 90/2006, CRG 91/2001, GNV 92/1936, AMG 91/1954 April 16: JAX 90/1972, CRG 91/2011, GNV 90/1967, AMG 92/1967 April 17: JAX 93/1967, CRG 90/2006, GNV 90/1945, AMG 91/1967 April 18: JAX 94/1967, CRG 89/2018, GNV 91/1967, AMG 92/1967 April 19: JAX 92/1995, CRG 91/2013, GNV 94/2011, AMG 91/1968 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 58 90 59 90 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 62 79 63 80 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 58 86 59 88 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 60 81 60 83 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 57 89 57 90 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 57 87 57 88 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None. && $$  632 FXUS64 KBMX 142259 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 559 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 554 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026 - Fire danger will remain elevated through the week due to recent dryness, low relative humidity values, and increased winds at times. Outdoor burning is highly discouraged. - Near-record high temperatures are expected each day this week with only minimal rain chances in the forecast. Drought conditions will worsen. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 1225 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026 A broad 590dam mid-level ridge is in place over Florida today with a Bermuda High at the surface with axis extending west through the Deep South. This stubborn setup continues to deflect the active weather to our north and west, leaving us with sunny/mostly clear conditions and warming temperatures. As we progress through the week, a shortwave trough and associated weak cold front will attempt to advance into the area as a surface low tracks across the Great Lakes region on Thursday. Forcing along the front will be weakening with eastward extent and the lack of moisture across the area will only result in maybe a few sprinkles or light showers in our far northwest, but really nothing appreciable as the ridge looks to maintain dominance through the end of the week. In fact, a few areas will warm to near record highs on Friday. A stronger system will rotate across the Upper Plains on Saturday then lift across Ontario on Sunday. This longwave trough should do a better job of dampening the ridge across the Southeast, and chances continue to look favorable for at least medium chances of rain and some thunderstorms across the northwestern half of Central Alabama Saturday night into Sunday morning as another cold front moves into the region. Once again, however, the front will be moving into less favorable conditions (less available moisture) with eastward extend. Therefore, the greatest chances of seeing measurable rainfall will be focused in areas generally northwest of I-20/59 where there are low to medium chances of rainfall amounts up to 0.5" with much lesser amounts forecast to the southeast of there. The front will move east of the area by Sunday afternoon with a more seasonable to even slightly below average temperature profile expected to start next week as dry conditions resume. Expect drought conditions to continue to deteriorate across Central Alabama with some locations forecast to experience rapid onset drought due to the lack of meaningful rainfall in the forecast. In association with this, fire danger will remain elevated, and outdoor burning is discouraged. 86/Martin && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 554 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026 VFR conditions prevail through the majority of this TAF cycle. The one exception will be a brief period of MVFR vis at TCL around sunrise. We have seen this develop the last couple mornings so would expect this to happen once again since we have not seen a pattern change. Otherwise, light winds overnight will increase to around 10 knots through the morning hours tomorrow. 95/Castillo && .FIRE WEATHER... Elevated fire danger conditions will be a concern daily as we head through the week. MinRHs today and Wednesday will drop into the 25-35% range. Winds will be a bit breezy with gusts from 10-15 MPH. Outside of a low chance of rain across our northwest areas, dry conditions will remain in place through the work week. A cold front is forecast to move through Saturday night, which will bring a low to medium chance for showers and storms. It will also lead to increased fire weather concerns late this weekend into early next week as much drier air moves back into the region. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1102 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026 Record High Temperatures: April 14: KBHM: 89/1981 KEET: 85/2017 KANB: 89/1981 KTCL: 88/2003 KMGM: 89/1972 April 15: KBHM: 88/1936 KEET: 85/2012 KANB: 89/1972 KTCL: 88/1972 KMGM: 91/1972 April 16: KBHM: 89/1977 KEET: 84/2013 KTCL: 90/1955 KMGM: 90/1925 April 17: KBHM: 90/1955 KEET: 86/2013 KTCL: 92/1955 KMGM: 90/1955 April 18: KBHM: 91/2006 KEET: 90/2006 KANB: 90/1955 KMGM: 91/2006 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 54 86 56 85 / 0 0 0 10 Anniston 57 86 58 85 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 60 86 61 85 / 0 0 0 10 Tuscaloosa 57 85 59 85 / 0 0 0 10 Calera 57 86 58 85 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 59 85 59 85 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 56 87 58 87 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 56 86 57 86 / 0 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...86/Martin AVIATION...95/Castillo