979 FXUS65 KPSR 142300 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 400 PM MST Tue Apr 14 2026 .UPDATE... Updated Aviation && .KEY MESSAGES... - Weak high pressure will settle over the region through the middle portion of the week providing warming temperatures and dry conditions. - Breezy to locally windy conditions will return for the back half of the work week with elevated Fire Weather conditions focused around the Lower Colorado River Valley - Widespread above normal temperatures are expected by the end of the weekend and the start of next week with readings warming into the low to mid 90s. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Positively titled troughing has begun to push out of the Desert Southwest with the center of this feature now located near the Colorado/Utah border. However, the trailing axis still extends down through much of Arizona, keeping negative height anomalies overhead. This cooler airmass, combined the dry air that moved in behind the Monday night cold front will provide a very pleasant day across the region has temperatures are expected to run around 5 degrees below normal for this point in April. That translates to highs for the lower deserts from the upper 70s to lower 80s, while higher terrain readings will be closer to the upper 60s to lower 70s. Low amplitude ridging will build in the wake of the exiting system, providing at least a modest warm up for Wednesday with highs rebounding back to right around normal. Afternoon readings for lower desert locales will be generally in the middle to upper 80s, with perhaps a few spots, mainly out in SE California seeing a return to the 90s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... By Thursday, a large Pacific weather system is slated to move southeastward through the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin leading to height falls over our region and an increasing pressure gradient. Breezy to locally windy conditions are likely to affect much of the area starting Thursday afternoon and again on Friday as the system moves by just to our north. Advisory level winds may also be possible, particularly across southeast California and the Colorado River Valley. Near normal temperatures Thursday are forecast to dip on Friday as the NBM/WPC shows highs back into a 80- 85 degree range. Stronger ridging is then favored to build across the Western U.S. over the weekend pushing daytime highs to near 90 degrees Saturday and then into a 90-95 degree range for Sunday and next Monday. The weather pattern through at least the first half of next week should support continued dry weather along with at least one more weather system passing by to our north creating breezy to windy conditions. && .AVIATION...Updated at 2300Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No significant weather issues will exist through Wednesday evening under clear skies. Confidence is good that winds in the Phoenix area will becoming easterly around or shortly after midnight. Winds across SE California will oscillate generally between S/SE during the day, and W/NW overnight. Extended periods of nearly calm conditions will be common across the entire region. && .FIRE WEATHER... A weather system will exit the region today with only lingering chances for isolated light showers across the eastern Arizona high terrain this morning. Weak high pressure and drying conditions will prevail for the rest of today through Wednesday with overall light winds. MinRHs will dip to between 15-20% today and 10-15% on Wednesday as overnight recoveries become poor to fair starting tonight at 30-50%. Another passing weather system late week will likely bring increased winds and even lower RHs resulting in the potential for elevated fire weather conditions on Thursday and Friday. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM...Kuhlman AVIATION...18 FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman  858 FXAK69 PAFG 142300 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 300 PM AKDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .SYNOPSIS... A front approaches the West Coast Tuesday afternoon and evening and stretches into the Interior Wednesday. Light snow is initially expected turning into a rain/snow mix in the warmer afternoons. Cold conditions persist across the North Slope. A very uncertain storm arrives this weekend. && .KEY WEATHER MESSAGES... Central and Eastern Interior... - Cooler temperatures remain through the end of the week with highs in the 30s and lows in the 20s for most areas. - Scattered snow showers continue to linger across the Central Interior and higher elevations across the Eastern Interior through Tuesday. Accumulations will be very light. - A front stalls over the area, from near Eielson west to Nome, by Wednesday afternoon. This will bring another round of widespread rain/snow showers across the Interior. Rain will be predominant in the warmer valleys with snow predominant overnight and at higher elevations. Snowfall totals generally light with 1 to 3 inches possible. West Coast and Western Interior... - Breezy northeasterly winds will continue through at least Thursday with the strongest winds from the Bering Strait to St. Lawrence Island. Expected gusts 25 to 35 mph. - A front arrives along the West Coast Tuesday afternoon and brings another round of light rain, snow, and mixed precipitation to portions of the West Coast and Western Interior through the end of the week. Precipitation will be most consistent for areas south of the Bering Strait along the West Coast and south of Huslia across the Western Interior. Mostly snow is expected Tuesday turning to more of a rain/snow mix Wednesday and Thursday. - Temperatures remain cool throughout the week with highs in the 20s and overnight lows in the teens to single digits above zero. North Slope and Brooks Range.. - Scattered snow showers linger across the Brooks Range through Wednesday and become more isolated thereafter. - Periods of gusty winds return to the northwest Arctic Coast Tuesday afternoon and remain through the end of the week. Gusts as high as 45 mph possible between Point Hope and Point Lay. Periods of blowing snow may reduce visibility and make travel difficult. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued. - Cold temperatures continue through the end of the week with highs in the single digits above zero while overnight lows reach as cold as the teens below zero. && .FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION... For Tuesday through Friday. At the start of the forecast period Tuesday a shortwave low around 521 decameters pulls cold air from the north against the Brooks Range and weak ridging shifts from the eastern Bering Sea into the Gulf of Alaska. A low in the Bering Sea stalls west of the ridge and is prevented from riding over the top of the ridge by a strong 545 decameter upper level high in northeastern Siberia. This low, while stuck, is still able to send a front up the coast late Tuesday which itself stalls against the colder, Arctic airmass Wednesday. This stalled front brings periods of light snow and some rain to the West Coast, Western Interior, and portions of the Central and Eastern Interior through Thursday. Snow will be the most prevalent p-type, but periods of rain are possible in the warmer valleys during the afternoons and evenings. Thursday into Friday the next low in our pattern approaches the Bering Sea. This low forces an area of weak high pressure to move east as well, which in turn forces the stalled Bering Sea low east into mainland Alaska. The low loses its organization and pushes into the West Coast and Interior creating more widespread, although still light, rain and snow showers late Thursday into Friday. All the while colder air continues to sit over the North Slope keeping that region cold and then Interior and Coast cool. && .EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7... For late Friday through next Tuesday. At the start of the extended forecast period late Friday showery conditions continue across the Interior as another, much stronger, low enters the western Bering Sea. Around this same time a strong upper level low moves south from near the north pole towards the North Slope further reinforcing the cold air in that region. The stronger low in the Bering Sea and the large region of Arctic air will push against each other in unpredictable ways. There is currently a large amount of uncertainty with the position and strength of this low and even less certainty for how it interacts. This uncertainty means that there is extremely low confidence for the exact impacts from the Bering Sea low as it tries to approach the West Coast. Additional precipitation is most likely from the Seward Peninsula south, but a more northerly track could bring additional snow and rain deep into the Interior. Winds will generally be north to northeasterly, but the speed will depend on exactly how strong and close the low gets. We will continue to monitor this storm through the end of the week. Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ801. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810. Gale Warning for PKZ811. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812-817-851-854-856>858. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816. && $$ Stokes  127 FXUS62 KMFL 142301 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 701 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 637 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Reduced visibilities and air quality will be possible across portions of the Naples metro due to smoke from the Newman Fire. - Dangerous rip currents will continue at all east coast beaches of South Florida through at least Wednesday evening. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 305 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Model guidance show a rather complex weather pattern affecting the central and northern portions of the CONUS, while a contrasting broad/widespread ridging continues to dominate the SE CONUS and the Florida peninsula. The sfc ridge remains firmly in place around northern Florida. Overall, expect the ongoing warm and dry conditions to continue at least through the rest of the work week. 00Z MFL sounding and model sounding keep PWATs below 1 inch for the next several days. But latest radar data shows potential for a few, very shallow marine showers to make it into the east coast metro areas at times. These will be very brief and light. Also, periods of breezy ENE winds are also likely through early this evening, especially along Atlantic coastal locations. The prevailing easterly winds may push smoke from the Newman wildfire towards the Gulf shore and other surrounding areas. As a result of this, local air quality issues are likely and can impact sensitive groups as firefighters continue to work on mitigating the fire. Additionally, smoke can contribute to lower visibilities on roadways. Afternoon temps are expected to reach the low 80s for the Atlantic side of SoFlo, while interior and western portions should reach the upper 80s to low 90s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 125 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Long range ensembles show a shortwave trough advecting across the central U.S. for the end of this week and the shortwave attempts to break down the deep-layer ridge over the Southeast U.S. However, with the ridge being highly amplified, it will not break down entirely and rather just 'flatten' out to an extent. As the shortwave trough then curves off northwards, upper level ridging re- amplifies in conjunction with a deep-layer trough forming over the Great Lakes region this weekend. This trough is expected to be strong enough to the point where it forces a frontal boundary and some moisture into northern Florida and weakens the ridging pattern more substantially. However, ensembles still keep 500mb heights around the 75th percentile for this date range (April 18-20), hinting that the high pressure has a good chance to hold onto its control of the local weather. If this trend holds firm, mostly dry weather would be expected to continue minus some isolated shower activity occurring as a result of increased daytime high temperatures under the ridge pattern and an increase in moisture availability. As the frontal boundary washes out after it enters northern Florida, PWATs may rise back to climatological norms over the weekend and into next week (1.2-1.4") which can support some weak shower activity even under a high pressure pattern, particularly as a result of sea breeze circulations. Overall, most ensemble members and clusters at this time favor a drier solution for this weekend and into early next week, and even the wetter solutions do not favor a highly active period with total QPF for each 24-hour period being below 0.5". As a result, the latest forecast keeps conditions predominantly dry with only slight chances for some shower activity at the beginning of next week. High temperatures will continue to rise each day through the end of the week and into this weekend underneath this large ridging pattern as we see highs rise to the mid to upper 80s along the east coast metro, upper 80s to low 90s for the Gulf coast, and low to mid 90s over the interior by Friday and continuing into the weekend. Overnight lows are expected to range each night from the low 60s for the Gulf coast, interior, and lake regions to the upper 60s and low 70s for the east coast metro. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 702 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR prevails at all terminals during the next 24 hours as high pressure remains in control of the area. Winds will decrease and remain moderate tonight. Another round of ENE breezy periods is expected after 15-16Z, with a possible westerly breeze at APF after 17Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 125 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Winds decrease back to a moderate breeze beginning today, which is expected to last into the end of the week. Cautionary conditions are still expected with winds in the range of 15-20 kts, but advisory criteria is expected to be avoided. Seas of 4-6 feet expected in the local Atlantic waters and 2 feet or less in the Gulf waters. && .BEACHES... Issued at 125 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A high risk for rip currents continues through the middle of this week and may persist into the end of the week as brisk onshore flow continues. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 68 80 69 83 / 0 0 0 0 West Kendall 64 82 65 85 / 0 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 68 81 69 84 / 0 0 0 0 Homestead 68 80 69 83 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 69 79 70 81 / 0 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 68 79 70 81 / 0 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 69 83 70 85 / 0 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 67 79 67 81 / 0 0 0 0 Boca Raton 68 79 70 81 / 0 0 0 0 Naples 64 86 64 85 / 0 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ168-172- 173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Redman LONG TERM....Redman AVIATION...17  907 FXUS64 KMOB 142301 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 601 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 557 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Moderate to extreme drought, with little to no rain over the next 7 days, will exacerbate wildfire activity. - Patchy to areas of fog development, some of which could be dense, is possible over the next few nights. - A moderate rip current risk is expected for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches through the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 241 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A strong upper-level ridge is expected to maintain its hold over the southeast US through Saturday. This ridge, along with high pressure anchored over the western Atlantic, will help to maintain warm and dry conditions through the remainder of the week and into Saturday. The only feature that does attempt to pass near the local area over the next few days is a weakening shortwave that pushes across the Tennessee River Valley on Thursday. At this point, any forcing associated with this shortwave looks to remain to our north and overall deep moisture values continue to remain rather limited, so no rain is anticipated. Highs through Saturday will generally range from the upper 70s to low 80s along the coast to the mid to upper 80s inland. Would not be surprised to see one or two inland locations crack the 90 degree mark by late week. Lows will generally range from the upper 50s to mid 60s. With strong ridging in place, along with light winds and saturated boundary layer conditions, fog development continues to remain likely over the next several nights. Probabilistic guidance suggests that interior counties will have the best potential to see dense fog. The pattern finally begins to break down by Sunday as a longwave trough pushes eastward across the CONUS. This will allow for a cold front to approach and pass trough the local area. Overall moisture and forcing are rather meager with this frontal passage, however, we may be able to squeeze out a few isolated to widely scattered showers (and possibly a storm) late Saturday night into Sunday as the front passes through. After its passage, high pressure builds in to our north, allowing for drier and slightly cooler air to filter in for the start of next week. Highs Sunday and Monday will reach the mid to upper 70s and lows will range from the mid to upper 40s north to the low to mid 50s south. A Moderate Risk of rip currents will continue through the week. RCMOS probabilistic guidance suggests that we may drop to a low risk by this weekend. /96 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 601 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions this evening will likely be followed by IFR to VLIFR conditions in low clouds/fog across much of the area overnight. Conditions quickly improve to VFR Wednesday morning. Winds become calm or light and variable this evening, then a southerly flow around 10 knots develops on Wednesday. /29 && .MARINE... Issued at 241 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A light to moderate southeasterly flow continues through Wednesday, becoming more southerly by Thursday. Moderate to occasionally strong offshore flow returns by Sunday in the wake of a cold front. Small Craft Advisories may become necessary for Sunday and into Monday. /96 && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 241 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Little to no relief is expected for our ongoing drought situation as mainly dry conditions continue over the next 7 days. Although afternoon humidity values and 20 foot wind speeds remain below Red Flag criteria, the worsening drought will continue to lead to an elevated fire risk across the area through Saturday. We will have to monitor conditions closely by Sunday and into early next week after a cold front passes through the area. We could get very close to Red Flag criteria by Monday/Tuesday timeframe as humidity values drop into the low 20% range and winds increase. /96 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 61 83 64 84 / 0 0 0 10 Pensacola 63 80 64 81 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 64 78 65 78 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 55 87 57 86 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 57 86 61 86 / 0 0 0 10 Camden 55 86 59 85 / 0 0 0 10 Crestview 57 86 57 85 / 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$  544 FXUS65 KFGZ 142303 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 403 PM MST Tue Apr 14 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Isolated showers continue into Tuesday evening as the current storm system moves eastward. Another round of windy weather is expected Thursday, followed by cooler temperatures Friday as a weather system passes to our north. The weekend looks dry with warmer daytime temperatures and well below normal morning lows. && .DISCUSSION...Much cooler weather has arrived following the passage of last night's low pressure system. Mid day temperatures were in the 40s at mountain locations with 50s at lower elevations. Although the main low has moved into western Colorado, a trailing shortwave will bring the potential for isolated showers for the remainder of the afternoon and well into the evening from around the Mogollon Rim northward. Any rain showers that develop could be mixed with graupel down to near 6000 feet elevation. Wednesday - a shortwave ridge moves in briefly, bringing temperatures back near normal and lighter southwest winds of 10-15 mph. Thursday and Friday - another trough is forecast to pass by to our north, bringing southwest winds gusting to 35-45 mph and continued mild weather Thursday, followed by much cooler temperatures Friday. Friday's winds will shift to northwesterly gusting 25-35 mph. In the latest model guidance, the trough passes too far north for precipitation in Arizona, with PoP values less than 10% along the northern border Thursday night/Friday. Very dry air behind this shortwave and decreasing winds could lead to some of the coldest temperatures we've seen in well over a month on Saturday morning at high country locations. If you live above 5000 feet you should plan on protecting any outside plants and/or disconnecting hoses. The rest of the weekend looks dry with a warming trend. Southwest winds may increase again early next week as another low approaches the southwest United States, but there is still plenty of spread in the track and timing of the system so confidence is low right now. && .AVIATION...Wednesday 15/00Z through Thursday 16/00Z...Mainly VFR expected with ISO -SHRA through 03Z. W winds 10-20 kts with gusts to 25-30 kts east of KFLG, becoming light and variable after 02Z. Winds then become SW-W 5-15 kts after 16Z. OUTLOOK...Thursday 16/00Z through Saturday 18/00Z...VFR conditions. SW winds 15-25 kts with gusts to 30-40 kts on Thursday, staying locally gusty Thursday night. Winds become W-NW 10-20 kts with gusts 20-30 kts on Friday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday...Dry conditions with seasonable temperatures. Winds are southwest through west 5-15 mph on Wednesday, then increase to 15-25 mph gusting 30-45 mph on Thursday. Minimum RH is 10-20% each day. Friday through Sunday...Dry through the period. Winds northwest through west 10-20 mph gusting 25-35 mph on Friday, becoming variable at 5-15 mph on Saturday, then turning south through southwest on Sunday. Minimum RH is 10-20% on Friday, then a bit drier at 10-15% on Saturday and Sunday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...JJ AVIATION...Meola FIRE WEATHER...Lewandowski For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff  560 FXUS61 KRNK 142303 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 703 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... 00Z Aviation discussion updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A strong upper level ridge will bring abnormal warmth for the next few days with record heat possible. 2. A cool down arrives by early next week as a cold front moves through the region. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: A strong upper level ridge will bring abnormal warmth for the next few days with record heat possible. Slight increase in instability and minor shortwave passing across the mid-Atlantic may bring a few showers to southeast WV this afternoon but coverage looks isolated with better coverage further north/west. A rumble of thunder also possible. Otherwise, still looking at strong upper ridge over the southeast into Thursday, though models showing a decent shortwave trough arriving by Thursday night into Friday which could bring at least some showers/few storms to the mountains with less coverage east. Ridge rebuilds behind this system before the pattern changes early next week. So overall expecting above normal temperatures, though Friday could be cooler but still above normal compared to the rest of the week. See climate and fire weather sections below for details on records and fire danger. Key Message 2: A cool down arrives by early next week as a cold front moves through the region. Guidance is beginning to show hints of a cool down by late Sunday and into Monday next week as a strong cold front pushes through the region. If this occurs, this will bring an end to the record breaking heat that is expected to occur this week. Temperatures will fall back closer to April normals. Some rain will be possible with the frontal passage, but amounts appear to be light and unlikely to aid in helping with the current drought. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions look to prevail through the TAF period, with west/southwest winds at around 5-10 knots expected through the TAF period. Gusts through the 18-00 UTC timeframe on Wednesday look to increase to around 10-15 knots. Overall, no major concerns at terminals through the period as VFR flight conditions prevail. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Mainly dry with VFR conditions into Saturday. There is a front/upper disturbance arriving Thu night-Friday that may bring showers and sub-VFR to the mountains. The pattern changes Sunday with a stronger front and better chance of showers and potential for sub-VFR cigs/vbsy. Winds behind this system will be gusty Sunday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Unusually warm and dry conditions will take place with record heat possible through Thursday. Rainfall chances appear low and remain confined to the mountains, which will only prolong the ongoing drought. Relative humidities will fall towards 20 to 30 percent for the next few afternoons, especially east of the Blue Ridge. Some southern-facing slopes may have relative humidities drop below 20 percent with afternoon sunshine and gusty winds due to an unstable atmosphere from the increasing heat. These aforementioned conditions will escalate fire danger across the entire region. The anomalous heat and low humidity combined with daytime gusts will only make fire containment increasingly difficult throughout the rest of this week. The next notable chance for any widespread wetting rainfall may not come until Sunday when a cold front arrives to bring some relief. && .CLIMATE... The following record high maximums and record high minimums, or warmest lows, are in jeopardy due to the abnormal warmth over the next three days: Today: Station Hi Max T Hi Min T Roanoke 91 in 1945 67 in 1922 Lynchburg 91 in 1941 63 in 2014 Danville 91 in 1945 75 in 1922 Bluefield 83 in 1930 64 in 1977 Blacksburg 82 in 1941 60 in 1941 Wednesday: Station Hi Max T Hi Min T Roanoke 89 in 1936 67 in 2024 Lynchburg 89 in 1941 65 in 1896 Danville 91 in 2006 68 in 1922 Bluefield 89 in 1922 60 in 2006 Blacksburg 83 in 1941 57 in 1954 Thursday: Station Hi Max T Hi Min T Roanoke 90 in 2002 61 in 2017 Lynchburg 91 in 2002 65 in 1912 Danville 92 in 2002 64 in 1916 Bluefield 81 in 2012 66 in 2006 Blacksburg 82 in 1941 61 in 1941 && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...PW/WP AVIATION...EB/SH/WP FIRE WEATHER...PW/WP CLIMATE...PW/SH  133 FXUS62 KMLB 142303 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 703 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Remaining mostly dry over the next several days with a warming trend under deep layer high pressure - Near record highs in the lower 90s late this week and into the weekend over the interior. - Next cold front forecast to cross the area Sunday night into early Monday and bring a small chance for showers early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Thru tonight...Scattered marine stratocu has spit out some sprinkles/light showers along portions of the coast today and this should diminish tonight. Noticeably less cirrus today and the diurnal cu field will diminish after sunset esp over the interior with skies becoming mostly clear there. With lighter winds, there is a little better chance for patchy fog across northern sections (Orlando north and west) toward sunrise as indicated by the HRRR on several consecutive runs. Though NBM probs remain low at less than 20%. Wed-Sun...Low level ridge axis remains north of the area through Thursday and then model guidance shows it settling southward across the area late week and south FL by Sunday. Winds will gradually weaken and veer in response to this ridge axis. Meanwhile, ridge axis aloft will remain across the area, resulting in a warming trend through the period and overall dry conditions. Onshore winds and inland moving sea breeze will continue to keep warmest max temperatures across the interior each day. Highs will remain closer to normal in the upper 70s/low 80s at the coast Wednesday and Thursday, and be warmer than normal inland, in the mid to upper 80s. As temperatures continue to climb into late week and into the weekend, max temps will become above normal area-wide, ranging from the low to mid 80s at the coast and climbing into the low 90s across the interior. For inland sites, these highs will be nearing record values. The greatest potential for any tied or broken daily records still looks to be at Leesburg, especially Saturday (see record highs below). Mon-Tue...A weak cold front is forecast to move through the area Sunday night into early Monday. This will finally lead to a cooling trend early next week with slightly below normal max temps on Tue. There will be some increase in rain chances, however moisture looks meager and the 12Z GFS is trending toward the drier ECWMF. So PoPs remain on the low end (around 20-30%), focused on central/southern sections Mon. Both models show a period of breezy to windy northeast to east winds developing behind the front that will continue into Tuesday. && .MARINE... Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Boating conditions will continue to become more favorable the remainder of the week and into the weekend. Ridge axis of high pressure across the Atlantic remains north of the waters through Wed and then settles southward across central Florida late this week, then south of the local waters Sun. This will produce a gradual veering wind flow becoming more SE and S and then finally SW-W on Sunday. Each afternoon though there will be 10-14 knots E/SE sea breeze near the coast. Primary contribution to seas will be an east swell with a bit of wind wave. Combined seas will fall below 5 FT Wed and range 2-3 FT Fri-Sun. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 701 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Mainly VFR conditions thru the TAF period. Will have to monitor for patchy fog development late tonight into early Wed, esp near/north of I-4 and may need some TEMPOs here eventually. Otherwise, mostly dry, but may see a sprinkle along the Space and Treasure coasts. ESE winds becoming light this evening and overnight with ERLY winds again on Wed increasing to 7-13 kts with some higher gusts - esp near the coast, with sea breeze development and inland movement. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Prevailing onshore winds will continue through Thursday as ridge axis of high pressure across the Atlantic remains just north of the area. Easterly winds will increase 10 to 15 mph each afternoon behind the sea breeze. Gusts up to 20 mph will be possible along the coast. Dry conditions are forecast to prevail through late week, with a gradual warming trend. Onshore flow will keep Min RH values above critical levels in the mid 40s to mid 50s at the coast. However, well inland, roughly Kissimmee northward, min RH values will fall as low as 30-35 percent Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. Wind speeds are forecast to remain below 15 mph across this area where lower RH values occur so Red Flag conditions are not forecast. Dispersion values will be Good to Very Good Wednesday and generally Good Thursday. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Record Highs for Friday-Sunday (17th-19th): April 17th April 18th April 19th Daytona Beach 89 2022 92 1967 92 1968 Leesburg 92 1991 90 1990 92 2020 Sanford 92 1967 94 1967 94 2020 Orlando 95 1922 93 1922 94 1922 Melbourne 90 2006 91 2015 93 2015 Vero Beach 91 2021 92 2015 93 1969 Fort Pierce 93 1919 94 2015 92 1988 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 60 80 59 82 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 61 84 61 86 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 65 79 65 80 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 63 79 63 80 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 60 86 60 88 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 60 84 59 86 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 62 84 62 87 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 62 79 62 81 / 0 0 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kelly AVIATION...Sedlock  912 FXUS63 KGRB 142304 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 604 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a risk for strong to severe thunderstorms south of line roughly from Merrill to Carter to Amberg this afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds are the main hazards. There is also an isolated tornado threat mainly south of HWY 10. - Thunderstorms will lead to localized heavy rainfall, greater than 1", this afternoon and evening across central and east- central WI. This will lead to additional flooding concerns in urban, low-lying, and poor drainage areas through tonight. - Minor to moderate river flooding is ongoing or forecast to occur on several area rivers. Expect many rivers to rise this week due to additional rain and runoff from Upper Michigan, with the greatest impacts expected on the Menominee River, where some locations may see major flooding during the mid to late part of the week. - Additional rounds of rain and thunderstorms are expected at times Wednesday through this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 405 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Severe Storm Potential Late This Afternoon/Evening...A surface boundary (warm front) was orientated west-east just on the southern edge of the forecast area this afternoon. This boundary will gradually lift north into the southern portion of the forecast area this afternoon due to persistent southwesterly flow, ushering in moist, unstable air. The atmosphere will be primed across the southern portion of the forecast area with steep mid- level lapse rates, 50-60 kts of deep-layer shear, and around 1000 to 2000 J/kg of MUCAPE, supporting the potential for severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds being the main hazards. However, just along the southern portion of the forecast area, CAMs and current surface analysis indicate some surface- based CAPE of 1000 to 1500 J/kg, effective SRH of 100-200 m2/s2, and steep low-level lapse rates, favoring a tornado threat in addition to the large hail and damaging winds. After coordination with SPC and surrounding offices, a Tornado Watch was issued for Waushara, Winnebago, Calumet, and Manitowoc counties until 10 PM tonight (Tuesday). Depending on how far north the boundary lifts, the tornado threat could reach into the next northern tier of counties. PWATs of 1-1.25 inches are forecast with these storms, causing a risk of at least additional flooding in urban, low- lying, and poor drainage areas, and a risk of flash flooding, especially where ongoing flooding impacts from Monday evening's storms remain. Possible Dense Fog Tonight...Following this evening's showers and thunderstorms, models indicate low-level moisture/stratus expanding into the area from the northeast. Given the low-level moisture and the ongoing low-level moisture over the area already, fog is likely going to occur. Models indicate visibilities may drop as low as 1/4 mile at times. A Dense Fog Advisory may be needed late tonight into Wednesday morning. Rain and Thunderstorms Wednesday-Monday...A surface low is forecast to lift into the Upper Mississippi Valley Wednesday into Thursday, bringing another round of rain and possible thunderstorms. MUCAPE of 200-400 J/kg looks to stay confined to the southern portions of the forecast area leaving a marginal risk for severe storms. Although rainfall amounts with this system look less impressive, any additional rainfall will still add to the ongoing flooding risk. A more dynamic trough is slated to impact the region late Friday into early Saturday, bringing additional widespread rainfall and storms. The northward extent of greater instability is somewhat uncertain with this system, impacting severe weather potential, but this will be something to watch in the coming days. Cooler air will trail behind this system, which may bring potential for snow across the far north on Saturday associated with the wrap-around moisture from the main low pressure system. && .AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance Issued at 603 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A warm front remains stationary across the southern Fox Valley to near KVOK this evening. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to track east-northeast along and south of this boundary, primarily impacting areas south of a KAUW to KMNM line through 03z. The greatest risk for severe weather, including large hail and gusty winds to 50 knots, will be focused south of a KISW to KGRB line. Behind the departing precipitation, low-level moisture will surge into the region from the northeast. Expect flight conditions to deteriorate rapidly to IFR and eventually LIFR/VLIFR at all terminals overnight. Widespread fog is anticipated, with visibilities dropping to 1/4SM in many locations. Confidence is high that these poor flight conditions will persist through Wednesday morning. Improvement will be slow on Wednesday. While ceilings and visibilities will lift first over north-central Wisconsin (KRHI), persistent MVFR ceilings are expected to linger across the rest of central and east-central Wisconsin through Wednesday afternoon. Low-level wind shear may also develop at KMTW tonight with 40 knot winds forecast at 2000 feet between 03-06z. Outlook: Another round of showers and thunderstorms is possible Wednesday night, mainly across central and east-central Wisconsin. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 405 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Despite no precipitation falling from this morning through early this afternoon, several locations across east-central WI were still dealing with flooding impacts where a maximum of 4.5-5.5 inches of rainfall fell from Monday's storms along an axis from Stevens Point to Bonduel, with a more broad swath of 1-3" south of HWY 8. An additional 0.5-1" of rain is expected across east- central WI this afternoon/evening, which will only exacerbate flooding concerns. Runoff from snow melt in Upper Michigan is also still expected to bring moderate to possibly major flooding on the Menominee River, especially during the mid to late part of the week. If you live near a river or stream, keep a close eye on water levels this week and monitor the latest Flood Warnings from the National Weather Service in Green Bay. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for WIZ022-035>040-045- 048>050. && $$ DISCUSSION.....Kruk AVIATION.......MPC HYDROLOGY......Kruk  698 FXUS64 KHUN 142305 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 605 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1010 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Low relative humidity values, dry fuels, and gusty winds will result in elevated fire weather conditions today through Wednesday. - There are medium chances (30-40%) of showers and storms on Thursday. - Medium chances (30-60%) of showers and storms return on Saturday. && .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 201 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A line of broken to scattered mid-level clouds have been lingering across northwest AL all day with mainly sunny skies elsewhere. This hasn't prevented temps from warming up into the upper 70s to lower 80s thanks to WAA from breezy southwesterly winds. Gusts have been reaching 15-20kts, but keeping below 25kts (a Red Flag Warning threshold). RH values are also remaining out of RFW criteria , generally around 30%. Regardless, with conditions so dry across the TN Valley, ensure you are fire smart and caution continues to be emphasized. Gusts will slack after sunset and under a mostly clear skies, temps will fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Thursday Night) Issued at 1010 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Near record warmth is forecast through the short term period with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s on Wednesday and Thursday. These temperatures are around 10 degrees above climatological normals for this time of year. Locally, not much change is in store as high pressure along the Southeast coast continues to be the main factor in our local weather pattern. One thing to watch is on Thursday as a shortwave riding along the trough to our west will push eastward towards the Tennessee River Valley. This will bring a low to medium chance (20-40%) of showers and thunderstorms Thursday evening. Unfortunately, overall rain amounts will remain quite low and will not put much of a dent into our deficit this Spring. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 1052 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 The extended forecast period will begin with a continuation of warm/dry conditions, as a 500-mb ridge builds northeastward in the wake of a low amplitude shortwave trough and weak surface low tracking eastward across the northern Mid-Atlantic states. With only a few high-based cumulus anticipated beneath a strengthening mid- level inversion and light SSW flow in the low-levels, most valley locations will experience highs in the u80s-l90s. Low-level flow will begin to increase on Friday evening as a deepening vort max (embedded within the base of a broader trough extending from southern Canada into the northern Plains) begins to eject northeastward into the MO Valley, resulting in development of a frontal wave that will lift northeastward from KS into WI by 12Z Saturday. Latest model guidance suggests that both the mid-level wave and surface low will undergo substantial intensification as they progress further northeastward into eastern OT/western QC by 12Z Sunday, with showers and thunderstorms expected to develop along the length of the trailing cold front and perhaps a prefrontal surface trough (from IL/IN into the northwestern Gulf Coast) Saturday afternoon. As the cold front begins to overtake the surface trough across the TN Valley Saturday evening, chances for much needed rainfall will increase across our forecast area, but there remains a large amount of uncertainty regarding rainfall amounts (ranging from around 0.05-0.10" as a worst case scenario to 0.5-0.75" as a best case scenario). This is likely due to the combination of substantial amount of lingering CINH noted in forecast soundings and a narrow plume of modified Gulf moisture which will only overspread the entire region immediately in advance of the front. Should the low/mid-level thermodynamic profile improve, rainfall amounts would likely be closer to the best case scenario, and a few strong storms capable of producing gusty winds would also be probable given sufficiently strong WSW flow aloft (45-55 knots) for updraft organization. Regardless, the front appears as if it will be exiting our region early Sunday morning, with any lingering precipitation ending in our southeastern zones around 12Z Sunday. A cooler/drier continental airmass will overspread the region for the remainder of the period, featuring highs in the u60s-l70s Sunday and overnight lows in the l-m 40s Monday morning. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 605 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions will continue through at least early Wednesday evening. Southerly winds will subside to around 5 knots or less this evening and persist overnight. Winds will then increase once again to be around 10 knots (sustained) with gusts to between 15-20 knots by late Wednesday morning/early afternoon. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...JMS SHORT TERM....GH LONG TERM....70 AVIATION...26  059 FXUS63 KILX 142306 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 606 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Periods of thunderstorms will continue through early Saturday. A 15-30% risk for severe weather exists this afternoon, tomorrow night, and late Friday into Saturday. The primary risks this afternoon will be large hail and damaging winds. - With any training storms, heavy rainfall may result in localized flooding. There is a level 2 of 5 (slight) risk for excessive rainfall this evening northeast of a roughly Galesburg to Mattoon line. - After a warm work week, conditions will turn sharply cooler on Saturday. There will be a low (20-30%) chance for frost Saturday night north of I-70, and a higher chance area-wide Sunday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 133 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ***** BOOM OR BUST CONVECTIVE SCENARIO THIS AFTERNOON ***** At 1pm, a warm airmass was in place across central and southeast Illinois with temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s. Gulf moisture continues to surge into the region on 15-20 (gusting to 30) mph southwest breezes, with dewpoints currently in the mid 60s. Consequently, the airmass is becoming increasingly unstable with RAP mesoanalysis indicating 1500-3000 J/kg SBCAPE. A capping inversion should prevent convective initiation unless and until a trigger lifts parcels to the LFC, which at this point remains unclear. Recent iterations of the HRRR and several members of the 12z REFS suggest that cap will break, resulting in explosive convective development and scattered severe weather across the CWA by mid afternoon. However, about 60-70% of CAMs keep the cap in place throughout the evening - maintaining warm and breezy conditions. The 18z raob confirms this notion, depicting a 3 degC capping inversion around 800mb which would take a lot of forcing to overcome. Given the parameter space for severe weather is forecast to become volatile over the next few hours, with SBCAPEs climbing to 2500-4000 J/kg, 700-500 lapse rates reaching 8-8.5C/km, and 45-55 kt effective bulk wind shear, any storms that form would pose a risk for severe weather, especially large hail where storm relative inflow (from the SSW/SW) is unimpeded in right- moving supercells (favored by clockwise curved hodographs). In addition, a few of the more bullish models show localized pockets of 3+ inches of rain falling in a few hours with training storms, which could result in some hydrological issues; accordingly, WPC has expanded the level 2 of 5 (slight) risk for excessive rainfall southward into much of our CWA. We'll be keeping a close eye on mesoscale trends this afternoon to assess the potential and issue any necessary warnings. ***** MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW ***** We'll likely (50-70% chance) have a few more storms overnight tonight as a weakening MCS lifts up into our area from northeast Missouri. We may end up needing some short-fused wind headline if the HRRR and RRFS are correct in their depiction of a meso-high feature impacting our west/southwest counties between 11pm and 4am, though confidence in this scenario is also low. The upper level low will slowly approach our area tomorrow, with continued warm advection ahead of it bringing waves of thunderstorms through the Prairie State. It appears instability will be a bit weaker tomorrow due to widespread clouds and scattered storms limiting surface heating, though the risk for severe weather will increase during the late evening or early overnight period (8pm-2am) west of I-55 where a few CAMs bring a weakening line of storms capable of locally severe winds. ***** DRY THURSDAY(?), STORMS RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT ***** A weak cold front will settle across the district on Thursday, bringing a moment's repose from the active pattern. However, the front will lift back north Thursday night into Friday, when instability will build ahead of a more potent kinematic system. As with today, we'll be in the warm sector on Friday, so a volatile thermodynamic environment would support severe weather if a trigger ruptures the capping inversion. Otherwise, more numerous showers and storms will pass through the area along the cold front sometime late Friday night or Saturday morning. While this is not a diurnally favorable period for severe weather, the strong forcing with the cold front and 45-55 kt deep layer shear could result in at least scattered severe winds if a mature line of storms enters our area from the west Friday night...or develops along the cold front in eastern Illinois on Saturday. ***** COOLER WEATHER RETURNS SATURDAY ***** A cold front will cross the area sometime on Saturday, with stiff west winds ushering in a more seasonably cool airmass for the second half of the weekend. NBM indicates a 30-50% chance low temperatures by Saturday night fall to 36 deg or cooler north of I-70, though winds should remain elevated to prevent frost formation. The better opportunity will be Sunday night, when NBM chances are 30-60% area- wide for sub 37 degF lows and winds should be calm with surface high pressure parked across the CWA. Protective action may be needed to prevent frost from damaging tender vegetation. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 603 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A trough of low pressure will generally remain draped across Iowa into Southern Wisconsin through the period. Across central Illinois, moderate S/SSW winds will continue through the period with gusts in the 20-30kt range much of the time. Unstable and unsettled conditions will be in place; however, with no notable forcing mechanism across the local area, specific timing of precip chances remains difficult to pin down. In the wake of an initial shortwave and round of storms now over IN, central IL is favored to remain dry this evening and overnight, but there remains a low (20%) chance for storms. Additional rounds of showers and storms are possible through the day Wednesday, but confidence in specifics remains low and anticipate that there will be timing adjustments as the picture becomes more clear. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 307 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 RECORD HIGHS FOR 4/14: PEORIA: 86 (2024) SPRINGFIELD: 89 (2006) LINCOLN: 87 (2006) NORMAL: 84 (2006) URBANA: 84 (2010) DECATUR: 88 (1941) FORECAST HIGHS FOR 4/14/2026: PEORIA: 84 SPRINGFIELD: 87 LINCOLN: 86 NORMAL: 84 URBANA: 84 DECATUR: 85 && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...Bumgardner DISCUSSION...Bumgardner AVIATION...Deubelbeiss CLIMATE...25/MJA  787 FXUS64 KBRO 142309 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 609 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 606 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Key Messages: - Breezy conditions will continue this week. - A moderate risk of rip currents will likely prevail through the week. - Temperatures above average through this week with a cool down late this weekend. - Unsettled weather will return this weekend in association with a cold front moving through Texas. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 127 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 High pressure over the Gulf will maintain warm, dry, and breezy weather through the remainder of this week. Above average temperatures with highs around 90 (80s near the coast) and morning lows in the low 70s will continue through Saturday. Breezy southeasterly winds will continue, with gusts of 30-35 mph possible each afternoon, with the breeziest afternoon being Friday. These should stay below Wind Advisory criteria, but Friday in particular will continue to be monitored. Rain chances are 10% or less through Saturday. At local beaches, there is a Moderate Risk of Rip Currents through at least Wednesday. Gusty winds in conjunction with Friday's new moon will likely keep the risk elevated through the week. Persistent southeasterly flow will allow moisture to build into this weekend. Ensemble PWAT values are forecasted to be greater than the 90th percentile of climatological normals (1.7- 1.9"). A cold front expected to sweep through deep South Texas late Saturday into Sunday will bring cooler temperatures and be able to tap into this moisture, increasing rain chances Saturday night through Monday. The greatest chance of rain at this time is Sunday, with moderate chances (40-60%) region wide. Check back for updates as we continue to refine the forecast. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 606 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions will prevail early this evening with continued breezy southeasterly winds. Later tonight, low clouds will move in the MVFR conditions expected and will linger into Wednesday late morning. Winds will remain elevated through the night into Wednesday with gusts of 25-30 kts. && .MARINE... Issued at 127 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A moderate to fresh onshore breeze will maintain moderate seas into this weekend. An enhanced pressure gradient will bring periods of strong gusts on the Laguna Madre and nearshore Gulf waters out to 20 nm. This will likely result in Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines each afternoon, with brief gusts 20 kts or more possible over the Laguna Madre. This weekend, Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible behind a cold front with rough seas Sunday into Monday. There is an increased chance of rain and thunderstorms Saturday night through Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 73 87 73 88 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 70 89 70 90 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 74 91 74 93 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 72 92 72 94 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 73 79 74 80 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 71 85 71 85 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...69 LONG TERM....69 AVIATION...68  437 FXUS64 KOHX 142311 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 611 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 606 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - There is an enhanced fire danger on Wednesday due to dry fuels, low RH values and gusty winds. - Expect unseasonal warmth to last through Saturday. - There are medium to high rain/storm chances Thursday and Thursday evening, and again this weekend. No severe weather is anticipated. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 1029 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Middle Tennessee finds itself under the influence of an early- season Bermuda High pattern today, and this will continue through tomorrow. There will be an elevated fire danger on Wednesday owing to dry fuels, afternoon RH values bottoming out in the 30-35% range most areas, and gusty winds. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1029 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A quasi-stationary surface boundary currently is situated to our northwest, and this will eventually bring rain and storm chances to the region on Thursday and Thursday evening. We can expect some instability with this environment, especially over northwest portions of the mid state, but the risk of any severe storms is very low, and, unfortunately, QPF values don't bring much hope that our burgeoning drought conditions will abate. Indeed, the frontal boundary will dry out considerably as it comes through Middle Tennessee, and so expected rainfall totals taper off from northwest to southeast. A stronger cold front is poised to sweep across the region on Saturday and Saturday evening. Again, QPF values won't move the needle much regarding the drought. In fact, the pre-frontal air mass will be so dry that the bulk of the convection that develops from this system will be post-frontal, so that will definitely limit the severe potential. However, temperatures behind the fropa will be considerably cooler, and that will be primary impact from our weekend cold front. Low temperatures Sunday night/Monday morning will range primarily from the upper 30s to low 40s; a few of our higher elevation spots may even wake up to a light frost. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 606 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions persist this taf cycle. Clouds are thinning out with the lowest cigs around 5 kft. Southerly winds will relax below 10 kts overnight, becoming southwesterly and breezy after 15Z. Gusts between 15-25 kts can be expected through Wednesday afternoon with passing mid to high level clouds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 64 86 65 83 / 0 0 10 60 Clarksville 66 86 66 83 / 0 0 40 80 Crossville 57 82 59 81 / 0 0 10 30 Columbia 62 85 63 84 / 0 0 10 50 Cookeville 60 82 62 80 / 0 0 10 40 Jamestown 60 83 59 81 / 0 0 10 40 Lawrenceburg 60 84 62 83 / 0 0 10 40 Murfreesboro 61 86 63 84 / 0 0 10 50 Waverly 66 86 67 83 / 0 0 30 70 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rose LONG TERM....Rose AVIATION.....Baggett  365 FXUS62 KMHX 142311 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 711 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Temperatures have trended warmer through the rest of the week. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Above to well above normal temperatures will prevail through the entire week with the potential for record breaking temperatures each day through Saturday. 2) Worsening drought and fire weather conditions anticipated over much of the upcoming week, with the next meaningful chance of rain not until Sunday && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Persistent upper level ridging and a warm southwest low-level flow regime will continue to strongly favor well above normal temperatures through the remainder of the week. Each day will carry at least some potential for record- tying or record-breaking temperatures. For a little context, one of our forecast aids (the ECMWF's Extreme Forecast Index -or- EFI) continues to show a very strong signal for a stretch of highly anomalous temperatures, with a focus from Wednesday through Saturday. While above normal temperatures seem to be a foregone conclusion, there may be some subtle, but important, features that could impact just how hot each day gets. One is cloudcover. The upper level ridge will flatten some today and tomorrow, which may allow convective debris clouds from the Plains to overspread the Carolinas. Like yesterday, that could hold temps down some, preventing them from reaching the full potential of the low-level thicknesses present. By Thursday, the ridge is forecast to amplify again, with more of a southwest flow aloft redeveloping. This suggests that the warmest day of the week may be Thursday if that southwest flow can divert high level clouds away from the area. Cloudcover will be a caveat again on Friday as a shortwave moves through aloft. This could put a small dent in temps, and may even allow a very low risk of a few isolated showers. This scenario appears unlikely, but is something we'll be monitoring in guidance through the week. KEY MESSAGE 2...Drought conditions are expected to persist through the foreseeable future with no rain in the forecast until Sunday. Even then, rainfall amounts on Sunday currently look to be less than a half an inch. The forecast area remains in a Severe Drought (D2), with some pockets of Extreme Drought (D3) emerging over the northern NC coastal plain. Precipitation deficits over the last 60 days range from 3-6 inches, which will only increase in the upcoming rain-free week. Growing vegetation and leaf out will only increase the strain on ground water in the coming weeks. While the forecast currently has conditions not meeting criteria for fire danger statements, the very dry conditions will continue to bring an elevated threat for wildfires. It is also worth noting that breezy afternoon/evening winds will be paired with relative humidities in the 30-40% range. Again, this does not meet Fire Danger Statement criteria, but given the increased sensitivities, it is worth a mention. The NCFS continues a statewide burn ban until further notice. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Pred VFR expected through the TAF period with high pressure remaining in control. Probabilities for fog tonight remain very low, near zero percent, but if localized decoupling occurs some patchy shallow fog may develop around the hours of 10-12z Wed morning. Winds will primarily be out of the SW with gusts around 15-20 kt beginning mid to late morning as deeper mixing ensues. An active sea breeze bringing a shift to Sly winds as it pushes inland through the afternoon and early evening hours. Outlook: Pred VFR conditions expected through the period with a more summertime pattern persisting through the week. Stronger winds likely in the coming days with tightening thermal gradient, most likely felt in the afternoons and evenings. && .MARINE... A pattern more typical of summer continues, with a daily chance of 20-25 kt winds over waters favored in southwest flow where the thermal gradient is the strongest. This includes the Pamlico Sound and nearby rivers and sounds. The hottest days with the strongest thermal gradient may necessitate short-fused Small Craft Advisories, but the frequency and coverage of 25 kt gusts in the forecast is too slim for any headlines at this time. For the coastal waters, seas of 2-4 ft will be common through mid-week. Seas may approach 5 ft at times late in the week, especially for the waters off of Cape Hatteras and Core Banks. Outlook: A cold front is forecast to move through area waters on Sunday. Ahead of the front, there should be an increased risk of 25 kt winds, with an even higher chance behind the front late Sunday into Monday. Of note, some of the stronger guidance suggests the potential for gale-force winds behind the front. Stay tuned for updates on this frontal passage and the potential marine impacts late in the weekend into early next week. && .CLIMATE... Record High temps for 4/14 (Tuesday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 89/1948 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 80/1994 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 93/1922 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 80/1996 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 99/1930 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 88/1977 (NCA ASOS) Record High temps for 4/15 (Wednesday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 94/1972 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 84/1922 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 96/1922 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 80/1964 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 92/1941 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 93/2006 (NCA ASOS) Record High temps for 4/16 (Thursday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 92/1972 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 78/1994 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 92/1972 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 82/2006 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 92/2006 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 91/1972 (NCA ASOS) Record High temps for 4/17 (Friday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 91/1976 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 83/2012 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 92/1972 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 82/1976 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 91/1972 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 91/2006 (NCA ASOS) && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196- 204-205. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RM/OJC AVIATION...SK/RJ MARINE...OJC  620 FXUS64 KLZK 142311 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 611 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 138 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 -Active pattern expected across the region...but only limited potential for thunderstorms/rainfall in Arkansas -First decent thunderstorm/rainfall potential for Arkansas late Wednesday night into Thursday morning -Next wave of thunderstorm/rainfall potential late Friday into Saturday as a cold front moves through the region -Cooler/drier weather expected late this weekend into early next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 138 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 An active weather pattern remains the main story through the next several days across the region...but much of AR remains on the ERN/SERN extent of most activity. Initially...only some small chances for isolated/widely scattered convection are forecast today/tonight...mainly for WRN/NWRN sections...with much better chances for more organized activity remaining west. Most areas of the LZK CWA should remain dry into Wed...with highs in the 70s and 80s. By late Wed into early Thu...upper level energy in the SW flow aloft will shift east slightly by Thu morning...with the potential for a bit more organized convection increasing further E/SE. Have increasing POPs for this as a result...with best POPs late Wed night into early Thu afternoon. Given the timing of this activity...the threat for strong/SVR convection looks relatively limited this time. Potential for precip decreases again for most locations late Thu into much of Fri as upper ridging moves over AR. By Sat/Sat night...an upper shortwave will drop SE across the Plains into the Great Lakes region...with a SFC cold front dropping SE across the Plains through AR. Expect increasing potential for convection with this SFC front as it passes SE through AR Sat. The potential for seeing any organized SVR Wx with this front looks fairly uncertain at this time. This will be due to either timing of the FROPA...and/or uncertainty in this timing and upper level features/SFC details. Cooler and more stable air will then settle across the region by late in the weekend into early next week behind this cold front. Temps will drop from the 70s and 80s...potentially some low 90s on Fri for highs...to the 60s and 70s behind the front. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 611 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Expect VFR flight category that will briefly become MVFR flight category due to lowering CIGS during Wednesday morning across the northern, western, and central sites of KHRO, KBPK, KHOT, KADF, and KLIT. A quick lifting of CIGS is expected as VFR flight category will return after a few hours. Low level wind shear will be present across all terminals late Tuesday evening into early Wednesday morning. Additionally, surface wind gusts will return to all sites on Wednesday afternoon in excess of 20 to 25 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 69 83 65 83 / 10 20 80 70 Camden AR 63 84 64 85 / 0 0 40 30 Harrison AR 67 78 61 81 / 40 60 90 50 Hot Springs AR 64 81 63 83 / 10 10 80 40 Little Rock AR 67 83 65 83 / 10 10 60 50 Monticello AR 64 85 67 86 / 0 0 20 30 Mount Ida AR 65 80 62 81 / 10 30 90 40 Mountain Home AR 67 79 61 82 / 30 50 90 60 Newport AR 68 85 66 83 / 10 10 60 70 Pine Bluff AR 65 85 65 85 / 0 0 40 40 Russellville AR 66 81 64 83 / 20 30 90 50 Searcy AR 64 83 63 83 / 10 10 70 60 Stuttgart AR 67 85 67 83 / 0 0 40 60 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....99 AVIATION...74  461 FXUS63 KICT 142313 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 613 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe thunderstorm threat this afternoon-evening, and again Wednesday afternoon-evening. - Additional thunderstorm chances and associated severe weather possible Friday afternoon-evening. - Well above average temperatures through Friday, cool down for the weekend. - Very high to extreme grassland fire danger west of I-135 today, and possibly again Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 220 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 THUNDERSTORMS: THIS AFTERNOON--EVENING...Scattered to at times numerous thunderstorms are possible after about 3-4pm, generally along/east of a line extending from Medicine Lodge to Hutchinson to McPherson, as low-level convergence drastically increases in response to a currently veered out dryline retreating rapidly back to the northwest. Of note...thick mid and upper level clouds are streaming in from the southwest (more widespread than forecast), which may limit peak heating, increase capping, support a later initiation time, and raise questions on how many thunderstorms are able to breach the cap. Nevertheless, a strong combination of buoyancy and deep layer shear will support supercells capable of all severe hazards with any storms that can form. Thinking the tornado threat will be greatest between roughly 5/6pm and 9/10pm with any discrete or semi-discrete supercells, as the low-level jet ramps up increasing low-level shear/SRH. Regarding storm mode/type...while an adequate component of the deep layer shear is oriented perpendicular to the dryline, there is a modest component oriented parallel as well, which should favor a gradual transition to mixed/linear storm mode as the evening progresses and with eastward extent, especially if storm coverage proves fairly numerous/widespread. Overnight, with increasing large scale ascent ahead of an approaching shortwave trough and the potential for decreasing convective inhibition, there could be additional thunderstorm development as far west as central KS in wake of this evening's departing activity. If capping doesn't prove too detrimental, shear/buoyancy combination would favor a continued severe weather threat. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON--EVENING...Despite the potential for numerous thunderstorms overnight, strong southerly flow ahead of the potent shortwave approaching from the west should be enough to adequately recover the pre-dryline airmass for additional thunderstorm chances Wednesday afternoon-evening, mainly east of the Kansas Turnpike. Given the stronger forcing, thinking storm initiation could be as early as 2-3pm. Another strong combination of buoyancy and deep layer shear should favor a severe threat, although we're thinking the strong forcing in concert with the shear vectors oriented mostly parallel to the dryline would likely support a mixed/messy/linear storm mode, which could tend to limit a higher-end severe threat. FRIDAY AFTERNOON--EVENING...Deterministic and ensemble consensus continues to support a reloading warm/moist/unstable sector by late week, as another western CONUS upper trough deepens. A sharpening dryline/cold front combination along with strong instability and strong shear look to be present. This could support another round of strong to severe thunderstorms as we head into late Friday. Still lots of uncertainty this far out regarding timing, placement, and amplitude of synoptic features, stay tuned. TEMPERATURES/WIND: Given rather persistent western CONUS troughing and associated lee troughing over the High Plains, breezy/gusty south winds and above average temperatures will persist through this entire work week. The warmest days look to be today, Thursday, and Friday when low-level thickness supports high temperatures in the 80s for most across the forecast area. As we head into the weekend, model consensus continues to support a cool down in wake of a strong cold front, with potential below average temperatures Saturday and Sunday, and even possible near freezing temperatures early Sunday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 604 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 As of 23Z, VFR conditions were prevailing across the region. Still anticipating thunderstorm development around or a little after 00Z this evening along and east of a KANY-KEWK line, although confidence in this occurring is beginning to decrease this evening. However, storms ongoing across Oklahoma may gradually gain latitude and push into southern and southeast Kansas later tonight. Storms are expected to be strong to severe with large hail, wind gusts over 50 knots, and perhaps a tornado or two possible. Continued with PROB30s at KICT and KCNU given the lack of confidence in storm coverage this evening into tonight. After 06Z tonight, while the initial round of storms will exit the region, some additional storm development is possible across south-central Kansas, but again, confidence is low on this outcome. Winds will stay breezy with the direction staying southerly through the overnight hours. During the day on Wednesday, an advancing dryline will cause winds to veer out to southwesterly or westerly during the afternoon hours. Also, storms are forecast to develop along and east of the Flint Hills. Elected to go with a PROB30 for KCNU for storms Wednesday afternoon to cover this possibility. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 220 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 TODAY...Low relative humidity and gusty southwest winds just west of a dryline will support VERY HIGH to EXTREME grassland fire danger west of Interstate 135. A red flag warning remains in effect through 8pm this evening west of I-135. FRIDAY...Another round of very high grassland fire danger is possible Friday afternoon generally west of Salina to Hutchinson. Stay tuned as we refine forecast details in the coming days. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033- 047-048-050-067-082-091. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADK AVIATION...JC FIRE WEATHER...ADK  877 FXUS64 KLUB 142314 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 614 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1227 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - A dryline will bring chances for severe storms to areas off the Caprock this afternoon and evening, with dry and windy conditions west of the escarpment. - Critical fire danger is expected this afternoon for western portions of the Caprock which have not seen beneficial rainfall over the past week. - Elevated to critical fire weather may return on Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 1227 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The lack of substantial large scale ascent overhead will continue to make today's forecast highly uncertain. However, all other thermodynamic parameters will be in place to support severe thunderstorms from this afternoon through early evening. A positively tilted trough will continue to move eastward across the Intermountain West this afternoon with the trough axis stretching into the southwestern US. There may be a weak short wave or two late this afternoon or evening moving through the southwest flow aloft. However, nothing is discernible currently on water vapor imagery. Furthermore, much of the lift from this trough will not arrive until late this evening into early Wednesday morning. An eastward moving dryline this afternoon will keep the deeper moisture off the caprock but there is little convergence on this low level feature. Therefore, there is no one favored location for convective development off the caprock this afternoon. Low level moisture will continue to be drawn up into the area early this evening as the dryline begins to retreat back westward. Although some CAM guidance convects on the dryline, the lack of ample large scale ascent and weak convergence along the dryline would only favor a few storms. As mentioned above, thermodynamic profiles will be favorable for severe storms. Afternoon storms will favor a large hail and damaging wind threat. Steep mid level lapse rates under a well mixed and warm near surface layer will yield mixed layer CAPE values anywhere between 1500 and 2500 J/kg off the caprock. High level cloud cover will at least somewhat inhibit mixing for the rest of the afternoon. This is also evident in latest CAM guidance waffling on convective initiation. The tornado potential will be low with afternoon convection due to the weak convergence along the dryline and nearly straight line hodographs. There will be very little curvature in the forecast low level hodographs supporting this low tornado threat. During the late afternoon into the early evening, the retreating dryline will see a higher chance for tornadoes as the low level jet rapidly increases. Low level turning will greatly increase during this time period contributing to the increased tornado threat along with the continued large hail and damaging wind threat. A pacific cold front will begin to impinge on the extreme southwestern Texas Panhandle early Wednesday morning and slowly progress across the FA through the morning and early afternoon hours. We will see deep boundary layer mixing on Wednesday tapping into a broad region of winds of 30-35kt at 700mb. The deep mixing will allow for relative humidity values to drastically drop on Wednesday afternoon, possibly into the single digits. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1227 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 At the moment, the long term forecast is trending drier. From Thursday into Friday the next short wave trough will be diving across the Intermountain West but remaining well north of the region. As this shortwave emerges onto the northern and central Plains on Friday, low level moisture will make a return. However, the far northern latitude of this trough will more likely bring fire weather conditions. The dryline should quickly mix eastward on Friday leaving the FA with very dry and breezy conditions. A fairly potent cold front will follow sometime late Friday into early Saturday which will bring much cooler temperatures for the weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 614 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 LBB could see visbys briefly reach MVFR in the next 1-2 hours from BLDU and stronger gusts near 35 knots. LLN recently fell to 4SM. Otherwise, TS are expected to remain well outside all terminals with only some -SHRA overnight. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>025- 027>030-033-034-039. Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>023-027>029. && $$ SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...93  339 FXUS62 KILM 142316 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 716 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... An Air Quality Alert has been issued for Horry County for fine particulates due to the large wildfire in southern Marion County. The AQA is in effect through tomorrow/Wednesday. 0z aviation discussion below. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Persistent dry weather and near-record warm temperatures may create fire weather hazards this week. 2) A cold front expected to arrive next Sunday will bring a low chance of showers and a cooler airmass early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Persistent dry weather and near-record warm temperatures may create fire weather hazards this week. A 500 mb ridge centered across Florida should expand northward over the next couple of days, leading to continued dry weather and above normal temperatures across the Carolinas. Ridging aloft will support Bermuda high pressure off the East Coast through the period. Dry soils and deep low level mixing will produce afternoon minimum RH in the low 30s or upper 20s. High temperatures have a reasonably good chance of reaching 90 degrees inland tomorrow, then exceeding 90 degrees on Friday and Saturday. Along the coast, south to southwest synoptic winds plus the afternoon seabreeze should keep high temperatures ~5 degrees cooler in Wilmington and ~10 degrees cooler at the beaches compared to inland areas. SPC has included a portion of the Carolinas in their Fire Weather Outlook tomorrow citing low humidity, a moderate southwest wind, and a unusually high Energy Release Component (ERC: an index utilizing fuel moisture to indicate how energetically heat will be released by burning woody fuels.) Similar conditions are expected through the weekend. Record highs coming up later this week: .............Wed Apr 15...Thu Apr 16...Fri Apr 17...Sat Apr 18 Wilmington......92 in 2006...90 in 2006...89 in 2006...93 in 1976 Lumberton.......92 in 2006...93 in 1941...91 in 2006...91 in 1941 Florence........94 in 2006...90 in 2006...93 in 2006...93 in 1981 N Myrtle Beach..90 in 2006...87 in 2006...87 in 1995...89 in 1976 KEY MESSAGE 2: A cold front expected to arrive next Sunday will bring a low chance of showers and a cooler airmass early next week. An upper trough pushing eastward across the Great Lakes Sunday will push a surface cold front into the Carolinas on Sunday. The latest GFS, Canadian, and ECMWF all show the front moving through during the afternoon hours, but also show only a tenuous and fading connection to any Gulf moisture. Precipitation along the front may be limited to just a smattering of showers or storms with 0-6 km bulk shear possibly too large for the limited moisture and instability present. Among the dozens of model ensemble members within the NBM, about 30 percent of them show at least .01" of rain across the area associated with Sunday's frontal passage. Increasing the PoP threshold to .10" cuts this to around 20 percent. This system appears unlikely to meaningfully alleviate deteriorating drought conditions across the area. The biggest impact from this front should be the arrival of a cooler airmass for Sunday night into Monday. Monday's predicted highs are in the low 70s, near to slightly below normal for mid April. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR. Smoke from area wildfires could impact visibility Wednesday morning, prior to late morning mixing deepens enough for any restrictions to become VFR haze. Confidence is low regarding the severity of restrictions. Winds generally out of the SSW through TAF period, with gusts 15-20 kts developing behind the sea breeze at coastal terminals Wednesday afternoon. Extended Forecast...Predominantly VFR through the week due to high pressure. Only exception could be some MVFR or even IFR fog heading into sunrise each morning. && .MARINE... Through Wednesday... Summer-like Bermuda high maintains quiet conditions today and Wednesday. Near the coast, winds will be enhanced by an afternoon sea breeze and gusts up to 20 knots. Inlets could be choppy. Seas 2-3 feet, up to 4 on the 20 nm periphery of the forecast zone due to a lingering 3-foot easterly swell and southerly wind wave. Wednesday night through Sunday... Not much change in the marine forecast for the rest of the week with dry weather and the S to SW wind direction continuing, with speeds varying from around 10 kt during the mornings to as much as 15-20 kt nearshore during the afternoons and evenings due to daily seabreezes. 2-3 ft seas will consist of an east-southeasterly 8-9 second swell plus local 4-5 second wind waves. Next chance of low rain chances and SCA conditions arrives late Sunday into Sunday night with gusts up to 25-30 kt with a cold fropa. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Wednesday night for SCZ054-058-059. MARINE...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...VAO KEY MESSAGES...ILM DISCUSSION...ILM AVIATION...VAO MARINE...MAS/21  816 FXUS63 KLMK 142318 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 718 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Well-above normal temperatures continue throughout the upcoming week. A few temperature records may be in jeopardy tomorrow. * Mostly dry through Wednesday. The next chance for widespread rainfall is expected Thursday, with some strong storms possible. * A stronger cold front will bring a chance for showers and storms again on Saturday. Another low-end threat for strong storms exists with this system. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 334 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s and lower 80s this afternoon under a mix of sun and clouds. Sfc winds have been gusty today due to steep low level lapse rates, with peak gusts between 20- 30 mph. We remain under the southeastern ridge, which has kept most precip off to our north and west. There are a few cells developing in a WAA zone with deeper moisture convergence and steeper lapse rates across IL, and the latest WoFs paintball runs support isolated to scattered convection across central IL and IN the remaining afternoon, with some potential for a few storms to approach our northernmost corner of the forecast area. According to mesoanalysis, we have destabilized to around 1500 J/kg of SBCAPE across along and north of the Ohio River. With effective bulk shear between 35-40kts, the environment is supportive for thunderstorms, but we lack any trigger to initiate. Will watch for any storms that sneak near the area, and monitor any development along any outflow. SPC has kept the marginal risk clipped in our northern corner, but any severe potential near our area will really be for central IN and OH. Dry weather is expected overnight, with mild temps only getting down into the 60s as we remain in a WAA pattern. Another warm and breezy day tomorrow, with highs in the mid to upper 80s, and gusty southwest winds up to 25 mph or so. The southeastern ridge will remain through tomorrow, keeping the axis of moisture transport and the parade of convection to our north and west as a shortwave pivots across the central US. We remain mostly dry tomorrow, with only an isolated to scattered chance for precip north of the Ohio River through the afternoon. By Wednesday night, that southeastern ridge will begin to erode, which will allow for PoPs to begin to creep eastward through the night. While most will remain dry until Thursday, some precip chances begin to arrive in our west overnight. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 334 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ===== Thursday through Friday ===== The southeastern ridge will break down toward the end of the week, which will open the corridor for higher precip chances in deep southwesterly flow. On Thursday, showers and storms are expected as an upper shortwave pivots across the Ohio Valley. While shower and storms are expected, there remains lower confidence on severe potential. SPC introduced a Marginal Risk, but there remains plenty of uncertainty to limit confidence. Model soundings show rather thick cloud cover and plenty of saturation in the column. Additionally, some model guidance indicates morning shower and storm activity, which could hinder afternoon destabilization for severe potential. However, effective bulk shear near 40kts will support some organization with any redevelopment through the day, so at least some storms will remain possible. Drier conditions are expected for most of Friday as brief upper ridging moves across the lower Ohio Valley. Temperatures are expected to reach the mid to upper 80s. By Friday night, another upper wave will move across the Plains, with a trailing cold front across the central Plains. This will result in a strengthening LLJ and moisture transport axis ahead of the front to support increasing precip chances. Not everyone will see rain Friday night, with the best chances across all of southern IN, but isolated chances along and north of the WK/BG Pkwys. ===== Weekend Outlook ===== The upper trough will likely amplify through the weekend, leading to higher confidence on a cold front to sweep through the forecast area sometime between Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning. WAA ahead of the front, combined with SW gusty gradient sfc winds, will help temps reach the 80s for most again, especially in our east where longer diurnal heating will occur as the front moves in from the west. Our highest chance for showers and storms through the day will arrive along or just ahead of the cold front. While upstream saturation and cloud cover will help limit instability parameters, strong forcing along the eastward-advancing front combined with favorable deep-layer flow will likely lead to a line of convection passing through sometime during the afternoon. The GEFS and GEPS ensembles indicate a 25-35% chance for SBCAPE values to exceed 750 J/kg Saturday afternoon. Additionally, deep layer shear parameters and steep low level lapse also add to the confidence in storm potential on Saturday. With a line of convection expected, mainly looking at a damaging wind threat on Saturday. Behind FROPA, expect tapering precip chances and winds shifting out of the northwest. Cooler post-frontal air will also be filtering in, leading to temps to drop into the 40s by Sunday morning. Precip chances will linger into Sunday morning, but are expected to fully exit the area by the middle of the day. We should also see increasing sunshine throughout the day as the front departs to the east. ===== Early Next Week ===== The upper trough will swing through sometime Sunday night or on Monday, though we will remain in a NW upper flow for the start of next week. Sfc high pressure will build across the area, leading to another dry stretch at least for Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures will be cool during this time, with highs on Monday in the 60s and highs on Tuesday in the low 70s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 717 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions condition tonight into tomorrow with SCT/FEW high level clouds. Wind gusts will start to back off for tonight, however return for the day tomorrow. A low-level jet will be located to the NW and could lead to a brief minimal period of LLWS tonight (05z- 08z). Mostly dry day tomorrow with a low chance (<20%) of scattered rain showers north of the Ohio River. HNB/SDF/BWG will see mid to high level BKN skies, while LEX/RGA will see mostly clear skies. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CJP LONG TERM...CJP AVIATION...CAL  987 FXUS63 KABR 142318 AAA AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 618 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A warming trend will continue over the next few days, peaking on Thursday. Highs Thursday afternoon will reach the upper 70s to mid 80s, roughly 20 to 25 degrees above mid-April normals. - The combination of warm temperatures and southerly winds of 25 to 30 miles per hour result in High to Very High Grassland Fire Danger. - A cold front will move through the area Friday, leading to below normal temperatures (highs in the 40s) and precipitation Friday and Saturday. Precipitation starts out as rain Friday afternoon before transitioning to snow as colder air moves in. && .UPDATE... Issued at 617 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The forecast remains on track this evening. No major changes are planned. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 202 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Above normal temperatures take hold this afternoon, with gentle winds across much of the forecast area. The broader setup in place is such that a jet streak aloft on the front side of a ridge clips the eastern part of the forecast area, leading to some potential for some isolated precipitation development over eastern South Dakota through Wednesday. Little to no accumulation is expected out of any development, as drier air near the surface will limit the ability of these rain showers to reach the surface. The warming trend will continue over the next couple of days, peaking on Thursday. Southerly flow into the area bring an additional boost of warm air advection, and will push 85-mb temperatures to roughly 15-19 degrees Celsius, well above the 90th percentile for this time of year. This translates to highs reaching the low to mid 80s across most of the forecast area Thursday. These surface temps are about 25 degrees above normal for mid-April, but all climate sites currently look like they will fall short of any record highs. The heat will help create elevated fire weather conditions over much of the area on Thursday when combined with gusty southerly winds. High to Very High Grassland Fire Danger is expected, and it remains entirely possible that a Red Flag Warning will be warranted. A longwave trough will develop over the western CONUS, developing a low pressure system into the Northern Great Plains Friday into Saturday. Precipitation is expected with this system, developing along and behind a cold front. The last couple of NBM runs have trended the heaviest precipitation northward and out of the Aberdeen forecast area, but still looking at ensemble median values around a tenth of an inch through Saturday. Temperatures out ahead of the front will be warm enough to support rain, but as the front brings colder air into the region a transition to snow will occur. A well- saturated profile will support snow to liquid ratios around 10:1 or higher, but QPF is limited after the precipitation type transition so only a couple of tenths of snowfall accumulation is currently expected. Behind the cold front, winds turn northwesterly and increase Friday afternoon. NBM probability of Wind Advisory criteria of 45 mile per hour gusts is holding steady for the moment, at a broad 10-30% chance. These post-frontal northwesterly flow regimes tend to be underdone, so the given probabilities are likely a bit low. On the other hand, current model guidance doesn't resolve much 40+ knot support in the upper levels until Saturday rolls around, so gusts mixing to the surface Friday may still be sub-advisory level. NBM chances Saturday afternoon are fairly similar to Friday's (10-30% chance of Wind Advisory criteria), but with slightly better upper- level wind speeds it may be more realistic to actually reach 45 mph at the surface. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 617 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions are expected through Wednesday afternoon. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...20 DISCUSSION...BC AVIATION...20  433 FXUS62 KCHS 142318 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 718 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation section updated for the 0Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Dry weather and above-normal temperatures will continue through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry weather and above-normal temperatures will continue through the weekend. Prominent ridging aloft and subtropical high pressure at the surface will continue to support dry weather and above normal temperatures through the weekend. The biggest story will be temperatures as upper 80s and low 90s are expected Wednesday and Thursday, followed by low to mid 90s for Friday and Saturday. Values along the immediate coast will be cooler thanks to the daily sea breeze, with the highest temperatures further inland. The best chance of threatening daily record highs will come Friday and Saturday. See the Climate section below for more information. Unfortunately, no rainfall is expected which will only serve to worsen the ongoing drought across the region. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions are expected to prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 0z Thursday. There could again be a period of shallow ground fog around sunrise on Wednesday and we have maintained the mention of shallow fog at all three TAF sites. By Wednesday afternoon, a sea breeze should advance across the terminals, turning winds from the south and increasing to 10 to 15 kts. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR. && .MARINE... Overall, still no significant change to the forecast through Sunday across the local waters. Subtropical high pressure to the east will be the primary feature, driving south to southwest flow across the waters with speeds mostly in the 10-15 knot range. There will be some local enhancement along the land/sea interface and in Charleston Harbor each afternoon and evening with the sea breeze. A cold front will approach from the west late in the weekend and could produce some modestly stronger flow ahead of it Saturday and Sunday. However, it looks like the front will likely pass through the waters Sunday night and into Monday meaning that any significant surge will likely occur just beyond the current marine forecast time period. Seas should remain within the 2-4 ft range. Rip Currents: A Moderate Risk of rip currents is expected at all beaches Wednesday and Thursday. The combination of 2-3 ft swell with a period of ~10 seconds and moderate onshore flow should be enough to increase the rip risk a bit. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: April 14: KSAV: 90/1922 April 16: KSAV: 92/1967 April 17: KCHS: 91/1967 KCXM: 86/2006 KSAV: 95/1967 April 18: KCHS: 92/1967 KSAV: 93/1967 April 19: KCHS: 91/1995 KCXM: 90/1917 KSAV: 92/1968 Record High Minimum Temperatures: April 19: KCHS: 66/1975 KCXM: 70/2002 KSAV: 69/1880 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$  718 FXUS63 KLBF 142318 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 618 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Moderate confidence in precipitation potential tonight into Wednesday - Moderate to high confidence in a return to near-critical fire conditions on Thursday as dry, warm, and breezy conditions return. - Moderate confidence in precipitation Friday and Friday night, with a low confidence of some light accumulating snow. - Moderate confidence in a cooler start to the weekend with temperatures returning to well above normal by early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Current radar imagery shows some widely scattered showers already occurring across portions of the Sandhills and into northern Nebraska this afternoon. A better potential for showers and isolated thunderstorms are still expected to develop late this afternoon and into the evening as a developing low pressure system over the Rockies begins to push eastward. At this time, the main low will remain just to the south along the Nebraska/Kansas border. This should keep the majority of the precipitation, not to mention severe potential, to the south and east. Some solutions still show some more organized convection developing across portions of southwest Nebraska by late evening. Current thinking is that these storms are not expected to be severe as the better instability and forcing remains to the southeast, some stronger wind gusts up to 50 mph or small hail cannot be ruled out. Overall, any precipitation we receive tonight and Wednesday morning will have limited QPF amounts... generally be under a quarter inch (0.25 inches), with up to a half inch (0.50 inches) possible in the heavier, more organized storms. The best potential to see any showers/storms will be between this evening, although some light showers may continue through sunrise. Lingering showers and embedded thunderstorms could continue into the early Wednesday morning hours, but overall coverage and intensity should diminish through the Wednesday morning hours and the main axis of precipitation moving off to the east through the afternoon. For temperatures, increasing clouds and precipitation will drop temperatures into the upper 60s to low 70s for Wednesday. Despite these cooler highs, they will still be nearly 10 degrees above normal. Overnight lows will also remain slightly above normal tonight through Wednesday night in the upper 30s to mid 40s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A return to dry conditions arrives on Thursday as weak ridging builds back into the central Plains. Warm air advection with 850 mb temperatures in the 12 to 16 C range will allow for surface highs to easily climb back into the low to mid 80s. These highs will be nearly 20 degrees above normal for this time of the year. Latest probability guidance suggests a maximum temperature over 80 degrees to be near 100 percent for locations generally east of US-83. Increasing the probability to over 85 degrees, much of that same area still has a nearly 70 to 80 percent or higher probability. In addition, looking at the latest EFI/SoT guidance, the EFI remain high (0.7 to 0.8), but SoT is fairly low. Therefore confidence is high that there may be some very warm, unseasonable temperatures, but not necessarily record-breaking high temperatures on Thursday. Would even expect the going forecasted highs to rise another couple degrees over the next few days potentially into the mid to upper 80s for much of the region. The drier conditions will be brief as the next system arrives Thursday night lasting into Saturday. An upper level trough will dig south along the Rockies Thursday night, pushing into the High Plains by Friday and into the central Plains by Saturday. This trough and associated front will bring some precipitation to the region beginning as early as Thursday night across northwest Nebraska and into the Pine Ridge. Precipitation will gradually push south and east during the day Friday. There is still some uncertainty in precip type and where the rain/snow cut off line will be. For the most part, after a brief period of rain Thursday night, will expect mostly all snow across the Pine Ridge as temperatures remain cooler in this region. Still, maximum temperatures are expected to rise into the low 40s by Friday afternoon in the Pine Ridge which may inhibit any snow or at least make accumulations more difficult. Further to the south and east, precipitation will start off as all rain, but as the trough pushes east and colder air behind it filters into the region, a gradual change over to snow is expected. Once the sun sets in the evening and temperatures drop into the low to mid 30s, any lingering precipitation will transition over to snow. How much snow falls will be highly dependent on the precipitation track and if any precipitation will remain over our area by the time temperatures drop enough for snow to accumulate. Looking at the latest probabilities, the highest potential (over 50 percent) to see accumulating snow will be across the Pine Ridge and in areas mainly north and west of a Ogallala to Valentine line which seems to line up well with where the coldest temperatures are expected. Accumulations are still uncertain, but will continue to monitor this over the next few days. Heading into the weekend, upper level ridging builds back across the western US with surface high pressure returning to the central Plains allowing for a dry weekend to prevail. There is some low end chance PoPs of some light lingering snow across portions of the Sandhills and into north central Nebraska on Saturday morning and early afternoon. Confidence is low in any precipitation development at this time and not expecting any significant impacts from snow if it does develop. Cold air advection will push 850 mb temperatures in the 0 to -6 C range into Nebraska keeping highs only in the 50s on Saturday. Overnight lows will also remain chilly int he low to mid 20s both Friday and Saturday nights. Temperatures gradually warm into the mid 60s to low 70s on Sunday and eventually back into the low to mid 80s by Tuesday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 625 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through tomorrow evening across western and north central Nebraska. The lone exception to this would be within any showers and thunderstorms tonight into tomorrow morning, where brief MVFR visibilities and gusty, erratic winds are possible. Winds shift from northeast this evening to north tonight and then to west by tomorrow afternoon, at 5 to 15kts. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for NEZ204-206-208>210-219. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kulik LONG TERM...Kulik AVIATION...Brown  091 FXUS64 KMEG 142318 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 618 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 618 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Daytime high temperatures through Friday will be more typical of late May or early June, as a strong upper level high pressure ridge continues to dominate the Midsouth's weather. Friday will likely be the warmest day of the week, with highs near 90 along and south of Interstate 40. - Despite the presence of the upper ridge, a passing disturbance will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday. - A cold front will pass through the Midsouth on Saturday, bringing another chance of showers and thunderstorms. Sunny, cool and less humid conditions will prevail for Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Monday) Issued at 1255 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The primary weather story through Friday remains the well-above normal temperatures. The near-record warmth is courtesy of an anonymously strong upper level ridge extending from the Gulf through the Southeast. Over the Midsouth, EPS shows forecast 500mb temperatures between the 95th and 99th percentile of model climatology, indicative of the upper ridge's strength. Friday will likely bring the warmest surface temperatures, with highs around 90 along and south of I-40. This would be a normal high temperature for Memphis in early/mid June. The stagnant upper air pattern will finally break down late this week. A positively-tilted upper trough will lift from the 4- corners area this afternoon to the upper Midwest by Thursday afternoon. This feature will suppress midlevel heights over the Midsouth and provide up to 50kt of 0-6km bulk shear around sunrise. Deep layer shear will decrease to 30 to 40kt Thursday afternoon, in advance of a trailing southern branch shortwave. 00Z LREF joint probabilities of 1000+ J/kg CAPE and 30+ kt of deep layer sheer exceed 50 percent for most of the Midsouth Thursday afternoon. Model soundings depict relatively straight hodographs and steep (7-7.5C/km) midlevel lapse rates, suggestive of large hail potential. This would particularly be the case along and north of the I-40 corridor, where deep layer shear is strongest. Transitory shortwave ridging will build into the Midsouth Thursday night. The ridge axis will be east of the Midsouth by Friday afternoon, while low level warm advection strengthens under diffluent flow aloft. A high amplitude northern branch trough axis will pivot through the Central Plains early Saturday morning, driving heights down over the mid-Mississippi River Valley, and over the Midsouth later on Saturday morning. A relatively strong surface cold front will follow the midlevel height falls, with passage through the Midsouth expected from late morning through late afternoon/early evening. This front will provide a break from the early summer-like heat, with highs Sunday generally in the upper 60s. Dewpoints will cool to the lower 30s, driving minimum RH levels below 30 percent Sunday afternoon, increasing fire danger for areas that don't receive wetting rainfall on Saturday. Temperatures will return to above normal early next week. Beyond then, substantial differences between the GEFS and EPS begin to emerge over the western CONUS, adding uncertainty beyond day 7 of the forecast. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 618 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 This TAF set is largely a persistence forecast. VFR conditions will remain across the airspace. Southwest winds will gust up to 30 kts beginning around 15Z tomorrow across all terminals. Gusts are expected to drop out by 00Z. AEH && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1255 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Fire weather concerns will be minimal throughout the week as MinRH remains above 30 percent. Wetting rain chances exist on Thursday for areas along and north of I-40. A cold front will bring additional rainfall anticipated Saturday, across a broad portion of the Midsouth. Despite cool temperatures on Sunday, MinRH values Sunday afternoon are expected to drop below 30 percent over the majority of the Midsouth. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB AVIATION...AEH  145 FXUS61 KAKQ 142320 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 720 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Added additional daily records for 4/17 (Fri), 4/18 (Sat) to the Climate Section. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Record to near-record high temperatures prevail through Thursday. 2) Continued dry with fire weather concerns expected for much of the week. 3) Well above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather continue through Saturday. A stronger cold front brings a chance for showers on Sunday, but it does not look at all like a widespread soaking rain. Many areas likely see less than 0.10". && .DISCUSSION... As of 315 PM EDT Tuesday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Record to near-record high temperatures prevail through Thursday. Surface high pressure has settled well offshore of the Carolina coast, with strong upper ridging situated from the Gulf coast to Southeast CONUS. High pressure will build into the western Atlantic during the next day or so. The resulting persistent return flow will lock in a very warm, dry SSW flow regime through Thursday. This Bermuda High setup, more typical of early to mid summer, will allow for record to near record high temperatures through Thursday. The primary difference from summer will be MUCH lower dew pts which will keep apparent temperatures at or below actual air temperatures, which is far more comfortable than typical summertime conditions. As of mid aftn, temperatures are primarily ranging through the mid to upper 80s with dew pts in the 50s and corresponding apparent T values in the 80s. Some places will likely reach ~90F for highs which would challenge daily records. Lows tonight will be in the low-mid 60s for most, with highs Wed-Thu a few degrees above today's values (into the low-mid 90s) given increasing 925-850 mb temperatures and continued deep mixing. Highs will be a few degrees cooler on the eastern shore. The current records at our long- term climate sites noted in the climate section below. KEY MESSAGE 2...Continued dry with fire weather concerns expected for much of the week. With high pressure dominating our weather pattern, and no appreciable precipitation expected through the end of the week, fire weather concerns will remain an issue to monitor for much of the rest of the week. After collaboration with VA State Forestry, have issued an Increased Fire Danger Statement for portions of VA where aftn gusts to around 20 mph are co-located with min RH values at or below 30%, along with highs around 90F. This generally includes all of central and east central. Similar conditions are likely Wed-Thu with minimum RH values averaging 25-30% inland and 30-35% closer to the coast through Thursday, keeping fire wx conditions around critical fire wx thresholds through much of the week. KEY MESSAGE 3...Well above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather continue through Saturday. A stronger cold front brings a chance for showers on Sunday, but it does not look at all like a widespread soaking rain. Many areas likely see less than 0.10". Slightly cooler mid 80s to around 90F on Friday as a weak shortwave brings more cloud cover to the area. Moisture return ahead of this feature will be meager, so only isolated showers are possible on Friday with that shortwave (mainly confined to the far N). Rain amounts will likely be a few hundredths of an inch at best, and most areas will stay dry (latest 12Z models are drier than last night's 00Z runs as well). Very warm/hot and dry (lower 90s inland) for Saturday as upper heights build again. The global models and ensembles show continuity and high confidence that a stronger front crosses the area on Sunday as low pressure tracks into Ontario/Quebec. While moisture return ahead of this front will be better than what is expected on Friday, it does not look promising for a widespread soaking rain. Isolated to perhaps scattered showers are possible during the day, with a low chc of a tstm. Ensemble probs of 0.10"+ of rain are 40-60% across the NE 1/2 of the area, and even lower for interior NE NC and south central VA. Cooler wx returns behind the front early next week, with highs mainly in the 60s to near 70F and lows down into the upper 30s to mid 40s for Mon night/Tue AM. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 720 PM EDT Tuesday... High pressure offshore of the region will favor VFR conditions through the 00z/15 TAF period and beyond. Skies will be mostly clear outside of high clouds through the period. SW winds average 5 to 10 knots tonight, increasing to ~10 to 12 knots Wednesday afternoon with some gusts to around 20 knots. Outlook: VFR and dry conditions are expected to prevail through Saturday. Mainly S-SW winds also prevail throughout the forecast period, as high pressure settles over the western Atlantic. && .MARINE... As of 245 PM EDT Tuesday... -Generally sub-SCA through the end of the week with a brief surge in winds Thurs night -Stronger, more prolonged SCA conditions possible late in the weekend into early next week. High pressure anchored offshore and ridging in over the east coast will remain more or less in place for the next few days. Benign marine conditions prevail today and through the rest of the mid week period. SW-S winds will stay at 10-15kt through at least Thurs evening. Daytime heating and mixing will lead to winds becoming gustier over land, so nearshore waters will also be gusty during the day with gusts up to 20kt. Seas will stay around 3ft during this time period with waves in the bay/rivers at 1-2ft. A weak cold front moves in over the waters Thurs night into Friday. Pressure gradient tightens slightly ahead of it, resulting in a brief bump up in the winds overnight. Expecting winds to pick up to 15-20kt with highest winds over the open ocean. Seas will build to 4ft and perhaps 5ft out near 20nm. Cannot rule out a brief SCA Thurs night, but confidence is low given the unimpressive front and marginal conditions that are forecast. And on that note, not expecting a post-frontal surge either. Looking ahead to the weekend, forecasting benign conditions Friday and Saturday. A stronger front is expected Sunday that may bring strong SCA conditions. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temps for 4/14 - 4/18 Record Record Record RecordRecord High/Yr High/Yr High/Yr High/Yr High/Yr Location 4/14 4/15 4/16 4/174/18 -------- ---- ----- ------ ------ ------ Richmond 90 (1977) 92 (1941) 93 (1976) 96 (1976) 95 (1976) Norfolk 90 (1941) 90 (2024) 91 (1976) 93 (2002) 95 (1896) Salisbury 87 (1941) 87 (1941) 89 (1976) 92 (2002) 90 (1976) Eliz. City 90 (1941) 91 (1941) 90 (1941) 92 (1976) 91 (1941) Record High Min Temps for 4/14 - 4/18 Record Record Record Record Record High High High High High Min T/Yr Min T/Yr Min T/Yr Min T/Yr Min T/Yr Location 4/14 4/15 4/16 -------- ---- ----- ------ Richmond 65 (1899) 64 (2018) 64 (1912) 65 (1912) 64 (2002) Norfolk 68 (2019) 68 (1941) 66 (2017) 68 (2002) 68 (2002) Salisbury 65 (1945) 64 (2002) 63 (2017) 64 (2002) 65 (1918) Eliz. City 68 (2019) 68 (1974) 68 (1994) 68 (1945) 65 (2002) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ERI/LKB AVIATION...AJB/LKB MARINE...AC CLIMATE...MAM  873 FXUS63 KGLD 142321 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 521 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Red Flag Warning is in effect for portions of the area Tuesday afternoon and evening, mainly along and south of I-70 where warm temps, low humidity and SW winds at 20-30 mph gusting to 45 mph may lead to rapid wildfire growth. - Rain showers and isolated storms are possible late this afternoon and evening mainly across the Tri-State border counties. Severe weather is unlikely but there is a 10% or less chance of a rogue wind gusts around 60 mph. - Breezy S to SW winds and critical fire weather possible over portions of the area, yet again, on Thursday. - A strong cold front Friday afternoon may drop temperatures below freezing overnight Friday and Saturday. Light snowfall may occur behind the front as well. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 101 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Front is pushing south through the area with dew points increasing behind it. This front is forecast to start retreating back north through the day as a warm front. A developing surface low across Colorado will be the dictating feature that will determine when and the northern extent of this. Red Flag Warning will remain but have significant concerns for the duration of the northern and eastern extent of the warning due to timing of the retreating warm front. The strongest of the winds will be to the south of the warm front where winds remain from the WSW and winds gust around 40 mph. Late this afternoon and evening rainfall chances still look to increase with the warm front, additional lift due to the low and an approaching 500mb shortwave and associated jet streak. The favored area is across Yuma, Dundy and Cheyenne (KS) this evening where high based showers characterized by inverted v soundings are in place. I do have some concern for 50-60+ mph winds with any downdrafts. Winds also may be able to mix from pressure rises on its own as well as RAP and HRRR suggest 6-8mb rises over 3 hours with the GFS being the strongest at 10mb over 3 hours. Rain chances may extend a little further south but again will be dependent on the placement of the low and where the dry slot will set up. Guidance suggests that deep saturation and perhaps even the most favorable timeframe from light rain will occur early Wednesday morning through the early afternoon as the low continues to move through the area so have increased rain chances through the morning hours. Northwest flow is forecast to be in place through the day on Wednesday with high temperatures in the 70s. Guidance is coming into agreement on a tighter pressure gradient in wake of the low with wind gusts around 30 mph across the entire area. Due to the progression of the low am forecasting these winds to ease up in magnitude as the afternoon goes on. Thursday, surface troughing is forecast to be in place across the area. A very dry airmass is also forecast to be in place as well along with warm temperatures as high temperatures reach the 80s across the area. The combination of this is leading to high confidence in single digit humidity values for most if not all of the forecast area. Do have concerns for critical fire weather but at this time winds look to be fairly marginal. Am opting to forego any fire weather highlights at this time to ensure that the signal for winds remains and does not degrade which has been the trend over the past few days. Thursday night and into the extended period a strong cold front is forecast to move into the area shifting winds to the north. If there is a fire ongoing that is something to be aware of. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 218 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A high amplitude shortwave upper-level trough looks to be making its way across the Rocky Mountains beginning Friday morning, with a modest 50-70 kt jet streak at 500-mb across the Four-Corners Region. A broad surface low pressure is favored to already exist from the Midwest back into Eastern Colorado in association with these upper- level features, and may continue to deepen throughout the day, particularly across portions of the Central and South-Central High Plains where lee cyclogenesis is favored. A strong cold front looks to begin traversing the forecast region sometime Friday afternoon, though there are some issues as to the exact timing. This matters because critical fire weather conditions may be experienced ahead of the cold front. Current forecast guidance shows mid to upper-teen relative humidities (RH) across portions of East-Central Colorado and West-Central Kansas, with wind gusts in the 25-40 mph range possible during the early to mid-afternoon. Critical fire weather conditions could be mitigated with a faster progression of the cold front, or enhanced by a slower progression. LREF guidance currently shows a large amount of variance in wind direction across portions of Northwest Kansas and Eastern Colorado Friday morning, highlighting issues regarding the front's timing. Around 60% of GEFS and EC members show a scenario where the cold front progresses faster, and thus, would mitigate the critical fire weather risk. LREF guidance would seem to support this solution, suggesting at best a 1 in 3 chance for RH values to meet critical fire weather criteria across portions of Western Kansas, and less for the rest of the region. Confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed Friday afternoon sits at around 5%. Friday evening may be accompanied by a freeze overnight behind the cold front, in addition to an opportunity for snowfall. Lows are currently forecast in the lower-20s to lower-30s Friday night across the region, with as high as a 60% chance for light snowfall across portions of Northeastern Colorado and far Southwest Nebraska. NBM guidance suggests over a 40% chance across this zone that the snowfall is measurable (>0.1 inches). Reduced visibilities due to blowing snow may also be experienced, as NBM guidance indicates that sustained winds over 25 mph can't be ruled out. Cooler conditions could last into Saturday, with highs forecast in the mid-50s to lower-60s. Critical fire weather conditions may once again be experienced across portions of Eastern Colorado and West-Central Kansas, where RH values are forecast in the mid to upper-teens, and wind gusts in the 25-40 mph range. NBM guidance suggests a 60-80% chance for wind gusts to meet criteria for critical fire weather conditions across this zone, with LREF guidance giving RH values a 50-70% chance. Even so, confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed across this zone is only about 5% due to the strength and duration of the cold front from Friday into Saturday, which may keep RH values a bit more elevated. While deterministic model guidance is a lot more divergent past Sunday morning, GEFS and EC 500-mb height mean-spread guidance suggests ridging is favored across the forecast region Sunday morning through the end of the period. Conditions look to be warm and dry, with highs in the 70s on Sunday, and 80s Monday and Tuesday. RH values continue to be forecast on the lower end, with upper single-digits to lower-teens on Sunday, and low to mid-teens Monday and Tuesday. Critical fire weather conditions may be experienced all three days, though confidence decreases for Monday and Tuesday due to timing issues of a slow-moving upper-level trough from the west. Sunday's risk seems highest, as LREF guidance suggests a 3 in 4 chance for RH values to meet criteria across most of the area, with NBM guidance yielding over 50% probabilities for wind gusts to meet criteria. Confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed Sunday is around 10%. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 518 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. A cold front moving through Wednesday morning will bring a few hours of low to mid clouds, possibly MVFR at times, through about 18z before clearing out. A brief shower will be possible at KMCK during that time as well. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for KSZ013>016-027>029-041-042. CO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ253-254. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Trigg LONG TERM...Davis AVIATION...024  048 FXUS64 KFWD 142323 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 623 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorm activity this evening should largely remain north and west of our forecast area (low, 20% chance that a stray decaying storm enters our far western counties tonight). - An active pattern with chances for showers and storms will persist this week. There is potential for strong to severe storms again on Wednesday. - A strong cold front on Saturday is expected to bring much cooler temperatures and drier weather to end the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 1045 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 While there is a threat of strong to severe storms today and tomorrow, the threat in our forecast area will be isolated and largely confined to areas northwest of D/FW. Our entire forecast area is in an expansive open warm sector with a dryline over West Texas. Ahead of the dryline, an open gulf is promoting dense stratus that has pooled underneath a hearty cap that was based around 880 mb on this morning's sounding. Modest lift from heating will deepen the boundary layer this afternoon (latest aircraft sounding now has the cap around 860 mb), but the absence of a more robust source of lift will limit deep convection to areas near the dryline later today and this evening. The dryline is forecast advance as far east as about Fredrick to Snyder even down to the Big Bend region of Texas this afternoon by the time thunderstorms initiate. Above the cap, quite steep lapse rates and sufficient shear exist for supercells to develop quickly, well to the west of our forecast area. The storms should advance east-northeast off the boundary, likely growing upscale into a few clusters or bowing segments overnight. These are the storms that should move into the western parts of our forecast area this evening, not the robust initial supercells that are driving SPC's Enhanced risk to our northwest. The storms that move into our area this evening will be driven by their own cold pools and moving into an increasingly stable environment, particularly after about 10 pm local. So while a few storms/clusters will be able to break the cap with the help of their own cold pool, expect storms to decay as they advance east toward the I-35 corridor. While not explicitly mentioned above, we will also have to watch storms currently near the Big Bend area that could move into Western Central Texas late tonight/early tomorrow morning. The same caveats about moving into an increasingly stable environment also apply to these storms. Another warm and humid night, under dense gulf stratus, is forecast tonight as the dryline retreats west. There is a chance of scattered elevated showers, perhaps a few thunderstorms, across North Texas tomorrow morning. The lift causing these storms should be diffuse and broad, so pinpointing the exact location of this activity is difficult, even at this time range. Given how steep the lapse rates aloft are, we can't rule out a few instances of large hail if robust updrafts are able to organize. There should be a lull in activity in the late morning into early afternoon before thunderstorm activity ramps back up later in the day. The dryline is forecast to nudge a little further east tomorrow, stalling near Wichita Falls to Abilene with a triple point in SW Oklahoma. We expect another round of storms to develop near/east of the dryline (especially near the triple point) that move east-northeast through the evening, weakening overnight. A majority of the CAMs initiate simulated reflectivity returns, that appear to be thunderstorms, in the open warm sector tomorrow afternoon along and east of the I-35 corridor, but forecast soundings don't really support deep/surface-based convection. It appears that most of the simulated reflectivity blobs are showers initiated within the boundary layer, while the deepest/strongest convection remains to our west/northwest near the dryline. We'll be watching to see if the low-level stratus thins out and promotes stronger surface heating, which would help a few more updrafts break the cap ahead of the dryline. The chance of this is around 10-20% if I had to put a number on it. All of this to say, while there is another threat of strong to severe storms again tomorrow, the severe threat in our area should be isolated and largely confined to areas northwest of D/FW. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1045 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Subtle ridging aloft is forecast to move over the state on Thursday, choking thunderstorm chances as we head into Thursday. Even though the surface pattern remains unchanged (staying in the warm sector with a dryline to our west), we do not have any precip mentioned in the forecast Thursday. As a result, it should be a warm to hot day with high temps in the upper 80s and heat index values in the low 90s. Similar weather is forecast Friday, but a little cooler high temperatures as the wind field backs out out of the south-southeast. A cold front is forecast to slide down the plains Friday night, moving through North and Central Texas Saturday. This will be a rather strong cold front for this time of the year, lowering highs from the upper 80s on Thursday to the low 70s/upper 60s Saturday and Sunday. After about a week of sustained southerly flow, the front will be able to squeeze some rain out of the atmosphere. Most of the activity will develop near the front and last for only a couple hours before moving south. Average rain amounts Saturday are generally less than 0.25" due to the quick-moving and light nature of the precip. A reinforcing high pressure system will move into the region Sunday night and Monday, keeping below-normal temperatures in place early next week. Southerly flow returns by Tuesday, bringing temperatures to near the seasonal norms by the middle parts of next week. We'll have to watch for quick-moving systems moving across the region that develop precip, but those details will come into focus a little later. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 618 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 FEW to SCT ILS cigs at 3-5 kft will likely persist through much of the evening and early overnight before MVFR cigs return to both KACT and the D10 terminals after 07Z-08Z later tonight. There is a low chance for high IFR cigs for a few hours around sunrise Wednesday morning. MVFR cigs will hang around until 19Z-20Z Wednesday afternoon. Thunderstorm activity will remain well west and northwest of the TAF sites through the overnight. There is potential for some disorganized shower activity in the morning and early afternoon within the Metroplex, but timing that precip will be difficult until it is determined how the overnight thunderstorms out west evolve. Right now, we have included a VCSH group from 12Z-16Z in the Metroplex TAFs for tomorrow morning. If this activity develops later (closer to 17Z-19Z early Wednesday afternoon), it could be more robust and contain occasional lightning. This potential and need for a VCTS group will be re- evaluated in future TAF updates. It is more likely that this more robust activity develops east of the Metroplex tomorrow afternoon. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1232 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 69 81 67 87 / 40 50 40 0 Waco 68 79 67 85 / 10 40 30 0 Paris 67 79 65 83 / 30 50 70 10 Denton 67 80 65 87 / 50 60 30 0 McKinney 68 80 66 85 / 40 50 50 0 Dallas 69 81 67 88 / 30 50 40 0 Terrell 68 81 66 85 / 10 50 50 0 Corsicana 69 84 68 88 / 10 40 40 0 Temple 68 83 67 87 / 10 30 30 0 Mineral Wells 66 81 64 88 / 50 60 20 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Bonnette LONG TERM....Bonnette AVIATION...Langfeld  369 FXUS61 KBOX 142324 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 724 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes, the forecast remains on track. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered late day and evening showers and thunderstorms with a low risk of severe weather. - Summerlike warmth continues Wednesday away from the coast, but backdoor front will bring cooler temps to portions of eastern MA. Another round of scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms with a low risk for severe weather. - Temperatures trend milder western MA/CT and cooler in eastern MA/RI Thurs-Sat, with periods of showers/t-storms mainly focused on Fri. - Strong cold frontal passage Sunday ushers in cooler temperatures for early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Scattered late day and evening showers and thunderstorms with a low risk of severe weather. Latest hi-res guidance has delayed onset of scattered convection moving into SNE to late in the day and this evening. We still have height rises into early afternoon then weak height falls developing late today and this evening as a weak shortwave passes to the north. There are favorable mid level lapse rates approaching 7 C/km and there is sufficient 0-6km shear for storm organization. However, instability is marginal with MLCAPES generally 500-1000 J/kg and with potential convection delayed into the evening instability will be diminishing. Also forcing for ascent is marginal as well. So while there are some conflicting signals for severe weather, if robust convection can get going to the north and west later this afternoon favorable deep layer shear should be enough to support a few strong to severe storms with the timing mainly from 5-10 pm across northern and western MA where HREF is showing some updraft helicity tracks. Strong to damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat but can't rule out some hail given steep mid level lapse rates and favorable deep layer shear. KEY MESSAGE 2...Summerlike warmth likely to continue Wednesday away from the coast, but backdoor front will bring cooler temps to portions of eastern MA. Another round of scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms with a low risk for severe weather. Backdoor front expected to slip southward into NE MA Wed morning and eventually move through rest of eastern MA by late afternoon but timing is uncertain. 925 mb temps 20-21C south and west of the boundary which will result in temps reaching low-mid 80s, especially across CT and portions of central/W MA which will remain on the warm side of the boundary. Meanwhile, temps will likely fall into the 50s in NE MA with temp forecast uncertainty highest across interior E and SE MA which will be close to the boundary. It is possible temps here warm well into the 70s and possibly lower 80s before the front moves through then falling sharply by late afternoon but this will depend on the timing of the front. Another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms expected Wed afternoon into the evening as another low amplitude shortwave approaches. Environment is fairly similar to today with MLCAPES 500- 1000 J/kg although mid level lapse rates are less favorable. 0-6 km shear is up to 40 kt which is quite favorable for storm organization. Hi-res CAMs do show varying areal coverage of convection developing into the afternoon in the interior then eventually becoming focused near the south coast during Wed night. CSU machine learning probs and Nadocast showing low risk for severe across the interior so can't rule out a few strong to severe storms again with damaging wind the primary threat. HREF severe wind probs are a bit lower tomorrow and focused across CT. KEY MESSAGE 3...Temperatures trend milder western MA/CT and cooler in eastern MA/RI Thurs-Sat, with periods of showers/t-storms mainly focused on Fri. Challenging temperature and rain chances forecast Thurs and Fri as unseasonably warm temperature profiles aloft are met with quasi- zonal mid-level flow with several hard-to-time impulses (some convectively-influenced) moving through the WSW flow. There is also the potential for a backdoor frontal boundary to bring significantly cooler temperatures to at least eastern and northeast MA, but potentially as far westward as central MA and RI. Ended up keeping a rather generic/broad-brush to PoPs, with lesser chances on Thurs and most of the day could be dry. Better chances could exist on Fri with NWP showing a stronger/more-coherent shortwave disturbance moving in. For temps, modified NBM highs Fri and Sat to bring cooler temps (mid 60s to low 70s) along the eastern MA coast to RI/central MA, but highs should end up well into the 70s to lower 80s in western MA/CT under SW winds. Highs are somewhat cooler on Fri with more cloud cover and periods of showers/t-storms, in the 60s to low 70s. By Sat, we become more entrenched in cooler onshore flow with highs in the 50s to mid 60s. The potential exists for large temperature busts given placement of the backdoor frontal boundary. KEY MESSAGE 4...Strong cold frontal passage Sunday ushers in cooler temperatures for early next week. Strong cold front moves in for the latter half of the weekend bringing a risk for showers and thunderstorms for Sunday. Passage of this front will usher in an unseasonably cool airmass (850 mb temps as low as -8C Mon). Expect cool temperatures more typical of early/mid March vs mid-April, with highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s, but blustery conditions will make it feel quite a bit cooler. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Tonight...Moderate Confidence VFR. Steady west winds shifting to northwest after 06Z. A line of showers and thunderstorms moves over interior terminals between 00Z and 02Z. -TSRA most likely west of BOS/BED but can't completely rule out thunder chances at those terminals. West wind gusts to 30+ knots possible when the line moves through BDL/ORH. Tomorrow...High Confidence in trends. VFR through about 18Z. Then MVFR ceilings settling in. Sea- breeze likely at BOS again between 16-17Z. Additional rounds of -SHRA/-TSRA possible tomorrow afternoon and evening. Tomorrow Night...High Confidence MVFR/IFR ceilings with -SHRA and light and variable winds. KBOS Terminal... Moderate confidence in TAF. This afternoon's sea-breeze/stable marine air should weaken the line of thunderstorms to a line of showers by the time it reaches the terminal. High confidence in a sea-breeze again tomorrow. KBDL Terminal... Moderate confidence in TAF. The line of showers and storms should reach BDL by 0030-0100Z. Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/... Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. SCA for outer southern waters through tonight for marginal seas. S- SW winds will gust to 20+ kt at times, shifting to E over NE MA waters during Wed with SW flow persisting over southern waters. Variable winds Wed night less than 20 kt, mostly N-NE over NE MA waters and SW over southern waters. Late night and early morning fog possible. Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/... Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. Saturday through Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. && .CLIMATE... Upcoming record highs: Tue 4/14 Boston 83 in 2023 Hartford 96 in 2023 Providence 87 in 2023 Worcester 90 in 2023 Wed 4/15 Boston 82 in 1896 Hartford 88 in 1941 Providence 82 in 1938 Worcester 85 in 1941 && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ255-256. && $$ DISCUSSION...KJC/Loconto AVIATION...Dooley/RM MARINE...KJC CLIMATE...Nocera  622 FXUS63 KTOP 142326 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 626 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... -A similar setup to yesterday means another Red Flag Warning behind the dryline and a threat for severe storms east of the boundary today. -Another round of storms is possible Wednesday, mainly in far eastern KS. -A very dynamic system impacts the region Friday, bringing another threat for severe weather. -Much cooler weather is expected this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 151 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Early this afternoon, water vapor satellite imagery showed an upper level trough extending from the central Rockies, southwest across AZ. A broad area of southwesterly mid-level flow of 45 to 60 KTS extended from northern Mexico, northeast across NM/west TX into the Plains and upper Midwest. Late this morning, a cold front extended from eastern MN, south- southwest across eastern NE, then southwest into eastern CO. A dryline line extended south-southwest from the cold front in eastern NE, to east of Marysville, to near ABI, then south-southwest to west of Anthony, KS, then southwest across far western OK. Ahead of the dryline dewpoints were in the lower to mid 60s, with upper 60 to lower 70 dewpoints across southeast KS. West of the dryline, dewpoints were in the lower 40s to lower 50s. Thia afternoon through Tonight: Interesting that the most CAMs are showing the richer moisture mixing out ahead of the dryline along and north of I-70. The richer surface moisture may only extend from near ICT, northeast across the southeast counties of the CWA, to the southeast of I-35. However, the NSSL-WRF and 4KM NAM shows thunderstorms developing along the dryline between Seneca and MHK. The other CAMs show thunderstorms developing along the dryline across north central OK/south central KS, then tracking northeast along and southeast of I-35. A surface low will deepen across western KS, thus the dryline will probably reach a Seneca, to MHK, to Abilene line by 5 PM before retrograding west this evening. Any discrete supercell that develops along the dryline late this afternoon and early evening will produce large hail, 2 inches or greater, localized damaging wind gusts, along with possible tornadoes. The environment ahead of the dryline south of I-70, will posses MLCAPES of 3000-3500 J/kg, effective shear of 50 KTS, and curved low-level hodographs that will produce stream-wise horizontal vorticity in the sfc-1KM depth for strong low-level vertical vorticity, once a storm's updraft tilts the horizontal vorticity into the vertical, then stretched. We will be doing a 19Z special sounding to see if some of the CAMs are correct in mixing out the richer moisture north of I-70 ahead of the dryline. Overall, I would say storm coverage will be greater south of I-70 with initial discrete supercells late this afternoon into the early evening, then line segments developing as scattered supercells merge, along with line segments from merging supercells across south central/north central OK that will move northeast across the southeast counties during the mid and late evening hours. Tonight, the dryline will retrograde west into north central and central KS. I can't rule out some isolated elevated thunderstorms late tonight into early Wednesday, as a 50 to 60 KT LLJ develops through the early morning hours, which could provide enough ascent for a few elevated storms. Wednesday through Wednesday night: The H5 trough across the central Rockies and southwest US will lift northeast across the Plains but will dampen as it moves east. The surface low will move northeast along the border into west central IA by 00Z. A Pacific cold front will overtake the dryline. The question will be how fast will the Pacific front shift east across the CWA. The NAM, ECMWF, and GFS show the Pacific front across most of the CWA by 21Z. Thunderstorms may develop across the southeast counties, but veering surface winds will probably cause a line of storms to develop. This line may produce isolated severe wind gusts in the southeast counties but most of the severe weather will be east of the CWA. Thursday, we will see a break in the thunderstorms, as an amplified H5 trough digs southeast from the Pacific northwest into the west central US. A down stream H5 ridge will move east across the Plains. The Pacific front will undergo frontolysis across southeast KS and northern OK on Thursday. The winds will become southerly through the day on Thursday. Friday through Saturday morning: The H5 trough across the west central US will dig southeast across the Plains Friday night into Saturday morning. Ahead of the H5 trough in the warm sector, thunderstorms will develop along the cold front and dryline during the afternoon hours. MLCAPE will probably be above 2000 J/KG and there will be good vertical wind shear as the the surface low deepens across west central KS during the afternoon hours. All the longer range models are in agreement though the GFS is a bit more amplified and progressive over the ECMWF and Canadian. The question will be the strength of forcing ahead of the H5 Trough. Strong ascent may allow for numerous storms to develop and these storms may congeal into a line of storms during the afternoon and evening hours. The line will move east out of the CWA late Friday night into Early Saturday morning. The weekend will be cooler behind the front with highs Saturday in the mid to upper 50s. There may be some light rain showers through the morning until the H5 trough shifts east of KS. More insolation will help high temperatures to warm into the mid 60s to around 70 degrees. Sunday morning there may be a freeze across the northern counties with lows of 29-30 degrees. The remainder of The CWA may see frost develop with lows of 33 to 36 degrees. An H5 ridge will move east across the Plains Monday and Tuesday. Expect a warm-up with highs in the lower to mid 70s Monday and mid 70s to around 80 on Tuesday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 626 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Thunderstorm potential to impact the terminals early in the forecast continues to diminish with time with a lack of strong focusing or forcing mechanism. Better forcing looks to come after 03Z as a front enters northern Kansas with storms potential moving into the terminals after this. Have moved any mention to this window but this remains a low confidence forecast. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 345 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The Red Flag Warning has been issued for today in north- central KS due to low RH and strong south-southwest winds behind the dryline. These conditions will combine to create extreme fire danger again this afternoon. Minimum RH behind the dryline could quickly fall to below 20 percent as dew points drop. South- southwest winds will be sustained at 15 to 20 mph with gusts as high as 40 mph throughout the afternoon. Tomorrow a Pacific cold front will move through north central KS. The dewpoints will only be around 30 percent during the afternoon hours and westerly winds will be lighter. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008-KSZ020- KSZ034. && $$ DISCUSSION...Gargan AVIATION...Poage FIRE WEATHER...Teefey/Gargan  717 FXUS63 KEAX 142326 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 626 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Active weather pattern continues with multiple chances for strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon, tomorrow and again Friday night. * Warm temperatures (upper 70s to low/mid 80s) are expected to persist through the work week, with cooler and drier conditions expected this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 113 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Residual cloud cover has mostly mixed out this afternoon with strong surface heating sending temperatures into the low to mid 80s. Strong/deep mixing is starting and dewpoints are starting to drop at Topeka and into east central Kansas. This for now is leading to a fairly diffuse dryline and poor low level convergence. Although high clouds streaming in over Kansas and Oklahoma show at least some signal for an increase in modest large scale ascent in a few hours. ACARS soundings show a modest inversion and modified RAP soundings with ACARS input show a convective temp around 85 to 87 F. Most high resolution guidance sets the strongest part of the dryline up from about Ottawa, KS to St. Joseph, MO by 3 to 5 pm but it looks too diffuse to be a slam-dunk zone for convective initiation. Most CAM guidance initiates convection along the leading edge of an upper level ripple (likely shown by the high clouds in KS/OK) in southeast Kansas by 4 to 5 pm and sends it northeastward into the forecast area in the late afternoon and evening - and that appears to be the most likely scenario. By that time T/Td spreads will be about 25 to 30 degrees with lower level flow at 20 to 30 kts out of the southwest. CAM guidance (again probably reasonably) favors multi-cell clusters that try to organized into a few isolated bowing segments as they move northeastward. This would pose a threat for damaging wind with deeper cores producing a large hail threat given the fairly steep mid level lapse rates and available deep layer shear. Hodographs are favorable enough for some tornado threat, particularly if any cells maintain discrete elements. Rain chances then look to decrease through the overnight. Wednesday the shortwave trough axis currently over the Rockies pushes through the region and sends the cold front currently lagging back over the high Plains towards the area. This looks to create much better shower/storm coverage, as well as sparking things off earlier in the day, with showers and storms becoming more likely by early to mid afternoon. Some severe threat (wind/hail) looks to accompany this activity as well. Although instability/diurnal heating will be more limited by cloud cover and the time of day which may mitigate the threat. The cold front clears the area Wednesday night but we get back into return flow almost immediately on Thursday with dewpoints reloading into the mid 60s. Light low level warm air advection may spark a shower or two in this period but the main focus will be on Friday night into Saturday. A strong/sharp shortwave trough interacts with the exit region of a 120kt or so southwesterly jet maxima moving out of the southern Plains, creating strong ascent and spinning up a 991mb or so surface low in the lee of the Rockies that quickly moves northeastward into the western Great Lakes. There appears to be yet another severe weather threat with this period (SPC maintains a 30% Day 4 risk). Convective mode may be messy however due to strong large scale ascent and low-level kinematics. What does appear likely to be in place is strong deep layer and low-level shear (850 mb winds 50-55kts) with sufficient instability. This period will need to continue to be monitored for the potential for all-modes of severe weather before a strong cold front finally sends the region back to a cooler and more stable pattern through most of the rest of the forecast period. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 625 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Currently observing some low level clouds and cirrus over terminals, with weather occurring to the north and south of terminals and gusty SW winds. With convection over our area not occurring at present and the timing of initiation uncertain, have elected to include PROB30 groups for -TSRA for 1-4Z and 8-12Z, aligning with periods of greater confidence in convective activity. Beyond weather concerns, expecting ceilings to lower to low VFR/high MVFR by 13-14Z, before beginning to rise near the end of the forecast period. SW winds remain sustained at 10-15 kts through the period, gusting between 20-30 kts. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Curtis AVIATION...SPG  052 FXUS63 KPAH 142326 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 626 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - More record/near record warmth is forecast Wednesday and Friday. - Rainfall for Wednesday night-Thursday is a near certainty (90+%) with storm total averages from 0.25-0.75" expected. A strong to potentially severe storm cannot be ruled out. - More rainfall Friday night-Saturday is likely (70+%) with storm total averages from 0.25-0.50" expected. A strong to potentially severe storm cannot be ruled out. - Temperatures will cool to seasonal mid April norms to begin the new week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1200 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Balmy warmth more typical of the Gulf Coast this time of year continues. Record to near record highs in the mid 80s are anticipated again tmrw, here are the existing records: Wednesday PAH 88 (1977) EVV 86 (2024) CGI 87 (1992) POF 88 (1936) MDH 87 (2024) Weak ripples in the flow move in/overtop the area late Wednesday night-Thursday. The NBM is up to near certainty pops for the event, and with increasing shear, SPC now outlooks a MRGNL risk SVR for Thursday afternoon-evening. That's going to be highly dependent on our ability to destabilize then, after the morning bout of rain/denser associated cloud. The better chance looks shifted eastward, but it cannot be ruled out in whole here either. After convective recovery, Friday looks to be the warmest day yet. The NBM has consistently forecast record high temps in the upper 80s. If we over-achieve just a little, we can potentially yield our (PAH) earliest 90F high temperature on record; the LREF Grand Ensemble suggests the chance that 90F will be reached is about 10%. Here are Friday's record highs and our earliest recorded 90F highs: FridayEarliest 90F High PAH 87 (1977) April 21, 1987 (90F) EVV 88 (1977) April 16, 1987 (90F) CGI 86 (1977) April 20, 1987 (90F) POF 89 (1977) March 24, 1929 (92F) MDH 89 (1977) March 23, 1910 (93F) The system makes robust passage Saturday with our next best chance of rain likely (70+%) to include potential for strong- severe storms and additional storm total averages of 0.25-0.50" rainfall. After fropa, we cool back to more seasonal mid April highs/lows to start out the new week. Cumulative average storm total rainfall for the two main rounds of the week adds up to 0.50-1.25". The NBM extended probabilities suggest a 30-50% chance that total exceeds 1", which if it is realized, would offer some needed relief for our drought parched grounds. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 624 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions expected through the end of the period. Expecting some high cirrus to move in overnight and then more midlevel diurnal cu to develop tomorrow during the day. Winds will continue to be out of the south and southwest tonight and tomorrow. Expect winds come down slightly overnight to around 8-10 kts and then to pick back up again tomorrow during the day with gusts to around 20-25 kts. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION... AVIATION...HICKFORD  257 FXUS64 KLCH 142327 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 627 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm, humid conditions will continue through the end of the week with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s. - A cold front will move through the region Saturday evening into early Sunday morning accompanied by showers and thunderstorms. - Cooler, drier air will move into the region Sunday through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Monday) Issued at 1201 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 High pressure centered over the southeastern gulf will maintain breezy southerly winds and above normal temperatures through the rest of the week. Afternoon highs are expected to approach and possibly eclipse 90 across parts of central Louisiana and interior southeast Texas Thursday and Friday afternoons. This, combined with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s, will produce a noticeable heat index for the first time this year. A cold front is expected to push through the area Saturday evening into Sunday morning bringing the next appreciable chance of precipitation. While most areas are likely to see at least some rainfall, totals are expected to be meager ranging between a quarter and three quarters of an inch. Noticeably cooler air will filter into the region behind the front with afternoon highs Sunday and Monday in the mid 70s and overnight lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. A gradual warmup will begin Tuesday into the middle of next week. Jones && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 623 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions will last for most of the TAF period. MVFR ceilings will start to impact LCH, BPT, ARA, and LFT after midnight. Low clouds will quickly rise after 12Z and VFR conditions are expected after 15Z. Winds will be from the south and below 20 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 1201 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 High pressure over the southeastern gulf will maintain steady onshore winds between 10-15 knots through Saturday. A cold front will move through the coastal waters Saturday night accompanied by showers and thunderstorms. Strong offshore winds of 25-30 knots will develop in the wake of the front Sunday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1201 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 High pressure over the southeastern gulf will maintain breezy southerly winds today through Saturday. Minimum RH values each afternoon will range from 40-60%. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...66 AVIATION...14  755 FXUS64 KLIX 142328 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 628 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 624 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Sun and temperature related health risks will be the primary concern with sunny skies and warm temperatures on tap through much of the week. Make sure to use sunscreen and drink plenty of water if you intend to be outside enjoying activities like sports and festivals. - Light fog development remains possible each morning particularly near water bodies and inland Mississippi. Chances for higher coverage of moderate to dense fog exists Wednesday morning, but forecast confidence is low at this time. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Friday Night) Issued at 1245 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The short term pattern will be mostly driven by the H5 ridge over the eastern and central Gulf through the entire period. Eventually, the ridge does slide to the west a bit allowing for heights to increase over the CWFA from midweek through the end of the workweek. This will continue to promote not only a dry forecast, but a much warmer one as well as temperatures toward the end of the cycle will be much above average with some locations across interior sections of the region approaching 90F. Outside of temperatures, morning fog, especially across the interior Wednesday morning may become an issue. At this juncture it appears widespread visibilities north of I10/12 will be above dense fog thresholds...at least that is as of now. However, it wouldn't be impossible to need a short fused advisory if fog materializes a bit more dense. (Frye) && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Monday) Issued at 1245 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Going into the weekend eyes will turn to the northeast as a front and parent trough move east across the Red River Valley and eventually in the lower MS River Valley late Saturday and into Sunday morning. QPF signal among the globals and respective ensembles has been lackluster and continues to remain that way. Timing of the frontal passage looks rather close, especially considering the range. However, despite needing some rainfall across the region this frontal passage will not be very fruitful...at least as it stands now. The best chance of measurable rainfall will be along and west of the I55 corridor late Saturday and early Sunday. Otherwise, the upper ridge flattens out thanks to the parent upper level trough. This will lower heights and thicknesses and bring down temperatures slightly late week and early next week, to more average values. Otherwise, outside of cooler/drier air at the surface and a wind shift that's about it behind the frontal boundary. (Frye) && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 624 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Forecast terminals generally VFR at forecast issuance time, although KGPT had a brief period of BKN025 in the last hour. That could recur briefly before most of the daytime cumulus clouds dissipate. The evening hours should also primarily be VFR. MVFR ceilings may redevelop after 06z as has happened at several locations. The only IFR or lower conditions currently anticipated are likely to be visibilities at KMCB from about 10z to 13z. Any flight restrictions overnight will improve to VFR by 16z or earlier. && .MARINE... Issued at 1245 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Strong surface high pressure from the northeast gulf into the Atlantic continues to produce a moderate easterly to southeasterly fetch over the northern Gulf. Winds will remain 10 to 15 kt throughout the week. Onshore flow will continue through at least Saturday with the potential for offshore flow from a cold front coming on Sunday and into early next week where more hazardous marine conditions may develop leading to cautionary headlines or even Small Craft Advisories. (Frye) && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RDF LONG TERM....RDF AVIATION...RW MARINE...RDF  365 FXUS64 KOUN 142328 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 628 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 624 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Strong to severe thunderstorms possible Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday. - Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will return several days this week, especially across portions of northwestern and far western Oklahoma. - Dry and cooler weather this weekend. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 126 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A dryline is expected to mix towards the east today, with the potential for multifaceted hazards across the area. To the west of the dryline across western and northwestern Oklahoma, near critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected to materialize. RH values are expected to get down well into the teens across the aforementioned area, in addition to west- southwest winds of 20-30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. Along and east of the dryline, the environment will be characterized by dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s, which will foster instability values over 3000 J/kg. An approaching mid-level trough will continue to move across the Desert Southwest today, with southwesterly flow aloft overspreading the southern Plains. With the aforementioned approaching wave, mid-level heights are expected decrease, which is a good indication of large scale ascent. The 12Z RAOB at OUN indicated a very unstable and slightly capped environment. The anticipation is for daytime heating to mix out any additional inhibition by this afternoon, which will prime the environment for storm development. That being said, storms are likely to develop along the dryline this afternoon and spread eastwards through the evening and overnight hours. The downstream environment will support severe weather, especially as initial storms develop. The main hazards for storms this afternoon and evening will be very large hail (potentially up to 4 inches), damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes. The tornado potential will increase after 00Z, especially for locations north of I-40, where a 50-60 kt LLJ is expected into Wednesday morning. There is some short term guidance that would suggest additional rounds of storms overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Confidence in this is not high, but certainly possible. Bunker && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 126 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The aforementioned wave approaches the area Wednesday, with additional strong to severe storms expected across much of the area. A dryline will once again mix eastward Wednesday afternoon, potentially near the Highway 81 corridor. Any storms that do form along this boundary will have the potential to become severe. All hazards will be possible with the strongest storms that develop. Storms generally should move off to the south and east during the evening hours. Most of the day Thursday will be dry. However, near-critcal fire weather conditions may emerge across western Oklahoma and western north Texas Thursday afternoon. Afternoon highs are expected to warm into the upper 80s and lower 90s with afternoon humidity approaching 10-15 percent. Bunker && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 221 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 On Friday, surface low pressure will deepen quickly, as an upper trough moves across the central and northern Rockies. How far east drier air will mix into far western Oklahoma during the afternoon is uncertain. However, there is the potential for a small area of near- critical to critical fire weather conditions across far western Oklahoma and northern Texas. The bigger story will be the potential for supercell storms to develop along and near a dryline during the afternoon and evening. Better forcing across the northern half of Oklahoma should favor better storm coverage. Still a lot of detail to be worked out, but Friday has the potential for rather impactful storms. Additional storms will likely form along a cold front which is expected to move across most of the area Friday evening and night. The front is expected to push well to our south and east on Saturday, so much of the upcoming weekend is expected to be dry with highs in the 60s to lower 70s. A southerly wind is expected to increase on Monday with most areas remaining dry. The exception may be a few showers across southern Oklahoma. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 628 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A complex of thunderstorms across southwest/west central Oklahoma into western north Texas will continue to move to the northeast this evening. In addition to reductions in visibility, the most intense thunderstorms will be strong to severe with a threat of damaging wind gusts (>50 knots) and large hail (>1" in diameter). MVFR ceilings are expected tonight across most locations except west central/northwest Oklahoma (KCSM and KWWR). Ceilings should become VFR by tomorrow afternoon. Additional thunderstorms are expected toward the end and just beyond the TAF period. Mahale && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 64 79 59 85 / 60 60 40 0 Hobart OK 62 85 52 89 / 60 40 20 0 Wichita Falls TX 65 84 60 90 / 70 50 20 0 Gage OK 53 82 46 89 / 20 10 10 0 Ponca City OK 63 80 56 85 / 60 60 50 0 Durant OK 65 79 64 86 / 80 80 50 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004-005-009- 010-014-021. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...13 SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...10  345 FXUS64 KAMA 142329 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 629 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1213 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Elevated fire weather conditions expected Wednesday with very low RH values in the 5 to 10 percent range. Critical fire weather conditions return Thu and Fri as winds ramp back up. - There is a low chance for a severe storm to develop in the southeast Texas Panhandle this late afternoon evening. - Severe storm chances remain in the far southeastern to eastern Panhandles today and again Friday, depending on the position of a dryline. -Cooler, near normal temperatures are expected over the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 1213 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Current GOES water vapor imagery shows a closed mid to upper level low pressure system over UT near the Four Corners Region. A stream of mid to upper level moisture can also be seen on satellite traveling up into FA from the southwest on the leading edge of the associated trough. As of this writing the far northwest corner of the combined Panhandles is the area that does not have moisture shown on water vapor. It is this system that is helping to increase the winds today as the leading edge of the trough is producing higher winds aloft. The EC and GFS both suggest 60kts at H5 overhead currently. Though wind gusts are expected to hold short of 50 kts at the surface, the northwest clear of any cloud cover this afternoon may see gusts up to 43 kts, or 50 mph. Also, depending on where a dryline positions may introduce some 20 to 30 PoPs for the SE TX Panhandle. Current thoughts are some storms may PoP in the SE TX Panhandle, with the potential for them becoming severe will be higher to the east and southeast of the Panhandles as the dryline mix east. With the upper level moisture some models suggest showery type activity further west, maybe as far as Amarillo. However, at the surface it will remain dry leading to only virga. The best timing for this is looking to be after sunset but before midnight. Tomorrow, when this trough comes across the Southern Great Plains and the leading edge winds exit off to the east, so will the associated surface low winds. This will decrease the winds, however, it will also introduce much drier air with Tds expected to drop into the teens. The trough may also introduce some very slightly cooler temperatures with highs around 4 to 5 degrees cooler. With the lower Tds though, RH values are expected to be much lower around 8 percent. At a minimum elevated fire weather conditions are expected for Wed afternoon. Depending on how the winds perform, there may still be some spotty critical conditions for a short time in the afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 1213 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Temporary ridging returns for Thu and Fri with increasing winds and afternoon temperatures returning to the 80s. At the surface dry air continues for the majority of the combined Panhandles with maybe the far eastern Panhandles finding themselves on the moist side of the dryline. The dry air and increasing surface winds are expected to provide critical fire weather conditions west of the dryline. East of the dryline may see conditions favorable for thunderstorms with the potential for some severe storms. This will mainly be on Friday when the dryline is expected to retreat back into the eastern Panhandles. Thu, this dryline should be mixed well enough east that even the eastern Panhandles are expected to see RH values as low as 7 percent. Friday should have the highest winds of the two days as another upper level trough digs down the Intermountain West and approaches the area. Winds on the leading edge of the H5 trough are progged to be 50 to 70 kts inducing a fairly potent leeside low in eastern CO/western KS. Gradient surface winds may be upwards of 30 mph sustained from this system. Friday night, this leeside low ejects off to the east/northeast and a fairly potent cold front is expected fill in behind it. Timing of this cold front is in question. If it can come in sooner, it could potentially shut down critical fire weather. If not it will pose a problem for any holdover fires with a drastic northerly winds shift. Even the north winds just behind the front at looking to be 20 mph gusting 30 mph, maybe even higher. As far as the potential for storms in the eastern Panhandles ahead of the front, current model guidance suggest that the dryline could be mixed well east of the Panhandles eliminating any chances for storms. Will have to evaluate further over the next couple of days. Post front, Sat and Sun are looking to have much cooler temps. Instead of highs in the 80s, highs are progged to be near normal on Sat in the 60s and only gradually warmer Sun in the 70s. Critical fire weather conditions may return Sun in the northwest as winds return to the southwest and pick back up. Saturday through Monday, conditions are progged to remain dry, free from any significant rainfall. Temperatures are only expected to be a couple degrees warmer on Monday compared to Sunday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 621 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions are expected throughout the 00Z TAF period at all TAF sites. Winds will generally be out of the southwest at 10-20 kts with higher gusts at times, especially within the first 3-6 hours of the TAF period. Cloud coverage of few to sct will be expected throughout the TAF period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1213 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Winds are expected to drop off for tomorrow. However, southwest to west winds will help bring in lower Tds. Temperatures are expected to be a few degrees cooler tomorrow, however with such low Tds moving in min RH is expected to bottom out near 7 percent for Wed leading to elevated fire weather conditions at a minimum. Winds should stay low enough to not need a Red Flag Warning for Wed. Winds do pick back up for Thu increasing the chances for critical fire weather conditions as RH values see a poor recovery Wed night and drop back to the 5-10 percent range on Thu afternoon. Fuels are expected to degraded and become even more volatile with so many dry and windy days this week. Thu night a dryline may retreat into the southeast combined Panhandles making RH recoveries better a portion of the eastern Panhandles. Areas west of this dryline feature may only see RH recover to the 30-40% range. An approaching system Friday will introduce even higher southwest to west winds around 30 mph sustained with gusts potentially up to 50 mph. RH values are looking to once again drop into the 8 to 12 percent range Friday afternoon after a dryline mixes east out of the area. This system approaching Fri is expected to also bring a fairly robust cold front with 20 to 30 mph sustained winds just behind the front Friday night. The front has been expected to show up later in the day Friday, however, there are some models that suggest it could show up early and even be through Amarillo by noon. Will have to watch and see, cause humidity will recover quite a bit behind the front and limit overall fire weather conditions despite having some strong winds. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>020-317. Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001-002-006-007- 011-012-016-017-317. Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for TXZ001>014-016>018-317. OK...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001>003. Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001-002. Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for OKZ001>003. && $$ SHORT TERM...03 LONG TERM....03 AVIATION...29  995 FXUS64 KTSA 142331 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 631 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 630 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - A window for higher-end severe weather potential exists today into Wednesday. - Warm, humid, and breezy southerly flow continues for much of the week. Most days will have at least a low chance of precipitation. - Another chance of showers and thunderstorms, some potentially severe, is expected during the day Friday to Saturday before cooler air arrives behind a cold front. && .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight) Issued at 1146 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Warm and humid southerly flow remains in place across the area. Southerly winds will continue to gust to 25-35 mph today. High temperatures will remain well above normal (in the 80s). As upper level winds/lift from a positively tilted trough spread across the dry line later today, thunderstorms are expected to develop over central Oklahoma. These storms will then move northeast into the area. Initial storm formation will probably be in the late afternoon, moving into the forecast area during the evening. Most CAMs quickly show upscale growth into a line, or perhaps a few lines. This implies that an initial severe hail dominant threat will shift to wind dominant with time. This makes sense given the very large instability and favorable dynamics for robust cold pool development. A couple of tornados are also possible, particularly early on before cold pools become mature. Of course, if storms remain discrete for longer or into the evening when the LLJ ramps up, the tornado threat could end up higher than it currently appears. With continued forcing along the dry line, additional rounds of showers and storms are possible overnight. These storms may also be severe, but the threat will generally decline with time as well as the further east you go. Locally heavy rain may also occur. For these later rounds, the threat may start to sag south and east, but generally still in the northwest half of the forecast area. Low temperatures overnight will be in the 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Tuesday) Issued at 1146 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Warm and humid southerly flow will persist Wednesday, with the best lift from an approaching trough moving overhead. CAM guidance is fairly messy on Wednesday with multiple rounds of weaker storms developing through the day across the forecast area. The CAMS finally develop stronger storms in the afternoon and evening hours. It storms are too widespread and frequent earlier during the day, it could suppress severe weather in the evening. With that said, ample moisture, shear, and instability are all present. The potential is certainly there for severe weather even if failure modes also exist. Most likely, hail and wind will be the dominant threats, but like today, an couple of tornados remain possible as well. Upper level forcing will move east on Thursday with a reprieve from the stormy conditions. Highs will reach the mid 80s with humid and breezy conditions remaining in place. A strong cold front will push through the area Friday night into Saturday. The airmass will be quite moist and unstable. Hodographs look to be long and mostly straight. Given that the shear vector will be roughly parallel to the frontal forcing, storms should consolidate into lines, with damaging wind being the primary hazard. But since this is a few days away, this is just speculation for now. Much cooler and drier conditions are expected Sunday into early next week behind the front. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 630 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings will prevail through the forecast period. One or more rounds of showers and thunderstorms will likely impact most sites, with the initial round affecting most sites in the 02-08Z time range. Another round of showers and storms is expected sometime later Wednesday afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 65 78 61 86 / 80 70 70 10 FSM 67 80 64 85 / 60 50 90 20 MLC 66 77 64 85 / 70 70 70 10 BVO 64 79 56 85 / 80 70 70 10 FYV 63 76 61 82 / 60 70 90 20 BYV 65 76 61 82 / 60 60 90 30 MKO 64 76 62 84 / 70 70 80 10 MIO 64 76 60 82 / 80 70 80 10 F10 65 77 62 85 / 70 70 70 10 HHW 65 78 64 84 / 40 60 70 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...06 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...05  807 FXUS64 KEPZ 142332 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 532 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 526 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - After a calmer Wednesday, breezy again Thursday into Friday with elevated to critical fire weather conditions. - The weekend will be cooler with a slight chance for rain on Sunday and Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1205 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Plenty of mid/high level moisture still streaming across the CWA with the sub-tropical jet. Main upper trough extending from SW Arizona through NW New Mexico will continue sweeping east and eventually clear the moisture/clouds late this evening. In the mean time, a moderate lee-side low will form over SE Colorado next few hours and help increase winds across our area this afternoon. Expect west winds of 15-25 mph with gusts to 40 mph. Blowing dust producing has been unreliable all season, but trajectories today would bring any dust into the El Paso metro area. As mentioned above, upper trough coming through tonight should clear the skies and usher in a period of dry west/southwest flow aloft into the weekend. Next upper low/trough just off the British Columbia coast will sweep across the northern and central Rockies Thursday and Friday. Very few in any clouds with this feature but it does produce decent lee-side troughs each day, creating breezy conditions Thu/Fri. This trough will eventually push a side door cool front through the area Saturday morning for a cooler weekend. Looking further out...a new Pacific low drops down off the NoCal coast Sunday, increasing southerly flow aloft. Lower level winds turn southeast, with the Gulf of America moisture seeping toward our area. As usual, models differ significantly on amount of moisture (dewpoint) moving up, with the GFS/CMC most bullish and ECMWF more bearish on pcpn. So slight chances of rain in the grids for Sun/Mon. The east push bringing the moisture in will also bring quite breezy east winds in on Sunday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 526 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Breezy conditions linger this evening with gusts to 25-30kts, shifting W after sunset. Lighter winds tonight with some gustiness to the upper teens tomorrow afternoon from W-SW. Scattered -SHRA continue to develop near and south of KLRU with some extra gusts possible from the activity. Showers drift E towards KELP through 2z which may reduce VIS to MVFR criteria from BLDU. Radar and ground obs will be monitored for possible amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1205 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Elevated fire conditions again today as we see afternoon winds of west 15-25 mph with gusts to 40 mph, combined with min RHs in the 15-23% range. Remaining dry through at least Saturday, with breezy afternoons again Thu/Fri, and back to elevated to near-critical fire conditions with much lower humidity. Min RH: Lowlands 7-12% through Saturday, increasing to 18-28% Sunday and Monday. Mountains 8-18% through Saturday, increasing to 20-35% Sunday/Monday. Vent rates very-excellent through Friday, then fair-good Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 52 78 50 83 / 20 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 49 76 46 82 / 20 0 0 0 Las Cruces 43 75 44 80 / 20 0 0 0 Alamogordo 42 74 42 79 / 20 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 31 52 34 60 / 20 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 45 75 46 79 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 36 66 41 71 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 41 77 42 82 / 10 0 0 0 Lordsburg 38 73 41 79 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 52 77 52 82 / 20 0 0 0 Dell City 47 79 41 83 / 20 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 52 83 48 88 / 20 0 0 0 Loma Linda 48 72 48 77 / 20 0 0 0 Fabens 51 80 48 86 / 20 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 46 76 45 82 / 20 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 50 77 51 82 / 20 0 0 0 Jornada Range 39 76 40 80 / 10 0 0 0 Hatch 40 79 39 83 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 47 79 45 84 / 20 0 0 0 Orogrande 44 74 41 80 / 20 0 0 0 Mayhill 37 66 37 73 / 20 0 0 0 Mescalero 34 63 36 71 / 10 0 0 0 Timberon 36 61 37 68 / 20 0 0 0 Winston 30 68 34 73 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 41 74 44 77 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 38 75 38 79 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 32 69 36 72 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 34 69 38 75 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 36 74 38 78 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 32 70 35 74 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 38 71 42 75 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 39 75 42 79 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 39 74 40 80 / 10 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 40 76 44 80 / 10 0 0 0 Cloverdale 40 70 46 73 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...39-Aronson  652 FXUS61 KGYX 142333 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 733 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Forecast remains largely on track with thunderstorms, some severe, moving through southern New Hampshire. I did trim the extent of thunder this evening as cooler air to the north is not favorable for additional instability. Did leave the door open for a rumble to make it to the coast, but its a low chance. This activity will be waning as we lose daytime heating and is expected to push offshore in the next couple hours. Also freshened up the Aviation discussion for the 00Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A few strong to severe storms are possible through the evening hours across New Hampshire and western Maine today. 2. Another warm day with scattered showers and storms is expected on Wednesday. 3. Low pressure is likely to move across northern New England on Thursday and Friday, bringing more rain and storms to New Hampshire and Maine. 4. Above average temperatures start to subside and lead way to cooler temperatures through this weekend and early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... The forecast remains on track for the chance of some strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, mainly across New Hampshire and western Maine. Overall temperatures have ended up warmer than forecasted today, adding confidence to the severe potential. Southwest New Hampshire has the greatest severe potential, with wind being the main concern. A non zero chance of a tornado, and some hail are also possible. These storms move through during the evening hours, and gradually weaken as they move through the marine layer across Maine and the NH Seacoast. The remnant showers and storms push offshore by late evening, with a few scattered showers lingering into the overnight hours. Areas of fog and low clouds are likely along the coast tonight as the marine layer moves ashore. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Wednesday's weather looks somewhat similar to today's, but overall cooler across Maine and eastern New Hampshire with a cloudier start to the day. Temps likely warm into the mid to upper 70s across south central and western New Hampshire tomorrow afternoon. Another remnant MCS drifts eastward from the Midwest tomorrow afternoon, bringing another chance for showers during the afternoon hours. With enough daytime heating, thunderstorms are possible across southwest New Hampshire again tomorrow afternoon, but the severe potential looks to be much more limited. Late Wednesday and Wednesday night, a back door front stalls near the Maine/NH border. Overall the progression of this front has been reduced since yesterday, and will be difficult to discern from an average sea breeze front going into Thursday. More fog and low marine clouds will be possible tomorrow night near and east of this boundary KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... Thursday morning, a warm front turns stationary over northern New England. With the frontal boundary stationary, persistent showers and maybe a thunderstorm looks to move in Thursday afternoon. Scattered to numerous showers and storms could continue through Thursday night and into Friday. A northward pivot of the front on Friday may allow for skies to clear in the south. If this is the case, convective initiation is likely Friday afternoon, with thunderstorms in the forecast again for southern New Hampshire. By the end of the evening, the low moves out of the area. A break in the unsettled weather looks likely on Saturday, though rain re- enters the picture on Sunday in the form of a cold front. KEY MESSAGE 4 DESCRIPTION... Temperature-wise, a strong mid-level ridge is keeping temperatures generally pretty warm for this time of year. Temperatures on Thursday will still vary greatly. Highs are forecast in the lower 70s across southern and central New Hampshire. A sea breeze and backdoor cold front both will likely keep coastal areas and Maine at least 10-15F cooler than New Hampshire on Thursday and Friday. The first drop off in temperatures occurs on Saturday, as the aforementioned low on Friday ushers in cooler air and starts to flatten the mid-level ridge. Temperatures over the weekend look to be in the upper 50s and lower 60s. The second drop-off in temperatures occurs Sunday afternoon with the previously mentioned cold front. This front could have some more potent arctic air behind it and may bring high temperatures early next week into the upper 40s and lower 50s. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 00Z Thursday...Thunderstorms are moving through MHT and in the vicinity of CON through 01Z Wednesday. Other terminals are out of the woods as far as a thunderstorm threat. The next thing to watch will be fog and or low ceilings at PSM, PWM, AUG, and RKD through 12Z confidence is low in marine fog since there is no evidence of it on satellite right now, but recent rain is enough for some patchy fog and/or IFR ceilings. Conditions should improve to VFR for a time Wednesday before chances for showers and MVFR restrictions return around 18Z. Outlook: Thursday night-Friday: MVFR due to showers and thunderstorms. Saturday: VFR expected. Sunday-Monday: MVFR due to showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Generally fair winds and seas are expected through Wednesday night as a backdoor front stalls near the coast late Wednesday. Areas of fog will be possible each night. Sub-SCA conditions are expected through the end of this weekend, with variable winds and seas of around 2-5ft. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...Baron DISCUSSION...Clair/Palmer  014 FXUS63 KFGF 142333 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 633 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a 20% chance for advisory level winter impacts from accumulating snow and gusty winds Friday into Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 306 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...Synopsis... Large scale pattern features a split in zonal flow over the Northern Plains, with a mid level shortwave east of our region. Surface high pressure is in place with stratus slowly starting to break up. Additional fog/stratus may redevelop later tonight after the current low clouds clear, with better chances for mainly aviation impacts in north central MN. Deeper westerly flow aloft will support deepening low pressure on the Lee side of the Northern Rockies and increasing southerly flow/WAA Wednesday through Thursday morning. A deepening mid/upper level trough over the Pacific Northwest builds eastward late this week into the weekend. The initial cold front arrives late in the day Thursday and may result in a large spread in potential high temperatures north to south (low 50s to near 80F depending on timing within our CWA). It will also bring chances for rain and snow back to our region from Friday through Saturday. As that trough passes, there is a strong consensus in mid/upper level ridging arriving by early next week, with rising heights reflective of increasing temperatures (60s/70s by Tuesday). This pattern also lowers the probability of measurable precipitation, though the orientation of the ridge/flow aloft may still allow for fast moving shortwave trough passages near our CWA. ...Winter travel impact potential Friday into Saturday... As stronger synoptic ascent and WAA in the 850-700 MB layer overspread our CWA several periods of light to moderate precipitation (mainly rain) should move west to east through our CWA Friday into Saturday morning. All ensembles at this time support the main closed 700MB low tracking over Manitoba, placing the potential for stronger frontogensis to the north, while most precipitation in our CWA will be driven by WAA or broader deformation on the back side of the 500MB low. While there is overall strong consensus on the larger scale track, smaller scale features at the surface (low track/frontal timing) still play a role in the potential for winter impacts. A larger number of ensemble members generally keep temperature profiles in place supportive of liquid with surface temperatures above freezing outside of the overnight/morning periods for most locations (limiting potential for accumulating snow or a wintry mix). In this scenario (80% chance) most areas would see little to no accumulation (better chance for 1" in the Devils Lake Basin). There is still a subset of members (20%) that support more organized deformation while temperature profiles are cold enough for all snow and have better chance for snow totals greater than 3". As ground temperatures are warmer, most of this will tend to be on grassy/elevated surfaces that may limit impacts outside of snow rates/wind reducing visibility where moderate/brief heavy snow would track. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 633 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 MVFR stratus is slowly clearing, and should end at KFAR, KGFK and KTVF in the next few hours. Overnight, the main aviation concern is fog. Fog could form at any terminal after 5z, but it looks most likely at KBJI, where several hours of LIFR were added to the TAF late tonight into early Wednesday morning. Additional TEMPOs were added at KFAR and KTVF to highlight when the chance of fog is greatest. Finally, There is more uncertainty in fog development at KGFK. Therefore, I did not add in any IFR/LIFR, but a prevailing MVFR group was included for the period when fog, if it does develop, would be most likely. Fog will clear by late Wednesday morning, with VFR through the end of the TAF period. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DJR AVIATION...Rafferty  136 FXUS63 KUNR 142334 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 534 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions Wednesday and Thursday; a Fire Weather Watch is in effect Thursday. - Cooler with rain/snow behind cold front late Thursday through Friday. - Trending warmer Saturday through early next week. && .DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Tuesday) Issued at 1256 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Active southwesterly flow continues across the central US. Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough pushing through the Northern Plains and an upper low ejecting out of the Central Rockies along with an active southern stream as moisture streams into the Southern Plains. Surface low pressure is centered over southeastern NE with a weak gradient over the forecast area. Light showers/sprinkles continue across southwestern SD into south- central SD, although a dry boundary layer and lack of appreciable mid-level moisture will limit precipitation amounts. Showers will taper off this afternoon and early evening as subsidence overspreads the region. Warmer and dry tomorrow with temperatures in the upper 60s to upper 70s across the plains. Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions are expected with RH falling into the teens to low 20s, particularly portions of NE WY and SW SD, although there is some uncertainty regarding boundary layer winds/if frequent gusts > 25 mph will develop. Even warmer (along and south of I90 in SD) and drier Thursday ahead of a cold front with critical conditions possible; a Fire Weather Watch is in effect from the Weston County plains through southern SD. Cold front arrives Thursday evening bringing cooler air and potential for rain and snow. Upper trough will eject out of the Central Rockies, although recent guidance shows split flow developing. Pacific moisture advects into the region ahead of this trough, although appreciable moisture is lacking (precipitable water values ~100-125% of normal). Best chance of measurable precipitation across NE WY and the northern Black Hills (NBM prob QPF >0.25" ~30-55%). Warm air advection returns Saturday with temperatures trending warmer through the weekend into early next week with elevated fire weather conditions expected. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Wednesday Evening) Issued At 532 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the period. Rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to affect far western SD into central SD this evening. Local MVFR conditions are possible in the strongest precipitation. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued At 1256 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions expected tomorrow (Wed) across much of the area as RH falls into the teens to low 20s. Best overlap of low RH and stronger winds forecast across southern Campbell and Weston Counties in WY through southwestern SD into the southern Black Hills and foothills. Some uncertainty remains whether winds will reach critical thresholds to warrant a RFW; will continue to monitor. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect Thursday for the Weston County plains through southern SD as stronger southwest winds will develop ahead of a cold front. Daytime minimum RH will fall as low as 12-14 percent Thursday. Mid-level clouds ahead of the front and spotty high-based showers may complicate things Thursday by keeping temperatures a bit cooler and RH higher. However, plan for at least elevated to near-critical conditions Thursday (and Wednesday). && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for SDZ321-322-325-326-332>335. WY...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for WYZ317. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...SE AVIATION...13 FIRE WEATHER...SE  656 FXUS63 KOAX 142335 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 635 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this week, particularly tonight and Friday. - Thursday will be a drying day as a ridge moves in between systems. - Possible temperature impacts are expected for those with agricultural interests heading into the weekend. Expected lows Saturday and Sunday morning will be in the 20s and 30s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 215 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Today and Tonight... A warm front bisected the region today, from Friend, NE, to Lincoln, Omaha, and over into Harlan, IA. North of the front, a pesky cloud deck of low clouds developed, helping maintain temperatures in the low to mid 70s. South of the front, gusty southwest winds brought warmer temperatures into the low to mid 80s. The winds also brought plenty of dry air, with minimum relative humidities falling to 20-30 percent across far southeast Nebraska. The combination of warm temps, dry air, and gusty winds led to Very High to Extreme fire danger across parts of southeast Nebraska. A Red Flag Warning, will remain in effect for Jefferson and Saline counties, where conditions are worst, until 9 PM tonight. The good news is, moisture is expected to surge back north into the forecast area tonight. The bad news is, this could increase our risk for a few strong to severe storms developing across far southeast Nebraska. However, the other good news is latest CAM runs have pushed the best chance for storm development just southeast of the forecast area, into northern parts of Kansas and Missouri. If storms do manage to develop over southeast Nebraska tonight, they will have a lot of dry air to contend with throughout the column, which could hinder their growth. If storms do manage to win out against the entrainment of dry air, steep lapse rates, and strong unidirectional shear could allow storms to become severe. Large hail and damaging wind gusts appear to be the main concerns with any storms that are able to develop. The severe potential may linger into the early morning hours. Wednesday and Thursday... The low associated with the previously mentioned warm front will move northeast into north-central Kansas/southeast Nebraska Wednesday morning, brining additional chances for showers and storms through the region. The low is expected to lift slightly to the north on Wednesday, bringing some wrap around moisture to northern Nebraska. PoPs will decrease southwest to northeast heading into the evening hours as the low exits. A few isolated strong to severe storms may develop as the low moves out late Wednesday afternoon/evening. Thursday is still expected to remain dry as a ridge moves across the region. After the brief cool down (highs in the 70s) on Wednesday, warm air advects into the region. Expect widespread 80s for highs Thursday afternoon. Friday and Beyond... Friday will be a day to watch as we get closer to the end of the week. Low pressure develops on the lee side of the Rockies with an attendant cold front moving into the region. An upper level trough over the Four Corners region will lift to the northeast into the area by Friday night. The cold front will be ushering in much cooler air with WAA and moisture advection ahead of it. There is still uncertainty in where the cold front reaches and the timing of everything. Strong to severe storms with this set up are expected, with all hazards possible. There is still considerable uncertainty in some of the forecast details for this period, so continue to monitor the forecast for potential changes. Cooler air will push in behind the front for the upcoming weekend. Saturday morning lows will be in the upper 20s and low 30s over north of a line from Columbus, NE to Onawa, IA. Lows will fall to the mid and upper 30s across the rest of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. Those with agricultural interests will want to keep an eye on temperatures. Highs will struggle into the 50s for much of the area. A few locations will not make it into the 50s. Saturday night/Sunday morning will be cold once again with lows ranging from the mid-20s to the mid-30s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 626 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 KOFK: VFR conditions persist at the terminal this evening. Expect the possibility for a few showers and maybe an isolated storm after 05Z. Additional chances for showers/storms will be possible Wednesday morning. Winds will remain out of the north or northwest through the TAF period. KOMA: VFR conditions continue for now at the terminal. West winds will shift to the north over the next couple of hours. Thunderstorm chances will increase after 02Z, continuing overnight. Ceilings are expected to lower to MVFR levels by daybreak, persisting through much of the morning before improving in the afternoon. Although not included in the TAF at this time, there is a small chance of a few thunderstorms coming into the vicinity of the terminal after 19Z Wednesday. There is still some uncertainty in where specifically they will develop and if it will impact the terminal directly. KLNK: VFR conditions persist through the evening. Winds are going to be shifting shortly at the terminal as an outflow boundary moves in from the north. Thunderstorms have developed west of the area, from west of KEAR to near KOLU. These storms will move to the northwest with additional storms firing up along a warm front. There is potential that a few of these storms do make it into the vicinity of KLNK, so a mention was added into prevailing conditions. For the rest of the forecast period, ceilings fall to MVFR levels. There is an additional chance of some showers or storms impacting the terminal after 18Z; however, due to TAF length, complexity, and still some uncertainty of where these showers/storms develop, the mention of them was omitted from prevailing conditions for now. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ078-088. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KG AVIATION...ANW  058 FXUS65 KABQ 142335 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 535 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 535 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Hazardous crosswinds will create difficult travel for large and high-profile vehicles through sunset and again Thursday and Friday mainly across eastern NM. - Critical fire weather conditions will increase the threat for rapid fire spread from any new fires through sunset. These conditions return Thursday across northeast and east central NM, as well as a majority of the state Friday. - A hard freeze is forecast Friday night into Saturday morning across portions of central, western and northern NM. Take precautions to protect early blooming plants. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 122 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Strong southwesterly winds will slowly decrease this evening across northern and central New Mexico. As the parent storm system slides eastward across Colorado through the overnight hours, an associated cold front will bring cooler temperatures to NM. On average, low temperatures will be around 10 degrees cooler than last night. In addition to mountain areas and common colder locations across west central NM, a few other lower elevation areas, including Farmington, the Santa Fe Metro, and Moriarty will see temperatures fall below freezing for an hour or two early Wednesday morning. A trailing trough will continue to cross the state on Wednesday. Though this will pass with little fanfare, breezy westerly winds will return to east central NM with gusts near 25 or 30 mph. High temperatures will be near to just shy of normal. Winds will taper off Wednesday evening. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 122 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Flow will back to the southwest on Thursday in advance of an strong upper level trough diving southward toward UT. H7 flow will increase to between 25 and 30kt by the late afternoon hours and H5 flow will only be marginally stronger. Nonetheless, strong mixing and a deepening lee side trough will allow surface winds to increase areawide with gusts between 25 and 40 mph. High temps will warm 5 to 10 degrees areawide. On Friday, the system will cross the central and northern Rockies with the base of the trough crossing northern NM. The NAM appears to be the outlier showing a slower progression. H7 winds will increase to between 40 and 50kt while a surface low deepens near the CO/OK/NM border. This will bring strong winds to much of the area once again, with the strongest winds across north central and northeast NM. Additionally, a Pacific cold front will race from west to east, and the strongest gusts of the day are most likely to occur with the frontal passage. Temperatures will cool quickly behind the front. Areas across NW NM will be upwards of 20 degrees cooler on Friday than on Thursday. Areas of blowing dust may develop, especially in areas that have received little rainfall as of late. After the winds decrease Friday evening, excellent radiational cooling will allow temperatures to drop like a rock. A hard freeze (<=28 degrees) is on tap for much of northern and western NM, plus areas around Moriarty and Clines Corners. This would be a damaging freeze for any budding or blooming plants. However, even areas across the Albuquerque Metro will see low temperatures fall near or just below the freezing mark. Quieter conditions with weak ridging will be the rule on Saturday. Surface winds will veer around to the southeast and south, slowly drawing up Gulf moisture Saturday night into Sunday. At least for now, nothing more than sprinkles is expected for Sunday. Instead, southerly winds will increase Sunday and breezy to windy conditions are expected across much of eastern NM during the afternoon. Though the upper level pattern is uncertain on Monday, it appears that low level moisture will continue to creep in from the south, though storms still look to be scarce. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 535 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Gusty southwest to west winds across the airspace taper off around sunset. Low and mid level clouds dissipate during the evening and overnight hours with mostly clear skies by sunrise Wednesday. Lighter west and southwest winds Wednesday compared to today with peak gusts around 15 to 25 kts. Some scattered mid level clouds across the northern and western high terrain during the afternoon hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 122 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Critical fire weather conditions will persist through early evening across eastern NM. Lighter winds are expected on Wednesday, though locally critical conditions remain on tap for the Clines Corners area. Critical fire weather conditions will return for Thursday and Friday. A dry slot will cross the state on Thursday, and strong mixing will bring the drier air as well as stronger winds to the surface. Several hours of single digit RH, generally between 5 and 10 hours, are expected across all but the high terrain. Southwest winds will not be as strong as today, but will be above critical thresholds, especially across eastern NM. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for all of northeast and east central NM for Thursday afternoon and evening. Wind and RH thresholds are also being met near Gallup/western portions of Zone 105, but this area just received wetting rainfall and ERC values are quite marginal, so have held off on a watch. Winds will turn more westerly and northwesterly on Friday and increase as the base of an upper level trough crosses northern NM. An associated cold front will also cross the state, dropping temperatures and inching RH values upward. Critical fire weather conditions will be favored across eastern NM, but a few hours of critical conditions will also impact portions of central and western NM. Quieter conditions on Saturday, but critical conditions look to return to northeast NM on Sunday as strong southerly winds return. Less confidence exists for Monday as moisture will be increasing, but near- critical conditions are not out of the question for northeast NM. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 31 65 33 73 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 23 61 22 67 / 5 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 28 61 31 68 / 5 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 24 64 25 69 / 5 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 28 60 30 66 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 26 65 26 71 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 31 61 30 67 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 36 65 37 71 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 32 61 33 67 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 30 68 28 70 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 34 73 32 76 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 23 53 25 60 / 0 5 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 36 60 40 67 / 0 5 0 0 Pecos........................... 30 61 35 67 / 5 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 28 58 33 63 / 0 10 0 0 Red River....................... 24 48 26 53 / 0 10 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 22 54 21 61 / 0 5 5 0 Taos............................ 25 62 25 68 / 0 5 0 0 Mora............................ 29 61 33 67 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 34 68 33 73 / 0 5 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 34 62 37 68 / 5 5 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 33 66 34 71 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 41 68 43 74 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 42 70 42 76 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 38 72 39 79 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 40 71 40 77 / 5 0 0 0 Belen........................... 37 73 34 79 / 5 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 39 70 40 77 / 5 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 35 73 34 78 / 5 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 40 72 40 78 / 5 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 36 72 36 78 / 5 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 39 66 41 72 / 5 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 41 71 41 76 / 5 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 42 74 40 80 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 37 63 39 68 / 5 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 37 64 39 70 / 5 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 35 65 34 71 / 5 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 29 66 27 73 / 5 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 33 62 35 69 / 5 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 33 65 35 71 / 5 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 35 64 36 71 / 5 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 41 67 41 72 / 5 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 38 61 41 67 / 10 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 29 61 31 69 / 0 5 0 0 Raton........................... 29 67 30 74 / 0 10 0 0 Springer........................ 30 67 29 75 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 31 64 34 70 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 40 68 41 79 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 35 67 36 75 / 0 5 0 0 Conchas......................... 39 76 39 82 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 40 71 39 79 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 42 78 43 85 / 5 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 45 77 44 83 / 10 0 0 0 Portales........................ 45 78 42 83 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 42 76 39 82 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 47 81 43 86 / 5 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 42 73 41 79 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 38 71 37 76 / 5 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ104-123-125- 126. Wind Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ223-226>236-240. Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for NMZ104-123-125-126. && $$ SHORT TERM...34 LONG TERM....34 AVIATION...71  984 FXUS66 KPDT 142335 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 435 PM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mountain snow today into Thursday - Breezy to windy through Thursday - Near- to sub-freezing morning lows Thursday and Friday for the lowlands && .DISCUSSION... Ensemble and deterministic NWP guidance are in excellent agreement that the next weather system to affect the region, an upper-level closed low currently centered over southeast Alaska, will continue to track along the coast of British Columbia and eventually into the Pacific Northwest through Thursday. Its attendant cold front is expected (99 percent confidence) to slowly traverse the forecast area overnight (Washington Cascades) through Wednesday afternoon (far northeast Oregon), lowering snow levels below mountain pass elevations. Winter weather headlines remain in effect, and confidence is high (80 percent) in 4-8 inches of snowfall for the Washington Cascades, 6-12 inches for the Oregon Cascades, and 5-10 inches for the northern Blue Mountains with locally higher totals along the crests. The bulk of the snowfall will likely (80 percent confidence) end by Wednesday morning (Washington Cascades) to Wednesday afternoon (Oregon Cascades and Blues) as the front sags southeast, but snow showers will persist through Wednesday night or Thursday morning as the aforementioned upper low moves overhead. Precipitation associated with the cold front in non-mountain areas will be mostly rain below 1500-2000 feet, though uncertainty still exists in snowfall between 2000 and 4000 feet. Much of this uncertainty is driven by how long the frontal band lingers over the lowlands (i.e. how much precipitation falls and how much rate-driven cooling will occur within the band), and also in the location/magnitude of post-frontal snow showers. Widespread breezy to windy southwesterly to westerly winds are expected this afternoon and tonight in advance of the cold frontal passage. Confidence was too low (50 percent) in widespread advisory-level sustained winds or wind gusts to issue any wind headlines. By Wednesday afternoon, winds will become westerly to northwesterly in the wake of the front and remain diurnally breezy to windy through Thursday. NBM probabilities of exceeding advisory levels vary widely (30-80 percent) across the lower elevations each day, highest for wind-prone locations of the foothills of the Blue Mountains and north-central Oregon as well as the Kittitas Valley. The cold air mass associated with the upper low Thursday morning has prompted concerns for near- to below-freezing morning temperatures. NBM calibrated probabilities suggest medium-high chances (60-90 percent) of freezing temperatures for the Yakima and Kittitas valleys, medium probabilities (30-70 percent) along the foothills of the Blue Mountains, and low- medium-medium (20-50 percent) for the lowest elevations including the eastern Columbia River Gorge and lower Columbia Basin. Have opted to issue a Freeze Watch where chances of freezing are highest (Kittitas and Yakima valleys and the foothills of the northern Blue Mountains of Oregon), but will note there are still a lot of moving parts to the forecast with uncertainty in how much cloud cover will persist and how windy conditions will remain overnight into the morning hours. Also worthy mentioning, with the notable exception of several CAMs (and perhaps a few other inputs not examined), raw inputs to the NBM are largely not supportive of sub-freezing temperatures while bias-corrected inputs are. This is not uncommon, but when conditions are not calm, raw inputs are more likely to have their warmer temperatures verify than when radiational cooling is efficient and guidance struggles to resolve cold pools. An upper-level ridge will likely (80 percent confidence) build into the Pacific Northwest Friday into the weekend, yielding lighter winds and mostly dry conditions. The main headline- worthy consideration for Friday will be near- to sub-freezing temperatures for the lowlands. This set-up looks more favorable for mostly clear to clear skies and lighter winds relative to Thursday morning, so while the coldest air mass will have exited the region to the east, radiational cooling should be more efficient. By Sunday through Monday, uncertainty in the 500-hPa pattern grows, but some flavor of a 500-hPa closed low (~85 percent of members) or trough (~15 percent of members) is advertised by all ensemble clusters to be in the vicinity of, or over, the Pacific Northwest. Will note the trend in 12Z ensembles has been towards the offshore cut-off low, a solution that anecdotally materializes more often relative to the more progressive solutions. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... VFR conditions currently prevail with the main concerns over the TAF period will be periods of light to moderate rain showers with breezy to locally windy conditions. Rain showers will develop for the majority of sites over the evening to morning hours tomorrow, with 20-30 mph gusts embedded. A small chance remains with the more moderately developed showers, that MVFR conditions or lower will temporary develop (5-15% chance) with low CIGs and/or VIS. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 41 52 31 53 / 50 90 40 20 ALW 42 52 34 53 / 80 90 60 30 PSC 44 58 34 61 / 30 70 30 0 YKM 38 55 30 59 / 60 40 10 0 HRI 42 56 32 59 / 30 80 20 0 ELN 32 48 29 52 / 60 30 10 0 RDM 34 48 23 49 / 40 80 30 0 LGD 39 48 29 46 / 90 100 80 60 GCD 38 49 26 45 / 70 100 70 60 DLS 41 53 35 57 / 80 80 20 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM PDT Wednesday for WAZ030. Freeze Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning for WAZ026-027. Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM PDT Wednesday for WAZ522. OR...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM PDT Wednesday for ORZ502. Freeze Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning for ORZ507. Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ509. && $$ DISCUSSION...86 AVIATION...95  250 FXUS63 KARX 142336 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 636 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe storms possible today, primarily for the southeastern half of the forecast area with large hail, damaging winds, a few tornadoes as the primary threats. Heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding remains a secondary threat with overall fast storm motions expected. - Storm chances continue through Tuesday night and Wednesday, eventually ceasing temporarily through Thursday. Additional strong to severe storm chances return Friday afternoon/evening/night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1254 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Severe Storms Today If you didn't get a slice of the action yesterday, have no fear because we're in for another round of potentially higher end severe weather again today. The main locations under the gun today will be Northeastern Iowa into SW/Central Wisconsin. An outflow boundary from last night/this mornings convection is expected to lift north as an effective warm front. Current guidance is in good consensus that this will stall out across NE Iowa into Central Wisconsin by mid-afternoon. Satellite imagery is already showing this boundary clearly across Central Iowa where skies have cleared early this afternoon. Convective inhibition will erode through the coming hours with daytime heating and ascent ahead of a shortwave upper trough ejecting into the Upper Midwest will support initiation by mid-afternoon. The airmass will be plenty unstable with 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE present on area soundings once the cap finally erodes. Supercells are expected to go up quickly with steep mid level lapse rates and abundant effective bulk shear across the region (30-50+ kts). All hazards will be in play with these storms but the main threats look to be large to very large hail and a few tornadoes (potentially strong). The parameter space is thermodynamically supportive of large hail. Hodographs show a fairly straight, elongated hodograph with a little bit of low level curvature. Think the best threat for tornadoes will be along and near the boundary where low level helicity can be maximized. The supercells are expected to move quickly off to the east and grow upscale into a more linear feature where damaging winds will take over as the primary threat. Luckily, hydro concerns remain limited as storms are expected to form in areas that didn't see significant rainfall from yesterday's batch of storms. These storms should also be moving at a good clip which will limit the impacts of heavy rainfall in a given area. The environment is certainly favorable for some significant storms this afternoon and early evening with the Day 1 Enhanced Risk in place with significant hail and tornado probabilities in place across southwestern Wisconsin and northeastern Iowa. Severe Storm Potential Wednesday The severe threat for Wednesday will hinge a lot upon how much the airmass can recover from this afternoon/evening's storms. The airmass will remain persistently warm and moist as yet another surface low will move into Iowa, likely putting southeastern portions of our area in the warm sector - again. Ongoing showers and storms may inhibit how much we can destabilize by the afternoon. If we can destabilize and get enough diurnal heating, the environment would be supportive of strong to severe storms with around 1000 J/kg of CAPE. Shear profiles this far north don't look particularly impressive but low level helicity near the warm front may be enough to support a low tornado risk. Again, this will depend heavily on lingering convection tonight and into tomorrow morning with hopefully better consensus among models with the 00Z and 06Z suites. Storms Ramp Back Up Friday After a brief lull in activity for Thursday, we ramp back up into severe chances for Friday. A deep trough is expected to take shape over the Rockies late in the week. As this slides east, southwesterly flow is expected to increase across the area. At the surface, a bit of a complicated pattern is set to take shape with two semi-weak surface lows, one over the Northern Plains and another over the Central Plains. Out ahead of these lows, a broad warm sector will develop across much of the Mississippi River Valley. With increasing ascent from the upper trough and surface lift from a cold front that moves east, a line of storms is expected to develop sometime Friday west of our area. Steep mid level lapse rates and a strengthening low/mid level jet at 40-60 kts will support initial supercell development before storms form into a QLCS. Thermodynamic profiles show a broad area of 2000-3000 J/kg across our area with slightly curved and elongated hodographs. With all of this coming together, SPC has put our area in a Day 4 Slight Risk with an Enhanced Risk just off to our south and west, where shear and overall forcing looks a bit more robust. Snow Showers This Weekend? As the aforementioned surface low(s) move off to the north and east into Ontario by 12Z Saturday, the long draping cold front will have finally made its way through the area. With the low strengthening slightly, the pressure gradient will remain tight enough to allow strong cold air advection into the area early Saturday. While high temperatures Friday will be in the 70s areawide, highs by Saturday will have fallen 20-30 degrees into the low 40s to mid 50s. Model guidance is even indicating some the precipitation on the back side of the low could be a rain/snow mix or just all light snow. Which is a wild thing to think about after a week of 70+ degree temperatures but such is life in the midwest during spring. Any snow should not be impactful with no accumulations expected given that ground temperatures should support melting on contact. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 636 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 During the next hour, KLSE has a chance of seeing a few storms. A few might be strong. Once these move through the remainder of the night will be dry with VFR conditions. Some areas of dense fog will develop toward sunrise. This fog will burn off my mid- morning. This will leave VFR conditions for the remainder of the day. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1254 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Widespread hydrologic concerns are not expected with this afternoon and evenings activity given the fast expected storm motion and overall impacted location being south of where the heaviest rain for yesterday's event has fallen. Given that SW Wisconsin is under threat, the main basin of concern would be the Kickapoo as it's notoriously flashy and could see rises into Action/Minor with this activity. Flood watches and warnings continue for locations along the Black and Trempealeau Rivers primarily with other locations impacted including the Yellow River at Necedah and various spots along the Wisconsin River. The larger basins seem more at risk as we move through the rest of the week with continued chances for rain today, tomorrow, and Friday. None of these events look to provide particularly heavy rain but the repeated activity will likely cause river rises along area basins. Flash flooding is not of great concern either but rain rates with the strongest thunderstorms may support local ponding. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Barendse AVIATION...Boyne HYDROLOGY...Barendse  383 FXUS63 KLOT 142336 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 636 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Late spring to summer-like temperatures continue through Friday with highs in the 70s and 80s and lows in the 60s. - Significant all hazards severe weather threat this evening, particularly north of I-80. - Heavy rain and flash flooding threat from repeated rounds of thunderstorms tonight into Wednesday. - A brief break in the pattern is expected late Thursday into or through the day on Friday before another storm system arrives in the Friday evening to Saturday timeframe. - In the wake of the Saturday cold front, a brief, potentially sharp, shot of much cooler air could bring frost/freeze concerns into next Sunday and Monday. && .MESOSCALE... Issued at 505 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Convection has taken off over IN in advance of that subtle shortwave that brought some scattered showers and storms to our southern CWA. In the wake of this shortwave, there has been evidence of subsidence, both in satellite imagery and in the ILX 12z to 18z soundings. The 18z soundings from DVN and ILX both have MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg, but with a pronounced capping inversion on both soundings. That strong cap suggests that we it will likely be another couple-few hours before the threat of convection makes it into our area. Convection has been increasing in coverage across Wisconsin closer to the warm front as well as across central/eastern IA near the sfc low and south along the dryline. Strong deep layer shear and strong instability will continue to support supercells with potential for large to very large hail with this activity in the near term. Given the intense nature of the convection already, plus a glancing shot of synoptic ascent associated with a shortwave pass well to our northwest, this convection should survive and break through the capping inversion as it progresses east toward and across the MS River early this evening. As sunset approaches, developing nocturnal low level jet should result in a rapid increase in low level shear in advance of this convection across northern IL and southern WI. This will result in storms moving into a much more favorable environment for tornadoes, potentially strong as they get into southwest WI and northwest IL. By this point, there are uncertainties regarding storm mode, but the strong cap in advance of these storms could slow the upscale growth into a QLCS. If any well developed supercell(s) move into this environment the potential would exist for strong tornado(s) for at least a couple of hours. Eventually, there are indications that this convection should congeal into more of a QLCS with severe threat transitioning to more of a damaging wind with an attendant QLCS tornado threat. Given the very strong low level shear, the threat for a strong tornado or two could even persist even after the convective mode transitions to QLCS. It still appears the areas most at risk in our CWA is near/north of I-88/I-290 corridors. Given its current motion, the storms over IA may not reach our CWA until after 0100 or 0130z. - Izzi && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 312 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Through Wednesday night... The primary weather focus in the near term continues to revolve around the continued threat for a significant severe weather event this evening. This includes the threat of tornadoes, instances of very large hail (2"+ diameter) and damaging winds in excess of 70 mph. The threat of flash flooding is also of increasing concern tonight into Wednesday, due to repeated rounds of very heavy rain producing storms. A recent surface analysis indicates that the stalled west-to- east oriented frontal boundary continues to reside north of the area this afternoon, generally from northeastern IA eastward across southern WI. Meanwhile, the outflow boundary from this mornings convection has largely washed out, with a notable airmass recovery across northeastern IL, noted by temperatures rebounding into the low 80s amidst surface dewpoints in the mid 60s. Interestingly, while this afternoon's airmass recovery beneath a corridor of very steep mid-level lapse rates has resulted in moderate to strong MLCAPE values in excess of 3,000 j/kg, a notable capping EML inversion remains in place. This is apparent on the 18Z DVN RAOB, with a sharp EML inversion noted around 800 mb. While this cap is currently curtailing convective development, the sampled thermodynamic and kinematic environment is quite volatile and will be supportive of significant severe weather as we head through the evening. While some isolated to widely scattered supercells capable of producing large hail will be possible this afternoon as a subtle impulse continues to slide eastward across central and eastern IL into northwestern IN, the primary severe thunderstorm threat continues to be this evening, particularly across northern IL and southern Wisconsin. Initial severe storm development is expected near the stalled frontal boundary in northeastern IA within the next hour or two. In fact, current satellite and radar imagery indicate several convective attempts already underway in this area. As development occurs, storm modes will initially favor supercells, though a eventual upscale growth is anticipated through the evening. Very steep mid-level lapse rates and long straight hodographs will favor instances of very large destructive hail with these initial supercells. However, strengthening low- level flow and the associated enlarging low- level hodographs into early this evening will will support a notable tornado threat for a few hours this evening (6-9 pm). This tornado threat is expected to be the highest across far northern IL into southern WI (generally along and north of I-88). Upscale growth into a severe wind producing MCS, with potential embedded QLCS tornadoes is then likely to occur through the evening as this activity progresses eastward through southern WI and far northern IL. Accordingly, the main severe threats look to transition to damaging wind gusts in excess of 70 mph and isolated tornadoes later this evening. Increasingly confidence has prompted the recent issuance of a tornado watch for most of northern IL through this evening. While the severe threat should largely wane by midnight tonight, the threat for training showers and thunderstorms may continue across parts of northern IL into the overnight hours. A veering low-level jet overnight may set up favorable conditions for training and backbuilding storms as the flow offsets the easterly movement. This adds concern for flash flooding, particularly given that this activity could train over the urban areas of Chicago. At this time we have opted to hold off on a flash flood watch, though as trends become more clear this evening one may be needed. We did highlight the threat for possible flooding concerns in a Hydro outlook (ESF), but again, messaging may need to be ramped up to a Watch this evening. Additional waves of showers and thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday. The amount of cloud cover and periods of rain does make it unclear as to the extent and coverage of severe storms due to questions of diurnal destabilization. Nevertheless, a level 1 to 2 out of 5 severe weather threat continues on Wednesday afternoon and evening. Regardless of the overall severe threat, flooding and flash flooding will continue to be of concern Wednesday into Wednesday night, owing to the repeated instances of very heavy rainfall. Accordingly, a future flood watch may be needed for the tonight through Wednesday time period. Thursday onward... A short period of drier weather is expected late Thursday into Friday morning following the eastward departure of the mid- level impulse ejecting out of the Desert Southwest. However, yet another storm system and associated cold front is favored to shift across the central CONUS Friday night into Saturday morning. Locally, another threat of strong to severe thunderstorms will exist in advance of cold front, which should move across our area sometime Saturday morning. In the wake of this cold front, a period of much cooler weather will move in across the area Sunday into Monday. The magnitude of this colder airmass may result in freezing overnight low temperatures and afternoon highs only in the low 50s for Sunday. KJB && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 636 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Aviation forecast concerns for 00Z TAFs: - Period of TSRA likely later this evening into the overnight hours. Some TS may be strong-severe. Brief IFR vis/MVFR cigs in TS. - SHRA/embedded TS may linger for some time overnight, if linear orientation becomes more west-east. Low confidence in end timing of TS overnight. - Additional TSRA possible especially late Wednesday into Wednesday night, however timing/location will likely be affected by lingering cold pool/boundaries from tonight's storms. - Breezy S-SW winds through period, though potentially disturbed at times by thunderstorms clusters especially tonight. Latest surface analysis places low pressure over central IA, with a nearly stationary frontal boundary extending northeast and east across southern WI. Clusters of severe thunderstorms have developed in the vicinity of the low and frontal boundary from central/eastern IA into southern/central WI. Farther south, our terminals are in a warm, humid and breezy warm sector, generally capped by an inversion associated warm EML layer aloft. While can't completely rule out isolated TS developing ahead of current activity this evening, current expectation is that the cluster of TSRA over northeast IA will track east across far northern IL and move into the RFD area after 02Z and Chicago area after 03Z with attendant severe weather threat (wind/hail and isolated tornado) through late evening. Thereafter, additional TS may develop as the low level jet turns more west-southwest and increases and potentially leads to some training of storms across part of the area. Exact location and footprint of this is of somewhat low confidence at this time, though have maintained at least a VCTS mention through 09-10Z for this. At some point TS coverage should wane with a somewhat stable cold pool likely resulting in a lull in activity Wednesday morning. Redevelopment of SHRA/TSRA appears likely later in the day Wednesday into Wednesday evening, though effects of tonight's cold pool and residual stabilizing effects (and location of any aggregate outflow boundaries) will likely have impacts on destabilization and location of stronger low-level forcing. Have indicated VCTS/prob30 after 20-21Z Wednesday afternoon and into the evening with lower confidence in details, though coverage may ultimately require a tempo/prevailing mention. Ratzer && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for Winthrop Harbor IL to Burns Harbor IN. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago  805 FXUS63 KDVN 142337 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 637 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe storms are likely (some significant severe possible) through the evening, with highest confidence in coverage along the Highway 20 corridor and lower confidence on the southern extent. We have an Enhanced (level 3/5) Risk for Severe Weather for our north, and Slight Risk (level 2/5) south. - Widespread showers and storms are expected Wednesday, with multiple rounds possible. Severe weather will be possible again, especially in the afternoon and evening. SPC highlighted the whole area in a Slight Risk (level 2/5) for severe weather. - A stronger surface low and cold front will work through the region on Friday, bringing along another potential bout of severe weather. SPC currently has much of our area in an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) for severe weather. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 An active forecast lies ahead, with current SPC outlooks highlighting areas along/north of Interstate 80 in an Enhanced (level 3/5) Risk for severe weather, with a Slight Risk (level 2/5) south. Features that we are watching as potential points for convective initiation will be subtle outflow boundaries over the area, resulting from overnight convection. Also, we will have a stationary boundary draped over/near our northern counties along Highway 20. This stationary boundary will be the area of most concern, as it will provide the necessary surface forcing for convective initiation. Further, we will see the LLJ increase in magnitude later this afternoon and through the evening, converging near that boundary. Thus, there will be plenty of forcing in our north for thunderstorm potential. We are looking at the potential for discrete supercell storms, where coverage may increase in the evening hours owing to the strengthening LLJ. Below, we will dive into timing and environmental details. The main forecast challenge lies with the location and timing of convection, owing to the cap in place over the area. Best chances to see storms this afternoon/evening will be along and north of the Highway 20 corridor, where we will see the best forcing to overcome the cap. Although, our whole outlook is highlighted for severe weather for a reason. Even though areas south of the Highway 20 corridor are capped, there are ways in which we can break through that cap. Looking at 12z CAMs, the cap does seem to be a little weaker than initially forecast, where some CAMs are starting to hint at late afternoon storms developing farther south than the Highway 20 corridor. Further, the latest runs of the HRRR and other high-res CAMs are starting to indicate more coverage of potential supercells, especially closer to the I-80 corridor. This is generally showing the possibility of a broken line of supercells moving west to east from mid-afternoon and through the evening. Thus, mesoscale analysis through the afternoon will be crucial, closely monitoring the extent of surface heating, moisture, along with any sources of mesoscale lift. As was mentioned, an outflow boundary from the morning convection can be in play. This has generally set up along the Interstate 80 corridor this morning, which may be a potential source of forcing necessary. This feature has become more diffuse, but still may serve as a point for initiation, especially with a strengthening LLJ. Timing wise, we are generally looking at the potential for storms to develop as early as 3PM and the severe threat lasting until around 10PM. Storms are expected to move west- east through the evening. Now, let's dive into the environment that we have in place. As was mentioned, initiation will largely be conditional on surface forcing, with best forcing in our north along the stationary front. Along and south of that boundary, the open warm sector is primed for severe convection, with the cap being the limiting factor. We will see deep layer shear around 45-55 KTs. This will couple with instability around 2500-3500+ CAPE, favorable for organized strong/severe convection. The environment is favoring supercell thunderstorms as the main convective mode. The decreased upper level support should help keep these more discrete at least through the afternoon, with a strengthening LLJ late in the afternoon increasing coverage. This CAPE profile is also quite large in the hail growth layer, with midlevel lapse rates of 7.5-8.5 C/km favoring large hail potential, with some very large hail possible. This increased hail potential has been noted by the SPC. Otherwise, while the deep layer shear is moderate-high, much of this will be seen in the lowest 3km, where the best curvature in model hodographs are seen. Thus, strong LLVL shear will also be favorable for tornadoes as well, some of which could be stronger and longer lived. In the end, all hazards are in play, with hail and tornadoes being the primary threat. A quick look at our 18z sounding would indicate higher instability is in place, with CAPE around 4000+, along with shear nearing 50 KTs. Thus, a supercell environment is in place. Along with that, our lapse rates are around 9.5 just above the cap, which is more than favorable for severe hail, some of which may be significantly severe. Now, as was forecast, a cap does remain in place. Although, it is not a strong cap, with CIN sitting around -50. Any further heating and mesoscale forcing should be able to overcome this cap. This has been hinted in latest runs in CAMs, showing an increased coverage of storms later this afternoon and evening. Tonight, we will continue to see the potential for showers/storms as the LLJ remains overhead and better forcing aloft moves in. Cloud cover will remain through the night, moderating temperatures in the 60s. While the overall severe threat will be lower overnight, some guidance hints at some wind/hail potential, but confidence is low. Tomorrow, we will see another chance for severe weather, with a Slight Risk (level 2/5) for the whole area. A similar environment will be in place tomorrow, but a little less on the instability owing to more cloud cover. Although, it will remain sufficient for convection. The main difference tomorrow will be the surface low and associated cold front passing through. Thus, plenty of surface forcing and better upper level support moving in. With such forcing in play, we are expecting more coverage of storms, especially in the afternoon and evening hours. Storm mode looks to be mixed, with initial supercells eventually growing upscale into line segments, with the main line of convection coming with the cold front that evening/night. Overall, with such forcing, the radar presentation tomorrow may look quite messy through the day. Showers/Storms may be possible through the day, but the better severe threat seems to be the afternoon and evening. All hazards will be in play, but hail and wind seem to be the primary threats at this time. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Upper wave that brought impacts to the area on Wednesday will have since pushed east of the area on Thursday, with weak upper ridging moving in. With this, we will see a surface high pass through the area, resulting in a quiet weather day. We should be geared to have quite a pleasant day, with temperatures increasing into the 70s, a westerly breeze, and decreasing cloud cover. This break of quiet weather will be short-lived though, as Thursday night into Friday, strong southwesterly flow sets up ahead of the next shortwave trough. Strong vort max will approach the area Friday afternoon and evening, with a surface low dragging a seasonally strong cold front through the area. Thus, plenty of forcing in play for storms. A brief look at the environment would indicate sufficient shear and instability in place ahead of the front, favorable for organized convection, some of which could be strong to severe. Environment would be favorable for supercell thunderstorms being the initial storm mode, which may be discrete. Although, as the day goes on and the strongest part of the LLJ core moves in ahead of the cold front, upscale growth is likely. This would lead to a QLCS event for the late afternoon and evening on Friday, where all hazards will be possible. Will refrain from further details, as much can change between now and then. SPC also has their eyes on this system, highlighting much of our area in a 15% or 30% risk for severe weather, which equates to a Slight/Enhanced Risk (level 2/3 of 5) for severe weather. A look ahead to the upcoming weekend shows a drier pattern developing for Saturday and Sunday as upper-level ridging develops to the west. A cold front should bring notably cooler and more seasonal temperatures to the area on the heels of strong, gusty northwest winds. This could bring our first bout of frost/freeze conditions during this growing season, possibly Saturday night, though winds may stay up to limit this to just a freeze potential for parts of the area, while Sunday night could bring about more widespread freeze and frost with lighter winds as high pressure builds in. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 629 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Convection across eastern Iowa will move into southern Wisconsin by 03z/15 followed by a brief lull. After 06z/15 the next round of convection will develop/move into eastern Iowa and eventually northern Illinois through 14z/15. A period of LLWS will be observed along/east of the Mississippi river through 06z/15. Potential for IFR conditions with any convection. After 15z/15 quiet conditions with diurnal convection developing after 18z/15 across mainly northern Illinois but also into eastern Iowa. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gunkel LONG TERM...Gunkel/McClure AVIATION...08  097 FXUS63 KLSX 142337 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 637 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A low chance (20%) exists for an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm this afternoon/evening. A better chance (40-60%) for a round of strong to severe thunderstorms exists overnight. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary threat. - An additional chance for strong to severe thunderstorms exists Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. Once again, the primary threats are large hail and damaging winds with lower potential for tornadoes. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Wednesday Night) Issued at 324 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Analysis of recent GOES-East mid-level water vapor imagery reveals longwave troughing near the Four Corners Region with ridging across the eastern U.S., placing our area under a southwesterly regime. Strong and persistent southerly flow, continuing to advect Gulf moisture into the region, has helped to boost instability, with MLCAPE values well over 2,000 J/kg (99th climatological percentile) for much of the area. The latest ACARS soundings out of KSTL (18Z) reveals a slightly capped environment, with MLCIN around -20 J/kg correlated with an 800mb capping inversion. A few isolated showers, with occasional flashes of lightning have been pushing eastward across IL this afternoon, struggling to intensify. With the past behavior of these showers, indication is that a weak cap is still in place for the time being, supporting the KSTL ACARS sounding. Some high-res guidance fires an isolated thunderstorm or two across the area this afternoon/evening across an environment that is favorable to support supercells, should a storm overcome the inversion, tapping into the anomalous instability available. As a result, confidence is low in an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm this afternoon/evening. The best chance for this would be the result of a subtle mid-level forcing mechanism (shortwave) passing over and/or localized areas of surface and moisture convergence occur. All of which even high-resolution guidance can't resolve with detail or accuracy, lending to the lower confidence. Lastly, if scattered convective initiation occurs, storms that form would have potential to become severe with large hail and damaging winds the primary hazards. Further upstream, across OK/KS, CAMs are keying in on convective initiation this afternoon/evening, with eventual upscale growth leading to a remnant convective system approaching the region later this evening into the overnight hours. Model guidance reveals that this convection will be initiating off a more apparent mid-level shortwave within the southwesterly flow. With a larger scale feature at play that models are able to resolve, confidence is high in convective initiation across OK/KS and eventual upscale growth of storms into our area. Atmospheric instability across our area will steadily be decreasing with the loss of insolation, which is indicated well by forecast model soundings. As a result, this complex of thunderstorms is forecast to gradually weaken with time/eastward extent. However, these storms still has good potential to be severe across our area since HREF mean SBCAPE values are around 1,000-1,500 J/kg when these storms are modeled to enter the area. Any remaining severe thunderstorms would be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds, with a lower threat for tornadoes. On Wednesday, model guidance reveals a few subtle shortwaves propagating northeastward across the region on Wednesday that could result in a messier setup with more abundant showers and convection. Confidence is low in the potential regarding any lingering convection or additional rounds of storms originating upstream from OK/KS Wednesday morning and into the day. The evolution of daytime convection across our area will have a great influence on the severe weather threat that is realized Wednesday afternoon/evening. Kinematically speaking, Wednesday will feature greater shear as the mid/upper-level longwave trough out west ejects into the Plains by Wednesday afternoon. As a result, HREF mean 0-6km Bulk Shear steadily increases from Wednesday morning until Wednesday night/early Thursday, when it peaks around 40-45kts as the longwave trough advances over the area. Our greatest threat for severe weather is still forecast to be Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night as a cold front moves through northwest-southeast. As of now, the main hazards associated with this severe threat are large hail and damaging winds with a low risk for tornadoes. A severe weather threat may linger into early Thursday across parts of southeast MO/southwest IL, as that is where the cold front will take the longest to exit. Peine && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Next Tuesday) Issued at 324 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 NAM/GFS are in general agreement that a shortwave trough will move east of the area early in the day on Thursday. An attendant surface cold front/trough will move across Missouri/Illinois with only weak convergence along it will be enough to generate showers and scattered thunderstorms, mainly over the southeastern half of CWA (60-80% chance) of the CWA during the morning before shortwave ridging begins moving in from the west. Then it looks like there will be a period of dry weather on Thursday night as the ridge moves across the area before southwesterly flow sets up over the area on Friday ahead of trough that be moving across the Plains. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase late in the day Friday and especially Friday night as ascent from the trough and forcing from the associated surface front will move into the CWA during the night in an unstable and sheared environment. These storms look to be the result of upscale growth from storms that will develop in the Mid Missouri Valley on Friday afternoon and evening. There is good agreement in the medium range models with little spread in the LREF. This front is currently on track to move through the area on Saturday which would bring an end to the showers and thunderstorms from west to east. Even with this said, if the trough/front does speed up on Friday, then there will be a greater chance for severe weather here on Friday vs if is slows down, there would be the possibility we could see strong/severe thunderstorms on Saturday. By early next week, mainly dry weather is expected as northwesterly flow sets up over the area and a large surface high moves across the area. Very few (<10%) of the LREF members are producing precipitation over the area early next week. High temperatures will be in the 70s and 80s through Friday ahead of the front before temperatures drop to around 60 degrees on Sunday behind the front. There will be some rebound in highs by Monday and Tuesday as they climb back into the 70s. Britt && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening) Issued at 628 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Convective trends are the main concern tonight. There is a very low (<20%) of storms developing through the evening, but we are also watching an area of storms upstream in Oklahoma. These storms may try and enter central Missouri after 0400 UTC, but they should tend to weaken with time. Thunderstorms are also possible again on Wednesday, with the early/mid afternoon time period being the mostly likely time frame. Visibilities in thunderstorms may briefly drop to IFR/MVFR due to downpours. Gusty winds may also be a threat. Gosselin && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX  570 FXUS64 KMRX 142337 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 737 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 736 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Well above normal temperatures expected through this week into the first half of the weekend. Record highs are possible. - Chance of showers Thursday evening, but light amounts will mean little relief from the worsening drought and fire weather conditions. - Increasing confidence of showers with a cold front passage Saturday night/Sunday morning, followed by cooler temperatures next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 115 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Hot and dry conditions continue to be the main weather story for the area, thanks to a large ridge of high pressure over the Gulf and SE CONUS. Today and Wednesday, high temperatures will be close to record highs with a SW flow, subsidence under the ridge, and limited cloud cover. Low RH values will be of concern for fire weather interests, bottoming out in the 25-35% range both today and Wednesday for most locations, but for the most part SW winds will not be higher than the 5-15 mph range. The mid/upper ridge axis gets pushed east on Thursday as a shortwave trough approaches from the west. This system brings a chance of showers Thursday evening, but weak dynamic forcing and limited moisture will result in light QPF amounts (< 0.1 on average) and little impact on the ongoing drought conditions and wildfires. There is some elevated instability that will support some thunderstorms, mainly in our Plateau counties. The ridge will build back Friday behind the exiting shortwave trough. High temperatures will be approaching records again on Friday and Saturday. Better rain chances may arrive for Saturday night into Sunday as models show a deep trough developing over the Plains that could push a cold front through our area. Model agreement, run-to-run consistency, and jet-induced dynamic forcing lead to increasing confidence of rain chances. Behind the front, cooler temperatures are expected as highs should be closer to normal, or slightly below, for Sunday and Monday. Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 04-14 87(2010) 86(1887) 85(1938) 88(2017) 04-15 87(2006) 87(1936) 85(1945) 86(2024) 04-16 89(2002) 87(1896) 87(2002) 88(2002) 04-17 91(1955) 90(1896) 85(2002) 88(1955) 04-18 90(2002) 90(1896) 87(2002) 89(2002) && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 736 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Diurnal pattern to the winds, with light to calm wind overnight likely, then a return to southwesterly flow and a few gusts to near 20 knots by tomorrow afternoon. VFR and dry otherwise. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 57 87 60 87 / 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 58 86 60 85 / 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 56 86 58 85 / 0 0 0 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 54 84 56 83 / 0 0 0 10 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...DGS AVIATION...Wellington  542 FXUS65 KPUB 142338 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 538 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Passing system to bring showers to the Northern and Central mountains tonight, with a few showers possible across Pikes Peak region and northern portions of the southeast plains. - A dry and seasonal Wednesday with spotty elevated fire danger. - Breezy and warm Thursday with the return of widespread critical fire weather conditions - Next storm system brings cooler and unsettled weather for Friday and Saturday, along with the potential for widespread sub-freezing temperatures Saturday and Sunday mornings. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 231 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Water vapor imagery and satellite data indicates upper low currently spinning across west central Colorado, with drier air within the moderate southwest flow aloft starting to filter across southern Colorado. Regional radars indicating scattered showers, and a few embedded thunderstorms spreading across the higher terrain at this time. Strengthening lee trough across the plains has helped to develop breezy south to southwest winds across southern portions of the plains at this time, with gusty southwest winds in place across the higher terrain. Latest model data remains in good agreement of said upper low weakening as it continues to lift out into northeastern Colorado this evening, with a broad upper trough then continuing into the Northern High Plains through the day on Wednesday. This will keep showers and a few embedded thunderstorms spreading out across the the Northern and Central mtns this afternoon, with a few possible showers across the Pikes Peak region and Palmer Dvd region through the evening as the passing waves cold front pushes south and east through the late evening and into early Wednesday morning. Passing showers could produce a quick inch or two of snow, with snow levels down to around 7500 feet this evening with the passing wave. Gusty southwest winds of 20 to 40 mph across the plains this afternoon become more west to northwest through the evening before diminishing behind said cold front overnight. This will keep critical fire weather conditions in place through the early evening, with current Red Flag Warning in place through 8 pm MDT. Cooler air associated with the passing wave will bring in cooler overnight lows mainly in the 30s across the plains, with teens and 20s expected across the higher terrain. Drier air within the the moderating west to northwest flow aloft will keep dry conditions in place tomorrow, save for a few possible showers across the Central mtns, with temperatures expected to be at to slightly above seasonal norms in the 60s to low 70s across the plains, and mainly in the 40s and 50s across the higher terrain. Afternoon westerly breezes could bring some spotty elevated fire danger to the interior valleys and gap prone areas, however coverage will not be enough to warrant any fire weather highlights. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 231 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Latest model data is also in good agreement of increasing west to southwest flow aloft across the region on Thursday, as the next upper trough out the Pacific Northwest digs across the Intermountain West. This will keep warm and dry conditions in place, and with gusty westerly winds, support more widespread critical fire weather conditions on Thursday, with current Fire Weather Watch for most of south central and southeast Colorado remain in place. Models are trending faster the broad upper trough translating across the Rockies through the day on Friday, bringing a quick shot of precipitation to the region Friday into Friday night. This system is progged to be colder than previous systems, with snow levels down to between 6000-7000 on Friday. The quicker movement of the system and associated cold front early Friday morning looks to keep critical fire weather conditions at bay on Friday, with high temperatures across the plains likely being reached early in the day, with cooling and breezy northerly winds being progged behind the front. With the colder air in place behind the passing system, overnight lows look to be well below freezing in the teens and 20s into Saturday morning. Those who may have already turned on irrigation systems or planted will need to monitor the forecast and may want to take proactive steps to prevent any damage from the projected sub-freezing temperatures. Dry conditions with below seasonal temperatures in the 50s and 60s can be expected on Saturday across the plains, with highs in the 40s and 50s across the higher terrain. Another period of at and below freezing temperatures in the 20s and 30s is expected Saturday night into Sunday morning, will lead to warming trend into early next week, as upper level ridging builds back across the Rockies. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 534 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. A cold front will cross the KCOS and KPUB taf sites this evening, with winds initially being gusty from the southwest, then becoming northerly this evening. Winds will be lighter tomorrow across the region. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for COZ220>222-224>237. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ227>237. && $$ SHORT TERM...MW LONG TERM...MW AVIATION...HODANISH/MW  626 FXUS64 KCRP 142339 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 639 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 636 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Moderate Rip Current Risk today through Wednesday and may continue into the weekend. - Minor coastal flooding possible the latter part of the week into the weekend. - Shower and thunderstorm chances increase this weekend with the arrival of a cold front. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 214 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Isolated weak showers currently streaming northward across the Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads will diminish this afternoon the redevelop starting early Wednesday morning. These weak showers will likely only produce trace amounts and most locations will remain dry. An isolated shower or thunderstorm could clip the area around Cotulla on Wednesday as a storm system tracks across north and central Texas. Overall, the work week still looks to be generally dry with above normal temperatures and breezy afternoons. The strongest S-SE winds are expected Friday, which will usher deeper moisture across S TX. The next chance of showers and thunderstorms with measurable rainfall is Saturday and Sunday. This is due to a cold front approaching the area Saturday, moving through S TX Saturday night, then overrunning conditions setting up behind the front Sunday. A few elevated embedded storms remain possible on Sunday. As for the probability, chances are low (10-20%) across the northern portions of the Brush Country and Victoria Crossroads Saturday afternoon, then chances increase to 25-45% Saturday night into Sunday. A 20-30% chance of mainly showers continues into Monday. Forecasted temperatures behind the front on Sunday will be a few degrees below normal with highs in the 70s area-wide with similar highs Monday. Lows generally in the upper 50s to mid 60s are expected. Confidence is increasing as the NBM has been consistent with the weekend cold front and associated convection. In addition, the deterministic models are in good agreement with this scenario. The forecast will continue to be fine tuned as the weekend approaches. So, stayed tuned! There is a Moderate Rip Current Risk today through Wednesday due to swell periods 6-8 seconds, and southeast winds 10-15 knots. This may continue through the work week as onshore winds increase over the gulf waters through Friday. Minor coastal flooding is not expected but could be close tonight through mid week. Will continue to monitor for potential Coastal Flood Advisory. The PETSS indicates increasing tide levels the latter part of the week, which is more likely for water to reach the dunes at high tide and warranting a Coastal Flood Advisory. The best chance of coastal flooding is expected behind the weekend cold front. This is due to forecasted winds out of the northeast at 20-25 knots along with an increasing swell period. The swells may also lead to an increasing rip current risk but will be offset by the "along-shore" winds. These conditions are dependent on frontal passage timing and strength. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 636 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Another period of similar forecast conditions. Southeasterly winds will gradually subside this evening while low clouds will be on the increase. Expect mainly MVFR conditions to develop before midnight and persist through sunrise before sky conditions improve during the morning hours Wednesday. Winds will increase once again tomorrow, with gusts of 25 to 30 knots in the afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 214 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A Moderate to Fresh (BF 4-5) onshore flow will persist through Thursday. A strong (BF 6)onshore flow is expected to develop across all marine zones on Friday with advisory conditions possible. Winds relax Saturday, then shift to the northeast and become strong late Saturday night into early Sunday in the wake of a cold front. Low rain chances (<~15%) expected through the end of the workweek but increase this weekend as the cold front moves across the region. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 214 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The chance for wetting rains through the work week are very low (<10%) along with continued above normal temperatures. Minimum RH values will remain generally above 30-40% through the period. South to southeast winds are expected to strengthen across South Texas Friday, but based on the forecasted above normal moisture and low ERC values, elevated fire weather is not expected at this time. The chance of thunderstorms with measurable rainfall increases over the weekend as a cold front moves across South Texas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 71 84 72 85 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 68 85 69 87 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 73 91 72 95 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 70 87 70 90 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 73 83 73 83 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 71 89 70 94 / 10 10 10 0 Kingsville 70 86 70 88 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 73 80 73 80 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TE/81 AVIATION...PH/83  681 FXUS64 KSJT 142339 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 639 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorm chances will persist into Wednesday, with a threat for severe storms each day. - A cold front is expected on Saturday, bringing low rain chances and considerably cooler temperatures for the upcoming weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 213 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...Severe Storms possible this afternoon and evening.. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop off a dryline...in the eastern Permian Basin south to the Big Bend this afternoon. These storms have the potential for severe weather as they move northeast and east into the evening. A mesoscale discussion has been issued by SPC that includes portions of the Big Country, Concho Valley and Crockett county for an 80 percent chance of a watch. Instability is high at 3000 J/KG. Very large hail of 2-3 inch diameter and severe winds possible along with isolated tornadoes. Later tonight after midnight, some of the shortterm convective models also have a second group of showers and thunderstorms, probably with an upper level disturbance. These storms become isolated by Wednesday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 116 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 There is a slight chance for isolated thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. Although we will likely cap rain chances at 20% with this activity without much in the way of forcing, or upper level support in our area. There is a better chance of more widespread coverage to our north, and in fact there is a Slight Risk for severe weather north of Interstate 20 in our area, with a Marginal Risk for the rest of the CWA. The main concerns with any storms tomorrow afternoon/evening will be large hail and damaging wind gusts. Thursday and Friday look to be quieter than the past few days, with weaker upper level, and only weak upper level shortwave energy moving through. In addition to the lack of rainfall, temperatures will surge into the mid to upper 80s. Friday night into Saturday, a strong upper level trough will move through the northern and central plains and then into the Great Lakes region. A strong cold front will move into west-central Texas after midnight, moving south of I-10 by mid morning Saturday. Although upper level support for convection will be north of our area, the lift along the cold front may be enough to support a line of showers and thunderstorms along and behind the front as it moves through. Much cooler temperatures are expected Saturday through early next week. After highs in the mid 80s to around 90 degrees on Saturday, we are expecting highs in the mid 60s to around 70 Saturday through Monday. Could see additional precipitation chances by next Monday as upper level shortwave energy moves through and interacts with warm air advection starting back up. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 629 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible through the evening hours and will maintain PROB30s in the terminals expect for KBBD. Confidence is low in any additional storms developing in the overnight/early morning hours but will continue to monitor. Otherwise, MVFR/IFR cigs are expected to spread back into the area overnight. The stratus will likely persist into the afternoon across our southern and eastern terminals. Winds will be gusty out of the south/southwest (gusts to 25 knots) in the afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 65 84 62 87 / 50 30 10 0 San Angelo 63 84 61 87 / 40 30 10 10 Junction 62 79 60 86 / 40 40 10 10 Brownwood 64 80 62 86 / 50 50 20 0 Sweetwater 65 86 61 88 / 50 20 0 0 Ozona 63 82 61 84 / 50 30 20 10 Brady 64 79 62 84 / 50 40 20 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....20 AVIATION...42  962 FXUS63 KDMX 142340 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 640 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered severe storms (Level 3 of 5) this afternoon and evening. All severe weather hazards remain possible. More widespread storms and locally heavy rainfall expected tonight, especially over the southern half of Iowa, but with a lower severe weather threat overall. - Additional rounds of severe storms and locally heavy rainfall still expected on Wednesday afternoon and evening, and again on Friday afternoon and evening. Details on those events will be fine tuned in subsequent updates. - Warm and breezy today through Friday with highs in the 70s and 80s. Much cooler readings in the 40s and 50s by this weekend, with a hard freeze likely north Saturday night. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 140 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A broad 500 MB trough is moving over the U.S. Rockies today, and is not well coalesced with several vorticity maxima strung out along its loose axis. Ahead of the trough, Iowa remains beneath southwesterly steering flow resulting in, relative to the season, warm and quite humid conditions across the state. A surface low pressure center is slowly developing ahead of the 500 MB trough, near the Colorado/Kansas border, with a nearly stationary front extending northeastward over roughly the northern half of Iowa. Satellite imagery shows agitated cumulus clouds developing along and near the frontal zone, and forecast soundings indicate a weakening EML in place that could break at any time. All CAMs initiate convection and form scattered thunderstorms within the next couple hours, most likely near the front roughly north of I-80. Instability is seasonally strong with SBCAPE in excess of 3000 J/KG south of the boundary, and impressive bulk shear values of 40-60 KT are overspreading the area. Wind profiles do show somewhat unidirectional flow in most of the column so this is nearly all speed shear, which mitigates the tornado threat somewhat. Nevertheless, surface-based convection is likely to initiate very soon and continue into the evening. Tornadoes will be possible in any localized backed flow or storms with deviant motion, most likely near the frontal boundary. In addition, any storms will be capable of large hail given the relatively cool mid-levels, strong speed shear, and impressive instability, and the stronger winds aloft will be easy to transport down to the surface with any cold pools. Thus, all modes of severe weather will be possible with the storms this afternoon and early evening. Later this evening and tonight, a subtle shortwave impulse will eject out of the broader approaching trough and move across northern Missouri and Iowa, in conjunction with a developing nocturnal low- level jet. This will provide the impetus for renewed convection tonight, with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms especially over the southern two thirds or so of Iowa. Several high- res model solutions indicate that the surface frontal boundary will be lingering in our southeastern counties this evening, roughly south of a Creston to Grinnell line, with instability pooling along it and modest convergence providing extra focus for initiation. As a result, these solutions depict stronger thunderstorms developing in that area, with forecast soundings indicating strong instability and deep- layer shear supportive of large hail and damaging wind gusts. This threat should be confined to areas near and south of the boundary, with instability waning rapidly to the north toward central Iowa. On Wednesday the broad trough over the Rockies will kick out eastward into the Midwest, with the associated surface low gradually tightening up and moving northeastward to near the Nebraska/Iowa border by the evening. Within the warm sector ahead of and wrapping into the surface low, instability will likely increase significantly during the day. However, there is considerable uncertainty in convective timing and evolution due to the after-effects of overnight storms tonight. In fact, many 12Z model runs from this morning depict additional redevelopment of elevated storms mid-to-late Wednesday morning, which would carry some threat of large hail per forecast soundings and further complicate the forecast for the afternoon and evening. Even so, the degree of destabilization during the afternoon should support more rigorous development later in the day, and once again strong instability and deep-layer shear may be very supportive of a severe weather threat. This will be particularly true as the surface low and triple point approach from the west late Wednesday afternoon/early evening, with backing flow and boundaries tied into the low supporting some enhancement of the tornado threat. These storms will surge eastward out of our forecast area by late evening, though a few weaker storms may develop later, in association with the main 500 MB trough moving through, around Wednesday night. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 1239 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 On Thursday a weak ridge will move through Iowa, providing a most welcome respite in the form of a dry, mostly sunny, and mild day with highs roughly in the 75-80 degree range and modest breezes. By Thursday night however, an even deeper longitudinal 500 MB trough will be moving into the Rockies, heralding more active weather to end the week. A surface cyclone will develop in the Southern High Plains with a long inverted trough and sharp baroclinic zone extending northeastward across the Midwest. By Friday morning this front will span from central Kansas, across northwestern Iowa, and into western Wisconsin. Destabilization will occur ahead of the front during the day Friday, and by the afternoon CAPE of 1500-2500 J/KG is likely in at least parts of our area, mainly the southern half. Deep-layer shear will be fairly modest and mostly in the form of speed shear, however the strong dynamic forcing ahead of the approaching trough, convergence along the front, and increasing instability will combine with this shear to be more than sufficient to support severe weather potential Friday afternoon and evening, as outlined by SPC outlooks. The storm system will push quickly through Friday night and clear us out, though there may be some light wraparound precipitation in our northern counties lingering into Saturday as the final lobe of the 500 MB trough moves by. With much colder air surging in behind the late Friday front and temperatures expected to fall into the 30s across much of our area by early Saturday, a few flakes of snow cannot be ruled out in northern Iowa but no real accumulation or impact would be expected. Highs on Saturday will be nearly 30 degrees cooler than on Friday, ranging in the mid-40s to mid-50s, then falling even further Saturday night into Sunday morning with lows in the upper 20s to mid-30s across Iowa resulting in a frost/freeze in many areas. The good news is this cooler weather will be short- lived, as a ridging pattern sets up in the first half of next week supporting a gradual warming trend. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 633 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Fog will again be possible in the northeast tonight, went ahead and trended more aggressive early given the last two nights. While thunderstorms have been decreasing in coverage for the short-term, multiple windows of thunderstorms exist from 06z and beyond. Thunderstorms will develop from the south overnight, affecting KDSM and KOTM the most. Hail will be possible with these. Rain and storm chances will linger after 12z for most sites, but the main round of storms tomorrow will be after 20z with all modes of severe weather possible. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 119 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Multiple rounds of seasonally moderate to heavy rain this week will lead to renewed flooding concerns. Concerns will include possible renewed or additional river flooding as well as flash flooding. Output from the GFS- and NBM-forced medium-range National Water Model (NWM) and the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System (HEFS) suggest the most likely scenario will be moderate to significant within-bank rises on many rivers and streams across the CWA over the next week, especially across the southeast half. Some locations may see minor river flooding as well. These rises will be due to the additive effect of multiple rounds of rainfall. If rainfall is higher than presently forecast then the risk of several locations seeing minor flooding and a few locations seeing moderate flooding will increase. Flash flooding is less of a concern than river flooding, however the risk is nonzero. The additive effect of rain events will result in a slightly higher risk of flash flooding from Friday into Saturday. The most likely scenario through the end of this week will be ponding of water or low-end flash flooding especially in urban areas or areas that receive repeated heavy rainfall over a relatively short time period. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lee LONG TERM...Lee AVIATION...Jimenez HYDROLOGY...Zogg  783 FXUS64 KMAF 142341 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 641 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 639 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Low to medium shower and thunderstorm chances (10-40%) today across the Permian Basin and Lower Trans-Pecos. Damaging winds and large hail remain the primary hazards for the strongest storms. - Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected across southeast New Mexico, the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains, and portions of far west Texas through Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Wednesday night) Issued at 124 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Isolated thunderstorms along a dryline cutting north-south across the central Permian Basin will develop over the next few hours and progress eastward by this evening. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main hazards that the strongest storms will be capable of producing. Storms will decay after sunset tonight and much of the area should see mainly clear conditions. A High Wind Warning continues for the Guadalupe Mountains where strong winds are expected through the early evening. A Wind Advisory also continues for the Eddy County Plains where gusty winds are expected. Localized areas of blowing dust may sharply reduce visibilities. Winds decrease by tonight. The aforementioned dryline retreats to the west tonight and keeps areas east of the TX/NM border in the upper 50s to low 60s. To the west, drier air allows for more efficient cooling and some spots dip into the upper 40s. For Wednesday, another warm day is expected with areawide temperatures reaching into the 80s. Big Bend will be the hot spot with highs in the 90s, particularly across the low desert. Isolated storms will once again be possible over the eastern most reaches of the CWA, generally east of a line from Big Spring south into eastern Pecos County. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 124 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Heading into Wednesday night, any afternoon convection from earlier that day should decay or move off to the east of the area. Drier air filters in and much of the area ends up several degrees cooler compared to the night before with many in the 50s to upper 40s. Low (10-20%) rain chances exist for the eastern Permian Basin and down towards Terrell County both Thursday and Friday afternoons. Both days will see highs reaching into the 80s to low 90s. At the same time, low RHs and increasing winds to the west of Midland/Odessa, will lead to critical fire weather conditions. A cold front is pushed through the area late Friday and into Saturday bringing temperatures below normal for Saturday. Another disturbance looks to move through on Sunday bringing cloudy and rainy conditions to areas mainly south of I-20. Rain amounts look to be low, but stay tuned to changes in the forecast. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 639 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Convection has developed near MAF this afternoon, but should stay beyond 10NM and not directly impact the terminal though local flying operations may be affected. INK/HOB could also see TS develop nearby but again stay outside of 10NM and is not mentioned in the TAFs. Winds diminish in the next couple of hours and will increase again 12-18Z Wednesday. Hennig && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 124 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A Rangeland Fire Danger Statement continues this afternoon for areas across southeast New Mexico and adjacent West Texas counties. Similar areas will be monitored for future RFDs through Thursday as similar conditions (elevated winds, minRHs below 15%, and dry fuels) are expected each afternoon. The focus shifts to Friday as a larger area of critical RHs, increased winds, and dry fuels will be assessed for a future Fire Weather Watch. An upper level disturbance makes its way into the region early Friday increasing winds and bringing a front to the area later that day and into evening. Recent rains and better RHs have improved the fuel landscape in Texas, but areas in southeast New Mexico have seen less rain and will see critically dry conditions through the rest of this week. A cold front moves through the region late Friday and into Saturday that will shift from the west and southwest to northerly. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 62 86 56 88 / 30 10 0 10 Carlsbad 55 81 48 87 / 10 0 0 0 Dryden 64 87 63 86 / 30 20 20 10 Fort Stockton 61 86 57 88 / 30 10 10 10 Guadalupe Pass 52 71 51 77 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 53 81 47 85 / 10 0 0 0 Marfa 48 78 45 83 / 10 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 62 85 56 87 / 30 0 0 10 Odessa 62 84 56 86 / 30 0 0 10 Wink 58 84 50 88 / 20 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Wind Warning until 11 PM CDT /10 PM MDT/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. NM...High Wind Warning until 10 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County. Wind Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for Eddy County Plains. && $$ SHORT TERM...93 LONG TERM....93 AVIATION...10  546 FXUS62 KTAE 142342 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 742 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 741 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Patchy fog is possible Wednesday morning over the Florida Panhandle and Southeast Alabama, mainly for areas west of the Ochlockonee River. If encountering fog while driving, slow down, use low beam headlights, and increase braking distance. - Little or no rain is expected through this weekend. Drought conditions will worsen. Fire concerns will remain elevated. Use extreme caution with any outdoor burning. Please heed burn bans where they are in effect. - Above normal temperatures will continue through this weekend, with lower 90s likely late this week. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Wednesday) Issued at 227 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Upper level ridging is firmly in place over much of the SE, with little change expected in the positioning of this ridge through the next couple of days. Under this dominant ridge, daytime high temperatures will be well-above average in the upper 80s. Some locations will likely reach and/or exceed 90F later this week, especially in our eastern counties away from the coast. Overnight low temperatures this week will be consistently in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Patchy fog is likely the next couple of mornings as winds drop to near calm overnight under the ridge. Otherwise, hot and dry conditions in addition to the ongoing drought will lead to increased fire weather concerns this week, even if surface winds underneath the ridge will be low. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 227 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The first indications of a pattern change comes later this week. A weakening trough will swing well to our north on Friday, helping to start to break down the SE ridge. A much more energetic trough follows a similar path late this weekend, fully pushing out the SE ridge this time. The associated frontal passage with the latter of the two systems will bring lower temperatures early next week, with daytime highs likely in the upper-70s/lower-80s on Monday. Despite the increased troughing, little-to-no precipitation is currently expected with either system as the greatest forcing will remain well to our north and the airmass overtop of the region will be very dry. Drought conditions will persist or worsen through the forecast period. While still far out at this time, model guidance is indicating an extremely dry post-frontal environment starting next Monday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 741 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The main concern overnight is the potential for fog, mainly at ECP and DHN. Fog is expected to develop near those locations early Wednesday morning, and dense fog cannot be ruled out. IFR to LIFR conditions are currently shown in a TEMPO group. Fog is expected to lift by mid-morning on Wednesday with VFR conditions prevailing afterwards. && .MARINE... Issued at 227 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Surface high pressure will firmly be in place over the next few days. Light to gentle winds out of the south/southeast are expected over the waters this week, with wave heights at around 1 to 2 feet. Seabreezes will likely develop and push inland each afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 227 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Hot and dry conditions will characterize the rest of the work week as strong upper level ridging persists over the region. Transport winds will be light (5-10mph) and out of the south/southwest through the forecast period. Dispersions will be moderate today but will increase on Wednesday, primarily for the western half of the CWA. Higher dispersions on Thursday are limited to our northernmost counties with moderate dispersions elsewhere. Afternoon minimum RHs will likely dip into the high-20%/low-30% each day this week. Considering this alongside the antecedent drought conditions and hot high temperatures expected, fire weather concerns can be expected each day despite the weak transport winds. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 227 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 No rain is expected for the next several days. Drought conditions will continue or worsen. For more local drought information & statements, visit the following websites: weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 58 88 58 88 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 61 81 63 81 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 58 87 58 86 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 59 89 60 88 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 58 90 58 90 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 57 88 56 87 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 62 77 63 77 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Wednesday for FLZ114-115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Montgomery LONG TERM....Montgomery AVIATION...DVD MARINE...Montgomery FIRE WEATHER...Montgomery HYDROLOGY...Montgomery  905 FXUS64 KEWX 142343 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 643 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated strong to severe storms with heavy rainfall possible across the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande late this afternoon/evening. - Another chance for isolated severe storms tomorrow - Warm and humid conditions to continue throughout the week as our active weather pattern continues. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 1229 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Current visible satellite imagery shows quite an extensive cloud deck over the area that's just now finally starting to erode from south to north. We even had some areas of drizzle form which isnt surprising as the atmosphere remains extremely moist across the area. Most should remain dry through late this afternoon as we continue to mix up the atmosphere remaining capped. Our attention then turns to the west where an approaching dryline and attendant mid-level shortwave approach the area helping to ignite convection along and ahead of this boundary. Most Hi-Res model guidance is in fairly good agreement that initiation of convection should commence over northern Mexico and push across the border into Val Verde county by later this afternoon. SPC currently has a level 2 of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms across Val Verde, Kinney, parts of Maverick and most of Edwards counties. The main risk being for large to very large (potentially 3+ inches) hail and sporadic damaging gusts. Additionally, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. A level 1 of 5 risk is places along and west of the I-35 Corridor. Agree with this as the most recent sounding at DRT shows the presence of steep mid- level lapse rates atop very moist low- level moisture just along and east of the dryline. Likewise models continue to hint at MUCAPE values of 1500 to 2500 J/kg along with 50-65kt of effective bulk wind shear and steep mid level lapse rates of 7-7.5 C/km building by this afternoon. All these factors continue to support and increase ones confidence that should convection form along this boundary we could see some very large hail late this afternoon and into this evening. Convection should then begin to spread east northeastward into parts of the Southern Edwards Plateau before weakening and perhaps reaching the western Hill Country by late this evening. Most activity is expected to wane significantly after midnight as we lose mixing potential and storms begin to encounter more stable air to the east. Additionally, any convection that forms will have rich moisture to work with and will be capable of producing torrential rainfall with a quick 1-3 inches an hour not out of the question. As a result, WPC has an area along and west of a Llano to Kerrville to Carrizo Springs in a level 1 of 4 risk for excessive rainfall. Depending on tonights convective evolution and how far east these storms make it will greatly impact our next shot for active weather tomorrow. Less storms tonight generally means more active weather for tomorrow with the opposite being true if we end up seeing storms progress further east as the atmosphere will need time to recover and reload. As such, SPC continues to keep us in a level 1 of 5 risk for the same areas as today with main risks being damaging wind gusts and large hail. Most Hi-Res models continue to struggle on the exact placement convection will occur and this is likely due to the uncertainty surrounding the evolution of the convection tonight. Regardless, with the upper level trough nearing our area Wednesday the more likely scenario would be convection forming over the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country and pushing off to the northeast. Most activity should be well off to the north and east by overnight Wednesday as upper-level ridging starts to build in allowing many to finally dry out and warm up. Regarding high temperatures Wednesday, most should expect to find themselves in the mid 80s with areas that see more sun possibly nearing 90 degrees. Lows tonight and tomorrow night will remain abnormally warm with many not dropping below 70 degrees. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1229 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 As alluded to briefly in the short term, upper-level ridging builds across the area by early Thursday and continues into Friday before a deep trough is forecast to bring an attendant cold front through most of North Central and South Central TX. As this happens expect convection to blossom out and ahead of this front as southerly low-level flow along with southwesterly flow aloft should help funnel in rich moisture from the Gulf. Expect convection to take advantage of this setup with WPC once again highlighting a level 1 of 4 risk in an area along and north of a Fredericksburg to Buda to La Grange line. Once this front passes we should see much colder air spill in behind it with highs Thursday and Friday near 90 dropping into the 70s by Sunday. Additionally, expect some off and on showers Sunday into Monday as mid-level southwesterly flow remains. By Monday we should see the peak of this CAA with areas perhaps not making it out of the 60s especially across the Hill Country with a gradual warmup expected as southerly low-level flow finally returns by Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 638 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A possibly severe thunderstorm is approaching DRT from the west. This storm may move across the airfield within the next hour bringing strong, gusty winds and possibly large hail. We are not confident enough to include hail in the TAF, but there is a chance. The Austin and San Antonio airports are VFR and will be through the evening. MVFR ceilings will develop around midnight and last overnight. Ceiling will lower at DRT after midnight and drop to IFR Wednesday morning. All terminals will rebound to VFR by early afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 69 85 69 89 / 10 30 20 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 68 85 68 89 / 0 20 20 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 68 85 67 89 / 0 20 10 0 Burnet Muni Airport 67 81 66 85 / 20 50 30 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 69 86 69 89 / 60 20 10 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 68 82 67 88 / 10 30 30 0 Hondo Muni Airport 67 84 65 88 / 20 30 10 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 68 85 68 89 / 0 20 20 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 69 86 70 89 / 0 10 10 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 70 85 68 89 / 10 20 10 0 Stinson Muni Airport 70 86 70 90 / 0 20 10 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CJM LONG TERM....CJM AVIATION...05  846 FXUS66 KMTR 142345 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 445 PM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 124 PM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Near normal temperatures continue through Thursday before temperatures warm heading into the weekend - Periods of gusty offshore winds, especially at higher elevations, Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning - Increasing confidence for widespread beneficial rain Sunday into the beginning of next week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 124 PM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 (This evening through Wednesday) Low level stratus is breaking up across the Bay Area with sunny skies to continue into the afternoon/evening. Another round of stratus is expected tonight along the coast and portions of the SF Bay Shoreline. Locally patchy fog remains possible tonight across the interior valleys, particularly across the North Bay Valleys and southern Salinas Valley. The upper level pattern remains fairly stable in the short term as a deep upper level trough moves into the PNW and more meridional flow (becoming slightly troughy on Wednesday) prevails over California. This will result in Tuesday looking fairly similar to Monday with coastal highs in the 50s to 60s, interior highs in the 60s, and portions of the interior Central Coast in the low 70s. Morning low temperatures will be in the 40s to low 50s with portions of the interior Central Coast and the elevated terrain dropping into the upper 30s. Diurnally breezy onshore winds continue through Wednesday with gusts to around 20 to 30 mph across favored gaps/passes and along the coast in the afternoon/evening. There is some potential for coastal drizzle on Wednesday but if any does occur no accumulation is expected. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 124 PM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 (Wednesday night through next Monday) There is a slight pattern change Wednesday night into Thursday as a high amplitude ridge moves into the West Coast. This will bring gusty offshore (northerly) winds across the region with gusts between 30-40 mph across the highest peaks. Winds will be strongest across the North Bay Interior Mountains and the interior East Bay. Fire concerns remain minimal thanks to the recent wetting rains across the region last weekend. Winds shift onshore again by Saturday and continue through the remainder of the Long Term Forecast. High temperatures will see a gradual warming trend Thursday into the weekend with highs building back into the mid to upper 70s across the interior and 60s along the coastline. By Sunday, the upper level ridge will have progressed eastward and another deep upper level trough will move into the West Coast. This low is coming from the Gulf of Alaska and will bring us our next round of rain. The highest rain totals look to be in the coastal mountain ranges with lower amounts expected across the rest of the Bay Area and Central Coast. Temperatures will cool Sunday and Monday with interior highs in the 60s to low 70s on Sunday dropping into the low to mid 60s on Monday. Coastal high temperatures will remain in the 50s to 60s. Gusty onshore winds are possible Sunday into Monday as this next system arrives but it does not meet Wind Advisory Criteria. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 429 PM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Strong onshore winds will gradually taper off over the next 3-6 hours this evening. High clouds associated with a cold front over far northern California will start to spill over the Bay Area and Central Coast tonight. Under these pre-frontal clouds, there will still be some marine layer stratus impacts before the actual surface front moves through Wednesday night. Vicinity of SFO...Sustained winds have remain between 15-20 knots for the last few hours. These strong winds will persist for another couple hours before the sea breeze impacts decrease later this evening. There is a 20-30% chance for MVFR ceilings through 18Z Wednesday before the low clouds should start mixing out. More than likely the ceilings will be transient and temporary through the first 18 hours of the TAF. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...With a better exposure to the ocean, the southern terminals have the best chance for MVFR ceilings early Wednesday morning. Despite this, there is very little chance for them to drop below 1,000 feet. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 429 PM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 High pressure over the NE Pacific will continue to support a fresh NW breeze and moderate seas over the coastal waters through Wednesday afternoon. A mostly dry cold front will push through Wednesday night, followed by a push of strong to near gale force NW'rlys Thursday. These winds will build rough seas of 10-12 feet across the exposed coastal waters. Winds will ease back to a moderate NW breeze Fri-Sat, allowing seas to gradually subside. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay- Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Wednesday to 9 AM PDT Thursday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Wednesday to 3 PM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Wednesday to 9 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kennedy LONG TERM....Kennedy AVIATION...Flynn MARINE...Flynn Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  672 FXUS65 KGJT 142345 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 545 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler, wetter weather continues through Wednesday morning with valley rain and mountain snow. Slick travel conditions are expected above 10,000 feet. - Sub-freezing temperatures are expected for most valleys tonight into Wednesday morning where the Freeze Watch was upgraded to a Freeze Warning. A Freeze Watch is in effect for a few valleys Wednesday night into Thursday morning as well. - After a brief mid-week warm up, colder and unsettled weather returns to the region Thursday night into Saturday morning with widespread hard freeze possible as well as mountain and high valley snow. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1146 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 WET WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY: The low pressure system providing the beneficial moisture is currently seen spinning over east-central Utah and tracking northeast into west-central Colorado late this morning, with showers moving southwest to northeast. We have been seeing a steady light precipitation with some pockets of moderate to heavy rates dependent on stronger convective showers. Lightning appears more isolated at the moment but could see better coverage of thunderstorms this afternoon as hi-res CAMs are indicating some pockets of 200 to 300 J/kg of CAPE. Gusty winds and small hail are possible with convection that does form as we've seen already this morning. Across the higher terrain, some snow is falling but roadways remain wet due to the milder temperatures associated with this particular low pressure system. We could still see slushy and slick conditions at the higher passes and low visibility with falling snow despite the mostly wet roads but impacts will be more localized to the higher passes above 10,000 feet. Caution still urged if traveling. Shower activity will continue into the evening but should begin to lessen in coverage after sunset as the shortwave trough exits to the east and drier northwest flow moves in behind it. Showers appear confined to the divide after midnight through Wednesday morning. FREEZE POTENTIAL: As the system moves out this evening, sub-freezing temperatures appear likely tonight through Wednesday morning for most lower valleys with exception of the Grand Valley and valleys of east- central and southeast Utah. Therefore, upgraded the Freeze Watch to a Freeze Warning for those areas. The growing season is well underway for all lower valleys so protect plants and sensitive vegetation if you are impacted. Temperatures begin to warm Wednesday and Thursday with dry conditions expected but we still have potential for below freezing temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday morning for the southwest Colorado valleys and the Central Colorado River Basin (valleys east of New Castle and south of Glenwood Springs to Carbondale), so issued a Freeze Watch for those areas Wednesday night. More widespread freeze potential arrives with the next colder system Thursday night and especially Friday night into Saturday morning, so stay up to date on the latest as more freeze highlights are likely. MUCH COLDER SYSTEM FRIDAY AND LOOKING AHEAD: In addition to the warmer temperatures Thursday (5 to 10 degrees above normal), southwest winds increase Thursday ahead of a more potent and colder low pressure system with potential for gusts in the 30 to 45 mph range. Critical fire weather conditions are possible across central and southern valleys due to combination of low relative humidity and gusty winds...all dependent on fuel status. This next system looks to have a strong cold front associated with it with temperatures falling 15 to 25 degrees behind the front leading to a widespread hard freeze possible Friday night into Saturday morning. It's too soon to say how much snow this system will produce, but snow may drop into the lower valleys behind the front. At this time, it does at least appear like the mountains and higher valleys of northwest Colorado and northeast Utah are favored for better accumulations. Looking beyond Saturday, a high pressure ridge builds back in this weekend into early next week, resulting in a return back up towards above normal warmth as the rollercoaster spring weather continues. However, another storm system potentially looms for mid to late next week, so we still look to remain in this progressive pattern. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 531 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Precipitation begins to taper off from west to east this evening. KASE, KEGE, and KTEX are expected to hold on to the precipitation a little longer than all other TAF sites. Cloud cover begins to decrease overnight, with some passing high clouds expected for most of Wednesday. Winds will be generally light once this storm system moves through, but gusts begin to pick up Wednesday afternoon, generally in the 15-20 kt range. Although, some TAF sites will see gusts exceeding 20 kts. With that being said, VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Wednesday for COZ001-002-007-008-011-020>023. Freeze Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday morning for COZ008-021>023. UT...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Wednesday for UTZ024. && $$ DISCUSSION...MDA/DB AVIATION...TGJT  152 FXUS63 KAPX 142347 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 747 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Ongoing flooding may worsen with additional rain and storms this evening and tonight. Heaviest rain expected south of M-72, especially along/south of M-55 where 1"+ is possible. - Strong to severe storms are possible again this evening into tonight. Primary hazards will be damaging winds and large hail. - Additional rounds of rain and mild temperatures through this week before turning cold late this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 400 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Pattern Synopsis: Subtle shortwave/jet max embedded in southwest mid/upper-level flow will punch overhead this evening and tonight. At the surface, a stationary boundary draped across the middle of the state and back across portions of the Midwest will provide the focus for thunderstorms over the next several hours. Little substantial airmass change should allow these boundaries to hang across the area into Thursday before eventually working south. Ridging looks to slide overhead for a brief time Friday before strong troughing digs across the central CONUS and Great Lakes this weekend. Forecast Details: Primary concern will be another expected round of thunderstorms later this evening and early tonight. Current confidence is that storms will fire much further upstream across parts of the Midwest this afternoon and eventually work east into Michigan -- similar to last night. That said, expectation is that strongest storms and heaviest rainfall will track slightly further south than what was observed last night. Highest threat area for strong storms and associated heavy rainfall will be south of M-72, and specifically along and south of M-55. This corridor has the potential to see additional rainfall totals of 1"+ overnight. Rainfall amounts taper off from south to north, ranging from 0.25"-0.5" near M-72 to around 0.10" across the Tip of the Mitt. Locally higher amounts are possible with any stray storms that track across this area. Any additional rainfall tonight will only exacerbate ongoing flooding across northern Michigan -- the magnitude and widespread nature of which is particularly impressive for the area. Storms this evening will also carry the potential of producing severe weather. The most likely corridor of potential strong/severe storms will also be along/south of M-72 between 8 PM and 1 AM Wednesday. The primary concerns with any strong storms this evening on top of additional flooding will be damaging winds and large hail. Storm chances look to move out a few hours after midnight. After tonight, patchy dense fog will be possible Wednesday morning again along with isolated light rain chances through most of the day before much better rain/storm chances return again late Wednesday into Thursday. A break in rain chances is anticipated on Friday with aforementioned ridging before more showers and storms are expected again on Saturday. Unfortunately for those across impacted flood areas, additional rain chances will likely only prolong impacts over the next several days as water levels try to come down. Now for the exciting part -- after a stretch of mild temperatures in the 60s and 70s, snow chances make a triumphant return on Sunday as temperatures plunge back into the 20s and 30s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 734 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Conditions deteriorate through the night with areas of FG and IFR to LIFR CIGs. VSBYs expected to decrease across all terminals, with 1/2 SM or lower at times. Shower and thunderstorm chances expected around 01Z and 05Z from KTVC and KMBL, VCTS possible at KAPN as well. Activity moves east through the night with continued IFR to LIFR VSBYs and CIGs. VSBYs slowly improve through the day on Wednesday although low CIGs continue. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Flood Watch through late Thursday night for MIZ016>018-020>036- 041-042-086>088-095-096-099. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DJC AVIATION...JLD  972 FXUS63 KDLH 142347 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN Issued by National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 215 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Additional dense fog overnight into Wednesday morning, especially for shoreline counties and the MN Borderlands. - Scattered thunderstorms likely on Friday. A few storms could be strong to severe. - Colder late Friday and into Saturday, with rain changing to snow possible. Any snow accumulation would be light. The chance for travel impacts is low. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1259 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Current Conditions/Today and Tonight: Early afternoon radar and and satellite imagery showed an area of showers with embedded thunderstorms across the arrowhead of Minnesota. These were located ahead of a compact little shortwave trough that was skirting along the MN/CA border. For the rest of the afternoon and evening, expect dry conditions as this system exits to the east. Meanwhile, wind remain fairly light under the influence of a baggy pressure gradient, and that will set the stage for another night of low clouds and fog. Wednesday/Thursday: A couple of days of dry and warm weather are in store for the Northland on Wednesday and Thursday. Wednesday could start out cloudy and foggy, so temperatures depend on how quickly we can clear out. On Thursday, an area of low pressure will organize across the High Plains, and this will bring southerly winds across the region. Current humidity forecast is around 30 to 35 percent, so will have to watch the trends for fire weather concerns. Otherwise expect spring-like weather with highs in the 60s to near 70, except along Lake Superior. Friday/Monday: This low pressure system across the High Plains will track eastward on Friday as a longwave trough amplifies over the central CONUS. That will bring surge of warm and moist air across the Upper Midwest, while drier moves on top of it. This will set the stage for thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening ahead of an approaching cold front. As of now, the most likely area for storms is along I-35 and east. A few storms could be strong to severe owing to the favorable deep layer shear and 1000 to 2000 J/kg of instability. The primary threat will probably be severe hail, but there is a wind threat given the unidirectional shear profile. In the wake of this front, expect much cooler temperatures as northwest wind ushers a return arctic air. Meanwhile the overall storm system will become better organized, and an area of deformation precipitation will develop Friday night into Saturday. Thermal profiles support a rain-to-snow transition. Any snow accumulation should be less than an inch of slushy wet snow on grassy surfaces. One would expect lesser snow amounts if this falls during the day on Saturday given the April sun angle and warm pavement temperatures. Snow will end Saturday night, but the cool air will last through the weekend with highs in the lower 40s Sunday and lower 50s Monday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 645 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 After partial clearing and lifting ceilings at inland terminals this evening, predominant IFR to LIFR conditions are again forecast for most terminals tonight. Dense fog is very likely at shoreline and MN Borderland terminals tonight into 12-15Z Wednesday. Ceilings and visibility improve from 15 to 20Z Wed. with VFR conditions late tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening. Expect light and variable easterly winds through this TAF period. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 212 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Scattered rain and thunderstorms are no longer expected today, as they have shifted to the northeast. There is still dense fog. For the next few days, winds will be light. Waves will be less than 2 feet both Wednesday and Thursday. On Friday, southerly winds will bring high waves along the north shore. A strong cold front will bring northwest winds Friday night into Saturday, with waves 3 to 5 feet or higher, especially along the south shore on Saturday. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 212 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The fire weather risk is low today and Wednesday. The rest of today will have high RH today due to low clouds and high RH. On Wednesday, RH will be a bit lower, but winds will remain light. On Thursday, southerly winds will increase to around 20 mph and RH values will drop to around 30 to 35 percent. Southerly winds will be stronger on Friday, but humidity will increase. A cold front will pass through on Saturday and bring northwest winds and cooler temperatures for the weekend. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MPX AVIATION...NLy MARINE...MPX FIRE WEATHER...MPX  955 FXUS63 KDLH 142349 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN Issued by National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 215 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Additional dense fog overnight into Wednesday morning, especially for shoreline counties and the MN Borderlands. - Scattered thunderstorms likely on Friday. A few storms could be strong to severe. - Colder late Friday and into Saturday, with rain changing to snow possible. Any snow accumulation would be light. The chance for travel impacts is low. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1259 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Current Conditions/Today and Tonight: Early afternoon radar and and satellite imagery showed an area of showers with embedded thunderstorms across the arrowhead of Minnesota. These were located ahead of a compact little shortwave trough that was skirting along the MN/CA border. For the rest of the afternoon and evening, expect dry conditions as this system exits to the east. Meanwhile, wind remain fairly light under the influence of a baggy pressure gradient, and that will set the stage for another night of low clouds and fog. Wednesday/Thursday: A couple of days of dry and warm weather are in store for the Northland on Wednesday and Thursday. Wednesday could start out cloudy and foggy, so temperatures depend on how quickly we can clear out. On Thursday, an area of low pressure will organize across the High Plains, and this will bring southerly winds across the region. Current humidity forecast is around 30 to 35 percent, so will have to watch the trends for fire weather concerns. Otherwise expect spring-like weather with highs in the 60s to near 70, except along Lake Superior. Friday/Monday: This low pressure system across the High Plains will track eastward on Friday as a longwave trough amplifies over the central CONUS. That will bring surge of warm and moist air across the Upper Midwest, while drier moves on top of it. This will set the stage for thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening ahead of an approaching cold front. As of now, the most likely area for storms is along I-35 and east. A few storms could be strong to severe owing to the favorable deep layer shear and 1000 to 2000 J/kg of instability. The primary threat will probably be severe hail, but there is a wind threat given the unidirectional shear profile. In the wake of this front, expect much cooler temperatures as northwest wind ushers a return arctic air. Meanwhile the overall storm system will become better organized, and an area of deformation precipitation will develop Friday night into Saturday. Thermal profiles support a rain-to-snow transition. Any snow accumulation should be less than an inch of slushy wet snow on grassy surfaces. One would expect lesser snow amounts if this falls during the day on Saturday given the April sun angle and warm pavement temperatures. Snow will end Saturday night, but the cool air will last through the weekend with highs in the lower 40s Sunday and lower 50s Monday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 645 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 After partial clearing and lifting ceilings at inland terminals this evening, predominant IFR to LIFR conditions are again forecast for most terminals tonight. Dense fog is very likely at shoreline and MN Borderland terminals tonight into 12-15Z Wednesday. Ceilings and visibility improve from 15 to 20Z Wed. with VFR conditions late tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening. Expect light and variable easterly winds through this TAF period. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 212 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Scattered rain and thunderstorms are no longer expected today, as they have shifted to the northeast. There is still dense fog. For the next few days, winds will be light. Waves will be less than 2 feet both Wednesday and Thursday. On Friday, southerly winds will bring high waves along the north shore. A strong cold front will bring northwest winds Friday night into Saturday, with waves 3 to 5 feet or higher, especially along the south shore on Saturday. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 212 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The fire weather risk is low today and Wednesday. The rest of today will have high RH today due to low clouds and high RH. On Wednesday, RH will be a bit lower, but winds will remain light. On Thursday, southerly winds will increase to around 20 mph and RH values will drop to around 30 to 35 percent. Southerly winds will be stronger on Friday, but humidity will increase. A cold front will pass through on Saturday and bring northwest winds and cooler temperatures for the weekend. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NLy AVIATION...NLy MARINE...NLy FIRE WEATHER...NLy  436 FXUS63 KIND 142349 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 749 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Active pattern this week with near daily chances for showers and storms. Friday likely to be the driest day of the week. - Scattered storms possible this afternoon and evening for Central and North Central Indiana, scattered severe possible. - Near record warm temperatures expected through Saturday with multiple days in the 80s and lows in the 60s. && .DISCUSSION (This evening through Tuesday)... Issued at 303 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 An MCS over the upper Mississippi Valley decayed over central IL early this morning, but its outflow boundary continued to push through central Indiana, of which led to isolated thunderstorms and showers north and west of Indianapolis. This boundary is now stalling over central IL as it interacts with modest SW flow ahead of a developing low pressure system. Visible satellite imagery is starting to define this boundary, of which is currently along a line from Bloomington to Terre Haute; this is supported by the mass fields in the surface analysis. North/East of this boundary there is still signals of some mid-level stability both in the cloud features and from ACAR sounding analysis at KIND. However to its South/West, modest moisture advection is aiding in quick destabilization showcased by areas of "popcorn" cumulus. Convective initiation is expected to begin over the next few hours over this area, quickly pushing eastward, reaching central Indiana between 4 and 6PM. Cells initially could begin elevated, but should quickly erode the weak cap and become surface based with progression. Parameter spacing for severe weather is rather robust today with an expected 2-3 kJ/kg of CAPE and greater than 40kt of effective shear. This should allow for organized/strong updrafts to develop with a broad risk of damaging wind gusts and large hail. While tornadoes are not the primary threat, there will be a chance of isolated tornadoes this evening. The primary concern will be with cells that become highly deviant along the aforementioned boundary and brief spin-ups within cell mergers. The severe threat should wane after 02Z as subsidence on the backside of the MCS increases convective inhibition. Focus will then turn to upstream convection over the western Great Lakes. The primary threat will likely stay well to the north overnight, but residual outflow boundaries tomorrow could focus initiation over northern portions of the area in the morning and early afternoon, with the thunderstorm threat continuing into the early evening. Confidence in specific locations for thunderstorms is low, and will greatly depend on the evolution and progression of upstream convection tonight. Instability will remain high tomorrow but shear will not be quite as organized leading to a lower overall severe threat, with a marginal threat of damaging winds and large hail for most of central Indiana. The active pattern will continue into the weekend with multiple waves bringing additional chances for storms then upper ridging expected to bring drier and cooler air for the start of the new week. Wednesday night will start off with an upper short wave tracking from the central plains to the Great Lakes with showers and storms along and ahead of the associated cold front. Main threats with this system will be lightning and stronger wind gusts mixing down within stronger storms. The persistent SW flow will prolong the above normal temperatures through Saturday as highs will range from the 70s to mid 80s and lows in the 50s to 60s. Friday will see a break in rain chances then a deep trough will prompt another round storms for Saturday. Models show that the surface low with this system will be unaligned and tracking ahead of its upper component. This will potentially make Saturday's system more diurnally driven rather than synoptically forced. At this time, strong deep layer flow will be parallel to the cold front which could be enough to form a line of storms with damaging winds being the main concern. Outside of storms, stronger gusts are likely Saturday and into Sunday since the elevated portion of the system will be lagging behind. General gusts Saturday could reach as high as 35-40 mph and around 25 mph on Sunday. There are still some differences on when the associated cold front would exit, but likely sometime late Saturday into the overnight hours, behind which cooler and below normal temperatures will return at least for the first couple of days of the new week. Lows Monday morning could be approaching near freezing to mid-30s. Surface high pressure behind the front looks to track over the Ohio Valley, allowing for dry weather for the start of the new week as well. && .AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 747 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Impacts: - Mainly SSW winds through the TAF period, gusting to 17-25KT - Non-zero chances of additional convection this evening - LLWS at KLAF 05Z-14Z...and lower chances of LLWS at KIND 06Z-09Z tonight - Greater chances of convection Wednesday after 16Z Discussion: Mainly VFR conditions will prevail near central Indiana terminals into Wednesday evening. Recent convection has exited the region to the east...with non-zero chances for additional storms this evening that are too low to include in any TAF. FEW/SCT lower clouds are possible at times into Wednesday...with BKN low-VFR CIGs possible Wednesday morning. MVFR is possible in any stronger convection after 16Z, especially at KLAF/KHUF...although confidence is low in flight rules for any hour/terminal with multiple/subtle boundaries guiding convective initiation Wednesday. Breezy, mainly south-southwest flow to prevail through Wednesday, with slight changes in direction possible, especially near any showers. Flow with gust usually 17-25KT, with generally higher gusts during the day Wednesday. LLWS overnight tonight through 14Z at KLAF, and possibly brief LLWS at KIND overnight, but confidence too low to include in TAF. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ AVIATION...AGM DISCUSSION...KF/Updike  922 FXUS61 KBUF 142349 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 749 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes have been made with this update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Warm with rounds of showers and thunderstorms through much of the week. 2) Marginal risk for isolated severe thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall through Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Warm with rounds of showers and thunderstorms through much of the week. Broad ridging will remain in place across the eastern CONUS through the end of the week...with a parade of shortwave impulses (some convectively-enhanced) rippling northeastward along the periphery this ridge and across our region. In the process...these features and their associated weak to modest surface lows will track northeastward along a persistent frontal zone draped across the Great Lakes and Northeast...causing this boundary to waver north and south while also generating frequent rounds of showers and scattered thunderstorms. Digging more into the forecast details...the first in the series of these waves is now in the process of Southern Ontario...with the last of its initial round of convection now in the process of crossing the North Country. As we push through the afternoon and the attendant surface low pushes east into the Saint Lawrence Valley... it will swing its trailing cold front southeastward across our area. Coupled with convergence along a lake breeze boundary setting up to the lee of Lake Erie and diurnal heating...this will likely lead to another round of convection from the Southern Tier northeastward across the Finger Lakes and into central New York...while further north the stabilizing flow off the cooler waters of Lakes Erie and Ontario should lead to a much lower chance of storms across the lake plains. This next round of convection should then die out fairly quickly early this evening with the loss of heating/departure of the cold front and collapse of the lake breeze boundary...with a relative lull then following for the balance of the evening. Overnight and Wednesday we'll get to do things all over again as yet another convectively enhanced shortwave and surface low/attendant warm frontal segment makes its way across the central Great Lakes and southern Ontario. This will bring another round of fairly widespread warm-frontal showers and scattered thunderstorms that will cross our region from west to east between later tonight and the first part of Wednesday morning. Following the passage of these we can expect another relative lull between the mid morning and early afternoon hours...before the trailing cold front/developing lake breeze boundaries/diurnal destabilization lead to another round of showers/scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon...with the greatest convective potential again likely to lie across areas inland from lake breeze boundaries. Wednesday night through Thursday night it'll be more of the same as a stronger mid-level shortwave trough and surface low will track from the Upper Midwest to southern Ontario, then into New England... resulting in yet another warm frontal/cold frontal passage with each of these features accompanied by additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms. By Friday...the guidance diverges some with how quickly this system departs...with it possible that at least some showers/a few storms could linger into at least part of Friday... especially across eastern portions of the area. KEY MESSAGE 2...Marginal risk for isolated severe thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall through Wednesday. Numerous rounds of showers and thunderstorms will cross our region through Wednesday, with a few of these rounds potentially bringing a risk of isolated strong wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall. The next of these should affect areas primarily from the southern Tier northeastward across the Finger Lakes into central New York... along and ahead of an advancing weak cold front and to the lee of more stable lake shadows off both lakes. Within this area... developing weak to moderate surface-based instability and strong/ largely unidriectional flow aloft may support a low risk for some isolated strong wind gusts. This round of convection and any severe risk will end by early this evening with the departure of the cold front/collapse of any lake breeze boundaries and diminishing instability. Later tonight and Wednesday morning...the next convectively-enhanced shortwave/surface low and warm frontal segment will approach and cross our area from west to east along with another round of widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms. While not at a favorable time of day...a few of the above storms could still pose a risk of locally strong wind gusts if any bowing segments from upstream manage to persist as these cross our region. In the wake of this round of convection...diurnal heating should again allow weak to moderate instability to develop inland from developing lake shadows...with the associated lake breeze boundaries and the approach of yet another weak cold front combining with this to yield yet another round of showers/storms during the afternoon. The greatest coverage of these will again likely lie from the Southern Tier across the Finger Lakes...with a strong and mostly unidirectional flow aloft again supporting a risk for mainly isolated strong/damaging wind gusts. This said...low level shear will be a bit greater than today and may support a low...but also nonzero risk of an isolated tornado across the Southern Tier...where available instability looks to be the greatest. Finally...PWATs will be in the 1.25-1.50 inch range at points. While a continued fast flow aloft should help to keep any storms moving along and any flooding risk on the lower side...any training of storms could result in a localized flash flood risk should the latter develop. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... To start the 00Z TAFS prior convection has now shifted south and east of our region, with a brief break in showers and thunderstorms for the TAF sites. A moist, southwest flow over the still cold lake waters may develop some areas of fog, with IFR or lower visibilities, northeast of the Lakes...with this fog rolling in across KBUF and KART tonight...with the fog possibly remaining till the next round of storms arrives. A convective shortwave trough will drive the next round of storms across the TAF region late tonight. Lingering instability across WNY of over 1000 J/KG of MUCAPE will lend to both thunderstorms and showers later tonight, with activity spreading east of Lake Ontario around sunrise. The moisture rich atmosphere will lend to heavier rain, with this lowering flight conditions to IFR at times. Any thunderstorm also has the potential for gusty winds. This convective activity will carry eastward through the morning hours of Wednesday. A dry period will ensue behind this activity with a return to MVFR or VFR flight conditions, though developing lake breeze boundaries will likely bring another round of showers and thunderstorms, scattered in nature, to our region through the afternoon hours. Outlook... Wednesday night through Thursday night...VFR/MVFR with some local IFR at times. Numerous rounds of showers and scattered thunderstorms. Friday...VFR/MVFR with showers possible. Saturday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers later in the afternoon. Sunday...A mixture of MVFR/IFR with rain showers mixing with and changing to snow through the day. && .MARINE... SCA-level conditions across eastern Lake Erie...the Niagara River...and western Lake Ontario will diminish quickly late this afternoon and early evening as the pressure gradient across our region weakens. Rounds of showers and scattered thunderstorms will cross the lower Great Lakes today through Thursday. A few storms may produce locally higher winds and waves along with lightning strikes. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JJR AVIATION...Thomas MARINE...JJR  927 FXUS63 KFSD 142350 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 650 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated strong to severe storms are possible mainly Wednesday afternoon along and east of a Spencer to Sioux City line. Ping pong ball sized hail and 60 mph winds will be the main threats. - Elevated to near critical fire danger is expected Thursday with a break from rainfall, much warmer temperatures, strong winds, and low humidity. Winds may lead to elevated conditions Friday, although shower and storm chances may temper concerns. - Strong to severe storms will be possible again on Friday, though uncertainty in the timing of a cold frontal passage leads to a lower confidence forecast regarding the extent of the severe weather threat. As of now, areas near and east of I-29 are favored for stronger storms. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 233 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Radar is picking up on a stripe of showers extending from roughly Marshall, MN to Gregory, SD this afternoon, but most of this will not be reaching the ground due high cloud heights and dry air beneath said clouds. Scattered showers and storms will continue to develop off to our south and west over the next hour or so where the greater surface moisture is. Can't entirely rule out an elevated thunderstorm over northwest Iowa as soundings show a few hundred J/kg of CAPE lifted from around 750 mb this afternoon, but likely not enough for severe weather. However, small hail would be possible with mid level lapse rates around 7-7.5 C/km and 50-60 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear if a thunderstorm can develop. A boundary will be lifting northward across the region late tonight into Wednesday morning. The NAMNest is the fastest with this boundary arrival, bringing in storms to the Highway 20 corridor just before sunrise Wednesday, but this remains an outlier. What's more likely to occur is showers and storms not developing until the afternoon as the boundary continues drifting northward and instability increases due to daytime heating. Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible given mid level lapse rates greater than 8 C/km and bulk shear in the 45-55 kt range. The main threat with any of these afternoon storms would be large hail up to ping pong ball in size followed by damaging wind gusts to 60 mph. If we do get morning showers or storms tomorrow, then that may limit the ability for the atmosphere to recover in the afternoon, thus less afternoon instability. The best chance of an isolated severe storm Wednesday afternoon will be roughly along and east of a Spencer to Sioux City line. Any storms will push east of the area heading into Wednesday evening as the surface low and upper wave move out of the area. We are dry for Thursday, but this may come with the potential for critical fire danger in parts of the area. Southwesterly winds look to return for areas mainly along and west of I-29, which will help drop relative humidity values down to 25% and below Thursday afternoon. With temperatures in the 80s and winds gusting to 25 to 30 mph, a very high fire danger can be expected for most of the area. Uncertainty remains on how strong the winds will get and how far east these stronger winds make it, and if the grasses are starting to green up enough to prevent more widespread fire weather concerns. With that, held off on fire weather headlines for now until certainty grows. The main western US trough that has been helping to send all these impulses across the area over the past couple of days will finally move eastward heading into Friday, pushing a strong cold front into the area. Ahead of the front, warm and moister air will be favorable for thunderstorms, some of which could be strong to severe mainly east of I-29. Timing of the cold front will play a role in how much coverage of storms can be expected, with a faster passage meaning a lower threat and a slower passage leading to a greater threat of stronger storms. One thing is for more certain is the colder air that will follow this system, with lows expected to drop below freezing for most of the area by Saturday morning. This means some rain with this system may at least briefly turn to snow as the precipitation exits the area, but confidence is very low on this potential. Either way, expect much cooler temperatures heading into the Friday night through Sunday morning time frame. After this push of colder air, ridging aloft looks to return and thus a quick warming trend looks possible into early next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 644 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Mainly VFR conditions with occasional MVFR vsbys will be possible this TAF period. Taking a look across the area, a few scattered showers continue to progress through areas east of I-29 this afternoon. Could see additional showers and potentially thunderstorms develop near KSUX and the U.S. Highway-20 corridor overnight. With this in mind, decided to add a PROB30 group for the increasing potential of MVFR vsbys with the developing activity. Otherwise, lighter winds will continue for the duration of the TAF period. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Samet AVIATION...05  582 FXUS62 KCAE 142350 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 750 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation discussion updated for 00z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1. Well above average temperatures, along with dry weather conditions, will continue into the weekend. - 2. Continued with a limited chance for rain on Sunday, but rainfall would be light and short-lived. - 3. Refreshingly cooler but very dry start to next week. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1: Well above average temperatures, along with dry weather conditions, will continue into the weekend. Getting harder to say the same things, but reality is there is not much that has changed. Upper ridge remains in control through Thursday, then will weaken slightly for Friday as an upper trough passes north of the region. Unfortunately the best moisture tracks northward with that upper trough. The ridge then builds back in for Saturday. This continues to keep hot and dry weather across the region into the early part of this weekend. Temperatures climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s through the end of the week, and can not rule out approaching or breaking a daily record high at some point. Hottest days should be Friday and Saturday, with guidance into the low to middle 90s for most areas. I guess on the bright side, the latest blends appear to keep the highest temperatures through the period below the all time April record highs, which are 96 degrees at both Columbia, SC and Augusta, GA. Key Message 2: Continued with a limited chance for rain on Sunday, but rainfall would be light and short-lived. Upper ridge breaks down by Sunday as a deeper upper trough digs into the eastern portions of the U.S. This will help to drive a cold front into and through the area Sunday. There should be a slight increase in moisture ahead of the front, but not enough to bring widespread needed rain. What may develop and move through is expected to be somewhat scattered and rather light from late morning through the afternoon. The best chance for seeing this still appears as if it will be over the central/northern Midlands Sunday afternoon, with the southern Midlands and the CSRA potentially remaining dry with this front. Key Message 3: Refreshingly cooler but very dry start to next week. Behind the cold front, a break from the Summerlike temperatures will occur as a refreshingly cooler airmass moves into the region to start off next week. We go from temperatures being well above normal, to readings generally near normal for a bit. In addition, a return of much drier air will also be occurring with this airmass. Highs both Monday and Tuesday next week will potentially be in the low to middle 70s. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions generally expected. Clear skies and light winds have been ongoing across the forecast area as high pressure continues to dominate the weather. There isn't much else to say, this forecast will be a rinse and repeat of the previous 24 hours. Another 20 knot low-level jet is forecast to develop tonight, which should keep surface winds between 3 and 6 knots. AGS/OGB may continue to see ground fog as they have this week but it is basically a coin flip as to whether the low-level jet is strong enough to keep it at bay or not. Added a generic TEMPO group to both sites for 3SM and SCT003 just to cover the possibility. As we get into tomorrow, the low-level jet will mix down with winds of 10 knots or so expected out of the southwest for most of the day. Mostly clear skies are forecast. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...High pressure to dominate through the upcoming week, the chance for widespread restrictions remains low. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...7 AVIATION...PL  616 FXUS61 KRLX 142351 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 751 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation Forecast Discussion update. Also modified shower and storm chances this evening based on current radar trends. Currently monitoring a complex of storms racing across western Ohio this evening that may skirt by our far northwestern zones late tonight. The loss of daytime heating will yield a weakening trend for these storms over the next few hours, so activity may not be too impressive as they reach the Ohio River Valley. 149 PM update... A Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms has been expanded south to include the Metro Valley for this afternoon and evening. A slight risk now encompasses a portion of Perry County. Minor adjustments have been made to timing for Thursday night and Saturday night precipitation. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1.) Isolated to scattered strong thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening, primarily across southeast Ohio and northern West Virginia. A few storms may produce marginally severe wind gusts or hail. 2.) Record to near-record heat will persist through Saturday with afternoon highs reaching the mid to upper 80s, and isolated 90s possible mid-week. 3.) Elevated fire danger continues through the week due to anomalous heat, afternoon relative humidity values in the 20 to 30 percent range, breezy conditions and antecedent dry dead fuels. 4.) A strong cold front Saturday night into Sunday will end the heatwave, bringing a period of beneficial rain followed by much cooler temperatures and potential frost by Monday morning. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Deep-layer shear is increasing to modest levels near 35KT this afternoon as a weak shortwave impulse traverses the periphery of the southeastern ridge. While capping remains a concern near H700, diurnal heating is expected to erode inhibition across the north. Mixed-layer CAPE values are forecast to reach 500-1000 J/kg, supportive of multicell clusters. Given steep low-level lapse rates and a substantially dry sub-cloud layer with surface-to-H500 dewpoint depressions, marginally severe downburst winds are the primary threat, though semi-discrete cells could produce isolated large hail. The greatest risk area extends from the northern border south to the Metro Valley. Convection will diminish tonight with the loss of heating. KEY MESSAGE 2... An amplified long-wave pattern remains established with a strong 590dam ridge anchored over the Gulf and Florida. This will maintain an unseasonably warm airmass across the region through Saturday. High temperatures will average in the mid to upper 80s daily, roughly 15 to 20 degrees above normal. Record highs are specifically challenged Wednesday and again Friday/Saturday when H850 temperatures peak between 14C and 16C, supporting surface values near 90. Should stay mainly dry Wednesday, Friday and Saturday, a shortwave Thursday could bring some precipitation chances, but probably tough sledding for anything to survive when encountering the ridge and associated substantially dry low levels. Maintained what are probably a little optimistic central guidance PoPs. KEY MESSAGE 3... Fire danger remains enhanced through the week as drought conditions worsen with the lack of widespread rainfall. Afternoon minimum relative humidity will bottom out in the 20s and 30s through Saturday (minus today). Combined with daily southwest gusts of 20-25 mph and very dry fine fuels, rapid fire spread in leaf litter and dead grasses is possible. This will be somewhat mitigated by rapidly increased canopy coverage across the lowlands. KEY MESSAGE 4... A significant pattern shift occurs this weekend as a deep trough moves into the eastern U.S.. A strong cold front is timed to cross the area Saturday night, with PoPs peaking in the 50-60 percent range. While QPF has looked lean in previous runs, this system offers the best chance for meaningful rain in the next 7 days. Strong cold advection follows, with H850 temperatures dropping significantly by Sunday night. Highs will retreat to the 60s for Sunday and Monday, with areas subject to cold air drainage away from major rivers seeing frost potential by Monday morning. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... General VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period, with brief interruptions possible under the guise of showers and storms. For tonight, storms dashing across Ohio may attempt to reach our northern terminals late tonight, but the loss of daytime heating will yield a weakening trend as they progress eastward. Confidence was not high enough to impose any flight chances this evening due to the anticipated weakening of convection. A drier day is in store for Wednesday, maintaining VFR conditions through the end of the valid TAF period. Southwesterly winds will hover around 5kts overnight before becoming breezy around 15 to 20kts once more during the day Wednesday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Thunderstorms may have direct impacts at PKB late tonight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 04/15/26 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z THURSDAY... VFR conditions will generally prevail through the week. However, brief periods of MVFR to IFR restrictions are possible within isolated showers and thunderstorms, with a higher likelihood of MVFR to IFR restrictions Thursday night and late Saturday. && .Climate... Unseasonably warm conditions continue through Friday with daytime highs challenged at least Wednesday and Saturday. Forecast / Record High Temperatures ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Tue, 4/14 | Wed, 4/15 | Thu, 4/16 | Fri, 4/17 | ------------------------------------------------------------------------ CRW | 83 / 88 (2018) | 89 / 89 (1994) | 86 / 89 (2002) | 84 / 89 (1976) | HTS | 84 / 87 (1941) | 88 / 87 (2024) | 85 / 89 (2024) | 86 / 87 (1976) | CKB | 83 / 87 (2018) | 87 / 83 (1974) | 84 / 86 (2002) | 79 / 88 (1969) | PKB | 82 / 85 (1941) | 87 / 84 (2024) | 85 / 88 (2002) | 81 / 89 (1976) | BKW | 76 / 83 (2018) | 82 / 82 (2012) | 80 / 84 (2002) | 78 / 84 (1976) | EKN | 80 / 85 (2018) | 85 / 81 (2012) | 81 / 85 (2012) | 78 / 87 (1976) | ------------------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------- Sat, 4/18 | --------------------- CRW | 89 / 90 (2019) | HTS | 89 / 89 (1955) | CKB | 85 / 88 (1976) | PKB | 87 / 91 (1976) | BKW | 84 / 86 (1976) | EKN | 84 / 88 (1976) | --------------------- && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JP AVIATION...05 CLIMATE...JP  376 FXUS64 KSHV 142351 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 651 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1215 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Chance for some showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday with an upper low riding over the Plains on SW flow. - The weekend cold front is looking earlier on Saturday with more needed rainfall and cooler readings Sunday into Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1137 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Surface ridge across the Atlantic Ocean extending westward across the northern gulf coast combined with a low across the Kansas will maintain increased southerly flow of gulf moisture through the middle of the weekend. An eastward moving upper-level trough across the Desert Southwest into the Central Plains will lead to steepening lapse rates across eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas this evening and overnight as heights gradually fall across these areas. The combination of a moist boundary layer and increasing instability aloft could allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms across northeast Texas and southeast Oklahoma overnight. Although the ArkLaTex is outside of the SPC Day 1 severe weather threat outlook, a few strong storms could venture into portions of southeast Oklahoma allowing for gusty winds and possibly small hail near daybreak. Another shortwave trough to swing east across the Texas panhandle into Oklahoma on Wednesday evening allowing for another round of convection across southeast Oklahoma and Arkansas into the overnight hours. A few strong storms may be possible across portions of southeast Oklahoma with widespread rainfall expanding into Arkansas as upper forcing wanes. Conditions to improve on Thursday as weak upper-level ridging builds across the region. However, southwest flow to return by Friday allowing for increased instability ahead of a frontal boundary that will move across the region on Saturday. Could see widespread showers and thunderstorms across the entirety of the ArkLaTex on Saturday, lingering across areas south of Intestate 20 into Saturday evening. Otherwise, cool and dry high pressure to build areawide by Sunday with highs in the lower 70s and lows Monday morning in the mid to upper 40s. /05/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 647 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 For the 15/00Z TAFs, widespread afternoon Cu will dissipate into the evening hours, while OVC skies build in across our far northwestern airspace, giving way to a mix of mid to high level clouds which which will persist through much of the night. As daybreak approaches, another round of MVFR CIGs will impact area terminals, gradually lifting and breaking into the day tomorrow. South winds will continue throughout at maximum sustained speeds of 7 to 12 kts, with gusts of up to 20 kts possible. /26/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1240 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Spotter activation will not be needed until late Wednesday. /24/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 65 85 67 87 / 0 0 20 20 MLU 63 88 66 89 / 0 0 10 20 DEQ 63 80 62 83 / 20 40 80 30 TXK 67 85 67 86 / 10 20 60 20 ELD 62 85 64 86 / 0 0 30 30 TYR 67 84 68 86 / 0 30 40 10 GGG 66 84 67 86 / 0 20 30 10 LFK 65 85 67 88 / 0 10 10 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...05 AVIATION...26  860 FXUS61 KPBZ 142352 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 752 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation discussion has been updated for 00Z TAF issuance. Otherwise no changes to the forecast or discussion since this afternoon. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Anomalously warm temperatures this week. Daily record high max and minimum temperatures will be challenged and possibly broken, especially on Wednesday. 2) Increasing daily storm chances this week with a possible multi- day MCS event. Areawide marginal Risk of severe weather today. 3) Severe risk continues Wednesday with a Slight Risk of severe weather north of I-70 and Marginal Risk between I-68 and I-70. Storm chances to continue Thursday as well. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... The ridge anchored across the Southeast and eastern Gulf continues to influence our weather through the week. At its strongest, the ridge will near 590dam (just over 2 standard deviations above normal for this time of year). This abnormally strong ridge will continue to support abnormally high temperatures (over 3 standard deviations above normal) across the region through the work week and possibly as late as Saturday. Our location on the northwestern side of the ridge will continue warm and moist southwesterly flow over the coming days. Locally, heat looks to peak on Wednesday, with 500mb heights hitting 580dam over the city and widespread 850mb temperatures between 14-16C, suggesting that unhindered mixing would see temperatures surge into at least the middle 80s. Probabilities of high temperatures over 80 degrees remain near and over 60% for areas south of I-80 each day from Tuesday- Thursday and then again on Saturday. Friday looks like heating may be interrupted by a rain-laden cold front pushing through the region. This could finally help shake up the pattern before models seem to indicate another Low moving through the Great Lakes early this weekend. Record high max and min temperatures look like they will be tied or set at several sites across our region, especially on Wednesday and Thursday. Daily rain chances look to be the only thing possibly keeping a lid on record challenging runaway heating. These chances are highest north, closer to the periphery of the ridge, and thus probabilities of record setting heat generally decrease from south to north. Each site features at least one day with a >40% chance to set a new record high and PHD (shortest climate record) features 3 days with >70% chance. Concurrently, each site also features at least 2 days with >50% chance of setting new record high minimum temperatures and PIT features 5 straight days with >65% chance of doing so. PIT features several "low hanging fruit" in this category with 3 such daily high minimum temperatures in the 50s. Our forecast for Wednesday lows may break the old record of 58 by a whopping 8 degrees. Minor heat risk continues areawide today through Thursday before retracting some on Friday. Heat impacts will primarily be felt by those who are extremely sensitive to heat and those without cooling/hydration. Speckled moderate risk areas continue to crop up Wednesday and Saturday and are expanding in area, mainly in the Ohio and Mon river valleys. KEY MESSAGE 2... We are at the beginning of what looks like it could be a multi- day MCS event across the Great Lakes and into our region. This pattern owing to our anomalously strong ridge feels much more like a June setup than an April one. Warm and moist southwesterly flow will set the table each afternoon for storms to fire along decaying or residual boundaries left over from the previous nights convection and renewed convection cresting the top of the ridge could press into the forecast area overnight starting the whole process again. Todays convection is having a difficult time eroding the warm layer. As seen on the 12Z southing, strong capping was present at 700MB and below that. Thus storms are having a difficult time of developing and getting some depth. Early showers and thunderstorms have likely weaken the cap a bit. With afternoon heating, it will remain to be seen if deeper convection is realized as at this time, CAMs are struggling to develop anything now. Thus, it is likely that the development this afternoon will be subsevere. Certainly, a 40 mph gust can't be ruled out with an overperforming strong storm. Overnight, it looks likely that we decouple in a rapidly worsening environment. Several CAMs depict one or more bowing segments moving across southern MI towards us late tonight. These segments tend to move quicker than modeling suggests but would still likely not enter the region until after 2am or so. By this time it looks unlikely but still possible to see a damaging wind threat from these storms. KEY MESSAGE 3... The ridging and shortwave pattern and thus multi-day MCS event continues into Wednesday. Wednesday sees more impressive heating and increasing moisture advection in continued southwesterly flow. As such, model soundings feature well over 2000 J/kg of CAPE across much of the region, very impressive for our region in April. This comes hand in hand with a 5-10kt increase in shear when compared to Tuesday. These elements could allow for isolated to scattered super cellular structures to develop across the region or for a quick reinvigoration of any ongoing MCS/MCV left over from Tuesday night. Multi-day MCS propagation forecasting is very low confidence, with Wednesday's forecast highly dependent on Tuesday night. Storms on Wednesday look like they could bring all severe hazards, with increasing low-level moisture lowering LCLs and more robust CAPE at the SFC and in the -20 to -30C range. SPC has introduced a Marginal Risk to our region north of the Mason- Dixon Line and a Slight Risk north of I-70 on Wednesday. Timing for this seems to point more toward the 16Z to 20Z timeframe with additional convection after 23Z. Both time periods currently have a decent potential for development of severe storms. Storms look likely to continue on Thursday, but the pattern breaks down a little as a more meaningful SFC low moves through the Great Lakes. This could end the multi-day MCS event but could bring its own renewed chance for storms along the draping cold front. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... With the afternoon wave of showers and thunderstorms departing to the east, focus shifts towards another around of thunderstorms currently developing over western Ohio. Most guidance shows that activity dissipating (or at least weakening) before reaching the local area, with only some mid and high clouds (VFR cigs) passing through overnight and possibly an isolated lingering shower or two. Wednesday's outlook is eerily similar with potential for thunderstorms but a wide range of timing/coverage solutions in play, while VFR conditions and breezy southwest winds prevail outside of storms. First round most likely appears to be a line of dissipating/decaying showers and storms that dives south into the area during early and mid morning hours (roughly 10z-15z timeframe). Guidance suggests this only makes it to roughly the I-70 corridor before dissipating completely. Therefore only have prevailing showers and TEMPOs for reduced visibilities at FKL/DUJ where highest confidence in potential restrictions resides, while PROB30s are used at remaining terminals farther south. A lull in activity is anticipated during late morning and early afternoon, followed by another round of thunderstorms in the late afternoon/evening. Expecting a more scattered coverage with late day round but also a non- zero threat for damaging wind gusts and hail. Outlook... The Upper Ohio River Valley will remain positioned near the upper ridge axis throughout the week and make it liable for multiple shortwave crossing to foster periodic showers/thunderstorms and precip-driven restrictions. A pattern shift is unlikely to occur until late Sunday into Monday before confidence becomes high again on a prolonged period of dry, VFR weather. && .CLIMATE... See below for record max highs and max lows this week: Today, April 14th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 86F (1883) 64F (1896) Wheeling, WV: 87F (1941) 60F (2014) Morgantown, WV: 86F (2018) 66F (2014) New Philadelphia, OH: 82F (2023) 56F (2006) Zanesville, OH: 87F (1941) 60F (1899) DuBois, PA: 86F (2023) 60F (2014) Wednesday, April 15th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 85F (1883) 61F (1967) Wheeling, WV: 82F (2010) 59F (2002) Morgantown, WV: 86F (1993) 65F (1967) New Philadelphia, OH: 82F (2010) 58F (2023) Zanesville, OH: 85F (1941) 61F (1972) DuBois, PA: 79F (2003) 56F (2002) Thursday, April 16th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 86F (2002) 63F (2017) Wheeling, WV: 86F (1945) 64F (2002) Morgantown, WV: 88F (2002) 64F (2012) New Philadelphia, OH: 85F (2002) 62F (2017) Zanesville, OH: 86F (2002) 65F (1912) DuBois, PA: 82F (2012) 59F (1976) Friday, April 17th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 87F (1896) 63F (1896) Wheeling, WV: 84F (2002) 64F (2002) Morgantown, WV: 89F (1976) 64F (1960) New Philadelphia, OH: 84F (2002) 60F (1982) Zanesville, OH: 88F (1896) 66F (1896) DuBois, PA: 83F (2002) 60F (2002) Saturday, April 18th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 90F (1896) 64F (1896) Wheeling, WV: 85F (2025) 63F (2002) Morgantown, WV: 92F (1976) 64F (2013) New Philadelphia, OH: 86F (1976) 57F (2019) Zanesville, OH: 92F (1896) 66F (1896) DuBois, PA: 87F (1976) 61F (2002) && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Shallenberger/AK AVIATION...Cermak  719 FXUS61 KCLE 142352 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 752 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Scattered thunderstorms are moving into the area on the northern fringe of a stronger complex moving into west central Ohio. Hail has been the primary threat upstream but an isolated severe wind threat is also possible over the next couple hours. An Enhanced Risk now clips far NW OH with strong winds the primary concern, but large hail and a tornado or two still possible. Confidence continues to increase in the heavy rainfall potential trough Wednesday night. A Flood Watch has been issued across NW OH from 00Z Wednesday to 12Z Thursday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Multiple rounds of severe weather are possible through Thursday with an additional potential on Saturday as the active pattern continues. All hazards are at play. 2) There is increasing concern about the potential for flooding across the area. A Flood Watch has been issued for portions Northwest Ohio. 3) Above normal temperatures will continue through Saturday before cooler temperatures return Sunday into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A very active pattern will bring the potential for multiple rounds of severe weather today, Wednesday, Thursday and again on Saturday. Focusing on the remainder of today/tonight first, there is currently a Slight Risk across much of the area (Marginal risk in NWPA) for the potential of strong to severe storms producing strong winds, large hail, and non-zero potential for tornadoes. The atmosphere appears to be destabilizing quickly this afternoon after the morning round of convection moved east. Dewpoints have climbed into the 60s with strong southwest WAA. Patches of clearly skies are also being observed, further enhancing the daytime heating. As a result, SBCAPE has already climbed to 1000 to 2000 J/kg across the western counties, allowing for an area of storms to develop. These storms may continue to ride the theta-e gradient towards the northeast, but are expected to weaken as the environment becomes less conducive. With that being said, these pop up showers will likely be possible through much of the afternoon, even with an overall lack of large scale support. The larger concern for severe weather across northern Ohio will be tonight as a LLJ and mid-level shortwave traverse the region. These components should enhance ongoing convection upstream of the area, which will ultimately push east. Best thought on timing at this point is onset near Toledo between 3-5Z Wednesday, gradually spreading east. The path of the system should closely mirror the warm front that will be established north of the area, keeping the greatest severe potential along and north of US30. With that being said, strong outflow colliding with an unstable atmosphere further south will have the potential for additional convection to develop along those boundaries, which is the primary reason SPC has shifted the Day 1 Severe Outlook further south. Through tonight there will be many moving parts that will have to be monitored, making this forecast extremely tricky and maintaining rather low confidence at this point. All hazards will be at play, although the tornado threat should be isolated to any storms that develop ahead of the main MCS. Now shifting to the remainder of the week. Multiple shortwaves and surface low pressures are expected to traverse the region, bringing the potential for additional severe weather on both Wednesday and Thursday. Both days, the severe potential will be highly dependent on how well the atmosphere recovers after overnight/early morning convection. On Wednesday, right now the best timing looks to be in the afternoon and evening with the primary hazard being strong winds, although large hail and a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. SPC has highlighted much of the area in a Day 2 Slight Risk. On Thursday, a slightly more defined, yet still weak cold front will push east early in the day. This frontal boundary would likely be the focus of any convection and to highlight this SPC has pus the western portion of the area in a Marginal Risk. Last but not least, there is also a severe weather potential on Saturday as a deepening upper level trough pushes into the region with strong synoptic support and a strong cold front pushing east. Given this is rather far out, not going to dive into the details as they will likely change, but to highlight this risk SPC has highlight much of the CWA in a 15% probability of severe weather on Day 5. TLDR: There are multiple chances of severe weather through Thursday with all hazards at play. Timing and intensity remain uncertain at this point. A potent trough will push east this weekend, moving a strong cold front east on Saturday and resulting in another potential round of severe weather. SPC has highlighted all of these concerns in the various severe weather outlooks. KEY MESSAGE 2... With this very warm and moist airmass, similar more to late spring/early summer conditions, heavy rainfall associated with convection is likely. Modeled PWAT values of 1.25-2" are expected to persist into Thursday as sustain southwesterly flow continues to stream deep layer moisture across the region. Although QPF totals remain very uncertain, especially given the uncertainty in the various rounds of convection, there is a good chance of very efficient rainfall rates of 1-2" per hour in the strongest storms. These rates are supported by a deepening warm cloud layer and periods where a skinny CAPE profile are predominant in modeled soundings. In addition, some of the convection should be enhanced by a strengthening LLJ that nudges northeast into the region, which will further enhance heavy rainfall potential. These conditions combined with recent heavy precipitation across the area may result in localized flooding and rises in streams and rivers, especially in areas that receive multiple rounds of convection. Given the increasing confidence in the heavy rainfall potential, a Flood Watch has been issued for portions of NW OH beginning at 00Z Wednesday through 12Z Thursday. Will have to continue to monitor the evolution of storms over the next 48 hours to determine any additional hydrologic headline needed. KEY MESSAGE 3... As recently discussed in most of the AFDs, northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania continue to reside in a pattern of above average temperatures with daily highs into the 70s and overnight lows in the 60s. These temperatures will persist through Saturday before a strong cold front pushes east and cools temperatures back to near average for this time of year. High temperatures on Sunday and into early next week will only climb into the 50s with overnight lows dropping into the 30s. Given the prolonged warmth the area has seen this week, the growing season has officially begun for all of the Ohio Counties in the CWA. With the cool down expected, will have to monitor for any frost potential early next week. && .AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/... Cluster of thunderstorms moving into west central Ohio has been producing scattered large hail. Thunderstorms are starting to expand into north central Ohio as moisture increases. Ceilings have generally been VFR upstream but could briefly drop to IFR if the core of a storm moves overhead over the next couple hours. Expecting a general weakening trend as storms continue to the northeast through 03Z. Next we turn our attention to a larger complex of storms over Wisconsin. This larger complex of thunderstorms looks to approach the Toledo area after 05Z and could be strong to severe while also producing heavy rainfall. Have tried to time this feature southeast across the local area but uncertainty does remain in storm evolution and refinements will likely be needed. MVFR ceilings are possible for a few hours Wednesday morning behind the rain. It is unclear if this system will push through or if rain will linger long into the morning. The boundary is expected to lift north on Wednesday afternoon and serve as the focus for additional showers and thunderstorms. Southwest winds will remain breezy for much of the period. A low level jet does increase to 40 knots near 2K feet overnight but expecting enough surface winds to not include in the TAFs at this time. Outlook...Periods of non-VFR conditions are expected in showers and thunderstorms through Thursday. && .MARINE... Winds across Lake Erie remain between 10-20 knots out of the south to southwest today. As with previous days, the resultant waves of 3-5 feet will be higher in the open waters and towards Canada. Generally, winds will remain out of the southwest at 10-15 knots across the lake through Friday. High pressure will build into the region on Friday and winds will become light at around 5 knots and variable. By Saturday, winds will increase again out of the south to 15-20 knots as a warm front moves north across the lake. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for OHZ003-006>009-018- 019. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...04 AVIATION...10 MARINE...23  177 FXAK67 PAJK 142352 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 352 PM AKDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Key Messages: - Clear skies through Wednesday morning before clouds begin to move in preceding more precipitation Wednesday night into Thursday - Another front reaches the northern panhandle Thursday night, continuing precipitation through Friday and into the weekend && .SHORT TERM...Drier weather has spread across SE AK as a low dips south of the panhandle, bringing the arrival of spring in full force across the area. Clear skies will allow for warmer daytime high temperatures, with colder nighttime lows and patchy fog development through the early morning hours for parts of the southern and central panhandle. The primary changes made to the forecast were increases in northerly flow for the inner channels, alongside some upward adjustments to high temperatures for Wednesday. The ridge building over SE AK will keep precipitation at bay through most of Wednesday, with cloud cover steadily increasing through Wednesday evening as a shortwave manages to move over the ridge axis and into the panhandle. This shortwave will increase precipitation chances across the northern outer coast and eventually spread into the rest of the panhandle, though precipitation is expected to remain light and mostly rain. See the long term discussion for more information. .LONG TERM.../Thursday through Sunday/...Minimal changes have been made to the long term forecast, with increased confidence in a shortwave trough bringing light precipitation to the northern panhandle Wednesday night into Thursday morning. This organized band of precipitation will move into the northern outer coast overnight and spread southeast through the early morning. Overnight temperatures are still expected to get cold enough for parts of the northern panhandle, mainly Yakutat and the northern highways at higher elevations, to see snow or a rain/snow mix with the initial band of precipitation into Thursday morning. These temperatures will increase to above freezing through daytime hours, which will limit any snowfall from accumulating through Thursday. Onshore flow will push showers over the panhandle after the band moves over, continuing on and off precipitation until late Thursday night when a more organized frontal band reaches the northern outer coast and pushes inland overnight. This front is expected to mainly impact the northern and central panhandle through early Friday morning, but moist onshore flow will continue precipitation through the rest of the panhandle during this period. Higher resolution models are showing a chance for parts of the southern and central panhandle to see some breaks in weather during this showery period on Friday, but many of the medium-range models depict more consistent moisture lingering over the entire panhandle. Temperatures should stay warm enough to keep precipitation as rain into the weekend, though rainfall rates will remain on the lighter side. The only real wind issue is expected near the typical hot spots from Thursday into Friday as the front moves inland, with Lynn Canal, southern Stephens Passage near Five Finger Lighthouse, and around Point Couverden potentially seeing small craft advisories through this period. Active weather is expected to persist over the northern panhandle, especially the northern outer coast around Yakutat, through Saturday morning before another low pressure system jumps up into the southern gulf which will bring consistent precipitation back to the rest of the panhandle. This is expected to continue through Saturday before another front moves in along the northern gulf coast, forcing the lingering precipitation to shift southeast out of the panhandle. Uncertainty still remains on the position of the low center and how strong this upcoming front will be, which will impact the timing of the previous system moving out and the next front moving in. The EC is thinking this front will move in through SUnday morning and blanket the entire panhandle, while the GFS is hanging back with the front moving in Sunday night and only reaching parts of the northern panhandle. Due to the northern location of this low, precipitation has the possibility of falling as snow overnight for northern locations such as Yakutat and the northern highways. Updates to the timing of this late weekend system will be made as the period gets closer. && .AVIATION...For the late afternoon flying weather update, we note a weakening area of low pressure centered near Klawock at 14/23Z. That is producing a few showers across the southern-most areas of the Alaska Panhandle late today, temporarily dropping localized ceilings and visibilities down to MVFR (through 15/04Z or so). That weak area of low pressure will shift slowly east into British Columbia by morning, with high pressure building eastward into the eastern Gulf of Alaska tonight into Wednesday resulting in a drier airmass working in from north to south across the Alaskan Panhandle, with northerly flow moderately increasing on the east side of the eastern Gulf ridge. For the northern panhandle, locations are expected to remain dry with predominantly VFR conditions. Clear skies across the panhandle tonight brings the possibility for isolated fog in the northern panhandle. For the southern portions, widespread fog is not generally expected, although as the boundary layer in the lowest few thousand feet decouples at the surface late tonight for some areas, patchy fog to IFR can be expected. Otherwise generally we expect VFR overnight most sites as dry light northerly flow tomorrow keeps flight categories VFR in the afternoon. && .MARINE... Outer Coastal Waters: Westerly fresh to strong breezes continue across the outer coastal waters on Tuesday. Wave heights of 5 to 6 ft in the northern gulf and to 7 to 8 ft in the southern gulf will steadily decrease through Wednesday to around 4 and 6 ft, respectively. Winds will begin to turn more southeasterly as a system approaches through the northern gulf Wednesday night into Thursday. Inner Channels: Northerly winds have strengthened above what was previously anticipated, bringing N/S oriented channels up to a fresh to strong breeze (20-25 kt) through Tuesday. Winds are expected to diminish through Tuesday evening before flipping out of the south Wednesday morning and remaining light. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-031>033-036-641-642-661-662. && $$ SHORT TERM...GFS/ZTK LONG TERM...ZTK AVIATION...Garmon/Perez/Butwin MARINE...GFS/ZTK Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau  178 FXUS63 KDLH 142352 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 652 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Additional dense fog overnight into Wednesday morning, especially for shoreline counties and the MN Borderlands. - Scattered thunderstorms likely on Friday. A few storms could be strong to severe. - Colder late Friday and into Saturday, with rain changing to snow possible. Any snow accumulation would be light. The chance for travel impacts is low. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1259 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Current Conditions/Today and Tonight: Early afternoon radar and and satellite imagery showed an area of showers with embedded thunderstorms across the arrowhead of Minnesota. These were located ahead of a compact little shortwave trough that was skirting along the MN/CA border. For the rest of the afternoon and evening, expect dry conditions as this system exits to the east. Meanwhile, wind remain fairly light under the influence of a baggy pressure gradient, and that will set the stage for another night of low clouds and fog. Wednesday/Thursday: A couple of days of dry and warm weather are in store for the Northland on Wednesday and Thursday. Wednesday could start out cloudy and foggy, so temperatures depend on how quickly we can clear out. On Thursday, an area of low pressure will organize across the High Plains, and this will bring southerly winds across the region. Current humidity forecast is around 30 to 35 percent, so will have to watch the trends for fire weather concerns. Otherwise expect spring-like weather with highs in the 60s to near 70, except along Lake Superior. Friday/Monday: This low pressure system across the High Plains will track eastward on Friday as a longwave trough amplifies over the central CONUS. That will bring surge of warm and moist air across the Upper Midwest, while drier moves on top of it. This will set the stage for thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening ahead of an approaching cold front. As of now, the most likely area for storms is along I-35 and east. A few storms could be strong to severe owing to the favorable deep layer shear and 1000 to 2000 J/kg of instability. The primary threat will probably be severe hail, but there is a wind threat given the unidirectional shear profile. In the wake of this front, expect much cooler temperatures as northwest wind ushers a return arctic air. Meanwhile the overall storm system will become better organized, and an area of deformation precipitation will develop Friday night into Saturday. Thermal profiles support a rain-to-snow transition. Any snow accumulation should be less than an inch of slushy wet snow on grassy surfaces. One would expect lesser snow amounts if this falls during the day on Saturday given the April sun angle and warm pavement temperatures. Snow will end Saturday night, but the cool air will last through the weekend with highs in the lower 40s Sunday and lower 50s Monday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 645 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 After partial clearing and lifting ceilings at inland terminals this evening, predominant IFR to LIFR conditions are again forecast for most terminals tonight. Dense fog is very likely at shoreline and MN Borderland terminals tonight into 12-15Z Wednesday. Ceilings and visibility improve from 15 to 20Z Wed. with VFR conditions late tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening. Expect light and variable easterly winds through this TAF period. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 212 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Scattered rain and thunderstorms are no longer expected today, as they have shifted to the northeast. There is still dense fog. For the next few days, winds will be light. Waves will be less than 2 feet both Wednesday and Thursday. On Friday, southerly winds will bring high waves along the north shore. A strong cold front will bring northwest winds Friday night into Saturday, with waves 3 to 5 feet or higher, especially along the south shore on Saturday. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 212 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The fire weather risk is low today and Wednesday. The rest of today will have high RH today due to low clouds and high RH. On Wednesday, RH will be a bit lower, but winds will remain light. On Thursday, southerly winds will increase to around 20 mph and RH values will drop to around 30 to 35 percent. Southerly winds will be stronger on Friday, but humidity will increase. A cold front will pass through on Saturday and bring northwest winds and cooler temperatures for the weekend. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Dense Fog Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Wednesday for MNZ010>012-019>021-037. WI...Dense Fog Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Wednesday for WIZ001>004. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Wednesday for LSZ140>148-150. Dense Fog Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Wednesday for LSZ142. && $$ DISCUSSION...NLy / MPX AVIATION...NLy MARINE...NLy / MPX FIRE WEATHER...NLy / MPX  168 FXUS62 KTBW 142353 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 753 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Critical RH values across the region the next few days. - Above average temperatures continue through the week. - Moderate to extreme drought conditions continue. && .UPDATE... Issued at 753 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Surface high pressure building in from the north has kept warm and dry conditions in place today, with the warming trend forecast to continue through the rest of the week. The biggest forecast concern overnight is the possibility of patchy fog developing by early Wednesday morning, mainly over the Nature Coast under light winds and dew points in the upper 50s. However, HREF guidance continues to show that the probability of dense fog developing is too limited to include in the forecast at this time. Overall, the forecast looks on track, and no significant changes are planned for the evening update. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 753 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions should continue through the next 24 hours. There is an outside chance of some patchy fog late tonight/early Wednesday morning, but confidence is too low to mention fog in the TAFs at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 206 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Strong ridging over the area will keep our winds out of an easterly direction through Saturday. Winds will be little higher today and tomorrow around 10 to 15 knots. These winds will calm down for Thursday through Saturday and sit around 5 to 10 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 65 86 65 86 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 63 87 63 88 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 61 87 62 88 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 63 85 63 85 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 56 88 56 88 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 70 87 70 86 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION...Fleming PREVIOUS MARINE...Shiveley  969 FXUS61 KILN 142353 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 753 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... - Delayed any cold frontal passage until the weekend, with episodic precipitation chances until then. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this evening, primarily across west-central Ohio. 2) Well above normal temperatures are expected through the rest of the week. Shower and thunderstorm chances continue. 3) Strong cold front moves through this weekend, bringing cooler temperatures Sunday and Monday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1) Storms have matured into a rather impressive cluster in west central Ohio. It should weaken heading towards central Ohio, but it may take a bit to wind down. KEY MESSAGE 2) Will need to continue to watch for storms moving across the northern edge of the mid-level ridge on Wednesday. Similar to today, our hazardous weather threats depend on mesoscale evolution as disturbances shift east across our northern counties. May need to include an HWO mention of a severe storm or two and locally heavy rain. A more significant shortwave moves through the CWA Thursday afternoon and evening. This leads to an increase in PoPs. SPC has a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms with this disturbance. While low-level flow will be rather light, mid-level winds will bring 30-40 knots of shear will provide the chance of a damaging wind gust. KEY MESSAGE 3) Anomalous warmth will end as a strong cold front shifts east through the middle Ohio Valley late Saturday. CAA and gusty westerly winds are likely Sunday with low temperatures dipping into the 30s Sunday night as the surface high moves into our area. If these trends continue, frost may become a concern this night. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Showers and thunderstorms moving across Ohio to start the period will affect KDAY, but it still is a bit uncertain whether that will hold together and impact the Columbus terminals. After this passes, there is uncertainty whether or when additional storms may move into the region during the TAF period. There could be a weakening complex of showers and storms moving into northern Ohio before 12Z, but confidence in that occurring, let alone getting far enough south to affect any of the terminals, is too low to include in the TAFs at this point. Greater chance of storms will be late in the period. Low level wind shear will occur across the region between 04Z and 11Z. Surface winds will gust over 20 kt once again after 15Z. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible at times through Thursday, then again Saturday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION... AVIATION...  602 FXUS65 KTFX 142354 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 554 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Aviation Section Updated. .KEY MESSAGES... - It will be windy this afternoon along the Northern Rocky Mountain Front. - It will be windy in Southwestern Montana on Wednesday. - Widespread precipitation returns Wednesday evening through Friday morning with colder temperatures on Thursday and Friday. && .DISCUSSION... /Issued 241 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026/ - Meteorological Overview: This afternoon there will be upper-level zonal flow over North- central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will keep warm weather over the area. Due to a strong surface pressure gradient this afternoon it will be windy along the Northern Rocky Mountain Front and plains west of I-15. This evening due to an upper-level shortwave there will be snow along the Northern Rocky Mountain Front. On Wednesday there is an upper-level ridge ahead of an approaching upper-level trough over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This combined with the southerly winds aloft will bring warm temperatures to the area with windy conditions in the valleys of Southwestern Montana. Due to the warm temperatures and southerly flow aloft instability will increase and isolated locations could see a rumble of thunder Wednesday afternoon. See the Forecast Confidence & Scenarios Section for details. On Wednesday snow will continue along the Northern Rocky Mountain Front. Wednesday afternoon/evening a Pacific Front will move across North- central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will bring a heavy band of snow along the I-90 Corridor late Wednesday afternoon through early Wednesday evening. Wednesday afternoon and early evening across North-central and Central Montana initially there will be rain showers before transitioning to snow showers Wednesday night. On Thursday an upper-level trough is over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This combined with the cold front will bring well-below seasonal averages for temperatures on Thursday. During the day on Thursday there will be snow showers across North- central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. On Friday the upper- level trough remains over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. On Friday due to the upper-level trough it will be cold in the morning with temperatures warming up some in the afternoon with mostly dry weather. On Saturday and Sunday an upper-level ridge moves over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will bring warm and dry weather to the area for the weekend. -IG - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: Across southwestern Montana there is greater than an 80% chance for snowfall rates in excess of 1 inch per hour Wednesday evening. Along the I-90 corridor Wednesday afternoon/early evening there is greater than a 50% chance for surface instability combined with a tenth of an inch of snowfall accumulation (i.e. a snow squall). The greatest risk from any snow squall will be a sudden reduction in visibility. On Wednesday south of the Montana Highway 200 Corridor there is a 15 - 30% chance for thunder. From Wednesday tonight through Friday morning there is greater than a 90% chance for 9 inches of snow or greater across the Madison and Gallatin Mountains. As a result a Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for those areas from Wednesday evening through Friday morning. From tonight through Thursday morning there is greater than a 50% chance for 6 inches of snow or greater along the Northern Rocky Mountain Front. As a result a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the Northern Rocky Mountain Front from midnight tonight through Thursday morning. Across the valleys of Southwestern Montana from Wednesday evening through Thursday evening there is a greater than a 50% chance for 2 inches of snow or greater. Across the lower- elevations of North-central and Central Montana from Wednesday evening through Thursday evening there is greater than a 35% chance for 1 inch of snow or greater. Wednesday evening through Thursday evening across the Little Belts, Highwoods, and Southern Rocky Mountain Front there is greater than a 75% chance for 4 inches of snow or greater. On Wednesday there is a 30 - 60% chance for wind gusts of 55 mph or greater across the valleys of Southwestern Montana. As a result across the Madison and the Beaverhead River Valleys a High Wind Watch remains in effect during the day on Wednesday. Friday morning there is greater than a 50% chance for a low temperatures of 15 degrees or colder along the Hi-Line. -IG && .AVIATION... 15/00Z TAF Period Winds decrease some this evening, but will remain locally gusty along the Rocky Mountain Front and the plains during the overnight hours. There will also be some instances of mountain wave turbulence and low level wind shear, mostly for locations immediately east of the Rocky Mountain Front. An approaching Pacific trough will bring increasing cloud cover and mountain obscuration tonight into Wednesday, particularly along the Continental Divide and over the higher terrain adjacent to the ID/WY borders. General VFR conditions will prevail at the terminals except for the KWYS. Gusty south to southwesterly winds return on Wednesday, strongest in the Madison Valley (KEKS). - RCG && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 41 59 27 37 / 0 40 90 60 CTB 34 54 20 31 / 10 20 60 50 HLN 38 58 27 39 / 10 80 90 80 BZN 36 59 27 38 / 10 60 100 80 WYS 28 45 26 33 / 10 90 100 100 DLN 36 57 26 36 / 0 50 100 80 HVR 39 61 25 35 / 0 20 80 50 LWT 37 58 26 35 / 10 60 90 60 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Thursday for East Glacier Park Region. Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday evening through late Thursday night for Gallatin and Madison County Mountains and Centennial Mountains. High Wind Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon for Beaverhead and Western Madison below 6000ft- Madison River Valley. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls  714 FXUS61 KCAR 142355 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 755 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... - Minor changes made to thunder and PoPs based on the latest trends in observations and radar - Aviation discussion updated && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Rain is expected this evening. This combined with above normal temperatures through Wednesday will continue to erode any remaining ice on northern rivers. 2) Warming temperatures through the end of the week, along with rainfall, will continue melting the remaining snow and ice in norther Maine. 3) Slight chance for some thunderstorms Downeast Thursday evening into Friday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Rain is expected this evening. This combined with above normal temperatures through Wednesday will continue to erode any remaining ice on northern rivers. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...A brief period of rain is expected early this evening before ending later this evening. Rainfall through tonight is expected to range from one quarter to around a half inch. A stray clap of thunder is not totally out of the question, especially along the coast. Continued unseasonably warm temperatures combined with any rainfall will continue to erode any remaining ice in the St John river basin in far northern Maine. KEY MESSAGE 2...Warming temperatures through the end of the week, along with rainfall, will continue melting the remaining snow and ice in norther Maine. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...Temperatures above normal throughout the rest of the week. generally with daytime highs in the 50s throughout northern and eastern Maine. Overnight lows generally in the 40s, and creep back into the mid-to-upper 30s by the end of the week. This extended period of warming temperatures, along with some potential rain Thursday night, will continue eroding snow/ice, and northern Maine river ice. KEY MESSAGE 3...Very slight chance for some thunderstorms Downeast Thursday evening into Friday. KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... Shortwave and low pressure system moves through late Thursday into Friday morning. Moisture advection, alongside weak frontal passage, with decent lapse rates and shear, work in favor of some minor thunderstorms developing. That being said, there is a deep inversion a few hundred feet above the surface, that would cap any storm development in the region. Decided to keep a slight chance for storms in the forecast, but temperatures would need to warm up for chance of a rumble of thunder. The chance of thunder is under 15 percent. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Tonight...VFR early this evening, then MVFR/IFR, rain this evening. Patchy fog later tonight, most likely at southern airports. Light E to SE wind. Wednesday...MVFR, Scattered showers. E to SE wind 5 to 10 kt. Wednesday Night...IFR with showers and patchy fog. Light SE wind. Thursday...MVFR/IFR with rain showers. Winds from the SE around 5 kt. Thursday night...MVFR/IFR, with rain and with a chance of patchy fog. SE wind around 5 kt shifting to the NE by daybreak. Friday...MVFR/IFR in rain showers. NW/N winds around 5kts. Friday night...MVFR as rain showers start to weaken. Winds from the N, shifting to the NE, at 5kts. Saturday...Generally VFR. E, shifting to SE, winds at 5 - 10 kts. && .MARINE... Winds/seas will remain below SCA levels through Wednesday night. Conditions below Small Craft criteria through the end of the week. Rain showers Thursday into Friday. Patchy fog Thursday night. Seas generally 3ft and below Thursday into Friday. Winds from the E on Thursday, shifting to the SE Thursday evening, then shifting NE by Friday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ASB/TWD AVIATION...ASB/TWD/MWS  197 FXUS65 KCYS 142355 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 555 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered showers and the occasional thunderstorm are possible this afternoon. Main concern with any storms that form will be gusty winds. Severe weather not expected. - A High Wind Watch has been issued for the typical wind prone locations of southeast Wyoming from 6 AM through 3 PM Wednesday. - A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for most locations east of the Laramie Range from noon to 8 PM on Thursday. - A potent weather disturbance will produce windy, colder, and wetter weather for Thursday night and Friday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 1255 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Another round of showers and storms is possible this afternoon as current GOES-18 Satellite Imagery shows a low spinning over the Colorado/Utah border, near Grand Junction. Low-level and mid-level clouds are spewing out ahead of the low and starting to cover much of southeast Wyoming in clouds. Current radar suggests a few isolated to scattered showers mainly west of the Laramie Range at this time. Showers will become more widespread throughout the afternoon and evening hours as the low continues to traverse slowly to the east. A decent cumulus field has started to develop across the western Nebraska Panhandle where mid- and upper-level clouds have briefly cleared earlier this morning. Upper-level water vapor imagery shows the upper-level trough positioned across much of the Intermountain West with a distinct, positive tilt to the trough itself. As this upper-level trough continues its eastward progression today, the CWA will main under the right entrance region of the upper-level jet, suggesting continued synoptic lift across the region and increasing precipitation chances. Warm air advection is weakly in place overhead at the 700mb level, but not overly impressive for stronger storms this afternoon. HIRES model guidance suggest isolated pockets of MUCAPE up to about 500 J/kg for areas east of the Laramie Range, with MLCAPE lower and more capped. Given some instability in the area, an isolated thunderstorm or two cannot be completely ruled out, especially as temperatures across the Panhandle increase into the mid-60s. However, forecast RAP soundings suggest a stout inverted-V signature, suggesting a higher potential for gusty winds with and showers and storms that form this afternoon. Therefore, severe weather is not expected, but isolated thunderstorms with some lightning are expected, especially across the western Nebraska Panhandle where warmer temperatures are located. Precipitation chances slowly come to an end overnight, with Sidney potentially seeing showers through the early morning hours before the trough departs the region and subsidence returns in its wake. Wednesday will be a transition day across the region as precipitation chances end and a brief ridge develops ahead of the next incoming system for Thursday into the long term forecast. The 700mb flow suggests that while a transition period is expected, it will potentially be filled with strong to near-high wind criteria winds in the typical wind prone areas of southeast Wyoming and gusty conditions elsewhere. At 700mb, as the initial system starts to deepen, height gradients increase across western portions of the CWA through the early to late morning hours. Then, increasing gradients are expected in the mid- to late-afternoon hours as the next 700mb trough begins to deepen across central Montana. As this system deepens, a 50 to 55kt 700mb jet kicks up across the Laramie Range with GFS Omega values suggesting modest to strong subsidence across the Laramie Range and near the Arlington/Elk Mountain area. As a result, a lower-confidence High Wind Watch has been issued for the typical wind prone areas of southeast Wyoming from 6 AM to 3 PM Wednesday, with gusts up to 60mph possible. While some parameters, namely the Craig to Casper gradients, are not super onboard with high winds, enough evidence exists to suggest the need the for a Watch. Luckily, with strong subsident flow, highs in the mid-50s to low-70s are expected Thursday with clearing skies behind the departing trough. Precipitation is not expected for most areas. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 1255 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Our ridge starts to become flattened and pushed off to the east Thursday. A cold low pressure system will start to push into the Intermountain west as it dives southeast from the Saskatchewan/Albertan Providences bringing a colder airmass with it. A cold front will start push through the Southeast Wyoming area late afternoon to early evening. Models show it being a pretty stout front with temps in the 50's in front and 30's behind it. However, due to the timing of the front a fire weather watch was issued for Goshen, Platte, Laramie, and the Nebraska Panhandle counties as RH values look likely to drop between 10 and 15 percent for the afternoon coupled with the breezy winds between 20 to 25 mph. Converse and Niobrara weren't included because there is uncertainty with how low the RH will drop before the cold front pushes through raising the humidity above possible threshold values. There will be some showers associated with this front as well. Looking at the model soundings the mid-levels will saturate first and produce virga at first. But the virga should reach the ground into the overnight period and likely come down as snow as we saturate the lower levels and below freezing. 700mb temperatures look to drop to about -13C making it for a colder Wyoming Friday with temps in the 30's while the Panhandle looks to be in the low 40's. The snow showers will continue into Friday as the pressure system start to makes its way into the Northern Plains. Friday night will be the peak of the cold airmass as overnight temperatures drop into the teens and twenties. Another ridge will also start to push into the Intermountain west late Friday afternoon keeping us in Northwesterly flow filtering in that colder air from the North and tightening our pressure gradient creating a cold breezy wind as well. Total accumulations from the Thursday/Friday system looks to be around 3-4 inches in areas west of the I-25 corridor, 2-3 inches along the I-25 corridor, and about 1-2 inches east of the corridor. For the Nebraska Panhandle it looks to be roughly 0.5 to 1 inch of snow with some 1-2 inch areas closer to the WY/NE border. By Saturday morning the system should be far enough east to stop snowing while the ridge moves further east as well. The airmass over the intermountain west will gradually warm up but the Saturday temps will still be in the 40's and 50's. Sunday, warm temps in the 60/70's east of I-25 return with mostly clear skies in the afternoon. This warmer ridge is currently expected to last until Tuesday morning before another shortwave could possibly hit the Intermountain West again. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 555 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Poorly organized upper level disturbance will push east into the Colorado High Plains late this evening, with improving conditions expected from west to east over southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska. Some patchy fog is possible tonight in places that received rain/snow earlier. HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: Rain and snow over the area will end over the next 4 hours. VFR conditions will prevail with brief MVFR conditions in the heavier showers until 04z, mainly for KAIA and KSNY. Some patchy fog is possible tonight with lingering low level moisture. KRWL, KLAR, and KSNY are the most likely terminals to see IFR conditions and fog, but confidence is less than 10 percent at this time. Added VCFG into KLAR for now and will continue to monitor. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for WYZ430>433. High Wind Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon for WYZ106-110-116-117. NE...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for NEZ434>437. && $$ SHORT TERM...AM LONG TERM...MM AVIATION...TJT  921 FXUS65 KPIH 142356 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 556 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Winter Weather Advisories start late tonight in the central Idaho mountains, Wednesday afternoon in the eastern and southeastern highlands. - Wind Advisories in the Arco Desert-Mud Lake region and Beaverhead-Lemhi highlands. - Snow Wednesday night and Thursday morning down to Snake River plain elevations. - Well below freezing temperatures Thursday and Friday nights. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1250 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Tonight through Fri will be payback for the mild winter eastern Idaho had experienced for the most part. Incoming low with a vigorous cold front will bring moderate to heavy snow in the high elevations, and lighter snow below about 6500ft elevation. Based on current temperature expectations, the snow above 7000ft elevation in the central Idaho mountains will be moderate to heavy up to 8500ft elevation. Lighter snow below that. Most affected zones are in the southern end, where the southwest flow has its best precipitation production. Elsewhere, moderate to heavy accumulations above 6500ft elevation should occur in the Island Park region in the northeast corner, and in the Bear River Range down at the Utah border. Elsewhere, expect light to moderate snowfall. Wed night and Thu morning will also bring some light snow to the Snake River plain/eastern Magic Valley, but it should stay below 2 inches and melt at least partially on Thu afternoon and completely by Fri afternoon. Temperatures will remain mild with the increase in cloud cover tonight and the southerly air flow, but a strong cool down is expected in highs and lows, with winter like overnight lows in the single digits and teens, and lower to middle 20s in the Snake River plain/eastern Magic Valley for Thu night. Finally, this storm and its surface cold front will bring strong wind that will produce windy to very windy conditions Wed afternoon and evening in the Arco Desert and Mud Lake region. It will extend northward into the Lemhi highlands for a portion of that time as well. On Thu, the high wind will shift southward as the wind shifts to northwesterly and so there will be better alignment in the eastern Magic Valley and lower Snake River plain. At least windy conditions (20 to 30 mph with gusts staying below 45 mph) should redevelop on Fri afternoon in these lower elevations. Fri night through next Tue afternoon...A transient upper level ridge moves in at the beginning of this period, allowing strong warming on Sat and Sun. There is a 60-40 split on if this ridge will break down on Sun night, with 60 percent of the clusters saying no. But by Mon afternoon the trough should pass through, bringing more rain and overnight high elevation snow that lasts to the end of the forecast week. Overnight lows appear to say 5 to 10 deg F below normal for the time of year through Sun night, so it will be no time to plant your garden. The shift to southwest flow and the return of cloud cover warms up overnight lows on Mon night. And despite the cloud cover, temperatures in the southerly air flow continue to warm for Mon and Tue. Afternoon wind continues breezy to windy during the afternoons, with Sat being the lightest. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 545 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Will have VFR conditions overnight tonight with winds diminishing to 10 knots or less after 03Z. Impacts Wednesday will be winds around 20 knots at PIH and IDA after 18Z with gusts up to 30 knots. Have rain showers after 14Z at SUN and after 18Z at DIJ. Just have VCSH at the other three locations. Winds will also increase at DIJ and BYI to 10 to 15 knots and gusts 20 to 25 knots after 19Z as well. Dropped ceilings to 3 thousand feet at DIJ after 18Z and 3500 to 6 thousand feet at the other sites. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for IDZ052-067. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Wednesday to 6 AM MDT Friday for IDZ060-066. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon MDT Thursday for IDZ071>074. && $$ DISCUSSION...Messick AVIATION...GK  722 FXUS66 KLOX 142356 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 456 PM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION .SYNOPSIS...14/125 PM. Dry and warmer weather is expected for the remainder of this week. Gusty northerly winds will develop over much of the area on Thursday, shifting to northeast and becoming focused over Los Angeles and Ventura Counties on Friday. The next chance of rain will be next Monday. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...14/200 PM. Some gusty Sundowner winds expected across southwest Santa Barbara County this evening and a wind advisory is in effect there. Otherwise, just clear with cool temperatures overnight with lows mostly in the 40s, except 50s along the LA Coast. Another quiet day of weather on tap Wednesday with heights slowly rising following the departure of the recent storm. Daytime temperatures will increase 1-3 degrees but otherwise not much change from today. An upper low will take an inside track through the Great Basin Wednesday night into Thursday. Initially this will create gusty north to northeast winds through the mountains early Thursday morning. Will likely need some wind advisories for those. And some winds will filter down into the Santa Clarita Valley and northern portion of the San Fernando Valley as well as the Antelope Valley. That inside slider system will move into Utah Friday setting up a Santa Ana wind event across LA/Ventura Counties. Deterministic gradients are on the lower side, mostly under 4mb offshore, however many of the ensembles are as much as twice that and the NAM is showing 50kt of northeast wind at 850mb. And the lower res Euro ensemble is indicating 30-50mph winds across the typical Santa Ana wind areas. Expecting to see the deterministic solutions to nudge towards the stronger ensembles over the next day or two. So Friday should be a warm and dry day with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s and gusty Santa Ana winds across portions of LA/Ventura Counties. .LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...14/223 PM. Friday's Santa Ana is expected to mainly be a one day event, though offshore flow will linger into Saturday. Upper support will be mostly gone as well so any left over offshore winds will be isolated and of minimal impact. Temperatures will still be climbing Saturday, with some warmer valleys reaching the upper 80s intermediate areas like Downtown LA in the low to mid 80s. Most coastal areas will be in the upper 60s and 70s. On Sunday offshore flow will be turning onshore as another cold and at least partially cut off upper low approaches northern California. Still another warm day inland with highs in the 80s but cooler near the coast with an earlier sea breeze arrival. This is going to be a tricky system to forecast as models are struggling to figure out how far south it will move and at what speed. There is still a chance of rain Monday, though it could slip to as late as Tuesday or Wednesday, or miss the area all together. Cooler temperatures are expected through the first half of next week, though the rate of cooling will depend on the movement of the upper low. && .AVIATION...14/2354Z. At 2314Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion. High confidence in VFR conditions for all sites through this evening. Late tonight through mid-morning (Low confidence): Chance for IFR CIGs: KLAX (50%) , KLGB (50%) , KSMO (30%). 20% chance for high-end LIFR conditions. Chance for V/LIFR conditions: KSMX (50%), KPRB (20%). IF CIGs materialize, timing should be accurate within +/- 3 hours from current forecast. KLAX...Overall, moderate confidence in TAF. Through this evening, high confidence in CAVU conditions. For late tonight, there is a 50% chance that CIG/VSBY restrictions do not develop. 20% chance for LIFR CIGs (004). No significant easterly wind component is expected. KBUR...High confidence in VFR TAF. No wind issues are expected. && .MARINE...14/112 PM. For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Friday, high confidence in a combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas. On Thursday and Thursday night, there is a 40-50% chance of GALE force winds, mainly south of Point Conception. For Saturday through Sunday, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds. For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Thursday, high confidence in SCA level winds during the afternoon and evening hours. For Friday through Sunday, there is a 20-30% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours. For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Thursday night, high confidence in SCA level winds for the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel with winds and seas remaining below SCA levels elsewhere. On Friday, there is a 50-70% chance of SCA level northeast winds from Ventura south to Santa Monica and across the San Pedro Channel. For Saturday through Sunday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels for all areas. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT Wednesday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...MW AVIATION...Black MARINE...RAT SYNOPSIS...MW weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox  164 FXUS63 KGRR 142356 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 756 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Risk for Severe Thunderstorms and Flooding Tonight - Continued Thunderstorms Chances Wednesday - Active Stretch of Weather Continues into Weekend && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 250 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Risk for Severe Thunderstorms and Flooding Tonight Severe thunderstorms with the risk of damaging winds, large hail, tornadoes, and heavy rain expected largely between 7PM tonight to 4AM early Wednesday. Significant clearing has occurred across the area allowing for instability to build this afternoon. HREF is highlighting around 2000 J/kg of surface based cape largely along and south of I-96 with similar MUCAPE values extending further north. Upper level divergence will be in play along with low level jet convergence as it moves in between 7PM-10PM this evening. It is in this window we expect storms to develop. Effective shear of around 40-50 knots will aid in storms becoming more organized with 0-1km storm relative helicity values of 200 m2/s2 largely along and south of I-96 and mid level lapse rates around 7-8 C/km. With this setup all hazards are in play. The highest risk for tornadoes will be along and south of I-96 due the greater storm relative helicity values and surface based CAPE. Storms may begin isolated before congealing into a line that moves southeastward through the state. Quick spin-up tornadoes and damaging winds will be possible with the line. Corfidi vectors may aid in some backbuilding behind storms this evening which would increase the flooding potential. HREF highlights local probability matched mean amounts of 2 to 4 inches in portions of western, central, and southern Michigan. With these signals the flood watch has been extended to the entire area. - Continued Thunderstorms and Flooding Chances Wednesday Conditional risk for severe thunderstorms Wednesday late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. The low level jet should help sustain rain and thunderstorms into Wednesday morning, especially for areas along and south of I-94. The threat for severe thunderstorms later Wednesday will be directly tied to if we are able to recover from the morning convection. If we aren't able to recover enough, garden variety thunderstorms with heavy rain are expected. If we are able to recover, damaging winds and tornadoes will be possible. Mean HREF values currently have surface based CAPE values improve to around 500 to 1000 J/kg. Meanwhile minimum surface based CAPE values are 500 less than 500 J/kg and maximum values are 2000 J/kg or greater along and south of I-96. This large spread points to the large uncertainty with how tomorrow will play out. However, with any rainfall, the flooding risk will continue due to the already saturated conditions from the previous rounds of rainfall. Check the HYDROLOGY section for more information. - Active Stretch of Weather Continues into Weekend An upper level low moves through the region Thursday, continuing rain and thunderstorm chances into Thursday evening. Pressure heights increase Thursday night into Friday, giving the area a brief break in the rainfall. However, southwest flow returns ahead of a deep trough, bringing rain and thunderstorm chances back to the area Friday night into Saturday. There is a potential for severe thunderstorms as well, which is outlined in the SPC day 5 outlook. Colder air moves in behind the low Saturday with lows Saturday night into Sunday dropping into the 30s. This could result in some snow mixing in on the backside. Highs Sunday are only expected to be in the 40s, and with breezy west to northwest winds, this will probably keep wind chills in the upper 20s to 30s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 756 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Clusters of thunderstorms are beginning to move over western Lake Michigan at the beginning of this TAF period. Based on storm motion, the likely time of arrival at the MKG site will be between 0130z-0200z. Thunderstorm wind gusts in excess of 40 kts are likely with this activity, and depending on storm strength it is possible that 50 kt gusts or greater could occur at MKG and GRR with this intial activity. Clusters of storms will likely congeal into a line that will likely sweep across all terminals in the 02z-06z time frame. Periodic wind shear of around 40-50 kts at 2000 ft is possible especially early in the period. A more prolonged rain event could set up especially from AZO to BTL and JXN after the initial line of storms moves through (post 05z-06z) and trends will need to be monitored for potentially a few hours of rain with embedded TSRA. && .MARINE... Issued at 250 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Wave heights will continue to fall below Small Craft Advisory conditions this afternoon, therefore the Advisory has been cancelled. Dense fog is slowly clearing as well. Will keep the dense fog advisory for now, but it could be cancelled early if conditions continue to improve. Thunderstorms are expected tonight with the potential for damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes. Higher waves will also be possible with any thunderstorm. Thunderstorms will gradually taper off in the southern zones Wednesday morning, but there is a chance they could linger through the day. Otherwise thunderstorm chances return late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 250 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Bottom line: The most significant flood in recent years is likely upcoming on the Muskegon River, with several locations expected to pass Major flood stage. Another 1-2 inches of rain fell last night, primarily in upper/headwaters portions of the Muskegon River Watershed. This joins the previous 2-5 inches of rain in the area that is all finding its way toward the river. A significant and impactful flood on the Muskegon River will be developing over the next few days, with a crest expected in the Friday timeframe. Meanwhile, additional rounds of heavy rain are expected to shift south a bit starting today, with the Grand River basin the more likely to be impacted. With 1-2" across a large area, and locally 3"+ bullseyes expected, we are expecting some localized flooding to develop overnight tonight, especially if the thunderstorms track over urban areas repeatedly. This will also eventually get the Grand River water levels increasing again over the next few days. Currently, this looks like we'll largely repeat the minor flooding (on the Grand River and tributaries) that occurred in the last few weeks. Further south, the Kalamazoo River has been a bit drier lately, so no flooding is expected to develop there, though urban and poor-drainage area flooding will definitely be possible over the next day or two as the thunderstorms move through. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Flood Watch through late Thursday night for MIZ037>040-043>046- 050>052. Flood Watch through late Thursday night for MIZ056>059-064>067- 071>074. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RAH AVIATION...Hoving MARINE...RAH HYDROLOGY...AMD  896 FXUS64 KOHX 142356 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 656 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 654 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - There is an enhanced fire danger on Wednesday due to dry fuels, low RH values and gusty winds. - Expect unseasonal warmth to last through Saturday. - There are medium to high rain/storm chances Thursday and Thursday evening, and again this weekend. No severe weather is anticipated. && .UPDATE... Issued at 654 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 It's dry and quiet across the area. That will be the story again on Wednesday with elevated fire danger due to RH values dropping below 30%, gusty winds, and lower than normal fuel moisture. Temperatures on Wednesday will top out in the 80s. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 1029 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Middle Tennessee finds itself under the influence of an early- season Bermuda High pattern today, and this will continue through tomorrow. There will be an elevated fire danger on Wednesday owing to dry fuels, afternoon RH values bottoming out in the 30-35% range most areas, and gusty winds. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1029 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A quasi-stationary surface boundary currently is situated to our northwest, and this will eventually bring rain and storm chances to the region on Thursday and Thursday evening. We can expect some instability with this environment, especially over northwest portions of the mid state, but the risk of any severe storms is very low, and, unfortunately, QPF values don't bring much hope that our burgeoning drought conditions will abate. Indeed, the frontal boundary will dry out considerably as it comes through Middle Tennessee, and so expected rainfall totals taper off from northwest to southeast. A stronger cold front is poised to sweep across the region on Saturday and Saturday evening. Again, QPF values won't move the needle much regarding the drought. In fact, the pre-frontal air mass will be so dry that the bulk of the convection that develops from this system will be post-frontal, so that will definitely limit the severe potential. However, temperatures behind the fropa will be considerably cooler, and that will be primary impact from our weekend cold front. Low temperatures Sunday night/Monday morning will range primarily from the upper 30s to low 40s; a few of our higher elevation spots may even wake up to a light frost. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 606 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions persist this taf cycle. Clouds are thinning out with the lowest cigs around 5 kft. Southerly winds will relax below 10 kts overnight, becoming southwesterly and breezy after 15Z. Gusts between 15-25 kts can be expected through Wednesday afternoon with passing mid to high level clouds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 64 86 65 83 / 0 0 0 60 Clarksville 67 86 66 83 / 0 0 10 80 Crossville 57 82 60 81 / 0 0 0 30 Columbia 62 85 63 84 / 0 0 0 50 Cookeville 60 83 62 80 / 0 0 0 40 Jamestown 59 83 60 81 / 0 0 0 40 Lawrenceburg 61 84 63 83 / 0 0 0 40 Murfreesboro 62 86 63 84 / 0 0 0 50 Waverly 66 86 67 83 / 0 0 10 70 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......Reagan SHORT TERM...Rose LONG TERM....Rose AVIATION.....Baggett