095 FXUS61 KBGM 150005 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 805 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Precipitation for this evening has been updated to reflect the current showers and storms moving through the Twin Tiers.&& .KEY MESSAGES... 1) There remains a threat for strong to severe thunderstorms this evening and again tomorrow afternoon and evening, with strong wind gusts, isolated hail and locally heavy rainfall. 2) The warm pattern through the week will break down late in the weekend. Much colder air arrives Sunday evening into early next week, with a chance for mixed snow and rain showers. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... The next couple of days will be warm and humid for this time of the year with 30+ knots of shear so there will be chances for some strong to isolated severe thunderstorms today and tomorrow. The synoptic forcing today is very week with just a subtle 500 mb shortwave passing through so that likely will not be the main driver of the convection but will help supply the shear (35-45 knots) and steeper mid level lapse rates of around 7 C/km are moving into the area from the west late this afternoon. Instability is beginning to build as surface temperatures rise into the mid-70s to lower 80s and surface dew points hover in the mid to upper 50s. Surface based CAPE early this afternoon is already reaching 500-1000 J/kg, but 100mb mixed layer CAPE is much lower thus far only 250 to 500 J/kg. Bulk 0- 6km shear is increasing, as expected, now between 35-45 kts, with effective layer shear in that same range. Latest visible satellite loop shower some cumulus build up beginning to occur, along with broken mid to high cloud layer over the region. There is a weak shortwave pushing into western NY at this time, that will likely be the main trigger for scattered thunderstorms to develop late this afternoon and evening. SPC maintains the Slight Risk over the eastern half of the forecast area, where the main threat will continue to be isolated severe storms that could produce damaging winds. SPC has also introduced a 2% chance for an isolated tornado or large hail up across Oneida County along a weak warm frontal feature. The main timeframe for storm potential looks to be from about 4-8 PM across our Central NY areas...and a little later, from about 6-10 PM in NE PA...this is based off the latest CAMs such as the 17z HRRR run. Overnight it should quiet down, under partly cloudy skies and very mild temperatures in the mid-50s to lower 60s. Late at night into early Wednesday morning a remnant MCS looks to approach bringing renewed chances for showers and embedded thunderstorms. Wednesday is unfortunately a similar story as today in regards to how the storms may evolve. The synoptic forcing is once again weak with the primary driver of the mid level shortwave is going to be the development of MCS's in the plains this afternoon and overnight. Still, models are in better agreement that there will be more CAPE tomorrow (>1000J/kg of surface cape) and better shear (>40 knots of 0-6 km shear) so if the timing of the mid level wave that triggers the storms is like the current model guidance is showing (in the late afternoon to evening), strong to severe thunderstorms are likely and isolated supercells are possible. SPC maintains a Marginal risk across most of Central NY and NE PA for this potential, with a Slight Risk nearby in Central PA. The main potential threats with Wednesday's Storms will be isolated damaging winds,large hail and training of heavy downpours. WPC has introduced a Marginal Risk for excessive rain, and isolated flash flooding across most of the forecast area Wednesday into Wednesday night. We will still be in this warm SW flow pattern with frequent shortwaves on Thursday. Models are showing scattered showers in the morning, but better forcing arrives late in the day along an incoming cold front. There is uncertainty in the amount of CAPE that ultimately materializes, but with temperatures back in the mid-70s to low 80s and dew points in the low 60s instability could again reach moderate levels (1000 J/kg +). This time period will need to be watched closely as 0-6km shear remains elevated between 40-50 kts once again over the region. The highest parameters look to be across the Twin Tiers down into Northeast PA at this time, so this may be the area to watch for more organized and stronger convection. After the cold front pushes through Thursday night into Friday morning there will be some lingering showers and a chance for a few thunderstorms through the day on Friday. However, overall instability and shear are forecast to be much lower on Friday. Temperatures will also come down some, with highs in the mid-60s to mid-70s expected. KEY MESSAGE 2... While this warm, early summer like pattern persist through the first half of the weekend, Sunday into early next week has continued to trend cooler. High latitude blocking in Greenland will help a deep late season trough to dig into the Northeast US. The GFS and AIGFS both are bringing 516 to 520 dm 500 mb heights on Monday which is well below climatology for mid to late April. 850 mb temperatures also have a high probability of reaching -12C Monday morning and only gradually moderating back toward 0C by Tuesday. With the Great Lakes likely warming up some over the rest of this week, it is possible they would be warm enough to generate lake effect snow shower activity with this pattern, as temperature differentials exceed 15C from the lake surface up to the 850mb level. With the anomalously cold air mass in place it appears daytime highs may stay in the 30s to low 40s on Monday. Very cold overnight lows in the 20s are then expected Monday night into Tuesday morning. It then appears a gradual moderating trend will take hold Tuesday into the middle of next week. As of now, the pattern with the cold is looking dry (outside of lake effect) so despite the cold, a widespread snow event is unlikely at this time. There is still time for the pattern to change as the evolution of the Greenland blocking pattern is all over the place but a cooler stretch of weather is likely, just how cold will it get is uncertain. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A line of shower and storms are currently moving through NEPA and the Catskills and should be out of the area in the next couple of hours. Looks like we should get some IFR restrictions to return to RME tonight. SYR and ITH have some signals for IFR, but confidence is not high enough to include IFR at this time and went with MVFR. Another round of showers and isolated storms looks to push through the area in the morning. Chances for storms look to be the best for ELM/ITH/BGM with SYR showing some chances but morning fog and clouds may hinder storms making it that far north. There will be a lull in activity from late morning to mid afternoon before another round of showers and storms is expected to develop. Best chances for storms will be at ELM/ITH/BGM where conditions look more favorable. IFR visby will be possible with these storms but with location and timing still very uncertain, did not include them in the TAFs. SYR and RME look to quickly get on the cool side of the boundary these storms will fire on and have rain and MVFR ceilings. AVP may see storms as well, but those would be after this TAF period. Outlook: Wednesday evening through Friday...Restrictions possible from showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Saturday...Additional restrictions look to arrive along with showers and storms late in the day Saturday. Sunday... Restrictions possible from showers. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AJG/JTC/MJM AVIATION...JTC  521 FXUS63 KDTX 150005 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 805 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Stretch of warm conditions throughout the work week with daytime temperatures in the 70s each day for most locations. - Potential exists for thunderstorms to develop tonight, mainly between 8 pm and 3 am. Storms may become severe, capable of producing wind gusts to 60 mph, large hail and isolated tornadoes. - There is a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms Wednesday and still another round of storms possible Thursday. - Each episode of storms brings the possibility for locally heavy rainfall. A Flood Watch is in effect for all areas tonight through Thursday night. && .AVIATION... SCT to BKN clouds at 5kft or above start the TAF period with a S to SW wind at around 5 to 10 knots. Thunderstorms are underway to the west of Lake Michigan with come activity just starting to move over the south central portion of the lake. Thunderstorm activity is expected to develop into a linear system and push into Michigan tonight, mainly in the 03Z to 08Z window. MBS and FNT would be the first to see activity in that window given the expected southwest to northeast orientation. Confidence remains fairly high for a line of storms with relatively high coverage to maintain TSRA tempo groups tonight. Slight timing adjustments may still be needed as the line approaches or if anything develops ahead of the line. There looks to be a window by around mid to late morning for a period of dry weather develops. Shower and thunderstorm looks to redevelop to some degree tomorrow. DTW/D21 Convection... Fairly high likelihood for a line of thunderstorms to move across much of southeast Michigan affecting DTW between 04z and 09z tonight. Some uncertainty in intensity exists, but damaging wind gusts will be the biggest threat. .DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * High for ceilings aob 5000 ft tonight. Medium Wednesday morning. * Medium to high for thunderstorms tonight between 04z and 09z. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 312 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 DISCUSSION... Evening/Early Tonight Severe Storm Potential- Enhanced risk south of I-69, Slight Risk north of I-69: Remnant MCV over northern Indiana that generated a few light showers near the state border is pushing east of the region this afternoon and most importantly, its associated cloud shield is likewise peeling away. Increasing insolation supports destabilization through the late afternoon-early evening period with CAMs advertising a southwesterly gradient from Grand Rapids to Detroit where 1000-2000 J/kg of SBCAPE to develops along/south. Additionally stalled frontal boundary is lingering near the northern portions of the Saginaw Valley this evening. These two features are the first to watch before the arrival of then ongoing upstream convection from WI/IA late evening. For the southern CAPE gradient, the fairly weak cap looks to effectively erode between 00-02Z supporting isolated to perhaps scattered convective initiation over areas south of M-59. For the stalled Tri-Cities frontal boundary, its associated initiation depends on enough instability lifting that north which favors a window more 01-03Z. Discrete storms that do manage to fire in either region occur early enough to be fully surface based and be working with at least 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE (likely more for the southern storms) and very steep mid-level lapse rates between 7.5- 8C/km. Additionally wind profiles/hodographs show healthy curvature in the lowest 1-2kft leading to between 100-200 m2/s2 of SRH and 0- 1km bulk shear values nearing 25kts. All together, near-sunset environment is favorable for surface-based storms with all hazards in play, though exactly how much initiation actually occurs is unclear. While the above is (potentially) occuring, upstream convection undergoes upscale growth while crossing from WI into west MI feed by a 45-55kt southwesterly LLJ congealing into a line of storms (wind feed isn't particularly strong true MCS development). Line motion is favored to trend southerly given the CAPE gradient and southwesterly inflow. Worth noting there is a subset of CAMs like the 06Z HRDPS and 12Z ARW that favor more robust development along the southerly flank resulting in the main line push dropping southeast over northern IL/IN instead of SE MI. That said, current forecast remains with the main line dropping NW-SE across the local area late evening-early tonight, 03-07Z. Overnight arrival lends concern for the ability for the line to maintain itself both in strength and a surface layer root due to decreasing available nocturnal instability and only modest inflow winds. Should anything maintain a surface connection, damaging wind gusts and an isolated QLCS tornado would be the main hazards as low level winds maintain favorable curvature in advance of the line. Wednesday- Marginal Risk of Severe: Exactly how Wednesday morning plays out depends on the behavior of this evening's convection and where the line eventually peters out- either over far southern SE MI or over OH. The line pushing fully into OH keeps the first half of the morning drier. Regardless, the local area remains entrenched in this mild/moist airmass with continuing deep layer southwesterly flow. No strong forcing mechanism to speak of Wednesday with embedded PV anomalies instead lifting into the state and spurring clusters of showers and thunderstorms. Airmass is conducive for instability to rebound back near 1000 J/kg by afternoon with bulk shear remaining near 30-40kts offering a shot an isolated storm borderline severe storm. Damaging wind gusts are main hazard, hail threat is hampered by anemic mid- level lapse rates near or below 6C/km. Thursday- Marginal Risk south of M-59: Central Plains mid-level trough eventually lifts into the central Great Lakes providing stronger synoptic support for increasing shower coverage late Wednesday night-Thursday morning. Wave provides stronger wind profiles pushing shear values towards 40-45kts. Inhibiting factor for storms is overnight arrival of the wave with showers ongoing through the day reducing diurnal destabilization potential. Peak CAPE generally favored to hold in the 500-1000 J/kg range and focused towards the state border where 'best' chances for an isolated strong storm will reside. Shortwave eventually kicks east Thursday night tapering off lingering showers. Flooding Concerns- Flood Watch for all SE MI till Thursday night: Spring thus far has already been quite wet for much of the area with all 3 climate sites sitting above normal since March 1st: Saginaw +4.30", Flint +3.78", Detroit +0.88". In the past 10 days, all but the southern portions of Lenawee/Monroe have seen between 1.5-4.5", highest values north of M-59 where areal/river flooding occurred last week. Humid airmass maintains PWAT values around 1.3" tonight through the day Wednesday before nudging higher towards 1.5-1.6" Wednesday night-Thursday. With multiple additional rounds of showers and storms this evening through Thursday evening, QPF forecasts within that timeframe are between 1-3" though higher amounts around 4" are possible depending on thunderstorm coverage and tracks. Given the antecedent conditions with this forecast, a Flood Watch has been issued for all of SE MI through Thursday evening. Late Week: Mid-level ridging works across the central Great Lakes daytime Friday finally provides a reprieve from rainy weather. This however is shortlived as a broad mid-upper trough digs out of the northern Rockies into the upper Midwest/northern Great Lakes. Attendant surface low sends a respectable cold front through the local area Saturday-Saturday night. Additional showers and thunderstorms are likely in advance with afternoon arrival currently favored. Region is outlooked in a Day 5 15% risk due to the strong wind profile and modest diurnal destabilization potential. Much cooler air follows as 850mb temps fall from +14C Saturday to -8C by Sunday morning and eventually -10 Sunday night as the core of thermal troughing crosses. This results in overnight lows Sunday night below freezing in the upper 20s to around 30F. Given the warm stretch this week, growing season is likely to have started for most of the area which would warrant frost/freeze headlines. MARINE... Surface warm front has lifted back toward Saginaw Bay, with southwest flow to the south of the front and east flow for points north. Patchy fog persists over portions of Lake Huron north of the front, but overall dry weather is in place. The next round of thunderstorms is expected to develop over northern IL/WI late this afternoon and track east-southeast into the local waterways overnight as a line. Strong to severe storms are expected mainly after 04z (midnight local time), with potential for damaging wind gusts over 50 knots, large hail over 1 inch, and isolated waterspouts. This line of storms exits east around sunrise Wednesday, but unsettled conditions are expected to continue into the weekend. Each round of thunderstorm activity brings potential for localized erratic waves and gusty winds. Widespread headlines are not expected. HYDROLOGY... Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms start this evening and continue off-on through Thursday evening. Each episode brings the possibility for locally heavy rainfall, particularly where focused areas of thunderstorms develop, which offers flooding concerns given the already wet spring and saturated soils. Forecast rainfall totals from tonight to Thursday night range 1-3" across SE MI with potential for 4" dependent on coverage/track of thunderstorms each episode. A Flood Watch is in effect for the entirety of the region into late Thursday night as a result. Widespread flooding chances are tied if areas see repeated thunderstorms and carry low confidence in occurrence, however flooding of low-lying, poor drainage, and urban areas are likely as is creek and river flooding. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Flood Watch through late Thursday night for MIZ047>049-053>055- 060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ AVIATION.....AA DISCUSSION...KDK MARINE.......MV HYDROLOGY....KDK You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.  253 FXUS63 KJKL 150005 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 805 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures should average 15 or more degrees above normal through the end of the week. Record or near record high temperatures are forecast Wednesday, Friday, and Saturday. - Showers/storms are possible Thursday and Thursday night with a passing disturbance, with potentially greater chances this weekend with a cold front. && .UPDATE... Issued at 730 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2026 23Z sfc analysis shows high pressure in control of the weather over eastern Kentucky, though low pressure is near to the northwest. The pressure gradient is keeping the winds breezy for the northwest portion of the area but settling elsewhere. Skies are mostly clear with the storm chances staying well north of the Ohio River. Currently, temperatures are running in the mid to upper 70s. Meanwhile, amid southwest winds of 5 to 10 mph and higher gusts northwest, dewpoints are generally in the mid to upper 50s. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids but also to tamp down the PoPs through the night per the latest CAMs guidance. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the HWO, SAFs, and zones. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 410 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2026 As of mid afternoon, an upper level ridge was centered in the eastern Gulf and extended into the Southeast as well as into portions of the Atlantic. Meanwhile, southwest to west southwest flow aloft was in place across the OH Valley with a couple of disturbances passing within this flow. This southwest to west southwest flow was occurring between the ridging to the east and southeast of the Commonwealth and an upper trough entering portions of the Northern Plains to Central Rockies to Four Corners regions. At the surface, a frontal zone extends from New England to the Great Lakes to the Central Plains to CO. Meanwhile a sfc ridge of high pressure was centered in the Atlantic into the Southeast and north into the Southern Appalachians. A few showers were exiting Pike County and into WV and VA at this time associated with a disturbance in southwest flow. Some convective allowing models have had some redevelopment through early this evening in the north and east, though recent HRRR runs have backed off on that idea. At this point, opted to maintain slight chance pops roughly east of an Irvine to Hazard to Whitesburg line for the next few hours. Chances for any convection wane with the loss of daytime heating as mid level heights rise for late evening into a part of the overnight with neutral height tendencies to end the night. The sfc high will also remain in place tonight. As the night progresses and into the day on Wednesday, the upper ridge will remain from the Gulf into the Southeast to the coast of the Carolinas and VA while the mid and upper trough progresses into the Plains and Central Conus. This will leave eastern KY in the warm sector south of the frontal zone from the Northeast to the Great Lakes into the Central Conus with multiple waves moving along it. This mid and upper trough will continue to approach the region on Wednesday night as the axis of the mid and upper ridge shifts east. At the same time, sfc high pressure also remains in place into the Southeast and the Southern Appalachians. Clearing skies should occur during the evening into tonight, especially in regard to low and mid level clouds. This is favored by the pattern and 12Z HREF ensemble means. This should set the stage for a moderate ridge/valley split as sfc and upper ridging dominates. With afternoon dewpoints mainly in the mid to upper 50s, fog development appears more probable in the valleys than recent nights, especially if the forecast low to mid 50s low temperatures materialize. Any fog should lift and dissipate within a couple of hours after sunrise on Wednesday and give way to a milder day compared to today. The airmass should also be drier overall and min rh should trend down. Currently, forecast max temperatures of 86 at JKL and 85 at LOZ would tie records for the date. Another moderate magnitude ridge/valley temperature split follows for Wednesday night with sfc high pressure centered in the Atlantic, but extending into the Southeast and Southern Appalachians dominating. Low should again be in the low to mid 50s for valleys and low to mid mid 60s for ridges. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 249 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2026 The long term period opens Thursday with a shortwave over the Mid- Mississippi Valley and Upper Great Lakes. As this system lifts northeast throughout Thursday shower and thunderstorm chances increase heading into the late afternoon and early evening. Southwesterly winds and warm air advection allow for temperatures to warm into the 80s through the afternoon, some 10-15 degrees above normal. As showers taper off heading into Friday morning, temperatures cool into the low to mid 50s in valleys, and low 60s along ridge tops. A ridge of high pressure briefly builds over the area ahead of a deepening trough over the Rockies and Northern Plains. Relatively quiet weather is expected, with a mix of sun and clouds, and temperatures warming into the 80s. Because of the approaching system, clouds begin to increase overnight and through Saturday. Low temperatures Friday night cool into the 50s and low 60s. Saturday, the upper level trough will be over the Upper Great Lakes, with a warm front extending through the Great Lakes into the Mid- Atlantic, while a trailing cold front will extend through the Upper MidWest, the Mid and Lower Mississippi valleys, with showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of it. Shower and storm chances will increase over Eastern Kentucky from northwest to southeast through the afternoon into the evening and overnight hours. Showers and storms are then expected to taper off from northwest to southeast through Sunday. Temperatures Saturday, ahead of the cold front, will warm into mid to upper 80s for most, under southwesterly winds. At night, with winds becoming west to northwesterly, cold air advecting in behind the cold front will cool temperatures into the mid to upper 40s. Sunday, as remaining showers taper off, the cold front is modeled southeast of the area. Temperatures will be much cooler across the area, some 20-25 degrees cooler in fact, ranging in the low to mid 60s. Clouds should diminish through the afternoon as the trough begins to depart the area. However, Eastern Kentucky looks to be on the backside of the trough heading into Sunday night. With cold air still advecting in under light northwesterly winds and clearing skies, temperatures are expected to drop into the mid to upper 30s in the valleys and lower 40s elsewhere. High rises look to occur Monday, leading to mostly sunny skies, and highs in the low to mid 60s. Temperatures remain depressed under northwesterly winds. At night, temperatures cool into the upper 30s to near 40. Tuesday, a shortwave looks to skirt through the Upper Great Lakes and its main effects should remain north of the area. conditions will feature a mix of sun and clouds under southerly winds and seasonable temperatures warming into the low 70s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) ISSUED AT 805 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2026 VFR conditions prevailed at the 00Z TAF issuance and should hold through the period. The region will remain in the warm sector between a sfc ridge of high pressure extending from the Southeast to the western Atlantic and a frontal zone from New England across the Great Lakes and into the Plains. In between the sfc systems, south to southwest winds will average between 5 and 10 kts early before becoming light and variable. Low and mid level clouds decrease further this evening while winds should also diminish with the loss of daytime heating, though some LLWS from the southwest at up to 40 kts will be possible overnight. South to southwest winds should pick up again into the 5 to 12 kts range from around 14Z to the end of the period - once the nocturnal inversion mixes out. A few gusts to around 20 kts are also possible. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...GINNICK AVIATION...JP/GREIF  942 FXUS63 KBIS 150006 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 706 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers in southwest North Dakota this evening. - Dry and warmer on Wednesday. - Wide range in temperatures from northwest to southeast Thursday as a cold front pushes into the state. - Turning colder with periods of rain and snow Thursday night through Friday, with medium to high chances for light accumulations of snow. - Well below normal temperatures Friday through Saturday, followed by a gradual warm-up into early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 705 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Scattered showers have developed over southwest North Dakota, with a steady increasing trend in coverage since late afternoon. At 6 PM MDT, the most concentrated shower activity was located at the northern end of a 500 mb shortwave from around Beach to Killdeer, and along a surface trough from around Richardton to Hettinger. The northern showers have access to higher MLCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg, and very infrequent lightning is being detected with these. This activity is mostly expected to dissipate after sunset, but the base of the 500 mb shortwave could prolong shower activity along the South Dakota border into the overnight hours. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 345 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A digging western U.S trough will bring a chance of rain and snow followed by much colder temperatures late in the workweek and into the weekend. Currently, stratus has cleared in the west and continues to erode over central and eastern ND. Afternoon CU has developed over portions of western ND however. For the rest of this afternoon and tonight, there remains a low probability of an isolated shower due to the combination of daytime heating and forcing from an approaching shortwave currently over northeast Wyoming. Forecast soundings show a shallow and narrow region of instability so thunder is not anticipated and any weak shower activity that does develop will likely produce little if any qpf reaching the ground. Quasi-zonal upper level flow continues through the day Wednesday before backing to the southwest in response to the upper level trough dropping into the Pacific Northwest. Wednesday should be an very pleasant day with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s with not a lot of wind by North Dakota standards. The upper trough tracks into the northern Rockies Wednesday night bringing the initial chances for precipitation to northwest ND late Wednesday night. Thursday through Friday...The upper trough moves into the Northern High Plains Thursday, then traverses the forecast area Thursday nigh through Friday. At the surface a surface low develops over the Mondak region and is situated along the ND/SD border at 12Z Thursday. The low pushes east during the day with an elongated surface low from northern Minnesota into northeast Colorado by 00Z Friday. This will produce a very tight temperature gradient from northwest to southeast Thursday. Highs are expected to range from the lower 40s far north to the mid 70s far southeast. Winds will also be picking up during the day from northwest to southeast as the surface trough pushes east. There are some (mainly) chance pops in the west and far north Thursday but only the far northwest looks to be the most likely area to see more than a trace, maybe a few hundredths of an inch of rain. The best precipitation chances will occur Thursday night through Friday as the upper level trough moves through the forecast area. A cluster analysis shows that there's a 60/40 split between a more compact wave moving through the forecast area versus a split wave with better energy north and south of the forecast area. It looks cold enough that both solutions will bring snow. It also looks like the forcing and moisture available are limited enough that qpf is pretty light with a broad swath of 0.10 to 0.15 from southwest ND into north central to northeast ND. The more compact wave would yield a more widespread swath of QPF, but overall the differing impacts between the two solutions looks to be minimal. Our latest NBM guidance is depicting a medium probability for an inch of snow extending from southwest into northwest and north central ND, with low to very low probabilities elsewhere. This is the 24 hour probability ending at 18Z Friday. Two inch probabilities then taper to low for this same area. Probabilities for at least a hundredth of an inch of snow are medium to high across all of western and central ND, so most will likely see a little light snow with this system. It will breezy to windy as the rain changes to snow and temperatures will drop well below freezing over much of western and north central ND, so even though snow accumulations are not expected to amount to much, there could be some minor impacts to travel Thursday night into Friday morning where we do see the combination of snow and winds with freezing surfaces. Once the snow ends on Friday the rest of the weekend into early next week looks to remain dry as upper level ridging builds over the region. It will be cold again Friday night into Saturday morning with Saturday morning lows possibly into the teens over parts of the west and north and highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s. We do begin a gradual warm-up Saturday through early next week with highs climbing back into the 60s and lower 70s by Monday and Tuesday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 705 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period, although fog cannot be ruled out at KJMS and surrounding areas later tonight into Wednesday morning. Scattered showers and perhaps a weak thunderstorm or two remain possible in southwest North Dakota this evening, but should diminish after sunset. For this evening, western North Dakota will see westerly winds around 10-15 kts, with light and variable winds elsewhere. Winds then become southerly to southwesterly around 5-10 kts overnight, followed by southwesterly to westerly on Wednesday around 10-15 kts. Some higher gusts are possible across the north Wednesday afternoon. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Hollan DISCUSSION...TWH AVIATION...Hollan  368 FXUS63 KIWX 150007 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 807 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - While confidence is high for multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms into Wednesday, it remains lower regarding timing, placement and impacts in any given area. All modes of severe weather are possible, with heightened concerns either side of the MI/IN state line. - Additional chances for showers and storms exist Wednesday night into Saturday, but each days risk will key in on the previous days outcomes. - Increasing concerns for at least some hydro issues with swaths of locally heavy rain expected on already saturated grounds and high river and lake levels. A Flood Watch has been issued for portions of the area where the greatest confidence exists at this time. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 324 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A very challenging forecast is in store over the next couple of days as the active pattern continues. The focus for this package will reside on the next 24 to 36 hours with minimal changes or discussion on later periods.While CAMs vary considerably on evolution of convection through tonight there is 2 general areas to keep an eye on for both a severe threat and possibly a heavy rain threat. Skies have generally cleared out behind the morning area of showers and storms, allowing for destabilization across the area (SPC Meso indicating SBCAPE of 1500-2500 j/kg with higher levels to the west). 18Z soundings from KILX and KDVN show a powder keg waiting with a strong cap/EML to be overcome. Our first area of concern will be storms that fire most likely in central IL, but could also start along/south of US-24 along a remnant outflow from this mornings convection. Plenty of shear and steep lapse rates will result in rapid intensification of the storms which then move generally east with time. Large hail would be the main threat, but strong winds and possibly some tornado concerns are in play as well. The window for this looks to be from 20Z to maybe 2Z. SWOMCD #422 goes into greater detail on concerns. Have went with chc pops for now in the south until we see how the convection sets up. Heavy rain would also be a concern with plenty of moisture in place. Focus then shifts to expected rapid storm development somewhere in the NE IA/NW IL area in the near future. Specifics can be found in SWOMCD #419 highlighting an eventual Tornado watch as far east as the Chicago area. It is this activity that will become our concern late this evening into the overnight hours with CAMs all over the place on the handling of it. Sufficient signals do exist for the northern third to half of the area most likely in the crosshairs of 1 or 2 batches of storms and an increased threat for severe weather and heavy rainfall. SPC upgraded locations N of US-6 earlier today to Enhanced with all modes possible (trending towards damaging winds with time). The copious amount of rainfall expected could cause a greater overall flood concern than the south given a longer potential duration. A Flood Watch was issued earlier for the northern half of the area where confidence in cover and intensity is greater. That does NOT mean southern areas are not at risk for flooding concerns. WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook placed the entire area in a Slight risk to highlight the concerns. Limited changes have been made into Wednesday and Wednesday night as final evolution and impacts of overnight convection may dictate later chances. SPC has the area in a Marginal Risk for severe storms, with the focus likely being the afternoon or evening hours. Hydro concerns could also be there (hence the watch in effect through 8 pm Wed. A trough moves through with renewed chances for showers and thunderstorms. The severe threat doesn't appear to be as high at this point (Marginal risk for the time being), but something to watch. The trough will quickly exit with an increasing SW flow behind it again as a much deeper trough moved across the Plains are into the area this weekend. Additional severe storms appear possible Saturday with DY6 outlook placing a 15% prob for severe over the area. Behind the front, a shot of colder air and gusty winds arrives for Sunday and Monday as highs drop into the 50s (some 40s?) before moderation starts. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 753 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The active weather pattern will continue with times of showers and scattered thunderstorms through the period. Anomalously mild and very moist conditions for mid April will continue as diurnal heating and weak disturbances continue to generate storms upstream. MVFR to occasional IFR conditions are expected. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for INZ005>009-012-014- 103-104-116-203-204-216. OH...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for OHZ001-002-004-005. MI...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for MIZ078>081-177-277. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Fisher AVIATION...Skipper  911 FXUS66 KOTX 150006 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 506 PM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A robust cold front to deliver valley rain, mountain snow, and gusty winds through Thursday. - Drier and more seasonal temperatures Friday and Saturday. - Rain chances return Sunday and Monday. && .SYNOPSIS... A cold front passage this afternoon into Wednesday will bring lowland rain, mountain snow, and breezy to windy conditions. Some snow will make it down to the lowlands Wednesday night into Thursday morning on the tail end of the mid-week system. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Thursday: A Gulf of Alaska Low continues pushing a decent amount of moisture and cooler air into the Inland Northwest. Precipitable water amounts are around half an inch (120-140 percent above normal). The colder air will drop the snow levels from 4000ft to 2000ft through Wednesday. Mountain snow will continue with valleys along the Cascades and northern valleys changing from rain to rain/snow mix or snow by early Wednesday morning. Snow accumulation will be confined to above 3500ft as ground surface temperatures will be too warm for snow accumulation. Winter weather advisories and a warning have been issued for many of the regions mountain passes through Thursday. Stevens Pass has a 25-75 percent probability snow range of 11-13 inches. Sherman has a 4-5 inches range. Lookout has a 9-14 inch range. Snoqualmie Pass has a 12-14 inch range. Models are indicating weak convection over the higher terrains of the region. The strongest chance for thunder is over Northeast Washington and North Idaho. There is not enough confidence to include thunder for the Cascades. The Low is also tightening the pressure gradient as it swings through the region. It will lead to breezy conditions through the period. Strongest winds will be tonight with gusts into the 30-40 mph range across the Basin. Winds will remain breezy with gusts 15-25 mph. Sustained winds will be in the teens. Overnight temperatures are also expected to dip. While the highs will mainly be in the 40s to low 50s. The lows will drop into the upper 20s and 30s Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Portions of the Columbia Basin have reached early growing season. Cold sensitive vegetation could be impacted. If winds remain breezy, it will lower the potential for frost/freeze impacts. Friday through Tuesday: High pressure fills in behind the exiting Low. A dry warning trend is expected through the weekend and into the start of next week. Something to keep an eye is a Low moving near coast of Southern Oregon on Monday. Depending on the strength and placement, it could lead to light showers returning to the region for the start of the week. /JDC && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFS: The next system has moved in, ushering in rain and lowering ceilings at GEG, SFF, COE, and PUW. As these rounds of precipitation move through, ceilings will drop to MVFR. Ceilings may improve to VFR briefly in between rounds of precip. There is little confidence for all sites but PUW to drop further to IFR. Ceilings are expected to drop down to IFR at PUW around 14-15Z. Gusty west- southwest winds are being observed at each TAF site, with maximum wind gusts expected to hit 25-30kts. Behind the front, colder air will move in, with HREF showing a 20-40% chance of a rain snow mix at GEG, SFF, COE, and PUW starting around 18Z. However, whether thermal profiles will cool enough for mixed rain/snow is one of the more uncertain parts of this forecast, since GFS/ECMWF wet bulb temps remain above freezing and indicate only rain. This will be something to closely monitor. Winds are expected to stay elevated even after the cold front passes, and through the forecast period. MWH/EAT will remain at VFR through the forecast period, and is expected to see chances of rain through around 12Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in precipitation type through 18Z for all TAF sites. Moderate confidence in ceilings dropping to MVFR with precipitation at GEG, SFF, COE, and PUW. Moderate confidence in PUW dropping to IFR starting around 14-15Z. Low to moderate confidence in a rain/snow mix at GEG, SFF, COE, and PUW starting around 18Z. Most impactful alternate scenario would be either precipitation remaining rain or staying as a rain mix later than expected, which would require amendments. /AS ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 38 49 29 50 29 54 / 80 70 30 30 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 37 47 30 48 29 51 / 100 90 50 50 10 10 Pullman 37 44 29 45 29 50 / 90 90 60 50 10 10 Lewiston 43 51 34 50 34 55 / 80 90 50 40 10 0 Colville 34 52 27 54 26 59 / 90 60 30 30 0 0 Sandpoint 37 45 30 46 29 51 / 100 90 60 70 20 20 Kellogg 36 42 28 42 29 46 / 100 90 70 80 30 40 Moses Lake 39 56 30 58 30 60 / 30 20 10 0 0 0 Wenatchee 37 51 33 55 34 59 / 50 20 10 0 0 0 Omak 35 53 31 58 32 61 / 50 20 10 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Freeze Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday morning for Moses Lake Area-Upper Columbia Basin- Wenatchee Area. Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM PDT Wednesday for Okanogan Highlands. Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM PDT Wednesday for Western Chelan County. Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM PDT Wednesday for Western Okanogan County. ID...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 5 AM PDT Thursday for Central Panhandle Mountains. && $$  052 FXUS63 KMPX 150007 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 707 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few thunderstorms possible in southern Minnesota from late afternoon to evening. Most storms stay to the southeast in northeast Iowa and southern Wisconsin. - Isolated showers possible Wednesday, becoming more likely in southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin Wednesday night. - Another larger system arrives Friday and lingers into Saturday. Initial thunderstorms could be strong to severe, with cooler temperatures on the western side of the system bringing a chance for a wintry mix of rain/snow into Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A broad line of weak showers that have mostly resulted in virga is stretched across south-central Minnesota from Marshall through the northern Metro, with pockets of clearing amidst what is otherwise mostly cloudy skies this afternoon. Satellite imagery shows some agitated cumulus clouds along a warm front from central to northeastern Iowa which is expected to be the focus for another round of severe weather later today. Unlike yesterday, the warm front is not going to make it to Minnesota except for perhaps the far southeastern corner, with our environment less favorable due to northerly winds and weak subsidence stemming from the backing wind profile. The only way we see a few storms this far north would be storms forming in north-central Iowa and progressing northwards, rather than forming in our area and moving out. HRRR forecast soundings from Albert Lea around 21z closest to the warm front (for our area) show meager few hundreds of J/KG SBCAPE with a lack of a defined mixed layer, with low level shear in the single digits. Much like yesterday, we do have some upper level shear thanks to increasing winds aloft, however this is in direct competition with the northerly cooling/drying winds in the lower levels. Lapse rates are less favorable than yesterday coinciding with the weaker instability, on the order of around 7 degrees/km from 850-500mb. Overall, the environment is significantly less favorable for our area than yesterday thanks to the position of the warm front and competing forcings over us, resulting in a much lower chance for both strength and frequency of storms. Patchy dense fog is once again possible overnight, however should be less in terms of both coverage and peak intensity compared to this morning thanks to slightly stronger surface winds and stronger radiational cooling needed to produce the truly dense fog, which seems less likely given persistent lower level cloud cover overnight. Weak rain chances linger in southern Minnesota tomorrow into Thursday stemming from a quick moving shortwave trough sliding west to east across the area, however lack of a surface response and therefore limited moisture advection means we likely miss any showers for the majority of the area. Thursday looks to be the best overall day for outdoor activities this week with temperatures in the 70s and partly to mostly sunny skies ahead of our next system incoming on Friday. Speaking of which, an upper level trough spanning most of the western American Rockies will spin up a surface low over Colorado by early Friday morning, ejecting into the plains before tracking towards Iowa and southern Minnesota. There are still some pretty significant wobbles possible within the track, however the current consensus would bring the broad surface low directly towards our CWA, resulting in lower level warm air and moisture advection northwards Friday morning. This will enhance instability and chances for thunderstorms, and we could end up seeing some severe weather given the strong forcing from the synoptic scale features as long as they end up phasing with the surface low. The lingering uncertainty is due to the track of the low as well as how broad it ends up being, with a broader low resulting in weaker forcing and an overall less favorable environment, so we will be watching the next few days of model runs closely to see how things evolve over time. The best chance for storms looks to be along and just ahead of the surface low, timing wise mid morning to evening Friday. Most guidance attempts to eject the surface low towards northern Lake Superior, which would then wrap cooler central Canadian air back towards the region and could even introduce a wintry mix of rain/snow as temperatures rapidly cool behind the cold front Friday night into Saturday. Surface temperatures overnight look to drop to near freezing but rebound back into at least the 40s on Saturday/Sunday, meaning any wintry mix would be melting during the day and does not look to stick. Based off the longer range outlook, this would look to be our last flakes of the season with temperatures near normal through the end of the month on the GEFS/EPS. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 650 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Mostly VFR conditions are in place this evening, with light and variable winds. Another round of fog/low stratus is still expected, though confidence has decreased for how far south and west the densest fog will spread. The sites with the best chance of observing a period of IFR or worse will be KSTC, KRNH, and KEAU. Areas near KMKT, KMSP, and KAXN will be on edge of the densest fog and may have more localized IFR conditions. Winds will settle in out of the northeast after sunrise, generally at or below 5 kts. KMSP...Some parts of the Twin Cities metro may drop as low as 1SM, though the widespread dense fog has trended further east into Wisconsin. As such, we have removed the tempo for lower vis and cigs. If KMSP does drop lower than 3SM or BKN006, it would be during the 10z-14z window tomorrow morning. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR. Wind SE 5-10kts. FRI...MVFR/SHRA likely, chance -TSRA. Wind SE to SW 10-15G25kts. SAT...MVFR ceilings. Chance IFR/-RASN. Wind NW 15G25-30kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TDH AVIATION...BED  929 FXUS61 KALY 150010 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 810 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Severe Thunderstorm Watch #108 has been cancelled from the Capital District and southern Vermont north, but remains in effect for all areas in eastern NY south of Albany and Berkshire MA/Litchfield CT through 10 PM. Still looking at additional convection developing in these areas where the environment is still favorable with temperatures around 80F and still well mixed. The threat will eventually wane after 10 PM as the environment stabilizes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms into this evening threaten to bring locally damaging wind gusts that could cause property damage and possible power outages. 2. Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday south of the Capital Region. 3. The threat for widespread impactful weather is low from Thursday through the end of the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Scattered severe convection is favored across the region into this evening where the Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect. Eventually, the rain-cooled air and cool outflow from storms and diurnal effect will also stabilize the environment, hindering further development later this evening along. Severe storms remain possible for areas well south of Albany over the next couple hours. KEY MESSAGE 2... Another shortwave trough will track through the mean, zonal flow tomorrow, bringing additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms. With today's quasi-stationary boundary still present, just a bit further south, and another surface wave riding along it, there could be some isolated severe thunderstorms, particularly in the Eastern Catskills where a Marginal Risk for severe weather currently exists. The primary threat with these will also be strong to locally damaging wind gusts, but the threat looks much more subdued compared to today. KEY MESSAGE 3... Additional disturbances will force a rinse-and-repeat type pattern through the end of the week with rounds of additional showers and non-severe thunderstorms amid a persistent, warm environment. Temperatures will continue to run above normal until late this weekend into early next week when a fairly potent cold front sweeps through the region and brings us actually to below-normal levels by Monday. That said, the overall probability for impactful weather is low from Thursday through early next week. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 00z Thursday...SHRA/TSRA are now well south of KGFL/KALB and have just moved south of KPSF. There is still a line of SHRA/TSRA with gusty winds that may reach KPOU before weakening, so have mentioned a TEMPO from 01z-03z. Otherwise, VFR conditions will likely prevail until overnight when fog is likely to occur at KGFL and possibly at KPSF given the earlier rain and moist low levels. Will mention IFR/LIFR conditions at KGFL and IFR at KPSF although confidence is lower there. Additional scattered SHRA are expected to move east across the area Wednesday morning to early afternoon so have included PROB30 at most sites. Winds will be west-southwest around 5-10 kt, becoming variable less than 5 kt overnight. Outlook... Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Sunday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures(Year Set): Today April 14: Albany: 89(2023) Glens Falls: 84(2023) Poughkeepsie: 91(2023) Wednesday April 15: Albany: 86(2003) Glens Falls: 84(2003) Poughkeepsie: 84(2003) Thursday April 16: Albany: 91(2012) Glens Falls: 89(2002) Poughkeepsie: 91(2012) && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...07/12 AVIATION...07 CLIMATE...07  636 FXUS63 KMQT 150016 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 816 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread fog, dense at times, and drizzle is expected to develop tonight as temperatures cool and weak, moist flow remains in place. - The threat for flooding continues through the week due to snowmelt and potential showers and thunderstorms. A Flood Watch is in effect for the entire U.P., ending Wednesday morning over the far west and Thursday night elsewhere. - A prolonged period of well above freezing temperatures and higher dewpoints will continue to bring increased snowmelt, especially Thursday into Friday. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday night but the main contributor for potential flooding over the next few days will be snowmelt. - Showers and Thunderstorms are expected with a cold front Friday night into Saturday early morning. This will bring the potential for heavier rainfall, there is a 10-30% chance for 1" or more of rainfall. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 350 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 This afternoon an expansive area of low clouds was over the U.P. with upslope flow bringing fog into the Keweenaw. Winds had turned southerly bringing warmer, moist air northwards into northern WI, approaching the far western U.P. Between the mess of low, mid and upper level clouds there were a few breaks starting and wouldn't be surprised for locations closer to the MI/WI state line to see some sunshine this afternoon. Temperatures were in the 40s to low 50s across the U.P. but still expecting the south and west to rise into the 60s by late afternoon or early evening. The warmest air was over central and southern WI where a warm front was stalled. Fog and drizzle this morning had diminished with the exception of the Keweenaw. Rivers were still slowly rising over the central and eastern U.P. but a trend downwards was starting in the far west where much of the snowpack has eroded. Though most of the snowpack was also gone in the south-central heavy rainfall over the last several days continued to cause flooding. The warm front will move very little through Wednesday with the U.P. remaining on the cooler side of the boundary. The biggest impacts to the weather through tomorrow will continue to be warmer temperatures and higher dew points leading to increased snowmelt, with potential flooding of river, small streams, creeks and low lying areas. With the low level moisture and weak flow expect that fog, dense at times, will become widespread tonight along with drizzle as the saturated layer reaches upwards of 3 kft. There will be elevated instability over the area and a few showers, possibly a thunderstorm far south, could get kicked off as a shortwave and upper level jet move across the region tonight. However, the better dynamics will be further south in WI so not expecting strong or severe thunderstorms tonight. Rainfall amounts should generally be light with any showers that do form. Wednesday will start out foggy with drizzle but expect conditions to improve through the day, we could even see a rare appearance of the sun over the central and west during the afternoon. Much like today temperatures will vary greatly across the U.P, with low 40s in the far north to the low 60s south. A few showers are possible in the afternoon as a shortwave approaches the area. The chance for showers will increase Wednesday night, especially over the south and east as the shortwave passes through the area. Precip amounts look to be less than a quarter of an inch though cant rule out locally higher amounts should thunderstorms form in the south and east. A warmer stretch is expected for Thursday into Friday as a deep trough moves into the western U.S. Easterly winds will develop on Thursday, becoming southerly by Friday. This will bring the potential for some of the warmest temperatures thus far this spring, reaching into the 70s over the west (90% chance for temperatures over 70). The strengthening southerly winds, warm temperatures and higher dew points will accelerate the melting of the snowpack further with continued flooding concerns. More uncertainly exists for the weekend as the low pressure moves east along or north of Lake Superior. Slower solutions keep warmer air in the U.P. well into Saturday while faster solutions would bring a front through and much cooler temperatures by Saturday morning. Another round of rain and thunderstorms is likely to accompany the front. Behind the front it will be much cooler with snow showers possible Saturday night into Sunday. Some guidance still suggests a wet snowfall for the western U.P. NBM probabilities for 2" or more of wet snow in the west are around 20-40% Saturday night into Sunday. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 815 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 CMX remains impacted by fog and low cigs this evening, currently reporting LIFR conditions. IWD and SAW are holding at MVFR for now, but they will also deteriorate to IFR/LIFR by Wed 06Z. All sites will then become VLIFR overnight as widespread dense fog sets up over the region courtesy of ample low level moisture with weak winds. && .MARINE... Issued at 350 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Light, stable flow is expected through Thursday with a weak pressure gradient over the area. Dense fog is expected to expand tonight over much of the lake and continue into Wednesday morning. There is low confidence in how quickly the fog will erode on Wednesday. Southerly winds will develop and increase on Friday ahead of a deepening low pressure, 30% chance for gales over the eastern lake. This low will push through over the weekend bringing a cold front and the potential for northwesterly gales (around 50% chance Saturday night into Sunday). && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 350 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 NOHRSC analysis showed the the snowpack had eroded over much of the southern and far western U.P. Over the north and east several inches to over a foot of SWE remained, greatest in the higher terrain. Snowmelt will continue through the week and accelerate late in the week as a warm, moist airmass moves into the U.P. Additional rain chances continue, mainly Wednesday night and Friday night. Rainfall Wednesday night will likely be less than a quarter inch but heavier rainfall is possible for Friday night. NBM has a 10-30% chance for an inch of more of rainfall Friday night. Colder weather is expected for Saturday night and Sunday which should slow the melt of any remaining snow. Flooding in the wake of snowmelt and multiple heavy rain events continued over the south-central U.P. today. Though the snowpack is mostly gone in the south-central; swamps, creeks, low lying areas and rivers remain full/high and additional showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday night. This could exacerbate the ongoing flooding though widespread heavy rainfall is not expected. For the north and east snowmelt and potential rainfall will continue the flooding threat though the week with the analysis and observations showing over a foot of SWE in the higher terrain. Rivers in the far western U.P. were beginning to fall and anticipate that the Flood Watch will be able to expire Wednesday morning. Will be extending the Flood Watch for all but the far western U.P. until Thursday night. This may need to be extended further in time with future updates as even warmer temperatures and higher dew points, along with increasing winds are expected for Thursday and Friday. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Flood Watch through late Thursday night for MIZ001-003>007- 010>014-084-085. Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Wednesday for MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085. Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Wednesday for MIZ002-009. Lake Superior... Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ Wednesday for LSZ162-240>251-263-264. Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT Wednesday for LSZ265>267. Lake Michigan... Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ248-250. && $$ DISCUSSION...NL AVIATION...TDUD MARINE...NL HYDROLOGY...  390 FXUS65 KBOI 150017 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 617 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain, mountain snow and gusty winds on Wednesday, then snow level lowering to valley floors Thursday morning. - Subfreezing morning temperatures Thursday through Saturday across the entire area. - Warmer temperatures over the weekend with another chance of precipitation early next week. && .SHORT TERM /Through Thursday Night/... Issued 232 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2026 An upper trough dropping south along the BC coast will push into the region later tonight bringing valley rain and mountain snow. Precipitation will develop across SE Oregon by late this evening, spreading into SW Idaho overnight. Snow levels of 5000-6500 feet will support snow or a rain/snow mix across mountain valley floors with any minor accumulation melting off by late morning. Precipitation mixes with or changes to rain below 6000 feet with a heavy, wet snow continuing in the higher mountains through Wednesday evening. Liquid equivalent totals over the mountains is 0.75-1.5" over the 24h period from late this evening through Wednesday evening. Above 6500 feet this will translate to 10-20" of snow, with high end amounts of up to 2 feet. Lower elevations will see periods of rain on Wednesday. By late morning strong southwest flow aloft (30-50 mph at ~10kft) will mix to the surface bringing gusty winds to higher terrain outside of the Snake Plain. The windiest locations will be southern Harney, Malhuer, and Owyhee counties where gusts of 40-45 mph are expected. A cold front will push into the region Wednesday evening bringing a chance of thunderstorms, more gusty winds and lower snow levels. Areas that don't tap into the stronger winds during the day, will see a period of stronger gusts with the frontal passage. This is mostly in the Snake Plain and Weiser Basin. Snow levels will drop to valley floors behind the front as precipitation scatters out. Though it will remain breezy, lower elevations will briefly flirt with freezing temperatures Thursday morning. The upper low passes overhead on Thursday, keeping a chance of rain/snow/graupel showers at lower elevations with snow showers in the mountains. Daytime instability will support heavier showers and possible thunderstorms in the mountains which could drop brief heavy snow. Thursday night will see drying conditions and clearing skies as the low exits eastward. This will allow for a widespread freeze, and for many locations a hard freeze (28 degrees or less). && .LONG TERM /Friday through Tuesday/... Issued 232 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2026 Strong northwest flow from the back end of the eastward moving trough will continue breezy conditions Friday, with elevated gusts up to 30 mph mainly over Magic Valley and Camas Prairie. The west-central ID mountains will see a 20-30% chance of snow showers from remnant upper moisture on Friday. Nighttime temperatures will be expected to stay on the colder end, below freezing through Saturday morning. Otherwise, a warming and drying trend will settle in for the weekend as a ridge builds in from the northwest coast. Peak temperatures will hover slightly above normal on Saturday and 5-10 degrees above normal on Sunday. Long-range guidance continues to favor another low digging down from the Gulf of Alaska early next week, although considerable uncertainty remains over its arrival timing for our area. However, ensembles still favor the late Sunday/Monday time frame. With that, precipitation chances will increase from west to east early Sunday into Monday, reaching 30-60% area-wide by Monday afternoon. Precipitation chances will remain elevated through midweek. The south-southwest flow from this system will keep temperatures near normal when it impacts our area. Gusty winds can be expected ahead of and behind the system passage. && .AVIATION /00Z Wednesday through Thursday/... Issued 615 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2026 VFR this eve. Precip NW to SE tonight into Wed, with snow levels 5k-6kft MSL. Low VFR-MVFR in rain, IFR/LIFR in mtn snow. Cold front arriving late Wed aftn/eve, intensifying precip rates, rapidly lowering snow levels from NW to SE, and creating sharp wind shifts. MVFR-LIFR conditions in heavy showers. A 15% chc of lightning with front. Mtns obscured in precip/low cigs. Surface winds: SE-SW 5-15 kt, increasing to 10-20 kt gusts 20-35 kt beginning late Wed AM. Then, W-N 15-30 kt with 25-45 kt gusts with cold front passage Wed PM. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-SW 25-40 kt. KBOI...VFR tonight. Rain showers returning early Wednesday morning with lowering ceilings. MVFR chances increase after Wed/10Z. Strong cold front arrives late Wed afternoon, bringing strong showers, potential for graupel/lightning, sharp wind shift, and temporary MVFR/IFR. Surface winds: SE or variable 3-12 kt. Wind shift around Thu/00Z to NW 15-25 kt with gusts to 25-35 kt. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....SH SHORT TERM...DG LONG TERM....JY  500 FXUS64 KJAN 150018 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 718 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Limited threat for dense fog development Wednesday morning, particularly across south and east Mississippi. - Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly north of Interstate 20 Thursday afternoon. - Chances for more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity exists areawide Saturday afternoon and night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 116 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Tonight through next Monday...Strong high pressure aloft will continue to meander over the central and eastern Gulf of America through the end of the week. This, while high pressure at the surface centered off the coast of the Carolinas, remains wedged into the region from the east. The combination of the two will continue to promote overall quiet conditions and above normal warmth across the forecast area through the remainder of this week and into the start of the upcoming weekend. With increased moisture, mild conditions, and light to calm winds overnight into early Wednesday morning, fog is again possible across mainly south and east Mississippi. A "limited" threat of dense fog is possible here again as well, with visibilities reduced to a half mile or less at times. Any fog that develops will begin eroding after sunrise. Otherwise, look for a quiet night with some low stratus again developing across portions of the area, as lows range from the upper 50s to middle 60s. There will be a slight increase in rain chances across northern portions of the forecast area on Thursday. While the remainder of the CWA will remain dry, a shortwave lifting northeast across the Mid-South region could spark some isolated showers and storms across mainly the Highway 82 corridor during peak heating hours Thursday afternoon. Any convection that develops during this time, will quickly dissipate in the early evening as day time heating wanes. A better chance for showers and isolated storms currently exists across the entire forecast area Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. This is as a result of a stronger shortwave that's advertised to push a cold front east into and through the region late Saturday afternoon into early Sunday. While any rain chances are certainly welcomed, unfortunately this front will be in the process of weakening as forcing lifts out to the northeast. This looks to keep the better rain chances during this timeframe across western and northern portions of the forecast area. Therefore, the upcoming weekend is by no means looking to be a washout. In the wake of the front Sunday into Monday, some relief from the above normal warmth and humid conditions is expected. Highs both days currently look to struggle to climb out of the 70s. While lows both Sunday and Monday night will be cool as they generally fall into the upper 40s and low to middle 50s. /19/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 711 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through most of tonight. Another round of low stratus/fog potential will advect in from the south toward daybreak, and primarily impact southern/eastern sites with LIFR/IFR categories during the early to mid morning hours Wednesday. Expect a quick improvement to VFR category at all sites by late morning continuing through the remainder of the day and into the evening. Southerly surface wind will diminish this evening, then pick up during the day and become gusty. /EC/ .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 61 84 64 86 / 0 0 0 10 Meridian 57 85 61 86 / 0 0 0 10 Vicksburg 61 85 64 88 / 0 0 0 10 Hattiesburg 60 85 62 87 / 0 0 0 10 Natchez 62 85 64 88 / 0 0 0 10 Greenville 64 85 67 86 / 0 0 10 20 Greenwood 63 85 66 86 / 0 0 10 20 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ 19/SW/EC  927 FXUS66 KSGX 150019 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 519 PM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Today and Wednesday will be dry with weakening winds with Wednesday high temperatures warming to around average. Stronger onshore flow will spreading cooling inland on Thursday with southwest to west winds for the mountains and deserts gusting to 35 to 45 mph. The flow will turn offshore on Friday with warming for the coast and valleys and continued cooling for the mountains and deserts. Northeast winds along and below the coastal slopes of the mountains will gust to 35 to 45 mph. Warmer inland with weaker winds for next weekend with high temperatures warming to around 5 to 10 degrees above average on Sunday. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... Drier and cooler air is in place after the passage of Monday's low pressure system, which now is spinning over the Four Corners region. The last of the moisture remains over the coastal basin in the form of cumulus clouds from earlier this morning, which will mostly clear throughout the afternoon. Slightly warmer weather will be seen on Wednesday as the system departs into the Great Plains and an area of low pressure stays far to the north along the West Coast and U.S. - Canada border. High temperatures will be close to normal for this time of year by Wednesday afternoon with highs in the 70s for much of the coastal basin and high desert with 50s and 60s across the mountain areas. The area of low pressure over the Pacific Northwest will descend into the Great Basin on Thursday, generating an increase in onshore flow across the region. Gusty west winds will occur in the mountains and deserts, with the exact speeds given by the location of the low and how tight the pressure gradient becomes. There is about a 10-15 MPH spread in wind gusts values from the NBM's 25th to 75th percentiles, indicating some uncertainty. A combination of high resolution models and NBM guidance in yields gusts 30-45 MPH across the deserts with local gusts over 50 MPH in the mountain passes. As the base of the trough passes closer to SoCal and over the Desert Southwest, winds will transition to a Santa Ana wind pattern by Friday. This will bring north and east gusty winds to coastal slope and western valley locations. Again, the exact track of the low will determine how windy it becomes, but wind speeds do look similar to that of Thursday in these regions, probably closer to 20-35 MPH across valleys of Orange County and the Inland Empire. The Santa Ana wind regime will bring a slight warm up to the coastal basin with slightly cooler weather across the deserts. A transient ridge enters the picture by this coming weekend, bringing less wind and warmer weather across the board. This will bring highs near to slightly above average with 70s and 80s west of the mountains and reaching into the 90s across the lower deserts. Another large area of low pressure system will move closer to the West Coast by early next week. Model guidance continues to show differences in timing, strength, and placement of this system. This will bring cooler and windier weather with the increased chance of precipitation. How much precip and what time (if any) occurs, is still...up in the air. Confidence continues to increase that this weekend will be dry, but we will continue to watch a change in the forecast pattern slated for early next week. && .AVIATION... 150015Z...Coasts/Valleys...Mostly clear skies and VFR conditions expected through this evening. Low clouds based around 2000 ft MSL will develop over nearshore waters around 10-13z Wed. 40% chance for coastal TAF sites to experience BKN cigs 12-17z. Low clouds scatter out by late morning. Mountains/Deserts...Mostly clear with VFR conditions will prevail through Wed evening. && .MARINE... Wind gusts could briefly reach 20 kt Thursday afternoon and evening. Otherwise, no hazardous marine conditions are expected through Sunday. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...APR AVIATION/MARINE...KW  672 FXUS65 KBOU 150019 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 619 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Numerous rain showers with snow showers above 7000-8000 feet MSL will continue through this evening. Rain showers linger overnight across the northeast plains. - Locally critical fire weather conditions over the plains Thursday afternoon. - Next system moves in Friday with much colder temperatures and snow for most locations. - Hard freeze likely Friday night and into Saturday morning with lows in the upper teens to mid 20s. && .DISCUSSION /Through Tuesday/... Issued at 227 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Water vapor satellite imagery shows the upper level trough tracking east across Utah. The trough will continue tracking eastward through tonight. Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue ahead of the trough. Rain and snow showers will taper off this evening over the higher terrain and along the Front Range as the trough shifts over northeast Colorado. The snow level will be between 7,000 and 8,000 feet MSL. An additional 2 to 6 inches of snow is expected in the mountains. The rain showers will linger through the night over the northeast plains. Locally, up to half an inch of rainfall is possible over the northeast plains under the deformation zone. Cool northwest flow aloft will prevail Wednesday behind the exiting trough. High temperatures will reach the mid 60s to lower 70s across northeast Colorado. Flow aloft backs to the southwest Thursday ahead of the next storm system. This will bring warmer temperatures and continued dry conditions. South to southwest winds will increase as flow aloft increases and a surface low forms over Wyoming/northeast Colorado. The strongest winds, with gusts up to 40 mph, are expected over the mountains.  Over the plains, the stronger winds will be found south of I-70. An upper level trough will track across the Central Rockies on Friday. Models are in good agreement that this trough will bring widespread light precipitation (less than half an inch) and cold temperatures. There are slight differences between the models regarding strength and timing, which could nudge amounts up or down. Precipitation may begin as rain across the plains, but the airmass quickly cools with snow expected Friday afternoon. Temperatures at 700mb fall to -8 to -12C, which is plenty cold enough for snow. As previously discussed, precipitation amounts are generally expected to be light with snowfall amounts less than 3 inches across the plains. In addition to the needed precipitation, this system will be very cold. Overnight lows are expected to fall into the lower to mid 20s. Low lying areas will likely see colder temperatures, with readings in the 15 to 20 degree range. Saturday morning temperatures will be the coldest since mid March. Above-ground irrigation lines may be damaged Friday night and Saturday morning due to the hard freeze. It's best (safest) to disconnect hoses and drain above ground irrigation lines ahead of time. The upper level trough shifts east of the region by Saturday morning, leaving a dry northwest flow aloft in its wake. After Saturday morning's cold start, temperatures climbed into the 50s across northeast Colorado. A little below average for this time of year.  Sunday through Tuesday, upper level ridging builds over the Central Rockies for Sunday and possibly into Monday. Once the ridge shifts east of the region late Monday or Tuesday, southwest flow aloft will prevail. All three days are expected to be warm and dry. Sunday will be the coolest with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Slow warming continues early next week and by Tuesday highs over northeast Colorado are expected to reach the upper 70s to lower 80s. Windy conditions are not expected under this pattern, but if they occur, they would raise fire weather concerns. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday/... Issued at 617 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Recent radar imagery shows light rain showers in the vicinity of KDEN and KAPA at this time, as well as WNW winds gusting to 25KT. We have extended the TEMPO for -SHRA until 03Z, given that it is still possible for brief ceiling lowerings (5000-6000ft) and gusty winds to occur with the ongoing shower activity. Ceilings will improve later tonight after rain showers and virga move out of the area, and winds will turn variable with some weak drainage winds possible in the early morning hours. Winds on Wednesday afternoon will stay W-NW at all three TAF sites. There is a slight chance (30%) for some periods of gusts in the 20-25KT range at KBJC late in the afternoon due to favorable conditions for downsloping winds, but we opted not to include gusts in the TAF at this time due to low confidence. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ247. && $$ DISCUSSION...12 AVIATION...AA  351 FXUS62 KRAH 150019 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 819 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 815 PM Tuesday... * NCFS has requested Increased Fire Danger for all of cntl NC through at least Thu, but statements (SPS) will only highlight the following day (Wed). && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 245 PM Tuesday... 1) Dry fuels combined with lower humidity and near record heat will promote fire weather concerns through the weekend. 2) An early-season heat wave will result in near record high temperatures from Wednesday through Saturday. 3) A late-weekend pattern transition is expected with a cold frontal passage. Low-end rain chances are expected on Sunday, followed by much cooler temperatures early next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 245 PM Tuesday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry fuels combined with lower humidity and near record heat will promote fire weather concerns through the weekend. The anomalous mid-level ridge will amplify along the eastern seaboard through the end of the week. Associated subsidence over the southeast will promote continued dry conditions at least through Saturday. Precipitation as a percentage of normal over the past 30 days is as low as 5 to 25% for portions of our area worsening the elevated drought conditions. As such, fuels have been anomalously dry for some time. Winds will remain light Wednesday through Saturday, but with temperatures increasing into the lower to mid 90s, along with fairly deep mixing heights (and decreasing PWAT), RH should dip into the mid to upper 20 percent range each afternoon. A little bump in gustiness may be possible Thursday afternoon with the passage of a dry short-wave and again on Sunday ahead of and behind a cold front. Overall though, meteorological conditions (combined RH and wind) should largely remain sub-IFD criteria. However, given persistent dry fuels, near record temps, and poor overnight recovery for much of central NC, the NC Forest Service may request additional IFDs for portions of central NC to help with messaging their current state- wide burn ban. KEY MESSAGE 2... An early-season heat wave will result in near record high temperatures from Wednesday through Saturday. Anomalously strong subtropical ridging will persist over the Southeast US for much of the period from Wednesday through Saturday, other than a brief dry shortwave passage on Friday. At the surface, a Bermuda High will bring warm southwesterly flow to central NC during this time. 1000-850 mb thicknesses are modeled to be around the 95th percentile for this time of year, and forecast maximum and minimum temperatures get close to or reach record highs each day. Mostly lower-90s for highs and lower-to-mid-60s for lows are expected, which is around 15-20 degrees above normal. Can't rule out some mid-90s on Saturday, which looks to be the hottest day. For reference, this would get close to the hottest temperatures ever recorded any day in the month of April. See the climate section below for more details. Fortunately, humidity looks tolerable, with dew points mostly bottoming out in the lower-to-mid-50s each day, perhaps even some 40s especially in the west. So heat indices will be about 2-4 degrees cooler than the actual air temperatures each day. Still, several days of highs in the lower-90s could result in heat stress for sensitive individuals and those working and exercising outdoors. KEY MESSAGE 3... A late-weekend pattern transition is expected with a cold frontal passage. Low-end rain chances are expected on Sunday, followed by much cooler temperatures early next week. A broad mid/upper trough will advance into the Eastern US from the Plains this weekend. An associated cold front will move across central NC on Sunday. This may result in showers and isolated storms, but at this time both the GFS and ECMWF and most of their ensembles move it through too early in the day for much instability to develop (a few hundred J/kg of CAPE at most). This combined with the best forcing and moisture from the trough focused to our north mean rainfall amounts look light, with ensemble means only a tenth of an inch or less. So there will be very little if any relief from the drought. It will turn significantly cooler on Monday and Tuesday with below-normal temperatures (highs mainly in the upper-60s to lower-70s, lows in the 40s). && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... As of 800 PM Tuesday... Sub-tropical high pressure extending across the South Atlantic states will favor a high probability of VFR conditions and sswly surface winds that will strengthen and become at least occasionally gusty with daytime heating again on Wednesday. Outlook: Sub-tropical high pressure will favor warm, dry, and VFR conditions in cntl NC through Sat. Light, probably VFR rain will be possible along and behind a cold front that will move across cntl NC early Sunday. && .CLIMATE... All-Time Records for April KGSO: 95 on 4/28/1915 KRDU: 95 on 4/23/1980 and 4/28/1896 KFAY: 96 on 4/12/1930 Record High Temperatures: April 15: KGSO: 90/2006 KRDU: 92/1941 KFAY: 95/2006 April 16: KGSO: 88/2002 KRDU: 92/1941 KFAY: 94/2006 April 17: KGSO: 90/1967 KRDU: 93/1896 KFAY: 92/1941 April 18: KGSO: 90/1976 KRDU: 95/1896 KFAY: 93/1941 April 19: KFAY: 94/1941 Record High Minimum Temperatures: April 15: KGSO: 65/2006 KRDU: 64/1993 April 16: KGSO: 66/2006 KRDU: 64/1912 KFAY: 69/1934 April 17: KGSO: 63/2002 KRDU: 67/1896 KFAY: 66/1921 April 18: KGSO: 66/1909 KRDU: 63/1941 KFAY: 67/2002 April 19: KRDU: 67/1896 KFAY: 67/2002 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Luchetti/Danco/Badgett AVIATION...MWS CLIMATE...  698 FXUS63 KGID 150019 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 719 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Red Flag Warning through 9 PM for most of our counties along and south of the Nebraska-Kansas border (RH 15-25%, WSW wind gusts 25-35 mph) - Severe thunderstorms will be possible this evening mainly within a corridor from Kearney and Holdrege and points to the northeast towards York and Fullerton. The main threats will be quarter size hail and wind gusts to 60 mph through around or just after sunset. - Another round of thunderstorms Wednesday morning through 3 PM across south central Nebraska could also become severe with the primary threats being large hail and damaging winds. - Friday's storm system will likely send a cold front through early in the day resulting in morning highs, strong northerly winds, and colder temperatures than currently forecast (likely not a nice day). But this will probably keep the severe weather threat east of our forecast area. - Strong north-northwest winds Friday into Friday night: Our entire forecast area will have strong north-northwest winds Friday into Friday night, with sustained speeds of at least 30 MPH and gusts of at least 40 MPH likely. (Not a nice day) - Almost daily fire weather concerns Thurs onward: Each afternoon between Thursday and Monday, at least near-critical fire weather conditions are forecast develop within at least parts of our forecast area. A few days could also see fire weather conditions reach critical levels, including already on Thursday. - Slightly sub-freezing temperatures possible this weekend: Some areas will fall below freezing already Saturday morning with most areas around or below freezing by Sunday morning. Did you already plant your tomatoes (better cover them). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 251 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Today... The SPC expanded the marginal severe weather risk area into our forecast area along the nearly stationary boundary running from Kearney towards York. We have seen vertical development in the CU field around the Tri-Cities and are getting close to possible thunderstorm development. We could see a few isolated thunderstorms in this narrow frontal zone where moisture has been pooling allowing dewpoints to climb to around 50F. These will mainly be elevated thunderstorms taking advantage of the steep lapse rates, modest MUCAPE values to around 1000 J/KG, and very strong 0-6 km shear (65 kts). Quarter sized hail is the primary threat, but larger DCAPE values over 1200 J/KG suggest that strong wind gusts to 60 mph will also be possible with any of these thunderstorms. Tonight... We could see some scattered showers or even an isolated thunderstorm, but most areas will likely stay dry. However, things could get more interesting during the day on Wednesday. Wednesday... The last two runs (12Z and 18Z) of the RRFS have been indicating thunderstorm development across our western zones around dawn. These thunderstorms then track northeast through the morning, could impact the Tri-Cities, and exit our northeastern forecast area early Wednesday afternoon (likely before 3 PM). Although our forecast area is not currently outlooked for severe weather, it is possible that the severe weather threat area may need to be expanded to include some of our Nebraska counties. The main threat will again be hail and wind through early afternoon. Breezy northwesterly winds in the afternoon along with cooler 60s behind the storm system may result in it feeling not as nice as one might expect. Thursday... This is a high confidence warm day with highs back into the 80s. It should be dry and we have some fire weather concerns, please see the fire weather section below. Friday Through next Weekend... A big open wave upper trough will race across the plains, but the timing is not favorable for our area to see much if any precipitation. An expected Friday morning frontal passage will likely result in falling temperatures on Friday. Our forecast is probably too warm and would not be surprised if see some areas falling into the 40s Friday afternoon. Even if it starts out nice Friday morning across our southeastern zones, it probably won't end very nice behind that cold front. Fire weather is again a concern. Please see the fire weather section below. Monday and Tuesday... The cold will be short lived and we should quickly see a warmer weather pattern return ahead of a developing western United States Trough. That trough could bring us some mid week rain. We'll have to see as it's still a long ways off. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 713 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Scattered chances for showers and storms continue throughout this TAF period...mainly first thing this evening then again during the daytime hours tomorrow. Overall confidence in timing isn't high, thus kept mention in PROB30 groups. Have VFR conditions through the overnight hours, with models showing the potential for MVFR through the first half of the day. Winds are expected to remain north-northeasterly for much of the period, some uncertainty during the afternoon hours tomorrow...direction could be more northwesterly. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 520 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING: Red flag conditions are ongoing south of the nearly stationary boundary. This includes our Nebraska counties along the NE/KS border as well as all of our north central Kansas counties. Red flag conditions are expected to continue until around sunset. Higher dewpoints just north of the stationary boundary will limit the fire danger along the I80 (Tri-Cities) area. THURSDAY: We will get a break in the fire weather conditions on Wednesday due to cooler weather and scattered showers. However, the heat, drier RH, and southerly winds will return on Thursday afternoon- early evening as high temperatures again jump into the 80s with southerly winds sustained around 20 MPH/gusting at least 25 MPH. Relative humidity will tank to around 10-20% in the afternoon. We may need fire weather headlines for Thursday afternoon, but wanted to get through today's Red Flag Warning first before issuing for Thursday. FRIDAY-MONDAY: There is less certainty during this time frame and it will get cooler. The airmass behind Friday's system is dry and RH values will continue to be at least near critical. There could be enough wind to result in possible fire weather headlines during this period for some areas. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ083>087. KS...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005>007- 017>019. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wesely AVIATION...ADP FIRE WEATHER...Wesely  503 FXUS63 KMKX 150023 AAA AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 723 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Significant severe weather event remains forecast through 10 PM. Severe winds and tornadoes continue to be possible. Seek immediate shelter if a warning is issued for your area this evening. - Additional severe storms possible Wednesday afternoon if a front remains stalled across the area. If the front sets up south of the area, severe potential will greatly decrease but flash flooding will remain possible due to training convection. - Heavy rainfall could lead to additional periods of flooding this afternoon into Wednesday. Additional Flood Watches are possible especially tomorrow. - Additional windows for heavy rainfall, flooding, and severe thunderstorms Friday into Saturday. All severe hazards will be possible later Tuesday afternoon into the evening. && .UPDATE... Issued 722 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Several discrete supercell thunderstorms tracked across portions of southern WI between 4 and 7 PM. Many produced very large, destructive hail of 2.5 to 3 inches in diameter. There were many areas of radar- indicated rotation capable of producing tornadoes. There was one radar- confirmed tornado warning issued in northern Waukesha county. We will continue to collect damage reports through the morning and conduct any formal damage surveys deemed necessary tomorrow morning. The storms have congealed more now and flash flooding is a growing concern from repeated rounds of storms over certain areas. Damaging winds are a growing concern over hail now. There is also a QLCS tornado concern due to 0-3 shear vectors are WSW at 35 to 40 kt which are perpendicular to that line of storms tracking into south central WI. The low level jet is increasing, so any surge to the ENE could see a brief spin-up. Cronce && .SHORT TERM... Issued 309 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Tonight through Wednesday night: Storms have begun to fire this afternoon over central to NW Iowa. This corroborates a westward shift in initiation trends in recent runs of the HRRR model. Current runs of the WoFS support two main areas of storms this afternoon with a cluster of storms over central WI through Sauk, Columbia, Green Lake, and Marquette Counties that will then track east to the lakeshore and a cluster that will move through southwest Wisconsin and east to the lake. These storms are projected to be supercells when they enter our area but may cluster into a line with eastward extent An 18z sounding from Davenport supports a very unstable environment supportive of 4000 J/kg held by a cap at 800mb. With the cap eroding to our west, explosive supercell development is expected, leading to the corridors of storms in southern WI mentioned in the previous paragraph. All hazards will be possible during the supercell mode, as mid level lapse rates ~8 C/km and hodograph curvature will support large hail, and curvature in the low levels of the hodographs and 3CAPE >150J/kg will support 0-1 km SRH >200 m2/s2 and low level stretching for tornado formation. As we head into the evening, there may be some potential for these storms to become linear, leading to a damaging wind and QLCS tornado threat, especially as the LLJ increases near sunset and lengthens the low level hodographs. Todays severe weather hazards are expected to be high end and should not be taken lightly. Have multiple ways to receive warnings. Storms are largely expected to be out of the area after 10PM, and may push a surface boundary through our area. If this happens, storms tomorrow will be less severe though flash flooding will still be a threat. Runs of the CAMs depict a west to east oriented line of storms that may set up along the WI/IL border during the late afternoon into the evening, capable of heavy rain. The wind, hail, and tornado threat with the storms tomorrow will be far less than today. CMiller && .LONG TERM... Issued 245 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Thursday through Tuesday: A shortwave trough will track across southern WI Thursday morning. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected with this feature, especially in the morning with deeper moisture still in place over the region. The chance for showers and thunderstorms will linger into the afternoon. As the deeper moisture departs during this time and we heat up, the low level lapse rates will increase to allow for instability (up to 1000 j/kg) to develop. A lake breeze should push inland and help to trigger some of the showers/storms. Look for the precip chances to exit by sunset. High pressure will pass through Thursday night and lows will dip into the 40s wherever the lake breeze hit, so bisecting southern WI from east to west. Friday morning and early afternoon look quiet, but we will be getting primed for the next system to arrive Friday late afternoon and night. Low pressure tracking across the northern Plains on Friday, in response to a high-amplitude upper trough, will cross Lake Superior Friday night. A strong cold front will slide across WI from west to east late Friday night through Saturday morning. Showers are thunderstorms are expected within the warm sector Friday afternoon/evening and also along the cold front. Scattered showers are possible behind the front during the day Saturday. Strong cold air advection will follow, so low temps should dip down to around or below freezing Saturday night on brisk westerly winds. The models dry out the atmosphere quickly, but if there happens to be any lingering moisture, the precip type would chance to flurries/snow. Brisk westerly winds will persist through Sunday. Finally, high pressure will dominate and give us dry weather through Monday or Tuesday. The weather pattern has a large degree of uncertainty beyond Monday between the models. Cronce && .AVIATION... Issued 722 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Thunderstorms will exit eastern and southern WI around midnight or 1 AM. There is a small chance of residual showers along the WI/IL border overnight and there is some indication that there could be shower activity all the way up to Madison and Milwaukee Saturday morning after dawn until mid morning. IFR ceilings and visibility may work into east central WI including Sheboygan overnight into Saturday morning on moist ENE winds off Lake Michigan. There is a lot of uncertainty about how far inland and southward these low ceilings and fog will expand. The next chance for more widespread showers and thunderstorms will arrive in southern WI during the late afternoon and taper off during late evening. Cronce && .MARINE... Issued 245 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A stationary front will remain parked over the middle third of the lake into tomorrow, slowly sinking south to the southern end of the lake by Thursday morning. Winds will remain southerly south of the front and modestly breezy, while winds north of the front will remain light and variable to northerly during this time. Today, severe storms are expected over the southern half to southern two thirds of the lake. Hail and gusty winds will be possible and waterspouts may occur with any tornadic storms from land that move over the waters. This will be most likely near the shoreline of Wisconsin and Illinois. The front will clear the lake as a cold front Friday, before low pressure of 29.6 inches approaches from the west. CMiller && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...Dense Fog Advisory...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565- LMZ567-LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872 until 7 AM Wednesday. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee  688 FXUS63 KILX 150029 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 729 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Periods of thunderstorms will continue through early Saturday. A 15-30% risk for severe weather exists this afternoon, tomorrow night, and late Friday into Saturday. The primary risks this afternoon will be large hail and damaging winds. - With any training storms, heavy rainfall may result in localized flooding. There is a level 2 of 5 (slight) risk for excessive rainfall this evening northeast of a roughly Galesburg to Mattoon line. - After a warm work week, conditions will turn sharply cooler on Saturday. There will be a low (20-30%) chance for frost Saturday night north of I-70, and a higher chance area-wide Sunday night. && .UPDATE... Issued at 728 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 We continue to closely monitor storm potential across central Illinois this evening, however, the threat remains best across northern Illinois in the near term. Locally, very unstable conditions (MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg) are in place as sampled by both 18Z and 00Z soundings, albeit strongly capped at 18Z around 800mb. While the cap has largely eroded, the early afternoon shortwave trough has left subsidence in its wake across central Illinois this evening, which when coupled with loss of peak daytime heating, has resulted in dramatic thinning of the cumulus field across the central part of the state. Given the lack of forcing, lowered PoPs considerably to around 20% across central Illinois through the remainder of the evening. If on the off chance a storm is able to develop (perhaps associated with outflow from northern storms or strengthening low level jet), shear and instability remain favorable for any storms to be severe. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 133 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ***** BOOM OR BUST CONVECTIVE SCENARIO THIS AFTERNOON ***** At 1pm, a warm airmass was in place across central and southeast Illinois with temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s. Gulf moisture continues to surge into the region on 15-20 (gusting to 30) mph southwest breezes, with dewpoints currently in the mid 60s. Consequently, the airmass is becoming increasingly unstable with RAP mesoanalysis indicating 1500-3000 J/kg SBCAPE. A capping inversion should prevent convective initiation unless and until a trigger lifts parcels to the LFC, which at this point remains unclear. Recent iterations of the HRRR and several members of the 12z REFS suggest that cap will break, resulting in explosive convective development and scattered severe weather across the CWA by mid afternoon. However, about 60-70% of CAMs keep the cap in place throughout the evening - maintaining warm and breezy conditions. The 18z raob confirms this notion, depicting a 3 degC capping inversion around 800mb which would take a lot of forcing to overcome. Given the parameter space for severe weather is forecast to become volatile over the next few hours, with SBCAPEs climbing to 2500-4000 J/kg, 700-500 lapse rates reaching 8-8.5C/km, and 45-55 kt effective bulk wind shear, any storms that form would pose a risk for severe weather, especially large hail where storm relative inflow (from the SSW/SW) is unimpeded in right- moving supercells (favored by clockwise curved hodographs). In addition, a few of the more bullish models show localized pockets of 3+ inches of rain falling in a few hours with training storms, which could result in some hydrological issues; accordingly, WPC has expanded the level 2 of 5 (slight) risk for excessive rainfall southward into much of our CWA. We'll be keeping a close eye on mesoscale trends this afternoon to assess the potential and issue any necessary warnings. ***** MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW ***** We'll likely (50-70% chance) have a few more storms overnight tonight as a weakening MCS lifts up into our area from northeast Missouri. We may end up needing some short-fused wind headline if the HRRR and RRFS are correct in their depiction of a meso-high feature impacting our west/southwest counties between 11pm and 4am, though confidence in this scenario is also low. The upper level low will slowly approach our area tomorrow, with continued warm advection ahead of it bringing waves of thunderstorms through the Prairie State. It appears instability will be a bit weaker tomorrow due to widespread clouds and scattered storms limiting surface heating, though the risk for severe weather will increase during the late evening or early overnight period (8pm-2am) west of I-55 where a few CAMs bring a weakening line of storms capable of locally severe winds. ***** DRY THURSDAY(?), STORMS RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT ***** A weak cold front will settle across the district on Thursday, bringing a moment's repose from the active pattern. However, the front will lift back north Thursday night into Friday, when instability will build ahead of a more potent kinematic system. As with today, we'll be in the warm sector on Friday, so a volatile thermodynamic environment would support severe weather if a trigger ruptures the capping inversion. Otherwise, more numerous showers and storms will pass through the area along the cold front sometime late Friday night or Saturday morning. While this is not a diurnally favorable period for severe weather, the strong forcing with the cold front and 45-55 kt deep layer shear could result in at least scattered severe winds if a mature line of storms enters our area from the west Friday night...or develops along the cold front in eastern Illinois on Saturday. ***** COOLER WEATHER RETURNS SATURDAY ***** A cold front will cross the area sometime on Saturday, with stiff west winds ushering in a more seasonably cool airmass for the second half of the weekend. NBM indicates a 30-50% chance low temperatures by Saturday night fall to 36 deg or cooler north of I-70, though winds should remain elevated to prevent frost formation. The better opportunity will be Sunday night, when NBM chances are 30-60% area- wide for sub 37 degF lows and winds should be calm with surface high pressure parked across the CWA. Protective action may be needed to prevent frost from damaging tender vegetation. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 603 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A trough of low pressure will generally remain draped across Iowa into Southern Wisconsin through the period. Across central Illinois, moderate S/SSW winds will continue through the period with gusts in the 20-30kt range much of the time. Unstable and unsettled conditions will be in place; however, with no notable forcing mechanism across the local area, specific timing of precip chances remains difficult to pin down. In the wake of an initial shortwave and round of storms now over IN, central IL is favored to remain dry this evening and overnight, but there remains a low (20%) chance for storms. Additional rounds of showers and storms are possible through the day Wednesday, but confidence in specifics remains low and anticipate that there will be timing adjustments as the picture becomes more clear. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...Bumgardner UPDATE...Deubelbeiss DISCUSSION...Bumgardner AVIATION...Deubelbeiss  039 FXUS62 KGSP 150032 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 832 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... An SPS for Increased Fire Danger has been issued for Wednesday from 12 to 8 PM for all of our North Carolina counties. The aviation discussion was updated for the 00Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Hot and dry through Saturday with high temperatures near daily records. A cold front may bring some rainfall to our area on Sunday, but any accumulation is likely to be too small to improve drought conditions. Near-normal temperatures expected early next week. 2. Fire weather concerns continue amid a dry and stagnant weather pattern. A Fire Danger Statement has been issued again for Wednesday afternoon for all of western North Carolina. Critically low relative humidity is likely to occur each of the next several afternoons. && .DISCUSSION... Key message 1: Hot and dry through Saturday with high temperatures near daily records. A cold front may bring some rainfall to our area on Sunday, but any accumulation is likely to be too small to improve drought conditions. Near-normal temperatures expected early next week. Anomalously deep ridge will remain centered over the coastal Southeast thru Thursday, with Bermuda High extending inland at the surface. 500mb heights gradually trend higher through early Thursday, peaking above the 95th percentile of climo, while southwesterly flow continues in low levels. Temps trend warmer thru Wednesday. Subsidence aloft will maintain a very dry profile, and lapse rates unfavorable for any deep diurnal convection anyway. A shortwave associated with a Midwest cyclone will lead to a brief period of height falls late Thursday and bring a very weak front up to the Appalachians, leading to somewhat more favorable lapse rates and moistening aloft near the TN/NC border around Thursday evening. Model QPF response is minimal but the thermodynamic changes can justify slight-chance PoPs along the immediate border; if precip develops at all only a couple hundredths of rain accum could be expected at that time. Though the passage of the shortwave will lead to lower heights over our area Friday, it turns winds downslope in low levels, and with no airmass change expected, that plus further modification should lead to still warmer max temps Friday afternoon. Warming trend should continue Saturday as the SW flow regime redevelops by then. NBM bias correction appears to be lowering the operational NBM max temps such that they fall below the 25th percentile of the NBM distribution, but even the operational NBM values are within a degree or two of daily records. Recent days we've tied daily max temp records, the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index for MaxT has peaked above 0.9 in our CWA, and the Shift-of-Tails has exceeded 1. These EFI/SoT criteria are met each day Wed-Sat, giving confidence that records could at least be tied at one or more of our climate sites (CLT, GSP, AVL) at some point in that period. High-min records could be in jeopardy also, though the generally clear and dry nights make that a bit more questionable with radiational cooling likely to be better than average. A substantially stronger trough will induce cyclogenesis over the northern Plains by Friday, and should bring a cold front across the lower MS Valley thru Saturday, and then across our CWA early Sunday. A narrow moisture plume is progged to accompany the front into our area along with modest upper divergence. The major global models basically have maintained consistency with their earlier runs in their depictions of precip along and east of the Appalachians; the 14/12z GFS did increase QPF slightly over the Piedmont though that model overall has been drier than concurrent runs of the ECMWF. Likewise EC Ensemble probs of any measurable (> 0.01") rainfall are higher than from the GEFS; neither ensemble suggests much potential for 0.10" for the Piedmont. Thus for now we continue to expect little to no improvement in either soil or fuel moisture from the front and thus no lasting relief from either drought or fire danger. Cooler, near to slightly below normal temperatures do look to result behind the front Sunday and Monday. A freeze is possible in some portions of the mountains Sunday night. Key message 2: Fire weather concerns continue amid a dry and stagnant weather pattern. A Fire Danger Statement has been issued again for Wednesday afternoon for all of western North Carolina. Critically low relative humidity is likely to occur each of the next several afternoons. Even with southwesterly flow continuing over the area from this afternoon through Thursday, the source airmass over the Gulf and Deep South is subsident and dry. Mixing depth will be limited by poor lapse rates aloft, though during peak heating the top of the boundary layer should reach into exceptionally dry midlevel air, so dewpoints should dip several degrees each afternoon. Coupled with unusually warm, early summer-like temperatures, relative humidity is likely to dip below 30 percent in many areas over the next few afternoons, particularly Wednesday and Thursday. Breezy afternoon winds may exhibit a few gusts to near 20 mph, and objective meteorological criteria for Increased Fire Danger statements could be met at least on a local scale. Even where not met objectively, the combination of near-critical RH and wind with dry vegetation will provide enough of a concern for potential wildfire development, so daily Fire Danger Products remain possible throughout the rest of this week. The Fire Danger Statement for the North Carolina Piedmont was in coordination with the North Carolina Forest Service and is in effect from Noon to 8 PM Wednesday. A Fire Danger Statement may be needed again for northeast Georgia for ongoing dry fuels and RH values getting close to the critical threshold of 30%. A Fire Danger Statement will likely be needed for all of western NC again Thursday, as RH may dip a little lower and winds are expected to be gustier out of the SW. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Dry and VFR expected thru the period, with periods of mainly thin cirrus. Winds will be light out of the SW overnight (except VRB becoming NNW at KAVL Wednesday morning). Then SW winds increase somewhat around midday to early aftn. Cannot rule out a few low-end gusts mid to late aftn, especially across the Upstate sites, but not as gusty as it was today. Outlook: VFR prevails the rest of the week and into the weekend. A few low VFR clouds, and perhaps stray SHRA, are possible late Thu or Thu night over the Appalachians. && .CLIMATE... RECORDS FOR 04-14 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 86 2006 36 1907 62 1922 24 1950 KCLT 89 1941 46 1907 69 1922 27 1950 KGSP 92 1916 48 1901 67 1922 22 1907 RECORDS FOR 04-15 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 89 1972 42 1943 64 1887 23 1907 KCLT 89 1936 46 1889 66 2006 28 1907 KGSP 91 2006 45 1913 69 1922 22 1907 RECORDS FOR 04-16 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 87 2006 42 1905 62 1945 26 1943 KCLT 89 2006 49 1890 64 1998 29 2008 1896 1991 1962 1945 KGSP 88 1888 54 1903 64 1945 24 1907 RECORDS FOR 04-17 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 89 1896 45 1890 63 1927 26 1904 KCLT 94 1896 47 1890 66 1896 30 2018 1949 KGSP 92 2006 51 1904 63 1927 25 1905 RECORDS FOR 04-18 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 90 1896 44 1921 60 1927 28 1905 1891 KCLT 93 1896 45 1983 66 1896 32 2001 KGSP 89 2002 51 1983 66 1927 28 1905 1967 && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059- 062>065-068>072-082-501>510. SC...None. && $$ ARK/JCW  840 FXUS61 KBTV 150035 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 835 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 307 PM EDT Tuesday... Rutland and Windsor counties are in a severe thunderstorm watch until 02 UTC and updated with enhanced wording. Reduced areal coverage of small hail/gusty wind wording across our central area, given the lack of instability and clouds. Also, added fog into the grids tonight. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 307 PM EDT Tuesday... 1. Monitoring the potential for strong to locally severe thunderstorms across Rutland and Windsor counties thru 8 PM this evening. 2. Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected Wednesday through Friday, as boundary remains draped across our forecast area. 3. Warm and breezy weather for Saturday, then rainy Saturday night through Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... As of 307 PM EDT Tuesday... KEY MESSAGE 1: Radar imagery shows clutter of moderate showers with embedded rumbles moving into the CPV, while Rutland/Windsor counties are in the warm sector with temps well into the mid/upper 70s. A sharp boundary remains draped acrs our cwa this aftn, which is separating temps in the 50s north to mid 70s south, along with favorable llvl convergence and turning of wind profiles. GOES-19 mid lvl water vapor imagery indicates embedded 700-500mb vort approaching the SLV attm, with strong synoptic scale ascent helping with the development of cooler/higher cloud tops. Meso-analysis shows sfc based CAPE values in the 500 to 800 J/kg over Rutland/Windsor Counties, while best 0-1km SRH and 0-3KM SRH values are located just north over central VT, closer to the stronger wind fields and llvl boundary. Given the limited areal coverage of instability and extensive cloud cover, feel the best potential for a strong to severe thunderstorm is over Rutland/Windsor Counties thru 7 PM this evening. Primary threat would be isolated damaging wind gusts, but there still is a non zero threat for a potential weak/isolated tornado acrs the southern CPV thru early this evening. Pw values are btwn 1.0 to 1.4" range, so localized heavy downpours are likely with rainfall amounts in the 0.25 to 0.75" range, but isolated spots near 1.0. Tonight, any shower activity should be east of our cwa by 9 PM with strong subsidence inversion developing behind s/w energy. This large area of drying evident on water vapor wl result in plenty of low level stratus clouds overnight with some areas of fog likely, especially in climo favored areas. Even some fog is possible in the CPV, as strong blocked flow develops with light north winds behind rain this evening, which wl act to saturate boundary layer conditions. Lows similar to last night in the mid 40s to mid 50s. KEY MESSAGE 2: Little change is expected in the large scale synoptic pattern acrs the Great Lakes into the NE CONUS for Weds thru Friday, as westerly flow aloft with embedded s/w's continue to impact our fa. Mid/upper lvl ridge prevails over the SE CONUS, while trof is lingering over central-eastern Canada, helping to enhance fast 700- 500mb flow acrs our cwa. Given limited amplification, expect stationary boundary to remained draped acrs our cwa, supporting warmest temps over Rutland/Windsor Counties and coolest near the International Border. Always challenging to determine amount of cloud cover/instability in the pattern, as soundings show plenty of llvl moisture below 850mb lingering on Weds and again on Thurs for most of the day. Greatest potential for a few embedded rumbles of thunder wl be Essex County, NY into central/southern VT each aftn. The latest trends have better probability of sfc based CAPE values >500 J/kg mostly south of our cwa on Weds, as deep layer moisture prevails acrs our cwa. Temps mainly in the mid 50s MSS to mid 70s VSF, but this could be high, as outflow from this evenings convection and clouds could produce cooler temps in the CT River Valley on Weds. Little change in temps are expected on Thurs as another embedded s/w and weak 1004mb low pres tracks along llvl thermal boundary to produce more showers and embedded thunderstorms. If more sun develops than anticipated temps could be well into the 70s on Thurs, especially given progged 925mb temps in the 12-17C range. Pw values in the 1.0 to 1.30" does support localized heavy downpours are possible, both Weds and Thurs afternoon, and given multiple rounds of precip, combined with some additional high elevation snowmelt, some sharp rises on central/northern waterways are likely thru Friday. No flooding is expected, but high flows wl need to be watched. KEY MESSAGE 3: The weather pattern remains active going into the weekend, but any threat for hazardous conditions remains low. The next system to impact our area will take the form of a strengthening surface low lifting northeastward through southeastern Canada. Ahead of the low, temperatures will be warmer than normal for Saturday amid the increasing southerly flow, especially over our western counties. High temps will be in the mid 60s to low 70s, with breezy south winds increasing through the day. The best window for increased south winds will occur late Saturday into Saturday night, before the steady rain begins. The south/southwest orientation of the low-level jet will favor gusty winds over the Saint Lawrence Valley, off the northern slopes of the Adirondacks, and channelled up the northern Champlain Valley, where gusts in the range of 20 to 30+ knots are possible...locally higher over the Saint Lawrence Valley. The cold front will move through from west to east Saturday night into Sunday, bringing a widespread soaking rainfall. The timing of the frontal passage will limit destabilization, thus limiting in turn thunderstorm potential. National Blend of Models thunderstorm probabilities cap out on Sunday under 10%. While our QPF forecast does not extend through Sunday, probabilistic data points to the most likely QPF range from Saturday night through Sunday between 0.25 and 0.5 inch, which would not create widespread hydro concerns. A look at the MMEFS ensemble river forecasts for the longer range show rises in rivers towards the end of the week into the weekend, but these rises remain well within banks. Given the multiple chances for rain coming up, we will continue to keep a close eye on rivers but no issues are currently anticipated. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 00Z Thursday...Changeable TAF conditions are expected. A few showers linger across the region, and the cold front shifting south has yet to completely cross south, but fog is quickly developing as cool, dense air replaces the warm, humid air. There may be some fluctuations in flight conditions for the next few hours as things may shuffle before the nighttime inversion strengthens, and then there will be widespread IFR ceilings or fog, possibly at all terminals this through 12z. Winds will likely remain variable through the period. After 12z, conditions should improve as the combination of sunshine and another system approaching from the west brings warmer conditions back to the region. Partial clearing will take place, with most the region returning to VFR. About 14z-17z, showers will lift northeast into the region, with the highest potential about 17z-23z. Precipitation rates will be light, so noted decreasing ceilings towards the end of the TAF cycle. Outlook... Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA. Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHRA. Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely SHRA. && .CLIMATE... As of 344 AM EDT Tuesday... Incoming warmer air is presently forecast to approach daily record values. The most likely dates for near or broken records will be today with mild overnight air leading to high minimum temperatures. Below are some of the daily records in jeopardy of being broken (current forecast at or within 3 degrees of the record). Record High Minimum Temperatures: April 14: KBTV: 54/2023 KPBG: 51/1964 KSLK: 47/1964 && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Taber DISCUSSION...Duell/Taber AVIATION...Haynes CLIMATE...NWS BTV  624 FXUS61 KCTP 150042 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 842 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Slight Risk severe weather outlook introduced for Wednesday north of PA Turnpike && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Summerlike warmth visits the region this week with near-record daily maxes and daily mins on tap for Wednesday and Thursday. 2) Several periods of showers and thunderstorms expected during the upcoming week, with the greatest amount of rainfall likely occurring across northern and western PA. Some storms may be severe, particularly on Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Summerlike warmth visits the region this week with near-record daily maxes and daily mins on tap for Wednesday and Thursday. Ensemble prediction systems are in good agreement showing a mean upper-level trough across the western CONUS, with downstream upper ridging taking hold from the Gulf states up the eastern seaboard. This will bring a notable warming trend, with daily highs ranging from the 70s-mid 80s across central PA from today onward. The latest forecast brings near-record temperatures across the region Wednesday morning through Friday morning, with lows both Wednesday and Thursday morning forecast to be warmer than our average highs this time of year (25 to 30 deg F above normal). Highs in the 70s and 80s will accompany lows in the 50s and 60s. Dewpoints will start to approach the 60F mark, so it will feel a bit humid but not overly uncomfortable. ---------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 2: Several periods of showers and thunderstorms expected during the upcoming week, with the greatest amount of rainfall likely occurring across northern and western PA. Some storms may be severe, particularly on Wednesday. In general for the workweek ahead, the storm track will run from SW to NE across the Great Lakes, with several waves of low pressure drifting into Ontario, CA. A frontal boundary will set up generally west to east across New York and keep unsettled weather in place across northwest PA in particular. This afternoon and evening, a few clusters of thunderstorms could tap into 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE to produce isolated pockets of damaging wind gusts. A lack of upper level forcing over Central PA means we will be dependent on surface-based organization associated with a potential MCS to produce a significant/sustained wind threat. The SPC issued an MCD around 2PM for a developing MCS over northeast Ohio. That complex will make its way into Central PA between 5 and 8PM, which is the most likely window for severe weather. The severe weather outlook climbs to Slight Risk for Wednesday, fueled in part by increasing low level heat and humidity as dewpoints rise to near 60F. Cool temps aloft will result in steep lapse rates with SBCAPE progged above 1000J/kg across much of central PA. With about 30 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear, discrete cells and clusters/linear segments will be possible. Over the course of the workweek, the probability for showers/storms will be highest in northwest PA. Locations that have been wet lately will continue to see more rain with 1-2 inches expected by Friday, while drought-stricken locations across the southeast part of our CWA will see less rainfall. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A lull in shower/thunderstorm activity is expected across much of central PA overnight as the shortwave that's fueling thunderstorm activity this evening exits offshore, with VFR likely (70-80%) to prevail at most airfields. With that said, KBFD is moderately likely (50-70% chance) to see MVFR ceilings between 05Z-18Z as greater low-level moisture will be in place. Moreover, scattered showers are expected to develop after 09Z, with a PROB30 for 4SM -TSRA included between 10Z-12Z based on the HRRR/RAP/NAM hinting at a weakening MCS passing overhead. VFR is likely (80% chance) to prevail at all airfields by 18Z Thursday, with KBFD possibly (35-45% chance) returning to MVFR by 22Z. Otherwise, the primary concern will be scattered showers and thunderstorms developing Thursday afternoon/evening, primarily after 22Z. PROB30s for -TSRA were included for our western airfields (KBFD/KJST/KAOO) between 22Z-00Z Friday, and our central airfields (KUNV/KIPT) between 23Z-00Z Friday as these showers/thunderstorms progress eastward, with timing based on the HREF. Lastly, a period of LLWS is possible around the Central Mountains (KJST/KAOO/KUNV) between 09Z-15Z as a shortwave passes to the north across the Great Lakes, with the HREF mean showing 850 mb winds approaching 40 kts during the diurnal minimum. The threat for LLWS is expected to diminish after 15Z as daytime heating mixes out the boundary layer. Outlook... Thu...VFR most of the time, but brief restrictions possible in hit and miss showers and thunderstorms, mainly across the north and west. Fri...Restrictions possible early, then improving to VFR in the afternoon. Sat-Sun...Restrictions in SHRA possible. && .CLIMATE... Record high daily maxes and mins are possible this week as summerlike warmth visits the region. Here's a look at the records as they stand right now, with a * indicating that the forecast is equal to or greater than the record. Record High Daily Max / Daily Min... For Harrisburg: April 15: 87* (1941) / 61* (2023) April 16: 89 (2002) / 63* (1941) April 17: 91 (2002) / 60* (2002) For Williamsport: April 15: 86 (1994) / 57* (2023) April 16: 90 (2002) / 55* (2023) April 17: 91 (2002) / 58* (1896) && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Banghoff KEY MESSAGES...Banghoff/Colbert DISCUSSION...Banghoff/Colbert AVIATION...Teare CLIMATE...Colbert  913 FXUS63 KSGF 150042 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 742 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Storms are expected to move into the area late this evening into the overnight hours from Oklahoma. There will be the potential for some severe storms mainly along and south of I-44 and along and west of Highway 65. - Additional severe weather potential Wednesday afternoon and evening, and again Friday afternoon and overnight into Saturday. - Marginal excessive rainfall concerns through the week in areas that see repeated strong storms and/or training precipitation. && .MESOSCALE... Issued at 742 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 An upper level trough is currently moving east across the Rocky Mountains region this evening. An area of surface low pressure is located across western Kansas with a dry line extending from central Kansas to the southwest into western Texas early this evening. Thunderstorms have developed along the dry line across central Oklahoma into Texas this afternoon and evening. Further north across Kansas, the cap never weakened enough for storm development especially with the better lift to the west with the upper level trough so storms have not developed across Kansas. A few showers have developed but storms have just not been able to develop further north. Confidence is now low that northern storms will develop as the cap will continue to strengthen this evening across east central Kansas into west central Missouri. Therefore attention turns to the activity to the southwest in Oklahoma. Coverage in storms is increasing across Oklahoma and a cluster of storms is expected to develop on move northeast this evening into tonight. The upper level trough will move east tonight and an area of MLCAPE of 750 to around 1000 J/kg with a weak cap will be in place ahead of the storms to the northeast into extreme southeastern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri late this evening into the early overnight hours generally south of I-44 and west of Highway 65. Instability will remain weakly capped to the east into south central Missouri into Wednesday morning but the instability will decrease to 500 J/kg or less to the east as the cluster of storms moves out well ahead of the better upper level support to the west. Therefore, the cluster/line of storms across south central Oklahoma and north central Taxes is expected to move east northeast basically along I-44 into the area late this evening, generally after 10pm into the overnight hours. Overall the storms should be weakening as they move into the area but a scattered damaging wind risk and an isolated quarter size hail risk will occur into the far southwestern portions of the area, again along and south of I-44 and west of Hwy 65. Low level shear will be increase some with a low level jet developing, but the line of storms may out run the better shear. Therefore, the tornado risk is low, but there could be a low chance for a brief tornado across the far southwestern portions of the area if mesovorts can develop, but the risk is decreasing for our area. As this complex moves east across the area overnight it will be more showers with some embedded thunder as it moves east across central Missouri. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 256 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 It's breezy out there today as the trough pushes into our area and the surface pressure gradient remains tight. Southwest winds have been observed at 20-25 mph with gusts 30-35 mph. Temperatures have climbed into the upper 70s to low 80s despite a good amount of cloud cover. There are a few hours of warming left, so we're still on track to reach the predicted highs in the 80s today. The low encroaching on western Missouri has an attendant dryline that extends south and west across western Oklahoma and down into Texas. Convective initiation is expected along this dryline in the next couple of hours. Headed into the evening, these initial supercells are expected to line up as they move east-northeast across Kansas and Oklahoma on their way to us. The northeastern-most end of the line will reach us first, and may feature some development out ahead in west-central Missouri as early as 5-6 p.m. The main line looks to reach our area closer to 7-8 p.m., moving generally west-to-east with a northeast component. These supercells will look very scary as they move through Oklahoma, where they will be riding a moisture/instability gradient and tapping into all the moisture and warmth that has streamed into the region with the last several days of southerly flow. However, as they move eastward into our area and out of the better instability, they will become less organized/discrete. They are still very much expected to be severe, just not as severe as what may be seen in central Oklahoma, so keep this in mind when monitoring upstream. The stronger/more discrete cells in the line will be capable of very large hail up to 2-3", damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph, and tornadoes (particularly in our Kansas counties). With the line as a whole/line segments, hail up to quarters and damaging winds will be possible. Again, storms decrease in severity as they move east due to the loss of daytime heating and storms quickly gobbling up the favorable environment. The area with the highest risk for these hazards (SPC Slight risk, level 2/5) is roughly the northwestern half of the CWA, or a Cassville-Springfield- Lebanon-Vichy line. The severe risk will come to an end in the early morning hours, but there will be little break in the rainfall as a cold front impinging on the dryline from the west continues to force precipitation in eastern Oklahoma that tracks northeast into SWMO. Wednesday will be rainy and dreary the majority of the day. The dryline/cold front situation makes a final push Wednesday night, and should have just enough oomph from 1000-3000 J/Kg of MLCAPE, 30-50 kts of shear, steep lapse rates, moisture, and all a severe storm's favorite things to bring another round of severe convection in the afternoon and evening. All severe hazards will be possible with this activity as well, and the risk will end after midnight. With the multiple rounds of rain, one might wonder about the flash flood risk. While there is a marginal risk for excessive rainfall Tuesday and Wednesday, given that the expected storm total QPF forecast over the course of two days still remains lower than 1-hr flash flood guidance, it would take hours worth of training and/or strong cells to create a flash flood hazard. This risk is considered secondary to the hail/wind/tornado risk both days. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 256 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The cold front lifts to the north rather than moving through Wednesday night, keeping us in the southerly flow regime for the time being. Rain will gradually end from west to east Thursday morning, and we'll enjoy some sunshine in the afternoon with highs in the low 80s. The winds settle down as well, with no disturbances nearby for the first time in several days. Friday, a deep trough finally pushes a cold front through the area. This looks like a very classic severe setup, and we are included in an Enhanced equivalent (level 3/5) outlook from the SPC. Based on the expected environmental conditions, supercells capable of large hail and tornadoes are expected for our area, which grow upscale into a squall line as they progress toward the Mississippi valley. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 520 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Cumulus clouds have developed across the region with cloud bases around 3500 to 5000ft this afternoon and will remain over the area this evening. Mid and high level clouds will also increase across the area this evening. Convection is developing in north central Texas and south central Oklahoma early this evening and additional convection development is expected to develop across Kansas this evening. This activity will move northeast this evening and tonight. Convection could move into the area as early as the mid to late evening hours, with additional convection possible tonight into Wednesday. Another system will then start to move east on the area on Wednesday with additional storms expected across the area possibly as early as Wednesday afternoon but more likely Wednesday evening just after this TAF period. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Record High Temperatures: April 14: KVIH: 87/2006 KUNO: 86/2024 April 15: KUNO: 84/9999 April 17: KSGF: 87/1937 KVIH: 86/2004 KUNO: 87/2006 Record High Minimum Temperatures: April 14: KSGF: 67/2006 April 15: KSGF: 63/2006 April 16: KSGF: 66/1963 April 17: KSGF: 66/1976 && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ MESOSCALE...Wise SHORT TERM...Nelson LONG TERM...Nelson AVIATION...Wise CLIMATE...Camden  169 FXUS61 KPHI 150048 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 848 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Increased chances for showers or a thunderstorm into the evening. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible later this afternoon into this evening which may be capable of producing damaging winds north and west of the I-95 corridor. Another threat for isolated thunderstorms is possible later Wednesday into Wednesday night. 2. Potentially record breaking warmth is possible this week with very warm and above normal temperatures continuing through the upcoming weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1....Isolated showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening may be capable of producing damaging winds north and west of the I-95 corridor. Another threat for isolated thunderstorms is possible later Wednesday into Wednesday night. A remnant MCS that was across the Great Lakes earlier has weakened while crossing through Pennsylvania. Still, the diurnal heating from earlier has created numerous showers and a few thunderstorms which have moves across western/central PA earlier this evening. While the rains have started to weaken, we have upped POPs a bit for the rest of the evening and added a chances for a thunderstorms too. The threat for severe weather is low however, just a few downpours and some gusty winds possible. Any convective activity should wane through the evening hours and conclude overnight. For Wednesday, there is another chance for isolated severe weather across portions of eastern PA and northwest NJ where a Marginal Risk is now in place for some isolated damaging winds and small hail. However, it is worth noting that this threat is highly conditional depending on how convection evolves from upstream and with any remaining boundaries. Much of the latest available forecast guidance depicts a MCS tracking across the Great Lakes region tonight before fizzling near the Appalachian region. Similar to today, diurnal heating will likely contribute to some reinvigorating of convection in the afternoon. For now, the threat for severe weather is similar today, but will ultimately depend on how upstream convection evolves. Forecast guidance notoriously struggles with these types of scenarios, so confidence on Wednesday's threat is low. KEY MESSAGE 2...Potentially record breaking warmth is possible this week with very warm and above normal temperatures continuing through the upcoming weekend. High confidence remains in early season heat with a significant warm up expected through the middle of the week and into the upcoming weekend with the potential for record breaking temperatures. With high pressure situated over the Atlantic Ocean and the warm front well north of the Mid-Atlantic region, continued warmth is expected. Very warm air aloft coupled with warm air at surface levels will allow temperatures to be as much as 15 to 30 degrees above average this week. As of now, forecast highs are in the mid/upper 80s to low 90s on both Wednesday and Thursday, though Thursday may be a touch cooler due to more cloud cover. See Climate Section below regarding potential record breaking temperatures through Thursday. At this point, temperatures are expected to reach at least 90F for much urban corridor on Wednesday and Thursday. This would be first 90 degree day of the year and first since early September. As is typical in spring though, temperatures along/near the coast will be significantly cooler due to the colder sea surface temperatures and diurnal sea breeze. While a weak surface front passes through early Friday morning, temperatures will stay well above normal through the weekend with temps mainly in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Temperatures finally appear to cool back toward seasonable levels early next week. Not only will it be very warm over the course of the week, but it will also remain mainly dry. This is of elevated concern for ongoing drought/abnormally dry conditions over much of the area, which will likely only get worse after this week. A few weak disturbances will pass by to the north through Thursday, but other than a stray shower or thunderstorm each afternoon north of the I-95 corridor, no significant rainfall is expected. Flow will generally be out of the southwest, which is more favorable in terms of moisture, which will likely hinder the fire weather concerns this week. Winds will generally be light as well, as another limiting factor. So, even though it will be warm and dry, fire weather concerns are minimal. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Overnight...Prevailing VFR. A slight chance of showers for most terminals except KMIV/KACY with VCSH in the 00Z TAFs, but confidence in occurrence remains low. Some fog is possible, if any rain occurs, but have left this mention out as well. Southwest winds around 4-8 kt. Moderate confidence. Wednesday...VFR. A slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm for the Lehigh Valley and I-95 terminals late in the late afternoon, mainly after 21Z. Southwest winds around 10-15 kt. Moderate confidence. Outlook... Wednesday night through Friday...Prevailing VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms (~20-50%) in the afternoon and evening hours each day for the Lehigh Valley and I-95 terminals. Friday night through Sunday...VFR. A few showers possible through the weekend, otherwise no significant weather. && .MARINE... No marine headlines are in effect through Wednesday. South-southwest winds around 10-15 kt with gusts around 20 kt are expected with seas around 2-4 feet. Fair weather. Outlook... Wednesday night through Saturday night...No marine headlines expected. Winds generally remain below 20 kt with seas around 2-4 feet. A few showers possible. Sunday...Small Craft Advisories possible due to wind gusts around 25 kt and seas around 3-5 feet. Showers likely. && .CLIMATE... Warm temperatures well above normal are expected for the upcoming week. Wednesday is currently projected to be the warmest day, though Tuesday through Thursday could see some records broken depending on the site. Below are record highs and record high minimum temperatures for April 14th through April 16th. Record High Temperatures April 14 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 88/2023 AC Airport (ACY) 86/1945 AC Marina (55N) 90/1941 Georgetown (GED) 87/1977 Mount Pocono (MPO) 84/2023 Philadelphia (PHL) 91/1941 Reading (RDG) 90/1941 Trenton (TTN) 89/1941 Wilmington (ILG) 87/1941 Record Warmest Low Temperatures April 14 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 61/2014 AC Airport (ACY) 63/2023 AC Marina (55N) 60/2023 Georgetown (GED) 65/2019 Mount Pocono (MPO) 56/2014 Philadelphia (PHL) 62/2014 Reading (RDG) 64/2014 Trenton (TTN) 62/2014 Wilmington (ILG) 60/2014 Record High Temperatures April 15 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 86/1941 & 1994 AC Airport (ACY) 90/1967 AC Marina (55N) 86/1941 Georgetown (GED) 86/1960 & 2024 Mount Pocono (MPO) 82/1941 Philadelphia (PHL) 88/1941 Reading (RDG) 86/1941 & 1994 Trenton (TTN) 87/1994 Wilmington (ILG) 86/1896 Record Warmest Low Temperatures April 15 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 59/2002 AC Airport (ACY) 61/2002 AC Marina (55N) 59/2006 Georgetown (GED) 65/2002 Mount Pocono (MPO) 58/2002 Philadelphia (PHL) 64/2002 Reading (RDG) 64/1938 Trenton (TTN) 63/2002 Wilmington (ILG) 62/2002 Record High Temperatures April 16 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 90/2012 AC Airport (ACY) 89/2002 AC Marina (55N) 88/2002 Georgetown (GED) 89/2002 Mount Pocono (MPO) 85/2002 Philadelphia (PHL) 90/2002 Reading (RDG) 90/2012 Trenton (TTN) 91/2012 Wilmington (ILG) 92/1896 Record Warmest Low Temperatures April 16 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 60/1941 AC Airport (ACY) 62/2002 AC Marina (55N) 64/2002 Georgetown (GED) 65/2012 Mount Pocono (MPO) 56/2002 Philadelphia (PHL) 62/2002 Reading (RDG) 65/1941 Trenton (TTN) 62/2002 Wilmington (ILG) 63/2002 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DeSilva/po AVIATION...DeSilva/po MARINE...DeSilva  807 FXAK68 PAFC 150048 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 448 PM AKDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Friday)... A beautiful April day is underway across Southcentral Alaska as upper-level ridging amplifies. Temperatures continue to warm in many locations to near the warmest they've been all calendar year, with many locations in the mid 40s as of this afternoon. Starting tomorrow, a series of shortwave troughs amid southwest flow aloft will begin moving atop the ridge and into Southcentral. The first front and associated precipitation reaches Kodiak Island tonight before then spreading across the Kenai Peninsula and the rest of the area during the day on Wednesday. Lingering cold air will keep most precipitation as snow during the morning hours, but expect lingering precipitation, mainly in the Susitna Valley, to mix with rain in the afternoon. The Copper Valley will also get snow in the afternoon, so expect a quick drop in temperatures in the afternoon for areas under snow showers. Amounts will be very light with most locations outside of the mountains not expecting more than a few hundredths to one tenth of an inch liquid equivalent or trace to an inch of snow. Precipitation looks to diminish Wednesday night as ridging builds in wake of this system, but another front, tied to a more potent low in the eastern Bering, shifts into Southcentral again on Thursday and Thursday night. There remains some timing differences with various model runs, but Kodiak Island looks to get the next wave of precip sometime Thursday morning before the rest of Southcentral gets it later into the day and into the overnight period. Snow levels will be similar to the previous day's system, though perhaps a few hundred feet higher initially due to the timing. Locations at elevation should remain most/all snow with this next wave. Precipitation will linger for the Prince William Sound region and many of the mountain ranges across Southcentral Alaska as the upper-level trough opens up and shifts east on Friday. Lower elevations, Anchorage included, may receive light additional precip. Snow accumulation with this late Thursday-Friday will be highest across the Thompson Pass area, where 6+ inches may accrue. Mentasta Pass, Isabel Pass, McCarthy Rd, and other higher elevation areas will likely receive accumulating snow as well before tapering off somewhat on Saturday. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:)... An elongated low pressure system covering much of the Bering Sea is currently sending a front into the coast of Southwest Alaska. Between 1 and 3 inches of snow is expected as precipitation moves inland over the region through Wednesday. Additional shortwaves will drift in behind the front, allowing for mixed precipitation in the Bering and the Southwest Mainland through Friday morning. Farther west, rain showers and elevated westerly winds will persist for the Aleutian Chain. A strong North Pacific low looks to rise into the western Aleutians late Friday morning. Strong winds and moderate to heavy precipitation will spread over the western and central Bering Sea through the day Friday before deteriorating conditions for mainland Alaska through the weekend. Models are trending toward the stronger solution in regards to this system, so stay tuned as we track its progression into our forecast area. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)... An active pattern will persist from Friday through Monday as a broad low-pressure system remains anchored over the Bering Sea. A strong North Pacific storm moving into the region on Friday will bring heavy rain and gale-force winds to the Western and Central Aleutians, while moisture spreads across Southcentral Alaska, maintaining cloudy skies and precipitation through Saturday. By Sunday and into Monday, the system will pull cooler air back into the region, likely turning precipitation into a rain-snow mix for the Alaskan Peninsula and Southwest coast. While specific timing remains a little uncertain, the overall pattern suggests continued unsettled weather for both Southcentral and Southwest Alaska with temperatures hovering near seasonal averages. -DD && .AVIATION... PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. Clouds above 5000 ft roll back in by the morning. Light snow showers will be possible late morning through early afternoon with dips in ceilings to MVFR. && $$  134 FXUS63 KSGF 150056 CCA AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 742 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Storms are expected to move into the area late this evening into the overnight hours from Oklahoma. There will be the potential for some severe storms mainly along and south of I-44 and along and west of Highway 65. - Additional severe weather potential Wednesday afternoon and evening, and again Friday afternoon and overnight into Saturday. - Marginal excessive rainfall concerns through the week in areas that see repeated strong storms and/or training precipitation. && .MESOSCALE... Issued at 742 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 An upper level trough is currently moving east across the Rocky Mountains region this evening. An area of surface low pressure is located across western Kansas with a dry line extending from central Kansas to the southwest into western Texas early this evening. Thunderstorms have developed along the dry line across central Oklahoma into Texas this afternoon and evening. Further north across Kansas, the cap never weakened enough for storm development especially with the better lift to the west with the upper level trough so storms have not developed across Kansas. A few showers have developed but storms have just not been able to develop further north. Confidence is now low that northern storms will develop as the cap will continue to strengthen this evening across east central Kansas into west central Missouri. Therefore attention turns to the activity to the southwest in Oklahoma. Coverage in storms is increasing across Oklahoma and a cluster of storms is expected to develop on move northeast this evening into tonight. The upper level trough will move east tonight and an area of MLCAPE of 750 to around 1000 J/kg with a weak cap will be in place ahead of the storms to the northeast into extreme southeastern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri late this evening into the early overnight hours generally south of I-44 and west of Highway 65. Instability will remain weakly capped to the east into south central Missouri into Wednesday morning but the instability will decrease to 500 J/kg or less to the east as the cluster of storms moves out well ahead of the better upper level support to the west. Therefore, the cluster/line of storms across south central Oklahoma and north central Texas is expected to move east northeast basically along I-44 into the area late this evening, generally after 10pm into the overnight hours. Overall the storms should be weakening as they move into the area but a scattered damaging wind risk and an isolated quarter size hail risk will occur into the far southwestern portions of the area, again along and south of I-44 and west of Hwy 65. Low level shear will be increase some with a low level jet developing, but the line of storms may out run the better shear. Therefore, the tornado risk is low, but there could be a low chance for a brief tornado across the far southwestern portions of the area if mesovorts can develop, but the risk is decreasing for our area. As this complex moves east across the area overnight it will be more showers with some embedded thunder as it moves east across central Missouri. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 256 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 It's breezy out there today as the trough pushes into our area and the surface pressure gradient remains tight. Southwest winds have been observed at 20-25 mph with gusts 30-35 mph. Temperatures have climbed into the upper 70s to low 80s despite a good amount of cloud cover. There are a few hours of warming left, so we're still on track to reach the predicted highs in the 80s today. The low encroaching on western Missouri has an attendant dryline that extends south and west across western Oklahoma and down into Texas. Convective initiation is expected along this dryline in the next couple of hours. Headed into the evening, these initial supercells are expected to line up as they move east-northeast across Kansas and Oklahoma on their way to us. The northeastern-most end of the line will reach us first, and may feature some development out ahead in west-central Missouri as early as 5-6 p.m. The main line looks to reach our area closer to 7-8 p.m., moving generally west-to-east with a northeast component. These supercells will look very scary as they move through Oklahoma, where they will be riding a moisture/instability gradient and tapping into all the moisture and warmth that has streamed into the region with the last several days of southerly flow. However, as they move eastward into our area and out of the better instability, they will become less organized/discrete. They are still very much expected to be severe, just not as severe as what may be seen in central Oklahoma, so keep this in mind when monitoring upstream. The stronger/more discrete cells in the line will be capable of very large hail up to 2-3", damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph, and tornadoes (particularly in our Kansas counties). With the line as a whole/line segments, hail up to quarters and damaging winds will be possible. Again, storms decrease in severity as they move east due to the loss of daytime heating and storms quickly gobbling up the favorable environment. The area with the highest risk for these hazards (SPC Slight risk, level 2/5) is roughly the northwestern half of the CWA, or a Cassville-Springfield- Lebanon-Vichy line. The severe risk will come to an end in the early morning hours, but there will be little break in the rainfall as a cold front impinging on the dryline from the west continues to force precipitation in eastern Oklahoma that tracks northeast into SWMO. Wednesday will be rainy and dreary the majority of the day. The dryline/cold front situation makes a final push Wednesday night, and should have just enough oomph from 1000-3000 J/Kg of MLCAPE, 30-50 kts of shear, steep lapse rates, moisture, and all a severe storm's favorite things to bring another round of severe convection in the afternoon and evening. All severe hazards will be possible with this activity as well, and the risk will end after midnight. With the multiple rounds of rain, one might wonder about the flash flood risk. While there is a marginal risk for excessive rainfall Tuesday and Wednesday, given that the expected storm total QPF forecast over the course of two days still remains lower than 1-hr flash flood guidance, it would take hours worth of training and/or strong cells to create a flash flood hazard. This risk is considered secondary to the hail/wind/tornado risk both days. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 256 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The cold front lifts to the north rather than moving through Wednesday night, keeping us in the southerly flow regime for the time being. Rain will gradually end from west to east Thursday morning, and we'll enjoy some sunshine in the afternoon with highs in the low 80s. The winds settle down as well, with no disturbances nearby for the first time in several days. Friday, a deep trough finally pushes a cold front through the area. This looks like a very classic severe setup, and we are included in an Enhanced equivalent (level 3/5) outlook from the SPC. Based on the expected environmental conditions, supercells capable of large hail and tornadoes are expected for our area, which grow upscale into a squall line as they progress toward the Mississippi valley. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 520 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Cumulus clouds have developed across the region with cloud bases around 3500 to 5000ft this afternoon and will remain over the area this evening. Mid and high level clouds will also increase across the area this evening. Convection is developing in north central Texas and south central Oklahoma early this evening and additional convection development is expected to develop across Kansas this evening. This activity will move northeast this evening and tonight. Convection could move into the area as early as the mid to late evening hours, with additional convection possible tonight into Wednesday. Another system will then start to move east on the area on Wednesday with additional storms expected across the area possibly as early as Wednesday afternoon but more likely Wednesday evening just after this TAF period. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Record High Temperatures: April 14: KVIH: 87/2006 KUNO: 86/2024 April 15: KUNO: 84/9999 April 17: KSGF: 87/1937 KVIH: 86/2004 KUNO: 87/2006 Record High Minimum Temperatures: April 14: KSGF: 67/2006 April 15: KSGF: 63/2006 April 16: KSGF: 66/1963 April 17: KSGF: 66/1976 && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ MESOSCALE...Wise SHORT TERM...Nelson LONG TERM...Nelson AVIATION...Wise CLIMATE...Camden