942 FXUS61 KLWX 150101 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 901 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updates to precipitation chances near the MD/PA line. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Near-record April heat through Thursday as elevated fire weather conditions persist through Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Near-record April heat through Thursday as elevated fire weather conditions persist through Saturday. A perturbation in the westerly flow aloft is resulting in scattered thunderstorms across the northern quarter of the forecast area this evening. While shear is sufficient for organization, thermodynamic profiles have been a limiting factor for more robust thunderstorms. With nightfall and cooling from the first round of convection a few hours ago, the current storms (and subsequent severe threat) seem to be on a weakening trend. However, subcloud layers are still dry (ceiling heights around 8kft), so gusty winds remain possible. Most of this activity should exit or dissipate by midnight. Any remnants from the thunderstorms over Ohio should remain north. Tonight's forecast lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s are near the average daytime highs for mid April. Near-record April heat and mostly dry conditions are forecast Wednesday and Thursday. Highs will reach the upper 80s to low 90s across the area both days. Humidity will be on the low side, so heat indices are going to be the same (or lower) than air temperatures. Still, those who are sensitive to heat should take steps to avoid heat-related illnesses. There will be showers and thunderstorms in PA tomorrow as another front approaches, but all of the guidance keeps convection north of our area for tomorrow. The next front arrives Thursday night into Friday, but it won't bring any relief from the heat as temps will still be in the 80s Friday. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible early Friday, but rain amounts will be meager at less than 0.10" for any given area. Saturday looks to be the last day of well above normal temps before a stronger cold front arrives. A deep upper-level trough centered over the northern Great Plains will form later this week, and will begin to make its way towards the East Coast by late this weekend. The 12z model runs are currently well aligned on a Sunday timeframe for a strong cold front stemming from this trough to track through the Mid-Atlantic. After several days of near-record temperatures in the 80s and 90s, expect a sharp drop in daily highs once this system moves through, with early model runs suggesting a 10-20 degree overall drop in temperatures between Saturday and Monday. Widespread rainfall is likely to accompany this front; thunderstorm chances also return at this time, with ensemble runs showing some convective signatures and NCAR's AI Convective Hazards forecast currently placing the area under a 15-30% likelihood for convection on Sunday. High pressure moves into the area afterwards, allowing for cooler temperatures to persist for a bit once this system moves offshore. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are straddling the MD/PA line this evening. The strongest thunderstorms will likely avoid the terminals, but some showers could affect MRB, BWI, and MTN. There could also be wind shifts due to outflow. The second half of the night will be dry with light southwest to west winds. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through at least Saturday morning. Breezy conditions possible each afternoon, with south to southwest winds gusting around 20-25 knots for several hours. A few thunderstorms are possible this evening, and again Thursday night into Friday, but coverage and impacts are forecast to be low. && .MARINE... Extended the Small Craft Advisory until midnight for the wider mid-Bay waters where some southwesterly gusts to around 20 kt continue this evening. Otherwise light winds should prevail through the night. SCA conditions are possible each afternoon through Saturday as southerly channeling produces a few hours of wind gusts around 20 knots. Outside of that, winds remain generally at or below 10 knots. Some thunderstorms will be possible Thursday night into Friday, then again over the weekend as cold fronts track through the area. && .FIRE WEATHER... Elevated fire weather conditions are likely to continue across most of the area through Saturday. Each afternoon will bring well above normal temperatures in the 80s to low 90s, southwest winds gusting around 20-25 mph, and minimum RH values around 25-35 percent. Fire weather SPSs will likely be needed each day, with coordination from local fire partners and surrounding NWS offices to hone in on areas that are most sensitive. The ongoing lack of rain is going to continue to dry fine fuels, with fuel moistures decreasing a bit each successive day. Local showers and thunderstorms which have occurred across portions of northern Maryland and eastern West Virginia may provide a bit of reprieve in those areas. Thursday looks to be the most fire sensitive day due to a combination of RH values around 20-30 percent and wind gust around 20-25 mph in the afternoon. There is the potential for very dry air to mix down to the surface, this could possibly drop RH values below 20 percent in some areas. If these low RH values come to fruition, it is possible we could be close to Red Flag conditions. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday night into Friday, but coverage will be too low for any beneficial wetting rain. A strong cold front is set to cross the area Sunday, with cooler temperatures into next week. However, there is uncertainty regarding whether most of the area sees a wetting rain, it could be limited rainfall from this front. && .CLIMATE... Many daily records are likely to be broken this week, for both high temperatures and warm low temperatures. Some stations could tie or set their all-time high temperature and warm low temperature records for the month of April. April 14 LocationRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW Washington-National (DCA)91F (1960) 65F (2014) Washington-Dulles (IAD) 87F (1960) 63F (2014) Baltimore (BWI) 91F (1941) 65F (2018) Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 90F (1960) 67F (2018) Martinsburg (MRB) 87F (1960) 62F (2014) Charlottesville (CHO) 90F (1945) 67F (1899) Annapolis(NAK) 90F (1941) 65F (1977) Hagerstown (HGR) 86F (2024) 64F (2014) April 15 LocationRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW Washington-National (DCA)89F (1941) 65F (2023) Washington-Dulles (IAD) 87F (1967) 62F (2023) Baltimore (BWI) 88F (1941) 65F (1941) Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 92F (2024) 67F (1960) Martinsburg (MRB) 90F (1941) 63F (1967) Charlottesville (CHO) 92F (2024) 68F (1941) Annapolis(NAK) 91F (1941) 68F (1994) Hagerstown (HGR) 85F (1960) 61F (2023) April 16 LocationRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW Washington-National (DCA)92F (2002) 65F (2017) Washington-Dulles (IAD) 91F (2002) 63F (2017) Baltimore (BWI) 90F (2012) 66F (1941) Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 91F (2012) 65F (2012) Martinsburg (MRB) 90F (2002) 63F (2017) Charlottesville (CHO) 92F (1976) 67F (1941) Annapolis(NAK) 89F (2017) 70F (1994) Hagerstown (HGR) 88F (2002) 62F (2002) April 17 LocationRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW Washington-National (DCA) 95F (2002)65F (2002) Washington-Dulles (IAD) 93F (2002)59F (2024) Baltimore (BWI) 93F (2002)66F (1896) Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 95F (2002)66F (1976) Martinsburg (MRB) 93F (2002)60F (1941) Charlottesville (CHO) 94F (1976)65F (1976) Annapolis(NAK) 90F (1976)68F (1994) Hagerstown (HGR) 90F (2002)64F (2002) All-Time April Record Highs: Washington-National (DCA)95F 4/17/2002, 4/18/1976, 4/23/1960 4/27/1915 Washington-Dulles (IAD) 93F 4/6/2010, 4/17/2002, 4/25/1960 Baltimore (BWI) 94F 4/25/1960, 4/23/1960, 4/20/1941, 4/18/1896 Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 98F 4/26/1990, 4/22/1985 Martinsburg (MRB) 96F 4/21/1941 Charlottesville (CHO) 98F 4/24-25/1925 Annapolis(NAK) 95F 4/20/1941 Hagerstown (HGR) 94F 4/6/2010, 4/18/1976, 4/26/1915 All-Time April Record Warm-Lows: Washington-National (DCA)70F 4/29/2017 Washington-Dulles (IAD) 68F 4/27/2011 Baltimore (BWI) 70F 4/19/1896 Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 76F 4/26/1990 Martinsburg (MRB) 69F 4/19/2025 Charlottesville (CHO) 72F 4/26/1915 Annapolis(NAK) 70F 4/28/1994, 4/16/1994, 4/18/1896 Hagerstown (HGR) 69F 4/27/2009 && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ534-543. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADS/KRR/SRT AVIATION...ADS/KRR MARINE...ADS/KRR  579 FXZS60 NSTU 150104 AFDPPG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pago Pago AS 204 PM SST Tue Apr 14 2026 .Short term... Satellite imagery has shown a mix of sun and clouds over the American Samoa islands, with only a passing isolated shower over some areas. WFO American Samoa recorded winds between 10 and 15 mph this morning, but is slowly decreasing this afternoon. Overall, there is no severe weather forecast for the rest of the week. Currently, there is a weak trough over the region. The trough is forecast to remain weak with scattered (30 to 40% chance) of passing showers through Friday. Flash flooding is not expected from these showers, if rainfall occurs. Otherwise, winds are to remain light and variable through the end of the week with temperatures slightly above normal. .Long term... A ridge of high pressure, centered to the southwest of American Samoa, is forecast move over the islands this weekend and to remain through early next week. This will likely give more sun than clouds during the day. Temperatures are expected to fall to average throughout this time with only a slight risk of passing showers. For the next 7 days, there is no risk for tropical development near American Samoa. && .Marine... A moderate easterly breeze (10 to 15 knots) remained over the American Samoa coastal waters last night and throughout the morning. Seas fell below the Small Craft Advisory levels but seas remained fairly choppy with elevated swell to keep seas around 7 feet before slowly easing late this morning and early afternoon. However, winds continue decreasing to a gentle easterly breeze for this evening and Wednesday (5 to 10 knots) and becoming light and variable on Thursday and Friday. Since we have decreasing winds and weakening swell, seas are to be ideal for Wednesday through Friday as waves are to subside to around 4 to 5 feet. As a ridge of high pressure moves over the region by Friday evening, expect similar conditions for the weekend. && .PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE && $$ LaPlante  464 FXUS66 KMFR 150106 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 606 PM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .UPDATE...Aviation Discussion updated. && .DISCUSSION...A shortwave ridge passing over northern California and southern Oregon will produce calm, mostly clear weather for the rest of today. Daytime highs will warm slightly from Monday's temperatures, but clouds will steadily increase across the area as the next system approaches. As this cold front approaches, some coastal showers will begin to move into the area this evening, which we can already see in Radar imagery offshore this afternoon. More widespread rainfall is expected on Wednesday. Coastal cities look to see 1 to 1.5 inches of rainfall, while coastal ranges could see around 2 inches. Rainfall in the Umpqua Valley is forecast to be between 0.75 and 1 inch, with other valleys and basins seeing lower amounts through Wednesday. With snow levels expected to hover at 4500-5500 feet from the front's arrival through Wednesday morning, winter impacts look to be limited to the Cascades. A Winter Weather Advisory is in place for areas near and north of Crater Lake and at elevations above 5000 feet from Wednesday morning through Thursday morning, given that snowfall in this area is expected to make travel hazardous. Snowfall amounts of 12 to 16 inches are forecast over the Cascades on Wednesday. Current SPC guidance shows around a 90 percent chance for snowfall rates of 1 inch per hour Wednesday morning into early in the afternoon, and 40 to 50 percent chance for a brief period of 2 inches per hour late in the morning. Also, gusty winds are expected over elevated terrain and the usual exposed areas on Wednesday, especially east of the Cascades. With mid-level model winds approaching 55 kts, gusts along Winter Rim/Summer Lake and the Warner Mountains could reach up to 55 mph in that late Wednesday morning-early afternoon timeframe. Gusts of 30-40 mph are expected to be more widespread across east side areas. Activity across the area eases on Wednesday evening, but a cold air mass looks to bring impactful overnight low temperatures for west side valleys. The Rogue, Applegate, Illinois, and western Klamath County valleys are all forecast to see lows from the mid 20s to low 30s on these nights. These temperatures would bring chances of frost or freezing conditions. East of the Cascades, overnight lows look to be in the mid teens to low 20s. Chilly nights aside, Thursday looks to be a quieter day. While snow levels drop to 1500-2000 feet in the morning, declining activity will minimize the chance of impactful winter conditions at lower elevations. Another shortwave ridge looks to bring warmer temperatures and dry conditions on Friday and Saturday. Long-term deterministic imagery is showing more agreement of a low pressure system approaching the area from the northwest late this weekend into early next week, bringing periods of southwest or southerly flow. While details are still coarse, the tight pressure gradients aloft in imagery tend to indicate stronger winds, and southerly flow patterns tend to deliver moderate to heavy precipitation to the Mount Shasta area and coastal terrain. Details remain coarse for this timeframe, so stay tuned for additional details on continuing active weather. && .AVIATION (00Z TAFs)... A front will pass through the region tonight and Wednesday. This will result in widespread precipitation through Wednesday afternoon. As a result, MVFR conditions will likely become common across the area. Areas of IFR ceilings and visibilities are expected along the coast late tonight and early Wednesday morning. Probabilities were not high enough to include IFR (ceilings/visibilities) for inland sites at this time, but there is an 8%-18% chance for IFR conditions inland. Widespread mountain obscurations are expected tonight through Wednesday. && .MARINE...Updated 1200 PM PDT Tuesday, April 14, 2026...Seas will remain below advisory level through early this afternoon. However, a front will start passing through the region later today. This will result in widespread precipitation, strong winds, and steep seas starting late this afternoon/early evening. Localized areas of very steep and hazardous seas may be briefly possible north of Coos Bay as the front initially starts to transition over the waters. Steep seas will continue behind the front through Thursday afternoon. A weak thermal trough may bring gusty northerly winds over the outer waters and south of Cape Blanco on Friday. Another active system may bring additional rainfall and steep seas this weekend. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Wednesday for ORZ030-031. Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ027. CA...Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ085. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Thursday for PZZ350-356-370-376. && $$  430 FXUS63 KIND 150125 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 925 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Active pattern this week with near daily chances for showers and storms. Friday likely to be the driest day of the week. - Near record warm temperatures expected through Saturday with multiple days in the 80s and lows in the 60s. && .FORECAST UPDATE... Issued at 922 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The severe weather threat has diminished across central Indiana as storms have shifted out of the region. Latest observations depict quiet weather over the forecast area with storms still ongoing further east in Ohio. Expect mostly quiet weather through the overnight period due to weak surface ridging building in and convective overturning from recent storms. POPs were lowered significantly in the latest update. Isolated showers or storms cannot be ruled out late tonight, mainly across northern counties as a complex of storms may shift south. The storms will likely weaken as they progress southeastward though and may stay north of the area entirely so confidence is low. Trends will continue to be monitored closely for any additional adjustments, but dry conditions are likely through the overnight. Look for mild lows in the mid-upper 60s tonight thanks to breezy southwesterly flow. && .DISCUSSION (This evening through Tuesday)... Issued at 303 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 An MCS over the upper Mississippi Valley decayed over central IL early this morning, but its outflow boundary continued to push through central Indiana, of which led to isolated thunderstorms and showers north and west of Indianapolis. This boundary is now stalling over central IL as it interacts with modest SW flow ahead of a developing low pressure system. Visible satellite imagery is starting to define this boundary, of which is currently along a line from Bloomington to Terre Haute; this is supported by the mass fields in the surface analysis. North/East of this boundary there is still signals of some mid-level stability both in the cloud features and from ACAR sounding analysis at KIND. However to its South/West, modest moisture advection is aiding in quick destabilization showcased by areas of "popcorn" cumulus. Convective initiation is expected to begin over the next few hours over this area, quickly pushing eastward, reaching central Indiana between 4 and 6PM. Cells initially could begin elevated, but should quickly erode the weak cap and become surface based with progression. Parameter spacing for severe weather is rather robust today with an expected 2-3 kJ/kg of CAPE and greater than 40kt of effective shear. This should allow for organized/strong updrafts to develop with a broad risk of damaging wind gusts and large hail. While tornadoes are not the primary threat, there will be a chance of isolated tornadoes this evening. The primary concern will be with cells that become highly deviant along the aforementioned boundary and brief spin-ups within cell mergers. The severe threat should wane after 02Z as subsidence on the backside of the MCS increases convective inhibition. Focus will then turn to upstream convection over the western Great Lakes. The primary threat will likely stay well to the north overnight, but residual outflow boundaries tomorrow could focus initiation over northern portions of the area in the morning and early afternoon, with the thunderstorm threat continuing into the early evening. Confidence in specific locations for thunderstorms is low, and will greatly depend on the evolution and progression of upstream convection tonight. Instability will remain high tomorrow but shear will not be quite as organized leading to a lower overall severe threat, with a marginal threat of damaging winds and large hail for most of central Indiana. The active pattern will continue into the weekend with multiple waves bringing additional chances for storms then upper ridging expected to bring drier and cooler air for the start of the new week. Wednesday night will start off with an upper short wave tracking from the central plains to the Great Lakes with showers and storms along and ahead of the associated cold front. Main threats with this system will be lightning and stronger wind gusts mixing down within stronger storms. The persistent SW flow will prolong the above normal temperatures through Saturday as highs will range from the 70s to mid 80s and lows in the 50s to 60s. Friday will see a break in rain chances then a deep trough will prompt another round storms for Saturday. Models show that the surface low with this system will be unaligned and tracking ahead of its upper component. This will potentially make Saturday's system more diurnally driven rather than synoptically forced. At this time, strong deep layer flow will be parallel to the cold front which could be enough to form a line of storms with damaging winds being the main concern. Outside of storms, stronger gusts are likely Saturday and into Sunday since the elevated portion of the system will be lagging behind. General gusts Saturday could reach as high as 35-40 mph and around 25 mph on Sunday. There are still some differences on when the associated cold front would exit, but likely sometime late Saturday into the overnight hours, behind which cooler and below normal temperatures will return at least for the first couple of days of the new week. Lows Monday morning could be approaching near freezing to mid-30s. Surface high pressure behind the front looks to track over the Ohio Valley, allowing for dry weather for the start of the new week as well. && .AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 747 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Impacts: - Mainly SSW winds through the TAF period, gusting to 17-25KT - Non-zero chances of additional convection this evening - LLWS at KLAF 05Z-14Z...and lower chances of LLWS at KIND 06Z-09Z tonight - Greater chances of convection Wednesday after 16Z Discussion: Mainly VFR conditions will prevail near central Indiana terminals into Wednesday evening. Recent convection has exited the region to the east...with non-zero chances for additional storms this evening that are too low to include in any TAF. FEW/SCT lower clouds are possible at times into Wednesday...with BKN low-VFR CIGs possible Wednesday morning. MVFR is possible in any stronger convection after 16Z, especially at KLAF/KHUF...although confidence is low in flight rules for any hour/terminal with multiple/subtle boundaries guiding convective initiation Wednesday. Breezy, mainly south-southwest flow to prevail through Wednesday, with slight changes in direction possible, especially near any showers. Flow with gust usually 17-25KT, with generally higher gusts during the day Wednesday. LLWS overnight tonight through 14Z at KLAF, and possibly brief LLWS at KIND overnight, but confidence too low to include in TAF. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Melo AVIATION...AGM DISCUSSION...KF/Updike  359 FXHW60 PHFO 150150 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 350 PM HST Tue Apr 14 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Light to moderate trade winds will gradually return from east to west across the state Wednesday into Thursday. Fairly dry conditions are expected over the next few days with some passing showers. An increase in showers is possible over the weekend as the trades weaken and begin to veer towards the southeast due to a low pressure system developing northwest of the state. Mid to high level clouds will continue to stream across the state over the next few days, increasing cloud coverage at times. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 350 PM HST Tue Apr 14 2026 This afternoon's radar and satellite imagery shows an increase of moderate to locally heavy showers over parts of windward Kauai and central Oahu as a result of the day time sea breeze convergence and lingering moisture over the western half of the state. For tonight, we should generally see showers decrease across the state with land breezes developing over many areas. For Wednesday and Thursday, trade winds will gradually fill in from east to west across the state with moderate trades expected by Thursday. Although the weather will be cloudy at times due to the upper level trough to our west, lower levels of the atmosphere will be fairly dry with mainly some isolated to scattered showers expected. The one exception is over Kauai, where we could see afternoon showers develop Wednesday afternoon over interior areas. Drier conditions are expected by Thursday for Kauai. For Friday into the weekend, we will see an upper level trough digging down into the vicinity of the state from the northwest. The latest 12Z guidance continues to show the main moisture staying off to the west of the state with a surface low developing this weekend and lifting off to the north on both the GFS and ECMWF models. A subtle shift with the trough further east could change the weekend forecast quite a bit, so at this time the forecast for the weekend still remains uncertain. At the very least, we will likely see an increase of showers due to some low level moisture moving in from the east. Moderate easterly trades on Friday will likely gradually weaken and veer towards the southeast over the weekend especially around Sunday && .AVIATION... Issued at 350 PM HST Tue Apr 14 2026 Mostly VFR, but isolated IFR in low clouds persists, especially at PHNY. This should end this evening. There is a chance of showers at PHLI through early evening, with brief MVFR possible, but not expected. Winds will increase slightly overnight and become generally southeast Wednesday. ENE trades should return Thursday. No AIRMETs in effect. && .MARINE... Issued at 350 PM HST Tue Apr 14 2026 Trough to the W persists in maintenance of gentle to locally moderate SE flow. Building high pressure then supports locally fresh trades across the waters into the weekend. A small, short- period, NW swell slowly diminishes into the weekend. A small, medium-period, S swell will boost surf along S shores through late week and subside over the weekend. Surf along E shores remains below the seasonal average as trades remain light. Increasing trades by week's end then brings a slight bump to surf. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kino AVIATION...Parker MARINE...JVC