613 FXUS62 KKEY 150201 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1001 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all Florida Keys coastal waters overnight. Breezy conditions will persist through at least early Wednesday morning. - Little to no measurable rain will maintain continued moderate drought conditions in the Florida Keys for the next week. - Temperatures will remain near normal, with highs in the lower 80s, and lows in the lower 70s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1000 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Deep mean layer ridging remains in place across the area again this evening. At the surface, the center of the ridge is centered across the central North Atlantic with the western periphery of this ridge extending westward into Florida and the Gulf. Marine observation platforms surrounding the Florida Keys are recording northeast to east breezes near 20 knots as a result. GOES 19 Total Precipitable Water (TPW) products shows estimated PWAT values of 0.65 to 0.80 inches throughout the Florida Keys. This places the PWAT values below the 10th percentile for the date. KBYX radar has been void of any activity as a result. GOES 19 Nighttime Microphysics imagery shows stratocumulus dotting the sky across the Keys with these moving in a northeast to southwest direction. Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the mid 70s and dew points are in the mid 60s. .SHORT TERM FORECAST... The 00z evening sounding at KEY sampled a very dry atmospheric profile throughout the entire column with a stout inversion just above 850 mb. The sounding also shows general unidirectional wind flow with height. The sounding measured a PWAT value of 0.73 inches which is below the 10th percentile for the date. This is indicative of a very dry atmosphere. The only catalyst for a shower would speed convergence overnight due to the increased wind flow. The best chance for seeing a shower would be across the Straits of Florida where the slightly deeper moisture is present. && .MARINE... Issued at 1000 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all the Florida Keys coastal waters overnight. From synopsis, a high pressure system over the central North Atlantic will maintain moderate to fresh northeast to east breezes (except fresh to strong Florida Straits) overnight through Wednesday night. Occasional fast- moving light showers cannot be ruled out, especially in the overnight periods. Breezes likely will lull from late morning into the late afternoon across the Gulf waters due to the heating of South Florida. As the high moves farther eastward and slowly weakens, easterly breezes will slacken Thursday through Sunday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1000 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions are expected to persist at both EYW and MTH terminals through the TAF period. Near surface winds will remain mainly easterly between 10 to 15 knots with frequent gusts to near 20 knots, especially during the daylight hours Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 82 73 82 73 / 10 10 10 10 Marathon 80 72 80 73 / 10 10 10 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for GMZ031>035- 042>044-052>055-072>075. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...MJV Aviation/Nowcasts....MJV Data Acquisition.....DR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest  102 FXUS63 KGLD 150202 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 802 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy S to SW winds and critical fire weather possible over portions of the area, yet again, on Thursday. - A strong cold front Friday afternoon may drop temperatures below freezing overnight Friday and Saturday. Light snowfall may occur behind the front as well. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 101 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Front is pushing south through the area with dew points increasing behind it. This front is forecast to start retreating back north through the day as a warm front. A developing surface low across Colorado will be the dictating feature that will determine when and the northern extent of this. Red Flag Warning will remain but have significant concerns for the duration of the northern and eastern extent of the warning due to timing of the retreating warm front. The strongest of the winds will be to the south of the warm front where winds remain from the WSW and winds gust around 40 mph. Late this afternoon and evening rainfall chances still look to increase with the warm front, additional lift due to the low and an approaching 500mb shortwave and associated jet streak. The favored area is across Yuma, Dundy and Cheyenne (KS) this evening where high based showers characterized by inverted v soundings are in place. I do have some concern for 50-60+ mph winds with any downdrafts. Winds also may be able to mix from pressure rises on its own as well as RAP and HRRR suggest 6-8mb rises over 3 hours with the GFS being the strongest at 10mb over 3 hours. Rain chances may extend a little further south but again will be dependent on the placement of the low and where the dry slot will set up. Guidance suggests that deep saturation and perhaps even the most favorable timeframe from light rain will occur early Wednesday morning through the early afternoon as the low continues to move through the area so have increased rain chances through the morning hours. Northwest flow is forecast to be in place through the day on Wednesday with high temperatures in the 70s. Guidance is coming into agreement on a tighter pressure gradient in wake of the low with wind gusts around 30 mph across the entire area. Due to the progression of the low am forecasting these winds to ease up in magnitude as the afternoon goes on. Thursday, surface troughing is forecast to be in place across the area. A very dry airmass is also forecast to be in place as well along with warm temperatures as high temperatures reach the 80s across the area. The combination of this is leading to high confidence in single digit humidity values for most if not all of the forecast area. Do have concerns for critical fire weather but at this time winds look to be fairly marginal. Am opting to forego any fire weather highlights at this time to ensure that the signal for winds remains and does not degrade which has been the trend over the past few days. Thursday night and into the extended period a strong cold front is forecast to move into the area shifting winds to the north. If there is a fire ongoing that is something to be aware of. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 218 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A high amplitude shortwave upper-level trough looks to be making its way across the Rocky Mountains beginning Friday morning, with a modest 50-70 kt jet streak at 500-mb across the Four-Corners Region. A broad surface low pressure is favored to already exist from the Midwest back into Eastern Colorado in association with these upper- level features, and may continue to deepen throughout the day, particularly across portions of the Central and South-Central High Plains where lee cyclogenesis is favored. A strong cold front looks to begin traversing the forecast region sometime Friday afternoon, though there are some issues as to the exact timing. This matters because critical fire weather conditions may be experienced ahead of the cold front. Current forecast guidance shows mid to upper-teen relative humidities (RH) across portions of East-Central Colorado and West-Central Kansas, with wind gusts in the 25-40 mph range possible during the early to mid-afternoon. Critical fire weather conditions could be mitigated with a faster progression of the cold front, or enhanced by a slower progression. LREF guidance currently shows a large amount of variance in wind direction across portions of Northwest Kansas and Eastern Colorado Friday morning, highlighting issues regarding the front's timing. Around 60% of GEFS and EC members show a scenario where the cold front progresses faster, and thus, would mitigate the critical fire weather risk. LREF guidance would seem to support this solution, suggesting at best a 1 in 3 chance for RH values to meet critical fire weather criteria across portions of Western Kansas, and less for the rest of the region. Confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed Friday afternoon sits at around 5%. Friday evening may be accompanied by a freeze overnight behind the cold front, in addition to an opportunity for snowfall. Lows are currently forecast in the lower-20s to lower-30s Friday night across the region, with as high as a 60% chance for light snowfall across portions of Northeastern Colorado and far Southwest Nebraska. NBM guidance suggests over a 40% chance across this zone that the snowfall is measurable (>0.1 inches). Reduced visibilities due to blowing snow may also be experienced, as NBM guidance indicates that sustained winds over 25 mph can't be ruled out. Cooler conditions could last into Saturday, with highs forecast in the mid-50s to lower-60s. Critical fire weather conditions may once again be experienced across portions of Eastern Colorado and West-Central Kansas, where RH values are forecast in the mid to upper-teens, and wind gusts in the 25-40 mph range. NBM guidance suggests a 60-80% chance for wind gusts to meet criteria for critical fire weather conditions across this zone, with LREF guidance giving RH values a 50-70% chance. Even so, confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed across this zone is only about 5% due to the strength and duration of the cold front from Friday into Saturday, which may keep RH values a bit more elevated. While deterministic model guidance is a lot more divergent past Sunday morning, GEFS and EC 500-mb height mean-spread guidance suggests ridging is favored across the forecast region Sunday morning through the end of the period. Conditions look to be warm and dry, with highs in the 70s on Sunday, and 80s Monday and Tuesday. RH values continue to be forecast on the lower end, with upper single-digits to lower-teens on Sunday, and low to mid-teens Monday and Tuesday. Critical fire weather conditions may be experienced all three days, though confidence decreases for Monday and Tuesday due to timing issues of a slow-moving upper-level trough from the west. Sunday's risk seems highest, as LREF guidance suggests a 3 in 4 chance for RH values to meet criteria across most of the area, with NBM guidance yielding over 50% probabilities for wind gusts to meet criteria. Confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed Sunday is around 10%. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 518 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. A cold front moving through Wednesday morning will bring a few hours of low to mid clouds, possibly MVFR at times, through about 18z before clearing out. A brief shower will be possible at KMCK during that time as well. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Trigg LONG TERM...Davis AVIATION...024  003 FXUS61 KOKX 150202 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1002 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Added key message 1 to state near term showers and isolated thunderstorms and the gust front. Aviation discussion updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) For late this evening, still have showers and isolated thunderstorms. Gust front ahead of this activity resulting in gusts up to near 30 kt. 2) Well above normal temperatures through Friday. 3) Showers and thunderstorms possible through Friday, mainly each afternoon. 4) Strong cold front Sunday with temperatures returning to below normal Sunday night through Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Showers developing within the region and moving in from the north. Still some lingering instability with isolated thunderstorms. A gust front has developed ahead of this activity with gusts up to near 30 kt. Increased POPs and cloud coverage with slight adjustments to temperatures. .KEY MESSAGE 2... A large upper level ridge over the East Coast and Western Atlantic is providing for surface temperatures that are and will continue to be well above normal through Friday. High pressure to the southeast is allowing for a generally SW flow advecting in a warmer airmass that sits over the area this week. Given the generally ample sunshine expected today through Thursday, temperatures quickly rise each morning with overall highs in the 80s expected. Some locations in and around NE NJ and perhaps the NYC metro may approach 90 degrees each afternoon into Thursday. Highs closer to the coast will be a bit cooler, generally in the 70s, but uncertainty in temperatures along the coast remains a bit higher than normal as temperatures may exceed current forecast highs depending on subtle shifts in wind direction and speed due to a cold ocean. Temperatures generally begin to moderate a bit by Friday given more cloud cover with highs in the 70s and then even moreso into the weekend with highs in the 60s. .KEY MESSAGE 3... A stationary front well north of the area will generally the focus of several weak mid-level disturbances to push east over the next several days. This should be the main forcing mechanism for any shower and thunderstorm development. Each day, any showers or thunderstorms that develop to the north and west may approach the area into the later afternoon and evening, though uncertainty as to the coverage remains fairly high, despite a fair amount of instability for inland areas. The main threats for any thunderstorms are heavy rainfall but strong to damaging wind gusts remain possible as well, mainly today and Wednesday. As the front sags a bit further south late Thursday into Friday, more showery activity is expected rather than thunderstorms, though an embedded storm can't be ruled out. .KEY MESSAGE 4... A strong cold front is forecast to move through the region during Sunday, while there are still some timing difference, consenus is for a cold frontal passage Sunday afternoon. Showers will accompany the passage, with a chance of thunder as well. After a prolonged period of above normal temperatures, the cold front passage will return temperatures to several degrees below normal Sunday night through Tuesday. && .AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Offshore high pressure will remain southeast of the terminals through the TAF period. Weak low pressure with associated stationary front to the northwest of the region. Mainly VFR during the TAF period. Possible MVFR with showers as well as isolated thunderstorms. Patchy fog possible overnight with possible IFR/MVFR. Another round of showers/thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday afternoon, once again with the best chances north of NYC. Winds tonight diminish to near 10kt or less with more of a SW-W flow. A quick NW gusty wind will be present at some terminals ahead of the showers and isolated thunderstorms. Gusts forecast reach near 30 kt for a brief time. Some of the terminals may go light and variable overnight. Winds become S once again on Wednesday 10-15kt in the afternoon. Some gusts to near 20kt will also be possible. LLWS possible at KGON and KISP tonight, with WSW flow 40-45 kt at FL020. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Low chance of a shower reaching the NYC terminals. Possible quick gust to 30 kt before 05Z Wednesday. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... Wednesday night through Friday: Mainly VFR, with chance of afternoon and evening showers/tstms each day, mainly NW of the NYC metros, with brief flight cat reduction to MVFR. SW winds could gust 15-20kt each afternoon Wed-Thu as well. Saturday: Mainly VFR. Easterly winds around 10kt. Sunday: Chance of showers and thunderstorms, with MVFR conditions possible. S-SW winds 5-15kt. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Brief SCA level wind gusts possible with gust front for all waters. There may an occasional wave height near 5 feet this evening but it will be short lived. Otherwise sub-SCA conditions expected on all the waters through Sunday. With the passage of a strong cold front Sunday, and high pressure building in from the west, westerly winds and gusts increase Sunday night, with SCA conditions developing on the ocean waters out to 20 nm by late Sunday night, and continuing into Monday. During Monday west to northwest gusts may reach advisory levels across the non ocean waters. && .CLIMATE... Daily record high temperatures that could be reached: Wed, April 15: KEWR: 88/1960 KBDR: 81/1960 KNYC: 87/1941 KLGA: 86/1941 KJFK: 80/2006 KISP: 78/2024 Daily record high minimum temperatures that could be reached: Tue, April 14: KEWR: 62/2014 KBDR: 54/2023 KNYC: 70/2023 KLGA: 67/2023 KJFK: 55/2023 KISP: 54/2022 Wed, April 15: KEWR: 60/2023 KBDR: 53/2012 KNYC: 67/1941 KLGA: 64/1941 KJFK: 58/1960 KISP: 56/2023 Thu, April 16: KEWR: 64/2002 KBDR: 53/2002 KNYC: 69/2002 KLGA: 68/2002 KJFK: 57/2002 KISP: 55/2012 Fri, April 17: KEWR: 68/2002 KBDR: 57/2002 KNYC: 74/2002 KLGA: 73/2002 KJFK: 60/2002 KISP: 61/2002 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM/MET/MW AVIATION...JM MARINE...JM/MET/MW  098 FXUS61 KALY 150206 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 1006 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Severe Thunderstorm Watch #108 has been cancelled for the rest of the area as the threat has ended. Scattered showers will linger for a few more hours across parts of Dutchess and Litchfield Counties. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday south of the Capital Region. 2. The threat for widespread impactful weather is low from Thursday through the end of the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Another shortwave trough will track through the mean, zonal flow tomorrow, bringing additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms. With today's quasi-stationary boundary still present, just a bit further south, and another surface wave riding along it, there could be some isolated severe thunderstorms, particularly in the Eastern Catskills where a Marginal Risk for severe weather currently exists. The primary threat with these will also be strong to locally damaging wind gusts, but the threat looks much more subdued compared to today. KEY MESSAGE 2... Additional disturbances will force a rinse-and-repeat type pattern through the end of the week with rounds of additional showers and non-severe thunderstorms amid a persistent, warm environment. Temperatures will continue to run above normal until late this weekend into early next week when a fairly potent cold front sweeps through the region and brings us actually to below-normal levels by Monday. That said, the overall probability for impactful weather is low from Thursday through early next week. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 00z Thursday...SHRA/TSRA are now well south of KGFL/KALB and have just moved south of KPSF. There is still a line of SHRA/TSRA with gusty winds that may reach KPOU before weakening, so have mentioned a TEMPO from 01z-03z. Otherwise, VFR conditions will likely prevail until overnight when fog is likely to occur at KGFL and possibly at KPSF given the earlier rain and moist low levels. Will mention IFR/LIFR conditions at KGFL and IFR at KPSF although confidence is lower there. Additional scattered SHRA are expected to move east across the area Wednesday morning to early afternoon so have included PROB30 at most sites. Winds will be west-southwest around 5-10 kt, becoming variable less than 5 kt overnight. Outlook... Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Sunday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures(Year Set): Today April 14: Albany: 89(2023) Glens Falls: 84(2023) Poughkeepsie: 91(2023) Wednesday April 15: Albany: 86(2003) Glens Falls: 84(2003) Poughkeepsie: 84(2003) Thursday April 16: Albany: 91(2012) Glens Falls: 89(2002) Poughkeepsie: 91(2012) && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...12 AVIATION...07 CLIMATE...07  336 FXUS65 KRIW 150208 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 808 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A potent winter storm system is forecast to bring widespread precipitation, wind, and freezing temperatures to the entire area beginning late Wednesday until Friday evening. Confidence in measurable snowfall continues to increase for lower elevations. - There is high (90% +) confidence in a hard freeze (28 degrees or below) across low elevations Friday morning and Saturday morning, with the potential for widespread lows in the teens early Saturday morning. - Temperatures will warm this weekend into next week, with the next weather system arriving by Tuesday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 100 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Today's weather is on track to be the last tranquil day across the area before the upcoming weather system. Weak flow with relatively dry mid-level air will be present behind the departing trough and allow for mostly sunny skies this afternoon. Expect highs to be in the 60s east of the Divide and in the 40s to 50s west of the Divide. As mentioned in the morning discussion, isolated light snow shower chances (20%) exist this afternoon across higher elevations as a weak disturbance traverses the state. Breezy conditions are expected west of the Divide as this disturbance passes over this afternoon. All attention continues to be focused on the upcoming winter weather system that is forecast to impact the region Wednesday night through Friday. This system, a strong cold front, is expected to bring widespread wind, precipitation, and cold. As the trough and associated cold front makes its way into the northern Rockies on Wednesday, expect strong southwest winds Wednesday afternoon as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the cold front. Frequent wind gusts of 25 mph to 40 mph can be expected across most of the area and result in elevated fire weather conditions. Relative humidity values are expected (70-90%) to remain above 20 percent. The first push of the winter weather arrives across western Wyoming Wednesday afternoon. Across the western mountains, the most likely period of heavy snow will occur early Wednesday evening through midday Thursday as the cold front makes its push east. Snow totals have also trended up across the Wind River Mountains beginning Wednesday evening, so this area has been added to the Winter Storm Watch. Precipitation will then spread east across the rest of Wyoming Thursday afternoon, most likely as rain. The cold push currently looks to not arrive until after sunset on Thursday for most low elevations. Thanks to strong cold air advection, this will feel like a good punch of cold behind the front with 700mb temperatures rapidly dropping from positive 2 celsius to near negative 10 celsius in a matter of hours. This strong northerly push will also result in gusty winds, especially near Buffalo where there is an 85% chance of 45+ mph gusts. Given the moisture content with this system and the cold temperatures, there is fairly high confidence (80%+) in most low elevation areas seeing measurable snowfall by Friday morning. However, no highlights will be issued at this time for locations east of the Divide due to the greatest impacts occurring in 2+ days (Thursday night into Friday midday). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 145 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Finally a more active pattern across Wyoming trying to bring precipitation! The latest system is a trough ejecting into the central Plains from the Four Corners region. This system is set a little too far south to bring a significant amount of precip, but still enough energy to produce precip for areas of Casper Mountain, the Bighorns, and higher elevations of the Tetons. But this does set the table for a potent late winter storm diving out of the PacNW into the northern Rockies. This system starts to spread precip into the NW mountains during the day Wednesday before slowly moving east Thursday and Friday. The system will be accompanied by ample moisture, so the potential for meaningful accumulations is improving. The system will also be accompanied by a strong push of colder air, so most precip will be snowfall, especially Thursday night into Friday. This includes most of the lower elevations as well, with the current forecast totals of 2 to 5 inches. Winter Storm Watches have been posted for the northwestern Mountains and YNP for this system, and may need to be expanded is the snow forecast increases with later updates. The other concern with this next system is the significant cold air push coming with and behind the next system. Cold temperatures will arrive during the day Thursday, with lows Thursday night in the low to mid 20s east of the Divide and in the teens west of the Divide. The main core of the cold air then settles in on Friday, with the core of the cold air setting in Friday night. Probabilities of temperatures falling below 28 degrees are high (>90%), with current forecast lows reaching the teens. The complicating factor will be how quickly cloud cover clears out behind the weather system, allowing for radiational cooling. If clouds hold longer, these teens would likely not be achieved. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 436 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals through the TAF period. Some clouds have begun to develop across western terminals with clearing expected overnight. A nearing disturbance will start to usher in more cloud coverage and lower ceilings for Wednesday morning. Wind should gradually decrease by sunset across all terminals with KRIW, KRKS, and KCOD being the only exceptions. These terminals are likely to see breezy wind of 15 to 25 knots linger through about 06-07Z Wednesday. Wind will begin to increase across all terminals by the mid to late morning Wednesday. Widespread gusts of 20 to 30 knots will be possible beginning late morning Wednesday into the end of the TAF period. Terminals should remain dry through the period with KJAC possibly seeing some showers developing around 18Z into the end of the period. Mountain obscuration will likely increase late Wednesday morning across western ranges ahead of an incoming weather system. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday evening through late Thursday night for WYZ001-002-012. Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday evening through Friday afternoon for WYZ014-015. && $$ UPDATE...Gerhardt DISCUSSION...Straub AVIATION...Dziewaltowski/Rowe  316 FXUS65 KBYZ 150211 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Billings MT 811 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Storm system late Wednesday into Friday. Widespread rain potentially transitioning to snow over the lower elevations Thursday. An inch or less of snow expected for lower elevations. - Moderate to heavy snow for area mountain ranges. 40-90% chance for greater than 12 inches of snow for the Absaroka/Beartooth and Crazy mountains. <10% chance for the Bighorn Mountains. - Warmer and Dry this Weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Through Tuesday... Breezy winds are expected over the foothills west of Billings Wednesday as 40 kt upper level winds mix to the surface. These locations have a 20-60% chance of seeing a wind gust over 50 mph with the highest chances being in the Livingston area. Breezy winds then spread across the region Thursday with all locations seeing wind gusts in the 30s and 40s mph. Upper level troughing moves into the region bringing a range of impacts late Wednesday through Friday. Some details are more certain while others are less certain with this system. Among the things that are more certain include a cold frontal passage Thursday changing precipitation from rain to snow (or rain/snow mix), and the highest precipitation amounts over the mountains and foothills. Less certain is exactly when the cold front will occur and how much temperatures will drop. This will determine when the change to snow will occur and if it will be snow or a rain/snow mix. Heavy snow is expected for the Absaroka/Beartooth and Crazy mountains as they have a 40-90% chance of getting greater than 12 inches of snow. Lower snowfall totals are expected for the Bighorn mountains as they have a 70-90% chance of getting greater than 6 inches of snow. Lower elevations are not expected to receive heavy snow with these areas having a less than 20% chance of getting greater than 2 inches of snow. Overall, minor winter impacts are expected for the lower elevations. Lingering precipitation chances exit the region by Friday night as warmer and drier conditions return for the weekend. After having high temperatures in the 40s F Thursday and Friday, 60s F are expected by Sunday with 70s F Monday and Tuesday with continued dry conditions. Torgerson .AVIATION... 02z Discussion...Isolated light rain showers will continue to push east over the plains this evening before dissipating tonight. While winds may decrease a bit around KLVM tonight, look for gusty southwest to west winds to increase once again Wednesday. These gusty winds will also impact K6S0 and K3HT during the day Wednesday. Late Wednesday into Thursday, a cold front is expected to move through the area. Ahead of this front, isolated to scattered showers are forecast over and near the mountains of south-central and western Montana Wednesday afternoon and evening. With this, occasional mountain obscurations will occur. Arends && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 041/067 038/047 026/046 027/057 035/069 040/077 045/072 01/B 58/W 44/J 21/U 00/U 01/B 13/W LVM 038/060 029/041 021/043 023/054 030/064 037/070 041/067 05/W 99/J 56/J 20/U 00/U 01/B 24/W HDN 037/070 038/050 025/046 024/056 028/069 036/079 042/075 11/B 48/W 54/J 21/U 00/U 00/U 13/W MLS 039/067 039/050 024/041 021/051 027/065 037/075 043/074 01/B 25/W 31/B 01/U 00/U 00/U 11/U 4BQ 037/068 041/056 025/040 020/048 027/065 036/076 045/074 00/U 14/W 63/J 11/U 00/U 00/U 12/W BHK 037/068 039/054 023/038 019/046 025/063 034/070 041/071 00/U 03/W 52/J 01/U 00/U 00/U 01/B SHR 032/066 037/049 023/038 019/049 025/064 034/073 039/071 00/B 29/W 87/J 21/U 00/U 00/U 13/W && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Winter Storm Watch in effect from Wednesday evening through late Thursday night FOR ZONE 67. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings  845 FXUS63 KFSD 150212 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 912 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered shower with isolated thunderstorms will be possible by Wednesday afternoon and evening. However, severe weather is not expected. - Unseasonably warm temperatures and dry conditions combined with breezy southwest winds will lead to elevated to near- critical fire danger especially across southeastern SD. Additional concerns will be possible by Friday. However, increase rain chances could temper concerns. - A pattern shift will lead to a brief cool down over the weekend. While this could be accompanied by precipitation chances (30%-40%) mainly on Friday, there is some potential for multiple types so make to monitor your local forecast. && .UPDATE... Issued at 910 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Taking a look across the area, not much has changed from the initial discussion below. The area of scattered showers has slightly expanded with the line now extending from roughly Wagner, SD to Marshall, MN. However, with soundings continuing to show pockets of drier air; accumulations have been minimal if any. From here, we'll likely see this area of activity fester over the next couple hours before dissipating with the absence of diurnal heating. Looking into tonight, could see some additional development across areas along and south of U.S. Highway-20 as another weak wave interacts with the stationary boundary just southeast of our area. Nonetheless, with weakening instability; not expecting much besides some scattered light to moderate showers at times through daybreak on Wednesday. Heading into Wednesday, the main focus continues to be on the severe risk from the late afternoon to evening hours. Still thinking the area of focus will across northwestern IA and more specifically our far southeastern zones (Woodbury, Cherokee, Clay, Buena Vista, and Ida counties) as this is probably where the better shear (40-50kts) and instability (300-800 J/kg) will be collocated for our area. However, with 18z-00z guidance supporting another shift southeastwards; confidence continues to decrease in the severe weather potential for our area. Looking further into things, looks like the overall system slightly shifted eastwards pushing the axis of the strongest activity eastwards as well. With this in mind, not expected any stronger activity in our area. However, scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms could progress through the area for a short-time (4-8pm) before pushing into northcentral IA. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 233 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Radar is picking up on a stripe of showers extending from roughly Marshall, MN to Gregory, SD this afternoon, but most of this will not be reaching the ground due high cloud heights and dry air beneath said clouds. Scattered showers and storms will continue to develop off to our south and west over the next hour or so where the greater surface moisture is. Can't entirely rule out an elevated thunderstorm over northwest Iowa as soundings show a few hundred J/kg of CAPE lifted from around 750 mb this afternoon, but likely not enough for severe weather. However, small hail would be possible with mid level lapse rates around 7-7.5 C/km and 50-60 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear if a thunderstorm can develop. A boundary will be lifting northward across the region late tonight into Wednesday morning. The NAMNest is the fastest with this boundary arrival, bringing in storms to the Highway 20 corridor just before sunrise Wednesday, but this remains an outlier. What's more likely to occur is showers and storms not developing until the afternoon as the boundary continues drifting northward and instability increases due to daytime heating. Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible given mid level lapse rates greater than 8 C/km and bulk shear in the 45-55 kt range. The main threat with any of these afternoon storms would be large hail up to ping pong ball in size followed by damaging wind gusts to 60 mph. If we do get morning showers or storms tomorrow, then that may limit the ability for the atmosphere to recover in the afternoon, thus less afternoon instability. The best chance of an isolated severe storm Wednesday afternoon will be roughly along and east of a Spencer to Sioux City line. Any storms will push east of the area heading into Wednesday evening as the surface low and upper wave move out of the area. We are dry for Thursday, but this may come with the potential for critical fire danger in parts of the area. Southwesterly winds look to return for areas mainly along and west of I-29, which will help drop relative humidity values down to 25% and below Thursday afternoon. With temperatures in the 80s and winds gusting to 25 to 30 mph, a very high fire danger can be expected for most of the area. Uncertainty remains on how strong the winds will get and how far east these stronger winds make it, and if the grasses are starting to green up enough to prevent more widespread fire weather concerns. With that, held off on fire weather headlines for now until certainty grows. The main western US trough that has been helping to send all these impulses across the area over the past couple of days will finally move eastward heading into Friday, pushing a strong cold front into the area. Ahead of the front, warm and moister air will be favorable for thunderstorms, some of which could be strong to severe mainly east of I-29. Timing of the cold front will play a role in how much coverage of storms can be expected, with a faster passage meaning a lower threat and a slower passage leading to a greater threat of stronger storms. One thing is for more certain is the colder air that will follow this system, with lows expected to drop below freezing for most of the area by Saturday morning. This means some rain with this system may at least briefly turn to snow as the precipitation exits the area, but confidence is very low on this potential. Either way, expect much cooler temperatures heading into the Friday night through Sunday morning time frame. After this push of colder air, ridging aloft looks to return and thus a quick warming trend looks possible into early next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 644 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Mainly VFR conditions with occasional MVFR vsbys will be possible this TAF period. Taking a look across the area, a few scattered showers continue to progress through areas east of I-29 this afternoon. Could see additional showers and potentially thunderstorms develop near KSUX and the U.S. Highway-20 corridor overnight. With this in mind, decided to add a PROB30 group for the increasing potential of MVFR vsbys with the developing activity. Otherwise, lighter winds will continue for the duration of the TAF period. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...05 DISCUSSION...Samet AVIATION...05  264 FXUS61 KCAR 150218 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1018 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... - Removed the rest of thunder mentions over the waters - Reduced QPF over the next 6 hours. Lack of convection has significantly reduced observed precipitation so far and CAMs have been overdone. The back edge of steady precipitation is now working into the area. - Updated key message 1 description to reflect changes above && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Rain is expected this evening. This combined with above normal temperatures through Wednesday will continue to erode any remaining ice on northern rivers. 2) Warming temperatures through the end of the week, along with rainfall, will continue melting the remaining snow and ice in norther Maine. 3) Slight chance for some thunderstorms Downeast Thursday evening into Friday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Rain is expected this evening. This combined with above normal temperatures through Wednesday will continue to erode any remaining ice on northern rivers. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...Rain will taper to showers before ending later tonight. Rainfall through tonight is expected to be around a quarter inch, with slightly higher amounts possible over the Central Highlands. Continued unseasonably warm temperatures combined with any rainfall will continue to erode any remaining ice in the St John river basin in far northern Maine. KEY MESSAGE 2...Warming temperatures through the end of the week, along with rainfall, will continue melting the remaining snow and ice in norther Maine. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...Temperatures above normal are expected throughout the rest of the week with daytime highs in the 50s throughout northern and eastern Maine. Overnight lows will be generally in the 40s, and creep back into the mid-to- upper 30s by the end of the week. This extended period of warming temperatures, along with some potential rain Thursday night, will continue eroding snow/ice, and northern Maine river ice. KEY MESSAGE 3...Very slight chance for some thunderstorms Downeast Thursday evening into Friday. KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... Shortwave and low pressure system moves through late Thursday into Friday morning. Moisture advection, alongside weak frontal passage, with decent lapse rates and shear, work in favor of some minor thunderstorms developing. That being said, there is a deep inversion a few hundred feet above the surface, that would cap any storm development in the region. Decided to keep a slight chance for storms in the forecast, but temperatures would need to warm up for chance of a rumble of thunder. The chance of thunder is under 15 percent. && .AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Tonight...MVFR/IFR, rain this evening. Patchy fog later tonight, most likely at southern airports. Light E to SE wind. Wednesday...MVFR, Scattered showers. E to SE wind 5 to 10 kt. Wednesday Night...IFR with showers and patchy fog. Light SE wind. Thursday...MVFR/IFR with rain showers. Winds from the SE around 5 kt. Thursday night...MVFR/IFR, with rain and with a chance of patchy fog. SE wind around 5 kt shifting to the NE by daybreak. Friday...MVFR/IFR in rain showers. NW/N winds around 5kts. Friday night...MVFR as rain showers start to weaken. Winds from the N, shifting to the NE, at 5kts. Saturday...Generally VFR. E, shifting to SE, winds at 5 - 10 kts. && .MARINE... Winds/seas will remain below SCA levels through Wednesday night. Conditions below Small Craft criteria through the end of the week. Rain showers Thursday into Friday. Patchy fog Thursday night. Seas generally 3ft and below Thursday into Friday. Winds from the E on Thursday, shifting to the SE Thursday evening, then shifting NE by Friday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ASB/TWD AVIATION...ASB/TWD  742 FXUS65 KVEF 150228 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 730 PM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Clear skies and warming temperatures expected through tomorrow before gusty winds and cool temperatures return late-week. && .DISCUSSION...Through Monday. Temperatures will increase a few more degrees today and tomorrow as heights aloft increase. Tomorrow's highs will be within a few degrees of normal for mid-April, which for Las Vegas means highs in the low 80s. A change in the weather pattern arrives on Thursday as an area of closed low pressure, currently located off the coast of British Columbia, dives southeast into the Great Basin. The primary concern with this system is wind. Southwesterly prefrontal winds ramp up in the Mojave Desert while northwesterly postfrontal winds start to increase in the southern Great Basin on Thursday morning. These winds include gusts between 35 and 45 mph, the strongest of which should occur over high terrain. Winds remain elevated and gradually shift north on Thursday night as the front moves south. The strongest winds with this system are expected to occur on Friday in the Colorado River Valley as a favorable north to south pressure gradient develops. There is a greater than 80 percent probability of wind gusts reaching 40 mph in that area and a 40 to 50 percent probability of gusts reaching 58 mph in a localized area near Bullhead City. Will continue to monitor model trends and assess the need and timing of wind-related headlines. Besides wind, cold air and lowering heights aloft bring a 10 to 15 degree temperature decrease between Wednesday and Friday. Most moisture associated with this system remains the north of the forecast area, but there is a 20 to 40 percent probability of light precipitation in Lincoln County on Thursday and early Friday. Snow levels fall to between 2000 and 3000 feet on Thursday night as cold air moves in, meaning a dusting of snow cannot be ruled out. Temperatures will rebound and dry conditions return as ridging builds again this weekend, but breezy southerly winds may continue for some of the area. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Light winds of less than 10 knots are expected through the overnight hours following typical nocturnal drainage patterns. Southerly winds will increase in the late morning and early afternoon hours with gusts to 20 knots after 22z. Gusts will ease after dark with southerly winds continuing. Skies will be mostly clear tonight before increasing high clouds move in Wednesday evening. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Winds across the region will generally follow typical daily directional patterns with speeds around 5-10KT into Wednesday morning. By early afternoon Wednesday, southwesterly winds ramp up across the Las Vegas Valley, with gusts to 20-22KT expected on at least an intermittent basis. Additionally, across the western Mojave Desert, including KDAG, westerly winds will hover between 10-15KT through early morning, with a lull expected through mid afternoon before gusty winds return. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail with skies gradually clearing tonight before additional high clouds arrive Wednesday evening. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Meltzer AVIATION...Phillipson/CO For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter