059 FXUS63 KJKL 150300 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 1100 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures will average 15 or more degrees above normal through the end of the week. Record or near record high temperatures are forecast Wednesday, Friday, and Saturday. - Showers/storms are possible Thursday and Thursday night with a passing disturbance, with potentially greater chances this weekend with a cold front. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1100 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2026 No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones. UPDATE Issued at 730 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2026 23Z sfc analysis shows high pressure in control of the weather over eastern Kentucky, though low pressure is near to the northwest. The pressure gradient is keeping the winds breezy for the northwest portion of the area but settling elsewhere. Skies are mostly clear with the storm chances staying well north of the Ohio River. Currently, temperatures are running in the mid to upper 70s. Meanwhile, amid southwest winds of 5 to 10 mph and higher gusts northwest, dewpoints are generally in the mid to upper 50s. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids but also to tamp down the PoPs through the night per the latest CAMs guidance. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the HWO, SAFs, and zones. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 410 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2026 As of mid afternoon, an upper level ridge was centered in the eastern Gulf and extended into the Southeast as well as into portions of the Atlantic. Meanwhile, southwest to west southwest flow aloft was in place across the OH Valley with a couple of disturbances passing within this flow. This southwest to west southwest flow was occurring between the ridging to the east and southeast of the Commonwealth and an upper trough entering portions of the Northern Plains to Central Rockies to Four Corners regions. At the surface, a frontal zone extends from New England to the Great Lakes to the Central Plains to CO. Meanwhile a sfc ridge of high pressure was centered in the Atlantic into the Southeast and north into the Southern Appalachians. A few showers were exiting Pike County and into WV and VA at this time associated with a disturbance in southwest flow. Some convective allowing models have had some redevelopment through early this evening in the north and east, though recent HRRR runs have backed off on that idea. At this point, opted to maintain slight chance pops roughly east of an Irvine to Hazard to Whitesburg line for the next few hours. Chances for any convection wane with the loss of daytime heating as mid level heights rise for late evening into a part of the overnight with neutral height tendencies to end the night. The sfc high will also remain in place tonight. As the night progresses and into the day on Wednesday, the upper ridge will remain from the Gulf into the Southeast to the coast of the Carolinas and VA while the mid and upper trough progresses into the Plains and Central Conus. This will leave eastern KY in the warm sector south of the frontal zone from the Northeast to the Great Lakes into the Central Conus with multiple waves moving along it. This mid and upper trough will continue to approach the region on Wednesday night as the axis of the mid and upper ridge shifts east. At the same time, sfc high pressure also remains in place into the Southeast and the Southern Appalachians. Clearing skies should occur during the evening into tonight, especially in regard to low and mid level clouds. This is favored by the pattern and 12Z HREF ensemble means. This should set the stage for a moderate ridge/valley split as sfc and upper ridging dominates. With afternoon dewpoints mainly in the mid to upper 50s, fog development appears more probable in the valleys than recent nights, especially if the forecast low to mid 50s low temperatures materialize. Any fog should lift and dissipate within a couple of hours after sunrise on Wednesday and give way to a milder day compared to today. The airmass should also be drier overall and min rh should trend down. Currently, forecast max temperatures of 86 at JKL and 85 at LOZ would tie records for the date. Another moderate magnitude ridge/valley temperature split follows for Wednesday night with sfc high pressure centered in the Atlantic, but extending into the Southeast and Southern Appalachians dominating. Low should again be in the low to mid 50s for valleys and low to mid mid 60s for ridges. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 249 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2026 The long term period opens Thursday with a shortwave over the Mid- Mississippi Valley and Upper Great Lakes. As this system lifts northeast throughout Thursday shower and thunderstorm chances increase heading into the late afternoon and early evening. Southwesterly winds and warm air advection allow for temperatures to warm into the 80s through the afternoon, some 10-15 degrees above normal. As showers taper off heading into Friday morning, temperatures cool into the low to mid 50s in valleys, and low 60s along ridge tops. A ridge of high pressure briefly builds over the area ahead of a deepening trough over the Rockies and Northern Plains. Relatively quiet weather is expected, with a mix of sun and clouds, and temperatures warming into the 80s. Because of the approaching system, clouds begin to increase overnight and through Saturday. Low temperatures Friday night cool into the 50s and low 60s. Saturday, the upper level trough will be over the Upper Great Lakes, with a warm front extending through the Great Lakes into the Mid- Atlantic, while a trailing cold front will extend through the Upper MidWest, the Mid and Lower Mississippi valleys, with showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of it. Shower and storm chances will increase over Eastern Kentucky from northwest to southeast through the afternoon into the evening and overnight hours. Showers and storms are then expected to taper off from northwest to southeast through Sunday. Temperatures Saturday, ahead of the cold front, will warm into mid to upper 80s for most, under southwesterly winds. At night, with winds becoming west to northwesterly, cold air advecting in behind the cold front will cool temperatures into the mid to upper 40s. Sunday, as remaining showers taper off, the cold front is modeled southeast of the area. Temperatures will be much cooler across the area, some 20-25 degrees cooler in fact, ranging in the low to mid 60s. Clouds should diminish through the afternoon as the trough begins to depart the area. However, Eastern Kentucky looks to be on the backside of the trough heading into Sunday night. With cold air still advecting in under light northwesterly winds and clearing skies, temperatures are expected to drop into the mid to upper 30s in the valleys and lower 40s elsewhere. High rises look to occur Monday, leading to mostly sunny skies, and highs in the low to mid 60s. Temperatures remain depressed under northwesterly winds. At night, temperatures cool into the upper 30s to near 40. Tuesday, a shortwave looks to skirt through the Upper Great Lakes and its main effects should remain north of the area. conditions will feature a mix of sun and clouds under southerly winds and seasonable temperatures warming into the low 70s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) ISSUED AT 805 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2026 VFR conditions prevailed at the 00Z TAF issuance and should hold through the period. The region will remain in the warm sector between a sfc ridge of high pressure extending from the Southeast to the western Atlantic and a frontal zone from New England across the Great Lakes and into the Plains. In between the sfc systems, south to southwest winds will average between 5 and 10 kts early before becoming light and variable. Low and mid level clouds decrease further this evening while winds should also diminish with the loss of daytime heating, though some LLWS from the southwest at up to 40 kts will be possible overnight. South to southwest winds should pick up again into the 5 to 12 kts range from around 14Z to the end of the period - once the nocturnal inversion mixes out. A few gusts to around 20 kts are also possible. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...GINNICK AVIATION...JP/GREIF  432 FXUS63 KMKX 150301 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1001 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Additional severe storms possible Wednesday afternoon if a front remains stalled across the area. If the front sets up south of the area, severe potential will greatly decrease but flash flooding will remain possible due to training convection. - Heavy rainfall could lead to additional periods of flooding this afternoon into Wednesday. Additional Flood Watches are possible especially tomorrow. - Additional windows for heavy rainfall, flooding, and severe thunderstorms Friday into Saturday. All severe hazards will be possible later Tuesday afternoon into the evening. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 1001 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Overnight through Wednesday: The elevated environment will remain unstable as we remain in the warm sector with upper divergence, weak vorticity advection, and mid level warm air advection overhead. This will allow for a few storms to percolate across portions of central and southern WI overnight. Given the lingering high MUCAPE, a few storms could approach marginal severe levels at times and bear watching. The threat will wane as the night goes on and as the LLJ veers. The effective surface boundary should be stationed over northern IL Wednesday morning as a weak mid level shortwave trough tracks across the region. Southern WI may see scattered showers and a few thunderstorms with the overriding of the boundary in the morning and midday Wed. A deeper shortwave trough will track across NE Wed morning and into western IA by early evening. The associated surface low on the leading edge should help lift that boundary into southern WI during the late afternoon and evening hours. Storms within the warm sector will have the potential for severe-level hail and wind. Heavy rain is a threat with this system. We may need an areal flood watch. Meanwhile, there will be a steady northeast wind off Lake Michigan and keep the air stable with low clouds and patchy fog, especially north of Milwaukee. How far inland the fog/stratus get Wed morning is still uncertain. Wherever the boundary between the lake air and the warm, unstable air lands Wed afternoon, this will be an extra focus for low level helicity and the potential for a brief tornado along this boundary if storms become strong enough. Cronce && .LONG TERM... Issued 1001 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Thursday through Tuesday: That deeper shortwave trough that went across IA Wed night will track across southern WI Thursday morning. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected with this feature, especially in the morning with deeper moisture still in place over the region. The chance for showers and thunderstorms will linger into the afternoon. As the deeper moisture departs during this time and we heat up, the low level lapse rates will increase to allow for instability (up to 1000 j/kg) to develop. A lake breeze should push inland and help to trigger some of the showers/storms. Look for the precip chances to exit by sunset. High pressure will pass through Thursday night and lows will dip into the 40s wherever the lake breeze hit, so bisecting southern WI from east to west. Friday morning and early afternoon look quiet, but we will be getting primed for the next system to arrive Friday late afternoon and night. Low pressure tracking across the northern Plains on Friday, in response to a high-amplitude upper trough, will cross Lake Superior Friday night. A strong cold front will slide across WI from west to east late Friday night through Saturday morning. Showers are thunderstorms are expected within the warm sector Friday afternoon/evening and also along the cold front. Scattered showers are possible behind the front during the day Saturday. Strong cold air advection will follow, so low temps should dip down to around or below freezing Saturday night on brisk westerly winds. The models dry out the atmosphere quickly, but if there happens to be any lingering moisture, the precip type would chance to flurries/snow. Brisk westerly winds will persist through Sunday. Finally, high pressure will dominate and give us dry weather through Monday or Tuesday. The weather pattern has a large degree of uncertainty beyond Monday between the models. Cronce && .AVIATION... Issued 1001 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The main area of storms exited southeastern WI but there are a few lingering showers and thunderstorms that will persist into the overnight hours. There should be a lull in the shower activity Wednesday morning but IFR ceilings and visibility may work into east central WI including Sheboygan overnight into Saturday morning on moist ENE winds off Lake Michigan. There is a lot of uncertainty about how far inland and southward these low ceilings and fog will expand. The next chance for more widespread showers and thunderstorms will arrive in southern WI late Wednesday afternoon and taper off during late evening. Cronce && .MARINE... Issued 1001 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A stationary front will remain parked over the middle third of the lake into tomorrow, slowly sinking south to the southern end of the lake by Thursday morning. Winds will remain southerly south of the front and modestly breezy, while winds north of the front will remain light and variable to northerly during this time. The front will clear the lake as a cold front Friday, before low pressure of 29.6 inches approaches from the west. Thunderstorms are possible over the southern third overnight into Thursday morning, then Thursday late afternoon and night. Thunderstorm chances return along a cold front Friday night. Cronce && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...Dense Fog Advisory...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565- LMZ567-LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872 until 7 AM Wednesday. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee  541 FXUS66 KSEW 150303 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 802 PM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .SYNOPSIS...A frontal system will continue to move through Western Washington tonight with lowland rain, breezy winds, and mountain snowfall. Post frontal unsettled conditions will continue on Wednesday. Drier, cool weather Thursday and Friday before a system will approach the area offshore over the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...Both latest satellite and radar clearly show the back edge of the current front passing over the Olympic Peninsula, with the northwest corner of the landmass already entering into the post frontal environment. This still means the majority of W WA is in for a wet evening and at least some part of the tonight period...with the Cascades checking out last as activity there is slated to go into early Wednesday morning. Winds have eased, allowing for inherited Wind Advisories to expire. Breezy conditions and occasional gusts will still be a thing into tonight...and so some isolated wind-related impacts will still be possible...but the threat for widespread strong and gusty winds has largely wrapped up. All according to plan, or so it seems, as inherited forecast handles this well. Thus, no need for any evening updates. For additional forecast details, please refer to the Previous Discussion section below. From Previous Discussion...A frontal system continues to move across western Washington this afternoon. Steady rain through this evening with a brief convergence zone progressing across central Puget Sound tonight. South winds will remain breezy, peaking this afternoon and evening. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for the Grays Harbor County coast, as well as Admiralty Inlet and Everett region, with gusts of 35 to 45 MPH in these areas. Winds remain breezy elsewhere, with gusts ranging 25 to 40 MPH. Increasing foliage will make trees more susceptible to damage, which may result in localized power outages. Snow levels around 4000 feet this afternoon will fall to 1500 feet by Wednesday morning, resulting in snow for the Cascades and Olympics, including the Passes. Snow will continue at times for the Cascades through Wednesday. Total snowfall amounts of 8 to 14 inches are expected for Snoqualmie and Stevens Passes, with locally higher amounts near 18" around White Pass and Mount Baker. A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect. Snow will subside Wednesday night. An upper low will move across the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday. This will result in colder temperatures aloft, and increasing instability. Scattered showers will be around Wednesday, with the threat for isolated thunderstorms. The probabilities for thunderstorms peak between 15 to 25 percent, primarily during the afternoon. Lightning, breezy winds, as well as small hail may accompany any heavier showers. Drier conditions will develop Wednesday night as conditions begin to clear for some areas. Temperatures by Thursday morning will fall into the low to mid 30s, resulting in potential frost concerns. Will also need to monitor freeze conditions for portions of south Sound. Otherwise, increasing sunshine is expected during the afternoon Thursday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...Weak upper ridging brings drier conditions on Friday. Will need to monitor the frost potential once again, mainly from Olympia southwards Friday AM. An upper low will track towards the west coast over the weekend. Uncertainty remains in ensembles in the location of the upper low by Sunday, which impacts the eastward extent of precipitation over the weekend. At this time, the highest probability for rain over the weekend is along the Olympic Peninsula, but precipitation chances extend through Puget Sound, especially by Sunday. The bulk of the energy then moves towards California by early next week, which may result in drier conditions for western Washington. However, slight chance of precipitation remains in the forecast at this time. A warming trend exists over the weekend with highs reaching the low to mid 60s. JD && .AVIATION... A frontal system is currently moving across western Washington this evening. Rain will continue across the area through the next few hours, with most of the rain departing after 06Z Tue. MVFR cigs prevail in the rain but some locations are already beginning to see improvement. Expecting behind the front for most locations to have VFR cigs with scattered lower clouds at times. Scattered showers will move in across the area overnight into the early morning hours, and a convergence zone is expected to develop behind the front late this evening and dissipate quickly, and then again on Wednesday. It will likely start north of the metro then slowly move southward during the day Wednesday. Outside of these areas, expecting mostly VFR conditions with a broken cloud deck for much of the day. In these showers and the convergence zone, there will be a 15-25% chance for some of these to be thunderstorms (highest probabilities Wednesday afternoon), but currently there is not high enough confidence to include this in most of the TAFs at this time. Southwest winds 10-20 kt with gusts 20-30 kt will this evening until the front moves through. Winds will gradually taper overnight into Wednesday becoming south to southwest 5-10 kt through the overnight period. KPAE may temporarily change to N between around 03-12Z Tue, and then again after 20-23Z as another convergence area develops. There remains some uncertainty as to how far south it may go. KSEA...MVFR conditions continue with low ceilings and temporary reductions in visibility in light to moderate rain. Rain will cease this evening behind the frontal passage at around 03-05Z Tue. Clouds should lift and break apart for low-end VFR conditions. MVFR conditions are then favored to develop early Wednesday morning before VFR conditions return late-morning and through the remainder of the day Wednesday. Scattered showers will continue throughout the day in the vicinity of the terminal. A post-frontal convergence zone is favored to develop overnight into Wednesday, but will likely stay north of the terminal until later in the day on Wednesday. 15-25% chance of thunder as well on Wednesday, through currently confidence too low to include in the TAF. S winds 12-15 kt with gusts 25-30 kt will continue until around 06Z Wed, after which winds will ease and begin to turn more SE overnight. SW winds prevail during the day on Wednesday at 5-10 kt. Models are starting to indicate a potential wind switch around 00- 01Z Wednesday to N. 62 && .MARINE...Stronger south winds continue through this evening as a weather system moves across the waters. Gale force wind gusts are expected at times for the Coastal Waters, as well as Puget Sound and Admiralty Inlet through this evening. SCA winds are expected for other waters into the evening. Onshore flow increases this evening into tonight with a strong westerly push through the Strait of Juan de Fuca. Gale Warnings have been issued for the central and eastern portions of the Strait of Juan de Fuca this evening into tonight, with gale force west wind gusts expected. Winds will slowly subside late tonight into Wednesday for the majority of waters. Northwest winds increase for the outer Coastal Waters late Wednesday before subsiding through Friday. Another weather system will approach the waters offshore over the weekend, resulting in increased southerly winds for the Coastal Waters. Seas will build to 9 to 12 feet this evening. Seas will remain around 8 to 10 feet Wednesday before building to 10 to 13 feet Wednesday night. Seas will subside Thursday through Friday. JD && .HYDROLOGY...No river flooding the next 7 days. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM PDT Wednesday for Cascades of Pierce and Lewis Counties-Cascades of Snohomish and Northern King Counties-Cascades of Southern King County- Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit Counties. Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for Olympics. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Wednesday for Grays Harbor Bar-Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands- West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Gale Warning until 2 AM PDT Wednesday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Gale Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for Admiralty Inlet- Puget Sound and Hood Canal. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm. && $$  027 FXUS64 KOHX 150307 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1007 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1000 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - There is an enhanced fire danger on Wednesday due to dry fuels, low RH values and gusty winds. - Expect unseasonal warmth to last through Saturday. - There are medium to high rain/storm chances Thursday and Thursday evening, and again this weekend. Severe weather threat is low. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday Night) Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Upper ridging influences will continue on Wednesday with dry, warm, and breezy conditions. This will continue the enhanced fire risk with drier than average fuels for this time of year. RH values will drop below 30% during the afternoon with 10-15 mph winds. A shortwave trough will approach the area Wednesday night with a low chance of a shower prior to 12z. The higher rain chances will be after sunrise on Thursday with medium to high chances through the day. There is a low chance that a couple additional storms develop over west Tennessee in the afternoon and move into our western counties. Some cooler mid level temperatures will be in place during the afternoon providing some steeper lapse rates along with 30-35 kts of effective bulk shear. IF storms manage to develop in the afternoon and make it into our western part of the CWA, there is a low chance they could produce gusty winds and large hail. This is a low conditional threat for our western counties but CAMS are favoring any afternoon storm development to stay in west Tennessee. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Behind the shortwave, upper ridging slides back in with highs in the mid to upper 80s on Friday. Some locations may even touch 90 degrees. A cold front will approach from the west on Saturday with showers and a couple storms ahead of it. Rain chances will increase Saturday afternoon and continue Saturday night. Behind the front, temperatures will be cooler on Sunday with highs in the 60s and lows in the upper 30s to low 40s Sunday night. Temperatures will begin to rebound on Monday as high pressure slides east of the area and weak southerly flow returns. While we do have a couple of rain chances over the next seven days, amounts will not do much to put a dent in the drought. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 606 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions persist this taf cycle. Clouds are thinning out with the lowest cigs around 5 kft. Southerly winds will relax below 10 kts overnight, becoming southwesterly and breezy after 15Z. Gusts between 15-25 kts can be expected through Wednesday afternoon with passing mid to high level clouds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 64 86 65 83 / 0 0 0 60 Clarksville 67 86 66 83 / 0 0 10 80 Crossville 57 82 60 81 / 0 0 0 30 Columbia 62 85 63 84 / 0 0 0 50 Cookeville 60 83 62 80 / 0 0 0 40 Jamestown 59 83 60 81 / 0 0 0 40 Lawrenceburg 61 84 63 83 / 0 0 0 40 Murfreesboro 62 86 63 84 / 0 0 0 50 Waverly 66 86 67 83 / 0 0 10 70 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Reagan LONG TERM....Reagan AVIATION.....Baggett  690 FXUS64 KOUN 150325 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1025 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1019 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Strong to severe thunderstorms possible Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday. - Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will return several days this week, especially across portions of northwestern and far western Oklahoma. - Dry and cooler weather this weekend. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 126 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A dryline is expected to mix towards the east today, with the potential for multifaceted hazards across the area. To the west of the dryline across western and northwestern Oklahoma, near critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected to materialize. RH values are expected to get down well into the teens across the aforementioned area, in addition to west- southwest winds of 20-30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. Along and east of the dryline, the environment will be characterized by dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s, which will foster instability values over 3000 J/kg. An approaching mid-level trough will continue to move across the Desert Southwest today, with southwesterly flow aloft overspreading the southern Plains. With the aforementioned approaching wave, mid-level heights are expected decrease, which is a good indication of large scale ascent. The 12Z RAOB at OUN indicated a very unstable and slightly capped environment. The anticipation is for daytime heating to mix out any additional inhibition by this afternoon, which will prime the environment for storm development. That being said, storms are likely to develop along the dryline this afternoon and spread eastwards through the evening and overnight hours. The downstream environment will support severe weather, especially as initial storms develop. The main hazards for storms this afternoon and evening will be very large hail (potentially up to 4 inches), damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes. The tornado potential will increase after 00Z, especially for locations north of I-40, where a 50-60 kt LLJ is expected into Wednesday morning. There is some short term guidance that would suggest additional rounds of storms overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Confidence in this is not high, but certainly possible. Bunker && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 126 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The aforementioned wave approaches the area Wednesday, with additional strong to severe storms expected across much of the area. A dryline will once again mix eastward Wednesday afternoon, potentially near the Highway 81 corridor. Any storms that do form along this boundary will have the potential to become severe. All hazards will be possible with the strongest storms that develop. Storms generally should move off to the south and east during the evening hours. Most of the day Thursday will be dry. However, near-critcal fire weather conditions may emerge across western Oklahoma and western north Texas Thursday afternoon. Afternoon highs are expected to warm into the upper 80s and lower 90s with afternoon humidity approaching 10-15 percent. Bunker && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 221 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 On Friday, surface low pressure will deepen quickly, as an upper trough moves across the central and northern Rockies. How far east drier air will mix into far western Oklahoma during the afternoon is uncertain. However, there is the potential for a small area of near- critical to critical fire weather conditions across far western Oklahoma and northern Texas. The bigger story will be the potential for supercell storms to develop along and near a dryline during the afternoon and evening. Better forcing across the northern half of Oklahoma should favor better storm coverage. Still a lot of detail to be worked out, but Friday has the potential for rather impactful storms. Additional storms will likely form along a cold front which is expected to move across most of the area Friday evening and night. The front is expected to push well to our south and east on Saturday, so much of the upcoming weekend is expected to be dry with highs in the 60s to lower 70s. A southerly wind is expected to increase on Monday with most areas remaining dry. The exception may be a few showers across southern Oklahoma. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1019 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR/MVFR ceilings expected this TAF period. Area of showers/storms currently ongoing is expected to continue to move east and be east of most, if not all, TAF sites by 06Z. The exception could be KDUA if this activity develops further south. There is a chance for additional isolated/scattered showers/storms to develop overnight into Wednesday morning but too difficult to tell if this will affect any TAF sites. However, will take another look at current radar trends before sending TAFs. Another round of storms, some of which could be severe, will be possible Wednesday afternoon/evening with chances at all TAF sites, except for maybe KWWR. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 64 79 59 85 / 60 60 40 0 Hobart OK 62 85 52 89 / 60 40 20 0 Wichita Falls TX 65 84 60 90 / 70 50 20 0 Gage OK 53 82 46 89 / 20 10 10 0 Ponca City OK 63 80 56 85 / 60 60 50 0 Durant OK 65 79 64 86 / 80 80 50 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...13 SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...25  847 FXUS64 KBRO 150325 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1025 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1013 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Key Messages: - Breezy conditions will continue this week. - A moderate risk of rip currents will likely prevail through the week. - Temperatures above average through this week with a cool down late this weekend with the passage of a cold front. - Unsettled conditions return this weekend in association with a cold front moving through Texas. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1013 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 High pressure over the Gulf into the southeastern US will maintain warm, breezy, and dry conditions through the week. Temperatures will continue to warm through Saturday with low to mid 90s expected for much of the region by Thursday. Coastal areas will remain in the upper 70s to upper 80s. Moderate to strong southeasterly winds will continue this week with Friday being the breeziest day. While we look to stay below Wind Advisory criteria, this will be something we monitor closely. As we head into the weekend, a cold front moving through Texas will bring rain and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon through Monday. The aforementioned front will move through Deep South Texas on Sunday which will also be the day of our highest rain chances, which have gone up slightly to 50-60%. Cooler temperatures are expected in wake of the front with highs only in the 70s for Sunday. A moderate risk of rip currents is expected through Wednesday and will likely increase by this weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 606 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions will prevail early this evening with continued breezy southeasterly winds. Later tonight, low clouds will move in the MVFR conditions expected and will linger into Wednesday late morning. Winds will remain elevated through the night into Wednesday with gusts of 25-30 kts. && .MARINE... Issued at 1013 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Generally favorable marine conditions are expected on the waters off the lower Texas coast with moderate winds and waves. Could see some caution conditions at times each day through the weekend due to an enhanced pressure gradient. Headed in the late week, winds will increase ahead of a frontal boundary which could lead to Small Craft Advisories on Friday for the Laguna Madre and nearshore waters. In wake of a frontal passage on Sunday winds will pick up again with Small Craft Advisories likely. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 73 87 73 88 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 70 89 70 90 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 74 91 74 93 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 72 92 72 94 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 73 79 74 80 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 71 85 71 85 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...68 LONG TERM....68 AVIATION...68  110 FXUS64 KLUB 150335 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1035 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1031 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Mainly dry weather is expected through the rest of this week and into the upcoming weekend. - Elevated to near critical fire danger will develop each afternoon through Friday, especially on the Caprock. - Much cooler temperatures arrive this weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Wednesday night) Issued at 1031 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A positively tilted upper level trough axis just east of the Four Corners as of late Tuesday evening will continue to shift eastward over the next 24 hours, with flow aloft over West TX consequently weakening and becoming more zonal. At the surface, a dryline will reside near the edge of the Caprock through Wednesday morning, with lingering isolated shower and thunderstorm activity set to end before midday. The dryline will quickly exit to our east by early Wednesday afternoon as deep downslope westerly low level flow establishes across the region in response to expansive surface troughing developing over the TX Panhandle. Storm chances Wednesday afternoon and evening are therefore expected to remain to our east, with a warm and dry day expected Wednesday across the forecast area. RH values will fall to or below 10 percent, which combined with west winds around 15 to 20 mph will result in elevated fire danger across much of the region. Quiet and seasonably cool conditions are expected Wednesday night with lows mainly in the 40s to low 50s by Thursday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1031 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Flow aloft will back to a more southwesterly direction Thursday into Friday as deep mid/upper level troughing advances over the intermountain west. However, surface moisture will be slow to return to our area with dry downslope winds set to continue through the day on Thursday, leading to another afternoon of warm temperatures and increased fire weather concerns. Low level moisture will finally increase Thursday night into early Friday, but is expected to be rather shallow. A subset of guidance hints at some light precipitation on Thursday night, but a general lack of deeper moisture and forcing for ascent casts doubt on the potential for anything more than a deck of low clouds and some light rain showers or weak storms heading into Friday morning. This moisture will be quick to exit by later in the day Friday, with dry west winds strengthening and bringing another period of increased fire danger to most of the area on Friday afternoon. Otherwise, a strong cold front is still on track to pass through the region early Saturday which will bring much cooler temperatures for the weekend. The weekend also looks to remain dry across our area, but low chances for showers and storms will return by early next week as moist low level return flow reestablishes across the region. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 614 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 LBB could see visbys briefly reach MVFR in the next 1-2 hours from BLDU and stronger gusts near 35 knots. LLN recently fell to 4SM. Otherwise, TS are expected to remain well outside all terminals with only some -SHRA overnight. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1031 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 West winds will gradually increase after sunrise Wednesday, with 20 foot wind speeds expected to peak around 15 mph on Wednesday afternoon. A much drier airmass is also expected Wednesday, which combined with warm temperatures will result in RH values in the single digits. RFTI values up to 4 will be almost entirely RH-driven given the relatively light 20 foot wind speeds, so this should keep fire danger capped at elevated. A Fire Danger Statement is in effect for most of the Caprock and southern TX Panhandle from 12 PM to 8 PM Wednesday. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...93  454 FXUS64 KBMX 150338 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1038 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1030 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026 - Fire danger will remain elevated through the week due to recent dryness, low relative humidity values, and increased winds at times. Outdoor burning is highly discouraged. - Near-record high temperatures are expected each day this week with only minimal rain chances in the forecast. Drought conditions will worsen. && .DISCUSSION... (Wednesday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1030 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026 Water vapor imagery reveals another active evening across the country as a series of shortwaves rip across the Plains. Upper ridging in place across the southeast is helping to deflect this activity away from the region. The ridge will begin to retreat to the south as another shortwave peels across the Plains Wednesday into Thursday. This will open a brief window during the day Thursday for a low chance of rain across our NW areas. Confidence is low in this scenario as moisture recovery does not look too impressive. Once again, "drought begets drought". Upper ridging quickly builds back in as the shortwave pushes off the east coast. As we head into the weekend, a stout upper low lifts across the Plains towards the Great Lakes region. An associated cold front will be sent our way, moving into our NW areas Saturday night and clearing our SE counties Sunday afternoon. Our rain chances look a bit more favorable with this system as our latest suite of guidance hints at a healthier plume of moisture pooling across the region. We will continue with a mention of low to moderate (20-60%) rain chances late Saturday through Sunday morning. Much drier air quickly filters back into the region as we close out the weekend and head into the work week. This will likely lead to some increased fire weather concerns early next week. Our warming trend will continue over the next several days. Highs each afternoon will generally climb into the mid 80s. Friday looks to be the warmest day as several locations have a 30-70% chance of exceeding 90F. It's likely that we see some high temp records broken as we close out the work week. To add confidence here, the ECMWF EFI/SOT guidance continues to hint at an anomalous heat event for this time of the year. These warm temps and dry conditions will likely lead to worsening drought conditions over the next week. 95/Castillo && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 554 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026 VFR conditions prevail through the majority of this TAF cycle. The one exception will be a brief period of MVFR vis at TCL around sunrise. We have seen this develop the last couple mornings so would expect this to happen once again since we have not seen a pattern change. Otherwise, light winds overnight will increase to around 10 knots through the morning hours tomorrow. 95/Castillo && .FIRE WEATHER... Elevated fire danger conditions will be a concern daily as we head through the week. MinRHs on Wednesday will drop into the 25-35% range once again. Moisture slightly increases Thursday and Friday with minRH vales from 30-40%. However, ongoing drought conditions will contribute to an elevated fire weather threat. Winds will be a bit breezy with gusts from 10-15 MPH. Outside of a low chance of rain across our northwest areas, dry conditions will remain in place through the work week. A cold front is forecast to move through Saturday night, which will bring a low to medium chance for showers and storms. Significantly drier air moves into the region in the wake of the front. We will need to keep a close eye on our fire weather threat as RH values are forecast to fall into the 20-30% range early next week. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1102 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026 Record High Temperatures: April 15: KBHM: 88/1936 KEET: 85/2012 KANB: 89/1972 KTCL: 88/1972 KMGM: 91/1972 April 16: KBHM: 89/1977 KEET: 84/2013 KTCL: 90/1955 KMGM: 90/1925 April 17: KBHM: 90/1955 KEET: 86/2013 KTCL: 92/1955 KMGM: 90/1955 April 18: KBHM: 91/2006 KEET: 90/2006 KANB: 90/1955 KMGM: 91/2006 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 54 85 56 85 / 0 0 0 10 Anniston 57 85 58 85 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 59 86 61 85 / 0 0 0 10 Tuscaloosa 56 85 60 85 / 0 0 0 10 Calera 56 86 58 86 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 59 86 60 85 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 56 87 58 87 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 56 86 57 86 / 0 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...95/Castillo AVIATION...95/Castillo  890 FXUS64 KHUN 150340 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1040 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1040 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Low relative humidity values, dry fuels, and gusty winds will result in elevated fire weather conditions on Wednesday. - There are low to medium chances (20-50%) of showers and storms on Thursday. - Medium chances (40-60%) of showers and storms return on Saturday. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of Tonight and Wednesday) Issued at 1040 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Persistent upper level ridging over the Southeast and surface high pressure over the Deep South will maintain a tranquil forecast with no rain through Wednesday afternoon. Some upper level clouds will continue to stream overhead tonight, but it will still be a bit too dry for much fog to form. It'll also be fairly warm thanks to the aforementioned pattern, as lows only drop into the mid 50s to lower 60s later tonight. Another day of dry weather and breezy conditions is then on tap for Wednesday. Hi-Res guidance indicates that dew points should dip into the 40s/50s (lowest over NE AL) by the afternoon, resulting in minimum relative humidity values in the lower 30 percent range. Expect sustained south/southwest winds around 10 mph with gusts up to around 20 mph through the day as well. Although not quite meeting Red Flag criteria, elevated fire weather will continue to be a concern. Please be cautious as any fires that develop will likely spread more rapidly than expected! In addition, it will be fairly warm as forecast highs top out in the mid 80s for most locations. For context, the record highs for April 15th are 88 degrees in Huntsville and 89 degrees in Muscle Shoals (both set in 2006). Furthermore, our forecast highs are at least ten degrees above normal for this time of year. Therefore, although it's not "summertime heat", it will be warm for this time of year. Make sure to drink plenty of water and take breaks in the shade if you are outside for long periods of time! && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday Night through Friday Night) Issued at 1040 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Upper level ridging begins to push eastward later on Wednesday as a shortwave approaches the Midwest. This feature will traverse the upper Ohio Valley through the day on Thursday, with another shortwave forming and moving over the mid-Mississippi River Valley Thursday evening. This second shortwave will eventually progress over the lower Ohio Valley and portions of the Tennessee Valley Thursday night into Friday. Upper ridging will then develop over the Southeast quickly in the wake of these shortwaves on Friday. Ultimately, what this means for sensible weather for our local area is a low to medium chance (20-50%) of showers and storms Thursday afternoon and evening, with the highest chances over NW AL. However, as we've been alluding to over the past couple of days, not much rainfall is expected (less than a quarter of an inch). Additionally, while there will be the presence of a 80-90 knot upper jet aloft Thursday afternoon and evening as well as ample bulk shear and some instability, there appears to be a decent cap (CIN) over our area. Therefore, anticipating any storms that develop to be sub-severe. Dry weather (no rain) will then return for Friday. Perhaps the bigger concern will be the increasing temperatures that are forecast to reach the upper 80s to around 90 degrees on Friday. These forecast highs will flirt with record highs for April 17th (90 degrees for Huntsville, 92 degrees for Muscle Shoals; both in 2006). It'll also be warm at night, with lows mostly in the lower 60s. Even though it's not summertime yet, it's still important to remember heat safety as these temperatures are well above the seasonal norm for this time of year. If you have outdoor activities or work outside, make sure to drink plenty of water and take frequent breaks in the shade! && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 1040 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A deepening surface low is predicted to eject northeastward from Lake MI into the James Bay vicinity on Saturday/Saturday night in conjunction with a negatively-tilted shortwave (embedded within a broader trough extending from northern Canada into the southern Plains). Strengthening SSW flow is expected to occur throughout the cyclones warm sector, and will contribute to another warm day featuring highs in the mid 80s for our region. Latest extended range model data continues to suggest that showers and a few thunderstorms may develop by mid-day near a prefrontal surface trough extending from western KY into northern MS, and although some of this activity could spread eastward into the western portion of our CWFA late Saturday afternoon, it appears as if precipitation chances will be highest with passage of the cold front Saturday evening. Forecast soundings still depict a layer of warm/stable air aloft (rooted around 4-6 kft AGL) for much of the day, which should gradually begin to erode Saturday evening as a narrow axis of dewpoints in the l-m 60s surges northward ahead of the front and synoptic scale forcing for ascent strengthens ahead of the approaching 500-mb trough. Should an updraft become sufficiently tall to take advantage of mid-level flow that will be increasing to 50-60 knots, brief strong wind gusts may occur. However, at this point, we expect generally weak/low- topped convection, followed by a 2-4 hour period of light postfrontal rain, with rainfall amounts ranging from 0.10-0.25" (SE) to 0.5-0.75" (NW). Present indications are that rain will end around or shortly before 12Z Sunday in the southeastern portion of the forecast area, with gusty NNW winds advecting a cooler, drier airmass into the region throughout the day. Highs on Sunday will fall back into the m-u 60s (even with abundant sunshine), followed by cool overnight lows in the l-m 40s. Prevailing NW flow aloft to the east of a longwave ridge across the western CONUS will ensure a continuation of dry weather on Monday/Tuesday, although a couple of weak disturbances traveling through the ridge may result in an increase in mid/high-level clouds. Regardless, the onset of SE return flow will lead to a gradual warming trend with highs returning to the mid 70s by the end of the period. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 605 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions will continue through at least early Wednesday evening. Southerly winds will subside to around 5 knots or less this evening and persist overnight. Winds will then increase once again to be around 10 knots (sustained) with gusts to between 15-20 knots by late Wednesday morning/early afternoon. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM....26 LONG TERM....70/DD AVIATION...26  917 FXUS65 KRIW 150347 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 947 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A potent winter storm system is forecast to bring widespread precipitation, wind, and freezing temperatures to the entire area beginning late Wednesday until Friday evening. Confidence in measurable snowfall continues to increase for lower elevations. - There is high (90% +) confidence in a hard freeze (28 degrees or below) across low elevations Friday morning and Saturday morning, with the potential for widespread lows in the teens early Saturday morning. - Temperatures will warm this weekend into next week, with the next weather system arriving by Tuesday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 100 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Today's weather is on track to be the last tranquil day across the area before the upcoming weather system. Weak flow with relatively dry mid-level air will be present behind the departing trough and allow for mostly sunny skies this afternoon. Expect highs to be in the 60s east of the Divide and in the 40s to 50s west of the Divide. As mentioned in the morning discussion, isolated light snow shower chances (20%) exist this afternoon across higher elevations as a weak disturbance traverses the state. Breezy conditions are expected west of the Divide as this disturbance passes over this afternoon. All attention continues to be focused on the upcoming winter weather system that is forecast to impact the region Wednesday night through Friday. This system, a strong cold front, is expected to bring widespread wind, precipitation, and cold. As the trough and associated cold front makes its way into the northern Rockies on Wednesday, expect strong southwest winds Wednesday afternoon as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the cold front. Frequent wind gusts of 25 mph to 40 mph can be expected across most of the area and result in elevated fire weather conditions. Relative humidity values are expected (70-90%) to remain above 20 percent. The first push of the winter weather arrives across western Wyoming Wednesday afternoon. Across the western mountains, the most likely period of heavy snow will occur early Wednesday evening through midday Thursday as the cold front makes its push east. Snow totals have also trended up across the Wind River Mountains beginning Wednesday evening, so this area has been added to the Winter Storm Watch. Precipitation will then spread east across the rest of Wyoming Thursday afternoon, most likely as rain. The cold push currently looks to not arrive until after sunset on Thursday for most low elevations. Thanks to strong cold air advection, this will feel like a good punch of cold behind the front with 700mb temperatures rapidly dropping from positive 2 celsius to near negative 10 celsius in a matter of hours. This strong northerly push will also result in gusty winds, especially near Buffalo where there is an 85% chance of 45+ mph gusts. Given the moisture content with this system and the cold temperatures, there is fairly high confidence (80%+) in most low elevation areas seeing measurable snowfall by Friday morning. However, no highlights will be issued at this time for locations east of the Divide due to the greatest impacts occurring in 2+ days (Thursday night into Friday midday). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 145 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Finally a more active pattern across Wyoming trying to bring precipitation! The latest system is a trough ejecting into the central Plains from the Four Corners region. This system is set a little too far south to bring a significant amount of precip, but still enough energy to produce precip for areas of Casper Mountain, the Bighorns, and higher elevations of the Tetons. But this does set the table for a potent late winter storm diving out of the PacNW into the northern Rockies. This system starts to spread precip into the NW mountains during the day Wednesday before slowly moving east Thursday and Friday. The system will be accompanied by ample moisture, so the potential for meaningful accumulations is improving. The system will also be accompanied by a strong push of colder air, so most precip will be snowfall, especially Thursday night into Friday. This includes most of the lower elevations as well, with the current forecast totals of 2 to 5 inches. Winter Storm Watches have been posted for the northwestern Mountains and YNP for this system, and may need to be expanded is the snow forecast increases with later updates. The other concern with this next system is the significant cold air push coming with and behind the next system. Cold temperatures will arrive during the day Thursday, with lows Thursday night in the low to mid 20s east of the Divide and in the teens west of the Divide. The main core of the cold air then settles in on Friday, with the core of the cold air setting in Friday night. Probabilities of temperatures falling below 28 degrees are high (>90%), with current forecast lows reaching the teens. The complicating factor will be how quickly cloud cover clears out behind the weather system, allowing for radiational cooling. If clouds hold longer, these teens would likely not be achieved. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 946 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions prevail through Wednesday afternoon. A weather system will approach from the west during the TAF period, with increasing clouds Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening. Rain and mountain snow will move into western Wyoming Wednesday morning, with light rain at KJAC by 20Z. As rain transitions to a mix Wednesday evening reductions to MVFR may occur at KJAC. Have added PROB30 groups at KBPI and KPNA from 03-06Z Thursday for MVFR conditions and -SHRA. Little to no precipitation will make it east of the Continental Divide through the TAF period. Wind will remain quite breezy at KRIW until 10Z when the gusty northwesterly drainage wind should subside. Wind will increase by mid to late morning Wednesday for most terminals and certainly by early afternoon for all terminals. Wind will be strong from the southwest, which is typical ahead of a weather system. Mountain obscuration will become more prevalent Wednesday afternoon, mainly around western mountains. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday evening through late Thursday night for WYZ001-002-012. Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday evening through Friday afternoon for WYZ014-015. && $$ UPDATE...Gerhardt DISCUSSION...Straub AVIATION...Rowe  384 FXUS63 KBIS 150350 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1050 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers from northwest to south central North Dakota late this evening into the overnight hours. - Dry and warmer on Wednesday, with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s. - Wide range in temperatures from northwest to southeast Thursday as a cold front pushes into the state. - Turning much colder with periods of rain and snow Thursday night through Friday, with medium to high chances for light accumulations of snow. - Well below normal temperatures Friday through Saturday, followed by a gradual warm-up into early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1047 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Intensity and coverage of shower activity has decreased late this evening, but the areal footprint of isolated showers has actually expanded into northwest North Dakota, reaching all the way to the Canadian border. The broader area of isolated showers lies in a weak surface trough that is directly under a 500 mb shortwave. Aside from south central North Dakota, which is closer to the base of the upper trough, model guidance is inconsistent with development and maintenance of isolated showers through the night. Will continue to update the forecast with observed trends as needed, but do not anticipate more than a hundredth of an inch of rain at most at any given location. UPDATE Issued at 705 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Scattered showers have developed over southwest North Dakota, with a steady increasing trend in coverage since late afternoon. At 6 PM MDT, the most concentrated shower activity was located at the northern end of a 500 mb shortwave from around Beach to Killdeer, and along a surface trough from around Richardton to Hettinger. The northern showers have access to higher MLCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg, and very infrequent lightning is being detected with these. This activity is mostly expected to dissipate after sunset, but the base of the 500 mb shortwave could prolong shower activity along the South Dakota border into the overnight hours. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 345 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A digging western U.S trough will bring a chance of rain and snow followed by much colder temperatures late in the workweek and into the weekend. Currently, stratus has cleared in the west and continues to erode over central and eastern ND. Afternoon CU has developed over portions of western ND however. For the rest of this afternoon and tonight, there remains a low probability of an isolated shower due to the combination of daytime heating and forcing from an approaching shortwave currently over northeast Wyoming. Forecast soundings show a shallow and narrow region of instability so thunder is not anticipated and any weak shower activity that does develop will likely produce little if any qpf reaching the ground. Quasi-zonal upper level flow continues through the day Wednesday before backing to the southwest in response to the upper level trough dropping into the Pacific Northwest. Wednesday should be an very pleasant day with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s with not a lot of wind by North Dakota standards. The upper trough tracks into the northern Rockies Wednesday night bringing the initial chances for precipitation to northwest ND late Wednesday night. Thursday through Friday...The upper trough moves into the Northern High Plains Thursday, then traverses the forecast area Thursday nigh through Friday. At the surface a surface low develops over the Mondak region and is situated along the ND/SD border at 12Z Thursday. The low pushes east during the day with an elongated surface low from northern Minnesota into northeast Colorado by 00Z Friday. This will produce a very tight temperature gradient from northwest to southeast Thursday. Highs are expected to range from the lower 40s far north to the mid 70s far southeast. Winds will also be picking up during the day from northwest to southeast as the surface trough pushes east. There are some (mainly) chance pops in the west and far north Thursday but only the far northwest looks to be the most likely area to see more than a trace, maybe a few hundredths of an inch of rain. The best precipitation chances will occur Thursday night through Friday as the upper level trough moves through the forecast area. A cluster analysis shows that there's a 60/40 split between a more compact wave moving through the forecast area versus a split wave with better energy north and south of the forecast area. It looks cold enough that both solutions will bring snow. It also looks like the forcing and moisture available are limited enough that qpf is pretty light with a broad swath of 0.10 to 0.15 from southwest ND into north central to northeast ND. The more compact wave would yield a more widespread swath of QPF, but overall the differing impacts between the two solutions looks to be minimal. Our latest NBM guidance is depicting a medium probability for an inch of snow extending from southwest into northwest and north central ND, with low to very low probabilities elsewhere. This is the 24 hour probability ending at 18Z Friday. Two inch probabilities then taper to low for this same area. Probabilities for at least a hundredth of an inch of snow are medium to high across all of western and central ND, so most will likely see a little light snow with this system. It will breezy to windy as the rain changes to snow and temperatures will drop well below freezing over much of western and north central ND, so even though snow accumulations are not expected to amount to much, there could be some minor impacts to travel Thursday night into Friday morning where we do see the combination of snow and winds with freezing surfaces. Once the snow ends on Friday the rest of the weekend into early next week looks to remain dry as upper level ridging builds over the region. It will be cold again Friday night into Saturday morning with Saturday morning lows possibly into the teens over parts of the west and north and highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s. We do begin a gradual warm-up Saturday through early next week with highs climbing back into the 60s and lower 70s by Monday and Tuesday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1047 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period, although fog cannot be ruled out at KJMS and surrounding areas later tonight into Wednesday morning. Isolated showers may continue to meander through western and central North Dakota overnight, but no impacts to aviation are expected. South to southwesterly winds around 5-10 kts overnight, followed by southwesterly to westerly on Wednesday around 10-15 kts. Some higher gusts are possible across the north Wednesday afternoon. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Hollan DISCUSSION...TWH AVIATION...Hollan  960 FXUS63 KLSX 150350 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1050 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A low chance (20%) exists for an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm this afternoon/evening. A better chance (40-60%) for a round of strong to severe thunderstorms exists overnight. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary threat. - An additional chance for strong to severe thunderstorms exists Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. Once again, the primary threats are large hail and damaging winds with lower potential for tornadoes. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Wednesday Night) Issued at 324 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Analysis of recent GOES-East mid-level water vapor imagery reveals longwave troughing near the Four Corners Region with ridging across the eastern U.S., placing our area under a southwesterly regime. Strong and persistent southerly flow, continuing to advect Gulf moisture into the region, has helped to boost instability, with MLCAPE values well over 2,000 J/kg (99th climatological percentile) for much of the area. The latest ACARS soundings out of KSTL (18Z) reveals a slightly capped environment, with MLCIN around -20 J/kg correlated with an 800mb capping inversion. A few isolated showers, with occasional flashes of lightning have been pushing eastward across IL this afternoon, struggling to intensify. With the past behavior of these showers, indication is that a weak cap is still in place for the time being, supporting the KSTL ACARS sounding. Some high-res guidance fires an isolated thunderstorm or two across the area this afternoon/evening across an environment that is favorable to support supercells, should a storm overcome the inversion, tapping into the anomalous instability available. As a result, confidence is low in an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm this afternoon/evening. The best chance for this would be the result of a subtle mid-level forcing mechanism (shortwave) passing over and/or localized areas of surface and moisture convergence occur. All of which even high-resolution guidance can't resolve with detail or accuracy, lending to the lower confidence. Lastly, if scattered convective initiation occurs, storms that form would have potential to become severe with large hail and damaging winds the primary hazards. Further upstream, across OK/KS, CAMs are keying in on convective initiation this afternoon/evening, with eventual upscale growth leading to a remnant convective system approaching the region later this evening into the overnight hours. Model guidance reveals that this convection will be initiating off a more apparent mid-level shortwave within the southwesterly flow. With a larger scale feature at play that models are able to resolve, confidence is high in convective initiation across OK/KS and eventual upscale growth of storms into our area. Atmospheric instability across our area will steadily be decreasing with the loss of insolation, which is indicated well by forecast model soundings. As a result, this complex of thunderstorms is forecast to gradually weaken with time/eastward extent. However, these storms still has good potential to be severe across our area since HREF mean SBCAPE values are around 1,000-1,500 J/kg when these storms are modeled to enter the area. Any remaining severe thunderstorms would be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds, with a lower threat for tornadoes. On Wednesday, model guidance reveals a few subtle shortwaves propagating northeastward across the region on Wednesday that could result in a messier setup with more abundant showers and convection. Confidence is low in the potential regarding any lingering convection or additional rounds of storms originating upstream from OK/KS Wednesday morning and into the day. The evolution of daytime convection across our area will have a great influence on the severe weather threat that is realized Wednesday afternoon/evening. Kinematically speaking, Wednesday will feature greater shear as the mid/upper-level longwave trough out west ejects into the Plains by Wednesday afternoon. As a result, HREF mean 0-6km Bulk Shear steadily increases from Wednesday morning until Wednesday night/early Thursday, when it peaks around 40-45kts as the longwave trough advances over the area. Our greatest threat for severe weather is still forecast to be Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night as a cold front moves through northwest-southeast. As of now, the main hazards associated with this severe threat are large hail and damaging winds with a low risk for tornadoes. A severe weather threat may linger into early Thursday across parts of southeast MO/southwest IL, as that is where the cold front will take the longest to exit. Peine && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Next Tuesday) Issued at 324 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 NAM/GFS are in general agreement that a shortwave trough will move east of the area early in the day on Thursday. An attendant surface cold front/trough will move across Missouri/Illinois with only weak convergence along it will be enough to generate showers and scattered thunderstorms, mainly over the southeastern half of CWA (60-80% chance) of the CWA during the morning before shortwave ridging begins moving in from the west. Then it looks like there will be a period of dry weather on Thursday night as the ridge moves across the area before southwesterly flow sets up over the area on Friday ahead of trough that be moving across the Plains. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase late in the day Friday and especially Friday night as ascent from the trough and forcing from the associated surface front will move into the CWA during the night in an unstable and sheared environment. These storms look to be the result of upscale growth from storms that will develop in the Mid Missouri Valley on Friday afternoon and evening. There is good agreement in the medium range models with little spread in the LREF. This front is currently on track to move through the area on Saturday which would bring an end to the showers and thunderstorms from west to east. Even with this said, if the trough/front does speed up on Friday, then there will be a greater chance for severe weather here on Friday vs if is slows down, there would be the possibility we could see strong/severe thunderstorms on Saturday. By early next week, mainly dry weather is expected as northwesterly flow sets up over the area and a large surface high moves across the area. Very few (<10%) of the LREF members are producing precipitation over the area early next week. High temperatures will be in the 70s and 80s through Friday ahead of the front before temperatures drop to around 60 degrees on Sunday behind the front. There will be some rebound in highs by Monday and Tuesday as they climb back into the 70s. Britt && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 There is increasing confidence of dry weather initially, though chances of showers and thunderstorms should come up in central Missouri closer to 10 UTC. However, at least some weakening of the convection in northeast Oklahoma should occur, and this area may also just stay southeast of KCOU/KJEF. At least scattered showers and thunderstorms should impact northeast Missouri/west central Illinois Wednesday morning, so did add a TEMPO group for that. Further south, additional storms are expected to refire Wednesday early afternoon. The best chances are across the metro terminals across into Illinois. PROB30 groups continue for these sites. Finally, convection should develop along a remnant cold front in western Missouri by late afternoon and progress eastward during the evening hours. This activity may impact all terminals from west to east toward the end of the valid TAF. In any convection, visibilities may briefly go MVFR/IFR. Gusty winds are also possible, particularly during the evening on Wednesday. Gosselin && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX  362 FXUS64 KHGX 150350 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1050 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and humid conditions continue through the end of the work week with heat index values in the 90s Thursday/Friday. - Rain chances increase over the weekend as a cold front moves into the region. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible. - Seasonal conditions expected in the wake of the front going into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1050 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The warming trend continues as we add on a degree or two to Wednesday's high temperatures as they peak mainly in the mid 80s. Southwesterly flow aloft continues to filter in drier air...well...aloft with model guidance still reflecting much drier air above 850mb remaining in place through at least Wednesday. This drier air aloft also comes with warmer air aloft leading to a capping inversion. There is enough low-level moisture in place beneath the cap to squeeze out sporadic light rain/sprinkles...but not expecting anything of note. The potential exception to this is for the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods on late Wednesday afternoon/evening. Some thunderstorms may develop out in western/central Texas along the dry line, and there is a non-zero chance that a few storms skirt near our northern counties. Especially with with favorable placement of a jet streak (right entrance region) and a LLJ, but the storms will be fighting an uphill battle if they move this direction due to previously mentioned capping inversion. Unsurprisingly, the CAMs (me included) aren't that excited about anything more than showers making their way into Southeast Texas. PW values begin to increase towards the end of the work week, so some isolated streamer showers will remain possible. By the end of the work week, 850mb temperatures increase near the 90th percentile leading to high temperatures peaking in the upper 80s. The probability of high temperatures reaching the 90 degree mark are low on Thursday/Friday, but they aren't zero! Either way, the elevated low-level moisture will lead to heat index values in the low to mid 90s on Thursday and Friday. Low temperatures will be mainly in the upper 60s to low 70s through the work week. Going into the weekend is when the forecast gets interesting once again as a cold front approaches. An upper level trough with an embedded upper low will transition from the Pacific Northwest on Thursday to the Four Corners region by Friday. Surface low pressure subsequently develops through lee cyclogenesis near Oklahoma/Kansas. This low then travels northeastward towards the Great Lakes region, which pushes a cold front into Southeast Texas late Saturday afternoon/evening. Moisture convergence along the front leads to PW values surging near or above the 90th percentile (~1.57"). Showers and storms are likely along and ahead of the frontal boundary as it pushes through the region. Some of these storms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall with rainfall rates likely peaking in the 2-3+"/hr range. These storms will be more progressive than what we experienced over the past weekend, but these high rainfall rates could lead to localized instances of flooding especially in low-lying areas and areas with poor drainage. As a result, WPC has outlined areas generally north of I-10 in a marginal risk (level 1 of 4) of excessive rainfall on Saturday. Showers may linger into Sunday morning until the drier air fully filters in. Northeasterly winds will be a bit breezy in the wake of the front, especially near the coast through Sunday. A coastal Wind Advisory is possible. Since we are catching the tail-end of this front, surface high pressure looks to quickly move out to the east on Monday. There is some variance on exactly how quickly this occurs, but the general trend is for low-level moisture to begin to increase on Monday. This pairs with an embedded shortwave trough passing through the region, which brings us another chance of showers and storms. Don't worry, we won't end this discussion talking about rain chances! Let's take a look at probabilistic guidance for post-FROPA temperatures once again as you're gonna want to hear this! If you've been keeping up with the AFD's over the past few nights (first of all thank you for being dedicated...you're the real MVP), then you know the probability for high temperatures below 80 degrees on Sunday and Monday were already fairly high. Whelp...they got even higher! The probability for high temperatures below 80 degrees is now 85-100% areawide for Sunday and Monday! Probabilities gradually trend down beyond that, but still remain in the 60-90% range for Tuesday. But wait, there's more! The probability for low temperatures below 60 degrees has increased to 70-90% for areas north of the Houston metro area and 30-50% elsewhere for Saturday night. For Sunday night, these probabilities peak in the 60-90% range areawide (except along the coast)...and again they gradually trend downward Monday night but they are still generally in the 50-90% range. While the probabilities are trending higher for cooler temperatures behind the upcoming cold front, it's important to keep in mind that there's still plenty of time for the forecast to change and evolve. Don't worry, that won't stop me from getting excited either! :D Batiste && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 552 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Gusty southeasterly winds will continue over the next few hours and gradually decrease after sunset this evening. Intermittent periods of MVFR ceilings are already ongoing across the region, but will become increasingly widespread overnight into Wednesday morning. Ceilings lift back to VFR by the late morning/early afternoon with another round of gusty southerly to southeasterly winds. Expect sustained winds in the 10-15 kt range with 20-25 kt gusts through the afternoon. Sporadic light showers will be possible in the late morning/early afternoon, but the probability is not high enough to include it in any of the TAFs. Additionally, there is low-end potential for a shower/storm in the late afternoon/evening around CLL from convection developing out in west/central TX. Another round of MVFR ceilings expected Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Batiste && .MARINE... Issued at 1050 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Moderate onshore flow will persist into at least midweek, so small craft should exercise caution through at least Wednesday. There will be intermittent periods towards the end of the work week where winds increase near the caution flag threshold again. Due to the persistent onshore flow, slightly elevated water levels remain in the forecast throughout the week as P-ETSS guidance continues to reflect water levels reaching 2.5-3.0 ft above MLLW during times of high tide. This could result in some wave run-up along Gulf-facing beaches along with increased risk of rip currents. A cold front and associated showers/storms are expected to push offshore late Saturday/early Sunday bringing a period of elevated offshore winds and seas that will likely prompt Small Craft Advisories going into early next week. Batiste && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1050 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Still monitoring a couple of gauges that are currently cresting in action stage (as of Tuesday evening) in the Lavaca/Navidad River basin following Sunday's heavy rainfall event. The Navidad River at Morales (MRAT2) and at Strane Park (LSNT2) are currently cresting in action stage and are expected to fall out of it by Wednesday morning. These rises are based on routed flow from upstream. Remember that you can monitor updated river forecasts via the NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) Batiste && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 68 85 69 88 / 10 10 10 0 Houston (IAH) 70 85 71 87 / 0 10 0 10 Galveston (GLS) 73 80 74 80 / 0 10 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Wednesday evening for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375. && $$ DISCUSSION...Batiste AVIATION...Batiste MARINE...Batiste