415 FXUS65 KPIH 150401 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 1001 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Winter Weather Advisories start late tonight in the central Idaho mountains, Wednesday afternoon in the eastern and southeastern highlands. - Wind Advisories in the Arco Desert-Mud Lake region and Beaverhead-Lemhi highlands. - Snow Wednesday night and Thursday morning down to Snake River plain elevations. - Well below freezing temperatures Thursday and Friday nights. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1250 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Tonight through Fri will be payback for the mild winter eastern Idaho had experienced for the most part. Incoming low with a vigorous cold front will bring moderate to heavy snow in the high elevations, and lighter snow below about 6500ft elevation. Based on current temperature expectations, the snow above 7000ft elevation in the central Idaho mountains will be moderate to heavy up to 8500ft elevation. Lighter snow below that. Most affected zones are in the southern end, where the southwest flow has its best precipitation production. Elsewhere, moderate to heavy accumulations above 6500ft elevation should occur in the Island Park region in the northeast corner, and in the Bear River Range down at the Utah border. Elsewhere, expect light to moderate snowfall. Wed night and Thu morning will also bring some light snow to the Snake River plain/eastern Magic Valley, but it should stay below 2 inches and melt at least partially on Thu afternoon and completely by Fri afternoon. Temperatures will remain mild with the increase in cloud cover tonight and the southerly air flow, but a strong cool down is expected in highs and lows, with winter like overnight lows in the single digits and teens, and lower to middle 20s in the Snake River plain/eastern Magic Valley for Thu night. Finally, this storm and its surface cold front will bring strong wind that will produce windy to very windy conditions Wed afternoon and evening in the Arco Desert and Mud Lake region. It will extend northward into the Lemhi highlands for a portion of that time as well. On Thu, the high wind will shift southward as the wind shifts to northwesterly and so there will be better alignment in the eastern Magic Valley and lower Snake River plain. At least windy conditions (20 to 30 mph with gusts staying below 45 mph) should redevelop on Fri afternoon in these lower elevations. Fri night through next Tue afternoon...A transient upper level ridge moves in at the beginning of this period, allowing strong warming on Sat and Sun. There is a 60-40 split on if this ridge will break down on Sun night, with 60 percent of the clusters saying no. But by Mon afternoon the trough should pass through, bringing more rain and overnight high elevation snow that lasts to the end of the forecast week. Overnight lows appear to say 5 to 10 deg F below normal for the time of year through Sun night, so it will be no time to plant your garden. The shift to southwest flow and the return of cloud cover warms up overnight lows on Mon night. And despite the cloud cover, temperatures in the southerly air flow continue to warm for Mon and Tue. Afternoon wind continues breezy to windy during the afternoons, with Sat being the lightest. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1000 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A few mid to high level clouds will drift through overnight. Conditions worsening quickly tomorrow with light precipitation arriving in the morning. SUN will likely see IFR/MVFR conditions for a time tomorrow morning with some improvement by afternoon. Elsewhere, mainly looking at vfr conditions but windy. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for IDZ052-067. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Wednesday to 6 AM MDT Friday for IDZ060-066. Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT Thursday for IDZ071>074. && $$ DISCUSSION...Messick AVIATION...13  690 FXUS64 KMEG 150404 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1104 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1103 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Daytime high temperatures through Friday will be more typical of late May or early June, as a strong upper level ridge continues to dominate the Mid-South's weather. Friday is expected to be the warmest day of the week, with highs expected to approach 90 degrees across a majority of the Mid-South. - A passing upper-level trough will bring a medium chance of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday. There is low to medium confidence for a few strong to severe thunderstorms Thursday afternoon into early Thursday evening. - A cold front will pass through the Midsouth on Saturday, bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms. Sunny, cool, and less humid conditions will prevail for Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 1103 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 00Z upper air analysis features an upper-level ridge centered over Florida with southwest flow aloft present from the Southern Plains and across the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys. Warm and humid conditions are present across the Mid-South with late evening temperatures in the 70s with surface dewpoints in the lower 60s. An anomalously strong upper-level ridge will bring well above normal temperatures to the Mid-South through Friday. This ridge will remain in place on Wednesday, resulting in rain-free conditions and highs in the 80s. Short-term models indicate mid- level heights weakening late Wednesday night into Thursday morning as a shortwave trough moves across the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes Region. Short-term CAMs indicate upstream overnight convection will weaken late Wednesday night as it encounters a more stable airmass over the area. Favorable forcing will move away from the region during the morning hours with a secondary shortwave moving through the region Thursday afternoon into early Thursday evening. Favorable conditions for strong to severe thunderstorms are anticipated for Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening if the atmosphere can become unstable again. LREF joint probabilities of 1000 J/kg surface-based CAPE and Bulk Shear in excess of 30 kts indicate a medium (40-60%) chance of strong to severe thunderstorms along and north of I-40. Model soundings also indicate steep mid-level lapse rates and relatively straight hodographs which support a hail and wind threat for any severe thunderstorms. Shortwave ridging will build in behind this front for Friday with near record highs expected as temperatures approach 90 degrees for the first time this year. This warm period of weather will come to an end this weekend as a cold front brings another chance for showers and thunderstorms to the Mid-South. Neither of these systems are expected to produce enough rainfall to overcome the moderate to extreme drought conditions occurring this spring thus far. Slightly below normal to near normal temperatures are expected behind the front into early next week. Above normal temperatures are anticipated to make a return next week, but confidence remains low for additional rain chances with a large spread in model solutions for next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1103 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions will continue this issuance. Southwest winds will begin gusting up to 30 kts around 15Z along a tightened pressure gradient. Gusts are expected to largely drop out after 00Z, however, a few occasional gusts up to 20 kts cannot be ruled out at JBR/MEM. Marginal LLWS ahead of an upper-level trough is expected overnight Thursday at MEM. This same trough will also bring light showers to MEM early Thursday, however, confidence in timing was only high enough for a PROB30 at this time. AEH && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1103 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Fire weather concerns will be minimal throughout the week as MinRH remains above 30 percent. Wetting rain chances exist on Thursday for areas mainly along and north of I-40. A cold front will bring additional rainfall Saturday, across a broad portion of the Mid-South. Despite cool temperatures on Sunday, MinRH values Sunday afternoon are expected to drop below 30 percent over the majority of the Midsouth. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC AVIATION...AEH  561 FXUS63 KUNR 150404 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 1004 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions Wednesday and Thursday; a Fire Weather Watch is in effect Thursday. - Cooler with rain/snow behind cold front late Thursday through Friday. - Trending warmer Saturday through early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1003 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Shortwave trough is now crossing eastern portions of the CWA heading toward East River SD. KUDX radar shows lingering showers pushing toward the Missouri River Valley. Quiet weather is expected behind the wave for the rest of tonight through Wednesday as weak upper ridging builds in ahead of the next trough. Winds will be relatively light overnight and min temps will be in the 30s to lower 40s. Highs Wednesday will be in the upper 60s to upper 70s. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected tomorrow as RHs drop to 15% or less across portions of the area. However, winds should be relatively light, so no fire weather headlines are expected. Will let the overnight shift take a second look at the southern Campbell County area where winds should be a little higher, but right now conditions look too marginal and limited in area for a Red Flag Warning. Fire weather conditions may be critical on Thursday given breezy winds and dry RH mainly south of I-90 in western SD. Will continue with the Fire Weather Watch. The next noteworthy weather event will be later in the week as a longwave trough crosses the region. A cold front will cross the CWA Thu afternoon/evening. Some Pacific moisture will be available for a band of of rain to develop Thu evening, then change to snow overnight into Fri. Decent model agreement on the highest snow totals across NE WY, the northern Black Hills...perhaps into NW SD. Generally looks like 0.10-0.40" of QPF with 1-3" of snow...perhaps locally higher amounts across the higher Black Hills. Will wait to see how this system trends within medium range guidance. && .DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Tuesday) Issued at 1256 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Active southwesterly flow continues across the central US. Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough pushing through the Northern Plains and an upper low ejecting out of the Central Rockies along with an active southern stream as moisture streams into the Southern Plains. Surface low pressure is centered over southeastern NE with a weak gradient over the forecast area. Light showers/sprinkles continue across southwestern SD into south- central SD, although a dry boundary layer and lack of appreciable mid-level moisture will limit precipitation amounts. Showers will taper off this afternoon and early evening as subsidence overspreads the region. Warmer and dry tomorrow with temperatures in the upper 60s to upper 70s across the plains. Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions are expected with RH falling into the teens to low 20s, particularly portions of NE WY and SW SD, although there is some uncertainty regarding boundary layer winds/if frequent gusts > 25 mph will develop. Even warmer (along and south of I90 in SD) and drier Thursday ahead of a cold front with critical conditions possible; a Fire Weather Watch is in effect from the Weston County plains through southern SD. Cold front arrives Thursday evening bringing cooler air and potential for rain and snow. Upper trough will eject out of the Central Rockies, although recent guidance shows split flow developing. Pacific moisture advects into the region ahead of this trough, although appreciable moisture is lacking (precipitable water values ~100-125% of normal). Best chance of measurable precipitation across NE WY and the northern Black Hills (NBM prob QPF >0.25" ~30-55%). Warm air advection returns Saturday with temperatures trending warmer through the weekend into early next week with elevated fire weather conditions expected. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Wednesday Night) Issued At 1003 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued At 1256 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions expected tomorrow (Wed) across much of the area as RH falls into the teens to low 20s. Best overlap of low RH and stronger winds forecast across southern Campbell and Weston Counties in WY through southwestern SD into the southern Black Hills and foothills. Some uncertainty remains whether winds will reach critical thresholds to warrant a RFW; will continue to monitor. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect Thursday for the Weston County plains through southern SD as stronger southwest winds will develop ahead of a cold front. Daytime minimum RH will fall as low as 12-14 percent Thursday. Mid-level clouds ahead of the front and spotty high-based showers may complicate things Thursday by keeping temperatures a bit cooler and RH higher. However, plan for at least elevated to near-critical conditions Thursday (and Wednesday). && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for SDZ321-322-325-326-332>335. WY...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for WYZ317. && $$ UPDATE...13 DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...SE AVIATION...13 FIRE WEATHER...SE  275 FXUS64 KAMA 150404 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1104 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1027 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 -Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected Wednesday through Friday for the majority of the combined Panhandles. -Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible for the far eastern combined Panhandles on Friday. -Low temperatures Friday and Saturday night may drop to at or below freezing for portions of the northern combined Panhandles. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 1027 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 We continue to watch a few very light rain showers for the far eastern Texas Panhandle out ahead of the main dryline. Overall coverage will diminish through the overnight period. Otherwise, continuing warm and dry conditions for the Panhandles throughout the short term forecast period. Specifics in the fire weather conditions can be read further in the fire weather discussion of the AFD. Overall through for Wednesday, a lull in the main H500 height gradient will relax winds a bit. However, relatively poor RH recovery from the previous night will still result in more widespread elevated fire weather conditions, coupled with slightly cooler temps behind a weak cold front that should stall in the northern Panhandles Wednesday afternoon. High temperatures on Wednesday will range from the lower 70s in the NW Panhandles to upper 80s in the far SE TX Panhandle. Dry and warm conditions are expected to continue for Thursday with the next central Rockies system moving east, this should help steepen the main H500 gradient for the western Panhandles for breezy conditions to return. Otherwise, warm and dry with highs on Thursday ranging from the lower 80s in the western Panhandles to lower 90s in the eastern Panhandles. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1027 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Depending on the timing of surface features coming together, the potential is there for some thunderstorms in the far eastern combined Panhandles for Friday. If areas out ahead of the incoming cold front, along with a slower moving dryline could tap into decent MUCAPE and 0-6k bulk shear values around 40 kts for a brief window Friday afternoon, strong to severe storms for the eastern TX Panhandle cannot be completely ruled out. Most guidance however supports more critical fire weather conditions to return to the majority of the Panhandles on Friday. Behind the main cold front on Friday, much cooler temperatures near to below average for mid April will filter in for the coming weekend. In fact, overnight temperatures may get at or slightly below freezing from Friday night and Saturday night. Make sure to check back for updates to the forecast, especially those starting their growing season activities. Temperatures should return to above average towards the end of the forecast period as southwesterly surface winds return. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 621 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions are expected throughout the 00Z TAF period at all TAF sites. Winds will generally be out of the southwest at 10-20 kts with higher gusts at times, especially within the first 3-6 hours of the TAF period. Cloud coverage of few to sct will be expected throughout the TAF period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1027 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Elevated fire weather conditions are expected tomorrow for the majority of the Panhandles with critical fire weather conditions are expected Thursday and Friday. With critical fire weather conditions expected on Thursday and Friday, min RH values will be as low as 7 to 9 percent. With breezy southwesterly winds, max RFTI for both days will range from 5 to 7, with highest values in the western combined Panhandles. ERC percentile will range from the 80th to just over the 90th percentile across all the Panhandles, illustrating the unfortunate setup of abundant fuels for these critical conditions. Will have to watch closely on Friday. If the cold front comes through the Panhandles faster, overall duration of conditions will be much less compared to Thursday. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for TXZ001>014-016>018-317. OK...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for OKZ001>003. && $$ SHORT TERM...29 LONG TERM....29 AVIATION...29  623 FXUS64 KEPZ 150409 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1009 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 958 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - After a calmer Wednesday, breezy again Thursday into Friday with elevated to critical fire weather conditions. - The weekend will be cooler with a low chance of rain on Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 958 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Some pesky light showers continue to develop just S of the Int'l border, so PoPs have been adjusted once again to reflect current radar trends. CAMs have struggled mightily with this activity, which should end around midnight. Rain rates will be light as long as precip reaches the sfc. After a breezy to windy few days early this week, a calmer day is forecast for Wed. The shortwave trough ejects into the central Plains, allowing the pressure gradient to loosen. Some lingering breezes are expected with gusts to 20-25 mph in the afternoon under mainly clear skies. A deep upper trough moves into the northern Rockies on Thu, resulting in SW flow through the column. Lee sfc troughing is generated across the central and southern High Plains with breezy southwest winds forecast. The sfc low is nudged SE on Fri as the base of the trough pushes through the southern Rockies, shifting our winds westerly. Fri looks to be the windiest day of the period, approaching advisory level for the high terrain and east slopes. Blowing dust will be a hazard both Thu and Fri. Dry conditions persist, although some higher clouds may stream in from the subtropical jet. Behind the upper trough will be a sidedoor front that looks to arrive Sat AM, bringing some cooler temps and breezy N-NE winds. The sfc high settles to the east early next week, giving us moist, breezy SE flow off the Gulf for a short time. Low rain chances return as a result Sun/Mon, mainly E of the RGV. There is a disagreement in moisture content between the Euro and GFS ensembles with the GEFS more bullish on moisture and rain chances. Most of the moisture is flushed out into midweek as zonal flow aloft returns. Temperatures will be seasonably mild through Fri, then falling to below normal this weekend behind the front. We'll rebound to above average late in the forecast period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 958 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Lighter winds tonight with some gustiness to the upper teens Wed afternoon from W-SW. Scattered -SHRA continue to develop near KELP with low confidence in when the activity will dissipate. Best guess is by the start of this TAF period, but adjustments may be needed. Models have not handled this activity well. Mainly SKC expected behind the showers. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1205 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Elevated fire conditions again today as we see afternoon winds of west 15-25 mph with gusts to 40 mph, combined with min RHs in the 15-23% range. Remaining dry through at least Saturday, with breezy afternoons again Thu/Fri, and back to elevated to near-critical fire conditions with much lower humidity. Min RH: Lowlands 7-12% through Saturday, increasing to 18-28% Sunday and Monday. Mountains 8-18% through Saturday, increasing to 20-35% Sunday/Monday. Vent rates very-excellent through Friday, then fair-good Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 52 78 51 83 / 20 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 49 75 47 81 / 20 0 0 0 Las Cruces 43 74 43 80 / 20 0 0 0 Alamogordo 44 73 44 80 / 20 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 31 51 34 56 / 20 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 45 74 47 79 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 36 68 41 72 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 41 77 42 82 / 10 0 0 0 Lordsburg 38 73 40 79 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 52 76 53 82 / 20 0 0 0 Dell City 46 78 40 84 / 20 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 53 82 49 87 / 20 0 0 0 Loma Linda 48 71 49 76 / 20 0 0 0 Fabens 51 80 48 85 / 20 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 46 76 44 81 / 20 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 50 76 51 81 / 20 0 0 0 Jornada Range 40 75 42 80 / 10 0 0 0 Hatch 41 78 40 82 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 47 78 45 83 / 20 0 0 0 Orogrande 44 73 44 79 / 20 0 0 0 Mayhill 36 65 37 69 / 20 0 0 0 Mescalero 33 62 36 67 / 10 0 0 0 Timberon 36 60 37 66 / 20 0 0 0 Winston 30 68 34 71 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 41 73 44 77 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 38 73 39 79 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 31 68 36 72 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 34 71 38 74 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 34 73 37 78 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 35 70 39 74 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 38 71 42 74 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 40 74 42 79 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 40 74 41 80 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 41 76 44 80 / 10 0 0 0 Cloverdale 40 70 46 73 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...39-Aronson  256 FXUS63 KOAX 150415 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1115 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe thunderstorms continue to impact portions of southeastern Nebraska and southwestern Iowa overnight. Large hail, gusty winds and torrential rainfall are expected. Training thunderstorms may result in flash flooding. - Additional thunderstorm chances are expected Wednesday and again on Friday. Continue to monitor the forecast for severe weather potential. - Much colder air arrives Friday night/Saturday morning. Lows both Saturday and Sunday mornings will fall into the 20s to low/mid-30s. Additionally, snow chances return to portions of the forecast area Friday night/Saturday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1111 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The forecast period begins with ongoing showers in northern Nebraska and a few strong to severe thunderstorms along the Kansas/Nebraska border. These thunderstorms have been kicking off along a boundary extending from northwest of Concordia, Kansas to northwest of Fremont, Nebraska to north of Council Bluffs, Iowa. DCAPE values are currently in the 800-1100 J/kg range. SBCAPE values range between 1000 to nearly 3000 J/kg. ML lapse rates range from 7-8C/km with LL lapse rates around 6.5-7.5C/km. The main concerns with this line of storms will be large hail and gusty winds. Also of note with tonight's convection is the potential for some flooding. Precipitable water values are around 1.0+ inches along and south of the boundary. Training thunderstorms along and south of the boundary could result in some locations getting quite a bit of rainfall. We will continue to monitor the potential through the night. Heading into Wednesday morning, the low will continue to lift east- northeast. Additional shower/thunderstorm activity is expected as moisture wraps around the low. A few strong to severe thunderstorms will again be possible with hail and wind being the main threats. An isolated tornado cannot be entirely ruled out. Thursday continues to look like our best drying out day as a ridge moves over the region. WAA sets up with highs returning to the upper 70s to mid-80s. Friday continues to be a day to watch closely as we move closer to the event. Low pressure will develop on the lee side of the Rockies Thursday night. An attendant cold front will slide into the region through the day with much colder air pushing in behind it. The cold front appears to be moving into the region slightly faster than yesterday's runs. Areas ahead of the front can expect highs ranging from the mid-70s to low 80s, while areas behind it may struggle into the mid-50s. Warm Gulf air will be streaming into the region through the day. An upper trough will also be arriving heading into the latter part of the day, bringing additional lift to the region. Strong to severe storms are expected to develop along the cold front Friday afternoon and evening with all hazards possible. In addition to the potential for severe storms ahead of the cold front, areas in northern Nebraska behind the front may receive a rain/snow mix, becoming all snow. The snow chances will push south of I-80 heading into daybreak, with rain/snow possible for areas from Friend to Hallam to just east of Council Bluffs. Precipitation chances should decrease heading into the afternoon with just a few showers remaining. Anyone with agricultural interests or outdoor activities will want to monitor the weekend forecast as colder temperatures and potential wintry weather returns to the forecast. Saturday morning temperatures have trended slightly colder, with northern Nebraska expecting temps in the upper 20s. Areas closer to the Kansas/Nebraska/Iowa/Missouri border will fall into the low to mid- 30s. Sunday morning lows will be even colder with more widespread 20s for lows and most areas falling below the freezing mark. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 626 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 KOFK: VFR conditions persist at the terminal this evening. Expect the possibility for a few showers and maybe an isolated storm after 05Z. Additional chances for showers/storms will be possible Wednesday morning. Winds will remain out of the north or northwest through the TAF period. KOMA: VFR conditions continue for now at the terminal. West winds will shift to the north over the next couple of hours. Thunderstorm chances will increase after 02Z, continuing overnight. Ceilings are expected to lower to MVFR levels by daybreak, persisting through much of the morning before improving in the afternoon. Although not included in the TAF at this time, there is a small chance of a few thunderstorms coming into the vicinity of the terminal after 19Z Wednesday. There is still some uncertainty in where specifically they will develop and if it will impact the terminal directly. KLNK: VFR conditions persist through the evening. Winds are going to be shifting shortly at the terminal as an outflow boundary moves in from the north. Thunderstorms have developed west of the area, from west of KEAR to near KOLU. These storms will move to the northwest with additional storms firing up along a warm front. There is potential that a few of these storms do make it into the vicinity of KLNK, so a mention was added into prevailing conditions. For the rest of the forecast period, ceilings fall to MVFR levels. There is an additional chance of some showers or storms impacting the terminal after 18Z; however, due to TAF length, complexity, and still some uncertainty of where these showers/storms develop, the mention of them was omitted from prevailing conditions for now. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ANW AVIATION...ANW  079 FXUS66 KSGX 150417 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 917 PM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Warmer Wednesday with high temperatures near normal. Stronger onshore flow will spread cooling inland on Thursday with southwest to west winds for the mountains and deserts gusting to 35 to 45 mph. Winds turn offshore on Friday with warming for the coast and valleys and continued cooling for the mountains and deserts. Northeast winds along and below the coastal slopes of the mountains will gust to 35 to 45 mph. Warmer inland with weaker winds for next weekend with high temperatures warming to around 5 to 10 degrees above average on Sunday. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... Evening update... Skies are mostly clear this evening over land areas with a few patches of low clouds beginning to develop off the coast. Low cloud coverage will be sparse much of the night, then the HREF has a 50-60% probability of low clouds in the coastal areas by sunrise Wednesday morning, clearing by mid-morning. Weak transitory upper level ridging moving over the region on Wednesday will bring warmer weather with highs near mid-April normals. Previous discussion... An area of low pressure over the Pacific Northwest will descend into the Great Basin on Thursday, generating an increase in onshore flow across the region. Gusty west winds will occur in the mountains and deserts, with the exact speeds dependent on the location of the low and how tight the pressure gradient becomes. There is about a 10-15 MPH spread in wind gusts values from the NBM's 25th to 75th percentiles, indicating some uncertainty. A combination of high resolution models and NBM guidance in yields gusts 30-45 MPH across the deserts with local gusts over 50 MPH in the mountain passes. As the base of the trough passes closer to SoCal and over the Desert Southwest, winds will transition to a Santa Ana wind pattern by Friday. This will bring north and east gusty winds to coastal slope and western valley locations. Again, the exact track of the low will determine how windy it becomes, but wind speeds do look similar to that of Thursday in these regions, probably closer to 20-35 MPH across valleys of Orange County and the Inland Empire. The Santa Ana wind regime will bring a slight warm up to the coastal basin with slightly cooler weather across the deserts. A transient ridge enters the picture by this coming weekend, bringing less wind and warmer weather across the board. This will bring highs near to slightly above average with 70s and 80s west of the mountains and reaching into the 90s across the lower deserts. Another large area of low pressure system will move closer to the West Coast by early next week. Model guidance continues to show differences in timing, strength, and placement of this system. This will bring cooler and windier weather with the increased chance of precipitation. How much precip and what time (if any) occurs, is still...up in the air. Confidence continues to increase that this weekend will be dry, but we will continue to watch a change in the forecast pattern slated for early next week. && .AVIATION... 150400Z...Coasts/Valleys...Mostly clear skies and VFR conditions expected through this evening. Low clouds based around 2000 ft MSL will develop over nearshore waters around 10-13z Wed. 40% chance for coastal TAF sites to experience BKN cigs 12-17z. Clouds scatter out by late morning. Low clouds may redevelop over waters and coastal San Diego County late Wednesday evening, but coverage will likely remain patchy as SCT-BKN high clouds AOA 20 kft move overhead. Mountains/Deserts...Mostly clear with VFR conditions will prevail through Wed evening. && .MARINE... Wind gusts could briefly reach 20 kt Thursday afternoon and evening. Otherwise, no hazardous marine conditions are expected through Sunday. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...SS/APR AVIATION/MARINE...KW  302 FXUS62 KJAX 150427 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1227 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Moderate Risk of Rip Currents For Area Beaches - Extreme to Exceptional Drought Continues. Dry & Warmer This Week. Critically Low Minimum Humidity Values inland each day. Dry Conditions Will Support Increase Risk of Fire Spread - Fog Potential Each Morning through Friday && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main Highlights Today and Tonight: - Near record warmth inland areas with highs near 90F - Locally dense fog possible during late night/early morning hours - Wildfire risk remains very high Dry, sunny, and warm weather continues today with high pressure dominating over the area. Elevated fire danger persists today with low minimum relative humidity values over inland locations. High temperatures will range today, with an onshore breeze keeping coastal temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s, hotter as you go inland with some locations reaching 90 degrees and near record levels this afternoon before the Atlantic sea breeze pushes inland later this afternoon with gusts to 20-25 mph possible. Enough moisture coupled with calm winds early this morning and again late tonight will prompt inland fog development over most of northeast Florida and southeast Georgia, with highest chances for patchy dense fog just west of I-95. Low temps continue in the 50s inland and around 60F along the Atlantic Coast. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... - Fog potential each morning especially inland - Dry & warm weather persist as temperatures near or break record highs on Friday High pressure extending from Bermuda will remain over the area through the end of the week. Warm and dry weather persists as southerly flow continues to bring in warm and dry air into the area. Daytime highs will continue to trend above seasonal norms as temperatures rise into the lower 90s for most locations, with some locations potentially matching or breaking record highs on Friday. Cooler temperatures in the lower to mid 80s along the coast as onshore flow will help to keep temperatures from rising into the 90s. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. As mentioned in the previous forecast package, only other noteworthy weather impact will be patchy to areas of fog inland each morning, with patchy "superfog" possible near smoke from any ongoing wildfires. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: - The dry and warm weather persist into the weekend. - Morning fog potential to continue each day. High pressure begins to shift towards the Atlantic on Saturday ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. A weak southerly flow as the high pressure moves offshore. Dry conditions persist as much of the showers along the front is expected to dissipate before reaching the local area. With dry air filtering in behind the front, the status quo of limited chances of precipitation will persist into the next week. High pressure builds and stretch southward along the eastern seaboard, bringing the potential for another period of breezy onshore flow beginning late Sunday Night/early Monday Morning and lingering into Tuesday. Another day of record high temperatures on Saturday with highs reaching into the 90s and isolated locations reaching into the mid 90s. By Sunday, temperatures will cool a bit with the approaching front. By the start of the upcoming week, temperatures will be at near normal as highs will be in the mid 70s to low 80s. Lows will be a little above normal during the period cooling to near normal by Monday and Tuesday nights. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Predominantly VFR conditions forecast, though patchy and shallow fog may develop at coastal airfields as wind calms, leading to temporary restrictions to IFR through 12z. Light diurnal winds will begin with a southwesterly flow at or below 10 knots, shifting east to southeasterly through around 10 knots with the sea breeze. Expect the sea breeze wind shift around 17z at the coast, 18z at KCRG, and around 19z at KJAX and KVQQ with gusts around 15 knots. Winds start to decrease after sunset and becoming near calm again by the end of the TAF period. && .MARINE... High pressure ridging will be the prevailing feature through the week and into the weekend, with flow gradually shifting more southeasterly to southerly over the next several days. Next frontal passage is expected Sunday Night with potential for Small Craft Advisory conditions on Monday. Rip Currents and Surf: Solid Moderate Risk of Rips will continue for NE FL/SE GA beaches in the SE/onshore flow the rest of the week with surf/breakers mainly in the 2-3 ft range. && .FIRE WEATHER... - Low Inland Min RH Values Each Day This Week High pressure remains over the area, continuing the dry, sunny, and very warm conditions for inland locations through the weekend. This, combined with the exceptional/extreme drought, will continue the elevated fire risk across the area. Critically low Min RH values inland will repeat each afternoon lowering to the mid 20s to low 30s into Saturday. Wind flow pattern will prevail from the southeast Today, south on Thursday, southwesterly Friday with the Gulf seabreeze moving further inland and the Atlantic seabreeze staying closer to the coast. Dispersions remain in the good range through the week, with higher dispersions likely to develop this weekend. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy inland fog will develop each morning this week. There will be potential for Localized "superfog" each morning near the vicinity of any smoke from ongoing wildfires. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures at NE FL/SE GA climate sites: April 15: JAX 90/2006, CRG 91/2001, GNV 92/1936, AMG 91/1954 April 16: JAX 90/1972, CRG 91/2011, GNV 90/1967, AMG 92/1967 April 17: JAX 93/1967, CRG 90/2006, GNV 90/1945, AMG 91/1967 April 18: JAX 94/1967, CRG 89/2018, GNV 91/1967, AMG 92/1967 April 19: JAX 92/1995, CRG 91/2013, GNV 94/2011, AMG 91/1968 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 91 58 91 60 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 79 61 81 64 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 87 57 90 60 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 81 58 84 61 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 90 55 91 57 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 89 55 90 59 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None. && $$  587 FXUS64 KMOB 150427 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1127 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1127 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Moderate to extreme drought, with little to no rain over the next 7 days, will exacerbate wildfire activity. - Patchy to areas of fog development, some of which could be dense, is possible over the next few nights. - A moderate rip current risk is expected for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches through Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1127 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 An upper trof advances across the Plains and much of the eastern states through Thursday night before exiting off into the western Atlantic on Friday. An upper ridge spanning much of the Gulf and the extreme southeastern states becomes oriented over the eastern Gulf up to near the Mid Atlantic coast through Wednesday, then retreats to the Gulf on Thursday. The upper ridge builds back into the region on Friday while a large upper trof advances across the western CONUS. This next upper trof amplifies while continuing across the eastern states this weekend, and an associated surface low is expected to bring a cold front through the forecast area Saturday night. Prior to the passage of the front, a surface ridge oriented along the northern Gulf coast will promote a warm southerly surface flow over the forecast area. Subsidence effects associated with upper ridge look to keep deep layer moisture sufficiently limited to continue with a dry forecast through Saturday. As the front moves through, have gone with slight chance to chance pops along and west of I-65 Saturday night with slight chance pops for Sunday. Dry conditions are expected to prevail for Monday into Tuesday. There is the potential for dense fog development overnight which will be monitored. Fog development is also possible again Wednesday night and Thursday night. Highs on Wednesday and Thursday will be mostly in the lower to mid 80s, and in the mid to upper 80s on Friday and Saturday. Highs on Sunday will be cooler and mostly in the lower to mid 70s then gradually trend to the mid to upper 70s by Tuesday. Lows tonight in the mid 50s to lower 60s trend to the upper 50s to lower 60s for Thursday night and Friday night, then turn cooler by Sunday night to range from the mid 40s well inland to the mid 50s at the coast. Overnight lows trend a bit warmer through Tuesday night to range from the lower 50s inland to around 60 at the coast. A moderate risk of rip currents is expected through Saturday. /29 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 601 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions this evening will likely be followed by IFR to VLIFR conditions in low clouds/fog across much of the area overnight. Conditions quickly improve to VFR Wednesday morning. Winds become calm or light and variable this evening, then a southerly flow around 10 knots develops on Wednesday. /29 && .MARINE... Issued at 241 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A light to moderate southeasterly flow continues through Wednesday, becoming more southerly by Thursday. Moderate to occasionally strong offshore flow returns by Sunday in the wake of a cold front. Small Craft Advisories may become necessary for Sunday and into Monday. /96 && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1127 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Ongoing drought conditions pose the potential to exacerbate wildfire activity for the next 7 days. While afternoon relative humidity values remain above critical levels through Sunday, drier air flows into the area on Monday which looks to result in relative humidity values dropping to 20-25% mostly over interior areas. /29 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 61 82 63 82 / 0 0 0 10 Pensacola 64 78 65 80 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 64 78 65 77 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 54 86 56 87 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 58 86 61 86 / 0 0 0 10 Camden 55 85 58 85 / 0 0 0 10 Crestview 56 86 57 86 / 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$  240 FXUS63 KFGF 150435 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1135 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a 20% chance for advisory level winter impacts from accumulating snow and gusty winds Friday into Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 306 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...Synopsis... Large scale pattern features a split in zonal flow over the Northern Plains, with a mid level shortwave east of our region. Surface high pressure is in place with stratus slowly starting to break up. Additional fog/stratus may redevelop later tonight after the current low clouds clear, with better chances for mainly aviation impacts in north central MN. Deeper westerly flow aloft will support deepening low pressure on the Lee side of the Northern Rockies and increasing southerly flow/WAA Wednesday through Thursday morning. A deepening mid/upper level trough over the Pacific Northwest builds eastward late this week into the weekend. The initial cold front arrives late in the day Thursday and may result in a large spread in potential high temperatures north to south (low 50s to near 80F depending on timing within our CWA). It will also bring chances for rain and snow back to our region from Friday through Saturday. As that trough passes, there is a strong consensus in mid/upper level ridging arriving by early next week, with rising heights reflective of increasing temperatures (60s/70s by Tuesday). This pattern also lowers the probability of measurable precipitation, though the orientation of the ridge/flow aloft may still allow for fast moving shortwave trough passages near our CWA. ...Winter travel impact potential Friday into Saturday... As stronger synoptic ascent and WAA in the 850-700 MB layer overspread our CWA several periods of light to moderate precipitation (mainly rain) should move west to east through our CWA Friday into Saturday morning. All ensembles at this time support the main closed 700MB low tracking over Manitoba, placing the potential for stronger frontogensis to the north, while most precipitation in our CWA will be driven by WAA or broader deformation on the back side of the 500MB low. While there is overall strong consensus on the larger scale track, smaller scale features at the surface (low track/frontal timing) still play a role in the potential for winter impacts. A larger number of ensemble members generally keep temperature profiles in place supportive of liquid with surface temperatures above freezing outside of the overnight/morning periods for most locations (limiting potential for accumulating snow or a wintry mix). In this scenario (80% chance) most areas would see little to no accumulation (better chance for 1" in the Devils Lake Basin). There is still a subset of members (20%) that support more organized deformation while temperature profiles are cold enough for all snow and have better chance for snow totals greater than 3". As ground temperatures are warmer, most of this will tend to be on grassy/elevated surfaces that may limit impacts outside of snow rates/wind reducing visibility where moderate/brief heavy snow would track. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1135 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Really no changes to the 6z set of TAFs from the 0z issuance. Fog will develop tonight, being most likely at KBJI, KTVF and KFAR. Fog may sneak into KGFK for a few hours around sunrise. Timing of fog is approximate in the TAF and it could shift a little earlier or later. For Wednesday, VFR is forecast, with south to southwesterly winds of 10 to 15 knots. Winds die down Wednesday evening. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DJR AVIATION...Rafferty  856 FXUS63 KDDC 150436 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1136 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Red Flag Warning continues through early this evening on strong southwest winds and RH's down to 15% - Increased fire weather risk Thursday to at least Near-Critical conditions as dry south winds resume west of Highway 283. - A more significant Critical Fire day likely west of the dryline on Friday (especially west of Highway 283) with severe weather risk east of the dryline (15% combined severe outlook east of Coldwater to Great Bend line) - Sub-freezing temperatures likely Saturday and/or Sunday morning as cold air mass drives south behind significant spring storm system. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 114 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Spring storm system #1 of 2 continued its approach on the Central Plains, centered near the Utah-Colorado line as of 1730Z. The enhanced, larger scale upward vertical motion with the approaching wave will allow the dryline to sharpen across south central KS into OK by late afternoon/evening, and the dryline will be very close to the southeastern corner of our DDC CWA (southeastern Barber County) such that we will need to keep some slight chance POPs in for strong/severe storm potential -- especially if any left-moving splits off of any supercells across northern OK clips Barber County. Any convective threat should end by mid-late evening as the larger scale storm system continues its push east tonight. On Wednesday behind the storm, models have trended a bit deeper/farther south with the upper wave, such that low level pressure gradient will remain tight enough to keep west-northwest winds higher than previously forecast, thus have collaborated with neighboring offices to bump winds up above NBM baseline to NBM75th percentile with a little bit of 90th percentile influence much of the day (resulting in sustained wind forecast of 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts). On Thursday, the low levels will begin responding to the next storm system -- a larger scale system with deeper surface low which will fully mature by Friday. A much colder air mass will also be involved with Friday's storm up across the northern High Plains, which will drive south toward northwest Kansas Friday afternoon. Meanwhile, a reshaped dryline will develop across southwest/south central KS (likely positioned somewhere between Dodge City and Pratt) by late afternoon. A coupled upper level jet structure will take shape over the warm/moist air mass, allowing large scale forcing for ascent to result in further cyclogenesis/frontogenesis -- setting the stage for what looks to be a rather significant severe weather outbreak across the eastern half of Kansas and much of Oklahoma. The western edge/early development of this potential severe weather outbreak will likely include at least the eastern/southeastern one-third of the DDC CWA, and SPC has maintained a 15% outlook from roughly Coldwater to Great Bend and points east (higher 30% outlook just east of our DDC CWA). An intense cold front with very sharp temperature and significant pressure rises will move across western Kansas Friday evening, and models are certainly suggestive of at least a 1 to 3 hour period of potential high wind at the onset of frontal passage. The official forecast does not yet reflect this, but look for the wind forecast to continue to increase in strength (perhaps significantly) as confidence in timing and strength of the cold front increases. Fairly strong northwest winds will continue through at least the first half of Saturday behind the intense spring storm, but sensible weather will improve by later Saturday afternoon. Cooler temperatures will certainly be noticed with afternoon highs Saturday in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Given the expected magnitude of the cold air mass, we will have to watch for possible freeze headlines Saturday and/or Sunday morning. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1136 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions are expected for all sites through the TAF period. Some LLWS and sharp WSHFT have led up to the start of the period, but not forecast to last past 6Z. In the early hours, winds will settle out of the west/southwest at 10-15 KTS. By around 1Z winds will weaken drastically and become light and variable. Skies are forecast to be clear or mostly clear through the TAF period. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for KSZ061>063-074>077-084>087. && $$ DISCUSSION...Umscheid AVIATION...KBJ  721 FXUS65 KSLC 150438 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 1038 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Freezing conditions will occur across central and southern valley locations tonight into Wednesday morning. - A strong cold front will bring accumulating valley snow to northern Utah Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, with snow showers continuing into Friday morning. Snow may impact both the Thursday evening and Friday morning commutes along the Wasatch Front. - Very cold temperatures in the teens to upper 20s will occur across most valleys of Utah Thursday night into Friday morning and each subsequent overnight period through Sunday morning. Temperatures this cold can freeze sprinkler systems and cause widespread fruit orchard blossom death. Consider re-winterizing sprinkler systems to avoid property damage. && .DISCUSSION...Late this evening, showers have largely diminished across the area, with only isolated areas of low-level clouds still lingering as mid-level heights gradually rise. Clearing skies overnight will allow temperatures to drop down to below freezing again across many valleys in central/southern Utah, indicated by the ongoing Freeze Warnings. However, expect a brief respite after tonight as warmer, southwesterly flow develops through the day on Wednesday under shortwave ridging. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may still develop during the afternoon, mainly across northern Utah. The warmth will not last. A potent trough will quickly dive southward through the PacNW Wednesday night bringing a strong cold front through Utah and southwest Wyoming between mid Thursday morning and late Thursday night. This system, while dynamically strong, moves through fairly quickly and has only modest moisture, likely limiting snow amounts even though snow levels are expected to dip below valley floors. The main threat will be widespread freezing temperatures, which could impact crops, gardens, and unprotected sprinkler systems. This cold front is likely to enter northwestern Utah by late Thursday morning, moving through the Wasatch Front between 3-6PM and reaching southeastern Utah after 3AM or so. Along and just behind this front, expect a stark transition to northwesterly winds and a period of heavier snow, particularly across northern Utah. In the valleys, while rain will quickly transition to snow, warm antecedent surface temperatures could cause a delay in any accumulating snow...though we will still be watching snow chances in time for the Thursday evening commute. Another area worth watching will be the I-15 corridor between Nephi and Cedar City, as this area tends to do well in northwest flow. In the mountains, could see snowfall rates in excess of 1"/hr, particularly as snow ratios rise behind the front and especially in areas favored in northwest flow such as the Upper Cottonwoods. Forecast snow amounts are highest across northern Utah where the best moisture and dynamics are maximized. The northern mountains, for example, can expect around 6-12 inches of snow, though models have trended slightly lower in recent runs. Valley snow amounts have also trended a bit lower, with 1-2 inches likely across northern valleys (2-5 inches in the Wasatch Back). One area of uncertainty that could result in underforecast snow amounts is the potential for lake-effect snow early Friday morning downwind of the Great Salt Lake. The environment looks mostly favorable, with steep low-level lapse rates and a very cold air mass over a warm lake. The main question is how much moisture will linger in the low levels, and if it will be enough to generate lake-effect showers. Northwest to west-northwesterly flow looks to lighten up more by Friday morning, which would favor a more cellular mode, though the lake-land temperature difference will be pretty substantive by that point, which could favor a heavier band setting up. Either way, it'll be interesting to see how showers evolve...if moisture hangs on long enough. Widespread freezing temperatures are expected by Friday morning across all of Utah and southwest Wyoming except Lower Washington County, lower elevations of Zion NP, and areas near Lake Powell. Some areas could even see low temperatures below freezing through the weekend before temperatures rebound enough. Although quieter conditions are expected for the weekend, model guidance suggests more active weather returning. The main question is when this happens; some models suggests a closed low moves through the area by late Tuesday, and others suggest high pressure sticks around for a couple more days. && .AVIATION...KSLC...The SLC terminal will see VFR conditions continue tonight through Wednesday. Mostly clear skies can be expected overnight, with CIGS between 10-12kft AGL developing Wednesday afternoon. Winds will prevail out of the southeast overnight, increasing in speed by late Wednesday morning. Winds are then expected to shift to west-southwesterly (230-270 degrees) by midafternoon. .REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will continue tonight through Wednesday. Mostly clear skies can be expected overnight, with CIGS between 14-17kft MSL developing across northern through west-central Utah along with southwest Wyoming Wednesday afternoon. Meanwhile, southern Utah will see scattered high clouds for Wednesday. Otherwise, increasing southwesterly winds can be expected across most terminals Wednesday afternoon. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...Freeze Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning for UTZ102>106-114>116-118>122-129. Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT Wednesday for UTZ114>116-118>122- 130. WY...None. && $$ Cunningham/Cheng For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity  584 FXUS66 KMTR 150441 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 941 PM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 124 PM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Near normal temperatures continue through Thursday before temperatures warm heading into the weekend - Periods of gusty offshore winds, especially at higher elevations, Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning - Increasing confidence for widespread beneficial rain Sunday into the beginning of next week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 124 PM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 (This evening through Wednesday) Low level stratus is breaking up across the Bay Area with sunny skies to continue into the afternoon/evening. Another round of stratus is expected tonight along the coast and portions of the SF Bay Shoreline. Locally patchy fog remains possible tonight across the interior valleys, particularly across the North Bay Valleys and southern Salinas Valley. The upper level pattern remains fairly stable in the short term as a deep upper level trough moves into the PNW and more meridional flow (becoming slightly troughy on Wednesday) prevails over California. This will result in Tuesday looking fairly similar to Monday with coastal highs in the 50s to 60s, interior highs in the 60s, and portions of the interior Central Coast in the low 70s. Morning low temperatures will be in the 40s to low 50s with portions of the interior Central Coast and the elevated terrain dropping into the upper 30s. Diurnally breezy onshore winds continue through Wednesday with gusts to around 20 to 30 mph across favored gaps/passes and along the coast in the afternoon/evening. There is some potential for coastal drizzle on Wednesday but if any does occur no accumulation is expected. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 124 PM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 (Wednesday night through next Monday) There is a slight pattern change Wednesday night into Thursday as a high amplitude ridge moves into the West Coast. This will bring gusty offshore (northerly) winds across the region with gusts between 30-40 mph across the highest peaks. Winds will be strongest across the North Bay Interior Mountains and the interior East Bay. Fire concerns remain minimal thanks to the recent wetting rains across the region last weekend. Winds shift onshore again by Saturday and continue through the remainder of the Long Term Forecast. High temperatures will see a gradual warming trend Thursday into the weekend with highs building back into the mid to upper 70s across the interior and 60s along the coastline. By Sunday, the upper level ridge will have progressed eastward and another deep upper level trough will move into the West Coast. This low is coming from the Gulf of Alaska and will bring us our next round of rain. The highest rain totals look to be in the coastal mountain ranges with lower amounts expected across the rest of the Bay Area and Central Coast. Temperatures will cool Sunday and Monday with interior highs in the 60s to low 70s on Sunday dropping into the low to mid 60s on Monday. Coastal high temperatures will remain in the 50s to 60s. Gusty onshore winds are possible Sunday into Monday as this next system arrives but it does not meet Wind Advisory Criteria. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 940 PM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 High clouds associated with a cold front over far northern California will start to spill over the Bay Area and Central Coast tonight. Under these pre-frontal clouds, there will be another round of marine layer stratus impacts before the actual surface front moves through Wednesday night. Vicinity of SFO...There is a 20-30% chance for MVFR ceilings through 18Z Wednesday before the low clouds start mixing out. If ceilings form they will likely be transient and temporary through the first 12 hours of the TAF. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...With a better exposure to the ocean, the southern terminals have the best chance for MVFR ceilings early Wednesday morning. Despite this, there is very little chance for them to drop below 1,000 feet due to the deep, ragged marine layer. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 429 PM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 High pressure over the NE Pacific will continue to support a fresh NW breeze and moderate seas over the coastal waters through Wednesday afternoon. A mostly dry cold front will push through Wednesday night, followed by a push of strong to near gale force NW'rlys Thursday. These winds will build rough seas of 10-12 feet across the exposed coastal waters. Winds will ease back to a moderate NW breeze Fri-Sat, allowing seas to gradually subside. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Wednesday to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Wednesday to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kennedy LONG TERM....Kennedy AVIATION...Flynn MARINE...Flynn Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  534 FXUS64 KMAF 150442 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1142 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1139 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Low to medium shower and thunderstorm chances (10-40%) today across the Permian Basin and Lower Trans-Pecos. Damaging winds and large hail remain the primary hazards for the strongest storms. - Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected across southeast New Mexico, the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains, and portions of far west Texas through Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Wednesday night) Issued at 124 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Isolated thunderstorms along a dryline cutting north-south across the central Permian Basin will develop over the next few hours and progress eastward by this evening. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main hazards that the strongest storms will be capable of producing. Storms will decay after sunset tonight and much of the area should see mainly clear conditions. A High Wind Warning continues for the Guadalupe Mountains where strong winds are expected through the early evening. A Wind Advisory also continues for the Eddy County Plains where gusty winds are expected. Localized areas of blowing dust may sharply reduce visibilities. Winds decrease by tonight. The aforementioned dryline retreats to the west tonight and keeps areas east of the TX/NM border in the upper 50s to low 60s. To the west, drier air allows for more efficient cooling and some spots dip into the upper 40s. For Wednesday, another warm day is expected with areawide temperatures reaching into the 80s. Big Bend will be the hot spot with highs in the 90s, particularly across the low desert. Isolated storms will once again be possible over the eastern most reaches of the CWA, generally east of a line from Big Spring south into eastern Pecos County. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 124 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Heading into Wednesday night, any afternoon convection from earlier that day should decay or move off to the east of the area. Drier air filters in and much of the area ends up several degrees cooler compared to the night before with many in the 50s to upper 40s. Low (10-20%) rain chances exist for the eastern Permian Basin and down towards Terrell County both Thursday and Friday afternoons. Both days will see highs reaching into the 80s to low 90s. At the same time, low RHs and increasing winds to the west of Midland/Odessa, will lead to critical fire weather conditions. A cold front is pushed through the area late Friday and into Saturday bringing temperatures below normal for Saturday. Another disturbance looks to move through on Sunday bringing cloudy and rainy conditions to areas mainly south of I-20. Rain amounts look to be low, but stay tuned to changes in the forecast. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1139 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 TS has moved out of the area and will not affect any of the TAF sites for the next 24 hours. VFR conditions will remain. Light southerly winds increase and become gusty to 20-25KTS while veering from the west around 18Z. Hennig && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 124 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A Rangeland Fire Danger Statement continues this afternoon for areas across southeast New Mexico and adjacent West Texas counties. Similar areas will be monitored for future RFDs through Thursday as similar conditions (elevated winds, minRHs below 15%, and dry fuels) are expected each afternoon. The focus shifts to Friday as a larger area of critical RHs, increased winds, and dry fuels will be assessed for a future Fire Weather Watch. An upper level disturbance makes its way into the region early Friday increasing winds and bringing a front to the area later that day and into evening. Recent rains and better RHs have improved the fuel landscape in Texas, but areas in southeast New Mexico have seen less rain and will see critically dry conditions through the rest of this week. A cold front moves through the region late Friday and into Saturday that will shift from the west and southwest to northerly. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 62 86 56 88 / 30 10 0 10 Carlsbad 55 81 48 87 / 10 0 0 0 Dryden 64 87 63 86 / 30 20 20 10 Fort Stockton 61 86 57 88 / 30 10 10 10 Guadalupe Pass 52 71 51 77 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 53 81 47 85 / 10 0 0 0 Marfa 48 78 45 83 / 10 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 62 85 56 87 / 30 0 0 10 Odessa 62 84 56 86 / 30 0 0 10 Wink 58 84 50 88 / 20 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...93 LONG TERM....93 AVIATION...10  553 FXUS64 KTSA 150452 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1152 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1137 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Severe storms remain possible Wednesday afternoon and evening. - Warm, humid, and breezy southerly flow continues for much of the rest of this week. - Another chance of showers and thunderstorms, some potentially severe, is expected Friday into Saturday before cooler air arrives behind a cold front. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Wednesday) Issued at 1137 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A warm and humid airmass will remain over the area through Wednesday, with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected through the day as an upper trough approaches from the west. Severe storms will again be possible Wednesday afternoon and evening, with the extent of the severe weather threat largely determined by how much festering convection remains earlier in the day, which may limit the amount of instability. Afternoon high temperatures Wednesday will mostly be in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 1137 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Shower and storm chances will continue into early Thursday, with the severe weather threat waning with time later Wednesday night. Warm and humid conditions will continue Thursday, but additional storm development Thursday afternoon and evening appears unlikely due to subsidence behind the departing upper trough. Another upper trough will move across the plains late Friday into Saturday, with an accompanying cold front moving across the area Friday night and early Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms will likely accompany the front, with severe weather possible late Friday afternoon into the night, mainly in the form of damaging winds. Much cooler and drier air will filter into the area behind the front this weekend, with near normal temperatures returning for the first part of next week. Rain chances look to return around the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 630 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings will prevail through the forecast period. One or more rounds of showers and thunderstorms will likely impact most sites, with the initial round affecting most sites in the 02-08Z time range. Another round of showers and storms is expected sometime later Wednesday afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 66 78 62 85 / 70 70 60 10 FSM 67 80 65 85 / 60 70 80 30 MLC 66 78 64 85 / 70 80 60 0 BVO 62 79 59 84 / 50 70 60 0 FYV 63 77 60 81 / 80 70 80 30 BYV 65 77 61 80 / 70 70 80 30 MKO 64 78 61 84 / 80 80 60 10 MIO 63 76 60 81 / 70 80 80 10 F10 64 78 61 85 / 70 80 50 0 HHW 66 78 63 83 / 40 70 70 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...05  176 FXUS66 KMFR 150452 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 952 PM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .DISCUSSION...The cold front will bring a frost and freeze risk to the area Wednesday night and Thursday night. Thursday night's temperatures are forecast to be the coldest of the two, and portions of the Klamath River Valley and Josephine County near the Illinois Valley have a 55-70% chance to see 32 degrees of lower that night. With that, a Freeze Watch has been issued. More of the Rogue Valley has a near 100% probability of seeing at least 36 degrees Thursday night, so we will analyze for the need of advisories in the coming days. -Hermansen && .MARINE...Updated 700 PM PDT Tuesday, April 14, 2026...A front will bring rain, strong winds, and steep seas through Wednesday morning. Localized areas of very steep and hazardous seas are briefly possible north of Coos Bay tonight. Winds trend lower but steep seas persist Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. Conditions improve late Thursday, but a weak thermal trough may bring gusty northerly winds to the waters south of Cape Blanco late Thursday into Friday. Another active system may bring additional rainfall and steep seas this weekend. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 606 PM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026/ UPDATE...Aviation Discussion updated. DISCUSSION...A shortwave ridge passing over northern California and southern Oregon will produce calm, mostly clear weather for the rest of today. Daytime highs will warm slightly from Monday's temperatures, but clouds will steadily increase across the area as the next system approaches. As this cold front approaches, some coastal showers will begin to move into the area this evening, which we can already see in Radar imagery offshore this afternoon. More widespread rainfall is expected on Wednesday. Coastal cities look to see 1 to 1.5 inches of rainfall, while coastal ranges could see around 2 inches. Rainfall in the Umpqua Valley is forecast to be between 0.75 and 1 inch, with other valleys and basins seeing lower amounts through Wednesday. With snow levels expected to hover at 4500-5500 feet from the front's arrival through Wednesday morning, winter impacts look to be limited to the Cascades. A Winter Weather Advisory is in place for areas near and north of Crater Lake and at elevations above 5000 feet from Wednesday morning through Thursday morning, given that snowfall in this area is expected to make travel hazardous. Snowfall amounts of 12 to 16 inches are forecast over the Cascades on Wednesday. Current SPC guidance shows around a 90 percent chance for snowfall rates of 1 inch per hour Wednesday morning into early in the afternoon, and 40 to 50 percent chance for a brief period of 2 inches per hour late in the morning. Also, gusty winds are expected over elevated terrain and the usual exposed areas on Wednesday, especially east of the Cascades. With mid-level model winds approaching 55 kts, gusts along Winter Rim/Summer Lake and the Warner Mountains could reach up to 55 mph in that late Wednesday morning-early afternoon timeframe. Gusts of 30-40 mph are expected to be more widespread across east side areas. Activity across the area eases on Wednesday evening, but a cold air mass looks to bring impactful overnight low temperatures for west side valleys. The Rogue, Applegate, Illinois, and western Klamath County valleys are all forecast to see lows from the mid 20s to low 30s on these nights. These temperatures would bring chances of frost or freezing conditions. East of the Cascades, overnight lows look to be in the mid teens to low 20s. Chilly nights aside, Thursday looks to be a quieter day. While snow levels drop to 1500-2000 feet in the morning, declining activity will minimize the chance of impactful winter conditions at lower elevations. Another shortwave ridge looks to bring warmer temperatures and dry conditions on Friday and Saturday. Long-term deterministic imagery is showing more agreement of a low pressure system approaching the area from the northwest late this weekend into early next week, bringing periods of southwest or southerly flow. While details are still coarse, the tight pressure gradients aloft in imagery tend to indicate stronger winds, and southerly flow patterns tend to deliver moderate to heavy precipitation to the Mount Shasta area and coastal terrain. Details remain coarse for this timeframe, so stay tuned for additional details on continuing active weather. AVIATION (00Z TAFs)... A front will pass through the region tonight and Wednesday. This will result in widespread precipitation through Wednesday afternoon. As a result, MVFR conditions will likely become common across the area. Areas of IFR ceilings and visibilities are expected along the coast late tonight and early Wednesday morning. Probabilities were not high enough to include IFR (ceilings/visibilities) for inland sites at this time, but there is an 8%-18% chance for IFR conditions inland. Widespread mountain obscurations are expected tonight through Wednesday. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for ORZ024. Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Wednesday for ORZ030-031. Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ027. CA...Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for CAZ080. Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ085. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Thursday for PZZ350-356-370-376. && $$  394 FXUS61 KBGM 150454 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 1254 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes to the forecast. Adjusted precipitation and thunder changes for tomorrow, as guidance continues to show a later onset time of strong to severe storms. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Strong to severe storms are expected tomorrow, starting in the late afternoon to evening. The main threat will be strong to damaging winds. 2) The warm pattern through the week will break down late in the weekend, with much colder air arriving in the late weekend, and extending into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Today will be similar to yesterday, as the area maintains under the ridge flow pattern with shortwaves and MCS' continuing to ride along the ridge. We're currently monitoring the MCS in Michigan, which will be the driver of some early morning convection around sunrise. Ahead of the approaching system, there's a small pocket of CAPE in Western NY that bleeds a little into our western counties for this forecast area. This will likely lead to a line of storms approaching and pushing into the area from the west, but will likely fizzle slowly out as it moves across mainly Central NY and the Twin Tiers. Going into the afternoon, models continue to show that there will be more CAPE than yesterday (>1000J/kg of surface CAPE) and better shear (>40 knots of 0-6 km shear). If the timing of the mid level wave that triggers the storms is like the current model guidance is showing (in the late afternoon to evening), strong to severe storms are likely, and isolated supercells are possible. SPC maintains a Marginal risk across most of Central NY and NE PA for this potential, with a Slight Risk nearby in Central PA. The main potential threats with Wednesday's storms will be strong to isolated damaging winds, some hail, and training storms bringing heavy downpours that could cause isolated flooding. WPC continues a Marginal Risk for excessive rain, and isolated flash flooding across most of the forecast area for the late afternoon through the overnight hours. We will still be in this warm SW flow pattern going into Thursday, with frequent shortwaves bringing rainfall and afternoon storms. Better forcing arrives late in the day along an incoming cold front. There is uncertainty in the amount of CAPE that ultimately materializes, but with temperatures back in the mid-70s to low 80s, and dew points in the low 60s, instability could again reach moderate levels (1000 J/kg +). This time period will need to be watched closely as 0-6km shear remains elevated between 40-50 kts once again over the region. After the cold front pushes through Thursday night into Friday morning, there will be some lingering showers and a chance for a few storms through the day on Friday. However, overall instability and shear are forecast to be much lower on Friday. Temperatures will also come down some, with highs in the mid-60s to mid-70s expected. KEY MESSAGE 2... While this warm, early summer-like pattern persist through the first half of the weekend, the late weekend into early next week has continued to trend cooler, thanks to a trough digging into our area. With the Great Lakes likely warming up some over the rest of this week, it is possible they would be warm enough to generate lake effect snow shower activity with this pattern, as temperature differentials exceed 15C from the lake surface up to the 850mb level. With the anomalously cold air mass in place it appears daytime highs may stay in the 30s to low 40s on Monday. Very cold overnight lows in the 20s are then expected Monday night into Tuesday morning. It then appears a gradual moderating trend will take hold Tuesday into the middle of next week. As of now, the pattern with the cold is looking dry (outside of lake effect). && .AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A line of shower and storms are currently moving through NEPA and the Catskills and should be out of the area in the next couple of hours. Looks like we should get some IFR restrictions to return to RME tonight. SYR and ITH have some signals for IFR, but confidence is not high enough to include IFR at this time and went with MVFR. Another round of showers and isolated storms looks to push through the area in the morning. Chances for storms look to be the best for ELM/ITH/BGM with SYR showing some chances but morning fog and clouds may hinder storms making it that far north. There will be a lull in activity from late morning to mid afternoon before another round of showers and storms is expected to develop. Best chances for storms will be at ELM/ITH/BGM where conditions look more favorable. IFR visby will be possible with these storms but with location and timing still very uncertain, did not include them in the TAFs. SYR and RME look to quickly get on the cool side of the boundary these storms will fire on and have rain and MVFR ceilings. AVP may see storms as well, but those would be after this TAF period. Outlook: Wednesday evening through Friday...Restrictions possible from showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Saturday...Additional restrictions look to arrive along with showers and storms late in the day Saturday. Sunday... Restrictions possible from showers. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KL AVIATION...JTC  393 FXUS65 KGJT 150454 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1054 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Sub-freezing temperatures are expected for most valleys Wednesday morning where a Freeze Warning is in place. A Freeze Watch is in effect for a few valleys Wednesday night into Thursday morning as well. - After a brief mid-week warm up, colder and unsettled weather returns to the region Thursday night into Saturday morning with widespread hard freeze possible as well as mountain and high valley snow. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1050 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Satellite imagery and radar show the low that transited the region this afternoon is now moving over the Front Range and out onto the Plains. Convective activity has for the most part ended under subsidence behind the low with only light orographic showers continuing primarily along the western and northwestern faces of rising terrain. Look for these showers to diminish overnight with only a few lingering into the morning hours along the higher peaks of the central Colorado Mountains. As the system moves out, sub- freezing temperatures are likely overnight through Wednesday morning for most lower valleys with exception of the Grand Valley and valleys of east-central and southeast Utah. Thus a Freeze Warning for these areas is in place through 9 AM in the morning. The growing season is well underway for all lower valleys so protect plants and sensitive vegetation if you are impacted. Can't really say a ridge builds in behind the retreating low because the next low pressure system is hot on its heels descending along the British Columbia Coast, and will move in through the Pacific Northwest by Wednesday afternoon to keep any ridge knocked down. At most the flow aloft becomes more zonal advecting warm air into the region to restore temperatures across eastern Utah and Western Colorado to near to a little above normal Wednesday, warming to five degrees or more above normal Thursday. In spite of these temperatures warming to normal, they remain cooler than we've seen the last week or so and some areas may continue below the freezing mark with potential for below freezing temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday morning for the southwest Colorado valleys and the Central Colorado River Basin (valleys east of New Castle and south of Glenwood Springs to Carbondale), hence we have a Freeze Watch in place for these areas Wednesday night. Stay tuned for an update on this in the morning as the forecast temperatures become more certain. The next system drops in from the northwest Thursday with strong jet support and a tight pressure gradient through the middle atmosphere producing winds gusting 30 to 40 mph in the valleys and 45 to 60 mph in the mountains. These stronger winds and jet are indicative of the strength of the cold front associated with this system having temperatures falling 20 degrees or more behind the front. Expect showers and isolated thunderstorms moving into the Uinta Mountains Thursday afternoon ahead of the cold front that drops in Thursday evening. These showers will push southeast to I-70 through the evening and to the San Juan Mountains overnight into Friday morning with the cold front running three to six hours behind the start of the showers. Look for wide spread showers continuing behind the frontal boundary with snow levels falling 5000 feet. Though the heavy cloud cover Friday morning will keep temperatures in the low to mid 30's, don't be surprised to see snow flakes falling in the Grand Valley through the morning. The widespread showers will diminish west to east through Friday as the upper-level trough moves overhead. Thunderstorms will increase through the afternoon mostly over the mountains as the right entrance region of the jet move overhead. The moisture associated with this system continues to decline with each run of the models which is typical with these northwest systems and hence winter headline are not expected, but with the strong dynamics with this system, brief snow squalls may be possible with the cold front Thursday night with reduced visibility and rapidly deteriorating road conditions. Stay tuned for updates on this possibility. Behind this cold front, a hard freeze is forecast for Friday night into Saturday morning as this system moves off to the east. Many of the valleys across the region will see lows in the teens to low 20's with the Grand Valley and other lower valleys seeing temperatures in the mid to upper 20's. Expect headlines for this in the next day or so, but now is the time to start planning for this cold snap. Looking beyond Saturday, a high pressure ridge builds back in this weekend into early next week, resulting in a return back up towards above normal warmth as the rollercoaster spring weather continues. However, another storm system potentially looms for mid to late next week, so we still look to remain in this progressive pattern. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 531 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Precipitation begins to taper off from west to east this evening. KASE, KEGE, and KTEX are expected to hold on to the precipitation a little longer than all other TAF sites. Cloud cover begins to decrease overnight, with some passing high clouds expected for most of Wednesday. Winds will be generally light once this storm system moves through, but gusts begin to pick up Wednesday afternoon, generally in the 15-20 kt range. Although, some TAF sites will see gusts exceeding 20 kts. With that being said, VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT Wednesday for COZ001-002-007-008- 011-020>023. Freeze Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday morning for COZ008-021>023. UT...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT Wednesday for UTZ024. && $$ DISCUSSION...DB/MDA AVIATION...TGJT  557 FXUS63 KIWX 150457 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 1257 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue through today, though the potential for severe weather remains uncertain with intensity dependent on how previous activity evolves. - Additional chances for showers and thunderstorms exist Thursday through Saturday, with potential for severe weather dependent on the previous thunderstorm activity. - A Flood Watch remains in effect through this evening as swaths of locally heavy rain is expected on already saturated grounds and high river and lake levels. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1257 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 While a primary trough will lift out of the Rockies into the central plains over the coming 12-18 hours, multiple embedded waves ahead of this trough through the active flow aloft will continue to produce periods of shower and thunderstorm activity across the region today. Forecast soundings depict fairly saturated atmospheric profiles with precipitable water values exceeding 1.2-1.4 inches, which will aid in producing heavy rainfall rates with any thunderstorm that develops. A Flood Watch remains in effect through this evening for the northern half of the forecast area given the potential for heavy rain, though a flooding threat cannot be ruled out further south. The severe thunderstorm threat remains complicated today with instability looking more difficult to come by as early morning convective debris and intermittent shower activity will limit CAPE values. That said, strong mid- level flow with 40-50 knots of 0-6km shear will be more than sufficient for organized convection if adequate surface heating and subsequent destabilization occurs. For now the severe threat today looks conditional but worth watching. A sharper trough moves through the area on Thursday bringing additional chances for showers and thunderstorms. Strong shear and adequate instability should bring another day of at least a marginal severe threat. Attention will then turn to the likely arrival of a much deeper trough by this weekend, which has triggered an early highlight by SPC for severe weather potential on Saturday. A sharp cool-down and gusty winds behind the associated cold front is likely on Sunday, with a moderation in temperatures through the first half of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1257 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A line of strong SHRA/TSRA with wind gusts 40-50 kts/CIGS 015-025k ft AGL/VSBY 1-3SM extending from SRN Lake Michigan across SRN MI early this morning will drift south into NRN IN through 15/12Z impacting, the terminals at KSBN (between 15/04-07Z) and KFWA (between 15/06-09Z). Although there will be a lull in thunderstorms impacting northern IN between 15/12-16Z, MVFR conditions will return with another round of SHRA/TSRA expanding in coverage and intensity across the area from west-to-east Wednesday afternoon. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for INZ005>009-012-014- 103-104-116-203-204-216. OH...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for OHZ001-002-004-005. MI...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for MIZ078>081-177-277. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Edwards AVIATION...Rasmussen  833 FXUS65 KCYS 150458 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 1058 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered showers and the occasional thunderstorm are possible this afternoon. Main concern with any storms that form will be gusty winds. Severe weather not expected. - A High Wind Watch has been issued for the typical wind prone locations of southeast Wyoming from 6 AM through 3 PM Wednesday. - A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for most locations east of the Laramie Range from noon to 8 PM on Thursday. - A potent weather disturbance will produce windy, colder, and wetter weather for Thursday night and Friday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 1255 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Another round of showers and storms is possible this afternoon as current GOES-18 Satellite Imagery shows a low spinning over the Colorado/Utah border, near Grand Junction. Low-level and mid-level clouds are spewing out ahead of the low and starting to cover much of southeast Wyoming in clouds. Current radar suggests a few isolated to scattered showers mainly west of the Laramie Range at this time. Showers will become more widespread throughout the afternoon and evening hours as the low continues to traverse slowly to the east. A decent cumulus field has started to develop across the western Nebraska Panhandle where mid- and upper-level clouds have briefly cleared earlier this morning. Upper-level water vapor imagery shows the upper-level trough positioned across much of the Intermountain West with a distinct, positive tilt to the trough itself. As this upper-level trough continues its eastward progression today, the CWA will main under the right entrance region of the upper-level jet, suggesting continued synoptic lift across the region and increasing precipitation chances. Warm air advection is weakly in place overhead at the 700mb level, but not overly impressive for stronger storms this afternoon. HIRES model guidance suggest isolated pockets of MUCAPE up to about 500 J/kg for areas east of the Laramie Range, with MLCAPE lower and more capped. Given some instability in the area, an isolated thunderstorm or two cannot be completely ruled out, especially as temperatures across the Panhandle increase into the mid-60s. However, forecast RAP soundings suggest a stout inverted-V signature, suggesting a higher potential for gusty winds with and showers and storms that form this afternoon. Therefore, severe weather is not expected, but isolated thunderstorms with some lightning are expected, especially across the western Nebraska Panhandle where warmer temperatures are located. Precipitation chances slowly come to an end overnight, with Sidney potentially seeing showers through the early morning hours before the trough departs the region and subsidence returns in its wake. Wednesday will be a transition day across the region as precipitation chances end and a brief ridge develops ahead of the next incoming system for Thursday into the long term forecast. The 700mb flow suggests that while a transition period is expected, it will potentially be filled with strong to near-high wind criteria winds in the typical wind prone areas of southeast Wyoming and gusty conditions elsewhere. At 700mb, as the initial system starts to deepen, height gradients increase across western portions of the CWA through the early to late morning hours. Then, increasing gradients are expected in the mid- to late-afternoon hours as the next 700mb trough begins to deepen across central Montana. As this system deepens, a 50 to 55kt 700mb jet kicks up across the Laramie Range with GFS Omega values suggesting modest to strong subsidence across the Laramie Range and near the Arlington/Elk Mountain area. As a result, a lower-confidence High Wind Watch has been issued for the typical wind prone areas of southeast Wyoming from 6 AM to 3 PM Wednesday, with gusts up to 60mph possible. While some parameters, namely the Craig to Casper gradients, are not super onboard with high winds, enough evidence exists to suggest the need the for a Watch. Luckily, with strong subsident flow, highs in the mid-50s to low-70s are expected Thursday with clearing skies behind the departing trough. Precipitation is not expected for most areas. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 1255 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Our ridge starts to become flattened and pushed off to the east Thursday. A cold low pressure system will start to push into the Intermountain west as it dives southeast from the Saskatchewan/Albertan Providences bringing a colder airmass with it. A cold front will start push through the Southeast Wyoming area late afternoon to early evening. Models show it being a pretty stout front with temps in the 50's in front and 30's behind it. However, due to the timing of the front a fire weather watch was issued for Goshen, Platte, Laramie, and the Nebraska Panhandle counties as RH values look likely to drop between 10 and 15 percent for the afternoon coupled with the breezy winds between 20 to 25 mph. Converse and Niobrara weren't included because there is uncertainty with how low the RH will drop before the cold front pushes through raising the humidity above possible threshold values. There will be some showers associated with this front as well. Looking at the model soundings the mid-levels will saturate first and produce virga at first. But the virga should reach the ground into the overnight period and likely come down as snow as we saturate the lower levels and below freezing. 700mb temperatures look to drop to about -13C making it for a colder Wyoming Friday with temps in the 30's while the Panhandle looks to be in the low 40's. The snow showers will continue into Friday as the pressure system start to makes its way into the Northern Plains. Friday night will be the peak of the cold airmass as overnight temperatures drop into the teens and twenties. Another ridge will also start to push into the Intermountain west late Friday afternoon keeping us in Northwesterly flow filtering in that colder air from the North and tightening our pressure gradient creating a cold breezy wind as well. Total accumulations from the Thursday/Friday system looks to be around 3-4 inches in areas west of the I-25 corridor, 2-3 inches along the I-25 corridor, and about 1-2 inches east of the corridor. For the Nebraska Panhandle it looks to be roughly 0.5 to 1 inch of snow with some 1-2 inch areas closer to the WY/NE border. By Saturday morning the system should be far enough east to stop snowing while the ridge moves further east as well. The airmass over the intermountain west will gradually warm up but the Saturday temps will still be in the 40's and 50's. Sunday, warm temps in the 60/70's east of I-25 return with mostly clear skies in the afternoon. This warmer ridge is currently expected to last until Tuesday morning before another shortwave could possibly hit the Intermountain West again. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1058 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Upper level disturbance will push east into the northeast Colorado plains tonight with clearing skies and diminishing precipitation. Some patchy fog is possible tonight in places that received rain/snow earlier today. HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: VFR conditions will prevail through Wednesday with increasing westerly winds late tonight and early Wednesday morning. Can't rule out some fog in a few places that received rainfall yesterday evening, but chances are below 5%, so removed VCFG for now with increasing westerly winds. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for WYZ430>433. High Wind Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon for WYZ106-110-116-117. NE...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for NEZ434>437. && $$ SHORT TERM...AM LONG TERM...MM AVIATION...TJT  946 FXUS64 KOHX 150458 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1158 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1156 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - There is an enhanced fire danger on Wednesday due to dry fuels, low RH values and gusty winds. - Expect unseasonal warmth to last through Saturday. - There are medium to high rain/storm chances Thursday and Thursday evening, and again this weekend. Severe weather threat is low. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday Night) Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Upper ridging influences will continue on Wednesday with dry, warm, and breezy conditions. This will continue the enhanced fire risk with drier than average fuels for this time of year. RH values will drop below 30% during the afternoon with 10-15 mph winds. A shortwave trough will approach the area Wednesday night with a low chance of a shower prior to 12z. The higher rain chances will be after sunrise on Thursday with medium to high chances through the day. There is a low chance that a couple additional storms develop over west Tennessee in the afternoon and move into our western counties. Some cooler mid level temperatures will be in place during the afternoon providing some steeper lapse rates along with 30-35 kts of effective bulk shear. IF storms manage to develop in the afternoon and make it into our western part of the CWA, there is a low chance they could produce gusty winds and large hail. This is a low conditional threat for our western counties but CAMS are favoring any afternoon storm development to stay in west Tennessee. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Behind the shortwave, upper ridging slides back in with highs in the mid to upper 80s on Friday. Some locations may even touch 90 degrees. A cold front will approach from the west on Saturday with showers and a couple storms ahead of it. Rain chances will increase Saturday afternoon and continue Saturday night. Behind the front, temperatures will be cooler on Sunday with highs in the 60s and lows in the upper 30s to low 40s Sunday night. Temperatures will begin to rebound on Monday as high pressure slides east of the area and weak southerly flow returns. While we do have a couple of rain chances over the next seven days, amounts will not do much to put a dent in the drought. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1156 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR condition for this TAF cycle. Much like the last couple of days, look for southwest wind gusts of 20-25 kts to pick up around 15Z/Wed and last through 00Z/Thu. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 64 86 65 82 / 0 0 0 70 Clarksville 67 86 66 81 / 0 0 20 80 Crossville 57 82 60 80 / 0 0 0 50 Columbia 62 85 63 83 / 0 0 0 60 Cookeville 60 82 62 80 / 0 0 0 70 Jamestown 59 83 60 80 / 0 0 0 60 Lawrenceburg 61 83 62 82 / 0 0 0 60 Murfreesboro 62 86 63 84 / 0 0 0 70 Waverly 66 86 67 81 / 0 0 10 80 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Reagan LONG TERM....Reagan AVIATION.....Unger  034 FXUS63 KILX 150459 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1159 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Periods of thunderstorms will continue through early Saturday. A 15-30% risk for severe weather exists this afternoon, tomorrow night, and late Friday into Saturday. The primary risks this afternoon will be large hail and damaging winds. - With any training storms, heavy rainfall may result in localized flooding. There is a level 2 of 5 (slight) risk for excessive rainfall this evening northeast of a roughly Galesburg to Mattoon line. - After a warm work week, conditions will turn sharply cooler on Saturday. There will be a low (20-30%) chance for frost Saturday night north of I-70, and a higher chance area-wide Sunday night. && .UPDATE... Issued at 728 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 We continue to closely monitor storm potential across central Illinois this evening, however, the threat remains best across northern Illinois in the near term. Locally, very unstable conditions (MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg) are in place as sampled by both 18Z and 00Z soundings, albeit strongly capped at 18Z around 800mb. While the cap has largely eroded, the early afternoon shortwave trough has left subsidence in its wake across central Illinois this evening, which when coupled with loss of peak daytime heating, has resulted in dramatic thinning of the cumulus field across the central part of the state. Given the lack of forcing, lowered PoPs considerably to around 20% across central Illinois through the remainder of the evening. If on the off chance a storm is able to develop (perhaps associated with outflow from northern storms or strengthening low level jet), shear and instability remain favorable for any storms to be severe. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 133 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ***** BOOM OR BUST CONVECTIVE SCENARIO THIS AFTERNOON ***** At 1pm, a warm airmass was in place across central and southeast Illinois with temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s. Gulf moisture continues to surge into the region on 15-20 (gusting to 30) mph southwest breezes, with dewpoints currently in the mid 60s. Consequently, the airmass is becoming increasingly unstable with RAP mesoanalysis indicating 1500-3000 J/kg SBCAPE. A capping inversion should prevent convective initiation unless and until a trigger lifts parcels to the LFC, which at this point remains unclear. Recent iterations of the HRRR and several members of the 12z REFS suggest that cap will break, resulting in explosive convective development and scattered severe weather across the CWA by mid afternoon. However, about 60-70% of CAMs keep the cap in place throughout the evening - maintaining warm and breezy conditions. The 18z raob confirms this notion, depicting a 3 degC capping inversion around 800mb which would take a lot of forcing to overcome. Given the parameter space for severe weather is forecast to become volatile over the next few hours, with SBCAPEs climbing to 2500-4000 J/kg, 700-500 lapse rates reaching 8-8.5C/km, and 45-55 kt effective bulk wind shear, any storms that form would pose a risk for severe weather, especially large hail where storm relative inflow (from the SSW/SW) is unimpeded in right- moving supercells (favored by clockwise curved hodographs). In addition, a few of the more bullish models show localized pockets of 3+ inches of rain falling in a few hours with training storms, which could result in some hydrological issues; accordingly, WPC has expanded the level 2 of 5 (slight) risk for excessive rainfall southward into much of our CWA. We'll be keeping a close eye on mesoscale trends this afternoon to assess the potential and issue any necessary warnings. ***** MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW ***** We'll likely (50-70% chance) have a few more storms overnight tonight as a weakening MCS lifts up into our area from northeast Missouri. We may end up needing some short-fused wind headline if the HRRR and RRFS are correct in their depiction of a meso-high feature impacting our west/southwest counties between 11pm and 4am, though confidence in this scenario is also low. The upper level low will slowly approach our area tomorrow, with continued warm advection ahead of it bringing waves of thunderstorms through the Prairie State. It appears instability will be a bit weaker tomorrow due to widespread clouds and scattered storms limiting surface heating, though the risk for severe weather will increase during the late evening or early overnight period (8pm-2am) west of I-55 where a few CAMs bring a weakening line of storms capable of locally severe winds. ***** DRY THURSDAY(?), STORMS RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT ***** A weak cold front will settle across the district on Thursday, bringing a moment's repose from the active pattern. However, the front will lift back north Thursday night into Friday, when instability will build ahead of a more potent kinematic system. As with today, we'll be in the warm sector on Friday, so a volatile thermodynamic environment would support severe weather if a trigger ruptures the capping inversion. Otherwise, more numerous showers and storms will pass through the area along the cold front sometime late Friday night or Saturday morning. While this is not a diurnally favorable period for severe weather, the strong forcing with the cold front and 45-55 kt deep layer shear could result in at least scattered severe winds if a mature line of storms enters our area from the west Friday night...or develops along the cold front in eastern Illinois on Saturday. ***** COOLER WEATHER RETURNS SATURDAY ***** A cold front will cross the area sometime on Saturday, with stiff west winds ushering in a more seasonably cool airmass for the second half of the weekend. NBM indicates a 30-50% chance low temperatures by Saturday night fall to 36 deg or cooler north of I-70, though winds should remain elevated to prevent frost formation. The better opportunity will be Sunday night, when NBM chances are 30-60% area- wide for sub 37 degF lows and winds should be calm with surface high pressure parked across the CWA. Protective action may be needed to prevent frost from damaging tender vegetation. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1159 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A few rounds of TSRA are likely across the central IL terminals over the next 24 hours, starting around or just prior to daybreak. Timing when these may impact a particular terminal is very low confidence at this point, resulting in an extended period of PROB30 for TSRA into Thursday evening. Away from storms, VFR conditions are expected. Southwest winds will continue through the period, gusting to 25 kt at times. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...Bumgardner UPDATE...Deubelbeiss DISCUSSION...Bumgardner AVIATION...25