969 FXUS64 KLZK 150500 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1200 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 138 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 -Active pattern expected across the region...but only limited potential for thunderstorms/rainfall in Arkansas -First decent thunderstorm/rainfall potential for Arkansas late Wednesday night into Thursday morning -Next wave of thunderstorm/rainfall potential late Friday into Saturday as a cold front moves through the region -Cooler/drier weather expected late this weekend into early next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 138 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 An active weather pattern remains the main story through the next several days across the region...but much of AR remains on the ERN/SERN extent of most activity. Initially...only some small chances for isolated/widely scattered convection are forecast today/tonight...mainly for WRN/NWRN sections...with much better chances for more organized activity remaining west. Most areas of the LZK CWA should remain dry into Wed...with highs in the 70s and 80s. By late Wed into early Thu...upper level energy in the SW flow aloft will shift east slightly by Thu morning...with the potential for a bit more organized convection increasing further E/SE. Have increasing POPs for this as a result...with best POPs late Wed night into early Thu afternoon. Given the timing of this activity...the threat for strong/SVR convection looks relatively limited this time. Potential for precip decreases again for most locations late Thu into much of Fri as upper ridging moves over AR. By Sat/Sat night...an upper shortwave will drop SE across the Plains into the Great Lakes region...with a SFC cold front dropping SE across the Plains through AR. Expect increasing potential for convection with this SFC front as it passes SE through AR Sat. The potential for seeing any organized SVR Wx with this front looks fairly uncertain at this time. This will be due to either timing of the FROPA...and/or uncertainty in this timing and upper level features/SFC details. Cooler and more stable air will then settle across the region by late in the weekend into early next week behind this cold front. Temps will drop from the 70s and 80s...potentially some low 90s on Fri for highs...to the 60s and 70s behind the front. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 The northern sites of KHRO and KBPK can expect VCTS over the first few hours of the forecast period from TSRA moving out of Oklahoma into northern Arkansas. CIGS will lower to MVFR flight category at all terminals for a few hours before lifting back to VFR flight category on Wednesday morning. Surface wind gusts will be present at all terminals in excess of 20 to 25 knots later Wednesday morning until Wednesday evening when surface winds will lose their gusting condition. VCTS will return to the sites of KHRO and KBPK late in the forecast period from Wednesday evening into Wednesday night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 83 65 83 65 / 20 80 70 10 Camden AR 84 64 85 64 / 0 40 40 10 Harrison AR 78 61 81 64 / 70 90 60 0 Hot Springs AR 81 63 83 63 / 20 70 40 0 Little Rock AR 83 65 83 65 / 10 70 60 0 Monticello AR 85 67 86 66 / 0 20 40 0 Mount Ida AR 80 62 81 63 / 30 80 40 10 Mountain Home AR 79 61 82 62 / 60 80 60 0 Newport AR 85 66 83 65 / 10 70 80 0 Pine Bluff AR 85 65 85 65 / 0 50 50 10 Russellville AR 81 64 83 63 / 40 80 60 0 Searcy AR 83 63 83 62 / 10 70 70 0 Stuttgart AR 85 67 83 66 / 0 50 70 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....99 AVIATION...74  256 FXUS62 KMFL 150500 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 100 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1257 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Reduced visibilities and air quality will be possible across portions of the Naples metro due to smoke from the Newman Fire. - Dangerous rip currents will continue at all east coast beaches of South Florida through at least Wednesday evening. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 1257 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Deep-layer ridging remains in tact at least through Thursday as it continues to hold over the Southeast U.S. while also further amplifying. 500mb heights will be in the 97-99th percentile for these dates, showing just how strong this ridge is. The drier air mass also holds steady, maintaining a dry and tranquil weather pattern across the region. Easterly winds around the high pressure will be a little weaker today and tomorrow as the pressure gradient begins to relax, but still will be relatively breezy with gusts to around 20-30 mph. Daytime high temperatures will continue to reach the low 80s for the east coast metro and upper 80s to near 90 for the Gulf coast region today as the easterly regime favors warmer temps for the Gulf region during the day and cooler at night. Highs then climb to near 90 for Gulf coast metro areas on Thursday with low to mid 80s highs for the east coast metro. We continue to monitor the Newman Wildfire in Collier County as well. Until its fully controlled, breezy easterly winds will allow for smoke to continue to disperse fairly quickly to the point where it's less controllable. The easterly winds will push smoke towards the Gulf shore and other areas in the vicinity. As a result of this, local air quality issues are likely and can impact sensitive groups as firefighters continue to work on mitigating the fire. Additionally, smoke can contribute to lower visibilities on roadways and make driving conditions less safe in certain areas. Caution is advised when driving on the roadways until the fire is fully controlled, and vulnerable populations should consider limiting time outdoors. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1257 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Long term ensembles show a shortwave trough advecting across the central U.S. on Friday with the shortwave attempting to break down the deep-layer ridge over the Southeast U.S. However, with the ridge being highly amplified, it will not break down entirely and rather just be weakened or 'flattened out' in a sense. As the shortwave trough then advects offshore, upper level ridging re- amplifies in conjunction with a deep-layer trough forming over the Great Lakes region this weekend. This trough is expected to be strong enough to the point where it forces some downstream vorticity and a frontal boundary southwards towards northern Florida and simultaneously weakens the ridging pattern. Moisture would also be expected to increase as the front moves southwards. However, ensembles still keep 500mb heights around the 90-95th percentile through Sunday morning, hinting that the high pressure has a good chance to hold onto its control of the local weather through the first half of the weekend despite incoming low pressure trying to advect into the area. If this trend holds firm, mostly dry weather would be expected to continue minus some isolated shower activity occurring as a result of increased daytime high temperatures under the ridge pattern and a slight increase in moisture availability as some modest moisture advection occurs from a low in the Caribbean. As the frontal boundary washes out after it enters northern Florida and the ridge finally loses its strength, PWATs may rise back to climatological norms over the weekend and into next week (1.2-1.4") which can support some weak shower activity even under a high pressure pattern, particularly as a result of sea breeze circulations. Overall, most ensemble members and clusters at this time still favor drier solutions for this weekend and into Monday next week, and even these few wetter solutions for the Sat-Mon time frame do not favor a highly active period with total QPF for each 24-hour period being below 0.5". As a result, the latest forecast keeps conditions predominantly dry with only slight chances for some shower activity returning at the beginning of next week on Monday and Tuesday. Overall, ensembles do highlight a much more active pattern being possible as we approach the middle of next week, but uncertainty remains high on that given its at the end of the forecast period. High temperatures will continue to rise each day through this weekend underneath this large ridging pattern as we see highs rise to the mid to upper 80s along the east coast metro, upper 80s to low 90s for the Gulf coast, and low to mid 90s over the interior. Overnight lows are expected to range each night from the low 60s for the Gulf coast, interior, and lake regions to the upper 60s and low 70s for the east coast metro. As the frontal boundary then works southwards and washes out through the area early next week, a cool down back to more normal temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s is possible. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1257 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR prevails at all terminals during the next 24 hours. Easterly winds around 8-10 kts the rest of the night will increase again after 14-15Z to 10-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts through the afternoon. A westerly breeze appears likely at APF after 18-19Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 1257 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A moderate breeze will be in place across the Atlantic waters through the end of this week with a gentle breeze in the Gulf waters. Seas of 4-6 feet expected in the local Atlantic waters and 2 feet or less in the Gulf waters. Seas fall a bit further in the Atlantic today to 2-4 feet and should remain in this range for the rest of the week while Gulf seas remain at 1-2 feet or less. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1257 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A high risk for rip currents continues through at least Thursday this week. While this risk may decrease a bit for Friday and this weekend, an elevated risk may still persist into the weekend as onshore flow continues. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 69 83 71 85 / 0 0 0 0 West Kendall 65 85 67 87 / 0 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 69 84 70 87 / 0 0 0 0 Homestead 69 83 70 85 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 70 81 72 83 / 0 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 70 81 71 83 / 0 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 70 85 72 87 / 0 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 67 81 70 84 / 0 0 0 0 Boca Raton 70 81 71 83 / 0 0 0 0 Naples 64 85 67 87 / 0 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ168-172- 173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Redman LONG TERM....Redman AVIATION...Redman  968 FXUS63 KILX 150501 CCA AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1201 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Periods of thunderstorms will continue through early Saturday. A 15-30% risk for severe weather exists this afternoon, tomorrow night, and late Friday into Saturday. The primary risks this afternoon will be large hail and damaging winds. - With any training storms, heavy rainfall may result in localized flooding. There is a level 2 of 5 (slight) risk for excessive rainfall this evening northeast of a roughly Galesburg to Mattoon line. - After a warm work week, conditions will turn sharply cooler on Saturday. There will be a low (20-30%) chance for frost Saturday night north of I-70, and a higher chance area-wide Sunday night. && .UPDATE... Issued at 728 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 We continue to closely monitor storm potential across central Illinois this evening, however, the threat remains best across northern Illinois in the near term. Locally, very unstable conditions (MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg) are in place as sampled by both 18Z and 00Z soundings, albeit strongly capped at 18Z around 800mb. While the cap has largely eroded, the early afternoon shortwave trough has left subsidence in its wake across central Illinois this evening, which when coupled with loss of peak daytime heating, has resulted in dramatic thinning of the cumulus field across the central part of the state. Given the lack of forcing, lowered PoPs considerably to around 20% across central Illinois through the remainder of the evening. If on the off chance a storm is able to develop (perhaps associated with outflow from northern storms or strengthening low level jet), shear and instability remain favorable for any storms to be severe. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 133 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ***** BOOM OR BUST CONVECTIVE SCENARIO THIS AFTERNOON ***** At 1pm, a warm airmass was in place across central and southeast Illinois with temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s. Gulf moisture continues to surge into the region on 15-20 (gusting to 30) mph southwest breezes, with dewpoints currently in the mid 60s. Consequently, the airmass is becoming increasingly unstable with RAP mesoanalysis indicating 1500-3000 J/kg SBCAPE. A capping inversion should prevent convective initiation unless and until a trigger lifts parcels to the LFC, which at this point remains unclear. Recent iterations of the HRRR and several members of the 12z REFS suggest that cap will break, resulting in explosive convective development and scattered severe weather across the CWA by mid afternoon. However, about 60-70% of CAMs keep the cap in place throughout the evening - maintaining warm and breezy conditions. The 18z raob confirms this notion, depicting a 3 degC capping inversion around 800mb which would take a lot of forcing to overcome. Given the parameter space for severe weather is forecast to become volatile over the next few hours, with SBCAPEs climbing to 2500-4000 J/kg, 700-500 lapse rates reaching 8-8.5C/km, and 45-55 kt effective bulk wind shear, any storms that form would pose a risk for severe weather, especially large hail where storm relative inflow (from the SSW/SW) is unimpeded in right- moving supercells (favored by clockwise curved hodographs). In addition, a few of the more bullish models show localized pockets of 3+ inches of rain falling in a few hours with training storms, which could result in some hydrological issues; accordingly, WPC has expanded the level 2 of 5 (slight) risk for excessive rainfall southward into much of our CWA. We'll be keeping a close eye on mesoscale trends this afternoon to assess the potential and issue any necessary warnings. ***** MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW ***** We'll likely (50-70% chance) have a few more storms overnight tonight as a weakening MCS lifts up into our area from northeast Missouri. We may end up needing some short-fused wind headline if the HRRR and RRFS are correct in their depiction of a meso-high feature impacting our west/southwest counties between 11pm and 4am, though confidence in this scenario is also low. The upper level low will slowly approach our area tomorrow, with continued warm advection ahead of it bringing waves of thunderstorms through the Prairie State. It appears instability will be a bit weaker tomorrow due to widespread clouds and scattered storms limiting surface heating, though the risk for severe weather will increase during the late evening or early overnight period (8pm-2am) west of I-55 where a few CAMs bring a weakening line of storms capable of locally severe winds. ***** DRY THURSDAY(?), STORMS RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT ***** A weak cold front will settle across the district on Thursday, bringing a moment's repose from the active pattern. However, the front will lift back north Thursday night into Friday, when instability will build ahead of a more potent kinematic system. As with today, we'll be in the warm sector on Friday, so a volatile thermodynamic environment would support severe weather if a trigger ruptures the capping inversion. Otherwise, more numerous showers and storms will pass through the area along the cold front sometime late Friday night or Saturday morning. While this is not a diurnally favorable period for severe weather, the strong forcing with the cold front and 45-55 kt deep layer shear could result in at least scattered severe winds if a mature line of storms enters our area from the west Friday night...or develops along the cold front in eastern Illinois on Saturday. ***** COOLER WEATHER RETURNS SATURDAY ***** A cold front will cross the area sometime on Saturday, with stiff west winds ushering in a more seasonably cool airmass for the second half of the weekend. NBM indicates a 30-50% chance low temperatures by Saturday night fall to 36 deg or cooler north of I-70, though winds should remain elevated to prevent frost formation. The better opportunity will be Sunday night, when NBM chances are 30-60% area- wide for sub 37 degF lows and winds should be calm with surface high pressure parked across the CWA. Protective action may be needed to prevent frost from damaging tender vegetation. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1159 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A few rounds of TSRA are likely across the central IL terminals over the next 24 hours, starting around or just prior to daybreak. Timing when these may impact a particular terminal is very low confidence at this point, resulting in an extended period of PROB30 for TSRA into Wed evening. Away from storms, VFR conditions are expected. Southwest winds will continue through the period, gusting to 25 kt at times. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...Bumgardner UPDATE...Deubelbeiss DISCUSSION...Bumgardner AVIATION...25  396 FXUS64 KLCH 150503 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1203 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm, humid conditions will continue through the end of the week with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s. - A cold front will move through the region Saturday evening into early Sunday morning accompanied by showers and thunderstorms. - Cooler, drier air will move into the region Sunday through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1202 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Southern flow continues unabated as high pressure remains locked in place off the eastern seaboard. With the persistent advection of warm, moist Gulf air, our weather will remain warmer than usual with dew points in the 60s. Each afternoon, temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s with the possibility for temperatures to reach the 90s in central Louisiana on Friday and Saturday. For the remainder of the work week, conditions will be dry with no real chance of rain until this weekend. On Saturday afternoon, a cold front will move across the region causing widespread rain and the chance for a few thunderstorms. Total QPF remains fairly low with total rainfall amounts between 0.25 to 0.5 inches. Behind the front, cooler and drier air will flow into the region with highs dropping into the 70s and lows down into the 40s. This cool down will be short-lived, as south winds will start back up on Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1202 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Low clouds will cause MVFR conditions, especially for coastal terminals. After sunrise, conditions will be VFR with south winds around 10 to 15 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 1202 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 High pressure will continue the generally calm weather we have been seeing for the past several days. Steady onshore flow will remain around 10 to 15 knots with waves below 5 feet. On Saturday evening, a cold front will move offshore, causing widespread rain along with a wind shift. Winds look concerning for Sunday night/Monday, with offshore winds around 30 knots and gusts up to 40 knots being possible. Marine headlines are likely after the passage of the front. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1202 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Dry conditions will continue until Saturday, when a cold front will bring widespread rain. Ahead of the front, minimum RH values will be above 40% with light south winds. Sunday and Monday, minimum RH values will be around 30% with north winds. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...14 AVIATION...14  690 FXUS63 KLBF 150504 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 1204 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Moderate confidence in precipitation potential tonight into Wednesday - Moderate to high confidence in a return to near-critical fire conditions on Thursday as dry, warm, and breezy conditions return. - Moderate confidence in precipitation Friday and Friday night, with a low confidence of some light accumulating snow. - Moderate confidence in a cooler start to the weekend with temperatures returning to well above normal by early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Current radar imagery shows some widely scattered showers already occurring across portions of the Sandhills and into northern Nebraska this afternoon. A better potential for showers and isolated thunderstorms are still expected to develop late this afternoon and into the evening as a developing low pressure system over the Rockies begins to push eastward. At this time, the main low will remain just to the south along the Nebraska/Kansas border. This should keep the majority of the precipitation, not to mention severe potential, to the south and east. Some solutions still show some more organized convection developing across portions of southwest Nebraska by late evening. Current thinking is that these storms are not expected to be severe as the better instability and forcing remains to the southeast, some stronger wind gusts up to 50 mph or small hail cannot be ruled out. Overall, any precipitation we receive tonight and Wednesday morning will have limited QPF amounts... generally be under a quarter inch (0.25 inches), with up to a half inch (0.50 inches) possible in the heavier, more organized storms. The best potential to see any showers/storms will be between this evening, although some light showers may continue through sunrise. Lingering showers and embedded thunderstorms could continue into the early Wednesday morning hours, but overall coverage and intensity should diminish through the Wednesday morning hours and the main axis of precipitation moving off to the east through the afternoon. For temperatures, increasing clouds and precipitation will drop temperatures into the upper 60s to low 70s for Wednesday. Despite these cooler highs, they will still be nearly 10 degrees above normal. Overnight lows will also remain slightly above normal tonight through Wednesday night in the upper 30s to mid 40s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A return to dry conditions arrives on Thursday as weak ridging builds back into the central Plains. Warm air advection with 850 mb temperatures in the 12 to 16 C range will allow for surface highs to easily climb back into the low to mid 80s. These highs will be nearly 20 degrees above normal for this time of the year. Latest probability guidance suggests a maximum temperature over 80 degrees to be near 100 percent for locations generally east of US-83. Increasing the probability to over 85 degrees, much of that same area still has a nearly 70 to 80 percent or higher probability. In addition, looking at the latest EFI/SoT guidance, the EFI remain high (0.7 to 0.8), but SoT is fairly low. Therefore confidence is high that there may be some very warm, unseasonable temperatures, but not necessarily record-breaking high temperatures on Thursday. Would even expect the going forecasted highs to rise another couple degrees over the next few days potentially into the mid to upper 80s for much of the region. The drier conditions will be brief as the next system arrives Thursday night lasting into Saturday. An upper level trough will dig south along the Rockies Thursday night, pushing into the High Plains by Friday and into the central Plains by Saturday. This trough and associated front will bring some precipitation to the region beginning as early as Thursday night across northwest Nebraska and into the Pine Ridge. Precipitation will gradually push south and east during the day Friday. There is still some uncertainty in precip type and where the rain/snow cut off line will be. For the most part, after a brief period of rain Thursday night, will expect mostly all snow across the Pine Ridge as temperatures remain cooler in this region. Still, maximum temperatures are expected to rise into the low 40s by Friday afternoon in the Pine Ridge which may inhibit any snow or at least make accumulations more difficult. Further to the south and east, precipitation will start off as all rain, but as the trough pushes east and colder air behind it filters into the region, a gradual change over to snow is expected. Once the sun sets in the evening and temperatures drop into the low to mid 30s, any lingering precipitation will transition over to snow. How much snow falls will be highly dependent on the precipitation track and if any precipitation will remain over our area by the time temperatures drop enough for snow to accumulate. Looking at the latest probabilities, the highest potential (over 50 percent) to see accumulating snow will be across the Pine Ridge and in areas mainly north and west of a Ogallala to Valentine line which seems to line up well with where the coldest temperatures are expected. Accumulations are still uncertain, but will continue to monitor this over the next few days. Heading into the weekend, upper level ridging builds back across the western US with surface high pressure returning to the central Plains allowing for a dry weekend to prevail. There is some low end chance PoPs of some light lingering snow across portions of the Sandhills and into north central Nebraska on Saturday morning and early afternoon. Confidence is low in any precipitation development at this time and not expecting any significant impacts from snow if it does develop. Cold air advection will push 850 mb temperatures in the 0 to -6 C range into Nebraska keeping highs only in the 50s on Saturday. Overnight lows will also remain chilly int he low to mid 20s both Friday and Saturday nights. Temperatures gradually warm into the mid 60s to low 70s on Sunday and eventually back into the low to mid 80s by Tuesday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1205M CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Overnight there will be continued threat for light rain showers across southwestern Nebraska, impacting the KLBF terminal through 12z Wednesday. Ceilings will range from 6000 to 10000 FT AGL overnight for the KLBF terminal. Look for skies to gradually clear mid morning with clear skies expected after 18z Wednesday. At the KVTN terminal, expect scattered to broken ceilings ranging from 10000 to 20000 FT AGL into the early morning hours. Skies will then gradually clear out with a few mid to high clouds expected to persist into Wednesday afternoon. Skies will then clear out Wednesday evening. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for NEZ204-206-208>210-219. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kulik LONG TERM...Kulik AVIATION...Buttler  109 FXUS65 KPUB 150506 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1106 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Passing system to bring showers to the Northern and Central mountains tonight, with a few showers possible across Pikes Peak region and northern portions of the southeast plains. - A dry and seasonal Wednesday with spotty elevated fire danger. - Breezy and warm Thursday with the return of widespread critical fire weather conditions - Next storm system brings cooler and unsettled weather for Friday and Saturday, along with the potential for widespread sub-freezing temperatures Saturday and Sunday mornings. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 231 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Water vapor imagery and satellite data indicates upper low currently spinning across west central Colorado, with drier air within the moderate southwest flow aloft starting to filter across southern Colorado. Regional radars indicating scattered showers, and a few embedded thunderstorms spreading across the higher terrain at this time. Strengthening lee trough across the plains has helped to develop breezy south to southwest winds across southern portions of the plains at this time, with gusty southwest winds in place across the higher terrain. Latest model data remains in good agreement of said upper low weakening as it continues to lift out into northeastern Colorado this evening, with a broad upper trough then continuing into the Northern High Plains through the day on Wednesday. This will keep showers and a few embedded thunderstorms spreading out across the the Northern and Central mtns this afternoon, with a few possible showers across the Pikes Peak region and Palmer Dvd region through the evening as the passing waves cold front pushes south and east through the late evening and into early Wednesday morning. Passing showers could produce a quick inch or two of snow, with snow levels down to around 7500 feet this evening with the passing wave. Gusty southwest winds of 20 to 40 mph across the plains this afternoon become more west to northwest through the evening before diminishing behind said cold front overnight. This will keep critical fire weather conditions in place through the early evening, with current Red Flag Warning in place through 8 pm MDT. Cooler air associated with the passing wave will bring in cooler overnight lows mainly in the 30s across the plains, with teens and 20s expected across the higher terrain. Drier air within the the moderating west to northwest flow aloft will keep dry conditions in place tomorrow, save for a few possible showers across the Central mtns, with temperatures expected to be at to slightly above seasonal norms in the 60s to low 70s across the plains, and mainly in the 40s and 50s across the higher terrain. Afternoon westerly breezes could bring some spotty elevated fire danger to the interior valleys and gap prone areas, however coverage will not be enough to warrant any fire weather highlights. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 231 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Latest model data is also in good agreement of increasing west to southwest flow aloft across the region on Thursday, as the next upper trough out the Pacific Northwest digs across the Intermountain West. This will keep warm and dry conditions in place, and with gusty westerly winds, support more widespread critical fire weather conditions on Thursday, with current Fire Weather Watch for most of south central and southeast Colorado remain in place. Models are trending faster the broad upper trough translating across the Rockies through the day on Friday, bringing a quick shot of precipitation to the region Friday into Friday night. This system is progged to be colder than previous systems, with snow levels down to between 6000-7000 on Friday. The quicker movement of the system and associated cold front early Friday morning looks to keep critical fire weather conditions at bay on Friday, with high temperatures across the plains likely being reached early in the day, with cooling and breezy northerly winds being progged behind the front. With the colder air in place behind the passing system, overnight lows look to be well below freezing in the teens and 20s into Saturday morning. Those who may have already turned on irrigation systems or planted will need to monitor the forecast and may want to take proactive steps to prevent any damage from the projected sub-freezing temperatures. Dry conditions with below seasonal temperatures in the 50s and 60s can be expected on Saturday across the plains, with highs in the 40s and 50s across the higher terrain. Another period of at and below freezing temperatures in the 20s and 30s is expected Saturday night into Sunday morning, will lead to warming trend into early next week, as upper level ridging builds back across the Rockies. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1105 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. Winds will will generally be light and diurnally driven. We could see some modest westerly gusty flow at KPUB and KALS tomorrow afternoon. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for COZ220>222-224>237. && $$ SHORT TERM...MW LONG TERM...MW AVIATION...HODANISH  386 FXUS64 KLUB 150508 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1208 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1208 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Mainly dry weather is expected through the rest of this week and into the upcoming weekend. - Elevated to near critical fire danger will develop each afternoon through Friday, especially on the Caprock. - Much cooler temperatures arrive this weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Wednesday night) Issued at 1031 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A positively tilted upper level trough axis just east of the Four Corners as of late Tuesday evening will continue to shift eastward over the next 24 hours, with flow aloft over West TX consequently weakening and becoming more zonal. At the surface, a dryline will reside near the edge of the Caprock through Wednesday morning, with lingering isolated shower and thunderstorm activity set to end before midday. The dryline will quickly exit to our east by early Wednesday afternoon as deep downslope westerly low level flow establishes across the region in response to expansive surface troughing developing over the TX Panhandle. Storm chances Wednesday afternoon and evening are therefore expected to remain to our east, with a warm and dry day expected Wednesday across the forecast area. RH values will fall to or below 10 percent, which combined with west winds around 15 to 20 mph will result in elevated fire danger across much of the region. Quiet and seasonably cool conditions are expected Wednesday night with lows mainly in the 40s to low 50s by Thursday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1031 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Flow aloft will back to a more southwesterly direction Thursday into Friday as deep mid/upper level troughing advances over the intermountain west. However, surface moisture will be slow to return to our area with dry downslope winds set to continue through the day on Thursday, leading to another afternoon of warm temperatures and increased fire weather concerns. Low level moisture will finally increase Thursday night into early Friday, but is expected to be rather shallow. A subset of guidance hints at some light precipitation on Thursday night, but a general lack of deeper moisture and forcing for ascent casts doubt on the potential for anything more than a deck of low clouds and some light rain showers or weak storms heading into Friday morning. This moisture will be quick to exit by later in the day Friday, with dry west winds strengthening and bringing another period of increased fire danger to most of the area on Friday afternoon. Otherwise, a strong cold front is still on track to pass through the region early Saturday which will bring much cooler temperatures for the weekend. The weekend also looks to remain dry across our area, but low chances for showers and storms will return by early next week as moist low level return flow reestablishes across the region. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR. The southerly breeze will transition towards the west by the late morning and early afternoon hours at KCDS, KLBB, and KPVW. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1031 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 West winds will gradually increase after sunrise Wednesday, with 20 foot wind speeds expected to peak around 15 mph on Wednesday afternoon. A much drier airmass is also expected Wednesday, which combined with warm temperatures will result in RH values in the single digits. RFTI values up to 4 will be almost entirely RH-driven given the relatively light 20 foot wind speeds, so this should keep fire danger capped at elevated. A Fire Danger Statement is in effect for most of the Caprock and southern TX Panhandle from 12 PM to 8 PM Wednesday. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...09  992 FXUS63 KGRB 150508 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1208 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Flooding continues in some urban, low-lying, and poor drainage areas across central and east-central Wisconsin through late tonight. - Minor to moderate river flooding is ongoing or forecast to occur on several area rivers. Expect many rivers to rise this week due to additional rain and runoff from Upper Michigan, with the greatest impacts expected on the Menominee River, where some locations may see major flooding during the mid to late part of the week. - Additional rounds of rain and thunderstorms are expected at times Wednesday through this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 405 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Severe Storm Potential Late This Afternoon/Evening...A surface boundary (warm front) was orientated west-east just on the southern edge of the forecast area this afternoon. This boundary will gradually lift north into the southern portion of the forecast area this afternoon due to persistent southwesterly flow, ushering in moist, unstable air. The atmosphere will be primed across the southern portion of the forecast area with steep mid- level lapse rates, 50-60 kts of deep-layer shear, and around 1000 to 2000 J/kg of MUCAPE, supporting the potential for severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds being the main hazards. However, just along the southern portion of the forecast area, CAMs and current surface analysis indicate some surface- based CAPE of 1000 to 1500 J/kg, effective SRH of 100-200 m2/s2, and steep low-level lapse rates, favoring a tornado threat in addition to the large hail and damaging winds. After coordination with SPC and surrounding offices, a Tornado Watch was issued for Waushara, Winnebago, Calumet, and Manitowoc counties until 10 PM tonight (Tuesday). Depending on how far north the boundary lifts, the tornado threat could reach into the next northern tier of counties. PWATs of 1-1.25 inches are forecast with these storms, causing a risk of at least additional flooding in urban, low- lying, and poor drainage areas, and a risk of flash flooding, especially where ongoing flooding impacts from Monday evening's storms remain. Possible Dense Fog Tonight...Following this evening's showers and thunderstorms, models indicate low-level moisture/stratus expanding into the area from the northeast. Given the low-level moisture and the ongoing low-level moisture over the area already, fog is likely going to occur. Models indicate visibilities may drop as low as 1/4 mile at times. A Dense Fog Advisory may be needed late tonight into Wednesday morning. Rain and Thunderstorms Wednesday-Monday...A surface low is forecast to lift into the Upper Mississippi Valley Wednesday into Thursday, bringing another round of rain and possible thunderstorms. MUCAPE of 200-400 J/kg looks to stay confined to the southern portions of the forecast area leaving a marginal risk for severe storms. Although rainfall amounts with this system look less impressive, any additional rainfall will still add to the ongoing flooding risk. A more dynamic trough is slated to impact the region late Friday into early Saturday, bringing additional widespread rainfall and storms. The northward extent of greater instability is somewhat uncertain with this system, impacting severe weather potential, but this will be something to watch in the coming days. Cooler air will trail behind this system, which may bring potential for snow across the far north on Saturday associated with the wrap-around moisture from the main low pressure system. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1205 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A stationary warm front remains positioned across the southern Fox Valley tonight. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to impact northeast Wisconsin, primarily affecting KGRB, KATW, and KMTW through 08z. While the severe threat has diminished, brief reductions in visibility remain possible in any stronger cells. Following the departure of the precipitation, low-level moisture and stratus will expand across the region from the northeast. Flight conditions are expected to deteriorate rapidly to LIFR or VLIFR at all terminals overnight. Dense fog is anticipated over areas which received rain this evening, from central to east- central WI, with visibilities frequently dropping to 1/2SM or less. Confidence is high in these poor flight conditions persisting through at least 14z-15z Wednesday. Conditions will be slow to improve Wednesday morning. Fog and ceilings are forecast to lift more quickly over north-central Wisconsin (KRHI) than areas further south and east. Persistent MVFR ceilings are expected to linger through Wednesday afternoon across east-central Wisconsin, while KMTW may remain IFR for much of the day due to onshore flow. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is possible Wednesday night as additional energy moves into central Wisconsin, likely leading to a return of IFR conditions. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 405 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Despite no precipitation falling from this morning through early this afternoon, several locations across east-central WI were still dealing with flooding impacts where a maximum of 4.5-5.5 inches of rainfall fell from Monday's storms along an axis from Stevens Point to Bonduel, with a more broad swath of 1-3" south of HWY 8. An additional 0.5-1" of rain is expected across east- central WI this afternoon/evening, which will only exacerbate flooding concerns. Runoff from snow melt in Upper Michigan is also still expected to bring moderate to possibly major flooding on the Menominee River, especially during the mid to late part of the week. If you live near a river or stream, keep a close eye on water levels this week and monitor the latest Flood Warnings from the National Weather Service in Green Bay. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for WIZ022-035>040-045- 048>050. && $$ DISCUSSION.....Kruk AVIATION.......MPC HYDROLOGY......Kruk  417 FXUS61 KPHI 150508 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 108 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible later this afternoon into this evening which may be capable of producing damaging winds north and west of the I-95 corridor. Another threat for isolated thunderstorms is possible later Wednesday into Wednesday night. 2. Potentially record breaking warmth is possible this week with very warm and above normal temperatures continuing through the upcoming weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1....Isolated showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening may be capable of producing damaging winds north and west of the I-95 corridor. Another threat for isolated thunderstorms is possible later Wednesday into Wednesday night. A remnant MCS that was across the Great Lakes earlier has weakened while crossing through Pennsylvania. Still, the diurnal heating from earlier has created numerous showers and a few thunderstorms which have moves across western/central PA earlier this evening. While the rains have started to weaken, we have upped POPs a bit for the rest of the evening and added a chances for a thunderstorms too. The threat for severe weather is low however, just a few downpours and some gusty winds possible. Any convective activity should wane through the evening hours and conclude overnight. For Wednesday, there is another chance for isolated severe weather across portions of eastern PA and northwest NJ where a Marginal Risk is now in place for some isolated damaging winds and small hail. However, it is worth noting that this threat is highly conditional depending on how convection evolves from upstream and with any remaining boundaries. Much of the latest available forecast guidance depicts a MCS tracking across the Great Lakes region tonight before fizzling near the Appalachian region. Similar to today, diurnal heating will likely contribute to some reinvigorating of convection in the afternoon. For now, the threat for severe weather is similar today, but will ultimately depend on how upstream convection evolves. Forecast guidance notoriously struggles with these types of scenarios, so confidence on Wednesday's threat is low. KEY MESSAGE 2...Potentially record breaking warmth is possible this week with very warm and above normal temperatures continuing through the upcoming weekend. High confidence remains in early season heat with a significant warm up expected through the middle of the week and into the upcoming weekend with the potential for record breaking temperatures. With high pressure situated over the Atlantic Ocean and the warm front well north of the Mid-Atlantic region, continued warmth is expected. Very warm air aloft coupled with warm air at surface levels will allow temperatures to be as much as 15 to 30 degrees above average this week. As of now, forecast highs are in the mid/upper 80s to low 90s on both Wednesday and Thursday, though Thursday may be a touch cooler due to more cloud cover. See Climate Section below regarding potential record breaking temperatures through Thursday. At this point, temperatures are expected to reach at least 90F for much urban corridor on Wednesday and Thursday. This would be first 90 degree day of the year and first since early September. As is typical in spring though, temperatures along/near the coast will be significantly cooler due to the colder sea surface temperatures and diurnal sea breeze. While a weak surface front passes through early Friday morning, temperatures will stay well above normal through the weekend with temps mainly in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Temperatures finally appear to cool back toward seasonable levels early next week. Not only will it be very warm over the course of the week, but it will also remain mainly dry. This is of elevated concern for ongoing drought/abnormally dry conditions over much of the area, which will likely only get worse after this week. A few weak disturbances will pass by to the north through Thursday, but other than a stray shower or thunderstorm each afternoon north of the I-95 corridor, no significant rainfall is expected. Flow will generally be out of the southwest, which is more favorable in terms of moisture, which will likely hinder the fire weather concerns this week. Winds will generally be light as well, as another limiting factor. So, even though it will be warm and dry, fire weather concerns are minimal. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Through 12z...VFR. Cannot rule out some patchy fog (10-15% chance) but not high enough to include in any TAF site. Southwest winds around 5 kt. Moderate confidence. Wednesday...Primarily VFR. Late day/early evening showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop near and north of I-78 which could affect KABE/KRDG (15-25% chance). Bulk of the convection should stay to the north though. I-95 and South Jersey terminals should be well south of any showers/thunderstorms. Southwest winds around 5-10 kt in the morning, increasing to around 10-15 kt in the afternoon, with gusts around 20 kt. Moderate confidence. Wednesday Night...VFR. Showers near KABE/KRDG until about 03z-04z which could result in some restrictions. Southwest winds 5 to 10 kt. Moderate confidence. Outlook... Thursday through Friday...Prevailing VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms (~20-50%) in the afternoon and evening hours each day for the Lehigh Valley and I-95 terminals. Friday night through Sunday...VFR. A few showers possible through the weekend, otherwise no significant weather. && .MARINE... No marine headlines are in effect through Wednesday. South-southwest winds around 10-15 kt with gusts around 20 kt are expected with seas around 2-4 feet. Fair weather. Outlook... Wednesday night through Saturday night...No marine headlines expected. Winds generally remain below 20 kt with seas around 2-4 feet. A few showers possible. Sunday...Small Craft Advisories possible due to wind gusts around 25 kt and seas around 3-5 feet. Showers likely. && .CLIMATE... Warm temperatures well above normal are expected for the upcoming week. Wednesday is currently projected to be the warmest day, though Tuesday through Thursday could see some records broken depending on the site. Record highs on Tuesday April 14 were tied at Wilmington and Georgetown today, with a record high set in Atlantic City. No record warmest lows were set on Tuesday. Below are record highs and record high minimum temperatures for April 15th through April 16th. Record High Temperatures April 15 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 86/1941 & 1994 AC Airport (ACY) 90/1967 AC Marina (55N) 86/1941 Georgetown (GED) 86/1960 & 2024 Mount Pocono (MPO) 82/1941 Philadelphia (PHL) 88/1941 Reading (RDG) 86/1941 & 1994 Trenton (TTN) 87/1994 Wilmington (ILG) 86/1896 Record Warmest Low Temperatures April 15 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 59/2002 AC Airport (ACY) 61/2002 AC Marina (55N) 59/2006 Georgetown (GED) 65/2002 Mount Pocono (MPO) 58/2002 Philadelphia (PHL) 64/2002 Reading (RDG) 64/1938 Trenton (TTN) 63/2002 Wilmington (ILG) 62/2002 Record High Temperatures April 16 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 90/2012 AC Airport (ACY) 89/2002 AC Marina (55N) 88/2002 Georgetown (GED) 89/2002 Mount Pocono (MPO) 85/2002 Philadelphia (PHL) 90/2002 Reading (RDG) 90/2012 Trenton (TTN) 91/2012 Wilmington (ILG) 92/1896 Record Warmest Low Temperatures April 16 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 60/1941 AC Airport (ACY) 62/2002 AC Marina (55N) 64/2002 Georgetown (GED) 65/2012 Mount Pocono (MPO) 56/2002 Philadelphia (PHL) 62/2002 Reading (RDG) 65/1941 Trenton (TTN) 62/2002 Wilmington (ILG) 63/2002 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DeSilva AVIATION...DeSilva/Hoeflich MARINE...DeSilva  215 FXUS64 KSJT 150509 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1209 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorm chances will persist into Wednesday, with a threat for severe storms each day. - A cold front is expected on Saturday, bringing low rain chances and considerably cooler temperatures for the upcoming weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 213 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...Severe Storms possible this afternoon and evening.. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop off a dryline...in the eastern Permian Basin south to the Big Bend this afternoon. These storms have the potential for severe weather as they move northeast and east into the evening. A mesoscale discussion has been issued by SPC that includes portions of the Big Country, Concho Valley and Crockett county for an 80 percent chance of a watch. Instability is high at 3000 J/KG. Very large hail of 2-3 inch diameter and severe winds possible along with isolated tornadoes. Later tonight after midnight, some of the shortterm convective models also have a second group of showers and thunderstorms, probably with an upper level disturbance. These storms become isolated by Wednesday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 116 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 There is a slight chance for isolated thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. Although we will likely cap rain chances at 20% with this activity without much in the way of forcing, or upper level support in our area. There is a better chance of more widespread coverage to our north, and in fact there is a Slight Risk for severe weather north of Interstate 20 in our area, with a Marginal Risk for the rest of the CWA. The main concerns with any storms tomorrow afternoon/evening will be large hail and damaging wind gusts. Thursday and Friday look to be quieter than the past few days, with weaker upper level, and only weak upper level shortwave energy moving through. In addition to the lack of rainfall, temperatures will surge into the mid to upper 80s. Friday night into Saturday, a strong upper level trough will move through the northern and central plains and then into the Great Lakes region. A strong cold front will move into west-central Texas after midnight, moving south of I-10 by mid morning Saturday. Although upper level support for convection will be north of our area, the lift along the cold front may be enough to support a line of showers and thunderstorms along and behind the front as it moves through. Much cooler temperatures are expected Saturday through early next week. After highs in the mid 80s to around 90 degrees on Saturday, we are expecting highs in the mid 60s to around 70 Saturday through Monday. Could see additional precipitation chances by next Monday as upper level shortwave energy moves through and interacts with warm air advection starting back up. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Convection continues across portions of the Edwards Plateau early this morning and may approach the KJCT terminal over the next few hours. Have continued the PROB30 down there for now, but have kept the remainder of the terminals dry for now. Given the convection to the south and the extensive high cloudiness, have also pushed back the onset of low clouds (MVFR) cigs across the rest of the terminals by a few hours, although still think most of them will eventually see these MVFR cigs by near or shortly after sunrise. Otherwise, CAMs continue to be widely separated in if/when convection redevelops this afternoon. Given the very large uncertainty, will leave any mention of convection out of the forecast for the afternoon hours for now. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 63 88 66 89 / 10 10 10 10 San Angelo 62 88 65 88 / 10 10 10 10 Junction 61 87 61 88 / 10 10 0 10 Brownwood 62 86 64 86 / 10 10 10 10 Sweetwater 62 90 66 90 / 0 10 10 10 Ozona 62 85 64 86 / 10 10 10 10 Brady 62 85 64 86 / 10 10 10 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....20 AVIATION...07  914 FXUS63 KLOT 150510 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 1210 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Late spring to summer-like temperatures continue through Friday with highs in the 70s and 80s and lows in the 60s. - Threat for additional isolated to scattered severe weather overnight and on Wednesday PM, along with a heavy rain and associated flash flooding threat from repeated rounds of thunderstorms overnight into Wednesday. - A brief break in the pattern is expected late Thursday into or through the day on Friday before another storm system arrives in the Friday evening to Saturday timeframe. - In the wake of the Saturday cold front, a brief, potentially sharp, shot of much cooler air could bring frost/freeze concerns into next Sunday and Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 312 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Through Wednesday night... The primary weather focus in the near term continues to revolve around the continued threat for a significant severe weather event this evening. This includes the threat of tornadoes, instances of very large hail (2"+ diameter) and damaging winds in excess of 70 mph. The threat of flash flooding is also of increasing concern tonight into Wednesday, due to repeated rounds of very heavy rain producing storms. A recent surface analysis indicates that the stalled west-to- east oriented frontal boundary continues to reside north of the area this afternoon, generally from northeastern IA eastward across southern WI. Meanwhile, the outflow boundary from this mornings convection has largely washed out, with a notable airmass recovery across northeastern IL, noted by temperatures rebounding into the low 80s amidst surface dewpoints in the mid 60s. Interestingly, while this afternoon's airmass recovery beneath a corridor of very steep mid-level lapse rates has resulted in moderate to strong MLCAPE values in excess of 3,000 j/kg, a notable capping EML inversion remains in place. This is apparent on the 18Z DVN RAOB, with a sharp EML inversion noted around 800 mb. While this cap is currently curtailing convective development, the sampled thermodynamic and kinematic environment is quite volatile and will be supportive of significant severe weather as we head through the evening. While some isolated to widely scattered supercells capable of producing large hail will be possible this afternoon as a subtle impulse continues to slide eastward across central and eastern IL into northwestern IN, the primary severe thunderstorm threat continues to be this evening, particularly across northern IL and southern Wisconsin. Initial severe storm development is expected near the stalled frontal boundary in northeastern IA within the next hour or two. In fact, current satellite and radar imagery indicate several convective attempts already underway in this area. As development occurs, storm modes will initially favor supercells, though a eventual upscale growth is anticipated through the evening. Very steep mid-level lapse rates and long straight hodographs will favor instances of very large destructive hail with these initial supercells. However, strengthening low- level flow and the associated enlarging low- level hodographs into early this evening will will support a notable tornado threat for a few hours this evening (6-9 pm). This tornado threat is expected to be the highest across far northern IL into southern WI (generally along and north of I-88). Upscale growth into a severe wind producing MCS, with potential embedded QLCS tornadoes is then likely to occur through the evening as this activity progresses eastward through southern WI and far northern IL. Accordingly, the main severe threats look to transition to damaging wind gusts in excess of 70 mph and isolated tornadoes later this evening. Increasingly confidence has prompted the recent issuance of a tornado watch for most of northern IL through this evening. While the severe threat should largely wane by midnight tonight, the threat for training showers and thunderstorms may continue across parts of northern IL into the overnight hours. A veering low-level jet overnight may set up favorable conditions for training and backbuilding storms as the flow offsets the easterly movement. This adds concern for flash flooding, particularly given that this activity could train over the urban areas of Chicago. At this time we have opted to hold off on a flash flood watch, though as trends become more clear this evening one may be needed. We did highlight the threat for possible flooding concerns in a Hydro outlook (ESF), but again, messaging may need to be ramped up to a Watch this evening. Additional waves of showers and thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday. The amount of cloud cover and periods of rain does make it unclear as to the extent and coverage of severe storms due to questions of diurnal destabilization. Nevertheless, a level 1 to 2 out of 5 severe weather threat continues on Wednesday afternoon and evening. Regardless of the overall severe threat, flooding and flash flooding will continue to be of concern Wednesday into Wednesday night, owing to the repeated instances of very heavy rainfall. Accordingly, a future flood watch may be needed for the tonight through Wednesday time period. Thursday onward... A short period of drier weather is expected late Thursday into Friday morning following the eastward departure of the mid- level impulse ejecting out of the Desert Southwest. However, yet another storm system and associated cold front is favored to shift across the central CONUS Friday night into Saturday morning. Locally, another threat of strong to severe thunderstorms will exist in advance of cold front, which should move across our area sometime Saturday morning. In the wake of this cold front, a period of much cooler weather will move in across the area Sunday into Monday. The magnitude of this colder airmass may result in freezing overnight low temperatures and afternoon highs only in the low 50s for Sunday. KJB && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1210 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Aviation forecast concerns for the 06Z TAFs: - Periods of TSRA, particularly remainder of overnight, and again late Wednesday afternoon/evening. Brief IFR/MVFR possible in precipitation. Scattered SHRA possible at other times. - Winds likely convectively disturbed with somewhat variable directions for the next several hours, otherwise mainly southwest to south winds (breezy at times with gusts 20-25 kts). Late evening surface analysis depicts an area of low pressure over north-central KS, with a quasi-stationary frontal boundary extending northeast across IA into southern WI. A thunderstorm complex which moved across northern IL late Tuesday evening was moving east across lower MI, though storms continue to redevelop back across northwest IN/northeast IL along and northeast of a west-east oriented outflow boundary trailing the aforementioned complex. Additional thunderstorms have developed along the stationary front roughly along a a KOMA-KDSM-KCID line. Expectation is that scattered TS will continue to redevelop across the Chicago terminals as the low-level jet ascends atop the west-east outflow boundary, at least for another 2-3 hours or so. High-res guidance (RRFS/HREF) indicates IA TSRA will spread into parts of northern IL after 09-10Z, potentially lingering through daybreak or slightly later before weakening and moving east of the area. Terminals will remain within a region of broad southwest warm/moist advection however, which could result in isolated/scattered SHRA just about any time Wednesday. Can't rule out some isolated TS during the day, though the next best window for greater TSRA coverage appears to be late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening/night. Surface winds have become convectively disturbed across northern IL at this time in the wake of the departing complex. While winds should eventually settle back to a south-southwest, current winds do have some variability in direction north of the aforementioned outflow boundary. Once winds do shift back to the south-southwest, breezy conditions are likely with gusts 20-25 kts at times. Ratzer && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Flood Watch until 6 AM CDT Wednesday for ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005- ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ020-ILZ103-ILZ104- ILZ105-ILZ106-ILZ107-ILZ108. IN...Flood Watch until 6 AM CDT Wednesday for INZ001. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago  644 FXUS65 KTFX 150511 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1111 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Aviation Section Updated. .KEY MESSAGES... - It will be windy this afternoon along the Northern Rocky Mountain Front. - It will be windy in Southwestern Montana on Wednesday. - Widespread precipitation returns Wednesday evening through Friday morning with colder temperatures on Thursday and Friday. && .DISCUSSION... /Issued 554 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026/ - Meteorological Overview: This afternoon there will be upper-level zonal flow over North- central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will keep warm weather over the area. Due to a strong surface pressure gradient this afternoon it will be windy along the Northern Rocky Mountain Front and plains west of I-15. This evening due to an upper-level shortwave there will be snow along the Northern Rocky Mountain Front. On Wednesday there is an upper-level ridge ahead of an approaching upper-level trough over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This combined with the southerly winds aloft will bring warm temperatures to the area with windy conditions in the valleys of Southwestern Montana. Due to the warm temperatures and southerly flow aloft instability will increase and isolated locations could see a rumble of thunder Wednesday afternoon. See the Forecast Confidence & Scenarios Section for details. On Wednesday snow will continue along the Northern Rocky Mountain Front. Wednesday afternoon/evening a Pacific Front will move across North- central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will bring a heavy band of snow along the I-90 Corridor late Wednesday afternoon through early Wednesday evening. Wednesday afternoon and early evening across North-central and Central Montana initially there will be rain showers before transitioning to snow showers Wednesday night. On Thursday an upper-level trough is over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This combined with the cold front will bring well-below seasonal averages for temperatures on Thursday. During the day on Thursday there will be snow showers across North- central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. On Friday the upper- level trough remains over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. On Friday due to the upper-level trough it will be cold in the morning with temperatures warming up some in the afternoon with mostly dry weather. On Saturday and Sunday an upper-level ridge moves over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will bring warm and dry weather to the area for the weekend. -IG - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: Across southwestern Montana there is greater than an 80% chance for snowfall rates in excess of 1 inch per hour Wednesday evening. Along the I-90 corridor Wednesday afternoon/early evening there is greater than a 50% chance for surface instability combined with a tenth of an inch of snowfall accumulation (i.e. a snow squall). The greatest risk from any snow squall will be a sudden reduction in visibility. On Wednesday south of the Montana Highway 200 Corridor there is a 15 - 30% chance for thunder. From Wednesday tonight through Friday morning there is greater than a 90% chance for 9 inches of snow or greater across the Madison and Gallatin Mountains. As a result a Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for those areas from Wednesday evening through Friday morning. From tonight through Thursday morning there is greater than a 50% chance for 6 inches of snow or greater along the Northern Rocky Mountain Front. As a result a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the Northern Rocky Mountain Front from midnight tonight through Thursday morning. Across the valleys of Southwestern Montana from Wednesday evening through Thursday evening there is a greater than a 50% chance for 2 inches of snow or greater. Across the lower- elevations of North-central and Central Montana from Wednesday evening through Thursday evening there is greater than a 35% chance for 1 inch of snow or greater. Wednesday evening through Thursday evening across the Little Belts, Highwoods, and Southern Rocky Mountain Front there is greater than a 75% chance for 4 inches of snow or greater. On Wednesday there is a 30 - 60% chance for wind gusts of 55 mph or greater across the valleys of Southwestern Montana. As a result across the Madison and the Beaverhead River Valleys a High Wind Watch remains in effect during the day on Wednesday. Friday morning there is greater than a 50% chance for a low temperatures of 15 degrees or colder along the Hi-Line. -IG && .AVIATION... 15/06Z TAF Period A potent spring storm and series of cold front will move over/across the Northern Rockies over the next 24-48 hours, with the Pacific front ushering rain/snow showers from west to east across Southwest through North Central Montana from the late morning through afternoon hours on Wednesday. Following the passage of the Pacific front more steady precipitation will being to settle in for the remainder of the evening hours, especially across Southwest Montana, with a cold front pushing south of the Canadian border between 03-06z Thursday. Low-VFR/VFR conditions will fall to low-VFR across most terminals beyond 15-21z Wednesday, with the exception of the KWYS terminal where LIFR/IFR/MVFR conditions are expected over this timeframe. Southerly winds will be strong and gusty at the KEKS terminal between 15/15z and 16/03z, especially beneath shower activity. - Moldan && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 41 59 27 37 / 0 40 90 60 CTB 34 54 20 31 / 10 20 60 50 HLN 38 58 27 39 / 10 80 90 80 BZN 36 59 27 38 / 10 60 100 80 WYS 28 45 26 33 / 10 90 100 100 DLN 36 57 26 36 / 0 50 100 80 HVR 39 61 25 35 / 0 20 80 50 LWT 37 58 26 35 / 10 60 90 60 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM MDT Thursday for East Glacier Park Region. Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday evening through late Thursday night for Gallatin and Madison County Mountains and Centennial Mountains. High Wind Watch from 9 AM MDT Wednesday through Wednesday afternoon for Beaverhead and Western Madison below 6000ft- Madison River Valley. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls  843 FXUS65 KFGZ 150515 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1015 PM MST Tue Apr 14 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Isolated showers continue into Tuesday evening as the current storm system moves eastward. Another round of windy weather is expected Thursday, followed by cooler temperatures Friday as a weather system passes to our north. The weekend looks dry with warmer daytime temperatures and well below normal morning lows. && .DISCUSSION...Much cooler weather has arrived following the passage of last night's low pressure system. Mid day temperatures were in the 40s at mountain locations with 50s at lower elevations. Although the main low has moved into western Colorado, a trailing shortwave will bring the potential for isolated showers for the remainder of the afternoon and well into the evening from around the Mogollon Rim northward. Any rain showers that develop could be mixed with graupel down to near 6000 feet elevation. Wednesday - a shortwave ridge moves in briefly, bringing temperatures back near normal and lighter southwest winds of 10-15 mph. Thursday and Friday - another trough is forecast to pass by to our north, bringing southwest winds gusting to 35-45 mph and continued mild weather Thursday, followed by much cooler temperatures Friday. Friday's winds will shift to northwesterly gusting 25-35 mph. In the latest model guidance, the trough passes too far north for precipitation in Arizona, with PoP values less than 10% along the northern border Thursday night/Friday. Very dry air behind this shortwave and decreasing winds could lead to some of the coldest temperatures we've seen in well over a month on Saturday morning at high country locations. If you live above 5000 feet you should plan on protecting any outside plants and/or disconnecting hoses. The rest of the weekend looks dry with a warming trend. Southwest winds may increase again early next week as another low approaches the southwest United States, but there is still plenty of spread in the track and timing of the system so confidence is low right now. && .AVIATION...Wednesday 15/06Z through Thursday 16/06Z...VFR conditions with light and variable winds through 18Z, then becoming SW-W 5-15 kts. OUTLOOK...Thursday 16/06Z through Saturday 18/06Z...VFR conditions. SW winds 15-25 kts with gusts to 30-40 kts on Thursday, staying locally gusty Thursday night. Winds become W-NW 10-20 kts with gusts 20-30 kts on Friday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday...Dry conditions with seasonable temperatures. Winds are southwest through west 5-15 mph on Wednesday, then increase to 15-25 mph gusting 30-45 mph on Thursday. Minimum RH is 10-20% each day. Friday through Sunday...Dry through the period. Winds northwest through west 10-20 mph gusting 25-35 mph on Friday, becoming variable at 5-15 mph on Saturday, then turning south through southwest on Sunday. Minimum RH is 10-20% on Friday, then a bit drier at 10-15% on Saturday and Sunday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...JJ AVIATION...Meola FIRE WEATHER...Lewandowski For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff  618 FXUS65 KPSR 150515 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 1015 PM MST Tue Apr 14 2026 .UPDATE... Updated Aviation && .KEY MESSAGES... - Weak high pressure will settle over the region through the middle portion of the week providing warming temperatures and dry conditions. - Breezy to locally windy conditions will return for the back half of the work week with elevated Fire Weather conditions focused around the Lower Colorado River Valley - Widespread above normal temperatures are expected by the end of the weekend and the start of next week with readings warming into the low to mid 90s. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Positively titled troughing has begun to push out of the Desert Southwest with the center of this feature now located near the Colorado/Utah border. However, the trailing axis still extends down through much of Arizona, keeping negative height anomalies overhead. This cooler airmass, combined the dry air that moved in behind the Monday night cold front will provide a very pleasant day across the region has temperatures are expected to run around 5 degrees below normal for this point in April. That translates to highs for the lower deserts from the upper 70s to lower 80s, while higher terrain readings will be closer to the upper 60s to lower 70s. Low amplitude ridging will build in the wake of the exiting system, providing at least a modest warm up for Wednesday with highs rebounding back to right around normal. Afternoon readings for lower desert locales will be generally in the middle to upper 80s, with perhaps a few spots, mainly out in SE California seeing a return to the 90s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... By Thursday, a large Pacific weather system is slated to move southeastward through the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin leading to height falls over our region and an increasing pressure gradient. Breezy to locally windy conditions are likely to affect much of the area starting Thursday afternoon and again on Friday as the system moves by just to our north. Advisory level winds may also be possible, particularly across southeast California and the Colorado River Valley. Near normal temperatures Thursday are forecast to dip on Friday as the NBM/WPC shows highs back into a 80- 85 degree range. Stronger ridging is then favored to build across the Western U.S. over the weekend pushing daytime highs to near 90 degrees Saturday and then into a 90-95 degree range for Sunday and next Monday. The weather pattern through at least the first half of next week should support continued dry weather along with at least one more weather system passing by to our north creating breezy to windy conditions. && .AVIATION...Updated at 0515Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No major weather concerns will exist through Wednesday night under clear skies. Confidence is very good that winds in the Phoenix area will obtain an easterly component overnight before shifting back to W/SW early afternoon. Winds across SE California will oscillate generally between S/SE during the day, and W/NW overnight. Extended periods of nearly calm conditions will be common across the entire region. && .FIRE WEATHER... A weather system will exit the region today with only lingering chances for isolated light showers across the eastern Arizona high terrain this morning. Weak high pressure and drying conditions will prevail for the rest of today through Wednesday with overall light winds. MinRHs will dip to between 15-20% today and 10-15% on Wednesday as overnight recoveries become poor to fair starting tonight at 30-50%. Another passing weather system late week will likely bring increased winds and even lower RHs resulting in the potential for elevated fire weather conditions on Thursday and Friday. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM...Kuhlman AVIATION...18 FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman  333 FXUS64 KAMA 150518 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1218 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1027 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 -Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected Wednesday through Friday for the majority of the combined Panhandles. -Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible for the far eastern combined Panhandles on Friday. -Low temperatures Friday and Saturday night may drop to at or below freezing for portions of the northern combined Panhandles. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 1027 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 We continue to watch a few very light rain showers for the far eastern Texas Panhandle out ahead of the main dryline. Overall coverage will diminish through the overnight period. Otherwise, continuing warm and dry conditions for the Panhandles throughout the short term forecast period. Specifics in the fire weather conditions can be read further in the fire weather discussion of the AFD. Overall through for Wednesday, a lull in the main H500 height gradient will relax winds a bit. However, relatively poor RH recovery from the previous night will still result in more widespread elevated fire weather conditions, coupled with slightly cooler temps behind a weak cold front that should stall in the northern Panhandles Wednesday afternoon. High temperatures on Wednesday will range from the lower 70s in the NW Panhandles to upper 80s in the far SE TX Panhandle. Dry and warm conditions are expected to continue for Thursday with the next central Rockies system moving east, this should help steepen the main H500 gradient for the western Panhandles for breezy conditions to return. Otherwise, warm and dry with highs on Thursday ranging from the lower 80s in the western Panhandles to lower 90s in the eastern Panhandles. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1027 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Depending on the timing of surface features coming together, the potential is there for some thunderstorms in the far eastern combined Panhandles for Friday. If areas out ahead of the incoming cold front, along with a slower moving dryline could tap into decent MUCAPE and 0-6k bulk shear values around 40 kts for a brief window Friday afternoon, strong to severe storms for the eastern TX Panhandle cannot be completely ruled out. Most guidance however supports more critical fire weather conditions to return to the majority of the Panhandles on Friday. Behind the main cold front on Friday, much cooler temperatures near to below average for mid April will filter in for the coming weekend. In fact, overnight temperatures may get at or slightly below freezing from Friday night and Saturday night. Make sure to check back for updates to the forecast, especially those starting their growing season activities. Temperatures should return to above average towards the end of the forecast period as southwesterly surface winds return. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1217 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions are expected throughout the 06Z TAF period at all TAF sites. Winds will generally be out of the south and southwest at 10-20 kts. Cloud coverage of few to sct will be expected throughout the TAF period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1027 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Elevated fire weather conditions are expected tomorrow for the majority of the Panhandles with critical fire weather conditions are expected Thursday and Friday. With critical fire weather conditions expected on Thursday and Friday, min RH values will be as low as 7 to 9 percent. With breezy southwesterly winds, max RFTI for both days will range from 5 to 7, with highest values in the western combined Panhandles. ERC percentile will range from the 80th to just over the 90th percentile across all the Panhandles, illustrating the unfortunate setup of abundant fuels for these critical conditions. Will have to watch closely on Friday. If the cold front comes through the Panhandles faster, overall duration of conditions will be much less compared to Thursday. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for TXZ001>014-016>018-317. OK...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for OKZ001>003. && $$ SHORT TERM...29 LONG TERM....29 AVIATION...29  033 FXUS64 KBMX 150520 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1220 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1210 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026 - Fire danger will remain elevated through the week due to recent dryness, low relative humidity values, and increased winds at times. Outdoor burning is highly discouraged. - Near-record high temperatures are expected each day this week with only minimal rain chances in the forecast. Drought conditions will worsen. && .DISCUSSION... (Wednesday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1030 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026 Water vapor imagery reveals another active evening across the country as a series of shortwaves rip across the Plains. Upper ridging in place across the southeast is helping to deflect this activity away from the region. The ridge will begin to retreat to the south as another shortwave peels across the Plains Wednesday into Thursday. This will open a brief window during the day Thursday for a low chance of rain across our NW areas. Confidence is low in this scenario as moisture recovery does not look too impressive. Once again, "drought begets drought". Upper ridging quickly builds back in as the shortwave pushes off the east coast. As we head into the weekend, a stout upper low lifts across the Plains towards the Great Lakes region. An associated cold front will be sent our way, moving into our NW areas Saturday night and clearing our SE counties Sunday afternoon. Our rain chances look a bit more favorable with this system as our latest suite of guidance hints at a healthier plume of moisture pooling across the region. We will continue with a mention of low to moderate (20-60%) rain chances late Saturday through Sunday morning. Much drier air quickly filters back into the region as we close out the weekend and head into the work week. This will likely lead to some increased fire weather concerns early next week. Our warming trend will continue over the next several days. Highs each afternoon will generally climb into the mid 80s. Friday looks to be the warmest day as several locations have a 30-70% chance of exceeding 90F. It's likely that we see some high temp records broken as we close out the work week. To add confidence here, the ECMWF EFI/SOT guidance continues to hint at an anomalous heat event for this time of the year. These warm temps and dry conditions will likely lead to worsening drought conditions over the next week. 95/Castillo && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1210 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026 VFR conditions prevail through the majority of this TAF cycle. The one exception will be a brief period of MVFR vis at TCL around sunrise. Otherwise, light winds overnight will increase to around 10 knots through the morning hours. Wind drop back off after 00z. 16 && .FIRE WEATHER... Elevated fire danger conditions will be a concern daily as we head through the week. MinRHs will drop into the 25-35% range once again this afternoon. Moisture slightly increases Thursday and Friday with minRH vales from 30-40%. However, ongoing drought conditions will contribute to an elevated fire weather threat. Winds will be a bit breezy with gusts from 10-15 MPH. Outside of a low chance of rain across our northwest areas, dry conditions will remain in place through the work week. A cold front is forecast to move through Saturday night, which will bring a low to medium chance for showers and storms. Significantly drier air moves into the region in the wake of the front. We will need to keep a close eye on our fire weather threat as RH values are forecast to fall into the 20-30% range early next week. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1102 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026 Record High Temperatures: April 15: KBHM: 88/1936 KEET: 85/2012 KANB: 89/1972 KTCL: 88/1972 KMGM: 91/1972 April 16: KBHM: 89/1977 KEET: 84/2013 KTCL: 90/1955 KMGM: 90/1925 April 17: KBHM: 90/1955 KEET: 86/2013 KTCL: 92/1955 KMGM: 90/1955 April 18: KBHM: 91/2006 KEET: 90/2006 KANB: 90/1955 KMGM: 91/2006 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 85 56 85 57 / 0 0 10 10 Anniston 85 58 85 60 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 86 61 85 62 / 0 0 10 0 Tuscaloosa 85 60 85 61 / 0 0 10 0 Calera 86 58 86 61 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 86 60 85 62 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 87 58 87 61 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 86 57 86 60 / 0 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...95/Castillo AVIATION...16  026 FXUS66 KHNX 150520 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 1020 PM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A gradual warming and drying trend expected this week with near seasonal to slightly above average temperatures. 2. Another low system brings strong winds and a risk for thunderstorms Thursday within the Sierra Nevada Mountains. 3. An elevated risk for fire starts exists by the end of this week in eastern Kern County due to low humidity and increased winds. && .DISCUSSION... Upper level disturbance continues to exit the region with weak ridging pushes over the area. Yet, while some warming will occur in the short-term, another disturbance will introduce another round of cooling later in the week. Latest ensemble upper-air analysis indicates the trajectory of the next disturbance as an inside-slider. Therefore, while precipitation probabilities will be minimal, the disturbance will introduce significant cooling and strong winds. Afterward, ridging will be seen over the West ahead of a more significant disturbance around the start of next week. Probability of Exceedance (PoE) of reaching 80 degrees across the San Joaquin Valley will remain below 30 percent until Saturday. At which time, PoE of 80 degrees on Saturday will hit 80-90 percent south of Fresno County and 40-60 percent over Merced County. Therefore, while Merced will approach 80 degrees, Bakersfield will reach well into the 80s. The warming trend will continue into Sunday ahead of the next disturbance. Afterward, significant cooling will lower PoE of 80 degrees below 30 percent by the start of the work week and continue toward the middle of the week. Onset of precipitation will start between late Sunday into early Monday. Probability of Measurable Precipitation of accumulating a tenth of a inch (0.10”) will reach 20-30 percent by mid-day on Monday and increase to 30-40 percent by Monday Night. Based on the uncertainty of the ensemble upper-air analysis, will expect the precipitation probabilities to linger over Central California until early Wednesday. Due to the nature of a closed low circulation, the end of the forecast period will remain unsettled with possible precipitation extending through the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions expected across the area for the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Public/Aviation....Molina weather.gov/hanford  883 FXUS65 KGGW 150520 AFDGGW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 1120 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Below normal temperatures Thursday and Friday with gusty NW winds. - Rain tonight with rain changing to snow on Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Surface low pressure over the southern Prairie provinces will remain to our north through this morning. An upper trough dropping into the Pacific Northwest will help to redevelop the surface low over central Montana today. This low will track across eastern Montana tonight with a cold front which will allow colder air to drop into Montana while a moisture stream punches northeast through Montana. Rainfall is expected to begin over the western zones this evening and spread east overnight. Colder air will change the rain to snow over the NW zones Thursday morning, the NE zones Thursday afternoon, and remainder of the forecast area Thursday evening before the precipitation ends Thursday night. The deterministic models were wetter with this latest run and thus slightly higher snow totals. Advisory snowfall is possible across most of Phillips, northern Valley and Daniels counties. System moves out Thursday night with QPF footprints over southern Sask and SE Montana. Temps Thursday night drop into the teens north, low 20s south, about 15 degrees below normal. Surface high will lock in the cold over the area Friday with high temps only reaching the 30s to low 40s, possibly only upper 20s near spots along the Canadian border. Surface high drops to our south while upper ridge moves in for Saturday. Temps should rebound into the 40s east to the 50s west (for highs). The warming trend continues into Sunday with highs mainly in the 60s. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: NBM deviations include: - Increased winds Thursday and Thursday evening - Lowered temps Thursday && .AVIATION... LAST UPDATE: 0430Z FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR today, VFR and MVFR tonight. DISCUSSION: Scattered VFR clouds early this morning with increasing mid and high clouds during the day. The next system moves in tonight with low clouds. KGGW and KOLF will have rain with ceilings lowering to MVFR levels late tonight. KSDY and KGDV will remain VFR tonight with chances for light rain with MVFR ceilings expected after 12z Thursday. WINDS: West, SW or south 5 to 10 knots early this morning becoming west to SW this morning and increasing to 10 to 15 knots this afternoon. Winds will become variable this evening and north to NW 5 to 15 knots overnight. && .GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow  742 FXUS62 KMHX 150522 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 122 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Temperatures have trended warmer through the rest of the week. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Above to well above normal temperatures will prevail through the entire week with the potential for record breaking temperatures each day through Saturday. 2) Worsening drought and fire weather conditions anticipated over much of the upcoming week, with the next meaningful chance of rain not until Sunday && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Persistent upper level ridging and a warm southwest low-level flow regime will continue to strongly favor well above normal temperatures through the remainder of the week. Each day will carry at least some potential for record- tying or record-breaking temperatures. For a little context, one of our forecast aids (the ECMWF's Extreme Forecast Index -or- EFI) continues to show a very strong signal for a stretch of highly anomalous temperatures, with a focus from Wednesday through Saturday. While above normal temperatures seem to be a foregone conclusion, there may be some subtle, but important, features that could impact just how hot each day gets. One is cloudcover. The upper level ridge will flatten some today and tomorrow, which may allow convective debris clouds from the Plains to overspread the Carolinas. Like yesterday, that could hold temps down some, preventing them from reaching the full potential of the low-level thicknesses present. By Thursday, the ridge is forecast to amplify again, with more of a southwest flow aloft redeveloping. This suggests that the warmest day of the week may be Thursday if that southwest flow can divert high level clouds away from the area. Cloudcover will be a caveat again on Friday as a shortwave moves through aloft. This could put a small dent in temps, and may even allow a very low risk of a few isolated showers. This scenario appears unlikely, but is something we'll be monitoring in guidance through the week. KEY MESSAGE 2...Drought conditions are expected to persist through the foreseeable future with no rain in the forecast until Sunday. Even then, rainfall amounts on Sunday currently look to be less than a half an inch. The forecast area remains in a Severe Drought (D2), with some pockets of Extreme Drought (D3) emerging over the northern NC coastal plain. Precipitation deficits over the last 60 days range from 3-6 inches, which will only increase in the upcoming rain-free week. Growing vegetation and leaf out will only increase the strain on ground water in the coming weeks. While the forecast currently has conditions not meeting criteria for fire danger statements, the very dry conditions will continue to bring an elevated threat for wildfires. It is also worth noting that breezy afternoon/evening winds will be paired with relative humidities in the 30-40% range. Again, this does not meet Fire Danger Statement criteria, but given the increased sensitivities, it is worth a mention. The NCFS continues a statewide burn ban until further notice. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Primarily a persistence forecast for aviation interests this morning as pattern remains static from yesterday. High pressure offshore anchored offshore will continue to encourage southwesterly winds during the overnight hours, which will discourage any widespread fog formation. Like the past few evenings, localized areas of decoupling could see some shallow and brief visibility restrictions most likely between 10-12z. Winds will primarily be out of the SW with gusts around 15-20 kt beginning mid to late morning as deeper mixing ensues. An active sea breeze bringing a shift to Sly winds as it pushes inland through the afternoon and early evening hours, with a brief window of enhanced gusts near 20 kt immediately behind the boundary. Outlook: Pred VFR conditions expected through the period with a more summertime pattern persisting through the week. Stronger winds likely in the coming days with tightening thermal gradient, most likely felt in the afternoons and evenings. An approaching front on Sunday will likely bring the strongest winds of the period and renewed shower and thunderstorm chances. && .MARINE... A pattern more typical of summer continues, with a daily chance of 20-25 kt winds over waters favored in southwest flow where the thermal gradient is the strongest. This includes the Pamlico Sound and nearby rivers and sounds. The hottest days with the strongest thermal gradient may necessitate short-fused Small Craft Advisories, but the frequency and coverage of 25 kt gusts in the forecast is too slim for any headlines at this time. For the coastal waters, seas of 2-4 ft will be common through mid-week. Seas may approach 5 ft at times late in the week, especially for the waters off of Cape Hatteras and Core Banks. Outlook: A cold front is forecast to move through area waters on Sunday. Ahead of the front, there should be an increased risk of 25 kt winds, with an even higher chance behind the front late Sunday into Monday. Of note, some of the stronger guidance suggests the potential for gale-force winds behind the front. Stay tuned for updates on this frontal passage and the potential marine impacts late in the weekend into early next week. && .CLIMATE... Record High temps for 4/14 (Tuesday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 89/1948 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 80/1994 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 93/1922 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 80/1996 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 99/1930 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 88/1977 (NCA ASOS) Record High temps for 4/15 (Wednesday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 94/1972 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 84/1922 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 96/1922 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 80/1964 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 92/1941 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 93/2006 (NCA ASOS) Record High temps for 4/16 (Thursday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 92/1972 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 78/1994 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 92/1972 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 82/2006 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 92/2006 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 91/1972 (NCA ASOS) Record High temps for 4/17 (Friday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 91/1976 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 83/2012 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 92/1972 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 82/1976 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 91/1972 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 91/2006 (NCA ASOS) && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RM/OJC AVIATION...MS MARINE...OJC  051 FXUS63 KMQT 150522 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 122 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread fog, dense at times, and drizzle is expected to develop tonight as temperatures cool and weak, moist flow remains in place. - The threat for flooding continues through the week due to snowmelt and potential showers and thunderstorms. A Flood Watch is in effect for the entire U.P., ending Wednesday morning over the far west and Thursday night elsewhere. - A prolonged period of well above freezing temperatures and higher dewpoints will continue to bring increased snowmelt, especially Thursday into Friday. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday night but the main contributor for potential flooding over the next few days will be snowmelt. - Showers and Thunderstorms are expected with a cold front Friday night into Saturday early morning. This will bring the potential for heavier rainfall, there is a 10-30% chance for 1" or more of rainfall. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 350 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 This afternoon an expansive area of low clouds was over the U.P. with upslope flow bringing fog into the Keweenaw. Winds had turned southerly bringing warmer, moist air northwards into northern WI, approaching the far western U.P. Between the mess of low, mid and upper level clouds there were a few breaks starting and wouldn't be surprised for locations closer to the MI/WI state line to see some sunshine this afternoon. Temperatures were in the 40s to low 50s across the U.P. but still expecting the south and west to rise into the 60s by late afternoon or early evening. The warmest air was over central and southern WI where a warm front was stalled. Fog and drizzle this morning had diminished with the exception of the Keweenaw. Rivers were still slowly rising over the central and eastern U.P. but a trend downwards was starting in the far west where much of the snowpack has eroded. Though most of the snowpack was also gone in the south-central heavy rainfall over the last several days continued to cause flooding. The warm front will move very little through Wednesday with the U.P. remaining on the cooler side of the boundary. The biggest impacts to the weather through tomorrow will continue to be warmer temperatures and higher dew points leading to increased snowmelt, with potential flooding of river, small streams, creeks and low lying areas. With the low level moisture and weak flow expect that fog, dense at times, will become widespread tonight along with drizzle as the saturated layer reaches upwards of 3 kft. There will be elevated instability over the area and a few showers, possibly a thunderstorm far south, could get kicked off as a shortwave and upper level jet move across the region tonight. However, the better dynamics will be further south in WI so not expecting strong or severe thunderstorms tonight. Rainfall amounts should generally be light with any showers that do form. Wednesday will start out foggy with drizzle but expect conditions to improve through the day, we could even see a rare appearance of the sun over the central and west during the afternoon. Much like today temperatures will vary greatly across the U.P, with low 40s in the far north to the low 60s south. A few showers are possible in the afternoon as a shortwave approaches the area. The chance for showers will increase Wednesday night, especially over the south and east as the shortwave passes through the area. Precip amounts look to be less than a quarter of an inch though cant rule out locally higher amounts should thunderstorms form in the south and east. A warmer stretch is expected for Thursday into Friday as a deep trough moves into the western U.S. Easterly winds will develop on Thursday, becoming southerly by Friday. This will bring the potential for some of the warmest temperatures thus far this spring, reaching into the 70s over the west (90% chance for temperatures over 70). The strengthening southerly winds, warm temperatures and higher dew points will accelerate the melting of the snowpack further with continued flooding concerns. More uncertainly exists for the weekend as the low pressure moves east along or north of Lake Superior. Slower solutions keep warmer air in the U.P. well into Saturday while faster solutions would bring a front through and much cooler temperatures by Saturday morning. Another round of rain and thunderstorms is likely to accompany the front. Behind the front it will be much cooler with snow showers possible Saturday night into Sunday. Some guidance still suggests a wet snowfall for the western U.P. NBM probabilities for 2" or more of wet snow in the west are around 20-40% Saturday night into Sunday. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 121 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Widespread LIFR/VLIFR conditions at all TAF sites well into the morning as widespread dense fog sets up over the region due to ample low level moisture and weak winds. Condtions lift to mvfr this afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 350 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Light, stable flow is expected through Thursday with a weak pressure gradient over the area. Dense fog is expected to expand tonight over much of the lake and continue into Wednesday morning. There is low confidence in how quickly the fog will erode on Wednesday. Southerly winds will develop and increase on Friday ahead of a deepening low pressure, 30% chance for gales over the eastern lake. This low will push through over the weekend bringing a cold front and the potential for northwesterly gales (around 50% chance Saturday night into Sunday). && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 350 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 NOHRSC analysis showed the the snowpack had eroded over much of the southern and far western U.P. Over the north and east several inches to over a foot of SWE remained, greatest in the higher terrain. Snowmelt will continue through the week and accelerate late in the week as a warm, moist airmass moves into the U.P. Additional rain chances continue, mainly Wednesday night and Friday night. Rainfall Wednesday night will likely be less than a quarter inch but heavier rainfall is possible for Friday night. NBM has a 10-30% chance for an inch of more of rainfall Friday night. Colder weather is expected for Saturday night and Sunday which should slow the melt of any remaining snow. Flooding in the wake of snowmelt and multiple heavy rain events continued over the south-central U.P. today. Though the snowpack is mostly gone in the south-central; swamps, creeks, low lying areas and rivers remain full/high and additional showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday night. This could exacerbate the ongoing flooding though widespread heavy rainfall is not expected. For the north and east snowmelt and potential rainfall will continue the flooding threat though the week with the analysis and observations showing over a foot of SWE in the higher terrain. Rivers in the far western U.P. were beginning to fall and anticipate that the Flood Watch will be able to expire Wednesday morning. Will be extending the Flood Watch for all but the far western U.P. until Thursday night. This may need to be extended further in time with future updates as even warmer temperatures and higher dew points, along with increasing winds are expected for Thursday and Friday. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Flood Watch through late Thursday night for MIZ001-003>007- 010>014-084-085. Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ this morning for MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085. Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ this morning for MIZ002- 009. Lake Superior... Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning for LSZ162-240>251-263>267. Lake Michigan... Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for LMZ248-250. && $$ DISCUSSION...NL AVIATION...TDUD MARINE...NL HYDROLOGY...  696 FXUS65 KABQ 150523 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1123 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1111 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Hazardous crosswinds will create difficult travel for large and high-profile vehicles again Thursday and Friday mainly across eastern NM. - Critical fire weather conditions return Thursday to northeastern and east-central NM and a majority of the state Friday, increasing the threat of rapid fire spread from any new spark. - A hard freeze is forecast Friday night into Saturday morning across portions of central, western and northern NM. Take precautions to protect early blooming plants. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 122 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Strong southwesterly winds will slowly decrease this evening across northern and central New Mexico. As the parent storm system slides eastward across Colorado through the overnight hours, an associated cold front will bring cooler temperatures to NM. On average, low temperatures will be around 10 degrees cooler than last night. In addition to mountain areas and common colder locations across west central NM, a few other lower elevation areas, including Farmington, the Santa Fe Metro, and Moriarty will see temperatures fall below freezing for an hour or two early Wednesday morning. A trailing trough will continue to cross the state on Wednesday. Though this will pass with little fanfare, breezy westerly winds will return to east central NM with gusts near 25 or 30 mph. High temperatures will be near to just shy of normal. Winds will taper off Wednesday evening. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 122 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Flow will back to the southwest on Thursday in advance of an strong upper level trough diving southward toward UT. H7 flow will increase to between 25 and 30kt by the late afternoon hours and H5 flow will only be marginally stronger. Nonetheless, strong mixing and a deepening lee side trough will allow surface winds to increase areawide with gusts between 25 and 40 mph. High temps will warm 5 to 10 degrees areawide. On Friday, the system will cross the central and northern Rockies with the base of the trough crossing northern NM. The NAM appears to be the outlier showing a slower progression. H7 winds will increase to between 40 and 50kt while a surface low deepens near the CO/OK/NM border. This will bring strong winds to much of the area once again, with the strongest winds across north central and northeast NM. Additionally, a Pacific cold front will race from west to east, and the strongest gusts of the day are most likely to occur with the frontal passage. Temperatures will cool quickly behind the front. Areas across NW NM will be upwards of 20 degrees cooler on Friday than on Thursday. Areas of blowing dust may develop, especially in areas that have received little rainfall as of late. After the winds decrease Friday evening, excellent radiational cooling will allow temperatures to drop like a rock. A hard freeze (<=28 degrees) is on tap for much of northern and western NM, plus areas around Moriarty and Clines Corners. This would be a damaging freeze for any budding or blooming plants. However, even areas across the Albuquerque Metro will see low temperatures fall near or just below the freezing mark. Quieter conditions with weak ridging will be the rule on Saturday. Surface winds will veer around to the southeast and south, slowly drawing up Gulf moisture Saturday night into Sunday. At least for now, nothing more than sprinkles is expected for Sunday. Instead, southerly winds will increase Sunday and breezy to windy conditions are expected across much of eastern NM during the afternoon. Though the upper level pattern is uncertain on Monday, it appears that low level moisture will continue to creep in from the south, though storms still look to be scarce. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1111 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Strong southwesterly winds have tapered off this evening with lighter prevailing winds forecast tonight into Wednesday morning. A breezy northerly drainage wind is forecast at KSAF as one exception to this rule. Breezy southwesterly to westerly winds return Wednesday afternoon. Otherwise, VFR prevails thru the TAF period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 122 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Critical fire weather conditions will persist through early evening across eastern NM. Lighter winds are expected on Wednesday, though locally critical conditions remain on tap for the Clines Corners area. Critical fire weather conditions will return for Thursday and Friday. A dry slot will cross the state on Thursday, and strong mixing will bring the drier air as well as stronger winds to the surface. Several hours of single digit RH, generally between 5 and 10 hours, are expected across all but the high terrain. Southwest winds will not be as strong as today, but will be above critical thresholds, especially across eastern NM. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for all of northeast and east central NM for Thursday afternoon and evening. Wind and RH thresholds are also being met near Gallup/western portions of Zone 105, but this area just received wetting rainfall and ERC values are quite marginal, so have held off on a watch. Winds will turn more westerly and northwesterly on Friday and increase as the base of an upper level trough crosses northern NM. An associated cold front will also cross the state, dropping temperatures and inching RH values upward. Critical fire weather conditions will be favored across eastern NM, but a few hours of critical conditions will also impact portions of central and western NM. Quieter conditions on Saturday, but critical conditions look to return to northeast NM on Sunday as strong southerly winds return. Less confidence exists for Monday as moisture will be increasing, but near- critical conditions are not out of the question for northeast NM. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 33 65 35 72 / 5 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 19 60 22 67 / 5 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 28 60 31 68 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 23 63 25 68 / 5 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 28 60 31 67 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 25 64 28 70 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 29 61 30 68 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 36 65 39 71 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 31 60 34 67 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 26 69 28 71 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 31 73 34 75 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 20 54 25 61 / 0 5 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 35 60 39 66 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 31 62 35 67 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 28 58 33 63 / 0 5 0 0 Red River....................... 23 49 28 54 / 0 5 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 18 55 21 61 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 23 62 26 68 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 29 61 32 67 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 32 68 33 74 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 35 62 39 70 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 33 65 35 73 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 42 68 44 74 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 39 70 41 77 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 38 73 39 80 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 41 70 42 77 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 35 73 34 79 / 5 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 39 71 40 77 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 34 72 34 79 / 5 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 39 71 40 78 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 36 72 36 79 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 40 65 42 73 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 40 71 41 77 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 40 75 40 80 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 36 63 39 69 / 5 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 37 64 39 70 / 5 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 33 65 34 71 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 29 66 27 73 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 33 61 35 68 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 33 65 35 71 / 5 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 35 65 36 70 / 5 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 41 68 42 73 / 5 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 38 61 40 66 / 5 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 29 61 31 71 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 28 65 29 74 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 30 68 29 77 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 31 64 34 70 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 39 69 41 79 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 35 68 36 75 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 38 76 39 84 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 39 71 38 80 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 42 77 42 85 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 46 77 44 82 / 10 0 0 0 Portales........................ 46 78 42 83 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 41 76 39 83 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 47 80 43 86 / 5 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 41 73 42 79 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 38 71 38 75 / 5 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for NMZ104-123-125-126. && $$ SHORT TERM...34 LONG TERM....34 AVIATION...24  091 FXUS66 KMFR 150524 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1024 PM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .UPDATE...Aviation Discussion updated. && .DISCUSSION.../Issued 952 PM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026/ DISCUSSION...The cold front will bring a frost and freeze risk to the area Wednesday night and Thursday night. Thursday night's temperatures are forecast to be the coldest of the two, and portions of the Klamath River Valley and Josephine County near the Illinois Valley have a 55-70% chance to see 32 degrees of lower that night. With that, a Freeze Watch has been issued. More of the Rogue Valley has a near 100% probability of seeing at least 36 degrees Thursday night, so we will analyze for the need of advisories in the coming days. -Hermansen && .AVIATION (06Z TAFs)... A front will move across the area tonight and Wednesday. This will result in widespread precipitation through Wednesday afternoon. As a result, expect widespread MVFR conditions to develop. Areas of IFR ceilings and visibilities are expected along the coast late tonight and early Wednesday morning. Probabilities were not high enough to include IFR (ceilings/visibilities) for inland sites at this time, but there is an 8%-18% chance for IFR conditions inland. Widespread mountain obscurations are expected tonight through Wednesday. Conditions will gradually improve becoming a mix of MVFR and VFR late Wednesday afternoon and evening. && MARINE...Updated 700 PM PDT Tuesday, April 14, 2026...A front will bring rain, strong winds, and steep seas through Wednesday morning. Localized areas of very steep and hazardous seas are briefly possible north of Coos Bay tonight. Winds trend lower but steep seas persist Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. Conditions improve late Thursday, but a weak thermal trough may bring gusty northerly winds to the waters south of Cape Blanco late Thursday into Friday. Another active system may bring additional rainfall and steep seas this weekend. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1204 PM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026/ DISCUSSION...A shortwave ridge passing over northern California and southern Oregon will produce calm, mostly clear weather for the rest of today. Daytime highs will warm slightly from Monday's temperatures, but clouds will steadily increase across the area as the next system approaches. As this cold front approaches, some coastal showers will begin to move into the area this evening, which we can already see in Radar imagery offshore this afternoon. More widespread rainfall is expected on Wednesday. Coastal cities look to see 1 to 1.5 inches of rainfall, while coastal ranges could see around 2 inches. Rainfall in the Umpqua Valley is forecast to be between 0.75 and 1 inch, with other valleys and basins seeing lower amounts through Wednesday. With snow levels expected to hover at 4500-5500 feet from the front's arrival through Wednesday morning, winter impacts look to be limited to the Cascades. A Winter Weather Advisory is in place for areas near and north of Crater Lake and at elevations above 5000 feet from Wednesday morning through Thursday morning, given that snowfall in this area is expected to make travel hazardous. Snowfall amounts of 12 to 16 inches are forecast over the Cascades on Wednesday. Current SPC guidance shows around a 90 percent chance for snowfall rates of 1 inch per hour Wednesday morning into early in the afternoon, and 40 to 50 percent chance for a brief period of 2 inches per hour late in the morning. Also, gusty winds are expected over elevated terrain and the usual exposed areas on Wednesday, especially east of the Cascades. With mid-level model winds approaching 55 kts, gusts along Winter Rim/Summer Lake and the Warner Mountains could reach up to 55 mph in that late Wednesday morning-early afternoon timeframe. Gusts of 30-40 mph are expected to be more widespread across east side areas. Activity across the area eases on Wednesday evening, but a cold air mass looks to bring impactful overnight low temperatures for west side valleys. The Rogue, Applegate, Illinois, and western Klamath County valleys are all forecast to see lows from the mid 20s to low 30s on these nights. These temperatures would bring chances of frost or freezing conditions. East of the Cascades, overnight lows look to be in the mid teens to low 20s. Chilly nights aside, Thursday looks to be a quieter day. While snow levels drop to 1500-2000 feet in the morning, declining activity will minimize the chance of impactful winter conditions at lower elevations. Another shortwave ridge looks to bring warmer temperatures and dry conditions on Friday and Saturday. Long-term deterministic imagery is showing more agreement of a low pressure system approaching the area from the northwest late this weekend into early next week, bringing periods of southwest or southerly flow. While details are still coarse, the tight pressure gradients aloft in imagery tend to indicate stronger winds, and southerly flow patterns tend to deliver moderate to heavy precipitation to the Mount Shasta area and coastal terrain. Details remain coarse for this timeframe, so stay tuned for additional details on continuing active weather. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for ORZ024. Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Wednesday for ORZ030-031. Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ027. CA...Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for CAZ080. Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ085. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Thursday for PZZ350-356-370-376. && $$  697 FXUS63 KAPX 150525 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 125 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Ongoing flooding may worsen with additional rain and storms this evening and tonight. Heaviest rain expected south of M-72, especially along/south of M-55 where 1"+ is possible. - Strong to severe storms are possible again this evening into tonight. Primary hazards will be damaging winds and large hail. - Additional rounds of rain and mild temperatures through this week before turning cold late this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 400 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Pattern Synopsis: Subtle shortwave/jet max embedded in southwest mid/upper-level flow will punch overhead this evening and tonight. At the surface, a stationary boundary draped across the middle of the state and back across portions of the Midwest will provide the focus for thunderstorms over the next several hours. Little substantial airmass change should allow these boundaries to hang across the area into Thursday before eventually working south. Ridging looks to slide overhead for a brief time Friday before strong troughing digs across the central CONUS and Great Lakes this weekend. Forecast Details: Primary concern will be another expected round of thunderstorms later this evening and early tonight. Current confidence is that storms will fire much further upstream across parts of the Midwest this afternoon and eventually work east into Michigan -- similar to last night. That said, expectation is that strongest storms and heaviest rainfall will track slightly further south than what was observed last night. Highest threat area for strong storms and associated heavy rainfall will be south of M-72, and specifically along and south of M-55. This corridor has the potential to see additional rainfall totals of 1"+ overnight. Rainfall amounts taper off from south to north, ranging from 0.25"-0.5" near M-72 to around 0.10" across the Tip of the Mitt. Locally higher amounts are possible with any stray storms that track across this area. Any additional rainfall tonight will only exacerbate ongoing flooding across northern Michigan -- the magnitude and widespread nature of which is particularly impressive for the area. Storms this evening will also carry the potential of producing severe weather. The most likely corridor of potential strong/severe storms will also be along/south of M-72 between 8 PM and 1 AM Wednesday. The primary concerns with any strong storms this evening on top of additional flooding will be damaging winds and large hail. Storm chances look to move out a few hours after midnight. After tonight, patchy dense fog will be possible Wednesday morning again along with isolated light rain chances through most of the day before much better rain/storm chances return again late Wednesday into Thursday. A break in rain chances is anticipated on Friday with aforementioned ridging before more showers and storms are expected again on Saturday. Unfortunately for those across impacted flood areas, additional rain chances will likely only prolong impacts over the next several days as water levels try to come down. Now for the exciting part -- after a stretch of mild temperatures in the 60s and 70s, snow chances make a triumphant return on Sunday as temperatures plunge back into the 20s and 30s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 118 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Expect areas of BR/FG tonight into Wednesday morning with areas of IFR to LIFR CIGs. VSBYs expected to decrease across all terminals, with ~1/2 SM or potentially lower at times for some. VSBYs increase during the day with a few terminals seeing VSBYs slowly improve through the day on Wednesday. Chance for a few -SHRA/VCSH for KMBL up towards KAPN. Generally light winds are expected. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Flood Watch through late Thursday night for MIZ016>018-020>036- 041-042-086>088-095-096-099. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DJC AVIATION...JLD  985 FXUS64 KLIX 150526 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1226 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1204 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Sun and temperature related health risks will be the primary concern with sunny skies and warm temperatures on tap through much of the week. Make sure to use sunscreen and drink plenty of water if you intend to be outside enjoying activities like sports and festivals. - Moderate to dense fog development is possible this morning particularly over inland locations. Light to moderate fog could also occur near water bodies and inland locations for the remainder of the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Saturday) Issued at 1204 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Strong stacked high will remain over the area in the short term. This will keep precip chances quite low through Saturday. That is not to say there is no chance of rain, as there will be a few stray sh/ts that could develop through that time period. But, it won't be more than isolated. There is a cold front that will be makings its way toward the area and we should see this rapidly moving SE by Fri evening. Saturday afternoon, we should see this front knocking on our door. There should be a good bit of sh/ts activity along this front as well before it gets to us. The Bermuda Highs ridge into the deep south will not want to give much room for the new high moving in behind this front causing the high behind the front to bridge the front eventually. This will cause the sh/ts along this front to decay and eventually dissipate. When this occurs will be a big deal as it will tell us if we get some rainfall or not over the weekend. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 1204 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 The upper ridge that has been controlling the weather across the local area recently will be suppressed southward over the Gulf briefly as a strong shortwave trough moves through the middle and upper Mississippi River Valley on Saturday and Sunday. This trough will push a cold front through south Mississippi and southeast Louisiana Saturday night into Sunday morning. The front should make it well into the Gulf by Sunday night and Monday before ridging builds back into the area from the west by the middle and end of next week. That will turn the winds back out of the south by Tuesday or Wednesday. While precipitable water values get up into the 1.5 to 1.6 inch range (90+ percentile) across northern portions of the area (north of Interstate 10/12) Saturday night and early Sunday morning, the best forcing will be well to the north of the area. That will probably result in scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms as the front moves through, but severe thunderstorm and heavy rainfall probabilities look to be low as of now. The most likely result is that southwest Mississippi may see one half inch of rain or so and areas south of that see much less. Much of the area could really use that rain, and if it doesn't materialize Saturday night, we could be looking at fire weather issues Sunday into Tuesday. Current guidance shows minimum relative humidity values around 35 percent Sunday afternoon and below 30 percent Monday afternoon. Saturday night's frontal passage will bring cooler and drier air to the area, at least for a few days. High temperatures that will probably be in the mid or upper 80s Saturday, may not make it much past 70 on Sunday, especially if we don't lose the clouds in the afternoon. Highs should rebound to the mid and upper 70s Monday and Tuesday, but that's where highs should be in late April. Overnight lows will be in the 50s Sunday morning. Monday morning lows will depend on cloud cover, as global models indicate lows in the 40s for most of the area, but NBM deterministic says around 50. Normal lows for late April should be in the middle and upper 50s. (RW) && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1204 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR for most terminals expected today with a few mainly western sites seeing MVFR cigs for short durations. Tonight will be a better chance at getting MVFR to IFR cigs that will be in and out for most terminals over the eastern half of the area. && .MARINE... Issued at 1204 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Strong surface high pressure from the northeast gulf into the Atlantic continues to produce a light to moderate easterly to southeasterly fetch at 10 to 15 kt over the northern Gulf. Onshore flow will continue through at least Saturday with the potential for offshore flow from a cold front coming on Sunday into early next week where more hazardous marine conditions may develop leading to cautionary headlines or even Small Craft Advisories. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TE LONG TERM....TE AVIATION...RW MARINE...TE  732 FXUS62 KRAH 150526 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 126 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 815 PM Tuesday... * NCFS has requested Increased Fire Danger for all of cntl NC through at least Thu, but statements (SPS) will only highlight the following day (Wed). && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 245 PM Tuesday... 1) Dry fuels combined with lower humidity and near record heat will promote fire weather concerns through the weekend. 2) An early-season heat wave will result in near record high temperatures from Wednesday through Saturday. 3) A late-weekend pattern transition is expected with a cold frontal passage. Low-end rain chances are expected on Sunday, followed by much cooler temperatures early next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 245 PM Tuesday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry fuels combined with lower humidity and near record heat will promote fire weather concerns through the weekend. The anomalous mid-level ridge will amplify along the eastern seaboard through the end of the week. Associated subsidence over the southeast will promote continued dry conditions at least through Saturday. Precipitation as a percentage of normal over the past 30 days is as low as 5 to 25% for portions of our area worsening the elevated drought conditions. As such, fuels have been anomalously dry for some time. Winds will remain light Wednesday through Saturday, but with temperatures increasing into the lower to mid 90s, along with fairly deep mixing heights (and decreasing PWAT), RH should dip into the mid to upper 20 percent range each afternoon. A little bump in gustiness may be possible Thursday afternoon with the passage of a dry short-wave and again on Sunday ahead of and behind a cold front. Overall though, meteorological conditions (combined RH and wind) should largely remain sub-IFD criteria. However, given persistent dry fuels, near record temps, and poor overnight recovery for much of central NC, the NC Forest Service may request additional IFDs for portions of central NC to help with messaging their current state- wide burn ban. KEY MESSAGE 2... An early-season heat wave will result in near record high temperatures from Wednesday through Saturday. Anomalously strong subtropical ridging will persist over the Southeast US for much of the period from Wednesday through Saturday, other than a brief dry shortwave passage on Friday. At the surface, a Bermuda High will bring warm southwesterly flow to central NC during this time. 1000-850 mb thicknesses are modeled to be around the 95th percentile for this time of year, and forecast maximum and minimum temperatures get close to or reach record highs each day. Mostly lower-90s for highs and lower-to-mid-60s for lows are expected, which is around 15-20 degrees above normal. Can't rule out some mid-90s on Saturday, which looks to be the hottest day. For reference, this would get close to the hottest temperatures ever recorded any day in the month of April. See the climate section below for more details. Fortunately, humidity looks tolerable, with dew points mostly bottoming out in the lower-to-mid-50s each day, perhaps even some 40s especially in the west. So heat indices will be about 2-4 degrees cooler than the actual air temperatures each day. Still, several days of highs in the lower-90s could result in heat stress for sensitive individuals and those working and exercising outdoors. KEY MESSAGE 3... A late-weekend pattern transition is expected with a cold frontal passage. Low-end rain chances are expected on Sunday, followed by much cooler temperatures early next week. A broad mid/upper trough will advance into the Eastern US from the Plains this weekend. An associated cold front will move across central NC on Sunday. This may result in showers and isolated storms, but at this time both the GFS and ECMWF and most of their ensembles move it through too early in the day for much instability to develop (a few hundred J/kg of CAPE at most). This combined with the best forcing and moisture from the trough focused to our north mean rainfall amounts look light, with ensemble means only a tenth of an inch or less. So there will be very little if any relief from the drought. It will turn significantly cooler on Monday and Tuesday with below-normal temperatures (highs mainly in the upper-60s to lower-70s, lows in the 40s). && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... As of 126 AM Wednesday... Sub-tropical high pressure extending across the South Atlantic states will favor a high probability of VFR conditions and SSW surface winds that will strengthen and become occasionally gusty with daytime heating again today (10-20kt). Outlook: Sub-tropical high pressure will favor warm, dry, and VFR conditions in cntl NC through Sat. Light, probably VFR rain will be possible along and behind a cold front that will move across cntl NC early Sunday. && .CLIMATE... All-Time Records for April KGSO: 95 on 4/28/1915 KRDU: 95 on 4/23/1980 and 4/28/1896 KFAY: 96 on 4/12/1930 Record High Temperatures: April 15: KGSO: 90/2006 KRDU: 92/1941 KFAY: 95/2006 April 16: KGSO: 88/2002 KRDU: 92/1941 KFAY: 94/2006 April 17: KGSO: 90/1967 KRDU: 93/1896 KFAY: 92/1941 April 18: KGSO: 90/1976 KRDU: 95/1896 KFAY: 93/1941 April 19: KFAY: 94/1941 Record High Minimum Temperatures: April 15: KGSO: 65/2006 KRDU: 64/1993 April 16: KGSO: 66/2006 KRDU: 64/1912 KFAY: 69/1934 April 17: KGSO: 63/2002 KRDU: 67/1896 KFAY: 66/1921 April 18: KGSO: 66/1909 KRDU: 63/1941 KFAY: 67/2002 April 19: KRDU: 67/1896 KFAY: 67/2002 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Luchetti/Danco/Badgett AVIATION...Badgett/MWS CLIMATE...rah  737 FXUS62 KFFC 150527 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 127 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New 06Z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 124 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Fire weather concerns will persist this week given the ongoing very dry and warm conditions. - Temperatures will remain well above normal through Saturday. Some daily record highs may be broken. - Appreciable rainfall is very unlikely through this coming weekend, so worsening drought conditions are expected. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 223 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Expansive ridging remains in place through midweek, keeping things high and dry. Temperatures will remain well above normal, and forecast highs are at or within a couple of degrees of daily record highs at the four main climate sites (ATL, AHN, MCN, CSG) on Wednesday. Fire danger continues to be a concern, discussed further in the "Fire Weather" section below... && .LONG TERM... (Thursday morning through next Monday) Issued at 223 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Staying Warm, and Dry for Most through Saturday: The extended periods begin right where the short term leaves off with dry and warm conditions continuing. With zero precip chances Thu, Fri, and Sat, temps expected to rise well above seasonal norms with highs in the middle 80s to middle 90s across north and central GA. The models are showing the ridge over the region weakening Sat as a weak frontal boundary nears NW GA Sat night. the biggest issue is the atmosphere is extremely dry ahead of this front so as it pushes into GA it dries out and most of the area will only see increased cloud cover. Portions of NW GA will see some light showers Sat night into Sun morning but only expecting 0.1" to 0.25" total for area North and West of Carrollton, to Atlanta, to Gainesville line. Unfortunately, even with this frontal boundary moving through it is very likely not going to support the coverage and amount of rainfall necessary to put a dent in the Severe (D2) to Extreme Drought (D3) that covers much of the CWA. The front is expected to move south and east of the area Sun night bringing in a cooler airmass for the beginning of next week. Temps Mon morning will be down into the 40s with highs Mon mainly in the 70s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 124 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions will persist through the period, with FEW cu between 050-070 anticipated in the afternoon. Winds will be light and variable through the early morning, becoming SW at 4-8 kts by 15Z. Winds will diminish after sunset, becoming light and variable once again after 01-02Z. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... High confidence on all elements. King && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 61 87 62 90 / 0 0 0 0 Atlanta 63 86 64 90 / 0 0 0 0 Blairsville 56 83 57 85 / 0 0 10 10 Cartersville 59 87 60 90 / 0 0 0 10 Columbus 59 87 60 90 / 0 0 0 0 Gainesville 62 85 63 88 / 0 0 0 0 Macon 60 88 61 90 / 0 0 0 0 Rome 59 87 60 90 / 0 10 10 10 Peachtree City 58 86 59 90 / 0 0 0 0 Vidalia 61 91 62 92 / 0 0 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...King  303 FXUS64 KHUN 150527 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1227 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1040 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Low relative humidity values, dry fuels, and gusty winds will result in elevated fire weather conditions on Wednesday. - There are low to medium chances (20-50%) of showers and storms on Thursday. - Medium chances (40-60%) of showers and storms return on Saturday. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of Tonight and Wednesday) Issued at 1040 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Persistent upper level ridging over the Southeast and surface high pressure over the Deep South will maintain a tranquil forecast with no rain through Wednesday afternoon. Some upper level clouds will continue to stream overhead tonight, but it will still be a bit too dry for much fog to form. It'll also be fairly warm thanks to the aforementioned pattern, as lows only drop into the mid 50s to lower 60s later tonight. Another day of dry weather and breezy conditions is then on tap for Wednesday. Hi-Res guidance indicates that dew points should dip into the 40s/50s (lowest over NE AL) by the afternoon, resulting in minimum relative humidity values in the lower 30 percent range. Expect sustained south/southwest winds around 10 mph with gusts up to around 20 mph through the day as well. Although not quite meeting Red Flag criteria, elevated fire weather will continue to be a concern. Please be cautious as any fires that develop will likely spread more rapidly than expected! In addition, it will be fairly warm as forecast highs top out in the mid 80s for most locations. For context, the record highs for April 15th are 88 degrees in Huntsville and 89 degrees in Muscle Shoals (both set in 2006). Furthermore, our forecast highs are at least ten degrees above normal for this time of year. Therefore, although it's not "summertime heat", it will be warm for this time of year. Make sure to drink plenty of water and take breaks in the shade if you are outside for long periods of time! && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday Night through Friday Night) Issued at 1040 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Upper level ridging begins to push eastward later on Wednesday as a shortwave approaches the Midwest. This feature will traverse the upper Ohio Valley through the day on Thursday, with another shortwave forming and moving over the mid-Mississippi River Valley Thursday evening. This second shortwave will eventually progress over the lower Ohio Valley and portions of the Tennessee Valley Thursday night into Friday. Upper ridging will then develop over the Southeast quickly in the wake of these shortwaves on Friday. Ultimately, what this means for sensible weather for our local area is a low to medium chance (20-50%) of showers and storms Thursday afternoon and evening, with the highest chances over NW AL. However, as we've been alluding to over the past couple of days, not much rainfall is expected (less than a quarter of an inch). Additionally, while there will be the presence of a 80-90 knot upper jet aloft Thursday afternoon and evening as well as ample bulk shear and some instability, there appears to be a decent cap (CIN) over our area. Therefore, anticipating any storms that develop to be sub-severe. Dry weather (no rain) will then return for Friday. Perhaps the bigger concern will be the increasing temperatures that are forecast to reach the upper 80s to around 90 degrees on Friday. These forecast highs will flirt with record highs for April 17th (90 degrees for Huntsville, 92 degrees for Muscle Shoals; both in 2006). It'll also be warm at night, with lows mostly in the lower 60s. Even though it's not summertime yet, it's still important to remember heat safety as these temperatures are well above the seasonal norm for this time of year. If you have outdoor activities or work outside, make sure to drink plenty of water and take frequent breaks in the shade! && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 1040 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A deepening surface low is predicted to eject northeastward from Lake MI into the James Bay vicinity on Saturday/Saturday night in conjunction with a negatively-tilted shortwave (embedded within a broader trough extending from northern Canada into the southern Plains). Strengthening SSW flow is expected to occur throughout the cyclones warm sector, and will contribute to another warm day featuring highs in the mid 80s for our region. Latest extended range model data continues to suggest that showers and a few thunderstorms may develop by mid-day near a prefrontal surface trough extending from western KY into northern MS, and although some of this activity could spread eastward into the western portion of our CWFA late Saturday afternoon, it appears as if precipitation chances will be highest with passage of the cold front Saturday evening. Forecast soundings still depict a layer of warm/stable air aloft (rooted around 4-6 kft AGL) for much of the day, which should gradually begin to erode Saturday evening as a narrow axis of dewpoints in the l-m 60s surges northward ahead of the front and synoptic scale forcing for ascent strengthens ahead of the approaching 500-mb trough. Should an updraft become sufficiently tall to take advantage of mid-level flow that will be increasing to 50-60 knots, brief strong wind gusts may occur. However, at this point, we expect generally weak/low- topped convection, followed by a 2-4 hour period of light postfrontal rain, with rainfall amounts ranging from 0.10-0.25" (SE) to 0.5-0.75" (NW). Present indications are that rain will end around or shortly before 12Z Sunday in the southeastern portion of the forecast area, with gusty NNW winds advecting a cooler, drier airmass into the region throughout the day. Highs on Sunday will fall back into the m-u 60s (even with abundant sunshine), followed by cool overnight lows in the l-m 40s. Prevailing NW flow aloft to the east of a longwave ridge across the western CONUS will ensure a continuation of dry weather on Monday/Tuesday, although a couple of weak disturbances traveling through the ridge may result in an increase in mid/high-level clouds. Regardless, the onset of SE return flow will lead to a gradual warming trend with highs returning to the mid 70s by the end of the period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the period with a mostly clear sky. Winds may become gusty out of the SSW/SW this afternoon between 15-20 kts, before weakening after sunset. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM....26 LONG TERM....70 AVIATION...AMP.24  790 FXUS63 KLMK 150528 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 128 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Well-above normal temperatures continue throughout the upcoming week. A few temperature records may be in jeopardy tomorrow. * Mostly dry through Wednesday. The next chance for widespread rainfall is expected Thursday, with some strong storms possible. * A stronger cold front will bring a chance for showers and storms again on Saturday. Another low-end threat for strong storms exists with this system. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 334 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s and lower 80s this afternoon under a mix of sun and clouds. Sfc winds have been gusty today due to steep low level lapse rates, with peak gusts between 20- 30 mph. We remain under the southeastern ridge, which has kept most precip off to our north and west. There are a few cells developing in a WAA zone with deeper moisture convergence and steeper lapse rates across IL, and the latest WoFs paintball runs support isolated to scattered convection across central IL and IN the remaining afternoon, with some potential for a few storms to approach our northernmost corner of the forecast area. According to mesoanalysis, we have destabilized to around 1500 J/kg of SBCAPE across along and north of the Ohio River. With effective bulk shear between 35-40kts, the environment is supportive for thunderstorms, but we lack any trigger to initiate. Will watch for any storms that sneak near the area, and monitor any development along any outflow. SPC has kept the marginal risk clipped in our northern corner, but any severe potential near our area will really be for central IN and OH. Dry weather is expected overnight, with mild temps only getting down into the 60s as we remain in a WAA pattern. Another warm and breezy day tomorrow, with highs in the mid to upper 80s, and gusty southwest winds up to 25 mph or so. The southeastern ridge will remain through tomorrow, keeping the axis of moisture transport and the parade of convection to our north and west as a shortwave pivots across the central US. We remain mostly dry tomorrow, with only an isolated to scattered chance for precip north of the Ohio River through the afternoon. By Wednesday night, that southeastern ridge will begin to erode, which will allow for PoPs to begin to creep eastward through the night. While most will remain dry until Thursday, some precip chances begin to arrive in our west overnight. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 334 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ===== Thursday through Friday ===== The southeastern ridge will break down toward the end of the week, which will open the corridor for higher precip chances in deep southwesterly flow. On Thursday, showers and storms are expected as an upper shortwave pivots across the Ohio Valley. While shower and storms are expected, there remains lower confidence on severe potential. SPC introduced a Marginal Risk, but there remains plenty of uncertainty to limit confidence. Model soundings show rather thick cloud cover and plenty of saturation in the column. Additionally, some model guidance indicates morning shower and storm activity, which could hinder afternoon destabilization for severe potential. However, effective bulk shear near 40kts will support some organization with any redevelopment through the day, so at least some storms will remain possible. Drier conditions are expected for most of Friday as brief upper ridging moves across the lower Ohio Valley. Temperatures are expected to reach the mid to upper 80s. By Friday night, another upper wave will move across the Plains, with a trailing cold front across the central Plains. This will result in a strengthening LLJ and moisture transport axis ahead of the front to support increasing precip chances. Not everyone will see rain Friday night, with the best chances across all of southern IN, but isolated chances along and north of the WK/BG Pkwys. ===== Weekend Outlook ===== The upper trough will likely amplify through the weekend, leading to higher confidence on a cold front to sweep through the forecast area sometime between Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning. WAA ahead of the front, combined with SW gusty gradient sfc winds, will help temps reach the 80s for most again, especially in our east where longer diurnal heating will occur as the front moves in from the west. Our highest chance for showers and storms through the day will arrive along or just ahead of the cold front. While upstream saturation and cloud cover will help limit instability parameters, strong forcing along the eastward-advancing front combined with favorable deep-layer flow will likely lead to a line of convection passing through sometime during the afternoon. The GEFS and GEPS ensembles indicate a 25-35% chance for SBCAPE values to exceed 750 J/kg Saturday afternoon. Additionally, deep layer shear parameters and steep low level lapse also add to the confidence in storm potential on Saturday. With a line of convection expected, mainly looking at a damaging wind threat on Saturday. Behind FROPA, expect tapering precip chances and winds shifting out of the northwest. Cooler post-frontal air will also be filtering in, leading to temps to drop into the 40s by Sunday morning. Precip chances will linger into Sunday morning, but are expected to fully exit the area by the middle of the day. We should also see increasing sunshine throughout the day as the front departs to the east. ===== Early Next Week ===== The upper trough will swing through sometime Sunday night or on Monday, though we will remain in a NW upper flow for the start of next week. Sfc high pressure will build across the area, leading to another dry stretch at least for Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures will be cool during this time, with highs on Monday in the 60s and highs on Tuesday in the low 70s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 127 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions and south-southwest winds around 6-12 kt are expected through mid-morning, with occasional 15-20 kt gusts possible. As previous discussions have mentioned, there should be some marginal LLWS over the next few hours as a 40-45 kt LLJ resides just to the north of HNB and SDF. A fairly similar setup to the last few days is expected today, with winds and wind gusts increasing between 13-15Z as daytime heating begins. Expect sustained winds generally between 10-15 kt, with gusts of 20-25 kt likely. A SCT-BKN stratocu field should develop again today, with cloud bases between 5-7k ft. This evening, wind gusts should ease around sunset, with S/SW winds around 6-12 kt expected again tonight. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CJP LONG TERM...CJP AVIATION...CSG  364 FXUS65 KGJT 150528 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1128 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Sub-freezing temperatures are expected for most valleys Wednesday morning where a Freeze Warning is in place. A Freeze Watch is in effect for a few valleys Wednesday night into Thursday morning as well. - After a brief mid-week warm up, colder and unsettled weather returns to the region Thursday night into Saturday morning with widespread hard freeze possible as well as mountain and high valley snow. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1050 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Satellite imagery and radar show the low that transited the region this afternoon is now moving over the Front Range and out onto the Plains. Convective activity has for the most part ended under subsidence behind the low with only light orographic showers continuing, primarily along the western and northwestern faces of rising terrain. Look for these showers to diminish overnight with only a few lingering into the morning hours along the higher peaks of the central Colorado Mountains. As the system moves out, sub-freezing temperatures are likely overnight through Wednesday morning for most lower valleys with the exception of the Grand Valley and valleys of east-central and southeast Utah. Thus a Freeze Warning for these areas is in place through 9 AM. The growing season is well underway for all lower valleys so protect plants and sensitive vegetation if you are impacted. Can't really say a ridge builds in behind the retreating low because the next low pressure system is hot on its heels descending along the British Columbia Coast, and will move in through the Pacific Northwest by Wednesday afternoon to keep any ridge knocked down. At most the flow aloft becomes more zonal advecting warm air into the region to restore temperatures across eastern Utah and Western Colorado to near to a little above normal Wednesday, warming to five degrees or more above normal Thursday. In spite of these temperatures warming to normal, they remain cooler than we've seen the last week or so, and some areas may continue below the freezing mark with potential for below freezing temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday morning for the southwest Colorado valleys and the Central Colorado River Basin (valleys east of New Castle and south of Glenwood Springs to Carbondale), hence we have a Freeze Watch in place for these areas Wednesday night. Stay tuned for an update on this in the morning as the forecast temperatures become more certain. The next system drops in from the northwest Thursday with strong jet support and a tight pressure gradient through the middle atmosphere producing winds gusting 30 to 40 mph in the valleys and 45 to 60 mph in the mountains. These stronger winds and jet are indicative of the strength of the cold front associated with this system having temperatures falling 20 degrees or more behind the front. Expect showers and isolated thunderstorms moving into the Uinta Mountains Thursday afternoon ahead of the cold front that drops in Thursday evening. These showers will push southeast to I-70 through the evening and to the San Juan Mountains overnight into Friday morning with the cold front running three to six hours behind the start of the showers. Look for wide spread showers continuing behind the frontal boundary with snow levels falling 5000 feet. Though the heavy cloud cover Friday morning will keep temperatures in the low to mid 30's, don't be surprised to see snow flakes falling in the Grand Valley through the morning. The widespread showers will diminish west to east through Friday as the upper-level trough moves overhead. Thunderstorms will increase through the afternoon mostly over the mountains as the right entrance region of the jet moves overhead. The moisture associated with this system continues to decline with each run of the models, which is typical with these northwest systems, and hence winter headline are not expected. But with the strong dynamics with this system, brief snow squalls may be possible with the cold front Thursday night, with reduced visibility and rapidly deteriorating road conditions. Stay tuned for updates on this possibility. Behind this cold front, a hard freeze is forecast for Friday night into Saturday morning as this system moves off to the east. Many of the valleys across the region will see lows in the teens to low 20's with the Grand Valley and other lower valleys seeing temperatures in the mid to upper 20's. Expect headlines for this in the next day or so, but now is the time to start planning for this cold snap. Looking beyond Saturday, a high pressure ridge builds back in this weekend into early next week, resulting in a return back up towards above normal warmth as the rollercoaster spring weather continues. However, another storm system potentially looms for mid to late next week, so we still look to remain in this progressive pattern. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1120 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Some light convective showers are lingering across the region at this hour, but should diminish between now and 12z. For most terminals, low clouds will lift during this period as well, with ceilings lifting above breakpoints by 12z. Clouds linger longest for KHDN, who will hold onto a ceiling through roughly 18z tomorrow afternoon. Winds will be light and either northerly or following typical terrain driven patterns through 15z or so, becoming westerly to southwesterly and gusting up to 25 knots tomorrow afternoon. VFR conditions will prevail. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT Wednesday for COZ001-002-007-008- 011-020>023. Freeze Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday morning for COZ008-021>023. UT...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT Wednesday for UTZ024. && $$ DISCUSSION...MDA/DB AVIATION...TGJT  496 FXUS65 KBOI 150529 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 1129 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain, mountain snow and gusty winds on Wednesday, then snow level lowering to valley floors Thursday morning. - Subfreezing morning temperatures Thursday through Saturday across the entire area. - Warmer temperatures over the weekend with another chance of precipitation early next week. && .SHORT TERM /Through Thursday Night/... Issued 232 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2026 An upper trough dropping south along the BC coast will push into the region later tonight bringing valley rain and mountain snow. Precipitation will develop across SE Oregon by late this evening, spreading into SW Idaho overnight. Snow levels of 5000-6500 feet will support snow or a rain/snow mix across mountain valley floors with any minor accumulation melting off by late morning. Precipitation mixes with or changes to rain below 6000 feet with a heavy, wet snow continuing in the higher mountains through Wednesday evening. Liquid equivalent totals over the mountains is 0.75-1.5" over the 24h period from late this evening through Wednesday evening. Above 6500 feet this will translate to 10-20" of snow, with high end amounts of up to 2 feet. Lower elevations will see periods of rain on Wednesday. By late morning strong southwest flow aloft (30-50 mph at ~10kft) will mix to the surface bringing gusty winds to higher terrain outside of the Snake Plain. The windiest locations will be southern Harney, Malhuer, and Owyhee counties where gusts of 40-45 mph are expected. A cold front will push into the region Wednesday evening bringing a chance of thunderstorms, more gusty winds and lower snow levels. Areas that don't tap into the stronger winds during the day, will see a period of stronger gusts with the frontal passage. This is mostly in the Snake Plain and Weiser Basin. Snow levels will drop to valley floors behind the front as precipitation scatters out. Though it will remain breezy, lower elevations will briefly flirt with freezing temperatures Thursday morning. The upper low passes overhead on Thursday, keeping a chance of rain/snow/graupel showers at lower elevations with snow showers in the mountains. Daytime instability will support heavier showers and possible thunderstorms in the mountains which could drop brief heavy snow. Thursday night will see drying conditions and clearing skies as the low exits eastward. This will allow for a widespread freeze, and for many locations a hard freeze (28 degrees or less). && .LONG TERM /Friday through Tuesday/... Issued 232 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2026 Strong northwest flow from the back end of the eastward moving trough will continue breezy conditions Friday, with elevated gusts up to 30 mph mainly over Magic Valley and Camas Prairie. The west-central ID mountains will see a 20-30% chance of snow showers from remnant upper moisture on Friday. Nighttime temperatures will be expected to stay on the colder end, below freezing through Saturday morning. Otherwise, a warming and drying trend will settle in for the weekend as a ridge builds in from the northwest coast. Peak temperatures will hover slightly above normal on Saturday and 5-10 degrees above normal on Sunday. Long-range guidance continues to favor another low digging down from the Gulf of Alaska early next week, although considerable uncertainty remains over its arrival timing for our area. However, ensembles still favor the late Sunday/Monday time frame. With that, precipitation chances will increase from west to east early Sunday into Monday, reaching 30-60% area-wide by Monday afternoon. Precipitation chances will remain elevated through midweek. The south-southwest flow from this system will keep temperatures near normal when it impacts our area. Gusty winds can be expected ahead of and behind the system passage. && .AVIATION /06Z Wednesday through Thursday/... Issued 1129 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2026 VFR this eve. Precip NW to SE tonight into Wed, with snow levels 5k-6kft MSL. Low VFR-MVFR in rain, IFR/LIFR in mtn snow. Cold front arriving late Wed aftn/eve, intensifying precip rates, rapidly lowering snow levels from NW to SE, and creating sharp wind shifts. MVFR-LIFR conditions in heavy showers. A 15% chc of lightning with front. Mtns obscured in precip/low cigs. Surface winds: SE-SW 5-15 kt, increasing to 10-20 kt gusts 20-35 kt beginning late Wed AM. Then, W-N 15-30 kt with 25-45 kt gusts with cold front passage Wed PM. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-SW 25-40 kt. KBOI...VFR tonight. Rain showers returning early Wednesday morning with lowering ceilings. MVFR chances increase after Wed/10Z. Strong cold front arrives late Wed afternoon, bringing strong showers, potential for graupel/lightning, sharp wind shift, and temporary MVFR/IFR. Surface winds: SE or variable 3-12 kt. Wind shift around Thu/00Z to NW 15-25 kt with gusts to 25-35 kt. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....SH SHORT TERM...DG LONG TERM....JY  431 FXUS63 KEAX 150529 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1229 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...06z Aviation Update... .KEY MESSAGES... * Active weather pattern continues with multiple chances for strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon, tomorrow and again Friday night. * Warm temperatures (upper 70s to low/mid 80s) are expected to persist through the work week, with cooler and drier conditions expected this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 113 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Residual cloud cover has mostly mixed out this afternoon with strong surface heating sending temperatures into the low to mid 80s. Strong/deep mixing is starting and dewpoints are starting to drop at Topeka and into east central Kansas. This for now is leading to a fairly diffuse dryline and poor low level convergence. Although high clouds streaming in over Kansas and Oklahoma show at least some signal for an increase in modest large scale ascent in a few hours. ACARS soundings show a modest inversion and modified RAP soundings with ACARS input show a convective temp around 85 to 87 F. Most high resolution guidance sets the strongest part of the dryline up from about Ottawa, KS to St. Joseph, MO by 3 to 5 pm but it looks too diffuse to be a slam-dunk zone for convective initiation. Most CAM guidance initiates convection along the leading edge of an upper level ripple (likely shown by the high clouds in KS/OK) in southeast Kansas by 4 to 5 pm and sends it northeastward into the forecast area in the late afternoon and evening - and that appears to be the most likely scenario. By that time T/Td spreads will be about 25 to 30 degrees with lower level flow at 20 to 30 kts out of the southwest. CAM guidance (again probably reasonably) favors multi-cell clusters that try to organized into a few isolated bowing segments as they move northeastward. This would pose a threat for damaging wind with deeper cores producing a large hail threat given the fairly steep mid level lapse rates and available deep layer shear. Hodographs are favorable enough for some tornado threat, particularly if any cells maintain discrete elements. Rain chances then look to decrease through the overnight. Wednesday the shortwave trough axis currently over the Rockies pushes through the region and sends the cold front currently lagging back over the high Plains towards the area. This looks to create much better shower/storm coverage, as well as sparking things off earlier in the day, with showers and storms becoming more likely by early to mid afternoon. Some severe threat (wind/hail) looks to accompany this activity as well. Although instability/diurnal heating will be more limited by cloud cover and the time of day which may mitigate the threat. The cold front clears the area Wednesday night but we get back into return flow almost immediately on Thursday with dewpoints reloading into the mid 60s. Light low level warm air advection may spark a shower or two in this period but the main focus will be on Friday night into Saturday. A strong/sharp shortwave trough interacts with the exit region of a 120kt or so southwesterly jet maxima moving out of the southern Plains, creating strong ascent and spinning up a 991mb or so surface low in the lee of the Rockies that quickly moves northeastward into the western Great Lakes. There appears to be yet another severe weather threat with this period (SPC maintains a 30% Day 4 risk). Convective mode may be messy however due to strong large scale ascent and low-level kinematics. What does appear likely to be in place is strong deep layer and low-level shear (850 mb winds 50-55kts) with sufficient instability. This period will need to continue to be monitored for the potential for all-modes of severe weather before a strong cold front finally sends the region back to a cooler and more stable pattern through most of the rest of the forecast period. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1223 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 TAFs continue to be somewhat messy and uncertain. MVFR ceilings do look likely across the TAF sites late in the current overnight, lingering into late morning/early afternoon before they mix/lift back into VFR. The more uncertain and messy aspect though continues to be convective trends and timing. It is possible to see some budding scattered convection around/after 10z this morning, with genesis near to just E/NE of KSTJ/KMCI. That has been accounted for with a VCTS mention for that time period, and one can expect any activity in their vicinity to pretty quickly drift E/NE. The afternoon/evening convection potential is more certain, but timing remains a bit in flux. With that part in mind, have opted for a TEMPO period to indicate the current best window for storms ahead of and along the frontal passage. VFR conditions return quickly thereafter by around 00z. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Curtis AVIATION...Curtis  393 FXUS61 KPBZ 150529 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 129 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation discussion has been updated for 00Z TAF issuance. Otherwise no changes to the forecast or discussion since this afternoon. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Anomalously warm temperatures this week. Daily record high max and minimum temperatures will be challenged and possibly broken, especially on Wednesday. 2) Increasing daily storm chances this week with a possible multi- day MCS event. Areawide marginal Risk of severe weather today. 3) Severe risk continues Wednesday with a Slight Risk of severe weather north of I-70 and Marginal Risk between I-68 and I-70. Storm chances to continue Thursday as well. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... The ridge anchored across the Southeast and eastern Gulf continues to influence our weather through the week. At its strongest, the ridge will near 590dam (just over 2 standard deviations above normal for this time of year). This abnormally strong ridge will continue to support abnormally high temperatures (over 3 standard deviations above normal) across the region through the work week and possibly as late as Saturday. Our location on the northwestern side of the ridge will continue warm and moist southwesterly flow over the coming days. Locally, heat looks to peak on Wednesday, with 500mb heights hitting 580dam over the city and widespread 850mb temperatures between 14-16C, suggesting that unhindered mixing would see temperatures surge into at least the middle 80s. Probabilities of high temperatures over 80 degrees remain near and over 60% for areas south of I-80 each day from Tuesday- Thursday and then again on Saturday. Friday looks like heating may be interrupted by a rain-laden cold front pushing through the region. This could finally help shake up the pattern before models seem to indicate another Low moving through the Great Lakes early this weekend. Record high max and min temperatures look like they will be tied or set at several sites across our region, especially on Wednesday and Thursday. Daily rain chances look to be the only thing possibly keeping a lid on record challenging runaway heating. These chances are highest north, closer to the periphery of the ridge, and thus probabilities of record setting heat generally decrease from south to north. Each site features at least one day with a >40% chance to set a new record high and PHD (shortest climate record) features 3 days with >70% chance. Concurrently, each site also features at least 2 days with >50% chance of setting new record high minimum temperatures and PIT features 5 straight days with >65% chance of doing so. PIT features several "low hanging fruit" in this category with 3 such daily high minimum temperatures in the 50s. Our forecast for Wednesday lows may break the old record of 58 by a whopping 8 degrees. Minor heat risk continues areawide today through Thursday before retracting some on Friday. Heat impacts will primarily be felt by those who are extremely sensitive to heat and those without cooling/hydration. Speckled moderate risk areas continue to crop up Wednesday and Saturday and are expanding in area, mainly in the Ohio and Mon river valleys. KEY MESSAGE 2... We are at the beginning of what looks like it could be a multi- day MCS event across the Great Lakes and into our region. This pattern owing to our anomalously strong ridge feels much more like a June setup than an April one. Warm and moist southwesterly flow will set the table each afternoon for storms to fire along decaying or residual boundaries left over from the previous nights convection and renewed convection cresting the top of the ridge could press into the forecast area overnight starting the whole process again. Todays convection is having a difficult time eroding the warm layer. As seen on the 12Z southing, strong capping was present at 700MB and below that. Thus storms are having a difficult time of developing and getting some depth. Early showers and thunderstorms have likely weaken the cap a bit. With afternoon heating, it will remain to be seen if deeper convection is realized as at this time, CAMs are struggling to develop anything now. Thus, it is likely that the development this afternoon will be subsevere. Certainly, a 40 mph gust can't be ruled out with an overperforming strong storm. Overnight, it looks likely that we decouple in a rapidly worsening environment. Several CAMs depict one or more bowing segments moving across southern MI towards us late tonight. These segments tend to move quicker than modeling suggests but would still likely not enter the region until after 2am or so. By this time it looks unlikely but still possible to see a damaging wind threat from these storms. KEY MESSAGE 3... The ridging and shortwave pattern and thus multi-day MCS event continues into Wednesday. Wednesday sees more impressive heating and increasing moisture advection in continued southwesterly flow. As such, model soundings feature well over 2000 J/kg of CAPE across much of the region, very impressive for our region in April. This comes hand in hand with a 5-10kt increase in shear when compared to Tuesday. These elements could allow for isolated to scattered super cellular structures to develop across the region or for a quick reinvigoration of any ongoing MCS/MCV left over from Tuesday night. Multi-day MCS propagation forecasting is very low confidence, with Wednesday's forecast highly dependent on Tuesday night. Storms on Wednesday look like they could bring all severe hazards, with increasing low-level moisture lowering LCLs and more robust CAPE at the SFC and in the -20 to -30C range. SPC has introduced a Marginal Risk to our region north of the Mason- Dixon Line and a Slight Risk north of I-70 on Wednesday. Timing for this seems to point more toward the 16Z to 20Z timeframe with additional convection after 23Z. Both time periods currently have a decent potential for development of severe storms. Storms look likely to continue on Thursday, but the pattern breaks down a little as a more meaningful SFC low moves through the Great Lakes. This could end the multi-day MCS event but could bring its own renewed chance for storms along the draping cold front. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR prevails to begin the TAF period and much of the forecast is expected to be VFR as well. This will possibly be broken by several chances for showers and storms. The first of which largely occurs between 10-14z when the ongoing line of storms in Michigan is expected to encroach upon the region. By the time it gets here, it will likely be a broken line of dying showers and may fracture further before even making it to BVI or anywhere further south. These showers could bring MVFR restrictions in VIS to affected ports and lowering chances for MVFR CIGs at FKL and DUJ which have seen CIG forecasts improve this cycle. These showers have been included as TEMPOs for FKL/DUJ, PROB30s as far south as HLG/AGC/LBE and are not mentioned further south. After these early showers decay, widespread VFR and dry weather returns until the afternoon, when storms begin to spark again. The outlook for tomorrow afternoon remains similar to yesterday, with a wide range of timing and coverage solutions at play. Currently storms are favored largely north of I-70 this afternoon and evening, possibly beginning again by early afternoon closer to I-80 first. Most model solutions then bring additional lines of storms across the region (highest chances again north of I-70) after sunset. Storm coverage may be more limited in the afternoon before becoming more widespread in the evening, but both timeframes look to support hail and damaging wind gust threats. Both of these possible storm timings have been included as PROB30 groups for affected ports trying to forecast the best time. This remains rather difficult though, with storm timing and location being largely dependent on the existence and placement of boundaries tomorrow morning from ongoing convection tonight. MGW may find it self far enough south to miss out on all of this activity and could be VFR and dry through the entire TAF period. ZZV could also luck out but has a higher chance than MGW to see storms tomorrow evening. Again, large portions of the forecast period will be VFR but instances of restrictions in showers and storms are possible mainly north near sunrise and tomorrow afternoon and then a little more widespread by evening time. Outlook... The Upper Ohio River Valley will remain positioned near the upper ridge axis throughout the week and make it liable for multiple shortwave crossing to foster periodic showers/thunderstorms and precip-driven restrictions. A pattern shift is unlikely to occur until late Sunday into Monday before confidence becomes high again on a prolonged period of dry, VFR weather. && .CLIMATE... See below for record max highs and max lows this week: Today, April 14th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 86F (1883) 64F (1896) Wheeling, WV: 87F (1941) 60F (2014) Morgantown, WV: 86F (2018) 66F (2014) New Philadelphia, OH: 82F (2023) 56F (2006) Zanesville, OH: 87F (1941) 60F (1899) DuBois, PA: 86F (2023) 60F (2014) Wednesday, April 15th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 85F (1883) 61F (1967) Wheeling, WV: 82F (2010) 59F (2002) Morgantown, WV: 86F (1993) 65F (1967) New Philadelphia, OH: 82F (2010) 58F (2023) Zanesville, OH: 85F (1941) 61F (1972) DuBois, PA: 79F (2003) 56F (2002) Thursday, April 16th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 86F (2002) 63F (2017) Wheeling, WV: 86F (1945) 64F (2002) Morgantown, WV: 88F (2002) 64F (2012) New Philadelphia, OH: 85F (2002) 62F (2017) Zanesville, OH: 86F (2002) 65F (1912) DuBois, PA: 82F (2012) 59F (1976) Friday, April 17th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 87F (1896) 63F (1896) Wheeling, WV: 84F (2002) 64F (2002) Morgantown, WV: 89F (1976) 64F (1960) New Philadelphia, OH: 84F (2002) 60F (1982) Zanesville, OH: 88F (1896) 66F (1896) DuBois, PA: 83F (2002) 60F (2002) Saturday, April 18th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 90F (1896) 64F (1896) Wheeling, WV: 85F (2025) 63F (2002) Morgantown, WV: 92F (1976) 64F (2013) New Philadelphia, OH: 86F (1976) 57F (2019) Zanesville, OH: 92F (1896) 66F (1896) DuBois, PA: 87F (1976) 61F (2002) && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Shallenberger/AK AVIATION...Cermak/AK  178 FXUS61 KBGM 150530 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 130 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes to the forecast. Adjusted precipitation and thunder changes for tomorrow, as guidance continues to show a later onset time of strong to severe storms. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Strong to severe storms are expected tomorrow, starting in the late afternoon to evening. The main threat will be strong to damaging winds. 2) The warm pattern through the week will break down late in the weekend, with much colder air arriving in the late weekend, and extending into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Today will be similar to yesterday, as the area maintains under the ridge flow pattern with shortwaves and MCS' continuing to ride along the ridge. We're currently monitoring the MCS in Michigan, which will be the driver of some early morning convection around sunrise. Ahead of the approaching system, there's a small pocket of CAPE in Western NY that bleeds a little into our western counties for this forecast area. This will likely lead to a line of storms approaching and pushing into the area from the west, but will likely fizzle slowly out as it moves across mainly Central NY and the Twin Tiers. Going into the afternoon, models continue to show that there will be more CAPE than yesterday (>1000J/kg of surface CAPE) and better shear (>40 knots of 0-6 km shear). If the timing of the mid level wave that triggers the storms is like the current model guidance is showing (in the late afternoon to evening), strong to severe storms are likely, and isolated supercells are possible. SPC maintains a Marginal risk across most of Central NY and NE PA for this potential, with a Slight Risk nearby in Central PA. The main potential threats with Wednesday's storms will be strong to isolated damaging winds, some hail, and training storms bringing heavy downpours that could cause isolated flooding. WPC continues a Marginal Risk for excessive rain, and isolated flash flooding across most of the forecast area for the late afternoon through the overnight hours. We will still be in this warm SW flow pattern going into Thursday, with frequent shortwaves bringing rainfall and afternoon storms. Better forcing arrives late in the day along an incoming cold front. There is uncertainty in the amount of CAPE that ultimately materializes, but with temperatures back in the mid-70s to low 80s, and dew points in the low 60s, instability could again reach moderate levels (1000 J/kg +). This time period will need to be watched closely as 0-6km shear remains elevated between 40-50 kts once again over the region. After the cold front pushes through Thursday night into Friday morning, there will be some lingering showers and a chance for a few storms through the day on Friday. However, overall instability and shear are forecast to be much lower on Friday. Temperatures will also come down some, with highs in the mid-60s to mid-70s expected. KEY MESSAGE 2... While this warm, early summer-like pattern persist through the first half of the weekend, the late weekend into early next week has continued to trend cooler, thanks to a trough digging into our area. With the Great Lakes likely warming up some over the rest of this week, it is possible they would be warm enough to generate lake effect snow shower activity with this pattern, as temperature differentials exceed 15C from the lake surface up to the 850mb level. With the anomalously cold air mass in place it appears daytime highs may stay in the 30s to low 40s on Monday. Very cold overnight lows in the 20s are then expected Monday night into Tuesday morning. It then appears a gradual moderating trend will take hold Tuesday into the middle of next week. As of now, the pattern with the cold is looking dry (outside of lake effect). && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Another night with calm winds after some rainfall has led to fog in the area. Most of the Central NY terminals will have off- and-on periods of fog early this morning with Fuel Alt to IFR restrictions. A line of showers and possibly some thunderstorms then moves in from the west around 10z and quickly passes through the region. There is uncertainty if showers will reach AVP with this initial round. There will be a lull in shower activity until late this afternoon. Another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected to move in late in the day and continue well into the evening hours. Isolated storms could become strong to severe with gusty winds and hail. After sunset, thunderstorms should lose their energy but there will be showers lingering around until near the end of the TAF period. With these showers, MVFR to Fuel Alt restrictions are expected. Guidance is hinting at IFR ceilings after 00z at SYR and RME but this forecast caps restrictions at Fuel Alt for now. Winds have now become calmer. Winds will become gusty after the morning line of showers move through with peak gusts around 20 kts. This update kept higher winds in the forecast as observations in recent days have been higher than forecasted and with an active pattern, there is potential for stronger winds. Then winds calm back down late in the TAF period. Wind direction will vary throughout the day, starting out southerly and becoming more westerly as the afternoon showers move in. Outlook: Wednesday Night through Friday...Restrictions possible from showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Early morning fog also possible. Saturday...Additional restrictions look to arrive along with showers and storms late in the day Saturday. Sunday...Restrictions possible from showers. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KL AVIATION...BTL  497 FXUS63 KGID 150530 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1230 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Red Flag Warning through 9 PM for most of our counties along and south of the Nebraska-Kansas border (RH 15-25%, WSW wind gusts 25-35 mph) - Severe thunderstorms will be possible this evening mainly within a corridor from Kearney and Holdrege and points to the northeast towards York and Fullerton. The main threats will be quarter size hail and wind gusts to 60 mph through around or just after sunset. - Another round of thunderstorms Wednesday morning through 3 PM across south central Nebraska could also become severe with the primary threats being large hail and damaging winds. - Friday's storm system will likely send a cold front through early in the day resulting in morning highs, strong northerly winds, and colder temperatures than currently forecast (likely not a nice day). But this will probably keep the severe weather threat east of our forecast area. - Strong north-northwest winds Friday into Friday night: Our entire forecast area will have strong north-northwest winds Friday into Friday night, with sustained speeds of at least 30 MPH and gusts of at least 40 MPH likely. (Not a nice day) - Almost daily fire weather concerns Thurs onward: Each afternoon between Thursday and Monday, at least near-critical fire weather conditions are forecast develop within at least parts of our forecast area. A few days could also see fire weather conditions reach critical levels, including already on Thursday. - Slightly sub-freezing temperatures possible this weekend: Some areas will fall below freezing already Saturday morning with most areas around or below freezing by Sunday morning. Did you already plant your tomatoes (better cover them). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 251 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Today... The SPC expanded the marginal severe weather risk area into our forecast area along the nearly stationary boundary running from Kearney towards York. We have seen vertical development in the CU field around the Tri-Cities and are getting close to possible thunderstorm development. We could see a few isolated thunderstorms in this narrow frontal zone where moisture has been pooling allowing dewpoints to climb to around 50F. These will mainly be elevated thunderstorms taking advantage of the steep lapse rates, modest MUCAPE values to around 1000 J/KG, and very strong 0-6 km shear (65 kts). Quarter sized hail is the primary threat, but larger DCAPE values over 1200 J/KG suggest that strong wind gusts to 60 mph will also be possible with any of these thunderstorms. Tonight... We could see some scattered showers or even an isolated thunderstorm, but most areas will likely stay dry. However, things could get more interesting during the day on Wednesday. Wednesday... The last two runs (12Z and 18Z) of the RRFS have been indicating thunderstorm development across our western zones around dawn. These thunderstorms then track northeast through the morning, could impact the Tri-Cities, and exit our northeastern forecast area early Wednesday afternoon (likely before 3 PM). Although our forecast area is not currently outlooked for severe weather, it is possible that the severe weather threat area may need to be expanded to include some of our Nebraska counties. The main threat will again be hail and wind through early afternoon. Breezy northwesterly winds in the afternoon along with cooler 60s behind the storm system may result in it feeling not as nice as one might expect. Thursday... This is a high confidence warm day with highs back into the 80s. It should be dry and we have some fire weather concerns, please see the fire weather section below. Friday Through next Weekend... A big open wave upper trough will race across the plains, but the timing is not favorable for our area to see much if any precipitation. An expected Friday morning frontal passage will likely result in falling temperatures on Friday. Our forecast is probably too warm and would not be surprised if see some areas falling into the 40s Friday afternoon. Even if it starts out nice Friday morning across our southeastern zones, it probably won't end very nice behind that cold front. Fire weather is again a concern. Please see the fire weather section below. Monday and Tuesday... The cold will be short lived and we should quickly see a warmer weather pattern return ahead of a developing western United States Trough. That trough could bring us some mid week rain. We'll have to see as it's still a long ways off. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1220 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Can't rule out some isolated-scattered showers over the next few hours, but the better chances tonight look to remain focused to the southeast of the terminal areas. Have VFR conditions the rest of tonight...with winds remaining north-northeasterly around 10-15 MPH. During the daytime hours today, another round of showers/storms will push east through the area, mainly from mid-morning through mid-afternoon. With uncertainties with the overall coverage, kept the mention in a PROB30 group. Also included in that mid-morning through early afternoon group is the potential for MVFR ceilings...though latest run of models have backed off that potential a touch. Precip expected to end by late afternoon, with the rest of this period dry. Winds during the day are expected to turn more northwesterly, then more westerly...some gusts near 25 MPH are not out of the question. Evening hours will bring the potential for more variable wind direction. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 520 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING: Red flag conditions are ongoing south of the nearly stationary boundary. This includes our Nebraska counties along the NE/KS border as well as all of our north central Kansas counties. Red flag conditions are expected to continue until around sunset. Higher dewpoints just north of the stationary boundary will limit the fire danger along the I80 (Tri-Cities) area. THURSDAY: We will get a break in the fire weather conditions on Wednesday due to cooler weather and scattered showers. However, the heat, drier RH, and southerly winds will return on Thursday afternoon- early evening as high temperatures again jump into the 80s with southerly winds sustained around 20 MPH/gusting at least 25 MPH. Relative humidity will tank to around 10-20% in the afternoon. We may need fire weather headlines for Thursday afternoon, but wanted to get through today's Red Flag Warning first before issuing for Thursday. FRIDAY-MONDAY: There is less certainty during this time frame and it will get cooler. The airmass behind Friday's system is dry and RH values will continue to be at least near critical. There could be enough wind to result in possible fire weather headlines during this period for some areas. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wesely AVIATION...ADP FIRE WEATHER...Wesely  650 FXUS64 KTSA 150530 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1230 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1220 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Severe storms remain possible Wednesday afternoon and evening. - Warm, humid, and breezy southerly flow continues for much of the rest of this week. - Another chance of showers and thunderstorms, some potentially severe, is expected Friday into Saturday before cooler air arrives behind a cold front. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Wednesday) Issued at 1137 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A warm and humid airmass will remain over the area through Wednesday, with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected through the day as an upper trough approaches from the west. Severe storms will again be possible Wednesday afternoon and evening, with the extent of the severe weather threat largely determined by how much festering convection remains earlier in the day, which may limit the amount of instability. Afternoon high temperatures Wednesday will mostly be in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 1137 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Shower and storm chances will continue into early Thursday, with the severe weather threat waning with time later Wednesday night. Warm and humid conditions will continue Thursday, but additional storm development Thursday afternoon and evening appears unlikely due to subsidence behind the departing upper trough. Another upper trough will move across the plains late Friday into Saturday, with an accompanying cold front moving across the area Friday night and early Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms will likely accompany the front, with severe weather possible late Friday afternoon into the night, mainly in the form of damaging winds. Much cooler and drier air will filter into the area behind the front this weekend, with near normal temperatures returning for the first part of next week. Rain chances look to return around the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Ongoing MCS will affect the NW AR TAF sites over the next hour or two with IFR potential and strong wind gusts. Activity is expected to stay north of KMLC and KFSM, though activity is close enough to KFSM to warrant a TEMPO mention. MCS exits the area over the next few hours and then the focus will be overspread of MVFR cigs by daybreak. Cigs then expected to climb to low-end VFR by midday Wednesday. CAMs show some potential for spotty showers and storms during the early afternoon at the NW AR sites and will use a PROB30 to cover. Main activity develops across NE OK by mid to late afternoon and will eventually evolve into an MCS sweeping east and south across the region through the end of the TAF period, assuming CAMs have a decent grasp of situation. Used TEMPOs to highlight time windows with highest threat. Threat ends by the tail end of the forecast at most sites. Lacy && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 78 62 85 67 / 70 60 10 10 FSM 80 65 85 66 / 70 80 30 10 MLC 78 64 85 67 / 80 60 0 10 BVO 79 59 84 65 / 70 60 0 0 FYV 77 60 81 63 / 70 80 30 10 BYV 77 61 80 64 / 70 80 30 0 MKO 78 61 84 66 / 80 60 10 10 MIO 76 60 81 65 / 80 80 10 0 F10 78 61 85 66 / 80 50 0 10 HHW 78 63 83 65 / 70 70 0 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...30  391 FXAK67 PAJK 150531 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 931 PM AKDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .UPDATE...Update to the discussion to include the 06z TAFs. && .PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 352 PM AKDT Tue Apr 14... SYNOPSIS... Key Messages: - Clear skies through Wednesday morning before clouds begin to move in preceding more precipitation Wednesday night into Thursday - Another front reaches the northern panhandle Thursday night, continuing precipitation through Friday and into the weekend SHORT TERM...Drier weather has spread across SE AK as a low dips south of the panhandle, bringing the arrival of spring in full force across the area. Clear skies will allow for warmer daytime high temperatures, with colder nighttime lows and patchy fog development through the early morning hours for parts of the southern and central panhandle. The primary changes made to the forecast were increases in northerly flow for the inner channels, alongside some upward adjustments to high temperatures for Wednesday. The ridge building over SE AK will keep precipitation at bay through most of Wednesday, with cloud cover steadily increasing through Wednesday evening as a shortwave manages to move over the ridge axis and into the panhandle. This shortwave will increase precipitation chances across the northern outer coast and eventually spread into the rest of the panhandle, though precipitation is expected to remain light and mostly rain. See the long term discussion for more information. LONG TERM.../Thursday through Sunday/...Minimal changes have been made to the long term forecast, with increased confidence in a shortwave trough bringing light precipitation to the northern panhandle Wednesday night into Thursday morning. This organized band of precipitation will move into the northern outer coast overnight and spread southeast through the early morning. Overnight temperatures are still expected to get cold enough for parts of the northern panhandle, mainly Yakutat and the northern highways at higher elevations, to see snow or a rain/snow mix with the initial band of precipitation into Thursday morning. These temperatures will increase to above freezing through daytime hours, which will limit any snowfall from accumulating through Thursday. Onshore flow will push showers over the panhandle after the band moves over, continuing on and off precipitation until late Thursday night when a more organized frontal band reaches the northern outer coast and pushes inland overnight. This front is expected to mainly impact the northern and central panhandle through early Friday morning, but moist onshore flow will continue precipitation through the rest of the panhandle during this period. Higher resolution models are showing a chance for parts of the southern and central panhandle to see some breaks in weather during this showery period on Friday, but many of the medium-range models depict more consistent moisture lingering over the entire panhandle. Temperatures should stay warm enough to keep precipitation as rain into the weekend, though rainfall rates will remain on the lighter side. The only real wind issue is expected near the typical hot spots from Thursday into Friday as the front moves inland, with Lynn Canal, southern Stephens Passage near Five Finger Lighthouse, and around Point Couverden potentially seeing small craft advisories through this period. Active weather is expected to persist over the northern panhandle, especially the northern outer coast around Yakutat, through Saturday morning before another low pressure system jumps up into the southern gulf which will bring consistent precipitation back to the rest of the panhandle. This is expected to continue through Saturday before another front moves in along the northern gulf coast, forcing the lingering precipitation to shift southeast out of the panhandle. Uncertainty still remains on the position of the low center and how strong this upcoming front will be, which will impact the timing of the previous system moving out and the next front moving in. The EC is thinking this front will move in through SUnday morning and blanket the entire panhandle, while the GFS is hanging back with the front moving in Sunday night and only reaching parts of the northern panhandle. Due to the northern location of this low, precipitation has the possibility of falling as snow overnight for northern locations such as Yakutat and the northern highways. Updates to the timing of this late weekend system will be made as the period gets closer. AVIATION...Showers continue to move out of the area this evening as the low that was producing showers dives to the south. With this, VFR conditions are left behind with clearing skies with the exception of a band of clouds over the southern panhandle. One concern with the clearing skies is the potential development of fog during the overnight hours this evening as temperatures cool. This will need to be monitored closely as some places are borderline for fog development. But this fog could also frost out with the dropping temperatures. Heading into tomorrow, clear conditions are expected through the morning before clouds from the next approaching system move across the Gulf to the NE Gulf coast and Baranof island area. With these clouds, MVFR conditions could be possible along the outer coast as well as some potential for light precipitation for the latter half of the TAFs. MARINE... Outer Coastal Waters: Westerly fresh to strong breezes continue across the outer coastal waters on Tuesday. Wave heights of 5 to 6 ft in the northern gulf and to 7 to 8 ft in the southern gulf will steadily decrease through Wednesday to around 4 and 6 ft, respectively. Winds will begin to turn more southeasterly as a system approaches through the northern gulf Wednesday night into Thursday. Inner Channels: Northerly winds have strengthened above what was previously anticipated, bringing N/S oriented channels up to a fresh to strong breeze (20-25 kt) through Tuesday. Winds are expected to diminish through Tuesday evening before flipping out of the south Wednesday morning and remaining light. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641-642-661>663. && $$ SHORT TERM...GFS/ZTK LONG TERM...ZTK AVIATION...SF MARINE...GFS/ZTK Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau  907 FXUS64 KSHV 150531 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1231 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1216 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible on Wednesday into Thursday. - A strong cold front will traverse the region on Saturday, delivering some widespread rainfall and some cooler temps. - Cooler and drier air will settle into the region by Sunday, followed by a slow warming trend into the middle of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1216 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Our region remains positioned under a moist southerly flow as a surface ridge remains in place over the Gulf. This will maintain a steady stream of humidity into the region. For Wednesday and Thursday, a series of upper-level disturbances will interact with this moisture and trigger a few rounds of convection. That being said, short range models have trended a little lower than previous models so I think the NBM could be too excited in regards to the coverage for today. The main area of concern for today will be for areas north of I-20 in east Texas, and then areas along and north of the I-30 corridor. The greatest risk for strong to severe storms today will be across portions of far northeast Texas, southeast Oklahoma, and some western Arkansas. These storms will be capable of producing mainly gusty winds and some hail, but we can't rule out the potential for a tornado or two either. Probably the more impactful event will come on Saturday as a strong cold front sweeps from northwest to southeast across the region. While there remains some differing opinions on timing, it looks like the bulk of the storms will come Saturday afternoon. This will have the potential to provide more widespread rainfall to the region, along with the potential for some strong storms, something we will continue to monitor. Dry air will follow behind the passing cold front, in addition to ushering in some slightly below normal temperatures for Sunday and into the start of next week before returning to more seasonable levels on Tuesday. /33/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 647 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 For the 15/00Z TAFs, widespread afternoon Cu will dissipate into the evening hours, while OVC skies build in across our far northwestern airspace, giving way to a mix of mid to high level clouds which which will persist through much of the night. As daybreak approaches, another round of MVFR CIGs will impact area terminals, gradually lifting and breaking into the day tomorrow. South winds will continue throughout at maximum sustained speeds of 7 to 12 kts, with gusts of up to 20 kts possible. /26/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1240 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Spotter activation will not be needed until late Wednesday. /24/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 86 67 87 67 / 0 20 10 0 MLU 88 65 89 66 / 0 10 20 0 DEQ 81 61 82 62 / 40 70 20 0 TXK 85 67 86 67 / 10 60 20 10 ELD 85 63 86 64 / 0 30 30 10 TYR 83 67 85 67 / 30 50 10 0 GGG 85 66 86 66 / 10 40 10 0 LFK 86 67 87 66 / 0 10 10 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...33 AVIATION...26  500 FXUS64 KMOB 150531 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1231 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Moderate to extreme drought, with little to no rain over the next 7 days, will exacerbate wildfire activity. - Patchy to areas of fog development, some of which could be dense, is possible over the next few nights. - A moderate rip current risk is expected for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches through Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1127 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 An upper trof advances across the Plains and much of the eastern states through Thursday night before exiting off into the western Atlantic on Friday. An upper ridge spanning much of the Gulf and the extreme southeastern states becomes oriented over the eastern Gulf up to near the Mid Atlantic coast through Wednesday, then retreats to the Gulf on Thursday. The upper ridge builds back into the region on Friday while a large upper trof advances across the western CONUS. This next upper trof amplifies while continuing across the eastern states this weekend, and an associated surface low is expected to bring a cold front through the forecast area Saturday night. Prior to the passage of the front, a surface ridge oriented along the northern Gulf coast will promote a warm southerly surface flow over the forecast area. Subsidence effects associated with upper ridge look to keep deep layer moisture sufficiently limited to continue with a dry forecast through Saturday. As the front moves through, have gone with slight chance to chance pops along and west of I-65 Saturday night with slight chance pops for Sunday. Dry conditions are expected to prevail for Monday into Tuesday. There is the potential for dense fog development overnight which will be monitored. Fog development is also possible again Wednesday night and Thursday night. Highs on Wednesday and Thursday will be mostly in the lower to mid 80s, and in the mid to upper 80s on Friday and Saturday. Highs on Sunday will be cooler and mostly in the lower to mid 70s then gradually trend to the mid to upper 70s by Tuesday. Lows tonight in the mid 50s to lower 60s trend to the upper 50s to lower 60s for Thursday night and Friday night, then turn cooler by Sunday night to range from the mid 40s well inland to the mid 50s at the coast. Overnight lows trend a bit warmer through Tuesday night to range from the lower 50s inland to around 60 at the coast. A moderate risk of rip currents is expected through Saturday. /29 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions will gradually give way to LIFR and VLIFR visbys and ceilings across most of the area excluding the immediate coastline. Conditions will quickly return to areawide VFR by mid morning. Winds will remain light out of the south becoming light and variable overnight. BB-8 && .MARINE... Issued at 241 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A light to moderate southeasterly flow continues through Wednesday, becoming more southerly by Thursday. Moderate to occasionally strong offshore flow returns by Sunday in the wake of a cold front. Small Craft Advisories may become necessary for Sunday and into Monday. /96 && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1127 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Ongoing drought conditions pose the potential to exacerbate wildfire activity for the next 7 days. While afternoon relative humidity values remain above critical levels through Sunday, drier air flows into the area on Monday which looks to result in relative humidity values dropping to 20-25% mostly over interior areas. /29 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 83 64 84 61 / 0 0 10 0 Pensacola 80 64 81 64 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 78 65 78 65 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 87 57 86 57 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 86 61 86 61 / 0 0 10 0 Camden 86 59 85 60 / 0 0 10 0 Crestview 86 57 85 57 / 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$  738 FXUS63 KFSD 150532 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 1232 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered shower with isolated thunderstorms will be possible by Wednesday afternoon and evening. However, severe weather is not expected. - Unseasonably warm temperatures and dry conditions combined with breezy southwest winds will lead to elevated to near- critical fire danger especially across southeastern SD. Additional concerns will be possible by Friday. However, increase rain chances could temper concerns. - A pattern shift will lead to a brief cool down over the weekend. While this could be accompanied by precipitation chances (30%-40%) mainly on Friday, there is some potential for multiple types so make to monitor your local forecast. && .UPDATE... Issued at 910 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Taking a look across the area, not much has changed from the initial discussion below. The area of scattered showers has slightly expanded with the line now extending from roughly Wagner, SD to Marshall, MN. However, with soundings continuing to show pockets of drier air; accumulations have been minimal if any. From here, we'll likely see this area of activity fester over the next couple hours before dissipating with the absence of diurnal heating. Looking into tonight, could see some additional development across areas along and south of U.S. Highway-20 as another weak wave interacts with the stationary boundary just southeast of our area. Nonetheless, with weakening instability; not expecting much besides some scattered light to moderate showers at times through daybreak on Wednesday. Heading into Wednesday, the main focus continues to be on the severe risk from the late afternoon to evening hours. Still thinking the area of focus will across northwestern IA and more specifically our far southeastern zones (Woodbury, Cherokee, Clay, Buena Vista, and Ida counties) as this is probably where the better shear (40-50kts) and instability (300-800 J/kg) will be collocated for our area. However, with 18z-00z guidance supporting another shift southeastwards; confidence continues to decrease in the severe weather potential for our area. Looking further into things, looks like the overall system slightly shifted eastwards pushing the axis of the strongest activity eastwards as well. With this in mind, not expected any stronger activity in our area. However, scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms could progress through the area for a short-time (4-8pm) before pushing into northcentral IA. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 233 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Radar is picking up on a stripe of showers extending from roughly Marshall, MN to Gregory, SD this afternoon, but most of this will not be reaching the ground due high cloud heights and dry air beneath said clouds. Scattered showers and storms will continue to develop off to our south and west over the next hour or so where the greater surface moisture is. Can't entirely rule out an elevated thunderstorm over northwest Iowa as soundings show a few hundred J/kg of CAPE lifted from around 750 mb this afternoon, but likely not enough for severe weather. However, small hail would be possible with mid level lapse rates around 7-7.5 C/km and 50-60 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear if a thunderstorm can develop. A boundary will be lifting northward across the region late tonight into Wednesday morning. The NAMNest is the fastest with this boundary arrival, bringing in storms to the Highway 20 corridor just before sunrise Wednesday, but this remains an outlier. What's more likely to occur is showers and storms not developing until the afternoon as the boundary continues drifting northward and instability increases due to daytime heating. Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible given mid level lapse rates greater than 8 C/km and bulk shear in the 45-55 kt range. The main threat with any of these afternoon storms would be large hail up to ping pong ball in size followed by damaging wind gusts to 60 mph. If we do get morning showers or storms tomorrow, then that may limit the ability for the atmosphere to recover in the afternoon, thus less afternoon instability. The best chance of an isolated severe storm Wednesday afternoon will be roughly along and east of a Spencer to Sioux City line. Any storms will push east of the area heading into Wednesday evening as the surface low and upper wave move out of the area. We are dry for Thursday, but this may come with the potential for critical fire danger in parts of the area. Southwesterly winds look to return for areas mainly along and west of I-29, which will help drop relative humidity values down to 25% and below Thursday afternoon. With temperatures in the 80s and winds gusting to 25 to 30 mph, a very high fire danger can be expected for most of the area. Uncertainty remains on how strong the winds will get and how far east these stronger winds make it, and if the grasses are starting to green up enough to prevent more widespread fire weather concerns. With that, held off on fire weather headlines for now until certainty grows. The main western US trough that has been helping to send all these impulses across the area over the past couple of days will finally move eastward heading into Friday, pushing a strong cold front into the area. Ahead of the front, warm and moister air will be favorable for thunderstorms, some of which could be strong to severe mainly east of I-29. Timing of the cold front will play a role in how much coverage of storms can be expected, with a faster passage meaning a lower threat and a slower passage leading to a greater threat of stronger storms. One thing is for more certain is the colder air that will follow this system, with lows expected to drop below freezing for most of the area by Saturday morning. This means some rain with this system may at least briefly turn to snow as the precipitation exits the area, but confidence is very low on this potential. Either way, expect much cooler temperatures heading into the Friday night through Sunday morning time frame. After this push of colder air, ridging aloft looks to return and thus a quick warming trend looks possible into early next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1228 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Mainly VFR conditions will persist this TAF period. While mostly clear conditions persist this evening, can't rule out additional showers to start the day on Wednesday especially across the Highway-20 corridor. Otherwise, additional showers and storms will be possible by Wednesday afternoon near KSUX. Added in a PROB30 group for the increased probabilities. Lastly, light and variable winds tonight will become light southerly winds during the day on Wednesday to end the TAF period. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for SDZ038>040-050-052>071. MN...None. IA...None. NE...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for NEZ013-014. && $$ UPDATE...05 DISCUSSION...Samet AVIATION...05  888 FXUS63 KOAX 150532 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1232 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe thunderstorms continue to impact portions of southeastern Nebraska and southwestern Iowa overnight. Large hail, gusty winds and torrential rainfall are expected. Training thunderstorms may result in flash flooding. - Additional thunderstorm chances are expected Wednesday and again on Friday. Continue to monitor the forecast for severe weather potential. - Much colder air arrives Friday night/Saturday morning. Lows both Saturday and Sunday mornings will fall into the 20s to low/mid-30s. Additionally, snow chances return to portions of the forecast area Friday night/Saturday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1111 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The forecast period begins with ongoing showers in northern Nebraska and a few strong to severe thunderstorms along the Kansas/Nebraska border. These thunderstorms have been kicking off along a boundary extending from northwest of Concordia, Kansas to northwest of Fremont, Nebraska to north of Council Bluffs, Iowa. DCAPE values are currently in the 800-1100 J/kg range. SBCAPE values range between 1000 to nearly 3000 J/kg. ML lapse rates range from 7-8C/km with LL lapse rates around 6.5-7.5C/km. The main concerns with this line of storms will be large hail and gusty winds. Also of note with tonight's convection is the potential for some flooding. Precipitable water values are around 1.0+ inches along and south of the boundary. Training thunderstorms along and south of the boundary could result in some locations getting quite a bit of rainfall. We will continue to monitor the potential through the night. Heading into Wednesday morning, the low will continue to lift east- northeast. Additional shower/thunderstorm activity is expected as moisture wraps around the low. A few strong to severe thunderstorms will again be possible with hail and wind being the main threats. An isolated tornado cannot be entirely ruled out. Thursday continues to look like our best drying out day as a ridge moves over the region. WAA sets up with highs returning to the upper 70s to mid-80s. Friday continues to be a day to watch closely as we move closer to the event. Low pressure will develop on the lee side of the Rockies Thursday night. An attendant cold front will slide into the region through the day with much colder air pushing in behind it. The cold front appears to be moving into the region slightly faster than yesterday's runs. Areas ahead of the front can expect highs ranging from the mid-70s to low 80s, while areas behind it may struggle into the mid-50s. Warm Gulf air will be streaming into the region through the day. An upper trough will also be arriving heading into the latter part of the day, bringing additional lift to the region. Strong to severe storms are expected to develop along the cold front Friday afternoon and evening with all hazards possible. In addition to the potential for severe storms ahead of the cold front, areas in northern Nebraska behind the front may receive a rain/snow mix, becoming all snow. The snow chances will push south of I-80 heading into daybreak, with rain/snow possible for areas from Friend to Hallam to just east of Council Bluffs. Precipitation chances should decrease heading into the afternoon with just a few showers remaining. Anyone with agricultural interests or outdoor activities will want to monitor the weekend forecast as colder temperatures and potential wintry weather returns to the forecast. Saturday morning temperatures have trended slightly colder, with northern Nebraska expecting temps in the upper 20s. Areas closer to the Kansas/Nebraska/Iowa/Missouri border will fall into the low to mid- 30s. Sunday morning lows will be even colder with more widespread 20s for lows and most areas falling below the freezing mark. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1223 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 KOFK: VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period. Showers are incoming from the southwest, expected to be on the doorstep of the terminal around or slightly after the onset of the forecast period. At this point, severe weather is not expected for northern Nebraska. Strong/severe storms continue toward the Kansas/Nebraska border. Expect winds to become northerly overnight, and northwesterly heading into tomorrow evening. There will be a chance for a few showers and storms Wednesday but confidence on initiation remains a little uncertain. KOMA: Showers and thunderstorms have remained south of the terminal thus far tonight and should stay that way for a few more hours. There is a possibility of some storm development on Wednesday, but exact location is still a bit up in the air. Have held off from putting a mention in prevailing conditions for the time being. Winds gradually turn north by daybreak and northeast through the morning as low pressure lifts north slightly. KLNK: Thunderstorms continue to remain along and south of the boundary located south of the terminal. The storms should mostly stay toward the Kansas/Nebraska/Missouri/Iowa borders overnight, although a rogue shower may try and lift up toward the terminal. Winds will shift to the north heading into Wednesday morning and the northwest by the afternoon. There is a chance a few isolated thunderstorms may develop Wednesday in eastern Nebraska, but confidence in location is on the lower end at this time. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for NEZ011-012-015>018-030>033-042-043. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ANW AVIATION...ANW  154 FXUS61 KRLX 150533 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 133 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation Forecast Discussion update. Also the complex of storms racing from east-central Ohio eastward into northern WV and southwestern Pennsylvania earlier have dissipated. 751 PM update... Aviation Forecast Discussion update. Also modified shower and storm chances this evening based on current radar trends. Currently monitoring a complex of storms racing across western Ohio this evening that may skirt by our far northwestern zones late tonight. The loss of daytime heating will yield a weakening trend for these storms over the next few hours, so activity may not be too impressive as they reach the Ohio River Valley. 149 PM update... A Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms has been expanded south to include the Metro Valley for this afternoon and evening. A slight risk now encompasses a portion of Perry County. Minor adjustments have been made to timing for Thursday night and Saturday night precipitation. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1.) Isolated to scattered strong thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening, primarily across southeast Ohio and northern West Virginia. A few storms may produce marginally severe wind gusts or hail. 2.) Record to near-record heat will persist through Saturday with afternoon highs reaching the mid to upper 80s, and isolated 90s possible mid-week. 3.) Elevated fire danger continues through the week due to anomalous heat, afternoon relative humidity values in the 20 to 30 percent range, breezy conditions and antecedent dry dead fuels. 4.) A strong cold front Saturday night into Sunday will end the heatwave, bringing a period of beneficial rain followed by much cooler temperatures and potential frost by Monday morning. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Deep-layer shear is increasing to modest levels near 35KT this afternoon as a weak shortwave impulse traverses the periphery of the southeastern ridge. While capping remains a concern near H700, diurnal heating is expected to erode inhibition across the north. Mixed-layer CAPE values are forecast to reach 500-1000 J/kg, supportive of multicell clusters. Given steep low-level lapse rates and a substantially dry sub-cloud layer with surface-to-H500 dewpoint depressions, marginally severe downburst winds are the primary threat, though semi-discrete cells could produce isolated large hail. The greatest risk area extends from the northern border south to the Metro Valley. Convection will diminish tonight with the loss of heating. KEY MESSAGE 2... An amplified long-wave pattern remains established with a strong 590dam ridge anchored over the Gulf and Florida. This will maintain an unseasonably warm airmass across the region through Saturday. High temperatures will average in the mid to upper 80s daily, roughly 15 to 20 degrees above normal. Record highs are specifically challenged Wednesday and again Friday/Saturday when H850 temperatures peak between 14C and 16C, supporting surface values near 90. Should stay mainly dry Wednesday, Friday and Saturday, a shortwave Thursday could bring some precipitation chances, but probably tough sledding for anything to survive when encountering the ridge and associated substantially dry low levels. Maintained what are probably a little optimistic central guidance PoPs. KEY MESSAGE 3... Fire danger remains enhanced through the week as drought conditions worsen with the lack of widespread rainfall. Afternoon minimum relative humidity will bottom out in the 20s and 30s through Saturday (minus today). Combined with daily southwest gusts of 20-25 mph and very dry fine fuels, rapid fire spread in leaf litter and dead grasses is possible. This will be somewhat mitigated by rapidly increased canopy coverage across the lowlands. KEY MESSAGE 4... A significant pattern shift occurs this weekend as a deep trough moves into the eastern U.S.. A strong cold front is timed to cross the area Saturday night, with PoPs peaking in the 50-60 percent range. While QPF has looked lean in previous runs, this system offers the best chance for meaningful rain in the next 7 days. Strong cold advection follows, with H850 temperatures dropping significantly by Sunday night. Highs will retreat to the 60s for Sunday and Monday, with areas subject to cold air drainage away from major rivers seeing frost potential by Monday morning. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... General VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period, with a drier day in store. South to southwest surface flow will hover around 5 kts during the overnight and early morning hours, before becoming breezy out of the southwest around 15 to 20kts once more during the day. Surface flow will then become light south to southwest again tonight. Moderate southwest flow aloft may induce low level wind shear during the overnight and pre-dawn hours, before mixing through to light to moderate southwest today. Flow aloft will become moderate southwest again tonight, which may eventually induce low level wind shear again. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Low level wind shear may or may not occur, or its nocturnal timing may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 04/15/26 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... VFR conditions will generally prevail through the week. However, brief periods of MVFR to IFR restrictions are possible within isolated showers and thunderstorms, with a higher likelihood of MVFR to IFR restrictions Thursday night and late Saturday. && .Climate... Unseasonably warm conditions continue through Saturday with daytime highs challenged at least Wednesday and Saturday. Forecast / Record High Temperatures (Observed / Record Highs Tue) ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Tue, 4/14 | Wed, 4/15 | Thu, 4/16 | Fri, 4/17 | ------------------------------------------------------------------------ CRW | 84 / 88 (2018) | 89 / 89 (1994) | 86 / 89 (2002) | 84 / 89 (1976) | HTS | 84 / 87 (1941) | 88 / 87 (2024) | 85 / 89 (2024) | 86 / 87 (1976) | CKB | 81 / 87 (2018) | 87 / 83 (1974) | 84 / 86 (2002) | 79 / 88 (1969) | PKB | 83 / 85 (1941) | 87 / 84 (2024) | 85 / 88 (2002) | 81 / 89 (1976) | BKW | 77 / 83 (2018) | 82 / 82 (2012) | 80 / 84 (2002) | 78 / 84 (1976) | EKN | 81 / 85 (2018) | 85 / 81 (2012) | 81 / 85 (2012) | 78 / 87 (1976) | ------------------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------- Sat, 4/18 | --------------------- CRW | 89 / 90 (2019) | HTS | 89 / 89 (1955) | CKB | 85 / 88 (1976) | PKB | 87 / 91 (1976) | BKW | 84 / 86 (1976) | EKN | 84 / 88 (1976) | --------------------- && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JP AVIATION...TRM CLIMATE...JP/TRM  077 FXUS63 KJKL 150534 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 134 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures will average 15 or more degrees above normal through the end of the week. Record or near record high temperatures are forecast today, Friday, and Saturday. - Showers/storms are possible Thursday and Thursday night with a passing disturbance, with potentially greater chances this weekend with a cold front. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1100 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2026 No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones. UPDATE Issued at 730 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2026 23Z sfc analysis shows high pressure in control of the weather over eastern Kentucky, though low pressure is near to the northwest. The pressure gradient is keeping the winds breezy for the northwest portion of the area but settling elsewhere. Skies are mostly clear with the storm chances staying well north of the Ohio River. Currently, temperatures are running in the mid to upper 70s. Meanwhile, amid southwest winds of 5 to 10 mph and higher gusts northwest, dewpoints are generally in the mid to upper 50s. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids but also to tamp down the PoPs through the night per the latest CAMs guidance. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the HWO, SAFs, and zones. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 410 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2026 As of mid afternoon, an upper level ridge was centered in the eastern Gulf and extended into the Southeast as well as into portions of the Atlantic. Meanwhile, southwest to west southwest flow aloft was in place across the OH Valley with a couple of disturbances passing within this flow. This southwest to west southwest flow was occurring between the ridging to the east and southeast of the Commonwealth and an upper trough entering portions of the Northern Plains to Central Rockies to Four Corners regions. At the surface, a frontal zone extends from New England to the Great Lakes to the Central Plains to CO. Meanwhile a sfc ridge of high pressure was centered in the Atlantic into the Southeast and north into the Southern Appalachians. A few showers were exiting Pike County and into WV and VA at this time associated with a disturbance in southwest flow. Some convective allowing models have had some redevelopment through early this evening in the north and east, though recent HRRR runs have backed off on that idea. At this point, opted to maintain slight chance pops roughly east of an Irvine to Hazard to Whitesburg line for the next few hours. Chances for any convection wane with the loss of daytime heating as mid level heights rise for late evening into a part of the overnight with neutral height tendencies to end the night. The sfc high will also remain in place tonight. As the night progresses and into the day on Wednesday, the upper ridge will remain from the Gulf into the Southeast to the coast of the Carolinas and VA while the mid and upper trough progresses into the Plains and Central Conus. This will leave eastern KY in the warm sector south of the frontal zone from the Northeast to the Great Lakes into the Central Conus with multiple waves moving along it. This mid and upper trough will continue to approach the region on Wednesday night as the axis of the mid and upper ridge shifts east. At the same time, sfc high pressure also remains in place into the Southeast and the Southern Appalachians. Clearing skies should occur during the evening into tonight, especially in regard to low and mid level clouds. This is favored by the pattern and 12Z HREF ensemble means. This should set the stage for a moderate ridge/valley split as sfc and upper ridging dominates. With afternoon dewpoints mainly in the mid to upper 50s, fog development appears more probable in the valleys than recent nights, especially if the forecast low to mid 50s low temperatures materialize. Any fog should lift and dissipate within a couple of hours after sunrise on Wednesday and give way to a milder day compared to today. The airmass should also be drier overall and min rh should trend down. Currently, forecast max temperatures of 86 at JKL and 85 at LOZ would tie records for the date. Another moderate magnitude ridge/valley temperature split follows for Wednesday night with sfc high pressure centered in the Atlantic, but extending into the Southeast and Southern Appalachians dominating. Low should again be in the low to mid 50s for valleys and low to mid mid 60s for ridges. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 249 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2026 The long term period opens Thursday with a shortwave over the Mid- Mississippi Valley and Upper Great Lakes. As this system lifts northeast throughout Thursday shower and thunderstorm chances increase heading into the late afternoon and early evening. Southwesterly winds and warm air advection allow for temperatures to warm into the 80s through the afternoon, some 10-15 degrees above normal. As showers taper off heading into Friday morning, temperatures cool into the low to mid 50s in valleys, and low 60s along ridge tops. A ridge of high pressure briefly builds over the area ahead of a deepening trough over the Rockies and Northern Plains. Relatively quiet weather is expected, with a mix of sun and clouds, and temperatures warming into the 80s. Because of the approaching system, clouds begin to increase overnight and through Saturday. Low temperatures Friday night cool into the 50s and low 60s. Saturday, the upper level trough will be over the Upper Great Lakes, with a warm front extending through the Great Lakes into the Mid- Atlantic, while a trailing cold front will extend through the Upper MidWest, the Mid and Lower Mississippi valleys, with showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of it. Shower and storm chances will increase over Eastern Kentucky from northwest to southeast through the afternoon into the evening and overnight hours. Showers and storms are then expected to taper off from northwest to southeast through Sunday. Temperatures Saturday, ahead of the cold front, will warm into mid to upper 80s for most, under southwesterly winds. At night, with winds becoming west to northwesterly, cold air advecting in behind the cold front will cool temperatures into the mid to upper 40s. Sunday, as remaining showers taper off, the cold front is modeled southeast of the area. Temperatures will be much cooler across the area, some 20-25 degrees cooler in fact, ranging in the low to mid 60s. Clouds should diminish through the afternoon as the trough begins to depart the area. However, Eastern Kentucky looks to be on the backside of the trough heading into Sunday night. With cold air still advecting in under light northwesterly winds and clearing skies, temperatures are expected to drop into the mid to upper 30s in the valleys and lower 40s elsewhere. High rises look to occur Monday, leading to mostly sunny skies, and highs in the low to mid 60s. Temperatures remain depressed under northwesterly winds. At night, temperatures cool into the upper 30s to near 40. Tuesday, a shortwave looks to skirt through the Upper Great Lakes and its main effects should remain north of the area. conditions will feature a mix of sun and clouds under southerly winds and seasonable temperatures warming into the low 70s. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday) ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT WED APR 15 2026 VFR conditions prevailed at the 06Z TAF issuance and should hold through the period. The region will remain in the warm sector between a sfc ridge of high pressure extending from the Southeast to the western Atlantic, and a frontal zone from New England across the Great Lakes and into the Plains. In between the sfc systems, south to southwest winds will average between 5 and 10 kts in more exposed locations with occasional higher gusts, with light and variable or southwest winds 5 kts of less at more sheltered TAF sites. Marginal LLWS has likely peaked between 03z and 06z and will diminish in intensity and move off to the north through the remainder of tonight. South to southwest winds should pick up again into the 5 to 12 kts range from around 14Z - once the nocturnal inversion mixes out - until around sunset this evening. Occasional gusts to around 20 kts are also expected . && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...GINNICK AVIATION...CMC  444 FXUS63 KDDC 150535 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1235 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Increased fire weather risk Thursday to at least Near-Critical conditions as dry south winds resume west of Highway 283 with a Fire Weather Watch in effect. - A more significant Critical Fire day likely west of the dryline on Friday (especially west of Highway 283) with severe weather risk east of the dryline (15% combined severe outlook east of Coldwater to Great Bend line). - Sub-freezing temperatures likely Saturday and/or Sunday morning as cold air mass drives south behind significant spring storm system. - Continued serious fire weather risk into next week with very dry conditions. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1233 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 The pattern is headlined by a deep trough situated over the Rockies and tilted westward with height. The corresponding surface low has just reach overhead of SW Kansas. The dryline has bisected Kansas and marginal storms formed along it earlier in the afternoon. With the exception of Friday, the CWA is forecasted to see more very dry weather and serious-to-critcal fire weather conditions all week. Wednesday has highs forecast to be around 10 degrees cooler than Tuesday before quickly warming back up on Thursday back into the 80s. Similar to Tuesday, marginally severe storms may clip the far southeastern portion of the CWA namely Barber county. Most, if not all, will occur completely east of the area. With the lower highs, the relative humidities will not drop as far with only far SW Kansas reaching 10-15%. However, even with winds blending the 75th-90th via ensembles, gusts remain shy of fire weather headline criteria. Thursday will be even drier with relative humidities as low as 7%. with nearly all of SW Kansas seeing <15%. The biggest question is if/where winds will be strong enough to warrant Red Flag Warning criteria. The current forecast only has areas near the CO/KS border nearing criteria. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect Thursday from noon to 9 PM CDT for the far SW Kansas. Winds are forecast from the south/southwest at 10-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. This will result in serious conditions due to the very dry conditions. Friday will again host serious fire weather conditions in addition to a severe weather risk across the eastern zones. Ahead of the advancing low pressure trough, coupled jets, a warm and moist airmass, and strong forcing will allow for a potentially widespread and significant severe weather threat. For the CWA's perspective, a critical aspect is where the dryline sets up. The current forecast is that the dryline will reside between Dodge City and Pratt. Ensembles have agreement situating it near the Highway 183 corridor. In the coming days, it will be integral to see if this moves, and if the storms will have enough time in the CWA to mature and reach severe thresholds before moving eastward out of the area. With the system, a strong cold front is forecast to drop temperatures significantly and pushing lows in the western counties towards or below freezing. Highs Saturday are only forecast to warm up to the 60s. Even with the cooler temperatures on Saturday, relative humidities are still forecast to be very dry down to 8-20%. The next few days are similar with the main focus solely on fire weather. The 8-20% relative humidity minimums are expected to linger deep into next week with winds from 10-20 mph and gusts up to 30 mph. With little to no moisture expected, the dry and fire weather conditions are forecast to stay for the foreseeable future and pose a tangible threat. Take proper fire weather precautions all week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1136 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions are expected for all sites through the TAF period. Some LLWS and sharp WSHFT have led up to the start of the period, but not forecast to last past 6Z. In the early hours, winds will settle out of the west/southwest at 10-15 KTS. By around 1Z winds will weaken drastically and become light and variable. Skies are forecast to be clear or mostly clear through the TAF period. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for KSZ061>063-074>077-084>087. && $$ DISCUSSION...KBJ AVIATION...KBJ  140 FXUS61 KCTP 150535 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 135 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Slight Risk severe weather outlook introduced for Wednesday north of PA Turnpike && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Summerlike warmth visits the region this week with near-record daily maxes and daily mins on tap for Wednesday and Thursday. 2) Several periods of showers and thunderstorms expected during the upcoming week, with the greatest amount of rainfall likely occurring across northern and western PA. Some storms may be severe, particularly on Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Summerlike warmth visits the region this week with near-record daily maxes and daily mins on tap for Wednesday and Thursday. Ensemble prediction systems are in good agreement showing a mean upper-level trough across the western CONUS, with downstream upper ridging taking hold from the Gulf states up the eastern seaboard. This will bring a notable warming trend, with daily highs ranging from the 70s-mid 80s across central PA from today onward. The latest forecast brings near-record temperatures across the region Wednesday morning through Friday morning, with lows both Wednesday and Thursday morning forecast to be warmer than our average highs this time of year (25 to 30 deg F above normal). Highs in the 70s and 80s will accompany lows in the 50s and 60s. Dewpoints will start to approach the 60F mark, so it will feel a bit humid but not overly uncomfortable. ---------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 2: Several periods of showers and thunderstorms expected during the upcoming week, with the greatest amount of rainfall likely occurring across northern and western PA. Some storms may be severe, particularly on Wednesday. In general for the workweek ahead, the storm track will run from SW to NE across the Great Lakes, with several waves of low pressure drifting into Ontario, CA. A frontal boundary will set up generally west to east across New York and keep unsettled weather in place across northwest PA in particular. This afternoon and evening, a few clusters of thunderstorms could tap into 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE to produce isolated pockets of damaging wind gusts. A lack of upper level forcing over Central PA means we will be dependent on surface-based organization associated with a potential MCS to produce a significant/sustained wind threat. The SPC issued an MCD around 2PM for a developing MCS over northeast Ohio. That complex will make its way into Central PA between 5 and 8PM, which is the most likely window for severe weather. The severe weather outlook climbs to Slight Risk for Wednesday, fueled in part by increasing low level heat and humidity as dewpoints rise to near 60F. Cool temps aloft will result in steep lapse rates with SBCAPE progged above 1000J/kg across much of central PA. With about 30 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear, discrete cells and clusters/linear segments will be possible. Over the course of the workweek, the probability for showers/storms will be highest in northwest PA. Locations that have been wet lately will continue to see more rain with 1-2 inches expected by Friday, while drought-stricken locations across the southeast part of our CWA will see less rainfall. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A relative minimum in thunderstorm activity is expected through the rest of the night, with only a few showers/isolated thunderstorms showing up on radar as of 06Z. These should largely stay away from any TAF sites, but may get close to UNV. Light winds along with some breaks in the clouds has allowed for locally dense fog to develop across parts of Central PA, and IFR/LIFR conditions are expected at BFD and IPT for much of the night. Confidence is low on visibility restrictions developing anywhere else. LLWS is expected at JST, AOO, and possibly UNV for the rest of the night with a 40 knot low-level jet overhead. An ongoing MCS over Michigan will bring the next round of thunderstorms to the region early this morning. These thunderstorms will weaken as they approach the area, but will enter northwest PA around 11Z. BFD and JST are most likely to see showers and thunderstorms as this line moves through. Conditions should improve to VFR through the morning behind this line for all of Central PA with mainly dry conditions and scattered mid and high clouds. West-southwesterly winds will be sustained at 10 to 15 knots with gusts to 25 knots. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected late this afternoon and into the evening. These storms will be capable of producing strong wind gusts, potentially in excess of 40 knots. Northern and western TAF sites are most likely to see showers and storms later today. Fog formation is possible as rain moves out of the area Wednesday night, with BFD and IPT again being the most likely to see fog. Outlook... Thu...VFR most of the time, but brief restrictions possible in hit and miss showers and thunderstorms, mainly across the north and west. Fri...Restrictions possible early, then improving to VFR in the afternoon. Sat-Sun...Restrictions in SHRA possible. && .CLIMATE... Record high daily maxes and mins are possible this week as summerlike warmth visits the region. Here's a look at the records as they stand right now, with a * indicating that the forecast is equal to or greater than the record. Record High Daily Max / Daily Min... For Harrisburg: April 15: 87* (1941) / 61* (2023) April 16: 89 (2002) / 63* (1941) April 17: 91 (2002) / 60* (2002) For Williamsport: April 15: 86 (1994) / 57* (2023) April 16: 90 (2002) / 55* (2023) April 17: 91 (2002) / 58* (1896) && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Banghoff KEY MESSAGES...Banghoff/Colbert DISCUSSION...Banghoff/Colbert AVIATION...Bauco CLIMATE...Colbert  922 FXUS62 KTAE 150537 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 137 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 136 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Patchy fog is possible Wednesday morning over the Florida Panhandle and Southeast Alabama, mainly for areas west of the Ochlockonee River. If encountering fog while driving, slow down, use low beam headlights, and increase braking distance. - Little or no rain is expected through this weekend. Drought conditions will worsen. Fire concerns will remain elevated. Use extreme caution with any outdoor burning. Please heed burn bans where they are in effect. - Above normal temperatures will continue through this weekend, with lower 90s likely late this week. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Wednesday) Issued at 227 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Upper level ridging is firmly in place over much of the SE, with little change expected in the positioning of this ridge through the next couple of days. Under this dominant ridge, daytime high temperatures will be well-above average in the upper 80s. Some locations will likely reach and/or exceed 90F later this week, especially in our eastern counties away from the coast. Overnight low temperatures this week will be consistently in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Patchy fog is likely the next couple of mornings as winds drop to near calm overnight under the ridge. Otherwise, hot and dry conditions in addition to the ongoing drought will lead to increased fire weather concerns this week, even if surface winds underneath the ridge will be low. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 227 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The first indications of a pattern change comes later this week. A weakening trough will swing well to our north on Friday, helping to start to break down the SE ridge. A much more energetic trough follows a similar path late this weekend, fully pushing out the SE ridge this time. The associated frontal passage with the latter of the two systems will bring lower temperatures early next week, with daytime highs likely in the upper-70s/lower-80s on Monday. Despite the increased troughing, little-to-no precipitation is currently expected with either system as the greatest forcing will remain well to our north and the airmass overtop of the region will be very dry. Drought conditions will persist or worsen through the forecast period. While still far out at this time, model guidance is indicating an extremely dry post-frontal environment starting next Monday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 136 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 The main concern overnight is the potential for fog, mainly at ECP and DHN. Fog is expected to develop near those locations early Wednesday morning, and dense fog cannot be ruled out. IFR to LIFR conditions are currently shown in a TEMPO group. Fog is expected to lift by mid-morning on Wednesday with VFR conditions prevailing afterwards. && .MARINE... Issued at 227 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Surface high pressure will firmly be in place over the next few days. Light to gentle winds out of the south/southeast are expected over the waters this week, with wave heights at around 1 to 2 feet. Seabreezes will likely develop and push inland each afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 227 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Hot and dry conditions will characterize the rest of the work week as strong upper level ridging persists over the region. Transport winds will be light (5-10mph) and out of the south/southwest through the forecast period. Dispersions will be moderate today but will increase on Wednesday, primarily for the western half of the CWA. Higher dispersions on Thursday are limited to our northernmost counties with moderate dispersions elsewhere. Afternoon minimum RHs will likely dip into the high-20%/low-30% each day this week. Considering this alongside the antecedent drought conditions and hot high temperatures expected, fire weather concerns can be expected each day despite the weak transport winds. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 227 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 No rain is expected for the next several days. Drought conditions will continue or worsen. For more local drought information & statements, visit the following websites: weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 88 58 88 58 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 81 63 81 62 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 87 58 86 59 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 89 60 88 59 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 90 58 90 58 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 88 56 87 57 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 77 63 77 62 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ early this morning for FLZ114-115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Montgomery LONG TERM....Montgomery AVIATION...Dobbs MARINE...Montgomery FIRE WEATHER...Montgomery HYDROLOGY...Montgomery  067 FXUS64 KBRO 150538 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1238 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1237 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Key Messages: - Breezy conditions will continue this week. - A moderate risk of rip currents will likely prevail through the week. - Temperatures above average through this week with a cool down late this weekend with the passage of a cold front. - Unsettled conditions return this weekend in association with a cold front moving through Texas. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1013 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 High pressure over the Gulf into the southeastern US will maintain warm, breezy, and dry conditions through the week. Temperatures will continue to warm through Saturday with low to mid 90s expected for much of the region by Thursday. Coastal areas will remain in the upper 70s to upper 80s. Moderate to strong southeasterly winds will continue this week with Friday being the breeziest day. While we look to stay below Wind Advisory criteria, this will be something we monitor closely. As we head into the weekend, a cold front moving through Texas will bring rain and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon through Monday. The aforementioned front will move through Deep South Texas on Sunday which will also be the day of our highest rain chances, which have gone up slightly to 50-60%. Cooler temperatures are expected in wake of the front with highs only in the 70s for Sunday. A moderate risk of rip currents is expected through Wednesday and will likely increase by this weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1237 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 MVFR to VFR will prevail at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours. Moderate to breezy winds and mostly cloudy skies will also occur. && .MARINE... Issued at 1013 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Generally favorable marine conditions are expected on the waters off the lower Texas coast with moderate winds and waves. Could see some caution conditions at times each day through the weekend due to an enhanced pressure gradient. Headed in the late week, winds will increase ahead of a frontal boundary which could lead to Small Craft Advisories on Friday for the Laguna Madre and nearshore waters. In wake of a frontal passage on Sunday winds will pick up again with Small Craft Advisories likely. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 86 73 88 73 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 89 70 90 70 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 91 74 93 74 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 91 72 95 72 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 79 74 80 74 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 85 71 86 72 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$  825 FXUS64 KMRX 150539 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 139 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 129 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Well above normal temperatures expected through this week into the first half of the weekend. Record highs are possible. - Chance of showers Thursday evening, but light amounts will mean little relief from the worsening drought and fire weather conditions. - Increasing confidence of showers with a cold front passage Saturday night/Sunday morning, followed by cooler temperatures next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 115 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Hot and dry conditions continue to be the main weather story for the area, thanks to a large ridge of high pressure over the Gulf and SE CONUS. Today and Wednesday, high temperatures will be close to record highs with a SW flow, subsidence under the ridge, and limited cloud cover. Low RH values will be of concern for fire weather interests, bottoming out in the 25-35% range both today and Wednesday for most locations, but for the most part SW winds will not be higher than the 5-15 mph range. The mid/upper ridge axis gets pushed east on Thursday as a shortwave trough approaches from the west. This system brings a chance of showers Thursday evening, but weak dynamic forcing and limited moisture will result in light QPF amounts (< 0.1 on average) and little impact on the ongoing drought conditions and wildfires. There is some elevated instability that will support some thunderstorms, mainly in our Plateau counties. The ridge will build back Friday behind the exiting shortwave trough. High temperatures will be approaching records again on Friday and Saturday. Better rain chances may arrive for Saturday night into Sunday as models show a deep trough developing over the Plains that could push a cold front through our area. Model agreement, run-to-run consistency, and jet-induced dynamic forcing lead to increasing confidence of rain chances. Behind the front, cooler temperatures are expected as highs should be closer to normal, or slightly below, for Sunday and Monday. Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 04-14 87(2010) 86(1887) 85(1938) 88(2017) 04-15 87(2006) 87(1936) 85(1945) 86(2024) 04-16 89(2002) 87(1896) 87(2002) 88(2002) 04-17 91(1955) 90(1896) 85(2002) 88(1955) 04-18 90(2002) 90(1896) 87(2002) 89(2002) && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 129 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Latest KMRX VAD Wind Profile data suggest southwest winds near 25 to 30 kts are occurring around 2kft. This aligns well with latest 925mb mesoanalysis data, thus, carried some LLWS for the morning hours with this latest TAF issuance. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail. Southwesterly sfc winds will increase in a typical diurnal fashion today. Wind speeds predominantly around 10kts, with occasional gusts in the 15-20kt range. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 87 60 87 60 / 0 0 10 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 86 60 85 60 / 0 0 10 30 Oak Ridge, TN 86 58 85 59 / 0 0 20 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 84 56 83 57 / 0 0 10 30 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...DGS AVIATION...KRS  981 FXUS61 KAKQ 150540 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 140 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Added additional daily records for 4/17 (Fri), 4/18 (Sat) to the Climate Section. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Record to near-record high temperatures prevail through Thursday. 2) Continued dry with fire weather concerns expected for much of the week. 3) Well above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather continue through Saturday. A stronger cold front brings a chance for showers on Sunday, but it does not look at all like a widespread soaking rain. Many areas likely see less than 0.10". && .DISCUSSION... As of 315 PM EDT Tuesday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Record to near-record high temperatures prevail through Thursday. Surface high pressure has settled well offshore of the Carolina coast, with strong upper ridging situated from the Gulf coast to Southeast CONUS. High pressure will build into the western Atlantic during the next day or so. The resulting persistent return flow will lock in a very warm, dry SSW flow regime through Thursday. This Bermuda High setup, more typical of early to mid summer, will allow for record to near record high temperatures through Thursday. The primary difference from summer will be MUCH lower dew pts which will keep apparent temperatures at or below actual air temperatures, which is far more comfortable than typical summertime conditions. As of mid aftn, temperatures are primarily ranging through the mid to upper 80s with dew pts in the 50s and corresponding apparent T values in the 80s. Some places will likely reach ~90F for highs which would challenge daily records. Lows tonight will be in the low-mid 60s for most, with highs Wed-Thu a few degrees above today's values (into the low-mid 90s) given increasing 925-850 mb temperatures and continued deep mixing. Highs will be a few degrees cooler on the eastern shore. The current records at our long- term climate sites noted in the climate section below. KEY MESSAGE 2...Continued dry with fire weather concerns expected for much of the week. With high pressure dominating our weather pattern, and no appreciable precipitation expected through the end of the week, fire weather concerns will remain an issue to monitor for much of the rest of the week. After collaboration with VA State Forestry, have issued an Increased Fire Danger Statement for portions of VA where aftn gusts to around 20 mph are co-located with min RH values at or below 30%, along with highs around 90F. This generally includes all of central and east central. Similar conditions are likely Wed-Thu with minimum RH values averaging 25-30% inland and 30-35% closer to the coast through Thursday, keeping fire wx conditions around critical fire wx thresholds through much of the week. KEY MESSAGE 3...Well above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather continue through Saturday. A stronger cold front brings a chance for showers on Sunday, but it does not look at all like a widespread soaking rain. Many areas likely see less than 0.10". Slightly cooler mid 80s to around 90F on Friday as a weak shortwave brings more cloud cover to the area. Moisture return ahead of this feature will be meager, so only isolated showers are possible on Friday with that shortwave (mainly confined to the far N). Rain amounts will likely be a few hundredths of an inch at best, and most areas will stay dry (latest 12Z models are drier than last night's 00Z runs as well). Very warm/hot and dry (lower 90s inland) for Saturday as upper heights build again. The global models and ensembles show continuity and high confidence that a stronger front crosses the area on Sunday as low pressure tracks into Ontario/Quebec. While moisture return ahead of this front will be better than what is expected on Friday, it does not look promising for a widespread soaking rain. Isolated to perhaps scattered showers are possible during the day, with a low chc of a tstm. Ensemble probs of 0.10"+ of rain are 40-60% across the NE 1/2 of the area, and even lower for interior NE NC and south central VA. Cooler wx returns behind the front early next week, with highs mainly in the 60s to near 70F and lows down into the upper 30s to mid 40s for Mon night/Tue AM. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 140 AM EDT Wednesday... High pressure offshore of the region will favor VFR conditions through the 06z/15 TAF period and beyond. Skies will be mostly clear outside of high clouds through the period. SW winds average 5 to 10 knots this morning, increasing to ~10 to 12 knots by midday/aftn with gusts to around 20 knots. Outlook: VFR and dry conditions are expected to prevail through Saturday. Mainly S-SW winds also prevail throughout the forecast period, as high pressure settles over the western Atlantic. && .MARINE... As of 245 PM EDT Tuesday... -Generally sub-SCA through the end of the week with a brief surge in winds Thurs night -Stronger, more prolonged SCA conditions possible late in the weekend into early next week. High pressure anchored offshore and ridging in over the east coast will remain more or less in place for the next few days. Benign marine conditions prevail today and through the rest of the mid week period. SW-S winds will stay at 10-15kt through at least Thurs evening. Daytime heating and mixing will lead to winds becoming gustier over land, so nearshore waters will also be gusty during the day with gusts up to 20kt. Seas will stay around 3ft during this time period with waves in the bay/rivers at 1-2ft. A weak cold front moves in over the waters Thurs night into Friday. Pressure gradient tightens slightly ahead of it, resulting in a brief bump up in the winds overnight. Expecting winds to pick up to 15-20kt with highest winds over the open ocean. Seas will build to 4ft and perhaps 5ft out near 20nm. Cannot rule out a brief SCA Thurs night, but confidence is low given the unimpressive front and marginal conditions that are forecast. And on that note, not expecting a post-frontal surge either. Looking ahead to the weekend, forecasting benign conditions Friday and Saturday. A stronger front is expected Sunday that may bring strong SCA conditions. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temps for 4/14 - 4/18 Record Record Record RecordRecord High/Yr High/Yr High/Yr High/Yr High/Yr Location 4/14 4/15 4/16 4/174/18 -------- ---- ----- ------ ------ ------ Richmond 90 (1977) 92 (1941) 93 (1976) 96 (1976) 95 (1976) Norfolk 90 (1941) 90 (2024) 91 (1976) 93 (2002) 95 (1896) Salisbury 87 (1941) 87 (1941) 89 (1976) 92 (2002) 90 (1976) Eliz. City 90 (1941) 91 (1941) 90 (1941) 92 (1976) 91 (1941) Record High Min Temps for 4/14 - 4/18 Record Record Record Record Record High High High High High Min T/Yr Min T/Yr Min T/Yr Min T/Yr Min T/Yr Location 4/14 4/15 4/16 -------- ---- ----- ------ Richmond 65 (1899) 64 (2018) 64 (1912) 65 (1912) 64 (2002) Norfolk 68 (2019) 68 (1941) 66 (2017) 68 (2002) 68 (2002) Salisbury 65 (1945) 64 (2002) 63 (2017) 64 (2002) 65 (1918) Eliz. City 68 (2019) 68 (1974) 68 (1994) 68 (1945) 65 (2002) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from 11 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ012. VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from 11 AM EDT this morning through this evening for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075-076-079>083- 087>090-092-093-509>522. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ERI/LKB AVIATION...AJB/ERI MARINE...AC CLIMATE...MAM  123 FXUS61 KBOX 150540 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 140 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes, the forecast remains on track. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered late day and evening showers and thunderstorms with a low risk of severe weather. - Summerlike warmth continues Wednesday away from the coast, but backdoor front will bring cooler temps to portions of eastern MA. Another round of scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms with a low risk for severe weather. - Temperatures trend milder western MA/CT and cooler in eastern MA/RI Thurs-Sat, with periods of showers/t-storms mainly focused on Fri. - Strong cold frontal passage Sunday ushers in cooler temperatures for early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Scattered late day and evening showers and thunderstorms with a low risk of severe weather. Latest hi-res guidance has delayed onset of scattered convection moving into SNE to late in the day and this evening. We still have height rises into early afternoon then weak height falls developing late today and this evening as a weak shortwave passes to the north. There are favorable mid level lapse rates approaching 7 C/km and there is sufficient 0-6km shear for storm organization. However, instability is marginal with MLCAPES generally 500-1000 J/kg and with potential convection delayed into the evening instability will be diminishing. Also forcing for ascent is marginal as well. So while there are some conflicting signals for severe weather, if robust convection can get going to the north and west later this afternoon favorable deep layer shear should be enough to support a few strong to severe storms with the timing mainly from 5-10 pm across northern and western MA where HREF is showing some updraft helicity tracks. Strong to damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat but can't rule out some hail given steep mid level lapse rates and favorable deep layer shear. KEY MESSAGE 2...Summerlike warmth likely to continue Wednesday away from the coast, but backdoor front will bring cooler temps to portions of eastern MA. Another round of scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms with a low risk for severe weather. Backdoor front expected to slip southward into NE MA Wed morning and eventually move through rest of eastern MA by late afternoon but timing is uncertain. 925 mb temps 20-21C south and west of the boundary which will result in temps reaching low-mid 80s, especially across CT and portions of central/W MA which will remain on the warm side of the boundary. Meanwhile, temps will likely fall into the 50s in NE MA with temp forecast uncertainty highest across interior E and SE MA which will be close to the boundary. It is possible temps here warm well into the 70s and possibly lower 80s before the front moves through then falling sharply by late afternoon but this will depend on the timing of the front. Another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms expected Wed afternoon into the evening as another low amplitude shortwave approaches. Environment is fairly similar to today with MLCAPES 500- 1000 J/kg although mid level lapse rates are less favorable. 0-6 km shear is up to 40 kt which is quite favorable for storm organization. Hi-res CAMs do show varying areal coverage of convection developing into the afternoon in the interior then eventually becoming focused near the south coast during Wed night. CSU machine learning probs and Nadocast showing low risk for severe across the interior so can't rule out a few strong to severe storms again with damaging wind the primary threat. HREF severe wind probs are a bit lower tomorrow and focused across CT. KEY MESSAGE 3...Temperatures trend milder western MA/CT and cooler in eastern MA/RI Thurs-Sat, with periods of showers/t-storms mainly focused on Fri. Challenging temperature and rain chances forecast Thurs and Fri as unseasonably warm temperature profiles aloft are met with quasi- zonal mid-level flow with several hard-to-time impulses (some convectively-influenced) moving through the WSW flow. There is also the potential for a backdoor frontal boundary to bring significantly cooler temperatures to at least eastern and northeast MA, but potentially as far westward as central MA and RI. Ended up keeping a rather generic/broad-brush to PoPs, with lesser chances on Thurs and most of the day could be dry. Better chances could exist on Fri with NWP showing a stronger/more-coherent shortwave disturbance moving in. For temps, modified NBM highs Fri and Sat to bring cooler temps (mid 60s to low 70s) along the eastern MA coast to RI/central MA, but highs should end up well into the 70s to lower 80s in western MA/CT under SW winds. Highs are somewhat cooler on Fri with more cloud cover and periods of showers/t-storms, in the 60s to low 70s. By Sat, we become more entrenched in cooler onshore flow with highs in the 50s to mid 60s. The potential exists for large temperature busts given placement of the backdoor frontal boundary. KEY MESSAGE 4...Strong cold frontal passage Sunday ushers in cooler temperatures for early next week. Strong cold front moves in for the latter half of the weekend bringing a risk for showers and thunderstorms for Sunday. Passage of this front will usher in an unseasonably cool airmass (850 mb temps as low as -8C Mon). Expect cool temperatures more typical of early/mid March vs mid-April, with highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s, but blustery conditions will make it feel quite a bit cooler. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through 12z...High Confidence VFR. W to SW winds around 10 kt through 12z this morning. Today...High Confidence in trends. VFR through about 16-18Z, then MVFR cigs. Sea-breeze likely at BOS again between 15-17Z. Additional rounds of SHRA/TSRA possible tomorrow afternoon and evening, though exact timing is still a bit uncertain. Tonight...High Confidence. MVFR/IFR ceilings with SHRA and light and variable winds. Some lingering TSRA possible through 03z. Tomorrow...Moderate Confidence. Starting off IFR/MVFR, then improving to VFR. Some marginal MVFR cigs may linger with a continued low chance SHRA for much of northern MA. Isolated TSRA further to the west cannot be ruled out. KBOS Terminal... High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal... High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/... Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. SCA for outer southern waters through tonight for marginal seas. S- SW winds will gust to 20+ kt at times, shifting to E over NE MA waters during Wed with SW flow persisting over southern waters. Variable winds Wed night less than 20 kt, mostly N-NE over NE MA waters and SW over southern waters. Late night and early morning fog possible. Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/... Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. Saturday through Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. && .CLIMATE... Upcoming record highs: Tue 4/14 Boston 83 in 2023 Hartford 96 in 2023 Providence 87 in 2023 Worcester 90 in 2023 Wed 4/15 Boston 82 in 1896 Hartford 88 in 1941 Providence 82 in 1938 Worcester 85 in 1941 && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for ANZ255- 256. && $$ DISCUSSION...KJC/Loconto AVIATION...Dooley/Hrencecin/RM MARINE...KJC CLIMATE...Nocera  504 FXUS66 KLOX 150541 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 1041 PM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .SYNOPSIS...14/125 PM. Dry and warmer weather is expected for the remainder of this week. Gusty northerly winds will develop over much of the area on Thursday, shifting to northeast and becoming focused over Los Angeles and Ventura Counties on Friday. The next chance of rain will be next Monday. && .SHORT TERM (TUE-FRI)...14/1037 PM. ***UPDATE*** High temperatures rose to the low to upper 60s near the coasts, and to the 70s over the valleys and interior under mostly sunny skies today. Breezy winds affected the coasts north of Point Conception with gusts from 25 to near 35 mph, and for the mountains, Antelope Valley foothills and the I-5 Cooridor. Currently, gusty sundowner winds are affecting western portions of the Santa Ynez Range and coastline, with gusts as high as 48 mph measured. The current wind advisory for this area looks on track, and is set to expire at 3AM tonight as winds drop off throughout the area. Winds should increase Thursday, shifting to the north to northeast. Will likely need some wind advisories by Thursday evening for favorable valleys and mountains. This will also lead to warming high temperatures, especially for the coasts and coastal valleys. ***From Previous Discussion*** Some gusty Sundowner winds expected across southwest Santa Barbara County this evening and a wind advisory is in effect there. Otherwise, just clear with cool temperatures overnight with lows mostly in the 40s, except 50s along the LA Coast. Another quiet day of weather on tap Wednesday with heights slowly rising following the departure of the recent storm. Daytime temperatures will increase 1-3 degrees but otherwise not much change from today. An upper low will take an inside track through the Great Basin Wednesday night into Thursday. Initially this will create gusty north to northeast winds through the mountains early Thursday morning. Will likely need some wind advisories for those. And some winds will filter down into the Santa Clarita Valley and northern portion of the San Fernando Valley as well as the Antelope Valley. That inside slider system will move into Utah Friday setting up a Santa Ana wind event across LA/Ventura Counties. Deterministic gradients are on the lower side, mostly under 4mb offshore, however many of the ensembles are as much as twice that and the NAM is showing 50kt of northeast wind at 850mb. And the lower res Euro ensemble is indicating 30-50mph winds across the typical Santa Ana wind areas. Expecting to see the deterministic solutions to nudge towards the stronger ensembles over the next day or two. So Friday should be a warm and dry day with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s and gusty Santa Ana winds across portions of LA/Ventura Counties. .LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...14/223 PM. Friday's Santa Ana is expected to mainly be a one day event, though offshore flow will linger into Saturday. Upper support will be mostly gone as well so any left over offshore winds will be isolated and of minimal impact. Temperatures will still be climbing Saturday, with some warmer valleys reaching the upper 80s intermediate areas like Downtown LA in the low to mid 80s. Most coastal areas will be in the upper 60s and 70s. On Sunday offshore flow will be turning onshore as another cold and at least partially cut off upper low approaches northern California. Still another warm day inland with highs in the 80s but cooler near the coast with an earlier sea breeze arrival. This is going to be a tricky system to forecast as models are struggling to figure out how far south it will move and at what speed. There is still a chance of rain Monday, though it could slip to as late as Tuesday or Wednesday, or miss the area all together. Cooler temperatures are expected through the first half of next week, though the rate of cooling will depend on the movement of the upper low. && .AVIATION...15/0540Z. At 0525Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion. High confidence in VFR conditions for all sites except for: KPRB 30 percent chc LIFR conds 11Z-16Z. KSBP - 20 percent chc LIFR conds 09Z-17Z; KSMX 25 percent chc no low clouds; KSMO and KLAX 30 percent chc LIFR conds 13Z-16Z and KLGB 30 percent chc no low clouds. KLAX...Overall, moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30 percent chc 2SM BR 13Z-16Z. No significant easterly wind component is expected. KBUR...High confidence in CAVU TAF. No wind issues are expected. && .MARINE...14/601 PM. For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Friday, high confidence in a combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas. On Thursday and Thursday night, there is a 40-50% chance of GALE force winds. Most likely across far northern waters & south of Pt Conception. For Saturday through Sunday, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds. For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Thursday, high confidence in SCA level winds during the afternoon and evening hours. 20% chance of GALE force wind gusts Thursday evening. For Friday through Sunday, there is a 20-30% chance of SCA level winds during the afternoon and evening timeframe. For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. High confidence in SCA level winds across western portion of the Santa Barbara Channel thru Thursday night. On Friday, there is a 50-70% chance of SCA level northeast winds from Ventura south to Santa Monica and potentially across the San Pedro Channel. For Saturday thru Sunday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA criteria. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT Wednesday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Phillips/MW AVIATION...Rorke MARINE...Black SYNOPSIS...MW weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox  044 FXUS63 KDLH 150541 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1241 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Additional dense fog overnight into Wednesday morning, especially for shoreline counties and the MN Borderlands. - Scattered thunderstorms likely on Friday. A few storms could be strong to severe. - Colder late Friday and into Saturday, with rain changing to snow possible. Any snow accumulation would be light. The chance for travel impacts is low. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1259 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Current Conditions/Today and Tonight: Early afternoon radar and and satellite imagery showed an area of showers with embedded thunderstorms across the arrowhead of Minnesota. These were located ahead of a compact little shortwave trough that was skirting along the MN/CA border. For the rest of the afternoon and evening, expect dry conditions as this system exits to the east. Meanwhile, wind remain fairly light under the influence of a baggy pressure gradient, and that will set the stage for another night of low clouds and fog. Wednesday/Thursday: A couple of days of dry and warm weather are in store for the Northland on Wednesday and Thursday. Wednesday could start out cloudy and foggy, so temperatures depend on how quickly we can clear out. On Thursday, an area of low pressure will organize across the High Plains, and this will bring southerly winds across the region. Current humidity forecast is around 30 to 35 percent, so will have to watch the trends for fire weather concerns. Otherwise expect spring-like weather with highs in the 60s to near 70, except along Lake Superior. Friday/Monday: This low pressure system across the High Plains will track eastward on Friday as a longwave trough amplifies over the central CONUS. That will bring surge of warm and moist air across the Upper Midwest, while drier moves on top of it. This will set the stage for thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening ahead of an approaching cold front. As of now, the most likely area for storms is along I-35 and east. A few storms could be strong to severe owing to the favorable deep layer shear and 1000 to 2000 J/kg of instability. The primary threat will probably be severe hail, but there is a wind threat given the unidirectional shear profile. In the wake of this front, expect much cooler temperatures as northwest wind ushers a return arctic air. Meanwhile the overall storm system will become better organized, and an area of deformation precipitation will develop Friday night into Saturday. Thermal profiles support a rain-to-snow transition. Any snow accumulation should be less than an inch of slushy wet snow on grassy surfaces. One would expect lesser snow amounts if this falls during the day on Saturday given the April sun angle and warm pavement temperatures. Snow will end Saturday night, but the cool air will last through the weekend with highs in the lower 40s Sunday and lower 50s Monday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1241 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Widespread fog will expand through early this morning leading to IFR to LIFR conditions at all terminals. Fog should burn off with conditions returning to VFR through this morning and midday. Another round of fog could be possible tonight, most likely for DLH, HIB, and HYR. Expect mostly light and variable winds through today. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 212 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Scattered rain and thunderstorms are no longer expected today, as they have shifted to the northeast. There is still dense fog. For the next few days, winds will be light. Waves will be less than 2 feet both Wednesday and Thursday. On Friday, southerly winds will bring high waves along the north shore. A strong cold front will bring northwest winds Friday night into Saturday, with waves 3 to 5 feet or higher, especially along the south shore on Saturday. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 212 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The fire weather risk is low today and Wednesday. The rest of today will have high RH today due to low clouds and high RH. On Wednesday, RH will be a bit lower, but winds will remain light. On Thursday, southerly winds will increase to around 20 mph and RH values will drop to around 30 to 35 percent. Southerly winds will be stronger on Friday, but humidity will increase. A cold front will pass through on Saturday and bring northwest winds and cooler temperatures for the weekend. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for MNZ010>012- 019>021-037. WI...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for WIZ001>004. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for LSZ140>148- 150. Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for LSZ142. && $$ DISCUSSION...NLy / MPX AVIATION...Levens MARINE...NLy / MPX FIRE WEATHER...NLy / MPX  170 FXUS66 KOTX 150542 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1042 PM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A robust cold front to deliver valley rain, mountain snow, and gusty winds through Thursday. - Drier and more seasonal temperatures Friday and Saturday. - Rain chances return Sunday and Monday. && .SYNOPSIS... A cold front passage overnight into Wednesday will bring lowland rain, mountain snow, and breezy to windy conditions. Some snow will make it down to the lowlands Wednesday night into Thursday morning on the tail end of the mid-week system. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Thursday: A Gulf of Alaska Low continues pushing a decent amount of moisture and cooler air into the Inland Northwest. Precipitable water amounts are around half an inch (120-140 percent above normal). The colder air will drop the snow levels from 4000ft to 2000ft through Wednesday. Mountain snow will continue with valleys along the Cascades and northern valleys changing from rain to rain/snow mix or snow by early Wednesday morning. Snow accumulation will be confined to above 3500ft as ground surface temperatures will be too warm for snow accumulation. Winter weather advisories and a warning have been issued for many of the regions mountain passes through Thursday. Stevens Pass has a 25-75 percent probability snow range of 11-13 inches. Sherman has a 4-5 inches range. Lookout has a 9-14 inch range. Snoqualmie Pass has a 12-14 inch range. Models are indicating weak convection over the higher terrains of the region. The strongest chance for thunder is over Northeast Washington and North Idaho. There is not enough confidence to include thunder for the Cascades. The Low is also tightening the pressure gradient as it swings through the region. It will lead to breezy conditions through the period. Strongest winds will be tonight with gusts into the 30-40 mph range across the Basin. Winds will remain breezy with gusts 15-25 mph. Sustained winds will be in the teens. Overnight temperatures are also expected to dip. While the highs will mainly be in the 40s to low 50s. The lows will drop into the upper 20s and 30s Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Portions of the Columbia Basin have reached early growing season. Cold sensitive vegetation could be impacted. If winds remain breezy, it will lower the potential for frost/freeze impacts. Friday through Tuesday: High pressure fills in behind the exiting Low. A dry warning trend is expected through the weekend and into the start of next week. Something to keep an eye is a Low moving near coast of Southern Oregon on Monday. Depending on the strength and placement, it could lead to light showers returning to the region for the start of the week. /JDC && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: A strong cold front is approaching the region and recently crossed the Olympic Mountains. Ahead of this front, conditions are breezy with gusts around 20kts at KGEG and KMWH along with -RA over the Idaho Panhandle and NE WA. As the front crosses east of the Cascades 09-15z...rain will increase and fill in across Idaho and eastern third of WA. HREF has a 70% chance for MVFR cigs and vis at KGEG, KSFF, KCOE, and KPUW and 30% chance at KLWS. Snow levels will lower with the front and increasing precipitation intensities with 30-40% chance for rain/snow mix at KPUW, KGEG, KCOE and very low chances for any accumulations with temperatures well above freezing. Drier air will filter into the region behind the front will swift return to VFR skies. Additional showers will develop from high based clouds in the afternoon falling as mix of rain/snow but little to no probabilities for conditions to lower below VFR. The main issue in the post frontal air mass will be gusty winds of 25-30kts. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Main uncertainty is exact timing of rain filling back in ahead of the cold front 6-9z then exactly how low cigs and vis will fall with the heart of the precipitaiton and frontal passage. Cigs could fall as low as 900 ft AGL but moderate to high confidence for these lower cigs to be brief and less than 2 hours. There is low confidence for the post frontal rain/snow showers given the higher cloud bases and dry air intrusion. /sb ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 38 49 29 50 29 54 / 80 70 30 30 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 37 47 30 48 29 51 / 100 90 50 50 10 10 Pullman 37 44 29 45 29 50 / 90 90 60 50 10 10 Lewiston 43 51 34 50 34 55 / 80 90 50 40 10 0 Colville 34 52 27 54 26 59 / 90 60 30 30 0 0 Sandpoint 37 45 30 46 29 51 / 100 90 60 70 20 20 Kellogg 36 42 28 42 29 46 / 100 90 70 80 30 40 Moses Lake 39 56 30 58 30 60 / 30 20 10 0 0 0 Wenatchee 37 51 33 55 34 59 / 50 20 10 0 0 0 Omak 35 53 31 58 32 61 / 50 20 10 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Freeze Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday morning for Moses Lake Area-Upper Columbia Basin- Wenatchee Area. Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM PDT Wednesday for Okanogan Highlands. Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM PDT Wednesday for Western Chelan County. Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM PDT Wednesday for Western Okanogan County. ID...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 5 AM PDT Thursday for Central Panhandle Mountains. && $$  134 FXUS63 KBIS 150546 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1246 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers over portions of south central North Dakota overnight through mid Wednesday morning. - Dry and warmer on Wednesday, with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s. - Wide range in temperatures from northwest to southeast Thursday as a cold front pushes into the state. - Turning much colder with periods of rain and snow Thursday night through Friday, with medium to high chances for light accumulations of snow. - Well below normal temperatures Friday through Saturday, followed by a gradual warm-up into early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1245 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Scattered weak radar returns continue to move across south central North Dakota at the time of this mid night update. Very light rainfall was observed at the office as they passed over the Bismarck area, so at least some of this precpitation is reaching the ground. With this update, have opted to propagate PoPs across south central North Dakota through the early to mid morning, at which time the inciting surface trough should begin to exit to the east across the James River Valley. Otherwise no major adjustments to the forecast were performed with this update, as it remains broadly on track. UPDATE Issued at 1047 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Intensity and coverage of shower activity has decreased late this evening, but the areal footprint of isolated showers has actually expanded into northwest North Dakota, reaching all the way to the Canadian border. The broader area of isolated showers lies in a weak surface trough that is directly under a 500 mb shortwave. Aside from south central North Dakota, which is closer to the base of the upper trough, model guidance is inconsistent with development and maintenance of isolated showers through the night. Will continue to update the forecast with observed trends as needed, but do not anticipate more than a hundredth of an inch of rain at most at any given location. UPDATE Issued at 705 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Scattered showers have developed over southwest North Dakota, with a steady increasing trend in coverage since late afternoon. At 6 PM MDT, the most concentrated shower activity was located at the northern end of a 500 mb shortwave from around Beach to Killdeer, and along a surface trough from around Richardton to Hettinger. The northern showers have access to higher MLCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg, and very infrequent lightning is being detected with these. This activity is mostly expected to dissipate after sunset, but the base of the 500 mb shortwave could prolong shower activity along the South Dakota border into the overnight hours. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 345 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A digging western U.S trough will bring a chance of rain and snow followed by much colder temperatures late in the workweek and into the weekend. Currently, stratus has cleared in the west and continues to erode over central and eastern ND. Afternoon CU has developed over portions of western ND however. For the rest of this afternoon and tonight, there remains a low probability of an isolated shower due to the combination of daytime heating and forcing from an approaching shortwave currently over northeast Wyoming. Forecast soundings show a shallow and narrow region of instability so thunder is not anticipated and any weak shower activity that does develop will likely produce little if any qpf reaching the ground. Quasi-zonal upper level flow continues through the day Wednesday before backing to the southwest in response to the upper level trough dropping into the Pacific Northwest. Wednesday should be an very pleasant day with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s with not a lot of wind by North Dakota standards. The upper trough tracks into the northern Rockies Wednesday night bringing the initial chances for precipitation to northwest ND late Wednesday night. Thursday through Friday...The upper trough moves into the Northern High Plains Thursday, then traverses the forecast area Thursday nigh through Friday. At the surface a surface low develops over the Mondak region and is situated along the ND/SD border at 12Z Thursday. The low pushes east during the day with an elongated surface low from northern Minnesota into northeast Colorado by 00Z Friday. This will produce a very tight temperature gradient from northwest to southeast Thursday. Highs are expected to range from the lower 40s far north to the mid 70s far southeast. Winds will also be picking up during the day from northwest to southeast as the surface trough pushes east. There are some (mainly) chance pops in the west and far north Thursday but only the far northwest looks to be the most likely area to see more than a trace, maybe a few hundredths of an inch of rain. The best precipitation chances will occur Thursday night through Friday as the upper level trough moves through the forecast area. A cluster analysis shows that there's a 60/40 split between a more compact wave moving through the forecast area versus a split wave with better energy north and south of the forecast area. It looks cold enough that both solutions will bring snow. It also looks like the forcing and moisture available are limited enough that qpf is pretty light with a broad swath of 0.10 to 0.15 from southwest ND into north central to northeast ND. The more compact wave would yield a more widespread swath of QPF, but overall the differing impacts between the two solutions looks to be minimal. Our latest NBM guidance is depicting a medium probability for an inch of snow extending from southwest into northwest and north central ND, with low to very low probabilities elsewhere. This is the 24 hour probability ending at 18Z Friday. Two inch probabilities then taper to low for this same area. Probabilities for at least a hundredth of an inch of snow are medium to high across all of western and central ND, so most will likely see a little light snow with this system. It will breezy to windy as the rain changes to snow and temperatures will drop well below freezing over much of western and north central ND, so even though snow accumulations are not expected to amount to much, there could be some minor impacts to travel Thursday night into Friday morning where we do see the combination of snow and winds with freezing surfaces. Once the snow ends on Friday the rest of the weekend into early next week looks to remain dry as upper level ridging builds over the region. It will be cold again Friday night into Saturday morning with Saturday morning lows possibly into the teens over parts of the west and north and highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s. We do begin a gradual warm-up Saturday through early next week with highs climbing back into the 60s and lower 70s by Monday and Tuesday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR ceilings and visibility is generally expected at all terminals throughout the 06Z TAF period. Isolated rain showers moving across south central North Dakota this morning are expected to have limited impact at any given terminal as precpitation must fall through a significantly dry layer near the surface. Otherwise, a brief period of LLWS is possible in the northwest in the late to mid morning, though confidence is too low to include mentions at KXWA at this time. Winds around 5 to 10 knots will generally remain out of the south overnight, before turning to the west southwest and strengthening to around 10 to 15 knots through the late morning and afternoon. A few isolated wind gusts up to 15 to 20 knots will be possible in the afternoon, mainly across the north. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Adam/Hollan DISCUSSION...TWH AVIATION...Adam  142 FXUS63 KDMX 150548 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 1248 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...Updated for the 06z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered severe storms (Level 3 of 5) this afternoon and evening. All severe weather hazards remain possible. More widespread storms and locally heavy rainfall expected tonight, especially over the southern half of Iowa, but with a lower severe weather threat overall. - Additional rounds of severe storms and locally heavy rainfall still expected on Wednesday afternoon and evening, and again on Friday afternoon and evening. Details on those events will be fine tuned in subsequent updates. - Warm and breezy today through Friday with highs in the 70s and 80s. Much cooler readings in the 40s and 50s by this weekend, with a hard freeze likely north Saturday night. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 140 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A broad 500 MB trough is moving over the U.S. Rockies today, and is not well coalesced with several vorticity maxima strung out along its loose axis. Ahead of the trough, Iowa remains beneath southwesterly steering flow resulting in, relative to the season, warm and quite humid conditions across the state. A surface low pressure center is slowly developing ahead of the 500 MB trough, near the Colorado/Kansas border, with a nearly stationary front extending northeastward over roughly the northern half of Iowa. Satellite imagery shows agitated cumulus clouds developing along and near the frontal zone, and forecast soundings indicate a weakening EML in place that could break at any time. All CAMs initiate convection and form scattered thunderstorms within the next couple hours, most likely near the front roughly north of I-80. Instability is seasonally strong with SBCAPE in excess of 3000 J/KG south of the boundary, and impressive bulk shear values of 40-60 KT are overspreading the area. Wind profiles do show somewhat unidirectional flow in most of the column so this is nearly all speed shear, which mitigates the tornado threat somewhat. Nevertheless, surface-based convection is likely to initiate very soon and continue into the evening. Tornadoes will be possible in any localized backed flow or storms with deviant motion, most likely near the frontal boundary. In addition, any storms will be capable of large hail given the relatively cool mid-levels, strong speed shear, and impressive instability, and the stronger winds aloft will be easy to transport down to the surface with any cold pools. Thus, all modes of severe weather will be possible with the storms this afternoon and early evening. Later this evening and tonight, a subtle shortwave impulse will eject out of the broader approaching trough and move across northern Missouri and Iowa, in conjunction with a developing nocturnal low- level jet. This will provide the impetus for renewed convection tonight, with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms especially over the southern two thirds or so of Iowa. Several high- res model solutions indicate that the surface frontal boundary will be lingering in our southeastern counties this evening, roughly south of a Creston to Grinnell line, with instability pooling along it and modest convergence providing extra focus for initiation. As a result, these solutions depict stronger thunderstorms developing in that area, with forecast soundings indicating strong instability and deep- layer shear supportive of large hail and damaging wind gusts. This threat should be confined to areas near and south of the boundary, with instability waning rapidly to the north toward central Iowa. On Wednesday the broad trough over the Rockies will kick out eastward into the Midwest, with the associated surface low gradually tightening up and moving northeastward to near the Nebraska/Iowa border by the evening. Within the warm sector ahead of and wrapping into the surface low, instability will likely increase significantly during the day. However, there is considerable uncertainty in convective timing and evolution due to the after-effects of overnight storms tonight. In fact, many 12Z model runs from this morning depict additional redevelopment of elevated storms mid-to-late Wednesday morning, which would carry some threat of large hail per forecast soundings and further complicate the forecast for the afternoon and evening. Even so, the degree of destabilization during the afternoon should support more rigorous development later in the day, and once again strong instability and deep-layer shear may be very supportive of a severe weather threat. This will be particularly true as the surface low and triple point approach from the west late Wednesday afternoon/early evening, with backing flow and boundaries tied into the low supporting some enhancement of the tornado threat. These storms will surge eastward out of our forecast area by late evening, though a few weaker storms may develop later, in association with the main 500 MB trough moving through, around Wednesday night. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 1239 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 On Thursday a weak ridge will move through Iowa, providing a most welcome respite in the form of a dry, mostly sunny, and mild day with highs roughly in the 75-80 degree range and modest breezes. By Thursday night however, an even deeper longitudinal 500 MB trough will be moving into the Rockies, heralding more active weather to end the week. A surface cyclone will develop in the Southern High Plains with a long inverted trough and sharp baroclinic zone extending northeastward across the Midwest. By Friday morning this front will span from central Kansas, across northwestern Iowa, and into western Wisconsin. Destabilization will occur ahead of the front during the day Friday, and by the afternoon CAPE of 1500-2500 J/KG is likely in at least parts of our area, mainly the southern half. Deep-layer shear will be fairly modest and mostly in the form of speed shear, however the strong dynamic forcing ahead of the approaching trough, convergence along the front, and increasing instability will combine with this shear to be more than sufficient to support severe weather potential Friday afternoon and evening, as outlined by SPC outlooks. The storm system will push quickly through Friday night and clear us out, though there may be some light wraparound precipitation in our northern counties lingering into Saturday as the final lobe of the 500 MB trough moves by. With much colder air surging in behind the late Friday front and temperatures expected to fall into the 30s across much of our area by early Saturday, a few flakes of snow cannot be ruled out in northern Iowa but no real accumulation or impact would be expected. Highs on Saturday will be nearly 30 degrees cooler than on Friday, ranging in the mid-40s to mid-50s, then falling even further Saturday night into Sunday morning with lows in the upper 20s to mid-30s across Iowa resulting in a frost/freeze in many areas. The good news is this cooler weather will be short- lived, as a ridging pattern sets up in the first half of next week supporting a gradual warming trend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1242 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Storms have focused more to the south, affecting KDSM the most in the next 6 hours. Monitoring damaging wind potential upstream as CSQ gusted over 50kts. In other storms, heavy rain and hail up to 1" diameter possible. Severe weather chances decrease after 08z, but MVFR cigs will increase in coverage, lifting into northern Iowa with showers towards the morning. Prob30 groups remain through the morning as showers and storms will be common in the central and east. Midday hours around 18z have begun to trend dry before severe storms return 20z to 00z. Enough confidence in storm timing to put in a prevailing group of TSRA in some sites. All modes of severe weather will be possible in that time frame, along with MVFR cigs and potentially IFR vsbys from rainfall. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 119 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Multiple rounds of seasonally moderate to heavy rain this week will lead to renewed flooding concerns. Concerns will include possible renewed or additional river flooding as well as flash flooding. Output from the GFS- and NBM-forced medium-range National Water Model (NWM) and the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System (HEFS) suggest the most likely scenario will be moderate to significant within-bank rises on many rivers and streams across the CWA over the next week, especially across the southeast half. Some locations may see minor river flooding as well. These rises will be due to the additive effect of multiple rounds of rainfall. If rainfall is higher than presently forecast then the risk of several locations seeing minor flooding and a few locations seeing moderate flooding will increase. Flash flooding is less of a concern than river flooding, however the risk is nonzero. The additive effect of rain events will result in a slightly higher risk of flash flooding from Friday into Saturday. The most likely scenario through the end of this week will be ponding of water or low-end flash flooding especially in urban areas or areas that receive repeated heavy rainfall over a relatively short time period. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lee LONG TERM...Lee AVIATION...Jimenez HYDROLOGY...Zogg  674 FXUS63 KPAH 150549 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1249 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures will approach or exceed record high values again today. - A decaying line of showers and thunderstorms (60-90% chance) will move into the area Thursday morning, bringing much-needed rainfall of 0.25-0.50 inches. - A few thunderstorms may redevelop Thursday afternoon and evening, and an isolated strong storm cannot be ruled out. - A cold front will bring another good chance (50-70%) of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday, followed by cooler and dry quiet weather. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1249 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Stout H5 ridging over the southeast CONUS will again bring to the region very warm and mainly dry today into tonight. Cannot rule out a stray thunderstorm in the far west and northwest parts of the forecast area this afternoon and evening, but coverage will be isolated (10-20%). As temperatures at 850mb rise to 16-18C (around the 95th percentile), high temperatures Wednesday will climb into the middle to upper 80s, which will again approach or break record high values. Late tonight into Thursday, numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop to our north and west ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. These showers and storms will be in a decaying mode as they move through the region Thursday morning. Thursday afternoon and evening, an upper- level jet max will pass over the region, which will act to potentially trigger new convection. A few storms reaching strong or severe levels is not out of the question late on Thursday, and SPC has maintained a marginal risk over the region in its latest Day 2 Outlook. If any severe storms develop, marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be the main threat. Given the uncertainty regarding recovery following the morning precipitation, forecast confidence is low regarding the severe threat. Rainfall amounts have trended slightly lower from yesterday's forecast, with most areas now progged to see about 0.25-0.50" by late Thursday evening. Friday will be see another day of near record warmth as the ridging briefly expands over the region. High temperatures will again reach the middle to upper 80s, and a few locations in west Kentucky may reach 90 degrees. The ridge will begin to break down more significantly Saturday into next week, as troughing over the Upper Midwest dips southward into the area. A surface cold front will pass through the area Saturday afternoon and evening, bringing another chance (60-90%) of showers and thunderstorms, in the form of a strongly forced line of storms. These storms could pose a severe risk, especially in southwest IN, where SPC has introduced a slight risk for this time. If severe storms do form, damaging wind gusts would be the primary threat. More beneficial rains are also forecast, with another 0.25-0.50" of rain forecast Saturday into Sunday. Drier and seasonably mild conditions are forecast Sunday into Monday, followed by a warm up into the middle to upper 70s on Tuesday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 624 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions expected through the end of the period. Expecting some high cirrus to move in overnight and then more midlevel diurnal cu to develop tomorrow during the day. Winds will continue to be out of the south and southwest tonight and tomorrow. Expect winds come down slightly overnight to around 8-10 kts and then to pick back up again tomorrow during the day with gusts to around 20-25 kts. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1249 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Record high temperatures for today: PAH: 88 (1977) EVV: 86 (2024) CGI: 87 (1992) POF: 88 (1936) MDH: 87 (2024) && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DWS AVIATION...HICKFORD CLIMATE...DWS  274 FXUS63 KIND 150550 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 150 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Active pattern this week with near daily chances for showers and storms. Friday likely to be the driest day of the week. - Near record warm temperatures expected through Saturday with multiple days in the 80s and lows in the 60s. && .FORECAST UPDATE... Issued at 922 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The severe weather threat has diminished across central Indiana as storms have shifted out of the region. Latest observations depict quiet weather over the forecast area with storms still ongoing further east in Ohio. Expect mostly quiet weather through the overnight period due to weak surface ridging building in and convective overturning from recent storms. POPs were lowered significantly in the latest update. Isolated showers or storms cannot be ruled out late tonight, mainly across northern counties as a complex of storms may shift south. The storms will likely weaken as they progress southeastward though and may stay north of the area entirely so confidence is low. Trends will continue to be monitored closely for any additional adjustments, but dry conditions are likely through the overnight. Look for mild lows in the mid-upper 60s tonight thanks to breezy southwesterly flow. && .DISCUSSION (This evening through Tuesday)... Issued at 303 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 An MCS over the upper Mississippi Valley decayed over central IL early this morning, but its outflow boundary continued to push through central Indiana, of which led to isolated thunderstorms and showers north and west of Indianapolis. This boundary is now stalling over central IL as it interacts with modest SW flow ahead of a developing low pressure system. Visible satellite imagery is starting to define this boundary, of which is currently along a line from Bloomington to Terre Haute; this is supported by the mass fields in the surface analysis. North/East of this boundary there is still signals of some mid-level stability both in the cloud features and from ACAR sounding analysis at KIND. However to its South/West, modest moisture advection is aiding in quick destabilization showcased by areas of "popcorn" cumulus. Convective initiation is expected to begin over the next few hours over this area, quickly pushing eastward, reaching central Indiana between 4 and 6PM. Cells initially could begin elevated, but should quickly erode the weak cap and become surface based with progression. Parameter spacing for severe weather is rather robust today with an expected 2-3 kJ/kg of CAPE and greater than 40kt of effective shear. This should allow for organized/strong updrafts to develop with a broad risk of damaging wind gusts and large hail. While tornadoes are not the primary threat, there will be a chance of isolated tornadoes this evening. The primary concern will be with cells that become highly deviant along the aforementioned boundary and brief spin-ups within cell mergers. The severe threat should wane after 02Z as subsidence on the backside of the MCS increases convective inhibition. Focus will then turn to upstream convection over the western Great Lakes. The primary threat will likely stay well to the north overnight, but residual outflow boundaries tomorrow could focus initiation over northern portions of the area in the morning and early afternoon, with the thunderstorm threat continuing into the early evening. Confidence in specific locations for thunderstorms is low, and will greatly depend on the evolution and progression of upstream convection tonight. Instability will remain high tomorrow but shear will not be quite as organized leading to a lower overall severe threat, with a marginal threat of damaging winds and large hail for most of central Indiana. The active pattern will continue into the weekend with multiple waves bringing additional chances for storms then upper ridging expected to bring drier and cooler air for the start of the new week. Wednesday night will start off with an upper short wave tracking from the central plains to the Great Lakes with showers and storms along and ahead of the associated cold front. Main threats with this system will be lightning and stronger wind gusts mixing down within stronger storms. The persistent SW flow will prolong the above normal temperatures through Saturday as highs will range from the 70s to mid 80s and lows in the 50s to 60s. Friday will see a break in rain chances then a deep trough will prompt another round storms for Saturday. Models show that the surface low with this system will be unaligned and tracking ahead of its upper component. This will potentially make Saturday's system more diurnally driven rather than synoptically forced. At this time, strong deep layer flow will be parallel to the cold front which could be enough to form a line of storms with damaging winds being the main concern. Outside of storms, stronger gusts are likely Saturday and into Sunday since the elevated portion of the system will be lagging behind. General gusts Saturday could reach as high as 35-40 mph and around 25 mph on Sunday. There are still some differences on when the associated cold front would exit, but likely sometime late Saturday into the overnight hours, behind which cooler and below normal temperatures will return at least for the first couple of days of the new week. Lows Monday morning could be approaching near freezing to mid-30s. Surface high pressure behind the front looks to track over the Ohio Valley, allowing for dry weather for the start of the new week as well. && .AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 150 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Impacts: - Mainly SSW winds through the TAF period, gusting to 17-25KT - Non-zero chances of additional convection this evening - Multiple rounds of convection 17z Wed - 12z Thu Discussion: Mainly VFR conditions will prevail across central Indiana this evening as satellite imagery shows most of the convective activity in the region well to the west or north. The region remains well within the warm sector of an area of low pressure to the northwest. Waves of energy within the SW flow aloft interacting with leftover boundaries will likely be the focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon into tonight. Mainly VFR cigs and vis outside of storms for the majority of the period. After 17z, widely scatter storms should begin forming along leftover boundaries. Low confidence in exactly where these boundaries set up, however thinking the set up and evolution will be very similar to Tuesday where the greatest threat is along and north of I-70. Kept Prob30 groups for TSRA after 17z at KLAF, KIND, and KHUF where the greatest threat is. Will be able to fine tune exact timing in later forecast issuances once boundaries set up. Brief periods of MVFR or worse conditions with erratic wind speeds and directions under any storm. With numerous waves of showers and storms expected to move through the area, keeping the threat for storms through the end of the TAF period. Outside of storms, breezy, south-southwest flow to prevail through the period, with slight changes in direction possible, especially near any showers. Took out any mention of LLWS overnight through the early morning hours as the boundary layer is remaining well mixed according to obs and local ACARS soundings. Wind gusts of 15-25 kts should prevail through the period. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Melo AVIATION...CM DISCUSSION...KF/Updike  133 FXUS61 KALY 150551 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 151 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The Marginal Severe Weather Risk (level 1 of 5) was upgraded to a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for areas near and north of I-90 on Thursday. Damaging winds remains the primary hazard from any severe storm. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Isolated to scattered areas of showers and thunderstorms today through tomorrow with a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms in the eastern Catskills and mid-Hudson Valley today with a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for areas near and north of I-90 tomorrow. Damaging winds is the primary hazard from any severe storm both days. 2. The threat for widespread impactful weather is low Friday through early next week with temperatures trending below normal early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Our "ridge roller" pattern continues through today as a quasi- stationary boundary remains draped across eastern NY and western New England with fast zonal flow aloft. A decaying MCS from the Great Lakes will track eastward this morning resulting in a period of showers and potentially isolated storms late this morning into early P.M for areas mainly north of I-90. The quasi-stationary boundary lingers overhead this afternoon which should keep skies rather cloudy, especially from I-90 northward, and suppresses boundary layer mixing. While temperatures will still run above normal by mid-April standards, most will be lower compared to yesterday when many hit 80 for the first time in 2026. The exception is the mid-Hudson Valley and NW CT which should remain just south of the boundary allowing for breaks of P.M sun and temperatures to warm into the low to mid 80s. With plenty of low-level moisture still around, the sunshine should generate sufficient instability with guidance suggesting 1000-1500J/kg of SB CAPE. This combined with the fast flow aloft supporting deep layer shear values 40-50kts and steepening mid- level lapse rates 6-6.5C/km presents a favorable environment for organized convection focused in the eastern Catskills and mid- Hudson Valley where SPC maintains its marginal risk (level 1 of 5). However, overall forcing remains limited this afternoon as guidance shows just some very weak shortwaves tracking within the fast flow. CAMs match this thinking showing isolated to widely scattered shower/storm activity so capped POPs at chance for most areas. Should sufficient forcing allow isolated convection to develop in the marginal risk area, an isolated or two storm could become severe with damaging winds the primary hazard. We trend POPs upwards to likely and even categorical tonight when a more pronounced shortwave arrives. This should support more organized areas of showers and some embedded thunderstorms but given the overnight timing, the severe weather potential remains low. For Thursday, our quasi-stationary boundary lifts northward near or just north of I-90 as a pronounced shortwave trough digs into the Great Lakes with the low-level thermal gradient tightening. Areas south of the boundary look to break out in sun and with dew points remaining rather moist, the insolation will again contribute to 500 - 1000 J/kg of SB CAPE. Again, the fast flow aloft should support rather high deep layer shear values and with good agreement for stronger shortwaves or "ridge rollers" tracking within the fast zonal flow, there is increasing confidence that the stronger low and mid-level forcing will likely generate areas of showers/thunderstorms Thurs afternoon into the early evening. With deep layer shear vectors oriented parallel to the boundary, a linear storm mode should be favored with damaging winds the primary hazard from any strong to severe storm. SPC has upgraded the severe weather risk to a slight (level 2 of 5) for areas near and north of I-90 where the stronger forcing exists with a marginal risk for most of eastern NY into western New England. KEY MESSAGE 2... Additional disturbances will force a rinse-and-repeat type pattern through the end of the week with rounds of additional showers and non-severe thunderstorms amid a persistent, warm environment. Temperatures will continue to run above normal until late this weekend into early next week when a fairly potent cold front sweeps through the region and brings us actually to below-normal levels by Monday. That said, the overall probability for impactful weather is low from Thursday through early next week. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Thru 06Z Thursday...The cold front has become stationary over northern NY and New England early this morning near KGFL. The skies have cleared with some sct-bkn cirrus around. The recent wet ground and light to calm winds will promote a period of radiational IFR/LIFR mist/fog at KGFL and also at KPSF between 08Z-12Z/Wed. Some MVFR stratus may move in at KALB between 09Z-13Z/Wed with cigs about 2.5 kft AGL. We used a TEMPO group to address the possibility of stratus. KPOU should remain VFR with sct-bkn cirrus. A weakening batch of showers will approach KALB-KPSF northward to KGFL between 13Z-17Z/Wed. We brought some showers in with PROB30 groups at KALB/KGFL with MVFR cigs and vsbys. KPSF/KPOU were kept VFR with conditions improving for KPSF to VFR levels. Expecting VFR conditions most of the afternoon for KALB-KPSF south to KPOU with sct-bkn cumulus/stratocumulus 4-5 kft AGL with some lingering MVFR clouds at KGFL. Another disturbance moves along the front towards 23Z/Wed to 05Z/Thu. Some showers/thunderstorms may impact KPOU with MVFR conditions and we used a PROB30 there and further north to KALB/KPSF, as showers from 02Z-06Z/Thu. West to southwest winds decrease to 5 KT or less early this morning and then increase from the south to southwest at less than 10 KT in the late morning through the afternoon. Outlook... Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Sunday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures(Year Set): Today April 15: Albany: 86(2003) Glens Falls: 84(2003) Poughkeepsie: 84(2003) Thursday April 16: Albany: 91(2012) Glens Falls: 89(2002) Poughkeepsie: 91(2012) && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...31 AVIATION...07 CLIMATE...07  418 FXUS64 KSHV 150551 AAA AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1251 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1216 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible on Wednesday into Thursday. - A strong cold front will traverse the region on Saturday, delivering some widespread rainfall and some cooler temps. - Cooler and drier air will settle into the region by Sunday, followed by a slow warming trend into the middle of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1216 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Our region remains positioned under a moist southerly flow as a surface ridge remains in place over the Gulf. This will maintain a steady stream of humidity into the region. For Wednesday and Thursday, a series of upper-level disturbances will interact with this moisture and trigger a few rounds of convection. That being said, short range models have trended a little lower than previous models so I think the NBM could be too excited in regards to the coverage for today. The main area of concern for today will be for areas north of I-20 in east Texas, and then areas along and north of the I-30 corridor. The greatest risk for strong to severe storms today will be across portions of far northeast Texas, southeast Oklahoma, and some western Arkansas. These storms will be capable of producing mainly gusty winds and some hail, but we can't rule out the potential for a tornado or two either. Probably the more impactful event will come on Saturday as a strong cold front sweeps from northwest to southeast across the region. While there remains some differing opinions on timing, it looks like the bulk of the storms will come Saturday afternoon. This will have the potential to provide more widespread rainfall to the region, along with the potential for some strong storms, something we will continue to monitor. Dry air will follow behind the passing cold front, in addition to ushering in some slightly below normal temperatures for Sunday and into the start of next week before returning to more seasonable levels on Tuesday. /33/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1251 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions beneath an extensive cirrus shield will persist for at least a portion of the overnight hours to start the 15/06Z TAF period, but low MVFR cigs have recently developed over portions of SE/ECntrl TX and SW LA, and will quickly spread NNE into the region over the next several hours, and encompass much of the region by daybreak Wednesday. These cigs will slowly lift by mid to late morning, returning to VFR by midday/early afternoon. However, cu cigs should linger through much of the afternoon before eventually scattering out later in the day, and may linger even through the evening. Isolated to scattered convection may develop late this afternoon over portions of NE TX/SE OK/adjacent SW AR, but should remain N and W of the TYR/TXK terminals through the end of the TAF period. However, a larger convection complex should develop late this afternoon/evening over Cntrl/Ern OK, and shift ESE into portions of extreme SE OK and Wrn AR late this evening, and may affect TXK by or after 06Z Thursday as it gradually weakens. Should also see low MVFR/possibly IFR cigs develop by the end of the TAF period over SE TX, and quickly spread N into the region through daybreak Thursday. S winds 5-11kts overnight will increase to 11-16kts with gusts to 25kts after 15Z. /15/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1251 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon and tonight across portions of extreme Northeast Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, and adjacent sections of Southwest Arkansas for the potential for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms. /15/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 86 67 87 67 / 0 20 10 0 MLU 88 65 89 66 / 0 10 20 0 DEQ 81 61 82 62 / 40 70 20 0 TXK 85 67 86 67 / 10 60 20 10 ELD 85 63 86 64 / 0 30 30 10 TYR 83 67 85 67 / 30 50 10 0 GGG 85 66 86 66 / 10 40 10 0 LFK 86 67 87 66 / 0 10 10 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...33 AVIATION...15  739 FXUS66 KPDT 150552 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 1052 PM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mountain snow today into Thursday - Breezy to windy through Thursday - Near- to sub-freezing morning lows Thursday and Friday for the lowlands && .DISCUSSION... Ensemble and deterministic NWP guidance are in excellent agreement that the next weather system to affect the region, an upper-level closed low currently centered over southeast Alaska, will continue to track along the coast of British Columbia and eventually into the Pacific Northwest through Thursday. Its attendant cold front is expected (99 percent confidence) to slowly traverse the forecast area overnight (Washington Cascades) through Wednesday afternoon (far northeast Oregon), lowering snow levels below mountain pass elevations. Winter weather headlines remain in effect, and confidence is high (80 percent) in 4-8 inches of snowfall for the Washington Cascades, 6-12 inches for the Oregon Cascades, and 5-10 inches for the northern Blue Mountains with locally higher totals along the crests. The bulk of the snowfall will likely (80 percent confidence) end by Wednesday morning (Washington Cascades) to Wednesday afternoon (Oregon Cascades and Blues) as the front sags southeast, but snow showers will persist through Wednesday night or Thursday morning as the aforementioned upper low moves overhead. Precipitation associated with the cold front in non-mountain areas will be mostly rain below 1500-2000 feet, though uncertainty still exists in snowfall between 2000 and 4000 feet. Much of this uncertainty is driven by how long the frontal band lingers over the lowlands (i.e. how much precipitation falls and how much rate-driven cooling will occur within the band), and also in the location/magnitude of post-frontal snow showers. Widespread breezy to windy southwesterly to westerly winds are expected this afternoon and tonight in advance of the cold frontal passage. Confidence was too low (50 percent) in widespread advisory-level sustained winds or wind gusts to issue any wind headlines. By Wednesday afternoon, winds will become westerly to northwesterly in the wake of the front and remain diurnally breezy to windy through Thursday. NBM probabilities of exceeding advisory levels vary widely (30-80 percent) across the lower elevations each day, highest for wind-prone locations of the foothills of the Blue Mountains and north-central Oregon as well as the Kittitas Valley. The cold air mass associated with the upper low Thursday morning has prompted concerns for near- to below-freezing morning temperatures. NBM calibrated probabilities suggest medium-high chances (60-90 percent) of freezing temperatures for the Yakima and Kittitas valleys, medium probabilities (30-70 percent) along the foothills of the Blue Mountains, and low- medium-medium (20-50 percent) for the lowest elevations including the eastern Columbia River Gorge and lower Columbia Basin. Have opted to issue a Freeze Watch where chances of freezing are highest (Kittitas and Yakima valleys and the foothills of the northern Blue Mountains of Oregon), but will note there are still a lot of moving parts to the forecast with uncertainty in how much cloud cover will persist and how windy conditions will remain overnight into the morning hours. Also worthy mentioning, with the notable exception of several CAMs (and perhaps a few other inputs not examined), raw inputs to the NBM are largely not supportive of sub-freezing temperatures while bias-corrected inputs are. This is not uncommon, but when conditions are not calm, raw inputs are more likely to have their warmer temperatures verify than when radiational cooling is efficient and guidance struggles to resolve cold pools. An upper-level ridge will likely (80 percent confidence) build into the Pacific Northwest Friday into the weekend, yielding lighter winds and mostly dry conditions. The main headline- worthy consideration for Friday will be near- to sub-freezing temperatures for the lowlands. This set-up looks more favorable for mostly clear to clear skies and lighter winds relative to Thursday morning, so while the coldest air mass will have exited the region to the east, radiational cooling should be more efficient. By Sunday through Monday, uncertainty in the 500-hPa pattern grows, but some flavor of a 500-hPa closed low (~85 percent of members) or trough (~15 percent of members) is advertised by all ensemble clusters to be in the vicinity of, or over, the Pacific Northwest. Will note the trend in 12Z ensembles has been towards the offshore cut-off low, a solution that anecdotally materializes more often relative to the more progressive solutions. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... VFR conditions initiate for the beginning. Main weather concerns is breezy to locally winds of up to 25-35 knots developing at all sites, mainly in the 10Z-14Z period. MVFR conditions are expected to develop when light to moderate rain showers enter the region, bringing low level cloud decks and 3-5SM of visibility. Conditions are expected to improve by the afternoon hours when the unsettled weather moves out of the region. Breezy wind gusts will linger in most areas with gusts up to 25 knots. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 41 51 31 54 / 60 90 40 10 ALW 43 51 34 54 / 80 100 60 30 PSC 44 58 34 61 / 40 70 20 0 YKM 37 55 30 59 / 60 30 10 0 HRI 43 56 33 59 / 30 70 20 0 ELN 31 47 29 51 / 60 20 10 0 RDM 36 49 22 49 / 50 90 30 0 LGD 40 49 29 46 / 90 90 60 50 GCD 38 50 26 45 / 70 100 70 50 DLS 41 53 35 57 / 90 80 20 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM PDT Wednesday for WAZ030- 522. Freeze Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning for WAZ026-027. OR...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM PDT Wednesday for ORZ502. Freeze Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning for ORZ507. Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ509. && $$ DISCUSSION...86 AVIATION...95  491 FXUS64 KEWX 150552 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1252 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated strong to severe storms possible west of the I-35 Corridor overnight. - Chance for isolated storms Wednesday mainly north of Highway 90; a near widespread chance of rain and storms Saturday from a cold front. - Warm and humid conditions through Friday, then cooler than normal this weekend into Monday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 1239 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A rude beginning to the overnight forecast package came with severe storms that slightly overachieved their timing and a very untimely KDFX radar crash with a severe storm bearing down on top of Del Rio. The steady but unstable SW flow aloft will continue to supply dynamics and Pacific moisture to keep this activity going through at least 2 AM, but most of the HREF solutions diminish this activity between 2 and 5 AM. Long lived elevated showers left behind dissipated storms are a good sign that PWat values are quite elevated, and the HRRR confirms this with up to 1.75 at around DRT in one of the more recent runs. With the near midnight observation of heavy lightning and storms that are starting to train a bit, we could see some flash flooding take place before we able to get the storm trends in the right direction. With the slight over achievement of convection and another round expected to light up over the Hill Country for Wednesday, we may need to review the rain chances for the daytime and possibly expand higher chances farther south than what is out there currently. But for now we'll stick to the blends and hope the consensus is correct on the lower coverages. With the type of storms we are getting and the amount of training occurring, localized flooding is a possibility, and not having a radar to cover the western areas that already got some heavy rain could be a bit nerve-racking. Later in the evening, the cap is assumed to have strengthened as coverage wains somewhat early in the nigh as compared to what we're seeing tonight. This is also shown in the high temperature forecast for Thursday that is expected to perk up about 5 degrees over what's expected for Wednesday. No rain is currently forecast for Thursday but there are expected to be some dry-line storms just northwest of our CWA Thursday evening. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1239 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Friday, persistence weather is expected as the weak ridging pattern over the area is similar to that of Thursday. Breezy, warm and humid conditions will give way to another day of highs in the 80s to mid 90s. Friday night, the pattern destabilizes from another low latitude upper trough into the SW CONUS, setting up more unstable SW flow aloft over TX. Initially the storms will stick to the western counties as they have been tonight, but a cold front arriving Saturday will bring what could be a widespread rain event with most of the falling rain overrunning behind the front. The leading edge storms could be strong as one might expect in April, but we think most of the post frontal activity should be better behaved as the frontal layer to arrive is apparently going to be quite a bit deeper than our more recent fronts. Plus the cold front is set to arrive fairly early in the day. Besides having the strong front cooling us off for a late spring treat, we also should benefit from a favorable pattern of continued overrunning which might help us on the rain deficit problem. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 MVFR cigs are forecast for the I-35 sites through about noon/17Z. A cluster of storms could move across KDRT between 06z and 07Z to bring lower cigs and vbsys to 3SM in addition wind gusts up to 35 knots assuming the storms move over the terminal. Otherwise, MVFR cigs are forecast overnight through late Wednesday morning. There is a time window around 12Z where IFR cigs could happen, but there is low confidence with that. VFR conditions return around noon at the I-35 sites and a few hours later for KDRT. Southeasterly to south winds 8 to 14 knots with gusts up to 25 knots are forecast for all area sites throughout the day and early evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 85 69 89 69 / 40 30 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 86 68 90 69 / 30 30 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 85 67 89 69 / 30 20 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 81 66 85 67 / 50 30 10 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 85 69 90 70 / 20 10 10 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 83 67 87 68 / 40 40 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 83 65 89 66 / 40 10 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 85 67 89 69 / 30 30 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 86 69 89 69 / 10 10 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 85 69 89 70 / 30 20 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 86 70 90 70 / 20 10 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...18 LONG TERM....18 AVIATION...17  224 FXUS65 KBOU 150553 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1153 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warmer and drier Wednesday. - Locally critical fire weather conditions over the plains Thursday afternoon. - Next system moves in Friday with much colder temperatures and snow for most locations. - Hard freeze likely Friday night and into Saturday morning with lows in the upper teens to mid 20s. && .DISCUSSION /Through Tuesday/... Issued at 1145 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Satellite and RAP analysis products show today's shortwave continuing to push eastward, with only a few lingering showers across the plains left on radar. Wednesday should be warmer and drier across the forecast area as weak zonal flow develops behind the departing trough. Mid-level temperatures should warm several degC and forecast highs return to the 60s across most of the plains. A little bit of moisture is expected to linger across the high country leading to a bit more cloud cover there, with mostly sunny skies across the plains. Thursday will likely be the warmest day of the work week this week, with southwesterly flow aloft increasing ahead of our next (stronger) trough axis. Temperatures are expected to warm up into the mid to upper 70s across most of the plains... and combined with low relative humidity values... another day of widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be possible. See the Fire Wx section below for additional details. The focus of the forecast period continues to be Thursday night through Friday night, as a strong trough axis swings across the region. Tonight's guidance hasn't changed significantly with the synoptic scale details of this event, with the trough axis quickly pushing across the state during the day Friday. A rather strong cold front looks like it will push into the plains late Thursday night or sometime Friday morning, with 700mb temperatures dropping to as cold as -8 to -11C by Friday afternoon. While the trough is rather quick to move across the region, there would still be a narrow period (<12 hours) of favorable upslope and QG ascent to work with during the day Friday. Unsurprisingly, ensemble guidance strongly favors a modest (around 0.15-0.4") QPF forecast which would lead to generally light snow amounts across most of the Front Range and I-25 corridor. We'll continue to watch trends closely here as we get into the range of the HRRR/RRFS and other CAMs. A cold overnight is likely on Friday night with a hard freeze expected across most of the lower elevations. We may be slow to warm on Saturday, but there's good agreement in a broad ridge developing across the western CONUS by later in the weekend or early next week. Highs should climb to above normal values by Sunday and continue through early/mid-week next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday/... Issued at 1142 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions will persist. The last of the mid level cloud deck with ceilings 6,000-10,000 feet will be moving off to the southeast through 08Z. Then only FEW-SCT clouds 10,000 feet or higher through the rest of the TAF period. Winds are settling to normal SW now and will hold through about 14Z, and then trend more W-NW 15Z-20Z and speeds should stay generally under 12 kts. KBJC, however, will likely (60% chance) see some mountain wave enhanced gusts to around 25 kts anytime from 09Z-18Z. Winds should then hold fairly persistent from the W-NW through 01Z Thursday, only to slowly relax again and become normal S-SW drainage winds by 03Z-05Z Thursday. Overall, there is higher than normal confidence with those wind trends, although can't totally rule out (20% chance) of brief disruptions in the expected wind progression. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1145 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Dry, southwesterly flow aloft is expected to develop on Thursday ahead of Friday's storm system... leading to widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions across the forecast area. Good agreement across Tuesday afternoon's guidance and from most of the available 00z guidance tonight that we'll see humidity drop to critical thresholds across most of the lower elevations, with some models advertising single digit RH values Thursday afternoon. The bigger question is how much wind will develop across the lower elevations Thursday afternoon. The NBM appears to be far too aggressive with gusts, and even after adjusting down our forecast wind grids are about 5-10 mph stronger than some higher resolution guidance. With mid-level (700mb) flow around 20-25kt, it seems reasonable to expect at least a few hours of >25 mph gusts. Given that the flow is predominantly SW/WSW, much of the I-25/I-76 corridors may be partially sheltered. While many locations in the plains may see critical fire weather conditions, GEFS Hot Dry Windy Index plumes suggest higher confidence of approaching/exceeding the 90th percentile of the HDWI across South Park into Lincoln county, with far more spread along and north of I-70/I-76. For those reasons, we've opted for a relatively small Fire Weather Watch from South Park into the Palmer Divide and adjacent plains for Thursday, though it's possible the day shift will need to make additional refinements after evaluating the full suite of Wednesday's 12z guidance. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for COZ214-216-241-245>247-249. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hiris AVIATION...20 FIRE WEATHER...Hiris  033 FXUS62 KMLB 150558 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 158 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER, CLIMATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 131 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - A High risk of life-threatening rip currents continues at all Central Florida Atlantic beaches. Entering the surf is highly discouraged. - Warming trend under deep high pressure continues, with near record highs in the low 90s forecast across the interior Friday into the weekend. - Remaining mostly dry through the weekend, then a small chance of showers returns to the forecast early next week as a weakening front pushes through late Sunday into early Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 131 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Today-Tonight...Deep high pressure over Florida will keep us dry and warm. Onshore (easterly) flow continues as the ridge axis of surface high pressure extending from the Atlantic towards Florida stays just north of the area. A more relaxed pressure gradient will produce lighter winds today, increasing to 5-10 mph inland, and to around 10 mph with occasional gusts along the coast in the afternoon behind the sea breeze. Afternoon highs in the U70s-M80s, possibly reaching the U80s well inland. A few onshore moving sprinkles embedded in the marine strato cu can't be ruled out. The light overnight winds, mostly clear skies, and ridge aloft result in a little better chance for early morning fog than previous days, but generally most of the area remains too dry with dew point depressions 3 degrees or greater. The gap closes enough along and north of I-4 for a low (less than 20%) chance of patchy fog early this morning, and again early Thursday morning. Lingering long period swell will continue to produce dangerous rip currents at the beaches, and a high rip current risk continues for the Central Florida Atlantic coastline. Visitors and residents are advised to not enter this hazardous surf. Thursday-Sunday...The ridge aloft extending from the Gulf over Florida is flattened by a passing shortwave Friday, and remains suppressed through the weekend by a trough swinging across the eastern US. At the surface, the ridge axis of high pressure over the subtropical Atlantic settles south over Central Florida by Friday, then begins to retreat eastward over the weekend ahead of an approaching front associated with the trough. Dry conditions and gradual warming will continue, with near record afternoon highs in the U80-L90s forecast Friday across the interior through the weekend. Easterly to southeasterly flow around the ridge plus the afternoon sea breeze will keep highs in the coastal counties to the L-M80s. Could see some onshore moving showers from time to time, especially towards the weekend as moisture increases a bit in the more southeasterly flow. The additional moisture will also increase the chances of morning fog across a wider part of East Central Florida. Monday-Wednesday...A weakening front pushes through late Sunday into early Monday, bringing a small chance of showers, breezy to windy conditions in the afternoons, and a slight cool down. Moisture return and forcing ahead of/along the front are looking pretty meager by the time the boundary reaches Florida. ECM and GFS both depict a mostly quiet frontal passage, with the best chances for showers, such as they are, at 20-30% in afternoons across the central (Monday) and southern (Monday through Wednesday) counties where daytime heating destabilizes residual moisture from the frontal boundary. Breezy to windy conditions are likely to develop in the afternoons as the pressure gradient tightens between the front to the south and high pressure behind the front sliding across the Southeast towards the eastern seaboard. Temperatures drop back closer to normal with afternoon highs in the M70s-L80s and overnight lows in the U50s-U60s. && .MARINE... Issued at 131 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Today-Sunday...Generally favorable boating conditions through the weekend. Ridge axis of high pressure over the subtropical Atlantic north of the area today gradually drops south into Central Florida and the local Atlantic waters by Friday. The high then begins to retreat eastward over the weekend as front approaches, forecast to push through late Sunday into early Monday. Easterly winds 5-15 kts today gradually veer more southeasterly and weaken the next couple days as the ridge axis settles over the area. With light background flow Friday through the weekend, winds shift between SE-ESE in the afternoon/early overnight and SSW-WSW late overnight/early morning with the diurnal sea breeze circulation. Seas 3-5 ft early this morning settle to 2-4 ft Thursday through the weekend. A few light showers may develop from time to time, but otherwise dry conditions. Boating conditions deteriorate Sunday night as the front arrives. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 131 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Predominantly VFR this TAF cycle. Still keeping an eye on FG potential along/north of LEE/SFB thru 13z. Otherwise, ESE flow picks up after 15z to around 8-12 kt. Gusts around 20 kt are possible MLB to SUA, especially along/behind the sea breeze. Winds decrease after 01-03z Thu. with FEW-SCT clouds (occasionally BKN) between FL028 and FL040 lingering TIX south to SUA. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 131 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Dry conditions prevail and the warming trend continues through the weekend. Easterly flow gradually weakens and becomes more southeasterly as the ridge axis of high pressure north of the area today settles south into Central Florida by Friday. Winds generally increase to 5-10 mph inland and to around 10 mph along the coast, while backing easterly behind the sea breeze in the afternoons and evenings, then become light and possibly variable overnight. No min RH concerns along the coast. Inland min RHs 30-45%, lowest north of the I-4 corridor, but winds are forecast to remain below 15 mph and Red Flag conditions are not expected. High temperatures in the U70s-M80s today increase to the M80s-L90s going towards the weekend, near high temperature records inland. There is a low chance for patchy fog along and north of the I-4 corridor early this morning and again early Thursday morning, then chances increase to more parts of East Central Florida Friday morning. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 131 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Record Highs for Friday-Sunday (17th-19th): April 17th April 18th April 19th Daytona Beach 89 2022 92 1967 92 1968 Leesburg 92 1991 90 1990 92 2020 Sanford 92 1967 94 1967 94 2020 Orlando 95 1922 93 1922 94 1922 Melbourne 90 2006 91 2015 93 2015 Vero Beach 91 2021 92 2015 93 1969 Fort Pierce 93 1919 94 2015 92 1988 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 81 59 82 60 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 84 61 86 62 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 79 65 80 65 / 0 10 0 0 VRB 79 63 80 64 / 10 10 0 0 LEE 85 61 87 62 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 84 60 86 61 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 84 62 86 63 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 79 62 81 63 / 10 10 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Haley AVIATION...Schaper  835 FXUS63 KDTX 150559 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 159 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Stretch of warm conditions throughout the work week with daytime temperatures in the 70s each day for most locations. - Potential exists for thunderstorms to develop tonight, mainly between 8 pm and 3 am. Storms may become severe, capable of producing wind gusts to 60 mph, large hail and isolated tornadoes. - There is a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms Wednesday and still another round of storms possible Thursday. - Each episode of storms brings the possibility for locally heavy rainfall. A Flood Watch is in effect for all areas tonight through Thursday night. && .AVIATION... Strongest line of convection has passed through PTK southward and will impact the Detroit taf sites for the first hour or two of the forecast. TSRA may continue a bit after that within the trailing stratiform before showers taper off around 10-12Z. Warm front remains draped across the area with potential showers and thunderstorms today and into tonight. Tried to time out some higher confident windows of time based on hires models, but those times may shift. Outside of variable winds during convection, they should largely be southwesterly around 10 knots. DTW/D21 Convection... A line of thunderstorms will move across DTW between now and 09z. Showers will continue with some embedded thunder possible through the early morning. After a potential brief lull, additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms will exist through the day. .DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * High for ceilings aob 5000 ft tonight. Medium Wednesday morning. * Medium to high for thunderstorms tonight between 04z and 09z. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 312 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 DISCUSSION... Evening/Early Tonight Severe Storm Potential- Enhanced risk south of I-69, Slight Risk north of I-69: Remnant MCV over northern Indiana that generated a few light showers near the state border is pushing east of the region this afternoon and most importantly, its associated cloud shield is likewise peeling away. Increasing insolation supports destabilization through the late afternoon-early evening period with CAMs advertising a southwesterly gradient from Grand Rapids to Detroit where 1000-2000 J/kg of SBCAPE to develops along/south. Additionally stalled frontal boundary is lingering near the northern portions of the Saginaw Valley this evening. These two features are the first to watch before the arrival of then ongoing upstream convection from WI/IA late evening. For the southern CAPE gradient, the fairly weak cap looks to effectively erode between 00-02Z supporting isolated to perhaps scattered convective initiation over areas south of M-59. For the stalled Tri-Cities frontal boundary, its associated initiation depends on enough instability lifting that north which favors a window more 01-03Z. Discrete storms that do manage to fire in either region occur early enough to be fully surface based and be working with at least 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE (likely more for the southern storms) and very steep mid-level lapse rates between 7.5- 8C/km. Additionally wind profiles/hodographs show healthy curvature in the lowest 1-2kft leading to between 100-200 m2/s2 of SRH and 0- 1km bulk shear values nearing 25kts. All together, near-sunset environment is favorable for surface-based storms with all hazards in play, though exactly how much initiation actually occurs is unclear. While the above is (potentially) occuring, upstream convection undergoes upscale growth while crossing from WI into west MI feed by a 45-55kt southwesterly LLJ congealing into a line of storms (wind feed isn't particularly strong true MCS development). Line motion is favored to trend southerly given the CAPE gradient and southwesterly inflow. Worth noting there is a subset of CAMs like the 06Z HRDPS and 12Z ARW that favor more robust development along the southerly flank resulting in the main line push dropping southeast over northern IL/IN instead of SE MI. That said, current forecast remains with the main line dropping NW-SE across the local area late evening-early tonight, 03-07Z. Overnight arrival lends concern for the ability for the line to maintain itself both in strength and a surface layer root due to decreasing available nocturnal instability and only modest inflow winds. Should anything maintain a surface connection, damaging wind gusts and an isolated QLCS tornado would be the main hazards as low level winds maintain favorable curvature in advance of the line. Wednesday- Marginal Risk of Severe: Exactly how Wednesday morning plays out depends on the behavior of this evening's convection and where the line eventually peters out- either over far southern SE MI or over OH. The line pushing fully into OH keeps the first half of the morning drier. Regardless, the local area remains entrenched in this mild/moist airmass with continuing deep layer southwesterly flow. No strong forcing mechanism to speak of Wednesday with embedded PV anomalies instead lifting into the state and spurring clusters of showers and thunderstorms. Airmass is conducive for instability to rebound back near 1000 J/kg by afternoon with bulk shear remaining near 30-40kts offering a shot an isolated storm borderline severe storm. Damaging wind gusts are main hazard, hail threat is hampered by anemic mid- level lapse rates near or below 6C/km. Thursday- Marginal Risk south of M-59: Central Plains mid-level trough eventually lifts into the central Great Lakes providing stronger synoptic support for increasing shower coverage late Wednesday night-Thursday morning. Wave provides stronger wind profiles pushing shear values towards 40-45kts. Inhibiting factor for storms is overnight arrival of the wave with showers ongoing through the day reducing diurnal destabilization potential. Peak CAPE generally favored to hold in the 500-1000 J/kg range and focused towards the state border where 'best' chances for an isolated strong storm will reside. Shortwave eventually kicks east Thursday night tapering off lingering showers. Flooding Concerns- Flood Watch for all SE MI till Thursday night: Spring thus far has already been quite wet for much of the area with all 3 climate sites sitting above normal since March 1st: Saginaw +4.30", Flint +3.78", Detroit +0.88". In the past 10 days, all but the southern portions of Lenawee/Monroe have seen between 1.5-4.5", highest values north of M-59 where areal/river flooding occurred last week. Humid airmass maintains PWAT values around 1.3" tonight through the day Wednesday before nudging higher towards 1.5-1.6" Wednesday night-Thursday. With multiple additional rounds of showers and storms this evening through Thursday evening, QPF forecasts within that timeframe are between 1-3" though higher amounts around 4" are possible depending on thunderstorm coverage and tracks. Given the antecedent conditions with this forecast, a Flood Watch has been issued for all of SE MI through Thursday evening. Late Week: Mid-level ridging works across the central Great Lakes daytime Friday finally provides a reprieve from rainy weather. This however is shortlived as a broad mid-upper trough digs out of the northern Rockies into the upper Midwest/northern Great Lakes. Attendant surface low sends a respectable cold front through the local area Saturday-Saturday night. Additional showers and thunderstorms are likely in advance with afternoon arrival currently favored. Region is outlooked in a Day 5 15% risk due to the strong wind profile and modest diurnal destabilization potential. Much cooler air follows as 850mb temps fall from +14C Saturday to -8C by Sunday morning and eventually -10 Sunday night as the core of thermal troughing crosses. This results in overnight lows Sunday night below freezing in the upper 20s to around 30F. Given the warm stretch this week, growing season is likely to have started for most of the area which would warrant frost/freeze headlines. MARINE... Surface warm front has lifted back toward Saginaw Bay, with southwest flow to the south of the front and east flow for points north. Patchy fog persists over portions of Lake Huron north of the front, but overall dry weather is in place. The next round of thunderstorms is expected to develop over northern IL/WI late this afternoon and track east-southeast into the local waterways overnight as a line. Strong to severe storms are expected mainly after 04z (midnight local time), with potential for damaging wind gusts over 50 knots, large hail over 1 inch, and isolated waterspouts. This line of storms exits east around sunrise Wednesday, but unsettled conditions are expected to continue into the weekend. Each round of thunderstorm activity brings potential for localized erratic waves and gusty winds. Widespread headlines are not expected. HYDROLOGY... Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms start this evening and continue off-on through Thursday evening. Each episode brings the possibility for locally heavy rainfall, particularly where focused areas of thunderstorms develop, which offers flooding concerns given the already wet spring and saturated soils. Forecast rainfall totals from tonight to Thursday night range 1-3" across SE MI with potential for 4" dependent on coverage/track of thunderstorms each episode. A Flood Watch is in effect for the entirety of the region into late Thursday night as a result. Widespread flooding chances are tied if areas see repeated thunderstorms and carry low confidence in occurrence, however flooding of low-lying, poor drainage, and urban areas are likely as is creek and river flooding. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Flood Watch through late Thursday night for MIZ047>049-053>055- 060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ AVIATION.....DRK DISCUSSION...KDK MARINE.......MV HYDROLOGY....KDK You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.