171 FXUS61 KCLE 150600 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 200 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Scattered thunderstorms are moving into the area on the northern fringe of a stronger complex moving into west central Ohio. Hail has been the primary threat upstream but an isolated severe wind threat is also possible over the next couple hours. An Enhanced Risk now clips far NW OH with strong winds the primary concern, but large hail and a tornado or two still possible. Confidence continues to increase in the heavy rainfall potential trough Wednesday night. A Flood Watch has been issued across NW OH from 00Z Wednesday to 12Z Thursday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Multiple rounds of severe weather are possible through Thursday with an additional potential on Saturday as the active pattern continues. All hazards are at play. 2) There is increasing concern about the potential for flooding across the area. A Flood Watch has been issued for portions Northwest Ohio. 3) Above normal temperatures will continue through Saturday before cooler temperatures return Sunday into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A very active pattern will bring the potential for multiple rounds of severe weather today, Wednesday, Thursday and again on Saturday. Focusing on the remainder of today/tonight first, there is currently a Slight Risk across much of the area (Marginal risk in NWPA) for the potential of strong to severe storms producing strong winds, large hail, and non-zero potential for tornadoes. The atmosphere appears to be destabilizing quickly this afternoon after the morning round of convection moved east. Dewpoints have climbed into the 60s with strong southwest WAA. Patches of clearly skies are also being observed, further enhancing the daytime heating. As a result, SBCAPE has already climbed to 1000 to 2000 J/kg across the western counties, allowing for an area of storms to develop. These storms may continue to ride the theta-e gradient towards the northeast, but are expected to weaken as the environment becomes less conducive. With that being said, these pop up showers will likely be possible through much of the afternoon, even with an overall lack of large scale support. The larger concern for severe weather across northern Ohio will be tonight as a LLJ and mid-level shortwave traverse the region. These components should enhance ongoing convection upstream of the area, which will ultimately push east. Best thought on timing at this point is onset near Toledo between 3-5Z Wednesday, gradually spreading east. The path of the system should closely mirror the warm front that will be established north of the area, keeping the greatest severe potential along and north of US30. With that being said, strong outflow colliding with an unstable atmosphere further south will have the potential for additional convection to develop along those boundaries, which is the primary reason SPC has shifted the Day 1 Severe Outlook further south. Through tonight there will be many moving parts that will have to be monitored, making this forecast extremely tricky and maintaining rather low confidence at this point. All hazards will be at play, although the tornado threat should be isolated to any storms that develop ahead of the main MCS. Now shifting to the remainder of the week. Multiple shortwaves and surface low pressures are expected to traverse the region, bringing the potential for additional severe weather on both Wednesday and Thursday. Both days, the severe potential will be highly dependent on how well the atmosphere recovers after overnight/early morning convection. On Wednesday, right now the best timing looks to be in the afternoon and evening with the primary hazard being strong winds, although large hail and a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. SPC has highlighted much of the area in a Day 2 Slight Risk. On Thursday, a slightly more defined, yet still weak cold front will push east early in the day. This frontal boundary would likely be the focus of any convection and to highlight this SPC has pus the western portion of the area in a Marginal Risk. Last but not least, there is also a severe weather potential on Saturday as a deepening upper level trough pushes into the region with strong synoptic support and a strong cold front pushing east. Given this is rather far out, not going to dive into the details as they will likely change, but to highlight this risk SPC has highlight much of the CWA in a 15% probability of severe weather on Day 5. TLDR: There are multiple chances of severe weather through Thursday with all hazards at play. Timing and intensity remain uncertain at this point. A potent trough will push east this weekend, moving a strong cold front east on Saturday and resulting in another potential round of severe weather. SPC has highlighted all of these concerns in the various severe weather outlooks. KEY MESSAGE 2... With this very warm and moist airmass, similar more to late spring/early summer conditions, heavy rainfall associated with convection is likely. Modeled PWAT values of 1.25-2" are expected to persist into Thursday as sustain southwesterly flow continues to stream deep layer moisture across the region. Although QPF totals remain very uncertain, especially given the uncertainty in the various rounds of convection, there is a good chance of very efficient rainfall rates of 1-2" per hour in the strongest storms. These rates are supported by a deepening warm cloud layer and periods where a skinny CAPE profile are predominant in modeled soundings. In addition, some of the convection should be enhanced by a strengthening LLJ that nudges northeast into the region, which will further enhance heavy rainfall potential. These conditions combined with recent heavy precipitation across the area may result in localized flooding and rises in streams and rivers, especially in areas that receive multiple rounds of convection. Given the increasing confidence in the heavy rainfall potential, a Flood Watch has been issued for portions of NW OH beginning at 00Z Wednesday through 12Z Thursday. Will have to continue to monitor the evolution of storms over the next 48 hours to determine any additional hydrologic headline needed. KEY MESSAGE 3... As recently discussed in most of the AFDs, northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania continue to reside in a pattern of above average temperatures with daily highs into the 70s and overnight lows in the 60s. These temperatures will persist through Saturday before a strong cold front pushes east and cools temperatures back to near average for this time of year. High temperatures on Sunday and into early next week will only climb into the 50s with overnight lows dropping into the 30s. Given the prolonged warmth the area has seen this week, the growing season has officially begun for all of the Ohio Counties in the CWA. With the cool down expected, will have to monitor for any frost potential early next week. && .AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/... A line of thunderstorms extends across southeast Michigan towards southern Lake Michigan at 0530Z and is moving generally east southeast. Thunderstorms are expected to be in the vicinity of Toledo and could produce strong to severe thunderstorm winds of 40-50 knots at the terminal with a wind shift to the northwest. We tried to time thunderstorms eastward across the area with the highest confidence in thunderstorms reaching the northern terminals and expecting the line to generally stall out before reaching CAK. Conditions are VFR ahead of the thunderstorms with MVFR or brief IFR visibilities expected in thunderstorms. If training of thunderstorms occurs, the lower conditions could linger for an hour or two. MVFR ceilings are possible for a few hours Wednesday morning as the rain tends to dissipate through 14Z. Several hours of heating on Wednesday will allow for thunderstorms to re-develop along the stalled out boundary. Expecting to see good coverage of thunderstorms on Wednesday afternoon between roughly 18Z in NW Ohio and 23Z in NE Ohio. Southwest winds will remain breezy for much of the period. Wind gusts have dropped off at a few locations and have included a brief window of low level wind sheer in the terminals with speeds of 45 knots at 2K feet. Thunderstorms will cause a wind shift to the northwest for several hours late tonight with southwest winds resuming on Wednesday morning. Outlook...Periods of non-VFR conditions are expected in showers and thunderstorms through Thursday. && .MARINE... A broken line of thunderstorms will cross Lake Erie early this morning and could be strong to severe. Thunderstorms will act to disrupt winds which could shift around to the northwest for a period of time. Winds will switch back around to the southwest on Wednesday at 10-20 knots with additional strong thunderstorms possible. Low pressure will track east across the Central Great Lakes on Thursday, with southwest winds veering to the northwest behind a cold front Thursday night. Southwest winds develop out of the southeast on Saturday and veer to southwesterly at 15-20 knots. Winds will be elevated at 20-25 knots behind the cold front Saturday night and a Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed heading into Sunday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for OHZ003-006>009-018- 019. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...04 AVIATION...10 MARINE...10  459 FXUS66 KPQR 150600 AAA AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 1100 PM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Updated aviation discussion. && .SYNOPSIS...A strong frontal boundary will move across the CWA through tonight, bringing widespread rainfall to the coast and the inland valleys. This front will also push snow levels down towards 2000-3500 ft and bring heavy snowfall to the Cascades and portions of the Cascade Foothills. Due to the expected snowfall impacts for the Cascades, have issued some winter weather hazard products, which start early this evening. Behind the front showers return along with a 15-30% chance for thunderstorms starting late Wednesday morning through Wednesday night. Afterwards, concerns shift to cooler overnight temperatures and possible frost/freeze conditions to round out the week. After a brief stint of dry and warmer weather Saturday, precipitation chances return by early next week. && .SHORT TERM...Now through Wednesday night...Current radar and satellite observations this afternoon show widespread cloud cover with rain moving east and south across our CWA. The source of the rain and clouds is a low pressure system, that is slowly moving southeastward from the Gulf of Alaska and towards the Pac NW. As this system continues to trek towards the region, precipitation as well as cooler conditions will slowly start to take hold. This will result in widespread rain for the lower elevations and the coast, along with wet snow for the Cascades. QPF values have changed very little over the past 24 hours and generally show a 36 hour QPF totals through Wednesday night of 0.75 to 1.25 inches across the Willamette Valley and Portland metro, 1.00 to 2.75 inches along the coast and Coast Range, and 1.20 to 3.00 inches across the Cascades. However, for the latter region, especially at pass level, the precipitation will likely be falling as snow for a good chunk of this event. So, lets talk about snow. The incoming system looks to push snow levels down towards 2000-2500 ft by very early Thursday morning and given that a robust slug of moisture will accompany the cold air, that means that snow is in the forecast for the Cascades and parts of the Cascade Foothills. Focusing on the Cascades above 3500 ft, roughly 12 to 22 inches of snow accumulation is expected. This looks to start around 5PM this afternoon through early Thursday morning. Highest snowfall totals are expected mainly above 3500-4000 ft. As for the Cascade Foothills, the primary area in question is the Clackamas County Cascade Foothills. 1 to 4 inches of snow accumulation is expected, with the highest accumulations above 1500 ft, this includes Mt. Hood Village and Zigzag, OR. 1 inch or less for locations around 1000 ft, which includes Sandy, OR. The time of concern for the Clackamas County Cascade Foothills is from 3AM to 11AM Wednesday. The latest NBM probabilities show a 75-90% probability of 12 inches or greater snowfall over a 48 hour period from this afternoon through Thursday afternoon at Santiam level and Willamette Pass, slightly lower (35-45%) at Government Camp. Overall, the highest amounts likely fall in the high Cascades from Marion to Lane County. The period to watch as far the greatest travel impacts are will be from 3AM to 11AM on Wednesday when snowfall rates in the heavier precipitation bands right along the front may exceed 1-1.5 in/hr. So, if you are planning to travel over the Cascades passes, particularly Wednesday morning, please prepare for winter-like travel conditions. One other interesting facet of the forecast we're watching is the potential for 1-3 hr period of dynamic cooling temporarily punching snow levels into the 500-1500ft range near sunrise Wednesday morning. This has been a feature hinted at by the last several runs of the higher resolution guidance like the HRRR and NAMNEST right on the back edge of the cold-frontal boundary where persistent heavier precipitation combined with cold air just above the surface (-5C at 850mb) could facilitate this process, assuming all the proper variables align. The areas of particular interest are southwest Washington into the Portland Metro and the higher coast range/Cascade valleys. If this were to occur elevations as low as 500ft could see a rain/snow mix or "chunky rain" for an hour or two with no impacts. The chances for a light slush-up in the grass gets higher once you reach 1500ft, particularly in the Cascade foothills/valleys, but due to the warm antecedent conditions most impacts remain 2000ft+. Progressing through Wednesday a showery post frontal environment quickly overtakes the region coupled with increasing instability during the afternoon as the core of the upper level low moves over the region. Most models show Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) values peaking around 200 to 500 j/kg, with very little Convective Inhibition (CIN) around -5 to 10 j/kg. These conditions are resulting in a 15-30% chance for thunderstorm development within the post-frontal environment across the CWA. The main time period of focus is 11AM to 7PM on Wednesday when heating between shower bands may be maximized. Convective Allowing Model (CAM) soundings are showing a skinny CAPE profile and along with cooler temperatures aloft, this does support tiny hail/graupel development with any thunderstorms that develop and given that when spring time thunderstorms develop within our CWA, they have a tendency to produce a lot of tiny 0.10-0.25" diameter (pea size) hail. Also, while hail/graupel might blanket surfaces, it will typically not linger, once the cell that produced it moves out of the area. To summarize, any of these pop-up thunderstorms may produce moderate to heavy rain, infrequent lightning, small hail/graupel, along with gusty and erratic winds. So, when thunder roars, go indoors or when you see a flash (of lightning), dash inside. With the loss of daytime heating thunderstorm chances decrease Wednesday night although showers likely persist. /42-99 .LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...By Thursday, the upper level low and associated front have left the CWA, but will leave the region under cooler conditions with increasing clearing. Thursday into Friday looks to have overnight lows below normal bottoming out in the mid 30s across the lowlands and spelling a potential for frost. Below freezing temperatures are even forecast for the higher coast range/Cascade valleys, including the Hood River Valley. The latest NBM probabilities for temperatures below 36 degrees F Wednesday night into Thursday morning for the Portland/Vancouver Metro is 10-30% chance. From the Portland/Vancouver Metro areas southward towards Salem and Eugene, OR, expect a 15-75% chance. For locations north of Vancouver, expect a 15-60%. Additionally, there is a 80-95% chance of at least freezing temperatures in the Upper Hood River Valley for Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Similar conditions may develop again Thursday night into Friday morning, though with similar probabilities. Looking towards the weekend, temperatures gradually warm, reducing these morning frost concerns. Ensembles show a shortwave ridge of high pressure moving quickly overhead on Saturday, but being quickly followed by another low pressure system on Sunday originating from the Gulf of Alaska. Now, beyond Sunday and into the start of next week, WPC Cluster Guidance is favoring this low holding just off the OR/WA coast or moving over the inland Pac NW, which means that cooler and moister conditions are favored for the start of next week. /42-99 && .AVIATION...Steady light to moderate rain continues to fill in over the area as a cold front drops southeast. IFR conditions along the coast with a mix of VFR and MVFR inland which is expected to trend toward MVFR as the front nears. Gusty southerly winds continue with gusts to around 30 kt for the coast and 20-25 kt inland through 10-15z as the front passes through. Rain transitions to showers behind the front Wednesday morning. Conditions along the coast trend more MVFR to VFR and will likely fluctuate with SCT to BKN CIGs around 2 kft and VIS reductions in more robust showers. Inland Conditions trend toward VFR but could briefly drop to MVFR or IFR within heavier showers. There is also a 20-30% chance for thunderstorms for all terminals so have added Prob20 groups for the late morning and afternoon. KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR conditions expected to persists until the old front passes through. Rain and gusty southwesterly winds also continue with gusts to around 20 kt. Conditions trend toward VFR after 12z as the front shifts southeast of the metro. Rain becomes showery with a 20-30% chance for thunderstorms after 18z. Have added a Prob30 group for thunderstorms for 18z and beyond. Robust showers or storms may briefly drop conditions to MVFR/IFR. -19 && .MARINE...Gusty southwest winds continue to increase this afternoon as a strong cold front approaches the coastal waters. Latest guidance increased winds enough to warrant a Gale Warning for the northern coastal waters, as well as the inner central waters and the Columbia River Bar. Expect southwest wind gusts up to 35 kt there, while elsewhere, widespread gusts to 30 kt is expected, with isolated gusts up to 35 kt possible, especially over the inner waters as the front impinges along the coast. The increased wind waves are expected to build seas to around 8 to 10 ft with a period of around 8-10 seconds. Seas remain steep and choppy through tonight. Behind the frontal boundary, expect an abrupt shift to the northwest as the front drops south overnight. Breezy northwest winds with gusts up to 20-25 kt continue through Wednesday as an area of low pressure drops along the Canadian coast toward the Puget Sound. This will also bring a 15-25% chance of thunderstorms over the waters through Wed evening. Seas are expected to persist at around around 8 to 10 ft on Wednesday, building slightly to around 10 to 12 ft Wed night as a northwest swell moves through the waters. The Small Craft Advisory remains in place into Thursday morning. High pressure then builds over the waters later this week as northerly winds return and seas gradually subside to around 3 to 6 ft Friday into Saturday. There is potential for another weather system to impact the waters later this weekend, possibly increasing winds and seas. /DH && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 11 AM PDT Wednesday for ORZ123. Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ126>128. WA...Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM PDT Thursday for WAZ211. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ210. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ251>253- 271>273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland  098 FXUS63 KICT 150601 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 101 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe thunderstorm threat this afternoon-evening, and again Wednesday afternoon-evening. - Additional thunderstorm chances and associated severe weather possible Friday afternoon-evening. - Well above average temperatures through Friday, cool down for the weekend. - Very high to extreme grassland fire danger west of I-135 today, and possibly again Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 220 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 THUNDERSTORMS: THIS AFTERNOON--EVENING...Scattered to at times numerous thunderstorms are possible after about 3-4pm, generally along/east of a line extending from Medicine Lodge to Hutchinson to McPherson, as low-level convergence drastically increases in response to a currently veered out dryline retreating rapidly back to the northwest. Of note...thick mid and upper level clouds are streaming in from the southwest (more widespread than forecast), which may limit peak heating, increase capping, support a later initiation time, and raise questions on how many thunderstorms are able to breach the cap. Nevertheless, a strong combination of buoyancy and deep layer shear will support supercells capable of all severe hazards with any storms that can form. Thinking the tornado threat will be greatest between roughly 5/6pm and 9/10pm with any discrete or semi-discrete supercells, as the low-level jet ramps up increasing low-level shear/SRH. Regarding storm mode/type...while an adequate component of the deep layer shear is oriented perpendicular to the dryline, there is a modest component oriented parallel as well, which should favor a gradual transition to mixed/linear storm mode as the evening progresses and with eastward extent, especially if storm coverage proves fairly numerous/widespread. Overnight, with increasing large scale ascent ahead of an approaching shortwave trough and the potential for decreasing convective inhibition, there could be additional thunderstorm development as far west as central KS in wake of this evening's departing activity. If capping doesn't prove too detrimental, shear/buoyancy combination would favor a continued severe weather threat. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON--EVENING...Despite the potential for numerous thunderstorms overnight, strong southerly flow ahead of the potent shortwave approaching from the west should be enough to adequately recover the pre-dryline airmass for additional thunderstorm chances Wednesday afternoon-evening, mainly east of the Kansas Turnpike. Given the stronger forcing, thinking storm initiation could be as early as 2-3pm. Another strong combination of buoyancy and deep layer shear should favor a severe threat, although we're thinking the strong forcing in concert with the shear vectors oriented mostly parallel to the dryline would likely support a mixed/messy/linear storm mode, which could tend to limit a higher-end severe threat. FRIDAY AFTERNOON--EVENING...Deterministic and ensemble consensus continues to support a reloading warm/moist/unstable sector by late week, as another western CONUS upper trough deepens. A sharpening dryline/cold front combination along with strong instability and strong shear look to be present. This could support another round of strong to severe thunderstorms as we head into late Friday. Still lots of uncertainty this far out regarding timing, placement, and amplitude of synoptic features, stay tuned. TEMPERATURES/WIND: Given rather persistent western CONUS troughing and associated lee troughing over the High Plains, breezy/gusty south winds and above average temperatures will persist through this entire work week. The warmest days look to be today, Thursday, and Friday when low-level thickness supports high temperatures in the 80s for most across the forecast area. As we head into the weekend, model consensus continues to support a cool down in wake of a strong cold front, with potential below average temperatures Saturday and Sunday, and even possible near freezing temperatures early Sunday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1228 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Showers and storms have moved out of the area with VFR conditions prevailing. Southerly winds will continue to gust up to 30 kts for the next few hours until around 09z. Low clouds are likely to settle in to CNU early this morning, reducing ceilings down to MVFR. Winds will pick up again late this morning into the afternoon with winds shifting to westerly in central KS. Showers and storms are possible again this afternoon and into the evening mainly in southeast KS. Continued the PROB30 for CNU and extended it until 02z with this issuance. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 220 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 TODAY...Low relative humidity and gusty southwest winds just west of a dryline will support VERY HIGH to EXTREME grassland fire danger west of Interstate 135. A red flag warning remains in effect through 8pm this evening west of I-135. FRIDAY...Another round of very high grassland fire danger is possible Friday afternoon generally west of Salina to Hutchinson. Stay tuned as we refine forecast details in the coming days. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADK AVIATION...GC FIRE WEATHER...ADK  402 FXUS65 KTFX 150601 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1201 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Windy conditions develop today in advance of a cold front, particularly over Southwestern Montana. - Widely scattered showers and even a rumble of thunder may accompany the front late this afternoon. - The cold front brings widespread snowfall to all elevations tonight into Thursday, though accumulating snow impacts will mostly be over and near areas of higher terrain. - Temperatures fall well below the seasonal average Thursday and Friday, with another round of scattered light snows on Friday. - A building upper level ridge of high pressure will bring a return to milder and dry conditions before unsettled conditions return next week. && .DISCUSSION... - Meteorological Overview: North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana will be on the western edge of an upper level ridge today, resulting in southerly flow aloft. This will bring slightly warmer temperatures to the area, as well as another day of windy conditions in Southwestern Montana. Instability will also increase, resulting in the potential for isolated locations to hear a rumble of thunder in the afternoon. The Rocky Mountain Front will see snowfall throughout the day, with heavier amounts in the higher elevations. As the ridge continues to move east, an upper level trough will begin to move in from the west coast, bringing an increase in atmospheric moisture. This evening into tonight a cold front will push down from the north, lowering temperatures. The cooler temperatures combined with increased moisture will bring snow showers along the I-90 Corridor late this afternoon into the early evening. North-central and Central Montana will begin to see rain showers in the evening, transitioning to more widespread snow during the overnight hours. Snowy/slushy roads will be most prevalent Thursday morning. Well-below seasonal average temperatures will be seen across North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana on Thursday, in thanks to the upper-level trough deepening over the Great Basin and the cold front. On Friday, North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana remain under the influence of the upper-level trough. This will cause temperatures to remain on the chillier side with lows in the teens and another round of snow showers Friday morning. As the trough moves to the east, an upper level ridge of high pressure to the west begins to build, allowing temperatures to warm in the afternoon and precipitation chances to decrease. The upper level ridge will move east over Montana on Saturday and Sunday and bring milder and drier weather across the region. Early next week the benign conditions continue until troughing brings increased shower activity by the middle of next week. - Dzomba - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: Gusty to strong winds over southwest MT today... A 30 to 50 kt H700 southwesterly jet will develop over southwest MT in advance of the approaching trough and cold front. Stronger end surface winds will be most pronounced over the narrow south to north oriented valleys and the exposed mountain peaks south of the I90 corridor. Criteria winds/gusts (40 mph/58 mph) look to be most widespread in the late afternoon and early evening hours when diurnal mixing, widely scattered convective showers, and the cold front itself will all promote at least a brief period of surface momentum transfer. Climatological anomaly indices continue to highlight this event with the ECMWF EFI sustained wind speed still generally ranging from 0.6 to 0.8 for the aforementioned locations, while gusts remain slightly higher at 0.7 to nearly 0.9. With this in mind the high wind watch for the Madison Valley and Beaverhead/W Madison lower elevations will be upgraded to a warning. The only change to the timing will be to extend it into the evening to cover the frontal passage and associated convection/momentum transfer. Widespread snow tonight into Thursday... Light snow will continue to increase today along the immediate eastern slopes of the Rocky Mountain Front as moisture increases H500 heights fall. Once the cold front clears the region this evening, the cold core aloft will be sufficient to support a period of widespread snow at all elevations tonight into Thursday. Impactful accumulations will generally be confined to areas over and near higher terrain, including the Rocky Mountain Front, the central island ranges, and the Madison/Gallatin mountains. Winter weather advisories were added to include most mountain areas. The winter storm watch continues for the Madison/Gallatin ranges and now runs through midnight Friday rather than the previous 6 am Friday morning expiration time. The cold north/northwesterly upslope flow over the Gallatin Valley is favorable for a at least a period of heavier snow, especially for the south and eastern portions of the valley. Given it's a weekday and the aforementioned portions of the valley currently have over 50% chance for 6 inches of snow, a winter storm watch was posted here. The most impactful period looks to occur late tonight through Thursday morning when precipitation will be heaviest and diurnal heating will be weakest. Impacts may include difficult travel due to slushy/snowy roads and reduced visibility, cold wet outback conditions, and even isolated power outages or tree damage. Snow begins to slowly diminish Thursday afternoon, but another shortwave looks to pass through and bring another round of light snow Thursday night into Friday. It's still uncertain on how widespread and impactful this will be, but the situation will continue to be monitored going forward. - RCG && .AVIATION... 15/06Z TAF Period A potent spring storm and series of cold front will move over/across the Northern Rockies over the next 24-48 hours, with the Pacific front ushering rain/snow showers from west to east across Southwest through North Central Montana from the late morning through afternoon hours on Wednesday. Following the passage of the Pacific front more steady precipitation will being to settle in for the remainder of the evening hours, especially across Southwest Montana, with a cold front pushing south of the Canadian border between 03-06z Thursday. Low-VFR/VFR conditions will fall to low-VFR across most terminals beyond 15-21z Wednesday, with the exception of the KWYS terminal where LIFR/IFR/MVFR conditions are expected over this timeframe. Southerly winds will be strong and gusty at the KEKS terminal between 15/15z and 16/03z, especially beneath shower activity. - Moldan && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 59 26 37 22 / 40 70 50 20 CTB 53 19 34 17 / 20 70 50 10 HLN 58 28 40 25 / 70 90 80 30 BZN 59 25 39 19 / 60 90 80 40 WYS 45 26 35 12 / 90 90 100 70 DLN 57 25 38 19 / 50 90 70 20 HVR 62 24 35 17 / 30 90 40 10 LWT 58 26 36 18 / 50 100 60 20 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT Thursday for East Glacier Park Region. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon MDT Thursday for Big Belt, Bridger and Castle Mountains-Little Belt and Highwood Mountains-Southern Rocky Mountain Front. Winter Storm Watch from this evening through Thursday evening for Gallatin and Madison County Mountains and Centennial Mountains. High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening for Beaverhead and Western Madison below 6000ft-Madison River Valley. Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Thursday afternoon for Gallatin Valley. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM MDT Thursday for Northwest Beaverhead County. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls  650 FXUS63 KTOP 150601 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 101 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... -A similar setup to yesterday means another Red Flag Warning behind the dryline and a threat for severe storms east of the boundary today. -Another round of storms is possible Wednesday, mainly in far eastern KS. -A very dynamic system impacts the region Friday, bringing another threat for severe weather. -Much cooler weather is expected this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 151 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Early this afternoon, water vapor satellite imagery showed an upper level trough extending from the central Rockies, southwest across AZ. A broad area of southwesterly mid-level flow of 45 to 60 KTS extended from northern Mexico, northeast across NM/west TX into the Plains and upper Midwest. Late this morning, a cold front extended from eastern MN, south- southwest across eastern NE, then southwest into eastern CO. A dryline line extended south-southwest from the cold front in eastern NE, to east of Marysville, to near ABI, then south-southwest to west of Anthony, KS, then southwest across far western OK. Ahead of the dryline dewpoints were in the lower to mid 60s, with upper 60 to lower 70 dewpoints across southeast KS. West of the dryline, dewpoints were in the lower 40s to lower 50s. Thia afternoon through Tonight: Interesting that the most CAMs are showing the richer moisture mixing out ahead of the dryline along and north of I-70. The richer surface moisture may only extend from near ICT, northeast across the southeast counties of the CWA, to the southeast of I-35. However, the NSSL-WRF and 4KM NAM shows thunderstorms developing along the dryline between Seneca and MHK. The other CAMs show thunderstorms developing along the dryline across north central OK/south central KS, then tracking northeast along and southeast of I-35. A surface low will deepen across western KS, thus the dryline will probably reach a Seneca, to MHK, to Abilene line by 5 PM before retrograding west this evening. Any discrete supercell that develops along the dryline late this afternoon and early evening will produce large hail, 2 inches or greater, localized damaging wind gusts, along with possible tornadoes. The environment ahead of the dryline south of I-70, will posses MLCAPES of 3000-3500 J/kg, effective shear of 50 KTS, and curved low-level hodographs that will produce stream-wise horizontal vorticity in the sfc-1KM depth for strong low-level vertical vorticity, once a storm's updraft tilts the horizontal vorticity into the vertical, then stretched. We will be doing a 19Z special sounding to see if some of the CAMs are correct in mixing out the richer moisture north of I-70 ahead of the dryline. Overall, I would say storm coverage will be greater south of I-70 with initial discrete supercells late this afternoon into the early evening, then line segments developing as scattered supercells merge, along with line segments from merging supercells across south central/north central OK that will move northeast across the southeast counties during the mid and late evening hours. Tonight, the dryline will retrograde west into north central and central KS. I can't rule out some isolated elevated thunderstorms late tonight into early Wednesday, as a 50 to 60 KT LLJ develops through the early morning hours, which could provide enough ascent for a few elevated storms. Wednesday through Wednesday night: The H5 trough across the central Rockies and southwest US will lift northeast across the Plains but will dampen as it moves east. The surface low will move northeast along the border into west central IA by 00Z. A Pacific cold front will overtake the dryline. The question will be how fast will the Pacific front shift east across the CWA. The NAM, ECMWF, and GFS show the Pacific front across most of the CWA by 21Z. Thunderstorms may develop across the southeast counties, but veering surface winds will probably cause a line of storms to develop. This line may produce isolated severe wind gusts in the southeast counties but most of the severe weather will be east of the CWA. Thursday, we will see a break in the thunderstorms, as an amplified H5 trough digs southeast from the Pacific northwest into the west central US. A down stream H5 ridge will move east across the Plains. The Pacific front will undergo frontolysis across southeast KS and northern OK on Thursday. The winds will become southerly through the day on Thursday. Friday through Saturday morning: The H5 trough across the west central US will dig southeast across the Plains Friday night into Saturday morning. Ahead of the H5 trough in the warm sector, thunderstorms will develop along the cold front and dryline during the afternoon hours. MLCAPE will probably be above 2000 J/KG and there will be good vertical wind shear as the the surface low deepens across west central KS during the afternoon hours. All the longer range models are in agreement though the GFS is a bit more amplified and progressive over the ECMWF and Canadian. The question will be the strength of forcing ahead of the H5 Trough. Strong ascent may allow for numerous storms to develop and these storms may congeal into a line of storms during the afternoon and evening hours. The line will move east out of the CWA late Friday night into Early Saturday morning. The weekend will be cooler behind the front with highs Saturday in the mid to upper 50s. There may be some light rain showers through the morning until the H5 trough shifts east of KS. More insolation will help high temperatures to warm into the mid 60s to around 70 degrees. Sunday morning there may be a freeze across the northern counties with lows of 29-30 degrees. The remainder of The CWA may see frost develop with lows of 33 to 36 degrees. An H5 ridge will move east across the Plains Monday and Tuesday. Expect a warm-up with highs in the lower to mid 70s Monday and mid 70s to around 80 on Tuesday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1253 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 As the BL continues to stabilize overnight, by early morning there may be a few hour window where low level stratus forms mainly over KTOP/KFOE terminals. This should begin to quickly scatter after sunrise and lift into the morning hours as the BL heats up. FROPA should take place around midday into the afternoon hours from west to east. The window for storms at the KTOP/KFOE terminals looks to be a few hours by late afternoon with too low confidence to include at this time. As the front pushes further east steadily through tomorrow evening, then expect winds to calm into the end of the period generally around sunset. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 345 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The Red Flag Warning has been issued for today in north- central KS due to low RH and strong south-southwest winds behind the dryline. These conditions will combine to create extreme fire danger again this afternoon. Minimum RH behind the dryline could quickly fall to below 20 percent as dew points drop. South- southwest winds will be sustained at 15 to 20 mph with gusts as high as 40 mph throughout the afternoon. Tomorrow a Pacific cold front will move through north central KS. The dewpoints will only be around 30 percent during the afternoon hours and westerly winds will be lighter. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Gargan AVIATION...Drake FIRE WEATHER...Teefey  999 FXUS63 KABR 150604 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 104 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warming trend continues. Temperatures today top out in the 70s (15 to 20 degrees above normal) and Thursday into the upper 70s to mid 80s (15 to 30 degrees above normal). - The combination of warm temperatures and southerly winds of 25 to 30 miles per hour result in High to Very High Grassland Fire Danger Thursday. A Fire Weather Watch is also in effect for late Thursday morning into the late afternoon. - A cold front will move through the area Thursday night, leading to below normal temperatures (highs in the 40s) and precipitation Friday and Saturday. Precipitation starts out as rain Friday afternoon before transitioning to snow as colder air moves in. Overall not a lot of moisture with this system. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1242 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Isolated elevated shower activity early this morning, with BUFKIT profiles and regional observations indicating ceilings up around 8-10kft or higher. NAM BUFKIT profiles also indicate a fairly dry layer of air below, so that will really limit what reaches the surface. Added sprinkles through the overnight. CAMS are also highlighting the northeast for another round of fog formation, and we've already seen Wheaton down to 1/4 mile. For Today, the weak wave responsible for the ongoing activity has shifted into western Minnesota, with a second wave over central Nebraska, both heading northeast with the influence now east of the CWA. We end up in broadly diffluent flow aloft as a stronger wave comes into the Pacific northwest. Good mixing conditions for the day with a light southwest component to the winds. HREF probability of exceeding 20 mph only tops out at 20-40% for a few hours in the morning when we first mix out, then drops to zero. NBM deterministic highs are about 1 to 4F below the 50th percentile, and with ample sun and mixing winds, bumped temperatures up. Afternoon humidity across much of the area will be from 20 to 30%, and the HREF probability of falling below 20% is actually from 40 to 60% across our west river counties. But again, winds are going to fall well below criteria for Red Flag. Across the east, mainly the far northeast, NAM BUFKIT profiles also indicate some weak/shallow convective instability. Profiles suggest convection limited to between 5 and 10kft which may be enough to generate moisture. CAMS only have a few blips. Have added a 20% chance up across the northeast. Wednesday night, flow aloft continues to be diffluent, resulting in a lee low forming over eastern WY/MT and the western Dakotas. This increased the gradient, though only about 10mb across the state. Increased flow is southerly, with 1/2km winds of 25 to 40kts. There will also be warm advection through the overnight hours, though no elevated instability is indicated in the NAM. As we continue into Thursday, flow aloft is southwesterly, with southwesterly low level flow, though the lee low weakens into more of an inverted trough stretching northeast to southwest across the state. Inverted V style profiles are depicted by the NAM, with a few j/kg CAPE above the 0C level, up around 12kft. No POPs with this profile, but along with the system derived winds being strong, this may add additional gustiness as a fire weather wrinkle. As for temperatures Thursday, again, NBM falls around the 10th percentile, with a 5 to 8 degree cool bias vs the NBM 50th percentile. This again is likely due to a significant thermal gradient across northwest South Dakota and south central North Dakota and the array of possible ensemble placements. Winds for most of the area during the day are also in a warm advection regime, meaning the NBM should provide the cap for highest wind gusts (outside of the aforementioned convection) so this will give us a good idea of whether we'll meet Red Flag. NBM gives us 50 to 70% probability to exceed 25 mph and a 30 to 50% probability for winds in excess of 30 mph. That means the potential for a fairly widespread Red Flag wind wise. For afternoon humidity, the deterministic NBM is around 20 to 25% with the far northwest and northeast up over 30%. Cold front moves through during the overnight hours, with a wind shift and increase. Strongest pressure rises are out in western South Dakota, but the gradient from southeast to northwest is about 16 to 20 mb. NAM/GFS BUFKIT profiles indicate status follows, with mixed winds in the 25 to 35kt range. Concern is that any ongoing fires will experience a sudden shift in trajectory. The gradient persists through Friday, at about 20mb across the state, keeping winds up. We still go from a standard deviation above climo for 850mb temperatures Thursday to a standard deviation below climo by Saturday, with a 30-40 degree temperature difference between highs Thursday in comparison to Friday/Saturday. Trends for moisture: NBM POPs have dropped, and shifted the total moisture west. Still only averaging a tenth of an inch or less. GEFS is likewise a tenth or two, with a few blip up around a half inch. NBM probability of a 1/4 inch are also down, up north of Mobridge its only about 30-40% with lower elsewhere. Profiles still suggest a transition to snow as well, but with ground/air temps wouldn't expect it to last. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1242 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions and winds around 10kts or less will continue over the next 24 hours. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for SDZ005>008-010-011-016>023-033>037-045-048- 051. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...07 AVIATION...06  316 FXUS64 KSJT 150605 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 105 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorm chances will persist into this afternoon, with a threat for severe storms each day. - A cold front is expected on Saturday, bringing low rain chances and considerably cooler temperatures for the upcoming weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1254 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Complex of thunderstorms continue across the Edwards Plateau early this morning, tracking northeast. This may affect portions of the Northwest Hill Country and will continue to watch it and update POPs ahead of it as needed this morning. For the rest of the day, a very similar setup to what we have seen on Monday and Tuesday. Unstable air mass across the area for the afternoon with CAPE values at or above 2500 J/kg. Dryline will become established and slide east to near the western borders of the Big Country and Concho Vally by mid/late afternoon. Again, convergence along the dryline is relatively weak and there is limited upper level support. If a storm can develop and sustain itself, it will have plenty of instability to work with and large hail will be possible. But trying to pin down if/where along the dryline a storm will actually develop and how widespread anything may be remains the uncertainty. Similarly to the yesterday, model blend POPs just seem excessively high considering the coverage seen in pretty much every CAM. Will knock down POPs across the board down into the 30-40% range. POPs can always be updated and increased later today if storms start to develop. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 1254 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Looks like mainly quiet weather for Thursday across the area as weak upper level ridging will be in control. The next strong storm system with a sharper dryline will move into the Central and Southern Plains Friday. Looks like the more organized severe weather will remain north of our area. However, isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across west central Texas during the late afternoon into Friday night. A cold front is south of the area Saturday morning with cooler and mainly dry weather this weekend into early next week. However, return southerly flow may result in a low chance of showers and a few thunderstorms early next week. Temperatures will be slightly above normal this week. Please keep up with the latest weather information as the month of April is severe weather season. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Convection continues across portions of the Edwards Plateau early this morning and may approach the KJCT terminal over the next few hours. Have continued the PROB30 down there for now, but have kept the remainder of the terminals dry for now. Given the convection to the south and the extensive high cloudiness, have also pushed back the onset of low clouds (MVFR) cigs across the rest of the terminals by a few hours, although still think most of them will eventually see these MVFR cigs by near or shortly after sunrise. Otherwise, CAMs continue to be widely separated in if/when convection redevelops this afternoon. Given the very large uncertainty, will leave any mention of convection out of the forecast for the afternoon hours for now. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 85 63 88 66 / 40 10 10 10 San Angelo 86 62 88 65 / 30 10 10 10 Junction 81 61 87 61 / 50 10 10 0 Brownwood 80 62 86 64 / 40 10 10 10 Sweetwater 87 62 90 66 / 30 0 10 10 Ozona 83 62 85 64 / 20 10 10 10 Brady 80 62 85 64 / 50 10 10 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION...07  527 FXUS61 KALY 150607 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 207 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The Marginal Severe Weather Risk (level 1 of 5) was upgraded to a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for areas near and north of I-90 on Thursday. Damaging winds remains the primary hazard from any severe storm. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Isolated to scattered areas of showers and thunderstorms today through tomorrow with a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms in the eastern Catskills and mid-Hudson Valley today with a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for areas near and north of I-90 tomorrow. Damaging winds is the primary hazard from any severe storm both days. 2. The threat for widespread impactful weather is low Friday through early next week with temperatures trending below normal early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Our "ridge roller" pattern continues through today as a quasi- stationary boundary remains draped across eastern NY and western New England with fast zonal flow aloft. A decaying MCS from the Great Lakes will track eastward this morning resulting in a period of showers and potentially isolated storms late this morning into early P.M for areas mainly north of I-90. The quasi-stationary boundary lingers overhead this afternoon which should keep skies rather cloudy, especially from I-90 northward, and suppresses boundary layer mixing. While temperatures will still run above normal by mid-April standards, most will be lower compared to yesterday when many hit 80 for the first time in 2026. The exception is the mid-Hudson Valley and NW CT which should remain just south of the boundary allowing for breaks of P.M sun and temperatures to warm into the low to mid 80s. With plenty of low-level moisture still around, the sunshine should generate sufficient instability with guidance suggesting 1000-1500J/kg of SB CAPE. This combined with the fast flow aloft supporting deep layer shear values 40-50kts and steepening mid- level lapse rates 6-6.5C/km presents a favorable environment for organized convection focused in the eastern Catskills and mid- Hudson Valley where SPC maintains its marginal risk (level 1 of 5). However, overall forcing remains limited this afternoon as guidance shows just some very weak shortwaves tracking within the fast flow. CAMs match this thinking showing isolated to widely scattered shower/storm activity so capped POPs at chance for most areas. Should sufficient forcing allow isolated convection to develop in the marginal risk area, an isolated or two storm could become severe with damaging winds the primary hazard. We trend POPs upwards to likely and even categorical tonight when a more pronounced shortwave arrives. This should support more organized areas of showers and some embedded thunderstorms but given the overnight timing, the severe weather potential remains low. For Thursday, our quasi-stationary boundary lifts northward near or just north of I-90 as a pronounced shortwave trough digs into the Great Lakes with the low-level thermal gradient tightening. Areas south of the boundary look to break out in sun and with dew points remaining rather moist, the insolation will again contribute to 500 - 1000 J/kg of SB CAPE. Again, the fast flow aloft should support rather high deep layer shear values and with good agreement for stronger shortwaves or "ridge rollers" tracking within the fast zonal flow, there is increasing confidence that the stronger low and mid-level forcing will likely generate areas of showers/thunderstorms Thurs afternoon into the early evening. With deep layer shear vectors oriented parallel to the boundary, a linear storm mode should be favored with damaging winds the primary hazard from any strong to severe storm. SPC has upgraded the severe weather risk to a slight (level 2 of 5) for areas near and north of I-90 where the stronger forcing exists with a marginal risk for most of eastern NY into western New England. KEY MESSAGE 2... After our stretch of seasonably warm temperatures through Saturday, a potent cold front sweeps through the region on Sunday resulting in a widespread period of rain followed by much cooler temperatures early next week. With the latest NBM probabilistic guidance showing only a 20 to 40% chance for 24 hour rainfall amounts through 8PM Sunday to exceed 0.50" across the area, flooding impacts are unlikely. However, there is medium to high confidence that temperatures on Monday drop below normal with the latest NBM probabilistic guidance showing less than a 20% chance for temperatures across most of eastern NY and western New England to rise above 50 degrees. The potential for impactful weather remains low Friday through early next week. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Thru 06Z Thursday...The cold front has become stationary over northern NY and New England early this morning near KGFL. The skies have cleared with some sct-bkn cirrus around. The recent wet ground and light to calm winds will promote a period of radiational IFR/LIFR mist/fog at KGFL and also at KPSF between 08Z-12Z/Wed. Some MVFR stratus may move in at KALB between 09Z-13Z/Wed with cigs about 2.5 kft AGL. We used a TEMPO group to address the possibility of stratus. KPOU should remain VFR with sct-bkn cirrus. A weakening batch of showers will approach KALB-KPSF northward to KGFL between 13Z-17Z/Wed. We brought some showers in with PROB30 groups at KALB/KGFL with MVFR cigs and vsbys. KPSF/KPOU were kept VFR with conditions improving for KPSF to VFR levels. Expecting VFR conditions most of the afternoon for KALB-KPSF south to KPOU with sct-bkn cumulus/stratocumulus 4-5 kft AGL with some lingering MVFR clouds at KGFL. Another disturbance moves along the front towards 23Z/Wed to 05Z/Thu. Some showers/thunderstorms may impact KPOU with MVFR conditions and we used a PROB30 there and further north to KALB/KPSF, as showers from 02Z-06Z/Thu. West to southwest winds decrease to 5 KT or less early this morning and then increase from the south to southwest at less than 10 KT in the late morning through the afternoon. Outlook... Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Sunday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures(Year Set): Today April 15: Albany: 86(2003) Glens Falls: 84(2003) Poughkeepsie: 84(2003) Thursday April 16: Albany: 91(2012) Glens Falls: 89(2002) Poughkeepsie: 91(2012) && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...31 AVIATION...15 CLIMATE...07  975 FXUS62 KMHX 150611 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 211 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes made. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Above to well above normal temperatures will prevail through the entire week with the potential for record breaking temperatures each day through Saturday. 2) Drought conditions and elevated fire concerns persist through the end of the week, with the next meaningful chance of rain not until Sunday 3) Cold front to bring a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday, followed by much cooler conditions early next week && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Above normal to near record temperatures continue to be favored into this weekend thanks to a warm southwesterly low- level flow beneath notably strong ridging aloft. This should equate to highs in the upper 80s to near 90 each day inland, with 70s to low 80s along the coast. Temperatures each day may be moderated some by convective debris clouds, but the only real impact here is that it may lower the risk of records being tied or broken at any one location. For perspective, normal highs for mid-April are in the low to mid 70s inland, and upper 60s to low 70s along the coast. We won't be anywhere near those normal values as this stretch of anomalous warmth continues to drag on. Please see the CLIMATE section below for additional information. KEY MESSAGE 2...Drought conditions continue to plague the entire Southeast U.S., with rainfall amounts since March 1 running about 10- 50% of normal. Locally here in ENC, this equates to rainfall totals running about 2-4" below normal over that same time period. Almost all of ENC remains in Severe Drought (D2), with a small part of Martin County in Extreme Drought (D3). To give a little more perspective, most climate sites in the Southeast U.S., including here in ENC, haven't seen measurable precipitation in almost 10 days during what would normally be a wetter time of year. Unusually warm conditions and persistent ridging aloft will only act to exacerbate drought conditions, with meaningful rainfall unlikely through the end of the week. Looking further out in time, longer-range guidance suggests this dry pattern may last at least another 1-2 weeks, with a pattern change possible by late April or early May. Given the ongoing drought, fire weather will continue to be a concern until a more substantial rain event occurs. An Increased Fire Danger statement has been issued for today, and additional statements or fire weather headlines may be needed through the week and into the weekend. Of note, increasing winds ahead of, and behind, this weekend's cold front could be problematic, especially for any fire starts. A statewide burn bans remains in effect for all of North Carolina, with additional fire restrictions beginning today on all four national forests in NC. Please see statements from the Forest Service for additional information. KEY MESSAGE 3...Over the upcoming weekend, the persistent ridging of late is forecast to briefly break down long enough to allow a cold front to move through the Carolinas. There may be just enough low- level moisture advection ahead of the front to support a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. While guidance remains consistent in this potential, rainfall amounts do not look overly impressive or "drought-denting" in any way. The latest ensemble guidance suggests about 0.10"-0.20" of rain. While instability currently looks modest, at best, any thunderstorms that develop could produce higher amounts, but this would be over smaller areas. While instability is currently forecast to be modest, deep layer shear of 30-40kt would be supportive of organized convection. Machine learning guidance shows a fairly weak signal for severe thunderstorm potential, but we'll continue to monitor this risk as the weekend draws closer. Behind the cold front, a substantially cooler airmass will move into the region, with local highs dropping back down closer to what is normal for this time of year. This means highs in the 60s and 70s, with lows dropping back down into the 40s. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Primarily a persistence forecast for aviation interests this morning as pattern remains static from yesterday. High pressure offshore anchored offshore will continue to encourage southwesterly winds during the overnight hours, which will discourage any widespread fog formation. Like the past few evenings, localized areas of decoupling could see some shallow and brief visibility restrictions most likely between 10-12z. Winds will primarily be out of the SW with gusts around 15-20 kt beginning mid to late morning as deeper mixing ensues. An active sea breeze bringing a shift to Sly winds as it pushes inland through the afternoon and early evening hours, with a brief window of enhanced gusts near 20 kt immediately behind the boundary. Outlook: Pred VFR conditions expected through the period with a more summertime pattern persisting through the week. Stronger winds likely in the coming days with tightening thermal gradient, most likely felt in the afternoons and evenings. An approaching front on Sunday will likely bring the strongest winds of the period and renewed shower and thunderstorm chances. && .MARINE... The southwesterly flow regime of late is expected to continue for several more days across all ENC waters. Within this regime, wind gusts will occasionally bump up against 25kt (as was observed at several marine observation sites yesterday afternoon and evening). The thermal gradient looks to be a bit stronger today and Thursday, with a bit more frequency to the occurrence of 25kt gusts. This may necessitate a short-fused Small Craft Advisory for a portion of our waters, especially on Thursday. For the coastal waters, seas of 3-5 ft will be common, especially within the persistent and slightly stronger southwest flow pattern. Outlook: South to southwest winds are expected to build over the weekend, especially on Sunday, as a cold front approaches from the west. A period of 25-30kt winds appears likely both ahead of, and behind, the cold front. There continues to be at least a modest signal for gale-force gusts with this front as well. Seas are forecast to peak in the 6-9 ft range with this front. Scattered thunderstorms may accompany the front as well. && .CLIMATE... Record High temps for 4/15 (Wednesday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 94/1972 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 84/1922 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 96/1922 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 80/1964 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 92/1941 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 93/2006 (NCA ASOS) Record High temps for 4/16 (Thursday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 92/1972 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 78/1994 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 92/1972 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 82/2006 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 92/2006 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 91/1972 (NCA ASOS) Record High temps for 4/17 (Friday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 91/1976 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 83/2012 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 92/1972 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 82/1976 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 91/1972 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 91/2006 (NCA ASOS) Record High temps for 4/18 (Saturday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 90/2002 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 82/1995 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 93/2002 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 85/1976 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 92/2002 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 92/1976 (NCA ASOS) Record High temps for 4/19 (Sunday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 91/1985 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 81/1985 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 92/1985 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 82/1976 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 96/1917 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 91/1985 (NCA ASOS) && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RM AVIATION...MS MARINE...RM  201 FXUS62 KCHS 150611 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 211 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The Aviation Section has been updated for the 06Z TAF issuance. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Dry weather and above-normal temperatures will continue through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry weather and above-normal temperatures will continue through the weekend. Prominent ridging aloft and subtropical high pressure at the surface will continue to support dry weather and above-normal temperatures through the weekend. Temperatures will range into the upper 80s to low 90s this afternoon and through the weekend. These values would be on the order of 10 degrees (or more) above normal. High temperatures could approach the daily records today, with the best chances of reaching records on Friday and Saturday (see Climate section below). The beaches will feel considerably cooler (possibly 10 to 15 degrees cooler) with onshore flow and water temperatures remaining in the mid-60s. The combination of well above normal temperatures and no rainfall will only serve to further worsen ongoing Extreme (D3) drought conditions highlighted by the U.S. Drought Monitor. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 15/06z TAF Discussion: KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR for much of the 06z TAF period. Some shallow ground fog could develop just before daybreak similar to the past several mornings. No meaningful impacts are expected, although a brief period of MVFR vsbys could occur. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR. && .MARINE... Atlantic high pressure centered well offshore will maintain a southerly flow regime into Saturday. This pattern favors robust sea breeze surges each afternoon with the highest winds remaining confined to areas near the land/sea interface as well as the Charleston Harbor during the mid-afternoon to early evening hours. Gusts in these areas could reach as high as 20 kt at times. A strong cold front is expected to push across the coastal waters Sunday which will bring a dramatic increase in both winds and seas, likely reaching as high as 25-30 kt with gusts near gale force. Small Craft Advisories will most certainly be needed with Gale Watches/Warnings possible, especially over the 20-60 NM offshore zones. Rip Currents: A moderate risk of rip currents is in place for all beaches through Thursday. The combination of 2-3 ft swell with a period of ~10 seconds, moderate onshore winds and an increasing astronomical influence from an approaching full moon will be enough to support a higher rip current risk. An elevated risk for rip currents will likely persist into the weekend and especially into early next week as a pinched gradient, northeast wind event develops behind a strong cold front. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: April 16: KSAV: 92/1967 April 17: KCHS: 91/1967 KCXM: 86/2006 KSAV: 95/1967 April 18: KCHS: 92/1967 KSAV: 93/1967 April 19: KSAV: 92/1968 Record High Minimum Temperatures: April 19: KCHS: 66/1975 KSAV: 69/1880 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Dennis  318 FXUS63 KMPX 150611 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 111 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few thunderstorms possible in southern Minnesota from late afternoon to evening. Most storms stay to the southeast in northeast Iowa and southern Wisconsin. - Isolated showers possible Wednesday, becoming more likely in southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin Wednesday night. - Another larger system arrives Friday and lingers into Saturday. Initial thunderstorms could be strong to severe, with cooler temperatures on the western side of the system bringing a chance for a wintry mix of rain/snow into Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A broad line of weak showers that have mostly resulted in virga is stretched across south-central Minnesota from Marshall through the northern Metro, with pockets of clearing amidst what is otherwise mostly cloudy skies this afternoon. Satellite imagery shows some agitated cumulus clouds along a warm front from central to northeastern Iowa which is expected to be the focus for another round of severe weather later today. Unlike yesterday, the warm front is not going to make it to Minnesota except for perhaps the far southeastern corner, with our environment less favorable due to northerly winds and weak subsidence stemming from the backing wind profile. The only way we see a few storms this far north would be storms forming in north-central Iowa and progressing northwards, rather than forming in our area and moving out. HRRR forecast soundings from Albert Lea around 21z closest to the warm front (for our area) show meager few hundreds of J/KG SBCAPE with a lack of a defined mixed layer, with low level shear in the single digits. Much like yesterday, we do have some upper level shear thanks to increasing winds aloft, however this is in direct competition with the northerly cooling/drying winds in the lower levels. Lapse rates are less favorable than yesterday coinciding with the weaker instability, on the order of around 7 degrees/km from 850-500mb. Overall, the environment is significantly less favorable for our area than yesterday thanks to the position of the warm front and competing forcings over us, resulting in a much lower chance for both strength and frequency of storms. Patchy dense fog is once again possible overnight, however should be less in terms of both coverage and peak intensity compared to this morning thanks to slightly stronger surface winds and stronger radiational cooling needed to produce the truly dense fog, which seems less likely given persistent lower level cloud cover overnight. Weak rain chances linger in southern Minnesota tomorrow into Thursday stemming from a quick moving shortwave trough sliding west to east across the area, however lack of a surface response and therefore limited moisture advection means we likely miss any showers for the majority of the area. Thursday looks to be the best overall day for outdoor activities this week with temperatures in the 70s and partly to mostly sunny skies ahead of our next system incoming on Friday. Speaking of which, an upper level trough spanning most of the western American Rockies will spin up a surface low over Colorado by early Friday morning, ejecting into the plains before tracking towards Iowa and southern Minnesota. There are still some pretty significant wobbles possible within the track, however the current consensus would bring the broad surface low directly towards our CWA, resulting in lower level warm air and moisture advection northwards Friday morning. This will enhance instability and chances for thunderstorms, and we could end up seeing some severe weather given the strong forcing from the synoptic scale features as long as they end up phasing with the surface low. The lingering uncertainty is due to the track of the low as well as how broad it ends up being, with a broader low resulting in weaker forcing and an overall less favorable environment, so we will be watching the next few days of model runs closely to see how things evolve over time. The best chance for storms looks to be along and just ahead of the surface low, timing wise mid morning to evening Friday. Most guidance attempts to eject the surface low towards northern Lake Superior, which would then wrap cooler central Canadian air back towards the region and could even introduce a wintry mix of rain/snow as temperatures rapidly cool behind the cold front Friday night into Saturday. Surface temperatures overnight look to drop to near freezing but rebound back into at least the 40s on Saturday/Sunday, meaning any wintry mix would be melting during the day and does not look to stick. Based off the longer range outlook, this would look to be our last flakes of the season with temperatures near normal through the end of the month on the GEFS/EPS. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 111 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Areas of fog have developed across western MN. A larger bank of IFR stratus and fog exists across northern MN and WI and is slowly building southwest. Scattered mid level clouds are decreasing. The fog should become more widespread during the next several hours, but confidence is low at each TAF site. Best chances for IFR fog after 08-10Z will be AXN, STC, RNH and EAU. KMSP...Removed the fog early this morning. It appears the best chances will remain north and east. Some shallow ground fog is still possible, but conditions are less favorable than Tuesday morning for persistent dense fog. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR. Wind S 5-10kts. FRI...VFR early, then MVFR/TSRA likely late in the afternoon. Wind SE 10-15 kts shifting NW 10-15G25kts. SAT...MVFR cigs. Chance IFR/-SN. Wind NW 15G25-30kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TDH AVIATION...Borghoff  780 FXUS63 KARX 150613 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 113 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of strong to severe storms possible today and tonight, primarily affecting northeast Iowa into southwest Wisconsin with potentially damaging wind and large. Isolated tornado threat cannot be ruled out. - Break in storms and rainfall expected Thursday as linear storm mode potential increases for Friday afternoon and night. While it remains too far out to nail down details, all hazards look possible with enhanced forcing and tapping into the unstable airmass. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1217 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Ongoing Early Morning Storms: Tuesday's low level trough abandoned 1" PWATs (GOES derived) across the southeastern 3/4 of the forecast area, permitting the overnight storm threat to lie just south of the forecast area, due to enhanced forcing. Overnight storm initiation observed on DMX/OAX radar is evident of the lingering boundary as DMX VWP light north winds opposes TOP/ICT/EAX 925mb winds of 35+ kts. Fortunately, as the storms progress north towards the forecast area, a drier, colder airmass will limit overall strength. Unfortunately, areas that received heavy rainfall Tuesday night will likely see ongoing storm potential through the early morning hours potentially causing flooding in spots where strongest storms were realized and caused heaviest rainfall. Strong to Severe Storm Threat Today & Tonight: Strong to severe storm threat increases across the southern half of the forecast area this afternoon and evening as a potentially deepening low pushes northeast through the Central Plains towards the Mississippi River Valley. Similar to both Monday and Tuesday, meridional advection of the warmer, moister airmass through the late morning hours increases meager initial storm chances before the unstable airmass takes shape through the afternoon. A feedback loop between the deepening cyclone and the frontal boundary raises questions of duration and northern extent of storms. Therefore, overall confidence remains low due to differing solutions in strength of meso cyclogenesis lifting through northeast Iowa into southwest Wisconsin through the afternoon. Ongoing late morning observations of surface winds and progression of synoptic forcing will iron out further details however. The most locally widespread and potentially strong solution (HRRR/RAP) keeps an open, albeit tightening wave as it nears the forecast area, sufficiently strengthening to abate the drier air attempting to push from northwest to southeast. This solution perpetuates local storm chances across the southern half of the forecast area through the afternoon, evening, tonight, and early Thursday morning. Fortunately, associated temperature sounding profiles show mostly elevated storms, limiting tornado risk with very long, straight, hodographs raising wind threat concerns with secondary hazard of large hail. Although, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out given stretching of vorticity along the near surface frontal boundary. Furthermore, this solution suggests an initially congealed storm mode through the day becoming linear as the dry punch pushes through tonight as the meso low provides additional forcing for storms through Thursday morning. This is an outlier solution at the current juncture and given the proclivity for the HRRR to jog north/south in its solutions depending on initialization time, bears awareness rather than raw belief. Higher confidence situation in storms grazing our southern periphery this afternoon and eventually exiting east through the evening hours as the drier air quickly pushes threats south and east of the forecast area. Regardless, all will depend on previous storms which in turn depend on ongoing storms early this morning seen strewn across central Iowa. Storm Chances Return Friday Afternoon I& Night: A break in storm chances on Thursday is expected as shortwave ridging allows today's drier air to the northwest to advect southeast through the local forecast area. Subsequent longwave troughing, seen in GOES WV imagery over the Pacific Northwest is expected to phase through the Central Plains Thursday, enhancing low level moisture transport into the Northern Plains Friday. Therefore, ample forcing and instability progresses east causing linear storm mode across the forecast area Friday. Unfortunately, machine learning severe weather forecast models have drastically increased local probabilities nearing 50% for the southern half of the forecast area. Current confidence is limited due to influence of diurnal heating to potential timing of frontal passage locally. Will require close monitoring in coming forecasts. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1217 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Similar overnight aviation impacts expected as Monday and Tuesday. The warm, moist airmass over the colder ground raises widespread fog concerns, potentially simply MIFG or BCFG instead of full LIFR impacts. Given the very shallow expectations, have opted for IFR visibilities at both TAF sites in a limited window. However, the very shallow nature of saturation limits overall confidence in either LIFR or VFR. Storm chances progress northeast through the forecast area this morning, afternoon, and potentially again tonight. Current confidence keeps impacts south of both TAF sites from northeast Iowa into southwest Wisconsin however any northern shift may result in scattered storms affecting either TAF site. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1217 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Fortunately, heaviest rainfall Tuesday remained south of Monday's heaviest rainfall, easing overall flooding concerns. Therefore, no changes in river flood headlines compared to previous forecasts. Tuesday's rainfall unfortunately slightly affected upstream of more locally flashier rivers in northeast Iowa (Turkey River) southeast Minnesota, and southwest Wisconsin (Kickapoo River). While initial responses on these rivers haven't been overly concerning overnight, subsequent storm chances this morning through tonight raise concern should they frequent these same areas. Similarly, ongoing river flooding in central and west-central Wisconsin is at risk should storms be realized farther north. Short reprieve in local precipitation chances Thursday ceases for Friday as the anomalously moist airmass returns for strong to severe storms pushing southeast. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JAR AVIATION...JAR HYDROLOGY...JAR  973 FXUS61 KALY 150614 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 214 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The Marginal Severe Weather Risk (level 1 of 5) for today was expanded a bit to cover most areas south of I-90. The Marginal Severe Weather Risk (level 1 of 5) for tomorrow was upgraded to a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for areas near and north of I-90 on Thursday. Damaging winds remains the primary hazard from any severe storm. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Isolated to scattered areas of showers and thunderstorms today through tomorrow with a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms mainly south of I-90 today with a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for areas near and north of I-90 tomorrow. Damaging winds is the primary hazard from any severe storm both days. 2. The threat for widespread impactful weather is low Friday through early next week with temperatures trending below normal early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Our "ridge roller" pattern continues through today as a quasi- stationary boundary remains draped across eastern NY and western New England with fast zonal flow aloft. A decaying MCS from the Great Lakes will track eastward this morning resulting in a period of showers and potentially isolated storms late this morning into early P.M for areas mainly north of I-90. The quasi-stationary boundary lingers overhead this afternoon which should keep skies rather cloudy, especially from I-90 northward, and suppresses boundary layer mixing. While temperatures will still run above normal by mid-April standards, most will be lower compared to yesterday when many hit 80 for the first time in 2026. The exception is the mid-Hudson Valley and NW CT which should remain just south of the boundary allowing for breaks of P.M sun and temperatures to warm into the low to mid 80s. With plenty of low-level moisture still around, the sunshine should generate sufficient instability with guidance suggesting 1000-1500J/kg of SB CAPE. This combined with the fast flow aloft supporting deep layer shear values 40-50kts and steepening mid- level lapse rates 6-6.5C/km presents a favorable environment for organized convection focused in the northern/eastern Catskills, mid-Hudson Valley, NW CT and southern Berkshire County where SPC expanded its marginal risk (level 1 of 5) a bit compared to yesterday. However, overall forcing remains limited this afternoon as guidance shows just some very weak shortwaves tracking within the fast flow. CAMs match this thinking showing isolated to widely scattered shower/storm activity. We therefore capped POPs at chance for most areas. Should sufficient forcing allow isolated to widely scattered convection to develop in the marginal risk area, an isolated or two storm may become severe with damaging winds the primary hazard. We trend POPs upwards to likely and even categorical tonight when a more pronounced shortwave arrives. This should support more organized areas of showers and some embedded thunderstorms but given the overnight timing, the severe weather potential remains low. For Thursday, our quasi-stationary boundary lifts northward near or just north of I-90 as a pronounced shortwave trough digs into the Great Lakes with the low-level thermal gradient tightening. Areas south of the boundary look to break out in sun and with dew points remaining rather moist, the insolation will again contribute to 500 - 1000 J/kg of SB CAPE. Again, the fast flow aloft should support rather high deep layer shear values and with good agreement for stronger shortwaves or "ridge rollers" tracking within the fast zonal flow, there is increasing confidence that the stronger low and mid-level forcing will likely generate areas of showers/thunderstorms Thurs afternoon into the early evening. With deep layer shear vectors oriented parallel to the boundary, a linear storm mode should be favored with damaging winds the primary hazard from any strong to severe storm. SPC has upgraded the severe weather risk to a slight (level 2 of 5) for areas near and north of I-90 where the stronger forcing exists with a marginal risk for most of eastern NY into western New England. KEY MESSAGE 2... After our stretch of seasonably warm temperatures through Saturday, a potent cold front sweeps through the region on Sunday resulting in a widespread period of rain followed by much cooler temperatures early next week. With the latest NBM probabilistic guidance showing only a 20 to 40% chance for 24 hour rainfall amounts through 8PM Sunday to exceed 0.50" across the area, flooding impacts are unlikely. However, there is medium to high confidence that temperatures on Monday drop below normal with the latest NBM probabilistic guidance showing less than a 20% chance for temperatures across most of eastern NY and western New England to rise above 50 degrees. The potential for impactful weather remains low Friday through early next week. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Thru 06Z Thursday...The cold front has become stationary over northern NY and New England early this morning near KGFL. The skies have cleared with some sct-bkn cirrus around. The recent wet ground and light to calm winds will promote a period of radiational IFR/LIFR mist/fog at KGFL and also at KPSF between 08Z-12Z/Wed. Some MVFR stratus may move in at KALB between 09Z-13Z/Wed with cigs about 2.5 kft AGL. We used a TEMPO group to address the possibility of stratus. KPOU should remain VFR with sct-bkn cirrus. A weakening batch of showers will approach KALB-KPSF northward to KGFL between 13Z-17Z/Wed. We brought some showers in with PROB30 groups at KALB/KGFL with MVFR cigs and vsbys. KPSF/KPOU were kept VFR with conditions improving for KPSF to VFR levels. Expecting VFR conditions most of the afternoon for KALB-KPSF south to KPOU with sct-bkn cumulus/stratocumulus 4-5 kft AGL with some lingering MVFR clouds at KGFL. Another disturbance moves along the front towards 23Z/Wed to 05Z/Thu. Some showers/thunderstorms may impact KPOU with MVFR conditions and we used a PROB30 there and further north to KALB/KPSF, as showers from 02Z-06Z/Thu. West to southwest winds decrease to 5 KT or less early this morning and then increase from the south to southwest at less than 10 KT in the late morning through the afternoon. Outlook... Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Sunday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures(Year Set): Today April 15: Albany: 86(2003) Glens Falls: 84(2003) Poughkeepsie: 84(2003) Thursday April 16: Albany: 91(2012) Glens Falls: 89(2002) Poughkeepsie: 91(2012) && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...31 AVIATION...15 CLIMATE...07  181 FXUS64 KCRP 150615 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 115 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 112 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Moderate risk of rip currents and periods of minor coastal flooding will persist, increasing towards the end of the week - Very warm to hot conditions through Saturday. Much cooler Sunday/Monday - Rain chances return this weekend with an approaching cold front. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 112 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Dryline remains west of the area for the remainder of tonight, and convection should remain west and north of our area through the night, though a storm or two could approach northern Webb county toward sunrise. Similar to Tuesday morning, would expect a few streamer showers to develop in the Coastal Plains Wednesday morning and again Thursday morning with the persistent onshore flow and moisture convergence near the coast. Mainly trace amounts of rain would be expected but a spotty few hundredths could happen. Otherwise expect mainly dry conditions through Friday. Temperatures will continue to climb a degree or two each day with well above normal temperatures, especially inland where highs in the mid 90s are expected Thursday and Friday. We'll look toward a pattern change this weekend as a cold front moves out of the Rockies, heading our way. A few showers will be possible in the Coastal Plains Saturday morning, but better changes (30-50%) come Saturday night into Sunday ahead of the front. At this time rainfall amounts aren't especially impressive - mainly under half an inch. Where the highest totals are is unclear as guidance differs on how much of the dry air gets this far south. Behind the shallow front, isentropic lift will set up for Monday into Tuesday. Current PoPs for Monday and Monday night sitting around 20-30%, but isentropic lift looks fairly impressive so think we'll see a gradual increase in these over the next few days. As with most isentropic scenarios, accumulation will be light these days. Much cooler temperatures can be expected for Sunday and Monday. Highs will be mainly in the 70s, but with a thick cloud cover, can't rule out some highs in the 60s, especially west. Temperatures will gradually increase Tuesday into Wednesday as onshore flow returns. Continue to watch coastal flooding potential, but at least for tonight through Wednesday we should stay below these levels. A gradual increase in tide levels is expected late in the week, and we could be looking at advisory level conditions Friday into the weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 112 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 MVFR ceilings are expected tonight with brief periods where they can scatter out resulting in periods of VFR. Predominate VFR conditions are expected tomorrow morning and continuing through the evening. There is a low chance for MVFR ceilings for tomorrow night. Winds will increase tomorrow afternoon and decrease after sunset. && .MARINE... Issued at 112 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A Moderate to Fresh (BF 4-5) onshore flow will persist through Thursday. A strong (BF 6) onshore flow is expected to develop across all marine zones on Friday with advisory conditions likely. Winds relax Saturday, then shift to the northeast and become strong late Saturday night into early Sunday in the wake of a cold front. Low rain chances (<~15%) expected through the end of the workweek but increase this weekend as the cold front moves across the region. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 112 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 The chance for wetting rains through the work week are very low (<10%) along with continued above normal temperatures. Minimum RH values will remain generally above 30-40% through the period. South to southeast winds are expected to strengthen across South Texas Friday, but based on the forecasted above normal moisture and low ERC values, elevated fire weather is not expected at this time. The chance of thunderstorms with measurable rainfall increases over the weekend as a cold front moves across South Texas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 84 72 85 72 / 10 0 0 0 Victoria 85 69 87 69 / 10 0 0 0 Laredo 91 72 95 72 / 0 10 0 0 Alice 87 70 90 70 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 83 73 83 73 / 20 0 0 0 Cotulla 89 70 94 70 / 10 10 0 0 Kingsville 86 70 88 70 / 10 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 80 73 80 73 / 10 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...PH/83 AVIATION...JCP/84  035 FXUS63 KSGF 150615 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 115 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Storms are expected to move into the area late this evening into the overnight hours from Oklahoma. There will be the potential for some severe storms mainly along and south of I-44 and along and west of Highway 65. - Additional severe weather potential Wednesday afternoon and evening, and again Friday afternoon and overnight into Saturday. - Marginal excessive rainfall concerns through the week in areas that see repeated strong storms and/or training precipitation. && .MESOSCALE... Issued at 742 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 An upper level trough is currently moving east across the Rocky Mountains region this evening. An area of surface low pressure is located across western Kansas with a dry line extending from central Kansas to the southwest into western Texas early this evening. Thunderstorms have developed along the dry line across central Oklahoma into Texas this afternoon and evening. Further north across Kansas, the cap never weakened enough for storm development especially with the better lift to the west with the upper level trough so storms have not developed across Kansas. A few showers have developed but storms have just not been able to develop further north. Confidence is now low that northern storms will develop as the cap will continue to strengthen this evening across east central Kansas into west central Missouri. Therefore attention turns to the activity to the southwest in Oklahoma. Coverage in storms is increasing across Oklahoma and a cluster of storms is expected to develop on move northeast this evening into tonight. The upper level trough will move east tonight and an area of MLCAPE of 750 to around 1000 J/kg with a weak cap will be in place ahead of the storms to the northeast into extreme southeastern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri late this evening into the early overnight hours generally south of I-44 and west of Highway 65. Instability will remain weakly capped to the east into south central Missouri into Wednesday morning but the instability will decrease to 500 J/kg or less to the east as the cluster of storms moves out well ahead of the better upper level support to the west. Therefore, the cluster/line of storms across south central Oklahoma and north central Texas is expected to move east northeast basically along I-44 into the area late this evening, generally after 10pm into the overnight hours. Overall the storms should be weakening as they move into the area but a scattered damaging wind risk and an isolated quarter size hail risk will occur into the far southwestern portions of the area, again along and south of I-44 and west of Hwy 65. Low level shear will be increase some with a low level jet developing, but the line of storms may out run the better shear. Therefore, the tornado risk is low, but there could be a low chance for a brief tornado across the far southwestern portions of the area if mesovorts can develop, but the risk is decreasing for our area. As this complex moves east across the area overnight it will be more showers with some embedded thunder as it moves east across central Missouri. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 256 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 It's breezy out there today as the trough pushes into our area and the surface pressure gradient remains tight. Southwest winds have been observed at 20-25 mph with gusts 30-35 mph. Temperatures have climbed into the upper 70s to low 80s despite a good amount of cloud cover. There are a few hours of warming left, so we're still on track to reach the predicted highs in the 80s today. The low encroaching on western Missouri has an attendant dryline that extends south and west across western Oklahoma and down into Texas. Convective initiation is expected along this dryline in the next couple of hours. Headed into the evening, these initial supercells are expected to line up as they move east-northeast across Kansas and Oklahoma on their way to us. The northeastern-most end of the line will reach us first, and may feature some development out ahead in west-central Missouri as early as 5-6 p.m. The main line looks to reach our area closer to 7-8 p.m., moving generally west-to-east with a northeast component. These supercells will look very scary as they move through Oklahoma, where they will be riding a moisture/instability gradient and tapping into all the moisture and warmth that has streamed into the region with the last several days of southerly flow. However, as they move eastward into our area and out of the better instability, they will become less organized/discrete. They are still very much expected to be severe, just not as severe as what may be seen in central Oklahoma, so keep this in mind when monitoring upstream. The stronger/more discrete cells in the line will be capable of very large hail up to 2-3", damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph, and tornadoes (particularly in our Kansas counties). With the line as a whole/line segments, hail up to quarters and damaging winds will be possible. Again, storms decrease in severity as they move east due to the loss of daytime heating and storms quickly gobbling up the favorable environment. The area with the highest risk for these hazards (SPC Slight risk, level 2/5) is roughly the northwestern half of the CWA, or a Cassville-Springfield- Lebanon-Vichy line. The severe risk will come to an end in the early morning hours, but there will be little break in the rainfall as a cold front impinging on the dryline from the west continues to force precipitation in eastern Oklahoma that tracks northeast into SWMO. Wednesday will be rainy and dreary the majority of the day. The dryline/cold front situation makes a final push Wednesday night, and should have just enough oomph from 1000-3000 J/Kg of MLCAPE, 30-50 kts of shear, steep lapse rates, moisture, and all a severe storm's favorite things to bring another round of severe convection in the afternoon and evening. All severe hazards will be possible with this activity as well, and the risk will end after midnight. With the multiple rounds of rain, one might wonder about the flash flood risk. While there is a marginal risk for excessive rainfall Tuesday and Wednesday, given that the expected storm total QPF forecast over the course of two days still remains lower than 1-hr flash flood guidance, it would take hours worth of training and/or strong cells to create a flash flood hazard. This risk is considered secondary to the hail/wind/tornado risk both days. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 256 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The cold front lifts to the north rather than moving through Wednesday night, keeping us in the southerly flow regime for the time being. Rain will gradually end from west to east Thursday morning, and we'll enjoy some sunshine in the afternoon with highs in the low 80s. The winds settle down as well, with no disturbances nearby for the first time in several days. Friday, a deep trough finally pushes a cold front through the area. This looks like a very classic severe setup, and we are included in an Enhanced equivalent (level 3/5) outlook from the SPC. Based on the expected environmental conditions, supercells capable of large hail and tornadoes are expected for our area, which grow upscale into a squall line as they progress toward the Mississippi valley. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1254 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A mesoscale convective system is moving from northeast Oklahoma into southern Missouri, with deeper convective towers sandwiched on either side by a stratiform rainfall region. Lightning does extend ahead and behind of the strongest convective towers into the leading and trailing stratiform rainfall regions, with positive bolts recorded by ground lightning station observations suggesting lightning potential extends 20-30 miles east of the leading edge of the convective line. Impacts at the site begin with light rain. As the deeper towers arrive, southerly winds gust 30-40kts, lightning concentration increases, and precip transitions to a heavy downpour, which lends itself to vis reductions to 1-2 miles. After the brief downpour, rainfall becomes light again and conditions return to VFR. By 09-10Z, rainfall is expected to end at TAF sites. Additional scattered showers and storms may pass over the area at times through the early morning hours and again this afternoon, with the best chance for widespread rainfall and thunderstorms returning after 16Z. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Record High Temperatures: April 14: KVIH: 87/2006 KUNO: 86/2024 April 15: KUNO: 84/9999 April 17: KSGF: 87/1937 KVIH: 86/2004 KUNO: 87/2006 Record High Minimum Temperatures: April 14: KSGF: 67/2006 April 15: KSGF: 63/2006 April 16: KSGF: 66/1963 April 17: KSGF: 66/1976 && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ MESOSCALE...Wise SHORT TERM...Nelson LONG TERM...Nelson AVIATION...Camden CLIMATE...Camden  616 FXUS61 KRNK 150623 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 223 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation Update. A Special Weather Statement was issued for parts of VA and NC for increased fire danger today (Wednesday). && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Well above normal temperatures through the end of the week, with some records possible. Colder temperatures behind frontal passage on Sunday. 2. A cold front brings a few chances for rain and ushers in cooler air by the end of the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Well above normal temperatures through the end of the week, with some records possible. Colder temperatures behind frontal passage on Sunday. A strong 500mb ridge centered over the Gulf will maintain its hold on much of the eastern US through the end of the work week. Broad south to southwesterly flow into the region at the surface and aloft will continue to advect warmer air into the area, and therefore, will see well above normal temperatures continuing through the end of the week and into the beginning of the weekend. NBM probabilities for high temperatures exceeding 85 degrees F are nearly 100% for the Piedmont and Roanoke and Southern Shenandoah Valleys Wednesday (today), Thursday and Saturday. Probabilities for highs 90 degrees F or higher are over 80% for parts of Southside and central VA. Both high and low temperatures will be between 15 to 20 degrees above seasonal averages. A shortwave will pass over the area Thursday into Friday, increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms mainly for the mountains. Timing of the shortwave passage looks unfavorable for more widespread coverage of storms, since current model guidance shows the wave moving into the area late Thursday, after the peak of daytime heating and instability. Coverage looks much less east of the mountains, so the Piedmont will miss out on any meaningful rainfall. Slightly cooler temperatures, though still above normal, are in the forecast for Friday, following the passage of the shortwave, but temperatures quickly rebound into the mid to upper 80s, into the 90s in the east for Saturday, in the warm sector ahead of a stronger cold front. Greater relief from the heat looks to come after the frontal passage, with highs falling in the mid 50s to mid 60s by Monday. The mountains, especially in southeast WV, will see low temperatures in the 30s once again. Probabilities for temperatures 32 degrees F or less between 35% to 45% for the southeast WV mountains Monday and Tuesday mornings. By early next week, the growing season for mountain zones will be open, so there could be a need for frost/freeze headlines to be issued. See climate and fire weather sections below for details on records and fire danger. KEY MESSAGE 2: A cold front brings a few chances for rain and ushers in cooler air by the end of the weekend. Upper level ridging moves away Saturday as a deep trough over the Northern Plains shifts into the OH Valley. A cold front and the mean trough push through late Sunday into Monday, with showers and storms starting as early as Saturday afternoon in the mountains ahead of the system before expanding east. The stronger lift will be located to our north, but we should see widespread chances for showers with a few embedded storms possible as the anafront pushes through. Unfortunately, plenty of antecedent dry air in the low and mid levels of the atmosphere will likely keep much rain from reaching the ground. The lack of moisture and the late night timing of the front will preclude any severe weather concerns. GEFS ensembles only give about a 30 percent chance of getting more than a tenth of an inch for SW WV and the western mountains of SW VA and NW NC for this event. Farther east, members show the precipitation breaking up over the Blue Ridge, with just a few hundredths of rain falling. This will do very little to improve the drought situation. We could see a few light upslope snow and rain showers over the Greenbrier Valley Sunday night behind the system. Dense high pressure builds in behind the front for early to mid week next. The warmer weather will give way to cooler weather Sunday and Monday, with some improvement by Wednesday. Overnight lows will once again freezing Sunday and Monday night. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions look to prevail through the TAF period, with west/southwest winds at around 5-10 knots expected through the TAF period. Gusts through the 18-00 UTC timeframe today look will be around 12-18 knots. Overall, no major concerns at terminals through the period as VFR flight conditions prevail. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Mainly dry with VFR conditions into Saturday. There is a front/upper disturbance arriving Thu night- Friday that may bring showers and sub-VFR to the mountains before improving. The pattern changes over the weekend with a stronger front moving through with a better chance of showers and potential for sub- VFR cigs/vbsy, especially for the mountains. Light W/SW winds turn briefly WNW Friday afternoon and evening with gusts as high as 20 kts. WInds diminish overnight, then become SW and gusty again for Saturday. NW Winds behind the second system will be gusty Sunday to 30 knots for the mountains. Cooler weather and VFR conditions follow for early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Unusually warm and dry conditions will take place with record heat possible through Thursday. Some rainfall is possible Thursday into Friday, but probabilities appear low and confined to the mountains, which will only prolong the ongoing drought. Relative humidities will fall towards 20 to 30 percent for the next few afternoons, especially east of the Blue Ridge. Some southern-facing slopes may have relative humidities drop below 20 percent with afternoon sunshine and gusty winds, due to an unstable atmosphere from the increasing heat. These aforementioned conditions will escalate the danger of adverse fire behavior across the entire region. The anomalous heat and low humidity combined with daytime gusts will only make fire containment increasingly difficult throughout the rest of this week. The next notable chance for any widespread wetting rainfall may not come until Sunday when a cold front arrives to bring some relief. && .CLIMATE... The following record high maximums and record high minimums, or warmest lows, are in jeopardy due to the abnormal warmth over the next couple of days: Wednesday: Station Hi Max T Hi Min T Roanoke 89 in 1936 67 in 2024 Lynchburg 89 in 1941 65 in 1896 Danville 91 in 2006 68 in 1922 Bluefield 89 in 1922 60 in 2006 Blacksburg 83 in 1941 57 in 1954 Thursday: Station Hi Max T Hi Min T Roanoke 90 in 2002 61 in 2017 Lynchburg 91 in 2002 65 in 1912 Danville 92 in 2002 64 in 1916 Bluefield 81 in 2012 66 in 2006 Blacksburg 82 in 1941 61 in 1941 && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AS/SH AVIATION...EB/SH FIRE WEATHER...AS/WP CLIMATE...PW/SH  014 FXUS63 KDVN 150627 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 127 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...Updated for 06z Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread showers and storms are expected Wednesday, with multiple rounds possible. Severe weather will be possible again, especially in the afternoon and evening. SPC highlighted the whole area in a Slight Risk (level 2/5) for severe weather. - A stronger surface low and cold front will work through the region on Friday, bringing along another potential bout of severe weather. SPC currently has much of our area in an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) for severe weather. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 An active forecast lies ahead, with current SPC outlooks highlighting areas along/north of Interstate 80 in an Enhanced (level 3/5) Risk for severe weather, with a Slight Risk (level 2/5) south. Features that we are watching as potential points for convective initiation will be subtle outflow boundaries over the area, resulting from overnight convection. Also, we will have a stationary boundary draped over/near our northern counties along Highway 20. This stationary boundary will be the area of most concern, as it will provide the necessary surface forcing for convective initiation. Further, we will see the LLJ increase in magnitude later this afternoon and through the evening, converging near that boundary. Thus, there will be plenty of forcing in our north for thunderstorm potential. We are looking at the potential for discrete supercell storms, where coverage may increase in the evening hours owing to the strengthening LLJ. Below, we will dive into timing and environmental details. The main forecast challenge lies with the location and timing of convection, owing to the cap in place over the area. Best chances to see storms this afternoon/evening will be along and north of the Highway 20 corridor, where we will see the best forcing to overcome the cap. Although, our whole outlook is highlighted for severe weather for a reason. Even though areas south of the Highway 20 corridor are capped, there are ways in which we can break through that cap. Looking at 12z CAMs, the cap does seem to be a little weaker than initially forecast, where some CAMs are starting to hint at late afternoon storms developing farther south than the Highway 20 corridor. Further, the latest runs of the HRRR and other high-res CAMs are starting to indicate more coverage of potential supercells, especially closer to the I-80 corridor. This is generally showing the possibility of a broken line of supercells moving west to east from mid-afternoon and through the evening. Thus, mesoscale analysis through the afternoon will be crucial, closely monitoring the extent of surface heating, moisture, along with any sources of mesoscale lift. As was mentioned, an outflow boundary from the morning convection can be in play. This has generally set up along the Interstate 80 corridor this morning, which may be a potential source of forcing necessary. This feature has become more diffuse, but still may serve as a point for initiation, especially with a strengthening LLJ. Timing wise, we are generally looking at the potential for storms to develop as early as 3PM and the severe threat lasting until around 10PM. Storms are expected to move west- east through the evening. Now, let's dive into the environment that we have in place. As was mentioned, initiation will largely be conditional on surface forcing, with best forcing in our north along the stationary front. Along and south of that boundary, the open warm sector is primed for severe convection, with the cap being the limiting factor. We will see deep layer shear around 45-55 KTs. This will couple with instability around 2500-3500+ CAPE, favorable for organized strong/severe convection. The environment is favoring supercell thunderstorms as the main convective mode. The decreased upper level support should help keep these more discrete at least through the afternoon, with a strengthening LLJ late in the afternoon increasing coverage. This CAPE profile is also quite large in the hail growth layer, with midlevel lapse rates of 7.5-8.5 C/km favoring large hail potential, with some very large hail possible. This increased hail potential has been noted by the SPC. Otherwise, while the deep layer shear is moderate-high, much of this will be seen in the lowest 3km, where the best curvature in model hodographs are seen. Thus, strong LLVL shear will also be favorable for tornadoes as well, some of which could be stronger and longer lived. In the end, all hazards are in play, with hail and tornadoes being the primary threat. A quick look at our 18z sounding would indicate higher instability is in place, with CAPE around 4000+, along with shear nearing 50 KTs. Thus, a supercell environment is in place. Along with that, our lapse rates are around 9.5 just above the cap, which is more than favorable for severe hail, some of which may be significantly severe. Now, as was forecast, a cap does remain in place. Although, it is not a strong cap, with CIN sitting around -50. Any further heating and mesoscale forcing should be able to overcome this cap. This has been hinted in latest runs in CAMs, showing an increased coverage of storms later this afternoon and evening. Tonight, we will continue to see the potential for showers/storms as the LLJ remains overhead and better forcing aloft moves in. Cloud cover will remain through the night, moderating temperatures in the 60s. While the overall severe threat will be lower overnight, some guidance hints at some wind/hail potential, but confidence is low. Tomorrow, we will see another chance for severe weather, with a Slight Risk (level 2/5) for the whole area. A similar environment will be in place tomorrow, but a little less on the instability owing to more cloud cover. Although, it will remain sufficient for convection. The main difference tomorrow will be the surface low and associated cold front passing through. Thus, plenty of surface forcing and better upper level support moving in. With such forcing in play, we are expecting more coverage of storms, especially in the afternoon and evening hours. Storm mode looks to be mixed, with initial supercells eventually growing upscale into line segments, with the main line of convection coming with the cold front that evening/night. Overall, with such forcing, the radar presentation tomorrow may look quite messy through the day. Showers/Storms may be possible through the day, but the better severe threat seems to be the afternoon and evening. All hazards will be in play, but hail and wind seem to be the primary threats at this time. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Upper wave that brought impacts to the area on Wednesday will have since pushed east of the area on Thursday, with weak upper ridging moving in. With this, we will see a surface high pass through the area, resulting in a quiet weather day. We should be geared to have quite a pleasant day, with temperatures increasing into the 70s, a westerly breeze, and decreasing cloud cover. This break of quiet weather will be short-lived though, as Thursday night into Friday, strong southwesterly flow sets up ahead of the next shortwave trough. Strong vort max will approach the area Friday afternoon and evening, with a surface low dragging a seasonally strong cold front through the area. Thus, plenty of forcing in play for storms. A brief look at the environment would indicate sufficient shear and instability in place ahead of the front, favorable for organized convection, some of which could be strong to severe. Environment would be favorable for supercell thunderstorms being the initial storm mode, which may be discrete. Although, as the day goes on and the strongest part of the LLJ core moves in ahead of the cold front, upscale growth is likely. This would lead to a QLCS event for the late afternoon and evening on Friday, where all hazards will be possible. Will refrain from further details, as much can change between now and then. SPC also has their eyes on this system, highlighting much of our area in a 15% or 30% risk for severe weather, which equates to a Slight/Enhanced Risk (level 2/3 of 5) for severe weather. A look ahead to the upcoming weekend shows a drier pattern developing for Saturday and Sunday as upper-level ridging develops to the west. A cold front should bring notably cooler and more seasonal temperatures to the area on the heels of strong, gusty northwest winds. This could bring our first bout of frost/freeze conditions during this growing season, possibly Saturday night, though winds may stay up to limit this to just a freeze potential for parts of the area, while Sunday night could bring about more widespread freeze and frost with lighter winds as high pressure builds in. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 110 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Predominantly VFR with MVFR/IFR bouts in storms through the period. A line of storms south of KCID and KDBQ will likely impact KMLI and KBRL over the next several hours (through 10z) with MVFR to IFR conditions (mainly visibility). This may be preceded by gusty NW winds to 30+ kt with additional gusts possible with the storms. Elsewhere, mainly showers will linger at times near KDBQ and KCID prior to daybreak. Timing of the precipitation beyond the next 6 hours remains quite challenging. Overall it looks like there will be a decrease in precipitation coverage between 12z-18z, then an uptick is anticipated after 20z through Wednesday evening as a surface low and cold front move through. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gunkel LONG TERM...Gunkel/McClure AVIATION...McClure  161 FXUS61 KPBZ 150627 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 227 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The Slight and Marginal severe risk areas were pulled slightly north as compared to the previous forecast. Also, the Marginal Risk for Thursday has been expanded to encompass most of the forecast area. Potential storm placement and timing for today was refined slightly, focusing on areas north of I-70 after 21Z or so. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) of severe storms today north of I-70. Damaging wind is the main threat, although large hail and a tornado or two are possible. 2) Thursday features a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe storms, with isolated damaging wind possible. After a break Friday, a stronger front could bring more severe weather Saturday. 3) Anomalously warm temperatures this week. Daily record high max and minimum temperatures will be challenged and possibly broken, especially today. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A remnant MCV is progressing eastward across southwest PA during the overnight period. Earlier small hail-producing cells to the north of the MCV have moved east and dissipated, leaving a temporary lull in precipitation. Towards sunrise, what should be the weakening remnants of the Michigan QLCS will approach areas north of I-80. CAMs agree on this fading trend as the low- level environment should generally be hostile to convection at that time due to relatively meager MLCAPE and increasing MLCIN. Impact should be limited to brief heavy rain and perhaps modestly gusty wind. The environment will improve markedly during the daylight hours as southwest flow brings improved moisture flow into the region. The axis of highest moisture, featuring precipitable water values of 1.25 to 1.5 inches, will lie north of I-70. This is where the bulk of the storm activity and severe potential is forecast to occur this afternoon and evening, tracking E or ENE. Accordingly, along with some measure of surface heating, this should allow surface-based CAPE to easily reach the 1000-1500 J/kg range according to HREF means, with potential to reach 2000 J/kg in the event of stronger heating. Deep shear will be improved as compared to yesterday, reaching the 35-40 knot range for 0-6km values. Storm initiation likely occurs to our west, perhaps aided by a weak mid-level wave, with activity potentially spreading in from the west after 21Z or so. Storm mode could be mixed, with short line segments/bows, and potentially supercellular structures, especially if discrete storms can form earlier over our region along remnant boundaries. The main threat remains damaging wind gusts over most of the region. Better potential for large hail and perhaps a tornado or two lies generally north of Pittsburgh, where low- level SRH is maximized, LCLs are a bit lower, and CAPE in the hail growth zone is more abundant. The new SPC day 1 outlook is in good agreement with the above, leaving a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) in place north of I-70. Also remember: the threat of flash flooding cannot be ignored, as isolated issues could occur in locations that are impacted by multiple storms. While the severe threat should largely subside by midnight due to diurnal stabilization, upstream convection could once again impact the region overnight into Thursday morning, at least in a weakening state. Such convection is tricky to time and depends at least partially on leftover boundaries from earlier activity. KEY MESSAGE 2... Thunderstorm potential continues on Thursday, as Great Lakes low pressure drags a weak frontal boundary or surface trough across the region. Although deep shear will be similar to Wednesday, more widespread cloud cover may hinder the buildup of instability. Less- favorable low-level hodographs and poor mid-level lapse rates point to lower tornado and hail potential, leaving isolated damaging wind as the most likely impact from the stronger storms. The SPC day 2 Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) area was expanded to cover most of the forecast area north and west of Morgantown. A crossing shortwave accompanying the surface low, dipping into the Tennessee Valley, may finally dislodge the southeast CONUS ridge Thursday night while bringing overnight showers and storms to our region. Friday and Friday night may feature a dry break as a smaller- scale 500mb ridge crosses. Then, one last round of strong to potentially severe storms will arrive with a stronger cold front Saturday afternoon/evening, followed by decreasing precipitation and more seasonable temperatures for Sunday. KEY MESSAGE 3... A anomalously strong (500mb heights at the 99th percentile) and stubborn ridge remains centered over Florida and extending across the southeast CONUS into Thursday, before being weakened some by upstream shortwave activity. It still appears that today will feature the best chances of record-breaking temperatures. Warm and moist southwest flow today will push 850mb temperatures into the 14 to 16C range, which will allow temperatures to rise into the mid 80s assuming decent sunshine/mixing. Such temperatures are most likely south of Pittsburgh away from the ridges, while areas to the north feature more cloud cover and better precipitation chances. This is reflected in NBM temperature record probabilities for today. Sites PHD (shorter climate record), HLG, and MGW all have 85% or greater probability of reaching record highs today according to statistical guidance. Probabilities for ZZV and PIT are lower given a bit better cloud/rain potential and longer climate histories. There are also decent probabilities both today and Thursday for record warm minimum temperatures, with PIT, PHD, and HLG featuring 70% or greater chance of setting such standards both days. Thursday remains warm, with 60% or greater probability of temperatures of 80 or higher south of I-80, but a bit more areawide cloud cover and shower activity may hinder the potential of record highs (probabilities drop below 30% areawide). The next best shot for these may be Saturday, with perhaps some sun and southwest flow ahead of an approaching front. The warmth definitively ends by Sunday behind this boundary. Minor heat risk continues areawide today and Thursday before retracting some on Friday. Heat impacts will primarily be felt by those who are extremely sensitive to heat and those without cooling/hydration. Speckled moderate risk areas are indicated today and Thursday especially, mainly in the Ohio and Mon river valleys. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR prevails to begin the TAF period and much of the forecast is expected to be VFR as well. This will possibly be broken by several chances for showers and storms. The first of which largely occurs between 10-14z when the ongoing line of storms in Michigan is expected to encroach upon the region. By the time it gets here, it will likely be a broken line of dying showers and may fracture further before even making it to BVI or anywhere further south. These showers could bring MVFR restrictions in VIS to affected ports and lowering chances for MVFR CIGs at FKL and DUJ which have seen CIG forecasts improve this cycle. These showers have been included as TEMPOs for FKL/DUJ, PROB30s as far south as HLG/AGC/LBE and are not mentioned further south. After these early showers decay, widespread VFR and dry weather returns until the afternoon, when storms begin to spark again. The outlook for tomorrow afternoon remains similar to yesterday, with a wide range of timing and coverage solutions at play. Currently storms are favored largely north of I-70 this afternoon and evening, possibly beginning again by early afternoon closer to I-80 first. Most model solutions then bring additional lines of storms across the region (highest chances again north of I-70) after sunset. Storm coverage may be more limited in the afternoon before becoming more widespread in the evening, but both timeframes look to support hail and damaging wind gust threats. Both of these possible storm timings have been included as PROB30 groups for affected ports trying to forecast the best time. This remains rather difficult though, with storm timing and location being largely dependent on the existence and placement of boundaries tomorrow morning from ongoing convection tonight. MGW may find it self far enough south to miss out on all of this activity and could be VFR and dry through the entire TAF period. ZZV could also luck out but has a higher chance than MGW to see storms tomorrow evening. Again, large portions of the forecast period will be VFR but instances of restrictions in showers and storms are possible mainly north near sunrise and tomorrow afternoon and then a little more widespread by evening time. Outlook... The Upper Ohio River Valley will remain positioned near the upper ridge axis throughout the week and make it liable for multiple shortwave crossing to foster periodic showers/thunderstorms and precip-driven restrictions. A pattern shift is unlikely to occur until late Sunday into Monday before confidence becomes high again on a prolonged period of dry, VFR weather. && .CLIMATE... See below for record max highs and max lows this week: Today, April 15th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 85F (1883) 61F (1967) Wheeling, WV: 82F (2010) 59F (2002) Morgantown, WV: 86F (1993) 65F (1967) New Philadelphia, OH: 82F (2010) 58F (2023) Zanesville, OH: 85F (1941) 61F (1972) DuBois, PA: 79F (2003) 56F (2002) Thursday, April 16th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 86F (2002) 63F (2017) Wheeling, WV: 86F (1945) 64F (2002) Morgantown, WV: 88F (2002) 64F (2012) New Philadelphia, OH: 85F (2002) 62F (2017) Zanesville, OH: 86F (2002) 65F (1912) DuBois, PA: 82F (2012) 59F (1976) Friday, April 17th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 87F (1896) 63F (1896) Wheeling, WV: 84F (2002) 64F (2002) Morgantown, WV: 89F (1976) 64F (1960) New Philadelphia, OH: 84F (2002) 60F (1982) Zanesville, OH: 88F (1896) 66F (1896) DuBois, PA: 83F (2002) 60F (2002) Saturday, April 18th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 90F (1896) 64F (1896) Wheeling, WV: 85F (2025) 63F (2002) Morgantown, WV: 92F (1976) 64F (2013) New Philadelphia, OH: 86F (1976) 57F (2019) Zanesville, OH: 92F (1896) 66F (1896) DuBois, PA: 87F (1976) 61F (2002) && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CL AVIATION...Cermak/AK  961 FXUS61 KGYX 150629 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 229 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Anticipating the remainder of the overnight period to be mostly dry as just a few lingering showers remain in the area. Otherwise, little has changed regarding the next couple days as the pattern remains warm and showery/stormy. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Today will be another warm day with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms expected. 2. Warm temperatures and chances for thunderstorms continue into Thursday. This looks like it could be another day where thunderstorms could be strong or even severe. 3. Wet weather continues off and on through the weekend, then colder and windy for Monday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A quasi-stationary frontal boundary remains draped over the area today with waves of low pressure continuing to track along it. This should keep clouds pretty locked into the area during the day and therefore it won't get quite as warm as we saw on Tuesday, but it will be warm nonetheless with temperatures climbing into the 60s across much of the area and into the 70s in southern New Hampshire. Expecting a seabreeze to keep temperatures at the coast cooler, probably in the 50s. Due to increased cloud cover convective potential is going to be much less. Latest CAMs suggest maybe a couple hundred joules of MUCAPE are able to develop which is just enough for some run of the mill thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening, but not enough to see anything very strong or severe. Again this looks most likely in southern New Hampshire and maybe southwestern Maine. We will see a sharp temperature drop across much of the area Wednesday night as cooler marine air advects onshore. Temperatures in Maine and coastal New Hampshire drop into the 40s, and the remainder of New Hampshire stays in the 50s with the Connecticut River Valley holding onto the warmest temperatures. This is also likely going to bring some fog to the coastal plain and maybe just inland as well. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... The pattern is rinse and repeat for Thursday as waves of low pressure continue to track along a quai-staionary boundary. There are a few differences though compared to Wednesday. The first being better forcing ahead of a sharp 500 mb trough is going to help remnant convection from the Great Lakes Region sustain into the Northeast, rolling over the ridge and ending up as widespread rain showers in our area (with one round possibly clipping southern New Hampshire in the early morning hours). The second difference is going to be that the ridging aloft may allow for enough clearing, mainly in southern New Hampshire, to once again develop some strong or even severe thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening hours. We are at the tail end of the CAMs window here, but they are already suggesting a wide swath of 1000 to 1500 J/kg of MUCAPE across southern New Hampshire with ample deep layer shear. Some things to consider will be be potentially lacking low and mid-level lapse rates and the possibility of abundant cloud debris keeping convection suppressed (something we saw occur more than once last year). KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... Scattered to numerous showers with some rumbles of thunder should continue through Thursday night and into Friday as low pressure continues to form along boundary to our south. During this time cool temperatures are expected, with the warmest highs (relatively speaking) occur across southern NH. Onshore flow continues on Saturday but it should be drier as we'll have a break in forcing for ascent. However, clouds and some drizzle may occur. A strong cold front approaches early Sunday and crosses during the day. Thereafter, relatively cold and windy NW flow takes over for Sunday night and Monday. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 06Z Thursday...Some IFR in low ceilings and patchy fog continues at the start of the TAF period. Gradual improvement to VFR will occur today with a return to MVFR by the afternoon with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms making a return. Tonight will likely see fog and low ceilings return to coastal terminals and maybe some inland terminals as well due to the recent rain and moist onshore flow. Outlook... Thursday: MVFR in showers, with thunderstorms possible as well. Thursday night-Friday: MVFR due to showers. IFR possible as well, especially along the coast. Saturday: VFR expected although we will have to watch for coastal stratus. Sunday-Monday: MVFR due to showers and possible thunderstorms through Sunday night. VFR Monday with gusty NW SFC winds. && .MARINE... Mostly tranquil conditions are expected on the waters through the day Thursday. Winds will start today and Thursday light and variable with a sea breeze developing in the afternoon. Wave heights during this time period are expected to be 3ft of less. The only fly in the ointment will be the potential for afternoon thunderstorms. SCA conditions will be likely Sunday afternoon through Monday with strong cold frontal passage. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Baron/Ekster  940 FXUS64 KJAN 150630 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 130 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Limited threat for dense fog development Wednesday morning, particularly across south and east Mississippi. - Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly north of Interstate 20 Thursday afternoon. - Chances for more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity exists areawide Saturday afternoon and night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 116 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Tonight through next Monday...Strong high pressure aloft will continue to meander over the central and eastern Gulf of America through the end of the week. This, while high pressure at the surface centered off the coast of the Carolinas, remains wedged into the region from the east. The combination of the two will continue to promote overall quiet conditions and above normal warmth across the forecast area through the remainder of this week and into the start of the upcoming weekend. With increased moisture, mild conditions, and light to calm winds overnight into early Wednesday morning, fog is again possible across mainly south and east Mississippi. A "limited" threat of dense fog is possible here again as well, with visibilities reduced to a half mile or less at times. Any fog that develops will begin eroding after sunrise. Otherwise, look for a quiet night with some low stratus again developing across portions of the area, as lows range from the upper 50s to middle 60s. There will be a slight increase in rain chances across northern portions of the forecast area on Thursday. While the remainder of the CWA will remain dry, a shortwave lifting northeast across the Mid-South region could spark some isolated showers and storms across mainly the Highway 82 corridor during peak heating hours Thursday afternoon. Any convection that develops during this time, will quickly dissipate in the early evening as day time heating wanes. A better chance for showers and isolated storms currently exists across the entire forecast area Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. This is as a result of a stronger shortwave that's advertised to push a cold front east into and through the region late Saturday afternoon into early Sunday. While any rain chances are certainly welcomed, unfortunately this front will be in the process of weakening as forcing lifts out to the northeast. This looks to keep the better rain chances during this timeframe across western and northern portions of the forecast area. Therefore, the upcoming weekend is by no means looking to be a washout. In the wake of the front Sunday into Monday, some relief from the above normal warmth and humid conditions is expected. Highs both days currently look to struggle to climb out of the 70s. While lows both Sunday and Monday night will be cool as they generally fall into the upper 40s and low to middle 50s. /19/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 129 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through most of tonight. Another round of low stratus/fog potential will advect in from the south toward daybreak, and primarily impact southern/eastern sites with LIFR/IFR categories during the early to mid morning hours Wednesday. Expect a quick improvement to VFR category at all sites by late morning continuing through the remainder of the day and into the evening. Southerly surface wind will diminish this evening, then pick up during the day and become gusty. /EC/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 84 63 86 64 / 0 0 10 0 Meridian 85 60 86 61 / 0 0 10 0 Vicksburg 86 63 87 65 / 0 0 10 0 Hattiesburg 85 62 87 62 / 0 0 10 0 Natchez 85 64 87 64 / 0 0 10 0 Greenville 86 67 86 66 / 0 10 30 10 Greenwood 86 66 85 66 / 0 0 20 10 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ 19/SW/EC  328 FXUS61 KCLE 150632 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 232 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The previous forecast largely remains on track with multiple rounds of thunderstorms (some severe) and heavy rain expected through Thursday and again on Saturday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Multiple rounds of severe weather are possible through Thursday with another round of convection possible Saturday as the active pattern continues. All severe weather hazards are possible. 2) Repeated rounds of moderate to heavy rain are likely through early Thursday. A Flood Watch remains in effect for Northwest Ohio, where confidence in flooding is highest. 3) Above normal temperatures will continue through Saturday before cooler temperatures return Sunday into early next week. Frost/freeze headlines may be needed for Ohio counties Sunday night and Monday night. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Multiple rounds of convection are expected through Wednesday as a frontal boundary wavers to the north of the local area. Additional storms are likely as an upper trough axis moves across the area late Thursday with another round of storms likely as a stronger cold front approaches from the west on Saturday. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible with each round of convection. See the following breakdown below for more details: Today: The first round of convection is currently moving into the local area. The warm, moist flow and LLJ could support convective maintenance on the southern flank of the line for at least the next few hours, although the shear environment is less optimal across the local area. All convective hazards will be on the table but damaging wind gusts will definitely be the primary concern with a few tornadic spin-ups possible on the leading edge of the line. CAMs suggest that storms will weaken as they move across the area, which would likely result in boundaries left behind that will serve as a focus for convective initiation/enhancement later today. Similar to Tuesday, multiple rounds of scattered thunderstorms are possible throughout the day today with stronger convection possible later this afternoon into this evening. The deep, moist flow will allow for efficient destabilization this afternoon with MLCAPE values of 1500-2500 J/kg and deep shear values of 40+ knots anticipated. This would support organized convection and potential for another round of strong to severe storms with all hazards (especially damaging winds) possible. That said, given the reliance on mesoscale features for forcing, confidence in the exact timing and placement of storms is medium at best. There is a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) of severe weather across the entire area today. Thursday: Upper level support will be a bit better on Thursday the frontal boundary finally pushes southeast as a weak cold front. Scattered showers/storms remain possible in the warm air advection regime Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon with more organized convection likely with the front later Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. Damaging wind gusts will be the main threat, but hail and a few tornadoes can't be ruled out considering the wind field. There is a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) across the entire local area. Saturday: A brief respite in showers and thunderstorm chances is anticipated on Friday, however yet another round of storms (possibly strong to severe) will return as the next cold front, which will be stronger than Thursday's, approaches. Given moist return flow ahead of the front, all severe hazards are possible. KEY MESSAGE 2... Regardless of the severity of storms, very heavy rainfall with rates of at least 1-2 inches is likely with any thunderstorms given PWAT values of 1.25-2 inches in place across the area. There's some potential for training with the line of stronger storms moving into the area this morning and localized flooding will be possible for the first several hours of the forecast period. At the very least, this early morning convection will serve as yet another primer for additional heavy rainfall in thunderstorms later today into tonight. There are still concerns for backbuilding and/or training late today as storm motion becomes more parallel to the frontal boundary to the north. Widespread rainfall totals between this morning and Thursday will be between 1-2 inches (generally along and north of US Route 30), although locally higher amounts of at least 2-4 inches are possible, especially across Northwest Ohio where the Flood Watch is in effect. Flooding concerns are highest for the more responsive/flashy waterways and typical poor drainage/urban areas. Outside of Northwest Ohio, the location of the highest QPF values and the resulting highest flooding risk remain uncertain given relatively low confidence in the exact placement of thunderstorms. KEY MESSAGE 3... Persistent warm air advection will result in well above normal temperatures through Saturday. Instead of normal lower 60s for highs, highs will be in the 70s with lower 80s possible in areas that experience any clearing today. Cooler temperatures will likely materialize in the event of persistent cloud cover and precipitation. It will also be quite muggy thanks to dew points in the lower 60s. Temperatures will temporarily moderate to below normal values in the 50s Sunday and Monday, but guidance favors a warming trend by the middle of next week. The growing season has officially started for Ohio counties and frost/freeze headlines will likely be needed as temperatures tank into the lower 30s and possibly upper 20s on Sunday night. Additional headlines may be needed across Northeast Ohio on Monday night. && .AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/... A line of thunderstorms extends across southeast Michigan towards southern Lake Michigan at 0530Z and is moving generally east southeast. Thunderstorms are expected to be in the vicinity of Toledo and could produce strong to severe thunderstorm winds of 40-50 knots at the terminal with a wind shift to the northwest. We tried to time thunderstorms eastward across the area with the highest confidence in thunderstorms reaching the northern terminals and expecting the line to generally stall out before reaching CAK. Conditions are VFR ahead of the thunderstorms with MVFR or brief IFR visibilities expected in thunderstorms. If training of thunderstorms occurs, the lower conditions could linger for an hour or two. MVFR ceilings are possible for a few hours Wednesday morning as the rain tends to dissipate through 14Z. Several hours of heating on Wednesday will allow for thunderstorms to re-develop along the stalled out boundary. Expecting to see good coverage of thunderstorms on Wednesday afternoon between roughly 18Z in NW Ohio and 23Z in NE Ohio. Southwest winds will remain breezy for much of the period. Wind gusts have dropped off at a few locations and have included a brief window of low level wind sheer in the terminals with speeds of 45 knots at 2K feet. Thunderstorms will cause a wind shift to the northwest for several hours late tonight with southwest winds resuming on Wednesday morning. Outlook...Periods of non-VFR conditions are expected in showers and thunderstorms through Thursday. && .MARINE... A broken line of thunderstorms will cross Lake Erie early this morning and could be strong to severe. Thunderstorms will act to disrupt winds which could shift around to the northwest for a period of time. Winds will switch back around to the southwest on Wednesday at 10-20 knots with additional strong thunderstorms possible. Low pressure will track east across the Central Great Lakes on Thursday, with southwest winds veering to the northwest behind a cold front Thursday night. Southwest winds develop out of the southeast on Saturday and veer to southwesterly at 15-20 knots. Winds will be elevated at 20-25 knots behind the cold front Saturday night and a Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed heading into Sunday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for OHZ003-006>009-018- 019. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...15 AVIATION...10 MARINE...10  434 FXUS61 KCAR 150636 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 236 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... - Removed any mentioning of thunder for Thursday afternoon into Thursday night due to stable SE winds off the cold Gulf of Maine Waters. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Mild weather will continue for the rest of the week with additional rain events Thursday night into Friday and again Sunday into Sunday night. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Mild weather will continue for the rest of the week with additional rain events Thursday night into Friday and again Sunday into Sunday night. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Mild weather is expected to continue for the rest of the week with highs in the low to mid 50s today and Thursday and the mid to upper 50s Friday into the weekend well inland. Coastal communities will be a bit cooler and may have some marine fog on occasion. Small weather systems will bring additional rain with the next system coming Thursday night into Friday morning. This one will give from a quarter inch or less over the north to a half inch or more over the Central Highlands, Bangor Region to Interior Downeast sections of the state. The next rain system will come Sunday into Sunday night when a quarter to a half inch of rain may fall. Sunday night into Monday may feature a wintry mix across the north but significant uncertainty exists on ptypes due to wide range of solutions in boundary layer temperatures in the globals/ensembles. The combination of rainfall and the melting of the remaining snow cover over the far north will likely cause slow rises on the rivers to normal or slightly above normal flows for this time of year. Expecting northern rivers to increase 5-10kcfs above levels currently, on the Penobscot expecting an increase of 5-15kcfs and 1-3kcfs for all other main stem rivers. No river flooding is expected. Ice has flushed on all rivers except the Allagash and St. John Rivers. However, flushing is ongoing right now on those rivers with no significant problems. && .AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Today...MVFR to occasionally IFR conditions today. Winds east to SE around 5 kt. Tonight...IFR, possibly dropping to LIFR at times. SE winds less than 5 kt. Thursday...IFR to LIFR in the morning, then IFR during the afternoon with a few breaks to MVFR possible in the north. SE wind around 5 kt. Friday...AM IFR/LIFR due to RA/FG becoming MVFR during the day with VFR possible late day. N-NE winds around 5kt. Fri night expecting possible BR/FG and VCSH especially at southern terms. NE winds 5kt or less. Saturday...VFR. MVFR cigs possible especially at BGR and BHB. SE winds 5-15kt. Sunday...MVFR/IFR with RA likely. S winds 10-15kt gusting to 20kt shifting SW late day. && .MARINE... Winds will be light and seas around 2 to 3 ft today, tonight and Thursday. Some fog and mist is likely, especially late tonight into early Thursday morning. Winds/seas expected to remain below SCA conditions through Sunday. Late Sunday night into Monday is the next chance of SCA winds/seas. Rain/fog may reduce vsby Friday then again on Sunday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MB/JS AVIATION...MB/JS  240 FXUS62 KRAH 150636 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 236 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 235 AM Wednesday... * NCFS has requested Increased Fire Danger for all of central NC through at least Thursday, but statements (SPS) will only highlight the following day (Wed). && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 235 AM Wednesday... 1) Dry fuels combined with rather breezy and very warm conditions will promote fire weather concerns well into the weekend. 2) An early-season heat wave will result in near record high temperatures through Saturday. 3) A late-weekend pattern transition is expected with a cold frontal passage. Low-end rain chances are expected on Sunday, followed by much cooler temperatures early next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 245 AM Wednesday... KEY MESSAGE 1... Dry fuels combined with rather breezy and very warm conditions will promote fire weather concerns well into the weekend. Strong ridging over the SE will remain locked in place into the weekend before weakening. Therefore, exceptionally very dry and very warm conditions will continue for the next several days. Highs will top out in the upper 80s to lower 90s today and Thursday, with little change Friday and Saturday. SW winds will occasionally be breezy, moreso on Thursday with gusts to 25 mph possible. Expect Increased Fire Danger Statements to be issued daily until things change significantly. Key Message 2: An early-season heat wave is expected to bring near- record high temperatures through Saturday. A strong and persistent area of subtropical high pressure will remain over the Southeast U.S. through most of this period, with only a brief interruption from a weak, dry disturbance on Friday. At the surface, a Bermuda High will promote warm southwesterly winds into central North Carolina. Atmospheric thickness values (1000–850 mb) are forecast to be near the 95th percentile for this time of year, supporting unusually warm conditions. Daily high and low temperatures may approach or even break records. Expect afternoon highs mainly in the lower 90s and overnight lows in the lower to mid-60s—about 15 to 20 degrees above normal. Saturday is likely to be the hottest day, with some locations possibly reaching the mid-90s, which would be close to the warmest temperatures ever recorded in April. Humidity levels should remain relatively manageable, with dew points generally in the lower to mid-50s, and even dipping into the 40s at times, especially in western areas. As a result, heat index values will be slightly lower than the actual air temperatures by a few degrees. Even so, several consecutive days of lower-90s temperatures could pose a risk of heat stress, particularly for sensitive individuals and anyone spending extended time outdoors. Key Message 3: A shift in the weather pattern is expected late this weekend as a cold front moves through. This will bring a slight chance of rain on Sunday, followed by much cooler temperatures early next week. A broad upper-level trough will move eastward from the Plains into the eastern United States over the weekend. Its associated cold front is forecast to pass through central North Carolina on Sunday. This could bring a few showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm. However, current model guidance (including the GFS and ECMWF) suggests the front will move through relatively early in the day, limiting atmospheric instability. Forecast instability values remain low, with only a few hundred J/kg of CAPE expected. In addition, the strongest lift and deepest moisture are expected to stay north of the area, which should keep rainfall amounts light. Ensemble averages indicate totals of around a tenth of an inch or less, meaning little to no improvement in ongoing drought conditions. Behind the front, a noticeably cooler air mass will settle in for Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures are expected to fall below normal, with daytime highs mainly in the upper 60s to lower 70s and overnight lows dropping into the 40s (some 30s are possible Tuesday morning according to some of the latest guidance in the Piedmont). && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... As of 126 AM Wednesday... Sub-tropical high pressure extending across the South Atlantic states will favor a high probability of VFR conditions and SSW surface winds that will strengthen and become occasionally gusty with daytime heating again today (10-20kt). Outlook: Sub-tropical high pressure will favor warm, dry, and VFR conditions in cntl NC through Sat. Light, probably VFR rain will be possible along and behind a cold front that will move across cntl NC early Sunday. && .CLIMATE... All-Time Records for April KGSO: 95 on 4/28/1915 KRDU: 95 on 4/23/1980 and 4/28/1896 KFAY: 96 on 4/12/1930 Record High Temperatures: April 15: KGSO: 90/2006 KRDU: 92/1941 KFAY: 95/2006 April 16: KGSO: 88/2002 KRDU: 92/1941 KFAY: 94/2006 April 17: KGSO: 90/1967 KRDU: 93/1896 KFAY: 92/1941 April 18: KGSO: 90/1976 KRDU: 95/1896 KFAY: 93/1941 April 19: KFAY: 94/1941 Record High Minimum Temperatures: April 15: KGSO: 65/2006 KRDU: 64/1993 April 16: KGSO: 66/2006 KRDU: 64/1912 KFAY: 69/1934 April 17: KGSO: 63/2002 KRDU: 67/1896 KFAY: 66/1921 April 18: KGSO: 66/1909 KRDU: 63/1941 KFAY: 67/2002 April 19: KRDU: 67/1896 KFAY: 67/2002 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Badgett/NP AVIATION...Badgett/MWS CLIMATE...rah  922 FXUS62 KCAE 150637 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 237 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation discussion updated for 06z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1. Well above average temperatures, along with dry weather conditions, will continue into the weekend. - 2. Continued with a limited chance for rain on Sunday, but rainfall would be light and short-lived. - 3. Refreshingly cooler but very dry start to next week. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1: Well above average temperatures, along with dry weather conditions, will continue into the weekend. The daily warm and dry stretch continues with a strong upper ridge remaining in control through Saturday. Each day will pretty much be a rinse and repeat as temperatures climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s through the end of the week, and can not rule out approaching or breaking a daily record high each day. Hottest days should be Friday and Saturday, with guidance into the low to middle 90s for most areas. As we have seen with this pattern, guidance has trended slightly cooler with time, so while some daily records are in play, the April record of 96 in Columbia and Augusta appears unlikely. Key Message 2: Continued with a limited chance for rain on Sunday, but rainfall would be light and short-lived. Upper ridge breaks down by Sunday as a deeper upper trough digs into the eastern portions of the U.S. This will help to drive a cold front into and through the area Sunday. There should be a slight increase in moisture ahead of the front, but not enough to bring widespread needed rain with the strongest moisture convergence and synoptic level pulling well to our north. What may develop and move through is expected to be somewhat scattered and rather light from late morning through the afternoon. The best chance for seeing this still appears as if it will be over the central/northern Midlands Sunday afternoon, with the southern Midlands and the CSRA potentially remaining dry with this front. ECE and NAEFS members prog out less than 20% chance of over 0.1", which checks out well given the climatologically poor nature of this type of front for precip chances. Beyond the low end rain chances, some breezy winds are likely behind the front Sunday afternoon and evening, so continue to monitor for some elevated fire concerns given the ongoing drought conditions. Key Message 3: Refreshingly cooler but very dry start to next week. Little change in the forecast evolution behind the cold front, with a break from the Summerlike temperatures as cool airmass moves into the region to start off next week. Ensembles continue to trend towards near to below average temps throughout the early half of next week as a result. Dry conditions are also expected to continue with notable moisture return to the region expected through at the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions generally expected through the forecast period. Little overall change in the air mass or pattern impacting the region. High pressure remains anchored over the western Atlantic with southwesterly surface winds. Winds have remained elevated due to a 25 knot low level jet and that should prevent fog concerns although decided to leave a tempo for vsby restrictions at AGS due to river proximity. Winds should pick up to around 8 to 10 knots after 15z with daytime mixing expected with another hot day. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...High pressure to dominate through the upcoming week, the chance for widespread restrictions remains low. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...42 AVIATION...23  875 FXHW60 PHFO 150638 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 838 PM HST Tue Apr 14 2026 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure system lingers far north of the Hawaiian Islands producing light and variable winds with chances for showers through Thursday. A passing high pressure system will bring a short return to easterly trade winds with subtle drying trends from Thursday night into Saturday. A series of low pressure systems passing just north of the state will produce light southeasterly winds from Sunday into the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM UPDATE... The large scale weather pattern remains unusual for this time of year due to the absence of a high pressure ridge that normally sets up just north of the Hawaiian Islands producing persistent and stable easterly trade winds. Large scale wind speeds will remain light, allowing local scale onshore sea breezes to develop daily over all islands. In the short range forecast cloudy skies and chances for light to moderate rain will continue. Several slow moving low pressure systems passing north of the island chain will keep trade winds away for most of the seven day forecast time period lasting into next week. A brief return of easterly trade winds from Thursday night into Saturday will be fleeting. A series of low pressure systems passing just north of the state will produce light southeasterly winds from Sunday into the middle of next week. The current forecast grids look reasonable for this weather pattern, no evening updates. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 350 PM HST Tue Apr 14 2026 This afternoon's radar and satellite imagery shows an increase of moderate to locally heavy showers over parts of windward Kauai and central Oahu as a result of the day time sea breeze convergence and lingering moisture over the western half of the state. For tonight, we should generally see showers decrease across the state with land breezes developing over many areas. For Wednesday and Thursday, trade winds will gradually fill in from east to west across the state with moderate trades expected by Thursday. Although the weather will be cloudy at times due to the upper level trough to our west, lower levels of the atmosphere will be fairly dry with mainly some isolated to scattered showers expected. The one exception is over Kauai, where we could see afternoon showers develop Wednesday afternoon over interior areas. Drier conditions are expected by Thursday for Kauai. For Friday into the weekend, we will see an upper level trough digging down into the vicinity of the state from the northwest. The latest 12Z guidance continues to show the main moisture staying off to the west of the state with a surface low developing this weekend and lifting off to the north on both the GFS and ECMWF models. A subtle shift with the trough further east could change the weekend forecast quite a bit, so at this time the forecast for the weekend still remains uncertain. At the very least, we will likely see an increase of showers due to some low level moisture moving in from the east. Moderate easterly trades on Friday will likely gradually weaken and veer towards the southeast over the weekend especially around Sunday && .AVIATION... Issued at 350 PM HST Tue Apr 14 2026 Mostly VFR, but isolated IFR in low clouds persists, especially at PHNY. This should end this evening. There is a chance of showers at PHLI through early evening, with brief MVFR possible, but not expected. Winds will increase slightly overnight and become generally southeast Wednesday. ENE trades should return Thursday. No AIRMETs in effect. && .MARINE... Weak troughing remains in place west of the state and will help to maintain gentle to locally moderate southeast flow through Thursday. Building high pressure then supports locally fresh trades across the waters Friday into the weekend. A small, short-period, NW swell will continue to diminish into the weekend. A small, medium- period, S swell will boost surf along S shores through Friday, then subside over the weekend. Surf along E shores remains below the seasonal average as trades remain light. Increasing trades by week's end then brings a slight bump to surf. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM UPDATE...Bohlin PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Kino AVIATION...Parker MARINE...JT  372 FXUS61 KBUF 150638 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 238 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Severe thunderstorm threat has slightly increased across the Southern Tier this afternoon. Severe thunderstorms risk has also increased Thursday from the Finger Lakes to the southern Tug Hill region, with a Slight Risk (level 2/5) now in place. A Marginal Risk remains for the rest of the forecast area. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Warm with rounds of showers and thunderstorms through much of the week. 2) Severe thunderstorms remain possible through Thursday, with locally heavy rainfall also possible through tonight. 3) The very warm pattern continues through Saturday before much colder air arrives by early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Warm with rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the end of the work week. An unsettled and active pattern will continue through the end of the workweek with a WSW-ENE oriented frontal zone draped across the Great Lakes and Northeast. Numerous convectively augmented shortwaves will move through the zonal flow pattern aloft along the frontal zone and support numerous waves of showers and thunderstorms. A weakening MCS will reach Western NY before daybreak today, then move rapidly east across the rest of the area this morning and continue to weaken with time and eastern extent as it races out ahead of the reservoir of stronger instability over the upper Ohio Valley. Expect a period of mainly dry weather for a few hours in the wake of the departing MCS. Another round of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop later this afternoon and evening with diurnal instability and the arrival of another convectively augmented shortwave. The best coverage of showers and thunderstorms will likely be late this afternoon through this evening south of the NYS Thruway where greater instability will develop, and forcing is forecast to maximize ahead of the next shortwave. Convection will diminish in coverage overnight as the shortwave moves east and the boundary layer stabilizes. There will still likely be a few scattered showers lingering with deep moisture still in place and the frontal zone lingering nearby. Late tonight through Thursday expect a rinse and repeat pattern, with another potential decaying area of convection arriving early in the morning, followed by additional rounds of showers and a few scattered thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening. Friday, a stronger mid level shortwave will cross the eastern Great Lakes in the morning, with a somewhat cooler airmass moving into the region. The cooler air will reduce the chances of thunder. Showers will continue through the first half of the day before tapering off from west to east in the afternoon and evening as a skinny ridge of high pressure builds into the eastern Great Lakes. KEY MESSAGE 2...Severe thunderstorms remain possible in some areas through Thursday, with locally heavy rainfall also possible through tonight. Active weather will persist through much of the week as described in key message (1). The eastern Great Lakes will remain in a "ridge roller" type pattern with multiple convectively enhanced shortwaves spilling across a quasi-stationary E-W oriented thermal boundary over the Great Lakes today through Thursday. This setup will be supportive for a few strong to severe thunderstorms, though the main threat area will differ each period through Thursday. The boundary will finally get shunted more firmly southeast of the region as a cold front Thursday night. The first low-end severe potential will come as a potent MCS moving east of Michigan tracks into the Eastern Great Lakes region. RAP13 environmental analysis depicts 500-1500J/kg of MUCAPE ahead of this complex, though these values decrease with eastward extent into NYS. Shear profiles appear generally unidirectional with 0-6km magnitudes of around 45kts. It is thus expected that this system will hold together and track into the forecast area early this morning, arriving in WNY around 5AM. While this MCS has a history of producing very strong surface winds, the decreasing amount of instability and unfavorable diurnal timing in our area will be working against it and should cause a general weakening trend, especially as it moves further east. Still, it will need to be closely monitored this morning. Behind this initial swath of showers and thunderstorms, there should be a break in the activity until the next convective shortwave arrives later this afternoon. The environment south of the stalled overhead boundary will recover to allow MLCAPE values to increase to around 1000-2000J/kg across the Southern Tier in particular. Wind profiles aloft will also strengthen through overall shear magnitudes will remain similar to those this morning. Severe risk will likely be mostly contingent on the exact track of this next shortwave. Latest hi-res guidance indicates a fairly well-defined QLCS moving into northern Pennsylvania which may partially clip over the NY/PA border, though there are subtle differences in this northern extent. Should this system develop as advertised and take a more northern track, could see a swath of strong wind gusts, marginally severe hail and/or even an isolated tornado in the Southern Tier later this afternoon and early evening. For Thursday, the severe threat will likely be driven by a much broader upstream shortwave that will briefly drive a strong 45kt southwesterly LLJ into the forecast area from the Ohio Valley. The arrival of this jet will likely coincide with peak diurnal heating hours in the afternoon. Instability will likely be greatest (nearing 1000J/kg) in our area across the Finger Lakes and towards the Tug Hill region, which is where the higher risk of severe weather may become focused Thursday. Shear profiles suggest strong multicellular convection growing into line segments may be possible with damaging winds being the primary hazard. In addition to the severe weather threat, given the moist antecendant conditions and PWAT values between 1.25-1.5" through Thursday, there is a low-end threat for excessive rainfall. This would mainly be a concern if the same spatial areas see repeated rounds of convection in quick succession, especially those with complex terrain such as the Southern Tier. Given the relatively quick storm motions expected and fairly large breaks between most rounds of convection, this is not the primary concern but one worth monitoring over the next couple of days. KEY MESSAGE 3...The very warm pattern continues through Saturday before much colder air arrives by early next week. A thermal ridge will build into the eastern Great Lakes and Northeast Saturday just ahead of a deepening trough over the upper Midwest. Temperatures will soar into at least the mid to upper 70s, with 80s a possibility if clouds and showers hold off until late in the day. A strong cold front will then cross the eastern Great Lakes Saturday night, with another round of showers and scattered thunderstorms along and ahead of the front. There may be some severe potential if convection arrives by late afternoon and evening Saturday when stronger diurnal instability is still available. Strong cold advection will develop behind the cold front by Saturday morning. A deep trough will become established across the eastern Great Lakes and Northeast Sunday night through Monday, delivering an unseasonably cold airmass. 850MB temps will bottom out in the -10C to -14C range, more than cold enough to support lake effect and upslope snow showers in a northwest flow regime Sunday night through Monday morning. Moisture appears limited and the favorable synoptic scale setup is brief, so any accumulations will be minor. Highs Monday will only be in the lower 40s at best, and may stay in the 30s if clouds persist most of the day. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Variable flight conditions expected for the 06z TAF cycle as a couple of convective shortwaves are expected to move into the region, bringing periods of showers and thunderstorms. Conditions are expected to prevail in VFR/MVFR range in most areas through 00z this evening, with IFR cigs at times in the North Country. The first round of convection will arrive at the western terminals (KBUF/KIAG/KROC) between 09z and 10z this morning. This will likely bring TSRA at least as far east as KROC, with sharply decreasing chances across the North Country. Vsbys may briefly dip into IFR range as showers and thunderstorms with this complex move through. While the system is expected to weaken as it arrives and moves through, there is a chance for strong, brief surface wind gusts in excess of 40kts. Following a break in the precipitation, the bulk of the morning hours will be dry until additional convection moves in from the west this afternoon. Thunderstorms are likely in the Southern Tier from KJHW to KELZ between 19z and 02z, with decreasing chances further north and with time further into tonight. A stalled frontal boundary in the vicinity and another approaching shortwave may allow for additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms overnight tonight. Between these showers and warm, moist air flowing across the cold lakes, a mix of MVFR and IFR is expected to prevail across the region with patchy fog developing. Outlook... Thursday and Thursday night...VFR/MVFR with some local IFR at times. Numerous rounds of showers and scattered thunderstorms. Friday...VFR/MVFR with showers possible. Saturday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers later in the afternoon. Sunday...A mixture of MVFR/IFR with rain showers mixing with and changing to snow through the day. && .MARINE... Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected to cross the lakes through Thursday, a few of which may produce strong surface wind gusts and locally higher waves. Otherwise, with the warmer airmass in place and relatively cold lake temperatures, limited mixing of synoptic winds should preclude any prolonged SCA- conditions across the waters. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hitchcock/PP AVIATION...PP MARINE...PP  610 FXUS61 KPHI 150640 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 240 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the heat forecast and showers/thunderstorm forecast for this afternoon and evening. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Another round of showers and thunderstorms move through this evening, mainly north of I-78. A Marginal (1/5) Risk for severe storms is in place for that area. Main concern is damaging wind gusts. 2. Record breaking warmth continues this week with very warm and above normal temperatures continuing through the upcoming weekend. Today and tomorrow will see records fall and will be the warmest days of the stretch with upper 80s/low 90s expected. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Another round of showers and thunderstorms move through this evening, mainly north of I-78. A Marginal (1/5) Risk for severe storms is in place for that area. Main concern is damaging wind gusts. For today, there is another chance for isolated severe weather across portions of eastern PA and northern NJ where a Marginal Risk remains in place for some isolated damaging winds and small hail. However, it is worth noting that this threat is highly conditional depending on how convection evolves from upstream and with any remaining outflow boundaries. An MCS is currently moving through over the Great Lakes and should fizzle later this morning near the Appalachian region. Similar to yesterday, diurnal heating will likely contribute to some reinvigorating of convection in the afternoon to our west and push toward the area in the late afternoon/early evening. The severe threat will ultimately depend on how upstream convection evolves. MLCAPE Values in the northern third of our region should be around 1000-1500 J/kg though with only 20-30 kt of bulk shear. Thinking the timing may not line up perfectly with forcing coming in a bit later closer to sunset as instability is waning, which will be a limiting factor with today's severe threat. Forecast guidance notoriously struggles with these types of scenarios, so confidence on today's threat is low. Thinking the main area to watch over the early evening will be near and north of I-78. In terms of timing with the thunderstorms, it does look to come in a bit later, which as mentioned above will limit the severe threat some. Looking at a window from about 6 PM to Midnight across the northern Lehigh Valley, southern Poconos, and northern NJ. KEY MESSAGE 2...Record breaking warmth continues this week with very warm and above normal temperatures continuing through the upcoming weekend. Today and tomorrow will likely see records fall and will be the warmest days of the stretch with upper 80s/low 90s expected. With high pressure situated over the Atlantic Ocean and the warm front well north of the Mid-Atlantic region, continued warmth is expected for today. Very warm air aloft coupled with warm air at surface levels will allow temperatures to be as much as 15 to 30 degrees above average through the end of the week. Highs today and tomorrow will be in the upper 80s/low 90s. Tomorrow's highs could be a touch cooler with some cloud cover in place. However, still expecting several high temperature and warmest low temperature records to fall over the next two days. See Climate Section to see the daily records for today and tomorrow. Today is set to be the first 90 degree day of the year for most and first since early September. As is typical in spring though, temperatures along/near the coast will be significantly cooler due to the colder sea surface temperatures and diurnal sea breeze. While a weak surface front passes through early Friday morning, temperatures will stay well above normal through the weekend with temps mainly in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Temperatures finally appear to cool back toward seasonable levels early next week. Not only will it be very warm over the course of the week, but it will also remain mainly dry. This is of elevated concern for ongoing drought/abnormally dry conditions over much of the area, which will likely only get worse after this week. Rain chances are in the forecast north/west of the I-95 corridor for this evening and Thursday Night, but rainfall amounts are minimal. Showers move through on Friday region-wide but QPF is only a few hundredths. More widespread and wetting rain (0.10" or greater) could come on Sunday. Flow will generally be out of the southwest, which is more favorable in terms of moisture. This will likely hinder the fire weather concerns as min RHs should be above 30%. Winds will generally be light as well, serving as another limiting factor. So, even though it will be warm and dry, fire weather concerns are minimal. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Through 12z...VFR. Cannot rule out some patchy fog (10-15% chance) but not high enough to include in any TAF site. Southwest winds around 5 kt. Moderate confidence. Wednesday...Primarily VFR. Late day/early evening showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop near and north of I-78 which could affect KABE/KRDG (15-25% chance). Bulk of the convection should stay to the north though. I-95 and South Jersey terminals should be well south of any showers/thunderstorms. Southwest winds around 5-10 kt in the morning, increasing to around 10-15 kt in the afternoon, with gusts around 20 kt. Moderate confidence. Wednesday Night...VFR. Showers near KABE/KRDG until about 03z-04z which could result in some restrictions. Southwest winds 5 to 10 kt. Moderate confidence. Outlook... Thursday....VFR. No significant weather. Thursday Night through Friday...Primarily VFR. Cannot rule out brief periods of restrictions with any showers moving through (15-30% chance). Friday Night through Saturday...VFR. No significant weather. Saturday Night through Sunday...Primarily VFR. Some restrictions possible (30-50%) with periods of showers moving through. && .MARINE... Sub-SCA conditions expected through Thursday. Winds out of the southwest around 10-20 kt with 2 to 4 foot seas. Outlook... Thursday Night through Saturday Night...No marine headlines expected. Sunday...SCA conditions possible (30-50%) as winds out of the west/southwest near 25 kt and seas nearing 5 feet. && .CLIMATE... Warm temperatures well above normal are expected for the upcoming week. Wednesday is currently projected to be the warmest day, though Tuesday through Thursday could see some records broken depending on the site. Record highs on Tuesday April 14 were tied at Wilmington and Georgetown today, with a record high set in Atlantic City. No record warmest lows were set on Tuesday. Below are record highs and record high minimum temperatures for April 15th through April 16th. Record High Temperatures April 15 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 86/1941 & 1994 AC Airport (ACY) 90/1967 AC Marina (55N) 86/1941 Georgetown (GED) 86/1960 & 2024 Mount Pocono (MPO) 82/1941 Philadelphia (PHL) 88/1941 Reading (RDG) 86/1941 & 1994 Trenton (TTN) 87/1994 Wilmington (ILG) 86/1896 Record Warmest Low Temperatures April 15 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 59/2002 AC Airport (ACY) 61/2002 AC Marina (55N) 59/2006 Georgetown (GED) 65/2002 Mount Pocono (MPO) 58/2002 Philadelphia (PHL) 64/2002 Reading (RDG) 64/1938 Trenton (TTN) 63/2002 Wilmington (ILG) 62/2002 Record High Temperatures April 16 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 90/2012 AC Airport (ACY) 89/2002 AC Marina (55N) 88/2002 Georgetown (GED) 89/2002 Mount Pocono (MPO) 85/2002 Philadelphia (PHL) 90/2002 Reading (RDG) 90/2012 Trenton (TTN) 91/2012 Wilmington (ILG) 92/1896 Record Warmest Low Temperatures April 16 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 60/1941 AC Airport (ACY) 62/2002 AC Marina (55N) 64/2002 Georgetown (GED) 65/2012 Mount Pocono (MPO) 56/2002 Philadelphia (PHL) 62/2002 Reading (RDG) 65/1941 Trenton (TTN) 62/2002 Wilmington (ILG) 63/2002 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DeSilva/Hoeflich AVIATION...Hoeflich MARINE...Hoeflich  252 FXUS61 KAKQ 150640 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 240 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated discussion. No significant forecast changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Record to near-record high temperatures prevail through Thursday. 2) Continued dry with fire weather concerns expected for much of the week. 3) Well above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather continue through Saturday. A stronger cold front brings a chance for showers on Sunday, but it does not look at all like a widespread soaking rain. Many areas likely see less than 0.10". && .DISCUSSION... As of 240 AM EDT Wednesday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Record to near-record high temperatures prevail through Thursday. The overall pattern remains similar to yesterday with surface high pressure still well offshore of the Carolina coast, and strong upper ridging situated from the Gulf coast to Southeast CONUS. The resulting persistent return flow will continue to lock in a very warm, dry SSW flow regime through Thursday. This Bermuda High setup, more typical of early to mid summer, will allow for record to near record high temperatures through Thursday. The primary difference from summer will be MUCH lower dew pts which will keep apparent temperatures at or below actual air temperatures, which is far more comfortable than typical summertime conditions. Today and tomorrow will likely be the hottest days of the week, with widespread lower 90s (and localized mid 90s possible inland...especially today) given increasing 925-850 mb temperatures and continued deep mixing. Highs will be a few degrees cooler on the eastern shore. Some record highs will likely be tied or broken today and potentially Thu. The current records at our long-term climate sites are noted in the climate section below. KEY MESSAGE 2...Continued dry with fire weather concerns expected for much of the week. With high pressure dominating our weather pattern, and no appreciable precipitation expected through the end of the week, fire weather concerns will remain an issue to monitor for much of the rest of the week. After collaboration with VA State Forestry yesterday (Tue), will continue with the Increased Fire Danger Statement for portions of VA today (Wed) where aftn gusts to around 20 mph are co-located with min RH values at or below 30%, along with highs in the low to locally mid 90s. This generally includes all of central and east central VA from the Piedmont to Williamsburg and interior SE VA. The SPS also includes Northampton County, NC as per collaboration with NCFS yesterday. Similar conditions are likely on Thu with minimum RH values averaging 25-30% inland and 30-35% closer to the coast (along with ~20 mph gusts). The wind will be slightly less on Friday with more cloud cover due to a passing shortwave, though very little to no precip is expected and min RH values will be around 25-40%. KEY MESSAGE 3...Well above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather continue through Saturday. A stronger cold front brings a chance for showers on Sunday, but it does not look at all like a widespread soaking rain. Many areas likely see less than 0.10". Slightly cooler mid 80s to around 90F on Friday as a weak shortwave brings more cloud cover to the area. Moisture return ahead of this feature will be meager, so only isolated showers are possible on Friday with that shortwave (mainly confined to the far N). Rain amounts will likely be a few hundredths of an inch at best, and most areas will stay dry. Ensemble probs of 0.01" of rain on Friday are 30% at most across northern portions of the FA. One last very warm/hot and dry day on Saturday (lower 90s inland) as upper heights build again. The global models and ensembles show continuity and high confidence that a stronger front crosses the area on Sunday as low pressure tracks into Ontario/Quebec. While moisture return ahead of this front will be better than what is expected on Friday, it does not look promising for a widespread soaking rain. Scattered showers are possible during the day, with a low chc of a tstm. Most of the precip looks to fall behind the front. Depending on the timing of the FROPA Sunday, afternoon temps could drop into the 60s or even 50s, which could easily yield 24 hour temp changes on the order of 30 degrees F. Ensemble probs of 0.10"+ of rain have increased slightly (to 40-70% across most areas), and are highest NE/lowest SW. Cooler wx returns behind the front early next week, with highs mainly in the 60s to near 70F and lows down into the mid 30s to mid 40s for Mon night/Tue AM. Can't completely rule out frost well inland next Tue AM as high pressure settles over the area. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 140 AM EDT Wednesday... High pressure offshore of the region will favor VFR conditions through the 06z/15 TAF period and beyond. Skies will be mostly clear outside of high clouds through the period. SW winds average 5 to 10 knots this morning, increasing to ~10 to 12 knots by midday/aftn with gusts to around 20 knots. Outlook: VFR and dry conditions are expected to prevail through Saturday. Mainly S-SW winds also prevail throughout the forecast period, as high pressure settles over the western Atlantic. && .MARINE... As of 240 AM EDT Wednesday... - Sub-SCA conditions are expected to prevail through much of the week with a brief surge in winds Thursday night. - Next round of potential elevated marine conditions return by the end of the weekend. Morning weather analysis 1022mb high pressure continuing to sit off the southeast coast. This is allowing SW winds to prevail around 10 to 15kt across all waters. These winds will continue to prevail through at least Thursday evening. Will note, there could be brief periods of 20 kt gusts especially across the nearshore waters due to day time heating. Waves are remaining between 1-2ft across the bay and 3-4ft across the oceans. A weak cold front is forecasted to move over the waters Thursday evening into Friday. The pressure gradient ahead the front is progged to slightly tighten. This will assist in increasing the winds around 15 to 20kt with the highest winds over the ocean. Seas will build to roughly 4ft and perhaps 5ft around 20nm. A brief SCA cannot ruled out during this time frame. However, confidence is low given the marginal conditions. Looking towards the weekend benign marine conditions are forecasted both Friday and Saturday. By Sunday, a much stronger cold front is progged to move through the waters brining SCA conditions lasting through Monday with the additional surge of cooler and drier air. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temps for 4/15 - 4/18 Record Record Record Record High/Yr High/Yr High/Yr High/Yr Location 4/15 4/16 4/17 4/18 -------- ----- ------ ------ ------ Richmond 92 (1941) 93 (1976) 96 (1976) 95 (1976) Norfolk 90 (2024) 91 (1976) 93 (2002) 95 (1896) Salisbury 87 (1941) 89 (1976) 92 (2002) 90 (1976) Eliz. City 91 (1941) 90 (1941) 92 (1976) 91 (1941) Record High Min Temps for 4/15 - 4/18 Record Record Record Record High High High High Min T/Yr Min T/Yr Min T/Yr Min T/Yr Location 4/15 4/16 4/17 4/18 -------- ---- ----- ------ ------ Richmond 64 (2018) 64 (1912) 65 (1912) 64 (2002) Norfolk 68 (1941) 66 (2017) 68 (2002) 68 (2002) Salisbury 64 (2002) 63 (2017) 64 (2002) 65 (1918) Eliz. City 68 (1974) 68 (1994) 68 (1945) 65 (2002) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from 11 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ012. VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from 11 AM EDT this morning through this evening for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075-076-079>083- 087>090-092-093-509>522. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ERI/LKB AVIATION...AJB/ERI MARINE...AC/HET CLIMATE...MAM  285 FXUS62 KGSP 150640 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 240 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... An SPS for Increased Fire Danger has been issued for this afternoon and evening for northeast Georgia. The aviation discussion was updated for the 06Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Fire weather concerns continue amid a dry and stagnant weather pattern. A Fire Danger Statement has been issued again for Wednesday afternoon for all of western North Carolina and northeast Georgia. Critically low relative humidity and breezy conditions are likely to occur each of the next several afternoons. 2. Hot and dry through Saturday with high temperatures near daily records. A cold front may bring some rainfall to our area on Sunday, but any accumulations will likely be too small to improve drought conditions. Near-normal temperatures are expected early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Key message 1: Fire weather concerns continue amid a dry and stagnant weather pattern. A Fire Danger Statement has been issued again for Wednesday afternoon for all of western North Carolina and northeast Georgia. Critically low relative humidity and breezy conditions are likely to occur each of the next several afternoons. Continued low-level southwesterly flow from a weak Bermuda surface ridge will continue through Thursday. Despite the typical moisture return in this regime, deep boundary layer mixing will continue to tap into very dry air aloft, which will cause dewpoints to mix out during peak heating. Combine that with early Summer-like temperatures and RH values will dip between 25-30% each afternoon. Winds at the top of the boundary layer (<=800mb) will be strong enough to produce breezy conditions (gusts up to 15-20 mph) as well, especially Thursday when the winds uptick slightly with an incoming shortwave from the west. As a result, at least Increased Fire Danger Statements will be issued for western NC and northeast GA this afternoon and Thursday afternoon. Even if the criteria isn't fully met, low RH values, high heat stress, and very dry vegetation will enhance the risk for wildfire development. Expect this threat to linger into Friday and Saturday as well, so daily Fire Danger Statements remain possible through the rest of the week. The Fire Danger Statement for all of western North Carolina was in coordination with the North Carolina Forest Service and is in effect from Noon to 8 PM today. A Fire Danger Statement is in effect from Noon to 8 PM today for northeast Georgia for ongoing dry fuels and RH values getting close to the critical threshold of 30%. A Fire Danger Statement will likely be needed for all of western NC and northeast Georgia again Thursday, as RH may dip a little lower and winds are expected to be gustier out of the SW. Can't rule out a potential Red Flag Warning on Thursday with critical thresholds for low RHs and gustier winds possibly being met. Key message 2: Hot and dry through Saturday with high temperatures near daily records. A cold front may bring some rainfall to our area on Sunday, but any accumulations will likely be too small to improve drought conditions. Near-normal temperatures are expected early next week. Upper ridging will build over the Southeast into Thursday while the Bermuda surface high keeps warm, SLY flow over our area. An embedded upper shortwave trof will move over the Carolinas early Friday, with heights rebounding quickly in its wake. A much broader and deeper upper trof will pass just to our north late Sunday into Monday and push a robust cold front through our area on Sunday. A weaker cold front does approach the western Carolinas late Thursday, however it gets pushed northward by the Bermuda high and washes out over the Appalachians on Friday. I wouldn't rule out a few showers over the NC mtns, mostly along the NC/TN Border region, late Thurs into early Fri, but any precip amounts would be minimal. The more robust front on Sunday has the potential to bring more widespread showers to our area, however the latest model guidance continues to produce little in the way of accumulations outside of the NC mtns and foothills, and accums over those areas are generally less than 0.15 inches. So it's still looking like any precip that we get from this system will have little impact on the current drought. While temperatures will be summer-like and approach daily records through Saturday, the humidity will remain lower. Relative humidity values in the 25 to 35% range are expected each afternoon through the weekend, with values below 20% possible early next week. In addition, gusty winds are expected across our area on Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday which will likely increase the overall fire danger. Fortunately temperatures cool to near-normal behind the cold front on Monday and Tuesday, however the airmass remains very dry. In addition, freezing temperatures are possible over portions of the NC mtns early Monday and frost-producing temperatures are possible early Tuesday. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions will prevail through the 06Z TAF period with periods of thin cirrus. Light southwest winds through this morning will pick up in speed (6-12 kts) by early afternoon, with some low-end gusts possible during peak heating. Winds should subside after sunset and continue out of the southwest. Outlook: VFR prevails the rest of the week and into the weekend. A few low VFR clouds, and perhaps stray SHRA, are possible late Thursday or Thursday night over the Appalachians. && .CLIMATE... RECORDS FOR 04-15 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 89 1972 42 1943 64 1887 23 1907 KCLT 89 1936 46 1889 66 2006 28 1907 KGSP 91 2006 45 1913 69 1922 22 1907 RECORDS FOR 04-16 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 87 2006 42 1905 62 1945 26 1943 KCLT 89 2006 49 1890 64 1998 29 2008 1896 1991 1962 1945 KGSP 88 1888 54 1903 64 1945 24 1907 RECORDS FOR 04-17 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 89 1896 45 1890 63 1927 26 1904 KCLT 94 1896 47 1890 66 1896 30 2018 1949 KGSP 92 2006 51 1904 63 1927 25 1905 RECORDS FOR 04-18 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 90 1896 44 1921 60 1927 28 1905 1891 KCLT 93 1896 45 1983 66 1896 32 2001 KGSP 89 2002 51 1983 66 1927 28 1905 1967 && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from noon EDT today through this evening for GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029. NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from noon EDT today through this evening for NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082- 501>510. SC...None. && $$ CAC/JPT  442 FXUS64 KLZK 150642 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 142 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 141 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 -Isolated storms possible Weds mid-afternoon -Rain chances become more widespread as Wed evening into early Thurs morning. -Well above normal temps Friday -Cool down and rain chances increase Saturday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 141 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A lingering line of t'storms is weakening across NW AR early Weds morning. Light showers will persist in the area through pre-sunrise hours. By sunrise PoPs will decrease across the area as the remnants of the complex pull to the north. Rain and t'storm chances will begin to increase again Weds afternoon as a deepening shortwave rounds the base of a shallow H500 trough along the NE/SD border. Southerly flow out ahead of dry line stretching across Central KS to TX will create a favorable environment for isolated storms to form across Central MO and tailing down to Northern AR by mid-afternoon. Straight hodographs will keep tornado risk low with early development. Hailers and splitting cells will be more likely if development can tail far enough south into North Central AR. The more widespread rainfall event will be later in the evening Weds and overnight into Thurs morning. Isolated storms/supercells will develop along the dryline to our W by late-afternoon Weds. As these storms push off the dryline they will become more upscale. If these can remain rooted along the surface a brief all hazards severe threat will be possible in NW AR but will quickly diminish as the line pushes to the east and loses much of its organization. Convection becomes more scattered early Thurs morning as storms run into a very stable SFC to 700mb layer in Estrn AR. Chances for rain will then diminish until later in the week. Well above normal temps will flow into the area Thurs and Fri. Widespread highs in the upper 80s to near 90 will be likely on Fri. Into the weekend a positively tilted trough will swing to neutral across the region. This will bring our next chance of rain across our area. Uncertainty remains on where peak development along the cold front. QPFs >1 inch will be possible where convection does develop Sat into Sun. Behind the cldfrnt temps return closer to normal Sun into Mon, and Min RH values will plummet into the mid to low 20s across the state. Areas that dodge showers this week will likely become very dry. During this same time period winds remain srthly but rather benign around 8-10kts with few to no gusts. This will limit the upper end of fire wx risk, but the critical Min RHs and where meaningfully rain falls will still need to be monitored later into the week. By Tues next week srthly flow will continue across the region and begin increasing Min RH values to above critical thresholds. Temps will begin to increase to above normal again by mid next week as a ridge spreads across Central CONUS. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 The northern sites of KHRO and KBPK can expect VCTS over the first few hours of the forecast period from TSRA moving out of Oklahoma into northern Arkansas. CIGS will lower to MVFR flight category at all terminals for a few hours before lifting back to VFR flight category on Wednesday morning. Surface wind gusts will be present at all terminals in excess of 20 to 25 knots later Wednesday morning until Wednesday evening when surface winds will lose their gusting condition. VCTS will return to the sites of KHRO and KBPK late in the forecast period from Wednesday evening into Wednesday night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 83 66 82 64 / 20 80 70 10 Camden AR 85 64 86 64 / 0 40 40 10 Harrison AR 78 61 80 63 / 70 90 60 10 Hot Springs AR 81 62 82 63 / 20 70 40 10 Little Rock AR 83 66 83 66 / 10 70 60 10 Monticello AR 86 66 86 66 / 0 20 40 10 Mount Ida AR 80 62 82 64 / 30 80 40 10 Mountain Home AR 80 62 81 62 / 60 80 60 0 Newport AR 85 67 83 65 / 10 70 80 10 Pine Bluff AR 85 66 85 65 / 0 50 50 10 Russellville AR 81 63 82 64 / 40 80 60 10 Searcy AR 83 64 83 62 / 10 70 70 10 Stuttgart AR 84 67 84 66 / 0 50 70 10 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...78 LONG TERM....78 AVIATION...74  362 FXUS65 KABQ 150642 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1242 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1239 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Hazardous crosswinds will create difficult travel for large and high-profile vehicles again Thursday and Friday mainly across eastern NM. - Critical fire weather conditions return Thursday to northeastern and east-central NM and a majority of the state Friday, increasing the threat of rapid fire spread from any new spark. - A hard freeze is forecast Friday night into Saturday morning across portions of central, western and northern NM. Take precautions to protect early blooming plants. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 1239 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Calmer conditions are moving into the Land of Enchantment tonight as yesterday's upper low opens and ejects northeastward out over the central Great Plains region tonight. A few locations continue to see localized breezy conditions near this midnight hour, but overall lighter winds will continue to take hold tonight. The calmer and clearer conditions in tandem with lowering humidity will allow for temperatures to efficiently drop tonight. This will be especially true over the western and northern thirds of the state where Wednesday morning lows are forecast to fall to near or below freezing. This includes near freezing along the San Juan River near Farmington. Wednesday will see very pleasant spring weather across the Land of Enchantment with highs ranging from the 60s to 80s and modest afternoon breezes. Thursday sees the next round of dry and windy weather move in as a synoptic scale troughing pattern moves into the northwestern CONUS. The main trough axis of this system will still be a ways away over northern NV come Thursday, but still close enough to allow for windy conditions to spread across the state in the afternoon. Peak gusts of 35 to 45 mph will focus over the northeastern highlands and plains. Warm air advection alongside these southwesterly winds will help raise temperatures 5F to 10F into the 70s and 80s for many locations, with 60s in the higher elevations. Wind speeds taper off Thursday night as the atmosphere decouples with stronger speeds on tap for Friday to begin the long term period. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1239 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Numerical model guidance continues to unfortunately show the track of a late week system stay to the north of NM and over the CO Rockies. This will yield a dry and windy and fire growth pattern across the Land of Enchantment. This system, anchored by a ~100kt H3 jetmax on its southeastern periphery will quickly produce strong southwesterly winds across the state early Friday. These stronger winds gusting 45 to 55 mph will first focus over the central mountain chain before spreading to surrounding lower elevations early Friday afternoon. The Pacific portion of the cold front will bring a sharp northwesterly wind shift to the Four Corners region first near midday before advancing south and eastward across the state reaching the central mountain chain and highlands in the early evening. As such, southwesterly winds will begin to taper off first over the south-central mountains near Ruidoso, becoming focused along the Sangre de Cristo's and over the central highlands Friday evening, veering west to northwest during this time. This will be where the strongest wind gusts of 45 to 60 mph will be favored to occur, notably along the central and northeastern highlands and plains. Thereafter, winds will taper off nearly all areas late Friday evening and night. The exception looks to be the central highlands where subsidence behind the front bringing down locally stronger H7 winds will likely keep strong westerly to northwesterly winds going a bit closer to midnight Friday night. The Pacific and backdoor portions of the cold front meet across eastern NM, advancing southward together thru the night with winds lessening area wide thru Saturday morning. A sharp drop in temperatures aided by lessening winds and very low Td's in the single-digits to near zero will allow for some very cold low temperatures Saturday morning. Lows in the teens and low 20s across the western and northern third of the state will threaten a hard freeze, capable of killing early season blooms that awoke too early from March's record heat wave. A soft freeze will also favor areas in the middle Rio Grande Valley in Albuquerque and much of the east-central plains from Tucumcari to Clovis, as well as the San Francisco River Valley from Luna to Glenwood. Temperatures warm back into the 50s and 60s across the area Saturday afternoon with pleasant weather conditions. Winds veer out of the south Sunday bringing a warm up and increased moisture and humidity to the area to end the weekend. This will only yield a modest increase in precipitation chances Sunday and Monday with afternoon virga showers favored for the most part. Tuesday sees forecast confidence plummet as a significant closed low swirls over or just offshore CA. Model guidance is having a notably hard time resolving the evolution and track of this system given its complex and dynamic structure. Nevertheless, increased winds and precipitation chances currently looked favored to enter the region sometime during the middle portion of next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1111 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Strong southwesterly winds have tapered off this evening with lighter prevailing winds forecast tonight into Wednesday morning. A breezy northerly drainage wind is forecast at KSAF as one exception to this rule. Breezy southwesterly to westerly winds return Wednesday afternoon. Otherwise, VFR prevails thru the TAF period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1239 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Elevated fire weather conditions will be present over eastern NM today with modest breezy winds this afternoon. A fire growing pattern returns Thursday ahead of a potent storm system expected to track north of NM Friday. Critical fire weather conditions will favor the northeastern highlands and plains where strong southwesterly winds gusting 35 to 45 mph will be present. Minimum humidity falling below 10 percent will allow for elevated to locally critical conditions elsewhere across the state. Much stronger southwesterly winds will expand critical fire weather condtions to a majority of the state Friday, especially along and east of the central mountain chain where gusts of 45 to 60 mph will be favored. A sharp westerly to northwesterly wind shift will follow a fast moving cold front northwest to southeast across the state Friday afternoon and evening. This will usher in a sharp drop in temperatures and dewpoints, allowing for a very cold night with subfreezing temperatures for the northwestern half of the state by Saturday morning. Winds lessen Friday night and Saturday, ending the critical fire weather threat. Temperatures rebound and warm up Sunday and Monday alongside an influx of moisture and better overnight recoveries into the region. Another round of stronger winds looks favored at some point Tuesday or Wednesday next week ahead of an approaching strong Pacific storm system. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 65 35 72 43 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 60 22 67 33 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 60 31 68 38 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 63 25 68 33 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 60 31 67 35 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 64 28 70 33 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 61 30 68 35 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 65 39 71 40 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 60 34 67 36 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 69 28 71 30 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 73 34 75 35 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 54 25 61 31 / 5 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 60 39 66 44 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 62 35 67 38 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 58 33 63 38 / 5 0 0 0 Red River....................... 49 28 54 32 / 5 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 55 21 61 25 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 62 26 68 31 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 61 32 67 35 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 68 33 74 40 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 62 39 70 43 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 65 35 73 41 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 68 44 74 49 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 70 41 77 46 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 73 39 80 45 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 70 42 77 48 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 73 34 79 41 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 71 40 77 48 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 72 34 79 41 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 71 40 78 47 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 72 36 79 43 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 65 42 73 48 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 71 41 77 48 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 75 40 80 43 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 63 39 69 44 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 64 39 70 44 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 65 34 71 40 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 66 27 73 35 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 61 35 68 38 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 65 35 71 40 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 65 36 70 41 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 68 42 73 47 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 61 40 66 46 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 61 31 71 37 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 65 29 74 34 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 68 29 77 35 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 64 34 70 38 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 69 41 79 46 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 68 36 75 42 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 76 39 84 46 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 71 38 80 45 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 77 42 85 48 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 77 44 82 50 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 78 42 83 50 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 76 39 83 46 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 80 43 86 49 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 73 42 79 48 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 71 38 75 46 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for NMZ104-123-125-126. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...24  184 FXUS63 KGLD 150644 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1244 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy S to SW winds and marginally critical fire weather possible over portions of the area, yet again, on Thursday. - A strong cold front Friday afternoon may drop temperatures below freezing overnight Friday and Saturday. Light snowfall may occur behind the front as well. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 101 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Front is pushing south through the area with dew points increasing behind it. This front is forecast to start retreating back north through the day as a warm front. A developing surface low across Colorado will be the dictating feature that will determine when and the northern extent of this. Red Flag Warning will remain but have significant concerns for the duration of the northern and eastern extent of the warning due to timing of the retreating warm front. The strongest of the winds will be to the south of the warm front where winds remain from the WSW and winds gust around 40 mph. Late this afternoon and evening rainfall chances still look to increase with the warm front, additional lift due to the low and an approaching 500mb shortwave and associated jet streak. The favored area is across Yuma, Dundy and Cheyenne (KS) this evening where high based showers characterized by inverted v soundings are in place. I do have some concern for 50-60+ mph winds with any downdrafts. Winds also may be able to mix from pressure rises on its own as well as RAP and HRRR suggest 6-8mb rises over 3 hours with the GFS being the strongest at 10mb over 3 hours. Rain chances may extend a little further south but again will be dependent on the placement of the low and where the dry slot will set up. Guidance suggests that deep saturation and perhaps even the most favorable timeframe from light rain will occur early Wednesday morning through the early afternoon as the low continues to move through the area so have increased rain chances through the morning hours. Northwest flow is forecast to be in place through the day on Wednesday with high temperatures in the 70s. Guidance is coming into agreement on a tighter pressure gradient in wake of the low with wind gusts around 30 mph across the entire area. Due to the progression of the low am forecasting these winds to ease up in magnitude as the afternoon goes on. Thursday, surface troughing is forecast to be in place across the area. A very dry airmass is also forecast to be in place as well along with warm temperatures as high temperatures reach the 80s across the area. The combination of this is leading to high confidence in single digit humidity values for most if not all of the forecast area. Do have concerns for critical fire weather but at this time winds look to be fairly marginal. Am opting to forego any fire weather highlights at this time to ensure that the signal for winds remains and does not degrade which has been the trend over the past few days. Thursday night and into the extended period a strong cold front is forecast to move into the area shifting winds to the north. If there is a fire ongoing that is something to be aware of. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 218 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A high amplitude shortwave upper-level trough looks to be making its way across the Rocky Mountains beginning Friday morning, with a modest 50-70 kt jet streak at 500-mb across the Four-Corners Region. A broad surface low pressure is favored to already exist from the Midwest back into Eastern Colorado in association with these upper- level features, and may continue to deepen throughout the day, particularly across portions of the Central and South-Central High Plains where lee cyclogenesis is favored. A strong cold front looks to begin traversing the forecast region sometime Friday afternoon, though there are some issues as to the exact timing. This matters because critical fire weather conditions may be experienced ahead of the cold front. Current forecast guidance shows mid to upper-teen relative humidities (RH) across portions of East-Central Colorado and West-Central Kansas, with wind gusts in the 25-40 mph range possible during the early to mid-afternoon. Critical fire weather conditions could be mitigated with a faster progression of the cold front, or enhanced by a slower progression. LREF guidance currently shows a large amount of variance in wind direction across portions of Northwest Kansas and Eastern Colorado Friday morning, highlighting issues regarding the front's timing. Around 60% of GEFS and EC members show a scenario where the cold front progresses faster, and thus, would mitigate the critical fire weather risk. LREF guidance would seem to support this solution, suggesting at best a 1 in 3 chance for RH values to meet critical fire weather criteria across portions of Western Kansas, and less for the rest of the region. Confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed Friday afternoon sits at around 5%. Friday evening may be accompanied by a freeze overnight behind the cold front, in addition to an opportunity for snowfall. Lows are currently forecast in the lower-20s to lower-30s Friday night across the region, with as high as a 60% chance for light snowfall across portions of Northeastern Colorado and far Southwest Nebraska. NBM guidance suggests over a 40% chance across this zone that the snowfall is measurable (>0.1 inches). Reduced visibilities due to blowing snow may also be experienced, as NBM guidance indicates that sustained winds over 25 mph can't be ruled out. Cooler conditions could last into Saturday, with highs forecast in the mid-50s to lower-60s. Critical fire weather conditions may once again be experienced across portions of Eastern Colorado and West-Central Kansas, where RH values are forecast in the mid to upper-teens, and wind gusts in the 25-40 mph range. NBM guidance suggests a 60-80% chance for wind gusts to meet criteria for critical fire weather conditions across this zone, with LREF guidance giving RH values a 50-70% chance. Even so, confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed across this zone is only about 5% due to the strength and duration of the cold front from Friday into Saturday, which may keep RH values a bit more elevated. While deterministic model guidance is a lot more divergent past Sunday morning, GEFS and EC 500-mb height mean-spread guidance suggests ridging is favored across the forecast region Sunday morning through the end of the period. Conditions look to be warm and dry, with highs in the 70s on Sunday, and 80s Monday and Tuesday. RH values continue to be forecast on the lower end, with upper single-digits to lower-teens on Sunday, and low to mid-teens Monday and Tuesday. Critical fire weather conditions may be experienced all three days, though confidence decreases for Monday and Tuesday due to timing issues of a slow- moving upper-level trough from the west. Sunday's risk seems highest, as LREF guidance suggests a 3 in 4 chance for RH values to meet criteria across most of the area, with NBM guidance yielding over 50% probabilities for wind gusts to meet criteria. Confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed Sunday is around 10%. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1200 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 GLD: Aside from a potential for borderline MVFR ceilings (3,000-4,000 ft AGL) during the morning, mainly ~14-18Z, VFR conditions will otherwise prevail through the TAF period. Expect NW winds ~15-20 knots through late morning.. with winds backing to the WNW and decreasing to 10-15 knots during the mid-late afternoon. Winds will further back to the W or WSW and decrease to 5-10 knots around sunset. MCK: Aside from a potential for borderline MVFR ceilings (3,000-4,000 ft AGL) during the morning, mainly ~14-18Z, VFR conditions will otherwise prevail through the TAF period. NNW to NW winds at 10-15 knots will back to the WNW or W and decrease to 5-10 knots during the around sunset. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Trigg LONG TERM...Davis AVIATION...Vincent  759 FXUS63 KARX 150644 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 144 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of strong to severe storms possible today and tonight, primarily affecting northeast Iowa into southwest Wisconsin with potentially damaging wind and large hail. Isolated tornado threat cannot be ruled out. - Break in storms and rainfall expected Thursday with a line of severe storms possible Friday afternoon and night. While it remains too far out to nail down details, all hazards look possible with enhanced forcing and tapping into the unstable airmass. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1217 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Ongoing Early Morning Storms: Tuesday's low level trough abandoned 1" PWATs (GOES derived) across the southeastern 3/4 of the forecast area, permitting the overnight storm threat to lie just south of the forecast area, due to enhanced forcing. Overnight storm initiation observed on DMX/OAX radar is evident of the lingering boundary as DMX VWP light north winds opposes TOP/ICT/EAX 925mb winds of 35+ kts. Fortunately, as the storms progress north towards the forecast area, a drier, colder airmass will limit overall strength. Unfortunately, areas that received heavy rainfall Tuesday night will likely see ongoing storm potential through the early morning hours potentially causing flooding in spots where strongest storms were realized and caused heaviest rainfall. Strong to Severe Storm Threat Today & Tonight: Strong to severe storm threat increases across the southern half of the forecast area this afternoon and evening as a potentially deepening low pushes northeast through the Central Plains towards the Mississippi River Valley. Similar to both Monday and Tuesday, meridional advection of the warmer, moister airmass through the late morning hours increases meager initial storm chances before the unstable airmass takes shape through the afternoon. A feedback loop between the deepening cyclone and the frontal boundary raises questions of duration and northern extent of storms. Therefore, overall confidence remains low due to differing solutions in strength of meso cyclogenesis lifting through northeast Iowa into southwest Wisconsin through the afternoon. Ongoing late morning observations of surface winds and progression of synoptic forcing will iron out further details however. The most locally widespread and potentially strong solution (HRRR/RAP) keeps an open, albeit tightening wave as it nears the forecast area, sufficiently strengthening to abate the drier air attempting to push from northwest to southeast. This solution perpetuates local storm chances across the southern half of the forecast area through the afternoon, evening, tonight, and early Thursday morning. Fortunately, associated temperature sounding profiles show mostly elevated storms, limiting tornado risk with very long, straight, hodographs raising wind threat concerns with secondary hazard of large hail. Although, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out given stretching of vorticity along the near surface frontal boundary. Furthermore, this solution suggests an initially congealed storm mode through the day becoming linear as the dry punch pushes through tonight as the meso low provides additional forcing for storms through Thursday morning. This is an outlier solution at the current juncture and given the proclivity for the HRRR to jog north/south in its solutions depending on initialization time, bears awareness rather than raw belief. Higher confidence situation in storms grazing our southern periphery this afternoon and eventually exiting east through the evening hours as the drier air quickly pushes threats south and east of the forecast area. Regardless, all will depend on previous storms which in turn depend on ongoing storms early this morning seen strewn across central Iowa. Storm Chances Return Friday Afternoon & Night: A break in storm chances on Thursday is expected as shortwave ridging allows today's drier air to the northwest to advect southeast through the local forecast area. Subsequent longwave troughing, seen in GOES WV imagery over the Pacific Northwest is expected to phase through the Central Plains Thursday, enhancing low level moisture transport into the Northern Plains Friday. Therefore, ample forcing and instability progresses east causing linear storm mode across the forecast area Friday. Unfortunately, machine learning severe weather forecast models have drastically increased local probabilities nearing 50% for the southern half of the forecast area. Current confidence is limited due to influence of diurnal heating to potential timing of frontal passage locally. Will require close monitoring in coming forecasts. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1217 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Similar overnight aviation impacts expected as Monday and Tuesday. The warm, moist airmass over the colder ground raises widespread fog concerns, potentially simply MIFG or BCFG instead of full LIFR impacts. Given the very shallow expectations, have opted for IFR visibilities at both TAF sites in a limited window. However, the very shallow nature of saturation limits overall confidence in either LIFR or VFR. Storm chances progress northeast through the forecast area this morning, afternoon, and potentially again tonight. Current confidence keeps impacts south of both TAF sites from northeast Iowa into southwest Wisconsin however any northern shift may result in scattered storms affecting either TAF site. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1217 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Fortunately, heaviest rainfall Tuesday remained south of Monday's heaviest rainfall, easing overall flooding concerns. Therefore, no changes in river flood headlines compared to previous forecasts. Tuesday's rainfall unfortunately slightly affected upstream of more locally flashier rivers in northeast Iowa (Turkey River) southeast Minnesota, and southwest Wisconsin (Kickapoo River). While initial responses on these rivers haven't been overly concerning overnight, subsequent storm chances this morning through tonight raise concern should they frequent these same areas. Similarly, ongoing river flooding in central and west-central Wisconsin is at risk should storms be realized farther north. Short reprieve in local precipitation chances Thursday ceases for Friday as the anomalously moist airmass returns for strong to severe storms pushing southeast. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JAR AVIATION...JAR HYDROLOGY...JAR  163 FXUS62 KILM 150645 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 245 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The new airmass building in early next week behind the cold front appears slightly cooler than was thought yesterday. Downward adjustments have been made to forecast temperatures beginning Sunday night. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Record warm temperatures and persistently dry weather may create fire weather hazards this week. 2) A cold front expected to arrive next Sunday will bring a low chance of showers and a cooler airmass early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Record warm temperatures and persistently dry weather may create fire weather hazards this week. The persistent 500 mb ridge off the Southeast coast should get beaten down temporarily by the passage of an upper level shortwave across the Great Lakes and Mid Atlantic on Friday. This truly is just an upper level feature with no discernible impact at or below 700 mb except for a weakening of the surface Bermuda high well offshore. Unusual warmth will continue through the period with 850 mb temps near +16C today, Thursday, and Friday, then warming to almost +18C on Saturday as the upper ridge expands one final time. This would be at record high values for this time of year at the Morehead City upper air site according to the SPC sounding climatology webpage. Inland high temperatures across Lumberton and the Pee Dee region should touch 90 degrees today, Thursday, and Friday before surging into the lower 90s on Saturday. This looks to be the hottest stretch of the year so far. Along the coast, onshore synoptic winds and/or afternoon seabreeze winds will keep highs a good 6 to 12 degrees cooler than inland locations. Descending air within the ridge and lack of Atlantic inflow (except for along the immediate coast) should allow dewpoints to mix down into the 50s each day with minimum relative humidity falling to 25-30 percent. Seven-day rainfall totals are zero, and totals over the past three weeks are only 10-30 percent of normal, leading to intensifying drought and worsening soil and fuel moisture levels. Elevated Fire Danger statements may continue daily through the end of the week. Record highs today through Saturday: ................Wed Apr 15...Thu Apr 16...Fri Apr 17...Sat Apr 18 Wilmington......92 in 2006...90 in 2006...89 in 2006...93 in 1976 Lumberton.......92 in 2006...93 in 1941...91 in 2006...91 in 1941 Florence........94 in 2006...90 in 2006...93 in 2006...93 in 1981 N Myrtle Beach..90 in 2006...87 in 2006...87 in 1995...89 in 1976 KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front expected to arrive next Sunday will bring a low chance of showers and a cooler airmass early next week. Big changes will begin Sunday with the arrival of a cold front during the day. Timing of this feature has been remarkably consistent among the GFS, Canadian, and ECMWF models for days now. Morning sunshine within the warm pre-frontal airmass Sunday should allow temps to rise well into the 80s ahead of the front. While there will be low level convergence along the front and at least small, uncapped convective instability present, deep moisture is notably lacking. If we're lucky enough to see scattered showers or storms on Sunday, they will likely develop within a thinning ribbon of 850-700 mb Gulf moisture dragged ahead of the upper trough. Rain chances are no higher than 20-30 percent and will decrease rapidly as colder, drier air pushes in behind the front Sunday evening. Model trends over the past 24-48 hours have been toward a deeper upper level trough and colder air building in for Monday. Recent GFS and ECMWF MOS guidance now show Monday's high temperatures topping out only in the 60s. Low temps Sunday night, Monday night, and perhaps even Tuesday night should dip into the 40s giving our air conditioners a welcome break after the past week of unusual heat. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR. Smoke from area wildfires could impact visibility intermittently this morning near coast, but will mix out by late morning as mixing deepens enough for any restrictions to become VFR haze. Winds generally out of the S to SW through TAF period, with gusts 15-20 kts developing behind the sea breeze at coastal terminals in the afternoon. Extended Forecast...Predominantly VFR through the week due to high pressure. Only exception could be some MVFR or even IFR fog heading into sunrise each morning. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...Bermuda High will maintain S to SW winds in the 10 to 15 kt range with a backing from SW to S and spike in winds near shore in the afternoon sea breeze. Inlets could be choppy. Seas will be 2 to 4 ft feet with a longer period easterly swell mixing in. Thursday through Sunday...A summerlike weather pattern will continue through the first half of Sunday as Bermuda high pressure offshore maintains southwesterly winds along the Carolina coast. Although synoptic wind speeds should average 10-12 knots, there will be significant increases each afternoon and evening nearshore due to the seabreeze. GFS and NAM-based Marine MOS guidance suggests 20 kt sustained winds are possible just off Wrightsville Beach Thursday afternoon and evening. Seas will consist of a mix of local wind chop with a southeasterly 10 second swell, averaging about 3 feet in height. Big changes will arrive Sunday afternoon and evening as a cold front pushes off the coast. In addition to a chance for scattered showers or thunderstorms along the front, winds will shift to the north behind the front and increase to at least 20 knots, perhaps reaching Small Craft Advisory thresholds Sunday night. Seas should also build to 3-6 feet within the stronger winds. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for SCZ054-058- 059. MARINE...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...TRA KEY MESSAGES...TRA DISCUSSION...TRA AVIATION...RGZ MARINE...TRA/RGZ  362 FXUS64 KMRX 150647 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 247 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 244 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Well above normal temperatures expected through this week into the first half of the weekend. Record highs are possible. - Chance of showers Thursday evening, but precipitation amounts will generally be light providing little relief from the worsening drought and fire weather conditions - A better chance of showers Saturday night/Sunday morning, followed by cooler temperatures early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 244 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Unseasonably hot and dry conditions continue to be the main weather story for the area, thanks to a persistent large ridge of high pressure over the Gulf and SE CONUS. For Wednesday, high temperatures will be close to record highs with a SW flow, subsidence under the ridge, and limited cloud cover. Low RH values will be of concern for fire weather interests, bottoming out in the 25-35% range Wednesday for most locations, but for the most part SW winds will not be higher than the 5-15 mph range. The mid/upper ridge will briefly be interrupted by a shortwave trough approaching from the west late Thursday that will move across our area Thursday night. The late arrival of increased cloud cover and precip chances Thursday will allow for another very warm day with high temperatures not far off the records. RH values will again bottom out in the 25 to 35% range during the afternoon and winds will be slightly stronger. As the short wave moves in it will bring a chance of showers late Thursday into Thursday night, but weak forcing and limited moisture will generally result in light rainfall amounts, and little overall impact on the ongoing drought conditions and wildfires (ensemble data has chances for 24 hour precipitation amounts exceeding a quarter inch ranging from around 10% to 30%, with the higher values across our northwest counties). Models show some limited instability that may support a few thunderstorms, with the highest chance for thunder being across our Plateau counties. The ridge will build back Friday behind the departing shortwave trough. High temperatures will be approaching records again on Friday and Saturday. Better rain chances may arrive for Saturday night into Sunday as models show a deep trough developing over the Plains that will drag a cold front through our area as the trough moves east. Models are in decent agreement on this scenario, although differ more in the details that will be important in determining how much precipitation we will see. Ensemble data currently shows around a 50% chance of seeing over a quarter inch of rain and closer to a 20% chance of seeing more than a half inch (24 hour period). What is more certain than the precip amounts is that we will see cooler temperatures moving in with high temperatures near or even a bit below normal both Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will begin to trend warmer again Tuesday. Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 04-15 87(2006) 87(1936) 85(1945) 86(2024) 04-16 89(2002) 87(1896) 87(2002) 88(2002) 04-17 91(1955) 90(1896) 85(2002) 88(1955) 04-18 90(2002) 90(1896) 87(2002) 89(2002) 04-19 91(2002) 90(1941) 90(1941) 90(2002) && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 129 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Latest KMRX VAD Wind Profile data suggest southwest winds near 25 to 30 kts are occurring around 2kft. This aligns well with latest 925mb mesoanalysis data, thus, carried some LLWS for the morning hours with this latest TAF issuance. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail. Southwesterly sfc winds will increase in a typical diurnal fashion today. Wind speeds predominantly around 10kts, with occasional gusts in the 15-20kt range. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 87 61 87 62 / 0 0 20 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 85 61 85 61 / 0 0 20 40 Oak Ridge, TN 86 59 85 60 / 0 0 30 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 83 57 83 59 / 0 0 10 40 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...99 AVIATION...KRS  527 FXUS64 KFWD 150649 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 149 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered storms are expected again this afternoon. There is a risk for strong to severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds in portions of North Texas. - A strong cold front will move through on Saturday, accompanied by scattered showers and storms. - Much cooler conditions will linger into early next week before temperatures begin to warm back up. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 143 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Overall, expect a temporary period of quieter weather as latest radar trends and high-resolution model guidance back away from much precipitation within North and Central Texas through this morning. Much of the lingering storms down near the Big Bend are expected to weaken and dissipate as they advance northeast into more stable air. We cannot rule out that some of the remnants from these storms make it further into North Texas near daybreak, allowing for some light morning rain, but this scenario is looking more unlikely. We will continue to carry a mention of PoPs for the northwestern half of the CWA through morning for this low potential. Otherwise, the next window of convective development will be over the afternoon into the evening as a shortwave disturbance moves across the Plains. Once again, scattered storms are expected to develop along the dryline to our west and move northeast late this afternoon. This activity will pose a threat for strong to severe storms in our northwestern counties, with the main threats of large hail and damaging winds. Low-level wind fields look to be unfavorable for much of a tornado threat this afternoon, however we'll keep an eye on this potential going through the rest of the day. Further east of the dryline towards the I-35 corridor, there remains the potential for scattered warm-sector showers and storms, though exact locations and coverage remain more uncertain. The severe threat is lower with this eastern activity, but any more robust storms that develop would carry a threat for hail and winds. Similar to days prior, convection will wane with the loss of daytime heating, though cannot rule out some lingering rain in our northeast going into Thursday morning as the shortwave moves past. The rest of the day Thursday will be warm, muggy, and mostly dry as upper-level ridging builds in between our departing shortwave and the parent trough to the west. Expect afternoon highs mainly in the mid-upper 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 143 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 The parent trough will continue to spread towards the Plains on Friday, shunting the ridge east and sending the system's attendant cold front south. Out ahead of the front, a deepening lee-side surface low will promote breezy conditions throughout the day Friday. The front is progged to move through North and Central Texas early Saturday, bringing breezy north winds and cooler temperatures to kick off the weekend. Enough moisture is expected to pool near and along the boundary to allow for scattered showers and storms as the front pushes south. The severe weather threat is fairly low overall at this time, however, steep lapse rates and enough present instability may promote a couple more robust storms capable of small hail and strong winds. The higher severe threat would remain generally to our north closer to the greatest lift from the system. Expect cooler conditions to persist into early next week. Model guidance continues to highlight the potential for additional rain chances early next week as a disturbance moves across the Southern Plains, but it is too early to hash out specifics. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 143 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 MVFR stratus is now making its way into Central Texas, and should blanket all of the TAF sites by 08-09Z. MVFR cigs will persist through much of the morning before gradually lifting back to VFR this afternoon, accompanied by breezy southerly winds. While the chances for daybreak showers continue to diminish, there will be a chance for scattered showers and perhaps a storm or two later this afternoon in portions of North and Central Texas, with the main timing generally between 20-01Z. There is still enough uncertainty and low probabilities with thunder potential to forego inclusion in the TAFs at this time, but this will need to be watched carefully today. Any precipitation in the vicinity will dissipate this evening. Another round of MVFR stratus is likely going into Thursday morning, and this has been added into the extended DFW TAF. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1232 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 80 68 87 67 / 50 30 0 0 Waco 81 67 85 66 / 50 30 0 0 Paris 79 65 83 65 / 50 50 10 0 Denton 79 65 86 65 / 50 20 0 10 McKinney 78 67 85 67 / 50 30 0 0 Dallas 81 67 87 68 / 50 30 0 0 Terrell 81 67 85 66 / 50 40 0 0 Corsicana 83 69 87 69 / 50 40 0 0 Temple 82 68 87 67 / 40 30 0 0 Mineral Wells 81 63 88 65 / 50 10 0 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Prater LONG TERM....Prater AVIATION...Prater  160 FXUS64 KMAF 150652 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 152 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 152 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Very low (10-15%) chance of isolated storms for the far eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos late this afternoon and early evening. Should a storm develop, large hail and damaging winds remain the primary threats. - Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected across southeast New Mexico, the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains, and portions of far west Texas through Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday afternoon) Issued at 152 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Current satellite imagery and latest 500mb RAP analysis shows an upper-level trough extending across the Rockies into the Desert Southwest. Strong southwesterly flow aloft persists over the region into this afternoon. As the trough moves further to the east, so does the dryline. This will keep most storm development east of the forecast area. Low (10-15%) storm chances still exist late this afternoon into the early evening across the far eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. Modest lapse rates, deep layer shear, and sufficient instability allows for the potential of a strong storm, should one develop. If one does develop, it will quickly move east away from the aforementioned areas. Breezy winds and very dry conditions prompt near-critical fire weather conditions across portions of southeast New Mexico, eastern Culberson County Plains, and the Guadalupe Mountains this afternoon. Other than that, high temperatures range from the upper 70s and 80s for most locations. Tonight, the aforementioned trough moves into the Upper Midwest creating quasi-zonal flow aloft. Subtle upper-level begins to take shape over the region by Thursday morning which is going to supply warmer temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s for most. Surface lee troughing develops once again over the region bringing breezy southwesterly winds. This again provides elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions across similar locations previously mentioned. Another upper-level storm system looks to impact the region by Friday heading into the weekend. See the long-term discussion for more details! Lamberson && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 152 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 An upper-level trough moves across the Central Rockies and into the Central Great Plains. Meanwhile, the dryline moves back west near the Texas/New Mexico border and extends south towards the Big Bend. In addition to these features surface troughing brings breezy conditions across much of the area (higher winds in the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains under the mid-level jet). Strong southwesterly downslope flow helps filter in drier air behind the dryline, increasing fire weather concerns (see Fire Weather Discussion for more details). Friday night into Saturday morning, a cold front sweeps through the area resulting in low (10-30%) chances of rain and cooler temperatures. Afternoon highs drop into the 70s for most on Saturday, with even cooler temperatures on Sunday due to increased cloud cover and easterly upslope flow well behind the front. In addition to the upslope flow, shortwave troughs embedded in southwest flow aloft brings additional chances (10-40%) of rain for areas mainly south of I-20. Long-range guidance depicts the return of weak ridging by early next week, signaling warmer temperatures after this weekend. Greening && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1139 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 TS has moved out of the area and will not affect any of the TAF sites for the next 24 hours. VFR conditions will remain. Light southerly winds increase and become gusty to 20-25KTS while veering from the west around 18Z. Hennig && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 152 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected the next few days, mainly over southeast New Mexico and into portions of west Texas. Critical MinRHs (generally below 10%) will combine with gusty winds and dry fuels. As such, a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement has been issued for portions of southeast New Mexico, the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains, and eastern Culberson County of west Texas from early this afternoon through the early evening. We are continuing to keep an eye on Friday as a deep upper-level trough enters the Great Plains. This is expected to bring stronger southwesterly winds which in turn keeps MinRHs in the single digits. Additionally, continued drying fuels raise RFTIs into the 6-8 range across much of southeast New Mexico and portions of northern Culberson County. This may result in critical to potentially extreme fire weather conditions on Friday for these areas. Should this forecast hold, a Red Flag Warning may be necessary. Friday night into Saturday, winds are forecast to shift northerly to northeasterly behind a cold front. As a result, cooler temperatures and thick cloud cover lowers fire weather concerns, though winds are expected to be breezy. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 87 56 89 64 / 0 0 10 20 Carlsbad 82 48 87 55 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 89 64 88 66 / 20 10 10 0 Fort Stockton 87 57 90 63 / 10 10 10 10 Guadalupe Pass 72 51 78 56 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 81 47 86 55 / 0 0 0 10 Marfa 77 46 83 50 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 85 57 88 64 / 0 0 0 20 Odessa 84 56 87 64 / 0 0 0 10 Wink 84 50 89 60 / 0 0 0 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....55 AVIATION...10  901 FXUS65 KMSO 150655 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 1255 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Today: Pass level snow, potential minor travel impacts. - A potent cold front drops snow levels to the valley floors tonight and Thursday, bringing the potential for sudden snow squalls in southwest Montana and travel impacts over mountain passes. - A brief warm up with drier weather is expected for the upcoming weekend before active weather returns. Today through Thursday: Moisture continues to stream overhead this morning, with the heaviest precipitation focused across north-central Idaho and northwest Montana. Snow levels currently range from 4,000 feet in northwest Montana to 6,000 feet in Lemhi County; consequently, impacts will remain primarily confined to the higher terrain. There is a high probability (60-80%) that Lookout, Marias, and Lolo passes will receive several inches of new snow. Slick and slushy roadways will remain near the to of the passes this morning, as areas just below pass levels are expected to remain mostly wet. A strong cold front will sweep across the region this afternoon and evening, bringing sustained pass-level snow and scattered valley showers. This front will trigger a burst of heavy precipitation and rapidly plunging snow levels, eventually reaching valley floors. - Localized High Impact Potential: Be prepared for sudden snow squalls as the front moves through southwest Montana this evening. These squalls can cause near-zero visibility and rapidly changing road conditions. Expect moderate travel impacts on all mountain passes through Thursday morning. Uncertainty Details: Significant uncertainty remains regarding valley snow accumulations. Current model guidance shows the deepest moisture arriving concurrently with the cold front, a setup that typically limits accumulation in the valleys; however, heavy localized bursts remain possible. Also, models have trended toward a weak backdoor front in Northwest Montana Thursday morning with an outside chance (20%) of 1-2 inches of snow for lower valley locations such as the Flathead Valley. Friday through Next Week: Showery conditions will persist through Friday as the trough exits the region, gradually tapering off late Friday. A ridge of high pressure will build this weekend, providing a brief but welcome return to warmer, drier weather. This break will be short- lived, however, as the next weather disturbance is projected to arrive by early next week. && .AVIATION...Moisture continues to stream into the Northern Rockies today, bringing periods of precipitation. While downsloping will limit intensity for western Montana valleys, light rain is expected at times. Breezy southwest winds will increase ahead of the front, with gusts of 20-30 kts. A strong cold front is timed to reach north-central Idaho by 15/1900Z, Missoula by 15/2300Z, and Butte by 16/0200Z. Expect a window of heavy precipitation and a sharp shift to northwest winds gusting 30-40 kts during passage. Snow levels ahead of the front will range from 4000 feet in northwest Montana to 6000 feet in Lemhi County, behind the front, snow levels will drop to all valley floors. Though post-frontal moisture is limited, scattered snow showers will continue across the Northern Rockies through Thursday. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Thursday for Butte/Blackfoot Region...Potomac/Seeley Lake Region. Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM MDT Thursday for Lower Clark Fork Region...West Glacier Region. Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM MDT Thursday for Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains. ID...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM MDT /5 PM PDT/ this evening to 9 AM MDT /8 AM PDT/ Thursday for Eastern Lemhi County... Northern Clearwater Mountains...Southern Clearwater Mountains...Western Lemhi County. && $$  098 FXUS63 KMQT 150656 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 256 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread fog, dense at times, leads to reduced visibility through the morning commute. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for the entire UP. - The threat for flooding continues through the week due to snowmelt and potential showers and thunderstorms. A Flood Watch is in effect for the entire U.P., ending Wednesday morning over the far west and Thursday night elsewhere. - Showers and storms may reach the central and eastern UP tonight into Thursday morning, with light totals below a quarter inch. - Showers and Thunderstorms are expected with a cold front Friday night into Saturday early morning. Widespread totals up to half an inch are becoming likely, but higher amounts are possible with a 10- 20% chance for totals in excess of an inch. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 255 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Earl this morning, a warm front remains draped across southern WI eastward through the central LP. Forcing along it has lead to more active weather across WI and the LP, but we remain well north of the excitement, up here on the cool side of the boundary. With plenty of low-level moisture courtesy of our melting snowpack and a sharp inversion, widespread fog is developing across the UP. This is dense at times, with several ASOS sites throughout the area reporting visibility well below a mile. Model soundings show limited chance of this mixing out even through sunrise, so the Dense Fog Advisory has been extended a couple of hours until 14Z. Heading into the daytime hours, once our fog mixes out, we should see some breaks of sunshine across the western UP Much like today temperatures will vary greatly across the U.P, with low 40s in the far north to the low 60s south, closer in proximity to the warm front. This, in combination with dewpoints in the 40s, will lead to increased snowmelt which in turn continues to pose a threat for flooding o rivers, small streams, creeks, and low-lying areas. Flood headlines remain intact. Another shortwave looks to ride along the boundary this evening into tonight, and though guidance increasingly limits PoPs to our south, with more of a glancing blow to the UP, some showers and storms still will not be ruled out across our area. This should leave us with rain totals of less than a quarter of an inch, with any isolated storms dropping higher amounts. A warmer stretch is expected for Thursday into Friday as a deep trough moves into the western U.S. Easterly winds will develop on Thursday, becoming southerly by Friday. This will bring the potential for some of the warmest temperatures thus far this spring, reaching into the 70s over the west (90% chance for temperatures over 70). The strengthening southerly winds, warm temperatures and higher dew points will accelerate the melting of the snowpack further with continued flooding concerns. More uncertainly exists for the weekend as the low pressure moves east along or north of Lake Superior. Slower solutions keep warmer air in the U.P. well into Saturday while faster solutions would bring a front through and much cooler temperatures by Saturday morning. Another round of rain and thunderstorms is likely to accompany the front. Behind the front it will be much cooler with snow showers possible Saturday night into Sunday. Some guidance still suggests a wet snowfall for the western U.P. NBM probabilities for 2" or more of wet snow in the west are around 20-40% Saturday night into Sunday. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 121 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Widespread LIFR/VLIFR conditions at all TAF sites well into the morning as widespread dense fog sets up over the region due to ample low level moisture and weak winds. Conditions lift to mvfr this afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 255 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Light, stable flow is expected through Thursday with a weak pressure gradient over the area. Dense fog remains over much of the lake through this moring, slowly mixing out during the afternoon before expanding again tonight. Southerly winds will develop and increase on Friday ahead of a deepening low pressure, 30% chance for gales over the eastern lake. This low will push through over the weekend bringing a cold front and the potential for northwesterly gales (around 50% chance Saturday night into Sunday). && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 255 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 NOHRSC analysis showed the the snowpack had eroded over much of the southern and far western U.P. Over the north and east several inches to over a foot of SWE remained, greatest in the higher terrain. Snowmelt will continue through the week and accelerate late in the week as a warm, moist airmass moves into the U.P. Additional rain chances continue, with a slight chance for showers/storms tonight and higher confidence in another wave of rain Friday night. Rainfall tonight will likely be less than a quarter inch but heavier rainfall is possible for Friday night. NBM has a 10-20% chance for an inch of more of rainfall Friday night. Colder weather is expected for Saturday night and Sunday which should slow the melt of any remaining snow. Flooding in the wake of snowmelt and multiple heavy rain events continued over the south-central U.P. Tuesday. Though the snowpack is mostly gone in the south-central; swamps, creeks, low lying areas and rivers remain full/high and additional showers and thunderstorms are possible tonight. This could exacerbate the ongoing flooding though widespread heavy rainfall is not expected. For the north and east snowmelt and potential rainfall will continue the flooding threat though the week with the analysis and observations showing over a foot of SWE in the higher terrain. Rivers in the far western U.P. were beginning to fall and anticipate that the Flood Watch will be able to expire this morning. The Flood Watch remains in effect for all but the far western U.P. until Thursday night. This may need to be extended further in time with future updates as even warmer temperatures and higher dew points, along with increasing winds are expected for Thursday and Friday. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Flood Watch through late Thursday night for MIZ001-003>007- 010>014-084-085. Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ this morning for MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085. Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ this morning for MIZ002- 009. Lake Superior... Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning for LSZ162-240>251-263>267. Lake Michigan... Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for LMZ221-248- 250. && $$ DISCUSSION...LC/NL AVIATION...TDUD MARINE...LC/NL HYDROLOGY...