442 FXUS64 KOUN 150703 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 203 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 149 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Strong to severe thunderstorms possible Wednesday and Friday. - Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions will return several days this week, especially across portions of northwestern and far western Oklahoma. - Dry and cooler weather this weekend. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Wednesday) Issued at 149 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Early this morning, a few elevated showers and thunderstorms are moving across southwestern and central Oklahoma. This activity may produce small hail, brief heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds. A few global models continue develop more widespread showers and thunderstorms across parts of south central and southeastern Oklahoma before sunrise, while CAMs keep coverage isolated to widely scattered. Ceiling heights across south central and southeastern Oklahoma are roughly 4-6k feet and soundings suggest about 1000 J/kg of elevated CAPE. For now will side with more isolated to widely scattered coverage through sunrise. Later this afternoon, at least scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along a near a dryline. The dryline will be located farther east than Tuesday, so perhaps initial storm develop will be along and east of an Enid to Lawton and Seymour, Texas line. It's possible that upscale growth will occur quickly to an MCS or line segments. This would limit the large hail risk to the first few hours of development with an evolution to strong winds, smaller hail, and heavy rainfall. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday night through Friday night) Issued at 149 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A trailing shortwave trough is expected to move across the Panhandles and western Oklahoma late Wednesday evening into early Thursday morning. Although a majority of the convection will be confined to the eastern third of Oklahoma by late Wednesday evening, some lingering precipitation is possible. With mainly dry conditions expected on Thursday, focus will turn to fire weather conditions across western Oklahoma during the afternoon. Temperatures will be very warm to hot, and afternoon humidity will fall to around 10 to 15 percent across the western third of the state including the adjacent area of northern Texas. A southwesterly wind will be a little breezy but wind gusts are expected to be in the 25-30 mph range. Thursday evening and overnight, a shortwave trough will approach in southwesterly flow aloft. This may result widely scattered showers and perhaps thunderstorms. Most of this activity should be northeast of the area by mid to late morning. By mid afternoon Friday, a dryline is expected to sharpen across western Oklahoma, as an upper trough approaches the northern and central Plains. With mid to upper 60s dewpoint in place, instability will increase to around 3000 J/kg. So if a few storms develop along the dry, supercells are likely with a risk of very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes. By early to mid evening, a strong cold front will begin to move across parts of western and northern Oklahoma. Thunderstorms will likely develop along the front with a risk of damaging winds and hail. The surface cold front will clear southeastern Oklahoma by early Saturday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 149 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Northerly winds behind a cold front will continue to usher in a much drier airmass on Saturday. An elevated frontal boundary across south central and southeastern Oklahoma may result in scattered showers through the late morning/early afternoon. With portions of western Oklahoma missing out on the recent rainfall, elevated fire weather conditions will be possible Saturday afternoon, especially across northwestern Oklahoma where fuels remain receptive to fire. With a clear sky expected and light winds, portions of northern and western Oklahoma may see a light freeze by sunrise Sunday. Currently, forecast temperatures are in the mid 30s, but certainly would not be surprised to see some upper 20s to lower 30s. After a cold start Sunday, temperatures will warm into the lower and mid 70s by afternoon. The wind will become a little breezy across western Oklahoma, so maybe a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions during the afternoon. A low amplitude shortwave trough will move across Texas late Sunday into Monday. This may result in a few showers and storms mainly across southern Oklahoma and northern Texas late Sunday into Monday. On Tuesday, a breezy southerly wind is expected with modest moisture return. Rain and storm chances will remain around 10 percent during the day. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1019 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR/MVFR ceilings expected this TAF period. Area of showers/storms currently ongoing is expected to continue to move east and be east of most, if not all, TAF sites by 06Z. The exception could be KDUA if this activity develops further south. There is a chance for additional isolated/scattered showers/storms to develop overnight into Wednesday morning but too difficult to tell if this will affect any TAF sites. However, will take another look at current radar trends before sending TAFs. Another round of storms, some of which could be severe, will be possible Wednesday afternoon/evening with chances at all TAF sites, except for maybe KWWR. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 81 59 86 65 / 70 30 0 10 Hobart OK 86 53 90 62 / 40 10 0 10 Wichita Falls TX 85 61 91 65 / 60 10 0 10 Gage OK 83 47 89 60 / 10 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 82 56 85 64 / 60 40 0 0 Durant OK 78 64 86 66 / 80 50 10 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...06 SHORT TERM...06 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...25  079 FXUS66 KEKA 150705 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 1205 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Rain through Wednesday, especially for the North Coast. Near freezing to freezing low temperatures expected to return late week. More rain possible late weekend. && .DISCUSSION...Rain is making its way southward along the Pacific Coast. A rainy morning is expected for the North Coast with a period of moderate rainfall around midday as a frontal boundary passes overhead. Rain totals are expected to be around 1.00" for Del Norte Co. and slightly less for Humboldt Co. Lighter precipitation is forecasted for Trinity and Northern Mendocino Co. Trace amounts of rain (<0.10") expected for Lake and southern Mendocino Co. Strong southerly winds will develop along the North Coast before this frontal boundary passing. After this frontal boundary in Lake Co., while there might not be much in terms of rainfall, strong winds are forecasted to develop, especially for the higher terrain. This cold front will advect much colder air over the region. Snow levels drop in response down to ~1,500ft for Trinity Co. and ~2,00ft for Humboldt Co. This drop is not expected to create much snow as much of the precipitation will be over by this time. What this colder air will do is increase the likelihood for frost/freeze conditions for the entire area on Thursday and Friday. NBM data shows the interior valleys are forecasted to get colder than 30F Thursday and Friday mornings. As growing season begins, it is recommended to cover sensitive plants and take other precautions to protect agricultural property these mornings. The GFS and ECMWF are both signaling for another frontal storm arriving this weekend. The GFS ensemble shows light rain Sunday with heavier rain possible on Monday. The EPS shows almost the same, with rainbeginning on Saturday evening. What these models also show is more widespread rainfall over the area with precipitation accumulations up to0.50" in Lake and southern Mendocino counties. DS && .AVIATION...A cold front will swoop across the area on Wednesday bringing MVFR and occasional IFR cigs and vsby's in light to moderate rain. Initially southerly and southeasterly winds in advance of the front will maintain mostly MVFR conditions. Conditions will initially deteriorate at KCEC with reduced vsby in rain and S-SW gusts to around 30 kt. IFR conditions will then spread southward to KACV by 16Z with about a 30% chance of vsby from 1 to 2SM and IFR cigs in light to moderate rain. A push of moist and gusty NW winds behind the front will keep the threat for IFR conditions and light rain going into the afternoon hours. For UKI, generally VFR is expected with bountiful cloud cover and gusty afternoon and evening N-NW winds. Surface wind decouples late in the evening on Wed and potential for low level wind shear will increase as robust N-NE wind flow develops 1000-2500 AGL. && .MARINE...A vigorous cold frontal boundary will move across the coastal waters on Wed. Southerly and southwest winds with gusts to 25-30 kt will develop early in the morning and then rapidly shift around to N and NW behind the front in the late morning and early afternoon across the northern waters. Widespread seas building to 6 feet or higher are limited on Wed. There are indications from the NWPS model of localized pockets of steep waves from 6 to 8 feet mostly north of Trinidad by early afternoon for the inner and outer waters. Therefore an advisory has been issued even with limited areal coverage of steep wave over 6 ft. An advisory based on wind gusts from 25 to 30 kt appears more solid, but errors in the wind gust forecast could be as much 10 kt. Just about all the mesoscale models have gusts over 21 kt over a sufficiently large enough area to warrant an advisory for small craft. Northerly winds strengthen and steep wave build Wed evening and overnight, especially south of Cape Mendo. Thus, an advisory has been posted for the inner waters south of Cape Mendo. Gale force winds will be possible (30% chance) as early as Wed evening. Greater coverage and longer duration of gale gusts holds off til Thu afternoon and evening - per the HREF. Thus a gale watch has been hoisted for the southern waters. Seas will build to max heights Thu afternoon thru Thu night. Steep waves are projected to reach 11-13 feet for the southern waters and 9-11 feet in the northern waters. Seas may remain steep and elevated on Fri, however a downward trend will commence and continue into Sat. Another front will approach over the weekend and could bring another bout of gusty winds. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ450. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 2 PM PDT Thursday for PZZ455. Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night for PZZ455. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ470. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ475. Gale Watch from late tonight through late Thursday night for PZZ475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png  114 FXUS61 KILN 150706 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 306 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, primarily across West Central Ohio. 2) Well above normal temperatures are expected through the rest of the week. Shower and thunderstorm chances continue. Strong cold front moves through this weekend, bringing cooler temperatures Sunday and Monday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1) Amplified mid level flow with s large ridge centered over the southeast CONUS. Active weather pattern as disturbances track around the periphery of this ridge. Strong storms currently tracking thru the Southern Great Lakes associated with an embedded disturbance. A few storms from this system may build south and clip ILN/s northern counties this morning. These storms should be weaker in ILN/s area and elevated and are not expected to pose a widespread severe threat. Focus shifts to strong to severe weather threat this afternoon and early evening. Additional storms are expected to develop in the warm sector with moderate instability with MLCAPE values of 1250-1500 J/KG. Mid level winds of 40-50 KTS will continue to rotate around the periphery of the ridge. Thunderstorm development will likely occur along outflow boundaries in the warm sector with CAM solutions showing convective bands tracking thru the northern half of ILN/s area thru early evening. Exact placement and timing of these bands remains uncertain. ML guidance aligns with the area along and north of I-70, will highlight this threat in HWO. The most favored time between 3 pm and 10 pm and the main threats are damaging winds and large hail. KEY MESSAGE 2) Anomalously warm conditions to continue thru the the remainder of the week and into the first part of this weekend. High temperatures look to run 15 to 20 degrees above normal. Normal high temperatures are in the middle 60s and highs in the upper 70s and 80s will be common. A shortwave tracking the the area Thursday will lead to a good chance for thunderstorms. Limited instability may inhibit widespread severe weather. However, locally strong gusts and marginal hail will be possible. Mid level ridging looks to inhibit convection Friday with highs from the upper 70s to the lower 80s. The warm stretch ends this weekend as a strong cold front shifts east through the middle Ohio Valley late Saturday. CAA and gusty westerly winds are likely Sunday with high temperatures from the lower and middle 50s to around 60. Low temperatures Sunday night dip into the 30s as the surface high moves into our area. Frost may be a concern Sunday night and Monday morning. Cool temperatures continue Monday with high from the mid 50s to the lower 60s. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions expected this morning into the afternoon. A thunderstorm complex is currently moving thru the Southern Great Lakes. A few showers or weakening storms from this complex could move into Central Ohio early this morning, but confidence of impacting the TAF/s is too low to include in forecast at this point. Additional thunderstorms development is expected later this afternoon into this evening. The best coverage of storms looks to occur along and north of the I-70 corridor. Have handled this threat with prob30 at the KDAY, KCMH and KLCK TAF sites. Can not rule out isold to scattered storms farther south but anticipated coverage is too low to mention in the forecast at this time. Low level wind shear will occur across the region thru 11Z. Southwest surface winds will gust up to 25 kts this afternoon. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible at times through Thursday, then again Saturday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AR AVIATION...AR  486 FXUS62 KTBW 150708 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 308 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Critical RH values across the region the next few days. - Above average temperatures continue through the week. - Moderate to extreme drought conditions continue. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 306 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 The synoptic pattern will remain relatively unchanged through the week and into the weekend producing rain-free conditions and above average temperatures. Persistent upper ridging extending over Florida as well as surface high pressure near Bermuda ridging west- southwestward over Florida and into the eastern Gulf waters will continue to dominate the weather pattern. PWAT values will remain below 1 inch through the week and into the weekend resulting in rain- free conditions and well above average temperatures through the week. Moisture will slightly increase on Sunday ahead of a weak front expected to move through on Monday. Rain chances will remain on the low side (10-20 percent) on Monday and Tuesday next week. Daytime highs will top out in the mid to upper 80s through Thursday, then reaching the 90s in some areas late week and into the weekend. Mild overnight lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s expected through the forecast period. Slightly cooler temperatures closer to average expected for the first part of next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 306 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR and rain-free conditions along with winds less than 10 knots will prevail through the forecast period. && .MARINE... Issued at 306 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 High pressure near Bermuda ridges across Florida and into the eastern Gulf waters keeping a persistent east-southeast wind flow 15 knots or less over the region through the week and into the weekend. Winds will turn onshore during the afternoon/evening as the sea breeze sets up. This high pressure will also keep rain-free conditions over the Gulf waters through the end of the week and into the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 306 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 High pressure ridging over the area will keep rain-free conditions over the area through the week. Some critical RH values below 35 percent expected during the week, but light winds below 15 mph will preclude the need for any Red Flag Warnings. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 87 65 87 66 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 87 62 88 65 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 87 60 88 63 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 85 64 85 64 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 89 55 88 57 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 86 68 86 69 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Wynn  235 FXUS66 KMTR 150717 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1217 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1214 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Near normal temperatures continue today and Thursday before temperatures warm Friday into the weekend - Periods of gusty offshore winds, especially at higher elevations, Wednesday afternoon through early Friday morning - Increasing confidence for widespread beneficial rain beginning Sunday into the beginning of next week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1214 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 (Today and tonight) A weak fetch of onshore flow at the surface is struggling to maintain patches of low stratus along the SF Peninsula and the Salinas Valley late tonight. Progressive ridging aloft has resulted in very dry air in the mid/upper levels, that will persist into the early afternoon. A sharpening trough to our north will reach the North Bay tonight behind the exiting ridge, with a weak associated moisture gradient out ahead. However, increasing low and mid-level onshore flow will result in a moderate increase in cloud cover this afternoon. Breezy west winds out ahead of the dry surface boundary will eventually become northerly overnight as the upper trough pivots east and south. Temperatures today will be similar to yesterday, maybe a few degrees warmer inland where less cloud cover is expected. Temperatures tonight will still be on the cool side across the North Bay and higher elevations across the East Bay Hills with weak cool advection behind the dry surface boundary late tonight. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1214 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 (Thursday through Tuesday) Gusty offshore flow will gradually spread south across our area after sunrise Thursday. The strongest winds will be at higher elevations, especially in the North Bay and East Bay Hills, but not expected to exceed 40mph. Temperatures on Thursday will be similar to Wednesday, right around normal in the 60s to low 70s. Temperatures overnight Thursday into Friday will be chilly once again with cooler air aloft lingering behind the exiting trough and surface wind fields easing simultaneously under clear skies leading to efficient radiational cooling. Thursday night should be an excellent night for star gazing. Progressive, yet high amplitude ridging bumps temperatures up Friday and Saturday, before the next trough arrives from the Pacific Northwest on Sunday. Consensus diverged in deterministic guidance from this time last night, thus confidence in timing, location and intensity of rainfall is still low. However, it still looks most of our area will see at least some light rain Sunday through Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 940 PM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 High clouds associated with a cold front over far northern California will start to spill over the Bay Area and Central Coast tonight. Under these pre-frontal clouds, there will be another round of marine layer stratus impacts before the actual surface front moves through Wednesday night. Vicinity of SFO...There is a 20-30% chance for MVFR ceilings through 18Z Wednesday before the low clouds start mixing out. If ceilings form they will likely be transient and temporary through the first 12 hours of the TAF. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...With a better exposure to the ocean, the southern terminals have the best chance for MVFR ceilings early Wednesday morning. Despite this, there is very little chance for them to drop below 1,000 feet due to the deep, ragged marine layer. && .MARINE... (Today through Monday) Issued at 1214 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 High pressure over the NE Pacific will continue to support a fresh NW breeze and moderate seas over the coastal waters through Wednesday afternoon. A mostly dry cold front will push through Wednesday night, followed by a push of strong to near gale force NW'rlys Thursday. These winds will build rough seas of 10-12 feet across the exposed coastal waters. Winds will ease back to a moderate NW breeze Fri-Sat, allowing seas to gradually subside. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT early this morning for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM....JM AVIATION...Flynn MARINE...Flynn Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  308 FXUS62 KFFC 150717 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 317 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...Morning Area Forecast Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 311 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - A Fire Danger Statement is in effect across north Georgia and portions of central Georgia this afternoon. Fire weather concerns will persist this week given the ongoing very dry and warm conditions. - Temperatures will remain well above normal through Saturday. Some daily record highs may be broken. - Rain chances will increase this weekend, but appreciable rainfall is very unlikely, so worsening drought conditions are expected. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 311 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A high pressure regime will maintain its grip over the region today and Thursday. Mid and upper level ridging remains in place over the Southeast, extending from central Gulf towards the Mid-Atlantic. Surface high pressure underneath is also centered over the western Atlantic. Persistent southwesterly low level flow on the back side of the high continues to bring warm air from the Gulf into central and north Georgia. Low temperatures this morning are expected to be in the mid 50s to low 60s across the forecast area. High temperatures this afternoon will be well above normal underneath mostly clear skies, rising to between 10-16 degrees above daily averages and even approaching daily records at the four main climate sites (ATL, AHN, MCN, and CSG), rising into the mid 80s to low 90s. Minimum RH values this afternoon will drop to the 25-30% range. With very dry fuels and drought conditions, another Fire Danger Statement has been issued for portions of north Georgia and east-central Georgia. Winds will remain below Red Flag thresholds today. On Thursday, the ridge axis and the surface high will shift further to the east. Both low and high temperatures will remain similar, with record high temperatures possible once again in the afternoon. A shortwave trough will move across the Great Lakes over the course of the day, with an associated frontal boundary moving across the Tennessee Valley. With the ridge stretching more to the east, it is possible that isolated showers and possibly a thunderstorm could spread into far north Georgia. Slight chance PoPs have been introduced in the northern row of counties late Thursday afternoon into the beginning of the long term period. The frontal boundary is forecast to weaken as it continues south, stalling before reaching the Tennessee/Georgia border as it encounters the ridge. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 311 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Staying Warm and Dry through Saturday: Ensemble guidance generally agrees on the passage of a shortwave trough across the Ohio River Valley and Mid-Atlantic Thursday night into Friday afternoon. Little (if any) rainfall is expected with this feature, as guidance depicts the attendant moisture scouring out as it encounters the ridging in place (plus a lack of appreciable moisture return ahead of the shortwave across the County Warning Area). Very similar to the previous several forecast packages, the National Blend of Models (NBM) brushes far north Georgia with 15% to 20% rain chances on Thursday night. High temperatures are forecast to reach the upper 80s to mid-90s on Friday and Saturday. Better Rain Chances and a Cold Front on Sunday: Ensemble guidance is also in general agreement on a stout longwave trough swinging across the eastern CONUS late Saturday through late Sunday. The low pressure system associated with this feature will drive moisture advection across the Southeast, with precipitable water (PWAT) peaking around the 75th to 90th percentile for this time of year. The cold front associated with this system is expected to support showers and possibly thunderstorms across parts of north and central Georgia late Saturday through Sunday morning. That said, whatever rainfall occurs with this weekend system will very likely not be nearly enough to put a dent in the drought conditions. The cold front will bring a noticeable cool-down Sunday and Monday, although model spread is decently high regarding temperatures on Sunday given the frontal passage. Monday morning lows could be as chilly as the upper 30s and lower 40s, with Monday afternoon highs in the 70s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 124 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions will persist through the period, with FEW cu between 050-070 anticipated in the afternoon. Winds will be light and variable through the early morning, becoming SW at 4-8 kts by 15Z. Winds will diminish after sunset, becoming light and variable once again after 01-02Z. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... High confidence on all elements. King && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 87 61 87 62 / 0 0 0 0 Atlanta 86 62 86 63 / 0 0 0 0 Blairsville 83 56 83 57 / 0 0 0 10 Cartersville 87 60 87 60 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 88 60 87 61 / 0 0 0 0 Gainesville 86 62 86 63 / 0 0 0 0 Macon 88 60 88 61 / 0 0 0 0 Rome 88 58 87 59 / 0 0 10 10 Peachtree City 87 60 86 60 / 0 0 0 0 Vidalia 91 61 92 62 / 0 0 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...King LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...King  126 FXUS63 KIND 150719 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 319 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Active pattern this week with near daily chances for showers and storms. Friday likely to be the driest day of the week. - A few rounds of storms expected this afternoon into tonight across Central and North Central Indiana. A few storms may be severe with damaging winds as the main threat. - Near record warm temperatures expected through Saturday with multiple days in the 80s and lows in the 60s. - Much cooler Sunday into early next week with the potential for frost. && .DISCUSSION (Today through Tuesday)... Issued at 319 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 An active weather pattern continues for the region this week with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms forecast to move through Central Indiana. Nearly the same synoptic set up is over the Great Lakes and Midwest as the past several days as a strong southwesterly baroclinc zone has set up from the Plains into the Great Lakes. This semi-blocking pattern will remain in place through the week with the most active period for Central Indiana tomorrow afternoon through early Thursday then again on Saturday. The pattern features a modest 80-90 kt southwesterly upper jet extending from West Texas to the Great Lakes with several embedded shortwaves. Underneath the baroclinic zone, these embedded shortwaves have kept an elongated surface low/boundary from the Texas Panhandle through Wisconsin, placing Central Indiana well within the overall warm sector. A strong nocturnal low level jet (LLJ) redevelops each night over Indiana, feeding the multiple complexes of storms riding around the periphery of the overall system. Based on where Indiana is located within the warm sector, the best forcing for ascent and storm complexes remains closer to the synoptic features to the north and west. However as these overnight MCSs die, their leftover outflow boundaries sag southward into Central Indiana. This exact scenario occurred yesterday with afternoon storms developing along these remnant boundaries. CAMs guidance does not do well in these weakly forced set ups with remnant outflow boundaries; therefore, much of the short term forecast will be based off persistence, observations, and how everything evolves upstream. The short term forecast will be lower confidence than usual regarding exact placement and timing of waves of convective development this afternoon into Thursday. But high confidence remains in the overall pattern and associated thunderstorm threats. Today and tonight... Latest satellite imagery shows a large MCS over Michigan and far Northern Indiana currently, progressing east along the warm front, while an additional complex of storms develops over Iowa and Northern Illinois closer to the elongated surface low and cold front. An upper wave along the front range of the Rockies will work to shift this entire system and baroclinic zone eastward over the next 24 hours, placing the area of best forcing for ascent and the storm track closer to Indiana with several rounds of storms expected to impact the region. Mainly dry conditions should persist for Central Indiana for the rest of the morning and early afternoon hours as dry air and subsidence on the south side of these MCSs keep convection out of the area. However for later this afternoon and evening, keeping an eye on what happens with the remnant outflow boundary from the current MCS in Northern Indiana and how it interacts with a mid level shortwave in the Arklatex region moving northeast toward the Ohio Valley. This wave should provide the necessary forcing for convection development this afternoon in Illinois and Indiana along remnant boundaries in the warm sector. Unfortunately, it is difficult to determine where exactly these boundaries will set up at the moment. Current thinking is that areas along and north of I-70 have the best storm threat after 17z this afternoon. The environment will be more than conducive for severe weather as elongated hodographs within an unstable airmass suggest. Weak mid and upper lapse rates may limit the overall hail threat today, but high DCAPE values, and steep low level lapse rates with 30-40 kts of effective shear should be enough to support organized severe storms with a damaging wind threat with isolated tornadoes. Expect multiple rounds of convection going into tonight as the overall storm system begins to shift east. The threat for severe weather during the overnight hours should be more synoptically driven as surface wave moves northeast into the Great Lakes with a trailing front in Indiana. The increasing low level jet overhead ahead of the approaching system will work to increase overnight rounds of storms to the west/southwest which move into Central Indiana. The environment overnight will also be conducive for surface based severe weather within such a moist and unstable environment with increasing wind shear. The main threat going into tonight should still be damaging winds as largely unidirectional flow and speed shear support upscale growth of complexes into lines and bowing segments. Thursday through This Weekend... Ridging briefly builds in on Thursday as the overall system shifts eastward...however another broad southwesterly baroclinic zone quickly sets up over the Plains again with surface cyclogenesis occurring over the upper Midwest. This will place Indiana and much of the region back into a hot and humid pattern within the warm sector of the developing low. Expect a drying trend Thursday as ridging builds in. Little to no cold air on the backside of the front means another above average day with highs well into the 70s, but with slightly lower humidity values due to subsidence under the ridge and dry air mixing down. As a strong warm sector becomes established on Friday over the Plains and Midwest, Indiana will have one full day of dry and very warm weather before the next threat for storms arrives on Saturday. Models show that the surface low with this system will be unphased and tracking ahead of its upper component. This will potentially make Saturday's system more diurnally driven rather than synoptically forced. At this time, strong deep layer flow will be parallel to the cold front which could be enough to form a line of storms with damaging winds being the main concern. Outside of storms, stronger gusts are likely Saturday and into Sunday since the elevated portion of the system will be lagging behind. General gusts Saturday could reach as high as 35-40 mph and around 25 mph on Sunday. There are still some differences on when the associated cold front would exit, but likely sometime late Saturday into the overnight hours, behind which cooler and below normal temperatures will return at least for the first couple of days of the new week. Lows Monday morning could be approaching near freezing to mid-30s. Surface high pressure behind the front looks to track over the Ohio Valley, allowing for dry weather for the start of the new week as well. && .AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 150 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Impacts: - Mainly SSW winds through the TAF period, gusting to 17-25KT - Non-zero chances of additional convection this evening - Multiple rounds of convection 17z Wed - 12z Thu Discussion: Mainly VFR conditions will prevail across central Indiana this evening as satellite imagery shows most of the convective activity in the region well to the west or north. The region remains well within the warm sector of an area of low pressure to the northwest. Waves of energy within the SW flow aloft interacting with leftover boundaries will likely be the focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon into tonight. Mainly VFR cigs and vis outside of storms for the majority of the period. After 17z, widely scatter storms should begin forming along leftover boundaries. Low confidence in exactly where these boundaries set up, however thinking the set up and evolution will be very similar to Tuesday where the greatest threat is along and north of I-70. Kept Prob30 groups for TSRA after 17z at KLAF, KIND, and KHUF where the greatest threat is. Will be able to fine tune exact timing in later forecast issuances once boundaries set up. Brief periods of MVFR or worse conditions with erratic wind speeds and directions under any storm. With numerous waves of showers and storms expected to move through the area, keeping the threat for storms through the end of the TAF period. Outside of storms, breezy, south-southwest flow to prevail through the period, with slight changes in direction possible, especially near any showers. Took out any mention of LLWS overnight through the early morning hours as the boundary layer is remaining well mixed according to obs and local ACARS soundings. Wind gusts of 15-25 kts should prevail through the period. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ AVIATION...CM DISCUSSION...CM  924 FXUS65 KBYZ 150724 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 124 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Storm system Tonight into Friday: Widespread rain transitioning to snow over the lower elevations Thursday. Uncertainty in snow totals for the foothills and lower elevations remains. - Moderate to heavy snow for all mountains. - Warmer and Dry this Weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Through Tuesday... There is still a decent amount of model discrepancies around the trough moving ashore off of the Pacific. Most models are showing some type of split to the feature, however, how much split remains the question. Some runs show a true split where there is one upper level low in SK and another along the WY/CO border. Other runs are showing more of an elongated area of vorticity between SK and WY which would give more forcing to our CWA. Today will still have high temperatures above average for a good portion of the region as the precipitation is not forecast to move into the CWA in ernest until early evening west of Billings and overnight farther east. Widespread 60s are forecast with some locations near and just east of Billings potentially touching 70F. In addition to the warm temperatures, some gusty winds in the low 50 mph range are possible around Livingston and Big Timber. While the low levels will be well mixed ahead of the trough, the 700mb winds only reach the 40 kt range in most models. That being said, a stray gust up to 60 mph cannot be ruled out due to terrain enhancement, however, there is a low chance (30%). With the energy advecting into western MT by 00z this evening showers are forecast to start over western portions of the CWA between noon and 6pm MDT today with some snow starting in the Absaroka/Beartooths a little earlier. Rain will gradually spread eastwards overnight. While there is still some disagreement regarding the FROPA Thursday, there is a better consensus now that it will enter the CWA sometime early Thursday AM and reach Billings before noon. The models lagging the most push the front through Miles City and Sheridan by early afternoon. Behind the cold front temperatures are expected to fall rapidly. Highs for the Thursday and Friday are forecast to be 10 F below average across the region. With these rapidly cooling temps, snow levels will also quickly descend. Although the front arrival is earlier, so is the exit of the precip. This means that there has not been too much meaningful change in snowfall or precip totals with the highest amounts still closest to mountains. The biggest question with the Thursday evening period is the surface wind direction. Some models want to bring in more of a north-northeast wind a few hours after the FROPA which would be good upslope enhancement for all of the typical sites. Other model runs keep the winds primarily out of the NW. This is the main reason for such wide ranges of potential snowfall in the foothills. Livingtson's 10-90th is 1-6", Red Loge 1-11" and Story, WY 3-12". Unfortunately, it will likely not be until right when the winds are forecast to potentially flip before we have a true grasp on whether or not meaningful upslope will occur. Due to this, if you have interests in the foothills or plan to travel along I-90 through Livingston, MT or Sheridan, WY Thursday and Friday, be sure to pay close attention to the weather. There is now some hints of a potential mountain wave into the Red Lodge area early Thursday morning just before the cold front pushes through. Winds in the 700-500mb layer will be out of the SW between 50-70kts. While all models show some subsidence, the GFS is the most bullish. As with all mountain wave events there is a high degree of uncertainty, however, there is the possibility for some strong winds Thursday into Red Lodge and surrounding areas. As for the east side of the Bighorns (Dayton, WY) there is a small chance (20%) that some mountain wave activity occurs prior to sunrise Thursday but the 700mb wind direction may be too southwesterly. The good news for folks with outdoor plans this weekend is that we have a warm and dry weekend in store. Behind the trough, ridging quickly builds in which will allow temps to rebound to near average Saturday and above average again by Sunday. Most of the Region will be feeling temps in the mid to upper 60s again by Sunday afternoon. It is worth noting that if we are able to accumulate a decent amount of snow in the foothills then all of this snow will rapidly melt this weekend. Moving into the start of next week there is another chance for more precipitation and cooler weather. In fact, the active pattern is expected to persist through much of the rest of the month. WMR .AVIATION... While winds may decrease near KLVM into the morning, look for gusty southwest to west winds to increase once again today. These gusty winds will also impact K6S0 and KHWQ during the day today. Late today into Thursday, a cold front is expected to move through the area. Ahead of this front, isolated to scattered showers are forecast over and near the mountains of south-central and western Montana this afternoon and evening. A few weak thunderstorms are possible over the west (20% chance) during the afternoon and evening. As the cold front brings widespread rain/snow into Thursday, conditions will deteriorate towards MVFR to IFR. Mountain obscurations will increase this afternoon into tonight over the west. STP && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 068 038/046 025/047 027/059 035/069 042/075 043/076 1/E 58/W 34/J 20/U 00/U 01/B 12/W LVM 060 029/038 020/041 022/055 030/064 037/070 040/071 5/W 99/J 57/J 30/U 00/U 01/B 12/W HDN 071 038/048 025/049 024/059 028/070 037/077 043/077 1/B 48/W 44/J 21/U 00/U 01/U 11/U MLS 070 040/049 023/043 022/054 028/067 039/075 043/074 1/B 34/W 31/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/U 4BQ 069 041/053 024/042 019/052 028/066 038/074 043/074 0/U 14/W 62/J 11/U 00/U 00/U 01/U BHK 069 038/054 022/039 018/049 025/064 036/071 040/070 0/U 12/W 52/J 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U SHR 067 034/047 021/039 019/050 025/064 034/072 038/073 0/B 29/W 86/J 31/U 00/U 00/B 12/W && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Winter Storm Warning in effect from noon today to 6 AM MDT Friday FOR ZONES 67-68. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings  441 FXUS61 KBOX 150728 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 328 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated marine section. General forecast trends remain consistent. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Summer-like warmth continues today away from the coast while a backdoor front brings cooler temperatures to parts of eastern MA. - Showers and storms possible again this afternoon and evening. - Milder temperatures in western MA/CT, cooler in eastern MA/RI Thursday-Saturday. Periods of showers and storms Friday. - Strong cold front Sunday ushers in cooler temperatures for early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Summer-like warmth continues today away from the coast while a backdoor front brings cooler temperatures to parts of eastern MA. The unseasonably warm airmass continues to sit over southern New England today, with 925 mb temperatures ranging from 15C to as high as 21C over CT. Generally, highs once again will likely reach the low to mid 80s over parts of the interior, particularly western MA into CT. For eastern MA and possibly even SE MA though, a backdoor front is expected to move into the region sometime this afternoon, keeping highs near the coast in the 60s with spots on the Cape and far NE MA only in the upper 50s. Cloud cover is also expected to be persistent closer to the coasts, with generally partly cloudy skies further into the interior. The greatest uncertainty with today's temperatures lies with how far inland the backdoor front might push today. There is a chance that more inland parts of SE MA into RI may reach the low 80s today if the front moves in later in the afternoon, but if it ends up being more progressive earlier in the afternoon, highs may be capped moreso in the low 70s. The closer to the front itself, the more uncertainty there will be with temperatures. KEY MESSAGE 2...Showers and storms possible again this afternoon and evening. A weak shortwave approaches the region today as well, which will aid in the development of more showers and thunderstorms, particularly late afternoon and evening. Latest forecast soundings still have 0-6 km shear values greater than 40 knots, particularly in the RAP guidance. The latest HREF even has some members drawing out some helicity swaths around parts of western MA. MLCAPE values between 500-1100 J/kg around 4 PM this evening out in western MA with the combination of the stronger shear and very little CIN would be favorable for thunderstorm development that could even turn severe, however, mid-level lapse rates are quite weak. Anything that develops in the afternoon/evening hours would likely be quite limited in coverage before becoming more concentrated over CT, RI, and the south coast heading into the overnight period. KEY MESSAGE 3...Milder temperatures in western MA/CT, cooler in eastern MA/RI Thursday-Saturday. Periods of showers and storms Friday. The unseasonably warm temperatures aloft persist heading into the latter half of the week, and another shortwave (which appears to be a bit more potent) approaches late Thursday night. With this disturbance moving through, more rain showers can be expected especially for Friday. The continued cloud cover then combined with the showery/stormy conditions should also limit temperatures to being more in the mid 60s to low 70s for much of the region, with mid 70s still possible out in the CT River Valley. Low pressure to the south of the region will also help usher in the return of onshore flow over southern New England Saturday, which will really moderate temperatures; highs for Saturday may only reach the mid 50s near the immediate eastern coastline and the 60s over the interior. 925 mb temperatures Saturday fall to around 10C with this pattern. The backdoor frontal boundary lingers in the area through this 3-day period as well, so temperatures may change significantly depending on how far south the front slides in Thursday-Saturday. KEY MESSAGE 4...Strong cold front Sunday ushers in cooler temperatures for early next week. Following this pattern, a strong cold front pushes through southern New England. This frontal passage may bring the risk for some thunderstorms Sunday, especially as the much colder airmass (925 mb temperatures down to around -5C) moves in, crashing into the much warmer one we've been seeing. Highs in the 40s and 50s can be expected post-frontal passage, starting off the week much cooler and notably drier. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through 12z...High Confidence VFR. W to SW winds around 10 kt through 12z this morning. Today...High Confidence in trends. VFR through about 16-18Z, then MVFR cigs. Sea-breeze likely at BOS again between 15-17Z. Additional rounds of SHRA/TSRA possible tomorrow afternoon and evening, though exact timing is still a bit uncertain. Tonight...High Confidence. MVFR/IFR ceilings with SHRA and light and variable winds. Some lingering TSRA possible through 03z. Tomorrow...Moderate Confidence. Starting off IFR/MVFR, then improving to VFR. Some marginal MVFR cigs may linger with a continued low chance SHRA for much of northern MA. Isolated TSRA further to the west cannot be ruled out. KBOS Terminal... High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal... High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/... Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Sunday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Small Craft Advisory will drop off at 8 AM as seas continue to diminish. S winds today may occasionally gust to around 20 kt over the southern waters. Winds over the eastern waters will be more E. Winds remain below 10 kt tonight over the eastern waters, with the southern waters remaining below 15 kt. Seas remain between 2-4 ft today through tomorrow. Fog may persist this morning and possibly through the day today. Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/... Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. && .CLIMATE... Upcoming record highs: Wed 4/15 Boston 82 in 1896 Hartford 88 in 1941 Providence 82 in 1938 Worcester 85 in 1941 && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for ANZ255- 256. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hrencecin AVIATION...Hrencecin MARINE...Hrencecin CLIMATE...Nocera  209 FXCA62 TJSJ 150729 AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 329 AM AST Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 327 AM AST Wed Apr 15 2026 * A high risk of rip currents will persist along the northern coast of Puerto Rico due to ongoing northerly swell activity, resulting in hazardous marine and coastal conditions. * Variable weather conditions are expected today, characterized by periods of sunshine and passing morning showers, followed by the development of afternoon convection across portions of the islands driven by local and diurnal effects. * Increasing instability from Thursday into Friday, associated with an amplifying upper-level trough and enhanced moisture availability, will promote a more active weather pattern with widespread afternoon convective development across Puerto Rico. * Southeasterly low-level winds will promote slightly above- normal temperatures, particularly across coastal and urban areas. && .Short Term(Today through Friday)... Issued at 327 AM AST Wed Apr 15 2026 A relatively tranquil weather pattern prevailed during the overnight hours, with mostly clear skies as earlier upper-level cloudiness and showers shifted eastward and remained over the surrounding waters or moved out of the forecast area. As a result, the islands experienced clear to partly cloudy conditions. Some showers and isolated thunderstorms lingered across the southeastern quadrant of the CWA, mainly affecting the Caribbean waters, with the strongest activity observed around midnight. Overnight temperatures ranged from the low to mid 70s across coastal areas, with slightly cooler and more refreshing conditions across the higher elevations. Winds remained light and variable at around 5 mph or less. An unstable and moist weather pattern is expected today across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Atmospheric conditions will support the development of showers and a few thunderstorms, aided by abundant low-level moisture and the presence of a surface trough across the region. In addition, a cut-off low aloft is enhancing upper-level westerly winds (zonal flow), which may help some storms become more organized and produce locally strong wind gusts. At the low to mid levels (1000–700 mb), winds will range from the southeast to the south due to the surface trough, with its axis over Hispaniola, and a mid-level low positioned just west of the forecast area. This wind pattern is favorable for the development of showers across northeastern Puerto Rico, extending into north-central areas. Given the mostly clear conditions early in the day, local and diurnal effects are expected to develop early, potentially leading to convection by mid-morning across northeastern Puerto Rico, including areas near El Yunque. Showers will mainly affect northeastern areas during the morning, followed by activity developing over the northwestern portions and drifting into northwestern to north-central areas, as suggested by high-resolution models. Therefore, there is a moderate to high confidence that the bulk of the showers will be between 12 PM to 6 PM across northwestern sections, where the heaviest showers can result in flooding problems in urban areas especially. For late tonight into Thursday, conditions will become slightly more favorable for instability as an upper-level trough amplifies just west of the region, placing the divergent side of the system over much of the eastern portion of the CWA. This setup will enhance upper-level diffluence and support increased upward motion, leading to a more favorable environment for convective development. This pattern is expected to persist through the rest of the period, as another cut-off low establishes over Hispaniola and stalls, maintaining a diffluent pattern across the area. Considering this overall setup, a wetter pattern is likely from Thursday into Friday. Global model guidance and high-resolution models suggest active afternoons driven by local and diurnal effects, supported by limited early cloud cover. For Thursday, an increase in low-level winds is forecast, as indicated by 925 mb wind speeds, resulting in faster-moving showers that may limit rainfall accumulations. Additionally, precipitable water values are expected to remain around the 75th percentile on both days, supporting periods of rainfall. && .Long Term(Saturday through Wednesday)... Issued at 327 AM AST Wed Apr 15 2026 Variable conditions may persist through the weekend, with a gradual improvement over the first part of the next workweek. Wind pattern will mostly be dominated by a surface high pressure lingering over the Central Atlantic, promoting winds from the E-SE. Another feature that may influence the weather pattern in the deep-layered trough that, according to the latest model guidance, is expected to linger over Hispaniola. From the deterministic guidance of the GFS and ECMWF, it seems that Saturday and Sunday will most likely be the wettest days of the period, with PWAT values lingering between 1.8 and 2.0 inches, wet for this time of the year. Additionally, low to mid level moisture content will remain high (above 60%), while model sounding suggests skinny profiles. Conditions look favorable for convection, as the influence of the trough will maintain slightly cooler than normal mid level temperatures (around -8 degrees Celsius) and a nearby jet with strong winds aloft (around 60 knots), allowing cloud growth and ventilation. With the favorable side of the trough over the CWA, divergence aloft will also increase the chance of deeper convection, particularly over western Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Hence, for the U.S. Virgin Islands, showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely move occasionally throughout the day, while interior and western Puerto Rico can expect showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon that may persist into the evening. Due to previous rainfall activity, soil saturation, and high river levels, the potential for flooding may increase. Hence, the flooding threat will remain limited to elevated for the aforementioned areas. Besides flooding, expect gusty winds and lightning across these areas. For the rest of the areas, passing showers may move from time to time, though a significant flooding threat is not expected. Weather conditions will gradually improve Monday onwards, as moisture content may decrease and the subsident side of the trough moves over the CWA. Nevertheless, there’s uncertainty between global solutions as GFS continues with a wet pattern (above normal PWAT) while the ECMWF on the side is moving toward a more seasonal to drier pattern. From the latest grand ensemble, there’s variability between them (PWAT difference of half an inch), particularly in the mid to high level moisture content. At the moment, expect a seasonal weather pattern, with isolated showers moving over windward sections in the morning hours, with afternoon convection over interior and western Puerto Rico. Due to the uncertainty, the flood threat will remain limited. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 327 AM AST Wed Apr 15 2026 SHRA with VCTS will persist near TISX, while VFR conditions prevail across the remaining TAF sites during the morning hours. Winds will remain light and variable at less than 5 kt, increasing around 15/15Z from the S-SE at 10–15 kt. SHRA and isolated TSRA are expected to impact TJBQ and TJSJ from 15/18Z onward, resulting in reduced CIGS and VIS, with ceilings lowering to FL020–FL050. && .MARINE... Issued at 327 AM AST Wed Apr 15 2026 A surface high pressure system over the eastern to central Atlantic, interacting with a stationary frontal boundary north of the region, will promote light to gentle winds tonight. Pulses of northerly swell spreading across the Atlantic waters will continue to maintain seas up to 6 feet across exposed areas, where small craft should exercise caution over the next several days. Showers and strong thunderstorms will continue across the local waters due to the presence of a frontal system and a trough, creating locally hazardous marine conditions through this afternoon. Winds are expected to become gentle to moderate from the east to east- southeast today through the weekend. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 327 AM AST Wed Apr 15 2026 A High Rip Current Risk is in effect for the northern exposed beaches of Puerto Rico and Culebra through this afternoon due to the arrival of pulses of a weak northerly swell. Beachgoers are urged to heed the advice of lifeguards, as well as beach patrol flags and posted signs. Elsewhere, a low to moderate risk of rip currents will persists. Increasing winds from midweek onward could lead to a moderate risk of rip currents persisting along north-exposed beaches through at least next Saturday. Residents and visitors are encouraged to exercise caution, especially along exposed coasts. For more specific area details, refer to weather.gov/beach/sju. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for PRZ001-002-005- 008-010-012. VI...None. AM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...LIS LONG TERM....ICP AVIATION...LIS  856 FXUS62 KTAE 150730 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 330 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 251 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Patchy fog is possible this morning over the Florida Panhandle and Southeast Alabama, mainly for areas west of the Ochlockonee River. If encountering fog while driving, slow down, use low beam headlights, and increase braking distance. - Little or no rain is expected through this weekend. Drought conditions will worsen. Fire concerns will remain elevated. Use extreme caution with any outdoor burning. Please heed burn bans where they are in effect. - Above normal temperatures will continue through this weekend, with lower 90s likely late this week. && .SHORT AND LONG TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 251 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 An upper level ridge over the northeast Gulf dominates the upper level pattern into the weekend before it begins to break down in advance of several upper level troughs early next week. Ahead of these systems, very warm temperatures will prevail. Our warmest days of the period will be Friday and Saturday in advance of an approaching cold front on Sunday/Monday. High temperatures will likely approach 90 in many locations, especially those across the Florida Big Bend and southern Georgia. The main forecast concerns through the next 7 days will be the continuation of a very dry pattern and increasing fire concerns, especially this weekend and early next week. While the frontal system will bring slightly cooler temperatures and a brief chance for rain, it will not be enough to temper fire danger. Much of the rain chances will be confined to southeast Alabama but even in these locations, forecast rain chances and rainfall amounts are quite low (less than 20% and only a few hundredths of an inch of rain possible). Given that this next front is highly likely to be a dry cold front, and the potential for relative humidities in the teens with 10 to 15 mph winds, we could see the potential for critical (also known as Red Flag) fire weather conditions during that time period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 136 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 The main concern overnight is the potential for fog, mainly at ECP and DHN. Fog is expected to develop near those locations early Wednesday morning, and dense fog cannot be ruled out. IFR to LIFR conditions are currently shown in a TEMPO group. Fog is expected to lift by mid-morning on Wednesday with VFR conditions prevailing afterwards. && .MARINE... Issued at 251 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Surface high pressure will firmly be in place over the next few days. Light to gentle winds out of the south/southeast are expected over the waters this week, with wave heights at around 1 to 2 feet. Seabreezes will likely develop and push inland each afternoon. The next period of elevated marine concerns won't be until late Sunday and Monday as a cold front sweeps through area waters and brings northeasterly winds; potentially to cautionary/advisory levels. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 251 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Hot and dry conditions will characterize the rest of the week as strong upper level ridging persists over the region. Transport winds will be light (5-10mph) and out of the south/southwest through the forecast period. Dispersions will be higher today, primarily for the western half of the region across southeast Alabama and the Panhandle. Higher dispersions on Thursday are limited to our northernmost counties with moderate dispersions elsewhere. Afternoon minimum RHs will likely dip into the high-20%/low-30% each day this week. Considering this alongside the antecedent drought conditions and hot high temperatures expected, fire weather concerns can be expected each day despite the weak transport winds. While uncertainty remains high at these longer lead times, some greater fire weather concerns could develop over the weekend or early next week with the passage of a dry cold front. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 251 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 No rain is expected for the next several days. Drought conditions will continue or worsen. For more local drought information & statements, visit the following websites: weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 89 60 89 58 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 82 63 82 63 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 87 59 87 60 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 89 61 88 60 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 91 60 91 58 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 89 57 88 57 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 77 64 78 63 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ this morning for FLZ007>014-108-112-114. GA...None. AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for ALZ065>069. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Dobbs LONG TERM....Dobbs AVIATION...Dobbs MARINE...Dobbs FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs HYDROLOGY...Dobbs  007 FXUS63 KGRR 150734 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 334 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe storms have passed, flood risk continues - Thunderstorm chances again this evening - Further chances for storms late this week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 308 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Severe storms have passed, flood risk continues Front has passed to the west and the south with lingering showers and a few isolated storms along the I 94 corridor. Most of southwest Michigan is in the downsloping drier air. The boundary will continue to move to the south and east slowly overnight. A few clusters of storms are expected to follow along the stalled boundary and move along the I 94 corridor overnight into early this morning. The atmosphere is mixed over with little if any dynamics so further severe is not a concern. However, potential hydro concerns remain. The heaviest rainfall occurred north of the I 96 corridor with bullseyes of 2 to 4 inches of radar estimated rainfall. Latest CAMS do have a line of showers and storms through southern Michigan, but that boundary has shifted to the south. So will continue to watch for potential hydro threat this morning but the heaviest rainfall should be along the southern row of counties of Michigan . - Thunderstorm chances again Wednesday The thunderstorm chances will keep on coming. There is a greater potential for weak convection this morning. Any clouds and rainfall will inhibit any atmosphere recovery today. Temperatures are expected to get into the mid 70s with Dewpoints into the 60s. The mid to upper level dynamics are far weaker than the previous two days. That said, another surface low and corresponding frontal patter will move through the region tonight into Thursday. Mid level moisture and weak forcing will accompany that system into far southern Lower Michigan. The best LLJ and helicity will be in Indiana. If that forcing shifts to the north then there could be a better chance for severe Wednesday evening into Thursday. Due to the above conditions SPC has far southern Lower in a slight risk. Main threat will be wind. Given the wet pattern we have been in, hydro will remain a concern. Latest soundings are fairly moist with weak mid level flow, so definitely more of a rain sounding. There is quite a few areas of stable air so access to mid level moisture could be a concern. WPC continues to keep the region in a slight risk for excessive rainfall. - Further chances for storms late this week Michigan could see a reprieve from showers and storms Thursday into Friday. This break will probably be short lived as another large upper level system is trending to move through the region Saturday into Sunday. Latest mid range models are in fair agreement ion the passage of a large upper level low Saturday. that low should bring a system with decent QPF through Saturday. There remains a deepening elongated mid level trough associated with that upper level pattern. SPC does have southern Michigan outlooked for potential severe weather through this timeframe. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 330 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Storms remain possible over the next few hours though mainly at the southern TAF sites of AZO, BTL and JXN. Wind shear as well will be a concern though that is expected to move out of the region mid morning. Another round of showers and storms are expected this evening which should bring another period of TSRA to the TAF sites. This round will be further south, so it might avoid MKG. The other TAF sites should be affected. && .MARINE... Issued at 333 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Thunderstorms are expected overnight with the potential for damaging winds and large hail. Higher waves will also be possible with any thunderstorm. Thunderstorms will gradually taper off in the southern zones Wednesday morning, but there is a chance they could linger through the day. Otherwise thunderstorm chances return late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 250 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Bottom line: The most significant flood in recent years is likely upcoming on the Muskegon River, with several locations expected to pass Major flood stage. Another 1-2 inches of rain fell last night, primarily in upper/headwaters portions of the Muskegon River Watershed. This joins the previous 2-5 inches of rain in the area that is all finding its way toward the river. A significant and impactful flood on the Muskegon River will be developing over the next few days, with a crest expected in the Friday timeframe. Meanwhile, additional rounds of heavy rain are expected to shift south a bit starting today, with the Grand River basin the more likely to be impacted. With 1-2" across a large area, and locally 3"+ bullseyes expected, we are expecting some localized flooding to develop overnight tonight, especially if the thunderstorms track over urban areas repeatedly. This will also eventually get the Grand River water levels increasing again over the next few days. Currently, this looks like we'll largely repeat the minor flooding (on the Grand River and tributaries) that occurred in the last few weeks. Further south, the Kalamazoo River has been a bit drier lately, so no flooding is expected to develop there, though urban and poor-drainage area flooding will definitely be possible over the next day or two as the thunderstorms move through. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Flood Watch through late Thursday night for MIZ037>040-043>046- 050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Ceru AVIATION...Ceru MARINE...Ceru HYDROLOGY...AMD  967 FXUS61 KOKX 150737 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 337 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... High temperatures were increased at the CT and NY coasts thru Thu. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Well above normal temperatures through Friday. 2) Showers and thunderstorms possible through Friday, mainly each afternoon and evening. 3) Strong cold front Sunday with temperatures returning to below normal Sunday night through Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Like yesterday, boosted temps across the NY and CT coasts abv the NBM guidance, in some places by several degrees. Many of these spots verified even warmer than the adjustments made yesterday, but with onshore component flow, kept the fcst withing the MOS guideposts. Didn't alter the Fri numbers with an increasing likelihood of a shrtwv trof passing thru not only reducing heights but triggering shwrs and tstms. .KEY MESSAGE 2... With the H3 jet residing over QC thru Thu, the main zone for convective initiation and convergence should be N of the area thru the period. Supporting this, model timeheights show a good deal of synoptic subsidence over the area. Nevertheless, it remains possible that shwrs and tstms could reach the cwa based on sely storm motion, and the cold pool driven movement and redevelopment, and potential outflow boundaries. One feature to watch which could alter this setup today is the MCS near Lake Erie. It is modeled to track N of the area and dissipate today, but if this feature ends up further S it could end up being a trigger locally. For Fri, will still be watching the potential passage of shrtwv trof during the day. This could spark a round of svr if daytime timing is realized. The feature is still invof CO/NE so confidence in the exact timing is low attm. .KEY MESSAGE 3... A strong cold front is forecast to move through the region during Sunday, while there are still some timing difference, consenus is for a cold frontal passage Sunday afternoon. Showers will accompany the passage, with a chance of thunder as well. After a prolonged period of above normal temperatures, the cold front passage will return temperatures to several degrees below normal Sunday night through Tuesday. The AI-GFS has H85 temps around -12C at 12Z Tue. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure will remain in place to the south through the period As weak low pressure and a trailing cold front move across upstate New York daytime Wednesday, a prefrontal trough will extend southward into the area Wednesday afternoon and evening. Mainly VFR overnight, though cannot rule out brief vsby restriction right around sunrise especially E of the NYC metros. Continued VFR through much of the day today, with chance of showers/tstms and brief MFR/IFR cond with the prefrontal trough late today NW of the NYC metros, and spreading SE to all terminals into this evening. Light/vrb or S-SW flow overnight should become SW 10-15 kt inland and S along the coast, with some gusts over 20 kt at the NYC metros north/west. Winds diminish to less than 10 kt by 00Z-01Z Thu. LLWS possible late this evening after any showers/tstms pass, with WSW flow 35-40 kt at FL020. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... No unscheduled AMD expected attm. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... Late tonight: Fog with IFR vsby possible at KGON/KISP/KBDR, otherwise VFR as showers/tstms end. Thursday and Thursday night: Any early morning IFR cond should improve quickly to VFR. Friday: Chance of showers and possibly a tstm especially in the afternoon and early evening, with MVFR or lower cond. Saturday: VFR. Sunday: Chance of showers with MVFR cond possible. SW-W winds G20kt in the afternoon. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Winds and seas are expected to remain blw SCA lvls thru Sat. A strong frontal sys will increase winds and waves by late in the day Sun, with SCA cond likely by Sun ngt. The SCA winds and waves are modeled to continue thru Mon. && .CLIMATE... Daily record high temperatures that could be reached: Wed, April 15: KEWR: 88/1960 KBDR: 81/1960 KNYC: 87/1941 KLGA: 86/1941 KJFK: 80/2006 KISP: 78/2024 Daily record high minimum temperatures that could be reached: Wed, April 15: KEWR: 60/2023 KBDR: 53/2012 KNYC: 67/1941 KLGA: 64/1941 KJFK: 58/1960 KISP: 56/2023 Thu, April 16: KEWR: 64/2002 KBDR: 53/2002 KNYC: 69/2002 KLGA: 68/2002 KJFK: 57/2002 KISP: 55/2012 Fri, April 17: KEWR: 68/2002 KBDR: 57/2002 KNYC: 74/2002 KLGA: 73/2002 KJFK: 60/2002. KISP: 61/2002 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$  451 FXUS63 KICT 150737 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 237 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe thunderstorm threat across southeast Kansas this afternoon and evening. Another round of severe storms is possible on Friday afternoon and evening. - Well above average temperatures through Friday, brief cool down for the weekend. - A very high grassland fire danger for areas west of I-135 on Thursday and Friday afternoon. A very high grassland fire danger may return for areas west of I-135 Sunday through Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 227 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 An elongated mid/upper trough stretched from South Dakota SSW over the Rockies into the Southwest early this morning. This trough is progged to translate eastward emerging over the Plains states today. Ahead of this feature, a dryline across the Flint Hills will become a focus for showers and thunderstorms. The warm sector is progged to be weakly capped with storm development possible by early-mid afternoon. Deep-layer shear vectors are progged to be in a similar orientation to the boundary leading to a messy storm mode but we could see a couple of supercells with the initial development as we remain within an enhanced southwest mid/upper flow regime. Any discrete storms would be capable of producing large/very large hail and a tornado before we start to see more clustering toward evening. The activity is expected to be east/southeast of the area by 8-9 pm. As the shortwave trough translates eastward away from the area, we will see mid/upper ridging build over the central CONUS on Thursday resulting in mild an dry conditions. Afternoon highs are expected to climb into the 80s areawide. A vigorous mid/upper trough will move out of the Northern Intermountain Region and into the Rockies late in the day on Friday. Ahead of this system, a nocturnal LLJ is expected to nose into south central KS early on Friday but it looks like the cap will preclude early morning convection. A cold front will bisect Kansas as we move into the early afternoon hours becoming a focus for showers and storms by mid- afternoon as the cap weakens. Similar to Wed, we see deep layer shear vectors in a similar orientation to the cold front leading to another messy storm mode situation. A line of storms capable of damaging winds and large hail is favored as the front races south and east through the evening hours. Mid-lvl waa/isentropic upglide may lead to some post-frontal thunderstorms capable of large hail and heavy rain as we move into the early evening hours. The activity is expected to move south and east of the area by around midnight. Sat-Tue...A stable post-frontal regime is anticipated across the area as we move into Saturday with seasonably cool air expected. Afternoon highs are expected to top out around 60 for most areas. As high pressure settles over the area Sat night into early Sun we could see some areas of frost develop as low temperatures fall into the 30s. A mid/upper ridge is progged to translate eastward into the central CONUS Sun-Tue with rising heights/increasing thickness supporting rising temperatures across the area. Above normal temperatures are expected to return on Monday with highs on Tuesday reaching the 80s in central KS. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1228 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Showers and storms have moved out of the area with VFR conditions prevailing. Southerly winds will continue to gust up to 30 kts for the next few hours until around 09z. Low clouds are likely to settle in to CNU early this morning, reducing ceilings down to MVFR. Winds will pick up again late this morning into the afternoon with winds shifting to westerly in central KS. Showers and storms are possible again this afternoon and into the evening mainly in southeast KS. Continued the PROB30 for CNU and extended it until 02z with this issuance. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 227 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Breezy southerly winds will return to central Kansas on Thursday and especially on Friday while very dry air will also lingers. Minimum afternoon relative humidity is expected to be in the teens on Thursday while rising into the 25-30 percent range on Friday, although gusty southwest winds will increase on Friday. A very high grassland fire danger will develop for areas west of I-135 on both Thursday and Friday during the afternoon hours. A very high grassland fire danger may return early next week for areas west of I-135. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MWM AVIATION...GC FIRE WEATHER...MWM  062 FXUS65 KLKN 150740 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1240 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Southwest winds of 20 to 30 mph gusting to 50 mph across portions of Northern NV today * Strong cold front moves in from the northwest tonight. Gusty winds and snowfall will produce minor travel impacts, primarily across northern Nevada. * Generally fair weather in place Friday thru Sunday, though breezes will be present Sunday * Next weather system moves in during the Monday timeframe && .UPDATE... Issued at 1228 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Latest guidance has slightly stronger winds across Elko County from late this morning through late this evening. The Wind Advisory currently in effect for Humboldt County from 11AM this morning through 11PM this evening has been expanded to include Northern Elko County along with the Ruby Mountains and East Humboldt Range. Southwest winds of 20 to 30 mph and gusts up to 50 mph are expected in these areas. Slightly stronger winds are possible across higher terrain. No other changes to the forecast at this time. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Monday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Fair weather in place tonight with overnight lows in the mid 20s to mid 30s, low 20s in the typical cold spots. Increasing west-southwesterly winds Wednesday as the upper level trof and attendant surface cold front approach from the northwest. Isolated light showers are expected by Wednesday afternoon ahead of the front, though showers look to be relegated to the high terrain. Front begins to move into the forecast area Wednesday night, exiting to the southeast Thursday night. A band of light to moderate snow will be embedded along the front as it traverses the forecast area. Greatest snowfall amounts look to be situated over northern Elko County, west of US-93. 3 to 5 inches are currently forecast. A skiff to 3 inches is generally expected elsewhere. Minor travel inconveniences should be expected, especially during the morning commute Thursday across northern Nevada, based on the timing of the front. Though given that this is a spring season storm and sub-surface soil temperatures are relatively warm. Any slush ups or snow that sticks to the road will do so under heavier snowfall rates. Winds shift northwesterly post frontal and remain breezy. Dry weather expected Friday with lighter winds as a progressive upper level ridge begins to move into the western U.S. Generally fair weather defined by warming temperatures and afternoon breezes, especially Sunday afternoon with notably stronger southwesterly gusts present ahead of the next upper level low and dynamic surface cold front that are still expected to move into the forecast area Monday from the west. This looks to bring additional rain and snow to the region along with continued elevated winds. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in a cold front moving thru the forecast area Wednesday night thru Thursday night. Continued high confidence in this weekends weather becoming moderate in regard to the next weather event and cold front passage in the Monday time frame. Significant change to NBM PoP and weather grids this afternoon with the NBM coming in much too early with regard to the weather event Wednesday. Utilized various model blends and WPC guidance. NBM also coming in much lower than previous with snow amount. Manually edited to maintain the snow amount forecast previously which is in line with latest model diagnostics and ensemble model forecast snow amounts. Maintained NBM forecast elsewhere. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected at all terminals tonight and thru the day Wednesday. Breezes across northern NEvada will ease this evening, though southwesterly winds will become strong on Wednesday ahead of a strong surface cold front that will move thru the forecast area from the northwest beginning Wednesday night. Widespread wind gusts 25KT to 30KT or more will be present at all terminals. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ030-031-034. && $$ UPDATE...96 DISCUSSION...92 AVIATION...92  575 FXUS63 KGRB 150741 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 241 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon and evening. 1+ inch hail is the main severe hazard. - Additional rainfall will continue to exacerbate any ongoing flooding. If thunderstorms train over areas that have seen multiple inches of rain the last two days flash flooding would be likely. - Minor to moderate river flooding is ongoing or forecast to occur on several area rivers. Expect many rivers to rise this week due to additional rain and runoff from Upper Michigan, with the greatest impacts expected on the Menominee River, where some locations may see major flooding during the mid to late part of the week. - Addtioanl rounds of rain and thunderstorms are expected Friday through this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 240 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Short Term...Today...Tonight...and Thursday Fog this morning.. Dense fog with visibilities as low as 1/4 mile has spread across much of the lake and bayshore counties overnight, while dense fog is more patchy further west. The coverage of fog will continue to expand over the next few hours before fog starts to dissipate. Fog will be quicker to burn off across central WI compared to eastern and northern WI. Areas along the lake and bay as well as far northern WI may see fog linger into the early afternoon. Rain and Thunderstorm Chances Today... A stalled frontal boundary snaking from east-central WI back toward central IA will continue to spur on isolated showers this morning, however, most locations should remain dry. Chance for precipitation increases again this afternoon as a surface low lifts into the region. Main concern with this next round of precipitation is how additional rainfall will exacerbate ongoing flooding or lead to new flood concerns given soils are saturated and rivers and streams continue to run high. REFS LPMM shows another 0.25-0.5" of rain with this system through Thursday morning south of a Stevens Point to to Marinette line. However, if more persistent convection is able to develop over this area could see rainfall totals closer to REFS 90th percentiles of 1-1.5" in localized areas. If those higher end amounts do play out in areas with ongoing flooding or areas that have had flooding issues over the past two days flash flooding would be likely. The severe storm threat late this afternoon and evening is more muted compared to the past two days. Forecast soundings do show elevated MUCAPEs of 200-400 J/kg late this afternoon along with 50-60 kts of unidirectional 0-6km shear. This may lead to a marginal risk for 1+ inch hail across part of central and east- central WI. The risk for damaging wind gusts or tornados is very low given a stable boundary layer. Long Term...Thursday Night Through Tuesday The latest ensemble means continue to indicate a break in this incredibly wet pattern is forecast this weekend into the middle of next week. Until this time range, the final system to move through the region arrives late Friday afternoon and departs on Saturday. A brief lull in the rainfall is likely on Thursday night into Friday morning as the region will reside between systems. However, that changes by late Friday afternoon when a 35 to 45 kt low level jet advects precipitable water values up to the 99 percentile into the northern Mississippi Valley. Models show precipitation is forecast into expand on Friday afternoon as large scale ascent and moisture increases over the course of the day. Instability increases between 400-700 j/kg on Friday night when the surface low pressure and pwat axis moves through. Because instability peaks at night, the severe risk will likely be muted somewhat due to a capping inversion. But given the wind profiles and some instability, small hail and gusty winds in excess of 40 mph appear possible. Greater concern revolves around rainfall and flooding potential. Probabilities for a 1/2 inch of rain ranges from 40-60% while probabilities for 1 inch of rain ranges from 5-20%. So, most likely looking at precipitation of 1/2 to 1 inch of rain, with locally higher amounts where thunderstorms occur. Given the moisture laded soils, the most flood prone areas may see renewed flooding potential. After the system passes, much colder air arrives on Saturday. A change over of precip from rain to snow remains possible. The probability of a 1/2 inch of snow over Vilas county ranges from 20 to 40% on Saturday, so little to no impacts are expected. But gusty winds in excess of 30 mph appear possible. Thereafter, high pressure will move across the region late in the weekend into early next week. This should result in a period of little to no precipitation into Wednesday. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1205 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A stationary warm front remains positioned across the southern Fox Valley tonight. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to impact northeast Wisconsin, primarily affecting KGRB, KATW, and KMTW through 08z. While the severe threat has diminished, brief reductions in visibility remain possible in any stronger cells. Following the departure of the precipitation, low-level moisture and stratus will expand across the region from the northeast. Flight conditions are expected to deteriorate rapidly to LIFR or VLIFR at all terminals overnight. Dense fog is anticipated over areas which received rain this evening, from central to east- central WI, with visibilities frequently dropping to 1/2SM or less. Confidence is high in these poor flight conditions persisting through at least 14z-15z Wednesday. Conditions will be slow to improve Wednesday morning. Fog and ceilings are forecast to lift more quickly over north-central Wisconsin (KRHI) than areas further south and east. Persistent MVFR ceilings are expected to linger through Wednesday afternoon across east-central Wisconsin, while KMTW may remain IFR for much of the day due to onshore flow. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is possible Wednesday night as additional energy moves into central Wisconsin, likely leading to a return of IFR conditions. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 240 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Widespread flooding continues across parts of central and east- central WI, where flood warning remain in place, due to multiple rounds of thunderstorms that have produced 3 to 6 inches of rain over the last 48 hours. Extensive road closure remain where the heaviest rain has fallen. Multiple dams have also been over topped at times due to high flows on rivers and streams. Runoff from snow melt in Upper Michigan is also still expected to bring moderate to major flooding on the Menominee River, especially during the mid to late part of the week. If you live near a river or stream, keep a close eye on water levels this week and monitor the latest Flood Warnings from the National Weather Service in Green Bay. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....GK/MPC AVIATION.......MPC HYDROLOGY......GK  292 FXUS65 KPUB 150741 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 141 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and seasonal today, with spotty elevated fire danger - Breezy and warm Thursday with the return of widespread critical fire weather conditions - Next storm system brings rain and snow showers, along with gusty winds for Friday into Friday night, followed by widespread sub-freezing temperatures Saturday and Sunday mornings && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 1247 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Upper trough will lift out of Colorado this morning, with slowly building ridge across the state by late day. Main concern for today will be potential for some spotty elevated fire weather conditions, mainly in gap flow favored regions and across the upper Arkansas Valley. At this point, flow aloft doesn't appear strong enough to drive widespread gusts above 25 mph as 7h winds are under 20 kts, so will run with no highlights and just a mention of brief elevated conditions in the fire weather forecast. Max temps today will run at least in the vicinity of seasonal values, though most locations will end up a few degf on the warmer side of averages by late afternoon. On Thursday, upper ridge migrates eastward into the High Plains, with increasing swly mid/upper flow across CO as next upper trough digs into the nrn Great Basin. While mid-level flow isn't terribly impressive (25-35 kts at 7h), surface gradient looks favorable for gusty winds, while humidity drops off to below 10 percent in spots by afternoon as deep mixing develops. Should have enough wind to justify the current fire weather highlight, though have started to see some weaker gusts on the plains in some of the 00z guidance, so have kept it a watch for now. Max temps will climb back into the 70s/80s on the plains with deep mixing, with 60s valleys and 50s/60s mountains. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 1247 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Upper trough swings through the central Rockies Friday/Friday night, with tend toward a faster system continuing in most 00z deterministic models. As a result, cold frontal passage on the plains has sped up, with a few solutions bringing the front through the plains Fri morning, while majority of models/ensembles point toward a slightly later passage in the afternoon. Deep wly flow ahead of the front could produce some critical fire weather conditions on the plains early Fri, especially south of the Arkansas River, though confidence is frontal timing is low enough to preclude any highlights at this point. Over the mountains, snow showers start early Fri morning along the Continental Divide, spreading eastward across the remaining mountains and high terrain through the day. If the front is quick enough, could see showers into the Pikes Peak region/Pueblo County Friday afternoon, with a thunderstorm possible as lapse rates steepen. Rain changes to snow quickly even along I-25 late Fri/Fri evening, with some moderate snow accums (2-4 inches in Teller County) forecast, and won't be surprised to see at least some light accums along the Palmer Divide/nrn COS as well. Forcing for precip drops off quickly the farther south you go across the region, and many areas south of the Arkansas River will see little or no rain/snow. Upward motion diminishes quickly Fri night as trough moves rapidly away, and expect most if not all precip to end by midnight across the area. Winds die off and skies clear overnight, leading to widespread sub-freezing temperatures Sat morning, with teens mountains and valleys, 20s on the plains. Cool and dry on Saturday, and will ignore slight chance NBM pops Sat afternoon, as air mass looks too dry to support convection. After another sub-freezing start Sun morning, warming trend begins from Sun afternoon into early next week, with mainly dry conditions and temperatures back to well above seasonal levels. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1105 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. Winds will will generally be light and diurnally driven. We could see some modest westerly gusty flow at KPUB and KALS tomorrow afternoon. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for COZ220>222-224>237. && $$ SHORT TERM...PETERSEN LONG TERM...PETERSEN AVIATION...HODANISH  229 FXUS61 KBTV 150747 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 347 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 338 AM EDT Wednesday... Confidence in potentially severe weather has increased across portions of southern Vermont for Thursday. Fog is also likely tonight as a boundary remains over the region. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 338 AM EDT Wednesday... 1. Light showers and isolated rumbles of thunder expected today trending towards more drizzle and fog by tonight with a boundary remaining draped over the region. 2. Additional rounds of showers with heightened thunderstorm chances expected Thursday into Friday across southern Vermont as a stronger frontal system rides along our quasi stationary boundary. 3. Another storm system is expected to bring rainy and windy weather to the region Saturday evening through Sunday, with showers potentially switching over to snow on Monday as cold air briefly returns. && .DISCUSSION... As of 338 AM EDT Wednesday... KEY MESSAGE 1: Widespread low clouds and patchy fog remain across most of the region with pooling moisture along a quasi stationary boundary draped across our region. Any fog is expected to lift with sunrise as light southerly flow nudges the boundary slightly north for this afternoon. Satellite shows widespread convection associated with merging MCSs in the Upper Midwest to the eastern Great Lakes, as thunderstorms continue to move east along a quasi stationary boundary draped across the Great Lakes into the Northeast. Our shortwave today is currently positioned across the lower Michigan peninsula with an MCS moving east into Lake Erie. CAMs show this area of convection weakening as it approaches the St. Lawrence Valley this morning. What remains of the MCS as it enters our region will likely just be some light to moderate showers with an isolated rumble of thunder, mainly in the St. Lawrence Valley this morning, with shower activity diminishing as it moves east and becomes cutoff by its cold pool. Cooler air from this cold pool near the International Border will keep the northern areas of the region cooler today with highs in the low to mid 50s, where locations south like Springfield and Rutland, Vermont may warm into the 70s. Unlike yesterday, there is better confidence in cloud cover and convective inhibition lingering through most of the day from this approaching MCS. The cold pool should remain over the region today limiting the potential for severe weather or any widespread thunderstorms. However, south of the boundary into Rutland/Windsor Counties, any clearing today may allow for some isolated thunderstorm development, though these storms should remain sub severe and weak, with better instability south of our region. Light showers will continue into this evening with weak forcing, with perhaps some mid level drying from upper level divergence associated with an approaching low level jet for Thursday. This drying will be associated with a strong inversion tonight which will likely lead to widespread drizzle and some patchy fog as temperatures cool, but surface moisture remains ample. Lows tonight will be similar to last night with values in the mid 40s to mid 50s. KEY MESSAGE 2: A shortwave currently over the Central Plains will track across the Great Lakes into our region Thursday with increasing showers and embedded thunderstorms. This area of energy will ride along our nearly stationary boundary that will remain parked over the region through the end of the week. The latest SPC day2 outlook shows a Slight Risk (2 out of 5) for western Rutland County in Vermont, and southern Essex County in NY, with a Marginal Risk (1 out of 5) for portions of the northern Adirondacks and central and southern Vermont on Thursday. The main threat with any thunderstorms Thursday look to be damaging wind gusts and some isolated large hail. As with the recent days, there is little change in the overall synoptic pattern with a strong ridge across the southeast leading to several rounds of showers and thunderstorms into the weekend. A shortwave on Thursday will likely be preceded by a decaying MCS as has been the theme the last few days. Convective blowoff through the day will help to keep instability at bay for the better part of Thursday before some clearing can work in for the afternoon/evening. A weak sfc low will track northeast along the St. Lawrence Valley with a lifting warm front during Thursday morning. It will be difficult to determine how much cloud cover remains into the afternoon as to how much instability can develop. The HRRR and HREF appear to be the most aggressive across southern Vermont with the HREF denoting 50-70% chance for > 500 J/kg of sfc CAPE, and 30-40% for > 1000 J/kg, which for mid April is pretty good. Additionally, the low level jet associated with the sfc low will be better located with the highest CAPE as compared to Tuesday with a colocated maximum of 0 to 6 km shear up to 50 kts, which would support thunderstorm activity. The NAM3 is more muddy with broken cells and stratiform mixed in which would limit any discrete cell potential, which does exist in the HRRR 00Z run. Given the presence of the boundary, the best chances for any severe weather would be across Rutland/Windsor counties with temperatures potentially into the mid 70s. Areas north of the boundary could remain in the low to mid 60s depending on the precipitation shield and cloud cover, which will be hard to determine as the boundary fluctuates. Pwat values will be near 1 to 1.3" which would support some localized heavy downpours, and combined with elevation snowmelt, some sharp rises on central/northern waterways are likely through Friday. However, no flooding is expected, but high flows will need to be watched depending on any repeated thunderstorm activity. The main threat with any storms would be damaging winds and isolated large hail, though, some rotating storms cannot be ruled out with curved hodographs and > 250 m2/s2 0 to 3 SRH values in southern Vermont. A similar pattern setup on Friday will lead to additional shower and thunderstorm chances. A sfc low will track across the region, with some better forcing underneath the center of the low across the Adirondacks and central and southern Vermont. Thunderstorm chances will be maximized in the late morning and early afternoon with surface instability likely from another decaying MCS. However, the instability will be competing with a drying mid to upper level as a nose of high pressure will try to work in for Friday afternoon. There is still some timing differences between global models which will play a role in where any thunderstorm activity will setup. CAMs will be in range in the next forecast package to provide some better guidance. KEY MESSAGE 3: Surface low pressure is expected to cross Ontario into Quebec on Saturday, with an upper level trough trailing slightly behind it. Southerly winds will increase as gradients tighten over northern New York and Vermont and as a strong low level jet streak approaches the area from the west. This southerly flow will advect in plenty of warmth by Saturday afternoon with highs reaching into the upper 60s and lower 70s, which is 10-15 degrees above seasonal normals for this time of year. The south/southwest orientation of the low level jet will favor gusty winds over the St. Lawrence Valley, off the northern slopes of the Adirondacks, and channeled up the northern Champlain Valley, where gusts in the range of 20 to 30+ knots are possible late Saturday afternoon and into the overnight. Precipitation chances will also increase late Saturday afternoon and evening, with widespread soaking rainfall likely lingering into Sunday afternoon and evening as well. An associated cold frontal boundary is forecast to cross the forecast area early enough Sunday morning to limit destabilization and thunderstorm potential. Model blend precipitation projections continue indicate we could get around a quarter of an inch of precip in 24 hours, but not likely much more than that. Colder air rushing in behind the front Sunday will make it tough for most spots to reach above the 50 during the afternoon before falling into the 20s and lower 30s Sunday night. Due to this dramatic temperature drop towards freezing, there is the potential for lingering rain showers to change over to snow showers Sunday night, starting first on mountaintops and lowering in elevation from there. By the time the cold air reaches the wider valley floors early Monday morning, probability of precipitation will be only about 20-40%. Highs Monday will likely only reach the mid 30s to lower 40s. High pressure takes over early next week to recover temperatures slightly, then model consensus dwindles beyond that. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 06Z Thursday...Rain has come to an end across the region, leaving behind it low clouds and fog. TAF sites are reporting mainly ceilings 300-1000 feet above ground level with some exceptions closer to 1500-3500 feet cigs, but these exceptions are largely brief, returning back to IFR levels within an hour or so. Visibilities range greatly, anywhere from 1/2 mile to 6+ miles as patchy fog drifts in and out of TAF site locations. These IFR conditions are expected to continue through around 12Z-18Z Wednesday, with ceilings lifting MVFR or VFR levels. Then, additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected Wednesday, as a frontal boundary remains draped across our forecast area. Showers are most likely to occur 15Z through 21Z Wednesday, and ceilings are expected to temporarily lower to MVFR levels in this rain. Winds will likely remain variable through the period. Towards 18Z-21Z Wednesday, we should see ceilings lower once more as an atmospheric inversion sets up, returning to the low cloud (MVFR or lower) and foggy type of weather we're seeing early this morning. Some LLWS is also expected as southwest to west winds at 2000 ft increase around 18Z-21Z Wednesday onwards. Outlook... Thursday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: MVFR. Chance SHRA. Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Danzig DISCUSSION...Danzig/Storm AVIATION...Storm  973 FXUS63 KLMK 150749 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 349 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Well-above normal temperatures continue throughout the upcoming week. A few temperature records may be in jeopardy tomorrow. * Dry weather is likely to continue today and tonight (~90% confidence). The next chance for rainfall is expected Thursday, with some strong storms possible in the afternoon and evening. * A stronger cold front will bring a chance for showers and storms again on Saturday. Another low-end threat for strong storms exists with this system. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 349 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Mild conditions continue across southern IN and central KY this morning with temperatures in the upper 60s and low 70s as of 07Z. Scattered high clouds continue to stream across the region, with these clouds spreading east from overnight convection across the southern Plains. No significant weather is expected through sunrise, with mild temperatures and light S/SW breezes continuing across the area. Today's forecast is pretty similar to the last few days as southeast US upper ridging and broad SW flow across the Plains and Midwest continues. Within this belt of SW flow, an unseasonably warm and unstable air mass will again be present just to the north and west of our area, with waves of strong to severe storms expected to continue this afternoon and evening. HREF paintball plots of reflectivity greater than 30 dBZ shows the vast majority of the convective activity remaining along and north of I-70 today, though there is a 10-15% chance that a stray storm could approach our northern row of IN counties later today. Otherwise, the main story today will be the continuation of well-above normal temperatures, with highs expected to reach the low-to-mid 80s this afternoon. SW winds of 10-15 mph with gusts of 20-30 mph are expected again today, along with a scattered stratocumulus field in addition to the high clouds. An upper-level shortwave will begin to erode the southeast ridge tonight, with the greatest height falls across the Ohio Valley not expected until early Thursday morning. As a result, showers and thunderstorms should begin to push closer to the area after midnight, though it's unlikely that most of this activity will reach our western counties until the pre-dawn hours on Thursday. For most of tonight, expect another mild night with temperatures falling through the 70s into the 60s with light S/SW winds. As convection approaches our area Thursday morning, it is expected to outrun the best instability axis. As a result, showers and storms should be weakening as they move across SW IN/W KY, and there's only a ~15% chance of thunder by the time activity reaches our western counties. After sunrise Thursday, rain showers should continue to weaken as they approach the I-65 corridor, with increasing clouds expected with this wave of showers. How long these clouds can remain over the area will determine the extent of the strong/severe storm threat Thursday, as lingering clouds could limit the amount of instability available for storms Thursday afternoon and evening. 0Z HREF progs show an axis of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE nosing in from the southwest as sfc dewpoints should be in the upper 50s and low-to-mid 60s. 45-50 kt 500 mb flow should allow for roughly 40 kt of effective bulk shear, so organized multicells and perhaps a few bowing segments would be possible. The main severe hazard tomorrow afternoon should be damaging wind gusts, though if any of the higher- end instability progs verifies, severe hail would also be possible. The window for strong to severe storms should be between roughly 4 PM and 10 PM, with instability decreasing after sunset Thursday. Once showers and storms dissipate Thursday night, clearing skies and light winds are expected through Friday morning. Any areas which receive rainfall could see patchy fog develop Friday morning. Low temperatures should fall into the upper 50s and low-to-mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 349 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Friday and Friday Night... Another upper trough ejecting across the Rockies and into the Plains during the day on Friday will cause ridging to flex northward into the Ohio Valley, though this episode of the southeast US ridging should be short-lived. Southwest flow should increase during the day on Friday, with another day of near-record temperatures expected as highs should reach the low-to-mid 80s. Upper ridging should be strong enough to keep most areas dry Friday into Friday evening, with waves of strong to severe convection again passing to the NW of the region. There is still a modest signal that a few showers could develop as the LLJ intensifies and pushes into the area Friday night, with the best chances for rain through Saturday morning expected west of I-65. Saturday and Saturday Night... Upper troughing over the Plains is expected to amplify as it crosses the Mississippi Valley on Sunday, with the trough expected to remain fairly open/positively-tilted as it approaches the Ohio Valley. The sfc low associated with this upper wave is expected to be over central Ontario by Saturday afternoon, with an extensive cold front stretching to the south-southwest into the Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the front, S/SW winds should allow for another warm day on Saturday, with sustained winds of 10-15 mph and gusts of 20-30 mph expected. Temperatures are expected to reach the upper 70s and low 80s Saturday afternoon, with increasing clouds and showers/storms limiting heating, especially west of I-65. Uncertainty with how much destabilization will occur is again a limiting factor for the severe storm potential Saturday into Saturday evening. Current LREF 50th percentile SBCAPE values range from 400-800 J/kg across the area, with high-end (90th percentile) values around 1000-1400 J/kg. This will be sufficient for strong storms given the strong forcing along the front and ~40 kt of effective bulk shear; however, if there is more early-day showers and cloud cover, the overall threat would be reduced. Model soundings show fairly unidirectional shear profiles ahead of the front, and linear convective modes would be the most likely. As a result, continue to think that damaging winds would be the main threat with any strong storms. In the 0Z guidance, timing has remained fairly consistent, with the best chances for storms crossing the area between the early afternoon and just after sunset Saturday. By the late evening hours Saturday, winds are expected to veer to the W/NW, with temperatures tumbling into the 40s Sunday morning. Showers may linger across east central and southeast KY into the pre-dawn hours Sunday, with rapid clearing taking place to the NW. Sunday into Early Next Week... Seasonably cool and dry weather is expected for Sunday and Monday as the synoptic pattern remains progressive and upper troughing quickly crosses the region. Sfc high pressure should move over the area Sunday night into Monday morning, with this likely being the coolest morning over the next 7 days. There are 40-50% chances for low temperatures that would be support frost (<= 37F) Monday morning, so that's something we'll have to monitor in the otherwise quiet pattern. A warming trend is expected as we head toward the middle of next week, with NW flow keeping conditions dry through next Tuesday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 127 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions and south-southwest winds around 6-12 kt are expected through mid-morning, with occasional 15-20 kt gusts possible. As previous discussions have mentioned, there should be some marginal LLWS over the next few hours as a 40-45 kt LLJ resides just to the north of HNB and SDF. A fairly similar setup to the last few days is expected today, with winds and wind gusts increasing between 13-15Z as daytime heating begins. Expect sustained winds generally between 10-15 kt, with gusts of 20-25 kt likely. A SCT-BKN stratocu field should develop again today, with cloud bases between 5-7k ft. This evening, wind gusts should ease around sunset, with S/SW winds around 6-12 kt expected again tonight. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CSG LONG TERM...CSG AVIATION...CSG  389 FXUS61 KRLX 150754 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 354 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The Storm Prediction Center has expanded the Marginal Risk for severer thunderstorms across the middle Ohio Valley for Thursday afternoon and evening, in response to faster timing with a system approaching from the west. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Record to near-record heat will persist through Saturday, with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s, and isolated 90s possible today and Saturday. - 2) Elevated fire danger continues through the week due to anomalous heat, minimum afternoon relative humidity percentages in the 30s, breezy conditions, and antecedent dry dead fuels with only a couple of opportunities for a conditional wetting rain. - 3) Isolated to scattered strong thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening, primarily in interior southeast Ohio. There is a better chance for showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and night, as a system moves through. A few storms may produce marginally severe wind gusts or hail in interior southeast Ohio this afternoon and evening, and across the middle Ohio Valley Thursday afternoon and evening. - 4) A strong cold front Saturday night into Sunday will end the heatwave, bringing afternoon and evening showers and strong storms evolving into a period of beneficial nighttime rain. - 5) Much cooler and mainly dry weather follows the cold front for the early portion of next week. There is the potential for frost on Monday and Tuesday mornings, and minimum afternoon relative humidity percentages in the 20s. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A mid/upper-level ridge builds slightly today, and then rebuilds Friday behind a Thursday/Thursday night system. This will maintain the summer-like weather, with record to near- record heat through the balance of the week, along with unseasonably mild nights. The hottest afternoons are expected today and Saturday, with the Thursday/Thursday night system in the next key message dampening highs a bit Thursday and Friday. KEY MESSAGE 2... Minimum afternoon relative humidity percentages will be in the 30s for all but interior southeast Ohio through the weekend, and then in the 20s next Monday and Tuesday. With wind gusts of 15 to 25 mph most days (less Friday), and only a couple of opportunities for a conditional wetting rain, afternoon and evening fire danger is likely to be enhanced. This may be mitigated by rapidly increased canopy coverage across the lowlands. KEY MESSAGE 3... Weak, flat mid/upper-level short wave troughs will somewhat focus low coverage showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. With a corridor of increased shear and instability to the north and west, thunderstorms this afternoon and evening can become strong to Marginally severe across far northwest portions of the forecast area. The primary threat is damaging wind, given marginally adequate shear amid large temperature- dew point spreads. There is a better chance for showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and night, as a mid/upper-level short wave trough moves through with a weak surface reflection passing well north of the area. Amid faster timing, the trough is likely to get close enough to increase shear amid afternoon heating at least across the middle Ohio Valley, and a few storms may produce marginally severe wind gusts and perhaps hail there Thursday afternoon and evening. The Storm Prediction Center has expanded the Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms across the middle Ohio Valley for Thursday afternoon and evening. Friday into early Saturday look mainly dry between systems, the next one in the next key message. KEY MESSAGE 4... A significant pattern shift occurs this weekend as a deep trough moves into the eastern U.S. Showers are likely and thunderstorms possible as this trough drives a strong surface cold front eastward across the area late Saturday through Saturday night. This system is again likely to get close enough to enhance diurnal convection. The instability forecast will again need watched given the increased shear associated with the system, and timing nearly coincident with diurnal heating. Of note is the expansive Severe Weather Risk area depicted upstream over the middle of the Country by the Storm Prediction Center on Day 3, Friday, ranging as high as Enhanced. This system will again provide minimal drought relief although the evening showers and storms may evolve into a somewhat beneficial nighttime wetting rain. Another dry period is to follow, next key message. KEY MESSAGE 5... A period of dry, cooler weather will start the new week, as cool Canadian high pressure builds behind a large mid/upper- level long wave but transient trough moves offshore. Strong cold advection in the wake of the front drops h85 temperatures significantly, to around 5 C below 0 give or take Sunday night, compared with the 15 C or so temperatures of the current early season heat wave. Highs will retreat to the 50s to low to mid 60s F for Sunday and Monday, with areas subject to cold air drainage away from major rivers seeing frost potential Monday and Tuesday mornings, though the high un-strategically crosses overhead late Monday. Temperatures moderate promptly for highs Tuesday and lows Tuesday night, as the exiting high allows return south to southwest flow around the exiting highs, and beneath rising heights behind the exiting trough although another may drop in midweek. The dry weather continues, to include the lack of rain and low afternoon relative humidity. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... General VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period, with a drier day in store. South to southwest surface flow will hover around 5 kts during the overnight and early morning hours, before becoming breezy out of the southwest around 15 to 20kts once more during the day. Surface flow will then become light south to southwest again tonight. Moderate southwest flow aloft may induce low level wind shear during the overnight and pre-dawn hours, before mixing through to light to moderate southwest today. Flow aloft will become moderate southwest again tonight, which may eventually induce low level wind shear again. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Low level wind shear may or may not occur, or its nocturnal timing may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 04/15/26 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... VFR conditions will generally prevail through the week. However, brief periods of MVFR to IFR restrictions are possible within isolated showers and thunderstorms, with a higher likelihood of MVFR to IFR restrictions Thursday night and late Saturday through Saturday night. && && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TRM AVIATION...TRM CLIMATE...TRM  877 FXUS61 KLWX 150755 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 355 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Small Craft Advisory issued for the main channel of the Chesapeake Bay this afternoon. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Near-record April heat through Thursday as elevated fire weather conditions persist through Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Near-record April heat through Thursday as elevated fire weather conditions persist through Saturday. Near-record April heat and mostly dry conditions are forecast today and Thursday. Highs will reach the upper 80s to low 90s across the area both days. Humidity will be on the low side, so heat indices are going to be the same (or lower) than air temperatures. Still, those who are sensitive to heat should take steps to avoid heat-related illnesses. There will be showers and thunderstorms in PA this afternoon as another front approaches, but all of the guidance keeps convection north of our area today. The next front arrives Thursday night into Friday, but it won't bring any relief from the heat as temps will still be in the 80s Friday. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible early Friday, but rain amounts will be meager at less than 0.05" for any given area. Saturday looks to be the last day of well above normal temps before a stronger cold front arrives. A deep upper-level trough centered over the northern Great Plains will form later this week, and will begin to make its way towards the East Coast by late this weekend. The 15/00Z model runs are currently well aligned on a Saturday night timeframe for a strong cold front stemming from this trough to track through the Mid- Atlantic. After several days of near-record temperatures in the 80s and 90s, expect a sharp drop in daily highs once this system moves through, with early model runs suggesting a 10-20 degree overall drop in temperatures between Saturday and Monday. Widespread light rainfall is likely to accompany this front with any thunderstorm or severe weather occurring during the Saturday night timeframe as the front should have pushed east of the area by 12Z Sunday. High pressure moves into the area afterwards, allowing for cooler temperatures to persist for a bit once this system moves offshore. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions are expected to prevail through at least Saturday morning. Breezy conditions possible each afternoon, with south to southwest winds gusting around 20-25 knots for several hours. A few thunderstorms are possible Thursday night into Friday, but coverage and impacts are forecast to be low. && .MARINE... New SCA has been issued for the main Chesapeake Bay channel from 18Z to 00Z tonight. SCA conditions are possible each afternoon through Saturday as southerly channeling produces a few hours of wind gusts around 20 knots. Outside of that, winds remain generally at or below 10 knots. Some thunderstorms will be possible Thursday night into Friday, then again over the weekend as cold fronts track through the area. && .FIRE WEATHER... Winds and Min_Rh look too marginal for an SPS this afternoon. Thursday...Guidance show enough ingredients for a Red Flag Warning day with deep mixing, record breaking temperatures, and sufficiently low Rh's in the mid 20s. Potential for dewpoint bomb day given the deep mixing. Lastly, low MaxRh recoveries tonight/early Thu will drive Energy Release Component (ERC) very high making any wildfires to burn hotter and make containment and/or supression efforts more difficult. Previous Fire Wx discussion... Elevated fire weather conditions are likely to continue across most of the area through Saturday. Each afternoon will bring well above normal temperatures in the 80s to low 90s, southwest winds gusting around 20-25 mph, and minimum RH values around 25-35 percent. Fire weather SPSs will likely be needed Thursday, with coordination from local fire partners and surrounding NWS offices to hone in on areas that are most sensitive. The ongoing lack of rain is going to continue to dry fine fuels, with fuel moistures decreasing a bit each successive day. Local showers and thunderstorms which have occurred across portions of northern Maryland and eastern West Virginia may provide a bit of reprieve in those areas. Thursday looks to be the most fire sensitive day due to a combination of RH values around 20-30 percent and wind gust around 20-25 mph in the afternoon. There is the potential for very dry air to mix down to the surface, this could possibly drop RH values below 20 percent in some areas. If these low RH values come to fruition, it is possible we could be close to Red Flag conditions. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday night into Friday, but coverage will be too low for any beneficial wetting rain. A strong cold front is set to cross the area Sunday, with cooler temperatures into next week. However, there is uncertainty regarding whether most of the area sees a wetting rain, it could be limited rainfall from this front. && .CLIMATE... Many daily records are likely to be broken this week, for both high temperatures and warm low temperatures. Some stations could tie or set their all-time high temperature and warm low temperature records for the month of April. April 14 LocationRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW Washington-National (DCA)91F (1960) 65F (2014) Washington-Dulles (IAD) 87F (1960) 63F (2014) Baltimore (BWI) 91F (1941) 65F (2018) Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 90F (1960) 67F (2018) Martinsburg (MRB) 87F (1960) 62F (2014) Charlottesville (CHO) 90F (1945) 67F (1899) Annapolis(NAK) 90F (1941) 65F (1977) Hagerstown (HGR) 86F (2024) 64F (2014) April 15 LocationRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW Washington-National (DCA)89F (1941) 65F (2023) Washington-Dulles (IAD) 87F (1967) 62F (2023) Baltimore (BWI) 88F (1941) 65F (1941) Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 92F (2024) 67F (1960) Martinsburg (MRB) 90F (1941) 63F (1967) Charlottesville (CHO) 92F (2024) 68F (1941) Annapolis(NAK) 91F (1941) 68F (1994) Hagerstown (HGR) 85F (1960) 61F (2023) April 16 LocationRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW Washington-National (DCA)92F (2002) 65F (2017) Washington-Dulles (IAD) 91F (2002) 63F (2017) Baltimore (BWI) 90F (2012) 66F (1941) Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 91F (2012) 65F (2012) Martinsburg (MRB) 90F (2002) 63F (2017) Charlottesville (CHO) 92F (1976) 67F (1941) Annapolis(NAK) 89F (2017) 70F (1994) Hagerstown (HGR) 88F (2002) 62F (2002) April 17 LocationRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW Washington-National (DCA) 95F (2002)65F (2002) Washington-Dulles (IAD) 93F (2002)59F (2024) Baltimore (BWI) 93F (2002)66F (1896) Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 95F (2002)66F (1976) Martinsburg (MRB) 93F (2002)60F (1941) Charlottesville (CHO) 94F (1976)65F (1976) Annapolis(NAK) 90F (1976)68F (1994) Hagerstown (HGR) 90F (2002)64F (2002) All-Time April Record Highs: Washington-National (DCA)95F 4/17/2002, 4/18/1976, 4/23/1960 4/27/1915 Washington-Dulles (IAD) 93F 4/6/2010, 4/17/2002, 4/25/1960 Baltimore (BWI) 94F 4/25/1960, 4/23/1960, 4/20/1941, 4/18/1896 Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 98F 4/26/1990, 4/22/1985 Martinsburg (MRB) 96F 4/21/1941 Charlottesville (CHO) 98F 4/24-25/1925 Annapolis(NAK) 95F 4/20/1941 Hagerstown (HGR) 94F 4/6/2010, 4/18/1976, 4/26/1915 All-Time April Record Warm-Lows: Washington-National (DCA)70F 4/29/2017 Washington-Dulles (IAD) 68F 4/27/2011 Baltimore (BWI) 70F 4/19/1896 Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 76F 4/26/1990 Martinsburg (MRB) 69F 4/19/2025 Charlottesville (CHO) 72F 4/26/1915 Annapolis(NAK) 70F 4/28/1994, 4/16/1994, 4/18/1896 Hagerstown (HGR) 69F 4/27/2009 && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this evening for MDZ008. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ530>534-539>541-543. && $$ DISCUSSION...LFR/KRR AVIATION...LFR/KRR MARINE...LFR/KRR