952 FXUS65 KRIW 150804 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 204 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A potent late winter storm will sweep across Wyoming through the rest of the week, bringing widespread snowfall to most of the state. Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for the northwest mountains tonight through Friday. - Cold air moves in with the winter storm, with temperatures likely falling below 28 degrees both Friday morning and Saturday morning (90% +). Extent of temperatures below freezing could reach 12 to 15 hours Friday night into Saturday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 109 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 For most of the state, the mild temperatures will belie the abrupt and shift weather shift approaching. Most of the state will again see mild temperatures and gusty winds today, with highs in the 60s. And then the bottom falls out of the forecast. The next winter system is coming ashore along the PacNW this morning, and will already start to spread snowfall into the NW mountains by this afternoon. This snowfall will only increase through the night tonight as the cold air pushes into the state. The main cold front will race across the state during the day Thursday, bringing a stunning drop in temperatures from the low to mid 50s around noon to the upper 30s by 6PM. As the front sweeps through, precipitation will come along as well. Precip will start as rain for the lower elevations briefly, before switching to all snow by early evening. Snow will continue across the state through the night into Friday, continuing through sunset before tapering off. Main forecast issue is how much of the initial snowfall will melt off, due to ground temperatures already being very warm. Putting all these factors together, Have gone ahead and upgraded current Winter WAtches to Winter Storms Warnings for the NW Mountains, including the Wind River Range. Will need to closely monitor the snow forecast for the Bighorns, along with lower elevations of Johnson, Natrona, and Fremont Counties for last minute model shifts for accumulations. As this system sweeps southeast, skies will gradually clear west to east Friday night. The cold pool moving in behind the system is particularly cold for this time of year, and a couple factors will determine just how cold temperatures fall. First is how fast cloud cover clears out, allowing better radiational cooling. Second is if there's any considerable sfc snowpack insulating the cold pool as it moves through. Current forecast is for lows in the mid to upper teens. with clouds clearing sell before sunrise, and snowpack holding for most areas. Current forecast has temperatures in most lower elevations falling below 28 degrees (hard freeze) for 9 to 12 hours. This will have a significant impact on already flowering plant life, animals, lawn sprinkler and irrigation systems, and the like. Please take any and all precautions for a late-season cold snap. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 946 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions prevail through Wednesday afternoon. A weather system will approach from the west during the TAF period, with increasing clouds Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening. Rain and mountain snow will move into western Wyoming Wednesday morning, with light rain at KJAC by 20Z. As rain transitions to a mix Wednesday evening reductions to MVFR may occur at KJAC. Have added PROB30 groups at KBPI and KPNA from 03-06Z Thursday for MVFR conditions and -SHRA. Little to no precipitation will make it east of the Continental Divide through the TAF period. Wind will remain quite breezy at KRIW until 10Z when the gusty northwesterly drainage wind should subside. Wind will increase by mid to late morning Wednesday for most terminals and certainly by early afternoon for all terminals. Wind will be strong from the southwest, which is typical ahead of a weather system. Mountain obscuration will become more prevalent Wednesday afternoon, mainly around western mountains. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM MDT Friday for WYZ001-002-012. Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM MDT Friday for WYZ014-015. && $$ DISCUSSION...Straub AVIATION...Rowe  321 FXUS63 KBIS 150806 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 306 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers over portions of south central into the James River Valley through the mid morning. - Warm and dry today, with highs this afternoon from the mid 60s to mid 70s. - Wide range in temperatures from northwest to southeast Thursday as a cold front pushes into the state. - Turning much colder with periods of rain and snow Thursday night through Friday, with medium to high chances for light accumulations of snow. - Well below normal temperatures Friday through Saturday, followed by a gradual warm-up into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 305 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A weak 500mb shortwave traversing the northern Plains this morning has helped propagate light rainfall across portions of south central North Dakota, main where it overlaps a weak surface trough. These light showers will continue to exit to the east through the mid morning. Otherwise, patchy fog is possible across portions of eastern North Dakota into the James River Valley, as well as in the Turtle Mountains area. Lows are from the mid 30s east to upper 30s to lower 40s west and central. Near zonal to increasingly southwesterly flow is expected over the northern Plains today as a closed Pacific trough moves across the southern Canadian Prairies. With this pattern highs well above normal are expected this afternoon, from the mid 60s northwest to mid 70s southeast. Mainly clear skies are expected southwest and central through the morning and afternoon, though cloud cover will increase from northwest to Southeast through the late afternoon and evening ahead of an approach low complex associated with the aforementioned Pacific trough. Low chances for precpitation (10 to 30 percent) will develop across the far northwest and far north central this evening into early tonight, as a shortwave perturbation ejecting off this trough slides up the southwesterly flow pattern. Lows tonight are forecast from the upper 20s to lower 30s north, to lower to mid 40s south. By mid morning Thursday, the main wave of precpitation associated with the low complex is expected to start moving into the northwest, increasing to become likely (50 to 75 percent) across much of the southwest and central) late Thursday afternoon and evening. With the timing of the associated cold front delayed until later in the afternoon, highs on Thursday are expected to remain above normal in the 60s to mid 70s across the south, while dropping to well below normal in the mid 30s to lower 40s across the far north. With the lingering warmth across much of the forecast area, precpitation is expected to fall initially as rain, before transitioning overnight to a rain-snow mix, then all snow, as temperatures drop. With short term CAMs staring to contribute to the ensemble, the NBM has dialed into a slightly slower evolution of the system as whole, allowing for lightly accumulating snowfall to be possible across much of the forecast area Thursday night through Friday. The greatest source of uncertainty between ensemble members appears to be the relative strength of the trough as it crosses the northern Plains, which has ramification on overall QPF and thus overall snowfall accumulation. A slight majority of members (55 percent) favor a shallower trough, while would help limit snowfall across the southwest and south central to around a dusting at most, up to around an inch or so in the far north central. A minority cluster also exists (45 percent of members), which advertises a slightly deeper or close trough over the forecast area through early Friday morning. In this scenario, the potential for portions of central North Dakota as far south as I- 94 to exceed an inch of snowfall is higher (30 to 50 percent), while portions of the far north central could exceed 2 inches overall (15 to 30 percent chance). In either scenario, overall impacts due to snowfall are expected to be limited. Otherwise, breezy to windy conditions are expected both Thursday and Friday as the pressure gradient across the northern Plains tightens with the passage of the low complex, though the potential for any sort of wind headlines during this period remains very low. With the much cooler airmass over the northern Plains on Friday, well below seasonable normal highs in the 30s to lower 40s are forecast. Warming and dry weather is then expected through the weekend and into early next week as upper level ridging builds in across the region, with highs climbing back into the 60s and 70s by Monday. Long term deterministic models hint at the breakdown of the upper level ridge and a return to a more active pattern by the midweek as another deep pacific trough moves into the western CONUS, though there remains significant disagreement between ensemble members regarding timing. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 305 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR ceilings and visibility is generally expected at all terminals throughout the 06Z TAF period. Isolated rain showers moving across south central North Dakota this morning are expected to have limited impact at any given terminal as precpitation must fall through a significantly dry layer near the surface. Otherwise, a brief period of LLWS is possible in the northwest in the late to mid morning, though confidence is too low to include mentions at KXWA at this time. Winds around 5 to 10 knots will generally remain out of the south overnight, before turning to the west southwest and strengthening to around 10 to 15 knots through the late morning and afternoon. A few isolated wind gusts up to 15 to 20 knots will be possible in the afternoon, mainly across the north. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Adam AVIATION...Adam  866 FXUS63 KLSX 150807 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 307 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm spring weather continues through the end of the week with a sharp cool down behind a front this weekend. - Thunderstorms, some potentially severe, are expected today and again late Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Thursday Afternoon) Issued at 301 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Our area remains in an axis of moist, unstable air within southwesterly flow around high pressure off the southeast US coast. Yesterday's thunderstorm activity played out about as expected, with the primary focus being at the boundaries of this unstable air near the front to the north and the dryline to the west. Remnants of this activity may bring some rain to parts of the area this morning. A dying MCS over southwest Missouri will likely bring some light rain to central Missouri over the next few hours, but will likely be drying up by the time it reaches the St Louis metro around dawn. The activity on the front to our north continues to send outflow southward into northern Missouri but is showing signs of lessening convective development on its outflow and may not make it much into our area this morning. As this morning's showers dissipate we'll see temperatures warm well above normal again today. If we get more breaks in the clouds it could warm even further into the 80s, providing more fuel for thunderstorms later in the day, while more extensive cloud cover taking longer to dissipate would hold temperatures down and limit instability. Meanwhile, a subtle wave currently entering Texas will translate quickly northeast today embedded in the broader southeasterly mid level jet. This wave will bring more lift into our area today than we've seen in the last several days, giving us greater confidence that thunderstorms will develop locally during the afternoon and evening hours. A steadily weakening cap through the day will also allow access to surface based instability during the time around peak heating this afternoon, setting the stage for the most widespread thunderstorm threat locally in this air mass. The strong flow aloft in the jet will contribute to strong deep layer shear across the area today, so any storms that form are expected to take the form of supercells, potentially splitting supercells, with primarily a threat for large hail and locally damaging winds. Storms may eventually merge into clusters with a greater wind threat. This warm sector activity fades after peak heating this evening, but another round of storms is likely along the front to our northwest as it makes its way southeast through our region during the evening hours. This will be driven in part by low level convergence on the front supported by the passage of the primary shortwave trough aloft which helps to finally drive this front southeast through our area. This front doesn't offer much of a change in wind direction, but we do see a modest drop in dewpoints behind it, from the mid 60s today to the mid 50s tomorrow. That's enough to reduce our rain chances on Thursday behind the front, though some showers may linger mainly in the morning in southeast Missouri into southern Illinois. The severe weather threat for Thursday afternoon similarly shifts southeast toward the Ohio Valley. Despite the passage of the weak cold front, more sun on Thursday allows us to warm into the 80s again across most of the region. Kimble && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 301 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 The next trough to affect our weather is currently near British Columbia making its presence felt across the Pacific Northwest. It will track through the Northern Rockies on Thursday before emerging out into the Plains on Friday. This trough is much more amplified than the last one and will set up a much stronger frontal system stretching from Minnesota to Texas on Friday. Moisture return ahead of the front re-establishes an unstable air mass beneath strong southwesterly flow aloft setting up the potential for another round of severe weather through the middle of the country. Latest guidance is in good agreement on the timing of this front with the focus for severe thunderstorm development to our northwest from eastern Kansas to northern Iowa. Although initially supercells, wind flow parallel to the boundary suggests storms will rapidly coalesce into a line with this line pushing east through the evening along or ahead of the front. This doesn't look to arrive into our area until later in the evening when instability will be decreasing. Thus the threat in our area takes on a strong northwest to southeast gradient as the line of storms eventually runs out of good instability. The primary threats with this line will be damaging winds, although QLCS tornadoes will also be possible if portions of the line can surge forward and become better aligned with the low level shear. The air mass behind this front will be much cooler than we've seen lately as it has its origins in the Arctic. Dewpoints drop from the 60s to the 20s and daytime highs within this air mass likely only top out in the 50s to low 60s (5 to 10 degrees below normal). Uncertainty on how quickly this front moves through Saturday morning leads to a wide spread in guidance for high temperatures on Saturday, but the warmer end highs (near 70) will likely be in the morning with cooler air blowing in through the day. Nighttime lows drop into the 30s, but persistent winds likely keep us just above frost or freeze levels. A sunny Sunday will begin to moderate the air mass further with highs more likely to reach 60 area wide. The warm up continues further Monday into Tuesday as southerly winds return and temperatures push back into the 70s beneath a ridge aloft arriving from the west. Rain chances remain low until the middle to end of next week as the ridge shifts east and exposes us to more potential troughing influences. Kimble && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 There is increasing confidence of dry weather initially, though chances of showers and thunderstorms should come up in central Missouri closer to 10 UTC. However, at least some weakening of the convection in northeast Oklahoma should occur, and this area may also just stay southeast of KCOU/KJEF. At least scattered showers and thunderstorms should impact northeast Missouri/west central Illinois Wednesday morning, so did add a TEMPO group for that. Further south, additional storms are expected to refire Wednesday early afternoon. The best chances are across the metro terminals across into Illinois. PROB30 groups continue for these sites. Finally, convection should develop along a remnant cold front in western Missouri by late afternoon and progress eastward during the evening hours. This activity may impact all terminals from west to east toward the end of the valid TAF. In any convection, visibilities may briefly go MVFR/IFR. Gusty winds are also possible, particularly during the evening on Wednesday. Gosselin && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX  099 FXUS63 KTOP 150807 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 307 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe storm threat once again today mainly by late afternoon/evening along the cold front over east-central into portions of far northeast Kansas. Hail and wind will be the primary hazards with a low tornado threat. - A stronger storm system set to arrive by Friday afternoon which may bring a larger severe threat to the area especially by afternoon into the evening hours. All hazards may be in focus. - Saturday and Sunday morning could see frost and freeze hazards mainly across areas north of I-70. - Some north-central Kansas counties may see elevated fire danger conditions set up during Saturday afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 306 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Early this morning, showers and storms remain mainly northeast of the area and also south of the area ahead of the main western trough in place with axis from the northern Plains into the Baja region. A cold front is roughly along the KS/NE border from southeast NE extending into west central Kansas which is quasi-stationary at the moment. The dryline has retreated back to southwestern KS and western OK. A deep moist Gulf airmass remains in place this morning across the area with dewpoints in the 60s. A LLJ is overhead which is helping keep WAA in place aloft for nocturnal storms to remain in place across the aforementioned areas. The associated isentropic ascent should allow a few of the southern showers and embedded non- severe storms to work into central and east-central Kansas areas over the next several hours. Expect these to generally weaken into the mid-morning hours then gradual clearing should take place through the day. This sets the stage for potential severe storms later this afternoon mainly along the cold front as it is pushed west to east across the area. The upper trough remains mostly positive to neutrally tilted as it advances east. Overall, the phased upper system is expected to undergo a decoupling of sorts as the southern flank deamplifies and the northern portion lifts east/northeast. This will help push the front through the area. As the cap weakens due to the forcing aloft combined with surface heating after clouds clear into the afternoon then expect storms along the cold front. Shear vectors appear to be somewhat parallel to the upper flow as the trough remains mainly positively tilted. This should allow for any initially discrete updrafts to interact with other updrafts fairly quickly and lead storms to more naturally want to congeal. Could see early storms posses a very large hail threat with the unstable and highly sheared environment. Then if a bowing structure can develop wind would be favored but also can't rule out a tornado threat especially if this occurs. The big uncertainty appears to be when clouds clear and how strong the remaining cap is near anticipated initiation by late afternoon. Also, if the cold front begins to move faster then that could focus the better storm threat even east and southeast of the area. This will have to be tracked through the day today. Right now, Friday looks to have a larger severe threat potential as an intense Pacific trough digs into the central Plains. Deep Gulf moisture easily returns to the area with return flow ahead of the forcing that moves into the are by Friday morning into the afternoon. The forcing could be at a magnitude that causes any cap to quickly erode without requiring much heating into the afternoon. This could either be strong enough to cause more showers to develop earlier than anticipated or it could help foster the rapid development of supercells if no showers develop ahead of the system. Shear again looks mainly parallel to the flow so interactions would be likely again. Could see the initial storms become a very large hail threat again then transition to a wind and tornado threat. Any training would probably lead to flooding with several areas seeing high rainfall amounts already the past several days not considering what occurs this afternoon for rainfall amounts. Colder and drier weather not to be ignored into Saturday and Sunday morning may give rise to concerns for frost/freeze conditions mainly north of I-70. Saturday could also see dry and windy conditions into the afternoon over north central areas leading to elevated fire danger conditions. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1253 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 As the BL continues to stabilize overnight, by early morning there may be a few hour window where low level stratus forms mainly over KTOP/KFOE terminals. This should begin to quickly scatter after sunrise and lift into the morning hours as the BL heats up. FROPA should take place around midday into the afternoon hours from west to east. The window for storms at the KTOP/KFOE terminals looks to be a few hours by late afternoon with too low confidence to include at this time. As the front pushes further east steadily through tomorrow evening, then expect winds to calm into the end of the period generally around sunset. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Drake AVIATION...Drake  587 FXUS63 KDLH 150809 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 309 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Very warm temperatures (60s and 70s) away from Lake Superior today through Friday. Foggy and in the 30s and 40s closest to Lake Superior. - Rain and thunderstorms on Friday with isolated severe storms possible along I-35 and east into NW WI. - Colder late Friday and into Saturday, with rain changing to snow possible. Any snow accumulation would be light. The chance for travel impacts is low. && .UPDATE... Issued at 304 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Widespread dense fog continues this morning across much of the Northland. Most guidance is in good agreement that this fog should burn off through the morning, so we have our Dense Fog Advisory expiring at 15z. Another round of fog is possible tonight for Lake Superior, the MN Arrowhead, and NW WI. Today through Friday, we'll see prolific WAA shoot high temperatures well above normal into the 50s, 60s, and even low to mid 70s tomorrow. This will be for most of the area away from Lake Superior. Over the lake, that warm air mass should help encourage a lake breeze circulation keeping coastline areas much cooler. Have blended in some high-res guidance to adjust coastal temperatures down for today through Friday. Those very close to Lake Superior (within a couple miles) will likely struggle to get out of the high 30s to low 40s and may see more persistent fog. A low pressure system across the High Plains will track eastward on Friday as a longwave trough amplifies over the central CONUS. That will bring surge of warm and moist air across the Upper Midwest, while drier moves on top of it. This will set the stage for thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening ahead of an approaching cold front. As of now, the most likely area for strong to isolated severe storms is along I-35 and east where the SPC has introduced a Day 3 Marginal risk. A few storms could be strong to severe owing to the favorable deep layer shear and 600 to 2000 J/kg of MUCAPE. The primary threat will probably be severe hail from elevated storms, but there is a wind threat given the unidirectional shear profile. See previous discussion for snow concerns through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1259 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Current Conditions/Today and Tonight: Early afternoon radar and and satellite imagery showed an area of showers with embedded thunderstorms across the arrowhead of Minnesota. These were located ahead of a compact little shortwave trough that was skirting along the MN/CA border. For the rest of the afternoon and evening, expect dry conditions as this system exits to the east. Meanwhile, wind remain fairly light under the influence of a baggy pressure gradient, and that will set the stage for another night of low clouds and fog. Wednesday/Thursday: A couple of days of dry and warm weather are in store for the Northland on Wednesday and Thursday. Wednesday could start out cloudy and foggy, so temperatures depend on how quickly we can clear out. On Thursday, an area of low pressure will organize across the High Plains, and this will bring southerly winds across the region. Current humidity forecast is around 30 to 35 percent, so will have to watch the trends for fire weather concerns. Otherwise expect spring-like weather with highs in the 60s to near 70, except along Lake Superior. Friday/Monday: This low pressure system across the High Plains will track eastward on Friday as a longwave trough amplifies over the central CONUS. That will bring surge of warm and moist air across the Upper Midwest, while drier moves on top of it. This will set the stage for thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening ahead of an approaching cold front. As of now, the most likely area for storms is along I-35 and east. A few storms could be strong to severe owing to the favorable deep layer shear and 1000 to 2000 J/kg of instability. The primary threat will probably be severe hail, but there is a wind threat given the unidirectional shear profile. In the wake of this front, expect much cooler temperatures as northwest wind ushers a return arctic air. Meanwhile the overall storm system will become better organized, and an area of deformation precipitation will develop Friday night into Saturday. Thermal profiles support a rain-to-snow transition. Any snow accumulation should be less than an inch of slushy wet snow on grassy surfaces. One would expect lesser snow amounts if this falls during the day on Saturday given the April sun angle and warm pavement temperatures. Snow will end Saturday night, but the cool air will last through the weekend with highs in the lower 40s Sunday and lower 50s Monday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1241 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Widespread fog will expand through early this morning leading to IFR to LIFR conditions at all terminals. Fog should burn off with conditions returning to VFR through this morning and midday. Another round of fog could be possible tonight, most likely for DLH, HIB, and HYR. Expect mostly light and variable winds through today. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 304 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Today should be mostly calm out on the lake, with a light northeast breeze this afternoon as a weak lake breeze circulation starts up. Thursday, stronger northeast winds are expected, with some afternoon gusts up to 20knots at the head of the lake. This period will need to be monitored for a possible marginal Small Craft Advisory. Into Friday, northeast winds continue through the morning, and then become northwest through the afternoon. Gusts of 20-25knots are possible Friday and additional Small Craft Advisories may be needed. Areas of dense fog should burn off through this morning, but another round is expected overnight into Thursday. With very warm inland temperatures Thursday, fog could linger across Lake Superior through the day Thursday and into Friday. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 304 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Much above normal temperatures enter the Northland today through Friday. Expect highs in the 50s, 60s, and even low 70s (Thursday) away from Lake Superior. A stout lake breeze boundary is likely to set up around Lake Superior each afternoon. Thursday is expected to be a dry one with good low level mixing and high pressure to our north. Minimum RH could drop to 20-30% away from Lake Superior. Some stronger southerly winds are possible for the Brainerd Lakes, north- central MN and across to the I-35 corridor on Thursday as well, with sustained winds 10-15mph and gust of 20-30mph. Combined with high temps in the low 70s away from Lake Superior, Thursday may need to be considered for possible near-critical fire weather. Winds pick up into Friday and temperatures stay warm, but an incoming system should improve moisture. Thunderstorms, some possible severe, are expected Friday afternoon and evening. All hazards are possible in severe storms and some locally heavy rain is possible. On the back side of that system, some light snow may fall into Saturday. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 304 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Elevated streamflow continues across the Northland, especially along the North and South Shores. Across the Iron Range, Brainerd Lakes, I-35 corridor, and into NW WI (outside of the South Shore), rises have been fairly controlled and minor. On the North Shore, antecedent colder snowpack and a tempered return to warmer spring temperatures has meant the melt is still getting going. North Shore rivers are steadily increasing to what looks like a steady snowmelt level with some diurnal bumps forced by more rapid afternoon melt. The Beaver River near Beaver Bay is within action stage this morning, with water expected to be just coming out of banks at this stage with some possible wet spots along the Superior Hiking Trail. Other North Shore streams are following that lead with high flows expected for most waterways in Lake and Cook County through this week as daily temperatures above freezing keep the melt going. On the South Shore, rivers have started to turn over and are either holding steady or starting to come down. Flooding continues along the Montreal River on the WI/MI border. An overall downward trend in river stage but with an embedded diurnal bumps is expected as snowmelt is enhanced in the afternoon. While some passing showers are possible through the week, it's not until Friday-Saturday that a better chance for thunderstorms and widespread rain return to the area. This should allow for remaining snowmelt to keep working through area waterways. By the time Friday rolls around, it seems most plausible that the only significant snowpack remaining would probably be along the North Shore with some pockets of snow lingering in the higher terrain of Bayfield, Ashland, and Iron Counties. Flooding concerns could be two-fold on Friday: rain-on-snow along the North Shore adding onto persisting high flows, and pluvial flash flooding from thunderstorms in areas where conditions are already saturated (mostly NW WI). && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for MNZ010>012- 018>021-026-035>038. WI...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for WIZ001>004. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for LSZ140>148- 150. Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for LSZ142. && $$ UPDATE...Levens / MPX DISCUSSION...NLy / MPX AVIATION...Levens MARINE...Levens FIRE WEATHER...Levens HYDROLOGY...Levens  426 FXUS64 KMOB 150813 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 313 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New UPDATE, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 309 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Moderate to extreme drought, with little to no rain over the next 7 days, will exacerbate wildfire activity. - Patchy to areas of fog development, some of which could be dense, is possible over the next few nights. - A moderate rip current risk is expected for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches through Saturday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 309 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Once again fog has developed across the area and current satellite imagery and observations are showing widespread dense fog starting along the I-10 corridor and rapidly spreading inland. Some high clouds will likely limit how far north the fog will make it but most of the are will likely deal with dense fog this morning. Along with the fog, the presence of several wildfires across southeastern Mississippi and southwestern Alabama could result in localized areas of super fog. Super fog is where smoke particles mix with dense fog resulting in an area of incredibly dense fog. Visibilities in these areas could drop to a few hundred feet at best resulting in highly treacherous driving conditions. Use extreme caution around any area that you knew there was smoke. A dense fog advisory is now in effect until 9 am for most of the area. Fog should slowly mix out after 9 am. BB-8 && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1127 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 An upper trof advances across the Plains and much of the eastern states through Thursday night before exiting off into the western Atlantic on Friday. An upper ridge spanning much of the Gulf and the extreme southeastern states becomes oriented over the eastern Gulf up to near the Mid Atlantic coast through Wednesday, then retreats to the Gulf on Thursday. The upper ridge builds back into the region on Friday while a large upper trof advances across the western CONUS. This next upper trof amplifies while continuing across the eastern states this weekend, and an associated surface low is expected to bring a cold front through the forecast area Saturday night. Prior to the passage of the front, a surface ridge oriented along the northern Gulf coast will promote a warm southerly surface flow over the forecast area. Subsidence effects associated with upper ridge look to keep deep layer moisture sufficiently limited to continue with a dry forecast through Saturday. As the front moves through, have gone with slight chance to chance pops along and west of I-65 Saturday night with slight chance pops for Sunday. Dry conditions are expected to prevail for Monday into Tuesday. There is the potential for dense fog development overnight which will be monitored. Fog development is also possible again Wednesday night and Thursday night. Highs on Wednesday and Thursday will be mostly in the lower to mid 80s, and in the mid to upper 80s on Friday and Saturday. Highs on Sunday will be cooler and mostly in the lower to mid 70s then gradually trend to the mid to upper 70s by Tuesday. Lows tonight in the mid 50s to lower 60s trend to the upper 50s to lower 60s for Thursday night and Friday night, then turn cooler by Sunday night to range from the mid 40s well inland to the mid 50s at the coast. Overnight lows trend a bit warmer through Tuesday night to range from the lower 50s inland to around 60 at the coast. A moderate risk of rip currents is expected through Saturday. /29 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions will gradually give way to LIFR and VLIFR visbys and ceilings across most of the area excluding the immediate coastline. Conditions will quickly return to areawide VFR by mid morning. Winds will remain light out of the south becoming light and variable overnight. BB-8 && .MARINE... Issued at 309 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A light to moderate southeasterly flow continues through Wednesday, becoming more southerly by Thursday. Moderate to occasionally strong offshore flow returns by Sunday in the wake of a cold front. Small Craft Advisories may become necessary for Sunday and into Monday. BB-8 && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1127 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Ongoing drought conditions pose the potential to exacerbate wildfire activity for the next 7 days. While afternoon relative humidity values remain above critical levels through Sunday, drier air flows into the area on Monday which looks to result in relative humidity values dropping to 20-25% mostly over interior areas. /29 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 82 63 82 61 / 0 0 10 0 Pensacola 78 65 80 64 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 78 65 77 65 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 86 56 87 59 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 86 61 86 61 / 0 0 10 0 Camden 85 58 85 61 / 0 0 10 0 Crestview 86 57 86 58 / 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for ALZ052-053- 055>060-261>266. FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for FLZ201>206. MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MSZ067-075- 076-078-079. GM...None. && $$  161 FXUS63 KDTX 150813 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 413 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... -Persistent Flood Risk: A Flood Watch remains in effect through Thursday night as multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms cross a stalled frontal boundary. Previous rainfall has saturated soils, making the region highly susceptible to additional runoff. -Severe Potential: A Marginal to Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms exists this afternoon and evening, with another isolated threat focused toward the Michigan/Ohio border on Thursday. The primary hazard remains damaging wind gusts within any organized convection. -Dry Friday followed by a Cold Weekend: Conditions dry out briefly on Friday before a strong cold front brings rain and possible thunderstorms on Saturday. The weekend concludes on a windy and much colder note Sunday, with temperatures plunging into the 40s. && .DISCUSSION... A stalled-out frontal boundary remains draped across southern Lower Michigan early this morning. Water vapor imagery reveals at least two distinct upper-level waves currently over the Plains that are progged to work through the Great Lakes region through Thursday night. The 00z RRFS and 00z 3KM NAM both provided a reasonable depiction of the convective line that rolled through Southeast Michigan earlier this morning. However, notable differences remain regarding the timing and extent of redevelopment today. Leaning toward the RRFS solution, expect a brief lull by mid-morning as the initial wave exits. This reprieve will be short-lived, as high-resolution guidance suggests rapid airmass recovery by early afternoon. With SBCAPE progged to rebound into the 1000–1500 J/kg range amidst 40- knot bulk shear, additional discrete cells or multicell clusters are favored to develop along residual outflow boundaries. The Day 1 SPC outlook maintains a Slight Risk for southern areas, with damaging wind being the primary hazard. The RRFS remains aggressive for Thursday as well, highlighting a secondary mid-level trough lifting into the Great Lakes. This feature will provide stronger synoptic forcing for widespread, efficient precipitation. Relief finally arrives on Friday as a transitory period of mid-level ridging and surface high pressure provides a much-needed reprieve from the active weather. Attention then turns to a potent longwave trough ejecting out of the Pacific Northwest and arriving over the weekend. A deepening surface low is progged to track through the Upper Mississippi Valley on Friday, dragging a cold front through Southeast Michigan on Saturday (most likely during the early afternoon per the 00z Euro). Any delay in frontal timing could allow for stronger southwest winds ahead of the boundary, with gusts potentially reaching 40 mph given the 40–50 knot jet at 850 mb. While widespread showers may help limit instability—keeping MUCAPE values under 1000 J/kg—the strong wind fields will maintain a marginal severe threat. Post-frontal cold air advection (CAA) looks robust for the tail end of the weekend, with 850 mb temperatures bottoming out around -10°C by Sunday morning. Breezy to windy conditions will make for a "raw" day, as highs struggle to exit the 40s under a persistent deck of stratocumulus. Steep low level lapse rates will also support isolated to possibly scattered rain or snow showers through Sunday afternoon. && .MARINE... Overnight showers and thunderstorms depart this morning while an unsettled pattern remains in place today and Thursday. Additional rounds of showers and storms are possible throughout the day, with similar strong to severe concerns as the past few days. Localized winds in excess of 35 knots, erratic waves, and large hail will all be possible. Familiar wind pattern today and Thursday as the warm front holds near Saginaw Bay, causing winds to back toward the east north of the front. Some relief to the wet pattern is expected Friday before another low ripples through Saturday, drawing a strong cold front across the region. This will elevate winds on a more widespread basis compared to the more localized wind potential in thunderstorm activity through the work week. && .HYDROLOGY... Rainfall totals up to 2 inches were observed earlier this morning across portions of the M-59 corridor and the Saginaw Valley. Given this antecedent rainfall and already saturated soils from a wet spring, the Flood Watch remains in effect for all of Southeast Michigan through Thursday night. Significant rises are expected on regional waterways, with the Tittabawassee and Saginaw Rivers forecast to reach flood stage; the Shiawassee River also remains a point of concern for potential flooding. Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue intermittently through Thursday evening. While broad-scale forecasted rainfall totals today through Thursday are generally around 1 inch—which typically would not trigger widespread flooding—any focused areas of convection could significantly over- perform. The primary concern is for thunderstorms to "train" over the same localized areas, leading to much higher rainfall totals and a heightened risk for flash flooding. Confidence in the exact timing and placement of these heavier corridors remains low, but the overall environment remains highly conducive to efficient rainfall rates. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 159 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 AVIATION... Strongest line of convection has passed through PTK southward and will impact the Detroit taf sites for the first hour or two of the forecast. TSRA may continue a bit after that within the trailing stratiform before showers taper off around 10-12Z. Warm front remains draped across the area with potential showers and thunderstorms today and into tonight. Tried to time out some higher confident windows of time based on hires models, but those times may shift. Outside of variable winds during convection, they should largely be southwesterly around 10 knots. DTW/D21 Convection... A line of thunderstorms will move across DTW between now and 09z. Showers will continue with some embedded thunder possible through the early morning. After a potential brief lull, additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms will exist through the day. DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * High for ceilings aob 5000 ft tonight. Medium Wednesday morning. * Medium to high for thunderstorms tonight between 04z and 09z. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Flood Watch through late Thursday night for MIZ047>049-053>055- 060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...SF MARINE.......MV HYDROLOGY....SF AVIATION.....DRK You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.  973 FXUS62 KKEY 150813 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 413 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Winds over the next 24 to 48 hours will tend to lull during the late morning and afternoon hours, then peak in the early evening and overnight. - Little to no measurable rain will maintain continued moderate drought conditions in the Florida Keys for the next week. - Temperatures will remain near to slightly above normal, with highs in the lower 80s, and lows in the lower to mid 70s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 413 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A broad high pressure remains centered over by Bermuda and stretches back to the west-southwest across the Florida Peninsula and Gulf waters. This had been maintaining moderate to occasionally fresh easterly breezes across the Florida Keys these past few days. Meanwhile, stacked overhead in the mid and upper levels is a ridge that has been suppressing any upward vertical movement. This on top of the very limited moisture that has been rounding the ridge has equated to very low if not near nil rain chances. Today we will see much of the same in terms of sensible weather. Deep layer subsidence on top of already limited moisture will result in little more than sprinkles at best through the day. Overnight we may get enough nocturnal instability to produce very shallow and isolated showers, but even these will do little to accumulate. Meanwhile, the surface high across the Atlantic and Gulf will be at times bifurcated by a thermal trough across the Peninsula due to daytime heating. This will lead to winds lulling through the morning and afternoon, then peaking in the late evening and overnight hours. Towards the end of the week and into the weekend, a broad and weak easterly wave will approach and stall in the vicinity of the Bahamas. Though this feature will not reach the Keys proper, some moisture from this wave will leach and slide westward at times. This may allow for some showers to pass through at times Friday through Sunday. On top of this, the low level steering flow will remain north to northeast and any showers or thunderstorms that develop across the mainland during the afternoons could also slide across the Upper Keys at times. Early next week a backdoor front looks to slide through the Florida Keys with a slight uptick in rain chances but also a period of freshening breezes. && .MARINE... Issued at 413 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A broad high pressure sitting across the western North Atlantic and into the Gulf Basin will maintain easterly winds this week and into the weekend. Breezes will tend to lull during the morning and afternoon, then peak in the late evening and overnight. This will result in mainly gentle to moderate breezes with some periods of moderate to occasionally fresh across the Straits of Florida. High pressure will slide further east towards the weekend, allowing for breezes to slacken. This is expected to be brief as the next high quickly builds in from the Southern Plains on Monday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 413 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. Winds will remain generally from the ENE at near 10 knots with occasional gusts to near 20 knots. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...LIW Aviation/Nowcasts....LIW Data Acquisition.....DR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest  085 FXUS63 KILX 150815 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 315 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A 60-80% chance of scattered thunderstorms exists throughout the day. This evening, especially after 5 PM and primarily north of Interstate 70, there is a Slight Risk (Level 2 out of 5) for severe weather. - Late Friday evening, areas generally west of Interstate 57 face a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for another round of severe weather. - Significantly cooler weather returns this weekend. There will be a low (20-30%) chance for frost Saturday night north of Interstate 70, and a higher chance area-wide Sunday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 313 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Two primary areas of convective activity are visible on the radar this morning. One area is situated across southeast Iowa and northern Illinois, near the main synoptic front. The second area is lifting across the Missouri Ozarks. Both are fueled by a low-level jet and shortwave energy ejecting ahead of the main upper trough, which is currently moving across the lee of the Rockies. Convective tops are notably warming over the Ozarks as this system encounters drier mid-level air, weaker instability, and reduced surface moisture convergence. As the shortwave/MCV continues its northeast track out of the Ozarks and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley later this morning, it is expected to interact with outflow boundaries from decaying northern storms that will have drifted south of the main synoptic front. The net effect will be an area of re-blossoming convection over central Illinois this morning. While a tenuous low-level jet may sustain this activity into the early afternoon, the severe threat remains low due to relatively poor lapse rates and shallow CAPE profiles. Thunderstorm activity is expected to briefly lull this afternoon as a shortwave/MCV departs and subsidence occurs, leaving a somewhat worked-over warm sector. However, this lull may be short-lived due to quickly increasing synoptic ascent within a difluent zone ahead of the main upper-level shortwave moving into the lower Missouri valley. Conditions are expected to become more favorable for severe weather, particularly west of Interstate 55, where CAPE profiles will become chubbier as mid-level lapse rates steepen ahead of the main upper-level shortwave and near a residual Elevated Mixed Layer (EML). With better CAPE and deep-layer shear of 30 knots or greater, supercell and multicell clusters are possible across west- central Illinois. Modeled hodographs from the HREF Mean suggest straight or N-shaped profiles, which are more indicative of splitting supercells capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. While it is uncertain if these storms will be surface-rooted or elevated, an intensifying low-level jet this evening will increase Storm Relative Helicity (SRH) and result in a more curved hodograph. This introduces a tornado threat if storms manage to become surface-rooted. In addition to the severe weather threat, there is a low potential for localized flash flooding, particularly if storms repeatedly track over the same area. The latest HREF QPF LPMM highlights a narrow area in east-central Illinois that could see 3-5 inches of rain through Thursday morning. This is notable, as current 6-hour flash flood guidance suggests that general flooding issues could arise after 2.5-3 inches of rain. A break from storm activity is expected across the entire region on Thursday, driven by synoptic-scale subsidence following the departure of the upper trough. However, the threat of thunderstorms returns over the weekend, specifically beginning Friday night and lasting into Saturday. This renewed activity is tied to a compact shortwave trough lifting across the Mid-Mississippi Valley, preceding a more robust, pivoting trough and its associated cold front. Despite the frontal passage occurring during a diurnally unfavorable time, the parameter space for CAPE and shear appears sufficiently volatile to support an organized risk of severe weather which lasts through the overnight hours as the convection grows upscale along the front. A significant cooling trend is expected from Saturday night through Monday following the passage of the cold front, as the previous week's warm, moist air mass is displaced. Latest NBM guidance indicates a concern for widespread frost, with low temperatures Saturday and Sunday night anticipated to fall into the 30s. By the middle of next week, temperatures are forecast to quickly rebound into the lower 70s. This warming trend is due to an upper-level pattern exhibiting some blockiness, allowing an amplified ridge axis to build into the region. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1159 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A few rounds of TSRA are likely across the central IL terminals over the next 24 hours, starting around or just prior to daybreak. Timing when these may impact a particular terminal is very low confidence at this point, resulting in an extended period of PROB30 for TSRA into Wed evening. Away from storms, VFR conditions are expected. Southwest winds will continue through the period, gusting to 25 kt at times. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...MJA DISCUSSION...MJA AVIATION...25  623 FXUS63 KDMX 150815 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 315 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slight Risk for severe storms expended more to the west today. All modes of severe weather possible, with a locally higher tornado threat along the I-80 corridor. - Enhanced Risk expanded for Friday, covering much of the eastern half of the state. - Much cooler over the weekend with a hard freeze likely in northern Iowa Saturday night. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 312 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Showers and storms continued overnight, with the surface warm front appearing to remain stalled diagonally across the center of the CWA, seen best by the Td discontinuity between sites such as KDSM and KBNW. Water vapor imagery showed the main circulation for today traversing off the Rockies and into the High Plains. A dry slot could be seen intruding into southeastern Nebraska, with the surface dry line residing in Kansas. Showers and isolated storms will continue to fester in the warm sector through at least the early morning hours, fueled in part by the interacting upper-level jet maxes. The southern jet max will round into the warm sector later this morning, the wind field below unidirectional and similarly enhanced. The dry slot will move into Iowa ahead of the cold front this morning, increasing capping and mid-level lapse rates. Trends have favored a lull in precipitation around midday, opening the opportunity for potential clearing ahead of the main severe window in the afternoon. MLCAPE values will approach 1500 J/kg. Deep-layer shear over 50kts will provide good ventilation for storms and favor supercells, but low-level shear lacks today, reducing SRH available for tornadoes. The exception will be near the triple point as localized backing of surface winds will elongate hodographs. 00z CAMs had consensus of a longer-lived UH streak following the path of the triple point, with neighboring super cells taking advantage of the NSE on the warm front. This will be the region where the threat for tornadoes is the highest, and have collaborated with SPC to add in a 5% tornado risk area, focused along and near the I-80 corridor. A line of storms will form along the cold front in southern Iowa and pose a wind threat, although capping will allow for discreet modes to start, adding in large hail and isolated tornadoes to the mix. Cold front initiation will begin near the I-35 corridor. Thunderstorms will follow the departure of the surface low and be fueled mainly by the upper-level trough. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 1239 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 On Thursday a weak ridge will move through Iowa, providing a most welcome respite in the form of a dry, mostly sunny, and mild day with highs roughly in the 75-80 degree range and modest breezes. By Thursday night however, an even deeper longitudinal 500 MB trough will be moving into the Rockies, heralding more active weather to end the week. A surface cyclone will develop in the Southern High Plains with a long inverted trough and sharp baroclinic zone extending northeastward across the Midwest. By Friday morning this front will span from central Kansas, across northwestern Iowa, and into western Wisconsin. Destabilization will occur ahead of the front during the day Friday, and by the afternoon CAPE of 1500-2500 J/KG is likely in at least parts of our area, mainly the southern half. Deep-layer shear will be fairly modest and mostly in the form of speed shear, however the strong dynamic forcing ahead of the approaching trough, convergence along the front, and increasing instability will combine with this shear to be more than sufficient to support severe weather potential Friday afternoon and evening, as outlined by SPC outlooks. The storm system will push quickly through Friday night and clear us out, though there may be some light wraparound precipitation in our northern counties lingering into Saturday as the final lobe of the 500 MB trough moves by. With much colder air surging in behind the late Friday front and temperatures expected to fall into the 30s across much of our area by early Saturday, a few flakes of snow cannot be ruled out in northern Iowa but no real accumulation or impact would be expected. Highs on Saturday will be nearly 30 degrees cooler than on Friday, ranging in the mid-40s to mid-50s, then falling even further Saturday night into Sunday morning with lows in the upper 20s to mid-30s across Iowa resulting in a frost/freeze in many areas. The good news is this cooler weather will be short- lived, as a ridging pattern sets up in the first half of next week supporting a gradual warming trend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1242 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Storms have focused more to the south, affecting KDSM the most in the next 6 hours. Monitoring damaging wind potential upstream as CSQ gusted over 50kts. In other storms, heavy rain and hail up to 1" diameter possible. Severe weather chances decrease after 08z, but MVFR cigs will increase in coverage, lifting into northern Iowa with showers towards the morning. Prob30 groups remain through the morning as showers and storms will be common in the central and east. Midday hours around 18z have begun to trend dry before severe storms return 20z to 00z. Enough confidence in storm timing to put in a prevailing group of TSRA in some sites. All modes of severe weather will be possible in that time frame, along with MVFR cigs and potentially IFR vsbys from rainfall. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 119 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Multiple rounds of seasonally moderate to heavy rain this week will lead to renewed flooding concerns. Concerns will include possible renewed or additional river flooding as well as flash flooding. Output from the GFS- and NBM-forced medium-range National Water Model (NWM) and the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System (HEFS) suggest the most likely scenario will be moderate to significant within-bank rises on many rivers and streams across the CWA over the next week, especially across the southeast half. Some locations may see minor river flooding as well. These rises will be due to the additive effect of multiple rounds of rainfall. If rainfall is higher than presently forecast then the risk of several locations seeing minor flooding and a few locations seeing moderate flooding will increase. Flash flooding is less of a concern than river flooding, however the risk is nonzero. The additive effect of rain events will result in a slightly higher risk of flash flooding from Friday into Saturday. The most likely scenario through the end of this week will be ponding of water or low-end flash flooding especially in urban areas or areas that receive repeated heavy rainfall over a relatively short time period. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Jimenez LONG TERM...Lee AVIATION...Jimenez HYDROLOGY...Zogg  441 FXUS65 KCYS 150822 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 222 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A High Wind Watch remains in effect for the typical wind prones across southeast Wyoming from 6 AM through 3 PM Wednesday. - A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for many locations east of the Laramie Range from noon to 8 PM on Thursday. - A potent weather disturbance will produce windy, colder, and wetter weather Thursday night into Friday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 222 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 What a difference a day makes, the system that impacted the CWA yesterday will be a distant memory as it moves off to the east. A transient ridge will build, bringing blue skies and warmer temperatures. So, highs today will soar into the upper 50s west of the Laramie Range and 60s/70s to the east with lows Wednesday night dipping into the 40s across the region. The only headline for today will be the potential of a low end high wind event in our known wind prones across southeast Wyoming. The 700MB jet cranks up this morning, peaking around 50 knots. However, per the GFS, subsidence is meager, so these winds may not mix all the way down to the surface. In-house guidance agrees and shows generally less than 40% chance of high winds. So, due to low confidence, the High Wind Watch will remain as is from 6AM this morning to 3PM this afternoon. Thereafter, winds will be on a slight downward trend. Onto Thursday, well, some changes are in-store and that beautiful bright light in the sky will become shrouded by clouds. First thing first, lets take a gander at the upper-levels, a positively tilted trough will slide east across the Intermountain West to our doorstep by Thursday night, this is the feature that will bring the changes that I briefly mentioned earlier. Ahead of this, with southwesterly flow aloft, highs will soar back to around 60 for many locations west of I-25 and the upper 60s to upper 70s east of the corridor. By Thursday afternoon through the nighttime hours that's when things will change. Embedded in this trough is a cold front that will dive southeast across the CWA, bringing increased chances precipitation and much colder temps. So, by Thursday afternoon precipitation will begin to enter our CWA across our northwest forecast zones. As we progress into the nighttime hours, the cold front continues to slide southeast, as it does, precipitation chances increase. The other thing of note, as upper-level flow turns northwesterly, a colder airmass will spread into our CWA. Taking a look at 700MB temps, they tank into the -12 to -14 degree C range by Friday morning, so expect low 20s to around 30 as you begin your day. During Thursday night, as temperature tank, precipitation will transition to snow. As a result, northwest of a line from Laramie to Chadron, many locations could wake up to a dusting to an inch of snow. I know chances of snow may excite you, but we can't forget about winds. Another potential high wind event along with elevated fire concerns late Thursday morning into afternoon hours. We will have the 700MB jet ramp up once again early Thursday morning to around 60 knots, primarily over the Laramie Range. With weak subsidence in place, these winds will have a hard time mixing down to the surface. With low probs, via in-house guidance, no headlines as of now. However, it appears that it will become breezy which will increase the fire weather threat as min RH values dip into the 10 to 15 percent range east of the I-25 corridor, stay tuned... && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 1255 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Our ridge starts to become flattened and pushed off to the east Thursday. A cold low pressure system will start to push into the Intermountain west as it dives southeast from the Saskatchewan/Albertan Providences bringing a colder airmass with it. A cold front will start push through the Southeast Wyoming area late afternoon to early evening. Models show it being a pretty stout front with temps in the 50's in front and 30's behind it. However, due to the timing of the front a fire weather watch was issued for Goshen, Platte, Laramie, and the Nebraska Panhandle counties as RH values look likely to drop between 10 and 15 percent for the afternoon coupled with the breezy winds between 20 to 25 mph. Converse and Niobrara weren't included because there is uncertainty with how low the RH will drop before the cold front pushes through raising the humidity above possible threshold values. There will be some showers associated with this front as well. Looking at the model soundings the mid-levels will saturate first and produce virga at first. But the virga should reach the ground into the overnight period and likely come down as snow as we saturate the lower levels and below freezing. 700mb temperatures look to drop to about -13C making it for a colder Wyoming Friday with temps in the 30's while the Panhandle looks to be in the low 40's. The snow showers will continue into Friday as the pressure system start to makes its way into the Northern Plains. Friday night will be the peak of the cold airmass as overnight temperatures drop into the teens and twenties. Another ridge will also start to push into the Intermountain west late Friday afternoon keeping us in Northwesterly flow filtering in that colder air from the North and tightening our pressure gradient creating a cold breezy wind as well. Total accumulations from the Thursday/Friday system looks to be around 3-4 inches in areas west of the I-25 corridor, 2-3 inches along the I-25 corridor, and about 1-2 inches east of the corridor. For the Nebraska Panhandle it looks to be roughly 0.5 to 1 inch of snow with some 1-2 inch areas closer to the WY/NE border. By Saturday morning the system should be far enough east to stop snowing while the ridge moves further east as well. The airmass over the intermountain west will gradually warm up but the Saturday temps will still be in the 40's and 50's. Sunday, warm temps in the 60/70's east of I-25 return with mostly clear skies in the afternoon. This warmer ridge is currently expected to last until Tuesday morning before another shortwave could possibly hit the Intermountain West again. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1055 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Upper level disturbance will push east into the northeast Colorado plains tonight with clearing skies and diminishing precipitation. Some patchy fog is possible tonight in places that received rain/snow earlier today. HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: VFR conditions will prevail through Wednesday with increasing westerly winds late tonight and early Wednesday morning. Can't rule out some fog in a few places that received rainfall yesterday evening, but chances are below 5%, so removed VCFG for now with increasing westerly winds. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for WYZ430>433. High Wind Watch from 6 AM MDT this morning through this afternoon for WYZ106-110-116-117. NE...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for NEZ434>437. && $$ SHORT TERM...RZ LONG TERM...MM AVIATION...TJT  784 FXUS63 KDTX 150822 CCA AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion...Corrected typos National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 413 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... -Persistent Flood Risk: A Flood Watch remains in effect through Thursday night as multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms cross a stalled frontal boundary. Previous rainfall has saturated soils, making the region highly susceptible to additional runoff. -Severe Potential: A Marginal to Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms exists this afternoon and evening, with another isolated threat focused toward the Michigan/Ohio border on Thursday. The primary hazard remains damaging wind gusts within any organized convection. -Dry Friday followed by a Cold Weekend: Conditions dry out briefly on Friday before a strong cold front brings rain and possible thunderstorms on Saturday. The weekend concludes on a windy and much colder note Sunday, with temperatures plunging into the 40s. && .DISCUSSION... A stalled-out frontal boundary remains draped across southern Lower Michigan early this morning. Water vapor imagery reveals at least two distinct upper-level waves currently over the Plains that are progged to work through the Great Lakes region through Thursday night. The 00z RRFS and 00z 3KM NAM both provided a reasonable depiction of the convective line that rolled through Southeast Michigan earlier this morning. However, notable differences remain regarding the timing and extent of redevelopment today. Leaning toward the RRFS solution, expect a brief lull by mid-morning as the initial wave exits. This reprieve will be short-lived, as high-resolution guidance suggests rapid airmass recovery by early afternoon. With SBCAPE progged to rebound into the 1000 - 1500 J/kg range amidst 40- knot bulk shear, additional discrete cells or multicell clusters are favored to develop along residual outflow boundaries. The Day 1 SPC outlook maintains a Slight Risk for southern areas, with damaging wind being the primary hazard. The RRFS remains aggressive for Thursday as well, highlighting a secondary mid-level trough lifting into the Great Lakes. This feature will provide stronger synoptic forcing for widespread, efficient precipitation. Relief finally arrives on Friday as a transitory period of mid-level ridging and surface high pressure provides a much-needed reprieve from the active weather. Attention then turns to a potent longwave trough ejecting out of the Pacific Northwest and arriving over the weekend. A deepening surface low is progged to track through the Upper Mississippi Valley on Friday, dragging a cold front through Southeast Michigan on Saturday (most likely during the early afternoon per the 00z Euro). Any delay in frontal timing could allow for stronger southwest winds ahead of the boundary, with gusts potentially reaching 40 mph given the 40 - 50 knot jet at 850 mb. While widespread showers may help limit instability - keeping MUCAPE values under 1000 J/kg - the strong wind fields will maintain a marginal severe threat. Post-frontal cold air advection (CAA) looks robust for the tail end of the weekend, with 850 mb temperatures bottoming out around -10°C by Sunday morning. Breezy to windy conditions will make for a "raw" day, as highs struggle to exit the 40s under a persistent deck of stratocumulus. Steep low level lapse rates will also support isolated to possibly scattered rain or snow showers through Sunday afternoon. && .MARINE... Overnight showers and thunderstorms depart this morning while an unsettled pattern remains in place today and Thursday. Additional rounds of showers and storms are possible throughout the day, with similar strong to severe concerns as the past few days. Localized winds in excess of 35 knots, erratic waves, and large hail will all be possible. Familiar wind pattern today and Thursday as the warm front holds near Saginaw Bay, causing winds to back toward the east north of the front. Some relief to the wet pattern is expected Friday before another low ripples through Saturday, drawing a strong cold front across the region. This will elevate winds on a more widespread basis compared to the more localized wind potential in thunderstorm activity through the work week. && .HYDROLOGY... Rainfall totals up to 2 inches were observed earlier this morning across portions of the M-59 corridor and the Saginaw Valley. Given this antecedent rainfall and already saturated soils from a wet spring, the Flood Watch remains in effect for all of Southeast Michigan through Thursday night. Significant rises are expected on regional waterways, with the Tittabawassee and Saginaw Rivers forecast to reach flood stage; the Shiawassee River also remains a point of concern for potential flooding. Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue intermittently through Thursday evening. While broad-scale forecasted rainfall totals today through Thursday are generally around 1 inch, which typically would not trigger widespread flooding. Any focused areas of convection could significantly over- perform. The primary concern is for thunderstorms to "train" over the same localized areas, leading to much higher rainfall totals and a heightened risk for flash flooding. Confidence in the exact timing and placement of these heavier corridors remains low, but the overall environment remains highly conducive to efficient rainfall rates. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 159 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 AVIATION... Strongest line of convection has passed through PTK southward and will impact the Detroit taf sites for the first hour or two of the forecast. TSRA may continue a bit after that within the trailing stratiform before showers taper off around 10-12Z. Warm front remains draped across the area with potential showers and thunderstorms today and into tonight. Tried to time out some higher confident windows of time based on hires models, but those times may shift. Outside of variable winds during convection, they should largely be southwesterly around 10 knots. DTW/D21 Convection... A line of thunderstorms will move across DTW between now and 09z. Showers will continue with some embedded thunder possible through the early morning. After a potential brief lull, additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms will exist through the day. DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * High for ceilings aob 5000 ft tonight. Medium Wednesday morning. * Medium to high for thunderstorms tonight between 04z and 09z. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Flood Watch through late Thursday night for MIZ047>049-053>055- 060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...SF MARINE.......MV HYDROLOGY....SF AVIATION.....DRK You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.  545 FXUS64 KHUN 150824 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 324 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New NEAR TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 323 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Low relative humidity values, dry fuels, and gusty winds will result in elevated fire weather conditions today. - There are low to medium chances (20-50%) of showers and storms on Thursday. - Medium chances (40-60%) of showers and storms return on Saturday. && .NEAR TERM... (Today) Issued at 323 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Mostly clear and mild early this morning, with 08z temperatures in the mid/upper 50s and only a few passing cirrus clouds overhead. The main concern today will the potential once again for elevated fire weather conditions again this afternoon. The combination of high temperatures in the low to mid 80s and dewpoints in the upper 40s to lower 50s will create Min RH values between 25-35 percent. Although winds will be around 10 MPH or less from the southwest, some locally higher gusts up to 15-20 MPH may occur from the late morning through the afternoon hours. Given the very dry fuels, observations will need to be monitored closely and caution continues to be urged. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday Night through Friday Night) Issued at 1040 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Upper level ridging begins to push eastward later on Wednesday as a shortwave approaches the Midwest. This feature will traverse the upper Ohio Valley through the day on Thursday, with another shortwave forming and moving over the mid-Mississippi River Valley Thursday evening. This second shortwave will eventually progress over the lower Ohio Valley and portions of the Tennessee Valley Thursday night into Friday. Upper ridging will then develop over the Southeast quickly in the wake of these shortwaves on Friday. Ultimately, what this means for sensible weather for our local area is a low to medium chance (20-50%) of showers and storms Thursday afternoon and evening, with the highest chances over NW AL. However, as we've been alluding to over the past couple of days, not much rainfall is expected (less than a quarter of an inch). Additionally, while there will be the presence of a 80-90 knot upper jet aloft Thursday afternoon and evening as well as ample bulk shear and some instability, there appears to be a decent cap (CIN) over our area. Therefore, anticipating any storms that develop to be sub-severe. Dry weather (no rain) will then return for Friday. Perhaps the bigger concern will be the increasing temperatures that are forecast to reach the upper 80s to around 90 degrees on Friday. These forecast highs will flirt with record highs for April 17th (90 degrees for Huntsville, 92 degrees for Muscle Shoals; both in 2006). It'll also be warm at night, with lows mostly in the lower 60s. Even though it's not summertime yet, it's still important to remember heat safety as these temperatures are well above the seasonal norm for this time of year. If you have outdoor activities or work outside, make sure to drink plenty of water and take frequent breaks in the shade! && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 1040 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A deepening surface low is predicted to eject northeastward from Lake MI into the James Bay vicinity on Saturday/Saturday night in conjunction with a negatively-tilted shortwave (embedded within a broader trough extending from northern Canada into the southern Plains). Strengthening SSW flow is expected to occur throughout the cyclones warm sector, and will contribute to another warm day featuring highs in the mid 80s for our region. Latest extended range model data continues to suggest that showers and a few thunderstorms may develop by mid-day near a prefrontal surface trough extending from western KY into northern MS, and although some of this activity could spread eastward into the western portion of our CWFA late Saturday afternoon, it appears as if precipitation chances will be highest with passage of the cold front Saturday evening. Forecast soundings still depict a layer of warm/stable air aloft (rooted around 4-6 kft AGL) for much of the day, which should gradually begin to erode Saturday evening as a narrow axis of dewpoints in the l-m 60s surges northward ahead of the front and synoptic scale forcing for ascent strengthens ahead of the approaching 500-mb trough. Should an updraft become sufficiently tall to take advantage of mid-level flow that will be increasing to 50-60 knots, brief strong wind gusts may occur. However, at this point, we expect generally weak/low- topped convection, followed by a 2-4 hour period of light postfrontal rain, with rainfall amounts ranging from 0.10-0.25" (SE) to 0.5-0.75" (NW). Present indications are that rain will end around or shortly before 12Z Sunday in the southeastern portion of the forecast area, with gusty NNW winds advecting a cooler, drier airmass into the region throughout the day. Highs on Sunday will fall back into the m-u 60s (even with abundant sunshine), followed by cool overnight lows in the l-m 40s. Prevailing NW flow aloft to the east of a longwave ridge across the western CONUS will ensure a continuation of dry weather on Monday/Tuesday, although a couple of weak disturbances traveling through the ridge may result in an increase in mid/high-level clouds. Regardless, the onset of SE return flow will lead to a gradual warming trend with highs returning to the mid 70s by the end of the period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the period with a mostly clear sky. Winds may become gusty out of the SSW/SW this afternoon between 15-20 kts, before weakening after sunset. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...AMP.24 SHORT TERM....26 LONG TERM....70 AVIATION...AMP  240 FXPQ50 PGUM 150824 AFDGUM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tiyan GU 624 PM ChST Wed Apr 15 2026 .Marianas Synopsis... Latest visible satellite shows Typhoon Sinlaku to the northwest of Tinian and Saipan, moving slowly north-northwest into the northern CNMI. Cloudy skies with numerous to widespread heavy showers are found over Rota, Tinian and Saipan, while Guam is seeing only isolated showers under cloudy skies. Altimetry shows seas ranging from 16 to 20 feet for Guam, increasing to 35 feet for Tinian and Saipan. && .Discussion... TY Sinlaku continues to slowly move north-northwest, away from Tinian and Saipan. Winds are subsiding over Guam and may fall below tropical storm force this evening, Thursday morning for Rota and Thursday evening for Tinian and Saipan. It is important to remember that even though the winds are subsiding, stronger gusts are possible over the next few days, especially with any showers that do occur. Although skies remain cloudy across Guam, showers have decreased to isolated and the remainder of the week into next week looks to remain dry. For Rota, a few bands of heavy showers are still likely, though showers also look to become isolated at Rota Thursday. Tinian and Saipan will continue to see widespread heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms through tonight, decreasing to isolated Friday. For the weekend into next week, a dry pattern will remain over the islands. && .Marine... Dangerous seas and winds continue across the region this evening. Northern Guam waters can expect tropical storm conditions for the next several hours as TY Sinlaku moves farther north. TS conditions could continue for Rota waters through Thursday afternoon and for Tinian and Saipan through late Thursday night or early Friday morning. Seas will be slow to subside, with hazardous seas likely through at least Thursday night for Guam and Rota; and through Friday for Tinian and Saipan. Strongest winds and highest seas will be over the northern portions of the waters. The swell produced by TY Sinlaku will maintain dangerous surf and significant coastal flooding over the next couple of days, with Coastal Flood Warnings likely to be replaced by Coastal Flood Advisories into the weekend, along with High Surf Warnings being replaced with High Surf Advisories. Seas could remain above 10 feet into the weekend as well. && .Hydrology... The rainfall potential continues to decrease, though heavy rains are still possible for Tinian and Saipan through tonight and for Rota through this evening. By Thursday evening, heavy rainfall is no longer expected as TY Sinlaku continues to move away from the Marianas. && .Tropical Systems... At 500 PM ChST, 0700 UTC, the center of Typhoon Sinlaku was located near 16.0N 144.8E, roughly 90 miles northwest of Tinian and Saipan, and 175 miles north of Guam. TY Sinlaku remains a powerful, well- organized Category 3 storm, spanning roughly 500 miles across, with the outer rain bands extending up to 700 miles outward from the center, passing southeast of Iwo To and extending over Minamitorishima. However, Sinlaku is showing signs of weakening, with satellite imagery depicting a broader, more weakly-defined eye and diminished convection within the eyewall. Sinlaku has been moving very slowly away to the north-northwest this afternoon, at around 3 to 4 mph, becoming nearly stationary at times as typhoon-force winds continue across Tinian and Saipan. An Extreme Wind Warning, issued for devastating sustained winds of 115 mph or greater, was extended for Tinian and Saipan through the morning hours as the east to southeastern edge of the eyewall lingered overhead, finally exiting northwest of the islands around mid-day. Maximum sustained winds remain at 125 mph, and Sinlaku is forecast to continue weakening through the next few days as it moves through the northern CNMI. A Typhoon Warning continues for Tinian, Saipan, Rota, Alamagan, Pagan, and Agrihan, while a Tropical Storm Warning and Typhoon Watch remain in effect for Guam. && .Eastern Micronesia... An unsettled pattern has set up from RMI to central eastern Micronesia. This is due to the remains of a fragment of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) interacting with a trade-wind trough traversing the ITCZ. As Sinlaku moves further away. This will allow for the ITCZ fragment to move westward over the coming days and bring showers to Kosrae and lingering in RMI. These showers may move into Pohnpei around Friday night and Monday. Altimetry shows combined seas of 6 to 8 feet near Pohnpei and 4 to 6 near Majuro. Winds are expected to gentle to moderate falling to light to gentle by the beginning of next week. && .Western Micronesia... Scatterometry data shows gentle to fresh westerlies across the region. Satellite imagery shows overall patchy showers within this pattern, across Palau, Yap, and Chuuk. Altimetry shows seas slightly higher than wave model guidance near Chuuk, with seas increasing to 12 to 15 feet in far northwestern Chuuk State. Northwest swell emanating from Typhoon Sinlaku and swell produced by persistent westerlies is expected to produce hazardous surf along west and north facing reefs of Chuuk through Thursday afternoon. For Yap and Palau, large northeast swell emanating from distant Typhoon Sinlaku continues to produce hazardous seas within Yap coastal waters and could peak around 11 to 13 feet before slowly tapering off on Thursday. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for Yap through Thursday afternoon. Continue to expect elevated seas within Palau coastal waters, but seas reaching hazardous criteria of 10 feet is only expected through tonight, so the Small Craft Advisory was shortened, to expire early Thursday morning. This long-period swell is also expected to produce hazardous surf along north and east facing reefs of Yap. Hazardous surf, combined with the higher high tides with the new moon cycle, minor coastal inundation will be possible along northern and eastern shorelines at times of high tide over the next few days. Hazardous surf is also expected along north facing reefs of Palau , but coastal inundation is mainly a concern for Yap, when hazardous surf nears dangerous levels of 15 feet. High Surf Advisories remain in effect for Yap and Palau and a Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for Yap through Friday afternoon. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...Coastal Flood Warning until 5 AM ChST Thursday for GUZ001. Flood Watch through late tonight for GUZ001. High Surf Warning until 5 PM ChST Friday for GUZ001. Tropical Storm Warning for GUZ001. Typhoon Watch for GUZ001. MP...Flood Watch through late tonight for MPZ001>003. High Surf Warning until 5 PM ChST Friday for MPZ001>003. Coastal Flood Warning until 5 PM ChST Thursday for MPZ001. Typhoon Warning for MPZ001>003. Coastal Flood Warning until noon ChST Friday for MPZ002-003. Marianas Waters...Tropical Storm Warning for PMZ151. Typhoon Watch for PMZ151. Typhoon Warning for PMZ152>154. && $$ Marianas: Kleeschulte East Micronesia: Bowsher West Micronesia: Cruz Tropical: DeCou  882 FXUS63 KLBF 150829 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 329 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected across portions of southwest Nebraska through early Wednesday afternoon. Accumulations of 0.25-0.50" are locally possible. - Dry weather returns for Thursday, with a combination of warm, dry, and windy conditions expected. Critical fire weather concerns are possible, and a Fire Weather Watch is in effect for all of western and north central Nebraska. - Threat for light precipitation Friday/Friday night-mainly over western areas. - Additonal fire weather concerns Saturday through Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 329 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Currently, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continue across portions of western and central Nebraska. This is within a zone of strong FGEN aloft, with a weak H85 low centered over south central Nebraska. As this low slowly pushes east through late this morning, scattered shower development is expected to persist across portions of southwest and central Nebraska. The threat for a few thunderstorms also looks to persist, as steep lapse rates aloft will support at least meager instability. This should support at least locally heavier rainfall rates, though as a whole any accumulations remain to 0.10-0.25" for areas generally south of HWY 2. Where thunderstorms do occur, as much as 0.25-0.50" would be possible locally. No severe weather is expected with this activity, as the meager instability looks to overlap weak deep layer shear. As the low slowly begins to push off to the east by this afternoon, a surface trough will quickly move from west to east across the area. This will quickly usher in much drier air, as the surface trough reaches to near the HWY 83 corridor by late afternoon. Any lingering precipitation should quickly end from west to east by mid- afternoon, and dry conditions are then expected to continue into tomorrow. The much drier airmass will lead to elevated to near- critical fire concerns this afternoon, though winds look to be the main limiting factor at this time. Still, highs today reach into the lower 70s again, and push relative humidity into the teens for areas west of HWY 83 this afternoon. Lows tonight fall into the lower 30s, as the warm advection regime persists overnight. A much more concerning day is then on tap for tomorrow, as temperatures warm even further into the lower 80s across the entire area. This is as warm advection aloft pushes H85 temperatures towards the 90th percentile climo, or to ~21-23C. Unfortunately, these warm highs will combine with the very dry airmass in place, and push relative humidity values to as low as 10 to 15 percent for all of western and north central Nebraska. As deep diurnal mixing is achieved, southerly gusts of 30 to 35 miles per hour can be expected as well. The combination of the warm, very dry, and gusty conditions look to lead to critical fire weather concerns, and see no reason to make any changes to the inherited Fire Weather Watch. By early Friday morning, a cold front will begin to push into northern Nebraska, and should largely clear the area by sunrise. This will lead to a sharp wind shift from south to north with its passage. Strengthening cold advection will also lead to ample mechanical mixing, and a period of 40 to 45 mile per hour northerly wind gusts can be expected with frontal passage as well. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 329 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A strong cold front is expected to clear the forecast area by 12z Friday. Much colder air will push in behind the front Friday with highs struggling to reach the mid 50s in far southeastern portions of the forecast area. Across the northeastern Panhandle, highs will be around 40 degrees. For most of the day Friday, dry and cool conditions are expected. For locations further west including the eastern panhandle and northwestern Sandhills, weak mid level warm air advection will lead to an increased threat for light precipitation in these areas. During the day, thermal profiles in the west and northwest, will support snow, especially Friday morning and Friday evening into Friday night. Ground temps do remain warm in these areas, especially after the 80+ degree readings expected Thursday. With the warm ground temps, little to no snow accumulations are expected with this activity. Additionally, QPF's will be light with this system. The NBM precipitation ensembles only indicate a 10 to 20% chance of QPF exceeding 0.10" Friday/Friday night. Even if ground temps were much colder, snow accums would generally be an inch or less across northwestern portions of the of the forecast area. Forcing for precipitation will weaken Saturday morning as the upper level trough crosses central into eastern Nebraska. However steep lapse rates are indicated in the latest GFS soln Saturday afternoon over the western half of the forecast area. Add in some surface heating, and wouldn't be surprised if we saw some isolated to widely scattered showers Saturday afternoon. The NBM initialized with some isolated pops Saturday afternoon, and this seems reasonable and will be retained with this forecast package. Cold high pressure will settle into the Dakotas and Nebraska Saturday night. Clear skies, light winds and dry air will allow lows to reach into the middle 20s by Sunday morning which is 5 to 10 degrees below normal for this time of year. High pressure will slide east of the forecast area Sunday morning shifting winds to the south Sunday afternoon. Ridging aloft will build into the Intermountain west and warmer boundary layer air will push into the forecast area Sunday afternoon. Highs Sunday will reach into the upper 60s to middle 70s. Afternoon RH will reach 10 to 20 percent along with southwesterly winds of 10 to 15 MPH, will lead to elevated fire weather conditions. Even warmer temperatures will build into the area Monday and Tuesday with highs reaching into the 80s. ATTM these forecast high temps are at the 25th%ile of the NBM and may end up going even higher with subsequent forecasts. Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions appear likely Monday and Tuesday with min RH of 10 to 20 percent Monday and 15 to 25 percent Tuesday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1205M CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Overnight there will be continued threat for light rain showers across southwestern Nebraska, impacting the KLBF terminal through 12z Wednesday. Ceilings will range from 6000 to 10000 FT AGL overnight for the KLBF terminal. Look for skies to gradually clear mid morning with clear skies expected after 18z Wednesday. At the KVTN terminal, expect scattered to broken ceilings ranging from 10000 to 20000 FT AGL into the early morning hours. Skies will then gradually clear out with a few mid to high clouds expected to persist into Wednesday afternoon. Skies will then clear out Wednesday evening. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for NEZ204-206-208>210-219. && $$ SHORT TERM...Brown LONG TERM...Buttler AVIATION...Buttler  146 FXUS63 KDMX 150831 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 331 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slight Risk for severe storms expended more to the west today. All modes of severe weather possible, with a locally higher tornado threat along the I-80 corridor. - Enhanced Risk expanded for Friday, covering much of the eastern half of the state. - Much cooler over the weekend with a hard freeze likely in northern Iowa Saturday night. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 312 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Showers and storms continued overnight, with the surface warm front appearing to remain stalled diagonally across the center of the CWA, seen best by the Td discontinuity between sites such as KDSM and KBNW. Water vapor imagery showed the main circulation for today traversing off the Rockies and into the High Plains. A dry slot could be seen intruding into southeastern Nebraska, with the surface dry line residing in Kansas. Showers and isolated storms will continue to fester in the warm sector through at least the early morning hours, fueled in part by the interacting upper-level jet maxes. The southern jet max will round into the warm sector later this morning, the wind field below unidirectional and similarly enhanced. The dry slot will move into Iowa ahead of the cold front this morning, increasing capping and mid-level lapse rates. Trends have favored a lull in precipitation around midday, opening the opportunity for potential clearing ahead of the main severe window in the afternoon. MLCAPE values will approach 1500 J/kg. Deep-layer shear over 50kts will provide good ventilation for storms and favor supercells, but low-level shear lacks today, reducing SRH available for tornadoes. The exception will be near the triple point as localized backing of surface winds will elongate hodographs. 00z CAMs had consensus of a longer-lived UH streak following the path of the triple point, with neighboring super cells taking advantage of the NSE on the warm front. This will be the region where the threat for tornadoes is the highest, and have collaborated with SPC to add in a 5% tornado risk area, focused along and near the I-80 corridor. A line of storms will form along the cold front in southern Iowa and pose a wind threat, although capping will allow for discrete modes to start, adding in large hail and isolated tornadoes to the mix. Cold front initiation will begin near the I-35 corridor. Thunderstorms will follow the departure of the surface low and be fueled mainly by the upper-level trough. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 1239 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 On Thursday a weak ridge will move through Iowa, providing a most welcome respite in the form of a dry, mostly sunny, and mild day with highs roughly in the 75-80 degree range and modest breezes. By Thursday night however, an even deeper longitudinal 500 MB trough will be moving into the Rockies, heralding more active weather to end the week. A surface cyclone will develop in the Southern High Plains with a long inverted trough and sharp baroclinic zone extending northeastward across the Midwest. By Friday morning this front will span from central Kansas, across northwestern Iowa, and into western Wisconsin. Destabilization will occur ahead of the front during the day Friday, and by the afternoon CAPE of 1500-2500 J/KG is likely in at least parts of our area, mainly the southern half. Deep-layer shear will be fairly modest and mostly in the form of speed shear, however the strong dynamic forcing ahead of the approaching trough, convergence along the front, and increasing instability will combine with this shear to be more than sufficient to support severe weather potential Friday afternoon and evening, as outlined by SPC outlooks. The storm system will push quickly through Friday night and clear us out, though there may be some light wraparound precipitation in our northern counties lingering into Saturday as the final lobe of the 500 MB trough moves by. With much colder air surging in behind the late Friday front and temperatures expected to fall into the 30s across much of our area by early Saturday, a few flakes of snow cannot be ruled out in northern Iowa but no real accumulation or impact would be expected. Highs on Saturday will be nearly 30 degrees cooler than on Friday, ranging in the mid-40s to mid-50s, then falling even further Saturday night into Sunday morning with lows in the upper 20s to mid-30s across Iowa resulting in a frost/freeze in many areas. The good news is this cooler weather will be short- lived, as a ridging pattern sets up in the first half of next week supporting a gradual warming trend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1242 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Storms have focused more to the south, affecting KDSM the most in the next 6 hours. Monitoring damaging wind potential upstream as CSQ gusted over 50kts. In other storms, heavy rain and hail up to 1" diameter possible. Severe weather chances decrease after 08z, but MVFR cigs will increase in coverage, lifting into northern Iowa with showers towards the morning. Prob30 groups remain through the morning as showers and storms will be common in the central and east. Midday hours around 18z have begun to trend dry before severe storms return 20z to 00z. Enough confidence in storm timing to put in a prevailing group of TSRA in some sites. All modes of severe weather will be possible in that time frame, along with MVFR cigs and potentially IFR vsbys from rainfall. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 119 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Multiple rounds of seasonally moderate to heavy rain this week will lead to renewed flooding concerns. Concerns will include possible renewed or additional river flooding as well as flash flooding. Output from the GFS- and NBM-forced medium-range National Water Model (NWM) and the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System (HEFS) suggest the most likely scenario will be moderate to significant within-bank rises on many rivers and streams across the CWA over the next week, especially across the southeast half. Some locations may see minor river flooding as well. These rises will be due to the additive effect of multiple rounds of rainfall. If rainfall is higher than presently forecast then the risk of several locations seeing minor flooding and a few locations seeing moderate flooding will increase. Flash flooding is less of a concern than river flooding, however the risk is nonzero. The additive effect of rain events will result in a slightly higher risk of flash flooding from Friday into Saturday. The most likely scenario through the end of this week will be ponding of water or low-end flash flooding especially in urban areas or areas that receive repeated heavy rainfall over a relatively short time period. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Jimenez LONG TERM...Lee AVIATION...Jimenez HYDROLOGY...Zogg  446 FXUS65 KPIH 150832 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 232 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Impactful Frontal Passage: A cold front will sweep through the region tonight, causing snow levels to plummet to valley floors by Thursday morning. - Winter Weather Headlines: Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for the central mountains, the Island Park area, and the Bear River Range, where the heaviest snow is expected. - Wind Advisory Today: Strong winds will develop this afternoon, with an advisory in effect for the Arco Desert and Lemhi Highlands. - Hard Freeze Potential: A Freeze Watch has been issued for the Magic Valley, Snake Plain, Arco Desert and Shoshone zones for Friday morning with a widespread Hard Freeze looking likely. - Strong Warming Trend: Following the midweek cold snap, a significant warm-up is forecast for the weekend, with temperatures rising well above seasonal norms by Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 224 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 An active weather period is now underway across Eastern Idaho as a robust Pacific system moves inland. Early morning satellite imagery captures an increase in cloud cover, with precipitation expected to overspread the central mountains within the next few hours before expanding across the remainder of the region throughout the day. Ahead of the cold front, southwesterly flow will tighten the pressure gradient, causing winds to reach Advisory levels across the Arco Desert and Lemhi Highlands. Elsewhere, breezy conditions will prevail with gusts generally holding in the 20 to 25 mph range. Precipitation today will largely manifest as rain below 6,500 feet, while the higher terrain begins to see light snow accumulations. The primary forecast concern arrives tonight into early Thursday morning as a potent cold front blasts through Eastern Idaho. This transition will trigger a drastic drop in snow levels, bringing a changeover from rain to snow even for the lowest valley floors. Perhaps the most notable development in recent model data is a strong signal for a convergence band of precipitation to develop over the Snake Plain Thursday evening. This feature has resulted in an upward adjustment of forecast snowfall totals for the Snake Plain and surrounding areas. Meanwhile, Winter Weather Advisories continue for the higher terrain of the central mountains and eastern highlands, where travel impacts are most likely. As the system exits to the east on Friday, the focus shifts to a significant hard freeze. A Freeze Watch has been issued for the growing regions of Eastern Idaho to account for the frigid air mass settling over the area Friday morning. This will be particularly impactful for any early-season blossoms or crops that have emerged during recent warm spells. The outlook for the weekend is much more favorable, as high pressure builds back over the Intermountain West. A drastic warm-up is forecast to begin Saturday, with temperatures climbing well above seasonal normals by Sunday and continuing into early next week. Conditions should remain dry through the weekend before low-end precipitation chances return late Monday or Tuesday. While another weather system is poised to impact the area early next week, model guidance remains split on the timing and intensity, leaving significant uncertainty in the long-range forecast. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1000 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A few mid to high level clouds will drift through overnight. Conditions worsening quickly tomorrow with light precipitation arriving in the morning. SUN will likely see IFR/MVFR conditions for a time tomorrow morning with some improvement by afternoon. Elsewhere, mainly looking at vfr conditions but windy. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for IDZ051>055. Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ052-067. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM MDT Friday for IDZ060-066. Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT Thursday for IDZ071>074. && $$ DISCUSSION...McKaughan AVIATION...13  161 FXUS65 KFGZ 150834 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 134 AM MST Wed Apr 15 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Look for pleasant weather today. Another round of windy conditions is expected Thursday, followed by cooler temperatures Friday as a weather system passes to our north. The weekend looks dry with warmer daytime temperatures and well below normal morning lows. && .DISCUSSION...Dry air will spread across northern Arizona today behind the most recent trough. Pressure gradients will be much weaker supporting southwest to west winds of 5-15 mph. The air mass will be milder with temperatures ranging near seasonal averages. For Thursday through Friday...A fast moving shortwave trough will brush northern Arizona. The main impact will be a return to stronger winds. Recent model forecasts have shifted the shortwave a bit further north so winds likely won't be quite as strong as previously indicated, but still quite uncomfortable. On Thursday, ahead of the trough axis, winds will become southwest at 15-25 mph gusting to 30-40 mph. Winds will remain gusty Thursday night but gradually weaken and shift to a west to northwest direction by early Friday as the trough axis moves eastward. Friday will see west to northwest winds at 5-15 mph gusting to 25 mph across much of the area. However, east of a Winslow to Four Corners line winds at 15-25 mph gusting to 30-40 mph will persist. With the northward shift of the trough the the chances for even an isolated shower along the Arizona/Utah border are near zero. From Saturday into early next week...A drier northeast to east flow will develop Friday night through Saturday. In wind protected locations above 6,500 feet strong radiational cooling will present the potential for low temperatures in the upper teens to mid 20s Saturday morning. Otherwise, look for northeast to east winds at 5-15 mph across much of the area. However, along and south of the Mogollon Rim from late Friday through early Sunday, where winds tend to funnel in northeast flow, gusts to 25 mph are forecast. Northeast winds will likely be short-lived as another trough will approach Arizona during the day Sunday. As a result, look for gusty south to southwest winds to return on Sunday into early next week with warming temperatures both day and night. && .AVIATION...Wednesday 15/06Z through Thursday 16/06Z...VFR conditions with light and variable winds through 18Z, then becoming SW-W 5-15 kts. OUTLOOK...Thursday 16/06Z through Saturday 18/06Z...VFR conditions. SW winds 15-25 kts with gusts to 30-40 kts on Thursday, staying locally gusty Thursday night. Winds become W-NW 10-20 kts with gusts 20-30 kts on Friday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Thursday...Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures. Look for west to southwest winds at 5-15 mph today, increasing to 15-25 mph gusting to 30-45 mph on Thursday. Minimum RH values 10-20% each day. Friday through Sunday...Dry through the period. Northwest to west winds at 10-20 mph gusting to 25-35 mph on Friday becoming northeast to east at 5-15 mph with local gusts to 25 mph on Saturday. Sunday will see south winds at 10-25 mph develop as a Pacific low approaches Arizona. Minimum RH of 10-20% is forecast for Friday turning a bit drier on Saturday at 5-15%, then jumping back to 10- 20% on Sunday in response to the approaching low. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...McCollum AVIATION...Meola FIRE WEATHER...Lewandowski For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff  799 FXUS63 KFSD 150834 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 334 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy and locally dense fog is developing early this morning north of I-90. Visibility may fall below one mile at times. - Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms continue through this evening, mainly focused across northwestern Iowa and adjacent areas in eastern Nebraska and extreme southeastern South Dakota. - An isolated strong to severe storm is possible this afternoon and evening along/south of a line from Norfolk, Nebraska to Spencer, Iowa. Highest risk is from 3 to 7 PM. If a stronger storm can develop, main threats are hail to ping pong ball size (1.5 inches) and wind gusts to 60 mph. A tornado cannot be ruled out. - Unseasonably warm temperatures, very low humidity, and breezy southwest wind gusts lead to near critical to critical fire danger Thursday. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued along/west of I-29. Additional fire concerns possible Friday but confidence is low. - A pattern shift leads to a brief cool down late this week into the weekend with continued precipitation chances. Uncertainty remains, but an isolated strong to severe storm is possible again Friday. Much colder air could lead to wintry precipitation, although timing and type remain uncertain. && .UPDATE... Issued at 333 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Calm to light and variable winds are leading to another morning of patchy fog, including locally dense fog, mainly north of I-90 where skies have cleared. Fog should lift through the mid morning hours. Expect any visibility below 1/2 miles to be limited in scope, so not anticipating any headlines. But with guidance handling this a bit poorly, will keep an eye on trends. For later today, SPC Day 1 outlook has shifted both the Marginal and Slight risks (levels 1 and 2 of 5, respectively) back west - with the Marginal into northeastern NE and northeastern IA and the Slight risk southeast of Sloan to Storm Lake line. Some uncertainty in severe risk depending on how far north the lower level front will lift through the day and if there is any morning convection across the area. Regardless, shear values and mid level lapse rates still appear supportive of large hail to ping pong ball size. Damaging wind gusts to 60 mph are also possible with stronger storms. Biggest question will be the instability, with most deterministic guidance limiting MUCAPE to around 1000 J/kg or less, which would temper the severe potential. A tornado cannot be ruled out if the boundary can sneak back into our area with low level shear and increased instability tied to that front. Greatest risk looks to be from 3 to 7 PM. CAMs do overall develop storms across NE and move them northeast into our area during this time. Any storm across the area will be capable of lightning, so keep an eye on the forecast if you have outdoor plans today/tonight. Another change to the forecast in the relatively shorter term was the issuance of a Fire Weather Watch for areas along and west of I- 29 for Thursday afternoon and evening. More details are below in the Fire Weather Section of this discussion, but breezy winds and very low humidity with warmer temperatures combine for near critical to critical fire conditions. Thursday is another day to use extreme caution to prevent fire start. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 233 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Radar is picking up on a stripe of showers extending from roughly Marshall, MN to Gregory, SD this afternoon, but most of this will not be reaching the ground due high cloud heights and dry air beneath said clouds. Scattered showers and storms will continue to develop off to our south and west over the next hour or so where the greater surface moisture is. Can't entirely rule out an elevated thunderstorm over northwest Iowa as soundings show a few hundred J/kg of CAPE lifted from around 750 mb this afternoon, but likely not enough for severe weather. However, small hail would be possible with mid level lapse rates around 7-7.5 C/km and 50-60 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear if a thunderstorm can develop. A boundary will be lifting northward across the region late tonight into Wednesday morning. The NAMNest is the fastest with this boundary arrival, bringing in storms to the Highway 20 corridor just before sunrise Wednesday, but this remains an outlier. What's more likely to occur is showers and storms not developing until the afternoon as the boundary continues drifting northward and instability increases due to daytime heating. Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible given mid level lapse rates greater than 8 C/km and bulk shear in the 45-55 kt range. The main threat with any of these afternoon storms would be large hail up to ping pong ball in size followed by damaging wind gusts to 60 mph. If we do get morning showers or storms tomorrow, then that may limit the ability for the atmosphere to recover in the afternoon, thus less afternoon instability. The best chance of an isolated severe storm Wednesday afternoon will be roughly along and east of a Spencer to Sioux City line. Any storms will push east of the area heading into Wednesday evening as the surface low and upper wave move out of the area. We are dry for Thursday, but this may come with the potential for critical fire danger in parts of the area. Southwesterly winds look to return for areas mainly along and west of I-29, which will help drop relative humidity values down to 25% and below Thursday afternoon. With temperatures in the 80s and winds gusting to 25 to 30 mph, a very high fire danger can be expected for most of the area. Uncertainty remains on how strong the winds will get and how far east these stronger winds make it, and if the grasses are starting to green up enough to prevent more widespread fire weather concerns. With that, held off on fire weather headlines for now until certainty grows. The main western US trough that has been helping to send all these impulses across the area over the past couple of days will finally move eastward heading into Friday, pushing a strong cold front into the area. Ahead of the front, warm and moister air will be favorable for thunderstorms, some of which could be strong to severe mainly east of I-29. Timing of the cold front will play a role in how much coverage of storms can be expected, with a faster passage meaning a lower threat and a slower passage leading to a greater threat of stronger storms. One thing is for more certain is the colder air that will follow this system, with lows expected to drop below freezing for most of the area by Saturday morning. This means some rain with this system may at least briefly turn to snow as the precipitation exits the area, but confidence is very low on this potential. Either way, expect much cooler temperatures heading into the Friday night through Sunday morning time frame. After this push of colder air, ridging aloft looks to return and thus a quick warming trend looks possible into early next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1228 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Mainly VFR conditions will persist this TAF period. While mostly clear conditions persist this evening, can't rule out additional showers to start the day on Wednesday especially across the Highway-20 corridor. Otherwise, additional showers and storms will be possible by Wednesday afternoon near KSUX. Added in a PROB30 group for the increased probabilities. Lastly, light and variable winds tonight will become light southerly winds during the day on Wednesday to end the TAF period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 333 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Although humidity values today fall to below 25% west of the James River, light southerly winds preclude any widespread concerns. Minimum RH values increase further east with light winds and scattered shower/storm chances, widespread elevated fire danger is not expected today. Attention turns to Thursday with temperatures climbing into the 80s. A dry day is expected, and much drier air moves into the region leading to minimum humidity values as low as 15% and only as high as around 30%. These factors along with strong southwesterly winds gusting to around 30 mph will lead to near critical to critical fire conditions as fuels remain dry. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued along and west of I-29 from noon to 8 PM, where the strongest winds and lowest humidity coincide. Confidence is low in the potential for near critical fire conditions Friday due to a cold front moving through Thursday into Friday. This timing impacts temperatures and there may be some showers with some uncertainty in the precipitation type. Northwesterly winds on Friday will be stronger than Thursday, gusting to around 40 mph. However, RH values are expected to be near or exceed 35%, which with cooler temperatures and precipitation, may temper widespread concerns. Breezy and cooler weather Saturday may lead to elevated concerns, but confidence is low. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for SDZ038>040-050-052>071. MN...None. IA...None. NE...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for NEZ013-014. && $$ UPDATE...SG DISCUSSION...Samet AVIATION...05 FIRE WEATHER...SG  885 FXUS66 KOTX 150840 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 140 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Valley rain, mountain snow, and gusty winds today. - Morning lows near to below freezing through Friday. - Drier and more seasonal temperatures Friday and Saturday. && .SYNOPSIS... A cold front passage this morning will bring lowland rain, mountain snow, and breezy to windy conditions. Snowy travel is expected over the mountain passes this morning. Overnight lows will be cold with near to below freezing temperatures. Warmer and drier conditions return Friday into Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Today-tonight: A cold core upper-level low will wobble into the region delivering windy conditions, cooler temperatures, and periods of rain/snow. A majority of the rain will fall along the leading cold front which has recently crossed over the Olympics and will be sliding through INW overnight into early Wednesday morning. Once the front moves through, the threat for steady precipitation will rapidly end with drier post frontal air moving in. Precipitable water values start off nearly 150% of normal and lower to 50% of normal. Snow levels will also be falling rapidly with snow mixing with rain at times on the back edge of the steadier precipitation though there is little confidence for any snow accumulations in the lowlands. In the mountains, it will be a different story. Snow is already falling over the mountain passes with accumulations noted on Stevens and Snoqualmie Passes. Cams indicate snow also falling on Sherman and Lookout Passes. Winter weather advisories and storm warnings are in place through Wednesday morning to address these concerns for winter travel conditions. Lapse rates will steepen behind the cold front with embedded impulses bringing a renewed threat for showers Wednesday afternoon into the evening. These will likely fall as snow and/or graupel. With the low-levels drying out, cloud basis will be high with minimal accumulations. Would not rule out a dusting to few tenths in the mountains. Today will be windy with persistent westerly winds of 10-25 mph and gusts 30-35 mph. Local gusts to 40 mph are expected on the higher ridgetops and in our wind prone areas of the Waterville Plateau and foothills of the Blue Mountains. Skies will clear overnight for much of Central and northern WA and partially for North Idaho. The cooler and drier air mass will result in chilly overnight lows with many areas reaching freezing or colder. Our low elevation zones in the Western Columbia Basin and Wenatchee Area have reached their climatological growing season and have freeze watches in place. Latest forecast numbers range from 30 to 34F with the biggest uncertainty coming from a light steady wind of 5-11 mph overnight. Will this be enough to keep temperatures from reaching the freezing mark? Thinking it will vary based on location with some areas sheltered from the wind dipping near 29-30F and others remaining closer to 34F. Consequently, freeze warnings have been issued for Thursday morning. Thursday-Friday: A shortwave ridge of high pressure builds over the coast on Thursday then slides inland on Friday. Overall, weather impacts Thursday and Friday will be low. Scattered light snow showers pinwheeling around the backside of the departing low will pass through North Idaho on Thursday with a 30% chance for an additional inch at Lookout Pass. Much of Central and Eastern WA will be sunny and dry but with continued breeziness as west to northwest winds continue to be drawn into the departing low. Wind speeds of 10-15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph will be common around Wenatchee, Entiat, Waterville, Ephrata, Moses Lake, Pullman, and Pomeroy. Temperatures will once again fall into the upper 20s and lower 30s Thursday night into Friday morning with potential for freeze warnings to be extended for an additional day. High temperatures will only warm into the 50s to lower 60s, roughly 5-8 degrees below 30-year averages. Saturday-Tuesday: There is good agreement of another low pressure system dropping out the Gulf of AK and into the Western US. There is moderate to high confidence for mild and dry conditions on Saturday. Uncertainty in the forecast starts Sunday and continues into early next with uncertainty with the track of the low into the Western US. It is close to a 50/50 split in the ensembles for the low to dive well south of the INW leaving it mild and dry while the other 50 have the low in closer proximity with rain and mountain snow showers. NBM is carrying 20-25% precipitation chances given the ensemble members that support the showery regime. This will not be as cold as the current system resulting in higher snow levels and mostly rain for the lowlands if any at all. /sb && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: A strong cold front is approaching the region and recently crossed the Olympic Mountains. Ahead of this front, conditions are breezy with gusts around 20kts at KGEG and KMWH along with -RA over the Idaho Panhandle and NE WA. As the front crosses east of the Cascades 09-15z...rain will increase and fill in across Idaho and eastern third of WA. HREF has a 70% chance for MVFR cigs and vis at KGEG, KSFF, KCOE, and KPUW and 30% chance at KLWS. Snow levels will lower with the front and increasing precipitation intensities with 30-40% chance for rain/snow mix at KPUW, KGEG, KCOE and very low chances for any accumulations with temperatures well above freezing. Drier air will filter into the region behind the front will swift return to VFR skies. Additional showers will develop from high based clouds in the afternoon falling as mix of rain/snow but little to no probabilities for conditions to lower below VFR. The main issue in the post frontal air mass will be gusty winds of 25-30kts. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Main uncertainty is exact timing of rain filling back in ahead of the cold front 6-9z then exactly how low cigs and vis will fall with the heart of the precipitaiton and frontal passage. Cigs could fall as low as 900 ft AGL but moderate to high confidence for these lower cigs to be brief and less than 2 hours. There is low confidence for the post frontal rain/snow showers given the higher cloud bases and dry air intrusion. /sb ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 50 29 51 29 54 32 / 80 20 20 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 47 28 49 29 52 30 / 90 40 40 10 0 0 Pullman 45 29 45 30 50 31 / 100 40 40 0 10 0 Lewiston 50 34 51 32 55 33 / 100 40 20 0 0 0 Colville 51 27 55 27 58 28 / 60 30 20 0 0 0 Sandpoint 45 29 46 29 50 30 / 90 60 70 10 20 0 Kellogg 42 27 43 27 47 28 / 100 60 80 20 30 0 Moses Lake 55 30 59 31 60 35 / 20 10 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 51 33 55 34 60 38 / 20 10 0 0 0 0 Omak 53 31 58 32 61 35 / 20 10 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM PDT Thursday for Moses Lake Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Wenatchee Area. Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM PDT early this morning for Okanogan Highlands. Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM PDT early this morning for Western Chelan County. ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for Central Panhandle Mountains. && $$  754 FXUS63 KFSD 150840 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 340 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy and locally dense fog is developing early this morning north of I-90. Visibility may fall below one mile at times. - Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms continue through this evening, mainly focused across northwestern Iowa and adjacent areas in eastern Nebraska and extreme southeastern South Dakota. - An isolated strong to severe storm is possible this afternoon and evening along/south of a line from Norfolk, Nebraska to Spencer, Iowa. Highest risk is from 3 to 7 PM. If a stronger storm can develop, main threats are hail to ping pong ball size (1.5 inches) and wind gusts to 60 mph. A tornado cannot be ruled out. - Unseasonably warm temperatures, very low humidity, and breezy southwest wind gusts lead to near critical to critical fire danger Thursday. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued along/west of I-29. Additional fire concerns possible Friday but confidence is low. - A pattern shift leads to a brief cool down late this week into the weekend with continued precipitation chances. Uncertainty remains, but an isolated strong to severe storm is possible again Friday. Much colder air could lead to wintry precipitation, although timing and type remain uncertain. && .UPDATE... Issued at 339 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Calm to light and variable winds are leading to another morning of patchy fog, including locally dense fog, mainly north of I-90 where skies have cleared. Fog should lift through the mid morning hours. Expect any visibility below 1/2 miles to be limited in scope, so not anticipating any headlines. But with guidance handling this a bit poorly, will keep an eye on trends. Showers and isolated storms continue to move north from NE this morning, but most areas are struggling to see precipitation reach the ground. For later today, SPC Day 1 outlook has shifted both the Marginal and Slight risks (levels 1 and 2 of 5, respectively) back west - with the Marginal into northeastern NE and northeastern IA and the Slight risk southeast of Sloan to Storm Lake line. Some uncertainty in severe risk depending on how far north the lower level front will lift through the day and if there is any morning convection across the area. Regardless, shear values and mid level lapse rates still appear supportive of large hail to ping pong ball size. Damaging wind gusts to 60 mph are also possible with stronger storms. Biggest question will be the instability, with most deterministic guidance limiting MUCAPE to around 1000 J/kg or less, which would temper the severe potential. A tornado cannot be ruled out if the boundary can sneak back into our area with low level shear and increased instability tied to that front. Greatest risk looks to be from 3 to 7 PM. CAMs do overall develop storms across NE and move them northeast into our area during this time. Any storm across the area will be capable of lightning, so keep an eye on the forecast if you have outdoor plans today/tonight. Another change to the forecast in the relatively shorter term was the issuance of a Fire Weather Watch for areas along and west of I- 29 for Thursday afternoon and evening. More details are below in the Fire Weather Section of this discussion, but breezy winds and very low humidity with warmer temperatures combine for near critical to critical fire conditions. Thursday is another day to use extreme caution to prevent fire start. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 233 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Radar is picking up on a stripe of showers extending from roughly Marshall, MN to Gregory, SD this afternoon, but most of this will not be reaching the ground due high cloud heights and dry air beneath said clouds. Scattered showers and storms will continue to develop off to our south and west over the next hour or so where the greater surface moisture is. Can't entirely rule out an elevated thunderstorm over northwest Iowa as soundings show a few hundred J/kg of CAPE lifted from around 750 mb this afternoon, but likely not enough for severe weather. However, small hail would be possible with mid level lapse rates around 7-7.5 C/km and 50-60 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear if a thunderstorm can develop. A boundary will be lifting northward across the region late tonight into Wednesday morning. The NAMNest is the fastest with this boundary arrival, bringing in storms to the Highway 20 corridor just before sunrise Wednesday, but this remains an outlier. What's more likely to occur is showers and storms not developing until the afternoon as the boundary continues drifting northward and instability increases due to daytime heating. Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible given mid level lapse rates greater than 8 C/km and bulk shear in the 45-55 kt range. The main threat with any of these afternoon storms would be large hail up to ping pong ball in size followed by damaging wind gusts to 60 mph. If we do get morning showers or storms tomorrow, then that may limit the ability for the atmosphere to recover in the afternoon, thus less afternoon instability. The best chance of an isolated severe storm Wednesday afternoon will be roughly along and east of a Spencer to Sioux City line. Any storms will push east of the area heading into Wednesday evening as the surface low and upper wave move out of the area. We are dry for Thursday, but this may come with the potential for critical fire danger in parts of the area. Southwesterly winds look to return for areas mainly along and west of I-29, which will help drop relative humidity values down to 25% and below Thursday afternoon. With temperatures in the 80s and winds gusting to 25 to 30 mph, a very high fire danger can be expected for most of the area. Uncertainty remains on how strong the winds will get and how far east these stronger winds make it, and if the grasses are starting to green up enough to prevent more widespread fire weather concerns. With that, held off on fire weather headlines for now until certainty grows. The main western US trough that has been helping to send all these impulses across the area over the past couple of days will finally move eastward heading into Friday, pushing a strong cold front into the area. Ahead of the front, warm and moister air will be favorable for thunderstorms, some of which could be strong to severe mainly east of I-29. Timing of the cold front will play a role in how much coverage of storms can be expected, with a faster passage meaning a lower threat and a slower passage leading to a greater threat of stronger storms. One thing is for more certain is the colder air that will follow this system, with lows expected to drop below freezing for most of the area by Saturday morning. This means some rain with this system may at least briefly turn to snow as the precipitation exits the area, but confidence is very low on this potential. Either way, expect much cooler temperatures heading into the Friday night through Sunday morning time frame. After this push of colder air, ridging aloft looks to return and thus a quick warming trend looks possible into early next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1228 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Mainly VFR conditions will persist this TAF period. While mostly clear conditions persist this evening, can't rule out additional showers to start the day on Wednesday especially across the Highway-20 corridor. Otherwise, additional showers and storms will be possible by Wednesday afternoon near KSUX. Added in a PROB30 group for the increased probabilities. Lastly, light and variable winds tonight will become light southerly winds during the day on Wednesday to end the TAF period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 333 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Although humidity values today fall to below 25% west of the James River, light southerly winds preclude any widespread concerns. Minimum RH values increase further east with light winds and scattered shower/storm chances, widespread elevated fire danger is not expected today. Attention turns to Thursday with temperatures climbing into the 80s. A dry day is expected, and much drier air moves into the region leading to minimum humidity values as low as 15% and only as high as around 30%. These factors along with strong southwesterly winds gusting to around 30 mph will lead to near critical to critical fire conditions as fuels remain dry. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued along and west of I-29 from noon to 8 PM, where the strongest winds and lowest humidity coincide. Confidence is low in the potential for near critical fire conditions Friday due to a cold front moving through Thursday into Friday. This timing impacts temperatures and there may be some showers with some uncertainty in the precipitation type. Northwesterly winds on Friday will be stronger than Thursday, gusting to around 40 mph. However, RH values are expected to be near or exceed 35%, which with cooler temperatures and precipitation, may temper widespread concerns. Breezy and cooler weather Saturday may lead to elevated concerns, but confidence is low. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for SDZ038>040-050-052>071. MN...None. IA...None. NE...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for NEZ013-014. && $$ UPDATE...SG DISCUSSION...Samet AVIATION...05 FIRE WEATHER...SG  417 FXUS63 KGLD 150842 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 242 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy (~15-25 mph) S to SW winds and marginally critical fire weather possible over portions of the area on Thursday. - A strong cold front Friday afternoon may drop temperatures below freezing overnight Friday and Saturday. Light snowfall may occur behind the front as well. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 240 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Today-Tonight: A few showers are possible in far northern portions of the area today as shortwave energy emerging from the Colorado Front Range early this morning progresses eastward across northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska. Simulated reflectivity forecasts from current and recent (00-06Z) runs of the HRRR have, thus far (as of 08Z), verified well with radar and observational data/trends over and upstream of the Goodland CWA this morning. The HRRR suggests that showers assoc/w the upper wave traversing the region today will be (1) isolated to scattered in nature, (2) largely confined north of Hwy 36 and (3) largely occur prior to ~18Z. Expect relatively cooler temperatures with highs in the lower 70's and weakening WNW to W winds this afternoon, with overnight (Thu morning) lows in the mid 30's to lower 40's. A modest upper level ridge will build over the Central Plains late tonight and early Thu as shortwave energy exits the region / progresses east toward the MS River Valley. Thursday: With ridging aloft, expect a warming trend, and modest (~15-25 mph) S to SW winds on the eastern periphery of a broad lee trough over eastern CO and far western KS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 218 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A high amplitude shortwave upper-level trough looks to be making its way across the Rocky Mountains beginning Friday morning, with a modest 50-70 kt jet streak at 500-mb across the Four-Corners Region. A broad surface low pressure is favored to already exist from the Midwest back into Eastern Colorado in association with these upper- level features, and may continue to deepen throughout the day, particularly across portions of the Central and South-Central High Plains where lee cyclogenesis is favored. A strong cold front looks to begin traversing the forecast region sometime Friday afternoon, though there are some issues as to the exact timing. This matters because critical fire weather conditions may be experienced ahead of the cold front. Current forecast guidance shows mid to upper-teen relative humidities (RH) across portions of East-Central Colorado and West-Central Kansas, with wind gusts in the 25-40 mph range possible during the early to mid-afternoon. Critical fire weather conditions could be mitigated with a faster progression of the cold front, or enhanced by a slower progression. LREF guidance currently shows a large amount of variance in wind direction across portions of Northwest Kansas and Eastern Colorado Friday morning, highlighting issues regarding the front's timing. Around 60% of GEFS and EC members show a scenario where the cold front progresses faster, and thus, would mitigate the critical fire weather risk. LREF guidance would seem to support this solution, suggesting at best a 1 in 3 chance for RH values to meet critical fire weather criteria across portions of Western Kansas, and less for the rest of the region. Confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed Friday afternoon sits at around 5%. Friday evening may be accompanied by a freeze overnight behind the cold front, in addition to an opportunity for snowfall. Lows are currently forecast in the lower-20s to lower-30s Friday night across the region, with as high as a 60% chance for light snowfall across portions of Northeastern Colorado and far Southwest Nebraska. NBM guidance suggests over a 40% chance across this zone that the snowfall is measurable (>0.1 inches). Reduced visibilities due to blowing snow may also be experienced, as NBM guidance indicates that sustained winds over 25 mph can't be ruled out. Cooler conditions could last into Saturday, with highs forecast in the mid-50s to lower-60s. Critical fire weather conditions may once again be experienced across portions of Eastern Colorado and West-Central Kansas, where RH values are forecast in the mid to upper-teens, and wind gusts in the 25-40 mph range. NBM guidance suggests a 60-80% chance for wind gusts to meet criteria for critical fire weather conditions across this zone, with LREF guidance giving RH values a 50-70% chance. Even so, confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed across this zone is only about 5% due to the strength and duration of the cold front from Friday into Saturday, which may keep RH values a bit more elevated. While deterministic model guidance is a lot more divergent past Sunday morning, GEFS and EC 500-mb height mean-spread guidance suggests ridging is favored across the forecast region Sunday morning through the end of the period. Conditions look to be warm and dry, with highs in the 70s on Sunday, and 80s Monday and Tuesday. RH values continue to be forecast on the lower end, with upper single-digits to lower-teens on Sunday, and low to mid-teens Monday and Tuesday. Critical fire weather conditions may be experienced all three days, though confidence decreases for Monday and Tuesday due to timing issues of a slow- moving upper-level trough from the west. Sunday's risk seems highest, as LREF guidance suggests a 3 in 4 chance for RH values to meet criteria across most of the area, with NBM guidance yielding over 50% probabilities for wind gusts to meet criteria. Confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed Sunday is around 10%. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1200 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 GLD: Aside from a potential for borderline MVFR ceilings (3,000-4,000 ft AGL) during the morning, mainly ~14-18Z, VFR conditions will otherwise prevail through the TAF period. Expect NW winds ~15-20 knots through late morning.. with winds backing to the WNW and decreasing to 10-15 knots during the mid-late afternoon. Winds will further back to the W or WSW and decrease to 5-10 knots around sunset. MCK: Aside from a potential for borderline MVFR ceilings (3,000-4,000 ft AGL) during the morning, mainly ~14-18Z, VFR conditions will otherwise prevail through the TAF period. NNW to NW winds at 10-15 knots will back to the WNW or W and decrease to 5-10 knots during the around sunset. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Vincent LONG TERM...Davis AVIATION...Vincent  178 FXUS63 KLOT 150843 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 343 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Additional waves of showers and thunderstorms are expected early this morning through tonight. Some could be severe and produce heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding. - A brief break in the pattern is expected late Thursday into the day on Friday before another storm system arrives Friday evening into early Saturday. - Cooler air arrives into early next week could bring frost/freeze concerns early Sunday and Monday mornings. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 343 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Through Tonight: An elongated axis of elevated showers and thunderstorms continues early this morning from southeast Nebraska through southern Michigan. Some of these storms have taken advantage of a small area of steeper mid-level lapse rates amidst strong effective shear to 50 kt and managed to produce severe hail. Isolated strong to severe storms will remain possible through early this morning favoring areas near and north of I-80. There remains a fair amount of uncertainty with respect to how convective trends unfold the remainder of the day owing to the potential for multiple "waves" of showers and storms. Each model and their respective runs vary on the details, including timing and placement of the different bands of storms and how they interact with each other (outflows, cold pools, etc.). It does appear that after this initial round of stronger storms early this mornings sags farther east and southeast there may be a temporary decrease in the thunderstorm coverage during the rest of the morning hours when lapse rates here locally decrease. Once we get into the afternoon hours the threat of severe weather increases again as lapse rates steepen allowing instability to quickly build over the area (MLCAPE of 2000+ J/kg) amidst ample deep layer shear. The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded the rest of the area to a Level 2 of 5 severe thunderstorm risk which seems appropriate, with the primary hazard being damaging wind gusts with any embedded bowing segments with a locally higher hail threat across northern/northwest Illinois, including the Rockford area where embedded supercells or semi-discrete storm mode can't be ruled out. Another concern for today is the potential for flash flooding as additional waves of heavy rainfall potentially occur over the same areas. Will likely end up needing to extend the current Flood Watch in duration and area to account for this. Thursday: A compact shortwave and associated weak surface low/MCV is forecast to move across or near the area during the day on Thursday which will likely be accompanied by additional scattered showers and non-severe thunderstorms. Once that moves off to the east a very brief break in the wet and stormy pattern is expected Thursday night through the day on Friday. Temperatures on Thursday will also end up cooler (albeit still unseasonably warm) with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s, coolest across far northeast Illinois. Friday - Saturday: Strong southerly warm and moist convection will return into the day on Friday ahead of an approaching cold front. This boundary is expected to progress across the area sometime late Friday into early Saturday morning paired with a line of thunderstorms, some of which could be severe. Suspect that less favorable diurnal timing of any lingering storms into the morning on Saturday may limit the overall severe threat here locally before storms reintensify east of the area into the rest of the day. Stay tuned! Saturday night onward: In the wake of the early Saturday cold front, a much colder airmass (relative to what we have had over the past several days) will settle into the region over the weekend. Overnight low temperatures may drop into the 30s, with some near to sub- freezing temperatures possible across interior northern Illinois. Lighter winds in place Sunday night may allow for frost development outside of Chicago and will be something for those with agricultural interests to monitor over the next few days. The cooler conditions will be rather short-lived with extended guidance favoring a return toward high amplitude ridging across the central CONUS and unseasonably warm temperatures returning to the region by midweek next week. Petr && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1210 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Aviation forecast concerns for the 06Z TAFs: - Periods of TSRA, particularly remainder of overnight, and again late Wednesday afternoon/evening. Brief IFR/MVFR possible in precipitation. Scattered SHRA possible at other times. - Winds likely convectively disturbed with somewhat variable directions for the next several hours, otherwise mainly southwest to south winds (breezy at times with gusts 20-25 kts). Late evening surface analysis depicts an area of low pressure over north-central KS, with a quasi-stationary frontal boundary extending northeast across IA into southern WI. A thunderstorm complex which moved across northern IL late Tuesday evening was moving east across lower MI, though storms continue to redevelop back across northwest IN/northeast IL along and northeast of a west-east oriented outflow boundary trailing the aforementioned complex. Additional thunderstorms have developed along the stationary front roughly along a a KOMA-KDSM-KCID line. Expectation is that scattered TS will continue to redevelop across the Chicago terminals as the low-level jet ascends atop the west-east outflow boundary, at least for another 2-3 hours or so. High-res guidance (RRFS/HREF) indicates IA TSRA will spread into parts of northern IL after 09-10Z, potentially lingering through daybreak or slightly later before weakening and moving east of the area. Terminals will remain within a region of broad southwest warm/moist advection however, which could result in isolated/scattered SHRA just about any time Wednesday. Can't rule out some isolated TS during the day, though the next best window for greater TSRA coverage appears to be late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening/night. Surface winds have become convectively disturbed across northern IL at this time in the wake of the departing complex. While winds should eventually settle back to a south-southwest, current winds do have some variability in direction north of the aforementioned outflow boundary. Once winds do shift back to the south-southwest, breezy conditions are likely with gusts 20-25 kts at times. Ratzer && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Flood Watch until 6 AM CDT early this morning for ILZ003- ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ020- ILZ103-ILZ104-ILZ105-ILZ106-ILZ107-ILZ108. IN...Flood Watch until 6 AM CDT early this morning for INZ001. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago  309 FXUS63 KEAX 150846 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 346 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Active weather pattern continues with multiple additional chances for strong to severe thunderstorms, today/Wednesday and Friday. - Today/Wednesday: SPC Day 1 Slight Risk - Friday: SPC Day 3 Enhanced Risk * Warm temperatures (upper 70s to low/mid 80s) are expected to persist through the work week, then cooler and drier conditions expected this weekend and into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 344 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 What looked to be a fairly potent setup for strong to severe storms in the area yesterday evening and into the overnight tended to struggle mightily. By the evening, moisture rapidly surged northward toward and into portions of Nebraska and Iowa and the dryline rapidly retreated westward. Further SW, convective initiation ended up quite a bit further south (well into Oklahoma) than prior expectations. With the otherwise overall lack of synoptic level support/lift, this resulted in initial clusters of strong to severe storms over Nebraska/Iowa that just clipped northern Missouri and little to no precipitation into southern portions of the CWA with trajectories keeping activity into Springfield's area. This through about 3am. As of this writing, elevated non-severe convection continues to drift eastward across northern Missouri, with no expectation for anything more. Additionally, elevated convection is now seen blossoming over south-central to SE Kansas, along the nose of strong ~850mb moisture advection and the general LLJ. Of note, HRRR runs have not tended to handle this new KS convection well with all but the most recent run or two holding off on anything budding until just NE of the KC Metro around/after 10z. This leads to limited confidence in convective trends to round out the overnight and into the morning/commute hours. Conceptually, given what is transpiring and the environment depicted on SPC Mesoanalysis, tend to expect this scattered elevated convection to lift into the forecast area from SW and potentially increase in general coverage as it does so. Fortunately, soundings (ACARS and model) depict a reestablished cap which will help drastically limit top end potential. If anything, these thunderstorms may further prime some locations for possible local flooding or river issues later today/tonight. This general activity should drift NE through the morning and yield a mostly cloudy and moist/humid day. Normally morning convection and cloud cover would give rise to recovery concerns, but persistent moderate to strong moist low level flow should have no issue re-priming and mixing the area. Especially with moderate to steep mid-level lapse rates remaining in place. So, how do we fell about this afternoon and evening given what how forecasts have gone the last couple of days? That is a fair question. A notable difference today is that more substantial/supportive synoptic lift approaches as well as a more progressive frontal boundary as the western trough continues to kick out into and across the Plains with its attendant surface low. So, convective initiation is probably least of the uncertainties, overall. Instead, questions tend to be more around when does convection first fire off this afternoon, is any of it discrete/ahead of the cold front, how quickly it may grow upscale/cluster/linear, etc. Those timing and, more importantly, storm mode answers will determine the most prevalent threats. As you would imagine, discrete convection would carry an all hazards threat, especially large hail and damaging winds. Right movers would potentially yield very supportive low level inflow that could yield the best opportunity for a tornado or two. Clustering or more linear modes, including along frontal passage, would transition threats more toward damaging winds and occasional hail. For reference, broad set of guidance suggests >2000 J/kg MLCAPE, >40-45 kts deep shear. If the cold front was less progressive, mean wind/deep shear orientation would be more concerning for training storms/flooding issues, fortunately that does not set up to be the case here. Activity as early as around 1pm and up to around the evening commute in the KC Metro and 9-10pm for eastern parts of the forecast area. Brief break in activity Thursday as the upper trough moves east and a bit drier air mass moves in, but temperatures remain seasonally warm in the 80s with southerly flow quickly returning. This helps set the table too for Friday which will be yet another chance, quite possibly our best during this stretch, for severe thunderstorm activity. By Friday, another western CONUS trough, currently moving down the coast of British Columbia/approaching Washington/PNW, will be pushing across the Intermountain West and induce rounds of Lee Cyclogenesis along Wyoming and Colorado Front Ranges. Conceptually this checks most the boxes as it is a pretty deep/sizable trough that begins to pivot/take on a neutral to negative tilt across the region. Robust/deep southerly flow ahead of this too will push surface dew points back into the mid 60s and steep mid-level lapse rates may push SB/MLCAPE values >2500-3000 J/kg. Wind profiles again look favorable for an all hazards situation with discrete convection. Synoptic scale lift support, frontal passage, and potential jet position start to check of additional boxes as well. Suffice it to say while you cannot necessarily hang your hat on the details just yet, Friday is a day to pay attention to. Bolstered by the previous Day 4 30% and the New Day 3 Enhanced by the SPC for much/most of the area. In the wake of this Friday system/threat, a period of quieter weather and cooler/more seasonable temperatures looks to settle in as NW mid-upper level flow and eventual height rises/ridging dominates. This should be through the weekend and at least into early next week before any notable precipitation chances attempt to return. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1223 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 TAFs continue to be somewhat messy and uncertain. MVFR ceilings do look likely across the TAF sites late in the current overnight, lingering into late morning/early afternoon before they mix/lift back into VFR. The more uncertain and messy aspect though continues to be convective trends and timing. It is possible to see some budding scattered convection around/after 10z this morning, with genesis near to just E/NE of KSTJ/KMCI. That has been accounted for with a VCTS mention for that time period, and one can expect any activity in their vicinity to pretty quickly drift E/NE. The afternoon/evening convection potential is more certain, but timing remains a bit in flux. With that part in mind, have opted for a TEMPO period to indicate the current best window for storms ahead of and along the frontal passage. VFR conditions return quickly thereafter by around 00z. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Curtis SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...Curtis  616 FXUS63 KMPX 150846 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 346 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mostly dry through early Friday. A few showers are possible today across southeastern MN. Temperatures warm into the 70s or lower 80s Thursday. - A very strong cold front will push east through the area on Friday. Severe thunderstorms are likely to develop on the front late Friday afternoon east of I-35. - Much colder air for the weekend with a chance for snow showers Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 346 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Areas of fog have formed across western MN last evening. It is having a difficult time sustaining itself for long at any given location and appears to be shallow ground fog. A thicker bank of fog and stratus to the north is trying to work south into central MN, but is also not making much progress. High clouds from convection in Iowa are streaming northeast across eastern MN and WI. This should keep fog from becoming too dense or widespread there, although the stratus is making slightly better progress building south in WI. Any fog will burn off quickly after sunrise. A short wave will lift northeast across Iowa this afternoon. It will be the focus for more convection later today, although much of that will remain well to the southeast. There may be a few showers on the northern fringe of the system that can reach southern MN and western WI, but rainfall amounts will be negligible. Southerly flow increases Thursday as a deep trough approaches from the Rockies. A nice bump up in temperatures is expected with low to possibly mid 80s across western MN and 70s across eastern MN and WI. Moisture will begin to advect back north, but the deepest moisture won't arrive until late Friday immediately ahead of a strong cold front. Much of the day will be strongly capped thanks to mid level lapse rates nearing 9 C/km and a relatively dry boundary layer. The cap will gradually erode as low level moisture increases mid to late afternoon. The front will spark scattered thunderstorms along it, likely along or east of I-35 by late afternoon. Initial storms may be splitting supercells given strong unidirectional shear profiles and the likelihood that some parts of the cap may remain. Not too long after initiation, additional activity is likely to form and congeal into a squall line. This evolution may take place southeast of the CWA depending on the timing of the front (which is a little more progressive than before) and when the CAP does break. Nonetheless, there is a risk for severe thunderstorms late Friday afternoon and early evening, mostly in WI. Highs should reach the 70s east of the front Friday afternoon, with temperatures plummeting 30+ degrees into the 30s and 40s by early evening. Moist cyclonic flow for late Friday night and Saturday still brings the potential for some snow showers, but models have trended decidedly drier in the snow department. Highs Saturday may remain in the 30s. Cold temperatures will be short-lived with the trough modifying by Sunday and ridging potentially returning early next week. There remains spread in the guidance with how strong the push toward ridging will be and we may just maintain northwest flow. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 111 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Areas of fog have developed across western MN. A larger bank of IFR stratus and fog exists across northern MN and WI and is slowly building southwest. Scattered mid level clouds are decreasing. The fog should become more widespread during the next several hours, but confidence is low at each TAF site. Best chances for IFR fog after 08-10Z will be AXN, STC, RNH and EAU. KMSP...Removed the fog early this morning. It appears the best chances will remain north and east. Some shallow ground fog is still possible, but conditions are less favorable than Tuesday morning for persistent dense fog. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR. Wind S 5-10kts. FRI...VFR early, then MVFR/TSRA likely late in the afternoon. Wind SE 10-15 kts shifting NW 10-15G25kts. SAT...MVFR cigs. Chance IFR/-SN. Wind NW 15G25-30kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Borghoff AVIATION...Borghoff  063 FXUS65 KBYZ 150847 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Billings MT 247 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy winds along the western foothills today. - Storm system Tonight into Friday: Widespread rain transitioning to snow over the lower elevations Thursday. Uncertainty in snow totals for the foothills and lower elevations remains. - Moderate to heavy snow for all mountains. - Warmer and Dry this Weekend. && .UPDATE... Quick update to add a Wind Advisory for the Livingston area and Beartooth foothills, in effect through this evening. Current observations show wind gusts in the 50s to 60s around the Livingston area, with pressure gradients overachieving. Have updated the wind forecast through this evening. The remainder of the forecast is on track. STP && .DISCUSSION... Through Tuesday... There is still a decent amount of model discrepancies around the trough moving ashore off of the Pacific. Most models are showing some type of split to the feature, however, how much split remains the question. Some runs show a true split where there is one upper level low in SK and another along the WY/CO border. Other runs are showing more of an elongated area of vorticity between SK and WY which would give more forcing to our CWA. Today will still have high temperatures above average for a good portion of the region as the precipitation is not forecast to move into the CWA in ernest until early evening west of Billings and overnight farther east. Widespread 60s are forecast with some locations near and just east of Billings potentially touching 70F. In addition to the warm temperatures, some gusty winds in the low 50 mph range are possible around Livingston and Big Timber. While the low levels will be well mixed ahead of the trough, the 700mb winds only reach the 40 kt range in most models. That being said, a stray gust up to 60 mph cannot be ruled out due to terrain enhancement, however, there is a low chance (30%). With the energy advecting into western MT by 00z this evening showers are forecast to start over western portions of the CWA between noon and 6pm MDT today with some snow starting in the Absaroka/Beartooths a little earlier. Rain will gradually spread eastwards overnight. While there is still some disagreement regarding the FROPA Thursday, there is a better consensus now that it will enter the CWA sometime early Thursday AM and reach Billings before noon. The models lagging the most push the front through Miles City and Sheridan by early afternoon. Behind the cold front temperatures are expected to fall rapidly. Highs for the Thursday and Friday are forecast to be 10 F below average across the region. With these rapidly cooling temps, snow levels will also quickly descend. Although the front arrival is earlier, so is the exit of the precip. This means that there has not been too much meaningful change in snowfall or precip totals with the highest amounts still closest to mountains. The biggest question with the Thursday evening period is the surface wind direction. Some models want to bring in more of a north-northeast wind a few hours after the FROPA which would be good upslope enhancement for all of the typical sites. Other model runs keep the winds primarily out of the NW. This is the main reason for such wide ranges of potential snowfall in the foothills. Livingtson's 10-90th is 1-6", Red Loge 1-11" and Story, WY 3-12". Unfortunately, it will likely not be until right when the winds are forecast to potentially flip before we have a true grasp on whether or not meaningful upslope will occur. Due to this, if you have interests in the foothills or plan to travel along I-90 through Livingston, MT or Sheridan, WY Thursday and Friday, be sure to pay close attention to the weather. There is now some hints of a potential mountain wave into the Red Lodge area early Thursday morning just before the cold front pushes through. Winds in the 700-500mb layer will be out of the SW between 50-70kts. While all models show some subsidence, the GFS is the most bullish. As with all mountain wave events there is a high degree of uncertainty, however, there is the possibility for some strong winds Thursday into Red Lodge and surrounding areas. As for the east side of the Bighorns (Dayton, WY) there is a small chance (20%) that some mountain wave activity occurs prior to sunrise Thursday but the 700mb wind direction may be too southwesterly. The good news for folks with outdoor plans this weekend is that we have a warm and dry weekend in store. Behind the trough, ridging quickly builds in which will allow temps to rebound to near average Saturday and above average again by Sunday. Most of the Region will be feeling temps in the mid to upper 60s again by Sunday afternoon. It is worth noting that if we are able to accumulate a decent amount of snow in the foothills then all of this snow will rapidly melt this weekend. Moving into the start of next week there is another chance for more precipitation and cooler weather. In fact, the active pattern is expected to persist through much of the rest of the month. WMR .AVIATION... While winds may decrease near KLVM into the morning, look for gusty southwest to west winds to increase once again today. These gusty winds will also impact K6S0 and KHWQ during the day today. Late today into Thursday, a cold front is expected to move through the area. Ahead of this front, isolated to scattered showers are forecast over and near the mountains of south-central and western Montana this afternoon and evening. A few weak thunderstorms are possible over the west (20% chance) during the afternoon and evening. As the cold front brings widespread rain/snow into Thursday, conditions will deteriorate towards MVFR to IFR. Mountain obscurations will increase this afternoon into tonight over the west. STP && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 068 038/046 025/047 027/059 035/069 042/075 043/076 1/B 58/W 34/J 20/U 00/U 01/B 12/W LVM 060 029/038 020/041 022/055 030/064 037/070 040/071 5/W 99/J 57/J 30/U 00/U 01/B 12/W HDN 071 038/048 025/049 024/059 028/070 037/077 043/077 1/B 48/W 44/J 21/U 00/U 01/U 11/U MLS 070 040/049 023/043 022/054 028/067 039/075 043/074 1/B 34/W 31/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/U 4BQ 069 041/053 024/042 019/052 028/066 038/074 043/074 0/U 14/W 62/J 11/U 00/U 00/U 01/U BHK 069 038/054 022/039 018/049 025/064 036/071 040/070 0/U 12/W 52/J 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U SHR 067 034/047 021/039 019/050 025/064 034/072 038/073 0/B 29/W 86/J 31/U 00/U 00/B 12/W && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Wind Advisory in effect until 10 PM MDT this evening FOR ZONES 65-66. Winter Storm Warning in effect from noon today to 6 AM MDT Friday FOR ZONES 67-68. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings  796 FXUS63 KJKL 150848 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 448 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures will average 15 or more degrees above normal through the end of the week. Record or near record high temperatures are forecast today, Friday, and Saturday. - Showers/storms are possible Thursday and Thursday night with a passing disturbance, with potentially greater chances this weekend with a cold front. - Much cooler weather is expected Sunday into early next week, with the potential for patchy frost in the coldest locations Monday morning. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday Night) Issued at 446 AM EDT WED APR 15 2026 Shortwave ridging this morning will give way to increasing southwest flow ahead of a mid-level disturbance that will cross the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley Thursday into Thursday night, bringing with it increased chances for showers and thunderstorms, and more importantly, badly needed rainfall. Increased fire danger is expected today, especially across southeastern Kentucky, from a combination of unseasonably warm (to hot) conditions, low humidity (generally in the 20 to 30 percent range), southwest breezes (gusts 15 to 20 mph), and dry fuels from the ongoing lack of sufficient wetting rains. Dry conditions continue into tonight, at least on ridgetops and upper slopes, but fortunately moderating conditions are expected to arrive from the west Thursday as a pair of passing disturbances brings showers and thunderstorms to the area. The first disturbance is a northern stream disturbance moving from the Central Plains through the northern Ohio River Valley and will be responsible for rain chances during the late morning through afternoon period, with a southern stream disturbance moving from Texas to the Mid-Atlantic providing a second round of showers and storms for the late afternoon through overnight period. At this time, it appears the better moisture and instability will accompany the second wave in the afternoon, with a marginal severe threat conditional on sufficient destabilization after the passage of the first disturbance and associated shower and cloud activity. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 446 AM EDT WED APR 15 2026 As showers taper off heading into Friday morning, temperatures cool into the low to mid 50s in valleys, and low 60s along ridge tops. A ridge of high pressure briefly builds over the area Friday ahead of a deepening trough over the Rockies and Northern Plains. Relatively quiet weather is expected, with a mix of sun and clouds, and temperatures warming into the 80s. Because of the approaching system, clouds begin to increase overnight and through Saturday. Low temperatures Friday night cool into the 50s and low 60s. Saturday, the upper level trough will be over the Upper Great Lakes, with a warm front extending through the Great Lakes into the Mid- Atlantic, while a trailing cold front will extend through the Upper MidWest, the Mid and Lower Mississippi valleys, with showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of it. Shower and storm chances will increase over Eastern Kentucky from northwest to southeast through the afternoon into the evening and overnight hours. Showers and storms are then expected to taper off from northwest to southeast through Sunday. Temperatures Saturday, ahead of the cold front, will warm into mid to upper 80s for most, under southwesterly winds. At night, with winds becoming west to northwesterly, cold air advecting in behind the cold front will cool temperatures into the mid to upper 40s. Sunday, as remaining showers taper off, the cold front is modeled southeast of the area. Temperatures will be much cooler across the area, some 20 to 25 degrees cooler in fact, ranging in the low to mid 60s. Clouds should diminish through the afternoon as the trough begins to depart the area. However, Eastern Kentucky looks to be on the backside of the trough heading into Sunday night. With cold air still advecting in under light northwesterly winds and clearing skies, temperatures are expected to drop into the mid to upper 30s in the valleys and lower 40s elsewhere, which may lead to patchy frost in the coldest locations. Height rises look to occur Monday, leading to mostly sunny skies, and highs in the low to mid 60s. Monday night, temperatures cool into the upper 30s to near 40 degrees. Tuesday, a shortwave looks to skirt through the Upper Great Lakes and its main effects should remain north of the area. Conditions will feature a mix of sun and clouds under southerly winds and seasonable temperatures warming into the low 70s. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday) ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT WED APR 15 2026 VFR conditions prevailed at the 06Z TAF issuance and should hold through the period. The region will remain in the warm sector between a sfc ridge of high pressure extending from the Southeast to the western Atlantic, and a frontal zone from New England across the Great Lakes and into the Plains. In between the sfc systems, south to southwest winds will average between 5 and 10 kts in more exposed locations with occasional higher gusts, with light and variable or southwest winds 5 kts of less at more sheltered TAF sites. Marginal LLWS has likely peaked between 03z and 06z and will diminish in intensity and move off to the north through the remainder of tonight. South to southwest winds should pick up again into the 5 to 12 kts range from around 14Z - once the nocturnal inversion mixes out - until around sunset this evening. Occasional gusts to around 20 kts are also expected . && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CMC LONG TERM...GINNICK/CMC AVIATION...CMC  830 FXUS65 KVEF 150853 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 153 PM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Clear skies and warming temperatures expected through tomorrow before gusty winds and cool temperatures return late-week. && .DISCUSSION...Through Monday. Temperatures will increase a few more degrees today and tomorrow as heights aloft increase. Tomorrow's highs will be within a few degrees of normal for mid-April, which for Las Vegas means highs in the low 80s. A change in the weather pattern arrives on Thursday as an area of closed low pressure, currently located off the coast of British Columbia, dives southeast into the Great Basin. The primary concern with this system is wind. Southwesterly prefrontal winds ramp up in the Mojave Desert while northwesterly postfrontal winds start to increase in the southern Great Basin on Thursday morning. These winds include gusts between 35 and 45 mph, the strongest of which should occur over high terrain. Winds remain elevated and gradually shift north on Thursday night as the front moves south. The strongest winds with this system are expected to occur on Friday in the Colorado River Valley as a favorable north to south pressure gradient develops. There is a greater than 80 percent probability of wind gusts reaching 40 mph in that area and a 40 to 50 percent probability of gusts reaching 58 mph in a localized area near Bullhead City. Will continue to monitor model trends and assess the need and timing of wind-related headlines. Besides wind, cold air and lowering heights aloft bring a 10 to 15 degree temperature decrease between Wednesday and Friday. Most moisture associated with this system remains the north of the forecast area, but there is a 20 to 40 percent probability of light precipitation in Lincoln County on Thursday and early Friday. Snow levels fall to between 2000 and 3000 feet on Thursday night as cold air moves in, meaning a dusting of snow cannot be ruled out. Temperatures will rebound and dry conditions return as ridging builds again this weekend, but breezy southerly winds may continue for some of the area. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Light winds will persist through the morning. A period of southeast winds may develop later this morning, but speeds will remain under 8KT. By 21Z, winds will transition southwest and increase, with gusts to around 20KT expected through the afternoon. Gusts will drop around sunset, but elevated south winds at 8-10KT will continue through the night. On Thursday, gusty southwest winds are expected to start in the morning with gusts 20-25KT, then continue to increase to around 30KT in the afternoon. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Light winds will continue through the early morning before west to southwest winds increase in the late morning and afternoon. Widespread gusts of 15- 25KT are expected, including at KBIH where a west push of winds is likely between 23Z and 03Z. Winds will diminish after sunset except around KDAG where west winds at 10-15KT will continue through the night. Occasional high clouds are possible at times but VFR conditions are expected through the period. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Meltzer AVIATION...Nickerson For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter  915 FXUS65 KREV 150854 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 154 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * A strong cold front brings winds and chances for snowfall tonight into Thursday morning. * Widespread hard freezes Friday morning. * Quiet weather and seasonable temperatures for the upcoming weekend, with active weather possible next week. && .DISCUSSION... * A cold front passage is still on track for later this evening into Thursday morning. Lastest guidance has not changed the timing or magnitude of the winds from the prior forecast. Pre- frontal west winds this afternoon will gust between 35-45 mph across western NV and northeast CA. However, there is a likely (50-80%) chance for stronger wind gusts exceeding 55 mph in northern Washoe County, Pershing County, and the Surprise Valley this afternoon. With the passage of the front tonight, there will be a short 2-4 hour duration of strong winds along the Sierra Front, with gusts between 35-45 mph. For Thursday, the stronger winds shift south of I-80 toward Mineral and Mono counties, with northwest winds between 35-45 mph. * This is not a very wet system; high-resolution guidance shows a quick shot of light snow and rain with the frontal passage tonight into Thursday morning. Amounts are meager, with a 15-40% chance for at least 0.1" inches of snow. Timing is still on track from prior forecast. Showers will arrive between 5-8 PM tonight in Lassen County and northern Washoe County. Snow showers are then possible between 10 PM-7 AM for western NV and the Tahoe Basin. Finally, snow showers will make their way into Mineral County by around 7-9 AM Thursday. * With the passage of the cold front, Thursday high temperatures will struggle into the low 40s in the Sierra communties and near 50 degrees in western NV. With clearing skies, Friday morning low temperatures will likely (>90%) fall well into the 20s for much of northeast CA and western NV. The warmer urban locations, such as Reno, will be slightly warmer Friday morning. * We will clear out and warm up on Friday and Saturday. But, we will keep an active pattern into next week. Ensembles are in some agreement in showing a larger trough pattern over the western US from Sunday through the end of the 7-day forecast period. There are differences in timing and strenght between the ensembles, but overall it remains active weather-wise. -McKellar && .AVIATION... * A cold front will pass through tonight, creating some pre- frontal wind gusts in the afternoon likely up to 35kt. A wind shift from west to north will likely happen between 08-12Z Thursday morning for terminals around the Tahoe Basin and Sierra Front. * Ridgetop wind gusts from the west to southwest around 45-55 kts through the afternoon, increasing to 55-65 kts tonight. This will result in areas of turbulence and periods of LLWS in the Sierra and western NV terminals after 03Z. * There will be a 20-30% chance for light snow showers late tonight through Thursday morning between 05-14Z. Any accumulations will be minimal, with just a 10-30% chance for up to 0.1" of snow. -McKellar && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ005. Freeze Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning NVZ001- 003>005. Lake Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 AM PDT Thursday NVZ002. Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 AM PDT Thursday NVZ004. CA...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this evening CAZ070. Freeze Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning CAZ070- 071. Lake Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 AM PDT Thursday CAZ072. && $$  904 FXUS64 KJAN 150855 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 355 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of dense fog are possible this morning, especially in portions of southeast Mississippi. - There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms in the US Highway 82 corridor on Thursday. - Chances for more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity increase Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 346 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Through This Morning: As we saw yesterday morning, moisture return into the region, in conjunction with radiational cooling overnight is creating a fog along the Mississippi and Alabama Gulf Coasts, spreading north into portions of southeast Mississippi. Issued a Dense Fog Advisory where confidence in areas of fog is greatest, but some patchy fog could develop farther north and west than the Pine Belt by sunrise as well. Today through Tuesday: Fog development is expected again late tonight into Thursday morning, spreading from the Gulf Coast into at least central Mississippi with advection/radiation effects. A dominant surface high and upper-level ridge over the Southeast US will blunt the chance for an approaching cold front to make its way too far south into our area on Thursday. Timing looks a little faster with the shortwave, and may miss best daytime heating. The 20-30% chances for showers and thunderstorms were trimmed back into the US Highway 82 corridor. A re-strengthening of the ridge will bring dry conditions back to the forecast area, and high temperatures on Friday will even flirt with 90 degrees for most locations in our forecast area. An amplifying upper-level pattern will bring a trough and cooler surface air into the High Plains by Friday night into Saturday. The resulting low pressure system will still be far to our north around the Great Lakes, but a stronger cold front should push through our area Saturday night into Sunday. Expect increased moisture ahead of the frontal passage, with the best chance (60%) of the next 7 days for showers and thunderstorms to impact the area. The surface high behind this system will be fairly strong for mid-April. 1025+ mb is about 1 to 2 standard deviations above normal across the Mid-South. Cooler weather is expected (and dry) in the wake of this frontal passage. Widespread low temperatures in the 40s are achievable Sunday night into Monday. /NF/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 129 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through most of tonight. Another round of low stratus/fog potential will advect in from the south toward daybreak, and primarily impact southern/eastern sites with LIFR/IFR categories during the early to mid morning hours Wednesday. Expect a quick improvement to VFR category at all sites by late morning continuing through the remainder of the day and into the evening. Southerly surface wind will diminish this evening, then pick up during the day and become gusty. /EC/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 84 63 86 64 / 0 0 10 0 Meridian 85 60 86 61 / 0 0 10 0 Vicksburg 86 63 87 65 / 0 0 10 0 Hattiesburg 85 62 87 62 / 0 0 10 0 Natchez 85 64 87 64 / 0 0 10 0 Greenville 86 67 86 66 / 0 10 30 10 Greenwood 86 66 85 66 / 0 0 20 10 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MSZ063>066- 072>074. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ NF/KP  062 FXUS65 KTWC 150858 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 158 AM MST Wed Apr 15 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Temperatures remain just below normal Wednesday, then returning to near to slightly above normal levels Thursday and Friday, though some breezy winds are expected both days. Temperatures warm up to above normal levels this weekend with easterly breezes Sunday into early next work week. && .DISCUSSION...A Pacific low will begin to dig south into the Great Basin today then move into the Rockies Thursday and Friday. The core of the trough is expected to stay to the north in Utah. At the same time a weak shortwave will be moving through Baja and Sonora. This system will be dry with the main impact to sensible weather being another round of gusty west/southwest winds Thursday and Friday afternoons. Expect speeds 12-20 mph with gusts 25-35 mph. Winds will be most widespread Thursday and from Tucson eastward on Friday. It's looking like winds will be below critical fire weather thresholds, but there could be isolated small areas that briefly see Red Flag conditions Thursday. Temperatures today and Friday will be a couple degrees below normal, and a couple degrees above normal Thursday. This weekend into early next week ridging will be in place over the Intermountain West with a strong closed Pacific low sitting off the West Coast. Cluster analysis shows variance in how quickly this low moves onshore with the EPS favoring a quicker eastward progression. At the surface high pressure sets up over the southern Plains, leading to a strong easterly pressure gradient over southeast Arizona. This will translate into gusty southeast winds for most of southeast Arizona Sunday into Monday morning, especially in the Gila River Valley. This could lead to critical fire weather conditions for portions of Graham County Sunday. Thanks to the ridge temperatures will see a warming trend becoming 3-7 degrees above normal Saturday into early next week. Sunday looks to be the warmest day with Tucson seeing around a 40 percent chance to hit 90 degrees. & .AVIATION...Valid through 16/12z. SKC through the period. SFC winds variable less than 8 kts this morning, becoming WLY/NWLY 5-10 kts aft 15/19Z. After 16/02Z winds become light and variable again. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today winds will be mostly light and terrain driven 5 to 10 mph. Another Pacific system will move to our north Thursday and Friday leading to another round strong gusty winds. While RH values are expected to meet critical thresholds, wind speeds don't look like they'll be strong enough to warrant Red Flag headlines. Regardless, at least near critical fire weather conditions are expected during this period. Light winds return Saturday then gusty easterly winds are expected Sunday into Monday morning. Winds could be strong enough in the Gila River Valley Sunday to lead to areas of critical fire weather conditions. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Hardin Visit us on Facebook, X, YouTube, and at weather.gov/Tucson