418 FXUS61 KRLX 150905 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 505 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The Storm Prediction Center has expanded the Marginal Risk for severer thunderstorms across the middle Ohio Valley for Thursday afternoon and evening, in response to faster timing with a system approaching from the west. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Record to near-record heat will persist through Saturday, with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s, and isolated 90s possible today and Saturday. - 2) Elevated fire danger continues through the week due to anomalous heat, minimum afternoon relative humidity percentages in the 30s, breezy conditions, and antecedent dry dead fuels with only a couple of opportunities for a conditional wetting rain. - 3) Isolated to scattered strong thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening, primarily in interior southeast Ohio. There is a better chance for showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and night, as a system moves through. A few storms may produce marginally severe wind gusts or hail in interior southeast Ohio this afternoon and evening, and across the middle Ohio Valley Thursday afternoon and evening. - 4) A strong cold front Saturday night into Sunday will end the heatwave, bringing afternoon and evening showers and strong storms evolving into a period of beneficial nighttime rain. - 5) Much cooler and mainly dry weather follows the cold front for the early portion of next week. There is the potential for frost on Monday and Tuesday mornings, and minimum afternoon relative humidity percentages in the 20s. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A mid/upper-level ridge builds slightly today, and then rebuilds Friday behind a Thursday/Thursday night system. This will maintain the summer-like weather, with record to near- record heat through the balance of the week, along with unseasonably mild nights. The hottest afternoons are expected today and Saturday, with the Thursday/Thursday night system in the next key message dampening highs a bit Thursday and Friday. KEY MESSAGE 2... Minimum afternoon relative humidity percentages will be in the 30s for all but interior southeast Ohio through the weekend, and then in the 20s next Monday and Tuesday. With wind gusts of 15 to 25 mph most days (less Friday), and only a couple of opportunities for a conditional wetting rain, afternoon and evening fire danger is likely to be enhanced. This may be mitigated by rapidly increased canopy coverage across the lowlands. KEY MESSAGE 3... Weak, flat mid/upper-level short wave troughs will somewhat focus low coverage showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. With a corridor of increased shear and instability to the north and west, thunderstorms this afternoon and evening can become strong to Marginally severe across far northwest portions of the forecast area. The primary threat is damaging wind, given marginally adequate shear amid large temperature- dew point spreads. There is a better chance for showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and night, as a mid/upper-level short wave trough moves through with a weak surface reflection passing well north of the area. Amid faster timing, the trough is likely to get close enough to increase shear amid afternoon heating at least across the middle Ohio Valley, and a few storms may produce marginally severe wind gusts and perhaps hail there Thursday afternoon and evening. The Storm Prediction Center has expanded the Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms across the middle Ohio Valley for Thursday afternoon and evening. Friday into early Saturday look mainly dry between systems, the next one in the next key message. KEY MESSAGE 4... A significant pattern shift occurs this weekend as a deep trough moves into the eastern U.S. Showers are likely and thunderstorms possible as this trough drives a strong surface cold front eastward across the area late Saturday through Saturday night. This system is again likely to get close enough to enhance diurnal convection. The instability forecast will again need watched given the increased shear associated with the system, and timing nearly coincident with diurnal heating. Of note is the expansive Severe Weather Risk area depicted upstream over the middle of the Country by the Storm Prediction Center on Day 3, Friday, ranging as high as Enhanced. This then translates to a slight, or 15 percent risk, over the Ohio Valley for Day 4, Saturday/Saturday night. This system will again provide minimal drought relief although the evening showers and storms may evolve into a somewhat beneficial nighttime wetting rain. Another dry period is to follow, next key message. KEY MESSAGE 5... A period of dry, cooler weather will start the new week, as cool Canadian high pressure builds behind a large mid/upper- level long wave but transient trough moves offshore. Strong cold advection in the wake of the front drops h85 temperatures significantly, to around 5 C below 0 give or take Sunday night, compared with the 15 C or so temperatures of the current early season heat wave. Highs will retreat to the 50s to low to mid 60s F for Sunday and Monday, with areas subject to cold air drainage away from major rivers seeing frost potential Monday and Tuesday mornings, though the high un-strategically crosses overhead late Monday. Temperatures moderate promptly for highs Tuesday and lows Tuesday night, as the exiting high allows return south to southwest flow around the exiting highs, and beneath rising heights behind the exiting trough although another may drop in midweek. The dry weather continues, to include the lack of rain and low afternoon relative humidity. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... General VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period, with a drier day in store. Light south to southwest surface flow early this morning will become southwest with gusts of 15 to 20 kts today, before becoming light south to southwest again tonight. Moderate southwest flow aloft early this morning will mix through to light to moderate southwest today, before becoming moderate southwest tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: There may be minimal low level wind shear early this morning, and again overnight tonight/early Thursday morning. Wind gusts today will fluctuate, possibly including stronger gusts than forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 04/15/26 UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 EDT 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... VFR conditions will generally prevail through the week. However, brief periods of MVFR to IFR restrictions are possible within isolated showers and thunderstorms, with a higher likelihood of MVFR to IFR restrictions Thursday night and late Saturday through Saturday night. && .Climate... Unseasonably warm weather continues through Saturday with daytime record highs challenged at least today and Saturday. Forecast / Record High Temperatures ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Wed, 4/15 | Thu, 4/16 | Fri, 4/17 | Sat, 4/18 | ------------------------------------------------------------------------ CRW | 89 / 89 (1994) | 86 / 89 (2002) | 82 / 89 (1976) | 88 / 90 (2019) | HTS | 89 / 87 (2024) | 85 / 89 (2024) | 84 / 87 (1976) | 87 / 89 (1955) | CKB | 86 / 83 (1974) | 83 / 86 (2002) | 77 / 88 (1969) | 85 / 88 (1976) | PKB | 87 / 84 (2024) | 84 / 88 (2002) | 80 / 89 (1976) | 86 / 91 (1976) | BKW | 83 / 82 (2012) | 81 / 84 (2002) | 77 / 84 (1976) | 82 / 86 (1976) | EKN | 84 / 81 (2012) | 82 / 85 (2012) | 76 / 87 (1976) | 83 / 88 (1976) | ------------------------------------------------------------------------ && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TRM AVIATION...TRM CLIMATE...TRM  591 FXUS63 KDVN 150906 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 406 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rounds of showers and storms are expected through tonight. Additional severe storms are possible, mainly this afternoon and evening. The entire area is in a Slight Risk (level 2/5) for severe weather. - Threat for flash flooding from the potential for repeated rounds of storms and high rainfall rates through this evening. Greatest concern is north of the Hwy 30 corridor where the ground is saturated from recent heavy rains of 1-3+ inches. Any additional heavy rain in these areas will increase the risk for flooding, and a Flood Watch has been issued through this evening. - SPC has expanded the Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) for severe weather to include much of the area Friday. Damaging winds and tornadoes appear to be the primary threats. - Turning much cooler/seasonable this weekend with the potential for frost/freeze conditions Saturday night and again Sunday night. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 351 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Showers and storms are widespread early this morning north of Hwy 34 aided by ascent from a weak mid level impulse and elevated warm, moist advection atop a cool pool with an outflow boundary near a Princeton, IL to Mount Pleasant, IA line continuing to advance southeastward. Some gusty winds and isolated hail cannot be ruled out across the south where a moderately unstable environment has largely been left undisturbed until now. In addition, a veered LLJ is leading to at least a temporary favorable setup for a period of training of convection and locally heavy rain immediately north of the outflow. Anticipate a gradual decrease in coverage by mid to late morning, with the waning nocturnal LLJ and passage of the shortwave. The break in activity may allow for some recovery or destabilization to occur ahead of a more vigorous shortwave trough and attendant surface low lifting through western Iowa this evening. The amount of recovery/destabilization is uncertain and thus some uncertainty exists with the magnitude/ coverage of severe storms later today through this evening. That being said, higher confidence exists on more widespread coverage of storms this afternoon into tonight due to the arrival of stronger dynamics/forcing aided by 50-70m height falls at 500 hPa and more robust mid level flow with 50-60+ kt winds 700-500 hPa. This should foster more widespread convection by later today and tonight with an attendant severe threat with all hazards in play. The lifting low should help lift the remnant outflow back northward as a pseudo-warm front by this evening. While overall low level shear is much weaker, there will be a tornado threat perhaps mostly focused along/near this boundary with any cells that can ingest the enhanced SRH. Right now this boundary placement looks to be roughly between Hwy 30 and Hwy 34 by this evening, and thus the higher 5% tornado probabilities in this area mainly on the Iowa side where shear is a bit higher being in closer proximity to the lifting surface low. The strong deep layer shear will provide good venting aloft and combined with a rather perpendicular vector to the initiating boundary will prove favorable for discrete supercells initially with all hazards in play. Then in time, we may see a more mixed mode with perhaps more muticell/linear evolution taking place tonight ahead of the advancing cold front, with largely a resulting wind and isolated tornado threat. Potential for repeated storms and periods of high rainfall rates of 1+ inch/hr will foster a threat for heavy rain and flooding. The greatest risk or most vulnerable area appears to be north of Hwy 30 where the ground is saturated from recent heavy rainfall of 1-3 inches, and as a result I have issued a Flood Watch through this evening. This activity should start to diminish by late evening and overnight with the passage of the cold front. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 351 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A short period of drier weather is expected by Thursday afternoon through Friday morning, as a bout of high pressure quickly traverses the region. As the high departs Friday afternoon, return flow/warm advection will commence and strengthen with a warm front lifting northward into the region. We will have to watch for any storm development in the afternoon along the lifting warm front. Currently though this potential is looking somewhat lower due to some capping and lack of synoptic scale ascent. The main corridor for severe storm development Friday PM looks to be to our west ahead of a cold front and deeper surface low attendant to a lifting shortwave. Very strong wind fields with parallel vector orientation to the cold front should support a fairly quick transition and upscale growth to a line of storms or QLCS, which should then sweep eastward across the area during the evening and early overnight with mainly an attendant damaging wind threat, and tornado threat with any embedded mesovorts. SPC has expanded the Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) to include much of the service area for Friday. The strong cold front will sweep through the area late Friday night/early Saturday. In the wake, scattered showers are possible Saturday PM in the cyclonic flow/cold advection. Otherwise, blustery and much cooler/seasonable conditions are on tap Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures look to dip down around or possibly below freezing in parts of the area both nights leading to the potential for frost (should winds decouple) and/or freeze conditions. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 110 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Predominantly VFR with MVFR/IFR bouts in storms through the period. A line of storms south of KCID and KDBQ will likely impact KMLI and KBRL over the next several hours (through 10z) with MVFR to IFR conditions (mainly visibility). This may be preceded by gusty NW winds to 30+ kt with additional gusts possible with the storms. Elsewhere, mainly showers will linger at times near KDBQ and KCID prior to daybreak. Timing of the precipitation beyond the next 6 hours remains quite challenging. Overall it looks like there will be a decrease in precipitation coverage between 12z-18z, then an uptick is anticipated after 20z through Wednesday evening as a surface low and cold front move through. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...Flood Watch through this evening for IAZ040>042-051>054. IL...Flood Watch through this evening for ILZ001-002-007. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM...05 AVIATION...05  525 FXUS63 KSGF 150908 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 408 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slight (level 2 of 5) severe thunderstorm risk this afternoon into tonight. Number of rounds, timing of highest severe risk, exact hazards, and intensity still hinges on how quickly morning convection dissipates, but most severe scenario involves large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes this afternoon into this evening. - Thursday afternoon has a low-end Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk of severe thunderstorms in the far eastern Ozarks, with primary hazard being large hail. - Severe thunderstorms expected again on Friday, with an Enhanced (level 3 of 5) Risk of severe weather beginning in the afternoon and continuing through the overnight hours into early Saturday morning. - Marginal excessive rainfall concerns through the week in areas that see repeated strong storms and/or training precipitation. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 335 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Current Conditions & Synoptic Overview: Mid- and upper-level water vapor imagery depict an upper-level trough moving across the western CONUS, with the base of the trough pushing into the Sonoran Desert of northwest Mexico. Along the eastern edge of the advancing trough, two centers of cyclonic rotation can be observed, one near Bismarck ND and the other near North Platte NE. Deep convection is ongoing in 4 locations across the Midwest and Southern Plains along two boundaries of interest: along a stationary/quasi-cold front across southern Iowa and Wisconsin and from southern Michigan into northern Ohio, and in the warm sector ahead of a dryline in south-central Texas and from central Oklahoma into the Ozarks. The convection in our backyard early this morning is a decaying MCV that brought strong to severe winds as it moved into the area early this morning. Despite the cold pool of the late evening MCV bleeding the environment and completely depleting the instability in northeast Oklahoma and southwest Missouri, additional pockets of elevated convection are forming on the western edges of the MLCAPE gradient/remnant cold pool as 50-60kt LLJ advects warm, moist air overtop the more dense air mass. These storms upstream of our area are not expected to be able to sustain themselves very long in such a stable environment, but this second round of scattered, disorganized elevated convection will advance into our area this morning. Even if the morning convection doesn't persist very long in time or reach very far east, it will still have some residual effect on the ability and speed at which the environment destabilizes this afternoon. One other potential impact this AM convection could have would be leaving residual outflow boundaries or cold pools behind for storms to potentially form along this afternoon. Model guidance across 00Z-06Z suites seem to point to three potential solutions for how today'afternoons setup evolves. From most to least likely/highest confidence to lowest confidence: Outcome 1: Afternoon warm sector convection across our area, followed by line of storms that form as discrete/semi-discrete supercells in Kansas/Oklahoma and quickly grow upscale into a line and arrive during the evening hours. This afternoon convection would depend on morning convection stopping at some point so a capping inversion can develop aloft before being broken this afternoon. Despite widespread cloud cover, confidence is high in the cap being broken, and the remnant outflow boundaries/cold pools/surface convergence from morning convection would serve as a mechanism for storms to form off of in the afternoon without requiring the dryline to initiate. Storms would form as discrete initially, but quickly grow upscale into clusters. Coverage would be scattered enough to allow for the later round of storms to maintain their severe risk. Straight hodographs earlier in the afternoon would support splitting supercells that would suggest more of a hail threat initially, and also implicate that storm mode becomes messy quickly. Large hail to the size of golf balls, damaging winds up to 70 mph, and a few tornadoes would be possible with the afternoon storm development, while damaging winds up to 70 mph and weak embedded tornadoes would be the hazards for the line of storms later in the evening. There could be a risk for strong tornadoes with any supercells that remain mature into the evening, when shear profiles become more curved in the low- levels. Outcome 2: No afternoon warm sector convection, but the discrete/semi- discrete supercells in Kansas and Oklahoma form along the dryline as anticipated and grow upscale into a line and arrive during the evening hours. This outcome would have a lower, but still not insignificant, severe risk compared to the first outcome. The timing of severe potential would be limited to the window where storms are moving into the area from Oklahoma/Kansas, with the hazards being damaging winds up to 70 mph and weak embedded tornadoes with the line. Outcome 3: Continuous, non-severe warm sector convection continues all through the morning and afternoon hours, before upstream convection develops and arrives this evening. When the upstream storms do arrive this evening, the atmosphere would be so washed out from continuous development that there would be a far lower to even no severe risk once it does arrive. The line of storms that arrives overnight could have stratiform development behind the leading edge that lingers into the early morning hours on Thursday. The Eastern Ozarks could see a continued, low severe risk for elevated storms on Thursday. with a few CAMs hinting at the line moving out of the area fast enough tonight that the air mass could recover and see redevelopmnent by the afternoon. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Far to our northwest, GOES-West water vapor imagery shows another digging trough developing aloft over the Pacific Northwest, which will serve as the primary driving force for another widespread round of showers and strong to severe thunderstorms across the Plains on Friday. Confidence is high in this trough moving across the central US by Friday night, providng ascent for widespread showers and thunderstorms as a cold front finally displaces the persistent Bermuda High that has been blocking the pattern up. The best chances for severe weather on Friday will be further north and west of a Joplin to Jefferson City line within an Enhanced (Level 3 of 5) Risk, which is closer to the cold front and more likely to see initiation and maintainence within the more favorable diurnal window of instability. Our position between the dryline that persists over the Southern Plains and the cold front pushing in from the north means a big question mark surrounding whether we will be a part of the dryline supercell club as part of that severe risk. Supercells would put large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes on the table as potential risks prior to the cold front arriving to the area. If our severe risk is tied only to the cold frontal passage, that would implicate damaging winds and embedded spin-up tornadoes as the severe hazards of concern. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1254 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A mesoscale convective system is moving from northeast Oklahoma into southern Missouri, with deeper convective towers sandwiched on either side by a stratiform rainfall region. Lightning does extend ahead and behind of the strongest convective towers into the leading and trailing stratiform rainfall regions, with positive bolts recorded by ground lightning station observations suggesting lightning potential extends 20-30 miles east of the leading edge of the convective line. Impacts at the site begin with light rain. As the deeper towers arrive, southerly winds gust 30-40kts, lightning concentration increases, and precip transitions to a heavy downpour, which lends itself to vis reductions to 1-2 miles. After the brief downpour, rainfall becomes light again and conditions return to VFR. By 09-10Z, rainfall is expected to end at TAF sites. Additional scattered showers and storms may pass over the area at times through the early morning hours and again this afternoon, with the best chance for widespread rainfall and thunderstorms returning after 16Z. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Record High Temperatures: April 14: KVIH: 87/2006 KUNO: 86/2024 April 15: KUNO: 84/9999 April 17: KSGF: 87/1937 KVIH: 86/2004 KUNO: 87/2006 Record High Minimum Temperatures: April 14: KSGF: 67/2006 April 15: KSGF: 63/2006 April 16: KSGF: 66/1963 April 17: KSGF: 66/1976 && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Camden LONG TERM...Camden AVIATION...Camden CLIMATE...Camden  757 FXUS63 KAPX 150913 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 513 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Heavy rain and storm concerns continue today/tonight into Thursday... - Breezy with additional rain/storm concerns Saturday... - Snow possible Sunday... && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 511 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .DISCUSSION... PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: Westerly flow across the PacNW...with a SW-NE oriented longwave trough axis stretching from Baja California into the northern Plains (a couple embedded PV maxima over CO...central SD...and just north of Lake Superior). Ridge axis prevails across the southeastern US...with zonal flow across eastern Canada. Continued plume of anomalous moisture stretching from TX through the MS Valley into the Upper Great Lakes, where pwats exceed 1in. Flow is a bit split across the central US, with a boundary stretching from the Desert SW to the OH Valley/Upper Great Lakes and attendant southwesterly low- level flow...and a northern stream system developing in southern Alberta/Saskatchewan, with warm advection into Manitoba. Cold air (subzero at 850mb) currently across northern/central Canada, attendant to a stationary boundary stretching from British Columbia to Hudson Bay. Michigan stuck in the battlezone...with temps in the lower 40s across the EUP...and lower 60s across southern MI where convection continues; things have largely quieted down across northern MI as of 6z...save for a few showers developing along a subtle deformation area over the eastern UP. Nearly to completely saturated conditions at the surface in the wake of said convection, even up into the UP...and noting quite a bit of fog and low stratus upstream from us, into the Yoop/Tip of the Mitt. Bit of a pattern shift in the works for the latter half of the period...with signals for troughing trying (though not very successfully) to settle into the eastern half of the continent at times in the coming days...particularly late in the weekend into early next week. In the meantime... aforementioned shortwave troughing over the SW US looks to track northeastward into the Midwest late tonight into Thursday...bringing our next shot at showers and storms. Ridging to build immediately behind this for Thursday night into Friday...as southwesterly flow increases ahead of troughing digging into the western US/central Canada. This latter feature will track into the Midwest through the weekend, driving a strong surface low through the Midwest/eastern Canada Friday night into Saturday. Timing of the front is a bit unclear attm but signals point toward cold advection returning at some point on Saturday or Saturday night...cold enough that the "S" word may rear its head again...with breezy northwest/west flow picking up again into Sunday...before high pressure attempts to build in going into early next week...potentially followed by another shot at cold air for the end of the period and beyond. FORECAST DETAILS... Storms today/tonight...expecting the round of rain/storms currently across IA to lift northeastward into Lower MI this morning through mid afternoon. Think the atmosphere has been quite stabilized across northern Michigan after this evening's "fun"...and with stable but murky conditions across the Yoop and WI likely to seep eastward behind a subtle trough axis this morning...which could keep the bulk of the activity south of our area (which is just as well). However...if by some chance the boundary ends up stalling further north or lifts further north quicker than expected...may need to keep an eye on the Manistee River basin this morning, with a little bit of hi-res guidance suggesting it's not impossible there could be 0.25in or so of additional rainfall this morning there. Otherwise...think we will not be as able to achieve instability as we have the last couple days/nights...and may keep things a little tamer, at least for the daytime hours. This being said...if we do manage to break into any sun...low LCLs could become a problem again late, particularly as deep layer shear looks to ramp up again tonight as the LLJ strengthens again...and anticipate another round of stronger storms will remain possible for the latter half of the day into the overnight...though this all depends on the evolution of upstream convection today and tonight ahead of the upstream shortwave axis. Best shot at anything trying to get spicy this afternoon will be near and south of M-72 again, and particularly over toward Saginaw Bay, where things could become uncapped with enough mixing and a northward-enough surge of the warm front today...though some of the more aggressive hi-res guidance would like to develop some activity as far north as the Tip of the Mitt into northeast Lower. Concerning rain today through Thursday...anomalous moisture combined with continued forcing will keep the threat of heavy rain focused across the region. The convective aspect could certainly remain further south, leaving us in a more stratiform area again...and even stratiform rains have potential to be productive, noting the warm cloud layer depth could be close to 3km and supportive of more efficient warm rain processes later this afternoon into tonight. Think the best shot at seeing better accumulations will remain near and south of M-72 (where it is also not needed)...but especially near and south of M-55, with prob guidance highlighting central Lower into Saginaw Bay for an inch or better of rain (70+ percent chance). Not impossible there could be a bit better deformation band/trowal-esque axis tonight, given potential for a more well- defined shortwave trough this time around...and this could favor a shot at a swath of more productive rainfall from late tonight/early Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon. If this idea comes to fruition...it is (unfortunately) possible it may stretch from NW Lower up into perhaps the Tip of the Mitt region, where hi-res probs suggest there is a low-end shot (20 percent or less) at seeing more than an inch of additional rain in 24hrs thru Thursday afternoon. After a brief reprieve late Thursday into part of Friday...our next shot of rain/storms returns Friday night into Saturday. Appears we should be looking at another slug of anomalous moisture as a more dynamic system moves through. Will have to be on the lookout for more heavy rain concerns, which could be focused at times by fgen, particularly along the cold front Saturday, though this feature would be quicker moving (in theory). Attm...long range prob guidance does hint at potential for around an inch of additional precip (likely rain) Friday night through Sunday morning, though attm potential is low (15 percent or less), which could be attributed to some uncertainty in how the convective aspect plays out...and will need to keep an eye on this. Snow potential returns on the backside of the system Saturday night into Sunday as temperatures fall quite dramatically...850mb temps drop back below 0C, and perhaps as low as -10C to -15C by Sunday, which would crank up overlake instability again on brisk northwest to west flow. High temperatures potentially in the 30s on Sunday, combined with overnight lows falling back to or below freezing...could lead to some accumulations. Fortunately this may only be a quick shot of cold air...otherwise, a prolonged period of cold could further complicate our soggy hydro situation up here. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 118 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Expect areas of BR/FG tonight into Wednesday morning with areas of IFR to LIFR CIGs. VSBYs expected to decrease across all terminals, with ~1/2 SM or potentially lower at times for some. VSBYs increase during the day with a few terminals seeing VSBYs slowly improve through the day on Wednesday. Chance for a few -SHRA/VCSH for KMBL up towards KAPN. Generally light winds are expected. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Flood Watch through late Thursday night for MIZ016>018-020>036- 041-042-086>088-095-096-099. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...FEF AVIATION...JLD  229 FXUS66 KSGX 150916 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 216 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .SYNOPSIS... High temperatures will warm to around average today. Stronger onshore flow will spread cooling inland on Thursday with southwest to west winds for the mountains and deserts gusting to 35 to 45 mph. The flow will turn offshore on Friday with warming for the coast and valleys and continued cooling for the deserts. There will be northeast winds along and below the coastal slopes of the mountains gusting to 35 to 45 mph. Warmer with weaker winds for next weekend with high temperatures warming to around 5 to 10 degrees above average on Sunday. Then cooler and breezy early next week as a low pressure system moves toward the California coast. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... .SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)... High temperatures will continue to warm today, warming a degree or two near the coast to around 5 degrees inland. High temperatures for today will be around average, ranging from the upper 60s near the coast to the mid to upper 70s for the Inland Empire with the upper 80s for the lower deserts. A low pressure system moving through the Great Basin and northern Rockies on Thursday will strengthen the onshore flow across southern California. There will be stronger southwest to west winds for the mountains and deserts during the afternoon and evening with gusts to 35 to 45 mph. High temperatures will be a few degrees cooler with high temperatures ranging from the mid to upper 60s near the coast to the lower to mid 70s for the Inland Empire with the mid to upper 60s for the lower deserts. Clouds will increase late tonight into Thursday, then decrease Thursday night. For late Thursday night and Friday, the lower-level flow will become offshore with north to northeast winds along and below the coastal slopes of the mountains gusting to 35 to 45 mph with isolated gusts to 55 mph. High temperatures for the deserts will be several degrees cooler on Friday while the coast and valleys warm 5 to 10 degrees. High temperatures on Friday will be mostly in the 70s for the coast and valleys to around 80 for the western valleys and inland coastal areas with the lower deserts around 80. && .LONG TERM (Saturday through Tuesday)... There will be inland warming during the weekend with weaker winds. High temperatures on Saturday will warm 5 to 10 degrees for inland areas. High temperatures on Sunday will warm another 5 degrees or so for the deserts into the mountains while coastal areas into the western valleys are a few degrees cooler. High temperatures on Sunday will be 5 to 10 degrees above average, ranging from the lower 70s near the coast to the lower to mid 80s for the Inland Empire with the lower deserts in the lower 90s. Cooler and breezy for early next week as a Pacific low pressure system moves toward the California coast. && .AVIATION... 150930Z...Coasts...Patchy low clouds based around 1200-1800 feet MSL are most likely (40% chance at coastal airports) between 13-17Z this morning. Patchy low clouds to redevelop after 06Z overnight into Thursday. Any cigs that form would be 1500-2000 feet MSL. Otherwise...mostly clear and VFR conditions today through tonight. && .MARINE... Wind gusts to reach around 20 kts near San Clemente Island Thursday afternoon and evening. Otherwise, no hazardous marine conditions are expected through Sunday. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...17 AVIATION/MARINE...MM  773 FXUS65 KBOI 150922 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 322 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain, mountain snow and gusty winds on Wednesday, then snow level lowering to valley floors tonight and Thursday morning. - Subfreezing morning temperatures Friday and Saturday in the agricultural areas. - Warmer and drier over the weekend, with another chance of precipitation early next week. && .SHORT TERM /Through Friday Night/... The next strong upper trough from the Gulf of Alaska and surface cold front were approaching our area this morning with another round of moderate to heavy rain and snow today and tonight. At 2 AM MDT the eastward-moving cold front was already onshore in western WA and OR, extending out into the Pacific along 42N. The supporting upper low was near 50/130 near the BC coast and moving southeastward. Radar was already showing areas of light rain and snow in eastern OR and western- most Idaho but little was reaching the ground. But pcpn will increase around sunrise and continue through the day and this evening. This system is colder than the previous one and will lower the snow level to valley floors late tonight and early Thursday morning, but by then most of the pcpn will be ending. The surface cold front is slated to pass through eastern OR this afternoon and western Idaho this evening. Ahead of the front, heaviest pcpn will fall in the Boise Mountains and west Central Idaho Mountains with snow level near 6000 feet, with rain heavy enough to loosen rocks and mud on steep slopes, so travelers should avoid the Banks-Lowman road and similar roads until rain changes to snow this evening. Total pcpn today through Thursday should be 0.75 to 1.25 inch in our northern mountains, and generally 0.25 to 0.75 inch elsewhere, except 0.15 to 0.25 inch in rain-shadowed southern areas. Total snowfall will be 8 to 15 inches above 6000 feet late today through tonight but only 1-3 inches near 5000 feet, including McCall/ID. Pre-frontal southwest to west winds will increase to advisory speeds in the southwest Idaho Highlands, southern Twin Falls County, and in southern Malheur and Harney Counties. A Wind Advisory has been posted for those areas this afternoon and early evening. The frontal passage itself will be marked by a short period of heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms. After that the snow level will lower rapidly and rain will change to snow, with up to an inch accumulation overnight in the Magic Valley but little or none in the Treasure Valley. Thursday will be windy and cold with lingering snow showers as the upper low moves through, then clearing and quite cold Thursday night. A Freeze Watch has been posted for the Treasure Valley and western Magic Valley agricultural valleys for Friday morning and again Saturday morning, but Friday looks like the colder day. Low temperatures Friday will dip as low as 24 degrees in the western Magic Valley which would be a hard freeze, with 27 to 30 degrees in the Treasure Valley, again cold enough to damage young plants unless they are protected. && .LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/... A ridge building in behind the system in the short-term period will allow for dry and milder conditions on Saturday, with temperatures near normal. Saturday morning will be the last morning (in this forecast period at least) with temperatures near or below freezing across the area. Temperatures come Sunday will warm to 5-10 degrees above normal. This next week, guidance continues to resolve a low digging down from the Gulf Alaska and closing off from the main jet stream, but timing continues to be tricky. Over the past few runs, ensemble guidance has continually slowed the system, delaying its arrival into our area. With southerly flow ahead of this low, a slight warming trend would be able to sustain itself into early next week with a slower arrival. The current forecast carries slight precipitation chances come Monday, increasing to 20-40 percent area-wide Tuesday and Wednesday (where the consensus is starting to lean on the low's arrival). Temperatures should be able to maintain the slight warming trend and remain above normal through Tuesday in the southerly flow, before cooling to near normal behind the system. Breezy south/southwest winds are anticipated early next week as the low inches closer, becoming W-NW following its passage. && .AVIATION /06Z Wednesday through Thursday/... Issued 1129 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2026 VFR this evening. Precip NW to SE tonight into Wed, with snow levels 5k-6kft MSL. Low VFR-MVFR in rain, IFR/LIFR in mtn snow. Cold front arriving late Wed aftn/eve, intensifying precip rates, rapidly lowering snow levels from NW to SE, and creating sharp wind shifts. MVFR-LIFR conditions in heavy showers. A 15% chc of lightning with front. Mtns obscured in precip/low cigs. Surface winds: SE-SW 5-15 kt, increasing to 10-20 kt gusts 20-35 kt beginning late Wed AM. Then, W-N 15-30 kt with 25-45 kt gusts with cold front passage Wed PM. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-SW 25-40 kt. KBOI...VFR tonight. Rain showers returning early Wednesday morning with lowering ceilings. MVFR chances increase after Wed/10Z. Strong cold front arrives late Wed afternoon, bringing strong showers, potential for graupel/lightning, sharp wind shift, and temporary MVFR/IFR. Surface winds: SE or variable 3-12 kt. Wind shift around Thu/00Z to NW 15-25 kt with gusts to 25-35 kt. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for IDZ012-014-016. Wind Advisory from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for IDZ015-030. OR...Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for ORZ064. Wind Advisory from noon MDT /11 AM PDT/ today to 8 PM MDT /7 PM PDT/ this evening for ORZ061-063. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...LC LONG TERM....NF AVIATION.....SH  928 FXUS61 KCTP 150924 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 524 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Additional details on today's thunderstorm threat && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Summerlike warmth visits the region this week with near-record daily maxes and daily mins on tap for today and tomorrow. Elevated risk of wildfire spread poss Thu. 2) Several periods of showers and thunderstorms expected during the next few days, with the greatest amount of rainfall likely occurring across northern and western PA. Some storms may be severe, particularly across the northwest late this afternoon and evening. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Summerlike warmth visits the region this week with near-record daily maxes and daily mins on tap for today and tomorrow. Elevated risk of wildfire spread poss Thu. A +2 sigma ridge over the Southeastern US will continue to drive warm air up into the Mid Atlantic and Northeastern US. Temps as of 09z in the 50s and low 60s are still sitting a degree or two above the minT records at IPT and MDT. Record warmth will remain possible through Friday morning. Humidity has accompanied the heat thus far, with dewpoints in the upper 50s and 60s expected again this afternoon. The flow on Thursday will become more SWrly, with more large scale downsloping off the Appalachians resulting in drier air at low levels. RH values in south central PA may dip into the low 20s pct Thu afternoon, which, combined with wind gusts over 20 mph, may result in an elevated risk of wildfire spread, particularly if that area remains rain free today/tonight. We will say goodbye to the warmth for a while come Sunday after a strong cold front knocks temps back to near the freezing mark for the start of next week. ---------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 2: Several periods of showers and thunderstorms expected during the next few days, with the greatest amount of rainfall likely occurring across northern and western PA. Some storms may be severe, particularly across the northwest late this afternoon and evening. A decaying MCS moving from Lake Erie into NW PA has produced wind gusts near 40 kts on the Erie lakeshore. As this system moves east, multiple lines of convection may initiate early this morning as waves in the top of the stable nocturnal boundary layer lift parcels high enough to tap into a few hundred J/kg of elevated instability. Sfc wind gusts will likely be less than 30 kts for most places given the stable sfc layer. This first round of convection will be winding down by 10-11 AM, with a lull in the action expected late morning into early afternoon. This afternoon and evening, new convection is expected to initiate along a west-east quasi stationary boundary and remnant outflow boundaries. Cool temps at mid levels above very warm and moist low levels will result in steep lapse rates with SBCAPE progged above 1000J/kg across much of central PA. With about 30-40 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear, discrete cells and clusters/linear segments will be possible. Storm motions near 40 kts and DCAPE of 500-700 J/kg should be sufficient to produce a respectable threat for damaging winds in the NW this evening. There is also some potential for training convection later this evening into tonight over NW PA as the mean flow becomes aligned with WSW-ENE initiating boundaries and moisture continues to advect in from the SW. Convection allowing models suggest there could be a few stripes of 1-3" of rain across NW PA in areas of repeated heavy rainfall. WPC continues a MRGL ERO for this threat. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A relative minimum in thunderstorm activity is expected through the rest of the night, with only a few showers/isolated thunderstorms showing up on radar as of 06Z. These should largely stay away from any TAF sites, but may get close to UNV. Light winds along with some breaks in the clouds has allowed for locally dense fog to develop across parts of Central PA, and IFR/LIFR conditions are expected at BFD and IPT for much of the night. Confidence is low on visibility restrictions developing anywhere else. LLWS is expected at JST, AOO, and possibly UNV for the rest of the night with a 40 knot low-level jet overhead. An ongoing MCS over Michigan will bring the next round of thunderstorms to the region early this morning. These thunderstorms will weaken as they approach the area, but will enter northwest PA around 11Z. BFD and JST are most likely to see showers and thunderstorms as this line moves through. Conditions should improve to VFR through the morning behind this line for all of Central PA with mainly dry conditions and scattered mid and high clouds. West-southwesterly winds will be sustained at 10 to 15 knots with gusts to 25 knots. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected late this afternoon and into the evening. These storms will be capable of producing strong wind gusts, potentially in excess of 40 knots. Northern and western TAF sites are most likely to see showers and storms later today. Fog formation is possible as rain moves out of the area Wednesday night, with BFD and IPT again being the most likely to see fog. Outlook... Thu...VFR most of the time, but brief restrictions possible in hit and miss showers and thunderstorms, mainly across the north and west. Fri...Restrictions possible early, then improving to VFR in the afternoon. Sat-Sun...Restrictions in SHRA possible. && .CLIMATE... Record high daily maxes and mins are possible this week as summerlike warmth visits the region. Here's a look at the records as they stand right now, with a * indicating that the forecast is equal to or greater than the record. Record High Daily Max / Daily Min... For Harrisburg: April 15: 87* (1941) / 61* (2023) April 16: 89 (2002) / 63* (1941) April 17: 91 (2002) / 60* (2002) For Williamsport: April 15: 86 (1994) / 57* (2023) April 16: 90 (2002) / 55* (2023) April 17: 91 (2002) / 58* (1896) && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Colbert KEY MESSAGES...Banghoff/Colbert DISCUSSION...Banghoff/Colbert AVIATION...Bauco CLIMATE...Colbert  781 FXUS63 KARX 150926 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 426 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of strong to severe storms possible today and tonight, primarily affecting northeast Iowa into southwest Wisconsin with potentially damaging wind and large hail. Isolated tornado threat cannot be ruled out. - Break in storms and rainfall expected Thursday with a line of severe storms possible Friday afternoon and night. While it remains too far out to nail down details, all hazards look possible with enhanced forcing and tapping into the unstable airmass. && .UPDATE... Issued at 420 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A lower confidence dense fog advisory has been issued for parts of central Wisconsin as fog has been slowly spreading southward from northern Wisconsin throughout the night across already saturated ground. Ongoing elevated convection and an expansive anvil shield have resulted in visibilities bouncing around quite a bit at the automated sites, but there looks to be enough of a break in the storms to have at least areas of dense fog through the early morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1217 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Ongoing Early Morning Storms: Tuesday's low level trough abandoned 1" PWATs (GOES derived) across the southeastern 3/4 of the forecast area, permitting the overnight storm threat to lie just south of the forecast area, due to enhanced forcing. Overnight storm initiation observed on DMX/OAX radar is evident of the lingering boundary as DMX VWP light north winds opposes TOP/ICT/EAX 925mb winds of 35+ kts. Fortunately, as the storms progress north towards the forecast area, a drier, colder airmass will limit overall strength. Unfortunately, areas that received heavy rainfall Tuesday night will likely see ongoing storm potential through the early morning hours potentially causing flooding in spots where strongest storms were realized and caused heaviest rainfall. Strong to Severe Storm Threat Today & Tonight: Strong to severe storm threat increases across the southern half of the forecast area this afternoon and evening as a potentially deepening low pushes northeast through the Central Plains towards the Mississippi River Valley. Similar to both Monday and Tuesday, meridional advection of the warmer, moister airmass through the late morning hours increases meager initial storm chances before the unstable airmass takes shape through the afternoon. A feedback loop between the deepening cyclone and the frontal boundary raises questions of duration and northern extent of storms. Therefore, overall confidence remains low due to differing solutions in strength of meso cyclogenesis lifting through northeast Iowa into southwest Wisconsin through the afternoon. Ongoing late morning observations of surface winds and progression of synoptic forcing will iron out further details however. The most locally widespread and potentially strong solution (HRRR/RAP) keeps an open, albeit tightening wave as it nears the forecast area, sufficiently strengthening to abate the drier air attempting to push from northwest to southeast. This solution perpetuates local storm chances across the southern half of the forecast area through the afternoon, evening, tonight, and early Thursday morning. Fortunately, associated temperature sounding profiles show mostly elevated storms, limiting tornado risk with very long, straight, hodographs raising wind threat concerns with secondary hazard of large hail. Although, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out given stretching of vorticity along the near surface frontal boundary. Furthermore, this solution suggests an initially congealed storm mode through the day becoming linear as the dry punch pushes through tonight as the meso low provides additional forcing for storms through Thursday morning. This is an outlier solution at the current juncture and given the proclivity for the HRRR to jog north/south in its solutions depending on initialization time, bears awareness rather than raw belief. Higher confidence situation in storms grazing our southern periphery this afternoon and eventually exiting east through the evening hours as the drier air quickly pushes threats south and east of the forecast area. Regardless, all will depend on previous storms which in turn depend on ongoing storms early this morning seen strewn across central Iowa. Storm Chances Return Friday Afternoon & Night: A break in storm chances on Thursday is expected as shortwave ridging allows today's drier air to the northwest to advect southeast through the local forecast area. Subsequent longwave troughing, seen in GOES WV imagery over the Pacific Northwest is expected to phase through the Central Plains Thursday, enhancing low level moisture transport into the Northern Plains Friday. Therefore, ample forcing and instability progresses east causing linear storm mode across the forecast area Friday. Unfortunately, machine learning severe weather forecast models have drastically increased local probabilities nearing 50% for the southern half of the forecast area. Current confidence is limited due to influence of diurnal heating to potential timing of frontal passage locally. Will require close monitoring in coming forecasts. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1217 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Similar overnight aviation impacts expected as Monday and Tuesday. The warm, moist airmass over the colder ground raises widespread fog concerns, potentially simply MIFG or BCFG instead of full LIFR impacts. Given the very shallow expectations, have opted for IFR visibilities at both TAF sites in a limited window. However, the very shallow nature of saturation limits overall confidence in either LIFR or VFR. Storm chances progress northeast through the forecast area this morning, afternoon, and potentially again tonight. Current confidence keeps impacts south of both TAF sites from northeast Iowa into southwest Wisconsin however any northern shift may result in scattered storms affecting either TAF site. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1217 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Fortunately, heaviest rainfall Tuesday remained south of Monday's heaviest rainfall, easing overall flooding concerns. Therefore, no changes in river flood headlines compared to previous forecasts. Tuesday's rainfall unfortunately slightly affected upstream of more locally flashier rivers in northeast Iowa (Turkey River) southeast Minnesota, and southwest Wisconsin (Kickapoo River). While initial responses on these rivers haven't been overly concerning overnight, subsequent storm chances this morning through tonight raise concern should they frequent these same areas. Similarly, ongoing river flooding in central and west-central Wisconsin is at risk should storms be realized farther north. Short reprieve in local precipitation chances Thursday ceases for Friday as the anomalously moist airmass returns for strong to severe storms pushing southeast. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for WIZ043-044- 055. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ UPDATE...Skow DISCUSSION...JAR AVIATION...JAR HYDROLOGY...JAR  704 FXUS63 KFGF 150937 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 437 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of dense fog thru 14z today. - There is a 20% chance for advisory level winter impacts from accumulating snow and gusty winds late Thursday night into early Saturday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 434 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Area if low clouds remain in parts of NW MN, Detroit Lakes to Park Rapids north to near Thief River Falls and Waskish. But also seeing widespread fog in the clearer areas of far northwest MN Waskish-TRF and north and considerable fog, some dense in eastern ND, not including Devils Lake. Dense fog advisory out for these areas thru 14zz. There were a few very light rain showers that moved east from Bismarck but they look to have dissipated by Jamestown, with pocket of mid clouds with that. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 306 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...Synopsis... Large scale pattern features a split in zonal flow over the Northern Plains, with a mid level shortwave east of our region. Surface high pressure is in place with stratus slowly starting to break up. Additional fog/stratus may redevelop later tonight after the current low clouds clear, with better chances for mainly aviation impacts in north central MN. Deeper westerly flow aloft will support deepening low pressure on the Lee side of the Northern Rockies and increasing southerly flow/WAA Wednesday through Thursday morning. A deepening mid/upper level trough over the Pacific Northwest builds eastward late this week into the weekend. The initial cold front arrives late in the day Thursday and may result in a large spread in potential high temperatures north to south (low 50s to near 80F depending on timing within our CWA). It will also bring chances for rain and snow back to our region from Friday through Saturday. As that trough passes, there is a strong consensus in mid/upper level ridging arriving by early next week, with rising heights reflective of increasing temperatures (60s/70s by Tuesday). This pattern also lowers the probability of measurable precipitation, though the orientation of the ridge/flow aloft may still allow for fast moving shortwave trough passages near our CWA. ...Winter travel impact potential Friday into Saturday... As stronger synoptic ascent and WAA in the 850-700 MB layer overspread our CWA several periods of light to moderate precipitation (mainly rain) should move west to east through our CWA Friday into Saturday morning. All ensembles at this time support the main closed 700MB low tracking over Manitoba, placing the potential for stronger frontogensis to the north, while most precipitation in our CWA will be driven by WAA or broader deformation on the back side of the 500MB low. While there is overall strong consensus on the larger scale track, smaller scale features at the surface (low track/frontal timing) still play a role in the potential for winter impacts. A larger number of ensemble members generally keep temperature profiles in place supportive of liquid with surface temperatures above freezing outside of the overnight/morning periods for most locations (limiting potential for accumulating snow or a wintry mix). In this scenario (80% chance) most areas would see little to no accumulation (better chance for 1" in the Devils Lake Basin). There is still a subset of members (20%) that support more organized deformation while temperature profiles are cold enough for all snow and have better chance for snow totals greater than 3". As ground temperatures are warmer, most of this will tend to be on grassy/elevated surfaces that may limit impacts outside of snow rates/wind reducing visibility where moderate/brief heavy snow would track. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1135 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Really no changes to the 6z set of TAFs from the 0z issuance. Fog will develop tonight, being most likely at KBJI, KTVF and KFAR. Fog may sneak into KGFK for a few hours around sunrise. Timing of fog is approximate in the TAF and it could shift a little earlier or later. For Wednesday, VFR is forecast, with south to southwesterly winds of 10 to 15 knots. Winds die down Wednesday evening. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for NDZ007-008- 016-026>030-038-039-049-052>054. MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MNZ001>009- 013>017-029-030-040. && $$ UPDATE...Riddle DISCUSSION...DJR AVIATION...Rafferty  456 FXAK69 PAFG 150944 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 144 AM AKDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Generally showery weather is likely across Northern Alaska through late this week, with multiple rounds of precipitation moving inland from over the Bering Sea. On the West Coast and in higher elevation areas, most precipitation will remain snow due to colder temperatures, but in the Interior valleys, rain will be possible with any daytime showers with high temperatures in the 30s. Gusty northerly or northeasterly winds will be possible through the next few days on the Chukchi Sea and Bering Sea coasts and in the Brooks Range. There is potential for a weekend system which could bring more widespread precipitation to the area, although there is uncertainty on how much moisture it could bring and how warm it will be. && .KEY WEATHER MESSAGES... Central and Eastern Interior... - Cooler temperatures remain through the end of the week with highs in the 30s and lows in the 20s for most areas. - Scattered snow showers linger across the Central Interior and higher elevations across the Eastern Interior this morning. Accumulations will be very light. - Another round of rain/snow showers across the Interior begins by this afternoon. Rain will be predominant in the warmer valleys with snow predominant overnight and at higher elevations. Snowfall totals generally light with 1 to 3 inches possible. West Coast and Western Interior... - Breezy northeasterly winds will continue through at least Thursday with the strongest winds from the Bering Strait to St. Lawrence Island. Expected gusts 25 to 35 mph. - Light rain, snow, and mixed precipitation will be possible through the end of the week. Precipitation will be most consistent for areas south of the Bering Strait along the West Coast and south of Huslia across the Western Interior. Mostly rain/snow mix is expected today and Thursday during the daytimes. - Temperatures remain cool throughout the week with highs in the 20s and overnight lows in the teens to single digits above zero. North Slope and Brooks Range.. - Scattered snow showers linger across the Brooks Range today and become more isolated thereafter. - Periods of gusty winds on the northwest Arctic Coast continue through the end of the week. Gusts as high as 45 mph are possible between Point Hope and Point Lay. Periods of blowing snow may reduce visibility and make travel difficult. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued. - Cold temperatures continue through the end of the week with highs in the single digits above zero while overnight lows reach as cold as the teens below zero. && .FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION... General ridging is in place over the Gulf of Alaska, with cold troughing over the High Arctic. This is lending to general westerly flow across Alaska, with a fairly progressive flow pattern supporting multiple lows and rounds of precipitation moving into the area out of the Bering Sea. Some gusty northerly / northeasterly winds on the western Arctic Coast are allowing for blowing snow in spots. A shortwave trough over Interior Alaska is helping to produce some light snow showers early this morning and will gradually move eastward and into Canada through the day. Reinforcing shortwaves moving out of the southeastern Bering Sea (coupled with some weak surface troughing) will produce further snowfall in the YK Delta and Lower Yukon Valley this morning before spreading it northeastward into the Central and Eastern Interior by this evening. Precipitation is likely to be scarcer in the Middle Tanana Valley/Fairbanks area, with higher amounts in the Lower Tanana Valley, the White Mountains, along the Dalton Highway, and the Fortymile Country. Highs in the southern half of the Interior the next few days will be in the mid to upper 30s, with upper 20s and low 30s in the northern portions. This will allow for periods of rain with any shower activity during the daytime in these areas. Highs will be generally near or below freezing on the West Coast and in the low single digits on the North Slope, so any precipitation will likely remain snow there. General showery weather will continue through the week and into the weekend as a more amplified trough moves into southwestern Alaska Thursday. This will coincide with troughing over the Arctic dipping southward into the North Slope, with northerly or northeasterly winds increasing across the Chukchi/Bering Sea coasts and Western Brooks Range. && .EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Saturday through Tuesday To start out the extended time frame, showery conditions will be occurring across much of Northern Alaska, with some snowfall just starting to shift north into the southern North Slope. A stronger low over the southern Bering Sea will be moving toward southwestern Alaska on Saturday morning; by Saturday afternoon, most model guidance supports its leading front moving onshore, bringing easterly winds to the Bering Sea coast. It will also bring potentially widespread precipitation, with the chance for a few inches of snow in the Western Interior through the weekend, with higher totals in the higher terrain. Much of the Alaska Range and the southern slopes of the Central Brooks Range could see several inches of snow as well. In valley locations, snow totals could be reduced by daytime changeover to rain during warmer temperatures. After the system moves inland, northerly flow on its west side early next week will allow for colder air to move south across Western Alaska, although the Central/Eastern Interior could also see highs fall to a lesser extent. Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ801. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810. Gale Warning for PKZ811. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812-817-851-854-856-858. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816. Gale Warning for PKZ857. && $$ DS  789 FXUS61 KCAR 150944 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 544 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... - Updated aviation section to cover LIFR conditions at times today. - Removed any mentioning of thunder for Thursday afternoon into Thursday night due to stable SE winds off the cold Gulf of Maine Waters. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Mild weather will continue for the rest of the week with additional rain events Thursday night into Friday and again Sunday into Sunday night. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Mild weather will continue for the rest of the week with additional rain events Thursday night into Friday and again Sunday into Sunday night. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Mild weather is expected to continue for the rest of the week with highs in the low to mid 50s today and Thursday and the mid to upper 50s Friday into the weekend well inland. Coastal communities will be a bit cooler and may have some marine fog on occasion. Small weather systems will bring additional rain with the next system coming Thursday night into Friday morning. This one will give from a quarter inch or less over the north to a half inch or more over the Central Highlands, Bangor Region to Interior Downeast sections of the state. The next rain system will come Sunday into Sunday night when a quarter to a half inch of rain may fall. Sunday night into Monday may feature a wintry mix across the north but significant uncertainty exists on ptypes due to wide range of solutions in boundary layer temperatures in the globals/ensembles. The combination of rainfall and the melting of the remaining snow cover over the far north will likely cause slow rises on the rivers to normal or slightly above normal flows for this time of year. Expecting northern rivers to increase 5-10kcfs above levels currently, on the Penobscot expecting an increase of 5-15kcfs and 1-3kcfs for all other main stem rivers. No river flooding is expected. Ice has flushed on all rivers except the Allagash and St. John Rivers. However, flushing is ongoing right now on those rivers with no significant problems. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Today...LIFR across the south and IFR across the north early this morning, then IFR throughout the region from midday into mid afternoon, dropping to LIFR throughout the area late this afternoon. Tonight...IFR, possibly dropping to LIFR at times. SE winds less than 5 kt. Thursday...IFR to LIFR in the morning, then IFR during the afternoon with a few breaks to MVFR possible in the north. SE wind around 5 kt. Friday...AM IFR/LIFR due to RA/FG becoming MVFR during the day with VFR possible late day. N-NE winds around 5kt. Fri night expecting possible BR/FG and VCSH especially at southern terms. NE winds 5kt or less. Saturday...VFR. MVFR cigs possible especially at BGR and BHB. SE winds 5-15kt. Sunday...MVFR/IFR with RA likely. S winds 10-15kt gusting to 20kt shifting SW late day. && .MARINE... Winds will be light and seas around 2 to 3 ft today, tonight and Thursday. Some fog and mist is likely, especially late tonight into early Thursday morning. Winds/seas expected to remain below SCA conditions through Sunday. Late Sunday night into Monday is the next chance of SCA winds/seas. Rain/fog may reduce vsby Friday then again on Sunday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MB/JS AVIATION...MB/JS  853 FXUS61 KCAR 150950 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 550 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... - Updated aviation section to cover LIFR conditions at times today. - Added patchy drizzle throughout the area early this morning. - Removed any mentioning of thunder for Thursday afternoon into Thursday night due to stable SE winds off the cold Gulf of Maine Waters. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Mild weather will continue for the rest of the week with additional rain events Thursday night into Friday and again Sunday into Sunday night. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Mild weather will continue for the rest of the week with additional rain events Thursday night into Friday and again Sunday into Sunday night. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Mild weather is expected to continue for the rest of the week with highs in the low to mid 50s today and Thursday and the mid to upper 50s Friday into the weekend well inland. Coastal communities will be a bit cooler and may have some marine fog on occasion. Small weather systems will bring additional rain with the next system coming Thursday night into Friday morning. This one will give from a quarter inch or less over the north to a half inch or more over the Central Highlands, Bangor Region to Interior Downeast sections of the state. The next rain system will come Sunday into Sunday night when a quarter to a half inch of rain may fall. Sunday night into Monday may feature a wintry mix across the north but significant uncertainty exists on ptypes due to wide range of solutions in boundary layer temperatures in the globals/ensembles. The combination of rainfall and the melting of the remaining snow cover over the far north will likely cause slow rises on the rivers to normal or slightly above normal flows for this time of year. Expecting northern rivers to increase 5-10kcfs above levels currently, on the Penobscot expecting an increase of 5-15kcfs and 1-3kcfs for all other main stem rivers. No river flooding is expected. Ice has flushed on all rivers except the Allagash and St. John Rivers. However, flushing is ongoing right now on those rivers with no significant problems. && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Today...LIFR across the south and IFR across the north early this morning, then IFR throughout the region from midday into mid afternoon, dropping to LIFR throughout the area late this afternoon. Tonight...IFR, possibly dropping to LIFR at times. SE winds less than 5 kt. Thursday...IFR to LIFR in the morning, then IFR during the afternoon with a few breaks to MVFR possible in the north. SE wind around 5 kt. Friday...AM IFR/LIFR due to RA/FG becoming MVFR during the day with VFR possible late day. N-NE winds around 5kt. Fri night expecting possible BR/FG and VCSH especially at southern terms. NE winds 5kt or less. Saturday...VFR. MVFR cigs possible especially at BGR and BHB. SE winds 5-15kt. Sunday...MVFR/IFR with RA likely. S winds 10-15kt gusting to 20kt shifting SW late day. && .MARINE... Winds will be light and seas around 2 to 3 ft today, tonight and Thursday. Some fog and mist is likely, especially late tonight into early Thursday morning. Winds/seas expected to remain below SCA conditions through Sunday. Late Sunday night into Monday is the next chance of SCA winds/seas. Rain/fog may reduce vsby Friday then again on Sunday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MB/JS AVIATION...MB/JS  715 FXUS65 KPSR 150957 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 257 AM MST Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy to locally windy conditions will return for the back half of the work week with elevated Fire Weather conditions focused around the Lower Colorado River Valley on Friday. - After near normal temperatures through Saturday, daytime highs will warm back into the low to mid 90s for at least Sunday and Monday. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Weak upper level ridging is currently moving into the region from the west, but a large Pacific trough moving into the Pacific Northwest is already beginning to disrupt and flatten the ridge. However, height rises today will be enough to raise daytime highs back into the mid 80s in Phoenix to as warm as the upper 80s across southeast California under sunny skies. The Pacific trough is then forecast to track southeastward into the Great Basin later on Thursday, but any height falls over the Desert Southwest will be late Thursday allowing highs to warm further into the upper 80s to maybe a few spots reaching 90 degrees. The pressure gradient will also begin to tighten Thursday leading to a return of breezy conditions during the afternoon and early evening hours. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Model guidance over the past couple of runs has shifted the track of the Pacific trough a bit farther to the north with the track of the main shortwave across Utah into Colorado. However, it should still be close enough to our area to bring a period of northerly windy conditions down the Lower CO River Valley during the first half of Friday while also resulting in a noticeable cooldown. Wind gusts Friday morning across southeast California and the Lower CO River Valley are likely to reach Advisory level in some spots before gradually weakening during the afternoon hours. Elsewhere Friday, afternoon wind gusts should be similar to Thursday with gusts mostly under 25 mph. The latest NBM forecast highs Friday have actually dropped a degree or two from previous runs with readings in the upper 70s to lower 80s across the western deserts to the lower 80s across south-central Arizona. The weather pattern into the weekend and early next week supports another passing ridge with the expectation this ridge will last a bit longer and have more influence on temperatures. The weekend shows very low RHs with readings dipping into the single digits during the afternoon across the lower deserts, while temperatures warm back to near 90 degrees Saturday before topping out in the low to mid 90s on Sunday. Ensembles then favor a deep Pacific low dropping southward off of Oregon and northern California late Sunday and Monday before eventually moving inland somewhere across the Great Basin or even the Desert Southwest by next Tuesday and/or Wednesday. Assuming this occurs, the system would lower temperatures again going into the middle of next week, but it is unlikely to result in any meaningful precipitation chances. && .AVIATION...Updated at 0515Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No major weather concerns will exist through Wednesday night under clear skies. Confidence is very good that winds in the Phoenix area will obtain an easterly component overnight before shifting back to W/SW early afternoon. Winds across SE California will oscillate generally between S/SE during the day, and W/NW overnight. Extended periods of nearly calm conditions will be common across the entire region. && .FIRE WEATHER... Gradual drying conditions will prevail over the next couple of days as temperatures return into a normal range. Winds today will again be light while MinRHs fall to 10-15%. Thursday will bring an increase in winds by the afternoon with occasional gusts between 20-25 mph for much of the area. MinRHs Thursday will also fall into the upper single digits across the lower deserts. Locally windy conditions across the western districts on Friday are likely to bring elevated to possibly critical fire weather conditions late morning into the afternoon. Warmer temperatures, even drier conditions, but lighter winds are then expected for the coming weekend. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kuhlman LONG TERM...Kuhlman AVIATION...18 FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman  854 FXUS63 KGID 150957 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 457 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - At least spotty, isolated thunderstorms will be possible almost anywhere in our forecast area today, but mostly favoring our Nebraska counties. The majority of this hit-or- miss activity should be weak. However, a few storms could become strong to marginally-severe (perhaps even outside of SPC's current official Marginal Risk area), capable of producing hail up to around the size of quarters, and/or wind gusts up to around 60 MPH. - Following a brief respite from any truly heightened fire weather concerns today, outright-critical conditions return in earnest for Thursday for our entire forecast area (CWA), and a Fire Weather Watch has been issued from 12-10 PM. Unfortunately, a few more upcoming days could also contain critical fire weather concerns (see separate Fire Weather section below for more details). - Although looking short of any High Wind criteria, moderately strong northerly gusts of 40+ MPH still look likely behind Friday's rather sharp cold frontal passage. - Speaking of Friday's cold front, although we still can't completely declare an "all clear" for any stronger thunderstorm threat mainly for our extreme southeastern CWA for late Friday afternoon-evening, models seem to be locking in an a faster-versus-slower cold frontal passage, likely "sparing" our CWA from a more widespread severe threat that should focus at least slightly to our south/east. - With spring vegetative growth roughly 3 WEEKS "ahead of schedule" per traditional growing degree day (GDD) metrics, we will probably need to issue our first Freeze Warnings and/or Frost Advisories of the season for Saturday AM and/or Sunday AM...for at least slightly-sub-freezing temperatures. - Peeking just beyond our official 7-day forecast: Another large-scale low pressure system could bring some rain chances (great news) and MAYBE a severe thunderstorm threat (not great, but far from a "sure thing") around next Wednesday (April 22). && .UPDATE... Issued at 457 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 -- FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE, BIG PICTURE COMMENTS, AND ANY ABBREVIATED LONGER-TERM FORECAST NOTES (for beyond Thursday): - No truly MAJOR forecast changes to speak of versus previous issuance, although high temps for Friday have come down a good 10-ish degrees (and quite possibly not yet enough) over the past 24 hours as models seem to be honing in on a faster cold frontal passage. - For all other longer-term-related notes, the highlights are covered in "Key Messages" above, and all detailed fire weather concerns are in a separate "Fire Weather" section below. -- FOCUS SOLELY ON THE SHORTER-TERM/NEXT 36 HOURS (through Thursday evening): - CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 4 AM: Looking back over the last 12 hours, as expected the vast majority of our CWA was spared any severe storm threat. However, the late afternoon-early evening hours popped a few rogue stronger storms near/just north of a sharp front bisecting our CWA (nickel hail reported in Hordville), while the later evening hours (mainly 10pm-midnight) brought a less surprising, brief flare-up of a few severe storms (including a slightly-elevated supercell) to our far southeastern CWA (mainly affecting Jewell/Mitchell/Thayer counties)...with these storms erupting along the nose of a nocturnal low level jet. In the hours since, the aforementioned strong/severe storms vacated our far southeast counties. the vast majority of our CWA has been dry, with only some spotty showers/brief weak storms focused mainly north of I-80. In the big picture of the mid-upper levels, water vapor satellite and short term model data confirm that a large-scale trough and associated primary low pressure system is pushing ever-near to us, it's main vorticity max (spin) noted right over the NE/KS/CO border area. Meanwhile, at the surface, a roughly 1002 millibar low pressure center currently resides over our extreme southeastern CWA (Mitchell County area). To it's north and northwest, nearly our entire CWA is thus "post-frontal", with generally northerly breezes sustained at least 5-15 MPH. Under a varied mix of clear skies and clouds, low temperatures are forecast to bottom out upper 40s-mid 50s across most of our CWA. - TODAY-EARLY THIS EVENING (through 7-9 PM): Aloft, the aforementioned upper trough/vort max currently to our west will track eastward....directly overhead...over the course of the day, reaching the IA/NE/MO border area by sunset. Meanwhile at the surface, the low pressure center in our far southeast CWA will steadily track/depart east-northeastward today, reaching central IA by evening. With our CWA positioned entirely behind the departing surface low today (resulting in generally 10-20 MPH breezes through much of the day, gradually shifting from more northerly to more westerly), this will clearly "spare" us from the MAIN severe thunderstorm risk within the greater region...particularly any tornado risk...which will focus within the primary low-level instability/CAPE axis extending from IA/MO southwestward into OK/TX. HOWEVER, with residual low-mid level moisture lingering over our area, along with cooler air aloft under the heart of the upper low passing overhead, this is a rather classic setup for at least a few lines/clusters of isolated-to-scattered showers and mostly-weak thunderstorms to gradually translate across our CWA from west-to-east over the course of the day. While we are carrying at least slight (20%) chances for this activity everywhere, the most concentrated coverage should focus over our Nebraska counties. Getting back to severe potential though, while not high, these setups often yield a FEW strong to perhaps marginally-severe storms, and sometimes "random" funnel clouds that rarely touch down. Whether we actually do end up seeing a couple of rogue severe storms will likely depend on just how much instability/CAPE can be realized, with the latest RAP/HRRR tending to keep CAPE mainly 500 J/kg or less, while the NAM suggests a bit higher potential for CAPE to at least approach 1000 J/kg, which would yield a bit greater potential for a few storms with mainly a quarter size hail and perhaps 60 MPH wind threat. This possible strong/marginally-severe storm threat could be rather "random" in area today, and could even start as early as mid-morning. Officially, SPC has only painted roughly the northeast 1/4th of our CWA in it's official Marginal Risk on the initial Day 1 outlook, but in all reality a rogue severe storm could back into our western counties. In summary: although sparse in coverage, a few strong to MAYBE marginally- severe storms cannot be ruled out today, but any such threat (including all rain chances) should exit our far eastern counties by no later than 7-9 PM as the upper low departs. In other departments today: confidence in "exact" high temps is not overly-high and will depend on how much clearing is able to occur under the passing upper wave, but ultimately kept similar to previous forecast with most places aimed 71-74 degrees. - THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT: Once the back edge of any showers/storms clear our far eastern zones by around sunset, confidence is high in a dry overnight under clear skies. In response to surface low pressure developing over the Dakotas, our breezes will swing around to south-southwesterly, but remain fairly light only around 5-10 MPH. If winds end up a little lighter than forecast, would not be surprised to see low temps drop a little colder than forecast, but for now we're calling for 40-46 most areas, with a few upper 30s possible mainly in Valley/Dawson counties. - THURSDAY DAYTIME-EARLY EVENING: Unfortunately, our main concerns swing right back to fire weather (see separate section below for more details). Under plentiful sunshine, southerly winds will steadily increase through the day as surface low pressure rapidly deepens to our west off the Front Range/High Plains, with sustained speeds by afternoon commonly around 20 MPH/gusts at least 25-30 MPH. The resultant low-level warm air advection will boost high temps a good 10-15 degrees warmer than today, with our forecast still aiming for highs mainly 83-86 degrees. South-southeast winds will remain elevated well into the night as the strong surface low pressure arrives into western NE...just ahead of a strong cold front poised to slice through Friday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 251 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Today... The SPC expanded the marginal severe weather risk area into our forecast area along the nearly stationary boundary running from Kearney towards York. We have seen vertical development in the CU field around the Tri-Cities and are getting close to possible thunderstorm development. We could see a few isolated thunderstorms in this narrow frontal zone where moisture has been pooling allowing dewpoints to climb to around 50F. These will mainly be elevated thunderstorms taking advantage of the steep lapse rates, modest MUCAPE values to around 1000 J/KG, and very strong 0-6 km shear (65 kts). Quarter sized hail is the primary threat, but larger DCAPE values over 1200 J/KG suggest that strong wind gusts to 60 mph will also be possible with any of these thunderstorms. Tonight... We could see some scattered showers or even an isolated thunderstorm, but most areas will likely stay dry. However, things could get more interesting during the day on Wednesday. Wednesday... The last two runs (12Z and 18Z) of the RRFS have been indicating thunderstorm development across our western zones around dawn. These thunderstorms then track northeast through the morning, could impact the Tri-Cities, and exit our northeastern forecast area early Wednesday afternoon (likely before 3 PM). Although our forecast area is not currently outlooked for severe weather, it is possible that the severe weather threat area may need to be expanded to include some of our Nebraska counties. The main threat will again be hail and wind through early afternoon. Breezy northwesterly winds in the afternoon along with cooler 60s behind the storm system may result in it feeling not as nice as one might expect. Thursday... This is a high confidence warm day with highs back into the 80s. It should be dry and we have some fire weather concerns, please see the fire weather section below. Friday Through next Weekend... A big open wave upper trough will race across the plains, but the timing is not favorable for our area to see much if any precipitation. An expected Friday morning frontal passage will likely result in falling temperatures on Friday. Our forecast is probably too warm and would not be surprised if see some areas falling into the 40s Friday afternoon. Even if it starts out nice Friday morning across our southeastern zones, it probably won't end very nice behind that cold front. Fire weather is again a concern. Please see the fire weather section below. Monday and Tuesday... The cold will be short lived and we should quickly see a warmer weather pattern return ahead of a developing western United States Trough. That trough could bring us some mid week rain. We'll have to see as it's still a long ways off. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1220 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Can't rule out some isolated-scattered showers over the next few hours, but the better chances tonight look to remain focused to the southeast of the terminal areas. Have VFR conditions the rest of tonight...with winds remaining north-northeasterly around 10-15 MPH. During the daytime hours today, another round of showers/storms will push east through the area, mainly from mid-morning through mid-afternoon. With uncertainties with the overall coverage, kept the mention in a PROB30 group. Also included in that mid-morning through early afternoon group is the potential for MVFR ceilings...though latest run of models have backed off that potential a touch. Precip expected to end by late afternoon, with the rest of this period dry. Winds during the day are expected to turn more northwesterly, then more westerly...some gusts near 25 MPH are not out of the question. Evening hours will bring the potential for more variable wind direction. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 447 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Although spotty pockets of beneficial rain occurred overnight and will continue into today across parts of our forecast area (CWA), the coverage of truly appreciable rain over the coming days continues to look pretty lackluster. As a result, and because spring green-up has yet to fully take hold, we continue to monitor for potentially critical fire weather conditions on some upcoming afternoons. - THURSDAY AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING: Following a brief respite from any truly heightened fire weather concerns today, outright-critical conditions return in earnest for Thursday for our entire forecast area (CWA). As a surface low pressure system deepens to our west, southerly winds will reach solidly-breeze levels...commonly sustained around 20 MPH and gusting at least 25-30 MPH. Meanwhile, as high temperatures again jump back up into the at least the mid-80s, relative humidity (RH) will plunge to 10-20 percent. As a result, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued from 12-10 PM Thursday for our entire forecast area...running a bit later than "usual" given that RH is expected to be slow-to-rise much above 20-30% until after dark. - FRIDAY AFTERNOON: While moderately strong north winds are a certainty as a cold front slices southward through our region (gusts at least 40 MPH likely at times), fortunately the temperature forecast continues to trend cooler with time...keeping RH from really "tanking". In fact, none of our CWA is currently projected to see RH drop below the 20% critical threshold. That being said, primarily our KS counties could see near-critical RH down to at least 25%, so it's still a day with some fire weather concerns. - SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Despite being by far the coolest day of the next week (high temps only in the 50s most places), very dry air will nonetheless drive afternoon RH down to at least 15-25%, while northwest winds gusts at least 25-35 MPH. Thus, solidly near- critical to critical conditions are currently forecast area- wide...but overall-worst in our western half. - SUNDAY-MONDAY: Sunday currently looks like another "one day break" from critical fire weather concerns, thanks mainly to somewhat- lighter winds. However, another warm-up accompanied by gusty south winds makes Monday another early candidate for potentially widespread critical conditions. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087. KS...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for KSZ005>007-017>019. && $$ UPDATE...Pfannkuch DISCUSSION...Wesely AVIATION...ADP FIRE WEATHER...Pfannkuch