070 FXUS65 KRIW 151004 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 404 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A potent late winter storm will sweep across Wyoming through the rest of the week, bringing widespread snowfall to most of the state. Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for the northwest mountains tonight through Friday. - Cold air moves in with the winter storm, with temperatures likely falling below 28 degrees both Friday morning and Saturday morning (90% +). Extent of temperatures below freezing could reach 12 to 15 hours Friday night into Saturday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 109 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 For most of the state, the mild temperatures will belie the abrupt and shift weather shift approaching. Most of the state will again see mild temperatures and gusty winds today, with highs in the 60s. And then the bottom falls out of the forecast. The next winter system is coming ashore along the PacNW this morning, and will already start to spread snowfall into the NW mountains by this afternoon. This snowfall will only increase through the night tonight as the cold air pushes into the state. The main cold front will race across the state during the day Thursday, bringing a stunning drop in temperatures from the low to mid 50s around noon to the upper 30s by 6PM. As the front sweeps through, precipitation will come along as well. Precip will start as rain for the lower elevations briefly, before switching to all snow by early evening. Snow will continue across the state through the night into Friday, continuing through sunset before tapering off. Main forecast issue is how much of the initial snowfall will melt off, due to ground temperatures already being very warm. Putting all these factors together, Have gone ahead and upgraded current Winter WAtches to Winter Storms Warnings for the NW Mountains, including the Wind River Range. Will need to closely monitor the snow forecast for the Bighorns, along with lower elevations of Johnson, Natrona, and Fremont Counties for last minute model shifts for accumulations. As this system sweeps southeast, skies will gradually clear west to east Friday night. The cold pool moving in behind the system is particularly cold for this time of year, and a couple factors will determine just how cold temperatures fall. First is how fast cloud cover clears out, allowing better radiational cooling. Second is if there's any considerable sfc snowpack insulating the cold pool as it moves through. Current forecast is for lows in the mid to upper teens. with clouds clearing sell before sunrise, and snowpack holding for most areas. Current forecast has temperatures in most lower elevations falling below 28 degrees (hard freeze) for 9 to 12 hours. This will have a significant impact on already flowering plant life, animals, lawn sprinkler and irrigation systems, and the like. Please take any and all precautions for a late-season cold snap. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 359 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions should continue through around 20Z for all terminals. An approaching area of low pressure will begin to spread showers into the western mountains this afternoon, with showers possible in vicinity of KJAC starting around 20Z. Precipitation should begin as rain, then transition to snow tonight as colder air moves in behind a cold front. Other showers spread into KPNA and KBPI later tonight. Almost all showers should hold off until after 12Z Thursday in the terminals East of the Divide. Mountain obscurations will be common later today and tonight to the west of the Continental Divide. Wind will increase at all terminals this morning as the low approaches the area. The strongest wind will occur in vicinity of KCPR and KRKS where gusts to over 35 knots will be possible after 18Z. Wind should decrease somewhat at most terminals after sunset but remain strong in vicinity of KCPR through most of the night. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM MDT Friday for WYZ001-002-012. Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM MDT Friday for WYZ014-015. && $$ DISCUSSION...Straub AVIATION...Hattings  071 FXUS62 KRAH 151007 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 610 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 235 AM Wednesday... * NCFS has requested Increased Fire Danger for all of central NC through at least Thursday, but statements (SPS) will only highlight the following day (Wed). && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 235 AM Wednesday... 1) Dry fuels combined with rather breezy and very warm conditions will promote fire weather concerns well into the weekend. 2) An early-season heat wave will result in near record high temperatures through Saturday. 3) A late-weekend pattern transition is expected with a cold frontal passage. Low-end rain chances are expected on Sunday, followed by much cooler temperatures early next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 245 AM Wednesday... KEY MESSAGE 1... Dry fuels combined with rather breezy and very warm conditions will promote fire weather concerns well into the weekend. Strong ridging over the SE will remain locked in place into the weekend before weakening. Therefore, exceptionally very dry and very warm conditions will continue for the next several days. Highs will top out in the upper 80s to lower 90s today and Thursday, with little change Friday and Saturday. SW winds will occasionally be breezy, moreso on Thursday with gusts to 25 mph possible. Expect Increased Fire Danger Statements to be issued daily until things change significantly. Key Message 2: An early-season heat wave is expected to bring near- record high temperatures through Saturday. A strong and persistent area of subtropical high pressure will remain over the Southeast U.S. through most of this period, with only a brief interruption from a weak, dry disturbance on Friday. At the surface, a Bermuda High will promote warm southwesterly winds into central North Carolina. Atmospheric thickness values (1000–850 mb) are forecast to be near the 95th percentile for this time of year, supporting unusually warm conditions. Daily high and low temperatures may approach or even break records. Expect afternoon highs mainly in the lower 90s and overnight lows in the lower to mid-60s—about 15 to 20 degrees above normal. Saturday is likely to be the hottest day, with some locations possibly reaching the mid-90s, which would be close to the warmest temperatures ever recorded in April. Humidity levels should remain relatively manageable, with dew points generally in the lower to mid-50s, and even dipping into the 40s at times, especially in western areas. As a result, heat index values will be slightly lower than the actual air temperatures by a few degrees. Even so, several consecutive days of lower-90s temperatures could pose a risk of heat stress, particularly for sensitive individuals and anyone spending extended time outdoors. Key Message 3: A shift in the weather pattern is expected late this weekend as a cold front moves through. This will bring a slight chance of rain on Sunday, followed by much cooler temperatures early next week. A broad upper-level trough will move eastward from the Plains into the eastern United States over the weekend. Its associated cold front is forecast to pass through central North Carolina on Sunday. This could bring a few showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm. However, current model guidance (including the GFS and ECMWF) suggests the front will move through relatively early in the day, limiting atmospheric instability. Forecast instability values remain low, with only a few hundred J/kg of CAPE expected. In addition, the strongest lift and deepest moisture are expected to stay north of the area, which should keep rainfall amounts light. Ensemble averages indicate totals of around a tenth of an inch or less, meaning little to no improvement in ongoing drought conditions. Behind the front, a noticeably cooler air mass will settle in for Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures are expected to fall below normal, with daytime highs mainly in the upper 60s to lower 70s and overnight lows dropping into the 40s (some 30s are possible Tuesday morning according to some of the latest guidance in the Piedmont). && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... As of 610 AM Wednesday... Sub-tropical high pressure extending across the South Atlantic states will favor a high probability of VFR conditions and SSW surface winds that will strengthen and become occasionally gusty with daytime heating again today (10-20kt). Outlook: Sub-tropical high pressure will favor warm, dry, and VFR conditions in cntl NC through Sat. Light, probably VFR rain will be possible along and behind a cold front that will move across cntl NC early Sunday. && .CLIMATE... All-Time Records for April KGSO: 95 on 4/28/1915 KRDU: 95 on 4/23/1980 and 4/28/1896 KFAY: 96 on 4/12/1930 Record High Temperatures: April 15: KGSO: 90/2006 KRDU: 92/1941 KFAY: 95/2006 April 16: KGSO: 88/2002 KRDU: 92/1941 KFAY: 94/2006 April 17: KGSO: 90/1967 KRDU: 93/1896 KFAY: 92/1941 April 18: KGSO: 90/1976 KRDU: 95/1896 KFAY: 93/1941 April 19: KFAY: 94/1941 Record High Minimum Temperatures: April 15: KGSO: 65/2006 KRDU: 64/1993 April 16: KGSO: 66/2006 KRDU: 64/1912 KFAY: 69/1934 April 17: KGSO: 63/2002 KRDU: 67/1896 KFAY: 66/1921 April 18: KGSO: 66/1909 KRDU: 63/1941 KFAY: 67/2002 April 19: KRDU: 67/1896 KFAY: 67/2002 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Badgett/NP AVIATION...Badgett/MWS CLIMATE...rah  339 FXUS61 KPHI 151007 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 607 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the heat forecast and showers/thunderstorm forecast for this afternoon and evening. Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Another round of showers and thunderstorms move through this evening, mainly north of I-78. A Marginal (1/5) Risk for severe storms is in place for that area. Main concern is damaging wind gusts. 2. Record breaking warmth continues this week with very warm and above normal temperatures continuing through the upcoming weekend. Today and tomorrow will see records fall and will be the warmest days of the stretch with upper 80s/low 90s expected. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Another round of showers and thunderstorms move through this evening, mainly north of I-78. A Marginal (1/5) Risk for severe storms is in place for that area. Main concern is damaging wind gusts. For today, there is another chance for isolated severe weather across portions of eastern PA and northern NJ where a Marginal Risk remains in place for some isolated damaging winds and small hail. However, it is worth noting that this threat is highly conditional depending on how convection evolves from upstream and with any remaining outflow boundaries. An MCS is currently moving through over the Great Lakes and should fizzle later this morning near the Appalachian region. Similar to yesterday, diurnal heating will likely contribute to some reinvigorating of convection in the afternoon to our west and push toward the area in the late afternoon/early evening. The severe threat will ultimately depend on how upstream convection evolves. MLCAPE Values in the northern third of our region should be around 1000-1500 J/kg though with only 20-30 kt of bulk shear. Thinking the timing may not line up perfectly with forcing coming in a bit later closer to sunset as instability is waning, which will be a limiting factor with today's severe threat. Forecast guidance notoriously struggles with these types of scenarios, so confidence on today's threat is low. Thinking the main area to watch over the early evening will be near and north of I-78. In terms of timing with the thunderstorms, it does look to come in a bit later, which as mentioned above will limit the severe threat some. Looking at a window from about 6 PM to Midnight across the northern Lehigh Valley, southern Poconos, and northern NJ. KEY MESSAGE 2...Record breaking warmth continues this week with very warm and above normal temperatures continuing through the upcoming weekend. Today and tomorrow will likely see records fall and will be the warmest days of the stretch with upper 80s/low 90s expected. With high pressure situated over the Atlantic Ocean and the warm front well north of the Mid-Atlantic region, continued warmth is expected for today. Very warm air aloft coupled with warm air at surface levels will allow temperatures to be as much as 15 to 30 degrees above average through the end of the week. Highs today and tomorrow will be in the upper 80s/low 90s. Tomorrow's highs could be a touch cooler with some cloud cover in place. However, still expecting several high temperature and warmest low temperature records to fall over the next two days. See Climate Section to see the daily records for today and tomorrow. Today is set to be the first 90 degree day of the year for most and first since early September. As is typical in spring though, temperatures along/near the coast will be significantly cooler due to the colder sea surface temperatures and diurnal sea breeze. While a weak surface front passes through early Friday morning, temperatures will stay well above normal through the weekend with temps mainly in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Temperatures finally appear to cool back toward seasonable levels early next week. Not only will it be very warm over the course of the week, but it will also remain mainly dry. This is of elevated concern for ongoing drought/abnormally dry conditions over much of the area, which will likely only get worse after this week. Rain chances are in the forecast north/west of the I-95 corridor for this evening and Thursday Night, but rainfall amounts are minimal. Showers move through on Friday region-wide but QPF is only a few hundredths. More widespread and wetting rain (0.10" or greater) could come on Sunday. Flow will generally be out of the southwest, which is more favorable in terms of moisture. This will likely hinder the fire weather concerns as min RHs should be above 30%. Winds will generally be light as well, serving as another limiting factor. So, even though it will be warm and dry, fire weather concerns are minimal. && .AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Today...Primarily VFR. Late day/early evening showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop near and north of I-78 which could affect KABE/KRDG (15-25% chance). Bulk of the convection should stay to the north though. I-95 and South Jersey terminals should be well south of any showers/thunderstorms. Southwest winds around 5-10 kt in the morning, increasing to around 10-15 kt in the afternoon, with gusts around 20 kt. Moderate confidence. Tonight...VFR. Showers near KABE/KRDG until about 03z-04z which could result in some restrictions. Southwest winds 5 to 10 kt. Moderate confidence. Thursday...VFR. Southwest winds around 5 to 10 kt. Moderate confidence. Outlook.. Thursday Night through Friday...Primarily VFR. Cannot rule out brief periods of restrictions with any showers moving through (15-30% chance). Friday Night through Saturday...VFR. No significant weather. Saturday Night through Sunday...Primarily VFR. Some restrictions possible (30-50%) with periods of showers moving through. && .MARINE... Sub-SCA conditions expected through Thursday. Winds out of the southwest around 10-20 kt with 2 to 4 foot seas. Outlook... Thursday Night through Saturday Night...No marine headlines expected. Sunday...SCA conditions possible (30-50%) as winds out of the west/southwest near 25 kt and seas nearing 5 feet. && .CLIMATE... Warm temperatures well above normal are expected for the upcoming week. Wednesday is currently projected to be the warmest day, though Tuesday through Thursday could see some records broken depending on the site. Record highs on Tuesday April 14 were tied at Wilmington and Georgetown today, with a record high set in Atlantic City. No record warmest lows were set on Tuesday. Below are record highs and record high minimum temperatures for April 15th through April 16th. Record High Temperatures April 15 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 86/1941 & 1994 AC Airport (ACY) 90/1967 AC Marina (55N) 86/1941 Georgetown (GED) 86/1960 & 2024 Mount Pocono (MPO) 82/1941 Philadelphia (PHL) 88/1941 Reading (RDG) 86/1941 & 1994 Trenton (TTN) 87/1994 Wilmington (ILG) 86/1896 Record Warmest Low Temperatures April 15 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 59/2002 AC Airport (ACY) 61/2002 AC Marina (55N) 59/2006 Georgetown (GED) 65/2002 Mount Pocono (MPO) 58/2002 Philadelphia (PHL) 64/2002 Reading (RDG) 64/1938 Trenton (TTN) 63/2002 Wilmington (ILG) 62/2002 Record High Temperatures April 16 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 90/2012 AC Airport (ACY) 89/2002 AC Marina (55N) 88/2002 Georgetown (GED) 89/2002 Mount Pocono (MPO) 85/2002 Philadelphia (PHL) 90/2002 Reading (RDG) 90/2012 Trenton (TTN) 91/2012 Wilmington (ILG) 92/1896 Record Warmest Low Temperatures April 16 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 60/1941 AC Airport (ACY) 62/2002 AC Marina (55N) 64/2002 Georgetown (GED) 65/2012 Mount Pocono (MPO) 56/2002 Philadelphia (PHL) 62/2002 Reading (RDG) 65/1941 Trenton (TTN) 62/2002 Wilmington (ILG) 63/2002 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DeSilva/Hoeflich AVIATION...Hoeflich MARINE...Hoeflich  229 FXUS62 KCHS 151010 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 610 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The Aviation Section has been updated for the 15/12z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Dry weather and above-normal temperatures will continue through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry weather and above-normal temperatures will continue through the weekend. Prominent ridging aloft and subtropical high pressure at the surface will continue to support dry weather and above-normal temperatures through the weekend. Temperatures will range into the upper 80s to low 90s this afternoon and through the weekend. These values would be on the order of 10 degrees (or more) above normal. High temperatures could approach the daily records today, with the best chances of reaching records on Friday and Saturday (see Climate section below). The beaches will feel considerably cooler (possibly 10 to 15 degrees cooler) with onshore flow and water temperatures remaining in the mid-60s. The combination of well above normal temperatures and no rainfall will only serve to further worsen ongoing Extreme (D3) drought conditions highlighted by the U.S. Drought Monitor. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 15/12z TAF Discussion: KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR through 16/12z. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR. && .MARINE... Atlantic high pressure centered well offshore will maintain a southerly flow regime into Saturday. This pattern favors robust sea breeze surges each afternoon with the highest winds remaining confined to areas near the land/sea interface as well as the Charleston Harbor during the mid-afternoon to early evening hours. Gusts in these areas could reach as high as 20 kt at times. A strong cold front is expected to push across the coastal waters Sunday which will bring a dramatic increase in both winds and seas, likely reaching as high as 25-30 kt with gusts near gale force. Small Craft Advisories will most certainly be needed with Gale Watches/Warnings possible, especially over the 20-60 NM offshore zones. Rip Currents: A moderate risk of rip currents is in place for all beaches through Thursday. The combination of 2-3 ft swell with a period of ~10 seconds, moderate onshore winds and an increasing astronomical influence from an approaching full moon will be enough to support a higher rip current risk. An elevated risk for rip currents will likely persist into the weekend and especially into early next week as a pinched gradient, northeast wind event develops behind a strong cold front. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: April 16: KSAV: 92/1967 April 17: KCHS: 91/1967 KCXM: 86/2006 KSAV: 95/1967 April 18: KCHS: 92/1967 KSAV: 93/1967 April 19: KSAV: 92/1968 Record High Minimum Temperatures: April 19: KCHS: 66/1975 KSAV: 69/1880 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Dennis  657 FXUS63 KDDC 151010 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 510 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Increased fire weather risk Thursday to at least Near-Critical conditions as dry south winds resume west of Highway 283 with a Fire Weather Watch in effect. - A more significant Critical Fire day likely west of the dryline on Friday (especially west of Highway 283) with severe weather risk east of the dryline (15% combined severe outlook east of Coldwater to Great Bend line). - Sub-freezing temperatures likely Saturday and/or Sunday morning as cold air mass drives south behind significant spring storm system. - Continued serious fire weather risk into next week with very dry conditions. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1233 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 The pattern is headlined by a deep trough situated over the Rockies and tilted westward with height. The corresponding surface low has just reach overhead of SW Kansas. The dryline has bisected Kansas and marginal storms formed along it earlier in the afternoon. With the exception of Friday, the CWA is forecasted to see more very dry weather and serious-to-critcal fire weather conditions all week. Wednesday has highs forecast to be around 10 degrees cooler than Tuesday before quickly warming back up on Thursday back into the 80s. Similar to Tuesday, marginally severe storms may clip the far southeastern portion of the CWA namely Barber county. Most, if not all, will occur completely east of the area. With the lower highs, the relative humidities will not drop as far with only far SW Kansas reaching 10-15%. However, even with winds blending the 75th-90th via ensembles, gusts remain shy of fire weather headline criteria. Thursday will be even drier with relative humidities as low as 7%. with nearly all of SW Kansas seeing <15%. The biggest question is if/where winds will be strong enough to warrant Red Flag Warning criteria. The current forecast only has areas near the CO/KS border nearing criteria. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect Thursday from noon to 9 PM CDT for the far SW Kansas. Winds are forecast from the south/southwest at 10-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. This will result in serious conditions due to the very dry conditions. Friday will again host serious fire weather conditions in addition to a severe weather risk across the eastern zones. Ahead of the advancing low pressure trough, coupled jets, a warm and moist airmass, and strong forcing will allow for a potentially widespread and significant severe weather threat. For the CWA's perspective, a critical aspect is where the dryline sets up. The current forecast is that the dryline will reside between Dodge City and Pratt. Ensembles have agreement situating it near the Highway 183 corridor. In the coming days, it will be integral to see if this moves, and if the storms will have enough time in the CWA to mature and reach severe thresholds before moving eastward out of the area. With the system, a strong cold front is forecast to drop temperatures significantly and pushing lows in the western counties towards or below freezing. Highs Saturday are only forecast to warm up to the 60s. Even with the cooler temperatures on Saturday, relative humidities are still forecast to be very dry down to 8-20%. The next few days are similar with the main focus solely on fire weather. The 8-20% relative humidity minimums are expected to linger deep into next week with winds from 10-20 mph and gusts up to 30 mph. With little to no moisture expected, the dry and fire weather conditions are forecast to stay for the foreseeable future and pose a tangible threat. Take proper fire weather precautions all week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 507 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 West to northwest winds at 10 to 15 knots can be expected today across southwest Kansas as a cold front moves south and east of the area. After 00z Thursday, these winds will decrease to less than 10 knots and will become southerly after 06z Thursday as a surface high/ridge builds across western Kansas. VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for KSZ061>063-074>077-084>087. && $$ DISCUSSION...KBJ AVIATION...Burgert  929 FXUS63 KIWX 151010 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 610 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue through today, though the potential for severe weather remains uncertain with intensity dependent on how previous activity evolves. - Additional chances for showers and thunderstorms exist Thursday through Saturday, with potential for severe weather dependent on the previous thunderstorm activity. - A Flood Watch remains in effect through this evening as swaths of locally heavy rain is expected on already saturated grounds and high river and lake levels. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1257 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 While a primary trough will lift out of the Rockies into the central plains over the coming 12-18 hours, multiple embedded waves ahead of this trough through the active flow aloft will continue to produce periods of shower and thunderstorm activity across the region today. Forecast soundings depict fairly saturated atmospheric profiles with precipitable water values exceeding 1.2-1.4 inches, which will aid in producing heavy rainfall rates with any thunderstorm that develops. A Flood Watch remains in effect through this evening for the northern half of the forecast area given the potential for heavy rain, though a flooding threat cannot be ruled out further south. The severe thunderstorm threat remains complicated today with instability looking more difficult to come by as early morning convective debris and intermittent shower activity will limit CAPE values. That said, strong mid- level flow with 40-50 knots of 0-6km shear will be more than sufficient for organized convection if adequate surface heating and subsequent destabilization occurs. For now the severe threat today looks conditional but worth watching. A sharper trough moves through the area on Thursday bringing additional chances for showers and thunderstorms. Strong shear and adequate instability should bring another day of at least a marginal severe threat. Attention will then turn to the likely arrival of a much deeper trough by this weekend, which has triggered an early highlight by SPC for severe weather potential on Saturday. A sharp cool-down and gusty winds behind the associated cold front is likely on Sunday, with a moderation in temperatures through the first half of next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 603 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 MVFR/IFR vsbys and MVFR cigs in scattered thunderstorms today for both sites mainly between 16z-21z Wed for both TAF sites and again between 06z-08z Thu for KSBN. Southwesterly winds around 10 kts with stronger gusts around 25kts with thunderstorm outflows. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Flood Watch through this evening for INZ005>009-012-014-103- 104-116-203-204-216. OH...Flood Watch through this evening for OHZ001-002-004-005. MI...Flood Watch through this evening for MIZ078>081-177-277. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Edwards AVIATION...Andersen  267 FXUS64 KOHX 151012 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 512 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 511 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - There is an enhanced fire danger this afternoon due to dry fuels, low RH values and gusty winds. - Expect unseasonal warmth to last through Saturday. - There are medium to high rain/storm chances Thursday and Thursday evening, and again this weekend. Severe weather threat is low. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday Night) Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Upper ridging influences will continue on Wednesday with dry, warm, and breezy conditions. This will continue the enhanced fire risk with drier than average fuels for this time of year. RH values will drop below 30% during the afternoon with 10-15 mph winds. A shortwave trough will approach the area Wednesday night with a low chance of a shower prior to 12z. The higher rain chances will be after sunrise on Thursday with medium to high chances through the day. There is a low chance that a couple additional storms develop over west Tennessee in the afternoon and move into our western counties. Some cooler mid level temperatures will be in place during the afternoon providing some steeper lapse rates along with 30-35 kts of effective bulk shear. IF storms manage to develop in the afternoon and make it into our western part of the CWA, there is a low chance they could produce gusty winds and large hail. This is a low conditional threat for our western counties but CAMS are favoring any afternoon storm development to stay in west Tennessee. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Behind the shortwave, upper ridging slides back in with highs in the mid to upper 80s on Friday. Some locations may even touch 90 degrees. A cold front will approach from the west on Saturday with showers and a couple storms ahead of it. Rain chances will increase Saturday afternoon and continue Saturday night. Behind the front, temperatures will be cooler on Sunday with highs in the 60s and lows in the upper 30s to low 40s Sunday night. Temperatures will begin to rebound on Monday as high pressure slides east of the area and weak southerly flow returns. While we do have a couple of rain chances over the next seven days, amounts will not do much to put a dent in the drought. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 511 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR condition for this TAF cycle. Much like the last couple of days, look for southwest wind gusts of 20-25 kts to pick up around 15Z/Wed and last through 00Z/Thu. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 86 65 82 62 / 0 0 70 40 Clarksville 86 66 81 62 / 0 20 80 40 Crossville 82 60 80 58 / 0 0 50 50 Columbia 85 63 83 60 / 0 0 60 30 Cookeville 82 62 80 60 / 0 0 70 60 Jamestown 83 60 80 58 / 0 0 60 60 Lawrenceburg 83 62 82 61 / 0 0 60 30 Murfreesboro 86 63 84 61 / 0 0 70 40 Waverly 86 67 81 62 / 0 10 80 30 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Reagan LONG TERM....Reagan AVIATION.....Unger  515 FXUS66 KPDT 151013 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 313 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mountain snow will persist through Thursday morning - Breezy conditions in the lower elevations through Thursday - Near to below freezing morning lows Thursday and Friday for the lower elevations && .DISCUSSION...Today through Thursday: Satellite and regional radar imagery show a cold front slowly pushing southeast across the PacNW this early morning, with snow showers along the Cascade crest and across the Blue mountains. The cold front has mostly stalled along the Cascade crest this morning, which has resulted in moderate snow showers impacting the Cascade passes. The cold front is expected to pass over the Cascade crest later this morning and continue to push southeast across the forecast area through this evening, while a closed low is expected to arrive to the region by this afternoon. The best chances for precipitation in the lower elevations will be associated with the frontal passage today, with many locations only seeing rain throughout the day. However, snow levels plummeting to around 2kft behind the frontal boundary and anticipated post-frontal showers will bring chances (30-40%) of light snow to portions of central OR this evening. By tonight, the upper low will move over the forecast area, cutting off precip chances in the lower elevations. AS for the mountains, moderate to locally heavy snow showers will continue to develop across the Cascade crest and the northern Blues through this evening, with snow tapering off late tonight into Thursday morning. Multiple winter weather headlines are in effect today through tonight and early Thursday morning in anticipation of impacts from the heavy mountain snow. There remains high confidence (85-90%) in snow accumulations totaling between 6-12 inches for the OR Cascade east slopes above 4000 feet, 4-8 inches for the upper east slopes of the WA Cascade east slopes, and 5-10 inches for the Northern Blues above 4500 feet. The heaviest snow accumulations are expected to occur with the cold front passage this morning, becoming light to locally moderate through the remainder of today. Breezy winds will continue to impact the region through Thursday as the cold front passage and continued cold air advection into the forecast area result in tightened pressure gradients. Confidence is moderate-high (60-85%) that westerly winds will remain between 15-30mph and gusts 25-45mph. That said, wind-prone areas in the Columbia Basin and Blue mountain foothills will see a 65-85% chance of gusts exceeding 45 mph today as the cold front boundary moves through the region. Otherwise, clearing skies, dry surface conditions, and cold air advection into the region will result in near to below freezing morning temperatures Thursday and Friday. Of particular concern are the Kittitas and Yakima valleys, where there is 80-90% chance of morning lows below freezing both days; the northern Blue mountain foothills of OR are also a concern where there is a 60-80% chance of below freezing lows, especially in areas prone to cold-pooling. Freeze warnings have been issued in these areas for Thursday morning, and will likely need to be reissued for Friday morning. Friday through Tuesday: Ensemble guidance is in good agreement of upper level ridging sliding across the PacNW with dry conditions and light winds by Friday (confidence 75-90%). The forecast area will remain under the influence of the ridge through Saturday, but ensemble members disagree on the evolution of the synoptic pattern Sunday into early next week. That said, there is good agreement in some form of upper low bringing another round of precipitation chances across the PacNW, but confidence is low (15-25%) in timing, intensity, and p-type. Lawhorn/82 && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...VFR conditions initiate for the beginning. Main weather concerns is breezy to locally winds of up to 25-35 knots developing at all sites, mainly in the 10Z-14Z period. MVFR conditions are expected to develop when light to moderate rain showers enter the region, bringing low level cloud decks and 3-5SM of visibility. Conditions are expected to improve by the afternoon hours when the unsettled weather moves out of the region. Breezy wind gusts will linger in most areas with gusts up to 25 knots. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 51 31 54 33 / 90 40 10 0 ALW 51 34 54 35 / 100 60 30 0 PSC 58 34 61 34 / 70 20 0 0 YKM 55 30 59 30 / 30 10 0 0 HRI 56 33 59 34 / 70 20 0 0 ELN 47 29 51 30 / 20 10 0 0 RDM 49 22 49 22 / 90 30 0 0 LGD 49 29 46 30 / 90 60 50 10 GCD 50 26 45 25 / 100 70 50 10 DLS 53 35 57 36 / 80 20 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for WAZ030-522. Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM PDT Thursday for WAZ026-027. OR...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for ORZ502. Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ507. Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ509. && $$ DISCUSSION...82 AVIATION...95  964 FXUS64 KEPZ 151014 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 414 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 343 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Fair and seasonal today, with lighter winds. Westerly breezes bring in drier air, with plenty of sunshine. - Breezy again Thursday, with another bump in winds Friday. Very dry air, with breezy to windy conditions, will bring elevated to critical fire weather conditions. - A frontal boundary moves in for a cooler weekend. Moisture slips in from the east for a low chance of rain on Sunday over areas generally east of the Rio Grande Valley. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 958 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Some pesky light showers continue to develop just S of the Int'l border, so PoPs have been adjusted once again to reflect current radar trends. CAMs have struggled mightily with this activity, which should end around midnight. Rain rates will be light as long as precip reaches the sfc. After a breezy to windy few days early this week, a calmer day is forecast for Wed. The shortwave trough ejects into the central Plains, allowing the pressure gradient to loosen. Some lingering breezes are expected with gusts to 20-25 mph in the afternoon under mainly clear skies. A deep upper trough moves into the northern Rockies on Thu, resulting in SW flow through the column. Lee sfc troughing is generated across the central and southern High Plains with breezy southwest winds forecast. The sfc low is nudged SE on Fri as the base of the trough pushes through the southern Rockies, shifting our winds westerly. Fri looks to be the windiest day of the period, approaching advisory level for the high terrain and east slopes. Blowing dust will be a hazard both Thu and Fri. Dry conditions persist, although some higher clouds may stream in from the subtropical jet. Behind the upper trough will be a sidedoor front that looks to arrive Sat AM, bringing some cooler temps and breezy N-NE winds. The sfc high settles to the east early next week, giving us moist, breezy SE flow off the Gulf for a short time. Low rain chances return as a result Sun/Mon, mainly E of the RGV. There is a disagreement in moisture content between the Euro and GFS ensembles with the GEFS more bullish on moisture and rain chances. Most of the moisture is flushed out into midweek as zonal flow aloft returns. Temperatures will be seasonably mild through Fri, then falling to below normal this weekend behind the front. We'll rebound to above average late in the forecast period. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 343 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions at all terminals for this forecast cycle. Lighter winds today, but with some afternoon breeziness from the SW and W. Drier air moves in for mostly SKC skies through the forecast period. Winds in the 3-8kt range through 16Z...then increasing to 8-12kts with some gusts to 18-22kt through 02Z...then lighter again. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 343 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 For today we get on the backside of the latest passing Pacific low pressure system and weak surface front, with a more relaxed westerly flow pattern back over the region. This will mean a couple of things: Lighter winds, and much drier air moving in on those lighter winds. Thus, for today, a lot of sunshine, temperatures just a few degrees cooler, and very near the daily averages, and a crashing of the minRH this afternoon. So we lose some of the strength of the winds today, but also push out what little moisture the system brought, and replace it with very dry air, and MinRH dropping back into the teens and single-digits. With ERCs near, or just below, average for the date, and winds a bit lower, the drying won't allow for a sharp elevation in fire weather conditions today. However, this is a ONE DAY break in winds, and we reverse course Thursday, and Friday, with wind speeds trending upward, as yet another Pacific trough begins to press toward the region. On Thursday, our western areas, SW lowlands and Gila/Blackrange, will see elevated fire weather conditions as the next Pacific trough begins to deepen to our west. These areas will see a brief afternoon period with winds approaching RFW criteria, as RH will be very low. Areas to the east will be breezy, but should stay below RFW wind criteria. Friday is the day that shows more potential for critical conditions, as models indicate a potential for stronger winds pushing fire weather conditions into RFW conditions possible over our central and eastern areas. We are considering a RF watch for Friday, but will push that off for another forecast cycle to get a better handle on model consistency. But, heads up that Friday will be the day to exercise caution, and stay ready and alert for the potential for more active fire behavior, and faster fire growth. A dry frontal boundary pushes in from the north early Saturday, as Friday's trough exits into the Midwest. This will turn our winds northerly, and allow them to slacken overnight into the morning on Saturday. Saturday will be dry, and cooler, with less winds, easing fire weather concerns. Sunday we see a fetch of moisture move in over Otero, Hudspeth, and El Paso, on return-flow easterly winds. This could allow for some showers to develop over those areas on Sunday. Monday we go back to a deep west flow pattern and flush that moisture back to the east, and return to typical Spring dryness with, seasonal temperatures, and marginally breezy afternoons for much of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 51 83 58 83 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 47 81 53 80 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 43 80 48 78 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 44 80 48 79 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 34 56 38 55 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 47 79 49 77 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 41 72 43 68 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 42 82 48 79 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 40 79 43 76 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 53 82 58 82 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 40 84 49 83 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 49 87 56 87 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 49 76 53 76 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 48 85 55 85 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 44 81 52 80 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 51 81 55 80 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 42 80 46 78 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 40 82 48 81 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 45 83 51 82 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 44 79 48 78 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 37 69 44 68 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 36 67 41 66 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 37 66 41 65 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 34 71 38 69 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 44 77 48 75 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 39 79 43 78 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 36 72 39 68 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 38 74 41 72 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 37 78 41 74 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 39 74 39 70 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 42 74 44 71 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 42 79 46 78 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 41 80 46 78 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 44 80 47 78 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 46 73 46 73 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...14-Bird  163 FXUS66 KLOX 151014 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 314 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .SYNOPSIS...14/125 PM. Dry and warmer weather is expected for the remainder of this week. Gusty northerly winds will develop over much of the area on Thursday, shifting to northeast and becoming focused over Los Angeles and Ventura Counties on Friday. The next chance of rain will be next Monday. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...15/221 AM. A pretty bland weather day today. A weak ridge will be overhead with 572 dam hgts. There will be weak offshore flow in the morning turning onshore in the afternoon (and becoming moderate to the east). Marine layer clouds will be limited to western SBA county and maybe the Long Beach area. Max temps will not change too much and will end up a few degrees blo normal. The upper low associated with the forecast inside slider is not fcst to be much further to the NE than before and only its trof will move down the CA/NV state line. The RRFS came with much less wind which seem reasonable but the NAM still has gusty winds through the i-5 corridor. Low clouds should be pretty minimal again and mostly confined to western SBA county and perhaps the Long Beach area again. There is a chc of an eddy spinning up and if this happens there will be more low clouds than fcst. Thursday actually looks like it will start off mostly cloudy as a grip of mid and high clouds stream over the area. These clouds should slowly move off during the afternoon for SLO, SBA and VTA counties but LA county might have clouds all day. The northerly offshore flow is forecast to bring a few degrees of warming to the LA/VTA csts and VLys and 3 to 5 degrees fore the csts/vlys of SLO and SBA counties. This is a lower confidence fcst, however, due to the amount of high clouds and 6 mb of onshore flow to the east in the afternoon. Would not be surprised if there was only limited or no warming instead. The northerly flow will bring in cool air from the SAn Joaquin Vly and this will cool the far interior by 2 to 4 degrees. High pressure rapidly building into the Great Basin in the wake of the inside slider will quickly switch the onshore flow to the east to offshore. The latest runs suggest about 6 mb. There will be about 4 mb of offshore flow from the north as well. This combined with decent winds at 850 mb should produce an advisory level Santa Ana wind event with 45 to 55 mph gusts through the Santa Ana Wind Corridor (Santa Clarita Vly to the western Santa Monicas). Sunny skies and offshore flow will bring 3 to 6 degrees of warming to the LA/VTA csts/vlys. Cool air from the NE will lower temps across the Antelope Vly by 2 to 4 degrees. The lack of northerly flow over the Santa Ynez range will cool the SBA south coast by 2 to 3 degrees. Most cst/vly max temps will end up in the 70s and lower 80s (The SBA south coast may only reach the upper 60s) .LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...15/221 AM. The upper level flow turns to the west on Saturday. There will still be offshore flow in the morning but it will be weaker than it was on Friday. The weaker flow and lack of upper support means that while there will be canyon winds in the morning they will not be strong enough for an advisory. Skies will be sunny and it will be a very warm day. Look for 1 to 2 degrees of warming across the csts; 3 to 5 degrees in the vlys, while the mtns and interior will see 4 to 8 degrees of warming as the cool air from the interior shuts off. Most max temps will be 6 to 8 degrees above normal. On Sunday offshore flow will be turning onshore as another cold and cut off upper low approaches northern California. The csts and vlys will cool 2 to 4 degrees with the earlier and stronger sea breeze. The interior will actually warm a few degrees. No real resolution to the Monday Tuesday forecast as there is disagreement in the deterministic mdls and a wide spread within the ensembles. The is reflected in the official NBM forecast that shows 48 hours of slight chc pops Monday through Tuesday. With the low to the north the best chc of rain will be north of Pt Conception. LA county currently only has very minimal chances of rain. && .AVIATION...15/0540Z. At 0525Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion. High confidence in VFR conditions for all sites except for: KPRB 30 percent chc LIFR conds 11Z-16Z. KSBP - 20 percent chc LIFR conds 09Z-17Z; KSMX 25 percent chc no low clouds; KSMO and KLAX 30 percent chc LIFR conds 13Z-16Z and KLGB 30 percent chc no low clouds. KLAX...Overall, moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30 percent chc 2SM BR 13Z-16Z. No significant easterly wind component is expected. KBUR...High confidence in CAVU TAF. No wind issues are expected. && .MARINE...15/202 AM. For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Friday, high confidence in a combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas. On Thursday and Thursday night, there is a 40-50% chance of GALE force winds. Most likely across far northern waters & south of Pt Conception. For Saturday through Sunday, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds. For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Thursday, high confidence in SCA level winds during the afternoon and evening hours. 20% chance of GALE force wind gusts Thursday evening. For Friday through Sunday, there is a 20-30% chance of SCA level winds during the afternoon and evening timeframe. For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. High confidence in SCA level winds across western portion of the Santa Barbara Channel thru Thursday night. On Friday, there is a 50-70% chance of SCA level northeast winds from Ventura south to Santa Monica and potentially across the San Pedro Channel. For Saturday thru Sunday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA criteria. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Rorke AVIATION...Rorke MARINE...Black SYNOPSIS...MW weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox  898 FXUS65 KGGW 151020 AFDGGW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 420 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Below normal temperatures Thursday and Friday with gusty NW winds. - Rain tonight with rain changing to snow on Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Surface low pressure over the southern Prairie provinces will remain to our north through this morning. An upper trough dropping into the Pacific Northwest will help to redevelop the surface low over central Montana today. This low will track across eastern Montana tonight with a cold front which will allow colder air to drop into Montana while a moisture stream punches northeast through Montana. Rainfall is expected to begin over the western zones this evening and spread east overnight. Colder air will change the rain to snow over the NW zones Thursday morning, the NE zones Thursday afternoon, and remainder of the forecast area Thursday evening before the precipitation ends Thursday night. The deterministic models were wetter with this latest run and thus slightly higher snow totals. Advisory snowfall is possible across most of Phillips, northern Valley and Daniels counties. System moves out Thursday night with QPF footprints over southern Sask and SE Montana. Temps Thursday night drop into the teens north, low 20s south, about 15 degrees below normal. Surface high will lock in the cold over the area Friday with high temps only reaching the 30s to low 40s, possibly only upper 20s near spots along the Canadian border. Surface high drops to our south while upper ridge moves in for Saturday. Temps should rebound into the 40s east to the 50s west (for highs). The warming trend continues into Sunday with highs mainly in the 60s. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: NBM deviations include: - Increased winds Thursday and Thursday evening - Lowered temps Thursday && .AVIATION... LAST UPDATE: 0430Z FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR today, VFR and MVFR tonight. DISCUSSION: Scattered VFR clouds early this morning with increasing mid and high clouds during the day. The next system moves in tonight with low clouds. KGGW and KOLF will have rain with ceilings lowering to MVFR levels late tonight. KSDY and KGDV will remain VFR tonight with chances for light rain with MVFR ceilings expected after 12z Thursday. WINDS: West, SW or south 5 to 10 knots early this morning becoming west to SW this morning and increasing to 10 to 15 knots this afternoon. Winds will become variable this evening and north to NW 5 to 15 knots overnight. && .GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Lake Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT Thursday for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield- McCone-Petroleum. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow  307 FXUS62 KILM 151021 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 621 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The new airmass building in early next week behind the cold front appears slightly cooler than was thought yesterday. Downward adjustments have been made to forecast temperatures beginning Sunday night. Aviation discussion updated for 12z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Record warm temperatures and persistently dry weather may create fire weather hazards this week. 2) A cold front expected to arrive next Sunday will bring a low chance of showers and a cooler airmass early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Record warm temperatures and persistently dry weather may create fire weather hazards this week. The persistent 500 mb ridge off the Southeast coast should get beaten down temporarily by the passage of an upper level shortwave across the Great Lakes and Mid Atlantic on Friday. This truly is just an upper level feature with no discernible impact at or below 700 mb except for a weakening of the surface Bermuda high well offshore. Unusual warmth will continue through the period with 850 mb temps near +16C today, Thursday, and Friday, then warming to almost +18C on Saturday as the upper ridge expands one final time. This would be at record high values for this time of year at the Morehead City upper air site according to the SPC sounding climatology webpage. Inland high temperatures across Lumberton and the Pee Dee region should touch 90 degrees today, Thursday, and Friday before surging into the lower 90s on Saturday. This looks to be the hottest stretch of the year so far. Along the coast, onshore synoptic winds and/or afternoon seabreeze winds will keep highs a good 6 to 12 degrees cooler than inland locations. Descending air within the ridge and lack of Atlantic inflow (except for along the immediate coast) should allow dewpoints to mix down into the 50s each day with minimum relative humidity falling to 25-30 percent. Seven-day rainfall totals are zero, and totals over the past three weeks are only 10-30 percent of normal, leading to intensifying drought and worsening soil and fuel moisture levels. Elevated Fire Danger statements may continue daily through the end of the week. Record highs today through Saturday: .............Wed Apr 15...Thu Apr 16...Fri Apr 17...Sat Apr 18 Wilmington......92 in 2006...90 in 2006...89 in 2006...93 in 1976 Lumberton.......92 in 2006...93 in 1941...91 in 2006...91 in 1941 Florence........94 in 2006...90 in 2006...93 in 2006...93 in 1981 N Myrtle Beach..90 in 2006...87 in 2006...87 in 1995...89 in 1976 KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front expected to arrive next Sunday will bring a low chance of showers and a cooler airmass early next week. Big changes will begin Sunday with the arrival of a cold front during the day. Timing of this feature has been remarkably consistent among the GFS, Canadian, and ECMWF models for days now. Morning sunshine within the warm pre-frontal airmass Sunday should allow temps to rise well into the 80s ahead of the front. While there will be low level convergence along the front and at least small, uncapped convective instability present, deep moisture is notably lacking. If we're lucky enough to see scattered showers or storms on Sunday, they will likely develop within a thinning ribbon of 850-700 mb Gulf moisture dragged ahead of the upper trough. Rain chances are no higher than 20-30 percent and will decrease rapidly as colder, drier air pushes in behind the front Sunday evening. Model trends over the past 24-48 hours have been toward a deeper upper level trough and colder air building in for Monday. Recent GFS and ECMWF MOS guidance now show Monday's high temperatures topping out only in the 60s. Low temps Sunday night, Monday night, and perhaps even Tuesday night should dip into the 40s giving our air conditioners a welcome break after the past week of unusual heat. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR. Smoke from area wildfire could impact visibility intermittently this morning near coast, but will mix out by late morning as mixing deepens enough for any restrictions to become VFR haze. Winds generally out of the S to SW through TAF period, with gusts to 15 to 20 kts developing behind the sea breeze at coastal terminals in the afternoon. Extended Forecast...Predominantly VFR through the week due to high pressure. Only exception could be some MVFR or even IFR fog heading into sunrise each morning. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...Bermuda High will maintain S to SW winds in the 10 to 15 kt range with a backing from SW to S and spike in winds near shore in the afternoon sea breeze. Inlets could be choppy. Seas will be 2 to 4 ft feet with a longer period easterly swell mixing in. Thursday through Sunday...A summerlike weather pattern will continue through the first half of Sunday as Bermuda high pressure offshore maintains southwesterly winds along the Carolina coast. Although synoptic wind speeds should average 10-12 knots, there will be significant increases each afternoon and evening nearshore due to the seabreeze. GFS and NAM-based Marine MOS guidance suggests 20 kt sustained winds are possible just off Wrightsville Beach Thursday afternoon and evening. Seas will consist of a mix of local wind chop with a southeasterly 10 second swell, averaging about 3 feet in height. Big changes will arrive Sunday afternoon and evening as a cold front pushes off the coast. In addition to a chance for scattered showers or thunderstorms along the front, winds will shift to the north behind the front and increase to at least 20 knots, perhaps reaching Small Craft Advisory thresholds Sunday night. Seas should also build to 3-6 feet within the stronger winds. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for SCZ054-058- 059. MARINE...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...TRA/RGZ KEY MESSAGES...TRA DISCUSSION...TRA AVIATION...RGZ MARINE...TRA/RGZ  244 FXUS62 KFFC 151026 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 626 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New 12Z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 623 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - A Fire Danger Statement is in effect across north Georgia and portions of central Georgia this afternoon. Fire weather concerns will persist this week given the ongoing very dry and warm conditions. - Temperatures will remain well above normal through Saturday. Some daily record highs may be broken. - Rain chances will increase this weekend, but appreciable rainfall is very unlikely, so worsening drought conditions are expected. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 311 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A high pressure regime will maintain its grip over the region today and Thursday. Mid and upper level ridging remains in place over the Southeast, extending from central Gulf towards the Mid-Atlantic. Surface high pressure underneath is also centered over the western Atlantic. Persistent southwesterly low level flow on the back side of the high continues to bring warm air from the Gulf into central and north Georgia. Low temperatures this morning are expected to be in the mid 50s to low 60s across the forecast area. High temperatures this afternoon will be well above normal underneath mostly clear skies, rising to between 10-16 degrees above daily averages and even approaching daily records at the four main climate sites (ATL, AHN, MCN, and CSG), rising into the mid 80s to low 90s. Minimum RH values this afternoon will drop to the 25-30% range. With very dry fuels and drought conditions, another Fire Danger Statement has been issued for portions of north Georgia and east-central Georgia. Winds will remain below Red Flag thresholds today. On Thursday, the ridge axis and the surface high will shift further to the east. Both low and high temperatures will remain similar, with record high temperatures possible once again in the afternoon. A shortwave trough will move across the Great Lakes over the course of the day, with an associated frontal boundary moving across the Tennessee Valley. With the ridge stretching more to the east, it is possible that isolated showers and possibly a thunderstorm could spread into far north Georgia. Slight chance PoPs have been introduced in the northern row of counties late Thursday afternoon into the beginning of the long term period. The frontal boundary is forecast to weaken as it continues south, stalling before reaching the Tennessee/Georgia border as it encounters the ridge. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 311 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Staying Warm and Dry through Saturday: Ensemble guidance generally agrees on the passage of a shortwave trough across the Ohio River Valley and Mid-Atlantic Thursday night into Friday afternoon. Little (if any) rainfall is expected with this feature, as guidance depicts the attendant moisture scouring out as it encounters the ridging in place (plus a lack of appreciable moisture return ahead of the shortwave across the County Warning Area). Very similar to the previous several forecast packages, the National Blend of Models (NBM) brushes far north Georgia with 15% to 20% rain chances on Thursday night. High temperatures are forecast to reach the upper 80s to mid-90s on Friday and Saturday. Better Rain Chances and a Cold Front on Sunday: Ensemble guidance is also in general agreement on a stout longwave trough swinging across the eastern CONUS late Saturday through late Sunday. The low pressure system associated with this feature will drive moisture advection across the Southeast, with precipitable water (PWAT) peaking around the 75th to 90th percentile for this time of year. The cold front associated with this system is expected to support showers and possibly thunderstorms across parts of north and central Georgia late Saturday through Sunday morning. That said, whatever rainfall occurs with this weekend system will very likely not be nearly enough to put a dent in the drought conditions. The cold front will bring a noticeable cool-down Sunday and Monday, although model spread is decently high regarding temperatures on Sunday given the frontal passage. Monday morning lows could be as chilly as the upper 30s and lower 40s, with Monday afternoon highs in the 70s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 623 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Isolated patches of fog are present in central Georgia as the morning begins, though no visibility restrictions are expected at TAF sites before any fog dissipated by 13Z. VFR conditions will persist through the period, with FEW cu between 050-070 anticipated in the afternoon in north Georgia. Winds will be light and variable through the early morning, becoming SW at 5-8 kts by 15Z. Winds will diminish to 4 kts or less after 01Z. //ATL Confidence...12Z Update... High confidence on all elements. King && .CLIMATE... Issued at 623 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Records for 04-15 Max Temperature Min Temperature Station High Low High Low ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 89 1936 50 1952 68 1922 28 1943 KATL 87 1972 45 1903 66 1991 31 1950 1936 KCSG 91 1972 53 1952 69 1972 35 1943 1945 1922 KMCN 91 1972 53 1952 69 1922 31 1907 1936 Records for 04-16 Max Temperature Min Temperature Station High Low High Low ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 88 1930 50 1903 62 1982 30 1943 1925 1945 KATL 86 1896 49 1905 64 1945 32 1962 KCSG 92 1925 61 1961 69 1945 32 1950 1928 KMCN 91 1967 56 1905 67 1972 33 2014 2008 Records for 04-17 Max Temperature Min Temperature Station High Low High Low ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 90 1955 55 1949 63 2006 30 1949 1905 1982 1939 KATL 89 1896 44 1904 66 2024 31 1905 1896 KCSG 91 1955 58 1923 69 2006 32 1949 1925 1922 KMCN 92 1955 52 1904 69 2006 34 1949 Records for 04-18 Max Temperature Min Temperature Station High Low High Low ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 90 1942 54 1902 64 1969 32 1936 1927 KATL 87 2002 50 1983 69 1927 33 1997 1937 1896 KCSG 91 2002 60 2014 69 2006 37 1962 1930 1956 1927 KMCN 90 1967 55 1921 66 1922 33 2001 1955 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 87 61 87 62 / 0 0 0 0 Atlanta 86 62 86 63 / 0 0 0 0 Blairsville 83 56 83 57 / 0 0 0 10 Cartersville 87 60 87 60 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 88 60 87 61 / 0 0 0 0 Gainesville 86 62 86 63 / 0 0 0 0 Macon 88 60 88 61 / 0 0 0 0 Rome 88 58 87 59 / 0 0 10 10 Peachtree City 87 60 86 60 / 0 0 0 0 Vidalia 91 61 92 62 / 0 0 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...King LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...King  575 FXUS65 KVEF 151029 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 329 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Another day of quiet weather before gusty southwesterly winds pick up across the region on Thursday, becoming northerly on Friday. * Ridging returns over the weekend before another weather system brings unsettled weather to the region next week. && .DISCUSSION...Today through Tuesday. Increasing heights over the region will allow temperatures to peak this afternoon a few degrees above seasonal normals under mostly sunny skies. On Thursday, gusty winds pick up across the region as a closed area of low pressure digs southward through the Great Basin. Pre-frontal winds will favor the south-southwest with gust speeds generally between 30 and 40 mph, with stronger speeds in the higher terrain. The cold front will push southward through the region on Thursday, with gusty north winds behind it, which will remain elevated Thursday night into Friday morning with gust speeds generally between 35 and 45 mph. The strongest post-frontal winds will exist along the Colorado River Valley on Friday as topographic enhancement will allow for north gusts to 50 mph, with isolated-to- occasional gusts to 60 mph near Laughlin, Bullhead City, and Katherine Landing (50-60% chance). As a result, Wind Advisories have been hoisted for the region Thursday into Friday. Will continue to assess this system as it approaches to determine if there is a need to upgrade the Colorado River Valley Wind Advisory to a High Wind Warning. At the moment, gusts in excess of 58 mph are expected to be very isolated in space and time. Along with this cold front will be a drop in temperatures between 10 and 12 degrees from Thursday to Friday. Precipitation chances in Lincoln County have decreased substantially, but cannot rule out light rain/snow Thursday night (15-25%). Ridging returns to the region over the weekend, which will allow temperatures to rebound back toward seasonal normals. However, this will be brief, as another weather system drops down from the Gulf of Alaska and toward the western coast. There remain substantial uncertainties regarding timing, strength, and location of this next system, but gusty winds, chances of precipitation, and cooler temperatures return. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package... Light winds will persist through the morning. A period of southeast winds may develop later this morning, but speeds will remain under 8KT. By 21Z, winds will transition southwest and increase, with gusts to around 20KT expected through the afternoon. Gusts will drop around sunset, but elevated south winds at 8-10KT will continue through the night. On Thursday, gusty southwest winds are expected to start in the morning with gusts 20-25KT, then continue to increase to around 30KT in the afternoon. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Light winds will continue through the early morning before west to southwest winds increase in the late morning and afternoon. Widespread gusts of 15- 25KT are expected, including at KBIH where a west push of winds is likely between 23Z and 03Z. Winds will diminish after sunset except around KDAG where west winds at 10-15KT will continue through the night. Occasional high clouds are possible at times but VFR conditions are expected through the period. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Soulat AVIATION...Nickerson For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter  591 FXUS62 KCAE 151032 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 632 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation discussion updated for 12z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1. Well above average temperatures, along with dry weather conditions, will continue into the weekend. - 2. Continued with a limited chance for rain on Sunday, but rainfall would be light and short-lived. - 3. Refreshingly cooler but very dry start to next week. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1: Well above average temperatures, along with dry weather conditions, will continue into the weekend. The daily warm and dry stretch continues with a strong upper ridge remaining in control through Saturday. Each day will pretty much be a rinse and repeat as temperatures climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s through the end of the week, and can not rule out approaching or breaking a daily record high each day. Hottest days should be Friday and Saturday, with guidance into the low to middle 90s for most areas. As we have seen with this pattern, guidance has trended slightly cooler with time, so while some daily records are in play, the April record of 96 in Columbia and Augusta appears unlikely. Key Message 2: Continued with a limited chance for rain on Sunday, but rainfall would be light and short-lived. Upper ridge breaks down by Sunday as a deeper upper trough digs into the eastern portions of the U.S. This will help to drive a cold front into and through the area Sunday. There should be a slight increase in moisture ahead of the front, but not enough to bring widespread needed rain with the strongest moisture convergence and synoptic level pulling well to our north. What may develop and move through is expected to be somewhat scattered and rather light from late morning through the afternoon. The best chance for seeing this still appears as if it will be over the central/northern Midlands Sunday afternoon, with the southern Midlands and the CSRA potentially remaining dry with this front. ECE and NAEFS members prog out less than 20% chance of over 0.1", which checks out well given the climatologically poor nature of this type of front for precip chances. Beyond the low end rain chances, some breezy winds are likely behind the front Sunday afternoon and evening, so continue to monitor for some elevated fire concerns given the ongoing drought conditions. Key Message 3: Refreshingly cooler but very dry start to next week. Little change in the forecast evolution behind the cold front, with a break from the Summerlike temperatures as cool airmass moves into the region to start off next week. Ensembles continue to trend towards near to below average temps throughout the early half of next week as a result. Dry conditions are also expected to continue with notable moisture return to the region expected through at the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. Satellite imagery showing some passing cirrus clouds while surface winds remain light from the south-southwest. Little overall change in the air mass or pattern impacting the region. High pressure remains anchored over the western Atlantic. Winds should pick up to around 8 to 10 knots after 15z with daytime mixing expected with another hot day expected and a dry air mass preventing restrictions. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...High pressure to persist into the weekend with the chance for widespread restrictions remaining low. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...42 AVIATION...23  856 FXUS62 KGSP 151034 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 634 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The aviation discussion was updated for the 12Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Fire weather concerns continue amid a dry and stagnant weather pattern. A Fire Danger Statement has been issued again for Wednesday afternoon for all of western North Carolina and northeast Georgia. Critically low relative humidity and breezy conditions are likely to occur each of the next several afternoons. 2. Hot and dry through Saturday with high temperatures near daily records. A cold front may bring some rainfall to our area on Sunday, but any accumulations will likely be too small to improve drought conditions. Near-normal temperatures are expected early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Key message 1: Fire weather concerns continue amid a dry and stagnant weather pattern. A Fire Danger Statement has been issued again for Wednesday afternoon for all of western North Carolina and northeast Georgia. Critically low relative humidity and breezy conditions are likely to occur each of the next several afternoons. Continued low-level southwesterly flow from a weak Bermuda surface ridge will continue through Thursday. Despite the typical moisture return in this regime, deep boundary layer mixing will continue to tap into very dry air aloft, which will cause dewpoints to mix out during peak heating. Combine that with early Summer-like temperatures and RH values will dip between 25-30% each afternoon. Winds at the top of the boundary layer (<=800mb) will be strong enough to produce breezy conditions (gusts up to 15-20 mph) as well, especially Thursday when the winds uptick slightly with an incoming shortwave from the west. As a result, at least Increased Fire Danger Statements will be issued for western NC and northeast GA this afternoon and Thursday afternoon. Even if the criteria isn't fully met, low RH values, high heat stress, and very dry vegetation will enhance the risk for wildfire development. Expect this threat to linger into Friday and Saturday as well, so daily Fire Danger Statements remain possible through the rest of the week. The Fire Danger Statement for all of western North Carolina was in coordination with the North Carolina Forest Service and is in effect from Noon to 8 PM today. A Fire Danger Statement is in effect from Noon to 8 PM today for northeast Georgia for ongoing dry fuels and RH values getting close to the critical threshold of 30%. A Fire Danger Statement will likely be needed for all of western NC and northeast Georgia again Thursday, as RH may dip a little lower and winds are expected to be gustier out of the SW. Can't rule out a potential Red Flag Warning on Thursday with critical thresholds for low RHs and gustier winds possibly being met. Key message 2: Hot and dry through Saturday with high temperatures near daily records. A cold front may bring some rainfall to our area on Sunday, but any accumulations will likely be too small to improve drought conditions. Near-normal temperatures are expected early next week. Upper ridging will build over the Southeast into Thursday while the Bermuda surface high keeps warm, SLY flow over our area. An embedded upper shortwave trof will move over the Carolinas early Friday, with heights rebounding quickly in its wake. A much broader and deeper upper trof will pass just to our north late Sunday into Monday and push a robust cold front through our area on Sunday. A weaker cold front does approach the western Carolinas late Thursday, however it gets pushed northward by the Bermuda high and washes out over the Appalachians on Friday. I wouldn't rule out a few showers over the NC mtns, mostly along the NC/TN Border region, late Thurs into early Fri, but any precip amounts would be minimal. The more robust front on Sunday has the potential to bring more widespread showers to our area, however the latest model guidance continues to produce little in the way of accumulations outside of the NC mtns and foothills, and accums over those areas are generally less than 0.15 inches. So it's still looking like any precip that we get from this system will have little impact on the current drought. While temperatures will be summer-like and approach daily records through Saturday, the humidity will remain lower. Relative humidity values in the 25 to 35% range are expected each afternoon through the weekend, with values below 20% possible early next week. In addition, gusty winds are expected across our area on Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday which will likely increase the overall fire danger. Fortunately temperatures cool to near-normal behind the cold front on Monday and Tuesday, however the airmass remains very dry. In addition, freezing temperatures are possible over portions of the NC mtns early Monday and frost-producing temperatures are possible early Tuesday. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions will prevail through the 12Z TAF period with periods of thin cirrus. Light southwest winds through this morning will pick up in speed (6-12 kts) by early afternoon, with some low-end gusts possible during peak heating. Winds should subside after sunset and continue out of the southwest. Outlook: VFR prevails the rest of the week and into the weekend. A few low VFR clouds, and perhaps stray SHRA, are possible late Thursday or Thursday night over the Appalachians. && .CLIMATE... RECORDS FOR 04-15 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 89 1972 42 1943 64 1887 23 1907 KCLT 89 1936 46 1889 66 2006 28 1907 KGSP 91 2006 45 1913 69 1922 22 1907 RECORDS FOR 04-16 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 87 2006 42 1905 62 1945 26 1943 KCLT 89 2006 49 1890 64 1998 29 2008 1896 1991 1962 1945 KGSP 88 1888 54 1903 64 1945 24 1907 RECORDS FOR 04-17 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 89 1896 45 1890 63 1927 26 1904 KCLT 94 1896 47 1890 66 1896 30 2018 1949 KGSP 92 2006 51 1904 63 1927 25 1905 RECORDS FOR 04-18 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 90 1896 44 1921 60 1927 28 1905 1891 KCLT 93 1896 45 1983 66 1896 32 2001 KGSP 89 2002 51 1983 66 1927 28 1905 1967 && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from noon EDT today through this evening for GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029. NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from noon EDT today through this evening for NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082- 501>510. SC...None. && $$ CAC/JPT  789 FXUS64 KHUN 151034 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 534 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 323 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Low relative humidity values, dry fuels, and gusty winds will result in elevated fire weather conditions today. - There are low to medium chances (20-50%) of showers and storms on Thursday. - Medium chances (40-60%) of showers and storms return on Saturday. && .NEAR TERM... (Today) Issued at 323 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Mostly clear and mild early this morning, with 08z temperatures in the mid/upper 50s and only a few passing cirrus clouds overhead. The main concern today will the potential once again for elevated fire weather conditions again this afternoon. The combination of high temperatures in the low to mid 80s and dewpoints in the upper 40s to lower 50s will create Min RH values between 25-35 percent. Although winds will be around 10 MPH or less from the southwest, some locally higher gusts up to 15-20 MPH may occur from the late morning through the afternoon hours. Given the very dry fuels, observations will need to be monitored closely and caution continues to be urged. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday Night through Friday Night) Issued at 1040 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Upper level ridging begins to push eastward later on Wednesday as a shortwave approaches the Midwest. This feature will traverse the upper Ohio Valley through the day on Thursday, with another shortwave forming and moving over the mid-Mississippi River Valley Thursday evening. This second shortwave will eventually progress over the lower Ohio Valley and portions of the Tennessee Valley Thursday night into Friday. Upper ridging will then develop over the Southeast quickly in the wake of these shortwaves on Friday. Ultimately, what this means for sensible weather for our local area is a low to medium chance (20-50%) of showers and storms Thursday afternoon and evening, with the highest chances over NW AL. However, as we've been alluding to over the past couple of days, not much rainfall is expected (less than a quarter of an inch). Additionally, while there will be the presence of a 80-90 knot upper jet aloft Thursday afternoon and evening as well as ample bulk shear and some instability, there appears to be a decent cap (CIN) over our area. Therefore, anticipating any storms that develop to be sub-severe. Dry weather (no rain) will then return for Friday. Perhaps the bigger concern will be the increasing temperatures that are forecast to reach the upper 80s to around 90 degrees on Friday. These forecast highs will flirt with record highs for April 17th (90 degrees for Huntsville, 92 degrees for Muscle Shoals; both in 2006). It'll also be warm at night, with lows mostly in the lower 60s. Even though it's not summertime yet, it's still important to remember heat safety as these temperatures are well above the seasonal norm for this time of year. If you have outdoor activities or work outside, make sure to drink plenty of water and take frequent breaks in the shade! && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 1040 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A deepening surface low is predicted to eject northeastward from Lake MI into the James Bay vicinity on Saturday/Saturday night in conjunction with a negatively-tilted shortwave (embedded within a broader trough extending from northern Canada into the southern Plains). Strengthening SSW flow is expected to occur throughout the cyclones warm sector, and will contribute to another warm day featuring highs in the mid 80s for our region. Latest extended range model data continues to suggest that showers and a few thunderstorms may develop by mid-day near a prefrontal surface trough extending from western KY into northern MS, and although some of this activity could spread eastward into the western portion of our CWFA late Saturday afternoon, it appears as if precipitation chances will be highest with passage of the cold front Saturday evening. Forecast soundings still depict a layer of warm/stable air aloft (rooted around 4-6 kft AGL) for much of the day, which should gradually begin to erode Saturday evening as a narrow axis of dewpoints in the l-m 60s surges northward ahead of the front and synoptic scale forcing for ascent strengthens ahead of the approaching 500-mb trough. Should an updraft become sufficiently tall to take advantage of mid-level flow that will be increasing to 50-60 knots, brief strong wind gusts may occur. However, at this point, we expect generally weak/low- topped convection, followed by a 2-4 hour period of light postfrontal rain, with rainfall amounts ranging from 0.10-0.25" (SE) to 0.5-0.75" (NW). Present indications are that rain will end around or shortly before 12Z Sunday in the southeastern portion of the forecast area, with gusty NNW winds advecting a cooler, drier airmass into the region throughout the day. Highs on Sunday will fall back into the m-u 60s (even with abundant sunshine), followed by cool overnight lows in the l-m 40s. Prevailing NW flow aloft to the east of a longwave ridge across the western CONUS will ensure a continuation of dry weather on Monday/Tuesday, although a couple of weak disturbances traveling through the ridge may result in an increase in mid/high-level clouds. Regardless, the onset of SE return flow will lead to a gradual warming trend with highs returning to the mid 70s by the end of the period. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 534 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the period with a mostly clear sky. Winds may become gusty out of the SSW/SW this afternoon between 15-20 kts, before weakening after sunset. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...AMP SHORT TERM....26 LONG TERM....70 AVIATION...AMP.24  591 FXUS61 KBGM 151035 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 635 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes to the forecast. Adjusted precipitation and thunder changes for tomorrow, as guidance continues to show a later onset time of strong to severe storms. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Strong to severe storms are expected tomorrow, starting in the late afternoon to evening. The main threat will be strong to damaging winds. 2) The warm pattern through the week will break down late in the weekend, with much colder air arriving in the late weekend, and extending into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Today will be similar to yesterday, as the area maintains under the ridge flow pattern with shortwaves and MCS' continuing to ride along the ridge. We're currently monitoring the MCS in Michigan, which will be the driver of some early morning convection around sunrise. Ahead of the approaching system, there's a small pocket of CAPE in Western NY that bleeds a little into our western counties for this forecast area. This will likely lead to a line of storms approaching and pushing into the area from the west, but will likely fizzle slowly out as it moves across mainly Central NY and the Twin Tiers. Going into the afternoon, models continue to show that there will be more CAPE than yesterday (>1000J/kg of surface CAPE) and better shear (>40 knots of 0-6 km shear). If the timing of the mid level wave that triggers the storms is like the current model guidance is showing (in the late afternoon to evening), strong to severe storms are likely, and isolated supercells are possible. SPC maintains a Marginal risk across most of Central NY and NE PA for this potential, with a Slight Risk nearby in Central PA. The main potential threats with Wednesday's storms will be strong to isolated damaging winds, some hail, and training storms bringing heavy downpours that could cause isolated flooding. WPC continues a Marginal Risk for excessive rain, and isolated flash flooding across most of the forecast area for the late afternoon through the overnight hours. We will still be in this warm SW flow pattern going into Thursday, with frequent shortwaves bringing rainfall and afternoon storms. Better forcing arrives late in the day along an incoming cold front. There is uncertainty in the amount of CAPE that ultimately materializes, but with temperatures back in the mid-70s to low 80s, and dew points in the low 60s, instability could again reach moderate levels (1000 J/kg +). This time period will need to be watched closely as 0-6km shear remains elevated between 40-50 kts once again over the region. After the cold front pushes through Thursday night into Friday morning, there will be some lingering showers and a chance for a few storms through the day on Friday. However, overall instability and shear are forecast to be much lower on Friday. Temperatures will also come down some, with highs in the mid-60s to mid-70s expected. KEY MESSAGE 2... While this warm, early summer-like pattern persist through the first half of the weekend, the late weekend into early next week has continued to trend cooler, thanks to a trough digging into our area. With the Great Lakes likely warming up some over the rest of this week, it is possible they would be warm enough to generate lake effect snow shower activity with this pattern, as temperature differentials exceed 15C from the lake surface up to the 850mb level. With the anomalously cold air mass in place it appears daytime highs may stay in the 30s to low 40s on Monday. Very cold overnight lows in the 20s are then expected Monday night into Tuesday morning. It then appears a gradual moderating trend will take hold Tuesday into the middle of next week. As of now, the pattern with the cold is looking dry (outside of lake effect). && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A line of showers and thunderstorms will sweep across the region this morning. As the line moves through, winds may become gusty and visibilities will drop to at least MVFR. The rest of the day is looking dry as confidence has increased that the second round of showers/storms will be late in the day, likely not until the evening. Some of the storms could be strong to severe with strong wind gusts. Given the late timing, the severe potential will decrease after sunset so storms should weaken. Still, additional restrictions are expected with this second round of activity. SYR and RME will potentially be too far north for these thunderstorms, so no thunder was included in their TAFs. There is also uncertainty at AVP if the line will extend that far south. For the other terminals, adjustments were made to the Prob30 groups based on updated model guidance. It should be noted that there continues to be uncertainity with the timing. Following the convective line of showers and storms, ceilings will remain in MVFR to Fuel Alt, at least at the CNY terminals. Showers will continue to develop behind the parting line as well, especially at SYR and RME. Winds will become gusty after the morning line of showers moves through with peak gusts around 20 kts. The winds will then become calmer once again this evening and overnight. Wind direction will vary throughout the day, starting out southerly and becoming more westerly in the afternoon. Outlook: Thursday through Friday...Restrictions possible from showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Early morning fog also possible. Saturday...Additional restrictions look to arrive along with showers and storms late in the day Saturday. Sunday...Restrictions possible from showers. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KL AVIATION...BTL  257 FXUS61 KILN 151039 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 639 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, primarily across West Central Ohio. 2) Well above normal temperatures are expected through the rest of the week. Shower and thunderstorm chances continue. Strong cold front moves through this weekend, bringing cooler temperatures Sunday and Monday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1) Amplified mid level flow with s large ridge centered over the southeast CONUS. Active weather pattern as disturbances track around the periphery of this ridge. Strong storms currently tracking thru the Southern Great Lakes associated with an embedded disturbance. A few storms from this system may build south and clip ILN/s northern counties this morning. These storms should be weaker in ILN/s area and elevated and are not expected to pose a widespread severe threat. Focus shifts to strong to severe weather threat this afternoon and early evening. Additional storms are expected to develop in the warm sector with moderate instability with MLCAPE values of 1250-1500 J/KG. Mid level winds of 40-50 KTS will continue to rotate around the periphery of the ridge. Thunderstorm development will likely occur along outflow boundaries in the warm sector with CAM solutions showing convective bands tracking thru the northern half of ILN/s area thru early evening. Exact placement and timing of these bands remains uncertain. ML guidance aligns with the area along and north of I-70, will highlight this threat in HWO. The most favored time between 3 pm and 10 pm and the main threats are damaging winds and large hail. KEY MESSAGE 2) Anomalously warm conditions to continue thru the the remainder of the week and into the first part of this weekend. High temperatures look to run 15 to 20 degrees above normal. Normal high temperatures are in the middle 60s and highs in the upper 70s and 80s will be common. Today's high temperatures look to be close to record values. Record highs for today 4/15: CVG 84 set in 1976, 2010.........Todays forecast 83. DAY 82 set in 2002, 2010, 2017...Todays forecast 83. CMH 84 set in 2010...............Todays forecast 83. A shortwave tracking the the area Thursday will lead to a good chance for thunderstorms. Limited instability may inhibit widespread severe weather. However, locally strong gusts and marginal hail will be possible. Mid level ridging looks to inhibit convection Friday with highs from the upper 70s to the lower 80s. The warm stretch ends this weekend as a strong cold front shifts east through the middle Ohio Valley late Saturday. CAA and gusty westerly winds are likely Sunday with high temperatures from the lower and middle 50s to around 60. Low temperatures Sunday night dip into the 30s as the surface high moves into our area. Frost may be a concern Sunday night and Monday morning. Cool temperatures continue Monday with high from the mid 50s to the lower 60s. && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions expected this morning into the afternoon. A weakening thunderstorm complex is currently moving thru the Southern Great Lakes looks to stay north of the TAF sites this morning. Thunderstorms development is expected later this afternoon into this evening in the moderately unstable airmass. The best coverage of storms looks to occur along and north of the I-70 corridor. Have handled this threat with prob30 at the KDAY, KILN, and KCMH KLCK TAF sites. Can not rule out isold to scattered storms farther south but anticipated coverage is too low to mention in the forecast at this time. Southwest surface winds will gust up to 25 kts this afternoon and then decrease to around 10 kts tonight. A period of low level wind shear will occur across the region after 06Z tonight. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible at times through Thursday, then again Saturday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AR AVIATION...AR  198 FXUS64 KLZK 151039 AAA AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 539 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 141 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 -Isolated storms possible Weds mid-afternoon -Rain chances become more widespread Wed evening into early Thurs morning. -Well above normal temps Friday -Cool down and rain chances increase Saturday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 141 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A lingering line of t'storms is weakening across NW AR early Weds morning. Light showers will persist in the area through pre-sunrise hours. By sunrise PoPs will decrease across the area as the remnants of the complex pull to the north. Rain and t'storm chances will begin to increase again Weds afternoon as a deepening shortwave rounds the base of a shallow H500 trough along the NE/SD border. Southerly flow out ahead of dry line stretching across Central KS to TX will create a favorable environment for isolated storms to form across Central MO and tailing down to Northern AR by mid-afternoon. Straight hodographs will keep tornado risk low with early development. Hailers and splitting cells will be more likely if development can tail far enough south into North Central AR. The more widespread rainfall event will be later in the evening Weds and overnight into Thurs morning. Isolated storms/supercells will develop along the dryline to our W by late-afternoon Weds. As these storms push off the dryline they will become more upscale. If these can remain rooted along the surface a brief all hazards severe threat will be possible in NW AR but will quickly diminish as the line pushes to the east and loses much of its organization. Convection becomes more scattered early Thurs morning as storms run into a very stable SFC to 700mb layer in Estrn AR. Chances for rain will then diminish until later in the week. Well above normal temps will flow into the area Thurs and Fri. Widespread highs in the upper 80s to near 90 will be likely on Fri. Into the weekend a positively tilted trough will swing to neutral across the region. This will bring our next chance of rain across our area. Uncertainty remains on where peak development along the cold front. QPFs >1 inch will be possible where convection does develop Sat into Sun. Behind the cldfrnt temps return closer to normal Sun into Mon, and Min RH values will plummet into the mid to low 20s across the state. Areas that dodge showers this week will likely become very dry. During this same time period winds remain srthly but rather benign around 8-10kts with few to no gusts. This will limit the upper end of fire wx risk, but the critical Min RHs and where meaningfully rain falls will still need to be monitored later into the week. By Tues next week srthly flow will continue across the region and begin increasing Min RH values to above critical thresholds. Temps will begin to increase to above normal again by mid next week as a ridge spreads across Central CONUS. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 535 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Some areas may see some MVFR conditions this morning...but expect CIGs to lift later in the morning. Chances for convection will be possible this morning for NRN terminals...but potential increases this afternoon/evening. While coverage may become more limited...convection potential does increase some for central into SERN sections late tonight/Thu morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 83 66 82 64 / 20 80 70 10 Camden AR 85 64 86 64 / 0 40 40 10 Harrison AR 78 61 80 63 / 70 90 60 10 Hot Springs AR 81 62 82 63 / 20 70 40 10 Little Rock AR 83 66 83 66 / 10 70 60 10 Monticello AR 86 66 86 66 / 0 20 40 10 Mount Ida AR 80 62 82 64 / 30 80 40 10 Mountain Home AR 80 62 81 62 / 60 80 60 0 Newport AR 85 67 83 65 / 10 70 80 10 Pine Bluff AR 85 66 85 65 / 0 50 50 10 Russellville AR 81 63 82 64 / 40 80 60 10 Searcy AR 83 64 83 62 / 10 70 70 10 Stuttgart AR 84 67 84 66 / 0 50 70 10 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...78 AVIATION...62  766 FXUS62 KMHX 151040 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 640 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes made. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Above to well above normal temperatures will prevail through the entire week with the potential for record breaking temperatures each day through Saturday. 2) Drought conditions and elevated fire concerns persist through the end of the week, with the next meaningful chance of rain not until Sunday 3) Cold front to bring a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday, followed by much cooler conditions early next week && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Above normal to near record temperatures continue to be favored into this weekend thanks to a warm southwesterly low- level flow beneath notably strong ridging aloft. This should equate to highs in the upper 80s to near 90 each day inland, with 70s to low 80s along the coast. Temperatures each day may be moderated some by convective debris clouds, but the only real impact here is that it may lower the risk of records being tied or broken at any one location. For perspective, normal highs for mid-April are in the low to mid 70s inland, and upper 60s to low 70s along the coast. We won't be anywhere near those normal values as this stretch of anomalous warmth continues to drag on. Please see the CLIMATE section below for additional information. KEY MESSAGE 2...Drought conditions continue to plague the entire Southeast U.S., with rainfall amounts since March 1 running about 10- 50% of normal. Locally here in ENC, this equates to rainfall totals running about 2-4" below normal over that same time period. Almost all of ENC remains in Severe Drought (D2), with a small part of Martin County in Extreme Drought (D3). To give a little more perspective, most climate sites in the Southeast U.S., including here in ENC, haven't seen measurable precipitation in almost 10 days during what would normally be a wetter time of year. Unusually warm conditions and persistent ridging aloft will only act to exacerbate drought conditions, with meaningful rainfall unlikely through the end of the week. Looking further out in time, longer-range guidance suggests this dry pattern may last at least another 1-2 weeks, with a pattern change possible by late April or early May. Given the ongoing drought, fire weather will continue to be a concern until a more substantial rain event occurs. An Increased Fire Danger statement has been issued for today, and additional statements or fire weather headlines may be needed through the week and into the weekend. Of note, increasing winds ahead of, and behind, this weekend's cold front could be problematic, especially for any fire starts. A statewide burn bans remains in effect for all of North Carolina, with additional fire restrictions beginning today on all four national forests in NC. Please see statements from the Forest Service for additional information. KEY MESSAGE 3...Over the upcoming weekend, the persistent ridging of late is forecast to briefly break down long enough to allow a cold front to move through the Carolinas. There may be just enough low- level moisture advection ahead of the front to support a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. While guidance remains consistent in this potential, rainfall amounts do not look overly impressive or "drought-denting" in any way. The latest ensemble guidance suggests about 0.10"-0.20" of rain. While instability currently looks modest, at best, any thunderstorms that develop could produce higher amounts, but this would be over smaller areas. While instability is currently forecast to be modest, deep layer shear of 30-40kt would be supportive of organized convection. Machine learning guidance shows a fairly weak signal for severe thunderstorm potential, but we'll continue to monitor this risk as the weekend draws closer. Behind the cold front, a substantially cooler airmass will move into the region, with local highs dropping back down closer to what is normal for this time of year. This means highs in the 60s and 70s, with lows dropping back down into the 40s. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Primarily a persistence forecast for aviation interests this morning as pattern remains static from yesterday. High pressure offshore anchored offshore will continue to encourage southwesterly winds through the next few days. Winds will gust up to 15-20 kt beginning mid to late morning as deeper mixing ensues. An active sea breeze bringing a shift to Sly winds as it pushes inland through the afternoon and early evening hours, with a brief window of enhanced gusts near 20 kt immediately behind the boundary. SW winds remain elevated in the overnight hours which will preclude any vis restrictions into Thurs AM. Outlook: Pred VFR conditions expected through the period with a more summertime pattern persisting through the week. Stronger winds likely in the coming days with tightening thermal gradient, most likely felt in the afternoons and evenings. An approaching front on Sunday will likely bring the strongest winds of the period and renewed shower and thunderstorm chances. && .MARINE... The southwesterly flow regime of late is expected to continue for several more days across all ENC waters. Within this regime, wind gusts will occasionally bump up against 25kt (as was observed at several marine observation sites yesterday afternoon and evening). The thermal gradient looks to be a bit stronger today and Thursday, with a bit more frequency to the occurrence of 25kt gusts. This may necessitate a short-fused Small Craft Advisory for a portion of our waters, especially on Thursday. For the coastal waters, seas of 3-5 ft will be common, especially within the persistent and slightly stronger southwest flow pattern. Outlook: South to southwest winds are expected to build over the weekend, especially on Sunday, as a cold front approaches from the west. A period of 25-30kt winds appears likely both ahead of, and behind, the cold front. There continues to be at least a modest signal for gale-force gusts with this front as well. Seas are forecast to peak in the 6-9 ft range with this front. Scattered thunderstorms may accompany the front as well. && .CLIMATE... Record High temps for 4/15 (Wednesday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 94/1972 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 84/1922 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 96/1922 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 80/1964 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 92/1941 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 93/2006 (NCA ASOS) Record High temps for 4/16 (Thursday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 92/1972 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 78/1994 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 92/1972 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 82/2006 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 92/2006 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 91/1972 (NCA ASOS) Record High temps for 4/17 (Friday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 91/1976 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 83/2012 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 92/1972 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 82/1976 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 91/1972 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 91/2006 (NCA ASOS) Record High temps for 4/18 (Saturday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 90/2002 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 82/1995 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 93/2002 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 85/1976 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 92/2002 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 92/1976 (NCA ASOS) Record High temps for 4/19 (Sunday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 91/1985 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 81/1985 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 92/1985 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 82/1976 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 96/1917 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 91/1985 (NCA ASOS) && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ196-204- 205. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RM AVIATION...MS MARINE...RM  401 FXUS61 KAKQ 151040 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 640 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated discussion. No significant forecast changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Record to near-record high temperatures prevail through Thursday. 2) Continued dry with fire weather concerns expected for much of the week. 3) Well above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather continue through Saturday. A stronger cold front brings a chance for showers on Sunday, but it does not look at all like a widespread soaking rain. Many areas likely see less than 0.10". && .DISCUSSION... As of 240 AM EDT Wednesday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Record to near-record high temperatures prevail through Thursday. The overall pattern remains similar to yesterday with surface high pressure still well offshore of the Carolina coast, and strong upper ridging situated from the Gulf coast to Southeast CONUS. The resulting persistent return flow will continue to lock in a very warm, dry SSW flow regime through Thursday. This Bermuda High setup, more typical of early to mid summer, will allow for record to near record high temperatures through Thursday. The primary difference from summer will be MUCH lower dew pts which will keep apparent temperatures at or below actual air temperatures, which is far more comfortable than typical summertime conditions. Today and tomorrow will likely be the hottest days of the week, with widespread lower 90s (and localized mid 90s possible inland...especially today) given increasing 925-850 mb temperatures and continued deep mixing. Highs will be a few degrees cooler on the eastern shore. Some record highs will likely be tied or broken today and potentially Thu. The current records at our long-term climate sites are noted in the climate section below. KEY MESSAGE 2...Continued dry with fire weather concerns expected for much of the week. With high pressure dominating our weather pattern, and no appreciable precipitation expected through the end of the week, fire weather concerns will remain an issue to monitor for much of the rest of the week. After collaboration with VA State Forestry yesterday (Tue), will continue with the Increased Fire Danger Statement for portions of VA today (Wed) where aftn gusts to around 20 mph are co-located with min RH values at or below 30%, along with highs in the low to locally mid 90s. This generally includes all of central and east central VA from the Piedmont to Williamsburg and interior SE VA. The SPS also includes Northampton County, NC as per collaboration with NCFS yesterday. Similar conditions are likely on Thu with minimum RH values averaging 25-30% inland and 30-35% closer to the coast (along with ~20 mph gusts). The wind will be slightly less on Friday with more cloud cover due to a passing shortwave, though very little to no precip is expected and min RH values will be around 25-40%. KEY MESSAGE 3...Well above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather continue through Saturday. A stronger cold front brings a chance for showers on Sunday, but it does not look at all like a widespread soaking rain. Many areas likely see less than 0.10". Slightly cooler mid 80s to around 90F on Friday as a weak shortwave brings more cloud cover to the area. Moisture return ahead of this feature will be meager, so only isolated showers are possible on Friday with that shortwave (mainly confined to the far N). Rain amounts will likely be a few hundredths of an inch at best, and most areas will stay dry. Ensemble probs of 0.01" of rain on Friday are 30% at most across northern portions of the FA. One last very warm/hot and dry day on Saturday (lower 90s inland) as upper heights build again. The global models and ensembles show continuity and high confidence that a stronger front crosses the area on Sunday as low pressure tracks into Ontario/Quebec. While moisture return ahead of this front will be better than what is expected on Friday, it does not look promising for a widespread soaking rain. Scattered showers are possible during the day, with a low chc of a tstm. Most of the precip looks to fall behind the front. Depending on the timing of the FROPA Sunday, afternoon temps could drop into the 60s or even 50s, which could easily yield 24 hour temp changes on the order of 30 degrees F. Ensemble probs of 0.10"+ of rain have increased slightly (to 40-70% across most areas), and are highest NE/lowest SW. Cooler wx returns behind the front early next week, with highs mainly in the 60s to near 70F and lows down into the mid 30s to mid 40s for Mon night/Tue AM. Can't completely rule out frost well inland next Tue AM as high pressure settles over the area. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 640 AM EDT Wednesday... High pressure offshore of the region will favor VFR conditions through the 12z/15 TAF period and beyond. Skies will be mostly clear outside of high clouds through the period. SW winds average 5 to 10 knots this morning, increasing to ~10 to 12 knots by midday/aftn with gusts to around 20 knots. Outlook: VFR and dry conditions are expected to prevail through Saturday. Mainly S-SW winds also prevail throughout the forecast period, as high pressure settles over the western Atlantic. && .MARINE... As of 240 AM EDT Wednesday... - Sub-SCA conditions are expected to prevail through much of the week with a brief surge in winds Thursday night. - Next round of potential elevated marine conditions return by the end of the weekend. Morning weather analysis 1022mb high pressure continuing to sit off the southeast coast. This is allowing SW winds to prevail around 10 to 15kt across all waters. These winds will continue to prevail through at least Thursday evening. Will note, there could be brief periods of 20 kt gusts especially across the nearshore waters due to day time heating. Waves are remaining between 1-2ft across the bay and 3-4ft across the oceans. A weak cold front is forecasted to move over the waters Thursday evening into Friday. The pressure gradient ahead the front is progged to slightly tighten. This will assist in increasing the winds around 15 to 20kt with the highest winds over the ocean. Seas will build to roughly 4ft and perhaps 5ft around 20nm. A brief SCA cannot ruled out during this time frame. However, confidence is low given the marginal conditions. Looking towards the weekend benign marine conditions are forecasted both Friday and Saturday. By Sunday, a much stronger cold front is progged to move through the waters brining SCA conditions lasting through Monday with the additional surge of cooler and drier air. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temps for 4/15 - 4/18 Record Record Record Record High/Yr High/Yr High/Yr High/Yr Location 4/15 4/16 4/17 4/18 -------- ----- ------ ------ ------ Richmond 92 (1941) 93 (1976) 96 (1976) 95 (1976) Norfolk 90 (2024) 91 (1976) 93 (2002) 95 (1896) Salisbury 87 (1941) 89 (1976) 92 (2002) 90 (1976) Eliz. City 91 (1941) 90 (1941) 92 (1976) 91 (1941) Record High Min Temps for 4/15 - 4/18 Record Record Record Record High High High High Min T/Yr Min T/Yr Min T/Yr Min T/Yr Location 4/15 4/16 4/17 4/18 -------- ---- ----- ------ ------ Richmond 64 (2018) 64 (1912) 65 (1912) 64 (2002) Norfolk 68 (1941) 66 (2017) 68 (2002) 68 (2002) Salisbury 64 (2002) 63 (2017) 64 (2002) 65 (1918) Eliz. City 68 (1974) 68 (1994) 68 (1945) 65 (2002) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from 11 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ012. VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from 11 AM EDT this morning through this evening for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075-076-079>083- 087>090-092-093-509>522. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ERI/LKB AVIATION...AJB/ERI MARINE...HET CLIMATE...MAM  036 FXUS63 KIND 151042 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 642 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Active pattern this week with near daily chances for showers and storms. Friday likely to be the driest day of the week. - A few rounds of storms expected this afternoon into tonight across Central and North Central Indiana. A few storms may be severe with damaging winds as the main threat. - Near record warm temperatures expected through Saturday with multiple days in the 80s and lows in the 60s. - Much cooler Sunday into early next week with the potential for frost. && .DISCUSSION (Today through Tuesday)... Issued at 319 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 An active weather pattern continues for the region this week with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms forecast to move through Central Indiana. Nearly the same synoptic set up is over the Great Lakes and Midwest as the past several days as a strong southwesterly baroclinc zone has set up from the Plains into the Great Lakes. This semi-blocking pattern will remain in place through the week with the most active period for Central Indiana tomorrow afternoon through early Thursday then again on Saturday. The pattern features a modest 80-90 kt southwesterly upper jet extending from West Texas to the Great Lakes with several embedded shortwaves. Underneath the baroclinic zone, these embedded shortwaves have kept an elongated surface low/boundary from the Texas Panhandle through Wisconsin, placing Central Indiana well within the overall warm sector. A strong nocturnal low level jet (LLJ) redevelops each night over Indiana, feeding the multiple complexes of storms riding around the periphery of the overall system. Based on where Indiana is located within the warm sector, the best forcing for ascent and storm complexes remains closer to the synoptic features to the north and west. However as these overnight MCSs die, their leftover outflow boundaries sag southward into Central Indiana. This exact scenario occurred yesterday with afternoon storms developing along these remnant boundaries. CAMs guidance does not do well in these weakly forced set ups with remnant outflow boundaries; therefore, much of the short term forecast will be based off persistence, observations, and how everything evolves upstream. The short term forecast will be lower confidence than usual regarding exact placement and timing of waves of convective development this afternoon into Thursday. But high confidence remains in the overall pattern and associated thunderstorm threats. Today and tonight... Latest satellite imagery shows a large MCS over Michigan and far Northern Indiana currently, progressing east along the warm front, while an additional complex of storms develops over Iowa and Northern Illinois closer to the elongated surface low and cold front. An upper wave along the front range of the Rockies will work to shift this entire system and baroclinic zone eastward over the next 24 hours, placing the area of best forcing for ascent and the storm track closer to Indiana with several rounds of storms expected to impact the region. Mainly dry conditions should persist for Central Indiana for the rest of the morning and early afternoon hours as dry air and subsidence on the south side of these MCSs keep convection out of the area. However for later this afternoon and evening, keeping an eye on what happens with the remnant outflow boundary from the current MCS in Northern Indiana and how it interacts with a mid level shortwave in the Arklatex region moving northeast toward the Ohio Valley. This wave should provide the necessary forcing for convection development this afternoon in Illinois and Indiana along remnant boundaries in the warm sector. Unfortunately, it is difficult to determine where exactly these boundaries will set up at the moment. Current thinking is that areas along and north of I-70 have the best storm threat after 17z this afternoon. The environment will be more than conducive for severe weather as elongated hodographs within an unstable airmass suggest. Weak mid and upper lapse rates may limit the overall hail threat today, but high DCAPE values, and steep low level lapse rates with 30-40 kts of effective shear should be enough to support organized severe storms with a damaging wind threat with isolated tornadoes. Expect multiple rounds of convection going into tonight as the overall storm system begins to shift east. The threat for severe weather during the overnight hours should be more synoptically driven as surface wave moves northeast into the Great Lakes with a trailing front in Indiana. The increasing low level jet overhead ahead of the approaching system will work to increase overnight rounds of storms to the west/southwest which move into Central Indiana. The environment overnight will also be conducive for surface based severe weather within such a moist and unstable environment with increasing wind shear. The main threat going into tonight should still be damaging winds as largely unidirectional flow and speed shear support upscale growth of complexes into lines and bowing segments. Thursday through This Weekend... Ridging briefly builds in on Thursday as the overall system shifts eastward...however another broad southwesterly baroclinic zone quickly sets up over the Plains again with surface cyclogenesis occurring over the upper Midwest. This will place Indiana and much of the region back into a hot and humid pattern within the warm sector of the developing low. Expect a drying trend Thursday as ridging builds in. Little to no cold air on the backside of the front means another above average day with highs well into the 70s, but with slightly lower humidity values due to subsidence under the ridge and dry air mixing down. As a strong warm sector becomes established on Friday over the Plains and Midwest, Indiana will have one full day of dry and very warm weather before the next threat for storms arrives on Saturday. Models show that the surface low with this system will be unphased and tracking ahead of its upper component. This will potentially make Saturday's system more diurnally driven rather than synoptically forced. At this time, strong deep layer flow will be parallel to the cold front which could be enough to form a line of storms with damaging winds being the main concern. Outside of storms, stronger gusts are likely Saturday and into Sunday since the elevated portion of the system will be lagging behind. General gusts Saturday could reach as high as 35-40 mph and around 25 mph on Sunday. There are still some differences on when the associated cold front would exit, but likely sometime late Saturday into the overnight hours, behind which cooler and below normal temperatures will return at least for the first couple of days of the new week. Lows Monday morning could be approaching near freezing to mid-30s. Surface high pressure behind the front looks to track over the Ohio Valley, allowing for dry weather for the start of the new week as well. && .AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 642 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Impacts: - Mainly SSW winds through the TAF period, gusting to 17-28KT - Non-zero chances of additional convection this evening - Multiple rounds of convection 17z Wed - 12z Thu Discussion: Mainly VFR conditions will prevail across central Indiana this evening as satellite imagery shows most of the convective activity in the region well to the west or north. The region remains well within the warm sector of an area of low pressure to the northwest. Waves of energy within the SW flow aloft interacting with leftover boundaries will likely be the focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon into tonight. Mainly VFR cigs and vis outside of storms for the majority of the period. After 17z, widely scatter storms should begin forming along leftover boundaries. Low confidence in exactly where these boundaries set up, however thinking the set up and evolution will be very similar to Tuesday where the greatest threat is along and north of I-70. Kept Prob30 groups for TSRA after 17z at KLAF, KIND, and KHUF where the greatest threat is. Will be able to fine tune exact timing in later forecast issuances once boundaries set up. Brief periods of MVFR or worse conditions with erratic wind speeds and directions under any storm. With numerous waves of showers and storms expected to move through the area, keeping the threat for storms through the end of the TAF period. Outside of storms, breezy, south-southwest flow to prevail through the period, with slight changes in direction possible, especially near any showers. Took out any mention of LLWS overnight through the early morning hours as the boundary layer is remaining well mixed according to obs and local ACARS soundings. Wind gusts of 15-25 kts should prevail through the period. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ AVIATION...CM DISCUSSION...CM  009 FXUS62 KTAE 151046 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 646 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 644 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Patchy fog is possible this morning over the Florida Panhandle and Southeast Alabama, mainly for areas west of the Ochlockonee River. If encountering fog while driving, slow down, use low beam headlights, and increase braking distance. - Little or no rain is expected through this weekend. Drought conditions will worsen. Fire concerns will remain elevated. Use extreme caution with any outdoor burning. Please heed burn bans where they are in effect. - Above normal temperatures will continue through this weekend, with lower 90s likely late this week. && .SHORT AND LONG TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 251 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 An upper level ridge over the northeast Gulf dominates the upper level pattern into the weekend before it begins to break down in advance of several upper level troughs early next week. Ahead of these systems, very warm temperatures will prevail. Our warmest days of the period will be Friday and Saturday in advance of an approaching cold front on Sunday/Monday. High temperatures will likely approach 90 in many locations, especially those across the Florida Big Bend and southern Georgia. The main forecast concerns through the next 7 days will be the continuation of a very dry pattern and increasing fire concerns, especially this weekend and early next week. While the frontal system will bring slightly cooler temperatures and a brief chance for rain, it will not be enough to temper fire danger. Much of the rain chances will be confined to southeast Alabama but even in these locations, forecast rain chances and rainfall amounts are quite low (less than 20% and only a few hundredths of an inch of rain possible). Given that this next front is highly likely to be a dry cold front, and the potential for relative humidities in the teens with 10 to 15 mph winds, we could see the potential for critical (also known as Red Flag) fire weather conditions during that time period. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 644 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Dense fog is ongoing and bringing prevailing LIFR/VLIFR conditions to ECP. All other terminals remain in VFR and will remain that way through much of the day and evening. For ECP, fog is expected to lift by mid-morning with VFR conditions prevailing afterwards. South winds will develop through the day at all terminals. && .MARINE... Issued at 251 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Surface high pressure will firmly be in place over the next few days. Light to gentle winds out of the south/southeast are expected over the waters this week, with wave heights at around 1 to 2 feet. Seabreezes will likely develop and push inland each afternoon. The next period of elevated marine concerns won't be until late Sunday and Monday as a cold front sweeps through area waters and brings northeasterly winds; potentially to cautionary/advisory levels. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 251 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Hot and dry conditions will characterize the rest of the week as strong upper level ridging persists over the region. Transport winds will be light (5-10mph) and out of the south/southwest through the forecast period. Dispersions will be higher today, primarily for the western half of the region across southeast Alabama and the Panhandle. Higher dispersions on Thursday are limited to our northernmost counties with moderate dispersions elsewhere. Afternoon minimum RHs will likely dip into the high-20%/low-30% each day this week. Considering this alongside the antecedent drought conditions and hot high temperatures expected, fire weather concerns can be expected each day despite the weak transport winds. While uncertainty remains high at these longer lead times, some greater fire weather concerns could develop over the weekend or early next week with the passage of a dry cold front. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 251 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 No rain is expected for the next several days. Drought conditions will continue or worsen. For more local drought information & statements, visit the following websites: weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 89 60 89 58 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 82 63 82 63 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 87 59 87 60 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 89 61 88 60 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 91 60 91 58 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 89 57 88 57 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 77 64 78 63 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ this morning for FLZ007>014-108-112-114. GA...None. AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for ALZ065>069. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Dobbs LONG TERM....Dobbs AVIATION...Dobbs MARINE...Dobbs FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs HYDROLOGY...Dobbs  685 FXUS64 KLIX 151047 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 547 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 500 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Sun and temperature related health risks will be the primary concern with sunny skies and warm temperatures on tap through much of the week. Make sure to use sunscreen and drink plenty of water if you intend to be outside enjoying activities like sports and festivals. - Moderate to dense fog development is possible this morning particularly over inland locations. Light to moderate fog could also occur near water bodies and inland locations for the remainder of the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Saturday) Issued at 1204 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Strong stacked high will remain over the area in the short term. This will keep precip chances quite low through Saturday. That is not to say there is no chance of rain, as there will be a few stray sh/ts that could develop through that time period. But, it won't be more than isolated. There is a cold front that will be makings its way toward the area and we should see this rapidly moving SE by Fri evening. Saturday afternoon, we should see this front knocking on our door. There should be a good bit of sh/ts activity along this front as well before it gets to us. The Bermuda Highs ridge into the deep south will not want to give much room for the new high moving in behind this front causing the high behind the front to bridge the front eventually. This will cause the sh/ts along this front to decay and eventually dissipate. When this occurs will be a big deal as it will tell us if we get some rainfall or not over the weekend. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 1204 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 The upper ridge that has been controlling the weather across the local area recently will be suppressed southward over the Gulf briefly as a strong shortwave trough moves through the middle and upper Mississippi River Valley on Saturday and Sunday. This trough will push a cold front through south Mississippi and southeast Louisiana Saturday night into Sunday morning. The front should make it well into the Gulf by Sunday night and Monday before ridging builds back into the area from the west by the middle and end of next week. That will turn the winds back out of the south by Tuesday or Wednesday. While precipitable water values get up into the 1.5 to 1.6 inch range (90+ percentile) across northern portions of the area (north of Interstate 10/12) Saturday night and early Sunday morning, the best forcing will be well to the north of the area. That will probably result in scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms as the front moves through, but severe thunderstorm and heavy rainfall probabilities look to be low as of now. The most likely result is that southwest Mississippi may see one half inch of rain or so and areas south of that see much less. Much of the area could really use that rain, and if it doesn't materialize Saturday night, we could be looking at fire weather issues Sunday into Tuesday. Current guidance shows minimum relative humidity values around 35 percent Sunday afternoon and below 30 percent Monday afternoon. Saturday night's frontal passage will bring cooler and drier air to the area, at least for a few days. High temperatures that will probably be in the mid or upper 80s Saturday, may not make it much past 70 on Sunday, especially if we don't lose the clouds in the afternoon. Highs should rebound to the mid and upper 70s Monday and Tuesday, but that's where highs should be in late April. Overnight lows will be in the 50s Sunday morning. Monday morning lows will depend on cloud cover, as global models indicate lows in the 40s for most of the area, but NBM deterministic says around 50. Normal lows for late April should be in the middle and upper 50s. (RW) && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 500 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR for most terminals expected today with several sites seeing MVFR cigs for short durations. Tonight will be a better chance at getting MVFR to IFR cigs that will be in and out for most terminals over the eastern half of the area. && .MARINE... Issued at 1204 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Strong surface high pressure from the northeast gulf into the Atlantic continues to produce a light to moderate easterly to southeasterly fetch at 10 to 15 kt over the northern Gulf. Onshore flow will continue through at least Saturday with the potential for offshore flow from a cold front coming on Sunday into early next week where more hazardous marine conditions may develop leading to cautionary headlines or even Small Craft Advisories. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TE LONG TERM....TE AVIATION...RW MARINE...TE  609 FXUS61 KGYX 151048 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 648 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Added some dense fog thru the morning hours, with gradual improvement in visibility expected. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Today will be another warm day with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms expected. 2. Warm temperatures and chances for thunderstorms continue into Thursday. This looks like it could be another day where thunderstorms could be strong or even severe. 3. Wet weather continues off and on through the weekend, then colder and windy for Monday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A quasi-stationary frontal boundary remains draped over the area today with waves of low pressure continuing to track along it. This should keep clouds pretty locked into the area during the day and therefore it won't get quite as warm as we saw on Tuesday, but it will be warm nonetheless with temperatures climbing into the 60s across much of the area and into the 70s in southern New Hampshire. Expecting a seabreeze to keep temperatures at the coast cooler, probably in the 50s. Due to increased cloud cover convective potential is going to be much less. Latest CAMs suggest maybe a couple hundred joules of MUCAPE are able to develop which is just enough for some run of the mill thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening, but not enough to see anything very strong or severe. Again this looks most likely in southern New Hampshire and maybe southwestern Maine. We will see a sharp temperature drop across much of the area Wednesday night as cooler marine air advects onshore. Temperatures in Maine and coastal New Hampshire drop into the 40s, and the remainder of New Hampshire stays in the 50s with the Connecticut River Valley holding onto the warmest temperatures. This is also likely going to bring some fog to the coastal plain and maybe just inland as well. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... The pattern is rinse and repeat for Thursday as waves of low pressure continue to track along a quai-staionary boundary. There are a few differences though compared to Wednesday. The first being better forcing ahead of a sharp 500 mb trough is going to help remnant convection from the Great Lakes Region sustain into the Northeast, rolling over the ridge and ending up as widespread rain showers in our area (with one round possibly clipping southern New Hampshire in the early morning hours). The second difference is going to be that the ridging aloft may allow for enough clearing, mainly in southern New Hampshire, to once again develop some strong or even severe thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening hours. We are at the tail end of the CAMs window here, but they are already suggesting a wide swath of 1000 to 1500 J/kg of MUCAPE across southern New Hampshire with ample deep layer shear. Some things to consider will be be potentially lacking low and mid-level lapse rates and the possibility of abundant cloud debris keeping convection suppressed (something we saw occur more than once last year). KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... Scattered to numerous showers with some rumbles of thunder should continue through Thursday night and into Friday as low pressure continues to form along boundary to our south. During this time cool temperatures are expected, with the warmest highs (relatively speaking) occur across southern NH. Onshore flow continues on Saturday but it should be drier as we'll have a break in forcing for ascent. However, clouds and some drizzle may occur. A strong cold front approaches early Sunday and crosses during the day. Thereafter, relatively cold and windy NW flow takes over for Sunday night and Monday. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 12Z Thursday...Widespread LIFR CIGs with some dense fog this morning. Slow and steady improvement is anticipated thru mid morning, but whether we can break into VFR is low confidence. I suspect some areas will pop out, but some of western Maine may stay at MVFR most of the midday. Whether showers and storms over western NY can hold together is also quite low confidence, but some guidance suggests additional showers will develop in warm advection this afternoon and evening. Also onshore flow continues tonight and more widespread low stratus and LIFR CIGs is expected. Outlook... Thursday: MVFR in showers, with thunderstorms possible as well. Thursday night-Friday: MVFR due to showers. IFR possible as well, especially along the coast. Saturday: VFR expected although we will have to watch for coastal stratus. Sunday-Monday: MVFR due to showers and possible thunderstorms through Sunday night. VFR Monday with gusty NW SFC winds. && .MARINE... Mostly tranquil conditions are expected on the waters through the day Thursday. Winds will start today and Thursday light and variable with a sea breeze developing in the afternoon. Wave heights during this time period are expected to be 3ft of less. The only fly in the ointment will be the potential for afternoon thunderstorms. SCA conditions will be likely Sunday afternoon through Monday with strong cold frontal passage. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Baron/Ekster AVIATION...Legro MARINE...  250 FXUS62 KMLB 151050 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 650 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 131 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - A High risk of life-threatening rip currents continues at all Central Florida Atlantic beaches. Entering the surf is highly discouraged. - Warming trend under deep high pressure continues, with near record highs in the low 90s forecast across the interior Friday into the weekend. - Remaining mostly dry through the weekend, then a small chance of showers returns to the forecast early next week as a weakening front pushes through late Sunday into early Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 131 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Today-Tonight...Deep high pressure over Florida will keep us dry and warm. Onshore (easterly) flow continues as the ridge axis of surface high pressure extending from the Atlantic towards Florida stays just north of the area. A more relaxed pressure gradient will produce lighter winds today, increasing to 5-10 mph inland, and to around 10 mph with occasional gusts along the coast in the afternoon behind the sea breeze. Afternoon highs in the U70s-M80s, possibly reaching the U80s well inland. A few onshore moving sprinkles embedded in the marine strato cu can't be ruled out. The light overnight winds, mostly clear skies, and ridge aloft result in a little better chance for early morning fog than previous days, but generally most of the area remains too dry with dew point depressions 3 degrees or greater. The gap closes enough along and north of I-4 for a low (less than 20%) chance of patchy fog early this morning, and again early Thursday morning. Lingering long period swell will continue to produce dangerous rip currents at the beaches, and a high rip current risk continues for the Central Florida Atlantic coastline. Visitors and residents are advised to not enter this hazardous surf. Thursday-Sunday...The ridge aloft extending from the Gulf over Florida is flattened by a passing shortwave Friday, and remains suppressed through the weekend by a trough swinging across the eastern US. At the surface, the ridge axis of high pressure over the subtropical Atlantic settles south over Central Florida by Friday, then begins to retreat eastward over the weekend ahead of an approaching front associated with the trough. Dry conditions and gradual warming will continue, with near record afternoon highs in the U80-L90s forecast Friday across the interior through the weekend. Easterly to southeasterly flow around the ridge plus the afternoon sea breeze will keep highs in the coastal counties to the L-M80s. Could see some onshore moving showers from time to time, especially towards the weekend as moisture increases a bit in the more southeasterly flow. The additional moisture will also increase the chances of morning fog across a wider part of East Central Florida. Monday-Wednesday...A weakening front pushes through late Sunday into early Monday, bringing a small chance of showers, breezy to windy conditions in the afternoons, and a slight cool down. Moisture return and forcing ahead of/along the front are looking pretty meager by the time the boundary reaches Florida. ECM and GFS both depict a mostly quiet frontal passage, with the best chances for showers, such as they are, at 20-30% in afternoons across the central (Monday) and southern (Monday through Wednesday) counties where daytime heating destabilizes residual moisture from the frontal boundary. Breezy to windy conditions are likely to develop in the afternoons as the pressure gradient tightens between the front to the south and high pressure behind the front sliding across the Southeast towards the eastern seaboard. Temperatures drop back closer to normal with afternoon highs in the M70s-L80s and overnight lows in the U50s-U60s. && .MARINE... Issued at 131 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Today-Sunday...Generally favorable boating conditions through the weekend. Ridge axis of high pressure over the subtropical Atlantic north of the area today gradually drops south into Central Florida and the local Atlantic waters by Friday. The high then begins to retreat eastward over the weekend as front approaches, forecast to push through late Sunday into early Monday. Easterly winds 5-15 kts today gradually veer more southeasterly and weaken the next couple days as the ridge axis settles over the area. With light background flow Friday through the weekend, winds shift between SE-ESE in the afternoon/early overnight and SSW-WSW late overnight/early morning with the diurnal sea breeze circulation. Seas 3-5 ft early this morning settle to 2-4 ft Thursday through the weekend. A few light showers may develop from time to time, but otherwise dry conditions. Boating conditions deteriorate Sunday night as the front arrives. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 650 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Mainly VFR to continue. BKN040 have developed TIX south to SUA this morning and may linger thru at least 14z. Brief reductions to MVFR CIG cannot be ruled out. FEW/SCT 3-5kft CIGs are forecast thru the day with ESE winds generally 8-12 kt (gusts 15-20 kt at the coast MLB southward). Will monitor for BR/FG potential Thu. morning, but the signal is too low to include for now. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 131 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Dry conditions prevail and the warming trend continues through the weekend. Easterly flow gradually weakens and becomes more southeasterly as the ridge axis of high pressure north of the area today settles south into Central Florida by Friday. Winds generally increase to 5-10 mph inland and to around 10 mph along the coast, while backing easterly behind the sea breeze in the afternoons and evenings, then become light and possibly variable overnight. No min RH concerns along the coast. Inland min RHs 30-45%, lowest north of the I-4 corridor, but winds are forecast to remain below 15 mph and Red Flag conditions are not expected. High temperatures in the U70s-M80s today increase to the M80s-L90s going towards the weekend, near high temperature records inland. There is a low chance for patchy fog along and north of the I-4 corridor early this morning and again early Thursday morning, then chances increase to more parts of East Central Florida Friday morning. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 131 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Record Highs for Friday-Sunday (17th-19th): April 17th April 18th April 19th Daytona Beach 89 2022 92 1967 92 1968 Leesburg 92 1991 90 1990 92 2020 Sanford 92 1967 94 1967 94 2020 Orlando 95 1922 93 1922 94 1922 Melbourne 90 2006 91 2015 93 2015 Vero Beach 91 2021 92 2015 93 1969 Fort Pierce 93 1919 94 2015 92 1988 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 81 59 82 60 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 84 61 86 62 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 79 65 80 65 / 0 10 0 0 VRB 79 63 80 64 / 10 10 0 0 LEE 85 61 87 62 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 84 60 86 61 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 84 62 86 63 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 79 62 81 63 / 10 10 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Haley AVIATION...Schaper  806 FXUS61 KALY 151050 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 650 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The Marginal Severe Weather Risk (level 1 of 5) for today was expanded a bit to cover most areas south of I-90. The Marginal Severe Weather Risk (level 1 of 5) for tomorrow was upgraded to a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for areas near and north of I-90 on Thursday. Damaging winds remains the primary hazard from any severe storm. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Isolated to scattered areas of showers and thunderstorms today through tomorrow with a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms mainly south of I-90 today with a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for areas near and north of I-90 tomorrow. Damaging winds is the primary hazard from any severe storm both days. 2. The threat for widespread impactful weather is low Friday through early next week with temperatures trending below normal early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Our "ridge roller" pattern continues through today as a quasi- stationary boundary remains draped across eastern NY and western New England with fast zonal flow aloft. A decaying MCS from the Great Lakes will track eastward this morning resulting in a period of showers and potentially isolated storms late this morning into early P.M for areas mainly north of I-90. The quasi-stationary boundary lingers overhead this afternoon which should keep skies rather cloudy, especially from I-90 northward, and suppresses boundary layer mixing. While temperatures will still run above normal by mid-April standards, most will be lower compared to yesterday when many hit 80 for the first time in 2026. The exception is the mid-Hudson Valley and NW CT which should remain just south of the boundary allowing for breaks of P.M sun and temperatures to warm into the low to mid 80s. With plenty of low-level moisture still around, the sunshine should generate sufficient instability with guidance suggesting 1000-1500J/kg of SB CAPE. This combined with the fast flow aloft supporting deep layer shear values 40-50kts and steepening mid- level lapse rates 6-6.5C/km presents a favorable environment for organized convection focused in the northern/eastern Catskills, mid-Hudson Valley, NW CT and southern Berkshire County where SPC expanded its marginal risk (level 1 of 5) a bit compared to yesterday. However, overall forcing remains limited this afternoon as guidance shows just some very weak shortwaves tracking within the fast flow. CAMs match this thinking showing isolated to widely scattered shower/storm activity. We therefore capped POPs at chance for most areas. Should sufficient forcing allow isolated to widely scattered convection to develop in the marginal risk area, an isolated or two storm may become severe with damaging winds the primary hazard. We trend POPs upwards to likely and even categorical tonight when a more pronounced shortwave arrives. This should support more organized areas of showers and some embedded thunderstorms but given the overnight timing, the severe weather potential remains low. For Thursday, our quasi-stationary boundary lifts northward near or just north of I-90 as a pronounced shortwave trough digs into the Great Lakes with the low-level thermal gradient tightening. Areas south of the boundary look to break out in sun and with dew points remaining rather moist, the insolation will again contribute to 500 - 1000 J/kg of SB CAPE. Again, the fast flow aloft should support rather high deep layer shear values and with good agreement for stronger shortwaves or "ridge rollers" tracking within the fast zonal flow, there is increasing confidence that the stronger low and mid-level forcing will likely generate areas of showers/thunderstorms Thurs afternoon into the early evening. With deep layer shear vectors oriented parallel to the boundary, a linear storm mode should be favored with damaging winds the primary hazard from any strong to severe storm. SPC has upgraded the severe weather risk to a slight (level 2 of 5) for areas near and north of I-90 where the stronger forcing exists with a marginal risk for most of eastern NY into western New England. KEY MESSAGE 2... After our stretch of seasonably warm temperatures through Saturday, a potent cold front sweeps through the region on Sunday resulting in a widespread period of rain followed by much cooler temperatures early next week. With the latest NBM probabilistic guidance showing only a 20 to 40% chance for 24 hour rainfall amounts through 8PM Sunday to exceed 0.50" across the area, flooding impacts are unlikely. However, there is medium to high confidence that temperatures on Monday drop below normal with the latest NBM probabilistic guidance showing less than a 20% chance for temperatures across most of eastern NY and western New England to rise above 50 degrees. The potential for impactful weather remains low Friday through early next week. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Thru 12Z Thursday...A stationary front remains north of the Mohawk Valley and the Capital Region this morning. Some IFR/LIFR stratus continues at KGFL, but cigs should rise between 13Z-15Z/Wed. Sct-bkn cirrus remains from KALB-KPSF south to KPOU. A weakening batch of showers with a few rumbles of thunder will approach KALB-KPSF northward to KGFL between 14Z-17Z/Wed. We brought some showers in with PROB30 groups at KALB/KGFL with MVFR cigs and vsbys. KPSF/KPOU were kept VFR conditions with some mid and high clouds. Expecting VFR conditions most of the afternoon for KALB-KPSF south to KPOU with sct-bkn cumulus/stratocumulus 4-5 kft AGL with some lingering MVFR clouds at KGFL until 21Z/Wed. Another disturbance moves along the front towards 23Z/Wed to 05Z/Thu. Some showers/thunderstorms may impact KPOU/KPSF with MVFR conditions and we used a PROB30 there and further north to KALB/KGFL, as showers/stratiform light rain from 02Z-06Z/Thu. MVFR/low VFR conditions may linger after 06Z/THU with decreasing showers. Winds will vary in direction and be light at 3-6 KT this morning. They will become south to southwest 5-10 KT in the afternoon. Winds become light and variable at 4 KT or less tonight. Some stronger gusts are possible with thunderstorms south and east of KALB tonight. Outlook... Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Sunday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures(Year Set): Today April 15: Albany: 86(2003) Glens Falls: 84(2003) Poughkeepsie: 84(2003) Thursday April 16: Albany: 91(2012) Glens Falls: 89(2002) Poughkeepsie: 91(2012) && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...31 AVIATION...15 CLIMATE...07  671 FXUS63 KABR 151051 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 551 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warming trend continues. Temperatures today top out in the 70s (15 to 20 degrees above normal) and Thursday into the upper 70s to mid 80s (15 to 30 degrees above normal). - The combination of warm temperatures and southerly winds of 25 to 30 miles per hour result in High to Very High Grassland Fire Danger Thursday. A Fire Weather Watch is also in effect for late Thursday morning into the late afternoon. - A cold front will move through the area Thursday night, leading to below normal temperatures (highs in the 40s) and precipitation Friday and Saturday. Precipitation starts out as rain Friday afternoon before transitioning to snow as colder air moves in. Overall not a lot of moisture with this system. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1242 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Isolated elevated shower activity early this morning, with BUFKIT profiles and regional observations indicating ceilings up around 8-10kft or higher. NAM BUFKIT profiles also indicate a fairly dry layer of air below, so that will really limit what reaches the surface. Added sprinkles through the overnight. CAMS are also highlighting the northeast for another round of fog formation, and we've already seen Wheaton down to 1/4 mile. For Today, the weak wave responsible for the ongoing activity has shifted into western Minnesota, with a second wave over central Nebraska, both heading northeast with the influence now east of the CWA. We end up in broadly diffluent flow aloft as a stronger wave comes into the Pacific northwest. Good mixing conditions for the day with a light southwest component to the winds. HREF probability of exceeding 20 mph only tops out at 20-40% for a few hours in the morning when we first mix out, then drops to zero. NBM deterministic highs are about 1 to 4F below the 50th percentile, and with ample sun and mixing winds, bumped temperatures up. Afternoon humidity across much of the area will be from 20 to 30%, and the HREF probability of falling below 20% is actually from 40 to 60% across our west river counties. But again, winds are going to fall well below criteria for Red Flag. Across the east, mainly the far northeast, NAM BUFKIT profiles also indicate some weak/shallow convective instability. Profiles suggest convection limited to between 5 and 10kft which may be enough to generate moisture. CAMS only have a few blips. Have added a 20% chance up across the northeast. Wednesday night, flow aloft continues to be diffluent, resulting in a lee low forming over eastern WY/MT and the western Dakotas. This increased the gradient, though only about 10mb across the state. Increased flow is southerly, with 1/2km winds of 25 to 40kts. There will also be warm advection through the overnight hours, though no elevated instability is indicated in the NAM. As we continue into Thursday, flow aloft is southwesterly, with southwesterly low level flow, though the lee low weakens into more of an inverted trough stretching northeast to southwest across the state. Inverted V style profiles are depicted by the NAM, with a few j/kg CAPE above the 0C level, up around 12kft. No POPs with this profile, but along with the system derived winds being strong, this may add additional gustiness as a fire weather wrinkle. As for temperatures Thursday, again, NBM falls around the 10th percentile, with a 5 to 8 degree cool bias vs the NBM 50th percentile. This again is likely due to a significant thermal gradient across northwest South Dakota and south central North Dakota and the array of possible ensemble placements. Winds for most of the area during the day are also in a warm advection regime, meaning the NBM should provide the cap for highest wind gusts (outside of the aforementioned convection) so this will give us a good idea of whether we'll meet Red Flag. NBM gives us 50 to 70% probability to exceed 25 mph and a 30 to 50% probability for winds in excess of 30 mph. That means the potential for a fairly widespread Red Flag wind wise. For afternoon humidity, the deterministic NBM is around 20 to 25% with the far northwest and northeast up over 30%. Cold front moves through during the overnight hours, with a wind shift and increase. Strongest pressure rises are out in western South Dakota, but the gradient from southeast to northwest is about 16 to 20 mb. NAM/GFS BUFKIT profiles indicate status follows, with mixed winds in the 25 to 35kt range. Concern is that any ongoing fires will experience a sudden shift in trajectory. The gradient persists through Friday, at about 20mb across the state, keeping winds up. We still go from a standard deviation above climo for 850mb temperatures Thursday to a standard deviation below climo by Saturday, with a 30-40 degree temperature difference between highs Thursday in comparison to Friday/Saturday. Trends for moisture: NBM POPs have dropped, and shifted the total moisture west. Still only averaging a tenth of an inch or less. GEFS is likewise a tenth or two, with a few blip up around a half inch. NBM probability of a 1/4 inch are also down, up north of Mobridge its only about 30-40% with lower elsewhere. Profiles still suggest a transition to snow as well, but with ground/air temps wouldn't expect it to last. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 551 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG Outside of morning LIFR to IFR fog at ATY, VFR conditions and winds around 12kts or less will continue over the next 24 hours. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for SDZ007-008- 011-020>023. Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for SDZ005>008-010-011-016>023-033>037-045-048- 051. MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MNZ039-046. && $$ DISCUSSION...07 AVIATION...06  369 FXUS63 KDTX 151051 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 651 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... -Persistent Flood Risk: A Flood Watch remains in effect through Thursday night as multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms cross a stalled frontal boundary. Previous rainfall has saturated soils, making the region highly susceptible to additional runoff. -Severe Potential: A Marginal to Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms exists this afternoon and evening, with another isolated threat focused toward the Michigan/Ohio border on Thursday. The primary hazard remains damaging wind gusts within any organized convection. -Dry Friday followed by a Cold Weekend: Conditions dry out briefly on Friday before a strong cold front brings rain and possible thunderstorms on Saturday. The weekend concludes on a windy and much colder note Sunday, with temperatures plunging into the 40s. && .AVIATION... Active weather continues today with multiple chances of showers and thunderstorms yet again. First chance comes at the start of the forecast as band of showers stretches across southern MI from about PTK southward. Convection coming off Lake MI at press time will track east through the early morning bringing a chance of thunderstorms from about 13-16Z. FNT and MBS may just get showers out of it. Early afternoon another cluster looks to track through the Detroit area. Tonight has the best chance of another more widespread convection from about 03-07Z. Clouds will largely be VFR in between the clusters until tonight when MVFR/IFR clouds try to fill in. Winds will be predominately southwest around 10 knots through the period. DTW/D21 Convection...Multiple round of convection may impact the airport today and tonight. First chance is at the start of the forecast. Then again around 19-21Z and the possibly strongest storms will pass through around 03-07Z. Each cluster may impact positioning of future clusters so amendments are likely today. .DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Medium for ceilings aob 5000 ft this morning outside of convection. High tonight. * Medium for thunderstorms today and tonight. Low for timing the multiple clusters. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 413 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 DISCUSSION... A stalled-out frontal boundary remains draped across southern Lower Michigan early this morning. Water vapor imagery reveals at least two distinct upper-level waves currently over the Plains that are progged to work through the Great Lakes region through Thursday night. The 00z RRFS and 00z 3KM NAM both provided a reasonable depiction of the convective line that rolled through Southeast Michigan earlier this morning. However, notable differences remain regarding the timing and extent of redevelopment today. Leaning toward the RRFS solution, expect a brief lull by mid-morning as the initial wave exits. This reprieve will be short-lived, as high-resolution guidance suggests rapid airmass recovery by early afternoon. With SBCAPE progged to rebound into the 1000 - 1500 J/kg range amidst 40- knot bulk shear, additional discrete cells or multicell clusters are favored to develop along residual outflow boundaries. The Day 1 SPC outlook maintains a Slight Risk for southern areas, with damaging wind being the primary hazard. The RRFS remains aggressive for Thursday as well, highlighting a secondary mid-level trough lifting into the Great Lakes. This feature will provide stronger synoptic forcing for widespread, efficient precipitation. Relief finally arrives on Friday as a transitory period of mid-level ridging and surface high pressure provides a much-needed reprieve from the active weather. Attention then turns to a potent longwave trough ejecting out of the Pacific Northwest and arriving over the weekend. A deepening surface low is progged to track through the Upper Mississippi Valley on Friday, dragging a cold front through Southeast Michigan on Saturday (most likely during the early afternoon per the 00z Euro). Any delay in frontal timing could allow for stronger southwest winds ahead of the boundary, with gusts potentially reaching 40 mph given the 40 - 50 knot jet at 850 mb. While widespread showers may help limit instability - keeping MUCAPE values under 1000 J/kg - the strong wind fields will maintain a marginal severe threat. Post-frontal cold air advection (CAA) looks robust for the tail end of the weekend, with 850 mb temperatures bottoming out around -10°C by Sunday morning. Breezy to windy conditions will make for a "raw" day, as highs struggle to exit the 40s under a persistent deck of stratocumulus. Steep low level lapse rates will also support isolated to possibly scattered rain or snow showers through Sunday afternoon. MARINE... Overnight showers and thunderstorms depart this morning while an unsettled pattern remains in place today and Thursday. Additional rounds of showers and storms are possible throughout the day, with similar strong to severe concerns as the past few days. Localized winds in excess of 35 knots, erratic waves, and large hail will all be possible. Familiar wind pattern today and Thursday as the warm front holds near Saginaw Bay, causing winds to back toward the east north of the front. Some relief to the wet pattern is expected Friday before another low ripples through Saturday, drawing a strong cold front across the region. This will elevate winds on a more widespread basis compared to the more localized wind potential in thunderstorm activity through the work week. HYDROLOGY... Rainfall totals up to 2 inches were observed earlier this morning across portions of the M-59 corridor and the Saginaw Valley. Given this antecedent rainfall and already saturated soils from a wet spring, the Flood Watch remains in effect for all of Southeast Michigan through Thursday night. Significant rises are expected on regional waterways, with the Tittabawassee and Saginaw Rivers forecast to reach flood stage; the Shiawassee River also remains a point of concern for potential flooding. Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue intermittently through Thursday evening. While broad-scale forecasted rainfall totals today through Thursday are generally around 1 inch, which typically would not trigger widespread flooding. Any focused areas of convection could significantly over- perform. The primary concern is for thunderstorms to "train" over the same localized areas, leading to much higher rainfall totals and a heightened risk for flash flooding. Confidence in the exact timing and placement of these heavier corridors remains low, but the overall environment remains highly conducive to efficient rainfall rates. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Flood Watch through late Thursday night for MIZ047>049-053>055- 060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ AVIATION.....DRK DISCUSSION...SF MARINE.......MV HYDROLOGY....SF You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.  115 FXUS61 KBUF 151051 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 651 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Severe thunderstorm threat has slightly increased across the Southern Tier this afternoon. Severe thunderstorms risk has also increased Thursday from the Finger Lakes to the southern Tug Hill region, with a Slight Risk (level 2/5) now in place. A Marginal Risk remains for the rest of the forecast area. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Warm with rounds of showers and thunderstorms through much of the week. 2) Severe thunderstorms remain possible through Thursday, with locally heavy rainfall also possible through tonight. 3) The very warm pattern continues through Saturday before much colder air arrives by early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Warm with rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the end of the work week. An unsettled and active pattern will continue through the end of the workweek with a WSW-ENE oriented frontal zone draped across the Great Lakes and Northeast. Numerous convectively augmented shortwaves will move through the zonal flow pattern aloft along the frontal zone and support numerous waves of showers and thunderstorms. A weakening MCS will reach Western NY before daybreak today, then move rapidly east across the rest of the area this morning and continue to weaken with time and eastern extent as it races out ahead of the reservoir of stronger instability over the upper Ohio Valley. Expect a period of mainly dry weather for a few hours in the wake of the departing MCS. Another round of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop later this afternoon and evening with diurnal instability and the arrival of another convectively augmented shortwave. The best coverage of showers and thunderstorms will likely be late this afternoon through this evening south of the NYS Thruway where greater instability will develop, and forcing is forecast to maximize ahead of the next shortwave. Convection will diminish in coverage overnight as the shortwave moves east and the boundary layer stabilizes. There will still likely be a few scattered showers lingering with deep moisture still in place and the frontal zone lingering nearby. Late tonight through Thursday expect a rinse and repeat pattern, with another potential decaying area of convection arriving early in the morning, followed by additional rounds of showers and a few scattered thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening. Friday, a stronger mid level shortwave will cross the eastern Great Lakes in the morning, with a somewhat cooler airmass moving into the region. The cooler air will reduce the chances of thunder. Showers will continue through the first half of the day before tapering off from west to east in the afternoon and evening as a skinny ridge of high pressure builds into the eastern Great Lakes. KEY MESSAGE 2...Severe thunderstorms remain possible in some areas through Thursday, with locally heavy rainfall also possible through tonight. Active weather will persist through much of the week as described in key message (1). The eastern Great Lakes will remain in a "ridge roller" type pattern with multiple convectively enhanced shortwaves spilling across a quasi-stationary E-W oriented thermal boundary over the Great Lakes today through Thursday. This setup will be supportive for a few strong to severe thunderstorms, though the main threat area will differ each period through Thursday. The boundary will finally get shunted more firmly southeast of the region as a cold front Thursday night. The decaying MCS currently moving through WNY early this morning continues to weaken as expected, posing minimal severe weather threat as it races eastward. Behind this round of showers and storms, there should be a break in the activity until the next convective shortwave arrives later this afternoon. The environment south of the stalled overhead boundary will recover to allow MLCAPE values to increase to around 1000-2000J/kg across the Southern Tier in particular. Wind profiles aloft will also strengthen through overall shear magnitudes will remain similar to those this morning. Severe risk will likely be mostly contingent on the exact track of this next shortwave. Latest hi-res guidance indicates a fairly well- defined QLCS moving into northern Pennsylvania which may partially clip over the NY/PA border, though there are subtle differences in this northern extent. Should this system develop as advertised and take a more northern track, could see a swath of strong wind gusts, marginally severe hail and/or even an isolated tornado in the Southern Tier later this afternoon and early evening. For Thursday, the severe threat will likely be driven by a much broader upstream shortwave that will briefly drive a strong 45kt southwesterly LLJ into the forecast area from the Ohio Valley. The arrival of this jet will likely coincide with peak diurnal heating hours in the afternoon. Instability will likely be greatest (nearing 1000J/kg) in our area across the Finger Lakes and towards the Tug Hill region, which is where the higher risk of severe weather may become focused Thursday. Shear profiles suggest strong multicellular convection growing into line segments may be possible with damaging winds being the primary hazard. In addition to the severe weather threat, given the moist antecendant conditions and PWAT values between 1.25-1.5" through Thursday, there is a low-end threat for excessive rainfall. This would mainly be a concern if the same spatial areas see repeated rounds of convection in quick succession, especially those with complex terrain such as the Southern Tier. Given the relatively quick storm motions expected and fairly large breaks between most rounds of convection, this is not the primary concern but one worth monitoring over the next couple of days. KEY MESSAGE 3...The very warm pattern continues through Saturday before much colder air arrives by early next week. A thermal ridge will build into the eastern Great Lakes and Northeast Saturday just ahead of a deepening trough over the upper Midwest. Temperatures will soar into at least the mid to upper 70s, with 80s a possibility if clouds and showers hold off until late in the day. A strong cold front will then cross the eastern Great Lakes Saturday night, with another round of showers and scattered thunderstorms along and ahead of the front. There may be some severe potential if convection arrives by late afternoon and evening Saturday when stronger diurnal instability is still available. Strong cold advection will develop behind the cold front by Saturday morning. A deep trough will become established across the eastern Great Lakes and Northeast Sunday night through Monday, delivering an unseasonably cold airmass. 850MB temps will bottom out in the -10C to -14C range, more than cold enough to support lake effect and upslope snow showers in a northwest flow regime Sunday night through Monday morning. Moisture appears limited and the favorable synoptic scale setup is brief, so any accumulations will be minor. Highs Monday will only be in the lower 40s at best, and may stay in the 30s if clouds persist most of the day. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Variable flight conditions expected for the 12z TAF cycle as a couple of convective shortwaves and a stalled frontal boundary over the region cause periods of showers and thunderstorms. Conditions are expected to prevail in VFR/MVFR range in most areas through 00z this evening, with IFR cigs at times in the North Country. As of 10z, the first round of convection is ongoing across Western NY in the form of a broken line of showers and thunderstorms racing eastward. Brief IFR vsbys and localized wind gusts 30-40kts were previously observed within this complex, though the weakening trend is expected to continue with IFR and gusty winds decreasingly likely as it moves east of KROC. Following a break in the precipitation, the bulk of the morning hours will be dry until additional convection moves in from the west this afternoon. Thunderstorms are likely in the Southern Tier from KJHW to KELZ between 19z and 02z, with decreasing chances north of KBUF/KROC. Storms in the Southern Tier corridor could produce strong wind gusts. Showers and storms will likely remain in the vicinity of the Southern Tier tonight, though cigs are expected to deteriorate areawide to mainly IFR. Otherwise, between rounds of showers and storms, a continuous flow of warm, moist air across the cold lakes may result in a localized marine layer northeast of the lakes with MVFR/IFR or lower cigs and occasionally vsbys in patchy fog. Confidence remains low in this potential with abundant cirrus obscuring lower-level cloud features and hi-res guidance poorly handling the phenomena. Outlook... Thursday and Thursday night...VFR/MVFR with some local IFR at times. Numerous rounds of showers and scattered thunderstorms. Friday...VFR/MVFR with showers possible. Saturday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers later in the afternoon. Sunday...A mixture of MVFR/IFR with rain showers mixing with and changing to snow through the day. && .MARINE... Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected to cross the lakes through Thursday, a few of which may produce strong surface wind gusts and locally higher waves. Otherwise, with the warmer airmass in place and relatively cold lake temperatures, limited mixing of synoptic winds should preclude any prolonged SCA- conditions across the waters. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hitchcock/PP AVIATION...PP MARINE...PP  134 FXUS64 KLUB 151051 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 551 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 551 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Mainly dry weather is expected through the rest of this week and into the upcoming weekend. - Elevated to near critical fire danger will develop each afternoon through Friday, especially on the Caprock. - Much cooler temperatures arrive this weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Wednesday night) Issued at 1031 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A positively tilted upper level trough axis just east of the Four Corners as of late Tuesday evening will continue to shift eastward over the next 24 hours, with flow aloft over West TX consequently weakening and becoming more zonal. At the surface, a dryline will reside near the edge of the Caprock through Wednesday morning, with lingering isolated shower and thunderstorm activity set to end before midday. The dryline will quickly exit to our east by early Wednesday afternoon as deep downslope westerly low level flow establishes across the region in response to expansive surface troughing developing over the TX Panhandle. Storm chances Wednesday afternoon and evening are therefore expected to remain to our east, with a warm and dry day expected Wednesday across the forecast area. RH values will fall to or below 10 percent, which combined with west winds around 15 to 20 mph will result in elevated fire danger across much of the region. Quiet and seasonably cool conditions are expected Wednesday night with lows mainly in the 40s to low 50s by Thursday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1031 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Flow aloft will back to a more southwesterly direction Thursday into Friday as deep mid/upper level troughing advances over the intermountain west. However, surface moisture will be slow to return to our area with dry downslope winds set to continue through the day on Thursday, leading to another afternoon of warm temperatures and increased fire weather concerns. Low level moisture will finally increase Thursday night into early Friday, but is expected to be rather shallow. A subset of guidance hints at some light precipitation on Thursday night, but a general lack of deeper moisture and forcing for ascent casts doubt on the potential for anything more than a deck of low clouds and some light rain showers or weak storms heading into Friday morning. This moisture will be quick to exit by later in the day Friday, with dry west winds strengthening and bringing another period of increased fire danger to most of the area on Friday afternoon. Otherwise, a strong cold front is still on track to pass through the region early Saturday which will bring much cooler temperatures for the weekend. The weekend also looks to remain dry across our area, but low chances for showers and storms will return by early next week as moist low level return flow reestablishes across the region. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 551 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR next 24 hours. West-southwesterly winds will temporarily transition towards the northwest as the dryline begins to move east after sunrise. Winds will then become westerly by the early afternoon and become slightly breezy before diminishing at dusk. Sincavage && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1031 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 West winds will gradually increase after sunrise Wednesday, with 20 foot wind speeds expected to peak around 15 mph on Wednesday afternoon. A much drier airmass is also expected Wednesday, which combined with warm temperatures will result in RH values in the single digits. RFTI values up to 4 will be almost entirely RH-driven given the relatively light 20 foot wind speeds, so this should keep fire danger capped at elevated. A Fire Danger Statement is in effect for most of the Caprock and southern TX Panhandle from 12 PM to 8 PM Wednesday. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...09  879 FXUS63 KARX 151051 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 551 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of strong to severe storms possible today and tonight, primarily affecting northeast Iowa into southwest Wisconsin with potentially damaging wind and large hail. Isolated tornado threat cannot be ruled out. - Break in storms and rainfall expected Thursday with a line of severe storms possible Friday afternoon and night. While it remains too far out to nail down details, all hazards look possible with enhanced forcing and tapping into the unstable airmass. && .UPDATE... Issued at 420 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A lower confidence dense fog advisory has been issued for parts of central Wisconsin as fog has been slowly spreading southward from northern Wisconsin throughout the night across already saturated ground. Ongoing elevated convection and an expansive anvil shield have resulted in visibilities bouncing around quite a bit at the automated sites, but there looks to be enough of a break in the storms to have at least areas of dense fog through the early morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1217 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Ongoing Early Morning Storms: Tuesday's low level trough abandoned 1" PWATs (GOES derived) across the southeastern 3/4 of the forecast area, permitting the overnight storm threat to lie just south of the forecast area, due to enhanced forcing. Overnight storm initiation observed on DMX/OAX radar is evident of the lingering boundary as DMX VWP light north winds opposes TOP/ICT/EAX 925mb winds of 35+ kts. Fortunately, as the storms progress north towards the forecast area, a drier, colder airmass will limit overall strength. Unfortunately, areas that received heavy rainfall Tuesday night will likely see ongoing storm potential through the early morning hours potentially causing flooding in spots where strongest storms were realized and caused heaviest rainfall. Strong to Severe Storm Threat Today & Tonight: Strong to severe storm threat increases across the southern half of the forecast area this afternoon and evening as a potentially deepening low pushes northeast through the Central Plains towards the Mississippi River Valley. Similar to both Monday and Tuesday, meridional advection of the warmer, moister airmass through the late morning hours increases meager initial storm chances before the unstable airmass takes shape through the afternoon. A feedback loop between the deepening cyclone and the frontal boundary raises questions of duration and northern extent of storms. Therefore, overall confidence remains low due to differing solutions in strength of meso cyclogenesis lifting through northeast Iowa into southwest Wisconsin through the afternoon. Ongoing late morning observations of surface winds and progression of synoptic forcing will iron out further details however. The most locally widespread and potentially strong solution (HRRR/RAP) keeps an open, albeit tightening wave as it nears the forecast area, sufficiently strengthening to abate the drier air attempting to push from northwest to southeast. This solution perpetuates local storm chances across the southern half of the forecast area through the afternoon, evening, tonight, and early Thursday morning. Fortunately, associated temperature sounding profiles show mostly elevated storms, limiting tornado risk with very long, straight, hodographs raising wind threat concerns with secondary hazard of large hail. Although, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out given stretching of vorticity along the near surface frontal boundary. Furthermore, this solution suggests an initially congealed storm mode through the day becoming linear as the dry punch pushes through tonight as the meso low provides additional forcing for storms through Thursday morning. This is an outlier solution at the current juncture and given the proclivity for the HRRR to jog north/south in its solutions depending on initialization time, bears awareness rather than raw belief. Higher confidence situation in storms grazing our southern periphery this afternoon and eventually exiting east through the evening hours as the drier air quickly pushes threats south and east of the forecast area. Regardless, all will depend on previous storms which in turn depend on ongoing storms early this morning seen strewn across central Iowa. Storm Chances Return Friday Afternoon & Night: A break in storm chances on Thursday is expected as shortwave ridging allows today's drier air to the northwest to advect southeast through the local forecast area. Subsequent longwave troughing, seen in GOES WV imagery over the Pacific Northwest is expected to phase through the Central Plains Thursday, enhancing low level moisture transport into the Northern Plains Friday. Therefore, ample forcing and instability progresses east causing linear storm mode across the forecast area Friday. Unfortunately, machine learning severe weather forecast models have drastically increased local probabilities nearing 50% for the southern half of the forecast area. Current confidence is limited due to influence of diurnal heating to potential timing of frontal passage locally. Will require close monitoring in coming forecasts. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 550 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A band of IFR to LIFR ceilings and visibilities east of an OLZ to RCX line gradually clear out this morning with MVFR cumulus deck developing roughly along and southeast of a CCY to MDZ line later this morning through the afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected at times in this same corridor during the afternoon, some of which could produce large hail. Fog may develop later tonight areawide, but the coverage and intensity of the fog remains in question. Winds will be light from the north to northeast at 5-10 kts for the TAF period. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1217 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Fortunately, heaviest rainfall Tuesday remained south of Monday's heaviest rainfall, easing overall flooding concerns. Therefore, no changes in river flood headlines compared to previous forecasts. Tuesday's rainfall unfortunately slightly affected upstream of more locally flashier rivers in northeast Iowa (Turkey River) southeast Minnesota, and southwest Wisconsin (Kickapoo River). While initial responses on these rivers haven't been overly concerning overnight, subsequent storm chances this morning through tonight raise concern should they frequent these same areas. Similarly, ongoing river flooding in central and west-central Wisconsin is at risk should storms be realized farther north. Short reprieve in local precipitation chances Thursday ceases for Friday as the anomalously moist airmass returns for strong to severe storms pushing southeast. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for WIZ043-044- 055. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ UPDATE...Skow DISCUSSION...JAR AVIATION...Skow HYDROLOGY...JAR  080 FXUS64 KBMX 151053 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 553 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 552 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026 - Fire danger will remain elevated through the week due to recent dryness, low relative humidity values, and increased winds at times. Outdoor burning is highly discouraged. - Near-record high temperatures are expected each day this week with only minimal rain chances in the forecast. Drought conditions will worsen. && .DISCUSSION... (Wednesday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1030 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026 Water vapor imagery reveals another active evening across the country as a series of shortwaves rip across the Plains. Upper ridging in place across the southeast is helping to deflect this activity away from the region. The ridge will begin to retreat to the south as another shortwave peels across the Plains Wednesday into Thursday. This will open a brief window during the day Thursday for a low chance of rain across our NW areas. Confidence is low in this scenario as moisture recovery does not look too impressive. Once again, "drought begets drought". Upper ridging quickly builds back in as the shortwave pushes off the east coast. As we head into the weekend, a stout upper low lifts across the Plains towards the Great Lakes region. An associated cold front will be sent our way, moving into our NW areas Saturday night and clearing our SE counties Sunday afternoon. Our rain chances look a bit more favorable with this system as our latest suite of guidance hints at a healthier plume of moisture pooling across the region. We will continue with a mention of low to moderate (20-60%) rain chances late Saturday through Sunday morning. Much drier air quickly filters back into the region as we close out the weekend and head into the work week. This will likely lead to some increased fire weather concerns early next week. Our warming trend will continue over the next several days. Highs each afternoon will generally climb into the mid 80s. Friday looks to be the warmest day as several locations have a 30-70% chance of exceeding 90F. It's likely that we see some high temp records broken as we close out the work week. To add confidence here, the ECMWF EFI/SOT guidance continues to hint at an anomalous heat event for this time of the year. These warm temps and dry conditions will likely lead to worsening drought conditions over the next week. 95/Castillo && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 552 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026 VFR conditions prevail through the majority of this TAF cycle. Light winds increasing to around 10 knots through the morning hours. Wind drop back off after 00z. 16 && .FIRE WEATHER... Elevated fire danger conditions will be a concern daily as we head through the week. MinRHs will drop into the 25-35% range once again this afternoon. Moisture slightly increases Thursday and Friday with minRH vales from 30-40%. However, ongoing drought conditions will contribute to an elevated fire weather threat. Winds will be a bit breezy with gusts from 10-15 MPH. Outside of a low chance of rain across our northwest areas, dry conditions will remain in place through the work week. A cold front is forecast to move through Saturday night, which will bring a low to medium chance for showers and storms. Significantly drier air moves into the region in the wake of the front. We will need to keep a close eye on our fire weather threat as RH values are forecast to fall into the 20-30% range early next week. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1102 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026 Record High Temperatures: April 15: KBHM: 88/1936 KEET: 85/2012 KANB: 89/1972 KTCL: 88/1972 KMGM: 91/1972 April 16: KBHM: 89/1977 KEET: 84/2013 KTCL: 90/1955 KMGM: 90/1925 April 17: KBHM: 90/1955 KEET: 86/2013 KTCL: 92/1955 KMGM: 90/1955 April 18: KBHM: 91/2006 KEET: 90/2006 KANB: 90/1955 KMGM: 91/2006 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 85 56 85 57 / 0 0 10 10 Anniston 85 58 85 60 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 86 61 85 62 / 0 0 10 0 Tuscaloosa 85 60 85 61 / 0 0 10 0 Calera 86 58 86 61 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 86 60 85 62 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 87 58 87 61 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 86 57 86 60 / 0 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...95/Castillo AVIATION...16  116 FXUS65 KFGZ 151053 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 353 AM MST Wed Apr 15 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Look for pleasant weather today. Another round of windy conditions is expected Thursday, followed by cooler temperatures Friday as a weather system passes to our north. The weekend looks dry with warmer daytime temperatures and well below normal morning lows. && .DISCUSSION...Dry air will spread across northern Arizona today behind the most recent trough. Pressure gradients will be much weaker supporting southwest to west winds of 5-15 mph. The air mass will be milder with temperatures ranging near seasonal averages. For Thursday through Friday...A fast moving shortwave trough will brush northern Arizona. The main impact will be a return to stronger winds. Recent model forecasts have shifted the shortwave a bit further north so winds likely won't be quite as strong as previously indicated, but still quite uncomfortable. On Thursday, ahead of the trough axis, winds will become southwest at 15-25 mph gusting to 30-40 mph. Winds will remain gusty Thursday night but gradually weaken and shift to a west to northwest direction by early Friday as the trough axis moves eastward. Friday will see west to northwest winds at 5-15 mph gusting to 25 mph across much of the area. However, east of a Winslow to Four Corners line winds at 15-25 mph gusting to 30-40 mph will persist. With the northward shift of the trough the the chances for even an isolated shower along the Arizona/Utah border are near zero. From Saturday into early next week...A drier northeast to east flow will develop Friday night through Saturday. In wind protected locations above 6,500 feet strong radiational cooling will present the potential for low temperatures in the upper teens to mid 20s Saturday morning. Otherwise, look for northeast to east winds at 5-15 mph across much of the area. However, along and south of the Mogollon Rim from late Friday through early Sunday, where winds tend to funnel in northeast flow, gusts to 25 mph are forecast. Northeast winds will likely be short-lived as another trough will approach Arizona during the day Sunday. As a result, look for gusty south to southwest winds to return on Sunday into early next week with warming temperatures both day and night. && .AVIATION...Wednesday 15/12Z through Thursday 16/12Z...VFR conditions. Expect light and variable winds through 18Z, then becoming SW-W at 5-15 kts through 02Z. After 02Z, light and variable winds return. OUTLOOK...Thursday 16/12Z through Saturday 18/12Z...VFR conditions. Winds SW at 15-25 kts gusting to 30-40 kts on Thursday, staying locally gusty Thursday night. Winds shift to W-NW at 10-20 kts gusting to 20-30 kts daytime Friday then shift further to NE at 10-20 kts Friday night. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Thursday...Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures. Look for west to southwest winds at 5-15 mph today, increasing to 15-25 mph gusting to 30-45 mph on Thursday. Minimum RH values 10-20% each day. Friday through Sunday...Dry through the period. Northwest to west winds at 10-20 mph gusting to 25-35 mph on Friday becoming northeast to east at 5-15 mph with local gusts to 25 mph on Saturday. Sunday will see south winds at 10-25 mph develop as a Pacific low approaches Arizona. Minimum RH of 10-20% is forecast for Friday turning a bit drier on Saturday at 5-15%, then jumping back to 10- 20% on Sunday in response to the approaching low. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...McCollum AVIATION...McCollum FIRE WEATHER...McCollum For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff  214 FXUS66 KSEW 151056 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 356 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front continues to shift eastward today, with steady snow coming to an end in the Cascades. However, expect widespread showers Wednesday across the area in the cool, unstable post- frontal air mass. A few isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon. Drier but cool conditions then develop later this week until the next frontal system approaches the region offshore this weekend. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A cold front passed through western Washington yesterday evening/this morning. This is being driven by an upper level low/trough that will dig southward today across the state. The radar remains active this morning with precipitation continuing in the lowlands and Cascades this morning. A convergence zone is keeping showers going between Seattle and Everett. Snow has been falling at all of the Cascade passes, and the surface temperatures up there have been just below freezing. The winter storm warning will continue through 11 PM this evening, with a couple additional rounds of snow expected through the day today. A couple of the snow-bands later may be able to produce heavier snow rates. For the remainder of the area today, the cold air aloft with the trough sinking over will create an unstable airmass for a chance of convection today. SPC has the coastal areas in a general risk of thunder today, although the thunder risk will encompass the entire coverage area today. The risk is capped at 30% (with the coastline and interior/Puget Sound areas having the best chance of seeing thunder). These showers/thunderstorms are expected to be scattered in nature, with any breaks of sun during the morning able to add to the 200-300 J/kg of CAPE in place. The window for thunder will be from late morning through early evening. The main concerns are lightning, and downpours containing heavy rain and graupel/small hail. No organized severe weather is expected. Highs today remain cool - upper 40s to low 50s in the lowlands, and 30s/40s in the mountains. Winds will remain light out of the west 5-10 mph. The trough moves out going into Thursday. North flow behind the trough will bring in cooler Canadian air into the region. Conditions will be dry going into Thursday/Friday. Main concern will be the potential for any fog/frost/freeze conditions next couple mornings to finish the week. Mitigating factors will be the potential for some cloud coverage overnight, boundary layer conditions and the wet grounds from recent rains may favor some patchy fog development in spots. Light to calm winds and any clearing that does take place will allow temperatures to fall into the low 30s and upper 20s Thursday and Friday morning. Probabilities for a hard freeze are greatest in the Chehalis Valley/South Interior areas, with remaining lowland areas more likely to see frost at this point. If frost/freeze conditions do form, it will be important to protect any plants/crops outside susceptible to the cold conditions. HPR && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Ensemble guidance continues to bring the next low pressure system south from the Gulf of Alaska offshore past the region this weekend. There remains a significant spread in the eastward extent of the associated front across the region, which would impact the potential for additional rainfall this weekend. While there remains some mention across most of the area, the chances remain highest across the Olympic Peninsula and coastline. Regardless, this looks to be a weaker system than the currently passing front and a more seasonable air mass with lowland temperatures returning to the 60s and snow levels returning back above the Cascade passes. 12 && .AVIATION... A cold front moved through the terminals this morning, with a post- front convergence zone producing additional showers in Puget Sound. The showers were rotating around an anti-cyclonic meso-low, with some outflow turning the winds northeasterly at KSEA and KBFI this morning. The convergence zone is expected to last through 16-18Z, with winds turning back to the southwest 4-8 kt. Ceilings this morning have ranged between MVFR/VFR, but will trend towards VFR through the day. A trough will dig southward today, with north flow increasing late tonight/Thursday aloft. Breaks in the clouds with sun today will help destabilize the atmosphere for convection during the day. There is a 20-30% chance of thunder in the terminals this afternoon (most likely window is from 20Z-00Z this afternoon denoted with PROB30). Cloud tops on any storms are likely to remain under 20,000 ft. Coverage will be scattered in nature. Main concerns are lightning, heavy downpours that may contain graupel/small hail, and gusty/variable outflow winds. Conditions will dry going into Thursday with an increased likelihood of MVFR ceilings Thursday morning. Winds become light out of the northwest tonight/Thursday less than 5 kt. KSEA...Vicinity showers with a convergence zone to continue through late this morning. Brief NE winds with this feature will switch to the SW 4-8 kt around 16-18Z (few gusts up to 20 kt before the switch). MVFR ceilings improving to VFR this morning, with MVFR likely Thursday morning. Showers to continue through the day and a 30% chance of thunder (most likely window is from 21Z-00Z). Drier conditions into Thursday morning. Lightning, graupel/downpours, and variable breezy winds are possible with storms in/near the terminal. Winds to become light under 5 kt later this evening (brief variable period possible from 22Z-02Z). HPR && .MARINE... Winds have peaked over the waters this morning in the wake of the passing cold front. Widespread showers can be expected through the day with a few stronger ones potentially bringing lightning and stronger wind gusts. Meanwhile, seas remain 7 to 12 ft over the coastal waters as they increase today. Even if short of 10 ft, conditions will be rather steep with a dominant period around 8 seconds over the coastal waters. Conditions begin to subside later in the week with weak high pressure building over the waters Thursday through Saturday. The next front will approach the waters over the weekend bringing another round of gusty winds and building seas over the waters into the weekend. 12 && .HYDROLOGY... No river flooding is expected during the next seven days. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for Cascades of Pierce and Lewis Counties-Cascades of Snohomish and Northern King Counties-Cascades of Southern King County- Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit Counties. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PDT this morning for Grays Harbor Bar. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm. && $$  937 FXUS61 KCTP 151057 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 657 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Additional details on today's thunderstorm threat && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Summerlike warmth visits the region this week with near-record daily maxes and daily mins on tap for today and tomorrow. Elevated risk of wildfire spread poss Thu. 2) Several periods of showers and thunderstorms expected during the next few days, with the greatest amount of rainfall likely occurring across northern and western PA. Some storms may be severe, particularly across the northwest late this afternoon and evening. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Summerlike warmth visits the region this week with near-record daily maxes and daily mins on tap for today and tomorrow. Elevated risk of wildfire spread poss Thu. A +2 sigma ridge over the Southeastern US will continue to drive warm air up into the Mid Atlantic and Northeastern US. Temps as of 09z in the 50s and low 60s are still sitting a degree or two above the minT records at IPT and MDT. Record warmth will remain possible through Friday morning. Humidity has accompanied the heat thus far, with dewpoints in the upper 50s and 60s expected again this afternoon. The flow on Thursday will become more SWrly, with more large scale downsloping off the Appalachians resulting in drier air at low levels. RH values in south central PA may dip into the low 20s pct Thu afternoon, which, combined with wind gusts over 20 mph, may result in an elevated risk of wildfire spread, particularly if that area remains rain free today/tonight. We will say goodbye to the warmth for a while come Sunday after a strong cold front knocks temps back to near the freezing mark for the start of next week. ---------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 2: Several periods of showers and thunderstorms expected during the next few days, with the greatest amount of rainfall likely occurring across northern and western PA. Some storms may be severe, particularly across the northwest late this afternoon and evening. A decaying MCS moving from Lake Erie into NW PA has produced wind gusts near 40 kts on the Erie lakeshore. As this system moves east, multiple lines of convection may initiate early this morning as waves in the top of the stable nocturnal boundary layer lift parcels high enough to tap into a few hundred J/kg of elevated instability. Sfc wind gusts will likely be less than 30 kts for most places given the stable sfc layer. This first round of convection will be winding down by 10-11 AM, with a lull in the action expected late morning into early afternoon. This afternoon and evening, new convection is expected to initiate along a west-east quasi stationary boundary and remnant outflow boundaries. Cool temps at mid levels above very warm and moist low levels will result in steep lapse rates with SBCAPE progged above 1000J/kg across much of central PA. With about 30-40 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear, discrete cells and clusters/linear segments will be possible. Storm motions near 40 kts and DCAPE of 500-700 J/kg should be sufficient to produce a respectable threat for damaging winds in the NW this evening. There is also some potential for training convection later this evening into tonight over NW PA as the mean flow becomes aligned with WSW-ENE initiating boundaries and moisture continues to advect in from the SW. Convection allowing models suggest there could be a few stripes of 1-3" of rain across NW PA in areas of repeated heavy rainfall. WPC continues a MRGL ERO for this threat. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A line of thunderstorms moving across northern PA will continue to weaken as it progresses eastward this morning, though it may not fully dissipate before reaching IPT. Additional showers have developed to the south of this line and may impact JST for the next few hours. There is around a 20 percent chance that these showers make it to AOO and UNV as well. Patchy dense fog will gradually dissipate, giving way to VFR conditions for all TAF sites later this morning under scattered mid and high clouds. West-southwesterly winds will be sustained at 10 to 15 knots with gusts to 25 knots. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected late this afternoon and into the evening. These storms will be capable of producing strong wind gusts, potentially in excess of 40 knots. Northern and western TAF sites are most likely to see showers and storms later today. Showers and thunderstorms likely linger across northern PA for most of the night. Outlook... Thu...VFR most of the time, but brief restrictions possible in hit and miss showers and thunderstorms, mainly across the north and west. Fri...Restrictions possible early, then improving to VFR in the afternoon. Sat-Sun...Restrictions in SHRA possible. && .CLIMATE... Record high daily maxes and mins are possible this week as summerlike warmth visits the region. Here's a look at the records as they stand right now, with a * indicating that the forecast is equal to or greater than the record. Record High Daily Max / Daily Min... For Harrisburg: April 15: 87* (1941) / 61* (2023) April 16: 89 (2002) / 63* (1941) April 17: 91 (2002) / 60* (2002) For Williamsport: April 15: 86 (1994) / 57* (2023) April 16: 90 (2002) / 55* (2023) April 17: 91 (2002) / 58* (1896) && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Colbert KEY MESSAGES...Banghoff/Colbert DISCUSSION...Banghoff/Colbert AVIATION...Bauco CLIMATE...Colbert  059 FXUS64 KMRX 151059 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 659 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 656 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Well above normal temperatures expected through this week into the first half of the weekend. Record highs are possible. - Chance of showers Thursday evening, but precipitation amounts will generally be light providing little relief from the worsening drought and fire weather conditions - A better chance of showers Saturday night/Sunday morning, followed by cooler temperatures early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 244 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Unseasonably hot and dry conditions continue to be the main weather story for the area, thanks to a persistent large ridge of high pressure over the Gulf and SE CONUS. For Wednesday, high temperatures will be close to record highs with a SW flow, subsidence under the ridge, and limited cloud cover. Low RH values will be of concern for fire weather interests, bottoming out in the 25-35% range Wednesday for most locations, but for the most part SW winds will not be higher than the 5-15 mph range. The mid/upper ridge will briefly be interrupted by a shortwave trough approaching from the west late Thursday that will move across our area Thursday night. The late arrival of increased cloud cover and precip chances Thursday will allow for another very warm day with high temperatures not far off the records. RH values will again bottom out in the 25 to 35% range during the afternoon and winds will be slightly stronger. As the short wave moves in it will bring a chance of showers late Thursday into Thursday night, but weak forcing and limited moisture will generally result in light rainfall amounts, and little overall impact on the ongoing drought conditions and wildfires (ensemble data has chances for 24 hour precipitation amounts exceeding a quarter inch ranging from around 10% to 30%, with the higher values across our northwest counties). Models show some limited instability that may support a few thunderstorms, with the highest chance for thunder being across our Plateau counties. The ridge will build back Friday behind the departing shortwave trough. High temperatures will be approaching records again on Friday and Saturday. Better rain chances may arrive for Saturday night into Sunday as models show a deep trough developing over the Plains that will drag a cold front through our area as the trough moves east. Models are in decent agreement on this scenario, although differ more in the details that will be important in determining how much precipitation we will see. Ensemble data currently shows around a 50% chance of seeing over a quarter inch of rain and closer to a 20% chance of seeing more than a half inch (24 hour period). What is more certain than the precip amounts is that we will see cooler temperatures moving in with high temperatures near or even a bit below normal both Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will begin to trend warmer again Tuesday. Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 04-15 87(2006) 87(1936) 85(1945) 86(2024) 04-16 89(2002) 87(1896) 87(2002) 88(2002) 04-17 91(1955) 90(1896) 85(2002) 88(1955) 04-18 90(2002) 90(1896) 87(2002) 89(2002) 04-19 91(2002) 90(1941) 90(1941) 90(2002) && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 656 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions continue among a diurnal wind pattern persistent with previous days. Breezy southwest winds in the afternoon. becoming light overnight. Amplified low-level flow may result in a period of LLWS tomorrow night as well. But confidence too low to include this far out. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 87 61 87 62 / 0 0 20 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 85 61 85 61 / 0 0 20 40 Oak Ridge, TN 86 59 85 60 / 0 0 30 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 83 57 83 59 / 0 0 10 40 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...99 AVIATION...KRS