949 FXUS62 KMFL 151100 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 700 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 659 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Reduced visibilities and air quality will be possible across portions of the Naples metro due to smoke from the Newman Fire. - Dangerous rip currents will continue at all east coast beaches of South Florida through at least Wednesday evening. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 1257 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Deep-layer ridging remains in tact at least through Thursday as it continues to hold over the Southeast U.S. while also further amplifying. 500mb heights will be in the 97-99th percentile for these dates, showing just how strong this ridge is. The drier air mass also holds steady, maintaining a dry and tranquil weather pattern across the region. Easterly winds around the high pressure will be a little weaker today and tomorrow as the pressure gradient begins to relax, but still will be relatively breezy with gusts to around 20-30 mph. Daytime high temperatures will continue to reach the low 80s for the east coast metro and upper 80s to near 90 for the Gulf coast region today as the easterly regime favors warmer temps for the Gulf region during the day and cooler at night. Highs then climb to near 90 for Gulf coast metro areas on Thursday with low to mid 80s highs for the east coast metro. We continue to monitor the Newman Wildfire in Collier County as well. Until its fully controlled, breezy easterly winds will allow for smoke to continue to disperse fairly quickly to the point where it's less controllable. The easterly winds will push smoke towards the Gulf shore and other areas in the vicinity. As a result of this, local air quality issues are likely and can impact sensitive groups as firefighters continue to work on mitigating the fire. Additionally, smoke can contribute to lower visibilities on roadways and make driving conditions less safe in certain areas. Caution is advised when driving on the roadways until the fire is fully controlled, and vulnerable populations should consider limiting time outdoors. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1257 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Long term ensembles show a shortwave trough advecting across the central U.S. on Friday with the shortwave attempting to break down the deep-layer ridge over the Southeast U.S. However, with the ridge being highly amplified, it will not break down entirely and rather just be weakened or 'flattened out' in a sense. As the shortwave trough then advects offshore, upper level ridging re- amplifies in conjunction with a deep-layer trough forming over the Great Lakes region this weekend. This trough is expected to be strong enough to the point where it forces some downstream vorticity and a frontal boundary southwards towards northern Florida and simultaneously weakens the ridging pattern. Moisture would also be expected to increase as the front moves southwards. However, ensembles still keep 500mb heights around the 90-95th percentile through Sunday morning, hinting that the high pressure has a good chance to hold onto its control of the local weather through the first half of the weekend despite incoming low pressure trying to advect into the area. If this trend holds firm, mostly dry weather would be expected to continue minus some isolated shower activity occurring as a result of increased daytime high temperatures under the ridge pattern and a slight increase in moisture availability as some modest moisture advection occurs from a low in the Caribbean. As the frontal boundary washes out after it enters northern Florida and the ridge finally loses its strength, PWATs may rise back to climatological norms over the weekend and into next week (1.2-1.4") which can support some weak shower activity even under a high pressure pattern, particularly as a result of sea breeze circulations. Overall, most ensemble members and clusters at this time still favor drier solutions for this weekend and into Monday next week, and even these few wetter solutions for the Sat-Mon time frame do not favor a highly active period with total QPF for each 24-hour period being below 0.5". As a result, the latest forecast keeps conditions predominantly dry with only slight chances for some shower activity returning at the beginning of next week on Monday and Tuesday. Overall, ensembles do highlight a much more active pattern being possible as we approach the middle of next week, but uncertainty remains high on that given its at the end of the forecast period. High temperatures will continue to rise each day through this weekend underneath this large ridging pattern as we see highs rise to the mid to upper 80s along the east coast metro, upper 80s to low 90s for the Gulf coast, and low to mid 90s over the interior. Overnight lows are expected to range each night from the low 60s for the Gulf coast, interior, and lake regions to the upper 60s and low 70s for the east coast metro. As the frontal boundary then works southwards and washes out through the area early next week, a cool down back to more normal temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s is possible. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 659 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Easterly winds 5-10 kts this morning increase to 10-15 kts this afternoon. A westerly Gulf breeze will develop at APF this afternoon. SCT to BKN ceilings around 4k ft today. && .MARINE... Issued at 1257 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A moderate breeze will be in place across the Atlantic waters through the end of this week with a gentle breeze in the Gulf waters. Seas of 4-6 feet expected in the local Atlantic waters and 2 feet or less in the Gulf waters. Seas fall a bit further in the Atlantic today to 2-4 feet and should remain in this range for the rest of the week while Gulf seas remain at 1-2 feet or less. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1257 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A high risk for rip currents continues through at least Thursday this week. While this risk may decrease a bit for Friday and this weekend, an elevated risk may still persist into the weekend as onshore flow continues. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 80 69 82 71 / 0 0 10 0 West Kendall 82 65 84 67 / 0 0 10 0 Opa-Locka 82 68 83 70 / 0 0 10 0 Homestead 81 69 82 71 / 0 0 10 0 Fort Lauderdale 78 70 80 71 / 0 0 10 0 N Ft Lauderdale 79 69 80 71 / 0 0 10 0 Pembroke Pines 83 70 85 71 / 0 0 10 0 West Palm Beach 79 67 81 69 / 0 0 10 0 Boca Raton 79 69 80 71 / 0 0 10 0 Naples 85 64 85 66 / 0 0 10 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ168-172- 173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Redman LONG TERM....Redman AVIATION...CMF  745 FXUS66 KMFR 151101 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 401 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .DISCUSSION...Precipitation ahead of an approaching cold front is falling across areas west of and along the Cascades, with a few stray showers getting farther east. Tripcheck webcams are showing snowfall around Diamond Lake as well as along parts of Highway 97 early this morning. The most active period for this front looks to be through this morning and afternoon. Coastal areas may see periods of moderate to heavy rainfall, with moderate rainfall also possible into the Umpqua and Illinois valleys. Impactful snowfall over the Cascades is also expected to continue in this timeframe, with SPC guidance keeping 80- 90% chances for snowfall rates to reach 1 inch per hour over peaks and ridgelines and 60-80% chances for neighboring areas. Snowfall over the Cascades continues into the afternoon, but at decreasing rates. Rainfall will reach the Rogue and Applegate valleys in this timeframe. Gusty winds look to develop over broad areas east of the Cascades as well. Precipitation and winds ease into the evening and night. Snow levels drop to 2500 feet late tonight and could reach 1500 feet by Thursday morning. At this point, only scattered post-frontal showers are expected and widespread winter impacts are not a concern. The cold air mass behind the front looks to bring cool overnight lows from tonight into Thursday morning and again from Thursday night into Friday morning. A Frost Advisory will be in place for the Rogue, Applegate, and Illinois valleys for tonight into Thursday, as lingering cloud cover looks to keep temperatures just above freezing concerns. Localized freezing conditions may be possible in some areas, notably in the southern Illinois Valley. A Freeze Watch covers the Thursday night-Friday morning timeframe, as there's some question how cold that night will get. A number of hazard products are in place to further communicate the impacts of this active period. A Winter Weather Advisory for the Cascades from Crater Lake northward and above 4000 feet remains in place through Thursday morning. A Wind Advisory for most of Lake County as well as the Warner Mountains and areas north of Alturas in Modoc County highlights dangerous travel conditions in these areas. An upper ridge will bring drier conditions and warmer daytime highs on Friday and Saturday. Long-term guidance shows a low pressure system approaching from the northwest. Details for this system remain coarse, with some variations between the ECMWF and GFS outcomes. This system may bring a southerly flow pattern that tends to focus precipitation at Curry County as well as parts of western Siskiyou County, per ECMWF imagery. Or it might bounce off a ridge and linger over the Pacific before moving inland on Monday, per GFS imagery. Initial snow levels are in the 5000-7000 foot range, which would limit winter impacts. Showers may continue beyond Monday, depending on how this system behaves. -TAD && .AVIATION (06Z TAFs)... A front will move across the area tonight and Wednesday. This will result in widespread precipitation through Wednesday afternoon. As a result, expect widespread MVFR conditions to develop. Areas of IFR ceilings and visibilities are expected along the coast late tonight and early Wednesday morning. Probabilities were not high enough to include IFR (ceilings/visibilities) for inland sites at this time, but there is an 8%-18% chance for IFR conditions inland. Widespread mountain obscurations are expected tonight through Wednesday. Conditions will gradually improve becoming a mix of MVFR and VFR late Wednesday afternoon and evening. && .MARINE...Updated 200 AM PDT Wednesday, April 15, 2026...A front will bring rain, strong winds, and steep seas today. Localized areas of very steep and hazardous seas are possible north of Coos Bay today into Thursday morning. Conditions improve late Thursday, but a weak thermal trough may bring gusty northerly winds to the waters south of Cape Blanco late Thursday into Friday. Another active system may bring additional rainfall and steep seas this weekend. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for ORZ024. Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT this evening for ORZ030-031. Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ027. CA...Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for CAZ080. Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT this evening for CAZ085. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Thursday for PZZ350-356-370-376. && $$  769 FXUS61 KBOX 151101 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 701 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated marine section. General forecast trends remain consistent. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Summer-like warmth continues today away from the coast while a backdoor front brings cooler temperatures to parts of eastern MA. - Showers and storms possible again this afternoon and evening. - Milder temperatures in western MA/CT, cooler in eastern MA/RI Thursday-Saturday. Periods of showers and storms Friday. - Strong cold front Sunday ushers in cooler temperatures for early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Summer-like warmth continues today away from the coast while a backdoor front brings cooler temperatures to parts of eastern MA. The unseasonably warm airmass continues to sit over southern New England today, with 925 mb temperatures ranging from 15C to as high as 21C over CT. Generally, highs once again will likely reach the low to mid 80s over parts of the interior, particularly western MA into CT. For eastern MA and possibly even SE MA though, a backdoor front is expected to move into the region sometime this afternoon, keeping highs near the coast in the 60s with spots on the Cape and far NE MA only in the upper 50s. Cloud cover is also expected to be persistent closer to the coasts, with generally partly cloudy skies further into the interior. The greatest uncertainty with today's temperatures lies with how far inland the backdoor front might push today. There is a chance that more inland parts of SE MA into RI may reach the low 80s today if the front moves in later in the afternoon, but if it ends up being more progressive earlier in the afternoon, highs may be capped moreso in the low 70s. The closer to the front itself, the more uncertainty there will be with temperatures. KEY MESSAGE 2...Showers and storms possible again this afternoon and evening. A weak shortwave approaches the region today as well, which will aid in the development of more showers and thunderstorms, particularly late afternoon and evening. Latest forecast soundings still have 0-6 km shear values greater than 40 knots, particularly in the RAP guidance. The latest HREF even has some members drawing out some helicity swaths around parts of western MA. MLCAPE values between 500-1100 J/kg around 4 PM this evening out in western MA with the combination of the stronger shear and very little CIN would be favorable for thunderstorm development that could even turn severe, however, mid-level lapse rates are quite weak. Anything that develops in the afternoon/evening hours would likely be quite limited in coverage before becoming more concentrated over CT, RI, and the south coast heading into the overnight period. KEY MESSAGE 3...Milder temperatures in western MA/CT, cooler in eastern MA/RI Thursday-Saturday. Periods of showers and storms Friday. The unseasonably warm temperatures aloft persist heading into the latter half of the week, and another shortwave (which appears to be a bit more potent) approaches late Thursday night. With this disturbance moving through, more rain showers can be expected especially for Friday. The continued cloud cover then combined with the showery/stormy conditions should also limit temperatures to being more in the mid 60s to low 70s for much of the region, with mid 70s still possible out in the CT River Valley. Low pressure to the south of the region will also help usher in the return of onshore flow over southern New England Saturday, which will really moderate temperatures; highs for Saturday may only reach the mid 50s near the immediate eastern coastline and the 60s over the interior. 925 mb temperatures Saturday fall to around 10C with this pattern. The backdoor frontal boundary lingers in the area through this 3-day period as well, so temperatures may change significantly depending on how far south the front slides in Thursday-Saturday. KEY MESSAGE 4...Strong cold front Sunday ushers in cooler temperatures for early next week. Following this pattern, a strong cold front pushes through southern New England. The much colder airmass (925 mb temperatures down to around -5C) moves in, crashing into the much warmer one we've been seeing. Highs in the 40s and 50s can be expected post- frontal passage, starting off the week much cooler and notably drier. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today...High Confidence in trends. VFR through about 16-18Z, then MVFR cigs. Sea-breeze likely at BOS again between 15-17Z. Additional rounds of SHRA/TSRA possible tomorrow afternoon and evening, though exact timing is still a bit uncertain. Tonight...High Confidence. MVFR/IFR ceilings with SHRA and light and variable winds. Some lingering TSRA possible through 03z. Tomorrow...Moderate Confidence. Starting off IFR/MVFR, then improving to VFR. Some marginal MVFR cigs may linger with a continued low chance SHRA for much of northern MA. Isolated TSRA further to the west cannot be ruled out. KBOS Terminal... High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal... High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/... Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Sunday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Small Craft Advisory will drop off at 8 AM as seas continue to diminish. S winds today may occasionally gust to around 20 kt over the southern waters. Winds over the eastern waters will be more E. Winds remain below 10 kt tonight over the eastern waters, with the southern waters remaining below 15 kt. Seas remain between 2-4 ft today through tomorrow. Fog may persist this morning and possibly through the day today. Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/... Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. && .CLIMATE... Upcoming record highs: Wed 4/15 Boston 82 in 1896 Hartford 88 in 1941 Providence 82 in 1938 Worcester 85 in 1941 && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for ANZ255- 256. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hrencecin AVIATION...BW/Hrencecin MARINE...Hrencecin CLIMATE...Nocera  440 FXUS64 KFWD 151101 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 601 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered storms are expected again this afternoon. There is a risk for strong to severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds in portions of North Texas. - A strong cold front will move through on Saturday, accompanied by scattered showers and storms. - Much cooler conditions will linger into early next week before temperatures begin to warm back up. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 143 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Overall, expect a temporary period of quieter weather as latest radar trends and high-resolution model guidance back away from much precipitation within North and Central Texas through this morning. Much of the lingering storms down near the Big Bend are expected to weaken and dissipate as they advance northeast into more stable air. We cannot rule out that some of the remnants from these storms make it further into North Texas near daybreak, allowing for some light morning rain, but this scenario is looking more unlikely. We will continue to carry a mention of PoPs for the northwestern half of the CWA through morning for this low potential. Otherwise, the next window of convective development will be over the afternoon into the evening as a shortwave disturbance moves across the Plains. Once again, scattered storms are expected to develop along the dryline to our west and move northeast late this afternoon. This activity will pose a threat for strong to severe storms in our northwestern counties, with the main threats of large hail and damaging winds. Low-level wind fields look to be unfavorable for much of a tornado threat this afternoon, however we'll keep an eye on this potential going through the rest of the day. Further east of the dryline towards the I-35 corridor, there remains the potential for scattered warm-sector showers and storms, though exact locations and coverage remain more uncertain. The severe threat is lower with this eastern activity, but any more robust storms that develop would carry a threat for hail and winds. Similar to days prior, convection will wane with the loss of daytime heating, though cannot rule out some lingering rain in our northeast going into Thursday morning as the shortwave moves past. The rest of the day Thursday will be warm, muggy, and mostly dry as upper-level ridging builds in between our departing shortwave and the parent trough to the west. Expect afternoon highs mainly in the mid-upper 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 143 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 The parent trough will continue to spread towards the Plains on Friday, shunting the ridge east and sending the system's attendant cold front south. Out ahead of the front, a deepening lee-side surface low will promote breezy conditions throughout the day Friday. The front is progged to move through North and Central Texas early Saturday, bringing breezy north winds and cooler temperatures to kick off the weekend. Enough moisture is expected to pool near and along the boundary to allow for scattered showers and storms as the front pushes south. The severe weather threat is fairly low overall at this time, however, steep lapse rates and enough present instability may promote a couple more robust storms capable of small hail and strong winds. The higher severe threat would remain generally to our north closer to the greatest lift from the system. Expect cooler conditions to persist into early next week. Model guidance continues to highlight the potential for additional rain chances early next week as a disturbance moves across the Southern Plains, but it is too early to hash out specifics. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 601 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 MVFR cigs have spread across the region, and are expected to persist until closer to 18Z where they will finally lift back to VFR. Southerly winds are expected to increase in speed and gust this afternoon, remaining elevated (between 10-15 kts) the rest of the period. Scattered showers and storms remain possible this afternoon, with the timing of potential impacts between 21-01Z for the airports. The thunder potential for D10 remains low and uncertain due to spotty coverage and convective development, while greatest chances for thunderstorms will likely impact the Bowie cornerpost during this time. Have persisted with a mention of VCSH late afternoon in D10, and have added VCTS for ACT where the thunder probabilities are higher. We will continue to watch for increasing lightning potential this afternoon and amend as necessary. Any precipitation will dissipate over this evening, with another round of MVFR stratus likely a couple hours prior to daybreak. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1232 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 80 68 87 67 / 50 30 0 0 Waco 81 67 85 66 / 50 30 0 0 Paris 79 65 83 65 / 50 50 10 0 Denton 79 65 86 65 / 50 20 0 10 McKinney 78 67 85 67 / 50 30 0 0 Dallas 81 67 87 68 / 50 30 0 0 Terrell 81 67 85 66 / 50 40 0 0 Corsicana 83 69 87 69 / 50 40 0 0 Temple 82 68 87 67 / 40 30 0 0 Mineral Wells 81 63 88 65 / 50 10 0 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Prater LONG TERM....Prater AVIATION...Prater  117 FXUS63 KILX 151102 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 602 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A 60-80% chance of scattered thunderstorms exists throughout the day. This evening, especially after 4 PM and primarily north of Interstate 70, there is a Slight Risk (Level 2 out of 5) for severe weather. - Late Friday evening, areas generally west of Interstate 57 face a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for another round of severe weather. - Significantly cooler weather returns this weekend. There will be a low (20-30%) chance for frost Saturday night north of Interstate 70, and a higher chance area-wide Sunday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 313 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Two primary areas of convective activity are visible on the radar this morning. One area is situated across southeast Iowa and northern Illinois, near the main synoptic front. The second area is lifting across the Missouri Ozarks. Both are fueled by a low-level jet and shortwave energy ejecting ahead of the main upper trough, which is currently moving across the lee of the Rockies. Convective tops are notably warming over the Ozarks as this system encounters drier mid-level air, weaker instability, and reduced surface moisture convergence. As the shortwave/MCV continues its northeast track out of the Ozarks and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley later this morning, it is expected to interact with outflow boundaries from decaying northern storms that will have drifted south of the main synoptic front. The net effect will be an area of re-blossoming convection over central Illinois this morning. While a tenuous low-level jet may sustain this activity into the early afternoon, the severe threat remains low due to relatively poor lapse rates and shallow CAPE profiles. Thunderstorm activity is expected to briefly lull this afternoon as the shortwave/MCV departs and subsidence occurs, leaving a somewhat worked-over warm sector. However, this lull may be short-lived due to quickly increasing synoptic ascent within a difluent zone ahead of the main upper-level shortwave moving into the lower Missouri valley. Conditions are expected to become more favorable for severe weather, particularly west of Interstate 55, where CAPE profiles will become chubbier as mid-level lapse rates steepen ahead of the main upper-level shortwave and near a residual Elevated Mixed Layer (EML). With better CAPE and deep-layer shear of 30 knots or greater, supercell and multicell clusters are possible across west- central Illinois. Modeled hodographs from the HREF Mean suggest straight or N-shaped profiles, which are more indicative of splitting supercells capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. While it is uncertain if these storms will be surface-rooted or elevated, an intensifying low-level jet this evening will increase Storm Relative Helicity (SRH) and result in a more curved hodograph. This introduces a tornado threat if storms manage to become surface-rooted. Regardless of storm initiation/evolution for the late afternoon through early evening period, CAM output becomes more consistent by tonight that additional storms upstream will congeal and grow upscale into a linear MCS overtime as the effective surface boundary sags southward into central Illinois. In addition to the severe weather threat, there is a low potential for localized flash flooding, particularly if storms repeatedly track over the same area. The latest HREF QPF LPMM highlights a narrow area in east-central Illinois that could see 3-5 inches of rain through Thursday morning. This is notable, as current 6-hour flash flood guidance suggests that general flooding issues could arise after 2.5-3 inches of rain. A break from storm activity is expected across the entire region on Thursday, driven by synoptic-scale subsidence following the departure of the upper trough. However, the threat of thunderstorms returns over the weekend, specifically beginning Friday night and lasting into Saturday. This renewed activity is tied to a compact shortwave trough lifting across the Mid-Mississippi Valley, preceding a more robust, pivoting trough and its associated cold front. Despite the frontal passage occurring during a diurnally unfavorable time, the parameter space for CAPE and shear appears sufficiently volatile to support an organized risk of severe weather which lasts through the overnight hours as the convection grows upscale along the front. A significant cooling trend is expected from Saturday night through Monday following the passage of the cold front, as the previous week's warm, moist air mass is displaced. Latest NBM guidance indicates a concern for widespread frost, with low temperatures Saturday and Sunday night anticipated to fall into the 30s. By the middle of next week, temperatures are forecast to quickly rebound into the lower 70s. This warming trend is due to an upper-level pattern exhibiting some blockiness, allowing an amplified ridge axis to build into the region. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 548 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Multiple periods of showers and thunderstorms will push across the central Illinois terminals throughout the TAF period. Timing when these may impact a particular terminal remains very low confidence at this point, resulting in an extended period of PROB30 for TSRA through tonight. Away from storms, VFR conditions are expected. Southwest winds will continue through the period, gusting to 25 kt at times. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...MJA DISCUSSION...MJA AVIATION...MJA/25  838 FXUS63 KLMK 151103 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 703 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Well-above normal temperatures continue throughout the upcoming week. A few temperature records may be in jeopardy tomorrow. * Dry weather is likely to continue today and tonight (~90% confidence). The next chance for rainfall is expected Thursday, with some strong storms possible in the afternoon and evening. * A stronger cold front will bring a chance for showers and storms again on Saturday. Another low-end threat for strong storms exists with this system. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 349 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Mild conditions continue across southern IN and central KY this morning with temperatures in the upper 60s and low 70s as of 07Z. Scattered high clouds continue to stream across the region, with these clouds spreading east from overnight convection across the southern Plains. No significant weather is expected through sunrise, with mild temperatures and light S/SW breezes continuing across the area. Today's forecast is pretty similar to the last few days as southeast US upper ridging and broad SW flow across the Plains and Midwest continues. Within this belt of SW flow, an unseasonably warm and unstable air mass will again be present just to the north and west of our area, with waves of strong to severe storms expected to continue this afternoon and evening. HREF paintball plots of reflectivity greater than 30 dBZ shows the vast majority of the convective activity remaining along and north of I-70 today, though there is a 10-15% chance that a stray storm could approach our northern row of IN counties later today. Otherwise, the main story today will be the continuation of well-above normal temperatures, with highs expected to reach the low-to-mid 80s this afternoon. SW winds of 10-15 mph with gusts of 20-30 mph are expected again today, along with a scattered stratocumulus field in addition to the high clouds. An upper-level shortwave will begin to erode the southeast ridge tonight, with the greatest height falls across the Ohio Valley not expected until early Thursday morning. As a result, showers and thunderstorms should begin to push closer to the area after midnight, though it's unlikely that most of this activity will reach our western counties until the pre-dawn hours on Thursday. For most of tonight, expect another mild night with temperatures falling through the 70s into the 60s with light S/SW winds. As convection approaches our area Thursday morning, it is expected to outrun the best instability axis. As a result, showers and storms should be weakening as they move across SW IN/W KY, and there's only a ~15% chance of thunder by the time activity reaches our western counties. After sunrise Thursday, rain showers should continue to weaken as they approach the I-65 corridor, with increasing clouds expected with this wave of showers. How long these clouds can remain over the area will determine the extent of the strong/severe storm threat Thursday, as lingering clouds could limit the amount of instability available for storms Thursday afternoon and evening. 0Z HREF progs show an axis of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE nosing in from the southwest as sfc dewpoints should be in the upper 50s and low-to-mid 60s. 45-50 kt 500 mb flow should allow for roughly 40 kt of effective bulk shear, so organized multicells and perhaps a few bowing segments would be possible. The main severe hazard tomorrow afternoon should be damaging wind gusts, though if any of the higher- end instability progs verifies, severe hail would also be possible. The window for strong to severe storms should be between roughly 4 PM and 10 PM, with instability decreasing after sunset Thursday. Once showers and storms dissipate Thursday night, clearing skies and light winds are expected through Friday morning. Any areas which receive rainfall could see patchy fog develop Friday morning. Low temperatures should fall into the upper 50s and low-to-mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 349 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Friday and Friday Night... Another upper trough ejecting across the Rockies and into the Plains during the day on Friday will cause ridging to flex northward into the Ohio Valley, though this episode of the southeast US ridging should be short-lived. Southwest flow should increase during the day on Friday, with another day of near-record temperatures expected as highs should reach the low-to-mid 80s. Upper ridging should be strong enough to keep most areas dry Friday into Friday evening, with waves of strong to severe convection again passing to the NW of the region. There is still a modest signal that a few showers could develop as the LLJ intensifies and pushes into the area Friday night, with the best chances for rain through Saturday morning expected west of I-65. Saturday and Saturday Night... Upper troughing over the Plains is expected to amplify as it crosses the Mississippi Valley on Sunday, with the trough expected to remain fairly open/positively-tilted as it approaches the Ohio Valley. The sfc low associated with this upper wave is expected to be over central Ontario by Saturday afternoon, with an extensive cold front stretching to the south-southwest into the Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the front, S/SW winds should allow for another warm day on Saturday, with sustained winds of 10-15 mph and gusts of 20-30 mph expected. Temperatures are expected to reach the upper 70s and low 80s Saturday afternoon, with increasing clouds and showers/storms limiting heating, especially west of I-65. Uncertainty with how much destabilization will occur is again a limiting factor for the severe storm potential Saturday into Saturday evening. Current LREF 50th percentile SBCAPE values range from 400-800 J/kg across the area, with high-end (90th percentile) values around 1000-1400 J/kg. This will be sufficient for strong storms given the strong forcing along the front and ~40 kt of effective bulk shear; however, if there is more early-day showers and cloud cover, the overall threat would be reduced. Model soundings show fairly unidirectional shear profiles ahead of the front, and linear convective modes would be the most likely. As a result, continue to think that damaging winds would be the main threat with any strong storms. In the 0Z guidance, timing has remained fairly consistent, with the best chances for storms crossing the area between the early afternoon and just after sunset Saturday. By the late evening hours Saturday, winds are expected to veer to the W/NW, with temperatures tumbling into the 40s Sunday morning. Showers may linger across east central and southeast KY into the pre-dawn hours Sunday, with rapid clearing taking place to the NW. Sunday into Early Next Week... Seasonably cool and dry weather is expected for Sunday and Monday as the synoptic pattern remains progressive and upper troughing quickly crosses the region. Sfc high pressure should move over the area Sunday night into Monday morning, with this likely being the coolest morning over the next 7 days. There are 40-50% chances for low temperatures that would be support frost (<= 37F) Monday morning, so that's something we'll have to monitor in the otherwise quiet pattern. A warming trend is expected as we head toward the middle of next week, with NW flow keeping conditions dry through next Tuesday. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 702 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions continue today with wind gusts picking up out of the SW later this morning. During the late morning and afternoon hours, all sites should see sustained winds of 12-16 kt with gusts of 20-25 kt likely. SCT/BKN stratocumulus with bases around 5k ft are already showing up in some regional obs, and should be intermittent through the day. This evening, winds should diminish around sunset with S/SW winds around 6-12 kt expected overnight. Early Thursday morning, rain showers will begin to approach HNB, and some model guidance is showing a TEMPO wind shift toward the W/SW. These showers are expected to move across the area Thursday morning after the end of the current forecast period (except at SDF). && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CSG LONG TERM...CSG AVIATION...CSG  977 FXUS64 KMEG 151104 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 604 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 602 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Daytime high temperatures through Friday will be more typical of late May or early June, as a strong upper level ridge continues to dominate the Mid-South's weather. Friday is expected to be the warmest day of the week, with highs expected to approach 90 degrees across a majority of the Mid-South. - A passing upper-level trough will bring a medium chance of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday. There is low to medium confidence for a few strong to severe thunderstorms Thursday afternoon into early Thursday evening. - A cold front will pass through the Midsouth on Saturday, bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms. Sunny, cool, and less humid conditions will prevail for Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 1103 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 00Z upper air analysis features an upper-level ridge centered over Florida with southwest flow aloft present from the Southern Plains and across the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys. Warm and humid conditions are present across the Mid-South with late evening temperatures in the 70s with surface dewpoints in the lower 60s. An anomalously strong upper-level ridge will bring well above normal temperatures to the Mid-South through Friday. This ridge will remain in place on Wednesday, resulting in rain-free conditions and highs in the 80s. Short-term models indicate mid- level heights weakening late Wednesday night into Thursday morning as a shortwave trough moves across the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes Region. Short-term CAMs indicate upstream overnight convection will weaken late Wednesday night as it encounters a more stable airmass over the area. Favorable forcing will move away from the region during the morning hours with a secondary shortwave moving through the region Thursday afternoon into early Thursday evening. Favorable conditions for strong to severe thunderstorms are anticipated for Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening if the atmosphere can become unstable again. LREF joint probabilities of 1000 J/kg surface-based CAPE and Bulk Shear in excess of 30 kts indicate a medium (40-60%) chance of strong to severe thunderstorms along and north of I-40. Model soundings also indicate steep mid-level lapse rates and relatively straight hodographs which support a hail and wind threat for any severe thunderstorms. Shortwave ridging will build in behind this front for Friday with near record highs expected as temperatures approach 90 degrees for the first time this year. This warm period of weather will come to an end this weekend as a cold front brings another chance for showers and thunderstorms to the Mid-South. Neither of these systems are expected to produce enough rainfall to overcome the moderate to extreme drought conditions occurring this spring thus far. Slightly below normal to near normal temperatures are expected behind the front into early next week. Above normal temperatures are anticipated to make a return next week, but confidence remains low for additional rain chances with a large spread in model solutions for next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 602 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 There is a high confidence (>80%) for VFR conditions through this evening. Gusty SSW winds will develop again today. Gusts will reach 20-30 kts at MEM, MKL, and JBR with lighter winds at TUP. A rapidly weakening convective complex will push into the area from the northwest later tonight. The best chance for showers (>50%) will be at JBR, so a TEMPO is warranted there. Confidence is lower at MEM and MKL where PROB30s were used. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1103 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Fire weather concerns will be minimal throughout the week as MinRH remains above 30 percent. Wetting rain chances exist on Thursday for areas mainly along and north of I-40. A cold front will bring additional rainfall Saturday, across a broad portion of the Mid-South. Despite cool temperatures on Sunday, MinRH values Sunday afternoon are expected to drop below 30 percent over the majority of the Midsouth. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC AVIATION...SJM  512 FXUS63 KFGF 151105 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 437 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of dense fog thru mid morning. - There is a 20% chance for advisory level winter impacts from accumulating snow and gusty winds late Thursday night into early Saturday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 434 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Area if low clouds remain in parts of NW MN, Detroit Lakes to Park Rapids north to near Thief River Falls and Waskish. But also seeing widespread fog in the clearer areas of far northwest MN Waskish-TRF and north and considerable fog, some dense in eastern ND, not including Devils Lake. Dense fog advisory out for these areas thru 14zz. There were a few very light rain showers that moved east from Bismarck but they look to have dissipated by Jamestown, with pocket of mid clouds with that. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 306 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...Synopsis... Large scale pattern features a split in zonal flow over the Northern Plains, with a mid level shortwave east of our region. Surface high pressure is in place with stratus slowly starting to break up. Additional fog/stratus may redevelop later tonight after the current low clouds clear, with better chances for mainly aviation impacts in north central MN. Deeper westerly flow aloft will support deepening low pressure on the Lee side of the Northern Rockies and increasing southerly flow/WAA Wednesday through Thursday morning. A deepening mid/upper level trough over the Pacific Northwest builds eastward late this week into the weekend. The initial cold front arrives late in the day Thursday and may result in a large spread in potential high temperatures north to south (low 50s to near 80F depending on timing within our CWA). It will also bring chances for rain and snow back to our region from Friday through Saturday. As that trough passes, there is a strong consensus in mid/upper level ridging arriving by early next week, with rising heights reflective of increasing temperatures (60s/70s by Tuesday). This pattern also lowers the probability of measurable precipitation, though the orientation of the ridge/flow aloft may still allow for fast moving shortwave trough passages near our CWA. ...Winter travel impact potential Friday into Saturday... As stronger synoptic ascent and WAA in the 850-700 MB layer overspread our CWA several periods of light to moderate precipitation (mainly rain) should move west to east through our CWA Friday into Saturday morning. All ensembles at this time support the main closed 700MB low tracking over Manitoba, placing the potential for stronger frontogensis to the north, while most precipitation in our CWA will be driven by WAA or broader deformation on the back side of the 500MB low. While there is overall strong consensus on the larger scale track, smaller scale features at the surface (low track/frontal timing) still play a role in the potential for winter impacts. A larger number of ensemble members generally keep temperature profiles in place supportive of liquid with surface temperatures above freezing outside of the overnight/morning periods for most locations (limiting potential for accumulating snow or a wintry mix). In this scenario (80% chance) most areas would see little to no accumulation (better chance for 1" in the Devils Lake Basin). There is still a subset of members (20%) that support more organized deformation while temperature profiles are cold enough for all snow and have better chance for snow totals greater than 3". As ground temperatures are warmer, most of this will tend to be on grassy/elevated surfaces that may limit impacts outside of snow rates/wind reducing visibility where moderate/brief heavy snow would track. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1135 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Really no changes to the 6z set of TAFs from the 0z issuance. Fog will develop tonight, being most likely at KBJI, KTVF and KFAR. Fog may sneak into KGFK for a few hours around sunrise. Timing of fog is approximate in the TAF and it could shift a little earlier or later. For Wednesday, VFR is forecast, with south to southwesterly winds of 10 to 15 knots. Winds die down Wednesday evening. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for NDZ007-008- 016-026>030-038-039-049-052>054. MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MNZ001>009- 013>017-029-030-040. && $$ UPDATE...Riddle DISCUSSION...DJR AVIATION...Rafferty  363 FXUS64 KHGX 151107 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 607 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and humid conditions continue through the end of the work week with heat index values in the 90s Thursday/Friday. - Rain chances increase over the weekend as a cold front moves into the region. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible. - Seasonal conditions expected in the wake of the front going into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1050 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The warming trend continues as we add on a degree or two to Wednesday's high temperatures as they peak mainly in the mid 80s. Southwesterly flow aloft continues to filter in drier air...well...aloft with model guidance still reflecting much drier air above 850mb remaining in place through at least Wednesday. This drier air aloft also comes with warmer air aloft leading to a capping inversion. There is enough low-level moisture in place beneath the cap to squeeze out sporadic light rain/sprinkles...but not expecting anything of note. The potential exception to this is for the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods on late Wednesday afternoon/evening. Some thunderstorms may develop out in western/central Texas along the dry line, and there is a non-zero chance that a few storms skirt near our northern counties. Especially with with favorable placement of a jet streak (right entrance region) and a LLJ, but the storms will be fighting an uphill battle if they move this direction due to previously mentioned capping inversion. Unsurprisingly, the CAMs (me included) aren't that excited about anything more than showers making their way into Southeast Texas. PW values begin to increase towards the end of the work week, so some isolated streamer showers will remain possible. By the end of the work week, 850mb temperatures increase near the 90th percentile leading to high temperatures peaking in the upper 80s. The probability of high temperatures reaching the 90 degree mark are low on Thursday/Friday, but they aren't zero! Either way, the elevated low-level moisture will lead to heat index values in the low to mid 90s on Thursday and Friday. Low temperatures will be mainly in the upper 60s to low 70s through the work week. Going into the weekend is when the forecast gets interesting once again as a cold front approaches. An upper level trough with an embedded upper low will transition from the Pacific Northwest on Thursday to the Four Corners region by Friday. Surface low pressure subsequently develops through lee cyclogenesis near Oklahoma/Kansas. This low then travels northeastward towards the Great Lakes region, which pushes a cold front into Southeast Texas late Saturday afternoon/evening. Moisture convergence along the front leads to PW values surging near or above the 90th percentile (~1.57"). Showers and storms are likely along and ahead of the frontal boundary as it pushes through the region. Some of these storms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall with rainfall rates likely peaking in the 2-3+"/hr range. These storms will be more progressive than what we experienced over the past weekend, but these high rainfall rates could lead to localized instances of flooding especially in low-lying areas and areas with poor drainage. As a result, WPC has outlined areas generally north of I-10 in a marginal risk (level 1 of 4) of excessive rainfall on Saturday. Showers may linger into Sunday morning until the drier air fully filters in. Northeasterly winds will be a bit breezy in the wake of the front, especially near the coast through Sunday. A coastal Wind Advisory is possible. Since we are catching the tail-end of this front, surface high pressure looks to quickly move out to the east on Monday. There is some variance on exactly how quickly this occurs, but the general trend is for low-level moisture to begin to increase on Monday. This pairs with an embedded shortwave trough passing through the region, which brings us another chance of showers and storms. Don't worry, we won't end this discussion talking about rain chances! Let's take a look at probabilistic guidance for post-FROPA temperatures once again as you're gonna want to hear this! If you've been keeping up with the AFD's over the past few nights (first of all thank you for being dedicated...you're the real MVP), then you know the probability for high temperatures below 80 degrees on Sunday and Monday were already fairly high. Whelp...they got even higher! The probability for high temperatures below 80 degrees is now 85-100% areawide for Sunday and Monday! Probabilities gradually trend down beyond that, but still remain in the 60-90% range for Tuesday. But wait, there's more! The probability for low temperatures below 60 degrees has increased to 70-90% for areas north of the Houston metro area and 30-50% elsewhere for Saturday night. For Sunday night, these probabilities peak in the 60-90% range areawide (except along the coast)...and again they gradually trend downward Monday night but they are still generally in the 50-90% range. While the probabilities are trending higher for cooler temperatures behind the upcoming cold front, it's important to keep in mind that there's still plenty of time for the forecast to change and evolve. Don't worry, that won't stop me from getting excited either! :D Batiste && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 539 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 MVFR CIGs and sparse pockets of IFR should lift and eventually clear out later this morning. VFR conditions return by the early afternoon with gusty south to southeasterly winds prevailing throughout the day, later tapering off in the evening. MVFR CIGs fill in again overnight with IFR CIGs possible early Thursday morning. 03 && .MARINE... Issued at 1050 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Moderate onshore flow will persist into at least midweek, so small craft should exercise caution through at least Wednesday. There will be intermittent periods towards the end of the work week where winds increase near the caution flag threshold again. Due to the persistent onshore flow, slightly elevated water levels remain in the forecast throughout the week as P-ETSS guidance continues to reflect water levels reaching 2.5-3.0 ft above MLLW during times of high tide. This could result in some wave run-up along Gulf-facing beaches along with increased risk of rip currents. A cold front and associated showers/storms are expected to push offshore late Saturday/early Sunday bringing a period of elevated offshore winds and seas that will likely prompt Small Craft Advisories going into early next week. Batiste && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1050 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Still monitoring a couple of gauges that are currently cresting in action stage (as of Tuesday evening) in the Lavaca/Navidad River basin following Sunday's heavy rainfall event. The Navidad River at Morales (MRAT2) and at Strane Park (LSNT2) are currently cresting in action stage and are expected to fall out of it by Wednesday morning. These rises are based on routed flow from upstream. Remember that you can monitor updated river forecasts via the NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) Batiste && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 85 69 88 69 / 10 10 0 0 Houston (IAH) 85 71 87 71 / 10 0 10 0 Galveston (GLS) 80 74 80 74 / 10 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through this evening for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375. && $$ DISCUSSION...Batiste AVIATION...03 MARINE...Batiste  652 FXUS63 KOAX 151107 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 607 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe thunderstorms continue to impact portions of southeastern Nebraska and southwestern Iowa overnight. Large hail, gusty winds and torrential rainfall are expected. Training thunderstorms may result in flash flooding. - Additional thunderstorm chances are expected Wednesday and again on Friday. Continue to monitor the forecast for severe weather potential. - Much colder air arrives Friday night/Saturday morning. Lows both Saturday and Sunday mornings will fall into the 20s to low/mid-30s. Additionally, snow chances return to portions of the forecast area Friday night/Saturday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1111 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The forecast period begins with ongoing showers in northern Nebraska and a few strong to severe thunderstorms along the Kansas/Nebraska border. These thunderstorms have been kicking off along a boundary extending from northwest of Concordia, Kansas to northwest of Fremont, Nebraska to north of Council Bluffs, Iowa. DCAPE values are currently in the 800-1100 J/kg range. SBCAPE values range between 1000 to nearly 3000 J/kg. ML lapse rates range from 7-8C/km with LL lapse rates around 6.5-7.5C/km. The main concerns with this line of storms will be large hail and gusty winds. Also of note with tonight's convection is the potential for some flooding. Precipitable water values are around 1.0+ inches along and south of the boundary. Training thunderstorms along and south of the boundary could result in some locations getting quite a bit of rainfall. We will continue to monitor the potential through the night. Heading into Wednesday morning, the low will continue to lift east- northeast. Additional shower/thunderstorm activity is expected as moisture wraps around the low. A few strong to severe thunderstorms will again be possible with hail and wind being the main threats. An isolated tornado cannot be entirely ruled out. Thursday continues to look like our best drying out day as a ridge moves over the region. WAA sets up with highs returning to the upper 70s to mid-80s. Friday continues to be a day to watch closely as we move closer to the event. Low pressure will develop on the lee side of the Rockies Thursday night. An attendant cold front will slide into the region through the day with much colder air pushing in behind it. The cold front appears to be moving into the region slightly faster than yesterday's runs. Areas ahead of the front can expect highs ranging from the mid-70s to low 80s, while areas behind it may struggle into the mid-50s. Warm Gulf air will be streaming into the region through the day. An upper trough will also be arriving heading into the latter part of the day, bringing additional lift to the region. Strong to severe storms are expected to develop along the cold front Friday afternoon and evening with all hazards possible. In addition to the potential for severe storms ahead of the cold front, areas in northern Nebraska behind the front may receive a rain/snow mix, becoming all snow. The snow chances will push south of I-80 heading into daybreak, with rain/snow possible for areas from Friend to Hallam to just east of Council Bluffs. Precipitation chances should decrease heading into the afternoon with just a few showers remaining. Anyone with agricultural interests or outdoor activities will want to monitor the weekend forecast as colder temperatures and potential wintry weather returns to the forecast. Saturday morning temperatures have trended slightly colder, with northern Nebraska expecting temps in the upper 20s. Areas closer to the Kansas/Nebraska/Iowa/Missouri border will fall into the low to mid- 30s. Sunday morning lows will be even colder with more widespread 20s for lows and most areas falling below the freezing mark. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 607 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Spotty showers and storms this morning are favored to remain out of the TAF sites. Higher chances arrive this afternoon at OFK, but guidance suggests higher storm chances will remain east of OMA and LNK for now. That said, still have a 20-30% chance from around 19-00Z. Otherwise, expect a band of MVFR ceilings at OMA and LNK this morning before they rise to VFR/scatter out this afternoon with only passing high clouds after (barring a storm). Expect northeasterly winds to become more northerly this morning, northwesterly this afternoon, and southwesterly this evening. Speeds should generally remain at or below 10 kts outside of any storms. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for NEZ011-012-015>018-030>033-042-043. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ANW AVIATION...CA  915 FXUS63 KUNR 151108 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 508 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions Wednesday and Thursday; a Fire Weather Watch is in effect Thursday. - Cooler with rain/snow behind cold front late Thursday through Friday. - Trending warmer Saturday through early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1003 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Shortwave trough is now crossing eastern portions of the CWA heading toward East River SD. KUDX radar shows lingering showers pushing toward the Missouri River Valley. Quiet weather is expected behind the wave for the rest of tonight through Wednesday as weak upper ridging builds in ahead of the next trough. Winds will be relatively light overnight and min temps will be in the 30s to lower 40s. Highs Wednesday will be in the upper 60s to upper 70s. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected tomorrow as RHs drop to 15% or less across portions of the area. However, winds should be relatively light, so no fire weather headlines are expected. Will let the overnight shift take a second look at the southern Campbell County area where winds should be a little higher, but right now conditions look too marginal and limited in area for a Red Flag Warning. Fire weather conditions may be critical on Thursday given breezy winds and dry RH mainly south of I-90 in western SD. Will continue with the Fire Weather Watch. The next noteworthy weather event will be later in the week as a longwave trough crosses the region. A cold front will cross the CWA Thu afternoon/evening. Some Pacific moisture will be available for a band of of rain to develop Thu evening, then change to snow overnight into Fri. Decent model agreement on the highest snow totals across NE WY, the northern Black Hills...perhaps into NW SD. Generally looks like 0.10-0.40" of QPF with 1-3" of snow...perhaps locally higher amounts across the higher Black Hills. Will wait to see how this system trends within medium range guidance. && .DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Tuesday) Issued at 1256 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Active southwesterly flow continues across the central US. Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough pushing through the Northern Plains and an upper low ejecting out of the Central Rockies along with an active southern stream as moisture streams into the Southern Plains. Surface low pressure is centered over southeastern NE with a weak gradient over the forecast area. Light showers/sprinkles continue across southwestern SD into south- central SD, although a dry boundary layer and lack of appreciable mid-level moisture will limit precipitation amounts. Showers will taper off this afternoon and early evening as subsidence overspreads the region. Warmer and dry tomorrow with temperatures in the upper 60s to upper 70s across the plains. Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions are expected with RH falling into the teens to low 20s, particularly portions of NE WY and SW SD, although there is some uncertainty regarding boundary layer winds/if frequent gusts > 25 mph will develop. Even warmer (along and south of I90 in SD) and drier Thursday ahead of a cold front with critical conditions possible; a Fire Weather Watch is in effect from the Weston County plains through southern SD. Cold front arrives Thursday evening bringing cooler air and potential for rain and snow. Upper trough will eject out of the Central Rockies, although recent guidance shows split flow developing. Pacific moisture advects into the region ahead of this trough, although appreciable moisture is lacking (precipitable water values ~100-125% of normal). Best chance of measurable precipitation across NE WY and the northern Black Hills (NBM prob QPF >0.25" ~30-55%). Warm air advection returns Saturday with temperatures trending warmer through the weekend into early next week with elevated fire weather conditions expected. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Thursday Morning) Issued At 508 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued At 1256 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions expected tomorrow (Wed) across much of the area as RH falls into the teens to low 20s. Best overlap of low RH and stronger winds forecast across southern Campbell and Weston Counties in WY through southwestern SD into the southern Black Hills and foothills. Some uncertainty remains whether winds will reach critical thresholds to warrant a RFW; will continue to monitor. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect Thursday for the Weston County plains through southern SD as stronger southwest winds will develop ahead of a cold front. Daytime minimum RH will fall as low as 12-14 percent Thursday. Mid-level clouds ahead of the front and spotty high-based showers may complicate things Thursday by keeping temperatures a bit cooler and RH higher. However, plan for at least elevated to near-critical conditions Thursday (and Wednesday). && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for SDZ321-322-325-326-332>335. WY...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for WYZ317. && $$ UPDATE...13 DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...SE AVIATION...15 FIRE WEATHER...SE  106 FXUS65 KPSR 151110 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 410 AM MST Wed Apr 15 2026 .UPDATE...Updated Aviation Discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy to locally windy conditions will return for the back half of the work week with elevated Fire Weather conditions focused around the Lower Colorado River Valley on Friday. - After near normal temperatures through Saturday, daytime highs will warm back into the low to mid 90s for at least Sunday and Monday. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Weak upper level ridging is currently moving into the region from the west, but a large Pacific trough moving into the Pacific Northwest is already beginning to disrupt and flatten the ridge. However, height rises today will be enough to raise daytime highs back into the mid 80s in Phoenix to as warm as the upper 80s across southeast California under sunny skies. The Pacific trough is then forecast to track southeastward into the Great Basin later on Thursday, but any height falls over the Desert Southwest will be late Thursday allowing highs to warm further into the upper 80s to maybe a few spots reaching 90 degrees. The pressure gradient will also begin to tighten Thursday leading to a return of breezy conditions during the afternoon and early evening hours. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Model guidance over the past couple of runs has shifted the track of the Pacific trough a bit farther to the north with the track of the main shortwave across Utah into Colorado. However, it should still be close enough to our area to bring a period of northerly windy conditions down the Lower CO River Valley during the first half of Friday while also resulting in a noticeable cooldown. Wind gusts Friday morning across southeast California and the Lower CO River Valley are likely to reach Advisory level in some spots before gradually weakening during the afternoon hours. Elsewhere Friday, afternoon wind gusts should be similar to Thursday with gusts mostly under 25 mph. The latest NBM forecast highs Friday have actually dropped a degree or two from previous runs with readings in the upper 70s to lower 80s across the western deserts to the lower 80s across south-central Arizona. The weather pattern into the weekend and early next week supports another passing ridge with the expectation this ridge will last a bit longer and have more influence on temperatures. The weekend shows very low RHs with readings dipping into the single digits during the afternoon across the lower deserts, while temperatures warm back to near 90 degrees Saturday before topping out in the low to mid 90s on Sunday. Ensembles then favor a deep Pacific low dropping southward off of Oregon and northern California late Sunday and Monday before eventually moving inland somewhere across the Great Basin or even the Desert Southwest by next Tuesday and/or Wednesday. Assuming this occurs, the system would lower temperatures again going into the middle of next week, but it is unlikely to result in any meaningful precipitation chances. && .AVIATION...Updated at 1110Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No major weather concerns will exist through Thursday morning. Expect winds to follow familiar diurnal patterns across the Phoenix airspace with speeds generally AOB 8 kts. Winds for the Southeast CA terminals will favor S/SE during the afternoon and then veer out of a more westerly direction this evening into the overnight hours, with sustained speeds AOB 10 kts and extended periods of variability likely. Clear skies today will be followed by increasing high clouds tonight into Thursday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Gradual drying conditions will prevail over the next couple of days as temperatures return into a normal range. Winds today will again be light while MinRHs fall to 10-15%. Thursday will bring an increase in winds by the afternoon with occasional gusts between 20-25 mph for much of the area. MinRHs Thursday will also fall into the upper single digits across the lower deserts. Locally windy conditions across the western districts on Friday are likely to bring elevated to possibly critical fire weather conditions late morning into the afternoon. Warmer temperatures, even drier conditions, but lighter winds are then expected for the coming weekend. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kuhlman LONG TERM...Kuhlman AVIATION...Whittock FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman  893 FXUS63 KGID 151110 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 610 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...Aviation Update... .KEY MESSAGES... - At least spotty, isolated thunderstorms will be possible almost anywhere in our forecast area today, but mostly favoring our Nebraska counties. The majority of this hit-or- miss activity should be weak. However, a few storms could become strong to marginally-severe (perhaps even outside of SPC's current official Marginal Risk area), capable of producing hail up to around the size of quarters, and/or wind gusts up to around 60 MPH. - Following a brief respite from any truly heightened fire weather concerns today, outright-critical conditions return in earnest for Thursday for our entire forecast area (CWA), and a Fire Weather Watch has been issued from 12-10 PM. Unfortunately, a few more upcoming days could also contain critical fire weather concerns (see separate Fire Weather section below for more details). - Although looking short of any High Wind criteria, moderately strong northerly gusts of 40+ MPH still look likely behind Friday's rather sharp cold frontal passage. - Speaking of Friday's cold front, although we still can't completely declare an "all clear" for any stronger thunderstorm threat mainly for our extreme southeastern CWA for late Friday afternoon-evening, models seem to be locking in an a faster-versus-slower cold frontal passage, likely "sparing" our CWA from a more widespread severe threat that should focus at least slightly to our south/east. - With spring vegetative growth roughly 3 WEEKS "ahead of schedule" per traditional growing degree day (GDD) metrics, we will probably need to issue our first Freeze Warnings and/or Frost Advisories of the season for Saturday AM and/or Sunday AM...for at least slightly-sub-freezing temperatures. - Peeking just beyond our official 7-day forecast: Another large-scale low pressure system could bring some rain chances (great news) and MAYBE a severe thunderstorm threat (not great, but far from a "sure thing") around next Wednesday (April 22). && .UPDATE... Issued at 457 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 -- FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE, BIG PICTURE COMMENTS, AND ANY ABBREVIATED LONGER-TERM FORECAST NOTES (for beyond Thursday): - No truly MAJOR forecast changes to speak of versus previous issuance, although high temps for Friday have come down a good 10-ish degrees (and quite possibly not yet enough) over the past 24 hours as models seem to be honing in on a faster cold frontal passage. - For all other longer-term-related notes, the highlights are covered in "Key Messages" above, and all detailed fire weather concerns are in a separate "Fire Weather" section below. -- FOCUS SOLELY ON THE SHORTER-TERM/NEXT 36 HOURS (through Thursday evening): - CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 4 AM: Looking back over the last 12 hours, as expected the vast majority of our CWA was spared any severe storm threat. However, the late afternoon-early evening hours popped a few rogue stronger storms near/just north of a sharp front bisecting our CWA (nickel hail reported in Hordville), while the later evening hours (mainly 10pm-midnight) brought a less surprising, brief flare-up of a few severe storms (including a slightly-elevated supercell) to our far southeastern CWA (mainly affecting Jewell/Mitchell/Thayer counties)...with these storms erupting along the nose of a nocturnal low level jet. In the hours since, the aforementioned strong/severe storms vacated our far southeast counties. the vast majority of our CWA has been dry, with only some spotty showers/brief weak storms focused mainly north of I-80. In the big picture of the mid-upper levels, water vapor satellite and short term model data confirm that a large-scale trough and associated primary low pressure system is pushing ever-near to us, it's main vorticity max (spin) noted right over the NE/KS/CO border area. Meanwhile, at the surface, a roughly 1002 millibar low pressure center currently resides over our extreme southeastern CWA (Mitchell County area). To it's north and northwest, nearly our entire CWA is thus "post-frontal", with generally northerly breezes sustained at least 5-15 MPH. Under a varied mix of clear skies and clouds, low temperatures are forecast to bottom out upper 40s-mid 50s across most of our CWA. - TODAY-EARLY THIS EVENING (through 7-9 PM): Aloft, the aforementioned upper trough/vort max currently to our west will track eastward....directly overhead...over the course of the day, reaching the IA/NE/MO border area by sunset. Meanwhile at the surface, the low pressure center in our far southeast CWA will steadily track/depart east-northeastward today, reaching central IA by evening. With our CWA positioned entirely behind the departing surface low today (resulting in generally 10-20 MPH breezes through much of the day, gradually shifting from more northerly to more westerly), this will clearly "spare" us from the MAIN severe thunderstorm risk within the greater region...particularly any tornado risk...which will focus within the primary low-level instability/CAPE axis extending from IA/MO southwestward into OK/TX. HOWEVER, with residual low-mid level moisture lingering over our area, along with cooler air aloft under the heart of the upper low passing overhead, this is a rather classic setup for at least a few lines/clusters of isolated-to-scattered showers and mostly-weak thunderstorms to gradually translate across our CWA from west-to-east over the course of the day. While we are carrying at least slight (20%) chances for this activity everywhere, the most concentrated coverage should focus over our Nebraska counties. Getting back to severe potential though, while not high, these setups often yield a FEW strong to perhaps marginally-severe storms, and sometimes "random" funnel clouds that rarely touch down. Whether we actually do end up seeing a couple of rogue severe storms will likely depend on just how much instability/CAPE can be realized, with the latest RAP/HRRR tending to keep CAPE mainly 500 J/kg or less, while the NAM suggests a bit higher potential for CAPE to at least approach 1000 J/kg, which would yield a bit greater potential for a few storms with mainly a quarter size hail and perhaps 60 MPH wind threat. This possible strong/marginally-severe storm threat could be rather "random" in area today, and could even start as early as mid-morning. Officially, SPC has only painted roughly the northeast 1/4th of our CWA in it's official Marginal Risk on the initial Day 1 outlook, but in all reality a rogue severe storm could back into our western counties. In summary: although sparse in coverage, a few strong to MAYBE marginally- severe storms cannot be ruled out today, but any such threat (including all rain chances) should exit our far eastern counties by no later than 7-9 PM as the upper low departs. In other departments today: confidence in "exact" high temps is not overly-high and will depend on how much clearing is able to occur under the passing upper wave, but ultimately kept similar to previous forecast with most places aimed 71-74 degrees. - THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT: Once the back edge of any showers/storms clear our far eastern zones by around sunset, confidence is high in a dry overnight under clear skies. In response to surface low pressure developing over the Dakotas, our breezes will swing around to south-southwesterly, but remain fairly light only around 5-10 MPH. If winds end up a little lighter than forecast, would not be surprised to see low temps drop a little colder than forecast, but for now we're calling for 40-46 most areas, with a few upper 30s possible mainly in Valley/Dawson counties. - THURSDAY DAYTIME-EARLY EVENING: Unfortunately, our main concerns swing right back to fire weather (see separate section below for more details). Under plentiful sunshine, southerly winds will steadily increase through the day as surface low pressure rapidly deepens to our west off the Front Range/High Plains, with sustained speeds by afternoon commonly around 20 MPH/gusts at least 25-30 MPH. The resultant low-level warm air advection will boost high temps a good 10-15 degrees warmer than today, with our forecast still aiming for highs mainly 83-86 degrees. South-southeast winds will remain elevated well into the night as the strong surface low pressure arrives into western NE...just ahead of a strong cold front poised to slice through Friday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 251 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Today... The SPC expanded the marginal severe weather risk area into our forecast area along the nearly stationary boundary running from Kearney towards York. We have seen vertical development in the CU field around the Tri-Cities and are getting close to possible thunderstorm development. We could see a few isolated thunderstorms in this narrow frontal zone where moisture has been pooling allowing dewpoints to climb to around 50F. These will mainly be elevated thunderstorms taking advantage of the steep lapse rates, modest MUCAPE values to around 1000 J/KG, and very strong 0-6 km shear (65 kts). Quarter sized hail is the primary threat, but larger DCAPE values over 1200 J/KG suggest that strong wind gusts to 60 mph will also be possible with any of these thunderstorms. Tonight... We could see some scattered showers or even an isolated thunderstorm, but most areas will likely stay dry. However, things could get more interesting during the day on Wednesday. Wednesday... The last two runs (12Z and 18Z) of the RRFS have been indicating thunderstorm development across our western zones around dawn. These thunderstorms then track northeast through the morning, could impact the Tri-Cities, and exit our northeastern forecast area early Wednesday afternoon (likely before 3 PM). Although our forecast area is not currently outlooked for severe weather, it is possible that the severe weather threat area may need to be expanded to include some of our Nebraska counties. The main threat will again be hail and wind through early afternoon. Breezy northwesterly winds in the afternoon along with cooler 60s behind the storm system may result in it feeling not as nice as one might expect. Thursday... This is a high confidence warm day with highs back into the 80s. It should be dry and we have some fire weather concerns, please see the fire weather section below. Friday Through next Weekend... A big open wave upper trough will race across the plains, but the timing is not favorable for our area to see much if any precipitation. An expected Friday morning frontal passage will likely result in falling temperatures on Friday. Our forecast is probably too warm and would not be surprised if see some areas falling into the 40s Friday afternoon. Even if it starts out nice Friday morning across our southeastern zones, it probably won't end very nice behind that cold front. Fire weather is again a concern. Please see the fire weather section below. Monday and Tuesday... The cold will be short lived and we should quickly see a warmer weather pattern return ahead of a developing western United States Trough. That trough could bring us some mid week rain. We'll have to see as it's still a long ways off. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 610 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Although a low-end VFR ceiling (mainly at-or-above 3,500 ft. AGL) is likely at times through especially these first 6-8 hours, and at least a brief/fleeting MVFR ceiling and/or visibility is at least possible (any visibility reduction from rain showers), the vast majority of the period carries high- confidence VFR (in fact mainly clear skies for this evening- overnight). Precipitation-wise, a few passing showers/thunderstorms are possible at almost any point through early evening (through around 00Z), but have focused the MOST FAVORED time frames into PROB30 groups currently aimed 14-20Z KEAR/15-21Z KGRI). Although unlikely, a stronger storm with hail up to around the size of quarters and/or gusty winds 40+KT cannot be totally ruled out. Finally regarding winds, although brief gusts to 20+KT are possible at times through mid-afternoon, sustained speeds through nearly the entire period should prevail at-or-below 12KT. There will be some directional changes...shifting from northerly to westerly today...then going somewhat variable this evening for a time before becoming steadier from the south overnight. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 447 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Although spotty pockets of beneficial rain occurred overnight and will continue into today across parts of our forecast area (CWA), the coverage of truly appreciable rain over the coming days continues to look pretty lackluster. As a result, and because spring green-up has yet to fully take hold, we continue to monitor for potentially critical fire weather conditions on some upcoming afternoons. - THURSDAY AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING: Following a brief respite from any truly heightened fire weather concerns today, outright-critical conditions return in earnest for Thursday for our entire forecast area (CWA). As a surface low pressure system deepens to our west, southerly winds will reach solidly-breeze levels...commonly sustained around 20 MPH and gusting at least 25-30 MPH. Meanwhile, as high temperatures again jump back up into the at least the mid-80s, relative humidity (RH) will plunge to 10-20 percent. As a result, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued from 12-10 PM Thursday for our entire forecast area...running a bit later than "usual" given that RH is expected to be slow-to-rise much above 20-30% until after dark. - FRIDAY AFTERNOON: While moderately strong north winds are a certainty as a cold front slices southward through our region (gusts at least 40 MPH likely at times), fortunately the temperature forecast continues to trend cooler with time...keeping RH from really "tanking". In fact, none of our CWA is currently projected to see RH drop below the 20% critical threshold. That being said, primarily our KS counties could see near-critical RH down to at least 25%, so it's still a day with some fire weather concerns. - SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Despite being by far the coolest day of the next week (high temps only in the 50s most places), very dry air will nonetheless drive afternoon RH down to at least 15-25%, while northwest winds gusts at least 25-35 MPH. Thus, solidly near- critical to critical conditions are currently forecast area- wide...but overall-worst in our western half. - SUNDAY-MONDAY: Sunday currently looks like another "one day break" from critical fire weather concerns, thanks mainly to somewhat- lighter winds. However, another warm-up accompanied by gusty south winds makes Monday another early candidate for potentially widespread critical conditions. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087. KS...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for KSZ005>007-017>019. && $$ UPDATE...Pfannkuch DISCUSSION...Wesely AVIATION...Pfannkuch FIRE WEATHER...Pfannkuch  217 FXUS63 KTOP 151111 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 611 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe storm threat once again today mainly by late afternoon/evening along the cold front over east-central into portions of far northeast Kansas. Hail and wind will be the primary hazards with a low tornado threat. - A stronger storm system set to arrive by Friday afternoon which may bring a larger severe threat to the area especially by afternoon into the evening hours. All hazards may be in focus. - Saturday and Sunday morning could see frost and freeze hazards mainly across areas north of I-70. - Some north-central Kansas counties may see elevated fire danger conditions set up during Saturday afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 306 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Early this morning, showers and storms remain mainly northeast of the area and also south of the area ahead of the main western trough in place with axis from the northern Plains into the Baja region. A cold front is roughly along the KS/NE border from southeast NE extending into west central Kansas which is quasi-stationary at the moment. The dryline has retreated back to southwestern KS and western OK. A deep moist Gulf airmass remains in place this morning across the area with dewpoints in the 60s. A LLJ is overhead which is helping keep WAA in place aloft for nocturnal storms to remain in place across the aforementioned areas. The associated isentropic ascent should allow a few of the southern showers and embedded non- severe storms to work into central and east-central Kansas areas over the next several hours. Expect these to generally weaken into the mid-morning hours then gradual clearing should take place through the day. This sets the stage for potential severe storms later this afternoon mainly along the cold front as it is pushed west to east across the area. The upper trough remains mostly positive to neutrally tilted as it advances east. Overall, the phased upper system is expected to undergo a decoupling of sorts as the southern flank deamplifies and the northern portion lifts east/northeast. This will help push the front through the area. As the cap weakens due to the forcing aloft combined with surface heating after clouds clear into the afternoon then expect storms along the cold front. Shear vectors appear to be somewhat parallel to the upper flow as the trough remains mainly positively tilted. This should allow for any initially discrete updrafts to interact with other updrafts fairly quickly and lead storms to more naturally want to congeal. Could see early storms posses a very large hail threat with the unstable and highly sheared environment. Then if a bowing structure can develop wind would be favored but also can't rule out a tornado threat especially if this occurs. The big uncertainty appears to be when clouds clear and how strong the remaining cap is near anticipated initiation by late afternoon. Also, if the cold front begins to move faster then that could focus the better storm threat even east and southeast of the area. This will have to be tracked through the day today. Right now, Friday looks to have a larger severe threat potential as an intense Pacific trough digs into the central Plains. Deep Gulf moisture easily returns to the area with return flow ahead of the forcing that moves into the are by Friday morning into the afternoon. The forcing could be at a magnitude that causes any cap to quickly erode without requiring much heating into the afternoon. This could either be strong enough to cause more showers to develop earlier than anticipated or it could help foster the rapid development of supercells if no showers develop ahead of the system. Shear again looks mainly parallel to the flow so interactions would be likely again. Could see the initial storms become a very large hail threat again then transition to a wind and tornado threat. Any training would probably lead to flooding with several areas seeing high rainfall amounts already the past several days not considering what occurs this afternoon for rainfall amounts. Colder and drier weather not to be ignored into Saturday and Sunday morning may give rise to concerns for frost/freeze conditions mainly north of I-70. Saturday could also see dry and windy conditions into the afternoon over north central areas leading to elevated fire danger conditions. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 608 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Satellite and forecast sounding trends hint at a brief period of MVFR CIGS at the Topeka airports for the first few hours of this TAF period. VFR is expected for the rest of the day with gusty south-southwest winds continuing. Winds will shift more westerly as a cold front approaches, and will subside after sunset. A few storms could form near Topeka along the cold front this afternoon, but chances are higher east of terminals. Therefore, have not included TS with this update. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Drake AVIATION...Teefey  105 FXUS63 KJKL 151112 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 712 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures will average 15 or more degrees above normal through the end of the week. Record or near record high temperatures are forecast today, Friday, and Saturday. - Showers/storms are possible Thursday and Thursday night with a passing disturbance, with potentially greater chances this weekend with a cold front. - Much cooler weather is expected Sunday into early next week, with the potential for patchy frost in the coldest locations Monday morning. && .UPDATE... Issued at 710 AM EDT WED APR 15 2026 A minor update has been sent out to update hourly temperatures in the very near term, and to update Sky grids through this afternoon based on latest model guidance. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday Night) Issued at 446 AM EDT WED APR 15 2026 Shortwave ridging this morning will give way to increasing southwest flow ahead of a mid-level disturbance that will cross the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley Thursday into Thursday night, bringing with it increased chances for showers and thunderstorms, and more importantly, badly needed rainfall. Increased fire danger is expected today, especially across southeastern Kentucky, from a combination of unseasonably warm (to hot) conditions, low humidity (generally in the 20 to 30 percent range), southwest breezes (gusts 15 to 20 mph), and dry fuels from the ongoing lack of sufficient wetting rains. Dry conditions continue into tonight, at least on ridgetops and upper slopes, but fortunately moderating conditions are expected to arrive from the west Thursday as a pair of passing disturbances brings showers and thunderstorms to the area. The first disturbance is a northern stream disturbance moving from the Central Plains through the northern Ohio River Valley and will be responsible for rain chances during the late morning through afternoon period, with a southern stream disturbance moving from Texas to the Mid-Atlantic providing a second round of showers and storms for the late afternoon through overnight period. At this time, it appears the better moisture and instability will accompany the second wave in the afternoon, with a marginal severe threat conditional on sufficient destabilization after the passage of the first disturbance and associated shower and cloud activity. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 446 AM EDT WED APR 15 2026 As showers taper off heading into Friday morning, temperatures cool into the low to mid 50s in valleys, and low 60s along ridge tops. A ridge of high pressure briefly builds over the area Friday ahead of a deepening trough over the Rockies and Northern Plains. Relatively quiet weather is expected, with a mix of sun and clouds, and temperatures warming into the 80s. Because of the approaching system, clouds begin to increase overnight and through Saturday. Low temperatures Friday night cool into the 50s and low 60s. Saturday, the upper level trough will be over the Upper Great Lakes, with a warm front extending through the Great Lakes into the Mid- Atlantic, while a trailing cold front will extend through the Upper MidWest, the Mid and Lower Mississippi valleys, with showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of it. Shower and storm chances will increase over Eastern Kentucky from northwest to southeast through the afternoon into the evening and overnight hours. Showers and storms are then expected to taper off from northwest to southeast through Sunday. Temperatures Saturday, ahead of the cold front, will warm into mid to upper 80s for most, under southwesterly winds. At night, with winds becoming west to northwesterly, cold air advecting in behind the cold front will cool temperatures into the mid to upper 40s. Sunday, as remaining showers taper off, the cold front is modeled southeast of the area. Temperatures will be much cooler across the area, some 20 to 25 degrees cooler in fact, ranging in the low to mid 60s. Clouds should diminish through the afternoon as the trough begins to depart the area. However, Eastern Kentucky looks to be on the backside of the trough heading into Sunday night. With cold air still advecting in under light northwesterly winds and clearing skies, temperatures are expected to drop into the mid to upper 30s in the valleys and lower 40s elsewhere, which may lead to patchy frost in the coldest locations. Height rises look to occur Monday, leading to mostly sunny skies, and highs in the low to mid 60s. Monday night, temperatures cool into the upper 30s to near 40 degrees. Tuesday, a shortwave looks to skirt through the Upper Great Lakes and its main effects should remain north of the area. Conditions will feature a mix of sun and clouds under southerly winds and seasonable temperatures warming into the low 70s. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) ISSUED AT 712 AM EDT WED APR 15 2026 VFR conditions prevailed at the 12z TAF issuance and should hold through the period. The region will remain in the warm sector between a sfc ridge of high pressure extending from the Southeast to the western Atlantic, and a frontal zone from New England across the Great Lakes and into the Plains. South to southwest winds will increase this morning into the 5 to 12 kts range, peaking in the afternoon before diminishing toward sunset. Occasional gusts to around 20 kts are also expected. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...CMC SHORT TERM...CMC LONG TERM...GINNICK/CMC AVIATION...CMC  270 FXUS63 KUNR 151112 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 512 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions Wednesday and Thursday; a Fire Weather Watch is in effect Thursday. - Cooler with rain/snow behind cold front late Thursday through Friday. - Trending warmer Saturday through early next week. && .DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Tuesday) Issued at 1256 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Active southwesterly flow continues across the central US. Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough pushing through the Northern Plains and an upper low ejecting out of the Central Rockies along with an active southern stream as moisture streams into the Southern Plains. Surface low pressure is centered over southeastern NE with a weak gradient over the forecast area. Light showers/sprinkles continue across southwestern SD into south- central SD, although a dry boundary layer and lack of appreciable mid-level moisture will limit precipitation amounts. Showers will taper off this afternoon and early evening as subsidence overspreads the region. Warmer and dry tomorrow with temperatures in the upper 60s to upper 70s across the plains. Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions are expected with RH falling into the teens to low 20s, particularly portions of NE WY and SW SD, although there is some uncertainty regarding boundary layer winds/if frequent gusts > 25 mph will develop. Even warmer (along and south of I90 in SD) and drier Thursday ahead of a cold front with critical conditions possible; a Fire Weather Watch is in effect from the Weston County plains through southern SD. Cold front arrives Thursday evening bringing cooler air and potential for rain and snow. Upper trough will eject out of the Central Rockies, although recent guidance shows split flow developing. Pacific moisture advects into the region ahead of this trough, although appreciable moisture is lacking (precipitable water values ~100-125% of normal). Best chance of measurable precipitation across NE WY and the northern Black Hills (NBM prob QPF >0.25" ~30-55%). Warm air advection returns Saturday with temperatures trending warmer through the weekend into early next week with elevated fire weather conditions expected. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Thursday Morning) Issued At 508 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued At 509 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Elevated fire weather conditions expected today across much of the area as RH falls into the teens to low 20s. Best overlap of low RH and stronger winds forecast across southern Campbell and Weston Counties in WY through southwestern SD. Conditions should remain below thresholds for any fire weather highlights today. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect Thursday for the Weston County plains through southern SD as stronger southwest winds will develop ahead of a cold front. Daytime minimum RH will fall as low as 12-14 percent Thursday. Mid-level clouds ahead of the front and spotty high-based showers may complicate things Thursday by keeping temperatures a bit cooler and RH higher. However, plan for at least elevated to near-critical conditions Thursday. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for SDZ321-322-325-326-332>335. WY...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for WYZ317. && $$ AVIATION...15 FIRE WEATHER...15  736 FXUS64 KMAF 151112 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 612 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 605 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Very low (10-15%) chance of an isolated storm or two for the far eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos late this afternoon and early evening. Should a storm develop, large hail and damaging winds remain the primary threats. - Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected across southeast New Mexico, the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains, and portions of far west Texas through Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday afternoon) Issued at 152 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Current satellite imagery and latest 500mb RAP analysis shows an upper-level trough extending across the Rockies into the Desert Southwest. Strong southwesterly flow aloft persists over the region into this afternoon. As the trough moves further to the east, so does the dryline. This will keep most storm development east of the forecast area. Low (10-15%) storm chances still exist late this afternoon into the early evening across the far eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. Modest lapse rates, deep layer shear, and sufficient instability allows for the potential of a strong storm, should one develop. If one does develop, it will quickly move east away from the aforementioned areas. Breezy winds and very dry conditions prompt near-critical fire weather conditions across portions of southeast New Mexico, eastern Culberson County Plains, and the Guadalupe Mountains this afternoon. Other than that, high temperatures range from the upper 70s and 80s for most locations. Tonight, the aforementioned trough moves into the Upper Midwest creating quasi-zonal flow aloft. Subtle upper-level begins to take shape over the region by Thursday morning which is going to supply warmer temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s for most. Surface lee troughing develops once again over the region bringing breezy southwesterly winds. This again provides elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions across similar locations previously mentioned. Another upper-level storm system looks to impact the region by Friday heading into the weekend. See the long-term discussion for more details! Lamberson && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 152 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 An upper-level trough moves across the Central Rockies and into the Central Great Plains. Meanwhile, the dryline moves back west near the Texas/New Mexico border and extends south towards the Big Bend. In addition to these features surface troughing brings breezy conditions across much of the area (higher winds in the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains under the mid-level jet). Strong southwesterly downslope flow helps filter in drier air behind the dryline, increasing fire weather concerns (see Fire Weather Discussion for more details). Friday night into Saturday morning, a cold front sweeps through the area resulting in low (10-30%) chances of rain and cooler temperatures. Afternoon highs drop into the 70s for most on Saturday, with even cooler temperatures on Sunday due to increased cloud cover and easterly upslope flow well behind the front. In addition to the upslope flow, shortwave troughs embedded in southwest flow aloft brings additional chances (10-40%) of rain for areas mainly south of I-20. Long-range guidance depicts the return of weak ridging by early next week, signaling warmer temperatures after this weekend. Greening && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 605 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 BR has developed across HOB, INK, and MAF this morning and looks to continue the next couple of hours. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the rest of the period. Winds increase and shift westerly by the late morning/early afternoon lasting through the early evening hours. Occasional gusts up to 25-30 kts may occur especially across southeast New Mexico terminals during the afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 152 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected the next few days, mainly over southeast New Mexico and into portions of west Texas. Critical MinRHs (generally below 10%) will combine with gusty winds and dry fuels. As such, a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement has been issued for portions of southeast New Mexico, the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains, and eastern Culberson County of west Texas from early this afternoon through the early evening. We are continuing to keep an eye on Friday as a deep upper-level trough enters the Great Plains. This is expected to bring stronger southwesterly winds which in turn keeps MinRHs in the single digits. Additionally, continued drying fuels raise RFTIs into the 6-8 range across much of southeast New Mexico and portions of northern Culberson County. This may result in critical to potentially extreme fire weather conditions on Friday for these areas. Should this forecast hold, a Red Flag Warning may be necessary. Friday night into Saturday, winds are forecast to shift northerly to northeasterly behind a cold front. As a result, cooler temperatures and thick cloud cover lowers fire weather concerns, though winds are expected to be breezy. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 87 56 89 64 / 0 0 10 20 Carlsbad 82 48 87 55 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 89 64 88 66 / 20 10 10 0 Fort Stockton 87 57 90 63 / 10 10 10 10 Guadalupe Pass 72 51 78 56 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 81 47 86 55 / 0 0 0 10 Marfa 77 46 83 50 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 85 57 88 64 / 0 0 0 20 Odessa 84 56 87 64 / 0 0 0 10 Wink 84 50 89 60 / 0 0 0 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....55 AVIATION...11  211 FXUS63 KDLH 151113 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 613 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Very warm temperatures (60s and 70s) away from Lake Superior today through Friday. Foggy and in the 30s and 40s closest to Lake Superior. - Rain and thunderstorms on Friday with isolated severe storms possible along I-35 and east into NW WI. - Colder late Friday and into Saturday, with rain changing to snow possible. Any snow accumulation would be light. The chance for travel impacts is low. && .UPDATE... Issued at 304 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Widespread dense fog continues this morning across much of the Northland. Most guidance is in good agreement that this fog should burn off through the morning, so we have our Dense Fog Advisory expiring at 15z. Another round of fog is possible tonight for Lake Superior, the MN Arrowhead, and NW WI. Today through Friday, we'll see prolific WAA shoot high temperatures well above normal into the 50s, 60s, and even low to mid 70s tomorrow. This will be for most of the area away from Lake Superior. Over the lake, that warm air mass should help encourage a lake breeze circulation keeping coastline areas much cooler. Have blended in some high-res guidance to adjust coastal temperatures down for today through Friday. Those very close to Lake Superior (within a couple miles) will likely struggle to get out of the high 30s to low 40s and may see more persistent fog. A low pressure system across the High Plains will track eastward on Friday as a longwave trough amplifies over the central CONUS. That will bring surge of warm and moist air across the Upper Midwest, while drier moves on top of it. This will set the stage for thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening ahead of an approaching cold front. As of now, the most likely area for strong to isolated severe storms is along I-35 and east where the SPC has introduced a Day 3 Marginal risk. A few storms could be strong to severe owing to the favorable deep layer shear and 600 to 2000 J/kg of MUCAPE. The primary threat will probably be severe hail from elevated storms, but there is a wind threat given the unidirectional shear profile. See previous discussion for snow concerns through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1259 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Current Conditions/Today and Tonight: Early afternoon radar and and satellite imagery showed an area of showers with embedded thunderstorms across the arrowhead of Minnesota. These were located ahead of a compact little shortwave trough that was skirting along the MN/CA border. For the rest of the afternoon and evening, expect dry conditions as this system exits to the east. Meanwhile, wind remain fairly light under the influence of a baggy pressure gradient, and that will set the stage for another night of low clouds and fog. Wednesday/Thursday: A couple of days of dry and warm weather are in store for the Northland on Wednesday and Thursday. Wednesday could start out cloudy and foggy, so temperatures depend on how quickly we can clear out. On Thursday, an area of low pressure will organize across the High Plains, and this will bring southerly winds across the region. Current humidity forecast is around 30 to 35 percent, so will have to watch the trends for fire weather concerns. Otherwise expect spring-like weather with highs in the 60s to near 70, except along Lake Superior. Friday/Monday: This low pressure system across the High Plains will track eastward on Friday as a longwave trough amplifies over the central CONUS. That will bring surge of warm and moist air across the Upper Midwest, while drier moves on top of it. This will set the stage for thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening ahead of an approaching cold front. As of now, the most likely area for storms is along I-35 and east. A few storms could be strong to severe owing to the favorable deep layer shear and 1000 to 2000 J/kg of instability. The primary threat will probably be severe hail, but there is a wind threat given the unidirectional shear profile. In the wake of this front, expect much cooler temperatures as northwest wind ushers a return arctic air. Meanwhile the overall storm system will become better organized, and an area of deformation precipitation will develop Friday night into Saturday. Thermal profiles support a rain-to-snow transition. Any snow accumulation should be less than an inch of slushy wet snow on grassy surfaces. One would expect lesser snow amounts if this falls during the day on Saturday given the April sun angle and warm pavement temperatures. Snow will end Saturday night, but the cool air will last through the weekend with highs in the lower 40s Sunday and lower 50s Monday. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 613 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Fog should burn off and ceiling should lift with conditions returning to VFR through this morning and midday. Another round of fog could be possible tonight, most likely for INL, DLH, HIB, and HYR. Expect mostly light and variable winds through today. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 304 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Today should be mostly calm out on the lake, with a light northeast breeze this afternoon as a weak lake breeze circulation starts up. Thursday, stronger northeast winds are expected, with some afternoon gusts up to 20knots at the head of the lake. This period will need to be monitored for a possible marginal Small Craft Advisory. Into Friday, northeast winds continue through the morning, and then become northwest through the afternoon. Gusts of 20-25knots are possible Friday and additional Small Craft Advisories may be needed. Areas of dense fog should burn off through this morning, but another round is expected overnight into Thursday. With very warm inland temperatures Thursday, fog could linger across Lake Superior through the day Thursday and into Friday. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 304 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Much above normal temperatures enter the Northland today through Friday. Expect highs in the 50s, 60s, and even low 70s (Thursday) away from Lake Superior. A stout lake breeze boundary is likely to set up around Lake Superior each afternoon. Thursday is expected to be a dry one with good low level mixing and high pressure to our north. Minimum RH could drop to 20-30% away from Lake Superior. Some stronger southerly winds are possible for the Brainerd Lakes, north- central MN and across to the I-35 corridor on Thursday as well, with sustained winds 10-15mph and gust of 20-30mph. Combined with high temps in the low 70s away from Lake Superior, Thursday may need to be considered for possible near-critical fire weather. Winds pick up into Friday and temperatures stay warm, but an incoming system should improve moisture. Thunderstorms, some possible severe, are expected Friday afternoon and evening. All hazards are possible in severe storms and some locally heavy rain is possible. On the back side of that system, some light snow may fall into Saturday. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 304 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Elevated streamflow continues across the Northland, especially along the North and South Shores. Across the Iron Range, Brainerd Lakes, I-35 corridor, and into NW WI (outside of the South Shore), rises have been fairly controlled and minor. On the North Shore, antecedent colder snowpack and a tempered return to warmer spring temperatures has meant the melt is still getting going. North Shore rivers are steadily increasing to what looks like a steady snowmelt level with some diurnal bumps forced by more rapid afternoon melt. The Beaver River near Beaver Bay is within action stage this morning, with water expected to be just coming out of banks at this stage with some possible wet spots along the Superior Hiking Trail. Other North Shore streams are following that lead with high flows expected for most waterways in Lake and Cook County through this week as daily temperatures above freezing keep the melt going. On the South Shore, rivers have started to turn over and are either holding steady or starting to come down. Flooding continues along the Montreal River on the WI/MI border. An overall downward trend in river stage but with an embedded diurnal bumps is expected as snowmelt is enhanced in the afternoon. While some passing showers are possible through the week, it's not until Friday-Saturday that a better chance for thunderstorms and widespread rain return to the area. This should allow for remaining snowmelt to keep working through area waterways. By the time Friday rolls around, it seems most plausible that the only significant snowpack remaining would probably be along the North Shore with some pockets of snow lingering in the higher terrain of Bayfield, Ashland, and Iron Counties. Flooding concerns could be two-fold on Friday: rain-on-snow along the North Shore adding onto persisting high flows, and pluvial flash flooding from thunderstorms in areas where conditions are already saturated (mostly NW WI). && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for MNZ010>012- 018>021-026-035>038. WI...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for WIZ001>004. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for LSZ140>148- 150. Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for LSZ142. && $$ UPDATE...Levens / MPX DISCUSSION...NLy / MPX AVIATION...Levens MARINE...Levens FIRE WEATHER...Levens HYDROLOGY...Levens  889 FXUS66 KMTR 151113 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 413 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1214 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Near normal temperatures continue today and Thursday before temperatures warm Friday into the weekend - Periods of gusty offshore winds, especially at higher elevations, Wednesday afternoon through early Friday morning - Increasing confidence for widespread beneficial rain beginning Sunday into the beginning of next week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1214 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 (Today and tonight) A weak fetch of onshore flow at the surface is struggling to maintain patches of low stratus along the SF Peninsula and the Salinas Valley late tonight. Progressive ridging aloft has resulted in very dry air in the mid/upper levels, that will persist into the early afternoon. A sharpening trough to our north will reach the North Bay tonight behind the exiting ridge, with a weak associated moisture gradient out ahead. However, increasing low and mid-level onshore flow will result in a moderate increase in cloud cover this afternoon. Breezy west winds out ahead of the dry surface boundary will eventually become northerly overnight as the upper trough pivots east and south. Temperatures today will be similar to yesterday, maybe a few degrees warmer inland where less cloud cover is expected. Temperatures tonight will still be on the cool side across the North Bay and higher elevations across the East Bay Hills with weak cool advection behind the dry surface boundary late tonight. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1214 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 (Thursday through Tuesday) Gusty offshore flow will gradually spread south across our area after sunrise Thursday. The strongest winds will be at higher elevations, especially in the North Bay and East Bay Hills, but not expected to exceed 40mph. Temperatures on Thursday will be similar to Wednesday, right around normal in the 60s to low 70s. Temperatures overnight Thursday into Friday will be chilly once again with cooler air aloft lingering behind the exiting trough and surface wind fields easing simultaneously under clear skies leading to efficient radiational cooling. Thursday night should be an excellent night for star gazing. Progressive, yet high amplitude ridging bumps temperatures up Friday and Saturday, before the next trough arrives from the Pacific Northwest on Sunday. Consensus diverged in deterministic guidance from this time last night, thus confidence in timing, location and intensity of rainfall is still low. However, it still looks most of our area will see at least some light rain Sunday through Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 413 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 There are a few areas of low clouds /VFR-MVFR/ including patchy mist/fog /IFR-LIFR/ this morning. Conditions improving to VFR today. Low clouds /MVFR/ increasing ahead of a cold front from the northwest tonight and early Thursday morning. Vicinity of SFO...VFR-MVFR. West wind increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon, continuing tonight and Thursday morning. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR-MVFR. West winds 5 to 15 knots. && .MARINE... (Today through Monday) Issued at 353 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Fresh northwest breezes and moderate seas will continue over the coastal waters through today. A mostly dry cold front will push through tonight followed by gusty northwesterly winds Thursday. These winds will build rough seas of 10-12 feet across the exposed coastal waters. Winds will ease back to moderate northwest breezes Friday through Saturday, allowing seas to gradually subside. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Thursday to 3 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM....JM AVIATION...Canepa MARINE...Canepa Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  399 FXUS63 KLBF 151114 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 614 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected across portions of southwest Nebraska through early Wednesday afternoon. Accumulations of 0.25-0.50" are locally possible. - Dry weather returns for Thursday, with a combination of warm, dry, and windy conditions expected. Critical fire weather concerns are possible, and a Fire Weather Watch is in effect for all of western and north central Nebraska. - Threat for light precipitation Friday/Friday night-mainly over western areas. - Additional fire weather concerns Saturday through Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 329 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Currently, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continue across portions of western and central Nebraska. This is within a zone of strong FGEN aloft, with a weak H85 low centered over south central Nebraska. As this low slowly pushes east through late this morning, scattered shower development is expected to persist across portions of southwest and central Nebraska. The threat for a few thunderstorms also looks to persist, as steep lapse rates aloft will support at least meager instability. This should support at least locally heavier rainfall rates, though as a whole any accumulations remain to 0.10-0.25" for areas generally south of HWY 2. Where thunderstorms do occur, as much as 0.25-0.50" would be possible locally. No severe weather is expected with this activity, as the meager instability looks to overlap weak deep layer shear. As the low slowly begins to push off to the east by this afternoon, a surface trough will quickly move from west to east across the area. This will quickly usher in much drier air, as the surface trough reaches to near the HWY 83 corridor by late afternoon. Any lingering precipitation should quickly end from west to east by mid- afternoon, and dry conditions are then expected to continue into tomorrow. The much drier airmass will lead to elevated to near- critical fire concerns this afternoon, though winds look to be the main limiting factor at this time. Still, highs today reach into the lower 70s again, and push relative humidity into the teens for areas west of HWY 83 this afternoon. Lows tonight fall into the lower 30s, as the warm advection regime persists overnight. A much more concerning day is then on tap for tomorrow, as temperatures warm even further into the lower 80s across the entire area. This is as warm advection aloft pushes H85 temperatures towards the 90th percentile climo, or to ~21-23C. Unfortunately, these warm highs will combine with the very dry airmass in place, and push relative humidity values to as low as 10 to 15 percent for all of western and north central Nebraska. As deep diurnal mixing is achieved, southerly gusts of 30 to 35 miles per hour can be expected as well. The combination of the warm, very dry, and gusty conditions look to lead to critical fire weather concerns, and see no reason to make any changes to the inherited Fire Weather Watch. By early Friday morning, a cold front will begin to push into northern Nebraska, and should largely clear the area by sunrise. This will lead to a sharp wind shift from south to north with its passage. Strengthening cold advection will also lead to ample mechanical mixing, and a period of 40 to 45 mile per hour northerly wind gusts can be expected with frontal passage as well. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 329 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A strong cold front is expected to clear the forecast area by 12z Friday. Much colder air will push in behind the front Friday with highs struggling to reach the mid 50s in far southeastern portions of the forecast area. Across the northeastern Panhandle, highs will be around 40 degrees. For most of the day Friday, dry and cool conditions are expected. For locations further west including the eastern panhandle and northwestern Sandhills, weak mid level warm air advection will lead to an increased threat for light precipitation in these areas. During the day, thermal profiles in the west and northwest, will support snow, especially Friday morning and Friday evening into Friday night. Ground temps do remain warm in these areas, especially after the 80+ degree readings expected Thursday. With the warm ground temps, little to no snow accumulations are expected with this activity. Additionally, QPF's will be light with this system. The NBM precipitation ensembles only indicate a 10 to 20% chance of QPF exceeding 0.10" Friday/Friday night. Even if ground temps were much colder, snow accums would generally be an inch or less across northwestern portions of the of the forecast area. Forcing for precipitation will weaken Saturday morning as the upper level trough crosses central into eastern Nebraska. However steep lapse rates are indicated in the latest GFS soln Saturday afternoon over the western half of the forecast area. Add in some surface heating, and wouldn't be surprised if we saw some isolated to widely scattered showers Saturday afternoon. The NBM initialized with some isolated pops Saturday afternoon, and this seems reasonable and will be retained with this forecast package. Cold high pressure will settle into the Dakotas and Nebraska Saturday night. Clear skies, light winds and dry air will allow lows to reach into the middle 20s by Sunday morning which is 5 to 10 degrees below normal for this time of year. High pressure will slide east of the forecast area Sunday morning shifting winds to the south Sunday afternoon. Ridging aloft will build into the Intermountain west and warmer boundary layer air will push into the forecast area Sunday afternoon. Highs Sunday will reach into the upper 60s to middle 70s. Afternoon RH will reach 10 to 20 percent along with southwesterly winds of 10 to 15 MPH, will lead to elevated fire weather conditions. Even warmer temperatures will build into the area Monday and Tuesday with highs reaching into the 80s. ATTM these forecast high temps are at the 25th%ile of the NBM and may end up going even higher with subsequent forecasts. Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions appear likely Monday and Tuesday with min RH of 10 to 20 percent Monday and 15 to 25 percent Tuesday. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 614 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 For the KLBF terminal: There will be a threat for light rain showers INVOF the terminal through 16z this morning. The greatest threat will be from 12z to 15z and will handle the mention with a tempo group. Ceilings this morning will range from 6000 to 9000 FT AGL. By late morning, ceilings will lift to around 20000 FT AGL before scattering out early this afternoon. For the KVTN terminal: Expect broken ceilings around 20000 FT AGL through late morning with mostly clear skies developing by early afternoon. Cloud coverage this afternoon will be a few clouds ranging from 10000 to 20000 FT AGL. Skies will then clear this evening. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for NEZ204-206-208>210-219. && $$ SHORT TERM...Brown LONG TERM...Buttler AVIATION...Buttler  074 FXUS65 KTFX 151116 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 516 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Aviation Section Updated. .KEY MESSAGES... - Windy conditions develop today in advance of a cold front, particularly over Southwestern Montana. - Widely scattered showers and even a rumble of thunder may accompany the front late this afternoon. - The cold front brings widespread snowfall to all elevations tonight into Thursday, though accumulating snow impacts will mostly be over and near areas of higher terrain. - Temperatures fall well below the seasonal average Thursday and Friday, with another round of scattered light snows on Friday. - A building upper level ridge of high pressure will bring a return to milder and dry conditions before unsettled conditions return next week. && .DISCUSSION... /Issued 1201 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026/ - Meteorological Overview: North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana will be on the western edge of an upper level ridge today, resulting in southerly flow aloft. This will bring slightly warmer temperatures to the area, as well as another day of windy conditions in Southwestern Montana. Instability will also increase, resulting in the potential for isolated locations to hear a rumble of thunder in the afternoon. The Rocky Mountain Front will see snowfall throughout the day, with heavier amounts in the higher elevations. As the ridge continues to move east, an upper level trough will begin to move in from the west coast, bringing an increase in atmospheric moisture. This evening into tonight a cold front will push down from the north, lowering temperatures. The cooler temperatures combined with increased moisture will bring snow showers along the I-90 Corridor late this afternoon into the early evening. North-central and Central Montana will begin to see rain showers in the evening, transitioning to more widespread snow during the overnight hours. Snowy/slushy roads will be most prevalent Thursday morning. Well-below seasonal average temperatures will be seen across North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana on Thursday, in thanks to the upper-level trough deepening over the Great Basin and the cold front. On Friday, North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana remain under the influence of the upper-level trough. This will cause temperatures to remain on the chillier side with lows in the teens and another round of snow showers Friday morning. As the trough moves to the east, an upper level ridge of high pressure to the west begins to build, allowing temperatures to warm in the afternoon and precipitation chances to decrease. The upper level ridge will move east over Montana on Saturday and Sunday and bring milder and drier weather across the region. Early next week the benign conditions continue until troughing brings increased shower activity by the middle of next week. - Dzomba - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: Gusty to strong winds over southwest MT today... A 30 to 50 kt H700 southwesterly jet will develop over southwest MT in advance of the approaching trough and cold front. Stronger end surface winds will be most pronounced over the narrow south to north oriented valleys and the exposed mountain peaks south of the I90 corridor. Criteria winds/gusts (40 mph/58 mph) look to be most widespread in the late afternoon and early evening hours when diurnal mixing, widely scattered convective showers, and the cold front itself will all promote at least a brief period of surface momentum transfer. Climatological anomaly indices continue to highlight this event with the ECMWF EFI sustained wind speed still generally ranging from 0.6 to 0.8 for the aforementioned locations, while gusts remain slightly higher at 0.7 to nearly 0.9. With this in mind the high wind watch for the Madison Valley and Beaverhead/W Madison lower elevations will be upgraded to a warning. The only change to the timing will be to extend it into the evening to cover the frontal passage and associated convection/momentum transfer. Widespread snow tonight into Thursday... Light snow will continue to increase today along the immediate eastern slopes of the Rocky Mountain Front as moisture increases H500 heights fall. Once the cold front clears the region this evening, the cold core aloft will be sufficient to support a period of widespread snow at all elevations tonight into Thursday. Impactful accumulations will generally be confined to areas over and near higher terrain, including the Rocky Mountain Front, the central island ranges, and the Madison/Gallatin mountains. Winter weather advisories were added to include most mountain areas. The winter storm watch continues for the Madison/Gallatin ranges and now runs through midnight Friday rather than the previous 6 am Friday morning expiration time. The cold north/northwesterly upslope flow over the Gallatin Valley is favorable for a at least a period of heavier snow, especially for the south and eastern portions of the valley. Given it's a weekday and the aforementioned portions of the valley currently have over 50% chance for 6 inches of snow, a winter storm watch was posted here. The most impactful period looks to occur late tonight through Thursday morning when precipitation will be heaviest and diurnal heating will be weakest. Impacts may include difficult travel due to slushy/snowy roads and reduced visibility, cold wet outback conditions, and even isolated power outages or tree damage. Snow begins to slowly diminish Thursday afternoon, but another shortwave looks to pass through and bring another round of light snow Thursday night into Friday. It's still uncertain on how widespread and impactful this will be, but the situation will continue to be monitored going forward. - RCG && .AVIATION... 15/12Z TAF Period A potent spring storm and series of cold front will move over/across the Northern Rockies over the next 18-36 hours, with the Pacific front ushering rain/snow showers from west to east across Southwest through North Central Montana from the late morning through afternoon hours on Wednesday. Following the passage of the Pacific front more steady precipitation will being to settle in for the remainder of the evening hours, especially across Southwest Montana, with a cold front pushing south of the Canadian border between 03-06z Thursday. Low-VFR/VFR conditions will fall to low-VFR across most terminals beyond 15-21z Wednesday, with the exception of the KWYS terminal where LIFR/IFR/MVFR conditions are expected over this timeframe. Southerly winds will be strong and gusty at the KEKS terminal between 15/15z and 16/03z, especially beneath shower activity. - Moldan && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 59 26 37 22 / 40 70 50 20 CTB 53 19 34 17 / 20 70 50 10 HLN 58 28 40 25 / 70 90 80 30 BZN 59 25 39 19 / 60 90 80 40 WYS 45 26 35 12 / 90 90 100 70 DLN 57 25 38 19 / 50 90 70 20 HVR 62 24 35 17 / 30 90 40 10 LWT 58 26 36 18 / 50 100 60 20 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT Thursday for East Glacier Park Region. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon MDT Thursday for Big Belt, Bridger and Castle Mountains-Little Belt and Highwood Mountains-Southern Rocky Mountain Front. Winter Storm Watch from this evening through Thursday evening for Gallatin and Madison County Mountains and Centennial Mountains. High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening for Beaverhead and Western Madison below 6000ft-Madison River Valley. Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Thursday afternoon for Gallatin Valley. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM MDT Thursday for Northwest Beaverhead County. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls  709 FXUS63 KMQT 151116 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 716 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread fog, dense at times, leads to reduced visibility through the morning commute. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for the entire UP this morning. - The threat for flooding continues through the week due to snowmelt and potential showers and thunderstorms. A Flood Watch is in effect for the entire UP, ending this morning over the far west then Thursday night elsewhere. - Showers and storms may reach the central and eastern UP tonight into Thursday morning, with light totals below a quarter inch. - Showers and Thunderstorms are expected with a cold front Friday night into Saturday early morning. Widespread totals up to half an inch are becoming likely, but higher amounts are possible with a 10- 20% chance for totals in excess of an inch. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 255 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Earl this morning, a warm front remains draped across southern WI eastward through the central LP. Forcing along it has lead to more active weather across WI and the LP, but we remain well north of the excitement, up here on the cool side of the boundary. With plenty of low-level moisture courtesy of our melting snowpack and a sharp inversion, widespread fog is developing across the UP. This is dense at times, with several ASOS sites throughout the area reporting visibility well below a mile. Model soundings show limited chance of this mixing out even through sunrise, so the Dense Fog Advisory has been extended a couple of hours until 14Z. Heading into the daytime hours, once our fog mixes out, we should see some breaks of sunshine across the western UP Much like today temperatures will vary greatly across the U.P, with low 40s in the far north to the low 60s south, closer in proximity to the warm front. This, in combination with dewpoints in the 40s, will lead to increased snowmelt which in turn continues to pose a threat for flooding o rivers, small streams, creeks, and low-lying areas. Flood headlines remain intact. Another shortwave looks to ride along the boundary this evening into tonight, and though guidance increasingly limits PoPs to our south, with more of a glancing blow to the UP, some showers and storms still will not be ruled out across our area. This should leave us with rain totals of less than a quarter of an inch, with any isolated storms dropping higher amounts. A warmer stretch is expected for Thursday into Friday as a deep trough moves into the western U.S. Easterly winds will develop on Thursday, becoming southerly by Friday. This will bring the potential for some of the warmest temperatures thus far this spring, reaching into the 70s over the west (90% chance for temperatures over 70). The strengthening southerly winds, warm temperatures and higher dew points will accelerate the melting of the snowpack further with continued flooding concerns. More uncertainly exists for the weekend as the low pressure moves east along or north of Lake Superior. Slower solutions keep warmer air in the U.P. well into Saturday while faster solutions would bring a front through and much cooler temperatures by Saturday morning. Another round of rain and thunderstorms is likely to accompany the front. Behind the front it will be much cooler with snow showers possible Saturday night into Sunday. Some guidance still suggests a wet snowfall for the western U.P. NBM probabilities for 2" or more of wet snow in the west are around 20-40% Saturday night into Sunday. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 715 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Widespread LIFR/VLIFR fog is noted on area webcams and ASOS stations across the entire northern Great Lakes region under anomalous moisture and calm winds. As has been the case the previous night, thinking fog will slowly lift through the late morning into the early afternoon, first at IWD with CMX and SAW catching up. Light N to NW winds may cause upslope fog and low cigs to linger longer at CMX/SAW. MVFR/VFR cigs and vis expected through the afternoon with light winds once fog lifts. Widespread fog is once again anticipated tonight. && .MARINE... Issued at 255 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Light, stable flow is expected through Thursday with a weak pressure gradient over the area. Dense fog remains over much of the lake through this moring, slowly mixing out during the afternoon before expanding again tonight. Southerly winds will develop and increase on Friday ahead of a deepening low pressure, 30% chance for gales over the eastern lake. This low will push through over the weekend bringing a cold front and the potential for northwesterly gales (around 50% chance Saturday night into Sunday). && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 255 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 NOHRSC analysis showed the the snowpack had eroded over much of the southern and far western U.P. Over the north and east several inches to over a foot of SWE remained, greatest in the higher terrain. Snowmelt will continue through the week and accelerate late in the week as a warm, moist airmass moves into the U.P. Additional rain chances continue, with a slight chance for showers/storms tonight and higher confidence in another wave of rain Friday night. Rainfall tonight will likely be less than a quarter inch but heavier rainfall is possible for Friday night. NBM has a 10-20% chance for an inch of more of rainfall Friday night. Colder weather is expected for Saturday night and Sunday which should slow the melt of any remaining snow. Flooding in the wake of snowmelt and multiple heavy rain events continued over the south-central U.P. Tuesday. Though the snowpack is mostly gone in the south-central; swamps, creeks, low lying areas and rivers remain full/high and additional showers and thunderstorms are possible tonight. This could exacerbate the ongoing flooding though widespread heavy rainfall is not expected. For the north and east snowmelt and potential rainfall will continue the flooding threat though the week with the analysis and observations showing over a foot of SWE in the higher terrain. Rivers in the far western U.P. were beginning to fall and anticipate that the Flood Watch will be able to expire this morning. The Flood Watch remains in effect for all but the far western U.P. until Thursday night. This may need to be extended further in time with future updates as even warmer temperatures and higher dew points, along with increasing winds are expected for Thursday and Friday. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Flood Watch through late Thursday night for MIZ001-003>007- 010>014-084-085. Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ this morning for MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085. Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ this morning for MIZ002- 009. Lake Superior... Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning for LSZ162-240>251-263>267. Lake Michigan... Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for LMZ221-248- 250. && $$ DISCUSSION...LC/NL AVIATION...BW MARINE...LC/NL HYDROLOGY...  046 FXUS64 KEWX 151117 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 617 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated strong to severe storms possible west of the I-35 Corridor overnight. - Chance for isolated storms Wednesday mainly north of Highway 90; a near widespread chance of rain and storms Saturday from a cold front. - Warm and humid conditions through Friday, then cooler than normal this weekend into Monday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 1239 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A rude beginning to the overnight forecast package came with severe storms that slightly overachieved their timing and a very untimely KDFX radar crash with a severe storm bearing down on top of Del Rio. The steady but unstable SW flow aloft will continue to supply dynamics and Pacific moisture to keep this activity going through at least 2 AM, but most of the HREF solutions diminish this activity between 2 and 5 AM. Long lived elevated showers left behind dissipated storms are a good sign that PWat values are quite elevated, and the HRRR confirms this with up to 1.75 at around DRT in one of the more recent runs. With the near midnight observation of heavy lightning and storms that are starting to train a bit, we could see some flash flooding take place before we able to get the storm trends in the right direction. With the slight over achievement of convection and another round expected to light up over the Hill Country for Wednesday, we may need to review the rain chances for the daytime and possibly expand higher chances farther south than what is out there currently. But for now we'll stick to the blends and hope the consensus is correct on the lower coverages. With the type of storms we are getting and the amount of training occurring, localized flooding is a possibility, and not having a radar to cover the western areas that already got some heavy rain could be a bit nerve-racking. Later in the evening, the cap is assumed to have strengthened as coverage wains somewhat early in the nigh as compared to what we're seeing tonight. This is also shown in the high temperature forecast for Thursday that is expected to perk up about 5 degrees over what's expected for Wednesday. No rain is currently forecast for Thursday but there are expected to be some dry-line storms just northwest of our CWA Thursday evening. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1239 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Friday, persistence weather is expected as the weak ridging pattern over the area is similar to that of Thursday. Breezy, warm and humid conditions will give way to another day of highs in the 80s to mid 90s. Friday night, the pattern destabilizes from another low latitude upper trough into the SW CONUS, setting up more unstable SW flow aloft over TX. Initially the storms will stick to the western counties as they have been tonight, but a cold front arriving Saturday will bring what could be a widespread rain event with most of the falling rain overrunning behind the front. The leading edge storms could be strong as one might expect in April, but we think most of the post frontal activity should be better behaved as the frontal layer to arrive is apparently going to be quite a bit deeper than our more recent fronts. Plus the cold front is set to arrive fairly early in the day. Besides having the strong front cooling us off for a late spring treat, we also should benefit from a favorable pattern of continued overrunning which might help us on the rain deficit problem. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 610 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Looks like KAUS stays VFR for the most part throughout the day. Can't rule out MVFR cigs for an hour or two this morning but confidence is low. As far as KSAT, KSSF and KDRT, these sites are forecast to stay MVFR through late this morning before lifting to VFR. MVFR to IFR conditions return late this evening and remain through Thursday morning. Have added a PROB30 group for KDRT for this evening as storms are forecast to move over the terminal. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 85 69 89 69 / 40 30 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 86 68 90 69 / 30 30 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 85 67 89 69 / 30 20 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 81 66 85 67 / 50 30 10 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 85 69 90 70 / 20 10 10 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 83 67 87 68 / 40 40 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 83 65 89 66 / 40 10 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 85 67 89 69 / 30 30 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 86 69 89 69 / 10 10 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 85 69 89 70 / 30 20 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 86 70 90 70 / 20 10 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...18 LONG TERM....18 AVIATION...17  673 FXUS61 KBTV 151117 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 717 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 338 AM EDT Wednesday... Confidence in potentially severe weather has increased across portions of southern Vermont for Thursday. Fog is also likely tonight as a boundary remains over the region. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 338 AM EDT Wednesday... 1. Light showers and isolated rumbles of thunder expected today trending towards more drizzle and fog by tonight with a boundary remaining draped over the region. 2. Additional rounds of showers with heightened thunderstorm chances expected Thursday into Friday across southern Vermont as a stronger frontal system rides along our quasi stationary boundary. 3. Another storm system is expected to bring rainy and windy weather to the region Saturday evening through Sunday, with showers potentially switching over to snow on Monday as cold air briefly returns. && .DISCUSSION... As of 338 AM EDT Wednesday... KEY MESSAGE 1: Widespread low clouds and patchy fog remain across most of the region with pooling moisture along a quasi stationary boundary draped across our region. Any fog is expected to lift with sunrise as light southerly flow nudges the boundary slightly north for this afternoon. Satellite shows widespread convection associated with merging MCSs in the Upper Midwest to the eastern Great Lakes, as thunderstorms continue to move east along a quasi stationary boundary draped across the Great Lakes into the Northeast. Our shortwave today is currently positioned across the lower Michigan peninsula with an MCS moving east into Lake Erie. CAMs show this area of convection weakening as it approaches the St. Lawrence Valley this morning. What remains of the MCS as it enters our region will likely just be some light to moderate showers with an isolated rumble of thunder, mainly in the St. Lawrence Valley this morning, with shower activity diminishing as it moves east and becomes cutoff by its cold pool. Cooler air from this cold pool near the International Border will keep the northern areas of the region cooler today with highs in the low to mid 50s, where locations south like Springfield and Rutland, Vermont may warm into the 70s. Unlike yesterday, there is better confidence in cloud cover and convective inhibition lingering through most of the day from this approaching MCS. The cold pool should remain over the region today limiting the potential for severe weather or any widespread thunderstorms. However, south of the boundary into Rutland/Windsor Counties, any clearing today may allow for some isolated thunderstorm development, though these storms should remain sub severe and weak, with better instability south of our region. Light showers will continue into this evening with weak forcing, with perhaps some mid level drying from upper level divergence associated with an approaching low level jet for Thursday. This drying will be associated with a strong inversion tonight which will likely lead to widespread drizzle and some patchy fog as temperatures cool, but surface moisture remains ample. Lows tonight will be similar to last night with values in the mid 40s to mid 50s. KEY MESSAGE 2: A shortwave currently over the Central Plains will track across the Great Lakes into our region Thursday with increasing showers and embedded thunderstorms. This area of energy will ride along our nearly stationary boundary that will remain parked over the region through the end of the week. The latest SPC day2 outlook shows a Slight Risk (2 out of 5) for western Rutland County in Vermont, and southern Essex County in NY, with a Marginal Risk (1 out of 5) for portions of the northern Adirondacks and central and southern Vermont on Thursday. The main threat with any thunderstorms Thursday look to be damaging wind gusts and some isolated large hail. As with the recent days, there is little change in the overall synoptic pattern with a strong ridge across the southeast leading to several rounds of showers and thunderstorms into the weekend. A shortwave on Thursday will likely be preceded by a decaying MCS as has been the theme the last few days. Convective blowoff through the day will help to keep instability at bay for the better part of Thursday before some clearing can work in for the afternoon/evening. A weak sfc low will track northeast along the St. Lawrence Valley with a lifting warm front during Thursday morning. It will be difficult to determine how much cloud cover remains into the afternoon as to how much instability can develop. The HRRR and HREF appear to be the most aggressive across southern Vermont with the HREF denoting 50-70% chance for > 500 J/kg of sfc CAPE, and 30-40% for > 1000 J/kg, which for mid April is pretty good. Additionally, the low level jet associated with the sfc low will be better located with the highest CAPE as compared to Tuesday with a colocated maximum of 0 to 6 km shear up to 50 kts, which would support thunderstorm activity. The NAM3 is more muddy with broken cells and stratiform mixed in which would limit any discrete cell potential, which does exist in the HRRR 00Z run. Given the presence of the boundary, the best chances for any severe weather would be across Rutland/Windsor counties with temperatures potentially into the mid 70s. Areas north of the boundary could remain in the low to mid 60s depending on the precipitation shield and cloud cover, which will be hard to determine as the boundary fluctuates. Pwat values will be near 1 to 1.3" which would support some localized heavy downpours, and combined with elevation snowmelt, some sharp rises on central/northern waterways are likely through Friday. However, no flooding is expected, but high flows will need to be watched depending on any repeated thunderstorm activity. The main threat with any storms would be damaging winds and isolated large hail, though, some rotating storms cannot be ruled out with curved hodographs and > 250 m2/s2 0 to 3 SRH values in southern Vermont. A similar pattern setup on Friday will lead to additional shower and thunderstorm chances. A sfc low will track across the region, with some better forcing underneath the center of the low across the Adirondacks and central and southern Vermont. Thunderstorm chances will be maximized in the late morning and early afternoon with surface instability likely from another decaying MCS. However, the instability will be competing with a drying mid to upper level as a nose of high pressure will try to work in for Friday afternoon. There is still some timing differences between global models which will play a role in where any thunderstorm activity will setup. CAMs will be in range in the next forecast package to provide some better guidance. KEY MESSAGE 3: Surface low pressure is expected to cross Ontario into Quebec on Saturday, with an upper level trough trailing slightly behind it. Southerly winds will increase as gradients tighten over northern New York and Vermont and as a strong low level jet streak approaches the area from the west. This southerly flow will advect in plenty of warmth by Saturday afternoon with highs reaching into the upper 60s and lower 70s, which is 10-15 degrees above seasonal normals for this time of year. The south/southwest orientation of the low level jet will favor gusty winds over the St. Lawrence Valley, off the northern slopes of the Adirondacks, and channeled up the northern Champlain Valley, where gusts in the range of 20 to 30+ knots are possible late Saturday afternoon and into the overnight. Precipitation chances will also increase late Saturday afternoon and evening, with widespread soaking rainfall likely lingering into Sunday afternoon and evening as well. An associated cold frontal boundary is forecast to cross the forecast area early enough Sunday morning to limit destabilization and thunderstorm potential. Model blend precipitation projections continue indicate we could get around a quarter of an inch of precip in 24 hours, but not likely much more than that. Colder air rushing in behind the front Sunday will make it tough for most spots to reach above the 50 during the afternoon before falling into the 20s and lower 30s Sunday night. Due to this dramatic temperature drop towards freezing, there is the potential for lingering rain showers to change over to snow showers Sunday night, starting first on mountaintops and lowering in elevation from there. By the time the cold air reaches the wider valley floors early Monday morning, probability of precipitation will be only about 20-40%. Highs Monday will likely only reach the mid 30s to lower 40s. High pressure takes over early next week to recover temperatures slightly, then model consensus dwindles beyond that. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 12Z Thursday...Widespread low clouds (cigs 200-1400 feet above ground level) and patchy fog (visibilities 1/4 to 6 miles) remain across most of the region with pooling moisture along a stationary frontal boundary draped across our region. Fog and low clouds are expected to lift following sunrise as light southerly flow nudges the boundary slightly north for this afternoon. Widespread MVFR or VFR conditions are anticipated by around 15Z-16Z Wednesday. Light showers and isolated rumbles of thunder are expected today trending towards more drizzle and fog by tonight with a boundary remaining draped over the region. Most likely time period of showers will be 15Z through 21Z Wednesday. Visibilities may briefly lower to below 4 miles in these showers/storms, but confidence is not high on the exact timing and location of this lower vis today. By 00Z-06Z (MSS a little earlier) Thursday, we should see a return to widespread IFR ceilings and potentially IFR visibilities tonight, similar to what was observed last night as mist and drizzle get trapped under an atmospheric inversion. Surface winds over the next 24 hours will be light and highly variable, with some southwesterly to southerly component this afternoon. MSS could have an overall northeasterly flow instead, at times 10-15 knots this afternoon. Some LLWS is also expected over the Adirondacks as southwest to west winds at 2000 feet increase around 15Z Wednesday through 02Z Thursday at SLK. Outlook... Thursday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Thursday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Danzig DISCUSSION...Danzig/Storm AVIATION...Storm  742 FXUS63 KAPX 151118 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 718 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Heavy rain and storm concerns continue today/tonight into Thursday... - Breezy with additional rain/storm concerns Saturday... - Snow possible Sunday... && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 511 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .DISCUSSION... PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: Westerly flow across the PacNW...with a SW-NE oriented longwave trough axis stretching from Baja California into the northern Plains (a couple embedded PV maxima over CO...central SD...and just north of Lake Superior). Ridge axis prevails across the southeastern US...with zonal flow across eastern Canada. Continued plume of anomalous moisture stretching from TX through the MS Valley into the Upper Great Lakes, where pwats exceed 1in. Flow is a bit split across the central US, with a boundary stretching from the Desert SW to the OH Valley/Upper Great Lakes and attendant southwesterly low- level flow...and a northern stream system developing in southern Alberta/Saskatchewan, with warm advection into Manitoba. Cold air (subzero at 850mb) currently across northern/central Canada, attendant to a stationary boundary stretching from British Columbia to Hudson Bay. Michigan stuck in the battlezone...with temps in the lower 40s across the EUP...and lower 60s across southern MI where convection continues; things have largely quieted down across northern MI as of 6z...save for a few showers developing along a subtle deformation area over the eastern UP. Nearly to completely saturated conditions at the surface in the wake of said convection, even up into the UP...and noting quite a bit of fog and low stratus upstream from us, into the Yoop/Tip of the Mitt. Bit of a pattern shift in the works for the latter half of the period...with signals for troughing trying (though not very successfully) to settle into the eastern half of the continent at times in the coming days...particularly late in the weekend into early next week. In the meantime... aforementioned shortwave troughing over the SW US looks to track northeastward into the Midwest late tonight into Thursday...bringing our next shot at showers and storms. Ridging to build immediately behind this for Thursday night into Friday...as southwesterly flow increases ahead of troughing digging into the western US/central Canada. This latter feature will track into the Midwest through the weekend, driving a strong surface low through the Midwest/eastern Canada Friday night into Saturday. Timing of the front is a bit unclear attm but signals point toward cold advection returning at some point on Saturday or Saturday night...cold enough that the "S" word may rear its head again...with breezy northwest/west flow picking up again into Sunday...before high pressure attempts to build in going into early next week...potentially followed by another shot at cold air for the end of the period and beyond. FORECAST DETAILS... Storms today/tonight...expecting the round of rain/storms currently across IA to lift northeastward into Lower MI this morning through mid afternoon. Think the atmosphere has been quite stabilized across northern Michigan after this evening's "fun"...and with stable but murky conditions across the Yoop and WI likely to seep eastward behind a subtle trough axis this morning...which could keep the bulk of the activity south of our area (which is just as well). However...if by some chance the boundary ends up stalling further north or lifts further north quicker than expected...may need to keep an eye on the Manistee River basin this morning, with a little bit of hi-res guidance suggesting it's not impossible there could be 0.25in or so of additional rainfall this morning there. Otherwise...think we will not be as able to achieve instability as we have the last couple days/nights...and may keep things a little tamer, at least for the daytime hours. This being said...if we do manage to break into any sun...low LCLs could become a problem again late, particularly as deep layer shear looks to ramp up again tonight as the LLJ strengthens again...and anticipate another round of stronger storms will remain possible for the latter half of the day into the overnight...though this all depends on the evolution of upstream convection today and tonight ahead of the upstream shortwave axis. Best shot at anything trying to get spicy this afternoon will be near and south of M-72 again, and particularly over toward Saginaw Bay, where things could become uncapped with enough mixing and a northward-enough surge of the warm front today...though some of the more aggressive hi-res guidance would like to develop some activity as far north as the Tip of the Mitt into northeast Lower. Concerning rain today through Thursday...anomalous moisture combined with continued forcing will keep the threat of heavy rain focused across the region. The convective aspect could certainly remain further south, leaving us in a more stratiform area again...and even stratiform rains have potential to be productive, noting the warm cloud layer depth could be close to 3km and supportive of more efficient warm rain processes later this afternoon into tonight. Think the best shot at seeing better accumulations will remain near and south of M-72 (where it is also not needed)...but especially near and south of M-55, with prob guidance highlighting central Lower into Saginaw Bay for an inch or better of rain (70+ percent chance). Not impossible there could be a bit better deformation band/trowal-esque axis tonight, given potential for a more well- defined shortwave trough this time around...and this could favor a shot at a swath of more productive rainfall from late tonight/early Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon. If this idea comes to fruition...it is (unfortunately) possible it may stretch from NW Lower up into perhaps the Tip of the Mitt region, where hi-res probs suggest there is a low-end shot (20 percent or less) at seeing more than an inch of additional rain in 24hrs thru Thursday afternoon. After a brief reprieve late Thursday into part of Friday...our next shot of rain/storms returns Friday night into Saturday. Appears we should be looking at another slug of anomalous moisture as a more dynamic system moves through. Will have to be on the lookout for more heavy rain concerns, which could be focused at times by fgen, particularly along the cold front Saturday, though this feature would be quicker moving (in theory). Attm...long range prob guidance does hint at potential for around an inch of additional precip (likely rain) Friday night through Sunday morning, though attm potential is low (15 percent or less), which could be attributed to some uncertainty in how the convective aspect plays out...and will need to keep an eye on this. Snow potential returns on the backside of the system Saturday night into Sunday as temperatures fall quite dramatically...850mb temps drop back below 0C, and perhaps as low as -10C to -15C by Sunday, which would crank up overlake instability again on brisk northwest to west flow. High temperatures potentially in the 30s on Sunday, combined with overnight lows falling back to or below freezing...could lead to some accumulations. Fortunately this may only be a quick shot of cold air...otherwise, a prolonged period of cold could further complicate our soggy hydro situation up here. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 718 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 LIFR cigs/visbys this morning with fog around. Expect this to prevail at most if not all sites thru at least morning; think LIFR cigs will prevail for the bulk of the period with occasional bumps to IFR/MVFR possible at times, esp this morning for TVC and this afternoon for APN. Potential for VCTS or TSRA at sites south of TVC- APN esp after 21z. Winds generally light and vrb and will depend on where a boundary sets up today...but expect generally east or south winds; possible we could see lake breezes this afternoon, esp if sun breaks out. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Flood Watch through late Thursday night for MIZ016>018-020>036- 041-042-086>088-095-096-099. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...FEF AVIATION...FEF  918 FXUS64 KBRO 151118 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 618 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 617 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Key Messages: - Breezy conditions will continue this week. - A moderate risk of rip currents will likely prevail through the week. - Temperatures above average through this week with a cool down late this weekend with the passage of a cold front. - Unsettled conditions return this weekend in association with a cold front moving through Texas. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1013 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 High pressure over the Gulf into the southeastern US will maintain warm, breezy, and dry conditions through the week. Temperatures will continue to warm through Saturday with low to mid 90s expected for much of the region by Thursday. Coastal areas will remain in the upper 70s to upper 80s. Moderate to strong southeasterly winds will continue this week with Friday being the breeziest day. While we look to stay below Wind Advisory criteria, this will be something we monitor closely. As we head into the weekend, a cold front moving through Texas will bring rain and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon through Monday. The aforementioned front will move through Deep South Texas on Sunday which will also be the day of our highest rain chances, which have gone up slightly to 50-60%. Cooler temperatures are expected in wake of the front with highs only in the 70s for Sunday. A moderate risk of rip currents is expected through Wednesday and will likely increase by this weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 617 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 MVFR to VFR will continue to be the rule at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 1013 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Generally favorable marine conditions are expected on the waters off the lower Texas coast with moderate winds and waves. Could see some caution conditions at times each day through the weekend due to an enhanced pressure gradient. Headed in the late week, winds will increase ahead of a frontal boundary which could lead to Small Craft Advisories on Friday for the Laguna Madre and nearshore waters. In wake of a frontal passage on Sunday winds will pick up again with Small Craft Advisories likely. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 86 73 88 73 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 89 70 90 70 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 91 74 93 74 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 91 72 95 72 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 79 74 80 74 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 85 71 86 72 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$  159 FXUS65 KGJT 151118 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 518 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Sub-freezing temperatures are expected for most valleys Wednesday morning where a Freeze Warning is in place. A Freeze Watch is in effect for a few valleys Wednesday night into Thursday morning as well. - After a brief mid-week warm up, colder and unsettled weather returns to the region Thursday night into Saturday morning with widespread hard freeze possible as well as mountain and high valley snow. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1050 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Satellite imagery and radar show the low that transited the region this afternoon is now moving over the Front Range and out onto the Plains. Convective activity has for the most part ended under subsidence behind the low with only light orographic showers continuing, primarily along the western and northwestern faces of rising terrain. Look for these showers to diminish overnight with only a few lingering into the morning hours along the higher peaks of the central Colorado Mountains. As the system moves out, sub-freezing temperatures are likely overnight through Wednesday morning for most lower valleys with the exception of the Grand Valley and valleys of east-central and southeast Utah. Thus a Freeze Warning for these areas is in place through 9 AM. The growing season is well underway for all lower valleys so protect plants and sensitive vegetation if you are impacted. Can't really say a ridge builds in behind the retreating low because the next low pressure system is hot on its heels descending along the British Columbia Coast, and will move in through the Pacific Northwest by Wednesday afternoon to keep any ridge knocked down. At most the flow aloft becomes more zonal advecting warm air into the region to restore temperatures across eastern Utah and Western Colorado to near to a little above normal Wednesday, warming to five degrees or more above normal Thursday. In spite of these temperatures warming to normal, they remain cooler than we've seen the last week or so, and some areas may continue below the freezing mark with potential for below freezing temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday morning for the southwest Colorado valleys and the Central Colorado River Basin (valleys east of New Castle and south of Glenwood Springs to Carbondale), hence we have a Freeze Watch in place for these areas Wednesday night. Stay tuned for an update on this in the morning as the forecast temperatures become more certain. The next system drops in from the northwest Thursday with strong jet support and a tight pressure gradient through the middle atmosphere producing winds gusting 30 to 40 mph in the valleys and 45 to 60 mph in the mountains. These stronger winds and jet are indicative of the strength of the cold front associated with this system having temperatures falling 20 degrees or more behind the front. Expect showers and isolated thunderstorms moving into the Uinta Mountains Thursday afternoon ahead of the cold front that drops in Thursday evening. These showers will push southeast to I-70 through the evening and to the San Juan Mountains overnight into Friday morning with the cold front running three to six hours behind the start of the showers. Look for wide spread showers continuing behind the frontal boundary with snow levels falling 5000 feet. Though the heavy cloud cover Friday morning will keep temperatures in the low to mid 30's, don't be surprised to see snow flakes falling in the Grand Valley through the morning. The widespread showers will diminish west to east through Friday as the upper-level trough moves overhead. Thunderstorms will increase through the afternoon mostly over the mountains as the right entrance region of the jet moves overhead. The moisture associated with this system continues to decline with each run of the models, which is typical with these northwest systems, and hence winter headline are not expected. But with the strong dynamics with this system, brief snow squalls may be possible with the cold front Thursday night, with reduced visibility and rapidly deteriorating road conditions. Stay tuned for updates on this possibility. Behind this cold front, a hard freeze is forecast for Friday night into Saturday morning as this system moves off to the east. Many of the valleys across the region will see lows in the teens to low 20's with the Grand Valley and other lower valleys seeing temperatures in the mid to upper 20's. Expect headlines for this in the next day or so, but now is the time to start planning for this cold snap. Looking beyond Saturday, a high pressure ridge builds back in this weekend into early next week, resulting in a return back up towards above normal warmth as the rollercoaster spring weather continues. However, another storm system potentially looms for mid to late next week, so we still look to remain in this progressive pattern. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 514 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Trapped surface moisture has led to low clouds lingering through the night, and likely will remain in place through 18z this afternoon. For KEGE, KRIL, and KASE, this means ceilings will remain below breakpoints. And occasionally ceilings may lower enough to drop conditions into MVFR/IFR. Showers have mostly come to an end though. Winds remain generally light and terrain driven. After 15z, look for winds to increase and turn westerly to southwesterly. Higher elevation terminals, and those along and north of I-70, will see some gusty afternoon winds, with gusts up to around 20 knots expected. VFR conditions will prevail. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for COZ001-002-007- 008-011-020>023. Freeze Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for COZ008-021>023. UT...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for UTZ024. && $$ DISCUSSION...MDA/DB AVIATION...TGJT  462 FXUS66 KPQR 151118 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 418 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .SYNOPSIS...The back edge of a cold frontal boundary which has spread ample precipitatiion and mountain snowfall across the Pacific Northwest quickly progresses through the region this morning followed by a showery airmass and a 15-30% chance for thunderstorms this afternoon. A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for the Cascades through tonight. Concerns shift to cooler overnight temperatures and possible frost/freeze conditions to round out the week. After a brief stint of dry and warmer weather Saturday, precipitation chances return by early next week although forecast confidence Sunday onward is low. && .SHORT TERM...Now through Thursday Night...Early this morning satellite and radar observations show our latest weather disturbance in the form of a cold-frontal boundary and the wide band of stratiform precipitation dropping NW to SE across western Oregon. Snow-levels are expected to quickly bottom out around 1500-2000ft in the cold airmass behind the frontal boundary by late morning with snowfall continuing to be the primary impact with this disturbance focused over the Cascades. We're still watching for a potential for 1-3 hr period of dynamic cooling artificially lowering snow levels closer to ~1000ft around sunrise this morning, particularly in coast range and southwest Washington southward through portions of Clackamas County. However, as far as travel is concerned, it'll be challenging to get accumulation on roadways at this elevation should a period of wet snow or a rain/snow mix occur. The chances for a light slush-up gets higher once you reach 1500ft, particularly in the Cascade foothills/valleys, but due to the warm antecedent conditions most impacts remain 2000-2500ft+. The heavier precipitation early to mid morning helping to drive these lower snow levels will also help to boost snowfall rates at pass level, likely reaching 1-1.5+ in/hr until the frost passes. If you plan to traverse across the mountain passes today, please prepare for winter-like travel conditions. Once we get into the midday and afternoon hours we'll have transition to a more convective and showery post frontal environment thanks to the core of a upper level low moving overhead. Most models still show Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) values peaking around 200 to 500 j/kg this afternoon leading to a 15-30% chance for thunderstorm development across the CWA. The main time period of focus is 11AM to 7PM today when heating between shower bands is maximized. Convective Allowing Model (CAM) soundings are showing a skinny CAPE profile and along with cooler temperatures aloft, this does support tiny hail/graupel development with any thunderstorms that develop and given that when spring time thunderstorms develop within our CWA, they have a tendency to produce a lot of tiny pea size hail. Also be on the lookout for infrequent lightning, gusty winds, and heavy rain associated with any activity. With the loss of daytime heating thunderstorm chances decrease Wednesday night although showers likely persist. At this point the axis of the upper-level low pulls to our east with increasing heights on northerly flow aloft by sunrise Thursday morning helping to decrease shower activity. The lingering cooler temperatures aloft and partial clearing by sunrise should allow overnight lows to drop below normal bottoming out in the mid 30s across the lowlands. Below freezing temperatures are even forecast for the higher coast range/Cascade valleys, including the Hood River Valley, and potentially in the Cascade foothills mainly around and south of OR-22. Give the moderate to high confidence in these low temperatures panning out, have issued frost advisories for much of the region including a Freeze Watch for the Upper Hood River Valley and a couple of the aforementioned Oregon Cascade foothill zones. A few showers likely lingering through Thursday, increasing in the afternoon due to daytime heating, however, the bulk of the activity will be pinned to terrain features in the Cascades and coast range. Similar frost/freeze conditions may develop again Thursday night into Friday morning and additional highlights may be needed for this period. Even though temperatures warm slightly aloft Thursday night compared to Wednesday night/Thursday morning, weak pressure gradients combined with a building ridge of high pressure aloft and better clearing may prove to be a better set-up for frost development. -99/42 .LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...Looking towards the weekend confidence is high among both deterministic and ensemble guidance in a ridge of high pressure continuing to build aloft allowing temperatures to gradually warm and reduce frost concerns. However the pattern remains rather progressive as models show the ridge quickly followed by another low pressure system on Sunday originating from the Gulf of Alaska. WPC Cluster Guidance does favor this low dropping almost straight southward across the eastern Pacific favoring this low holding just off the OR/WA coast. How far this low holds off the coast will heavily modulate conditions locally. Should it stay more to our west, warmer conditions and broad southerly flow would be favored, That said, any moisture riding south to north within this flow pattern could spell the return of convection. Thus forecast confidence Sunday onward into the middle of next week is low. -99/42 && .AVIATION...As we move through the morning hours steadier rain will transition to showers behind the frontal boundary moving overhead - KAST has already seen an improvement back to VFR as a result. Expect a south to northwest wind switch when the front passes this morning as well. However, as bands of showers move overhead, especially during the afternoon and evening hours, brief drop to MVFR or IFR can be expected. On the whole there is a 20-40% chance for MVFR conditions at the coast this afternoon with a 15-25% inland. It's also worth highlighting there is also a 20-30% chance for thunderstorms for all terminals after roughly 18-21z today with lightning and gusty/erratic winds the primary impacts. Chances for these storms quickly drop off around 4-6z Thur. KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR conditions and breezy southerly winds likely persist until 14-16z this morning while the primary precipitation band sits overhead. After his point winds gain a westerly component while rainfall turns more showery, but at least it trends more towards VFR the remainder of the TAF period. Keep in mind there will be a 20-25% chance for thunderstorms locally after ~20z through -4z this evening. Any robust showers or storms may briefly drop conditions to MVFR/IFR. -99 && .MARINE...A cold frontal boundary is quickly progressing across the coastal waters early this morning with winds switching northwesterly in its wake. Expect gusts between 20-30 knots the remainder of the day as an area of low pressure drops along the Canadian coast toward the region. This feature will also bring a 15-25% chance of thunderstorms over the waters into the evening hours. Seas are expected to persist at around around 9 to 10 ft, building slightly to around 10 to 12 ft tonight as a fresh northwest swell moves through the waters. The Small Craft Advisory remains in place through Thursday morning for both the inner and outer waters, including the Columbia River Bar. High pressure then builds over the waters Thursday into the weekend as northerly winds return and seas gradually subside to around 3 to 6 ft Friday into Saturday. It appears there's a 40-60% chance for north winds to gust above 21 knots into Small Craft Criteria on Saturday. Looking ahead there is potential for another weather system to impact the waters later this weekend, possibly increasing winds and seas. -99/DH && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ104>107- 109-114>118-123. Freeze Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for ORZ121-124-125. Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning for ORZ123. Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ126>128. WA...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM PDT Thursday for WAZ204-205- 208. Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM PDT Thursday for WAZ211. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ210. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ251>253- 271>273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland  267 FXUS63 KICT 151119 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 619 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe thunderstorm threat across southeast Kansas this afternoon and evening. Another round of severe storms is possible on Friday afternoon and evening. - Well above average temperatures through Friday, brief cool down for the weekend. - A very high grassland fire danger for areas west of I-135 on Thursday and Friday afternoon. A very high grassland fire danger may return for areas west of I-135 Sunday through Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 227 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 An elongated mid/upper trough stretched from South Dakota SSW over the Rockies into the Southwest early this morning. This trough is progged to translate eastward emerging over the Plains states today. Ahead of this feature, a dryline across the Flint Hills will become a focus for showers and thunderstorms. The warm sector is progged to be weakly capped with storm development possible by early-mid afternoon. Deep-layer shear vectors are progged to be in a similar orientation to the boundary leading to a messy storm mode but we could see a couple of supercells with the initial development as we remain within an enhanced southwest mid/upper flow regime. Any discrete storms would be capable of producing large/very large hail and a tornado before we start to see more clustering toward evening. The activity is expected to be east/southeast of the area by 8-9 pm. As the shortwave trough translates eastward away from the area, we will see mid/upper ridging build over the central CONUS on Thursday resulting in mild an dry conditions. Afternoon highs are expected to climb into the 80s areawide. A vigorous mid/upper trough will move out of the Northern Intermountain Region and into the Rockies late in the day on Friday. Ahead of this system, a nocturnal LLJ is expected to nose into south central KS early on Friday but it looks like the cap will preclude early morning convection. A cold front will bisect Kansas as we move into the early afternoon hours becoming a focus for showers and storms by mid- afternoon as the cap weakens. Similar to Wed, we see deep layer shear vectors in a similar orientation to the cold front leading to another messy storm mode situation. A line of storms capable of damaging winds and large hail is favored as the front races south and east through the evening hours. Mid-lvl waa/isentropic upglide may lead to some post-frontal thunderstorms capable of large hail and heavy rain as we move into the early evening hours. The activity is expected to move south and east of the area by around midnight. Sat-Tue...A stable post-frontal regime is anticipated across the area as we move into Saturday with seasonably cool air expected. Afternoon highs are expected to top out around 60 for most areas. As high pressure settles over the area Sat night into early Sun we could see some areas of frost develop as low temperatures fall into the 30s. A mid/upper ridge is progged to translate eastward into the central CONUS Sun-Tue with rising heights/increasing thickness supporting rising temperatures across the area. Above normal temperatures are expected to return on Monday with highs on Tuesday reaching the 80s in central KS. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 616 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Some MVFR ceilings are lingering for areas along and southeast of the Kansas Turnpike, but VFR should return to ICT by 14-15Z while lingering through the morning at KCNU. Winds will veer to west and southwest in central KS as a frontal boundary moves eastward into eastern Kansas. Showers and storms are possible again this afternoon and into the evening mainly in southeast KS. Maintained a PROB30 group for CNU through 02z with this issuance with VFR and light winds anticipated thereafter. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 227 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Breezy southerly winds will return to central Kansas on Thursday and especially on Friday while very dry air will also lingers. Minimum afternoon relative humidity is expected to be in the teens on Thursday while rising into the 25-30 percent range on Friday, although gusty southwest winds will increase on Friday. A very high grassland fire danger will develop for areas west of I-135 on both Thursday and Friday during the afternoon hours. A very high grassland fire danger may return early next week for areas west of I-135. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MWM AVIATION...MWM FIRE WEATHER...MWM  006 FXUS65 KCYS 151120 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 520 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A High Wind Watch remains in effect for the typical wind prones across southeast Wyoming from 6 AM through 3 PM Wednesday. - A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for many locations east of the Laramie Range from noon to 8 PM on Thursday. - A potent weather disturbance will produce windy, colder, and wetter weather Thursday night into Friday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 222 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 What a difference a day makes, the system that impacted the CWA yesterday will be a distant memory as it moves off to the east. A transient ridge will build, bringing blue skies and warmer temperatures. So, highs today will soar into the upper 50s west of the Laramie Range and 60s/70s to the east with lows Wednesday night dipping into the 40s across the region. The only headline for today will be the potential of a low end high wind event in our known wind prones across southeast Wyoming. The 700MB jet cranks up this morning, peaking around 50 knots. However, per the GFS, subsidence is meager, so these winds may not mix all the way down to the surface. In-house guidance agrees and shows generally less than 40% chance of high winds. So, due to low confidence, the High Wind Watch will remain as is from 6AM this morning to 3PM this afternoon. Thereafter, winds will be on a slight downward trend. Onto Thursday, well, some changes are in-store and that beautiful bright light in the sky will become shrouded by clouds. First thing first, lets take a gander at the upper-levels, a positively tilted trough will slide east across the Intermountain West to our doorstep by Thursday night, this is the feature that will bring the changes that I briefly mentioned earlier. Ahead of this, with southwesterly flow aloft, highs will soar back to around 60 for many locations west of I-25 and the upper 60s to upper 70s east of the corridor. By Thursday afternoon through the nighttime hours that's when things will change. Embedded in this trough is a cold front that will dive southeast across the CWA, bringing increased chances precipitation and much colder temps. So, by Thursday afternoon precipitation will begin to enter our CWA across our northwest forecast zones. As we progress into the nighttime hours, the cold front continues to slide southeast, as it does, precipitation chances increase. The other thing of note, as upper-level flow turns northwesterly, a colder airmass will spread into our CWA. Taking a look at 700MB temps, they tank into the -12 to -14 degree C range by Friday morning, so expect low 20s to around 30 as you begin your day. During Thursday night, as temperature tank, precipitation will transition to snow. As a result, northwest of a line from Laramie to Chadron, many locations could wake up to a dusting to an inch of snow. I know chances of snow may excite you, but we can't forget about winds. Another potential high wind event along with elevated fire concerns late Thursday morning into afternoon hours. We will have the 700MB jet ramp up once again early Thursday morning to around 60 knots, primarily over the Laramie Range. With weak subsidence in place, these winds will have a hard time mixing down to the surface. With low probs, via in-house guidance, no headlines as of now. However, it appears that it will become breezy which will increase the fire weather threat as min RH values dip into the 10 to 15 percent range east of the I-25 corridor, stay tuned... && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 1255 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Our ridge starts to become flattened and pushed off to the east Thursday. A cold low pressure system will start to push into the Intermountain west as it dives southeast from the Saskatchewan/Albertan Providences bringing a colder airmass with it. A cold front will start push through the Southeast Wyoming area late afternoon to early evening. Models show it being a pretty stout front with temps in the 50's in front and 30's behind it. However, due to the timing of the front a fire weather watch was issued for Goshen, Platte, Laramie, and the Nebraska Panhandle counties as RH values look likely to drop between 10 and 15 percent for the afternoon coupled with the breezy winds between 20 to 25 mph. Converse and Niobrara weren't included because there is uncertainty with how low the RH will drop before the cold front pushes through raising the humidity above possible threshold values. There will be some showers associated with this front as well. Looking at the model soundings the mid-levels will saturate first and produce virga at first. But the virga should reach the ground into the overnight period and likely come down as snow as we saturate the lower levels and below freezing. 700mb temperatures look to drop to about -13C making it for a colder Wyoming Friday with temps in the 30's while the Panhandle looks to be in the low 40's. The snow showers will continue into Friday as the pressure system start to makes its way into the Northern Plains. Friday night will be the peak of the cold airmass as overnight temperatures drop into the teens and twenties. Another ridge will also start to push into the Intermountain west late Friday afternoon keeping us in Northwesterly flow filtering in that colder air from the North and tightening our pressure gradient creating a cold breezy wind as well. Total accumulations from the Thursday/Friday system looks to be around 3-4 inches in areas west of the I-25 corridor, 2-3 inches along the I-25 corridor, and about 1-2 inches east of the corridor. For the Nebraska Panhandle it looks to be roughly 0.5 to 1 inch of snow with some 1-2 inch areas closer to the WY/NE border. By Saturday morning the system should be far enough east to stop snowing while the ridge moves further east as well. The airmass over the intermountain west will gradually warm up but the Saturday temps will still be in the 40's and 50's. Sunday, warm temps in the 60/70's east of I-25 return with mostly clear skies in the afternoon. This warmer ridge is currently expected to last until Tuesday morning before another shortwave could possibly hit the Intermountain West again. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 520 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Minimal aviation concerns as VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals for the duration of this TAF period. Winds for the southeast Wyoming sites will be a bit breezy with gusts 25 to 45 knots. Nebraska terminals will see winds ramping up to 20 to 30 knots a bit later, by 17Z, except KCDR which will be around 03Z Thursday. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for WYZ430>433. High Wind Watch until 3 PM MDT this afternoon for WYZ106-110- 116-117. NE...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for NEZ434>437. && $$ SHORT TERM...RZ LONG TERM...MM AVIATION...RZ  161 FXUS65 KABQ 151120 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 520 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 501 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Hazardous crosswinds will create difficult travel for large and high-profile vehicles again Thursday and Friday mainly across eastern NM. - Critical fire weather conditions return Thursday to northeastern and east-central NM and a majority of the state Friday, increasing the threat of rapid fire spread from any new spark. - A hard freeze is forecast Friday night into Saturday morning across portions of central, western and northern NM. Take precautions to protect early blooming plants. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 1239 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Calmer conditions are moving into the Land of Enchantment tonight as yesterday's upper low opens and ejects northeastward out over the central Great Plains region tonight. A few locations continue to see localized breezy conditions near this midnight hour, but overall lighter winds will continue to take hold tonight. The calmer and clearer conditions in tandem with lowering humidity will allow for temperatures to efficiently drop tonight. This will be especially true over the western and northern thirds of the state where Wednesday morning lows are forecast to fall to near or below freezing. This includes near freezing along the San Juan River near Farmington. Wednesday will see very pleasant spring weather across the Land of Enchantment with highs ranging from the 60s to 80s and modest afternoon breezes. Thursday sees the next round of dry and windy weather move in as a synoptic scale troughing pattern moves into the northwestern CONUS. The main trough axis of this system will still be a ways away over northern NV come Thursday, but still close enough to allow for windy conditions to spread across the state in the afternoon. Peak gusts of 35 to 45 mph will focus over the northeastern highlands and plains. Warm air advection alongside these southwesterly winds will help raise temperatures 5F to 10F into the 70s and 80s for many locations, with 60s in the higher elevations. Wind speeds taper off Thursday night as the atmosphere decouples with stronger speeds on tap for Friday to begin the long term period. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1239 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Numerical model guidance continues to unfortunately show the track of a late week system stay to the north of NM and over the CO Rockies. This will yield a dry and windy and fire growth pattern across the Land of Enchantment. This system, anchored by a ~100kt H3 jetmax on its southeastern periphery will quickly produce strong southwesterly winds across the state early Friday. These stronger winds gusting 45 to 55 mph will first focus over the central mountain chain before spreading to surrounding lower elevations early Friday afternoon. The Pacific portion of the cold front will bring a sharp northwesterly wind shift to the Four Corners region first near midday before advancing south and eastward across the state reaching the central mountain chain and highlands in the early evening. As such, southwesterly winds will begin to taper off first over the south-central mountains near Ruidoso, becoming focused along the Sangre de Cristo's and over the central highlands Friday evening, veering west to northwest during this time. This will be where the strongest wind gusts of 45 to 60 mph will be favored to occur, notably along the central and northeastern highlands and plains. Thereafter, winds will taper off nearly all areas late Friday evening and night. The exception looks to be the central highlands where subsidence behind the front bringing down locally stronger H7 winds will likely keep strong westerly to northwesterly winds going a bit closer to midnight Friday night. The Pacific and backdoor portions of the cold front meet across eastern NM, advancing southward together thru the night with winds lessening area wide thru Saturday morning. A sharp drop in temperatures aided by lessening winds and very low Td's in the single-digits to near zero will allow for some very cold low temperatures Saturday morning. Lows in the teens and low 20s across the western and northern third of the state will threaten a hard freeze, capable of killing early season blooms that awoke too early from March's record heat wave. A soft freeze will also favor areas in the middle Rio Grande Valley in Albuquerque and much of the east-central plains from Tucumcari to Clovis, as well as the San Francisco River Valley from Luna to Glenwood. Temperatures warm back into the 50s and 60s across the area Saturday afternoon with pleasant weather conditions. Winds veer out of the south Sunday bringing a warm up and increased moisture and humidity to the area to end the weekend. This will only yield a modest increase in precipitation chances Sunday and Monday with afternoon virga showers favored for the most part. Tuesday sees forecast confidence plummet as a significant closed low swirls over or just offshore CA. Model guidance is having a notably hard time resolving the evolution and track of this system given its complex and dynamic structure. Nevertheless, increased winds and precipitation chances currently looked favored to enter the region sometime during the middle portion of next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 501 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR prevails today as light prevailing winds this morning yield to breezy westerlies this afternoon, generally gusting 15 to 25kts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1239 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Elevated fire weather conditions will be present over eastern NM today with modest breezy winds this afternoon. A fire growing pattern returns Thursday ahead of a potent storm system expected to track north of NM Friday. Critical fire weather conditions will favor the northeastern highlands and plains where strong southwesterly winds gusting 35 to 45 mph will be present. Minimum humidity falling below 10 percent will allow for elevated to locally critical conditions elsewhere across the state. Much stronger southwesterly winds will expand critical fire weather condtions to a majority of the state Friday, especially along and east of the central mountain chain where gusts of 45 to 60 mph will be favored. A sharp westerly to northwesterly wind shift will follow a fast moving cold front northwest to southeast across the state Friday afternoon and evening. This will usher in a sharp drop in temperatures and dewpoints, allowing for a very cold night with subfreezing temperatures for the northwestern half of the state by Saturday morning. Winds lessen Friday night and Saturday, ending the critical fire weather threat. Temperatures rebound and warm up Sunday and Monday alongside an influx of moisture and better overnight recoveries into the region. Another round of stronger winds looks favored at some point Tuesday or Wednesday next week ahead of an approaching strong Pacific storm system. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 65 35 72 43 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 60 22 67 33 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 60 31 68 38 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 63 25 68 33 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 60 31 67 35 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 64 28 70 33 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 61 30 68 35 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 65 39 71 40 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 60 34 67 36 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 69 28 71 30 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 73 34 75 35 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 54 25 61 31 / 5 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 60 39 66 44 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 62 35 67 38 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 58 33 63 38 / 5 0 0 0 Red River....................... 49 28 54 32 / 5 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 55 21 61 25 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 62 26 68 31 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 61 32 67 35 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 68 33 74 40 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 62 39 70 43 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 65 35 73 41 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 68 44 74 49 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 70 41 77 46 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 73 39 80 45 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 70 42 77 48 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 73 34 79 41 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 71 40 77 48 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 72 34 79 41 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 71 40 78 47 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 72 36 79 43 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 65 42 73 48 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 71 41 77 48 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 75 40 80 43 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 63 39 69 44 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 64 39 70 44 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 65 34 71 40 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 66 27 73 35 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 61 35 68 38 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 65 35 71 40 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 65 36 70 41 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 68 42 73 47 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 61 40 66 46 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 61 31 71 37 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 65 29 74 34 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 68 29 77 35 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 64 34 70 38 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 69 41 79 46 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 68 36 75 42 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 76 39 84 46 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 71 38 80 45 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 77 42 85 48 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 77 44 82 50 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 78 42 83 50 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 76 39 83 46 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 80 43 86 49 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 73 42 79 48 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 71 38 75 46 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for NMZ104-123-125-126. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...24  267 FXUS64 KCRP 151122 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 622 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 619 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Moderate risk of rip currents and periods of minor coastal flooding will persist, increasing towards the end of the week - Very warm to hot conditions through Saturday. Much cooler Sunday/Monday - Rain chances return this weekend with an approaching cold front. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 112 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Dryline remains west of the area for the remainder of tonight, and convection should remain west and north of our area through the night, though a storm or two could approach northern Webb county toward sunrise. Similar to Tuesday morning, would expect a few streamer showers to develop in the Coastal Plains Wednesday morning and again Thursday morning with the persistent onshore flow and moisture convergence near the coast. Mainly trace amounts of rain would be expected but a spotty few hundredths could happen. Otherwise expect mainly dry conditions through Friday. Temperatures will continue to climb a degree or two each day with well above normal temperatures, especially inland where highs in the mid 90s are expected Thursday and Friday. We'll look toward a pattern change this weekend as a cold front moves out of the Rockies, heading our way. A few showers will be possible in the Coastal Plains Saturday morning, but better changes (30-50%) come Saturday night into Sunday ahead of the front. At this time rainfall amounts aren't especially impressive - mainly under half an inch. Where the highest totals are is unclear as guidance differs on how much of the dry air gets this far south. Behind the shallow front, isentropic lift will set up for Monday into Tuesday. Current PoPs for Monday and Monday night sitting around 20-30%, but isentropic lift looks fairly impressive so think we'll see a gradual increase in these over the next few days. As with most isentropic scenarios, accumulation will be light these days. Much cooler temperatures can be expected for Sunday and Monday. Highs will be mainly in the 70s, but with a thick cloud cover, can't rule out some highs in the 60s, especially west. Temperatures will gradually increase Tuesday into Wednesday as onshore flow returns. Continue to watch coastal flooding potential, but at least for tonight through Wednesday we should stay below these levels. A gradual increase in tide levels is expected late in the week, and we could be looking at advisory level conditions Friday into the weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 619 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 MVFR ceilings are expected to continue early this morning with intermittent breaks in the clouds. Predominate VFR conditions are expected to return by mid-morning and continue through the evening. Winds will increase tomorrow afternoon and decrease after sunset. MVFR ceilings will return tonight across the eastern sites, however, they are expected to develop later in the night around 09z compared to the last few days. && .MARINE... Issued at 112 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A Moderate to Fresh (BF 4-5) onshore flow will persist through Thursday. A strong (BF 6) onshore flow is expected to develop across all marine zones on Friday with advisory conditions likely. Winds relax Saturday, then shift to the northeast and become strong late Saturday night into early Sunday in the wake of a cold front. Low rain chances (<~15%) expected through the end of the workweek but increase this weekend as the cold front moves across the region. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 112 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 The chance for wetting rains through the work week are very low (<10%) along with continued above normal temperatures. Minimum RH values will remain generally above 30-40% through the period. South to southeast winds are expected to strengthen across South Texas Friday, but based on the forecasted above normal moisture and low ERC values, elevated fire weather is not expected at this time. The chance of thunderstorms with measurable rainfall increases over the weekend as a cold front moves across South Texas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 84 72 85 72 / 10 0 0 0 Victoria 85 69 87 69 / 10 0 0 0 Laredo 91 71 95 72 / 0 10 0 0 Alice 88 70 91 71 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 82 73 84 74 / 20 0 0 0 Cotulla 90 70 94 71 / 10 10 0 0 Kingsville 86 70 89 71 / 10 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 80 74 82 74 / 10 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...PH/83 AVIATION...JCP/84  240 FXUS62 KJAX 151122 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 722 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Moderate Risk of Rip Currents For Area Beaches - Extreme to Exceptional Drought Continues. Dry & Warmer This Week. Critically Low Minimum Humidity Values inland each day. Dry Conditions Will Support Increase Risk of Fire Spread - Fog Potential Each Morning through Friday - Strong Onshore Winds & Small Craft Advisory Conditions && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main Highlights Today and Tonight: - Near record warmth inland areas with highs near 90F - Locally dense fog possible during late night/early morning hours - Wildfire risk remains very high Dry, sunny, and warm weather continues today with high pressure dominating over the area. Elevated fire danger persists today with low minimum relative humidity values over inland locations. High temperatures will range today, with an onshore breeze keeping coastal temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s, hotter as you go inland with some locations reaching 90 degrees and near record levels this afternoon before the Atlantic sea breeze pushes inland later this afternoon with gusts to 20-25 mph possible. Enough moisture coupled with calm winds early this morning and again late tonight will prompt inland fog development over most of northeast Florida and southeast Georgia, with highest chances for patchy dense fog just west of I-95. Low temps continue in the 50s inland and around 60F along the Atlantic Coast. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... - Fog potential each morning especially inland - Dry & warm weather persist as temperatures near or break record highs on Friday High pressure extending from Bermuda will remain over the area through the end of the week. Warm and dry weather persists as southerly flow continues to bring in warm and dry air into the area. Daytime highs will continue to trend above seasonal norms as temperatures rise into the lower 90s for most locations, with some locations potentially matching or breaking record highs on Friday. Cooler temperatures in the lower to mid 80s along the coast as onshore flow will help to keep temperatures from rising into the 90s. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. As mentioned in the previous forecast package, only other noteworthy weather impact will be patchy to areas of fog inland each morning, with patchy "superfog" possible near smoke from any ongoing wildfires. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: - The dry and warm weather persist into the weekend. - Morning fog potential to continue each day. High pressure begins to shift towards the Atlantic on Saturday ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. A weak southerly flow as the high pressure moves offshore. Dry conditions persist as much of the showers along the front is expected to dissipate before reaching the local area. With dry air filtering in behind the front, the status quo of limited chances of precipitation will persist into the next week. High pressure builds and stretch southward along the eastern seaboard, bringing the potential for another period of breezy onshore flow beginning late Sunday Night/early Monday Morning and lingering into Tuesday. Another day of record high temperatures on Saturday with highs reaching into the 90s and isolated locations reaching into the mid 90s. By Sunday, temperatures will cool a bit with the approaching front. By the start of the upcoming week, temperatures will be at near normal as highs will be in the mid 70s to low 80s. Lows will be a little above normal during the period cooling to near normal by Monday and Tuesday nights. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Patchy fog lingers at VQQ and CRG for the next hour causing restrictions. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail through the period. Light winds this morning shift to southeasterly at around 10 kts after 17Z due to the Atlantic sea breeze shifting inland. Winds start to decrease after sunset and become near calm again by the end of the TAF period. && .MARINE... High pressure ridging will be the prevailing feature through the the weekend, with flow gradually shifting more southeasterly to southerly over the next several days. A mostly dry frontal passage is expected Sunday Night with only a few showers and storms. A surge of northeasterly winds develops in the wake of the front Monday into Tuesday bringing Small Craft Advisory conditions with the potential for Gale force gusts. Rip Currents and Surf: Solid Moderate Risk of Rips will continue for NE FL/SE GA beaches in the SE/onshore flow the rest of the week with surf/breakers mainly in the 2-3 ft range. && .FIRE WEATHER... - Low Inland Min RH Values Each Day This Week High pressure remains over the area, continuing the dry, sunny, and very warm conditions for inland locations through the weekend. This, combined with the exceptional/extreme drought, will continue the elevated fire risk across the area. Critically low Min RH values inland will repeat each afternoon lowering to the mid 20s to low 30s into Saturday. Wind flow pattern will prevail from the southeast Today, south on Thursday, southwesterly Friday with the Gulf seabreeze moving further inland and the Atlantic seabreeze staying closer to the coast. Dispersions remain in the good range through the week, with higher dispersions likely to develop this weekend. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy inland fog will develop each morning this week. There will be potential for Localized "superfog" each morning near the vicinity of any smoke from ongoing wildfires. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures at NE FL/SE GA climate sites: April 15: JAX 90/2006, CRG 91/2001, GNV 92/1936, AMG 91/1954 April 16: JAX 90/1972, CRG 91/2011, GNV 90/1967, AMG 92/1967 April 17: JAX 93/1967, CRG 90/2006, GNV 90/1945, AMG 91/1967 April 18: JAX 94/1967, CRG 89/2018, GNV 91/1967, AMG 92/1967 April 19: JAX 92/1995, CRG 91/2013, GNV 94/2011, AMG 91/1968 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 91 58 91 60 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 81 61 81 64 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 87 57 90 60 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 81 58 84 61 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 90 55 91 57 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 89 55 90 59 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None. && $$  008 FXUS63 KFSD 151122 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 622 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy and locally dense fog is developing early this morning north of I-90. Visibility may fall below one mile at times. - Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms continue through this evening, mainly focused across northwestern Iowa and adjacent areas in eastern Nebraska and extreme southeastern South Dakota. - An isolated strong to severe storm is possible this afternoon and evening along/south of a line from Norfolk, Nebraska to Spencer, Iowa. Highest risk is from 3 to 7 PM. If a stronger storm can develop, main threats are hail to ping pong ball size (1.5 inches) and wind gusts to 60 mph. A tornado cannot be ruled out. - Unseasonably warm temperatures, very low humidity, and breezy southwest wind gusts lead to near critical to critical fire danger Thursday. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued along/west of I-29. Additional fire concerns possible Friday but confidence is low. - A pattern shift leads to a brief cool down late this week into the weekend with continued precipitation chances. Uncertainty remains, but an isolated strong to severe storm is possible again Friday. Much colder air could lead to wintry precipitation, although timing and type remain uncertain. && .UPDATE... Issued at 339 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Calm to light and variable winds are leading to another morning of patchy fog, including locally dense fog, mainly north of I-90 where skies have cleared. Fog should lift through the mid morning hours. Expect any visibility below 1/2 miles to be limited in scope, so not anticipating any headlines. But with guidance handling this a bit poorly, will keep an eye on trends. Showers and isolated storms continue to move north from NE this morning, but most areas are struggling to see precipitation reach the ground. For later today, SPC Day 1 outlook has shifted both the Marginal and Slight risks (levels 1 and 2 of 5, respectively) back west - with the Marginal into northeastern NE and northeastern IA and the Slight risk southeast of Sloan to Storm Lake line. Some uncertainty in severe risk depending on how far north the lower level front will lift through the day and if there is any morning convection across the area. Regardless, shear values and mid level lapse rates still appear supportive of large hail to ping pong ball size. Damaging wind gusts to 60 mph are also possible with stronger storms. Biggest question will be the instability, with most deterministic guidance limiting MUCAPE to around 1000 J/kg or less, which would temper the severe potential. A tornado cannot be ruled out if the boundary can sneak back into our area with low level shear and increased instability tied to that front. Greatest risk looks to be from 3 to 7 PM. CAMs do overall develop storms across NE and move them northeast into our area during this time. Any storm across the area will be capable of lightning, so keep an eye on the forecast if you have outdoor plans today/tonight. Another change to the forecast in the relatively shorter term was the issuance of a Fire Weather Watch for areas along and west of I- 29 for Thursday afternoon and evening. More details are below in the Fire Weather Section of this discussion, but breezy winds and very low humidity with warmer temperatures combine for near critical to critical fire conditions. Thursday is another day to use extreme caution to prevent fire start. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 233 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Radar is picking up on a stripe of showers extending from roughly Marshall, MN to Gregory, SD this afternoon, but most of this will not be reaching the ground due high cloud heights and dry air beneath said clouds. Scattered showers and storms will continue to develop off to our south and west over the next hour or so where the greater surface moisture is. Can't entirely rule out an elevated thunderstorm over northwest Iowa as soundings show a few hundred J/kg of CAPE lifted from around 750 mb this afternoon, but likely not enough for severe weather. However, small hail would be possible with mid level lapse rates around 7-7.5 C/km and 50-60 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear if a thunderstorm can develop. A boundary will be lifting northward across the region late tonight into Wednesday morning. The NAMNest is the fastest with this boundary arrival, bringing in storms to the Highway 20 corridor just before sunrise Wednesday, but this remains an outlier. What's more likely to occur is showers and storms not developing until the afternoon as the boundary continues drifting northward and instability increases due to daytime heating. Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible given mid level lapse rates greater than 8 C/km and bulk shear in the 45-55 kt range. The main threat with any of these afternoon storms would be large hail up to ping pong ball in size followed by damaging wind gusts to 60 mph. If we do get morning showers or storms tomorrow, then that may limit the ability for the atmosphere to recover in the afternoon, thus less afternoon instability. The best chance of an isolated severe storm Wednesday afternoon will be roughly along and east of a Spencer to Sioux City line. Any storms will push east of the area heading into Wednesday evening as the surface low and upper wave move out of the area. We are dry for Thursday, but this may come with the potential for critical fire danger in parts of the area. Southwesterly winds look to return for areas mainly along and west of I-29, which will help drop relative humidity values down to 25% and below Thursday afternoon. With temperatures in the 80s and winds gusting to 25 to 30 mph, a very high fire danger can be expected for most of the area. Uncertainty remains on how strong the winds will get and how far east these stronger winds make it, and if the grasses are starting to green up enough to prevent more widespread fire weather concerns. With that, held off on fire weather headlines for now until certainty grows. The main western US trough that has been helping to send all these impulses across the area over the past couple of days will finally move eastward heading into Friday, pushing a strong cold front into the area. Ahead of the front, warm and moister air will be favorable for thunderstorms, some of which could be strong to severe mainly east of I-29. Timing of the cold front will play a role in how much coverage of storms can be expected, with a faster passage meaning a lower threat and a slower passage leading to a greater threat of stronger storms. One thing is for more certain is the colder air that will follow this system, with lows expected to drop below freezing for most of the area by Saturday morning. This means some rain with this system may at least briefly turn to snow as the precipitation exits the area, but confidence is very low on this potential. Either way, expect much cooler temperatures heading into the Friday night through Sunday morning time frame. After this push of colder air, ridging aloft looks to return and thus a quick warming trend looks possible into early next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 616 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Patchy fog north of I-90 is leading to some localized MVFR conditions. Although we could see some IFR visibility mainly east of the Buffalo Ridge, chances are less than 30% through mid morning. Otherwise, showers and isolated storms may bring heavier rainfall and lower stratus, leading to periods of MVFR and possibly IFR conditions in thunderstorms. A stronger storm is possible from KOFK to KSPW later this afternoon through this evening. Have included mention of TSRA in a PROB30 group at KSUX, given the uncertainty in storm coverage. Winds through the period remain on the lighter side, with direction varying at times. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 333 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Although humidity values today fall to below 25% west of the James River, light southerly winds preclude any widespread concerns. Minimum RH values increase further east with light winds and scattered shower/storm chances, widespread elevated fire danger is not expected today. Attention turns to Thursday with temperatures climbing into the 80s. A dry day is expected, and much drier air moves into the region leading to minimum humidity values as low as 15% and only as high as around 30%. These factors along with strong southwesterly winds gusting to around 30 mph will lead to near critical to critical fire conditions as fuels remain dry. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued along and west of I-29 from noon to 8 PM, where the strongest winds and lowest humidity coincide. Confidence is low in the potential for near critical fire conditions Friday due to a cold front moving through Thursday into Friday. This timing impacts temperatures and there may be some showers with some uncertainty in the precipitation type. Northwesterly winds on Friday will be stronger than Thursday, gusting to around 40 mph. However, RH values are expected to be near or exceed 35%, which with cooler temperatures and precipitation, may temper widespread concerns. Breezy and cooler weather Saturday may lead to elevated concerns, but confidence is low. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for SDZ038>040-050-052>071. MN...None. IA...None. NE...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for NEZ013-014. && $$ UPDATE...SG DISCUSSION...Samet AVIATION...SG FIRE WEATHER...SG  160 FXUS63 KLSX 151124 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 624 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm spring weather continues through the end of the week with a sharp cool down behind a front this weekend. - Thunderstorms, some potentially severe, are expected today and again late Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Thursday Afternoon) Issued at 301 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Our area remains in an axis of moist, unstable air within southwesterly flow around high pressure off the southeast US coast. Yesterday's thunderstorm activity played out about as expected, with the primary focus being at the boundaries of this unstable air near the front to the north and the dryline to the west. Remnants of this activity may bring some rain to parts of the area this morning. A dying MCS over southwest Missouri will likely bring some light rain to central Missouri over the next few hours, but will likely be drying up by the time it reaches the St Louis metro around dawn. The activity on the front to our north continues to send outflow southward into northern Missouri but is showing signs of lessening convective development on its outflow and may not make it much into our area this morning. As this morning's showers dissipate we'll see temperatures warm well above normal again today. If we get more breaks in the clouds it could warm even further into the 80s, providing more fuel for thunderstorms later in the day, while more extensive cloud cover taking longer to dissipate would hold temperatures down and limit instability. Meanwhile, a subtle wave currently entering Texas will translate quickly northeast today embedded in the broader southeasterly mid level jet. This wave will bring more lift into our area today than we've seen in the last several days, giving us greater confidence that thunderstorms will develop locally during the afternoon and evening hours. A steadily weakening cap through the day will also allow access to surface based instability during the time around peak heating this afternoon, setting the stage for the most widespread thunderstorm threat locally in this air mass. The strong flow aloft in the jet will contribute to strong deep layer shear across the area today, so any storms that form are expected to take the form of supercells, potentially splitting supercells, with primarily a threat for large hail and locally damaging winds. Storms may eventually merge into clusters with a greater wind threat. This warm sector activity fades after peak heating this evening, but another round of storms is likely along the front to our northwest as it makes its way southeast through our region during the evening hours. This will be driven in part by low level convergence on the front supported by the passage of the primary shortwave trough aloft which helps to finally drive this front southeast through our area. This front doesn't offer much of a change in wind direction, but we do see a modest drop in dewpoints behind it, from the mid 60s today to the mid 50s tomorrow. That's enough to reduce our rain chances on Thursday behind the front, though some showers may linger mainly in the morning in southeast Missouri into southern Illinois. The severe weather threat for Thursday afternoon similarly shifts southeast toward the Ohio Valley. Despite the passage of the weak cold front, more sun on Thursday allows us to warm into the 80s again across most of the region. Kimble && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 301 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 The next trough to affect our weather is currently near British Columbia making its presence felt across the Pacific Northwest. It will track through the Northern Rockies on Thursday before emerging out into the Plains on Friday. This trough is much more amplified than the last one and will set up a much stronger frontal system stretching from Minnesota to Texas on Friday. Moisture return ahead of the front re-establishes an unstable air mass beneath strong southwesterly flow aloft setting up the potential for another round of severe weather through the middle of the country. Latest guidance is in good agreement on the timing of this front with the focus for severe thunderstorm development to our northwest from eastern Kansas to northern Iowa. Although initially supercells, wind flow parallel to the boundary suggests storms will rapidly coalesce into a line with this line pushing east through the evening along or ahead of the front. This doesn't look to arrive into our area until later in the evening when instability will be decreasing. Thus the threat in our area takes on a strong northwest to southeast gradient as the line of storms eventually runs out of good instability. The primary threats with this line will be damaging winds, although QLCS tornadoes will also be possible if portions of the line can surge forward and become better aligned with the low level shear. The air mass behind this front will be much cooler than we've seen lately as it has its origins in the Arctic. Dewpoints drop from the 60s to the 20s and daytime highs within this air mass likely only top out in the 50s to low 60s (5 to 10 degrees below normal). Uncertainty on how quickly this front moves through Saturday morning leads to a wide spread in guidance for high temperatures on Saturday, but the warmer end highs (near 70) will likely be in the morning with cooler air blowing in through the day. Nighttime lows drop into the 30s, but persistent winds likely keep us just above frost or freeze levels. A sunny Sunday will begin to moderate the air mass further with highs more likely to reach 60 area wide. The warm up continues further Monday into Tuesday as southerly winds return and temperatures push back into the 70s beneath a ridge aloft arriving from the west. Rain chances remain low until the middle to end of next week as the ridge shifts east and exposes us to more potential troughing influences. Kimble && .AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Thursday Morning) Issued at 620 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Southerly winds are frequently gusty today beneath a thick mid and high level cloud cover. The main forecast issue will be thunderstorms as an unstable air mass is expected to lead to a couple of rounds of thunderstorms across the area today. Although we are favoring the mid afternoon for an area of thunderstorms from central MO to the St Louis metro, considerable uncertainty exists on whether these storms will form and if so where (and when). Another round of thunderstorms is more likely along a subtle cold front advancing into the region from northwest to southeast this evening. While those are the primary windows for thunderstorms today, we can't rule out storms at any time between now and early Thursday morning. Kimble && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX  594 FXUS65 KPUB 151124 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 524 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and seasonal today, with spotty elevated fire danger - Breezy and warm Thursday with the return of widespread critical fire weather conditions - Next storm system brings rain and snow showers, along with gusty winds for Friday into Friday night, followed by widespread sub-freezing temperatures Saturday and Sunday mornings && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 1247 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Upper trough will lift out of Colorado this morning, with slowly building ridge across the state by late day. Main concern for today will be potential for some spotty elevated fire weather conditions, mainly in gap flow favored regions and across the upper Arkansas Valley. At this point, flow aloft doesn't appear strong enough to drive widespread gusts above 25 mph as 7h winds are under 20 kts, so will run with no highlights and just a mention of brief elevated conditions in the fire weather forecast. Max temps today will run at least in the vicinity of seasonal values, though most locations will end up a few degf on the warmer side of averages by late afternoon. On Thursday, upper ridge migrates eastward into the High Plains, with increasing swly mid/upper flow across CO as next upper trough digs into the nrn Great Basin. While mid-level flow isn't terribly impressive (25-35 kts at 7h), surface gradient looks favorable for gusty winds, while humidity drops off to below 10 percent in spots by afternoon as deep mixing develops. Should have enough wind to justify the current fire weather highlight, though have started to see some weaker gusts on the plains in some of the 00z guidance, so have kept it a watch for now. Max temps will climb back into the 70s/80s on the plains with deep mixing, with 60s valleys and 50s/60s mountains. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 1247 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Upper trough swings through the central Rockies Friday/Friday night, with tend toward a faster system continuing in most 00z deterministic models. As a result, cold frontal passage on the plains has sped up, with a few solutions bringing the front through the plains Fri morning, while majority of models/ensembles point toward a slightly later passage in the afternoon. Deep wly flow ahead of the front could produce some critical fire weather conditions on the plains early Fri, especially south of the Arkansas River, though confidence is frontal timing is low enough to preclude any highlights at this point. Over the mountains, snow showers start early Fri morning along the Continental Divide, spreading eastward across the remaining mountains and high terrain through the day. If the front is quick enough, could see showers into the Pikes Peak region/Pueblo County Friday afternoon, with a thunderstorm possible as lapse rates steepen. Rain changes to snow quickly even along I-25 late Fri/Fri evening, with some moderate snow accums (2-4 inches in Teller County) forecast, and won't be surprised to see at least some light accums along the Palmer Divide/nrn COS as well. Forcing for precip drops off quickly the farther south you go across the region, and many areas south of the Arkansas River will see little or no rain/snow. Upward motion diminishes quickly Fri night as trough moves rapidly away, and expect most if not all precip to end by midnight across the area. Winds die off and skies clear overnight, leading to widespread sub-freezing temperatures Sat morning, with teens mountains and valleys, 20s on the plains. Cool and dry on Saturday, and will ignore slight chance NBM pops Sat afternoon, as air mass looks too dry to support convection. After another sub-freezing start Sun morning, warming trend begins from Sun afternoon into early next week, with mainly dry conditions and temperatures back to well above seasonal levels. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 522 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions anticipated across the forecast area over the next 24 hours, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS. Westerly surface flow expected to pick up at KALS through the afternoon and early evening hrs, with gusts up to around 25 kts. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for COZ220>222-224>237. && $$ SHORT TERM...PETERSEN LONG TERM...PETERSEN AVIATION...MOORE  153 FXUS64 KSJT 151124 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 624 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorm chances will persist into this afternoon, with a threat for severe storms each day. - A cold front is expected on Saturday, bringing low rain chances and considerably cooler temperatures for the upcoming weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1254 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Complex of thunderstorms continue across the Edwards Plateau early this morning, tracking northeast. This may affect portions of the Northwest Hill Country and will continue to watch it and update POPs ahead of it as needed this morning. For the rest of the day, a very similar setup to what we have seen on Monday and Tuesday. Unstable air mass across the area for the afternoon with CAPE values at or above 2500 J/kg. Dryline will become established and slide east to near the western borders of the Big Country and Concho Vally by mid/late afternoon. Again, convergence along the dryline is relatively weak and there is limited upper level support. If a storm can develop and sustain itself, it will have plenty of instability to work with and large hail will be possible. But trying to pin down if/where along the dryline a storm will actually develop and how widespread anything may be remains the uncertainty. Similarly to the yesterday, model blend POPs just seem excessively high considering the coverage seen in pretty much every CAM. Will knock down POPs across the board down into the 30-40% range. POPs can always be updated and increased later today if storms start to develop. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 1254 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Looks like mainly quiet weather for Thursday across the area as weak upper level ridging will be in control. The next strong storm system with a sharper dryline will move into the Central and Southern Plains Friday. Looks like the more organized severe weather will remain north of our area. However, isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across west central Texas during the late afternoon into Friday night. A cold front is south of the area Saturday morning with cooler and mainly dry weather this weekend into early next week. However, return southerly flow may result in a low chance of showers and a few thunderstorms early next week. Temperatures will be slightly above normal this week. Please keep up with the latest weather information as the month of April is severe weather season. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 620 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A mix of low, mid, and high clouds continue to stream across West Central Texas this morning. MVFR and even some IFR cigs are patchy and this will likely continue into the mid/late morning hours. May take until noon, but even the southern and southeastern terminals will eventually become VFR. Models continue to struggle with if/when/where convection may redevelop across the area this afternoon, and until this becomes a little more certain, will leave out of the terminal forecast for now. South to southeast winds will prevail and will continue to be gusty at times. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 85 63 88 66 / 40 10 10 10 San Angelo 86 62 88 65 / 30 10 10 10 Junction 81 61 87 61 / 50 10 10 0 Brownwood 80 62 86 64 / 40 10 10 10 Sweetwater 87 62 90 66 / 30 0 10 10 Ozona 83 62 85 64 / 20 10 10 10 Brady 80 62 85 64 / 50 10 10 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION...07  812 FXUS63 KBIS 151130 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 630 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy fog is over portions of south central into the James River Valley through the mid morning. - Warm and dry today, with highs this afternoon from the mid 60s to mid 70s. - Wide range in temperatures from northwest to southeast Thursday as a cold front pushes into the state. - Turning much colder with periods of rain and snow Thursday night through Friday, with medium to high chances for light accumulations of snow. - Well below normal temperatures Friday through Saturday, followed by a gradual warm-up into early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 630 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Generally quiet weather is found across western and central North Dakota this morning. Isolated showers from earlier overnight have generally diminished. In their wake, patchy fog has started to develop over portions of south central North Dakota into the James River Valley. An interrogation of BUFKIT soundings indicates that this fog is likely to be fairly shallow. Fog is generally expected to lift through the mid morning as the sun rises and the winds begin to pick up. Overall, the forecast remains on track. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 305 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A weak 500mb shortwave traversing the northern Plains this morning has helped propagate light rainfall across portions of south central North Dakota, main where it overlaps a weak surface trough. These light showers will continue to exit to the east through the mid morning. Otherwise, patchy fog is possible across portions of eastern North Dakota into the James River Valley, as well as in the Turtle Mountains area. Lows are from the mid 30s east to upper 30s to lower 40s west and central. Near zonal to increasingly southwesterly flow is expected over the northern Plains today as a closed Pacific trough moves across the southern Canadian Prairies. With this pattern highs well above normal are expected this afternoon, from the mid 60s northwest to mid 70s southeast. Mainly clear skies are expected southwest and central through the morning and afternoon, though cloud cover will increase from northwest to Southeast through the late afternoon and evening ahead of an approach low complex associated with the aforementioned Pacific trough. Low chances for precpitation (10 to 30 percent) will develop across the far northwest and far north central this evening into early tonight, as a shortwave perturbation ejecting off this trough slides up the southwesterly flow pattern. Lows tonight are forecast from the upper 20s to lower 30s north, to lower to mid 40s south. By mid morning Thursday, the main wave of precpitation associated with the low complex is expected to start moving into the northwest, increasing to become likely (50 to 75 percent) across much of the southwest and central) late Thursday afternoon and evening. With the timing of the associated cold front delayed until later in the afternoon, highs on Thursday are expected to remain above normal in the 60s to mid 70s across the south, while dropping to well below normal in the mid 30s to lower 40s across the far north. With the lingering warmth across much of the forecast area, precpitation is expected to fall initially as rain, before transitioning overnight to a rain-snow mix, then all snow, as temperatures drop. With short term CAMs staring to contribute to the ensemble, the NBM has dialed into a slightly slower evolution of the system as whole, allowing for lightly accumulating snowfall to be possible across much of the forecast area Thursday night through Friday. The greatest source of uncertainty between ensemble members appears to be the relative strength of the trough as it crosses the northern Plains, which has ramification on overall QPF and thus overall snowfall accumulation. A slight majority of members (55 percent) favor a shallower trough, while would help limit snowfall across the southwest and south central to around a dusting at most, up to around an inch or so in the far north central. A minority cluster also exists (45 percent of members), which advertises a slightly deeper or close trough over the forecast area through early Friday morning. In this scenario, the potential for portions of central North Dakota as far south as I- 94 to exceed an inch of snowfall is higher (30 to 50 percent), while portions of the far north central could exceed 2 inches overall (15 to 30 percent chance). In either scenario, overall impacts due to snowfall are expected to be limited. Otherwise, breezy to windy conditions are expected both Thursday and Friday as the pressure gradient across the northern Plains tightens with the passage of the low complex, though the potential for any sort of wind headlines during this period remains very low. With the much cooler airmass over the northern Plains on Friday, well below seasonable normal highs in the 30s to lower 40s are forecast. Warming and dry weather is then expected through the weekend and into early next week as upper level ridging builds in across the region, with highs climbing back into the 60s and 70s by Monday. Long term deterministic models hint at the breakdown of the upper level ridge and a return to a more active pattern by the midweek as another deep pacific trough moves into the western CONUS, though there remains significant disagreement between ensemble members regarding timing. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 630 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Mainly VFR ceilings and visibility can be found to begin the 12Z TAF period. Patchy ground fog has developed across portions of south central North Dakota this morning, and has briefly impacted visibilities at KJMS. Have included a TEMPO group for 3SM vis at KJMS through the mid morning, as it is expected to be fairly variable. Later this evening, chances for light rain increases across the northwest, before diminishing overnight. Have included a PROB30 group for KXWA with this update. Tonight into into Thursday, low level wind shear is possible across portions of the west and south central. Have included mentions of such as KDIK and KBIS with this update. Confidence is too low to include mentions of KXWA. Light south winds around 5 to 10 knots this morning will turn west southwesterly through the afternoon, strengthening to around 10 to 15 knots and gusting as high as 20 knots across the north. Winds will then diminish through the evening, turning cyclonically around a low pressure center that will move across the forecast area overnight before reorganizing out of the northwest by the end of the TAF period. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Adam DISCUSSION...Adam AVIATION...Adam  937 FXUS64 KTSA 151131 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 631 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 627 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Severe storms remain possible Wednesday afternoon and evening. - Warm, humid, and breezy southerly flow continues for much of the rest of this week. - Another chance of showers and thunderstorms, some potentially severe, is expected Friday into Saturday before cooler air arrives behind a cold front. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Wednesday) Issued at 1137 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A warm and humid airmass will remain over the area through Wednesday, with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected through the day as an upper trough approaches from the west. Severe storms will again be possible Wednesday afternoon and evening, with the extent of the severe weather threat largely determined by how much festering convection remains earlier in the day, which may limit the amount of instability. Afternoon high temperatures Wednesday will mostly be in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 1137 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Shower and storm chances will continue into early Thursday, with the severe weather threat waning with time later Wednesday night. Warm and humid conditions will continue Thursday, but additional storm development Thursday afternoon and evening appears unlikely due to subsidence behind the departing upper trough. Another upper trough will move across the plains late Friday into Saturday, with an accompanying cold front moving across the area Friday night and early Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms will likely accompany the front, with severe weather possible late Friday afternoon into the night, mainly in the form of damaging winds. Much cooler and drier air will filter into the area behind the front this weekend, with near normal temperatures returning for the first part of next week. Rain chances look to return around the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 630 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 MVFR cigs will trend toward VFR by midday. Scattered afternoon thunder will be covered by prob30 groups at the various sites. Eventually, the storms grow upscale and shift east into western AR this evening. It is here where VCTS and TEMPO groups were used to convey the threat. Storm chances wane toward the end of the forecast. MVFR cigs will probably return to many sites as well. Lacy && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 78 62 85 67 / 70 60 10 10 FSM 80 65 85 66 / 70 80 30 10 MLC 78 64 85 67 / 80 60 0 10 BVO 79 59 84 65 / 70 60 0 0 FYV 77 60 81 63 / 70 80 30 10 BYV 77 61 80 64 / 70 80 30 0 MKO 78 61 84 66 / 80 60 10 10 MIO 76 60 81 65 / 80 80 10 0 F10 78 61 85 66 / 80 50 0 10 HHW 78 63 83 65 / 70 70 0 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...30  703 FXUS63 KEAX 151133 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 633 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...12z Aviation Update... .KEY MESSAGES... * Active weather pattern continues with multiple additional chances for strong to severe thunderstorms, today/Wednesday and Friday. - Today/Wednesday: SPC Day 1 Slight Risk - Friday: SPC Day 3 Enhanced Risk * Warm temperatures (upper 70s to low/mid 80s) are expected to persist through the work week, then cooler and drier conditions expected this weekend and into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 344 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 What looked to be a fairly potent setup for strong to severe storms in the area yesterday evening and into the overnight tended to struggle mightily. By the evening, moisture rapidly surged northward toward and into portions of Nebraska and Iowa and the dryline rapidly retreated westward. Further SW, convective initiation ended up quite a bit further south (well into Oklahoma) than prior expectations. With the otherwise overall lack of synoptic level support/lift, this resulted in initial clusters of strong to severe storms over Nebraska/Iowa that just clipped northern Missouri and little to no precipitation into southern portions of the CWA with trajectories keeping activity into Springfield's area. This through about 3am. As of this writing, elevated non-severe convection continues to drift eastward across northern Missouri, with no expectation for anything more. Additionally, elevated convection is now seen blossoming over south-central to SE Kansas, along the nose of strong ~850mb moisture advection and the general LLJ. Of note, HRRR runs have not tended to handle this new KS convection well with all but the most recent run or two holding off on anything budding until just NE of the KC Metro around/after 10z. This leads to limited confidence in convective trends to round out the overnight and into the morning/commute hours. Conceptually, given what is transpiring and the environment depicted on SPC Mesoanalysis, tend to expect this scattered elevated convection to lift into the forecast area from SW and potentially increase in general coverage as it does so. Fortunately, soundings (ACARS and model) depict a reestablished cap which will help drastically limit top end potential. If anything, these thunderstorms may further prime some locations for possible local flooding or river issues later today/tonight. This general activity should drift NE through the morning and yield a mostly cloudy and moist/humid day. Normally morning convection and cloud cover would give rise to recovery concerns, but persistent moderate to strong moist low level flow should have no issue re-priming and mixing the area. Especially with moderate to steep mid-level lapse rates remaining in place. So, how do we fell about this afternoon and evening given what how forecasts have gone the last couple of days? That is a fair question. A notable difference today is that more substantial/supportive synoptic lift approaches as well as a more progressive frontal boundary as the western trough continues to kick out into and across the Plains with its attendant surface low. So, convective initiation is probably least of the uncertainties, overall. Instead, questions tend to be more around when does convection first fire off this afternoon, is any of it discrete/ahead of the cold front, how quickly it may grow upscale/cluster/linear, etc. Those timing and, more importantly, storm mode answers will determine the most prevalent threats. As you would imagine, discrete convection would carry an all hazards threat, especially large hail and damaging winds. Right movers would potentially yield very supportive low level inflow that could yield the best opportunity for a tornado or two. Clustering or more linear modes, including along frontal passage, would transition threats more toward damaging winds and occasional hail. For reference, broad set of guidance suggests >2000 J/kg MLCAPE, >40-45 kts deep shear. If the cold front was less progressive, mean wind/deep shear orientation would be more concerning for training storms/flooding issues, fortunately that does not set up to be the case here. Activity as early as around 1pm and up to around the evening commute in the KC Metro and 9-10pm for eastern parts of the forecast area. Brief break in activity Thursday as the upper trough moves east and a bit drier air mass moves in, but temperatures remain seasonally warm in the 80s with southerly flow quickly returning. This helps set the table too for Friday which will be yet another chance, quite possibly our best during this stretch, for severe thunderstorm activity. By Friday, another western CONUS trough, currently moving down the coast of British Columbia/approaching Washington/PNW, will be pushing across the Intermountain West and induce rounds of Lee Cyclogenesis along Wyoming and Colorado Front Ranges. Conceptually this checks most the boxes as it is a pretty deep/sizable trough that begins to pivot/take on a neutral to negative tilt across the region. Robust/deep southerly flow ahead of this too will push surface dew points back into the mid 60s and steep mid-level lapse rates may push SB/MLCAPE values >2500-3000 J/kg. Wind profiles again look favorable for an all hazards situation with discrete convection. Synoptic scale lift support, frontal passage, and potential jet position start to check of additional boxes as well. Suffice it to say while you cannot necessarily hang your hat on the details just yet, Friday is a day to pay attention to. Bolstered by the previous Day 4 30% and the New Day 3 Enhanced by the SPC for much/most of the area. In the wake of this Friday system/threat, a period of quieter weather and cooler/more seasonable temperatures looks to settle in as NW mid-upper level flow and eventual height rises/ridging dominates. This should be through the weekend and at least into early next week before any notable precipitation chances attempt to return. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 629 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 With scattered showers/convection having moved off to the E/NE already this morning, concerns within the TAF period revolve around MVFR ceilings this morning, continued gusty SW winds, and storm coverage and timing this afternoon and evening. MVFR ceilings are expanding and advecting in from the S and appear likely to overspread the sites within the next hour or two. This will continue into the late morning or early afternoon before diurnal mixing should lift back to low VFR ranges. Convection timing has varied a bit among guidance, but appears most likely between from mid-afteroon into the evening. Say as early as 20z through 00z among the TAF sites. Ahead of storms, winds potentially gust up to 30 kts among the KC Metro sites, and a handful of kts less up toward STJ. VFR conditions and lighter winds prevail after 00z. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Curtis AVIATION...Curtis  634 FXUS63 KMPX 151134 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 634 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mostly dry through early Friday. A few showers are possible today across southeastern MN. Temperatures warm into the 70s or lower 80s Thursday. - A very strong cold front will push east through the area on Friday. Severe thunderstorms are likely to develop on the front late Friday afternoon east of I-35. - Much colder air for the weekend with a chance for snow showers Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 346 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Areas of fog have formed across western MN last evening. It is having a difficult time sustaining itself for long at any given location and appears to be shallow ground fog. A thicker bank of fog and stratus to the north is trying to work south into central MN, but is also not making much progress. High clouds from convection in Iowa are streaming northeast across eastern MN and WI. This should keep fog from becoming too dense or widespread there, although the stratus is making slightly better progress building south in WI. Any fog will burn off quickly after sunrise. A short wave will lift northeast across Iowa this afternoon. It will be the focus for more convection later today, although much of that will remain well to the southeast. There may be a few showers on the northern fringe of the system that can reach southern MN and western WI, but rainfall amounts will be negligible. Southerly flow increases Thursday as a deep trough approaches from the Rockies. A nice bump up in temperatures is expected with low to possibly mid 80s across western MN and 70s across eastern MN and WI. Moisture will begin to advect back north, but the deepest moisture won't arrive until late Friday immediately ahead of a strong cold front. Much of the day will be strongly capped thanks to mid level lapse rates nearing 9 C/km and a relatively dry boundary layer. The cap will gradually erode as low level moisture increases mid to late afternoon. The front will spark scattered thunderstorms along it, likely along or east of I-35 by late afternoon. Initial storms may be splitting supercells given strong unidirectional shear profiles and the likelihood that some parts of the cap may remain. Not too long after initiation, additional activity is likely to form and congeal into a squall line. This evolution may take place southeast of the CWA depending on the timing of the front (which is a little more progressive than before) and when the CAP does break. Nonetheless, there is a risk for severe thunderstorms late Friday afternoon and early evening, mostly in WI. Highs should reach the 70s east of the front Friday afternoon, with temperatures plummeting 30+ degrees into the 30s and 40s by early evening. Moist cyclonic flow for late Friday night and Saturday still brings the potential for some snow showers, but models have trended decidedly drier in the snow department. Highs Saturday may remain in the 30s. Cold temperatures will be short-lived with the trough modifying by Sunday and ridging potentially returning early next week. There remains spread in the guidance with how strong the push toward ridging will be and we may just maintain northwest flow. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 634 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Fog has become more widespread across western and central MN early this morning. A bank of fog and stratus is still advancing slowly south across east central MN, but expecting it to stall and to start dissipating soon with the sun rising. Only EAU, MKT, and MSP look to avoid IFR conditions through mid morning with the rest of the TAFs currently experiencing fog or will shortly. KMSP...Still appears unlikely the cloud/fog bank to the north will make it as far south as MSP, but on its current trajectory, it would start to arrive around 1330Z. Will continue to monitor. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR. Wind S 5-10kts. FRI...VFR early, then chc MVFR/TSRA in the afternoon. Wind SE 10-15 kts shifting NW 10-15G25kts. SAT...MVFR cigs. Chance IFR/-SN. Wind NW 15G25-30kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for Chippewa- Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Pope-Renville-Stevens-Swift- Yellow Medicine. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Borghoff AVIATION...Borghoff  217 FXUS65 KPIH 151134 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 534 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Impactful Frontal Passage: A cold front will sweep through the region tonight, causing snow levels to plummet to valley floors by Thursday morning. - Winter Weather Headlines: Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for the central mountains, the Island Park area, and the Bear River Range, where the heaviest snow is expected. - Wind Advisory Today: Strong winds will develop this afternoon, with an advisory in effect for the Arco Desert and Lemhi Highlands. - Hard Freeze Potential: A Freeze Watch has been issued for the Magic Valley, Snake Plain, Arco Desert and Shoshone zones for Friday morning with a widespread Hard Freeze looking likely. - Strong Warming Trend: Following the midweek cold snap, a significant warm-up is forecast for the weekend, with temperatures rising well above seasonal norms by Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 224 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 An active weather period is now underway across Eastern Idaho as a robust Pacific system moves inland. Early morning satellite imagery captures an increase in cloud cover, with precipitation expected to overspread the central mountains within the next few hours before expanding across the remainder of the region throughout the day. Ahead of the cold front, southwesterly flow will tighten the pressure gradient, causing winds to reach Advisory levels across the Arco Desert and Lemhi Highlands. Elsewhere, breezy conditions will prevail with gusts generally holding in the 20 to 25 mph range. Precipitation today will largely manifest as rain below 6,500 feet, while the higher terrain begins to see light snow accumulations. The primary forecast concern arrives tonight into early Thursday morning as a potent cold front blasts through Eastern Idaho. This transition will trigger a drastic drop in snow levels, bringing a changeover from rain to snow even for the lowest valley floors. Perhaps the most notable development in recent model data is a strong signal for a convergence band of precipitation to develop over the Snake Plain Thursday evening. This feature has resulted in an upward adjustment of forecast snowfall totals for the Snake Plain and surrounding areas. Meanwhile, Winter Weather Advisories continue for the higher terrain of the central mountains and eastern highlands, where travel impacts are most likely. As the system exits to the east on Friday, the focus shifts to a significant hard freeze. A Freeze Watch has been issued for the growing regions of Eastern Idaho to account for the frigid air mass settling over the area Friday morning. This will be particularly impactful for any early-season blossoms or crops that have emerged during recent warm spells. The outlook for the weekend is much more favorable, as high pressure builds back over the Intermountain West. A drastic warm-up is forecast to begin Saturday, with temperatures climbing well above seasonal normals by Sunday and continuing into early next week. Conditions should remain dry through the weekend before low-end precipitation chances return late Monday or Tuesday. While another weather system is poised to impact the area early next week, model guidance remains split on the timing and intensity, leaving significant uncertainty in the long-range forecast. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 529 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Expecting conditions to deteriorate over the course of the day as a strong weather system moves through the region. Winds will be gusty in the valley terminals today, 20-30 kts, with precip overspreading the region from west to east. KSUN will be the first to see precip before moving into the rest of the area by early afternoon. A strong cold front will move through later this evening and overnight dropping temps and snow levels to valley floors. Expect precip type to change to snow later this evening and overnight. When it does, more predominant MVFR is likely although some occasional MVFR is expected over the course of the day with rain showers. CIGs will continue to lower throughout the day - VFR early will give way to low-end VFR or MVFR CIGs late in the period. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for IDZ051>055. Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ052-067. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM MDT Friday for IDZ060-066. Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT Thursday for IDZ071>074. && $$ DISCUSSION...McKaughan AVIATION...McKaughan  887 FXUS63 KGRB 151134 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 634 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon and evening. 1+ inch hail is the main severe hazard. - Additional rainfall will continue to exacerbate any ongoing flooding. If thunderstorms train over areas that have seen multiple inches of rain the last two days flash flooding would be likely. - Minor to moderate river flooding is ongoing or forecast to occur on several area rivers. Expect many rivers to rise this week due to additional rain and runoff from Upper Michigan, with the greatest impacts expected on the Menominee River, where some locations may see major flooding during the mid to late part of the week. - Addtioanl rounds of rain and thunderstorms are expected Friday through this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 240 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Short Term...Today...Tonight...and Thursday Fog this morning.. Dense fog with visibilities as low as 1/4 mile has spread across much of the lake and bayshore counties overnight, while dense fog is more patchy further west. The coverage of fog will continue to expand over the next few hours before fog starts to dissipate. Fog will be quicker to burn off across central WI compared to eastern and northern WI. Areas along the lake and bay as well as far northern WI may see fog linger into the early afternoon. Rain and Thunderstorm Chances Today... A stalled frontal boundary snaking from east-central WI back toward central IA will continue to spur on isolated showers this morning, however, most locations should remain dry. Chance for precipitation increases again this afternoon as a surface low lifts into the region. Main concern with this next round of precipitation is how additional rainfall will exacerbate ongoing flooding or lead to new flood concerns given soils are saturated and rivers and streams continue to run high. REFS LPMM shows another 0.25-0.5" of rain with this system through Thursday morning south of a Stevens Point to to Marinette line. However, if more persistent convection is able to develop over this area could see rainfall totals closer to REFS 90th percentiles of 1-1.5" in localized areas. If those higher end amounts do play out in areas with ongoing flooding or areas that have had flooding issues over the past two days flash flooding would be likely. The severe storm threat late this afternoon and evening is more muted compared to the past two days. Forecast soundings do show elevated MUCAPEs of 200-400 J/kg late this afternoon along with 50-60 kts of unidirectional 0-6km shear. This may lead to a marginal risk for 1+ inch hail across part of central and east- central WI. The risk for damaging wind gusts or tornados is very low given a stable boundary layer. Long Term...Thursday Night Through Tuesday The latest ensemble means continue to indicate a break in this incredibly wet pattern is forecast this weekend into the middle of next week. Until this time range, the final system to move through the region arrives late Friday afternoon and departs on Saturday. A brief lull in the rainfall is likely on Thursday night into Friday morning as the region will reside between systems. However, that changes by late Friday afternoon when a 35 to 45 kt low level jet advects precipitable water values up to the 99 percentile into the northern Mississippi Valley. Models show precipitation is forecast into expand on Friday afternoon as large scale ascent and moisture increases over the course of the day. Instability increases between 400-700 j/kg on Friday night when the surface low pressure and pwat axis moves through. Because instability peaks at night, the severe risk will likely be muted somewhat due to a capping inversion. But given the wind profiles and some instability, small hail and gusty winds in excess of 40 mph appear possible. Greater concern revolves around rainfall and flooding potential. Probabilities for a 1/2 inch of rain ranges from 40-60% while probabilities for 1 inch of rain ranges from 5-20%. So, most likely looking at precipitation of 1/2 to 1 inch of rain, with locally higher amounts where thunderstorms occur. Given the moisture laded soils, the most flood prone areas may see renewed flooding potential. After the system passes, much colder air arrives on Saturday. A change over of precip from rain to snow remains possible. The probability of a 1/2 inch of snow over Vilas county ranges from 20 to 40% on Saturday, so little to no impacts are expected. But gusty winds in excess of 30 mph appear possible. Thereafter, high pressure will move across the region late in the weekend into early next week. This should result in a period of little to no precipitation into Wednesday. && .AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance Issued at 634 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Blanket LIFR conditions across the region early this morning as low status and dense fog have develop across much of the region overnight. Expect vsbys to gradually improve this morning. Cigs across central and northern WI are expected to rise mid to late morning and become MVFR, however, further east persistent easterly flow off the lake along with ample low-level moisture will keep LIFR/IFR cigs across east-central WI for much of the day. Isolated showers may lift into central and east-central WI this morning, but should have little aviation impact. Showers are expected to become more scattered this afternoon along with the development of a few isolated thunderstorms south of a ISW to GRB line. Any thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavier rain and lower vsbys as well as hail up to 1". Thunderstorm active will wane this evening, but scatter showers may linger across the region through Thursday morning as a surface low exits the region. Along with the rain overnight expect another round of IFR/LIFR status and areas of fog overnight into Thursday morning. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 240 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Widespread flooding continues across parts of central and east- central WI, where flood warning remain in place, due to multiple rounds of thunderstorms that have produced 3 to 6 inches of rain over the last 48 hours. Extensive road closure remain where the heaviest rain has fallen. Multiple dams have also been over topped at times due to high flows on rivers and streams. Runoff from snow melt in Upper Michigan is also still expected to bring moderate to major flooding on the Menominee River, especially during the mid to late part of the week. If you live near a river or stream, keep a close eye on water levels this week and monitor the latest Flood Warnings from the National Weather Service in Green Bay. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for WIZ011>013- 019>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074. && $$ DISCUSSION.....GK/MPC AVIATION.......GK HYDROLOGY......GK  213 FXUS64 KOUN 151136 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 636 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 631 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Strong to severe thunderstorms possible Wednesday and Friday. - Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions will return several days this week, especially across portions of northwestern and far western Oklahoma. - Dry and cooler weather this weekend. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Wednesday) Issued at 149 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Early this morning, a few elevated showers and thunderstorms are moving across southwestern and central Oklahoma. This activity may produce small hail, brief heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds. A few global models continue develop more widespread showers and thunderstorms across parts of south central and southeastern Oklahoma before sunrise, while CAMs keep coverage isolated to widely scattered. Ceiling heights across south central and southeastern Oklahoma are roughly 4-6k feet and soundings suggest about 1000 J/kg of elevated CAPE. For now will side with more isolated to widely scattered coverage through sunrise. Later this afternoon, at least scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along a near a dryline. The dryline will be located farther east than Tuesday, so perhaps initial storm develop will be along and east of an Enid to Lawton and Seymour, Texas line. It's possible that upscale growth will occur quickly to an MCS or line segments. This would limit the large hail risk to the first few hours of development with an evolution to strong winds, smaller hail, and heavy rainfall. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday night through Friday night) Issued at 149 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A trailing shortwave trough is expected to move across the Panhandles and western Oklahoma late Wednesday evening into early Thursday morning. Although a majority of the convection will be confined to the eastern third of Oklahoma by late Wednesday evening, some lingering precipitation is possible. With mainly dry conditions expected on Thursday, focus will turn to fire weather conditions across western Oklahoma during the afternoon. Temperatures will be very warm to hot, and afternoon humidity will fall to around 10 to 15 percent across the western third of the state including the adjacent area of northern Texas. A southwesterly wind will be a little breezy but wind gusts are expected to be in the 25-30 mph range. Thursday evening and overnight, a shortwave trough will approach in southwesterly flow aloft. This may result widely scattered showers and perhaps thunderstorms. Most of this activity should be northeast of the area by mid to late morning. By mid afternoon Friday, a dryline is expected to sharpen across western Oklahoma, as an upper trough approaches the northern and central Plains. With mid to upper 60s dewpoint in place, instability will increase to around 3000 J/kg. So if a few storms develop along the dry, supercells are likely with a risk of very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes. By early to mid evening, a strong cold front will begin to move across parts of western and northern Oklahoma. Thunderstorms will likely develop along the front with a risk of damaging winds and hail. The surface cold front will clear southeastern Oklahoma by early Saturday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 149 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Northerly winds behind a cold front will continue to usher in a much drier airmass on Saturday. An elevated frontal boundary across south central and southeastern Oklahoma may result in scattered showers through the late morning/early afternoon. With portions of western Oklahoma missing out on the recent rainfall, elevated fire weather conditions will be possible Saturday afternoon, especially across northwestern Oklahoma where fuels remain receptive to fire. With a clear sky expected and light winds, portions of northern and western Oklahoma may see a light freeze by sunrise Sunday. Currently, forecast temperatures are in the mid 30s, but certainly would not be surprised to see some upper 20s to lower 30s. After a cold start Sunday, temperatures will warm into the lower and mid 70s by afternoon. The wind will become a little breezy across western Oklahoma, so maybe a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions during the afternoon. A low amplitude shortwave trough will move across Texas late Sunday into Monday. This may result in a few showers and storms mainly across southern Oklahoma and northern Texas late Sunday into Monday. On Tuesday, a breezy southerly wind is expected with modest moisture return. Rain and storm chances will remain around 10 percent during the day. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 631 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 MVFR to VFR ceilings are expected through mid to late morning for sites across central Oklahoma. Severe thunderstorms are possible again this afternoon with some uncertainty in coverage. Confidence is greatest that storms should remain east of WWR/CSM, otherwise PROB30 was used for most other sites. Any storm that develops will be capable of all hazards; large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes. Storms will move east out of most sites by late this evening, except DUA may see an additional round of storms across southeast Oklahoma into the overnight hours. Low clouds may return in the early morning hours Thursday with MVFR ceilings in the wake of the storms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 81 59 86 65 / 70 30 0 10 Hobart OK 86 53 90 62 / 40 10 0 10 Wichita Falls TX 85 61 91 65 / 60 10 0 10 Gage OK 83 47 89 60 / 10 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 82 56 85 64 / 60 40 0 0 Durant OK 78 64 86 66 / 80 50 10 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...06 SHORT TERM...06 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...23  868 FXUS64 KAMA 151138 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 638 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1027 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 -Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected Wednesday through Friday for the majority of the combined Panhandles. -Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible for the far eastern combined Panhandles on Friday. -Low temperatures Friday and Saturday night may drop to at or below freezing for portions of the northern combined Panhandles. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 1027 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 We continue to watch a few very light rain showers for the far eastern Texas Panhandle out ahead of the main dryline. Overall coverage will diminish through the overnight period. Otherwise, continuing warm and dry conditions for the Panhandles throughout the short term forecast period. Specifics in the fire weather conditions can be read further in the fire weather discussion of the AFD. Overall through for Wednesday, a lull in the main H500 height gradient will relax winds a bit. However, relatively poor RH recovery from the previous night will still result in more widespread elevated fire weather conditions, coupled with slightly cooler temps behind a weak cold front that should stall in the northern Panhandles Wednesday afternoon. High temperatures on Wednesday will range from the lower 70s in the NW Panhandles to upper 80s in the far SE TX Panhandle. Dry and warm conditions are expected to continue for Thursday with the next central Rockies system moving east, this should help steepen the main H500 gradient for the western Panhandles for breezy conditions to return. Otherwise, warm and dry with highs on Thursday ranging from the lower 80s in the western Panhandles to lower 90s in the eastern Panhandles. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1027 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Depending on the timing of surface features coming together, the potential is there for some thunderstorms in the far eastern combined Panhandles for Friday. If areas out ahead of the incoming cold front, along with a slower moving dryline could tap into decent MUCAPE and 0-6k bulk shear values around 40 kts for a brief window Friday afternoon, strong to severe storms for the eastern TX Panhandle cannot be completely ruled out. Most guidance however supports more critical fire weather conditions to return to the majority of the Panhandles on Friday. Behind the main cold front on Friday, much cooler temperatures near to below average for mid April will filter in for the coming weekend. In fact, overnight temperatures may get at or slightly below freezing from Friday night and Saturday night. Make sure to check back for updates to the forecast, especially those starting their growing season activities. Temperatures should return to above average towards the end of the forecast period as southwesterly surface winds return. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 624 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions and generally light winds are expected at all sites for the next 24 hours. KAMA may experience sustained winds up to 15 kts this afternoon, but winds will become light again by the evening. Rangel && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1027 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Elevated fire weather conditions are expected tomorrow for the majority of the Panhandles with critical fire weather conditions are expected Thursday and Friday. With critical fire weather conditions expected on Thursday and Friday, min RH values will be as low as 7 to 9 percent. With breezy southwesterly winds, max RFTI for both days will range from 5 to 7, with highest values in the western combined Panhandles. ERC percentile will range from the 80th to just over the 90th percentile across all the Panhandles, illustrating the unfortunate setup of abundant fuels for these critical conditions. Will have to watch closely on Friday. If the cold front comes through the Panhandles faster, overall duration of conditions will be much less compared to Thursday. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for TXZ001>014-016>018-317. OK...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for OKZ001>003. && $$ SHORT TERM...29 LONG TERM....29 AVIATION...55  680 FXUS63 KPAH 151141 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 641 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures will approach or exceed record high values again today. - A decaying line of showers and thunderstorms (60-90% chance) will move into the area Thursday morning, bringing much-needed rainfall of 0.25-0.50 inches. - A few thunderstorms may redevelop Thursday afternoon and evening, and an isolated strong storm cannot be ruled out. - A cold front will bring another good chance (50-70%) of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday, followed by cooler and dry quiet weather. && .UPDATE... Issued at 641 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Updated Aviation discussion for the 12z TAF issuance. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1249 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Stout H5 ridging over the southeast CONUS will again bring to the region very warm and mainly dry today into tonight. Cannot rule out a stray thunderstorm in the far west and northwest parts of the forecast area this afternoon and evening, but coverage will be isolated (10-20%). As temperatures at 850mb rise to 16-18C (around the 95th percentile), high temperatures Wednesday will climb into the middle to upper 80s, which will again approach or break record high values. Late tonight into Thursday, numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop to our north and west ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. These showers and storms will be in a decaying mode as they move through the region Thursday morning. Thursday afternoon and evening, an upper- level jet max will pass over the region, which will act to potentially trigger new convection. A few storms reaching strong or severe levels is not out of the question late on Thursday, and SPC has maintained a marginal risk over the region in its latest Day 2 Outlook. If any severe storms develop, marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be the main threat. Given the uncertainty regarding recovery following the morning precipitation, forecast confidence is low regarding the severe threat. Rainfall amounts have trended slightly lower from yesterday's forecast, with most areas now progged to see about 0.25-0.50" by late Thursday evening. Friday will be see another day of near record warmth as the ridging briefly expands over the region. High temperatures will again reach the middle to upper 80s, and a few locations in west Kentucky may reach 90 degrees. The ridge will begin to break down more significantly Saturday into next week, as troughing over the Upper Midwest dips southward into the area. A surface cold front will pass through the area Saturday afternoon and evening, bringing another chance (60-90%) of showers and thunderstorms, in the form of a strongly forced line of storms. These storms could pose a severe risk, especially in southwest IN, where SPC has introduced a slight risk for this time. If severe storms do form, damaging wind gusts would be the primary threat. More beneficial rains are also forecast, with another 0.25-0.50" of rain forecast Saturday into Sunday. Drier and seasonably mild conditions are forecast Sunday into Monday, followed by a warm up into the middle to upper 70s on Tuesday. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 641 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 The first 12-15 hours of the forecast period as the region will remain under breezy S to SW flow, with winds sustained at 12-16 kts with gusts of 20-25 kts through this afternoon. Cloud bases will be VFR, with SCT diurnal CU around 4-6kft and mid and high cirrus around 15-25kft. Tonight, showers with isolated thunder will develop west of the region and move into the area between roughly 4-10z Thursday from west to east. Started with FM groups of SHRA with PROB30 groups for TSRA impacts for now. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1249 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Record high temperatures for today: PAH: 88 (1977) EVV: 86 (2024) CGI: 87 (1992) POF: 88 (1936) MDH: 87 (2024) && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ UPDATE...DWS DISCUSSION...DWS AVIATION...DWS CLIMATE...DWS  036 FXUS63 KGRR 151143 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 743 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe storms have passed, flood risk continues - Thunderstorm chances again this evening - Further chances for storms late this week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 308 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Severe storms have passed, flood risk continues Front has passed to the west and the south with lingering showers and a few isolated storms along the I 94 corridor. Most of southwest Michigan is in the downsloping drier air. The boundary will continue to move to the south and east slowly overnight. A few clusters of storms are expected to follow along the stalled boundary and move along the I 94 corridor overnight into early this morning. The atmosphere is mixed over with little if any dynamics so further severe is not a concern. However, potential hydro concerns remain. The heaviest rainfall occurred north of the I 96 corridor with bullseyes of 2 to 4 inches of radar estimated rainfall. Latest CAMS do have a line of showers and storms through southern Michigan, but that boundary has shifted to the south. So will continue to watch for potential hydro threat this morning but the heaviest rainfall should be along the southern row of counties of Michigan . - Thunderstorm chances again Wednesday The thunderstorm chances will keep on coming. There is a greater potential for weak convection this morning. Any clouds and rainfall will inhibit any atmosphere recovery today. Temperatures are expected to get into the mid 70s with Dewpoints into the 60s. The mid to upper level dynamics are far weaker than the previous two days. That said, another surface low and corresponding frontal patter will move through the region tonight into Thursday. Mid level moisture and weak forcing will accompany that system into far southern Lower Michigan. The best LLJ and helicity will be in Indiana. If that forcing shifts to the north then there could be a better chance for severe Wednesday evening into Thursday. Due to the above conditions SPC has far southern Lower in a slight risk. Main threat will be wind. Given the wet pattern we have been in, hydro will remain a concern. Latest soundings are fairly moist with weak mid level flow, so definitely more of a rain sounding. There is quite a few areas of stable air so access to mid level moisture could be a concern. WPC continues to keep the region in a slight risk for excessive rainfall. - Further chances for storms late this week Michigan could see a reprieve from showers and storms Thursday into Friday. This break will probably be short lived as another large upper level system is trending to move through the region Saturday into Sunday. Latest mid range models are in fair agreement ion the passage of a large upper level low Saturday. that low should bring a system with decent QPF through Saturday. There remains a deepening elongated mid level trough associated with that upper level pattern. SPC does have southern Michigan outlooked for potential severe weather through this timeframe. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 743 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Rain and thunderstorms continue to move through the area briefly dropping sites to MVFR at times. The potential for thunderstorms should diminish after 15Z will a lull expected into the afternoon. There is uncertainty with how the remainder of the day will play out. Thunderstorms are expected to redevelop this evening with the potential for some severe storms if we are able to clear out for a portion of the afternoon. Ceilings are anticipated to gradually fall to IFR tonight into Thursday as the low pressure system moves in continuing chances for showers. && .MARINE... Issued at 333 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Thunderstorms are expected overnight with the potential for damaging winds and large hail. Higher waves will also be possible with any thunderstorm. Thunderstorms will gradually taper off in the southern zones Wednesday morning, but there is a chance they could linger through the day. Otherwise thunderstorm chances return late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 250 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Bottom line: The most significant flood in recent years is likely upcoming on the Muskegon River, with several locations expected to pass Major flood stage. Another 1-2 inches of rain fell last night, primarily in upper/headwaters portions of the Muskegon River Watershed. This joins the previous 2-5 inches of rain in the area that is all finding its way toward the river. A significant and impactful flood on the Muskegon River will be developing over the next few days, with a crest expected in the Friday timeframe. Meanwhile, additional rounds of heavy rain are expected to shift south a bit starting today, with the Grand River basin the more likely to be impacted. With 1-2" across a large area, and locally 3"+ bullseyes expected, we are expecting some localized flooding to develop overnight tonight, especially if the thunderstorms track over urban areas repeatedly. This will also eventually get the Grand River water levels increasing again over the next few days. Currently, this looks like we'll largely repeat the minor flooding (on the Grand River and tributaries) that occurred in the last few weeks. Further south, the Kalamazoo River has been a bit drier lately, so no flooding is expected to develop there, though urban and poor-drainage area flooding will definitely be possible over the next day or two as the thunderstorms move through. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Flood Watch through late Thursday night for MIZ037>040-043>046- 050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Ceru AVIATION...RAH MARINE...Ceru HYDROLOGY...AMD  239 FXUS64 KSHV 151144 AAA AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Shreveport LA 644 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1216 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible on Wednesday into Thursday. - A strong cold front will traverse the region on Saturday, delivering some widespread rainfall and some cooler temps. - Cooler and drier air will settle into the region by Sunday, followed by a slow warming trend into the middle of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1216 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Our region remains positioned under a moist southerly flow as a surface ridge remains in place over the Gulf. This will maintain a steady stream of humidity into the region. For Wednesday and Thursday, a series of upper-level disturbances will interact with this moisture and trigger a few rounds of convection. That being said, short range models have trended a little lower than previous models so I think the NBM could be too excited in regards to the coverage for today. The main area of concern for today will be for areas north of I-20 in east Texas, and then areas along and north of the I-30 corridor. The greatest risk for strong to severe storms today will be across portions of far northeast Texas, southeast Oklahoma, and some western Arkansas. These storms will be capable of producing mainly gusty winds and some hail, but we can't rule out the potential for a tornado or two either. Probably the more impactful event will come on Saturday as a strong cold front sweeps from northwest to southeast across the region. While there remains some differing opinions on timing, it looks like the bulk of the storms will come Saturday afternoon. This will have the potential to provide more widespread rainfall to the region, along with the potential for some strong storms, something we will continue to monitor. Dry air will follow behind the passing cold front, in addition to ushering in some slightly below normal temperatures for Sunday and into the start of next week before returning to more seasonable levels on Tuesday. /33/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 644 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Low MVFR and even some IFR cigs have overspread Lower E TX/much of N LA and Srn AR this morning, and should fill in elsewhere by 14Z, but should slowly lift by mid to late morning, with VFR conditions returning by midday/early afternoon beneath an extensive cu field. The cigs may begin to scatter out by mid to late afternoon, but still linger even through the evening. Scattered convection may move should move into portions of extreme NE TX/SE OK/SW AR by mid to late evening, and gradually weaken as it does so, but could hold together long enough to reach TXK by 06Z Thursday, while weakening as it approaches ELD around 09Z. Have added VCTS/VCSH respectively for these terminals, with any remaining convection diminishing/exiting the region by or shortly after 12Z. Farther S, low MVFR cigs should again redevelop over Deep E TX by 06Z, and quickly spread N across much of the region overnight. It's possible that the potential convection across portions of extreme NE TX/SW AR later tonight could inhibit the Nwd progress of these cigs or delay their development across this area prior to daybreak. Regardless, these cigs should again lift/return to VFR by late morning/midday once again. S winds 10-15kts with gusts to 25kts will diminish to 5-10kts after 00Z. /15/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1251 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon and tonight across portions of extreme Northeast Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, and adjacent sections of Southwest Arkansas for the potential for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms. /15/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 86 67 87 67 / 0 20 10 0 MLU 88 65 89 66 / 0 10 20 0 DEQ 81 61 82 62 / 40 70 20 0 TXK 85 67 86 67 / 10 60 20 10 ELD 85 63 86 64 / 0 30 30 10 TYR 83 67 85 67 / 30 50 10 0 GGG 85 66 86 66 / 10 40 10 0 LFK 86 67 87 66 / 0 10 10 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...33 AVIATION...15  854 FXUS66 KOTX 151145 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 445 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Valley rain, mountain snow, and gusty winds today. - Morning lows near to below freezing through Friday. - Drier and more seasonal temperatures Friday and Saturday. && .SYNOPSIS... A cold front passage this morning will bring lowland rain, mountain snow, and breezy to windy conditions. Snowy travel is expected over the mountain passes this morning. Overnight lows will be cold with near to below freezing temperatures. Warmer and drier conditions return Friday into Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Today-tonight: A cold core upper-level low will wobble into the region delivering windy conditions, cooler temperatures, and periods of rain/snow. A majority of the rain will fall along the leading cold front which has recently crossed over the Olympics and will be sliding through INW overnight into early Wednesday morning. Once the front moves through, the threat for steady precipitation will rapidly end with drier post frontal air moving in. Precipitable water values start off nearly 150% of normal and lower to 50% of normal. Snow levels will also be falling rapidly with snow mixing with rain at times on the back edge of the steadier precipitation though there is little confidence for any snow accumulations in the lowlands. In the mountains, it will be a different story. Snow is already falling over the mountain passes with accumulations noted on Stevens and Snoqualmie Passes. Cams indicate snow also falling on Sherman and Lookout Passes. Winter weather advisories and storm warnings are in place through Wednesday morning to address these concerns for winter travel conditions. Lapse rates will steepen behind the cold front with embedded impulses bringing a renewed threat for showers Wednesday afternoon into the evening. These will likely fall as snow and/or graupel. With the low-levels drying out, cloud basis will be high with minimal accumulations. Would not rule out a dusting to few tenths in the mountains. Today will be windy with persistent westerly winds of 10-25 mph and gusts 30-35 mph. Local gusts to 40 mph are expected on the higher ridgetops and in our wind prone areas of the Waterville Plateau and foothills of the Blue Mountains. Skies will clear overnight for much of Central and northern WA and partially for North Idaho. The cooler and drier air mass will result in chilly overnight lows with many areas reaching freezing or colder. Our low elevation zones in the Western Columbia Basin and Wenatchee Area have reached their climatological growing season and have freeze watches in place. Latest forecast numbers range from 30 to 34F with the biggest uncertainty coming from a light steady wind of 5-11 mph overnight. Will this be enough to keep temperatures from reaching the freezing mark? Thinking it will vary based on location with some areas sheltered from the wind dipping near 29-30F and others remaining closer to 34F. Consequently, freeze warnings have been issued for Thursday morning. Thursday-Friday: A shortwave ridge of high pressure builds over the coast on Thursday then slides inland on Friday. Overall, weather impacts Thursday and Friday will be low. Scattered light snow showers pinwheeling around the backside of the departing low will pass through North Idaho on Thursday with a 30% chance for an additional inch at Lookout Pass. Much of Central and Eastern WA will be sunny and dry but with continued breeziness as west to northwest winds continue to be drawn into the departing low. Wind speeds of 10-15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph will be common around Wenatchee, Entiat, Waterville, Ephrata, Moses Lake, Pullman, and Pomeroy. Temperatures will once again fall into the upper 20s and lower 30s Thursday night into Friday morning with potential for freeze warnings to be extended for an additional day. High temperatures will only warm into the 50s to lower 60s, roughly 5-8 degrees below 30-year averages. Saturday-Tuesday: There is good agreement of another low pressure system dropping out the Gulf of AK and into the Western US. There is moderate to high confidence for mild and dry conditions on Saturday. Uncertainty in the forecast starts Sunday and continues into early next with uncertainty with the track of the low into the Western US. It is close to a 50/50 split in the ensembles for the low to dive well south of the INW leaving it mild and dry while the other 50 have the low in closer proximity with rain and mountain snow showers. NBM is carrying 20-25% precipitation chances given the ensemble members that support the showery regime. This will not be as cold as the current system resulting in higher snow levels and mostly rain for the lowlands if any at all. /sb && .AVIATION... 12Z TAFS: Rain has increased in across Idaho and eastern third of WA and ceilings have started to trend down. HREF has a 70% chance for MVFR cigs and vis at KGEG, KSFF, KCOE, and KPUW and 30% chance at KLWS. Snow levels will lower with the front and increasing precipitation intensities with 30-40% chance for rain/snow mix at KPUW, KGEG, KCOE and very low chances for any accumulations with temperatures well above freezing. Drier air will filter into the region behind the front will swift return to VFR skies. Additional showers will develop from high based clouds in the afternoon falling as mix of rain/snow but little to no probabilities for conditions to lower below VFR. The main issue in the post frontal air mass will be gusty winds of 20-30kts. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: There is low confidence for the post frontal rain/snow showers this afternoon given the higher cloud bases and dry air intrusion. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 50 29 51 29 54 32 / 80 20 20 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 47 28 49 29 52 30 / 90 40 40 10 0 0 Pullman 45 29 45 30 50 31 / 100 40 40 0 10 0 Lewiston 50 34 51 32 55 33 / 100 40 20 0 0 0 Colville 51 27 55 27 58 28 / 60 30 20 0 0 0 Sandpoint 45 29 46 29 50 30 / 90 60 70 10 20 0 Kellogg 42 27 43 27 47 28 / 100 60 80 20 30 0 Moses Lake 55 30 59 31 60 35 / 20 10 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 51 33 55 34 60 38 / 20 10 0 0 0 0 Omak 53 31 58 32 61 35 / 20 10 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM PDT Thursday for Moses Lake Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Wenatchee Area. Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM PDT early this morning for Okanogan Highlands. Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM PDT early this morning for Western Chelan County. ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for Central Panhandle Mountains. && $$  522 FXUS63 KFGF 151145 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 645 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of dense fog thru mid morning. - There is a 20% chance for advisory level winter impacts from accumulating snow and gusty winds late Thursday night into early Saturday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 642 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Update for aviation discussion. Fog doing fog things, some improvement in NW MN as low clouds expanded west, but overall areas not in advisory remaining dense fog free. UPDATE Issued at 434 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Area if low clouds remain in parts of NW MN, Detroit Lakes to Park Rapids north to near Thief River Falls and Waskish. But also seeing widespread fog in the clearer areas of far northwest MN Waskish-TRF and north and considerable fog, some dense in eastern ND, not including Devils Lake. Dense fog advisory out for these areas thru 14zz. There were a few very light rain showers that moved east from Bismarck but they look to have dissipated by Jamestown, with pocket of mid clouds with that. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 306 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...Synopsis... Large scale pattern features a split in zonal flow over the Northern Plains, with a mid level shortwave east of our region. Surface high pressure is in place with stratus slowly starting to break up. Additional fog/stratus may redevelop later tonight after the current low clouds clear, with better chances for mainly aviation impacts in north central MN. Deeper westerly flow aloft will support deepening low pressure on the Lee side of the Northern Rockies and increasing southerly flow/WAA Wednesday through Thursday morning. A deepening mid/upper level trough over the Pacific Northwest builds eastward late this week into the weekend. The initial cold front arrives late in the day Thursday and may result in a large spread in potential high temperatures north to south (low 50s to near 80F depending on timing within our CWA). It will also bring chances for rain and snow back to our region from Friday through Saturday. As that trough passes, there is a strong consensus in mid/upper level ridging arriving by early next week, with rising heights reflective of increasing temperatures (60s/70s by Tuesday). This pattern also lowers the probability of measurable precipitation, though the orientation of the ridge/flow aloft may still allow for fast moving shortwave trough passages near our CWA. ...Winter travel impact potential Friday into Saturday... As stronger synoptic ascent and WAA in the 850-700 MB layer overspread our CWA several periods of light to moderate precipitation (mainly rain) should move west to east through our CWA Friday into Saturday morning. All ensembles at this time support the main closed 700MB low tracking over Manitoba, placing the potential for stronger frontogensis to the north, while most precipitation in our CWA will be driven by WAA or broader deformation on the back side of the 500MB low. While there is overall strong consensus on the larger scale track, smaller scale features at the surface (low track/frontal timing) still play a role in the potential for winter impacts. A larger number of ensemble members generally keep temperature profiles in place supportive of liquid with surface temperatures above freezing outside of the overnight/morning periods for most locations (limiting potential for accumulating snow or a wintry mix). In this scenario (80% chance) most areas would see little to no accumulation (better chance for 1" in the Devils Lake Basin). There is still a subset of members (20%) that support more organized deformation while temperature profiles are cold enough for all snow and have better chance for snow totals greater than 3". As ground temperatures are warmer, most of this will tend to be on grassy/elevated surfaces that may limit impacts outside of snow rates/wind reducing visibility where moderate/brief heavy snow would track. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 642 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Upper level wave moving into the central and southern Red River valley at 12z with area of mid/high clouds. Underneath this have fog to varying visibilities most dense Grand Forks to Cavalier and Hallock. Low clouds VLIFR or LIFR ceilings Bemidji and TVF. Overall I dont forsee a reason why fog and low clouds would not burn off during the mid to late morning. Hourly timing of vsby is an estimate in the TAFs for GFK in particular. South to southwest wind this afternoon 8-15 kts. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for NDZ007-008- 016-026>030-038-039-049-052>054. MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MNZ001>009- 013>017-029-030-040. && $$ UPDATE...Riddle DISCUSSION...DJR AVIATION...Riddle  889 FXUS66 KLOX 151146 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 446 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .SYNOPSIS...14/125 PM. Dry and warmer weather is expected for the remainder of this week. Gusty northerly winds will develop over much of the area on Thursday, shifting to northeast and becoming focused over Los Angeles and Ventura Counties on Friday. The next chance of rain will be next Monday. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...15/221 AM. A pretty bland weather day today. A weak ridge will be overhead with 572 dam hgts. There will be weak offshore flow in the morning turning onshore in the afternoon (and becoming moderate to the east). Marine layer clouds will be limited to western SBA county and maybe the Long Beach area. Max temps will not change too much and will end up a few degrees blo normal. The upper low associated with the forecast inside slider is not fcst to be much further to the NE than before and only its trof will move down the CA/NV state line. The RRFS came with much less wind which seem reasonable but the NAM still has gusty winds through the i-5 corridor. Low clouds should be pretty minimal again and mostly confined to western SBA county and perhaps the Long Beach area again. There is a chc of an eddy spinning up and if this happens there will be more low clouds than fcst. Thursday actually looks like it will start off mostly cloudy as a grip of mid and high clouds stream over the area. These clouds should slowly move off during the afternoon for SLO, SBA and VTA counties but LA county might have clouds all day. The northerly offshore flow is forecast to bring a few degrees of warming to the LA/VTA csts and VLys and 3 to 5 degrees fore the csts/vlys of SLO and SBA counties. This is a lower confidence fcst, however, due to the amount of high clouds and 6 mb of onshore flow to the east in the afternoon. Would not be surprised if there was only limited or no warming instead. The northerly flow will bring in cool air from the SAn Joaquin Vly and this will cool the far interior by 2 to 4 degrees. High pressure rapidly building into the Great Basin in the wake of the inside slider will quickly switch the onshore flow to the east to offshore. The latest runs suggest about 6 mb. There will be about 4 mb of offshore flow from the north as well. This combined with decent winds at 850 mb should produce an advisory level Santa Ana wind event with 45 to 55 mph gusts through the Santa Ana Wind Corridor (Santa Clarita Vly to the western Santa Monicas). Sunny skies and offshore flow will bring 3 to 6 degrees of warming to the LA/VTA csts/vlys. Cool air from the NE will lower temps across the Antelope Vly by 2 to 4 degrees. The lack of northerly flow over the Santa Ynez range will cool the SBA south coast by 2 to 3 degrees. Most cst/vly max temps will end up in the 70s and lower 80s (The SBA south coast may only reach the upper 60s) .LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...15/221 AM. The upper level flow turns to the west on Saturday. There will still be offshore flow in the morning but it will be weaker than it was on Friday. The weaker flow and lack of upper support means that while there will be canyon winds in the morning they will not be strong enough for an advisory. Skies will be sunny and it will be a very warm day. Look for 1 to 2 degrees of warming across the csts; 3 to 5 degrees in the vlys, while the mtns and interior will see 4 to 8 degrees of warming as the cool air from the interior shuts off. Most max temps will be 6 to 8 degrees above normal. On Sunday offshore flow will be turning onshore as another cold and cut off upper low approaches northern California. The csts and vlys will cool 2 to 4 degrees with the earlier and stronger sea breeze. The interior will actually warm a few degrees. No real resolution to the Monday Tuesday forecast as there is disagreement in the deterministic mdls and a wide spread within the ensembles. The is reflected in the official NBM forecast that shows 48 hours of slight chc pops Monday through Tuesday. With the low to the north the best chc of rain will be north of Pt Conception. LA county currently only has very minimal chances of rain. && .AVIATION...15/1141Z. At 0833Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion. High confidence in TAFs except for KSMX (25 percent chc no low clouds) KLAX...High confidence in TAF through 08Z then moderate confidence. There is a 30 percent chc of no low clouds tonight. If low clouds do arrive they could be as early as 09Z and as low as BKN008. No significant easterly wind component is expected. KBUR...High confidence in CAVU TAF. No wind issues are expected. && .MARINE...15/202 AM. For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Friday, high confidence in a combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas. On Thursday and Thursday night, there is a 40-50% chance of GALE force winds. Most likely across far northern waters & south of Pt Conception. For Saturday through Sunday, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds. For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Thursday, high confidence in SCA level winds during the afternoon and evening hours. 20% chance of GALE force wind gusts Thursday evening. For Friday through Sunday, there is a 20-30% chance of SCA level winds during the afternoon and evening timeframe. For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. High confidence in SCA level winds across western portion of the Santa Barbara Channel thru Thursday night. On Friday, there is a 50-70% chance of SCA level northeast winds from Ventura south to Santa Monica and potentially across the San Pedro Channel. For Saturday thru Sunday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA criteria. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Rorke AVIATION...Rorke MARINE...Black SYNOPSIS...MW weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox  328 FXUS66 KPDT 151147 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 447 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mountain snow will persist through Thursday morning - Breezy conditions in the lower elevations through Thursday - Near to below freezing morning lows Thursday and Friday for the lower elevations && .DISCUSSION...Today through Thursday: Satellite and regional radar imagery show a cold front slowly pushing southeast across the PacNW this early morning, with snow showers along the Cascade crest and across the Blue mountains. The cold front has mostly stalled along the Cascade crest this morning, which has resulted in moderate snow showers impacting the Cascade passes. The cold front is expected to pass over the Cascade crest later this morning and continue to push southeast across the forecast area through this evening, while a closed low is expected to arrive to the region by this afternoon. The best chances for precipitation in the lower elevations will be associated with the frontal passage today, with many locations only seeing rain throughout the day. However, snow levels plummeting to around 2kft behind the frontal boundary and anticipated post-frontal showers will bring chances (30-40%) of light snow to portions of central OR this evening. By tonight, the upper low will move over the forecast area, cutting off precip chances in the lower elevations. AS for the mountains, moderate to locally heavy snow showers will continue to develop across the Cascade crest and the northern Blues through this evening, with snow tapering off late tonight into Thursday morning. Multiple winter weather headlines are in effect today through tonight and early Thursday morning in anticipation of impacts from the heavy mountain snow. There remains high confidence (85-90%) in snow accumulations totaling between 6-12 inches for the OR Cascade east slopes above 4000 feet, 4-8 inches for the upper east slopes of the WA Cascade east slopes, and 5-10 inches for the Northern Blues above 4500 feet. The heaviest snow accumulations are expected to occur with the cold front passage this morning, becoming light to locally moderate through the remainder of today. Breezy winds will continue to impact the region through Thursday as the cold front passage and continued cold air advection into the forecast area result in tightened pressure gradients. Confidence is moderate-high (60-85%) that westerly winds will remain between 15-30mph and gusts 25-45mph. That said, wind-prone areas in the Columbia Basin and Blue mountain foothills will see a 65-85% chance of gusts exceeding 45 mph today as the cold front boundary moves through the region. Otherwise, clearing skies, dry surface conditions, and cold air advection into the region will result in near to below freezing morning temperatures Thursday and Friday. Of particular concern are the Kittitas and Yakima valleys, where there is 80-90% chance of morning lows below freezing both days; the northern Blue mountain foothills of OR are also a concern where there is a 60-80% chance of below freezing lows, especially in areas prone to cold-pooling. Freeze warnings have been issued in these areas for Thursday morning, and will likely need to be reissued for Friday morning. Friday through Tuesday: Ensemble guidance is in good agreement of upper level ridging sliding across the PacNW with dry conditions and light winds by Friday (confidence 75-90%). The forecast area will remain under the influence of the ridge through Saturday, but ensemble members disagree on the evolution of the synoptic pattern Sunday into early next week. That said, there is good agreement in some form of upper low bringing another round of precipitation chances across the PacNW, but confidence is low (15-25%) in timing, intensity, and p-type. Lawhorn/82 && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...VFR conditions to prevail through the period. A cold front moving through the region will bring rain shower impacts to all sites this morning, with associated showers diminishing around 18Z. Post frontal rain showers may impact sites DLS/PSC between 22-03Z, while showers may start off as a mix and transition to snow at sites RDM/BDN between 01-04Z. Winds will increase to 12-20kts with gusts 20-35kts at all sites this morning, with these winds prevailing at sites PDT/ALW late into the evening. Winds will shift to the west/northwest behind the frontal passage this morning and early afternoon. Winds will become light, 12kts or less, at sites DLS/RDM/BDN/YKM/PSC around or after 03Z. Lawhorn/82 && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 51 31 54 33 / 90 40 10 0 ALW 51 34 54 35 / 100 60 30 0 PSC 58 34 61 34 / 70 20 0 0 YKM 55 30 59 30 / 30 10 0 0 HRI 56 33 59 34 / 70 20 0 0 ELN 47 29 51 30 / 20 10 0 0 RDM 49 22 49 22 / 90 30 0 0 LGD 49 29 46 30 / 90 60 50 10 GCD 50 26 45 25 / 100 70 50 10 DLS 53 35 57 36 / 80 20 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for WAZ030-522. Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM PDT Thursday for WAZ026-027. OR...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for ORZ502. Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ507. Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ509. && $$ DISCUSSION...82 AVIATION...82  148 FXUS65 KBOU 151149 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 549 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Drier today with mild temperatures. - Locally critical fire weather conditions over the plains Thursday afternoon. - Next system moves in Friday with much colder temperatures and snow for most locations. - Hard freeze likely Friday night and into Saturday morning with lows in the upper teens to mid 20s. && .DISCUSSION /Through Tuesday/... Issued at 1145 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Satellite and RAP analysis products show today's shortwave continuing to push eastward, with only a few lingering showers across the plains left on radar. Wednesday should be warmer and drier across the forecast area as weak zonal flow develops behind the departing trough. Mid-level temperatures should warm several degC and forecast highs return to the 60s across most of the plains. A little bit of moisture is expected to linger across the high country leading to a bit more cloud cover there, with mostly sunny skies across the plains. Thursday will likely be the warmest day of the work week this week, with southwesterly flow aloft increasing ahead of our next (stronger) trough axis. Temperatures are expected to warm up into the mid to upper 70s across most of the plains... and combined with low relative humidity values... another day of widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be possible. See the Fire Wx section below for additional details. The focus of the forecast period continues to be Thursday night through Friday night, as a strong trough axis swings across the region. Tonight's guidance hasn't changed significantly with the synoptic scale details of this event, with the trough axis quickly pushing across the state during the day Friday. A rather strong cold front looks like it will push into the plains late Thursday night or sometime Friday morning, with 700mb temperatures dropping to as cold as -8 to -11C by Friday afternoon. While the trough is rather quick to move across the region, there would still be a narrow period (<12 hours) of favorable upslope and QG ascent to work with during the day Friday. Unsurprisingly, ensemble guidance strongly favors a modest (around 0.15-0.4") QPF forecast which would lead to generally light snow amounts across most of the Front Range and I-25 corridor. We'll continue to watch trends closely here as we get into the range of the HRRR/RRFS and other CAMs. A cold overnight is likely on Friday night with a hard freeze expected across most of the lower elevations. We may be slow to warm on Saturday, but there's good agreement in a broad ridge developing across the western CONUS by later in the weekend or early next week. Highs should climb to above normal values by Sunday and continue through early/mid-week next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday/... Issued at 549 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR will persist through the TAF period, with only FEW-SCT clouds 10,000 feet AGL or higher. Winds are starting this valid period more westerly than normal, and overall see little change in those winds through about 17-18Z. Weak inversion is in place so sunshine wshould help bring a little more mixing and thus W-NW component 18Z-01Z, before transitioning back to normal S-SW winds by 03Z-05Z Thursday. KBJC will likely see stronger winds with gusts to 30 kts possible this morning due to mountain wave enhancement, but even there winds should settle in speeds this afternoon as flow aloft weakens a bit. Overall, there is higher than normal confidence with those wind trends, although can't totally rule out (20% chance) of brief disruptions in the expected wind progression. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1145 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Dry, southwesterly flow aloft is expected to develop on Thursday ahead of Friday's storm system... leading to widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions across the forecast area. Good agreement across Tuesday afternoon's guidance and from most of the available 00z guidance tonight that we'll see humidity drop to critical thresholds across most of the lower elevations, with some models advertising single digit RH values Thursday afternoon. The bigger question is how much wind will develop across the lower elevations Thursday afternoon. The NBM appears to be far too aggressive with gusts, and even after adjusting down our forecast wind grids are about 5-10 mph stronger than some higher resolution guidance. With mid-level (700mb) flow around 20-25kt, it seems reasonable to expect at least a few hours of >25 mph gusts. Given that the flow is predominantly SW/WSW, much of the I-25/I-76 corridors may be partially sheltered. While many locations in the plains may see critical fire weather conditions, GEFS Hot Dry Windy Index plumes suggest higher confidence of approaching/exceeding the 90th percentile of the HDWI across South Park into Lincoln county, with far more spread along and north of I-70/I-76. For those reasons, we've opted for a relatively small Fire Weather Watch from South Park into the Palmer Divide and adjacent plains for Thursday, though it's possible the day shift will need to make additional refinements after evaluating the full suite of Wednesday's 12z guidance. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for COZ214-216-241-245>247-249. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hiris AVIATION...20 FIRE WEATHER...Hiris  664 FXUS63 KSGF 151150 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 650 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slight (level 2 of 5) severe thunderstorm risk this afternoon into tonight. Number of rounds, timing of highest severe risk, exact hazards, and intensity still hinges on how quickly morning convection dissipates, but most severe scenario involves large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes this afternoon into this evening. - Thursday afternoon has a low-end Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk of severe thunderstorms in the far eastern Ozarks, with primary hazard being large hail. - Severe thunderstorms expected again on Friday, with an Enhanced (level 3 of 5) Risk of severe weather beginning in the afternoon and continuing through the overnight hours into early Saturday morning. - Marginal excessive rainfall concerns through the week in areas that see repeated strong storms and/or training precipitation. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 335 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Current Conditions & Synoptic Overview: Mid- and upper-level water vapor imagery depict an upper-level trough moving across the western CONUS, with the base of the trough pushing into the Sonoran Desert of northwest Mexico. Along the eastern edge of the advancing trough, two centers of cyclonic rotation can be observed, one near Bismarck ND and the other near North Platte NE. Deep convection is ongoing in 4 locations across the Midwest and Southern Plains along two boundaries of interest: along a stationary/quasi-cold front across southern Iowa and Wisconsin and from southern Michigan into northern Ohio, and in the warm sector ahead of a dryline in south-central Texas and from central Oklahoma into the Ozarks. The convection in our backyard early this morning is a decaying MCV that brought strong to severe winds as it moved into the area early this morning. Despite the cold pool of the late evening MCV bleeding the environment and completely depleting the instability in northeast Oklahoma and southwest Missouri, additional pockets of elevated convection are forming on the western edges of the MLCAPE gradient/remnant cold pool as 50-60kt LLJ advects warm, moist air overtop the more dense air mass. These storms upstream of our area are not expected to be able to sustain themselves very long in such a stable environment, but this second round of scattered, disorganized elevated convection will advance into our area this morning. Even if the morning convection doesn't persist very long in time or reach very far east, it will still have some residual effect on the ability and speed at which the environment destabilizes this afternoon. One other potential impact this AM convection could have would be leaving residual outflow boundaries or cold pools behind for storms to potentially form along this afternoon. Model guidance across 00Z-06Z suites seem to point to three potential solutions for how today'afternoons setup evolves. From most to least likely/highest confidence to lowest confidence: Outcome 1: Afternoon warm sector convection across our area, followed by line of storms that form as discrete/semi-discrete supercells in Kansas/Oklahoma and quickly grow upscale into a line and arrive during the evening hours. This afternoon convection would depend on morning convection stopping at some point so a capping inversion can develop aloft before being broken this afternoon. Despite widespread cloud cover, confidence is high in the cap being broken, and the remnant outflow boundaries/cold pools/surface convergence from morning convection would serve as a mechanism for storms to form off of in the afternoon without requiring the dryline to initiate. Storms would form as discrete initially, but quickly grow upscale into clusters. Coverage would be scattered enough to allow for the later round of storms to maintain their severe risk. Straight hodographs earlier in the afternoon would support splitting supercells that would suggest more of a hail threat initially, and also implicate that storm mode becomes messy quickly. Large hail to the size of golf balls, damaging winds up to 70 mph, and a few tornadoes would be possible with the afternoon storm development, while damaging winds up to 70 mph and weak embedded tornadoes would be the hazards for the line of storms later in the evening. There could be a risk for strong tornadoes with any supercells that remain mature into the evening, when shear profiles become more curved in the low- levels. Outcome 2: No afternoon warm sector convection, but the discrete/semi- discrete supercells in Kansas and Oklahoma form along the dryline as anticipated and grow upscale into a line and arrive during the evening hours. This outcome would have a lower, but still not insignificant, severe risk compared to the first outcome. The timing of severe potential would be limited to the window where storms are moving into the area from Oklahoma/Kansas, with the hazards being damaging winds up to 70 mph and weak embedded tornadoes with the line. Outcome 3: Continuous, non-severe warm sector convection continues all through the morning and afternoon hours, before upstream convection develops and arrives this evening. When the upstream storms do arrive this evening, the atmosphere would be so washed out from continuous development that there would be a far lower to even no severe risk once it does arrive. The line of storms that arrives overnight could have stratiform development behind the leading edge that lingers into the early morning hours on Thursday. The Eastern Ozarks could see a continued, low severe risk for elevated storms on Thursday. with a few CAMs hinting at the line moving out of the area fast enough tonight that the air mass could recover and see redevelopment by the afternoon. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Far to our northwest, GOES-West water vapor imagery shows another digging trough developing aloft over the Pacific Northwest, which will serve as the primary driving force for another widespread round of showers and strong to severe thunderstorms across the Plains on Friday. Confidence is high in this trough moving across the central US by Friday night, providing ascent for widespread showers and thunderstorms as a cold front finally displaces the persistent Bermuda High that has been blocking the pattern up. The best chances for severe weather on Friday will be further north and west of a Joplin to Jefferson City line within an Enhanced (Level 3 of 5) Risk, which is closer to the cold front and more likely to see initiation and maintenance within the more favorable diurnal window of instability. Our position between the dryline that persists over the Southern Plains and the cold front pushing in from the north means a big question mark surrounding whether we will be a part of the dryline supercell club as part of that severe risk. Supercells would put large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes on the table as potential risks prior to the cold front arriving to the area. If our severe risk is tied only to the cold frontal passage, that would implicate damaging winds and embedded spin-up tornadoes as the severe hazards of concern. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 640 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 An additional round of showers and thunderstorms is moving across the area to start the TAF period, with leading and trailing stratiform lightning strikes surrounding the deeper convective pockets. Brief MVFR ceilings may accompany the heavy rainfall, but return to VFR after rain moves east. However, MVFR ceilings (1500-3000ft) will return later this morning. Additional low chances for shower and thunderstorm development return early this afternoon with a potential severe weather event unfolding again today. Confidence is low in coverage and timing of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon if storms even develop, but timing will be refined as mesoscale features and their influence on showers and storms become more clear over the morning hours. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 630 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Record High Temperatures: April 16: KVIH: 85/2006 April 17: KSGF: 87/1937 KVIH: 86/2004 KUNO: 87/2006 Record High Minimum Temperatures: April 15: KSGF: 63/2006 KJLN: 66/2006 KUNO: 62/2006 KVIH: 63/1976 April 16: KSGF: 66/1963 April 17: KSGF: 66/1976 && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Camden LONG TERM...Camden AVIATION...Camden CLIMATE...Camden  094 FXUS64 KLCH 151154 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 654 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm, humid conditions will continue through the end of the week with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s. - A cold front will move through the region Saturday evening into early Sunday morning accompanied by showers and thunderstorms. - Cooler, drier air will move into the region Sunday through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1202 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Southern flow continues unabated as high pressure remains locked in place off the eastern seaboard. With the persistent advection of warm, moist Gulf air, our weather will remain warmer than usual with dew points in the 60s. Each afternoon, temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s with the possibility for temperatures to reach the 90s in central Louisiana on Friday and Saturday. For the remainder of the work week, conditions will be dry with no real chance of rain until this weekend. On Saturday afternoon, a cold front will move across the region causing widespread rain and the chance for a few thunderstorms. Total QPF remains fairly low with total rainfall amounts between 0.25 to 0.5 inches. Behind the front, cooler and drier air will flow into the region with highs dropping into the 70s and lows down into the 40s. This cool down will be short-lived, as south winds will start back up on Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 631 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A similar persistence forecast will take shape today. Winds will increase from the south-southeast today with a few gusts up to 20 knots possible during the afternoon hours. Winds and CIGs will fall with sundown. Some areas may see patchy to dense fog, however placement is uncertain as cloud cover overhead could limit fog development. 11/calhoun && .MARINE... Issued at 1202 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 High pressure will continue the generally calm weather we have been seeing for the past several days. Steady onshore flow will remain around 10 to 15 knots with waves below 5 feet. On Saturday evening, a cold front will move offshore, causing widespread rain along with a wind shift. Winds look concerning for Sunday night/Monday, with offshore winds around 30 knots and gusts up to 40 knots being possible. Marine headlines are likely after the passage of the front. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1202 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Dry conditions will continue until Saturday, when a cold front will bring widespread rain. Ahead of the front, minimum RH values will be above 40% with light south winds. Sunday and Monday, minimum RH values will be around 30% with north winds. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...14 AVIATION...11  728 FXUS64 KMOB 151154 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 654 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 641 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Moderate to extreme drought, with little to no rain over the next 7 days, will exacerbate wildfire activity. - Patchy to areas of fog development, some of which could be dense, is possible over the next few nights. - A moderate rip current risk is expected for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches through Saturday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 309 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Once again fog has developed across the area and current satellite imagery and observations are showing widespread dense fog starting along the I-10 corridor and rapidly spreading inland. Some high clouds will likely limit how far north the fog will make it but most of the are will likely deal with dense fog this morning. Along with the fog, the presence of several wildfires across southeastern Mississippi and southwestern Alabama could result in localized areas of super fog. Super fog is where smoke particles mix with dense fog resulting in an area of incredibly dense fog. Visibilities in these areas could drop to a few hundred feet at best resulting in highly treacherous driving conditions. Use extreme caution around any area that you knew there was smoke. A dense fog advisory is now in effect until 9 am for most of the area. Fog should slowly mix out after 9 am. BB-8 && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1127 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 An upper trof advances across the Plains and much of the eastern states through Thursday night before exiting off into the western Atlantic on Friday. An upper ridge spanning much of the Gulf and the extreme southeastern states becomes oriented over the eastern Gulf up to near the Mid Atlantic coast through Wednesday, then retreats to the Gulf on Thursday. The upper ridge builds back into the region on Friday while a large upper trof advances across the western CONUS. This next upper trof amplifies while continuing across the eastern states this weekend, and an associated surface low is expected to bring a cold front through the forecast area Saturday night. Prior to the passage of the front, a surface ridge oriented along the northern Gulf coast will promote a warm southerly surface flow over the forecast area. Subsidence effects associated with upper ridge look to keep deep layer moisture sufficiently limited to continue with a dry forecast through Saturday. As the front moves through, have gone with slight chance to chance pops along and west of I-65 Saturday night with slight chance pops for Sunday. Dry conditions are expected to prevail for Monday into Tuesday. There is the potential for dense fog development overnight which will be monitored. Fog development is also possible again Wednesday night and Thursday night. Highs on Wednesday and Thursday will be mostly in the lower to mid 80s, and in the mid to upper 80s on Friday and Saturday. Highs on Sunday will be cooler and mostly in the lower to mid 70s then gradually trend to the mid to upper 70s by Tuesday. Lows tonight in the mid 50s to lower 60s trend to the upper 50s to lower 60s for Thursday night and Friday night, then turn cooler by Sunday night to range from the mid 40s well inland to the mid 50s at the coast. Overnight lows trend a bit warmer through Tuesday night to range from the lower 50s inland to around 60 at the coast. A moderate risk of rip currents is expected through Saturday. /29 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 641 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Widespread LIFR and VLIFR visbys and ceilings have developed across most of the area excluding the immediate coastline. Conditions will quickly return to areawide VFR by mid morning. Winds will remain light out of the south becoming light and variable overnight as LIFR to VLIFR ceilings and visbys develop once again after midnight. BB-8 && .MARINE... Issued at 309 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A light to moderate southeasterly flow continues through Wednesday, becoming more southerly by Thursday. Moderate to occasionally strong offshore flow returns by Sunday in the wake of a cold front. Small Craft Advisories may become necessary for Sunday and into Monday. BB-8 && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1127 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Ongoing drought conditions pose the potential to exacerbate wildfire activity for the next 7 days. While afternoon relative humidity values remain above critical levels through Sunday, drier air flows into the area on Monday which looks to result in relative humidity values dropping to 20-25% mostly over interior areas. /29 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 82 63 82 61 / 0 0 10 0 Pensacola 78 65 80 64 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 78 65 77 65 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 86 56 87 59 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 86 61 86 61 / 0 0 10 0 Camden 85 58 85 61 / 0 0 10 0 Crestview 86 57 86 58 / 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for ALZ052-053- 055>060-261>266. FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for FLZ201>206. MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MSZ067-075- 076-078-079. GM...None. && $$  936 FXUS65 KBOI 151156 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 556 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain, mountain snow and gusty winds on Wednesday, then snow level lowering to valley floors tonight and Thursday morning. - Subfreezing morning temperatures Friday and Saturday in the agricultural areas. - Warmer and drier over the weekend, with another chance of precipitation early next week. && .SHORT TERM /Through Friday Night/... Issued 322 AM MDT WED APR 15 2026 The next strong upper trough from the Gulf of Alaska and surface cold front were approaching our area this morning with another round of moderate to heavy rain and snow today and tonight. At 2 AM MDT the eastward-moving cold front was already onshore in western WA and OR, extending out into the Pacific along 42N. The supporting upper low was near 50/130 near the BC coast and moving southeastward. Radar was already showing areas of light rain and snow in eastern OR and western- most Idaho but little was reaching the ground. But pcpn will increase around sunrise and continue through the day and this evening. This system is colder than the previous one and will lower the snow level to valley floors late tonight and early Thursday morning, but by then most of the pcpn will be ending. The surface cold front is slated to pass through eastern OR this afternoon and western Idaho this evening. Ahead of the front, heaviest pcpn will fall in the Boise Mountains and west Central Idaho Mountains with snow level near 6000 feet, with rain heavy enough to loosen rocks and mud on steep slopes, so travelers should avoid the Banks-Lowman road and similar roads until rain changes to snow this evening. Total pcpn today through Thursday should be 0.75 to 1.25 inch in our northern mountains, and generally 0.25 to 0.75 inch elsewhere, except 0.15 to 0.25 inch in rain-shadowed southern areas. Total snowfall will be 8 to 15 inches above 6000 feet late today through tonight but only 1-3 inches near 5000 feet, including McCall/ID. Pre-frontal southwest to west winds will increase to advisory speeds in the southwest Idaho Highlands, southern Twin Falls County, and in southern Malheur and Harney Counties. A Wind Advisory has been posted for those areas this afternoon and early evening. The frontal passage itself will be marked by a short period of heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms. After that the snow level will lower rapidly and rain will change to snow, with up to an inch accumulation overnight in the Magic Valley but little or none in the Treasure Valley. Thursday will be windy and cold with lingering snow showers as the upper low moves through, then clearing and quite cold Thursday night. A Freeze Watch has been posted for the Treasure Valley and western Magic Valley agricultural valleys for Friday morning and again Saturday morning, but Friday looks like the colder day. Low temperatures Friday will dip as low as 24 degrees in the western Magic Valley which would be a hard freeze, with 27 to 30 degrees in the Treasure Valley, again cold enough to damage young plants unless they are protected. && .LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/... Issued 322 AM MDT WED APR 15 2026 A ridge building in behind the system in the short-term period will allow for dry and milder conditions on Saturday, with temperatures near normal. Saturday morning will be the last morning (in this forecast period at least) with temperatures near or below freezing across the area. Temperatures come Sunday will warm to 5-10 degrees above normal. This next week, guidance continues to resolve a low digging down from the Gulf Alaska and closing off from the main jet stream, but timing continues to be tricky. Over the past few runs, ensemble guidance has continually slowed the system, delaying its arrival into our area. With southerly flow ahead of this low, a slight warming trend would be able to sustain itself into early next week with a slower arrival. The current forecast carries slight precipitation chances come Monday, increasing to 20-40 percent area-wide Tuesday and Wednesday (where the consensus is starting to lean on the low's arrival). Temperatures should be able to maintain the slight warming trend and remain above normal through Tuesday in the southerly flow, before cooling to near normal behind the system. Breezy south/southwest winds are anticipated early next week as the low inches closer, becoming W-NW following its passage. && .AVIATION /12Z Wednesday through Thursday/... Issued 556 AM MDT WED APR 15 2026 Precip expanding from NW to SE through the day. low VFR/MVFR ceilings in rain, IFR/LIFR in mtn snow. Snow levels 5-7kft MSL. A cold front will bring sharp wind shifts and intensify precip, MVFR/IFR in heavier rain showers. A 25% chance of thunder along the front. Snow levels rapidly lowering to valley floors following the front. Precip becoming scattered early Thu/AM. Surface winds: becoming SE-SW 10-20 kt with gusts to 20-35 kt. Then W-NW 15-30kt with gusts up to 45 kt Wed/PM with the frontal passage. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-SW 25-40 kt. KBOI...Ceilings lowering to MVFR this morning with increasing showers. Periods of VFR early this afternoon. A strong cold front will arrive around Wed/23z-Thu/00z. The front will bring a sharp wind shift, heavier precip, temporary MVFR/IFR, and potential for graupel/lightning. Conditions returning to VFR following the front. Surface winds: Becoming SE 10-15 kt this morning. Then NW 15-25 kt with gusts to 25-35 kt behind the front. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for IDZ012-014-016. Wind Advisory from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for IDZ015-030. OR...Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for ORZ064. Wind Advisory from noon MDT /11 AM PDT/ today to 8 PM MDT /7 PM PDT/ this evening for ORZ061-063. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....NF SHORT TERM...LC LONG TERM....NF  637 FXUS63 KMKX 151157 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 657 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Additional severe storms possible this afternoon if a front remains stalled across the area. If the front sets up south of the area, severe potential will greatly decrease but flash flooding will remain possible due to training convection. - Heavy rainfall could lead to additional periods of flooding this afternoon into Wednesday. Additional Flood Watches are possible especially tomorrow. - Additional windows for heavy rainfall, flooding, and severe thunderstorms Friday into Saturday. All severe hazards will be possible later Tuesday afternoon into the evening. && .UPDATE... Issued 645 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Mainly showery precip remains across the region this morning after a low level jet encouraged occasionally strong storm redevelopment through the overnight period. These showers will linger into the at least the first part of the morning hours today, keeping an effective frontal boundary held up over portions of north-central Illinois. If showers vacate early enough in the day, said boundary will attempt to work back into the area during the afternoon, allowing moisture and instability to come back into parts of the region. If this can occur, will be looking at one final round of strong to severe storm development by late afternoon/early evening as an upper wave swings through the region. Despite far more modest mid- level lapse rates relative to yesterday, still favorable speed shear aloft will be supportive for large hail. Damaging winds would be possible as well. An isolated tornado can't be entirely ruled out, though the potential is far secondary to the wind/hail potential & far lower than yesterday. Severe threat aside, any training convection will pose additional flooding potential with the ground saturated and many rivers/creeks either at or above bankfull. Will be monitoring trends through today regarding instability returns & training storm signals in guidance & provide additional updates as necessary. Apart from storm potential, dense fog continues in the northwest through at least mid-morning, where a stalled frontal boundary lingers & surface winds are calm. Dense fog advisory remains in effect until 9 AM, with trends being monitored for possible extensions through mid-morning. Quigley && .SHORT TERM... Issued 1001 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Overnight through Wednesday: The elevated environment will remain unstable as we remain in the warm sector with upper divergence, weak vorticity advection, and mid level warm air advection overhead. This will allow for a few storms to percolate across portions of central and southern WI overnight. Given the lingering high MUCAPE, a few storms could approach marginal severe levels at times and bear watching. The threat will wane as the night goes on and as the LLJ veers. The effective surface boundary should be stationed over northern IL Wednesday morning as a weak mid level shortwave trough tracks across the region. Southern WI may see scattered showers and a few thunderstorms with the overriding of the boundary in the morning and midday Wed. A deeper shortwave trough will track across NE Wed morning and into western IA by early evening. The associated surface low on the leading edge should help lift that boundary into southern WI during the late afternoon and evening hours. Storms within the warm sector will have the potential for severe-level hail and wind. Heavy rain is a threat with this system. We may need an areal flood watch. Meanwhile, there will be a steady northeast wind off Lake Michigan and keep the air stable with low clouds and patchy fog, especially north of Milwaukee. How far inland the fog/stratus get Wed morning is still uncertain. Wherever the boundary between the lake air and the warm, unstable air lands Wed afternoon, this will be an extra focus for low level helicity and the potential for a brief tornado along this boundary if storms become strong enough. Cronce && .LONG TERM... Issued 1001 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Thursday through Tuesday: That deeper shortwave trough that went across IA Wed night will track across southern WI Thursday morning. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected with this feature, especially in the morning with deeper moisture still in place over the region. The chance for showers and thunderstorms will linger into the afternoon. As the deeper moisture departs during this time and we heat up, the low level lapse rates will increase to allow for instability (up to 1000 j/kg) to develop. A lake breeze should push inland and help to trigger some of the showers/storms. Look for the precip chances to exit by sunset. High pressure will pass through Thursday night and lows will dip into the 40s wherever the lake breeze hit, so bisecting southern WI from east to west. Friday morning and early afternoon look quiet, but we will be getting primed for the next system to arrive Friday late afternoon and night. Low pressure tracking across the northern Plains on Friday, in response to a high-amplitude upper trough, will cross Lake Superior Friday night. A strong cold front will slide across WI from west to east late Friday night through Saturday morning. Showers are thunderstorms are expected within the warm sector Friday afternoon/evening and also along the cold front. Scattered showers are possible behind the front during the day Saturday. Strong cold air advection will follow, so low temps should dip down to around or below freezing Saturday night on brisk westerly winds. The models dry out the atmosphere quickly, but if there happens to be any lingering moisture, the precip type would chance to flurries/snow. Brisk westerly winds will persist through Sunday. Finally, high pressure will dominate and give us dry weather through Monday or Tuesday. The weather pattern has a large degree of uncertainty beyond Monday between the models. Cronce && .AVIATION... Issued 645 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Rain exits late this morning, with additional shower and storm development possible later today. Reduced CIGs and VIS readings will accompany storms. Quigley && .MARINE... Issued 1001 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A stationary front will remain parked over the middle third of the lake into tomorrow, slowly sinking south to the southern end of the lake by Thursday morning. Winds will remain southerly south of the front and modestly breezy, while winds north of the front will remain light and variable to northerly during this time. The front will clear the lake as a cold front Friday, before low pressure of 29.6 inches approaches from the west. Thunderstorms are possible over the southern third overnight into Thursday morning, then Thursday late afternoon and night. Thunderstorm chances return along a cold front Friday night. Cronce && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Dense Fog Advisory...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ056-WIZ057 until 9 AM Wednesday. LM...Dense Fog Advisory...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563- LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646-LMZ669-LMZ671- LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874- LMZ876-LMZ878 until 7 AM Thursday. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee  567 FXUS63 KDMX 151158 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 658 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...Updated for the 12z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Slight Risk for severe storms expended more to the west today. All modes of severe weather possible, with a locally higher tornado threat along the I-80 corridor. - Enhanced Risk expanded for Friday, covering much of the eastern half of the state. - Much cooler over the weekend with a hard freeze likely in northern Iowa Saturday night. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 312 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Showers and storms continued overnight, with the surface warm front appearing to remain stalled diagonally across the center of the CWA, seen best by the Td discontinuity between sites such as KDSM and KBNW. Water vapor imagery showed the main circulation for today traversing off the Rockies and into the High Plains. A dry slot could be seen intruding into southeastern Nebraska, with the surface dry line residing in Kansas. Showers and isolated storms will continue to fester in the warm sector through at least the early morning hours, fueled in part by the interacting upper-level jet maxes. The southern jet max will round into the warm sector later this morning, the wind field below unidirectional and similarly enhanced. The dry slot will move into Iowa ahead of the cold front this morning, increasing capping and mid-level lapse rates. Trends have favored a lull in precipitation around midday, opening the opportunity for potential clearing ahead of the main severe window in the afternoon. MLCAPE values will approach 1500 J/kg. Deep-layer shear over 50kts will provide good ventilation for storms and favor supercells, but low-level shear lacks today, reducing SRH available for tornadoes. The exception will be near the triple point as localized backing of surface winds will elongate hodographs. 00z CAMs had consensus of a longer-lived UH streak following the path of the triple point, with neighboring super cells taking advantage of the NSE on the warm front. This will be the region where the threat for tornadoes is the highest, and have collaborated with SPC to add in a 5% tornado risk area, focused along and near the I-80 corridor. A line of storms will form along the cold front in southern Iowa and pose a wind threat, although capping will allow for discrete modes to start, adding in large hail and isolated tornadoes to the mix. Cold front initiation will begin near the I-35 corridor. Thunderstorms will follow the departure of the surface low and be fueled mainly by the upper-level trough. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 1239 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 On Thursday a weak ridge will move through Iowa, providing a most welcome respite in the form of a dry, mostly sunny, and mild day with highs roughly in the 75-80 degree range and modest breezes. By Thursday night however, an even deeper longitudinal 500 MB trough will be moving into the Rockies, heralding more active weather to end the week. A surface cyclone will develop in the Southern High Plains with a long inverted trough and sharp baroclinic zone extending northeastward across the Midwest. By Friday morning this front will span from central Kansas, across northwestern Iowa, and into western Wisconsin. Destabilization will occur ahead of the front during the day Friday, and by the afternoon CAPE of 1500-2500 J/KG is likely in at least parts of our area, mainly the southern half. Deep-layer shear will be fairly modest and mostly in the form of speed shear, however the strong dynamic forcing ahead of the approaching trough, convergence along the front, and increasing instability will combine with this shear to be more than sufficient to support severe weather potential Friday afternoon and evening, as outlined by SPC outlooks. The storm system will push quickly through Friday night and clear us out, though there may be some light wraparound precipitation in our northern counties lingering into Saturday as the final lobe of the 500 MB trough moves by. With much colder air surging in behind the late Friday front and temperatures expected to fall into the 30s across much of our area by early Saturday, a few flakes of snow cannot be ruled out in northern Iowa but no real accumulation or impact would be expected. Highs on Saturday will be nearly 30 degrees cooler than on Friday, ranging in the mid-40s to mid-50s, then falling even further Saturday night into Sunday morning with lows in the upper 20s to mid-30s across Iowa resulting in a frost/freeze in many areas. The good news is this cooler weather will be short- lived, as a ridging pattern sets up in the first half of next week supporting a gradual warming trend. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 658 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A few areas of thunderstorms remain mainly over portions of central to southern Iowa this morning. Any remaining storms this morning may move over KOTM and KFOD in in the next few hours, with otherwise showers expected. Additional and more scattered showers and storms are expected to develop this afternoon to evening across much of the state, with severe weather possible at times. Exact timing and coverage will be further refined in the early afternoon update given latest trends. Low clouds are expected otherwise to increase this morning otherwise, with MVFR/IFR ceilings expected across all sites, while any storms later in the day could also lead to similar conditions as well. Winds will remain variable across the state given the boundary draped across central Iowa, with some occasional gusts up to 20-25 mph possible, especially over southern Iowa. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 119 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Multiple rounds of seasonally moderate to heavy rain this week will lead to renewed flooding concerns. Concerns will include possible renewed or additional river flooding as well as flash flooding. Output from the GFS- and NBM-forced medium-range National Water Model (NWM) and the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System (HEFS) suggest the most likely scenario will be moderate to significant within-bank rises on many rivers and streams across the CWA over the next week, especially across the southeast half. Some locations may see minor river flooding as well. These rises will be due to the additive effect of multiple rounds of rainfall. If rainfall is higher than presently forecast then the risk of several locations seeing minor flooding and a few locations seeing moderate flooding will increase. Flash flooding is less of a concern than river flooding, however the risk is nonzero. The additive effect of rain events will result in a slightly higher risk of flash flooding from Friday into Saturday. The most likely scenario through the end of this week will be ponding of water or low-end flash flooding especially in urban areas or areas that receive repeated heavy rainfall over a relatively short time period. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Jimenez LONG TERM...Lee AVIATION...Bury HYDROLOGY...Zogg  995 FXUS63 KLOT 151158 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 658 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Additional waves of showers and thunderstorms are expected early this morning through tonight. Some could be severe and produce heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding. - A brief break in the pattern is expected late Thursday into the day on Friday before another storm system arrives Friday evening into early Saturday. - Cooler air arrives into early next week and may bring frost/freeze concerns early Sunday and Monday mornings. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 343 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Through Tonight: An elongated axis of elevated showers and thunderstorms continues early this morning from southeast Nebraska through southern Michigan. Some of these storms have taken advantage of a small area of steeper mid-level lapse rates amidst strong effective shear to 50 kt and managed to produce severe hail. Isolated strong to severe storms will remain possible through early this morning. There remains a fair amount of uncertainty with respect to how convective trends unfold the remainder of the day owing to the potential for multiple "waves" of showers and storms. Each model and their respective runs vary on the details, including timing and placement of the different bands of storms and how they interact with each other (outflows, cold pools, etc.). It does appear that after this initial round of stronger storms early this mornings sags farther east and southeast there may be a temporary decrease in the thunderstorm coverage during the rest of the morning hours when lapse rates here locally decrease. Once we get into the afternoon hours the threat of severe weather increases again as lapse rates steepen allowing instability to quickly build over the area (MLCAPE of 2000+ J/kg) amidst ample deep layer shear. The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded the rest of the area to a Level 2 of 5 severe thunderstorm risk which seems appropriate, with the primary hazard being damaging wind gusts with any embedded bowing segments. A locally higher hail threat may materialize with any embedded semi-discrete supercells. Another concern for today is the potential for flash flooding as additional waves of heavy rainfall potentially occur over the same areas. Have extended the Flood Watch in duration and area to account for this. Thursday: A compact shortwave and associated weak surface low/MCV is forecast to move across or near the area during the day on Thursday which will likely be accompanied by additional scattered showers and non-severe thunderstorms. Once that moves off to the east a very brief break in the wet and stormy pattern is expected Thursday night through the day on Friday. Temperatures on Thursday will also end up cooler (albeit still unseasonably warm) with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s, coolest across far northeast Illinois. Friday - Saturday: Strong southerly warm and moist convection will return into the day on Friday ahead of an approaching cold front. This boundary is expected to progress across the area sometime late Friday into early Saturday morning paired with a line of thunderstorms, some of which could be severe. Suspect that less favorable diurnal timing of any lingering storms into the morning on Saturday may limit the overall severe threat here locally before storms reintensify east of the area into the rest of the day. Stay tuned! Saturday night onward: In the wake of the early Saturday cold front, a much colder airmass (relative to what we have had over the past several days) will settle into the region over the weekend. Overnight low temperatures may drop into the 30s, with some near to sub- freezing temperatures possible across interior northern Illinois. Lighter winds in place Sunday night may allow for frost development outside of Chicago and will be something for those with agricultural interests to monitor over the next few days. The cooler conditions will be rather short-lived with extended guidance favoring a return toward high amplitude ridging across the central CONUS and unseasonably warm temperatures returning to the region by midweek next week. Petr && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 658 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Main Concerns: - In the wake of morning SHRA and isolated embedded TS, the potential exists for additional SHRA/TSRA this afternoon and evening, with low confidence in specifics. A fairly coherent area of showers extends back to about the MS River as of this writing. Included VCTS until mid morning for the Chicago metro terminals to account for a few taller convective cores that may produce sporadic lightning. More widespread TS over far western IL should remain safely south of the TAF sites as they lifts northeast through the morning. In the wake of the morning activity, there should be a few to several hour window with isolated to scattered SHRA at most near the terminals. It remains quite unclear where additional SHRA/TSRA will develop this afternoon. More recent guidance has tended to favor south of the terminals this afternoon, with a better chance of TS holding off until this evening. Given the aforementioned lower confidence in specifics, opted to transition back to a broader PROB30 while maintaining the VCTS from previous issuances. Variable/erratic and strong/gusty winds may occur in any on station TS impacts. Wind variability in the wake of the storms would likely follow. Outside of convection, winds will favor a southwest to west direction through Thursday morning, with occasional gusts to ~20 kt. Castro && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Flood Watch through late tonight for ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005- ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ019-ILZ020- ILZ021-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ103-ILZ104-ILZ105-ILZ106-ILZ107- ILZ108. IN...Flood Watch through late tonight for INZ001-INZ002-INZ010- INZ011. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago  454 FXUS61 KCLE 151159 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 759 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The previous forecast largely remains on track with multiple rounds of thunderstorms (some severe) and heavy rain expected through Thursday and again on Saturday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Multiple rounds of severe weather are possible through Thursday with another round of convection possible Saturday as the active pattern continues. All severe weather hazards are possible. 2) Repeated rounds of moderate to heavy rain are likely through early Thursday. A Flood Watch remains in effect for Northwest Ohio, where confidence in flooding is highest. 3) Above normal temperatures will continue through Saturday before cooler temperatures return Sunday into early next week. Frost/freeze headlines may be needed for Ohio counties Sunday night and Monday night. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Multiple rounds of convection are expected through Wednesday as a frontal boundary wavers to the north of the local area. Additional storms are likely as an upper trough axis moves across the area late Thursday with another round of storms likely as a stronger cold front approaches from the west on Saturday. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible with each round of convection. See the following breakdown below for more details: Today: The first round of convection is currently moving into the local area. The warm, moist flow and LLJ could support convective maintenance on the southern flank of the line for at least the next few hours, although the shear environment is less optimal across the local area. All convective hazards will be on the table but damaging wind gusts will definitely be the primary concern with a few tornadic spin-ups possible on the leading edge of the line. CAMs suggest that storms will weaken as they move across the area, which would likely result in boundaries left behind that will serve as a focus for convective initiation/enhancement later today. Similar to Tuesday, multiple rounds of scattered thunderstorms are possible throughout the day today with stronger convection possible later this afternoon into this evening. The deep, moist flow will allow for efficient destabilization this afternoon with MLCAPE values of 1500-2500 J/kg and deep shear values of 40+ knots anticipated. This would support organized convection and potential for another round of strong to severe storms with all hazards (especially damaging winds) possible. That said, given the reliance on mesoscale features for forcing, confidence in the exact timing and placement of storms is medium at best. There is a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) of severe weather across the entire area today. Thursday: Upper level support will be a bit better on Thursday the frontal boundary finally pushes southeast as a weak cold front. Scattered showers/storms remain possible in the warm air advection regime Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon with more organized convection likely with the front later Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. Damaging wind gusts will be the main threat, but hail and a few tornadoes can't be ruled out considering the wind field. There is a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) across the entire local area. Saturday: A brief respite in showers and thunderstorm chances is anticipated on Friday, however yet another round of storms (possibly strong to severe) will return as the next cold front, which will be stronger than Thursday's, approaches. Given moist return flow ahead of the front, all severe hazards are possible. KEY MESSAGE 2... Regardless of the severity of storms, very heavy rainfall with rates of at least 1-2 inches is likely with any thunderstorms given PWAT values of 1.25-2 inches in place across the area. There's some potential for training with the line of stronger storms moving into the area this morning and localized flooding will be possible for the first several hours of the forecast period. At the very least, this early morning convection will serve as yet another primer for additional heavy rainfall in thunderstorms later today into tonight. There are still concerns for backbuilding and/or training late today as storm motion becomes more parallel to the frontal boundary to the north. Widespread rainfall totals between this morning and Thursday will be between 1-2 inches (generally along and north of US Route 30), although locally higher amounts of at least 2-4 inches are possible, especially across Northwest Ohio where the Flood Watch is in effect. Flooding concerns are highest for the more responsive/flashy waterways and typical poor drainage/urban areas. Outside of Northwest Ohio, the location of the highest QPF values and the resulting highest flooding risk remain uncertain given relatively low confidence in the exact placement of thunderstorms. KEY MESSAGE 3... Persistent warm air advection will result in well above normal temperatures through Saturday. Instead of normal lower 60s for highs, highs will be in the 70s with lower 80s possible in areas that experience any clearing today. Cooler temperatures will likely materialize in the event of persistent cloud cover and precipitation. It will also be quite muggy thanks to dew points in the lower 60s. Temperatures will temporarily moderate to below normal values in the 50s Sunday and Monday, but guidance favors a warming trend by the middle of next week. The growing season has officially started for Ohio counties and frost/freeze headlines will likely be needed as temperatures tank into the lower 30s and possibly upper 20s on Sunday night. Additional headlines may be needed across Northeast Ohio on Monday night. && .AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/... There is very low confidence aviation forecast through Thursday morning. Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected today across the airspace. To start, scattered showers are present near Lake Erie and will filter in and out of KTOL and KERI. New showers and storms will develop to the southwest this afternoon and move northeast across the terminals. Storms could be as early as 18z/2PM in NW OH or could be well delayed as late as 00z/8PM. Have gone with some combination of the HRRR and 3km NAM for storm timing right now, but this will need to be reassessed throughout the day. Additional storms could redevelop this evening or overnight depending on the timing of the first round of convection. Winds will be variable to start with a outflow boundary across the area but winds will eventually settle on a south to southwest direction with this boundary lifting back north. Outlook...Periods of non-VFR conditions are expected in showers and thunderstorms through Thursday. Additional non-VFR possible in showers and storms on Saturday. && .MARINE... A broken line of thunderstorms will cross Lake Erie early this morning and could be strong to severe. Thunderstorms will act to disrupt winds which could shift around to the northwest for a period of time. Winds will switch back around to the southwest on Wednesday at 10-20 knots with additional strong thunderstorms possible. Low pressure will track east across the Central Great Lakes on Thursday, with southwest winds veering to the northwest behind a cold front Thursday night. Southwest winds develop out of the southeast on Saturday and veer to southwesterly at 15-20 knots. Winds will be elevated at 20-25 knots behind the cold front Saturday night and a Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed heading into Sunday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for OHZ003-006>009-018- 019. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...15 AVIATION...Sefcovic MARINE...10