649 FXUS61 KOKX 151206 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 806 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... High temperatures were increased at the CT and NY coasts thru Thu. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Well above normal temperatures through Friday. 2) Showers and thunderstorms possible through Friday, mainly each afternoon and evening. 3) Strong cold front Sunday with temperatures returning to below normal Sunday night through Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Like yesterday, boosted temps across the NY and CT coasts abv the NBM guidance, in some places by several degrees. Many of these spots verified even warmer than the adjustments made yesterday, but with onshore component flow, kept the fcst withing the MOS guideposts. Didn't alter the Fri numbers with an increasing likelihood of a shrtwv trof passing thru not only reducing heights but triggering shwrs and tstms. .KEY MESSAGE 2... With the H3 jet residing over QC thru Thu, the main zone for convective initiation and convergence should be N of the area thru the period. Supporting this, model timeheights show a good deal of synoptic subsidence over the area. Nevertheless, it remains possible that shwrs and tstms could reach the cwa based on sely storm motion, and the cold pool driven movement and redevelopment, and potential outflow boundaries. One feature to watch which could alter this setup today is the MCS near Lake Erie. It is modeled to track N of the area and dissipate today, but if this feature ends up further S it could end up being a trigger locally. For Fri, will still be watching the potential passage of shrtwv trof during the day. This could spark a round of svr if daytime timing is realized. The feature is still invof CO/NE so confidence in the exact timing is low attm. .KEY MESSAGE 3... A strong cold front is forecast to move through the region during Sunday, while there are still some timing difference, consenus is for a cold frontal passage Sunday afternoon. Showers will accompany the passage, with a chance of thunder as well. After a prolonged period of above normal temperatures, the cold front passage will return temperatures to several degrees below normal Sunday night through Tuesday. The AI-GFS has H85 temps around -12C at 12Z Tue. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure will remain in place to the south through the period. As weak low pressure and a trailing cold front move across upstate New York today, a prefrontal trough will extend southward into the area this afternoon and evening. VFR through much of the day today, with chance of showers/tstms and brief MVFR/IFR cond with the prefrontal trough late today NW of the NYC metros, and spreading SE to all terminals into this evening. Timing uncertain and may need to be pushed forward into tonight. Light SW flow should become SW 10-15 kt inland and S along the coast by afternoon, with some gusts over 20 kt at the NYC metros north/west and with the sea breeze at KJFK/KISP. Winds diminish to less than 10 kt by 00Z-01Z Thu. LLWS possible late this evening after any showers/tstms pass, with WSW flow 35-40 kt at FL020. Fog with IFR cond also possible late tonight at KGON/KBDR/KISP, and MVFR cond at the NYC metros. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Chances for showers/tstms tonight may occur a couple of hrs later than forecast. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... Thursday: Any early morning MVFR/IFR cond should improve quickly to VFR by 13Z. Friday: Chance of showers and possibly a tstm especially in the afternoon and early evening, with MVFR or lower cond. Saturday: VFR. Sunday: Chance of showers with MVFR cond possible. W winds G20kt in the afternoon. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Winds and seas are expected to remain blw SCA lvls thru Sat. A strong frontal sys will increase winds and waves by late in the day Sun, with SCA cond likely by Sun ngt. The SCA winds and waves are modeled to continue thru Mon. && .CLIMATE... Daily record high temperatures that could be reached: Wed, April 15: KEWR: 88/1960 KBDR: 81/1960 KNYC: 87/1941 KLGA: 86/1941 KJFK: 80/2006 KISP: 78/2024 Daily record high minimum temperatures that could be reached: Wed, April 15: KEWR: 60/2023 KBDR: 53/2012 KNYC: 67/1941 KLGA: 64/1941 KJFK: 58/1960 KISP: 56/2023 Thu, April 16: KEWR: 64/2002 KBDR: 53/2002 KNYC: 69/2002 KLGA: 68/2002 KJFK: 57/2002 KISP: 55/2012 Fri, April 17: KEWR: 68/2002 KBDR: 57/2002 KNYC: 74/2002 KLGA: 73/2002 KJFK: 60/2002. KISP: 61/2002 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION... AVIATION... MARINE...  324 FXUS64 KJAN 151208 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 708 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of dense fog are possible this morning, especially in portions of southeast Mississippi. - There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms in the US Highway 82 corridor on Thursday. - Chances for more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity increase Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 346 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Through This Morning: As we saw yesterday morning, moisture return into the region, in conjunction with radiational cooling overnight is creating a fog along the Mississippi and Alabama Gulf Coasts, spreading north into portions of southeast Mississippi. Issued a Dense Fog Advisory where confidence in areas of fog is greatest, but some patchy fog could develop farther north and west than the Pine Belt by sunrise as well. Today through Tuesday: Fog development is expected again late tonight into Thursday morning, spreading from the Gulf Coast into at least central Mississippi with advection/radiation effects. A dominant surface high and upper-level ridge over the Southeast US will blunt the chance for an approaching cold front to make its way too far south into our area on Thursday. Timing looks a little faster with the shortwave, and may miss best daytime heating. The 20-30% chances for showers and thunderstorms were trimmed back into the US Highway 82 corridor. A re-strengthening of the ridge will bring dry conditions back to the forecast area, and high temperatures on Friday will even flirt with 90 degrees for most locations in our forecast area. An amplifying upper-level pattern will bring a trough and cooler surface air into the High Plains by Friday night into Saturday. The resulting low pressure system will still be far to our north around the Great Lakes, but a stronger cold front should push through our area Saturday night into Sunday. Expect increased moisture ahead of the frontal passage, with the best chance (60%) of the next 7 days for showers and thunderstorms to impact the area. The surface high behind this system will be fairly strong for mid-April. 1025+ mb is about 1 to 2 standard deviations above normal across the Mid-South. Cooler weather is expected (and dry) in the wake of this frontal passage. Widespread low temperatures in the 40s are achievable Sunday night into Monday. /NF/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 705 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Areas of dense fog and low stratus are producing widespread IFR to LIFR conditions in southern and eastern portions of the forecast area. Expect a lifting and mixing of the layer to prevailing VFR conditions at all sites by around 15Z-16Z today. Another round of IFR conditions around KHBG and KPIB is expected before 12Z Thursday. /NF/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 84 63 86 64 / 0 0 10 0 Meridian 85 60 86 61 / 0 0 10 0 Vicksburg 86 63 87 65 / 0 0 10 0 Hattiesburg 85 62 87 62 / 0 0 10 0 Natchez 85 64 87 64 / 0 0 10 0 Greenville 86 67 86 66 / 0 10 30 10 Greenwood 86 66 85 66 / 0 0 20 10 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MSZ049>052- 055>058-063>066-072>074. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ NF  342 FXUS63 KDVN 151210 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 710 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rounds of showers and storms are expected through tonight. Additional severe storms are possible, mainly this afternoon and evening. The entire area is in a Slight Risk (level 2/5) for severe weather. - Threat for flash flooding from the potential for repeated rounds of storms and high rainfall rates through this evening. Greatest concern is north of the Hwy 30 corridor where the ground is saturated from recent heavy rains of 1-3+ inches. Any additional heavy rain in these areas will increase the risk for flooding, and a Flood Watch has been issued through this evening. - SPC has expanded the Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) for severe weather to include much of the area Friday. Damaging winds and tornadoes appear to be the primary threats. - Turning much cooler/seasonable this weekend with the potential for frost/freeze conditions Saturday night and again Sunday night. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 351 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Showers and storms are widespread early this morning north of Hwy 34 aided by ascent from a weak mid level impulse and elevated warm, moist advection atop a cool pool with an outflow boundary near a Princeton, IL to Mount Pleasant, IA line continuing to advance southeastward. Some gusty winds and isolated hail cannot be ruled out across the south where a moderately unstable environment has largely been left undisturbed until now. In addition, a veered LLJ is leading to at least a temporary favorable setup for a period of training of convection and locally heavy rain immediately north of the outflow. Anticipate a gradual decrease in coverage by mid to late morning, with the waning nocturnal LLJ and passage of the shortwave. The break in activity may allow for some recovery or destabilization to occur ahead of a more vigorous shortwave trough and attendant surface low lifting through western Iowa this evening. The amount of recovery/destabilization is uncertain and thus some uncertainty exists with the magnitude/ coverage of severe storms later today through this evening. That being said, higher confidence exists on more widespread coverage of storms this afternoon into tonight due to the arrival of stronger dynamics/forcing aided by 50-70m height falls at 500 hPa and more robust mid level flow with 50-60+ kt winds 700-500 hPa. This should foster more widespread convection by later today and tonight with an attendant severe threat with all hazards in play. The lifting low should help lift the remnant outflow back northward as a pseudo-warm front by this evening. While overall low level shear is much weaker, there will be a tornado threat perhaps mostly focused along/near this boundary with any cells that can ingest the enhanced SRH. Right now this boundary placement looks to be roughly between Hwy 30 and Hwy 34 by this evening, and thus the higher 5% tornado probabilities in this area mainly on the Iowa side where shear is a bit higher being in closer proximity to the lifting surface low. The strong deep layer shear will provide good venting aloft and combined with a rather perpendicular vector to the initiating boundary will prove favorable for discrete supercells initially with all hazards in play. Then in time, we may see a more mixed mode with perhaps more muticell/linear evolution taking place tonight ahead of the advancing cold front, with largely a resulting wind and isolated tornado threat. Potential for repeated storms and periods of high rainfall rates of 1+ inch/hr will foster a threat for heavy rain and flooding. The greatest risk or most vulnerable area appears to be north of Hwy 30 where the ground is saturated from recent heavy rainfall of 1-3 inches, and as a result I have issued a Flood Watch through this evening. This activity should start to diminish by late evening and overnight with the passage of the cold front. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 351 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A short period of drier weather is expected by Thursday afternoon through Friday morning, as a bout of high pressure quickly traverses the region. As the high departs Friday afternoon, return flow/warm advection will commence and strengthen with a warm front lifting northward into the region. We will have to watch for any storm development in the afternoon along the lifting warm front. Currently though this potential is looking somewhat lower due to some capping and lack of synoptic scale ascent. The main corridor for severe storm development Friday PM looks to be to our west ahead of a cold front and deeper surface low attendant to a lifting shortwave. Very strong wind fields with parallel vector orientation to the cold front should support a fairly quick transition and upscale growth to a line of storms or QLCS, which should then sweep eastward across the area during the evening and early overnight with mainly an attendant damaging wind threat, and tornado threat with any embedded mesovorts. SPC has expanded the Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) to include much of the service area for Friday. The strong cold front will sweep through the area late Friday night/early Saturday. In the wake, scattered showers are possible Saturday PM in the cyclonic flow/cold advection. Otherwise, blustery and much cooler/seasonable conditions are on tap Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures look to dip down around or possibly below freezing in parts of the area both nights leading to the potential for frost (should winds decouple) and/or freeze conditions. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 639 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 The main area of showers and thunderstorms continues to move slowly to the northeast this morning with the back edge exiting KCID at this time. Periods of rain showers are possible this morning into the afternoon. Another line is forecast to develop this afternoon after 22 UTC and move from west to east across the area through 6 UTC. MVFR to possible IFR conditions are possible during thunderstorms. After the storms, MVFR to IFR ceilings are possible with stratus. Gusty southwest of 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Winds will turn to the west after 06 UTC. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...Flood Watch through this evening for IAZ040>042-051>054. IL...Flood Watch through this evening for ILZ001-002-007. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...McClure LONG TERM...McClure AVIATION...Cousins  372 FXUS62 KTBW 151216 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 816 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Critical RH values across the region the next few days. - Above average temperatures continue through the week. - Moderate to extreme drought conditions continue. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 306 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 The synoptic pattern will remain relatively unchanged through the week and into the weekend producing rain-free conditions and above average temperatures. Persistent upper ridging extending over Florida as well as surface high pressure near Bermuda ridging west- southwestward over Florida and into the eastern Gulf waters will continue to dominate the weather pattern. PWAT values will remain below 1 inch through the week and into the weekend resulting in rain- free conditions and well above average temperatures through the week. Moisture will slightly increase on Sunday ahead of a weak front expected to move through on Monday. Rain chances will remain on the low side (10-20 percent) on Monday and Tuesday next week. Daytime highs will top out in the mid to upper 80s through Thursday, then reaching the 90s in some areas late week and into the weekend. Mild overnight lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s expected through the forecast period. Slightly cooler temperatures closer to average expected for the first part of next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 815 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions through the period with winds generally out of the east. && .MARINE... Issued at 306 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 High pressure near Bermuda ridges across Florida and into the eastern Gulf waters keeping a persistent east-southeast wind flow 15 knots or less over the region through the week and into the weekend. Winds will turn onshore during the afternoon/evening as the sea breeze sets up. This high pressure will also keep rain-free conditions over the Gulf waters through the end of the week and into the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 306 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 High pressure ridging over the area will keep rain-free conditions over the area through the week. Some critical RH values below 35 percent expected during the week, but light winds below 15 mph will preclude the need for any Red Flag Warnings. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 87 65 87 66 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 87 62 88 65 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 87 60 88 63 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 85 64 85 64 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 89 55 88 57 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 86 68 86 69 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley DECISION SUPPORT...Pearce UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Pearce  203 FXUS65 KGGW 151224 AFDGGW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 624 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Below normal temperatures Thursday and Friday with gusty NW winds. - Rain tonight with rain changing to snow on Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Surface low pressure over the southern Prairie provinces will remain to our north through this morning. An upper trough dropping into the Pacific Northwest will help to redevelop the surface low over central Montana today. This low will track across eastern Montana tonight with a cold front which will allow colder air to drop into Montana while a moisture stream punches northeast through Montana. Rainfall is expected to begin over the western zones this evening and spread east overnight. Colder air will change the rain to snow over the NW zones Thursday morning, the NE zones Thursday afternoon, and remainder of the forecast area Thursday evening before the precipitation ends Thursday night. The deterministic models were wetter with this latest run and thus slightly higher snow totals. Advisory snowfall is possible across most of Phillips, northern Valley and Daniels counties. System moves out Thursday night with QPF footprints over southern Sask and SE Montana. Temps Thursday night drop into the teens north, low 20s south, about 15 degrees below normal. Surface high will lock in the cold over the area Friday with high temps only reaching the 30s to low 40s, possibly only upper 20s near spots along the Canadian border. Surface high drops to our south while upper ridge moves in for Saturday. Temps should rebound into the 40s east to the 50s west (for highs). The warming trend continues into Sunday with highs mainly in the 60s. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: NBM deviations include: - Increased winds Thursday and Thursday evening - Lowered temps Thursday && .AVIATION... LAST UPDATE: 1230Z FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR - IFR DISCUSSION: Expect increasing mid to high clouds during the day as the next system moves in. It should arrive tonight with with MVFR ceilings and rain entering the picture around 05 to 07Z. rain will expected southeast through the evening with IFR ceilings showing up mid-moring Thursday. A transition to snow is expected around that same time. WIND: West to SW and increasing to 10 to 15 knots this afternoon. Becoming light and variable this evening. Then N to NW at 10- 15 kts after midnight. GAH && .GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Lake Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT Thursday for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield- McCone-Petroleum. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow  183 FXUS63 KIWX 151241 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 841 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue through today, though the potential for severe weather remains uncertain with intensity dependent on how previous activity evolves. - Additional chances for showers and thunderstorms exist Thursday through Saturday, with potential for severe weather dependent on the previous thunderstorm activity. - A Flood Watch remains in effect through this evening as swaths of locally heavy rain is expected on already saturated grounds and high river and lake levels. && .UPDATE... Issued at 841 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Quick update to the forecast to increase pops into early afternoon. Small cluster of storms across far southern MI this morning has moved northeast with some occasional light returns further south into N Indiana. Looking back to the SW, radar and sfc obs indicate a MCV in west central IL with an area of showers and storms trying to expand while moving NE. Several of the models suggest this continues NE reaching the area in a few hours and lingering into the early afternoon. HRRR is the more robust with maybe some stronger storm potential. Plenty of shear is in place with instability on the lower side (500-1000 J/KG of MUCAPE) per SPC Mesoanalysis and 12Z KILX sounding. While some increase in temps is expected through the morning, extensive cloud cover will limit overall heating. Will be monitoring trends over the next couple of hours for maybe a "marginal" threat of stg-svr storms. Given the trends, felt it was warranted to keep likely pops for many areas into early afternoon vs the taper off to chc that was in place. Flood watch remains in effect across the northern half. May need to expand southward depending on evolution of the morning convection as well as trends for afternoon/evening storms as PWATs remain in the 1.25 to 1.4" range and depth of warm layer shy of 12,000 ft all point towards a continued heavy rain threat. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1257 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 While a primary trough will lift out of the Rockies into the central plains over the coming 12-18 hours, multiple embedded waves ahead of this trough through the active flow aloft will continue to produce periods of shower and thunderstorm activity across the region today. Forecast soundings depict fairly saturated atmospheric profiles with precipitable water values exceeding 1.2-1.4 inches, which will aid in producing heavy rainfall rates with any thunderstorm that develops. A Flood Watch remains in effect through this evening for the northern half of the forecast area given the potential for heavy rain, though a flooding threat cannot be ruled out further south. The severe thunderstorm threat remains complicated today with instability looking more difficult to come by as early morning convective debris and intermittent shower activity will limit CAPE values. That said, strong mid- level flow with 40-50 knots of 0-6km shear will be more than sufficient for organized convection if adequate surface heating and subsequent destabilization occurs. For now the severe threat today looks conditional but worth watching. A sharper trough moves through the area on Thursday bringing additional chances for showers and thunderstorms. Strong shear and adequate instability should bring another day of at least a marginal severe threat. Attention will then turn to the likely arrival of a much deeper trough by this weekend, which has triggered an early highlight by SPC for severe weather potential on Saturday. A sharp cool-down and gusty winds behind the associated cold front is likely on Sunday, with a moderation in temperatures through the first half of next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 603 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 MVFR/IFR vsbys and MVFR cigs in scattered thunderstorms today for both sites mainly between 16z-21z Wed for both TAF sites and again between 06z-08z Thu for KSBN. Southwesterly winds around 10 kts with stronger gusts around 25kts with thunderstorm outflows. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for INZ005>009-012-014-103-104-116-203-204-216. OH...Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ001-002-004-005. MI...Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ078>081-177-277. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...Fisher DISCUSSION...Edwards AVIATION...Andersen  581 FXUS61 KBGM 151246 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 846 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Syntax changes to the key messages headlines. Otherwise, no major changes to the forecast at this time. Adjusted precipitation and thunder start times, as guidance continues to show a later onset time of strong to severe storms later today. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Strong to severe storms are expected later today, starting in the late afternoon and evening. The main threat will be strong damaging wind gusts. 2) The warm pattern this week will break down later in the weekend, with much colder air arriving into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Today will be similar to yesterday, as the area maintains under the ridge flow pattern with shortwaves and MCS' continuing to ride along the ridge. We're currently monitoring the MCS in Michigan, which will be the driver of some early morning convection around sunrise. Ahead of the approaching system, there's a small pocket of CAPE in Western NY that bleeds a little into our western counties for this forecast area. This will likely lead to a line of storms approaching and pushing into the area from the west, but will likely fizzle slowly out as it moves across mainly Central NY and the Twin Tiers. Going into the afternoon, models continue to show that there will be more CAPE than yesterday (>1000J/kg of surface CAPE) and better shear (>40 knots of 0-6 km shear). If the timing of the mid level wave that triggers the storms is like the current model guidance is showing (in the late afternoon to evening), strong to severe storms are likely, and isolated supercells are possible. SPC maintains a Marginal risk across most of Central NY and NE PA for this potential, with a Slight Risk nearby in Central PA. The main potential threats with Wednesday's storms will be strong to isolated damaging winds, some hail, and training storms bringing heavy downpours that could cause isolated flooding. WPC continues a Marginal Risk for excessive rain, and isolated flash flooding across most of the forecast area for the late afternoon through the overnight hours. We will still be in this warm SW flow pattern going into Thursday, with frequent shortwaves bringing rainfall and afternoon storms. Better forcing arrives late in the day along an incoming cold front. There is uncertainty in the amount of CAPE that ultimately materializes, but with temperatures back in the mid-70s to low 80s, and dew points in the low 60s, instability could again reach moderate levels (1000 J/kg +). This time period will need to be watched closely as 0-6km shear remains elevated between 40-50 kts once again over the region. After the cold front pushes through Thursday night into Friday morning, there will be some lingering showers and a chance for a few storms through the day on Friday. However, overall instability and shear are forecast to be much lower on Friday. Temperatures will also come down some, with highs in the mid-60s to mid-70s expected. KEY MESSAGE 2... While this warm, early summer-like pattern persist through the first half of the weekend, the late weekend into early next week has continued to trend cooler, thanks to a trough digging into our area. With the Great Lakes likely warming up some over the rest of this week, it is possible they would be warm enough to generate lake effect snow shower activity with this pattern, as temperature differentials exceed 15C from the lake surface up to the 850mb level. With the anomalously cold air mass in place it appears daytime highs may stay in the 30s to low 40s on Monday. Very cold overnight lows in the 20s are then expected Monday night into Tuesday morning. It then appears a gradual moderating trend will take hold Tuesday into the middle of next week. As of now, the pattern with the cold is looking dry (outside of lake effect). && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A line of showers and thunderstorms will sweep across the region this morning. As the line moves through, winds may become gusty and visibilities will drop to at least MVFR. The rest of the day is looking dry as confidence has increased that the second round of showers/storms will be late in the day, likely not until the evening. Some of the storms could be strong to severe with strong wind gusts. Given the late timing, the severe potential will decrease after sunset so storms should weaken. Still, additional restrictions are expected with this second round of activity. SYR and RME will potentially be too far north for these thunderstorms, so no thunder was included in their TAFs. There is also uncertainty at AVP if the line will extend that far south. For the other terminals, adjustments were made to the Prob30 groups based on updated model guidance. It should be noted that there continues to be uncertainity with the timing. Following the convective line of showers and storms, ceilings will remain in MVFR to Fuel Alt, at least at the CNY terminals. Showers will continue to develop behind the parting line as well, especially at SYR and RME. Winds will become gusty after the morning line of showers moves through with peak gusts around 20 kts. The winds will then become calmer once again this evening and overnight. Wind direction will vary throughout the day, starting out southerly and becoming more westerly in the afternoon. Outlook: Thursday through Friday...Restrictions possible from showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Early morning fog also possible. Saturday...Additional restrictions look to arrive along with showers and storms late in the day Saturday. Sunday...Restrictions possible from showers. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BJT/KL AVIATION...BTL