977 FXHW60 PHFO 151307 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 307 AM HST Wed Apr 15 2026 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure system lingers far north of the Hawaiian Islands producing light and variable winds with chances for showers into Thursday. A passing high pressure system will bring a short return to easterly trade winds with subtle drying trends from Thursday night into Saturday. A series of low pressure systems passing just north of the state will produce light southeasterly winds from Sunday into the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Looking into the big picture satellite imagery this morning, we see a low pressure system far north of the Hawaiian Islands, along with high and middle clouds drifting across the state associated with divergence under a Sub Tropical Jet stream in the upper levels of the atmosphere. These cloudy skies will linger into early next week with chances for light to moderate showers each day. The low pressure system currently north of the islands will keep lighter large scale winds in the forecast into Thursday. This means local scale island day time heating will drive onshore sea breezes into all islands, building clouds and brief shower trends over island mountains and interior sections peaking during the afternoon hours. A passing high pressure system north of the state from Thursday night into Saturday will briefly build in easterly trade winds across the region. Wind speeds will become strong enough to limit sea breezes to terrain sheltered leeward western slopes of each island. Subtle drying trends will develop during this time period due to a slight increase in subsidence, downward vertical motions creating warming and drying effects, making the atmosphere a bit more stable. However, the return to easterly trade winds will be fleeting and vanish quickly by Sunday as a series of low pressure system develop and slowly track north of the state. These passing lows appear to track far enough north to limit any heavy rainfall or flooding issues for the islands. A weak ridge will settle in over the islands producing a stable southeasterly wind across the region. Any enhanced showers in this wind driven pattern will favor southeast slopes of Maui and the Big Island with modest additional rainfall amounts. Elsewhere rainfall will be limited as the passing cloud bands will move more parallel to island mountains and the Big Island will produce a leeside rain shadow across much of the islands in Maui County. && .AVIATION... Trades should return today. Some isol SHRA and MVFR conds in those SHRA are possible, otherwise VFR prevails. No AIRMETs in effect. && .MARINE... Weak troughing west of the state will help to maintain gentle to locally moderate southeast flow through Thursday. The strongest breezes will occur through the typical windy channels surrounding Maui and the Big Island. Building high pressure then supports moderate to locally fresh trades across the waters Friday into the weekend. A small, short-period, NW swell will continue to diminish into Thursday and remain subdued through the weekend. A small, medium- period, south swell will help boost surf along south shores through Friday, then lower over the weekend. Surf along east shores remains below the seasonal average as trades remain light. However, increasing trades by week's end should brings a slight bump to surf. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Bohlin AVIATION...Walsh MARINE...JT  180 FXUS63 KIND 151318 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 918 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Active pattern this week with near daily chances for showers and storms. Friday likely to be the driest day of the week. - A few rounds of storms expected this afternoon into tonight across Central and North Central Indiana. A few storms may be severe with damaging winds as the main threat. - Near record warm temperatures expected through Saturday with multiple days in the 80s and lows in the 60s. - Much cooler Sunday into early next week with the potential for frost. && .FORECAST UPDATE... Issued at 917 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 As of mid-morning, temperatures have begun a slow rise with most locations having risen into the low 70s. Showers and storms remain west of the forecast area, mainly across western Illinois with a subtle boundary across the northern half of the forecast area where convection from yesterday moved through. An MCV is currently moving across central Illinois which may clip the northwestern counties early this afternoon, especially if it begins to turn right to tap into the boundary. Overall forecast thoughts generally match the ongoing forecast with the storm threat gradually ramping up after 17Z in the northwest with damaging winds being the primary threat due to the generally poor mid and upper level lapse rates. Other than trimming back the morning POPs to align better wit the current dry conditions, no changes were made to the forecast with the main focus through the remainder of the day being focused on the increasing threat for storms. && .DISCUSSION (Today through Tuesday)... Issued at 319 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 An active weather pattern continues for the region this week with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms forecast to move through Central Indiana. Nearly the same synoptic set up is over the Great Lakes and Midwest as the past several days as a strong southwesterly baroclinc zone has set up from the Plains into the Great Lakes. This semi-blocking pattern will remain in place through the week with the most active period for Central Indiana tomorrow afternoon through early Thursday then again on Saturday. The pattern features a modest 80-90 kt southwesterly upper jet extending from West Texas to the Great Lakes with several embedded shortwaves. Underneath the baroclinic zone, these embedded shortwaves have kept an elongated surface low/boundary from the Texas Panhandle through Wisconsin, placing Central Indiana well within the overall warm sector. A strong nocturnal low level jet (LLJ) redevelops each night over Indiana, feeding the multiple complexes of storms riding around the periphery of the overall system. Based on where Indiana is located within the warm sector, the best forcing for ascent and storm complexes remains closer to the synoptic features to the north and west. However as these overnight MCSs die, their leftover outflow boundaries sag southward into Central Indiana. This exact scenario occurred yesterday with afternoon storms developing along these remnant boundaries. CAMs guidance does not do well in these weakly forced set ups with remnant outflow boundaries; therefore, much of the short term forecast will be based off persistence, observations, and how everything evolves upstream. The short term forecast will be lower confidence than usual regarding exact placement and timing of waves of convective development this afternoon into Thursday. But high confidence remains in the overall pattern and associated thunderstorm threats. Today and tonight... Latest satellite imagery shows a large MCS over Michigan and far Northern Indiana currently, progressing east along the warm front, while an additional complex of storms develops over Iowa and Northern Illinois closer to the elongated surface low and cold front. An upper wave along the front range of the Rockies will work to shift this entire system and baroclinic zone eastward over the next 24 hours, placing the area of best forcing for ascent and the storm track closer to Indiana with several rounds of storms expected to impact the region. Mainly dry conditions should persist for Central Indiana for the rest of the morning and early afternoon hours as dry air and subsidence on the south side of these MCSs keep convection out of the area. However for later this afternoon and evening, keeping an eye on what happens with the remnant outflow boundary from the current MCS in Northern Indiana and how it interacts with a mid level shortwave in the Arklatex region moving northeast toward the Ohio Valley. This wave should provide the necessary forcing for convection development this afternoon in Illinois and Indiana along remnant boundaries in the warm sector. Unfortunately, it is difficult to determine where exactly these boundaries will set up at the moment. Current thinking is that areas along and north of I-70 have the best storm threat after 17z this afternoon. The environment will be more than conducive for severe weather as elongated hodographs within an unstable airmass suggest. Weak mid and upper lapse rates may limit the overall hail threat today, but high DCAPE values, and steep low level lapse rates with 30-40 kts of effective shear should be enough to support organized severe storms with a damaging wind threat with isolated tornadoes. Expect multiple rounds of convection going into tonight as the overall storm system begins to shift east. The threat for severe weather during the overnight hours should be more synoptically driven as surface wave moves northeast into the Great Lakes with a trailing front in Indiana. The increasing low level jet overhead ahead of the approaching system will work to increase overnight rounds of storms to the west/southwest which move into Central Indiana. The environment overnight will also be conducive for surface based severe weather within such a moist and unstable environment with increasing wind shear. The main threat going into tonight should still be damaging winds as largely unidirectional flow and speed shear support upscale growth of complexes into lines and bowing segments. Thursday through This Weekend... Ridging briefly builds in on Thursday as the overall system shifts eastward...however another broad southwesterly baroclinic zone quickly sets up over the Plains again with surface cyclogenesis occurring over the upper Midwest. This will place Indiana and much of the region back into a hot and humid pattern within the warm sector of the developing low. Expect a drying trend Thursday as ridging builds in. Little to no cold air on the backside of the front means another above average day with highs well into the 70s, but with slightly lower humidity values due to subsidence under the ridge and dry air mixing down. As a strong warm sector becomes established on Friday over the Plains and Midwest, Indiana will have one full day of dry and very warm weather before the next threat for storms arrives on Saturday. Models show that the surface low with this system will be unphased and tracking ahead of its upper component. This will potentially make Saturday's system more diurnally driven rather than synoptically forced. At this time, strong deep layer flow will be parallel to the cold front which could be enough to form a line of storms with damaging winds being the main concern. Outside of storms, stronger gusts are likely Saturday and into Sunday since the elevated portion of the system will be lagging behind. General gusts Saturday could reach as high as 35-40 mph and around 25 mph on Sunday. There are still some differences on when the associated cold front would exit, but likely sometime late Saturday into the overnight hours, behind which cooler and below normal temperatures will return at least for the first couple of days of the new week. Lows Monday morning could be approaching near freezing to mid-30s. Surface high pressure behind the front looks to track over the Ohio Valley, allowing for dry weather for the start of the new week as well. && .AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 642 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Impacts: - Mainly SSW winds through the TAF period, gusting to 17-28KT - Non-zero chances of additional convection this evening - Multiple rounds of convection 17z Wed - 12z Thu Discussion: Mainly VFR conditions will prevail across central Indiana this evening as satellite imagery shows most of the convective activity in the region well to the west or north. The region remains well within the warm sector of an area of low pressure to the northwest. Waves of energy within the SW flow aloft interacting with leftover boundaries will likely be the focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon into tonight. Mainly VFR cigs and vis outside of storms for the majority of the period. After 17z, widely scatter storms should begin forming along leftover boundaries. Low confidence in exactly where these boundaries set up, however thinking the set up and evolution will be very similar to Tuesday where the greatest threat is along and north of I-70. Kept Prob30 groups for TSRA after 17z at KLAF, KIND, and KHUF where the greatest threat is. Will be able to fine tune exact timing in later forecast issuances once boundaries set up. Brief periods of MVFR or worse conditions with erratic wind speeds and directions under any storm. With numerous waves of showers and storms expected to move through the area, keeping the threat for storms through the end of the TAF period. Outside of storms, breezy, south-southwest flow to prevail through the period, with slight changes in direction possible, especially near any showers. Took out any mention of LLWS overnight through the early morning hours as the boundary layer is remaining well mixed according to obs and local ACARS soundings. Wind gusts of 15-25 kts should prevail through the period. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...White AVIATION...CM DISCUSSION...CM  004 FXAK68 PAFC 151322 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 522 AM AKDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today through Friday)... An upper level ridge has shifted east compared to this time yesterday, now over the Gulf and Southcentral. This is keeping much of the region under the influence of zonal flow near the crest of the flat ridge for the time being. Looking upstream, a fast-moving shortwave trough over Southwest is speeding quickly west towards the Alaska Range, with plenty of mid to upper level cloud cover already spilling across the mountains into the Cook Inlet, Kenai Peninsula and Mat-Su regions. A quick round of light snow along a decaying frontal system moving in tandem with the trough has just recently made it past Kodiak Island, but the rest of Southcentral is still staying dry for the moment. A shift towards a cloudier, wetter and overall more unsettled pattern will take shape over the next few days as a series of shortwave disturbances move northeast from the Pacific and Bering Sea around the ridge in place over the Gulf. The leading shortwave currently over Southwest will move across Southcentral from west to east today. This feature will send a quick round of light precipitation first across the Cook Inlet and Mat-Su Valleys late this morning into the early afternoon, then out towards much of the Copper Basin later in the day. Given the timing, precipitation could start as snow, but will likely mix with rain as temperatures warm into the upper 30s to low 40s during the afternoon hours. The best chance for measurable snowfall will be focused over the mountains, with little to no accumulation expected over valleys closer to sea level through this evening. From tonight into Thursday morning, the main upper ridge will amplify temporarily and build back into eastern parts of Southcentral and towards the AlCan border as flow begins to shift more out of the southwest with time. The next system will begin to move up past Kodiak Island early Thursday as a front tied to a Bering low moves up into the southwestern Gulf. The spread in timing for this next frontal system as it heads northeast into Southcentral has improved with the latest model guidance, and it now looks like the next round of more widespread rain/snow will arrive in most spots late Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. A coastal ridge building out ahead of the front will likely support southerly gap winds in the usual spots on Thursday afternoon, including through the Turnagain Arm, Knik Valley and Copper River Valley. Temperatures close to sea level will again be warm enough for a rain/snow mix initially as the next round of precipitation begins, with a transition to mainly snow overnight on Thursday night. By Friday, the upper portion of the low moving into Southwest will open up into a trough, shifting east and becoming negatively- tilted as it heads into the western parts of the outlook area by Friday evening. This will extend steady precipitation into at least Friday evening, especially where southerly flow ahead of the trough enhances the intensity over south-facing slopes of the Chugach Range, Kenai Mountains and Alaska Range. Accumulating snowfall will be most notable through mountain passes, with around 6 inches of total snowfall possible near Paxson and around 7 inches through Thompson Pass between Thursday morning and Friday afternoon. A generally unsettled, wet and fall-like pattern will likely continue into the upcoming weekend. -AS && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:)... Currently, a series of shortwaves is passing through the Bering. This is allowing for widespread mixed precipitation across the Bering and the Southwest Mainland. Cooler air in the Southwest Mainland will allow for snowfall to continue for a bit longer. 1 to 2 inches of additional snowfall is expected over the Kuskokwim regions and Bristol Bay through Thursday. Continued shortwaves will allow for precipitation chances over the mainland to linger through Friday. The Bering will see precipitation chances dwindle by Thursday as a ridge sets up. Though a stronger shortwave will cause small craft winds in the western Aleutians through Wednesday, winds across Southwest Alaska will generally be sub- small craft in the Bering and weaker over the mainland through Thursday. A strong North Pacific Low rises into the Western Aleutians on Friday. Storm force winds as well as a period of mixed precipitation and rainfall are expected to impact the Adak region. The low will move northeastward through the Bering, spreading a large swath of precipitation over the weekend. Gale force winds will move into the rest of the Aleutians as well as the Pribilof Islands through Saturday. A small period of blowing snow may impact the Pribilof Islands early Saturday before temperatures warm. There are still uncertainties regarding the exact strength and track of this low, so changes in the forecast are likely as the low approaches. -JAR && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)... An active patter will persist from Friday through Monday as a broad low-pressure system remains anchored over the Bering Sea. A strong North Pacific storm moving into the region on Friday will bring heavy rain and gale-force winds to the Western and Central Aleutians, while moisture spreads across Southcentral Alaska, maintaining cloudy skies and precipitation through Saturday. By Sunday and into Monday, the system will pull cooler air back into the region, likely turning precipitation into a rain-snow mix for the Alaskan Peninsula and Southwest coast. While specific timing remains a little uncertain, the overall pattern suggests continued unsettled weather for both Southcentral and Southwest Alaska with temperatures hovering near seasonal averages. -DD && .AVIATION... PANC...Clouds above 5000 ft roll back in this morning. Ceilings will occasionally dip into MVFR starting early afternoon. Light mixed precipitation will be possible late morning through early evening. -PA && $$  240 FXUS61 KLWX 151339 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 939 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Small Craft Advisory was issued this morning for the main channel of the Chesapeake Bay this afternoon. Winds remain below criteria for a fire weather SPS today, but continue to monitor conditions for a Fire Weather Watch tomorrow. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Near-record April heat through Thursday as elevated fire weather conditions persist through Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Near-record April heat through Thursday as elevated fire weather conditions persist through Saturday. Near-record April heat and mostly dry conditions are forecast today and Thursday. Highs will reach the upper 80s to low 90s across the area both days. Humidity will be on the low side, so heat indices are going to be the same (or lower) than air temperatures. Still, those who are sensitive to heat should take steps to avoid heat-related illnesses. There will be showers and thunderstorms in PA this afternoon as another front approaches, but all of the guidance keeps convection north of our area today. The next front arrives Thursday night into Friday, but it won't bring any relief from the heat as temps will still be in the 80s Friday. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible early Friday, but rain amounts will be meager at less than 0.05" for any given area. Saturday looks to be the last day of well above normal temps before a stronger cold front arrives. A deep upper-level trough centered over the northern Great Plains will form later this week, and will begin to make its way towards the East Coast by late this weekend. The 15/00Z model runs are currently well aligned on a Saturday night timeframe for a strong cold front stemming from this trough to track through the Mid- Atlantic. After several days of near-record temperatures in the 80s and 90s, expect a sharp drop in daily highs once this system moves through, with early model runs suggesting a 10-20 degree overall drop in temperatures between Saturday and Monday. Widespread light rainfall is likely to accompany this front with any thunderstorm or severe weather occurring during the Saturday night timeframe as the front should have pushed east of the area by 12Z Sunday. High pressure moves into the area afterwards, allowing for cooler temperatures to persist for a bit once this system moves offshore. && .AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions are expected to prevail through at least Saturday morning. Breezy conditions possible each afternoon, with south to southwest winds gusting around 20-25 knots for several hours. A few thunderstorms are possible Thursday night into Friday, but coverage and impacts are forecast to be low. && .MARINE... New SCA has been issued for the main Chesapeake Bay channel from 18Z this afternoon to 00Z tonight. SCA conditions are possible each afternoon through Saturday as southerly channeling produces a few hours of wind gusts around 20 knots. Outside of that, winds remain generally at or below 10 knots. Some thunderstorms will be possible Thursday night into Friday, then again over the weekend as cold fronts track through the area. && .FIRE WEATHER... Winds and Min_Rh look too marginal for an SPS this afternoon. Thursday...Guidance show enough ingredients for a Red Flag Warning day with deep mixing, record breaking temperatures, and sufficiently low Rh's in the mid 20s. Potential for dewpoint bomb day given the deep mixing. Lastly, low MaxRh recoveries tonight/early Thu will drive Energy Release Component (ERC) very high making any wildfires to burn hotter and make containment and/or suppression efforts more difficult. Previous Fire Wx discussion... Elevated fire weather conditions are likely to continue across most of the area through Saturday. Each afternoon will bring well above normal temperatures in the 80s to low 90s, southwest winds gusting around 20-25 mph, and minimum RH values around 25-35 percent. Fire weather SPSs will likely be needed Thursday, with coordination from local fire partners and surrounding NWS offices to hone in on areas that are most sensitive. The ongoing lack of rain is going to continue to dry fine fuels, with fuel moistures decreasing a bit each successive day. Local showers and thunderstorms which have occurred across portions of northern Maryland and eastern West Virginia may provide a bit of reprieve in those areas. Thursday looks to be the most fire sensitive day due to a combination of RH values around 20-30 percent and wind gust around 20-25 mph in the afternoon. There is the potential for very dry air to mix down to the surface, this could possibly drop RH values below 20 percent in some areas. If these low RH values come to fruition, it is possible we could be close to Red Flag conditions. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday night into Friday, but coverage will be too low for any beneficial wetting rain. A strong cold front is set to cross the area Sunday, with cooler temperatures into next week. However, there is uncertainty regarding whether most of the area sees a wetting rain, it could be limited rainfall from this front. && .CLIMATE... Many daily records are likely to be broken this week, for both high temperatures and warm low temperatures. Some stations could tie or set their all-time high temperature and warm low temperature records for the month of April. April 14 LocationRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW Washington-National (DCA)91F (1960) 65F (2014) Washington-Dulles (IAD) 87F (1960) 63F (2014) Baltimore (BWI) 91F (1941) 65F (2018) Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 90F (1960) 67F (2018) Martinsburg (MRB) 87F (1960) 62F (2014) Charlottesville (CHO) 90F (1945) 67F (1899) Annapolis(NAK) 90F (1941) 65F (1977) Hagerstown (HGR) 86F (2024) 64F (2014) April 15 LocationRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW Washington-National (DCA)89F (1941) 65F (2023) Washington-Dulles (IAD) 87F (1967) 62F (2023) Baltimore (BWI) 88F (1941) 65F (1941) Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 92F (2024) 67F (1960) Martinsburg (MRB) 90F (1941) 63F (1967) Charlottesville (CHO) 92F (2024) 68F (1941) Annapolis(NAK) 91F (1941) 68F (1994) Hagerstown (HGR) 85F (1960) 61F (2023) April 16 LocationRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW Washington-National (DCA)92F (2002) 65F (2017) Washington-Dulles (IAD) 91F (2002) 63F (2017) Baltimore (BWI) 90F (2012) 66F (1941) Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 91F (2012) 65F (2012) Martinsburg (MRB) 90F (2002) 63F (2017) Charlottesville (CHO) 92F (1976) 67F (1941) Annapolis(NAK) 89F (2017) 70F (1994) Hagerstown (HGR) 88F (2002) 62F (2002) April 17 LocationRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW Washington-National (DCA) 95F (2002)65F (2002) Washington-Dulles (IAD) 93F (2002)59F (2024) Baltimore (BWI) 93F (2002)66F (1896) Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 95F (2002)66F (1976) Martinsburg (MRB) 93F (2002)60F (1941) Charlottesville (CHO) 94F (1976)65F (1976) Annapolis(NAK) 90F (1976)68F (1994) Hagerstown (HGR) 90F (2002)64F (2002) All-Time April Record Highs: Washington-National (DCA)95F 4/17/2002, 4/18/1976, 4/23/1960 4/27/1915 Washington-Dulles (IAD) 93F 4/6/2010, 4/17/2002, 4/25/1960 Baltimore (BWI) 94F 4/25/1960, 4/23/1960, 4/20/1941, 4/18/1896 Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 98F 4/26/1990, 4/22/1985 Martinsburg (MRB) 96F 4/21/1941 Charlottesville (CHO) 98F 4/24-25/1925 Annapolis(NAK) 95F 4/20/1941 Hagerstown (HGR) 94F 4/6/2010, 4/18/1976, 4/26/1915 All-Time April Record Warm-Lows: Washington-National (DCA)70F 4/29/2017 Washington-Dulles (IAD) 68F 4/27/2011 Baltimore (BWI) 70F 4/19/1896 Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 76F 4/26/1990 Martinsburg (MRB) 69F 4/19/2025 Charlottesville (CHO) 72F 4/26/1915 Annapolis(NAK) 70F 4/28/1994, 4/16/1994, 4/18/1896 Hagerstown (HGR) 69F 4/27/2009 && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this evening for MDZ008. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ530>534-539>541-543. && $$ DISCUSSION...AVS/LFR/KRR AVIATION...LFR/KRR MARINE...LFR/KRR  511 FXAK67 PAJK 151348 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 548 AM AKDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .SYNOPSIS... -Patchy fog dissipates through Wednesday morning. -Dry weather and clear skies on Wednesday. -Chances of showers return Wednesday night into Thursday, and remain through the first half of the weekend. && .SHORT TERM...The forecast remains on track. Drier weather remains across SE AK, as a weak mid-level ridge builds over the area. Clearer skies will allow for warmer daytime high temperatures, with highs reaching into the upper 40s or lower 50s while. Through the early morning hours on Wednesday, some patchy fog has developed across the Misty Fjords, PoW Island, and Petersburg. Drier weather will begin to wind down Wednesday evening as cloud cover builds back and a shortwave trough manages to move over the ridge axis and into the panhandle. This shortwave will increase precipitation chances across the northern outer coast and eventually spread into the rest of the panhandle, though precipitation is expected to remain light and mostly rain. See the long term discussion for more information. .LONG TERM...The low pressure from the short term will continue to remain over the northern Gulf for the start of the long term period. This will continue to bring showers to the panhandle. With the showers affecting the panhandle, the precipitation type will likely vary depending on the intensity of the shower as well as location in the panhandle. Icy Strait northward has a better chance of seeing a rain snow mix or straight snow while farther south, a mix or straight rain is more likely. These showers are expected to diminish going into Tuesday as the low ejects to the south and high pressure moves into the Gulf. This break is expected to be short though as another low is expected to move into the area. Ensembles roughly agree on this low forming just outside of the Prince William Sound area. GEFS and EPS ensemble guidance continues to show some disagreement on the placement of the surface low. Another concern with the low forming in this location will be how much moisture can it pick up before the precip moves into the area. Heading into the extended period, CPC guidance shows us moving towards cooler than normal temperatures and near to below normal precipitation. One thing that will have to be watched going forward during the entire long term period will be how much does the ever increasing daylight and sun angle affect temperatures across the panhandle. && .AVIATION...Drier weather keeps VFR conditions across much of the panhandle this morning, with the only impacts being some fog development over parts of the southern panhandle. This has brought Petersburg and Klawock down to 1/4 SM at times early this morning, and will keep VIS between 1/4 and 1SM into the next few hours before the fog begins to lift. Most of the fog will become patchy and less impactful to VIS later into this morning before fully lifting by 18z. VFR conditions will last through the rest of the TAF period for the southern half of the panhandle once any fog lifts. The northern panhandle will begin to see some precipitation move in this afternoon into the evening, though CIGs are not expected to begin to drop to MVFR until around 2 to 6z for the NE Gulf Coast with showers moving through associated with a weak shortwave tonight. Lowered CIGs bringing conditions down to MVFR will impact the Icy Strait Corridor area by around 8 to 10z Thursday as this feature moves E across the panhandle tonight. Winds will start as northerly and weaker this morning, before switching to be from the S as a push of southerly winds moves up Lynn Canal around 00z, with a period of 15 to 20 kt SE / S winds for Haines / Skagway with some gusty conditions associated, before winds begin to diminish by 04 to 06z tonight. Winds for Icy Strait Corridor will switch to become W into the morning with between 10 to 15 kt expected before also diminishing. && .MARINE... Outer Coastal Waters: Westerly fresh to strong breezes continue across the outer coastal waters on Wednesday. Wave heights of 4 to 5 ft in the northern gulf and 6 to 8 ft in the southern gulf will steadily decrease through the day on Wednesday to around 4 and 6 ft, with the higher wave height lingering in the SE Coastal waters. Winds will begin to turn more southeasterly as a system approaches through the northern gulf Wednesday night into Thursday. A barrier jet reaching strong breeze on Thursday is expected around the vicinity of Kayak Island. Inner Channels: Northerly winds have diminished through the overnight hours, although a few locations still maintain moderate breezes. Through Wednesday, winds will veer out of the S as the pressure gradient flips and a weak trough moves over the ridge in the Gulf and towards SE AK. Winds will build back to fresh breeze across many of the inner channels through Wednesday night, with some areas like Lynn Canal and Stephen's passage reaching strong breeze through that timeframe - potentially even earlier (through Wednesday afternoon). Winds remain out of the S through the weekend, strengthening on occasion when a shortwave moves through. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM AKDT this morning for AKZ326-328. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641-661-662. && $$ SHORT TERM...GFS LONG TERM...Contino AVIATION...GFS MARINE...GFS Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau  014 FXUS63 KABR 151350 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 850 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warming trend continues. Temperatures today top out in the 70s (15 to 20 degrees above normal) and Thursday into the upper 70s to mid 80s (15 to 30 degrees above normal). - The combination of warm temperatures and southerly winds of 25 to 30 miles per hour result in High to Very High Grassland Fire Danger Thursday. A Fire Weather Watch is also in effect for late Thursday morning into the late afternoon. - A cold front will move through the area Thursday night, leading to below normal temperatures (highs in the 40s) and precipitation Friday and Saturday. Precipitation starts out as rain Friday afternoon before transitioning to snow as colder air moves in. Overall not a lot of moisture with this system. && .UPDATE... Issued at 844 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Dense fog has dissipated this morning, and the Dense Fog Advisory in place over northeastern South Dakota and western Minnesota will be allowed to expire on time this morning. Also monitoring some light rain over that same area, as some surface observing stations have briefly reported -RA this morning. Showers may linger for the next hour or two before giving way to clear skies and/or scattered high clouds the rest of this morning and afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1242 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Isolated elevated shower activity early this morning, with BUFKIT profiles and regional observations indicating ceilings up around 8-10kft or higher. NAM BUFKIT profiles also indicate a fairly dry layer of air below, so that will really limit what reaches the surface. Added sprinkles through the overnight. CAMS are also highlighting the northeast for another round of fog formation, and we've already seen Wheaton down to 1/4 mile. For Today, the weak wave responsible for the ongoing activity has shifted into western Minnesota, with a second wave over central Nebraska, both heading northeast with the influence now east of the CWA. We end up in broadly diffluent flow aloft as a stronger wave comes into the Pacific northwest. Good mixing conditions for the day with a light southwest component to the winds. HREF probability of exceeding 20 mph only tops out at 20-40% for a few hours in the morning when we first mix out, then drops to zero. NBM deterministic highs are about 1 to 4F below the 50th percentile, and with ample sun and mixing winds, bumped temperatures up. Afternoon humidity across much of the area will be from 20 to 30%, and the HREF probability of falling below 20% is actually from 40 to 60% across our west river counties. But again, winds are going to fall well below criteria for Red Flag. Across the east, mainly the far northeast, NAM BUFKIT profiles also indicate some weak/shallow convective instability. Profiles suggest convection limited to between 5 and 10kft which may be enough to generate moisture. CAMS only have a few blips. Have added a 20% chance up across the northeast. Wednesday night, flow aloft continues to be diffluent, resulting in a lee low forming over eastern WY/MT and the western Dakotas. This increased the gradient, though only about 10mb across the state. Increased flow is southerly, with 1/2km winds of 25 to 40kts. There will also be warm advection through the overnight hours, though no elevated instability is indicated in the NAM. As we continue into Thursday, flow aloft is southwesterly, with southwesterly low level flow, though the lee low weakens into more of an inverted trough stretching northeast to southwest across the state. Inverted V style profiles are depicted by the NAM, with a few j/kg CAPE above the 0C level, up around 12kft. No POPs with this profile, but along with the system derived winds being strong, this may add additional gustiness as a fire weather wrinkle. As for temperatures Thursday, again, NBM falls around the 10th percentile, with a 5 to 8 degree cool bias vs the NBM 50th percentile. This again is likely due to a significant thermal gradient across northwest South Dakota and south central North Dakota and the array of possible ensemble placements. Winds for most of the area during the day are also in a warm advection regime, meaning the NBM should provide the cap for highest wind gusts (outside of the aforementioned convection) so this will give us a good idea of whether we'll meet Red Flag. NBM gives us 50 to 70% probability to exceed 25 mph and a 30 to 50% probability for winds in excess of 30 mph. That means the potential for a fairly widespread Red Flag wind wise. For afternoon humidity, the deterministic NBM is around 20 to 25% with the far northwest and northeast up over 30%. Cold front moves through during the overnight hours, with a wind shift and increase. Strongest pressure rises are out in western South Dakota, but the gradient from southeast to northwest is about 16 to 20 mb. NAM/GFS BUFKIT profiles indicate status follows, with mixed winds in the 25 to 35kt range. Concern is that any ongoing fires will experience a sudden shift in trajectory. The gradient persists through Friday, at about 20mb across the state, keeping winds up. We still go from a standard deviation above climo for 850mb temperatures Thursday to a standard deviation below climo by Saturday, with a 30-40 degree temperature difference between highs Thursday in comparison to Friday/Saturday. Trends for moisture: NBM POPs have dropped, and shifted the total moisture west. Still only averaging a tenth of an inch or less. GEFS is likewise a tenth or two, with a few blip up around a half inch. NBM probability of a 1/4 inch are also down, up north of Mobridge its only about 30-40% with lower elsewhere. Profiles still suggest a transition to snow as well, but with ground/air temps wouldn't expect it to last. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 551 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG Outside of morning LIFR to IFR fog at ATY, VFR conditions and winds around 12kts or less will continue over the next 24 hours. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for SDZ007-008- 011-020>023. Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for SDZ005>008-010-011-016>023-033>037-045-048- 051. MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MNZ039-046. && $$ UPDATE...BC DISCUSSION...07 AVIATION...06