012 FXUS63 KBIS 151501 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1001 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and dry today, with highs this afternoon from the mid 60s to mid 70s. - Wide range in temperatures from northwest to southeast Thursday as a cold front pushes into the state. - Turning much colder with periods of rain and snow Thursday night through Friday, with medium to high chances for light accumulations of snow. - Well below normal temperatures Friday through Saturday, followed by a gradual warm-up into early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1001 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 An eastward moving line of isolated radar echoes is present over central North Dakota. However, quite a bit of dry air is present off the surface, while ceilings associated with these returns are around 10 kft. Therefore, other than the potential for a few sprinkles, little to no rain is expected. UPDATE Issued at 630 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Generally quiet weather is found across western and central North Dakota this morning. Isolated showers from earlier overnight have generally diminished. In their wake, patchy fog has started to develop over portions of south central North Dakota into the James River Valley. An interrogation of BUFKIT soundings indicates that this fog is likely to be fairly shallow. Fog is generally expected to lift through the mid morning as the sun rises and the winds begin to pick up. Overall, the forecast remains on track. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 305 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A weak 500mb shortwave traversing the northern Plains this morning has helped propagate light rainfall across portions of south central North Dakota, main where it overlaps a weak surface trough. These light showers will continue to exit to the east through the mid morning. Otherwise, patchy fog is possible across portions of eastern North Dakota into the James River Valley, as well as in the Turtle Mountains area. Lows are from the mid 30s east to upper 30s to lower 40s west and central. Near zonal to increasingly southwesterly flow is expected over the northern Plains today as a closed Pacific trough moves across the southern Canadian Prairies. With this pattern highs well above normal are expected this afternoon, from the mid 60s northwest to mid 70s southeast. Mainly clear skies are expected southwest and central through the morning and afternoon, though cloud cover will increase from northwest to Southeast through the late afternoon and evening ahead of an approach low complex associated with the aforementioned Pacific trough. Low chances for precpitation (10 to 30 percent) will develop across the far northwest and far north central this evening into early tonight, as a shortwave perturbation ejecting off this trough slides up the southwesterly flow pattern. Lows tonight are forecast from the upper 20s to lower 30s north, to lower to mid 40s south. By mid morning Thursday, the main wave of precpitation associated with the low complex is expected to start moving into the northwest, increasing to become likely (50 to 75 percent) across much of the southwest and central) late Thursday afternoon and evening. With the timing of the associated cold front delayed until later in the afternoon, highs on Thursday are expected to remain above normal in the 60s to mid 70s across the south, while dropping to well below normal in the mid 30s to lower 40s across the far north. With the lingering warmth across much of the forecast area, precpitation is expected to fall initially as rain, before transitioning overnight to a rain-snow mix, then all snow, as temperatures drop. With short term CAMs staring to contribute to the ensemble, the NBM has dialed into a slightly slower evolution of the system as whole, allowing for lightly accumulating snowfall to be possible across much of the forecast area Thursday night through Friday. The greatest source of uncertainty between ensemble members appears to be the relative strength of the trough as it crosses the northern Plains, which has ramification on overall QPF and thus overall snowfall accumulation. A slight majority of members (55 percent) favor a shallower trough, while would help limit snowfall across the southwest and south central to around a dusting at most, up to around an inch or so in the far north central. A minority cluster also exists (45 percent of members), which advertises a slightly deeper or close trough over the forecast area through early Friday morning. In this scenario, the potential for portions of central North Dakota as far south as I- 94 to exceed an inch of snowfall is higher (30 to 50 percent), while portions of the far north central could exceed 2 inches overall (15 to 30 percent chance). In either scenario, overall impacts due to snowfall are expected to be limited. Otherwise, breezy to windy conditions are expected both Thursday and Friday as the pressure gradient across the northern Plains tightens with the passage of the low complex, though the potential for any sort of wind headlines during this period remains very low. With the much cooler airmass over the northern Plains on Friday, well below seasonable normal highs in the 30s to lower 40s are forecast. Warming and dry weather is then expected through the weekend and into early next week as upper level ridging builds in across the region, with highs climbing back into the 60s and 70s by Monday. Long term deterministic models hint at the breakdown of the upper level ridge and a return to a more active pattern by the midweek as another deep pacific trough moves into the western CONUS, though there remains significant disagreement between ensemble members regarding timing. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 630 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Mainly VFR ceilings and visibility can be found to begin the 12Z TAF period. Patchy ground fog has developed across portions of south central North Dakota this morning, and has briefly impacted visibilities at KJMS. Have included a TEMPO group for 3SM vis at KJMS through the mid morning, as it is expected to be fairly variable. Later this evening, chances for light rain increases across the northwest, before diminishing overnight. Have included a PROB30 group for KXWA with this update. Tonight into into Thursday, low level wind shear is possible across portions of the west and south central. Have included mentions of such as KDIK and KBIS with this update. Confidence is too low to include mentions of KXWA. Light south winds around 5 to 10 knots this morning will turn west southwesterly through the afternoon, strengthening to around 10 to 15 knots and gusting as high as 20 knots across the north. Winds will then diminish through the evening, turning cyclonically around a low pressure center that will move across the forecast area overnight before reorganizing out of the northwest by the end of the TAF period. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Telken DISCUSSION...Adam AVIATION...Adam  200 FXUS63 KMQT 151515 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 1115 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - The threat for flooding continues through the week due to snowmelt and potential showers and thunderstorms. A Flood Watch is in effect for everywhere except the far western UP through Thursday night. - Showers and storms may reach the central and eastern UP tonight into Thursday morning, with light totals below a quarter inch. - Showers and Thunderstorms are expected with a cold front Friday night into Saturday early morning. Widespread totals up to half an inch are becoming likely, but higher amounts are possible with a 10- 20% chance for totals in excess of an inch. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 255 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Earl this morning, a warm front remains draped across southern WI eastward through the central LP. Forcing along it has lead to more active weather across WI and the LP, but we remain well north of the excitement, up here on the cool side of the boundary. With plenty of low-level moisture courtesy of our melting snowpack and a sharp inversion, widespread fog is developing across the UP. This is dense at times, with several ASOS sites throughout the area reporting visibility well below a mile. Model soundings show limited chance of this mixing out even through sunrise, so the Dense Fog Advisory has been extended a couple of hours until 14Z. Heading into the daytime hours, once our fog mixes out, we should see some breaks of sunshine across the western UP Much like today temperatures will vary greatly across the U.P, with low 40s in the far north to the low 60s south, closer in proximity to the warm front. This, in combination with dewpoints in the 40s, will lead to increased snowmelt which in turn continues to pose a threat for flooding o rivers, small streams, creeks, and low-lying areas. Flood headlines remain intact. Another shortwave looks to ride along the boundary this evening into tonight, and though guidance increasingly limits PoPs to our south, with more of a glancing blow to the UP, some showers and storms still will not be ruled out across our area. This should leave us with rain totals of less than a quarter of an inch, with any isolated storms dropping higher amounts. A warmer stretch is expected for Thursday into Friday as a deep trough moves into the western U.S. Easterly winds will develop on Thursday, becoming southerly by Friday. This will bring the potential for some of the warmest temperatures thus far this spring, reaching into the 70s over the west (90% chance for temperatures over 70). The strengthening southerly winds, warm temperatures and higher dew points will accelerate the melting of the snowpack further with continued flooding concerns. More uncertainly exists for the weekend as the low pressure moves east along or north of Lake Superior. Slower solutions keep warmer air in the U.P. well into Saturday while faster solutions would bring a front through and much cooler temperatures by Saturday morning. Another round of rain and thunderstorms is likely to accompany the front. Behind the front it will be much cooler with snow showers possible Saturday night into Sunday. Some guidance still suggests a wet snowfall for the western U.P. NBM probabilities for 2" or more of wet snow in the west are around 20-40% Saturday night into Sunday. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 715 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Widespread LIFR/VLIFR fog is noted on area webcams and ASOS stations across the entire northern Great Lakes region under anomalous moisture and calm winds. As has been the case the previous night, thinking fog will slowly lift through the late morning into the early afternoon, first at IWD with CMX and SAW catching up. Light N to NW winds may cause upslope fog and low cigs to linger longer at CMX/SAW. MVFR/VFR cigs and vis expected through the afternoon with light winds once fog lifts. Widespread fog is once again anticipated tonight. && .MARINE... Issued at 255 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Light, stable flow is expected through Thursday with a weak pressure gradient over the area. Dense fog remains over much of the lake through this moring, slowly mixing out during the afternoon before expanding again tonight. Southerly winds will develop and increase on Friday ahead of a deepening low pressure, 30% chance for gales over the eastern lake. This low will push through over the weekend bringing a cold front and the potential for northwesterly gales (around 50% chance Saturday night into Sunday). && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 255 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 NOHRSC analysis showed the the snowpack had eroded over much of the southern and far western U.P. Over the north and east several inches to over a foot of SWE remained, greatest in the higher terrain. Snowmelt will continue through the week and accelerate late in the week as a warm, moist airmass moves into the U.P. Additional rain chances continue, with a slight chance for showers/storms tonight and higher confidence in another wave of rain Friday night. Rainfall tonight will likely be less than a quarter inch but heavier rainfall is possible for Friday night. NBM has a 10-20% chance for an inch of more of rainfall Friday night. Colder weather is expected for Saturday night and Sunday which should slow the melt of any remaining snow. Flooding in the wake of snowmelt and multiple heavy rain events continued over the south-central U.P. Tuesday. Though the snowpack is mostly gone in the south-central; swamps, creeks, low lying areas and rivers remain full/high and additional showers and thunderstorms are possible tonight. This could exacerbate the ongoing flooding though widespread heavy rainfall is not expected. For the north and east snowmelt and potential rainfall will continue the flooding threat though the week with the analysis and observations showing over a foot of SWE in the higher terrain. Rivers in the far western U.P. were beginning to fall and anticipate that the Flood Watch will be able to expire this morning. The Flood Watch remains in effect for all but the far western U.P. until Thursday night. This may need to be extended further in time with future updates as even warmer temperatures and higher dew points, along with increasing winds are expected for Thursday and Friday. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Flood Watch through late Thursday night for MIZ001-003>007- 010>014-084-085. Lake Superior... Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ Thursday for LSZ240>251-263>267. Lake Michigan... Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT Thursday for LMZ221-248-250. && $$ DISCUSSION...LC/NL AVIATION...BW MARINE...LC/NL HYDROLOGY...  293 FXUS63 KOAX 151545 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1045 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe thunderstorm chances continue in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa this afternoon and early evening. Large hail will be the primary concern, though damaging wind gusts and brief tornado remain possible. - Warm, dry and windy conditions will brining elevated fire weather concerns on Thursday, particularly in east-central Nebraska. - Additional severe thunderstorm chances are expected on Friday. Cooler air arrives Friday night into the weekend. Saturday and Sunday morning lows will dip below freezing for some locations, with highs only peaking in the 50s on Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1042 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Today and Tomorrow... An upper-level wave ejecting northward into the central Plains is pushing an attendant surface low, currently positioned in southeast Nebraska, northeastward into central Iowa through the day. This feature will draw a warm sector northward in eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa this afternoon with a weak convergent boundary draped generally along to just north of the I-80 corridor. Afternoon highs temperatures are expected to peak in the 70s. Instability will increase through the day, with a narrow ribbon of SBCAPE values exceeding 2500 J/kg wrapping into the mid-MO Valley. A few elevated supercells have already track across northeast Nebraska late this morning, producing severe hail. The main questions will be if the warm sector pushes eastward outside of the forecast area before surface base convection occurs. The latest CAM guidance varies with some members initiating storms near the Missouri River longitude, while others don't develop storms until the feature is further into western Iowa during the later afternoon hours. If surface based storms are able to initiate in the forecast area, an initial supercell storm mode is possible with large hail the primary hazard given mid-level lapse rates approaching 8-8.5 deg/km. An isolated tornado threat will also be possible with any surface based storm able to establish itself given sufficient low-level hodograph curvature and backing surface winds, especially near the aforementioned convergent boundary. Damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall will also be on the table. Additional chances for elevated supercells, with hail the primary hazard, will continue north of the low through the afternoon. A brief period of mid-level ridging will slide across the area on Thursday, bringing a short break from the severe weather potential along with the return of fire weather concerns. Afternoon highs temperatures are expected to peak in the 80s, approximately 15-20 degrees above climatological norms. Afternoon relative humidity values are expected to drop into the 15-35% range, with the lowest values expected towards east-central Nebraska. Gusty south- southwesterly winds of 20-30 mph tomorrow afternoon will help to elevate fire weather concerns, though confidence in winds reaching Red Flag Warning criteria is low. Most EPS/EPS-AIFS members keep winds capped around 30 mph. Additionally, RAP model soundings top out winds at the top of the mixed layer at 20-25 kts. Therefore, we are continuing the Fire Weather Watch for Thursday afternoon and evening. Friday and Beyond... Severe weather potential returns on Friday as an upper-level trough pushes into the central and northern Plains. An associated surface low is expected to push across Nebraska through the day, with an attendant cold front pushing eastward across the region. High temperatures will depend on where the cold front is before peak daytime heating, with values peaking in the 70s to low 80s ahead of the front and the 60s behind the front. Gusty northwesterly winds of 30-35 mph will move in behind the front. Convective initiation is expected along the cold front with strong forcing for ascent and ample instability ahead of the boundary. Yet again, the main question will be how quickly the front crashes through the area. SPC currently has far southeast Nebraska clipped in an Enhanced Risk (level 3 out of 5) with a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) draped further west. An initial supercell storm mode capable of all severe weather hazards looks probable for any storms that develop in the warm sector. We will have to see how things trend in regards to cold front placement into the afternoon as the system approaches. Any lingering precipitation will work its way out into Saturday morning, with a chance (10-20%) for a brief rain/snow mix on the back side of the departing precipitation shield. The post-frontal airmass will certainly be felt on Saturday, with morning lows temperatures dipping in the 30s, followed by afternoon highs topping out in the 50s. Lows again Sunday morning will drop near freezing for most locations, with the upper 20s expected across northeast Nebraska. Ensure any sensitive vegetation is protected and hoses are disconnected. Temperatures will gradually rebound later Sunday into early next week as mid-level ridging pivots into the central Plains. Highs on Sunday are expected in the 60s, rising to the 70s Monday and Tuesday. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 607 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Spotty showers and storms this morning are favored to remain out of the TAF sites. Higher chances arrive this afternoon at OFK, but guidance suggests higher storm chances will remain east of OMA and LNK for now. That said, still have a 20-30% chance from around 19-00Z. Otherwise, expect a band of MVFR ceilings at OMA and LNK this morning before they rise to VFR/scatter out this afternoon with only passing high clouds after (barring a storm). Expect northeasterly winds to become more northerly this morning, northwesterly this afternoon, and southwesterly this evening. Speeds should generally remain at or below 10 kts outside of any storms. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for NEZ011-012-015>018-030>033-042-043. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wood AVIATION...CA  368 FXUS64 KOHX 151547 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1047 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1027 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - There is an enhanced fire danger this afternoon due to dry fuels, low RH values and gusty winds. - Expect unseasonal warmth to last through Saturday. - There are medium to high rain/storm chances Thursday and Thursday evening, and again this weekend. Severe weather threat is low. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 1027 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 High pressure remains the dominant feature affecting Middle Tennessee's weather today, both at the surface and aloft. So we'll enjoy one more day of this stable and relatively dry air mass before the next active weather system brings some much-needed (but not nearly enough) rainfall to the mid state. A weak surface boundary currently situated to the northwest of Middle Tennessee will ease its way into the region later tonight and Thursday morning, so we can expect some late night and early morning showers. Temperatures tomorrow will still be quite warm, although not as warm as today. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1027 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A shortwave looks to push into Land-between-the-Lakes shortly after 00Z Thursday evening, and a convective cluster may accompany the shortwave. The HRRR has at times shown some storms affecting northwest portions of Middle Tennessee during the evening, hence the marginal risk from the SPC. While we cannot completely rule out a wind and hail threat, the risk of severe storms is very low during the early evening. And even that threat will diminish considerably as we lose our daytime heating. QPF values for tomorrow and tomorrow night remain underwhelming; most locations can expect no more than 1/4", although a few spots could see up to 1/2". Either way, it's not nearly enough to make up the growing rainfall deficit. Meanwhile, a much stronger cold front will sweep across Middle Tennessee on Saturday. The atmospheric models continue to depict the bulk of the convective activity Saturday and Saturday evening as post-frontal, so that's going to limit the severe potential. Current QPF values resulting from Saturday's cold front are close to 1/2" area-wide, which will certainly be welcome, but won't do much to alleviate our drought conditions. The primary impact from Saturday's cold front will be the significant drop in temperatures on the other side. Indeed, high temperatures on Sunday will only be in the 60s most areas, and Monday morning's low temperatures will range from the upper 30s to low 40s most areas. After that, look for a gradual warming trend throughout next week, with no appreciable rain chances until Thursday night or Friday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 511 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR condition for this TAF cycle. Much like the last couple of days, look for southwest wind gusts of 20-25 kts to pick up around 15Z/Wed and last through 00Z/Thu. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 86 65 81 61 / 0 0 70 40 Clarksville 87 66 79 61 / 0 30 80 40 Crossville 82 59 79 56 / 0 0 60 60 Columbia 85 63 82 59 / 0 0 60 40 Cookeville 82 61 79 59 / 0 0 70 50 Jamestown 83 59 79 56 / 0 0 70 50 Lawrenceburg 84 62 82 60 / 0 0 60 40 Murfreesboro 85 63 82 59 / 0 0 60 40 Waverly 86 65 79 61 / 0 20 80 40 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rose LONG TERM....Rose AVIATION.....Unger  674 FXUS64 KHUN 151557 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1057 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 323 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Low relative humidity values, dry fuels, and gusty winds will result in elevated fire weather conditions today. - There are low to medium chances (20-50%) of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday. - Medium chances (40-60%) of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 948 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Currently, mostly clear skies are in place with temperatures in the upper 50s to upper 60s with a calm to gentle breeze less than 15 mph from the southwest. Temperatures today will gradually warm with highs reaching the low to mid 80s this afternoon. Upper level ridging continues to push eastward later today. Winds will become a little more breezy this afternoon with speeds of 10-15 mph and locally higher gusts of 15-20 MPH. Tonight's low temperatures will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Saturday) Issued at 948 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 The upper level ridge continues pushing eastwards on Thursday resulting in a low to medium chance (10-40%) of showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening. Rain chances are higher (30-40%) for middle Tennessee and northeastern Alabama. The thunderstorms are not anticipated to be severe and will result in very little precipitation totals for most, generally less than 0.10. Aside from the rain, temperatures will be around 10 degrees warmer than normal with highs in the low to mid 80s. Overnight, temperatures will fall to the upper 50s and lower 60s. Dry conditions return on Friday and increasing temperatures reach the upper 80s to lower 90s across the Tennessee Valley which is around 13-16 degrees warmer than normal. The high temperatures Friday approach record highs set in 2006 of 90 degrees at HSV and 92 at MSL. Friday night temperatures will continue to be warm with lows in the low to mid 60s across the area. Be sure to drink plenty of water on Friday and take breaks in the shade. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 1040 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A deepening surface low is predicted to eject northeastward from Lake MI into the James Bay vicinity on Saturday/Saturday night in conjunction with a negatively-tilted shortwave (embedded within a broader trough extending from northern Canada into the southern Plains). Strengthening SSW flow is expected to occur throughout the cyclones warm sector, and will contribute to another warm day featuring highs in the mid 80s for our region. Latest extended range model data continues to suggest that showers and a few thunderstorms may develop by mid-day near a prefrontal surface trough extending from western KY into northern MS, and although some of this activity could spread eastward into the western portion of our CWFA late Saturday afternoon, it appears as if precipitation chances will be highest with passage of the cold front Saturday evening. Forecast soundings still depict a layer of warm/stable air aloft (rooted around 4-6 kft AGL) for much of the day, which should gradually begin to erode Saturday evening as a narrow axis of dewpoints in the l-m 60s surges northward ahead of the front and synoptic scale forcing for ascent strengthens ahead of the approaching 500-mb trough. Should an updraft become sufficiently tall to take advantage of mid-level flow that will be increasing to 50-60 knots, brief strong wind gusts may occur. However, at this point, we expect generally weak/low- topped convection, followed by a 2-4 hour period of light postfrontal rain, with rainfall amounts ranging from 0.10-0.25" (SE) to 0.5-0.75" (NW). Present indications are that rain will end around or shortly before 12Z Sunday in the southeastern portion of the forecast area, with gusty NNW winds advecting a cooler, drier airmass into the region throughout the day. Highs on Sunday will fall back into the m-u 60s (even with abundant sunshine), followed by cool overnight lows in the l-m 40s. Prevailing NW flow aloft to the east of a longwave ridge across the western CONUS will ensure a continuation of dry weather on Monday/Tuesday, although a couple of weak disturbances traveling through the ridge may result in an increase in mid/high-level clouds. Regardless, the onset of SE return flow will lead to a gradual warming trend with highs returning to the mid 70s by the end of the period. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1057 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR flight weather conditions are forecast. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...TG/17 SHORT TERM....TG/17 LONG TERM....70 AVIATION...17